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Sample records for local population dynamics

  1. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  2. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  3. Dynamics of a local badger (Meles meles) population in the Netherlands over the years 1983-2001

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apeldoorn, van R.C.; Vink, J.; Matyástík, T.

    2006-01-01

    Long-term data on badger population dynamics are scarce. For 19 years data on badger and sett numbers were collected by direct observation of a Local population in the province of Utrecht, the Netherlands. Analysis of these data show two different patterns of population growth. The first shows a

  4. Population dynamics at high Reynolds number

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perlekar, P.; Benzi, R.; Nelson, D.R.; Toschi, F.

    2010-01-01

    We study the statistical properties of population dynamics evolving in a realistic two-dimensional compressible turbulent velocity field. We show that the interplay between turbulent dynamics and population growth and saturation leads to quasi-localization and a remarkable reduction in the carrying

  5. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... differences in daily recruitment and within-patch survival rates. Males were most abundant relative to females early in the season, indicating protandry. Total adult population size was small and showed dramatic variation between the two years, indicating how vulnerable the local population is to demographic extinction.

  6. Reproductive and population dynamics parameters of Mbanza-Ngungu's local goat in Democratic Republic of Congo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Gasigwa Sabimana

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Prospects for the development of goat breeding in the Democratic Republic of Congo seem favorable. Knowledge of the characteristics of local goat farming by breeders is a very important factor to control and promote goat production. The objective of this study was to improve the productivity of Mbanza-Ngungu’s local goat by increasing the knowledge of its reproductive performance. To achieve this objective, data were collected by direct observation of the goats. These data were used to simulate reproductive and population dynamics parameters over a five-year period. The study showed the relevance of the model to simulate the reproduction traits of Mbanza-Ngungu’s goats and that it is useless to keep them beyond five years.

  7. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  8. Nonlinear Relaxation in Population Dynamics

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    Cirone, Markus A.; de Pasquale, Ferdinando; Spagnolo, Bernardo

    We analyze the nonlinear relaxation of a complex ecosystem composed of many interacting species. The ecological system is described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with a multiplicative noise. The transient dynamics is studied in the framework of the mean field theory and with random interaction between the species. We focus on the statistical properties of the asymptotic behaviour of the time integral of the ith population and on the distribution of the population and of the local field.

  9. Dynamical pruning of static localized basis sets in time-dependent quantum dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McCormack, D.A.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the viability of dynamical pruning of localized basis sets in time-dependent quantum wave packet methods. Basis functions that have a very small population at any given time are removed from the active set. The basis functions themselves are time independent, but the set of active

  10. Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

    2018-12-01

    An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

  11. The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

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    Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

    2002-01-01

    This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

  12. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  13. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  14. Control of dynamical localization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong Jiangbin; Woerner, Hans Jakob; Brumer, Paul

    2003-01-01

    Control over the quantum dynamics of chaotic kicked rotor systems is demonstrated. Specifically, control over a number of quantum coherent phenomena is achieved by a simple modification of the kicking field. These include the enhancement of the dynamical localization length, the introduction of classical anomalous diffusion assisted control for systems far from the semiclassical regime, and the observation of a variety of strongly nonexponential line shapes for dynamical localization. The results provide excellent examples of controlled quantum dynamics in a system that is classically chaotic and offer opportunities to explore quantum fluctuations and correlations in quantum chaos

  15. Population demographics of two local South Carolina mourning dove populations

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    McGowan, D.P.; Otis, D.L.

    1998-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) call-count index had a significant (P 2,300 doves and examined >6,000 individuals during harvest bag checks. An age-specific band recovery model with time- and area-specific recovery rates, and constant survival rates, was chosen for estimation via Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), likelihood ratio, and goodness-of-fit criteria. After-hatching-year (AHY) annual survival rate was 0.359 (SE = 0.056), and hatching-year (HY) annual survival rate was 0.118 (SE = 0.042). Average estimated recruitment per adult female into the prehunting season population was 3.40 (SE = 1.25) and 2.32 (SE = 0.46) for the 2 study areas. Our movement data support earlier hypotheses of nonmigratory breeding and harvested populations in South Carolina. Low survival rates and estimated population growth rate in the study areas may be representative only of small-scale areas that are heavily managed for dove hunting. Source-sink theory was used to develop a model of region-wide populations that is composed of source areas with positive growth rates and sink areas of declining growth. We suggest management of mourning doves in the Southeast might benefit from improved understanding of local population dynamics, as opposed to regional-scale population demographics.

  16. Local-scale dynamics and local drivers of bushmeat trade.

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    Nyaki, Angela; Gray, Steven A; Lepczyk, Christopher A; Skibins, Jeffrey C; Rentsch, Dennis

    2014-10-01

    Bushmeat management policies are often developed outside the communities in which they are to be implemented. These policies are also routinely designed to be applied uniformly across communities with little regard for variation in social or ecological conditions. We used fuzzy-logic cognitive mapping, a form of participatory modeling, to compare the assumptions driving externally generated bushmeat management policies with perceptions of bushmeat trade dynamics collected from local community members who admitted to being recently engaged in bushmeat trading (e.g., hunters, sellers, consumers). Data were collected during 9 workshops in 4 Tanzanian villages bordering Serengeti National Park. Specifically, we evaluated 9 community-generated models for the presence of the central factors that comprise and drive the bushmeat trade and whether or not models included the same core concepts, relationships, and logical chains of reasoning on which bushmeat conservation policies are commonly based. Across local communities, there was agreement about the most central factors important to understanding the bushmeat trade (e.g., animal recruitment, low income, and scarcity of food crops). These matched policy assumptions. However, the factors perceived to drive social-ecological bushmeat trade dynamics were more diverse and varied considerably across communities (e.g., presence or absence of collaborative law enforcement, increasing human population, market demand, cultural preference). Sensitive conservation issues, such as the bushmeat trade, that require cooperation between communities and outside conservation organizations can benefit from participatory modeling approaches that make local-scale dynamics and conservation policy assumptions explicit. Further, communities' and conservation organizations' perceptions need to be aligned. This can improve success by allowing context appropriate policies to be developed, monitored, and appropriately adapted as new evidence is

  17. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  18. Calculating evolutionary dynamics in structured populations.

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    Charles G Nathanson

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Evolution is shaping the world around us. At the core of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The outcome of an evolutionary process depends on population structure. Here we provide a general formula for calculating evolutionary dynamics in a wide class of structured populations. This class includes the recently introduced "games in phenotype space" and "evolutionary set theory." There can be local interactions for determining the relative fitness of individuals, but we require global updating, which means all individuals compete uniformly for reproduction. We study the competition of two strategies in the context of an evolutionary game and determine which strategy is favored in the limit of weak selection. We derive an intuitive formula for the structure coefficient, sigma, and provide a method for efficient numerical calculation.

  19. Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

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    Brooke E. Penaluna; Jason B. Dunham; Steve F. Railsback; Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Robert E. Bilby; Mohammad Safeeq; Arne E. Skaugset; James P. Meador

    2015-01-01

    Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of...

  20. Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

    2013-08-01

    A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline

  1. Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

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    Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

    In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three

  2. Population dynamics

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    Cooch, E. G.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Increases or decreases in the size of populations over space and time are, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change over time in the abundance of some population is the simple difference between the number of additions (individuals entering the population minus the number of subtractions (individuals leaving the population. Of course, the precise nature of the pattern and process of these additions and subtractions is often complex, and population biology is often replete with fairly dense mathematical representations of both processes. While there is no doubt that analysis of such abstract descriptions of populations has been of considerable value in advancing our, there has often existed a palpable discomfort when the ‘beautiful math’ is faced with the often ‘ugly realities’ of empirical data. In some cases, this attempted merger is abandoned altogether, because of the paucity of ‘good empirical data’ with which the theoretician can modify and evaluate more conceptually–based models. In some cases, the lack of ‘data’ is more accurately represented as a lack of robust estimates of one or more parameters. It is in this arena that methods developed to analyze multiple encounter data from individually marked organisms has seen perhaps the greatest advances. These methods have rapidly evolved to facilitate not only estimation of one or more vital rates, critical to population modeling and analysis, but also to allow for direct estimation of both the dynamics of populations (e.g., Pradel, 1996, and factors influencing those dynamics (e.g., Nichols et al., 2000. The interconnections between the various vital rates, their estimation, and incorporation into models, was the general subject of our plenary presentation by Hal Caswell (Caswell & Fujiwara, 2004. Caswell notes that although interest has traditionally

  3. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

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    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  4. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

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    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  5. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Lima

    Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  6. Local population structure of Plasmodium: impact on malaria control and elimination

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    Chenet Stella M

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Regardless of the growing interest in detecting population structures in malarial parasites, there have been limited discussions on how to use this concept in control programmes. In such context, the effects of the parasite population structures will depend on interventions’ spatial or temporal scales. This investigation explores the problem of identifying genetic markers, in this case microsatellites, to unveil Plasmodium genetic structures that could affect decisions in the context of elimination. The study was performed in a low-transmission area, which offers a good proxy to better understand problems associated with surveillance at the final stages of malaria elimination. Methods Plasmodium vivax samples collected in Tumeremo, Venezuela, between March 2003 and November 2004 were analysed. Since Plasmodium falciparum also circulates in many low endemic areas, P. falciparum samples from the same locality and time period were included for comparison. Plasmodium vivax samples were assayed for an original set of 25 microsatellites and P. falciparum samples were assayed for 12 microsatellites. Results Not all microsatellite loci assayed offered reliable local data. A complex temporal-cluster dynamics is found in both P. vivax and P. falciparum. Such dynamics affect the numbers and the type of microsatellites required for identifying individual parasites or parasite clusters when performing cross-sectional studies. The minimum number of microsatellites required to differentiate circulating P. vivax clusters differs from the minimum number of hyper-variable microsatellites required to distinguish individuals within these clusters. Regardless the extended number of microsatellites used in P. vivax, it was not possible to separate all individual infections. Conclusions Molecular surveillance has great potential; however, it requires preliminary local studies in order to properly interpret the emerging patterns in the context of

  7. Population Dynamics of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly in Montenegro

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    Sanja Radonjić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Population dynamics of the Mediterranean fruit fly was studied along Montenegro seacoast. Tephri traps baited with 3 component female-biased attractants were used in 11 different localities to monitor the fruit fly population in commercial citrus orchards, mixed-fruit orchards, and in backyards. From 2008–2010, the earliest captures were recorded no earlier than July. In 2011, the first adult fly was detected in mid-June. Low captures rates were recorded in July and August (below 0.5 flies per trap per day; FTD and peaked from mid-September to the end of October of each year. Our results indicate fluctuation of fly per trap per day depending on dates of inspection and locality, with significant differences in the adult population density. A maximum population was always reached in the area of Budva-Herceg Novi with an FTD of 66.5, 89.5, 71.63, and 24.64 (from 2008–2011 respectively. Fly activity lasts from mid-June/early-July to end December, with distinct seasonal variation in the population.

  8. Dynamics of change in local physician supply: an ecological perspective.

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    Jiang, H Joanna; Begun, James W

    2002-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to employ an ecological framework to identify factors that have an impact on change in local physician supply within the USA. A particular specialty type of patient care physicians in a local market is defined as a physician population. Four physician populations are identified: generalists, medical specialists, surgical specialists, and hospital-based specialists. Based on population ecology theory, the proposed framework explains the growth of a particular physician population by four mechanisms: the intrinsic properties of this physician population; the local market's carrying capacity, which is determined by three environmental dimensions (munificence, concentration, diversity); competition within the same physician population; and interdependence between different physician populations. Data at the level of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) were compiled from the US Area Resources File, the American Hospital Association Annual Surveys of Hospitals, the American Medical Association Census of Medical Groups, the InterStudy National HMO Census, and the US County Business Patterns. Changes in the number and percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population from 1985 to 1994 were regressed, respectively, on 1985-94 changes in the explanatory variables as well as their levels in 1985. The results indicate that the population ecology framework is useful in explaining dynamics of change in the local physician workforce. Variables measuring the three environmental dimensions were found to have significant, and in some cases, differential effects on change in the size of different specialty populations. For example, both hospital consolidation and managed care penetration showed significant positive eflects on growth of the generalist population but suppressing effects on growth of the specialist population. The percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population in 1985 was negatively related to change in the size

  9. High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

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    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2013-06-01

    Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

  10. Attractor dynamics in local neuronal networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Philippe eThivierge

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Patterns of synaptic connectivity in various regions of the brain are characterized by the presence of synaptic motifs, defined as unidirectional and bidirectional synaptic contacts that follow a particular configuration and link together small groups of neurons. Recent computational work proposes that a relay network (two populations communicating via a third, relay population of neurons can generate precise patterns of neural synchronization. Here, we employ two distinct models of neuronal dynamics and show that simulated neural circuits designed in this way are caught in a global attractor of activity that prevents neurons from modulating their response on the basis of incoming stimuli. To circumvent the emergence of a fixed global attractor, we propose a mechanism of selective gain inhibition that promotes flexible responses to external stimuli. We suggest that local neuronal circuits may employ this mechanism to generate precise patterns of neural synchronization whose transient nature delimits the occurrence of a brief stimulus.

  11. Artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic multi-population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ming; Ji, Zhicheng; Wang, Yan

    2017-07-01

    To improve the convergence rate and make a balance between the global search and local turning abilities, this paper proposes a decentralized form of artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm with dynamic multi-populations by means of fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering. Each subpopulation periodically enlarges with the same size during the search process, and the overlapping individuals among different subareas work for delivering information acting as exploring the search space with diffusion of solutions. Moreover, a Gaussian-based search equation with redefined local attractor is proposed to further accelerate the diffusion of the best solution and guide the search towards potential areas. Experimental results on a set of benchmarks demonstrate the competitive performance of our proposed approach.

  12. Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stepanov, Serguei [Optics Department, CICESE, km.107 carr. Tijuana-Ensenada, Ensenada, 22860, BC (Mexico)], E-mail: steps@cicese.mx

    2008-11-21

    Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

  13. Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepanov, Serguei

    2008-01-01

    Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

  14. Dynamical localization of two electrons in triple-quantum-dot shuttles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu, Jinxian; Duan, Suqing; Yang, Ning

    2012-01-01

    The dynamical localization phenomena in two-electron quantum-dot shuttles driven by an ac field have been investigated and analyzed by the Floquet theory. The dynamical localization occurs near the anti-crossings in Floquet eigenenergy spectrum. The oscillation of the quantum-dot shuttles may increase the possibility of the dynamical localization. Especially, even if the two electrons are initialized in two neighbor dots, they can be localized there for appropriate intensity of the driven field. The studies may help the understanding of dynamical localization in electron shuttles and expand the application potential of nanoelectromechanical devices. -- Highlights: ► The dynamical localization in electron shuttle is studied by Floquet theory. ► There is a relation between quasi-energy anti-crossings and dynamical localization. ► The oscillation of quantum dot increases the dynamical localization. ► Even the electrons are initialized in different dots, the localization can occur.

  15. Variation in the local population dynamics of the short-lived Opuntia macrorhiza (Cactaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haridas, C V; Keeler, Kathleen H; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

    2015-03-01

    Spatiotemporal variation in demographic rates can have profound effects for population persistence, especially for dispersal-limited species living in fragmented landscapes. Long-term studies of plants in such habitats help with understanding the impacts of fragmentation on population persistence but such studies are rare. In this work, we reanalyzed demographic data from seven years of the short-lived cactus Opuntia macrorhiza var. macrorhiza at five plots in Boulder, Colorado. Previous work combining data from all years and all plots predicted a stable population (deterministic log lamda approximately 0). This approach assumed that all five plots were part of a single population. Since the plots were located in a suburban-agricultural interface separated by highways, grazing lands, and other barriers, and O. macrorhiza is likely dispersal limited, we analyzed the dynamics of each plot separately using stochastic matrix models assuming each plot represented a separate population. We found that the stochastic population growth rate log lamdaS varied widely between populations (log lamdaS = 0.1497, 0.0774, -0.0230, -0.2576, -0.4989). The three populations with the highest growth rates were located close together in space, while the two most isolated populations had the lowest growth rates suggesting that dispersal between populations is critical for the population viability of O. macrorhiza. With one exception, both our prospective (stochastic elasticity) and retrospective (stochastic life table response experiments) analysis suggested that means of stasis and growth, especially of smaller plants, were most important for population growth rate. This is surprising because recruitment is typically the most important vital rate in a short-lived species such as O. macrorhiza. We found that elasticity to the variance was mostly negligible, suggesting that O. macrorhiza populations are buffered against large temporal variation. Finally, single-year elasticities to means

  16. Noise-induced effects in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando

    2002-03-01

    We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.

  17. Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

    2007-06-01

    Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

  18. Fish population dynamics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gulland, J. A

    1977-01-01

    This book describes how the dynamics of fish populations can be analysed in terms of the factors affecting their rates of growth, mortality and reproduction, with particular emphasis on the effects of fishing...

  19. Local Dynamic Stability Associated with Load Carrying

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2013-03-01

    Conclusion: Current study confirmed the sensitivity of local dynamic stability measure in load carrying situation. It was concluded that load carrying tasks were associated with declined local dynamic stability, which may result in increased risk of fall accident. This finding has implications in preventing fall accidents associated with occupational load carrying.

  20. Dynamical systems in population biology

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-01-01

    This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...

  1. Local Climate Heterogeneity Shapes Population Genetic Structure of Two Undifferentiated Insular Scutellaria Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiung, Huan-Yi; Huang, Bing-Hong; Chang, Jui-Tse; Huang, Yao-Moan; Huang, Chih-Wei; Liao, Pei-Chun

    2017-01-01

    Spatial climate heterogeneity may not only affect adaptive gene frequencies but could also indirectly shape the genetic structure of neutral loci by impacting demographic dynamics. In this study, the effect of local climate on population genetic variation was tested in two phylogenetically close Scutellaria species in Taiwan. Scutellaria taipeiensis , which was originally assumed to be an endemic species of Taiwan Island, is shown to be part of the widespread species S. barbata based on the overlapping ranges of genetic variation and climatic niches as well as their morphological similarity. Rejection of the scenario of "early divergence with secondary contact" and the support for multiple origins of populations of S. taipeiensis from S. barbata provide strong evolutionary evidence for a taxonomic revision of the species combination. Further tests of a climatic effect on genetic variation were conducted. Regression analyses show nonlinear correlations among any pair of geographic, climatic, and genetic distances. However, significantly, the bioclimatic variables that represent the precipitation from late summer to early autumn explain roughly 13% of the genetic variation of our sampled populations. These results indicate that spatial differences of precipitation in the typhoon season may influence the regeneration rate and colonization rate of local populations. The periodic typhoon episodes explain the significant but nonlinear influence of climatic variables on population genetic differentiation. Although, the climatic difference does not lead to species divergence, the local climate variability indeed impacts the spatial genetic distribution at the population level.

  2. Demographic source-sink dynamics restrict local adaptation in Elliott's blueberry (Vaccinium elliottii).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Jill T; Geber, Monica A

    2010-02-01

    In heterogeneous landscapes, divergent selection can favor the evolution of locally adapted ecotypes, especially when interhabitat gene flow is minimal. However, if habitats differ in size or quality, source-sink dynamics can shape evolutionary trajectories. Upland and bottomland forests of the southeastern USA differ in water table depth, light availability, edaphic conditions, and plant community. We conducted a multiyear reciprocal transplant experiment to test whether Elliott's blueberry (Vaccinium elliottii) is locally adapted to these contrasting environments. Additionally, we exposed seedlings and cuttings to prolonged drought and flooding in the greenhouse to assess fitness responses to abiotic stress. Contrary to predictions of local adaptation, V. elliottii families exhibited significantly higher survivorship and growth in upland than in bottomland forests and under drought than flooded conditions, regardless of habitat of origin. Neutral population differentiation was minimal, suggesting widespread interhabitat migration. Population density, reproductive output, and genetic diversity were all significantly greater in uplands than in bottomlands. These disparities likely result in asymmetric gene flow from uplands to bottomlands. Thus, adaptation to a marginal habitat can be constrained by small populations, limited fitness, and immigration from a benign habitat. Our study highlights the importance of demography and genetic diversity in the evolution of local (mal)adaptation.

  3. Subwavelength atom localization via coherent population trapping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agarwal, G S; Kapale, K T

    2006-01-01

    We present an atom localization scheme based on coherent population trapping. We consider atomic transitions in a Lambda configuration where the control field is a standing-wave field. The probe field and the control field produce coherence between the two ground states and prepare the atom in a pure state. We show that the population in one of the ground states has the same fringe pattern as produced by a Fabry-Perot interferometer and thus measurement of this population would localize the atom. Interestingly enough the role of the cavity finesse is played by the ratio of the intensities of the pump and probe. This is in fact the reason for obtaining extreme subwavelength localization

  4. Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakos, Vasilis; Glaser, Sarah M; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Sugihara, George

    2017-03-01

    Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress. © 2017 The Author(s).

  5. Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celik, C.; Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we study the stability analysis of equilibrium points of population dynamics with delay when the Allee effect occurs at low population density. Mainly, our mathematical results and numerical simulations point to the stabilizing effect of the Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

  6. Local Descriptors of Dynamic and Nondynamic Correlation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Cordoba, Eloy; Matito, Eduard

    2017-06-13

    Quantitatively accurate electronic structure calculations rely on the proper description of electron correlation. A judicious choice of the approximate quantum chemistry method depends upon the importance of dynamic and nondynamic correlation, which is usually assesed by scalar measures. Existing measures of electron correlation do not consider separately the regions of the Cartesian space where dynamic or nondynamic correlation are most important. We introduce real-space descriptors of dynamic and nondynamic electron correlation that admit orbital decomposition. Integration of the local descriptors yields global numbers that can be used to quantify dynamic and nondynamic correlation. Illustrative examples over different chemical systems with varying electron correlation regimes are used to demonstrate the capabilities of the local descriptors. Since the expressions only require orbitals and occupation numbers, they can be readily applied in the context of local correlation methods, hybrid methods, density matrix functional theory, and fractional-occupancy density functional theory.

  7. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  8. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  9. Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

    2018-02-01

    Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

  10. Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

  11. Population dynamics in variable environments

    CERN Document Server

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    1990-01-01

    Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

  12. Many-Body Localization Dynamics from Gauge Invariance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenes, Marlon; Dalmonte, Marcello; Heyl, Markus; Scardicchio, Antonello

    2018-01-01

    We show how lattice gauge theories can display many-body localization dynamics in the absence of disorder. Our starting point is the observation that, for some generic translationally invariant states, the Gauss law effectively induces a dynamics which can be described as a disorder average over gauge superselection sectors. We carry out extensive exact simulations on the real-time dynamics of a lattice Schwinger model, describing the coupling between U(1) gauge fields and staggered fermions. Our results show how memory effects and slow, double-logarithmic entanglement growth are present in a broad regime of parameters—in particular, for sufficiently large interactions. These findings are immediately relevant to cold atoms and trapped ion experiments realizing dynamical gauge fields and suggest a new and universal link between confinement and entanglement dynamics in the many-body localized phase of lattice models.

  13. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

  14. Dynamical localization in the 3-D kicked Rydberg atom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, E.; Yoshida, S.; Tong, X.-M.; Reinhold, C.; Burgdoerfer, J.

    2001-01-01

    Full text: The dynamical localization for the 3D periodically kicked Rydberg atom is analyzed. For the 1D kicked atom, earlier work shows dynamical localization as the quantum suppression of classically fast ionization associated with unbounded chaotic trajectories. The corresponding wave functions localize around unstable periodic orbits. For the experimental observation, the crucial question is the dependence of the dynamical localization on the dimension. As the first step, we simulate the full 3D evolution of an extreme parabolic initial state elongated in the direction of the unidirectional kicks. We compare this simulation with the 1D model and find signatures of localization also in 3D. We further examine the dependence of quantum localization on the parabolic quantum number of the initial state. In the limit of high kick frequencies, the origin of the localization can be understood in terms of Stark states in the average field. We discuss conditions for where an experimental observation of the localization is most likely. (author)

  15. Market Squid Population Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

  16. Dynamic localization in finite quantum dot superlattices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madureira, Justino R.; Schulz, Peter A.; Maialle, Marcelo Z.

    2004-01-01

    Full text: The dynamic properties of electrons and holes in low dimensional systems, driven by ac fields, reveal exciting emergent phenomena in the time span around the turn of the century. Such a rich scenario has been established by the concurrent development of powerful theoretical analysis tools, design and realization of high quality nano structured devices, as well as of tunable microwave and T Hz ac field sources. These striking developments made possible the exploration of the interaction of T Hz fields with condensed matter, leading even to biological tissue imaging. Therefore, a microscopic understanding of the T Hz field effects on designed nano structures constitute an important framework for further developments. A very interesting example in this context is the prediction of dynamic localization, which has been a subject of intense research in the past few years, from both theoretical and experimental point of views. The initial prediction states that, within a single band tight-binding approximation, an initially localized particle will return to its initial state following the periodical evolution of a driving pure sinusoidal field. This phenomenon can be simply visualized by the related collapse of the quasi energy mini bands, i.e., the localization of electronic states of a periodic unidimensional structure in real space driven by a field periodic in time. Such collapses occur whenever the field intensity/frequency ratio, eaF/(h/2π)ω, is a root of the zero-order Bessel function of the first kind. The quest for experimental signatures of dynamic localization is an involved task, since a variety of perturbations to an ideal situation is always present in real systems. The question that has to be answered is how the dynamic localization, related to the quasi-energy mini band collapses, may be identified in a context where concurring effects also tend to modify the quasi-energy spectra. For semiconductor superlattices, dynamic localization has been

  17. Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weide, van der R.Y.

    1993-01-01

    The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.

    A population dynamics model was developed to

  18. Effects of predation and dispersal on Mastomys natalensis population dynamics in Tanzanian maize fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vibe-Petersen, Solveig; Leirs, Herwig; de Bruyn, L

    2006-01-01

    ), excluding predators by nets and attracting avian predators by nest boxes and perch poles. Because dispersal of the rodents could mask the predation pressure treatment effects, control and predator exclusion treatments were repeated with enclosed rodent populations. 3.  Population growth during the annual...... risk. Reducing dispersal of rodents removed the effect of predation on population growth and peak size, suggesting that local predators may play a role in driving rodent dispersal, but have otherwise little direct effect on population dynamics....

  19. Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

    2018-01-01

    Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

  20. Field theoretic approach to dynamical orbital localization in ab initio molecular dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Jordan W.; Iftimie, Radu; Tuckerman, Mark E.

    2004-01-01

    Techniques from gauge-field theory are employed to derive an alternative formulation of the Car-Parrinello ab initio molecular-dynamics method that allows maximally localized Wannier orbitals to be generated dynamically as the calculation proceeds. In particular, the Car-Parrinello Lagrangian is mapped onto an SU(n) non-Abelian gauge-field theory and the fictitious kinetic energy in the Car-Parrinello Lagrangian is modified to yield a fully gauge-invariant form. The Dirac gauge-fixing method is then employed to derive a set of equations of motion that automatically maintain orbital locality by restricting the orbitals to remain in the 'Wannier gauge'. An approximate algorithm for integrating the equations of motion that is stable and maintains orbital locality is then developed based on the exact equations of motion. It is shown in a realistic application (64 water molecules plus one hydrogen-chloride molecule in a periodic box) that orbital locality can be maintained with only a modest increase in CPU time. The ability to keep orbitals localized in an ab initio molecular-dynamics calculation is a crucial ingredient in the development of emerging linear scaling approaches

  1. Mapping how local perturbations influence systems-level brain dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gollo, Leonardo L; Roberts, James A; Cocchi, Luca

    2017-10-15

    The human brain exhibits a distinct spatiotemporal organization that supports brain function and can be manipulated via local brain stimulation. Such perturbations to local cortical dynamics are globally integrated by distinct neural systems. However, it remains unclear how local changes in neural activity affect large-scale system dynamics. Here, we briefly review empirical and computational studies addressing how localized perturbations affect brain activity. We then systematically analyze a model of large-scale brain dynamics, assessing how localized changes in brain activity at the different sites affect whole-brain dynamics. We find that local stimulation induces changes in brain activity that can be summarized by relatively smooth tuning curves, which relate a region's effectiveness as a stimulation site to its position within the cortical hierarchy. Our results also support the notion that brain hubs, operating in a slower regime, are more resilient to focal perturbations and critically contribute to maintain stability in global brain dynamics. In contrast, perturbations of peripheral regions, characterized by faster activity, have greater impact on functional connectivity. As a parallel with this region-level result, we also find that peripheral systems such as the visual and sensorimotor networks were more affected by local perturbations than high-level systems such as the cingulo-opercular network. Our findings highlight the importance of a periphery-to-core hierarchy to determine the effect of local stimulation on the brain network. This study also provides novel resources to orient empirical work aiming at manipulating functional connectivity using non-invasive brain stimulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate

  3. feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sanchez

    Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the

  4. Sensitivity Analysis for Assessing Effects of Tree Population Dynamics on Soil Bioturbation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Y. E.; Johnson, E. A.

    2012-12-01

    Bioturbation due to tree root throw is thought to be an important process in soil production and soil mixing. Despite progress in our understanding of root throw processes, the tree population dynamics affecting the occurrence and timing of root throw events remain much less well explained. Unfortunately, research about forest dynamics is not always undertaken from the perspective of those interested in tree death, tree topple and associated root throw. As a result, the necessary field data about tree population dynamics is often unavailable for many locations. The acquisition of such data would allow for improved interpretation of root throw observations and for incorporation within numerical models of tree root throw occurrence. The present study uses our earlier tree population dynamics model calibrated for subalpine forests in the Canadian Rockies to test the sensitivity of forest parameters within the model that determine tree death, tree topple, root throw and soil bioturbation. Crown wildfire disturbance is the primary driver of tree population dynamics, with wind throw being mainly of local importance. The recruitment and mortality of trees during multiple generations of forest determine the number of live trees on the landscape at any given time. Tree death may occur due to competition/thinning of trees between wildfire events or as a result of the wildfire itself. Unless trees die due to sudden wind throw events (as mentioned above, this is only of local significance in our study area), they remain standing for some time period after tree death and before tree topple; these trees are referred to as standing dead trees. The duration of this time window and several other factors influence if a tree breaks at its base or upheaves a relatively intact root plate with attached sediment. Our field research has also suggested that a minimum dbh is required before a root plate is large enough to upheave notable amounts of sediment. Modelling results in this study

  5. Local and global measures of shape dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Driscoll, Meghan K; Losert, Wolfgang; Fourkas, John T

    2011-01-01

    The shape and motion of cells can yield significant insights into the internal operation of a cell. We present a simple, yet versatile, framework that provides multiple metrics of cell shape and cell shape dynamics. Analysis of migrating Dictyostelium discoideum cells shows that global and local metrics highlight distinct cellular processes. For example, a global measure of shape shows rhythmic oscillations suggestive of contractions, whereas a local measure of shape shows wave-like dynamics indicative of protrusions. From a local measure of dynamic shape, or boundary motion, we extract the times and locations of protrusions and retractions. We find that protrusions zigzag, while retractions remain roughly stationary along the boundary. We do not observe any temporal relationship between protrusions and retractions. Our analysis framework also provides metrics of the boundary as whole. For example, as the cell speed increases, we find that the cell shape becomes more elongated. We also observe that while extensions and retractions have similar areas, their shapes differ

  6. Relativistic Fluid Dynamics Far From Local Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romatschke, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Fluid dynamics is traditionally thought to apply only to systems near local equilibrium. In this case, the effective theory of fluid dynamics can be constructed as a gradient series. Recent applications of resurgence suggest that this gradient series diverges, but can be Borel resummed, giving rise to a hydrodynamic attractor solution which is well defined even for large gradients. Arbitrary initial data quickly approaches this attractor via nonhydrodynamic mode decay. This suggests the existence of a new theory of far-from-equilibrium fluid dynamics. In this Letter, the framework of fluid dynamics far from local equilibrium for a conformal system is introduced, and the hydrodynamic attractor solutions for resummed Baier-Romatschke-Son-Starinets-Stephanov theory, kinetic theory in the relaxation time approximation, and strongly coupled N =4 super Yang-Mills theory are identified for a system undergoing Bjorken flow.

  7. Local density inhomogeneities and dynamics in supercritical water: A molecular dynamics simulation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skarmoutsos, Ioannis; Samios, Jannis

    2006-11-02

    Molecular dynamics atomistic simulations in the canonical ensemble (NVT-MD) have been used to investigate the "Local Density Inhomogeneities and their Dynamics" in pure supercritical water. The simulations were carried out along a near-critical isotherm (Tr = T/Tc = 1.03) and for a wide range of densities below and above the critical one (0.2 rho(c) - 2.0 rho(c)). The results obtained reveal the existence of significant local density augmentation effects, which are found to be sufficiently larger in comparison to those reported for nonassociated fluids. The time evolution of the local density distribution around each molecule was studied in terms of the appropriate time correlation functions C(Delta)rhol(t). It is found that the shape of these functions changes significantly by increasing the density of the fluid. Finally, the local density reorganization times for the first and second coordination shell derived from these correlations exhibit a decreasing behavior by increasing the density of the system, signifying the density effect upon the dynamics of the local environment around each molecule.

  8. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zak Frentz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  9. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  10. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  11. Local Nucleosome Dynamics Facilitate Chromatin Accessibility in Living Mammalian Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saera Hihara

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Genome information, which is three-dimensionally organized within cells as chromatin, is searched and read by various proteins for diverse cell functions. Although how the protein factors find their targets remains unclear, the dynamic and flexible nature of chromatin is likely crucial. Using a combined approach of fluorescence correlation spectroscopy, single-nucleosome imaging, and Monte Carlo computer simulations, we demonstrate local chromatin dynamics in living mammalian cells. We show that similar to interphase chromatin, dense mitotic chromosomes also have considerable chromatin accessibility. For both interphase and mitotic chromatin, we observed local fluctuation of individual nucleosomes (∼50 nm movement/30 ms, which is caused by confined Brownian motion. Inhibition of these local dynamics by crosslinking impaired accessibility in the dense chromatin regions. Our findings show that local nucleosome dynamics drive chromatin accessibility. We propose that this local nucleosome fluctuation is the basis for scanning genome information.

  12. Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations

    OpenAIRE

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G.

    2009-01-01

    Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 7...

  13. Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shayegh, Soheil

    2017-11-01

    Climate change impacts may drive affected populations to migrate. However, migration decisions in response to climate change could have broader effects on population dynamics in affected regions. Here, I model the effect of climate change on fertility rates, income inequality, and human capital accumulation in developing countries, focusing on the instrumental role of migration as a key adaptation mechanism. In particular, I investigate how climate-induced migration in developing countries will affect those who do not migrate. I find that holding all else constant, climate change raises the return on acquiring skills, because skilled individuals have greater migration opportunities than unskilled individuals. In response to this change in incentives, parents may choose to invest more in education and have fewer children. This may ultimately reduce local income inequality, partially offsetting some of the damages of climate change for low-income individuals who do not migrate.

  14. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  15. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  16. POST-SOVIET PERIOD CHANGES IN RESOURCE UTILIZATION AND THEIR IMPACT ON POPULATION DYNAMICS IN CHUKOTKA AUTONOMOUS OKRUG (RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Litvinenko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines changes that have occurred in the resource utilization sector and the impact of these changes on population dynamics in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (Russia during the post-Soviet period. This paper discuss topics of population-dynamics-related differences that have emerged in the region and impacts of these differences on the use of natural resources and the ethnic composition of the population. Through this study, it was shown that changes have tended to be small in local areas where indigenous peoples who have engaged in traditional natural resource use for a large proportion of the population, while changes have been relatively large in areas where the proportion of non-indigenous people is high and the mining industry has developed.

  17. A local dynamic correlation function from inelastic neutron scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McQueeney, R.J.

    1997-01-01

    Information about local and dynamic atomic correlations can be obtained from inelastic neutron scattering measurements by Fourier transform of the Q-dependent intensity oscillations at a particular frequency. A local dynamic structure function, S(r,ω), is defined from the dynamic scattering function, S(Q,ω), such that the elastic and frequency-integrated limits correspond to the average and instantaneous pair-distribution functions, respectively. As an example, S(r,ω) is calculated for polycrystalline aluminum in a model where atomic motions are entirely due to harmonic phonons

  18. Allee effects on population dynamics in continuous (overlapping) case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.; Celik, C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a continuous population dynamics with delay under the Allee effect which occurs at low population density. The mathematical results and numerical simulations show the stabilizing role of the Allee effects on the stability of the equilibrium point of this population dynamics.

  19. Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Gress

    2011-01-01

    Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.

  20. Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

    2018-01-01

    There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

  1. Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-01-07

    Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

  2. Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

  3. Restoration of oyster reefs in an estuarine lake: population dynamics and shell accretion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas, Sandra M.; La Peyre, Jerome F.; La Peyre, Megan K.

