WorldWideScience

Sample records for local population declines

  1. AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

  2. Local and global influences on population declines of coastal waders: Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima numbers in the Moray Firth, Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Ron W.; Foster, Simon; Swann, Bob; Etheridge, Brian

    2012-05-01

    population had responded to changes in the local sewage treatment systems, which could affect invertebrate food for Purple Sandpipers, or whether fewer birds chose to winter in Scotland. The Moray Firth population is derived from Norway and possibly Canada, and there is evidence that the Norwegian population was disproportionately affected. The reason for poor recruitment requires further study, and other wader species require examination to test if poor recruitment is a common feature of decline in numbers.

  3. Predicting the effects of copper on local population decline of 2 marine organisms, cobia fish and whiteleg shrimp, based on avoidance response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Cristiano V M; Cedeño-Macías, Luís A; Vera-Vera, Victoria C; Salvatierra, David; Rodríguez, Elizabeth N V; Zambrano, Ufredo; Kuri, Samir

    2016-02-01

    The present study focuses on avoidance response to predict population decline of the marine fish Rachycentron canadum (cobia) and larvae of the estuarine shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei (whiteleg shrimp). Avoidance of approximately 60% was recorded for the cobia fry exposed to 1.0 mg Cu/L, 1.60 mg Cu/L, and 1.80 mg Cu/L. For the shrimp larvae, avoidance was approximately 80% for all Cu concentrations. The population decline of cobia fry was conditioned by avoidance in lower concentrations. However, in higher concentrations mortality begins to play an important role. The displacement toward uncontaminated habitats might determine shrimp population decline. A Cu-contaminated environment can determine the habitat selection of both species and, therefore, their local population decline. © 2015 SETAC.

  4. Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik P. Van Dalen

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available European countries are experiencing population decline and the tacit assumption in most analyses is that the decline may have detrimental welfare effects. In this paper we use a survey among the population in the Netherlands to discover whether population decline is always met with fear. A number of results stand out: population size preferences differ by geographic proximity: at a global level the majority of respondents favors a (global population decline, but closer to home one supports a stationary population. Population decline is clearly not always met with fear: 31 percent would like the population to decline at the national level and they generally perceive decline to be accompanied by immaterial welfare gains (improvement environment as well as material welfare losses (tax increases, economic stagnation. In addition to these driving forces it appears that the attitude towards immigrants is a very strong determinant at all geographical levels: immigrants seem to be a stronger fear factor than population decline.

  5. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  6. Local Recurrence in Women With Stage I Breast Cancer: Declining Rates Over Time in a Large, Population-Based Cohort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canavan, Joycelin, E-mail: canavanjoycelin@gmail.com [Radiation Therapy Program and Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, University of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Truong, Pauline T.; Smith, Sally L. [Radiation Therapy Program and Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, University of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Lu, Linghong; Lesperance, Mary [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Olivotto, Ivo A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tom Baker Cancer Centre, University of Calgary (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate whether local recurrence (LR) risk has changed over time among women with stage I breast cancer treated with breast-conserving therapy. Methods and Materials: Subjects were 5974 women aged ≥50 years diagnosis with pT1N0 breast cancer from 1989 to 2006, treated with breast-conserving surgery and radiation therapy. Clinicopathologic characteristics, treatment, and LR outcomes were compared among 4 cohorts stratified by year of diagnosis: 1989 to 1993 (n=1077), 1994 to 1998 (n=1633), 1999 to 2002 (n=1622), and 2003 to 2006 (n=1642). Multivariable analysis was performed, with year of diagnosis as a continuous variable. Results: Median follow-up time was 8.6 years. Among patients diagnosed in 1989 to 1993, 1994 to 1998, 1999 to 2002, and 2003 to 2006, the proportions of grade 1 tumors increased (16% vs 29% vs 40% vs 39%, respectively, P<.001). Surgical margin clearance rates increased from 82% to 93% to 95% and 88%, respectively (P<.001). Over time, the proportions of unknown estrogen receptor (ER) status decreased (29% vs 10% vs 1.2% vs 0.5%, respectively, P<.001), whereas ER-positive tumors increased (56% vs 77% vs 86% vs 86%, respectively, P<.001). Hormone therapy use increased (23% vs 23% vs 62% vs 73%, respectively, P<.001), and chemotherapy use increased (2% vs 5% vs 10% vs 13%, respectively, P<.001). The 5-year cumulative incidence rates of LR over the 4 time periods were 2.8% vs 1.7% vs 0.9% vs 0.8%, respectively (Gray's test, P<.001). On competing risk multivariable analysis, year of diagnosis was significantly associated with decreased LR (hazard ratio, 0.92 per year, P=.0003). Relative to grade 1 histology, grades 2, 3, and unknown were associated with increased LR. Hormone therapy use was associated with reduced LR. Conclusion: Significant changes in the multimodality management of stage I breast cancer have occurred over the past 2 decades. More favorable-risk tumors were diagnosed, and margin clearance and systemic therapy use

  7. Local Recurrence in Women With Stage I Breast Cancer: Declining Rates Over Time in a Large, Population-Based Cohort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canavan, Joycelin; Truong, Pauline T.; Smith, Sally L.; Lu, Linghong; Lesperance, Mary; Olivotto, Ivo A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate whether local recurrence (LR) risk has changed over time among women with stage I breast cancer treated with breast-conserving therapy. Methods and Materials: Subjects were 5974 women aged ≥50 years diagnosis with pT1N0 breast cancer from 1989 to 2006, treated with breast-conserving surgery and radiation therapy. Clinicopathologic characteristics, treatment, and LR outcomes were compared among 4 cohorts stratified by year of diagnosis: 1989 to 1993 (n=1077), 1994 to 1998 (n=1633), 1999 to 2002 (n=1622), and 2003 to 2006 (n=1642). Multivariable analysis was performed, with year of diagnosis as a continuous variable. Results: Median follow-up time was 8.6 years. Among patients diagnosed in 1989 to 1993, 1994 to 1998, 1999 to 2002, and 2003 to 2006, the proportions of grade 1 tumors increased (16% vs 29% vs 40% vs 39%, respectively, P<.001). Surgical margin clearance rates increased from 82% to 93% to 95% and 88%, respectively (P<.001). Over time, the proportions of unknown estrogen receptor (ER) status decreased (29% vs 10% vs 1.2% vs 0.5%, respectively, P<.001), whereas ER-positive tumors increased (56% vs 77% vs 86% vs 86%, respectively, P<.001). Hormone therapy use increased (23% vs 23% vs 62% vs 73%, respectively, P<.001), and chemotherapy use increased (2% vs 5% vs 10% vs 13%, respectively, P<.001). The 5-year cumulative incidence rates of LR over the 4 time periods were 2.8% vs 1.7% vs 0.9% vs 0.8%, respectively (Gray's test, P<.001). On competing risk multivariable analysis, year of diagnosis was significantly associated with decreased LR (hazard ratio, 0.92 per year, P=.0003). Relative to grade 1 histology, grades 2, 3, and unknown were associated with increased LR. Hormone therapy use was associated with reduced LR. Conclusion: Significant changes in the multimodality management of stage I breast cancer have occurred over the past 2 decades. More favorable-risk tumors were diagnosed, and margin clearance and systemic therapy use

  8. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    OpenAIRE

    Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

    2010-01-01

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined ...

  9. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  10. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading, C J; Luiselli, L M; Akani, G C; Bonnet, X; Amori, G; Ballouard, J M; Filippi, E; Naulleau, G; Pearson, D; Rugiero, L

    2010-12-23

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.

  11. [Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurz, R

    1982-05-01

    The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

  12. Population Genetic Aspects of Pollinator Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Packer

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available We reviewed the theory of conservation genetics, with special emphasis on the influence of haplodiploidy and other aspects of bee biology upon conservation genetic parameters. We then investigated the possibility that pollinator decline can be addressed in this way, using two meta-analytical approaches on genetic data from the Hymenoptera and the Lepidoptera. First, we compared levels of heterozygosity between the orders. As has been found previously, the haplodiploid Hymenoptera had markedly lower levels of genetic variation than the Lepidoptera. Bees had even lower levels, and bumble bees, in particular, often seemed almost monomorphic genetically. However, the statistically confounding effects of phylogeny render detailed interpretation of such data difficult. Second, we investigated patterns of gene flow among populations of these insects. Hymenoptera were far more likely to show genetic effects of population fragmentation than are Lepidoptera, even at similar geographic distances between populations. The reduced effective population sizes resulting from haplodiploidy probably contributed to this result. The proportion of species with low levels of gene flow did not vary among the different taxonomic groups within the Hymenoptera.

  13. Local bumble bee decline linked to recovery of honey bees, drought effects on floral resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Diane M

    2016-10-01

    Time series of abundances are critical for understanding how abiotic factors and species interactions affect population dynamics, but are rarely linked with experiments and also scarce for bee pollinators. This gap is important given concerns about declines in some bee species. I monitored honey bee (Apis mellifera) and bumble bee (Bombus spp.) foragers in coastal California from 1999, when feral A. mellifera populations were low due to Varroa destructor, until 2014. Apis mellifera increased substantially, except between 2006 and 2011, coinciding with declines in managed populations. Increases in A. mellifera strongly correlated with declines in Bombus and reduced diet overlap between them, suggesting resource competition consistent with past experimental results. Lower Bombus numbers also correlated with diminished floral resources. Declines in floral abundances were associated with drought and reduced spring rainfall. These results illustrate how competition with an introduced species may interact with climate to drive local decline of native pollinators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  14. ALIEN SPECIES: THEIR ROLE IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES AND RESTORATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alien species (also referred to as exotic, invasive, introduced, or normative species) have been implicated as causal agents in population declines of many amphibian species. Herein, we evaluate the relative contributions of alien species and other factors in adversely affecting ...

  15. CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL POPULATION DECLINE FOR PRIMARY SCHOOLS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haartsen, Tialda; Van Wissen, Leo

    During the past few years, the Dutch education system has been confronted with a sharp decline in the number of pupils. Especially in rural villages, inhabitants fear for the closure of their local primary school, which is perceived as a very negative development for local village life. This paper

  16. Changes in land use as a possible factor in Mourning Dove population decline in Central Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrand, William D.; Meyers, P.M.; Bissonette, J.A.; Conover, M.R.

    1998-01-01

    Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura) population indices for the western United States have declined significantly since 1966. Based on data collected in 1951-1952, in Fillmore, Utah, we examined whether there had been a local decline in the dove population index since the original data were collected. We then determined whether habitat had been altered, identified which foraging habitats doves preferred, and assessed whether changes in land use could be responsible, in part, for a decline in the local population index. We found that dove population indices declined 72% and 82% from 1952-1992 and 1952-1993, respectively. The most dramatic change in habitat was an 82% decline in land devoted to dry land winter wheat production and a decline in livestock feed pens. Doves foraged primarily in harvested wheat fields, feed pens, and weedy patches. We hypothesize that a decrease in wheat availability during the spring and the consolidation of the livestock industry have contributed to a population decline of Mourning Doves in central Utah.

  17. Pesticides and Population Declines of California Alpine Frogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured ...

  18. Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

    2012-02-01

    Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little

  19. Breeding season food limitation drives population decline of the Little Owl Athene noctua in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorup, Kasper; Sunde, Peter; Jacobsen, Lars B.

    2010-01-01

    landscape, has declined over most of northwestern Europe, including Denmark. We investigated the likely reasons for the population decline in Denmark by identifying patterns of local extinction (scale, 5 x 5 km2) and estimating demographic parameters affecting local survival, focusing on changes over time...

  20. Human Population Decline in North America during the Younger Dryas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. G.; Goodyear, A. C.; Stafford, T. W., Jr.; Kennett, J.; West, A.

    2009-12-01

    There is ongoing debate about a possible human population decline or contraction at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) at 12.9 ka. We used two methods to test whether the YD affected human population levels: (1) frequency analyses of Paleoindian projectile points, and (2) summed probability analyses of radiocarbon (14C) dates. The results suggest that a significant decline or reorganization of human populations occurred at 12.9 ka, continued through the initial centuries of the YD chronozone, then rebounded by the end of the YD. FREQUENCY ANALYSES: This method employed projectile point data from the Paleoindian Database of the Americas (PIDBA, http://pidba.utk.edu). We tallied diagnostic projectile points and obtained larger totals for Clovis points than for immediately post-Clovis points, which share an instrument-assisted fluting technique, typically using pressure or indirect percussion. Gainey, Vail, Debert, Redstone, and Cumberland point-styles utilized this method and are comparable to the Folsom style. For the SE U.S., the ratio of Clovis points (n=1993) to post-Clovis points (n=947) reveals a point decline of 52%. For the Great Plains, a comparison of Clovis and fluted points (n=4020) to Folsom points (n=2527) shows a point decline of 37%, which may translate into a population contraction of similar magnitude. In addition, eight major Clovis lithic quarry sites in the SE U.S. exhibit little to no evidence for immediate post-Clovis occupations, implying a major population decline. SUMMED PROBABILITIES: This method involved calibrating relevant 14C dates and combining the probabilities, after which major peaks and troughs in the trends are assumed to reflect changes in human demographics. Using 14C dates from Buchanan et al. (2008), we analyzed multiple regions, including the Southeast and Great Plains. Contrary to Buchanan et al., we found an abrupt, statistically significant decline at 12.9 ka, followed 200 to 900 years later by a rebound in the number of

  1. Climate change and pollution speed declines in zebrafish populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, A Ross; Owen, Stewart F; Peters, James; Zhang, Yong; Soffker, Marta; Paull, Gregory C; Hosken, David J; Wahab, M Abdul; Tyler, Charles R

    2015-03-17

    Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are potent environmental contaminants, and their effects on wildlife populations could be exacerbated by climate change, especially in species with environmental sex determination. Endangered species may be particularly at risk because inbreeding depression and stochastic fluctuations in male and female numbers are often observed in the small populations that typify these taxa. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of water temperature and EDC exposure on sexual development and population viability of inbred and outbred zebrafish (Danio rerio). Water temperatures adopted were 28 °C (current ambient mean spawning temperature) and 33 °C (projected for the year 2100). The EDC selected was clotrimazole (at 2 μg/L and 10 μg/L), a widely used antifungal chemical that inhibits a key steroidogenic enzyme [cytochrome P450(CYP19) aromatase] required for estrogen synthesis in vertebrates. Elevated water temperature and clotrimazole exposure independently induced male-skewed sex ratios, and the effects of clotrimazole were greater at the higher temperature. Male sex ratio skews also occurred for the lower clotrimazole exposure concentration at the higher water temperature in inbred fish but not in outbred fish. Population viability analysis showed that population growth rates declined sharply in response to male skews and declines for inbred populations occurred at lower male skews than for outbred populations. These results indicate that elevated temperature associated with climate change can amplify the effects of EDCs and these effects are likely to be most acute in small, inbred populations exhibiting environmental sex determination and/or differentiation.

  2. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  3. Addressing wild turkey population declines using structured decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.; Schiavone, Michael V.; Swift, Bryan L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Siemer, William F.; Decker, Daniel J.

    2017-01-01

    We present a case study from New York, USA, of the use of structured decision making (SDM) to identify fall turkey harvest regulations that best meet stakeholder objectives, in light of recent apparent declines in abundance of wild turkeys in the northeastern United States. We used the SDM framework to incorporate the multiple objectives associated with turkey hunting, stakeholder desires, and region-specific ecological and environmental factors that could influence fall harvest. We identified a set of 4 fall harvest regulations, composed of different season lengths and bag limits, and evaluated their relative achievement of the objectives. We used a stochastic turkey population model, statistical modeling, and expert elicitation to evaluate the consequences of each harvest regulation on each of the objectives. We conducted a statewide mail survey of fall turkey hunters in New York to gather the necessary information to evaluate tradeoffs among multiple objectives associated with hunter satisfaction. The optimal fall harvest regulation was a 2-week season and allowed for the harvest of 1 bird/hunter. This regulation was the most conservative of those evaluated, reflecting the concerns about recent declines in turkey abundance among agency wildlife biologists and the hunting public. Depending on the region of the state, the 2-week, 1-bird regulation was predicted to result in 7–32% more turkeys on the landscape after 5 years. The SDM process provided a transparent framework for setting fall turkey harvest regulations and reduced potential stakeholder conflict by explicitly taking the multiple objectives of different stakeholder groups into account.

  4. FACTORS IMPLICATED IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES IN THE UNITED STATES

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study identified the factors responsible for the decline of native amphibians in the U.S. The type of land use, the introduction of exotic animal species, and chemical contamination were identified as the most likely causes of decline.

  5. Family planning, population policy and declining birth rates in Yugoslavia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malacic, J

    1989-01-01

    Although Yugoslavia has below-replacement fertility (a net reproduction rate in 1986 of 0.92), there are vast regional differentials. In the less developed autonomous province of Kosovo, for example, the population has doubled in the past 30 years. By region, the net reproduction rate ranges from a low of 0.83 in Croatia to a high of 1.80 in Kosovo. Until the late 1970s, when pronatalism and centralized economic planning had weakened in influence, there was an avoidance of demographic planning and policy. In 1975, the Federal Assembly issued a document on the country's demographic patterns and goals and called on republics and autonomous provinces to adapt the document to local situations--a step that was not taken. By the 1980s, the deteriorating political, economic, and demographic situation in regions with high fertility forced more explicit attention to the formulation of a national population policy. The 1989 Resolution on Population Development Policy and Family Planning sets the goal of replacement- level fertility for both high and low fertility regions and calls for an integrated approach to population issues and socioeconomic development. Decentralization, however, has represented a major obstacle to the execution of federal policy at the republic and lower local levels. While this is a chronic problem that must be addressed on the macro level, some progress could be achieved in problematic regions such as Kosovo through educational campaigns aimed at convincing individual couples of the advantages of family size of 2-3 children.

  6. Comparative metatranscriptomics reveals decline of a neustonic planktonic population

    KAUST Repository

    Mojib, Nazia; Thimma, Manjula; Kumaran, M.; Sougrat, Rachid; Irigoien, Xabier

    2016-01-01

    The neuston layer in tropical seas provides a good model to study the effects of increased levels of different stressors (e.g., temperature, ultraviolet radiation and Trichodesmium blooms). Here, we use a comparative in situ metatranscriptomics approach to reveal the functional genomic composition of metabolically active neustonic mesozooplankton community in response to the summer conditions in the Red Sea. The neustonic population exhibited changes in composition and abundance with a significant decline in copepods and appendicularia in July, when Trichodesmium cells were more abundant along with high temperatures and UV-B radiation. Nearly 23,000 genes were differentially expressed at the community level when the metatranscriptomes of the neustonic zooplankton were compared in April, July, and October. On a wider Phylum level, the genes related to oxidative phosphorylation, carbon, nucleotides, amino acids, and lipids were significantly overrepresented in both arthropods and chordates in April and October. On organism level for copepods, expression of genes responsive to oxidative stress, defense against bacteria, immune response, and virus reproduction were increased along with the observed increased appearance of copepod carcasses in the samples collected during July. The differences in expression correspond either to secondary effects of the Trichodesmium bloom or more likely to the increased UV-B radiation in July. Given the dearth of information on the zooplankton gene expression in response to environmental stimuli, our study provides the first transcriptome landscape of the mesozooplankton community during a period of increased mortality of the copepod and appendicularia population.

  7. Comparative metatranscriptomics reveals decline of a neustonic planktonic population

    KAUST Repository

    Mojib, Nazia

    2016-10-20

    The neuston layer in tropical seas provides a good model to study the effects of increased levels of different stressors (e.g., temperature, ultraviolet radiation and Trichodesmium blooms). Here, we use a comparative in situ metatranscriptomics approach to reveal the functional genomic composition of metabolically active neustonic mesozooplankton community in response to the summer conditions in the Red Sea. The neustonic population exhibited changes in composition and abundance with a significant decline in copepods and appendicularia in July, when Trichodesmium cells were more abundant along with high temperatures and UV-B radiation. Nearly 23,000 genes were differentially expressed at the community level when the metatranscriptomes of the neustonic zooplankton were compared in April, July, and October. On a wider Phylum level, the genes related to oxidative phosphorylation, carbon, nucleotides, amino acids, and lipids were significantly overrepresented in both arthropods and chordates in April and October. On organism level for copepods, expression of genes responsive to oxidative stress, defense against bacteria, immune response, and virus reproduction were increased along with the observed increased appearance of copepod carcasses in the samples collected during July. The differences in expression correspond either to secondary effects of the Trichodesmium bloom or more likely to the increased UV-B radiation in July. Given the dearth of information on the zooplankton gene expression in response to environmental stimuli, our study provides the first transcriptome landscape of the mesozooplankton community during a period of increased mortality of the copepod and appendicularia population.

  8. UV-B Radiation Contributes to Amphibian Population Declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew

    2007-05-01

    UV-B (280-315 nm) radiation is the most significant biologically damaging radiation at the terrestrial surface. At the organismal level, UV-B radiation can slow growth rates, cause immune dysfunction and result in sublethal damage. UV-B radiation can lead to mutations and cell death. Over evolutionary time, UV radiation has been an important stressor on living organisms. Natural events, including impacts from comets and asteroids, volcanic activity, supernova explosions and solar flares, can cause large-scale ozone depletion with accompanying increases in UV radiation. However, these natural events are transient. Moreover, the amount of ozone damage due to natural events depends upon a number of variables, including the magnitude of the event. This is different from modern-day human-induced production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other chemicals that deplete stratospheric ozone continuously, resulting in long-term increases in UV-B radiation at the surface of the earth. We will briefly review the effects of UV-B exposure in one group of aquatic organisms_amphibians. UV-B has been implicated as a possible factor contributing to global declines and range reductions in amphibian populations.

  9. Population demographics of two local South Carolina mourning dove populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, D.P.; Otis, D.L.

    1998-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) call-count index had a significant (P 2,300 doves and examined >6,000 individuals during harvest bag checks. An age-specific band recovery model with time- and area-specific recovery rates, and constant survival rates, was chosen for estimation via Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), likelihood ratio, and goodness-of-fit criteria. After-hatching-year (AHY) annual survival rate was 0.359 (SE = 0.056), and hatching-year (HY) annual survival rate was 0.118 (SE = 0.042). Average estimated recruitment per adult female into the prehunting season population was 3.40 (SE = 1.25) and 2.32 (SE = 0.46) for the 2 study areas. Our movement data support earlier hypotheses of nonmigratory breeding and harvested populations in South Carolina. Low survival rates and estimated population growth rate in the study areas may be representative only of small-scale areas that are heavily managed for dove hunting. Source-sink theory was used to develop a model of region-wide populations that is composed of source areas with positive growth rates and sink areas of declining growth. We suggest management of mourning doves in the Southeast might benefit from improved understanding of local population dynamics, as opposed to regional-scale population demographics.

  10. POPULATION DECLINES OF THE PUERTO RICAN VIREO IN GUANICA FOREST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    JOHN FAABORG; KATE M. DUGGER; WAYNE J. ARENDT; BETHANY L. WOODWORTH; MICHAEL E. BALTZ

    1997-01-01

    Abundance of the Puerto Rican Vireo (Vireo Zutimeri) in Guanica Forest, Puerto Rico, has declined gradually over the period 1973-1996 as determined by constant effort mist netting. Concurrent studies of breeding vireos show low nesting success, primarily due to parasitism by Shiny Cowbirds (Molothrus bonariensis). This decline may reflect the rather recent entry of the...

  11. Declines revisited: Long-term recovery and spatial population dynamics oftailed frog larvae after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossack, Blake R.; Honeycutt, Richard

    2017-01-01

    Drought has fueled an increased frequency and severity of large wildfires in many ecosystems. Despite an increase in research on wildfire effects on vertebrates, the vast majority of it has focused on short-term (effects and there is still little information on the time scale of population recovery for species that decline in abundance after fire. In 2003, a large wildfire in Montana (USA) burned the watersheds of four of eight streams that we sampled for larval Rocky Mountain tailed frogs (Ascaphus montanus) in 2001. Surveys during 2004–2005 revealed reduced abundance of larvae in burned streams relative to unburned streams, with greater declines associated with increased fire extent. Rocky Mountain tailed frogs have low vagility and have several unusual life-history traits that could slow population recovery, including an extended larval period (4 years), delayed sexual maturity (6–8 years), and low fecundity (negative effects of burn extent on larval abundance weakened> 58% within 12 years after the fire. We also found moderate synchrony among populations in unburned streams and negative spatial autocorrelation among populations in burned streams. We suspect negative spatial autocorrelation among spatially-clustered burned streams reflected increased post-fire patchiness in resources and different rates of local recovery. Our results add to a growing body of work that suggests populations in intact ecosystems tend to be resilient to habitat changes caused by wildfire. Our results also provide important insights into recovery times of populations that have been negatively affected by severe wildfire.

  12. Population and colony-level determinants of tertiary sex ratio in the declining barn swallow.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Saino

    Full Text Available Sex ratio of adults (tertiary sex ratio, TSR is a major feature of animal populations with consequences for their behaviour, genetic structure and viability. Spatial and temporal variation in TSR occurs within species but the mechanisms behind it are poorly understood. In this long-term study of a declining population of a socially monogamous, colonial, migratory bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica, we first analyzed population-level variation in TSR ( =  proportion of males of yearlings at sexual maturation in relation to ecological conditions as gauged by annual survival rate of adults. TSR was male-biased both among yearlings and older individuals, but male bias of yearlings was more pronounced after years with larger decline in adult survival. Thus, male offspring were less susceptible to the adverse ecological conditions that cause increased mortality. Dispersal and settling site decisions can have major consequences on fitness via the effects of local TSR on mating and sperm competition. Breeding barn swallows are highly philopatric while natal dispersal is high and, together with mortality, is the main determinant of colony TSR. We thus also investigated the mechanisms of breeding colony choice by yearlings and found that TSR of new-settlers in a given colony and year was negatively predicted by TSR of returning, early arriving older individuals in that year, but not by overall TSR at the colony in the previous year. This suggests that in our male-biased population new-settler males respond to local TSR upon arrival to choose the sites with larger breeding opportunities. Hence, variation in ecological conditions as reflected by adult survival can shift the TSR of individuals recruiting into a local population, with potentially various demographic consequences. However, breeding site choice based on TSR tends to homogenize TSR at a population level likely by facilitating settling of dispersing males in colonies with less male

  13. Local extirpations and regional declines of endemic upper beach invertebrates in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, D. M.; Dugan, J. E.; Schooler, N. K.; Viola, S. M.

    2014-10-01

    Along the world's highly valued and populous coastlines, the upper intertidal zones of sandy beach ecosystems and the biodiversity that these zones support are increasingly threatened by impacts of human activities, coastal development, erosion, and climate change. The upper zones of beaches typically support invertebrates with restricted distributions and dispersal, making them particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesized that disproportionate loss or degradation of these zones in the last century has resulted in declines of upper shore macroinvertebrates in southern California. We identified a suite of potentially vulnerable endemic upper beach invertebrates with direct development, low dispersal and late reproduction. Based on the availability of printed sources and museum specimens, we investigated historical changes in distribution and abundance of two intertidal isopod species (Tylos punctatus, Alloniscus perconvexus) in southern California. Populations of these isopods have been extirpated at numerous historically occupied sites: T. punctatus from 16 sites (57% decrease), and A. perconvexus from 14 sites (64% decrease). During the same period, we found evidence of only five colonization events. In addition, the northern range limit of the southern species, T. punctatus, moved south by 31 km (8% of range on California mainland) since 1971. Abundances of T. punctatus have declined on the mainland coast; only three recently sampled populations had abundances >7000 individuals m-1. For A. perconvexus populations, abundances >100 individuals m-1 now appear to be limited to the northern part of the study area. Our results show that numerous local extirpations of isopod populations have resulted in regional declines and in greatly reduced population connectivity in several major littoral cells of southern California. Two of the six major littoral cells (Santa Barbara and Zuma) in the area currently support 74% of the remaining isopod

  14. Reliability of genetic bottleneck tests for detecting recent population declines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peery, M. Zachariah; Kirby, Rebecca; Reid, Brendan N.; Stoelting, Ricka; Doucet-Beer, Elena; Robinson, Stacie; Vasquez-Carrillo, Catalina; Pauli, Jonathan N.; Palsboll, Per J.

    The identification of population bottlenecks is critical in conservation because populations that have experienced significant reductions in abundance are subject to a variety of genetic and demographic processes that can hasten extinction. Genetic bottleneck tests constitute an appealing and

  15. Nigeria's Population Policy and Future Fertility Decline | Mba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, promulgated its first explicit population policy in 1988, in response to the soaring population growth rate that impedes developmental efforts. The policy document has stipulated a number of quantitative demographic targets. Paramount ...

  16. The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Marcin

    1974-01-01

    Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

  17. The Role of Responses to Experiences of Rural Population Decline in the Social Capital of Families

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elshof, Hans; Bailey, Ajay

    2015-01-01

    Population decline in rural areas has an impact on rural villages. This research investigates to what extent families with children in rural villages experience consequences of population decline, in which ways they respond to these experiences, and how that plays a role in their individual social

  18. Activity patterns and time budgets of the declining sea otter population at Amchitka Island, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelatt, Thomas S.; Siniff, Donald B.; Estes, James A.

    2002-01-01

    Time budgets of predators may reflect population status if time spent foraging varies with local prey abun- dance. We assumed that the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population at Amchitka Island, Alaska, USA, had been at equilibrium since the early 1960s and collected time budgets of otters to be used to represent future conditions of currently expanding sea otter populations. We used radiotelemetry to monitor activity-time budgets of otters from August 1992 to March 1994. Sea otter activity was directly linked to sex, age, weather condition, season, and time of day. Sea otters differed in percent time foraging among cohorts but not within cohorts. Percent time foraging ranged from 21% for females with very young (≤ 3weeks of age) dependent pups to 52% for females with old (≥10 weeks of age) pups. Otters foraged more and hauled out more as local sea conditions worsened. Adult males spent less time foraging during winter and spring, consistent with seasonal changes in prey selection. Time spent for- aging was similar to that reported for otters in California and an established population in Prince William Sound, Alaska, but greater than that of otters in recently established populations in Oregon and Alaska. Despite current evidence indicating that the population was in decline during our study, we were unable to recognize this change using time budgets. Our results illustrate the importance of stratifying analyses of activity patterns by age and sex cohorts and the complexity inherent in comparisons of behavioral data between different populations relying on distinct prey bases.

  19. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    Biodiversity; global change; globalization; population and land use; sustainable ... School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110 067, India .... Ghat region to meet international market demands is an example ...

  20. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    Biodiversity; global change; globalization; population and land use; sustainable landscape management; traditional ecological management ... biodiversity on which they are dependant for their livelihood, there is an urgent need to explore additional pathways for ...... the upland central region of Mexico, as a response to.

  1. Is Declining malaria vector population in Africa a result of intervention Measures or sampling tools inefficiency?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliningaya Kweka

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent entomological surveys have shown a declining trend of malaria vector population in sub-Saharan Africa and the observation have beenassociated with the scale-up and intensive use of malaria intervention measures such as insecticides treated nets and insecticide residual sprays.However, little is known on the contribution of the mosquito sampling tools inefficiency on the declining trends of malaria vector population. Inthis commentary paper, we explore the possibility of contribution of mosquito sampling tools’ inefficiency to the observed declining trends ofmalaria vector population in Africa.

  2. Has contemporary climate change played a role in population declines of the lizard Ctenophorus decresii from semi-arid Australia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Samantha; Stuart-Fox, Devi; Kearney, Michael R

    2015-12-01

    Whilst contemporary climatic changes are small in magnitude compared to those predicted for the coming decades, they have already been linked to species range shifts and local extinctions. Elucidating the drivers behind species' responses to contemporary climate change will better inform management strategies for vulnerable and pest species alike. A recent proposal to explain worldwide local extinctions in lizards is that increasing maximum temperatures have constrained lizard activity time in the breeding season beyond extinction thresholds. Here we document a significant population decline and potential local extinction at the warm (northern) range margin of the tawny dragon, Ctenophorus decresii, a rock-dwelling lizard from the Flinders Ranges in semi-arid Australia. We developed and tested a biophysical model of tawny dragon thermoregulatory behaviour and drove the model with daily weather data for the period 1990-2009 across the Flinders Ranges. Our results indicate that potential annual activity time has likely increased over this period throughout the historic range, with within-season declines only in the summer months at the northern range limit. However, populations that have declined since 2000 have also likely experienced higher active body temperatures and more stringent retreat-site requirements (deeper crevices) than have regions where the species remains common, during a period of declining rainfall. Our laboratory estimates of thermal preference in this species were insensitive to altered nutritional and hydric state. Thus it is possible that recent population declines are linked to desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall. Our study illustrates that simple indices of the impact of climate warming on animals, such as activity restriction, may in fact reflect a variety of potential mechanisms whose ultimate outcome will be contingent on other factors such as water and shelter availability. Copyright © 2014

  3. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  4. Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution....... We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs...... at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient...

  5. Identifying causes for population decline of the brown hare in agricultural landscapes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Trine-Lee Wincentz

    In recent decades the brown hare (Lepus europaeus) population in Denmark has undergone a substantial decline, but proximate causes are unknown and little is known about actual densities. In this thesis, hare populations are investigated with respect to age composition and reproductive parameters...... proportions in game bags have dropped significantly since the 1950ies. Simple matrix population models with variable juvenile recruitment predict the similar population growth rates as actually observed in the annual bag records. The model substantiates the supposition that declines in the Danish hare...

  6. Trapped in the extinction vortex? Strong genetic effects in a declining vertebrate population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larsson Mikael

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity are expected to increase the extinction risk of small populations, but detailed tests in natural populations are scarce. We combine long-term population and fitness data with those from two types of molecular markers to examine the role of genetic effects in a declining metapopulation of southern dunlins Calidris alpina schinzii, an endangered shorebird. Results The decline is associated with increased pairings between related individuals, including close inbreeding (as revealed by both field observations of parentage and molecular markers. Furthermore, reduced genetic diversity seems to affect individual fitness at several life stages. Higher genetic similarity between mates correlates negatively with the pair's hatching success. Moreover, offspring produced by related parents are more homozygous and suffer from increased mortality during embryonic development and possibly also after hatching. Conclusions Our results demonstrate strong genetic effects in a rapidly declining population, emphasizing the importance of genetic factors for the persistence of small populations.

  7. Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

    2009-09-01

    Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

  8. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas

    OpenAIRE

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Macdonald, David W.; Packer, Craig

    2015-01-01

    At a regional scale, lion populations in West, Central, and East Africa are likely to suffer a projected 50% decline over the next two decades, whereas lion populations are only increasing in southern Africa. Many lion populations are either now gone or expected to disappear within the next few decades to the extent that the intensively managed populations in southern Africa may soon supersede the iconic savannah landscapes in East Africa as the most successful sites for lion conservation. Th...

  9. Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Steven M; Alvarado, Gilbert; Abarca, Juan; Zumbado, Hector; Zuñiga, Ibrahim; Wainwright, Mark; Kerby, Jacob

    2017-09-20

    Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

  10. Decline of the Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) population in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, 2001-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaime L. Stephens; Sarah M. Rockwell; C. John Ralph; John D Alexander

    2015-01-01

    We monitored the Black Tern (Childonias niger) population at Agency and Upper Klamath Lakes, in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, from 2001–2010. We estimated that the population of adult Black Terns declined at these 2 joined waterbodies by 8.4% annually. In contrast, our analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data for the Bird...

  11. Growing hickories (Carya spp.) for roost trees: A method to support conservation of declining bat populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tara Luna; Daniel L. Lindner; R. Kasten Dumroese

    2014-01-01

    Bats (Vespertilionidae and Phyllostomidae) are a critically important component of North American ecosystems. These insectivorous mammals provide largely unrecognized ecosystem services to agriculture and forest health and sustain bat-dependent native plant populations. The decline of North American bat populations reflects the recent emergence of the fungal disease...

  12. Projected risk of population declines for native fish species in the Upper Mississippi River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, S.M.; Boma, P.; Thogmartin, W.E.

    2015-01-01

    Conservationists are in need of objective metrics for prioritizing the management of habitats. For individual species, the threat of extinction is often used to prioritize what species are in need of conservation action. Using long-term monitoring data, we applied a Bayesian diffusion approximation to estimate quasi-extinction risk for 54 native fish species within six commercial navigation reaches along a 1350-km gradient of the upper Mississippi River system. We found a strong negative linear relationship between quasi-extinction risk and distance upstream. For some species, quasi-extinction estimates ranged from nearly zero in some reaches to one in others, suggesting substantial variability in threats facing individual river reaches. We found no evidence that species traits affected quasi-extinction risk across the entire system. Our results indicate that fishes within the upper Mississippi River system face localized threats that vary across river impact gradients. This suggests that conservation actions should be focused on local habitat scales but should also consider the additive effects on downstream conditions. We also emphasize the need for identification of proximate mechanisms behind observed and predicted population declines, as conservation actions will require mitigation of such mechanisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  13. Glutathione S-transferase genotypes modify lung function decline in the general population: SAPALDIA cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ackermann-Liebrich Ursula

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the environmental and genetic risk factors of accelerated lung function decline in the general population is a first step in a prevention strategy against the worldwide increasing respiratory pathology of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. Deficiency in antioxidative and detoxifying Glutathione S-transferase (GST gene has been associated with poorer lung function in children, smokers and patients with respiratory diseases. In the present study, we assessed whether low activity variants in GST genes are also associated with accelerated lung function decline in the general adult population. Methods We examined with multiple regression analysis the association of polymorphisms in GSTM1, GSTT1 and GSTP1 genes with annual decline in FEV1, FVC, and FEF25–75 during 11 years of follow-up in 4686 subjects of the prospective SAPALDIA cohort representative of the Swiss general population. Effect modification by smoking, gender, bronchial hyperresponisveness and age was studied. Results The associations of GST genotypes with FEV1, FVC, and FEF25–75 were comparable in direction, but most consistent for FEV1. GSTT1 homozygous gene deletion alone or in combination with GSTM1 homozygous gene deletion was associated with excess decline in FEV1 in men, but not women, irrespective of smoking status. The additional mean annual decline in FEV1 in men with GSTT1 and concurrent GSTM1 gene deletion was -8.3 ml/yr (95% confidence interval: -12.6 to -3.9 relative to men without these gene deletions. The GSTT1 effect on the FEV1 decline comparable to the observed difference in FEV1 decline between never and persistent smoking men. Effect modification by gender was statistically significant. Conclusion Our results suggest that genetic GSTT1 deficiency is a prevalent and strong determinant of accelerated lung function decline in the male general population.

  14. Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

    2018-04-01

    The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  15. A Demographic Model to Evaluate Population Declines in the Endangered Streaked Horned Lark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alaine F. Camfield

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The Streaked Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris strigata is listed as endangered by the State of Washington, USA and by Canada under the Species at Risk Act and is also classified as a federal candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act in the USA. A substantial portion of Streaked Horned Lark habitat has been lost or degraded, and range contraction has occurred in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We estimate the vital rates (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival and population growth rate (λ for Streaked Horned Larks breeding in Washington, USA and conduct a Life-Stage Simulation Analysis (LSA to evaluate which vital rate has the greatest influence on λ. We simulated changes in the three vital rates to examine how much they would need to be adjusted either independently or in concert to achieve a stable Streaked Horned Lark population (λ = 1. We also evaluated which fecundity component (the number of fledglings per egg laid or renesting interval had the greatest impact on λ. The estimate of population growth suggests that Streaked Horned Larks in Washington are declining rapidly (λ = 0.62 ± 0.10 and that local breeding sites are not sustainable without immigration. The LSA results indicate that adult survival had the greatest influence on λ, followed by juvenile survival and fecundity. However, increases in vital rates led to λ = 1 only when adult survival was raised from 0.47 to 0.85, juvenile survival from 0.17 to 0.58, and fecundity from 0.91 to 3.09. Increases in breeding success and decreases in the renesting interval influenced λ similarly; however, λ did not reach 1 even when breeding success was raised to 100% or renesting intervals were reduced to 1 day. Only when all three vital rates were increased simultaneously did λ approach 1 without requiring highly unrealistic increases in each vital rate. We conclude that conservation activities need to target all or multiple vital rates to be successful. The

  16. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  17. Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Anderson, Kurt E; Regan, Tracey J; Regan, Helen M

    2018-01-22

    The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age-structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates

  18. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W; Packer, Craig

    2015-12-01

    We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded ∼ 500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.

  19. Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Souchay

    Full Text Available Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960-2010 of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY and older birds (after first-year; AFY originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity. Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions.

  20. Subwavelength atom localization via coherent population trapping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agarwal, G S; Kapale, K T

    2006-01-01

    We present an atom localization scheme based on coherent population trapping. We consider atomic transitions in a Lambda configuration where the control field is a standing-wave field. The probe field and the control field produce coherence between the two ground states and prepare the atom in a pure state. We show that the population in one of the ground states has the same fringe pattern as produced by a Fabry-Perot interferometer and thus measurement of this population would localize the atom. Interestingly enough the role of the cavity finesse is played by the ratio of the intensities of the pump and probe. This is in fact the reason for obtaining extreme subwavelength localization

  1. Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Veblen, Thomas T; Smith, Jeremy M.; Kueppers, Lara M.

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers.Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

  2. Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

    2004-01-01

    Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

  3. Population recovery following decline in an endangered stream-breeding frog (Mixophyes fleayi from subtropical Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Alan Newell

    Full Text Available Amphibians have undergone dramatic declines and extinctions worldwide. Prominent among these have been the stream-breeding frogs in the rainforests of eastern Australia. The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd has been postulated as the primary cause of these declines. We conducted a capture-mark-recapture study over a 7-year period on the endangered Fleay's barred frog (Mixophyes fleayi at two independent streams (30 km apart in order to assess the stability of these populations. This species had undergone a severe decline across its narrow geographic range. Mark-recapture modelling showed that the number of individuals increased 3-10 fold along stream transects over this period. Frog detection probabilities were frequently above 50% but declined as the populations increased. Adult survival was important to overall population persistence in light of low recruitment events, suggesting that longevity may be a key factor in this recovery. One male and female were present in the capture record for >6 years. This study provides an unambiguous example of population recovery in the presence of Bd.

  4. Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines

    OpenAIRE

    Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Dirzo, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    The strong focus on species extinctions, a critical aspect of the contemporary pulse of biological extinction, leads to a common misimpression that Earth’s biota is not immediately threatened, just slowly entering an episode of major biodiversity loss. This view overlooks the current trends of population declines and extinctions. Using a sample of 27,600 terrestrial vertebrate species, and a more detailed analysis of 177 mammal species, we show the extremely high degree of population decay in...

  5. Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melia T DeVivo

    Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus, Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni, and moose (Alces alces shirasi in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ. Mule deer were captured from 2010-2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

  6. Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Oberhauser, Karen; Drum, Ryan G.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Altizer, Sonia; Taylor, Orley R.; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Darius J.; Semmens, Brice X.; Erickson, Richard A.; Libby, Kaitlin; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

    2017-01-01

    The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

  7. Population decline in the Delta caribou herd with reference to other Alaskan herds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Valkenburg et al.

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available After growing continuously for nearly 15 years, the Delta caribou herd began to decline in 1989. Most other Interior Alaskan herds also began declining. In the Delta herd, and in other herds, the declines were caused primarily by high summer mortality of calves and increased natural mortality of adult females. Other minor causes included increased winter mortality of calves, and reduced parturition rates of 3-year-old and older females. The decline in the Delta herd also coincided with increased wolf (Canis lupus numbers, winters with deeper than normal snow, and warm summers. Mean body weight of annual samples of 10-month-old female calves was consistently low during the decline. Except in some of the smallest Interior Alaskan herds, we conclude that evidence for population regulation in Alaskan caribou is weak, and that herds are likely to fluctuate within a wide range of densities due to complex interactions of predation and weather. Unless wolf numbers are influenced by man, the size of a caribou herd in a given year is likely to be largely a function of its size during the previous population low and the number of years of favorable weather in the interim.

  8. Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Dirzo, Rodolfo

    2017-07-25

    The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth's sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high-even in "species of low concern." In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a "biological annihilation" to highlight the current magnitude of Earth's ongoing sixth major extinction event.

  9. Achieving population-level violence declines: implications of the international crime drop for prevention programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisner, Manuel; Nivette, Amy; Murray, Aja Louise; Krisch, Maria

    2016-09-01

    The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations for the period 2016-2030 aim to achieve a substantial reduction of interpersonal violence. An increasing body of evidence of what works, emerging from randomized controlled trials, can inform public health policy decisions. However, there is very limited evidence on the kinds of mechanisms that lead to sustained declines in interpersonal violence at the population level. We discuss the implications of what is known about recent major declines in violence to guide violence-reduction policies.

  10. Population genetics models of local ancestry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravel, Simon

    2012-06-01

    Migrations have played an important role in shaping the genetic diversity of human populations. Understanding genomic data thus requires careful modeling of historical gene flow. Here we consider the effect of relatively recent population structure and gene flow and interpret genomes of individuals that have ancestry from multiple source populations as mosaics of segments originating from each population. This article describes general and tractable models for local ancestry patterns with a focus on the length distribution of continuous ancestry tracts and the variance in total ancestry proportions among individuals. The models offer improved agreement with Wright-Fisher simulation data when compared to the state-of-the art and can be used to infer time-dependent migration rates from multiple populations. Considering HapMap African-American (ASW) data, we find that a model with two distinct phases of "European" gene flow significantly improves the modeling of both tract lengths and ancestry variances.

  11. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

    2015-04-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  12. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  13. Life history, population viability, and the potential for local adaptation in isolated trout populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.J. Carim

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Habitat loss and fragmentation have caused population decline across taxa through impacts on life history diversity, dispersal patterns, and gene flow. Yet, intentional isolation of native fish populations is a frequently used management strategy to protect against negative interactions with invasive fish species. We evaluated the population viability and genetic diversity of 12 isolated populations of Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi located on the Flathead Indian Reservation in Montana, USA. Length-structured integral projection models (IPMs were used to project population growth rate (lambda and its sensitivity to underlying vital rates and parameters. We examined relationships between lambda, genetic diversity, and habitat size and quality. Lambda ranged from 0.68 to 1.1 with 10 of 12 populations projected to be in decline. A sensitivity analysis of lambda with respect to projection matrix elements indicated that lambda was generally sensitive to changes in early life history stages (survival/growth, but patterns differed among populations. Another sensitivity analysis with respect to underlying model parameters showed highly consistent pattern across populations, with lambda being most sensitive to the slope of probability of maturity (estimated from published literature, generally followed by adult survival, and the slope of somatic growth rate (directly measured from each population. Lambda was not correlated with genetic diversity. For populations residing in small isolated streams (≤5 km of occupied habitat, lambda significantly increased with base flow discharge (r2=0.50, p<0.02. Our results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation for persistence of small, isolated populations. Specifically we saw evidence for higher probability of maturity at smaller sizes in the smallest, coldest isolated systems, increasing probability of persistence for these populations. Climate change threatens to further fragment populations of

  14. Exposure of harbour seals Phoca vitulina to Brucella in declining populations across Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kershaw, Joanna L; Stubberfield, Emma J; Foster, Geoffrey; Brownlow, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa J; Perrett, Lorraine L

    2017-09-20

    Since 2000 there has been a major decline in the abundance of Scottish harbour seals Phoca vitulina. The causes of the decline remain uncertain. The aim of this study was to establish the extent to which the seals in the regions of greatest decline have been exposed to Brucella, a bacterial pathogen that causes reproductive failure in terrestrial mammalian hosts. Tissues from dead seals collected between 1992 and 2013 were cultured for Brucella (n = 150). Serum samples collected from live capture-released seals (n = 343) between 1997 and 2012 were tested for Brucella antibodies using the Rose Bengal plate agglutination test (RBT) and a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA). In total, 16% of seals cultured had Brucella isolated from one or more tissues, but there were no pathological signs of infection. The cELISA results were more sensitive than the RBT results, showing that overall 25.4% of seals were seropositive, with the highest seroprevalence in juveniles. As there was no evidence of either a higher seroprevalence or higher circulating antibody levels in seropositive animals in the areas with the greatest declines, it was concluded that Brucella infection is likely not a major contributing factor to recent declines. However, the consistently high proportion of seals exposed to Brucella indicates possible endemicity in these populations, likely due to B. pinnipedialis, which has demonstrated a preference for pinniped hosts. Importantly, given the close proximity between seals, humans and livestock in many areas, there is the potential for cross-species infections.

  15. Attributing mortality among drivers of population decline in Acropora palmata in the Florida Keys (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, D. E.; Miller, M. W.

    2012-06-01

    Acropora palmata populations have experienced steep declines over the past 30 years. Although numerous culprits are recognized, their relative contributions to the decline are poorly quantified, making it difficult to prioritize effective conservation measures. In 2004, a demographic monitoring program was implemented in the Florida Keys (USA), aimed at determining the relative importance of various stressors affecting A. palmata. A subset of randomly selected A. palmata colonies within 15 fore-reef plots was tagged and surveyed three to four times per year over 7 years. Colony size, live tissue, prevalence of disease, snail ( Coralliophila abbreviata) predation, physical damage and other conditions were assessed at each survey. The estimated effect of each condition causing recent mortality was ranked, and together, these parameters were used to attribute the population-level tissue loss associated with each condition. In addition, all new colonies in the study plots were counted and assessed annually in order to track trends in total colony count and live tissue abundance. Between 2004 and 2010, the study population has shown more than 50% decline in live area from three main conditions: fragmentation, disease and snail predation. Approximately half of this decline occurred during the catastrophic 2005 hurricane season from which recovery has been minimal. Meanwhile, colony abundance has shown gradual decline throughout the study. Snail predation was the most prevalent condition. However, it ranked third in attributed tissue loss, behind breakage that occurred during the 2005 hurricane season, and disease. Thermal bleaching of A. palmata was not observed during this study. Because mortality continues to outpace recruitment and growth, intervention to ameliorate losses to the more manageable threats including predation and breakage could result in substantial conservation of live tissue, buying time for the abatement of less tractable threats to A. palmata

  16. Decline and local extinction of Fucales in French Riviera: the harbinger of future extinctions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. THIBAUT

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The French Riviera is one of the Mediterranean areas that has been longest and most thoroughly impacted by human activities. Fucales are long-lived, large-sized brown algae that constitute a good model for studying human impact on species diversity. We gathered all historical data (literature and herbarium vouchers, since the early 19th century, to reconstruct their distribution. The current distribution was established from a 7-year (2007-2013 survey of the 212-km shoreline (1/2 500 map, by means of boating, snorkelling and scuba diving. Overall, 18 taxa of Cystoseira and Sargassum have been reported. Upon comparison with historical data, 5 taxa were no longer observed (C. elegans, C. foeniculacea f. latiramosa, C. squarrosa, C. spinosa var. spinosa and S. hornschuchii while C. jabukae, previously unrecorded, was observed. In addition to these  taxa, probably extinct at a local scale, some taxa had suffered a dramatic decline (C. barbata f. barbata, C. crinita, C. spinosa var. compressa and S. acinarium or become nearly extinct (C. foeniculacea f. tenuiramosa. Three of them, which played in the past significant functional roles in coastal communities, can be considered as functionally extinct. Possible causes of decline and local extinction are discussed. A similar situation has already been reported, although at a much more local scale, in a variety of Mediterranean localities. The question therefore arises about the status of Fucales species in the Mediterranean: are some species on the brink of extinction? Is their extinction at the scale of the French Riviera the harbinger of their extinction Mediterranean–wide?

  17. Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVivo, Melia T.; Edmunds, David R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant A.; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J.; Richards, Bryan J.; Schatzl, Hermann M.; Cornish, Todd

    2017-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ= 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

  18. Hungarian Population Discourses in the Twentieth Century: The Problem of Declining Birth Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Ildikó Szántó

    2016-01-01

    Falling birth rates had already been recorded as early as the late-eighteenth century in south-western Hungary in the Ormánság. Population loss from low birth rate remained one of the main topics writers and sociologists focused on in the twentieth century. The issue of Hungarian population decline was highlighted among the social ills in the interwar period, which was one of several subjects that divided intellectuals into ‘populists’ and ‘urbanites’. Following the impact of the low birth ra...

  19. Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

    2018-01-01

    A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

  20. Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in breeding success in a declining population of migratory swans.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wood, K.A.; Newth, J.L.; Hilton, G.M.; Nolet, B.A.; Rees, E.C.

