WorldWideScience

Sample records for local population declines

  1. AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

  2. Predicting the effects of copper on local population decline of 2 marine organisms, cobia fish and whiteleg shrimp, based on avoidance response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Cristiano V M; Cedeño-Macías, Luís A; Vera-Vera, Victoria C; Salvatierra, David; Rodríguez, Elizabeth N V; Zambrano, Ufredo; Kuri, Samir

    2016-02-01

    The present study focuses on avoidance response to predict population decline of the marine fish Rachycentron canadum (cobia) and larvae of the estuarine shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei (whiteleg shrimp). Avoidance of approximately 60% was recorded for the cobia fry exposed to 1.0 mg Cu/L, 1.60 mg Cu/L, and 1.80 mg Cu/L. For the shrimp larvae, avoidance was approximately 80% for all Cu concentrations. The population decline of cobia fry was conditioned by avoidance in lower concentrations. However, in higher concentrations mortality begins to play an important role. The displacement toward uncontaminated habitats might determine shrimp population decline. A Cu-contaminated environment can determine the habitat selection of both species and, therefore, their local population decline. © 2015 SETAC.

  3. Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik P. Van Dalen

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available European countries are experiencing population decline and the tacit assumption in most analyses is that the decline may have detrimental welfare effects. In this paper we use a survey among the population in the Netherlands to discover whether population decline is always met with fear. A number of results stand out: population size preferences differ by geographic proximity: at a global level the majority of respondents favors a (global population decline, but closer to home one supports a stationary population. Population decline is clearly not always met with fear: 31 percent would like the population to decline at the national level and they generally perceive decline to be accompanied by immaterial welfare gains (improvement environment as well as material welfare losses (tax increases, economic stagnation. In addition to these driving forces it appears that the attitude towards immigrants is a very strong determinant at all geographical levels: immigrants seem to be a stronger fear factor than population decline.

  4. Changes in land use as a possible factor in Mourning Dove population decline in Central Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrand, William D.; Meyers, P.M.; Bissonette, J.A.; Conover, M.R.

    1998-01-01

    Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura) population indices for the western United States have declined significantly since 1966. Based on data collected in 1951-1952, in Fillmore, Utah, we examined whether there had been a local decline in the dove population index since the original data were collected. We then determined whether habitat had been altered, identified which foraging habitats doves preferred, and assessed whether changes in land use could be responsible, in part, for a decline in the local population index. We found that dove population indices declined 72% and 82% from 1952-1992 and 1952-1993, respectively. The most dramatic change in habitat was an 82% decline in land devoted to dry land winter wheat production and a decline in livestock feed pens. Doves foraged primarily in harvested wheat fields, feed pens, and weedy patches. We hypothesize that a decrease in wheat availability during the spring and the consolidation of the livestock industry have contributed to a population decline of Mourning Doves in central Utah.

  5. Local and global influences on population declines of coastal waders: Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima numbers in the Moray Firth, Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Ron W.; Foster, Simon; Swann, Bob; Etheridge, Brian

    2012-05-01

    population had responded to changes in the local sewage treatment systems, which could affect invertebrate food for Purple Sandpipers, or whether fewer birds chose to winter in Scotland. The Moray Firth population is derived from Norway and possibly Canada, and there is evidence that the Norwegian population was disproportionately affected. The reason for poor recruitment requires further study, and other wader species require examination to test if poor recruitment is a common feature of decline in numbers.

  6. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    OpenAIRE

    Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

    2010-01-01

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined ...

  7. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  8. Breeding season food limitation drives population decline of the Little Owl Athene noctua in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorup, Kasper; Sunde, Peter; Jacobsen, Lars B.

    2010-01-01

    landscape, has declined over most of northwestern Europe, including Denmark. We investigated the likely reasons for the population decline in Denmark by identifying patterns of local extinction (scale, 5 x 5 km2) and estimating demographic parameters affecting local survival, focusing on changes over time...

  9. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading, C J; Luiselli, L M; Akani, G C; Bonnet, X; Amori, G; Ballouard, J M; Filippi, E; Naulleau, G; Pearson, D; Rugiero, L

    2010-12-23

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.

  10. [Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurz, R

    1982-05-01

    The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

  11. Local bumble bee decline linked to recovery of honey bees, drought effects on floral resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Diane M

    2016-10-01

    Time series of abundances are critical for understanding how abiotic factors and species interactions affect population dynamics, but are rarely linked with experiments and also scarce for bee pollinators. This gap is important given concerns about declines in some bee species. I monitored honey bee (Apis mellifera) and bumble bee (Bombus spp.) foragers in coastal California from 1999, when feral A. mellifera populations were low due to Varroa destructor, until 2014. Apis mellifera increased substantially, except between 2006 and 2011, coinciding with declines in managed populations. Increases in A. mellifera strongly correlated with declines in Bombus and reduced diet overlap between them, suggesting resource competition consistent with past experimental results. Lower Bombus numbers also correlated with diminished floral resources. Declines in floral abundances were associated with drought and reduced spring rainfall. These results illustrate how competition with an introduced species may interact with climate to drive local decline of native pollinators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  12. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  13. Has contemporary climate change played a role in population declines of the lizard Ctenophorus decresii from semi-arid Australia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Samantha; Stuart-Fox, Devi; Kearney, Michael R

    2015-12-01

    Whilst contemporary climatic changes are small in magnitude compared to those predicted for the coming decades, they have already been linked to species range shifts and local extinctions. Elucidating the drivers behind species' responses to contemporary climate change will better inform management strategies for vulnerable and pest species alike. A recent proposal to explain worldwide local extinctions in lizards is that increasing maximum temperatures have constrained lizard activity time in the breeding season beyond extinction thresholds. Here we document a significant population decline and potential local extinction at the warm (northern) range margin of the tawny dragon, Ctenophorus decresii, a rock-dwelling lizard from the Flinders Ranges in semi-arid Australia. We developed and tested a biophysical model of tawny dragon thermoregulatory behaviour and drove the model with daily weather data for the period 1990-2009 across the Flinders Ranges. Our results indicate that potential annual activity time has likely increased over this period throughout the historic range, with within-season declines only in the summer months at the northern range limit. However, populations that have declined since 2000 have also likely experienced higher active body temperatures and more stringent retreat-site requirements (deeper crevices) than have regions where the species remains common, during a period of declining rainfall. Our laboratory estimates of thermal preference in this species were insensitive to altered nutritional and hydric state. Thus it is possible that recent population declines are linked to desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall. Our study illustrates that simple indices of the impact of climate warming on animals, such as activity restriction, may in fact reflect a variety of potential mechanisms whose ultimate outcome will be contingent on other factors such as water and shelter availability. Copyright © 2014

  14. Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

    2013-08-01

    A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline

  15. Human Population Decline in North America during the Younger Dryas

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    Anderson, D. G.; Goodyear, A. C.; Stafford, T. W., Jr.; Kennett, J.; West, A.

    2009-12-01

    There is ongoing debate about a possible human population decline or contraction at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) at 12.9 ka. We used two methods to test whether the YD affected human population levels: (1) frequency analyses of Paleoindian projectile points, and (2) summed probability analyses of radiocarbon (14C) dates. The results suggest that a significant decline or reorganization of human populations occurred at 12.9 ka, continued through the initial centuries of the YD chronozone, then rebounded by the end of the YD. FREQUENCY ANALYSES: This method employed projectile point data from the Paleoindian Database of the Americas (PIDBA, http://pidba.utk.edu). We tallied diagnostic projectile points and obtained larger totals for Clovis points than for immediately post-Clovis points, which share an instrument-assisted fluting technique, typically using pressure or indirect percussion. Gainey, Vail, Debert, Redstone, and Cumberland point-styles utilized this method and are comparable to the Folsom style. For the SE U.S., the ratio of Clovis points (n=1993) to post-Clovis points (n=947) reveals a point decline of 52%. For the Great Plains, a comparison of Clovis and fluted points (n=4020) to Folsom points (n=2527) shows a point decline of 37%, which may translate into a population contraction of similar magnitude. In addition, eight major Clovis lithic quarry sites in the SE U.S. exhibit little to no evidence for immediate post-Clovis occupations, implying a major population decline. SUMMED PROBABILITIES: This method involved calibrating relevant 14C dates and combining the probabilities, after which major peaks and troughs in the trends are assumed to reflect changes in human demographics. Using 14C dates from Buchanan et al. (2008), we analyzed multiple regions, including the Southeast and Great Plains. Contrary to Buchanan et al., we found an abrupt, statistically significant decline at 12.9 ka, followed 200 to 900 years later by a rebound in the number of

  16. LOCAL POPULATION CHANGE AND VARIATIONS IN RACIAL INTEGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellman, Benjamin; Spielman, Seth E; Franklin, Rachel S

    2018-03-01

    While population growth has been consistently tied to decreasing racial segregation at the metropolitan level in the United States, little work has been done to relate small-scale changes in population size to integration. We address this question through a novel technique that tracks population changes by race and ethnicity for comparable geographies in both 2000 and 2010. Using the Theil Index, we analyze the fifty most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 2010 for changes in multigroup segregation. We classify local areas by their net population change between 2000 and 2010 using a novel unit of analysis based on aggregating census blocks. We find strong evidence that growing parts of rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the United States are crucial to understanding regional differences in segregation that have emerged in past decades. Multigroup segregation declined the most in growing parts of growing metropolitan areas. Comparatively, growing parts of shrinking or stagnant metropolitan areas were less diverse and had smaller declines in segregation. We also find that local areas with shrinking populations had disproportionately high minority representation in 2000 before population loss took place. We conclude that the regional context of population growth or decline has important consequences for the residential mixing of racial groups.

  17. Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

    2012-02-01

    Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little

  18. Population and colony-level determinants of tertiary sex ratio in the declining barn swallow.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Saino

    Full Text Available Sex ratio of adults (tertiary sex ratio, TSR is a major feature of animal populations with consequences for their behaviour, genetic structure and viability. Spatial and temporal variation in TSR occurs within species but the mechanisms behind it are poorly understood. In this long-term study of a declining population of a socially monogamous, colonial, migratory bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica, we first analyzed population-level variation in TSR ( =  proportion of males of yearlings at sexual maturation in relation to ecological conditions as gauged by annual survival rate of adults. TSR was male-biased both among yearlings and older individuals, but male bias of yearlings was more pronounced after years with larger decline in adult survival. Thus, male offspring were less susceptible to the adverse ecological conditions that cause increased mortality. Dispersal and settling site decisions can have major consequences on fitness via the effects of local TSR on mating and sperm competition. Breeding barn swallows are highly philopatric while natal dispersal is high and, together with mortality, is the main determinant of colony TSR. We thus also investigated the mechanisms of breeding colony choice by yearlings and found that TSR of new-settlers in a given colony and year was negatively predicted by TSR of returning, early arriving older individuals in that year, but not by overall TSR at the colony in the previous year. This suggests that in our male-biased population new-settler males respond to local TSR upon arrival to choose the sites with larger breeding opportunities. Hence, variation in ecological conditions as reflected by adult survival can shift the TSR of individuals recruiting into a local population, with potentially various demographic consequences. However, breeding site choice based on TSR tends to homogenize TSR at a population level likely by facilitating settling of dispersing males in colonies with less male

  19. The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

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    Thomas C. Marcin

    1974-01-01

    Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

  20. Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Oberhauser, Karen; Drum, Ryan G.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Altizer, Sonia; Taylor, Orley R.; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Darius J.; Semmens, Brice X.; Erickson, Richard A.; Libby, Kaitlin; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

    2017-01-01

    The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

  1. Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution....... We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs...... at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient...

  2. Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Souchay

    Full Text Available Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960-2010 of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY and older birds (after first-year; AFY originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity. Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions.

  3. Local extirpations and regional declines of endemic upper beach invertebrates in southern California

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    Hubbard, D. M.; Dugan, J. E.; Schooler, N. K.; Viola, S. M.

    2014-10-01

    Along the world's highly valued and populous coastlines, the upper intertidal zones of sandy beach ecosystems and the biodiversity that these zones support are increasingly threatened by impacts of human activities, coastal development, erosion, and climate change. The upper zones of beaches typically support invertebrates with restricted distributions and dispersal, making them particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesized that disproportionate loss or degradation of these zones in the last century has resulted in declines of upper shore macroinvertebrates in southern California. We identified a suite of potentially vulnerable endemic upper beach invertebrates with direct development, low dispersal and late reproduction. Based on the availability of printed sources and museum specimens, we investigated historical changes in distribution and abundance of two intertidal isopod species (Tylos punctatus, Alloniscus perconvexus) in southern California. Populations of these isopods have been extirpated at numerous historically occupied sites: T. punctatus from 16 sites (57% decrease), and A. perconvexus from 14 sites (64% decrease). During the same period, we found evidence of only five colonization events. In addition, the northern range limit of the southern species, T. punctatus, moved south by 31 km (8% of range on California mainland) since 1971. Abundances of T. punctatus have declined on the mainland coast; only three recently sampled populations had abundances >7000 individuals m-1. For A. perconvexus populations, abundances >100 individuals m-1 now appear to be limited to the northern part of the study area. Our results show that numerous local extirpations of isopod populations have resulted in regional declines and in greatly reduced population connectivity in several major littoral cells of southern California. Two of the six major littoral cells (Santa Barbara and Zuma) in the area currently support 74% of the remaining isopod

  4. Coral reef degradation is not correlated with local human population density

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    Bruno, John F.; Valdivia, Abel

    2016-07-01

    The global decline of reef-building corals is understood to be due to a combination of local and global stressors. However, many reef scientists assume that local factors predominate and that isolated reefs, far from human activities, are generally healthier and more resilient. Here we show that coral reef degradation is not correlated with human population density. This suggests that local factors such as fishing and pollution are having minimal effects or that their impacts are masked by global drivers such as ocean warming. Our results also suggest that the effects of local and global stressors are antagonistic, rather than synergistic as widely assumed. These findings indicate that local management alone cannot restore coral populations or increase the resilience of reefs to large-scale impacts. They also highlight the truly global reach of anthropogenic warming and the immediate need for drastic and sustained cuts in carbon emissions.

  5. Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Veblen, Thomas T; Smith, Jeremy M.; Kueppers, Lara M.

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers.Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

  6. Population demographics of two local South Carolina mourning dove populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, D.P.; Otis, D.L.

    1998-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) call-count index had a significant (P 2,300 doves and examined >6,000 individuals during harvest bag checks. An age-specific band recovery model with time- and area-specific recovery rates, and constant survival rates, was chosen for estimation via Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), likelihood ratio, and goodness-of-fit criteria. After-hatching-year (AHY) annual survival rate was 0.359 (SE = 0.056), and hatching-year (HY) annual survival rate was 0.118 (SE = 0.042). Average estimated recruitment per adult female into the prehunting season population was 3.40 (SE = 1.25) and 2.32 (SE = 0.46) for the 2 study areas. Our movement data support earlier hypotheses of nonmigratory breeding and harvested populations in South Carolina. Low survival rates and estimated population growth rate in the study areas may be representative only of small-scale areas that are heavily managed for dove hunting. Source-sink theory was used to develop a model of region-wide populations that is composed of source areas with positive growth rates and sink areas of declining growth. We suggest management of mourning doves in the Southeast might benefit from improved understanding of local population dynamics, as opposed to regional-scale population demographics.

  7. Pesticides and Population Declines of California Alpine Frogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured ...

  8. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  9. CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL POPULATION DECLINE FOR PRIMARY SCHOOLS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haartsen, Tialda; Van Wissen, Leo

    During the past few years, the Dutch education system has been confronted with a sharp decline in the number of pupils. Especially in rural villages, inhabitants fear for the closure of their local primary school, which is perceived as a very negative development for local village life. This paper

  10. Population Genetic Aspects of Pollinator Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Packer

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available We reviewed the theory of conservation genetics, with special emphasis on the influence of haplodiploidy and other aspects of bee biology upon conservation genetic parameters. We then investigated the possibility that pollinator decline can be addressed in this way, using two meta-analytical approaches on genetic data from the Hymenoptera and the Lepidoptera. First, we compared levels of heterozygosity between the orders. As has been found previously, the haplodiploid Hymenoptera had markedly lower levels of genetic variation than the Lepidoptera. Bees had even lower levels, and bumble bees, in particular, often seemed almost monomorphic genetically. However, the statistically confounding effects of phylogeny render detailed interpretation of such data difficult. Second, we investigated patterns of gene flow among populations of these insects. Hymenoptera were far more likely to show genetic effects of population fragmentation than are Lepidoptera, even at similar geographic distances between populations. The reduced effective population sizes resulting from haplodiploidy probably contributed to this result. The proportion of species with low levels of gene flow did not vary among the different taxonomic groups within the Hymenoptera.

  11. Declines revisited: Long-term recovery and spatial population dynamics oftailed frog larvae after wildfire

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    Hossack, Blake R.; Honeycutt, Richard

    2017-01-01

    Drought has fueled an increased frequency and severity of large wildfires in many ecosystems. Despite an increase in research on wildfire effects on vertebrates, the vast majority of it has focused on short-term (effects and there is still little information on the time scale of population recovery for species that decline in abundance after fire. In 2003, a large wildfire in Montana (USA) burned the watersheds of four of eight streams that we sampled for larval Rocky Mountain tailed frogs (Ascaphus montanus) in 2001. Surveys during 2004–2005 revealed reduced abundance of larvae in burned streams relative to unburned streams, with greater declines associated with increased fire extent. Rocky Mountain tailed frogs have low vagility and have several unusual life-history traits that could slow population recovery, including an extended larval period (4 years), delayed sexual maturity (6–8 years), and low fecundity (negative effects of burn extent on larval abundance weakened> 58% within 12 years after the fire. We also found moderate synchrony among populations in unburned streams and negative spatial autocorrelation among populations in burned streams. We suspect negative spatial autocorrelation among spatially-clustered burned streams reflected increased post-fire patchiness in resources and different rates of local recovery. Our results add to a growing body of work that suggests populations in intact ecosystems tend to be resilient to habitat changes caused by wildfire. Our results also provide important insights into recovery times of populations that have been negatively affected by severe wildfire.

  12. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  13. Climate change and pollution speed declines in zebrafish populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, A Ross; Owen, Stewart F; Peters, James; Zhang, Yong; Soffker, Marta; Paull, Gregory C; Hosken, David J; Wahab, M Abdul; Tyler, Charles R

    2015-03-17

    Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are potent environmental contaminants, and their effects on wildlife populations could be exacerbated by climate change, especially in species with environmental sex determination. Endangered species may be particularly at risk because inbreeding depression and stochastic fluctuations in male and female numbers are often observed in the small populations that typify these taxa. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of water temperature and EDC exposure on sexual development and population viability of inbred and outbred zebrafish (Danio rerio). Water temperatures adopted were 28 °C (current ambient mean spawning temperature) and 33 °C (projected for the year 2100). The EDC selected was clotrimazole (at 2 μg/L and 10 μg/L), a widely used antifungal chemical that inhibits a key steroidogenic enzyme [cytochrome P450(CYP19) aromatase] required for estrogen synthesis in vertebrates. Elevated water temperature and clotrimazole exposure independently induced male-skewed sex ratios, and the effects of clotrimazole were greater at the higher temperature. Male sex ratio skews also occurred for the lower clotrimazole exposure concentration at the higher water temperature in inbred fish but not in outbred fish. Population viability analysis showed that population growth rates declined sharply in response to male skews and declines for inbred populations occurred at lower male skews than for outbred populations. These results indicate that elevated temperature associated with climate change can amplify the effects of EDCs and these effects are likely to be most acute in small, inbred populations exhibiting environmental sex determination and/or differentiation.

  14. Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming.

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    Melia T DeVivo

    Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus, Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni, and moose (Alces alces shirasi in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ. Mule deer were captured from 2010-2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

  15. Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVivo, Melia T.; Edmunds, David R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant A.; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J.; Richards, Bryan J.; Schatzl, Hermann M.; Cornish, Todd

    2017-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ= 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

  16. Trapped in the extinction vortex? Strong genetic effects in a declining vertebrate population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larsson Mikael

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity are expected to increase the extinction risk of small populations, but detailed tests in natural populations are scarce. We combine long-term population and fitness data with those from two types of molecular markers to examine the role of genetic effects in a declining metapopulation of southern dunlins Calidris alpina schinzii, an endangered shorebird. Results The decline is associated with increased pairings between related individuals, including close inbreeding (as revealed by both field observations of parentage and molecular markers. Furthermore, reduced genetic diversity seems to affect individual fitness at several life stages. Higher genetic similarity between mates correlates negatively with the pair's hatching success. Moreover, offspring produced by related parents are more homozygous and suffer from increased mortality during embryonic development and possibly also after hatching. Conclusions Our results demonstrate strong genetic effects in a rapidly declining population, emphasizing the importance of genetic factors for the persistence of small populations.

  17. HIV decline associated with changes in risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal: analysis of population-based HIV prevalence surveys between 2001 and 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deuba, Keshab; Ekström, Anna Mia; Tomson, Göran; Shrestha, Rachana; Marrone, Gaetano

    2017-08-01

    We assessed changes in HIV prevalence and risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal. A total of 7505 participants (aged 16-24 years) from key populations who were at increased risk of HIV infection (2767 people who inject drugs (PWID); 852 men who have sex with men/transgender (MSM/TG); 2851 female sex workers (FSW) and 1035 male labour migrants) were recruited randomly over a 12-year period, 2001-2012. Local epidemic zones of Nepal (Kathmandu valley, Pokhara valley, Terai Highway and West to Far West hills) were analysed separately. We found a very strong and consistent decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade in different epidemic zones among PWID and MSM/TG in Kathmandu, the capital city, most likely due to a parallel increase in safe needle and syringe use and increased condom use. A decrease in HIV prevalence in 22 Terai highway districts, sharing an open border with India, was also consistent with increased condom use among FSW. Among male labour migrants, HIV prevalence was low throughout the period in the West to Far West hilly regions. Condom use by migrant workers involved with FSW abroad increased while their condom use with Nepalese FSW declined. Other risk determinants such as mean age at starting first injection, injection frequency, place of commercial sex solicitation, their mean age when leaving to work abroad did not change consistently across epidemic zones among the young key populations under study. In Nepal, the decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade was remarkably significant and consistent with an increase in condom use and safer use of clean needles and syringes. However, diverging trends in risk behaviours across local epidemic zones of Nepal suggest a varying degree of implementation of national HIV prevention policies. This calls for continued preventive efforts as well as surveillance to sustain the observed downward trend.

  18. Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Anderson, Kurt E; Regan, Tracey J; Regan, Helen M

    2018-01-22

    The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age-structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates

  19. Life history, population viability, and the potential for local adaptation in isolated trout populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.J. Carim

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Habitat loss and fragmentation have caused population decline across taxa through impacts on life history diversity, dispersal patterns, and gene flow. Yet, intentional isolation of native fish populations is a frequently used management strategy to protect against negative interactions with invasive fish species. We evaluated the population viability and genetic diversity of 12 isolated populations of Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi located on the Flathead Indian Reservation in Montana, USA. Length-structured integral projection models (IPMs were used to project population growth rate (lambda and its sensitivity to underlying vital rates and parameters. We examined relationships between lambda, genetic diversity, and habitat size and quality. Lambda ranged from 0.68 to 1.1 with 10 of 12 populations projected to be in decline. A sensitivity analysis of lambda with respect to projection matrix elements indicated that lambda was generally sensitive to changes in early life history stages (survival/growth, but patterns differed among populations. Another sensitivity analysis with respect to underlying model parameters showed highly consistent pattern across populations, with lambda being most sensitive to the slope of probability of maturity (estimated from published literature, generally followed by adult survival, and the slope of somatic growth rate (directly measured from each population. Lambda was not correlated with genetic diversity. For populations residing in small isolated streams (≤5 km of occupied habitat, lambda significantly increased with base flow discharge (r2=0.50, p<0.02. Our results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation for persistence of small, isolated populations. Specifically we saw evidence for higher probability of maturity at smaller sizes in the smallest, coldest isolated systems, increasing probability of persistence for these populations. Climate change threatens to further fragment populations of

  20. Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

    2018-04-01

    The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  1. Identifying causes for population decline of the brown hare in agricultural landscapes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Trine-Lee Wincentz

    In recent decades the brown hare (Lepus europaeus) population in Denmark has undergone a substantial decline, but proximate causes are unknown and little is known about actual densities. In this thesis, hare populations are investigated with respect to age composition and reproductive parameters...... proportions in game bags have dropped significantly since the 1950ies. Simple matrix population models with variable juvenile recruitment predict the similar population growth rates as actually observed in the annual bag records. The model substantiates the supposition that declines in the Danish hare...

  2. Sixty years of anthropogenic pressure: a spatio-temporal genetic analysis of brown trout populations subject to stocking and population declines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Møller; Fraser, Dylan J.; Meier, Kristian

    2009-01-01

    Analyses of historical samples can provide invaluable information on changes to the genetic composition of natural populations resulting from human activities. Here, we analyse 21 microsatellite loci in historical (archived scales from 1927 to 1956) and contemporary samples of brown trout (Salmo...... trutta) from six neighbouring rivers in Denmark, to compare the genetic structure of wild populations before and after population declines and stocking with nonlocal strains of hatchery trout. We show that all populations have been strongly affected by stocking, with admixture proportions ranging from 14...... differences among populations in hatchery trout admixture proportions. Despite significant changes to the genetic composition within populations over time, dispersal rates among populations were roughly similar before and after stocking. We also assessed whether population declines or introgression...

  3. Long-term effective population sizes, temporal stability of genetic composition and potential for local adaptation in anadromous brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Møller; Ruzzante, D.E.; Eg Nielsen, Einar

    2002-01-01

    temporal samples from the same populations than among samples from different populations. Estimates of N-e, using a likelihood-based implementation of the temporal method, revealed N-e greater than or equal to 500 in two of three populations for which we have historical data. A third population in a small...... (3 km) river showed Ne greater than or equal to 300. Assuming a stepping-stone model of gene flow we considered the relative roles of gene flow, random genetic drift and selection to assess the possibilities for local adaptation. The requirements for local adaptation were fulfilled, but only...... adaptations resulting from strong selection were expected to occur at the level of individual populations. Adaptations resulting from weak selection were more likely to occur on a regional basis, i.e. encompassing several populations. N-e appears to have declined recently in at least one of the studied...

  4. Activity patterns and time budgets of the declining sea otter population at Amchitka Island, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelatt, Thomas S.; Siniff, Donald B.; Estes, James A.

    2002-01-01

    Time budgets of predators may reflect population status if time spent foraging varies with local prey abun- dance. We assumed that the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population at Amchitka Island, Alaska, USA, had been at equilibrium since the early 1960s and collected time budgets of otters to be used to represent future conditions of currently expanding sea otter populations. We used radiotelemetry to monitor activity-time budgets of otters from August 1992 to March 1994. Sea otter activity was directly linked to sex, age, weather condition, season, and time of day. Sea otters differed in percent time foraging among cohorts but not within cohorts. Percent time foraging ranged from 21% for females with very young (≤ 3weeks of age) dependent pups to 52% for females with old (≥10 weeks of age) pups. Otters foraged more and hauled out more as local sea conditions worsened. Adult males spent less time foraging during winter and spring, consistent with seasonal changes in prey selection. Time spent for- aging was similar to that reported for otters in California and an established population in Prince William Sound, Alaska, but greater than that of otters in recently established populations in Oregon and Alaska. Despite current evidence indicating that the population was in decline during our study, we were unable to recognize this change using time budgets. Our results illustrate the importance of stratifying analyses of activity patterns by age and sex cohorts and the complexity inherent in comparisons of behavioral data between different populations relying on distinct prey bases.

  5. ALIEN SPECIES: THEIR ROLE IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES AND RESTORATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alien species (also referred to as exotic, invasive, introduced, or normative species) have been implicated as causal agents in population declines of many amphibian species. Herein, we evaluate the relative contributions of alien species and other factors in adversely affecting ...

  6. Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Steven M; Alvarado, Gilbert; Abarca, Juan; Zumbado, Hector; Zuñiga, Ibrahim; Wainwright, Mark; Kerby, Jacob

    2017-09-20

    Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

  7. Is Declining malaria vector population in Africa a result of intervention Measures or sampling tools inefficiency?

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    Eliningaya Kweka

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent entomological surveys have shown a declining trend of malaria vector population in sub-Saharan Africa and the observation have beenassociated with the scale-up and intensive use of malaria intervention measures such as insecticides treated nets and insecticide residual sprays.However, little is known on the contribution of the mosquito sampling tools inefficiency on the declining trends of malaria vector population. Inthis commentary paper, we explore the possibility of contribution of mosquito sampling tools’ inefficiency to the observed declining trends ofmalaria vector population in Africa.

  8. Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

    2009-09-01

    Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

  9. Population recovery following decline in an endangered stream-breeding frog (Mixophyes fleayi from subtropical Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Alan Newell

    Full Text Available Amphibians have undergone dramatic declines and extinctions worldwide. Prominent among these have been the stream-breeding frogs in the rainforests of eastern Australia. The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd has been postulated as the primary cause of these declines. We conducted a capture-mark-recapture study over a 7-year period on the endangered Fleay's barred frog (Mixophyes fleayi at two independent streams (30 km apart in order to assess the stability of these populations. This species had undergone a severe decline across its narrow geographic range. Mark-recapture modelling showed that the number of individuals increased 3-10 fold along stream transects over this period. Frog detection probabilities were frequently above 50% but declined as the populations increased. Adult survival was important to overall population persistence in light of low recruitment events, suggesting that longevity may be a key factor in this recovery. One male and female were present in the capture record for >6 years. This study provides an unambiguous example of population recovery in the presence of Bd.

  10. Glutathione S-transferase genotypes modify lung function decline in the general population: SAPALDIA cohort study

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    Ackermann-Liebrich Ursula

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the environmental and genetic risk factors of accelerated lung function decline in the general population is a first step in a prevention strategy against the worldwide increasing respiratory pathology of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. Deficiency in antioxidative and detoxifying Glutathione S-transferase (GST gene has been associated with poorer lung function in children, smokers and patients with respiratory diseases. In the present study, we assessed whether low activity variants in GST genes are also associated with accelerated lung function decline in the general adult population. Methods We examined with multiple regression analysis the association of polymorphisms in GSTM1, GSTT1 and GSTP1 genes with annual decline in FEV1, FVC, and FEF25–75 during 11 years of follow-up in 4686 subjects of the prospective SAPALDIA cohort representative of the Swiss general population. Effect modification by smoking, gender, bronchial hyperresponisveness and age was studied. Results The associations of GST genotypes with FEV1, FVC, and FEF25–75 were comparable in direction, but most consistent for FEV1. GSTT1 homozygous gene deletion alone or in combination with GSTM1 homozygous gene deletion was associated with excess decline in FEV1 in men, but not women, irrespective of smoking status. The additional mean annual decline in FEV1 in men with GSTT1 and concurrent GSTM1 gene deletion was -8.3 ml/yr (95% confidence interval: -12.6 to -3.9 relative to men without these gene deletions. The GSTT1 effect on the FEV1 decline comparable to the observed difference in FEV1 decline between never and persistent smoking men. Effect modification by gender was statistically significant. Conclusion Our results suggest that genetic GSTT1 deficiency is a prevalent and strong determinant of accelerated lung function decline in the male general population.

  11. Population decline in the Delta caribou herd with reference to other Alaskan herds

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    Patrick Valkenburg et al.

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available After growing continuously for nearly 15 years, the Delta caribou herd began to decline in 1989. Most other Interior Alaskan herds also began declining. In the Delta herd, and in other herds, the declines were caused primarily by high summer mortality of calves and increased natural mortality of adult females. Other minor causes included increased winter mortality of calves, and reduced parturition rates of 3-year-old and older females. The decline in the Delta herd also coincided with increased wolf (Canis lupus numbers, winters with deeper than normal snow, and warm summers. Mean body weight of annual samples of 10-month-old female calves was consistently low during the decline. Except in some of the smallest Interior Alaskan herds, we conclude that evidence for population regulation in Alaskan caribou is weak, and that herds are likely to fluctuate within a wide range of densities due to complex interactions of predation and weather. Unless wolf numbers are influenced by man, the size of a caribou herd in a given year is likely to be largely a function of its size during the previous population low and the number of years of favorable weather in the interim.

  12. The use of population viability analysis to identify possible factors contributing to the decline of a rare ungulate population in south-eastern Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D. Capon

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Populations that are vulnerable to decline are of particular concern to wildlife managers and uncovering the mechanisms responsible for downward trends is a crucial step towards developing future viable populations. The aims of this study were to better understand the mechanisms behind the historic decline of the sable antelope, Hippotragus niger, population at the Malilangwe Wildlife Reserve (MWR, to assess its future viability and to use this analysis to determine key areas of breakdown in population growth and link these to potential limiting factors. VORTEX, a population viability model was used to assess the future viability of the sable antelope population and a sensitivity analysis was applied to identify the key areas of breakdown in growth. The sable population is currently viable, but remains highly vulnerable to changes in adult female survival, a factor which had the greatest influence on overall population fitness. Lion predation, impacting on the adult segment of the population, appeared to be the main factor responsible for the historic decline at the MWR.Conservation implications: Sable generally occur at low densities in the lowveld region of Zimbabwe and, as such, populations are vulnerable to increases in mortality rates. The role of lions in driving the decline at the MWR suggests a need to control their numbers and develop prey refuges through improved management of artificial water.

  13. Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

    2007-12-04

    Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

  14. The Role of Responses to Experiences of Rural Population Decline in the Social Capital of Families

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elshof, Hans; Bailey, Ajay

    2015-01-01

    Population decline in rural areas has an impact on rural villages. This research investigates to what extent families with children in rural villages experience consequences of population decline, in which ways they respond to these experiences, and how that plays a role in their individual social

  15. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W; Packer, Craig

    2015-12-01

    We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded ∼ 500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.

  16. Genetic structure and evidence for recent population decline in Eurasian otter populations in the Czech and Slovak Republics: implications for conservation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hájková, P.; Pertoldi, C.; Ukendt, Zemanová

    2007-01-01

    Over the latter part of the 20th century, Eurasian otter Lutra lutra populations suffered dramatic declines, resulting in extinction or fragmentation of populations in many western and central European countries. Part of the Czech otter population became totally isolated while the Slovak populati...... that they remain a strongly protected species in both countries. The spreading and re-connection of otter populations observed recently is essential for the future health of the populations, and should be supported through habitat conservation......., suggesting that the strongest decline probably occurred between the 1970s and the mid-1990s. The results of this study confirm that otter populations remain vulnerable to any violent demographic change and, despite the claims of fish-farmers and anglers for legal culls, it is highly desirable...

  17. Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in breeding success in a declining population of migratory swans.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wood, K.A.; Newth, J.L.; Hilton, G.M.; Nolet, B.A.; Rees, E.C.

    2016-01-01

    Population declines among migratory Arctic-breeding birds are a growing concern for conservationists. To inform the conservation of these declining populations, we need to understand how demographic rates such as breeding success are influenced by combinations of extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In

  18. Does climate change explain the decline of a trans-Saharan Afro-Palaearctic migrant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce-Higgins, J W; Yalden, D W; Dougall, T W; Beale, C M

    2009-03-01

    There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated

  19. EU protected area network did not prevent a country wide population decline in a threatened grassland bird

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João P. Silva

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of the Protected Area networks on the conservation status of target species. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the Portuguese Natura 2000 (the European Union network of protected areas in maintaining a species included in the Annex I of the Bird Directive, namely the population of a priority farmland bird, the little bustard Tetrax tetrax. Methods We measured the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 by comparing population trends across time (2003–2006 and 2016 in 51 areas, 21 of which within 12 Special Protection Areas (SPA that were mostly designated for farmland bird conservation and another 30 areas without EU protection. Results Overall, the national population is estimated to have declined 49% over the last 10–14 years. This loss was found to be proportionally larger outside SPA (64% decline compared to losses within SPA (25% decline. However, the absolute male density decline was significantly larger within SPA . Discussion In spite of holding higher population densities and having prevented habitat loss, we conclude that Natura 2000 was not effective in buffering against the overall bustard population decline. Results show that the mere designation of SPA in farmland is not enough to secure species populations and has to be combined with agricultural policies and investment to maintain not only habitat availability but also habitat quality.

  20. EU protected area network did not prevent a country wide population decline in a threatened grassland bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, João P; Correia, Ricardo; Alonso, Hany; Martins, Ricardo C; D'Amico, Marcello; Delgado, Ana; Sampaio, Hugo; Godinho, Carlos; Moreira, Francisco

    2018-01-01

    Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of the Protected Area networks on the conservation status of target species. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the Portuguese Natura 2000 (the European Union network of protected areas) in maintaining a species included in the Annex I of the Bird Directive, namely the population of a priority farmland bird, the little bustard Tetrax tetrax . We measured the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 by comparing population trends across time (2003-2006 and 2016) in 51 areas, 21 of which within 12 Special Protection Areas (SPA) that were mostly designated for farmland bird conservation and another 30 areas without EU protection. Overall, the national population is estimated to have declined 49% over the last 10-14 years. This loss was found to be proportionally larger outside SPA (64% decline) compared to losses within SPA (25% decline). However, the absolute male density decline was significantly larger within SPA . In spite of holding higher population densities and having prevented habitat loss, we conclude that Natura 2000 was not effective in buffering against the overall bustard population decline. Results show that the mere designation of SPA in farmland is not enough to secure species populations and has to be combined with agricultural policies and investment to maintain not only habitat availability but also habitat quality.

  1. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R.; Taylor, Andrew D.; Robichaux, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

  2. Predatory leeches (Hirudinida) may contribute to amphibian declines in the Lassen, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stead Jonathan; Karen Pope

    2010-01-01

    Researchers have documented precipitous declines in Cascades Frog (Rana cascadae) populations in the southern portion of the species' range, in the Lassen region of California. Reasons for the declines, however, have not been elucidated. In addition to common, widespread causes, an understanding of local community interactions may be necessary...

  3. Quantitative evidence for the effects of multiple drivers on continental-scale amphibian declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Miller, David A. W.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Adams, Michael J.; Amburgey, Staci M.; Chambert, Thierry A.; Cruickshank, Sam S.; Fisher, Robert N.; Green, David M.; Hossack, Blake R.; Johnson, Pieter T.J.; Joseph, Maxwell B.; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Ryan, Maureen E.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Walls, Susan C.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Fellers, Gary M.; Gorman, Thomas A.; Ray, Andrew M.; Pilliod, David S.; Price, Steven J.; Saenz, Daniel; Sadinski, Walt; Muths, Erin L.

    2016-01-01

    Since amphibian declines were first proposed as a global phenomenon over a quarter century ago, the conservation community has made little progress in halting or reversing these trends. The early search for a “smoking gun” was replaced with the expectation that declines are caused by multiple drivers. While field observations and experiments have identified factors leading to increased local extinction risk, evidence for effects of these drivers is lacking at large spatial scales. Here, we use observations of 389 time-series of 83 species and complexes from 61 study areas across North America to test the effects of 4 of the major hypothesized drivers of declines. While we find that local amphibian populations are being lost from metapopulations at an average rate of 3.79% per year, these declines are not related to any particular threat at the continental scale; likewise the effect of each stressor is variable at regional scales. This result - that exposure to threats varies spatially, and populations vary in their response - provides little generality in the development of conservation strategies. Greater emphasis on local solutions to this globally shared phenomenon is needed.

  4. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krushelnycky, Paul D; Loope, Lloyd L; Giambelluca, Thomas W; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R; Taylor, Andrew D; Robichaux, Robert H

    2013-03-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai'i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1-2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  5. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

    2015-04-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  6. Life history, population viability, and the potential for local adaptation in isolated trout populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. J. Carim; Y. Vindenes; L. A. Eby; C. Barfoot; L. A. Vollestad

    2017-01-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation have caused population decline across taxa through impacts on life history diversity, dispersal patterns, and gene flow. Yet, intentional isolation of native fish populations is a frequently used management strategy to protect against negative interactions with invasive fish species. We evaluated the population viability and genetic...

  7. Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

    2004-01-01

    Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

  8. Using latent selection difference to model persistence in a declining population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mara E Erickson

    Full Text Available Population persistence is a direct measure of the viability of a population. Monitoring the distribution of declining populations or subpopulations over time can yield estimates of persistence, which we show can be modeled as a latent selection difference (LSD contrasting attributes of sites where populations have persisted versus those that have not. Predicted persistence can be modeled with predictor covariates to identify factors correlated with species persistence. We demonstrate how to model persistence based on changes in occupancy that can include adjustments for detection probability. Using a known historical distribution of the western grebe (Aechmophorus occidentalis, we adapted methods originally developed for occupancy modeling to evaluate how environmental covariates including emergent vegetation and human developments have affected western grebe persistence in Alberta. The relative probability of persistence was correlated with the extent of shoreline bulrush (Scirpus lacustris, which is important vegetation for nesting cover. We also documented that western grebe populations were less likely to persist on lakes in the boreal forest, primarily located on the northern boundary of the species' range. Factors influencing occupancy were different than those determining persistence by western grebes; persistence and occupancy were not correlated. Persistence was more likely on lakes with recreational development, reflecting reliance by grebes on the larger, fish-bearing waterbodies that also are attractive for lakeshore development. Unfortunately, the correlation with recreational development on Alberta's lakes puts grebes at risk for loss of brood-rearing habitats--primary threats to altricial birds--if steps are not taken to prevent disturbance to bulrush stands. Identifying factors related to the persistence of a species--especially one in decline--is a fundamental step in conservation management.

  9. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  10. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  11. A Demographic Model to Evaluate Population Declines in the Endangered Streaked Horned Lark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alaine F. Camfield

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The Streaked Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris strigata is listed as endangered by the State of Washington, USA and by Canada under the Species at Risk Act and is also classified as a federal candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act in the USA. A substantial portion of Streaked Horned Lark habitat has been lost or degraded, and range contraction has occurred in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We estimate the vital rates (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival and population growth rate (λ for Streaked Horned Larks breeding in Washington, USA and conduct a Life-Stage Simulation Analysis (LSA to evaluate which vital rate has the greatest influence on λ. We simulated changes in the three vital rates to examine how much they would need to be adjusted either independently or in concert to achieve a stable Streaked Horned Lark population (λ = 1. We also evaluated which fecundity component (the number of fledglings per egg laid or renesting interval had the greatest impact on λ. The estimate of population growth suggests that Streaked Horned Larks in Washington are declining rapidly (λ = 0.62 ± 0.10 and that local breeding sites are not sustainable without immigration. The LSA results indicate that adult survival had the greatest influence on λ, followed by juvenile survival and fecundity. However, increases in vital rates led to λ = 1 only when adult survival was raised from 0.47 to 0.85, juvenile survival from 0.17 to 0.58, and fecundity from 0.91 to 3.09. Increases in breeding success and decreases in the renesting interval influenced λ similarly; however, λ did not reach 1 even when breeding success was raised to 100% or renesting intervals were reduced to 1 day. Only when all three vital rates were increased simultaneously did λ approach 1 without requiring highly unrealistic increases in each vital rate. We conclude that conservation activities need to target all or multiple vital rates to be successful. The

  12. Ocean-wide Drivers of Migration Strategies and Their Influence on Population Breeding Performance in a Declining Seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayet, Annette L; Freeman, Robin; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Diamond, Antony; Erikstad, Kjell E; Fifield, Dave; Fitzsimmons, Michelle G; Hansen, Erpur S; Harris, Mike P; Jessopp, Mark; Kouwenberg, Amy-Lee; Kress, Steve; Mowat, Stephen; Perrins, Chris M; Petersen, Aevar; Petersen, Ib K; Reiertsen, Tone K; Robertson, Gregory J; Shannon, Paula; Sigurðsson, Ingvar A; Shoji, Akiko; Wanless, Sarah; Guilford, Tim

    2017-12-18

    Which factors shape animals' migration movements across large geographical scales, how different migratory strategies emerge between populations, and how these may affect population dynamics are central questions in the field of animal migration [1] that only large-scale studies of migration patterns across a species' range can answer [2]. To address these questions, we track the migration of 270 Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica, a red-listed, declining seabird, across their entire breeding range. We investigate the role of demographic, geographical, and environmental variables in driving spatial and behavioral differences on an ocean-basin scale by measuring puffins' among-colony differences in migratory routes and day-to-day behavior (estimated with individual daily activity budgets and energy expenditure). We show that competition and local winter resource availability are important drivers of migratory movements, with birds from larger colonies or with poorer local winter conditions migrating further and visiting less-productive waters; this in turn led to differences in flight activity and energy expenditure. Other behavioral differences emerge with latitude, with foraging effort and energy expenditure increasing when birds winter further north in colder waters. Importantly, these ocean-wide migration patterns can ultimately be linked with breeding performance: colony productivity is negatively associated with wintering latitude, population size, and migration distance, which demonstrates the cost of competition and migration on future breeding and the link between non-breeding and breeding periods. Our results help us to understand the drivers of animal migration and have important implications for population dynamics and the conservation of migratory species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas

    OpenAIRE

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Macdonald, David W.; Packer, Craig

    2015-01-01

    At a regional scale, lion populations in West, Central, and East Africa are likely to suffer a projected 50% decline over the next two decades, whereas lion populations are only increasing in southern Africa. Many lion populations are either now gone or expected to disappear within the next few decades to the extent that the intensively managed populations in southern Africa may soon supersede the iconic savannah landscapes in East Africa as the most successful sites for lion conservation. Th...

  14. Waist Circumference, Not Body Mass Index, Is Associated with Renal Function Decline in Korean Population: Hallym Aging Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Hyunju; Quan, Shan Ai; Jeong, Jin-Young; Jang, Soong-Nang; Lee, Jung Eun; Kim, Dong-Hyun

    2013-01-01

    Background Prospective investigation of obesity and renal function decline in Asia is sparse. We examined the associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with renal function decline in a prospective study of Korean population. Methods A total of 454 participants who had baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) levels of more than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in Hallym Aging Study (HAS) were included and followed for 6 years. Renal function decline was defined as follows: (1) an eGFR decline ≥3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (n = 82 cases); (2) an eGFR decrease of 20% or greater (n = 87 cases) at follow-up; (3) an eGFR decrease of 20% greater at follow-up or eGFR decline ≥3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (n = 91 cases); and (4) an eGFR 95 cm in men or >90 cm in women with ≤90 cm in men or ≤85 cm in women, ORs (95% CIs) ranged from 2.31 (1.14–4.69) to 2.78 (1.19–6.50) for the 4 definitions of renal function decline (all p-values for trend Korean population. Our results provide important evidence that simple measurement of central fat deposition rather than BMI could predict decline in renal function in Korean population. PMID:23536858

  15. Thyroid Antibodies, Autoimmunity and Cognitive Decline: Is There a Population-Based Link

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate Napthali

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Autoimmunity is considered an uncommon but under-recognised cause of cognitive decline. Methods: Serum samples from 3,253 randomly selected subjects enrolled in the Hunter Community Study, aged 55-85 years, were assayed for thyrotropin stimulatory hormone, anti-thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPO-Ab, anti-nuclear antibodies (ANA and extractable nuclear antigens (ENA. Cognitive function was assessed using the Audio Recorded Cognitive Screen (ARCS tool. Results: TPO-Ab were found in 8.4% and ANA in 27.9% of the study population, of whom 3% had positive ENA findings. No relationship was found between the ARCS score and either TPO-Ab (coefficient = 0.133; 95% CI -0.20, 0.82, p = 0.616, ANA at a low (coefficient = 1.01; 95% CI -2.58, 0.55, p = 0.203 or a high titre (coefficient = -0.65; 95% CI -2.59, 1.28, p = 0.508, or ENA antibodies (coefficient = 5.12; 95% CI -0.53, 10.77; p = 0.076. Conclusions: Autoantibody findings are common in an aging population and are not associated with cognitive decline.

  16. Attributing mortality among drivers of population decline in Acropora palmata in the Florida Keys (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, D. E.; Miller, M. W.

    2012-06-01

    Acropora palmata populations have experienced steep declines over the past 30 years. Although numerous culprits are recognized, their relative contributions to the decline are poorly quantified, making it difficult to prioritize effective conservation measures. In 2004, a demographic monitoring program was implemented in the Florida Keys (USA), aimed at determining the relative importance of various stressors affecting A. palmata. A subset of randomly selected A. palmata colonies within 15 fore-reef plots was tagged and surveyed three to four times per year over 7 years. Colony size, live tissue, prevalence of disease, snail ( Coralliophila abbreviata) predation, physical damage and other conditions were assessed at each survey. The estimated effect of each condition causing recent mortality was ranked, and together, these parameters were used to attribute the population-level tissue loss associated with each condition. In addition, all new colonies in the study plots were counted and assessed annually in order to track trends in total colony count and live tissue abundance. Between 2004 and 2010, the study population has shown more than 50% decline in live area from three main conditions: fragmentation, disease and snail predation. Approximately half of this decline occurred during the catastrophic 2005 hurricane season from which recovery has been minimal. Meanwhile, colony abundance has shown gradual decline throughout the study. Snail predation was the most prevalent condition. However, it ranked third in attributed tissue loss, behind breakage that occurred during the 2005 hurricane season, and disease. Thermal bleaching of A. palmata was not observed during this study. Because mortality continues to outpace recruitment and growth, intervention to ameliorate losses to the more manageable threats including predation and breakage could result in substantial conservation of live tissue, buying time for the abatement of less tractable threats to A. palmata

  17. Projected risk of population declines for native fish species in the Upper Mississippi River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, S.M.; Boma, P.; Thogmartin, W.E.

    2015-01-01

    Conservationists are in need of objective metrics for prioritizing the management of habitats. For individual species, the threat of extinction is often used to prioritize what species are in need of conservation action. Using long-term monitoring data, we applied a Bayesian diffusion approximation to estimate quasi-extinction risk for 54 native fish species within six commercial navigation reaches along a 1350-km gradient of the upper Mississippi River system. We found a strong negative linear relationship between quasi-extinction risk and distance upstream. For some species, quasi-extinction estimates ranged from nearly zero in some reaches to one in others, suggesting substantial variability in threats facing individual river reaches. We found no evidence that species traits affected quasi-extinction risk across the entire system. Our results indicate that fishes within the upper Mississippi River system face localized threats that vary across river impact gradients. This suggests that conservation actions should be focused on local habitat scales but should also consider the additive effects on downstream conditions. We also emphasize the need for identification of proximate mechanisms behind observed and predicted population declines, as conservation actions will require mitigation of such mechanisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  18. Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Dirzo, Rodolfo

    2017-07-25

    The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth's sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high-even in "species of low concern." In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a "biological annihilation" to highlight the current magnitude of Earth's ongoing sixth major extinction event.

  19. Achieving population-level violence declines: implications of the international crime drop for prevention programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisner, Manuel; Nivette, Amy; Murray, Aja Louise; Krisch, Maria

    2016-09-01

    The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations for the period 2016-2030 aim to achieve a substantial reduction of interpersonal violence. An increasing body of evidence of what works, emerging from randomized controlled trials, can inform public health policy decisions. However, there is very limited evidence on the kinds of mechanisms that lead to sustained declines in interpersonal violence at the population level. We discuss the implications of what is known about recent major declines in violence to guide violence-reduction policies.

  20. Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

    2018-01-18

    Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of

  1. Chronic wasting disease drives population decline of white-tailed deer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmunds, David; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant; Lindzey, Frederick G.; Cook, Walter; Kreeger, Terry J.; Grogan, Ronald; Cornish, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an invariably fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of white-tailed deer, mule deer, elk, and moose. Despite a 100% fatality rate, areas of high prevalence, and increasingly expanding geographic endemic areas, little is known about the population-level effects of CWD in deer. To investigate these effects, we tested the null hypothesis that high prevalence CWD did not negatively impact white-tailed deer population sustainability. The specific objectives of the study were to monitor CWD-positive and CWD-negative white-tailed deer in a high-prevalence CWD area longitudinally via radio-telemetry and global positioning system (GPS) collars. For the two populations, we determined the following: a) demographic and disease indices, b) annual survival, and c) finite rate of population growth (λ). The CWD prevalence was higher in females (42%) than males (28.8%) and hunter harvest and clinical CWD were the most frequent causes of mortality, with CWD-positive deer over-represented in harvest and total mortalities. Survival was significantly lower for CWD-positive deer and separately by sex; CWD-positive deer were 4.5 times more likely to die annually than CWD-negative deer while bucks were 1.7 times more likely to die than does. Population λ was 0.896 (0.859–0.980), which indicated a 10.4% annual decline. We show that a chronic disease that becomes endemic in wildlife populations has the potential to be population-limiting and the strong population-level effects of CWD suggest affected populations are not sustainable at high disease prevalence under current harvest levels.