    2015-01-01

    Restoration activities inherently depend on understanding the spatial and temporal variation in basic demographic rates of the species of interest. For species that modify and maintain their own habitat such as the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica, understanding demographic rates and their impacts on population and habitat success are crucial to ensuring restoration success. We measured oyster recruitment, density, size distribution, biomass, mortality and Perkinsus marinus infection intensity quarterly for 3 yr on shallow intertidal reefs created with shell cultch in March 2009. All reefs were located within Sister Lake, LA. Reefs were placed in pairs at 3 different locations within the lake; pairs were placed in low and medium energy sites within each location. Restored reefs placed within close proximity (biomass (>14.6 kg m-2) at the end of 3 yr. Shell accretion, on average, exceeded estimated rates required to keep pace with local subsidence and shell loss. Variation in recruitment, growth and survival drives local site-specific population success, which highlights the need to understand local water quality, hydrodynamics, and metapopulation dynamics when planning restoration.

  4. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  5. Heat exposure in cities: combining the dynamics of temperature and population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, L.; Wilhelmi, O.; Uejio, C. K.

    2017-12-01

    Assessment of human exposure to extreme heat requires the distributions of temperature and population. However, both variables are dynamic, thus presenting many challenges in capturing temperature and population patterns spatially and over time in an urban context. This study aims to improve the understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of urban population exposure to heat, taking Chicago, USA as an example. We estimate the hourly, geographically variable, population distribution considering commute of workers and students in a regular weekday and analyze the diurnal air temperature patterns during different meteorological conditions from satellite observations. The results show a relatively larger temperature increase in less urbanized areas during extreme heat events (EHEs), resulting in a spatially homogeneous temperature distribution over Chicago Metropolitan area. A lake cooling effect is weaker during EHEs. Population dynamics due to daily commute determine higher population density in more urbanized areas during daytime. The city-wide analysis reveals that the exposure is more sensitive to the nighttime temperature increases, and EHEs enhance this sensitivity. The high exposure hotspots are identified at the northwest Chicago, Cicero and Oak Park areas, where the influence from Lake Michigan is weakened, while the spatial extent of high outdoor exposure areas varies diurnally. This study's findings have potential to better inform general heat mitigation strategies during hot summer months and facilitate emergency response during EHEs. Availability of remotely-sensed temperature observations as well as the workers and students commute-adjusted population data allows for the adoption of this study's methodology in other major metropolitan areas. A better understanding of space-time patterns of urban population's exposure to heat will further enable local decision makers to mitigate extreme heat health risks and develop more targeted heat preparedness and

  6. Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain

    2016-01-01

    Non-stable populations exhibit short-term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long-term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non-stable populations is important for designing effective population management...... these methods to know exactly what is being measured. Despite a wealth of existing methods, I identify some areas that would benefit from further development....

  7. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λbounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  8. Population genetics models of local ancestry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravel, Simon

    2012-06-01

    Migrations have played an important role in shaping the genetic diversity of human populations. Understanding genomic data thus requires careful modeling of historical gene flow. Here we consider the effect of relatively recent population structure and gene flow and interpret genomes of individuals that have ancestry from multiple source populations as mosaics of segments originating from each population. This article describes general and tractable models for local ancestry patterns with a focus on the length distribution of continuous ancestry tracts and the variance in total ancestry proportions among individuals. The models offer improved agreement with Wright-Fisher simulation data when compared to the state-of-the art and can be used to infer time-dependent migration rates from multiple populations. Considering HapMap African-American (ASW) data, we find that a model with two distinct phases of "European" gene flow significantly improves the modeling of both tract lengths and ancestry variances.

  9. Retarded Local Dynamics of Single Fluorescent Probes in Polymeric Glass due to Interaction Strengthening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hao; Yang, Jingfa; Zhao, Jiang

    The effect of strengthening of interaction between single fluorescent probes and polymer matrix to the probes dynamics is investigated using single molecule fluorescence defocus microscopy. By introducing multiple hydroxyl groups to the fluorescent probes, which builds up hydrogen bonds between the probe and polymer matrix, the dynamics is discovered to be retarded. This is evidenced by the lowering of the frequency of the vibrational modes in the power spectra of the rotation trajectories of individual fluorescent probes, and also by the lowering of population of rotating probes. The results show that by strengthening the probe-matrix interaction, the local dynamics detected by the probes is equivalent to that detected by a bigger probe, due to the enhanced friction between the probe and the polymer matrix. the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB821500).

  10. Central-marginal population dynamics in species invasions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinfeng eGuo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The species’ range limits and associated central-marginal (C-M; i.e., from species range center to margin population dynamics continue to draw increasing attention because of their importance for current emerging issues such as biotic invasions and epidemic diseases under global change. Previous studies have mainly focused on species borders and C-M process in natural settings for native species. More recently, growing efforts are devoted to examine the C-M patterns and process for invasive species partly due to their relatively short history, highly dynamic populations, and management implications. Here I examine recent findings and information gaps related to (1 the C-M population dynamics linked to species invasions, and (2 the possible effects of climate change and land use on the C-M patterns and processes. Unlike most native species that are relatively stable (some even having contracting populations or ranges, many invasive species are still spreading fast and form new distribution or abundance centers. Because of the strong nonlinearity of population demographic or vital rates (i.e. birth, death, immigration and emigration across the C-M gradients and the increased complexity of species ranges due to habitat fragmentation, multiple introductions, range-wide C-M comparisons and simulation involving multiple vital rates are needed in the future.

  11. On a non-local gas dynamics like integrable hierarchy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunelli, Jose Carlos; Das, Ashok

    2004-01-01

    We study a new hierarchy of equations derived from the system of isentropic gas dynamics equations where the pressure is a non-local function of the density. We show that the hierarchy of equations is integrable. We construct the two compatible Hamiltonian structures and show that the first structure has three distinct Casimirs while the second has one. The existence of Casimirs allows us to extend the flows to local ones. We construct an infinite series of commuting local Hamiltonians as well as three infinite series (related to the three Casimirs) of non-local charges. We discuss the zero curvature formulation of the system where we obtain a simple expression for the non-local conserved charges, which also clarifies the existence of the three series from a Lie algebraic point of view. We point out that the non-local hierarchy of Hunter-Zheng equations can be obtained from our non-local flows when the dynamical variables are properly constrained. (author)

  12. Phenomenology of local scale invariance: from conformal invariance to dynamical scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henkel, Malte

    2002-01-01

    Statistical systems displaying a strongly anisotropic or dynamical scaling behaviour are characterized by an anisotropy exponent θ or a dynamical exponent z. For a given value of θ (or z), we construct local scale transformations, which can be viewed as scale transformations with a space-time-dependent dilatation factor. Two distinct types of local scale transformations are found. The first type may describe strongly anisotropic scaling of static systems with a given value of θ, whereas the second type may describe dynamical scaling with a dynamical exponent z. Local scale transformations act as a dynamical symmetry group of certain non-local free-field theories. Known special cases of local scale invariance are conformal invariance for θ=1 and Schroedinger invariance for θ=2. The hypothesis of local scale invariance implies that two-point functions of quasi primary operators satisfy certain linear fractional differential equations, which are constructed from commuting fractional derivatives. The explicit solution of these yields exact expressions for two-point correlators at equilibrium and for two-point response functions out of equilibrium. A particularly simple and general form is found for the two-time auto response function. These predictions are explicitly confirmed at the uniaxial Lifshitz points in the ANNNI and ANNNS models and in the aging behaviour of simple ferromagnets such as the kinetic Glauber-Ising model and the kinetic spherical model with a non-conserved order parameter undergoing either phase-ordering kinetics or non-equilibrium critical dynamics

  13. Coulomb interactions via local dynamics: a molecular-dynamics algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasichnyk, Igor; Duenweg, Burkhard

    2004-01-01

    We derive and describe in detail a recently proposed method for obtaining Coulomb interactions as the potential of mean force between charges which are dynamically coupled to a local electromagnetic field. We focus on the molecular dynamics version of the method and show that it is intimately related to the Car-Parrinello approach, while being equivalent to solving Maxwell's equations with a freely adjustable speed of light. Unphysical self-energies arise as a result of the lattice interpolation of charges, and are corrected by a subtraction scheme based on the exact lattice Green function. The method can be straightforwardly parallelized using standard domain decomposition. Some preliminary benchmark results are presented

  14. Mathematical modeling of an urban pigeon population subject to local management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haidar, I; Alvarez, I; Prévot, A C

    2017-06-01

    This paper addresses the issue of managing urban pigeon population using some possible actions that make it reach a density target with respect to socio-ecological constraints. A mathematical model describing the dynamic of this population is introduced. This model incorporates the effect of some regulatory actions on the dynamic of this population. We use mathematical viability theory, which provides a framework to study compatibility between dynamics and state constraints. The viability study shows when and how it is possible to regulate the pigeon population with respect to the constraints. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

    2018-03-25

    Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can

  16. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  17. Dynamical community structure of populations evolving on genotype networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capitán, José A.; Aguirre, Jacobo; Manrubia, Susanna

    2015-01-01

    Neutral evolutionary dynamics of replicators occurs on large and heterogeneous networks of genotypes. These networks, formed by all genotypes that yield the same phenotype, have a complex architecture that conditions the molecular composition of populations and their movements on genome spaces. Here we consider as an example the case of populations evolving on RNA secondary structure neutral networks and study the community structure of the network revealed through dynamical properties of the population at equilibrium and during adaptive transients. We unveil a rich hierarchical community structure that, eventually, can be traced back to the non-trivial relationship between RNA secondary structure and sequence composition. We demonstrate that usual measures of modularity that only take into account the static, topological structure of networks, cannot identify the community structure disclosed by population dynamics

  18. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  19. Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2016-01-01

    Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

  20. Non-local means denoising of dynamic PET images.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joyita Dutta

    Full Text Available Dynamic positron emission tomography (PET, which reveals information about both the spatial distribution and temporal kinetics of a radiotracer, enables quantitative interpretation of PET data. Model-based interpretation of dynamic PET images by means of parametric fitting, however, is often a challenging task due to high levels of noise, thus necessitating a denoising step. The objective of this paper is to develop and characterize a denoising framework for dynamic PET based on non-local means (NLM.NLM denoising computes weighted averages of voxel intensities assigning larger weights to voxels that are similar to a given voxel in terms of their local neighborhoods or patches. We introduce three key modifications to tailor the original NLM framework to dynamic PET. Firstly, we derive similarities from less noisy later time points in a typical PET acquisition to denoise the entire time series. Secondly, we use spatiotemporal patches for robust similarity computation. Finally, we use a spatially varying smoothing parameter based on a local variance approximation over each spatiotemporal patch.To assess the performance of our denoising technique, we performed a realistic simulation on a dynamic digital phantom based on the Digimouse atlas. For experimental validation, we denoised [Formula: see text] PET images from a mouse study and a hepatocellular carcinoma patient study. We compared the performance of NLM denoising with four other denoising approaches - Gaussian filtering, PCA, HYPR, and conventional NLM based on spatial patches.The simulation study revealed significant improvement in bias-variance performance achieved using our NLM technique relative to all the other methods. The experimental data analysis revealed that our technique leads to clear improvement in contrast-to-noise ratio in Patlak parametric images generated from denoised preclinical and clinical dynamic images, indicating its ability to preserve image contrast and high

  1. Non-local means denoising of dynamic PET images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Joyita; Leahy, Richard M; Li, Quanzheng

    2013-01-01

    Dynamic positron emission tomography (PET), which reveals information about both the spatial distribution and temporal kinetics of a radiotracer, enables quantitative interpretation of PET data. Model-based interpretation of dynamic PET images by means of parametric fitting, however, is often a challenging task due to high levels of noise, thus necessitating a denoising step. The objective of this paper is to develop and characterize a denoising framework for dynamic PET based on non-local means (NLM). NLM denoising computes weighted averages of voxel intensities assigning larger weights to voxels that are similar to a given voxel in terms of their local neighborhoods or patches. We introduce three key modifications to tailor the original NLM framework to dynamic PET. Firstly, we derive similarities from less noisy later time points in a typical PET acquisition to denoise the entire time series. Secondly, we use spatiotemporal patches for robust similarity computation. Finally, we use a spatially varying smoothing parameter based on a local variance approximation over each spatiotemporal patch. To assess the performance of our denoising technique, we performed a realistic simulation on a dynamic digital phantom based on the Digimouse atlas. For experimental validation, we denoised [Formula: see text] PET images from a mouse study and a hepatocellular carcinoma patient study. We compared the performance of NLM denoising with four other denoising approaches - Gaussian filtering, PCA, HYPR, and conventional NLM based on spatial patches. The simulation study revealed significant improvement in bias-variance performance achieved using our NLM technique relative to all the other methods. The experimental data analysis revealed that our technique leads to clear improvement in contrast-to-noise ratio in Patlak parametric images generated from denoised preclinical and clinical dynamic images, indicating its ability to preserve image contrast and high intensity details while

  2. An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model...

  3. Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekelund, F.; Frederiksen, Helle B.; Ronn, R.

    2002-01-01

    of the population may be encysted. The factors governing the dynamics of active and encysted cells in the soil are not well understood. Our objective was to determine the dynamics of active and encysted populations of ciliates during the decomposition of freshly added organic material. We monitored, in soil...... microcosms, the active and total populations of ciliates, their potential prey (bacteria and small protozoa), their potential competitors (amoebae, flagellates, and nematodes), and their potential predators (nematodes). We sampled with short time intervals (2 to 6 days) and generated a data set, suitable...

  4. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  5. DYNAMICS OF Cercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    DYNAMICS OFCercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED AGRO- ..... Population differentiation of Cercospora zeina in three districts of Uganda based on analysis of molecular variance ..... interactions: The example of the Erysiphe.

  6. Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

    2011-04-01

    The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  8. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA SPECIES ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    nb

    current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia ... and to the developing aquaculture industry ... B. Hotel. Pangani Island. Bongoyo Island. Mbudya Island. Msasani Bay ... Salinity values did not show clear trends.

  9. Alleles versus genotypes: Genetic interactions and the dynamics of selection in sexual populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neher, Richard

    2010-03-01

    Physical interactions between amino-acids are essential for protein structure and activity, while protein-protein interactions and regulatory interactions are central to cellular function. As a consequence of these interactions, the combined effect of two mutations can differ from the sum of the individual effects of the mutations. This phenomenon of genetic interaction is known as epistasis. However, the importance of epistasis and its effects on evolutionary dynamics are poorly understood, especially in sexual populations where recombination breaks up existing combinations of alleles to produce new ones. Here, we present a computational model of selection dynamics involving many epistatic loci in a recombining population. We demonstrate that a large number of polymorphic interacting loci can, despite frequent recombination, exhibit cooperative behavior that locks alleles into favorable genotypes leading to a population consisting of a set of competing clones. As the recombination rate exceeds a certain critical value this ``genotype selection'' phase disappears in an abrupt transition giving way to ``allele selection'' - the phase where different loci are only weakly correlated as expected in sexually reproducing populations. Clustering of interacting sets of genes on a chromosome leads to the emergence of an intermediate regime, where localized blocks of cooperating alleles lock into genetic modules. Large populations attain highest fitness at a recombination rate just below critical, suggesting that natural selection might tune recombination rates to balance the beneficial aspect of exploration of genotype space with the breaking up of synergistic allele combinations.

  10. Fast and Cache-Oblivious Dynamic Programming with Local Dependencies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bille, Philip; Stöckel, Morten

    2012-01-01

    are widely used in bioinformatics to compare DNA and protein sequences. These problems can all be solved using essentially the same dynamic programming scheme over a two-dimensional matrix, where each entry depends locally on at most 3 neighboring entries. We present a simple, fast, and cache......-oblivious algorithm for this type of local dynamic programming suitable for comparing large-scale strings. Our algorithm outperforms the previous state-of-the-art solutions. Surprisingly, our new simple algorithm is competitive with a complicated, optimized, and tuned implementation of the best cache-aware algorithm...

  11. The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

    2017-06-01

    Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

  12. Locality constrained joint dynamic sparse representation for local matching based face recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianzhong; Yi, Yugen; Zhou, Wei; Shi, Yanjiao; Qi, Miao; Zhang, Ming; Zhang, Baoxue; Kong, Jun

    2014-01-01

    Recently, Sparse Representation-based Classification (SRC) has attracted a lot of attention for its applications to various tasks, especially in biometric techniques such as face recognition. However, factors such as lighting, expression, pose and disguise variations in face images will decrease the performances of SRC and most other face recognition techniques. In order to overcome these limitations, we propose a robust face recognition method named Locality Constrained Joint Dynamic Sparse Representation-based Classification (LCJDSRC) in this paper. In our method, a face image is first partitioned into several smaller sub-images. Then, these sub-images are sparsely represented using the proposed locality constrained joint dynamic sparse representation algorithm. Finally, the representation results for all sub-images are aggregated to obtain the final recognition result. Compared with other algorithms which process each sub-image of a face image independently, the proposed algorithm regards the local matching-based face recognition as a multi-task learning problem. Thus, the latent relationships among the sub-images from the same face image are taken into account. Meanwhile, the locality information of the data is also considered in our algorithm. We evaluate our algorithm by comparing it with other state-of-the-art approaches. Extensive experiments on four benchmark face databases (ORL, Extended YaleB, AR and LFW) demonstrate the effectiveness of LCJDSRC.

  13. Locality constrained joint dynamic sparse representation for local matching based face recognition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhong Wang

    Full Text Available Recently, Sparse Representation-based Classification (SRC has attracted a lot of attention for its applications to various tasks, especially in biometric techniques such as face recognition. However, factors such as lighting, expression, pose and disguise variations in face images will decrease the performances of SRC and most other face recognition techniques. In order to overcome these limitations, we propose a robust face recognition method named Locality Constrained Joint Dynamic Sparse Representation-based Classification (LCJDSRC in this paper. In our method, a face image is first partitioned into several smaller sub-images. Then, these sub-images are sparsely represented using the proposed locality constrained joint dynamic sparse representation algorithm. Finally, the representation results for all sub-images are aggregated to obtain the final recognition result. Compared with other algorithms which process each sub-image of a face image independently, the proposed algorithm regards the local matching-based face recognition as a multi-task learning problem. Thus, the latent relationships among the sub-images from the same face image are taken into account. Meanwhile, the locality information of the data is also considered in our algorithm. We evaluate our algorithm by comparing it with other state-of-the-art approaches. Extensive experiments on four benchmark face databases (ORL, Extended YaleB, AR and LFW demonstrate the effectiveness of LCJDSRC.

  14. Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T

    2017-12-26

    Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  15. The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

    2011-11-01

    Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  16. Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brooke E Penaluna

    Full Text Available Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011, and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year, but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

  17. Participation Dynamics of Voters Using ID Card in Local Elections: A Case Study of the 2015 Local Election in South Sulawesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Ahmad Yani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The number of voters is an essential element in the legitimacy of a democratic regime. There are various factors that may influence voter turnout in elections; among other factors particularly is electoral management in voter’s registration. The problem of voters' data has always been a scourge in every general or local election due to poor population data management in Indonesia. Hence, the General Elections Commission (KPU responded to this issue with a number of policies to increase the number of voter participation in all elections, especially for those who have not been registered properly. The Commission made a specific regulation to allow voters who were not registered in the voter lists (DPS to use their ID card (KTP or other legal documents in voting. This study used qualitative methods in five regions in the South Sulawesi Province that conducted the 2015 local election. This study explores the dynamics of voters using ID card or other legal documents by identifying their reasons and characteristics in using KTP as well as examining the responses of the local election institutions regarding this policy. This condition tends to apply to countries in the transitional period of democracy where the electoral administration system has not been properly regulated. The causes include the failure of administrative systems of management and population data collection with e-KTP card system in Indonesia.

  18. Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Guihong; Thieme, Horst R; Zhu, Huaiping

    2015-11-01

    Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages.

  19. TWO-DIMENSIONAL LOCALIZATION OF ATOMIC POPULATIONS IN FOUR-LEVEL QUANTUM SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Efremova

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with investigation of one aspect of fundamental problem of laser radiation interaction with the matter. This problem is spatial localization of atomic populations due to fields impact of few running waves. We are the first to propose in our work two–dimensional spatial localization of atomic populations in medium with tripod–like configuration of levels under the field influence of running waves only. Three running waves, propagating along one plane 120o angle-wise to each other, form the system of standing waves in this plane. Atomic populations can be localized in the field of these standing waves. Moreover, the degree of such localization can make up hundredth parts of the wavelength of the incident optical radiation. It is shown that an excitation of the central transition of the tripod-like system using a field of multidirectional linearly polarized running waves is the necessary condition of the population dependence from spatial coordinates in the XY – plane. The two–dimensional shapes that appear in this system can have very complicated structure such as “double – craters”.

  20. Many-body localization dynamics from a one-particle perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lezama Mergold Love, Talia; Bera, Soumya; Bardarson, Jens Hjorleifur [Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    Systems exhibiting many-body localization (Anderson insulators in the presence of interactions) present a novel class of nonergodic phases of matter. The study of entanglement, in terms of both exact eigenstates and its time evolution after quenches, has been useful to reveal the salient signatures of these systems. Similarly to the entanglement entropy of exact eigenstates, the one-particle density matrix can be used as a tool to characterize the many-body localization transition with its eigenvalues showing a Fermi-liquid like step discontinuity in the localized phase. However, this analysis distinguishes the Fock-space structure of the eigenstates from the real space. Here, we present numerical evidence for dynamical signatures of the many-body localized phase for a closed fermionic system, using the one-particle density matrix and its time evolution after a global quench. We discuss and compare our results with the well-known logarithmic spreading of entanglement (a dynamical signature of this phase, absent in the Anderson insulator).

  1. LOCAL ENTROPY FUNCTION OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İsmail TOK

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we first,define the entropy function of the topological dynamical system and investigate basic properties of this function without going into details. Let (X,A,T be a probability measure space and consider P = { pl5p2,...,pn} a finite measurable partition of all sub-sets of topological dynamical system (X,T.Then,the quantity H (P = ^ zpt is called the i=1 entropy function of finite measurable partition P.Where f-1 log t if 0 0.If diam(P < s,then the quantity L^ (T = h^ (T - h^ (T,P is called a local entropy function of topological dynamical system (X,T . In conclusion, Let (X,T and (Y,S be two topological dynamical system. If TxS is a transformation defined on the product space (XxY,TxS with (TxS(x , y = (Tx,Sy for all (x,y X x Y.Then L ^^ (TxS = L^d(T + L (S .and, we prove some fundamental properties of this function.

  2. Extinction and recolonization of local populations on a growing shield volcano.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, H L; Lockwood, J P; Craddock, E M

    1990-01-01

    Volcanic action has resulted in the burial of the surfaces of Mauna Loa and Kilauea, Hawaii, by new lava flows at rates as high as 90% per 1000 years. Local populations of organisms on such volcanoes are continually being exterminated; survival of the species requires colonization of younger flows. Certain populations of the endemic Hawaiian species Drosophila silvestris exemplify such events in microcosm. Local populations at the base of an altitudinal cline were destroyed by two explosive eruptions within the last 2100 years. Natural recolonization restored the cline except for one young population that is genetically discordant with altitude. Images PMID:11607102

  3. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

  4. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  5. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  6. Dynamical local field, compressibility, and frequency sum rules for quasiparticles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morawetz, Klaus

    2002-01-01

    The finite temperature dynamical response function including the dynamical local field is derived within a quasiparticle picture for interacting one-, two-, and three-dimensional Fermi systems. The correlations are assumed to be given by a density-dependent effective mass, quasiparticle energy shift, and relaxation time. The latter one describes disorder or collisional effects. This parametrization of correlations includes local-density functionals as a special case and is therefore applicable for density-functional theories. With a single static local field, the third-order frequency sum rule can be fulfilled simultaneously with the compressibility sum rule by relating the effective mass and quasiparticle energy shift to the structure function or pair-correlation function. Consequently, solely local-density functionals without taking into account effective masses cannot fulfill both sum rules simultaneously with a static local field. The comparison to the Monte Carlo data seems to support such a quasiparticle picture

  7. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

  8. Comparative biology and population mixing among local, coastal and offshore Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and western Baltic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slotte, Aril; Johannessen, Arne; Kvamme, Cecilie; Clausen, Lotte Worsøe; Nash, Richard D. M.

    2017-01-01

    The population structure of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) from 13 local, coastal and offshore areas of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and western Baltic (northeast Atlantic) was studied using biological and environmental data from 1970–2015. The objective was to identify distinct populations by comparing variability in the temporal and spatial phenotypic characteristics and evaluate the potential for mixing of populations in time and space. The populations varied in biological characteristics such as mean vertebral counts (VS), growth and maturity ogives. Generalized additive models indicated temporally stable VS in the North Sea and western Baltic, whereas intra-annual temporal variation of VS occurred in other areas. High variability of VS within a population was not affected by environmental factors such as temperature and salinity. Consequently, seasonal VS variability can be explained by the presence or absence of herring populations as they migrate between areas. The three main populations identified in this paper correspond to the three managed stocks in this area: Norwegian spring spawners (NSS), western Baltic spring spawners (WBSS) and North Sea autumn spawners (NSAS). In addition, several local populations were identified in fjords or lakes along the coast, but our analyses could not detect direct mixing of local populations with the three main populations. Our results highlight the importance of recognizing herring dynamics and understanding the mixing of populations as a challenge for management of herring. PMID:29084258

  9. Use of Local Dynamic Electricity Prices for Indirect Control of DER Power Units

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgård, Per Bromand; Isleifsson, Fridrik Rafn

    2013-01-01

    the grid voltage. The algorithms generating the local prices are dynamically adjusted according to the actual realised responses to the dynamic prices. Results are presented from an adapted version of the control principle implemented and tested in DTUs experimental research power system, SYSLAB, including...... wind power, solar power, flexible load and electrical storage. The local power price generation is based on the actual Nord Pool DK2 Spot prices on hourly basis as the quasi-stationary global electricity price, and the local SYSLAB's power exchange with the national grid as basis for the dynamic price...... system. A challenge is to find a cheap, simple and robust way to requests the proper power regulation by the DER power units. The use of broadcasted, dynamic power prices and volunteer responses is one option. The paper presents a proposal for and an illustration of advanced generation of local, dynamic...

  10. Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

  11. Growing massive black holes in a Local Group environment: the central supermassive, slowly sinking and ejected populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micic, Miroslav; Holley-Bockelmann, Kelly; Sigurdsson, Steinn

    2011-06-01

    We explore the growth of ≤107 M⊙ black holes that reside at the centres of spiral and field dwarf galaxies in a Local Group type of environment. We use merger trees from a cosmological N-body simulation known as Via Lactea 2 (VL-2) as a framework to test two merger-driven semi-analytic recipes for black hole growth that include dynamical friction, tidal stripping and gravitational wave recoil in over 20 000 merger tree realizations. First, we apply a Fundamental Plane limited (FPL) model to the growth of Sgr A*, which drives the central black hole to a maximum mass limited by the black hole Fundamental Plane after every merger. Next, we present a new model that allows for low-level prolonged gas accretion (PGA) during the merger. We find that both models can generate an Sgr A* mass black hole. We predict a population of massive black holes in local field dwarf galaxies - if the VL-2 simulation is representative of the growth of the Local Group, we predict up to 35 massive black holes (≤106 M⊙) in Local Group field dwarfs. We also predict that hundreds of ≤105 M⊙ black holes fail to merge, and instead populate the Milky Way halo, with the most massive of them at roughly the virial radius. In addition, we find that there may be hundreds of massive black holes ejected from their hosts into the nearby intergalactic medium due to gravitational wave recoil. We discuss how the black hole population in the Local Group field dwarfs may help to constrain the growth mechanism for Sgr A*.

  12. Dendritic slow dynamics enables localized cortical activity to switch between mobile and immobile modes with noisy background input.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroki Kurashige

    Full Text Available Mounting lines of evidence suggest the significant computational ability of a single neuron empowered by active dendritic dynamics. This motivates us to study what functionality can be acquired by a network of such neurons. The present paper studies how such rich single-neuron dendritic dynamics affects the network dynamics, a question which has scarcely been specifically studied to date. We simulate neurons with active dendrites networked locally like cortical pyramidal neurons, and find that naturally arising localized activity--called a bump--can be in two distinct modes, mobile or immobile. The mode can be switched back and forth by transient input to the cortical network. Interestingly, this functionality arises only if each neuron is equipped with the observed slow dendritic dynamics and with in vivo-like noisy background input. If the bump activity is considered to indicate a point of attention in the sensory areas or to indicate a representation of memory in the storage areas of the cortex, this would imply that the flexible mode switching would be of great potential use for the brain as an information processing device. We derive these conclusions using a natural extension of the conventional field model, which is defined by combining two distinct fields, one representing the somatic population and the other representing the dendritic population. With this tool, we analyze the spatial distribution of the degree of after-spike adaptation and explain how we can understand the presence of the two distinct modes and switching between the modes. We also discuss the possible functional impact of this mode-switching ability.

  13. The role of marine reserves in the replenishment of a locally-impacted population of anemonefish on the Great Barrier Reef

    KAUST Repository

    Bonin, Mary C.; Harrison, Hugo B.; Williamson, David H.; Frisch, Ashley J.; Saenz Agudelo, Pablo; Berumen, Michael L.; Jones, Geoffrey P.

    2015-01-01

    The development of parentage analysis to track the dispersal of juvenile offspring has given us unprecedented insight into the population dynamics of coral reef fishes. These tools now have the potential to inform fisheries management and species conservation, particularly for small fragmented populations under threat from exploitation and disturbance. In this study we resolve patterns of larval dispersal for a population of the anemonefish Amphiprion melanopus in the Keppel Islands (southern Great Barrier Reef). Habitat loss and fishing appear to have impacted this population and a network of no-take marine reserves currently protects 75% of the potential breeders. Using parentage analysis, we estimate that 21% of recruitment in the island group was generated locally, and that breeding adults living in reserves were responsible for 79% (31 out of 39) of these of locally-produced juveniles. Overall, the network of reserves was fully connected via larval dispersal; however one reserve was identified as a critical source of larvae for the island group. The population in the Keppel Islands also appears to be well-connected to other source populations at least 60 km away, given that 79% (145 out of 184) of the juveniles sampled remained unassigned in the parentage analysis. We estimated the effective size of the A. melanopus metapopulation to be 745 (582-993 95% CI) and recommend continued monitoring of its genetic status. Maintaining connectivity with populations beyond the Keppel Islands and recovery of local recruitment habitat, potentially through active restoration of host anemone populations, will be important for its long-term persistence.

  14. The role of marine reserves in the replenishment of a locally-impacted population of anemonefish on the Great Barrier Reef

    KAUST Repository

    Bonin, Mary C.

    2015-11-21

    The development of parentage analysis to track the dispersal of juvenile offspring has given us unprecedented insight into the population dynamics of coral reef fishes. These tools now have the potential to inform fisheries management and species conservation, particularly for small fragmented populations under threat from exploitation and disturbance. In this study we resolve patterns of larval dispersal for a population of the anemonefish Amphiprion melanopus in the Keppel Islands (southern Great Barrier Reef). Habitat loss and fishing appear to have impacted this population and a network of no-take marine reserves currently protects 75% of the potential breeders. Using parentage analysis, we estimate that 21% of recruitment in the island group was generated locally, and that breeding adults living in reserves were responsible for 79% (31 out of 39) of these of locally-produced juveniles. Overall, the network of reserves was fully connected via larval dispersal; however one reserve was identified as a critical source of larvae for the island group. The population in the Keppel Islands also appears to be well-connected to other source populations at least 60 km away, given that 79% (145 out of 184) of the juveniles sampled remained unassigned in the parentage analysis. We estimated the effective size of the A. melanopus metapopulation to be 745 (582-993 95% CI) and recommend continued monitoring of its genetic status. Maintaining connectivity with populations beyond the Keppel Islands and recovery of local recruitment habitat, potentially through active restoration of host anemone populations, will be important for its long-term persistence.

  15. Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

    2003-07-07

    A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.

  16. Population Dynamics and Cost-Benefit Analysis. An Attempt to Relate Population Dynamics via Lifetime Reproductive Success to Short-Term Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinbergen, J.M.; Balen, J.H. van; Drent, P.J.; Cavé, A.J.; Mertens, J.A.L.; Boer-Hazewinkel, J. den

    1987-01-01

    1. The aim of this article is to explore whether cost-benefit analysis of behaviour may help to understand the population dynamics of a species. The Great Tit is taken as an example. 2. The lifetime reproductive success in different populations of Great Tits amounts from 0.7 (Hoge Veluwe, Wytham) to

  17. Local Fitness Landscapes Predict Yeast Evolutionary Dynamics in Directionally Changing Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorter, Florien A; Aarts, Mark G M; Zwaan, Bas J; de Visser, J Arjan G M

    2018-01-01

    The fitness landscape is a concept that is widely used for understanding and predicting evolutionary adaptation. The topography of the fitness landscape depends critically on the environment, with potentially far-reaching consequences for evolution under changing conditions. However, few studies have assessed directly how empirical fitness landscapes change across conditions, or validated the predicted consequences of such change. We previously evolved replicate yeast populations in the presence of either gradually increasing, or constant high, concentrations of the heavy metals cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn), and analyzed their phenotypic and genomic changes. Here, we reconstructed the local fitness landscapes underlying adaptation to each metal by deleting all repeatedly mutated genes both by themselves and in combination. Fitness assays revealed that the height, and/or shape, of each local fitness landscape changed considerably across metal concentrations, with distinct qualitative differences between unconditionally (Cd) and conditionally toxic metals (Ni and Zn). This change in topography had particularly crucial consequences in the case of Ni, where a substantial part of the individual mutational fitness effects changed in sign across concentrations. Based on the Ni landscape analyses, we made several predictions about which mutations had been selected when during the evolution experiment. Deep sequencing of population samples from different time points generally confirmed these predictions, demonstrating the power of landscape reconstruction analyses for understanding and ultimately predicting evolutionary dynamics, even under complex scenarios of environmental change. Copyright © 2018 by the Genetics Society of America.

  18. Local population extinction and vitality of an epiphytic lichen in fragmented old-growth forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockinger, Erik; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-07-01

    The population dynamics of organisms living in short-lived habitats will largely depend on the turnover of habitat patches. It has been suggested that epiphytes, whose host plants can be regarded as habitat patches, often form such patch-tracking populations. However, very little is known about the long-term fate of epiphyte individuals and populations. We estimated life span and assessed environmental factors influencing changes in vitality, fertility, abundance, and distribution of the epiphytic lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria on two spatial scales, individual trees and forest patches, over a period of approximately 10 years in 66 old-growth forest fragments. The lichen had gone extinct from 7 of the 66 sites (13.0%) where it was found 10 years earlier, even though the sites remained unchanged. The risk of local population extinction increased with decreasing population size. In contrast to the decrease in the number of occupied trees and sites, the mean area of the lichen per tree increased by 43.0%. The number of trees with fertile ramets of L. pulmonaria increased from 7 (approximately 1%) to 61 (approximately 10%) trees, and the number of forest fragments with fertile ramets increased from 4 to 23 fragments. The mean annual rate of L. pulmonaria extinction at the tree level was estimated to be 2.52%, translating into an expected lifetime of 39.7 years. This disappearance rate is higher than estimated mortality rates for potential host trees. The risk of extinction at the tree level was significantly positively related to tree circumference and differed between tree species. The probability of presence of fertile ramets increased significantly with local population size. Our results show a long expected lifetime of Lobaria pulmonaria ramets on individual trees and a recent increase in vitality, probably due to decreasing air pollution. The population is, however, declining slowly even though remaining stands are left uncut, which we interpret as an

  19. Local and global dynamical effects of dark energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernin, A. D.

    Local expansion flows of galaxies were discovered by Lemaitre and Hubble in 1927-29 at distances of less than 25-30 Mpc. The global expansion of the Universe as a whole was predicted theoretically by Friedmann in 1922-24 and discovered in the 1990s in observations at truly cosmological distances of more than 1 000 Mpc. On all these spatial scales, the flows follow a (nearly) linear velocity-distance relation, known now as Hubble's law. This similarity of local and global phenomena is due to the universal dark energy antigravity which dominates the cosmic dynamics on both local and global spatial scales.

  20. Particle algorithms for population dynamics in flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perlekar, Prasad; Toschi, Federico; Benzi, Roberto; Pigolotti, Simone

    2011-01-01

    We present and discuss particle based algorithms to numerically study the dynamics of population subjected to an advecting flow condition. We discuss few possible variants of the algorithms and compare them in a model compressible flow. A comparison against appropriate versions of the continuum stochastic Fisher equation (sFKPP) is also presented and discussed. The algorithms can be used to study populations genetics in fluid environments.