    2016-01-01

    Population declines among migratory Arctic-breeding birds are a growing concern for conservationists. To inform the conservation of these declining populations, we need to understand how demographic rates such as breeding success are influenced by combinations of extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In

  1. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-01-01

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

  2. Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

    2007-12-04

    Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

  3. HIV decline associated with changes in risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal: analysis of population-based HIV prevalence surveys between 2001 and 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deuba, Keshab; Ekström, Anna Mia; Tomson, Göran; Shrestha, Rachana; Marrone, Gaetano

    2017-08-01

    We assessed changes in HIV prevalence and risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal. A total of 7505 participants (aged 16-24 years) from key populations who were at increased risk of HIV infection (2767 people who inject drugs (PWID); 852 men who have sex with men/transgender (MSM/TG); 2851 female sex workers (FSW) and 1035 male labour migrants) were recruited randomly over a 12-year period, 2001-2012. Local epidemic zones of Nepal (Kathmandu valley, Pokhara valley, Terai Highway and West to Far West hills) were analysed separately. We found a very strong and consistent decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade in different epidemic zones among PWID and MSM/TG in Kathmandu, the capital city, most likely due to a parallel increase in safe needle and syringe use and increased condom use. A decrease in HIV prevalence in 22 Terai highway districts, sharing an open border with India, was also consistent with increased condom use among FSW. Among male labour migrants, HIV prevalence was low throughout the period in the West to Far West hilly regions. Condom use by migrant workers involved with FSW abroad increased while their condom use with Nepalese FSW declined. Other risk determinants such as mean age at starting first injection, injection frequency, place of commercial sex solicitation, their mean age when leaving to work abroad did not change consistently across epidemic zones among the young key populations under study. In Nepal, the decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade was remarkably significant and consistent with an increase in condom use and safer use of clean needles and syringes. However, diverging trends in risk behaviours across local epidemic zones of Nepal suggest a varying degree of implementation of national HIV prevention policies. This calls for continued preventive efforts as well as surveillance to sustain the observed downward trend.

  4. Spatial behaviour of little owls (Athene noctua) in a declining low-density population in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunde, Peter; Thorup, Kasper; Jacobsen, Lars Bo

    2009-01-01

    Knowledge of a species' spatial behaviour is essential for understanding its behavioural ecology and a prerequisite to planning of conservation strategies. The little owl has shown a substantial decline in North-western Europe and is on the road of extinction in Denmark. To quantify relevant...... aspects of spatial behaviour in the last remaining Danish population, we followed 27 radio-tagged owls representing 14 territories during a period of 2 years. Mated owls were resident at nesting sites year-round with half of all nocturnal locations found within 125 m. Nightly distance from roosts peaked...

  5. Using latent selection difference to model persistence in a declining population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mara E Erickson

    Full Text Available Population persistence is a direct measure of the viability of a population. Monitoring the distribution of declining populations or subpopulations over time can yield estimates of persistence, which we show can be modeled as a latent selection difference (LSD contrasting attributes of sites where populations have persisted versus those that have not. Predicted persistence can be modeled with predictor covariates to identify factors correlated with species persistence. We demonstrate how to model persistence based on changes in occupancy that can include adjustments for detection probability. Using a known historical distribution of the western grebe (Aechmophorus occidentalis, we adapted methods originally developed for occupancy modeling to evaluate how environmental covariates including emergent vegetation and human developments have affected western grebe persistence in Alberta. The relative probability of persistence was correlated with the extent of shoreline bulrush (Scirpus lacustris, which is important vegetation for nesting cover. We also documented that western grebe populations were less likely to persist on lakes in the boreal forest, primarily located on the northern boundary of the species' range. Factors influencing occupancy were different than those determining persistence by western grebes; persistence and occupancy were not correlated. Persistence was more likely on lakes with recreational development, reflecting reliance by grebes on the larger, fish-bearing waterbodies that also are attractive for lakeshore development. Unfortunately, the correlation with recreational development on Alberta's lakes puts grebes at risk for loss of brood-rearing habitats--primary threats to altricial birds--if steps are not taken to prevent disturbance to bulrush stands. Identifying factors related to the persistence of a species--especially one in decline--is a fundamental step in conservation management.

  6. Chronic wasting disease drives population decline of white-tailed deer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmunds, David; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant; Lindzey, Frederick G.; Cook, Walter; Kreeger, Terry J.; Grogan, Ronald; Cornish, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an invariably fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of white-tailed deer, mule deer, elk, and moose. Despite a 100% fatality rate, areas of high prevalence, and increasingly expanding geographic endemic areas, little is known about the population-level effects of CWD in deer. To investigate these effects, we tested the null hypothesis that high prevalence CWD did not negatively impact white-tailed deer population sustainability. The specific objectives of the study were to monitor CWD-positive and CWD-negative white-tailed deer in a high-prevalence CWD area longitudinally via radio-telemetry and global positioning system (GPS) collars. For the two populations, we determined the following: a) demographic and disease indices, b) annual survival, and c) finite rate of population growth (λ). The CWD prevalence was higher in females (42%) than males (28.8%) and hunter harvest and clinical CWD were the most frequent causes of mortality, with CWD-positive deer over-represented in harvest and total mortalities. Survival was significantly lower for CWD-positive deer and separately by sex; CWD-positive deer were 4.5 times more likely to die annually than CWD-negative deer while bucks were 1.7 times more likely to die than does. Population λ was 0.896 (0.859–0.980), which indicated a 10.4% annual decline. We show that a chronic disease that becomes endemic in wildlife populations has the potential to be population-limiting and the strong population-level effects of CWD suggest affected populations are not sustainable at high disease prevalence under current harvest levels.

  7. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Samantha J; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Jones, Carl G; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography, but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall) and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture, it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will

  8. Assay dependence of Brucella antibody prevalence in a declining Alaskan harbor seal (Phoca vitulina population

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    Hueffer Karsten

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Brucella is a group of bacteria that causes brucellosis, which can affect population health and reproductive success in many marine mammals. We investigated the serological prevalence of antibodies against Brucella bacteria in a declining harbor seal population in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. Results Prevalence ranged from 16 to 74 percent for those tests detecting antibodies, indicating that harbor seals in Glacier Bay have been exposed to Brucella bacteria. However, the actual level of serological prevalence could not be determined because results were strongly assay-dependent. Conclusions This study reinforces the need to carefully consider assay choice when comparing different studies on the prevalence of anti–Brucella antibodies in pinnipeds and further highlights the need for species- or taxon-specific assay validation for both pathogen and host species.

  9. Garter snakes distributions in high elevation aquatic ecosystems: Is there a link with declining amphibian populations and nonnative trout introductions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    K.R. Matthews; R.A. Knapp; K.L. Pope

    2002-01-01

    ABSTRACT.—The dramatic amphibian population declines reported worldwide likely have important effects on their predators. In the Sierra Nevada, where amphibian declines are well documented and some are closely tied to the introduction of nonnative trout, the mountain garter snake, Thamnophis elegans elegans, preys predominately on amphibians. We surveyed 2103 high-...

  10. Thyroid Antibodies, Autoimmunity and Cognitive Decline: Is There a Population-Based Link

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    Kate Napthali

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Autoimmunity is considered an uncommon but under-recognised cause of cognitive decline. Methods: Serum samples from 3,253 randomly selected subjects enrolled in the Hunter Community Study, aged 55-85 years, were assayed for thyrotropin stimulatory hormone, anti-thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPO-Ab, anti-nuclear antibodies (ANA and extractable nuclear antigens (ENA. Cognitive function was assessed using the Audio Recorded Cognitive Screen (ARCS tool. Results: TPO-Ab were found in 8.4% and ANA in 27.9% of the study population, of whom 3% had positive ENA findings. No relationship was found between the ARCS score and either TPO-Ab (coefficient = 0.133; 95% CI -0.20, 0.82, p = 0.616, ANA at a low (coefficient = 1.01; 95% CI -2.58, 0.55, p = 0.203 or a high titre (coefficient = -0.65; 95% CI -2.59, 1.28, p = 0.508, or ENA antibodies (coefficient = 5.12; 95% CI -0.53, 10.77; p = 0.076. Conclusions: Autoantibody findings are common in an aging population and are not associated with cognitive decline.

  11. Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

    2011-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

  12. The 25 parsec local white dwarf population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holberg, J. B.; Oswalt, T. D.; Sion, E. M.; McCook, G. P.

    2016-11-01

    We have extended our detailed survey of the local white dwarf population from 20 to 25 pc, effectively doubling the sample volume, which now includes 232 stars. In the process, new stars within 20 pc have been added, a more uniform set of distance estimates as well as improved spectral and binary classifications are available. The present 25 pc sample is estimated to be about 68 per cent complete (the corresponding 20 pc sample is now 86 per cent complete). The space density of white dwarfs is unchanged at 4.8 ± 0.5 × 10-3 pc-3. This new study includes a white dwarf mass distribution and luminosity function based on the 232 stars in the 25 pc sample. We find a significant excess of single stars over systems containing one or more companions (74 per cent versus 26 per cent). This suggests mechanisms that result in the loss of companions during binary system evolution. In addition, this updated sample exhibits a pronounced deficiency of nearby `Sirius-like' systems. 11 such systems were found within the 20 pc volume versus only one additional system found in the volume between 20 and 25 pc. An estimate of white dwarf birth rates during the last ˜8 Gyr is derived from individual remnant cooling ages. A discussion of likely ways new members of the local sample may be found is provided.

  13. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R.; Taylor, Andrew D.; Robichaux, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

  14. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krushelnycky, Paul D; Loope, Lloyd L; Giambelluca, Thomas W; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R; Taylor, Andrew D; Robichaux, Robert H

    2013-03-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai'i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1-2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  15. When is a species declining? Optimizing survey effort to detect population changes in reptiles.

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    David Sewell

    Full Text Available Biodiversity monitoring programs need to be designed so that population changes can be detected reliably. This can be problematical for species that are cryptic and have imperfect detection. We used occupancy modeling and power analysis to optimize the survey design for reptile monitoring programs in the UK. Surveys were carried out six times a year in 2009-2010 at multiple sites. Four out of the six species--grass snake, adder, common lizard, slow-worm -were encountered during every survey from March-September. The exceptions were the two rarest species--sand lizard and smooth snake--which were not encountered in July 2009 and March 2010 respectively. The most frequently encountered and most easily detected species was the slow-worm. For the four widespread reptile species in the UK, three to four survey visits that used a combination of directed transect walks and artificial cover objects resulted in 95% certainty that a species would be detected if present. Using artificial cover objects was an effective detection method for most species, considerably increased the detection rate of some, and reduced misidentifications. To achieve an 85% power to detect a decline in any of the four widespread species when the true decline is 15%, three surveys at a total of 886 sampling sites, or four surveys at a total of 688 sites would be required. The sampling effort needed reduces to 212 sites surveyed three times, or 167 sites surveyed four times, if the target is to detect a true decline of 30% with the same power. The results obtained can be used to refine reptile survey protocols in the UK and elsewhere. On a wider scale, the occupancy study design approach can be used to optimize survey effort and help set targets for conservation outcomes for regional or national biodiversity assessments.

  16. Can individual and social patterns of resource use buffer animal populations against resource decline?

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    Sam C Banks

    Full Text Available Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing, as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater's possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1:1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species' biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance.

  17. Decline in admissions for childhood asthma, a 26-year period population-based study.

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    Mikalsen, Ingvild Bruun; Skeiseid, Liliane; Tveit, Line Merete; Engelsvold, David Hugo; Øymar, Knut

    2015-12-01

    The prevalence of childhood asthma has increased, although the rate of hospitalization for asthma seems to decrease. In Norway, the rate of hospital admission for childhood asthma from 1984 to 2000 increased. The aim of this study was to assess further trends in hospital admissions for childhood asthma up to 2010. A population-based study including children 1-13 yrs of age hospitalized for asthma during six periods from 1984/1985 to 2009/2010 in Rogaland, Norway, was performed. Medical records from 1536 admissions (1050 children) were studied; and gender, age, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, medications and symptoms were recorded. For all age groups, the rate of admissions per 10.000 increased from 20.1 in 1984/85 to 33.7 in 1989/90, but declined to 14.4 in 2009/2010. Rates were highest in boys (OR 1.87; 95% CI: 1.69, 2.09), younger age groups (OR 2.51; 2.38, 2.64) and decreased from 1984 to 2010 (OR 0.92; 0.88, 0.94). The rates of readmissions were higher than for primary admissions (OR 1.33; 1.19, 1.47). From 1984 to 2010, there was an increased use of inhaled corticosteroids prior to admission (6 to 51%) and started at discharge (7 to 37%), and systemic steroids given during admission (19 to 83%). There has been a substantial decline in the rate of hospital admissions for childhood asthma after 1989/1990, with major differences between age groups and genders. The decline could be due to improved care of children with asthma or a real reduction in asthma exacerbations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

    2013-08-01

    A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline

  19. Ocean-wide Drivers of Migration Strategies and Their Influence on Population Breeding Performance in a Declining Seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayet, Annette L; Freeman, Robin; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Diamond, Antony; Erikstad, Kjell E; Fifield, Dave; Fitzsimmons, Michelle G; Hansen, Erpur S; Harris, Mike P; Jessopp, Mark; Kouwenberg, Amy-Lee; Kress, Steve; Mowat, Stephen; Perrins, Chris M; Petersen, Aevar; Petersen, Ib K; Reiertsen, Tone K; Robertson, Gregory J; Shannon, Paula; Sigurðsson, Ingvar A; Shoji, Akiko; Wanless, Sarah; Guilford, Tim

    2017-12-18

    Which factors shape animals' migration movements across large geographical scales, how different migratory strategies emerge between populations, and how these may affect population dynamics are central questions in the field of animal migration [1] that only large-scale studies of migration patterns across a species' range can answer [2]. To address these questions, we track the migration of 270 Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica, a red-listed, declining seabird, across their entire breeding range. We investigate the role of demographic, geographical, and environmental variables in driving spatial and behavioral differences on an ocean-basin scale by measuring puffins' among-colony differences in migratory routes and day-to-day behavior (estimated with individual daily activity budgets and energy expenditure). We show that competition and local winter resource availability are important drivers of migratory movements, with birds from larger colonies or with poorer local winter conditions migrating further and visiting less-productive waters; this in turn led to differences in flight activity and energy expenditure. Other behavioral differences emerge with latitude, with foraging effort and energy expenditure increasing when birds winter further north in colder waters. Importantly, these ocean-wide migration patterns can ultimately be linked with breeding performance: colony productivity is negatively associated with wintering latitude, population size, and migration distance, which demonstrates the cost of competition and migration on future breeding and the link between non-breeding and breeding periods. Our results help us to understand the drivers of animal migration and have important implications for population dynamics and the conservation of migratory species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Ecophysiology meets conservation: understanding the role of disease in amphibian population declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew R.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Hoverman, Jason T.; Belden, Lisa K.; Bradley, Paul W.; Xie, Gisselle Y.

    2012-01-01

    Infectious diseases are intimately associated with the dynamics of biodiversity. However, the role that infectious disease plays within ecological communities is complex. The complex effects of infectious disease at the scale of communities and ecosystems are driven by the interaction between host and pathogen. Whether or not a given host–pathogen interaction results in progression from infection to disease is largely dependent on the physiological characteristics of the host within the context of the external environment. Here, we highlight the importance of understanding the outcome of infection and disease in the context of host ecophysiology using amphibians as a model system. Amphibians are ideal for such a discussion because many of their populations are experiencing declines and extinctions, with disease as an important factor implicated in many declines and extinctions. Exposure to pathogens and the host's responses to infection can be influenced by many factors related to physiology such as host life history, immunology, endocrinology, resource acquisition, behaviour and changing climates. In our review, we discuss the relationship between disease and biodiversity. We highlight the dynamics of three amphibian host–pathogen systems that induce different effects on hosts and life stages and illustrate the complexity of amphibian–host–parasite systems. We then review links between environmental stress, endocrine–immune interactions, disease and climate change. PMID:22566676

  1. Hungarian Population Discourses in the Twentieth Century: The Problem of Declining Birth Rates

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    Ildikó Szántó

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Falling birth rates had already been recorded as early as the late-eighteenth century in south-western Hungary in the Ormánság. Population loss from low birth rate remained one of the main topics writers and sociologists focused on in the twentieth century. The issue of Hungarian population decline was highlighted among the social ills in the interwar period, which was one of several subjects that divided intellectuals into ‘populists’ and ‘urbanites’. Following the impact of the low birth rate figures in the 1960s, the populists’ views of the 1930s resurfaced in public discourse in the 1960s and 1970s and up to the present day. The concern about the increasing trend of single-child families in rural settlements as well as in urban areas appeared in the various works of Hungarian writers and journalists throughout the previous century. The present paper intends to focus on the intellectual background to the public debates on the population issue, outlining the accounts of the interwar ‘village explorers’ briefly, and the way they are related to the pre-Second World War populist movement. Finally the reappearance of the debates between populists and non-populists of the 1970s is discussed, a debate that is still continuing.

  2. Could Immigration Prevent Population Decline? The Demographic Prospects of Germany Revisited

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    Hannes Weber

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Germany has a record of more than 40 years of below-replacement fertility and annual death surplus. Hence, it is commonly accepted that Germany’s population will decline considerably in the coming decades. Recent increases in immigration may, however, challenge the official long-term demographic projections for Germany. This paper assesses the impact of a permanent higher-than-expected level of net immigration to Germany as in the past three years on the projections for population, age structure and ethnic makeup by mid-century.The paper adds a higher immigration variant to the Federal Statistical Office’s latest Coordinated Population Projection and two variants of a (a constant or (b decreasing fertility rate among migrant women. It can be shown that with permanent net migration as high as in recent years (around 300,000 per annum, Germany’s population would not significantly decrease in the coming decades but would rather remain at 80 million until 2050. On the other hand, the sharp rise in the old-age dependency ratio is only mildly weakened by increased immigration rates. This issue is therefore probably best addressed by other (or additional means. The increase in retirees will level off after 2035 in any case. The ethnic makeup of society would be affected to a greater degree than its age composition: The share of first- and second-generation immigrants among the total population is projected to rise to about 35 percent in this scenario (and to above 40 percent if the third generation is also counted.

  3. Some economic consequences of an ageing and declining population in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeson, G W

    1983-01-01

    Figures for 1981 indicate that Denmark has a fertility level of 1.45 which has been below replacement level since 1968. In that same time period, natural increase has decreased from over 27,000 in 1968 to only 1354 in 1980 and a negative natural increase in 1981 with deaths outnumbering births by 3001. Even during the depression in the 1930's, net population increase was between 6-9/1000 with a fertility level which hovered around replacement level. At that time, the number of females in the childbearing ages was enough to provide population growth, whereas the number is much less today. Population increase is only 0.3/1000. The national population projections for Denmark for 1981-2010 assume an increase in the fertility level from 1.45-1.70 by 1991 after which it remains constant. The number of 20-39 year olds increased steadily until 1945 after which there was a decline as the cohorts from periods with low fertility levels entered this age group, but this was again followed by a steady increase to the present day. The number of females aged 0-39 years is expected to decrease in all age groups to the year 2000. Those aged 40-59 increased in numbers from 1920 to the mid 1960s, since then they have decreased in number, but an increase is forcast for the remainder of the century. The number of elderly females also increased steadily from 1930-80, from about 200,000 to over 550,000; this is expected to continue until 1990 when a short-term decline will set in. Regarding the economic and social consequences of these trends, it is shown that the present decline in fertility has its origins in a period of low unemployment and its negative growth while there was still relatively low unemployment and economic growth. In 1973 the unemployed rate was 0.9% of the work force and this rose to 9.2% in 1981. The Danish population has aged from one with 1/4 million people aged 60 and over at the turn of the century to about 1 million of that age today. Also, the aged themselves

  4. LOCAL POPULATION CHANGE AND VARIATIONS IN RACIAL INTEGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellman, Benjamin; Spielman, Seth E; Franklin, Rachel S

    2018-03-01

    While population growth has been consistently tied to decreasing racial segregation at the metropolitan level in the United States, little work has been done to relate small-scale changes in population size to integration. We address this question through a novel technique that tracks population changes by race and ethnicity for comparable geographies in both 2000 and 2010. Using the Theil Index, we analyze the fifty most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 2010 for changes in multigroup segregation. We classify local areas by their net population change between 2000 and 2010 using a novel unit of analysis based on aggregating census blocks. We find strong evidence that growing parts of rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the United States are crucial to understanding regional differences in segregation that have emerged in past decades. Multigroup segregation declined the most in growing parts of growing metropolitan areas. Comparatively, growing parts of shrinking or stagnant metropolitan areas were less diverse and had smaller declines in segregation. We also find that local areas with shrinking populations had disproportionately high minority representation in 2000 before population loss took place. We conclude that the regional context of population growth or decline has important consequences for the residential mixing of racial groups.

  5. EU protected area network did not prevent a country wide population decline in a threatened grassland bird

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    João P. Silva

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of the Protected Area networks on the conservation status of target species. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the Portuguese Natura 2000 (the European Union network of protected areas in maintaining a species included in the Annex I of the Bird Directive, namely the population of a priority farmland bird, the little bustard Tetrax tetrax. Methods We measured the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 by comparing population trends across time (2003–2006 and 2016 in 51 areas, 21 of which within 12 Special Protection Areas (SPA that were mostly designated for farmland bird conservation and another 30 areas without EU protection. Results Overall, the national population is estimated to have declined 49% over the last 10–14 years. This loss was found to be proportionally larger outside SPA (64% decline compared to losses within SPA (25% decline. However, the absolute male density decline was significantly larger within SPA . Discussion In spite of holding higher population densities and having prevented habitat loss, we conclude that Natura 2000 was not effective in buffering against the overall bustard population decline. Results show that the mere designation of SPA in farmland is not enough to secure species populations and has to be combined with agricultural policies and investment to maintain not only habitat availability but also habitat quality.

  6. EU protected area network did not prevent a country wide population decline in a threatened grassland bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, João P; Correia, Ricardo; Alonso, Hany; Martins, Ricardo C; D'Amico, Marcello; Delgado, Ana; Sampaio, Hugo; Godinho, Carlos; Moreira, Francisco

    2018-01-01

    Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of the Protected Area networks on the conservation status of target species. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the Portuguese Natura 2000 (the European Union network of protected areas) in maintaining a species included in the Annex I of the Bird Directive, namely the population of a priority farmland bird, the little bustard Tetrax tetrax . We measured the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 by comparing population trends across time (2003-2006 and 2016) in 51 areas, 21 of which within 12 Special Protection Areas (SPA) that were mostly designated for farmland bird conservation and another 30 areas without EU protection. Overall, the national population is estimated to have declined 49% over the last 10-14 years. This loss was found to be proportionally larger outside SPA (64% decline) compared to losses within SPA (25% decline). However, the absolute male density decline was significantly larger within SPA . In spite of holding higher population densities and having prevented habitat loss, we conclude that Natura 2000 was not effective in buffering against the overall bustard population decline. Results show that the mere designation of SPA in farmland is not enough to secure species populations and has to be combined with agricultural policies and investment to maintain not only habitat availability but also habitat quality.

  7. [The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhein, E

    1994-08-25

    The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

  8. Rapid population decline in red knots : fitness consequences of decreased refuelling rates and late arrival in Delaware Bay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baker, AJ; Gonzalez, PM; Piersma, T; Niles, LJ; do Nascimento, IDS; Atkinson, PW; Clark, NA; Minton, CDT; Peck, MK; Aarts, G

    2004-01-01

    Most populations of migrant shorebirds around the world are in serious decline, suggesting that vital condition-dependent rates such as fecundity and annual survival are being affected globally. A striking example is the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) population wintering in Tierra del Fuego,

  9. Life history, population viability, and the potential for local adaptation in isolated trout populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. J. Carim; Y. Vindenes; L. A. Eby; C. Barfoot; L. A. Vollestad

    2017-01-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation have caused population decline across taxa through impacts on life history diversity, dispersal patterns, and gene flow. Yet, intentional isolation of native fish populations is a frequently used management strategy to protect against negative interactions with invasive fish species. We evaluated the population viability and genetic...

  10. The use of population viability analysis to identify possible factors contributing to the decline of a rare ungulate population in south-eastern Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D. Capon

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Populations that are vulnerable to decline are of particular concern to wildlife managers and uncovering the mechanisms responsible for downward trends is a crucial step towards developing future viable populations. The aims of this study were to better understand the mechanisms behind the historic decline of the sable antelope, Hippotragus niger, population at the Malilangwe Wildlife Reserve (MWR, to assess its future viability and to use this analysis to determine key areas of breakdown in population growth and link these to potential limiting factors. VORTEX, a population viability model was used to assess the future viability of the sable antelope population and a sensitivity analysis was applied to identify the key areas of breakdown in growth. The sable population is currently viable, but remains highly vulnerable to changes in adult female survival, a factor which had the greatest influence on overall population fitness. Lion predation, impacting on the adult segment of the population, appeared to be the main factor responsible for the historic decline at the MWR.Conservation implications: Sable generally occur at low densities in the lowveld region of Zimbabwe and, as such, populations are vulnerable to increases in mortality rates. The role of lions in driving the decline at the MWR suggests a need to control their numbers and develop prey refuges through improved management of artificial water.

  11. Sixty years of anthropogenic pressure: a spatio-temporal genetic analysis of brown trout populations subject to stocking and population declines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Møller; Fraser, Dylan J.; Meier, Kristian

    2009-01-01

    Analyses of historical samples can provide invaluable information on changes to the genetic composition of natural populations resulting from human activities. Here, we analyse 21 microsatellite loci in historical (archived scales from 1927 to 1956) and contemporary samples of brown trout (Salmo...... trutta) from six neighbouring rivers in Denmark, to compare the genetic structure of wild populations before and after population declines and stocking with nonlocal strains of hatchery trout. We show that all populations have been strongly affected by stocking, with admixture proportions ranging from 14...... differences among populations in hatchery trout admixture proportions. Despite significant changes to the genetic composition within populations over time, dispersal rates among populations were roughly similar before and after stocking. We also assessed whether population declines or introgression...

  12. Pathogens, nutritional deficiency, and climate influences on a declining moose population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, D.L.; Cox, E.W.; Ballard, W.B.; Whitlaw, Heather A.; Lenarz, M.S.; Custer, T.W.; Barnett, T.; Fuller, T.K.

    2006-01-01

    Several potential proximate causes may be implicated in a recent (post-1984) decline in moose (Alces alces andersoni) numbers at their southern range periphery in northwest Minnesota, USA. These causes include deleterious effects of infectious pathogens, some of which are associated with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), negative effects of climate change, increased food competition with deer or moose, legal or illegal hunting, and increased predation by gray wolves (Canis lupus) and black bears (Ursus americanus). Long-standing factors that may have contributed to the moose decline include those typically associated with marginal habitat such as nutritional deficiencies. We examined survival and productivity among radiocollared (n = 152) adult female and juvenile moose in northwest Minnesota during 1995–2000, and assessed cause of death and pathology through carcass necropsy of radiocollared and non-radiocollared animals.Aerial moose surveys suggested that hunting was an unlikely source of the numerical decline because the level of harvest was relatively low (i.e., approx. 15% / 2 yr) and the population usually grew in years following a hunt. The majority of moose mortalities (up to 87% of radiocollared moose [n = 76] and up to 65% of non-radiocollared moose [n = 84]) were proximally related to pathology associated with parasites and infectious disease. Liver fluke (Fascioloides magna) infections apparently constituted the greatest single source of mortality and caused significant pathology in the liver, thoracic and peritoneal cavities, pericardial sac, and lungs. Mortality due to meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis) was less prevalent and was manifested through characteristic neurological disease. Several mortalities apparently were associated with unidentified infectious disease, probably acting in close association with malnutrition. Bone-marrow fat was lower for moose dying of natural causes than those dying of anthropogenic factors or

  13. Coral reef degradation is not correlated with local human population density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, John F.; Valdivia, Abel

    2016-07-01

    The global decline of reef-building corals is understood to be due to a combination of local and global stressors. However, many reef scientists assume that local factors predominate and that isolated reefs, far from human activities, are generally healthier and more resilient. Here we show that coral reef degradation is not correlated with human population density. This suggests that local factors such as fishing and pollution are having minimal effects or that their impacts are masked by global drivers such as ocean warming. Our results also suggest that the effects of local and global stressors are antagonistic, rather than synergistic as widely assumed. These findings indicate that local management alone cannot restore coral populations or increase the resilience of reefs to large-scale impacts. They also highlight the truly global reach of anthropogenic warming and the immediate need for drastic and sustained cuts in carbon emissions.

  14. Genetic Diversity of Plasmodium falciparum Populations in Malaria Declining Areas of Sabah, East Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Ridzuan Mohd Abd Razak

    .532. The genetic data from the present study highlighted the limited diversity and contrasting genetic pattern of P. falciparum populations in the malaria declining areas of Sabah.

  15. An analysis of the declining support for the ANC during the 2011 South African local government elections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Twala

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Local government elections are notorious for low voter turnout, but the May 2011 elections in South Africa showed a record 58 percent of the 24 million registered voters. In South Africa, local government matters and not just because it provides a pointer to what might happen in the provincial and national elections due in 2014, but helps in determining the readiness of the African Nation Congress in providing basic services to the different communities. Interestingly, these elections were preceded by service delivery protests against the ANC. The article is an analysis of the decreased support for the ANC during the 2011 local government elections. The multifaceted reasons behind the boiling cauldron of this decline in support for the ANC are scrutinised. Underpinning this decline in support often lie deep and complex factors which can be uncovered through a careful analysis of the ANC’s campaigning strategies ahead of these elections; the media which has been accused of rampant sensationalism; service delivery protests and mudslinging from other political parties. However, it is not the author’s intention in this article to deal with how other parties fared during these elections, but to highlight their impact on the declined support received by the ANC in the elections. The discussion is presented in four parts: the first presents an exploratory discussion on the theory of local government in the sphere of governance. The second part discusses some key strategies and tactics used by the ANC in attempts to galvanise support, as well as the challenges encountered. The third deals with the opposition parties’ machinery in preventing the ANC from getting a majority vote during the election. Lastly, the article concludes by highlighting the lessons learnt by the ANC during these elections within the framework of electoral politics in South Africa. Keywords: local election 2011, African National Congress (ANC, local government.  Disciplines

  16. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rwegoshora Rwehumbiza T

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum has historically been a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. Recent reports indicate a pronounced decline in infection and disease rates which are commonly ascribed to large-scale bed net programmes and improved case management. However, the decline has also occurred in areas with limited or no intervention. The present study assessed temporal changes in Anopheline populations in two highly malaria-endemic communities of NE Tanzania during the period 1998-2009. Methods Between 1998 and 2001 (1st period and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period, mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and were used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. Results The average number of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009, the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. Conclusion A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite the absence of organized vector control. Part of the decline could be associated with changes in the pattern of monthly rainfall, but other factors may also contribute to the dramatic downward trend. A similar decline in malaria vector densities could contribute to the decrease in levels of malaria infection reported from many parts of SSA.

  17. Waist Circumference, Not Body Mass Index, Is Associated with Renal Function Decline in Korean Population: Hallym Aging Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Hyunju; Quan, Shan Ai; Jeong, Jin-Young; Jang, Soong-Nang; Lee, Jung Eun; Kim, Dong-Hyun

    2013-01-01

    Background Prospective investigation of obesity and renal function decline in Asia is sparse. We examined the associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with renal function decline in a prospective study of Korean population. Methods A total of 454 participants who had baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) levels of more than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in Hallym Aging Study (HAS) were included and followed for 6 years. Renal function decline was defined as follows: (1) an eGFR decline ≥3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (n = 82 cases); (2) an eGFR decrease of 20% or greater (n = 87 cases) at follow-up; (3) an eGFR decrease of 20% greater at follow-up or eGFR decline ≥3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (n = 91 cases); and (4) an eGFR 95 cm in men or >90 cm in women with ≤90 cm in men or ≤85 cm in women, ORs (95% CIs) ranged from 2.31 (1.14–4.69) to 2.78 (1.19–6.50) for the 4 definitions of renal function decline (all p-values for trend Korean population. Our results provide important evidence that simple measurement of central fat deposition rather than BMI could predict decline in renal function in Korean population. PMID:23536858

  18. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf; Pedersen, Erling Møller; Alifrangis, Michael

    2011-01-01

    ) and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period), mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and was used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. RESULTS: The average number...... of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009), the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline...... in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. CONCLUSION: A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite...

  19. Sudden deaths and colony population decline in Greek honey bee colonies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacandritsos, N; Granato, A; Budge, G; Papanastasiou, I; Roinioti, E; Caldon, M; Falcaro, C; Gallina, A; Mutinelli, F

    2010-11-01

    During June and July of 2009, sudden deaths, tremulous movements and population declines of adult honey bees were reported by the beekeepers in the region of Peloponnesus (Mt. Mainalo), Greece. A preliminary study was carried out to investigate these unexplained phenomena in this region. In total, 37 bee samples, two brood frames containing honey bee brood of various ages, eight sugar samples and four sugar patties were collected from the affected colonies. The samples were tested for a range of pests, pathogens and pesticides. Symptomatic adult honey bees tested positive for Varroa destructor, Nosema ceranae, Chronic bee paralysis virus (CBPV), Acute paralysis virus (ABPV), Deformed wing virus (DWV), Sacbrood virus (SBV) and Black queen cell virus (BQCV), but negative for Acarapis woodi. American Foulbrood was absent from the brood samples. Chemical analysis revealed that amitraz, thiametoxan, clothianidin and acetamiprid were all absent from symptomatic adult bees, sugar and sugar patty samples. However, some bee samples, were contaminated with imidacloprid in concentrations between 14 ng/g and 39 ng/g tissue. We present: the infection of Greek honey bees by multiple viruses; the presence of N. ceranae in Greek honey bees and the first record of imidacloprid (neonicotonoid) residues in Greek honey bee tissues. The presence of multiple pathogens and pesticides made it difficult to associate a single specific cause to the depopulation phenomena observed in Greece, although we believe that viruses and N. ceranae synergistically played the most important role. A follow-up in-depth survey across all Greek regions is required to provide context to these preliminary findings. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Fewer but not smaller schools in declining fish and krill populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brierley, Andrew S; Cox, Martin J

    2015-01-05

    Many pelagic species (species that live in the water column), including herring and krill, aggregate to form schools, shoals, or swarms (hereafter simply "schools," although the words are not synonyms). Schools provide benefits to individual members, including locomotory economy and protection from predators that prey on individuals, but paradoxically make schooling species energetically viable and commercially attractive targets for predators of groups and for fishers. Large schools are easier to find and yield greater prey/catch than small schools, and there is a requirement from fields as diverse as theoretical ecology and fisheries management to understand whether and how aggregation sizes change with changing population size. We collated data from vertical echosounder surveys of taxonomically diverse pelagic stocks from geographically diverse ecosystems. The data contain common significant positive linear stock-biomass to school-number relationships. They show that the numbers of schools in the stocks change with changing stock biomass and suggest that the distributions of school sizes do not change with stock biomass. New data that we collected using a multibeam sonar, which can image entire schools, contained the same stock-biomass to school-number relationship and confirm that the distribution of school sizes is not related to changing stock size: put simply, as stocks decline, individuals are distributed among fewer schools, not smaller schools. Since school characteristics affect catchability (the ease or difficulty with which fishers can capture target species) and availability of prey to predators, our findings have commercial and ecological implications, particularly within the aspirational framework of ecosystem-based management of marine systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Genetic structure and evidence for recent population decline in Eurasian otter populations in the Czech and Slovak Republics: implications for conservation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hájková, P.; Pertoldi, C.; Ukendt, Zemanová

    2007-01-01

    Over the latter part of the 20th century, Eurasian otter Lutra lutra populations suffered dramatic declines, resulting in extinction or fragmentation of populations in many western and central European countries. Part of the Czech otter population became totally isolated while the Slovak populati...... that they remain a strongly protected species in both countries. The spreading and re-connection of otter populations observed recently is essential for the future health of the populations, and should be supported through habitat conservation......., suggesting that the strongest decline probably occurred between the 1970s and the mid-1990s. The results of this study confirm that otter populations remain vulnerable to any violent demographic change and, despite the claims of fish-farmers and anglers for legal culls, it is highly desirable...

  2. Airborne Pesticides as an Unlikely Cause for Population Declines of Alpine Frogs in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured...

  3. Documenting and explaining the HIV decline in east Zimbabwe: the Manicaland General Population Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregson, Simon; Mugurungi, Owen; Eaton, Jeffrey; Takaruza, Albert; Rhead, Rebecca; Maswera, Rufurwokuda; Mutsvangwa, Junior; Mayini, Justin; Skovdal, Morten; Schaefer, Robin; Hallett, Timothy; Sherr, Lorraine; Munyati, Shungu; Mason, Peter; Campbell, Catherine; Garnett, Geoffrey P; Nyamukapa, Constance Anesu

    2017-10-06

    The Manicaland cohort was established to provide robust scientific data on HIV prevalence and incidence, patterns of sexual risk behaviour and the demographic impact of HIV in a sub-Saharan African population subject to a generalised HIV epidemic. The aims were later broadened to include provision of data on the coverage and effectiveness of national HIV control programmes including antiretroviral therapy (ART). General population open cohort located in 12 sites in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, representing 4 major socioeconomic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15-44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year or 3-year intervals between July 2001 and November 2013. Follow-up rates among surviving residents ranged between 77.0% (over 3 years) and 96.4% (2 years). HIV prevalence was 25.1% at baseline and had a substantial demographic impact with 10-fold higher mortality in HIV-infected adults than in uninfected adults and a reduction in the growth rate in the worst affected areas (towns) from 2.9% to 1.0%pa. HIV infection rates have been highest in young adults with earlier commencement of sexual activity and in those with older sexual partners and larger numbers of lifetime partners. HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART. We plan to extend the cohort to measure the effects on the epidemic of current and future HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Proposals for access to these data and for collaboration are welcome. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise

  4. Linking temporal changes in the demographic structure and individual growth to the decline in the population of a tropical fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirot, Charlotte; Darnaude, Audrey M.; Guilhaumon, François; Ramos-Miranda, Julia; Flores-Hernandez, Domingo; Panfili, Jacques

    2015-11-01

    The exceptional biodiversity and productivity of tropical coastal lagoons can only be preserved by identifying the causes for the decline in the populations living in these vulnerable ecosystems. The Terminos lagoon in Mexico provided an opportunity for studying this issue as some of its fish populations, in particular the Silver Perch (Bairdiella chrysoura), have declined significantly since the 1980s. Fish sampling campaigns carried out over the whole lagoon area in 1979-81 and again in 2006-2011 revealed the mechanisms which may have been responsible for this decline. Based on biometrical data for 295 juveniles and adults from the two periods and on somatic growth derived from 173 otoliths, a study of the temporal changes in the demographic structure and life history traits (individual growth and body condition) made it possible to distinguish the causes of the decline in the B. chrysoura population. Growth models for the lagoon in 1980-1981 and 2006-2011 showed no significant change in the growth parameters of the population over the last 30 years with a logistic model giving an accurate estimate (R2 = 0.66) of the size-at-age for both periods. The decline in the B. chrysoura population could not be explained by an overall decrease in individual size and condition in the lagoon, the average standard length (SL) and Fulton index (FI) having increased slightly since 1980-1981 (4.6 mm and 0.02 for juveniles and 5.42 mm and 0.07 for adults). However, the size structure of the population in the lagoon has changed, with a significant shift in the size distribution of juveniles with a marked reduction in the proportion of juveniles ≤ 60 mm in the captures (90.9% fewer than in 1980-1981). As the otolith growth rate of fish during the first 4 months also decreased significantly between the two sampling periods (-15%), it is suggested that the main reason for the decline in the abundance and biomass of B. chrysoura within this system may be that its habitats are less

  5. The population decline of Gyps vultures in India and Nepal has slowed since veterinary use of diclofenac was banned.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vibhu Prakash

    Full Text Available Populations of oriental white-backed vulture (Gyps bengalensis, long-billed vulture (Gyps indicus and slender-billed vulture (Gyps tenuirostris crashed during the mid-1990s throughout the Indian subcontinent. Surveys in India, initially conducted in 1991-1993 and repeated in 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2007, revealed that the population of Gyps bengalensis had fallen by 2007 to 0.1% of its numbers in the early 1990s, with the population of Gyps indicus and G. tenuirostris combined having fallen to 3.2% of its earlier level. A survey of G. bengalensis in western Nepal indicated that the size of the population in 2009 was 25% of that in 2002. In this paper, repeat surveys conducted in 2011 were analysed to estimate recent population trends. Populations of all three species of vulture remained at a low level, but the decline had slowed and may even have reversed for G. bengalensis, both in India and Nepal. However, estimates of the most recent population trends are imprecise, so it is possible that declines may be continuing, though at a significantly slower rate. The degree to which the decline of G. bengalensis in India has slowed is consistent with the expected effects on population trend of a measured change in the level of contamination of ungulate carcasses with the drug diclofenac, which is toxic to vultures, following a ban on its veterinary use in 2006. The most recent available information indicates that the elimination of diclofenac from the vultures' food supply is incomplete, so further efforts are required to fully implement the ban.

  6. Effect of Early Referral to Specialist in Dementia on Institutionalization and Functional Decline: Findings from a Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimouguet, Clément; Le-Goff, Mélanie; Rizzuto, Debora; Berr, Claudine; Leffondré, Karen; Pérès, Karine; Dartigues, Jean FranÇois; Helmer, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Although early diagnosis has been hypothesized to benefit both patients and caregivers, until now studies evaluating the effect of early dementia diagnosis are lacking. To investigate the influence of early specialist referral for dementia on the risk of institutionalization and functional decline in Activity of Daily Living (ADL). Incident dementia cases were screened in a prospective population-based cohort, the Three-City Study, and initial specialist consultation for cognitive complaint was assessed at dementia diagnosis. Proportional hazard regression and illness-death models were used to test the association between specialist referral and, respectively, institutionalization and functional decline. Only one third of the incident individuals with dementia had consulted a specialist for cognitive problems early (36%). After adjustment on potential confounders (including cognitive and functional decline) and competing risk of death, participants who had consulted a specialist early in the disease course presented a higher rate of being institutionalized than those who did not (Hazard Ratio = 2.00, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.09- 3.64). But early specialist referral was not associated with further functional decline (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.71- 1.67). Early specialist referral in dementia is associated with increased risk of institutionalization but not with functional decline in ADL. These findings suggest that early care referral in dementia may be a marker of concern for patients and/or caregivers; subsequent medical and social care could be suboptimal or inappropriate to allow patients to stay longer at home.

  7. The use of population viability analysis to identify possible factors contributing to the decline of a rare ungulate population in south-eastern Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D. Capon

    2013-04-01

    Conservation implications: Sable generally occur at low densities in the lowveld region of Zimbabwe and, as such, populations are vulnerable to increases in mortality rates. The role of lions in driving the decline at the MWR suggests a need to control their numbers and develop prey refuges through improved management of artificial water.

  8. Detection and effects of harmful algal toxins in Scottish harbour seals and potential links to population decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Silje-Kristin; Lacaze, Jean-Pierre; Hermann, Guillaume; Kershaw, Joanna; Brownlow, Andrew; Turner, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa

    2015-04-01

    Over the past 15 years or so, several Scottish harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations have declined in abundance and several factors have been considered as possible causes, including toxins from harmful algae. Here we explore whether a link could be established between two groups of toxins, domoic acid (DA) and saxitoxins (STXs), and the decline in the harbour seal populations in Scotland. We document the first evidence that harbour seals are exposed to both DA and STXs from consuming contaminated fish. Both groups of toxins were found in urine and faeces sampled from live captured (n = 162) and stranded animals (n = 23) and in faecal samples collected from seal haul-out sites (n = 214) between 2008 and 2013. The proportion of positive samples and the toxins levels measured in the excreta were significantly higher in areas where harbour seal abundance is in decline. There is also evidence that DA has immunomodulatory effects in harbour seals, including lymphocytopenia and monocytosis. Scottish harbour seals are exposed to DA and STXs through contaminated prey at potentially lethal levels and with this evidence we suggest that exposure to these toxins are likely to be important factors driving the harbour seal decline in some regions of Scotland. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The effect of new business creation on employment growth in regions facing population decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delfmann, Heike; Koster, Sierdjan

    Particularly in declining regions, new businesses creation is seen as a means to secure (future) employment opportunities. However, the way in which new business creation exerts its influence on employment is not evident. Do start-ups in these areas influencing employment change as they do in growth

  10. Liberia: local politics, state building and reintegration of populations

    OpenAIRE

    Jairo Munive

    2013-01-01

    Interventions aiming to assist IDPs and refugees returning homein fragile states would do well to take note of the local political and economic contexts in the aftermath of war, because these deeplyaffect the reintegration of war-affected populations.

  11. The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, R A; Byles, J; Magliano, D J; Mitchell, P; Anstey, K J

    2015-03-01

    Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes. Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death. Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death. Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

  12. Increased planned delivery contributes to declining rates of pregnancy hypertension in Australia: a population-based record linkage study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christine L; Algert, Charles S; Morris, Jonathan M; Ford, Jane B

    2015-10-05

    Since the 1990s, pregnancy hypertension rates have declined in some countries, but not all. Increasing rates of early planned delivery (before the due date) have been hypothesised as the reason for the decline. The aim of this study was to explore whether early planned delivery can partly explain the declining pregnancy hypertension rates in Australia. Population-based record linkage study utilising linked birth and hospital records. A cohort of 1,076,122 deliveries in New South Wales, Australia, 2001-2012. Pregnancy hypertension (including gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia and eclampsia) was the main outcome; pre-eclampsia was a secondary outcome. From 2001 to 2012, pregnancy hypertension rates declined by 22%, from 9.9% to 7.7%, and pre-eclampsia by 27%, from 3.3% to 2.4% (trend prate was predicted to increase to 10.5%. Examination of annual gestational age distributions showed that pregnancy hypertension rates actually declined from 38 weeks gestation and were steepest from 41 weeks; at least 36% of the decrease could be attributed to planned deliveries. The risk factors for pregnancy hypertension were also risk factors for planned delivery. It appears that an unanticipated consequence of increasing early planned deliveries is a decline in the incidence of pregnancy hypertension. Women with risk factors for hypertension were relatively more likely to be selected for early delivery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  13. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... differences in daily recruitment and within-patch survival rates. Males were most abundant relative to females early in the season, indicating protandry. Total adult population size was small and showed dramatic variation between the two years, indicating how vulnerable the local population is to demographic extinction.

  14. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline

    KAUST Repository

    Vignaud, Thomas M.

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world\\'s largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignaud, Thomas M; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Leblois, Raphael; Meekan, Mark G; Vázquez-Juárez, Ricardo; Ramírez-Macías, Dení; Pierce, Simon J; Rowat, David; Berumen, Michael L; Beeravolu, Champak; Baksay, Sandra; Planes, Serge

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world's largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Two-year decline in vision but not hearing is associated with memory decline in very old adults in a population-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anstey, K J; Luszcz, M A; Sanchez, L

    2001-01-01

    Recent cross-sectional research in cognitive aging has demonstrated a robust association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive performance in old age. However, the nature of the association is still unclear, particularly with respect to whether sensory and cognitive function are causally related. This study aimed to determine whether marked declines in performance on screening measures of either visual acuity or auditory thresholds have an effect on cognitive decline over 2 years. The sample from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing (n = 2,087) were assessed in 1992 and 1994 on measures of sensory and cognitive function as part of a larger clinical assessment. A quasi-experimental design involving comparison of extreme groups using repeated measures MANCOVA with age as a covariate was used. Group performance on measures of hearing, memory, verbal ability and processing speed declined significantly. Decline in visual acuity had a significant effect on memory decline, but not on decline in verbal ability or processing speed. Decline in hearing was not associated with decline in any cognitive domain. The common association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive function observed in cross-sectional studies appears to be disassociated in longitudinal studies. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel

  17. Genetic consequences of population decline in the Danish population of the little owl (Athene noctua)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pertoldi, Cino; Pellegrino, Irene; Cucco, Maroc

    2012-01-01

    Background: Danish populations of the little owl (Athene noctua) have experienced dramaticdeclines in size over the past century. Before 1960 the little owl population was abundantin Denmark (estimated N>2000), but between 1960 and 1980 the population declinedrapidly, and since 1980 the little ow...

  18. Ginkgo Biloba Extract and Long-Term Cognitive Decline: A 20-Year Follow-Up Population-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amieva, Hélène; Meillon, Céline; Helmer, Catherine; Barberger-Gateau, Pascale; Dartigues, Jean François

    2013-01-01

    Background Numerous studies have looked at the potential benefits of various nootropic drugs such as Ginkgo biloba extract (EGb761®; Tanakan®) and piracetam (Nootropyl®) on age-related cognitive decline often leading to inconclusive results due to small sample sizes or insufficient follow-up duration. The present study assesses the association between intake of EGb761® and cognitive function of elderly adults over a 20-year period. Methods and Findings The data were gathered from the prospective community-based cohort study ‘Paquid’. Within the study sample of 3612 non-demented participants aged 65 and over at baseline, three groups were compared: 589 subjects reporting use of EGb761® at at least one of the ten assessment visits, 149 subjects reporting use of piracetam at one of the assessment visits and 2874 subjects not reporting use of either EGb761® or piracetam. Decline on MMSE, verbal fluency and visual memory over the 20-year follow-up was analysed with a multivariate mixed linear effects model. A significant difference in MMSE decline over the 20-year follow-up was observed in the EGb761® and piracetam treatment groups compared to the ‘neither treatment’ group. These effects were in opposite directions: the EGb761® group declined less rapidly than the ‘neither treatment’ group, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (β = −0.6). Regarding verbal fluency and visual memory, no difference was observed between the EGb761® group and the ‘neither treatment’ group (respectively, β = 0.21 and β = −0.03), whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (respectively, β = −1.40 and β = −0.44). When comparing the EGb761® and piracetam groups directly, a different decline was observed for the three tests (respectively β = −1.07, β = −1.61 and β = −0.41). Conclusion Cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population was lower in subjects who reported using EGb761® than in

  19. Ginkgo biloba extract and long-term cognitive decline: a 20-year follow-up population-based study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hélène Amieva

    Full Text Available Numerous studies have looked at the potential benefits of various nootropic drugs such as Ginkgo biloba extract (EGb761®; Tanakan® and piracetam (Nootropyl® on age-related cognitive decline often leading to inconclusive results due to small sample sizes or insufficient follow-up duration. The present study assesses the association between intake of EGb761® and cognitive function of elderly adults over a 20-year period.The data were gathered from the prospective community-based cohort study 'Paquid'. Within the study sample of 3612 non-demented participants aged 65 and over at baseline, three groups were compared: 589 subjects reporting use of EGb761® at at least one of the ten assessment visits, 149 subjects reporting use of piracetam at one of the assessment visits and 2874 subjects not reporting use of either EGb761® or piracetam. Decline on MMSE, verbal fluency and visual memory over the 20-year follow-up was analysed with a multivariate mixed linear effects model. A significant difference in MMSE decline over the 20-year follow-up was observed in the EGb761® and piracetam treatment groups compared to the 'neither treatment' group. These effects were in opposite directions: the EGb761® group declined less rapidly than the 'neither treatment' group, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (β = -0.6. Regarding verbal fluency and visual memory, no difference was observed between the EGb761® group and the 'neither treatment' group (respectively, β = 0.21 and β = -0.03, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (respectively, β = -1.40 and β = -0.44. When comparing the EGb761® and piracetam groups directly, a different decline was observed for the three tests (respectively β = -1.07, β = -1.61 and β = -0.41.Cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population was lower in subjects who reported using EGb761® than in those who did not. This effect may be a specific medication

  20. Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

    2014-01-01

    The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

  1. Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Christianson

    Full Text Available The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

  2. Decline of heterozygosity in a large but isolated population: a 45-year examination of moose genetic diversity on Isle Royale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renae L. Sattler

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife conservation and management approaches typically focus on demographic measurements to assess population viability over both short and long periods. However, genetic diversity is an important predictor of long term population vitality. We investigated the pattern of change in genetic diversity in a large and likely isolated moose (Alces alces population on Isle Royale (Lake Superior from 1960–2005. We characterized samples, partitioned into five different 5-year periods, using nine microsatellite loci and a portion of the mtDNA control region. We also simulated the moose population to generate a theoretical backdrop of genetic diversity change. In the empirical data, we found that the number of alleles was consistently low and that observed heterozygosity notably declined from 1960 to 2005 (p = 0.08, R2 = 0.70. Furthermore, inbreeding coefficients approximately doubled from 0.08 in 1960–65 to 0.16 in 2000–05. Finally, we found that the empirical rate of observed heterozygosity decline was faster than the rate of observed heterozygosity loss in our simulations. Combined, these data suggest that genetic drift and inbreeding occurred in the Isle Royale moose populations over the study period, leading to significant losses in heterozygosity. Although inbreeding can be mitigated by migration, we found no evidence to support the occurrence of recent migrants into the population using analysis of our mtDNA haplotypes nor microsatellite data. Therefore, the Isle Royale moose population illustrates that even large populations are subjected to inbreeding in the absence of migration.

