WorldWideScience

Sample records for local costs climate

  1. Costs of climate impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, W O

    1980-03-01

    The surest prospect for future world climate patterns is that they will differ from present ones. What is uncertain is how much, and exactly in what way in different geographical regions. The anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ increase will probably exceed the unknown forcing functions of natural climate change within 30 to 60 years. It is not unlikely that by AD 2040 the world's climate, driven by the CO/sub 2/ increase, will enter a domain warmer than any within the past few million years. The costs of averting this climate change or of absorbing its impact are likely to be huge, even though today imponderable. Not least among these are intangible and unquantifiable costs associated with changes in human values and the quality of everyday life for future generations.

  2. Low-cost multi-vehicle air temperature measurements for heat load assessment in local-scale climate applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuvela-Aloise, Maja; Weyss, Gernot; Aloise, Giulliano; Mifka, Boris; Löffelmann, Philemon; Hollosi, Brigitta; Nemec, Johana; Vucetic, Visnja

    2014-05-01

    In the recent years there has been a strong interest in exploring the potential of low-cost measurement devices as alternative source of meteorological monitoring data, especially in the urban areas where high-density observations become crucial for appropriate heat load assessment. One of the simple, but efficient approaches for gathering large amount of spatial data is through mobile measurement campaigns in which the sensors are attached to driving vehicles. However, non-standardized data collecting procedure, instrument quality, their response-time and design, variable device ventilation and radiation protection influence the reliability of the gathered data. We investigate what accuracy can be expected from the data collected through low-cost mobile measurements and whether the achieved quality of the data is sufficient for validation of the state-of-the-art local-scale climate models. We tested 5 types of temperature sensors and data loggers: Maxim iButton, Lascar EL-USB-2-LCD+ and Onset HOBO UX100-003 as market available devices and self-designed solar powered Arduino-based data loggers combined with the AOSONG AM2315 and Sensirion SHT21 temperature and humidity sensors. The devices were calibrated and tested in stationary mode at the Austrian Weather Service showing accuracy between 0.1°C and 0.8°C, which was mostly within the device specification range. In mobile mode, the best response-time was found for self-designed device with Arduino-based data logger and Sensirion SHT21 sensor. However, the device lacks the mechanical robustness and should be further improved for broad-range applications. We organized 4 measurement tours: two taking place in urban environment (Vienna, Austria in July 2011 and July 2013) and two in countryside with complex terrain of Mid-Adriatic islands (Hvar and Korcula, Croatia in August 2013). Measurements were taken on clear-sky, dry and hot days. We combined multiple devices attached to bicycle and cars with different

  3. Beyond local climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; Lambin, Eric F.

    2014-01-01

    At the household level, nonfarm activities are thought to help rural poor households buffer against agricultural risks related to local climate variability by providing them with cash to buy food in the case of harvest shortfalls. Over the recent decades, households in rural Sub-Sahara have been...

  4. Vertical integration of local fuel producers into rural district heating systems – Climate impact and production costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimming, M.; Sundberg, C.; Nordberg, Å.; Hansson, P.-A.

    2015-01-01

    Farmers can use their own agricultural biomass residues for heat production in small-scale systems, enabling synergies between the district heating (DH) sector and agriculture. The barriers to entry into the Swedish heat market were extremely high as long as heat distribution were considered natural monopoly, but were recently lowered due to the introduction of a regulated third party access (TPA) system in the DH sector. This study assesses the potential impact on greenhouse gas emissions and cost-based heat price in the DH sector when farmers vertically integrate into the heat supply chain and introduce more local and agricultural crops and residues into the fuel mix. Four scenarios with various degree of farmer integration, were assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, and by analysis of the heat production costs. The results show that full integration of local farm and forest owners in the value chain can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lower production costs/heat price, if there is an incentive to utilise local and agricultural fuels. The results imply that farmer participation in the DH sector should be encouraged by e.g. EU rural development programmes. - Highlights: • Five DH production systems based on different fuels and ownership were analysed. • Lower GHG emissions were obtained when farmers integrate fully into the DH chain. • Lower heat price was obtained by full vertical integration of farmers. • Salix and straw-based production resulted in the lowest GHG and heat price

  5. Local government and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, H.; Menkveld, M.; Coenen, F.H.J.M.

    2000-01-01

    Local government in the Netherlands could play a greater role than they currently do in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the country. This fact formed the motivation for initiating the research project on Local Government and Climate Policy. Many local climate options are known in theory. Options for reduction that lie within the sphere of influence of Dutch local government are, for example, sustainable building or encouraging the utilisation of sustainable energy. But actual practice turns out to be rather refractory. If such options are to be implemented, then one has to overcome institutional barriers, such as the co-operation between different departments in the same local authority. The objective of this research is to improve the contribution that local government makes to climate policy

  6. Climate - saved locally

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    Since 1990, more than 350 towns and communities from six European contries have joined the ''Climate Groups of European towns with the indigenous peoples of the rainforest to support the Earth's atmosphere''. The given goals are the halving of CO 2 emissions by the year 2000, the reduction of greenhouse gases and stopping use of tropical wood. The text shows how far the communes have gone in their own obligations for the protection of the world climate in the areas of energy, transport and town development. The work and organisation of the Indian group- partners is also portrayed. (orig.) [de

  7. The Costs of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jason

    2018-03-01

    This research paper talks about the economic costs of climate change, as well as the costs involved in responding to climate change with alternative fuels. This paper seeks to show that climate change, although seemingly costly in the short run, will both save future generations trillions of dollars and serve as a good economic opportunity. Scientists have long argued that the fate of humanity depends on a shift towards renewable energy. However, this paper will make clear that there is also an economic struggle. By embracing alternative fuels, we will not only lessen the danger and the frequency of these natural disasters but also strengthen the world’s financial state. Although a common argument against responding to climate change is that it is too expensive to make the switch, this research shows that in the future, it will save millions of lives and trillions of dollars. The only question left for policymakers is whether they will grasp this energy source shift.

  8. Distribution costs -- the cost of local delivery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winger, N.; Zarnett, P.; Carr, J.

    2000-01-01

    Most of the power transmission system in the province of Ontario is owned and operated as a regulated monopoly by Ontario Hydro Services Company (OHSC). Local distribution systems deliver to end-users from bulk supply points within a service territory. OHSC distributes to approximately one million, mostly rural customers, while the approximately 250 municipal utilities together serve about two million, mostly urban customers. Under the Energy Competition Act of 1998 local distribution companies will face some new challenges, including unbundled billing systems, a broader range of distribution costs, increased costs, made up of corporate taxes or payments in lieu of taxes and added costs for regulatory affairs. The consultants provide a detailed discussion of the components of distribution costs, the three components of the typical budget process (capital expenditures, (CAPEX), operating and maintenance (O and M) and administration and corporate (GA and C), a summary of some typical distribution costs in Ontario, and the estimated impacts of the Energy Competition Act (ECA) compliance on charges and rates. Various mitigation strategies are also reviewed. Among these are joint ventures by local distribution companies to reduce ECA compliance costs, re-examination of controllable costs, temporary reduction of the allowable return on equity (ROE) by 50 per cent, and/or reducing the competitive transition charge (CTC). It is estimated that either one of these two reductions could eliminate the full amount of the five to seven per cent uplift in delivered energy service costs. The conclusion of the consultants is that local distribution delivery charges will make up a greater proportion of end-user cost in the future than it has in the past. An increase to customers of about five per cent is expected when the competitive electricity market opens and unbundled billing begins. The cost increase could be mitigated by a combination of actions that would be needed for about

  9. Approaches to local climate action in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y. D.

    2011-12-01

    Though climate change is a global problem, the impacts are felt on the local scale; it follows that the solutions must come at the local level. Fortunately, many cities and municipalities are implementing climate mitigation (or climate action) policies and programs. However, they face many procedural and institutional barriers to their efforts, such of lack of expertise or data, limited human and financial resources, and lack of community engagement (Krause 2011). To address the first obstacle, thirteen in-depth case studies were done of successful model practices ("best practices") of climate action programs carried out by various cities, counties, and organizations in Colorado, and one outside Colorado, and developed into "how-to guides" for other municipalities to use. Research was conducted by reading documents (e.g. annual reports, community guides, city websites), email correspondence with program managers and city officials, and via phone interviews. The information gathered was then compiled into a series of reports containing a narrative description of the initiative; an overview of the plan elements (target audience and goals); implementation strategies and any indicators of success to date (e.g. GHG emissions reductions, cost savings); and the adoption or approval process, as well as community engagement efforts and marketing or messaging strategies. The types of programs covered were energy action plans, energy efficiency programs, renewable energy programs, and transportation and land use programs. Between the thirteen case studies, there was a range of approaches to implementing local climate action programs, examined along two dimensions: focus on climate change (whether it was direct/explicit or indirect/implicit) and extent of government authority. This benchmarking exercise affirmed the conventional wisdom propounded by Pitt (2010), that peer pressure (that is, the presence of neighboring jurisdictions with climate initiatives), the level of

  10. Costs of global climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, F.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the cost implications of the air pollution abatement recommendations contained in a recently published IPSEP (International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths) study on the feasibility of the abatement of carbon dioxide emissions deemed significantly responsible for the greenhouse effect and its associated negative impacts on this planet's climatic equilibrium. The air pollution abatement strategies are to be enforced in five highly industrialized European countries - Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy and Holland. The study's overall results indicate the feasibility of 50% reductions in carbon dioxide emissions within the next 30 years even with a more than doubling of GNP's and a contemporaneous phase-out of nuclear power production, and all this taking place in a cost effective way and with increased employment. In addition, IPSEP's report states that the implementation of effective program management strategies would bolster Western Europe's competitiveness on a global scale

  11. Localized climate control in greenhouses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, P.S.; Sijs, J.; Fransman, J.E.

    2012-01-01

    Strategies for controlling the indoor climate in greenhouses are based on a few sensors and actuators in combination with an assumption that climate variables, such as temperature, are uniform throughout the greenhouse. While this is already an improper assumption for conventional greenhouses, it

  12. Climate impacts on the cost of solar energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flowers, Mallory E.; Smith, Matthew K.; Parsekian, Ara W.; Boyuk, Dmitriy S.; McGrath, Jenna K.; Yates, Luke

    2016-01-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) estimates are widely utilized by decision makers to predict the long-term cost and benefits of solar PV installations, but fail to consider local climate, which impacts PV panel lifetime and performance. Specific types of solar PV panels are known to respond to climate factors differently. Mono-, poly-, and amorphous-silicon (Si) PV technologies are known to exhibit varying degradation rates and instantaneous power losses as a function of operating temperature, humidity, thermal cycling, and panel soiling. We formulate an extended LCOE calculation, which considers PV module performance and lifespan as a function of local climate. The LCOE is then calculated for crystalline and amorphous Si PV technologies across several climates. Finally, we assess the impact of various policy incentives on reducing the firm's cost of solar deployment when controlling for climate. This assessment is the first to quantify tradeoffs between technologies, geographies, and policies in a unified manner. Results suggest crystalline Si solar panels as the most promising candidate for commercial-scale PV systems due to their low degradation rates compared to amorphous technologies. Across technologies, we note the strong ability of investment subsidies in removing uncertainty and reducing the LCOE, compared to production incentives. - Highlights: •We integrate local climate into the Levelized Cost of photovoltaic technology. •Climate dictates panel degradation rates and the impact of temperature on efficiency. •We compare LCOE under policy scenarios for three technologies in four U. S. states. •Degradation is highly variable, increasing costs by shortening panel life in many regions. •Incentives targeting investment are most effective at reducing solar deployment costs.

  13. Local governing of climate change in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berthou, Sara Kristine Gløjmar; Ebbesen, Betina Vind

    2016-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the ways in which Danish municipalities seek to mitigate climate change through a range of governance strategies. Through the analysis of ten municipal climate plans using the framework of Mitchell Dean, as well as extensive ethnographic fieldwork in two municipalities......, this paper explores how local climate change mitigation is shaped by particular rationalities and technologies of government, and thus seeks to illustrate how the strategies set out in the plans construe climate change mitigation from a certain perspective, thereby rendering some solutions more likely than...

  14. CLIMATE CHANGE – BETWEEN COSTS AND BENEFITS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARMEN VALENTINA RĂDULESCU

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change – between costs and benefits. At global and regional levels the effects of climate change start to show up. While some of the countries make efforts to alleviate these effects and to find solutions, others are facing economic or political restrains that prevent them in applying the principle of common responsibility. The complex social, economic, and environmental implications of climate change’s effects focused a growing part of research on the analysis of costs and benefits. Although controversial, one of the methods used – the cost-benefit analysis – revealed that in most of the cases the prevention costs are lower than the costs of inaction. Prevention measures bring benefits by anticipating the impact and minimizing the risks for ecosystems and economy. The paper presents in its first part the controversies regarding the cost-benefit analysis, and continues, in the second part, with estimations on costs and benefits of certain policy instruments that target emission reduction.

  15. Operating cost model for local service airlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J. L.; Andrastek, D. A.

    1976-01-01

    Several mathematical models now exist which determine the operating economics for a United States trunk airline. These models are valuable in assessing the impact of new aircraft into an airline's fleet. The use of a trunk airline cost model for the local service airline does not result in representative operating costs. A new model is presented which is representative of the operating conditions and resultant costs for the local service airline. The calculated annual direct and indirect operating costs for two multiequipment airlines are compared with their actual operating experience.

  16. High fitness costs of climate change-induced camouflage mismatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimova, Marketa; Mills, L Scott; Nowak, J Joshua

    2016-03-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has created myriad stressors that threaten to cause local extinctions if wild populations fail to adapt to novel conditions. We studied individual and population-level fitness costs of a climate change-induced stressor: camouflage mismatch in seasonally colour molting species confronting decreasing snow cover duration. Based on field measurements of radiocollared snowshoe hares, we found strong selection on coat colour molt phenology, such that animals mismatched with the colour of their background experienced weekly survival decreases up to 7%. In the absence of adaptive response, we show that these mortality costs would result in strong population-level declines by the end of the century. However, natural selection acting on wide individual variation in molt phenology might enable evolutionary adaptation to camouflage mismatch. We conclude that evolutionary rescue will be critical for hares and other colour molting species to keep up with climate change. © 2016 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

    2015-01-01

    Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change.

  18. Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

    2015-01-01

    Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change. PMID:26551357

  19. Enhancement of Local Climate Analysis Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsfall, F. M.; Timofeyeva, M. M.; Dutton, J.

    2012-12-01

    The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) will enhance its Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) to incorporate specific capabilities to meet the needs of various users including energy, health, and other communities. LCAT is an online interactive tool that provides quick and easy access to climate data and allows users to conduct analyses at the local level such as time series analysis, trend analysis, compositing, correlation and regression techniques, with others to be incorporated as needed. LCAT uses principles of Artificial Intelligence in connecting human and computer perceptions on application of data and scientific techniques in multiprocessing simultaneous users' tasks. Future development includes expanding the type of data currently imported by LCAT (historical data at stations and climate divisions) to gridded reanalysis and General Circulation Model (GCM) data, which are available on global grids and thus will allow for climate studies to be conducted at international locations. We will describe ongoing activities to incorporate NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS) reanalysis data (CFSR), NOAA model output data, including output from the National Multi Model Ensemble Prediction System (NMME) and longer term projection models, and plans to integrate LCAT into the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and its protocols for accessing model output and observational data to ensure there is no redundancy in development of tools that facilitate scientific advancements and use of climate model information in applications. Validation and inter-comparison of forecast models will be included as part of the enhancement to LCAT. To ensure sustained development, we will investigate options for open sourcing LCAT development, in particular, through the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).

  20. The Dutch Approach to Local Climate Action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schellekens, R.

    2008-01-01

    In the Netherlands we are working with municipalities on the subjects of RES and RUE for over 15 years now. Over the last 4 years we worked with 250 out of 430 municipalities on setting up and executing their local climate policies. For this there was a national climate covenant between the national government, the association of municipalities and the association of provinces. The municipalities and provinces were supported through a subsidy scheme and the help of SenterNovem. Products like the climate menu, the climate scan and an organisational assessment were developed to aid the municipalities in their process. Through involvement of different stake holders within the municipality or a region concerning the climate policy and the execution thereof, production of RES is stimulated and goals on energy saving are more likely to be reached. Through the involvement of stake holders and by making climate change an integral part of the municipal organisation an irreversible process is started. Thus economic competitiveness and innovations are stimulated. The municipality and the region will gain economic strength through this. Results in the Netherlands on a municipal level are inspiring. More and more municipalities are developing long-term strategies at the moment. Goals like energy neutrality, climate neutrality and CO 2 neutrality in a set year are usually the basis of these strategies. Through these strategies Dutch municipalities become increasingly less dependent on energy sources outside their boarders. On a European level the Dutch approach ties in with the Covenant of Mayors which is launched by the EU.(author)

  1. Cost-optimized climate stabilisation (OPTIKS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leimbach, Marian; Bauer, Nico; Baumstark, Lavinia; Edenhofer, Ottmar [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2009-11-15

    This study analyses the implications of suggestions for the design of post-2012 climate policy regimes on the basis of model simulations. The focus of the analysis, the determination of regional mitigation costs and the technological development in the energy sector, also considers the feedbacks of investment and trade decisions of the regions that are linked by different global markets for emission permits, goods and resources. The analysed policy regimes are primarily differentiated by their allocation of emission rights. Moreover, they represent alternative designs of an international cap and trade system that is geared to meet the 2 C climate target. The present study analyses ambitious climate protection scenarios that require drastic reduction policies (reductions of 60%-80% globally until 2050). Immediate and multilateral action is needed in such scenarios. Given the rather small variance of mitigation costs in major regions like UCA, Europe, MEA and China, a policy regime should be chosen that provides high incentives to join an international agreement for the remaining regions. From this perspective either the C and C scenario (incentive for Russia) is preferable or the multi-stage approach (incentive for Africa and India). (orig.)

  2. Climate change adaptation strategies by local farmers in Kilombero ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines current adaptation strategies developed by local farmers against climate change effects in Kilombero District. Research questions guided the study include; what are the past and current climatic stresses? What are local farmers' perception on climate change and response to the adverse climatic ...

  3. Evaluating economic costs and benefits of climate resilient livelihood strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A major challenge for international development is to assist the poorest regions to achieve development targets while taking climate change into account. Such ‘climate resilient development’ (CRD must identify and implement adaptation strategies for improving livelihoods while also being cost-effective. While the idea that climate resilience and development goals should be compatible is often discussed, empirical evaluations of the economic impacts of actual CRD investments are practically non-existent. This paper outlines a framework to evaluate economic returns to CRD and applies it in two adaptation strategies trialed in Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, eastern Indonesia. The evaluation framework is composed of three models: a household benefit cost model, a diffusion model, and a regional benefit cost model. The models draw upon the impact evaluation, technology diffusion, and risk assessment literatures, respectively. The analyzes are based on expert opinion and locally-derived information, and hence can be applied in data-poor situations typical of developing countries. Our results explore economic costs and benefits at the household and regional scale, and we identify key input variables that greatly influence the economic returns of the strategies. These variables should therefore be a focus of ongoing investment. We also discuss how the framework is more generally applicable, its limitations including challenges in accounting for less tangible social and ecosystem service benefits, potentially leading to the underestimation of impacts, and how the approach should be complemented by qualitative methods.

  4. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Downing, Tom; Venton, Courtenay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria; Butterfield, Ruth; Kaur, Nanki; Birch, Tom; Loga, Denise

    2011-11-15

    Changing climate will have adverse effects on food production, food distribution, infrastructure, land availability for agriculture, and livelihood assets and opportunities in rural and urban areas. Adapting food systems to both enhance food security for the poor and to prevent the future negative impacts of climate change will require attention to more than just agricultural production. Food security can only be ensured and enhanced through a range of interventions across different agricultural systems and along the associated value chains, from production to distribution and allocation. The current efforts to get agriculture into the global climate policy framework after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol emphasises mitigation. Adaptation is an equally important objective in a world that cannot avoid climate change any more because of already accumulated greenhouse gases. In developing countries, adaptation is the primary concern due to their vulnerability to climate change and high dependence on weather-dependent agricultural systems. A complete response to climate change that integrates agriculture should therefore pursue both agricultural mitigation and adaptation. In order to plan for adaptation effectively, policy makers need reliable information from developing countries on the nature of adaptation, its costs and how these are related to ongoing efforts to develop the agriculture sector and food systems of developing countries. This study set out to inform climate policy development by analysing agricultural adaptation in developing countries using a combination of desk studies and country case studies to provide a framework, areas to focus on when planning agricultural adaptation and the likely costs. It followed key steps for bringing together global and local perspectives for the benefit of both global stakeholders and developing countries.

  5. Implementation of local climate action plans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damsø, Tue Noa Jacques; Kjær, Tyge; Christensen, Thomas Budde

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to improve understanding of local climate action plans and their implementation and evaluation. It explores how goal definition and the choice of assessment metrics frame goal attainment and influence implementation behaviour. Using the Danish capital of Copenhagen...... a high overall implementation performance, both in terms of changes in energy supply and emission reductions, these metrics are only partially linked. It also shows that inconsistencies between the system scope of the base year emissions and goal attainment, due to the use of offsetting, may lead...

  6. low-cost apparatus from locally available materials for teaching

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    unesco

    twofold: i) to design and produce appropriate low cost apparatus from locally .... How are the low-cost and manufactured apparatus compared in terms of cost and efficiency? ... BASIC TOOLS FOR THE LOW COST APPARATUS PRODUCTION.

  7. Climate change and local pollution effects. An integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaheim, H.A.; Kristin, A.; Seip, H.M.

    1999-01-01

    Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO 2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed. 72 refs

  8. climate change adaptation strategies by local farmers in kilombero

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    climatic stresses? What are institutions and political structures influencing local farmer's adaptive capacity? ... ability of the systems to adjust to climate change and has three ..... seedlings, and use of improved seed varieties. Political structures ...

  9. Governing Carbon Mitigation and Climate Change within Local Councils: A Case Study of Adelaide, South Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather Zeppel

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available There is growing concern about climate change impacts on local government areas. In Australia, the federal carbon tax (from 1 July 2012 will also increase costs for local councils. This paper evaluates what carbon mitigation (i.e. energy, water, and waste management actions have been implemented by metropolitan Adelaide councils (n=14 and why (or why not. A survey of environmental officers profiled carbon mitigation actions, emissions auditing, and motives for emissions reduction by Adelaide councils. The main reasons for adopting carbon actions were a climate change plan, climate leadership, and cost savings. Internal council governance of climate change actions was also evaluated. A climate governance framework based on adaptive management, communication, and reflective practice (Nursey-Bray 2010 was applied to assess climate mitigation by Adelaide councils.

  10. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  11. "Climate Cost of Cultivation": A New Crop Index Method to Quantify Farmers' Cost of Climate Change Exemplified in Rural India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Jangle (Nihar); M. Mehra (Mamta); D.M. Dror (David)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe model the impact of agricultural droughts with a new multi-parameter index (using both climatic and non-climatic parameters) and propose a new risk transfer solution for crop insurance, called Climate Cost of Cultivation (CCC). We used 1979/80 to 2012/13 data relevant for wheat in

  12. Relational Climate and Health Care Costs: Evidence From Diabetes Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soley-Bori, Marina; Stefos, Theodore; Burgess, James F; Benzer, Justin K

    2018-01-01

    Quality of care worries and rising costs have resulted in a widespread interest in enhancing the efficiency of health care delivery. One area of increasing interest is in promoting teamwork as a way of coordinating efforts to reduce costs and improve quality, and identifying the characteristics of the work environment that support teamwork. Relational climate is a measure of the work environment that captures shared employee perceptions of teamwork, conflict resolution, and diversity acceptance. Previous research has found a positive association between relational climate and quality of care, yet its relationship with costs remains unexplored. We examined the influence of primary care relational climate on health care costs incurred by diabetic patients at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs between 2008 and 2012. We found that better relational climate is significantly related to lower costs. Clinics with the strongest relational climate saved $334 in outpatient costs per patient compared with facilities with the weakest score in 2010. The total outpatient cost saving if all clinics achieved the top 5% relational climate score was $20 million. Relational climate may contribute to lower costs by enhancing diabetic treatment work processes, especially in outpatient settings.

  13. A Meta-Analysis of Local Climate Change Adaptation Actions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Local governments are beginning to take steps to address the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and heat events. However, we do not have a clear understanding of what local governments are doing -- the extent to which they expect climate change to affect their...

  14. Climate analysis at local scale in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quenol, H.

    2013-01-01

    Issues related to climate change increasingly concern the functioning of local scale geo-systems. A global change will necessarily affect local climates. In this context, the potential impacts of climate change lead to numerous inter rogations concerning adaptation. Despite numerous studies on the impact of projected global warming on different regions global atmospheric models (GCM) are not adapted to local scales and, as a result, impacts at local scales are still approximate. Although real progress in meso-scale atmospheric modeling was realized over the past years, no operative model is in use yet to simulate climate at local scales (ten or so meters). (author)

  15. Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J.; Renteria, Willington

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a c...

  16. Uncovering Local Impacts – The Influence of Transnational Municipal Climate Networks on Urban Climate Governance

    OpenAIRE

    Busch, Henner; Bendlin, Lena; Fenton, Paul; Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, many cities have joined transnational municipal climate networks (TMCNs), which were set up in response to climate change. Despite the fact that some of these TMCNs have been active for more than two decades, there has been no systematic investigation of the networks’ impact on local climate governance. In this article we attempt to answer if and how local climate governance has been influenced by municipalities’ memberships in TMCNs. Our assessment is based on an online surv...

  17. Motivations for Local Climate Adaptation in Dutch Municipalities: Climate Change Impacts and the Role of Local-Level Government

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Maya Marieke

    2009-01-01

    The local government level is considered to be crucial in preparing society for climate change impact. Yet little is known about why local authorities do or do not take action to adapt their community for climate change impacts. In order to implement effective adaptation policy, the motivations for

  18. The Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative: Climate Resilient Local Governments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Local governments, the first responders to public health, safety and environmental hazards, must act now to lessen vulnerabilities to climate change. They must plan for and invest in "adapting" to inevitable impacts such as flood, fire, and draught that will occur notwithstanding best efforts to mitigate climate change. CCAP's Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative is developing a framework for informed decision making on climate adaptation. Looking ahead to projected climate impacts and 'back casting' can identify what is needed now to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build local resiliency to climate change. CCAP's partnership with King County (WA), Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami-Dade County (FL), Milwaukee, Nassau County (NY), Phoenix, San Francisco, and Toronto is advancing policy discussions to ensure that state and local governments consider climate change when making decisions about infrastructure, transportation, land use, and resource management. Through the Initiative, local leaders will incorporate climate change into daily urban management and planning activities, proactively engage city and county managers and the public in developing solutions, and build community resilience. One goal is to change both institutional and public attitudes and behaviors. Determining appropriate adaptation strategies for each jurisdiction requires Asking the Climate Question: "How does what we are doing increase our resilience to climate change?" Over the next three years, the Initiative will design and implement specific adaptation plans, policies and 'catalytic' projects, collect and disseminate "best practices," and participate in framing national climate policy discussions. In the coming years, policy-makers will have to consider climate change in major infrastructure development decisions. If they are to be successful and have the resources they need, national climate change policy and emerging legislation will have to support these communities. The Urban Leaders

  19. Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

    2018-01-01

    Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

  20. Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

    2018-02-01

    Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

  1. Low Cost Constant – Head Drip Irrigation Emitter for Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Low Cost Constant – Head Drip Irrigation Emitter for Climate Change Adaptation in Nigeria: Engineering Design and Calibration. ... The drip system comprises of abarrel, sub-main line, lateral lines, tubes and emitters, it can irrigate140 crop ...

  2. A Methodology for Constructing Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Climate Action in Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadine Ibrahim

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available As drivers of climate action, cities are taking measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, which if left unabated pose a challenge to meeting long-term climate targets. The economics of climate action needs to be at the forefront of climate dialogue to prioritize investments among competing mitigation measures. A marginal abatement cost (MAC curve is an effective visualization of climate action that initiates a technical and economic discussion of the cost-effectiveness and abatement potential of such actions among local leaders, policy makers, and climate experts. More commonly demonstrated for countries, MAC curves need to be developed for cities because of their heterogeneity, which vary in their urban activities, energy supply, infrastructure stock, and commuting patterns. The methodology for constructing bottom-up MAC curves for cities is presented for technologies that offer fuel switching and/or energy efficiencies, while considering technology lifetimes, city-specific electricity and fuel prices, and emission intensities. Resulting MAC curves are unique to every city, and chart the pathway towards low-carbon growth by prioritizing measures based on cost-effectiveness. A case study of Toronto’s climate targets demonstrates the prioritization of select technologies. Leveraging MAC curves to support climate programs enables cities to strategically invest in financing climate action and designing incentives.

  3. Reducing health care costs - potential and limitations of local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reducing health care costs - potential and limitations of local authority health services. ... both the quality and the cost-effectiveness of health care would be improved. ... LAs offer an appropriate structure for effective community control over the ...

  4. Local climate change policy in the United Kingdom and Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Bulkeley, Harriet; Kern, Kristine

    2004-01-01

    "For over a decade climate change has been considered one of the most significant political issues facing the international community. In order to address this challenge, attention needs to be focused not only at the international level of treaties and conventions, but also on how climate protection policy is taking shape at the local level. Germany and the UK have been leading countries for international action on climate change. However, the reductions in domestic emissions of greenhouse ga...

  5. The Economic Costs of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James

    2015-01-01

    by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are net benefits from selected pre-emptive actions...

  6. Local climate protection programmes in Australia and New Zealand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, Jens Villiam

    about climate change broadly in the involved councils/local communities. • The CCP programme gave councils a strong focus, which led to the formulation of a coherent program on climate change, and allowed them to take on a leadership role in the local community. The leadership role was important...... in aligning the agendas of different stakeholders, and in local efforts to achieve attitude- and culture changes towards a more environmentally sustainable local community. • The CCP programme created a network among participating councils for sharing experiences and motivating each other. It also provided...

  7. Local matching indicators for concave transport costs

    OpenAIRE

    Delon , Julie; Salomon , Julien; Sobolevskii , A.

    2010-01-01

    International audience; In this note, we introduce a class of indicators that enable to compute efficiently optimal transport plans associated to arbitrary distributions of $N$ demands and $N$ supplies in $\\mathbf{R}$ in the case where the cost function is concave. The computational cost of these indicators is small and independent of $N$. A hierarchical use of them enables to obtain an efficient algorithm.

  8. 22 CFR 226.1002 - Local cost financing. [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Local cost financing. [Reserved] 226.1002 Section 226.1002 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION OF ASSISTANCE AWARDS TO U.S. NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS USAID-Specific Requirements § 226.1002 Local cost financing...

  9. Global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Greenstone, M.

    2017-12-01

    Empirically-based and plausibly causal estimates of the damages of climate change are greatly needed to inform rapidly developing global and local climate policies. To accurately reflect the costs of climate change, it is essential to estimate how much populations will adapt to a changing climate, yet adaptation remains one of the least understood aspects of social responses to climate. In this paper, we develop and implement a novel methodology to estimate climate impacts on mortality rates. We assemble comprehensive sub-national panel data in 41 countries that account for 56% of the world's population, and combine them with high resolution daily climate data to flexibly estimate the causal effect of temperature on mortality. We find the impacts of temperature on mortality have a U-shaped response; both hot days and cold days cause excess mortality. However, this average response obscures substantial heterogeneity, as populations are differentially adapted to extreme temperatures. Our empirical model allows us to extrapolate response functions across the entire globe, as well as across time, using a range of economic, population, and climate change scenarios. We also develop a methodology to capture not only the benefits of adaptation, but also its costs. We combine these innovations to produce the first causal, micro-founded, global, empirically-derived climate damage function for human health. We project that by 2100, business-as-usual climate change is likely to incur mortality-only costs that amount to approximately 5% of global GDP for 5°C degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. On average across model runs, we estimate that the upper bound on adaptation costs amounts to 55% of the total damages.

  10. Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily S Hope

    Full Text Available Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009 fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI, and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs; these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980-2009 period under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

  11. Municipal Climate Governance and Formation of Local Transition places

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergård, Bent; Stauning, Inger; Holm, Jesper

    for the need of studies of local situated transition arenas and how they by integrating specific local conditions become sites of development of innovative practices. Jesper Holm, Inger Stauning and Jesper Holm, Department of Department of Environmental, Social and Spatial Change, Roskilde University (RUC......Theme: Sustainable spaces Municipal Climate Governance and Formation of Local Transition Places The paper examines how municipalities develop new local governance efforts for climate mitigation and analyses how these efforts contributes to the development of local transition places. It is based...... authorities and policy networks tend to show more willingness for performing experimentation in transition. • Reduction of CO2-emission and transformation of social-technical energy systems has a complexity and a dependency of local context (bio resources, companies, energy systems, technologies, build...

  12. Modeling the effects of local climate change on crop acreage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunok Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on agriculture depend on local conditions and crops grown. For instance, warmer winter temperatures in a given area would reduce chill hours, potentially cutting yields for some crops but extending the growing season for others. Using a century of climate data and six decades of acreage data, we established quantitative economic relationships between the evolution of local climate and acreage of 12 important crops in Yolo County. We then used the historical trend in climate change to project future crop acreages in the county. Only marginal changes in acreage in 2050 were projected for tree and vine crops there, in part because chill hours, although lower, remained above critical values. Walnuts were the most vulnerable tree crop, and the projections indicated some cultivars might be marginal in years with particularly warm winters. Processing tomato acreage might increase, due to a longer growing season, and also alfalfa acreage, if water availability and other factors remain constant.

  13. Frequency and Costs of Communication with Citizens in Local Government

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kim Normann; Medaglia, Rony; Zinner Henriksen, Helle

    2011-01-01

    This paper addresses the frequency and costs of local governmentcitizen communication in five channels (physical meetings, postal mails, phone calls, e-mail and online self service. Considered to be among the advanced countries with regards to supply of e-services, our analysis shows a surprisingly...... low use of transactions in the Danish local government. Also, our estimate is that email costs are higher than phone call costs and that there is substantial room for advancing our knowledge of the costs of e-services....

  14. Cost Analysis of Water Transport for Climate Change Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szaleniec, V.; Buytaert, W.

    2012-04-01

    It is expected that climate change will have a strong impact on water resources worldwide. Many studies exist that couple the output of global climate models with hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on physical water availability. However, the water resources topology of many regions and especially that of cities can be very complex. Changes in physical water availability do therefore not translate easily into impacts on water resources for cities. This is especially the case for cities with a complex water supply topology, for instance because of geographical barriers, strong gradients in precipitation patterns, or competing water uses. In this study we explore the use of cost maps to enable the inclusion of water supply topologies in climate change impact studies. We use the city of Lima as a case study. Lima is the second largest desert city in the world. Although Peru as a whole has no water shortage, extreme gradients exist. Most of the economic activities including the city of Lima are located in the coastal desert. This region is geographically disconnected from the wet Amazon basin because of the Andes mountain range. Hence, water supply is precarious, provided by a complex combination of high mountain ecosystems including wetlands and glaciers, as well as groundwater aquifers depending on recharge from the mountains. We investigate the feasibility and costs of different water abstraction scenarios and the impact of climate change using cost functions for different resources. The option of building inter basins tunnels across the Andes is compared to the costs of desalinating seawater from the Pacific Ocean under different climate change scenarios and population growth scenarios. This approach yields recommendations for the most cost-effective options for the future.

  15. Energy and cost associated with ventilating office buildings in a tropical climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rim, Donghyun; Schiavon, Stefano; Nazaroff, William W

    2015-01-01

    Providing sufficient amounts of outdoor air to occupants is a critical building function for supporting occupant health, well-being and productivity. In tropical climates, high ventilation rates require substantial amounts of energy to cool and dehumidify supply air. This study evaluates the energy consumption and associated cost for thermally conditioning outdoor air provided for building ventilation in tropical climates, considering Singapore as an example locale. We investigated the influence on energy consumption and cost of the following factors: outdoor air temperature and humidity, ventilation rate (L/s per person), indoor air temperature and humidity, air conditioning system coefficient of performance (COP), and cost of electricity. Results show that dehumidification of outdoor air accounts for more than 80% of the energy needed for building ventilation in Singapore's tropical climate. Improved system performance and/or a small increase in the indoor temperature set point would permit relatively large ventilation rates (such as 25 L/s per person) at modest or no cost increment. Overall, even in a thermally demanding tropical climate, the energy cost associated with increasing ventilation rate up to 25 L/s per person is less than 1% of the wages of an office worker in an advanced economy like Singapore's. This result implies that the benefits of increasing outdoor air ventilation rate up to 25 L/s per person--which is suggested to provide for productivity increases, lower sick building syndrome symptom prevalence, and reduced sick leave--can be much larger than the incremental cost of ventilation.

  16. Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J; Renteria, Willington

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a case study as socioeconomic data are readily available. To incorporate the spatial and temporal pattern of the climatic variables we use reanalysis datasets and empirical orthogonal functions. Our assessment strategy relies on the statistical behavior of climatic and socioeconomic indicators for the weighting and aggregation mechanism into a composite vulnerability indicator. Rather than assuming equal contribution to the formation of the composite indicator, we assume that the weights of the indicators vary inversely as the variance over the cantons (administrative division of Ecuador). This approach captures the multi-dimensionality of vulnerability in a comprehensive form. We find that the least vulnerable cantons concentrate around Ecuador's largest cities (e.g. Quito and Guayaquil); however, approximately 20 % of the national population lives in other cantons that are categorized as highly and very highly vulnerable to climate change. Results also show that the main determinants of high vulnerability are the lack of land tenure in agricultural areas and the nonexistence of government-funded programs directed to environmental and climate change management.

  17. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

    2016-04-21

    Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

  18. Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

    2016-12-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal

  19. A Meta-Analysis of Local Climate Change Adaptation Actions ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Local governments are beginning to take steps to address the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and heat events. However, we do not have a clear understanding of what local governments are doing -- the extent to which they expect climate change to affect their community, the types of actions they have in place to address climate change, and the resources at their disposal for implementation. Several studies have been conducted by academics, non-governmental organizations, and public agencies to assess the status of local climate change adaptation. This project collates the findings from dozens of such studies to conduct a meta-analysis of local climate change adaptation actions. The studies will be characterized along several dimensions, including (a) methods used, (b) timing and geographic scope, (c) topics covered, (d) types of adaptation actions identified, (e) implementation status, and (f) public engagement and environmental justice dimensions considered. The poster presents the project's rationale and approach and some illustrative findings from early analyses. [Note: The document being reviewed is an abstract in which a poster is being proposed. The poster will enter clearance if the abstract is accepted] The purpose of this poster is to present the research framework and approaches I am developing for my ORISE postdoctoral project, and to get feedback on early analyses.

  20. Does a renewable fuel standard for biofuels reduce climate costs?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greaker, Mads; Hoel, Michael; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2012-07-01

    Recent contributions have questioned whether biofuels policies actually lead to emissions reductions, and thus lower climate costs. In this paper we make two contributions to the literature. First, we study the market effects of a renewable fuel standard. Opposed to most previous studies we model the supply of fossil fuels taking into account that fossil fuels is a non-renewable resource. Second, we model emissions from land use change explicitly when we evaluate the climate effects of the renewable fuel standard. We find that extraction of fossil fuels most likely will decline initially as a consequence of the standard. Thus, if emissions from biofuels are sufficiently low, the standard will have beneficial climate effects. Furthermore, we find that the standard tends to reduce total fuel (i.e., oil plus biofuels) consumption initially. Hence, even if emissions from biofuels are substantial, climate costs may be reduced. Finally, if only a subset of countries introduce a renewable fuel standard, there will be carbon leakage to the rest of the world. However, climate costs may decline as global extraction of fossil fuels is postponed.(Author)

  1. The cost of making compensation payments to local forest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Comparing our estimated total cost to the current budget of the REDD+ project, we ..... ent using local market prices to calculate the income derived from each crop. We classed ... transport, accommodation and expenses of people in charge of.

  2. Costs of climate change impacts on output of cassava among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The result of the cost and returns analysis on per state basis indicated that farmers in Enugu ... while their counterparts in Abia State incurred the loss as a result of climate change. Farmers in Imo State, however, posted the highest net profit.

  3. Think globally, act locally? Local climate change and energy policies in Sweden and the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collier, U.; Loefstedt, R.E.