  1. How Levins’ dynamics emerges from a Ricker metapopulation model

    KAUST Repository

    Elí as-Wolff, F.; Eriksson, Anders; Manica, A.; Mehlig, B.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the dynamics of metapopulations close to extinction is of vital importance for management. Levins-like models, in which local patches are treated as either occupied or empty, have been used extensively to explore the extinction dynamics of metapopulations, but they ignore the important role of local population dynamics. In this paper, we consider a stochastic metapopulation model where local populations follow a stochastic, density-dependent dynamics (the Ricker model), and use this framework to investigate the behaviour of the metapopulation on the brink of extinction. We determine under which circumstances the metapopulation follows a time evolution consistent with Levins’ dynamics. We derive analytical expressions for the colonisation and extinction rates (c and e) in Levins-type models in terms of reproduction, survival and dispersal parameters of the local populations, providing an avenue to parameterising Levins-like models from the type of information on local demography that is available for a number of species. To facilitate applying our results, we provide a numerical algorithm for computing c and e.

  2. How Levins’ dynamics emerges from a Ricker metapopulation model

    KAUST Repository

    Elías-Wolff, F.

    2015-09-24

    Understanding the dynamics of metapopulations close to extinction is of vital importance for management. Levins-like models, in which local patches are treated as either occupied or empty, have been used extensively to explore the extinction dynamics of metapopulations, but they ignore the important role of local population dynamics. In this paper, we consider a stochastic metapopulation model where local populations follow a stochastic, density-dependent dynamics (the Ricker model), and use this framework to investigate the behaviour of the metapopulation on the brink of extinction. We determine under which circumstances the metapopulation follows a time evolution consistent with Levins’ dynamics. We derive analytical expressions for the colonisation and extinction rates (c and e) in Levins-type models in terms of reproduction, survival and dispersal parameters of the local populations, providing an avenue to parameterising Levins-like models from the type of information on local demography that is available for a number of species. To facilitate applying our results, we provide a numerical algorithm for computing c and e.

  3. Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

    2015-12-01

    Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

  4. Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bariabagar, H

    1978-01-01

    2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

  5. North American Brant: Effects of changes in habitat and climate on population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, David H.; Reed, Austin; Sedinger, James S.; Black, Jeffrey M.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Castelli, Paul M.

    2005-01-01

    We describe the importance of key habitats used by four nesting populations of nearctic brant (Branta bernicla) and discuss the potential relationship between changes in these habitats and population dynamics of brant. Nearctic brant, in contrast to most geese, rely on marine habitats and native intertidal plants during the non-breeding season, particularly the seagrass, Zostera, and the macroalgae, Ulva. Atlantic and Eastern High Arctic brant have experienced the greatest degradation of their winter habitats (northeastern United States and Ireland, respectively) and have also shown the most plasticity in feeding behavior. Black and Western High Arctic brant of the Pacific Flyway are the most dependent on Zostera, and are undergoing a shift in winter distribution that is likely related to climate change and its associated effects on Zostera dynamics. Variation in breeding propensity of Black Brant associated with winter location and climate strongly suggests that food abundance on the wintering grounds directly affects reproductive performance in these geese. In summer, salt marshes, especially those containing Carex and Puccinellia, are key habitats for raising young, while lake shorelines with fine freshwater grasses and sedges are important for molting birds. Availability and abundance of salt marshes has a direct effect on growth and recruitment of goslings and ultimately, plays an important role in regulating size of local brant populations. ?? 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  6. The Dynamics of the Local Group in the Era of Precision Astrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besla, Gurtina; Garavito-Camargo, Nicolas; Patel, Ekta

    2018-06-01

    Our understanding of the dynamics of our Local Group of galaxies has changed dramatically over the past few years owing to significant advancements in astrometry and our theoretical understanding of galaxy structure. New surveys now enable us to map the 3D structure of our Milky Way and the dynamics of tracers of its dark matter distribution, like globular clusters, satellite galaxies and streams, with unprecedented precision. Some results have met with controversy, challenging preconceived notions of the orbital dynamics of key components of the Local Group. I will provide an overview of this evolving picture of our Local Group and outline how we can test the cold dark matter paradigm in the era of Gaia, LSST and JWST.

  7. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  8. Learning Human Actions by Combining Global Dynamics and Local Appearance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Guan; Yang, Shuang; Tian, Guodong; Yuan, Chunfeng; Hu, Weiming; Maybank, Stephen J

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we address the problem of human action recognition through combining global temporal dynamics and local visual spatio-temporal appearance features. For this purpose, in the global temporal dimension, we propose to model the motion dynamics with robust linear dynamical systems (LDSs) and use the model parameters as motion descriptors. Since LDSs live in a non-Euclidean space and the descriptors are in non-vector form, we propose a shift invariant subspace angles based distance to measure the similarity between LDSs. In the local visual dimension, we construct curved spatio-temporal cuboids along the trajectories of densely sampled feature points and describe them using histograms of oriented gradients (HOG). The distance between motion sequences is computed with the Chi-Squared histogram distance in the bag-of-words framework. Finally we perform classification using the maximum margin distance learning method by combining the global dynamic distances and the local visual distances. We evaluate our approach for action recognition on five short clips data sets, namely Weizmann, KTH, UCF sports, Hollywood2 and UCF50, as well as three long continuous data sets, namely VIRAT, ADL and CRIM13. We show competitive results as compared with current state-of-the-art methods.

  9. Dynamics of Population on the Verge of Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Oborny, B.; Meszena, G.; Szabo, G.

    2005-01-01

    Theoretical considerations suggest that extinction in dispersal-limited populations is necessarily a threshold-like process that is analogous to a critical phase transition in physics. We use this analogy to find robust, common features in the dynamics of extinctions, and suggest early warning signals which may indicate that a population is endangered. As the critical threshold of extinction is approached, the population spontaneously fragments into discrete subpopulations and, consequently, ...

  10. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A Hostetler

    Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  11. [The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

  12. A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

  13. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  14. AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

  15. From coherent motion to localization: II. Dynamics of the spin-boson model with sub-Ohmic spectral density at zero temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Haobin; Thoss, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Graphical abstract: □□□ - Abstract: The dynamics of the spin-boson model at zero temperature is studied for a bath characterized by a sub-Ohmic spectral density. Using the numerically exact multilayer multiconfiguration time-dependent Hartree (ML-MCTDH) method, the population dynamics of the two-level subsystem has been investigated in a broad range of parameter space. The results show the transition of the dynamics from weakly damped coherent motion to localization upon increase of the system-bath coupling strength. Comparison of the exact ML-MCTDH simulations with the non-interacting blip approximation (NIBA) shows that the latter performs rather poorly in the weak coupling regime with small Kondo parameters. However, NIBA improves significantly upon increase in the coupling strength and is quantitatively correct in the strong coupling, nonadiabatic limit. The transition from coherent motion to localization as a function of the different parameters of the model is analyzed in some detail.

  16. Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2014-03-01

    Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...

  18. Preoperative localization of endocrine pancreatic tumours by intra-arterial dynamic computed tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlstroem, H.; Magnusson, A.; Grama, D.; Eriksson, B.; Oeberg, K.; Loerelius, L.E.; Akademiska Sjukhuset, Uppsala; Akademiska Sjukhuset, Uppsala

    1990-01-01

    Eleven patients with biochemically confirmed endocrine pancreatic tumours were examined with intra-arterial (i.a.) dynamic computed tomography (CT) and angiography preoperatively. Seven of the patients suffered from the multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN-1) syndrome. All patients were operated upon and surgical palpation and ultrasound were the peroperative localization methods. Of the 33 tumours which were found at histopathologic analysis of the resected specimens in the 11 patients, 7 tumours in 7 patients were correctly localized by both i.a. dynamic CT and angiography. Six patients with MEN-1 syndrome had multiple tumours and this group of patients together had 28 tumours, of which 5 (18%) were localized preoperatively by both CT and angiography. I.a. dynamic CT, with the technique used by us, does not seem to improve the localization of endocrine pancreatic tumours, especially in the rare group of MEN-1 patients, as compared with angiography. (orig.)

  19. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed

    2017-01-05

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.

  20. A Local Probe for Universal Non-equilibrium Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    shown are polarizing beam splitters . About 700µW are superimposed with a reference laser on a glass plate and coupled into an optical fiber to detect...A Local Probe for Universal Non -equilibrium Dynamics We report on the results obtained across a nine-month ARO-sponsored project, whose purpose was...to implement a local probe for a gas of ultracold atoms. We used a phase plate with a spiral phase gradient to create a hollow-core laser beam . This

  1. Coral reef degradation is not correlated with local human population density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, John F.; Valdivia, Abel

    2016-07-01

    The global decline of reef-building corals is understood to be due to a combination of local and global stressors. However, many reef scientists assume that local factors predominate and that isolated reefs, far from human activities, are generally healthier and more resilient. Here we show that coral reef degradation is not correlated with human population density. This suggests that local factors such as fishing and pollution are having minimal effects or that their impacts are masked by global drivers such as ocean warming. Our results also suggest that the effects of local and global stressors are antagonistic, rather than synergistic as widely assumed. These findings indicate that local management alone cannot restore coral populations or increase the resilience of reefs to large-scale impacts. They also highlight the truly global reach of anthropogenic warming and the immediate need for drastic and sustained cuts in carbon emissions.

  2. Population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es Salaam. Samples ...

  3. Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar

    2012-12-01

    The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long

    2014-05-06

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.

  5. On the population dynamics of the malaria vector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2005-10-01

    A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can establish itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing. (author)

  6. Bridging the Timescales of Single-Cell and Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafarpour, Farshid; Wright, Charles S.; Gudjonson, Herman; Riebling, Jedidiah; Dawson, Emma; Lo, Klevin; Fiebig, Aretha; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R.; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya

    2018-04-01

    How are granular details of stochastic growth and division of individual cells reflected in smooth deterministic growth of population numbers? We provide an integrated, multiscale perspective of microbial growth dynamics by formulating a data-validated theoretical framework that accounts for observables at both single-cell and population scales. We derive exact analytical complete time-dependent solutions to cell-age distributions and population growth rates as functionals of the underlying interdivision time distributions, for symmetric and asymmetric cell division. These results provide insights into the surprising implications of stochastic single-cell dynamics for population growth. Using our results for asymmetric division, we deduce the time to transition from the reproductively quiescent (swarmer) to the replication-competent (stalked) stage of the Caulobacter crescentus life cycle. Remarkably, population numbers can spontaneously oscillate with time. We elucidate the physics leading to these population oscillations. For C. crescentus cells, we show that a simple measurement of the population growth rate, for a given growth condition, is sufficient to characterize the condition-specific cellular unit of time and, thus, yields the mean (single-cell) growth and division timescales, fluctuations in cell division times, the cell-age distribution, and the quiescence timescale.

  7. Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Jonathan A; Dann, Benjamin; Scherberger, Hansjörg

    2016-11-01

    Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity.

  8. Local dynamics of glass-forming polystyrene thin films from atomistic simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yuxing; Milner, Scott

    Despite a wide technological application ranging from protective coatings to organic solar cells, there still no consensus on the mechanism for the glass transition in polymer thin films a manifestation of the infamous glass problem under confinement. Many experimental and computational studies have observed a large deviation of nanoscale dynamical properties in thin films from the corresponding properties in bulk. In this work, we perform extensive united-atom simulations on atactic polystyrene free-standing thin films near the glass transition temperature and focus on the effect of free surface on the local dynamics. We study the segmental dynamics as a function of distance from the surface for different temperatures, from which relaxation time and thereby local Tg is obtained for each layer. We find the dynamics near free surface is not only enhanced but becomes less strongly temperature dependent as Tg is approached compared to the bulk. We find an increasing length scale associated with mobility propagation from the free surface as temperature decreases, but no correlation between local structure and enhanced relaxation rates near the surface, consistent with studies on bead-spring chains.

  9. On non local elasticity and its relation with lattice dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idiodi, J.O.A.

    1984-11-01

    In this paper we have modelled a three-dimensional discrete lattice by a nonlocal continuum which possesses dispersive phonons. Previous efforts in the development of non-local theories appear not to have paid much attention to establishing actual contact with the nontrivial models frequently employed in lattice dynamics. As a first attempt in this direction, we present in this paper explicit results for the form of a non-local stress-tensor that describes exactly the lattice dynamical model of Gazis, Herman and Wallis. This model takes into account angular stiffness forces involving consecutive nearest neighbours forming a right angle at equilibrium. In addition, a general result for the surface eigenmodes of a semi-finite isotropic medium is derived. One of the justifications for this kind of study is the simpler approach it offers to the problems of interest in lattice dynamics. (author)

  10. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  11. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  12. The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2018-01-01

    Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

  13. Communication: Relationship between solute localization and diffusion in a dynamically constrained polymer system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saylor, David M.; Jawahery, Sudi; Silverstein, Joshua S.; Forrey, Christopher [Center for Devices and Radiological Health, FDA, Silver Spring, Maryland 20993 (United States)

    2016-07-21

    We investigate the link between dynamic localization, characterized by the Debye–Waller factor, 〈u{sup 2}〉, and solute self-diffusivity, D, in a polymer system using atomistic molecular dynamics simulations and vapor sorption experiments. We find a linear relationship between lnD and 1/〈u{sup 2}〉 over more than four decades of D, encompassing most of the glass formation regime. The observed linearity is consistent with the Langevin dynamics in a periodically varying potential field and may offer a means to rapidly assess diffusion based on the characterization of dynamic localization.

  14. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  15. Phase controllable dynamical localization of a quantum particle in a driven optical lattice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Navinder

    2012-01-01

    The Dunlap–Kenkre (DK) result states that dynamical localization of a driven quantum particle in a periodic lattice happens when the ratio of the field magnitude to the field frequency of the diagonal drive is a root of the ordinary Bessel function of order 0. This has been experimentally verified. A generalization of the DK result is presented here. The hitherto considered DK model contains only the diagonal forcing. In the present extended version of the DK model we consider both off-diagonal and diagonal driving fields with different frequencies and a definite relative phase between them. We analytically show that new dynamical localizations conditions exist where an important role is played by the relative phase. In appropriate limits our results reduce to DK result. -- Highlights: ► We give a generalization of the Dunlap–Kenkre result on dynamical localization. ► We consider the case of both off-diagonal and diagonal fields with a relative phase. ► We show that new dynamical localizations conditions exist. ► An important role is played by the hitherto neglected relative phase.

  16. Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanski, Ilkka A

    2011-08-30

    Demographic population dynamics, gene flow, and local adaptation may influence each other and lead to coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, especially in species inhabiting fragmented heterogeneous environments. Here, I review long-term research on eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly inhabiting a large network of approximately 4,000 meadows in Finland. The metapopulation persists in a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. The genetic spatial structure as defined by neutral markers is much more coarse-grained than the demographic spatial structure determined by the fragmented habitat, yet small-scale spatial structure has important consequences for the dynamics. I discuss three examples of eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics. (i) Extinction-colonization metapopulation dynamics influence allele frequency changes in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, which leads to strong associations between genetic variation in Pgi and dispersal, recolonization, and local population dynamics. (ii) Inbreeding in local populations increases their risk for extinction, whereas reciprocal effects between inbreeding, population size, and emigration represent likely eco-evolutionary feedbacks. (iii) Genetically determined female oviposition preference for two host plant species exhibits a cline paralleling a gradient in host plant relative abundances, and host plant preference of dispersing females in relation to the host plant composition of habitat patches influences immigration (gene flow) and recolonization (founder events). Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in heterogeneous environments may not lead to directional evolutionary changes unless the environment itself changes, but eco-evolutionary dynamics may contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation attributable to fluctuating selection in space and time.

  17. Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and distribution of coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were studied on Coffea arabica L. in southwestern region of Ethiopia. Thirty coffee trees were sampled at weekly intervals from 2000 to 2001. Findings of this study showed that coffee berry borer population ...

  18. [Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

    2014-09-01

    Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

  19. Liberia: local politics, state building and reintegration of populations

    OpenAIRE

    Jairo Munive

    2013-01-01

    Interventions aiming to assist IDPs and refugees returning homein fragile states would do well to take note of the local political and economic contexts in the aftermath of war, because these deeplyaffect the reintegration of war-affected populations.

  20. The significance and role of local self-governments in the population policy of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavrilović Ana

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Population should be in the central focus of local community institutions and the local community may constitute its population policy which will supplement state population policy measures, considering the local specific various traditions, values and models of living. The paper's basic goal is to critically perceive the characteristics, significance and role of local self-governments in the current population policy of Serbia. Social situation and social policy characteristics in Serbia are analyzed in the context of the population policy. It is pointed out that poverty, unemployment, the economic crisis, the process of privatization, the issue of system decentralization and social expectations of the population, as current expressions of transition, all have a consequence on the demographic development and population policy. A critical estimation of the activities in the field of population policies which are carried out by local and provincial self-governments in Serbia in the last decade are brought into focus, with a special review to the activities of provincial and local governments in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina. As a result of the analysis it is pointed out that the population and social policy measures have been separated since the year 2000 and that they have been directed only to stimulating births and not child raising and that solutions regarding maternity leave brought improvements, however shortened maternity leave for the third child. The new conception of the population policy brought a whole series of restrictions such as: suspension of aid for newborn essentials; discontinuance of the right to maternity allowance; abolishing of compensation for preschool expenses for the third child; children’s allowance lost its population measures character along with considerable tightening of the census and decreasing of amount; the activities of preschool facilities have been reduced only to an educational function, and the

  1. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population

  2. Social Information Links Individual Behavior to Population and Community Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Michael A; Hein, Andrew M; Spiegel, Orr; Baskett, Marissa L; Sih, Andrew

    2018-05-07

    When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Interaction quench dynamics in the Kondo model in the presence of a local magnetic field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heyl, M; Kehrein, S

    2010-09-01

    In this work we investigate the quench dynamics in the Kondo model on the Toulouse line in the presence of a local magnetic field. It is shown that this setup can be realized by either applying the local magnetic field directly or by preparing the system in a macroscopically spin-polarized initial state. In the latter case, the magnetic field results from a subtlety in applying the bosonization technique where terms that are usually referred to as finite-size corrections become important in the present non-equilibrium setting. The transient dynamics are studied by analyzing exact analytical results for the local spin dynamics. The timescale for the relaxation of the local dynamical quantities turns out to be exclusively determined by the Kondo scale. In the transient regime, one observes damped oscillations in the local correlation functions with a frequency set by the magnetic field.

  4. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R K P

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (N a and N b ) and preferred degree (κ a and κ b a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees (k bb ) and (k ab ) presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal N a = N b , the ratio of the restricted degree θ 0 = (k ab )/(k bb ) appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t 1 = κ b ) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ 0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t 1 2 ∝κ a and for which θ 0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ 0 = 3

  5. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  6. The population dynamical implications of male-biased parasitism in different mating systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Miller

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established 'two-sex' model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect of pathogenic disease at different case mortalities, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male-biased parasitism appears similar to unbiased parasitism in terms of its effect on the population dynamics. At higher case mortalities, we identified significant differences between male-biased and unbiased parasitism. A host population may therefore be differentially affected by male-biased and unbiased parasitism. The dynamical outcome is likely to depend on a complex interaction between the host's mating system and demography, and the parasite virulence.

  7. THE DYNAMICS OF FOOD RATIONS OF BRYANSK REGION POPULATION LIVING IN THE TERRITORIESCONTAMINATED AFTER THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. G. Travnikova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available During the years passed after the Chernobyl accident we are carrying out monitoring of the radiation situation in the Sough-Western territories of the Bryansk region, contaminated with the long-living radionuclides which includes 137Сs concentration measurements in agricultural and natural foodstuffs, surveys of local populations on the structure and composition of the diet accompanied with 137Сs content measurements in the human body. In the article the obtained data is systematized on the food rations of the adult population of theBryansk region, on food rations dynamics in the first and following years after the accident, which is necessary for the correct estimation of internal exposure doses of the population living on the contaminated territories.

  8. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus: a comparison between central and range edge populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita M Araújo

    Full Text Available Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental

  9. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): a comparison between central and range edge populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Rita M; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

    2014-01-01

    Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s)) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s) much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s) that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and

  10. Population Policy Adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Interplay of Global and Local Forces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robinson Rachel Sullivan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Sub-Saharan African countries have the highest population growth rates in the world, and are also the poorest. In response to a variety of global and local forces, during the 1980s and 1990s two thirds of sub- Saharan African countries adopted national population policies to reduce population growth. Drawing from existing research and using the texts of population policies to illustrate key points, this article summarises the factors that drove population policy adoption in the region. Globally, powerful donors with significant leverage promoted population policies as a solution to lagging socioeconomic development while international organizations spread norms about women’s rights and reproductive health. Locally, technocrats working within relevant ministries backed efforts to increase contraceptive prevalence, and population policies furthered political projects unrelated to population. The interplay of global and local forces led to governments adopting population policies. Ultimately, continued high desired fertility and limited implementation capacity have prevented population policies from significantly lowering fertility, but these policies have likely increased the availability of contraception, created important discursive space related to gender and sexuality, and provided countries with an opportunity to test procedures and approaches for policy-making on sensitive issues.

  11. Effects of wind farms on harbour porpoise behaviour and population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Tougaard, Jakob; Teilmann, Jonas

    We developed an individual-based simulation model in order to study the cumulative impacts of wind farms and ship traffic on the long-term survival and population dynamics of the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Kattegat and the Belt Seas. The model is based on knowl- edge of the porpoises...... at distances >1 km. Our simulations suggest that operating wind farms and wind farms under construction do not affect the size or dynamics of the harbour porpoise population in Kattegat. Ship traffic may, in contrast, cause the population size to decrease....

  12. Liberia: local politics, state building and reintegration of populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jairo Munive

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Interventions aiming to assist IDPs and refugees returning homein fragile states would do well to take note of the local political and economic contexts in the aftermath of war, because these deeplyaffect the reintegration of war-affected populations.

  13. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph G Makin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

  14. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  15. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

    2010-07-27

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  16. Radiation doses to local populations near nuclear weapons test sites worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Steven L; Bouville, André

    2002-05-01

    Nuclear weapons testing was conducted in the atmosphere at numerous sites worldwide between 1946 and 1980, which resulted in exposures to local populations as a consequence of fallout of radioactive debris. The nuclear tests were conducted by five nations (United States, Soviet Union, United Kingdom, France, and China) primarily at 16 sites. The 16 testing sites, located in nine different countries on five continents (plus Oceania) contributed nearly all of the radioactive materials released to the environment by atmospheric testing; only small amounts were released at a fewother minor testing sites. The 16 sites discussed here are Nevada Test Site, USA (North American continent), Bikini and Enewetak, Marshall Islands (Oceania); Johnston Island, USA (Oceania), Christmas and Malden Island, Kiribati (Oceania); Emu Field, Maralinga, and Monte Bello Islands, Australia (Australian continent); Mururoa and Fangataufa, French Polynesia (Oceania), Reggane, Algeria (Africa), Novaya Zemlya and Kapustin Yar, Russia (Europe), Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan (Asia), and Lop Nor, China (Asia). There were large differences in the numbers of tests conducted at each location and in the total explosive yields. Those factors, as well as differences in population density, lifestyle, environment, and climate at each site, led to large differences in the doses received by local populations. In general, the tests conducted earliest led to the highest individual and population exposures, although the amount of information available for a few of these sites is insufficient to provide any detailed evaluation of radiation exposures. The most comprehensive information for any site is for the Nevada Test Site. The disparities in available information add difficulty to determining the radiation exposures of local populations at each site. It is the goal of this paper to summarize the available information on external and internal doses received by the public living in the regions near each of the

  17. The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

    2013-01-01

    Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations

  18. Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

    1999-01-01

    The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

  19. SIR dynamics in structured populations with heterogeneous connectivity

    OpenAIRE

    Volz, Erik

    2005-01-01

    Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by describing the exact dynamical behavior of epidemics as they occur in random networks. A system of nonlinear differential equations is presented which describes the behavior of epidemics spreading through random networks with arbitrary degree distributions. ...

  20. An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duarte M.V.E.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

  1. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayank N Vahia

    Full Text Available Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction.We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era.We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

  2. Geography, European colonization, and past population dynamics in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Vaz Silva, Luis

    2005-01-01

    Past population dynamics in Africa have remained largely elusive due to the lack of demographic data. Researchers are understandably deterred from trying to explain what is not known and African historical population estimates suffer from this lack of interest. In this paper I explain present day African population densities using mostly ecological factors as explanatory variables. I find evidence supporting the view that ecological factors deeply affected precolonial patterns of human settle...

  3. Note: Local thermal conductivities from boundary driven non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bresme, F.; Armstrong, J.

    2014-01-01

    We report non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations of heat transport in models of molecular fluids. We show that the “local” thermal conductivities obtained from non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations agree within numerical accuracy with equilibrium Green-Kubo computations. Our results support the local equilibrium hypothesis for transport properties. We show how to use the local dependence of the thermal gradients to quantify the thermal conductivity of molecular fluids for a wide range of thermodynamic states using a single simulation

  4. Local stability of galactic discs in modified dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenavar, Hossein; Ghafourian, Neda

    2018-04-01

    The local stability of stellar and fluid discs, under a new modified dynamical model, is surveyed by using WKB approximation. The exact form of the modified Toomre criterion is derived for both types of systems and it is shown that the new model is, in all situations, more locally stable than Newtonian model. In addition, it has been proved that the central surface density of the galaxies plays an important role in the local stability in the sense that low surface brightness (LSB) galaxies are more stable than high surface brightness (HSBs). Furthermore, the growth rate in the new model is found to be lower than the Newtonian one. We found that, according to this model, the local instability is related to the ratio of surface density of the disc to a critical surface density Σcrit. We provide observational evidence to support this result based on star formation rate in HSBs and LSBs.

  5. Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

    2013-01-01

    Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

  6. Local vibrational dynamics of hematite (α-Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}) studied by extended x-ray absorption fine structure and molecular dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanson, A., E-mail: andrea.sanson@unipd.it [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia - Università di Padova, Padova (Italy); Mathon, O.; Pascarelli, S. [ESRF - European Synchrotron Radiation Facility, Grenoble (France)

    2014-06-14

    The local vibrational dynamics of hematite (α-Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}) has been investigated by temperature-dependent extended x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy and molecular dynamics simulations. The local dynamics of both the short and long nearest-neighbor Fe–O distances has been singled out, i.e., their local thermal expansion and the parallel and perpendicular mean-square relative atomic displacements have been determined, obtaining a partial agreement with molecular dynamics. No evidence of the Morin transition has been observed. More importantly, the strong anisotropy of relative thermal vibrations found for the short Fe–O distance has been related to its negative thermal expansion. The differences between the local dynamics of short and long Fe–O distances are discussed in terms of projection and correlation of atomic motion. As a result, we can conclude that the short Fe–O bond is stiffer to stretching and softer to bending than the long Fe–O bond.

  7. Effects of Lead Exposure, Environmental Conditions, and Metapopulation Processes on Population Dynamics of Spectacled Eiders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Petersen, Margaret; Rockwell, Robert F.

    2016-01-01

    subpopulation is independent and that future management actions may be improved through a metapopulation framework. For example, management actions could include displacement of breeding females from"sink" areas that reduce the growth potential of the population as a whole. However, this action is contingent upon dispersal among local populations, for which there is limited information. Thus, we recommend that researchers examine dispersal behavior among areas on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in western Alaska. The metapopulation framework could also be applied at the rangewide scale to address the density-dependent limitation of available polynya habitat during winter that may limit the recovery of small subpopulations, such as that on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Reductions in other subpopulations may be necessary to ensure an increase in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta population. Thus, we recommend that managers consider the interpopulation dynamics of spectacled eiders at different spatial scales in future management actions.

  8. Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazykin, Alexander D

    1998-01-01

    This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the

  9. An Empirical Study of AI Population Dynamics with Million-agent Reinforcement Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yaodong; Yu, Lantao; Bai, Yiwei; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Weinan; Wen, Ying; Yu, Yong

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on discovering the ordered collective dynamics obtained by a population of artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Our intention is to put AI agents into a simulated natural context, and then to understand their induced dynamics at the population level. In particular, we aim to verify if the principles developed in the real world could also be used in understanding an artificially-created intelligent population. To achieve this, we simulate a large-sc...

  10. Flexible body dynamics in a local frame with explicitly predicted motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kawamoto, A.; Krenk, Steen; Suzuki, A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with formulation of dynamics of a moving flexible body in a local frame of reference. In a conventional approach the local frame is normally fixed to the corresponding body and always represents the positions and angles of the body: the positions and angles are represented by Car...

  11. Local bifurcation analysis in nuclear reactor dynamics by Sotomayor’s theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pirayesh, Behnam; Pazirandeh, Ali; Akbari, Monireh

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • When the feedback reactivity is considered as a nonlinear function some complex behaviors may emerge in the system such as local bifurcation phenomenon. • The qualitative behaviors of a typical nuclear reactor near its equilibrium points have been studied analytically. • Comprehensive analytical bifurcation analyses presented in this paper are transcritical bifurcation, saddle- node bifurcation and pitchfork bifurcation. - Abstract: In this paper, a qualitative approach has been used to explore nuclear reactor behaviors with nonlinear feedback. First, a system of four dimensional ordinary differential equations governing the dynamics of a typical nuclear reactor is introduced. These four state variables are the relative power of the reactor, the relative concentration of delayed neutron precursors, the fuel temperature and the coolant temperature. Then, the qualitative behaviors of the dynamical system near its equilibria have been studied analytically by using local bifurcation theory and Sotomayor’s theorem. The results indicated that despite the uncertainty of the reactivity, we can analyze the qualitative behavior changes of the reactor from the bifurcation point of view. Notably, local bifurcations that were considered in this paper include transcritical bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation and pitchfork bifurcation. The theoretical analysis showed that these three types of local bifurcations may occur in the four dimensional dynamical system. In addition, to confirm the analytical results the numerical simulations are given.

  12. Distinct retrosplenial cortex cell populations and their spike dynamics during ketamine-induced unconscious state.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace E Fox

    Full Text Available Ketamine is known to induce psychotic-like symptoms, including delirium and visual hallucinations. It also causes neuronal damage and cell death in the retrosplenial cortex (RSC, an area that is thought to be a part of high visual cortical pathways and at least partially responsible for ketamine's psychotomimetic activities. However, the basic physiological properties of RSC cells as well as their response to ketamine in vivo remained largely unexplored. Here, we combine a computational method, the Inter-Spike Interval Classification Analysis (ISICA, and in vivo recordings to uncover and profile excitatory cell subtypes within layers 2&3 and 5&6 of the RSC in mice within both conscious, sleep, and ketamine-induced unconscious states. We demonstrate two distinct excitatory principal cell sub-populations, namely, high-bursting excitatory principal cells and low-bursting excitatory principal cells, within layers 2&3, and show that this classification is robust over the conscious states, namely quiet awake, and natural unconscious sleep periods. Similarly, we provide evidence of high-bursting and low-bursting excitatory principal cell sub-populations within layers 5&6 that remained distinct during quiet awake and sleep states. We further examined how these subtypes are dynamically altered by ketamine. During ketamine-induced unconscious state, these distinct excitatory principal cell subtypes in both layer 2&3 and layer 5&6 exhibited distinct dynamics. We also uncovered different dynamics of local field potential under various brain states in layer 2&3 and layer 5&6. Interestingly, ketamine administration induced high gamma oscillations in layer 2&3 of the RSC, but not layer 5&6. Our results show that excitatory principal cells within RSC layers 2&3 and 5&6 contain multiple physiologically distinct sub-populations, and they are differentially affected by ketamine.

  13. Properties of global- and local-ancestry adjustments in genetic association tests in admixed populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Eden R; Tunc, Ilker; Liu, Zhi; Slifer, Susan H; Beecham, Ashley H; Beecham, Gary W

    2018-03-01

    Population substructure can lead to confounding in tests for genetic association, and failure to adjust properly can result in spurious findings. Here we address this issue of confounding by considering the impact of global ancestry (average ancestry across the genome) and local ancestry (ancestry at a specific chromosomal location) on regression parameters and relative power in ancestry-adjusted and -unadjusted models. We examine theoretical expectations under different scenarios for population substructure; applying different regression models, verifying and generalizing using simulations, and exploring the findings in real-world admixed populations. We show that admixture does not lead to confounding when the trait locus is tested directly in a single admixed population. However, if there is more complex population structure or a marker locus in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with the trait locus is tested, both global and local ancestry can be confounders. Additionally, we show the genotype parameters of adjusted and unadjusted models all provide tests for LD between the marker and trait locus, but in different contexts. The local ancestry adjusted model tests for LD in the ancestral populations, while tests using the unadjusted and the global ancestry adjusted models depend on LD in the admixed population(s), which may be enriched due to different ancestral allele frequencies. Practically, this implies that global-ancestry adjustment should be used for screening, but local-ancestry adjustment may better inform fine mapping and provide better effect estimates at trait loci. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  14. Reconstructing populations dynamics: Mortality and recruitment of the southern geoduck Panopea abbreviata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaidman, Paula C.; Morsan, Enrique

    2018-05-01

    In the development of management measures for sustainable fisheries, estimating the natural mortality rate and recruitment are fundamental. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the southern geoduck, Panopea abbreviata, a long-lived clam that forms spatially disjunct subpopulations, supports an unregulated fishery. In this study, we estimate natural mortality. We studied the age structure of beds within the northern Patagonia gulfs, San Matías Gulf (SMG) and San Jose Gulf (SJG), and we estimated a time series for back-reconstructed recruitment to explore spatial coherence in relation to local oceanographic conditions and to elucidate its population dynamics. We constructed a cumulative frequency distribution of the age of dead shells collected and used the exponential and Weibull models to model mortality. Live geoducks were sampled from six populations between 2000 and 2006. Age-frequency distributions and mortality models were used to back-calculate the time series of recruitment for each population. The recruitment time series was analysed using continuous wavelet transform. The value of natural mortality estimated by the exponential model was 0.054 years-1, whereas those estimated by the Weibull model were α = 0.00085 years-1 and β = 2.1. For the latter, M values for cohorts were 0.01 for 10 years, 0.02 for 20 years, 0.04 for 30 years and 0.05 for 40 years. The Weibull model was observed to be the best fit to the data. The natural mortality rate of P. abbreviata estimated in this study was lower than that estimated in a previous work for populations from SMG. The back-calculated time series for recruitment demonstrated considerable yearly variation, suggesting that local conditions have an important role in recruitment regulation. At a decadal temporal scale, a clear increasing recruitment trend was evident over the last 20 years in all populations. Populations in SMG were settled >60 years ago. In contrast, no individuals older than 30 years were observed in

  15. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  16. The effect of walking speed on local dynamic stability is sensitive to calculation methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenum, Jan; Bruijn, Sjoerd M; Jensen, Bente Rona

    2014-01-01

    Local dynamic stability has been assessed by the short-term local divergence exponent (λS), which quantifies the average rate of logarithmic divergence of infinitesimally close trajectories in state space. Both increased and decreased local dynamic stability at faster walking speeds have been...... reported. This might pertain to methodological differences in calculating λS. Therefore, the aim was to test if different calculation methods would induce different effects of walking speed on local dynamic stability. Ten young healthy participants walked on a treadmill at five speeds (60%, 80%, 100%, 120......% and 140% of preferred walking speed) for 3min each, while upper body accelerations in three directions were sampled. From these time-series, λS was calculated by three different methods using: (a) a fixed time interval and expressed as logarithmic divergence per stride-time (λS-a), (b) a fixed number...

  17. Evolution of the stellar mass function in multiple-population globular clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesperini, Enrico; Hong, Jongsuk; Webb, Jeremy J.; D'Antona, Franca; D'Ercole, Annibale

    2018-05-01

    We present the results of a survey of N-body simulations aimed at studying the effects of the long-term dynamical evolution on the stellar mass function (MF) of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters. Our simulations show that if first-(1G) and second-generation (2G) stars have the same initial MF (IMF), the global MFs of the two populations are affected similarly by dynamical evolution and no significant differences between the 1G and 2G MFs arise during the cluster's evolution. If the two populations have different IMFs, dynamical effects do not completely erase memory of the initial differences. Should observations find differences between the global 1G and 2G MFs, these would reveal the fingerprints of differences in their IMFs. Irrespective of whether the 1G and 2G populations have the same global IMF or not, dynamical effects can produce differences between the local (measured at various distances from the cluster centre) 1G and 2G MFs; these differences are a manifestation of the process of mass segregation in populations with different initial structural properties. In dynamically old and spatially mixed clusters, however, differences between the local 1G and 2G MFs can reveal differences between the 1G and 2G global MFs. In general, for clusters with any dynamical age, large differences between the local 1G and 2G MFs are more likely to be associated with differences in the global MF. Our study also reveals a dependence of the spatial mixing rate on the stellar mass, another dynamical consequence of the multiscale nature of multiple-population clusters.