  2. Decline of the Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) population in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, 2001-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaime L. Stephens; Sarah M. Rockwell; C. John Ralph; John D Alexander

    2015-01-01

    We monitored the Black Tern (Childonias niger) population at Agency and Upper Klamath Lakes, in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, from 2001–2010. We estimated that the population of adult Black Terns declined at these 2 joined waterbodies by 8.4% annually. In contrast, our analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data for the Bird...

  3. Hungarian Population Discourses in the Twentieth Century: The Problem of Declining Birth Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Ildikó Szántó

    2016-01-01

    Falling birth rates had already been recorded as early as the late-eighteenth century in south-western Hungary in the Ormánság. Population loss from low birth rate remained one of the main topics writers and sociologists focused on in the twentieth century. The issue of Hungarian population decline was highlighted among the social ills in the interwar period, which was one of several subjects that divided intellectuals into ‘populists’ and ‘urbanites’. Following the impact of the low birth ra...

  4. Growing hickories (Carya spp.) for roost trees: A method to support conservation of declining bat populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tara Luna; Daniel L. Lindner; R. Kasten Dumroese

    2014-01-01

    Bats (Vespertilionidae and Phyllostomidae) are a critically important component of North American ecosystems. These insectivorous mammals provide largely unrecognized ecosystem services to agriculture and forest health and sustain bat-dependent native plant populations. The decline of North American bat populations reflects the recent emergence of the fungal disease...

  5. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rwegoshora Rwehumbiza T

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum has historically been a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. Recent reports indicate a pronounced decline in infection and disease rates which are commonly ascribed to large-scale bed net programmes and improved case management. However, the decline has also occurred in areas with limited or no intervention. The present study assessed temporal changes in Anopheline populations in two highly malaria-endemic communities of NE Tanzania during the period 1998-2009. Methods Between 1998 and 2001 (1st period and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period, mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and were used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. Results The average number of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009, the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. Conclusion A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite the absence of organized vector control. Part of the decline could be associated with changes in the pattern of monthly rainfall, but other factors may also contribute to the dramatic downward trend. A similar decline in malaria vector densities could contribute to the decrease in levels of malaria infection reported from many parts of SSA.

  6. Decline and local extinction of Fucales in French Riviera: the harbinger of future extinctions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. THIBAUT

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The French Riviera is one of the Mediterranean areas that has been longest and most thoroughly impacted by human activities. Fucales are long-lived, large-sized brown algae that constitute a good model for studying human impact on species diversity. We gathered all historical data (literature and herbarium vouchers, since the early 19th century, to reconstruct their distribution. The current distribution was established from a 7-year (2007-2013 survey of the 212-km shoreline (1/2 500 map, by means of boating, snorkelling and scuba diving. Overall, 18 taxa of Cystoseira and Sargassum have been reported. Upon comparison with historical data, 5 taxa were no longer observed (C. elegans, C. foeniculacea f. latiramosa, C. squarrosa, C. spinosa var. spinosa and S. hornschuchii while C. jabukae, previously unrecorded, was observed. In addition to these  taxa, probably extinct at a local scale, some taxa had suffered a dramatic decline (C. barbata f. barbata, C. crinita, C. spinosa var. compressa and S. acinarium or become nearly extinct (C. foeniculacea f. tenuiramosa. Three of them, which played in the past significant functional roles in coastal communities, can be considered as functionally extinct. Possible causes of decline and local extinction are discussed. A similar situation has already been reported, although at a much more local scale, in a variety of Mediterranean localities. The question therefore arises about the status of Fucales species in the Mediterranean: are some species on the brink of extinction? Is their extinction at the scale of the French Riviera the harbinger of their extinction Mediterranean–wide?

  7. Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

    2018-01-01

    A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

  8. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-01-01

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

  9. Subwavelength atom localization via coherent population trapping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agarwal, G S; Kapale, K T

    2006-01-01

    We present an atom localization scheme based on coherent population trapping. We consider atomic transitions in a Lambda configuration where the control field is a standing-wave field. The probe field and the control field produce coherence between the two ground states and prepare the atom in a pure state. We show that the population in one of the ground states has the same fringe pattern as produced by a Fabry-Perot interferometer and thus measurement of this population would localize the atom. Interestingly enough the role of the cavity finesse is played by the ratio of the intensities of the pump and probe. This is in fact the reason for obtaining extreme subwavelength localization

  10. Some economic consequences of an ageing and declining population in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeson, G W

    1983-01-01

    Figures for 1981 indicate that Denmark has a fertility level of 1.45 which has been below replacement level since 1968. In that same time period, natural increase has decreased from over 27,000 in 1968 to only 1354 in 1980 and a negative natural increase in 1981 with deaths outnumbering births by 3001. Even during the depression in the 1930's, net population increase was between 6-9/1000 with a fertility level which hovered around replacement level. At that time, the number of females in the childbearing ages was enough to provide population growth, whereas the number is much less today. Population increase is only 0.3/1000. The national population projections for Denmark for 1981-2010 assume an increase in the fertility level from 1.45-1.70 by 1991 after which it remains constant. The number of 20-39 year olds increased steadily until 1945 after which there was a decline as the cohorts from periods with low fertility levels entered this age group, but this was again followed by a steady increase to the present day. The number of females aged 0-39 years is expected to decrease in all age groups to the year 2000. Those aged 40-59 increased in numbers from 1920 to the mid 1960s, since then they have decreased in number, but an increase is forcast for the remainder of the century. The number of elderly females also increased steadily from 1930-80, from about 200,000 to over 550,000; this is expected to continue until 1990 when a short-term decline will set in. Regarding the economic and social consequences of these trends, it is shown that the present decline in fertility has its origins in a period of low unemployment and its negative growth while there was still relatively low unemployment and economic growth. In 1973 the unemployed rate was 0.9% of the work force and this rose to 9.2% in 1981. The Danish population has aged from one with 1/4 million people aged 60 and over at the turn of the century to about 1 million of that age today. Also, the aged themselves

  11. Global amphibian declines: perspectives from the United States and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Densmore, Christine L.; Cipriano, R.C.; Bruckner, A.W.; Shchelkunov, I.S.

    2011-01-01

    Over recent decades, amphibians have experienced population declines, extirpations and species-level extinctions at an alarming rate. Numerous potential etiologies for amphibian declines have been postulated including climate and habitat degradation. Other potential anthropogenic causes including overexploitation and the frequent introductions of invasive predatory species have also been blamed for amphibian declines. Still other underlying factors may include infectious diseases caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, pathogenic viruses (Ranavirus), and other agents. It is nearly certain that more than one etiology is to blame for the majority of the global amphibian declines, and that these causal factors include some combination of climatological or physical habitat destabilization and infectious disease, most notably chytridiomycosis. Scientific research efforts are aimed at elucidating these etiologies on local, regional, and global scales that we might better understand and counteract the driving forces behind amphibian declines. Conservation efforts as outlined in the Amphibian Conservation Action Plan of 2005 are also being made to curtail losses and prevent further extinctions wherever possible.

  12. An analysis of the declining support for the ANC during the 2011 South African local government elections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Twala

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Local government elections are notorious for low voter turnout, but the May 2011 elections in South Africa showed a record 58 percent of the 24 million registered voters. In South Africa, local government matters and not just because it provides a pointer to what might happen in the provincial and national elections due in 2014, but helps in determining the readiness of the African Nation Congress in providing basic services to the different communities. Interestingly, these elections were preceded by service delivery protests against the ANC. The article is an analysis of the decreased support for the ANC during the 2011 local government elections. The multifaceted reasons behind the boiling cauldron of this decline in support for the ANC are scrutinised. Underpinning this decline in support often lie deep and complex factors which can be uncovered through a careful analysis of the ANC’s campaigning strategies ahead of these elections; the media which has been accused of rampant sensationalism; service delivery protests and mudslinging from other political parties. However, it is not the author’s intention in this article to deal with how other parties fared during these elections, but to highlight their impact on the declined support received by the ANC in the elections. The discussion is presented in four parts: the first presents an exploratory discussion on the theory of local government in the sphere of governance. The second part discusses some key strategies and tactics used by the ANC in attempts to galvanise support, as well as the challenges encountered. The third deals with the opposition parties’ machinery in preventing the ANC from getting a majority vote during the election. Lastly, the article concludes by highlighting the lessons learnt by the ANC during these elections within the framework of electoral politics in South Africa. Keywords: local election 2011, African National Congress (ANC, local government.  Disciplines

  13. Local cases of institutional entrepreneurship:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gretzinger, Susanne; Leick, Birgit

    2018-01-01

    Population ageing and population decline are two contemporary phenomena that imply a tremendous transformation of local markets across many European regions and challenge their economic growth and development in the longer run. In such contexts of market change and, perhaps, crisis, institutional...... agendas and frameworks (including the institutionalised practices used in the local economy) can be stabilising anchors for the strategic planning of firms and public organisations. However, demographic challenges will also put a strain on these institutions that become subject to change themselves...... to support the local economy in coping with demographic challenges....

  14. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Samantha J; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Jones, Carl G; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography, but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall) and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture, it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will

  15. Exposure of harbour seals Phoca vitulina to Brucella in declining populations across Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kershaw, Joanna L; Stubberfield, Emma J; Foster, Geoffrey; Brownlow, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa J; Perrett, Lorraine L

    2017-09-20

    Since 2000 there has been a major decline in the abundance of Scottish harbour seals Phoca vitulina. The causes of the decline remain uncertain. The aim of this study was to establish the extent to which the seals in the regions of greatest decline have been exposed to Brucella, a bacterial pathogen that causes reproductive failure in terrestrial mammalian hosts. Tissues from dead seals collected between 1992 and 2013 were cultured for Brucella (n = 150). Serum samples collected from live capture-released seals (n = 343) between 1997 and 2012 were tested for Brucella antibodies using the Rose Bengal plate agglutination test (RBT) and a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA). In total, 16% of seals cultured had Brucella isolated from one or more tissues, but there were no pathological signs of infection. The cELISA results were more sensitive than the RBT results, showing that overall 25.4% of seals were seropositive, with the highest seroprevalence in juveniles. As there was no evidence of either a higher seroprevalence or higher circulating antibody levels in seropositive animals in the areas with the greatest declines, it was concluded that Brucella infection is likely not a major contributing factor to recent declines. However, the consistently high proportion of seals exposed to Brucella indicates possible endemicity in these populations, likely due to B. pinnipedialis, which has demonstrated a preference for pinniped hosts. Importantly, given the close proximity between seals, humans and livestock in many areas, there is the potential for cross-species infections.

  16. Ancient and contemporary DNA reveal a pre-human decline but no population bottleneck associated with recent human persecution in the kea (Nestor notabilis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Dussex

    Full Text Available The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis. Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000-5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410, historical (n = 15 and fossil samples (n = 4 showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 - 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines.

  17. Ancient and contemporary DNA reveal a pre-human decline but no population bottleneck associated with recent human persecution in the kea (Nestor notabilis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J; Robertson, Bruce C

    2015-01-01

    The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000-5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 - 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines.

  18. Ancient and Contemporary DNA Reveal a Pre-Human Decline but No Population Bottleneck Associated with Recent Human Persecution in the Kea (Nestor notabilis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Robertson, Bruce C.

    2015-01-01

    The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000–5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 – 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines. PMID:25719752

  19. The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, R A; Byles, J; Magliano, D J; Mitchell, P; Anstey, K J

    2015-03-01

    Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes. Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death. Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death. Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

  20. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf; Pedersen, Erling Møller; Alifrangis, Michael

    2011-01-01

    ) and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period), mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and was used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. RESULTS: The average number...... of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009), the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline...... in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. CONCLUSION: A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite...

  1. The population decline of Gyps vultures in India and Nepal has slowed since veterinary use of diclofenac was banned.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vibhu Prakash

    Full Text Available Populations of oriental white-backed vulture (Gyps bengalensis, long-billed vulture (Gyps indicus and slender-billed vulture (Gyps tenuirostris crashed during the mid-1990s throughout the Indian subcontinent. Surveys in India, initially conducted in 1991-1993 and repeated in 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2007, revealed that the population of Gyps bengalensis had fallen by 2007 to 0.1% of its numbers in the early 1990s, with the population of Gyps indicus and G. tenuirostris combined having fallen to 3.2% of its earlier level. A survey of G. bengalensis in western Nepal indicated that the size of the population in 2009 was 25% of that in 2002. In this paper, repeat surveys conducted in 2011 were analysed to estimate recent population trends. Populations of all three species of vulture remained at a low level, but the decline had slowed and may even have reversed for G. bengalensis, both in India and Nepal. However, estimates of the most recent population trends are imprecise, so it is possible that declines may be continuing, though at a significantly slower rate. The degree to which the decline of G. bengalensis in India has slowed is consistent with the expected effects on population trend of a measured change in the level of contamination of ungulate carcasses with the drug diclofenac, which is toxic to vultures, following a ban on its veterinary use in 2006. The most recent available information indicates that the elimination of diclofenac from the vultures' food supply is incomplete, so further efforts are required to fully implement the ban.

  2. Rapid population decline in red knots : fitness consequences of decreased refuelling rates and late arrival in Delaware Bay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baker, AJ; Gonzalez, PM; Piersma, T; Niles, LJ; do Nascimento, IDS; Atkinson, PW; Clark, NA; Minton, CDT; Peck, MK; Aarts, G

    2004-01-01

    Most populations of migrant shorebirds around the world are in serious decline, suggesting that vital condition-dependent rates such as fecundity and annual survival are being affected globally. A striking example is the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) population wintering in Tierra del Fuego,

  3. Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines

    OpenAIRE

    Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Dirzo, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    The strong focus on species extinctions, a critical aspect of the contemporary pulse of biological extinction, leads to a common misimpression that Earth’s biota is not immediately threatened, just slowly entering an episode of major biodiversity loss. This view overlooks the current trends of population declines and extinctions. Using a sample of 27,600 terrestrial vertebrate species, and a more detailed analysis of 177 mammal species, we show the extremely high degree of population decay in...

  4. Pathogens, nutritional deficiency, and climate influences on a declining moose population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, D.L.; Cox, E.W.; Ballard, W.B.; Whitlaw, Heather A.; Lenarz, M.S.; Custer, T.W.; Barnett, T.; Fuller, T.K.

    2006-01-01

    Several potential proximate causes may be implicated in a recent (post-1984) decline in moose (Alces alces andersoni) numbers at their southern range periphery in northwest Minnesota, USA. These causes include deleterious effects of infectious pathogens, some of which are associated with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), negative effects of climate change, increased food competition with deer or moose, legal or illegal hunting, and increased predation by gray wolves (Canis lupus) and black bears (Ursus americanus). Long-standing factors that may have contributed to the moose decline include those typically associated with marginal habitat such as nutritional deficiencies. We examined survival and productivity among radiocollared (n = 152) adult female and juvenile moose in northwest Minnesota during 1995–2000, and assessed cause of death and pathology through carcass necropsy of radiocollared and non-radiocollared animals.Aerial moose surveys suggested that hunting was an unlikely source of the numerical decline because the level of harvest was relatively low (i.e., approx. 15% / 2 yr) and the population usually grew in years following a hunt. The majority of moose mortalities (up to 87% of radiocollared moose [n = 76] and up to 65% of non-radiocollared moose [n = 84]) were proximally related to pathology associated with parasites and infectious disease. Liver fluke (Fascioloides magna) infections apparently constituted the greatest single source of mortality and caused significant pathology in the liver, thoracic and peritoneal cavities, pericardial sac, and lungs. Mortality due to meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis) was less prevalent and was manifested through characteristic neurological disease. Several mortalities apparently were associated with unidentified infectious disease, probably acting in close association with malnutrition. Bone-marrow fat was lower for moose dying of natural causes than those dying of anthropogenic factors or

  5. A retrospective analysis of pollen host plant use by stable and declining bumble bee species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleijn, David; Raemakers, Ivo

    2008-07-01

    Understanding population declines has been the objective of a wide range of ecological studies. When species have become rare such studies are complicated because particular behavior or life history traits may be the cause but also the result of the decline of a species. We approached this problem by studying species' characteristics on specimens that were collected before the onset of their decline and preserved in natural history museums. In northwestern Europe, some bumble bee species declined dramatically during the 20th century whereas other, ecologically similar, species maintained stable populations. A long-standing debate focuses on whether this is caused by declining species having stricter host plant preferences. We compared the composition of pollen loads of five bumble bee species with stable populations and five with declining populations using museum specimens collected before 1950 in Belgium, England, and The Netherlands. Prior to 1950, the number of plant taxa in pollen loads of declining species was almost one-third lower than that in stable species even though individuals of stable and declining species generally originated from the same areas. There were no systematic differences in the composition of pollen loads between stable and declining species, but the plant taxa preferred by declining species before 1950 had experienced a stronger decline in the 20th century than those preferred by stable species. In 2004 and 2005, we surveyed the areas where bumble bees had been caught in the past and compared the composition of past and present pollen loads of the stable, but not of the by now locally extinct declining species. The number of collected pollen taxa was similar, but the composition differed significantly between the two periods. Differences in composition reflected the major changes in land use in northwestern Europe but also the spread of the invasive plant species Impatiens glandulifera. The main question now is why declining species

  6. Addressing wild turkey population declines using structured decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.; Schiavone, Michael V.; Swift, Bryan L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Siemer, William F.; Decker, Daniel J.

    2017-01-01

    We present a case study from New York, USA, of the use of structured decision making (SDM) to identify fall turkey harvest regulations that best meet stakeholder objectives, in light of recent apparent declines in abundance of wild turkeys in the northeastern United States. We used the SDM framework to incorporate the multiple objectives associated with turkey hunting, stakeholder desires, and region-specific ecological and environmental factors that could influence fall harvest. We identified a set of 4 fall harvest regulations, composed of different season lengths and bag limits, and evaluated their relative achievement of the objectives. We used a stochastic turkey population model, statistical modeling, and expert elicitation to evaluate the consequences of each harvest regulation on each of the objectives. We conducted a statewide mail survey of fall turkey hunters in New York to gather the necessary information to evaluate tradeoffs among multiple objectives associated with hunter satisfaction. The optimal fall harvest regulation was a 2-week season and allowed for the harvest of 1 bird/hunter. This regulation was the most conservative of those evaluated, reflecting the concerns about recent declines in turkey abundance among agency wildlife biologists and the hunting public. Depending on the region of the state, the 2-week, 1-bird regulation was predicted to result in 7–32% more turkeys on the landscape after 5 years. The SDM process provided a transparent framework for setting fall turkey harvest regulations and reduced potential stakeholder conflict by explicitly taking the multiple objectives of different stakeholder groups into account.

  7. Detection and effects of harmful algal toxins in Scottish harbour seals and potential links to population decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Silje-Kristin; Lacaze, Jean-Pierre; Hermann, Guillaume; Kershaw, Joanna; Brownlow, Andrew; Turner, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa

    2015-04-01

    Over the past 15 years or so, several Scottish harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations have declined in abundance and several factors have been considered as possible causes, including toxins from harmful algae. Here we explore whether a link could be established between two groups of toxins, domoic acid (DA) and saxitoxins (STXs), and the decline in the harbour seal populations in Scotland. We document the first evidence that harbour seals are exposed to both DA and STXs from consuming contaminated fish. Both groups of toxins were found in urine and faeces sampled from live captured (n = 162) and stranded animals (n = 23) and in faecal samples collected from seal haul-out sites (n = 214) between 2008 and 2013. The proportion of positive samples and the toxins levels measured in the excreta were significantly higher in areas where harbour seal abundance is in decline. There is also evidence that DA has immunomodulatory effects in harbour seals, including lymphocytopenia and monocytosis. Scottish harbour seals are exposed to DA and STXs through contaminated prey at potentially lethal levels and with this evidence we suggest that exposure to these toxins are likely to be important factors driving the harbour seal decline in some regions of Scotland. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Linking temporal changes in the demographic structure and individual growth to the decline in the population of a tropical fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirot, Charlotte; Darnaude, Audrey M.; Guilhaumon, François; Ramos-Miranda, Julia; Flores-Hernandez, Domingo; Panfili, Jacques

    2015-11-01

    The exceptional biodiversity and productivity of tropical coastal lagoons can only be preserved by identifying the causes for the decline in the populations living in these vulnerable ecosystems. The Terminos lagoon in Mexico provided an opportunity for studying this issue as some of its fish populations, in particular the Silver Perch (Bairdiella chrysoura), have declined significantly since the 1980s. Fish sampling campaigns carried out over the whole lagoon area in 1979-81 and again in 2006-2011 revealed the mechanisms which may have been responsible for this decline. Based on biometrical data for 295 juveniles and adults from the two periods and on somatic growth derived from 173 otoliths, a study of the temporal changes in the demographic structure and life history traits (individual growth and body condition) made it possible to distinguish the causes of the decline in the B. chrysoura population. Growth models for the lagoon in 1980-1981 and 2006-2011 showed no significant change in the growth parameters of the population over the last 30 years with a logistic model giving an accurate estimate (R2 = 0.66) of the size-at-age for both periods. The decline in the B. chrysoura population could not be explained by an overall decrease in individual size and condition in the lagoon, the average standard length (SL) and Fulton index (FI) having increased slightly since 1980-1981 (4.6 mm and 0.02 for juveniles and 5.42 mm and 0.07 for adults). However, the size structure of the population in the lagoon has changed, with a significant shift in the size distribution of juveniles with a marked reduction in the proportion of juveniles ≤ 60 mm in the captures (90.9% fewer than in 1980-1981). As the otolith growth rate of fish during the first 4 months also decreased significantly between the two sampling periods (-15%), it is suggested that the main reason for the decline in the abundance and biomass of B. chrysoura within this system may be that its habitats are less

  9. Family planning, population policy and declining birth rates in Yugoslavia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malacic, J

    1989-01-01

    Although Yugoslavia has below-replacement fertility (a net reproduction rate in 1986 of 0.92), there are vast regional differentials. In the less developed autonomous province of Kosovo, for example, the population has doubled in the past 30 years. By region, the net reproduction rate ranges from a low of 0.83 in Croatia to a high of 1.80 in Kosovo. Until the late 1970s, when pronatalism and centralized economic planning had weakened in influence, there was an avoidance of demographic planning and policy. In 1975, the Federal Assembly issued a document on the country's demographic patterns and goals and called on republics and autonomous provinces to adapt the document to local situations--a step that was not taken. By the 1980s, the deteriorating political, economic, and demographic situation in regions with high fertility forced more explicit attention to the formulation of a national population policy. The 1989 Resolution on Population Development Policy and Family Planning sets the goal of replacement- level fertility for both high and low fertility regions and calls for an integrated approach to population issues and socioeconomic development. Decentralization, however, has represented a major obstacle to the execution of federal policy at the republic and lower local levels. While this is a chronic problem that must be addressed on the macro level, some progress could be achieved in problematic regions such as Kosovo through educational campaigns aimed at convincing individual couples of the advantages of family size of 2-3 children.

  10. Garter snakes distributions in high elevation aquatic ecosystems: Is there a link with declining amphibian populations and nonnative trout introductions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    K.R. Matthews; R.A. Knapp; K.L. Pope

    2002-01-01

    ABSTRACT.—The dramatic amphibian population declines reported worldwide likely have important effects on their predators. In the Sierra Nevada, where amphibian declines are well documented and some are closely tied to the introduction of nonnative trout, the mountain garter snake, Thamnophis elegans elegans, preys predominately on amphibians. We surveyed 2103 high-...

  11. The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Richard S A; Wintle, Brendan A; McHugh, Peter A; Booker, Douglas J; McIntosh, Angus R

    2017-06-14

    Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory. Local time-to-extinction increased with carrying capacity due to declining sensitivity to demographic stochasticity, and the slope of this relationship declined significantly as environmental stochasticity increased. However, recent 1 in 25 yr extreme droughts were insufficient to extirpate populations with large carrying capacity. Consequently, large populations may be more resilient to environmental stochasticity than previously thought. The lack of carrying capacity-related asymptotes in persistence under extreme climate variability reveals how small populations affected by habitat loss or overharvesting, may be disproportionately threatened by increases in extreme climate events with global warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

  12. Could Immigration Prevent Population Decline? The Demographic Prospects of Germany Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes Weber

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Germany has a record of more than 40 years of below-replacement fertility and annual death surplus. Hence, it is commonly accepted that Germany’s population will decline considerably in the coming decades. Recent increases in immigration may, however, challenge the official long-term demographic projections for Germany. This paper assesses the impact of a permanent higher-than-expected level of net immigration to Germany as in the past three years on the projections for population, age structure and ethnic makeup by mid-century.The paper adds a higher immigration variant to the Federal Statistical Office’s latest Coordinated Population Projection and two variants of a (a constant or (b decreasing fertility rate among migrant women. It can be shown that with permanent net migration as high as in recent years (around 300,000 per annum, Germany’s population would not significantly decrease in the coming decades but would rather remain at 80 million until 2050. On the other hand, the sharp rise in the old-age dependency ratio is only mildly weakened by increased immigration rates. This issue is therefore probably best addressed by other (or additional means. The increase in retirees will level off after 2035 in any case. The ethnic makeup of society would be affected to a greater degree than its age composition: The share of first- and second-generation immigrants among the total population is projected to rise to about 35 percent in this scenario (and to above 40 percent if the third generation is also counted.

  13. UV-B Radiation Contributes to Amphibian Population Declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew

    2007-05-01

    UV-B (280-315 nm) radiation is the most significant biologically damaging radiation at the terrestrial surface. At the organismal level, UV-B radiation can slow growth rates, cause immune dysfunction and result in sublethal damage. UV-B radiation can lead to mutations and cell death. Over evolutionary time, UV radiation has been an important stressor on living organisms. Natural events, including impacts from comets and asteroids, volcanic activity, supernova explosions and solar flares, can cause large-scale ozone depletion with accompanying increases in UV radiation. However, these natural events are transient. Moreover, the amount of ozone damage due to natural events depends upon a number of variables, including the magnitude of the event. This is different from modern-day human-induced production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other chemicals that deplete stratospheric ozone continuously, resulting in long-term increases in UV-B radiation at the surface of the earth. We will briefly review the effects of UV-B exposure in one group of aquatic organisms_amphibians. UV-B has been implicated as a possible factor contributing to global declines and range reductions in amphibian populations.

  14. Chinese culture and fertility decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C; Jia, S

    1992-01-01

    Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self

  15. Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

    2016-06-01

    Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

  16. FUTURE ESTIMATION OF CONVENIENCE LIVING FACILITIES WITHDRAWAL DUE TO POPULATION DECLINE ALL OVER JAPAN FROM 2010 TO 2040 - FOCUS ON SUPERMARKETS, CONVENIENCE STORES AND DRUGSTORES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Nishimoto

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

  17. Investigating Stakeholder Perceptions of Fish Decline: Making Sense of Multiple Mental Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Horowitz

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Stakeholders have different educational backgrounds, personal experiences and priorities that contribute to different perceptions about what causes natural resource decline and how to sustain a resource. Yet stakeholders have a common interest, which is to keep the resource of interest from declining. Effective co-management requires sharing of perceptions pertaining to the sustainability of a resource and making decisions that benefit all stakeholders. Therefore, this study used modified causal networks, referred to here as mental models, to elicit and compare stakeholder perceptions about fish decline in the Danajon Bank, Philippines. Perceptions were elicited from three types of stakeholders, each composed of two or three elicitation groups: fishers, local government and environmental organizations. Data were also elicited through semi-structured discussions to investigate why perceptions differed and how stakeholders communicated with one another. Hierarchical clustering revealed two broad clusters of similar perceptions about drivers of fish decline: one being environmental groups and the second being local government and fisher groups. Stakeholder communication patterns revealed that communication was weakest between environmental groups and fishers. A likely contributing factor for the lack of shared perceptions was that knowledge-sharing was constrained by the small number of environmental personnel available to exchange information effectively with the much larger number of fishers and local government personnel. To better co-manage fish populations in Danajon Bank, we suggest modifications to the governance framework to improve knowledge-sharing and social and ecological outcomes.

  18. Airborne Pesticides as an Unlikely Cause for Population Declines of Alpine Frogs in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured...

  19. Local population extinction and vitality of an epiphytic lichen in fragmented old-growth forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockinger, Erik; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-07-01

    The population dynamics of organisms living in short-lived habitats will largely depend on the turnover of habitat patches. It has been suggested that epiphytes, whose host plants can be regarded as habitat patches, often form such patch-tracking populations. However, very little is known about the long-term fate of epiphyte individuals and populations. We estimated life span and assessed environmental factors influencing changes in vitality, fertility, abundance, and distribution of the epiphytic lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria on two spatial scales, individual trees and forest patches, over a period of approximately 10 years in 66 old-growth forest fragments. The lichen had gone extinct from 7 of the 66 sites (13.0%) where it was found 10 years earlier, even though the sites remained unchanged. The risk of local population extinction increased with decreasing population size. In contrast to the decrease in the number of occupied trees and sites, the mean area of the lichen per tree increased by 43.0%. The number of trees with fertile ramets of L. pulmonaria increased from 7 (approximately 1%) to 61 (approximately 10%) trees, and the number of forest fragments with fertile ramets increased from 4 to 23 fragments. The mean annual rate of L. pulmonaria extinction at the tree level was estimated to be 2.52%, translating into an expected lifetime of 39.7 years. This disappearance rate is higher than estimated mortality rates for potential host trees. The risk of extinction at the tree level was significantly positively related to tree circumference and differed between tree species. The probability of presence of fertile ramets increased significantly with local population size. Our results show a long expected lifetime of Lobaria pulmonaria ramets on individual trees and a recent increase in vitality, probably due to decreasing air pollution. The population is, however, declining slowly even though remaining stands are left uncut, which we interpret as an

  20. Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

    2014-01-01

    The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

  1. Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Christianson

    Full Text Available The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

  2. Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations

    OpenAIRE

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G.

    2009-01-01

    Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 7...

  3. Comparative metatranscriptomics reveals decline of a neustonic planktonic population

    KAUST Repository

    Mojib, Nazia; Thimma, Manjula; Kumaran, M.; Sougrat, Rachid; Irigoien, Xabier

    2016-01-01

    The neuston layer in tropical seas provides a good model to study the effects of increased levels of different stressors (e.g., temperature, ultraviolet radiation and Trichodesmium blooms). Here, we use a comparative in situ metatranscriptomics approach to reveal the functional genomic composition of metabolically active neustonic mesozooplankton community in response to the summer conditions in the Red Sea. The neustonic population exhibited changes in composition and abundance with a significant decline in copepods and appendicularia in July, when Trichodesmium cells were more abundant along with high temperatures and UV-B radiation. Nearly 23,000 genes were differentially expressed at the community level when the metatranscriptomes of the neustonic zooplankton were compared in April, July, and October. On a wider Phylum level, the genes related to oxidative phosphorylation, carbon, nucleotides, amino acids, and lipids were significantly overrepresented in both arthropods and chordates in April and October. On organism level for copepods, expression of genes responsive to oxidative stress, defense against bacteria, immune response, and virus reproduction were increased along with the observed increased appearance of copepod carcasses in the samples collected during July. The differences in expression correspond either to secondary effects of the Trichodesmium bloom or more likely to the increased UV-B radiation in July. Given the dearth of information on the zooplankton gene expression in response to environmental stimuli, our study provides the first transcriptome landscape of the mesozooplankton community during a period of increased mortality of the copepod and appendicularia population.

  4. Comparative metatranscriptomics reveals decline of a neustonic planktonic population

    KAUST Repository

    Mojib, Nazia

    2016-10-20

    The neuston layer in tropical seas provides a good model to study the effects of increased levels of different stressors (e.g., temperature, ultraviolet radiation and Trichodesmium blooms). Here, we use a comparative in situ metatranscriptomics approach to reveal the functional genomic composition of metabolically active neustonic mesozooplankton community in response to the summer conditions in the Red Sea. The neustonic population exhibited changes in composition and abundance with a significant decline in copepods and appendicularia in July, when Trichodesmium cells were more abundant along with high temperatures and UV-B radiation. Nearly 23,000 genes were differentially expressed at the community level when the metatranscriptomes of the neustonic zooplankton were compared in April, July, and October. On a wider Phylum level, the genes related to oxidative phosphorylation, carbon, nucleotides, amino acids, and lipids were significantly overrepresented in both arthropods and chordates in April and October. On organism level for copepods, expression of genes responsive to oxidative stress, defense against bacteria, immune response, and virus reproduction were increased along with the observed increased appearance of copepod carcasses in the samples collected during July. The differences in expression correspond either to secondary effects of the Trichodesmium bloom or more likely to the increased UV-B radiation in July. Given the dearth of information on the zooplankton gene expression in response to environmental stimuli, our study provides the first transcriptome landscape of the mesozooplankton community during a period of increased mortality of the copepod and appendicularia population.

  5. The use of population viability analysis to identify possible factors contributing to the decline of a rare ungulate population in south-eastern Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D. Capon

    2013-04-01

    Conservation implications: Sable generally occur at low densities in the lowveld region of Zimbabwe and, as such, populations are vulnerable to increases in mortality rates. The role of lions in driving the decline at the MWR suggests a need to control their numbers and develop prey refuges through improved management of artificial water.

  6. Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-01-07

    Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

  7. Breeding ecology of the southern shrike, Lanius meridionalis, in an agrosystem of south–eastern Spain: the surprisingly excellent breeding success in a declining population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreno-Rueda, G.; Abril-Colon, I.; Lopez-Orta, A.; Alvarez-Benito, I.; Castillo-Gomez, C.; Comas, M.; Rivas, J.M.

    2016-07-01

    The southern shrike, Lanius meridionalis, is declining at the Spanish and European level. One cause of this decline could be low reproductive success due to low availability of prey in agricultural environments. To investigate this possibility we analysed the breeding ecology of a population of southern shrike in an agrosystem in Lomas de Padul (SE Spain). Our results suggest the population is declining in this area. However, contrary to expectations, the population showed the highest reproductive success (% nests in which at least one egg produces a fledgling) reported for this species to date (83.3%), with a productivity of 4.04 fledglings per nest. Reproductive success varied throughout the years, ranging from 75% in the worst year to 92.9% in the best year. Similarly, productivity ranged from 3.25 to 5.0 fledglings per nest depending on the year. Other aspects of reproductive biology, such as clutch size, brood size, and nestling diet, were similar to those reported in other studies. Based on these results, we hypothesise that the determinant of population decline acts on the juvenile fraction, drastically reducing the recruitment rate, or affecting the dispersion of adults and recruits. Nevertheless, the exact factor or factors are unknown. This study shows that a high reproductive success does not guarantee good health status of the population. (Author)

  8. FACTORS IMPLICATED IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES IN THE UNITED STATES

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study identified the factors responsible for the decline of native amphibians in the U.S. The type of land use, the introduction of exotic animal species, and chemical contamination were identified as the most likely causes of decline.

  9. The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2018-01-01

    Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

  10. Metabolic syndrome but not obesity measures are risk factors for accelerated age-related glomerular filtration rate decline in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, Vidar T N; Schei, Jørgen; Solbu, Marit D; Jenssen, Trond G; Melsom, Toralf; Eriksen, Bjørn O

    2018-05-01

    Rapid age-related glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline increases the risk of end-stage renal disease, and a low GFR increases the risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease. High body mass index and the metabolic syndrome are well-known risk factors for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease, but their role in accelerating age-related GFR decline independent of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and diabetes is not adequately understood. We studied body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and metabolic syndrome as risk factors for accelerated GFR decline in 1261 middle-aged people representative of the general population without diabetes, cardiovascular disease or kidney disease. GFR was measured as iohexol clearance at baseline and repeated after a median of 5.6 years. Metabolic syndrome was defined as fulfilling three out of five criteria, based on waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides. The mean GFR decline rate was 0.95 ml/min/year. Neither the body mass index, waist circumference nor waist-hip ratio predicted statistically significant changes in age-related GFR decline, but individuals with baseline metabolic syndrome had a significant mean of 0.30 ml/min/year faster decline than individuals without metabolic syndrome in a multivariable adjusted linear regression model. This association was mainly driven by the triglyceride criterion of metabolic syndrome, which was associated with a significant 0.36 ml/min/year faster decline when analyzed separately. Results differed significantly when GFR was estimated using creatinine and/or cystatin C. Thus, metabolic syndrome, but not the body mass index, waist circumference or waist-hip ratio, is an independent risk factor for accelerated age-related GFR decline in the general population. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Hanser, Steven E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Edmunds, David R.; Espinosa, Shawn P.

    2017-08-10

    Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial

  12. Climate Warming as a Possible Trigger of Keystone Mussel Population Decline in Oligotrophic Rivers at the Continental Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolotov, Ivan N; Makhrov, Alexander A; Gofarov, Mikhail Yu; Aksenova, Olga V; Aspholm, Paul E; Bespalaya, Yulia V; Kabakov, Mikhail B; Kolosova, Yulia S; Kondakov, Alexander V; Ofenböck, Thomas; Ostrovsky, Andrew N; Popov, Igor Yu; von Proschwitz, Ted; Rudzīte, Mudīte; Rudzītis, Māris; Sokolova, Svetlana E; Valovirta, Ilmari; Vikhrev, Ilya V; Vinarski, Maxim V; Zotin, Alexey A

    2018-01-08

    The effects of climate change on oligotrophic rivers and their communities are almost unknown, albeit these ecosystems are the primary habitat of the critically endangered freshwater pearl mussel and its host fishes, salmonids. The distribution and abundance of pearl mussels have drastically decreased throughout Europe over the last century, particularly within the southern part of the range, but causes of this wide-scale extinction process are unclear. Here we estimate the effects of climate change on pearl mussels based on historical and recent samples from 50 rivers and 6 countries across Europe. We found that the shell convexity may be considered an indicator of the thermal effects on pearl mussel populations under warming climate because it reflects shifts in summer temperatures and is significantly different in viable and declining populations. Spatial and temporal modeling of the relationship between shell convexity and population status show that global climate change could have accelerated the population decline of pearl mussels over the last 100 years through rapidly decreasing suitable distribution areas. Simulation predicts future warming-induced range reduction, particularly in southern regions. These results highlight the importance of large-scale studies of keystone species, which can underscore the hidden effects of climate warming on freshwater ecosystems.

  13. Population genetics models of local ancestry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravel, Simon

    2012-06-01

    Migrations have played an important role in shaping the genetic diversity of human populations. Understanding genomic data thus requires careful modeling of historical gene flow. Here we consider the effect of relatively recent population structure and gene flow and interpret genomes of individuals that have ancestry from multiple source populations as mosaics of segments originating from each population. This article describes general and tractable models for local ancestry patterns with a focus on the length distribution of continuous ancestry tracts and the variance in total ancestry proportions among individuals. The models offer improved agreement with Wright-Fisher simulation data when compared to the state-of-the art and can be used to infer time-dependent migration rates from multiple populations. Considering HapMap African-American (ASW) data, we find that a model with two distinct phases of "European" gene flow significantly improves the modeling of both tract lengths and ancestry variances.

  14. Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA is announcing the availability of the final report, Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California. This report describes a causal assessment of the decline in the abundance of San Joaq...

  15. Ginkgo biloba extract and long-term cognitive decline: a 20-year follow-up population-based study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hélène Amieva

    Full Text Available Numerous studies have looked at the potential benefits of various nootropic drugs such as Ginkgo biloba extract (EGb761®; Tanakan® and piracetam (Nootropyl® on age-related cognitive decline often leading to inconclusive results due to small sample sizes or insufficient follow-up duration. The present study assesses the association between intake of EGb761® and cognitive function of elderly adults over a 20-year period.The data were gathered from the prospective community-based cohort study 'Paquid'. Within the study sample of 3612 non-demented participants aged 65 and over at baseline, three groups were compared: 589 subjects reporting use of EGb761® at at least one of the ten assessment visits, 149 subjects reporting use of piracetam at one of the assessment visits and 2874 subjects not reporting use of either EGb761® or piracetam. Decline on MMSE, verbal fluency and visual memory over the 20-year follow-up was analysed with a multivariate mixed linear effects model. A significant difference in MMSE decline over the 20-year follow-up was observed in the EGb761® and piracetam treatment groups compared to the 'neither treatment' group. These effects were in opposite directions: the EGb761® group declined less rapidly than the 'neither treatment' group, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (β = -0.6. Regarding verbal fluency and visual memory, no difference was observed between the EGb761® group and the 'neither treatment' group (respectively, β = 0.21 and β = -0.03, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (respectively, β = -1.40 and β = -0.44. When comparing the EGb761® and piracetam groups directly, a different decline was observed for the three tests (respectively β = -1.07, β = -1.61 and β = -0.41.Cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population was lower in subjects who reported using EGb761® than in those who did not. This effect may be a specific medication

  16. Fractures as an independent predictor of functional decline in older people: a population-based study with an 8-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piirtola, Maarit; Löppönen, Minna; Vahlberg, Tero; Isoaho, Raimo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Räihä, Ismo

    2012-01-01

    Fractures among older people are common, but there is scant evidence about the impact of fractures on functional decline in an unselected older population. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of lower and upper body fractures on functional performance among older adults during an 8-year follow-up. A population-based cohort of 616 Finnish persons aged 65 and over was followed for up to 8 years, and the association between fractures and the risk of short-term (0-2 years) and long-term (up to 8 years) functional decline was analyzed. Fractures were categorized according their functional influence on mobility and activities of daily living (ADL) into lower and upper body fractures. Multivariate cumulative logistic regression model was used in the analyses. During the 8-year follow-up, 112 (18%) persons sustained at least one fracture. In the multivariate analyses, lower body fractures predicted both short-term and long-term decline in mobility [cumulative odds ratio (COR) 4.7, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.9-11.7 and COR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6.2, respectively] and in ADL performance (COR 3.1, 95% CI 1.3-7.6 and COR 4.7, 95% CI 2.0-11.4, respectively). Upper body fractures predicted decline in ADL performance during the long-term follow-up (COR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3-4.8). Pre-fracture functional decline and inactivity in leisure time physical exercise were independently associated with the risk of decline in extensive activities. Fractures have an independent influence on the development of functional decline in older persons regardless of the pre-fracture health. Prevention of falls and fractures and improvement of treatment, rehabilitation and follow-up process after fractures are needed. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

    2011-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

  18. POPULATION DECLINES OF THE PUERTO RICAN VIREO IN GUANICA FOREST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    JOHN FAABORG; KATE M. DUGGER; WAYNE J. ARENDT; BETHANY L. WOODWORTH; MICHAEL E. BALTZ

    1997-01-01

    Abundance of the Puerto Rican Vireo (Vireo Zutimeri) in Guanica Forest, Puerto Rico, has declined gradually over the period 1973-1996 as determined by constant effort mist netting. Concurrent studies of breeding vireos show low nesting success, primarily due to parasitism by Shiny Cowbirds (Molothrus bonariensis). This decline may reflect the rather recent entry of the...

  19. Reed Warbler Hosts Fine-Tune their Defenses to Track Three Decades of Cuckoo Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorogood, Rose; Davies, Nicholas B

    2013-01-01

    Interactions between avian hosts and brood parasites can provide a model for how animals adapt to a changing world. Reed warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus) hosts employ costly defenses to combat parasitism by common cuckoos (Cuculus canorus). During the past three decades cuckoos have declined markedly across England, reducing parasitism at our study site (Wicken Fen) from 24% of reed warbler nests in 1985 to 1% in 2012. Here we show with experiments that host mobbing and egg rejection defenses have tracked this decline in local parasitism risk: the proportion of reed warbler pairs mobbing adult cuckoos (assessed by responses to cuckoo mounts and models) has declined from 90% to 38%, and the proportion rejecting nonmimetic cuckoo eggs (assessed by responses to model eggs) has declined from 61% to 11%. This is despite no change in response to other nest enemies or mimetic model eggs. Individual variation in both defenses is predicted by parasitism risk during the host’s egg-laying period. Furthermore, the response of our study population to temporal variation in parasitism risk can also explain spatial variation in egg rejection behavior in other populations across Europe. We suggest that spatial and temporal variation in parasitism risk has led to the evolution of plasticity in reed warbler defenses. PMID:24299407

  20. Decline and conservation of bumble bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulson, D; Lye, G C; Darvill, B

    2008-01-01

    Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes.

  1. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline

    KAUST Repository

    Vignaud, Thomas M.

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world\\'s largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignaud, Thomas M; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Leblois, Raphael; Meekan, Mark G; Vázquez-Juárez, Ricardo; Ramírez-Macías, Dení; Pierce, Simon J; Rowat, David; Berumen, Michael L; Beeravolu, Champak; Baksay, Sandra; Planes, Serge

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world's largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Ecophysiology meets conservation: understanding the role of disease in amphibian population declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew R.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Hoverman, Jason T.; Belden, Lisa K.; Bradley, Paul W.; Xie, Gisselle Y.

    2012-01-01

    Infectious diseases are intimately associated with the dynamics of biodiversity. However, the role that infectious disease plays within ecological communities is complex. The complex effects of infectious disease at the scale of communities and ecosystems are driven by the interaction between host and pathogen. Whether or not a given host–pathogen interaction results in progression from infection to disease is largely dependent on the physiological characteristics of the host within the context of the external environment. Here, we highlight the importance of understanding the outcome of infection and disease in the context of host ecophysiology using amphibians as a model system. Amphibians are ideal for such a discussion because many of their populations are experiencing declines and extinctions, with disease as an important factor implicated in many declines and extinctions. Exposure to pathogens and the host's responses to infection can be influenced by many factors related to physiology such as host life history, immunology, endocrinology, resource acquisition, behaviour and changing climates. In our review, we discuss the relationship between disease and biodiversity. We highlight the dynamics of three amphibian host–pathogen systems that induce different effects on hosts and life stages and illustrate the complexity of amphibian–host–parasite systems. We then review links between environmental stress, endocrine–immune interactions, disease and climate change. PMID:22566676

  4. Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Clausius

    Full Text Available The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

  5. Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

    2014-08-01

    Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

  6. Genetic consequences of population decline in the European otter ( Lutra lutra ) : an assessment of microsatellite DNA variation in Danish otters from 1883 to 1993

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pertoldi, C.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Loeschcke, V.

    2001-01-01

    alleles, suggested that a drastic long-term population decline has taken place, which could have started more than 2000 years ago, possibly due to ancient anthropogenic pressure. Finally, assignment tests and pairwise F-ST values suggested weak but statistically significant genetic differentiation between......The European otter (Lutra lutra) was common in Denmark until the 1960s, but its present distribution encompasses only a minor part of the country. The aim of this study was to assess whether the recent population decline has resulted in loss of genetic variability and to gain further insight...

  7. Increased planned delivery contributes to declining rates of pregnancy hypertension in Australia: a population-based record linkage study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christine L; Algert, Charles S; Morris, Jonathan M; Ford, Jane B

    2015-10-05

    Since the 1990s, pregnancy hypertension rates have declined in some countries, but not all. Increasing rates of early planned delivery (before the due date) have been hypothesised as the reason for the decline. The aim of this study was to explore whether early planned delivery can partly explain the declining pregnancy hypertension rates in Australia. Population-based record linkage study utilising linked birth and hospital records. A cohort of 1,076,122 deliveries in New South Wales, Australia, 2001-2012. Pregnancy hypertension (including gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia and eclampsia) was the main outcome; pre-eclampsia was a secondary outcome. From 2001 to 2012, pregnancy hypertension rates declined by 22%, from 9.9% to 7.7%, and pre-eclampsia by 27%, from 3.3% to 2.4% (trend prate was predicted to increase to 10.5%. Examination of annual gestational age distributions showed that pregnancy hypertension rates actually declined from 38 weeks gestation and were steepest from 41 weeks; at least 36% of the decrease could be attributed to planned deliveries. The risk factors for pregnancy hypertension were also risk factors for planned delivery. It appears that an unanticipated consequence of increasing early planned deliveries is a decline in the incidence of pregnancy hypertension. Women with risk factors for hypertension were relatively more likely to be selected for early delivery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  8. Decline of heterozygosity in a large but isolated population: a 45-year examination of moose genetic diversity on Isle Royale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renae L. Sattler

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife conservation and management approaches typically focus on demographic measurements to assess population viability over both short and long periods. However, genetic diversity is an important predictor of long term population vitality. We investigated the pattern of change in genetic diversity in a large and likely isolated moose (Alces alces population on Isle Royale (Lake Superior from 1960–2005. We characterized samples, partitioned into five different 5-year periods, using nine microsatellite loci and a portion of the mtDNA control region. We also simulated the moose population to generate a theoretical backdrop of genetic diversity change. In the empirical data, we found that the number of alleles was consistently low and that observed heterozygosity notably declined from 1960 to 2005 (p = 0.08, R2 = 0.70. Furthermore, inbreeding coefficients approximately doubled from 0.08 in 1960–65 to 0.16 in 2000–05. Finally, we found that the empirical rate of observed heterozygosity decline was faster than the rate of observed heterozygosity loss in our simulations. Combined, these data suggest that genetic drift and inbreeding occurred in the Isle Royale moose populations over the study period, leading to significant losses in heterozygosity. Although inbreeding can be mitigated by migration, we found no evidence to support the occurrence of recent migrants into the population using analysis of our mtDNA haplotypes nor microsatellite data. Therefore, the Isle Royale moose population illustrates that even large populations are subjected to inbreeding in the absence of migration.

  9. Identifying species conservation strategies to reduce disease-associated declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Converse, Sarah J.; Muths, Erin L.; Crockett, Harry J.; Mosher, Brittany A.; Bailey, Larissa L.

    2018-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a salient threat to many animal taxa, causing local and global extinctions, altering communities and ecosystem function. The EID chytridiomycosis is a prominent driver of amphibian declines, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). To guide conservation policy, we developed a predictive decision-analytic model that combines empirical knowledge of host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics with expert judgment regarding effects of management actions, to select from potential conservation strategies. We apply our approach to a boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) and Bd system, identifying optimal strategies that balance tradeoffs in maximizing toad population persistence and landscape-level distribution, while considering costs. The most robust strategy is expected to reduce the decline of toad breeding sites from 53% to 21% over 50 years. Our findings are incorporated into management policy to guide conservation planning. Our online modeling application provides a template for managers of other systems challenged by EIDs.

  10. Ginkgo Biloba Extract and Long-Term Cognitive Decline: A 20-Year Follow-Up Population-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amieva, Hélène; Meillon, Céline; Helmer, Catherine; Barberger-Gateau, Pascale; Dartigues, Jean François

    2013-01-01

    Background Numerous studies have looked at the potential benefits of various nootropic drugs such as Ginkgo biloba extract (EGb761®; Tanakan®) and piracetam (Nootropyl®) on age-related cognitive decline often leading to inconclusive results due to small sample sizes or insufficient follow-up duration. The present study assesses the association between intake of EGb761® and cognitive function of elderly adults over a 20-year period. Methods and Findings The data were gathered from the prospective community-based cohort study ‘Paquid’. Within the study sample of 3612 non-demented participants aged 65 and over at baseline, three groups were compared: 589 subjects reporting use of EGb761® at at least one of the ten assessment visits, 149 subjects reporting use of piracetam at one of the assessment visits and 2874 subjects not reporting use of either EGb761® or piracetam. Decline on MMSE, verbal fluency and visual memory over the 20-year follow-up was analysed with a multivariate mixed linear effects model. A significant difference in MMSE decline over the 20-year follow-up was observed in the EGb761® and piracetam treatment groups compared to the ‘neither treatment’ group. These effects were in opposite directions: the EGb761® group declined less rapidly than the ‘neither treatment’ group, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (β = −0.6). Regarding verbal fluency and visual memory, no difference was observed between the EGb761® group and the ‘neither treatment’ group (respectively, β = 0.21 and β = −0.03), whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (respectively, β = −1.40 and β = −0.44). When comparing the EGb761® and piracetam groups directly, a different decline was observed for the three tests (respectively β = −1.07, β = −1.61 and β = −0.41). Conclusion Cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population was lower in subjects who reported using EGb761® than in

  11. Hungarian Population Discourses in the Twentieth Century: The Problem of Declining Birth Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ildikó Szántó

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Falling birth rates had already been recorded as early as the late-eighteenth century in south-western Hungary in the Ormánság. Population loss from low birth rate remained one of the main topics writers and sociologists focused on in the twentieth century. The issue of Hungarian population decline was highlighted among the social ills in the interwar period, which was one of several subjects that divided intellectuals into ‘populists’ and ‘urbanites’. Following the impact of the low birth rate figures in the 1960s, the populists’ views of the 1930s resurfaced in public discourse in the 1960s and 1970s and up to the present day. The concern about the increasing trend of single-child families in rural settlements as well as in urban areas appeared in the various works of Hungarian writers and journalists throughout the previous century. The present paper intends to focus on the intellectual background to the public debates on the population issue, outlining the accounts of the interwar ‘village explorers’ briefly, and the way they are related to the pre-Second World War populist movement. Finally the reappearance of the debates between populists and non-populists of the 1970s is discussed, a debate that is still continuing.