    1997-01-01

    While climate change is obviously a global environmental problem, there is nevertheless potential for policy initiatives at the local level. Although the competences of local authorities vary between countries, they all have some responsibilities in the crucial areas of energy and transport policy. This paper examines local competences in Sweden and the UK and looks at the responses to the climate change issue by six local authorities, focussing on energy related developments. The points of departure are very different in the two countries. Swedish local authorities are much more independent than UK ones, especially through the ownership of local energy companies. Yet, UK local authorities are relatively active in the climate change domain, at least in terms of drawing up response strategies, which they see as an opportunity for reasserting their role, after a long period of erosion of their powers. Furthermore, there is more scope for action in the UK, as in Sweden many potential measures, especially in the energy efficiency field, have already been taken. However, in both countries climate change is only a relatively marginal area of local environmental policy making and the political will, as well as the financial resources, for more radical measures are often absent. (Author)

  4. Barriers in Local Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Nepal

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dhungana, N.; Chiranjeewee, Khadka; Bhatta, B. P.; Regmi, S.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 62, jun (2017), s. 20-24 ISSN 2224-3240 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Local Adaptation Plan for Action Framework * Barriers * Climate Change Adaptation * Village Development Committees Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) http://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JLPG/article/view/37535

  5. Nuclear power and climate change: The cost of adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pailiere, H.

    2012-01-01

    For more than a decade, the international community has been voicing concern over growing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which are believed to be the largest contributor to global warming and more generally to climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an increase in the frequency of heat waves and droughts is expected in many parts of the world, as is that of storms, flooding and cold episodes. The potential consequences of this projected climate change have prompted calls to reduce the use of fossil fuels and to promote low-carbon energy sources such as renewables and nuclear power. At the same time, there has also been growing concern that without a rapid decrease in GHG emissions, climate change could occur at such a scale that it will have a significant impact on major economic sectors including the power generation sector. Although the expanded use of renewables will reduce emissions from the power sector, it will also increase the dependence of distribution systems and electricity production on climatic conditions. Thermal power plants, such as fossil fuel and nuclear, will be affected primarily by the diminishing availability of water and the increasing likelihood of heat waves, which will have an impact on the cooling capabilities and power output of plants. In its 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook, the IEA underlined the need to address an additional challenge, the water-energy nexus: water needs for energy production are set to grow at twice the rate of energy demands over the next decades. It has thus become clear that the availability of water for cooling will be an important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects. Given the long operating life of nuclear reactors (60 years for Generation III designs), the possible impact of climate change on the operation and safety of nuclear power plants needs to be addressed at the design and siting stages in order to limit costly adaptation measures

  6. Climate change at the coast: from global to local

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watkinson, A.R.

    2009-01-01

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  7. Cost-effective climate policy in a small country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagem, C.

    1994-01-01

    Unilateral action to curb CO 2 emissions in a small country or a group of countries has only a limited effect on global CO 2 emissions. However, it could be a first step toward a broader climate treaty. So far, unilateral commitments have been aimed at reducing national consumption of fossil fuels. A country that produces and consumes fossil fuels can also infiuence the global CO 2 emissions by reducing its production. The estimated cost of reducing national CO 2 emissions in Norway, through a reduction infossil fuel consumption, is presented in a report from the Environmental Tax Committee (1992). In this paper, that cost is compared with an estimated cost of reducing fossil fuel production. The calculation reveals that it could be less costly to reduce the production than the consumption, given that the effect on global CO 2 emissions is identical. 23 refs., 4 tabs

  8. Local authorities in the context of energy and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comodi, Gabriele; Cioccolanti, Luca; Polonara, Fabio; Brandoni, Caterina

    2012-01-01

    Several measures to boost the energy system towards a low-carbon future can be planned and implemented by local authorities, such as energy-saving initiatives in public buildings and lighting, information campaigns, and renewable energy pilot projects. This work analyzes the public administration's role in energy and climate policies by assessing carbon-lowering measures for properties and services managed directly by local governments in central Italy. Both short- and long-term schemes were considered in the analysis of local authority energy strategies. The MARKAL-TIMES energy model was applied to long-term energy planning to assess the effect of low-carbon initiatives on public-sector energy consumption up to 2030. Two energy scenarios were built, i.e. a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario based on current or soon-to-be-adopted national policies, and an Exemplary Public Scenario (EPS) including some further virtuous local policies suggested by local authorities. Our results show that a 20% primary energy reduction can be achieved with respect to the baseline year by means of short-term energy policies (5-year time span), while a primary energy saving of about 30% can be reached with longer-term energy policies (25-year time span), even after taking the increase in energy demand into account. This work goes to show the part that local governments can play in energy policy and their contribution to the achievement of climate goals. - Highlights: ► Assessment of Local Administration (LA) role in energy and climate policy. ► Analysis of both short-term and long-term carbon lowering measures. ► Use of MARKAL-TIMES model generator for long-term energy analysis. ► 20% primary energy reduction can be reached with short-term energy policies. ► 30% primary energy reduction can be reached with longer-term energy policies.

  9. Planning and costing agricultural adaptation to climate change in the pastoral livestock system of Tanzania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tumbo, S.; Mutabazi, K.; Kimambo, A.; Rwehumbiza, F.

    2011-08-15

    There is limited research on bottom-up adaptation economics in general – and climate change adaptation in animal agriculture in particular – to guide adaptation actions. This study therefore tries to address costing and planning of adaptation to climate change in animal agriculture in Tanzania. The study adopted a bottom-up costing of adaptation actions that were identified using a case study approach. A questionnaire interview involving a sample of pastoralists and agro-pastoralist was conducted to identify and quantify impacts due to climate change, and currently-used adaptation actions and costs, in some selected areas in Same, Chamwino and Mvomero districts. This was followed by key informants' interviews at district and national level to get insights on developmental and climate change policies and actions, and their costs. A mini-workshop was later conducted to establish priority adaptation actions and their costs. The workshop involved local-, district- and national-level stakeholders. A country feedback workshop was then held to present initial findings and get additional inputs from experts and other stakeholders. The case study findings showed that a changing climate has resulted in environmental shocks and extreme events such as drought, excessive rains, floods and high temperatures, which have caused inadequate supply of water and pasture, increases in disease incidences, and death of animals. It is probable that in the future such events are likely to have even more serious repercussions and therefore there is a compelling need to plan mitigation measures. Through this study, various adaptation actions envisioned to be capable of fostering resilience have been identified and categorised as addressing three levels: development deficit, climate variability, or climate change-related extremes and shocks. Current annual adaptation costs were estimated at 226.7 M US$ and up to 3,987.5 M US$ by 2030; some of these costs are already being incurred by

  10. Planning and costing agricultural adaptation to climate change in the pastoral livestock system of Tanzania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tumbo, S; Mutabazi, K; Kimambo, A; Rwehumbiza, F

    2011-08-15

    There is limited research on bottom-up adaptation economics in general – and climate change adaptation in animal agriculture in particular – to guide adaptation actions. This study therefore tries to address costing and planning of adaptation to climate change in animal agriculture in Tanzania. The study adopted a bottom-up costing of adaptation actions that were identified using a case study approach. A questionnaire interview involving a sample of pastoralists and agro-pastoralist was conducted to identify and quantify impacts due to climate change, and currently-used adaptation actions and costs, in some selected areas in Same, Chamwino and Mvomero districts. This was followed by key informants' interviews at district and national level to get insights on developmental and climate change policies and actions, and their costs. A mini-workshop was later conducted to establish priority adaptation actions and their costs. The workshop involved local-, district- and national-level stakeholders. A country feedback workshop was then held to present initial findings and get additional inputs from experts and other stakeholders. The case study findings showed that a changing climate has resulted in environmental shocks and extreme events such as drought, excessive rains, floods and high temperatures, which have caused inadequate supply of water and pasture, increases in disease incidences, and death of animals. It is probable that in the future such events are likely to have even more serious repercussions and therefore there is a compelling need to plan mitigation measures. Through this study, various adaptation actions envisioned to be capable of fostering resilience have been identified and categorised as addressing three levels: development deficit, climate variability, or climate change-related extremes and shocks. Current annual adaptation costs were estimated at 226.7 M US$ and up to 3,987.5 M US$ by 2030; some of these costs are already being incurred by

  11. Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R; Todd, Benjamin J; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David J

    2013-01-01

    The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations. (letter)

  12. Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Alexander; Todd, Benjamin J.; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R.

    2013-06-01

    The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations.

  13. What are the costs of Scotland's climate and renewable policies?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anandarajah, Gabrial; McDowall, Will

    2012-01-01

    The UK government has established ambitious policies to address climate change and promote renewable energy, and has set targets both for reducing carbon emissions and for deploying renewables. Scotland, a constituent nation of the UK, has also set its own targets for climate change mitigation and renewable electricity. This paper analyses the energy, economic and environmental implications of carbon and renewable electricity targets in Scotland and the UK using a newly developed two-region UK MARKAL energy system model, where Scotland (SCT) and rest of the UK (RUK) are the two regions. The paper shows that meeting Scotland's carbon targets does not require additional decarbonisation effort if the UK meets its own targets at least cost; and that Scotland's renewable energy ambitions do imply additional costs above the least cost path to the meeting the UK's obligations under the EU renewable energy directive. Meeting Scottish renewable electricity targets diverts investment and deployment in renewables from rest of the UK to Scotland. In addition to increased energy system cost, Scottish renewable electricity targets may also require early investment in new electricity transmission capacity between Scotland and rest of the UK. - Highlights: ► Scottish climate policy is less stringent than UK policy. ► Scottish targets would complement UK targets if UK policies fail to meet UK targets. ► The possible conclusion here is that Scottish carbon targets are unnecessary. ► Scottish renewable policy is more stringent than UK policy. ► As expected, this increased stringency leads to additional costs.

  14. Strong contributions of local background climate to urban heat islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Smith, Ronald B.; Oleson, Keith

    2014-07-01

    The urban heat island (UHI), a common phenomenon in which surface temperatures are higher in urban areas than in surrounding rural areas, represents one of the most significant human-induced changes to Earth's surface climate. Even though they are localized hotspots in the landscape, UHIs have a profound impact on the lives of urban residents, who comprise more than half of the world's population. A barrier to UHI mitigation is the lack of quantitative attribution of the various contributions to UHI intensity (expressed as the temperature difference between urban and rural areas, ΔT). A common perception is that reduction in evaporative cooling in urban land is the dominant driver of ΔT (ref. 5). Here we use a climate model to show that, for cities across North America, geographic variations in daytime ΔT are largely explained by variations in the efficiency with which urban and rural areas convect heat to the lower atmosphere. If urban areas are aerodynamically smoother than surrounding rural areas, urban heat dissipation is relatively less efficient and urban warming occurs (and vice versa). This convection effect depends on the local background climate, increasing daytime ΔT by 3.0 +/- 0.3 kelvin (mean and standard error) in humid climates but decreasing ΔT by 1.5 +/- 0.2 kelvin in dry climates. In the humid eastern United States, there is evidence of higher ΔT in drier years. These relationships imply that UHIs will exacerbate heatwave stress on human health in wet climates where high temperature effects are already compounded by high air humidity and in drier years when positive temperature anomalies may be reinforced by a precipitation-temperature feedback. Our results support albedo management as a viable means of reducing ΔT on large scales.

  15. The time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallegatte, Stephane

    2005-04-01

    This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modelling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a 70-year characteristic time, which is long when compared to the system's other time-scales, and it cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change; (ii) mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy is significant only after a 20-year delay and really efficient after a one-century delay; (iii) the IPCC methodology, that neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. Usefully, this metric for climate change damages is particularly independent of the baseline scenario. (orig.)

  16. The time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallegatte, Stephane [CIRED - CNRM, Nogent-sur-Marne (France)

    2005-04-01

    This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modelling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a 70-year characteristic time, which is long when compared to the system's other time-scales, and it cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change; (ii) mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy is significant only after a 20-year delay and really efficient after a one-century delay; (iii) the IPCC methodology, that neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. Usefully, this metric for climate change damages is particularly independent of the baseline scenario. (orig.)

  17. Value-based benefit-cost of local DSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stein, V.

    1995-01-01

    Value-based benefits and costs of demand-side management (DSM) were discussed in the context of local electricity resource planning in downtown Toronto. The analysis considered the effects on local customer interruption as a result of DSM, and the deferment in need for local transmission and distribution upgrades. The life cycle and cash flow benefits and costs of DSM were discussed from the perspectives of the electric utility, the DSM-participating and non-participating customers, and society as a whole. Cashflow and lifecycle analyses results were reconciled. The Toronto Integrated Electrical Service (TIES) study, the basis for this paper, was described. Two main conclusions were reached, i.e. since the savings in the generationg system as a whole were far greater than the local savings,the value of a specific DSM program would be similar across a utility's service area, and (2) while cashflow analysis illustrated the short and medium term benefits and costs in a way most people intuitively understand, in effect,the lifecycle-cost estimates produce a clearer indicator of long-run economics

  18. The cost of making compensation payments to local forest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    losses using first-hand project cost data from different conserva- tion projects in .... fund local development projects which are expected to com- pensate and help .... ships or values. .... 23% after). The difference between the affected and unaffected groups .... project's investment in agricultural innovation to improve irrigated.

  19. Climate Local Information over the Mediterranean to Respond User Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruti, P.

    2012-12-01

    CLIM-RUN aims at developing a protocol for applying new methodologies and improved modeling and downscaling tools for the provision of adequate climate information at regional to local scale that is relevant to and usable by different sectors of society (policymakers, industry, cities, etc.). Differently from current approaches, CLIM-RUN will develop a bottom-up protocol directly involving stakeholders early in the process with the aim of identifying well defined needs at the regional to local scale. The improved modeling and downscaling tools will then be used to optimally respond to these specific needs. The protocol is assessed by application to relevant case studies involving interdependent sectors, primarily tourism and energy, and natural hazards (wild fires) for representative target areas (mountainous regions, coastal areas, islands). The region of interest for the project is the Greater Mediterranean area, which is particularly important for two reasons. First, the Mediterranean is a recognized climate change hot-spot, i.e. a region particularly sensitive and vulnerable to global warming. Second, while a number of countries in Central and Northern Europe have already in place well developed climate service networks (e.g. the United Kingdom and Germany), no such network is available in the Mediterranean. CLIM-RUN is thus also intended to provide the seed for the formation of a Mediterranean basin-side climate service network which would eventually converge into a pan-European network. The general time horizon of interest for the project is the future period 2010-2050, a time horizon that encompasses the contributions of both inter-decadal variability and greenhouse-forced climate change. In particular, this time horizon places CLIM-RUN within the context of a new emerging area of research, that of decadal prediction, which will provide a strong potential for novel research.

  20. Chapter 4. Economic Considerations: Cost-Effective and Efficient Climate Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maximilian Auffhammer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this chapter we discuss the economics of climate change. We begin with a discussion of economic considerations that are important to take into account when designing and evaluating climate policy, including cost effectiveness and efficiency. We then discuss specific policies at the state, national, and international level in light of these economic considerations.  We have several recommendations for the path forward for climate policy. First, the goal of climate policy should be to reduce the damages caused by greenhouse gases. In addition to mitigation policy to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, one can also reduce the damages causes by greenhouse gases by adaptation measures that reduce our vulnerability to climate change impacts.  Second, policy-makers should use incentive- (or market- based instruments as opposed to command and control policies (including quantity-based mandates whenever possible. Whenever unpriced emissions are the sole market failure, incentive-based instruments such as a carbon tax or cap and trade program are more likely to achieve the social optimum and maximize social net benefits [1, 2]. Lin and Prince [3] calculate that the optimal gasoline tax for the state of California is $1.37 per gallon.  Our third recommendation is to address the risk of emissions leakage, which arises when only one jurisdiction (e.g., California imposes climate policy, but not the entire world. One way to reduce emissions leakage is to use the strategic distribution of emissions allowances to local producers. This method, known as “output-based allocation” or benchmarking, effectively subsidizes local producers and at least partially offsets the increase in their costs caused by an emissions cap [4]. Importantly, only local production is eligible for an allocation of valuable allowances, providing a counterweight to the incentive for emission leakage. Our fourth recommendation is that if they are used instead

  1. A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leary, N.A.

    1999-01-01

    The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper. 11 refs

  2. Local health care expenditure plans and their opportunity costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsberg Schaffer, Sarah; Sussex, Jon; Devlin, Nancy; Walker, Andrew

    2015-09-01

    In the UK, approval decisions by Health Technology Assessment bodies are made using a cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold, the value of which is based on little empirical evidence. We test the feasibility of estimating the "true" value of the threshold in NHS Scotland using information on marginal services (those planned to receive significant (dis)investment). We also explore how the NHS makes spending decisions and the role of cost per QALY evidence in this process. We identify marginal services using NHS Board-level responses to the 2012/13 Budget Scrutiny issued by the Scottish Government, supplemented with information on prioritisation processes derived from interviews with Finance Directors. We search the literature for cost-effectiveness evidence relating to marginal services. The cost-effectiveness estimates of marginal services vary hugely and thus it was not possible to obtain a reliable estimate of the threshold. This is unsurprising given the finding that cost-effectiveness evidence is rarely used to justify expenditure plans, which are driven by a range of other factors. Our results highlight the differences in objectives between HTA bodies and local health service decision makers. We also demonstrate that, even if it were desirable, the use of cost-effectiveness evidence at local level would be highly challenging without extensive investment in health economics resources. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Impact assessment and coastal climate change adaptation in a local transdisciplinary perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, N. H.; Knudsen, Per

    , private and public institutions, and the local communities provides: understanding of the immediate and potential future challenges; appreciation of different stakeholder motives, business agendas, legislative constraints etc., and common focus on how to cost-efficiently adapt to and manage impacts......From an applied point of view, the authors present and discuss inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to assess and deal with natural coastal hazards and climate change impacts. The construction of a shared working platform for knowledge integration across levels of governance and between research...... of climate change. The platform is dynamically updated with additional data and knowledge, e.g. from climate change evidence, or, by provision of updated regional models of future sea level rise. In order to integrate natural hazards and impact development over time, models on hydrology, geology...

  4. Thermo-climatic cost of the domestic consumption products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szargut, Jan; Stanek, Wojciech [Institute of Thermal Technology, Silesian University of Technology, Konarskiego 22, 44-100 Gliwice (Poland)

    2010-02-15

    The thermo-climatic cost (TCC) expresses the cumulative emission of CO{sub 2} burdening all the steps of production processes connected with the fabrication of particular consumption products. The TCC of the considered product results from the consumption of semi-finished products and energy carriers. The TCC of hydrocarbon fuels contains three components: the immediate emission of CO{sub 2} resulting from the combustion of carbon, the TCC of delivery and processing and the TCC resulting from import of fuels. The TCC-component connected with import results from the TCC of the domestic products exported in order to gain the financial means for import. The values of the TCC can be used for the minimization of climatic damages by the selection of the production technology or the design and operation parameters of new processes. (author)

  5. The efficiency cost of protective measures in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Böhringer, Christoph; Garcia-Muros, Xaquin; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Arto, Iñaki

    2017-01-01

    Despite recent achievements towards a global climate agreement, climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remains quite heterogeneous across countries. Energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries in industrialized countries are concerned on stringent domestic emission pricing that puts them at a competitive disadvantage against producers of similar goods in other countries with more lenient emission regulation. This paper focuses on climate policy design in the United States of America (US) and compares the economic implications of four alternative protective measures for US EITE industries: (i) output-based rebates, (ii) exemptions from emission pricing, (iii) energy intensity standards, and (iv) carbon intensity standards. Using a large-scale computable general equilibrium model we quantify how these protective measures affect competitiveness of US EITE industries. We find that protective measures can improve common trade-related competitiveness indicators such as revealed comparative advantage or relative world trade shares but at the same time may lead to a decline in the output value for EITE industries because of negative income effects. The economy-wide cost of emission abatement under protective measures increase as compared to uniform emission pricing stand-alone such that the gains of protective measures for EITE exports may be more than compensated through losses in domestic EITE demand. - Highlights: • We assess impacts for US emission-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries. • EITE impacts are quantified via competitiveness metrics and production output. • Protective measures reduce adverse competitiveness impacts but can depress output. • Output losses are due to negative income effects that reduce domestic EITE demand. • Protective measures run the risk of making US climate policy much more costly.

  6. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Downing, Tom; Venton, Courtenay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria; Butterfield, Ruth; Kaur, Nanki; Birch, Tom; Loga, Denise

    2011-11-15

    Changing climate will have adverse effects on food production, food distribution, infrastructure, land availability for agriculture, and livelihood assets and opportunities in rural and urban areas. Adapting food systems to both enhance food security for the poor and to prevent the future negative impacts of climate change will require attention to more than just agricultural production. Food security can only be ensured and enhanced through a range of interventions across different agricultural systems and along the associated value chains, from production to distribution and allocation. The current efforts to get agriculture into the global climate policy framework after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol emphasises mitigation. Adaptation is an equally important objective in a world that cannot avoid climate change any more because of already accumulated greenhouse gases. In developing countries, adaptation is the primary concern due to their vulnerability to climate change and high dependence on weather-dependent agricultural systems. A complete response to climate change that integrates agriculture should therefore pursue both agricultural mitigation and adaptation. In order to plan for adaptation effectively, policy makers need reliable information from developing countries on the nature of adaptation, its costs and how these are related to ongoing efforts to develop the agriculture sector and food systems of developing countries. This study set out to inform climate policy development by analysing agricultural adaptation in developing countries using a combination of desk studies and country case studies to provide a framework, areas to focus on when planning agricultural adaptation and the likely costs. It followed key steps for bringing together global and local perspectives for the benefit of both global stakeholders and developing countries.

  7. Costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom [Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (United Kingdom); Dysznski, Jillian [Stockholm Environment Institute (Sweden); Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtenay Cabot

    2011-11-15

    Climate change poses a major challenge to agriculture. Rising temperatures will change crop growing seasons. And changing rainfall patterns will affect yield potentials. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has left the agricultural sector in many developing countries ill-prepared for the changes ahead. Policymakers and researchers alike acknowledge the need for adaptation within agriculture. But what action should be taken? And, more importantly, how much will it cost? Five case studies — of specific agricultural systems in Bangladesh, Malawi, Nepal, Rwanda and Tanzania — provide fresh insights into the options available and likely costs, which are at least US$20,000 for an integrated cropping system in a village, and may well be more than US$100 million for a whole sector such as livestock in a country.

  8. Cost-effective unilateral climate policy design: Size Matters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Fischer, Carolyn; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2011-07-01

    Given the bleak prospects for a global agreement on mitigating climate change, pressure for unilateral abatement is increasing. A major challenge is emissions leakage. Border carbon adjustments and output-based allocation of emissions allowances can increase effectiveness of unilateral action but introduce distortions of their own. We assess antileakage measures as a function of abatement coalition size. We first develop a partial equilibrium analytical framework to see how these instruments affect emissions within and outside the coalition. We then employ a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use to assess the strategies as the coalition grows. We find that full border adjustments rank first in global cost-effectiveness, followed by import tariffs and output-based rebates. The differences across measures and their overall appeal decline as the abatement coalition grows. In terms of cost, the coalition countries prefer border carbon adjustments; countries outside the coalition prefer output-based rebates.(Author)

  9. Preoperative localization of parathyroid adenomas is cost-effective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, M.A.; Mack, E.; Rowe, B.; Perlman, S.B.

    1986-01-01

    The preoperative localization of parathyroid adenomas is cost-effective because it reduces anesthesia and surgery times. The technique is sensitive in single and double adenomas (90%), and some surgeons have modified their operative technique because of its introduction. The practical experience of one surgeon is presented, with similar patient subsets (n = 22) compared before and after use of a localization scan was instituted. The average operative time fell by 94%, from 2 hours 35 minutes to 1 hour 19 minutes. The reduction in operative time was possible because the surgeon did not seek to identify the remaining normal parathyroids when the scanned lesion was excised and proved to be the adenoma

  10. Equitable cost-benefit analysis of climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tol, R.S.J. [Centre for Marine and Climate Studies, Hamburg University, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg (Germany)

    2001-01-01

    The literature of welfare-maximising greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies pays remarkably little attention to equity. This paper introduces three ways to consider efficiency and equity simultaneously. The first method, inspired by Kant and Rawls, maximises net present welfare, without international cooperation, as if all regions share the fate of the region affected worst by climate change. Optimal emission abatement varies greatly depending on the spatial and temporal resolution, that is, the grid at which 'maximum impact' is defined. The second method is inspired by Varian's no-envy. Emissions are reduced so as to equalise total costs and benefits of climate change over all countries of the world and over all time periods. Emission reductions are substantial. This method approximately preserves the inequities that would occur in a world without climate change. The third method uses non-linear aggregations of welfare (the utilitarian default is linear) in a cooperative setting. This method cannot distinguish between sources of inequity. The higher the aversion to inequity, the higher optimal greenhouse gas emission reduction. 59 refs.

  11. The Social Cost of Stochastic and Irreversible Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Y.; Judd, K. L.; Lontzek, T.

    2013-12-01

    Many scientists are worried about climate change triggering abrupt and irreversible events leading to significant and long-lasting damages. For example, a rapid release of methane from permafrost may lead to amplified global warming, and global warming may increase the frequency and severity of heavy rainfall or typhoon, destroying large cities and killing numerous people. Some elements of the climate system which might exhibit such a triggering effect are called tipping elements. There is great uncertainty about the impact of anthropogenic carbon and tipping elements on future economic wellbeing. Any rational policy choice must consider the great uncertainty about the magnitude and timing of global warming's impact on economic productivity. While the likelihood of tipping points may be a function of contemporaneous temperature, their effects are long lasting and might be independent of future temperatures. It is assumed that some of these tipping points might occur even in this century, but also that their duration and post-tipping impact are uncertain. A faithful representation of the possibility of tipping points for the calculation of social cost of carbon would require a fully stochastic formulation of irreversibility, and accounting for the deep layer of uncertainties regarding the duration of the tipping process and also its economic impact. We use DSICE, a DSGE extension of the DICE2007 model of William Nordhaus, which incorporates beliefs about the uncertain economic impact of possible climate tipping events and uses empirically plausible parameterizations of Epstein-Zin preferences to represent attitudes towards risk. We find that the uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change imply carbon taxes much higher than implied by deterministic models. This analysis indicates that the absence of uncertainty in DICE2007 and similar IAM models may result in substantial understatement of the potential benefits of policies to reduce GHG emissions.

  12. Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

  13. Climate change and States security: an operational link to develop locally and on the medium term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taithe, Alexandre

    2007-01-01

    The author first notices that climate change and environmental degradations induce new logics in international relationships, and then discusses how consequences of climate change can be factors of instability for States, and how to address them. He recalls and comments the main effects of climate change as they have been described in IPCC reports. He outlines limitations of conventional approaches in terms of direct and indirect impacts on States. Direct effects concern territories (for example, a modification of borders due to sea level rise or to erosion), populations (impact of extreme events on housing, on health) and the economy (more particularly the primary sector and high levels of adaptation costs). The author outlines the limitations of these global models, and proposes additional and corrective approaches: hybrid (regional and global) approaches, local and medium term-based approach (some natural resource management can be assessed and organised only locally). An appendix proposes a contribution of an IPCC work-group in which impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities of the different regions of the world in front of climate changes are summarized

  14. Climate change mitigation in developing countries through interregional collaboration by local governments: Japanese citizens' preference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Hidenori; Kato, Takaaki

    2011-01-01

    This study explores the motivation of domestic and international interregional collaboration on climate change mitigation through carbon crediting by Japanese local governments, using a social survey. The study finds balanced collaboration with domestic partner regions and developing countries is preferred in the case of collaboration, given that the unit cost of collaboration is assumed lower than that of no collaboration. Appreciation of benefits such as technology transfer and local environmental improvement in developing countries increases the preference of collaboration with developing countries. Two factors hinder Japanese local governments' collaboration with developing countries from the perspective of citizens: a sense of environmental responsibility to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the city and a preference for domestic orientation even if the collaboration with developing countries is less costly and has benefits of technology transfer and local environmental improvement. The preference for a lower total cost of GHG emissions reductions is confirmed except for those with a sense of environmental responsibility. The study also finds that provision of information on mitigation projects and co-benefits would increase the preference for interregional collaboration with developing countries depending on the types of collaborative project, except for those with a sense of environmental responsibility. - Highlights: → We surveyed views of Japanese citizens on interregional/international cooperation of their cities for GHG reduction. → Sense of environmental responsibility is negatively correlated with the needs for cooperation. → Information on co-benefits of collaboration would strengthen preference for cooperation.

  15. Evolving local climate adaptation strategies: incorporating influences of socio–economic stress

    OpenAIRE

    Hjerpe, Mattias; Glaas, Erik

    2012-01-01

    Socio-economic and climatic stresses affect local communities’ vulnerability toflooding. Better incorporation of socio-economic stress in local vulnerability assessments isimportant when planning for climate adaptation. This is rarely done due to insufficientunderstanding of their interaction, in both theory and practice. The omission leads to criticalweaknesses in local adaptation strategies. This study analyses how socio-economic stressinteract with climatic stress and shape local vulnerabi...

  16. Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Leemans, R.

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of climate change impacts on food safety requires food safety assessment with different past and future climate scenario data to compare current and future conditions. This study presents a tool to prepare climate and climate change data for local food safety scenario analysis and

  17. Costs of climate change: Economic value of Yakima River salmon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, D.M.; Shankle, S.A.; Scott, M.J.; Neitzel, D.A.; Chatters, J.C.

    1992-07-01

    This work resulted from a continuing multidisciplinary analysis of species preservation and global change. The paper explores the economic cost of a potential regional warming as it affects one Pacific Northwest natural resource, the spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshcawytscha). Climate change and planned habitat improvements impact the production and economic value of soling chinook salmon of the Yakima River tributary of the Columbia River in eastern Washington. The paper presents a derivation of the total economic value of a chinook salmon, which includes the summation of the existence, commercial, recreational, and capital values of the fish. When currently available commercial, recreational, existence, and capital values for chinook salmon were applied to estimated population changes, the estimated change in the economic value per fish associated with reduction of one fish run proved significant

  18. Butterfly effect: understanding and mitigating the local consequences of climate change impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenz, Donna

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The Butterfly Effect is the notion that tiny differences in initial conditions are amplified in the evolution of a dynamic system and directly affect the eventual outcome. In 1963 mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz proposed that the flapping of a butterfly's wing would cause a disturbance that becomes exponentially amplified so as to eventually affect large-scale atmospheric motion. This was to illustrate the 'sensitive dependence on initial conditions'; sensitivity also true in affecting the extent of damages experienced as a result of climate change. In a climate change context, The Butterfly Effect suggests the local consequences of climate change impacts will depend on their interaction with the economic, environmental, institutional, technological and demographic attributes unique to a city or region. It is this mix of factors that will determine the extent, both positively and negatively, to which climate change will be experienced locally. For a truly effective climate change response, it is imperative that regional risk assessments and adaptation strategies take into account not only the projected impacts but the full range of flow-on implications of those impacts and their sensitivity factors. Understanding of the sensitivity factors that will amplify or mitigate climate change impacts and implications enables government and business leaders to calculate the likely extent of localised damages if no adaptation is undertaken. This allows industries and communities to evaluate the likely significance of a particular impact and to consider how to adjust or counter the sensitivity factor to build resilience and reduce vulnerability. Thus, it also assists in the local prioritisation of issues and responses. Such a strategic response can also mean the required adaptation measures may be less extensive and thereby require less cost and time to implement. This paper discusses the flow-on implications of Australia's projected climate change

  19. Using Local Stories as a Call to Action on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phipps, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy and the University of Minnesota's Regional Sustainability Development Partnerships (RSDP) have developed a novel approach to engaging rural Minnesotans on climate change issues. Through the use of personal, local stories about individuals' paths to action to mitigate and or adapt to climate change, Climate Generation and RSDP aim to spur others to action. Minnesota's Changing Climate project includes 12 Climate Convenings throughout rural Minnesota in a range of communities (tourism-based, agrarian, natural resources-based, university towns) to engage local populations in highly local conversations about climate change, its local impacts, and local solutions currently occurring. Climate Generation and RSDP have partnered with Molly Phipps Consulting to evaluate the efficacy of this approach in rural Minnesota. Data include pre and post convening surveys examining participants' current action around climate change, attitudes toward climate change (using questions from Maibach, Roser-Renouf, and Leiserowitz, 2009), and the strength of their social network to support their current and ongoing work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change. Although the Climate Convenings are tailored to each community, all include a resource fair of local organizations already engaging in climate change mitigation and adaptation activities which participants can participate in, a welcome from a trusted local official, a presentation on the science of climate change, sharing of local climate stories, and break-out groups where participants can learn how to get involved in a particular mitigation or adaptation strategy. Preliminary results have been positive: participants feel motivated to work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change, and more local stories have emerged that can be shared in follow-up webinars and on a project website to continue to inspire others to act.

  20. Cost-assessment Analysis of Local Vehicle Scrapping Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, Lukasz; Gliniak, Maciej; Polek, Daria; Gruca, Maria

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of the paper was to analyse the costs of recycling vehicles at local vehicle scrapping facility. The article contains regulations concerning vehicle decommissioning, describes the types of recovery, vehicles recycling networks, analyses the structure of a disassembly station, as well as the financial and institutional system in charge of dealing with the recycling of vehicles in Poland. The authors present the number of scrapped vehicles at local recycling company and the level of achieved recovery and recycling. The research presented in the article shows financial situation of the vehicle scrapping industry. In addition, it has been observed that the number of subsidies are directly proportional to the number of scrapped vehicles, and achieved levels of recycling and recovery depends on the percentage of incomplete vehicles.

  1. Impacts of the Three Gorges Project on Local Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Z.; Liang, S.; Feng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Three Gorges Project (TGP) is the largest hydroelectric project in the world and has led to significant land cover changes in Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA). Since its construction the debates on its environmental and climatic impacts have never stopped, especially after the extreme drought and flood in Yangtze River Basin these years. TGP reached its final impounding water level in 2010. However, studies on systematically monitoring the long-term variations in surface and atmospheric parameters in TGRA are still lacking. In this study, three important surface parameters - surface albedo, land surface temperature (LST) and evapotranspiration (ET) and two climatic parameters - air temperature and precipitation were investigated from 2000 to 2013 by combining multiple remote sensing data and ground measurements. Results showed that along the reservoir albedo decreased significantly as a result of water impounding. Correspondingly, in the same region daytime LST decreased in spring and summer and nighttime LST increased in autumn and winter. In the western region of TGRA, albedo increased due to resettlement and LST also changed. The average ET increased by 20% in TGR but kept stable in the whole TGRA. In contrast to LST, air temperature showed less apparent spatial and temporal variability. Only in the region near the dam air temperature experienced a decrease at daytime and an increase at nighttime. Further analysis demonstrated precipitation revealed no apparent changes in TGRA and the precipitation anomaly in northwest of TGRA may not be connected with TGP. All of the findings provide a more substantial clues of local climate change caused by TGP.

  2. Local governments and climate change: sustainable energy planning and implementation in small and medium sized communities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Van Staden, Maryke; Musco, Francesco

    2010-01-01

    The focus of 'Local governments and climate change' is on how small and medium-sized communities in Europe are effectively responding to climate change, with a particular focus on different approaches...

  3. UK's climate change levy: cost effectiveness, competitiveness and environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varma, Adarsh

    2003-01-01

    This paper intends to examine the cost effectiveness of UK's climate change levy (CCL), its implications on competitiveness of firms and the environmental impact. The paper briefly describes the levy and analyses it under the cannons of a good taxation policy. The economic implications of the levy are discussed with theoretical and empirical perspectives. Change in net exports, investment patterns and productivity and inclusion of compliance cost forms the basis for analysing the effect on competitiveness. It discusses the options available to firms to safeguard their competitiveness if it is adversely affected by the CCL. A description of the current scenario of the levy since its inception is also presented. The paper argues the need for a comprehensive policy involving the use of standards, emission trading as well as energy taxes to achieve emission and energy-use reductions. A focal point of this paper is to elucidate the pros and cons of the CCL (energy tax) with respect to an emission trading scheme

  4. Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anthoff, David [The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin (Ireland)]|[International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg (Germany)]|[Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg (Germany); Hepburn, Cameron [Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, and James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford, and New College, Oxford (United Kingdom); Tol, Richard S.J. [The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin (Ireland)]|[Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg (Germany)]|[Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)]|[Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2009-01-15

    Climate change will give rise to different impacts in different countries, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. This paper analyses the impact of equity weighting on the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions, and reaches four main conclusions. First, equity-weighted estimates are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may even change the sign of the social cost estimates. Second, estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region to which the equity weights are normalised. Third, equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. Fourth, variations in the assumed inequality aversion have different impacts in different scenarios, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. (author)

  5. Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthoff, David; Hepburn, Cameron; Tol, Richard S.J.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change will give rise to different impacts in different countries, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. This paper analyses the impact of equity weighting on the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions, and reaches four main conclusions. First, equity-weighted estimates are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may even change the sign of the social cost estimates. Second, estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region to which the equity weights are normalised. Third, equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. Fourth, variations in the assumed inequality aversion have different impacts in different scenarios, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. (author)

  6. Climate change: costs of impacts and lines of adaptation. Report to the Prime Minister and Parliament

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The ONERC has steered in 2008 and 2009, with the Department of Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and the Sea, a working-group involving other Departments on the assessment of the impacts of the climate change, the adaptation and the related costs. Relying mainly on government's administrations, this cooperative work included participants from some research organizations and private utilities. Ten key-sectors have been studied: natural risks, water resource, biodiversity, health, road infrastructures, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and territories. The present - third - ONERC report summarizes and comments the main findings of this working group. It provides estimates that the annual costs related to the climate change: they could reach several billion euros per year if no adaptation is undertaken in due time. Several ways and means of adaptation have been defined; they would reduce the negative impacts of climate change in France. Most of the adaptation measures are however largely dependent on the territorial characteristics, and will have to be studied and on a case-by-case basis at the local level. The acquired knowledge and the proposed adaptation solutions will be an input to the national adaptation plan which, by law, is scheduled to be ready in 2011

  7. Development of geological disposal system; localization of element cost data and cost evaluation on the HLW repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Byung Sik; Kim, Kil Jung; Yang, Young Jin; Kim, Sung Chun [KOPEC, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    To estimate Total Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) for Korea HLW Repository through localization of element cost data, we review and re-organize each basic element cost data for reference repository system, localize various element cost and finally estimate TSLCC considering economic parameters. As results of the study, TSLCC is estimated as 17,167,689 million won, which includes costs for site preparation, surface facilities, underground facilities and management/integration. Since HLW repository Project is an early stage of pre-conceptual design at present, the information of design and project information are not enough to perform cost estimate and cost localization for the Project. However, project cost structure is re-organized based on the local condition and Total System Life Cycle Cost is estimated using the previous cost data gathered from construction experience of the local nuclear power plant. Project results can be used as basic reference data to assume total construction cost for the local HLW repository and should be revised to more reliable cost data with incorporating detail project design information into the cost estimate in a future. 20 refs. (Author)

  8. Promoting interactions between local climate change mitigation, sustainable energy development, and rural development policies in Lithuania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streimikiene, Dalia; Baležentis, Tomas; Kriščiukaitienė, Irena

    2012-01-01

    Lithuania has developed several important climate change mitigation policy documents however there are no attempts in Lithuania to develop local climate change mitigation policies or to decentralize climate change mitigation policy. Seeking to achieve harmonization and decentralization of climate change mitigation and energy policies in Lithuania the framework for local climate change mitigation strategy need to be developed taking into account requirements, targets and measures set in national climate change mitigation and energy policy documents. The paper will describe how national climate change mitigation and energy policies can be implemented via local energy and climate change mitigation plans. The aim of the paper is to analyze the climate change mitigation policy and its relationship with policies promoting sustainable energy development in Lithuania and to present a framework for local approaches to climate change mitigation in Lithuania, in the context of the existing national and supra-national energy, climate change, and rural development policies. - Highlights: ► The framework for local energy action plans is offered. ► The structural support possibilities are assessed with respect to the Lithuanian legal base. ► The proposals are given for further promotion of sustainable energy at the local level.

  9. Climate change and electricity consumption-Witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina; Aatola, Piia; Ollikainen, Markku; Tuomenvirta, Heikki

    2010-01-01

    Climate change affects the need for heating and cooling. This paper examines the impact of gradually warming climate on the need for heating and cooling with an econometric multivariate regression model for five countries in Europe along the south-north line. The predicted changes in electricity demand are then used to analyze how climate change impacts the cost of electricity use, including carbon costs. Our main findings are, that in Central and North Europe, the decrease in heating due to climate warming, dominates and thus costs will decrease for both users of electricity and in carbon markets. In Southern Europe climate warming, and the consequential increase in cooling and electricity demand, overcomes the decreased need for heating. Therefore costs also increase. The main contributors are the role of electricity in heating and cooling, and the climatic zone.

  10. Climate change adapatation response at local government level

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The climate change response policy gives the mandate to all municipalities and other levels of government to develop and implement climate chnage adaptation response. The availability of appropriate information is essential for this process...