  18. Nonequilibrium population dynamics of phenotype conversion of cancer cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Xu Zhou

    Full Text Available Tumorigenesis is a dynamic biological process that involves distinct cancer cell subpopulations proliferating at different rates and interconverting between them. In this paper we proposed a mathematical framework of population dynamics that considers both distinctive growth rates and intercellular transitions between cancer cell populations. Our mathematical framework showed that both growth and transition influence the ratio of cancer cell subpopulations but the latter is more significant. We derived the condition that different cancer cell types can maintain distinctive subpopulations and we also explain why there always exists a stable fixed ratio after cell sorting based on putative surface markers. The cell fraction ratio can be shifted by changing either the growth rates of the subpopulations (Darwinism selection or by environment-instructed transitions (Lamarckism induction. This insight can help us to understand the dynamics of the heterogeneity of cancer cells and lead us to new strategies to overcome cancer drug resistance.

  19. The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

  20. Indoor footstep localization from structural dynamics instrumentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poston, Jeffrey D.; Buehrer, R. Michael; Tarazaga, Pablo A.

    2017-05-01

    Measurements from accelerometers originally deployed to measure a building's structural dynamics can serve a new role: locating individuals moving within a building. Specifically, this paper proposes measurements of footstep-generated vibrations as a novel source of information for localization. The complexity of wave propagation in a building (e.g., dispersion and reflection) limits the utility of existing algorithms designed to locate, for example, the source of sound in a room or radio waves in free space. This paper develops enhancements for arrival time determination and time difference of arrival localization in order to address the complexities posed by wave propagation within a building's structure. Experiments with actual measurements from an instrumented public building demonstrate the potential of locating footsteps to sub-meter accuracy. Furthermore, this paper explains how to forecast performance in other buildings with different sensor configurations. This localization capability holds the potential to assist public safety agencies in building evacuation and incidence response, to facilitate occupancy-based optimization of heating or cooling and to inform facility security.

  1. Genetic structure of local populations of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) in central Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munstermann, L E; Morrison, A C; Ferro, C; Pardo, R; Torres, M

    1998-01-01

    Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva), the sand fly vector of American visceral leishmaniasis in the New World tropics, has a broad but discontinuous geographical distribution from southern Mexico to Argentina. A baseline for population genetic structure and genetic variability for this species was obtained by analyzing 5 local, peridomestic populations at the approximate center of its distribution, the Magdalena River Valley of central Colombia. Three populations of L. longipalpis from El Callejón, a small rural community, were compared with 2 populations from neighboring areas 12 and 25 km distant for genetic variation at 15 isoenzyme loci. The mean heterozygosity ranged from 11 to 16%, with 1.2 to 2.3 alleles detected per locus. Nei's genetic distances among the populations were very low, ranging from 0.001 to 0.007. Gene flow estimates based on FST indicated high levels of gene flow among local L. longipalpis populations, with minimal population substructuring.

  2. Uterine fibroid embolisation: Initial experience in our local population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jawad, R.A.; Rehman, I.; Rana, A.I.; Tariq, N.; Tariq, N.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the results of uterine fibroid embolisation as a treatment option for symptomatic uterine fibroids in the local population. Methods: The retrospective study was done at the Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Shifa International Hospital, Islamabad, and comprised records of 12 patients with symptomatic uterine fibroids who had undergone uterine fibroid embolisation with the use of polyvinyl alcohol between May 2008 and July 2012. All of these patients had been assessed by a gynaecologist. Pre-embolisation workup was done by pelvic Magnetic Resonance Imaging. A detailed questionnaire was prepared to assess clinical improvement and interval change in fibroid size on follow-up imaging. Results: A technically successful embolisation was done in all patients. All patients experienced immediate post-procedure pain, but responded to conservative treatment. Clinical follow-up showed a significant reduction in symptoms within six months of the procedure, with 88% improvement in menorrhagia and 100% improvement in pain. Follow-up imaging showed reduction in fibroid sizes ranging from 17-63%. Two patients developed infection, which is a known complication of this procedure. Conclusion: Uterine fibroid embolisation is a well-recognised treatment option for symptomatic uterine fibroids. Ascertaining its long-term results in our local population will, however, require additional studies with larger patient populations. (author)

  3. Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

    2014-08-01

    Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

  4. Genetic diversity of Ghanaian local chicken populations based on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In Ghana, local chickens are raised across distinct agro-ecological zones and constitute unique populations with variable phenotypes that need to be characterized to provide needed information for the conservation of useful genotypes against future needs. In particular, the Interior Savannah (GHIS) in the north, the Forest ...

  5. Spatio-temporal environmental correlation and population variability in simple metacommunities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lasse Ruokolainen

    Full Text Available Natural populations experience environmental conditions that vary across space and over time. This variation is often correlated between localities depending on the geographical separation between them, and different species can respond to local environmental fluctuations similarly or differently, depending on their adaptation. How this emerging structure in environmental correlation (between-patches and between-species affects spatial community dynamics is an open question. This paper aims at a general understanding of the interactions between the environmental correlation structure and population dynamics in spatial networks of local communities (metacommunities, by studying simple two-patch, two-species systems. Three different pairs of interspecific interactions are considered: competition, consumer-resource interaction, and host-parasitoid interaction. While the results paint a relatively complex picture of the effect of environmental correlation, the interaction between environmental forcing, dispersal, and local interactions can be understood via two mechanisms. While increasing between-patch environmental correlation couples immigration and local densities (destabilising effect, the coupling between local populations under increased between-species environmental correlation can either amplify or dampen population fluctuations, depending on the patterns in density dependence. This work provides a unifying framework for modelling stochastic metacommunities, and forms a foundation for a better understanding of population responses to environmental fluctuations in natural systems.

  6. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAICc support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness. PMID:21389034

  7. Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton : Microcosm experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huisman, Jef

    This paper investigates the extent to which the predictions of an elementary model for light-limited growth are matched by laboratory experiments with light-limited phytoplankton. The model and experiments link the population dynamics of phytoplankton species with changes in the light gradient

  8. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

    2014-12-21

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Direct characterization of chaotic and stochastic dynamics in a population model with strong periodicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tung Wenwen; Qi Yan; Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Billings, Lora

    2005-01-01

    In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that noise and determinism may have comparable but different influences on population dynamics. However, no simple analysis methods have been introduced into ecology which can readily characterize those impacts. In this paper, we study a population model with strong periodicity and both with and without noise. The noise-free model generates both quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics for certain parameter values. Due to the strong periodicity, however, the generated chaotic dynamics have not been satisfactorily described. The dynamics becomes even more complicated when there is noise. Characterizing the chaotic and stochastic dynamics in this model thus represents a challenging problem. Here we show how the chaotic dynamics can be readily characterized by the direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos developed by [Gao JB, Zheng ZM. Europhys. Lett. 1994;25:485] and how the influence of noise on quasi-periodic motions can be characterized as asymmetric diffusions wandering along the quasi-periodic orbit. It is hoped that the introduced methods will be useful in studying other population models as well as population time series obtained both in field and laboratory experiments

  10. Efficient characterisation of large deviations using population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Tobias; Clark, Stephen R.; Bradford, Russell; Jack, Robert L.

    2018-05-01

    We consider population dynamics as implemented by the cloning algorithm for analysis of large deviations of time-averaged quantities. We use the simple symmetric exclusion process with periodic boundary conditions as a prototypical example and investigate the convergence of the results with respect to the algorithmic parameters, focussing on the dynamical phase transition between homogeneous and inhomogeneous states, where convergence is relatively difficult to achieve. We discuss how the performance of the algorithm can be optimised, and how it can be efficiently exploited on parallel computing platforms.

  11. Communication problems between local authorities and population in the zone of anti-terrorist operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. M. Dolya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the context of restoration of government framework and local authorities in the regions prone to external aggression, special attention should be paid to the study of the problem of organisation of communication between public authorities and local population. It is the dialogue and the effective exchange of information between the population and the local authorities that constitute one of the major pillars of reintegration of Donbass territories, covered by the antiterrorist operation, into Ukraine; the regional specifics of the given territories is the anarchy resulting from withdrawal of the local government bodies that were legally elected yet in 2010. In fact, escape of heads and deputies of local councils in the most challenging period in life of the region catalysed the local people, reinforcing the sense of insecurity and understanding the betrayal of representatives of local government bodies. Thus, the issues of enhancement of communication channels effectiveness, which were still burning before the beginning of the external aggression and the partial occupation of Donbass, have been compounded today by the problem of establishment of communication channels between the population and the new Ukrainian local authorities nearly from scratch. This needs to take into account that the armed conflict conditions remain and, obviously, leave their imprint on social interaction within local communities. At the same time, it is the development of communication in the ATO zone, especially in the areas that underwent occupation or were released, which may form the basis for the harmonious entry of the citizens into the Ukrainian socium. Establishment of civil­military administrations (CMAs with the purpose to temporarily substitute the non­functioning local authorities in Donbass is the unique experience for Ukraine. Despite legal recognition of rights and duties of local government bodies, it should be understood that CMAs act in terms of

  12. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

    2006-01-01

    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

  13. Quantum recurrence and fractional dynamic localization in ac-driven perfect state transfer Hamiltonians

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Longhi, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    Quantum recurrence and dynamic localization are investigated in a class of ac-driven tight-binding Hamiltonians, the Krawtchouk quantum chain, which in the undriven case provides a paradigmatic Hamiltonian model that realizes perfect quantum state transfer and mirror inversion. The equivalence between the ac-driven single-particle Krawtchouk Hamiltonian H -hat (t) and the non-interacting ac-driven bosonic junction Hamiltonian enables to determine in a closed form the quasi energy spectrum of H -hat (t) and the conditions for exact wave packet reconstruction (dynamic localization). In particular, we show that quantum recurrence, which is predicted by the general quantum recurrence theorem, is exact for the Krawtchouk quantum chain in a dense range of the driving amplitude. Exact quantum recurrence provides perfect wave packet reconstruction at a frequency which is fractional than the driving frequency, a phenomenon that can be referred to as fractional dynamic localization

  14. Probing the Dusty Stellar Populations of the Local Volume Galaxies with JWST /MIRI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Olivia C.; Meixner, Margaret [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD, 21218 (United States); Justtanont, Kay [Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, Onsala Space Observatory, SE-439 92 Onsala (Sweden); Glasse, Alistair [UK Astronomy Technology Centre, Royal Observatory, Edinburgh, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom)

    2017-05-20

    The Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) for the James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ) will revolutionize our understanding of infrared stellar populations in the Local Volume. Using the rich Spitzer -IRS spectroscopic data set and spectral classifications from the Surveying the Agents of Galaxy Evolution (SAGE)–Spectroscopic survey of more than 1000 objects in the Magellanic Clouds, the Grid of Red Supergiant and Asymptotic Giant Branch Star Model (grams), and the grid of YSO models by Robitaille et al., we calculate the expected flux densities and colors in the MIRI broadband filters for prominent infrared stellar populations. We use these fluxes to explore the JWST /MIRI colors and magnitudes for composite stellar population studies of Local Volume galaxies. MIRI color classification schemes are presented; these diagrams provide a powerful means of identifying young stellar objects, evolved stars, and extragalactic background galaxies in Local Volume galaxies with a high degree of confidence. Finally, we examine which filter combinations are best for selecting populations of sources based on their JWST colors.

  15. Spatial knowledge dynamics of innovation processes: local and non-local aspects of buzz and collective learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanner, Anne Nygaard

    2014-01-01

    learning processes and require face-to-face contact. In sum, the innovation biography method contributes in uncovering innovation processes and how these rely on many different configurations of spatial knowledge dynamics, including buzz, local ties and global pipelines. The findings imply that policy...

  16. Local cabbage ( Brassica oleracea var. capitata L.) populations from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In previous experiments, we were able to augment cabbages (Brassica oleracea L. var. capitata L.) with two new local open pollinated (OP) populations and one cultivar. The type of use indicated that these are cabbages with thinner and juicier leaves, which predisposes their heads for fine grating and also makes their ...

  17. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  18. Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes and associated damage to potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schans, J.

    1993-01-01

    Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globoderarostochiensis (Woll.) Skarbilovich and G. pallida Stone) and their interactions with potato plants are insufficiently understood to explain variations of population

  19. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  20. Predicting non-linear dynamics by stable local learning in a recurrent spiking neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilra, Aditya; Gerstner, Wulfram

    2017-11-27

    The brain needs to predict how the body reacts to motor commands, but how a network of spiking neurons can learn non-linear body dynamics using local, online and stable learning rules is unclear. Here, we present a supervised learning scheme for the feedforward and recurrent connections in a network of heterogeneous spiking neurons. The error in the output is fed back through fixed random connections with a negative gain, causing the network to follow the desired dynamics. The rule for Feedback-based Online Local Learning Of Weights (FOLLOW) is local in the sense that weight changes depend on the presynaptic activity and the error signal projected onto the postsynaptic neuron. We provide examples of learning linear, non-linear and chaotic dynamics, as well as the dynamics of a two-link arm. Under reasonable approximations, we show, using the Lyapunov method, that FOLLOW learning is uniformly stable, with the error going to zero asymptotically.

  1. A dynamic global and local combined particle swarm optimization algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiao Bin; Lian Zhigang; Chen Qunxian

    2009-01-01

    Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm has been developing rapidly and many results have been reported. PSO algorithm has shown some important advantages by providing high speed of convergence in specific problems, but it has a tendency to get stuck in a near optimal solution and one may find it difficult to improve solution accuracy by fine tuning. This paper presents a dynamic global and local combined particle swarm optimization (DGLCPSO) algorithm to improve the performance of original PSO, in which all particles dynamically share the best information of the local particle, global particle and group particles. It is tested with a set of eight benchmark functions with different dimensions and compared with original PSO. Experimental results indicate that the DGLCPSO algorithm improves the search performance on the benchmark functions significantly, and shows the effectiveness of the algorithm to solve optimization problems.

  2. Distribution of MN blood group types in local populations in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    lation, which measures how many people come into the local population, was then .... 1986). In contrast, the Japanese have only 30.9%. (Furuhata et al. ... also came from nearby towns, all of which, Isabela included, are composed of ...

  3. Boom or bust? A comparative analysis of transient population dynamics in plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Franco, Miguel; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    researchers as further possible effectors of complicated dynamics. Previously published methods of transient analysis have tended to require knowledge of initial population structure. However, this has been overcome by the recent development of the parametric Kreiss bound (which describes how large...... a population must become before reaching its maximum possible transient amplification following a disturbance) and the extension of this and other transient indices to simultaneously describe both amplified and attenuated transient dynamics. We apply the Kreiss bound and other transient indices to a data base...... worrying artefact of basic model parameterization. Synthesis. Transient indices describe how big or how small plant populations can get, en route to long-term stable rates of increase or decline. The patterns we found in the potential for transient dynamics, across many species of plants, suggest...

  4. Travel determinants and multi-scale transferability of national activity patterns to local populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henson, Kriste M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gou; ias, Konstadinos G [UCSB

    2010-11-30

    The ability to transfer national travel patterns to a local population is of interest when attempting to model megaregions or areas that exceed metropolitan planning organization (MPO) boundaries. At the core of this research are questions about the connection between travel behavior and land use, urban form, and accessibility. As a part of this process, a group of land use variables have been identified to define activity and travel patterns for individuals and households. The 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) participants are divided into categories comprised of a set of latent cluster models representing persons, travel, and land use. These are compared to two sets of cluster models constructed for two local travel surveys. Comparison of means statistical tests are used to assess differences among sociodemographic groups residing in localities with similar land uses. The results show that the NHTS and the local surveys share mean population activity and travel characteristics. However, these similarities mask behavioral heterogeneity that are shown when distributions of activity and travel behavior are examined. Therefore, data from a national household travel survey cannot be used to model local population travel characteristics if the goal to model the actual distributions and not mean travel behavior characteristics.

  5. An individual-based probabilistic model for simulating fisheries population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Cao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations. Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users. Thus, accuracte estimations of population size, growth rates are critical for success. Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species, and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes. In addition, the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model. This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries. Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span. The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries. It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors. Furthermore, the model allows for flexibility in sub-models (e.g., growth and recruitment and model assumptions (e.g., age- or size-dependent selectivity. This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies, including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions, assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.

  6. Changes in Land Surface Water Dynamics since the 1990s and Relation to Population Pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Jimenez, C.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

    2012-01-01

    We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

  7. Simulating the dynamic effect of land use and transport policies on the health of populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Roderick J; Adriazola-Steil, Claudia; Mulvihill, Christine; Fitzharris, Michael; Salmon, Paul; Bonnington, C Paul; Stevenson, Mark

    2015-04-01

    We identified the features of a land use-transportation system that optimizes the health and well-being of the population. We developed a quantitative system dynamics model to represent relationships among land use, transport, economic development, and population health. Simulation experiments were conducted over a 10-year simulation period to compare the effect of different baseline conditions and land use-transport policies on the number of motor vehicle crash deaths and disability-adjusted life years lost. Optimal reduction in the public health burden attributable to land transport was demonstrated when transport safety risk reduction policies were combined with land use and transport polices that minimized reliance on individual motorized transport and maximized use of active transport modes. The model's results were particularly sensitive to the level of development that characterized each city at the start of the simulation period. Local, national, and international decision-makers are encouraged to address transport, land use, and health as an integrated whole to achieve the desired societal benefits of traffic safety, population health, and social equity.

  8. Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand

  9. Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

    2013-02-01

    Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  10. An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto González Parra

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

  11. Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

    2017-10-03

    Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

  12. Perturbation analysis for patch occupancy dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Julien; Nichols, James D.; McIntyre, Carol L.; Ferraz, Goncalo; Hines, James E.

    2009-01-01

    Perturbation analysis is a powerful tool to study population and community dynamics. This article describes expressions for sensitivity metrics reflecting changes in equilibrium occupancy resulting from small changes in the vital rates of patch occupancy dynamics (i.e., probabilities of local patch colonization and extinction). We illustrate our approach with a case study of occupancy dynamics of Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) nesting territories. Examination of the hypothesis of system equilibrium suggests that the system satisfies equilibrium conditions. Estimates of vital rates obtained using patch occupancy models are used to estimate equilibrium patch occupancy of eagles. We then compute estimates of sensitivity metrics and discuss their implications for eagle population ecology and management. Finally, we discuss the intuition underlying our sensitivity metrics and then provide examples of ecological questions that can be addressed using perturbation analyses. For instance, the sensitivity metrics lead to predictions about the relative importance of local colonization and local extinction probabilities in influencing equilibrium occupancy for rare and common species.

  13. Identifying the Relevant Local Population for Environmental Impact Assessments of Mobile Marine Fauna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delphine B. H. Chabanne

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessments must be addressed at a scale that reflects the biological organization for the species affected. It can be challenging to identify the relevant local wildlife population for impact assessment for those species that are continuously distributed and highly mobile. Here, we document the existence of local communities of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus inhabiting coastal and estuarine waters of Perth, Western Australia, where major coastal developments have been undertaken or are proposed. Using sighting histories from a 4-year photo-identification study, we investigated fine-scale, social community structure of dolphins based on measures of social affinity, and network (Half-Weight Index—HWI, preferred dyadic association tests, and Lagged Association Rates—LAR, home ranges, residency patterns (Lagged Identification Rates—LIR, and genetic relatedness. Analyses revealed four socially and spatially distinct, mixed-sex communities. The four communities had distinctive social patterns varying in strength, site fidelity, and residency patterns. Overlap in home ranges and relatedness explained little to none of the association patterns between individuals, suggesting complex local social structures. The study demonstrated that environmental impact assessments for mobile, continuously distributed species must evaluate impacts in light of local population structure, especially where proposed developments may affect core habitats of resident communities or sub-populations. Here, the risk of local extinction is particularly significant for an estuarine community because of its small size, limited connectivity with adjacent communities, and use of areas subject to intensive human use. In the absence of information about fine-scale population structure, impact assessments may fail to consider the appropriate biological context.

  14. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  15. Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna

    2011-01-01

    -up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue....... Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life...... cycle. Our results indicate significant bottom-up effects of zooplankton and interspecific competition from sprat (Sprattus sprattus), particularly on younger age classes of herring. Although top-down forcing through fishing and predation by grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua...

  16. Disorder Induced Dynamic Equilibrium Localization and Random Phase Steps of Bose—Einstein Condensates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Ya-Fan; Xu Zhen; Qian Jun; Sun Jian-Fang; Jiang Bo-Nan; Hong Tao

    2011-01-01

    We numerically analyze the dynamic behavior of Bose—Einstein condensate (BEC) in a one-dimensional disordered potential before it completely loses spatial quantum coherence. We find that both the disorder statistics and the atom interactions produce remarkable effects on localization. We also find that the single phase of the initial condensate is broken into many small pieces while the system approaches localization, showing a counter-intuitive step-wise phase but not a thoroughly randomized phase. Although the condensates as a whole show less flow and expansion, the currents between adjacent phase steps retain strong time dependence. Thus we show explicitly that the localization of a finite size Bose—Einstein condensate is a dynamic equilibrium state. (general)

  17. Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2011-01-01

    Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

  18. Clinical Case Registries: Simultaneous Local and National Disease Registries for Population Quality Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backus, Lisa I.; Gavrilov, Sergey; Loomis, Timothy P.; Halloran, James P.; Phillips, Barbara R.; Belperio, Pamela S.; Mole, Larry A.

    2009-01-01

    The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has a system-wide, patient-centric electronic medical record system (EMR) within which the authors developed the Clinical Case Registries (CCR) to support population-centric delivery and evaluation of VA medical care. To date, the authors have applied the CCR to populations with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Local components use diagnosis codes and laboratory test results to identify patients who may have HIV or HCV and support queries on local care delivery with customizable reports. For each patient in a local registry, key EMR data are transferred via HL7 messaging to a single national registry. From 128 local registry systems, over 60,000 and 320,000 veterans in VA care have been identified as having HIV and HCV, respectively, and entered in the national database. Local and national reports covering demographics, resource usage, quality of care metrics and medication safety issues have been generated. PMID:19717794

  19. The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forchhammer Mads C

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms

  20. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  1. The roles of competition and habitat in the dynamics of populations and species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackulic, Charles Brandon; Reid, Janice; Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Davis, Raymond; Forsman, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The role of competition in structuring biotic communities at fine spatial scales is well known from detailed process-based studies. Our understanding of competition's importance at broader scales is less resolved and mainly based on static species distribution maps. Here, we bridge this gap by examining the joint occupancy dynamics of an invading (barred owl: Strix varia) and a resident species (Northern spotted owl: Strix occidentalis caurina) in a 1000 km2 study area over a 22 - year period. Past studies of these competitors have focused on the dynamics of one species at a time, hindering efforts to parse out the roles of habitat and competition and to forecast the future of the resident species. In addition, while these studies accounted for the imperfect detection of the focal species, no multiseason analysis of these species has accounted for the imperfect detection of the secondary species, potentially biasing inference. We analyze survey data using models that combine the general multistate-multiseason occupancy modeling framework with autologistic modeling - allowing us to account for important aspects of our study system. We find that local extinction probability increases for each species when the other is present; however, the effect of the invader on the resident is greater. Although the species prefer different habitats, these habitats are highly correlated at the patch scale and the impacts of invader on the resident are greatest in patches that would otherwise be optimal. As a consequence, competition leads to a weaker relationship between habitat and Northern spotted owl occupancy. Colonization and extinction rates of the invader are closely related to neighborhood occupancy, and over the first half of the study the availability of colonists limited the rate of population growth. Competition is likely to exclude the resident species both through its immediate effects on local extinction, and by indirectly lowering colonization rates as Northern

  2. The roles of competition and habitat in the dynamics of populations and species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackulic, Charles B; Reid, Janice; Nichols, James D; Hines, James E; Davis, Raymond; Forsman, Eric

    2014-02-01

    The role of competition in structuring biotic communities at fine spatial scales is well known from detailed process-based studies. Our understanding of competition's importance at broader scales is less resolved and mainly based on static species distribution maps. Here, we bridge this gap by examining the joint occupancy dynamics of an invading species (Barred Owl, Strix varia) and a resident species (Northern Spotted Owl, Strix occidentalis caurina) in a 1000-km study area over a 22-year period. Past studies of these competitors have focused on the dynamics of one species at a time, hindering efforts to parse out the roles of habitat and competition and to forecast the future of the resident species. In addition, while these studies accounted for the imperfect detection of the focal species, no multi-season analysis of these species has accounted for the imperfect detection of the secondary species, potentially biasing inference. We analyzed survey data using models that combine the general multistate-multi-season occupancy modeling framework with autologistic modeling, allowing us to account for important aspects of our study system. We found that local extinction probability increases for each species when the other is present; however, the effect of the invader on the resident is greater. Although the species prefer different habitats, these habitats are highly correlated at the patch scale, and the impacts of invader on the resident are greatest in patches that would otherwise be optimal. As a consequence, competition leads to a weaker relationship between habitat and Northern Spotted Owl occupancy. Colonization and extinction rates of the invader are closely related to neighborhood occupancy, and over the first half of the study the availability of colonists limited the rate of population growth. Competition is likely to exclude the resident species, both through its immediate effects on local extinction and by indirectly lowering colonization rates as

  3. [Approximation to the dynamics of meningococcal meningitis through dynamic systems and time series].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canals, M

    1996-02-01

    Meningococcal meningitis is subjected to epidemiological surveillance due to its severity and the occasional presentation of epidemic outbreaks. This work analyses previous disease models, generate new ones and analyses monthly cases using ARIMA time series models. The results show that disease dynamics for closed populations is epidemic and the epidemic size is related to the proportion of carriers and the transmissiveness of the agent. In open populations, disease dynamics depends on the admission rate of susceptible and the relative admission of infected individuals. Our model considers a logistic populational growth and carrier admission proportional to populational size, generating an endemic dynamics. Considering a non-instantaneous system response, a greater realism is obtained establishing that the endemic situation may present a dynamics highly sensitive to initial conditions, depending on the transmissiveness and proportion of susceptible individuals in the population. Time series model showed an adequate predictive capacity in terms no longer than 10 months. The lack of long term predictability was attributed to local changes in the proportion of carriers or on transmissiveness that lead to chaotic dynamics over a seasonal pattern. Predictions for 1995 and 1996 were obtained.

  4. Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

    2017-02-01

    In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

  5. Nonadiabatic dynamics in the semiclassical Liouville representation: Locality, transformation theory, and the energy budget

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martens, Craig C., E-mail: cmartens@uci.edu

    2016-12-20

    In this paper, we revisit the semiclassical Liouville approach to describing molecular dynamics with electronic transitions using classical trajectories. Key features of the formalism are highlighted. The locality in phase space and presence of nonclassical terms in the generalized Liouville equations are emphasized and discussed in light of trajectory surface hopping methodology. The representation dependence of the coupled semiclassical Liouville equations in the diabatic and adiabatic bases are discussed and new results for the transformation theory of the Wigner functions representing the corresponding density matrix elements given. We show that the diagonal energies of the state populations are not conserved during electronic transitions, as energy is stored in the electronic coherence. We discuss the implications of this observation for the validity of imposing strict energy conservation in trajectory based methods for simulating nonadiabatic processes.

  6. Missing cycles: Effect of climate change on population dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    population dynamics of the larch budmoth – an insect pest which causes massive defoliation of entire larch forests ... hypothesized that global warming has led to the collapse of the cycles ... When temperatures increase after winter, and the.

  7. Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2017-10-01

    Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

  8. Dynamic Sensing of Localized Corrosion at the Metal/Solution Interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shenhao Chen

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A Mach-Zehnder interferometer is employed to detect localized corrosion at the metal/solution interface in the potentiodynamic sweep of the iron electrode in solutions. During the electrochemical reactions, local variations of the electrolyte’s refractive index, which correlate with the concentration of dissolved species, change the optical path length (OPL of the object beam when the beam passes through the electrolyte. The distribution of the OPL difference was obtained to present the concentration change of the metal ions visually, which enable direct evidence of corrosion processes. The OPL difference distribution shows localized and general corrosion during the anodic dissolution of the iron electrode in solutions with and without chloride ions, respectively. This method provides an approach for dynamic detection of localized corrosion at the metal/solution interface.

  9. Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

    2018-01-01

    Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

  10. Fault Gauge Numerical Simulation : Dynamic Rupture Propagation and Local Energy Partitioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollon, G.

    2017-12-01

    In this communication, we present dynamic simulations of the local (centimetric) behaviour of a fault filled with a granular gauge submitted to dynamic rupture. The numerical tool (Fig. 1) combines classical Discrete Element Modelling (albeit with the ability to deal with arbitrary grain shapes) for the simualtion of the gauge, and continuous modelling for the simulation of the acoustic waves emission and propagation. In a first part, the model is applied to the simulation of steady-state shearing of the fault under remote displacement boudary conditions, in order to observe the shear accomodation at the interface (R1 cracks, localization, wear, etc.). It also makes it possible to fit to desired values the Rate and State Friction properties of the granular gauge by adapting the contact laws between grains. Such simulations provide quantitative insight in the steady-state energy partitionning between fracture, friction and acoustic emissions as a function of the shear rate. In a second part, the model is submitted to dynamic rupture. For that purpose, the fault is elastically preloaded just below rupture, and a displacement pulse is applied at one end of the sample (and on only one side of the fault). This allows to observe the propagation of the instability along the fault and the interplay between this propagation and the local granular phenomena. Energy partitionning is then observed both in space and time.

  11. Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2009-01-01

    We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

  12. Sustainable tourism in National Park "Đerdap", Serbia - attitudes of local population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brankov Jovana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the broader controversy about sustainable development, tourism literature highlights the importance of the support of the local population to tourism development. The active support of the community is essential for the local government, the future development policies and all entities that participate in the creation of sustainable tourism development. The specific dimension of this influence exists in protected areas, given the pronounced strong environmental component and a bond that is created among tourism - protected area - locals. The paper analyzes the attitudes and opinions of the local population residing in the National Park “Đerdap” or its protection zone about the effects and control of tourism development, as well as the availability of information on sustainable tourism and the impact this activity has on the community. The method applied is survey research on a sample of 227 respondents. During the preparation of the survey, the methodological procedure for the analysis of sustainable tourism indicators ware used proposed by the World Tourism Organization. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47007 III

  13. Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-01

    1973. Ecology of Vibrio parahemolyticus in mixed-template amplifications: formation, consequences and elimination by Chesapeake Bay. J. Bacteriol. 113...Science 1930 and Engineering DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria by...DYNAMICS IN NATURAL POPULATIONS OF PLANKTONIC VIBRIO BACTERIA by Janelle Ren6e Thompson B.S. Biological Sciences, Stanford University 1998 M.S

  14. Haïti, en situation post-séisme : quelques effets de la catastrophe du 12 janvier 2010 sur la population locale Haïti, in post-earthquake mode: some effects of the earthquake of January 12 2010 on the local population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evens Jabouin

    2012-01-01

    place in a moment when that population was on its way of improvement politically, socially and economically. The disaster has stopped that dynamic, intensifying the existing problems and challenges, and creating new ones. This article analyze – through first hand testimonies, statements and observations – the impacts of such a disaster on the local population as well as diverse inquiries and doubts of that population on its future.  

  15. Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Porčić

    Full Text Available The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC. These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.

  16. Local and dynamic properties of light interacting with subwavelength holes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prangsma, Jord

    2009-01-01

    The discovery of the extraordinary transmission phenomena has initiated an intense study of the interaction of light with subwavelength holes. In this thesis the dynamic and local properties of light interacting with subwavelength holes are investigated. First of all the role of hole shape on the

  17. Population ecology, nonlinear dynamics, and social evolution. I. Associations among nonrelatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avilés, Leticia; Abbot, Patrick; Cutter, Asher D

    2002-02-01

    Using an individual-based and genetically explicit simulation model, we explore the evolution of sociality within a population-ecology and nonlinear-dynamics framework. Assuming that individual fitness is a unimodal function of group size and that cooperation may carry a relative fitness cost, we consider the evolution of one-generation breeding associations among nonrelatives. We explore how parameters such as the intrinsic rate of growth and group and global carrying capacities may influence social evolution and how social evolution may, in turn, influence and be influenced by emerging group-level and population-wide dynamics. We find that group living and cooperation evolve under a wide range of parameter values, even when cooperation is costly and the interactions can be defined as altruistic. Greater levels of cooperation, however, did evolve when cooperation carried a low or no relative fitness cost. Larger group carrying capacities allowed the evolution of larger groups but also resulted in lower cooperative tendencies. When the intrinsic rate of growth was not too small and control of the global population size was density dependent, the evolution of large cooperative tendencies resulted in dynamically unstable groups and populations. These results are consistent with the existence and typical group sizes of organisms ranging from the pleometrotic ants to the colonial birds and the global population outbreaks and crashes characteristic of organisms such as the migratory locusts and the tree-killing bark beetles.

  18. Discrete-Time Local Value Iteration Adaptive Dynamic Programming: Admissibility and Termination Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Qinglai; Liu, Derong; Lin, Qiao

    In this paper, a novel local value iteration adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm is developed to solve infinite horizon optimal control problems for discrete-time nonlinear systems. The focuses of this paper are to study admissibility properties and the termination criteria of discrete-time local value iteration ADP algorithms. In the discrete-time local value iteration ADP algorithm, the iterative value functions and the iterative control laws are both updated in a given subset of the state space in each iteration, instead of the whole state space. For the first time, admissibility properties of iterative control laws are analyzed for the local value iteration ADP algorithm. New termination criteria are established, which terminate the iterative local ADP algorithm with an admissible approximate optimal control law. Finally, simulation results are given to illustrate the performance of the developed algorithm.In this paper, a novel local value iteration adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm is developed to solve infinite horizon optimal control problems for discrete-time nonlinear systems. The focuses of this paper are to study admissibility properties and the termination criteria of discrete-time local value iteration ADP algorithms. In the discrete-time local value iteration ADP algorithm, the iterative value functions and the iterative control laws are both updated in a given subset of the state space in each iteration, instead of the whole state space. For the first time, admissibility properties of iterative control laws are analyzed for the local value iteration ADP algorithm. New termination criteria are established, which terminate the iterative local ADP algorithm with an admissible approximate optimal control law. Finally, simulation results are given to illustrate the performance of the developed algorithm.

  19. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  20. Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, P.F.; Sorci, G.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Boulinier, T.

    2003-01-01

    Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

  1. Local introduction and heterogeneous spatial spread of dengue-suppressing Wolbachia through an urban population of Aedes aegypti.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom L Schmidt

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Dengue-suppressing Wolbachia strains are promising tools for arbovirus control, particularly as they have the potential to self-spread following local introductions. To test this, we followed the frequency of the transinfected Wolbachia strain wMel through Ae. aegypti in Cairns, Australia, following releases at 3 nonisolated locations within the city in early 2013. Spatial spread was analysed graphically using interpolation and by fitting a statistical model describing the position and width of the wave. For the larger 2 of the 3 releases (covering 0.97 km2 and 0.52 km2, we observed slow but steady spatial spread, at about 100-200 m per year, roughly consistent with theoretical predictions. In contrast, the smallest release (0.11 km2 produced erratic temporal and spatial dynamics, with little evidence of spread after 2 years. This is consistent with the prediction concerning fitness-decreasing Wolbachia transinfections that a minimum release area is needed to achieve stable local establishment and spread in continuous habitats. Our graphical and likelihood analyses produced broadly consistent estimates of wave speed and wave width. Spread at all sites was spatially heterogeneous, suggesting that environmental heterogeneity will affect large-scale Wolbachia transformations of urban mosquito populations. The persistence and spread of Wolbachia in release areas meeting minimum area requirements indicates the promise of successful large-scale population transformation.

  2. Collective dynamics of populations of weakly correlated filaments of incoherent white light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Jinxin; Sheridan, John T; Saravanamuttu, Kalaichelvi

    2013-01-01

    We examined the dynamics of two populations of self-trapped filaments of spatially and temporally incoherent white light. The populations consisted of (i) independent filaments generated through self-trapping of incandescent speckles, and (ii) co-dependent filaments created through modulation instability of a broad incandescent beam. Both filament populations were positionally stable in conditions where individual pairs of self-trapped beams interact strongly. Both also acquired significantly broad intensity distributions, which were independent of their parent optical fields; a small but persistent number of high-intensity filaments was identified in both cases. These studies provide accessible routes to weakly correlated ensembles, insight into their collective behaviour such as self-stabilization and self-selected intensity distributions, and reveal intriguing similarities between the dynamics of two populations of different origins. (paper)

  3. Application of System Dynamics Methodology in Population Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    August Turina

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this work is to present the application of system dynamics and system thinking, as well as the advantages and possible defects of this analytic approach, in order to improve the analysis of complex systems such as population and, thereby, to monitor more effectively the underlying causes of migrations. This methodology has long been present in interdisciplinary scientific circles, but its scientific contribution has not been sufficiently applied in analysis practice in Croatia. Namely, the major part of system analysis is focused on detailed complexity rather than on dynamic complexity. Generally, the science of complexity deals with emergence, innovation, learning and adaptation. Complexity is viewed according to the number of system components, or through a number of combinations that must be continually analyzed in order to understand and consequently provide adequate decisions. Simulations containing thousands of variables and complex arrays of details distract overall attention from the basic cause patterns and key inter-relations emerging and prevailing within an analyzed population. Systems thinking offers a holistic and integral perspective for observation of the world.