  12. Decline in Physical Function and Risk for Elder Abuse Reported to Social Services in a Community-Dwelling Population of Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa; Evans, Denis

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Elder abuse is an important public health and human rights issue and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to examine the longitudinal association between decline in physical function and the risk for elder abuse. Design Prospective population-based study Setting Geographically defined community in Chicago. Participants Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP) is a population-based study (N=6,159), and we identified 143 CHAP participants who had elder abuse reported to social services agency from 1993–2010. Participants The primary independent variable was objectively assessed physical function using decline in physical performance testing (Tandem stand, measured walk and chair stand). Secondary independent variables were assessed using the decline in self-reported Katz, Nagi, and Rosow-Breslau scales. Outcomes were reported and confirmed elder abuse and specific subtypes of elder abuse (physical, psychological, caregiver neglect and financial exploitation). Logistic regression models were used to assess the association of decline in physical function measures and risk for elder abuse. Results After adjusting for potential confounders, every 1 point decline in physical performance testing (OR, 1.13(1.06–1.19)), Katz impairment (OR, 1.29(1.15–1.45)), Nagi impairment (OR, 1.30(1.13–1.49)) and Rosow Breslau impairment (OR, 1.42(1.15–1.74)) were associated with increased risk for elder abuse. Lowest tertiles of physical performance testing (OR, 4.92 (1.39–17.46), highest tertiles of Katz impairment (OR, 3.99 (2.18–7.31), Nagi impairment (OR, 2.37 (1.08–5.23), and Rosow Breslau impairment (2.85 (1.39–5.84) were associated with increased risk for elder abuse. Conclusion Decline in objectively assessed physical function and self-reported physical function are associated with increased risk for elder abuse. PMID:23002901

  13. Assay dependence of Brucella antibody prevalence in a declining Alaskan harbor seal (Phoca vitulina population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hueffer Karsten

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Brucella is a group of bacteria that causes brucellosis, which can affect population health and reproductive success in many marine mammals. We investigated the serological prevalence of antibodies against Brucella bacteria in a declining harbor seal population in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. Results Prevalence ranged from 16 to 74 percent for those tests detecting antibodies, indicating that harbor seals in Glacier Bay have been exposed to Brucella bacteria. However, the actual level of serological prevalence could not be determined because results were strongly assay-dependent. Conclusions This study reinforces the need to carefully consider assay choice when comparing different studies on the prevalence of anti–Brucella antibodies in pinnipeds and further highlights the need for species- or taxon-specific assay validation for both pathogen and host species.

  14. Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of

  15. Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging

  16. Is reduced benthic flux related to the Diporeia decline? Analysis of spring blooms and whiting events in Lake Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, James M.; Rudstam, Lars G.; Crabtree, Darran L.; Walsh, Maureen

    2013-01-01

    Benthic monitoring by USGS off the southern shore of Lake Ontario from October 1993 to October 1995 provides a detailed view of the early stages of the decline of the native amphipod Diporeia. A loss of the 1994 and 1995 year classes of Diporeia preceded the disappearance of the native amphipod at sites near Oswego and Rochester at depths from 55 to 130 m. In succeeding years, Diporeia populations continued to decline in Lake Ontario and were nearly extirpated by 2008. Explanations for Diporeia 's decline in the Great Lakes include several hypotheses often linked to the introduction and expansion of exotic zebra and quagga mussels (Dreissena sp.). We compare the timeline of the Diporeia decline in Lake Ontario with trends in two sources of organic matter to the sediments — spring diatom blooms and late summer whiting events. The 1994–95 decline of Diporeia coincided with localized dreissenid effects on phytoplankton in the nearshore and a year (April 1994 to May 1995) of decreased flux of organic carbon recorded by sediment traps moored offshore of Oswego. Later declines of profundal (> 90 m) Diporeia populations in 2003 were poorly associated with trends in spring algal blooms and late summer whiting events. Lake Ontario/Diporeia/Dreissena/remote sensing.

  17. Decline in admissions for childhood asthma, a 26-year period population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikalsen, Ingvild Bruun; Skeiseid, Liliane; Tveit, Line Merete; Engelsvold, David Hugo; Øymar, Knut

    2015-12-01

    The prevalence of childhood asthma has increased, although the rate of hospitalization for asthma seems to decrease. In Norway, the rate of hospital admission for childhood asthma from 1984 to 2000 increased. The aim of this study was to assess further trends in hospital admissions for childhood asthma up to 2010. A population-based study including children 1-13 yrs of age hospitalized for asthma during six periods from 1984/1985 to 2009/2010 in Rogaland, Norway, was performed. Medical records from 1536 admissions (1050 children) were studied; and gender, age, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, medications and symptoms were recorded. For all age groups, the rate of admissions per 10.000 increased from 20.1 in 1984/85 to 33.7 in 1989/90, but declined to 14.4 in 2009/2010. Rates were highest in boys (OR 1.87; 95% CI: 1.69, 2.09), younger age groups (OR 2.51; 2.38, 2.64) and decreased from 1984 to 2010 (OR 0.92; 0.88, 0.94). The rates of readmissions were higher than for primary admissions (OR 1.33; 1.19, 1.47). From 1984 to 2010, there was an increased use of inhaled corticosteroids prior to admission (6 to 51%) and started at discharge (7 to 37%), and systemic steroids given during admission (19 to 83%). There has been a substantial decline in the rate of hospital admissions for childhood asthma after 1989/1990, with major differences between age groups and genders. The decline could be due to improved care of children with asthma or a real reduction in asthma exacerbations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. An analysis of social consequences of rapid fertility decline in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z; Liu, L

    1988-12-01

    Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.

  19. Spatial behaviour of little owls (Athene noctua) in a declining low-density population in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunde, Peter; Thorup, Kasper; Jacobsen, Lars Bo

    2009-01-01

    Knowledge of a species' spatial behaviour is essential for understanding its behavioural ecology and a prerequisite to planning of conservation strategies. The little owl has shown a substantial decline in North-western Europe and is on the road of extinction in Denmark. To quantify relevant...... aspects of spatial behaviour in the last remaining Danish population, we followed 27 radio-tagged owls representing 14 territories during a period of 2 years. Mated owls were resident at nesting sites year-round with half of all nocturnal locations found within 125 m. Nightly distance from roosts peaked...

  20. Significant decline in case fatality after acute myocardial infarction in Denmark--a population-based study from 1994 to 2001

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildstrom, Steen Z; Rasmussen, Søren; Madsen, Mette

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: We evaluated trends in in-hospital case fatality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Denmark and analysed changes in the hospitalization rate for AMI. DESIGN: National population-based registries were used to identify patients (> or =30 years) who were admitted for their first AMI...... from 1994 to 2001. RESULTS: The annual relative decline in case-fatality rate was constant at 10.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.5-11.5%). The decline was similar for both genders at all ages. The hospitalization rate decreased from 1994 to 1999 at an annual average of 4.3% (95% CI 3.......4-5.1%). In 2000 and 2001 the average annual increase was 7-8%. CONCLUSION: The case-fatality rate after AMI declined significantly in Denmark, similar to other Western countries, but the level is still higher than that of the USA. The increasing hospitalization rate coincided with changes in risk factors...

  1. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... differences in daily recruitment and within-patch survival rates. Males were most abundant relative to females early in the season, indicating protandry. Total adult population size was small and showed dramatic variation between the two years, indicating how vulnerable the local population is to demographic extinction.

  2. TWO-DIMENSIONAL LOCALIZATION OF ATOMIC POPULATIONS IN FOUR-LEVEL QUANTUM SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Efremova

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with investigation of one aspect of fundamental problem of laser radiation interaction with the matter. This problem is spatial localization of atomic populations due to fields impact of few running waves. We are the first to propose in our work two–dimensional spatial localization of atomic populations in medium with tripod–like configuration of levels under the field influence of running waves only. Three running waves, propagating along one plane 120o angle-wise to each other, form the system of standing waves in this plane. Atomic populations can be localized in the field of these standing waves. Moreover, the degree of such localization can make up hundredth parts of the wavelength of the incident optical radiation. It is shown that an excitation of the central transition of the tripod-like system using a field of multidirectional linearly polarized running waves is the necessary condition of the population dependence from spatial coordinates in the XY – plane. The two–dimensional shapes that appear in this system can have very complicated structure such as “double – craters”.

  3. The ongoing decline of the breeding population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in The Netherlands is not explained by changes in adult survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roodbergen, Maja; Klok, Chris; Schekkerman, Hans

    2008-01-01

    The Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa is a characteristic breeding wader of wet grasslands in The Netherlands which has suffered a strong population decline since the 1960s. Low breeding success has been implicated as the main driver of this decline and here we examine whether changes in adult

  4. The ongoing decline of the breeding population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in The Netherlands is not explained by changes in adult survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roodbergen, M.; Klok, C.; Schekkerman, H.

    2008-01-01

    The Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa is a characteristic breeding wader of wet grasslands in the Netherlands which has suffered a strong population decline since the 1960s. Low breeding success has been implicated as the main driver of this decline and here we examine whether changes in adult

  5. The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

    2002-01-01

    This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

  6. Two-year decline in vision but not hearing is associated with memory decline in very old adults in a population-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anstey, K J; Luszcz, M A; Sanchez, L

    2001-01-01

    Recent cross-sectional research in cognitive aging has demonstrated a robust association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive performance in old age. However, the nature of the association is still unclear, particularly with respect to whether sensory and cognitive function are causally related. This study aimed to determine whether marked declines in performance on screening measures of either visual acuity or auditory thresholds have an effect on cognitive decline over 2 years. The sample from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing (n = 2,087) were assessed in 1992 and 1994 on measures of sensory and cognitive function as part of a larger clinical assessment. A quasi-experimental design involving comparison of extreme groups using repeated measures MANCOVA with age as a covariate was used. Group performance on measures of hearing, memory, verbal ability and processing speed declined significantly. Decline in visual acuity had a significant effect on memory decline, but not on decline in verbal ability or processing speed. Decline in hearing was not associated with decline in any cognitive domain. The common association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive function observed in cross-sectional studies appears to be disassociated in longitudinal studies. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel

  7. Extinction and recolonization of local populations on a growing shield volcano.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, H L; Lockwood, J P; Craddock, E M

    1990-01-01

    Volcanic action has resulted in the burial of the surfaces of Mauna Loa and Kilauea, Hawaii, by new lava flows at rates as high as 90% per 1000 years. Local populations of organisms on such volcanoes are continually being exterminated; survival of the species requires colonization of younger flows. Certain populations of the endemic Hawaiian species Drosophila silvestris exemplify such events in microcosm. Local populations at the base of an altitudinal cline were destroyed by two explosive eruptions within the last 2100 years. Natural recolonization restored the cline except for one young population that is genetically discordant with altitude. Images PMID:11607102

  8. Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

    1978-10-01

    This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

  9. Chronic lack of breeding by Galápagos Blue-footed Boobies and associated population decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Anchundia

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A survey of Blue-footed Boobies (Sula nebouxii excisa throughout the taxon's range in Galápagos, Ecuador found ~6400 adults, compared to a rough estimate of 20,000 in the 1960s. Few pairs bred in 2011-2013 and almost no birds in juvenile plumage were seen. Long-term data suggest that poor breeding began in 1998. Lack of recruitment over this period would mean that the current population is mostly elderly and experiencing senescent decline in performance. Anthropogenic effects such as introduced predators are unlikely to explain this decline because islands with and without such factors exhibited the same low breeding. The poor reproduction seems to be linked to diet. Previous work indicated that sardine and herring (Clupeidae supported successful breeding, but these fish were mostly absent from the diet during this study, except in the central part of Galápagos, where most breeding attempts during this study occurred. Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific sardine abundance has decreased dramatically by natural processes in the last 15 years, as part of a well-documented and apparently natural cycle. This cyclic change in abundance provides a possible explanation for the recent demographic changes in Blue-footed Boobies in Galápagos. Whether natural or anthropogenic in origin, the implications of senescent decline in breeding ability and survival are dramatic for this genetically distinct icon of biodiversity and ecotourism.

  10. Using Pollination Deficits to Infer Pollinator Declines: Can Theory Guide Us?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Thomson

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Authors examining pollinator declines frequently discuss pollination deficits, either as contemporary evidence that declines have occurred or as a possible negative consequence of future declines. Because pollination deficits can be measured in short-term studies, it would be useful if such studies could somehow replace painstaking documentation of insect population trends. I examine the legitimacy of this type of substitution with reference to evolutionary theory and natural plant populations. Operationally, pollination deficits are detected through pollen supplementation experiments. Although simple, these experiments are subject to subtleties of interpretation because of biases and nonlinear responses, which I discuss. Although it has been found that, in 62% of the natural populations studied, fruit or seed sets are at least sometimes limited by insufficient pollen, other research suggests that intact natural systems ought to arrive at an evolutionary equilibrium in which reproduction is limited equally by pollination and by maternal resources. Therefore, chronic severe pollination deficits may indicate that the pollinator service of a plant population has declined from some higher level in the past. However, there is no evidence of widespread declines, and, because of stochastic factors in nature, occasional shortfalls of pollination should be expected even at equilibrium. Although the effects of pollination deficits on plant population dynamics have been little studied, moderate declines in seed production may have relatively little effect on population growth rates because resources not expended on fruits and seeds may be reallocated to vegetative persistence or spread. It is therefore premature to conclude that pollinator declines are having strong effects on natural plant populations, but this mostly reflects a lack of data and is no cause for complacency. Theory must be supplemented by case studies; I give one example and

  11. History of pronghorn population monitoring, research, and management in Yellowstone National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Kim A.

    2002-01-01

    Pronghorn antelope in Yellowstone National Park (YNP) persist in a small population that historically has experienced recurrent, sometimes dramatic declines. They apparently are isolated from other pronghorns, depend partly on private lands for winter range, experience heavy predation of fawns, and concentrate during winter in a relatively small area, thereby increasing their vulnerability to factors like disease or locally extreme weather. Overall, the situation raises serious concerns about the long-term viability of this population. Although such concerns are not new, evidence of a dramatic population decline since 1991 and continued poor recruitment has created a renewed sense of urgency.

  12. Farmer's lung is now in decline.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Arya, A

    2012-02-03

    Farmer\\'s lung incidence in Ireland was constant until 1996, even though hay making methods were revolutionised in late 1980\\'s. We undertook this study to find out the incidence of farmer\\'s lung in Ireland from 1982-2002 and its correlation with rainfall and the effect of changing farm practices. The primary cases of farmer\\'s lung were identified from Hospital in Patients Enquiry (HIPE) unit of the national Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) Dublin. Rainfall data were obtained from Met Eireann whereas population, hay production and silage production were obtained from the Central Statistics Office, Dublin. As the farming population is in decline, we used the annual working unit (AWU), which reflects the true population at risk. An AWU is the equivalent of 1800 hours per farm worker per year. The incidence rates were constant from 1982-1996, but from 1997-2002 a marked decline was observed. There was strong positive correlation with hay production (r = 0.81) and strong negative correlation with silage production (r = -0.82). This study indicates that the incidence of farmer\\'s lung is now in decline.

  13. [The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhein, E

    1994-08-25

    The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

  14. A decomposition analysis of recent fertility decline in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubhaju, B; Shahidullah, M

    1990-12-01

    Over the period 1966-86, both the Fijian and Indian populations of Fiji demonstrated declines in fertility. Differentials in the decline were, however, noted with the total fertility rate (TFR) of the Fijian population declining by 26% over the period compared to a 50% decline in the Indian TFR. Moreover, rate declines were not smooth and consistent over the period. Faster fertility decline was experienced in the 1st decade for both groups, slowing in the 2nd decade for Indian women, and stabilizing among the Fijians. This paper decomposes these differential changes in fertility rate into marital structure and marital fertility. The study was conducted using data from the censuses of 1966, 1976, and 1986. For the period 1966-76, declines in marital fertility contributed most to overall TFR decline for both ethnic groups. Marital structure had a reducing effect upon TFR among Indian women in the 1st decaed, but not during the 2nd. Fijian women experienced an overall negative impact from marital structure. Contraception plays an important role in limiting fertility in these 2 populations. Accordingly, differentials in acceptance were noticed, the family planning acceptance rate for Indians being almost twice that of Fijians; 35.6% and 18.7%, respectively in 1986. Compared to Indian women, Fijian women were more literate, more economically active, had higher life expectancies, and experience lower infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, they are not motivated to use family planning. Motivational, cultural, religious, and behavioral factors are suggested as causal factors determining acceptance and use of modern contraceptive methods.

  15. Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

    2003-07-07

    A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.

  16. Browsing Patterns of White-Tailed Deer Following Increased Timber Harvest and a Decline in Population Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn M. Crimmins

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined browsing patterns of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus on a site in the central Appalachians that experienced a substantial (>50% reduction in deer population density and an increase in the amount of timber harvest since 2001. We sampled woody browse in and immediately adjacent to 12 clearcuts ranging in age from 0–5 years postharvest in summer 2007. Clearcut-interior areas had higher woody browse abundance and browsing rates than clearcut-edge or mature forest areas. Woody browse abundance was slightly higher within individual clearcuts than in 2001 at higher population densities and lower timber harvest rates. Overall browsing rates declined from approximately 17% in 2001 to less than 5% during our study, suggesting that the combination of deer population control, and increasing the amount of timber harvest across the landscape can reduce herbivory to levels that may not impede growth and survival of forest vegetation.

  17. Regular physical activity modifies smoking-related lung function decline and reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Aymerich, J; Lange, Peter; Benet, M

    2007-01-01

    RATIONALE: We have previously reported that regular physical activity reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation. We hypothesized that higher levels of regular physical activity could reduce the risk of COPD by modifying smoking-related lung function decline....... OBJECTIVE: To estimate the longitudinal association between regular physical activity and FEV(1) and FVC decline and COPD risk. METHODS: A population-based sample (n = 6,790) was recruited and assessed with respect to physical activity, smoking, lung function, and other covariates, in Copenhagen in 1981....../yr of FEV(1), P-for-trend = 0.006, and +2.6 and +7.7 ml/yr of FVC, P-for-trend function decline. Active smokers with moderate to high physical activity had...

  18. Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

    2007-05-15

    Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

  19. Failure to Respond to Food Resource Decline Has Catastrophic Consequences for Koalas in a High-Density Population in Southern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desley A Whisson

    Full Text Available Understanding the ability of koalas to respond to changes in their environment is critical for conservation of the species and their habitat. We monitored the behavioural response of koalas to declining food resources in manna gum (Eucalyptus viminalis woodland at Cape Otway, Victoria, Australia, from September 2011 to November 2013. Over this period, koala population density increased from 10.1 to 18.4 koalas.ha-1. As a result of the high browsing pressure of this population, manna gum canopy condition declined with 71.4% manna gum being completely or highly defoliated in September 2013. Despite declining food resources, radio collared koalas (N = 30 exhibited high fidelity to small ranges (0.4-1.2 ha. When trees became severely defoliated in September 2013, koalas moved relatively short distances from their former ranges (mean predicted change in range centroid = 144 m and remained in areas of 0.9 to 1.0 ha. This was despite the high connectivity of most manna gum woodland, and close proximity of the study site (< 3 km to the contiguous mixed forest of the Great Otway National Park. Limited movement had catastrophic consequences for koalas with 71% (15/21 of radio collared koalas dying from starvation or being euthanased due to their poor condition between September and November 2013.

  20. Effect of Early Referral to Specialist in Dementia on Institutionalization and Functional Decline: Findings from a Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimouguet, Clément; Le-Goff, Mélanie; Rizzuto, Debora; Berr, Claudine; Leffondré, Karen; Pérès, Karine; Dartigues, Jean FranÇois; Helmer, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Although early diagnosis has been hypothesized to benefit both patients and caregivers, until now studies evaluating the effect of early dementia diagnosis are lacking. To investigate the influence of early specialist referral for dementia on the risk of institutionalization and functional decline in Activity of Daily Living (ADL). Incident dementia cases were screened in a prospective population-based cohort, the Three-City Study, and initial specialist consultation for cognitive complaint was assessed at dementia diagnosis. Proportional hazard regression and illness-death models were used to test the association between specialist referral and, respectively, institutionalization and functional decline. Only one third of the incident individuals with dementia had consulted a specialist for cognitive problems early (36%). After adjustment on potential confounders (including cognitive and functional decline) and competing risk of death, participants who had consulted a specialist early in the disease course presented a higher rate of being institutionalized than those who did not (Hazard Ratio = 2.00, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.09- 3.64). But early specialist referral was not associated with further functional decline (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.71- 1.67). Early specialist referral in dementia is associated with increased risk of institutionalization but not with functional decline in ADL. These findings suggest that early care referral in dementia may be a marker of concern for patients and/or caregivers; subsequent medical and social care could be suboptimal or inappropriate to allow patients to stay longer at home.

  1. When is a species declining? Optimizing survey effort to detect population changes in reptiles.

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    David Sewell

    Full Text Available Biodiversity monitoring programs need to be designed so that population changes can be detected reliably. This can be problematical for species that are cryptic and have imperfect detection. We used occupancy modeling and power analysis to optimize the survey design for reptile monitoring programs in the UK. Surveys were carried out six times a year in 2009-2010 at multiple sites. Four out of the six species--grass snake, adder, common lizard, slow-worm -were encountered during every survey from March-September. The exceptions were the two rarest species--sand lizard and smooth snake--which were not encountered in July 2009 and March 2010 respectively. The most frequently encountered and most easily detected species was the slow-worm. For the four widespread reptile species in the UK, three to four survey visits that used a combination of directed transect walks and artificial cover objects resulted in 95% certainty that a species would be detected if present. Using artificial cover objects was an effective detection method for most species, considerably increased the detection rate of some, and reduced misidentifications. To achieve an 85% power to detect a decline in any of the four widespread species when the true decline is 15%, three surveys at a total of 886 sampling sites, or four surveys at a total of 688 sites would be required. The sampling effort needed reduces to 212 sites surveyed three times, or 167 sites surveyed four times, if the target is to detect a true decline of 30% with the same power. The results obtained can be used to refine reptile survey protocols in the UK and elsewhere. On a wider scale, the occupancy study design approach can be used to optimize survey effort and help set targets for conservation outcomes for regional or national biodiversity assessments.

  2. Can individual and social patterns of resource use buffer animal populations against resource decline?

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    Sam C Banks

    Full Text Available Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing, as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater's possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1:1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species' biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance.

  3. What we know and don't know about amphibian declines in the West

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corn, Paul Stephen

    1994-01-01

    The problem of declining amphibian species is thought to be particularly acute in western North America, but there are many gaps in our knowledge. Although several declines have been well-documented, other declines are anecdotal or hypothesized. Most documented declines are of ranid frogs or toads (Bufo). Species from montane habitats and those occurring in California have been best studied. Status of many desert species is unknown. Habitat destruction and introduced predators are the most common threats to amphibian populations. Some declines may represent natural variation in population size. Causes have not been determined for several cases where common species have declined over large areas. There are important considerations for ecosystem management, whether changes in amphibian populations are natural or caused by human activities. Causes for declines must be known so that management can be prescribed (or proscribed) to eliminate or minimize these causes. The natural variability of amphibian population numbers and the complexity of metapopulation structure emphasize the necessity of considering multiple temporal and spatial scales in ecosystem management. The decline of amphibian species throughout the world has received considerable recent attention (e.g., Blaustein and Wake 1990, Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Yoffe 1992). Much of this attention derives from a workshop held in February, 1990 on declining amphibians sponsored by the National Research Council Board (NRC) on Biology in Irvine, California (Barinaga 1990, Borchelt 1990). Because of media attention in the aftermath of this conference, it is a popular perception that amphibian declines are a new phenomenon that herpetologists have been slow to recognize (Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Quammen 1993). However, concern about amphibian populations in the United States dates back over 20 years. Beginning in the 1960s, a large, well-documented decline of northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) occurred in the

  4. Age-related olfactory decline is associated with the BDNF val66met polymorphism: evidence from a population-based study

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    Margareta Hedner

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the effect of the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF val66met polymorphism on change in olfactory function in a large scale, longitudinal population-based sample (n=836. The subjects were tested on a 13 item force-choice odor identification test on two test occasions over a 5-year-interval. Sex, education, health-related factors, and semantic ability were controlled for in the statistical analyses. Results showed an interaction effect of age and BDNF val66met on olfactory change, such that the magnitude of olfactory decline in the older age cohort (70-90 years old at baseline was larger for the val homozygote carriers than for the met carriers. The older met carriers did not display larger age-related decline in olfactory function compared to the younger group. The BDNF val66met polymorphism did not affect the rate of decline in the younger age cohort (45-65 years. The findings are discussed in the light of the proposed roles of BDNF in neural development and maintenance.

  5. Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidre, K.L.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Bodkin, James L.; Monson, Daniel H.; Schneider, K.

    2006-01-01

    1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967–71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992–97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves.2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12–18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10–11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves.3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1–2 years earlier in the 1990s.4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation.5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lxfunction) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations).6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at

  6. Odorous house ants (Tapinoma sessile as back-seat drivers of localized ant decline in urban habitats.

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    Adam Salyer

    Full Text Available Invasive species and habitat disturbance threaten biodiversity worldwide by modifying ecosystem performance and displacing native organisms. Similar homogenization impacts manifest locally when urbanization forces native species to relocate or reinvade perpetually altered habitat. This study investigated correlations between ant richness and abundance in response to urbanization and the nearby presence of invasive ant species, odorous house ants (Tapinoma sessile, within its native region. Surveying localized ant composition within natural, semi-natural, and urban habitat supported efforts to determine whether T. sessile appear to be primary (drivers threats as instigators or secondary (passengers threats as inheritors of indigenous ant decline. Sampling 180 sites, evenly split between all habitats with and without T. sessile present, yielded 45 total species. Although urbanization and T. sessile presence factors were significantly linked to ant decline, their interaction correlated to the greatest reduction of total ant richness (74% and abundance (81%. Total richness appeared to decrease from 27 species to 18 when natural habitat is urbanized and from 18 species to 7 with T. sessile present in urban plots. Odorous house ant presence minimally influenced ant communities within natural and semi-natural habitat, highlighting the importance of habitat alteration and T. sessile presence interactions. Results suggest urbanization releases T. sessile from unknown constraints by decreasing ant richness and competition. Within urban environment, T. sessile are pre-adapted to quickly exploit new resources and grow to supercolony strength wherein T. sessile drive adjacent biodiversity loss. Odorous house ants act as passengers and drivers of ecological change throughout different phases of urban 'invasion'. This progression through surviving habitat alteration, exploiting new resources, thriving, and further reducing interspecific competition supports a

  7. Significant population of Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus population in Morocco has undergone a marked decline since the 1980s to the point of nearing local extinction in the twenty-first century. A field study of some possible sites for Egyptian Vultures was carried out over six days during June 2014 in the Middle Atlas Mountains, ...

  8. The catastrophic decline of the Sumatran rhino (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in Sabah: Historic exploitation, reduced female reproductive performance and population viability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kretzschmar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The reasons for catastrophic declines of Sumatran rhinos are far from clear and data necessary to improve decisions for conservation management are often lacking. We reviewed literature and assembled a comprehensive data set on surveys of the Sumatran rhino subspecies (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in the Malaysian state of Sabah on Borneo to chart the historical development of the population in Sabah and its exploitation until the present day. We fitted resource selection functions to identify habitat features preferred by a remnant population of rhinos living in the Tabin Wildlife Reserve in Sabah, and ran a series of population viability analyses (PVAs to extract the key demographic parameters most likely to affect population dynamics. We show that as preferred habitat, the individuals in the reserve were most likely encountered in elevated areas away from roads, in close distance to mud-volcanoes, with a low presence of human trespassers and a wallow on site, and within a neighbourhood of dense forest and grassland patches preferably on Fluvisols and Acrisols. Our population viability analyses identified the percentage of breeding females and female lifetime reproductive period as the crucial parameters driving population dynamics, in combination with total protection even moderate improvements could elevate population viability substantially. The analysis also indicates that unrestrained hunting between 1930 and 1950 drastically reduced the historical rhino population in Sabah and that the remnant population could be rescued by combining the effort of total protection and stimulation of breeding activity. Based on our results, we recommend to translocate isolated reproductively healthy individuals to protected locations and to undertake measures to maximise conceptions, or running state-of-the-art reproductive management with assisted reproduction techniques. Our study demonstrates that a judicious combination of techniques can do

  9. Local Recurrence in Women With Stage I Breast Cancer: Declining Rates Over Time in a Large, Population-Based Cohort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canavan, Joycelin; Truong, Pauline T.; Smith, Sally L.; Lu, Linghong; Lesperance, Mary; Olivotto, Ivo A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate whether local recurrence (LR) risk has changed over time among women with stage I breast cancer treated with breast-conserving therapy. Methods and Materials: Subjects were 5974 women aged ≥50 years diagnosis with pT1N0 breast cancer from 1989 to 2006, treated with breast-conserving surgery and radiation therapy. Clinicopathologic characteristics, treatment, and LR outcomes were compared among 4 cohorts stratified by year of diagnosis: 1989 to 1993 (n=1077), 1994 to 1998 (n=1633), 1999 to 2002 (n=1622), and 2003 to 2006 (n=1642). Multivariable analysis was performed, with year of diagnosis as a continuous variable. Results: Median follow-up time was 8.6 years. Among patients diagnosed in 1989 to 1993, 1994 to 1998, 1999 to 2002, and 2003 to 2006, the proportions of grade 1 tumors increased (16% vs 29% vs 40% vs 39%, respectively, P<.001). Surgical margin clearance rates increased from 82% to 93% to 95% and 88%, respectively (P<.001). Over time, the proportions of unknown estrogen receptor (ER) status decreased (29% vs 10% vs 1.2% vs 0.5%, respectively, P<.001), whereas ER-positive tumors increased (56% vs 77% vs 86% vs 86%, respectively, P<.001). Hormone therapy use increased (23% vs 23% vs 62% vs 73%, respectively, P<.001), and chemotherapy use increased (2% vs 5% vs 10% vs 13%, respectively, P<.001). The 5-year cumulative incidence rates of LR over the 4 time periods were 2.8% vs 1.7% vs 0.9% vs 0.8%, respectively (Gray's test, P<.001). On competing risk multivariable analysis, year of diagnosis was significantly associated with decreased LR (hazard ratio, 0.92 per year, P=.0003). Relative to grade 1 histology, grades 2, 3, and unknown were associated with increased LR. Hormone therapy use was associated with reduced LR. Conclusion: Significant changes in the multimodality management of stage I breast cancer have occurred over the past 2 decades. More favorable-risk tumors were diagnosed, and margin clearance and systemic therapy use

  10. Local Recurrence in Women With Stage I Breast Cancer: Declining Rates Over Time in a Large, Population-Based Cohort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canavan, Joycelin, E-mail: canavanjoycelin@gmail.com [Radiation Therapy Program and Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, University of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Truong, Pauline T.; Smith, Sally L. [Radiation Therapy Program and Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, University of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Lu, Linghong; Lesperance, Mary [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Olivotto, Ivo A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tom Baker Cancer Centre, University of Calgary (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate whether local recurrence (LR) risk has changed over time among women with stage I breast cancer treated with breast-conserving therapy. Methods and Materials: Subjects were 5974 women aged ≥50 years diagnosis with pT1N0 breast cancer from 1989 to 2006, treated with breast-conserving surgery and radiation therapy. Clinicopathologic characteristics, treatment, and LR outcomes were compared among 4 cohorts stratified by year of diagnosis: 1989 to 1993 (n=1077), 1994 to 1998 (n=1633), 1999 to 2002 (n=1622), and 2003 to 2006 (n=1642). Multivariable analysis was performed, with year of diagnosis as a continuous variable. Results: Median follow-up time was 8.6 years. Among patients diagnosed in 1989 to 1993, 1994 to 1998, 1999 to 2002, and 2003 to 2006, the proportions of grade 1 tumors increased (16% vs 29% vs 40% vs 39%, respectively, P<.001). Surgical margin clearance rates increased from 82% to 93% to 95% and 88%, respectively (P<.001). Over time, the proportions of unknown estrogen receptor (ER) status decreased (29% vs 10% vs 1.2% vs 0.5%, respectively, P<.001), whereas ER-positive tumors increased (56% vs 77% vs 86% vs 86%, respectively, P<.001). Hormone therapy use increased (23% vs 23% vs 62% vs 73%, respectively, P<.001), and chemotherapy use increased (2% vs 5% vs 10% vs 13%, respectively, P<.001). The 5-year cumulative incidence rates of LR over the 4 time periods were 2.8% vs 1.7% vs 0.9% vs 0.8%, respectively (Gray's test, P<.001). On competing risk multivariable analysis, year of diagnosis was significantly associated with decreased LR (hazard ratio, 0.92 per year, P=.0003). Relative to grade 1 histology, grades 2, 3, and unknown were associated with increased LR. Hormone therapy use was associated with reduced LR. Conclusion: Significant changes in the multimodality management of stage I breast cancer have occurred over the past 2 decades. More favorable-risk tumors were diagnosed, and margin clearance and systemic therapy use

  11. Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the Intermountain Province of the Columbia Basin, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wielgus, Robert B.; Shipley, Lisa

    2002-07-01

    Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the subbasins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are not ranked as target species and are believed to be increasing throughout the basin because of habitat changes brought about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated ''press'' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM subbasins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend

  12. Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the IM Province of the Columbia Basin, Annual Report 2002-2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wielgus, Robert; Shipley, Lisa; Myers, Woodrow

    2003-09-01

    Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the sub basins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are believed to be increasing throughout the basin because of habitat changes brought about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated 'press' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM sub basins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend indices. Predation rates and population growth rates

  13. Factors associated with the catastrophic decline of a cloudforest frog fauna in Guatemala

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.R Mendelson III

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Comparison of recent and historical surveys of frog populations in cloudforest habitat in Sierra de las Minas,Guatemala,indicated population declines and local extirpation of several species.Pathological exams of diseased tadpoles indicated infection by amphibian chytridiomycosis. The local habitat has been severely altered by recent establishment of large-scale leatherleaf fern production.Analysis of water chemistry at our study site suggested increased nitrogenation associated with the leatherleaf industry.Rev.Biol.Trop.52(4:991-1000. Epub 2005 Jun 24.Una comparación entre un inventario anterior y otro reciente de poblaciones de ranas de bosque nublado en la Sierra de Las Minas de Guatemala demostró disminuciones poblacionales y ausencia localizada de varias especies.El examen patológico de un renacuajo muerto indicó infección por un hongo quítrido propio de los anfibios.El hábitat local ha sido gravemente alterado por el establecimiento reciente de producción a gran escala de helechos ornamentales.El análisis químico del agua en el área de estudio señaló un aumento en nitrogenación asociado al cultivo de helechos.

  14. Does Child Labor Decline with Improving Economic Status?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, Eric V.

    2005-01-01

    The rapid economic growth of Vietnam provides an interesting insight into the sharp decline in child labor. A study of the rising economic status of the population across Vietnam shows that children returned to school or stopped working as their family incomes grew. The decline in child labor is steep in poor households as they emerged from…

  15. Liberia: local politics, state building and reintegration of populations

    OpenAIRE

    Jairo Munive

    2013-01-01

    Interventions aiming to assist IDPs and refugees returning homein fragile states would do well to take note of the local political and economic contexts in the aftermath of war, because these deeplyaffect the reintegration of war-affected populations.

  16. The significance and role of local self-governments in the population policy of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavrilović Ana

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Population should be in the central focus of local community institutions and the local community may constitute its population policy which will supplement state population policy measures, considering the local specific various traditions, values and models of living. The paper's basic goal is to critically perceive the characteristics, significance and role of local self-governments in the current population policy of Serbia. Social situation and social policy characteristics in Serbia are analyzed in the context of the population policy. It is pointed out that poverty, unemployment, the economic crisis, the process of privatization, the issue of system decentralization and social expectations of the population, as current expressions of transition, all have a consequence on the demographic development and population policy. A critical estimation of the activities in the field of population policies which are carried out by local and provincial self-governments in Serbia in the last decade are brought into focus, with a special review to the activities of provincial and local governments in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina. As a result of the analysis it is pointed out that the population and social policy measures have been separated since the year 2000 and that they have been directed only to stimulating births and not child raising and that solutions regarding maternity leave brought improvements, however shortened maternity leave for the third child. The new conception of the population policy brought a whole series of restrictions such as: suspension of aid for newborn essentials; discontinuance of the right to maternity allowance; abolishing of compensation for preschool expenses for the third child; children’s allowance lost its population measures character along with considerable tightening of the census and decreasing of amount; the activities of preschool facilities have been reduced only to an educational function, and the

  17. Effects of white-nose syndrome on regional population patterns of 3 hibernating bat species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingersoll, Thomas E; Sewall, Brent J; Amelon, Sybill K

    2016-10-01

    Hibernating bats have undergone severe recent declines across the eastern United States, but the cause of these regional-scale declines has not been systematically evaluated. We assessed the influence of white-nose syndrome (an emerging bat disease caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans, formerly Geomyces destructans) on large-scale, long-term population patterns in the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), the northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis), and the tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). We modeled population trajectories for each species on the basis of an extensive data set of winter hibernacula counts of more than 1 million individual bats from a 4-state region over 13 years and with data on locations of hibernacula and first detections of white-nose syndrome at each hibernaculum. We used generalized additive mixed models to determine population change relative to expectations, that is, how population trajectories differed with a colony's infection status, how trajectories differed with distance from the point of introduction of white-nose syndrome, and whether declines were concordant with first local observation of the disease. Population trajectories in all species met at least one of the 3 expectations, but none met all 3. Our results suggest, therefore, that white-nose syndrome has affected regional populations differently than was previously understood and has not been the sole cause of declines. Specifically, our results suggest that in some areas and species, threats other than white-nose syndrome are also contributing to population declines, declines linked to white-nose syndrome have spread across large geographic areas with unexpected speed, and the disease or other threats led to declines in bat populations for years prior to disease detection. Effective conservation will require further research to mitigate impacts of white-nose syndrome, renewed attention to other threats to bats, and improved surveillance efforts to ensure

  18. Declining Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater populations are associated with landscape-specific reductions in brood parasitism and increases in songbird productivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W Andrew Cox

    Full Text Available Many songbird species have experienced significant population declines, partly because of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater, which is positively associated with increasing landscape forest cover in the midwestern United States. However, cowbirds are also experiencing long-term population declines, which should reduce parasitism pressure and thus increase productivity of host species. We used 20 years of nest monitoring data from five sites in Missouri across a gradient of landscape forest cover to assess temporal trends in the rate and intensity of brood parasitism for Acadian Flycatchers (Empidonax virescens, Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea, and Northern Cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis. We evaluated whether there were concomitant changes in fledging brood size, nest survival, a combination of the two metrics (i.e., host young produced per nest attempt, and whether such changes were more substantial with decreasing landscape forest cover. Parasitism rates and intensities declined substantially during 1991-2010. Fledging brood size and nest survival rates were positively associated with landscape forest cover, confirming the fragmentation hypothesis for Midwest forest birds. Declining parasitism rates were associated with increased fledging brood sizes, with more pronounced increases as landscape forest cover decreased. Nest survival increased insubstantially across time during laying and incubation, but not during the nestling stage. The best predictor of nest survival was parasitism status, with parasitized nests surviving at lower rates than unparasitized nests. Overall, productivity increased during 1991-2010, with more pronounced increases associated with lower levels of landscape forest cover. The negative effects of cowbirds on nest survival in addition to fledging brood size in less forested landscapes suggest that cowbirds may be a primary cause of forest fragmentation effects on songbird productivity in the

  19. Population Policy Adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Interplay of Global and Local Forces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robinson Rachel Sullivan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Sub-Saharan African countries have the highest population growth rates in the world, and are also the poorest. In response to a variety of global and local forces, during the 1980s and 1990s two thirds of sub- Saharan African countries adopted national population policies to reduce population growth. Drawing from existing research and using the texts of population policies to illustrate key points, this article summarises the factors that drove population policy adoption in the region. Globally, powerful donors with significant leverage promoted population policies as a solution to lagging socioeconomic development while international organizations spread norms about women’s rights and reproductive health. Locally, technocrats working within relevant ministries backed efforts to increase contraceptive prevalence, and population policies furthered political projects unrelated to population. The interplay of global and local forces led to governments adopting population policies. Ultimately, continued high desired fertility and limited implementation capacity have prevented population policies from significantly lowering fertility, but these policies have likely increased the availability of contraception, created important discursive space related to gender and sexuality, and provided countries with an opportunity to test procedures and approaches for policy-making on sensitive issues.

  20. Liberia: local politics, state building and reintegration of populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jairo Munive

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Interventions aiming to assist IDPs and refugees returning homein fragile states would do well to take note of the local political and economic contexts in the aftermath of war, because these deeplyaffect the reintegration of war-affected populations.

  1. Kinship and the decline of fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y

    1996-01-01

    China's family planning and population control policies, together with the move toward a more market-oriented economy since the 1980s, have led to significant change in people's reproductive values and behavior and a substantial decline in fertility. Traditional kinship in China, its terminology, and the impact of fertility decline on kinship in China and Chinese society are discussed. The decline in fertility is affecting or will affect China's kinship system, the corresponding pattern of terminology, and the social structure. In the more market-oriented economy which has been developing in China, the simplification of the kinship system will help change the structure of Chinese society and weaken the traditional patriarchal culture. A more individualized, contractualized social structure and relationships will result.

  2. Radiation doses to local populations near nuclear weapons test sites worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Steven L; Bouville, André

    2002-05-01

    Nuclear weapons testing was conducted in the atmosphere at numerous sites worldwide between 1946 and 1980, which resulted in exposures to local populations as a consequence of fallout of radioactive debris. The nuclear tests were conducted by five nations (United States, Soviet Union, United Kingdom, France, and China) primarily at 16 sites. The 16 testing sites, located in nine different countries on five continents (plus Oceania) contributed nearly all of the radioactive materials released to the environment by atmospheric testing; only small amounts were released at a fewother minor testing sites. The 16 sites discussed here are Nevada Test Site, USA (North American continent), Bikini and Enewetak, Marshall Islands (Oceania); Johnston Island, USA (Oceania), Christmas and Malden Island, Kiribati (Oceania); Emu Field, Maralinga, and Monte Bello Islands, Australia (Australian continent); Mururoa and Fangataufa, French Polynesia (Oceania), Reggane, Algeria (Africa), Novaya Zemlya and Kapustin Yar, Russia (Europe), Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan (Asia), and Lop Nor, China (Asia). There were large differences in the numbers of tests conducted at each location and in the total explosive yields. Those factors, as well as differences in population density, lifestyle, environment, and climate at each site, led to large differences in the doses received by local populations. In general, the tests conducted earliest led to the highest individual and population exposures, although the amount of information available for a few of these sites is insufficient to provide any detailed evaluation of radiation exposures. The most comprehensive information for any site is for the Nevada Test Site. The disparities in available information add difficulty to determining the radiation exposures of local populations at each site. It is the goal of this paper to summarize the available information on external and internal doses received by the public living in the regions near each of the

  3. Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Faaborg; W. J. Arendt; J. D. Toms; K. M. Dugger; W. A. Cox; M. Canals Mora

    2013-01-01

    Despite concern expressed two decades ago, there has been little recent discussion about continuing declines of migrant bird populations. Monitoring efforts have been focused almost exclusively on the breeding grounds. We describe the long-term decline of a winter-resident bird population in Guanica Commonwealth Forest, Puerto Rico, one of the last remaining tracts of...

  4. [Historic record of Gastrotheca ovifera (Anura: Hemiphractidae): decline evidence in Venezuelan coastal cloud forests].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valera-Leal, Javier; Acevedo, Aldemar; Pérez-Sánchez, Antonio; Vega, Jorge; Manzanilla, Jesús

    2011-03-01

    G. ovifera is a marsupial frog of the cloud and riparian forest from Western and Litoral sections of the Venezuelan Cordillera de la Costa (820-2 000m). This amphibian is considered as an endangered species by the IUCN Species Red List, due to its population decline in pristine and well preserved environments. This conservation status is based on anecdotic interpretations. We collected disperse data from museum records (national and international) and explored the possible association between collection records and precipitation data available for the Henri Pittier National Park (PNHP). Likewise, we carried out a systematic population monitoring of G. ovifera in historic and additional localities among the cloud forest of Rancho Grande, PNHP. We found 106 individuals in 11 zoological collections deposited during 1929-2007. After an effort of 646 hours/person we did not detect G. ovifera individuals in the evaluated localities; as well as no statistical significant associations between the annual precipitation average and the historic records of the species during 1941-1997 period (r = -0.054, p = 0.820, n = 19). We discussed the distribution, fluctuation and population changes of this species, analyzing it conservation status.

  5. Gender differences in age-related decline in regional cerebral glucose metabolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Seong Ae; Cho, Sang Soo; Yoon, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun Soo; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Sun

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we investigated gender differences in age-related declines in regional cerebral glucose metabolism using FDG-PET in a large population sample with a broad age range. 230 healthy subjects (90 male; age: 34-80 y, 140 females; age: 33-82 y) participated. Correlation maps showing age related declines in glucose uptake were created separately for each gender in SPM2. Using population-based probabilistic volume of interests (VOIs), VOIs were defined for the regions showing significant decline with aging. Age related declines were separately assessed within each age range using analysis of covariate in SPSS 13.0. In the total population without gender effect, age-related negative correlation of glucose metabolism was found in the bilateral inferior frontal gyri, bilateral caudate, bilateral thalamus, left insula, left superior frontal gyrus, left uncus, right superior temporal gyrus, right medial frontal gyrus, right parahippocampal gyrus, right anterior cingulate gyrus (P < 0.001 corrected, extent threshold k = 100). 14 VOIs values of brain regions were calculated based on this negative correlation results. The rate of decline across all defined VOIs assessed in the age category of 'more than 70' referenced to the category of '30- 39years' were 7.85% in the entire sample; 7.62% in male and 8.09% in female. Detailed analyses of declines in each age range showed separable patterns of declines across gender. In males, greater decline was observed after the age 60 (20.45%) than the ages of 30 and 50(7.98%). Whereas in females, greater declines were found in age 60s (20.15%) compared to 50s, and in 40(14.84%) compared to 30s. Age-related decline in cerebral glucose metabolism was found in both genders. We further observed that males show a relatively constant pattern of decline across a life span; whereas, females show a pattern of steep changes aging to 60s and to 40s, which may be related to changes in sex hormone levels after menopause

  6. Gender differences in age-related decline in regional cerebral glucose metabolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Seong Ae; Cho, Sang Soo; Yoon, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun Soo; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Sun [Seoul National Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    In this study, we investigated gender differences in age-related declines in regional cerebral glucose metabolism using FDG-PET in a large population sample with a broad age range. 230 healthy subjects (90 male; age: 34-80 y, 140 females; age: 33-82 y) participated. Correlation maps showing age related declines in glucose uptake were created separately for each gender in SPM2. Using population-based probabilistic volume of interests (VOIs), VOIs were defined for the regions showing significant decline with aging. Age related declines were separately assessed within each age range using analysis of covariate in SPSS 13.0. In the total population without gender effect, age-related negative correlation of glucose metabolism was found in the bilateral inferior frontal gyri, bilateral caudate, bilateral thalamus, left insula, left superior frontal gyrus, left uncus, right superior temporal gyrus, right medial frontal gyrus, right parahippocampal gyrus, right anterior cingulate gyrus (P < 0.001 corrected, extent threshold k = 100). 14 VOIs values of brain regions were calculated based on this negative correlation results. The rate of decline across all defined VOIs assessed in the age category of 'more than 70' referenced to the category of '30- 39years' were 7.85% in the entire sample; 7.62% in male and 8.09% in female. Detailed analyses of declines in each age range showed separable patterns of declines across gender. In males, greater decline was observed after the age 60 (20.45%) than the ages of 30 and 50(7.98%). Whereas in females, greater declines were found in age 60s (20.15%) compared to 50s, and in 40(14.84%) compared to 30s. Age-related decline in cerebral glucose metabolism was found in both genders. We further observed that males show a relatively constant pattern of decline across a life span; whereas, females show a pattern of steep changes aging to 60s and to 40s, which may be related to changes in sex hormone levels after menopause.

  7. Both life-history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range-wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Megan L; Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

    2018-04-01

    Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species-wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life-history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species-wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species' range-not only those at the trailing range edge-could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species' latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade-off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species' ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest

  8. The impact of birth weight on the level of lung function and lung function decline in the general adult population. The Inter99 study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumann, Sophie; Godtfredsen, Nina Skavlan; Lange, Peter

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an association between low birth weight and low adult lung function, but findings have not been consistent. The aim of this study was to investigate whether birth weight is associated with both the level and the decline in adult lung function in general...... population. METHODS: The Danish Inter99 study is a population-based intervention study in adults aged 30-60 years, providing information on birth weight and lung function on 4428 participants. Of these, 2931 participants performed spirometry at baseline and at five-year follow-up. Multiple linear regression...... models were used to examine the association between birth weight and forced expiratory volume in first second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) and age-related decline in these variables. Analyses were conducted stepwise including sex, age, adult height, abdominal circumference, birth height, mother...

  9. Population Growth and National Population Policy of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thukral, A. K.; Singh, B. P.

    2008-01-01

    The population growth in India may overtake China by the year 2030. The National Population Policy of India targets population stabilization in India by the year 2045. The present paper carries out objective analysis of the population growth in India in terms of change in specific growth. At the present rate of specific growth rate decline, the population by the end of the century will be 2.49 billion. For the population to achieve zero growth by the year 2045, a decline in specific growth rate will have to be achieved at the rate of 0.000428 per year.

  10. Properties of global- and local-ancestry adjustments in genetic association tests in admixed populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Eden R; Tunc, Ilker; Liu, Zhi; Slifer, Susan H; Beecham, Ashley H; Beecham, Gary W

    2018-03-01

    Population substructure can lead to confounding in tests for genetic association, and failure to adjust properly can result in spurious findings. Here we address this issue of confounding by considering the impact of global ancestry (average ancestry across the genome) and local ancestry (ancestry at a specific chromosomal location) on regression parameters and relative power in ancestry-adjusted and -unadjusted models. We examine theoretical expectations under different scenarios for population substructure; applying different regression models, verifying and generalizing using simulations, and exploring the findings in real-world admixed populations. We show that admixture does not lead to confounding when the trait locus is tested directly in a single admixed population. However, if there is more complex population structure or a marker locus in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with the trait locus is tested, both global and local ancestry can be confounders. Additionally, we show the genotype parameters of adjusted and unadjusted models all provide tests for LD between the marker and trait locus, but in different contexts. The local ancestry adjusted model tests for LD in the ancestral populations, while tests using the unadjusted and the global ancestry adjusted models depend on LD in the admixed population(s), which may be enriched due to different ancestral allele frequencies. Practically, this implies that global-ancestry adjustment should be used for screening, but local-ancestry adjustment may better inform fine mapping and provide better effect estimates at trait loci. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  11. The role of local adaptation in shaping fish-mussel coevolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Douda, Karel; Liu, Huan-Zhang; Yu, Dan

    2017-01-01

    impact on the persistence of local populations. Bivalves of the order Unionida (freshwater mussels) are a functionally important but declining group of affiliate species, which are dependent on freshwater fish to host their parasitic larvae. The role of local adaptations and host fish resistance......1. The survival of affiliate (dependent) species in a changing environment is determined by the interactions between the affiliate species and their available hosts. However, the patterns of spatial and temporal changes in host compatibility are often unknown despite host shifts having direct...... associated bitterling fishes was low in its native range (with ancient sympatry). In areas of recent sympatry (non-native S.woodiana range in Europe), S.woodiana glochidia were demonstrated to readily parasitise local, evolutionarily naive bitterling species at high density.4. The results of a population...