  11. Local Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change in Tropical Forests of Papua, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Boissière

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available People everywhere experience changes and events that impact their lives. Knowing how they perceive, react, and adapt to climatic changes and events is helpful in developing strategies to support adaptation to climate change. Mamberamo in Papua, Indonesia, is a sparsely populated watershed of 7.8 million hectares possessing rich tropical forests. Our study compares scientific and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK on climate, and analyzes how local people in Mamberamo perceive and react to climatic variations. We compared meteorological data for the region with local views gathered through focus group discussions and interviews in six villages. We explored the local significance of seasonality, climate variability, and climate change. Mamberamo is subject to strikingly low levels of climatic variation; nonetheless local people highlighted certain problematic climate-related events such as floods and droughts. As our results illustrate, the implications vary markedly among villages. People currently consider climate variation to have little impact on their livelihoods when contrasted with other factors, e.g., logging, mining, infrastructure development, and political decentralization. Nonetheless, increased salinity of water supplies, crop loss due to floods, and reduced hunting success are concerns in specific villages. To gain local engagement, adaptation strategies should initially focus on factors that local people already judge important. Based on our results we demonstrate that TEK, and an assessment of local needs and concerns, provide practical insights for the development and promotion of locally relevant adaptation strategies. These insights offer a foundation for further engagement.

  12. Economics of climate change : sensitivity analysis of social cost of carbon

    OpenAIRE

    Torniainen, Sami

    2016-01-01

    Social cost of carbon (SCC) is the key concept in the economics of climate change. It measures the economic cost of climate impacts. SCC has influence on how beneficial it is to prevent climate change: if the value of SCC increases, investments to low-carbon technology become more attractive and profitable. This paper examines the sensitivity of two important assumptions that affect to SCC: the choice of a discount rate and time horizon. Using the integrated assessment model, ...

  13. Understanding How and Why Cities Engage with Climate Policy: An Analysis of Local Climate Action in Spain and Italy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia De Gregorio Hurtado

    2015-10-01

    The results of the analysis show a trend towards an increasing awareness on climate mitigation (highly focused on energy efficiency and the promotion of cleaner energy sources, while adaptation remains an incipient local policy area in both countries. The analysis identifies also the beneficial influence of national and international climate city networks.

  14. Development and nationwide scale-up of Climate Matters, a localized climate change education program delivered by TV weathercasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, H. M.; Maibach, E.

    2016-12-01

    Most Americans view climate change as a threat that is distant in space (i.e., not here), time (i.e., not now), and species (i.e., not us). TV weathercasters are ideally positioned to educate Americans about the current and projected impacts of climate change in their community: they have tremendous reach, are trusted sources of climate information, and are highly skilled science communicators. In 2009, we learned that many weathercasters were potentially interested in reporting on climate change, but few actually were, citing significant barriers including a lack of time to prepare and air stories, and lack of access to high quality content. To test the premise that TV weathercasters can be effective climate educators - if supported with high quality localized climate communication content - in 2010 George Mason University, Climate Central and WLTX-TV (Columbia, SC) developed and pilot-tested Climate Matters, a series of short on-air (and online) segments about the local impacts of climate change, delivered by the station's chief meteorologist. During the first year, more than a dozen stories aired. To formally evaluate Climate Matters, we conducted pre- and post-test surveys of local TV news viewers in Columbia. After one year, WLTX viewers had developed a more science-based understanding of climate change than viewers of other local news stations, confirming our premise that when TV weathercasters report on the local implications of climate change, their viewers learn. Through a series of expansions, including the addition of important new partners - AMS, NASA, NOAA & Yale University - Climate Matters has become a comprehensive nationwide climate communication resource program for American TV weathercasters. As of March 2016, a network of 313 local weathercasters nationwide (at 202 stations in 111 media markets) are participating in the program, receiving new content on a weekly basis. This presentation will review the theoretical basis of the program, detail

  15. Training NOAA Staff on Effective Communication Methods with Local Climate Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timofeyeva, M. M.; Mayes, B.

    2011-12-01

    Since 2002 NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Services Division (CSD) offered training opportunities to NWS staff. As a result of eight-year-long development of the training program, NWS offers three training courses and about 25 online distance learning modules covering various climate topics: climate data and observations, climate variability and change, NWS national and local climate products, their tools, skill, and interpretation. Leveraging climate information and expertise available at all NOAA line offices and partners allows delivery of the most advanced knowledge and is a very critical aspect of the training program. NWS challenges in providing local climate services includes effective communication techniques on provide highly technical scientific information to local users. Addressing this challenge requires well trained, climate-literate workforce at local level capable of communicating the NOAA climate products and services as well as provide climate-sensitive decision support. Trained NWS climate service personnel use proactive and reactive approaches and professional education methods in communicating climate variability and change information to local users. Both scientifically-unimpaired messages and amiable communication techniques such as story telling approach are important in developing an engaged dialog between the climate service providers and users. Several pilot projects NWS CSD conducted in the past year applied the NWS climate services training program to training events for NOAA technical user groups. The technical user groups included natural resources managers, engineers, hydrologists, and planners for transportation infrastructure. Training of professional user groups required tailoring the instructions to the potential applications of each group of users. Training technical user identified the following critical issues: (1) Knowledge of target audience expectations, initial knowledge status, and potential use of climate

  16. Regional climate, local climate and ozone air pollution in Tours and Orleans cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berthelot, M.

    2006-10-01

    The importance of the relations between climate and the air pollution justifies the interest related to the role of the urban heat island of heat with respect to the night persistence of ozone in urban environment. When the days are favourable with important ozone concentrations, the agglomerations of the area observe a dynamics day laborer of ozone different from that observed in rural environment. The study is undertaken on the towns of Turns and Orleans where the observations of Lig'Air revealed a night persistence of ozone whereas the concentrations drop more quickly in periphery. This phenomenon is remarkable during the little broken down anticyclonic days. The region region Centre is a ground of study privileged for ozone because of its situation in the south-west of the Island of France rich in precursors of ozone. When flow is of continental origin, the Centre area is found then under the influence of the Paris area. The investigation of a study of the air pollution must take into account the notes of the regional climate and local climate. Several preliminary studies must intervene to answer our principal problems. First of all a descriptive study of the regional climate is carried out with the participation of Meteo-France. The current absence of climatic atlas as well as the many disparities of the climate related to extended from the territory partly justify the interest of our study. The regional approach of the climate is also essential for the continuation of work on a finer scale on the agglomerations of Turns and Orleans in order to detect the urban heat island of heat there. Collaboration with Meteo-France and Lig'Air made it possible to establish a satisfying network of measurement making it possible to obtain notable thermal differences between the downtown area and the surrounding rural environment. The correlation between meteorology and the proven air pollution leads us to establish the climatology of ozone. Many are the studies having

  17. Providing the Larger Climate Context During Extreme Weather - Lessons from Local Television News

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, M.; Cullen, H. M.

    2015-12-01

    Local television weathercasters, in their role as Station Scientists, are often called upon to educate viewers about the science and impacts of climate change. Climate Central supports these efforts through its Climate Matters program. Launched in 2010 with support from the National Science Foundation, the program has grown into a network that includes more than 245 weathercasters from across the country and provides localized information on climate and ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses in both English and Spanish. This presentation will focus on discussing best practices for integrating climate science into the local weather forecast as well as advances in the science of extreme event attribution. The Chief Meteorologist at News10 (Sacramento, CA) will discuss local news coverage of the ongoing California drought, extreme weather and climate literacy.

  18. A Methodology for Meta-Analysis of Local Climate Change Adaptation Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Local governments are beginning to take steps to address the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and heat events. However, we donot have a clear understanding of what local governments are doing -- the extent to which they expect climate change to affect their ...

  19. Climate change perceptions and local adaptation strategies of hazard-prone rural households in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    G.M. Monirul Alam; Khorshed Alam; Shahbaz Mushtaq

    2017-01-01

    Adaptation is a key strategy that can alleviate the severity of climate change impacts on agriculture and food production. Adaptation strategies are unlikely to be effective without an understanding of the farmers’ perceptions of climate change. This paper explores the local knowledge of adaptation in response to the perceived impacts of climate change and climatic hazards using a survey of 380 resource-poor riverbank erosion-prone households in Bangladesh. The results indicate that the respo...

  20. Climate Change Adaptation in Dutch Local Communities. Risk Perception, Institutional Capacity and the Role of Local Government.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Maya Marieke

    2010-01-01

    This report explains the outcomes of the research project Analysing local climate vulnerability and local adaptation strategies which was carried out from 2005 up till 2009 at the Twente Centre for Studies in Technology and Sustainable Development (CSTM), University of Twente. This project is funded

  1. Is the uncertainty about climate change too large for expected cost-benefit analysis?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2003-01-01

    Cost-benefit analysis is only applicable if the variances of both costs and benefits are finite. In the case of climate change, the variances of the net present marginal costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction need to be finite. Finiteness is hard, if not impossible to prove. The

  2. Energy policy design and China’s local climate governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ting, Guan; Delman, Jørgen

    2017-01-01

    This study probes into climate policy design at city level in China, with Hangzhou’s energy efficiency and renewable energy policies between 2005 and 2014 as a case. The study applies a political action arena approach to accentuate the importance of different normative preferences behind climate...

  3. Preparing for climate change: a perspective from local public health officers in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedsworth, Louise

    2009-04-01

    The most recent scientific findings show that even with significant emission reductions, some amount of climate change is likely inevitable. The magnitude of the climate changes will depend on future emissions and climate sensitivity. These changes will have local impacts, and a significant share of coping with these changes will fall on local governmental agencies. Public health is no exception, because local public health agencies are crucial providers of disease prevention, health care, and emergency preparedness services. This article presents the results of a survey of California's local pubic health officers conducted between August and October 2007. The survey gauged health officers' concerns about the public health impacts of climate change, programs in place that could help to mitigate these health effects, and information and resource needs for better coping with a changing climate. The results of this survey show that most public health officers feel that climate change poses a serious threat to public health but that they do not feel well equipped in terms of either resources or information to cope with that threat. Nonetheless, public health agencies currently implement a number of programs that will help these agencies handle some of the challenges posed by a changing climate. Overall, the results suggest that local public health agencies in California are likely in a better position than they perceive to address the threats associated with climate change but that there is a larger role for them to play in climate policy.

  4. Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2010-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

  5. Municipal climate protection. Possibilities for local governments; Kommunaler Klimaschutz. Moeglichkeiten fuer die Kommunen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-01-15

    Climate protection is an important aspect of our time. The Federal Government recognized the central role of climate protection. This is reflected in the energy concept, adopted in September 2010. The booklet under consideration published regarding to the amendment of municipal guideline and is a reprint of a previously published paper on local climate protection. Besides conceptual contributions, this brochure provides practical examples of adaptation strategies to climate change, innovative ideas such as the project 'Coaching municipal climate protection' and the presentation of a network of '100 % Renewable Energy Regions'.

  6. The consequences of climatic change in Germany. What can we do, and how much does it cost?; Die Folgen des Klimawandels in Deutschland. Was koennen wir tun und was kostet es? Hintergrundpapier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasse, Clemens

    2012-09-15

    The background information under consideration discusses the impact of climate change in Germany. It is shown, how measures for the adaptation to the climatic change may be subjected to a cost-benefit-analysis. An extended cost-benefit analysis is applied on practical case studies. The background information primarily is aimed at policy makers at federal government, state governments and local governments analysing the risks of climate change and planning adaptation measures by thmselves.

  7. Conceptualising national climate change policy through the local lenses: The case of Capricorn District Municipality, Limpopo, South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Murambadoro, Miriam D

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This poster presents the preliminary findings of a study which seeks to understand the learning systems used for climate change adaptation at local government level. It looks at how the local government officials conceptualise the National Climate...

  8. Presenting a Framework to Analyze Local Climate Policy and Action in Small and Medium-Sized Cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoppe, Thomas; van der Vegt, Arjen; Stegmaier, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Academic attention to local climate policy usually focuses on large-sized cities. Given the climate challenges ahead this seems unjustified. Small and medium-sized cities (SMCs) deserve scholarly attention as well. The main question is: What factors influence climate change policy and local climate

  9. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Climate Change to Our Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Simon; Groom, Ben; Pizer, William A.

    2016-01-01

    Our efforts to put the brakes on climate change or adapt to a warming climate present a fundamental tradeoff between costs borne today and benefits that accrue to the children and grandchildren of the current generation. In making investments today that affect future generations' prospects, we need to think carefully about how we value their…

  10. Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

    2015-04-14

    Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

  11. Abatement costs of post-Kyoto climate regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elzen, Michel den; Lucas, Paul; Vuuren, Detlef van

    2005-01-01

    This article analyses the abatement costs of three post-Kyoto regimes for differentiating commitments compatible with stabilising atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations at 550 ppmv CO 2 equivalent in 2100. The three regimes explored are: (1) the Multi-Stage approach assumes a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved who are adopting either emission intensity or reductions targets; (2) the Brazilian Proposal approach, i.e. the allocation or reductions based on countries' contribution to temperature increase; (3) Contraction and Convergence, with full participation in convergence of per capita emission allowances. In 2050, the global costs increase up to about 1% of the world GDP, ranging from 0.5% to 1.5%, depending on baseline scenario and marginal abatement costs. Four groups of regions can be identified on the basis of similar costs (expressed as the percentage of GDP). These are: (1) OECD regions with average costs; (2) FSU, the Middle East and Latin America with high costs; (3) South-East Asia and East Asia (incl. China) with low costs; and (4) South Asia (incl. India) and Africa with net gains from emissions trading for most regimes. The Brazilian Proposal approach gives the highest costs for groups 1 and 2. The distribution of costs for the Contraction and Convergence approach highly depends on the convergence year. The Multi-Stage approach and Contraction and Convergence (convergence year 2050) seem to result in relatively the most even distribution of costs amongst all Parties

  12. Counting the cost of climate change in Namibia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahlen, Linda [Umea University (Sweden); Stage, Jesper [Goeteborg University (Sweden); Reid, Hannah; MacGregor, James

    2007-12-15

    When most of a country's wealth is in the wild, shifts in natural systems can wreak havoc with its economy. Namibia is a case in point. Its natural legacy underpins much of the national bank balance — and also leaves it highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In fact, research suggests the impacts on natural resources alone could reduce the country's GDP by 1 to 6 per cent. The need to mainstream climate change into national policies and planning is clear, not least because the poor will be most affected. Employment opportunities could shrink and wages fall, with incomes for unskilled labour dropping by 24 per cent in a worst-case scenario. So along with 'climate-proofed' policies and activities, Namibia needs a strategy to deal with displaced farmers and farmworkers. But it is up to industrialised nations — the most responsible for climate change — to help Namibia and other vulnerable countries cope with the impacts and plan for a climate-constrained future.

  13. Local Government Planning Tool to Calculate Institutional and Engineering Control Costs for Brownfield Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    This cost calculator is designed as a guide for municipal or local governments to assist in calculating their expected costs of implementing and conducting long-term stewardship of institutional controls and engineering controls at brownfield properties.

  14. Climate change and the insurance industry. The cost of increased risk and the impetus for action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tucker, Michael

    1997-01-01

    A convincing economic argument for taking action to prevent or ameliorate climate change has not developed because of both uncertainty about the degree of change and its timing. Recent costly weather-related catastrophes with consequent negative impacts on the insurance industry has made the insurance industry a potential advocate for slowing what has been identified as a causal factor in climate change: emissions of greenhouse gases. However, rising costs of claims, without a longer-term trend of such catastrophic losses, will make it difficult to present a strong case for taking costly economic action. Using the Black Scholes Option Pricing Model, it is shown that increasing levels of climate variability as embedded in the anticipated variability of damage to insured assets will have an immediate economic cost that could serve to bolster the argument for more immediate action. That cost is shown to be economically justified higher insurance premiums

  15. Gathering storm. The human cost of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowell, O.; Chang, I.

    2000-09-01

    Friends of the Earth International demonstrates the urgency of action needed to halt climate change (Part 1). Personal testimonies from survivors of Hurricane Mitch, the Mozambique floods and other events give a chilling insight of what may lie ahead for more of us in the future (Part 2). Extreme high-temperature events, droughts, floods, cyclones and storm surges with knock-on effects for ecosystems, fires, pest outbreaks, human health, our settlements and food security (Part 3). Part 4 looks at which countries are blocking action on climate change and proposes solutions for the way forward. Much deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, based on an equitable sharing of the atmosphere, are needed if dangerous climate change is to be averted. Global protection will only happen when all parties at the climate summit acknowledge the real risks of climate change and their own responsibilities in improving the situation through emissions reductions. Industrialised countries must make much deeper cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions of as much as 80-90% to keep climate change within acceptable limits while allowing developing countries space to develop, Friends of the Earth International calls on governments to ensure that decisions taken at the CoP-6 in The Hague, Netherlands (1) Ensure that the Kyoto Protocol results in real and permanent emissions reductions through the development of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures; (2) Commit industrialised countries to achieving 80% of their Kyoto objective through emissions reductions at home; and (3) Enshrine principles of equity in the framework for emission reductions in the next and future commitment periods based on an equal per capita approach and ecological limits [nl

  16. Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: an integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Cian, E.; Hof, A. F.; Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D. P.

    2016-07-01

    Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading.

  17. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This document reports the works of an inter-departmental group and of sector-based and transverse groups which aimed at assessing the impacts of climate change. After a first contribution about the assessment methodology, the works of sector-based groups and transverse groups are reported. These groups are dealing with agriculture, forest, infrastructures and built environment, tourism, energy, health, water, natural risks (and insurance and adaptation to climatic change in metropolitan France), biodiversity and land. For each of them, challenges, assessment approaches, first results and perspectives are discussed

  18. Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J Wiens

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the "warm edges" of species' ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations, contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%, in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%, and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%. Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades.

  19. Local governments and climate change: sustainable energy planning and implementation in small and medium sized communities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Van Staden, Maryke; Musco, Francesco

    2010-01-01

    ...) motivations and actions. The most effective responses are those with a holistic, integrated and lon-term approach, addressing both climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on citizen and other local stakeholder involvement...

  20. Seven Steps in Identifying Local Climate Change Responses for Agriculture in Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosma, R.H.; Ngo, An T.; Huynh, Chuong V.; Le, Huong T.; Dang, Nhan K.; Van, Tri P.D.; Halsema, van G.E.

    2016-01-01

    This study presents a seven-step approach to identify and support local climate change (CC) responses in agriculture. The following seven steps comprise this approach: 1. Analyse past trends on the climatic factors and model the future trends. 2. Simulate the possible impacts of CC on the selected

  1. Adaptation to climate change at local level in Europe: An overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aguiar, F.C.; Bentz, J.; Silva, J.M.N.; Fonseca, A.L.; Swart, R.J.; Santos, F.D.; Penha-Lopes, Gil

    2018-01-01

    Europe’s climate change vulnerability pushes for initiatives such as the European Adaptation Strategy and the associated Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy. What are the triggers and barriers, for which sectors and for which risks and how is adaptation funded? This paper examines 147 Local

  2. Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska's changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is altering wildfire activity across Alaska, with increased area burned projected for the future. Changes in wildfire are expected to affect the need for management and suppression resources, however the potential economic implications of these needs have not been ...

  3. Strengthening Local Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Researchers will then couple these scenarios with hydrological models and projected trends in land use and agriculture to identify the areas and populations most vulnerable to water-related climate change. The government of the province of Oruro has expressed an interest in pioneering adaptation plans and has already ...

  4. Cost analysis of injection laryngoplasty performed under local anaesthesia versus general anaesthesia: an Australian perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandran, D; Woods, C M; Schar, M; Ma, N; Ooi, E H; Athanasiadis, T

    2018-02-01

    To conduct a cost analysis of injection laryngoplasty performed in the operating theatre under local anaesthesia and general anaesthesia. The retrospective study included patients who had undergone injection laryngoplasty as day cases between July 2013 and March 2016. Cost data were obtained, along with patient demographics, anaesthetic details, type of injectant, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, length of stay, total operating theatre time and surgeon procedure time. A total of 20 cases (general anaesthesia = 6, local anaesthesia = 14) were included in the cost analysis. The mean total cost under general anaesthesia (AU$2865.96 ± 756.29) was significantly higher than that under local anaesthesia (AU$1731.61 ± 290.29) (p costs. Procedures performed under local anaesthesia in the operating theatre are associated with shorter operating theatre time and length of stay in the hospital, and provide significant cost savings. Further savings could be achieved if local anaesthesia procedures were performed in the office setting.

  5. Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs : An integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Cian, E.; Hof, A. F.; Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2016-01-01

    Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of

  6. Local Telephone Costs and the Design of Rate Structures,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-05-01

    basic principles developed from this theory. These principles call for provisionally pricing each of the firm’s outputs at its marginal cost, testing...rule--prices are increased above marginal costs in inverse proportion to the individual price elasticities of demand. This paper applies ratemaking ...The fol- lowing sections develop a series of simple models that successively incorporate these basic elements. Throughout the paper I make several

  7. Local collectivities and climatic change. Are you ready? A guide for the adaptation devoted to the local collectivities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Facing the climatic change effects, it is necessary to develop a national but also regional adaptation policy to the global warming. This guide aims to give, to the local managers, information on the global warming and bring possible adaptation measures. The sectors of planning, buildings, transports, public health, environment and public information are discussed. (A.L.B.)

  8. 15 local climate-energy plans: regions and districts, local leaders of the struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This report presents some general information, the sectors addressed by the Climate - Energy Plan, the approaches adopted, the plan elaboration process (organisation, participation and governance, diagnosis and challenges identification, communication actions), the actions and their follow-up, the success factors and the improvement opportunities of the Climate-energy Plans elaborated and adopted by different French regions (Alsace, Aquitaine, Basse-Normandie, Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comte, Haute-Normandie, Languedoc-Roussillon, Limousin, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Poitou-Charentes) and districts (Alpes Maritimes, Bas-Rhin, Eure, Seine-Maritime)

  9. How does one localize climate change? Climate symbols and the case of the Ilulissat Icefjord

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørst, Lill Rastad

    The former Danish Minister for Climate and Energy, Connie Hedegaard, targeted the UNESCO World Heritage site Ilulissat Icefjord as a prime example of ‘the Greenlandic case’ and called it a strong ‘climate symbol’. Between the years 2005 and 2009, she invited other Ministers and heads of state...

  10. Lessons learnt regarding climate service needs for local government

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Murambadoro, Miriam D

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available in the province; Droughts Strong winds Flash floods Thunderstorms Disease outbreaks e.g. diarrhoea Hailstorm High temperatures Drying Changes in land cover Shifts in rainfall season resulting in late rains Frost Increased health risks area – mosquitos, malaria... and other diseases Participants identified the following to be the things they need the most to respond effectively to climate change in Limpopo; • Access to funding at national and international level to implement projects • Improved information...

  11. An energy and cost analysis of residential heat pumps in northern climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J. K.; Oneal, D. L.

    1980-04-01

    Lack of natural gas and high oil prices, combined with the large energy costs of electric resistance heat have forced renewed attention to the heat pump in colder climates. The diversity in heating energy use and cost effectiveness of forty-one currently retailed heat pumps in three northern cities, Boston, Denver, and Minneapolis, were examined. Heat pump heating energy use and annualized life cycle costs were compared with other forms of space heating equipment in those same cities.

  12. Local Climate Heterogeneity Shapes Population Genetic Structure of Two Undifferentiated Insular Scutellaria Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiung, Huan-Yi; Huang, Bing-Hong; Chang, Jui-Tse; Huang, Yao-Moan; Huang, Chih-Wei; Liao, Pei-Chun

    2017-01-01

    Spatial climate heterogeneity may not only affect adaptive gene frequencies but could also indirectly shape the genetic structure of neutral loci by impacting demographic dynamics. In this study, the effect of local climate on population genetic variation was tested in two phylogenetically close Scutellaria species in Taiwan. Scutellaria taipeiensis , which was originally assumed to be an endemic species of Taiwan Island, is shown to be part of the widespread species S. barbata based on the overlapping ranges of genetic variation and climatic niches as well as their morphological similarity. Rejection of the scenario of "early divergence with secondary contact" and the support for multiple origins of populations of S. taipeiensis from S. barbata provide strong evolutionary evidence for a taxonomic revision of the species combination. Further tests of a climatic effect on genetic variation were conducted. Regression analyses show nonlinear correlations among any pair of geographic, climatic, and genetic distances. However, significantly, the bioclimatic variables that represent the precipitation from late summer to early autumn explain roughly 13% of the genetic variation of our sampled populations. These results indicate that spatial differences of precipitation in the typhoon season may influence the regeneration rate and colonization rate of local populations. The periodic typhoon episodes explain the significant but nonlinear influence of climatic variables on population genetic differentiation. Although, the climatic difference does not lead to species divergence, the local climate variability indeed impacts the spatial genetic distribution at the population level.

  13. Implementing European climate adaptation policy. How local policymakers react to European policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hartmann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these EU networks have on the adaptive capacity in cities. This paper uses two Dutch cities as an empirical base to evaluate the influence of two EU climate adaptation projects on both the experience of local public officials and the adaptive capacity in the respective cities. The main conclusion is that EU climate adaptation projects do not automatically lead to an increased adaptive capacity in the cities involved. This is due to the political opportunistic use of EU funding, which hampers the implementation of climate adaptation policies. Furthermore, these EU projects draw attention away from local network building focused on the development and implementation of climate adaptation policies. These factors have a negative cumulative impact on the performance of these transnational policy networks at the adaptive capacity level in the cities involved. Therefore, in order to strengthen the adaptive capacity in today’s European cities, a context-specific, integrative approach in urban planning is needed at all spatial levels. Hence, policy entrepreneurs should aim to create linkage between the issues in the transnational city network and the concerns in local politics and local networks.

  14. Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaeffer, M. [Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Kram, T.; Van Vuuren, D.P. [Climate and Global Sustainability Group, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven (Netherlands); Meinshausen, M.; Hare, W.L. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Schneider, S.H. (ed.) [Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2008-12-30

    One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general, reported cost estimates for limiting global warming often rise rapidly, even exponentially, as the scale of emission reductions from a reference level increases. This rapid rise may suggest that more ambitious policies may be prohibitively expensive. Here, we propose a probabilistic perspective, focused on the relationship between mitigation costs and the likelihood of achieving a climate target. We investigate the qualitative, functional relationship between the likelihood of achieving a normative target and the costs of climate-change mitigation. In contrast to the example of exponentially rising costs for lowering concentration levels, we show that the mitigation costs rise proportionally to the likelihood of meeting a temperature target, across a range of concentration levels. In economic terms investing in climate mitigation to increase the probability of achieving climate targets yields 'constant returns to scale', because of a counterbalancing rapid rise in the probabilities of meeting a temperature target as concentration is lowered.

  15. Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke E. Penaluna; Jason B. Dunham; Steve F. Railsback; Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Robert E. Bilby; Mohammad Safeeq; Arne E. Skaugset; James P. Meador

    2015-01-01

    Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of...

  16. Low-cost, locally available shelters in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ammarah Mubarak

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Flooding in 2010 affected 18 million people in Pakistan. With declining donor funds and flooding again in 2011 and 2012, the humanitarian community required low-cost solutions that could be scaled up to meet both the immediate and the transitional needs of large populations in differing geographical areas.

  17. Statistical Downscaling Of Local Climate In The Alpine Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaspar, Severin; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2016-04-01

    The impact of climate change on the alpine region was disproportional strong in the past decades compared to the surrounding areas, which becomes manifest in a higher increase in surface air temperature. Beside the thermal changes also implications for the hydrological cycle may be expected, acting as a very important factor not only for the ecosystem but also for mankind, in the form of water security or considering economical aspects like winter tourism etc. Therefore, in climate impact studies, it is necessary to focus on variables with high influence on the hydrological cycle, for example temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity and radiation. The aim of this study is to build statistical downscaling models which are able to reproduce temperature and precipitation at the mountainous alpine weather stations Zugspitze and Sonnblick and to further project these models into the future to identify possible changes in the behavior of these climate variables and with that in the hydrological cycle. Beside facing a in general very complex terrain in this high elevated regions, we have the advantage of a more direct atmospheric influence on the meteorology of the exposed weather stations from the large scale circulation. Two nonlinear statistical methods are developed to model the station-data series on a daily basis: On the one hand a conditional classification approach was used and on the other hand a model based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) was built. The latter is in focus of this presentation. One of the important steps of developing a new model approach is to find a reliable predictor setup with e.g. informative predictor variables or adequate location and size of the spatial domain. The question is: Can we include synoptic background knowledge to identify an optimal domain for an ANN approach? The yet developed ANN setups and configurations show promising results in downscaling both, temperature (up to 80 % of explained variance) and precipitation (up

  18. Using Local Climate Science to Educate "Key Influentials" and their Communities in the San Diego Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudrias, M. A.; Estrada, M.; Anders, S.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Yin, Z.; Schultz, P.; Young, E.

    2012-12-01

    The San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership has formed an innovative and collaborative team whose mission is to implement a research-based climate science education and communications program to increase knowledge about climate science among highly-influential leaders and their communities and foster informed decision making based on climate science and impacts. The team includes climate scientists, behavioral psychologists, formal and informal educators and communication specialists. The Partnership's strategic plan has three major goals: (1) raise public understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change; (2) identify the most effective educational methods to educate non-traditional audiences (Key Influentials) about the causes and consequences of climate change; and (3) develop and implement a replicable model for regional climate change education. To implement this strategic plan, we have anchored our project on three major pillars: (1) Local climate science (causes, impacts and long-term consequences); (2) theoretical, research-based evaluation framework (TIMSI); and (3) Key! Influentials (KI) as primary audience for messages (working w! ith and through them). During CCEP-I, the Partnership formed and convened an advisory board of Key Influentials, completed interviews with a sample of Key Influentials, conducted a public opinion survey, developed a website (www.sandiego.edu/climate) , compiled inventories on literature of climate science education resources and climate change community groups and local activities, hosted stakeholder forums, and completed the first phase of on an experiment to test the effects of different messengers delivering the same local climate change message via video. Results of 38 KI Interviews provided evidence of local climate knowledge, strong concern about climate change, and deeply held values related to climate change education and regional leadership. The most intriguing result was that while 90% of Key

  19. The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Ortiz, Ramon A.; Markandya, Anil

    2011-01-01

    Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall...... to climate change are shown to be in the range of 0.32 to 1.4 percent of GDP in Tanzania 2030. The results provide useful insights into national-level estimates of the implications of climate change on the health sector and offer information which can feed into both national and international debates...... risk of cholera increases by 15 to 29 percent. Based on the modeling results, we project the number and costs of additional cases of cholera that can be attributed to climate change by 2030 in Tanzania for a 1 and 2 degree increase in temperatures, respectively. The total costs of cholera attributable...

  20. Presenting a framework to analyze local climate policy and action in small and medium-sized cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoppe, T.; van der Vegt, Arjen; Stegmaier, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Academic attention to local climate policy usually focuses on large-sized cities. Given the climate challenges ahead this seems unjustified. Small and medium-sized cities (SMCs) deserve scholarly attention as well. The main question is: What factors influence climate change policy and local

  1. Renewable Energy, Climate Action and Resilient Societies: Accelerating the Global and Local Paradigm Shift

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, Thomas; Levai, David; Wang, Xin

    2017-07-01

    This report has been commissioned by a group of foundations in G20 countries, which have come together under the F20 platform in order to engage with the issue of climate change and sustainability in the context of the G20. The report analyzes the emerging energy transition towards efficient and renewable energy systems at global level and in specific G20 countries. On the basis of this analysis, and of the country specific case-studies that have also been conducted in the report, it provides recommendations for foundations and the G20 aimed at enhancing climate change mitigation and sustainability. Key Messages: 1. The global transition to renewable energy systems is underway and accelerating, driven by a combination of policy interventions, very rapid innovation, particularly the fall in renewable electricity costs, and changing societal priorities in many areas, such as the importance being placed on clean air, green industrial development, and investments in local communities. 2. This transition creates tremendous opportunities for countries and companies to ramp-up a new kind of job creation and economic development based on renewable, efficient energy systems. At the same time, countries and actors, who do not anticipate the shift, could be left behind and lose out economically. The good news is that the necessary tools are there. The main question is whether the social and political will for change can be developed and harnessed at the speed and scope required. 3. An economic shift on the scale and speed required to mitigate climate change cannot be achieved solely from the 'top-down'; it can only be implemented with the buy-in and participation of civil society. Worrying trends of inequality, economic disruption, and the fragmentation and fractiousness of public discourse make obtaining this social buy-in all the more difficult. Civil society must thus be seen as an essential partner of policies to drive a new paradigm of sustainable economic development

  2. Effects of local adaptation and interspecific competition on species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocedi, Greta; Atkins, Katherine E; Liao, Jishan; Henry, Roslyn C; Travis, Justin M J; Hellmann, Jessica J

    2013-09-01

    Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

  3. Global and Local Discourses on Climate Change: A Perspective from the Concept of Embeddedness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jailab Kumar Rai

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has been becoming a major order of business of all including researchers and academics. This is known that global, national and local organizations, institutions and even the individuals are partaking into the issues with their own perspectives and skills of negotiations. Despite the series of international efforts and attempts, there are also a series of national concerns, efforts and attempts in combating against the effects of global climate change. This paper is an attempt to draw on the overview of contexts and concerns of international communities for combating global climate change and its discursive influence in national policy discourses. Moreover, the paper attempts to assess the local socio-cultural discourses and dynamics of climate change in relation to global and national discourses. Finally the paper highlights on how global and local climate change knowledge networks and epistemic communities either from political processes or the socio-economic fabrics are interrelated and determinant to each other. Keywords: climate change; discourses; embeddeness; dynamics; global; local DOI: 10.3126/dsaj.v4i0.4518 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol.4 2010 pp.143-180

  4. Rapid adjustment of bird community compositions to local climatic variations and its functional consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaüzère, Pierre; Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent

    2015-09-01

    The local spatial congruence between climate changes and community changes has rarely been studied over large areas. We proposed one of the first comprehensive frameworks tracking local changes in community composition related to climate changes. First, we investigated whether and how 12 years of changes in the local composition of bird communities were related to local climate variations. Then, we tested the consequences of this climate-induced adjustment of communities on Grinnellian (habitat-related) and Eltonian (function-related) homogenization. A standardized protocol monitoring spatial and temporal trends of birds over France from 2001 to 2012 was used. For each plot and each year, we used the spring temperature and the spring precipitations and calculated three indices reflecting the thermal niche, the habitat specialization, and the functional originality of the species within a community. We then used a moving-window approach to estimate the spatial distribution of the temporal trends in each of these indices and their congruency with local climatic variations. Temperature fluctuations and community dynamics were found to be highly variable in space, but their variations were finely congruent. More interestingly, the community adjustment to temperature variations was nonmonotonous. Instead, unexplained fluctuations in community composition were observed up to a certain threshold of climate change intensity, above which a change in community composition was observed. This shift corresponded to a significant decrease in the relative abundance of habitat specialists and functionally original species within communities, regardless of the direction of temperature change. The investigation of variations in climate and community responses appears to be a central step toward a better understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity. Our results suggest a fine-scale and short-term adjustment of community composition to temperature changes. Moreover

  5. Local climate change data is securing food and livelihoods in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-04-29

    Apr 29, 2015 ... By 2020, crop yields in some countries could be reduced by up to 50%, leaving ... to address information gaps at the local-level, with a focus on select ... These and other factors indicate that maize yields may decrease by as ...

  6. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  7. International political economy of climate negotiations while taking into account the mitigation and adaptation costs

    OpenAIRE

    Ilasca, Constantin

    2016-01-01

    Our research focuses on the cooperation and climate governance in the post-Copenhagen era. Its main purpose is to observe and define the evolution of the climate regime, based on the positions of the European Union, China and the United States. These three countries can be considered as big emitters, major economies, as well as great powers. Two main drivers are taken into account in our analysis : mitigation and adaptation costs to climate change. The starting point for our research is to be...

  8. Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Peter D.; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2015-06-01

    Addressing climate change in the United States requires enactment of national, state and local mitigation and adaptation policies. The success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support and behaviours at appropriate scales. Public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states and localities. Here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. The model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. The analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. Nationally, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43 to 80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. These estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.

  9. Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

  10. Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment. A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wratt, D.; Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Allan, S.; Morgan, T.; Kenny, G.

    2004-05-01

    Climate change is a real and internationally recognised outcome of increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It will have effects over the next decades that are predictable with some level of certainty, but which will vary from place to place throughout New Zealand. The climate will also change from year to year and decade to decade due to natural processes. For example, some parts of the country often have dry summers and autumns when an El Nino climate pattern is present. Both natural fluctuations and human-induced climate changes need to be considered when developing adaptation plans and policies, rather than just 'greenhouse warming' effects on their own. Councils already address extreme weather events and climate variations as they develop plans and provide services. Climate change effects need also to be considered as part of these regulatory, assessment and planning activities. It is not necessary to develop a set of procedures for dealing separately with effects and impacts of climate change - they can be built into existing practices. Over time, climate change responses will involve iterative planning processes, keeping up-to-date with new information, monitoring changes, and reviewing the effectiveness of responses. The response to climate change involves international, national, regional, district and community consideration and action. The Guidance Manual aims to assist local government in working with its communities and making appropriate decisions.

  11. Governance by Diffusion: Transnational Municipal Networks and the Spread of Local Climate Strategies in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Lukas Hakelberg

    2014-01-01

    Cities have become crucial actors for the global governance of climate change. Their increased activity in this field is reflected by the rising number of adoptions of local climate strategies in an original sample of 274 European cities from 1992 to 2009. Using event history analysis, I find that this spread is promoted by transnational municipal networks (TMNs) successfully deploying strategies for governance by diffusion, their impact exceeding that of most alternative explanatory factors ...

  12. Innovation of Local Government in Creating Conducive Investment Climate (Study in Lamongan Regency)

    OpenAIRE

    Khoiri, A. Miftakhul

    2016-01-01

    Local government needs innovation to solve public problems, one of them is investment climate. The problems related to investment climate include no security and weak rule of law, lack of infrastructure, las well as ong and complicated bureaucracy. Lamongan Regency is trying to create innovative programs to solve investment problems. Those innovations include Regional Regulation No. 2 of 2015 and Regent Decree number 23 of 2015, proactive service, fast service package, SMS Gateway, facilitati...

  13. Local climate activities in co-operation between municipality, civil society and science shop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Michael Søgaard

    The Science Shop at DTU co-operates with the local municipal administration and the local branch of an environmental NGO about climate change. The co-operation was initiated by a proposal to the Science Shop from the municipal administration. Since the Science Shop requests civil society...... involvement in projects it was proposed to involve the local branch of the environmental NGO. The starting point was topics developed by the administration and the NGO together and announced to students as part of the Science Shop project supply. The focus is climate impact of local activities and strategies...... are initiated and co-ordinated by a group with members from municipal administration, the local NGO and the Science Shop. All projects have involved student projects, but most projects have also contributed to ongoing research activities. The projects up till now have focused on the municipal food supply...

  14. Local government household battery collection programs: Costs and benefits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shapek, Raymond A [Department of Public Administration, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL (United States)

    1995-10-01

    Nearly three billion dry-cell household batteries are discarded in the municipal waste stream annually. While the mercury content of newer batteries has been reduced, older batteries and the accumulated total of mercury and cadmium, as well as other metals in the newer batteries still constitute a potential health risk. Many communities have initiated collection programs to remove this source of contamination from the municipal waste stream, but most have not. Fourteen states have enacted legislation regulating the disposal of household batteries, while nine states require the collection of rechargeable batteries. This article describes the potential health risks associated with continued disposal and incineration of household dry-cell batteries, reviews a sampling of existing municipal collection programs in US communities, and examines the costs and benefits and program options of collection programs

  15. Climate change perceptions and local adaptation strategies of hazard-prone rural households in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.M. Monirul Alam

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Adaptation is a key strategy that can alleviate the severity of climate change impacts on agriculture and food production. Adaptation strategies are unlikely to be effective without an understanding of the farmers’ perceptions of climate change. This paper explores the local knowledge of adaptation in response to the perceived impacts of climate change and climatic hazards using a survey of 380 resource-poor riverbank erosion-prone households in Bangladesh. The results indicate that the respondents’ perceptions of changes in the climate and of extreme climatic events are similar to the observed climate data. Households have recognized the impacts on their livelihood and resources, resulting in an increased sense of vulnerability. To build resilience, households have undertaken a range of farming and non-farming adaptation strategies, which vary significantly among the farming groups. The important adaptation strategies include adopting new crop varieties, changing planting time, homestead gardening, planting trees and migration. Improved access to finance and to information about appropriate strategies appears to be crucial to support adaptation processes locally and thus to enhance the resilience of vulnerable households.

  16. From global framing to local action : translation of climate change impacts in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ogunseitan, O.A. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2000-06-01

    There is considerable controversy regarding policy and climate change mitigation in Africa. Its resolution will require integrating local knowledge and values into climate impact assessments. Africa's vulnerability to climate change can be traced to the frequency of socio-ecological devastation that comes from major climate variations on the continent. The incidence of famines, homelessness and disease epidemics that require international assistance are reflections of weak policies and institution action frames used to cope with climate and weather related emergencies. However, the valuation of climate change impacts has a subjective dimension that can be gained only through indigenous experience and an understanding of values associated with life-saving intervention programs. A recent study showed that discount rates applied to future life-saving programs by Africans are very different from the rates applied in developed countries, and that the difference should be reflected in national development programs and transnational initiatives for capacity building. The study suggests that if the boundary institutions responsible for public health security have not been too effective in resolving the policy controversy surrounding Africa's participation in climate change assessments, it is due partly to the limitations imposed by cross-scale issues in framing. It was concluded that efforts to reduce Africa's dependence on global emergency health response systems will necessitate the development of autonomous capacity to adapt to natural disasters. Appropriate frame reflection is needed at the local level. 56 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig.