  4. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B.; Rusakov, Alexey V.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We model community dynamics in stateless societies. → Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. → Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. → Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  5. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: medvinsky@iteb.ru [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

    2011-06-15

    Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  6. Türkiye’de Yerel Yönetimler Reformunun İç ve Dış Dinamikleri( Local and Foreign Dynamics of Local Management Reform In Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiz Tufan EMİNİ

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Works on the administrative reformation of which roots relies on Tanzimat Period are occasionally proposed for the agenda by political powers in Turkey. On these works, it is possible to see both internal and external dynamics are effective. But, by the years of 1980s, neo-liberal policies, globalisation, the productivity crisis on the public sector and discourses about the necessity of localization have proposed the new approaches about the public management for the agenda. In the same period, some global actors including EU, OECD, World Bank and IMF have been more important. These actors have influenced on the contents, the quality and the pace of the recent reformation works in Turkey. Localization, privatization and civilisation have changed the quality of the reformation works that increased the importance of local management. Although these factors have showed that the present situation of local is insufficient to realize the new improvemenets. This insufficiency called as internal dynamics and the reformation attempts to problems are mostly reflections of press and forcing by external dynamics.

  7. Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, L.L.; Fuller, T.K.; Sievert, P.R.; Kellogg, R.L.

    2009-01-01

    The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

  8. Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, L Leann; Fuller, Todd K; Sievert, Paul R; Kellogg, Robert L

    2009-06-01

    The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations.

  9. Social Organization, Population, and Land Use*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axinn, William G.; Ghimire, Dirgha J.

    2011-01-01

    We present a new approach to the investigation of human influences on environmental change that explicitly adds consideration of social organization. This approach identifies social organization as an influence on the environment that is independent of population size, affluence, and technology. The framework we present also identifies population events, such as births, that are likely to influence environmental outcomes beyond the consequences of population size. The theoretical framework we construct explains that explicit attention to social organization is necessary for micro-level investigation of the population-environment relationship because social organization influences both. We use newly available longitudinal, multilevel, mixed-method measures of local land use changes, local population dynamics, and social organization from the Nepalese Himalayas to provide empirical tests of this new framework. These tests reveal that measures of change in social organization are strongly associated with measures of change in land use, and that the association is independent of common measures of population size, affluence, and technology. Also, local birth events shape local land use changes and key proximate determinants of land use change. Together the empirical results demonstrate key new scientific opportunities arising from the approach we present. PMID:21876607

  10. Long-term effective population sizes, temporal stability of genetic composition and potential for local adaptation in anadromous brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Møller; Ruzzante, D.E.; Eg Nielsen, Einar

    2002-01-01

    temporal samples from the same populations than among samples from different populations. Estimates of N-e, using a likelihood-based implementation of the temporal method, revealed N-e greater than or equal to 500 in two of three populations for which we have historical data. A third population in a small...... (3 km) river showed Ne greater than or equal to 300. Assuming a stepping-stone model of gene flow we considered the relative roles of gene flow, random genetic drift and selection to assess the possibilities for local adaptation. The requirements for local adaptation were fulfilled, but only...... adaptations resulting from strong selection were expected to occur at the level of individual populations. Adaptations resulting from weak selection were more likely to occur on a regional basis, i.e. encompassing several populations. N-e appears to have declined recently in at least one of the studied...

  11. Local 3D matrix microenvironment regulates cell migration through spatiotemporal dynamics of contractility-dependent adhesions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Andrew D.; Carvajal, Nicole; Jin, Albert; Matsumoto, Kazue; Yamada, Kenneth M.

    2015-11-01

    The physical properties of two-dimensional (2D) extracellular matrices (ECMs) modulate cell adhesion dynamics and motility, but little is known about the roles of local microenvironmental differences in three-dimensional (3D) ECMs. Here we generate 3D collagen gels of varying matrix microarchitectures to characterize their regulation of 3D adhesion dynamics and cell migration. ECMs containing bundled fibrils demonstrate enhanced local adhesion-scale stiffness and increased adhesion stability through balanced ECM/adhesion coupling, whereas highly pliable reticular matrices promote adhesion retraction. 3D adhesion dynamics are locally regulated by ECM rigidity together with integrin/ECM association and myosin II contractility. Unlike 2D migration, abrogating contractility stalls 3D migration regardless of ECM pore size. We find force is not required for clustering of activated integrins on 3D native collagen fibrils. We propose that efficient 3D migration requires local balancing of contractility with ECM stiffness to stabilize adhesions, which facilitates the detachment of activated integrins from ECM fibrils.

  12. Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2010-11-03

    We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand, for finite N the dynamics is described by a master equation that determines the probability of spiking activity within each population. We first consider a single excitatory population that exhibits bistability in the deterministic limit. The steady-state probability distribution of the stochastic network has maxima at points corresponding to the stable fixed points of the deterministic network; the relative weighting of the two maxima depends on the system size. For large but finite N, we calculate the exponentially small rate of noise-induced transitions between the resulting metastable states using a Wentzel-Kramers- Brillouin (WKB) approximation and matched asymptotic expansions. We then consider a two-population excitatory or inhibitory network that supports limit cycle oscillations. Using a diffusion approximation, we reduce the dynamics to a neural Langevin equation, and show how the intrinsic noise amplifies subthreshold oscillations (quasicycles). © 2010 The American Physical Society.

  13. Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

    2012-04-01

    Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  14. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a ...

  15. Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

    Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability...

  16. Seasonal population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii (Diplopoda, Julidae in the Dnieper river arena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. G. Gudym

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We have researched the population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii Lohmander, 1928 in the arena of the Dnepr river (within the "Dnieper-Orilsky” Nature Reserve and also present a full picture of the habitat distribution of Julidae within the researched area. The tested models were basic types of arena biogeocenosis: sand steppe, black maple forests, artificial pine plantations, deciduous forest, meadow and swamp. Variation in population density of B. jawlowskii is determined by biotopical features. The swamp and meadow habitats can be characterized by the highest level of population dynamics. B. jawlowskii plays the greatest role in the herpetobiont grouping in swamp and oak forest habitats (6.7% and 4.6% respectively. In other types of habitat this species composes 0.1–3.5% of the total abundance of this group. The highest abundance dynamic was reached by the Julidae cenopopulations which inhabit the swamp, oak forest and meadow habitats. B. jawlowskii occupies a relatively significant share in the herpetobiont communities of these habitats. Thus, the indicators of absolute number of this species and its relative participation in the herpertobiont grouping indicate the preference of this species for marsh, oak forest and meadow habitats. These habitats can be characterized by an excessive or moderate level of edaphotopic humidification. The ecosystem of the steppe zone of Ukraine is subject to significant human impact. In nature reserves, this effect is minimized, which permits research to be conducted on regimes of natural population dynamics. We established that B. jawlowskii inhabits all habitats investigated within the arena zone of the Dnepr river. This indicates that this is an environmentally flexible Julidae species. The population dynamics of B. jawlowskii can be characterized by three distinct periods: spring-summer, summer and autumn. Each of these periods is characterized by a distinct population dynamic, but throughout the

  17. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  18. Local environment but not genetic differentiation influences biparental care in ten plover populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orsolya Vincze

    Full Text Available Social behaviours are highly variable between species, populations and individuals. However, it is contentious whether behavioural variations are primarily moulded by the environment, caused by genetic differences, or a combination of both. Here we establish that biparental care, a complex social behaviour that involves rearing of young by both parents, differs between closely related populations, and then test two potential sources of variation in parental behaviour between populations: ambient environment and genetic differentiation. We use 2904 hours behavioural data from 10 geographically distinct Kentish (Charadrius alexandrinus and snowy plover (C. nivosus populations in America, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa to test these two sources of behavioural variation. We show that local ambient temperature has a significant influence on parental care: with extreme heat (above 40 °C total incubation (i.e. % of time the male or female incubated the nest increased, and female share (% female share of incubation decreased. By contrast, neither genetic differences between populations, nor geographic distances predicted total incubation or female's share of incubation. These results suggest that the local environment has a stronger influence on a social behaviour than genetic differentiation, at least between populations of closely related species.

  19. Life history, population viability, and the potential for local adaptation in isolated trout populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.J. Carim

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Habitat loss and fragmentation have caused population decline across taxa through impacts on life history diversity, dispersal patterns, and gene flow. Yet, intentional isolation of native fish populations is a frequently used management strategy to protect against negative interactions with invasive fish species. We evaluated the population viability and genetic diversity of 12 isolated populations of Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi located on the Flathead Indian Reservation in Montana, USA. Length-structured integral projection models (IPMs were used to project population growth rate (lambda and its sensitivity to underlying vital rates and parameters. We examined relationships between lambda, genetic diversity, and habitat size and quality. Lambda ranged from 0.68 to 1.1 with 10 of 12 populations projected to be in decline. A sensitivity analysis of lambda with respect to projection matrix elements indicated that lambda was generally sensitive to changes in early life history stages (survival/growth, but patterns differed among populations. Another sensitivity analysis with respect to underlying model parameters showed highly consistent pattern across populations, with lambda being most sensitive to the slope of probability of maturity (estimated from published literature, generally followed by adult survival, and the slope of somatic growth rate (directly measured from each population. Lambda was not correlated with genetic diversity. For populations residing in small isolated streams (≤5 km of occupied habitat, lambda significantly increased with base flow discharge (r2=0.50, p<0.02. Our results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation for persistence of small, isolated populations. Specifically we saw evidence for higher probability of maturity at smaller sizes in the smallest, coldest isolated systems, increasing probability of persistence for these populations. Climate change threatens to further fragment populations of

  20. Local field corrections in the lattice dynamics of chromium | Ndukwe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work extends the inclusion of local field corrections in the calculation of the phonon dispersion curves to the transition metal, chromium (Cr3+) using the formalism of lattice dynamics based on the transition metal model potential approach in the adiabatic and hatmonic approximations. The results obtained here have a ...

  1. Piezoelectric dynamic strain monitoring for detecting local seismic damage in steel buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurata, Masahiro; Li, Xiaohua; Fujita, Kohei; Yamaguchi, Mayako

    2013-01-01

    This research presents a methodology for damage detection along with a sensing system for monitoring seismic damage in steel buildings. The system extracts the location and extent of local damage, such as fracture at a beam–column connection, from changes in the bending moment distribution in a steel moment-resisting frame. We developed a dynamic strain-based sensing system utilizing piezoelectric film sensors and wireless sensing techniques to estimate the bending moments resisted by individual structural members under small amplitude loadings such as ambient vibrations and minor earthquakes. We introduce a new damage index that extracts local damage information from the comparative study of the dynamic strain responses of the structural members before and after a large earthquake event. The damage detection scheme was examined both analytically and numerically using a simple frame example. Then, the entire local damage detection scheme was verified through a series of vibration tests using a one-quarter-scale steel testbed that simulated seismic damage at member ends. (paper)

  2. Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Hirunsalee, Anan; Barker, K. R.; Beute, M. K.

    1995-01-01

    A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduc...

  3. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

  4. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilia M. Ladino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  5. Dynamic assessments of population exposure to urban greenspace using multi-source big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yimeng; Huang, Bo; Cai, Jixuan; Chen, Bin

    2018-09-01

    A growing body of evidence has proven that urban greenspace is beneficial to improve people's physical and mental health. However, knowledge of population exposure to urban greenspace across different spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. Moreover, the majority of existing environmental assessments are unable to quantify how residents enjoy their ambient greenspace during their daily life. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a dynamic method to assess urban greenspace exposure with the integration of mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) data and high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. This method was further applied to 30 major cities in China by assessing cities' dynamic greenspace exposure levels based on residents' surrounding areas with different buffer scales (0.5km, 1km, and 1.5km). Results showed that regarding residents' 0.5-km surrounding environment, Wenzhou and Hangzhou were found to be with the greenest exposure experience, whereas Zhengzhou and Tangshan were the least ones. The obvious diurnal and daily variations of population exposure to their surrounding greenspace were also identified to be highly correlated with the distribution pattern of urban greenspace and the dynamics of human mobility. Compared with two common measurements of urban greenspace (green coverage rate and green area per capita), the developed method integrated the dynamics of population distribution and geographic locations of urban greenspace into the exposure assessment, thereby presenting a more reasonable way to assess population exposure to urban greenspace. Additionally, this dynamic framework could hold potential utilities in supporting urban planning studies and environmental health studies and advancing our understanding of the magnitude of population exposure to greenspace at different spatiotemporal scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn J. Roossinck

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  7. Factors affecting population dynamics of maternally transmitted endosymbionts in Bemisia tabaci.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huipeng Pan

    Full Text Available While every individual of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae harbors the primary symbiont (P-symbiont Portiera, the infection frequencies of the six secondary symbionts (S-symbionts including Hamiltonella, Arsenophonus, Cardinium, Wolbachia, Rickettsia and Fritschea vary greatly among different populations. To characterize the factors influencing the infection dynamics of the six S-symbionts in B. tabaci, gene-specific PCR were conducted to screen for the presence of the P-symbiont Portiera and the six S-symbionts in 61 (17 B and 44 Q biotypes field populations collected from different plant species and locations in China. All individuals of the 61 populations hosted the P-symbiont Portiera, but none of them harbored Arsenophonus and Fritschea. The presence and infection rates of Hamiltonella, Cardinium, Rickettsia, Wolbachia and their co-infections Rickettsia + Hamiltonella (RH, Rickettsia + Cardinium (RC, Hamiltonella + Cardinium (HC and Rickettsia + Hamiltonella + Cardinium (RHC varied significantly among the 61 field populations; and the observed variations can be explained by biotypes, sexes, host plants and geographical locations of these field populations. Taken together, at least three factors including biotype, host plant and geographical location affect the infection dynamics of S-symbionts in B. tabaci.

  8. Ovulation rate and early embryonic survival rate in female rabbits of a synthetic line and a local Algerian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Belabbas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A higher litter size at birth has been reported in female rabbits from a Synthetic line than in those of the Local Algerian population. The aim of this work was to analyse whether this difference in litter size was due to a higher ovulation rate and/or embryonic survival rate in Synthetic line than in Local Algerian population. In total, 24 multiparous female rabbits from Synthetic line and 23 from Local population were used in this experiment. Litter size at birth was recorded up to the first 3 parities. Litter size was 20% higher in Synthetic line than Local population. At their 4th gestation, the females were euthanized at 72 h post coitum. Synthetic line females had 50% more ova and embryos than those of Local population (+4.42 ova and +3.92 embryos, respectively. Synthetic line displayed a lower percentage of normal embryos and a larger number of unfertilized oocytes than Local population (–2.81% and +0.64 oocytes, respectively, but differences were not relevant. Synthetic line showed a lesser embryonic stage of development at 72 h post coitum, showing a higher percentage of early morulae (31.50 vs. 8.50% and a lower percentage of compact morulae (51.45 vs. 78.65% than Local population. No relevant difference was found for early embryonic survival rate between Synthetic line and Local population. In conclusion, the difference in litter size was mainly due to a higher ovulation rate in the Synthetic line, allowing more embryos to develop in this line.

  9. Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

    2016-06-01

    The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

  10. Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

    2007-04-01

    A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

  11. Dynamics of many-body localization in the presence of particle loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Nieuwenburg, EPL; Yago Malo, J.; Daley, AJ; Fischer, MH

    2018-01-01

    At long times, residual couplings to the environment become relevant even in the most isolated experiments, a crucial difficulty for the study of fundamental aspects of many-body dynamics. A particular example is many-body localization in a cold-atom setting, where incoherent photon scattering introduces both dephasing and particle loss. Whereas dephasing has been studied in detail and is known to destroy localization already on the level of non-interacting particles, the effect of particle loss is less well understood. A difficulty arises due to the ‘non-local’ nature of the loss process, complicating standard numerical tools using matrix product decomposition. Utilizing symmetries of the Lindbladian dynamics, we investigate the particle loss on both the dynamics of observables, as well as the structure of the density matrix and the individual states. We find that particle loss in the presence of interactions leads to dissipation and a strong suppression of the (operator space) entanglement entropy. Our approach allows for the study of the interplay of dephasing and loss for pure and mixed initial states to long times, which is important for future experiments using controlled coupling of the environment.

  12. Life history and population dynamics of an estuarine amphipod, Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae)

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Aravind, N.P.; Sheeba, P.; Nair, K.K.C.; Achuthankutty, C.T.

    Life history and Population Dynamics of an Estuarine Amphipod –Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae) Nisha. P. Aravind, P. Sheeba, K.K.C. Nair and C.T.Achuthankutty* National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, Cochin 682018, India... of laboratory data to the field suggests that E. chilkensis in Cochin estuary has a multivoltine life cycle. Key words: - Eriopisa chilkensis, Amphipoda, life cycle, population dynamics, Cochin estuary, India 2 1. Introduction Life-history traits of 214 amphipod...

  13. Effect of exposure on salmon lice Lepeophtheirus salmonis population dynamics in Faroese salmon farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patursson, Esbern J.; Simonsen, Knud; Visser, Andre

    2017-01-01

    We assessed variations in salmon lice Lepeophtheirus salmonis population dynamics in Faroese salmon farms in relationship to their physical exposure to local circulation patterns and flushing with adjacent waters. Factors used in this study to quantify physical exposure are estimates...... of the freshwater exchange rate, the tidal exchange rate and dispersion by tidal currents. Salmon farms were ranked according to the rate of increase in the average numbers of salmon lice per fish. In a multiple linear regression, physical exposure together with temperature were shown to have a significant effect...... threshold of salmon stocking numbers for outbreaks of infection. The study presents a simple method of characterizing salmon farming fjords in terms of their different exposure levels and how they relate to potential self-infection at these sites...

  14. Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirunsalee, A; Barker, K R; Beute, M K

    1995-06-01

    A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduction, and root-damage potentials on susceptible tobacco were similar for Ma1 and Ma2. In the mixed (1:1) population, Ma1 was dominant on peanut and Ma2 was dominant on both tobacco cultivars. Crop rotation affected the population dynamics of different nematode races. For years 2 and 3, the low numbers of Ma1 and Ma2 from a previous-year poor host increased rapidly on suitable hosts. Ma1 had greater reproduction factors ([RF] = population density at harvest/population density at preplandng) than did Ma2 and Ma1 + Ma2 in second-year peanut plots following first-year resistant tobacco, and in third-year peanut plots following second-year tobacco. In mixed infestations, Ma1 predominated over Ma2 in previous-year peanut plots, whereas Ma2 predominated over Ma1 in previous-year tobacco plots. Moderate damage on resistant tobacco was induced by Ma1 in the second year. In the third year, moderate damage on peanut was associated with 'Ma2' from previous-year peanut plots. The resistant tobacco supported sufficient reproduction of Ma1 over 2 years to effect moderate damage and yield suppression to peanut in year 3.

  15. Population responses to environmental change in a tropical ant: the interaction of spatial and temporal dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Doug; Vandermeer, John; Perfecto, Ivette; Philpott, Stacy M

    2014-01-01

    Spatial structure can have a profound, but often underappreciated, effect on the temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Here we report on a counterintuitive increase in the population of a tree-nesting ant, Azteca sericeasur, in response to a drastic reduction in the number of potential nesting sites. This surprising result is comprehensible when viewed in the context of the self-organized spatial dynamics of the ants and their effect on the ants' dispersal-limited natural enemies. Approximately 30% of the trees in the study site, a coffee agroecosystem in southern Mexico, were pruned or felled over a two-year period, and yet the abundance of the ant nests more than doubled over the seven-year study. Throughout the transition, the spatial distribution of the ants maintained a power-law distribution - a signal of spatial self organization - but the local clustering of the nests was reduced post-pruning. A cellular automata model incorporating the changed spatial structure of the ants and the resulting partial escape from antagonists reproduced the observed increase in abundance, highlighting how self-organized spatial dynamics can profoundly influence the responses of ecosystems to perturbations.

  16. Population responses to environmental change in a tropical ant: the interaction of spatial and temporal dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doug Jackson

    Full Text Available Spatial structure can have a profound, but often underappreciated, effect on the temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Here we report on a counterintuitive increase in the population of a tree-nesting ant, Azteca sericeasur, in response to a drastic reduction in the number of potential nesting sites. This surprising result is comprehensible when viewed in the context of the self-organized spatial dynamics of the ants and their effect on the ants' dispersal-limited natural enemies. Approximately 30% of the trees in the study site, a coffee agroecosystem in southern Mexico, were pruned or felled over a two-year period, and yet the abundance of the ant nests more than doubled over the seven-year study. Throughout the transition, the spatial distribution of the ants maintained a power-law distribution - a signal of spatial self organization - but the local clustering of the nests was reduced post-pruning. A cellular automata model incorporating the changed spatial structure of the ants and the resulting partial escape from antagonists reproduced the observed increase in abundance, highlighting how self-organized spatial dynamics can profoundly influence the responses of ecosystems to perturbations.

  17. Selection in a subdivided population with local extinction and recolonization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, Joshua L

    2003-01-01

    In a subdivided population, local extinction and subsequent recolonization affect the fate of alleles. Of particular interest is the interaction of this force with natural selection. The effect of selection can be weakened by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. The behavior of a selected allele in such a population is shown to be equivalent to that of an allele with a different selection coefficient in an unstructured population with a different size. This equivalence allows use of established results for panmictic populations to predict such quantities as fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability, is decreased by extinction and recolonization. Thus deleterious alleles are more likely to fix, and advantageous alleles less likely to do so, in the presence of extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations. PMID:12807797

  18. Drawing on Dynamic Local Knowledge through Student-Generated Photography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles-Ritchie, Marilee; Monson, Bayley; Moses, Catherine

    2015-01-01

    In this research, the authors explored how teachers using student-generated photography draw on local knowledge. The study draws on the framework of funds of knowledge to highlight the assets marginalized students bring to the classroom and the need for culturally relevant pedagogy to address the needs of a diverse public school population. The…

  19. Segment-scale, force-level theory of mesoscopic dynamic localization and entropic elasticity in entangled chain polymer liquids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dell, Zachary E.; Schweizer, Kenneth S.

    2017-04-01

    We develop a segment-scale, force-based theory for the breakdown of the unentangled Rouse model and subsequent emergence of isotropic mesoscopic localization and entropic elasticity in chain polymer liquids in the absence of ergodicity-restoring anisotropic reptation or activated hopping motion. The theory is formulated in terms of a conformational N-dynamic-order-parameter generalized Langevin equation approach. It is implemented using a universal field-theoretic Gaussian thread model of polymer structure and closed at the level of the chain dynamic second moment matrix. The physical idea is that the isotropic Rouse model fails due to the dynamical emergence, with increasing chain length, of time-persistent intermolecular contacts determined by the combined influence of local uncrossability, long range polymer connectivity, and a self-consistent treatment of chain motion and the dynamic forces that hinder it. For long chain melts, the mesoscopic localization length (identified as the tube diameter) and emergent entropic elasticity predictions are in near quantitative agreement with experiment. Moreover, the onset chain length scales with the semi-dilute crossover concentration with a realistic numerical prefactor. Distinctive novel predictions are made for various off-diagonal correlation functions that quantify the full spatial structure of the dynamically localized polymer conformation. As the local excluded volume constraint and/or intrachain bonding spring are softened to allow chain crossability, the tube diameter is predicted to swell until it reaches the radius-of-gyration at which point mesoscopic localization vanishes in a discontinuous manner. A dynamic phase diagram for such a delocalization transition is constructed, which is qualitatively consistent with simulations and the classical concept of a critical entanglement degree of polymerization.

  20. seasonal population dynamics of rodents of mount chilalo, arsi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

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    ABSTRACT: A study on seasonal population dynamics of rodents was carried out on Mount. Chilalo from .... vegetation growth, availability of food and water, and ... vegetation (3,300–4,200 masl) (Alemayehu. Mengistu, 1975; APEDO and ABRDP, 2004). The mountain is one of the Afrotropical biodiversity hotspots areas.

  1. Population Dynamics of Biota on the Roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NITA ETIKAWATI

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Azolla was a special fern that their associations with Anabaena azollae able to fix free nitrogen from air, to produce protein. Although by the ages, biota diversity those habits on the roots of Azolla increased and effected to protein concentration. The research was to find out population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss and the growth peak. This study used Completely Randomized Design with 10 kinds of biota, i.e. bacteria, Fungi, Actinomycetes, Protozoa, Alga, Crustacean, Rotifers, Coelenterate, Insect and Molluscs, and it was used 3 replications. Research was conducted within 4 weeks and the populations of biota were observed every week. Data were statistically analyzed using Analysis Variant and Duncan’s Multiple Range Test. The population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss were influenced on its quantity and composition, and the growth peak is done in 2nd week.

  2. Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡

  3. Population dynamics of Ascaris suum in trickle-infected pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, Peter; Thamsborg, Stig M; Petersen, Heidi H; Kringel, Helene; Fredholm, Merete; Roepstorff, Allan

    2009-10-01

    The population dynamics of Ascaris suum was studied by long-term exposure of pigs to infective eggs. The pigs were experimentally inoculated with 25 A. suum eggs/kg/day, and 7, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 postinoculation (PI), respectively. Despite the fact that the pigs were continuously reinfected, dramatic reductions in numbers of liver lesions (white spots) and migrating lung larvae were observed as a function of time. However, even at the end of the study, a few larvae were able to complete migration, but these larvae seemed unable to mature in the small intestine. Thus, the adult worm population seemed to consist of worms from the first part of the exposure period. The noticeable decrease in number of white spots suggests that the level of exposure is not reflected in the number of white spots in the late phase of a continuous infection. The serum levels of A. suum L3-specific IgG1 and IgA were significantly elevated by week 4 PI, after which the antibody levels declined. The population dynamics and parasite regulating mechanisms are discussed for A. suum in pigs as well as for the closely related species A. lumbricoides in humans.

  4. Local dynamics of gap-junction-coupled interneuron networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lau, Troy; Zochowski, Michal; Gage, Gregory J; Berke, Joshua D

    2010-01-01

    Interneurons coupled by both electrical gap-junctions (GJs) and chemical GABAergic synapses are major components of forebrain networks. However, their contributions to the generation of specific activity patterns, and their overall contributions to network function, remain poorly understood. Here we demonstrate, using computational methods, that the topological properties of interneuron networks can elicit a wide range of activity dynamics, and either prevent or permit local pattern formation. We systematically varied the topology of GJ and inhibitory chemical synapses within simulated networks, by changing connection types from local to random, and changing the total number of connections. As previously observed we found that randomly coupled GJs lead to globally synchronous activity. In contrast, we found that local GJ connectivity may govern the formation of highly spatially heterogeneous activity states. These states are inherently temporally unstable when the input is uniformly random, but can rapidly stabilize when the network detects correlations or asymmetries in the inputs. We show a correspondence between this feature of network activity and experimental observations of transient stabilization of striatal fast-spiking interneurons (FSIs), in electrophysiological recordings from rats performing a simple decision-making task. We suggest that local GJ coupling enables an active search-and-select function of striatal FSIs, which contributes to the overall role of cortical-basal ganglia circuits in decision-making

  5. Localization of vector field on dynamical domain wall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masafumi Higuchi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the previous works (arXiv:1202.5375 and arXiv:1402.1346, the dynamical domain wall, where the four dimensional FRW universe is embedded in the five dimensional space–time, has been realized by using two scalar fields. In this paper, we consider the localization of vector field in three formulations. The first formulation was investigated in the previous paper (arXiv:1510.01099 for the U(1 gauge field. In the second formulation, we investigate the Dvali–Shifman mechanism (arXiv:hep-th/9612128, where the non-abelian gauge field is confined in the bulk but the gauge symmetry is spontaneously broken on the domain wall. In the third formulation, we investigate the Kaluza–Klein modes coming from the five dimensional graviton. In the Randall–Sundrum model, the graviton was localized on the brane. We show that the (5,μ components (μ=0,1,2,3 of the graviton are also localized on the domain wall and can be regarded as the vector field on the domain wall. There are, however, some corrections coming from the bulk extra dimension if the domain wall universe is expanding.

  6. Alleviating acid soil stress in cowpea with a local population of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Alleviating acid soil stress in cowpea with a local population of arbuscular ... Roots of the cowpea lines were all heavily colonized by the fungi and their leaf P was ... Total dry weight of inoculated cowpea was not affected by soil acidity while it ...

  7. Phase control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Shi; Wu Jinhui; Gao Jinyue; Pan Chunliu

    2002-01-01

    We use the relative phase of two coherent fields for the control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system. The population inversion and gain with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer are shown as the relative phase is varied. We support our results by numerical calculation and analytical explanation

  8. Cholera and shigellosis in Bangladesh: similarities and differences in population dynamics under climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascual, M.; Cash, B.; Reiner, R.; King, A.; Emch, M.; Yunus, M.; Faruque, A. S.

    2012-12-01

    The influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large scale, regional, phenomenon, and as such, has been previously addressed for cholera with temporal models that do not incorporate fine-scale spatial structure. In our previous work, evidence for a role of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on cholera in Bangladesh was elucidated, and shown to influence the regional climate through precipitation. With a probabilistic spatial model for cholera dynamics in the megacity of Dhaka, we found that the action of climate variability (ENSO and flooding) is localized: there is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest of the city. Here, we consider long-term surveillance data for shigellosis, another diarrheal disease that coexists with cholera in Bangladesh. We compare the patterns of association with climate variables for these two diseases in a rural setting, as well as the spatial structure in their spatio-temporal dynamics in an urban one. Evidence for similar patterns is presented, and discussed in the context of the differences in the routes of transmission of the two diseases and the proposed role of an environmental reservoir in cholera. The similarities provide evidence for a more general influence of hydrology and of socio-economic factors underlying human susceptibility and sanitary conditions.

  9. Spatial and temporal dynamics of the genetic organization of small mammal populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.H.; Manlove, M.N.; Joule, J.

    1978-01-01

    A functional population is a group of organisms and their offspring that contributes to a common gene pool within a certain area and time period. It is also the unit of evolution and should be viewed both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Selection, drift, dispersal, and mutation can alter the composition of populations. Spatial heterogeneity in allele frequencies argues for a conceptual model that has a series of relatively small populations semi-isolated from one another. Because of the relatively high levels of genetic variability characteristic of most mammalian species, significant amounts of gene flow between these spatially subdivided populations must occur when longer time periods are considered. Fluctuations in the genetic structure of populations seem to be important in altering the fitness of the individuals within the populations. The interaction of populations through gene flow is important in changing the levels of intrapopulational genetic variability. Populations can be characterized as existing on a continuum from relatively stable to unstable numbers and by other associated changes in their characteristics. Temporal changes in allele frequency occur in a variety of mammals. Conceptually, a species can be viewed as a series of dynamic populations that vary in numbers and quality in both a spatial and temporal context even over short distances and time periods. Short term changes in the quality of individuals in a population can be important in altering the short term dynamics of a population

  10. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  11. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Paprocki

    Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

  12. Dynamical self-arrest in symmetric and asymmetric diblock copolymer melts using a replica approach within a local theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Sangwook

    2009-03-01

    We investigate dynamical self-arrest in a diblock copolymer melt using a replica approach within a self-consistent local method based on dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT). The local replica approach effectively predicts (chiN)_{A} for dynamical self-arrest in a block copolymer melt for symmetric and asymmetric cases. We discuss the competition of the cubic and quartic interactions in the Landau free energy for a block copolymer melt in stabilizing a glassy state depending on the chain length. Our local replica theory provides a universal value for the dynamical self-arrest in block copolymer melts with (chiN)_{A} approximately 10.5+64N;{-3/10} for the symmetric case.

  13. Morphometric and Phylogenic Analysis of Six Population Indonesian Local Goats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Batubara

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The research objectives were to characterize morphometric and genetic distance between populations of Indonesian local goats. The morphological discriminant and canonical analysis were carried out to estimate the phylogenic relationship and determine the discriminant variable between Benggala goats (n= 96, Marica (n= 60, Jawarandu (n= 94, (Kacang (n= 217, Muara (n= 30 and Samosir (n= 42. Discriminant analysis used to clasify body weight and body measurements. In the analysis of variance showed that body weight and body measurement (body length, height at withers, thorax width, thorax height, hert girth, skull width and height, tail length and width, ear length and width of Muara goats was higher (P<0.05 compared to the other groups, and the lowest was in Marica goats. The smallest genetic distance was between Marica and Samosir (11.207 and the highest were between Muara and Benggala (255.110. The highest similarity between individual within population was found in Kacang (99.28% and the lowest in Samosir (82.50%. The canonical analysis showed high correlation on canon circumference, body weight, skull width, skull height, and tail width variables so these six variables can be used as distinguishing variables among population. The result from Mahalonobis distance for phenogram tree and canonical analysis showed that six populations of Indonesian local goats were divided into six breed of goats: the first was Muara, the second was Jawarandu, the third was Kacang, the fourth was Benggala, the fifth was Samosir and the sixth was Marica goats. The diversity of body size and body weight of goats was observed quite large, so the chances of increasing productivity could be made through selection and mating programs.

  14. Dog and cat management through sterilization: Implications for population dynamics and veterinary public policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Ricardo Augusto; Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; Guilloux, Aline Gil Alves; Moretti, Caio Figueiredo; de Lucca, Tosca; Rodrigues, Ricardo Conde Alves; Castagna, Cláudio Luiz; Presotto, Douglas; Kronitzky, Yury Cezar; Grisi-Filho, José Henrique Hildebrand; Ferreira, Fernando; Amaku, Marcos

    2015-11-01

    The present study aimed to compare different sterilization scenarios allowing the adoption of the most adequate strategy to control owned dog and cat population sizes as the official veterinary public policy for animal control in an urban area of Campinas municipality, Brazil. To achieve this goal, the vital parameters of the owned pet population were measured in a neighborhood of Campinas called Jardim Vila Olimpia through questionnaires used in two census studies performed in February 2012 and June 2013. Different hypothetical sterilization scenarios were compared with the scenario of a single sterilization campaign performed in the study area between the census studies. Using a deterministic mathematical model, population dynamics were simulated for these different scenarios. We have observed that for both owned dogs and cats, the impact on the population size achieved by a single sterilization campaign would be diluted over the years, equating to the impact achieved by the usual sterilization rate practiced before the sterilization campaign yearly. Moreover, using local and global sensitivity analyses, we assessed the relative influence on animal population evolution of each vital parameter used in the mathematical models. The more influential parameters for both species were the carrying capacity of the environment and sterilization rates of males and females (for both species). We observed that even with sterilizing 100% of the intact animals annually, it would not be possible to obtain proportions greater than 86% and 88% of sterilized dogs and cats, respectively, after 20 years due to the high introduction of new intact animals. There is no public dog and cat sterilization service in place in the city, and sporadic and local sterilization campaigns are performed with a prior communication to the owners to bring their animals to be sterilized in a selected veterinary facility. If a sterilization campaign was performed annually in the study area, it would

  15. Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ONOS

    2010-01-25

    Jan 25, 2010 ... Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of ... 25.78, 25.78, 86.26, 24.73, 68.0, 26.8 and 26.8 kDa proteins and equivalent to Cyt, Cry5 and Cry2 toxins ..... Molecular weight (kDa) of protein fractions of the BT isolates.

  16. Population dynamics of the invasive fish, Gambusia affinis , in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Repeated-measures ANOVA analyses on the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of G. affinis between sampling events and dams revealed significant differences in population dynamics among dams, although an overall trend of rapid increase followed by plateau in summer, with a rapid decline in winter was seen in most dams.

  17. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  18. Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

    2016-01-01

    The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

  19. LOCAL POPULATION CHANGE AND VARIATIONS IN RACIAL INTEGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellman, Benjamin; Spielman, Seth E; Franklin, Rachel S

    2018-03-01

    While population growth has been consistently tied to decreasing racial segregation at the metropolitan level in the United States, little work has been done to relate small-scale changes in population size to integration. We address this question through a novel technique that tracks population changes by race and ethnicity for comparable geographies in both 2000 and 2010. Using the Theil Index, we analyze the fifty most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 2010 for changes in multigroup segregation. We classify local areas by their net population change between 2000 and 2010 using a novel unit of analysis based on aggregating census blocks. We find strong evidence that growing parts of rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the United States are crucial to understanding regional differences in segregation that have emerged in past decades. Multigroup segregation declined the most in growing parts of growing metropolitan areas. Comparatively, growing parts of shrinking or stagnant metropolitan areas were less diverse and had smaller declines in segregation. We also find that local areas with shrinking populations had disproportionately high minority representation in 2000 before population loss took place. We conclude that the regional context of population growth or decline has important consequences for the residential mixing of racial groups.