  3. Climate Warming as a Possible Trigger of Keystone Mussel Population Decline in Oligotrophic Rivers at the Continental Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolotov, Ivan N; Makhrov, Alexander A; Gofarov, Mikhail Yu; Aksenova, Olga V; Aspholm, Paul E; Bespalaya, Yulia V; Kabakov, Mikhail B; Kolosova, Yulia S; Kondakov, Alexander V; Ofenböck, Thomas; Ostrovsky, Andrew N; Popov, Igor Yu; von Proschwitz, Ted; Rudzīte, Mudīte; Rudzītis, Māris; Sokolova, Svetlana E; Valovirta, Ilmari; Vikhrev, Ilya V; Vinarski, Maxim V; Zotin, Alexey A

    2018-01-08

    The effects of climate change on oligotrophic rivers and their communities are almost unknown, albeit these ecosystems are the primary habitat of the critically endangered freshwater pearl mussel and its host fishes, salmonids. The distribution and abundance of pearl mussels have drastically decreased throughout Europe over the last century, particularly within the southern part of the range, but causes of this wide-scale extinction process are unclear. Here we estimate the effects of climate change on pearl mussels based on historical and recent samples from 50 rivers and 6 countries across Europe. We found that the shell convexity may be considered an indicator of the thermal effects on pearl mussel populations under warming climate because it reflects shifts in summer temperatures and is significantly different in viable and declining populations. Spatial and temporal modeling of the relationship between shell convexity and population status show that global climate change could have accelerated the population decline of pearl mussels over the last 100 years through rapidly decreasing suitable distribution areas. Simulation predicts future warming-induced range reduction, particularly in southern regions. These results highlight the importance of large-scale studies of keystone species, which can underscore the hidden effects of climate warming on freshwater ecosystems.

  4. Decreasing systolic blood pressure and declining mortality rates in an untreated population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla O; Marott, Jacob L; Jensen, Gorm B

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate developments in 30 years mortality risk that may be associated with developments in population systolic blood pressure (SBP) and to evaluate possible secular trends in BP-associated mortality risk in the untreated population....

  5. Declining human population but increasing residential development around protected areas in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Castro-Prieto; S. Martinuzzi; V.C. Radeloff; D.P. Helmers; M. Quiñones; W.A. Gould

    2017-01-01

    Increasing residential development around protected areas is a major threat for protected areas worldwide, and human population growth is often the most important cause. However, population is decreasing in many regions as a result of socio-economic changes, and it is unclear how residential development around protected areas is affected in these situations. We...

  6. Trap-induced mass declines in small mammals: Mass as a population index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean E. Pearson; Yvette K. Ortega; Leonard F. Ruggiero

    2003-01-01

    Body mass is routinely used as an index of physical condition for comparing small-mammal populations. However, trapping effects on animals may undermine the effectiveness of body mass as an index of population health. We examined the effects of live-trapping on body mass of 3 small-mammal species: deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), southern red-...

  7. Personality-Related Determinants of Subtle Cognitive Decline in Old Age: A Population-Based Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristelle Rodriguez

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Recent studies of cases with mild cognitive impairment (MCI suggested that besides Alzheimer disease (AD-related biomarkers, some personality dimensions are associated with progression to AD. To date, there are no studies addressing the psychological determinants of subtle cognitive decline in healthy elderly controls. Methods: 488 community-dwelling healthy controls were assessed with a detailed neuropsychological battery at baseline and an 18-month follow-up. Personality factors and facets were investigated at baseline using the NEO-Personality Inventory-Revised (NEO-PI-R. Upon follow-up, there were 264 stable controls (sCON and 224 deteriorating controls (dCON. Their personality data were compared to those of the 102 MCI cases using one-way analysis of variance and logistic regression models. Results: Significantly higher scores of Openness factor (as well as Aesthetics, Ideas and Values facets were found in sCON than in both dCON and MCI cases. The three groups did not differ in the other NEO-PI-R factor and facet scores. Openess factor (and the same facets was associated with cognitive preservation in healthy controls (OR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.59, 0.87. Lower scores in the same factor and facets conferred higher risk to have MCI (OR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.79. Conclusion: Higher openness to new experiences and thoughts may be a protective factor against early cognitive decline in brain aging.

  8. Browsing Patterns of White-Tailed Deer Following Increased Timber Harvest and a Decline in Population Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn M. Crimmins

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined browsing patterns of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus on a site in the central Appalachians that experienced a substantial (>50% reduction in deer population density and an increase in the amount of timber harvest since 2001. We sampled woody browse in and immediately adjacent to 12 clearcuts ranging in age from 0–5 years postharvest in summer 2007. Clearcut-interior areas had higher woody browse abundance and browsing rates than clearcut-edge or mature forest areas. Woody browse abundance was slightly higher within individual clearcuts than in 2001 at higher population densities and lower timber harvest rates. Overall browsing rates declined from approximately 17% in 2001 to less than 5% during our study, suggesting that the combination of deer population control, and increasing the amount of timber harvest across the landscape can reduce herbivory to levels that may not impede growth and survival of forest vegetation.

  9. Genetic footprint of population fragmentation and contemporaneous decline in the endangered Yangtze finless porpoise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Minmin; Fontaine, Michael C; Chehida, Yacine Ben; Zheng, Jinsong; Labbé, Frédéric; Mei, Zhigang; Hao, Yujiang; Wang, Kexiong; Wu, Min; Zhao, Qingzhong; Wang, Ding

    2017-01-01

    Understanding demographic trends and patterns of gene flow in an endangered species is crucial for devising conservation strategies. Here, we examined the extent of population structure and recent evolution of the critically endangered Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena asiaeorientalis

  10. Population decline of the Elfin-woods Warbler Setophaga angelae in eastern Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.J. Arendt; S.S. Qian; K. Mineard

    2013-01-01

    We estimated the population density of the globally threatened Elfin-woods Warbler Setophaga angelae within two forest types at different elevations in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in north-eastern Puerto Rico. Population densities ranged from 0.01 to 0.02 individuals/ha in elfin woodland and 0.06–0.26 individuals/ha in palo colorado forest in 2006, with average...

  11. Odorous house ants (Tapinoma sessile as back-seat drivers of localized ant decline in urban habitats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Salyer

    Full Text Available Invasive species and habitat disturbance threaten biodiversity worldwide by modifying ecosystem performance and displacing native organisms. Similar homogenization impacts manifest locally when urbanization forces native species to relocate or reinvade perpetually altered habitat. This study investigated correlations between ant richness and abundance in response to urbanization and the nearby presence of invasive ant species, odorous house ants (Tapinoma sessile, within its native region. Surveying localized ant composition within natural, semi-natural, and urban habitat supported efforts to determine whether T. sessile appear to be primary (drivers threats as instigators or secondary (passengers threats as inheritors of indigenous ant decline. Sampling 180 sites, evenly split between all habitats with and without T. sessile present, yielded 45 total species. Although urbanization and T. sessile presence factors were significantly linked to ant decline, their interaction correlated to the greatest reduction of total ant richness (74% and abundance (81%. Total richness appeared to decrease from 27 species to 18 when natural habitat is urbanized and from 18 species to 7 with T. sessile present in urban plots. Odorous house ant presence minimally influenced ant communities within natural and semi-natural habitat, highlighting the importance of habitat alteration and T. sessile presence interactions. Results suggest urbanization releases T. sessile from unknown constraints by decreasing ant richness and competition. Within urban environment, T. sessile are pre-adapted to quickly exploit new resources and grow to supercolony strength wherein T. sessile drive adjacent biodiversity loss. Odorous house ants act as passengers and drivers of ecological change throughout different phases of urban 'invasion'. This progression through surviving habitat alteration, exploiting new resources, thriving, and further reducing interspecific competition supports a

  12. Demographic Decline and Growth in Baja California during the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries. A Look at Census and Local Registers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dení Trejo Barajas

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The indigenous population of Baja California was  reduced  significantly  during the missionary period. However, in the  early­ nineteenth century the  declining demographic trend that led these peoples to extinction began to revert. The immigration of groups  that settled in the  former missions, in nearby ranches, along  the  coasts  and  in  the  mining regions  in  the   Southern part of the península gave place  to an unstable but important demographic growth in the region. This work reviews this de­mographic rocess in its different stages, by  analyzing the  cen­sus and regtsters of religious and civil  authorities of  the  Baja California península.

  13. Long-term effective population sizes, temporal stability of genetic composition and potential for local adaptation in anadromous brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Møller; Ruzzante, D.E.; Eg Nielsen, Einar

    2002-01-01

    temporal samples from the same populations than among samples from different populations. Estimates of N-e, using a likelihood-based implementation of the temporal method, revealed N-e greater than or equal to 500 in two of three populations for which we have historical data. A third population in a small...... (3 km) river showed Ne greater than or equal to 300. Assuming a stepping-stone model of gene flow we considered the relative roles of gene flow, random genetic drift and selection to assess the possibilities for local adaptation. The requirements for local adaptation were fulfilled, but only...... adaptations resulting from strong selection were expected to occur at the level of individual populations. Adaptations resulting from weak selection were more likely to occur on a regional basis, i.e. encompassing several populations. N-e appears to have declined recently in at least one of the studied...

  14. Chronic lack of breeding by Galápagos Blue-footed Boobies and associated population decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Anchundia

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A survey of Blue-footed Boobies (Sula nebouxii excisa throughout the taxon's range in Galápagos, Ecuador found ~6400 adults, compared to a rough estimate of 20,000 in the 1960s. Few pairs bred in 2011-2013 and almost no birds in juvenile plumage were seen. Long-term data suggest that poor breeding began in 1998. Lack of recruitment over this period would mean that the current population is mostly elderly and experiencing senescent decline in performance. Anthropogenic effects such as introduced predators are unlikely to explain this decline because islands with and without such factors exhibited the same low breeding. The poor reproduction seems to be linked to diet. Previous work indicated that sardine and herring (Clupeidae supported successful breeding, but these fish were mostly absent from the diet during this study, except in the central part of Galápagos, where most breeding attempts during this study occurred. Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific sardine abundance has decreased dramatically by natural processes in the last 15 years, as part of a well-documented and apparently natural cycle. This cyclic change in abundance provides a possible explanation for the recent demographic changes in Blue-footed Boobies in Galápagos. Whether natural or anthropogenic in origin, the implications of senescent decline in breeding ability and survival are dramatic for this genetically distinct icon of biodiversity and ecotourism.

  15. Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidre, K.L.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Bodkin, James L.; Monson, Daniel H.; Schneider, K.

    2006-01-01

    1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967–71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992–97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves.2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12–18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10–11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves.3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1–2 years earlier in the 1990s.4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation.5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lxfunction) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations).6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at

  16. Diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat with reference to Gyps vulture population declines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taggart, M.A. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); School of Biological Sciences, Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Aberdeen, AB24 3UU (United Kingdom); Cuthbert, R. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: richard.cuthbert@rspb.org.uk; Das, D. [Bombay Natural History Society, Hornbill House, Mumbai, 400023 (India); Sashikumar, C. [Bombay Natural History Society, Hornbill House, Mumbai, 400023 (India); Pain, D.J. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); Green, R.E. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); Conservation Biology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ (United Kingdom); Feltrer, Y. [Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent' s Park, London, NW1 4RY (United Kingdom); Shultz, S. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent' s Park, London, NW1 4RY (United Kingdom); Cunningham, A.A. [Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent' s Park, London, NW1 4RY (United Kingdom); Meharg, A.A. [School of Biological Sciences, Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Aberdeen, AB24 3UU (United Kingdom)

    2007-05-15

    Gyps vultures across India are declining rapidly and the NSAID diclofenac has been shown to be the major cause. Vultures scavenge livestock carcasses that have been treated with diclofenac within the days preceding death. We present data on diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat, and field data on the prevalence of diclofenac in carcases in the environment. In the disposition experiment, animals were treated with a single intramuscular injection of diclofenac at 1000 {mu}g kg{sup -1} bw. In cow, diclofenac was detectable in liver, kidney and intestine up to 71 h post-treatment; in plasma, half-life was 12.2 h. In goat, tissue residues were undetectable after 26 h. Prevalence of diclofenac in liver from 36 dead livestock collected in the field was 13.9%. Data suggest that diclofenac residues in Indian cow and goat are short-lived, but diclofenac prevalence in carcasses available to vultures may still be very high. - Residual diclofenac in livestock carcasses in India poses a continuing risk to Gyps vultures.

  17. Diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat with reference to Gyps vulture population declines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taggart, M.A.; Cuthbert, R.; Das, D.; Sashikumar, C.; Pain, D.J.; Green, R.E.; Feltrer, Y.; Shultz, S.; Cunningham, A.A.; Meharg, A.A.

    2007-01-01

    Gyps vultures across India are declining rapidly and the NSAID diclofenac has been shown to be the major cause. Vultures scavenge livestock carcasses that have been treated with diclofenac within the days preceding death. We present data on diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat, and field data on the prevalence of diclofenac in carcases in the environment. In the disposition experiment, animals were treated with a single intramuscular injection of diclofenac at 1000 μg kg -1 bw. In cow, diclofenac was detectable in liver, kidney and intestine up to 71 h post-treatment; in plasma, half-life was 12.2 h. In goat, tissue residues were undetectable after 26 h. Prevalence of diclofenac in liver from 36 dead livestock collected in the field was 13.9%. Data suggest that diclofenac residues in Indian cow and goat are short-lived, but diclofenac prevalence in carcasses available to vultures may still be very high. - Residual diclofenac in livestock carcasses in India poses a continuing risk to Gyps vultures

  18. Declines in populations of Salix caprea L.during forest regeneration after strong herbivore pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janusz B. Faliński

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Communities of broadleaved forest subject to strong pressure from large herbivores underwent degeneration. The relief of this pressure led to regeneration of the community, in which an important role was played by the sallow Salix caprea and other light-seeded pioneer species of tree (Populus tremula, Betula pendula and B. pubescens. Regeneration involving Salix caprea proceeded following the conservatorial protection of the degenerate stands in a reserve and later in Białowieża National Park. The emergence and development of the population of Salix caprea proceeded following the invasion of spruce, which coincided with the period of enhanced animal pressure on broadleaved forest. Salix caprea filled all the gaps in the tree stand arising as a result of the destruction of trees and undergrowth by herbivores (in the years 1892-1915. It also appeared en masse on old, at that time unforested, clearings and felled areas. In these places, Salix caprea created very abundant populations, with particular trees being in good condition, with a habit typical of forest trees and attaining considerable heights. The majority of trees were 50-60 years old at the time of death, although individuals reached 74 years of age. The process of extinction of the sallow population - observed over 19 years on permanent plots and fixed trees - proceeded very quickly, especially in the first decade of observation. It led to the almost complete disappearance of sallow for the forest communities of Białowieża National Park. The death of individual trees is preceded by impairment of their health and reduced annual increments in the 4-9 last years of life. The extinction of the population is associated with the loss of its primary phenological differentiation and with a change in the sex structure of the population from a prevalence of female trees to a near even distribution of the two sexes. The development of the populations of permanent constituents of the forest

  19. Genetic diversity of Ghanaian local chicken populations based on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In Ghana, local chickens are raised across distinct agro-ecological zones and constitute unique populations with variable phenotypes that need to be characterized to provide needed information for the conservation of useful genotypes against future needs. In particular, the Interior Savannah (GHIS) in the north, the Forest ...

  20. Liberia: local politics, state building and reintegration of populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jairo Munive

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Interventions aiming to assist IDPs and refugees returning homein fragile states would do well to take note of the local political and economic contexts in the aftermath of war, because these deeplyaffect the reintegration of war-affected populations.

  1. Distribution of MN blood group types in local populations in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    lation, which measures how many people come into the local population, was then .... 1986). In contrast, the Japanese have only 30.9%. (Furuhata et al. ... also came from nearby towns, all of which, Isabela included, are composed of ...

  2. Local cabbage ( Brassica oleracea var. capitata L.) populations from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In previous experiments, we were able to augment cabbages (Brassica oleracea L. var. capitata L.) with two new local open pollinated (OP) populations and one cultivar. The type of use indicated that these are cabbages with thinner and juicier leaves, which predisposes their heads for fine grating and also makes their ...

  3. Genetic consequences of population decline in Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) populations in the Czech and Slovak Republics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gettová, Lenka; Hájková, Petra

    Supp., - (2011), s. 102 ISSN 0394-1914. [International Otter Colloquium /11./. 30.08.2011-04.09.2011, Pavia] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB600930804 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : Eurasian otter * population size Subject RIV: EG - Zoology http://www.internationalottercolloquium2010.eu/files/proceedings_iucn_xi_ioc_2011.pdf

  4. Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

    2014-08-01

    Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

  5. Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA is announcing the availability of the final report, Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California. This report describes a causal assessment of the decline in the abundance of San Joaq...

  6. The ongoing decline of the breeding population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in The Netherlands is not explained by changes in adult survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roodbergen, Maja; Klok, Chris; Schekkerman, Hans

    2008-01-01

    The Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa is a characteristic breeding wader of wet grasslands in The Netherlands which has suffered a strong population decline since the 1960s. Low breeding success has been implicated as the main driver of this decline and here we examine whether changes in adult

  7. The ongoing decline of the breeding population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in The Netherlands is not explained by changes in adult survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roodbergen, M.; Klok, C.; Schekkerman, H.

    2008-01-01

    The Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa is a characteristic breeding wader of wet grasslands in the Netherlands which has suffered a strong population decline since the 1960s. Low breeding success has been implicated as the main driver of this decline and here we examine whether changes in adult

  8. Local population decline in rural North-Netherlands. PhD Thesis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elshof, H.

    2017-01-01

    Verdwijnen basisschool betekent niet het einde van het krimpdorp. Inwoners van krimpdorpen hoeven niet bang te zijn dat het sluiten van een basisschool het einde van het dorp betekent. Het verdwijnen van een school versterkt de uitstroom van bepaalde bevolkingsgroepen slechts in beperkte mate,

  9. Improved analysis of long-term monitoring data demonstrates marked regional declines of bat populations in the eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas E. Ingersoll; Brent J. Sewall; Sybill K. Amelon

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by...

  10. Can Citizen Science Assist in Determining Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) Presence in a Declining Population?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flower, Emily; Jones, Darryl; Bernede, Lilia

    2016-07-14

    The acceptance and application of citizen science has risen over the last 10 years, with this rise likely attributed to an increase in public awareness surrounding anthropogenic impacts affecting urban ecosystems. Citizen science projects have the potential to expand upon data collected by specialist researchers as they are able to gain access to previously unattainable information, consequently increasing the likelihood of an effective management program. The primary objective of this research was to develop guidelines for a successful regional-scale citizen science project following a critical analysis of 12 existing citizen science case studies. Secondly, the effectiveness of these guidelines was measured through the implementation of a citizen science project, Koala Quest, for the purpose of estimating the presence of koalas in a fragmented landscape. Consequently, this research aimed to determine whether citizen-collected data can augment traditional science research methods, by comparing and contrasting the abundance of koala sightings gathered by citizen scientists and professional researchers. Based upon the guidelines developed, Koala Quest methodologies were designed, the study conducted, and the efficacy of the project assessed. To combat the high variability of estimated koala populations due to differences in counting techniques, a national monitoring and evaluation program is required, in addition to a standardised method for conducting koala population estimates. Citizen science is a useful method for monitoring animals such as the koala, which are sparsely distributed throughout a vast geographical area, as the large numbers of volunteers recruited by a citizen science project are capable of monitoring a similarly broad spatial range.

  11. Reproductive characteristics and population decline of four species of skate (Rajidae) off the eastern coast of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcphie, R P; Campana, S E

    2009-07-01

    Four of the most common species of skate (Rajidae) were studied off eastern Canada to determine if their reproductive characteristics were linked to their population trajectories. The fecundity of the winter skate Leucoraja ocellata, the little skate Leucoraja erinacea, the thorny skate Amblyraja radiata and the smooth skate Malacoraja senta averaged between 41 and 56 egg cases per year for each species. For all species but L. ocellata, males matured at larger sizes and at later ages than females. Theoretical rates of population increase for non-equilibrium populations of L. ocellata (c. 0.07), M. senta (c. 0.14) and L. erinacea and A. radiata (c. 0.20) were low compared to most fishes, indicating that north-west Atlantic skates are intrinsically unproductive, yet are theoretically capable of supporting low-level fisheries. Nevertheless, the results of 36 years of research surveys indicate that the abundance of mature L. ocellata, A. radiata and M. senta all decreased by >90% since 1970, indicating that past fishing mortality (both directed and undirected) has outstripped the net productivity of the skate populations on the eastern Scotian Shelf. The relationship between maximum age (t(max)) and age of maturity (t(mat)) was a better predictor of population growth rate than was body size, with the species exhibiting the highest ratios of t(mat) :t(max) (L. ocellata = 0.68, M. senta = 0.66) having the lowest predicted population growth rates. L. ocellata appears to have the lowest productivity and has experienced the greatest population decline, thus raising concerns over its future status.

  12. Spatial and temporal variation in population dynamics of Andean frogs: Effects of forest disturbance and evidence for declines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther M. Cole

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity loss is a global phenomenon that can result in the collapse of food webs and critical ecosystem services. Amphibian population decline over the last century is a notable case of species loss because amphibians survived the last four major extinction events in global history, their current rate of extinction is unprecedented, and their rate of extinction is greater than that for most other taxonomic groups. Despite the severity of this conservation problem and its relevance to the study of global biodiversity loss, major knowledge gaps remain for many of the most threatened species and regions in the world. Rigorous estimates of population parameters are lacking for many amphibian species in the Neotropics. The goal of our study was to determine how the demography of seven species of the genus Pristimantis varied over time and space in two cloud forests in the Ecuadorian Andes. We completed a long term capture–mark–recapture study to estimate abundance, survival, and population growth rates in two cloud forests in the Ecuadorian Andes; from 2002 to 2009 at Yanayacu in the Eastern Cordillera and from 2002 to 2003 at Cashca Totoras in the Western Cordillera. Our results showed seasonal and annual variation in population parameters by species and sex. P. bicantus experienced significant reductions in abundance over the course of our study. Abundance, apparent survival, and population growth rates were lower in disturbed than in primary or mature secondary forest. The results of our study raise concerns for the population status of understudied amphibian groups and provide insights into the population dynamics of Neotropical amphibians.

  13. VAM populations in relation to grass invasion associated with forest decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosatka, M; Cudlin, P; Mejstrik, V

    1991-01-01

    Spruce stands in Northern Bohemia forests, damaged to various degrees by industrial pollution, have shown establishment of grass cover following tree defoliation. Populations of vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal (VAM) fungi were studied under this grass cover in four permanent plots with spruce under different levels of pollution stress. Soil and root samples were collected in April and June within each plot as follows: (1) sites without grass, (2) sites with initial stages of grass invasion, and (3) sites with fully developed grass cover. In all plots, the highest number of propagules were recovered from samples taken from sites having full grass cover. Mycorrhizal infection of grass was highest in the plot with the severest pollution damage and lowest in the least damaged plot. The development of grass cover and VAM infection of grass increased with tree defoliation caused by air pollution.

  14. Can Citizen Science Assist in Determining Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus Presence in a Declining Population?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Flower

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The acceptance and application of citizen science has risen over the last 10 years, with this rise likely attributed to an increase in public awareness surrounding anthropogenic impacts affecting urban ecosystems. Citizen science projects have the potential to expand upon data collected by specialist researchers as they are able to gain access to previously unattainable information, consequently increasing the likelihood of an effective management program. The primary objective of this research was to develop guidelines for a successful regional-scale citizen science project following a critical analysis of 12 existing citizen science case studies. Secondly, the effectiveness of these guidelines was measured through the implementation of a citizen science project, Koala Quest, for the purpose of estimating the presence of koalas in a fragmented landscape. Consequently, this research aimed to determine whether citizen-collected data can augment traditional science research methods, by comparing and contrasting the abundance of koala sightings gathered by citizen scientists and professional researchers. Based upon the guidelines developed, Koala Quest methodologies were designed, the study conducted, and the efficacy of the project assessed. To combat the high variability of estimated koala populations due to differences in counting techniques, a national monitoring and evaluation program is required, in addition to a standardised method for conducting koala population estimates. Citizen science is a useful method for monitoring animals such as the koala, which are sparsely distributed throughout a vast geographical area, as the large numbers of volunteers recruited by a citizen science project are capable of monitoring a similarly broad spatial range.

  15. Effects of population based screening for Chlamydia infections in the Netherlands limited by declining participation rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris V Schmid

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A large trial to investigate the effectiveness of population based screening for chlamydia infections was conducted in the Netherlands in 2008-2012. The trial was register based and consisted of four rounds of screening of women and men in the age groups 16-29 years in three regions in the Netherlands. Data were collected on participation rates and positivity rates per round. A modeling study was conducted to project screening effects for various screening strategies into the future. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a stochastic network simulation model incorporating partnership formation and dissolution, aging and a sexual life course perspective. Trends in baseline rates of chlamydia testing and treatment were used to describe the epidemiological situation before the start of the screening program. Data on participation rates was used to describe screening uptake in rural and urban areas. Simulations were used to project the effectiveness of screening on chlamydia prevalence for a time period of 10 years. In addition, we tested alternative screening strategies, such as including only women, targeting different age groups, and biennial screening. Screening reduced prevalence by about 1% in the first two screening rounds and leveled off after that. Extrapolating observed participation rates into the future indicated very low participation in the long run. Alternative strategies only marginally changed the effectiveness of screening. Higher participation rates as originally foreseen in the program would have succeeded in reducing chlamydia prevalence to very low levels in the long run. CONCLUSIONS: Decreasing participation rates over time profoundly impact the effectiveness of population based screening for chlamydia infections. Using data from several consecutive rounds of screening in a simulation model enabled us to assess the future effectiveness of screening on prevalence. If participation rates cannot be kept at a sufficient level

  16. Selection in a subdivided population with local extinction and recolonization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, Joshua L

    2003-01-01

    In a subdivided population, local extinction and subsequent recolonization affect the fate of alleles. Of particular interest is the interaction of this force with natural selection. The effect of selection can be weakened by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. The behavior of a selected allele in such a population is shown to be equivalent to that of an allele with a different selection coefficient in an unstructured population with a different size. This equivalence allows use of established results for panmictic populations to predict such quantities as fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability, is decreased by extinction and recolonization. Thus deleterious alleles are more likely to fix, and advantageous alleles less likely to do so, in the presence of extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations. PMID:12807797

  17. Declining metal levels at Foundry Cove (Hudson River, New York): Response to localized dredging of contaminated sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackie, Joshua A.; Natali, Susan M.; Levinton, Jeffrey S.; Sanudo-Wilhelmy, Sergio A.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the effectiveness of remediating a well-recognized case of heavy metal pollution at Foundry Cove (FC), Hudson River, New York. This tidal freshwater marsh was polluted with battery-factory wastes (1953-1979) and dredged in 1994-1995. Eight years after remediation, dissolved and particulate metals (Cd, Co, Cu, Pb, Ni, and Ag) were found to be lower than levels in the lower Hudson near New York City. Levels of metals (Co, Ni, Cd) on suspended particles were comparatively high. Concentrations of surface sediment Cd throughout the marsh system remain high, but have decreased both in the dredged and undredged areas: Cd was 2.4-230 mg/kg dw of sediment in 2005 vs. 109-1500 mg/kg in the same area in 1983. The rate of tidal export of Cd from FC has decreased by >300-fold, suggesting that dredging successfully stemmed a major source of Cd to the Hudson River. - Dredging of a hotspot of metal-contaminated sediment is associated with a recognizable local and river-wide decline in cadmium in the Hudson River, New York

  18. Functional decline and nutritional status in a hospitalized geriatric population: sequential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Rodriguez, P; González-Reimers, E; Santolaria-Fernández, F; Batista-López, N; González-Reyes, A

    1990-01-01

    We analyzed the relations between nutritional status and several measures of the ability to perform the normal activities of daily living (ADL) in a long-term institutionalized geriatric population and also studied whether changes in this ability, as found ten months later, were associated with changes in the nutritional status. Nutritional status was assessed using objective anthropometric measurements (triceps skinfold, mid upper-arm circumference, midarm muscle area [AMA], midarm fat area [AFA]) and subjective clinical features (temporal muscle atrophy [TMA] and Bichat's fat atrophy [BFA]). The capacity to perform ADL was analyzed considering ability to eat and to walk, dental status, and mental performance status. Patients with total absence or loss of more than 50% of the teeth showed less AMA and AFA and greater degrees of TMA and BFA; the same happened with regard to deterioration of mental performance status. Those patients fed through a nasogastric tube showed less AFA and serum albumin and also a greater degree of TMA and BFA. Patients unable to walk without aid showed less AMA and AFA. Patients whose capacity to walk improved or whose mental performance status ameliorated showed an increase of their AMA, whereas AFA slightly decreased in those patients whose abilities to eat and to walk deteriorated. Long-term hospitalization in our center led to improvement and to deterioration of ADL in approximately the same number of patients, and similar changes were seen in the nutritional measures.

  19. Overcoming challenges to the recovery of declining amphibian populations in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walls, Susan; Ball, Lianne C.; Barichivich, William J.; Dodd, Kenneth; Enge, Kevin M; Gorman, Thomas A.; O'Donnell, Katherine; Palis, John G; Semlitsch, Raymond D.

    2016-01-01

    The US Endangered Species Act of 1973 (ESA) affords many potential benefits to species threatened with extinction. However, most at-risk amphibians—one of the most imperiled vertebrate groups—remain unlisted under the provisions of the ESA, and many impediments to recovery exist for those species that have been listed. Of the 35 US amphibian species and distinct population segments (“taxa”) listed under the ESA, 40% currently lack a final (completed) recovery plan, 28.6% lack designated critical habitat, and 8.6% lack both. For taxa that have recovery plans, the time between their listing and the development of those plans was from 2 to 29 years, and the time between their listing and the designation of critical habitat ranged from 0 to 14 years. The underlying causes of such delays in protection are complex and constitute obstacles to recovery of imperiled species. We outline a series of strategic actions by which these challenges may be overcome.

  20. Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

    2016-06-01

    Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

  1. FUTURE ESTIMATION OF CONVENIENCE LIVING FACILITIES WITHDRAWAL DUE TO POPULATION DECLINE ALL OVER JAPAN FROM 2010 TO 2040 - FOCUS ON SUPERMARKETS, CONVENIENCE STORES AND DRUGSTORES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Nishimoto

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

  2. The recent decline of Montastraea annularis (complex coral populations in western Curaçao: a cause for concern?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. W Bruckner

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Shallow leeward reefs off the western end of Curaçao are dominated by extensive populations of M. annularis (complex. These species are larger in size (mean= 66 cm diameter than all other species, with few small colonies (10 cm observed within transects, and most exhibited low levels of partial mortality (mean= 22.5%. These species were less abundant (38% of all colonies in 2005. Partial mortality among live colonies of M. annularis and M. faveolata increased by 85% (mean = 42% partial mortality and numerous dead colonies of M. faveolata and M. annularis were observed; M. franksi colonies were generally in excellent condition (14% partial tissue mortality. A high prevalence of coral diseases (3-30% was documented among M. annularis and M. faveolata, while all other species were less frequently affected. Yellow band disease (YBD emerged shortly after the 1995 bleaching event, and rapidly spread throughout all depths, with the highest prevalence between 1997-1999. YBD caused slow rates of mortality (=1 cm/month, but multiple focal lesions appeared on individual colonies, and these progressively radiated outward as they killed the colonies. By 2005, 44% of the tagged corals were dead; the remainder exhibited active YBD infections (21% or were in remission (31.6% but were missing on average >90% of their tissue. Although the incidence of YBD has declined since 2000, white plague (WP prevalence was unusually high (4-12% in 2001 and 2005, with affected colonies exhibiting recent mortality of up to 70%. Dead Montastraea spp. surfaces are being colonized by other corals, including poritids, agaricids, and other faviids, while recruits of M. annularis (complex are absent. If diseases and other biotic stressors persist on these reefs, M. annularis and M. faveolata populations may undergo a decline similar to that observed in the 1980s among Caribbean acroporids. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54 (Suppl. 3: 45- 58. Epub 2007 Jan. 15.

  3. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam M Ferreira

    Full Text Available The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008 and white rhinos (2010 together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487 was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956. The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564 overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183. Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  4. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Sam M; Greaver, Cathy; Knight, Grant A; Knight, Mike H; Smit, Izak P J; Pienaar, Danie

    2015-01-01

    The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008) and white rhinos (2010) together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487) was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956). The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564) overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183). Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  5. Local population extinction and vitality of an epiphytic lichen in fragmented old-growth forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockinger, Erik; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-07-01

    The population dynamics of organisms living in short-lived habitats will largely depend on the turnover of habitat patches. It has been suggested that epiphytes, whose host plants can be regarded as habitat patches, often form such patch-tracking populations. However, very little is known about the long-term fate of epiphyte individuals and populations. We estimated life span and assessed environmental factors influencing changes in vitality, fertility, abundance, and distribution of the epiphytic lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria on two spatial scales, individual trees and forest patches, over a period of approximately 10 years in 66 old-growth forest fragments. The lichen had gone extinct from 7 of the 66 sites (13.0%) where it was found 10 years earlier, even though the sites remained unchanged. The risk of local population extinction increased with decreasing population size. In contrast to the decrease in the number of occupied trees and sites, the mean area of the lichen per tree increased by 43.0%. The number of trees with fertile ramets of L. pulmonaria increased from 7 (approximately 1%) to 61 (approximately 10%) trees, and the number of forest fragments with fertile ramets increased from 4 to 23 fragments. The mean annual rate of L. pulmonaria extinction at the tree level was estimated to be 2.52%, translating into an expected lifetime of 39.7 years. This disappearance rate is higher than estimated mortality rates for potential host trees. The risk of extinction at the tree level was significantly positively related to tree circumference and differed between tree species. The probability of presence of fertile ramets increased significantly with local population size. Our results show a long expected lifetime of Lobaria pulmonaria ramets on individual trees and a recent increase in vitality, probably due to decreasing air pollution. The population is, however, declining slowly even though remaining stands are left uncut, which we interpret as an

  6. Participation in population-based case-control studies: does the observed decline vary by socio-economic status?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazloum, Marie; Bailey, Helen D; Heiden, Tamika; Armstrong, Bruce K; de Klerk, Nicholas; Milne, Elizabeth

    2012-05-01

    An Australian study of childhood leukaemia (Aus-ALL) previously reported that control participation was positively associated with socio-economic status (SES). A similar study of childhood brain tumours (Aus-CBT) was carried out 4 years later, and this paper compares control participation and its relationship with SES in the two studies. To assess the representativeness of controls in terms of SES, the addresses of controls were linked to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 Collection Districts (CDs), and hence to area-based indices of SES. Independent sample t-tests and chi-squared tests were used to compare the SES indices of CDs where Aus-CBT controls lived with those where Aus-ALL controls lived and with those of all CDs where Australian families lived. The overall percentage of eligible families who agreed to participate was lower in Aus-CBT (53.9%) than in Aus-ALL (70.3%). Control families in both studies were of higher SES than the general population, while the distribution of SES among recruited controls was similar in both studies. These findings provide some reassurance that the observed decline in research participation over time may not be associated with an increasingly unrepresentative participant population. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. Decline and recovery of a large carnivore: environmental change and long-term trends in an endangered brown bear population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez Cano, Isabel; Taboada, Fernando González; Naves, Javier; Fernández-Gil, Alberto; Wiegand, Thorsten

    2016-11-30

    Understanding what factors drive fluctuations in the abundance of endangered species is a difficult ecological problem but a major requirement to attain effective management and conservation success. The ecological traits of large mammals make this task even more complicated, calling for integrative approaches. We develop a framework combining individual-based modelling and statistical inference to assess alternative hypotheses on brown bear dynamics in the Cantabrian range (Iberian Peninsula). Models including the effect of environmental factors on mortality rates were able to reproduce three decades of variation in the number of females with cubs of the year (Fcoy), including the decline that put the population close to extinction in the mid-nineties, and the following increase in brown bear numbers. This external effect prevailed over density-dependent mechanisms (sexually selected infanticide and female reproductive suppression), with a major impact of climate driven changes in resource availability and a secondary role of changes in human pressure. Predicted changes in population structure revealed a nonlinear relationship between total abundance and the number of Fcoy, highlighting the risk of simple projections based on indirect abundance indices. This study demonstrates the advantages of integrative, mechanistic approaches and provides a widely applicable framework to improve our understanding of wildlife dynamics. © 2016 The Author(s).

  8. Uterine fibroid embolisation: Initial experience in our local population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jawad, R.A.; Rehman, I.; Rana, A.I.; Tariq, N.; Tariq, N.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the results of uterine fibroid embolisation as a treatment option for symptomatic uterine fibroids in the local population. Methods: The retrospective study was done at the Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Shifa International Hospital, Islamabad, and comprised records of 12 patients with symptomatic uterine fibroids who had undergone uterine fibroid embolisation with the use of polyvinyl alcohol between May 2008 and July 2012. All of these patients had been assessed by a gynaecologist. Pre-embolisation workup was done by pelvic Magnetic Resonance Imaging. A detailed questionnaire was prepared to assess clinical improvement and interval change in fibroid size on follow-up imaging. Results: A technically successful embolisation was done in all patients. All patients experienced immediate post-procedure pain, but responded to conservative treatment. Clinical follow-up showed a significant reduction in symptoms within six months of the procedure, with 88% improvement in menorrhagia and 100% improvement in pain. Follow-up imaging showed reduction in fibroid sizes ranging from 17-63%. Two patients developed infection, which is a known complication of this procedure. Conclusion: Uterine fibroid embolisation is a well-recognised treatment option for symptomatic uterine fibroids. Ascertaining its long-term results in our local population will, however, require additional studies with larger patient populations. (author)

  9. Locally optimal extracellular stimulation for chaotic desynchronization of neural populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Dan; Moehlis, Jeff

    2014-10-01

    We use optimal control theory to design a methodology to find locally optimal stimuli for desynchronization of a model of neurons with extracellular stimulation. This methodology yields stimuli which lead to positive Lyapunov exponents, and hence desynchronizes a neural population. We analyze this methodology in the presence of interneuron coupling to make predictions about the strength of stimulation required to overcome synchronizing effects of coupling. This methodology suggests a powerful alternative to pulsatile stimuli for deep brain stimulation as it uses less energy than pulsatile stimuli, and could eliminate the time consuming tuning process.

  10. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  11. Estimating trends of population decline in long-lived marine species in the Mediterranean Sea based on fishers' perceptions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesc Maynou

    Full Text Available We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery. The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase. This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales were at very low levels in the second half of the 20(th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species.

  12. A method for investigating population declines of migratory birds using stable isotopes: origins of harvested lesser scaup in North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith A Hobson

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Elucidating geographic locations from where migratory birds are recruited into adult breeding populations is a fundamental but largely elusive goal in conservation biology. This is especially true for species that breed in remote northern areas where field-based demographic assessments are logistically challenging.Here we used hydrogen isotopes (deltaD to determine natal origins of migrating hatch-year lesser scaup (Aythya affinis harvested by hunters in the United States from all North American flyways during the hunting seasons of 1999-2000 (n = 412 and 2000-2001 (n = 455. We combined geospatial, observational, and analytical data sources, including known scaup breeding range, deltaD values of feathers from juveniles at natal sites, models of deltaD for growing-season precipitation, and scaup band-recovery data to generate probabilistic natal origin landscapes for individual scaup. We then used Monte Carlo integration to model assignment uncertainty from among individual deltaD variance estimates from birds of known molt origin and also from band-return data summarized at the flyway level. We compared the distribution of scaup natal origin with the distribution of breeding population counts obtained from systematic long-term surveys.Our analysis revealed that the proportion of young scaup produced in the northern (above 60 degrees N versus the southern boreal and Prairie-Parkland region was inversely related to the proportions of breeding adults using these regions, suggesting that despite having a higher relative abundance of breeding adults, the northern boreal region was less productive for scaup recruitment into the harvest than more southern biomes. Our approach for evaluating population declines of migratory birds (particularly game birds synthesizes all available distributional data and exploits the advantages of intrinsic isotopic markers that link individuals to geography.

  13. Morphometric and Phylogenic Analysis of Six Population Indonesian Local Goats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Batubara

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The research objectives were to characterize morphometric and genetic distance between populations of Indonesian local goats. The morphological discriminant and canonical analysis were carried out to estimate the phylogenic relationship and determine the discriminant variable between Benggala goats (n= 96, Marica (n= 60, Jawarandu (n= 94, (Kacang (n= 217, Muara (n= 30 and Samosir (n= 42. Discriminant analysis used to clasify body weight and body measurements. In the analysis of variance showed that body weight and body measurement (body length, height at withers, thorax width, thorax height, hert girth, skull width and height, tail length and width, ear length and width of Muara goats was higher (P<0.05 compared to the other groups, and the lowest was in Marica goats. The smallest genetic distance was between Marica and Samosir (11.207 and the highest were between Muara and Benggala (255.110. The highest similarity between individual within population was found in Kacang (99.28% and the lowest in Samosir (82.50%. The canonical analysis showed high correlation on canon circumference, body weight, skull width, skull height, and tail width variables so these six variables can be used as distinguishing variables among population. The result from Mahalonobis distance for phenogram tree and canonical analysis showed that six populations of Indonesian local goats were divided into six breed of goats: the first was Muara, the second was Jawarandu, the third was Kacang, the fourth was Benggala, the fifth was Samosir and the sixth was Marica goats. The diversity of body size and body weight of goats was observed quite large, so the chances of increasing productivity could be made through selection and mating programs.

  14. Ancient and contemporary DNA reveal a pre-human decline but no population bottleneck associated with recent human persecution in the kea (Nestor notabilis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Dussex

    Full Text Available The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis. Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000-5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410, historical (n = 15 and fossil samples (n = 4 showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 - 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines.

  15. Ancient and contemporary DNA reveal a pre-human decline but no population bottleneck associated with recent human persecution in the kea (Nestor notabilis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J; Robertson, Bruce C

    2015-01-01

    The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000-5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 - 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines.

  16. Ancient and Contemporary DNA Reveal a Pre-Human Decline but No Population Bottleneck Associated with Recent Human Persecution in the Kea (Nestor notabilis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Robertson, Bruce C.

    2015-01-01

    The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000–5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 – 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines. PMID:25719752

  17. Decline in Mycobacterium bovis and Brucella abortus populations during the maturation of experimentally contaminated parmesan-type cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina Ramirez Starikoff

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian legislation allows the manufacture of raw milk cheese with a maturation exceeding 60 days at room temperature above 5°C, but there is a lack of solid scientific evidence on the efficacy of this maturation process in inactivating important pathogens that may be present in milk, such as Mycobacterium bovis and Brucella abortus. Thus, the objectives of this study were to produce parmesan-type cheese experimentally contaminated with M. bovis and B. abortus and evaluate the survival of these pathogens along 2-month maturation. Parmesan-type cheese was manufactured in the laboratory using whole pasteurized milk with or without inoculation with M. bovis (SB1033 or B. abortus (1119-3 and matured at 18°C for up to 63 days. M. bovis was inoculated in Stonebrink-Leslie medium supplemented with antibiotics and incubated at 37°C for 45 days, and B. abortus was incubated in Farrel medium at 36°C for 3 days. The average D18°C value, weighted by variance, was 37.5 ± 5.3 days for M. bovis and 5.9 ± 0.7 days for B. abortus. The average physicochemical parameters in the cheese at the end of the study were as follows: pH = 4.89, water activity = 0.976, and moisture percentage = 43.1%. The pH might have contributed to the reduction in the population of B. abortus but seems not to have influenced the population of M. bovis. We conclude that the duration of the maturation process influences the size of the surviving populations of M. bovis and B. abortus, and that the shortening of the maturation duration might not ensure a decline in pathogen levels to safe levels. Thus, complementary studies considering the effect of several other technological aspects on the survival of these pathogens are required, including the effect of the lactic acid bacterial population, salt content, and temperature of maturation.

  18. Evolution of zygotic linkage disequilibrium in a finite local population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-Sheng Hu

    Full Text Available One crucial feature of zygotic linkage disequilibrium (LD analysis is its direct use of diploid genotyping data, irrespective of the type of mating system. Previous theories from an evolutionary perspective mainly focus on gametic LD, but the equivalent development for zygotic LD is not available. Here I study the evolution of zygotic LD and the covariances between gametic and zygotic LDs or between distinct zygotic LDs in a finite local population under constant immigration from a continent population. I derive the analytical theory under genetic hitchhiking effects or in a neutral process. Results indicate that zygotic LDs (diploid level are more informative than gametic LD (haploid level in indicating the effects of different evolutionary forces. Zygotic LDs may be greater than or comparable to gametic LD under the epistatic selection process, but smaller than gametic LD under the non epistatic selection process. The covariances between gametic and zygotic LDs are strongly affected by the mating system, linkage distance, and genetic drift effects, but weakly affected by seed and pollen flow and natural selection. The covariances between different zygotic LDs are generally robust to the effects of gene flow, selection, and linkage distance, but sensitive to the effects of genetic drift and mating system. Consistent patterns exist for the covariances between the zygotic LDs for the two-locus genotypes with one common genotype at one locus or without any common genotype at each locus. The results highlight that zygotic LDs can be applied to detecting natural population history.

  19. Genetic consequences of population decline in the European otter ( Lutra lutra ) : an assessment of microsatellite DNA variation in Danish otters from 1883 to 1993

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pertoldi, C.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Loeschcke, V.

    2001-01-01

    alleles, suggested that a drastic long-term population decline has taken place, which could have started more than 2000 years ago, possibly due to ancient anthropogenic pressure. Finally, assignment tests and pairwise F-ST values suggested weak but statistically significant genetic differentiation between......The European otter (Lutra lutra) was common in Denmark until the 1960s, but its present distribution encompasses only a minor part of the country. The aim of this study was to assess whether the recent population decline has resulted in loss of genetic variability and to gain further insight...

  20. Breeding ecology of the southern shrike, Lanius meridionalis, in an agrosystem of south–eastern Spain: the surprisingly excellent breeding success in a declining population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreno-Rueda, G.; Abril-Colon, I.; Lopez-Orta, A.; Alvarez-Benito, I.; Castillo-Gomez, C.; Comas, M.; Rivas, J.M.

    2016-07-01

    The southern shrike, Lanius meridionalis, is declining at the Spanish and European level. One cause of this decline could be low reproductive success due to low availability of prey in agricultural environments. To investigate this possibility we analysed the breeding ecology of a population of southern shrike in an agrosystem in Lomas de Padul (SE Spain). Our results suggest the population is declining in this area. However, contrary to expectations, the population showed the highest reproductive success (% nests in which at least one egg produces a fledgling) reported for this species to date (83.3%), with a productivity of 4.04 fledglings per nest. Reproductive success varied throughout the years, ranging from 75% in the worst year to 92.9% in the best year. Similarly, productivity ranged from 3.25 to 5.0 fledglings per nest depending on the year. Other aspects of reproductive biology, such as clutch size, brood size, and nestling diet, were similar to those reported in other studies. Based on these results, we hypothesise that the determinant of population decline acts on the juvenile fraction, drastically reducing the recruitment rate, or affecting the dispersion of adults and recruits. Nevertheless, the exact factor or factors are unknown. This study shows that a high reproductive success does not guarantee good health status of the population. (Author)

  1. The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2018-01-01

    Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

  2. Foraging habitat quality constrains effectiveness of artificial nest-site provisioning in reversing population declines in a colonial cavity nester.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inês Catry

    Full Text Available Among birds, breeding numbers are mainly limited by two resources of major importance: food supply and nest-site availability. Here, we investigated how differences in land-use and nest-site availability affected the foraging behaviour, breeding success and population trends of the colonial cavity-dependent lesser kestrel Falco naumanni inhabiting two protected areas. Both areas were provided with artificial nests to increase nest-site availability. The first area is a pseudo-steppe characterized by traditional extensive cereal cultivation, whereas the second area is a previous agricultural zone now abandoned or replaced by forested areas. In both areas, lesser kestrels selected extensive agricultural habitats, such as fallows and cereal fields, and avoided scrubland and forests. In the second area, tracked birds from one colony travelled significantly farther distances (6.2 km ± 1.7 vs. 1.8 km ± 0.4 and 1.9 km ± 0.6 and had significant larger foraging-ranges (144 km(2 vs. 18.8 and 14.8 km(2 when compared to the birds of two colonies in the extensive agricultural area. Longer foraging trips were reflected in lower chick feeding rates, lower fledging success and reduced chick fitness. Availability and occupation of artificial nests was high in both areas but population followed opposite trends, with a positive increment recorded exclusively in the first area with a large proportion of agricultural areas. Progressive habitat loss around the studied colony in the second area (suitable habitat decreased from 32% in 1990 to only 7% in 2002 is likely the main driver of the recorded population decline and suggests that the effectiveness of bird species conservation based on nest-site provisioning is highly constrained by habitat quality in the surrounding areas. Therefore, the conservation of cavity-dependent species may be enhanced firstly by finding the best areas of remaining habitat and secondly by increasing the carrying capacity of high

  3. Metabolic syndrome but not obesity measures are risk factors for accelerated age-related glomerular filtration rate decline in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, Vidar T N; Schei, Jørgen; Solbu, Marit D; Jenssen, Trond G; Melsom, Toralf; Eriksen, Bjørn O

    2018-05-01

    Rapid age-related glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline increases the risk of end-stage renal disease, and a low GFR increases the risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease. High body mass index and the metabolic syndrome are well-known risk factors for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease, but their role in accelerating age-related GFR decline independent of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and diabetes is not adequately understood. We studied body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and metabolic syndrome as risk factors for accelerated GFR decline in 1261 middle-aged people representative of the general population without diabetes, cardiovascular disease or kidney disease. GFR was measured as iohexol clearance at baseline and repeated after a median of 5.6 years. Metabolic syndrome was defined as fulfilling three out of five criteria, based on waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides. The mean GFR decline rate was 0.95 ml/min/year. Neither the body mass index, waist circumference nor waist-hip ratio predicted statistically significant changes in age-related GFR decline, but individuals with baseline metabolic syndrome had a significant mean of 0.30 ml/min/year faster decline than individuals without metabolic syndrome in a multivariable adjusted linear regression model. This association was mainly driven by the triglyceride criterion of metabolic syndrome, which was associated with a significant 0.36 ml/min/year faster decline when analyzed separately. Results differed significantly when GFR was estimated using creatinine and/or cystatin C. Thus, metabolic syndrome, but not the body mass index, waist circumference or waist-hip ratio, is an independent risk factor for accelerated age-related GFR decline in the general population. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Local population and regional environmental drivers of cholera in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Escamilla Veronica

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Regional environmental factors have been shown to be related to cholera. Previous work in Bangladesh found that temporal patterns of cholera are positively related to satellite-derived environmental variables including ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC. Methods This paper investigates whether local socio-economic status (SES modifies the effect of regional environmental forces. The study area is Matlab, Bangladesh, an area of approximately 200,000 people with an active health and demographic surveillance system. Study data include (1 spatially-referenced demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the population; (2 satellite-derived variables for sea surface temperature (SST, sea surface height (SSH, and OCC; and (3 laboratory confirmed cholera case data for the entire population. Relationships between cholera, the environmental variables, and SES are measured using generalized estimating equations with a logit link function. Additionally two separate seasonal models are built because there are two annual cholera epidemics, one pre-monsoon, and one post-monsoon. Results SES has a significant impact on cholera occurrence: the higher the SES score, the lower the occurrence of cholera. There is a significant negative association between cholera incidence and SSH during the pre-monsoon period but not for the post-monsoon period. OCC is positively associated with cholera during the pre-monsoon period but not for the post-monsoon period. SST is not related to cholera incidence. Conclusions Overall, it appears cholera is influenced by regional environmental variables during the pre-monsoon period and by local-level variables (e.g., water and sanitation during the post-monsoon period. In both pre- and post-monsoon seasons, SES significantly influences these patterns, likely because it is a proxy for poor water quality and sanitation in poorer households.

  5. Hydroperiod and cattle use associated with lower recruitment in an r-selected amphibian with a declining population trend in the Klamath Mountains, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esther M. Cole; Rosemary Hartman; Malcolm P. North

    2016-01-01

    Recent population declines in amphibians associated with mortality in early life stages highlight the need for a better understanding of the environmental factors related to successful survival to metamorphosis. In our study, we closely examine the relative importance of environmental factors to three stages of recruitment for Cascade frogs (Rana cascadae...

  6. Amphibian populations in the terrestrial environment: Is there evidence of declines of terrestrial forest amphibians in northwestern California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwell H. Welsh Jr.; Gary M. Fellers; Amy J. Lind

    2007-01-01

    Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide; however the vast majority are species associated with aquatic habitats. Information on the status and trends of terrestrial amphibians is almost entirely lacking. Here we use data collected across a 12-yr period (sampling from 1984–86 and from 1993–95) to address the question of whether evidence exists for declines...