  12. Family planning and fertility decline: a global overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabah, L

    1977-01-01

    Family planning and development policy concerns are not incompatible. The emphasis on development policies at the 1974 World Population Conference at Bucharest did not mean that world governments had lost interest in the population and family planning issue. Although worldwide attitudes toward family planning have become more and more favorable, this has not yet meant great impact on world demographic trends. The "inertia factor," i.e., the effects of high birthrates in the previous generation, will camouflage declining birthrates for some time to come. The trend of fertility reduction which was perceptible only among small populations a few years ago is also becoming manifest in larger Third World countries. Mortality rate declines have slowed down but there is no rising mortality due to starvation in any country. At present, food demand exceeds availability for 80% of the Third World population. It is predicted that the food deficit will increase 70% by the year 2000.

  13. Genetic diversity and landscape genetic structure of otter (Lutra lutra) populations in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mucci, Nadia; Arrendal, Johanna; Ansorge, Hermann

    2010-01-01

    Eurasian otter populations strongly declined and partially disappeared due to global and local causes (habitat destruction, water pollution, human persecution) in parts of their continental range. Conservation strategies, based on reintroduction projects or restoration of dispersal corridors...... and landscape genetic analyses however indicate that local populations are genetically differentiated, perhaps as consequence of post-glacial demographic fluctuations and recent isolation. These results delineate a framework that should be used for implementing conservation programs in Europe, particularly...

  14. Reproductive characteristics and population decline of four species of skate (Rajidae) off the eastern coast of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcphie, R P; Campana, S E

    2009-07-01

    Four of the most common species of skate (Rajidae) were studied off eastern Canada to determine if their reproductive characteristics were linked to their population trajectories. The fecundity of the winter skate Leucoraja ocellata, the little skate Leucoraja erinacea, the thorny skate Amblyraja radiata and the smooth skate Malacoraja senta averaged between 41 and 56 egg cases per year for each species. For all species but L. ocellata, males matured at larger sizes and at later ages than females. Theoretical rates of population increase for non-equilibrium populations of L. ocellata (c. 0.07), M. senta (c. 0.14) and L. erinacea and A. radiata (c. 0.20) were low compared to most fishes, indicating that north-west Atlantic skates are intrinsically unproductive, yet are theoretically capable of supporting low-level fisheries. Nevertheless, the results of 36 years of research surveys indicate that the abundance of mature L. ocellata, A. radiata and M. senta all decreased by >90% since 1970, indicating that past fishing mortality (both directed and undirected) has outstripped the net productivity of the skate populations on the eastern Scotian Shelf. The relationship between maximum age (t(max)) and age of maturity (t(mat)) was a better predictor of population growth rate than was body size, with the species exhibiting the highest ratios of t(mat) :t(max) (L. ocellata = 0.68, M. senta = 0.66) having the lowest predicted population growth rates. L. ocellata appears to have the lowest productivity and has experienced the greatest population decline, thus raising concerns over its future status.

  15. Cryptic invasion of Northern Leopard Frogs (Rana pipiens) across phylogeographic boundaries and a dilemma for conservation of a declining amphibian

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Ryan P.; Drost, Charles A.; Mock, Karen E.

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic introduction of species is a major contributor to loss of biodiversity. Translocations within the range of a species are less frequently recognized, but have the potential for negative effects as well. Genetic mixing may lead to loss of local adaptations or further decline through outbreeding depression. These cryptic invasions may be quite difficult to recognize, but genetic tools can be used to recognize and monitor such intraspecific introductions. Conversely, translocations within species can be an important conservation tool to reduce inbreeding depression and replace lost genetic diversity. Thus, cryptic invasions can be either an aid or a hindrance to conservation efforts. We tested for the presence of non-native genotypes and assessed the extent and nature of introgression in populations of Northern Leopard Frog (Rana pipiens) in the southwestern US, where populations have declined to a few remnant populations. The most abundant and diverse complex of populations in the region contained a mitochondrial haplotype that was not native to the western US, probably resulting from the introduction of released pets, laboratory animals, or release during fish stocking. These non-native haplotypes were well integrated into a large complex of ponds and lakes, contributing to high genetic diversity in this area. Logistically, the geographic extent of non-native genetic influence within this population precludes eliminating or controlling the non-native component of this population. We recommend assessing the progress and fate of the introgression over time—along with population fitness parameters—to determine whether this introduction is beneficial or detrimental to population persistence. Meanwhile, translocations from nearby locations with similar environmental conditions have the best prospects for avoiding problems with outbreeding depression in other declining populations and will also most effectively preserve regional genetic diversity.

  16. Regional response to drought during the formation and decline of Preclassic Maya societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebert, Claire E.; Peniche May, Nancy; Culleton, Brendan J.; Awe, Jaime J.; Kennett, Douglas J.

    2017-10-01

    The earliest complex societies and a distinctive set of pan-regional social, political, and economic institutions appeared in the southern Maya lowlands during the Preclassic period (ca. 1200/1100 cal BCE-cal 300 CE). The timing of these cultural changes was variably influenced by local developments, interaction with other regions of Mesoamerica, and climate change. We present a high-resolution radiocarbon chronology for the growth of the early polity of Cahal Pech, Belize, one of the first permanent settlements in the southern Maya lowlands. We compare our results to a database containing over 1190 radiocarbon dates from cultural contexts reported from five major regions of the southern lowlands to interpret the expansion and decline of emerging complex social groups during the Preclassic. Comparisons to paleoclimate proxy datasets suggest that fluctuating climate regimes may have promoted alternating integration and fragmentation of early hierarchically organized societies. Stable climatic conditions during the Middle Preclassic (1000/900-300 cal BCE) fostered the centralization of populations and the formation of large regional polities across the southern lowlands. An extended drought at the end of the Late Preclassic (cal 150-300 CE) likely contributed to the decline of some major polities in the central Petén, but smaller sites located in productive environments were more resilient and persisted in to the Classic period. This research provides a framework for understanding the complex social and environmental factors that influenced localized adaptations to climate change and the episodic growth and decline of early complex societies in prehistory.

  17. Genetic structure of local populations of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) in central Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munstermann, L E; Morrison, A C; Ferro, C; Pardo, R; Torres, M

    1998-01-01

    Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva), the sand fly vector of American visceral leishmaniasis in the New World tropics, has a broad but discontinuous geographical distribution from southern Mexico to Argentina. A baseline for population genetic structure and genetic variability for this species was obtained by analyzing 5 local, peridomestic populations at the approximate center of its distribution, the Magdalena River Valley of central Colombia. Three populations of L. longipalpis from El Callejón, a small rural community, were compared with 2 populations from neighboring areas 12 and 25 km distant for genetic variation at 15 isoenzyme loci. The mean heterozygosity ranged from 11 to 16%, with 1.2 to 2.3 alleles detected per locus. Nei's genetic distances among the populations were very low, ranging from 0.001 to 0.007. Gene flow estimates based on FST indicated high levels of gene flow among local L. longipalpis populations, with minimal population substructuring.

  18. Uterine fibroid embolisation: Initial experience in our local population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jawad, R.A.; Rehman, I.; Rana, A.I.; Tariq, N.; Tariq, N.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the results of uterine fibroid embolisation as a treatment option for symptomatic uterine fibroids in the local population. Methods: The retrospective study was done at the Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Shifa International Hospital, Islamabad, and comprised records of 12 patients with symptomatic uterine fibroids who had undergone uterine fibroid embolisation with the use of polyvinyl alcohol between May 2008 and July 2012. All of these patients had been assessed by a gynaecologist. Pre-embolisation workup was done by pelvic Magnetic Resonance Imaging. A detailed questionnaire was prepared to assess clinical improvement and interval change in fibroid size on follow-up imaging. Results: A technically successful embolisation was done in all patients. All patients experienced immediate post-procedure pain, but responded to conservative treatment. Clinical follow-up showed a significant reduction in symptoms within six months of the procedure, with 88% improvement in menorrhagia and 100% improvement in pain. Follow-up imaging showed reduction in fibroid sizes ranging from 17-63%. Two patients developed infection, which is a known complication of this procedure. Conclusion: Uterine fibroid embolisation is a well-recognised treatment option for symptomatic uterine fibroids. Ascertaining its long-term results in our local population will, however, require additional studies with larger patient populations. (author)

  19. Genetic diversity of Ghanaian local chicken populations based on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In Ghana, local chickens are raised across distinct agro-ecological zones and constitute unique populations with variable phenotypes that need to be characterized to provide needed information for the conservation of useful genotypes against future needs. In particular, the Interior Savannah (GHIS) in the north, the Forest ...

  20. Patch size effects on plant species decline in an experimentally fragmented landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Cathy D; Holt, Robert D; Foster, Bryan L

    2009-09-01

    Understanding local and global extinction is a fundamental objective of both basic and applied ecology. Island biogeography theory (IBT) and succession theory provide frameworks for understanding extinction in changing landscapes. We explore the relative contribution of fragment size vs. succession on species' declines by examining distributions of abundances for 18 plant species declining over time in an experimentally fragmented landscape in northeast Kansas, U.S.A. If patch size effects dominate, early-successional species should persist longer on large patches, but if successional processes dominate, the reverse should hold, because in our system woody plant colonization is accelerated on large patches. To compare the patterns in abundance among patch sizes, we characterize joint shifts in local abundance and occupancy with a new metric: rank occupancy-abundance profiles (ROAPs). As succession progressed, statistically significant patch size effects emerged for 11 of 18 species. More early-successional species persisted longer on large patches, despite the fact that woody encroachment (succession) progressed faster in these patches. Clonal perennial species persisted longer on large patches compared to small patches. All species that persisted longer on small patches were annuals that recruit from the seed bank each year. The degree to which species declined in occupancy vs. abundance varied dramatically among species: some species declined first in occupancy, others remained widespread or even expanded their distribution, even as they declined in local abundance. Consequently, species exhibited various types of rarity as succession progressed. Understanding the effect of fragmentation on extinction trajectories requires a species-by-species approach encompassing both occupancy and local abundance. We propose that ROAPs provide a useful tool for comparing the distribution of local abundances among landscape types, years, and species.

  1. Long-term herbarium data reveal the decline of a temperate-water algae at its southern range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riera, Rodrigo; Sangil, Carlos; Sansón, Marta

    2015-11-01

    Distributional shifts of marine species have recently received attention as a result of increasing man-induced pressures on coastal ecosystems and global climate change (i.e. ocean warming). The southernmost geographical limit of the fucoid Fucus guiryi is the Canarian archipelago (Northeastern Atlantic Ocean) where this species is currently forming scarce and low-dense populations. Studies on long-term herbarium data revealed the decrease in size of morphological features (length and width of thallus and receptacles), and recent surveys confirmed the sharp decline, or even extinction, of F. guiryi from most sites previously documented. The increase of mean seawater surface temperature consistently matches the regression of populations of F. guiryi. Other environmental variables, such as wave exposure, cloud cover and chlorophyll-a concentration, contributed to explain local-scale spatial variability detected in Canarian populations.

  2. Rapid ongoing decline of Baird's tapir in Cusuco National Park, Honduras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCANN, Niall P; Wheeler, Phil M; Coles, Tim; Bruford, Michael W

    2012-12-01

    During the International Tapir Symposium 16-21 Oct 2011, the conservation of Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) in Honduras received a boost with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Minister Director of the Honduran Institute of Conservation and Forestry (ICF) and the Tapir Specialist Group (TSG). Despite this agreement, accelerating levels of hunting and habitat loss continue to pose a threat to Baird's tapir in Honduras. An ongoing study in Cusuco National Park in northwestern Honduras has been monitoring changes in population dynamics of Baird's tapir since 2006 through the collection of occupancy data. The study has identified an increase in hunting pressure, coinciding with a drastic decline in the encounter rate with Baird's tapir spoor. Here, we examine the significance of a range of demographic variables on Baird's tapir occupancy in Cusuco National Park using the software PRESENCE, and simulate the effects of different management strategies on the future dynamics of the population using the stochastic simulation software VORTEX. The predictions of the theoretical population models are compared to observed changes in occupancy levels. We found that non-intervention resulted in the local extinction of Baird's tapir within a very short time frame, but that various intervention models enabled the population to recover to near carrying capacity. Occupancy and extinction probability were shown to respond markedly to the increase in hunting pressure; and occupancy models supported the future population predictions generated by VORTEX. Our study suggests that immediate intervention is required to reduce hunting pressure to near historical levels to prevent the imminent local extinction of the species. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

  3. Population success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    . Access to contraceptives is, of course, a major influence on fertility decline. According to UNFPA some of the Latin American countries have the highest contraceptive use among developing countries. The countries of Asia come next and contraceptives are least used in sub-Saharan Africa where birth rates of 45/1000 are still common. The money for population programs, says the report, has come largely from developing countries themselves. A survey of 15 countries showed them to have contributed 67% out of their own budgets--the rest having come from external aid. And in programs aided by UNFPA the local input has been even higher. During 1979-1981 the developing countries themselves budgeted $4.6 for each dollar budgeted by UNFPA. The report also highlights some of the emerging problems for the next 2 decades--and which will be high on the agenda of the 1984 conference. These include "uncontrolled urban growth" in developing countries as well as an important change in overall population age structure as more and more old people survive. Aging populations are of particular concern to the developed countries but, as the report points out, even countries like China--which has achieved a steep drop in fertility and mortality--will face the problems of an aging population by the year 2000. full text

  4. Nigeria's Population Policy and Future Fertility Decline | Mba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, promulgated its first explicit population policy in 1988, in response to the soaring population growth rate that impedes developmental efforts. The policy document has stipulated a number of quantitative demographic targets. Paramount ...

  5. Communication problems between local authorities and population in the zone of anti-terrorist operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. M. Dolya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the context of restoration of government framework and local authorities in the regions prone to external aggression, special attention should be paid to the study of the problem of organisation of communication between public authorities and local population. It is the dialogue and the effective exchange of information between the population and the local authorities that constitute one of the major pillars of reintegration of Donbass territories, covered by the antiterrorist operation, into Ukraine; the regional specifics of the given territories is the anarchy resulting from withdrawal of the local government bodies that were legally elected yet in 2010. In fact, escape of heads and deputies of local councils in the most challenging period in life of the region catalysed the local people, reinforcing the sense of insecurity and understanding the betrayal of representatives of local government bodies. Thus, the issues of enhancement of communication channels effectiveness, which were still burning before the beginning of the external aggression and the partial occupation of Donbass, have been compounded today by the problem of establishment of communication channels between the population and the new Ukrainian local authorities nearly from scratch. This needs to take into account that the armed conflict conditions remain and, obviously, leave their imprint on social interaction within local communities. At the same time, it is the development of communication in the ATO zone, especially in the areas that underwent occupation or were released, which may form the basis for the harmonious entry of the citizens into the Ukrainian socium. Establishment of civil­military administrations (CMAs with the purpose to temporarily substitute the non­functioning local authorities in Donbass is the unique experience for Ukraine. Despite legal recognition of rights and duties of local government bodies, it should be understood that CMAs act in terms of

  6. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Sam M; Greaver, Cathy; Knight, Grant A; Knight, Mike H; Smit, Izak P J; Pienaar, Danie

    2015-01-01

    The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008) and white rhinos (2010) together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487) was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956). The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564) overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183). Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  7. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam M Ferreira

    Full Text Available The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008 and white rhinos (2010 together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487 was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956. The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564 overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183. Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  8. Limiting factors in caribou population ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Klein

    1991-10-01

    Full Text Available Caribou and wild reindeer populations fluctuate over time. On this fact there is general agreement. Factors responsible for population limitation and subsequent declines have been examined within the framework of animal population theory. There is, however, little agreement when factors limiting specific populations are generalized to Rangifer populations over broad geographic regions. Comparative examinations of wild Rangifer populations worldwide discloses that factors that have regulated those populations are highly variable between populations, apparently as a reflection of the differences in environmental variables unique to each population. Examples exist of populations where major regulating factors have been climatic extremes, predation, hunting mortality, food limitation, insects, parasites, disease, interspecific competition, and human developmental impacts or combinations of these factors. This diversity of limiting factors affecting caribou and wild reindeer populations is a reflection of the ecologial complexity of the species, a concept that has often been ignored in past efforts to reach management decisions by extrapolation from the limited localized knowledge available on the species.

  9. Hydroperiod and cattle use associated with lower recruitment in an r-selected amphibian with a declining population trend in the Klamath Mountains, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esther M. Cole; Rosemary Hartman; Malcolm P. North

    2016-01-01

    Recent population declines in amphibians associated with mortality in early life stages highlight the need for a better understanding of the environmental factors related to successful survival to metamorphosis. In our study, we closely examine the relative importance of environmental factors to three stages of recruitment for Cascade frogs (Rana cascadae...

  10. Probing the Dusty Stellar Populations of the Local Volume Galaxies with JWST /MIRI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Olivia C.; Meixner, Margaret [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD, 21218 (United States); Justtanont, Kay [Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, Onsala Space Observatory, SE-439 92 Onsala (Sweden); Glasse, Alistair [UK Astronomy Technology Centre, Royal Observatory, Edinburgh, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom)

    2017-05-20

    The Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) for the James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ) will revolutionize our understanding of infrared stellar populations in the Local Volume. Using the rich Spitzer -IRS spectroscopic data set and spectral classifications from the Surveying the Agents of Galaxy Evolution (SAGE)–Spectroscopic survey of more than 1000 objects in the Magellanic Clouds, the Grid of Red Supergiant and Asymptotic Giant Branch Star Model (grams), and the grid of YSO models by Robitaille et al., we calculate the expected flux densities and colors in the MIRI broadband filters for prominent infrared stellar populations. We use these fluxes to explore the JWST /MIRI colors and magnitudes for composite stellar population studies of Local Volume galaxies. MIRI color classification schemes are presented; these diagrams provide a powerful means of identifying young stellar objects, evolved stars, and extragalactic background galaxies in Local Volume galaxies with a high degree of confidence. Finally, we examine which filter combinations are best for selecting populations of sources based on their JWST colors.

  11. Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David

    2017-01-20

    If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart

  12. The global financial crisis and neighborhood decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwiers, Merle; Bolt, Gideon; Van Ham, Maarten; Van Kempen, Ronald

    2016-01-01

    Neighborhood decline is a complex and multidimensional process. National and regional variations in economic and political structures (including varieties in national welfare state arrangements), combined with differences in neighborhood history, development, and population composition, make it

  13. Local cabbage ( Brassica oleracea var. capitata L.) populations from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In previous experiments, we were able to augment cabbages (Brassica oleracea L. var. capitata L.) with two new local open pollinated (OP) populations and one cultivar. The type of use indicated that these are cabbages with thinner and juicier leaves, which predisposes their heads for fine grating and also makes their ...

  14. Trouble in the aquatic world: How wildlife professionals are battling amphibian declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Deanna H.; Chestnut, Tara E.

    2014-01-01

    A parasitic fungus, similar to the one that caused the extinction of numerous tropical frog and toad species, is killing salamanders in Europe. Scientists first identified the fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, in 2013 as the culprit behind the death of fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra) in the Netherlands (Martel et al. 2013) and are now exploring its potential impact to other species. Although the fungus, which kills the amphibians by infecting their skin, has not yet spread to the United States, researchers believe it’s only a matter of time before it does and, when that happens, the impact on salamander populations could be devastating (Martel et al. 2014).Reports of worldwide declines of amphibians began a quarter of a century ago (Blaustein & Wake 1990). Globally, some amphibian population declines occurred in the late 1950s and early 1960s, and declining trends continued in North America (Houlahan et al. 2000). In the earlier years, population declines were attributed primarily to overharvest due to unregulated supply of species such as the northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) for educational use (Dodd 2013). In later years, however, causes of declines were less evident. In 1989, herpetologists at the First World Congress of Herpetology traded alarming stories of losses across continents and in seemingly protected landscapes, making it clear that amphibian population declines were a “global phenomenon.” In response to these reports, in 1991, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) established the Declining Amphibian Populations Task Force to better understand the scale and scope of global amphibian declines. Unfortunately, the absence of long-term monitoring data and targeted studies made it difficult for the task force to compile information.Today, according to AmphibiaWeb.org, there are 7,342 amphibian species in the world — double the number since the first alerts of declines — making the situation

  15. Devastating decline of forest elephants in central Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiona Maisels

    Full Text Available African forest elephants- taxonomically and functionally unique-are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002-2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced.

  16. The decline of infant and child mortality among Spanish Gitanos or Calé (1871−2005: A microdemographic study in Andalusia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan F. Gamella

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Most Romani groups in Europe have experienced a decline in childhood mortality during recent decades. These crucial transformations are rarely addressed in research or public policy. Objective: This paper analyzes the timing and structure of the decline of childhood mortality among the Gitano people of Spain. Methods: The paper is based on the family and genealogy reconstitution of the Gitano population of 22 contiguous localities in Southern Spain. Registry data from over 19,100 people and 3,501 reconstituted families was included in a dense genealogical grid ranging over 150 years. From this database we produced annual time series of infant and child mortality and of the registered causes of death from 1871 to 2005. Results: The analyzed data shows a rapid decline in infant and child mortality from about 1949 to 1970. The onset of the definitive decline occurred in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Child mortality was higher in the pre-transitional period and started to decline earlier, although it took longer to converge with majority rates. The mortality transition in the Gitano minority paralleled that of the dominant majority, but with important delays and higher mortality rates. The causes of death show the deprivation suffered by Gitano people. Conclusions: The childhood mortality decline facilitated the most important changes experienced recently by the Gitano minority, including its fertility transition and the transformation of Gitanos' gender and family systems. Contribution: This is one of the first historical reconstructions of the mortality transition of a Romani population.

  17. Distribution of MN blood group types in local populations in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    lation, which measures how many people come into the local population, was then .... 1986). In contrast, the Japanese have only 30.9%. (Furuhata et al. ... also came from nearby towns, all of which, Isabela included, are composed of ...

  18. Lung function decline in COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tantucci C

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Claudio Tantucci, Denise ModinaUnit of Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, ItalyAbstract: The landmark study of Fletcher and Peto on the natural history of tobacco smoke-related chronic airflow obstruction suggested that decline in the forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is slow at the beginning, becoming faster with more advanced disease. The present authors reviewed spirometric data of COPD patients included in the placebo arms of recent clinical trials to assess the lung function decline of each stage, defined according to the severity of airflow obstruction as proposed by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD guidelines. In large COPD populations the mean rate of FEV1 decline in GOLD stages II and III is between 47 and 79 mL/year and 56 and 59 mL/year, respectively, and lower than 35 mL/year in GOLD stage IV. Few data on FEV1 decline are available for GOLD stage I. Hence, the loss of lung function, assessed as expiratory airflow reduction, seems more accelerated and therefore more relevant in the initial phases of COPD. To have an impact on the natural history of COPD, it is logical to look at the effects of treatment in the earlier stages.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, decline, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, FEV1

  19. Travel determinants and multi-scale transferability of national activity patterns to local populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henson, Kriste M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gou; ias, Konstadinos G [UCSB

    2010-11-30

    The ability to transfer national travel patterns to a local population is of interest when attempting to model megaregions or areas that exceed metropolitan planning organization (MPO) boundaries. At the core of this research are questions about the connection between travel behavior and land use, urban form, and accessibility. As a part of this process, a group of land use variables have been identified to define activity and travel patterns for individuals and households. The 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) participants are divided into categories comprised of a set of latent cluster models representing persons, travel, and land use. These are compared to two sets of cluster models constructed for two local travel surveys. Comparison of means statistical tests are used to assess differences among sociodemographic groups residing in localities with similar land uses. The results show that the NHTS and the local surveys share mean population activity and travel characteristics. However, these similarities mask behavioral heterogeneity that are shown when distributions of activity and travel behavior are examined. Therefore, data from a national household travel survey cannot be used to model local population travel characteristics if the goal to model the actual distributions and not mean travel behavior characteristics.

  20. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  1. Dramatic Declines of Montane Frogs in a Central African Biodiversity Hotspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschfeld, Mareike; Blackburn, David C.; Doherty-Bone, Thomas M.; Gonwouo, LeGrand Nono; Ghose, Sonia; Rödel, Mark-Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Amphibian populations are vanishing worldwide. Declines and extinctions of many populations have been attributed to chytridiomycosis, a disease induced by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). In Africa, however, changes in amphibian assemblages were typically attributed to habitat change. We conducted a retrospective study utilizing field surveys from 2004–2012 of the anuran faunas on two mountains in western Cameroon, a hotspot of African amphibian diversity. The number of species detected was negatively influenced by year, habitat degradation, and elevation, and we detected a decline of certain species. Because another study in this region revealed an emergence of Bd in 2008, we screened additional recent field-collected samples and also pre-decline preserved museum specimens for the presence of Bd supporting emergence before 2008. When comparing the years before and after Bd detection, we found significantly diminished frog species richness and abundance on both mountains after Bd emergence. Our analyses suggest that this may be the first disease-driven community-level decline in anuran biodiversity in Central Africa. The disappearance of several species known to tolerate habitat degradation, and a trend of stronger declines at higher elevations, are consistent with Bd-induced declines in other regions. Not all species decreased; populations of some species remained constant, and others increased after the emergence of Bd. This variation might be explained by species-specific differences in infection probability. Increased habitat protection and Bd-mitigation strategies are needed for sustaining diverse amphibian communities such as those on Mt. Manengouba, which contains nearly half of Cameroon’s frog diversity. PMID:27149624

  2. Dramatic Declines of Montane Frogs in a Central African Biodiversity Hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mareike Hirschfeld

    Full Text Available Amphibian populations are vanishing worldwide. Declines and extinctions of many populations have been attributed to chytridiomycosis, a disease induced by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd. In Africa, however, changes in amphibian assemblages were typically attributed to habitat change. We conducted a retrospective study utilizing field surveys from 2004-2012 of the anuran faunas on two mountains in western Cameroon, a hotspot of African amphibian diversity. The number of species detected was negatively influenced by year, habitat degradation, and elevation, and we detected a decline of certain species. Because another study in this region revealed an emergence of Bd in 2008, we screened additional recent field-collected samples and also pre-decline preserved museum specimens for the presence of Bd supporting emergence before 2008. When comparing the years before and after Bd detection, we found significantly diminished frog species richness and abundance on both mountains after Bd emergence. Our analyses suggest that this may be the first disease-driven community-level decline in anuran biodiversity in Central Africa. The disappearance of several species known to tolerate habitat degradation, and a trend of stronger declines at higher elevations, are consistent with Bd-induced declines in other regions. Not all species decreased; populations of some species remained constant, and others increased after the emergence of Bd. This variation might be explained by species-specific differences in infection probability. Increased habitat protection and Bd-mitigation strategies are needed for sustaining diverse amphibian communities such as those on Mt. Manengouba, which contains nearly half of Cameroon's frog diversity.

  3. Identifying the Relevant Local Population for Environmental Impact Assessments of Mobile Marine Fauna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delphine B. H. Chabanne

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessments must be addressed at a scale that reflects the biological organization for the species affected. It can be challenging to identify the relevant local wildlife population for impact assessment for those species that are continuously distributed and highly mobile. Here, we document the existence of local communities of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus inhabiting coastal and estuarine waters of Perth, Western Australia, where major coastal developments have been undertaken or are proposed. Using sighting histories from a 4-year photo-identification study, we investigated fine-scale, social community structure of dolphins based on measures of social affinity, and network (Half-Weight Index—HWI, preferred dyadic association tests, and Lagged Association Rates—LAR, home ranges, residency patterns (Lagged Identification Rates—LIR, and genetic relatedness. Analyses revealed four socially and spatially distinct, mixed-sex communities. The four communities had distinctive social patterns varying in strength, site fidelity, and residency patterns. Overlap in home ranges and relatedness explained little to none of the association patterns between individuals, suggesting complex local social structures. The study demonstrated that environmental impact assessments for mobile, continuously distributed species must evaluate impacts in light of local population structure, especially where proposed developments may affect core habitats of resident communities or sub-populations. Here, the risk of local extinction is particularly significant for an estuarine community because of its small size, limited connectivity with adjacent communities, and use of areas subject to intensive human use. In the absence of information about fine-scale population structure, impact assessments may fail to consider the appropriate biological context.

  4. Clinical Case Registries: Simultaneous Local and National Disease Registries for Population Quality Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backus, Lisa I.; Gavrilov, Sergey; Loomis, Timothy P.; Halloran, James P.; Phillips, Barbara R.; Belperio, Pamela S.; Mole, Larry A.

    2009-01-01

    The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has a system-wide, patient-centric electronic medical record system (EMR) within which the authors developed the Clinical Case Registries (CCR) to support population-centric delivery and evaluation of VA medical care. To date, the authors have applied the CCR to populations with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Local components use diagnosis codes and laboratory test results to identify patients who may have HIV or HCV and support queries on local care delivery with customizable reports. For each patient in a local registry, key EMR data are transferred via HL7 messaging to a single national registry. From 128 local registry systems, over 60,000 and 320,000 veterans in VA care have been identified as having HIV and HCV, respectively, and entered in the national database. Local and national reports covering demographics, resource usage, quality of care metrics and medication safety issues have been generated. PMID:19717794

  5. Land use, fishing, climate change, and decline of Thompson River, British Columbia, coho salmon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradford, M. J.; Irvine, J. R. [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, BC (Canada)

    2000-01-01

    Reasons for the decline in abundance of Pacific salmon population in the Thompson River watershed in British Columbia was investigated. Results suggests that the decline could be the result of a declining trend in productivity related to changes in ocean conditions, overfishing, and changes in the freshwater habitat. The abundance of salmon correlated with agricultural land use, road density, and qualitative changes in stream habitat status; logging appeared to have had no such effect. It was concluded that salmon populations will continue to decline unless limits on fishing are strictly enforced, and unless salmon producing watersheds are restored and ocean conditions are significantly improved . 12 refs., 2 figs.

  6. Local Climate Heterogeneity Shapes Population Genetic Structure of Two Undifferentiated Insular Scutellaria Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiung, Huan-Yi; Huang, Bing-Hong; Chang, Jui-Tse; Huang, Yao-Moan; Huang, Chih-Wei; Liao, Pei-Chun

    2017-01-01

    Spatial climate heterogeneity may not only affect adaptive gene frequencies but could also indirectly shape the genetic structure of neutral loci by impacting demographic dynamics. In this study, the effect of local climate on population genetic variation was tested in two phylogenetically close Scutellaria species in Taiwan. Scutellaria taipeiensis , which was originally assumed to be an endemic species of Taiwan Island, is shown to be part of the widespread species S. barbata based on the overlapping ranges of genetic variation and climatic niches as well as their morphological similarity. Rejection of the scenario of "early divergence with secondary contact" and the support for multiple origins of populations of S. taipeiensis from S. barbata provide strong evolutionary evidence for a taxonomic revision of the species combination. Further tests of a climatic effect on genetic variation were conducted. Regression analyses show nonlinear correlations among any pair of geographic, climatic, and genetic distances. However, significantly, the bioclimatic variables that represent the precipitation from late summer to early autumn explain roughly 13% of the genetic variation of our sampled populations. These results indicate that spatial differences of precipitation in the typhoon season may influence the regeneration rate and colonization rate of local populations. The periodic typhoon episodes explain the significant but nonlinear influence of climatic variables on population genetic differentiation. Although, the climatic difference does not lead to species divergence, the local climate variability indeed impacts the spatial genetic distribution at the population level.

  7. Alarming decline and range reduction of the highly threatened Great ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A Great Bustard Otis tarda survey carried out in spring 2015 in Morocco confirmed the decline of this highly endangered population. Bustards were only seen at two of the seven leks occupied ten years ago. The total number of birds counted was 40-44, which represents a 40% decline over the last decade. The sex-ratio ...

  8. Individualistic population responses of five frog species in two changing tropical environments over time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mason J Ryan

    Full Text Available Roughly 40% of amphibian species are in decline with habitat loss, disease, and climate change being the most cited threats. Heterogeneity of extrinsic (e.g. climate and intrinsic (e.g. local adaptations factors across a species' range should influence population response to climate change and other threats. Here we examine relative detectability changes for five direct-developing leaf litter frogs between 42-year sampling periods at one Lowland Tropical Forest site (51 m.a.s.l. and one Premontane Wet Forest site (1100 m.a.s.l. in southwest Costa Rica. We identify individualistic changes in relative detectability among populations between sampling periods at different elevations. Both common and rare species showed site-specific declines, and no species exhibited significant declines at both sites. Detection changes are correlated with changes in temperature, dry season rainfall, and leaf litter depth since 1969. Our study species share Least Concern conservation status, life history traits, and close phylogenetic relationship, yet their populations changed individualistically both within and among species. These results counter current views of the uniformity or predictability of amphibian decline response and suggest additional complexity for conservation decisions.

  9. Sustainable tourism in National Park "Đerdap", Serbia - attitudes of local population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brankov Jovana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the broader controversy about sustainable development, tourism literature highlights the importance of the support of the local population to tourism development. The active support of the community is essential for the local government, the future development policies and all entities that participate in the creation of sustainable tourism development. The specific dimension of this influence exists in protected areas, given the pronounced strong environmental component and a bond that is created among tourism - protected area - locals. The paper analyzes the attitudes and opinions of the local population residing in the National Park “Đerdap” or its protection zone about the effects and control of tourism development, as well as the availability of information on sustainable tourism and the impact this activity has on the community. The method applied is survey research on a sample of 227 respondents. During the preparation of the survey, the methodological procedure for the analysis of sustainable tourism indicators ware used proposed by the World Tourism Organization. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47007 III

  10. Critical mutation rate has an exponential dependence on population size in haploid and diploid populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Aston

    Full Text Available Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the

  11. Spatial and temporal variation in population dynamics of Andean frogs: Effects of forest disturbance and evidence for declines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther M. Cole

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity loss is a global phenomenon that can result in the collapse of food webs and critical ecosystem services. Amphibian population decline over the last century is a notable case of species loss because amphibians survived the last four major extinction events in global history, their current rate of extinction is unprecedented, and their rate of extinction is greater than that for most other taxonomic groups. Despite the severity of this conservation problem and its relevance to the study of global biodiversity loss, major knowledge gaps remain for many of the most threatened species and regions in the world. Rigorous estimates of population parameters are lacking for many amphibian species in the Neotropics. The goal of our study was to determine how the demography of seven species of the genus Pristimantis varied over time and space in two cloud forests in the Ecuadorian Andes. We completed a long term capture–mark–recapture study to estimate abundance, survival, and population growth rates in two cloud forests in the Ecuadorian Andes; from 2002 to 2009 at Yanayacu in the Eastern Cordillera and from 2002 to 2003 at Cashca Totoras in the Western Cordillera. Our results showed seasonal and annual variation in population parameters by species and sex. P. bicantus experienced significant reductions in abundance over the course of our study. Abundance, apparent survival, and population growth rates were lower in disturbed than in primary or mature secondary forest. The results of our study raise concerns for the population status of understudied amphibian groups and provide insights into the population dynamics of Neotropical amphibians.

  12. Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

    2016-01-01

    Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

  13. No evident spatial genetic structuring in the rapidly declining Black-tailed Godwit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trimbos, K.B.; Musters, C.J.M.; Verkuil, Y.I.; Kentie, R.; Piersma, T.; De Snoo, G.; Verkuil, Y.I.

    2011-01-01

    With 40% of the European Black-tailed Godwit population breeding in The Netherlands, this country harbours internationally significant numbers of this species. However, ongoing agricultural intensification has resulted in the fragmentation of the population and drastic population declines since

  14. Neighborhood Decline and the Economic Crisis (discussion paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwiers, M.D.; Bolt, G.; Van Ham, M.; Van Kempen, R.

    2014-01-01

    Neighborhood decline is a complex and multidimensional process. National and regional variation in economic and political structures (including variety in national welfare state arrangements), combined with differences in neighborhood history, development and population composition, makes it

  15. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  16. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a ...

  17. Local environment but not genetic differentiation influences biparental care in ten plover populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orsolya Vincze

    Full Text Available Social behaviours are highly variable between species, populations and individuals. However, it is contentious whether behavioural variations are primarily moulded by the environment, caused by genetic differences, or a combination of both. Here we establish that biparental care, a complex social behaviour that involves rearing of young by both parents, differs between closely related populations, and then test two potential sources of variation in parental behaviour between populations: ambient environment and genetic differentiation. We use 2904 hours behavioural data from 10 geographically distinct Kentish (Charadrius alexandrinus and snowy plover (C. nivosus populations in America, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa to test these two sources of behavioural variation. We show that local ambient temperature has a significant influence on parental care: with extreme heat (above 40 °C total incubation (i.e. % of time the male or female incubated the nest increased, and female share (% female share of incubation decreased. By contrast, neither genetic differences between populations, nor geographic distances predicted total incubation or female's share of incubation. These results suggest that the local environment has a stronger influence on a social behaviour than genetic differentiation, at least between populations of closely related species.

  18. Abrupt Decline in Tuberculosis among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian J Baker

    Full Text Available While the number of reported tuberculosis (TB cases in the United States has declined over the past two decades, TB morbidity among foreign-born persons has remained persistently elevated. A recent unexpected decline in reported TB cases among foreign-born persons beginning in 2007 provided an opportunity to examine contributing factors and inform future TB control strategies. We investigated the relative influence of three factors on the decline: 1 changes in the size of the foreign-born population through immigration and emigration, 2 changes in distribution of country of origin among foreign-born persons, and 3 changes in the TB case rates among foreign-born subpopulations. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined TB case counts, TB case rates, and population estimates, stratified by years since U.S. entry and country of origin. Regression modeling was used to assess statistically significant changes in trend. Among foreign-born recent entrants (<3 years since U.S. entry, we found a 39.5% decline (-1,013 cases beginning in 2007 (P<0.05 compared to 2000-2007 and ending in 2011 (P<0.05 compared to 2011-2014. Among recent entrants from Mexico, 80.7% of the decline was attributable to a decrease in population, while the declines among recent entrants from the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and China were almost exclusively (95.5%-100% the result of decreases in TB case rates. Among foreign-born non-recent entrants (≥3 years since U.S. entry, we found an 8.9% decline (-443 cases that resulted entirely (100% from a decrease in the TB case rate. Both recent and non-recent entrants contributed to the decline in TB cases; factors contributing to the decline among recent entrants varied by country of origin. Strategies that impact both recent and non-recent entrants (e.g., investment in overseas TB control as well as those that focus on non-recent entrants (e.g., expanded targeted

  19. Effective population size dynamics reveal impacts of historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressure in African elephants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okello, J B A; Wittemyer, G; Rasmussen, Henrik Barner

    2008-01-01

    Two hundred years of elephant hunting for ivory, peaking in 1970-1980s, caused local extirpations and massive population declines across Africa. The resulting genetic impacts on surviving populations have not been studied, despite the importance of understanding the evolutionary repercussions...... of such human-mediated events on this keystone species. Using Bayesian coalescent-based genetic methods to evaluate time-specific changes in effective population size, we analysed genetic variation in 20 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci from 400 elephants inhabiting the greater Samburu-Laikipia region...... of northern Kenya. This area experienced a decline of between 80% and 90% in the last few decades when ivory harvesting was rampant. The most significant change in effective population size, however, occurred approximately 2500 years ago during a mid-Holocene period of climatic drying in tropical Africa...

  20. A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

    2014-01-01

    We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

  1. Continent-wide tracking to determine migratory connectivity and tropical habitat associations of a declining aerial insectivore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Kevin C; Stutchbury, Bridget J M; Silverio, Cassandra; Kramer, Patrick M; Barrow, John; Newstead, David; Mickle, Nanette; Cousens, Bruce F; Lee, J Charlene; Morrison, Danielle M; Shaheen, Tim; Mammenga, Paul; Applegate, Kelly; Tautin, John

    2012-12-22

    North American birds that feed on flying insects are experiencing steep population declines, particularly long-distance migratory populations in the northern breeding range. We determine, for the first time, the level of migratory connectivity across the range of a songbird using direct tracking of individuals, and test whether declining northern populations have higher exposure to agricultural landscapes at their non-breeding grounds in South America. We used light-level geolocators to track purple martins, Progne subis, originating from North American breeding populations, coast-to-coast (n = 95 individuals). We show that breeding populations of the eastern subspecies, P. s. subis, that are separated by ca. 2000 km, nevertheless have almost completely overlapping non-breeding ranges in Brazil. Most (76%) P. s. subis overwintered in northern Brazil near the Amazon River, not in the agricultural landscape of southern Brazil. Individual non-breeding sites had an average of 91 per cent forest and only 4 per cent agricultural ground cover within a 50 km radius, and birds originating from declining northern breeding populations were not more exposed to agricultural landscapes than stable southern breeding populations. Our results show that differences in wintering location and habitat do not explain recent trends in breeding population declines in this species, and instead northern populations may be constrained in their ability to respond to climate change.

  2. Social position and functional decline among non-disabled old men and women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Kirsten; Damsgaard, Mogens Trab; Osler, Merete

    2004-01-01

    material wealth were related to functional decline and death in both men and women, but the patterns differed: housing tenure was related to functional decline and death among the men, while income was related to functional decline and death among the women. The associations were not attenuated when...... adjusted by behavioural factors. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that poor material wealth is associated with functional decline independent of behavioural factors in a selected population of non-disabled older adults. Thus, the cumulative influence of material wealth throughout the life-course cannot...

  3. Are neonicotinoid insecticides driving declines of widespread butterflies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre S. Gilburn

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been widespread concern that neonicotinoid pesticides may be adversely impacting wild and managed bees for some years, but recently attention has shifted to examining broader effects they may be having on biodiversity. For example in the Netherlands, declines in insectivorous birds are positively associated with levels of neonicotinoid pollution in surface water. In England, the total abundance of widespread butterfly species declined by 58% on farmed land between 2000 and 2009 despite both a doubling in conservation spending in the UK, and predictions that climate change should benefit most species. Here we build models of the UK population indices from 1985 to 2012 for 17 widespread butterfly species that commonly occur at farmland sites. Of the factors we tested, three correlated significantly with butterfly populations. Summer temperature and the index for a species the previous year are both positively associated with butterfly indices. By contrast, the number of hectares of farmland where neonicotinoid pesticides are used is negatively associated with butterfly indices. Indices for 15 of the 17 species show negative associations with neonicotinoid usage. The declines in butterflies have largely occurred in England, where neonicotinoid usage is at its highest. In Scotland, where neonicotinoid usage is comparatively low, butterfly numbers are stable. Further research is needed urgently to show whether there is a causal link between neonicotinoid usage and the decline of widespread butterflies or whether it simply represents a proxy for other environmental factors associated with intensive agriculture.

  4. Local population decline in rural North-Netherlands. PhD Thesis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elshof, H.

    2017-01-01

    Verdwijnen basisschool betekent niet het einde van het krimpdorp. Inwoners van krimpdorpen hoeven niet bang te zijn dat het sluiten van een basisschool het einde van het dorp betekent. Het verdwijnen van een school versterkt de uitstroom van bepaalde bevolkingsgroepen slechts in beperkte mate,

  5. Ovulation rate and early embryonic survival rate in female rabbits of a synthetic line and a local Algerian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Belabbas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A higher litter size at birth has been reported in female rabbits from a Synthetic line than in those of the Local Algerian population. The aim of this work was to analyse whether this difference in litter size was due to a higher ovulation rate and/or embryonic survival rate in Synthetic line than in Local Algerian population. In total, 24 multiparous female rabbits from Synthetic line and 23 from Local population were used in this experiment. Litter size at birth was recorded up to the first 3 parities. Litter size was 20% higher in Synthetic line than Local population. At their 4th gestation, the females were euthanized at 72 h post coitum. Synthetic line females had 50% more ova and embryos than those of Local population (+4.42 ova and +3.92 embryos, respectively. Synthetic line displayed a lower percentage of normal embryos and a larger number of unfertilized oocytes than Local population (–2.81% and +0.64 oocytes, respectively, but differences were not relevant. Synthetic line showed a lesser embryonic stage of development at 72 h post coitum, showing a higher percentage of early morulae (31.50 vs. 8.50% and a lower percentage of compact morulae (51.45 vs. 78.65% than Local population. No relevant difference was found for early embryonic survival rate between Synthetic line and Local population. In conclusion, the difference in litter size was mainly due to a higher ovulation rate in the Synthetic line, allowing more embryos to develop in this line.

  6. Dynamics and genetics of a disease-driven species decline to near extinction: lessons for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, M A; Young, R P; D'Urban Jackson, J; Orozco-terWengel, P; Martin, L; James, A; Sulton, M; Garcia, G; Griffiths, R A; Thomas, R; Magin, C; Bruford, M W; Cunningham, A A

    2016-08-03

    Amphibian chytridiomycosis has caused precipitous declines in hundreds of species worldwide. By tracking mountain chicken (Leptodactylus fallax) populations before, during and after the emergence of chytridiomycosis, we quantified the real-time species level impacts of this disease. We report a range-wide species decline amongst the fastest ever recorded, with a loss of over 85% of the population in fewer than 18 months on Dominica and near extinction on Montserrat. Genetic diversity declined in the wild, but emergency measures to establish a captive assurance population captured a representative sample of genetic diversity from Montserrat. If the Convention on Biological Diversity's targets are to be met, it is important to evaluate the reasons why they appear consistently unattainable. The emergence of chytridiomycosis in the mountain chicken was predictable, but the decline could not be prevented. There is an urgent need to build mitigation capacity where amphibians are at risk from chytridiomycosis.

  7. Parallel Declines in Pollinators and Insect-Pollinated Plants in Britain and the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biesmeijer, J.S.; Roberts, S.P.M.; Reemer, M.; Ohlemüller, R.; Edwards, M.; Peeters, T.; Schaffers, A.P.; Potts, S.G.; Kleukers, R.; Thomas, C.D.; Settele, J.; Kunin, W.E.

    2006-01-01

    Despite widespread concern about declines in pollination services, little is known about the patterns of change in most pollinator assemblages. By studying bee and hoverfly assemblages in Britain and the Netherlands, we found evidence of declines (pre-versus post-1980) in local bee diversity in both

  8. Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bronwyn A Fancourt

    Full Text Available The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their

  9. Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fancourt, Bronwyn A; Hawkins, Clare E; Cameron, Elissa Z; Jones, Menna E; Nicol, Stewart C

    2015-01-01

    The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance

  10. Participation in population-based case-control studies: does the observed decline vary by socio-economic status?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazloum, Marie; Bailey, Helen D; Heiden, Tamika; Armstrong, Bruce K; de Klerk, Nicholas; Milne, Elizabeth

    2012-05-01

    An Australian study of childhood leukaemia (Aus-ALL) previously reported that control participation was positively associated with socio-economic status (SES). A similar study of childhood brain tumours (Aus-CBT) was carried out 4 years later, and this paper compares control participation and its relationship with SES in the two studies. To assess the representativeness of controls in terms of SES, the addresses of controls were linked to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 Collection Districts (CDs), and hence to area-based indices of SES. Independent sample t-tests and chi-squared tests were used to compare the SES indices of CDs where Aus-CBT controls lived with those where Aus-ALL controls lived and with those of all CDs where Australian families lived. The overall percentage of eligible families who agreed to participate was lower in Aus-CBT (53.9%) than in Aus-ALL (70.3%). Control families in both studies were of higher SES than the general population, while the distribution of SES among recruited controls was similar in both studies. These findings provide some reassurance that the observed decline in research participation over time may not be associated with an increasingly unrepresentative participant population. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Selection in a subdivided population with local extinction and recolonization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, Joshua L

    2003-01-01

    In a subdivided population, local extinction and subsequent recolonization affect the fate of alleles. Of particular interest is the interaction of this force with natural selection. The effect of selection can be weakened by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. The behavior of a selected allele in such a population is shown to be equivalent to that of an allele with a different selection coefficient in an unstructured population with a different size. This equivalence allows use of established results for panmictic populations to predict such quantities as fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability, is decreased by extinction and recolonization. Thus deleterious alleles are more likely to fix, and advantageous alleles less likely to do so, in the presence of extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations. PMID:12807797

  12. In search of millions of lost Starlings across Europe: The relation between monitoring, science and conservation in a declining species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heldbjerg, Henning; Fox, Anthony David

    The Starling (Sturnus vulgaris) is a widespread and common species, which is declining in large parts of its European range. We analysed and compared breeding population trends across Europe to investigate the causes of the declines. At the continental scale, the European population declined at a...

  13. Recent declines in cancer incidence: related to the Great Recession?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Canchola, Alison J; Nelson, David O; Keegan, Theresa H M; Clarke, Christina A; Cheng, Iona; Shariff-Marco, Salma; DeRouen, Mindy; Catalano, Ralph; Satariano, William A; Davidson-Allen, Kathleen; Glaser, Sally L

    2017-02-01

    In recent years, cancer case counts in the U.S. underwent a large, rapid decline-an unexpected change given population growth for older persons at highest cancer risk. As these declines coincided with the Great Recession, we examined whether they were related to economic conditions. Using California Cancer Registry data from California's 30 most populous counties, we analyzed trends in cancer incidence during pre-recession (1996-2007) and recession/recovery (2008-2012) periods for all cancers combined and the ten most common sites. We evaluated the recession's association with rates using a multifactorial index that measured recession impact, and modeled associations between case counts and county-level unemployment rates using Poisson regression. Yearly cancer incidence rate declines were greater during the recession/recovery (3.3% among males, 1.4% among females) than before (0.7 and 0.5%, respectively), particularly for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers. Lower case counts, especially for prostate and liver cancer among males and breast cancer, melanoma, and ovarian cancer among females, were associated with higher unemployment rates, irrespective of time period, but independent of secular effects. The associations for melanoma translated up to a 3.6% decrease in cases with each 1% increase in unemployment. Incidence declines were not greater in counties with higher recession impact index. Although recent declines in incidence of certain cancers are not differentially impacted by economic conditions related to the Great Recession relative to pre-recession conditions, the large recent absolute declines in the case counts of some cancer may be attributable to the large declines in unemployment in the recessionary period. This may occur through decreased engagement in preventive health behaviors, particularly for clinically less urgent cancers. Continued monitoring of trends is important to detect any rises in incidence rates as deferred diagnoses come to

  14. Mechanisms of Age-Related Decline in Memory Search across the Adult Life Span

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hills, Thomas T.; Mata, Rui; Wilke, Andreas; Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R.

    2013-01-01

    Three alternative mechanisms for age-related decline in memory search have been proposed, which result from either reduced processing speed (global slowing hypothesis), overpersistence on categories (cluster-switching hypothesis), or the inability to maintain focus on local cues related to a decline in working memory (cue-maintenance hypothesis).…

  15. Quantifying the contribution of statins to the decline in population mean cholesterol by socioeconomic group in England 1991 - 2012: a modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Kypridemos

    Full Text Available Serum total cholesterol is one of the major targets for cardiovascular disease prevention. Statins are effective for cholesterol control in individual patients. At the population level, however, their contribution to total cholesterol decline remains unclear. The aim of this study was to quantify the contribution of statins to the observed fall in population mean cholesterol levels in England over the past two decades, and explore any differences between socioeconomic groups.This is a modelling study based on data from the Health Survey for England. We analysed changes in observed mean total cholesterol levels in the adult England population between 1991-92 (baseline and 2011-12. We then compared the observed changes with a counterfactual 'no statins' scenario, where the impact of statins on population total cholesterol was estimated and removed. We estimated uncertainty intervals (UI using Monte Carlo simulation, where confidence intervals (CI were impractical. In 2011-12, 13.2% (95% CI: 12.5-14.0% of the English adult population used statins at least once per week, compared with 1991-92 when the proportion was just 0.5% (95% CI: 0.3-1.0%. Between 1991-92 and 2011-12, mean total cholesterol declined from 5.86 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.82-5.90 to 5.17 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.14-5.20. For 2011-12, mean total cholesterol was lower in more deprived groups. In our 'no statins' scenario we predicted a mean total cholesterol of 5.36 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.33-5.40 for 2011-12. Statins were responsible for approximately 33.7% (95% UI: 28.9-38.8% of the total cholesterol reduction since 1991-92. The statin contribution to cholesterol reduction was greater among the more deprived groups of women, while showing little socio-economic gradient among men.Our model suggests that statins explained around a third of the substantial falls in total cholesterol observed in England since 1991. Approximately two thirds of the cholesterol decrease can reasonably be attributed non

  16. Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke E. Penaluna; Jason B. Dunham; Steve F. Railsback; Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Robert E. Bilby; Mohammad Safeeq; Arne E. Skaugset; James P. Meador

    2015-01-01

    Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of...