  20. Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-11-01

    We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

  1. Synchronization and survival of connected bacterial populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokhale, Shreyas; Conwill, Arolyn; Ranjan, Tanvi; Gore, Jeff

    Migration plays a vital role in controlling population dynamics of species occupying distinct habitat patches. While local populations are vulnerable to extinction due to demographic or environmental stochasticity, migration from neighboring habitat patches can rescue these populations through colonization of uninhabited regions. However, a large migratory flux can synchronize the population dynamics in connected patches, thereby enhancing the risk of global extinction during periods of depression in population size. Here, we investigate this trade-off between local rescue and global extinction experimentally using laboratory populations of E. coli bacteria. Our model system consists of co-cultures of ampicillin resistant and chloramphenicol resistant strains that form a cross-protection mutualism and exhibit period-3 oscillations in the relative population density in the presence of both antibiotics. We quantify the onset of synchronization of oscillations in a pair of co-cultures connected by migration and demonstrate that period-3 oscillations can be disturbed for moderate rates of migration. These features are consistent with simulations of a mechanistic model of antibiotic deactivation in our system. The simulations further predict that the probability of survival of connected populations in high concentrations of antibiotics is maximized at intermediate migration rates. We verify this prediction experimentally and show that survival is enhanced through a combination of disturbance of period-3 oscillations and stochastic re-colonization events.

  2. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  3. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  4. An obligatory bacterial mutualism in a multi-drug environment exhibits strong oscillatory population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff

    2014-03-01

    A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.

  5. Weed populations and crop rotations: exploring dynamics of a structured periodic system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, S.K.; Bosch, F. van den; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2002-01-01

    The periodic growing of a certain set of crops in a prescribed order, called a crop rotation, is considered to be an important tool for managing weed populations. Nevertheless, the effects of crop rotations on weed population dynamics are not well understood. Explanations for rotation effects on

  6. Delay-active damage versus non-local enhancement for anisotropic damage dynamics computations with alternated loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desmorat, R.; Chambart, M.; Gatuingt, F.; Guilbaud, D.

    2010-01-01

    Anisotropic damage thermodynamics framework allows to model the concrete-like materials behavior and in particular their dissymmetric tension/compression response. To deal with dynamics applications such as impact, it is furthermore necessary to take into account the strain rate effect observed experimentally. This is done in the present work by means of anisotropic visco-damage, by introducing a material strain rate effect in the cases of positive hydrostatic stresses only. The proposed delay-damage law assumes no viscous effect in compression as the consideration of inertia effects proves sufficient to model the apparent material strength increase. High-rate dynamics applications imply to deal with wave propagation and reflection which can generate alternated loading in the impacted structure. In order to do so, the key concept of active damage is defined and introduced within both the damage criterion and the delay-damage evolution law. At the structural level, strain localization often leads to spurious mesh dependency. Three-dimensional Finite Element computations of dynamic tensile tests by spalling are presented, with visco-damage and either without or with non-local enhancement. Delay-damage, as introduced, regularizes the solution in fast dynamics. The location of the macro-crack initiated is found influenced by non-local regularization. The strain rate range in which each enhancement, delay-damage or non-local enhancement, has a regularizing effect is studied. (authors)

  7. Effect of speed on local dynamic stability of locomotion under different task constraints in running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehdizadeh, Sina; Arshi, Ahmed Reza; Davids, Keith

    2014-01-01

    A number of studies have investigated effects of speed on local dynamic stability of walking, although this relationship has been rarely investigated under changing task constraints, such as during forward and backward running. To rectify this gap in the literature, the aim of this study was to investigate the effect of running speed on local dynamic stability of forward and backward running on a treadmill. Fifteen healthy male participants took part in this study. Participants ran in forward and backward directions at speeds of 80%, 100% and 120% of their preferred running speed. The three-dimensional motion of a C7 marker was recorded using a motion capture system. Local dynamic stability of the marker was quantified using short- and long-term largest finite-time Lyapunov exponents (LyE). Results showed that short-term largest finite-time LyE values increased with participant speed meaning that local dynamic stability decreased with increasing speed. Long-term largest finite-time LyEs, however, remained unaffected as speed increased. Results of this study indicated that, as in walking, slow running is more stable than fast running. These findings improve understanding of how stability is regulated when constraints on the speed of movements is altered. Implications for the design of rehabilitation or sport practice programmes suggest how task constraints could be manipulated to facilitate adaptations in locomotion stability during athletic training.

  8. [Population in the northern border area. Urban dynamism and binational interrelation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham Chande, R

    1988-01-01

    The 3300 km border between Mexico and the US constitutes the geopolitical separation between an underdeveloped country on the 1 hand and 1 of the most technologically and economically powerful countries in the world on the other. The border region is characterized by the contrasts on either side of the border and by the strong interrelation between both sides. Vast streams of persons, merchandise, money, services, communications, and cultural influences flow from 1 side to the other. The border region as a seat of population has a recent history. The border was defined in near current form only in the mid-19th century, when the expansionist tendencies of the US encountered a vast area of very sparse population. In 1900, the principal localities of the border zone had only about 39,000 inhabitants, of whom fewer than 5000 lived west of Ciudad Juarez. Between 1910-20, the population of the border region increased from 53,000 to 96,000 as a result of migrants fleeing the ravages of the revolution. The population of the border region was estimated at 3.826 million in 1988, resulting from rates of growth above Mexico's national average. Settlement in the area has depended on events and conditions in Mexico and on such US occurrences as Prohibition, the Great Depression, the 2nd World War, the Bracero program, and the Program of Border Industrialization. 82% of the border population lives in urban zones, partly because of lack of water. 80% of the urban population is concentrated in 6 cities, Juarez, Tijuana, Mexicali, Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa, and Matamoros. Much of the population of the 6 cities is composed of persons born elsewhere. The border area also has a large floating population of undocumented migrants in transit to or from the US. The high rates of urbanization and of binational interaction are reflected in demographic dynamics. In 1979, 71% of women in union in the border area vs 54% in the rest of Mexico had used contraception, and the infant mortality rate was

  9. Hospitalizations for cancer in international migrants versus local population in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyarte, Marcela; Delgado, Iris; Pedrero, Víctor; Agar, Lorenzo; Cabieses, Báltica

    2018-04-09

    To compare cancer hospital morbidity among the local population and the immigrant population in Chile. This is a prevalence study based on the analysis of hospital discharges of all the health centers of Chile. Cancer hospital discharges were characterized in 2012 according to the migratory status. The crude and specific rates of hospital morbidity for this cause were estimated for the analysis of their association with migratory status using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. The neoplasms were the third cause of hospital discharges for immigrants and the seventh one for Chileans. The adjusted rate of cancer hospital discharges was higher for Chileans than immigrants, and the latter had fewer days of hospitalization and greater proportion of surgical interventions. In the group of immigrants, cancer hospital discharges mainly corresponded to patients belonging to the private system (46%), and in the group of Chileans they mainly corresponded to patients in the public system (71.1%). We observed a large difference in the proportion of cancer hospital discharges for patients with no health insurance between the two populations (22.6%: immigrants, 1.0%: Chileans). In both populations, the three most frequent types of cancer were: (i) lymphoid tissue, hematopoietic organs, and related tissues, (ii) digestive organs, and (iii) breast cancer. Models of differentiated care should be considered for immigrants, with the creation of specific programs of information, coverage, and protection against cancer. More information on this problem must be generated at the local and international level.

  10. Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

    2017-01-01

    It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

  11. Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Zhao

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911. Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

  12. Neutral Evolution in a Biological Population as Diffusion in Phenotype Space: Reproduction with Local Mutation but without Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Daniel John; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

    2007-03-01

    The process of “evolutionary diffusion,” i.e., reproduction with local mutation but without selection in a biological population, resembles standard diffusion in many ways. However, evolutionary diffusion allows the formation of localized peaks that undergo drift, even in the infinite population limit. We relate a microscopic evolution model to a stochastic model which we solve fully. This allows us to understand the large population limit, relates evolution to diffusion, and shows that independent local mutations act as a diffusion of interacting particles taking larger steps.

  13. Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive

  14. Latitudinal Gradient in Otolith Shape among Local Populations of Atlantic Herring (Clupea harengus L.) in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libungan, Lísa Anne; Slotte, Aril; Husebø, Åse; Godiksen, Jane A; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

    2015-01-01

    Otolith shape analysis of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in Norwegian waters shows significant differentiation among fjords and a latitudinal gradient along the coast where neighbouring populations are more similar to each other than to those sampled at larger distances. The otolith shape was obtained using quantitative shape analysis, the outlines were transformed with Wavelet and analysed with multivariate methods. The observed morphological differences are likely to reflect environmental differences but indicate low dispersal among the local herring populations. Otolith shape variation suggests also limited exchange between the local populations and their oceanic counterparts, which could be due to differences in spawning behaviour. Herring from the most northerly location (69°N) in Balsfjord, which is genetically more similar to Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), differed in otolith shape from all the other populations. Our results suggest that the semi-enclosed systems, where the local populations live and breed, are efficient barriers for dispersal. Otolith shape can thus serve as a marker to identify the origin of herring along the coast of Norway.

  15. Latitudinal Gradient in Otolith Shape among Local Populations of Atlantic Herring (Clupea harengus L.) in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libungan, Lísa Anne; Slotte, Aril; Husebø, Åse; Godiksen, Jane A.; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

    2015-01-01

    Otolith shape analysis of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in Norwegian waters shows significant differentiation among fjords and a latitudinal gradient along the coast where neighbouring populations are more similar to each other than to those sampled at larger distances. The otolith shape was obtained using quantitative shape analysis, the outlines were transformed with Wavelet and analysed with multivariate methods. The observed morphological differences are likely to reflect environmental differences but indicate low dispersal among the local herring populations. Otolith shape variation suggests also limited exchange between the local populations and their oceanic counterparts, which could be due to differences in spawning behaviour. Herring from the most northerly location (69°N) in Balsfjord, which is genetically more similar to Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), differed in otolith shape from all the other populations. Our results suggest that the semi-enclosed systems, where the local populations live and breed, are efficient barriers for dispersal. Otolith shape can thus serve as a marker to identify the origin of herring along the coast of Norway. PMID:26101885

  16. Supersonic Localized Excitations Mediate Microscopic Dynamic Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghaffari, H. O.; Griffith, W. A.; Pec, M.

    2017-12-01

    A moving rupture front activates a fault patch by increasing stress above a threshold strength level. Subsequent failure yields fast slip which releases stored energy in the rock. A fraction of the released energy is radiated as seismic waves carrying information about the earthquake source. While this simplified model is widely accepted, the detailed evolution from the onset of dynamic failure to eventual re-equilibration is still poorly understood. To study dynamic failure of brittle solids we indented thin sheets of single mineral crystals and recorded the emitted ultrasound signals (high frequency analogues to seismic waves) using an array of 8 to 16 ultrasound probes. The simple geometry of the experiments allows us to unravel details of dynamic stress history of the laboratory earthquake sources. A universal pattern of failure is observed. First, stress increases over a short time period (1 - 2 µs), followed by rapid weakening (≈ 15 µs). Rapid weakening is followed by two distinct relaxation phases: a temporary quasi-steady state phase (10 µs) followed by a long-term relaxation phase (> 50 µs). We demonstrate that the dynamic stress history during failure is governed by formation and interaction of local non-dispersive excitations, or solitons. The formation and annihilation of solitons mediates the microscopic fast weakening phase, during which extreme acceleration and collision of solitons lead to non-Newtonian behavior and Lorentz contraction, i.e. shortening of solitons' characteristic length. Interestingly, a soliton can propagate as fast as 37 km/s, much faster than the p-wave velocity, implying that a fraction of the energy transmits through soliton excitations. The quasi-steady state phase delays the long-term ageing of the damaged crystal, implying a potentially weaker material. Our results open new horizons for understanding the complexity of earthquake sources, and, more generally, non-equilibrium relaxation of many body systems.

  17. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  18. Distribution and population dynamics of Rhizobium sp. introduced into soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, J.

    1989-01-01

    In this thesis the population dynamics of bacteria introduced into soil was studied. In the introduction, the existence of microhabitats favourable for the survival of indigenous bacteria is discussed. Knowledge about the distribution of introduced bacteria over

  19. Dynamics of temporally localized states in passively mode-locked semiconductor lasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schelte, C.; Javaloyes, J.; Gurevich, S. V.

    2018-05-01

    We study the emergence and the stability of temporally localized structures in the output of a semiconductor laser passively mode locked by a saturable absorber in the long-cavity regime. For large yet realistic values of the linewidth enhancement factor, we disclose the existence of secondary dynamical instabilities where the pulses develop regular and subsequent irregular temporal oscillations. By a detailed bifurcation analysis we show that additional solution branches that consist of multipulse (molecules) solutions exist. We demonstrate that the various solution curves for the single and multipeak pulses can splice and intersect each other via transcritical bifurcations, leading to a complex web of solutions. Our analysis is based on a generic model of mode locking that consists of a time-delayed dynamical system, but also on a much more numerically efficient, yet approximate, partial differential equation. We compare the results of the bifurcation analysis of both models in order to assess up to which point the two approaches are equivalent. We conclude our analysis by the study of the influence of group velocity dispersion, which is only possible in the framework of the partial differential equation model, and we show that it may have a profound impact on the dynamics of the localized states.

  20. Cellular-automata model of the dwarf shrubs populations and communities dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Komarov

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The probabilistic cellular-automata model of development and long-time dynamics of dwarf shrub populations and communities is developed. It is based on the concept of discrete description of the plant ontogenesis and joint model approaches in terms of probabilistic cellular automata and L-systems by Lindenmayer. Short representation of the basic model allows evaluation of the approach and software implementation. The main variables of the model are a number of partial bushes in clones or area projective cover. The model allows us to investigate the conditions of self-maintenance and sustainability population under different environmental conditions (inaccessibility of the territory for settlement, mosaic moisture conditions of soil and wealth. The model provides a forecast of the total biomass dynamics shrubs and their fractions (stems, leaves, roots, fine roots, fruits on the basis of the data obtained in the discrete description of ontogenesis and further information on the productivity of the plant fractions. The inclusion of the joint dynamics of biomass of shrubs and soil in EFIMOD models cycle of carbon and nitrogen to evaluate the role of shrubs in these circulations, especially at high impact, such as forest fires and clear cutting, allow forecasting of the dynamics of populations and ecosystem functions of shrubs (regulation of biogeochemical cycles maintaining biodiversity, participation in the creation of non-wood products with changing climatic conditions and strong damaging effects (logging, fires; and application of the models developed to investigate the stability and productivity of shrubs and their participation in the cycle of carbon and nitrogen in different climatic and edaphic conditions.

  1. Real-time prediction of respiratory motion based on a local dynamic model in an augmented space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, S-M; Jung, B-H; Ruan, D

    2011-03-21

    Motion-adaptive radiotherapy aims to deliver ablative radiation dose to the tumor target with minimal normal tissue exposure, by accounting for real-time target movement. In practice, prediction is usually necessary to compensate for system latency induced by measurement, communication and control. This work focuses on predicting respiratory motion, which is most dominant for thoracic and abdominal tumors. We develop and investigate the use of a local dynamic model in an augmented space, motivated by the observation that respiratory movement exhibits a locally circular pattern in a plane augmented with a delayed axis. By including the angular velocity as part of the system state, the proposed dynamic model effectively captures the natural evolution of respiratory motion. The first-order extended Kalman filter is used to propagate and update the state estimate. The target location is predicted by evaluating the local dynamic model equations at the required prediction length. This method is complementary to existing work in that (1) the local circular motion model characterizes 'turning', overcoming the limitation of linear motion models; (2) it uses a natural state representation including the local angular velocity and updates the state estimate systematically, offering explicit physical interpretations; (3) it relies on a parametric model and is much less data-satiate than the typical adaptive semiparametric or nonparametric method. We tested the performance of the proposed method with ten RPM traces, using the normalized root mean squared difference between the predicted value and the retrospective observation as the error metric. Its performance was compared with predictors based on the linear model, the interacting multiple linear models and the kernel density estimator for various combinations of prediction lengths and observation rates. The local dynamic model based approach provides the best performance for short to medium prediction lengths under relatively

  2. Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

    2013-01-01

    Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

  3. Context-dependent colonization dynamics: Regional reward contagion drives local compression in aquatic beetles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pintar, Matthew R; Resetarits, William J

    2017-09-01

    Habitat selection by colonizing organisms is an important factor in determining species abundance and community dynamics at multiple spatial scales. Many organisms select habitat patches based on intrinsic patch quality, but patches exist in complex landscapes linked by dispersal and colonization, forming metapopulations and metacommunities. Perceived patch quality can be influenced by neighbouring patches through spatial contagion, wherein perceived quality of one patch can extend beyond its borders and either increase or decrease the colonization of neighbouring patches and localities. These spatially explicit colonization dynamics can result in habitat compression, wherein more colonists occupy a patch or locality than in the absence of spatial context dependence. Previous work on contagion/compression focused primarily on the role of predators in driving colonization patterns. Our goal was to determine whether resource abundance can drive multi-scale colonization dynamics of aquatic beetles through the processes of contagion and compression in naturally colonized experimental pools. We established two levels (high/low quality) of within-patch resource abundances (leaf litter) using an experimental landscape of mesocosms, and assayed colonization by 35 species of aquatic beetles. Patches were arranged in localities (sets of two patches), which consisted of a combination of two patch-level resource levels in a 2 × 2 factorial design, allowing us to assay colonization at both locality and patch levels. We demonstrate that patterns of species abundance and richness of colonizing aquatic beetles are determined by patch quality and context-dependent processes at multiple spatial scales. Localities that consisted of at least one high-quality patch were colonized at equivalent rates that were higher than localities containing only low-quality patches, displaying regional reward contagion. In localities that consisted of one high- and one low-quality patch, reward

  4. Transmission or Within-Host Dynamics Driving Pulses of Zoonotic Viruses in Reservoir-Host Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raina K Plowright

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Progress in combatting zoonoses that emerge from wildlife is often constrained by limited knowledge of the biology of pathogens within reservoir hosts. We focus on the host-pathogen dynamics of four emerging viruses associated with bats: Hendra, Nipah, Ebola, and Marburg viruses. Spillover of bat infections to humans and domestic animals often coincides with pulses of viral excretion within bat populations, but the mechanisms driving such pulses are unclear. Three hypotheses dominate current research on these emerging bat infections. First, pulses of viral excretion could reflect seasonal epidemic cycles driven by natural variations in population densities and contact rates among hosts. If lifelong immunity follows recovery, viruses may disappear locally but persist globally through migration; in either case, new outbreaks occur once births replenish the susceptible pool. Second, epidemic cycles could be the result of waning immunity within bats, allowing local circulation of viruses through oscillating herd immunity. Third, pulses could be generated by episodic shedding from persistently infected bats through a combination of physiological and ecological factors. The three scenarios can yield similar patterns in epidemiological surveys, but strategies to predict or manage spillover risk resulting from each scenario will be different. We outline an agenda for research on viruses emerging from bats that would allow for differentiation among the scenarios and inform development of evidence-based interventions to limit threats to human and animal health. These concepts and methods are applicable to a wide range of pathogens that affect humans, domestic animals, and wildlife.

  5. Local Hawking temperature for dynamical black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayward, S A; Criscienzo, R Di; Nadalini, M; Vanzo, L; Zerbini, S

    2009-01-01

    A local Hawking temperature is derived for any future outer trapping horizon in spherical symmetry, using a Hamilton-Jacobi variant of the Parikh-Wilczek tunneling method. It is given by a dynamical surface gravity as defined geometrically. The operational meaning of the temperature is that Kodama observers just outside the horizon measure an invariantly redshifted temperature, diverging at the horizon itself. In static, asymptotically flat cases, the Hawking temperature as usually defined by the Killing vector agrees in standard cases, but generally differs by a relative redshift factor between the horizon and infinity, this being the temperature measured by static observers at infinity. Likewise, the geometrical surface gravity reduces to the Newtonian surface gravity in the Newtonian limit, while the Killing definition instead reflects measurements at infinity. This may resolve a long-standing puzzle concerning the Hawking temperature for the extremal limit of the charged stringy black hole, namely that it is the local temperature which vanishes. In general, this confirms the quasi-stationary picture of black-hole evaporation in early stages. However, the geometrical surface gravity is generally not the surface gravity of a static black hole with the same parameters. (fast track communication)

  6. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  7. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-01-01

    This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade ar...

  8. Yeast Population Dynamics in Spontaneous and Inoculated Alcoholic Fermentations of Zametovka Must

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franc Cus

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Inoculated fermentations, which are more rapid and more reliable than spontaneous fermentations, and assure predictable wine quality, are nowadays prevalent in Slovenia’s large-scale wine production. However, spontaneous fermentation strengthens local characteristics of wine and offers opportunities for technological innovation. In the 1999 vintage, spontaneous and inoculated fermentations of Zametovka (Vitis vinifera grape must were studied. Zametovka is the main red variety in production of traditional Slovene red blend wine, Cvicek. The diversity of yeast species and strains in both of the investigated fermentations was determined by molecular and traditional identification methods. The outset of alcoholic fermentation, yeast growth kinetics, and yeast population dynamics presents the main differences between the examined fermentations. Yeast population diversity was higher in the spontaneous process. Dominant yeast isolates from spontaneous fermentation were identified as Candida stellata, Hanseniaspora uvarum and Saccharomyces cerevisiae; whereas Saccharomyces bayanus, Pichia kluyveri, Pichia membranifaciens and Torulaspora delbrueckiim were found less frequently. Dominant species in the inoculated fermentation was Saccharomyces cerevisiae; other species found in smaller numbers were Candida stellata, Hanseniaspora uvarum and Debaryomyces hansenii var. hansenii. Using PFGE, we were able to distinguish among 15 different Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains and three different Saccharomyces bayanus strains isolated from spontaneous fermentation, whereas, in the case of inoculated fermentation, only two Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains were found. Their chromosomal patterns coincide with the chromosomal patterns of the starter culture strains.

  9. Population dynamics of Eldana saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae): application of a biophysical model to understand phenological variation in an agricultural pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleynhans, E; Barton, M G; Conlong, D E; Terblanche, J S

    2017-08-08

    Understanding pest population dynamics and seasonal phenology is a critical component of modern integrated pest-management programs. Accurate forecasting allows timely, cost-effective interventions, including maximum efficacy of, for example, biological control and/or sterile insect technique. Due to the variation in life stage-related sensitivity toward climate, insect pest population abundance models are often not easily interpreted or lack direct relevance to management strategies in the field. Here we apply a process-based (biophysical) model that incorporates climate data with life stage-dependent physiology and life history to attempt to predict Eldana saccharina life stage and generation turnover in sugarcane fields. Fitness traits are modelled at two agricultural locations in South Africa that differ in average temperature (hereafter a cold and a warm site). We test whether the life stage population structures in the field entering winter and local climate during winter directly affect development rates, and therefore interact to determine the population dynamics and phenological responses of E. saccharina in subsequent spring and summer seasons. The model predicts that: (1) E. saccharina can cycle through more generations at the warm site where fewer hours of cold and heat stress are endured, and (2) at the cold site, overwintering as pupae (rather than larvae) confer higher relative fitness and fecundity in the subsequent summer adult moths. The model predictions were compared with a large dataset of field observations from scouting records. Model predictions for larval presence (or absence) generally overlapped well with positive (or negative) scout records. These results are important for integrated pest management strategies by providing a useful foundation for future population dynamics models, and are applicable to a variety of agricultural landscapes, but especially the sugarcane industry of South Africa.

  10. Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

    2012-02-01

    Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

  11. Analysis of Population Diversity of Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingjian Ni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In evolutionary algorithm, population diversity is an important factor for solving performance. In this paper, combined with some population diversity analysis methods in other evolutionary algorithms, three indicators are introduced to be measures of population diversity in PSO algorithms, which are standard deviation of population fitness values, population entropy, and Manhattan norm of standard deviation in population positions. The three measures are used to analyze the population diversity in a relatively new PSO variant—Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPPSO. The results show that the three measure methods can fully reflect the evolution of population diversity in DPPSO algorithms from different angles, and we also discuss the impact of population diversity on the DPPSO variants. The relevant conclusions of the population diversity on DPPSO can be used to analyze, design, and improve the DPPSO algorithms, thus improving optimization performance, which could also be beneficial to understand the working mechanism of DPPSO theoretically.

  12. Probing the dynamics of complexed local anesthetics via neutron scattering spectroscopy and DFT calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Longo Martins, Murillo; Eckert, Juergen; Jacobsen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Since potential changes in the dynamics and mobility of drugs upon complexation for delivery may affect their ultimate efficacy, we have investigated the dynamics of two local anesthetic molecules, bupivacaine (BVC, C18H28N2O) and ropivacaine (RVC, C17H26N2O), in both their crystalline forms...

  13. Bending localization of nitrous oxide under anharmonicity and Fermi coupling: the dynamical potential approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Chi; Wu Guo-Zhen; Fang Chao

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the vibrational nonlinear dynamics of nitrous oxide with Fermi coupling between the symmetric stretching and bending coordinates by classical dynamical potential approach. This is a global approach in the sense that the overall dynamics is evidenced by the classical nonlinear variables such as the fixed points and the focus are on a set of levels instead of individual ones. The dynamics of nitrous oxide is demonstrated to be not so much dependent on the excitation energy. Moreover, the localized bending mode is shown to be ubiquitous in all the energy range studied

  14. Scaling of the mean and variance of population dynamics under fluctuating regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertoldi, Cino; Faurby, S; Reed, D H; Knape, J; Björklund, M; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Loeschcke, V; Bach, L A

    2014-12-01

    Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on the interactions between exogenous (biotic and abiotic) and endogenous (e.g., demographic and genetic) drivers of population dynamics. Recent work focuses on the autocorrelation structure of environmental perturbations and its effects on the persistence of populations. Accurate estimation of extinction times and especially determination of the mechanisms affecting extinction times is important for biodiversity conservation. Here we examine the interaction between environmental fluctuations and the scaling effect of the mean population size with its variance. We investigate how interactions between environmental and demographic stochasticity can affect the mean time to extinction, change optimal patch size dynamics, and how it can alter the often-assumed linear relationship between the census size and the effective population size. The importance of the correlation between environmental and demographic variation depends on the relative importance of the two types of variation. We found the correlation to be important when the two types of variation were approximately equal; however, the importance of the correlation diminishes as one source of variation dominates. The implications of these findings are discussed from a conservation and eco-evolutionary point of view.

  15. Local Dynamics of Baroclinic Waves in the Martian Atmosphere

    KAUST Repository

    Kavulich, Michael J.

    2013-11-01

    The paper investigates the processes that drive the spatiotemporal evolution of baroclinic transient waves in the Martian atmosphere by a simulation experiment with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Mars general circulation model (GCM). The main diagnostic tool of the study is the (local) eddy kinetic energy equation. Results are shown for a prewinter season of the Northern Hemisphere, in which a deep baroclinic wave of zonal wavenumber 2 circles the planet at an eastward phase speed of about 70° Sol-1 (Sol is a Martian day). The regular structure of the wave gives the impression that the classical models of baroclinic instability, which describe the underlying process by a temporally unstable global wave (e.g., Eady model and Charney model), may have a direct relevance for the description of the Martian baroclinic waves. The results of the diagnostic calculations show, however, that while the Martian waves remain zonally global features at all times, there are large spatiotemporal changes in their amplitude. The most intense episodes of baroclinic energy conversion, which take place in the two great plain regions (Acidalia Planitia and Utopia Planitia), are strongly localized in both space and time. In addition, similar to the situation for terrestrial baroclinic waves, geopotential flux convergence plays an important role in the dynamics of the downstream-propagating unstable waves. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.

  16. Local Dynamics of Baroclinic Waves in the Martian Atmosphere

    KAUST Repository

    Kavulich, Michael J.; Szunyogh, Istvan; Gyarmati, Gyorgyi; Wilson, R. John

    2013-01-01

    The paper investigates the processes that drive the spatiotemporal evolution of baroclinic transient waves in the Martian atmosphere by a simulation experiment with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Mars general circulation model (GCM). The main diagnostic tool of the study is the (local) eddy kinetic energy equation. Results are shown for a prewinter season of the Northern Hemisphere, in which a deep baroclinic wave of zonal wavenumber 2 circles the planet at an eastward phase speed of about 70° Sol-1 (Sol is a Martian day). The regular structure of the wave gives the impression that the classical models of baroclinic instability, which describe the underlying process by a temporally unstable global wave (e.g., Eady model and Charney model), may have a direct relevance for the description of the Martian baroclinic waves. The results of the diagnostic calculations show, however, that while the Martian waves remain zonally global features at all times, there are large spatiotemporal changes in their amplitude. The most intense episodes of baroclinic energy conversion, which take place in the two great plain regions (Acidalia Planitia and Utopia Planitia), are strongly localized in both space and time. In addition, similar to the situation for terrestrial baroclinic waves, geopotential flux convergence plays an important role in the dynamics of the downstream-propagating unstable waves. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.

  17. [Population dynamics of oligosporous actinomycetes in Chernozem soil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenova, G M; Mikhaĭlova, N V; Zviagintsev, D G

    2000-01-01

    Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroup Actinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession.

  18. Local-field correction in the lattice dynamics of b.b.c. transition metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onwuagba, B.N.

    1984-01-01

    It is shown that the off-diagonal components of the inverse dielectric matrix which determine the local-field correction associated with s-d interactions, make contributions to the dynamical matrix for phonon dispersion in the body-centred cubic transition metals V, Nb and Ta which tend to cancel the Born-Mayer contribution, just as the diagonal components of the inverse dielectric matrix tend to cancel or screen the long-range (Coulombic) contribution. Numerical calculations show that the cancellation of the Born-Mayer contribution to the dynamical matrix by the local-field correction is such that the effective short-range interatomic potential turns out to be attractive rather than repulsive in these metals and accounts for some peculiar shapes of the major soft modes observed in these metals

  19. Hospitalizations for cancer in international migrants versus local population in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Oyarte

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare cancer hospital morbidity among the local population and the immigrant population in Chile. METHODS This is a prevalence study based on the analysis of hospital discharges of all the health centers of Chile. Cancer hospital discharges were characterized in 2012 according to the migratory status. The crude and specific rates of hospital morbidity for this cause were estimated for the analysis of their association with migratory status using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. RESULTS The neoplasms were the third cause of hospital discharges for immigrants and the seventh one for Chileans. The adjusted rate of cancer hospital discharges was higher for Chileans than immigrants, and the latter had fewer days of hospitalization and greater proportion of surgical interventions. In the group of immigrants, cancer hospital discharges mainly corresponded to patients belonging to the private system (46%, and in the group of Chileans they mainly corresponded to patients in the public system (71.1%. We observed a large difference in the proportion of cancer hospital discharges for patients with no health insurance between the two populations (22.6%: immigrants, 1.0%: Chileans. In both populations, the three most frequent types of cancer were: (i lymphoid tissue, hematopoietic organs, and related tissues, (ii digestive organs, and (iii breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS Models of differentiated care should be considered for immigrants, with the creation of specific programs of information, coverage, and protection against cancer. More information on this problem must be generated at the local and international level.

  20. Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

    2013-05-01

    An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

  1. About a dynamic model of interaction of insect population with food plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Nedorezov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In present paper there is the consideration of mathematical model of food plant (resource - consumer (insect population - pathogen system dynamics which is constructed as a system of ordinary differential equations. The dynamic regimes of model are analyzed and, in particular, with the help of numerical methods it is shown that trigger regimes (regimes with two stable attractors can be realized in model under very simple assumptions about ecological and intra-population processes functioning. Within the framework of model it was assumed that the rate of food flow into the system is constant and functioning of intra-population selfregulative mechanisms can be described by Verhulst model. As it was found, trigger regimes are different with respect to their properties: in particular, in model the trigger regimes with one of stable stationary points on the coordinate plane can be realized (it corresponds to the situation when sick individuals in population are absent and their appearance in small volume leads to their asymptotic elimination; also the regimes with several nonzero stationary states and stable periodic fluctuations were found.

  2. CONNECTION BETWEEN DYNAMICALLY DERIVED INITIAL MASS FUNCTION NORMALIZATION AND STELLAR POPULATION PARAMETERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Bayet, Estelle; Bureau, Martin; Davies, Roger L.; Alatalo, Katherine; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Crocker, Alison F.; Davis, Timothy A.; De Zeeuw, P. T.; Emsellem, Eric; Kuntschner, Harald; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Morganti, Raffaella; Oosterloo, Tom; Naab, Thorsten

    2014-01-01

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS 3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization α dyn ≡ (M/L) stars /(M/L) Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of α dyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak α dyn -[α/Fe] and α dyn –Age correlations and no significant α dyn –[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis

  3. Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    2014-09-01

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡ (M/L)stars/(M/L)Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of αdyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak αdyn-[α/Fe] and αdyn -Age correlations and no significant αdyn -[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.

  4. Magnetic domain wall gratings for magnetization reversal tuning and confined dynamic mode localization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trützschler, Julia; Sentosun, Kadir; Mozooni, Babak; Mattheis, Roland; McCord, Jeffrey

    2016-08-04

    High density magnetic domain wall gratings are imprinted in ferromagnetic-antiferromagnetic thin films by local ion irradiation by which alternating head-to-tail-to-head-to-tail and head-to-head-to-tail-to-tail spatially overlapping domain wall networks are formed. Unique magnetic domain processes result from the interaction of anchored domain walls. Non-linear magnetization response is introduced by the laterally distributed magnetic anisotropy phases. The locally varying magnetic charge distribution gives rise to localized and guided magnetization spin-wave modes directly constrained by the narrow domain wall cores. The exchange coupled multiphase material structure leads to unprecedented static and locally modified dynamic magnetic material properties.

  5. Phenotypic equilibrium as probabilistic convergence in multi-phenotype cell population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-Quan Jiang

    Full Text Available We consider the cell population dynamics with n different phenotypes. Both the Markovian branching process model (stochastic model and the ordinary differential equation (ODE system model (deterministic model are presented, and exploited to investigate the dynamics of the phenotypic proportions. We will prove that in both models, these proportions will tend to constants regardless of initial population states ("phenotypic equilibrium" under weak conditions, which explains the experimental phenomenon in Gupta et al.'s paper. We also prove that Gupta et al.'s explanation is the ODE model under a special assumption. As an application, we will give sufficient and necessary conditions under which the proportion of one phenotype tends to 0 (die out or 1 (dominate. We also extend our results to non-Markovian cases.

  6. Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Fondell, Thomas F.; Morse, Julie A.

    2006-01-01

    Populations of greater scaup (Aythya marila) remained relatively stable during a period when populations of lesser scaup (A. affinis) have declined from historic levels. To assist in describing these differences in population trends, from 1991 through 2000, we studied the survival, nesting ecology, and productivity of greater scaup on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, to develop a model of population dynamics. We located nests, radio-marked females for renesting studies, estimated duckling survival, and leg-banded females to examine nest site fidelity and annual survival.

  7. Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

  8. Attitudes of Local Population of Tourism Impacts on Destination Sustainability – Case of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izidora Marković

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Space as a resource is intensively used both by the tourism and the local community. Therefore the state of the tourism development must be measured trough time, along with attitudes of local population, to determine the impacts and the pressure that can continues tourism development cause. In the 1990s, tourism becomes the motor of the development of Croatia, which has resulted in continues increase of the number of tourist beds. On the other hand population of the Croatia is experiencing the demographic extinction. To explain pressures of the tourism development on the decreasing community, tourism function index was used in comparison with the research of the attitudes of local population considering tourism impacts. The main objective of this paper is to determine the correlation between the increase in the number of tourists and changes in the life of local population, which arises from the tourism activities in destinations, as well as from the ratio of the number of residents and tourists. The attitudes analysis has shown high level of the negative impacts of tourism in seven Adriatic counties, while in continental parts of Croatia tourism is seen as an activity with mostly positive effects. Still tourism has generally positive impact on the destination and is seen as desirable activity, even in areas with relatively high tourism function index. Accordingly, to enhance the positive impacts it is essential to diminish extremely big differences in tourism development between too developed coastal areas and mainly neglected continental part of the country and to reduce seasonality of tourism, trough sustainable management and diversification of tourism offer in accordance with spatial disparities.

  9. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  10. Emergence of cooperation in phenotypically heterogeneous populations: a replicator dynamics analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreira da Silva Rocha, A; Escobedo, R; Laruelle, A

    2015-01-01

    The emergence of cooperation is analyzed in heterogeneous populations where two kinds of individuals exist according to their phenotypic appearance. Phenotype recognition is assumed for all individuals: individuals are able to identify the type of every other individual, but fail to recognize their own type. Individuals thus behave under partial information conditions. The interactions between individuals are described by the snowdrift game, where individuals can either cooperate or defect. The evolution of such populations is studied in the framework of evolutionary game theory by means of the replicator dynamics. Overlapping generations are considered, so the replicator equations are formulated in discrete-time form. The stability analysis of the dynamical system is carried out and a detailed description of the behavior of trajectories starting from the interior of the state-space is given. We find that the four monomorphic states are unstable and that a polymorphic state exists which is a global attractor for non-degenerate initial states of the population. The result for the discrete-time replicator coincides with the one of the continuous case. (paper)

  11. Dynamics of a population of oscillatory and excitable elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keeffe, Kevin P; Strogatz, Steven H

    2016-06-01

    We analyze a variant of a model proposed by Kuramoto, Shinomoto, and Sakaguchi for a large population of coupled oscillatory and excitable elements. Using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, we reduce the behavior of the population to a two-dimensional dynamical system with three parameters. We present the stability diagram and calculate several of its bifurcation curves analytically, for both excitatory and inhibitory coupling. Our main result is that when the coupling function is broad, the system can display bistability between steady states of constant high and low activity, whereas when the coupling function is narrow and inhibitory, one of the states in the bistable regime can show persistent pulsations in activity.