  7. Fractures as an independent predictor of functional decline in older people: a population-based study with an 8-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piirtola, Maarit; Löppönen, Minna; Vahlberg, Tero; Isoaho, Raimo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Räihä, Ismo

    2012-01-01

    Fractures among older people are common, but there is scant evidence about the impact of fractures on functional decline in an unselected older population. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of lower and upper body fractures on functional performance among older adults during an 8-year follow-up. A population-based cohort of 616 Finnish persons aged 65 and over was followed for up to 8 years, and the association between fractures and the risk of short-term (0-2 years) and long-term (up to 8 years) functional decline was analyzed. Fractures were categorized according their functional influence on mobility and activities of daily living (ADL) into lower and upper body fractures. Multivariate cumulative logistic regression model was used in the analyses. During the 8-year follow-up, 112 (18%) persons sustained at least one fracture. In the multivariate analyses, lower body fractures predicted both short-term and long-term decline in mobility [cumulative odds ratio (COR) 4.7, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.9-11.7 and COR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6.2, respectively] and in ADL performance (COR 3.1, 95% CI 1.3-7.6 and COR 4.7, 95% CI 2.0-11.4, respectively). Upper body fractures predicted decline in ADL performance during the long-term follow-up (COR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3-4.8). Pre-fracture functional decline and inactivity in leisure time physical exercise were independently associated with the risk of decline in extensive activities. Fractures have an independent influence on the development of functional decline in older persons regardless of the pre-fracture health. Prevention of falls and fractures and improvement of treatment, rehabilitation and follow-up process after fractures are needed. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  8. Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

  9. The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

    2002-01-01

    This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

  10. Significant decline in case fatality after acute myocardial infarction in Denmark--a population-based study from 1994 to 2001

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildstrom, Steen Z; Rasmussen, Søren; Madsen, Mette

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: We evaluated trends in in-hospital case fatality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Denmark and analysed changes in the hospitalization rate for AMI. DESIGN: National population-based registries were used to identify patients (> or =30 years) who were admitted for their first AMI...... from 1994 to 2001. RESULTS: The annual relative decline in case-fatality rate was constant at 10.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.5-11.5%). The decline was similar for both genders at all ages. The hospitalization rate decreased from 1994 to 1999 at an annual average of 4.3% (95% CI 3.......4-5.1%). In 2000 and 2001 the average annual increase was 7-8%. CONCLUSION: The case-fatality rate after AMI declined significantly in Denmark, similar to other Western countries, but the level is still higher than that of the USA. The increasing hospitalization rate coincided with changes in risk factors...

  11. Regular physical activity modifies smoking-related lung function decline and reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Aymerich, J; Lange, Peter; Benet, M

    2007-01-01

    RATIONALE: We have previously reported that regular physical activity reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation. We hypothesized that higher levels of regular physical activity could reduce the risk of COPD by modifying smoking-related lung function decline....... OBJECTIVE: To estimate the longitudinal association between regular physical activity and FEV(1) and FVC decline and COPD risk. METHODS: A population-based sample (n = 6,790) was recruited and assessed with respect to physical activity, smoking, lung function, and other covariates, in Copenhagen in 1981....../yr of FEV(1), P-for-trend = 0.006, and +2.6 and +7.7 ml/yr of FVC, P-for-trend function decline. Active smokers with moderate to high physical activity had...

  12. The recent decline of Montastraea annularis (complex coral populations in western Curaçao: a cause for concern?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. W Bruckner

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Shallow leeward reefs off the western end of Curaçao are dominated by extensive populations of M. annularis (complex. These species are larger in size (mean= 66 cm diameter than all other species, with few small colonies (10 cm observed within transects, and most exhibited low levels of partial mortality (mean= 22.5%. These species were less abundant (38% of all colonies in 2005. Partial mortality among live colonies of M. annularis and M. faveolata increased by 85% (mean = 42% partial mortality and numerous dead colonies of M. faveolata and M. annularis were observed; M. franksi colonies were generally in excellent condition (14% partial tissue mortality. A high prevalence of coral diseases (3-30% was documented among M. annularis and M. faveolata, while all other species were less frequently affected. Yellow band disease (YBD emerged shortly after the 1995 bleaching event, and rapidly spread throughout all depths, with the highest prevalence between 1997-1999. YBD caused slow rates of mortality (=1 cm/month, but multiple focal lesions appeared on individual colonies, and these progressively radiated outward as they killed the colonies. By 2005, 44% of the tagged corals were dead; the remainder exhibited active YBD infections (21% or were in remission (31.6% but were missing on average >90% of their tissue. Although the incidence of YBD has declined since 2000, white plague (WP prevalence was unusually high (4-12% in 2001 and 2005, with affected colonies exhibiting recent mortality of up to 70%. Dead Montastraea spp. surfaces are being colonized by other corals, including poritids, agaricids, and other faviids, while recruits of M. annularis (complex are absent. If diseases and other biotic stressors persist on these reefs, M. annularis and M. faveolata populations may undergo a decline similar to that observed in the 1980s among Caribbean acroporids. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54 (Suppl. 3: 45- 58. Epub 2007 Jan. 15.Los arrecifes someros a sotavento

  13. Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations

    OpenAIRE

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G.

    2009-01-01

    Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 7...

  14. Decline in Physical Function and Risk for Elder Abuse Reported to Social Services in a Community-Dwelling Population of Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa; Evans, Denis

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Elder abuse is an important public health and human rights issue and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to examine the longitudinal association between decline in physical function and the risk for elder abuse. Design Prospective population-based study Setting Geographically defined community in Chicago. Participants Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP) is a population-based study (N=6,159), and we identified 143 CHAP participants who had elder abuse reported to social services agency from 1993–2010. Participants The primary independent variable was objectively assessed physical function using decline in physical performance testing (Tandem stand, measured walk and chair stand). Secondary independent variables were assessed using the decline in self-reported Katz, Nagi, and Rosow-Breslau scales. Outcomes were reported and confirmed elder abuse and specific subtypes of elder abuse (physical, psychological, caregiver neglect and financial exploitation). Logistic regression models were used to assess the association of decline in physical function measures and risk for elder abuse. Results After adjusting for potential confounders, every 1 point decline in physical performance testing (OR, 1.13(1.06–1.19)), Katz impairment (OR, 1.29(1.15–1.45)), Nagi impairment (OR, 1.30(1.13–1.49)) and Rosow Breslau impairment (OR, 1.42(1.15–1.74)) were associated with increased risk for elder abuse. Lowest tertiles of physical performance testing (OR, 4.92 (1.39–17.46), highest tertiles of Katz impairment (OR, 3.99 (2.18–7.31), Nagi impairment (OR, 2.37 (1.08–5.23), and Rosow Breslau impairment (2.85 (1.39–5.84) were associated with increased risk for elder abuse. Conclusion Decline in objectively assessed physical function and self-reported physical function are associated with increased risk for elder abuse. PMID:23002901

  15. The Nordic Prudent Diet Reduces Risk of Cognitive Decline in the Swedish Older Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behnaz Shakersain

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Appropriate dietary pattern for preserving cognitive function in northern Europe remains unknown. We aimed to identify a Nordic dietary pattern index associated with slower cognitive decline compared to the Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay, Mediterranean Diet, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, and Baltic Sea Diet indices. A total of 2223 dementia-free adults aged ≥60 were followed for 6 years. Mini-Mental State Examination was administrated at baseline and follow-ups. Dietary intake was assessed by 98-item food frequency questionnaire, and the Nordic Prudent Dietary Pattern (NPDP was identified. Data were analysed using mixed-effects and parametric survival models and receiver operating characteristic curves with adjustment for potential confounders. Moderate (β = 0.139, 95% CI 0.077−0.201 and high adherence (β = 0.238, 95% CI 0.175−0.300 to NPDP were associated with less cognitive decline compared to other four indices. High adherence to NPDP was also associated with the lowest risk of MMSE decline to ≤24 (HR = 0.176, 95% CI 0.080−0.386 and had the greatest ability to predict such decline (area under the curve = 0.70. Moderate-to-high adherence to the NPDP may predict a better-preserved cognitive function among older adults in Nordic countries. Regional dietary habits should be considered in developing dietary guidelines for the prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia.

  16. The Nordic Prudent Diet Reduces Risk of Cognitive Decline in the Swedish Older Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakersain, Behnaz; Rizzuto, Debora; Larsson, Susanna C; Faxén-Irving, Gerd; Fratiglioni, Laura; Xu, Wei-Li

    2018-02-17

    Appropriate dietary pattern for preserving cognitive function in northern Europe remains unknown. We aimed to identify a Nordic dietary pattern index associated with slower cognitive decline compared to the Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay, Mediterranean Diet, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, and Baltic Sea Diet indices. A total of 2223 dementia-free adults aged ≥60 were followed for 6 years. Mini-Mental State Examination was administrated at baseline and follow-ups. Dietary intake was assessed by 98-item food frequency questionnaire, and the Nordic Prudent Dietary Pattern (NPDP) was identified. Data were analysed using mixed-effects and parametric survival models and receiver operating characteristic curves with adjustment for potential confounders. Moderate (β = 0.139, 95% CI 0.077-0.201) and high adherence (β = 0.238, 95% CI 0.175-0.300) to NPDP were associated with less cognitive decline compared to other four indices. High adherence to NPDP was also associated with the lowest risk of MMSE decline to ≤24 (HR = 0.176, 95% CI 0.080-0.386) and had the greatest ability to predict such decline (area under the curve = 0.70). Moderate-to-high adherence to the NPDP may predict a better-preserved cognitive function among older adults in Nordic countries. Regional dietary habits should be considered in developing dietary guidelines for the prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia.

  17. Culturable bacterial populations associated with ectomycorrhizae of Norway spruce stands with different degrees of decline in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Avidano, L.; Rinaldi, M.; Gindro, R.; Cudlín, Pavel; Martinotti, M G.; Fracchia, L.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 1 (2010), s. 52-64 ISSN 0008-4166 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Ectomycorrhizae * Norway spruce * forest decline Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 1.235, year: 2010

  18. The catastrophic decline of the Sumatran rhino (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in Sabah: Historic exploitation, reduced female reproductive performance and population viability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kretzschmar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The reasons for catastrophic declines of Sumatran rhinos are far from clear and data necessary to improve decisions for conservation management are often lacking. We reviewed literature and assembled a comprehensive data set on surveys of the Sumatran rhino subspecies (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in the Malaysian state of Sabah on Borneo to chart the historical development of the population in Sabah and its exploitation until the present day. We fitted resource selection functions to identify habitat features preferred by a remnant population of rhinos living in the Tabin Wildlife Reserve in Sabah, and ran a series of population viability analyses (PVAs to extract the key demographic parameters most likely to affect population dynamics. We show that as preferred habitat, the individuals in the reserve were most likely encountered in elevated areas away from roads, in close distance to mud-volcanoes, with a low presence of human trespassers and a wallow on site, and within a neighbourhood of dense forest and grassland patches preferably on Fluvisols and Acrisols. Our population viability analyses identified the percentage of breeding females and female lifetime reproductive period as the crucial parameters driving population dynamics, in combination with total protection even moderate improvements could elevate population viability substantially. The analysis also indicates that unrestrained hunting between 1930 and 1950 drastically reduced the historical rhino population in Sabah and that the remnant population could be rescued by combining the effort of total protection and stimulation of breeding activity. Based on our results, we recommend to translocate isolated reproductively healthy individuals to protected locations and to undertake measures to maximise conceptions, or running state-of-the-art reproductive management with assisted reproduction techniques. Our study demonstrates that a judicious combination of techniques can do

  19. Using local ecological knowledge to assess morel decline in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marla R. Emery; Elizabeth S. Barron

    2010-01-01

    Morels (Morchella spp.) are prized wild edible mushrooms. In the United States, morels are the focus of family traditions, local festivals, mycological society forays, and social media, as well as substantial commercial trade. A majority of the anglophone research on morels has been conducted in Europe and in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Midwest....

  20. The impact of birth weight on the level of lung function and lung function decline in the general adult population. The Inter99 study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumann, Sophie; Godtfredsen, Nina Skavlan; Lange, Peter

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an association between low birth weight and low adult lung function, but findings have not been consistent. The aim of this study was to investigate whether birth weight is associated with both the level and the decline in adult lung function in general...... population. METHODS: The Danish Inter99 study is a population-based intervention study in adults aged 30-60 years, providing information on birth weight and lung function on 4428 participants. Of these, 2931 participants performed spirometry at baseline and at five-year follow-up. Multiple linear regression...... models were used to examine the association between birth weight and forced expiratory volume in first second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) and age-related decline in these variables. Analyses were conducted stepwise including sex, age, adult height, abdominal circumference, birth height, mother...

  1. Brain Amyloid Deposition and Longitudinal Cognitive Decline in Nondemented Older Subjects: Results from a Multi-Ethnic Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yian Gu

    Full Text Available We aimed to whether the abnormally high amyloid-β (Aβ level in the brain among apparently healthy elders is related with subtle cognitive deficits and/or accelerated cognitive decline.A total of 116 dementia-free participants (mean age 84.5 years of the Washington Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project completed 18F-Florbetaben PET imaging. Positive or negative cerebral Aβ deposition was assessed visually. Quantitative cerebral Aβ burden was calculated as the standardized uptake value ratio in pre-established regions of interest using cerebellar cortex as the reference region. Cognition was determined using a neuropsychological battery and selected tests scores were combined into four composite scores (memory, language, executive/speed, and visuospatial using exploratory factor analysis. We examined the relationship between cerebral Aβ level and longitudinal cognition change up to 20 years before the PET scan using latent growth curve models, controlling for age, education, ethnicity, and Apolipoprotein E (APOE genotype.Positive reading of Aβ was found in 41 of 116 (35% individuals. Cognitive scores at scan time was not related with Aβ. All cognitive scores declined over time. Aβ positive reading (B = -0.034, p = 0.02 and higher Aβ burden in temporal region (B = -0.080, p = 0.02 were associated with faster decline in executive/speed. Stratified analyses showed that higher Aβ deposition was associated with faster longitudinal declines in mean cognition, language, and executive/speed in African-Americans or in APOE ε4 carriers, and with faster memory decline in APOE ε4 carriers. The associations remained significant after excluding mild cognitive impairment participants.High Aβ deposition in healthy elders was associated with decline in executive/speed in the decade before neuroimaging, and the association was observed primarily in African-Americans and APOE ε4 carriers. Our results suggest that measuring cerebral Aβ may give us

  2. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline

    KAUST Repository

    Vignaud, Thomas M.; Maynard, Jeffrey Allen; Leblois, Raphaë l; Meekan, Mark G.; Vá zquez-Juá rez, Ricardo; Ramí rez-Mací as, Dení ; Pierce, Simon J.; Rowat, David; Berumen, Michael L.; Beeravolu, Champak R.; Baksay, Sandra; Planes, Serge

    2014-01-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks

  3. Hotspots of human-induced biomass productivity decline and their social-ecological types toward supporting national policy and local studies on combating land degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Quyet Manh; Le, Quang Bao; Vlek, Paul L. G.

    2014-10-01

    Identification and social-ecological characterization of areas that experience high levels of persistent productivity decline are essential for planning appropriate management measures. Although land degradation is mainly induced by human actions, the phenomenon is concurrently influenced by global climate changes that need to be taken into account in land degradation assessments. This study aims to delineate the geographic hotspots of human-induced land degradation in the country and classify the social-ecological characterizations of each specific degradation hotspot type. The research entailed a long-term time-series (1982-2006) of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index to specify the extents of areas with significant biomass decline or increase in Vietnam. Annual rainfall and temperature time-series were then used to separate areas of human-induced biomass productivity decline from those driven by climate dynamics. Next, spatial cluster analyses identified social-ecological types of degradation for guiding further investigations at regional and local scales. The results show that about 19% of the national land mass experienced persistent declines in biomass productivity over the last 25 years. Most of the degraded areas are found in the Southeast and Mekong River Delta (17,984 km2), Northwest Mountains (14,336 km2), and Central Highlands (13,504 km2). We identified six and five social-ecological types of degradation hotspots in agricultural and forested zones, respectively. Constraints in soil nutrient availability and nutrient retention capability are widely spreading in all degradation hotspot types. These hotspot types are different from each other in social and ecological conditions, suggesting that region-specific strategies are needed for the formulation of land degradation combating policy.

  4. Declining prevalence of pulmonary paragonimiasis following treatment & community education in a remote tribal population of Arunachal Pradesh, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narain, Kanwar; Devi, K Rekha; Bhattacharya, S; Negmu, K; Rajguru, S K; Mahanta, Jagadish

    2015-05-01

    In India, human pulmonary paragonimiasis is an important public health problem in the northeastern (NE) region. In 2005 we reported a hyperendemic focus of paragonimiasis in a remote tribal village in the hills of Changlang district in Arunachal Pradesh. The community was made aware of the disease and all active cases were treated. This study was aimed to assess the decline in the prevelance of paragonimiasis in the same area after a re-survey done in 2011 after a gap of six years. Re-surveys were carried to determine the reduction in the prevalence of paragonimiasis. Community education was given to the villagers to raise their awareness about paragonimiasis. A total of 624 individuals including 301 children (age 15 yr) were included in the study. Sputum and stool samples were examined for eggs of lung flukes. Serum samples were screened for IgG antibodies against lung fluke antigen by ELISA. A significant (P 31 yr, the decline in prevalence was from 15.3 to 3.7 per cent. Gender-wise analysis revealed that the decline in ELISA positivity was similar in both genders and fell down from 33.9 to 11.5 per cent in males and from 29.8 to 10.7 per cent in females. Similarly, there was a significant decline rate in egg positivity also. The strategy of hotspot targeted active paragonimiasis case detection and treatment of infected cases together with community education appears to be feasible methods to achieve control of paragonimiasis in this region.

  5. Studying the Stellar Populations of the Local Group with VLT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolstoy, Eline

    The best chance we have to understand star formation and how it proceeds in the Universe is going to come from detailed studies of the numerous different environments found within the Local Group (LG). Present day star formation in our Galaxy occurs exclusively in metal rich environments (Z ˜ Z_⊙), so if we want to study how low metallicity stars form (and thus understand observations of galaxies at high-redshift) we have to look beyond our Galaxy, to the smallest star forming dwarf galaxies, which can have extremely low metallicities (Z ˜ 0.02-0.05Z_⊙). Of course in its entirety a stellar population always contains the complete details of the star formation history of a galaxy, however this information is often hard to disentangle retroactively. We also have much to learn from the Magellanic Clouds (Z ˜ 0.1- 0.3Z_⊙), although because they are undergoing interactions with our Galaxy and each other their evolutionary picture and its general applicability less obvious. In our LG there are also a number of "remnants", or galaxies which which currently do not form stars (e.g. the dSph, such as Carina, Leo I, Ursa Minor, etc..). It is not straight forward to draw parallels between galaxies which are forming stars and those which aren't. This is of course because star formation has such a dramatic impact upon a galaxy, and alternative methods have to be used to make the most basic of comparisons of properties (e.g. metallicity, mass, luminosity evolution). It is necessary to put all the dwarf galaxies into a global picture if we are to draw meaningful conclusions about their star formation properties (e.g. Ferrara & Tolstoy 1999). Many of the small LG galaxies contain direct evidence of complicated star formation histories (e.g. Smecker-Hane et al. 1994; Tolstoy et al. 1998; Gallart et al. 1999), which suggests that star formation patterns can change dramatically over long time scales. This kind of evolutionary behaviour can have a dramatic impact upon the

  6. A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

    2014-01-01

    We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

  7. Ecological and population genetics of locally rare plants: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon A. Lei

    2001-01-01

    Plant species with limited dispersal ability, narrow geographical and physiological tolerance ranges, as well as with specific habitat and ecological requirements are likely to be rare. Small and isolated populations and species contain low levels of within-population genetic variation in many plant species. The gene pool of plants is a product of phenotype-environment...

  8. Extreme sub-wavelength atom localization via coherent population trapping

    OpenAIRE

    Agarwal, Girish S.; Kapale, Kishore T.

    2005-01-01

    We demonstrate an atom localization scheme based on monitoring of the atomic coherences. We consider atomic transitions in a Lambda configuration where the control field is a standing wave field. The probe field and the control field produce coherence between the two ground states. We show that this coherence has the same fringe pattern as produced by a Fabry-Perot interferometer and thus measurement of the atomic coherence would localize the atom. Interestingly enough the role of the cavity ...

  9. Failure to Respond to Food Resource Decline Has Catastrophic Consequences for Koalas in a High-Density Population in Southern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desley A Whisson

    Full Text Available Understanding the ability of koalas to respond to changes in their environment is critical for conservation of the species and their habitat. We monitored the behavioural response of koalas to declining food resources in manna gum (Eucalyptus viminalis woodland at Cape Otway, Victoria, Australia, from September 2011 to November 2013. Over this period, koala population density increased from 10.1 to 18.4 koalas.ha-1. As a result of the high browsing pressure of this population, manna gum canopy condition declined with 71.4% manna gum being completely or highly defoliated in September 2013. Despite declining food resources, radio collared koalas (N = 30 exhibited high fidelity to small ranges (0.4-1.2 ha. When trees became severely defoliated in September 2013, koalas moved relatively short distances from their former ranges (mean predicted change in range centroid = 144 m and remained in areas of 0.9 to 1.0 ha. This was despite the high connectivity of most manna gum woodland, and close proximity of the study site (< 3 km to the contiguous mixed forest of the Great Otway National Park. Limited movement had catastrophic consequences for koalas with 71% (15/21 of radio collared koalas dying from starvation or being euthanased due to their poor condition between September and November 2013.

  10. Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the Intermountain Province of the Columbia Basin, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wielgus, Robert B.; Shipley, Lisa

    2002-07-01

    Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the subbasins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are not ranked as target species and are believed to be increasing throughout the basin because of habitat changes brought about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated ''press'' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM subbasins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend

  11. Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the IM Province of the Columbia Basin, Annual Report 2002-2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wielgus, Robert; Shipley, Lisa; Myers, Woodrow

    2003-09-01

    Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the sub basins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are believed to be increasing throughout the basin because of habitat changes brought about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated 'press' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM sub basins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend indices. Predation rates and population growth rates

  12. Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-01-07

    Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

  13. Predisposition to bark beetle attack by root herbivores and associated pathogens: Roles in forest decline, gap formation, and persistence of endemic bark beetle populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aukema, Brian H.; Zhu, Jun; Møller, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    , however, due to the requirement of long-term monitoring and high degrees of spatial and temporal covariance. We censused more than 2700 trees annually over 7 years, and at the end of 17 years, in a mature red pine plantation. Trees were measured for the presence of bark beetles and wood borers that breed...... within the primary stem, root weevils that breed in root collars, and bark beetles that breed in basal stems. We quantify the sequence of events that drive this decline syndrome, with the primary emergent pattern being an interaction between below- and above-ground herbivores and their fungal symbionts......, and elevated temperature slightly accentuates this effect. New gaps can arise from such trees as they subsequently become epicenters for the full complex of organisms associated with this decline, but this is not common. As Ips populations rise, there is some element of positive feedback...

  14. Declining Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater populations are associated with landscape-specific reductions in brood parasitism and increases in songbird productivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W Andrew Cox

    Full Text Available Many songbird species have experienced significant population declines, partly because of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater, which is positively associated with increasing landscape forest cover in the midwestern United States. However, cowbirds are also experiencing long-term population declines, which should reduce parasitism pressure and thus increase productivity of host species. We used 20 years of nest monitoring data from five sites in Missouri across a gradient of landscape forest cover to assess temporal trends in the rate and intensity of brood parasitism for Acadian Flycatchers (Empidonax virescens, Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea, and Northern Cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis. We evaluated whether there were concomitant changes in fledging brood size, nest survival, a combination of the two metrics (i.e., host young produced per nest attempt, and whether such changes were more substantial with decreasing landscape forest cover. Parasitism rates and intensities declined substantially during 1991-2010. Fledging brood size and nest survival rates were positively associated with landscape forest cover, confirming the fragmentation hypothesis for Midwest forest birds. Declining parasitism rates were associated with increased fledging brood sizes, with more pronounced increases as landscape forest cover decreased. Nest survival increased insubstantially across time during laying and incubation, but not during the nestling stage. The best predictor of nest survival was parasitism status, with parasitized nests surviving at lower rates than unparasitized nests. Overall, productivity increased during 1991-2010, with more pronounced increases associated with lower levels of landscape forest cover. The negative effects of cowbirds on nest survival in addition to fledging brood size in less forested landscapes suggest that cowbirds may be a primary cause of forest fragmentation effects on songbird productivity in the

  15. Are toxins from harmful algae a factor involved in the decline of harbour seal populations in Scotland?

    OpenAIRE

    Jensen, Silje-Kristin

    2015-01-01

    Firstly this study builds on the investigation initiated by Hall and Frame (2010), which found that Scottish harbour seals were exposed to domoic acid (DA), a potent natural neurotoxin produced by phytoplankton. Using the same sample collection technique to gather urine and faecal material from various populations around Scotland with differing population trajectories (Lonergan et al., 2007), the objective was to investigate not only exposure to DA, but also other groups of ...

  16. A draft de novo genome assembly for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus reveals evidence for a rapid decline in effective population size beginning in the Late Pleistocene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvette A Halley

    Full Text Available Wild populations of northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite have declined across nearly all of their U.S. range, and despite their importance as an experimental wildlife model for ecotoxicology studies, no bobwhite draft genome assembly currently exists. Herein, we present a bobwhite draft de novo genome assembly with annotation, comparative analyses including genome-wide analyses of divergence with the chicken (Gallus gallus and zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata genomes, and coalescent modeling to reconstruct the demographic history of the bobwhite for comparison to other birds currently in decline (i.e., scarlet macaw; Ara macao. More than 90% of the assembled bobwhite genome was captured within 14,000 unique genes and proteins. Bobwhite analyses of divergence with the chicken and zebra finch genomes revealed many extremely conserved gene sequences, and evidence for lineage-specific divergence of noncoding regions. Coalescent models for reconstructing the demographic history of the bobwhite and the scarlet macaw provided evidence for population bottlenecks which were temporally coincident with human colonization of the New World, the late Pleistocene collapse of the megafauna, and the last glacial maximum. Demographic trends predicted for the bobwhite and the scarlet macaw also were concordant with how opposing natural selection strategies (i.e., skewness in the r-/K-selection continuum would be expected to shape genome diversity and the effective population sizes in these species, which is directly relevant to future conservation efforts.

  17. Combining the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale and the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly to Improve Detection of Dementia in an Arabic-Speaking Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, T. Rune; Phung, Thien Kieu Thi; Chaaya, Monique

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess whether combining the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale (RUDAS) and Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) could improve diagnostic accuracy when screening for dementia in an Arabic-speaking population...... a significantly better area under the curve value compared to the RUDAS used alone. The 'weighted sum' method and the 'and' rule had the highest specificity, while the 'or' rule had the best sensitivity. CONCLUSION: Harnessing the RUDAS and IQCODE increased diagnostic accuracy when screening for dementia...

  18. Over-harvesting driven by consumer demand leads to population decline: big-leaf mahogany in South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    James Grogan; Arthur G. Blundell; R. Matthew Landis; Ani Youatt; Raymond E. Gullison; Martha Martinez; Roberto Kometter; Marco Lentini; Richard E. Rice

    2010-01-01

    Consumer demand for the premier neotropical luxury timber, big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla), has driven boom-and-bust logging cycles for centuries, depleting local and regional supplies from Mexico to Bolivia. We revise the standard historic range map for mahogany in South America and estimate the extent to which commercial stocks have been depleted using...

  19. Age-related olfactory decline is associated with the BDNF val66met polymorphism: evidence from a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margareta Hedner

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the effect of the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF val66met polymorphism on change in olfactory function in a large scale, longitudinal population-based sample (n=836. The subjects were tested on a 13 item force-choice odor identification test on two test occasions over a 5-year-interval. Sex, education, health-related factors, and semantic ability were controlled for in the statistical analyses. Results showed an interaction effect of age and BDNF val66met on olfactory change, such that the magnitude of olfactory decline in the older age cohort (70-90 years old at baseline was larger for the val homozygote carriers than for the met carriers. The older met carriers did not display larger age-related decline in olfactory function compared to the younger group. The BDNF val66met polymorphism did not affect the rate of decline in the younger age cohort (45-65 years. The findings are discussed in the light of the proposed roles of BDNF in neural development and maintenance.

  20. Trends in Modifiable Risk Factors Are Associated With Declining Incidence of Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Acute Coronary Heart Disease in a Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannsverk, Jan; Wilsgaard, Tom; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Rasmussen, Knut; Thelle, Dag S; Njølstad, Inger; Hopstock, Laila Arnesdatter; Bønaa, Kaare Harald

    2016-01-05

    Few studies have used individual person data to study whether contemporary trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease are associated with changes in modifiable coronary risk factors. We identified 29 582 healthy men and women ≥25 years of age who participated in 3 population surveys conducted between 1994 and 2008 in Tromsø, Norway. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for coronary heart disease overall, out-of-hospital sudden death, and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. We measured coronary risk factors at each survey and estimated the relationship between changes in risk factors and changes in incidence trends. A total of 1845 participants had an incident acute coronary heart disease event during 375 064 person-years of follow-up from 1994 to 2010. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of total coronary heart disease decreased by 3% (95% confidence interval, 2.0-4.0; Pcoronary risk factors accounted for 66% (95% confidence interval, 48-97; Pcoronary heart disease. Favorable changes in cholesterol contributed 32% to the decline, whereas blood pressure, smoking, and physical activity each contributed 14%, 13%, and 9%, respectively. We observed a substantial decline in the incidence of coronary heart disease that was driven by reductions in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in modifiable coronary risk factors accounted for 66% of the decline in coronary heart disease events. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  1. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a ...

  2. Using population segmentation to inform local obesity strategy in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Jane; Crichton, Nicola; Lorenc, Ava; Kelly, Muireann

    2015-09-01

    Little is known about the views of obese people and how best to meet their needs. Amongst London boroughs Barking and Dagenham has the highest prevalence of adult obesity at 28.7%; the lowest level of healthy eating and of physical activity; and is the 22nd most deprived area of England. The study aimed to gain insight into the attitudes, motivations and priorities of people who are obese or overweight to inform the social marketing of an obesity strategy. Two hundred and ten obese or overweight adults were recruited through visual identification in public thoroughfares to attempt to recruit those seldom seen in primary care. One hundred and eighty-one street-intercept and 52 in-depth interviews were conducted. Thematic analysis was followed by psychographic segmentation. Eleven population segments were identified based on their readiness to change, the value accorded to tackling obesity, identified enabling factors and barriers to weight management and perceived self-efficacy. This population showed considerable variation in its readiness to change and perceived control over obesity but considerable similarity in the exchange value they attributed to tackling their obesity. Even within a relatively homogenous socio-demographic community, there needs to be a range of interventions and messages tailored for different population segments that vary in their readiness to change and confidence about tackling obesity. The dominant emphasis of policy and practice on the health consequences of obesity does not reflect the priorities of this obese population for whom the exchange value of addressing obesity was daily functioning especially in relation to family life. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Further evidence of large-scale population decline and range contraction of the little owl Athene noctua in Central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chrenková, M.; Dobrý, M.; Šálek, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 66, č. 2 (2017), s. 106-116 ISSN 0139-7893 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : farmland birds * population trend * distribution * breeding places * agricultural buildings * conservation measures Subject RIV: EG - Zoology OBOR OECD: Zoology Impact factor: 0.739, year: 2016

  4. Brief Report: Anal Cancer in the HIV-Positive Population: Slowly Declining Incidence After a Decade of cART

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richel, Olivier; van der Zee, Ramon P.; Smit, Colette; de Vries, Henry J. C.; Prins, Jan M.

    2015-01-01

    We surveyed trends in incidence (1995-2012) and risk factors for anal cancer in the Dutch HIV-positive population. After an initial increase with a peak incidence in 2005-2006 of 114 [95% confidence interval (CI): 74 to 169] in all HIV+ patients and 168 (95% CI: 103 to 259) in HIV+ men who have sex

  5. PROTOPLANETARY DISK MASSES IN IC348: A RAPID DECLINE IN THE POPULATION OF SMALL DUST GRAINS AFTER 1 Myr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Nicholas; Williams, Jonathan P.; Cieza, Lucas A.

    2011-01-01

    We present a 1.3 mm continuum survey of protoplanetary disks in the 2-3 Myr old cluster, IC348, with the Submillimeter Array. We observed 85 young stellar objects and detected 10 with 1.3 mm fluxes greater than 2 mJy. The brightest source is a young embedded protostar driving a molecular outflow. The other nine detections are dusty disks around optically visible stars. Our millimeter flux measurements translate into total disk masses ranging from 2 to 6 Jupiter masses. Each detected disk has strong mid-infrared emission in excess of the stellar photosphere and has Hα equivalent widths larger than the average in the cluster and indicative of ongoing gas accretion. The disk mass distribution, however, is shifted by about a factor of 20 to lower masses, compared to that in the ∼1 Myr old Taurus and Ophiuchus regions. These observations reveal the rapid decline in the number of small dust grains in disks with time and probably their concomitant growth beyond millimeter sizes. Moreover, if IC348 is to form planets in the same proportion as detected in the field, these faint millimeter detections may represent the best candidates in the cluster to study the progression from planetesimals to planets.

  6. Defining population structure and genetic signatures of decline in the giant garter snake (Thamnophis gigas): implications for conserving threatened species within highly altered landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Dustin A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Hansen, Eric C.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Vandergast, Amy

    2015-01-01

    bottlenecks were detected in about half the populations we sampled, and effective population size estimates were well below recommended minimum thresholds to avoid inbreeding. Efforts focused on maintaining and enhancing existing wetlands to facilitate dispersal between basins and increase local effective population sizes may be critical for these otherwise isolated populations.

  7. a Study of the AGB in Local Group Bulge Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, R.

    1994-01-01

    We propose to survey the bolometric luminosities, colors, and space distribution of the most luminous asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the bulges of M31, M32, and M33. We seek to discover whether the bulges of these galaxies are relatively young, of order 10 Gyr rather than 15 Gyr. We will use WFPC2 and the R, I, and F1042M (1 micron) filters. Knowing that F1042M falls on the first continuum point of M giants, we have shown that we can use 1.04 micron fluxes to reliably calculate bolometric magnitudes for these very red stars. Color information from R and I will permit (1) comparison with Galactic bulge M giants, (2) an estimate of the spread of abundance and (3) increase the accuracy of the bolometric magnitudes. Frames with the damaged HST show signs of resolution to within 3" of the M31 nucleus; Red images with the aberrated HST show a red star cluster associated with the nucleus. Ground-based studies of M32 find an intermediate-age population from spectroscopy and infrared photometry. The repaired HST should resolve stars close to the nuclei of these galaxies. We will measure bolometric luminosity functions to determine if the populations are intermediate age, and attempt to measure the abundance range for stars near the nuclei of these galaxies. If metals have been lost due to winds, theory predicts that we should see a substantial spread of abundances even near the nucleus.

  8. Adaptations to local environments in modern human populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Choongwon; Di Rienzo, Anna

    2014-12-01

    After leaving sub-Saharan Africa around 50000-100000 years ago, anatomically modern humans have quickly occupied extremely diverse environments. Human populations were exposed to further environmental changes resulting from cultural innovations, such as the spread of farming, which gave rise to new selective pressures related to pathogen exposures and dietary shifts. In addition to changing the frequency of individual adaptive alleles, natural selection may also shape the overall genetic architecture of adaptive traits. Here, we review recent advances in understanding the genetic architecture of adaptive human phenotypes based on insights from the studies of lactase persistence, skin pigmentation and high-altitude adaptation. These adaptations evolved in parallel in multiple human populations, providing a chance to investigate independent realizations of the evolutionary process. We suggest that the outcome of adaptive evolution is often highly variable even under similar selective pressures. Finally, we highlight a growing need for detecting adaptations that did not follow the classical sweep model and for incorporating new sources of genetic evidence such as information from ancient DNA. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Long-term decline of the populations of Fucales (Cystoseira spp. and Sargassum spp.) in the Albères coast (France, North-western Mediterranean).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibaut, Thierry; Pinedo, Susana; Torras, Xavier; Ballesteros, Enric

    2005-12-01

    Only five of fourteen species of Fucales reported at the end of the XIXth century are currently present in the Albères Coast (France, NW Mediterranean). According to historical data there has been a steady decrease of all the populations since the 1940s. Seven taxa now extinct (Cystoseira crinita, Cystoseira barbata, Cystoseira foeniculacea f. tenuiramosa, Cystoseira spinosa, Cystoseira spinosa var. compressa, Sargassum hornschuchii and Sargassum vulgare) were considered frequent and some of them were the dominant and engineering species in several phytobenthic assemblages. Moreover, only one of the five species left, shows no signs of regression (Cystoseira compressa), two are considered as rare (Cystoseira caespitosa, Cystoseira zosteroides), and one is very rare (Cystoseira elegans). Cystoseira mediterranea, a species that was reported to make a continuous belt along the shores of the Albères coast, has almost disappeared from some areas. Overgrazing by sea urchins, outcompetition by mussels, habitat destruction, scientific research sampling and, probably, human trampling and chemical pollution are to be blamed for the decline of populations thriving in shallow waters. Deep-water species have been affected by an increase in water turbidity and, probably, chemical pollution and direct plant destruction attributed to net fishing. If degradation of the environmental conditions continues, the remaining Cystoseira species will face a most unwelcome prospect. Even after the removal of the causes that led to its die-off, natural restoration of extinct species seems not to be possible because the decline has also affected populations from nearby areas and zygotes are unable to disperse over long distances. Urgent management actions have to be designed in order to improve the current situation of the populations of Fucales in the Albères coast.

  10. Extinction and recolonization of local populations on a growing shield volcano.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, H L; Lockwood, J P; Craddock, E M

    1990-01-01

    Volcanic action has resulted in the burial of the surfaces of Mauna Loa and Kilauea, Hawaii, by new lava flows at rates as high as 90% per 1000 years. Local populations of organisms on such volcanoes are continually being exterminated; survival of the species requires colonization of younger flows. Certain populations of the endemic Hawaiian species Drosophila silvestris exemplify such events in microcosm. Local populations at the base of an altitudinal cline were destroyed by two explosive eruptions within the last 2100 years. Natural recolonization restored the cline except for one young population that is genetically discordant with altitude. Images PMID:11607102

  11. Genetic structure of local populations of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) in central Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munstermann, L E; Morrison, A C; Ferro, C; Pardo, R; Torres, M

    1998-01-01

    Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva), the sand fly vector of American visceral leishmaniasis in the New World tropics, has a broad but discontinuous geographical distribution from southern Mexico to Argentina. A baseline for population genetic structure and genetic variability for this species was obtained by analyzing 5 local, peridomestic populations at the approximate center of its distribution, the Magdalena River Valley of central Colombia. Three populations of L. longipalpis from El Callejón, a small rural community, were compared with 2 populations from neighboring areas 12 and 25 km distant for genetic variation at 15 isoenzyme loci. The mean heterozygosity ranged from 11 to 16%, with 1.2 to 2.3 alleles detected per locus. Nei's genetic distances among the populations were very low, ranging from 0.001 to 0.007. Gene flow estimates based on FST indicated high levels of gene flow among local L. longipalpis populations, with minimal population substructuring.

  12. Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

    2016-01-01

    While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

  13. Declining trend in the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease in the adult population of Finland, 2005-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virta, L J; Saarinen, M M; Kolho, K-L

    2017-12-01

    The frequency of coeliac disease (CD) has been on the rise over the past decades, especially in Western Europe, but current trends are unclear. To research the recent temporal changes in the incidence of adult, biopsy-verified coeliac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis (DH) in Finland, a country with a high frequency of coeliac disease. All coeliac disease and DH cases diagnosed at age 20-79 years during 2005-2014 were retrieved from a nationwide database documenting all applicants for monthly compensation to cover the extra cost of maintaining a gluten-free diet. This benefit is granted on the basis of histology, not socioeconomic status. Temporal trends in the annual incidences were estimated using Poisson regression analyses. The total incidence of coeliac disease decreased from 33/100 000 during the years 2005-2006 to 29/100 000 during 2013-2014. The mean annual incidence of coeliac disease was nearly twice as high among women as among men, 42 vs 22 per 100 000, respectively. For middle- and old-aged women, the average rate of decrease in incidence was 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7) per year and for men 3.0% (1.8-4.1) (P for linear trend adults, the rate of change remained low and nonsignificant throughout the period 2005-2014. Although the awareness of coeliac disease has increased during the past decades, the incidence of biopsy-verified diagnoses is not increasing, which suggests that exposure to yet unidentified triggering factors for coeliac disease has plateaued among the Finnish adult population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke E. Penaluna; Jason B. Dunham; Steve F. Railsback; Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Robert E. Bilby; Mohammad Safeeq; Arne E. Skaugset; James P. Meador

    2015-01-01

    Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of...

  15. Quantifying the contribution of statins to the decline in population mean cholesterol by socioeconomic group in England 1991 - 2012: a modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Kypridemos

    Full Text Available Serum total cholesterol is one of the major targets for cardiovascular disease prevention. Statins are effective for cholesterol control in individual patients. At the population level, however, their contribution to total cholesterol decline remains unclear. The aim of this study was to quantify the contribution of statins to the observed fall in population mean cholesterol levels in England over the past two decades, and explore any differences between socioeconomic groups.This is a modelling study based on data from the Health Survey for England. We analysed changes in observed mean total cholesterol levels in the adult England population between 1991-92 (baseline and 2011-12. We then compared the observed changes with a counterfactual 'no statins' scenario, where the impact of statins on population total cholesterol was estimated and removed. We estimated uncertainty intervals (UI using Monte Carlo simulation, where confidence intervals (CI were impractical. In 2011-12, 13.2% (95% CI: 12.5-14.0% of the English adult population used statins at least once per week, compared with 1991-92 when the proportion was just 0.5% (95% CI: 0.3-1.0%. Between 1991-92 and 2011-12, mean total cholesterol declined from 5.86 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.82-5.90 to 5.17 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.14-5.20. For 2011-12, mean total cholesterol was lower in more deprived groups. In our 'no statins' scenario we predicted a mean total cholesterol of 5.36 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.33-5.40 for 2011-12. Statins were responsible for approximately 33.7% (95% UI: 28.9-38.8% of the total cholesterol reduction since 1991-92. The statin contribution to cholesterol reduction was greater among the more deprived groups of women, while showing little socio-economic gradient among men.Our model suggests that statins explained around a third of the substantial falls in total cholesterol observed in England since 1991. Approximately two thirds of the cholesterol decrease can reasonably be attributed non

  16. Population Policy Adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Interplay of Global and Local Forces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robinson Rachel Sullivan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Sub-Saharan African countries have the highest population growth rates in the world, and are also the poorest. In response to a variety of global and local forces, during the 1980s and 1990s two thirds of sub- Saharan African countries adopted national population policies to reduce population growth. Drawing from existing research and using the texts of population policies to illustrate key points, this article summarises the factors that drove population policy adoption in the region. Globally, powerful donors with significant leverage promoted population policies as a solution to lagging socioeconomic development while international organizations spread norms about women’s rights and reproductive health. Locally, technocrats working within relevant ministries backed efforts to increase contraceptive prevalence, and population policies furthered political projects unrelated to population. The interplay of global and local forces led to governments adopting population policies. Ultimately, continued high desired fertility and limited implementation capacity have prevented population policies from significantly lowering fertility, but these policies have likely increased the availability of contraception, created important discursive space related to gender and sexuality, and provided countries with an opportunity to test procedures and approaches for policy-making on sensitive issues.

  17. Properties of global- and local-ancestry adjustments in genetic association tests in admixed populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Eden R; Tunc, Ilker; Liu, Zhi; Slifer, Susan H; Beecham, Ashley H; Beecham, Gary W

    2018-03-01

    Population substructure can lead to confounding in tests for genetic association, and failure to adjust properly can result in spurious findings. Here we address this issue of confounding by considering the impact of global ancestry (average ancestry across the genome) and local ancestry (ancestry at a specific chromosomal location) on regression parameters and relative power in ancestry-adjusted and -unadjusted models. We examine theoretical expectations under different scenarios for population substructure; applying different regression models, verifying and generalizing using simulations, and exploring the findings in real-world admixed populations. We show that admixture does not lead to confounding when the trait locus is tested directly in a single admixed population. However, if there is more complex population structure or a marker locus in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with the trait locus is tested, both global and local ancestry can be confounders. Additionally, we show the genotype parameters of adjusted and unadjusted models all provide tests for LD between the marker and trait locus, but in different contexts. The local ancestry adjusted model tests for LD in the ancestral populations, while tests using the unadjusted and the global ancestry adjusted models depend on LD in the admixed population(s), which may be enriched due to different ancestral allele frequencies. Practically, this implies that global-ancestry adjustment should be used for screening, but local-ancestry adjustment may better inform fine mapping and provide better effect estimates at trait loci. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  18. Clinical Case Registries: Simultaneous Local and National Disease Registries for Population Quality Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backus, Lisa I.; Gavrilov, Sergey; Loomis, Timothy P.; Halloran, James P.; Phillips, Barbara R.; Belperio, Pamela S.; Mole, Larry A.

    2009-01-01

    The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has a system-wide, patient-centric electronic medical record system (EMR) within which the authors developed the Clinical Case Registries (CCR) to support population-centric delivery and evaluation of VA medical care. To date, the authors have applied the CCR to populations with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Local components use diagnosis codes and laboratory test results to identify patients who may have HIV or HCV and support queries on local care delivery with customizable reports. For each patient in a local registry, key EMR data are transferred via HL7 messaging to a single national registry. From 128 local registry systems, over 60,000 and 320,000 veterans in VA care have been identified as having HIV and HCV, respectively, and entered in the national database. Local and national reports covering demographics, resource usage, quality of care metrics and medication safety issues have been generated. PMID:19717794

  19. Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

    2003-07-07

    A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.

  20. The significance and role of local self-governments in the population policy of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavrilović Ana

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Population should be in the central focus of local community institutions and the local community may constitute its population policy which will supplement state population policy measures, considering the local specific various traditions, values and models of living. The paper's basic goal is to critically perceive the characteristics, significance and role of local self-governments in the current population policy of Serbia. Social situation and social policy characteristics in Serbia are analyzed in the context of the population policy. It is pointed out that poverty, unemployment, the economic crisis, the process of privatization, the issue of system decentralization and social expectations of the population, as current expressions of transition, all have a consequence on the demographic development and population policy. A critical estimation of the activities in the field of population policies which are carried out by local and provincial self-governments in Serbia in the last decade are brought into focus, with a special review to the activities of provincial and local governments in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina. As a result of the analysis it is pointed out that the population and social policy measures have been separated since the year 2000 and that they have been directed only to stimulating births and not child raising and that solutions regarding maternity leave brought improvements, however shortened maternity leave for the third child. The new conception of the population policy brought a whole series of restrictions such as: suspension of aid for newborn essentials; discontinuance of the right to maternity allowance; abolishing of compensation for preschool expenses for the third child; children’s allowance lost its population measures character along with considerable tightening of the census and decreasing of amount; the activities of preschool facilities have been reduced only to an educational function, and the

  1. Change in the terpenoid profile and secondary growth in declining stands of Pinus sylvestris L. under mediterranean influence as a response to local factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanz, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The terpenoid profile could give information about the water status in Scots pine, especially for trees growing in the same geographical area but under contrasting local environmental conditions. Terpenes were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in needles, twigs and wood of ten affected and ten unaffected Scots pines in the southern “Sistema Ibérico” range (Teruel, Spain, where forest decline has been recently reported. Soil depth and secondary growth was also studied in both types of trees. Needles and twigs total resin acids were significantly higher in affected trees. The pimarane type resin acids were also higher in the twigs of affected trees. Secondary growth was lower in affected trees and it showed higher climate sensitivity. The use of the terpenoid profile may be used as an additional tool for the estimation of the water status, especially for situations inducing moderate but relatively prolonged stress conditions.El perfil terpénico podría dar información sobre el estado hídrico en el pino albar, especialmente cuando se comparen especímenes de una zona geográfica concreta afectados por factores ambientales locales. Los terpenos de acículas, brotes del año y madera fueron analizados en diez ejemplares afectados y otros tantos no afectados por el decaimiento mediante cromatografía de masas acoplada a espectrometría de masas. La serie de crecimiento secundario en ambos tipos de ejemplares fue también estudiada. La concentración total de ácidos resínicos aumentó de modo significativo en los árboles afectados tanto en brotes del año como en acículas. La cantidad de ácidos de tipo pimarano también aumentó en los brotes de los árboles afectados. La profundidad del suelo y el crecimiento secundario era menor en este tipo de ejemplares, que muestran una mayor sensibilidad en términos dendrocronológicos. El perfíl terpénico podría utilizarse como una herramienta adicional a la estimación del estado

  2. Predatory leeches (Hirudinida) may contribute to amphibian declines in the Lassen, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stead Jonathan; Karen Pope

    2010-01-01

    Researchers have documented precipitous declines in Cascades Frog (Rana cascadae) populations in the southern portion of the species' range, in the Lassen region of California. Reasons for the declines, however, have not been elucidated. In addition to common, widespread causes, an understanding of local community interactions may be necessary...

  3. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  4. Predictors of short-term mortality, cognitive and physical decline in older adults in northwest Russia: a population-based prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2017-08-01

    The classical phenotype, accumulated deficit model and self-report approach of frailty were found not useful in older adults in northwest Russia. More research is needed to identify predictors of adverse outcomes in this population. The aim of this study is to identify predictors of mortality, autonomy and cognitive decline in a population that is characterized by a high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rate. A population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals 65+. Anthropometry, medical history nutritional status were recorded. An evaluation of cognitive, physical and autonomy function, spirometry, and laboratory tests were performed. The total follow-up was 5 years. Multiple imputation, backward stepwise Cox regression analysis, C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis and the bootstrapping techniques were used to analyze the data. We found that the combination of increasing age, male sex, low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s and anemia was associated with mortality for people 65+. The substitution of anemia with anemia + high level of C-reactive protein (hCRP) and the addition of high brain natriuretic peptide (hBNP) levels improved the classification of older persons at risk for mortality. The combination of low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s, anemia with hCRP levels and hBNP identified older persons at a higher risk for mortality. These predictors may be used for the development of a prediction model to detect older people who are at risk for adverse health outcomes in northwest Russia.

  5. Communication problems between local authorities and population in the zone of anti-terrorist operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. M. Dolya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the context of restoration of government framework and local authorities in the regions prone to external aggression, special attention should be paid to the study of the problem of organisation of communication between public authorities and local population. It is the dialogue and the effective exchange of information between the population and the local authorities that constitute one of the major pillars of reintegration of Donbass territories, covered by the antiterrorist operation, into Ukraine; the regional specifics of the given territories is the anarchy resulting from withdrawal of the local government bodies that were legally elected yet in 2010. In fact, escape of heads and deputies of local councils in the most challenging period in life of the region catalysed the local people, reinforcing the sense of insecurity and understanding the betrayal of representatives of local government bodies. Thus, the issues of enhancement of communication channels effectiveness, which were still burning before the beginning of the external aggression and the partial occupation of Donbass, have been compounded today by the problem of establishment of communication channels between the population and the new Ukrainian local authorities nearly from scratch. This needs to take into account that the armed conflict conditions remain and, obviously, leave their imprint on social interaction within local communities. At the same time, it is the development of communication in the ATO zone, especially in the areas that underwent occupation or were released, which may form the basis for the harmonious entry of the citizens into the Ukrainian socium. Establishment of civil­military administrations (CMAs with the purpose to temporarily substitute the non­functioning local authorities in Donbass is the unique experience for Ukraine. Despite legal recognition of rights and duties of local government bodies, it should be understood that CMAs act in terms of

  6. Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina.

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    Ella Clausius

    Full Text Available The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

  7. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  8. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Paprocki

    Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

  9. Local Climate Heterogeneity Shapes Population Genetic Structure of Two Undifferentiated Insular Scutellaria Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiung, Huan-Yi; Huang, Bing-Hong; Chang, Jui-Tse; Huang, Yao-Moan; Huang, Chih-Wei; Liao, Pei-Chun

    2017-01-01

    Spatial climate heterogeneity may not only affect adaptive gene frequencies but could also indirectly shape the genetic structure of neutral loci by impacting demographic dynamics. In this study, the effect of local climate on population genetic variation was tested in two phylogenetically close Scutellaria species in Taiwan. Scutellaria taipeiensis , which was originally assumed to be an endemic species of Taiwan Island, is shown to be part of the widespread species S. barbata based on the overlapping ranges of genetic variation and climatic niches as well as their morphological similarity. Rejection of the scenario of "early divergence with secondary contact" and the support for multiple origins of populations of S. taipeiensis from S. barbata provide strong evolutionary evidence for a taxonomic revision of the species combination. Further tests of a climatic effect on genetic variation were conducted. Regression analyses show nonlinear correlations among any pair of geographic, climatic, and genetic distances. However, significantly, the bioclimatic variables that represent the precipitation from late summer to early autumn explain roughly 13% of the genetic variation of our sampled populations. These results indicate that spatial differences of precipitation in the typhoon season may influence the regeneration rate and colonization rate of local populations. The periodic typhoon episodes explain the significant but nonlinear influence of climatic variables on population genetic differentiation. Although, the climatic difference does not lead to species divergence, the local climate variability indeed impacts the spatial genetic distribution at the population level.

  10. TWO-DIMENSIONAL LOCALIZATION OF ATOMIC POPULATIONS IN FOUR-LEVEL QUANTUM SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Efremova

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with investigation of one aspect of fundamental problem of laser radiation interaction with the matter. This problem is spatial localization of atomic populations due to fields impact of few running waves. We are the first to propose in our work two–dimensional spatial localization of atomic populations in medium with tripod–like configuration of levels under the field influence of running waves only. Three running waves, propagating along one plane 120o angle-wise to each other, form the system of standing waves in this plane. Atomic populations can be localized in the field of these standing waves. Moreover, the degree of such localization can make up hundredth parts of the wavelength of the incident optical radiation. It is shown that an excitation of the central transition of the tripod-like system using a field of multidirectional linearly polarized running waves is the necessary condition of the population dependence from spatial coordinates in the XY – plane. The two–dimensional shapes that appear in this system can have very complicated structure such as “double – craters”.