  17. Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

    2016-03-10

    The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

  18. The carbon-budget approach to climate stabilization: Cost-effective subglobal versus global action

    OpenAIRE

    Eichner, Thomas; Pethig, Rüdiger

    2010-01-01

    Scientific expertise suggests that mitigating extreme world-wide climate change damages requires avoiding increases in the world mean temperature exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. To achieve the two degree target, the cumulated global emissions must not exceed some limit, the so-called global carbon budget. In a two-period two country general equilibrium model with a finite stock of fossil fuels we compare the cooperative cost-effective policy with the unilateral cost-effective policy of restricti...

  19. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change in the salinity-prone cropping system of Bangladesh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mainuddin, Khandaker; Rahman, Aminur; Islam, Nazria; Quasem, Saad

    2011-10-15

    This study aims to investigate adaptation requirements and their cost implications in the context of coastal agriculture in Bangladesh. Work shows that the various stakeholders in Bangladesh are aware of climate change and its adverse impacts on agricultural production, and are therefore currently trying to embed adaptation into policy and long-term planning documents. The study also indicates that extension workers are active in promoting technological advances for adaptive practices. Research agencies in Bangladesh are also up to date and in the process of developing methods and varieties for climate change adaptation. Many of the existing adaptive varieties and farming techniques were developed by local research agencies. The claims of institutional stakeholders have been supported by local farmers, who already practise adaptation measures through using saline-resistant crops, better farming techniques, and different forms of irrigation. Farmers and stakeholders unanimously agree on the urgent need to excavate canals to resist salinity. The cost of using adaptive varieties is similar to that of traditional rice varieties, which makes the use of adaptive varieties an imperative for the future. Another point emphasised by the stakeholders and farmers is the need for training. In order to achieve benchmarks for adaptation in the coastal zone, capacity building for agricultural staff and farmers has to be simultaneously improved. Furthermore, additional funding needs to be allocated to the relevant stakeholder institutions so that adaptation measures can be effectively implemented and scaled up further.

  20. Cost-Effectiveness of a Locally Organized Surgical Outreach Mission: Making a Case for Strengthening Local Non-Governmental Organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyedu, Adam; Gaskill, Cameron; Boakye, Godfred; Abantanga, Francis

    2017-12-01

    Many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have a high prevalence of unmet surgical need. Provision of operations through surgical outreach missions, mostly led by foreign organizations, offers a way to address the problem. We sought to assess the cost-effectiveness of surgical outreach missions provided by a wholly local organization in Ghana to highlight the role local groups might play in reducing the unmet surgical need of their communities. We calculated the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted by surgical outreach mission activities of ApriDec Medical Outreach Group (AMOG), a Ghanaian non-governmental organization. The total cost of their activities was also calculated. Conclusions about cost-effectiveness were made according to World Health Organization (WHO)-suggested parameters. We analyzed 2008 patients who had been operated upon by AMOG since December 2011. Operations performed included hernia repairs (824 patients, 41%) and excision biopsy of soft tissue masses (364 patients, 18%). More specialized operations included thyroidectomy (103 patients, 5.1%), urological procedures (including prostatectomy) (71 patients, 3.5%), and plastic surgery (26 patients, 1.3%). Total cost of the outreach trips was $283,762, and 2079 DALY were averted; cost per DALY averted was 136.49 USD. The mission trips were "very cost-effective" per WHO parameters. There was a trend toward a lower cost per DALY averted with subsequent outreach trips organized by AMOG. Our findings suggest that providing surgical services through wholly local surgical mission trips to underserved LMIC communities might represent a cost-effective and viable option for countries seeking to reduce the growing unmet surgical needs of their populations.

  1. Qualitative and quantitative evidence on the true local welfare costs of forest conservation in Madagascar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rakotonarivo, O. Sarobidy; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Larsen, Helle Overgaard

    2017-01-01

    Protected areas may impose local welfare costs through the enforcement of use restrictions. Predicting their welfare impacts before their establishment could help with the design of compensation schemes. Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are increasingly used for ex ante evaluations...

  2. Cost and returns analysis of catfish marketing in Aba South Local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cost and returns analysis of catfish marketing in Aba South Local Government Area of Abia State, Nigeria. ... The constraints militating against catfish marketing were also identified. ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  3. Can Perceptions of Environmental and Climate Change in Island Communities Assist in Adaptation Planning Locally?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aswani, Shankar; Vaccaro, Ismael; Abernethy, Kirsten; Albert, Simon; de Pablo, Javier Fernández-López

    2015-12-01

    Local perceptions of environmental and climate change, as well as associated adaptations made by local populations, are fundamental for designing comprehensive and inclusive mitigation and adaptation plans both locally and nationally. In this paper, we analyze people's perceptions of environmental and climate-related transformations in communities across the Western Solomon Islands through ethnographic and geospatial methods. Specifically, we documented people's observed changes over the past decades across various environmental domains, and for each change, we asked respondents to identify the causes, timing, and people's adaptive responses. We also incorporated this information into a geographical information system database to produce broad-scale base maps of local perceptions of environmental change. Results suggest that people detected changes that tended to be acute (e.g., water clarity, logging intensity, and agricultural diseases). We inferred from these results that most local observations of and adaptations to change were related to parts of environment/ecosystem that are most directly or indirectly related to harvesting strategies. On the other hand, people were less aware of slower insidious/chronic changes identified by scientific studies. For the Solomon Islands and similar contexts in the insular tropics, a broader anticipatory adaptation planning strategy to climate change should include a mix of local scientific studies and local observations of ongoing ecological changes.

  4. Tools for Local and Distributed Climate Data Access

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweitzer, R.; O'Brien, K.; Burger, E. F.; Smith, K. M.; Manke, A. B.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Balaji, V.

    2017-12-01

    Last year we reported on our efforts to adapt existing tools to facilitate model development. During the lifecycle of a Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), data must be quality controlled before it can be published and studied. Like previous efforts, the next CMIP6 will produce an unprecedented volume of data. For an institution, modelling group or modeller the volume of data is unmanageable without tools that organize and automate as many processes as possible. Even if a modelling group has tools for data and metadata management, it often falls on individuals to do the initial quality assessment for a model run with bespoke tools. Using individually crafted tools can lead to interruptions when project personnel change and may result in inconsistencies and duplication of effort across groups. This talk will expand on our experiences using available tools (Ferret/PyFerret, the Live Access Server, the GFDL Curator, the GFDL Model Development Database Interface and the THREDDS Data Server) to seamlessly automate the data assembly process to give users "one-click" access to a rich suite of Web-based analysis and comparison tools. On the surface, it appears that this collection of tools is well suited to the task, but our experience of the last year taught us that the data volume and distributed storage adds a number of challenges in adapting the tools for this task. Quality control and initial evaluation add their own set of challenges. We will discuss how we addressed the needs of QC researchers by expanding standard tools to include specialized plots and leveraged the configurability of the tools to add specific user defined analysis operations so they are available to everyone using the system. We also report on our efforts to overcome some of the technical barriers for wide adoption of the tools by providing pre-built containers that are easily deployed in virtual machine and cloud environments. Finally, we will offer some suggestions for added features

  5. Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaeffer, M.; Kram, T.; Meinshausen, M.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Hare, W.L.

    2008-01-01

    One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general, reported cost estimates for limiting global

  6. WP/082 The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James

    , at least until 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce Vietnam’s national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest...

  7. Cost-optimal energy performance renovation measures of educational buildings in cold climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niemelä, Tuomo; Kosonen, Risto; Jokisalo, Juha

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The proposed national nZEB target can be cost-effectively achieved in renovations. • Energy saving potential of HVAC systems is significant compared to the building envelope. • Modern renewable energy production technologies are cost-efficient and recommendable. • Improving the indoor climate conditions in deep renovations is recommendable. • Simulation-based optimization method is efficient in building performance analyzes. - Abstract: The paper discusses cost-efficient energy performance renovation measures for typical educational buildings built in the 1960s and 1970s in cold climate regions. The study analyzes the impact of different energy renovation measures on the energy efficiency and economic viability in a Finnish case study educational building located in Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) campus area. The main objective of the study was to determine the cost-optimal energy performance renovation measures to meet the proposed national nearly zero-energy building (nZEB) requirements, which are defined according to the primary energy consumption of buildings. The main research method of the study was simulation-based optimization (SBO) analysis, which was used to determine the cost-optimal renovation solutions. The results of the study indicate that the minimum national energy performance requirement of new educational buildings (E_p_r_i_m_a_r_y ⩽ 170 kWh/(m"2,a)) can be cost-effectively achieved in deep renovations of educational buildings. In addition, the proposed national nZEB-targets are also well achievable, while improving the indoor climate (thermal comfort and indoor air quality) conditions significantly at the same time. Cost-effective solutions included renovation of the original ventilation system, a ground source heat pump system with relatively small dimensioning power output, new energy efficient windows and a relatively large area of PV-panels for solar-based electricity production. The results and

  8. Cost of wind energy: comparing distant wind resources to local resources in the midwestern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoppock, David C; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia

    2010-11-15

    The best wind sites in the United States are often located far from electricity demand centers and lack transmission access. Local sites that have lower quality wind resources but do not require as much power transmission capacity are an alternative to distant wind resources. In this paper, we explore the trade-offs between developing new wind generation at local sites and installing wind farms at remote sites. We first examine the general relationship between the high capital costs required for local wind development and the relatively lower capital costs required to install a wind farm capable of generating the same electrical output at a remote site,with the results representing the maximum amount an investor should be willing to pay for transmission access. We suggest that this analysis can be used as a first step in comparing potential wind resources to meet a state renewable portfolio standard (RPS). To illustrate, we compare the cost of local wind (∼50 km from the load) to the cost of distant wind requiring new transmission (∼550-750 km from the load) to meet the Illinois RPS. We find that local, lower capacity factor wind sites are the lowest cost option for meeting the Illinois RPS if new long distance transmission is required to access distant, higher capacity factor wind resources. If higher capacity wind sites can be connected to the existing grid at minimal cost, in many cases they will have lower costs.

  9. Planning and costing adaptation of perennial crop systems to climate change: Coffee and banana in Rwanda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ngabitsinze, Jean Chrysostome; Mukashema, Adrie; Ikirezi, Mireille; Niyitanga, Fidele

    2011-10-15

    The Rwandan economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since agricultural production in Rwanda depends almost exclusively on the quality of the rainy season and specific temperature ranges, it makes the country particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. The study objective of evaluating and costing the most suitable climate change adaptation measures for this geographic context responds to the Rwandan Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy, 2008-2012 (EDPRS) (MINECOFIN 2007), in which climate change and its adverse impacts were recently identified as a high priority. This study has particularly focused on coffee and banana farming systems and aimed at analysing shocks due to climate change from farmer to policymaker perspectives. The study found that in the last 30 years, Rwanda has experienced a series of climate fluctuations in terms of frequency, intensity, and persistence of existing extremes. Heavy rains, storms, heatwaves and droughts are the observed manifestations of climate change in specific areas of Rwanda. Changing weather patterns have an adverse impact on the country's agricultural production and thus on the country's GDP. Adaptation options for Rwanda include the following efficiency-enhancing agricultural interventions: 1. Adaption of crop calendars to new climate patterns (more effective distribution of inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides). 2. Investments in farming equipment. 3. Improvement of extension services and research. 4. Restructuring of the institutional frameworks and development plans. Integrated water resources management (IWRM); setting up information systems for early warning systems and rapid intervention mechanisms; intense agri-pastoral activities; and research on climate-resilient varieties were identified as primary requirements for agricultural adaption to climate change. In addition, developing alternative energy sources (e.g., substituting firewood) and the promotion of non

  10. Planning and costing adaptation of perennial crop systems to climate change: Coffee and banana in Rwanda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ngabitsinze, Jean Chrysostome; Mukashema, Adrie; Ikirezi, Mireille; Niyitanga, Fidele

    2011-10-15

    The Rwandan economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since agricultural production in Rwanda depends almost exclusively on the quality of the rainy season and specific temperature ranges, it makes the country particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. The study objective of evaluating and costing the most suitable climate change adaptation measures for this geographic context responds to the Rwandan Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy, 2008-2012 (EDPRS) (MINECOFIN 2007), in which climate change and its adverse impacts were recently identified as a high priority. This study has particularly focused on coffee and banana farming systems and aimed at analysing shocks due to climate change from farmer to policymaker perspectives. The study found that in the last 30 years, Rwanda has experienced a series of climate fluctuations in terms of frequency, intensity, and persistence of existing extremes. Heavy rains, storms, heatwaves and droughts are the observed manifestations of climate change in specific areas of Rwanda. Changing weather patterns have an adverse impact on the country's agricultural production and thus on the country's GDP. Adaptation options for Rwanda include the following efficiency-enhancing agricultural interventions: 1. Adaption of crop calendars to new climate patterns (more effective distribution of inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides). 2. Investments in farming equipment. 3. Improvement of extension services and research. 4. Restructuring of the institutional frameworks and development plans. Integrated water resources management (IWRM); setting up information systems for early warning systems and rapid intervention mechanisms; intense agri-pastoral activities; and research on climate-resilient varieties were identified as primary requirements for agricultural adaption to climate change. In addition, developing alternative energy sources (e.g., substituting firewood) and the promotion of non-agricultural income

  11. A reduced-cost iterated local search heuristic for the fixed-charge transportation problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buson, Erika; Roberti, Roberto; Toth, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    The fixed-charge transportation problem (FCTP) is a generalization of the transportation problem where an additional fixed cost is paid for sending a flow from an origin to a destination. We propose an iterated local search heuristic based on the utilization of reduced costs for guiding the restart

  12. Identifying the Costs and Benefits of Educational Psychology: A Preliminary Exploration in Two Local Authorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Simon; Papps, Ivy

    2017-01-01

    This article provides an account of a small-scale pilot study of the cost and perceived benefits of the educational psychology services in two comparably small local authorities in England. This study is preparatory to a more detailed examination of the costs and likely benefits of state provision of educational psychology services in England. The…

  13. Life cycle cost analysis of HPVT air collector under different Indian climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raman, Vivek; Tiwari, G.N.

    2008-01-01

    In this communication, a study is carried out to evaluate an annual thermal and exergy efficiency of a hybrid photovoltaic thermal (HPVT) air collector for different Indian climate conditions, of Srinagar, Mumbai, Jodhpur, New Delhi and Banglore. The study has been based on electrical, thermal and exergy output of the HPVT air collector. Further, the life cycle analysis in terms of cost/kWh has been carried out. The main focus of the study is to see the effect of interest rate, life of the HPVT air collector, subsidy, etc. on the cost/kWh HPVT air collector. A comparison is made keeping in view the energy matrices. The study reveals that (i) annual thermal and electrical efficiency decreases with increase in solar radiation and (ii) the cost/kWh is higher in case of exergy when compared with cost/kWh on the basis of thermal energy for all climate conditions. The cost/kWh for climate conditions of Jodhpur is most economical

  14. What do we know about climate policy costs and how can we learn more?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    2003-01-01

    How much a policy is expected to cost and who will be bearing the brunt of it play a significant role in the debates that shape regulations. We do not have a good track record of predicting costs, but a systematic review of past assessments has identified the factors that lead to errors. A wide range of expected costs of climate policy have been hotly debated, but all are likely to be wrong. This does not mean that we should continue a debate using ill informed analyses. On the contrary, we need early small experiments to shed light on key unknowns. Climate policy is a long-term challenge and an adaptive regulatory approach promises to inform policy targets and improve GHG controls by through sequential regulatory phases that promote: innovation, flexibility and diffusion of best technologies

  15. Re-framing climate issue by listening to local actors: elements of propaedeutics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bredif, Herve; Bertrand, Francois; Tabeaud, Martine

    2015-01-01

    The disappointing outcomes of international negotiations on climate change are frequently associated with inaction and the consequences of a perceived disconnection between science and politics. However, our experiences and empirical findings based on research carried out in France in highly diverse situations and among very different operators invalidate this thesis. By analysing climate change from the standpoint of territories and local adaptation and mitigation strategies, our article contends that the problem stems instead from a still insufficient fit between local and global levels of expertise and action frameworks. Moreover, we also need to analyse climate change from a new angle and recognise its dual nature in material and objective terms as well as in its cultural, symbolic and subjective components

  16. Civil protection and climate change impacts in the Netherlands: Local risk perceptions and actions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Maya Marieke; Coenen, Franciscus H.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Being a delta, one third of the Dutch territory consists of flood-prone areas. This article discusses how the local civil protection system in the Netherlands responds to increasing climate change-induced flooding risks in terms of risk perception and action. Case studies on three Safety Regions are

  17. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  18. Scientific Data and Its Limits: Rethinking the Use of Evidence in Local Climate Change Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Warren

    2014-01-01

    Climate policy is typically seen as informed by scientific evidence that anthropogenic carbon emissions require reducing in order to avoid dangerous consequences. However, agreement on these matters has not translated into effective policy. Using interviews with local authority officials in the UK's East Midlands region, this paper argues that the…

  19. Presenting a Framework to Analyze Local Climate Policy and Action in Small and Medium-Sized Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hoppe

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Academic attention to local climate policy usually focuses on large-sized cities. Given the climate challenges ahead this seems unjustified. Small and medium-sized cities (SMCs deserve scholarly attention as well. The main question is: What factors influence climate change policy and local climate actions in SMCs? In this article we present an analytical framework to analyze climate change policy and local climate actions of SMCs. The framework addresses different aspects: policy-input, -throughput, -output, -outcome, characteristics of the local environment, local action arenas, influence by higher government levels, and interaction with climate change issue networks. The framework is used to analyze and compare four case studies of SMCs in the Dutch region of Twente (two urban and two rural municipalities, and addresses both adaptation and mitigation. Results show that both ‘localist’, ‘multi-level’ and issue network membership factors influence local climate policy action. Governance modes discerned concern mostly ‘governing by authority’ and ‘self-governing’. When reflecting on the role of SMCs in climate action the study revealed the importance of local capacity building schemes issued by provincial government, inter-municipal network collaboration, and the potential for local governments to mobilize and organize citizen action.

  20. From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

  1. Local Perceptions and Responses to Climate Change and Variability: The Case of Laikipia District, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Ayeri Ogalleh

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural policies in Kenya aim to improve farmers’ livelihoods. With projected climate change, these policies are short of mechanisms that promote farmers’ adaptation. As a result, smallholders are confronted with a variety of challenges including climate change, which hinders their agricultural production. Local knowledge can be instrumental in assisting smallholders to cope with climate change and variability. In this paper, we present empirical evidence that demonstrates local knowledge, perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability amongst smallholders of Laikipia district of Kenya. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI calculated for one station is compared with smallholders’ perceptions. Data was collected using qualitative and quantitative methods in Umande and Muhonia sub-locations. Qualitative data included 46 transcripts from focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Quantitative data is derived from 206 interviewees. We analyzed qualitative and quantitative data using Atlas-ti and SPSS respectively. According to smallholders’ perceptions, climatic variability is increasingly changing. Local perceptions include decreasing rainfalls, increasing temperatures, increasing frosts and increasing hunger. The PDSI shows a trend towards severe droughts in the last four decades, which is in accordance with farmers’ perceptions. Smallholders use a combination of coping and adaptation strategies to respond to variability, including, among others, diversification of crop varieties, migration and sale of livestock. Significant relationships exist between drought perceptions and some adaptations such as migration and sale of livestock. Farmers have an in-depth knowledge of climatic variability, which they use to inform their coping and adaptation strategies. Knowledge of climatic perceptions and adaptations are vital entry points for decision makers and policy makers to learn how and where to enhance the

  2. Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brooke E Penaluna

    Full Text Available Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011, and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year, but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

  3. Effects of Housing Costs and Home Sales on Local Government Revenues and Services

    OpenAIRE

    Allee, David J.

    1991-01-01

    The subtitle of this paper should be " How recession and federal devolution have caused local governments to cut services and raise property taxes --now, what should be done in response to the resulting clamor for local government consolidation?" Housing drives local government services. Home sales represent opportunities for more income and more costs. Intergovernmental competition for tax base and the role of state and federal aid to provide equity between jurisdictions are central to the q...

  4. Good things do not always come in threes: On the excess cost of overlapping regulation in EU climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Böhringer, Christoph; Keller, Andreas; Bortolamedi, Markus; Rahmeier Seyffarth, Anelise

    2016-01-01

    Since the mid-1990's the European Union (EU) aims at pushing global climate policy. The objective is to promote international cooperation by the adoption of substantial EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and their least-cost implementation. Our quantitative impact assessment of the EU Climate and Energy Package shows that the myriad of instruments used in the EU to curb greenhouse gas emissions is doomed to generate substantial excess cost. We conclude that EU climate and energy policy should better disentangle its choices of objectives, targets, and policy instruments on rigorous economic grounds in order to improve the coherence and overall cost-effectiveness of policy initiatives. - Highlights: •EU Climate and Energy Package almost quintuples costs for EU-wide emission abatement. •The main source of excess cost of EU climate policy are energy efficiency mandates.

  5. Climate change: costs of impacts and lines of adaptation. Report to the Prime Minister and Parliament

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    Since its creation in 2001, ONERC has been an essential tool for bringing public authorities and elected officials the necessary bases for strategic choices and for steering political decisions. After having suggested a national strategy for adaptation to climate change for France, ONERC, together with the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and the Sea, responsible for Green Technologies and climate Negotiations, steered an inter-ministerial working group on the impacts of climate change, adaptation and associated costs. Climate change is today a reality, and its consequences will have a significant medium-term impact on our environment and our ways of life. The Grenelle Environment Forum recommended anticipating these as of now, in order to minimise the resulting socio-economic impacts and reduce the vulnerability of the players concerned. Defining and evaluating the impacts of climate change that players will have to confront allows the most suitable adaptation measures to be planned. In March 2007, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and the Sea (MEEDDM) formed an inter-ministerial group under the name 'Impacts of climate change, adaptation and associated costs in France', thus undertaking a project to evaluate the damage and the measures that will allow the cost of impacts to be limited. One of the characteristics of this task resides in the fact that it is, for the most part, carried out by the services concerned, with research organisation and private player collaboration. It must be considered as a stage in an ambitious public action gauging process: it leads to temporary results that remain open to discussion, for development in later stages. The decision has produced sectoral evaluations at Horizons 2030, 2050 and 2100, without wanting to aggregate the results. At this stage, the thematic works have not been designed to be exhaustive: only certain impacts have been assessed in a quantitative fashion. The group chose

  6. A local scale assessment of the climate change sensitivity of snow in Pyrenean ski resorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesado, Cristina; Pons, Marc; Vilella, Marc; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio

    2016-04-01

    The Pyrenees host one of the largest ski area in Europe after the Alps that encompasses the mountain area of the south of France, the north of Spain and the small country of Andorra. In this region, winter tourism is one of the main source of income and driving force of local development on these mountain communities. However, this activity was identified as one of the most vulnerable to a future climate change due to the projected decrease of natural snow and snowmaking capacity. However, within the same ski resorts different areas showed to have a very different vulnerability within the same resort based on the geographic features of the area and the technical management of the slopes. Different areas inside a same ski resort could have very different vulnerability to future climate change based on aspect, steepness or elevation. Furthermore, the technical management of ski resorts, such as snowmaking and grooming were identified to have a significant impact on the response of the snowpack in a warmer climate. In this line, two different ski resorts were deeply analyzed taken into account both local geographical features as well as the effect of the technical management of the runs. Principal Component Analysis was used to classify the main areas of the resort based on the geographic features (elevation, aspect and steepness) and identify the main representative areas with different local features. Snow energy and mass balance was simulated in the different representative areas using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) assuming different magnitudes of climate warming (increases of 2°C and 4°C in the mean winter temperature) both in natural conditions and assuming technical management of the slopes. Theses first results showed the different sensitivity and vulnerability to climate changes based on the local geography of the resort and the management of the ski runs, showing the importance to include these variables when analyzing the local vulnerability

  7. Climate change in the framework of external costs of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayerhofer, P.

    1994-01-01

    Due to the continuing controversies concerning external costs of energy systems, the Commission of the European Union and the US-Department of Energy initiated a common project, External Costs of Fuel Cycles. The purpose of this project is to develop methodologies for the assessment of site-specific external costs on a marginal basis using a damage-function approach. For the assessment of climate change itself physical models are available. Here, the PC-model IMAGE developed by RIVM has been used for the time period up to 2100. Beyond this year, the carbon cycle is modeled with a response function. For the derivation of damage costs, a linear relationship between the global temperature change and the damage costs has been assumed. Thus, damage costs in the range of 0.10 to 0.53 US-cents/kWh for a discount rate of 3% are assessed for typical German fossil energy systems. The highest uncertainties are attached to the discount rate, the range for the climate sensitivity, and the forms of the global warming damage function. These points also have the strongest influence on the results. Hence, future research should be directed to the further analysis of these points. 30 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs

  8. A multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegermiller, Christie; Antolinez, Jose A A; Rueda, Ana C.; Camus, Paula; Perez, Jorge; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Mendez, Fernando J.

    2017-01-01

    Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g. the Pacific). Swell may be generated in vastly different wave generation regions, yielding complex wave spectra that are inadequately represented by a single set of bulk wave parameters. Furthermore, the relationship between atmospheric systems and local wave conditions is complicated by variations in arrival time of wave groups from different parts of the basin. Here, we address these two challenges by improving upon the spatiotemporal definition of the atmospheric predictor used in statistical downscaling of local wave climate. The improved methodology separates the local wave spectrum into “wave families,” defined by spectral peaks and discrete generation regions, and relates atmospheric conditions in distant regions of the ocean basin to local wave conditions by incorporating travel times computed from effective energy flux across the ocean basin. When applied to locations with multimodal wave spectra, including Southern California and Trujillo, Peru, the new methodology improves the ability of the statistical model to project significant wave height, peak period, and direction for each wave family, retaining more information from the full wave spectrum. This work is the base of statistical downscaling by weather types, which has recently been applied to coastal flooding and morphodynamic applications.

  9. International political economy of climate negotiations while taking into account the mitigation and adaptation costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilasca, Constantin

    2016-01-01

    Our research focuses on the cooperation and climate governance in the post-Copenhagen era. Its main purpose is to observe and define the evolution of the climate regime, based on the positions of the European Union, China and the United States. These three countries can be considered as big emitters, major economies, as well as great powers. Two main drivers are taken into account in our analysis: mitigation and adaptation costs to climate change. The starting point for our research is to be found in the polarized evolution of the climate regime. The most illustrative aspect of this 'metamorphosis' is the shift, in 2009, from the top-down to the bottom-up architecture of the climate regime. Thus, we resort to a hybrid theoretical background, which consists of both international political economy and climate change economy. The joint contribution of the two approaches allows us to analyze international political economy with climate economy as an input, as well as the impact of international relations on the main economic framework of climate change. Our research is based on a specific cooperation model, known as the 'k-group' theory, as developed by Duncan Snidal (1985). Within this framework of mini-lateral cooperation, the thesis that we defend is that it is possible to have a climate k-group which may have a trigger effect in order to obtain an ambitious regime. The starting point for our argument is that this group can be considered as a 'club of the relevant', and that what it needs to achieve in order to constitute a k-group is to establish a 'coalition of the willing'. The capacity and the willingness to act are mainly influenced by the costs they have to bear, that is the costs to mitigate their emissions and to adapt to the climate change consequences. Meanwhile, the group's collective commitment depends on other countries' actions. More precisely, the incentive mechanism is built on the idea that cooperation is meant to widen, in order to eventually

  10. Generating relevant climate adaptation science tools in concert with local natural resource agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Veloz, S.; Heller, N. E.

    2015-12-01

    To create a framework for adapting to climate change, decision makers operating at the urban-wildland interface need to define climate vulnerabilities in the context of site-specific opportunities and constraints relative to water supply, land use suitability, wildfire risks, ecosystem services and quality of life. Pepperwood's TBC3.org is crafting customized climate vulnerability assessments with selected water and natural resource agencies of California's Sonoma, Marin, Napa and Mendocino counties under the auspices of Climate Ready North Bay, a public-private partnership funded by the California Coastal Conservancy. Working directly with managers from the very start of the process to define resource-specific information needs, we are developing high-resolution, spatially-explicit data products to help local governments and agency staff implement informed and effective climate adaptation strategies. Key preliminary findings for the region using the USGS' Basin Characterization Model (at a 270 m spatial resolution) include a unidirectional trend, independent of greater or lesser precipitation, towards increasing climatic water deficits across model scenarios. Therefore a key message is that managers will be facing an increasingly arid environment. Companion models translate the impacts of shifting climate and hydrology on vegetation composition and fire risks. The combination of drought stress on water supplies and native vegetation with an approximate doubling of fire risks may demand new approaches to watershed planning. Working with agencies we are exploring how to build capacity for protection and enhancement of key watershed functions with a focus on groundwater recharge, facilitating greater drought tolerance in forest and rangeland systems, and considering more aggressive approaches to management of fuel loads. Lessons learned about effective engagement include the need for extended in-depth dialog, translation of key climate adaptation questions into

  11. Climate-based policies may increase life-cycle social costs of vehicle fleet operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emery, Isaac; Mbonimpa, Eric; Thal, Alfred E.

    2017-01-01

    Sustainability guidelines and regulations in the United States often focus exclusively on carbon or petroleum reductions. Though some of these policies have resulted in substantial progress toward their goals, the effects of these efforts on other social and environmental externalities are often ignored. In this study, we examine the life-cycle air pollutant emissions for alternative fuel and vehicle purchase scenarios at a military installation near a typical urban area in the United States (U.S.). We find that scenarios which minimize petroleum use or greenhouse gas emissions do not concomitantly minimize criteria air pollutant emissions. We also employ social cost methodologies to quantify economic externalities due to climate change and health-related air pollutant impacts. Accounting for the social costs of climate change and air pollution from vehicle use reveals that criteria air pollutants may have a greater total impact than greenhouse gas emissions in locations similar to the urban area examined in this study. Use of first-generation biofuels, particularly corn grain ethanol, may reduce net petroleum use at the cost of increased total health impacts. More comprehensive policies may be needed to ensure that sustainability policies result in a net benefit to society. - Highlights: • U.S. energy and transportation policies focus on petroleum use and greenhouse gases. • Use of corn ethanol at a military base in Ohio, U.S. increases total social costs vs. gasoline. • Renewable electricity provides cost-effective climate and health protection. • DOD strategy to improve energy security may damage Americans' health. • More inclusive policies needed to protect health and climate.

  12. Cost-effectiveness of modern radiotherapy techniques in locally advanced pancreatic cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, James D; Chang, Daniel T; Abelson, Jon; Daly, Megan E; Yeung, Heidi N; Nelson, Lorene M; Koong, Albert C

    2012-02-15

    Radiotherapy may improve the outcome of patients with pancreatic cancer but at an increased cost. In this study, the authors evaluated the cost-effectiveness of modern radiotherapy techniques in the treatment of locally advanced pancreatic cancer. A Markov decision-analytic model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of 4 treatment regimens: gemcitabine alone, gemcitabine plus conventional radiotherapy, gemcitabine plus intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT); and gemcitabine with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). Patients transitioned between the following 5 health states: stable disease, local progression, distant failure, local and distant failure, and death. Health utility tolls were assessed for radiotherapy and chemotherapy treatments and for radiation toxicity. SBRT increased life expectancy by 0.20 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) at an increased cost of $13,700 compared with gemcitabine alone (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] = $69,500 per QALY). SBRT was more effective and less costly than conventional radiotherapy and IMRT. An analysis that excluded SBRT demonstrated that conventional radiotherapy had an ICER of $126,800 per QALY compared with gemcitabine alone, and IMRT had an ICER of $1,584,100 per QALY compared with conventional radiotherapy. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the probability of cost-effectiveness at a willingness to pay of $50,000 per QALY was 78% for gemcitabine alone, 21% for SBRT, 1.4% for conventional radiotherapy, and 0.01% for IMRT. At a willingness to pay of $200,000 per QALY, the probability of cost-effectiveness was 73% for SBRT, 20% for conventional radiotherapy, 7% for gemcitabine alone, and 0.7% for IMRT. The current results indicated that IMRT in locally advanced pancreatic cancer exceeds what society considers cost-effective. In contrast, combining gemcitabine with SBRT increased clinical effectiveness beyond that of gemcitabine alone at a cost potentially acceptable by

  13. Local climate policy in practice. Use of the playing field, impact of trends and the integration of climate care in municipal policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menkveld, M.; Burger, H.; Kaal, M.B.T.; Coenen, F.H.J.M.

    2001-10-01

    The result of the first research phase of the project was an outline of the playing field of local climate policy. The use of options and instruments from the playing field is examined on the basis of literature and interviews with local governments. In the process, barriers for the implementation of options are illustrated. The evaluation of the playing field in practise shows that local governments often only use part of their playing field. Even local governments that excel and are familiar throughout the country in relation to one particular task area ignore other task areas. The reasons why options and instruments are not fully utilised vary per task area: not enough internal support; lack of clear policy framework; climate policy must join in with other targets or local governments depend on cooperation of other actors. Nevertheless, generally speaking the success and failure factors in utilising options in the local government playing field are often related to the sphere of cooperation with other parties and the input of knowledge in the organisation of the local government. Moreover, the importance of climate is not made explicit enough in many task areas. The options in climate policy for local governments are influenced by social developments. In the study three trends are examined with respect to their influence: developments in the area of liberalisation of the energy market, the position of local governments in national environmental policy and changes in local democracy. These trends result in a complication of the role of local governments. Local governments must show more initiative than in the past. Liberalisation leads to a more business-oriented relationship with energy companies and probably lower energy prices. Larger freedom of policy results in more space for establishing local priorities, but does not necessarily result in more attention for local climate policy. Participation can result in a larger support for climate policy but also

  14. Gender and climate change in the Indian Hindu-Kush Himalayas: global threats, local vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogra, M. V.; Badola, R.

    2014-11-01

    Global climate change has numerous implications for members of mountain communities who feel the impacts in both physical and social dimensions. In the Western Himalayas of India, a majority of residents maintain a livelihood strategy that includes a combination of subsistence or small-scale agriculture, seasonal pastoral migration, male out-migration, and localized natural resource extraction. Particularly under conditions of heavy male outmigration, but throughout the region, mountain women play a key role in providing labor and knowledge related to the management of local natural resources, yet often lack authority in related political and economic decision-making processes. This gap has important implications for addressing the impacts of climate change: while warming temperatures, irregular patterns of precipitation and snowmelt, and changing biological systems present challenges to the viability of these traditional livelihood portfolios throughout the region, mountain women increasingly face new challenges in their roles as household managers that have not adequately been emphasized in larger scale planning for climate change adaptation and mitigation. These challenges are complex in nature, and are shaped not only by gender issues but also interacting factors such as class, caste, ethnicity, and age (among others). In this paper, we review the main arguments behind the discursive gender/climate change nexus, discuss the implications for gendered vulnerabilities and transformation of adaptive capacities in the region, and suggest ways that researchers and policymakers seeking to promote "climate justice" can benefit from the incorporation of gender-based perspectives and frameworks.

  15. Study of Climate Change Impact to Local Rainfall Distribution in Lampung Provinces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tumiar Katarina Manik

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Global warming which leads to climate change has potential affect to Indonesia agriculture activities and production. Analyzing rainfall pattern and distribution is important to investigate the impact of global climate change to local climate. This study using rainfall data from 1976-2010 from both lowland and upland area of Lampung Province. The results show that rainfall tends to decrease since the 1990s which related to the years with El Nino event. Monsoonal pattern- having rain and dry season- still excist in Lampung; however, since most rain fell below the average, it could not meet crops water need. Farmers conclude that dry seasons were longer and seasonal pattern has been changed. Global climate change might affect Lampung rainfall distribution through changes on sea surface temperature which could intensify the El Nino effect. Therefore, watching the El Nino phenomena and how global warming affects it, is important in predicting local climate especially the rainfall distribution in order to prevent significant loss in agriculture productivities.

  16. Tailoring the visual communication of climate projections for local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Susanne; Dessai, Suraje; Forster, Piers M; Paavola, Jouni

    2015-11-28

    Visualizations are widely used in the communication of climate projections. However, their effectiveness has rarely been assessed among their target audience. Given recent calls to increase the usability of climate information through the tailoring of climate projections, it is imperative to assess the effectiveness of different visualizations. This paper explores the complexities of tailoring through an online survey conducted with 162 local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK. The survey examined respondents' assessed and perceived comprehension (PC) of visual representations of climate projections as well as preferences for using different visualizations in communicating and planning for a changing climate. Comprehension and use are tested using four different graph formats, which are split into two pairs. Within each pair the information content is the same but is visualized differently. We show that even within a fairly homogeneous user group, such as local adaptation practitioners, there are clear differences in respondents' comprehension of and preference for visualizations. We do not find a consistent association between assessed comprehension and PC or use within the two pairs of visualizations that we analysed. There is, however, a clear link between PC and use of graph format. This suggests that respondents use what they think they understand the best, rather than what they actually understand the best. These findings highlight that audience-specific targeted communication may be more complex and challenging than previously recognized. © 2015 The Authors.

  17. Localizing Climate Information for Municipal Planning in the Central U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulski, M.; Umphlett, N.; Abdel-Monem, T.; Tang, Z.; Uhlarik, F.

    2017-12-01

    The impacts of projected climate change are an ongoing concern for municipalities. Planning at the local level often involves investigations of multiple hazards on decadal timescales. Of particular interest to cities are implications of too much or too little water, snow storms, heat waves, and freeze/thaw cycles on infrastructure, health, energy demands and water quality and availability. A two-year project led by the University of Nebraska - Lincoln has brought together scientist and stakeholder for the purpose of informing municipal planning and climate adaptation for 12 cities in the lower Missouri River Basin states (IA, NE, KS, MO). City-specific climate reports have been developed with municipal input to aid local planning efforts. Surveys to assess municipal climate data usage were distributed to all cities with a population greater than 5,000 in the four-state region. In addition, planning efforts for 18 municipalities have been evaluated for nearly 20 cities in the region to investigate local hazard mitigation, emergency, and comprehensive plans. This presentation will outline key outcomes of the project and discuss decision support tools developed in co-production with city planners.

  18. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change: Policy Perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom; Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtnay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria

    2011-10-15

    Agriculture has a crucial role to play in meeting development goals – from demand for food as populations grow and become wealthier to maintaining essential ecosystem services, diverse livelihoods, and economic development. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has resulted in a sector that is not adequately prepared for the challenges of climate change. Yet for most developing countries, agriculture has been one of the earliest sectors to be affected by climate change, with negative impacts already apparent and more serious consequences projected for the future. There is increasing recognition by both the climate change and agricultural development communities that agriculture needs to be part of a new global climate change deal. 'No agriculture, no deal' is a clear signal from concerned stakeholders that agriculture will be a key feature of climate change negotiations, both for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting vulnerable populations and economies. There has been a long history of assessments of the impact of climate change on agriculture, and recent international movements to press toward effective action are noteworthy. This Policy Perspectives paper summarises the results from a recent study led by the International Institute for Environment and Development, the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, with national teams in five developing countries. The principal conclusions inform policy and planning by addressing the following issues: 1. Framing and methodological development in the assessment of climate adaptation. 2. Assessment of current vulnerabilities, and potential future impacts and costs of adaptation. 3. Identification of strategies and measures considered priorities across regions and types of agriculture in 'pathways of adaptation'.

  19. Cost-effectiveness of carbon ion radiation therapy for locally recurrent rectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mobaraki, A.; Ohno, Tatsuya; Sakurai, Hideyuki; Nakano, Takashi; Yamada Shigeru

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of carbon ion radiotherapy compared with conventional multimodality therapy in the treatment of patients with locally recurrent rectal cancer. Direct costs for diagnosis, recurrent treatment, follow-up, visits, supportive therapy, complications, and admission were computed for each individual using a sample of 25 patients presenting with local recurrent rectal cancer at the National Institute of Radiological Science (NIRS) and Gunma University Hospital (GUH). Patients received only radical surgery for primary rectal adenocarcinoma and had isolated unresectable pelvic recurrence. Fourteen and 11 patients receiving treatment for the local recurrence between 2003 and 2005 were followed retrospectively at NIRS and GUH, respectively. Treatment was carried out with carbon ion radiotherapy (CIRT) alone at NIRS, while multimodality therapy including three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and hyperthermia was performed at GUH. The 2-year overall survival rate was 85% and 55% for CIRT and multimodality treatment, respectively. The mean cost was 4803946 yen for the CIRT group and 4611100 yen for the multimodality treatment group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for CIRT was 6428 yen per 1% increase in survival. The median duration of total hospitalization was 37 days for CIRT and 66 days for the multimodality treatment group. In conclusion, by calculating all direct costs, CIRT was found to be a potential cost effective treatment modality as compared to multimodality treatment for locally recurrent rectal cancer. (author)

  20. Localizing drought monitoring products to support agricultural climate service advisories in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qamer, F. M.; Matin, M. A.; Yadav, N. K.; Bajracharya, B.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Krupnik, T. J.; Hussain, G.