  17. Please don't misuse the museum: 'declines' may be statistical.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell Grant, Evan H

    2015-03-01

    Detecting declines in populations at broad spatial scales takes enormous effort, and long-term data are often more sparse than is desired for estimating trends, identifying drivers for population changes, framing conservation decisions, or taking management actions. Museum records and historic data can be available at large scales across multiple decades, and are therefore an attractive source of information on the comparative status of populations. However, changes in populations may be real (e.g. in response to environmental covariates) or resulting from variation in our ability to observe the true population response (also possibly related to environmental covariates). This is a (statistical) nuisance in understanding the true status of a population. Evaluating statistical hypotheses alongside more interesting ecological ones is important in the appropriate use of museum data. Two statistical considerations are generally applicable to use of museum records: first without initial random sampling, comparison with contemporary results cannot provide inference to the entire range of a species, and second the availability of only some individuals in a population may respond to environmental changes. Changes in the availability of individuals may reduce the proportion of the population that is present and able to be counted on a given survey event, resulting in an apparent decline even when population size is stable. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  18. Alleviating acid soil stress in cowpea with a local population of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Alleviating acid soil stress in cowpea with a local population of arbuscular ... Roots of the cowpea lines were all heavily colonized by the fungi and their leaf P was ... Total dry weight of inoculated cowpea was not affected by soil acidity while it ...

  19. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  20. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Paprocki

    Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

  1. Cessation of a salmon decline with control of parasites

    KAUST Repository

    Peacock, Stephanie J.; Krkošek, Martin; Proboszcz, Stan; Orr, Craig; Lewis, Mark A.

    2013-01-01

    (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) from Pacific Canada indicates that adaptive changes in parasite management on salmon farms have yielded positive conservation outcomes. After four years of sea lice epizootics and wild salmon population decline, parasiticide application

  2. Morphometric and Phylogenic Analysis of Six Population Indonesian Local Goats

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    A. Batubara

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The research objectives were to characterize morphometric and genetic distance between populations of Indonesian local goats. The morphological discriminant and canonical analysis were carried out to estimate the phylogenic relationship and determine the discriminant variable between Benggala goats (n= 96, Marica (n= 60, Jawarandu (n= 94, (Kacang (n= 217, Muara (n= 30 and Samosir (n= 42. Discriminant analysis used to clasify body weight and body measurements. In the analysis of variance showed that body weight and body measurement (body length, height at withers, thorax width, thorax height, hert girth, skull width and height, tail length and width, ear length and width of Muara goats was higher (P<0.05 compared to the other groups, and the lowest was in Marica goats. The smallest genetic distance was between Marica and Samosir (11.207 and the highest were between Muara and Benggala (255.110. The highest similarity between individual within population was found in Kacang (99.28% and the lowest in Samosir (82.50%. The canonical analysis showed high correlation on canon circumference, body weight, skull width, skull height, and tail width variables so these six variables can be used as distinguishing variables among population. The result from Mahalonobis distance for phenogram tree and canonical analysis showed that six populations of Indonesian local goats were divided into six breed of goats: the first was Muara, the second was Jawarandu, the third was Kacang, the fourth was Benggala, the fifth was Samosir and the sixth was Marica goats. The diversity of body size and body weight of goats was observed quite large, so the chances of increasing productivity could be made through selection and mating programs.

  3. The cultural evolution of fertility decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colleran, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Cultural evolutionists have long been interested in the problem of why fertility declines as populations develop. By outlining plausible mechanistic links between individual decision-making, information flow in populations and competition between groups, models of cultural evolution offer a novel and powerful approach for integrating multiple levels of explanation of fertility transitions. However, only a modest number of models have been published. Their assumptions often differ from those in other evolutionary approaches to social behaviour, but their empirical predictions are often similar. Here I offer the first overview of cultural evolutionary research on demographic transition, critically compare it with approaches taken by other evolutionary researchers, identify gaps and overlaps, and highlight parallel debates in demography. I suggest that researchers divide their labour between three distinct phases of fertility decline—the origin, spread and maintenance of low fertility—each of which may be driven by different causal processes, at different scales, requiring different theoretical and empirical tools. A comparative, multi-level and mechanistic framework is essential for elucidating both the evolved aspects of our psychology that govern reproductive decision-making, and the social, ecological and cultural contingencies that precipitate and sustain fertility decline. PMID:27022079

  4. Age-dependent terminal declines in reproductive output in a wild bird.

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    Martijn Hammers

    Full Text Available In many iteroparous species individual fitness components, such as reproductive output, first increase with age and then decline during late-life. However, individuals differ greatly in reproductive lifespan, but reproductive declines may only occur in the period just before their death as a result of an age-independent decline in physiological condition. To fully understand reproductive senescence it is important to investigate to what extent declines in late-life reproduction can be explained by age, time until death, or both. However, the study of late-life fitness performance in natural populations is challenging as the exact birth and death dates of individuals are often not known, and most individuals succumb to extrinsic mortality before reaching old age. Here, we used an exceptional long-term longitudinal dataset of individuals from a natural, closed, and predator-free population of the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis to investigate reproductive output, both in relation to age and to the time until the death of an individual (reverse-age approach. We observed an initial age-dependent increase in reproductive output that was followed by a decline in old age. However, we found no significant decline in reproductive output in the years directly preceding death. Although post-peak reproductive output declined with age, this pattern differed between terminal and non-terminal reproductive attempts, and the age-dependence of the terminal breeding attempt explained much of the variation in age-specific reproductive output. In fact, terminal declines in reproductive output were steeper in very old individuals. These results indicate that not only age-dependent, but also age-independent factors, such as physiological condition, need to be considered to understand reproductive senescence in wild-living animals.

  5. Local population structure of Plasmodium: impact on malaria control and elimination

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    Chenet Stella M

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Regardless of the growing interest in detecting population structures in malarial parasites, there have been limited discussions on how to use this concept in control programmes. In such context, the effects of the parasite population structures will depend on interventions’ spatial or temporal scales. This investigation explores the problem of identifying genetic markers, in this case microsatellites, to unveil Plasmodium genetic structures that could affect decisions in the context of elimination. The study was performed in a low-transmission area, which offers a good proxy to better understand problems associated with surveillance at the final stages of malaria elimination. Methods Plasmodium vivax samples collected in Tumeremo, Venezuela, between March 2003 and November 2004 were analysed. Since Plasmodium falciparum also circulates in many low endemic areas, P. falciparum samples from the same locality and time period were included for comparison. Plasmodium vivax samples were assayed for an original set of 25 microsatellites and P. falciparum samples were assayed for 12 microsatellites. Results Not all microsatellite loci assayed offered reliable local data. A complex temporal-cluster dynamics is found in both P. vivax and P. falciparum. Such dynamics affect the numbers and the type of microsatellites required for identifying individual parasites or parasite clusters when performing cross-sectional studies. The minimum number of microsatellites required to differentiate circulating P. vivax clusters differs from the minimum number of hyper-variable microsatellites required to distinguish individuals within these clusters. Regardless the extended number of microsatellites used in P. vivax, it was not possible to separate all individual infections. Conclusions Molecular surveillance has great potential; however, it requires preliminary local studies in order to properly interpret the emerging patterns in the context of

  6. Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

    2018-02-01

    Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

  7. Sudden deaths and colony population decline in Greek honey bee colonies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacandritsos, N; Granato, A; Budge, G; Papanastasiou, I; Roinioti, E; Caldon, M; Falcaro, C; Gallina, A; Mutinelli, F

    2010-11-01

    During June and July of 2009, sudden deaths, tremulous movements and population declines of adult honey bees were reported by the beekeepers in the region of Peloponnesus (Mt. Mainalo), Greece. A preliminary study was carried out to investigate these unexplained phenomena in this region. In total, 37 bee samples, two brood frames containing honey bee brood of various ages, eight sugar samples and four sugar patties were collected from the affected colonies. The samples were tested for a range of pests, pathogens and pesticides. Symptomatic adult honey bees tested positive for Varroa destructor, Nosema ceranae, Chronic bee paralysis virus (CBPV), Acute paralysis virus (ABPV), Deformed wing virus (DWV), Sacbrood virus (SBV) and Black queen cell virus (BQCV), but negative for Acarapis woodi. American Foulbrood was absent from the brood samples. Chemical analysis revealed that amitraz, thiametoxan, clothianidin and acetamiprid were all absent from symptomatic adult bees, sugar and sugar patty samples. However, some bee samples, were contaminated with imidacloprid in concentrations between 14 ng/g and 39 ng/g tissue. We present: the infection of Greek honey bees by multiple viruses; the presence of N. ceranae in Greek honey bees and the first record of imidacloprid (neonicotonoid) residues in Greek honey bee tissues. The presence of multiple pathogens and pesticides made it difficult to associate a single specific cause to the depopulation phenomena observed in Greece, although we believe that viruses and N. ceranae synergistically played the most important role. A follow-up in-depth survey across all Greek regions is required to provide context to these preliminary findings. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Fewer but not smaller schools in declining fish and krill populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brierley, Andrew S; Cox, Martin J

    2015-01-05

    Many pelagic species (species that live in the water column), including herring and krill, aggregate to form schools, shoals, or swarms (hereafter simply "schools," although the words are not synonyms). Schools provide benefits to individual members, including locomotory economy and protection from predators that prey on individuals, but paradoxically make schooling species energetically viable and commercially attractive targets for predators of groups and for fishers. Large schools are easier to find and yield greater prey/catch than small schools, and there is a requirement from fields as diverse as theoretical ecology and fisheries management to understand whether and how aggregation sizes change with changing population size. We collated data from vertical echosounder surveys of taxonomically diverse pelagic stocks from geographically diverse ecosystems. The data contain common significant positive linear stock-biomass to school-number relationships. They show that the numbers of schools in the stocks change with changing stock biomass and suggest that the distributions of school sizes do not change with stock biomass. New data that we collected using a multibeam sonar, which can image entire schools, contained the same stock-biomass to school-number relationship and confirm that the distribution of school sizes is not related to changing stock size: put simply, as stocks decline, individuals are distributed among fewer schools, not smaller schools. Since school characteristics affect catchability (the ease or difficulty with which fishers can capture target species) and availability of prey to predators, our findings have commercial and ecological implications, particularly within the aspirational framework of ecosystem-based management of marine systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Hospitalizations for cancer in international migrants versus local population in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyarte, Marcela; Delgado, Iris; Pedrero, Víctor; Agar, Lorenzo; Cabieses, Báltica

    2018-04-09

    To compare cancer hospital morbidity among the local population and the immigrant population in Chile. This is a prevalence study based on the analysis of hospital discharges of all the health centers of Chile. Cancer hospital discharges were characterized in 2012 according to the migratory status. The crude and specific rates of hospital morbidity for this cause were estimated for the analysis of their association with migratory status using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. The neoplasms were the third cause of hospital discharges for immigrants and the seventh one for Chileans. The adjusted rate of cancer hospital discharges was higher for Chileans than immigrants, and the latter had fewer days of hospitalization and greater proportion of surgical interventions. In the group of immigrants, cancer hospital discharges mainly corresponded to patients belonging to the private system (46%), and in the group of Chileans they mainly corresponded to patients in the public system (71.1%). We observed a large difference in the proportion of cancer hospital discharges for patients with no health insurance between the two populations (22.6%: immigrants, 1.0%: Chileans). In both populations, the three most frequent types of cancer were: (i) lymphoid tissue, hematopoietic organs, and related tissues, (ii) digestive organs, and (iii) breast cancer. Models of differentiated care should be considered for immigrants, with the creation of specific programs of information, coverage, and protection against cancer. More information on this problem must be generated at the local and international level.

  10. Modeling the decline of the Porcupine Caribou Herd, 1989-1998: the importance of survival vs. recruitment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen M. Arthur

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available The Porcupine caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti herd increased from approximately 100 000 animals during the 1970s to 178 000 in 1989, then declined to 129 000 by 1998. Our objective was to model the dynamics of this herd and investigate the potential that lower calf recruitment, as was observed during 1991-1993, produced the observed population changes. A deterministic model was prepared using estimates of birth and survival rates that reproduced the pattern of population growth from 1971-1989. Then, parameters were changed to simulate effects of lower calf recruitment and adult survival. Reducing recruitment for 3 years caused an immediate reduction in population size, but the population began to recover in 5-6 years. Even a dramatic temporary reduction in recruitment did not explain the continuing decline after 1995. In contrast, a slight but persistent reduction in adult survival caused a decline that closely followed the observed pattern. This suggests that survival of adults, and perhaps calves, has declined since the late 1980s.

  11. Neutral Evolution in a Biological Population as Diffusion in Phenotype Space: Reproduction with Local Mutation but without Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Daniel John; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

    2007-03-01

    The process of “evolutionary diffusion,” i.e., reproduction with local mutation but without selection in a biological population, resembles standard diffusion in many ways. However, evolutionary diffusion allows the formation of localized peaks that undergo drift, even in the infinite population limit. We relate a microscopic evolution model to a stochastic model which we solve fully. This allows us to understand the large population limit, relates evolution to diffusion, and shows that independent local mutations act as a diffusion of interacting particles taking larger steps.

  12. Latitudinal Gradient in Otolith Shape among Local Populations of Atlantic Herring (Clupea harengus L.) in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libungan, Lísa Anne; Slotte, Aril; Husebø, Åse; Godiksen, Jane A; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

    2015-01-01

    Otolith shape analysis of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in Norwegian waters shows significant differentiation among fjords and a latitudinal gradient along the coast where neighbouring populations are more similar to each other than to those sampled at larger distances. The otolith shape was obtained using quantitative shape analysis, the outlines were transformed with Wavelet and analysed with multivariate methods. The observed morphological differences are likely to reflect environmental differences but indicate low dispersal among the local herring populations. Otolith shape variation suggests also limited exchange between the local populations and their oceanic counterparts, which could be due to differences in spawning behaviour. Herring from the most northerly location (69°N) in Balsfjord, which is genetically more similar to Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), differed in otolith shape from all the other populations. Our results suggest that the semi-enclosed systems, where the local populations live and breed, are efficient barriers for dispersal. Otolith shape can thus serve as a marker to identify the origin of herring along the coast of Norway.

  13. Latitudinal Gradient in Otolith Shape among Local Populations of Atlantic Herring (Clupea harengus L.) in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libungan, Lísa Anne; Slotte, Aril; Husebø, Åse; Godiksen, Jane A.; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

    2015-01-01

    Otolith shape analysis of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in Norwegian waters shows significant differentiation among fjords and a latitudinal gradient along the coast where neighbouring populations are more similar to each other than to those sampled at larger distances. The otolith shape was obtained using quantitative shape analysis, the outlines were transformed with Wavelet and analysed with multivariate methods. The observed morphological differences are likely to reflect environmental differences but indicate low dispersal among the local herring populations. Otolith shape variation suggests also limited exchange between the local populations and their oceanic counterparts, which could be due to differences in spawning behaviour. Herring from the most northerly location (69°N) in Balsfjord, which is genetically more similar to Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), differed in otolith shape from all the other populations. Our results suggest that the semi-enclosed systems, where the local populations live and breed, are efficient barriers for dispersal. Otolith shape can thus serve as a marker to identify the origin of herring along the coast of Norway. PMID:26101885

  14. Decline in male circumcision in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, DaiSik; Koo, Sung-Ae; Pang, Myung-Geol

    2012-12-11

    To investigate the changing circumcision rate in South Korea in the last decade and to propose underlying causes for this change, in the context of the present fluctuating world-wide trends in circumcision. From 2009 to 2011, 3,296 South Korean males (or their parents) aged 0-64 years were asked about their circumcision status, their age at circumcision, and their information level regarding circumcision. We employed non-probability sampling considering the sensitive questions on the study theme. Currently the age-standardized circumcision rate for South Korean males aged 14-29 is found to be 75.8%. In an earlier study performed in 2002, the rate for the same age group was 86.3%. Of particular interest, males aged 14-16 show a circumcision rate of 56.4%, while the same age group 10 years ago displayed a much higher percentage, at 88.4%. In addition, the extraordinarily high circumcision rate of 95.2% found 10 years ago for the 17-19 age group is now reduced to 74.4%. Interestingly, of the circumcised males, the percentage circumcised in the last decade was only 25.2%; i.e., the majority of the currently circumcised males had undergone the operation prior to 2002, indicating that the actual change in the last decade is far greater. Consistent with this conjecture, the 2002 survey showed that the majority of circumcised males (75.7%) had undergone the operation in the decade prior to that point. Focusing on the flagship age group of 14-16, this drop suggests that, considering the population structure of Korean males, approximately one million fewer circumcision operations have been performed in the last decade relative to the case of non-decline. This decline is strongly correlated with the information available through internet, newspapers, lectures, books, and television: within the circumcised population, both the patients and their parents had less prior knowledge regarding circumcision, other than information obtained from person to person by oral communication

  15. The combined effect of bottom-up and top-down factors on life history and reproduction of Daphnia in the field: is a strategic dilemma underlying population declines?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan HÜLSMANN

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In a detailed field study covering three years, population dynamics, life history shifts and reproductive patterns of a population of Daphnia galeata were investigated in relation to food availability and dynamics of young of the year fish, the main vertebrate predators. In all years an increase of Daphnia abundance in spring was associated with declining food conditions (clear water stage. The size at maturity (SAM during this period was high and even increased, brood size declined, while egg volume increased. These patterns may be explained as response to food limitation. A decline of Daphnia abundance in every year was associated with increasing food conditions and the end of the clear water stage. Egg volumes as well as the size of egg-carrying daphnids also decreased, while brood size remained at low values. In two years in which these changes were particularly pronounced, the available fish data suggest that both the biomass (determining predation pressure, as well as the size of the fish (determining size selection are important for the observed dynamics. No decrease of SAM occurred as long as fish were smaller than 25 mm TL, when they are still gape-limited and not able to feed on the largest size-classes of Daphnia. Although fish biomass, which should correspond to kairomone level, would have suggested a reduction of SAM as induced defence, probably the selection of small (egg-carrying daphnids by small fish, besides severe food limitation, prevented this response to become effective. The sudden decline of SAM at the end of the clear water stage may not be explained by gradual phenotypic responses or indirect demographic effects, but must be due to an alternation of generations. SAM may be further reduced by direct and indirect effects of predation, interacting with increasing food levels. The Daphnia population is most vulnerable to predation at the time when the new generation takes over. Consequently, predation impact depends on

  16. Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A.; van der Linden, Giel T. J.; Schaminée, Joop H. J.; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

    2014-01-01

    Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species. PMID:25422416

  17. Declining ambient air pollution and lung function improvement in Austrian children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuberger, Manfred; Moshammer, Hanns; Kundi, Michael

    Three thousand four hundred fifty-one Austrian elementary school children were examined (between 2 and 8 times) by spirometry by standardized methods, over a 5 yr period. The districts where they lived were grouped into those where NO 2 declined during this period (by at least 30 μg/m 3 measured as half year means) and those with less or no decline in ambient NO 2. In both groups of districts, SO 2 and TSP fell by similar amounts over this period. A continuous improvement of MEF25 (maximum exspiratory flow rate at 25% vital capacity) was found in districts with declining ambient NO 2. Populations did not differ in respect of anthropometric factors, passive smoking or socioeconomic status. A birth cohort from this study population which was followed up to age 18 confirmed the improved growth of MEF25 with decline in NO 2, while the improved growth of forced vital capacity was more related to decline in SO 2. This study provides the first evidence that improvements in the outdoor air quality during the 1980s are correlated with health benefits, and suggest that adverse effects on lung function related to ambient air pollution are reversible before adulthood. Improvement of small airway functions appeared to be more dependent on reductions of NO 2 than reduction in SO 2 and TSP.

  18. The decline of North American freshwater fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Jelks, Howard L.; Burkhead, Noel M.

    2009-01-01

    North America has a broad array of freshwater ecosystems because of the continent's complex geography and geological history. Within a multitude of habitats—that include streams, large rivers, natural lakes, springs, and wetlands—rich assemblages of fishes reside, representing diverse taxonomic groups with unique ecological requirements. They face an unprecedented conservation crisis.1 In the last few decades, the proportion of inland fishes of North America, which are considered imperiled or extinct, increased from 20 to 40%.2 Although extinctions have occurred, many species and populations are declining in range size and abundance. The fish biota of the continent as a whole remains diverse; however, we can take action to stem any further declines.

  19. Hotspots of human-induced biomass productivity decline and their social-ecological types toward supporting national policy and local studies on combating land degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Quyet Manh; Le, Quang Bao; Vlek, Paul L. G.

    2014-10-01

    Identification and social-ecological characterization of areas that experience high levels of persistent productivity decline are essential for planning appropriate management measures. Although land degradation is mainly induced by human actions, the phenomenon is concurrently influenced by global climate changes that need to be taken into account in land degradation assessments. This study aims to delineate the geographic hotspots of human-induced land degradation in the country and classify the social-ecological characterizations of each specific degradation hotspot type. The research entailed a long-term time-series (1982-2006) of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index to specify the extents of areas with significant biomass decline or increase in Vietnam. Annual rainfall and temperature time-series were then used to separate areas of human-induced biomass productivity decline from those driven by climate dynamics. Next, spatial cluster analyses identified social-ecological types of degradation for guiding further investigations at regional and local scales. The results show that about 19% of the national land mass experienced persistent declines in biomass productivity over the last 25 years. Most of the degraded areas are found in the Southeast and Mekong River Delta (17,984 km2), Northwest Mountains (14,336 km2), and Central Highlands (13,504 km2). We identified six and five social-ecological types of degradation hotspots in agricultural and forested zones, respectively. Constraints in soil nutrient availability and nutrient retention capability are widely spreading in all degradation hotspot types. These hotspot types are different from each other in social and ecological conditions, suggesting that region-specific strategies are needed for the formulation of land degradation combating policy.

  20. Reduced body size and cub recruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, Karyn D.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

    2010-01-01

    Rates of reproduction and survival are dependent upon adequate body size and condition of individuals. Declines in size and condition have provided early indicators of population decline in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) near the southern extreme of their range. We tested whether patterns in body size, condition, and cub recruitment of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska were related to the availability of preferred sea ice habitats and whether these measures and habitat availability exhibited trends over time, between 1982 and 2006. The mean skull size and body length of all polar bears over three years of age declined over time, corresponding with long‐term declines in the spatial and temporal availability of sea ice habitat. Body size of young, growing bears declined over time and was smaller after years when sea ice availability was reduced. Reduced litter mass and numbers of yearlings per female following years with lower availability of optimal sea ice habitat, suggest reduced reproductive output and juvenile survival. These results, based on analysis of a long‐term data set, suggest that declining sea ice is associated with nutritional limitations that reduced body size and reproduction in this population.

  1. Long-term decline of the populations of Fucales (Cystoseira spp. and Sargassum spp.) in the Albères coast (France, North-western Mediterranean).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibaut, Thierry; Pinedo, Susana; Torras, Xavier; Ballesteros, Enric

    2005-12-01

    Only five of fourteen species of Fucales reported at the end of the XIXth century are currently present in the Albères Coast (France, NW Mediterranean). According to historical data there has been a steady decrease of all the populations since the 1940s. Seven taxa now extinct (Cystoseira crinita, Cystoseira barbata, Cystoseira foeniculacea f. tenuiramosa, Cystoseira spinosa, Cystoseira spinosa var. compressa, Sargassum hornschuchii and Sargassum vulgare) were considered frequent and some of them were the dominant and engineering species in several phytobenthic assemblages. Moreover, only one of the five species left, shows no signs of regression (Cystoseira compressa), two are considered as rare (Cystoseira caespitosa, Cystoseira zosteroides), and one is very rare (Cystoseira elegans). Cystoseira mediterranea, a species that was reported to make a continuous belt along the shores of the Albères coast, has almost disappeared from some areas. Overgrazing by sea urchins, outcompetition by mussels, habitat destruction, scientific research sampling and, probably, human trampling and chemical pollution are to be blamed for the decline of populations thriving in shallow waters. Deep-water species have been affected by an increase in water turbidity and, probably, chemical pollution and direct plant destruction attributed to net fishing. If degradation of the environmental conditions continues, the remaining Cystoseira species will face a most unwelcome prospect. Even after the removal of the causes that led to its die-off, natural restoration of extinct species seems not to be possible because the decline has also affected populations from nearby areas and zygotes are unable to disperse over long distances. Urgent management actions have to be designed in order to improve the current situation of the populations of Fucales in the Albères coast.

  2. Shifts in the distribution of rural population in the non-Chernozem zone of the RSFSR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igudina, A I; Ioffe, G V

    1986-04-01

    "Rural population change within the Non-Chernozem zone of the RSFRS [Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic] is examined over the period 1959-79 at several levels of analysis: the Non-Chernozem zone as a whole, its major economic regions, individual oblasts, individual rayons and individual farms and rural places. The overriding tendency at all levels of analysis has been the increasing spatial concentration of rural population." The authors observe that "this concentration assumes a variety of forms, from the concentration of rural population in the suburban zones of large cities and the immediate surroundings of rayon seats to a decline in the number of rural places (from 180,000 in 1959 to 118,000 in 1979) and the growth of local centers against a general background of rural population decline. The authors hint that the observed tendency is a positive development, in keeping with the policy of converting Soviet agriculture to a more intensive path of development." excerpt

  3. A look at Asia's changing youth population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xenos, P; Kabamalan, M; Westley, S B

    1999-01-01

    This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.

  4. Cardiovascular Prevention of Cognitive Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Jacques Monsuez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Midlife cardiovascular risk factors, including diabetes, hypertension, dyslipemia, and an unhealthy lifestyle, have been linked to subsequent incidence, delay of onset, and progression rate of Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia. Conversely, optimal treatment of cardiovascular risk factors prevents and slows down age-related cognitive disorders. The impact of antihypertensive therapy on cognitive outcome in patients with hypertension was assessed in large trials which demonstrated a reduction in progression of MRI white matter hyperintensities, in cognitive decline and in incidence of dementia. Large-scale database correlated statin use and reduction in the incidence of dementia, mainly in patients with documented atherosclerosis, but clinical trials failed to reach similar conclusions. Whether a multitargeted intervention would substantially improve protection, quality of life, and reduce medical cost expenditures in patients with lower risk profile has not been ascertained. This would require appropriately designed trials targeting large populations and focusing on cognitive decline as a primary outcome endpoint.

  5. Mutational meltdown in laboratory yeast populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeyl, C.; Mizesko, M.; Visser, de J.A.G.M.

    2001-01-01

    In small or repeatedly bottlenecked populations, mutations are expected to accumulate by genetic drift, causing fitness declines. In mutational meltdown models, such fitness declines further reduce population size, thus accelerating additional mutation accumulation and leading to extinction. Because

  6. Population Viability Analysis of the Endangered Roan Antelope in Ruma National Park, Kenya, and Implications for Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimanzi, Johnstone K

    2018-01-01

    Population viability analysis (PVA) was used to (1) establish causes of roan population decline for the past 30 years in Ruma National Park (RNP), the only park where wild roans remain in Kenya, and (2) predict the probability of roan persistence under existing and alternative management options. PVA was done using long-term data based on population dynamics, life history, climatic conditions, and expert knowledge. Poaching was identified as the main cause of roan decline in RNP. Several antipoaching and prioritized habitat management interventions to promote population recovery and sustainable conservation of roans are described. PVA predictions indicated that, without these interventions, the roan population cannot persist more than 3 decades. Furthermore, ensuring sustainable conservation of roans in RNP will boost tourism in Western Kenyan and thus alleviate poverty in this part of the country. Improved income from tourism will reduce the possible pressures from hunting and give greater incentives for local people to be actively engaged in roan conservation.

  7. Reef-scale trends in Florida Acropora spp. abundance and the effects of population enhancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Margaret W; Kerr, Katryna; Williams, Dana E

    2016-01-01

    Since the listing of Acropora palmata and A. cervicornis under the US Endangered Species Act in 2006, increasing investments have been made in propagation of listed corals (primarily A. cervicornis , A. palmata to a much lesser extent) in offshore coral nurseries and outplanting cultured fragments to reef habitats. This investment is superimposed over a spatiotemporal patchwork of ongoing disturbances (especially storms, thermal bleaching, and disease) as well as the potential for natural population recovery. In 2014 and 2015, we repeated broad scale (>50 ha), low precision Acropora spp. censuses (i.e., direct observation by snorkelers documented via handheld GPS) originally conducted in appropriate reef habitats during 2005-2007 to evaluate the trajectory of local populations and the effect of population enhancement. Over the decade-long study, A. palmata showed a cumulative proportional decline of 0.4 -0.7x in colony density across all sites, despite very low levels of outplanting at some sites. A. cervicornis showed similar proportional declines at sites without outplanting. In contrast, sites that received A. cervicornis outplants showed a dramatic increase in density (over 13x). Indeed, change in A. cervicornis colony density was significantly positively correlated with cumulative numbers of outplants across sites. This study documents a substantive reef-scale benefit of Acropora spp. population enhancement in the Florida Keys, when performed at adequate levels, against a backdrop of ongoing population decline.

  8. Hospitalizations for cancer in international migrants versus local population in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Oyarte

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare cancer hospital morbidity among the local population and the immigrant population in Chile. METHODS This is a prevalence study based on the analysis of hospital discharges of all the health centers of Chile. Cancer hospital discharges were characterized in 2012 according to the migratory status. The crude and specific rates of hospital morbidity for this cause were estimated for the analysis of their association with migratory status using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. RESULTS The neoplasms were the third cause of hospital discharges for immigrants and the seventh one for Chileans. The adjusted rate of cancer hospital discharges was higher for Chileans than immigrants, and the latter had fewer days of hospitalization and greater proportion of surgical interventions. In the group of immigrants, cancer hospital discharges mainly corresponded to patients belonging to the private system (46%, and in the group of Chileans they mainly corresponded to patients in the public system (71.1%. We observed a large difference in the proportion of cancer hospital discharges for patients with no health insurance between the two populations (22.6%: immigrants, 1.0%: Chileans. In both populations, the three most frequent types of cancer were: (i lymphoid tissue, hematopoietic organs, and related tissues, (ii digestive organs, and (iii breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS Models of differentiated care should be considered for immigrants, with the creation of specific programs of information, coverage, and protection against cancer. More information on this problem must be generated at the local and international level.

  9. Poison blamed for decline of Spain's majestic Black Vultures

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2007-03-01

    catastrophic” decline in numbers because of illegal poisoning by hunters. The use of poisoned bait to kill foxes, badgers, wild dogs, feral cats and smaller birds of prey has reduced the population by almost a half in the past decade,.

  10. Trends in Modifiable Risk Factors Are Associated With Declining Incidence of Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Acute Coronary Heart Disease in a Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannsverk, Jan; Wilsgaard, Tom; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Rasmussen, Knut; Thelle, Dag S; Njølstad, Inger; Hopstock, Laila Arnesdatter; Bønaa, Kaare Harald

    2016-01-05

    Few studies have used individual person data to study whether contemporary trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease are associated with changes in modifiable coronary risk factors. We identified 29 582 healthy men and women ≥25 years of age who participated in 3 population surveys conducted between 1994 and 2008 in Tromsø, Norway. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for coronary heart disease overall, out-of-hospital sudden death, and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. We measured coronary risk factors at each survey and estimated the relationship between changes in risk factors and changes in incidence trends. A total of 1845 participants had an incident acute coronary heart disease event during 375 064 person-years of follow-up from 1994 to 2010. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of total coronary heart disease decreased by 3% (95% confidence interval, 2.0-4.0; Pcoronary risk factors accounted for 66% (95% confidence interval, 48-97; Pcoronary heart disease. Favorable changes in cholesterol contributed 32% to the decline, whereas blood pressure, smoking, and physical activity each contributed 14%, 13%, and 9%, respectively. We observed a substantial decline in the incidence of coronary heart disease that was driven by reductions in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in modifiable coronary risk factors accounted for 66% of the decline in coronary heart disease events. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  11. On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Shapiro

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: This descriptive finding examines the comparative pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, relative to Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa. Objective: We seek to determine if fertility decline has been slower in sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere in the developing world. Methods: United Nations 2017 estimates of national fertility are used in assessing the comparative pace of fertility decline, and the four regions are compared in terms of how far they are into their fertility transition. Results: The data shows clearly that fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, still at a comparatively early stage, has been considerably slower than the earlier declines in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa at comparable stages of the transition, and displays less within-region heterogeneity than the transitions in these other regions. Conclusions: The slower pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, in conjunction with the high current fertility levels in the region, means that in the absence of policies seeking to accelerate fertility decline, sub-Saharan Africa will continue to experience rapid population growth that in turn will constrain its development. Contribution: Presentation of data in a novel way (Figures 2‒4, and associated calculations unambiguously demonstrates the slow pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa compared with other regions of the world.

  12. Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

    2018-01-01

    Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

  13. Late life leisure activities and risk of cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui-Xin; Jin, Yinlong; Hendrie, Hugh C; Liang, Chaoke; Yang, Lili; Cheng, Yibin; Unverzagt, Frederick W; Ma, Feng; Hall, Kathleen S; Murrell, Jill R; Li, Ping; Bian, Jianchao; Pei, Jin-Jing; Gao, Sujuan

    2013-02-01

    Studies concerning the effect of different types of leisure activities on various cognitive domains are limited. This study tests the hypothesis that mental, physical, and social activities have a domain-specific protection against cognitive decline. A cohort of a geographically defined population in China was examined in 2003-2005 and followed for an average of 2.4 years. Leisure activities were assessed in 1,463 adults aged 65 years and older without cognitive or physical impairment at baseline, and their cognitive performances were tested at baseline and follow-up examinations. High level of mental activity was related to less decline in global cognition (β = -.23, p Leisure activities in old age may protect against cognitive decline for both women and men, and different types of activities seem to benefit different cognitive domains.

  14. Evaluating Amphibian Declines with Site Revisits and Occupancy Models: Status of Montane Anurans in the Pacific Northwest USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brome McCreary

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian declines have been reported in mountainous areas around the western USA. Few data quantify the extent of population losses in the Pacific Northwest, a region in which amphibian declines have received much attention. From 2001–2004, we resurveyed historical breeding sites of two species of conservation concern, the Western Toad (Bufo [=Anaxyrus] boreas and Cascades Frog (Rana cascadae. We detected B. boreas breeding at 75.9% and R. cascadae breeding at 66.6% of historical sites. When we analyzed the data using occupancy models that accounted for detection probability, we estimated the current use of historically occupied sites in our study area was 84.9% (SE = 4.9 for B. boreas and 72.4% (SE = 6.6 for R. cascadae. Our ability to detect B. boreas at sites where they were present was lower in the first year of surveys (a low snowpack year and higher at sites with introduced fish. Our ability to detect R. cascadae was lower at sites with fish. The probability that B. boreas still uses a historical site for breeding was related to the easting of the site (+ and the age of record (-. None of the variables we analyzed was strongly related to R. cascadae occupancy. Both species had increased odds of occupancy with higher latitude, but model support for this variable was modest. Our analysis suggests that while local losses are possible, these two amphibians have not experienced recent, broad population losses in the Oregon Cascades. Historical site revisitation studies such as ours cannot distinguish between population losses and site switching, and do not account for colonization of new habitats, so our analysis may overestimate declines in occupancy within our study area.

  15. Attitudes of Local Population of Tourism Impacts on Destination Sustainability – Case of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izidora Marković

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Space as a resource is intensively used both by the tourism and the local community. Therefore the state of the tourism development must be measured trough time, along with attitudes of local population, to determine the impacts and the pressure that can continues tourism development cause. In the 1990s, tourism becomes the motor of the development of Croatia, which has resulted in continues increase of the number of tourist beds. On the other hand population of the Croatia is experiencing the demographic extinction. To explain pressures of the tourism development on the decreasing community, tourism function index was used in comparison with the research of the attitudes of local population considering tourism impacts. The main objective of this paper is to determine the correlation between the increase in the number of tourists and changes in the life of local population, which arises from the tourism activities in destinations, as well as from the ratio of the number of residents and tourists. The attitudes analysis has shown high level of the negative impacts of tourism in seven Adriatic counties, while in continental parts of Croatia tourism is seen as an activity with mostly positive effects. Still tourism has generally positive impact on the destination and is seen as desirable activity, even in areas with relatively high tourism function index. Accordingly, to enhance the positive impacts it is essential to diminish extremely big differences in tourism development between too developed coastal areas and mainly neglected continental part of the country and to reduce seasonality of tourism, trough sustainable management and diversification of tourism offer in accordance with spatial disparities.

  16. The recent decline of Montastraea annularis (complex coral populations in western Curaçao: a cause for concern?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. W Bruckner

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Shallow leeward reefs off the western end of Curaçao are dominated by extensive populations of M. annularis (complex. These species are larger in size (mean= 66 cm diameter than all other species, with few small colonies (10 cm observed within transects, and most exhibited low levels of partial mortality (mean= 22.5%. These species were less abundant (38% of all colonies in 2005. Partial mortality among live colonies of M. annularis and M. faveolata increased by 85% (mean = 42% partial mortality and numerous dead colonies of M. faveolata and M. annularis were observed; M. franksi colonies were generally in excellent condition (14% partial tissue mortality. A high prevalence of coral diseases (3-30% was documented among M. annularis and M. faveolata, while all other species were less frequently affected. Yellow band disease (YBD emerged shortly after the 1995 bleaching event, and rapidly spread throughout all depths, with the highest prevalence between 1997-1999. YBD caused slow rates of mortality (=1 cm/month, but multiple focal lesions appeared on individual colonies, and these progressively radiated outward as they killed the colonies. By 2005, 44% of the tagged corals were dead; the remainder exhibited active YBD infections (21% or were in remission (31.6% but were missing on average >90% of their tissue. Although the incidence of YBD has declined since 2000, white plague (WP prevalence was unusually high (4-12% in 2001 and 2005, with affected colonies exhibiting recent mortality of up to 70%. Dead Montastraea spp. surfaces are being colonized by other corals, including poritids, agaricids, and other faviids, while recruits of M. annularis (complex are absent. If diseases and other biotic stressors persist on these reefs, M. annularis and M. faveolata populations may undergo a decline similar to that observed in the 1980s among Caribbean acroporids. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54 (Suppl. 3: 45- 58. Epub 2007 Jan. 15.

  17. School-Based Administration of ADHD Drugs Decline, along with Diversion, Theft, and Misuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuPont, Robert L.; Bucher, Richard H.; Wilford, Bonnie B.; Coleman, John J.

    2007-01-01

    Since 2000 researchers have reported a decline in the administration of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medications given by school nurses, although no decline has been noted in the incidence of ADHD in school-age populations. Government data for the same period show reduced levels of methylphenidate abuse as measured by its…

  18. Multi-atlas labeling with population-specific template and non-local patch-based label fusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonov, Vladimir; Coupé, Pierrick; Eskildsen, Simon Fristed

    We propose a new method combining a population-specific nonlinear template atlas approach with non-local patch-based structure segmentation for whole brain segmentation into individual structures. This way, we benefit from the efficient intensity-driven segmentation of the non-local means framework...... and from the global shape constraints imposed by the nonlinear template matching....

  19. The association between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in a sample of older Puerto Rican adults with diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Tyler; Dávila, Ana Luisa; Clay, Olivio; Markides, Kyriakos S; Andel, Ross; Crowe, Michael

    2017-08-01

    Older Puerto Rican adults have particularly high risk of diabetes compared to the general US population. Diabetes is associated with both higher depressive symptoms and cognitive decline, but less is known about the longitudinal relationship between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in those with diabetes. This study investigated the association between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in older Puerto Rican adults with diabetes over a four-year period. Households across Puerto Rico were visited to identify a population-based sample of adults aged 60 years and over for the Puerto Rican Elderly: Health Conditions study (PREHCO); 680 participants with diabetes at baseline and no baseline cognitive impairment were included in analyses. Cognitive decline and depressive symptoms were measured using the Mini-Mental Cabán (MMC) and Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), respectively. We examined predictors of incident depressive symptoms (GDS ≥ 5 at follow-up but not baseline) and cognitive decline using regression modeling. In a covariate-adjusted logistic regression model, cognitive decline, female gender, and greater diabetes-related complications were each significantly associated with increased odds of incident depressive symptoms (p Puerto Ricans with diabetes who also experienced cognitive decline. Efforts are needed to optimize diabetes management and monitor for depression and cognitive decline in this population.

  20. The legacy of slavery and contemporary declines in heart disease mortality in the U.S. South.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Michael R; Black, Nyesha C; Matthews, Stephen A; James, Sherman A

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to characterize the role of county-specific legacy of slavery in patterning temporal (i.e., 1968-2014), and geographic (i.e., Southern counties) declines in heart disease mortality. In this context, the U.S. has witnessed dramatic declines in heart disease mortality since the 1960's, which have benefitted place and race groups unevenly, with slower declines in the South, especially for the Black population. Age-adjusted race- and county-specific mortality rates from 1968-2014 for all diseases of the heart were calculated for all Southern U.S. counties. Candidate confounding and mediating covariates from 1860, 1930, and 1970, were combined with mortality data in multivariable regression models to estimate the ecological association between the concentration of slavery in1860 and declines in heart disease mortality from 1968-2014. Black populations, in counties with a history of highest versus lowest concentration of slavery, experienced a 17% slower decline in heart disease mortality. The association for Black populations varied by region (stronger in Deep South than Upper South states) and was partially explained by intervening socioeconomic factors. In models accounting for spatial autocorrelation, there was no association between slave concentration and heart disease mortality decline for Whites. Nearly 50 years of declining heart disease mortality is a major public health success, but one marked by uneven progress by place and race. At the county level, progress in heart disease mortality reduction among Blacks is associated with place-based historical legacy of slavery. Effective and equitable public health prevention efforts should consider the historical context of place and the social and economic institutions that may play a role in facilitating or impeding diffusion of prevention efforts thereby producing heart healthy places and populations. Graphical abstract.

  1. Are habitat fragmentation, local adaptation and isolation-by-distance driving population divergence in wild rice Oryza rufipogon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yao; Vrieling, Klaas; Liao, Hui; Xiao, Manqiu; Zhu, Yongqing; Rong, Jun; Zhang, Wenju; Wang, Yuguo; Yang, Ji; Chen, Jiakuan; Song, Zhiping

    2013-11-01

    Habitat fragmentation weakens the connection between populations and is accompanied with isolation by distance (IBD) and local adaptation (isolation by adaptation, IBA), both leading to genetic divergence between populations. To understand the evolutionary potential of a population and to formulate proper conservation strategies, information on the roles of IBD and IBA in driving population divergence is critical. The putative ancestor of Asian cultivated rice (Oryza sativa) is endangered in China due to habitat loss and fragmentation. We investigated the genetic variation in 11 Chinese Oryza rufipogon populations using 79 microsatellite loci to infer the effects of habitat fragmentation, IBD and IBA on genetic structure. Historical and current gene flows were found to be rare (mh  = 0.0002-0.0013, mc  = 0.007-0.029), indicating IBD and resulting in a high level of population divergence (FST  = 0.343). High within-population genetic variation (HE  = 0.377-0.515), relatively large effective population sizes (Ne  = 96-158), absence of bottlenecks and limited gene flow were found, demonstrating little impact of recent habitat fragmentation on these populations. Eleven gene-linked microsatellite loci were identified as outliers, indicating local adaptation. Hierarchical AMOVA and partial Mantel tests indicated that population divergence of Chinese O. rufipogon was significantly correlated with environmental factors, especially habitat temperature. Common garden trials detected a significant adaptive population divergence associated with latitude. Collectively, these findings imply that IBD due to historical rather than recent fragmentation, followed by local adaptation, has driven population divergence in O. rufipogon. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

  3. APPLYING THIESSEN POLYGON CATCHMENT AREAS AND GRIDDED POPULATION WEIGHTS TO ESTIMATE CONFLICT-DRIVEN POPULATION CHANGES IN SOUTH SUDAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jordan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent violence in South Sudan produced significant levels of conflict-driven migration undermining the accuracy and utility of both national and local level population forecasts commonly used in demographic estimates, public health metrics and food security proxies. This article explores the use of Thiessen Polygons and population grids (Gridded Population of the World, WorldPop and LandScan as weights for estimating the catchment areas for settlement locations that serve large populations of internally displaced persons (IDP, in order to estimate the county-level in- and out-migration attributable to conflict-driven displacement between 2014-2015. Acknowledging IDP totals improves internal population estimates presented by global population databases. Unlike other forecasts, which produce spatially uniform increases in population, accounting for displaced population reveals that 15 percent of counties (n = 12 increased in population over 20 percent, and 30 percent of counties (n = 24 experienced zero or declining population growth, due to internal displacement and refugee out-migration. Adopting Thiessen Polygon catchment zones for internal migration estimation can be applied to other areas with United Nations IDP settlement data, such as Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria.

  4. Applying Thiessen Polygon Catchment Areas and Gridded Population Weights to Estimate Conflict-Driven Population Changes in South Sudan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, L.

    2017-10-01

    Recent violence in South Sudan produced significant levels of conflict-driven migration undermining the accuracy and utility of both national and local level population forecasts commonly used in demographic estimates, public health metrics and food security proxies. This article explores the use of Thiessen Polygons and population grids (Gridded Population of the World, WorldPop and LandScan) as weights for estimating the catchment areas for settlement locations that serve large populations of internally displaced persons (IDP), in order to estimate the county-level in- and out-migration attributable to conflict-driven displacement between 2014-2015. Acknowledging IDP totals improves internal population estimates presented by global population databases. Unlike other forecasts, which produce spatially uniform increases in population, accounting for displaced population reveals that 15 percent of counties (n = 12) increased in population over 20 percent, and 30 percent of counties (n = 24) experienced zero or declining population growth, due to internal displacement and refugee out-migration. Adopting Thiessen Polygon catchment zones for internal migration estimation can be applied to other areas with United Nations IDP settlement data, such as Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria.

  5. Décentralisation, droits de la population locale et citoyenneté des ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Décentralisation, droits de la population locale et citoyenneté des femmes : étude comparative menée au Kenya, en Ouganda et en Tanzanie - phase II. Le Kenya, l'Ouganda et la Tanzanie ont adopté de nouvelles lois, politiques et modalités institutionnelles pour faciliter la décentralisation de l'administration et de la ...

  6. Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaya, David N.; Pearse, Ian; Spyreas, Gregory

    2017-01-01

    Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.

  7. Forecasting the Revenues of Local Public Health Departments in the Shadows of the "Great Recession".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reschovsky, Andrew; Zahner, Susan J

    2016-01-01

    The ability of local health departments (LHD) to provide core public health services depends on a reliable stream of revenue from federal, state, and local governments. This study investigates the impact of the "Great Recession" on major sources of LHD revenues and develops a fiscal forecasting model to predict revenues to LHDs in one state over the period 2012 to 2014. Economic forecasting offers a new financial planning tool for LHD administrators and local government policy makers. This study represents a novel research application for these econometric methods. Detailed data on revenues by source for each LHD in Wisconsin were taken from annual surveys conducted by the Wisconsin Department of Health Services over an 8-year period (2002-2009). A forecasting strategy appropriate for each revenue source was developed resulting in "base case" estimates. An analysis of the sensitivity of these revenue forecasts to a set of alternative fiscal policies by the federal, state, and local governments was carried out. The model forecasts total LHD revenues in 2012 of $170.5 million (in 2010 dollars). By 2014, inflation-adjusted revenues will decline by $8 million, a reduction of 4.7%. Because of population growth, per capita real revenues of LHDs are forecast to decline by 6.6% between 2012 and 2014. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the future of federal funding in support of local public health. A doubling of the reductions in federal grants scheduled under current law would result in an additional $4.4 million decline in LHD revenues in 2014. The impact of the Great Recession continues to haunt LHDs. Multiyear revenue forecasting offers a new financial tool to help LHDs better plan for an environment of declining resources. New revenue sources are needed if sharp drops in public health service delivery are to be avoided.

  8. Population genetics and adaptation to climate along elevation gradients in invasive Solidago canadensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Emily V; Reid, Andrea; Levine, Jonathan M

    2017-01-01

    Gene flow between populations may either support local adaptation by supplying genetic variation on which selection may act, or counteract it if maladapted alleles arrive faster than can be purged by selection. Although both such effects have been documented within plant species' native ranges, how the balance of these forces influences local adaptation in invasive plant populations is less clear, in part because introduced species often have lower genetic variation initially but also tend to have good dispersal abilities. To evaluate the extent of gene flow and adaptation to local climate in invasive populations of Solidago canadensis, and the implications of this for range expansion, we compared population differentiation at microsatellite and chloroplast loci for populations across Switzerland and assessed the effect of environmental transfer distance using common gardens. We found that while patterns of differentiation at neutral genetic markers suggested that populations are connected through extensive pollen and seed movement, common-garden plants nonetheless exhibited modest adaptation to local climate conditions. Growth rate and flower production declined with climatic distance from a plant's home site, with clones from colder home sites performing better at or above the range limit. Such adaptation in invasive species is likely to promote further spread, particularly under climate change, as the genotypes positioned near the range edge may be best able to take advantage of lengthening growing seasons to expand the range.

  9. Population genetics and adaptation to climate along elevation gradients in invasive Solidago canadensis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily V Moran

    Full Text Available Gene flow between populations may either support local adaptation by supplying genetic variation on which selection may act, or counteract it if maladapted alleles arrive faster than can be purged by selection. Although both such effects have been documented within plant species' native ranges, how the balance of these forces influences local adaptation in invasive plant populations is less clear, in part because introduced species often have lower genetic variation initially but also tend to have good dispersal abilities. To evaluate the extent of gene flow and adaptation to local climate in invasive populations of Solidago canadensis, and the implications of this for range expansion, we compared population differentiation at microsatellite and chloroplast loci for populations across Switzerland and assessed the effect of environmental transfer distance using common gardens. We found that while patterns of differentiation at neutral genetic markers suggested that populations are connected through extensive pollen and seed movement, common-garden plants nonetheless exhibited modest adaptation to local climate conditions. Growth rate and flower production declined with climatic distance from a plant's home site, with clones from colder home sites performing better at or above the range limit. Such adaptation in invasive species is likely to promote further spread, particularly under climate change, as the genotypes positioned near the range edge may be best able to take advantage of lengthening growing seasons to expand the range.

  10. Farm Population of the United States: 1977. Current Population Reports: Farm Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Vera J.; DeAre, Diana

    The farm population has declined fairly steadily for more than half a century. By 1970 the proportion of the U.S. population residing on farms had fallen to about 5 per cent, and by 1977 had dropped to 3.6 per cent. About 1.4 per cent of the farm population was of Spanish origin (represented for the first time in this year's report), as compared…

  11. Genetic Diversity of Plasmodium falciparum Populations in Malaria Declining Areas of Sabah, East Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Ridzuan Mohd Abd Razak

    .532. The genetic data from the present study highlighted the limited diversity and contrasting genetic pattern of P. falciparum populations in the malaria declining areas of Sabah.

  12. The 25 parsec local white dwarf population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holberg, J. B.; Oswalt, T. D.; Sion, E. M.; McCook, G. P.