  11. Alleviating acid soil stress in cowpea with a local population of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Alleviating acid soil stress in cowpea with a local population of arbuscular ... Roots of the cowpea lines were all heavily colonized by the fungi and their leaf P was ... Total dry weight of inoculated cowpea was not affected by soil acidity while it ...

  12. Analysis of correlation structure in Lymantria dispar L. larvae from locally adapted populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mrdaković Marija

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The influence of allelochemical stress and population origin on the patterns of phenotypic and genetic correlations among life history traits and digestive enzyme activities were investigated in larvae of the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.; Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae. Thirty-two full-sib families from oak (suitable host plant, Quercus population, and twenty-six full-sib families from locust-tree (unsuitable host plant, Robinia population forests were reared on an artificial diet, with or without a 5% tannic acid supplement. Comparison of correlation matrices revealed significant similarity between the two populations in the structure of phenotypic and genetic correlations of life history traits and of digestive enzyme activities. The patterns of correlations of the examined traits, within each of the two locally adapted populations and in the presence of allelochemical stress, remained stabile despite the different selection pressures that mold these traits. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 173027

  13. Travel determinants and multi-scale transferability of national activity patterns to local populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henson, Kriste M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gou; ias, Konstadinos G [UCSB

    2010-11-30

    The ability to transfer national travel patterns to a local population is of interest when attempting to model megaregions or areas that exceed metropolitan planning organization (MPO) boundaries. At the core of this research are questions about the connection between travel behavior and land use, urban form, and accessibility. As a part of this process, a group of land use variables have been identified to define activity and travel patterns for individuals and households. The 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) participants are divided into categories comprised of a set of latent cluster models representing persons, travel, and land use. These are compared to two sets of cluster models constructed for two local travel surveys. Comparison of means statistical tests are used to assess differences among sociodemographic groups residing in localities with similar land uses. The results show that the NHTS and the local surveys share mean population activity and travel characteristics. However, these similarities mask behavioral heterogeneity that are shown when distributions of activity and travel behavior are examined. Therefore, data from a national household travel survey cannot be used to model local population travel characteristics if the goal to model the actual distributions and not mean travel behavior characteristics.

  14. Latitudinal Gradient in Otolith Shape among Local Populations of Atlantic Herring (Clupea harengus L.) in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libungan, Lísa Anne; Slotte, Aril; Husebø, Åse; Godiksen, Jane A; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

    2015-01-01

    Otolith shape analysis of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in Norwegian waters shows significant differentiation among fjords and a latitudinal gradient along the coast where neighbouring populations are more similar to each other than to those sampled at larger distances. The otolith shape was obtained using quantitative shape analysis, the outlines were transformed with Wavelet and analysed with multivariate methods. The observed morphological differences are likely to reflect environmental differences but indicate low dispersal among the local herring populations. Otolith shape variation suggests also limited exchange between the local populations and their oceanic counterparts, which could be due to differences in spawning behaviour. Herring from the most northerly location (69°N) in Balsfjord, which is genetically more similar to Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), differed in otolith shape from all the other populations. Our results suggest that the semi-enclosed systems, where the local populations live and breed, are efficient barriers for dispersal. Otolith shape can thus serve as a marker to identify the origin of herring along the coast of Norway.

  15. Latitudinal Gradient in Otolith Shape among Local Populations of Atlantic Herring (Clupea harengus L.) in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libungan, Lísa Anne; Slotte, Aril; Husebø, Åse; Godiksen, Jane A.; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

    2015-01-01

    Otolith shape analysis of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in Norwegian waters shows significant differentiation among fjords and a latitudinal gradient along the coast where neighbouring populations are more similar to each other than to those sampled at larger distances. The otolith shape was obtained using quantitative shape analysis, the outlines were transformed with Wavelet and analysed with multivariate methods. The observed morphological differences are likely to reflect environmental differences but indicate low dispersal among the local herring populations. Otolith shape variation suggests also limited exchange between the local populations and their oceanic counterparts, which could be due to differences in spawning behaviour. Herring from the most northerly location (69°N) in Balsfjord, which is genetically more similar to Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), differed in otolith shape from all the other populations. Our results suggest that the semi-enclosed systems, where the local populations live and breed, are efficient barriers for dispersal. Otolith shape can thus serve as a marker to identify the origin of herring along the coast of Norway. PMID:26101885

  16. Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

    1998-11-01

    We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

  17. Local environment but not genetic differentiation influences biparental care in ten plover populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orsolya Vincze

    Full Text Available Social behaviours are highly variable between species, populations and individuals. However, it is contentious whether behavioural variations are primarily moulded by the environment, caused by genetic differences, or a combination of both. Here we establish that biparental care, a complex social behaviour that involves rearing of young by both parents, differs between closely related populations, and then test two potential sources of variation in parental behaviour between populations: ambient environment and genetic differentiation. We use 2904 hours behavioural data from 10 geographically distinct Kentish (Charadrius alexandrinus and snowy plover (C. nivosus populations in America, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa to test these two sources of behavioural variation. We show that local ambient temperature has a significant influence on parental care: with extreme heat (above 40 °C total incubation (i.e. % of time the male or female incubated the nest increased, and female share (% female share of incubation decreased. By contrast, neither genetic differences between populations, nor geographic distances predicted total incubation or female's share of incubation. These results suggest that the local environment has a stronger influence on a social behaviour than genetic differentiation, at least between populations of closely related species.

  18. Probing the Dusty Stellar Populations of the Local Volume Galaxies with JWST /MIRI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Olivia C.; Meixner, Margaret [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD, 21218 (United States); Justtanont, Kay [Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, Onsala Space Observatory, SE-439 92 Onsala (Sweden); Glasse, Alistair [UK Astronomy Technology Centre, Royal Observatory, Edinburgh, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom)

    2017-05-20

    The Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) for the James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ) will revolutionize our understanding of infrared stellar populations in the Local Volume. Using the rich Spitzer -IRS spectroscopic data set and spectral classifications from the Surveying the Agents of Galaxy Evolution (SAGE)–Spectroscopic survey of more than 1000 objects in the Magellanic Clouds, the Grid of Red Supergiant and Asymptotic Giant Branch Star Model (grams), and the grid of YSO models by Robitaille et al., we calculate the expected flux densities and colors in the MIRI broadband filters for prominent infrared stellar populations. We use these fluxes to explore the JWST /MIRI colors and magnitudes for composite stellar population studies of Local Volume galaxies. MIRI color classification schemes are presented; these diagrams provide a powerful means of identifying young stellar objects, evolved stars, and extragalactic background galaxies in Local Volume galaxies with a high degree of confidence. Finally, we examine which filter combinations are best for selecting populations of sources based on their JWST colors.

  19. Molecular characterization of six sub population Indonesian local goats based on mitochondrial DNA D-loop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aron Batubara

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Indonesian local goats were spread in some region, but there was still limited data’s known about the characteristics of its genetic diversity and origin. The Mitochondrial DNA D-loop sequences were used to study the genetic diversity and relationships of six sub population Indonesian local goats, namely, Kacang, Marica, Samosir, Jawarandu, Muara and Bengali goats. From 539 blood samples and DNA extraction collections were selected about 60 samples (10 samples each sub populations analyzed by PCR-RFLP methods, followed sequence analyzed about 5 PCR products each sub population. The results of the sequence analyses were edited and acquired about 957 bp of nucleotides length. After the alignment analyses were found 50 polymorphic sites which divided into 19 haplotype groups of mtDNA D-loop region. The value of nucleotide diversity was 0.014 ± 0.002. Analysis of Neighbour Joining with Kimura 2 Parameter methods and bootstrap test with 1000 replication indicated that each sub population groups was significantly different between one groups to the others. The maternal lineages origin of six breeds of Indonesian local goats was included to the group of lineage B. The Lineage B was the maternal origin of the haplogroup of goats in the region of East Asia, South Asia, China, Mongolia, North and South Africa, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan and India.

  20. Identifying the Relevant Local Population for Environmental Impact Assessments of Mobile Marine Fauna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delphine B. H. Chabanne

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessments must be addressed at a scale that reflects the biological organization for the species affected. It can be challenging to identify the relevant local wildlife population for impact assessment for those species that are continuously distributed and highly mobile. Here, we document the existence of local communities of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus inhabiting coastal and estuarine waters of Perth, Western Australia, where major coastal developments have been undertaken or are proposed. Using sighting histories from a 4-year photo-identification study, we investigated fine-scale, social community structure of dolphins based on measures of social affinity, and network (Half-Weight Index—HWI, preferred dyadic association tests, and Lagged Association Rates—LAR, home ranges, residency patterns (Lagged Identification Rates—LIR, and genetic relatedness. Analyses revealed four socially and spatially distinct, mixed-sex communities. The four communities had distinctive social patterns varying in strength, site fidelity, and residency patterns. Overlap in home ranges and relatedness explained little to none of the association patterns between individuals, suggesting complex local social structures. The study demonstrated that environmental impact assessments for mobile, continuously distributed species must evaluate impacts in light of local population structure, especially where proposed developments may affect core habitats of resident communities or sub-populations. Here, the risk of local extinction is particularly significant for an estuarine community because of its small size, limited connectivity with adjacent communities, and use of areas subject to intensive human use. In the absence of information about fine-scale population structure, impact assessments may fail to consider the appropriate biological context.

  1. Radiation doses to local populations near nuclear weapons test sites worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Steven L; Bouville, André

    2002-05-01

    Nuclear weapons testing was conducted in the atmosphere at numerous sites worldwide between 1946 and 1980, which resulted in exposures to local populations as a consequence of fallout of radioactive debris. The nuclear tests were conducted by five nations (United States, Soviet Union, United Kingdom, France, and China) primarily at 16 sites. The 16 testing sites, located in nine different countries on five continents (plus Oceania) contributed nearly all of the radioactive materials released to the environment by atmospheric testing; only small amounts were released at a fewother minor testing sites. The 16 sites discussed here are Nevada Test Site, USA (North American continent), Bikini and Enewetak, Marshall Islands (Oceania); Johnston Island, USA (Oceania), Christmas and Malden Island, Kiribati (Oceania); Emu Field, Maralinga, and Monte Bello Islands, Australia (Australian continent); Mururoa and Fangataufa, French Polynesia (Oceania), Reggane, Algeria (Africa), Novaya Zemlya and Kapustin Yar, Russia (Europe), Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan (Asia), and Lop Nor, China (Asia). There were large differences in the numbers of tests conducted at each location and in the total explosive yields. Those factors, as well as differences in population density, lifestyle, environment, and climate at each site, led to large differences in the doses received by local populations. In general, the tests conducted earliest led to the highest individual and population exposures, although the amount of information available for a few of these sites is insufficient to provide any detailed evaluation of radiation exposures. The most comprehensive information for any site is for the Nevada Test Site. The disparities in available information add difficulty to determining the radiation exposures of local populations at each site. It is the goal of this paper to summarize the available information on external and internal doses received by the public living in the regions near each of the

  2. Are ethnic restaurants a solution to dine out for the young local population?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BALTESCU Codruta Adina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ethnic restaurants are a component of a tourist destination offer. Through their profile, the menus, ambiance and environment, ethnic restaurants are targeting mainly the visitors. This article analyses to what extent these restaurants can attract local population, and especially, young population. In this respect it was conducted a quantitative marketing research among students of the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Business Administration from Brasov. The conclusions obtained highlight which are the attraction elements and features which determine young people to eat in an ethnic restaurant, in their place of residence or at a holiday destination.

  3. Selection from parasites favours immunogenetic diversity but not divergence among locally adapted host populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobler, M; Plath, M; Riesch, R; Schlupp, I; Grasse, A; Munimanda, G K; Setzer, C; Penn, D J; Moodley, Y

    2014-05-01

    The unprecedented polymorphism in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes is thought to be maintained by balancing selection from parasites. However, do parasites also drive divergence at MHC loci between host populations, or do the effects of balancing selection maintain similarities among populations? We examined MHC variation in populations of the livebearing fish Poecilia mexicana and characterized their parasite communities. Poecilia mexicana populations in the Cueva del Azufre system are locally adapted to darkness and the presence of toxic hydrogen sulphide, representing highly divergent ecotypes or incipient species. Parasite communities differed significantly across populations, and populations with higher parasite loads had higher levels of diversity at class II MHC genes. However, despite different parasite communities, marked divergence in adaptive traits and in neutral genetic markers, we found MHC alleles to be remarkably similar among host populations. Our findings indicate that balancing selection from parasites maintains immunogenetic diversity of hosts, but this process does not promote MHC divergence in this system. On the contrary, we suggest that balancing selection on immunogenetic loci may outweigh divergent selection causing divergence, thereby hindering host divergence and speciation. Our findings support the hypothesis that balancing selection maintains MHC similarities among lineages during and after speciation (trans-species evolution). © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  4. Taste, Salt Consumption, and Local Explanations around Hypertension in a Rural Population in Northern Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesantes, M Amalia; Diez-Canseco, Francisco; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Ponce-Lucero, Vilarmina; Miranda, J Jaime

    2017-07-05

    Interventions to promote behaviors to reduce sodium intake require messages tailored to local understandings of the relationship between what we eat and our health. We studied local explanations about hypertension, the relationship between local diet, salt intake, and health status, and participants' opinions about changing food habits. This study provided inputs for a social marketing campaign in Peru promoting the use of a salt substitute containing less sodium than regular salt. Qualitative methods (focus groups and in-depth interviews) were utilized with local populations, people with hypertension, and health personnel in six rural villages. Participants were 18-65 years old, 41% men. Participants established a direct relationship between emotions and hypertension, regardless of age, gender, and hypertension status. Those without hypertension established a connection between eating too much/eating fried food and health status but not between salt consumption and hypertension. Participants rejected dietary changes. Economic barriers and high appreciation of local culinary traditions were the main reasons for this. It is the conclusion of this paper that introducing and promoting salt substitutes require creative strategies that need to acknowledge local explanatory disease models such as the strong association between emotional wellbeing and hypertension, give a positive spin to changing food habits, and resist the "common sense" strategy of information provision around the causal connection between salt consumption and hypertension.

  5. Décentralisation, droits de la population locale et citoyenneté des ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Décentralisation, droits de la population locale et citoyenneté des femmes : étude comparative menée au Kenya, en Ouganda et en Tanzanie - phase II. Le Kenya, l'Ouganda et la Tanzanie ont adopté de nouvelles lois, politiques et modalités institutionnelles pour faciliter la décentralisation de l'administration et de la ...

  6. Importance of education and training local population in process of development rural tourism in Serbia

    OpenAIRE

    Vuković, Predrag; Subić, Jonel; Cvijanović, Drago

    2014-01-01

    Since the mid-nineties of the twentieth century begins a rapid expansion of rural tourism in Serbia. In the first initial phase, the development has taken place without a clear plan and program. The first achieved positive results, influenced that Serbian Government since 2008 started with appropriate funding with aim to improve rural tourism development. Also, until 2008 there was no system of education and training sessions of the local population. Farmers were not educated and trained t...

  7. Attitudes of Local Population of Tourism Impacts on Destination Sustainability – Case of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izidora Marković

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Space as a resource is intensively used both by the tourism and the local community. Therefore the state of the tourism development must be measured trough time, along with attitudes of local population, to determine the impacts and the pressure that can continues tourism development cause. In the 1990s, tourism becomes the motor of the development of Croatia, which has resulted in continues increase of the number of tourist beds. On the other hand population of the Croatia is experiencing the demographic extinction. To explain pressures of the tourism development on the decreasing community, tourism function index was used in comparison with the research of the attitudes of local population considering tourism impacts. The main objective of this paper is to determine the correlation between the increase in the number of tourists and changes in the life of local population, which arises from the tourism activities in destinations, as well as from the ratio of the number of residents and tourists. The attitudes analysis has shown high level of the negative impacts of tourism in seven Adriatic counties, while in continental parts of Croatia tourism is seen as an activity with mostly positive effects. Still tourism has generally positive impact on the destination and is seen as desirable activity, even in areas with relatively high tourism function index. Accordingly, to enhance the positive impacts it is essential to diminish extremely big differences in tourism development between too developed coastal areas and mainly neglected continental part of the country and to reduce seasonality of tourism, trough sustainable management and diversification of tourism offer in accordance with spatial disparities.

  8. Daily intake of manganese by local population around Kylleng Pyndengsohiong Mawthabah (Domiasiat), Meghalaya in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gothankar, S.S. [Environmental Assessment Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Jha, S.K. [Environmental Assessment Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)], E-mail: skjha@barc.gov.in; Lenka, P.; Tripathi, R.M.; Puranik, V.D. [Environmental Assessment Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

    2009-04-01

    Present work is carried out adjacent to world's highest rainfall area Kylleng Pyndengsohiong (KP) Mawthabah (Domiasiat), Meghalaya in India to establish the baseline value of manganese intake through dietary route by the local tribe population in view of proposed uranium mining. The locally available food items collected from villages surrounding the proposed uranium mining site at KP Mawthabah (Domiasiat) were analysed using Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence (EDXRF) Technique. The manganese concentration in different food categories varies from 2.76-12.50 mg kg{sup -1} in cereals, 1.8-4.20 mg kg{sup -1} in leafy vegetables, 0.30-13.50 mg kg{sup -1} in non leafy vegetables, 0.50-15.30 mg kg{sup -1} in roots and tubers, 0.70-1.50 mg kg{sup -1} in fruits and 0.12-0.96 mg kg{sup -1} in flesh food. The mean dietary intake of Mn was found to be 3.83 {+-} 0.25 mg d{sup -1} compared to Recommended Dietary Allowances (RDAs) of 2-5 mg d{sup -1}. The daily intake of Manganese by the local tribe population is comparable with the value (3.7 mg d{sup -1}) recommended by International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) for reference man and lower than the intake value observed for Indian and other Asian population.

  9. Sustainable tourism in National Park "Đerdap", Serbia - attitudes of local population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brankov Jovana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the broader controversy about sustainable development, tourism literature highlights the importance of the support of the local population to tourism development. The active support of the community is essential for the local government, the future development policies and all entities that participate in the creation of sustainable tourism development. The specific dimension of this influence exists in protected areas, given the pronounced strong environmental component and a bond that is created among tourism - protected area - locals. The paper analyzes the attitudes and opinions of the local population residing in the National Park “Đerdap” or its protection zone about the effects and control of tourism development, as well as the availability of information on sustainable tourism and the impact this activity has on the community. The method applied is survey research on a sample of 227 respondents. During the preparation of the survey, the methodological procedure for the analysis of sustainable tourism indicators ware used proposed by the World Tourism Organization. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47007 III

  10. Patterns of genetic diversity of local pig populations in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabete Cristina da Silva

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This study estimated the genetic diversity and structure of 12 genetic groups (GG of locally adapted and specialized pigs in the state of Pernambuco using 22 microsatellite markers. Nine locally adapted breeds (Baé, Caruncho, Canastra, Canastrão, Mamelado, Moura, Nilo, Piau and UDB (Undefined Breed and 3 specialized breeds (Duroc, Landrace and Large White, totaling 190 animals, were analyzed. The Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA showed that 3.2% of the total variation was due to differences between genetic groups, and 3.6% to differences between local and commercial pigs. One hundred and ninety eight alleles were identified and apart from the Large White breed, all GG presented Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium deviations for some loci. The total and effective allele means were lower for Duroc (3.65 and 3.01 and higher for UDB (8.89 and 4.53 and Canastra (8.61 and 4.58. Using Nei's standard genetic distance and the UPGMA method, it was possible to observe that the Landrace breed was grouped with the local genetic groups Canastra, Moura, Canastrão, Baé and Caruncho. Due to the complex admixture pattern, the genetic variability of the 12 genetic groups can be analyzed by distributing the individuals into two populations as demonstrated by a Bayesian analysis, corroborating the results from AMOVA, which revealed a low level of genetic differentiation between the inferred populations.

  11. Hospitalizations for cancer in international migrants versus local population in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyarte, Marcela; Delgado, Iris; Pedrero, Víctor; Agar, Lorenzo; Cabieses, Báltica

    2018-04-09

    To compare cancer hospital morbidity among the local population and the immigrant population in Chile. This is a prevalence study based on the analysis of hospital discharges of all the health centers of Chile. Cancer hospital discharges were characterized in 2012 according to the migratory status. The crude and specific rates of hospital morbidity for this cause were estimated for the analysis of their association with migratory status using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. The neoplasms were the third cause of hospital discharges for immigrants and the seventh one for Chileans. The adjusted rate of cancer hospital discharges was higher for Chileans than immigrants, and the latter had fewer days of hospitalization and greater proportion of surgical interventions. In the group of immigrants, cancer hospital discharges mainly corresponded to patients belonging to the private system (46%), and in the group of Chileans they mainly corresponded to patients in the public system (71.1%). We observed a large difference in the proportion of cancer hospital discharges for patients with no health insurance between the two populations (22.6%: immigrants, 1.0%: Chileans). In both populations, the three most frequent types of cancer were: (i) lymphoid tissue, hematopoietic organs, and related tissues, (ii) digestive organs, and (iii) breast cancer. Models of differentiated care should be considered for immigrants, with the creation of specific programs of information, coverage, and protection against cancer. More information on this problem must be generated at the local and international level.

  12. Local population impacts of geothermal energy development in the Geysers: Calistoga region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haven, K.F.; Berg, V.; Ladson, Y.W.

    1980-09-01

    The country-level population increase implications of two long-term geothermal development scenarios for the Geysers region in California are addressed. This region is defined to include the counties of Lake, Sonoma, Mendocino and Napa, all four in northern California. The development scenarios include two components: development for electrical energy production and direct use applications. Electrical production scenarios are derived by incorporating current development patterns into previous development scenarios by both industry and research organizations. The scenarios are made county-specific, specific to the type of geothermal system constructed, and are projected through the year 2000. Separate high growth rate and low growth rate scenarios are developed, based on a set of specified assumptions. Direct use scenarios are estimated from the nature of the available resource, existing local economic and demographic patterns, and available experience with various separate direct use options. From the composite development scenarios, required numbers of direct and indirect employees and the resultant in-migration patterns are estimated. In-migration patterns are compared to current county level population and ongoing trends in the county population change for each of the four counties. From this comparison, conclusions are drawn concerning the contributions of geothermal resource development to future population levels and the significance of geothermally induced population increase from a county planning perspective.

  13. Village-Level Identification of Nitrate Sources: Collaboration of Experts and Local Population in Benin, Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crane, P.; Silliman, S. E.; Boukari, M.; Atoro, I.; Azonsi, F.

    2005-12-01

    Deteriorating groundwater quality, as represented by high nitrates, in the Colline province of Benin, West Africa was identified by the Benin national water agency, Direction Hydraulique. For unknown reasons the Colline province had consistently higher nitrate levels than any other region of the country. In an effort to address this water quality issue, a collaborative team was created that incorporated professionals from the Universite d'Abomey-Calavi (Benin), the University of Notre Dame (USA), Direction l'Hydraulique (a government water agency in Benin), Centre Afrika Obota (an educational NGO in Benin), and the local population of the village of Adourekoman. The goals of the project were to: (i) identify the source of nitrates, (ii) test field techniques for long term, local monitoring, and (iii) identify possible solutions to the high levels of groundwater nitrates. In order to accomplish these goals, the following methods were utilized: regional sampling of groundwater quality, field methods that allowed the local population to regularly monitor village groundwater quality, isotopic analysis, and sociological methods of surveys, focus groups, and observations. It is through the combination of these multi-disciplinary methods that all three goals were successfully addressed leading to preliminary identification of the sources of nitrates in the village of Adourekoman, confirmation of utility of field techniques, and initial assessment of possible solutions to the contamination problem.

  14. The population genomic landscape of human genetic structure, admixture history and local adaptation in Peninsular Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Lian; Hoh, Boon Peng; Lu, Dongsheng; Fu, Ruiqing; Phipps, Maude E; Li, Shilin; Nur-Shafawati, Ab Rajab; Hatin, Wan Isa; Ismail, Endom; Mokhtar, Siti Shuhada; Jin, Li; Zilfalil, Bin Alwi; Marshall, Christian R; Scherer, Stephen W; Al-Mulla, Fahd; Xu, Shuhua

    2014-09-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is a strategic region which might have played an important role in the initial peopling and subsequent human migrations in Asia. However, the genetic diversity and history of human populations--especially indigenous populations--inhabiting this area remain poorly understood. Here, we conducted a genome-wide study using over 900,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in four major Malaysian ethnic groups (MEGs; Malay, Proto-Malay, Senoi and Negrito), and made comparisons of 17 world-wide populations. Our data revealed that Peninsular Malaysia has greater genetic diversity corresponding to its role as a contact zone of both early and recent human migrations in Asia. However, each single Orang Asli (indigenous) group was less diverse with a smaller effective population size (N(e)) than a European or an East Asian population, indicating a substantial isolation of some duration for these groups. All four MEGs were genetically more similar to Asian populations than to other continental groups, and the divergence time between MEGs and East Asian populations (12,000--6,000 years ago) was also much shorter than that between East Asians and Europeans. Thus, Malaysian Orang Asli groups, despite their significantly different features, may share a common origin with the other Asian groups. Nevertheless, we identified traces of recent gene flow from non-Asians to MEGs. Finally, natural selection signatures were detected in a batch of genes associated with immune response, human height, skin pigmentation, hair and facial morphology and blood pressure in MEGs. Notable examples include SYN3 which is associated with human height in all Orang Asli groups, a height-related gene (PNPT1) and two blood pressure-related genes (CDH13 and PAX5) in Negritos. We conclude that a long isolation period, subsequent gene flow and local adaptations have jointly shaped the genetic architectures of MEGs, and this study provides insight into the peopling and human migration

  15. Consumption of locally grown foods by the populations residing near nuclear power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathieu, P.Y.

    1980-01-01

    The studies carried out by the Geographical Institute of Aix-en-Provence and the B.E.G.E.A. are in three forms: the first studies the local rural production (farming, animal rearing and fishing); the second is concerned with the food intake of the population within a radius of 5 to 10 km around the site; the third consists in working out a soil utilization map covering an area of about 2500 hectares around the site in order to determine the agricultural and urban areas as well as the open spaces, and the exact sort of cultivation carried out, plot by plot. The map also represents all the phenomena concerning hydrography, irrigation, watering and the supply of potable water. All these studies concern only a few parishes and enable an accurate knowledge of the environment to be acquired. The food studies seek an order of magnitude of the amount of local produce consumed by the populations of the nuclear power station sites with a view to determining radioactive contamination levels. The results show the specific food consumption features of a population bearing the deep stamp of its environment and its rural origin [fr

  16. Do cycle disturbances explain the age-related decline of female fertility? Cycle characteristics of women aged over 40 years compared with a reference population of young women.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zonneveld, P. van; Scheffer, G.J.; Broekmans, F.J.; Blankenstein, M.A.; Jong, F.H. de; Looman, C.W.; Habbema, J.D.F.; Velde, E.R. te

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The cause of declining fertility with age, in women who still have regular menstrual cycles, is not clear. METHODS: Follicle development, endometrial growth and hormonal patterns were evaluated in cycles of older women (aged 41-46 years; n = 26) who previously were normally fertile, and

  17. Dynamics of a local badger (Meles meles) population in the Netherlands over the years 1983-2001

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apeldoorn, van R.C.; Vink, J.; Matyástík, T.

    2006-01-01

    Long-term data on badger population dynamics are scarce. For 19 years data on badger and sett numbers were collected by direct observation of a Local population in the province of Utrecht, the Netherlands. Analysis of these data show two different patterns of population growth. The first shows a

  18. Reproductive and population dynamics parameters of Mbanza-Ngungu's local goat in Democratic Republic of Congo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Gasigwa Sabimana

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Prospects for the development of goat breeding in the Democratic Republic of Congo seem favorable. Knowledge of the characteristics of local goat farming by breeders is a very important factor to control and promote goat production. The objective of this study was to improve the productivity of Mbanza-Ngungu’s local goat by increasing the knowledge of its reproductive performance. To achieve this objective, data were collected by direct observation of the goats. These data were used to simulate reproductive and population dynamics parameters over a five-year period. The study showed the relevance of the model to simulate the reproduction traits of Mbanza-Ngungu’s goats and that it is useless to keep them beyond five years.

  19. Decoding complete reach and grasp actions from local primary motor cortex populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Irwin, Carlos E; Shakhnarovich, Gregory; Yadollahpour, Payman; Mislow, John M K; Black, Michael J; Donoghue, John P

    2010-07-21

    How the activity of populations of cortical neurons generates coordinated multijoint actions of the arm, wrist, and hand is poorly understood. This study combined multielectrode recording techniques with full arm motion capture to relate neural activity in primary motor cortex (M1) of macaques (Macaca mulatta) to arm, wrist, and hand postures during movement. We find that the firing rate of individual M1 neurons is typically modulated by the kinematics of multiple joints and that small, local ensembles of M1 neurons contain sufficient information to reconstruct 25 measured joint angles (representing an estimated 10 functionally independent degrees of freedom). Beyond showing that the spiking patterns of local M1 ensembles represent a rich set of naturalistic movements involving the entire upper limb, the results also suggest that achieving high-dimensional reach and grasp actions with neuroprosthetic devices may be possible using small intracortical arrays like those already being tested in human pilot clinical trials.

  20. Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brooke E Penaluna

    Full Text Available Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011, and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year, but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

  1. Savoir-faire des populations locales des taxons du Jardin Botanique ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SARAH

    2 sept. 2013 ... RÉSUMÉ. Objectif : En vu de connaître l'usage des espèces végétales du Jardin Botanique de Bingerville par les populations locales, diverses activités de recherche ont été réalisées. Méthodologies et résultats : Le recensement de la flore a été effectué et a permis d'enregistrer 419 taxons. A l'issue d'une ...

  2. Cetuximab in locally advanced head-and-neck cancer: defining the population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, C.

    2010-01-01

    Encouraging data for targeted therapy in head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma are opening new options for treatment. Phase III trials of cetuximab, an antibody directed against the epidermal growth factor receptor (egfr) have demonstrated benefit in the locally advanced and metastatic settings. Recognizing the importance of emerging therapies, Cancer Care Ontario published guideline recommendations for egfr-targeted therapy in stage iii and iv head-and-neck cancer. The present paper takes a further look at the population for whom an offer of cetuximab therapy may be appropriate. PMID:20697514

  3. THE REFORMING EFFECT ON ARDENNES TYPE HEAVY STEEDS, ON LOCAL HORSES POPULATION FROM TIMISOARA AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. TĂPĂLAGĂ

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The study “the reforming effect of the Ardennes type heavy steeds, on local horse population from Timisoara area”, presents importance from two points of view: is a precise radiography on the number of horses raised in Timisoara area, and in the second place, this study, shows the requests and the option of the animal breeders from the respective area both the reforming level of this ones. The research made in this study shows horse breeders from Timisoara area what they have to do in the future from the horse reforming point of view.

  4. Global and local approaches to population analysis: Bonding patterns in superheavy element compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oleynichenko, Alexander; Zaitsevskii, Andréi; Romanov, Stepan; Skripnikov, Leonid V.; Titov, Anatoly V.

    2018-03-01

    Relativistic effective atomic configurations of superheavy elements Cn, Nh and Fl and their lighter homologues (Hg, Tl and Pb) in their simple compounds with fluorine and oxygen are determined using the analysis of local properties of molecular Kohn-Sham density matrices in the vicinity of heavy nuclei. The difference in populations of atomic spinors with the same orbital angular momentum and different total angular momenta is demonstrated to be essential for understanding the peculiarities of chemical bonding in superheavy element compounds. The results are fully compatible with those obtained by the relativistic iterative version of conventional projection analysis of global density matrices.

  5. Local population structure of Plasmodium: impact on malaria control and elimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chenet Stella M

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Regardless of the growing interest in detecting population structures in malarial parasites, there have been limited discussions on how to use this concept in control programmes. In such context, the effects of the parasite population structures will depend on interventions’ spatial or temporal scales. This investigation explores the problem of identifying genetic markers, in this case microsatellites, to unveil Plasmodium genetic structures that could affect decisions in the context of elimination. The study was performed in a low-transmission area, which offers a good proxy to better understand problems associated with surveillance at the final stages of malaria elimination. Methods Plasmodium vivax samples collected in Tumeremo, Venezuela, between March 2003 and November 2004 were analysed. Since Plasmodium falciparum also circulates in many low endemic areas, P. falciparum samples from the same locality and time period were included for comparison. Plasmodium vivax samples were assayed for an original set of 25 microsatellites and P. falciparum samples were assayed for 12 microsatellites. Results Not all microsatellite loci assayed offered reliable local data. A complex temporal-cluster dynamics is found in both P. vivax and P. falciparum. Such dynamics affect the numbers and the type of microsatellites required for identifying individual parasites or parasite clusters when performing cross-sectional studies. The minimum number of microsatellites required to differentiate circulating P. vivax clusters differs from the minimum number of hyper-variable microsatellites required to distinguish individuals within these clusters. Regardless the extended number of microsatellites used in P. vivax, it was not possible to separate all individual infections. Conclusions Molecular surveillance has great potential; however, it requires preliminary local studies in order to properly interpret the emerging patterns in the context of

  6. Application of wMelPop Wolbachia Strain to Crash Local Populations of Aedes aegypti.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott A Ritchie

    Full Text Available The endosymbiotic bacteria Wolbachia pipientis (wMel strain has been successfully established in several populations of Aedes aegypti, the primary dengue vector. The virulent Wolbachia strain wMelPop is known to cause several pathological impacts (increased egg mortality, life shortening, etc. reducing overall fitness in the mosquito Ae. aegypti. Increased egg mortality could substantially reduce egg banks in areas with a lengthy monsoonal dry season, and be employed to eliminate local populations. We tested this application under semi-field cage conditions. First, we determined that wMelPop infection significantly reduced the survival of desiccation-resistant eggs of the dengue vector Ae. aegypti, with shade and temperature having a significant impact; nearly all wMelPop-infected eggs failed to hatch after 6 and 10 weeks in summer and winter conditions, respectively. In laboratory selection experiments we found that egg desiccation resistance can be increased by selection, and that this effect of wMelPop infection is due to the nuclear background of the host rather than Wolbachia. We then conducted an invasion of wMelPop within a semi-field cage using sustained weekly releases of wMelPop infected mosquitoes, with fixation achieved after 9 weeks. The egg populations wMelPop infected and an uninfected control were then subjected to a simulated prolonged monsoonal dry season (2.5 months before flooding to induce hatching. The wMelPop infected eggs suffered significantly greater mortality than the controls, with only 0.67% and 4.35% of respective infected and uninfected eggs held in 99% shade hatching after 80 days. These studies suggest that wMelPop could be used to locally eliminate populations of Ae. aegypti that are exposed to prolonged dry conditions, particularly if combined with vector control.

  7. Hospitalizations for cancer in international migrants versus local population in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Oyarte

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare cancer hospital morbidity among the local population and the immigrant population in Chile. METHODS This is a prevalence study based on the analysis of hospital discharges of all the health centers of Chile. Cancer hospital discharges were characterized in 2012 according to the migratory status. The crude and specific rates of hospital morbidity for this cause were estimated for the analysis of their association with migratory status using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. RESULTS The neoplasms were the third cause of hospital discharges for immigrants and the seventh one for Chileans. The adjusted rate of cancer hospital discharges was higher for Chileans than immigrants, and the latter had fewer days of hospitalization and greater proportion of surgical interventions. In the group of immigrants, cancer hospital discharges mainly corresponded to patients belonging to the private system (46%, and in the group of Chileans they mainly corresponded to patients in the public system (71.1%. We observed a large difference in the proportion of cancer hospital discharges for patients with no health insurance between the two populations (22.6%: immigrants, 1.0%: Chileans. In both populations, the three most frequent types of cancer were: (i lymphoid tissue, hematopoietic organs, and related tissues, (ii digestive organs, and (iii breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS Models of differentiated care should be considered for immigrants, with the creation of specific programs of information, coverage, and protection against cancer. More information on this problem must be generated at the local and international level.

  8. Neutral Evolution in a Biological Population as Diffusion in Phenotype Space: Reproduction with Local Mutation but without Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Daniel John; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

    2007-03-01

    The process of “evolutionary diffusion,” i.e., reproduction with local mutation but without selection in a biological population, resembles standard diffusion in many ways. However, evolutionary diffusion allows the formation of localized peaks that undergo drift, even in the infinite population limit. We relate a microscopic evolution model to a stochastic model which we solve fully. This allows us to understand the large population limit, relates evolution to diffusion, and shows that independent local mutations act as a diffusion of interacting particles taking larger steps.

  9. Effects of perceived job insecurity on depression, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health in Korea: a population-based panel study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min-Seok; Hong, Yun-Chul; Yook, Ji-Hoo; Kang, Mo-Yeol

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the effects of job security on new development of depressive episode, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health. Data from the Korea Welfare Panel Study from 2012 to 2015 were analysed. A total of 2912 waged workers self-assessed their depressive episode, suicide ideation, and health annually by answering the questionnaire. Participants were divided into three groups according to the level of job security: high, intermediate and low. To evaluate the influence of job security, we performed survival analysis after stratification by gender with adjustment for covariates. The result was further stratified by whether the respondent was the head of household. After adjusting for covariates, men in low job security group showed significantly higher hazard ratios (HRs) for depression (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.01-1.60), suicide ideation (HR 3.25, 95% CI 1.72-6.16), and decline in self-rated health (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.16-2.59). Women showed significantly higher HR of depression in the intermediate (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.01-1.87) and low (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.12-1.99) job security group. Male head of household with low job security showed significantly higher HR of depression, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health. Non-head-of-household women with intermediate and low job security showed higher risk of depression than those with high job security. We found that perceived job insecurity is associated with the new development of depressive episode, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health.

  10. Near-Field Cosmology with Resolved Stellar Populations Around Local Volume LMC Stellar-Mass Galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlin, Jeffrey L.; Sand, David J.; Willman, Beth; Brodie, Jean P.; Crnojevic, Denija; Forbes, Duncan; Hargis, Jonathan R.; Peter, Annika; Pucha, Ragadeepika; Romanowsky, Aaron J.; Spekkens, Kristine; Strader, Jay

    2018-06-01

    We discuss our ongoing observational program to comprehensively map the entire virial volumes of roughly LMC stellar mass galaxies at distances of ~2-4 Mpc. The MADCASH (Magellanic Analog Dwarf Companions And Stellar Halos) survey will deliver the first census of the dwarf satellite populations and stellar halo properties within LMC-like environments in the Local Volume. Our results will inform our understanding of the recent DES discoveries of dwarf satellites tentatively affiliated with the LMC/SMC system. This program has already yielded the discovery of the faintest known dwarf galaxy satellite of an LMC stellar-mass host beyond the Local Group, based on deep Subaru+HyperSuprimeCam imaging reaching ~2 magnitudes below its TRGB, and at least two additional candidate satellites. We will summarize the survey results and status to date, highlighting some challenges encountered and lessons learned as we process the data for this program through a prototype LSST pipeline. Our program will examine whether LMC stellar mass dwarfs have extended stellar halos, allowing us to assess the relative contributions of in-situ stars vs. merger debris to their stellar populations and halo density profiles. We outline the constraints on galaxy formation models that will be provided by our observations of low-mass galaxy halos and their satellites.

  11. POPULATION ANALYSIS OF THE LOCAL ENDANGERED PŘEŠTICE BLACK-PIED PIG BREED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Krupa

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The pedigree analysis of the local endangered Přeštice Black-Pied pig breed (n=19 289 was performed. Animals born within the period 2012-2014 were assumed as the reference population (n=1 374. The pedigree completeness index reached 100% for four generations back. The 100 % of the genetic pool was explained by 66 ancestors. Although all animals of the reference population were inbred, 57% of them had inbreeding less than five percent. Average inbreeding, co-ancestry coefficient and rate of inbreeding reached 4.93%, 13.48% and 1.29% in reference population, respectively. The effective population size calculated by four different methods varied from 32 to 91 animals in 2014. Average generation interval, average family size for sire and dam parents was 2.5, 17.46 and 6.5 animals, respectively. Total number of founders, effective number of founders, effective number of founders’ genomes and effective number of non-founders genomes reached values 299, 98.05, 21.92 and 28.23 founders, respectively. The average genetic diversity (GD loss was 13.71% in reference population. The GD loss has increased within the last three year period mainly due to the random genetic drift (77.6% and by unequal contribution of founders (22.4%. The Preštice Black-Pied breed is highly endangered with GD loss. Mating of closely related animals has to be prevented in breeding and mating program of this breed.

  12. The combined effect of bottom-up and top-down factors on life history and reproduction of Daphnia in the field: is a strategic dilemma underlying population declines?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan HÜLSMANN

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In a detailed field study covering three years, population dynamics, life history shifts and reproductive patterns of a population of Daphnia galeata were investigated in relation to food availability and dynamics of young of the year fish, the main vertebrate predators. In all years an increase of Daphnia abundance in spring was associated with declining food conditions (clear water stage. The size at maturity (SAM during this period was high and even increased, brood size declined, while egg volume increased. These patterns may be explained as response to food limitation. A decline of Daphnia abundance in every year was associated with increasing food conditions and the end of the clear water stage. Egg volumes as well as the size of egg-carrying daphnids also decreased, while brood size remained at low values. In two years in which these changes were particularly pronounced, the available fish data suggest that both the biomass (determining predation pressure, as well as the size of the fish (determining size selection are important for the observed dynamics. No decrease of SAM occurred as long as fish were smaller than 25 mm TL, when they are still gape-limited and not able to feed on the largest size-classes of Daphnia. Although fish biomass, which should correspond to kairomone level, would have suggested a reduction of SAM as induced defence, probably the selection of small (egg-carrying daphnids by small fish, besides severe food limitation, prevented this response to become effective. The sudden decline of SAM at the end of the clear water stage may not be explained by gradual phenotypic responses or indirect demographic effects, but must be due to an alternation of generations. SAM may be further reduced by direct and indirect effects of predation, interacting with increasing food levels. The Daphnia population is most vulnerable to predation at the time when the new generation takes over. Consequently, predation impact depends on

  13. Mangrove forest decline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malik, Abdul; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    Mangrove forests in the tropics and subtropics grow in saline sediments in coastal and estuarine environments. Preservation of mangrove forests is important for many reasons, including the prevention of coastal erosion and seawater intrusion; the provision of spawning, nursery, and feeding grounds...... of diverse marine biota; and for direct use (such as firewood, charcoal, and construction material)—all of which benefit the sustainability of local communities. However, for many mangrove areas of the world, unsustainable resource utilization and the profit orientation of communities have often led to rapid...... and severe mangrove loss with serious consequences. The mangrove forests of the Takalar District, South Sulawesi, are studied here as a case area that has suffered from degradation and declining spatial extent during recent decades. On the basis of a post-classification comparison of change detection from...

  14. Ovulation rate and early embryonic survival rate in female rabbits of a synthetic line and a local Algerian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Belabbas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A higher litter size at birth has been reported in female rabbits from a Synthetic line than in those of the Local Algerian population. The aim of this work was to analyse whether this difference in litter size was due to a higher ovulation rate and/or embryonic survival rate in Synthetic line than in Local Algerian population. In total, 24 multiparous female rabbits from Synthetic line and 23 from Local population were used in this experiment. Litter size at birth was recorded up to the first 3 parities. Litter size was 20% higher in Synthetic line than Local population. At their 4th gestation, the females were euthanized at 72 h post coitum. Synthetic line females had 50% more ova and embryos than those of Local population (+4.42 ova and +3.92 embryos, respectively. Synthetic line displayed a lower percentage of normal embryos and a larger number of unfertilized oocytes than Local population (–2.81% and +0.64 oocytes, respectively, but differences were not relevant. Synthetic line showed a lesser embryonic stage of development at 72 h post coitum, showing a higher percentage of early morulae (31.50 vs. 8.50% and a lower percentage of compact morulae (51.45 vs. 78.65% than Local population. No relevant difference was found for early embryonic survival rate between Synthetic line and Local population. In conclusion, the difference in litter size was mainly due to a higher ovulation rate in the Synthetic line, allowing more embryos to develop in this line.

  15. Performance of the 16-Item Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline for the Elderly (IQCODE) in an Arabic-Speaking Older Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phung, Thien Kieu Thi; Chaaya, Monique; Asmar, Khalil

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIM: The North African and Middle Eastern region has high illiteracy rates among older people, making direct cognitive testing challenging. Validated screening instruments for dementia in Arabic are lacking. We aimed to validate the Arabic version of the 16-item Informant Questionnaire...... on Cognitive Decline for the Elderly (A-IQCODE 16) for screening for dementia through an informant. METHODS: 236 Lebanese participants older than 65 years, 143 with normal cognition and 93 with mild-to-moderate dementia according to the DSM-IV criteria, and their informants were recruited. Half...

  16. Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

    2018-01-18

    Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of

  17. Predator-induced morphological plasticity across local populations of a freshwater snail.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christer Brönmark

    Full Text Available The expression of anti-predator adaptations may vary on a spatial scale, favouring traits that are advantageous in a given predation regime. Besides, evolution of different developmental strategies depends to a large extent on the grain of the environment and may result in locally canalized adaptations or, alternatively, the evolution of phenotypic plasticity as different predation regimes may vary across habitats. We investigated the potential for predator-driven variability in shell morphology in a freshwater snail, Radix balthica, and whether found differences were a specialized ecotype adaptation or a result of phenotypic plasticity. Shell shape was quantified in snails from geographically separated pond populations with and without molluscivorous fish. Subsequently, in a common garden experiment we investigated reaction norms of snails from populations' with/without fish when exposed to chemical cues from tench (Tinca tinca, a molluscivorous fish. We found that snails from fish-free ponds had a narrow shell with a well developed spire, whereas snails that coexisted with fish had more rotund shells with a low spire, a shell morphology known to increase survival rate from shell-crushing predators. The common garden experiment mirrored the results from the field survey and showed that snails had similar reaction norms in response to chemical predator cues, i.e. the expression of shell shape was independent of population origin. Finally, we found significant differences for the trait means among populations, within each pond category (fish/fish free, suggesting a genetic component in the determination of shell morphology that has evolved independently across ponds.

  18. Horticultural activity predicts later localized limb status in a contemporary pre-industrial population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stieglitz, Jonathan; Trumble, Benjamin C; Kaplan, Hillard; Gurven, Michael

    2017-07-01

    Modern humans may have gracile skeletons due to low physical activity levels and mechanical loading. Tests using pre-historic skeletons are limited by the inability to assess behavior directly, while modern industrialized societies possess few socio-ecological features typical of human evolutionary history. Among Tsimane forager-horticulturalists, we test whether greater activity levels and, thus, increased loading earlier in life are associated with greater later-life bone status and diminished age-related bone loss. We used quantitative ultrasonography to assess radial and tibial status among adults aged 20+ years (mean ± SD age = 49 ± 15; 52% female). We conducted systematic behavioral observations to assess earlier-life activity patterns (mean time lag between behavioural observation and ultrasound = 12 years). For a subset of participants, physical activity was again measured later in life, via accelerometry, to determine whether earlier-life time use is associated with later-life activity levels. Anthropometric and demographic data were collected during medical exams. Structural decline with age is reduced for the tibia (female: -0.25 SDs/decade; male: 0.05 SDs/decade) versus radius (female: -0.56 SDs/decade; male: -0.20 SDs/decade), which is expected if greater loading mitigates bone loss. Time allocation to horticulture, but not hunting, positively predicts later-life radial status (β Horticulture  = 0.48, p = 0.01), whereas tibial status is not significantly predicted by subsistence or sedentary leisure participation. Patterns of activity- and age-related change in bone status indicate localized osteogenic responses to loading, and are generally consistent with the logic of bone functional adaptation. Nonmechanical factors related to subsistence lifestyle moderate the association between activity patterns and bone structure. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. The Garfagnina goat: a zootechnical overview of a local dairy population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, M; Salari, F; Altomonte, I; Rignanese, D; Chessa, S; Gigliotti, C; Caroli, A

    2010-10-01

    Domestic livestock with a limited distribution are increasingly recognized in the action plans of the European Union as a reason for protecting rural land. The preservation and enhancement of the native germplasm and traits selected through the ages in different areas of farming is the first step in increasing typical products at a time when high quality products are increasingly in demand. This is the first time that a zootechnical overview has been performed on the Italian native goat population named "Garfagnina," which is registered on the Tuscan regional repertory of genetic resources at risk of extinction. The aim of the study was to give added value to this population by focusing on particular traits that could be used for promoting typical products. Data on the size of the local goats, zoometric measures, breeding system, milk quality, and genetic polymorphisms were collected to get insight into the current state of the population of this type of goat. The native goat population is reared in Tuscany in central Italy, mostly for its milk. The local goat farms considered in our study are located in the hills and mountains of the northwestern Tuscan Apennine area. For every farm we measured at least 10% of the reproductive females (273), randomly chosen, and all reproductive males (47) for a total of 320 subjects. Regarding the management of the animals and the feeding system, semi-extensive farming is practiced in all the flocks. From a morphological point of view the animals are relatively homogeneous, especially in terms of zoometric data, whereas they show a wider variability regarding coat. Milk gross and fatty acid composition were similar to that reported in the literature for bulk goat milk. Moreover, the average of somatic cell count and standard plate count found in Garfagnina goat milk indicated good hygienic farm management and correct milking practices, although milking is mainly manual. The average number of globules per milliliter found in

  20. Multi-atlas labeling with population-specific template and non-local patch-based label fusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonov, Vladimir; Coupé, Pierrick; Eskildsen, Simon Fristed

    We propose a new method combining a population-specific nonlinear template atlas approach with non-local patch-based structure segmentation for whole brain segmentation into individual structures. This way, we benefit from the efficient intensity-driven segmentation of the non-local means framework...... and from the global shape constraints imposed by the nonlinear template matching....

  1. Local knowledge and perceptions of animal population abundances by communities adjacent to the northern Gonarezhou National Park, Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gandiwa, E.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding animal abundances and population trends is a fundamental goal of ecology. The aim of this study was to examine local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by local people bordering the northern Gonarezhou National Park (GNP), Zimbabwe, concerning domestic and wild animal species abundances

  2. The Germans revisiting Gakovo: Encounters, cooperation and reconciliation of the former and present local populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krel Aleksandar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a case study about a reunion of the evicted members of the German national minority in Vojvodina, who after almost five decades came to visit their homeland, and the local population in Gakovo. The case study attests about lengthy and very complicated process in resolving post-conflict situations. The process’ launch is dependent on the willingness of the individuals involved to face not only one’s own pain caused by the enemy, but also on ability to comprehend, during an encounter with “the dark side of one’s past”, sufferings and humiliation experienced by the adversary. Awareness and acceptance of one’s own responsibility in the conflict are a prerequisite for forgiveness and reconciliation of the opposing parties. The outcome of this process is uncertain to the very end and conditioned upon the entire network of interlocking political, economic and cultural factors.

  3. The health impact of tourism on local and indigenous populations in resource-poor countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Irmgard

    2008-09-01

    In the vast Travel Health literature there is still a considerable dearth on tourism's impact on local communities. This review attempts to remedy the situation. Its focus is on potential health impacts on populations living at tourist destinations outside the industrialised world. To facilitate a better understanding of how health is linked to tourism today, a brief overview of the historical and theoretical evolution of tourism is presented. Ecotourism is given special attention as it is perceived as a version of the industry that is more benign on environment and people. After discussing Indigenous Tourism, a variety of potential health implications is outlined. These follow a previously suggested classification of indirect and direct impacts, with the indirect impacts being based on economic, environmental, socio-cultural and, more recently, political impacts, and the direct impacts originating from immediate encounters between tourism and people. Finally, the urgent need for more research is highlighted, and some solutions to minimize health impact are suggested.

  4. INVESTIGATION OF ALFALFA LOCAL POPULATIONS FOR CREATION OF NEW BREEDING GERMPLAZM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tihomir Čupić

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Yield of dry matter and green mass are important factors in selection of fodder crop cultivars. Low genetic gain was achieved during the long time of fodder crops breeding for yield. Therefore we investigated possibility of using local populations of alfalfa for yield increase with direct and indirect selection. Strong and significant influence of genotypes and environments was recorded for all examined traits and their interactions at the level p<0.01. The highest variability was recorded for green mass yield 48.21%; while the lowest variation was for height 13.18%. High share of genotype variance as well as high heritability were recorded in total variance for the traits number of stem and plant height.

  5. Dietary intake of trace elements and magnesium by local population around tailings pond at Jaduguda

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jha, V.N.; Sethy, N.K.; Sahoo, S.K.; Shukla, A.K.; Tripathi, R.M.; Puranik, V.D.