    2017-12-01

    The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identifies drought as one of the major climate risks in South Asia. During past two decades, a large amount of climate data have been made available by the scientific community, but the deployment of climate information for local level and agricultural decision making remains less than optimal. The provisioning of locally calibrated, easily accessible, decision-relevant and user-oriented information, in the form of drought advisory service could help to prepare communities to reduce climate vulnerability and increase resilience. A collaborative effort is now underway to strengthen existing and/or establish new drought monitoring and early warning systems in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan by incorporating standard ground-based observations, earth observation datasets, and numerical forecast models. ICT-based agriculture drought monitoring platforms, hosted at national agricultural and meteorological institutions, are being developed and coupled with communications and information deployment strategies to enable the rapid and efficient deployment of information that farmers can understand, interpret, and act on to adapt to anticipated droughts. Particular emphasis is being placed on the calibration and validation of data products through retrospective analysis of time series data, in addition to the installation of automatic weather station networks. In order to contextualize monitoring products to that they may be relevant for farmers' primary cropping systems, district level farming practices calendars are being compiled and validated through focus groups and surveys to identify the most important times and situations during which farmers can adapt to drought. High-resolution satellite crop distribution maps are under development and validation to add value to these efforts. This programme also aims to enhance capacity of agricultural extension staff to better understand

  1. Climate perceptions of local communities validated through scientific signals in Sikkim Himalaya, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, R K; Shrestha, D G

    2016-10-01

    Sikkim, a tiny Himalayan state situated in the north-eastern region of India, records limited research on the climate change. Understanding the changes in climate based on the perceptions of local communities can provide important insights for the preparedness against the unprecedented consequences of climate change. A total of 228 households in 12 different villages of Sikkim, India, were interviewed using eight climate change indicators. The results from the public opinions showed a significant increase in temperature compared to a decade earlier, winters are getting warmer, water springs are drying up, change in concept of spring-water recharge (locally known as Mul Phutnu), changes in spring season, low crop yields, incidences of mosquitoes during winter, and decrease in rainfall in last 10 years. In addition, study also showed significant positive correlations of increase in temperature with other climate change indicators viz. spring-water recharge concept (R (2) = 0.893), warmer winter (R (2) = 0.839), drying up of water springs (R (2) = 0.76), changes in spring season (R (2) = 0.68), low crop yields (R (2) = 0.68), decrease in rainfall (R (2) = 0.63), and incidences of mosquitoes in winter (R (2) = 0.50). The air temperature for two meteorological stations of Sikkim indicated statistically significant increasing trend in mean minimum temperature and mean minimum winter temperature (DJF). The observed climate change is consistent with the people perceptions. This information can help in planning specific adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change by framing village-level action plan.

  2. National and Local Vulnerability to Climate-Related Disasters in Latin America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Olivier; Rossing, Tine

    2012-01-01

    are main determinants of natural disaster mortality in Latin America. Locally, the region's poor are particularly susceptible to climate-related natural hazards. As a result of their limited access to capital, adaptation based on social assets constitutes an effective coping strategy. Evidence from Bolivia......The Latin American region is particularly prone to climate-related natural hazards. However, this article argues that natural hazards are only partly to blame for the region's vulnerability to natural disasters with quantitative evidence suggesting instead that income per capita and inequality...... and Belize illustrates the importance of social assets in protecting the most vulnerable against natural disasters....

  3. The Availability Heuristic, Intuitive Cost-Benefit Analysis, and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunstein, C.R.

    2006-01-01

    Because risks are on all sides of social situations, it is not possible to be 'precautionary' in general. The availability heuristic ensures that some risks stand out as particularly salient, whatever their actual magnitude. Taken together with intuitive cost-benefit balancing, the availability heuristic helps to explain differences across groups, cultures, and even nations in the assessment of precautions to reduce the risks associated with climate change. There are complex links among availability, social processes for the spreading of information, and predispositions. If the United States is to take a stronger stand against climate change, it is likely to be a result of available incidents that seem to show that climate change produces serious and tangible harm

  4. The determinants of the cost of natural disasters: the role of climate change in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peinturier, Cedric; Bonnet, Xavier; Nicklaus, Doris

    2014-05-01

    After having recalled the scientific context and some definitions, this report aims at proposing an overview of the state-of-the-art in the field of economy of natural risks and climate change in order to allow a better understanding of past events and of critical points for the next decades. It is in fact a synthesis of works performed by technical and economic experts. A first part, based on scientific works, explains the increase of costs of natural risks which has been noticed in the 21. century. It discusses the influence of climate change on this increase (modelling studies on clay movements, coastal risks, flooding, forest fires, wind effects, landslides and avalanches). It examines the possible consequences of climate change on natural hazards in France during the century. The last part examines the possibility to economically assess these potential future impacts

  5. Optimal climate policy is a utopia. From quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M.

    2004-01-01

    The dominance of quantitative cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and optimality concepts in the economic analysis of climate policy is criticised. Among others, it is argued to be based in a misplaced interpretation of policy for a complex climate-economy system as being analogous to individual inter-temporal welfare optimisation. The transfer of quantitative CBA and optimality concepts reflects an overly ambitious approach that does more harm than good. An alternative approach is to focus the attention on extreme events, structural change and complexity. It is argued that a qualitative rather than a quantitative CBA that takes account of these aspects can support the adoption of a minimax regret approach or precautionary principle in climate policy. This means: implement stringent GHG reduction policies as soon as possible

  6. Is local participation always optimal for sustainable action? The costs of consensus-building in Local Agenda 21.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Urs Steiner; Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard

    2013-11-15

    Is local participation always optimal for sustainable action? Here, Local Agenda 21 is a relevant case as it broadly calls for consensus-building among stakeholders. Consensus-building is, however, costly. We show that the costs of making local decisions are likely to rapidly exceed the benefits. Why? Because as the number of participants grows, the more likely it is that the group will include individuals who have an extreme position and are unwilling to make compromises. Thus, the net gain of self-organization should be compared with those of its alternatives, for example voting, market-solutions, or not making any choices at all. Even though the informational value of meetings may be helpful to policy makers, the model shows that it also decreases as the number of participants increase. Overall, the result is a thought provoking scenario for Local Agenda 21 as it highlights the risk of less sustainable action in the future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Summing up the parts. Combining Policy Instruments for Least-Cost Climate Mitigation Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Meeting the enormous challenge of decarbonising world energy systems will require a rapid expansion of investment in clean technologies on a global scale. Mobilising these resources will be a daunting task, and it is important to undertake the transition at the lowest cost possible. This paper seeks to provide some guidance on climate change policy-making within real-world constraints, focusing on the justification of policies to supplement a carbon price, interactions between carbon pricing and supplementary policies, and management of these interactions to enable a least-cost policy response.

  8. Managing air and water quality in the face of uncertain futures: perspectives, perceptions, reported action, and needs for climate adaptation at the local level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedsworth, L. W.; Ekstrom, J.

    2017-12-01

    As the climate continues to shift, projections show amplified and more frequent extreme events, including coastal and inland flooding, wildfires, prolonged droughts, and heatwaves. Vital public goods, both air quality and water quality, can be critically affected by such extreme events. Climate change will make it increasingly difficult for managers to achieve public health targets for air and water quality. Successfully preparing governance structures developed to maintain and improve air and water quality may benefit from preventative strategies to avoid public health impacts and costs of climate change locally. Perceptions of climate change and its risks, actions taken so far, and perceived barriers to adaptation give insight into the needs of managers for preparing for climate change impacts. This paper compares results of two surveys that looked at local level management of air quality and water quality in California. Air quality managers consistently reported to recognize the risks of climate change on their sector, where water quality managers' perceptions varied between no concern to high concern. We explore the differences in governance, capacity influence the ill-defined responsibility and assumed roles of water and air districts in adaptation to extreme events increasing with climate change. The chain and network of managing air quality is compared with that of water quality - laying out similarities and differences. Then we compare how the survey respondents differed in terms of extreme weather-influenced threats to environmental quality. We end with a discussion of responsibility - where in the chain of managing these life-critical ecosystem services, is the need greatest for adapting to climate change and what does this mean for the other levels in the chain beyond the local management.

  9. Localized Multi-Model Extremes Metrics for the Fourth National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, T. R.; Kunkel, K.; Stevens, L. E.; Easterling, D. R.; Biard, J.; Sun, L.

    2017-12-01

    We have performed localized analysis of scenario-based datasets for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). These datasets include CMIP5-based Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled simulations at daily temporal resolution and 1/16th-degree spatial resolution. Over 45 temperature and precipitation extremes metrics have been processed using LOCA data, including threshold, percentile, and degree-days calculations. The localized analysis calculates trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes metrics for relatively small regions such as counties, metropolitan areas, climate zones, administrative areas, or economic zones. For NCA4, we are currently addressing metropolitan areas as defined by U.S. Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Such localized analysis provides essential information for adaptation planning at scales relevant to local planning agencies and businesses. Nearly 30 such regions have been analyzed to date. Each locale is defined by a closed polygon that is used to extract LOCA-based extremes metrics specific to the area. For each metric, single-model data at each LOCA grid location are first averaged over several 30-year historical and future periods. Then, for each metric, the spatial average across the region is calculated using model weights based on both model independence and reproducibility of current climate conditions. The range of single-model results is also captured on the same localized basis, and then combined with the weighted ensemble average for each region and each metric. For example, Boston-area cooling degree days and maximum daily temperature is shown below for RCP8.5 (red) and RCP4.5 (blue) scenarios. We also discuss inter-regional comparison of these metrics, as well as their relevance to risk analysis for adaptation planning.

  10. Climate change adaptation among Tibetan pastoralists: challenges in enhancing local adaptation through policy support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yao; Grumbine, R Edward; Wilkes, Andreas; Wang, Yun; Xu, Jian-Chu; Yang, Yong-Ping

    2012-10-01

    While researchers are aware that a mix of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK), community-based resource management institutions, and higher-level institutions and policies can facilitate pastoralists' adaptation to climate change, policy makers have been slow to understand these linkages. Two critical issues are to what extent these factors play a role, and how to enhance local adaptation through government support. We investigated these issues through a case study of two pastoral communities on the Tibetan Plateau in China employing an analytical framework to understand local climate adaptation processes. We concluded that LEK and community-based institutions improve adaptation outcomes for Tibetan pastoralists through shaping and mobilizing resource availability to reduce risks. Higher-level institutions and policies contribute by providing resources from outside communities. There are dynamic interrelationships among these factors that can lead to support, conflict, and fragmentation. Government policy could enhance local adaptation through improvement of supportive relationships among these factors. While central government policies allow only limited room for overt integration of local knowledge/institutions, local governments often have some flexibility to buffer conflicts. In addition, government policies to support market-based economic development have greatly benefited adaptation outcomes for pastoralists. Overall, in China, there are still questions over how to create innovative institutions that blend LEK and community-based institutions with government policy making.

  11. Climate change and health costs of air emissions from biofuels and gasoline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Jason; Polasky, Stephen; Nelson, Erik; Tilman, David; Huo, Hong; Ludwig, Lindsay; Neumann, James; Zheng, Haochi; Bonta, Diego

    2009-01-01

    Environmental impacts of energy use can impose large costs on society. We quantify and monetize the life-cycle climate-change and health effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions from gasoline, corn ethanol, and cellulosic ethanol. For each billion ethanol-equivalent gallons of fuel produced and combusted in the US, the combined climate-change and health costs are $469 million for gasoline, $472–952 million for corn ethanol depending on biorefinery heat source (natural gas, corn stover, or coal) and technology, but only $123–208 million for cellulosic ethanol depending on feedstock (prairie biomass, Miscanthus, corn stover, or switchgrass). Moreover, a geographically explicit life-cycle analysis that tracks PM2.5 emissions and exposure relative to U.S. population shows regional shifts in health costs dependent on fuel production systems. Because cellulosic ethanol can offer health benefits from PM2.5 reduction that are of comparable importance to its climate-change benefits from GHG reduction, a shift from gasoline to cellulosic ethanol has greater advantages than previously recognized. These advantages are critically dependent on the source of land used to produce biomass for biofuels, on the magnitude of any indirect land use that may result, and on other as yet unmeasured environmental impacts of biofuels. PMID:19188587

  12. Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Pauw, W Pieter; Brander, Luke M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Strzepek, Kenneth M; Hughes, Gordon A

    2010-01-01

    Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a limited number of adaptation strategies, and apply the method using results of two climate models. In this paper, adaptation costs are defined as those for providing enough raw water to meet future industrial and municipal water demand, based on country-level demand projections to 2050. We first estimate costs for a baseline scenario excluding climate change, and then additional climate change adaptation costs. Increased demand is assumed to be met through a combination of increased reservoir yield and alternative backstop measures. Under such controversial measures, we project global adaptation costs of $12 bn p.a., with 83-90% in developing countries; the highest costs are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, adaptation costs are low compared to baseline costs ($73 bn p.a.), which supports the notion of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into broader policy aims. The method provides a tool for estimating broad costs at the global and regional scale; such information is of key importance in international negotiations.

  13. Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ward, Philip J; Pauw, W Pieter; Brander, Luke M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H [Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam (Netherlands); Strzepek, Kenneth M [Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MA (United States); Hughes, Gordon A, E-mail: philip.ward@ivm.vu.nl [School of Economics, University of Edinburgh (United Kingdom)

    2010-10-15

    Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a limited number of adaptation strategies, and apply the method using results of two climate models. In this paper, adaptation costs are defined as those for providing enough raw water to meet future industrial and municipal water demand, based on country-level demand projections to 2050. We first estimate costs for a baseline scenario excluding climate change, and then additional climate change adaptation costs. Increased demand is assumed to be met through a combination of increased reservoir yield and alternative backstop measures. Under such controversial measures, we project global adaptation costs of $12 bn p.a., with 83-90% in developing countries; the highest costs are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, adaptation costs are low compared to baseline costs ($73 bn p.a.), which supports the notion of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into broader policy aims. The method provides a tool for estimating broad costs at the global and regional scale; such information is of key importance in international negotiations.

  14. The impact of local public services and geographical cost of living differences on poverty estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Aaberge, Rolf; Langørgen, Audun; Mogstad, Magne; Østensen, Marit

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: Despite a broad consensus on the need to account for the value of public services and geographical cost of living differences on the measurement of poverty, there is little reliable evidence on how these factors actually affect poverty estimates. Unlike the standard approach in studies of the distribution of public services, this paper employs a method for valuing sector-specific local public services that accounts for differences between municipalities in the costs and capacity ...

  15. The NOAA Local Climate Analysis Tool - An Application in Support of a Weather Ready Nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timofeyeva, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M.

    2012-12-01

    Citizens across the U.S., including decision makers from the local to the national level, have a multitude of questions about climate, such as the current state and how that state fits into the historical context, and more importantly, how climate will impact them, especially with regard to linkages to extreme weather events. Developing answers to these types of questions for locations has typically required extensive work to gather data, conduct analyses, and generate relevant explanations and graphics. Too frequently providers don't have ready access to or knowledge of reliable, trusted data sets, nor sound, scientifically accepted analysis techniques such that they can provide a rapid response to queries they receive. In order to support National Weather Service (NWS) local office forecasters with information they need to deliver timely responses to climate-related questions from their customers, we have developed the Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT). LCAT uses the principles of artificial intelligence to respond to queries, in particular, through use of machine technology that responds intelligently to input from users. A user translates customer questions into primary variables and issues and LCAT pulls the most relevant data and analysis techniques to provide information back to the user, who in turn responds to their customer. Most responses take on the order of 10 seconds, which includes providing statistics, graphical displays of information, translations for users, metadata, and a summary of the user request to LCAT. Applications in Phase I of LCAT, which is targeted for the NWS field offices, include Climate Change Impacts, Climate Variability Impacts, Drought Analysis and Impacts, Water Resources Applications, Attribution of Extreme Events, and analysis techniques such as time series analysis, trend analysis, compositing, and correlation and regression techniques. Data accessed by LCAT are homogenized historical COOP and Climate Prediction Center

  16. User and stakeholder involvement for relevant, reliable and robust local-scale climate projections in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neby, Simon; Sobolowski, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    How can users and stakeholders be actively involved with providing input to and using output from local-scale climate projections? How can the scientific community better understand the needs of local actors? And how should communication and cooperation efforts be organized? These are critical questions we aim to answer in a climate services project funded by the Norwegian Research Council (R3: Relevant, Reliable and Robust local-scale climate projections for Norway). The project takes into consideration not only the scientific issues in establishing useful local-scale climate projections, but also addresses the "usability gap" between climate information and decision-making. The lack of effective communication between scientists and user communities often result in outputs and products that are not matched with decision-relevant climate information. In the R3 project, the scientific participants actively engage with a range of users that have quite different information needs: municipalities, infrastructure developers, agriculture, energy producers, insurance companies, and more. In this particular presentation, we present our experiences concerning three specific issues that relate to the stakeholder-science interface: 1) Preferences are not clear-cut and pre-defined. In practice, this means that stakeholders often do not have precise information about their needs, nor precise information about how, where and whether their needs can be voiced. Similarly, science communities tend to presuppose that stakeholders are interested and have well-articulated needs, which is hardly the case. Collectively, that means that there is a need for an approach that guides the articulation and prioritization of preferences in a manner that integrates both scientific and stakeholder perspectives and takes the integrity of both perspectives seriously. 2) Technologies are unclear. Although information may be produced and used, past experiences, trial and error processes and pragmatic

  17. Costs of performance based maintenance for local roads: Case study Albania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jokanović, Igor; Grujić, Bojana; Zeljić, Dragana; Grujić, Žarko; Svilar, Mila

    2017-12-01

    The provision and maintenance of road infrastructure is a major global business, consequently it is essential that road maintenance services are provided in the most cost effective manner. Without regular maintenance, roads can rapidly fall into disrepair, preventing realization of the longer term impacts of road improvements on development, such as increased agricultural production and growth in school enrollment, which is of particular importance for a network of local (access) roads. Inadequate local roads maintenance in Albania is proposed to be solved by implementing performance based maintenance approach for which the costing exercise is presented within the paper.

  18. Climate change impacts on coral reefs: synergies with local effects, possibilities for acclimation, and management implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu; Feary, David A; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Chen, Allen; Schleyer, Michael H; Sheppard, Charles R C

    2013-09-30

    Most reviews concerning the impact of climate change on coral reefs discuss independent effects of warming or ocean acidification. However, the interactions between these, and between these and direct local stressors are less well addressed. This review underlines that coral bleaching, acidification, and diseases are expected to interact synergistically, and will negatively influence survival, growth, reproduction, larval development, settlement, and post-settlement development of corals. Interactions with local stress factors such as pollution, sedimentation, and overfishing are further expected to compound effects of climate change. Reduced coral cover and species composition following coral bleaching events affect coral reef fish community structure, with variable outcomes depending on their habitat dependence and trophic specialisation. Ocean acidification itself impacts fish mainly indirectly through disruption of predation- and habitat-associated behavior changes. Zooxanthellate octocorals on reefs are often overlooked but are substantial occupiers of space; these also are highly susceptible to bleaching but because they tend to be more heterotrophic, climate change impacts mainly manifest in terms of changes in species composition and population structure. Non-calcifying macroalgae are expected to respond positively to ocean acidification and promote microbe-induced coral mortality via the release of dissolved compounds, thus intensifying phase-shifts from coral to macroalgal domination. Adaptation of corals to these consequences of CO2 rise through increased tolerance of corals and successful mutualistic associations between corals and zooxanthellae is likely to be insufficient to match the rate and frequency of the projected changes. Impacts are interactive and magnified, and because there is a limited capacity for corals to adapt to climate change, global targets of carbon emission reductions are insufficient for coral reefs, so lower targets should be

  19. Enhancing Communication of Climate Impacts Assessments: Examples of Local Stories, Animations and Video.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, M. F.; Grigholm, B. O.

    2014-12-01

    Comprehensive climate impacts assessments are important vehicles for conveying salient information to the public and policy makers. However, over the last few decades communication of this important information has been hampered for a number of reasons. Firstly, we have a rapidly changing social media landscape, where there are fewer opportunities for in-depth treatment of issues. To compete in this arena, climate information needs to be packaged in sound bites, and much of the nuance and complexity may be lost. Secondly, scientific literacy among the general U.S. population is not particularly high, which creates a barrier to understanding and limits the audiences that can be reached. Thirdly, climate science has been undermined by misinformation over many years often funded by fossil fuel interests. While this latter obstacle is clearly diminishing - largely in the face of evidence from the undeniable climate impacts that are already being seen by communities - there has been much confusion generated to date. Despite the fact that 97% of active climate scientists agree that the planet is warming as a result of human greenhouse gas emission, only 42% of the U.S. population agrees (Pew Research, 2013). In the face of these challenges, much of the work that the Union of Concerned Scientists does to translate climate impacts assessments has shifted to visuals, animations, and videos that people can relate to and connect with more readily. In this session we will share some of the general design features, discuss target audiences, and outline production limitations of several local stories involving videos and animations, as well as present some recent infographics. One example of this work are case studies that focus on sea level rise and involve a local personality who can speak to climate impacts at the community level. We understand the power of visual images and stories in creating messages that stick, and we use this in designing animations that explain the

  20. People as sensors: mass media and local temperature influence climate change discussion on Twitter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Molodtsova, T.; Stepchenkova, S.

    2014-12-01

    We examined whether people living under significant temperature anomalies connect their sensory experiences to climate change and the role that media plays in this process. We used Twitter messages containing words "climate change" and "global warming" as the indicator of attention that public pays to the issue. Specifically, the goals were: (1) to investigate whether people immediately notice significant local weather anomalies and connect them to climate change and (2) to examine the role of mass media in this process. Over 2 million tweets were collected for a two-year period (2012 - 2013) and were assigned to 157 urban areas in the continental USA (Figure 1). Geographical locations of the tweets were identified with a geolocation resolving algorithm based the profile of the users. Daily number of tweets (tweeting rate) was computed for 157 conterminous USA urban areas and adjusted for data acquisition errors. The USHCN daily minimum and maximum temperatures were obtained for the station locations closest to the centers of the urban areas and the 1981-2010 30-year temperature mean and standard deviation were used as the climate normals. For the analysis, we computed the following indices for each day of 2012 - 2013 period: standardized temperature anomaly, absolute standardized temperature anomaly, and extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies for each urban zone. The extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies were then transformed into country-level values that represent the number of people living in extreme temperature conditions. The rate of tweeting on climate change was regressed on the time variables, number of climate change publications in the mass media, and temperature. In the majority of regression models, the mass media and temperature variables were significant at the pmedia acts as a mediator in the relationship between local weather and climate change discourse intensity. Our analysis of Twitter data confirmed that the public is able to

  1. Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, J A; Olson, S H

    2006-01-01

    The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

  2. Using wood products to mitigate climate change: External costs and structural change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathre, Roger; Gustavsson, Leif [Ecotechnology, Mid Sweden University, 831 25 Oestersund (Sweden)

    2009-02-15

    In this study we examine the use of wood products as a means to mitigate climate change. We describe the life cycle of wood products including forest growth, wood harvest and processing, and product use and disposal, focusing on the multiple roles of wood as both material and fuel. We present a comparative case study of a building constructed with either a wood or a reinforced concrete frame. We find that the production of wood building material uses less energy and emits less carbon than the production of reinforced concrete material. We compare the relative cost of the two building methods without environmental taxation, under the current Swedish industrial energy taxation regime, and in scenarios that incorporate estimates of the full social cost of carbon emission. We find that the inclusion of climate-related external costs improves the economic standing of wood construction vis-a-vis concrete construction. We conclude that policy instruments that internalise the external costs of carbon emission should encourage a structural change toward the increased use of sustainably produced wood products. (author)

  3. Workshop in economics - the problem of climate change benefit-cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosobud, R.F.

    1992-01-01

    Could benefit-cost analysis play a larger role in the discussion of policies to deal with the greenhouse effect? The paper also investigates the causes of this lack of influence. Selected forms of benefit-cost research are probed, particularly the critical discussions raised by this type of research, in an effort to suggest where the chances of greater acceptance lie. The paper begins by discussing the search for an appropriate policy: optimal, targeted, or incremental. It then describes the work being done in specifying and estimating climate change damage relationships. A consideration of the work being done in specifying and estimating abatement (both mitigation and adaptation) cost relationships follows. Finally, the paper ends with an examination of the search for the appropriate policy instrument. International and methodological concerns cut across these areas and are discussed in each section. This paper concludes that there seem to be a number of reasons that benefit-cost results play only a limited role in policy development. There is some evidence that the growing interest in market-based approaches to climate change policy and to other environmental control matters is a sign of increased acceptance. Suggestions about research directions are made throughout this paper

  4. Impacts of East Asian Sulfate Aerosols on Local and Remote Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols exert significant climate forcing, which increases with emissions following trends of growing population and industry. Globally, aerosols cause a net cooling, counteracting greenhouse gas warming; however, regional impacts vary since emissions are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. While European and North American emissions have decreased in recent decades, Asian, particularly East Asian, emissions continued to rise into the 21st century. In addition to links between Asian anthropogenic aerosols and significant local climate impacts - for example, changes to the Asian monsoon system - studies have also shown influences on remote climate. Sulfate aerosols are particularly important for East Asia, remaining at constant levels higher than column burdens of other aerosol species. If a concerted effort - as laid out by government policies aiming to improve air quality - is made, the effects of anthropogenic aerosols (due to their short atmospheric lifetime) could be quickly reversed. Thus, it is vital to understand the climate impact aerosols have had up to now to aid in determining what will happen in the future. We use transient climate modelling experiments with the Community Earth System Model to investigate the impacts of East Asian sulfate aerosols in the present day compared to 1950 (i.e. before rapid industrialisation in this region), focusing on dynamical mechanisms leading to the occurrence of such impacts, and how their influence can spread to remote regions. We find, in addition to significant monsoon impacts, noticeable shifts in large-scale circulation features such as the ITCZ and the Pacific Walker cell. Through diabatic heating responses, changes to upper-level atmospheric dynamics are evident, leading to downstream effects on surface climate - for example, surface cooling over Europe. Understanding of these impacts is vital when considering how the good intentions of air quality improvement might inadvertently have

  5. Climate risks to agriculture in Amazon arc-of-deforestation create incentives to conserve local forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, M. H.; Fleck, L. C.; Cohn, A.; Abrahão, G. M.; Brando, P. M.; Coe, M. T.; Fu, R.; Lawrence, D.; Pires, G. F.; Pousa, R.; Soares, B. Filh

    2017-12-01

    Intensification of agriculture is a necessary condition for sustainably meeting global food demands without increasing deforestation. In southern Amazonia, a region that produces 7% of the world's soybeans, double cropping has become the preferred system for the intensification of agriculture, which is essentially rainfed. Rainy season is shortening in the region, due to climate change, and is predicted to become shorter in the future. The climate risks are worsened by the region's land use change. This increases the climate risk and even threat the intensive double-cropping agriculture that is currently practiced in that region, with potential perverse consequences to everyone. Repeated or widespread climate-driven crop failure could prompt a return to the single cropping system or even cropland abandonment. A shift to single cropping could decrease the agriculture output in this critical region, push up global food prices and heighten incentives to convert regional ecosystems to agricultural land. Further agricultural expansion into ecosystems would increase climate change. The more forest lost, the higher the climate risk will be, due to climate feedbacks from deforestation itself, triggering a spiraling decline of the rainforests and rainfall over southern Amazonia and other critical agricultural regions known to depend on the forests of Amazonia for rainfall. We show that there are economic and social reasons to preserve the forests, and it is in the best interest of the agribusiness, local governments and people, to conserve the remaining forests. The adaptation and mitigation needs, and policies to reconcile production and protection while mitigating supply chains risks are also discussed.

  6. Locally optimal control under unknown dynamics with learnt cost function: application to industrial robot positioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guérin, Joris; Gibaru, Olivier; Thiery, Stéphane; Nyiri, Eric

    2017-01-01

    Recent methods of Reinforcement Learning have enabled to solve difficult, high dimensional, robotic tasks under unknown dynamics using iterative Linear Quadratic Gaussian control theory. These algorithms are based on building a local time-varying linear model of the dynamics from data gathered through interaction with the environment. In such tasks, the cost function is often expressed directly in terms of the state and control variables so that it can be locally quadratized to run the algorithm. If the cost is expressed in terms of other variables, a model is required to compute the cost function from the variables manipulated. We propose a method to learn the cost function directly from the data, in the same way as for the dynamics. This way, the cost function can be defined in terms of any measurable quantity and thus can be chosen more appropriately for the task to be carried out. With our method, any sensor information can be used to design the cost function. We demonstrate the efficiency of this method through simulating, with the V-REP software, the learning of a Cartesian positioning task on several industrial robots with different characteristics. The robots are controlled in joint space and no model is provided a priori. Our results are compared with another model free technique, consisting in writing the cost function as a state variable.

  7. Cost of a roller skating rink to the local accident and emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayeem, N; Shires, S E; Porter, J E

    1990-01-01

    A 14 month retrospective study was undertaken to determine the cost implications of the opening of a roller skating rink to the local hospital accident and emergency department (A and E). A total of 398 patients attended following injury at the roller skating rink, of whom 384 were included in the study. The estimated cost of their injuries was determined by the hospital accounts department. The average cost per patient attending the A and E department following roller skating injury was about 100 pounds. The total cost to the A and E department of all injuries sustained at the rink over this period was 38,412 pounds. The cost implications of opening a roller skating rink for the A and E department are considerable. If proposals for self-budgeting are applied, A and E departments will have to seek additional funding if such leisure facilities are opened in their vicinity. PMID:2097020

  8. An estimated cost of lost climate regulation services caused by thawing of the Arctic cryosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Goodstein, Eban S; Huntington, Henry P

    2013-12-01

    Recent and expected changes in Arctic sea ice cover, snow cover, and methane emissions from permafrost thaw are likely to result in large positive feedbacks to climate warming. There is little recognition of the significant loss in economic value that the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, snow, and permafrost will impose on humans. Here, we examine how sea ice and snow cover, as well as methane emissions due to changes in permafrost, may potentially change in the future, to year 2100, and how these changes may feed back to influence the climate. Between 2010 and 2100, the annual costs from the extra warming due to a decline in albedo related to losses of sea ice and snow, plus each year's methane emissions, cumulate to a present value cost to society ranging from US$7.5 trillion to US$91.3 trillion. The estimated range reflects uncertainty associated with (1) the extent of warming-driven positive climate feedbacks from the thawing cryosphere and (2) the expected economic damages per metric ton of CO2 equivalents that will be imposed by added warming, which depend, especially, on the choice of discount rate. The economic uncertainty is much larger than the uncertainty in possible future feedback effects. Nonetheless, the frozen Arctic provides immense services to all nations by cooling the earth's temperature: the cryosphere is an air conditioner for the planet. As the Arctic thaws, this critical, climate-stabilizing ecosystem service is being lost. This paper provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of some of those lost services.

  9. The evolving local social contract for managing climate and disaster risk in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christoplos, Ian; Ngoan, Le Duc; Sen, Le Thi Hoa; Huong, Nguyen Thi Thanh; Lindegaard, Lily Salloum

    2017-07-01

    How do disasters shape local government legitimacy in relation to managing climate- and disaster-related risks? This paper looks at how local authorities in Central Vietnam perceive their social contract for risk reduction, including the partial merging of responsibilities for disaster risk management with new plans for and investments in climate change adaptation and broader socioeconomic development. The findings indicate that extreme floods and storms constitute critical junctures that stimulate genuine institutional change. Local officials are proud of their strengthened role in disaster response and they are eager to boost investment in infrastructure. They have struggled to reinforce their legitimacy among their constituents, but given the shifting roles of the state, private sector, and civil society, and the undiminished emphasis on high-risk development models, their responsibilities for responding to emerging climate change scenarios are increasingly nebulous. The past basis for legitimacy is no longer valid, but tomorrow's social contract is not yet defined. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  10. Future local and remote influences on Mediterranean ozone air quality and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Steve; Martin, Maria Val; Emmons, Louisa; Rap, Alex; Heald, Colette; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean region is expected to display large increases in population over the coming decades, and to exhibit strong sensitivity to projected climate change, with increasing frequency of extreme summer temperatures and decreases in precipitation. Understanding of how these changes will affect atmospheric composition in the region is limited. The eastern Mediterranean basin has been shown to exhibit a pronounced summertime local maximum in tropospheric ozone, which impacts both local air quality and the atmospheric radiation balance. In summer, the region is subject to import of pollution from Northern Europe in the boundary layer and lower troposphere, from North American sources in the large-scale westerly flow of the free mid and upper-troposphere, as well as import of pollution lofted in the Asian monsoon and carried west to the eastern Mediterranean in anticyclonic flow in the upper troposphere over north Africa. In addition, interactions with the land-surface through biogenic emission sources and dry deposition play important roles in the Mediterranean ozone budget. Here we use the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate how tropospheric ozone in the Mediterranean region responds to climate, land surface and global emissions changes between present day and 2050. We simulate climate and atmospheric composition for the year 2050, based on greenhouse gas abundances, trace gas and aerosol emissions and land cover and use from two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5), designed for use by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) experiments in support of the IPCC. By comparing these simulations with a present-day scenario, we investigate the effects of predicted changes in climate and emissions on air quality and climate forcing over the Mediterranean region. The simulations suggest decreases in boundary layer ozone and sulfate aerosol throughout the tropospheric column over the Mediterranean

  11. Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeola, Abiodun M; Botai, Joel O; Rautenbach, Hannes; Adisa, Omolola M; Ncongwane, Katlego P; Botai, Christina M; Adebayo-Ojo, Temitope C

    2017-11-08

    The north-eastern parts of South Africa, comprising the Limpopo Province, have recorded a sudden rise in the rate of malaria morbidity and mortality in the 2017 malaria season. The epidemiological profiles of malaria, as well as other vector-borne diseases, are strongly associated with climate and environmental conditions. A retrospective understanding of the relationship between climate and the occurrence of malaria may provide insight into the dynamics of the disease's transmission and its persistence in the north-eastern region. In this paper, the association between climatic variables and the occurrence of malaria was studied in the Mutale local municipality in South Africa over a period of 19-year. Time series analysis was conducted on monthly climatic variables and monthly malaria cases in the Mutale municipality for the period of 1998-2017. Spearman correlation analysis was performed and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed. Microsoft Excel was used for data cleaning, and statistical software R was used to analyse the data and develop the model. Results show that both climatic variables' and malaria cases' time series exhibited seasonal patterns, showing a number of peaks and fluctuations. Spearman correlation analysis indicated that monthly total rainfall, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean average temperature, and mean relative humidity were significantly and positively correlated with monthly malaria cases in the study area. Regression analysis showed that monthly total rainfall and monthly mean minimum temperature ( R ² = 0.65), at a two-month lagged effect, are the most significant climatic predictors of malaria transmission in Mutale local municipality. A SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model fitted with only malaria cases has a prediction performance of about 51%, and the SARIMAX (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model with climatic variables as exogenous factors has a prediction performance of about 72% in

  12. ''Measuring the Costs of Climate Change Policies''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montgomery, W. D.; Smith, A. E.; Biggar, S. L.; Bernstein, P.M.

    2003-05-09

    Studies of the costs of climate change policies have utilized a variety of measures or metrics for summarizing costs. The leading economic models have utilized GNP, GDP, the ''area under a marginal cost curve,'' the discounted present value of consumption, and a welfare measure taken directly from the utility function of the model's representative agent (the ''Equivalent Variation''). Even when calculated using a single model, these metrics do not necessarily give similar magnitudes of costs or even rank policies consistently. This paper discusses in non-technical terms the economic concepts lying behind each concept, the theoretical basis for expecting each measure to provide a consistent ranking of policies, and the reasons why different measures provide different rankings. It identifies a method of calculating the ''Equivalent Variation'' as theoretically superior to the other cost metrics in ranking policies. When regulators put forward new economic or regulatory policies, there is a need to compare the costs and benefits of these new policies to existing policies and other alternatives to determine which policy is most cost-effective. For command and control policies, it is quite difficult to compute costs, but for more market-based policies, economists have had a great deal of success employing general equilibrium models to assess a policy's costs. Not all cost measures, however, arrive at the same ranking. Furthermore, cost measures can produce contradictory results for a specific policy. These problems make it difficult for a policy-maker to determine the best policy. For a cost measures to be of value, one would like to be confident of two things. First one wants to be sure whether the policy is a winner or loser. Second, one wants to be confident that a measure produces the correct policy ranking. That is, one wants to have confidence in a policy measure's ability to correctly rank

  13. An Analysis of Benefit and Cost of Local Chicken Production By the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Newcastle disease (ND) has high seroprevalence rate and inflicts heavy economic losses on poultry as often the case in rural poultry production. This study examined the socialeconomic characteristics of the respondents and the benefit/ cost analysis of rural chicken farmers in two local council areas of Kogi State of igeria ...

  14. No Child Left Behind and Administrative Costs: A Resource Dependence Study of Local School Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neely, Stephen R.

    2015-01-01

    This study considers the impact of federal funding on the administrative expenditures of local school districts since the passage of the No-Child-Left-Behind (NCLB) Act of 2001. Under NCLB, federal education funds were made contingent upon a variety of accountability and reporting standards, creating new administrative costs and challenges for…

  15. An analysis of the 'costs and effectiveness' of post-mastectomy local-regional radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, L.B.; Prosnitz, L.R.; Hardenbergh, P.H.; Winer, E.T.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: To estimate the 'cost/effectiveness' ratio for post-mastectomy local-regional radiation therapy (LR-XRT) for patients with breast cancer. As the risk of local-regional recurrence (LRR) is related to the number of positive axillary lymph nodes, the cost/effectiveness ratio of LR-XRT was assessed for a variable number of positive axillary nodes. For overall survival (OS), the cost per additional life-year is estimated as a function of follow-up duration. Methods/Assumptions: Literature data indicate that the risk of LRR is related to the number of positive axillary nodes (e.g. Fowble, Kuske). For example, the LRR rate is ∼10% for patients with negative nodes, increasing to ∼40% for patients with ≥4 positive nodes. Such data are used to linearly relate the number of positive nodes with the risk of LRR. Additional assumptions include: RT reduces the risk of LRR by 67%; local recurrences are treated with exision/biopsy, LR-XRT and systemic chemotherapy; half of the local recurrences are controlled locally and half will require additional salvage treatment with surgery or chemotherapy. The 5, 10 and 15 yr improvements in OS provided by LR-XRT are estimated to be 3, 7, and 10%, respectively, based on the literature (Overgaard, Ragaz, Klefstrom, Rutqvist). For each year following LR-XRT, the accrued life-years gained are estimated from the published survival curves. Professional and technical charges are used as a surrogate for costs, as follows (in thousands): LR-XRT-15; evaluation of recurrence-2; biopsy plus pathology-1; resection plus pathology-7, chemotherapy-10. Results: The cost per LRR prevented with the addition of routine post-mastectomy LR-XRT is shown, as a function of the number of positive axillary nodes. The cost per additional life-year gained with LR-XRT, as a function of follow-up duration, is shown. With increasing follow-up, the cost per life-year gained decreases as the additional life-years accrue. Conclusions: The cost per LRR

  16. Urban Heat Islands and Their Mitigation vs. Local Impacts of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taha, H.

    2007-12-01

    Urban heat islands and their mitigation take on added significance, both negative and positive, when viewed from a climate-change perspective. In negative terms, urban heat islands can act as local exacerbating factors, or magnifying lenses, to the effects of regional and large-scale climate perturbations and change. They can locally impact meteorology, energy/electricity generation and use, thermal environment (comfort and heat waves), emissions of air pollutants, photochemistry, and air quality. In positive terms, on the other hand, mitigation of urban heat islands (via urban surface modifications and control of man-made heat, for example) can potentially have a beneficial effect of mitigating the local negative impacts of climate change. In addition, mitigation of urban heat islands can, in itself, contribute to preventing regional and global climate change, even if modestly, by helping reduce CO2 emissions from power plants and other sources as a result of decreased energy use for cooling (both direct and indirect) and reducing the rates of meteorology-dependent emissions of air pollutants. This presentation will highlight aspects and characteristics of heat islands, their mitigation, their modeling and quantification techniques, and recent advances in meso-urban modeling of California (funded by the California Energy Commission). In particular, the presentation will focus on results from quantitative, modeling-based analyses of the potential benefits of heat island mitigation in 1) reducing point- and area-source emissions of CO2, NOx, and VOC as a result of reduced cooling energy demand and ambient/surface temperatures, 2) reducing evaporative and fugitive hydrocarbon emissions as a result of lowered temperatures, 3) reducing biogenic hydrocarbon emissions from existing vegetative cover, 4) slowing the rates of tropospheric/ground-level ozone formation and/or accumulation in the urban boundary layer, and 5) helping improve air quality. Quantitative estimates

  17. Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Expected Rainfall Changes on Cost-Effective Adaptation of Water Systems to Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.; Weikard, H.P.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2015-01-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

  18. Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard

    2017-12-11

    The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

  19. Global climate change - a feasibility perspective of its effect on human health at a local scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Bernardi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available There are two responses to global climate change. First, mitigation, which actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester or store carbon in the short-term, and make development choices that will lead to low emissions in the long-term. Second, adaptation, which involves adjustments in natural or human systems and behaviours that reduce the risks posed by climate change to people’s lives and livelihoods. While the two are conceptually distinct, in practice they are very much interdependent, and both are equally urgent from a healthy population perspective. To define the policies to mitigate and to adapt to global climate change, data and information at all scales are the basic requirement for both developed and developing countries. However, as compared to mitigation, adaptation is an immediate concern for low-income countries and for small islands states, where the reduction of the emissions from greenhouse gases is not among their priorities. Adaptation is also highly location specific and the required ground data to assess the impacts of climate change on human health are not available. Climate data at high spatial resolution can be derived by various downscaling methods using historical and real-time meteorological observations but, particularly in low-income countries, the outputs are limited by the lack of ground data at the local level. In many of these countries, a negative trend in the number of meteorological stations as compared as to before 2000 is evident, while remotelysensed imagery becomes more and more available at high spatial and temporal resolution. The final consequence is that climate change policy options in the developing world are greatly jeopardized.