  12. Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.

    2017-01-01

    Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. For non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.

  13. Scaling up population dynamic processes in a ladybird–aphid

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Houdková, Kateřina; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 48, - (2006), s. 323-332 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06073; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA6087301; GA ČR(CZ) GD206/03/H034 Keywords : Aphids * Egg window * Ladybirds * Metapopulation * Model * Population dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.534, year: 2006

  14. Population dynamics of three songbird species in a nestbox population in Central Europe show effects of density, climate and competitive interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smallegange, I.M.; van der Meer, J.; Fiedler, W.

    2011-01-01

    Unravelling the contributions of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining species population dynamics is a challenge, especially if the two factors interact. One approach is to apply stochastic population models to long-term data, yet few studies have included interactions

  15. Multi-atlas labeling with population-specific template and non-local patch-based label fusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonov, Vladimir; Coupé, Pierrick; Eskildsen, Simon Fristed

    We propose a new method combining a population-specific nonlinear template atlas approach with non-local patch-based structure segmentation for whole brain segmentation into individual structures. This way, we benefit from the efficient intensity-driven segmentation of the non-local means framework...... and from the global shape constraints imposed by the nonlinear template matching....

  16. Studies on population dynamic of diamondback moth in the field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malakrong, A.; Limohpasmanee, W.; Keawchoung, P.; Kodcharint, P.

    1994-01-01

    The population dynamic of diamondback moth larva in the field was studied at Khao Khor High-land Agricultural Research Station during August-October 1993 and February-April 1994. The distribution patterns of diamondback moth larva was clumped when population was low and would change to be random when population was high. The maximun and minimum number of diamondback moth in the field were 71,203 and 2,732 larva/rai during March and September. Temperature, rainfall and age of cabbage were slightly relative with number of larva (r=-0.2891, p=0.30; r=-0.2816, p=0.31 and r=0.2931, p=0.29 respectively) but relative humidity has no effect on number of larva

  17. Are habitat fragmentation, local adaptation and isolation-by-distance driving population divergence in wild rice Oryza rufipogon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yao; Vrieling, Klaas; Liao, Hui; Xiao, Manqiu; Zhu, Yongqing; Rong, Jun; Zhang, Wenju; Wang, Yuguo; Yang, Ji; Chen, Jiakuan; Song, Zhiping

    2013-11-01

    Habitat fragmentation weakens the connection between populations and is accompanied with isolation by distance (IBD) and local adaptation (isolation by adaptation, IBA), both leading to genetic divergence between populations. To understand the evolutionary potential of a population and to formulate proper conservation strategies, information on the roles of IBD and IBA in driving population divergence is critical. The putative ancestor of Asian cultivated rice (Oryza sativa) is endangered in China due to habitat loss and fragmentation. We investigated the genetic variation in 11 Chinese Oryza rufipogon populations using 79 microsatellite loci to infer the effects of habitat fragmentation, IBD and IBA on genetic structure. Historical and current gene flows were found to be rare (mh  = 0.0002-0.0013, mc  = 0.007-0.029), indicating IBD and resulting in a high level of population divergence (FST  = 0.343). High within-population genetic variation (HE  = 0.377-0.515), relatively large effective population sizes (Ne  = 96-158), absence of bottlenecks and limited gene flow were found, demonstrating little impact of recent habitat fragmentation on these populations. Eleven gene-linked microsatellite loci were identified as outliers, indicating local adaptation. Hierarchical AMOVA and partial Mantel tests indicated that population divergence of Chinese O. rufipogon was significantly correlated with environmental factors, especially habitat temperature. Common garden trials detected a significant adaptive population divergence associated with latitude. Collectively, these findings imply that IBD due to historical rather than recent fragmentation, followed by local adaptation, has driven population divergence in O. rufipogon. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob

    Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...... the animals’ ability to forage efficiently and to sustain their energy intake, is influenced by noise emitted from wind turbines and ships. The energy levels in turn affect their survival. The fine-scale movements of the simulated animals was governed by a spatial memory, which allowed the model to produce...

  19. Turkey’s Population Dynamics As A Candidate Country For EU Membership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harun Uçak

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Literally, it has been accepted that one of the major obstacles to Turkey’s EU membership is in population term. There has not been any enlargement process as large as Turkey’s population as a single state in EU history before. The enlargement in 2004 which includes 10 states involved 74 million people as whole member states while Turkey’s population is 72 million inhabitants in 2007 data which is only lower than Germany’s population in all EU member states. Thus, Turkey's accession would be different from previous enlargements because of the combined impact of high population. This study compares the population dynamics, working conditions, minimum wage rates and main macroeconomic indicators between Turkey and EU member states. Turkey has young generations compared to EU countries. In the comparison of age groups proportion in total population, 0-19 age group %21,9 in EU 27 and %36,5 in Turkey, 20-39 age group is %28 in EU 27 and %34,3 in Turkey, 40-59 age group is %27,9 in EU and %20,9 in Turkey, 60 and above age group is %22,1 in EU and %9,5 in Turkey. Thus, population dynamics of Turkey could make a contribution to offsetting the ageing of EU 27 societies if the membership would occur in the future. However, minimum wage rates in Turkey are lower than many EU member states but generally higher than EU member states located in Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, immigration possibilities from Turkey can be expected to Western European Countries, but not the same direction to Central and Eastern Europe Countries. Furthermore, the process in macroeconomic indicators will be a determinant in immigration expectations while Turkey’s GDP has been grown faster than EU level recently.

  20. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

    2014-10-01

    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

  1. Décentralisation, droits de la population locale et citoyenneté des ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Décentralisation, droits de la population locale et citoyenneté des femmes : étude comparative menée au Kenya, en Ouganda et en Tanzanie - phase II. Le Kenya, l'Ouganda et la Tanzanie ont adopté de nouvelles lois, politiques et modalités institutionnelles pour faciliter la décentralisation de l'administration et de la ...

  2. Molecular dynamics simulation of the local concentration and structure in multicomponent aerosol nanoparticles under atmospheric conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadima, Katerina S; Mavrantzas, Vlasis G; Pandis, Spyros N

    2017-06-28

    Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed to investigate the local structure and local concentration in atmospheric nanoparticles consisting of an organic compound (cis-pinonic acid or n-C 30 H 62 ), sulfate and ammonium ions, and water. Simulations in the isothermal-isobaric (NPT) statistical ensemble under atmospheric conditions with a prespecified number of molecules of the abovementioned compounds led to the formation of a nanoparticle. Calculations of the density profiles of all the chemical species in the nanoparticle, the corresponding radial pair distribution functions, and their mobility inside the nanoparticle revealed strong interactions developing between sulfate and ammonium ions. However, sulfate and ammonium ions prefer to populate the central part of the nanoparticle under the simulated conditions, whereas organic molecules like to reside at its outer surface. Sulfate and ammonium ions were practically immobile; in contrast, the organic molecules exhibited appreciable mobility at the outer surface of the nanoparticle. When the organic compound was a normal alkane (e.g. n-C 30 H 62 ), a well-organized (crystalline-like) phase was rapidly formed at the free surface of the nanoparticle and remained separate from the rest of the species.

  3. Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

    2017-10-01

    A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

  4. Pollution source localization in an urban water supply network based on dynamic water demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xuesong; Zhu, Zhixin; Li, Tian

    2017-10-27

    Urban water supply networks are susceptible to intentional, accidental chemical, and biological pollution, which pose a threat to the health of consumers. In recent years, drinking-water pollution incidents have occurred frequently, seriously endangering social stability and security. The real-time monitoring for water quality can be effectively implemented by placing sensors in the water supply network. However, locating the source of pollution through the data detection obtained by water quality sensors is a challenging problem. The difficulty lies in the limited number of sensors, large number of water supply network nodes, and dynamic user demand for water, which leads the pollution source localization problem to an uncertainty, large-scale, and dynamic optimization problem. In this paper, we mainly study the dynamics of the pollution source localization problem. Previous studies of pollution source localization assume that hydraulic inputs (e.g., water demand of consumers) are known. However, because of the inherent variability of urban water demand, the problem is essentially a fluctuating dynamic problem of consumer's water demand. In this paper, the water demand is considered to be stochastic in nature and can be described using Gaussian model or autoregressive model. On this basis, an optimization algorithm is proposed based on these two dynamic water demand change models to locate the pollution source. The objective of the proposed algorithm is to find the locations and concentrations of pollution sources that meet the minimum between the analogue and detection values of the sensor. Simulation experiments were conducted using two different sizes of urban water supply network data, and the experimental results were compared with those of the standard genetic algorithm.

  5. Localized saddle-point search and application to temperature-accelerated dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shim, Yunsic; Amar, Jacques G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606 (United States); Callahan, Nathan B. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606 (United States); Department of Physics, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana 47405 (United States)

    2013-03-07

    We present a method for speeding up temperature-accelerated dynamics (TAD) simulations by carrying out a localized saddle-point (LSAD) search. In this method, instead of using the entire system to determine the energy barriers of activated processes, the calculation is localized by only including a small chunk of atoms around the atoms directly involved in the transition. Using this method, we have obtained N-independent scaling for the computational cost of the saddle-point search as a function of system size N. The error arising from localization is analyzed using a variety of model systems, including a variety of activated processes on Ag(100) and Cu(100) surfaces, as well as multiatom moves in Cu radiation damage and metal heteroepitaxial growth. Our results show significantly improved performance of TAD with the LSAD method, for the case of Ag/Ag(100) annealing and Cu/Cu(100) growth, while maintaining a negligibly small error in energy barriers.

  6. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...

  7. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  8. Modeling of Nonlinear Dynamics and Synchronized Oscillations of Microbial Populations, Carbon and Oxygen Concentrations, Induced by Root Exudation in the Rhizosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molz, F. J.; Faybishenko, B.; Jenkins, E. W.

    2012-12-01

    Mass and energy fluxes within the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum are highly coupled and inherently nonlinear. The main focus of this presentation is to demonstrate the results of numerical modeling of a system of 4 coupled, nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which are used to describe the long-term, rhizosphere processes of soil microbial dynamics, including the competition between nitrogen-fixing bacteria and those unable to fix nitrogen, along with substrate concentration (nutrient supply) and oxygen concentration. Modeling results demonstrate the synchronized patterns of temporal oscillations of competing microbial populations, which are affected by carbon and oxygen concentrations. The temporal dynamics and amplitude of the root exudation process serve as a driving force for microbial and geochemical phenomena, and lead to the development of the Gompetzian dynamics, synchronized oscillations, and phase-space attractors of microbial populations and carbon and oxygen concentrations. The nonlinear dynamic analysis of time series concentrations from the solution of the ODEs was used to identify several types of phase-space attractors, which appear to be dependent on the parameters of the exudation function and Monod kinetic parameters. This phase space analysis was conducted by means of assessing the global and local embedding dimensions, correlation time, capacity and correlation dimensions, and Lyapunov exponents of the calculated model variables defining the phase space. Such results can be used for planning experimental and theoretical studies of biogeochemical processes in the fields of plant nutrition, phyto- and bio-remediation, and other ecological areas.

  9. Population dynamics of Trichuris suis in trickle-infected pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, P; Thamsborg, S M; Petersen, H H; Kringel, H; Fredholm, M; Roepstorff, A

    2009-05-01

    The population dynamics of Trichuris suis in pigs was studied during long-term experimental infections. Twenty-three 10-week-old pigs were inoculated with 5 T. suis eggs/kg/day. Seven, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 post-start of infection (p.i.), respectively. The median numbers of worms in the colon were 538 (min-max: 277-618), 332 (14-1140) and 0 (0-4) at 4, 8, and 14 weeks p.i. respectively, suggesting an increased aggregation of the worms with time and acquisition of nearly sterile immunity. The serum levels of T. suis specific antibodies (IgG1, IgG2 and IgA) peaked at week 8 p.i. By week 14 p.i. the IgG2 and IgA antibody levels remained significantly elevated above the level of week 0. The population dynamics of T. suis trickle infections in pigs is discussed with focus on interpretation of diagnostic and epidemiological data of pigs, the use of pigs as a model for human Trichuris trichiura infections and the novel approach of using T. suis eggs in the treatment of patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

  10. The 25 parsec local white dwarf population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holberg, J. B.; Oswalt, T. D.; Sion, E. M.; McCook, G. P.

    2016-11-01

    We have extended our detailed survey of the local white dwarf population from 20 to 25 pc, effectively doubling the sample volume, which now includes 232 stars. In the process, new stars within 20 pc have been added, a more uniform set of distance estimates as well as improved spectral and binary classifications are available. The present 25 pc sample is estimated to be about 68 per cent complete (the corresponding 20 pc sample is now 86 per cent complete). The space density of white dwarfs is unchanged at 4.8 ± 0.5 × 10-3 pc-3. This new study includes a white dwarf mass distribution and luminosity function based on the 232 stars in the 25 pc sample. We find a significant excess of single stars over systems containing one or more companions (74 per cent versus 26 per cent). This suggests mechanisms that result in the loss of companions during binary system evolution. In addition, this updated sample exhibits a pronounced deficiency of nearby `Sirius-like' systems. 11 such systems were found within the 20 pc volume versus only one additional system found in the volume between 20 and 25 pc. An estimate of white dwarf birth rates during the last ˜8 Gyr is derived from individual remnant cooling ages. A discussion of likely ways new members of the local sample may be found is provided.

  11. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe-Strogatz integrability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-08-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations.

  12. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe–Strogatz integrability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-01-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations. (letter)

  13. Sensitivity of Anopheles gambiae population dynamics to meteo-hydrological variability: a mechanistic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilioli Gianni

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mechanistic models play an important role in many biological disciplines, and they can effectively contribute to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of mosquito populations, in the light of the increasing knowledge of the crucial driving role on vector dynamics played by meteo-climatic features as well as other physical-biological characteristics of the landscape. Methods In malaria eco-epidemiology landscape components (atmosphere, water bodies, land use interact with the epidemiological system (interacting populations of vector, human, and parasite. In the background of the eco-epidemiological approach, a mosquito population model is here proposed to evaluate the sensitivity of An. gambiae s.s. population to some peculiar thermal-pluviometric scenarios. The scenarios are obtained perturbing meteorological time series data referred to four Kenyan sites (Nairobi, Nyabondo, Kibwesi, and Malindi representing four different eco-epidemiological settings. Results Simulations highlight a strong dependence of mosquito population abundance on temperature variation with well-defined site-specific patterns. The upper extreme of thermal perturbation interval (+ 3°C gives rise to an increase in adult population abundance at Nairobi (+111% and Nyabondo (+61%, and a decrease at Kibwezi (-2% and Malindi (-36%. At the lower extreme perturbation (-3°C is observed a reduction in both immature and adult mosquito population in three sites (Nairobi -74%, Nyabondo -66%, Kibwezi -39%, and an increase in Malindi (+11%. A coherent non-linear pattern of population variation emerges. The maximum rate of variation is +30% population abundance for +1°C of temperature change, but also almost null and negative values are obtained. Mosquitoes are less sensitive to rainfall and both adults and immature populations display a positive quasi-linear response pattern to rainfall variation. Conclusions The non-linear temperature-dependent response is in

  14. Population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii in cloud forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana

    2016-02-01

    Epiphytes are a major component of tropical montane cloud forests. Over-exploitation and forest loss and degradation affect remnant populations. In this study, we analysed the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii over a 2-y period in a tropical montane cloud forest fragment in southern Mexico. Matrix analysis revealed that the T. butzii population is likely to be stable at the study site. On average the λ value did not differ significantly from unity: λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.978 (0.936-1.001). λ was highly influenced by stasis, to a lesser extent by growth and only slightly by fecundity. Overall, adult plant stasis and phalanx growth habit played a fundamental role in population maintenance. T. butzii tolerance to xeric conditions may contribute to population stability in the studied region.

  15. Face Liveness Detection Using Dynamic Local Ternary Pattern (DLTP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajida Parveen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Face spoofing is considered to be one of the prominent threats to face recognition systems. However, in order to improve the security measures of such biometric systems against deliberate spoof attacks, liveness detection has received significant recent attention from researchers. For this purpose, analysis of facial skin texture properties becomes more popular because of its limited resource requirement and lower processing cost. The traditional method of skin analysis for liveness detection was to use Local Binary Pattern (LBP and its variants. LBP descriptors are effective, but they may exhibit certain limitations in near uniform patterns. Thus, in this paper, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Local Ternary Pattern (LTP as an alternative to LBP. In addition, we adopted Dynamic Local Ternary Pattern (DLTP, which eliminates the manual threshold setting in LTP by using Weber’s law. The proposed method was tested rigorously on four facial spoof databases: three are public domain databases and the other is the Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM face spoof database, which was compiled through this study. The results obtained from the proposed DLTP texture descriptor attained optimum accuracy and clearly outperformed the reported LBP and LTP texture descriptors.

  16. Nonlinearities Lead to Qualitative Differences in Population Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ameixa, Olga; Messelink, G. J.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 4 (2013), e62530-e62530 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GEVOL/11/E036 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : nonlinear system * population density * population dynamics * predator * predator prey interaction * qualitative analysis Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013

  17. Do farming practices influence population dynamics of rodents?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Massawe, A W; Rwamugira, W; Leirs, Herwig

    2007-01-01

    A capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in crop fields in Morogoro, Tanzania, to investigate how the population dynamics of multimammate field rats, Mastomys natalensis, was influenced by the commonly practised land preparation methods and cropping systems. Two land preparation methods (trac...... practices. In maize fields in Tanzania, the crop is most susceptible to damage by M. natalensis in the first 2 weeks after planting, and therefore, lower densities of rodents will result into lower crop damage in tractor ploughed fields....

  18. On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Ferrandis

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a

  19. Functioning islet cell tumor of the pancreas. Localization with dynamic spiral CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, M.J.; Choi, B.I.; Han, J.K.; Chung, J.W.; Han, M.C.; Bae, S.H.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of dynamic spiral CT, including multidimensional reformation, in the detection and localization of islet cell tumors of the pancreas. Material and Methods: Seven patients with histopathologically proven functioning islet cell tumors of the pancreas were studied with 2-phase contrast-enhanced spiral CT. Scanning of the arterial phase and late phase was started 30 s and 180 s, respectively, after injection of 100 ml of contrast medium at a rate of 3 ml/s. Results: Axial images in the arterial phase depicted the lesions in 5 patients, but in the late phase in only one patient. Multiplanar reformatted images of the arterial phase depicted the lesions in all 7 patients. Maximal intensity projection images demonstrated all lesions with information of their relationship to the vascular structure. Conclusion: Dynamic spiral CT with scanning during the arterial phase and retrospective multidimensional reformation is useful for preoperative detection and localization of small islet cell tumors of the pancreas. (orig.)

  20. Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Annabel L

    2018-01-01

    Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

  1. Deciphering DNA replication dynamics in eukaryotic cell populations in relation with their averaged chromatin conformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldar, A.; Arneodo, A.; Audit, B.; Argoul, F.; Rappailles, A.; Guilbaud, G.; Petryk, N.; Kahli, M.; Hyrien, O.

    2016-03-01

    We propose a non-local model of DNA replication that takes into account the observed uncertainty on the position and time of replication initiation in eukaryote cell populations. By picturing replication initiation as a two-state system and considering all possible transition configurations, and by taking into account the chromatin’s fractal dimension, we derive an analytical expression for the rate of replication initiation. This model predicts with no free parameter the temporal profiles of initiation rate, replication fork density and fraction of replicated DNA, in quantitative agreement with corresponding experimental data from both S. cerevisiae and human cells and provides a quantitative estimate of initiation site redundancy. This study shows that, to a large extent, the program that regulates the dynamics of eukaryotic DNA replication is a collective phenomenon that emerges from the stochastic nature of replication origins initiation.

  2. Patterns of population change in Ghana (1984-2000)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller-Jensen, Lasse; Knudsen, Michael Helt

    2008-01-01

      The study addresses population dynamics in Ghana on the urban and regional levels between 1984 and 2000. At the urban level, the development trends are analyzed for urban localities (population above 5,000) on the basis of geo-coded census data. Potential driving forces for rapid population gro...... with a more in-depth discussion of the development characteristics of Ghana's Western Region. This region has experienced one of the highest regional population growth rates, mainly due to its status as a ‘frontier' for cocoa production....

  3. Dynamic of age structure and the number of population in Ozersk and affecting factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panchenko, O.; Rtischeva, M.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this work was an evaluation of the dynamics of age structure and population for the city of Ozyorsk, based in connection with creation of the nuclear plant Mayak, the 'first-born' of the Russian atomic industry. The obtained results indicate that since 1950 demographic processes in Ozyorsk were more favorable, in spite of fact that it was in this period workers of Mayak nuclear plant and population as a whole, got comparatively greater radiation doses than in the following years. However, dynamics the number of population has an unfavorable trend to reduce, connected with sharp worsening of social-economic situation in the town as a whole, as a result of the economic reforms in the country. Reduction of the number of population in the town is expressed by the negative natural growth and by reducing migration processes, which resulted in sharp decrease of the general growth of population, and in its stopping in 1998. (authors)

  4. Spiking, Bursting, and Population Dynamics in a Network of Growth Transform Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangopadhyay, Ahana; Chakrabartty, Shantanu

    2017-04-27

    This paper investigates the dynamical properties of a network of neurons, each of which implements an asynchronous mapping based on polynomial growth transforms. In the first part of this paper, we present a geometric approach for visualizing the dynamics of the network where each of the neurons traverses a trajectory in a dual optimization space, whereas the network itself traverses a trajectory in an equivalent primal optimization space. We show that as the network learns to solve basic classification tasks, different choices of primal-dual mapping produce unique but interpretable neural dynamics like noise shaping, spiking, and bursting. While the proposed framework is general enough, in this paper, we demonstrate its use for designing support vector machines (SVMs) that exhibit noise-shaping properties similar to those of ΣΔ modulators, and for designing SVMs that learn to encode information using spikes and bursts. It is demonstrated that the emergent switching, spiking, and burst dynamics produced by each neuron encodes its respective margin of separation from a classification hyperplane whose parameters are encoded by the network population dynamics. We believe that the proposed growth transform neuron model and the underlying geometric framework could serve as an important tool to connect well-established machine learning algorithms like SVMs to neuromorphic principles like spiking, bursting, population encoding, and noise shaping.

  5. Linking in situ bioassays and population dynamics of macroinvertebrates to assess agricultural contamination in streams of the Argentine pampa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jergentz, S; Pessacq, P; Mugni, H; Bonetto, C; Schulz, R

    2004-10-01

    The two local crustacean species Hyalella curvispina and Macrobrachium borelli were chosen for assessment of agricultural contamination in two streams (Horqueta and Maguire) in the Argentine pampa. In parallel with in situ bioassays of both species, the population dynamics and the organismic drift of H. curvispina were investigated throughout the main period of insecticide application, from December 2001 to March 2002. In Maguire none of the current-use insecticides (chlorpyrifos, alpha-cypermethrin, and endosulfan) in question were detected throughout the sampling period. During 1-week intervals with no contamination by insecticides the survival rate of H. curvispina varied between 77 +/- 6% (+/- SE, n = 4) and 85 +/- 3%. In Horqueta during a week with a peak insecticide contamination of 64 microg/kg chlorpyrifos in the suspended particles, a mortality of 100% was observed in the in situ bioassays for both species, H. curvispina and M. borelli. At the same time, in Maguire H. curvispina showed reduced survival rates of 23 +/- 5% and 25 +/- 18% at the two sites, while the survival rate of M. borelli was 60 +/- 11% upstream and 93 +/- 5% downstream, below a wetland. During the period with 100% mortality of H. curvispina in Horqueta, the population density of this species decreased correspondingly, from 106 +/- 26 to 0 individuals/m(2). We conclude that in situ bioassays can be successfully linked to in-stream population dynamics for the same species and that this link is very useful for interpreting causal exposure-effect relationships.

  6. Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hock, Karlo; Wolff, Nicholas H; Beeden, Roger; Hoey, Jessica; Condie, Scott A; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Possingham, Hugh P; Mumby, Peter J

    2016-08-01

    Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area. The challenge, therefore, is to choose intervention locations that will maximize the effectiveness of the control efforts. We propose a novel method to manage dynamic species invasions and outbreaks that identifies the intervention locations most likely to curtail population expansion by selectively targeting local populations most likely to expand their future range. Critically, at any point during the development of the invasion or outbreak, the method identifies the local intervention that maximizes the long-term benefit across the ecosystem by restricting species' potential to spread. In so doing, the method adaptively selects the intervention targets under dynamically changing circumstances. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method we applied it to controlling the spread of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) outbreaks across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Application of our method resulted in an 18-fold relative improvement in management outcomes compared with a random targeting of reefs in putative starfish control scenarios. Although we focused on applying the method to reducing the spread of an unwanted species, it can also be used to facilitate the spread of desirable species through connectivity networks. For example, the method could be used to select those fragments of habitat most likely to rebuild a population if they were sufficiently well protected. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. Application of homotopy-perturbation method to nonlinear population dynamics models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chowdhury, M.S.H.; Hashim, I.; Abdulaziz, O.

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, the homotopy-perturbation method (HPM) is employed to derive approximate series solutions of nonlinear population dynamics models. The nonlinear models considered are the multispecies Lotka-Volterra equations. The accuracy of this method is examined by comparison with the available exact and the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4)

  8. Exploring the Local Elastic Properties of Bilayer Membranes Using Molecular Dynamics Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pieffet, Gilles; Botero, Alonso; Peters, Günther H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Membrane mechanical elastic properties regulate a variety of cellular processes involving local membrane deformation, such as ion channel function and vesicle fusion. In this work, we used molecular dynamics simulations to estimate the local elastic properties of a membrane. For this, we calculated...... the stretching process in molecular detail, allowing us to fit this profile to a previously proposed continuum elastic model. Through this approach, we calculated an effective membrane spring constant of 42 kJ-2.mol-1, which is in good agreement with the PMF calculation. Furthermore, the solvation energy we...

  9. CONNECTION BETWEEN DYNAMICALLY DERIVED INITIAL MASS FUNCTION NORMALIZATION AND STELLAR POPULATION PARAMETERS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDermid, Richard M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Macquarie University, Sydney NSW 2109 (Australia); Cappellari, Michele; Bayet, Estelle; Bureau, Martin; Davies, Roger L. [Sub-Department of Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Denys Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford, OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Alatalo, Katherine [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Blitz, Leo [Department of Astronomy, Campbell Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Bois, Maxime [Observatoire de Paris, LERMA and CNRS, 61 Av. de l' Observatoire, F-75014 Paris (France); Bournaud, Frédéric; Duc, Pierre-Alain [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/IRFU/SAp- CNRS-Université Paris Diderot, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Crocker, Alison F. [Ritter Astrophysical Observatory, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Davis, Timothy A.; De Zeeuw, P. T.; Emsellem, Eric; Kuntschner, Harald [European Southern Observatory, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Khochfar, Sadegh [Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Edinburgh, EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Krajnović, Davor [Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam (AIP), An der Sternwarte 16, D-14482 Potsdam (Germany); Morganti, Raffaella; Oosterloo, Tom [Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy (ASTRON), Postbus 2, 7990 AA Dwingeloo (Netherlands); Naab, Thorsten, E-mail: richard.mcdermid@mq.edu.au [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, D-85741 Garching (Germany); and others

    2014-09-10

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS{sup 3D} project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization α{sub dyn} ≡ (M/L){sub stars}/(M/L){sub Salp} and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of α{sub dyn} at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak α{sub dyn}-[α/Fe] and α{sub dyn} –Age correlations and no significant α{sub dyn} –[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.

  10. Discrete two-sex models of population dynamics: On modelling the mating function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessa-Gomes, Carmen; Legendre, Stéphane; Clobert, Jean

    2010-09-01

    Although sexual reproduction has long been a central subject of theoretical ecology, until recently its consequences for population dynamics were largely overlooked. This is now changing, and many studies have addressed this issue, showing that when the mating system is taken into account, the population dynamics depends on the relative abundance of males and females, and is non-linear. Moreover, sexual reproduction increases the extinction risk, namely due to the Allee effect. Nevertheless, different studies have identified diverse potential consequences, depending on the choice of mating function. In this study, we investigate the consequences of three alternative mating functions that are frequently used in discrete population models: the minimum; the harmonic mean; and the modified harmonic mean. We consider their consequences at three levels: on the probability that females will breed; on the presence and intensity of the Allee effect; and on the extinction risk. When we consider the harmonic mean, the number of times the individuals of the least abundant sex mate exceeds their mating potential, which implies that with variable sex-ratios the potential reproductive rate is no longer under the modeller's control. Consequently, the female breeding probability exceeds 1 whenever the sex-ratio is male-biased, which constitutes an obvious problem. The use of the harmonic mean is thus only justified if we think that this parameter should be re-defined in order to represent the females' breeding rate and the fact that females may reproduce more than once per breeding season. This phenomenon buffers the Allee effect, and reduces the extinction risk. However, when we consider birth-pulse populations, such a phenomenon is implausible because the number of times females can reproduce per birth season is limited. In general, the minimum or modified harmonic mean mating functions seem to be more suitable for assessing the impact of mating systems on population dynamics.

  11. Savoir-faire des populations locales des taxons du Jardin Botanique ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SARAH

    2 sept. 2013 ... RÉSUMÉ. Objectif : En vu de connaître l'usage des espèces végétales du Jardin Botanique de Bingerville par les populations locales, diverses activités de recherche ont été réalisées. Méthodologies et résultats : Le recensement de la flore a été effectué et a permis d'enregistrer 419 taxons. A l'issue d'une ...

  12. The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

  13. The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

  14. Impact of local order and stoichiometry on the ultrafast magnetization dynamics of Heusler compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steil, Daniel; Schmitt, Oliver; Fetzer, Roman; Aeschlimann, Martin; Cinchetti, Mirko; Kubota, Takahide; Naganuma, Hiroshi; Oogane, Mikihiko; Ando, Yasuo; Rodan, Steven; Blum, Christian G F; Wurmehl, Sabine; Balke, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays, a wealth of information on ultrafast magnetization dynamics of thin ferromagnetic films exists in the literature. Information is, however, scarce on bulk single crystals, which may be especially important for the case of multi-sublattice systems. In Heusler compounds, representing prominent examples for such multi-sublattice systems, off-stoichiometry and degree of order can significantly change the magnetic properties of thin films, while bulk single crystals may be generally produced with a much more well-defined stoichiometry and a higher degree of ordering. A careful characterization of the local structure of thin films versus bulk single crystals combined with ultrafast demagnetization studies can, thus, help to understand the impact of stoichiometry and order on ultrafast spin dynamics.Here, we present a comparative study of the structural ordering and magnetization dynamics for thin films and bulk single crystals of the family of Heusler alloys with composition Co 2 Fe 1 − x Mn x Si. The local ordering is studied by 59 Co nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, while the time-resolved magneto-optical Kerr effect gives access to the ultrafast magnetization dynamics. In the NMR studies we find significant differences between bulk single crystals and thin films, both regarding local ordering and stoichiometry. The ultrafast magnetization dynamics, on the other hand, turns out to be mostly unaffected by the observed structural differences, especially on the time scale of some hundreds of femtoseconds. These results confirm hole-mediated spin-flip processes as the main mechanism for ultrafast demagnetization and the robustness of this demagnetization channel against defect states in the minority band gap as well as against the energetic position of the band gap with respect to the Fermi energy. The very small differences observed in the magnetization dynamics on the picosecond time-scale, on the other hand, can be explained by considering the

  15. Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McDonald, Jenni L; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    clear patterns related to growth form. We find a surprising tendency for plant populations to boom rather than bust in response to temporal changes in vital rates and that stochastic growth rates increase with increasing tendency to boom. Synthesis. Transient dynamics contribute significantly...

  16. Fortune favours the brave: Movement responses shape demographic dynamics in strongly competing populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, Jonathan R; Petrovskii, Sergei V

    2017-05-07

    Animal movement is a key mechanism for shaping population dynamics. The effect of interactions between competing animals on a population's survival has been studied for many decades. However, interactions also affect an animal's subsequent movement decisions. Despite this, the indirect effect of these decisions on animal survival is much less well-understood. Here, we incorporate movement responses to foreign animals into a model of two competing populations, where inter-specific competition is greater than intra-specific competition. When movement is diffusive, the travelling wave moves from the stronger population to the weaker. However, by incorporating behaviourally induced directed movement towards the stronger population, the weaker one can slow the travelling wave down, even reversing its direction. Hence movement responses can switch the predictions of traditional mechanistic models. Furthermore, when environmental heterogeneity is combined with aggressive movement strategies, it is possible for spatially segregated co-existence to emerge. In this situation, the spatial patterns of the competing populations have the unusual feature that they are slightly out-of-phase with the environmental patterns. Finally, incorporating dynamic movement responses can also enable stable co-existence in a homogeneous environment, giving a new mechanism for spatially segregated co-existence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. General two-species interacting Lotka-Volterra system: Population dynamics and wave propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Haoqi; Wang, Mao-Xiang; Lai, Pik-Yin

    2018-05-01

    The population dynamics of two interacting species modeled by the Lotka-Volterra (LV) model with general parameters that can promote or suppress the other species is studied. It is found that the properties of the two species' isoclines determine the interaction of species, leading to six regimes in the phase diagram of interspecies interaction; i.e., there are six different interspecific relationships described by the LV model. Four regimes allow for nontrivial species coexistence, among which it is found that three of them are stable, namely, weak competition, mutualism, and predator-prey scenarios can lead to win-win coexistence situations. The Lyapunov function for general nontrivial two-species coexistence is also constructed. Furthermore, in the presence of spatial diffusion of the species, the dynamics can lead to steady wavefront propagation and can alter the population map. Propagating wavefront solutions in one dimension are investigated analytically and by numerical solutions. The steady wavefront speeds are obtained analytically via nonlinear dynamics analysis and verified by numerical solutions. In addition to the inter- and intraspecific interaction parameters, the intrinsic speed parameters of each species play a decisive role in species populations and wave properties. In some regimes, both species can copropagate with the same wave speeds in a finite range of parameters. Our results are further discussed in the light of possible biological relevance and ecological implications.

  18. Population and phase dynamics of F=1 spinor condensates in an external magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romano, D.R.; Passos, E.J.V. de

    2004-01-01

    We show that the classical dynamics underlying the mean-field description of homogeneous mixtures of spinor F=1 Bose-Einstein condensates in an external magnetic field is integrable as a consequence of number conservation and axial symmetry in spin space. The population dynamics depends only on the quadratic term of the Zeeman energy and on the strength of the spin-dependent term of the atom-atom interaction. We determine the equilibrium populations as function of the ratio of these two quantities and the miscibility of the hyperfine components in the ground state spinors are thoroughly discussed. Outside the equilibrium, the populations are always a periodic function of time where the periodic motion can be a libration or a rotation. Our studies also indicate the absence of metastability

  19. Local Dynamic Stability Assessment of Motion Impaired Elderly Using Electronic Textile Pants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jian; Lockhart, Thurmon E; Jones, Mark; Martin, Tom

    2008-10-01

    A clear association has been demonstrated between gait stability and falls in the elderly. Integration of wearable computing and human dynamic stability measures into home automation systems may help differentiate fall-prone individuals in a residential environment. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the capability of a pair of electronic textile (e-textile) pants system to assess local dynamic stability and to differentiate motion-impaired elderly from their healthy counterparts. A pair of e-textile pants comprised of numerous e-TAGs at locations corresponding to lower extremity joints was developed to collect acceleration, angular velocity and piezoelectric data. Four motion-impaired elderly together with nine healthy individuals (both young and old) participated in treadmill walking with a motion capture system simultaneously collecting kinematic data. Local dynamic stability, characterized by maximum Lyapunov exponent, was computed based on vertical acceleration and angular velocity at lower extremity joints for the measurements from both e-textile and motion capture systems. Results indicated that the motion-impaired elderly had significantly higher maximum Lyapunov exponents (computed from vertical acceleration data) than healthy individuals at the right ankle and hip joints. In addition, maximum Lyapunov exponents assessed by the motion capture system were found to be significantly higher than those assessed by the e-textile system. Despite the difference between these measurement techniques, attaching accelerometers at the ankle and hip joints was shown to be an effective sensor configuration. It was concluded that the e-textile pants system, via dynamic stability assessment, has the potential to identify motion-impaired elderly.