    2007-01-01

    Dietary intake of trace elements by local population residing within 0.5 Kms from tailings pond was assessed. Intake of Zn, Cu and Fe through processed whole meal vegetarian was estimated to be 28%, 45% and 18% of the Indian national average intake. Intake of manganese is more than the national average. This can be attributed to its elevated concentration in abiotic components of the ecosystem and easy bioavailability in the concerned environment. Intake of trace elements through non-veg meal is Zn: 0.94%, Cu: 0.75%, Mn: 1.83%, Fe: 0.72% whereas, intake through total vegetable is Zn: 1.85%, Cu: 1.8%, Mn: 4.5%, Fe 1% of the national average. (author)

  6. Population, Environment, and Climate in the Albertine Rift: Understanding Local Impacts of Regional Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, J.; Ryan, S. J.; Diem, J.; Palace, M. W.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is of critical concern for conservation and to develop appropriate policies and responses, it is important not only to anticipate the nature of changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local people. The Albertine Rift in East Africa is one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense settlement, extreme poverty, and land conversion. We synthesize ongoing NSF-CNH research, where Ugandan park landscapes are examined to understand the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. Kibale National Park, the main study site, exemplifies the challenges facing many parks because of its isolation within a densely populated agricultural landscape. Three separate household surveys (n=251, 130, 100) reveal that the most perceived benefits provided by Kibale were ecosystem services and farmers cite rainfall as one of the park's most important benefits, but are also concerned with variable precipitation. Analysis of 30+ years of daily rainfall station data shows total rainfall has not changed significantly, but timing and transitions of seasons and intra-seasonal distribution are highly variable, which may contribute to changes in farming schedules and threaten food security. Further, the contrast between land use/cover change over 25 years around the park and the stability of forest within the park underscores the need to understand this landscape for future sustainability planning and the inevitable population growth outside its boundaries. Understanding climate change impacts and feedbacks to and from socio-ecological systems are important to address the dual challenge of biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation.

  7. Approach to assessing local socio-cultural impacts using projections of population growth and composition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldwin, T. E.; Poetsch, R.

    1977-08-01

    All assessment of future domestic development projects assumes that the problems to be examined have been properly identified and defined before the application of a projection technique. An attempt is made to codify socio-cultural problems mentioned in literature and clarify how existing demographic projection techniques can be applied to assessing the problems. The relationship between changes in local population size and composition induced by in-migration and the potential for socio-cultural incompatibilities is described heuristically. For simplification, the problems expected to emerge from differences in demographic composition are classified into three categories: (1) service needs, such as those for housing, recreation, and education; (2) types of social organizations related to capacities for, or constraints on, reaping the benefits of rapid economic development and social changes (e.g., employment and income); and (3) attitudes, values, and cultural perspectives. These areas of concern are very broad, and quantitative projections of population size and composition are more easily related to the first than to the third. Although demographic projection provides a valuable tool for estimating future social change, the knowledge about cause and effect is not sufficient to support the quantification of socio-cultural impact. Therefore, the projections are used only as relative indicators and the assessments of socio-cultural impact based on them are qualitative only. Therefore, identification and assessment of socio-cultural impacts are a means of developing plans to overcome the expected problems.

  8. The nine lives of a threatened felid in a human-dominated landscape: assessing population decline drivers of the guiña (Leopardus guigna)

    OpenAIRE

    Gálvez, Nicolás

    2015-01-01

    The world's human population and an expanding agricultural frontier are exerting increasing pressure on the Earth's systems that sustain life resulting in unprecedented levels of biodiversity loss. Carnivores, which play a key role in ecosystem function and integrity, are also particularly threatened by habitat loss and killing by humans in response to livestock predation. At the same time carnivores, particularly felids show a paucity of studies that suggests population assessments and long-...

  9. Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population.

    OpenAIRE

    Timothée Bonnet; Peter Wandeler; Glauco Camenisch; Erik Postma

    2017-01-01

    In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions: Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called ‘stasis paradox’ highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic enviro...

  10. Chinese culture and fertility decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C; Jia, S

    1992-01-01

    Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self

  11. Determination of Mean Glycated Haemoglobin in Healthy Adults of a Local Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nida, Sumbal; Khan, Dilshad Ahmed; Ijaz, Aamir; Khan, Muhammad Qaiser Alam; Aleef, Hira; Abbasi, Maria

    2017-07-01

    To determine the mean hemoglobin HbA1C levels of disease-free adults in a local population and its optimum cutoff for the diagnosis of diabetes. Cross-sectional study. Department of Chemical Pathology and Endocrinology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rawalpindi, from January to September 2015. Healthy subjects aged 18 years and above of either gender were recruited from local population. Pregnant ladies and individuals with known diabetes, chronic kidney disease, chronic liver disease, congestive cardiac failure, anemia, hemoglobinopathies, mental illness and individuals on glucocorticoid therapy were excluded. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) or 2-hour plasma glucose (2-h PG) was analyzed using hexokinase methodology and glycated hemoglobin (Hb A1C) was also analyzed using turbidimetric inhibition immunoassay technique. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. Differences among the groups were tested by one-way ANOVA, and p <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Among 558 subjects, 88.8% (496) were normoglycaemic (NG), 5.7% (32) were with impaired glucose fasting (IFG), and 5.4% (30) were diagnosed with diabetes mellitus (DM). A1C was 5.00 ±0.44% in NG and 6.28 ±1.16% in diabetics. FPG in NG was 4.55 ±0.95 mmol/Land in diabetics was 8.28 ±1.78 mmol/L. The optimal HbA1C cutoff value for diagnosis of DM was at 6.05% (AUC 0.827 95% CI 0.732 to 0.923, p ≤0.05 with its sensitivity of 53.3% and specificity of 98.5%. However, HbA1C showed suboptimal sensitivity and specificity for prediabetes. The mean HbAIC and cutoff point for diabetes in the study population is 5.07 ±0.58% and 6.05%, respectively (AUC 0.827, 95% CI: 0.732 to 0.923, p<0.001) with 53.3% sensitivity and 98.5% specificity.

  12. Determination of Mean Glycated Haemoglobin in Healthy Adults of a Local Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nida, S.; Ijaz, A.; Aleef, H.; Khan, D. A.; Khan, M. Q. A.; Abbasi, M.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To determine the mean hemoglobin HbA1C levels of disease-free adults in a local population and its optimum cutoff for the diagnosis of diabetes. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Chemical Pathology and Endocrinology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rawalpindi, from January to September 2015. Methodology: Healthy subjects aged 18 years and above of either gender were recruited from local population. Pregnant ladies and individuals with known diabetes, chronic kidney disease, chronic liver disease, congestive cardiac failure, anemia, hemoglobinopathies, mental illness and individuals on glucocorticoid therapy were excluded. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) or 2-hour plasma glucose (2-h PG) was analyzed using hexokinase methodology and glycated hemoglobin (Hb A1C) was also analyzed using turbidimetric inhibition immunoassay technique. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. Differences among the groups were tested by one-way ANOVA, and p <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Among 558 subjects, 88.8% (496) were normoglycaemic (NG), 5.7% (32) were with impaired glucose fasting (IFG), and 5.4% (30) were diagnosed with diabetes mellitus (DM). A1C was 5.00 0.44% in NG and 6.28 +-1.16% in diabetics. FPG in NG was 4.55 +-0.95 mmol/L and in diabetics was 8.28 1.78 mmol/L. The optimal HbA1C cutoff value for diagnosis of DM was at 6.05% (AUC 0.827 95% CI 0.732 to 0.923, p <=0.05 with its sensitivity of 53.3% and specificity of 98.5%. However, HbA1C showed suboptimal sensitivity and specificity for prediabetes. Conclusion: The mean HbAIC and cutoff point for diabetes in the study population is 5.07 +-0.58% and 6.05%, respectively (AUC 0.827, 95% CI: 0.732 to 0.923, p<0.001) with 53.3% sensitivity and 98.5% specificity. (author)

  13. Are habitat fragmentation, local adaptation and isolation-by-distance driving population divergence in wild rice Oryza rufipogon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yao; Vrieling, Klaas; Liao, Hui; Xiao, Manqiu; Zhu, Yongqing; Rong, Jun; Zhang, Wenju; Wang, Yuguo; Yang, Ji; Chen, Jiakuan; Song, Zhiping

    2013-11-01

    Habitat fragmentation weakens the connection between populations and is accompanied with isolation by distance (IBD) and local adaptation (isolation by adaptation, IBA), both leading to genetic divergence between populations. To understand the evolutionary potential of a population and to formulate proper conservation strategies, information on the roles of IBD and IBA in driving population divergence is critical. The putative ancestor of Asian cultivated rice (Oryza sativa) is endangered in China due to habitat loss and fragmentation. We investigated the genetic variation in 11 Chinese Oryza rufipogon populations using 79 microsatellite loci to infer the effects of habitat fragmentation, IBD and IBA on genetic structure. Historical and current gene flows were found to be rare (mh  = 0.0002-0.0013, mc  = 0.007-0.029), indicating IBD and resulting in a high level of population divergence (FST  = 0.343). High within-population genetic variation (HE  = 0.377-0.515), relatively large effective population sizes (Ne  = 96-158), absence of bottlenecks and limited gene flow were found, demonstrating little impact of recent habitat fragmentation on these populations. Eleven gene-linked microsatellite loci were identified as outliers, indicating local adaptation. Hierarchical AMOVA and partial Mantel tests indicated that population divergence of Chinese O. rufipogon was significantly correlated with environmental factors, especially habitat temperature. Common garden trials detected a significant adaptive population divergence associated with latitude. Collectively, these findings imply that IBD due to historical rather than recent fragmentation, followed by local adaptation, has driven population divergence in O. rufipogon. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Analysis of Latino populations from GALA and MEC studies reveals genomic loci with biased local ancestry estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Sankararaman, Sriram; Torgerson, Dara G.; Gignoux, Christopher; Zaitlen, Noah; Eng, Celeste; Rodriguez-Cintron, William; Chapela, Rocio; Ford, Jean G.; Avila, Pedro C.; Rodriguez-Santana, Jose; Chen, Gary K.; Le Marchand, Loic; Henderson, Brian; Reich, David; Haiman, Christopher A.; Gonzàlez Burchard, Esteban; Halperin, Eran

    2013-01-01

    Motivation: Local ancestry analysis of genotype data from recently admixed populations (e.g. Latinos, African Americans) provides key insights into population history and disease genetics. Although methods for local ancestry inference have been extensively validated in simulations (under many unrealistic assumptions), no empirical study of local ancestry accuracy in Latinos exists to date. Hence, interpreting findings that rely on local ancestry in Latinos is challenging. Results: Here, we use 489 nuclear families from the mainland USA, Puerto Rico and Mexico in conjunction with 3204 unrelated Latinos from the Multiethnic Cohort study to provide the first empirical characterization of local ancestry inference accuracy in Latinos. Our approach for identifying errors does not rely on simulations but on the observation that local ancestry in families follows Mendelian inheritance. We measure the rate of local ancestry assignments that lead to Mendelian inconsistencies in local ancestry in trios (MILANC), which provides a lower bound on errors in the local ancestry estimates. We show that MILANC rates observed in simulations underestimate the rate observed in real data, and that MILANC varies substantially across the genome. Second, across a wide range of methods, we observe that loci with large deviations in local ancestry also show enrichment in MILANC rates. Therefore, local ancestry estimates at such loci should be interpreted with caution. Finally, we reconstruct ancestral haplotype panels to be used as reference panels in local ancestry inference and show that ancestry inference is significantly improved by incoroprating these reference panels. Availability and implementation: We provide the reconstructed reference panels together with the maps of MILANC rates as a public resource for researchers analyzing local ancestry in Latinos at http://bogdanlab.pathology.ucla.edu. Contact: bpasaniuc@mednet.ucla.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are

  15. local

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abílio Amiguinho

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of socio-educational territorialisation in rural contexts is the topic of this text. The theme corresponds to a challenge to address it having as main axis of discussion either the problem of social exclusion or that of local development. The reasons to locate the discussion in this last field of analysis are discussed in the first part of the text. Theoretical and political reasons are there articulated because the question is about projects whose intentions and practices call for the political both in the theoretical debate and in the choices that anticipate intervention. From research conducted for several years, I use contributions that aim at discuss and enlighten how school can be a potential locus of local development. Its identification and recognition as local institution (either because of those that work and live in it or because of those that act in the surrounding context are crucial steps to progressively constitute school as a partner for development. The promotion of the local values and roots, the reconstruction of socio-personal and local identities, the production of sociabilities and the equation and solution of shared problems were the dimensions of a socio-educative intervention, markedly globalising. This scenario, as it is argued, was also, intentionally, one of transformation and of deliberate change of school and of the administration of the educative territoires.

  16. Lung function decline in COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tantucci C

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Claudio Tantucci, Denise ModinaUnit of Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, ItalyAbstract: The landmark study of Fletcher and Peto on the natural history of tobacco smoke-related chronic airflow obstruction suggested that decline in the forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is slow at the beginning, becoming faster with more advanced disease. The present authors reviewed spirometric data of COPD patients included in the placebo arms of recent clinical trials to assess the lung function decline of each stage, defined according to the severity of airflow obstruction as proposed by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD guidelines. In large COPD populations the mean rate of FEV1 decline in GOLD stages II and III is between 47 and 79 mL/year and 56 and 59 mL/year, respectively, and lower than 35 mL/year in GOLD stage IV. Few data on FEV1 decline are available for GOLD stage I. Hence, the loss of lung function, assessed as expiratory airflow reduction, seems more accelerated and therefore more relevant in the initial phases of COPD. To have an impact on the natural history of COPD, it is logical to look at the effects of treatment in the earlier stages.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, decline, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, FEV1

  17. Femoral nerve blockade using various concentrations of local anesthetic for knee arthroscopy in the pediatric population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veneziano G

    2016-11-01

    mg/kg (interquartile ranges [IQR]: 0 mg, 0.03 mg/kg compared to 0.02 mg/kg (IQR: 0, 0.08 mg/kg in the ropivacaine 0.2% group and 0.01 mg/kg (IQR: 0, 0.08 mg/kg in the bupivacaine 0.25% group (p=0.009. Median PACU time was shortest in the ropivacaine 0.5% group (47 min; IQR: 36, 68 min compared to the ropivacaine 0.2% (58 min; IQR: 41, 77 and bupivacaine 0.25% (54 min; IQR: 35, 75 min groups (p=0.040. Among groups, there were no significant differences in first postoperative pain scores or incidence of nausea and vomiting. No patient in any group experienced a serious adverse event.Conclusion: The results suggest that ropivacaine 0.5% for FNB offers superior postoperative analgesia in the form of decreased postoperative opioid consumption and earlier PACU/hospital discharge, when compared to ropivacaine 0.2% and bupivacaine 0.25% in the pediatric population.Level of evidence: III, Retrospective Comparative Study. Keywords: anesthesia, regional, nerve block, pain, postoperative, local anesthetic, child, adolescent

  18. Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothée Bonnet

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called "stasis paradox" highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of

  19. Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wandeler, Peter; Camenisch, Glauco

    2017-01-01

    In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called “stasis paradox” highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic) positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative) genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of selection that is

  20. Advanced long-term bird banding and climate data mining in spring confirm passerine population declines for the Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Shengwu; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Li, Xianda; Ouyang, Yanlan

    2016-09-01

    The migration of birds is fascinating for humans but it's also a serious environmental monitoring and management issue on a global level. Bird banding using mistnets has been the method of choice for decades worldwide; linking these data with climate data allows to infer on global warming and outlier events. However, good methods to achieve this effectively in time and space for many species are still missing; data for Asia are specifically sparse and often 'messy'. Here we present a data mining summary information for data from two bird banding stations (Gaofeng and Qingfeng) along the vast Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway. Bird data were collected during spring 2002-2011 with standardized techniques and then linked with related climate data in the banding as well as the wintering sites. This creates a complex data set which is based on a decade and which includes many predictors. This first-time data mining analysis with 'data cloning' and machine learning methods (boosted regression trees) shows how to extract the major signals in this unique dataset from highly correlated and interacting predictors. Our results indicate a large-scale warming trend for the flyway, with a start in 2003, and a freezing rain outlier event in 2008; the last years remained on a rather warm level. All evidence along this vast flyway supports major changes, warming trends, habitat losses and consequently strong passerine declines. Presumably human pressures are a major factor either way and we propose to address these problems immediately for betterment if meaningful conservation targets are to be met.

  1. Do Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems benefit local populations? Maternal care utilisation in Butajira HDSS, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mesganaw Fantahun Afework

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The benefits of Health and Demographic Surveillance sites for local populations have been the topic of discussion as countries such as Ethiopia take efforts to achieve their Millennium Development Goal targets, on which they lag behind. Ethiopia's maternal mortality ratio is very high, and in the 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (2011 EDHS it was estimated to be 676/100,000 live births. Recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD and estimates based on the United Nations model reported better, but still unacceptably high, figures of 497/100,000 and 420/100,000 live births for 2013. In the 2011 EDHS, antenatal care (ANC utilization was estimated at 34%, and delivery in health facilities was only 10%. Objectives: To compare maternal health service utilization among populations in a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS to non-HDSS populations in Butajira district, south central Ethiopia. Design: A community-based comparative cross-sectional study was conducted in January and February 2012 among women who had delivered in the 2 years before the survey. Results: A total of 2,296 women were included in the study. One thousand eight hundred and sixty two (81.1% had attended ANC at least once, and 37% of the women had attended ANC at least four times. A quarter of the women delivered their last child in a health facility. Of the women living outside the HDSS areas, 715 (75.3% attended ANC at least once compared to 85.1% of women living in the HDSS areas [adjusted odds ratio (AOR 0.59; 95% CI 0.46, 0.74]. Of the women living outside the HDSS areas, only 170 (17.9% delivered in health facilities and were assisted by skilled attendants during delivery, whereas 30.0% of those living in HDSS areas delivered in health facilities (AOR 0.66; 95% CI 0.48, 0.91. Conclusion: This paper provides possible evidence that living in an HDSS site has a positive influence on maternal health. In addition, there may be a positive influence on

  2. Do Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems benefit local populations? Maternal care utilisation in Butajira HDSS, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afework, Mesganaw Fantahun; Gebregiorgis, Seifu Hagos; Roro, Meselech Assegid; Lemma, Alemayehu Mekonnen; Ahmed, Saifuddin

    2014-01-01

    The benefits of Health and Demographic Surveillance sites for local populations have been the topic of discussion as countries such as Ethiopia take efforts to achieve their Millennium Development Goal targets, on which they lag behind. Ethiopia's maternal mortality ratio is very high, and in the 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (2011 EDHS) it was estimated to be 676/100,000 live births. Recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and estimates based on the United Nations model reported better, but still unacceptably high, figures of 497/100,000 and 420/100,000 live births for 2013. In the 2011 EDHS, antenatal care (ANC) utilization was estimated at 34%, and delivery in health facilities was only 10%. To compare maternal health service utilization among populations in a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) to non-HDSS populations in Butajira district, south central Ethiopia. A community-based comparative cross-sectional study was conducted in January and February 2012 among women who had delivered in the 2 years before the survey. A total of 2,296 women were included in the study. One thousand eight hundred and sixty two (81.1%) had attended ANC at least once, and 37% of the women had attended ANC at least four times. A quarter of the women delivered their last child in a health facility. Of the women living outside the HDSS areas, 715 (75.3%) attended ANC at least once compared to 85.1% of women living in the HDSS areas [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.59; 95% CI 0.46, 0.74]. Of the women living outside the HDSS areas, only 170 (17.9%) delivered in health facilities and were assisted by skilled attendants during delivery, whereas 30.0% of those living in HDSS areas delivered in health facilities (AOR 0.66; 95% CI 0.48, 0.91). This paper provides possible evidence that living in an HDSS site has a positive influence on maternal health. In addition, there may be a positive influence on those living nearby or in the same district where an HDSS is

  3. Emerging factors associated with the decline of a gray fox population and multi-scale land cover associations of mesopredators in the Chicago metropolitan area.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willingham, Alison N.; /Ohio State U.

    2008-01-01

    Statewide surveys of furbearers in Illinois indicate gray (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) and red (Vulpes vulpes) foxes have experienced substantial declines in relative abundance, whereas other species such as raccoons (Procyon lotor) and coyotes (Canis latrans) have exhibited dramatic increases during the same time period. The cause of the declines of gray and red foxes has not been identified, and the current status of gray foxes remains uncertain. Therefore, I conducted a large-scale predator survey and tracked radiocollared gray foxes from 2004 to 2007 in order to determine the distribution, survival, cause-specific mortality sources and land cover associations of gray foxes in an urbanized region of northeastern Illinois, and examined the relationships between the occurrence of gray fox and the presence other species of mesopredators, specifically coyotes and raccoons. Although generalist mesopredators are common and can reach high densities in many urban areas their urban ecology is poorly understood due to their secretive nature and wariness of humans. Understanding how mesopredators utilize urbanized landscapes can be useful in the management and control of disease outbreaks, mitigation of nuisance wildlife issues, and gaining insight into how mesopredators shape wildlife communities in highly fragmented areas. I examined habitat associations of raccoons, opossums (Didelphis virginiana), domestic cats (Felis catus), coyotes, foxes (gray and red), and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) at multiple spatial scales in an urban environment. Gray fox occurrence was rare and widely dispersed, and survival estimates were similar to other studies. Gray fox occurrence was negatively associated with natural and semi-natural land cover types. Fox home range size increased with increasing urban development suggesting that foxes may be negatively influenced by urbanization. Gray fox occurrence was not associated with coyote or raccoon presence. However, spatial avoidance and

  4. Decline traffic information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Plessis, K [Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Sydney (Australia)

    2007-09-06

    BHP Billion (BHPB) Cannington has experienced problems in regards to their traffic flow in the decline at the mine. The problems related to reports on near misses of vehicles moving towards each other in the decline. The decline is also to narrow for trucks to pass each other and the operators need to be aware of oncoming traffic in the decline to ensure they could take early evasive steps to ensure the rules of right of way in the decline are adhered to. BHPB Cannington requested CSC to conduct a problem analysis and to provide a solutions proposal to Cannington. The solution was put forward as an augmentation of their current safety procedures used with in the decline. During this phase of the project CSC developed a solutions architecture which involved the use of Active (Radio Frequency Identification) RFID tagging which will enable vehicle movement tracking on a real time basis after which the appropriate traffic movement can be relayed to the operators in the decline. The primary objective of the DTIS is to provide accurate information of traffic movement in the decline and present that information to the operators of the decline IN THE DECLINE upon which they would make their decisions. (orig.)

  5. [Stingrays in rivers in southeastern Brazil: occurrence localities and impact on the population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrone Neto, Domingos; Haddad Junior, Vidal

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, our aim was to describe the process of colonization of the upper Paraná basin, southeastern Brazil, by stingrays, showing the current situation, likely trend and impact caused and discussing some management actions and mitigation measures. Interviews were held with riverbank people and health professionals, to gather information on occurrences of stingrays and accidents associated with these animals, along with underwater observations and collection of specimens, between 2004 and 2009 in localities in the States of São Paulo, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, in the southeastern, southern and part of the central-western regions of Brazil. Three species of stingrays were identified in the study area, thus demonstrating that they were using the paths opened by the Tietê-Paraná Waterway to disperse. Sixteen victims of accidents involving these animals were found, mainly bathers and fishermen. Attention was drawn to the fact that these cases had not been reported, yet they presented high morbidity with notable temporary incapacity for work. This is the first report on biological invasion involving species of elasmobranchs in the literature and, because stingrays are colonizing densely populated areas and are expanding their range of distribution each year, it can be expected that their negative interactions with humans will intensify, with important changes in the epidemiological profile of accidents due to venomous animals occurring in southeastern Brazil.

  6. Treatment profile and complications associated with cryotherapy for localized prostate cancer: A population-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Calpurnyia B.; Jang, Thomas L.; Shao, Yu-Hsuan; Kabadi, Shaum; Moore, Dirk F.; Lu-Yao, Grace L.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the treatment patterns and 3 to 12-month complication rates associated with receiving prostate cryotherapy in a population-based study. Men > 65 years diagnosed with incident localized prostate cancer in Surveillance Epidemiology End Results (SEER) - Medicare linked database from 2004 to 2005 were identified. A total of 21,344 men were included in the study, of which 380 were treated initially with cryotherapy. Recipients of cryotherapy versus aggressive forms of prostate therapy (i.e. radical prostatectomy or radiation therapy) were more likely to be older, have one co-morbidity, low income, live in the South, and be diagnosed with indolent cancer. Complication rates increased from 3 to 12 months following cryotherapy. By the twelfth month, the rates for urinary incontinence, lower urinary tract obstruction, erectile dysfunction, and bowel bleeding reached 9.8%, 28.7%, 20.1%, and 3.3%, respectively. Diagnoses of hydronephrosis, urinary fistula, or bowel fistula were not evident. The rates of corrective invasive procedures for lower urinary tract obstruction and erectile dysfunction were both cryotherapy were modest; however, diagnoses for lower urinary tract obstruction and erectile dysfunction were common. PMID:21519347

  7. Local self-organization of population and its role in the development of the civil society in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Berezinskiy

    2017-07-01

    It has been shown that in general the bodies of self-organization of population are focused on the protection of social, eco-nomic and cultural issues, such as the organization and activities of local self-performed in compliance with law; transparency; voluntarily taking on certain powers of the respective local council; territoriality; election; accountability and responsibility to the respective councils; accountability and responsibility to the residents who have chosen community organizations; financial and institutional independence. It has been proven that the local self-organization of population in Ukraine plays an important role in the development of civil society, reflects the level of democratization at the local level and in the whole state. The experience of democratization of Ukrainian society confirms that democracy originates «from below», that is, with the personal participation of citizens in solving specific life issues that directly affect the conditions of their lives.

  8. Oral Health Promotion for Linguistically and Culturally Diverse Populations: Understanding the Local Non-English-Speaking Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Wendy; Periam, Catherine; Zoitopoulos, Liana

    2009-01-01

    Changes in the prevalence of oral diseases and the funding of National Health Service Dentistry in the United Kingdom have combined to emphasize the role of the dental team in the prevention of disease. As part of this, oral health promotion plays a vital role in local communities and educational settings. Like many other inner-city London…

  9. Global amphibian declines: perspectives from the United States and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Densmore, Christine L.; Cipriano, R.C.; Bruckner, A.W.; Shchelkunov, I.S.

    2011-01-01

    Over recent decades, amphibians have experienced population declines, extirpations and species-level extinctions at an alarming rate. Numerous potential etiologies for amphibian declines have been postulated including climate and habitat degradation. Other potential anthropogenic causes including overexploitation and the frequent introductions of invasive predatory species have also been blamed for amphibian declines. Still other underlying factors may include infectious diseases caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, pathogenic viruses (Ranavirus), and other agents. It is nearly certain that more than one etiology is to blame for the majority of the global amphibian declines, and that these causal factors include some combination of climatological or physical habitat destabilization and infectious disease, most notably chytridiomycosis. Scientific research efforts are aimed at elucidating these etiologies on local, regional, and global scales that we might better understand and counteract the driving forces behind amphibian declines. Conservation efforts as outlined in the Amphibian Conservation Action Plan of 2005 are also being made to curtail losses and prevent further extinctions wherever possible.

  10. Perception of the Local Population toward Urban Forests in Municipality of Aerodrom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aneta Blazevska

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: With the development of both society and economy, environmental issues have become a more popular topic. In recent decades both the role and perception of urban forests have changed regarding recreational and environmental aspects on both a local and global level. This coupled with urbanization places great importance on how people see and value the forests in an urban and peri-urban setting. Visitors are not a homogeneous category and hence have different needs and perceptions of urban and peri-urban green spaces. The study aims to understand the visitors` perception from municipality Aerodrom towards urban forests and their recreational use, benefits, preferences and perception regarding management activities of urban forests. Material and Methods: The method used for the research is qualitative with semi-structured questionnaire which was conducted face to face. Gathered data were analyzed by Excel and after that were presented in tables and graphs for better review of the results. The study area was municipality of Aerodrom which has the biggest space under urban forests per capita in Skopje. Results and Conclusion: Results have shown that all respondents have permanent residence in the municipality of Aerodrom, located in different settlements and with the length of stay mainly between 5 to 40 years. There is a dominance of female population and respondent’s age over 40 in the research. Results also showed that the average number of visit in urban forests by respondents during the week is three times. Regarding the meaning and association of term urban forests, results showed that majority of respondents have a clear and concise perception, and mainly this term for them is association on park and greenery, a nice decorated environment and place for walk. When it comes to the way how current situation with urban forest can be improved almost all of the respondents highlighted it can be through the following things

  11. The global financial crisis and neighborhood decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwiers, Merle; Bolt, Gideon; Van Ham, Maarten; Van Kempen, Ronald

    2016-01-01

    Neighborhood decline is a complex and multidimensional process. National and regional variations in economic and political structures (including varieties in national welfare state arrangements), combined with differences in neighborhood history, development, and population composition, make it

  12. Does climate change explain the decline of a trans-Saharan Afro-Palaearctic migrant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce-Higgins, J W; Yalden, D W; Dougall, T W; Beale, C M

    2009-03-01

    There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated

  13. Management and prognosis of locally recurrent rectal cancer - A national population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westberg, Karin; Palmer, Gabriella; Hjern, Fredrik; Johansson, Hemming; Holm, Torbjörn; Martling, Anna

    2018-01-01

    The rate of local recurrence of rectal cancer (LRRC) has decreased but the condition remains a therapeutic challenge. This study aimed to examine treatment and prognosis in patients with LRRC in Sweden. Special focus was directed towards potential differences between geographical regions and time periods. All patients with LRRC as first event, following primary surgery for rectal cancer performed during the period 1995-2002, were included in this national population-based cohort-study. Data were collected from the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry and from medical records. The cohort was divided into three time periods, based on the date of diagnosis of the LRRC. In total, 426 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Treatment with curative intent was performed in 149 patients (35%), including 121 patients who had a surgical resection of the LRRC. R0-resection was achieved in 64 patients (53%). Patients with a non-centrally located tumour were more likely to have positive resection margins (R1/R2) (OR 5.02, 95% CI:2.25-11.21). Five-year survival for patients resected with curative intent was 43% after R0-resection and 14% after R1-resection. There were no significant differences in treatment intention or R0-resection rate between time periods or regions. The risk of any failure was significantly higher in R1-resected patients compared with R0-resected patients (HR 2.04, 95% CI:1.22-3.40). A complete resection of the LRRC is essential for potentially curative treatment. Time period and region had no influence on either margin status or prognosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

  14. Efficacy of riparian buffers in mitigating local populations declines and the effects of even-aged timber harvest on larval salamanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    William E Peterman; Raymond D. Semlitch

    2009-01-01

    Headwater streams are an important and prevalent feature of the eastern North American landscape.These streams provide a wealth of ecosystem services and support tremendous biological diversity, which is predominated by salamanders in the Appalachian region. Salamanders are ubiquitous throughout the region, contributing a significant...

  15. What Makes Clusters Decline?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

    2015-01-01

    Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark. The longit...... but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

  16. Decline in Performance of Biochemical Reactors for Sulphate Removal from Mine-Influenced Water is Accompanied by Changes in Organic Matter Characteristics and Microbial Population Composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parissa Mirjafari

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Successful long-term bioremediation of mining-influenced water using complex organic matter and naturally-occurring microorganisms in sub-surface flow constructed wetlands requires a balance between easily and more slowly degrading material. This can be achieved by combining different types of organic materials. To provide guidance on what mixture combinations to use, information is needed on how the ratio of labile to recalcitrant components affects the degradation rate and the types of microbial populations supported. To investigate this, different ratios of wood and hay were used in up-flow column bioreactors treating selenium- and sulphate-containing synthetic mine-influenced water. The degradation rates of crude fibre components appeared to be similar regardless of the relative amounts of wood and hay. However, the nature of the degradation products might have differed in that those produced in the hay-rich bioreactors were more biodegradable and supported high sulphate-reduction rates. Microorganisms in the sulphate-reducing and cellulose-degrading inocula persisted in the bioreactors indicating that bio-augmentation was effective. There was a shift in microbial community composition over time suggesting that different microbial groups were involved in decomposition of more recalcitrant material. When dissolved organic carbon (DOC was over-supplied, the relative abundance of sulphate-reducers was low even through high sulphate-reduction rates were achieved. As DOC diminished, sulphate-reducers become more prevalent and their relative abundance correlated with sulphate concentrations rather than sulphate-reduction rate.

  17. A retrospective analysis of pollen host plant use by stable and declining bumble bee species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleijn, David; Raemakers, Ivo

    2008-07-01

    Understanding population declines has been the objective of a wide range of ecological studies. When species have become rare such studies are complicated because particular behavior or life history traits may be the cause but also the result of the decline of a species. We approached this problem by studying species' characteristics on specimens that were collected before the onset of their decline and preserved in natural history museums. In northwestern Europe, some bumble bee species declined dramatically during the 20th century whereas other, ecologically similar, species maintained stable populations. A long-standing debate focuses on whether this is caused by declining species having stricter host plant preferences. We compared the composition of pollen loads of five bumble bee species with stable populations and five with declining populations using museum specimens collected before 1950 in Belgium, England, and The Netherlands. Prior to 1950, the number of plant taxa in pollen loads of declining species was almost one-third lower than that in stable species even though individuals of stable and declining species generally originated from the same areas. There were no systematic differences in the composition of pollen loads between stable and declining species, but the plant taxa preferred by declining species before 1950 had experienced a stronger decline in the 20th century than those preferred by stable species. In 2004 and 2005, we surveyed the areas where bumble bees had been caught in the past and compared the composition of past and present pollen loads of the stable, but not of the by now locally extinct declining species. The number of collected pollen taxa was similar, but the composition differed significantly between the two periods. Differences in composition reflected the major changes in land use in northwestern Europe but also the spread of the invasive plant species Impatiens glandulifera. The main question now is why declining species

  18. Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eller, Elise; Hawks, John; Relethford, John H

    2004-10-01

    A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.

  19. Taste, Salt Consumption, and Local Explanations around Hypertension in a Rural Population in Northern Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Pesantes, M. Amalia; Diez-Canseco, Francisco; Bernab?-Ortiz, Antonio; Ponce-Lucero, Vilarmina; Miranda, J. Jaime

    2017-01-01

    Interventions to promote behaviors to reduce sodium intake require messages tailored to local understandings of the relationship between what we eat and our health. We studied local explanations about hypertension, the relationship between local diet, salt intake, and health status, and participants? opinions about changing food habits. This study provided inputs for a social marketing campaign in Peru promoting the use of a salt substitute containing less sodium than regular salt. Qualitativ...

  20. No evidence for local adaptation to salt stress in the existing populations of invasive Solidago canadensis in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Junmin; Liu, Haiyan; Yan, Ming; Du, Leshan

    2017-01-01

    Local adaptation is an important mechanism underlying the adaptation of plants to environmental heterogeneity, and the toxicity of salt results in strong selection pressure on salt tolerance in plants and different ecotypes. Solidago canadensis, which is invasive in China, has spread widely and has recently colonized alkali sandy loams with a significant salt content. A common greenhouse experiment was conducted to test the role of local adaptation in the successful invasion of S. canadensis into salty habitats. Salt treatment significantly decreased the growth of S. canadensis, including rates of increase in the number of leaves and plant height; the root, shoot, and total biomass. Furthermore, salt stress significantly reduced the net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate and relative chlorophyll content but significantly increased peroxidase activity and the proline content of S. canadensis and the root/shoot ratio. Two-way analysis of variance showed that salt treatment had a significant effect on the physiological traits of S. canadensis, except for the intercellular CO2 concentration, whereas the population and the salt × population interaction had no significant effect on any physiological traits. Most of the variation in plasticity existed within and not among populations, excep for the root/shoot ratio. S. canadensis populations from soil with moderate/high salt levels grew similarly to S. canadensis populations from soils with low salt levels. No significant correlation between salt tolerance indices and soil salinity levels was observed. The plasticity of the proline content, intercellular CO2 concentration and chlorophyll content had significant correlations with the salt tolerance index. These findings indicate a lack of evidence for local adaption in the existing populations of invasive S. canadensis in China; instead, plasticity might be more important than local adaptation in influencing the physiological traits and salt

  1. No evidence for local adaptation to salt stress in the existing populations of invasive Solidago canadensis in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junmin Li

    Full Text Available Local adaptation is an important mechanism underlying the adaptation of plants to environmental heterogeneity, and the toxicity of salt results in strong selection pressure on salt tolerance in plants and different ecotypes. Solidago canadensis, which is invasive in China, has spread widely and has recently colonized alkali sandy loams with a significant salt content. A common greenhouse experiment was conducted to test the role of local adaptation in the successful invasion of S. canadensis into salty habitats. Salt treatment significantly decreased the growth of S. canadensis, including rates of increase in the number of leaves and plant height; the root, shoot, and total biomass. Furthermore, salt stress significantly reduced the net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate and relative chlorophyll content but significantly increased peroxidase activity and the proline content of S. canadensis and the root/shoot ratio. Two-way analysis of variance showed that salt treatment had a significant effect on the physiological traits of S. canadensis, except for the intercellular CO2 concentration, whereas the population and the salt × population interaction had no significant effect on any physiological traits. Most of the variation in plasticity existed within and not among populations, excep for the root/shoot ratio. S. canadensis populations from soil with moderate/high salt levels grew similarly to S. canadensis populations from soils with low salt levels. No significant correlation between salt tolerance indices and soil salinity levels was observed. The plasticity of the proline content, intercellular CO2 concentration and chlorophyll content had significant correlations with the salt tolerance index. These findings indicate a lack of evidence for local adaption in the existing populations of invasive S. canadensis in China; instead, plasticity might be more important than local adaptation in influencing the physiological

  2. Mortality Reduction, Fertility Decline, and Population Growth: Toward a More Relevant Assessment of the Relationships among Them. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 686 and Population and Development Series No. 11.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwatkin, Davidson

    One of a special series on population change and development, this paper focuses primarily on the programs and policies responsible for mortality or fertility change, rather than on the growth impact of a mortality or fertility change per se. The first portion of the document examines three models for assessing the population growth implications…

  3. The decline of the impetigo epidemic caused by the epidemic European fusidic acid-resistant impetigo clone: an 11.5-year population-based incidence study from a community in Western Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rørtveit, Sverre; Skutlaberg, Dag Harald; Langeland, Nina; Rortveit, Guri

    2014-12-01

    From around the year 2000, Northern Europe experienced a rise in impetigo caused by Staphylococcus aureus resistant to fusidic acid. A single clone of S. aureus was found to be the bacterial pathogen involved in the impetigo outbreak in Norway, Sweden, the UK and Ireland, termed 'the epidemic European fusidic acid-resistant impetigo clone' (EEFIC). We have followed the incidence of impetigo during the years 2001-2012 based on all patients in general practice in the island community of Austevoll, Western Norway. We previously reported a marked decline of impetigo incidence in Austevoll, from 0.0260 cases per person-year in 2002 to 0.0038 in 2009. This article explores indications of an end to the impetigo epidemic caused by the EEFIC clone. All four general practitioners (GPs) in the community (mean population = 4400) were asked to diagnose impetigo in a uniform way and to take bacterial specimens from all impetigo cases. Phenotypic characteristics of specimen bacteria were determined for the whole period and molecular analyses were performed on isolates in the period 2008-2012. We observed a further decline in incidence of impetigo in Austevoll in the study period. The proportion of fusidic acid-resistant S. aureus isolates decreased during the period 2002-2012, with a mean of 80% in the epidemic years of 2002-2004, 55% in 2005-2009, and 6% in 2010-2012. In total, 44 S. aureus isolates from impetigo were subject to molecular analyses in the period 2008-2012, and 11 were found to be related to the EEFIC. All EEFIC isolates were found in 2008-2009, with no new isolates in 2010-2012. There is an apparent end to the impetigo epidemic related to the EEFIC in this population in Western Norway.

  4. Mathematical modeling of an urban pigeon population subject to local management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haidar, I; Alvarez, I; Prévot, A C

    2017-06-01

    This paper addresses the issue of managing urban pigeon population using some possible actions that make it reach a density target with respect to socio-ecological constraints. A mathematical model describing the dynamic of this population is introduced. This model incorporates the effect of some regulatory actions on the dynamic of this population. We use mathematical viability theory, which provides a framework to study compatibility between dynamics and state constraints. The viability study shows when and how it is possible to regulate the pigeon population with respect to the constraints. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Local cases of institutional entrepreneurship:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gretzinger, Susanne; Leick, Birgit

    2018-01-01

    Population ageing and population decline are two contemporary phenomena that imply a tremendous transformation of local markets across many European regions and challenge their economic growth and development in the longer run. In such contexts of market change and, perhaps, crisis, institutional...... agendas and frameworks (including the institutionalised practices used in the local economy) can be stabilising anchors for the strategic planning of firms and public organisations. However, demographic challenges will also put a strain on these institutions that become subject to change themselves...... to support the local economy in coping with demographic challenges....

  6. Cardiovascular Prevention of Cognitive Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Jacques Monsuez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Midlife cardiovascular risk factors, including diabetes, hypertension, dyslipemia, and an unhealthy lifestyle, have been linked to subsequent incidence, delay of onset, and progression rate of Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia. Conversely, optimal treatment of cardiovascular risk factors prevents and slows down age-related cognitive disorders. The impact of antihypertensive therapy on cognitive outcome in patients with hypertension was assessed in large trials which demonstrated a reduction in progression of MRI white matter hyperintensities, in cognitive decline and in incidence of dementia. Large-scale database correlated statin use and reduction in the incidence of dementia, mainly in patients with documented atherosclerosis, but clinical trials failed to reach similar conclusions. Whether a multitargeted intervention would substantially improve protection, quality of life, and reduce medical cost expenditures in patients with lower risk profile has not been ascertained. This would require appropriately designed trials targeting large populations and focusing on cognitive decline as a primary outcome endpoint.

  7. Limited Pollen Dispersal Contributes to Population Genetic Structure but Not Local Adaptation in Quercus oleoides Forests of Costa Rica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas John Deacon

    Full Text Available Quercus oleoides Cham. and Schlect., tropical live oak, is a species of conservation importance in its southern range limit of northwestern Costa Rica. It occurs in high-density stands across a fragmented landscape spanning a contrasting elevation and precipitation gradient. We examined genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure in this geographically isolated and genetically distinct population. We characterized population genetic diversity at 11 nuclear microsatellite loci in 260 individuals from 13 sites. We monitored flowering time at 10 sites, and characterized the local environment in order to compare observed spatial genetic structure to hypotheses of isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-environment. Finally, we quantified pollen dispersal distances and tested for local adaptation through a reciprocal transplant experiment in order to experimentally address these hypotheses.High genetic diversity is maintained in the population and the genetic variation is significantly structured among sampled sites. We identified 5 distinct genetic clusters and average pollen dispersal predominately occurred over short distances. Differences among sites in flowering phenology and environmental factors, however, were not strictly associated with genetic differentiation. Growth and survival of upland and lowland progeny in their native and foreign environments was expected to exhibit evidence of local adaptation due to the more extreme dry season in the lowlands. Seedlings planted in the lowland garden experienced much higher mortality than seedlings in the upland garden, but we did not identify evidence for local adaptation.Overall, this study indicates that the Costa Rican Q. oleoides population has a rich population genetic history. Despite environmental heterogeneity and habitat fragmentation, isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-environment alone do not explain spatial genetic structure. These results add to studies of genetic structure by

  8. Limited Pollen Dispersal Contributes to Population Genetic Structure but Not Local Adaptation in Quercus oleoides Forests of Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deacon, Nicholas John; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

    2015-01-01

    Quercus oleoides Cham. and Schlect., tropical live oak, is a species of conservation importance in its southern range limit of northwestern Costa Rica. It occurs in high-density stands across a fragmented landscape spanning a contrasting elevation and precipitation gradient. We examined genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure in this geographically isolated and genetically distinct population. We characterized population genetic diversity at 11 nuclear microsatellite loci in 260 individuals from 13 sites. We monitored flowering time at 10 sites, and characterized the local environment in order to compare observed spatial genetic structure to hypotheses of isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-environment. Finally, we quantified pollen dispersal distances and tested for local adaptation through a reciprocal transplant experiment in order to experimentally address these hypotheses. High genetic diversity is maintained in the population and the genetic variation is significantly structured among sampled sites. We identified 5 distinct genetic clusters and average pollen dispersal predominately occurred over short distances. Differences among sites in flowering phenology and environmental factors, however, were not strictly associated with genetic differentiation. Growth and survival of upland and lowland progeny in their native and foreign environments was expected to exhibit evidence of local adaptation due to the more extreme dry season in the lowlands. Seedlings planted in the lowland garden experienced much higher mortality than seedlings in the upland garden, but we did not identify evidence for local adaptation. Overall, this study indicates that the Costa Rican Q. oleoides population has a rich population genetic history. Despite environmental heterogeneity and habitat fragmentation, isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-environment alone do not explain spatial genetic structure. These results add to studies of genetic structure by examining a common

  9. ROBUST DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutawanir Darwis

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Empirical decline curve analysis of oil production data gives reasonable answer in hyperbolic type curves situations; however the methodology has limitations in fitting real historical production data in present of unusual observations due to the effect of the treatment to the well in order to increase production capacity. The development ofrobust least squares offers new possibilities in better fitting production data using declinecurve analysis by down weighting the unusual observations. This paper proposes a robustleast squares fitting lmRobMM approach to estimate the decline rate of daily production data and compares the results with reservoir simulation results. For case study, we usethe oil production data at TBA Field West Java. The results demonstrated that theapproach is suitable for decline curve fitting and offers a new insight in decline curve analysis in the present of unusual observations.

  10. US Historic Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This programs derives a table of secular change in magnetic declination for a specified point in the conterminous United States. It utilizes the USD polynomial and...

  11. Population growth and the environment in Africa : local informal institutions, the missing link

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazzucato, V.; Niemeijer, D.

    2002-01-01

    Population and environment debates regarding Africa, whether Malthusian or Boserupian in nature, focus on population levels as the driving force behind the relationship between environment and society. This article argues, instead, that how people adjust to their rise in numbers is more important

  12. Population admixture, biological invasions and the balance between local adaptation and inbreeding depression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, K.J.F.; Macel, M.; Wolfe, L.M.; Biere, A.

    2011-01-01

    When previously isolated populations meet and mix, the resulting admixed population can benefit from several genetic advantages, including increased genetic variation, the creation of novel genotypes and the masking of deleterious mutations. These admixture benefits are thought to play an important

  13. Variation in the local population dynamics of the short-lived Opuntia macrorhiza (Cactaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haridas, C V; Keeler, Kathleen H; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

    2015-03-01

    Spatiotemporal variation in demographic rates can have profound effects for population persistence, especially for dispersal-limited species living in fragmented landscapes. Long-term studies of plants in such habitats help with understanding the impacts of fragmentation on population persistence but such studies are rare. In this work, we reanalyzed demographic data from seven years of the short-lived cactus Opuntia macrorhiza var. macrorhiza at five plots in Boulder, Colorado. Previous work combining data from all years and all plots predicted a stable population (deterministic log lamda approximately 0). This approach assumed that all five plots were part of a single population. Since the plots were located in a suburban-agricultural interface separated by highways, grazing lands, and other barriers, and O. macrorhiza is likely dispersal limited, we analyzed the dynamics of each plot separately using stochastic matrix models assuming each plot represented a separate population. We found that the stochastic population growth rate log lamdaS varied widely between populations (log lamdaS = 0.1497, 0.0774, -0.0230, -0.2576, -0.4989). The three populations with the highest growth rates were located close together in space, while the two most isolated populations had the lowest growth rates suggesting that dispersal between populations is critical for the population viability of O. macrorhiza. With one exception, both our prospective (stochastic elasticity) and retrospective (stochastic life table response experiments) analysis suggested that means of stasis and growth, especially of smaller plants, were most important for population growth rate. This is surprising because recruitment is typically the most important vital rate in a short-lived species such as O. macrorhiza. We found that elasticity to the variance was mostly negligible, suggesting that O. macrorhiza populations are buffered against large temporal variation. Finally, single-year elasticities to means

  14. The hELENa project - I. Stellar populations of early-type galaxies linked with local environment and galaxy mass

    OpenAIRE

    Sybilska, A.; Lisker, T.; Kuntschner, H.; Vazdekis, A.; van de Ven, G.; Peletier, R.; Falcón-Barroso, J.; Vijayaraghavan, R.; Janz, J.

    2017-01-01

    We present the first in a series of papers in T$h$e role of $E$nvironment in shaping $L$ow-mass $E$arly-type $N$earby g$a$laxies (hELENa) project. In this paper we combine our sample of 20 low-mass early types (dEs) with 258 massive early types (ETGs) from the ATLAS$^{\\mathrm{3D}}$ survey - all observed with the SAURON integral field unit (IFU) - to investigate early-type galaxies' stellar population scaling relations and the dependence of the population properties on local environment, exten...

  15. Cyanobacterial populations in biological soil crusts of the northwest Negev Desert, Israel - effects of local conditions and disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemann, Martin; Henneberg, Manja; Felde, Vincent J M N L; Berkowicz, Simon M; Raanan, Hagai; Pade, Nadin; Felix-Henningsen, Peter; Kaplan, Aaron

    2016-11-02

    Biological soil crusts (BSCs) fulfill numerous ecological functions in arid and semiarid areas. Cyanobacteria are important BSC organisms, which are responsible for carbon fixation, N 2 -fixation, and binding of soil via extracellular polysaccharides. The cyanobacterial populations were characterized in different sampling plots established in three experimental stations along a rainfall gradient within NW Negev Desert, Israel. Cyanobacterial crust thickness and osmolyte accumulation therein decreased in plots with lower moisture. The cyanobacterial population structure also changed in different plots. We observed an increase of subsection III cyanobacteria such as Microcoleus spp. and Leptolyngbya sp. and a decreasing proportion of strains belonging to subsections I and IV in drier areas on the rainfall gradient. This population shift was also observed in the sampling plots, which were situated at various relief positions within the sand dune experimental sites. We also characterized the cyanobacterial populations within mechanically disturbed plots. After four years, they reached between 80 and 50% of the control populations in the northern-most and southern stations, respectively. Our results suggest that the cyanobacterial population is sensitive not only to macroscale factors but may also be subject to local climate variations and that four years were insufficient for complete recovery of the cyanobacterial population. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Identifying species conservation strategies to reduce disease-associated declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Converse, Sarah J.; Muths, Erin L.; Crockett, Harry J.; Mosher, Brittany A.; Bailey, Larissa L.

    2018-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a salient threat to many animal taxa, causing local and global extinctions, altering communities and ecosystem function. The EID chytridiomycosis is a prominent driver of amphibian declines, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). To guide conservation policy, we developed a predictive decision-analytic model that combines empirical knowledge of host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics with expert judgment regarding effects of management actions, to select from potential conservation strategies. We apply our approach to a boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) and Bd system, identifying optimal strategies that balance tradeoffs in maximizing toad population persistence and landscape-level distribution, while considering costs. The most robust strategy is expected to reduce the decline of toad breeding sites from 53% to 21% over 50 years. Our findings are incorporated into management policy to guide conservation planning. Our online modeling application provides a template for managers of other systems challenged by EIDs.

  17. Comparison of general health status, myocardial infarction, obesity, diabetes, and fruit and vegetable intake between immigrant Pakistani population in the Netherlands and the local Amsterdam population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raza, Qaisar; Nicolaou, Mary; Dijkshoorn, Henriëtte; Seidell, Jacob C

    2017-12-01

    South Asians living in Western countries have shown higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease and related non-communicable diseases as compared to the local populations. The aim of this study was to compare the general health status and prevalence of myocardial infarction (MI), diabetes, high blood pressure, overweight, obesity, and fruit and vegetable intake between Pakistani immigrants in the Netherlands and local Amsterdam population. A health survey was conducted in 2012-2013 among Pakistanis in the Netherlands. Results were compared with a health survey conducted among inhabitants of Amsterdam in 2012. One hundred and fifty-four Pakistanis from four big cities of the Netherlands and 7218 inhabitants of Amsterdam participated. The data for Amsterdam population were weighed on the basis of age, gender, city district, marital status, ethnicity and income level while the data for Pakistanis were weighed on the basis of age and gender to make both data-sets representative of their general population. Pakistanis reported a high prevalence of MI (3.3%), diabetes (11.4%), high blood pressure (14.4%), overweight (35.5%) and obesity (18.5%) while Amsterdam population reported the prevalence as 2.5% for MI, 6.8% for diabetes, 15.3% for high blood pressure, 28.1% for overweight and 11.1% for obesity. Pakistanis had a significantly higher level of MI (OR = 2.71; 95% CI: 1.19-6.14), diabetes (OR = 4.41; 95% CI: 2.66-7.33) and obesity (OR = 2.51; 95% CI: 1.53-4.12) after controlling for age, sex and educational level with Amsterdam population as the reference group. Pakistanis showed a higher intake of fruit and fruit juice as compared to Amsterdam population though the latter showed a higher intake of cooked vegetables. Higher prevalence of MI, diabetes and obesity among Pakistanis than Amsterdam population indicates the need for health scientists and policy-makers to develop interventions for tackling non-communicable diseases and its determinants among

  18. Spatial difference in genetic variation for fenitrothion tolerance between local populations of Daphnia galeata in Lake Kasumigaura, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mano, Hiroyuki; Tanaka, Yoshinari

    2017-12-01

    This study examines the spatial difference in genetic variation for tolerance to a pesticide, fenitrothion, in Daphnia galeata at field sites in Lake Kasumigaura, Japan. We estimated genetic values of isofemale lines established from dormant eggs of D. galeata collected from field sampling sites with the toxicant threshold model applied using acute toxicity. We compared genetic values and variances and broad-sense heritability across different sites in the lake. Results showed that the mean tolerance values to fenitrothion did not differ spatially. The variance in genetic value and heritability of fenitrothion tolerance significantly differed between sampling sites, revealing that long-term ecological risk of fenitrothion may differ between local populations in the lake. These results have implications for aquatic toxicology research, suggesting that differences in genetic variation of tolerance to a chemical among local populations must be considered for understanding the long-term ecological risks of the chemical over a large geographic area.