    2016-11-01

    We have extended our detailed survey of the local white dwarf population from 20 to 25 pc, effectively doubling the sample volume, which now includes 232 stars. In the process, new stars within 20 pc have been added, a more uniform set of distance estimates as well as improved spectral and binary classifications are available. The present 25 pc sample is estimated to be about 68 per cent complete (the corresponding 20 pc sample is now 86 per cent complete). The space density of white dwarfs is unchanged at 4.8 ± 0.5 × 10-3 pc-3. This new study includes a white dwarf mass distribution and luminosity function based on the 232 stars in the 25 pc sample. We find a significant excess of single stars over systems containing one or more companions (74 per cent versus 26 per cent). This suggests mechanisms that result in the loss of companions during binary system evolution. In addition, this updated sample exhibits a pronounced deficiency of nearby `Sirius-like' systems. 11 such systems were found within the 20 pc volume versus only one additional system found in the volume between 20 and 25 pc. An estimate of white dwarf birth rates during the last ˜8 Gyr is derived from individual remnant cooling ages. A discussion of likely ways new members of the local sample may be found is provided.

  13. Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

    2015-12-01

    Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

  14. Dynamics of a local badger (Meles meles) population in the Netherlands over the years 1983-2001

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apeldoorn, van R.C.; Vink, J.; Matyástík, T.

    2006-01-01

    Long-term data on badger population dynamics are scarce. For 19 years data on badger and sett numbers were collected by direct observation of a Local population in the province of Utrecht, the Netherlands. Analysis of these data show two different patterns of population growth. The first shows a

  15. Illegal killing for ivory drives global decline in African elephants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittemyer, George; Northrup, Joseph M; Blanc, Julian; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain; Omondi, Patrick; Burnham, Kenneth P

    2014-09-09

    Illegal wildlife trade has reached alarming levels globally, extirpating populations of commercially valuable species. As a driver of biodiversity loss, quantifying illegal harvest is essential for conservation and sociopolitical affairs but notoriously difficult. Here we combine field-based carcass monitoring with fine-scale demographic data from an intensively studied wild African elephant population in Samburu, Kenya, to partition mortality into natural and illegal causes. We then expand our analytical framework to model illegal killing rates and population trends of elephants at regional and continental scales using carcass data collected by a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species program. At the intensively monitored site, illegal killing increased markedly after 2008 and was correlated strongly with the local black market ivory price and increased seizures of ivory destined for China. More broadly, results from application to continental data indicated illegal killing levels were unsustainable for the species between 2010 and 2012, peaking to ∼ 8% in 2011 which extrapolates to ∼ 40,000 elephants illegally killed and a probable species reduction of ∼ 3% that year. Preliminary data from 2013 indicate overharvesting continued. In contrast to the rest of Africa, our analysis corroborates that Central African forest elephants experienced decline throughout the last decade. These results provide the most comprehensive assessment of illegal ivory harvest to date and confirm that current ivory consumption is not sustainable. Further, our approach provides a powerful basis to determine cryptic mortality and gain understanding of the demography of at-risk species.

  16. Declining metal levels at Foundry Cove (Hudson River, New York): Response to localized dredging of contaminated sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackie, Joshua A.; Natali, Susan M.; Levinton, Jeffrey S.; Sanudo-Wilhelmy, Sergio A.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the effectiveness of remediating a well-recognized case of heavy metal pollution at Foundry Cove (FC), Hudson River, New York. This tidal freshwater marsh was polluted with battery-factory wastes (1953-1979) and dredged in 1994-1995. Eight years after remediation, dissolved and particulate metals (Cd, Co, Cu, Pb, Ni, and Ag) were found to be lower than levels in the lower Hudson near New York City. Levels of metals (Co, Ni, Cd) on suspended particles were comparatively high. Concentrations of surface sediment Cd throughout the marsh system remain high, but have decreased both in the dredged and undredged areas: Cd was 2.4-230 mg/kg dw of sediment in 2005 vs. 109-1500 mg/kg in the same area in 1983. The rate of tidal export of Cd from FC has decreased by >300-fold, suggesting that dredging successfully stemmed a major source of Cd to the Hudson River. - Dredging of a hotspot of metal-contaminated sediment is associated with a recognizable local and river-wide decline in cadmium in the Hudson River, New York

  17. Non-native fish introductions and the reversibility of amphibian declines in the Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roland A. Knapp

    2004-01-01

    Amphibians are declining worldwide for a variety of reasons, including habitat alteration, introduction of non-native species, disease, climate change, and environmental contaminants. Amphibians often play important roles in structuring ecosystems, and, as a result, amphibian population declines or extinctions are likely to affect other trophic levels (Matthews and...

  18. GENETIC VARIABILITY OF POLYMESODA EROSA POPULATION IN THE SEGARA ANAKAN CILACAP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AGUS NURYANTO

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Mud clams, Polymesoda erosa, in the Segara Anakan Cilacap are highly exploited by the local communities for daily consumption. This is presumed causing population decline and potentially causing loss of genetic diversity. Genetic diversity level within population can be obtained by population genetic study using molecular marker such as randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD. Here we amplified RAPD marker using ten arbitrary primers to assess genetic diversity of P. erosa population in the Segara Anakan Cilacap to provide genetic data for its sustainable use. The results proved that the use of RAPD marker has high polymorphisms. The mud clam population also showed a high level of heterozygosity and genetic diversity. This has important implication for the management plan towards sustainable use of P. erosa in the Segara Anakan Cilacap.

  19. The case for local food in sustainable food-energy-water systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, J. E.; Zumkehr, A. L.; Yang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Local food systems, which are characterized by foodsheds with small distances between production and consumption ( 100 km), are currently experiencing explosive growth. Local food has largely been assessed within the context of transportation energy. While the effects of local food systems on transportation energy are well studied, broader implications of localization on the food-energy-water nexus are not. Furthermore, little is known about the potential for local food to scale beyond niche markets and meet a significant fraction of total food demand. Here we estimate the upper potential for all existing croplands to meet total U.S. food demand through local food networks. Our spatially explicit land-use model simulates the years 1850 through 2000 and accounts for a wide range of foodshed areas, diets, food waste, population distributions, cropland areas, and crop yields. While we find that the foodshed potential has declined in time, our results also demonstrate an unexpectedly large potential at present for supporting as much as 82% of national food demand within a 50 mile foodshed radius. The decline is associated with extreme pressures from demographic and agronomic trends that if continued could significantly undermine recent national policies focused on food localization. We then apply a life-cycle assessment approach to show that for some crops, irrigation could contribute up to 50% of the cradle-to-gate carbon emissions, thus they may benefit from food localization making use of water from wastewater treatment plants. Our results also show that local food could reduce the water footprint of lettuce by 50%. Our study suggests that exploring future scenarios, beyond assessing historical outcomes, is critical if food-energy-water research is to support sustainable decision making.

  20. Preventing cognitive decline, sedentariness and malnutrition: the DOREMI approach

    OpenAIRE

    Parodi, Oberdan; Vozzi, Federico; Ferro, Erina; Fortunati, Luigi; Micheli, Alessio; Bacciu, Davide; Gallicchio, Claudio; Chessa, Stefano; Ascolese, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    All countries in Europe are experiencing an ageing of their populations, with a decrease in the number of people of working age per retiree. Health trends among the elderly are mixed: severe disability is declining in some countries but increasing in others, while mild disability and chronic disease are generally increasing. As a consequence, long-term care costs are certain to increase with the ageing of the population, unless appropriate measures are implemented and elderly people empowered...

  1. Embryo Localization Enhances the Survival of Acidovorax citrulli in Watermelon Seeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Bhabesh; Schneider, Raymond W; Robertson, Clark L; Walcott, Ronald R

    2016-04-01

    Acidovorax citrulli, the causal agent of bacterial fruit blotch (BFB) of cucurbits has been observed to survive for >34 years in stored melon and watermelon seeds. To better understand this remarkable longevity, we investigated the bacterium's tolerance to desiccation and the effect of bacterial localization in different watermelon seed tissues on its survival. We compared the ability of A. citrulli to tolerate desiccation on filter paper discs and on host (watermelon) and nonhost (cabbage, corn and tomato) seeds to two seedborne (Xanthomonas campestris pv. campestris and Pantoea stewartii subsp. stewartii) and one soilborne (Ralstonia solanacearum) plant-pathogenic bacteria. A. citrulli survival on dry filter paper (>12 weeks) was similar to that of X. campestris pv. campestris but longer than P. stewartii subsp. stewartii. Ralstonia solanacearum survived longer than all other bacteria tested. On all seeds tested, A. citrulli and X. campestris pv. campestris populations declined by 5 orders of magnitude after 12 weeks of incubation at 4°C and 50% relative humidity, while R. solanacearum populations declined by 3 orders. P. stewartii subsp. stewartii was not recovered after 12 weeks of incubation. To determine the effect of tissue localization on bacterial survival, watermelon seeds infested with A. citrulli by flower stigma inoculation (resulting in bacterial localization in the embryo/endosperm) or by ovary pericarp inoculations (resulting in bacterial localization under the testa) were treated with peroxyacetic acid or chlorine (Cl2) gas. Following these treatments, a significantly higher reduction in BFB seed-to-seedling transmission was observed for seeds generated by ovary pericarp inoculation (≥89.5%) than for those generated by stigma inoculation (≤76.5%) (Pseed coat, suggesting that tissue localization is important for bacterial survival in seed. This observation was confirmed when P. stewartii subsp. stewartii survived significantly longer in stigma

  2. Savoir-faire des populations locales des taxons du Jardin Botanique ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SARAH

    2 sept. 2013 ... RÉSUMÉ. Objectif : En vu de connaître l'usage des espèces végétales du Jardin Botanique de Bingerville par les populations locales, diverses activités de recherche ont été réalisées. Méthodologies et résultats : Le recensement de la flore a été effectué et a permis d'enregistrer 419 taxons. A l'issue d'une ...

  3. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    Biodiversity; global change; globalization; population and land use; sustainable ... School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110 067, India .... Ghat region to meet international market demands is an example ...

  4. Predisposition to bark beetle attack by root herbivores and associated pathogens: Roles in forest decline, gap formation, and persistence of endemic bark beetle populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aukema, Brian H.; Zhu, Jun; Møller, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    , however, due to the requirement of long-term monitoring and high degrees of spatial and temporal covariance. We censused more than 2700 trees annually over 7 years, and at the end of 17 years, in a mature red pine plantation. Trees were measured for the presence of bark beetles and wood borers that breed...... within the primary stem, root weevils that breed in root collars, and bark beetles that breed in basal stems. We quantify the sequence of events that drive this decline syndrome, with the primary emergent pattern being an interaction between below- and above-ground herbivores and their fungal symbionts......, and elevated temperature slightly accentuates this effect. New gaps can arise from such trees as they subsequently become epicenters for the full complex of organisms associated with this decline, but this is not common. As Ips populations rise, there is some element of positive feedback...

  5. Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060. Population Estimates and Projections. Current Population Reports. P25-1143

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colby, Sandra L.; Ortman, Jennifer M.

    2015-01-01

    Between 2014 and 2060, the U.S. population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million, reaching 400 million in 2051. The U.S. population is projected to grow more slowly in future decades than in the recent past, as these projections assume that fertility rates will continue to decline and that there will be a modest decline in the…

  6. Rapidly shifting baselines in Yangtze fishing communities and local memory of extinct species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turvey, Samuel T; Barrett, Leigh A; Yujiang, Hao; Lei, Zhang; Xinqiao, Zhang; Xianyan, Wang; Yadong, Huang; Kaiya, Zhou; Hart, Tom; Ding, Wang

    2010-06-01

    Local ecological knowledge can provide a unique source of data for conservation, especially in efforts to investigate the status of rare or possibly extinct species, but it is unlikely to remain constant over time. Loss of perspective about past ecological conditions caused by lack of communication between generations may create "shifting baseline syndrome," in which younger generations are less aware of local species diversity or abundance in the recent past. This phenomenon has been widely discussed, but has rarely been examined quantitatively. We present new evidence of shifting baselines in local perception of regional species declines and on the duration of "community memory" of extinct species on the basis of extensive interviews with fishers in communities across the middle-lower Yangtze basin. Many Yangtze species have experienced major declines in recent decades, and the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) and Yangtze paddlefish (Psephurus gladius) may have become extinct during the 21(st) century. Although informants across all age classes were strongly aware of the Yangtze ecosystem's escalating resource depletion and environmental degradation, older informants were more likely to recognize declines in two commercially important fish species, Reeves' shad (Tenualosa reevesii) and Yangtze pufferfish (Takifugu fasciatus), and to have encountered baiji and paddlefish in the past. Age was also a strong predictor of whether informants had even heard of baiji or paddlefish, with younger informants being substantially less likely to recognize either species. A marked decrease in local knowledge about the Yangtze freshwater megafauna matched the time of major population declines of these species from the 1970s onwards, and paddlefish were already unknown to over 70% of all informants below the age of 40 and to those who first started fishing after 1995. This rapid rate of cultural baseline shift suggests that once even megafaunal species cease to

  7. Population Profile of the United States: 1976. Current Population Reports, Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 307.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bureau of the Census (DOC), Suitland, MD. Population Div.

    This booklet summarizes population characteristics of the United States for 1976. A preliminary section of highlights reviews trends in five areas: population growth, social characteristics, population distribution, employment and income, and ethnic groups. The birth rate has declined, and the rate of childlessness has risen. This probably is due…

  8. Reef-scale trends in Florida Acropora spp. abundance and the effects of population enhancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret W. Miller

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Since the listing of Acropora palmata and A. cervicornis under the US Endangered Species Act in 2006, increasing investments have been made in propagation of listed corals (primarily A. cervicornis, A. palmata to a much lesser extent in offshore coral nurseries and outplanting cultured fragments to reef habitats. This investment is superimposed over a spatiotemporal patchwork of ongoing disturbances (especially storms, thermal bleaching, and disease as well as the potential for natural population recovery. In 2014 and 2015, we repeated broad scale (>50 ha, low precision Acropora spp. censuses (i.e., direct observation by snorkelers documented via handheld GPS originally conducted in appropriate reef habitats during 2005–2007 to evaluate the trajectory of local populations and the effect of population enhancement. Over the decade-long study, A. palmata showed a cumulative proportional decline of 0.4 –0.7x in colony density across all sites, despite very low levels of outplanting at some sites. A. cervicornis showed similar proportional declines at sites without outplanting. In contrast, sites that received A. cervicornis outplants showed a dramatic increase in density (over 13x. Indeed, change in A. cervicornis colony density was significantly positively correlated with cumulative numbers of outplants across sites. This study documents a substantive reef-scale benefit of Acropora spp. population enhancement in the Florida Keys, when performed at adequate levels, against a backdrop of ongoing population decline.

  9. Genetic variability in captive populations of the stingless bee Tetragonisca angustula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, Leandro R; Francisco, Flávio O; Jaffé, Rodolfo; Arias, Maria C

    2016-08-01

    Low genetic variability has normally been considered a consequence of animal husbandry and a major contributing factor to declining bee populations. Here, we performed a molecular analysis of captive and wild populations of the stingless bee Tetragonisca angustula, one of the most commonly kept species across South America. Microsatellite analyses showed similar genetic variability between wild and captive populations However, captive populations showed lower mitochondrial genetic variability. Male-mediated gene flow, transport and division of nests are suggested as the most probable explanations for the observed patterns of genetic structure. We conclude that increasing the number of colonies kept through nest divisions does not negatively affect nuclear genetic variability, which seems to be maintained by small-scale male dispersal and human-mediated nest transport. However, the transport of nests from distant localities should be practiced with caution given the high genetic differentiation observed between samples from western and eastern areas. The high genetic structure verified is the result of a long-term evolutionary process, and bees from distant localities may represent unique evolutionary lineages.

  10. Population pressures in Latin America. [Updated reprint].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrick, T W

    1991-04-01

    This publication examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II, and considers their social and economic impact on the region. The paper looks at the following demographic trends: population growth, fertility, death rate, internal migration, international migration, and age structure. It also examines other factors such as marriage and family structure, and employment and education. Furthermore, the publication provides a discussion of the relationship between population growth and economic development from both a neo-Malthusian and Structuralist view. Finally, the paper considers the region's current population policies and future population prospects. From 1950-65, annual population growth averaged 2.8%, which decreased moderately to 2.4% from 1965-85. The report identified 3 population growth patterns in the region: 1) countries which experienced early and gradual declines in birth and death rates and generally lower population growth rates (the group includes Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, with Chile and Panama also closely fitting the description); 2) countries which underwent rapid declines in birth rate during the 1950s and which began experiencing declines in the birth rate after 1960 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela, with Ecuador and Peru as borderline cases); and 3) countries which didn't begin to experience declines in mortality rates until relatively late and which lag behind in fertility declines (Bolivia, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua). Although population growth has slowed and will continue to fall, UN projections do not expect the population to stabilize until late in the 21st Century.

  11. Neotropical Amphibian Declines Affect Stream Ecosystem Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connelly, S.; Pringle, C. M.; Bixby, R. J.; Whiles, M. R.; Lips, K. R.; Brenes, R.; Colon-Gaud, J. C.; Kilham, S.; Hunte-Brown, M.

    2005-05-01

    Global declines of amphibians are well documented, yet effects of these dramatic losses on ecosystem structure and function are poorly understood. As part of a larger collaborative project, we compared two upland Panamanian streams. Both streams are biologically and geologically similar; however, one stream (Fortuna) has recently experienced almost complete extirpation of stream-dwelling frogs, while the other (Cope) still has intact populations. We experimentally excluded tadpoles from localized areas in each stream. We then compared chlorophyll a, algal community composition, ash-free dry mass (AFDM), inorganic matter, and insect assemblages in control and exclusion areas. Additionally, we sampled the natural substrate of both streams monthly for chlorophyll a, algal community composition, AFDM, and inorganic matter. At Cope, chlorophyll a, AFDM, and inorganic matter were greater in areas where tadpoles were excluded than in their presence. Numbers of dominant algal species (e.g., Nupela praecipua and Eunotia siolii) were greater in the exclusion versus control treatments. Monthly sampling of natural substrate indicated higher chlorophyll a and AFDM at Cope compared to Fortuna. Our data suggest that stream-dwelling anuran larvae have significant impacts on algal communities. These results also have implications for predicting the relevance of short-term experimental manipulations to long-term, whole-stream processes.

  12. Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

    1998-11-01

    We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

  13. Molecular characterization of six sub population Indonesian local goats based on mitochondrial DNA D-loop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aron Batubara

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Indonesian local goats were spread in some region, but there was still limited data’s known about the characteristics of its genetic diversity and origin. The Mitochondrial DNA D-loop sequences were used to study the genetic diversity and relationships of six sub population Indonesian local goats, namely, Kacang, Marica, Samosir, Jawarandu, Muara and Bengali goats. From 539 blood samples and DNA extraction collections were selected about 60 samples (10 samples each sub populations analyzed by PCR-RFLP methods, followed sequence analyzed about 5 PCR products each sub population. The results of the sequence analyses were edited and acquired about 957 bp of nucleotides length. After the alignment analyses were found 50 polymorphic sites which divided into 19 haplotype groups of mtDNA D-loop region. The value of nucleotide diversity was 0.014 ± 0.002. Analysis of Neighbour Joining with Kimura 2 Parameter methods and bootstrap test with 1000 replication indicated that each sub population groups was significantly different between one groups to the others. The maternal lineages origin of six breeds of Indonesian local goats was included to the group of lineage B. The Lineage B was the maternal origin of the haplogroup of goats in the region of East Asia, South Asia, China, Mongolia, North and South Africa, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan and India.

  14. Mangrove forest decline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malik, Abdul; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    Mangrove forests in the tropics and subtropics grow in saline sediments in coastal and estuarine environments. Preservation of mangrove forests is important for many reasons, including the prevention of coastal erosion and seawater intrusion; the provision of spawning, nursery, and feeding grounds...... of diverse marine biota; and for direct use (such as firewood, charcoal, and construction material)—all of which benefit the sustainability of local communities. However, for many mangrove areas of the world, unsustainable resource utilization and the profit orientation of communities have often led to rapid...... and severe mangrove loss with serious consequences. The mangrove forests of the Takalar District, South Sulawesi, are studied here as a case area that has suffered from degradation and declining spatial extent during recent decades. On the basis of a post-classification comparison of change detection from...

  15. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  16. No evidence for effects of infection with the amphibian chytrid fungus on populations of yellow-bellied toads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Norman; Neubeck, Claus; Guicking, Daniela; Finke, Lennart; Wittich, Martin; Weising, Kurt; Geske, Christian; Veith, Michael

    2017-02-08

    The parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) can cause the lethal disease chytridiomycosis in amphibians and therefore may play a role in population declines. The yellow-bellied toad Bombina variegata suffered strong declines throughout western and northwestern parts of its range and is therefore listed as highly endangered for Germany and the federal state of Hesse. Whether chytridiomycosis may play a role in the observed local declines of this strictly protected anuran species has never been tested. We investigated 19 Hessian yellow-bellied toad populations for Bd infection rates, conducted capture-mark-recapture studies in 4 of them over 2 to 3 yr, examined survival histories of recaptured infected individuals, and tested whether multi-locus heterozygosity of individuals as well as expected heterozygosity and different environmental variables of populations affect probabilities of Bd infection. Our results show high prevalence of Bd infection in Hessian yellow-bellied toad populations, but although significant decreases in 2 populations could be observed, no causative link to Bd as the reason for this can be established. Mass mortalities or obvious signs of disease in individuals were not observed. Conversely, we show that growth of Bd-infected populations is possible under favorable habitat conditions and that most infected individuals could be recaptured with improved body indices. Neither genetic diversity nor environmental variables appeared to affect Bd infection probabilities. Hence, genetically diverse amphibian specimens and populations may not automatically be less susceptible for Bd infection.

  17. Enigmatic declines in bird numbers in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador may be a consequence of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John G. Blake

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Bird populations have declined in many parts of the world but most of those declines can be attributed to effects of human activities (e.g., habitat fragmentation; declines in areas unaffected by human activities are not common. We have been sampling bird populations at an undisturbed site in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador annually since 2001 using a combination of mist nets and direct observations on two 100-ha plots. Bird numbers fluctuated on both plots during the first 8 years but did not show a consistent pattern of change. Since about 2008, numbers of birds on both plots have declined; capture rates in 2014 were ∼40% less than at the start of the study and observation rates were ∼50% less. Both understory and canopy species declined in abundance. Overall, insectivores showed the most pronounced declines but declines varied among trophic groups. The period from 2008 onward also was a period of stronger La Niña events which, at this study site, are associated with increased rainfall. The mechanism for the declines is not known but likely reflects a combination of reduced reproductive success coupled with reduced survival associated with changing climate.

  18. Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C Guilherme; Toledo, Luís Felipe

    2017-02-08

    The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd 's global emergence , further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd -screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd -infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979-1987). We also found that clusters of Bd -positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. © 2017 The Author(s).

  19. Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C. Guilherme

    2017-01-01

    The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd's global emergence, further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd-screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd-infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979–1987). We also found that clusters of Bd-positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. PMID:28179514

  20. Theoretical explanations of the rapid fertility decline in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C

    1986-07-01

    A 1982 population census recorded China's fertility rate in 1982 at 2.6; recent statistics of China's State Statistics Bureau record China's 1984 birth rate at 17 per 1000 and the total fertility rate at 1.94. Wu Cangping asserts that this world-recognized rapid fertility decline is not due to any compulsory governmental restrictions on fertility, but to the people's willingness to control fertility voluntarily. He cites a number of socioeconomic factors contributing to this voluntary decline in China's birth rates: 1) change of family function; 2) decline of mortality, particularly infant mortality; 3) improvement in the educational level; 4) improvement in women's social status, especially increased employment; 5) better social security services for the elderly; 6) the preference for modern ways of production and life; and 7) the availability of information on population and birth control. He attributes these factors to the socialist system with its nationalized production, centralized planning of the national economy, and the even distribution system which prevents polarization of earning. In addition, reforms have been carried out in all aspects of social life and recent advances have been made in science and technology. All of these factors have resulted in a more rapid fertility transition in China as compared to that of developed countries in their past and that of developing countries at present.

  1. Decline traffic information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Plessis, K [Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Sydney (Australia)

    2007-09-06

    BHP Billion (BHPB) Cannington has experienced problems in regards to their traffic flow in the decline at the mine. The problems related to reports on near misses of vehicles moving towards each other in the decline. The decline is also to narrow for trucks to pass each other and the operators need to be aware of oncoming traffic in the decline to ensure they could take early evasive steps to ensure the rules of right of way in the decline are adhered to. BHPB Cannington requested CSC to conduct a problem analysis and to provide a solutions proposal to Cannington. The solution was put forward as an augmentation of their current safety procedures used with in the decline. During this phase of the project CSC developed a solutions architecture which involved the use of Active (Radio Frequency Identification) RFID tagging which will enable vehicle movement tracking on a real time basis after which the appropriate traffic movement can be relayed to the operators in the decline. The primary objective of the DTIS is to provide accurate information of traffic movement in the decline and present that information to the operators of the decline IN THE DECLINE upon which they would make their decisions. (orig.)

  2. Age-related declines and disease-associated variation in immune cell telomere length in a wild mammal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Beirne

    Full Text Available Immunosenescence, the deterioration of immune system capability with age, may play a key role in mediating age-related declines in whole-organism performance, but the mechanisms that underpin immunosenescence are poorly understood. Biomedical research on humans and laboratory models has documented age and disease related declines in the telomere lengths of leukocytes ('immune cells', stimulating interest their having a potentially general role in the emergence of immunosenescent phenotypes. However, it is unknown whether such observations generalise to the immune cell populations of wild vertebrates living under ecologically realistic conditions. Here we examine longitudinal changes in the mean telomere lengths of immune cells in wild European badgers (Meles meles. Our findings provide the first evidence of within-individual age-related declines in immune cell telomere lengths in a wild vertebrate. That the rate of age-related decline in telomere length appears to be steeper within individuals than at the overall population level raises the possibility that individuals with short immune cell telomeres and/or higher rates of immune cell telomere attrition may be selectively lost from this population. We also report evidence suggestive of associations between immune cell telomere length and bovine tuberculosis infection status, with individuals detected at the most advanced stage of infection tending to have shorter immune cell telomeres than disease positive individuals. While male European badgers are larger and show higher rates of annual mortality than females, we found no evidence of a sex difference in either mean telomere length or the average rate of within-individual telomere attrition with age. Our findings lend support to the view that age-related declines in the telomere lengths of immune cells may provide one potentially general mechanism underpinning age-related declines in immunocompetence in natural populations.

  3. Detecting population recovery using gametic disequilibrium-based effective population size estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A. Tallmon; Robin S. Waples; Dave Gregovich; Michael K. Schwartz

    2012-01-01

    Recovering populations often must meet specific growth rate or abundance targets before their legal status can be changed from endangered or threatened. While the efficacy, power, and performance of population metrics to infer trends in declining populations has received considerable attention, how these same metrics perform when populations are increasing is less...

  4. Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph O Ogutu

    Full Text Available There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya's land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72-88% and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson's gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy's zebra and waterbuck in Kenya's rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2% but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%, camels (13.1% and donkeys (6.7% evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011-2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977-1980. Most of Kenya's wildlife (ca. 30% occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total "national" wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate wildlife

  5. Consumption of locally grown foods by the populations residing near nuclear power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathieu, P.Y.

    1980-01-01

    The studies carried out by the Geographical Institute of Aix-en-Provence and the B.E.G.E.A. are in three forms: the first studies the local rural production (farming, animal rearing and fishing); the second is concerned with the food intake of the population within a radius of 5 to 10 km around the site; the third consists in working out a soil utilization map covering an area of about 2500 hectares around the site in order to determine the agricultural and urban areas as well as the open spaces, and the exact sort of cultivation carried out, plot by plot. The map also represents all the phenomena concerning hydrography, irrigation, watering and the supply of potable water. All these studies concern only a few parishes and enable an accurate knowledge of the environment to be acquired. The food studies seek an order of magnitude of the amount of local produce consumed by the populations of the nuclear power station sites with a view to determining radioactive contamination levels. The results show the specific food consumption features of a population bearing the deep stamp of its environment and its rural origin [fr

  6. A retrospective analysis of pollen host plant use by stable and declining bumble bee species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijn, D.; Raemakers, I.P.

    2008-01-01

    Understanding population declines has been the objective of a wide range of ecological studies. When species have become rare such studies are complicated because particular behavior or life history traits may be the cause but also the result of the decline of a species. We approached this problem

  7. White ash (Fraxinus americana) decline and mortality: the role of site nutrition and stress history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alejandro A. Royo; Kathleen S. Knight

    2012-01-01

    Over the past century, white ash (Fraxinus americana) populations throughout its range have deteriorated as a result of declining tree health and increased mortality rates. Although co-occurring factors including site nutritional deficiencies and punctuated stress events (e.g., defoliations, drought) are hypothesized to trigger white ash decline,...

  8. Demographic Decline and Growth in Baja California during the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries. A Look at Census and Local Registers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dení Trejo Barajas

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The indigenous population of Baja California was  reduced  significantly  during the missionary period. However, in the  early­ nineteenth century the  declining demographic trend that led these peoples to extinction began to revert. The immigration of groups  that settled in the  former missions, in nearby ranches, along  the  coasts  and  in  the  mining regions  in  the   Southern part of the península gave place  to an unstable but important demographic growth in the region. This work reviews this de­mographic rocess in its different stages, by  analyzing the  cen­sus and regtsters of religious and civil  authorities of  the  Baja California península.

  9. Decline in Mycobacterium bovis and Brucella abortus populations during the maturation of experimentally contaminated parmesan-type cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina Ramirez Starikoff

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian legislation allows the manufacture of raw milk cheese with a maturation exceeding 60 days at room temperature above 5°C, but there is a lack of solid scientific evidence on the efficacy of this maturation process in inactivating important pathogens that may be present in milk, such as Mycobacterium bovis and Brucella abortus. Thus, the objectives of this study were to produce parmesan-type cheese experimentally contaminated with M. bovis and B. abortus and evaluate the survival of these pathogens along 2-month maturation. Parmesan-type cheese was manufactured in the laboratory using whole pasteurized milk with or without inoculation with M. bovis (SB1033 or B. abortus (1119-3 and matured at 18°C for up to 63 days. M. bovis was inoculated in Stonebrink-Leslie medium supplemented with antibiotics and incubated at 37°C for 45 days, and B. abortus was incubated in Farrel medium at 36°C for 3 days. The average D18°C value, weighted by variance, was 37.5 ± 5.3 days for M. bovis and 5.9 ± 0.7 days for B. abortus. The average physicochemical parameters in the cheese at the end of the study were as follows: pH = 4.89, water activity = 0.976, and moisture percentage = 43.1%. The pH might have contributed to the reduction in the population of B. abortus but seems not to have influenced the population of M. bovis. We conclude that the duration of the maturation process influences the size of the surviving populations of M. bovis and B. abortus, and that the shortening of the maturation duration might not ensure a decline in pathogen levels to safe levels. Thus, complementary studies considering the effect of several other technological aspects on the survival of these pathogens are required, including the effect of the lactic acid bacterial population, salt content, and temperature of maturation.

  10. Local ecological knowledge and scientific data reveal overexploitation by multigear artisanal fisheries in the southwestern Atlantic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana G Bender

    Full Text Available In the last decades, a number of studies based on historical records revealed the diversity loss in the oceans and human-induced changes to marine ecosystems. These studies have improved our understanding of the human impacts in the oceans. They also drew attention to the shifting baseline syndrome and the importance of assessing appropriate sources of data in order to build the most reliable environmental baseline. Here we amassed information from artisanal fishermen's local ecological knowledge, fisheries landing data and underwater visual census to assess the decline of fish species in Southeastern Brazil. Interviews with 214 fishermen from line, beach seine and spearfishing revealed a sharp decline in abundance of the bluefish Pomatomus saltatrix, the groupers Epinephelus marginatus, Mycteroperca acutirostris, M. bonaci and M. microlepis, and large parrotfishes in the past six decades. Fisheries landing data from a 16-year period support the decline of bluefish as pointed by fishermen's local knowledge, while underwater visual census campaigns show reductions in groupers' abundance and a sharp population decline of the Brazilian endemic parrotfish Scarus trispinosus. Despite the marked decline of these fisheries, younger and less experienced fishermen recognized fewer species as overexploited and fishing sites as depleted than older and more experienced fishermen, indicating the occurrence of the shifting baseline syndrome. Here we show both the decline of multigear fisheries catches - combining anecdotal and scientific data - as well as changes in environmental perceptions over generations of fishermen. Managing ocean resources requires looking into the past, and into traditional knowledge, bringing historical baselines to the present and improving public awareness.

  11. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    Biodiversity; global change; globalization; population and land use; sustainable landscape management; traditional ecological management ... biodiversity on which they are dependant for their livelihood, there is an urgent need to explore additional pathways for ...... the upland central region of Mexico, as a response to.

  12. Habitat split and the global decline of amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Carlos Guilherme; Fonseca, Carlos Roberto; Haddad, Célio Fernando Baptista; Batista, Rômulo Fernandes; Prado, Paulo Inácio

    2007-12-14

    The worldwide decline in amphibians has been attributed to several causes, especially habitat loss and disease. We identified a further factor, namely "habitat split"-defined as human-induced disconnection between habitats used by different life history stages of a species-which forces forest-associated amphibians with aquatic larvae to make risky breeding migrations between suitable aquatic and terrestrial habitats. In the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we found that habitat split negatively affects the richness of species with aquatic larvae but not the richness of species with terrestrial development (the latter can complete their life cycle inside forest remnants). This mechanism helps to explain why species with aquatic larvae have the highest incidence of population decline. These findings reinforce the need for the conservation and restoration of riparian vegetation.

  13. The population ecology of contemporary adaptations: what empirical studies reveal about the conditions that promote adaptive evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reznick, D N; Ghalambor, C K

    2001-01-01

    Under what conditions might organisms be capable of rapid adaptive evolution? We reviewed published studies documenting contemporary adaptations in natural populations and looked for general patterns in the population ecological causes. We found that studies of contemporary adaptation fall into two general settings: (1) colonization of new environments that established newly adapted populations, and (2) local adaptations within the context of a heterogeneous environments and metapopulation structure. Local ecological processes associated with colonizations and introductions included exposure to: (1) a novel host or food resource; (2) a new biophysical environment; (3) a new predator community; and (4) a new coexisting competitor. The new environments that were colonized often had depauperate communities, sometimes because of anthropogenic disturbance. Local adaptation in heterogeneous environments was also often associated with recent anthropogenic changes, such as insecticide and herbicide resistance, or industrial melanism. A common feature of many examples is the combination of directional selection with at least a short-term opportunity for population growth. We suggest that such opportunities for population growth may be a key factor that promotes rapid evolution, since directional selection might otherwise be expected to cause population decline and create the potential for local extinction, which is an ever-present alternative to local adaptation. We also address the large discrepancy between the rate of evolution observed in contemporary studies and the apparent rate of evolution seen in the fossil record.

  14. Anthropogenically-Mediated Density Dependence in a Declining Farmland Bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny C Dunn

    Full Text Available Land management intrinsically influences the distribution of animals and can consequently alter the potential for density-dependent processes to act within populations. For declining species, high densities of breeding territories are typically considered to represent productive populations. However, as density-dependent effects of food limitation or predator pressure may occur (especially when species are dependent upon separate nesting and foraging habitats, high territory density may limit per-capita productivity. Here, we use a declining but widespread European farmland bird, the yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella L., as a model system to test whether higher territory densities result in lower fledging success, parental provisioning rates or nestling growth rates compared to lower densities. Organic landscapes held higher territory densities, but nests on organic farms fledged fewer nestlings, translating to a 5 times higher rate of population shrinkage on organic farms compared to conventional. In addition, when parental provisioning behaviour was not restricted by predation risk (i.e., at times of low corvid activity, nestling provisioning rates were higher at lower territory densities, resulting in a much greater increase in nestling mass in low density areas, suggesting that food limitation occurred at high densities. These findings in turn suggest an ecological trap, whereby preferred nesting habitat does not provide sufficient food for rearing nestlings at high population density, creating a population sink. Habitat management for farmland birds should focus not simply on creating a high nesting density, but also on ensuring heterogeneous habitats to provide food resources in close proximity to nesting birds, even if this occurs through potentially restricting overall nest density but increasing population-level breeding success.

  15. Contribution of alpha- and beta-defensins to lung function decline and infection in smokers: an association study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthonisen Nicholas R

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Alpha-defensins, which are major constituents of neutrophil azurophilic granules, and beta-defensins, which are expressed in airway epithelial cells, could contribute to the pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by amplifying cigarette smoke-induced and infection-induced inflammatory reactions leading to lung injury. In Japanese and Chinese populations, two different beta-defensin-1 polymorphisms have been associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease phenotypes. We conducted population-based association studies to test whether alpha-defensin and beta-defensin polymorphisms influenced smokers' susceptibility to lung function decline and susceptibility to lower respiratory infection in two groups of white participants in the Lung Health Study (275 = fast decline in lung function and 304 = no decline in lung function. Methods Subjects were genotyped for the alpha-defensin-1/alpha-defensin-3 copy number polymorphism and four beta-defensin-1 polymorphisms (G-20A, C-44G, G-52A and Val38Ile. Results There were no associations between individual polymorphisms or imputed haplotypes and rate of decline in lung function or susceptibility to infection. Conclusion These findings suggest that, in a white population, the defensin polymorphisms tested may not be of importance in determining who develops abnormally rapid lung function decline or is susceptible to developing lower respiratory infections.

  16. Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinkel, Martina

    2013-04-01

    Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

  17. The canary in the coalmine; bee declines as an indicator of environmental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulson, Dave; Nicholls, Elizabeth

    2016-09-01

    Bee declines have received much attention of late, but there is considerable debate and confusion as to the extent, significance and causes of declines. In part, this reflects conflation of data for domestic honeybees, numbers of which are largely driven by economic factors, with those for wild bees, many of which have undergone marked range contractions but for the majority of which we have no good data on population size. There is no doubt that bees are subject to numerous pressures in the modern world. The abundance and diversity of flowers has declined along with availability of suitable nest sites, bees are chronically exposed to cocktails of agrochemicals, and they are simultaneously exposed to novel parasites and pathogens accidentally spread by humans. Climate change is likely to exacerbate these problems in the future, particularly for cool- climate specialists such as bumblebees. Stressors do not act in isolation; for example pesticide exposure can impair both detoxification mechanisms and immune responses, rendering bees more susceptible to parasites. It seems certain that chronic exposure to multiple, interacting stressors is driving honeybee colony losses and declines of wild pollinators. Bees have a high profile and so their travails attract attention, but these same stressors undoubtedly bear upon other wild organisms, many of which are not monitored and have few champions. Those wild insects for which we do have population data (notably butterflies and moths) are overwhelmingly also in decline. We argue that bee declines are indicators of pervasive and ongoing environmental damage that is likely to impact broadly on biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides.

  18. Declining Enrollments: A New Dilemma for Educators. Fastback 116.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keough, William F., Jr.

    Twenty years after the baby boom, U.S. population is falling and school enrollment is declining. Contrary to public expectations, smaller enrollment does not mean smaller school budgets, and balancing the educational budget will require cutting programs, closing schools, and reducing teacher force. The experience of the East Meadow (New York)…

  19. Analysis of correlation structure in Lymantria dispar L. larvae from locally adapted populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mrdaković Marija

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The influence of allelochemical stress and population origin on the patterns of phenotypic and genetic correlations among life history traits and digestive enzyme activities were investigated in larvae of the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.; Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae. Thirty-two full-sib families from oak (suitable host plant, Quercus population, and twenty-six full-sib families from locust-tree (unsuitable host plant, Robinia population forests were reared on an artificial diet, with or without a 5% tannic acid supplement. Comparison of correlation matrices revealed significant similarity between the two populations in the structure of phenotypic and genetic correlations of life history traits and of digestive enzyme activities. The patterns of correlations of the examined traits, within each of the two locally adapted populations and in the presence of allelochemical stress, remained stabile despite the different selection pressures that mold these traits. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 173027

  20. Geriatric Assessment and Functional Decline in Older Patients with Lung Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decoster, L; Kenis, C; Schallier, D; Vansteenkiste, J; Nackaerts, K; Vanacker, L; Vandewalle, N; Flamaing, J; Lobelle, J P; Milisen, K; De Grève, J; Wildiers, H

    2017-10-01

    Older patients with lung cancer are a heterogeneous population making treatment decisions complex. This study aims to evaluate the value of geriatric assessment (GA) as well as the evolution of functional status (FS) in older patients with lung cancer, and to identify predictors associated with functional decline and overall survival (OS). At baseline, GA was performed in patients ≥70 years with newly diagnosed lung cancer. FS measured by activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) was reassessed at follow-up to define functional decline and OS was collected. Predictors for functional decline and OS were determined. Two hundred and forty-five patients were included in this study. At baseline, GA deficiencies were present in all domains and ADL and IADL were impaired in 51 and 63% of patients, respectively. At follow-up, functional decline in ADL was observed in 23% and in IADL in 45% of patients. In multivariable analysis, radiotherapy was predictive for ADL decline. No other predictors for ADL or IADL decline were identified. Stage and baseline performance status were predictive for OS. Older patients with lung cancer present with multiple deficiencies covering all geriatric domains. During treatment, functional decline is observed in almost half of the patients. None of the specific domains of the GA were predictive for functional decline or survival, probably because of the high impact of the aggressiveness of this tumor type leading to a poor prognosis.

  1. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  2. Effects of experimental removal of Barred Owls on population demography of Northern Spotted Owls in Washington and Oregon—2017 progress report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiens, J. David; Dugger, Katie M.; Lesmeister, Damon B.; Dilione, Krista E.; Simon, David C.

    2018-05-21

    Populations of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina; hereinafter referred to as Spotted Owl) are declining throughout this subspecies’ geographic range. Evidence indicates that competition with invading populations of Barred Owls (S. varia) has contributed significantly to those declines. A pilot study in California showed that localized removal of Barred Owls coupled with conservation of suitable forest conditions can slow or even reverse population declines of Spotted Owls. It remains unknown, however, whether similar results can be obtained in areas with different forest conditions, greater densities of Barred Owls, and fewer remaining Spotted Owls. During 2015–17, we initiated a before-after-control-impact (BACI) experiment at three study areas in Oregon and Washington to determine if removal of Barred Owls can improve population trends of Spotted Owls. Each study area had at least 20 years of pre-treatment demographic data on Spotted Owls, and represented different forest conditions occupied by the two owl species in the Pacific Northwest. This report describes research accomplishments and preliminary results from the first 2.5 years (March 2015–August 2017) of the planned 5-year experiment.

  3. The Middle East population puzzle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omran, A R; Roudi, F

    1993-07-01

    An overview is provided of Middle Eastern countries on the following topics; population change, epidemiological transition theory and 4 patterns of transition in the middle East, transition in causes of death, infant mortality declines, war mortality, fertility, family planning, age and sex composition, ethnicity, educational status, urbanization, labor force, international labor migration, refugees, Jewish immigration, families, marriage patterns, and future growth. The Middle East is geographically defined as Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Gaza and the West Bank, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. The Middle East's population grew very little until 1990 when the population was 43 million. Population was about doubled in the mid-1950s at 80 million. Rapid growth occurred after 1950 with declines in mortality due to widespread disease control and sanitation efforts. Countries are grouped in the following ways: persistent high fertility and declining mortality with low to medium socioeconomic conditions (Jordan, Oman, Syria, Yemen, and the West Bank and Gaza), declining fertility and mortality in intermediate socioeconomic development (Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iran), high fertility and declining mortality in high socioeconomic conditions (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), and low fertility and mortality in average socioeconomic conditions (Israel). As birth and death rates decline, there is an accompanying shift from communicable diseases to degenerative diseases and increases in life expectancy; this pattern is reflected in the available data from Egypt, Kuwait, and Israel. High infant and child mortality tends to remain a problem throughout the Middle East, with the exception of Israel and the Gulf States. War casualties are undetermined, yet have not impeded the fastest growing population growth rate in the world. The average fertility is 5 births

  4. Reliability of genetic bottleneck tests for detecting recent population declines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peery, M. Zachariah; Kirby, Rebecca; Reid, Brendan N.; Stoelting, Ricka; Doucet-Beer, Elena; Robinson, Stacie; Vasquez-Carrillo, Catalina; Pauli, Jonathan N.; Palsboll, Per J.

    The identification of population bottlenecks is critical in conservation because populations that have experienced significant reductions in abundance are subject to a variety of genetic and demographic processes that can hasten extinction. Genetic bottleneck tests constitute an appealing and

  5. Alternative population futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    The Philippines is now passing through a late demographic transitional period in which the death rate declines while the birth rate remains at a relatively high level; the population of young people under 15 rises to about 45% of the population while proportions of people of working age and old people decline. In 1970, 4 of the Philippine's 12 regions had a birth rate exceeding 40/1000; life expectancy at birth in these regions ranged from 57-64 years and population growth rates ranged from 2.6-4.2% annually. Also in 1970 40-49% of all 12 regional populations were young (under 15) and only 2-5% were old. In this transitional period there are a greater number of children in each household and thus heavier social and economic burdens occur; also the burden of youth dependency increases by more than 1/3. In the modern population structure, family burdens diminish as the average number of children surviving to age 20 becomes identical with the number of children born and great improvements in the quality of life are allowed. Population projections are based on the following assumptions: 1) decrease in mortality, either rapid or slow, 2) increase in age at marriage, 3) decline in fertility will remain at 0.7% annually, and 4) migration trends will stay the same as during the 1960-75 period. Total population is expected to reach 83.8 million by 2000, a 98% increase from 1975; a low estimate, assuming lower fertility and nuptiality, is 64.1 million, a 52% increase from 1975. The urban population will more than double its size by the year 2000 and rural population will grow from 22-65% with the fastest urbanizing regions being the Central and Southern Luzon. From 1975-2000 a 3-fold increase is expected in the number of families in Metro Manila. By 2000 a national labor force of 27.5 million is expected, more than double the 1970 level, with late entry into the labor force and declines in participation by elderly males. The various regions will see lower economic activity

  6. Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Geremia

    Full Text Available Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon.

  7. Improved analysis of long-term monitoring data demonstrates marked regional declines of bat populations in the eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas E. Ingersoll; Brent J. Sewall; Sybill K. Amelon

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by...

  8. Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of the Critically Endangered Yangtze Finless Porpoise (Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis as Revealed by Mitochondrial and Microsatellite DNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minmin Chen

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecological surveys have indicated that the population of the critically endangered Yangtze finless porpoise (YFP, Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis is becoming increasingly small and fragmented, and will be at high risk of extinction in the near future. Genetic conservation of this population will be an important component of the long-term conservation effort. We used a 597 base pair mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA control region and 11 microsatellite loci to analyze the genetic diversity and population structure of the YFP. The analysis of both mtDNA and microsatellite loci suggested that the genetic diversity of the YFP will possibly decrease in the future if the population keeps declining at a rapid rate, even though these two types of markers revealed different levels of genetic diversity. In addition, mtDNA revealed strong genetic differentiation between one local population, Xingchang–Shishou (XCSS, and the other five downstream local populations; furthermore, microsatellite DNA unveiled fine but significant genetic differentiation between three of the local populations (not only XCSS but also Poyang Lake (PY and Tongling (TL and the other local populations. With an increasing number of distribution gaps appearing in the Yangtze main steam, the genetic differentiation of local populations will likely intensify in the future. The YFP is becoming a genetically fragmented population. Therefore, we recommend attention should be paid to the genetic conservation of the YFP.

  9. Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of the Critically Endangered Yangtze Finless Porpoise (Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis) as Revealed by Mitochondrial and Microsatellite DNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Minmin; Zheng, Jinsong; Wu, Min; Ruan, Rui; Zhao, Qingzhong; Wang, Ding

    2014-01-01

    Ecological surveys have indicated that the population of the critically endangered Yangtze finless porpoise (YFP, Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis) is becoming increasingly small and fragmented, and will be at high risk of extinction in the near future. Genetic conservation of this population will be an important component of the long-term conservation effort. We used a 597 base pair mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and 11 microsatellite loci to analyze the genetic diversity and population structure of the YFP. The analysis of both mtDNA and microsatellite loci suggested that the genetic diversity of the YFP will possibly decrease in the future if the population keeps declining at a rapid rate, even though these two types of markers revealed different levels of genetic diversity. In addition, mtDNA revealed strong genetic differentiation between one local population, Xingchang–Shishou (XCSS), and the other five downstream local populations; furthermore, microsatellite DNA unveiled fine but significant genetic differentiation between three of the local populations (not only XCSS but also Poyang Lake (PY) and Tongling (TL)) and the other local populations. With an increasing number of distribution gaps appearing in the Yangtze main steam, the genetic differentiation of local populations will likely intensify in the future. The YFP is becoming a genetically fragmented population. Therefore, we recommend attention should be paid to the genetic conservation of the YFP. PMID:24968271

  10. Population mobility as a determinant of development and spatial distribution of population in Serbia in the last fifty years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spasovski Milena

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The transition of migratory phenomena in Serbia is characterized by the transition from the predominant local migration in the 1960s, dominance of regional resettlement and migration between cities since the 1980s to the forced migration of the 1990s. These trends were parallel with the intensification of international migrations. These, along with methodological differences in conducting the migrant population in population censuses, are important determinants of changes in the spatial distribution of population potentials in Serbia. This paper evaluated the migration component from 1961 to 2011. or in the last half century, through consideration of its impact on the transformation of rural and urban areas of Serbia. The transitional trends in the relations between natural increase and net migration formed the modern population decline on one and population concentration on other side and their individual segments. In doing so, emigration and immigration trends significantly determine the relocation of the urban population, immigrant population, the population with a higher educational level and population in the tertiary and quaternary sector activity at the beginning of the XXI century. Finally, the display density and concentration of migrant population in the contemporary period also indicates the importance of economic, social and other determinants of spatial development in the transition of migratory phenomena in Serbia.

  11. Locally optimal extracellular stimulation for chaotic desynchronization of neural populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Dan; Moehlis, Jeff

    2014-10-01

    We use optimal control theory to design a methodology to find locally optimal stimuli for desynchronization of a model of neurons with extracellular stimulation. This methodology yields stimuli which lead to positive Lyapunov exponents, and hence desynchronizes a neural population. We analyze this methodology in the presence of interneuron coupling to make predictions about the strength of stimulation required to overcome synchronizing effects of coupling. This methodology suggests a powerful alternative to pulsatile stimuli for deep brain stimulation as it uses less energy than pulsatile stimuli, and could eliminate the time consuming tuning process.

  12. Conservation genetics of managed ungulate populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scribner, Kim T.

    1993-01-01

    Natural populations of many species are increasingly impacted by human activities. Perturbations are particularly pronunced for large ungulates due in part to sport and commercial harvest, to reductions and fragmentation of native habitat, and as the result of reintroductions. These perturbations affect population size, sex and age composition, and population breeding structure, and as a consequence affect the levels and partitioning of genetic variation. Three case histories highlighting long-term ecological genetic research on mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817), white-tailed deer O. virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780), and Alpine ibex Capra i. ibex Linnaeus, 1758 are presented. Joint examinations of population ecological and genetic data from several populations of each species reveal: (1) that populations are not in genetic equilibrium, but that allele frequencies and heterozygosity change dramatically over time and among cohorts produced in successive years, (2) populations are genetically structured over short and large geographic distances reflecting local breeding structure and patterns of gene flow, respectively; however, this structure is quite dynamic over time, due in part to population exploitation, and (3) restocking programs are often undertaken with small numbers of founding individuals resulting in dramatic declines in levels of genetic variability and increasing levels of genetic differentiation among populations due to genetic drift. Genetic characteristics have and will continue to provide valuable indirect sources of information relating enviromental and human perturbations to changes in population processes.

  13. A draft de novo genome assembly for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus reveals evidence for a rapid decline in effective population size beginning in the Late Pleistocene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvette A Halley

    Full Text Available Wild populations of northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite have declined across nearly all of their U.S. range, and despite their importance as an experimental wildlife model for ecotoxicology studies, no bobwhite draft genome assembly currently exists. Herein, we present a bobwhite draft de novo genome assembly with annotation, comparative analyses including genome-wide analyses of divergence with the chicken (Gallus gallus and zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata genomes, and coalescent modeling to reconstruct the demographic history of the bobwhite for comparison to other birds currently in decline (i.e., scarlet macaw; Ara macao. More than 90% of the assembled bobwhite genome was captured within 14,000 unique genes and proteins. Bobwhite analyses of divergence with the chicken and zebra finch genomes revealed many extremely conserved gene sequences, and evidence for lineage-specific divergence of noncoding regions. Coalescent models for reconstructing the demographic history of the bobwhite and the scarlet macaw provided evidence for population bottlenecks which were temporally coincident with human colonization of the New World, the late Pleistocene collapse of the megafauna, and the last glacial maximum. Demographic trends predicted for the bobwhite and the scarlet macaw also were concordant with how opposing natural selection strategies (i.e., skewness in the r-/K-selection continuum would be expected to shape genome diversity and the effective population sizes in these species, which is directly relevant to future conservation efforts.