  20. [A totally implantable venous access device. Implantation in general or local anaesthesia? A retrospective cost analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuld, J; Richter, S; Moussavian, M R; Kollmar, O; Schilling, M K

    2009-08-01

    Implantation of venous access port systems can be performed in local or general anesthesia. In spite of the increasing rate of interventionally implanted systems, the surgical cut-down represents a safe alternative. Thus, the question arises whether--in context to the increasing health-economic pressure--open implantation in general anesthesia is still a feasible alternative to implantation in local anesthesia regarding OR efficiency and costs. In a retrospective analysis, 993 patients receiving a totally implantable venous access device between 2001 and 2007 were evaluated regarding OR utilization, turnover times, intraoperative data and costs. Implantations in local (LA) and general anesthesia (GA) were compared. GA was performed in 762 cases (76.6 %), LA was performed in 231 patients (23.3 %). Mean operation time was similar in both groups (LA 47.27 +/- 1.40 min vs. GA 45.41 +/- 0.75 min, p = 0.244). Patients receiving local anesthesia had a significantly shorter stay in the OR unit (LA 95.9 +/- 1.78 min vs. GA 105.92 +/- 0.92 min; p cut (LA 39.57 +/- 0.69 min vs. GA 50.46 +/- 0.52 min; p material costs were significantly lower in the LA group compared with the GA group (LA: 400.72 +/- 8.25 euro vs. GA: 482.86 +/- 6.23 euro; p systems in local anesthesia is superior in comparison to the implantation under general anesthesia regarding procedural times in the OR unit and costs. With the same operation duration, but less personnel and material expenditure, implantation in local anesthesia offers a potential economic advantage by permitting faster changing times. Implantation in GA only should be performed at a special request by the patient or in difficult venous conditions. Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart.New York.

  1. Climate change and the effects of dengue upon Australia: An analysis of health impacts and costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newth, D; Gunasekera, D

    2010-01-01

    Projected regional warming and climate change analysis and health impact studies suggest that Australia is potentially vulnerable to increased occurrence of vector borne diseases such as dengue fever. Expansion of the dengue fever host, Aedes aegypti could potentially pose a significant public health risk. To manage such health risks, there is a growing need to focus on adaptive risk management strategies. In this paper, we combine analyses from climate, biophysical and economic models with a high resolution population model for disease spread, the EpiCast model to analyse the health impacts and costs of spread of dengue fever. We demonstrate the applicability of EpiCast as a decision support tool to evaluate mitigation strategies to manage the public health risks associated with shifts in the distribution of dengue fever in Australia.

  2. Climate change and the effects of dengue upon Australia: An analysis of health impacts and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newth, D; Gunasekera, D, E-mail: david.newth@csiro.a [CSIRO Centre for Complex Systems Science, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, CSIRO, GPO Box 3023, Canberra ACT 2601 (Australia)

    2010-08-15

    Projected regional warming and climate change analysis and health impact studies suggest that Australia is potentially vulnerable to increased occurrence of vector borne diseases such as dengue fever. Expansion of the dengue fever host, Aedes aegypti could potentially pose a significant public health risk. To manage such health risks, there is a growing need to focus on adaptive risk management strategies. In this paper, we combine analyses from climate, biophysical and economic models with a high resolution population model for disease spread, the EpiCast model to analyse the health impacts and costs of spread of dengue fever. We demonstrate the applicability of EpiCast as a decision support tool to evaluate mitigation strategies to manage the public health risks associated with shifts in the distribution of dengue fever in Australia.

  3. A qualitative assessment of climate adaptation options and some estimates of adaptation costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ierland, E.C.; De Bruin, K.; Dellink, R.B.; Ruijs, A.

    2007-02-01

    The Routeplanner project aims to provide a 'systematic assessment' of potential adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands in connection to spatial planning. The study is the result of a policy oriented project that took place between May and September 2006. The aim of the current study is to provide a 'qualitative assessment' of the direct and indirect effects of adaptation options and to provide an assessment of some of the costs and benefits of adaptation options. The present report presents and summarizes the results of all phases of the study: an inventory of adaptation options, a qualitative assessment of the effects of the adaptation options for the Netherlands in the long run, a database which allows to rank the various options according to a set of criteria and a relative ranking on the basis of these criteria. Finally, the report also contains the best available information on costs and benefits of various adaptation options. However, while conducting the study the project team observed that reliable information in this respect is in many cases still lacking and an urgent need exists for more detailed studies on costs and benefits of adaptation options and the design of the best options to cope with climate change

  4. Comparing climate and cost impacts of reference levels for reducing emissions from deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busch, Jonah [Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA (United States); Strassburg, Bernardo [Center for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ (United Kingdom); Cattaneo, Andrea [Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, MA 02540-1644 (United States); Lubowski, Ruben [Environmental Defense Fund, 1875 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC (United States); Bruner, Aaron; Rice, Richard; Boltz, Frederick [Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA (United States); Creed, Anna; Ashton, Ralph, E-mail: jbusch@conservation.or [Terrestrial Carbon Group, 900 17th Street NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC (United States)

    2009-10-15

    The climate benefit and economic cost of an international mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) will depend on the design of reference levels for crediting emission reductions. We compare the impacts of six proposed reference level designs on emission reduction levels and on cost per emission reduction using a stylized partial equilibrium model (the open source impacts of REDD incentives spreadsheet; OSIRIS). The model explicitly incorporates national incentives to participate in an international REDD mechanism as well as international leakage of deforestation emissions. Our results show that a REDD mechanism can provide cost-efficient climate change mitigation benefits under a broad range of reference level designs. We find that the most effective reference level designs balance incentives to reduce historically high deforestation emissions with incentives to maintain historically low deforestation emissions. Estimates of emission reductions under REDD depend critically on the degree to which demand for tropical frontier agriculture generates leakage. This underscores the potential importance to REDD of complementary strategies to supply agricultural needs outside of the forest frontier.

  5. Comparing climate and cost impacts of reference levels for reducing emissions from deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busch, Jonah; Strassburg, Bernardo; Cattaneo, Andrea; Lubowski, Ruben; Bruner, Aaron; Rice, Richard; Boltz, Frederick; Creed, Anna; Ashton, Ralph

    2009-01-01

    The climate benefit and economic cost of an international mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) will depend on the design of reference levels for crediting emission reductions. We compare the impacts of six proposed reference level designs on emission reduction levels and on cost per emission reduction using a stylized partial equilibrium model (the open source impacts of REDD incentives spreadsheet; OSIRIS). The model explicitly incorporates national incentives to participate in an international REDD mechanism as well as international leakage of deforestation emissions. Our results show that a REDD mechanism can provide cost-efficient climate change mitigation benefits under a broad range of reference level designs. We find that the most effective reference level designs balance incentives to reduce historically high deforestation emissions with incentives to maintain historically low deforestation emissions. Estimates of emission reductions under REDD depend critically on the degree to which demand for tropical frontier agriculture generates leakage. This underscores the potential importance to REDD of complementary strategies to supply agricultural needs outside of the forest frontier.

  6. Investigating attitudes to hydrogen refuelling facilities and the social cost to local residents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Garra, Tanya; Mourato, Susana; Pearson, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Vehicles fuelled by hydrogen (H 2 ) have attracted increasing attention because of their potentially enhanced environmental profiles. Their penetration into the vehicle stock will be influenced by the spread of refuelling facilities. This study investigates local attitudes towards the proposed installation of H 2 storage facilities at existing refuelling stations throughout London. Using multinomial logit analysis, we identify the determinants of attitudes. Results suggest that residents living very close to a proposed H 2 facility are less likely to be opposed than residents living 200-500 m away. Opposition appears to be determined by a lack of trust in safety regulations, non-environmental attitudes, and concerns about the existing local refuelling station. The social cost to local residents of a local H 2 storage facility was estimated using a method developed by Atkinson et al. [2004. 'Amenity' or 'eyesore'? Negative willingness to pay for options to replace electricity transmission towers. Applied Economics Letters 11(4), 203-208], which elicits the amount of time respondents are willing to commit to oppose a new facility development. Using the leisure rate of time, the social cost is estimated at just under Pounds 14 per local opposed resident. Add to this the WTP to support opposition efforts by a local group, and the value comes to just under Pounds 25 per opposed resident

  7. Effect of Climate Change and Transaction Costs on Performance of a Groundwater Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, H. F.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    With surface water resources becoming increasingly stressed, groundwater extraction, much of it unmanaged, has increased globally. Incentive-based policies, such as the cap-and-trade system, have been shown to be useful in the context of groundwater management. Previous research has shown that optimal groundwater markets (i.e. incentives-based policy) outperforms water quotas (command and control policy) with regards to both economic and environmental outcomes. In this work, we investigate whether these advantages of a water market over water quotas hold when assumptions of perfect information are violated due to climate change and hydrogeologic heterogeneity. We also assess whether the benefits of a cap-and-trade system outweigh the costs of implementing it, and how changes in future climate affect the performance a cap-and trade system. We use a sub-basin of the Republican River Basin, overlying the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, as a case study. We develop a multi-agent system model where individual benefits of each self-interested agent are maximized subject to bounds on irrigation requirements and water use permits. This economic model is coupled with a calibrated physically based groundwater model for the study region. Results show that permitting farmers to trade results in increased economic benefits and reduced environmental violations. However, the benefits of trading are dependent on the total allocations and the resulting level of water demand. We quantify third party impacts and environmental externalities for different water allocations, and highlight the unequal distributional effects of uniform water allocations resulting in `winners' and `losers'. The study reveals that high transaction costs can reduce the efficiency of the cap-and-trade system even below that of water quotas. Future changes in climate are shown to significantly influence the dynamics of the water market, and emphasize the need to address climate

  8. Cost-effective smoke-free multiunit housing media campaigns: connecting with local communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modayil, Mary V; Consolacion, Theodora B; Isler, Jonathan; Soria, Sandra; Stevens, Colleen

    2011-11-01

    Presented are cost-effective paid media strategies to educate Californians to advocate for stronger smoke-free multiunit housing (SF-MUH) policies between 2006 and 2008. Included is a summary of general market and specific ethnic market costs that correspond to SF-MUH attitudes and home smoking bans. Statewide questionnaires indicated that half of the intended general market saw an antitobacco TV ad and half of the intended ethnic markets heard radio ads. Analyses indicated that it cost $0.67 and $0.78 per person to see Caution Tape and Apartment TV ads, respectively. Slightly higher per capita costs corresponded with positive attitudes toward SF-MUH: $0.87 for Caution Tape and $1.00 for Apartment. Lessons learned from this campaign included effectiveness of specific ads in ethnic markets, impact on SF-MUH work plan policy objectives, and the need for collaborations among state and local partners throughout the message development process.

  9. Managing electricity procurement cost and risk by a local distribution company

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chikeung Woo; Karimov, R.I.; Horowitz, I.

    2004-01-01

    A local electricity distribution company (LDC) can satisfy some of its future electricity requirements through self-generation and volatile spot markets, and the remainder through fixed-price forward contracts that will reduce its exposure to the inherent risk of spot-price volatility. A theoretical framework is developed for determining the forward-contract purchase that minimizes the LDCs expected procurement cost, subject to a cost-exposure constraint. The answers to the questions of ''What to buy?'' and ''How to buy?'' are illustrated using an example of a hypothetical LDC that is based on a municipal utility in Florida. It is shown that the LDCs procurement decision is consistent with least-cost procurement subject to a cost-exposure constraint, and that an internet-based multi-round auction can produce competitive price quotes for its desired forward purchase. (author)

  10. Managing electricity procurement cost and risk by a local distribution company

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.-K.; Karimov, R.I.; Horowitz, Ira

    2004-01-01

    A local electricity distribution company (LDC) can satisfy some of its future electricity requirements through self-generation and volatile spot markets, and the remainder through fixed-price forward contracts that will reduce its exposure to the inherent risk of spot-price volatility. A theoretical framework is developed for determining the forward-contract purchase that minimizes the LDCs expected procurement cost, subject to a cost-exposure constraint. The answers to the questions of 'What to buy?' and 'How to buy?' are illustrated using an example of a hypothetical LDC that is based on a municipal utility in Florida. It is shown that the LDCs procurement decision is consistent with least-cost procurement subject to a cost-exposure constraint, and that an internet-based multi-round auction can produce competitive price quotes for its desired forward purchase

  11. Urban local climate zone mapping and apply in urban environment study

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Shan; Zhang, Yunwei; Zhang, Jili

    2018-02-01

    The city’s local climate zone (LCZ) was considered to be a powerful tool for urban climate mapping. But for cities in different countries and regions, the LCZ division methods and results were different, thus targeted researches should be performed. In the current work, a LCZ mapping method was proposed, which is convenient in operation and city planning oriented. In this proposed method, the local climate zoning types were adjusted firstly, according to the characteristics of Chinese city, that more tall buildings and high density. Then the classification method proposed by WUDAPT based on remote sensing data was performed on Xi’an city, as an example, for LCZ mapping. Combined with the city road network, a reasonable expression of the dividing results was provided, to adapt to the characteristics in city planning that land parcels are usually recognized as the basic unit. The proposed method was validated against the actual land use and construction data that surveyed in Xi’an, with results indicating the feasibility of the proposed method for urban LCZ mapping in China.

  12. An Economic Assessment of Local Farm Multi-Purpose Surface Water Retention Systems under Future Climate Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela Berry

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Regions dependent on agricultural production are concerned about the uncertainty associated with climate change. Extreme drought and flooding events are predicted to occur with greater frequency, requiring mitigation strategies to reduce their negative impacts. Multi-purpose local farm water retention systems can reduce water stress during drought periods by supporting irrigation. The retention systems’ capture of excess spring runoff and extreme rainfall events also reduces flood potential downstream. Retention systems may also be used for biomass production and nutrient retention. A sub-watershed scale retention system was analysed using a dynamic simulation model to predict the economic advantages in the future. Irrigated crops using water from the downstream reservoir at Pelly’s Lake, Manitoba, Canada, experienced a net decrease in gross margin in the future due to the associated irrigation and reservoir infrastructure costs. However, the multi-purpose benefits of the retention system at Pelly’s Lake of avoided flood damages, nutrient retention, carbon sequestration, and biomass production provide an economic benefit of $25,507.00/hectare of retention system/year. Multi-purpose retention systems under future climate uncertainty provide economic and environmental gains when used to avoid flood damages, for nutrient retention and carbon sequestration, and biomass production. The revenue gained from these functions can support farmers willing to invest in irrigation while providing economic and environmental benefits to the region.

  13. Cost Optimization of Water Resources in Pernambuco, Brazil: Valuing Future Infrastructure and Climate Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Ipsita; Josset, Laureline; Lall, Upmanu; Cavalcanti e Silva, Erik; Cordeiro Possas, José Marcelo; Cauás Asfora, Marcelo

    2017-04-01

    Optimal management of water resources is paramount in semi-arid regions to limit strains on the society and economy due to limited water availability. This problem is likely to become even more recurrent as droughts are projected to intensify in the coming years, causing increasing stresses to the water supply in the concerned areas. The state of Pernambuco, in the Northeast Brazil is one such case, where one of the largest reservoir, Jucazinho, has been at approximately 1% capacity throughout 2016, making infrastructural challenges in the region very real. To ease some of the infrastructural stresses and reduce vulnerabilities of the water system, a new source of water from Rio São Francisco is currently under development. Till its development, water trucks have been regularly mandated to cover water deficits, but at a much higher cost, thus endangering the financial sustainability of the region. In this paper, we propose to evaluate the sustainability of the considered water system by formulating an optimization problem and determine the optimal operations to be conducted. We start with a comparative study of the current and future infrastructures capabilities to face various climate. We show that while the Rio Sao Francisco project mitigates the problems, both implementations do not prevent failure and require the reliance on water trucks during prolonged droughts. We also study the cost associated with the provision of water to the municipalities for several streamflow forecasts. In particular, we investigate the value of climate predictions to adapt operational decisions by comparing the results with a fixed policy derived from historical data. We show that the use of climate information permits the reduction of the water deficit and reduces overall operational costs. We conclude with a discussion on the potential of the approach to evaluate future infrastructure developments. This study is funded by the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), and in

  14. Modeling Electricity Sector Vulnerabilities and Costs Associated with Water Temperatures Under Scenarios of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Newmark, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    The reliability of the power sector is highly vulnerable to variability in the availability and temperature of water resources, including those that might result from potential climatic changes or from competition from other users. In the past decade, power plants throughout the United States have had to shut down or curtail generation due to a lack of available water or from elevated water temperatures. These disruptions in power plant performance can have negative impacts on energy security and can be costly to address. Analysis of water-related vulnerabilities requires modeling capabilities with high spatial and temporal resolution. This research provides an innovative approach to energy-water modeling by evaluating the costs and reliability of a power sector region under policy and climate change scenarios that affect water resource availability and temperatures. This work utilizes results from a spatially distributed river water temperature model coupled with a thermoelectric power plant model to provide inputs into an electricity production cost model that operates on a high spatial and temporal resolution. The regional transmission organization ISO-New England, which includes six New England states and over 32 Gigawatts of power capacity, is utilized as a case study. Hydrological data and power plant operations are analyzed over an eleven year period from 2000-2010 under four scenarios that include climate impacts on water resources and air temperatures as well as strict interpretations of regulations that can affect power plant operations due to elevated water temperatures. Results of these model linkages show how the power sector's reliability and economic performance can be affected by changes in water temperatures and water availability. The effective reliability and capacity value of thermal electric generators are quantified and discussed in the context of current as well as potential future water resource characteristics.

  15. Assessment of Costs for a Global Climate Fund Against Public Sector Disaster Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mechler, Reinhard; Pflug, Georg; Williges, Keith

    2013-04-01

    National governments are key actors in managing climate variability and change, yet, many countries, faced with exhausted tax bases, high levels of indebtedness and limited donor assistance, have been unable to raise sufficient and timely capital to replace or repair damaged assets and restore livelihoods following major disasters exacerbating the impacts of disaster shocks on poverty and development. For weather extremes, which form a subset of the adaptation challenge and are supposed to increase in intensity and frequency with a changing climate, we conduct an assessment of the costs of managing and financing today's public sector risks on a global scale for more than 180 countries. A countries financial vulnerability is defined as a function of its financial resilience and its exposure to disaster risk. While disaster risk is estimated in terms of asset loss distributions based on catastrophe modeling approaches, financial resilience is operationalized as the public sector's ability to pay for relief to the affected population and support the reconstruction of affected assets and infrastructure for a given event. We consider governments financially vulnerable to disasters if they cannot access sufficient funding after a disaster to cover their liabilities. We operationalize this concept by the term resource gap, which we define the net loss associated with a disaster event after exhausting all possible ex-post and ex ante financing sources. Extending this approach for all possible disaster events, the risk that a resource gap will occur over a given time-span can be calculated for each country individually and dependent on the risk level different risk instruments may have to be applied. Furthermore, our estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a "climate insurance fund" absorbing "high level" country risks exceeding the ability of any given country to pay in the case of an extreme event. Our estimates relate to today's climate, yet we suggest that

  16. Costs and Benefits to EU Member States of 2030 Climate and Energy Targets - February 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    Costs and Benefits to EU Member States of 2030 Climate and Energy Targets is based on analyses using the POLES-Enerdata model and presents an overview of the main European energy and climate policies: reduction of CO_2 emissions, development of renewable energies, and promotion of energy efficiency. The report looks forward to 2030 and beyond to evaluate possible targets and the goal of maintaining global temperature rise to 2 deg. C. This publication was produced by Enerdata's Global Energy Forecasting team, including the modelling and scenario analysis, within the framework of an external service contract to the UK's Department of Energy and Climate Change. This project looks ahead to 2030. To do this, scenarios were developed using the POLES-Enerdata model, a world energy-economy model that fully describes the energy system and associated GHG emissions. This report analyses the costs and benefits to all EU Member States under different scenarios of the level and type of EU targets defined within a 2030 climate and energy framework. Scenarios include progressively more stringent GHG targets in 2030 (40%, 50%, and 60% reductions compared to 1990), alternative assumptions on access to international credits (0%, 5% and 10% of 1990 emissions), the addition of RES burden shares by Member State, accelerated CCS commercial availability and reduced renewables learning rates. These are the sensitivities commissioned as part of this report; however, they are not a comprehensive range covering all possible outcomes that could arise in reality. What are the costs and benefits to Member States under different scenarios of the level and type of EU targets? The analysis assesses the benefits of different scenarios to improved air quality and health, diversity of energy supply, and reduced costs of meeting longer term emission reduction targets (notably the EU's commitment to reduce emissions by 80-95% by 2050). Relying on more low-carbon, domestic, or diversified sources of

  17. Climate agreements: Optimal taxation of fossil fuels and the distribution of costs and benefits across countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holtsmark, Bjart

    1997-12-31

    This report analyses the response of governments to a climate agreement that commits them to reduce their CO{sub 2} emissions. It develops a formula for optimal taxation of fossil fuels in open economies subject both to an emission constraint and a public budget constraint. The theory captures how national governments` behaviours are sensitive to the size of the benefits from revenue recycling and how these benefits adjust the distribution of abatement costs. The empirical part of the report illustrates the significance of the participating countries` current and potential fossil fuel taxation schemes and their roles in the fossil fuel markets. 23 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs.

  18. Coastal Hazards and Climate Change. A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wratt, D.; Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Allan, S.; Morgan, T.; Kenny, G.

    2004-05-01

    Climate change will not introduce any new types of coastal hazards, but it will affect existing hazards. Coastal hazards in many areas are expected to increase as a result of the effects of climate change. As development of coastal areas and property values increase, the potential impacts of coastal hazards increase. There is increasing confidence in the predictions of the effects of climate change. Sea level has risen in New Zealand by about 0.25 m since the mid-1800s (historical sea-level rise has been approximately 0.16 m per century), and this rise is expected to accelerate. Under the most likely mid-range projections, sea level is projected to rise a further 0.14 - 0.18 m by 2050, and 0.31 - 0.49 m by 2100. In developing scenarios, it is recommended that at least the most likely mid-range scenario for sea-level rise is used: it is recommended that council staff use a figure of 0.2 m by 2050 and 0.5 m by 2100 when considering sea-level rise in projects or plans. Sea-level rise and other climate change effects, such as increased intensity of storms and changes in sediment supply to coastlines, are expected to modify coastal hazards in many areas around New Zealand. Because climate change effects are very gradual, land-use planning decisions must have long-term horizons to accommodate the lifetimes of structures. It is vital that planning occurs now for climate change effects, particularly where decisions are being made on issues and developments that have planning horizons and life expectancies of 50 years or more. This Guidance Manual is intended to help local authorities manage coastal hazards by: providing information on the effects of climate change on coastal hazards; presenting a decision-making framework to assess the associated risks; providing guidance on appropriate response options. Three main types of coastal hazard are addressed: coastal erosion caused by storms and/or long-term processes; coastal inundation caused by storms or gradual inundation

  19. A new methodology for building local climate change scenarios : A case study of monthly temperature projections for Mexico City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Guerrero, VíCtor M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it

  20. Reflections on the uptake of climate change policies by local governments: facing the challenges of mitigation and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoppe, Thomas; van den Berg, Maya Marieke; Coenen, Franciscus H.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: There is a growing body of literature that examines the role of local governments in addressing climate change vis-a-vis mitigation and adaptation. Although it appears that climate change mitigation strategies - in particular those addressing energy issues - are being adopted by a large

  1. Assessing local and regional economic impacts of climatic extremes and feasibility of adaptation measures in Dutch arable farming systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diogo, V.; Reidsma, P.; Schaap, B.; Andree, B. P.J.; Koomen, E.

    2017-01-01

    We propose a method that combines local productivity factors, economic factors, crop-specific sensitivity to climatic extremes, and future climate change scenarios, to assess potential impacts of extreme weather events on agricultural production systems. Our assessment is spatially explicit and uses

  2. Climate, migration, and the local food security context: Introducing Terra Populus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlak, Allison M.; Kugler, Tracy A.

    2016-01-01

    Studies investigating the connection between environmental factors and migration are difficult to execute because they require the integration of microdata and spatial information. In this article, we introduce the novel, publically available data extraction system Terra Populus (TerraPop), which was designed to facilitate population-environment studies. We showcase the use of TerraPop by exploring variations in the climate-migration association in Burkina Faso and Senegal based on differences in the local food security context. Food security was approximated using anthropometric indicators of child stunting and wasting derived from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and linked to the TerraPop extract of climate and migration information. We find that an increase in heat waves was associated with a decrease in international migration from Burkina Faso, while excessive precipitation increased international moves from Senegal. Significant interactions reveal that the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts are strongly amplified in highly food insecure Senegalese departments. PMID:27974863

  3. Barriers in local practice-oriented teaching networks to organize climate and science teaching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunwald, Annette

    The poster takes its point of departure from a need to meet primary and lower secondary pupils interest in climate, science and technology by giving them possibilities to learn “in the real world” in a more problem based way. This possibility is given through out-of-school learning organized in co......-operation between educational actors, here primary/lower secondary schools, Aalborg University, and other actors, here Aalborg municipality and companies. The poster will present the first results of an ongoing developing and research project “Learning in reality: Practice-oriented teaching networks strengthen...... primary and lower secondary school pupils’ interest in climate and science”, funded by the Danish Energy Foundation (August 2014 – December 2016). The aim of the project is e.g. to: - Develop, establish and explore new forms of local cooperation between schools, companies, Aalborg University...

  4. Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution....... We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs...... at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient...

  5. Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

    2012-01-01

    In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

  6. Using ESRI Story Maps for Engaging Tribal Youth in Localized Climate Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masters, E. L.; Marsik, F. J.; Sonderegger, C.

    2017-12-01

    A critical step in any climate adaptation initiative is the engagement of the community through educational outreach about the impacts of climate change on vulnerable economic, infrastructure and natural resources within the community. For Tribal communities, such outreach must also highlight connections between these vulnerable assets, such as natural resources, and Tribal cultural practices. For adult members of these communities, the combination of traditional ecological knowledge and western science approaches can prove effective in this regard. For Tribal youth, the often complex and data-heavy nature of western science approaches may prove to be more of an obstacle than an aid in communicating the impacts of our changing climate on their local Tribal community. A collaborative educational effort between the Grand Traverse Band of Ottawa and Chippewa Indians (Peshawbestown, MI) and the University of Michigan seeks to lean upon the rich tradition of storytelling as a method of conveying information to younger generations. The ESRI Story Maps platform provides such a tool through its combined use of narratives, images, maps, and data. The ability to make a Story Map deep and complex, or simple and fun, makes this application ideal for communicating with a range of people, from school-age children to adults. For our project, we created two Story Maps with different complexity levels, with one for elementary to middle school students, and the other targeted at high school students. The project for younger children was aimed at engaging viewers through a series of images and maps, introducing them to the basics of what wetlands are, which types of wetlands can be found locally, Indigenous cultural connections to wetlands, and how to protect wetlands. The more complex project provided a more expansive discussion of these same topics, including threats to these wetlands from human activities, including climate change, as well as an extensive list of references and a

  7. Should developing countries take on binding commitments in a climate agreement? A cost-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallbekken, Steffen; Westskog, Hege

    2003-01-01

    This paper explores the costs and benefits for all parties to a future climate agreement of developing countries taking on binding commitments. Such commitments would allow developing countries to participate in emissions trading, which has significantly lower transaction costs than the present Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Thus we analyse whether the efficiency gains obtained by participating in emissions trading can offset the economic risk (due to the fact that future emissions cannot be known) incurred by taking on binding commitments. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to carry out the analysis. We find that the efficiency gains that can be obtained by developing countries might not be very large compared to the risks they incur. Developing countries might therefore have good reasons not to embrace ''cap and trade'' emissions trading. (author)

  8. A qualitative assessment of climate adaptation options and some estimates of adaptation costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ierland, E.C.; De Bruin, K.; Dellink, R.B.; Ruijs, A.

    2006-12-01

    The Routeplanner project aims to provide a 'systematic assessment' of potential adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands in connection to spatial planning. The study is the result of a policy oriented project that took place between May and September 2006. The aim of the current study is to provide a 'qualitative assessment' of the direct and indirect effects of adaptation options and to provide an assessment of some of the costs and benefits of adaptation options. The present report presents and summarizes the results of all phases of the study: an inventory of adaptation options, a qualitative assessment of the effects of the adaptation options for the Netherlands in the long run, a database which allows to rank the various options according to a set of criteria and a relative ranking on the basis of these criteria. Finally, the report also contains the best available information on costs and benefits of various adaptation options.

  9. Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Gautam, Shiva; Bawa, Kamaljit S

    2012-01-01

    Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ~20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5 °C with an average increase of 0.06 °C yr(-1). The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr(-1). Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1) and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1), but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters. This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change.

  10. Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ward, P.J.; Strzepek, K.; Pauw, W.P.; Brander, L.M.; Hughes, G.; Aerts, J.C.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a

  11. Investigation of the effect of sealed surfaces on local climate in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weihs, Philipp; Hasel, Stefan; Mursch-Radlgruber, Erich; Gützer, Christian; Krispel, Stefan; Peyerl, Martin; Trimmel, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Local climate is driven by the interaction between energy balance and energy transported by advected air. Short-wave and long-wave radiation are major components in this interaction. Some few studies (e.g. Santamouris et al.) showed that adjusting the grade of reflection of surfaces is an efficient way to influence temperature. The present study investigates the influence of high albedo concrete surfaces on local climate. The first step of the study consisted of experimental investigations: routine measurements of the short and longwave radiation balance, of the ground and of the air temperature and humidity at different heights above 6 different types of sealed surfaces were performed. During this measurement campaign the above mentioned components were measured over a duration of 4 months above two conventional asphalt surfaces, one conventional concrete and three newly developed concrete surfaces with increased reflectances. Measured albedo values amounted to 0.12±0.02 for the asphalt surfaces and to maximum values of 0.56 for high albedo concrete. The maximum difference in surface temperature between the asphalt surfaces and the high albedo concrete surfaces amounted to 15°C. In addition the emission constants of the different sealed surfaces were also determined and were compared to values from literature.. In a second step the urban energy balance model Envi_Met was used to simulate the surface temperature of the six surfaces. The simulated surface temperatures were compared to the measured surface temperatures and statements as to uncertainties of the model simulations were made In a third step, Envi_Met was used to simulate the local climate of an urban district in Vienna. The surface and air temperature and the SW, LW fluxes were calculated for different types of sealed surfaces. By performing calculations of thermal stress indices (UTCI, PMV), statements as to the influence of the type of sealed surface on thermal stress on humans was made.

  12. Local Climate Zones Classification to Urban Planning in the Mega City of São Paulo - SP, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves Santos, Rafael; Saraiva Lopes, António Manuel; Prata-Shimomura, Alessandra

    2017-04-01

    Local Climate Zones Classification to Urban Planning in the Mega city of São Paulo - SP, Brazil Tropical megacities have presented a strong trend in growing urban. Urban management in megacities has as one of the biggest challenges is the lack of integration of urban climate and urban planning to promote ecologically smart cities. Local Climatic Zones (LCZs) are considered as important and recognized tool for urban climate management. Classes are local in scale, climatic in nature, and zonal in representation. They can be understood as regions of uniform surface cover, structure, material and human activity that have to a unique climate response. As an initial tool to promote urban climate planning, LCZs represent a simple composition of different land coverages (buildings, vegetation, soils, rock, roads and water). LCZs are divided in 17 classes, they are based on surface cover (built fraction, soil moisture, albedo), surface structure (sky view factor, roughness height) and cultural activity (anthropogenic heat flux). The aim of this study is the application of the LCZs classification system in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil. Located at a latitude of 23° 21' and longitude 46° 44' near to the Tropic of Capricorn, presenting humid subtropical climate (Cfa) with diversified topographies. The megacity of São Paulo currently concentrates 11.890.000 inhabitants is characterized by large urban conglomerates with impermeable surfaces and high verticalization, having as result high urban heat island intensity. The result indicates predominance in urban zones of Compact low-rise, Compact Mid-rise, Compact High-rise and Open Low-rise. Non-urban regions are mainly covered by dense vegetation and water. The LCZs classification system promotes significant advantages for climate sensitive urban planning in the megacity of São Paulo. They offers new perspectives to the management of temperature and urban ventilation and allows the formulation of urban planning

  13. Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W; Li, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011-2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed.

  14. Benefit–cost analysis of non-marginal climate and energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dietz, Simon; Hepburn, Cameron

    2013-01-01

    Conventional benefit–cost analysis incorporates the normally reasonable assumption that the policy or project under examination is marginal. Among the assumptions this entails is that the policy or project is small, so the underlying growth rate of the economy does not change. However, this assumption may be inappropriate in some important circumstances, including in climate-change and energy policy. One example is global targets for carbon emissions, while another is a large renewable energy project in a small economy, such as a hydropower dam. This paper develops some theory on the evaluation of non-marginal projects, with empirical applications to climate change and energy. We examine the conditions under which evaluation of a non-marginal project using marginal methods may be wrong, and in our empirical examples we show that both qualitative and large quantitative errors are plausible. - Highlights: • This paper develops the theory of the evaluation of non-marginal projects. • It also includes empirical applications to climate change and energy. • We show when evaluation of a non-marginal project using marginal methods is wrong

  15. Managerial performance and cost efficiency of Japanese local public hospitals: a latent class stochastic frontier model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besstremyannaya, Galina

    2011-09-01

    The paper explores the link between managerial performance and cost efficiency of 617 Japanese general local public hospitals in 1999-2007. Treating managerial performance as unobservable heterogeneity, the paper employs a panel data stochastic cost frontier model with latent classes. Financial parameters associated with better managerial performance are found to be positively significant in explaining the probability of belonging to the more efficient latent class. The analysis of latent class membership was consistent with the conjecture that unobservable technological heterogeneity reflected in the existence of the latent classes is related to managerial performance. The findings may support the cause for raising efficiency of Japanese local public hospitals by enhancing the quality of management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Morena; Nicol, Sam; Wells, Jessie A; Lahoz-Monfort, José J; Wintle, Brendan; Bode, Michael; Wardrop, Martin; Walshe, Terry; Probert, William J M; Runge, Michael C; Possingham, Hugh P; Madden, Eve McDonald

    2014-06-01

    Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  17. Cash Management, Revenue Sources and Cost Effective Methods of Revenue Collection at Local Government Level

    OpenAIRE

    Mustapha Gimba Kumshe; Kagu Bukar

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of this paper was to focus on the elements, objectives, goals and importance of cash management; and also to examine the sources of revenue and cost effective collections for local governments. The elements of cash management are identified as establishing bank relations, preparing cash flow statements, estimating collection receipts and analyzing cash flow and preparing a budget. Amongst the objectives of cash management is to ensure availability of cash resources at all t...

  18. Costs of performance based maintenance for local roads: Case study Albania

    OpenAIRE

    Jokanović Igor; Grujić Bojana; Zeljić Dragana; Grujić Žarko; Svilar Mila

    2017-01-01

    The provision and maintenance of road infrastructure is a major global business, consequently it is essential that road maintenance services are provided in the most cost effective manner. Without regular maintenance, roads can rapidly fall into disrepair, preventing realization of the longer term impacts of road improvements on development, such as increased agricultural production and growth in school enrollment, which is of particular importance for a network of local (access) roads. Inade...

  19. Local farmers' perceptions of climate change and local adaptive strategies: a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, Tibet, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chunyan; Tang, Ya; Luo, Han; Di, Baofeng; Zhang, Liyun

    2013-10-01

    Climate change affects the productivity of agricultural ecosystems. Farmers cope with climate change based on their perceptions of changing climate patterns. Using a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, we present a new research framework that uses questionnaire and interview methods to compare local farmers' perceptions of climate change with the adaptive farming strategies they adopt. Most farmers in the valley believed that temperatures had increased in the last 30 years but did not note any changes in precipitation. Most farmers also reported sowing and harvesting hulless barley 10-15 days earlier than they were 20 years ago. In addition, farmers observed that plants were flowering and river ice was melting earlier in the season, but they did not perceive changes in plant germination, herbaceous vegetation growth, or other spring seasonal events. Most farmers noticed an extended fall season signified by delays in the freezing of rivers and an extended growing season for grassland vegetation. The study results showed that agricultural practices in the study area are still traditional; that is, local farmers' perceptions of climate change and their strategies to mitigate its impacts were based on indigenous knowledge and their own experiences. Adaptive strategies included adjusting planting and harvesting dates, changing crop species, and improving irrigation infrastructure. However, the farmers' decisions could not be fully attributed to their concerns about climate change. Local farming systems exhibit high adaptability to climate variability. Additionally, off-farm income has reduced the dependence of the farmers on agriculture, and an agricultural subsidy from the Chinese Central Government has mitigated the farmers' vulnerability. Nevertheless, it remains necessary for local farmers to build a system of adaptive climate change strategies that combines traditional experience and indigenous knowledge with scientific research and

  20. Local Self-Government Financing and Costs of Municipality in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zan Jan OPLOTNIK

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This research paper focuses on the compliance of the actual system of financing local selfgovernment in Slovenia with the basic principles of the theory of decentralization and guidelines of the European Charter of Local Self-Government. It addresses the level of costs coverage within the municipal competence by using the allocated appropriate expenditure resources calculated according to the Law of Financing Municipality Act. The purpose of the paper is, therefore, to look for an answer to the question whether and to what extent the obtained funds correspond to the actual workload that municipalities have for performing statutory tasks and for exercising their competences. Analysis shows that, on an aggregate level, these actual systems ensure enough resources for local governments to cover their actual costs and current expenditures; some groups of municipalities, e.g. larger urban municipalities, municipalities with large proportions of elderly people etc. are faced with lack of funding, according to the actual costs data available, while other groups of municipalities receive more funds than they need.

  1. E-participation and Climate Change in Europe: An analysis of local government practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Yetano

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Citizens are demanding greater transparency and accountability from their governments, and seek to participate in shaping the policies that affect their lives. The diffusion of the Internet has raised expectations that electronic tools may increase citizen participation in government decision-making and stop the decline of trust in political institutions. This paper brings together two relevant topics, e-participation and climate change, analyzing the websites of the environment departments of European local governments that have signed the Aalborg+10 commitments, in order to establish to what extent European local governments are making use of the Internet to promote e-participation and environmentally-friendly behaviors among their citizens. Our results show that the developments on e-participation are higher in transparency than interactivity. The Internet as a tool to revitalize the public sphere is still limited to those countries with higher levels of transparency, and penetration of ICTs and a culture of citizen engagement.

  2. Cost-effectiveness on a local level: whether and when to adopt a new technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woertman, Willem H; Van De Wetering, Gijs; Adang, Eddy M M

    2014-04-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis has become a widely accepted tool for decision making in health care. The standard textbook cost-effectiveness analysis focuses on whether to make the switch from an old or common practice technology to an innovative technology, and in doing so, it takes a global perspective. In this article, we are interested in a local perspective, and we look at the questions of whether and when the switch from old to new should be made. A new approach to cost-effectiveness from a local (e.g., a hospital) perspective, by means of a mathematical model for cost-effectiveness that explicitly incorporates time, is proposed. A decision rule is derived for establishing whether a new technology should be adopted, as well as a general rule for establishing when it pays to postpone adoption by 1 more period, and a set of decision rules that can be used to determine the optimal timing of adoption. Finally, a simple example is presented to illustrate our model and how it leads to optimal decision making in a number of cases.