  19. Public support for river restoration funding in relation to local river ecomorphology, population density, and mean income

    Science.gov (United States)

    SchläPfer, Felix; Witzig, Pieter-Jan

    2006-12-01

    In 1997, about 140,000 citizens in 388 voting districts in the Swiss canton of Bern passed a ballot initiative to allocate about 3 million Swiss Francs annually to a canton-wide river restoration program. Using the municipal voting returns and a detailed georeferenced data set on the ecomorphological status of the rivers, we estimate models of voter support in relation to local river ecomorphology, population density, mean income, cultural background, and recent flood damage. Support of the initiative increased with increasing population density and tended to increase with increasing mean income, in spite of progressive taxation. Furthermore, we found evidence that public support increased with decreasing "naturalness" of local rivers. The model estimates may be cautiously used to predict the public acceptance of similar restoration programs in comparable regions. Moreover, the voting-based insights into the distribution of river restoration benefits provide a useful starting point for debates about appropriate financing schemes.

  20. BIOTIC FACTORS IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amphibians evolved in, and continue to exist in, habitats that are replete with many other organisms. Some of these organisms serve as prey for amphibians and others interact with amphibians as predators, competitors, pathogens, or symbionts. Still other organisms in their enviro...

  1. Genetic variability and effective population size when local extinction and recolonization of subpopulations are frequent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruyama, Takeo; Kimura, Motoo

    1980-01-01

    If a population (species) consists of n haploid lines (subpopulations) which reproduce asexually and each of which is subject to random extinction and subsequent replacement, it is shown that, at equilibrium in which mutational production of new alleles and their random extinction balance each other, the genetic diversity (1 minus the sum of squares of allelic frequencies) is given by 2Nev/(1 + 2Nev), where [Formula: see text] in which Ñ is the harmonic mean of the population size per line, n is the number of lines (assumed to be large), λ is the rate of line extinction, and v is the mutation rate (assuming the infinite neutral allele model). In a diploid population (species) consisting of n colonies, if migration takes place between colonies at the rate m (the island model) in addition to extinction and recolonization of colonies, it is shown that effective population size is [Formula: see text] If the rate of colony extinction (λ) is much larger than the migration rate of individuals, the effective population size is greatly reduced compared with the case in which no colony extinctions occur (in which case Ne = nÑ). The stepping-stone type of recolonization scheme is also considered. Bearing of these results on the interpretation of the level of genetic variability at the enzyme level observed in natural populations is discussed from the standpoint of the neutral mutation-random drift hypothesis. PMID:16592920

  2. Growing massive black holes in a Local Group environment: the central supermassive, slowly sinking and ejected populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micic, Miroslav; Holley-Bockelmann, Kelly; Sigurdsson, Steinn

    2011-06-01

    We explore the growth of ≤107 M⊙ black holes that reside at the centres of spiral and field dwarf galaxies in a Local Group type of environment. We use merger trees from a cosmological N-body simulation known as Via Lactea 2 (VL-2) as a framework to test two merger-driven semi-analytic recipes for black hole growth that include dynamical friction, tidal stripping and gravitational wave recoil in over 20 000 merger tree realizations. First, we apply a Fundamental Plane limited (FPL) model to the growth of Sgr A*, which drives the central black hole to a maximum mass limited by the black hole Fundamental Plane after every merger. Next, we present a new model that allows for low-level prolonged gas accretion (PGA) during the merger. We find that both models can generate an Sgr A* mass black hole. We predict a population of massive black holes in local field dwarf galaxies - if the VL-2 simulation is representative of the growth of the Local Group, we predict up to 35 massive black holes (≤106 M⊙) in Local Group field dwarfs. We also predict that hundreds of ≤105 M⊙ black holes fail to merge, and instead populate the Milky Way halo, with the most massive of them at roughly the virial radius. In addition, we find that there may be hundreds of massive black holes ejected from their hosts into the nearby intergalactic medium due to gravitational wave recoil. We discuss how the black hole population in the Local Group field dwarfs may help to constrain the growth mechanism for Sgr A*.

  3. Health of the Elderly Migration Population in China: Benefit from Individual and Local Socioeconomic Status?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qing

    2017-04-01

    The study aims to estimate the relationship between the individual/local socioeconomic status and the health of internal elderly migrants in China. A multilevel logistic model was used to estimate this association. The estimations were undertaken for 11,111 migrants aged over 60 years, using nationally representative data: the 2015 Migrant Dynamics Monitoring Survey (MDMS), which was carried out in China. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were reported. Both the household income per capita and the area-level average wage were positively associated with migrants' self-reported health; however, public service supply was not significantly related to their health. In addition, given the household income, migrants living in communities with a higher average wage were more likely to report poor health. Migrants' health benefited from individual socioeconomic status, but not from the local socioeconomic status, which the migrants cannot enjoy. This study highlights the importance of multilevel and non-discriminatory policies between migrants and local residents.

  4. Decline and conservation of bumble bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulson, D; Lye, G C; Darvill, B

    2008-01-01

    Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes.

  5. Replicated population divergence caused by localized coevolution? A test of three hypotheses in the red crossbill-lodgepole pine system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edelaar, P; Benkman, C W

    2006-09-01

    Several lines of evidence support the hypothesis that local populations of red crossbills (Loxia curvirostra complex) enter into a predator-prey arms race with lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) in the absence of competing pine squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). Nevertheless, the alternative hypotheses that neutral evolution or factors other than squirrels have caused crossbill population differentiation have not been thoroughly tested. We compared crossbill and pine cone morphology between island populations where squirrels are absent or present, and mainland sites where squirrels are present, in order to distinguish among these hypotheses. All comparisons supported an effect of squirrel absence, not island status, on crossbill and cone morphology. Hence our results provide further evidence that strong localized coevolutionary interactions in a geographic mosaic have driven adaptive population differentiation. In addition, vocal differentiation of crossbills was related to the absence of squirrels, but not to island status. As morphological and vocal differentiation is correlated with reproductive isolation in crossbills, the geographic mosaic of coevolution also seems to promote ecological speciation.

  6. Forest decline through radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reichelt, G.; Kollert, R.

    1985-01-01

    Is more serious damage of forest observed in the vicinity of nuclear reactors. How are those decline patterns to be explained. Does the combined effect of radioactivity and different air pollutants (such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, oxidants etc.) have an influence in the decline of the forest. In what way do synergisms, i.e. mutually enhanced effects, participate. How does natural and artificial radioactivity affect the chemistry of air in the polluted atmosphere. What does this mean for the extension of nuclear energy, especially for the reprocessing plant planned. Damage in the forests near nuclear and industrial plants was mapped and the resulting hypotheses on possible emittors were statistically verified. Quantitative calculations as to the connection between nuclear energy and forest decline were carried through: they demand action. (orig./HP) [de

  7. Assessing local population vulnerability to wind energy development with branching process models: an application to wind energy development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Richard A.; Eager, Eric A.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic development on local populations is important for conservation biology and wildlife management. However, these local populations are often subject to demographic stochasticity because of their small population size. Traditional modeling efforts such as population projection matrices do not consider this source of variation whereas individual-based models, which include demographic stochasticity, are computationally intense and lack analytical tractability. One compromise between approaches is branching process models because they accommodate demographic stochasticity and are easily calculated. These models are known within some sub-fields of probability and mathematical ecology but are not often applied in conservation biology and applied ecology. We applied branching process models to quantitatively compare and prioritize species locally vulnerable to the development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, we examined species vulnerability using branching process models for four representative species: A cave bat (a long-lived, low fecundity species), a tree bat (short-lived, moderate fecundity species), a grassland songbird (a short-lived, high fecundity species), and an eagle (a long-lived, slow maturation species). Wind turbine-induced mortality has been observed for all of these species types, raising conservation concerns. We simulated different mortality rates from wind farms while calculating local extinction probabilities. The longer-lived species types (e.g., cave bats and eagles) had much more pronounced transitions from low extinction risk to high extinction risk than short-lived species types (e.g., tree bats and grassland songbirds). High-offspring-producing species types had a much greater variability in baseline risk of extinction than the lower-offspring-producing species types. Long-lived species types may appear stable until a critical level of incidental mortality occurs. After this threshold, the risk of

  8. Local adaptation of annual weed populations to habitats differing in disturbance regime

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Malíková, Lenka; Latzel, Vít; Šmilauer, P.; Klimešová, Jitka

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 30, č. 5 (2016), s. 861-876 ISSN 0269-7653 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-06802S; GA ČR GPP504/12/P540 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : Local adaptation * Euphorbia peplus * Disturbance Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.818, year: 2016

  9. Response of locally adapted pearl millet populations to s1 progeny ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In the semi-arid zones of Uganda, pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R. Br.) is mainly grown for food and income; but rust (Puccinia substriata var indica (L.) R. Br.) is the main foliar constraint lowering yield. The objective of the study was to genetically improve grain yield and rust resistance of two locally adapted ...

  10. Varying Herbivore Population Structure Correlates with Lack of Local Adaptation in a Geographic Variable Plant-Herbivore Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cogni, Rodrigo; Trigo, José R.; Futuyma, Douglas J.

    2011-01-01

    Local adaptation of parasites to their hosts due to coevolution is a central prediction of many theories in evolutionary biology. However, empirical studies looking for parasite local adaptation show great variation in outcomes, and the reasons for such variation are largely unknown. In a previous study, we showed adaptive differentiation in the arctiid moth Utetheisa ornatrix to its host plant, the pyrrolizidine alkaloid-bearing legume Crotalaria pallida, at the continental scale, but found no differentiation at the regional scale. In the present study, we sampled the same sites to investigate factors that may contribute to the lack of differentiation at the regional scale. We performed field observations that show that specialist and non-specialist polyphagous herbivore incidence varies among populations at both scales. With a series of common-garden experiments we show that some plant traits that may affect herbivory (pyrrolizidine alkaloids and extrafloral nectaries) vary at the regional scale, while other traits (trichomes and nitrogen content) just vary at the continental scale. These results, combined with our previous evidence for plant population differentiation based on larval performance on fresh fruits, suggest that U. ornatrix is subjected to divergent selection even at the regional scale. Finally, with a microsatellite study we investigated population structure of U. ornatrix. We found that population structure is not stable over time: we found population differentiation at the regional scale in the first year of sampling, but not in the second year. Unstable population structure of the herbivore is the most likely cause of the lack of regional adaptation. PMID:22220208

  11. Varying herbivore population structure correlates with lack of local adaptation in a geographic variable plant-herbivore interaction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Cogni

    Full Text Available Local adaptation of parasites to their hosts due to coevolution is a central prediction of many theories in evolutionary biology. However, empirical studies looking for parasite local adaptation show great variation in outcomes, and the reasons for such variation are largely unknown. In a previous study, we showed adaptive differentiation in the arctiid moth Utetheisa ornatrix to its host plant, the pyrrolizidine alkaloid-bearing legume Crotalaria pallida, at the continental scale, but found no differentiation at the regional scale. In the present study, we sampled the same sites to investigate factors that may contribute to the lack of differentiation at the regional scale. We performed field observations that show that specialist and non-specialist polyphagous herbivore incidence varies among populations at both scales. With a series of common-garden experiments we show that some plant traits that may affect herbivory (pyrrolizidine alkaloids and extrafloral nectaries vary at the regional scale, while other traits (trichomes and nitrogen content just vary at the continental scale. These results, combined with our previous evidence for plant population differentiation based on larval performance on fresh fruits, suggest that U. ornatrix is subjected to divergent selection even at the regional scale. Finally, with a microsatellite study we investigated population structure of U. ornatrix. We found that population structure is not stable over time: we found population differentiation at the regional scale in the first year of sampling, but not in the second year. Unstable population structure of the herbivore is the most likely cause of the lack of regional adaptation.

  12. Cluster Decline and Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

    Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark, 1963......-2011. Our longitudinal study reveals that technological lock-in and exit of key firms have contributed to impairment of the cluster’s resilience in adapting to disruptions. Entrepreneurship has a positive effect on cluster resilience, while multinational companies have contradicting effects by bringing...... in new resources to the cluster but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

  13. Theoretical Study of near Neutrality. II. Effect of Subdivided Population Structure with Local Extinction and Recolonization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohta, T.

    1992-01-01

    There are several unsolved problems concerning the model of nearly neutral mutations. One is the interaction of subdivided population structure and weak selection that spatially fluctuates. The model of nearly neutral mutations whose selection coefficient spatially fluctuates has been studied by adopting the island model with periodic extinction-recolonization. Both the number of colonies and the migration rate play significant roles in determining mutants' behavior, and selection is ineffective when the extinction-recolonization is frequent with low migration rate. In summary, the number of mutant substitutions decreases and the polymorphism increases by increasing the total population size, and/or decreasing the extinction-recolonization rate. However, by increasing the total size of the population, the mutant substitution rate does not become as low when compared with that in panmictic populations, because of the extinction-recolonization, especially when the migration rate is limited. It is also found that the model satisfactorily explains the contrasting patterns of molecular polymorphisms observed in sibling species of Drosophila, including heterozygosity, proportion of polymorphism and fixation index. PMID:1582566

  14. Determining Chronic Disease Prevalence in Local Populations Using Emergency Department Surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, David C; Long, Judith A; Wall, Stephen P; Carr, Brendan G; Satchell, Samantha N; Braithwaite, R Scott; Elbel, Brian

    2015-09-01

    We sought to improve public health surveillance by using a geographic analysis of emergency department (ED) visits to determine local chronic disease prevalence. Using an all-payer administrative database, we determined the proportion of unique ED patients with diabetes, hypertension, or asthma. We compared these rates to those determined by the New York City Community Health Survey. For diabetes prevalence, we also analyzed the fidelity of longitudinal estimates using logistic regression and determined disease burden within census tracts using geocoded addresses. We identified 4.4 million unique New York City adults visiting an ED between 2009 and 2012. When we compared our emergency sample to survey data, rates of neighborhood diabetes, hypertension, and asthma prevalence were similar (correlation coefficient = 0.86, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively). In addition, our method demonstrated less year-to-year scatter and identified significant variation of disease burden within neighborhoods among census tracts. Our method for determining chronic disease prevalence correlates with a validated health survey and may have higher reliability over time and greater granularity at a local level. Our findings can improve public health surveillance by identifying local variation of disease prevalence.

  15. Decline and infiltrated lung

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraldo Estrada, Horacio; Arboleda Casas, Felipe; Duarte, Monica; Triana Harker, Ricardo

    2001-01-01

    The paper describes the decline and infiltrated lung in a patient of 45 years, with diagnosis of arthritis rheumatoid from the 43 years, asymptomatic, without treatment, married, of the 15 to the 35 years of 3 to 10 cigarettes daily, she refers of 7 months of evolution episodes of moderate dyspnoea with exercises and dry cough with occasional mucous expectoration between others

  16. Life expectancy estimation in small administrative areas with non-uniform population sizes: application to Australian New South Wales local government areas

    OpenAIRE

    Stephens, Alexandre S; Purdie, Stuart; Yang, Baohui; Moore, Helen

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine a practical approach for deriving life expectancy estimates in Australian New South Wales local government areas which display a large diversity in population sizes. Design Population-based study utilising mortality and estimated residential population data. Setting 153 local government areas in New South Wales, Australia. Outcome measures Key performance measures of Chiang II, Silcocks, adjusted Chiang II and Bayesian random effects model methodologies of life expectan...

  17. Local environment and density-dependent feedbacks determine population growth in a forest herb

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan Petter; Östergård, Hannah; Ehrlén, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Linking spatial variation in environmental factors to variation in demographic rates is essential for a mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations. However, we still know relatively little about such links, partly because feedbacks via intraspecific density make them difficult...... to observe in natural populations. We conducted a detailed field study and investigated simultaneous effects of environmental factors and the intraspecific density of individuals on the demography of the herb Lathyrus vernus. In regression models of vital rates we identified effects associated with spring...... shade on survival and growth, while density was negatively correlated with these vital rates. Density was also negatively correlated with average individual size in the study plots, which is consistent with self-thinning. In addition, average plant sizes were larger than predicted by density in plots...

  18. Changes in the neuroglial cell populations of the rat spinal cord after local X-irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubbard, B.M.; Hopewell, J.W.

    1979-01-01

    A 16 mm length of cervical spinal cord of young adult female rats was irradiated with 4000 rad of 250 kV X-rays. Counts of astrocyte and oligodendrocyte nuclei were made in the dorsal columns of both irradiated and control cervical cords during the latent period before the onset of radionecrosis. The numbers of both astrocyte and oligodendrocyte nuclei were reduced one month after exposure to radiation. Both cell populations showed an apparent recovery but this was subsequently followed by a rapid loss of cells prior to the development of white-matter necrosis. The oligodendrocyte population in unirradiated spinal cords increased with age, and mitotic figures were observed among the neuroglia of both irradiated and control cervical spinal cords. A slow, natural turnover of neuroglial cells in the cervical spinal cord is proposed and the relevance of this to the manifestation of delayed white matter necrosis is discussed. (author)

  19. The isolation and localization of arbitrary restriction fragment length polymorphisms in Southern African populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conn, V.

    1987-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to contribute to the mapping of the human genome by searching for and characterizing a number of RFLPs (restriction fragment length polymorphisms) in the human genome. The more specific aims of this study were: 1. To isolate single-copy human DNA sequences from a human genomic library. 2. To use these single-copy sequences as DNA probes to search for polymorphic variation among Caucasoid individuals. 3. To show by means of family studies that the RFLPs were inherited in a co-dominant Mendelian fashion. 4. To determine the population frequencies of these RFLPs in Southern African Populations, namely the Bantu-speaking Negroids and the San. 5. To assign these RFLP-detecting DNA sequences to human chromosomes using somatic cell hybrid lines. In this study DNA was labelled with Phosphorus 32

  20. Verification of serum reference intervals for free light chains in a local South African population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemlin, Annalise E; Rensburg, Megan A; Ipp, Hayley; Germishuys, Jurie J; Erasmus, Rajiv T

    2013-11-01

    Monoclonal serum free light chain measurements are used to follow up and manage patients with monoclonal gammopathies, and abnormal serum free light chain ratios are associated with risk of progression in certain diseases. We aimed to validate the reference intervals in our population. Reference intervals for κ and λ free light chains were established on 120 healthy adults. Creatinine levels were measured to exclude renal dysfunction and serum protein electrophoresis was performed. All creatinine values were within normal limits. After exclusion of subjects with abnormal serum protein electrophoreses, 113 subjects were available for analysis. The 95% reference interval was 6.3-20.6 mg/L for κ free light chains, 8.7-25.9 mg/L for λ free light chains and 0.46-1.23 for free light chain ratio. Most of the values fell within the manufacturer's recommended limits and therefore could be used for our population.

  1. Characteristics of the human host have little influence on which local Schistosoma mansoni populations are acquired.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lúcio M Barbosa

    Full Text Available Brazil remains the country in the Americas with the highest prevalence of schistosomiasis. A combination of control efforts and development, however, has sharply reduced its intensity and distribution. The acquisition of specific schistosome populations may be dependent on host characteristics such as sex, age, geography, work, habits and culture. How these and other host characteristics align with parasite subpopulations may guide approaches to improve control.A cohort of more than 90% of the residents in two rural communities in Brazil participated in an epidemiologic survey of demographic, socio-economic and behavioral characteristics. The variables sex, age, intensity of infection, socio-economic index, % lifetime spent on site, previous infection, and trips outside the district were used to group parasites infecting individuals. Schistosoma mansoni infection status was determined by examination of stools submitted on 3 different days. The aggregate of eggs collected from the whole stool was used to determine degree of population differentiation from allele frequencies for 15 microsatellites.Infection prevalence was 41% for these communities, and the epidemiologic characteristics were similar to many of the endemic areas of Brazil and the world. Parasite population structuring was observed between the two communities (Jost's D 0.046, CI95% 0.042-0.051, although separated by only 8 km and connected by a highway. No structuring was observed when infected individuals were stratified by host's biologic, demographic or epidemiologic characteristics. Those most heavily infected best reflected the communities' overall parasite diversity. The lack of differentiation within villages suggests that individuals are likely to get infected at the same sites or that the same parasite multilocus genotypes can be found at most sites. The geographic structuring between villages and the lack of structuring by age of the host further supports the impression of

  2. Integration of population mobility in the evaluation of air quality measures on local and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhondt, S.; Beckx, C.; Degraeuwe, B.; Lefebvre, W.; Kochan, B.; Bellemans, T.; Int Panis, L.; Macharis, C.; Putman, K.

    2012-11-01

    By focussing on air pollutant concentration levels only, the variation in population mobility is not taken into account when assessing the exposure. Transportation policies have an impact on both concentration levels and mobility patterns. The impact of a fuel price increase policy on population exposure to elemental carbon (EC) was evaluated and compared to the base scenario (current situation), taking into account time-activity patterns - including time in commute. We assessed the effect on exposure of both the change in concentrations and whereabouts. The decrease in exposure due to the fuel price increase using residential information only was limited to areas near highways and urban centres. Integrating population movement, exposures to EC were higher and the decrease in exposure was no longer limited to areas near traffic hotspots. For inhabitants of urban areas, the exposure integrating time-activity patterns was more similar to the residential exposure, as they spent more time in their own neighbourhood. For people living further away from traffic hotspots, the estimated impact of the policy was higher than expected for residential exposure. These people profited both from the higher decrease in concentrations at their work/shop/leisure destinations in more urban areas and, as they have to travel longer, also had a larger gain from the high decrease in concentrations during transport. Therefore, the impact of changing concentrations is underestimated when using residential exposure only. These results show the importance of taking into activity-travel patterns when planning future actions.

  3. Quantitative evidence for the effects of multiple drivers on continental-scale amphibian declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Miller, David A. W.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Adams, Michael J.; Amburgey, Staci M.; Chambert, Thierry A.; Cruickshank, Sam S.; Fisher, Robert N.; Green, David M.; Hossack, Blake R.; Johnson, Pieter T.J.; Joseph, Maxwell B.; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Ryan, Maureen E.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Walls, Susan C.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Fellers, Gary M.; Gorman, Thomas A.; Ray, Andrew M.; Pilliod, David S.; Price, Steven J.; Saenz, Daniel; Sadinski, Walt; Muths, Erin L.

    2016-01-01

    Since amphibian declines were first proposed as a global phenomenon over a quarter century ago, the conservation community has made little progress in halting or reversing these trends. The early search for a “smoking gun” was replaced with the expectation that declines are caused by multiple drivers. While field observations and experiments have identified factors leading to increased local extinction risk, evidence for effects of these drivers is lacking at large spatial scales. Here, we use observations of 389 time-series of 83 species and complexes from 61 study areas across North America to test the effects of 4 of the major hypothesized drivers of declines. While we find that local amphibian populations are being lost from metapopulations at an average rate of 3.79% per year, these declines are not related to any particular threat at the continental scale; likewise the effect of each stressor is variable at regional scales. This result - that exposure to threats varies spatially, and populations vary in their response - provides little generality in the development of conservation strategies. Greater emphasis on local solutions to this globally shared phenomenon is needed.

  4. Creating and managing radioactive waste disposal facilities with the involvement of the local populations - 59286

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farin, Sebastien

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: Andra is responsible for proposing and implementing industrial management solutions for all French radioactive waste. Andra is in particular in charge of operating the two repositories in the Aube region, monitoring the Manche repository one of the world's first surface repositories and creating disposal facilities for waste currently without an operational disposal solution. Andra's communication approach. Andra's communication role is stipulated by law and is an integral part of its activities, in the same way as research, industry or risk management. Andra's aim is to make the subject of radioactive waste management one that is of nationwide interest comprehensible to the largest possible number, so that each citizen and stakeholder can, in full possession of the facts, make his or her own opinion and finally reach an informed decision. Andra's communication policy is based on four main levers: - Information, through a full range of tools (web sites, publications, periodicals) adapted to the level of expertise and understanding of its various target audiences; - Explanation, by means of opportunities throughout the year for those interested in the subject (site visits, fairs, meetings with schools, travelling exhibitions, etc.); - Local integration, through regular relations with local players

  5. Genotyping of human lice suggests multiple emergencies of body lice from local head louse populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjun Li

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Genetic analyses of human lice have shown that the current taxonomic classification of head lice (Pediculus humanus capitis and body lice (Pediculus humanus humanus does not reflect their phylogenetic organization. Three phylotypes of head lice A, B and C exist but body lice have been observed only in phylotype A. Head and body lice have different behaviours and only the latter have been involved in outbreaks of infectious diseases including epidemic typhus, trench fever and louse borne recurrent fever. Recent studies suggest that body lice arose several times from head louse populations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: By introducing a new genotyping technique, sequencing variable intergenic spacers which were selected from louse genomic sequence, we were able to evaluate the genotypic distribution of 207 human lice. Sequence variation of two intergenic spacers, S2 and S5, discriminated the 207 lice into 148 genotypes and sequence variation of another two intergenic spacers, PM1 and PM2, discriminated 174 lice into 77 genotypes. Concatenation of the four intergenic spacers discriminated a panel of 97 lice into 96 genotypes. These intergenic spacer sequence types were relatively specific geographically, and enabled us to identify two clusters in France, one cluster in Central Africa (where a large body louse outbreak has been observed and one cluster in Russia. Interestingly, head and body lice were not genetically differentiated. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a hypothesis for the emergence of body lice, and suggest that humans with both low hygiene and head louse infestations provide an opportunity for head louse variants, able to ingest a larger blood meal (a required characteristic of body lice, to colonize clothing. If this hypothesis is ultimately supported, it would help to explain why poor human hygiene often coincides with outbreaks of body lice. Additionally, if head lice act as a reservoir for body lice, and that any social degradation in

  6. Balanites aegyptiaca (L. Delile: geographical distribution and ethnobotanical knowledge by local populations in the Ferlo (north Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sagna, MB.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Balanites aegyptiaca (L. Delile is a species of tropical flora for which the variety aegyptiaca is adapted to Sahelian climate. The species is among those chosen for the restoration of Sahelian ecosystems in the context of the pan-African reforestation project, the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and Sahel Initiative (GGW. This study redefines the distribution range and its ecology and studies its uses in the Ferlo region in the north of Senegal using surveys carried out among the local population. The eco-geographical study shows that the species occupies several Sahel-Saharan regions of Africa and the Middle East. With broad ecological amplitude, it is very resistant to drought and relatively indifferent to the type of soil. Results of the ethno-botanical survey show that local people in the Ferlo region have a wealth of knowledge and expertise on B. aegyptiaca. These surveys also revealed the extent to which local populations rely on the tree for food, fodder, construction and medicine. The fruit and wood are the most highly prized parts of the tree, with the greatest use of the fruit in people's diets. In medicinal terms, B. aegyptiaca is used to treat several affections. Marketing the fruits could be of socio-economic interest for local people, and in particular, for women. This study is particularly opportune since B. aegyptiaca var. aegyptiaca is currently being planted in large numbers within the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative (GGW. It also provides information that could help in better management of this natural resource, adapted both to the hostile Sahelian climate and of great use to Mankind.

  7. The 8p23 inversion polymorphism determines local recombination heterogeneity across human populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Joao M; Chikhi, Lounès; Amorim, António; Lopes, Alexandra M

    2014-04-01

    For decades, chromosomal inversions have been regarded as fascinating evolutionary elements as they are expected to suppress recombination between chromosomes with opposite orientations, leading to the accumulation of genetic differences between the two configurations over time. Here, making use of publicly available population genotype data for the largest polymorphic inversion in the human genome (8p23-inv), we assessed whether this inhibitory effect of inversion rearrangements led to significant differences in the recombination landscape of two homologous DNA segments, with opposite orientation. Our analysis revealed that the accumulation of genetic differentiation is positively correlated with the variation in recombination profiles. The observed recombination dissimilarity between inversion types is consistent across all populations analyzed and surpasses the effects of geographic structure, suggesting that both structures (orientations) have been evolving independently over an extended period of time, despite being subjected to the very same demographic history. Aside this mainly independent evolution, we also identified a short segment (350 kb, inversion) in the central region of the inversion where the genetic divergence between the two structural haplotypes is diminished. Although it is difficult to demonstrate it, this could be due to gene flow (possibly via double-crossing over events), which is consistent with the higher recombination rates surrounding this segment. This study demonstrates for the first time that chromosomal inversions influence the recombination landscape at a fine-scale and highlights the role of these rearrangements as drivers of genome evolution.

  8. Evaluating call-count procedures for measuring local mourning dove populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armbruster, M.J.; Baskett, T.S.; Goforth, W.R.; Sadler, K.C.

    1978-01-01

    Seventy-nine mourning dove call-count runs were made on a 32-km route in Osage County, Missouri, May 1-August 31, 1971 and 1972. Circular study areas, each 61 ha, surrounding stop numbers 4 and 5, were delineated for intensive nest searches and population estimates. Tallies of cooing male doves along the entire call-count route were quite variable in repeated runs, fluctuating as much as 50 percent on consecutive days. There were no consistent relationships between numbers of cooing males tallied at stops 4 and 5 and the numbers of current nests or doves estimated to be present in the surrounding study areas. We doubt the suitability of call-count procedures to estimate precisely the densities of breeding pairs, nests or production of doves on small areas. Our findings do not dispute the usefulness of the national call-count survey as an index to relative densities of mourning doves during the breeding season over large portions of the United States, or as an index to annual population trends.

  9. Locally advanced prostate cancer: a population-based study of treatment patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowrance, William T; Elkin, Elena B; Yee, David S; Feifer, Andrew; Ehdaie, Behfar; Jacks, Lindsay M; Atoria, Coral L; Zelefsky, Michael J; Scher, Howard I; Scardino, Peter T; Eastham, James A

    2012-05-01

    Study Type--Therapy (practice patterns). Level of Evidence 2b. What's known on the subject? And what does the study add? The treatment of locally advanced prostate cancer varies widely even though there is level one evidence supporting the use of multimodality therapy as compared with monotherapy. This study defines treatment patterns of locally advanced prostate cancer within the United States and identifies predicators of who receives multimodality therapy rather than monotherapy. • To identify treatment patterns and predictors of receiving multimodality therapy in patients with locally advanced prostate cancer (LAPC). • The cohort comprised patients ≥66 years with clinical stage T3 or T4 non-metastatic prostate cancer diagnosed between 1998 and 2005 identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registry records linked with Medicare claims. • Treatments were classified as radical prostatectomy (RP), radiation therapy (RT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) received within 6 and 24 months of diagnosis. • We assessed trends over time and used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of multimodality treatment. • Within the first 6 months of diagnosis, 1060 of 3095 patients (34%) were treated with a combination of RT and ADT, 1486 (48%) received monotherapy (RT alone, ADT alone or RP alone), and 461 (15%) received no active treatment. • The proportion of patients who received RP increased, exceeding 10% in 2005. • Use of combined RT and ADT and use of ADT alone fluctuated throughout the study period. • In all 6% of patients received RT alone in 2005. • Multimodality therapy was less common in patients who were older, African American, unmarried, who lived in the south, and who had co-morbidities or stage T4 disease. • Treatment of LAPC varies widely, and treatment patterns shifted during the study period. • The slightly increased use of multimodality therapy since 2003 is encouraging, but

  10. Locally adapted fish populations maintain small-scale genetic differentiation despite perturbation by a catastrophic flood event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plath, Martin; Hermann, Bernd; Schröder, Christiane; Riesch, Rüdiger; Tobler, Michael; García de León, Francisco J; Schlupp, Ingo; Tiedemann, Ralph

    2010-08-23

    Local adaptation to divergent environmental conditions can promote population genetic differentiation even in the absence of geographic barriers and hence, lead to speciation. Perturbations by catastrophic events, however, can distort such parapatric ecological speciation processes. Here, we asked whether an exceptionally strong flood led to homogenization of gene pools among locally adapted populations of the Atlantic molly (Poecilia mexicana, Poeciliidae) in the Cueva del Azufre system in southern Mexico, where two strong environmental selection factors (darkness within caves and/or presence of toxic H2S in sulfidic springs) drive the diversification of P. mexicana. Nine nuclear microsatellites as well as heritable female life history traits (both as a proxy for quantitative genetics and for trait divergence) were used as markers to compare genetic differentiation, genetic diversity, and especially population mixing (immigration and emigration) before and after the flood. Habitat type (i.e., non-sulfidic surface, sulfidic surface, or sulfidic cave), but not geographic distance was the major predictor of genetic differentiation. Before and after the flood, each habitat type harbored a genetically distinct population. Only a weak signal of individual dislocation among ecologically divergent habitat types was uncovered (with the exception of slightly increased dislocation from the Cueva del Azufre into the sulfidic creek, El Azufre). By contrast, several lines of evidence are indicative of increased flood-induced dislocation within the same habitat type, e.g., between different cave chambers of the Cueva del Azufre. The virtual absence of individual dislocation among ecologically different habitat types indicates strong natural selection against migrants. Thus, our current study exemplifies that ecological speciation in this and other systems, in which extreme environmental factors drive speciation, may be little affected by temporary perturbations, as adaptations

  11. Using Africa's protected area network to estimate the global population of a threatened and declining species: a case study of the Critically Endangered White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murn, Campbell; Mundy, Peter; Virani, Munir Z; Borello, Wendy D; Holloway, Graham J; Thiollay, Jean-Marc

    2016-02-01

    The White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis (WhV) is uncommon and largely restricted to protected areas across its range in sub-Saharan Africa. We used the World Database on Protected Areas to identify protected areas (PAs) likely to contain White-headed Vultures. Vulture occurrence on road transects in Southern, East, and West Africa was adjusted to nests per km(2) using data from areas with known numbers of nests and corresponding road transect data. Nest density was used to calculate the number of WhV nests within identified PAs and from there extrapolated to estimate the global population. Across a fragmented range, 400 PAs are estimated to contain 1893 WhV nests. Eastern Africa is estimated to contain 721 nests, Central Africa 548 nests, Southern Africa 468 nests, and West Africa 156 nests. Including immature and nonbreeding birds, and accounting for data deficient PAs, the estimated global population is 5475 - 5493 birds. The identified distribution highlights are alarming: over 78% (n = 313) of identified PAs contain fewer than five nests. A further 17% (n = 68) of PAs contain 5 - 20 nests and 4% (n = 14) of identified PAs are estimated to contain >20 nests. Just 1% (n = 5) of PAs are estimated to contain >40 nests; none is located in West Africa. Whilst ranging behavior of WhVs is currently unknown, 35% of PAs large enough to hold >20 nests are isolated by more than 100 km from other PAs. Spatially discrete and unpredictable mortality events such as poisoning pose major threats to small localized vulture populations and will accelerate ongoing local extinctions. Apart from reducing the threat of poisoning events, conservation actions promoting linkages between protected areas should be pursued. Identifying potential areas for assisted re-establishment via translocation offers the potential to expand the range of this species and alleviate risk.

  12. Genetic diversity in a population of rhinoclemmys nasuta (Testudines: Geoemydidae) associated with an insular locality in the Choco biogeographic region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo Cutiva, Leslie Anais; Giraldo, Alan; Barreto, Guillermo

    2014-01-01

    Characterization of the genetic diversity of Rhinoclemmys nasuta population inhabits Isla Palma (Malaga Bay, Valle del Cauca) was carried out using three microsatellite systems (cm72, cm58 and cm"3). In this locality, individuals of R. nasuta are widely distributed in the inland streams and creeks system. 100 to 200 ml of peripheral blood was taken off from ten turtles in five streams of the island, preserving samples in a 0.5 m EDTA. DNA was extracted using salting-out and chelex solution techniques. PCR amplified products were visualized and measured in polyacrylamide gels stained with silver nitrate. successful amplification products were obtained for all systems analyzed, two of which (cm72 and cm3) were found to be monomorphic, while the system cm58 had a high pic (0.698) allowing to estimate the genetic diversity of this population. The observed heterozygosity was low (ho = 0.26) and inbreeding indices fis and fit were high (0.67857 and 0.67881), indicating an excess of homozygotes in each of the rivers and for the all population. The molecular analysis of variance suggested that there is no difference in genetic structure of the population (FST = 0.00075, p= 0.95112). Therefore, the results suggest that the genetic diversity of R. nasutapopulation in Isla Palma was low and exhibited a highly inbred index.

  13. The fertility decline in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, W C; Harbison, S F

    1995-01-01

    In Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya is a prime example of a country experiencing a rapid decline in fertility and greater contraceptive prevalence. These changes have occurred since 1980 when fertility was high at 8.0 children per woman. In 1993 the total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.4, and the growth rate declined to about 2.0%. This transition is swifter than any country in contemporary Asia or historical Europe. The likely projection for Kenya is attainment of replacement level fertility during the 2020s and a leveling of population at about 100 million persons. Fertility has declined the most in urban areas and central and eastern regions. Bongaarts' proximate determinants (TFR, total marital fertility rate, total natural marital fertility rate, and total fecundity) are reduced to the proportion of currently married women using contraception, the proportion in lactational nonfecund status, and the proportion currently married. Actual fertility change is accounted for by total fertility change of 3.0 children. Lactational infecundability accounts for 0.5 potential births, and changes in marital fertility account for 1.0 reduced births per woman. About 70% of fertility reduction is accounted for by contraception and abortion. During 1977-78 80% of fertility control was due to lactational nonfecundity, 10% to nonmarriage, and 10% to contraception. In 1993 lactational nonfecundity accounted for 50% of the reduction, nonmarriage for 20%, and abortion about 30%. Future fertility is expected to be dependent on contraceptive prevalence. Kenya has experienced the Coale paradigm of preconditions necessary for demographic transition (willing, ready, and able). High fertility in Africa is not intractable. Creating the change in attitudes that leads to readiness is linked to education, health, and exposure to modernizing media and urban lifestyles. The public sector family planning program in Kenya has created the opportunity for access and availability of contraception. The key

  14. Local introduction and heterogeneous spatial spread of dengue-suppressing Wolbachia through an urban population of Aedes aegypti.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom L Schmidt

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Dengue-suppressing Wolbachia strains are promising tools for arbovirus control, particularly as they have the potential to self-spread following local introductions. To test this, we followed the frequency of the transinfected Wolbachia strain wMel through Ae. aegypti in Cairns, Australia, following releases at 3 nonisolated locations within the city in early 2013. Spatial spread was analysed graphically using interpolation and by fitting a statistical model describing the position and width of the wave. For the larger 2 of the 3 releases (covering 0.97 km2 and 0.52 km2, we observed slow but steady spatial spread, at about 100-200 m per year, roughly consistent with theoretical predictions. In contrast, the smallest release (0.11 km2 produced erratic temporal and spatial dynamics, with little evidence of spread after 2 years. This is consistent with the prediction concerning fitness-decreasing Wolbachia transinfections that a minimum release area is needed to achieve stable local establishment and spread in continuous habitats. Our graphical and likelihood analyses produced broadly consistent estimates of wave speed and wave width. Spread at all sites was spatially heterogeneous, suggesting that environmental heterogeneity will affect large-scale Wolbachia transformations of urban mosquito populations. The persistence and spread of Wolbachia in release areas meeting minimum area requirements indicates the promise of successful large-scale population transformation.

  15. Neotropical Amphibian Declines Affect Stream Ecosystem Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connelly, S.; Pringle, C. M.; Bixby, R. J.; Whiles, M. R.; Lips, K. R.; Brenes, R.; Colon-Gaud, J. C.; Kilham, S.; Hunte-Brown, M.

    2005-05-01

    Global declines of amphibians are well documented, yet effects of these dramatic losses on ecosystem structure and function are poorly understood. As part of a larger collaborative project, we compared two upland Panamanian streams. Both streams are biologically and geologically similar; however, one stream (Fortuna) has recently experienced almost complete extirpation of stream-dwelling frogs, while the other (Cope) still has intact populations. We experimentally excluded tadpoles from localized areas in each stream. We then compared chlorophyll a, algal community composition, ash-free dry mass (AFDM), inorganic matter, and insect assemblages in control and exclusion areas. Additionally, we sampled the natural substrate of both streams monthly for chlorophyll a, algal community composition, AFDM, and inorganic matter. At Cope, chlorophyll a, AFDM, and inorganic matter were greater in areas where tadpoles were excluded than in their presence. Numbers of dominant algal species (e.g., Nupela praecipua and Eunotia siolii) were greater in the exclusion versus control treatments. Monthly sampling of natural substrate indicated higher chlorophyll a and AFDM at Cope compared to Fortuna. Our data suggest that stream-dwelling anuran larvae have significant impacts on algal communities. These results also have implications for predicting the relevance of short-term experimental manipulations to long-term, whole-stream processes.

  16. Global health and local poverty: rich countries' responses to vulnerable populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simms, Chris D; Persaud, D David

    2009-01-01

    Poverty is an important determinant of ill health, mortality and suffering across the globe. This commentary asks what we can learn about poverty by looking at the way rich countries respond to the needs of vulnerable populations both within their own societies and those of low-income countries. Taking advantage of recent efforts to redefine child poverty in a way that is consistent with the World Health Organization's Commission on Social Determinants of Health, three sets of data are reviewed: levels of child well-being within 23 Organization of Economic Community Development countries; the amount of official development assistance these countries disburse to poor countries; and, government social transfers targeted at families as a percentage of GDP. Analysis shows that countries in Northern Europe tend to have lower levels of child poverty, and are the most generous with social transfers and providing development assistance to poor countries; in contrast, the non-European countries like Australia, Canada, Japan, and the United States, and generally, the G7 countries, are the least generous towards the vulnerable at home and abroad and tend to have the highest levels of child poverty. The findings suggest that nations' responses tend to be ideologically based rather than evidence or needs based and that poverty is neither inevitable nor intractable.

  17. Panoramic radiological study to identify locally displaced maxillary canines in Bangladeshi population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alif, Sheikh Mohammad; Haque, Sejuty; Nimmi, Naima; Ashraf, Ali; Khan, Saeed Hossain; Khan, Mahfujul Haq

    2011-01-01

    This study was performed to determine the prevalence of maxillary canine impaction on a basis of a single panoramic radiograph in Bangladeshi population. A random sample of seven hundred panoramic radiographs was collected from the patient record of a dental clinic. All the selected panoramic radiographs were taken from January 2009 to August 2010 by a single panoramic radiograph machine with the same exposure time (19 seconds) for all radiographs. One hundred and twenty panoramic radiographs were excluded to minimize the selection bias. In a dim lit room, an observer assessed the radiographs on a standard radiographic light box. The position of the impacted maxillary canine was recorded in line with the longitudinal axis of a tooth using the edge of a metal ruler. Data were subsequently put on SPSS 11.5 software and chi-square (x 2 ) tests were applied to find out the association. Among 580 panoramic radiographs it was found that impacted maxillary canines were present in only 7 (1.2%) radiographs. A statistical significant difference was found between the age of the patients and the vertical position of the impacted canines (p=0.000) and between the age of the patients and the horizontal position of the impacted canines (p=0.003). The prevalence was found to be low compared with the present study from the limitation of panoramic image. Further study needs to include three-dimensional imaging modality.

  18. Population differences in host use by a seed-beetle: local adaptation, phenotypic plasticity and maternal effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarillo-Suárez, Angela R; Fox, Charles W

    2006-11-01

    For insects that develop inside discrete hosts, both host size and host quality constrain offspring growth, influencing the evolution of body size and life history traits. Using a two-generation common garden experiment, we quantified the contribution of maternal and rearing hosts to differences in growth and life history traits between populations of the seed-feeding beetle Stator limbatus that use a large-seeded host, Acacia greggii, and a small-seeded host, Pseudosamanea guachapele. Populations differed genetically for all traits when beetles were raised in a common garden. Contrary to expectations from the local adaptation hypothesis, beetles from all populations were larger, developed faster and had higher survivorship when reared on seeds of A. greggii (the larger host), irrespective of their native host. We observed two host plant-mediated maternal effects: offspring matured sooner, regardless of their rearing host, when their mothers were reared on P. guachapele (this was not caused by an effect of rearing host on egg size), and females laid larger eggs on P. guachapele. This is the first study to document plasticity by S. limbatus in response to P. guachapele, suggesting that plasticity is an ancestral trait in S. limbatus that likely plays an important role in diet expansion. Although differences between populations in growth and life history traits are likely adaptations to their host plants, host-associated maternal effects, partly mediated by maternal egg size plasticity, influence growth and life history traits and likely play an important role in the evolution of the breadth of S. limbatus' diet. More generally, phenotypic plasticity mediates the fitness consequences of using novel hosts, likely facilitating colonization of new hosts, but also buffering herbivores from selection post-colonization. Plasticity in response to novel versus normal hosts varied among our study populations such that disentangling the historical role of plasticity in

  19. Phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation in leaf ecophysiological traits of 13 contrasting cork oak populations under different water availabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Valiente, Jose Alberto; Sánchez-Gómez, David; Aranda, Ismael; Valladares, Fernando

    2010-05-01

    Plants distributed across a wide range of environmental conditions are submitted to differential selective pressures. Long-term selection can lead to the development of adaptations to the local environment, generating ecotypic differentiation. Additionally, plant species can cope with this environmental variability by phenotypic plasticity. In this study, we examine the importance of both processes in coping with environmental heterogeneity in the Mediterranean sclerophyllous cork oak Quercus suber. For this purpose, we measured growth and key functional traits at the leaf level in 9-year-old plants across 2 years of contrasting precipitation (2005 and 2006) in a common garden. Plants were grown from acorns originated from 13 populations spanning a wide range of climates along the distribution range of the species. The traits measured were: leaf size (LS), specific leaf area (SLA), carbon isotope discrimination (Delta(13)C) and leaf nitrogen content per unit mass (N(mass)). Inter-population differences in LS, SLA and Delta(13)C were found. These differences were associated with rainfall and temperature at the sites of origin, suggesting local adaptation in response to diverging climates. Additionally, SLA and LS exhibited positive responses to the increase in annual rainfall. Year effect explained 28% of the total phenotypic variance in LS and 2.7% in SLA. There was a significant genotype x environment interaction for shoot growth and a phenotypic correlation between the difference in shoot growth among years and the annual mean temperature at origin. This suggests that populations originating from warm sites can benefit more from wet conditions than populations from cool sites. Finally, we investigated the relationships between functional traits and aboveground growth by several regression models. Our results showed that plants with lower SLA presented larger aboveground growth in a dry year and plants with larger leaf sizes displayed larger growth rates in both

  20. The Localized Scleroderma Cutaneous Assessment Tool: responsiveness to change in a pediatric clinical population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Christina E; Torok, Kathryn S

    2013-08-01

    Lack of agreement on how to accurately capture disease outcomes in localized scleroderma (LS) has hindered the development of efficacious treatment protocols. The LS Cutaneous Assessment Tool (LoSCAT), consisting of the modified LS Skin Severity Index (mLoSSI) and the LS Damage Index, has potential for use in clinical trials. The goal of this article is to further evaluate the clinical responsiveness of the LoSCAT. Based on the modifiable nature of disease activity versus damage, we expected the mLoSSI to be responsive to change. At 2 study visits, a physician completed the LoSCAT and Physician Global Assessment (PGA) of Disease Activity and of Disease Damage for 29 patients with LS. Spearman correlations were used to examine the relationships between the change in the LoSCAT and the PGA scores. To evaluate contrasted group validity, patients were grouped according to disease activity classification and change scores of groups were compared. Minimal clinically important differences were calculated and compared with the standard error of measurement. Change in the mLoSSI score correlated strongly with change in the PGA of Disease Activity score, whereas change in the LS Damage Index score correlated weakly with change in the PGA of Disease Damage score. The mLoSSI and PGA of Disease Activity exhibited contrasted group validity. Minimal clinically important differences for the activity measures were greater than the respective standard errors of measurement. Only 2 study visits were included in analysis. This study gives further evidence that the LoSCAT, specifically the mLoSSI, is a responsive, valid measure of activity in LS and should be used in future treatment studies. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Determinants of eating at local and western fast-food venues in an urban Asian population: a mixed methods approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidoo, Nasheen; van Dam, Rob M; Ng, Sheryl; Tan, Chuen Seng; Chen, Shiqi; Lim, Jia Yi; Chan, Mei Fen; Chew, Ling; Rebello, Salome A

    2017-05-25

    Like several Southeast Asian countries, Singapore has a complex eating-out environment and a rising eating-out prevalence. However the determinants and drivers of eating-out in urban Asian environments are poorly understood. We examined the socio-demographic characteristics of persons who frequently ate away from home in local eateries called hawker centres and Western fast-food restaurants, using data from 1647 Singaporean adults participating in the National Nutrition Survey (NNS) 2010. We also assessed the underlying drivers of eating out and evaluated if these were different for eating at local eateries compared to Western fast-food restaurants using 18 focus group discussions of women (130 women). Participants reported a high eating-out frequency with 77.3% usually eating either breakfast, lunch or dinner at eateries. Main venues for eating-out included hawker centres (61.1% usually ate at least 1 of 3 daily meals at this venue) and school/workplace canteens (20.4%). A minority of participants (1.9%) reported usually eating at Western fast-food restaurants. Younger participants and those of Chinese and Malay ethnicity compared to Indians were more likely to eat at Western fast-food restaurants. Chinese and employed persons were more likely to eat at hawker centres. The ready availability of a large variety of affordable and appealing foods appeared to be a primary driver of eating out, particularly at hawker centres. Our findings highlight the growing importance of eating-out in an urban Asian population where local eating venues play a more dominant role compared with Western fast-food chains. Interventions focusing on improving the food quality at venues for eating out are important to improve the diet of urban Asian populations.

  2. Effect of BDNF Val66Met polymorphism on digital working memory and spatial localization in a healthy Chinese Han population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pingyuan; Zheng, Anyun; Chen, Dongmei; Ge, Wanhua; Lv, Changchao; Zhang, Kejin; Gao, Xiaocai; Zhang, Fuchang

    2009-07-01

    Cognitive abilities are complex human traits influenced by genetic factors. Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), a unique polypeptide growth factor, has an influence on the differentiation and survival of neurons in the nervous system. A single-nucleotide polymorphism (rs6265) in the human gene, resulting in a valine to methionine substitution in the pro-BDNF protein, was thought to associate with psychiatric disorders and might play roles in the individual difference of cognitive abilities. However, the specific roles of the gene in cognition remain unclear. To investigate the relationships between the substitution and cognitive abilities, a healthy population-based study and the PCR-SSCP method were performed. The results showed the substitution was associated with digital working memory (p = 0.02) and spatial localization (p = 0.03), but not with inhibition, shifting, updating, visuo-spatial working memory, long-term memory, and others (p > 0.05) among the compared genotype groups analyzed by general linear model. On the other hand, the participants with BDNF (GG) had higher average performance in digital working memory and spatial localization than the ones with BDNF (AA). The findings of the present work implied that the variation in BDNF might play positive roles in human digital working memory and spatial localization.

  3. Diagnostic utility of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) and its combination with the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised (ACE-R) in a memory clinic-based population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, P; Larner, A J

    2009-06-01

    The study aimed to assess the clinical utility of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) in patients referred to memory clinics, alone and in combination with the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised (ACE-R) and the Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE). This pragmatic prospective study was based on consecutive referrals attending with an informant (n = 144) to two memory clinics over a 12-month period. Patients were diagnosed using standard clinical diagnostic criteria for dementia (DSM-IV) as gold standard (dementia prevalence = 59%). The IQCODE was administered to informants, and the ACE-R and/or MMSE to most patients. The IQCODE proved acceptable to informants, and was quick and easy to use. Using traditional parameters of diagnostic utility (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, likelihood ratios), the performance of the IQCODE at optimal test accuracy was highly sensitive (0.86) for the diagnosis of dementia but specificity was poor (0.39) with suboptimal positive predictive value (0.67) and small or unimportant likelihood ratios. Overall diagnostic accuracy based on area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.71. Combining the IQCODE with either ACE-R or MMSE greatly improved accuracy, specificity and positive predictive value when the tests were used in series, but not when used in parallel. In a memory clinic based population, the IQCODE proved sensitive for the diagnosis of dementia but overall diagnostic accuracy was suboptimal. Combining the IQCODE in series with the ACE-R or MMSE greatly improved diagnostic utility.