  14. Correlates of virulence in a frog-killing fungal pathogen: evidence from a California amphibian decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piovia-Scott, Jonah; Pope, Karen; Worth, S Joy; Rosenblum, Erica Bree; Poorten, Thomas; Refsnider, Jeanine; Rollins-Smith, Louise A; Reinert, Laura K; Wells, Heather L; Rejmanek, Dan; Lawler, Sharon; Foley, Janet

    2015-07-01

    The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused declines and extinctions in amphibians worldwide, and there is increasing evidence that some strains of this pathogen are more virulent than others. While a number of putative virulence factors have been identified, few studies link these factors to specific epizootic events. We documented a dramatic decline in juvenile frogs in a Bd-infected population of Cascades frogs (Rana cascadae) in the mountains of northern California and used a laboratory experiment to show that Bd isolated in the midst of this decline induced higher mortality than Bd isolated from a more stable population of the same species of frog. This highly virulent Bd isolate was more toxic to immune cells and attained higher density in liquid culture than comparable isolates. Genomic analyses revealed that this isolate is nested within the global panzootic lineage and exhibited unusual genomic patterns, including increased copy numbers of many chromosomal segments. This study integrates data from multiple sources to suggest specific phenotypic and genomic characteristics of the pathogen that may be linked to disease-related declines.

  15. Estimating trends of population decline in long-lived marine species in the Mediterranean Sea based on fishers' perceptions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesc Maynou

    Full Text Available We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery. The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase. This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales were at very low levels in the second half of the 20(th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species.

  16. Physiology declines prior to death in Drosophila melanogaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahrestani, Parvin; Tran, Xuan; Mueller, Laurence D

    2012-10-01

    For a period of 6-15 days prior to death, the fecundity and virility of Drosophila melanogaster fall significantly below those of same-aged flies that are not near death. It is likely that other aspects of physiology may decline during this period. This study attempts to document changes in two physiological characteristics prior to death: desiccation resistance and time-in-motion. Using individual fecundity estimates and previously described models, it is possible to accurately predict which flies in a population are near death at any given age; these flies are said to be in the "death spiral". In this study of approximately 7,600 females, we used cohort mortality data and individual fecundity estimates to dichotomize each of five replicate populations of same-aged D. melanogaster into "death spiral" and "non-spiral" groups. We then compared these groups for two physiological characteristics that decline during aging. We describe the statistical properties of a new multivariate test statistic that allows us to compare the desiccation resistance and time-in-motion for two populations chosen on the basis of their fecundity. This multivariate representation of the desiccation resistance and time-in-motion of spiral and non-spiral females was shown to be significantly different with the spiral females characterized by lower desiccation resistance and time spent in motion. Our results suggest that D. melanogaster may be used as a model organism to study physiological changes that occur when death is imminent.

  17. Rising trade, declining stocks: The global gugul (Commiphora wightii) trade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, A B; Brinckmann, J A; Kulloli, R N; Schippmann, U

    2018-05-07

    Commiphora wightii is exploited in India and Pakistan for an oleo-resin (gum guggul) traditionally used in Ayurvedic, Siddha and Unani medical systems. Processed C. wightii oleo-resin products are exported from India to 42 countries, including re-export to Pakistan, for anti-inflammatory use and as an anti-inflammatory and an anti-obesity treatment considered to lower cholesterol and lipid levels. The C. wightii export trade has particular relevance to the European Union because Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and United Kingdom are importing countries. Demand and prices for C. wightii oleo-resin are increasing and wild stocks of C. wightii are in decline. The overexploitation of C. wightii after tapping for its commercially valuable oleo-resin is not a new problem, however, but one that has existed for over 50 years. Lopping and chopping trees to extract C. wightii oleo-resin has had a devastating impact on C. wightii populations since the 1960's. The aim of this study was to review the sustainability of the global trade in C. wightii oleo-resin. This included reviewing studies on resin tapping methods and the impacts of wild harvest on C. wightii populations in India and Pakistan. Firstly, we reviewed studies on impacts of C. wightii oleo-resin harvest and on the policy responses taken in relation to harvest and trade in C. wightii oleo-resin. Secondly, we reviewed studies on C. wightii cultivation. Thirdly, global trade data for C. wightii were analyzed. Destructive harvest to obtain the gum is the major threat facing this species. C. wightii populations are also fragmented by habitat loss through clearing for farming. Cutting and lopping in order to extract the medicinal gum are a major threat to C. wightii populations, as is poor recruitment due to grazing by livestock. As a result of over-exploitation, C. wightii oleo-resin production has declined in India. In Gujarat, a key production area, the decline over a 50-year period has

  18. CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S. [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of); Woods, T. N. [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States); Hong, Sunhak, E-mail: gchoe@khu.ac.kr [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-10

    It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

  19. CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.; Hong, Sunhak

    2016-01-01

    It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

  20. Differentiated decline in Danish outskirt areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Lea Louise Holst; Andersson, Lasse

    2011-01-01

    The latest figures show that minor Danish villages and rural areas through the last 20 years have suffered from depopulation and economical decline, and it is a development that seems to accelerate. The negative consequences of this development are low house prizes, a higher unemployment rate than...... in Danish rural areas can be reverted and a general growth can be created. But it will argue that on a local level using a landscape orientated and cultural planning approach new cohesion on a spatial, architectonic as well as economic and cultural level can be created. Throughout the studies of the Village...

  1. Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

    2016-01-01

    The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

  2. No evident spatial genetic structuring in the rapidly declining Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trimbos, K.B.; Kentie, R.; Verkuil, Y.; Musters, C.J.M.; Piersma, Th.; Snoo, de G.R.

    2011-01-01

    With 40% of the European Black-tailed Godwit population breeding in The Netherlands, this country harbours internationally significant numbers of this species. However, ongoing agricultural intensification has resulted in the fragmentation of the population and drastic population declines since

  3. Decline and recovery of a large carnivore: environmental change and long-term trends in an endangered brown bear population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez Cano, Isabel; Taboada, Fernando González; Naves, Javier; Fernández-Gil, Alberto; Wiegand, Thorsten

    2016-11-30

    Understanding what factors drive fluctuations in the abundance of endangered species is a difficult ecological problem but a major requirement to attain effective management and conservation success. The ecological traits of large mammals make this task even more complicated, calling for integrative approaches. We develop a framework combining individual-based modelling and statistical inference to assess alternative hypotheses on brown bear dynamics in the Cantabrian range (Iberian Peninsula). Models including the effect of environmental factors on mortality rates were able to reproduce three decades of variation in the number of females with cubs of the year (Fcoy), including the decline that put the population close to extinction in the mid-nineties, and the following increase in brown bear numbers. This external effect prevailed over density-dependent mechanisms (sexually selected infanticide and female reproductive suppression), with a major impact of climate driven changes in resource availability and a secondary role of changes in human pressure. Predicted changes in population structure revealed a nonlinear relationship between total abundance and the number of Fcoy, highlighting the risk of simple projections based on indirect abundance indices. This study demonstrates the advantages of integrative, mechanistic approaches and provides a widely applicable framework to improve our understanding of wildlife dynamics. © 2016 The Author(s).

  4. Local self-organization of population and its role in the development of the civil society in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Berezinskiy

    2017-07-01

    It has been shown that in general the bodies of self-organization of population are focused on the protection of social, eco-nomic and cultural issues, such as the organization and activities of local self-performed in compliance with law; transparency; voluntarily taking on certain powers of the respective local council; territoriality; election; accountability and responsibility to the respective councils; accountability and responsibility to the residents who have chosen community organizations; financial and institutional independence. It has been proven that the local self-organization of population in Ukraine plays an important role in the development of civil society, reflects the level of democratization at the local level and in the whole state. The experience of democratization of Ukrainian society confirms that democracy originates «from below», that is, with the personal participation of citizens in solving specific life issues that directly affect the conditions of their lives.

  5. Age-related decline in global form suppression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiegand, Iris Michaela; Finke, Kathrin; Töllner, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    . Selective attention, i.e., the ability to focus on relevant and ignore irrelevant information, declines with increasing age; however, how this deficit affects selection of global vs. local configurations remains unknown. On this background, the present study examined for age-related differences in a global...... differences in the subsequent (250–500 ms) posterior contralateral negativity (PCN) indicated that attentional resources were allocated faster to Kanisza, as compared to non-Kanisza, targets in both age groups, while the allocation of spatial attention seemed to be generally delayed in older relative...... to younger age. Our results suggest that the enhanced global-local asymmetry in the older age group originated from less effective suppression of global distracter forms on early processing stages – indicative of older observers having difficulties with disengaging from a global default selection mode...

  6. Brain Amyloid Deposition and Longitudinal Cognitive Decline in Nondemented Older Subjects: Results from a Multi-Ethnic Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yian Gu

    Full Text Available We aimed to whether the abnormally high amyloid-β (Aβ level in the brain among apparently healthy elders is related with subtle cognitive deficits and/or accelerated cognitive decline.A total of 116 dementia-free participants (mean age 84.5 years of the Washington Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project completed 18F-Florbetaben PET imaging. Positive or negative cerebral Aβ deposition was assessed visually. Quantitative cerebral Aβ burden was calculated as the standardized uptake value ratio in pre-established regions of interest using cerebellar cortex as the reference region. Cognition was determined using a neuropsychological battery and selected tests scores were combined into four composite scores (memory, language, executive/speed, and visuospatial using exploratory factor analysis. We examined the relationship between cerebral Aβ level and longitudinal cognition change up to 20 years before the PET scan using latent growth curve models, controlling for age, education, ethnicity, and Apolipoprotein E (APOE genotype.Positive reading of Aβ was found in 41 of 116 (35% individuals. Cognitive scores at scan time was not related with Aβ. All cognitive scores declined over time. Aβ positive reading (B = -0.034, p = 0.02 and higher Aβ burden in temporal region (B = -0.080, p = 0.02 were associated with faster decline in executive/speed. Stratified analyses showed that higher Aβ deposition was associated with faster longitudinal declines in mean cognition, language, and executive/speed in African-Americans or in APOE ε4 carriers, and with faster memory decline in APOE ε4 carriers. The associations remained significant after excluding mild cognitive impairment participants.High Aβ deposition in healthy elders was associated with decline in executive/speed in the decade before neuroimaging, and the association was observed primarily in African-Americans and APOE ε4 carriers. Our results suggest that measuring cerebral Aβ may give us

  7. Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, Joseph O.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Said, Mohamed Y.; Ojwang, Gordon O.; Njino, Lucy W.; Kifugo, Shem C.; Wargute, Patrick W.

    2016-01-01

    There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya’s land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72–88%) and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson’s gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy’s zebra and waterbuck in Kenya’s rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2%) but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%), camels (13.1%) and donkeys (6.7%) evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011–2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977–1980. Most of Kenya’s wildlife (ca. 30%) occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total “national” wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate

  8. India's population: second and growing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visaria, P; Visaria, L

    1981-10-01

    Attention in this discussion of the population of India is directed to the following: international comparisons, population pressures, trends in population growth (interstate variations), sex ratio and literacy, urban-rural distribution, migration (interstate migration, international migration), fertility and mortality levels, fertility trends (birth rate decline, interstate fertility differentials, rural-urban fertility decline, fertility differentials by education and religion, marriage and fertility), mortality trends (mortality differentials, health care services), population pressures on socioeconomic development (per capita income and poverty, unemployment and employment, increasing foodgrain production, school enrollment shortfalls), the family planning program, implementing population policy statements, what actions would be effective, and goals and prospects for the future. India's population, a total of 684 million persons as of March 1, 1981, is 2nd only to the population of China. The 1981 population was up by 136 million persons, or 24.75%, over the 548 million enumerated in the 1971 census. For 1978, India's birth and death rates were estimated at 33.3 and 14.2/1000 population, down from about 41.1 and 18.9 during the mid-1960s. India's current 5-year plan has set a goal of a birth rate of 30/1000 population by 1985 and "replacement-level" fertility--about 2.3 births per woman--by 1996. The acceleration in India's population growth has come mainly in the past 3 decades and is due primarily to a decline in mortality that has markedly outstripped the fertility decline. The Janata Party which assumed government leadership in March 1977 did not dismantle the family planning program, but emphasis was shifted to promote family planning "without any compulsion, coercion or pressures of any sort." The policy statement stressed that efforts were to be directed towards those currently underserved, mainly in rural areas. Hard targets were rejected. Over the 1978

  9. Analysis of three amphibian populations with quarter-century long time-series.

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, A H; Schimidt, B R; Grossenbacher, K

    1998-01-01

    Amphibians are in decline in many parts of the world. Long tme-series of amphibian populations are necessary to distinguish declines from the often strong fluctuations observed in natural populations. Time-series may also help to understand the causes of these declines. We analysed 23-28-year long time-series of the frog Rana temporaria. Only one of the three studied populations showed a negative trend which was probably caused by the introduction of fish. Two populations appeared to be densi...

  10. Population Change in a Marine Bird Colony is Driven By Changes in Recruitment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony J. Gaston

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The population dynamics of long-lived birds are thought to be very sensitive to changes in adult survival. However, where natal philopatry is low, recruitment from the larger metapopulation may have the strongest effect on population growth rate even in long-lived species. Here, we illustrate such a situation where changes in a seabird colony size appeared to be the consequence of changes in recruitment. We studied the population dynamics of a declining colony of Ancient Murrelets (Synthliboramphus antiquus at East Limestone Island, British Columbia. During 1990-2010, Ancient Murrelet chicks were trapped at East Limestone Island while departing to sea, using a standard trapping method carried on throughout the departure period. Adult murrelets were trapped while departing from the colony during 1990-2003. Numbers of chicks trapped declined during 1990-1995, probably because of raccoon predation, increased slightly from 1995-2000 and subsequently declined again. Reproductive success was 30% lower during 2000-2003 than in earlier years, mainly because of an increase in desertions. The proportion of nonbreeders among adult birds trapped at night also declined over the study period. Mortality of adult birds, thought to be mainly prebreeders, from predators more than doubled over the same period. Apparent adult survival of breeders remained constant during 1991-2002 once the first year after banding was excluded, but the apparent survival rates in the first year after banding fell and the survival of birds banded as chicks to age three halved over the same period. A matrix model of population dynamics suggested that even during the early part of the study immigration from other breeding areas must have been substantial, supporting earlier observations that natal philopatry in this species is low. The general colony decline after 2000 probably was related to diminished recruitment, as evidenced by the lower proportion of nonbreeders in the trapped

  11. Diet and cognitive decline at middle age : The role of antioxidants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooyens, Astrid C J; Milder, Ivon E J; Van Gelder, Boukje M.; Bueno-De-Mesquita, H. Bas; Van Boxtel, Martin P J; Verschuren, W. M Monique

    2015-01-01

    To assess the relationship between dietary intake of antioxidants (vitamin C, vitamin E, β-carotene, lutein, flavonoids and lignans) and cognitive decline at middle age, analyses were performed on data from the population based Doetinchem Cohort Study. Habitual diet and cognitive function were

  12. Quality of life declines in big and growing cities. Poverty in cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harel, K

    1997-01-01

    The quality of life in developing countries during the first couple of decades after the Second World War was higher in cities than in small towns and villages. However, the relative advantage of city dwellers in developing countries has declined since the 1970s, with high-growth rate cities experiencing a more severe decline. Infant mortality levels in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s are as high in large cities as in the smallest towns and villages. In most developing regions, big city residents are increasingly disadvantaged, such that researchers and policymakers can no longer assume that the quality of life in urban areas is better than in rural areas. The urban transformation of the developing world is similar to the 19th century urbanization of now-developed countries, but today many more people are crowding into far bigger cities. Using survey information from 43 countries representing 63% of the developing world's urban population outside of China and India, Martin Brockerhoff of the Population Council and Ellen Brennan of the UN Population Division found that rapid population growth and big size have overwhelmed the capacity of cities to provide essential goods and services.

  13. Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linhart, Christine; Tukana, Isimeli; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

    2017-11-01

    To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25-64 years. Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial declines over several decades in a cardiovascular disease risk factor in a Pacific Island country, and provides important evidence for further research into the interventions and events which may have facilitated this decline. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.

  14. Demography and conservation of an isolated Spur-thighed tortoise Testudo graeca population in Dobrogea (Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Buică

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Spur-thighed tortoise is a vulnerable species. The local declines of populations led to an imperative need for conservation. Testudo graeca reaches its northern range limit in Dobrogea region, Romania. We studied a population from this region, which occupies an enclosed area of 32 ha within Histria Archaeological Complex. Based on a capture-mark-recapture study we estimated the population size of 221 ± 12.2 individuals. The observed density was 5.1 individuals/ha. The predicted population size suggests a relatively high density in relation to the area thus raising attention for a future conservation strategy. The population structure shows reduced sexual dimorphism and an unbiased sex ratio, implying a young population structure. We suggest correlating the future archaeological studies with conservation requirements of tortoises.

  15. Rapid population growth and fragile environments: the sub-Saharan African and south Asian experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, J C; Caldwell, P

    1994-02-18

    Case studies of the world's two poorest regions, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, were used to illustrate the compromised standard of living of the poor and environmental damage due to continued rapid population growth. The conclusion was that the livelihoods of the poor should not be endangered for preserving the living standards of richer people. Nations must not ignore the challenges of reducing population growth as fast as can be achieved. The transitional period over the next 50 years is the main concern, because population growth rates will be slowing. Rural population growth is expected to decline from 60% of total population growth in South Asia to 7% between 2000 and 2025; similarly the decline in sub-Saharan Africa would be from 50% to 15%. Over the past 30 years, food production in South Asia has kept pace with population growth. Sub-Saharan Africa has adopted food importation to meet demand. African problems are a low resource base, faster population growth, and the fact that governments and individuals are too poor to maintain soil fertility. Long-term studies of how much soil depletion will occur are not available for these regions, and local area studies are not as pessimistic. Transition policies are needed to put "people first in terms of engineered or directed population and ecological change." The six main issues are the following: 1) the Brundtland Commission appropriately identified poverty as the main cause and effect of environmental degradation because of the threat to survival; 2) the verdict is still out about whether food production will keep pace with population growth through economic growth and investment in agriculture; 3) empirical research is needed to examine local social and regulatory institutions and the possibility of reinforcing these mechanisms rather than instituting central controls; 4) central coercion or modernizing economic policies can destroy local level controls; 5) famine is a complex ecological phenomenon and the

  16. Local and landscape drivers of predation services in urban gardens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philpott, Stacy M; Bichier, Peter

    2017-04-01

    In agroecosystems, local and landscape features, as well as natural enemy abundance and richness, are significant predictors of predation services that may result in biological control of pests. Despite the increasing importance of urban gardening for provisioning of food to urban populations, most urban gardeners suffer from high pest problems, and have little knowledge about how to manage their plots to increase biological control services. We examined the influence of local, garden scale (i.e., herbaceous and arboreal vegetation abundance and diversity, ground cover) and landscape (i.e., landscape diversity and surrounding land use types) characteristics on predation services provided by naturally occurring predators in 19 urban gardens in the California central coast. We introduced sentinel pests (moth eggs and larvae and pea aphids) onto greenhouse-raised plants taken to gardens and assigned to open or bagged (predator exclosure) treatments. We found high predation rates with between 40% and 90% of prey items removed in open treatments. Predation services varied with local and landscape factors, but significant predictors differed by prey species. Predation of eggs and aphids increased with vegetation complexity in gardens, but larvae predation declined with vegetation complexity. Smaller gardens experienced higher predation services, likely due to increases in predator abundance in smaller gardens. Several ground cover features influenced predation services. In contrast to patterns in rural agricultural landscapes, predation on aphids declined with increases in landscape diversity. In sum, we report the relationships between several local management factors, as well as landscape surroundings, and implications for garden management. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  17. Changes in Land Surface Water Dynamics since the 1990s and Relation to Population Pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Jimenez, C.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

    2012-01-01

    We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

  18. Daily intake of manganese by local population around Kylleng Pyndengsohiong Mawthabah (Domiasiat), Meghalaya in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gothankar, S.S. [Environmental Assessment Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Jha, S.K. [Environmental Assessment Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)], E-mail: skjha@barc.gov.in; Lenka, P.; Tripathi, R.M.; Puranik, V.D. [Environmental Assessment Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

    2009-04-01

    Present work is carried out adjacent to world's highest rainfall area Kylleng Pyndengsohiong (KP) Mawthabah (Domiasiat), Meghalaya in India to establish the baseline value of manganese intake through dietary route by the local tribe population in view of proposed uranium mining. The locally available food items collected from villages surrounding the proposed uranium mining site at KP Mawthabah (Domiasiat) were analysed using Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence (EDXRF) Technique. The manganese concentration in different food categories varies from 2.76-12.50 mg kg{sup -1} in cereals, 1.8-4.20 mg kg{sup -1} in leafy vegetables, 0.30-13.50 mg kg{sup -1} in non leafy vegetables, 0.50-15.30 mg kg{sup -1} in roots and tubers, 0.70-1.50 mg kg{sup -1} in fruits and 0.12-0.96 mg kg{sup -1} in flesh food. The mean dietary intake of Mn was found to be 3.83 {+-} 0.25 mg d{sup -1} compared to Recommended Dietary Allowances (RDAs) of 2-5 mg d{sup -1}. The daily intake of Manganese by the local tribe population is comparable with the value (3.7 mg d{sup -1}) recommended by International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) for reference man and lower than the intake value observed for Indian and other Asian population.

  19. Are ethnic restaurants a solution to dine out for the young local population?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BALTESCU Codruta Adina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ethnic restaurants are a component of a tourist destination offer. Through their profile, the menus, ambiance and environment, ethnic restaurants are targeting mainly the visitors. This article analyses to what extent these restaurants can attract local population, and especially, young population. In this respect it was conducted a quantitative marketing research among students of the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Business Administration from Brasov. The conclusions obtained highlight which are the attraction elements and features which determine young people to eat in an ethnic restaurant, in their place of residence or at a holiday destination.

  20. The effect of new business creation on employment growth in regions facing population decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delfmann, Heike; Koster, Sierdjan

    Particularly in declining regions, new businesses creation is seen as a means to secure (future) employment opportunities. However, the way in which new business creation exerts its influence on employment is not evident. Do start-ups in these areas influencing employment change as they do in growth

  1. Extinction debt as a driver of amphibian declines: An example with imperiled flatwoods salamanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semiltsch, Raymond D; Walls, Susan; Barichivich, William J.; O'Donnell, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive view of population declines and their underlying causes is necessary to reverse species loss. Historically, in many cases, a narrow view may have allowed species declines to continue, virtually undetected, for long periods of time (perhaps even decades). We suggest that extinction debt is likely responsible for numerous (perhaps most) amphibian declines and that this perspective should be incorporated into the structure of amphibian research and management. Extinction debt, originally proposed to explain changes in species richness following environmental disturbance, also may refer to the proportion of populations of an individual species that is expected to eventually be lost because of habitat change. A conservation framework to address extinction debt focuses research on threats at the individual, population, and metapopulation levels. This approach will help enhance, restore, and protect specific processes and habitats at the proper scale by directing management to the most vulnerable level and stage of a species. We illustrate this approach using Flatwoods Salamanders, Ambystoma cingulatumand Ambystoma bishopi, which occurred historically throughout the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States but have experienced a greater than 85% loss of populations in recent years. Reversal of these losses is possible only if conservation and recovery efforts encompass individual, population, and metapopulation levels. We illustrate our framework by outlining actions that could be taken at each of these levels to help guide conservation and management of amphibians with complex life cycles and provide options for how to prioritize conservation actions in the face of logistical and budgetary shortfalls.

  2. Regional decline of an iconic amphibian associated with elevation, land-use change, and invasive species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Pieter T J; McKenzie, Valerie J; Peterson, Anna C; Kerby, Jacob L; Brown, Jennifer; Blaustein, Andrew R; Jackson, Tina

    2011-06-01

    Ecological theory predicts that species with restricted geographic ranges will have the highest probability of extinction, but species with extensive distributions and high population densities can also exhibit widespread population losses. In the western United States populations of northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens)-historically one of the most widespread frogs in North America-have declined dramatically in abundance and geographic distribution. To assess the status of leopard frogs in Colorado and evaluate causes of decline, we coupled statewide surveys of 196 historically occupied sites with intensive sampling of 274 wetlands stratified by land use. We used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate the contributions of factors at multiple spatial extents in explaining the contemporary distribution of leopard frogs. Our results indicate leopard frogs have declined in Colorado, but this decline was regionally variable. The lowest proportion of occupied wetlands occurred in eastern Colorado (2-28%), coincident with urban development and colonization by non-native bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus). Variables at several spatial extents explained observed leopard frog distributional patterns. In low-elevation wetlands introduced fishes, bullfrogs, and urbanization or suburbanization associated negatively with leopard frog occurrence, whereas wetland area was positively associated with occurrence. Leopard frogs were more abundant and widespread west of the Continental Divide, where urban development and bullfrog abundance were low. Although the pathogenic chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was not selected in our best-supported models, the nearly complete extirpation of leopard frogs from montane wetlands could reflect the individual or interactive effects of Bd and climate patterns. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple, competing hypotheses to explain species declines, particularly when implicated factors operate at

  3. Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brooke E Penaluna

    Full Text Available Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011, and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year, but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

  4. A strategy for monitoring and managing declines in an amphibian community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H Campbell; Zipkin, Elise F; Nichols, James D; Campbell, J Patrick

    2013-12-01

    Although many taxa have declined globally, conservation actions are inherently local. Ecosystems degrade even in protected areas, and maintaining natural systems in a desired condition may require active management. Implementing management decisions under uncertainty requires a logical and transparent process to identify objectives, develop management actions, formulate system models to link actions with objectives, monitor to reduce uncertainty and identify system state (i.e., resource condition), and determine an optimal management strategy. We applied one such structured decision-making approach that incorporates these critical elements to inform management of amphibian populations in a protected area managed by the U.S. National Park Service. Climate change is expected to affect amphibian occupancy of wetlands and to increase uncertainty in management decision making. We used the tools of structured decision making to identify short-term management solutions that incorporate our current understanding of the effect of climate change on amphibians, emphasizing how management can be undertaken even with incomplete information. Estrategia para Monitorear y Manejar Disminuciones en una Comunidad de Anfibios. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

    2016-01-01

    While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

  6. [Fertility change in Mexico and the politics of population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavala De Cosio, M E

    1993-01-01

    This introduction to a detailed study of fertility change in Mexico assesses the available fertility data and describes the sources used, traces the beginning and course of the demographic transition in Mexico, and describes the work. Mexico's demographic transition began around 1930 with the acceleration of mortality decline. The considerable time lag between the mortality decline and the beginning of the fertility decline resulted in a period of very rapid growth. Between 1955 and 1975, the growth rate exceeded 3% annually. The start of the fertility decline dated to about 1970, the time of a major reform of population policy and creation of institutions to reduce growth. But the fertility decline was not solely the result of population programs. An incipient fertility decline could be observed in the metropolitan and more educated population sectors beginning in the early 1960s. The onset of the mortality decline in the 1930s resulted from the sustained social and economic progress made possible after the conclusion of the Mexican Revolution. Between 1930 and 1980, the adult illiteracy rate declined from 61.2% to 17%, while life expectancy increased from 33 years to 63.2 years. In Mexico as in other Latin American countries, the mortality decline, which disturbed the traditional balance between high mortality and high fertility, was the force setting off the demographic transition and the necessary precursor to fertility decline. The first of two main sections of the book focuses on examination of fertility variations in Mexico since around 1900 using cross-sectional and longitudinal methods of analysis. The second part describes the origins, history, and institutions involved in Mexico's population policies and the demographic programs and their principal results. The influence of population policies in demographic change is assessed, especially in the case of fertility changes induced by family planning programs. Both the first and second parts sought to place

  7. Life expectancy estimation in small administrative areas with non-uniform population sizes: application to Australian New South Wales local government areas

    OpenAIRE

    Stephens, Alexandre S; Purdie, Stuart; Yang, Baohui; Moore, Helen

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine a practical approach for deriving life expectancy estimates in Australian New South Wales local government areas which display a large diversity in population sizes. Design Population-based study utilising mortality and estimated residential population data. Setting 153 local government areas in New South Wales, Australia. Outcome measures Key performance measures of Chiang II, Silcocks, adjusted Chiang II and Bayesian random effects model methodologies of life expectan...

  8. Effects of trophy hunting on lion and leopard populations in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Packer, C; Brink, H; Kissui, B M; Maliti, H; Kushnir, H; Caro, T

    2011-02-01

    Tanzania holds most of the remaining large populations of African lions (Panthera leo) and has extensive areas of leopard habitat (Panthera pardus), and both species are subjected to sizable harvests by sport hunters. As a first step toward establishing sustainable management strategies, we analyzed harvest trends for lions and leopards across Tanzania's 300,000 km(2) of hunting blocks. We summarize lion population trends in protected areas where lion abundance has been directly measured and data on the frequency of lion attacks on humans in high-conflict agricultural areas. We place these findings in context of the rapidly growing human population in rural Tanzania and the concomitant effects of habitat loss, human-wildlife conflict, and cultural practices. Lion harvests declined by 50% across Tanzania between 1996 and 2008, and hunting areas with the highest initial harvests suffered the steepest declines. Although each part of the country is subject to some form of anthropogenic impact from local people, the intensity of trophy hunting was the only significant factor in a statistical analysis of lion harvest trends. Although leopard harvests were more stable, regions outside the Selous Game Reserve with the highest initial leopard harvests again showed the steepest declines. Our quantitative analyses suggest that annual hunting quotas be limited to 0.5 lions and 1.0 leopard/1000 km(2) of hunting area, except hunting blocks in the Selous Game Reserve, where harvests should be limited to 1.0 lion and 3.0 leopards/1000 km(2) . ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

  9. Evidence of disease-related amphibian decline in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muths, Erin; Corn, Paul Stephen; Pessier, Allan P.; Green, D. Earl

    2003-01-01

    The recent discovery of a pathogenic fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) associated with declines of frogs in the American and Australian tropics, suggests that at least the proximate cause, may be known for many previously unexplained amphibian declines. We have monitored boreal toads in Colorado since 1991 at four sites using capturea??recapture of adults and counts of egg masses to examine the dynamics of this metapopulation. Numbers of male toads declined in 1996 and 1999 with annual survival rate averaging 78% from 1991 to 1994, 45% in 1995 and 3% between 1998 and 1999. Numbers of egg masses also declined. An etiological diagnosis of chytridiomycosis consistent with infections by the genus Batrachochytrium was made in six wild adult toads. Characteristic histomorphological features (i.e. intracellular location, shape of thalli, presence of discharge tubes and rhizoids) of chytrid organisms, and host tissue response (acanthosis and hyperkeratosis) were observed in individual toads. These characteristics were indistinguishable from previously reported mortality events associated with chytrid fungus. We also observed epizootiological features consistent with mortality events associated with chytrid fungus: an increase in the ratio of female:male toads captured, an apparent spread of mortalities within the metapopulation and mortalities restricted to post metamorphic animals. Eleven years of population data suggest that this metapopulation of toads is in danger of extinction, pathological and epizootiological evidence indicates that B. dendrobatidis has played a proximate role in this process

  10. Social stress and population cycles: an assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novak, M.A.

    1978-01-01

    Social stress is a population hypothesis that is invoked to explain the precipitous declines observed in population levels of such rodent species as Microtus pennsylvanicus. According to this hypothesis, stress is produced by the increase in aggressive contacts between animals in a growing population. Continued contacts produce profound hormonal and behavioral changes in these animals which lead to decreases in reproduction and viability. Several theoretical weaknesses of the hypothesis are raised. First, increases in density may not be positively correlated with the number of contacts. Animals may merely build more runways. Second, even if contacts do increase, they may not necessarily be aggressive in nature. Finally, confined populations which reach excessively high densities and for which contacts between animals must increase, fail to show a precipitous decline in numbers. In addition, a major methodological problem is revealed. Although researchers tend to causally connect social stress and precipitous population declines, most studies are correlational in nature. Of those studies that involve actual manipulations of populations, these manipulations are usually performed on confined populations that fail to exhibit the desired phenomonen. The difficulties associated with manipulating unconfined populations are discussed

  11. No evidence for local adaptation to salt stress in the existing populations of invasive Solidago canadensis in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Junmin; Liu, Haiyan; Yan, Ming; Du, Leshan

    2017-01-01

    Local adaptation is an important mechanism underlying the adaptation of plants to environmental heterogeneity, and the toxicity of salt results in strong selection pressure on salt tolerance in plants and different ecotypes. Solidago canadensis, which is invasive in China, has spread widely and has recently colonized alkali sandy loams with a significant salt content. A common greenhouse experiment was conducted to test the role of local adaptation in the successful invasion of S. canadensis into salty habitats. Salt treatment significantly decreased the growth of S. canadensis, including rates of increase in the number of leaves and plant height; the root, shoot, and total biomass. Furthermore, salt stress significantly reduced the net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate and relative chlorophyll content but significantly increased peroxidase activity and the proline content of S. canadensis and the root/shoot ratio. Two-way analysis of variance showed that salt treatment had a significant effect on the physiological traits of S. canadensis, except for the intercellular CO2 concentration, whereas the population and the salt × population interaction had no significant effect on any physiological traits. Most of the variation in plasticity existed within and not among populations, excep for the root/shoot ratio. S. canadensis populations from soil with moderate/high salt levels grew similarly to S. canadensis populations from soils with low salt levels. No significant correlation between salt tolerance indices and soil salinity levels was observed. The plasticity of the proline content, intercellular CO2 concentration and chlorophyll content had significant correlations with the salt tolerance index. These findings indicate a lack of evidence for local adaption in the existing populations of invasive S. canadensis in China; instead, plasticity might be more important than local adaptation in influencing the physiological traits and salt

  12. No evidence for local adaptation to salt stress in the existing populations of invasive Solidago canadensis in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junmin Li

    Full Text Available Local adaptation is an important mechanism underlying the adaptation of plants to environmental heterogeneity, and the toxicity of salt results in strong selection pressure on salt tolerance in plants and different ecotypes. Solidago canadensis, which is invasive in China, has spread widely and has recently colonized alkali sandy loams with a significant salt content. A common greenhouse experiment was conducted to test the role of local adaptation in the successful invasion of S. canadensis into salty habitats. Salt treatment significantly decreased the growth of S. canadensis, including rates of increase in the number of leaves and plant height; the root, shoot, and total biomass. Furthermore, salt stress significantly reduced the net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate and relative chlorophyll content but significantly increased peroxidase activity and the proline content of S. canadensis and the root/shoot ratio. Two-way analysis of variance showed that salt treatment had a significant effect on the physiological traits of S. canadensis, except for the intercellular CO2 concentration, whereas the population and the salt × population interaction had no significant effect on any physiological traits. Most of the variation in plasticity existed within and not among populations, excep for the root/shoot ratio. S. canadensis populations from soil with moderate/high salt levels grew similarly to S. canadensis populations from soils with low salt levels. No significant correlation between salt tolerance indices and soil salinity levels was observed. The plasticity of the proline content, intercellular CO2 concentration and chlorophyll content had significant correlations with the salt tolerance index. These findings indicate a lack of evidence for local adaption in the existing populations of invasive S. canadensis in China; instead, plasticity might be more important than local adaptation in influencing the physiological

  13. Decline in Kelp in West Europe and Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginie Raybaud

    Full Text Available Kelp ecosystems form widespread underwater forests playing a major role in structuring the biodiversity at a regional scale. Some seaweeds such as Laminaria digitata are also economically important, being exploited for their alginate and iodine content. Although some studies have shown that kelp ecosystems are regressing and that multiple causes are likely to be at the origin of the disappearance of certain populations, the extent to which global climate change may play a role remains speculative. Here we show that many populations of L. digitata along European coasts are on the verge of local extinction due to a climate-caused increase in sea temperature. By modeling the spatial distribution of the seaweed, we evaluate the possible implications of global climate change for the geographical patterns of the species using temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5. Projections of the future range of L. digitata throughout the 21st century show large shifts in the suitable habitat of the kelp and a northward retreat of the southern limit of its current geographic distribution from France to Danish coasts and the southern regions of the United Kingdom. However, these projections depend on the intensity of warming. A medium to high warming is expected to lead to the extirpation of the species as early as the first half of the 21st century and there is high confidence that regional extinction will spread northwards by the end of this century. These changes are likely to cause the decline of species whose life cycle is closely dependent upon L. digitata and lead to the establishment of new ecosystems with lower ecological and economic values.

  14. Local population impacts of geothermal energy development in the Geysers: Calistoga region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haven, K.F.; Berg, V.; Ladson, Y.W.

    1980-09-01

    The country-level population increase implications of two long-term geothermal development scenarios for the Geysers region in California are addressed. This region is defined to include the counties of Lake, Sonoma, Mendocino and Napa, all four in northern California. The development scenarios include two components: development for electrical energy production and direct use applications. Electrical production scenarios are derived by incorporating current development patterns into previous development scenarios by both industry and research organizations. The scenarios are made county-specific, specific to the type of geothermal system constructed, and are projected through the year 2000. Separate high growth rate and low growth rate scenarios are developed, based on a set of specified assumptions. Direct use scenarios are estimated from the nature of the available resource, existing local economic and demographic patterns, and available experience with various separate direct use options. From the composite development scenarios, required numbers of direct and indirect employees and the resultant in-migration patterns are estimated. In-migration patterns are compared to current county level population and ongoing trends in the county population change for each of the four counties. From this comparison, conclusions are drawn concerning the contributions of geothermal resource development to future population levels and the significance of geothermally induced population increase from a county planning perspective.

  15. Patterns of genetic diversity of local pig populations in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabete Cristina da Silva

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This study estimated the genetic diversity and structure of 12 genetic groups (GG of locally adapted and specialized pigs in the state of Pernambuco using 22 microsatellite markers. Nine locally adapted breeds (Baé, Caruncho, Canastra, Canastrão, Mamelado, Moura, Nilo, Piau and UDB (Undefined Breed and 3 specialized breeds (Duroc, Landrace and Large White, totaling 190 animals, were analyzed. The Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA showed that 3.2% of the total variation was due to differences between genetic groups, and 3.6% to differences between local and commercial pigs. One hundred and ninety eight alleles were identified and apart from the Large White breed, all GG presented Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium deviations for some loci. The total and effective allele means were lower for Duroc (3.65 and 3.01 and higher for UDB (8.89 and 4.53 and Canastra (8.61 and 4.58. Using Nei's standard genetic distance and the UPGMA method, it was possible to observe that the Landrace breed was grouped with the local genetic groups Canastra, Moura, Canastrão, Baé and Caruncho. Due to the complex admixture pattern, the genetic variability of the 12 genetic groups can be analyzed by distributing the individuals into two populations as demonstrated by a Bayesian analysis, corroborating the results from AMOVA, which revealed a low level of genetic differentiation between the inferred populations.

  16. Documenting and explaining the HIV decline in east Zimbabwe: the Manicaland General Population Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregson, Simon; Mugurungi, Owen; Eaton, Jeffrey; Takaruza, Albert; Rhead, Rebecca; Maswera, Rufurwokuda; Mutsvangwa, Junior; Mayini, Justin; Skovdal, Morten; Schaefer, Robin; Hallett, Timothy; Sherr, Lorraine; Munyati, Shungu; Mason, Peter; Campbell, Catherine; Garnett, Geoffrey P; Nyamukapa, Constance Anesu

    2017-10-06

    The Manicaland cohort was established to provide robust scientific data on HIV prevalence and incidence, patterns of sexual risk behaviour and the demographic impact of HIV in a sub-Saharan African population subject to a generalised HIV epidemic. The aims were later broadened to include provision of data on the coverage and effectiveness of national HIV control programmes including antiretroviral therapy (ART). General population open cohort located in 12 sites in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, representing 4 major socioeconomic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15-44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year or 3-year intervals between July 2001 and November 2013. Follow-up rates among surviving residents ranged between 77.0% (over 3 years) and 96.4% (2 years). HIV prevalence was 25.1% at baseline and had a substantial demographic impact with 10-fold higher mortality in HIV-infected adults than in uninfected adults and a reduction in the growth rate in the worst affected areas (towns) from 2.9% to 1.0%pa. HIV infection rates have been highest in young adults with earlier commencement of sexual activity and in those with older sexual partners and larger numbers of lifetime partners. HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART. We plan to extend the cohort to measure the effects on the epidemic of current and future HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Proposals for access to these data and for collaboration are welcome. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise

  17. Evaluation of episodic acidification and amphibian declines in the Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank A. Vertucci; Paul Stephen Corn

    1996-01-01

    We define criteria for documenting episodic acidification of amphibian breeding habitats and examine whether episodic acidification is responsible for observed declines of amphibian populations in the Rocky Mountains. Anthropogenic episodic acidification, caused by atmospheric deposition of sulfate and nitrate, occurs when the concentration of acid anions increases...

  18. No evident spatial genetic structuring in the rapidly declining Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa limosa in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trimbos, Krijn B.; Musters, C. J. M.; Verkuil, Yvonne I.; Kentie, Rosemarie; Piersma, Theunis; de Snoo, Geert R.

    With 40% of the European Black-tailed Godwit population breeding in The Netherlands, this country harbours internationally significant numbers of this species. However, ongoing agricultural intensification has resulted in the fragmentation of the population and drastic population declines since

  19. Analysis of Latino populations from GALA and MEC studies reveals genomic loci with biased local ancestry estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Sankararaman, Sriram; Torgerson, Dara G.; Gignoux, Christopher; Zaitlen, Noah; Eng, Celeste; Rodriguez-Cintron, William; Chapela, Rocio; Ford, Jean G.; Avila, Pedro C.; Rodriguez-Santana, Jose; Chen, Gary K.; Le Marchand, Loic; Henderson, Brian; Reich, David; Haiman, Christopher A.; Gonzàlez Burchard, Esteban; Halperin, Eran

    2013-01-01

    Motivation: Local ancestry analysis of genotype data from recently admixed populations (e.g. Latinos, African Americans) provides key insights into population history and disease genetics. Although methods for local ancestry inference have been extensively validated in simulations (under many unrealistic assumptions), no empirical study of local ancestry accuracy in Latinos exists to date. Hence, interpreting findings that rely on local ancestry in Latinos is challenging. Results: Here, we use 489 nuclear families from the mainland USA, Puerto Rico and Mexico in conjunction with 3204 unrelated Latinos from the Multiethnic Cohort study to provide the first empirical characterization of local ancestry inference accuracy in Latinos. Our approach for identifying errors does not rely on simulations but on the observation that local ancestry in families follows Mendelian inheritance. We measure the rate of local ancestry assignments that lead to Mendelian inconsistencies in local ancestry in trios (MILANC), which provides a lower bound on errors in the local ancestry estimates. We show that MILANC rates observed in simulations underestimate the rate observed in real data, and that MILANC varies substantially across the genome. Second, across a wide range of methods, we observe that loci with large deviations in local ancestry also show enrichment in MILANC rates. Therefore, local ancestry estimates at such loci should be interpreted with caution. Finally, we reconstruct ancestral haplotype panels to be used as reference panels in local ancestry inference and show that ancestry inference is significantly improved by incoroprating these reference panels. Availability and implementation: We provide the reconstructed reference panels together with the maps of MILANC rates as a public resource for researchers analyzing local ancestry in Latinos at http://bogdanlab.pathology.ucla.edu. Contact: bpasaniuc@mednet.ucla.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are

  20. Forest declines: Some perspectives on linking processes and patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLaughlin, S.B.

    1992-01-01

    The regional decline in vigor of some species of forest trees has become an important component in the ecological, aesthetic, and economic criteria by which the costs of anthropogenic pollution are weighed. Because declines are often complex and virtually never without significant natural environmental modifiers, determining the role of specific anthropogenic stresses in initiating or enhancing the rate and direction of change in forest condition represents a significant research challenge. Separation of primary mechanisms that point to principal causes from secondary responses that result from internal feedbacks and the milieu of modifying agents is a critical issue in diagnosing forest decline. Air pollutant stress may have its most significant effects on forest processes by accelerating or amplifying natural stresses. Studies of changes in forest metabolic processes have played an important role in evaluating the role of air pollution in four regional forest declines that are the focus of this paper. The decline of ponderosa pine in the San Bernardino Mountains of California, Norway spruce and silver fir in Europe, loblolly and shortleaf pine in the Southeastern United States, and red spruce in the Eastern Appalachian Mountains provide case studies in which physiological responses to air pollutants under field and laboratory conditions have provided important analytical tools for assessing likely causes. These tools are most effective when both mechanistic explanations and larger scale patterns of response are evaluated in an iterative feedback loop that examines plausible mechanisms and patterns of response at levels ranging from cell membranes to plant populations

  1. Primates decline rapidly in unprotected forests: evidence from a monitoring program with data constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovero, Francesco; Mtui, Arafat; Kitegile, Amani; Jacob, Philipo; Araldi, Alessandro; Tenan, Simone

    2015-01-01

    Growing threats to primates in tropical forests make robust and long-term population abundance assessments increasingly important for conservation. Concomitantly, monitoring becomes particularly relevant in countries with primate habitat. Yet monitoring schemes in these countries often suffer from logistic constraints and/or poor rigor in data collection, and a lack of consideration of sources of bias in analysis. To address the need for feasible monitoring schemes and flexible analytical tools for robust trend estimates, we analyzed data collected by local technicians on abundance of three species of arboreal monkey in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania (two Colobus species and one Cercopithecus), an area of international importance for primate endemism and conservation. We counted primate social groups along eight line transects in two forest blocks in the area, one protected and one unprotected, over a span of 11 years. We applied a recently proposed open metapopulation model to estimate abundance trends while controlling for confounding effects of observer, site, and season. Primate populations were stable in the protected forest, while the colobines, including the endemic Udzungwa red colobus, declined severely in the unprotected forest. Targeted hunting pressure at this second site is the most plausible explanation for the trend observed. The unexplained variability in detection probability among transects was greater than the variability due to observers, indicating consistency in data collection among observers. There were no significant differences in both primate abundance and detectability between wet and dry seasons, supporting the choice of sampling during the dry season only based on minimizing practical constraints. Results show that simple monitoring routines implemented by trained local technicians can effectively detect changes in primate populations in tropical countries. The hierarchical Bayesian model formulation adopted provides a flexible

  2. Consequences of actively managing a small Bull Trout population in a fragmented landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Moran, Sean; McHugh, Peter; Bernall, Shana; Fredenberg, Wade; DosSantos, Joseph M.

    2015-01-01

    Habitat fragmentation, which affects many native salmonid species, is one of the major factors contributing to the declines in distribution and abundance of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus. Increasingly, managers are considering options to maintain and enhance the persistence of isolated local populations through active management strategies. Understanding the ecological consequences of such actions is a necessary step in conservation planning. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the consequences of an ongoing management program aimed at mitigating the anthropogenic fragmentation of the lower Clark Fork River in Montana. Under this program juvenile Bull Trout are trapped and transported from small, headwater source populations to Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho, for rearing, and adults are subsequently recaptured in their upstream migration and returned to the natal population for spawning. We examined one of these populations and integrated empirical estimates of demographic parameters to simulate different management scenarios where moderate (n = 4) and high (n = 8) numbers of age-2, age-3, or age-4 Bull Trout were removed for transport with variable return rates under both demographic stochasticity and environmental perturbations. Our results indicated the risks from removal with no returns increased substantially when removal totals and age of Bull Trout removed from the simulated population increased. Specifically, removing eight age-3 or age-4 individuals resulted in 26% and 62% reductions in average adult population size, respectively, across simulations. We found the risks of transport were not likely alleviated with low (3%) or moderate (6%) return rates, and there were considerable risks of declines for the source population even when return rates were extremely high (>12%). Our simulations indicated little risk of declines for the source population with removals of age-2 Bull Trout, and any risks were alleviated with low return rates. However, we

  3. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M Maniscalco

    Full Text Available Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  4. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniscalco, John M; Springer, Alan M; Adkison, Milo D; Parker, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  5. Climate change, multiple stressors, and the decline of ectotherms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Palmer, Brent D

    2013-08-01

    Climate change is believed to be causing declines of ectothermic vertebrates, but there is little evidence that climatic conditions associated with declines have exceeded critical (i.e., acutely lethal) maxima or minima, and most relevant studies are correlative, anecdotal, or short-term (hours). We conducted an 11-week factorial experiment to examine the effects of temperature (22 °C or 27 °C), moisture (wet or dry), and atrazine (an herbicide; 0, 4, 40, 400 μg/L exposure as embryos and larvae) on the survival, growth, behavior, and foraging rates of postmetamorphic streamside salamanders (Ambystoma barbouri), a species of conservation concern. The tested climatic conditions were between the critical maxima and minima of streamside salamanders; thus, this experiment quantified the long-term effects of climate change within the noncritical range of this species. Despite a suite of behavioral adaptations to warm and dry conditions (e.g., burrowing, refuge use, huddling with conspecifics, and a reduction in activity), streamside salamanders exhibited significant loss of mass and significant mortality in all but the cool and moist conditions, which were closest to the climatic conditions in which they are most active in nature. A temperature of 27 °C represented a greater mortality risk than dry conditions; death occurred rapidly at this temperature and more gradually under cool and dry conditions. Foraging decreased under dry conditions, which suggests there were opportunity costs to water conservation. Exposure to the herbicide atrazine additively decreased water-conserving behaviors, foraging efficiency, mass, and time to death. Hence, the hypothesis that moderate climate change can cause population declines is even more plausible under scenarios with multiple stressors. These results suggest that climate change within the noncritical range of species and pollution may reduce individual performance by altering metabolic demands, hydration, and foraging effort

  6. Species decline: A perspective on extinction, recovery, and propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, J.W.

    1983-01-01

    This keynote address was presented at the Conference on the Conservation of Endangered Species in Zoological Parks and Aquariums on April 18, 1982 at the National Aquarium in Baltimore. It outlines 1) future trends in the world's environment, resources, and population; 2) factors affecting species decline; 3) reasons for preserving life forms; and 4) techniques, with emphasis on captive propagation, used to assist in species recovery.

  7. Amphibian populations in the terrestrial environment: Is there evidence of declines of terrestrial forest amphibians in northwestern California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwell H. Welsh Jr.; Gary M. Fellers; Amy J. Lind

    2007-01-01

    Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide; however the vast majority are species associated with aquatic habitats. Information on the status and trends of terrestrial amphibians is almost entirely lacking. Here we use data collected across a 12-yr period (sampling from 1984–86 and from 1993–95) to address the question of whether evidence exists for declines...

  8. Local knowledge and perceptions of animal population abundances by communities adjacent to the northern Gonarezhou National Park, Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gandiwa, E.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding animal abundances and population trends is a fundamental goal of ecology. The aim of this study was to examine local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by local people bordering the northern Gonarezhou National Park (GNP), Zimbabwe, concerning domestic and wild animal species abundances

  9. Population ecology and conservation status of the last natural population of English yew Taxus baccata in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenning, Jens-Christian; Magård, Else

    1999-01-01

    English yew Taxus baccata L. has become extinct or rare in many parts of Europe. Here we investigate the status of the only natural population persisting in Denmark. While many other yew populations are declining, the Danish population increased from 2000 in 1998....... This was most likely due to the thinning of the tree stand at this site, as reproductive activity, strobilus production, and recruitment were enhanced at better lit microsites. The declining status of other populations is probably often caused by succession from open woodland to dense forest. The light...... dependency is consistent with the Quaternary history of yew. The sex ratio of the Danish yew population was female-biased, probably due to chance. Yew invaded forest areas neighbouring source populations at rates of 3 m yr−1, but forest management impeded this process....