  3. Population, Environment, and Climate in the Albertine Rift: Understanding Local Impacts of Regional Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, J.; Ryan, S. J.; Diem, J.; Palace, M. W.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is of critical concern for conservation and to develop appropriate policies and responses, it is important not only to anticipate the nature of changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local people. The Albertine Rift in East Africa is one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense settlement, extreme poverty, and land conversion. We synthesize ongoing NSF-CNH research, where Ugandan park landscapes are examined to understand the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. Kibale National Park, the main study site, exemplifies the challenges facing many parks because of its isolation within a densely populated agricultural landscape. Three separate household surveys (n=251, 130, 100) reveal that the most perceived benefits provided by Kibale were ecosystem services and farmers cite rainfall as one of the park's most important benefits, but are also concerned with variable precipitation. Analysis of 30+ years of daily rainfall station data shows total rainfall has not changed significantly, but timing and transitions of seasons and intra-seasonal distribution are highly variable, which may contribute to changes in farming schedules and threaten food security. Further, the contrast between land use/cover change over 25 years around the park and the stability of forest within the park underscores the need to understand this landscape for future sustainability planning and the inevitable population growth outside its boundaries. Understanding climate change impacts and feedbacks to and from socio-ecological systems are important to address the dual challenge of biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation.

  4. A low cost indoor localization system for mobile robot experimental setup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adinandra, S.; Syarif, A.

    2018-04-01

    Indoor localization becomes one of the most important part in mobile robot system One fundamental requirement is to provide an easy-to-use and practical localization system for real-time experiments. In this paper we propose a combination of a recent open source virtual reality (VR) tools, a simple MATLAB code and a low cost USB webcam as an indoor mobile robot localization system Using the VR tools as a server and MATLAB as a client, the proposed solution can cover up to 1.6 [m] × 3.2 [m] with the measurement position accuracy up to 1.2 [cm]. The system is insensitive to light, easy to move and can be quickly set up. A series of successful real-time experiments with three different mobile robot types has been conducted.

  5. Analysis of the carbon sequestration costs of afforestation and reforestation agroforestry practices and the use of cost curves to evaluate their potential for implementation of climate change mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torres, Arturo Balderas [Environment Department, University of York, YO10 5DD (United Kingdom); Instituto Tecnologico y de Estudios Superiores de Occidente (ITESO), Tlaquepaque CP (Mexico); Technology and Sustainable Development Section, Center for Clean Technology and Environmental Policy, University of Twente/CSTM, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands); Marchant, Rob; Smart, James C.R. [Environment Department, University of York, YO10 5DD (United Kingdom); Lovett, Jon C. [Environment Department, University of York, YO10 5DD (United Kingdom); Technology and Sustainable Development Section, Center for Clean Technology and Environmental Policy, University of Twente/CSTM, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands); Tipper, Richard [Ecometrica, Edinburgh, EH9 1PJ (United Kingdom)

    2010-01-15

    Carbon sequestration in forest sinks is an important strategy to remove greenhouse gases and to mitigate climate change; however its implementation has been limited under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol which has not created the incentives for widespread implementation. The objective of this paper is to analyze the sequestration costs of agroforestry afforestation and reforestation projects (ARPs) following a partial market equilibrium using average cost curves and economic break even analysis to identify the supply costs. The modelling done in this work contrasts the voluntary and clean development mechanism transaction costs. Data is based on the voluntary project, Scolel Te, being implemented in Mexico. Cost curves are developed for seven different sequestration options considering transaction and implementation costs; information from agricultural production in Chiapas Mexico is used to integrate opportunity costs of two agroforestry practices suggesting that sequestration costs may follow a 'U' shape, with an initial reduction due to economies of scale and a subsequent increase caused by high opportunity costs. The widespread implementation of agroforestry options not requiring complete land conversion (e.g. living fences and coffee under shade) might be cost effective strategies not generating high opportunity costs. Results also suggest that payments in the early years of the project and lower transaction costs favour the development of ARPs in the voluntary market especially in marginal rural areas with high discount rates. (author)

  6. Beyond Knowledge: Service Learning and Local Climate Change Research Engagement Activities that Foster Action and Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, R.; Mandryk, C.; Gosselin, D. C.; Haney, C.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change engagement requires individuals to understand an abstract and complex topic and realize the profound implications of climate change for their families and local community. In recent years federal agencies have spent millions of dollars on climate change education to prepare a nation for a warming future. The majority of these education efforts are based on a knowledge deficit model. In this view 'educate' means 'provide information'. However cognitive and behavioral research and current action demonstrate that information alone is not enough; knowledge does not necessarily lead to action. Educators are speaking to deaf ears if we rely on passive and abstract information transfer and neglect more persuasive and affective approaches to communication. When climate change is presented abstractly as something that happens in the future to people, environments, animals somewhere else it is easy to discount. People employ two separate systems for information processing: analytical-rational and intuitive-experiential Authentic local research experiences that engage both analytical and experiential information processing systems not only help individuals understand the abstraction of climate change in a concrete and personally experienced manner, but are more likely to influence behavior. Two on-line, graduate-level courses offered within University of Nebraska's Masters of Applied Science program provide opportunities for participants to engage in authentic inquiry based studies climate change's local impacts, and work with K-12 learners in promoting the scientific awareness and behavioral changes that mitigate against the negative impacts of a changing climate. The courses are specifically designed to improve middle and high school (grades 6-12) teachers' content knowledge of climate processes and climate change science in the context of their own community. Both courses provide data-rich, investigative science experiences in a distributed digital

  7. Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Johansson

    Full Text Available The four dengue viruses, the agents of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever in humans, are transmitted predominantly by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The abundance and the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti are influenced by temperature and precipitation. While there is strong biological evidence for these effects, empirical studies of the relationship between climate and dengue incidence in human populations are potentially confounded by seasonal covariation and spatial heterogeneity. Using 20 years of data and a statistical approach to control for seasonality, we show a positive and statistically significant association between monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and monthly changes in dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. We also found that the strength of this association varies spatially, that this variation is associated with differences in local climate, and that this relationship is consistent with laboratory studies of the impacts of these factors on vector survival and viral replication. These results suggest the importance of temperature and precipitation in the transmission of dengue viruses and suggest a reason for their spatial heterogeneity. Thus, while dengue transmission may have a general system, its manifestation on a local scale may differ from global expectations.

  8. Stochastic characterization of regional circulation patterns for climate model diagnosis and estimation of local precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zorita, E.; Hughes, J.P.

    1993-01-01

    Two statistical approaches for linking large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and daily local rainfall are described and applied to several GCM (general circulation model) climate simulations. The ultimate objective is to simulate local precipitation associated with alternative climates. The index stations are located near the West and East North American coasts. The first method is based on CART analysis (Classification and Regression trees). It finds the classification of observed daily SLR (sea level pressure) fields in weather types that are most strongly associated with the presence/absence of rainfall in a set of index stations. The best results were obtained for winter rainfall for the West Coast, where a set of physically reasonable weather types could be identified, whereas for the East Coast the rainfall process seemed to be spatially less coherent. The GCM simulations were validated against observations in terms of probability of occurrence and survival time of these weather states. Some discrepancies werefound but there was no systematic bias, indicating that this behavior depends on the particular dynamics of each model. This classification method was then used for the generation of daily rainfall time series from the daily SLP fields from historical observation and from the GCM simulations. Whereas the mean rainfall and probability distributions were rather well replicated, the simulated dry periods were in all cases shorter than in the rainfall observations. The second rainfall generator is based on the analog method and uses information on the evolution of the SLP field in several previous days. It was found to perform reasonably well, although some downward bias in the simulated rainfall persistence was still present. Rainfall changes in a 2xCO 2 climate were investigated by applying both methods to the output of a greenhouse-gas experiment. The simulated precipitation changes were small. (orig.)

  9. Impact of Rice Paddy Areas Decrease on Local Climate over Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, M. H.; Wen, W. H.; Chen, C. C.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural irrigation practice is one of the important anthropogenic processes in the land surface modeling. Irrigation can decrease local surface temperature with alternating surface energy partitioning. Rice paddy is the major food crop in Asian monsoon region and rice is grown under flooded conditions during the growing season; hence, the rice paddy can be considered as an open water body, which has more impacts on the surface energy budget than other cropland does. In this study, we explore how the rice paddy area changes affect Taiwan's regional climate from both observational data and numerical modeling exercise. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is utilized to explore impacts of rice paddy area changes on the regional climate, and energy and water budget changes. In addition, temperature datasets from six automatic weather stations in the northern Taiwan and two stations in the southern Taiwan are analyzed in this study to explore how the Daily Temperature Range (DTR) changes with the decreased rice paddy areas. Previous studies show that due to the urban heat island effect, aerosol direct and indirect effects, and global warming, the DTR has decreased in the past 4 decades observed from most of the weather stations around Taiwan. However, the declined rice paddy area may increase the DTR with higher Bowen ratio during the daytime. Preliminary results show that DTR is decreased in weather stations near the urban area, but increased in weather stations near fallow areas in the past 20 years. It shows that different land use changes may have opposite impacts on local and regional climate.

  10. How can air travel contribute to the costs of adapting to climate change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, Antonia

    2011-05-15

    [English] By 2050, the costs of adapting to climate change in developing countries could reach US$100 billion per year, according to estimates from UNDP and the World Bank. Despite international pledges of financial support to developing countries for adaptation (and mitigation), it is unclear where this funding will come from. New and additional sources of funding for adaptation are desperately needed. The International Air Passenger Adaptation Levy (IAPAL) is a proposed new purchase tax on air tickets, the proceeds of which would be dedicated to investment in adaptation to climate change. IAPAL would not mitigate the effects of climate change because it does not aim to reduce flight numbers and therefore aviation's contribution to climate change. IAPAL could immediately raise up to US$10 billion annually for adaptation, and considerably more in the longer term. Aviation is a sector with a relatively low price-elasticity of demand, meaning that price increases do not greatly reduce the demand for most flights. This makes taxation an unsuitable method of reducing demand but indicates that it could be suitable for raising revenue. It also suggests that it could raise a considerable amount of revenue. This paper revisits the key assumptions made in the original paper proposing this scheme (by Mueller and Hepburn in 2006), while also offering fresh thinking. This paper analyses current international agreements, to determine the feasibility of introducing IAPAL. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is the UN agency with global responsibility for establishing standards, recommended practices and guidance on various aspects of international aviation, including environmental protection. Despite ICAO's current focus on the mitigation aspects of aviation, the evidence suggests no likely contradiction in including a levy for adaptation purposes. This is providing that the purpose of IAPAL – adaptation rather than mitigation – is clear and that

  11. The costs of climate policies in a second best world with labour market imperfections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guivarch, C.; Crassous, R.; Sassi, O.; Hallegatte, St.

    2009-09-01

    This article explores the critical role of labour market imperfections in climate stabilisation costs formation. To do so, we use a dynamic recursive energy-economy model that represents a second best world with market imperfections and short-run adjustments constraints along a long-term growth path. We show that the degree of rigidity of the labour markets is a central parameter and we conduct a systematic sensitivity analysis of the model results to this parameter. When labour markets are represented as highly flexible, the model results are in the usual range of existing literature, i.e. less than 2% GDP losses in 2030 for a stabilisation target at 450 ppm CO 2 equivalent, But when labour markets rigidities are accounted for, mitigation costs increase dramatically. In a second time, the article identifies accompanying measures, namely labour subsidies, which guarantees against the risk of large stabilisation costs in the case of high rigidities of the labour markets. That vision complements the usual view that mitigation is a long-term matter that depends on technology, innovation, investment and behavioural change. Here we add the warning that mitigation is also a shorter-term issue and a matter of transition on the labour market. (authors)

  12. Opportunity costs and local health service spending decisions: a qualitative study from Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsberg Schaffer, Sarah; Sussex, Jon; Hughes, Dyfrig; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-03-25

    All health care systems face the need to find the resources to meet new demands such as a new, cost-increasing health technology. In England and Wales, when a health technology is recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the National Health Service (NHS) is mandated to provide the funding to accommodate it within three months of publication of the recommendation. Identifying what, in practice, is foregone when new cost-increasing technologies are introduced is important for understanding the effects of health technology assessment (HTA) decisions on the NHS or any other health care system. Our objective was to investigate how in practice local NHS commissioners in Wales accommodated financial "shocks" arising from technology appraisals (TAs) issued by NICE and from other cost pressures. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with Finance Directors and Medical Directors from all seven Local Health Boards (LHBs) in NHS Wales. These interviews covered prioritisation processes, as well as methods of financing NICE TAs and other financial shocks at each LHB. We then undertook a systematic identification of themes and topics from the information recorded. The study relates to the period October 2010 to March 2013. The financial impact of NICE TAs is generally anticipated and planned for in advance and the majority of LHBs have contingency funds available to cope with these and other financial shocks within-period. Efficiency savings (defined as reductions in costs with no assumed reductions in quality) were a source of funds for cost pressures of all kinds. Service displacements were not linkable to particular NICE TAs and there appears to be a general lack of explicit prioritisation activities. The Welsh Government has, on occasion, explicitly or implicitly acted as the funder of last resort. Services may be displaced as part of a response to the cumulative impact of all types of cost pressures, including cost-increasing health

  13. The relative roles of local climate adaptation and phylogeny in determining leaf-out timing of temperate tree species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elsa Desnoues

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background Leaf out times of temperate forest trees are a prominent determinant of global carbon dynamics throughout the year. Abiotic cues of leaf emergence are well studied but investigation of the relative roles of shared evolutionary history (phylogeny and local adaptation to climate in determining the species-level responses to these cues is needed to better apprehend the effect of global change on leaf emergence. We explored the relative importance of phylogeny and climate in determining the innate leaf out phenology across the temperate biome. Methods We used an extensive dataset of leaf-out dates of 1126 temperate woody species grown in eight Northern Hemisphere common gardens. For these species, information on the native climate and phylogenetic position was collected. Using linear regression analyses, we examine the relative effect of climate variables and phylogeny on leaf out variation among species. Results Climate variables explained twice as much variation in leaf out timing as phylogenetic information, a process that was driven primarily by the complex interactive effects of multiple climate variables. Although the primary climate factors explaining species-level variation in leaf-out timing varied drastically across different families, our analyses reveal that local adaptation plays a stronger role than common evolutionary history in determining tree phenology across the temperate biome. Conclusions In the long-term, the direct effects of physiological adaptation to abiotic effects of climate change on forest phenology are likely to outweigh the indirect effects mediated through changes in tree species composition.

  14. Air pollution policies in Europe: efficiency gains from integrating climate effects with damage costs to health and crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tollefsen, Petter; Rypdal, Kristin; Torvanger, Asbjorn; Rive, Nathan

    2009-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants cause damage to health and crops, but several air pollutants also have an effect on climate through radiative forcing. We investigate efficiency gains achieved by integrating climate impacts of air pollutants into air quality strategies for the EU region. The pollutants included in this study are SO 2 , NH 3 , VOC, CO, NO x , black carbon, organic carbon, PM 2.5 , and CH 4 . We illustrate the relative importance of climate change effects compared to damage to health and crops, as well as monetary gains of including climate change contributions. The analysis considers marginal abatement costs and compares air quality and climate damage in Euros. We optimize abatement policies with respect to both climate and health impacts, which imply implementing all measures that yield a net benefit. The efficiency gains of the integrated policy are in the order of 2.5 billion Euros, compared to optimal abatement based on health and crop damage only, justifying increased abatement efforts of close to 50%. Climate effect of methane is the single most important factor. If climate change is considered on a 20- instead of a 100-year time-scale, the efficiency gain almost doubles. Our results indicate that air pollution policies should be supplemented with climate damage considerations.

  15. Netherlands climate policy to be revised. Towards a cost-effective, sustainable society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Dorp, H.W.; Schmitz, H.

    2009-01-01

    This is the second article in a series of two. The first article addresses current Dutch energy policy by means of an important energy formula and calculations were made based on 7.2 million Dutch dwellings. This article addresses climate policy with a comparison of the social cost on the level of new housing construction of both policy lines. More specifically, the investment effect of carbon dioxide storage in the soil in Barendrecht and Geleen, both Netherlands, is discussed as well as the annual investment in the 220 and 380 kV high voltage grid. Some recommendations and necessary policy adjustments are suggested that will strengthen the competitive edge of the SMBs compared to large energy companies and will help realize a truly affordable sustainable society [nl

  16. Single-Locus versus Multilocus Patterns of Local Adaptation to Climate in Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus, Pinaceae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Om P Rajora

    Full Text Available Natural plant populations are often adapted to their local climate and environmental conditions, and populations of forest trees offer some of the best examples of this pattern. However, little empirical work has focused on the relative contribution of single-locus versus multilocus effects to the genetic architecture of local adaptation in plants/forest trees. Here, we employ eastern white pine (Pinus strobus to test the hypothesis that it is the inter-genic effects that primarily drive climate-induced local adaptation. The genetic structure of 29 range-wide natural populations of eastern white pine was determined in relation to local climatic factors using both a reference set of SSR markers, and SNPs located in candidate genes putatively involved in adaptive response to climate. Comparisons were made between marker sets using standard single-locus outlier analysis, single-locus and multilocus environment association analyses and a novel implementation of Population Graphs. Magnitudes of population structure were similar between the two marker sets. Outlier loci consistent with diversifying selection were rare for both SNPs and SSRs. However, genetic distances based on the multilocus among population covariances (cGD were significantly more correlated to climate, even after correcting for spatial effects, for SNPs as compared to SSRs. Coalescent simulations confirmed that the differences in mutation rates between SSRs and SNPs did not affect the topologies of the Population Graphs, and hence values of cGD and their correlations with associated climate variables. We conclude that the multilocus covariances among populations primarily reflect adaptation to local climate and environment in eastern white pine. This result highlights the complexity of the genetic architecture of adaptive traits, as well as the need to consider multilocus effects in studies of local adaptation.

  17. The assessment of damages due to climate change in a situation of uncertainty: the contribution of adaptation cost modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumas, P.

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this research is to introduce new elements for the assessment of damages due to climate changes within the frame of compact models aiding the decision. Two types of methodologies are used: sequential optimisation stochastic models and simulation stochastic models using optimal assessment methods. The author first defines the damages, characterizes their different categories, and reviews the existing assessments. Notably, he makes the distinction between damages due to climate change and damages due to its rate. Then, he presents the different models used in this study, the numerical solutions, and gives a rough estimate of the importance of the considered phenomena. By introducing a new category of capital in an optimal growth model, he tries to establish a framework allowing the representation of adaptation and of its costs. He introduces inertia in macro-economical evolutions, climatic variability, detection of climate change and damages due to climate hazards

  18. Assessing the costs and market impacts of carbon sequestration, climate change, and acid rain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, J.M.

    2000-03-01

    This thesis provides fourteen journal articles and papers. Thirteen of these papers were published in referred journals, covering environmental economics, policy modelling, policy analysis, and the physical sciences. One paper was published as a USDA Forest Service research report. The papers in the thesis are divided into three topical areas: 1) Section 2: The Economics of Carbon Sequestration. Eight papers plus Appendix A of the thesis cover the development and application of models to estimate the economic costs and management consequences of policies to sequester carbon emissions by planting trees on agricultural land in the US or through more intensive forest management. 2) Section 3: The Economics of Climate Change Damages. Two papers of the thesis cover the development of models that can be used to estimate the market and nonmarket damages associated with the impacts of climate change on water resources in the US. 3) Section 4: The Economics of Acid Rain Damages. Three papers in the thesis examine the methods that were developed to estimate the damages due to acid rain in the US by the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) and discuss more generally the role of economic policy analysis in this assessment. (EHS)

  19. IN SITU COMPARISON OF TREE-RING RESPONSES TO CLIMATE AND POPULATION GENETICS: THE NEED TO CONTROL FOR LOCAL CLIMATE AND SITE VARIABLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johann Mathias Housset

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Tree species responses to climate change will be greatly influenced by their evolutionary potential and their phenotypic plasticity. Investigating tree-rings responses to climate and population genetics at the regional scale is therefore crucial in assessing the tree behaviour to climate change. This study combined in situ dendroclimatology and population genetics over a latitudinal gradient and compared the variations between the two at the intra- and inter-population levels. This approach was applied on the northern marginal populations of Thuja occidentalis (eastern white-cedar in the Canadian boreal forest. We aimed first to assess the radial growth variability (response functional trait within populations across the gradient and to compare it with the genetic diversity (microsatellites. Second, we investigated the variability in the growth response to climate at the regional scale through the radial growth-climate relationships, and tested its correlation with environmental variables and population genetic structure. Model selection based on the Akaike Information Criteria revealed that the growth synchronicity between pairs of trees of a population covariates with both the genetic diversity of this population and the amount of precipitation (inverse correlation, although these variables only explained a small fraction of the observed variance. At the regional scale, variance partitioning and partial redundancy analysis indicate that the growth response to climate was greatly modulated by stand environmental variables, suggesting predominant plastic variations in growth-response to climate. Combining in situ dendroclimatology and population genetics is a promising way to investigate species’ response capacity to climate change in natural stands. We stress the need to control for local climate and site conditions effects on dendroclimatic response to climate to avoid misleading conclusions regarding the associations with genetic variables.

  20. Assessing emissions levels and costs associated with climate and air pollution policies in South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henneman, Lucas R.F.; Rafaj, Peter; Annegarn, Harold J.; Klausbruckner, Carmen

    2016-01-01

    Affordable energy supply and reductions in emissions of local air pollution and greenhouse gases are each important aspects of South Africa's goals. Many traditional solutions, however, work in contradiction to one another. This work investigates effects on estimated emissions and costs of mitigation strategies using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interaction Synergies (GAINS) model to identify policies that satisfy multiple goals. Eight scenarios that describe air pollution control options and mixes of energy production technologies are implemented in GAINS, which quantifies country-wide air pollution and greenhouse emissions and costs of controls. Emissions and costs trajectories are compared to the business as usual case, which projects CO_2 emissions to increase by 60% by 2050 compared to 2015. Results show that replacing all coal generation with renewables reduces CO_2 emissions in 2050 by 8% compared to 2015, and that aggressive policy targeting the whole energy sector reduces CO_2 emissions in 2050 by 40%. GAINS is used to show co-benefits and tradeoffs of each scenario, such as reductions in emissions control costs that accompany a switch to renewables. The approach provides supporting evidence for policies that exploit co-benefits and avoid contradictions by assessing multiple aspects of the energy sector within the integrated framework provided by the GAINS modeling platform.

  1. When we don't know the costs or the benefits: adaptive strategies for abating climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lempert, R.J.; Schlesinger, M.E.; Bankes, S.C.

    1996-01-01

    Most quantitative studies of climate-change policy attempt to predict the greenhouse-gas reduction plan that will have the optimum balance of long-term costs and benefits. The authors find that the large uncertainties associated with the climate-change problem can make the policy prescriptions of this traditional approach unreliable. In this study the authors construct a large uncertainty space that includes the possibility of large and/or abrupt climate changes and/or of technology breakthroughs that radically reduce projected abatement costs. Computational experiments are used on a linked system of climate and economic models to compare the performance of a simple adaptive strategy - one that can make midcourse corrections based on observations of the climate and economic systems - and two commonly advocated 'best-estimate' policies based on different expectations about the long-term consequences of climate change. It was found that the 'Do-a-Little' and 'Emissions-Stabilization' best-estimate policies perform well in the respective regions of the uncertainty space where their estimates are valid, but can fail severely in those regions where their estimates are wrong. In contrast, the adaptive strategy can make midcourse corrections and avoid significant errors. While its success is no surprise, the adaptive-strategy approach provides an analytic framework to examine important policy and research issues that will likely arise as society adapts to climate change, which cannot be easily addressed in studies using best-estimate approaches. 44 refs., 15 figs., 3 tabs

  2. Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project. Climatic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amelung, B.; Moreno, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based on the statistical relationship between bed nights

  3. Architecture of the local spatial data infrastructure for regional climate change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny

    2013-04-01

    Georeferenced datasets (meteorological databases, modeling and reanalysis results, etc.) are actively used in modeling and analysis of climate change for various spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their size which might constitute up to tens terabytes for a single dataset studies in the area of climate and environmental change require a special software support based on SDI approach. A dedicated architecture of the local spatial data infrastructure aiming at regional climate change analysis using modern web mapping technologies is presented. Geoportal is a key element of any SDI, allowing searching of geoinformation resources (datasets and services) using metadata catalogs, producing geospatial data selections by their parameters (data access functionality) as well as managing services and applications of cartographical visualization. It should be noted that due to objective reasons such as big dataset volume, complexity of data models used, syntactic and semantic differences of various datasets, the development of environmental geodata access, processing and visualization services turns out to be quite a complex task. Those circumstances were taken into account while developing architecture of the local spatial data infrastructure as a universal framework providing geodata services. So that, the architecture presented includes: 1. Effective in terms of search, access, retrieval and subsequent statistical processing, model of storing big sets of regional georeferenced data, allowing in particular to store frequently used values (like monthly and annual climate change indices, etc.), thus providing different temporal views of the datasets 2. General architecture of the corresponding software components handling geospatial datasets within the storage model 3. Metadata catalog describing in detail using ISO 19115 and CF-convention standards datasets used in climate researches as a basic element of the

  4. A Low Cost Sensors Approach for Accurate Vehicle Localization and Autonomous Driving Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vivacqua, Rafael; Vassallo, Raquel; Martins, Felipe

    2017-10-16

    Autonomous driving in public roads requires precise localization within the range of few centimeters. Even the best current precise localization system based on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) can not always reach this level of precision, especially in an urban environment, where the signal is disturbed by surrounding buildings and artifacts. Laser range finder and stereo vision have been successfully used for obstacle detection, mapping and localization to solve the autonomous driving problem. Unfortunately, Light Detection and Ranging (LIDARs) are very expensive sensors and stereo vision requires powerful dedicated hardware to process the cameras information. In this context, this article presents a low-cost architecture of sensors and data fusion algorithm capable of autonomous driving in narrow two-way roads. Our approach exploits a combination of a short-range visual lane marking detector and a dead reckoning system to build a long and precise perception of the lane markings in the vehicle's backwards. This information is used to localize the vehicle in a map, that also contains the reference trajectory for autonomous driving. Experimental results show the successful application of the proposed system on a real autonomous driving situation.

  5. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory: Building partnerships and developing tools to support local Tribal community response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, K. D.; Wee, B.; Kuslikis, A.

    2015-12-01

    Response of Tribal nations and Tribal communities to current and emerging climate change challenges requires active participation of stakeholders who have effective access to relevant data, information and analytical tools. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory (TLC), currently under development, is a joint effort between the American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC), the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The vision of the TLC is to create an integrative platform that enables coordination between multiple stakeholders (e.g. Tribal resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, farmers, ranchers, and other local community members) to collaborate on locally relevant climate change issues. The TLC is intended to facilitate the transformation of data into actionable information that can inform local climate response planning. The TLC will provide the technical mechanisms to access, collect and analyze data from both internal and external sources (e.g. NASA's Giovanni climate data portal, Ameriflux or USA National Phenology Network) while also providing the social scaffolds to enable collaboration across Tribal communities and with members of the national climate change research community. The prototype project focuses on phenology, a branch of science focused on relationships between climate and the seasonal timing of biological phenomena. Monitoring changes in the timing and duration of phenological stages in plant and animal co­­­­mmunities on Tribal lands can provide insight to the direct impacts of climate change on culturally and economically significant Tribal resources . The project will leverage existing phenological observation protocols created by the USA-National Phenology Network and NEON to direct data collection efforts and will be tailored to the specific needs and concerns of the community. Phenology observations will be captured and managed within the Collaboratory

  6. SLICEIT and TAHMO Partnerships: Students Local and International Collaboration for Climate and Environmental Monitoring, Technology Development, Education, Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aishlin, P. S.; Selker, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change understanding and impacts vary by community, yet the global nature of climate change requires international collaboration to address education, monitoring, adaptation and mitigation needs. We propose that effective climate change monitoring and education can be accomplished via student-led local and international community partnerships. By empowering students as community leaders in climate-environmental monitoring and education, as well as exploration of adaptation/mitigation needs, well-informed communities and young leadership are developed to support climate change science moving forward. Piloted 2013-2015, the SLICEIT1 program partnered with TAHMO2 to connect student leaders in North America, Europe and Africa. At the international level, schools in the U.S.A and Netherlands were partnered with schools in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda for science and cultural exchange. Each school was equipped with a climate or other environmental sensing system, real-time data publication and curricula for both formal and informal science, technology, engineering and math education and skill development. African counterparts in TAHMO's School-2-School program collect critically important data for enhanced on-the-ground monitoring of weather conditions in data-scarce regions of Africa. In Idaho, student designed, constructed and installed weather stations provide real time data for classroom and community use. Student-designed formal educational activities are disseminated to project partners, increasing hands-on technology education and peer-based learning. At the local level, schools are partnered with a local agency, research institute, nonprofit organization, industry and/or community partner that supplies a climate science expert mentor to SLICEIT program leaders and teachers. Mentor engagement is facilitated and secured by program components that directly benefit the mentor's organization and local community via climate/environment monitoring, student workforce

  7. Land Surface Temperature Differences within Local Climate Zones, Based on Two Central European Cities

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Geletič, Jan; Lehnert, M.; Dobrovolný, Petr

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 10 (2016), č. článku 788. ISSN 2072-4292 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Grant - others:UrbanAdapt(XE) EHP-CZ02-OV-1-036-2015 Program:CZ02 Biodiverzita a ekosystémové služby / Monitorování a integrované plánování a kontrola v životním prostředí/ Adaptace na změnu klimatu Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : land surface temperature * local climate zones * ASTER * LANDSAT * analysis of variance * Prague * Brno * Czech Republic Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.244, year: 2016

  8. Spatial Interpolation of Daily Rainfall Data for Local Climate Impact Assessment over Greater Sydney Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xihua Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents spatial interpolation techniques to produce finer-scale daily rainfall data from regional climate modeling. Four common interpolation techniques (ANUDEM, Spline, IDW, and Kriging were compared and assessed against station rainfall data and modeled rainfall. The performance was assessed by the mean absolute error (MAE, mean relative error (MRE, root mean squared error (RMSE, and the spatial and temporal distributions. The results indicate that Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW method is slightly better than the other three methods and it is also easy to implement in a geographic information system (GIS. The IDW method was then used to produce forty-year (1990–2009 and 2040–2059 time series rainfall data at daily, monthly, and annual time scales at a ground resolution of 100 m for the Greater Sydney Region (GSR. The downscaled daily rainfall data have been further utilized to predict rainfall erosivity and soil erosion risk and their future changes in GSR to support assessments and planning of climate change impact and adaptation in local scale.

  9. Climatic change and local policy, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Policy options and implementation strategies to reduce emission of CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schol, E.; Van den Bosch, A.; Ligthart, F.A.T.M.; Roemer, J.C.; Ruijg, G.J.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Dinkelman, D.H.; Kok, I.C.; De Paauw, K.F.B.

    1998-04-01

    Insight is given into the local policy options with respect to climate change, in this case within the sphere of influence of Amsterdam local authorities. A list of new policy options for CO2-reduction has been made with the assistance of local policy makers and representatives of interest groups. These policy options have been divided into three qualitative scenarios: Institutional Cultural Change, Technological Innovation and Least Regrets. The environmental, economic and other effects have been described for each policy option. The three most interesting policy options have been selected by local policy makers and representatives of interest groups during a workshop. Implementation strategies have been developed for the options selected. These strategies have been discussed during a second workshop. The reduction target, stabilization of CO2-emissions in 2015 compared to 1993, can be realized by a combination of all the new policy options. The three selected policy options count for 40% of this total CO2-emission reduction. Finally, a general outline on the methodology to construct local policies for climate protection has been described. This methodology can also be applied to other cities and municipal administrators, e.g. participants of Cities for Climate Protection, an initiative of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, or the Netherlands Climate Association. 136 refs

  10. Local climate and cultivation, but not ploidy, predict functional trait variation in Bouteloua gracilis (Poaceae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterfield, Bradley J.; Wood, Troy E.

    2015-01-01

    Efforts to improve the diversity of seed 18 resources for important restoration species has become a high priority for land managers in many parts of the world. Relationships between functional trait values and the environment from which seed sources are collected can provide important insights into patterns of local adaptation and guidelines for seed transfer. However, little is known about which functional traits exhibit genetic differentiation across populations of restoration species and thus may contribute to local adaptation. Here, we report the results of a common garden experiment aimed at assessing genetic (including ploidy level) and environmental regulation of several functional traits among populations of Bouteloua gracilis, a dominant C4 grass and the most highly utilized restoration species across much of the Colorado Plateau. We found that leaf size and specific leaf area (SLA) varied significantly among populations, and were strongly correlated with the source population environment from which seeds were collected. However, variation in ploidy level had no significant effect on functional traits. Leaves of plants grown from commercial seed releases were significantly larger and had lower SLA than those from natural populations, a result that is concordant with the overall relation between climate and these two functional traits. We suggest that the patterns of functional trait variation shown here may extend to other grass species in the western USA, and may serve as useful proxies for more extensive genecology research. Furthermore, we argue that care should be taken to develop commercial seed lines with functional trait values that match those of natural populations occupying climates similar to target restoration sites.

  11. A Model for Local Experiential Learning: Teacher Workshop on Mangroves, Oceans & Climate in Kosrae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, A. E.; Sachs, J. P.; Barros, C.; Low, M.

    2016-02-01

    A curriculum for an intensive one-day workshop about mangroves, oceans, and climate has been developed for school teachers in the Federated States of Micronesia. The goals of the workshop are for teachers/attendees to be able to (i) explain what salinity is and describe how it varies from the ocean to the river, (ii) explain what a mangrove is and describe adaptations mangroves have developed that allow them to live in saline or brackish water and adjust to changing sea level, and (iii) develop a grade-appropriate poster on mangroves or salinity and one interactive activity that uses the poster to engage students in learning. These objectives are accomplished by field trips to the ocean and mangrove swamp, where each participant learns how to measure salinity and identify mangrove species. The hands-on field component is followed by a poster development session where participants design, present, and share feedback on their posters that they will bring back to their classrooms. This experience allows schoolteachers to intimately explore their coastal ecosystems and gain new perspectives about their environment that they can take back to their students. The workshop was designed through a collaborative effort between Pacific Resources for Education and Learning (PREL) NSF Pacific Climate Education Partnership, University of Washington professors, graduate students and undergraduate students, Kosrae Department of Education, Kosrae Island Resource Management Authority (KIRMA), Kosrae Island Conservation and Safety Organization (KCSO), and local Kosraean schoolteachers and administrators. The workshop was offered to elementary school teachers from 4 of 5 school districts in 2013, 2014, and 2015, led by University of Washington scientists and PREL. Local education officials and PREL staff will lead future workshops.

  12. UK's climate change levy: cost effectiveness, competitiveness and environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varma, Adarsh [Hull Univ., School of Economic Studies, Hull (United Kingdom)

    2003-01-01

    This paper intends to examine the cost effectiveness of UK's climate change levy (CCL), its implications on competitiveness of firms and the environmental impact. The paper briefly describes the levy and analyses it under the canons of a good taxation policy. The economic implications of the levy are discussed with theoretical and empirical perspectives. Change in net exports, investment patterns and productivity and inclusion of compliance cost forms the basis for analysing the effect on competitiveness. It discusses the options available to firms to safeguard their competitiveness if it is adversely affected by the CCL. A description of the current scenario of the levy since its inception is also presented. The paper argues the need for a comprehensive policy involving the use of standards, emission trading as well as energy taxes to achieve emission and energy-use reductions. A focal point of this paper is to elucidate the pros and cons of the CCL (energy tax) with respect to an emission trading scheme. (Author)

  13. As Bad as it Gets: How Climate Damage Functions Affect Growth and the Social Cost of Carbon

    OpenAIRE

    Bretschger, Lukas; Pattakou, Aimilia

    2017-01-01

    The paper analyzes the effects of varying climate impacts on the social cost of carbon and economic growth. We use polynomial damage functions in a model of an endogenously growing two-sector economy. The framework includes nonrenewable natural resources which cause greenhouse gas emissions; pollution stock harms capital and reduces economic growth. We find a big effect of the selected damage function on the social cost of carbon and a significant impact on the growth rate. In our calibration...

  14. Climate change adaptation, damages and fossil fuel dependence. An RETD position paper on the costs of inaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katofsky, Ryan; Stanberry, Matt; Hagenstad, Marca; Frantzis, Lisa

    2011-07-15

    The Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (RETD) agreement initiated this project to advance the understanding of the ''Costs of Inaction'', i.e. the costs of climate change adaptation, damages and fossil fuel dependence. A quantitative estimate was developed as well as a better understanding of the knowledge gaps and research needs. The project also included some conceptual work on how to better integrate the analyses of mitigation, adaptation, damages and fossil fuel dependence in energy scenario modelling.

  15. Role of community based local institution for climate change adaptation in the Teesta riverine area of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Rezaul Karim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation is one of the most crucial issues in developing countries like Bangladesh. The main objective was to understand the linkage of participation with Community Based Adaptation (CBA to climate change. Institutional framework following different types of conceptual theories (collective action, group, game and social learning theory was utilized to analyze the participatory process in local community level Village Disaster Mangement Committee (VDMC that works in collaboration with local government. Field level data was collected through interview and group discussion during 25 April to 30 May 2015 in the Teesta riverine area of northern Bangladesh. Results showed that flood and drought were the major climate change impacts in the study area, and various participatory tools were used for risk assessment and undertaking action plans to overcome the climate change challenges by the group VDMC. Participation in VDMC generated both relational and technical outcomes. The relational outcomes are the informal institutional changes through which local community adopt technological adaptation measures. Although, limitations like bargaining problem, free riding or conflict were found in collective decision making, but the initiation of local governance like VDMC has brought various institutional change in the communities in terms of adaptation practices. More than 80% VDMC and around 40–55% non-VDMC household respondents agreed that overall community based adaptation process was successful in the previous year. They believed that some innovative practices had been brought in the community through VDMC action for climate change adaptation. No doubt that the CBA has achieved good progress to achieve the government Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM strategy of climate change adaptation. But, there is still lack of coordination among local government, NGOs and civil partners in working together. Research related to socio

  16. How Do Dietary Choices Influence the Energy-System Cost of Stabilizing the Climate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bryngelsson

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We investigate how different global dietary scenarios affect the constraints on, and costs of, transforming the energy system to reach a global temperature stabilization limit of 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. A global food and agriculture model, World Food Supply Model (WOFSUM, is used to create three dietary scenarios and to calculate the CH4 and N2O emissions resulting from their respective food-supply chains. The diets are: (i a reference diet based on current trends; (ii a diet with high (reference-level meat consumption, but without ruminant products (i.e., no beef, lamb, or dairy, only pork and poultry; and (iii a vegan diet. The estimated CH4 and N2O emissions from food production are fed into a coupled energy and climate-system optimization model to quantify the energy system implications of the different dietary scenarios, given a 2 °C target. The results indicate that a phase-out of ruminant products substantially increases the emission space for CO2 by about 250 GtC which reduces the necessary pace of the energy system transition and cuts the net present value energy-system mitigation costs by 25%, for staying below 2 °C. Importantly, the additional cost savings with a vegan diet––beyond those achieved with a phase-out of ruminant products––are marginal (only one additional percentage point. This means that a general reduction of meat consumption is a far less effective strategy for meeting the 2 °C target than a reduction of beef and dairy consumption.

  17. Regional aerosol emissions and temperature response: Local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica; Hansson, Hans-Christen

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols vary substantially over the globe and the short atmospheric residence time of aerosols leads to a highly uneven radiative forcing distribution, both spatially and temporally. Regional aerosol radiative forcing can, nevertheless, exert a large influence on the temperature field away from the forcing region through changes in heat transport or the atmospheric or ocean circulation. Moreover, the global temperature response distribution to aerosol forcing may vary depending on the geographical location of the forcing. In other words, the climate sensitivity in one region can vary depending on the location of the forcing. The surface temperature distribution response to changes in sulphate aerosol forcing caused by sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission perturbations in four different regions is investigated using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). The four regions, Europe, North America, East and South Asia, are all regions with historically high aerosol emissions and are relevant from both an air-quality and climate policy perspective. All emission perturbations are defined relative to the year 2000 emissions provided for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The global mean temperature change per unit SO2 emission change is similar for all four regions for similar magnitudes of emissions changes. However, the global temperature change per unit SO2 emission in simulations where regional SO2 emission were removed is substantially higher than that obtained in simulations where regional SO2 emissions were increased. Thus, the climate sensitivity to regional SO2 emissions perturbations depends on the magnitude of the emission perturbation in NorESM. On regional scale, on the other hand, the emission perturbations in different geographical locations lead to different regional temperature responses, both locally and in remote regions. The results from the model simulations are used to construct regional temperature potential

  18. Social representations of climate change in Swedish lay focus groups: local or distant, gradual or catastrophic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibeck, Victoria

    2014-02-01

    This paper explores social representations of climate change, investigating how climate change is discussed by Swedish laypeople interacting in focus group interviews. The analysis focuses on prototypical examples and metaphors, which were key devices for objectifying climate change representations. The paper analyzes how the interaction of focus group participants with other speakers, ideas, arguments, and broader social representations shaped their representations of climate change. Climate change was understood as a global but distant issue with severe consequences. There was a dynamic tension between representations of climate change as a gradual vs. unpredictable process. Implications for climate change communication are discussed.