  4. A robust and powerful two-step testing procedure for local ancestry adjusted allelic association analysis in admixed populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Qing; Xu, Zheng; Raffield, Laura M; Chang, Suhua; Wu, Di; Lange, Ethan M; Reiner, Alex P; Li, Yun

    2018-04-01

    Genetic association studies in admixed populations allow us to gain deeper understanding of the genetic architecture of human diseases and traits. However, population stratification, complicated linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns, and the complex interplay of allelic and ancestry effects on phenotypic traits pose challenges in such analyses. These issues may lead to detecting spurious associations and/or result in reduced statistical power. Fortunately, if handled appropriately, these same challenges provide unique opportunities for gene mapping. To address these challenges and to take these opportunities, we propose a robust and powerful two-step testing procedure Local Ancestry Adjusted Allelic (LAAA) association. In the first step, LAAA robustly captures associations due to allelic effect, ancestry effect, and interaction effect, allowing detection of effect heterogeneity across ancestral populations. In the second step, LAAA identifies the source of association, namely allelic, ancestry, or the combination. By jointly modeling allele, local ancestry, and ancestry-specific allelic effects, LAAA is highly powerful in capturing the presence of interaction between ancestry and allele effect. We evaluated the validity and statistical power of LAAA through simulations over a broad spectrum of scenarios. We further illustrated its usefulness by application to the Candidate Gene Association Resource (CARe) African American participants for association with hemoglobin levels. We were able to replicate independent groups' previously identified loci that would have been missed in CARe without joint testing. Moreover, the loci, for which LAAA detected potential effect heterogeneity, were replicated among African Americans from the Women's Health Initiative study. LAAA is freely available at https://yunliweb.its.unc.edu/LAAA. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  5. The hELENa project - I. Stellar populations of early-type galaxies linked with local environment and galaxy mass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sybilska, A.; Lisker, T.; Kuntschner, H.; Vazdekis, A.; van de Ven, G.; Peletier, R.; Falcón-Barroso, J.; Vijayaraghavan, R.; Janz, J.

    2017-09-01

    We present the first in a series of papers in The role of Environment in shaping Low-mass Early-type Nearby galaxies (hELENa) project. In this paper, we combine our sample of 20 low-mass early types (dEs) with 258 massive early types (ETGs) from the ATLAS3D survey - all observed with the SAURON integral field unit - to investigate early-type galaxies' stellar population scaling relations and the dependence of the population properties on local environment, extended to the low-σ regime of dEs. The ages in our sample show more scatter at lower σ values, indicative of less massive galaxies being affected by the environment to a higher degree. The shape of the age-σ relations for cluster versus non-cluster galaxies suggests that cluster environment speeds up the placing of galaxies on the red sequence. While the scaling relations are tighter for cluster than for the field/group objects, we find no evidence for a difference in average population characteristics of the two samples. We investigate the properties of our sample in the Virgo cluster as a function of number density (rather than simple clustrocentric distance) and find that dE ages correlate with the local density such that galaxies in regions of lower density are younger, likely because they are later arrivals to the cluster or have experienced less pre-processing in groups, and consequently used up their gas reservoir more recently. Overall, dE properties correlate more strongly with density than those of massive ETGs, which was expected as less massive galaxies are more susceptible to external influences.

  6. Female Choice Undermines the Emergence of Strong Sexual Isolation between Locally Adapted Populations of Atlantic Mollies (Poecilia mexicana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Zimmer

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Divergent selection between ecologically dissimilar habitats promotes local adaptation, which can lead to reproductive isolation (RI. Populations in the Poecilia mexicana species complex have independently adapted to toxic hydrogen sulfide and show varying degrees of RI. Here, we examined the variation in the mate choice component of prezygotic RI. Mate choice tests across drainages (with stimulus males from another drainage suggest that specific features of the males coupled with a general female preference for yellow color patterns explain the observed variation. Analyses of male body coloration identified the intensity of yellow fin coloration as a strong candidate to explain this pattern, and common-garden rearing suggested heritable population differences. Male sexual ornamentation apparently evolved differently across sulfide-adapted populations, for example because of differences in natural counterselection via predation. The ubiquitous preference for yellow color ornaments in poeciliid females likely undermines the emergence of strong RI, as female discrimination in favor of own males becomes weaker when yellow fin coloration in the respective sulfide ecotype increases. Our study illustrates the complexity of the (partly non-parallel pathways to divergence among replicated ecological gradients. We suggest that future work should identify the genomic loci involved in the pattern reported here, making use of the increasing genomic and transcriptomic datasets available for our study system.

  7. Adaptive differentiation coincides with local bioclimatic conditions along an elevational cline in populations of a lichen-forming fungus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Grande, Francesco; Sharma, Rahul; Meiser, Anjuli; Rolshausen, Gregor; Büdel, Burkhard; Mishra, Bagdevi; Thines, Marco; Otte, Jürgen; Pfenninger, Markus; Schmitt, Imke

    2017-03-31

    Many fungal species occur across a variety of habitats. Particularly lichens, fungi forming symbioses with photosynthetic partners, have evolved remarkable tolerances for environmental extremes. Despite their ecological importance and ubiquity, little is known about the genetic basis of adaption in lichen populations. Here we studied patterns of genome-wide differentiation in the lichen-forming fungus Lasallia pustulata along an altitudinal gradient in the Mediterranean region. We resequenced six populations as pools and identified highly differentiated genomic regions. We then detected gene-environment correlations while controlling for shared population history and pooled sequencing bias, and performed ecophysiological experiments to assess fitness differences of individuals from different environments. We detected two strongly differentiated genetic clusters linked to Mediterranean and temperate-oceanic climate, and an admixture zone, which coincided with the transition between the two bioclimates. High altitude individuals showed ecophysiological adaptations to wetter and more shaded conditions. Highly differentiated genome regions contained a number of genes associated with stress response, local environmental adaptation, and sexual reproduction. Taken together our results provide evidence for a complex interplay between demographic history and spatially varying selection acting on a number of key biological processes, suggesting a scenario of ecological speciation.

  8. Health state of population in the locality of the Mochovce nuclear power plant after four years of operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letkovicova, M.; Letkovicova, H.; Letkovic, M.

    2002-01-01

    The Mochovce NPP was put into the operation in 1998. Authors monitor the health state of the population in its vicinity since 1993. The authors recorded this health state also in before-operational safety report of Mochovce NPP. The authors show in the presentation the evaluation of nine years, five before putting of Mochovce NPP into the operation and four during its operation. The aim of the authors is to evaluate the state of chosen health indicators in individual villages in whole monitored region and to try to found out the differences between of their size before and after putting the Mochovce NPP into the operation. Authors used the methods of so-called population epidemiology, where they evaluate the health risks by the system of multidimensional mathematical-statistical methods, by using of the theory of fuzzy sets. The Mochovce region belongs for the long period to the regions with very unfavourable health state. Its very general comparison with one year all Slovak values of the relevant indicators in 2000 are following: more newborn on thousand inhabitants (in 12 per cent) (consequence of wholly older population), higher general mortality of population (in 11 per cent), higher premature mortality of population (in 17 per cent), higher mortality from selected causes, thus malignant tumours of digestive tract (in 20 per cent), higher mortality from malignant tumours of lungs (in 25 per cent), higher mortality from malignant tumours of leukaemia (in 25 per cent). However the authors found out very positive findings in the evaluation of the trends: in the case of fifteen most serious health indicators in the vicinity of Mochovce NPP authors state also mathematically visible influence on the surroundings, which is registerable only in positive meaning. There are created the demonstrable clusters of the villages with low general, also premature women mortality. This locality was far off the industrial and cultural centres, there were always historically higher

  9. Comparative biology and population mixing among local, coastal and offshore Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and western Baltic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slotte, Aril; Johannessen, Arne; Kvamme, Cecilie; Clausen, Lotte Worsøe; Nash, Richard D. M.

    2017-01-01

    The population structure of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) from 13 local, coastal and offshore areas of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and western Baltic (northeast Atlantic) was studied using biological and environmental data from 1970–2015. The objective was to identify distinct populations by comparing variability in the temporal and spatial phenotypic characteristics and evaluate the potential for mixing of populations in time and space. The populations varied in biological characteristics such as mean vertebral counts (VS), growth and maturity ogives. Generalized additive models indicated temporally stable VS in the North Sea and western Baltic, whereas intra-annual temporal variation of VS occurred in other areas. High variability of VS within a population was not affected by environmental factors such as temperature and salinity. Consequently, seasonal VS variability can be explained by the presence or absence of herring populations as they migrate between areas. The three main populations identified in this paper correspond to the three managed stocks in this area: Norwegian spring spawners (NSS), western Baltic spring spawners (WBSS) and North Sea autumn spawners (NSAS). In addition, several local populations were identified in fjords or lakes along the coast, but our analyses could not detect direct mixing of local populations with the three main populations. Our results highlight the importance of recognizing herring dynamics and understanding the mixing of populations as a challenge for management of herring. PMID:29084258

  10. Derangement of lipid profile in antiepileptic drugs treated patients in local population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuberi, N.A.; Perveen, T.

    2012-01-01

    Epilepsy is the third most common neurological disorder. It is not a single entity. The abnormal electrical activity may result in a variety of events, including loss of consciousness, abnormal movements, a typical or odd behavior or distorted perceptions falls seizers. Epilepsy is a chronic disorder and often requiring years of treatment. A large number of drugs are used for the treatment of epilepsy. The choice among the antiepileptic drugs depends on its effectiveness and side effects. Our retrospective study investigated the effect of anti epileptic drugs on lipid profile. Serum lipid profile was measured in 160 patients in which 40 patients were not started any antiepileptic drug .The remaining 120 patients were receiving antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). 40 control subjects were taken from general population for comparison. The height, weight and body mass index (BMI) and lipid profile of antiepileptic drugs treated patients were compared with control and untreated group. The weight and body mass index of antiepileptic drugs treated group was significantly increased when compared to the control group. Total Cholesterol (TC), Triglyceride (TO), High density lipoprotein (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein (LDL-C), ratio TC/HDL-C and ratio LDL-C/HDL-C were investigated for each group of drugs and controls. TC, TO, LDL-C, ratio TC/HDL-C and ratio LDL-C/HDL-C were significantly increased in patients who were on AEDs when compared with control but HDL-C of all drug treated groups showed significantly decreased when compared with control group. There was significant change in lipid profile was seen in AEDs treated group when compared with control group. Ratio TC/HDL-C and ratio LDUHDL-C alteration showed the risk of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular diseases. Anti-epileptic drugs also alter the BMI and so it could potentially facilitate the development of diabetes mellitus. Our results additionally suggest that there is a need for careful monitoring of lipid profile in

  11. Population success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    . Access to contraceptives is, of course, a major influence on fertility decline. According to UNFPA some of the Latin American countries have the highest contraceptive use among developing countries. The countries of Asia come next and contraceptives are least used in sub-Saharan Africa where birth rates of 45/1000 are still common. The money for population programs, says the report, has come largely from developing countries themselves. A survey of 15 countries showed them to have contributed 67% out of their own budgets--the rest having come from external aid. And in programs aided by UNFPA the local input has been even higher. During 1979-1981 the developing countries themselves budgeted $4.6 for each dollar budgeted by UNFPA. The report also highlights some of the emerging problems for the next 2 decades--and which will be high on the agenda of the 1984 conference. These include "uncontrolled urban growth" in developing countries as well as an important change in overall population age structure as more and more old people survive. Aging populations are of particular concern to the developed countries but, as the report points out, even countries like China--which has achieved a steep drop in fertility and mortality--will face the problems of an aging population by the year 2000. full text

  12. Homology blocks of Plasmodium falciparum var genes and clinically distinct forms of severe malaria in a local population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rorick, Mary M; Rask, Thomas S; Baskerville, Edward B; Day, Karen P; Pascual, Mercedes

    2013-11-06

    The primary target of the human immune response to the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1), is encoded by the members of the hyper-diverse var gene family. The parasite exhibits antigenic variation via mutually exclusive expression (switching) of the ~60 var genes within its genome. It is thought that different variants exhibit different host endothelial binding preferences that in turn result in different manifestations of disease. Var sequences comprise ancient sequence fragments, termed homology blocks (HBs), that recombine at exceedingly high rates. We use HBs to define distinct var types within a local population. We then reanalyze a dataset that contains clinical and var expression data to investigate whether the HBs allow for a description of sequence diversity corresponding to biological function, such that it improves our ability to predict disease phenotype from parasite genetics. We find that even a generic set of HBs, which are defined for a small number of non-local parasites: capture the majority of local sequence diversity; improve our ability to predict disease severity from parasite genetics; and reveal a previously hypothesized yet previously unobserved parasite genetic basis for two forms of severe disease. We find that the expression rates of some HBs correlate more strongly with severe disease phenotypes than the expression rates of classic var DBLα tag types, and principal components of HB expression rate profiles further improve genotype-phenotype models. More specifically, within the large Kenyan dataset that is the focus of this study, we observe that HB expression differs significantly for severe versus mild disease, and for rosetting versus impaired consciousness associated severe disease. The analysis of a second much smaller dataset from Mali suggests that these HB-phenotype associations are consistent across geographically distant populations, since we find evidence suggesting

  13. The progenitors of local ultra-massive galaxies across cosmic time: from dusty star-bursting to quiescent stellar populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marchesini, Danilo; Marsan, Cemile Z. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155 (United States); Muzzin, Adam; Franx, Marijn [Leiden Observatory, Leiden University, PO Box 9513, NL-2300 RA Leiden (Netherlands); Stefanon, Mauro [Physics and Astronomy Department, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211 (United States); Brammer, Gabriel G. [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Vulcani, Benedetta [Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI), Todai Institutes for Advanced Study, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa 277-8582 (Japan); Fynbo, J. P. U.; Milvang-Jensen, Bo [Dark Cosmology Centre, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, DK-2100 Copenhagen (Denmark); Dunlop, James S.; Buitrago, Fernando [SUPA, Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom)

    2014-10-10

    Using the UltraVISTA catalogs, we investigate the evolution in the 11.4 Gyr since z = 3 of the progenitors of local ultra-massive galaxies (log (M {sub star}/M {sub ☉}) ≈ 11.8; UMGs), providing a complete and consistent picture of how the most massive galaxies at z = 0 have assembled. By selecting the progenitors with a semi-empirical approach using abundance matching, we infer a growth in stellar mass of 0.56{sub −0.25}{sup +0.35} dex, 0.45{sub −0.20}{sup +0.16} dex, and 0.27{sub −0.12}{sup +0.08} dex from z = 3, z = 2, and z = 1, respectively, to z = 0. At z < 1, the progenitors of UMGs constitute a homogeneous population of only quiescent galaxies with old stellar populations. At z > 1, the contribution from star-forming galaxies progressively increases, with the progenitors at 2 < z < 3 being dominated by massive (M {sub star} ≈ 2 × 10{sup 11} M {sub ☉}), dusty (A {sub V} ∼ 1-2.2 mag), star-forming (SFR ∼ 100-400 M {sub ☉} yr{sup –1}) galaxies with a large range in stellar ages. At z = 2.75, ∼15% of the progenitors are quiescent, with properties typical of post-starburst galaxies with little dust extinction and strong Balmer break, and showing a large scatter in color. Our findings indicate that at least half of the stellar content of local UMGs was assembled at z > 1, whereas the remaining was assembled via merging from z ∼ 1 to the present. Most of the quenching of the star-forming progenitors happened between z = 2.75 and z = 1.25, in good agreement with the typical formation redshift and scatter in age of z = 0 UMGs as derived from their fossil records. The progenitors of local UMGs, including the star-forming ones, never lived on the blue cloud since z = 3. We propose an alternative path for the formation of local UMGs that refines previously proposed pictures and that is fully consistent with our findings.

  14. Impact of black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis minor) on a local population of Euphorbia bothae in the Great Fish River Reserve, South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luske, B.L.; Mertens, T.; Lent, P.C.; Boer, de W.F.; Prins, H.H.T.

    2009-01-01

    In the Great Fish River Reserve, South Africa, black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis minor) feed extensively on a local population of Euphorbia bothae. Maintaining the endangered black rhinoceros and the protected E. bothae population are both conservation priorities of the reserve. Therefore, the

  15. Local adaptations to frost in marginal and central populations of the dominant forest tree Fagus sylvatica L. as affected by temperature and extreme drought in common garden experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreyling, Juergen; Buhk, Constanze; Backhaus, Sabrina; Hallinger, Martin; Huber, Gerhard; Huber, Lukas; Jentsch, Anke; Konnert, Monika; Thiel, Daniel; Wilmking, Martin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2014-03-01

    Local adaptations to environmental conditions are of high ecological importance as they determine distribution ranges and likely affect species responses to climate change. Increased environmental stress (warming, extreme drought) due to climate change in combination with decreased genetic mixing due to isolation may lead to stronger local adaptations of geographically marginal than central populations. We experimentally observed local adaptations of three marginal and four central populations of Fagus sylvaticaL., the dominant native forest tree, to frost over winter and in spring (late frost). We determined frost hardiness of buds and roots by the relative electrolyte leakage in two common garden experiments. The experiment at the cold site included a continuous warming treatment; the experiment at the warm site included a preceding summer drought manipulation. In both experiments, we found evidence for local adaptation to frost, with stronger signs of local adaptation in marginal populations. Winter frost killed many of the potted individuals at the cold site, with higher survival in the warming treatment and in those populations originating from colder environments. However, we found no difference in winter frost tolerance of buds among populations, implying that bud survival was not the main cue for mortality. Bud late frost tolerance in April differed between populations at the warm site, mainly because of phenological differences in bud break. Increased spring frost tolerance of plants which had experienced drought stress in the preceding summer could also be explained by shifts in phenology. Stronger local adaptations to climate in geographically marginal than central populations imply the potential for adaptation to climate at range edges. In times of climate change, however, it needs to be tested whether locally adapted populations at range margins can successfully adapt further to changing conditions.

  16. Investigating Stakeholder Perceptions of Fish Decline: Making Sense of Multiple Mental Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Horowitz

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Stakeholders have different educational backgrounds, personal experiences and priorities that contribute to different perceptions about what causes natural resource decline and how to sustain a resource. Yet stakeholders have a common interest, which is to keep the resource of interest from declining. Effective co-management requires sharing of perceptions pertaining to the sustainability of a resource and making decisions that benefit all stakeholders. Therefore, this study used modified causal networks, referred to here as mental models, to elicit and compare stakeholder perceptions about fish decline in the Danajon Bank, Philippines. Perceptions were elicited from three types of stakeholders, each composed of two or three elicitation groups: fishers, local government and environmental organizations. Data were also elicited through semi-structured discussions to investigate why perceptions differed and how stakeholders communicated with one another. Hierarchical clustering revealed two broad clusters of similar perceptions about drivers of fish decline: one being environmental groups and the second being local government and fisher groups. Stakeholder communication patterns revealed that communication was weakest between environmental groups and fishers. A likely contributing factor for the lack of shared perceptions was that knowledge-sharing was constrained by the small number of environmental personnel available to exchange information effectively with the much larger number of fishers and local government personnel. To better co-manage fish populations in Danajon Bank, we suggest modifications to the governance framework to improve knowledge-sharing and social and ecological outcomes.

  17. Growth, survival, longevity, and population size of the Big Mouth Cave salamander (Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides) from the type locality in Grundy County, Tennessee, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemiller, Matthew L.; Glorioso, Brad M.; Fenolio, Dante B.; Reynolds, R. Graham; Taylor, Steven J.; Miller, Brian T.

    2016-01-01

    Salamander species that live entirely in subterranean habitats have evolved adaptations that allow them to cope with perpetual darkness and limited energy resources. We conducted a 26-month mark–recapture study to better understand the individual growth and demography of a population of the Big Mouth Cave Salamander (Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides). We employed a growth model to estimate growth rates, age at sexual maturity, and longevity, and an open population model to estimate population size, density, detectability, and survival rates. Furthermore, we examined cover use and evidence of potential predation. Individuals probably reach sexual maturity in 3–5 years and live at least nine years. Survival rates were generally high (>75%) but declined during the study. More than 30% of captured salamanders had regenerating tails or tail damage, which presumably represent predation attempts by conspecifics or crayfishes. Most salamanders (>90%) were found under cover (e.g., rocks, trash, decaying plant material). Based on 11 surveys during the study, population size estimates ranged from 21 to 104 individuals in the ca. 710 m2 study area. Previous surveys indicated that this population experienced a significant decline from the early 1970s through the 1990s, perhaps related to silvicultural and agricultural practices. However, our data suggest that this population has either recovered or stabilized during the past 20 years. Differences in relative abundance between early surveys and our survey could be associated with differences in survey methods or sampling conditions rather than an increase in population size. Regardless, our study demonstrates that this population is larger than previously thought and is in no immediate risk of extirpation, though it does appear to exhibit higher rates of predation than expected for a species believed to be an apex predator of subterranean food webs.

  18. Physical Trauma among Refugees: Comparison between Refugees and Local Population Who Were Admitted to Emergency Department-Experience of a State Hospital in Syrian Border District.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duzkoylu, Yigit; Basceken, Salim Ilksen; Kesilmez, Emrullah Cem

    2017-01-01

    Hundreds of thousands of people have fled to Turkey since the civil war started in Syria in 2011. Refugees and local residents have been facing various challenges such as sociocultural and economic ones and access to health services. Trauma exposure is one of the most important and underestimated health problems of refugees settling in camps. We aimed to evaluate refugee admissions to emergency department because of trauma in means of demographics of patients and mechanism of trauma and compare the results with the local population. Retrospective evaluation of results and comparison with the results of local population. We determined that the ratio of emergency admission of refugee patients because of trauma was significantly higher than the local population for most types of trauma. Further studies with more refugee participants are needed to fully understand the underlying reasons for this high ratio to protect refugees as well as for planning to take caution to attenuate the burden on healthcare systems.

  19. Rapid recovery of genetic diversity of dogwhelk (Nucella lapillus L.) populations after local extinction and recolonization contradicts predictions from life-history characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colson, I; Hughes, R N

    2004-08-01

    The dogwhelk Nucella lapillus is a predatory marine gastropod populating North Atlantic rocky shores. As with many other gastropod species, N. lapillus was affected by tributyltin (TBT) pollution during the 1970s and 1980s, when local populations became extinct. After a partial ban on TBT in the United Kingdom in 1987, vacant sites have been recolonized. N. lapillus lacks a planktonic larval stage and is therefore expected to have limited dispersal ability. Relatively fast recolonization of some sites, however, contradicts this assumption. We compared levels of genetic diversity and genetic structuring between recolonized sites and sites that showed continuous population at three localities across the British Isles. No significant genetic effects of extinction/recolonization events were observed in SW Scotland and NE England. In SW England we observed a decrease in genetic diversity and an increase in genetic structure in recolonized populations. This last result could be an artefact, however, due to the superposition of other local factors influencing the genetic structuring of dogwhelk populations. We conclude that recolonization of vacant sites was accomplished by a relatively high number of individuals originating from several source populations (the 'migrant-pool' model of recolonization), implying that movements are more widespread than expected on the basis of development mode alone. Comparison with published data on genetic structure of marine organisms with contrasted larval dispersal supports this hypothesis. Our results also stress the importance of local factors (geographical or ecological) in determining genetic structure of dogwhelk populations. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

  20. Kinship and the decline of fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y

    1996-01-01

    China's family planning and population control policies, together with the move toward a more market-oriented economy since the 1980s, have led to significant change in people's reproductive values and behavior and a substantial decline in fertility. Traditional kinship in China, its terminology, and the impact of fertility decline on kinship in China and Chinese society are discussed. The decline in fertility is affecting or will affect China's kinship system, the corresponding pattern of terminology, and the social structure. In the more market-oriented economy which has been developing in China, the simplification of the kinship system will help change the structure of Chinese society and weaken the traditional patriarchal culture. A more individualized, contractualized social structure and relationships will result.

  1. Estuarine and marine diets of out-migrating Chinook Salmon smolts in relation to local zooplankton populations, including harmful blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chittenden, C. M.; Sweeting, R.; Neville, C. M.; Young, K.; Galbraith, M.; Carmack, E.; Vagle, S.; Dempsey, M.; Eert, J.; Beamish, R. J.

    2018-01-01

    Changes in food availability during the early marine phase of wild Chinook Salmon (O. tshawytscha) are being investigated as a cause of their recent declines in the Salish Sea. The marine survival of hatchery smolts, in particular, has been poor. This part of the Salish Sea Marine Survival Project examined the diet of young out-migrating Chinook Salmon for four consecutive years in the Cowichan River estuary and in Cowichan Bay, British Columbia, Canada. Local zooplankton communities were monitored during the final year of the study in the Cowichan River estuary, Cowichan Bay, and eastward to the Salish Sea to better understand the bottom-up processes that may be affecting Chinook Salmon survival. Rearing environment affected body size, diet, and distribution in the study area. Clipped smolts (hatchery-reared) were larger than the unclipped smolts (primarily naturally-reared), ate larger prey, spent very little time in the estuary, and disappeared from the bay earlier, likely due to emigration or mortality. Their larger body size may be a disadvantage for hatchery smolts if it necessitates their leaving the estuary prematurely to meet energy needs; the onset of piscivory began at a forklength of approximately 74 mm, which was less than the average forklength of the clipped fish in this study. The primary zooplankton bloom occurred during the last week of April/first week of May 2013, whereas the main release of hatchery-reared Chinook Salmon smolts occurs each year in mid-May-this timing mismatch may reduce their survival. Gut fullness was correlated with zooplankton biomass; however, both the clipped and unclipped smolts were not observed in the bay until the bloom of harmful Noctiluca was finished-20 days after the maximum recorded zooplankton abundance. Jellyfish medusa flourished in nearshore areas, becoming less prevalent towards the deeper waters of the Salish Sea. The sizable presence of Noctiluca and jellyfish in the zooplankton blooms may be repelling

  2. Significant population of Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus population in Morocco has undergone a marked decline since the 1980s to the point of nearing local extinction in the twenty-first century. A field study of some possible sites for Egyptian Vultures was carried out over six days during June 2014 in the Middle Atlas Mountains, ...

  3. Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

    1978-10-01

    This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

  4. Is reduced benthic flux related to the Diporeia decline? Analysis of spring blooms and whiting events in Lake Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, James M.; Rudstam, Lars G.; Crabtree, Darran L.; Walsh, Maureen

    2013-01-01

    Benthic monitoring by USGS off the southern shore of Lake Ontario from October 1993 to October 1995 provides a detailed view of the early stages of the decline of the native amphipod Diporeia. A loss of the 1994 and 1995 year classes of Diporeia preceded the disappearance of the native amphipod at sites near Oswego and Rochester at depths from 55 to 130 m. In succeeding years, Diporeia populations continued to decline in Lake Ontario and were nearly extirpated by 2008. Explanations for Diporeia 's decline in the Great Lakes include several hypotheses often linked to the introduction and expansion of exotic zebra and quagga mussels (Dreissena sp.). We compare the timeline of the Diporeia decline in Lake Ontario with trends in two sources of organic matter to the sediments — spring diatom blooms and late summer whiting events. The 1994–95 decline of Diporeia coincided with localized dreissenid effects on phytoplankton in the nearshore and a year (April 1994 to May 1995) of decreased flux of organic carbon recorded by sediment traps moored offshore of Oswego. Later declines of profundal (> 90 m) Diporeia populations in 2003 were poorly associated with trends in spring algal blooms and late summer whiting events. Lake Ontario/Diporeia/Dreissena/remote sensing.

  5. Mortality differences between the foreign-born and locally-born population in France (2004-2007).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulogne, Roxane; Jougla, Eric; Breem, Yves; Kunst, Anton E; Rey, Grégoire

    2012-04-01

    In contrast to the situation in many European countries, the mortality of immigrants in France has been little studied. The main reasons for the lack of studies are based on ethical and ideological considerations. The objective of this study is to explore mortality by country of birth in Metropolitan (i.e. 'mainland') France. Complete mortality data were used to study the relative risks of mortality of the foreign- and locally-born populations by gender, age and cause of death for the period 2004-2007 in Metropolitan France. Analyses were conducted by countries of birth grouped into geographic areas and by the Human Development Index (HDI). The differentials in mortality between foreign-born and locally-born populations were not homogeneous. The figures varied by age (higher foreign-born mortality for the young; lower mortality for migrants aged 15-64 years), gender (female migrants more frequently had higher relative mortality than men migrants), country of birth (Eastern European-born migrants had higher mortality, while those born in Morocco, Central Asia, 'other Asian countries' and America had lower mortality) and cause of death (migrant mortality was higher overall for deaths caused by infectious diseases and diabetes, and lower for violent death and neoplasm). Moreover, mortality relative risks for male, violent deaths and cancer were positively associated with country-of-birth HDI, while female mortality and infectious disease mortality were negatively associated with country-of-birth HDI. Some important caveats have to be considered because the study did not control for individuals socioeconomic position in France, or length of residence in the host country. A strong healthy migrant effect was suggested and its intensity varies with age and gender (which may reflect different reasons for migration). For some specific causes of death, a lifestyle effect seems to explain mortality differentials. The associations between HDI and mortality show that mortality

  6. Alarming decline and range reduction of the highly threatened Great ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A Great Bustard Otis tarda survey carried out in spring 2015 in Morocco confirmed the decline of this highly endangered population. Bustards were only seen at two of the seven leks occupied ten years ago. The total number of birds counted was 40-44, which represents a 40% decline over the last decade. The sex-ratio ...

  7. Does Child Labor Decline with Improving Economic Status?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, Eric V.

    2005-01-01

    The rapid economic growth of Vietnam provides an interesting insight into the sharp decline in child labor. A study of the rising economic status of the population across Vietnam shows that children returned to school or stopped working as their family incomes grew. The decline in child labor is steep in poor households as they emerged from…

  8. Life expectancy estimation in small administrative areas with non-uniform population sizes: application to Australian New South Wales local government areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Alexandre S; Purdie, Stuart; Yang, Baohui; Moore, Helen

    2013-12-02

    To determine a practical approach for deriving life expectancy estimates in Australian New South Wales local government areas which display a large diversity in population sizes. Population-based study utilising mortality and estimated residential population data. 153 local government areas in New South Wales, Australia. Key performance measures of Chiang II, Silcocks, adjusted Chiang II and Bayesian random effects model methodologies of life expectancy estimation including agreement analysis of life expectancy estimates and comparison of estimate SEs. Chiang II and Silcocks methods produced almost identical life expectancy estimates across a large range of population sizes but calculation failures and excessively large SEs limited their use in small populations. A population of 25 000 or greater was required to estimate life expectancy with SE of 1 year or less using adjusted Chiang II (a composite of Chiang II and Silcocks methods). Data aggregation offered some remedy for extending the use of adjusted Chiang II in small populations but reduced estimate currency. A recently developed Bayesian random effects model utilising the correlation in mortality rates between genders, age groups and geographical areas markedly improved the precision of life expectancy estimates in small populations. We propose a hybrid approach for the calculation of life expectancy using the Bayesian random effects model in populations of 25 000 or lower permitting the precise derivation of life expectancy in small populations. In populations above 25 000, we propose the use of adjusted Chiang II to guard against violations of spatial correlation, to benefit from a widely accepted method that is simpler to communicate to local health authorities and where its slight inferior performance compared with the Bayesian approach is of minor practical significance.

  9. Short-term effects of avian predation variation on population size and local survival of the multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis (Rodentia, Muridae)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gulck, T. van; Stocks, R.; Verhagen, Ron

    1998-01-01

    The influence of avian predation on population size and local survival of Mastomys natalensis rats in Tanzania was studied in a capture-recapture study over a six month period on experimental fields with decreased, controlled and increased predation pressure. Bird observations indicated that the ......The influence of avian predation on population size and local survival of Mastomys natalensis rats in Tanzania was studied in a capture-recapture study over a six month period on experimental fields with decreased, controlled and increased predation pressure. Bird observations indicated...... that the placement of perches increased local hunting activity of at least the Black Shouldered Kite but there were no obvious effects on rodent population size or survival. In a single field where avian predation was prevented by covering the field with a net, an increase in survival was observed. The opposite...

  10. Cessation of a salmon decline with control of parasites

    KAUST Repository

    Peacock, Stephanie J.; Krkošek, Martin; Proboszcz, Stan; Orr, Craig; Lewis, Mark A.

    2013-01-01

    (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) from Pacific Canada indicates that adaptive changes in parasite management on salmon farms have yielded positive conservation outcomes. After four years of sea lice epizootics and wild salmon population decline, parasiticide application

  11. Neighborhood Decline and the Economic Crisis (discussion paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwiers, M.D.; Bolt, G.; Van Ham, M.; Van Kempen, R.

    2014-01-01

    Neighborhood decline is a complex and multidimensional process. National and regional variation in economic and political structures (including variety in national welfare state arrangements), combined with differences in neighborhood history, development and population composition, makes it

  12. Poison blamed for decline of Spain's majestic Black Vultures

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2007-03-01

    catastrophic” decline in numbers because of illegal poisoning by hunters. The use of poisoned bait to kill foxes, badgers, wild dogs, feral cats and smaller birds of prey has reduced the population by almost a half in the past decade,.

  13. Reed Warbler Hosts Fine-Tune their Defenses to Track Three Decades of Cuckoo Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorogood, Rose; Davies, Nicholas B

    2013-01-01

    Interactions between avian hosts and brood parasites can provide a model for how animals adapt to a changing world. Reed warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus) hosts employ costly defenses to combat parasitism by common cuckoos (Cuculus canorus). During the past three decades cuckoos have declined markedly across England, reducing parasitism at our study site (Wicken Fen) from 24% of reed warbler nests in 1985 to 1% in 2012. Here we show with experiments that host mobbing and egg rejection defenses have tracked this decline in local parasitism risk: the proportion of reed warbler pairs mobbing adult cuckoos (assessed by responses to cuckoo mounts and models) has declined from 90% to 38%, and the proportion rejecting nonmimetic cuckoo eggs (assessed by responses to model eggs) has declined from 61% to 11%. This is despite no change in response to other nest enemies or mimetic model eggs. Individual variation in both defenses is predicted by parasitism risk during the host’s egg-laying period. Furthermore, the response of our study population to temporal variation in parasitism risk can also explain spatial variation in egg rejection behavior in other populations across Europe. We suggest that spatial and temporal variation in parasitism risk has led to the evolution of plasticity in reed warbler defenses. PMID:24299407

  14. Farmer's lung is now in decline.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Arya, A

    2012-02-03

    Farmer\\'s lung incidence in Ireland was constant until 1996, even though hay making methods were revolutionised in late 1980\\'s. We undertook this study to find out the incidence of farmer\\'s lung in Ireland from 1982-2002 and its correlation with rainfall and the effect of changing farm practices. The primary cases of farmer\\'s lung were identified from Hospital in Patients Enquiry (HIPE) unit of the national Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) Dublin. Rainfall data were obtained from Met Eireann whereas population, hay production and silage production were obtained from the Central Statistics Office, Dublin. As the farming population is in decline, we used the annual working unit (AWU), which reflects the true population at risk. An AWU is the equivalent of 1800 hours per farm worker per year. The incidence rates were constant from 1982-1996, but from 1997-2002 a marked decline was observed. There was strong positive correlation with hay production (r = 0.81) and strong negative correlation with silage production (r = -0.82). This study indicates that the incidence of farmer\\'s lung is now in decline.

  15. IQ as moderator of terminal decline in perceptual and motor speed, spatial, and verbal ability: Testing the cognitive reserve hypothesis in a population-based sample followed from age 70 until death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorvaldsson, Valgeir; Skoog, Ingmar; Johansson, Boo

    2017-03-01

    Terminal decline (TD) refers to acceleration in within-person cognitive decline prior to death. The cognitive reserve hypothesis postulates that individuals with higher IQ are able to better tolerate age-related increase in brain pathologies. On average, they will exhibit a later onset of TD, but once they start to decline, their trajectory is steeper relative to those with lower IQ. We tested these predictions using data from initially nondemented individuals (n = 179) in the H70-study repeatedly measured at ages 70, 75, 79, 81, 85, 88, 90, 92, 95, 97, 99, and 100, or until death, on cognitive tests of perceptual-and-motor-speed and spatial and verbal ability. We quantified IQ using the Raven's Coloured Progressive Matrices (RCPM) test administrated at age 70. We fitted random change point TD models to the data, within a Bayesian framework, conditioned on IQ, age of death, education, and sex. In line with predictions, we found that 1 additional standard deviation on the IQ scale was associated with a delay in onset of TD by 1.87 (95% highest density interval [HDI; 0.20, 4.08]) years on speed, 1.96 (95% HDI [0.15, 3.54]) years on verbal ability, but only 0.88 (95% HDI [-0.93, 3.49]) year on spatial ability. Higher IQ was associated with steeper rate of decline within the TD phase on measures of speed and verbal ability, whereas results on spatial ability were nonconclusive. Our findings provide partial support for the cognitive reserve hypothesis and demonstrate that IQ can be a significant moderator of cognitive change trajectories in old age. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. HOW TO DESIGN NUTRITIONAL INTERVENTION TRIALS TO SLOW COGNITIVE DECLINE IN APPARENTLY HEALTHY POPULATIONS AND APPLY FOR EFFICACY CLAIMS: A STATEMENT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL ACADEMY ON NUTRITION AND AGING TASK FORCE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, M.; Coley, N.; Andrieu, S.; Bonhomme, C.; Caubere, J.P.; Cesari, M.; Gautry, J.; Garcia Sanchez, I.; Hugonot, L.; Mansuy, L.; Pahor, M.; Pariente, J.; Ritz, P.; Salva, A.; Sijben, J.; Wieggers, R.; Ythier-Moury, P.; Zaim, M.; Zetlaoui, J.; Vellas, B.

    2015-01-01

    Interventions are crucial as they offer simple and inexpensive public health solutions that will be useful over the long term use. A Task Force on designing trials of nutritional interventions to slow cognitive decline in older adults was held in Toulouse in September 2012. The aim of the Task Force was to bring together leading experts from academia, the food industry and regulatory agencies to determine the best trial designs that would enable us to reach our goal of maintaining or improving cognitive function in apparently healthy aging people. An associated challenge for this Task Force was to determine the type of trials required by the Public Food Agencies for assessing the impact of nutritional compounds in comparison to well established requirements for drug trials. Although the required quality of the study design, rationale and statistical analysis remains the same, the studies designed to show reduction of cognitive decline require a long duration and the objectives of this task force was to determine best design for these trials. Two specific needs were identified to support trials of nutritional interventions: 1- Risk- reduction strategies are needed to tackle the growing burden of cognitive decline that may lead to dementia, 2- Innovative study designs are needed to improve the quality of these studies. PMID:23933873

  17. Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

    2016-01-01

    Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

  18. Composite selection signals can localize the trait specific genomic regions in multi-breed populations of cattle and sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Discerning the traits evolving under neutral conditions from those traits evolving rapidly because of various selection pressures is a great challenge. We propose a new method, composite selection signals (CSS), which unifies the multiple pieces of selection evidence from the rank distribution of its diverse constituent tests. The extreme CSS scores capture highly differentiated loci and underlying common variants hauling excess haplotype homozygosity in the samples of a target population. Results The data on high-density genotypes were analyzed for evidence of an association with either polledness or double muscling in various cohorts of cattle and sheep. In cattle, extreme CSS scores were found in the candidate regions on autosome BTA-1 and BTA-2, flanking the POLL locus and MSTN gene, for polledness and double muscling, respectively. In sheep, the regions with extreme scores were localized on autosome OAR-2 harbouring the MSTN gene for double muscling and on OAR-10 harbouring the RXFP2 gene for polledness. In comparison to the constituent tests, there was a partial agreement between the signals at the four candidate loci; however, they consistently identified additional genomic regions harbouring no known genes. Persuasively, our list of all the additional significant CSS regions contains genes that have been successfully implicated to secondary phenotypic diversity among several subpopulations in our data. For example, the method identified a strong selection signature for stature in cattle capturing selective sweeps harbouring UQCC-GDF5 and PLAG1-CHCHD7 gene regions on BTA-13 and BTA-14, respectively. Both gene pairs have been previously associated with height in humans, while PLAG1-CHCHD7 has also been reported for stature in cattle. In the additional analysis, CSS identified significant regions harbouring multiple genes for various traits under selection in European cattle including polledness, adaptation, metabolism, growth rate, stature

  19. Competing-Risks Mortality After Radiotherapy vs. Observation for Localized Prostate Cancer: A Population-based Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdollah, Firas, E-mail: firas.abdollah@gmail.com [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan (Italy); Sun, Maxine [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Schmitges, Jan [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Martini-Clinic, Prostate Cancer Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg (Germany); Thuret, Rodolphe [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, University of Montpellier Health Centre, Montpellier (France); Tian, Zhe [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Shariat, Shahrokh F. [Department of Urology, Weill Medical College of Cornell University, New York, NY (United States); Briganti, Alberto [Department of Urology, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan (Italy); Jeldres, Claudio; Perrotte, Paul [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Montorsi, Francesco [Department of Urology, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan (Italy); Karakiewicz, Pierre I. [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: Contemporary patients with localized prostate cancer (PCa) are more frequently treated with radiotherapy. However, there are limited data on the effect of this treatment on cancer-specific mortality (CSM). Our objective was to test the relationship between radiotherapy and survival in men with localized PCa and compare it with those treated with observation. Methods: A population-based cohort identified 68,797 men with cT1-T2 PCa treated with radiotherapy or observation between the years 1992 and 2005. Propensity-score matching was used to minimize potential bias related to treatment assignment. Competing-risks analyses tested the effect of treatment type (radiotherapy vs. observation) on CSM, after accounting to other-cause mortality. All analyses were carried out within PCa risk, baseline comorbidity status, and age groups. Results: Radiotherapy was associated with more favorable 10-year CSM rates than observation in patients with high-risk PCa (8.8 vs. 14.4%, hazard ratio [HR]: 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50-0.68). Conversely, the beneficial effect of radiotherapy on CSM was not evident in patients with low-intermediate risk PCa (3.7 vs. 4.1%, HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.80-1.04). Radiotherapy was beneficial in elderly patients (5.6 vs. 7.3%, HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.59-0.80). Moreover, it was associated with improved CSM rates among patients with no comorbidities (5.7 vs. 6.5%, HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.98), one comorbidity (4.6 vs. 6.0%, HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.75-0.99), and more than two comorbidities (4.2 vs. 5.0%, HR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65-0.96). Conclusions: Radiotherapy substantially improves CSM in patients with high-risk PCa, with little or no benefit in patients with low-/intermediate-risk PCa relative to observation. These findings must be interpreted within the context of the limitations of observational data.

  20. Mobility decline in old age

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rantakokko, Merja; Mänty, Minna Regina; Rantanen, Taina

    2013-01-01

    Mobility is important for community independence. With increasing age, underlying pathologies, genetic vulnerabilities, physiological and sensory impairments, and environmental barriers increase the risk for mobility decline. Understanding how mobility declines is paramount to finding ways...... to promote mobility in old age....

  1. Additional pest surveyed: hickory decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer Juzwik; Ji-Hyun. Park

    2011-01-01

    A five year investigation of the cause of rapid crown decline and mortality of bitternut hickory was concluded in September 2011. Results of a series of related studies found that multiple cankers and xylem (the water conducting tissue) dysfunction caused by Ceratocystis smalleyi are correlated with rapid crown decline typical of a limited vascular...

  2. Groundwater-based water wells characterization from Guinea Bissau (Western Africa): A risk evaluation for the local population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrante, Margherita; Signorelli, Salvatore Santo; Ferlito, Santina Letizia; Grasso, Alfina; Dimartino, Angela; Copat, Chiara

    2018-04-01

    The study conducted in two regions of Guinea Bissau, Oio and Cacheu, focusing on the characterization of the groundwater supplies sampled during the dry season and their associated risks for human health. Twenty samples were collected in wells located nearby pit latrines. In situ analyses were conducted with Semi-quantitative test strips for the determination of turbidity, pH, chloride, carbonate, sulfites, ammonium, nitrite and nitrate. The analysis of metals was performed by an ICP-MS Elan DRC-e and an ICP-OES Optima 8000. The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) was applied to evaluate the risk of developing chronic systemic effects derived from exposure to metals. Values of concern of turbidity ammonium, and pH values were lower than the normal range for drinking water in most samples. From both regions, Fe and Al were occasionally found with values higher than the international thresholds fixed by the World Health Organization and by the European Commission for drinking water, while, only in one sample from Cacheu region Pb was found significantly above these limits. THQs resulted next to the level of risk (1) for the highest values found of Al, As, Fe and Mn. Of great concern is the resident risk obtained from a well water of Cacheu for the highest value of Pb (96.8μg/L), because the values of the resident risk found of 1 and 0.7 for child and adults respectively. The results obtained highlighted a close correlation between the chemistry of water and sediment and a correlation with the proximity of the water supplies with the latrines. This study evidenced the potential toxicity of the water supplies for the local populations and the risk of developing chronic systemic effects due to some physico-chemical parameters, the importance of functioning water pipeline system, the importance of maintaining adequate distance between latrines and drinking water access. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Monitoring of local CD8 β-expressing cell populations during Eimeria tenella infection of naïve and immune chickens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wattrang, Eva; Thebo, Per; Lunden, Anna

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to monitor abundance and activation of local CD8β-expressing T-cell populations during Eimeria tenella infections of naïve chickens and chickens immune by previous infections. Chickens were infected with E. tenella up to three times. Caecal T-cell receptor (TCR) γ...

  4. The ATLAS3D project - XXI. Correlations between gradients of local escape velocity and stellar populations in early-type galaxies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scott, Nicholas; Cappellari, Michele; Davies, Roger L.; Kleijn, Gijs Verdoes; Bois, Maxime; Alatalo, Katherine; Blitz, Leo; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; McDermid, Richard M.; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    We explore the connection between the local escape velocity, Vesc, and the stellar population properties in the ATLAS3D survey, a complete, volume-limited sample of nearby early-type galaxies. We make use of ugriz photometry to construct Multi-Gaussian Expansion models of the surface brightnesses of

  5. The ATLAS(3D) project : XXI. Correlations between gradients of local escape velocity and stellar populations in early-type galaxies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scott, Nicholas; Cappellari, Michele; Davies, Roger L.; Kleijn, Gijs Verdoes; Bois, Maxime; Alatalo, Katherine; Blitz, Leo; Bournaud, Frederic; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnovic, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; McDermid, Richard M.; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    2013-01-01

    We explore the connection between the local escape velocity, V-esc, and the stellar population properties in the ATLAS(3D) survey, a complete, volume-limited sample of nearby early-type galaxies. We make use of ugriz photometry to construct Multi-Gaussian Expansion models of the surface brightnesses

  6. Illegal killing for ivory drives global decline in African elephants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittemyer, George; Northrup, Joseph M; Blanc, Julian; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain; Omondi, Patrick; Burnham, Kenneth P

    2014-09-09

    Illegal wildlife trade has reached alarming levels globally, extirpating populations of commercially valuable species. As a driver of biodiversity loss, quantifying illegal harvest is essential for conservation and sociopolitical affairs but notoriously difficult. Here we combine field-based carcass monitoring with fine-scale demographic data from an intensively studied wild African elephant population in Samburu, Kenya, to partition mortality into natural and illegal causes. We then expand our analytical framework to model illegal killing rates and population trends of elephants at regional and continental scales using carcass data collected by a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species program. At the intensively monitored site, illegal killing increased markedly after 2008 and was correlated strongly with the local black market ivory price and increased seizures of ivory destined for China. More broadly, results from application to continental data indicated illegal killing levels were unsustainable for the species between 2010 and 2012, peaking to ∼ 8% in 2011 which extrapolates to ∼ 40,000 elephants illegally killed and a probable species reduction of ∼ 3% that year. Preliminary data from 2013 indicate overharvesting continued. In contrast to the rest of Africa, our analysis corroborates that Central African forest elephants experienced decline throughout the last decade. These results provide the most comprehensive assessment of illegal ivory harvest to date and confirm that current ivory consumption is not sustainable. Further, our approach provides a powerful basis to determine cryptic mortality and gain understanding of the demography of at-risk species.

  7. The role of marine reserves in the replenishment of a locally-impacted population of anemonefish on the Great Barrier Reef

    KAUST Repository

    Bonin, Mary C.; Harrison, Hugo B.; Williamson, David H.; Frisch, Ashley J.; Saenz Agudelo, Pablo; Berumen, Michael L.; Jones, Geoffrey P.

    2015-01-01

    The development of parentage analysis to track the dispersal of juvenile offspring has given us unprecedented insight into the population dynamics of coral reef fishes. These tools now have the potential to inform fisheries management and species conservation, particularly for small fragmented populations under threat from exploitation and disturbance. In this study we resolve patterns of larval dispersal for a population of the anemonefish Amphiprion melanopus in the Keppel Islands (southern Great Barrier Reef). Habitat loss and fishing appear to have impacted this population and a network of no-take marine reserves currently protects 75% of the potential breeders. Using parentage analysis, we estimate that 21% of recruitment in the island group was generated locally, and that breeding adults living in reserves were responsible for 79% (31 out of 39) of these of locally-produced juveniles. Overall, the network of reserves was fully connected via larval dispersal; however one reserve was identified as a critical source of larvae for the island group. The population in the Keppel Islands also appears to be well-connected to other source populations at least 60 km away, given that 79% (145 out of 184) of the juveniles sampled remained unassigned in the parentage analysis. We estimated the effective size of the A. melanopus metapopulation to be 745 (582-993 95% CI) and recommend continued monitoring of its genetic status. Maintaining connectivity with populations beyond the Keppel Islands and recovery of local recruitment habitat, potentially through active restoration of host anemone populations, will be important for its long-term persistence.

  8. The role of marine reserves in the replenishment of a locally-impacted population of anemonefish on the Great Barrier Reef

    KAUST Repository

    Bonin, Mary C.

    2015-11-21

    The development of parentage analysis to track the dispersal of juvenile offspring has given us unprecedented insight into the population dynamics of coral reef fishes. These tools now have the potential to inform fisheries management and species conservation, particularly for small fragmented populations under threat from exploitation and disturbance. In this study we resolve patterns of larval dispersal for a population of the anemonefish Amphiprion melanopus in the Keppel Islands (southern Great Barrier Reef). Habitat loss and fishing appear to have impacted this population and a network of no-take marine reserves currently protects 75% of the potential breeders. Using parentage analysis, we estimate that 21% of recruitment in the island group was generated locally, and that breeding adults living in reserves were responsible for 79% (31 out of 39) of these of locally-produced juveniles. Overall, the network of reserves was fully connected via larval dispersal; however one reserve was identified as a critical source of larvae for the island group. The population in the Keppel Islands also appears to be well-connected to other source populations at least 60 km away, given that 79% (145 out of 184) of the juveniles sampled remained unassigned in the parentage analysis. We estimated the effective size of the A. melanopus metapopulation to be 745 (582-993 95% CI) and recommend continued monitoring of its genetic status. Maintaining connectivity with populations beyond the Keppel Islands and recovery of local recruitment habitat, potentially through active restoration of host anemone populations, will be important for its long-term persistence.

  9. From regionally predictable to locally complex population structure in a freshwater top predator: River systems are not always the unit of connectivity in Northern Pike Esox lucius

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bekkevold, Dorte; Jacobsen, Lene; Hansen, Jakob Hemmer

    2015-01-01

    Contemporary genetic diversity is the product of both historical and contemporary forces, such as climatic and geological processes affecting range distribution and continuously moulded by evolutionary forces selection, gene flow and genetic drift. Predatory freshwater fishes, such as Northern Pike...... structure from local to regional scales is relatively poorly described, in spite of its significance to developing conservation measures. We analysed microsatellite variation in a total of 1185 North European pike from 46 samples collected across both local and regional scales, as well as over time......, to address two overarching questions: Is pike population structure associated with local and/or regional connectivity patterns, and which factors likely have the main influence on the contemporary distribution of genetic diversity? To answer this, we combined estimators of population diversity and structure...

  10. Experimental determination with EPR-methods of dose loads on local population in inhabited localities adjacent to the tailing pond "Koshkar-ata" (Kazakhstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuterbekov, Kairat; Sadykov, Nurllah; Zhumadilov, Kassym; Nurgaliyeva, Rano; Kabyshev, Aset; Abseitov, Erbolat; Kurmanzhanov, Askar

    2017-11-01

    EPR study of TE from teeth donors in KOSHKAR-ATA region. During the first year we received22 tooth samples from local people in KOSHKAR-ATA region; the teeth were removed by dentists in accordance with their medical prescriptions. Obtained data showed that radiation signal in the analyzed samples corresponds to doses not exceeding 0.3 Gy; only one sample carriers the signal of (0.35±0.15)Gy.

  11. Low genetic diversity and local adaptive divergence of Dracaena cambodiana (Liliaceae) populations associated with historical population bottlenecks and natural selection: an endangered long-lived tree endemic to Hainan Island, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, D-J; Xie, L-S; Zhu, J-H; Zhang, Z-L

    2012-09-01

    Historical population bottlenecks and natural selection have important effects on the current genetic diversity and structure of long-lived trees. Dracaena cambodiana is an endangered, long-lived tree endemic to Hainan Island, China. Our field investigations showed that only 10 populations