  10. Poor semen quality may contribute to recent decline in fertility rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Tina Kold; Carlsen, Elisabeth; Jørgensen, Niels; Berthelsen, Jørgen G; Keiding, Niels; Christensen, Kaare; Petersen, Jørgen Holm; Knudsen, Lisbeth B; Skakkebaek, Niels E

    2002-06-01

    During past decades, we have witnessed a remarkable decline in fertility rates (number of births per 1000 women of reproductive age) in the industrialized world. It seems beyond doubt that the enormous social changes of our societies play the major role in this decline, but can it be attributed to changing social structures alone or is a reduced fecundity in the population also a factor? To address this we have focused on trends in teenage pregnancies (which to a large extent are unplanned). During the period in question fertility rates among 15-19 year old Danish women have been falling and the decline in fertility rate is not counterbalanced by an increase in the rate of induced abortion. When seen together with recent results from Denmark, which have shown that more than 30% of 19 year old men from the general population now have sperm counts in the subfertile range, we argue that this fall may not be attributable to social factors, changes in conception practices or diminished sexual activity alone. It seems reasonable also to consider widespread poor semen quality among men as a potential contributing factor to low fertility rates among teenagers. Due to the concern caused by the low sperm count among younger Danish men, the Danish Ministries of Health and Environment have launched a surveillance programme which includes an annual examination of the semen quality in 600 young Danes from the general population. We propose that researchers in other countries with low and falling fertility rates among young women should consider the possibility that semen quality of their younger male cohorts may also have deteriorated.

  11. Population change in the former Soviet Republics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haub, C

    1994-12-01

    Demographic trends in the former Soviet Republics and Russia are summarized and discussed in this publication. The former Soviet Republics in Europe as well as Georgia and Armenia had completed or almost completed their demographic transition before October 1991. Other Central Asian republics experienced reduced mortality, but, despite rapid declines, fertility is still above replacement level (at 3-4 children per woman). The economic and social dislocation of the breakup of the republics has hastened fertility decline. The annual population growth rate of the USSR in the mid-1980s was 0.9%; this rate declined to 0.4% in 1991, and the decline has continued. The 1991 population of the USSR was 289.1 million. Between 1989 and 1991, the crude birth rate was 18/1000 population, and the crude death rate was 10/1000. The net migration rate of -4/1000 helped to reduce growth. Total fertility in the USSR was 2.3 children in 1990. In Russia, fertility declined from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. The preferred family size in Russia was 1.9 in 1990 and 1.5 in 1993. This decline occurred due to lack of confidence in the economy and insufficient income. Only 19% of women used contraception in 1990. Marriages declined after 1990. Age pyramids were similar in the republics in that there was a narrowing in the proportion aged 45-49 years, and the male population aged over 65 years was diminished, due to the effect of World War II. The cohort of those aged 20-24 years in 1992 was very small due to the small parental birth cohort. The differences in the republics was characterized as broad-based in the younger ages because of high fertility. The number of childbearing women will remain large. Life expectancy has been 70 years since the 1950s and has declined in some republics due to substandard health care, lack of job safety measures, and alcoholism. Some republics experienced increased life expectancy, but, after 1991, mortality increased. Tajikistan had the highest infant mortality

  12. Quantifying relative fishing impact on fish populations based on spatio-temporal overlap of fishing effort and stock density

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther, Morten; Eero, Margit

    2013-01-01

    Evaluations of the effects of management measures on fish populations are usually based on the analyses of population dynamics and estimates of fishing mortality from stock assessments. However, this approach may not be applicable in all cases, in particular for data-limited stocks, which may...... GAM analyses to predict local cod densities and combine this with spatio-temporal data of fishing effort based on VMS (Vessel Monitoring System). To quantify local fishing impact on the stock, retention probability of the gears is taken into account. The results indicate a substantial decline...... in the impact of the Danish demersal trawl fleet on cod in the Kattegat in recent years, due to a combination of closed areas, introduction of selective gears and changes in overall effort....

  13. Cetuximab in locally advanced head-and-neck cancer: defining the population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, C.

    2010-01-01

    Encouraging data for targeted therapy in head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma are opening new options for treatment. Phase III trials of cetuximab, an antibody directed against the epidermal growth factor receptor (egfr) have demonstrated benefit in the locally advanced and metastatic settings. Recognizing the importance of emerging therapies, Cancer Care Ontario published guideline recommendations for egfr-targeted therapy in stage iii and iv head-and-neck cancer. The present paper takes a further look at the population for whom an offer of cetuximab therapy may be appropriate. PMID:20697514

  14. Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density-dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Megan V.; Alisaukas, Ray T.; Douglas, David C.; Kellett, Dana K.

    2017-01-01

    A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992–2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May–30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment

  15. A Declining Region: Provincial Renaissance Revisited (Case of Volgograd Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drozdova Yuliya

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes findings yielded by the empirical study performed in the framework of an RGNF grant entitled “Image of a region as a communicative strategy for the authorities and mass media”. The methods of study included expert survey and formal survey (N=1000, July-September 2013, studying the opinion of respondents who were either internal experts residing in the Volgograd region (N=20; May-September 2013 or external experts who reside outside the region but maintain stable ties with the representatives of state and municipal authorities, regional mass media and business. The findings indicate that the Volgograd region has fallen behind other modernized Russian regions, that young people tend to leave it, that a negative image of the region as a declining territory persists. Answers to the open question “What is unacceptable for you in the existing image of the Volgograd region?” revealed major problems determining the local context of a declining region, and those were issues associated with inefficient regional/municipal administration: “the condition of the roads”, “constant replacement of people in the administration”, “politics as a whole”, “a destitute region without a good manager”, “unemployment”, “countryside is dying off”, “indifference of the authorities”, “roads, housing and public utilities and the administration”, “the authorities are not responsible for the people”, “the authorities do not solve the problems of the city or its people”, “thieving”, “dishonest authorities”, “the region goes to rack and ruin, no kindergartens or jobs”, “one cannot even walk in the streets”, “corruption”, “a stagnant region with low pay”, “no perspectives in the future”, “the region is stagnating due to corruption among officials”. According to the local Census Bureau, the Volgograd region can be classified as a declining territory where the population decline

  16. Novel Method of Production Decline Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Shan; Lan, Yifei; He, Lei; Jiao, Yang; Wu, Yong

    2018-02-01

    ARPS decline curves is the most commonly used in oil and gas field due to its minimal data requirements and ease application. And prediction of production decline which is based on ARPS analysis rely on known decline type. However, when coefficient index are very approximate under different decline type, it is difficult to directly recognize decline trend of matched curves. Due to difficulties above, based on simulation results of multi-factor response experiments, a new dynamic decline prediction model is introduced with using multiple linear regression of influence factors. First of all, according to study of effect factors of production decline, interaction experimental schemes are designed. Based on simulated results, annual decline rate is predicted by decline model. Moreover, the new method is applied in A gas filed of Ordos Basin as example to illustrate reliability. The result commit that the new model can directly predict decline tendency without needing recognize decline style. From arithmetic aspect, it also take advantage of high veracity. Finally, the new method improves the evaluation method of gas well production decline in low permeability gas reservoir, which also provides technical support for further understanding of tight gas field development laws.

  17. Evidence for decreasing sperm count in African population from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: This meta-analysis, following our previous reports those documented an overall 57% diminution in mean sperm concentration around the globe over past 35 years and 32.5% decline in past 50 years in European population, attempts to report the declining trend of sperm concentrations in African population ...

  18. Genetic consequences of population decline in the Danish population of the little owl (Athene noctua)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pertoldi, Cino; Pellegrino, Irene; Cucco, Maroc

    2012-01-01

    Background: Danish populations of the little owl (Athene noctua) have experienced dramaticdeclines in size over the past century. Before 1960 the little owl population was abundantin Denmark (estimated N>2000), but between 1960 and 1980 the population declinedrapidly, and since 1980 the little ow...

  19. Population connectivity of the plating coral Agaricia lamarcki from southwest Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerman, Nicholas M.; Rivera-Vicens, Ramon E.; Galaska, Matthew P.; Weil, Ernesto; Appledoorn, Richard S.; Alfaro, Monica; Schizas, Nikolaos V.

    2018-03-01

    Identifying genetic connectivity and discrete population boundaries is an important objective for management of declining Caribbean reef-building corals. A double digest restriction-associated DNA sequencing protocol was utilized to generate 321 single nucleotide polymorphisms to estimate patterns of horizontal and vertical gene flow in the brooding Caribbean plate coral, Agaricia lamarcki. Individual colonies ( n = 59) were sampled from eight locations throughout southwestern Puerto Rico from six shallow ( 10-20 m) and two mesophotic habitats ( 30-40 m). Descriptive summary statistics (fixation index, F ST), analysis of molecular variance, and analysis through landscape and ecological associations and discriminant analysis of principal components estimated high population connectivity with subtle subpopulation structure among all sampling localities.

  20. Climate change and the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris population in Baja California, Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María C García-Aguilar

    Full Text Available The Earth's climate is warming, especially in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris breeds and haul-outs on islands and the mainland of Baja California, Mexico, and California, U.S.A. At the beginning of the 21st century, numbers of elephant seals in California are increasing, but the status of Baja California populations is unknown, and some data suggest they may be decreasing. We hypothesize that the elephant seal population of Baja California is experiencing a decline because the animals are not migrating as far south due to warming sea and air temperatures. Here we assessed population trends of the Baja California population, and climate change in the region. The numbers of northern elephant seals in Baja California colonies have been decreasing since the 1990s, and both the surface waters off Baja California and the local air temperatures have warmed during the last three decades. We propose that declining population sizes may be attributable to decreased migration towards the southern portions of the range in response to the observed temperature increases. Further research is needed to confirm our hypothesis; however, if true, it would imply that elephant seal colonies of Baja California and California are not demographically isolated which would pose challenges to environmental and management policies between Mexico and the United States.

  1. Historical and contemporary DNA indicate fisher decline and isolation occurred prior to the European settlement of California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jody M Tucker

    Full Text Available Establishing if species contractions were the result of natural phenomena or human induced landscape changes is essential for managing natural populations. Fishers (Martes pennanti in California occur in two geographically and genetically isolated populations in the northwestern mountains and southern Sierra Nevada. Their isolation is hypothesized to have resulted from a decline in abundance and distribution associated with European settlement in the 1800s. However, there is little evidence to establish that fisher occupied the area between the two extant populations at that time. We analyzed 10 microsatellite loci from 275 contemporary and 21 historical fisher samples (1880-1920 to evaluate the demographic history of fisher in California. We did not find any evidence of a recent (post-European bottleneck in the northwestern population. In the southern Sierra Nevada, genetic subdivision within the population strongly influenced bottleneck tests. After accounting for genetic subdivision, we found a bottleneck signal only in the northern and central portions of the southern Sierra Nevada, indicating that the southernmost tip of these mountains may have acted as a refugium for fisher during the anthropogenic changes of the late 19(th and early 20(th centuries. Using a coalescent-based Bayesian analysis, we detected a 90% decline in effective population size and dated the time of decline to over a thousand years ago. We hypothesize that fisher distribution in California contracted to the two current population areas pre-European settlement, and that portions of the southern Sierra Nevada subsequently experienced another more recent bottleneck post-European settlement.

  2. Voice, exit and efficacy : Dealing with perceived neighbourhood decline without moving out

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Land, M.; Doff, W.

    2010-01-01

    Residents of deprived urban neighbourhoods with a changing population often experience an increase in insecurity. If they judge the change as decline, they are likely to become less satisfied with their residential situation and exhibit coping tactics. This paper combines Hirschman’s Exit, Voice and

  3. Endemic infection of the amphibian chytrid fungus in a frog community post-decline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard W R Retallick

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has been implicated in the decline and extinction of numerous frog species worldwide. In Queensland, Australia, it has been proposed as the cause of the decline or apparent extinction of at least 14 high-elevation rainforest frog species. One of these, Taudactylus eungellensis, disappeared from rainforest streams in Eungella National Park in 1985-1986, but a few remnant populations were subsequently discovered. Here, we report the analysis of B. dendrobatidis infections in toe tips of T. eungellensis and sympatric species collected in a mark-recapture study between 1994 and 1998. This longitudinal study of the fungus in individually marked frogs sheds new light on the effect of this threatening infectious process in field, as distinct from laboratory, conditions. We found a seasonal peak of infection in the cooler months, with no evidence of interannual variation. The overall prevalence of infection was 18% in T. eungellensis and 28% in Litoria wilcoxii/jungguy, a sympatric frog that appeared not to decline in 1985-1986. No infection was found in any of the other sympatric species. Most importantly, we found no consistent evidence of lower survival in T. eungellensis that were infected at the time of first capture, compared with uninfected individuals. These results refute the hypothesis that remnant populations of T. eungellensis recovered after a B. dendrobatidis epidemic because the pathogen had disappeared. They show that populations of T. eungellensis now persist with stable, endemic infections of B. dendrobatidis.

  4. Endemic infection of the amphibian chytrid fungus in a frog community post-decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retallick, Richard W R; McCallum, Hamish; Speare, Rick

    2004-11-01

    The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has been implicated in the decline and extinction of numerous frog species worldwide. In Queensland, Australia, it has been proposed as the cause of the decline or apparent extinction of at least 14 high-elevation rainforest frog species. One of these, Taudactylus eungellensis, disappeared from rainforest streams in Eungella National Park in 1985-1986, but a few remnant populations were subsequently discovered. Here, we report the analysis of B. dendrobatidis infections in toe tips of T. eungellensis and sympatric species collected in a mark-recapture study between 1994 and 1998. This longitudinal study of the fungus in individually marked frogs sheds new light on the effect of this threatening infectious process in field, as distinct from laboratory, conditions. We found a seasonal peak of infection in the cooler months, with no evidence of interannual variation. The overall prevalence of infection was 18% in T. eungellensis and 28% in Litoria wilcoxii/jungguy, a sympatric frog that appeared not to decline in 1985-1986. No infection was found in any of the other sympatric species. Most importantly, we found no consistent evidence of lower survival in T. eungellensis that were infected at the time of first capture, compared with uninfected individuals. These results refute the hypothesis that remnant populations of T. eungellensis recovered after a B. dendrobatidis epidemic because the pathogen had disappeared. They show that populations of T. eungellensis now persist with stable, endemic infections of B. dendrobatidis.

  5. Local population and regional environmental drivers of cholera in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Escamilla Veronica

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Regional environmental factors have been shown to be related to cholera. Previous work in Bangladesh found that temporal patterns of cholera are positively related to satellite-derived environmental variables including ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC. Methods This paper investigates whether local socio-economic status (SES modifies the effect of regional environmental forces. The study area is Matlab, Bangladesh, an area of approximately 200,000 people with an active health and demographic surveillance system. Study data include (1 spatially-referenced demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the population; (2 satellite-derived variables for sea surface temperature (SST, sea surface height (SSH, and OCC; and (3 laboratory confirmed cholera case data for the entire population. Relationships between cholera, the environmental variables, and SES are measured using generalized estimating equations with a logit link function. Additionally two separate seasonal models are built because there are two annual cholera epidemics, one pre-monsoon, and one post-monsoon. Results SES has a significant impact on cholera occurrence: the higher the SES score, the lower the occurrence of cholera. There is a significant negative association between cholera incidence and SSH during the pre-monsoon period but not for the post-monsoon period. OCC is positively associated with cholera during the pre-monsoon period but not for the post-monsoon period. SST is not related to cholera incidence. Conclusions Overall, it appears cholera is influenced by regional environmental variables during the pre-monsoon period and by local-level variables (e.g., water and sanitation during the post-monsoon period. In both pre- and post-monsoon seasons, SES significantly influences these patterns, likely because it is a proxy for poor water quality and sanitation in poorer households.

  6. Growing massive black holes in a Local Group environment: the central supermassive, slowly sinking and ejected populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micic, Miroslav; Holley-Bockelmann, Kelly; Sigurdsson, Steinn

    2011-06-01

    We explore the growth of ≤107 M⊙ black holes that reside at the centres of spiral and field dwarf galaxies in a Local Group type of environment. We use merger trees from a cosmological N-body simulation known as Via Lactea 2 (VL-2) as a framework to test two merger-driven semi-analytic recipes for black hole growth that include dynamical friction, tidal stripping and gravitational wave recoil in over 20 000 merger tree realizations. First, we apply a Fundamental Plane limited (FPL) model to the growth of Sgr A*, which drives the central black hole to a maximum mass limited by the black hole Fundamental Plane after every merger. Next, we present a new model that allows for low-level prolonged gas accretion (PGA) during the merger. We find that both models can generate an Sgr A* mass black hole. We predict a population of massive black holes in local field dwarf galaxies - if the VL-2 simulation is representative of the growth of the Local Group, we predict up to 35 massive black holes (≤106 M⊙) in Local Group field dwarfs. We also predict that hundreds of ≤105 M⊙ black holes fail to merge, and instead populate the Milky Way halo, with the most massive of them at roughly the virial radius. In addition, we find that there may be hundreds of massive black holes ejected from their hosts into the nearby intergalactic medium due to gravitational wave recoil. We discuss how the black hole population in the Local Group field dwarfs may help to constrain the growth mechanism for Sgr A*.

  7. Does conservation on farmland contribute to halting the biodiversity decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleijn, David; Rundlöf, Maj; Scheper, Jeroen; Smith, Henrik G; Tscharntke, Teja

    2011-09-01

    Biodiversity continues to decline, despite the implementation of international conservation conventions and measures. To counteract biodiversity loss, it is pivotal to know how conservation actions affect biodiversity trends. Focussing on European farmland species, we review what is known about the impact of conservation initiatives on biodiversity. We argue that the effects of conservation are a function of conservation-induced ecological contrast, agricultural land-use intensity and landscape context. We find that, to date, only a few studies have linked local conservation effects to national biodiversity trends. It is therefore unknown how the extensive European agri-environmental budget for conservation on farmland contributes to the policy objectives to halt biodiversity decline. Based on this review, we identify new research directions addressing this important knowledge gap. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Effects of experimental removal of barred owls on population demography of northern spotted owls in Washington and Oregon—2015 progress report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiens, J. David; Dugger, Katie M.; Lewicki, Krista E.; Simon, David C.

    2016-03-14

    Evidence indicates that competition with newly established barred owls (Strix varia) is causing rapid declines in populations of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), and that the longterm persistence of spotted owls may be in question without additional management intervention. A pilot study in California showed that lethal removal of barred owls in combination with habitat conservation may be able to slow or even reverse population declines of spotted owls at local scales, but it remains unknown whether similar results can be obtained in larger areas with different forest conditions and where barred owls are more abundant. In 2015, we implemented a before-after-controlimpact (BACI) experimental design on two study areas in Oregon and Washington with at least 20 years of pre-treatment demographic data on spotted owls to determine if removal of barred owls can improve population trends of spatially associated spotted owls. Here we provide an overview of our research accomplishments and preliminary results in Oregon and Washington in 2015.

  9. Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth...

  10. Assessing the links among environmental contaminants, endocrinology, and parasites to understand amphibian declines in montane regions of Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leary, Christopher J; Ralicki, Hannah F; Laurencio, David; Crocker-Buta, Sarah; Malone, John H

    2018-01-01

    Amphibians inhabiting montane riparian zones in the Neotropics are particularly vulnerable to decline, but the reasons are poorly understood. Because environmental contaminants, endocrine disruption, and pathogens often figure prominently in amphibian declines it is imperative that we understand how these factors are potentially interrelated to affect montane populations. One possibility is that increased precipitation associated with global warming promotes the deposition of contaminants in montane regions. Increased exposure to contaminants, in turn, potentially elicits chronic elevations in circulating stress hormones that could contribute to montane population declines by compromising resistance to pathogens and/or production of sex steroids regulating reproduction. Here, we test this hypothesis by examining contaminant levels, stress and sex steroid levels, and nematode abundances in male drab treefrogs, Smilisca sordida, from lowland and montane populations in Costa Rica. We found no evidence that montane populations were more likely to possess contaminants (i.e., organochlorine, organophosphate and carbamate pesticides or benzidine and chlorophenoxy herbicides) than lowland populations. We also found no evidence of elevational differences in circulating levels of the stress hormone corticosterone, estradiol or progesterone. However, montane populations possessed lower androgen levels, hosted more nematode species, and had higher nematode abundances than lowland populations. Although these results suggested that nematodes contributed to lower androgens in montane populations, we were unable to detect a significant inverse relationship between nematode abundance and androgen level. Our results suggest that montane populations of this species are not at greater risk of exposure to contaminants or chronic stress, but implicate nematodes and compromised sex steroid levels as potential threats to montane populations.

  11. Assessing the links among environmental contaminants, endocrinology, and parasites to understand amphibian declines in montane regions of Costa Rica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher J Leary

    Full Text Available Amphibians inhabiting montane riparian zones in the Neotropics are particularly vulnerable to decline, but the reasons are poorly understood. Because environmental contaminants, endocrine disruption, and pathogens often figure prominently in amphibian declines it is imperative that we understand how these factors are potentially interrelated to affect montane populations. One possibility is that increased precipitation associated with global warming promotes the deposition of contaminants in montane regions. Increased exposure to contaminants, in turn, potentially elicits chronic elevations in circulating stress hormones that could contribute to montane population declines by compromising resistance to pathogens and/or production of sex steroids regulating reproduction. Here, we test this hypothesis by examining contaminant levels, stress and sex steroid levels, and nematode abundances in male drab treefrogs, Smilisca sordida, from lowland and montane populations in Costa Rica. We found no evidence that montane populations were more likely to possess contaminants (i.e., organochlorine, organophosphate and carbamate pesticides or benzidine and chlorophenoxy herbicides than lowland populations. We also found no evidence of elevational differences in circulating levels of the stress hormone corticosterone, estradiol or progesterone. However, montane populations possessed lower androgen levels, hosted more nematode species, and had higher nematode abundances than lowland populations. Although these results suggested that nematodes contributed to lower androgens in montane populations, we were unable to detect a significant inverse relationship between nematode abundance and androgen level. Our results suggest that montane populations of this species are not at greater risk of exposure to contaminants or chronic stress, but implicate nematodes and compromised sex steroid levels as potential threats to montane populations.

  12. Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

    2012-11-01

    Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied. If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model, climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the ~2.5°C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatchling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline, but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation) may be able to preserve the nesting population.

  13. Count data, detection probabilities, and the demography, dynamics, distribution, and decline of amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Benedikt R

    2003-08-01

    The evidence for amphibian population declines is based on count data that were not adjusted for detection probabilities. Such data are not reliable even when collected using standard methods. The formula C = Np (where C is a count, N the true parameter value, and p is a detection probability) relates count data to demography, population size, or distributions. With unadjusted count data, one assumes a linear relationship between C and N and that p is constant. These assumptions are unlikely to be met in studies of amphibian populations. Amphibian population data should be based on methods that account for detection probabilities.

  14. Citizen Science Program Shows Urban Areas Have Lower Occurrence of Frog Species, but Not Accelerated Declines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin J Westgate

    Full Text Available Understanding the influence of landscape change on animal populations is critical to inform biodiversity conservation efforts. A particularly important goal is to understand how urban density affects the persistence of animal populations through time, and how these impacts can be mediated by habitat provision; but data on this question are limited for some taxa. Here, we use data from a citizen science monitoring program to investigate the effect of urbanization on patterns of frog species richness and occurrence over 13 years. Sites surrounded by a high proportion of bare ground (a proxy for urbanization had consistently lower frog occurrence, but we found no evidence that declines were restricted to urban areas. Instead, several frog species showed declines in rural wetlands with low-quality habitat. Our analysis shows that urban wetlands had low but stable species richness; but also that population trajectories are strongly influenced by vegetation provision in both the riparian zone and the wider landscape. Future increases in the extent of urban environments in our study area are likely to negatively impact populations of several frog species. However, existing urban areas are unlikely to lose further frog species in the medium term. We recommend that landscape planning and management focus on the conservation and restoration of rural wetlands to arrest current declines, and the revegetation of urban wetlands to facilitate the re-expansion of urban-sensitive species.

  15. Massive decline of Cystoseira abies-marina forests in Gran Canaria Island (Canary Islands, eastern Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Valdazo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Brown macroalgae within the genus Cystoseira are some of the most relevant “ecosystem-engineers” found throughout the Mediterranean and the adjacent Atlantic coasts. Cystoseira-dominated assemblages are sensitive to anthropogenic pressures, and historical declines have been reported from some regions. In particular, Cystoseira abies-marina, thriving on shallow rocky shores, is a key species for the ecosystems of the Canary Islands. In this work, we analyse changes in the distribution and extension of C. abies-marina in the last decades on the island of Gran Canaria. This alga dominated the shallow rocky shores of the entire island in the 1980s; a continuous belt extended along 120.5 km of the coastline and occupied 928 ha. In the first decade of the 21st century, fragmented populations were found along 52.2 km of the coastline and occupied 12.6 ha. Today, this species is found along 37.8 km of the coastline and occupies only 7.4 ha, mainly as scattered patches. This regression has been drastic around the whole island, even in areas with low anthropogenic pressure; the magnitude of the decline over time and the intensity of local human impacts have not shown a significant correlation. This study highlights a real need to implement conservation and restoration policies for C. abies-marina in this region.

  16. Growth, survival, longevity, and population size of the Big Mouth Cave salamander (Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides) from the type locality in Grundy County, Tennessee, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemiller, Matthew L.; Glorioso, Brad M.; Fenolio, Dante B.; Reynolds, R. Graham; Taylor, Steven J.; Miller, Brian T.

    2016-01-01

    Salamander species that live entirely in subterranean habitats have evolved adaptations that allow them to cope with perpetual darkness and limited energy resources. We conducted a 26-month mark–recapture study to better understand the individual growth and demography of a population of the Big Mouth Cave Salamander (Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides). We employed a growth model to estimate growth rates, age at sexual maturity, and longevity, and an open population model to estimate population size, density, detectability, and survival rates. Furthermore, we examined cover use and evidence of potential predation. Individuals probably reach sexual maturity in 3–5 years and live at least nine years. Survival rates were generally high (>75%) but declined during the study. More than 30% of captured salamanders had regenerating tails or tail damage, which presumably represent predation attempts by conspecifics or crayfishes. Most salamanders (>90%) were found under cover (e.g., rocks, trash, decaying plant material). Based on 11 surveys during the study, population size estimates ranged from 21 to 104 individuals in the ca. 710 m2 study area. Previous surveys indicated that this population experienced a significant decline from the early 1970s through the 1990s, perhaps related to silvicultural and agricultural practices. However, our data suggest that this population has either recovered or stabilized during the past 20 years. Differences in relative abundance between early surveys and our survey could be associated with differences in survey methods or sampling conditions rather than an increase in population size. Regardless, our study demonstrates that this population is larger than previously thought and is in no immediate risk of extirpation, though it does appear to exhibit higher rates of predation than expected for a species believed to be an apex predator of subterranean food webs.

  17. Effects of Lead Exposure, Environmental Conditions, and Metapopulation Processes on Population Dynamics of Spectacled Eiders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Petersen, Margaret; Rockwell, Robert F.

    2016-01-01

    Spectacled eider Somateria fischeri numbers have declined and they are considered threatened in accordance with the US Endangered Species Act throughout their range. We synthesized the available information for spectacled eiders to construct deterministic, stochastic, and metapopulation models for this species that incorporated current estimates of vital rates such as nest success, adult survival, and the impact of lead poisoning on survival. Elasticities of our deterministic models suggested that the populations would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival and that the reductions in adult female survival related to lead poisoning were locally important. We also examined the sensitivity of the population to changes in lead exposure rates. With the knowledge that some vital rates vary with environmental conditions, we cast stochastic models that mimicked observed variation in productivity. We also used the stochastic model to examine the probability that a specific population will persist for periods of up to 50 y. Elasticity analysis of these models was consistent with that for the deterministic models, with perturbations to adult female survival having the greatest effect on population projections. When used in single population models, demographic data for some localities predicted rapid declines that were inconsistent with our observations in the field. Thus, we constructed a metapopulation model and examined the predictions for local subpopulations and the metapopulation over a wide range of dispersal rates. Using the metapopulation model, we were able to simulate the observed stability of local subpopulations as well as that of the metapopulation. Finally, we developed a global metapopulation model that simulates periodic winter habitat limitation, similar to that which might be experienced in years of heavy sea ice in the core wintering area of spectacled eiders in the central Bering Sea. Our metapopulation analyses suggested that no

  18. Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ronald; Mason, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Across the demographic transition, declining mortality followed by declining fertility produces decades of rising support ratios as child dependency falls. These improving support ratios raise per capita consumption, other things equal, but eventually deteriorate as the population ages. Population aging and the forces leading to it can produce not only frightening declines in support ratios but also very substantial increases in productivity and per capita income by raising investment in physical and human capital. Longer life, lower fertility, and population aging all raise the demand for wealth needed to provide for old-age consumption. This leads to increased capital per worker even as aggregate saving rates fall. However, capital per worker may not rise if the increased demand for wealth is satisfied by increased familial or public pension transfers to the elderly. Thus, institutions and policies matter for the consequences of population aging. The accumulation of human capital also varies across the transition. Lower fertility and mortality are associated with higher human capital investment per child, also raising labor productivity. Together, the positive changes due to human and physical capital accumulation will likely outweigh the problems of declining support ratios. We draw on estimates and analyses from the National Transfer Accounts project to illustrate and quantify these points.

  19. Autopsy rates in the Netherlands: 35 years of decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blokker, Britt M; Weustink, Annick C; Hunink, M G Myriam; Oosterhuis, J Wolter

    2017-01-01

    Although the autopsy still is a valuable tool in health statistics, health care quality control, medical education, and biomedical research, autopsy rates have been declining worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine trends of overall, clinical and forensic autopsy rates among adults in the Netherlands over the last four decades, and trends per sex, age (groups), and hospital type. We performed a retrospective study covering 35 years of Dutch national death counts (1977-2011), the number of in-hospital deceased patients, the number of deaths due to external causes, and the proportion of autopsies performed in these populations. The effects of sex, age and hospital category were analysed by linear and logistic regression and differences were evaluated by chi-square tests. Overall autopsy rates declined by 0.3% per calendar year, clinical autopsy rates by 0.7% per calendar year (from 31.4% to 7.7%), and forensic autopsy rates did not decline. Per calendar year the fraction of in-hospital deceased patients decreased by 0.2%. Autopsy rates were highest among men and younger patients; clinical autopsy rates were highest for patients dying in academic hospitals. In the Netherlands clinical autopsy rates have rapidly declined while at the same time the fraction of in-hospital deaths decreased, both contributing to the overall reduced absolute number of autopsies performed. It is important to improve awareness among both clinicians and general practitioners of the significance of the clinical autopsy.

  20. Determination of Mean Glycated Haemoglobin in Healthy Adults of a Local Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nida, Sumbal; Khan, Dilshad Ahmed; Ijaz, Aamir; Khan, Muhammad Qaiser Alam; Aleef, Hira; Abbasi, Maria

    2017-07-01

    To determine the mean hemoglobin HbA1C levels of disease-free adults in a local population and its optimum cutoff for the diagnosis of diabetes. Cross-sectional study. Department of Chemical Pathology and Endocrinology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rawalpindi, from January to September 2015. Healthy subjects aged 18 years and above of either gender were recruited from local population. Pregnant ladies and individuals with known diabetes, chronic kidney disease, chronic liver disease, congestive cardiac failure, anemia, hemoglobinopathies, mental illness and individuals on glucocorticoid therapy were excluded. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) or 2-hour plasma glucose (2-h PG) was analyzed using hexokinase methodology and glycated hemoglobin (Hb A1C) was also analyzed using turbidimetric inhibition immunoassay technique. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. Differences among the groups were tested by one-way ANOVA, and p <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Among 558 subjects, 88.8% (496) were normoglycaemic (NG), 5.7% (32) were with impaired glucose fasting (IFG), and 5.4% (30) were diagnosed with diabetes mellitus (DM). A1C was 5.00 ±0.44% in NG and 6.28 ±1.16% in diabetics. FPG in NG was 4.55 ±0.95 mmol/Land in diabetics was 8.28 ±1.78 mmol/L. The optimal HbA1C cutoff value for diagnosis of DM was at 6.05% (AUC 0.827 95% CI 0.732 to 0.923, p ≤0.05 with its sensitivity of 53.3% and specificity of 98.5%. However, HbA1C showed suboptimal sensitivity and specificity for prediabetes. The mean HbAIC and cutoff point for diabetes in the study population is 5.07 ±0.58% and 6.05%, respectively (AUC 0.827, 95% CI: 0.732 to 0.923, p<0.001) with 53.3% sensitivity and 98.5% specificity.

  1. Population and development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okita, S

    1989-03-01

    This speech on the life and work of Rafael Salas, who had been the first executive director of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and who contributed immensely to global awareness of population as a vital issue, inaugurated the Rafael M. Salas Lecture Series at the UN. Salas was concerned with individual rights and socioeconomic development while maintaining a balance between population and the environment. He built a large multinational assistance program for population activities and increased funding from $2.5 million in 1969 to $175 million to support 2500 projects in 130 developing countries. He organized both the 1974 World Population Conference and the 1984 International Conference on Population. In developing countries malnutrition and poverty are intertwined, lowering productivity and making people prone to diseases. Infant and child mortality rises with the malnutrition of mothers, therefore campaigns modelled after the postwar Japanese efforts are needed to improve nutrition, to train dietitians, and to introduce school lunch programs. Population stabilization could also be achieved in developing countries by raising income levels, although in Latin American countries birth rates have stayed the same despite increasing income. Direct measures are effective in reducing the birth rate: primary school education, increased income, improved nutrition, decline in infant mortality, higher status of women, and decisive governmental population policy. The Club of Rome report The Limits to Growth predicted that sometime in the 21st century a sudden decline in both population and industrial capacity will be reached at the present growth trends.

  2. Evaluating Banking Profit Performance in Ghana during and post Profit Decline: A five Step Du-Pont Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baah Aye Kusi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study we aimed at three objectives. First, identify and rank banks based on a composite score comprising of all five du-pont variables. Second, we identify variables in the five step du-pont set up that are most likely to influence bank ROE during and post profit declining periods. And third, we estimate a model to capture the variables that drive bank ROE during and post profit declining periods. We first establish from our rankings that, foreign banks in Ghana performed better during profit declining periods while the local banks performed better in post profit decline periods using the top ten banks as a benchmark in both periods. Employing Pearson correlation coefficients matrix, we recognized that operating profit margin, asset turnover and leverage were most likely to influence bank ROE in both time periods. We further employ OLS regression and find that bank ROE was impacted by operating profit margin and leverage during profit declining periods and post profit decline while tax effect added up in post profit declining periods.

  3. The role of marine reserves in the replenishment of a locally-impacted population of anemonefish on the Great Barrier Reef

    KAUST Repository

    Bonin, Mary C.; Harrison, Hugo B.; Williamson, David H.; Frisch, Ashley J.; Saenz Agudelo, Pablo; Berumen, Michael L.; Jones, Geoffrey P.

    2015-01-01

    The development of parentage analysis to track the dispersal of juvenile offspring has given us unprecedented insight into the population dynamics of coral reef fishes. These tools now have the potential to inform fisheries management and species conservation, particularly for small fragmented populations under threat from exploitation and disturbance. In this study we resolve patterns of larval dispersal for a population of the anemonefish Amphiprion melanopus in the Keppel Islands (southern Great Barrier Reef). Habitat loss and fishing appear to have impacted this population and a network of no-take marine reserves currently protects 75% of the potential breeders. Using parentage analysis, we estimate that 21% of recruitment in the island group was generated locally, and that breeding adults living in reserves were responsible for 79% (31 out of 39) of these of locally-produced juveniles. Overall, the network of reserves was fully connected via larval dispersal; however one reserve was identified as a critical source of larvae for the island group. The population in the Keppel Islands also appears to be well-connected to other source populations at least 60 km away, given that 79% (145 out of 184) of the juveniles sampled remained unassigned in the parentage analysis. We estimated the effective size of the A. melanopus metapopulation to be 745 (582-993 95% CI) and recommend continued monitoring of its genetic status. Maintaining connectivity with populations beyond the Keppel Islands and recovery of local recruitment habitat, potentially through active restoration of host anemone populations, will be important for its long-term persistence.

  4. The role of marine reserves in the replenishment of a locally-impacted population of anemonefish on the Great Barrier Reef

    KAUST Repository

    Bonin, Mary C.

    2015-11-21

    The development of parentage analysis to track the dispersal of juvenile offspring has given us unprecedented insight into the population dynamics of coral reef fishes. These tools now have the potential to inform fisheries management and species conservation, particularly for small fragmented populations under threat from exploitation and disturbance. In this study we resolve patterns of larval dispersal for a population of the anemonefish Amphiprion melanopus in the Keppel Islands (southern Great Barrier Reef). Habitat loss and fishing appear to have impacted this population and a network of no-take marine reserves currently protects 75% of the potential breeders. Using parentage analysis, we estimate that 21% of recruitment in the island group was generated locally, and that breeding adults living in reserves were responsible for 79% (31 out of 39) of these of locally-produced juveniles. Overall, the network of reserves was fully connected via larval dispersal; however one reserve was identified as a critical source of larvae for the island group. The population in the Keppel Islands also appears to be well-connected to other source populations at least 60 km away, given that 79% (145 out of 184) of the juveniles sampled remained unassigned in the parentage analysis. We estimated the effective size of the A. melanopus metapopulation to be 745 (582-993 95% CI) and recommend continued monitoring of its genetic status. Maintaining connectivity with populations beyond the Keppel Islands and recovery of local recruitment habitat, potentially through active restoration of host anemone populations, will be important for its long-term persistence.

  5. Declining amenable mortality: a reflection of health care systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gianino, Maria Michela; Lenzi, Jacopo; Fantini, Maria Pia; Ricciardi, Walter; Damiani, Gianfranco

    2017-11-15

    Some studies have analyzed the association of health care systems variables, such as health service resources or expenditures, with amenable mortality, but the association of types of health care systems with the decline of amenable mortality has yet to be studied. The present study examines whether specific health care system types are associated with different time trend declines in amenable mortality from 2000 to 2014 in 22 European OECD countries. A time trend analysis was performed. Using Nolte and McKee's list, age-standardized amenable mortality rates (SDRs) were calculated as the annual number of deaths over the population aged 0-74 years per 100,000 inhabitants. We classified health care systems according to a deductively generated classification by Böhm. This classification identifies three dimensions that are not entirely independent of each other but follow a clear order: the regulation dimension is first, followed by the financing dimension and finally service provision. We performed a hierarchical semi-log polynomial regression analysis on the annual SDRs to determine whether specific health care systems were associated with different SDR trajectories over time. The results showed a clear decline in SDRs in all 22 health care systems between 2000 and 2014 although at different annual changes (slopes). Regression analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the slopes according to provision dimension. Health care systems with a private provision exhibited a slowdown in the decline of amenable mortality over time. It therefore seems that ownership is the most relevant dimension in determining a different pattern of decline in mortality. All countries experienced decreases in amenable mortality between 2000 and 2014; this decline seems to be partially a reflection of health care systems, especially when affected by the provision dimension. If the private ownership is maintained or promoted by health systems, these findings might be

  6. Assessing local population vulnerability to wind energy development with branching process models: an application to wind energy development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Richard A.; Eager, Eric A.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic development on local populations is important for conservation biology and wildlife management. However, these local populations are often subject to demographic stochasticity because of their small population size. Traditional modeling efforts such as population projection matrices do not consider this source of variation whereas individual-based models, which include demographic stochasticity, are computationally intense and lack analytical tractability. One compromise between approaches is branching process models because they accommodate demographic stochasticity and are easily calculated. These models are known within some sub-fields of probability and mathematical ecology but are not often applied in conservation biology and applied ecology. We applied branching process models to quantitatively compare and prioritize species locally vulnerable to the development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, we examined species vulnerability using branching process models for four representative species: A cave bat (a long-lived, low fecundity species), a tree bat (short-lived, moderate fecundity species), a grassland songbird (a short-lived, high fecundity species), and an eagle (a long-lived, slow maturation species). Wind turbine-induced mortality has been observed for all of these species types, raising conservation concerns. We simulated different mortality rates from wind farms while calculating local extinction probabilities. The longer-lived species types (e.g., cave bats and eagles) had much more pronounced transitions from low extinction risk to high extinction risk than short-lived species types (e.g., tree bats and grassland songbirds). High-offspring-producing species types had a much greater variability in baseline risk of extinction than the lower-offspring-producing species types. Long-lived species types may appear stable until a critical level of incidental mortality occurs. After this threshold, the risk of

  7. Effect of root strength and soil saturation on hillslope stability in forests with natural cedar decline in headwater regions of SE Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adelaide C. Johnson; Peter. Wilcock

    1998-01-01

    A natural decline in the population of yellow-cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis) is occurring in pristine southeast Alaska forests and may be the most significant forest decline in the western United States. The frequency of landslides in cedar decline areas is three times larger than in areas of healthy forest. Three regions are investigated in...

  8. Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

    2014-01-01

    The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

  9. In the engine room of localization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Steffen; Noe, Egon

    The rural landscapes of the western world have been radically changing in the past decades. Agricultural production no longer defines rural landscapes and rural landscapes are becoming increasingly heterogeneous. Multiple actors are driving the changes in the rural: farmers engaging in new...... activities, local, national and supranational policy makers, returnees and in-migrants engage in new activities in the face of general – albeit unevenly distributed decline in population, capital and services. In the many research streams trying to come to grips with the changes in the rural landscape...... the “entrepreneur” is a recurring figure; typically seen as a change agent of new economic activities, often cast in the role of astute businessman seeking short term profit. While this resonates to some extent with the tradition of the entrepreneurship field, this view is problematic in several respects. Firstly...

  10. Association of incidental emphysema with annual lung function decline and future development of airflow limitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koo HK

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Hyeon-Kyoung Koo,1 Kwang Nam Jin,2 Deog Kyeom Kim,3 Hee Soon Chung,3 Chang-Hoon Lee3,4 1Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, College of Medicine, Ilsan Paik Hospital, Inje University, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-Do, 2Department of Radiology, Seoul Metropolitan Government – Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, 3Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Seoul Metropolitan Government-Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, 4Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea Objectives: Emphysema is one of the prognostic factors for rapid lung function decline in patients with COPD, but the impact of incidentally detected emphysema on population without spirometric abnormalities has not been evaluated. This study aimed to determine whether emphysema detected upon computed tomography (CT screening would accelerate the rate of lung function decline and influence the possibility of future development of airflow limitation in a population without spirometric abnormalities.Materials and methods: Subjects who participated in a routine screening for health checkup and follow-up pulmonary function tests for at least 3 years between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively enrolled. The percentage of low-attenuation area below −950 Hounsfield units (%LAA−950 was calculated automatically. A calculated value of %LAA−950 that exceeded 10% was defined as emphysema. Adjusted annual lung function decline was analyzed using random-slope, random-intercept mixed linear regression models.Results: A total of 628 healthy subjects within the normal range of spriometric values were included. Multivariable analysis showed that the emphysema group exhibited a faster decline in forced vital capacity (−33.9 versus −18.8

  11. Unexpected decline in tuberculosis cases coincident with economic recession -- United States, 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winston Carla A

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since 1953, through the cooperation of state and local health departments, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC has collected information on incident cases of tuberculosis (TB disease in the United States. In 2009, TB case rates declined -11.4%, compared to an average annual -3.8% decline since 2000. The unexpectedly large decline raised concerns that TB cases may have gone unreported. To address the unexpected decline, we examined trends from multiple sources on TB treatment initiation, medication sales, and laboratory and genotyping data on culture-positive TB. Methods We analyzed 142,174 incident TB cases reported to the U. S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS during January 1, 2000-December 31, 2009; TB control program data from 59 public health reporting areas; self-reported data from 50 CDC-funded public health laboratories; monthly electronic prescription claims for new TB therapy prescriptions; and complete genotyping results available for NTSS cases. Accounting for prior trends using regression and time-series analyses, we calculated the deviation between observed and expected TB cases in 2009 according to patient and clinical characteristics, and assessed at what point in time the deviation occurred. Results The overall deviation in TB cases in 2009 was -7.9%, with -994 fewer cases reported than expected (P Conclusions Our assessments show that the decline in reported TB was not an artifact of changes in surveillance methods; rather, similar declines were found through multiple data sources. While the steady decline of TB cases before 2009 suggests ongoing improvement in TB control, we were not able to identify any substantial change in TB control activities or TB transmission that would account for the abrupt decline in 2009. It is possible that other multiple causes coincident with economic recession in the United States, including decreased immigration and delayed access to

  12. Population growth in Shanghai and its characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K

    1985-07-01

    There has been an astonishing change in Shanghai's natural population growth over the past 34 years, with a significant difference between urban and suburban areas. In 1954, the birth rate reached as high as 52.6/1000 and the death rate dropped as low as 7.1/1000, the natural growth rate being 45.4/1000. The substantial decline in the rate of natural increase in Shanghai is due to the enormous achievements of family planning programs. In 1983, the 1-child rate of Shanghai areas was 96.56%, with that in urban areas reaching 99.36% and that in rural areas 92.4%. In the last decade, with the development of industrial production, several satellite cities have been built, attracting some of the urban residents from the city proper. The 5 characteristics relating to Shanghai's population growth are: 1) population density is high and population distribution is uneven; 2) fertility declined drastically in the 1970s; 3) the proportion of young is declining and the proportion of aged is increasing; 4) the mortality has been declining steadily, resulting in a longer life expectancy; and 5) the sex ratio has evened out since the liberation when males greatly outnumbered females. These factors point out the arduous task for family planning in the coming years. The enormous population and the increasing number of young people at child bearing ages point out the necessity of carrying on the family planning program.

  13. Declining Segregation of Same-Sex Partners: Evidence from Census 2000 and 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Despite recent media and scholarly attention describing the “disappearance” of traditionally gay neighborhoods, urban scholars have yet to quantify the segregation of same-sex partners and determine whether declining segregation from different-sex partners is a wide-spread trend. Focusing on the 100 most populous places in the United States, I use data from the 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census to examine the segregation of same-sex partners over time and its place-level correlates. I estimate linear regression models to examine the role of four place characteristics in particular: average levels of education, aggregate trends in the family life cycle of same-sex partners, violence and social hostility motivated by sexual orientation bias, and representation of same-sex partners in the overall population. On average, same-sex partners were less segregated from different-sex partners in 2010 than in 2000, and the vast majority of same-sex partners lived in environments of declining segregation. Segregation was lower and declined more rapidly in places that had a greater percentage of graduate degree holders. In addition, segregation of female partners was lower in places that had a greater share of female partner households with children. These findings suggest that sexual orientation should be considered alongside economic status, race, and ethnicity as an important factor that contributes to neighborhood differentiation and urban spatial inequality. PMID:24187412

  14. Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.

    2013-11-01

    The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other

  15. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Magera

    Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

  16. Subjective cognitive decline and fall risk in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Tashiro, Yuto; Nozaki, Yuma; Aoyama, Tomoki

    2018-05-01

    The association between subjective cognitive decline and falls has not been clearly determined. Our aim was to explore the effect of subjective cognitive decline on falls in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline. We included 470 older adults (mean age 73.6 ± 5.2; 329 women) living in the community and obtained data on fall history directly from the participants. Subjective cognitive decline was assessed using a self-administered question. Objective cognitive function was measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Statistical analyses were carried out separately for participants with objective cognitive decline and those without. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, among participants without objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls [OR 1.91; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-3.12; p = 0.01). Conversely, among participants with objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was negatively associated with falls (OR 0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.85, p = 0.04). The result suggests that the objective-subjective disparity may affect falls in community-dwelling older adults. The presence of subjective cognitive decline was significantly positively associated with falls among cognitively intact older adults. However, among their cognitively impaired peers, the absence of subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls.

  17. The decline of cisco Coregonus artedi at its southern range extent: Stock biology and management implications

    OpenAIRE

    Honsey, Andrew E.

    2014-01-01

    The cisco Coregonus artedi is distributed throughout northern North America and is relegated to coldwater, oligotrophic systems. Populations of cisco located at the species' southern range extent, including northern Indiana and southern Michigan, have drastically declined over the past century, seemingly due to a combination of climate warming and exacerbation of hypolimnetic hypoxic conditions via intensive land-use and resulting increases in nutrient loading. Apart from their decline, infor...

  18. Use of the Internet as a prevention tool against cognitive decline in normal aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimova, Blanka

    Recent demographic trends indicate that older people appear to be one of the fastest growing population groups worldwide. In the year 2000, people older than 65 years represented 12.4% of the population. This number is expected to rise to 19% by 2030, particularly in developed countries. Therefore, there is sustained effort at both national and international levels to prolong the active life of these people as long as possible. Since the present older generation at the age of 55 years is already digitally literate, the use of technologies is one of the solutions. The purpose of this study is to discuss the role of the Internet in the prevention of cognitive decline in normal aging. The author examines clinical studies that exploit the use of the Internet, including online training programs, in the prevention of cognitive decline in healthy older individuals. The findings of the clinical studies indicate that the use of the Internet, especially online cognitive training programs, may have a positive effect on the improvement of cognitive functions in healthy older adults. Nevertheless, larger sample longitudinal randomized controlled clinical trials aimed at the prevention of cognitive decline among healthy older adults are needed.

  19. Evidence for declining numbers of Ebola cases--Montserrado County, Liberia, June-October 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Westercamp, Matthew; Kamali, Amanda Ashraf; Qin, Jin; Zielinski-Gutierrez, Emily; Amegashie, Fred; Fallah, Mosaka; Gergonne, Bernadette; Nugba-Ballah, Roselyn; Singh, Gurudev; Aberle-Grasse, John M; Havers, Fiona; Montgomery, Joel M; Bawo, Luke; Wang, Susan A; Rosenberg, Ronald

    2014-11-21

    The epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa that began in March 2014 has caused approximately 13,200 suspected, probable, and confirmed cases, including approximately 6,500 in Liberia. About 50% of Liberia's reported cases have been in Montserrado County (population 1.5 million), the most populous county, which contains the capital city, Monrovia. To examine the course of the Ebola epidemic in Montserrado County, data on Ebola treatment unit (ETU) admissions, laboratory testing of patient blood samples, and collection of dead bodies were analyzed. Each of the three data sources indicated consistent declines of 53%-73% following a peak incidence in mid-September. The declines in ETU admissions, percentage of patients with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test results positive for Ebola, and dead bodies are the first evidence of reduction in disease after implementation of multiple prevention and response measures. The possible contributions of these interventions to the decline is not yet fully understood or corroborated. A reduction in cases suggests some progress; however, eliminating Ebola transmission is the critical goal and will require greatly intensified efforts for complete, high-quality surveillance to direct and drive the rapid intervention, tracking, and response efforts that remain essential.

  20. The global decline of cheetah Acinonyx jubatus and what it means for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durant, Sarah M; Mitchell, Nicholas; Groom, Rosemary; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Ipavec, Audrey; Jacobson, Andrew P; Woodroffe, Rosie; Böhm, Monika; Hunter, Luke T B; Becker, Matthew S; Broekhuis, Femke; Bashir, Sultana; Andresen, Leah; Aschenborn, Ortwin; Beddiaf, Mohammed; Belbachir, Farid; Belbachir-Bazi, Amel; Berbash, Ali; Brandao de Matos Machado, Iracelma; Breitenmoser, Christine; Chege, Monica; Cilliers, Deon; Davies-Mostert, Harriet; Dickman, Amy J; Ezekiel, Fabiano; Farhadinia, Mohammad S; Funston, Paul; Henschel, Philipp; Horgan, Jane; de Iongh, Hans H; Jowkar, Houman; Klein, Rebecca; Lindsey, Peter Andrew; Marker, Laurie; Marnewick, Kelly; Melzheimer, Joerg; Merkle, Johnathan; M'soka, Jassiel; Msuha, Maurus; O'Neill, Helen; Parker, Megan; Purchase, Gianetta; Sahailou, Samaila; Saidu, Yohanna; Samna, Abdoulkarim; Schmidt-Küntzel, Anne; Selebatso, Eda; Sogbohossou, Etotépé A; Soultan, Alaaeldin; Stone, Emma; van der Meer, Esther; van Vuuren, Rudie; Wykstra, Mary; Young-Overton, Kim

    2017-01-17

    Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.