  20. Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

    1998-11-01

    We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

  1. Molecular characterization of six sub population Indonesian local goats based on mitochondrial DNA D-loop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aron Batubara

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Indonesian local goats were spread in some region, but there was still limited data’s known about the characteristics of its genetic diversity and origin. The Mitochondrial DNA D-loop sequences were used to study the genetic diversity and relationships of six sub population Indonesian local goats, namely, Kacang, Marica, Samosir, Jawarandu, Muara and Bengali goats. From 539 blood samples and DNA extraction collections were selected about 60 samples (10 samples each sub populations analyzed by PCR-RFLP methods, followed sequence analyzed about 5 PCR products each sub population. The results of the sequence analyses were edited and acquired about 957 bp of nucleotides length. After the alignment analyses were found 50 polymorphic sites which divided into 19 haplotype groups of mtDNA D-loop region. The value of nucleotide diversity was 0.014 ± 0.002. Analysis of Neighbour Joining with Kimura 2 Parameter methods and bootstrap test with 1000 replication indicated that each sub population groups was significantly different between one groups to the others. The maternal lineages origin of six breeds of Indonesian local goats was included to the group of lineage B. The Lineage B was the maternal origin of the haplogroup of goats in the region of East Asia, South Asia, China, Mongolia, North and South Africa, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan and India.

  2. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH IN LOCAL BUDGETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristinel ICHIM

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper entitled "Public expenditure on health in local budgets" aims analysing and deepening major spending categories that public authorities finance at local level, namely health expenditure. In the first part of the article we have specified the content and role of this category of expenditure in local budgets and also made some feedback on decentralization in health. In the second part of the work, based on data available in Statistical Yearbook of Romania, we have carried out an analysis of the dynamics of health spending from local budgets to emphasize their place and role in the health care expenses. The research carried out follows that the evolution and structure of health expenditure financed from local budgets is determined, along with the legislative framework in the field, by several variables that differ from one territorial administrative unit to another: the existence of sanitary units, their type, the involving of local public authorities in their development and modernization, the number and the social structure of the population. The research shows that over the period 1993-2015, the dynamics of the share of health spending in total expenditures of local budgets is sinusoidal, with a minimum threshold in 2000 of only 0.3%.

  3. Dynamics of weed populations : spatial pattern formation and implications for control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wallinga, J.

    1998-01-01

    Modelling studies were carried out to analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of annual weed populations and to identify the key factors that determine the long-term herbicide use of weed control programmes. Three different weed control programmes were studied.

    In the first weed

  4. Spatial variation in population dynamics of Sitka mice in floodplain forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    T.A. Hanley; J.C. Barnard

    1999-01-01

    Population dynamics and demography of the Sitka mouse, Peromyscus keeni sitkensis, were studied by mark-recapture live-trapping over a 4-year period in four floodplain and upland forest habitats: old-growth Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) floodplain; red alder (Alnus rubra) floodplain; beaver-pond...

  5. Self-organized dynamics in local load-sharing fiber bundle models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Soumyajyoti; Chakrabarti, Bikas K

    2013-10-01

    We study the dynamics of a local load-sharing fiber bundle model in two dimensions under an external load (which increases with time at a fixed slow rate) applied at a single point. Due to the local load-sharing nature, the redistributed load remains localized along the boundary of the broken patch. The system then goes to a self-organized state with a stationary average value of load per fiber along the (increasing) boundary of the broken patch (damaged region) and a scale-free distribution of avalanche sizes and other related quantities are observed. In particular, when the load redistribution is only among nearest surviving fiber(s), the numerical estimates of the exponent values are comparable with those of the Manna model. When the load redistribution is uniform along the patch boundary, the model shows a simple mean-field limit of this self-organizing critical behavior, for which we give analytical estimates of the saturation load per fiber values and avalanche size distribution exponent. These are in good agreement with numerical simulation results.

  6. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

    2010-05-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  7. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  8. Consumption of locally grown foods by the populations residing near nuclear power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathieu, P.Y.

    1980-01-01

    The studies carried out by the Geographical Institute of Aix-en-Provence and the B.E.G.E.A. are in three forms: the first studies the local rural production (farming, animal rearing and fishing); the second is concerned with the food intake of the population within a radius of 5 to 10 km around the site; the third consists in working out a soil utilization map covering an area of about 2500 hectares around the site in order to determine the agricultural and urban areas as well as the open spaces, and the exact sort of cultivation carried out, plot by plot. The map also represents all the phenomena concerning hydrography, irrigation, watering and the supply of potable water. All these studies concern only a few parishes and enable an accurate knowledge of the environment to be acquired. The food studies seek an order of magnitude of the amount of local produce consumed by the populations of the nuclear power station sites with a view to determining radioactive contamination levels. The results show the specific food consumption features of a population bearing the deep stamp of its environment and its rural origin [fr

  9. Dynamics and life histories of northern ungulates in changing environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrichsen, D. K.

    2011-12-01

    Regional climate and local weather conditions can profoundly influence life history parameters (growth, survival, fecundity) and population dynamics in northern ungulates (Post and Stenseth 1999, Coulson et al. 2001). The influence is both direct, for example through reduced growth or survival (Aanes et al. 2000, Tyler et al. 2008), and indirect, for example through changes in resource distribution, phenology and quality, changes which subsequently influence consumer dynamics (Post et al. 2008). By comparing and contrasting data from three spatially independent populations of ungulates, I discuss how variation in local weather parameters and vegetation growth influence spatial and temporal dynamics through changes in life history parameters and/or behavioural dynamics. The data originate from long term (11-15 years) monitoring data from three populations of ungulates in one subarctic and two high Arctic sites; semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in northern Norway, Svalbard reindeer (R. t. platyrhynchus) on Spitsbergen and muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) in Northeast Greenland. The results show that juvenile animals can be particularly vulnerable to changes in their environment, and that this is mirrored to different degrees in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the three populations. Adverse weather conditions, acting either directly or mediated through access to and quality of vegetation, experienced by young early in life, or even by their dams during pregnancy, can lead to reduced growth, lower survival and reduced reproductive performance later in life. The influence of current climatic variation, and the predictions of how local weather conditions may change over time, differs between the three sites, resulting in potentially different responses in the three populations. Aanes R, Saether BE and Øritsland NA. 2000. Fluctuations of an introduced population of Svalbard reindeer: the effects of density dependence and climatic variation. Ecography

  10. Population dynamics of graphene driven by a few-cycle laser pulse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Chunling; Yu, Rong; Hao, Xiangying; Zhang, Duo; Zu, Fengxia

    2017-06-01

    We study the time evolution of the populations in a two-dimensional (2D) graphene system by employing a few-cycle laser pulse with a linear polarization. Specifically, we present a comparative numerical analysis of the population dynamics of graphene in three different model configurations. Our results show that the Rabi-like oscillations and intraband population inversion can be observed in the population spectrum, which originated from the periodicity of a few-cycle laser pulse and the intraband Coulomb scattering. Also, coherent population oscillations are produced across the Dirac point when the Rabi frequency of the laser field which is used to couple the interband transition is much larger than that couples the intraband transition, and vice versa. These investigations may be helpful to enhance the performance of graphene-based ultrafast electronic and optoelectronic devices, including light-emitting devices, touch screens, photodetectors, and ultrafast lasers.

  11. The Dynamics of Population, Built-up Areas and their Evolving Associations in Gridded Population across Time and Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, F. R.; Gaughan, A. E.; Tatem, A. J.; Linard, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Nieves, J. J.; Reed, P.

    2017-12-01

    Gridded population data is commonly used to understand the `now' of hazard risk and mitigation management, health and disease modelling, and global change-, economic-, environmental-, and sustainability-related research. But to understand how human population change at local to global scales influences and is influenced by environmental changes requires novel ways of treating data and statistically describing associations of measured population counts with associated covariates. One of the most critical components in such gridded estimates is the relationship between built-up areas and population located in these areas. This relationship is rarely static and accurately estimating changes in built-areas through time and the changing human population around them is critical when applying gridded population datasets in studies of other environmental change. The research presented here discusses these issues in the context of multitemporal, gridded population data, using new technologies and sources of remotely-sensed and modeled built-up areas. We discuss applications of these data in environmental analyses and intercomparisons with other such data across scales.

  12. Population dynamics, life-history traits of and habitat use by two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and life-history traits of two sympatric nothobranchiid killifishes, Epiplatys bifasciatus and E. spilargyreius, were studied for 24 months in an intermittent stream in the Kainji Lake Basin, Nigeria. Epiplatys bifasciatus was more abundant throughout the study period, but monthly abundance of both species ...

  13. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

  14. Topological edge states and impurities: Manifestation in the local static and dynamical characteristics of dimerized quantum chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvyagin, A. A.

    2018-04-01

    Based on the results of exact analytic calculations, we show that topological edge states and impurities in quantum dimerized chains manifest themselves in various local static and dynamical characteristics, which can be measured in experiments. In particular, topological edge states can be observed in the magnetic field behavior of the local magnetization or magnetic susceptibility of dimerized spin chains as jumps (for the magnetization) and features (for the static susceptibility) at zero field. In contrast, impurities reveal themselves in similar jumps and features, however, at nonzero values of the critical field. We also show that dynamical characteristics of dimerized quantum chains also manifest the features, related to the topological edge states and impurities. Those features, as a rule, can be seen more sharply than the manifestation of bulk extended states in, e.g., the dynamical local susceptibility. Such peculiarities can be observed in one-dimensional dimerized spin chains, e.g., in NMR experiments, or in various realizations of quantum dimerized chains in optical experiments.

  15. Visualization of local Ca2+ dynamics with genetically encoded bioluminescent reporters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Kelly L; Stinnakre, Jacques; Agulhon, Cendra; Jublot, Delphine; Shorte, Spencer L; Kremer, Eric J; Brûlet, Philippe

    2005-02-01

    Measurements of local Ca2+ signalling at different developmental stages and/or in specific cell types is important for understanding aspects of brain functioning. The use of light excitation in fluorescence imaging can cause phototoxicity, photobleaching and auto-fluorescence. In contrast, bioluminescence does not require the input of radiative energy and can therefore be measured over long periods, with very high temporal resolution. Aequorin is a genetically encoded Ca(2+)-sensitive bioluminescent protein, however, its low quantum yield prevents dynamic measurements of Ca2+ responses in single cells. To overcome this limitation, we recently reported the bi-functional Ca2+ reporter gene, GFP-aequorin (GA), which was developed specifically to improve the light output and stability of aequorin chimeras [V. Baubet, et al., (2000) PNAS, 97, 7260-7265]. In the current study, we have genetically targeted GA to different microdomains important in synaptic transmission, including to the mitochondrial matrix, endoplasmic reticulum, synaptic vesicles and to the postsynaptic density. We demonstrate that these reporters enable 'real-time' measurements of subcellular Ca2+ changes in single mammalian neurons using bioluminescence. The high signal-to-noise ratio of these reporters is also important in that it affords the visualization of Ca2+ dynamics in cell-cell communication in neuronal cultures and tissue slices. Further, we demonstrate the utility of this approach in ex-vivo preparations of mammalian retina, a paradigm in which external light input should be controlled. This represents a novel molecular imaging approach for non-invasive monitoring of local Ca2+ dynamics and cellular communication in tissue or whole animal studies.

  16. The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay M Beck-Johnson

    Full Text Available The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

  17. Prophage-mediated dynamics of 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' populations, the destructive bacterial pathogens of citrus huanglongbing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijuan Zhou

    Full Text Available Prophages are highly dynamic components in the bacterial genome and play an important role in intraspecies variations. There are at least two prophages in the chromosomes of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' (Las Floridian isolates. Las is both unculturable and the most prevalent species of Liberibacter pathogens that cause huanglongbing (HLB, a worldwide destructive disease of citrus. In this study, seven new prophage variants resulting from two hyper-variable regions were identified by screening clone libraries of infected citrus, periwinkle and psyllids. Among them, Types A and B share highly conserved sequences and localize within the two prophages, FP1 and FP2, respectively. Although Types B and C were abundant in all three libraries, Type A was much more abundant in the libraries from the Las-infected psyllids than from the Las-infected plants, and Type D was only identified in libraries from the infected host plants but not from the infected psyllids. Sequence analysis of these variants revealed that the variations may result from recombination and rearrangement events. Conventional PCR results using type-specific molecular markers indicated that A, B, C and D are the four most abundant types in Las-infected citrus and periwinkle. However, only three types, A, B and C are abundant in Las-infected psyllids. Typing results for Las-infected citrus field samples indicated that mixed populations of Las bacteria present in Floridian isolates, but only the Type D population was correlated with the blotchy mottle symptom. Extended cloning and sequencing of the Type D region revealed a third prophage/phage in the Las genome, which may derive from the recombination of FP1 and FP2. Dramatic variations in these prophage regions were also found among the global Las isolates. These results are the first to demonstrate the prophage/phage-mediated dynamics of Las populations in plant and insect hosts, and their correlation with insect transmission and

  18. Prophage-mediated dynamics of 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' populations, the destructive bacterial pathogens of citrus huanglongbing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Lijuan; Powell, Charles A; Li, Wenbin; Irey, Mike; Duan, Yongping

    2013-01-01

    Prophages are highly dynamic components in the bacterial genome and play an important role in intraspecies variations. There are at least two prophages in the chromosomes of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' (Las) Floridian isolates. Las is both unculturable and the most prevalent species of Liberibacter pathogens that cause huanglongbing (HLB), a worldwide destructive disease of citrus. In this study, seven new prophage variants resulting from two hyper-variable regions were identified by screening clone libraries of infected citrus, periwinkle and psyllids. Among them, Types A and B share highly conserved sequences and localize within the two prophages, FP1 and FP2, respectively. Although Types B and C were abundant in all three libraries, Type A was much more abundant in the libraries from the Las-infected psyllids than from the Las-infected plants, and Type D was only identified in libraries from the infected host plants but not from the infected psyllids. Sequence analysis of these variants revealed that the variations may result from recombination and rearrangement events. Conventional PCR results using type-specific molecular markers indicated that A, B, C and D are the four most abundant types in Las-infected citrus and periwinkle. However, only three types, A, B and C are abundant in Las-infected psyllids. Typing results for Las-infected citrus field samples indicated that mixed populations of Las bacteria present in Floridian isolates, but only the Type D population was correlated with the blotchy mottle symptom. Extended cloning and sequencing of the Type D region revealed a third prophage/phage in the Las genome, which may derive from the recombination of FP1 and FP2. Dramatic variations in these prophage regions were also found among the global Las isolates. These results are the first to demonstrate the prophage/phage-mediated dynamics of Las populations in plant and insect hosts, and their correlation with insect transmission and disease development.

  19. Red Sea Acropora hemprichii Bacterial Population Dynamics under Adverse Anthropogenic Conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Lizcano, Javier

    2012-08-01

    Reef-building corals are cornerstones of life in the oceans. Understanding their interactions with microorganisms and their surrounding physicochemical conditions is important to comprehend reef functioning and ultimately protect coral reef ecosystems. Corals associate with a complex and specific array of microorganisms that supposedly affect their physiology and therefore can significantly determine the condition of a coral ecosystem. As environmental conditions may shape bacterial diversity and ecology in the coral symbiosis, ecosystem changes might have unfavorable consequences for the holobiont, to date poorly understood. Here, we were studying microbial community changes in A. hemprichii as a consequence of simulated eutrophication and overfishing over a period of 16 weeks by using in situ caging and slow release fertilizer treatments in an undisturbed Red Sea reef (22.18ºN, 38.57ºW). We used 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing to evaluate the individual and combined effects of overnutrification and fishing pressure, two of the most common local threats to coral reefs. With our data we hope to better understand bacterial population dynamics under anthropogenic influences and its role in coral resilience. Projecting further, this data will be useful to better predict the consequences of human activity on reef ecosystems.

  20. Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M. Calvert

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1 more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2 an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3 the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.

  1. Analysis of correlation structure in Lymantria dispar L. larvae from locally adapted populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mrdaković Marija

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The influence of allelochemical stress and population origin on the patterns of phenotypic and genetic correlations among life history traits and digestive enzyme activities were investigated in larvae of the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.; Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae. Thirty-two full-sib families from oak (suitable host plant, Quercus population, and twenty-six full-sib families from locust-tree (unsuitable host plant, Robinia population forests were reared on an artificial diet, with or without a 5% tannic acid supplement. Comparison of correlation matrices revealed significant similarity between the two populations in the structure of phenotypic and genetic correlations of life history traits and of digestive enzyme activities. The patterns of correlations of the examined traits, within each of the two locally adapted populations and in the presence of allelochemical stress, remained stabile despite the different selection pressures that mold these traits. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 173027

  2. Extinction transition in stochastic population dynamics in a random, convective environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juhász, Róbert

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by modeling the dynamics of a population living in a flowing medium where the environmental factors are random in space, we have studied an asymmetric variant of the one-dimensional contact process, where the quenched random reproduction rates are systematically greater in one direction than in the opposite one. The spatial disorder turns out to be a relevant perturbation but, according to results of Monte Carlo simulations, the behavior of the model at the extinction transition is different from the (infinite-randomness) critical behavior of the disordered symmetric contact process. Depending on the strength a of the asymmetry, the critical population drifts either with a finite velocity or with an asymptotically vanishing velocity as x(t) ∼ t μ(a) , where μ(a) < 1. Dynamical quantities are non-self-averaging at the extinction transition; the survival probability, for instance, shows multiscaling, i.e. it is characterized by a broad spectrum of effective exponents. For a sufficiently weak asymmetry, a Griffiths phase appears below the extinction transition, where the survival probability decays as a non-universal power of the time while, above the transition, another extended phase emerges, where the front of the population advances anomalously with a diffusion exponent continuously varying with the control parameter. (paper)

  3. Adaptation dynamics of laboratory populations of Drosophila Melanogaster to low dose chronic ionizing irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zajnullin, V.G.; Yushkova, E.A.

    2008-01-01

    In genetically non-uniform populations D. melanogaster in conditions of a chronic irradiation in a doze 10-11 about sGy/generation dynamics parameters of populations was investigated. It is established, that number of individuals in irradiated populations is lower, than in control. It is revealed, that viability of populations undergone to a chronic irradiation depends on their genotype. The gradual increase in fruitfulness, viability of individuals and decrease in a level of lethal mutations in a number of generations after of an irradiation in low doses is caused by adaptable opportunities of populations. (authors)

  4. LOCAL POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN THE GENERAL ELECTION DIRECTLY CONDUCTED TO VOTE FOR DISTRICT HEADS (PILKADA IN BADUNG REGENCY IN 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anak Agung Gede Oka Wisnumurti

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The general election directly conducted to vote for the regent and vice regent(Pemilihan Kepala Daerah, abbreviated to Pilkada by the people in Badung Regency in2005 was the first one. The people’s direct involvement in the local political life movedhighly dynamically. The struggle for power by various strengths affected variousdimensions of the people’s lives; therefore, it is interesting to investigate the localpolitical dynamics in the Pilkada directly conducted in Badung Regency in 2005 in theperspective of cultural studies. There are three problems formulated in this study. Theyare (1 what was the dynamics of the Pilkada directly conducted in Badung Regency in2005 like?; (2 how the relation of strengths affected the local political dynamics in thePilkada directly conducted in Badung Regency in 2005?; (3 what were the implicationsand meanings of the local political dynamics of the Pilkada directly conducted in BadungRegency in 2005?The results of the study show that fluctuative changes took place continuouslywith regard to the form and functions of societal structure. Culturally, the people’sideology changed from being mono centric into being multi centric. The relation ofstrengths became segmented into three main strengths forming a new formation ofstrength referred to as trisula. This led to an institutional configuration, differentiation ofpower and locality sedimentation, and provided meanings to competition and tolerance,emancipatory, political comodification, adaptive leadership and local democratic culturalstrengthening.

  5. Local structural mechanism for frozen-in dynamics in metallic glasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X. J.; Wang, S. D.; Wang, H.; Wu, Y.; Liu, C. T.; Li, M.; Lu, Z. P.

    2018-04-01

    The nature of the glass transition is a fundamental and long-standing intriguing issue in the condensed-matter physics and materials science community. In particular, the structural response by which a liquid is arrested dynamically to form a glass or amorphous solid upon approaching its freezing temperature [the glass transition temperature (Tg)] remains unclear. Various structural scenarios in terms of the percolation theory have been proposed recently to understand such a phenomenon; however, there is still no consensus on what the general percolation entity is and how the entity responds to the sudden slowdown dynamics during the glass transition. In this paper, we demonstrate that one-dimensional local linear ordering (LLO) is a universal structural motif associated with the glass transition for various metallic glasses. The quantitative evolution of LLO with temperature indicates that a percolating LLO network forms to serve as the backbone of the rigid glass solid when the temperature approaches the freezing point, resulting in the frozen-in dynamics accompanying the glass transition. The percolation transition occurs by pinning different LLO networks together, which only needs the introduction of a small number of "joint" atoms between them, and therefore the energy expenditure is very low.

  6. Dynamics of genetic processes in chronically irradiated populations of small mammals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryabokon', N.I.; Goncharova, R.I.; Smolich, I.I.; Kapitanova, N.P.; Nikitchenko, N.V.

    2000-01-01

    The distinctive features of dynamics of mutagenesis in mammalian populations under chronic low-intensive irradiation were first revealed. The main of them is gradual increase in mutability in somatic cells and embryonal lethality during series of irradiated generations of animals (bank vole - Clethrionomys glareolus). The data obtained strongly suggest that there are oppositely directed processes in natural populations after irradiation of more than 20 generations of animals: on the one hand, accumulation of mutations (genetic load of populations) and pre-mutation events which increase genome instability of germ and somatic cells in consecutive generations of animals, and on the other, formation of genetic radio adaptation through better functioning protection systems. In this period of micro evolution in chronically irradiated populations, the frequencies of genetic damages could be higher if the radiation adaptation doesn't form. (authors)

  7. Dynamic population artificial bee colony algorithm for multi-objective optimal power flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Ding

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic population (ABC-DP, which synergizes the idea of extended life-cycle evolving model to balance the exploration and exploitation tradeoff. The proposed ABC-DP is a more bee-colony-realistic model that the bee can reproduce and die dynamically throughout the foraging process and population size varies as the algorithm runs. ABC-DP is then used for solving the optimal power flow (OPF problem in power systems that considers the cost, loss, and emission impacts as the objective functions. The 30-bus IEEE test system is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed algorithm. The simulation results, which are also compared to nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGAII and multi-objective ABC (MOABC, are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

  8. Predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics on stepping-stone domains with dispersal delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eide, Ragna M; Krause, Andrew L; Fadai, Nabil T; Van Gorder, Robert A

    2018-08-14

    We examine the role of the travel time of a predator along a spatial network on predator-prey population interactions, where the predator is able to partially or fully sustain itself on a resource subsidy. The impact of access to food resources on the stability and behaviour of the predator-prey-subsidy system is investigated, with a primary focus on how incorporating travel time changes the dynamics. The population interactions are modelled by a system of delay differential equations, where travel time is incorporated as discrete delay in the network diffusion term in order to model time taken to migrate between spatial regions. The model is motivated by the Arctic ecosystem, where the Arctic fox consumes both hunted lemming and scavenged seal carcass. The fox travels out on sea ice, in addition to quadrennially migrating over substantial distances. We model the spatial predator-prey-subsidy dynamics through a "stepping-stone" approach. We find that a temporal delay alone does not push species into extinction, but rather may stabilize or destabilize coexistence equilibria. We are able to show that delay can stabilize quasi-periodic or chaotic dynamics, and conclude that the incorporation of dispersal delay has a regularizing effect on dynamics, suggesting that dispersal delay can be proposed as a solution to the paradox of enrichment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Numerical modeling of local scour around hydraulic structure in sandy beds by dynamic mesh method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Fei; Liang, Bingchen; Bai, Yuchuan; Zhu, Zhixia; Zhu, Yanjun

    2017-10-01

    Local scour, a non-negligible factor in hydraulic engineering, endangers the safety of hydraulic structures. In this work, a numerical model for simulating local scour was constructed, based on the open source code computational fluid dynamics model OpenFOAM. We consider both the bedload and suspended load sediment transport in the scour model and adopt the dynamic mesh method to simulate the evolution of the bed elevation. We use the finite area method to project data between the three-dimensional flow model and the two-dimensional (2D) scour model. We also improved the 2D sand slide method and added it to the scour model to correct the bed bathymetry when the bed slope angle exceeds the angle of repose. Moreover, to validate our scour model, we conducted and compared the results of three experiments with those of the developed model. The validation results show that our developed model can reliably simulate local scour.

  10. Investigating the Genetic Diversity, Population Differentiation and Population Dynamics of Cycas segmentifida (Cycadaceae Endemic to Southwest China by Multiple Molecular Markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuyan Feng

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, species dispersal ability and habitat fragmentation are major factors influencing species distribution and genetic diversity, especially for the range-restricted and threatened taxa. Here, using four sequences of chloroplast DNAs (cpDNAs, three nuclear genes (nDNAs and 12 nuclear microsatellites (SSRs, we investigated the genetic diversity, genetic structure, divergence time and population dynamics of Cycas segmentifida D. Y. Wang and C. Y. Deng, a threatened cycad species endemic to Southwest China. High levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation were revealed in C. segmentifida. Haplotypes of networks showed two evolutionary units in C. segmentifida, with the exception of the nuclear gene GTP network. Meanwhile, the UPGMA tree, structure and PCoA analyses suggested that 14 populations of C. segmentifida were divided into two clades. There was significant effect of isolation by distance (IBD in this species. However, this species did not display a significant phylogeographic structure. The divergence time estimation suggested that its haplotypes diverged during the Middle Pleistocene. Additionally, the population dynamics inferred from different DNA sequences analyses were discordant. Bottleneck analysis showed that populations of C. segmentifida did not experience any recent bottleneck effect, but rather pointed to a contraction of its effective population size over time. Furthermore, our results suggested that the population BM which held an intact population structure and occupied undisturbed habitat was at the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, implying that this population is a free-mating system. These genetic features provide important information for the sustainable management of C. segmentifida.

  11. Locally optimal extracellular stimulation for chaotic desynchronization of neural populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Dan; Moehlis, Jeff

    2014-10-01

    We use optimal control theory to design a methodology to find locally optimal stimuli for desynchronization of a model of neurons with extracellular stimulation. This methodology yields stimuli which lead to positive Lyapunov exponents, and hence desynchronizes a neural population. We analyze this methodology in the presence of interneuron coupling to make predictions about the strength of stimulation required to overcome synchronizing effects of coupling. This methodology suggests a powerful alternative to pulsatile stimuli for deep brain stimulation as it uses less energy than pulsatile stimuli, and could eliminate the time consuming tuning process.

  12. Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUWARNO

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Suwarno (2010 Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons. Biodiversitas 11: 19-23. The population dynamic of Papilio polytes L. (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons was investigated in the citrus orchard in Tasek Gelugor, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. Population of immature stages of P. polytes was observed alternate day from January to March 2006 (dry season, DS, from April to July 2006 (secondary wet season, SWS, and from October to December 2006 (primary wet season, PWS. The population dynamics of the immature stages of P. polytes varied between seasons. The immature stages of P. polytes are more abundance and significantly different in the PWS than those of the DS and the SWS. The larval densities in all seasons decreased with progressive development of the instar stages. Predators and parasitoids are the main factor in regulating the population abundance of immature stages of P. polytes. There were positive correlations between the abundance of immature stages of P. polytes and their natural enemies abundance in each season. Ooencyrtus papilioni Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae is the most egg parasitoid. Oxyopes quadrifasciatus L. Koch. and O. elegans L. Koch. (Araneae: Oxyopidae are the main predators in the young larvae, meanwhile Sycanus dichotomus Stal. (Heteroptera: Reduviidae, Calotes versicolor Fitzinger (Squamata: Agamidae, birds and praying mantis attacked the older larvae.

  13. Stand development and population dynamics of curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) woodlands in Utah's Bear River Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth A. Ex; Robert DeRose; James N. Long

    2011-01-01

    Curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) is a little-studied woodland tree that occurs in pure stands throughout the Intermountain West. Stand development and population dynamics of this species are poorly understood, despite their relevance to management. We describe here the development of stand age structures and population dynamics of mahogany...

  14. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity

  15. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity.

  16. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  17. The dynamics of diverse segmental amplifications in populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae adapting to strong selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payen, Celia; Di Rienzi, Sara C; Ong, Giang T; Pogachar, Jamie L; Sanchez, Joseph C; Sunshine, Anna B; Raghuraman, M K; Brewer, Bonita J; Dunham, Maitreya J

    2014-03-20

    Population adaptation to strong selection can occur through the sequential or parallel accumulation of competing beneficial mutations. The dynamics, diversity, and rate of fixation of beneficial mutations within and between populations are still poorly understood. To study how the mutational landscape varies across populations during adaptation, we performed experimental evolution on seven parallel populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae continuously cultured in limiting sulfate medium. By combining quantitative polymerase chain reaction, array comparative genomic hybridization, restriction digestion and contour-clamped homogeneous electric field gel electrophoresis, and whole-genome sequencing, we followed the trajectory of evolution to determine the identity and fate of beneficial mutations. During a period of 200 generations, the yeast populations displayed parallel evolutionary dynamics that were driven by the coexistence of independent beneficial mutations. Selective amplifications rapidly evolved under this selection pressure, in particular common inverted amplifications containing the sulfate transporter gene SUL1. Compared with single clones, detailed analysis of the populations uncovers a greater complexity whereby multiple subpopulations arise and compete despite a strong selection. The most common evolutionary adaptation to strong selection in these populations grown in sulfate limitation is determined by clonal interference, with adaptive variants both persisting and replacing one another.

  18. Representation of dynamical stimuli in populations of threshold neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Tchumatchenko

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework.

  19. Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.

  20. Experimental evolution and the dynamics of adaptation and genome evolution in microbial populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenski, Richard E

    2017-10-01

    Evolution is an on-going process, and it can be studied experimentally in organisms with rapid generations. My team has maintained 12 populations of Escherichia coli in a simple laboratory environment for >25 years and 60 000 generations. We have quantified the dynamics of adaptation by natural selection, seen some of the populations diverge into stably coexisting ecotypes, described changes in the bacteria's mutation rate, observed the new ability to exploit a previously untapped carbon source, characterized the dynamics of genome evolution and used parallel evolution to identify the genetic targets of selection. I discuss what the future might hold for this particular experiment, briefly highlight some other microbial evolution experiments and suggest how the fields of experimental evolution and microbial ecology might intersect going forward.

  1. [Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boland, B

    1995-12-01

    The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

  2. Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyman, James M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Restrepo, Juan M [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Rael, Rosalyn C [UNIV OF ARIZONA

    2009-01-01

    We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.

  3. Generalization of the Rabi population inversion dynamics in the sub-one-cycle pulse limit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doslic, N.

    2006-01-01

    We consider the population inversion in a two-level system generated by a sub-one-cycle pulse excitation. Specifically, we explore the effect that the time derivative of the pulse envelope has on the Rabi dynamics. Our analysis is based on a combination of analytical, perturbative, and nonperturbative treatments and is complemented by numerical simulations. We find a shortening of the Rabi inversion period and show that complete inversion is unobtainable under resonant, ultrashort pulse conditions. The impact of nonresonant and carrier-envelope phase-dependent effects on the dynamics of two-level and multilevel systems is studied numerically, and conditions for complete population inversion are derived

  4. Distributed model predictive control for constrained nonlinear systems with decoupled local dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Meng; Ding, Baocang

    2015-03-01

    This paper considers the distributed model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear large-scale systems with dynamically decoupled subsystems. According to the coupled state in the overall cost function of centralized MPC, the neighbors are confirmed and fixed for each subsystem, and the overall objective function is disassembled into each local optimization. In order to guarantee the closed-loop stability of distributed MPC algorithm, the overall compatibility constraint for centralized MPC algorithm is decomposed into each local controller. The communication between each subsystem and its neighbors is relatively low, only the current states before optimization and the optimized input variables after optimization are being transferred. For each local controller, the quasi-infinite horizon MPC algorithm is adopted, and the global closed-loop system is proven to be exponentially stable. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Modeling population dynamics of mitochondria in mammalian cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kornick, Kellianne; Das, Moumita

    Mitochondria are organelles located inside eukaryotic cells and are essential for several key cellular processes such as energy (ATP) production, cell signaling, differentiation, and apoptosis. All organisms are believed to have low levels of variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and alterations in mtDNA are connected to a range of human health conditions, including epilepsy, heart failure, Parkinsons disease, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Therefore, understanding how changes in mtDNA accumulate over time and are correlated to changes in mitochondrial function and cell properties can have a profound impact on our understanding of cell physiology and the origins of some diseases. Motivated by this, we develop and study a mathematical model to determine which cellular parameters have the largest impact on mtDNA population dynamics. The model consists of coupled ODEs to describe subpopulations of healthy and dysfunctional mitochondria subject to mitochondrial fission, fusion, autophagy, and mutation. We study the time evolution and stability of each sub-population under specific selection biases and pressures by tuning specific terms in our model. Our results may provide insights into how sub-populations of mitochondria survive and evolve under different selection pressures. This work was supported by a Grant from the Moore Foundation.

  6. Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

    2016-09-01

    Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Reproduction and population dynamics of Mastomys natalensis Smith, 1834 in an agricultural landscape in the Western Usambara Mountains, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makundi, Rhodes H; Massawe, Apia W; Mulungu, Loth S

    2007-12-01

    The multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis Smith 1834, is a dominant species in agro-ecosystems in Sub-Saharan Africa, but adapts quickly to changes in non-agricultural landscape, particularly woodlands and forests. In this study we report on reproduction and population dynamics of M. natalensis in deforested high elevation localities in the Usambara Mountains, north-east Tanzania. We conducted Capture-Mark-Recapture studies in 2002-2004, and established that reproduction of M. natalensis takes place in the extended wet season between February and June, and the population density peaks in June-August. Reproduction cease in July to January and population density drops from July onwards. Reproduction and population density fluctuations are linked to the duration and amount of rainfall. In years when rainfall was below average and the wet season was short, the population density was significantly lower (below 10 animals/ha and 60 animals/ha in 2003 and 2004 respectively, compared to >100 animals/ha in 2002 when rainfall was above the seasonal average) (F(df 2,13)= 9.092, p forestry areas showed higher population densities in the former, which have similarities to the preferred habitats in the lowland savannahs. The increasing abundance of M. natalensis in the Usambara could have some consequences: M. natalensis is major pest and is involved in the plague cycle in the western Usambara Mountains. Mastomys natalensis is also a strong competitor and the impact on endemic rodent species, e.g. Lophuromys flavopunctatus and Praomys delectorum is unknown.

  8. Including local rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions into a 2-D regional-local flood modelling cascade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bermúdez, María; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Bates, Paul D.; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim E.; Cea, Luis; Puertas, Jerónimo

    2016-04-01

    Flood inundation models require appropriate boundary conditions to be specified at the limits of the domain, which commonly consist of upstream flow rate and downstream water level. These data are usually acquired from gauging stations on the river network where measured water levels are converted to discharge via a rating curve. Derived streamflow estimates are therefore subject to uncertainties in this rating curve, including extrapolating beyond the maximum observed ratings magnitude. In addition, the limited number of gauges in reach-scale studies often requires flow to be routed from the nearest upstream gauge to the boundary of the model domain. This introduces additional uncertainty, derived not only from the flow routing method used, but also from the additional lateral rainfall-runoff contributions downstream of the gauging point. Although generally assumed to have a minor impact on discharge in fluvial flood modeling, this local hydrological input may become important in a sparse gauge network or in events with significant local rainfall. In this study, a method to incorporate rating curve uncertainty and the local rainfall-runoff dynamics into the predictions of a reach-scale flood inundation model is proposed. Discharge uncertainty bounds are generated by applying a non-parametric local weighted regression approach to stage-discharge measurements for two gauging stations, while measured rainfall downstream from these locations is cascaded into a hydrological model to quantify additional inflows along the main channel. A regional simplified-physics hydraulic model is then applied to combine these inputs and generate an ensemble of discharge and water elevation time series at the boundaries of a local-scale high complexity hydraulic model. Finally, the effect of these rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions are evaluated on the local-scale model. Improvements in model performance when incorporating these processes are quantified using observed

  9. Analysis of economic values of land use and land cover changes in crisis territories by satellite data: models of socio-economy and population dynamics in war

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Yuschenko, Maxim; Movchan, Dmytro; Kopachevsky, Ivan

    2017-10-01

    Problem of remote sensing data harnessing for decision making in conflict territories is considered. Approach for analysis of socio-economic and demographic parameters with a limited set of data and deep uncertainty is described. Number of interlinked techniques to estimate a population and economy in crisis territories are proposed. Stochastic method to assessment of population dynamics using multi-source data using remote sensing data is proposed. Adaptive Markov's chain based method to study of land-use changes using satellite data is proposed. Proposed approach is applied to analysis of socio-economic situation in Donbas (East Ukraine) territory of conflict in 2014-2015. Land-use and landcover