  19. Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

    2015-05-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Evaluation of outdoor human thermal sensation of local climate zones based on long-term database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, János; Skarbit, Nóra; Gál, Tamás

    2018-02-01

    This study gives a comprehensive picture on the diurnal and seasonal general outdoor human thermal sensation levels in different urban quarters based on long-term (almost 3 years) data series from urban and rural areas of Szeged, Hungary. It is supplemented with a case study dealing with an extreme heat wave period which is more and more frequent in the last decades in the study area. The intra-urban comparison is based on a thermal aspect classification of the surface, namely, the local climate zone (LCZ) system, on an urban meteorological station network and on the utilization of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) comfort index with categories calibrated to the local population. The selected stations represent sunlit areas well inside the LCZ areas. The results show that the seasonal and annual average magnitudes of the thermal load exerted by LCZs in the afternoon and evening follow their LCZ numbers. It is perfectly in line with the LCZ concept originally concentrating only on air temperature ( T air) differences between the zones. Our results justified the subdivision of urban areas into LCZs and give significant support to the application possibilities of the LCZ concept as a broader term covering different thermal phenomena.

  1. MAPPING LOCAL CLIMATE ZONES WITH A VECTOR-BASED GIS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Lelovics

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study we determined Local Climate Zones in a South-Hungarian city, using vector-based and raster-based databases. We calculated seven of the originally proposed ten physical (geometric, surface cover and radiative properties for areas which are based on the mobile temperature measurement campaigns earlier carried out in this city.As input data we applied 3D building database (earlier created with photogrammetric methods, 2D road database, topographic map, aerial photographs, remotely sensed reflectance information from RapidEye satellite image and our local knowledge about the area. The values of the properties were calculated by GIS methods developed for this purpose.We derived for the examined areas and applied for classification sky view factor, mean building height, terrain roughness class, building surface fraction, pervious surface fraction, impervious surface fraction and albedo.Six built and one land cover LCZ classes could be detected with this method on our study area. From each class one circle area was selected, which is representative for that class. Their thermal reactions were examined with the application of mobile temperature measurement dataset. The comparison was made in cases, when the weather was clear and calm and the surface was dry. We found that compact built-in types have more temperature surplus than open ones, and midrise types also have more than lowrise ones. According to our primary results, these categories provide a useful opportunity for intra- and inter-urban comparisons.

  2. Emissions trading to combat climate change: The impact of scheme design on transaction costs

    OpenAIRE

    Betz, Regina

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the likely impact of emissions trading design on transaction costs. Transaction costs include both the costs for the private sector to comply with the scheme rules and the costs of scheme administration. In economic theory transaction costs are often assumed to be zero. But transaction costs are real costs and there is no reason for treating them differently to other costs. Thus, in setting up an emissions trading scheme, transaction costs have to be taken into account in ...

  3. Increasing bioenergy production on arable land: Does the regional and local climate respond? Germany as a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tölle, Merja H.; Gutjahr, Oliver; Busch, Gerald; Thiele, Jan C.

    2014-03-01

    The extent and magnitude of land cover change effect on local and regional future climate during the vegetation period due to different forms of bioenergy plants are quantified for extreme temperatures and energy fluxes. Furthermore, we vary the spatial extent of plant allocation on arable land and simulate alternative availability of transpiration water to mimic both rainfed agriculture and irrigation. We perform climate simulations down to 1 km scale for 1970-1975 C20 and 2070-2075 A1B over Germany with Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling in Climate Mode. Here an impact analysis indicates a strong local influence due to land cover changes. The regional effect is decreased by two thirds of the magnitude of the local-scale impact. The changes are largest locally for irrigated poplar with decreasing maximum temperatures by 1°C in summer months and increasing specific humidity by 0.15 g kg-1. The increased evapotranspiration may result in more precipitation. The increase of surface radiative fluxes Rnet due to changes in latent and sensible heat is estimated by 5 W m-2locally. Moreover, increases in the surface latent heat flux cause strong local evaporative cooling in the summer months, whereas the associated regional cooling effect is pronounced by increases in cloud cover. The changes on a regional scale are marginal and not significant. Increasing bioenergy production on arable land may result in local temperature changes but not in substantial regional climate change in Germany. We show the effect of agricultural practices during climate transitions in spring and fall.

  4. Lake and wetland ecosystem services measuring water storage and local climate regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christina P.; Jiang, Bo; Bohn, Theodore J.; Lee, Kai N.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Ma, Dongchun; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2017-04-01

    Developing interdisciplinary methods to measure ecosystem services is a scientific priority, however, progress remains slow in part because we lack ecological production functions (EPFs) to quantitatively link ecohydrological processes to human benefits. In this study, we tested a new approach, combining a process-based model with regression models, to create EPFs to evaluate water storage and local climate regulation from a green infrastructure project on the Yongding River in Beijing, China. Seven artificial lakes and wetlands were established to improve local water storage and human comfort; evapotranspiration (ET) regulates both services. Managers want to minimize the trade-off between water losses and cooling to sustain water supplies while lowering the heat index (HI) to improve human comfort. We selected human benefit indicators using water storage targets and Beijing's HI, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model to determine the change in ET from the new ecosystems. We created EPFs to quantify the ecosystem services as marginal values [Δfinal ecosystem service/Δecohydrological process]: (1) Δwater loss (lake evaporation/volume)/Δdepth and (2) Δsummer HI/ΔET. We estimate the new ecosystems increased local ET by 0.7 mm/d (20.3 W/m2) on the Yongding River. However, ET rates are causing water storage shortfalls while producing no improvements in human comfort. The shallow lakes/wetlands are vulnerable to drying when inflow rates fluctuate, low depths lead to higher evaporative losses, causing water storage shortfalls with minimal cooling effects. We recommend managers make the lakes deeper to increase water storage, and plant shade trees to improve human comfort in the parks.

  5. Use of several Cloud Computing approaches for climate modelling: performance, costs and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Montes, Diego A.; Añel Cabanelas, Juan A.; Wallom, David C. H.; Arribas, Alberto; Uhe, Peter; Caderno, Pablo V.; Pena, Tomas F.

    2017-04-01

    Cloud Computing is a technological option that offers great possibilities for modelling in geosciences. We have studied how two different climate models, HadAM3P-HadRM3P and CESM-WACCM, can be adapted in two different ways to run on Cloud Computing Environments from three different vendors: Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Also, we have evaluated qualitatively how the use of Cloud Computing can affect the allocation of resources by funding bodies and issues related to computing security, including scientific reproducibility. Our first experiments were developed using the well known ClimatePrediction.net (CPDN), that uses BOINC, over the infrastructure from two cloud providers, namely Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services (hereafter AWS). For this comparison we ran a set of thirteen month climate simulations for CPDN in Azure and AWS using a range of different virtual machines (VMs) for HadRM3P (50 km resolution over South America CORDEX region) nested in the global atmosphere-only model HadAM3P. These simulations were run on a single processor and took between 3 and 5 days to compute depending on the VM type. The last part of our simulation experiments was running WACCM over different VMS on the Google Compute Engine (GCE) and make a comparison with the supercomputer (SC) Finisterrae1 from the Centro de Supercomputacion de Galicia. It was shown that GCE gives better performance than the SC for smaller number of cores/MPI tasks but the model throughput shows clearly how the SC performance is better after approximately 100 cores (related with network speed and latency differences). From a cost point of view, Cloud Computing moves researchers from a traditional approach where experiments were limited by the available hardware resources to monetary resources (how many resources can be afforded). As there is an increasing movement and recommendation for budgeting HPC projects on this technology (budgets can be calculated in a more realistic way) we could see a shift on

  6. The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

    2012-04-01

    This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

  7. Sensitivity of tree ring growth to local and large-scale climate variability in a region of Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venegas-González, Alejandro; Chagas, Matheus Peres; Anholetto Júnior, Claudio Roberto; Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Tomazello Filho, Mario

    2016-01-01

    We explored the relationship between tree growth in two tropical species and local and large-scale climate variability in Southeastern Brazil. Tree ring width chronologies of Tectona grandis (teak) and Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) trees were compared with local (Water Requirement Satisfaction Index—WRSI, Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI, and Palmer Drought Severity Index—PDSI) and large-scale climate indices that analyze the equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (Trans-Niño Index-TNI and Niño-3.4-N3.4) and atmospheric circulation variations in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctic Oscillation-AAO). Teak trees showed positive correlation with three indices in the current summer and fall. A significant correlation between WRSI index and Caribbean pine was observed in the dry season preceding tree ring formation. The influence of large-scale climate patterns was observed only for TNI and AAO, where there was a radial growth reduction in months preceding the growing season with positive values of the TNI in teak trees and radial growth increase (decrease) during December (March) to February (May) of the previous (current) growing season with positive phase of the AAO in teak (Caribbean pine) trees. The development of a new dendroclimatological study in Southeastern Brazil sheds light to local and large-scale climate influence on tree growth in recent decades, contributing in future climate change studies.

  8. The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

    2002-01-01

    This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

  9. Influence of neighbourhood information on 'Local Climate Zone' mapping in heterogeneous cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdonck, Marie-Leen; Okujeni, Akpona; van der Linden, Sebastian; Demuzere, Matthias; De Wulf, Robert; Van Coillie, Frieke

    2017-10-01

    Local climate zone (LCZ) mapping is an emerging field in urban climate research. LCZs potentially provide an objective framework to assess urban form and function worldwide. The scheme is currently being used to globally map LCZs as a part of the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) initiative. So far, most of the LCZ maps lack proper quantitative assessment, challenging the generic character of the WUDAPT workflow. Using the standard method introduced by the WUDAPT community difficulties arose concerning the built zones due to high levels of heterogeneity. To overcome this problem a contextual classifier is adopted in the mapping process. This paper quantitatively assesses the influence of neighbourhood information on the LCZ mapping result of three cities in Belgium: Antwerp, Brussels and Ghent. Overall accuracies for the maps were respectively 85.7 ± 0.5, 79.6 ± 0.9, 90.2 ± 0.4%. The approach presented here results in overall accuracies of 93.6 ± 0.2, 92.6 ± 0.3 and 95.6 ± 0.3% for Antwerp, Brussels and Ghent. The results thus indicate a positive influence of neighbourhood information for all study areas with an increase in overall accuracies of 7.9, 13.0 and 5.4%. This paper reaches two main conclusions. Firstly, evidence was introduced on the relevance of a quantitative accuracy assessment in LCZ mapping, showing that the accuracies reported in previous papers are not easily achieved. Secondly, the method presented in this paper proves to be highly effective in Belgian cities, and given its open character shows promise for application in other heterogeneous cities worldwide.

  10. Drought timing and local climate determine the sensitivity of eastern temperate forests to drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Orangeville, Loïc; Maxwell, Justin; Kneeshaw, Daniel; Pederson, Neil; Duchesne, Louis; Logan, Travis; Houle, Daniel; Arseneault, Dominique; Beier, Colin M; Bishop, Daniel A; Druckenbrod, Daniel; Fraver, Shawn; Girard, François; Halman, Joshua; Hansen, Chris; Hart, Justin L; Hartmann, Henrik; Kaye, Margot; Leblanc, David; Manzoni, Stefano; Ouimet, Rock; Rayback, Shelly; Rollinson, Christine R; Phillips, Richard P

    2018-02-20

    Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi-arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (ENA) if tree growth is significantly curtailed by drought. Investigations of the environmental conditions that determine drought sensitivity are critically needed to accurately predict ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We matched site factors with the growth responses to drought of 10,753 trees across mesic forests of ENA, representing 24 species and 346 stands, to determine the broad-scale drivers of drought sensitivity for the dominant trees in ENA. Here we show that two factors-the timing of drought, and the atmospheric demand for water (i.e., local potential evapotranspiration; PET)-are stronger drivers of drought sensitivity than soil and stand characteristics. Drought-induced reductions in tree growth were greatest when the droughts occurred during early-season peaks in radial growth, especially for trees growing in the warmest, driest regions (i.e., highest PET). Further, mean species trait values (rooting depth and ψ 50 ) were poor predictors of drought sensitivity, as intraspecific variation in sensitivity was equal to or greater than interspecific variation in 17 of 24 species. From a general circulation model ensemble, we find that future increases in early-season PET may exacerbate these effects, and potentially offset gains in C uptake and storage in ENA owing to other global change factors. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

    2017-09-01

    High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

  12. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

    2018-06-01

    High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

  13. Climate Change and Coastal Zones. An Overview of the State-of-the-Art on Regional and Local Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sterr, H.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reese, S.

    2000-06-01

    This paper provides an overview of the latest developments in methodologies for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zones to climate change at regional and local scales. The focus of vulnerability assessment in coastal zones used to be on erosion and land loss due to sea-level rise. Methodologies now increasingly consider the wide range of climate and impact variables that play a part in determining coastal vulnerability, as well as non-climatic developments. The paper presents a conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment that identifies a number of system components that can be considered determinants of vulnerability. It then goes on to outline a number of steps that are required for the actual assessment of coastal vulnerability, such as scenario development, data collection and impact assessment. The approach is illustrated using a regional and local case study in Germany

  14. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France. Second phase report. September 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    Firstly, this report presents the context and challenges of works dealing with climate change adaptation assessment: observations and perspectives of climate change, concepts and definitions of adaptation to climate change, adaptation within national, European and international context, objectives and organisation of the France's inter-departmental Group. It describes the chosen methodology: hypothesis, methodological tools (climate model), bibliographical tool, and heat wave counting methodology. It discusses the present results, outlines the encountered difficulties and discusses the perspectives for future work

  15. High-ambitious local climate policies to reduce CO2 emissions : Municipal strategies to approach homeowners in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tambach, M.

    2009-01-01

    Municipalities are the constructors of local climate policies and the upholders of building law. But regarding the existing housing stock, they are lacking effective legal instruments to improve the energy efficiency of this stock, which is occupied by different homeowner categories. Regarding

  16. Modelled spatiotemporal variability of outdoor thermal comfort in local climate zones of the city of Brno, Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Geletič, Jan; Lehnert, M.; Savić, S.; Milošević, D.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 624, 15 May (2018), s. 385-395 ISSN 0048-9697 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : HUMIDEX * MUKLIMO_3 * air temperature * relative humidity * local climate zones * heat wave Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.900, year: 2016

  17. Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Narita, D.; Anthoff, D.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2010-01-01

    Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. In the

  18. Using a community-driven approach to identify local forest and climate change priorities in Teslin, Yukon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joleen Timko

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The likelihood of addressing the complex environmental, economic, and social/cultural issues associated with local climate change impacts is enhanced when collaborative partnerships with local people are established. Using a community-centered approach in the Teslin region of Canada’s Yukon Territory, we utilized our research skills to respond to local needs for information by facilitating both an internal community process to clarify traditional and local knowledge, values, and perceptions on locally identified priorities, while gathering external information to enable local people to make sound decisions. Specifically, we sought to clarify local perceptions surrounding climate change impacts on fire risk and wildlife habitat, and the potential adaptation strategies appropriate and feasible within the Teslin Tlingit Traditional Territory. This paper provides a characterization of the study region and our project team; provides background on the interview and data collection process; presents our key results; and discusses the importance of our findings and charts a way forward for our continued work with the people in the Teslin region. This approach presents an excellent opportunity to help people holistically connect a range of local values, including fire risk mitigation, habitat enhancement, economic development, and enhanced social health.

  19. Local climate change capacity : comparing four municipalities in the Dutch Twente region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Vegt, Arjen; Hoppe, Thomas; Stegmaier, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is seen as a key societal challenge to cities and regions. City governments design and implement policies to cope with climate change: on the one hand by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and spurring low carbon transition; on the other hand by adapting to climate change, hence

  20. A support system for assessing local vulnerability to weather and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coletti, Alex; Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The changing number and nature of weather- and climate-related natural hazards is causing more communities to need to assess their vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments, however, often require considerable expertise and resources that are not available or too expensive for many communities. To meet the need for an easy-to-use, cost-effective vulnerability assessment tool for communities, a prototype online vulnerability assessment support system was built and tested. This prototype tool guides users through a stakeholder-based vulnerability assessment that breaks the process into four easy-to-implement steps. Data sources are integrated in the online environment so that perceived risks—defined and prioritized qualitatively by users—can be compared and discussed against the impacts that past events have had on the community. The support system is limited in scope, and the locations of the case studies do not provide a sufficiently broad range of sample cases. The addition of more publically available hazard databases combined with future improvements in the support system architecture and software will expand opportunities for testing and fully implementing the support system.

  1. Low-cost formation of bulk and localized polymer-derived carbon nanodomains from polydimethylsiloxane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcántara, Juan Carlos Castro; Cerda Zorrilla, Mariana; Cabriales, Lucia; Rossano, Luis Manuel León; Hautefeuille, Mathieu

    2015-01-01

    We present two simple alternative methods to form polymer-derived carbon nanodomains in a controlled fashion and at low cost, using custom-made chemical vapour deposition and selective laser ablation with a commercial CD-DVD platform. Both processes presented shiny and dark residual materials after the polymer combustion and according to micro-Raman spectroscopy of the domains, graphitic nanocrystals and carbon nanotubes have successfully been produced by the combustion of polydimethylsiloxane layers. The fabrication processes and characterization of the byproduct materials are reported. We demonstrate that CVD led to bulk production of graphitic nanocrystals and single-walled carbon nanotubes while direct laser ablation may be employed for the formation of localized fluorescent nanodots. In the latter case, graphitic nanodomains and multi-wall carbon nanotubes are left inside microchannels and preliminary results seem to indicate that laser ablation could offer a tuning control of the nature and optical properties of the nanodomains that are left inside micropatterns with on-demand geometries. These low-cost methods look particularly promising for the formation of carbon nanoresidues with controlled properties and in applications where high integration is desired.

  2. Self-Configuring Indoor Localization Based on Low-Cost Ultrasonic Range Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Can Basaran

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In smart environments, target tracking is an essential service used by numerous applications from activity recognition to personalized infotaintment. The target tracking relies on sensors with known locations to estimate and keep track of the path taken by the target, and hence, it is crucial to have an accurate map of such sensors. However, the need for manually entering their locations after deployment and expecting them to remain fixed, significantly limits the usability of target tracking. To remedy this drawback, we present a self-configuring and device-free localization protocol based on genetic algorithms that autonomously identifies the geographic topology of a network of ultrasonic range sensors as well as automatically detects any change in the established network structure in less than a minute and generates a new map within seconds. The proposed protocol significantly reduces hardware and deployment costs thanks to the use of low-cost off-the-shelf sensors with no manual configuration. Experiments on two real testbeds of different sizes show that the proposed protocol achieves an error of 7.16~17.53 cm in topology mapping, while also tracking a mobile target with an average error of 11.71~18.43 cm and detecting displacements of 1.41~3.16 m in approximately 30 s.

  3. Local and cross-seasonal associations of climate and land use with abundance of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, Sarah P.; Ries, Leslie; Oberhasuer, Karen S.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Zipkin, Elise F.

    2017-01-01

    Quantifying how climate and land use factors drive population dynamics at regional scales is complex because it depends on the extent of spatial and temporal synchrony among local populations, and the integration of population processes throughout a species’ annual cycle. We modeled weekly, site-specific summer abundance (1994–2013) of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus at sites across Illinois, USA to assess relative associations of monarch abundance with climate and land use variables during the winter, spring, and summer stages of their annual cycle. We developed negative binomial regression models to estimate monarch abundance during recruitment in Illinois as a function of local climate, site-specific crop cover, and county-level herbicide (glyphosate) application. We also incorporated cross-seasonal covariates, including annual abundance of wintering monarchs in Mexico and climate conditions during spring migration and breeding in Texas, USA. We provide the first empirical evidence of a negative association between county-level glyphosate application and local abundance of adult monarchs, particularly in areas of concentrated agriculture. However, this association was only evident during the initial years of the adoption of herbicide-resistant crops (1994–2003). We also found that wetter and, to a lesser degree, cooler springs in Texas were associated with higher summer abundances in Illinois, as were relatively cool local summer temperatures in Illinois. Site-specific abundance of monarchs averaged approximately one fewer per site from 2004–2013 than during the previous decade, suggesting a recent decline in local abundance of monarch butterflies on their summer breeding grounds in Illinois. Our results demonstrate that seasonal climate and land use are associated with trends in adult monarch abundance, and our approach highlights the value of considering fine-resolution temporal fluctuations in population-level responses to environmental

  4. A novel cost-effective parallel narrowband ANC system with local secondary-path estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delegà, Riccardo; Bernasconi, Giancarlo; Piroddi, Luigi

    2017-08-01

    Many noise reduction applications are targeted at multi-tonal disturbances. Active noise control (ANC) solutions for such problems are generally based on the combination of multiple adaptive notch filters. Both the performance and the computational cost are negatively affected by an increase in the number of controlled frequencies. In this work we study a different modeling approach for the secondary path, based on the estimation of various small local models in adjacent frequency subbands, that greatly reduces the impact of reference-filtering operations in the ANC algorithm. Furthermore, in combination with a frequency-specific step size tuning method it provides a balanced attenuation performance over the whole controlled frequency range (and particularly in the high end of the range). Finally, the use of small local models is greatly beneficial for the reactivity of the online secondary path modeling algorithm when the characteristics of the acoustic channels are time-varying. Several simulations are provided to illustrate the positive features of the proposed method compared to other well-known techniques.

  5. Community financing of local ivermectin distribution in Nigeria: potential payment and cost-recovery outlook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onwujekwe, O E; Shu, E N; Okonkwo, P O

    2000-04-01

    The preferred payment mechanism in a community financing scheme for local ivermectin distribution was elicited from randomly selected household heads from three communities in Nigeria using interviewer-administered structured questionnaires. The majority of the respondents in the three communities were prepared to pay for local ivermectin distribution. Additionally, the average amounts the respondents were prepared to pay per person treated ($0.28, $0.30 and $0.38 in Nike, Achi and Toro, respectively) were all more than the $0.20 ceiling recommended by the partners of the African Programme on Onchocerciasis Control (APOC). Thus, the cost-recovery outlook is bright in these communities. However, the preferred payment modality varied. Fee-for-service was the predominant payment modality in the Achi and Nike communities, while the Toro community preferred pre-payment. This study demonstrates that many communities have different payment preferences for endemic disease control efforts. This knowledge will help in developing acceptable and sustainable schemes. The imposition of unacceptable payment mechanisms will lead to an unwillingness to pay.

  6. Cost of preventing workplace heat-related illness through worker breaks and the benefit of climate-change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takakura, Jun'ya; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Honda, Yasushi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2017-06-01

    The exposure of workers to hot environments is expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to prevent heat-related illness, it is recommended that workers take breaks during working hours. However, this would lead to reductions in worktime and labor productivity. In this study, we estimate the economic cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks associated with climate change under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We calculate the worktime reduction based on the recommendation of work/rest ratio and the estimated future wet bulb glove temperature, which is an index of heat stresses. Corresponding GDP losses (cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks) are estimated using a computable general equilibrium model throughout this century. Under the highest emission scenario, GDP losses in 2100 will range from 2.6 to 4.0% compared to the current climate conditions. On the other hand, GDP losses will be less than 0.5% if the 2.0 °C goal is achieved. The benefit of climate-change mitigation for avoiding worktime loss is comparable to the cost of mitigation (cost of the greenhouse gas emission reduction) under the 2.0 °C goal. The relationship between the cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks and global average temperature rise is approximately linear, and the difference in economic loss between the 1.5 °C goal and the 2.0 °C goal is expected to be approximately 0.3% of global GDP in 2100. Although climate mitigation and socioeconomic development can limit the vulnerable regions and sectors, particularly in developing countries, outdoor work is still expected to be affected. The effectiveness of some adaptation measures such as additional installation of air conditioning devices or shifting the time of day for working are also suggested. In order to reduce the economic impacts, adaptation measures should also be implemented as well as pursing ambitious climate change

  7. Impact of Land Use Change on the Local Climate over the Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiming Jin

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Observational data show that the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI has a significant downward trend over the east Tibetan Plateau (TP, while a warming trend is found in the same area. Further analysis indicates that this warming trend mainly results from the nighttime warming. The Single-Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM version 3.1 developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research is used to investigate the role of land use change in the TP local climate system and isolate the contribution of land use change to the warming. Two sets of SCAM simulations were performed at the Xinghai station that is located near the center of the TP Sanjiang (three rivers Nature Reserve where the downward LAI trend is largest. These simulations were forced with the high and low LAIs. The modeling results indicate that, when the LAI changes from high to low, the daytime temperature has a slight decrease, while the nighttime temperature increases significantly, which is consistent with the observations. The modeling results further show that the lower surface roughness length plays a significant role in affecting the nighttime temperature increase.

  8. The Global and Local Climatic Response to the Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huybers, K. M.; Singh, H.; Steiger, N. J.; Frierson, D. M.; Steig, E. J.; Bitz, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    Glaciologists have suggested that a relatively small external forcing may compromise the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Further, there is compelling physical evidence that the WAIS has collapsed in the past, at times when the mean global temperature was only a few degrees warmer than it is today. In addition to a rapid increase in global sea level, the collapse of the WAIS could also affect the global circulation of the atmosphere. Ice sheets are some of the largest topographic features on Earth, causing large regional anomalies in albedo and radiative balance. Our work uses idealized aquaplanet models in tandem with a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model (CCSM4) to compare the atmospheric, radiative, and oceanic response to a complete loss of the WAIS. Initial findings indicate that the loss of the WAIS leads to a weakening and equator-ward shift of the zonal winds, a development of strong zonal asymmetries in the meridional wind, and a northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. We aim to characterize how the local and global climate is affected by the presence of the WAIS, and how changes in the distribution of Southern Hemisphere ice may be represented in the proxy record.

  9. The Local-Level Management of Climate Change: the Case of Urban Passenger Transportation in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cochran, Ian Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The reduction of GHG emissions is one of the largest and most pressing collective-action problems facing humanity. Addressing this transversal, trans-boundary policy challenge requires action at multiple scales of governance: from behavioral changes by individuals to modifications of local, national and international regulatory frameworks and decision-making processes. Taking an interdisciplinary approach, this project draws on theories on collective action, institutional economics, multilevel governance, and indicators in decision making to analyze what appears to be an increasingly poly-centric governance approach to achieving cross-scale action on GHG mitigation. This dissertation addresses the over-arching question of what governance changes are needed to deliver lasting GHG emissions reductions in the urban passenger transport sector in France? This analysis suggests that achieving greenhouse gas mitigation is dependent not only on the ability of actors to coordinate action, but also on the information tools needed to integrate these issues into decision-making at multiple levels of government and across policy priorities. Thus, GHG mitigation must be linked as an often-complementary issue with existing policy priorities. The findings resulting from this dissertation have a number of contributions to make both to the theoretical literature as well as to general policy practice and the specific decision-making process in France in terms of transport, urban planning and climate governance. (author)

  10. Impact of local adaptation measures and regional climate change on perceived temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoetter, Robert; Grawe, David; Hoffmann, Peter; Kirschner, Peter; Heinke Schluenzen, K. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Graetz, Angelika [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Freiburg (Germany). Zentrum fuer Medizin-Meteorologische Forschung

    2013-04-15

    The perceived temperature (PT) is a measure for the quantification of human thermal comfort developed by the German Meteorological Service (DWD). In the present article, the sensitivity of PT on air temperature, water vapour pressure, wind speed, mean radiant temperature, street canyon width, and building heights is investigated. The mesoscale atmospheric model METRAS is integrated for a domain covering the city of Hamburg at 250 m horizontal resolution to calculate the meteorological input data for PT. The sensitivities of PT are determined by automatic differentiation of the basic DWD program. The sensitivities show how local adaptation measures and regional climate change can influence PT. The sensitivities also allow to estimate how accurate different input variables need to be known in order to achieve a desired accuracy in PT. The results are discussed in detail for 10 June 2007, a cloudless day with advection of warm air masses from south-east. A comparison with results obtained for different synoptic situations during summer is made. The sensitivities of PT on air temperature, water vapour pressure and mean radiant temperature are higher during warm and humid conditions than in situations with thermal comfort. The sensitivity of PT on wind speed is highest for low wind speeds. Around noon, increasing the building heights by 5 m can reduce PT up to 2.4 K due to shading effects in street canyons with aspect ratios above 0.5. After sunset, increasing the building heights by 5 m tends to moderately increase PT due to increased longwave radiation. (orig.)

  11. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  12. Using Online Dialogues to Connect Local Leaders and Climate Experts: Methods, Feedback and Lessons Learned from the Resilience Dialogues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, M.; Pandya, R.; Weaver, C. P.; Zerbonne, S.; Bennett, N.; Spangler, B.

    2017-12-01

    Inclusive, multi-stakeholder dialogue, participatory planning and actionable science are necessary for just and effective climate resilience outcomes. How can we support that in practice? The Resilience Dialogues launched a public Beta in 2016-2017 to allow scientists and resilience practitioners to engage with local leaders from 10 communities around the US through a series of facilitated, online dialogues. We developed two, one-week dialogues for each community: one to consider ways to respond to observed and anticipated climate impacts through a resilience lens, and one to identify next steps and resources to advance key priorities. We divided the communities into three cohorts and refined the structure and facilitation strategy for these dialogues from one to the next based on participant feedback. This adaptive method helped participants engage in the dialogues more effectively and develop useful results. We distributed a survey to all participants following each cohort to capture feedback on the use and utility of the dialogues. While there was room for improvement in the program's technical interface, survey participants valued the dialogues and the opportunity to engage as equals. Local leaders said the dialogues helped identify new local pathways to approach resilience priorities. They felt they benefited from focused conversation and personalized introductions to best-matched resources. Practitioners learned how local leaders seek to apply climate science, and how to effectively communicate their expertise to community leaders in support of local planning efforts. We learned there is demand for specialized dialogues on issues like communication, financing and extreme weather. Overall, the desire of participants to continue to engage through this program, and others to enter, indicates that facilitated, open conversations between experts and local leaders can break down communication and access barriers between climate services providers and end

  13. Ecosystem-Based Adaptation to Climate Change in Caribbean Small Island Developing States: Integrating Local and External Knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiina Kurvits

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS are vulnerable to climate change impacts including sea level rise, invasive species, ocean acidification, changes in rainfall patterns, increased temperatures, and changing hazard regimes including hurricanes, floods and drought. Given high dependencies in Caribbean SIDS on natural resources for livelihoods, a focus on ecosystems and their interaction with people is essential for climate change adaptation. Increasingly, ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA approaches are being highlighted as an approach to address climate change impacts. Specifically, EbA encourages the use of local and external knowledge about ecosystems to identify climate change adaptation approaches. This paper critically reviews EbA in Caribbean SIDS, focusing on the need to integrate local and external knowledge. An analysis of current EbA in the Caribbean is undertaken alongside a review of methodologies used to integrate local and external expertise for EbA. Finally key gaps, lessons learnt and suggested ways forward for EbA in Caribbean SIDS and potentially further afield are identified.

  14. The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

    2018-03-01

    Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of

  15. Nutrient requirements and low-cost balanced diets, based on seasonally available local feedstuffs, for local pigs on smallholder farms in Western Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Natalie Ann; Dewey, Catherine Elizabeth; Thomas, Lian Francesca; Lukuyu, Ben; Grace, Delia; de Lange, Cornelis

    2016-02-01

    Growth performance of pigs on smallholder farms in the tropics is low. Lack of feedstuffs, seasonal feed shortages, and feeding nutritionally unbalanced diets contribute to slow growth. Low-cost balanced diets are needed to improve pig performance. In this study, we estimated the nutrient requirements of local pigs on smallholder farms in Kenya and developed balanced low-cost diets using seasonally available local feedstuffs. Diets were formulated to provide pigs with 80 % of the nutrient density in corn and soybean meal-based (reference) diets to minimize the cost per unit of energy and other nutrients. Estimated requirements for starting and growing pigs (8 to 35 kg body weight) were as follows: digestible energy (DE) 2960 kcal/kg of dry matter (DM), standardized ileal digestibility (SID) lysine 5.8 g/kg of DM, calcium 2.8 g/kg of DM, standardized total tract digestible (STTD) phosphorous 1.4 g/kg of DM, and crude protein 85 g/kg of DM. Nutrient requirements of local pigs on smallholder farms in Kenya were lower than those of exotic breed pigs raised in commercial settings. Seasonally available local feedstuffs were used to develop low-cost balanced diets. Twenty-two diets are presented based on season, cost, and feedstuff availability. This study has broad applicability as a case study of an approach that could be applied in other tropical regions in which smallholder pig keeping is practiced and where local feedstuffs for pigs are available seasonally.

  16. Fishers’ local knowledge on impact of climate change and anthropogenic interferences on Hilsa fishery in South Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jahan, Israt; Ahsan, Dewan; Farque, Md Hasan

    2017-01-01

    fishers’ perceptions on effect of climate change and anthropogenic impact on Hilsa fishery at lower Meghna. Fishers’ ecological knowledge indicates that the stock of Hilsa is declining due to several adverse climatic conditions such as increased water temperature, salinity intrusion and low freshwater....... The study also indicates that the major constraints to adopt with the change situation are low level of human capital and restricted access to the formal credit system. Therefore, incorporation of local knowledge in governmental policy formulation and public support to improve human skill are essential...

  17. Thermal performance in three different low-cost dwellings for the tropical climate of Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leao, Marlon; Borges Leao, Erika F.T. [IGS-Institut fuer Gebaeude- und Solartechnik, Technical University Braunschweig (Germany); Jesus Albuquerque Nogueira, Marta C. de [Department of Architecture and Urbanism, UFMT, Cuiaba-MT (Brazil); Souza Nogueira, Jose de [Department of Physics and Environment, UFMT, Cuiaba-MT (Brazil)

    2008-02-15

    The aim of this project was to analyze the thermal performance of passive low-cost housing in half-humid tropical climate. The houses are located in Cuiaba-MT (15.5 southern latitude), one of the hottest cities in Brazil. The data about the typology of the houses were obtained from three representative construction systems; wood, masonry, and prefabricated. The measurements had been carried out through a year, during 20 consecutive days of each season and were evaluated by three distinct methodologies: (1) analyses of previous recommendations of the construction where the envelope materials were compared with the Brazilian standard NBR 15220-3/ 2005, (2) frequency, through dry bulb temperature with values of 18 C and 29 C, and (3) performance, by analysis of comfort levels and bioclimatic strategies processed by Analysis Bio 2.1.2 program in accordance to the adapted Bioclimatic Chart of Givoni for developing countries. (Abstract Copyright [2008], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.) [German] Ziel des Projektes war, das thermische Verhalten kostenguenstiger Passivwohnhaeuser im halbfeuchten tropischen Klima zu untersuchen. Die Haeuser befinden sich in Cuiaba-MT (15.5 suedlicher Breite), eine der heissesten Staedte Brasiliens. Die Daten ueber die Typologie der Haeuser wurden von drei repraesentativen Bauweisen gewonnen: Holz, Mauerwerk und Massivbauweise. Die Messungen wurden innerhalb eines Jahres waehrend jeweils 20 aufeinanderfolgenden Tagen in den vier Jahreszeiten durchgefuehrt und nach drei Kriterien ausgewertet: (1) Untersuchung der Konstruktionsempfehlungen und Vergleich der Aussenwandkonstruktion mit der brasilianischen Norm NBR 15220-3/2005, (2) Haeufigkeitsverteilung der Temperaturwerte 18 C und 29 C, sowie (3) thermisches Verhalten mit Untersuchung der Behaglichkeit und eines bioklimatischen Konzepts mit Hilfe der Software Analysis Bio 2.1.2 in Uebereinstimmung mit dem darin verwendeten Bioklimatischen Diagramm fuer Entwicklungslaender nach Givoni. (Abstract

  18. A stitch in time saves nine. The costs of postponing action in climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinshamn, Stein Ivar; Kvamsdal, Sturla F; Sandal, Leif K

    2011-07-01

    The main purpose of this report is to investigate the effects of postponing implementation of a carbon tax assuming that externalities associated with climate change and global warming is real. Failing to internalize these externalities will only lead to a suboptimal situation. The model applied to investigate these externalities starts with the basic relationships, namely supply and demand for fossil fuel, and an added damage term that accounts for the externality. The objective is then to maximize the sum of consumers' and producers' surplus adjusted for the externality. This must be done subject to the dynamic constraint derived from emissions of carbon associated with extraction and consumption of fossil fuel and the natural assimilation of carbon in the atmosphere. The model is solved as a closed loop feedback policy. First the optimal emission path is calculated, and then the corresponding tax path is found. As the externality dealt with here is a pure stock externality it turns out that the optimal tax is equal to the shadow cost of the pollutant. The dynamic equation for assimilation, or natural decay, of carbon is specified using a fairly sophisticated method, namely the ensemble Kalman filter. Given the relative simplicity of the model with only one type of production and one type of pollutant, this method is supposed to give a best possible estimate of the parameters in the assimilation function.The main message in this report is that it may possibly be very expensive to postpone implementation of a carbon tax as the tax rate may have to increase by up to 30 per cent and more for each year implementation is postponed in order to recover optimality in the most pessimistic cases. In the more optimistic cases an increase of down to 0.5 per cent per year may be sufficient.(eb)

  19. A stitch in time saves nine. The costs of postponing action in climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinshamn, Stein Ivar; Kvamsdal, Sturla F.; Sandal, Leif K.

    2011-07-01

    The main purpose of this report is to investigate the effects of postponing implementation of a carbon tax assuming that externalities associated with climate change and global warming is real. Failing to internalize these externalities will only lead to a suboptimal situation. The model applied to investigate these externalities starts with the basic relationships, namely supply and demand for fossil fuel, and an added damage term that accounts for the externality. The objective is then to maximize the sum of consumers' and producers' surplus adjusted for the externality. This must be done subject to the dynamic constraint derived from emissions of carbon associated with extraction and consumption of fossil fuel and the natural assimilation of carbon in the atmosphere. The model is solved as a closed loop feedback policy. First the optimal emission path is calculated, and then the corresponding tax path is found. As the externality dealt with here is a pure stock externality it turns out that the optimal tax is equal to the shadow cost of the pollutant. The dynamic equation for assimilation, or natural decay, of carbon is specified using a fairly sophisticated method, namely the ensemble Kalman filter. Given the relative simplicity of the model with only one type of production and one type of pollutant, this method is supposed to give a best possible estimate of the parameters in the assimilation function.The main message in this report is that it may possibly be very expensive to postpone implementation of a carbon tax as the tax rate may have to increase by up to 30 per cent and more for each year implementation is postponed in order to recover optimality in the most pessimistic cases. In the more optimistic cases an increase of down to 0.5 per cent per year may be sufficient.(eb)

  20. Evaluation of Delivery Costs for External Beam Radiation Therapy and Brachytherapy for Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer-Nilsen, Kristine; Hill, Colin; Trifiletti, Daniel M; Libby, Bruce; Lash, Donna H; Lain, Melody; Christodoulou, Deborah; Hodge, Constance; Showalter, Timothy N

    2018-01-01

    To evaluate the delivery costs, using time-driven activity-based costing, and reimbursement for definitive radiation therapy for locally advanced cervical cancer. Process maps were created to represent each step of the radiation treatment process and included personnel, equipment, and consumable supplies used to deliver care. Personnel were interviewed to estimate time involved to deliver care. Salary data, equipment purchasing information, and facilities costs were also obtained. We defined the capacity cost rate (CCR) for each resource and then calculated the total cost of patient care according to CCR and time for each resource. Costs were compared with 2016 Medicare reimbursement and relative value units (RVUs). The total cost of radiation therapy for cervical cancer was $12,861.68, with personnel costs constituting 49.8%. Brachytherapy cost $8610.68 (66.9% of total) and consumed 423 minutes of attending radiation oncologist time (80.0% of total). External beam radiation therapy cost $4055.01 (31.5% of total). Personnel costs were higher for brachytherapy than for the sum of simulation and external beam radiation therapy delivery ($4798.73 vs $1404.72). A full radiation therapy course provides radiation oncologists 149.77 RVUs with intensity modulated radiation therapy or 135.90 RVUs with 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy, with total reimbursement of $23,321.71 and $16,071.90, respectively. Attending time per RVU is approximately 4-fold higher for brachytherapy (5.68 minutes) than 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (1.63 minutes) or intensity modulated radiation therapy (1.32 minutes). Time-driven activity-based costing was used to calculate the total cost of definitive radiation therapy for cervical cancer, revealing that brachytherapy delivery and personnel resources constituted the majority of costs. However, current reimbursement policy does not reflect the increased attending physician effort and delivery costs of brachytherapy. We

  1. Climate Innovation Centres. A global instrument with local benefits. Policy brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Coninck, H.C.; Rivera Tinoco, R.A.

    2010-09-01

    A climate innovation centre is an institution aimed at enabling development through catalyzing climate technology research, development and market creation. What do technologies need to flourish and to contribute to sustainable economic development? Current research suggests that functioning markets, innovative capacities and the availability of appropriate technology in countries such as Ghana are key. In the climate negotiations, climate technology innovation centres, as well as an international network of them is in the process of agreement, providing opportunities for Ghana. This Policy Brief explains the considerations for a climate innovation centre in Ghana. It goes into the climate negotiations context, the practical choices for Ghana, gives examples of other countries, and outlines the next steps in the ECN Technical Assistance project.

  2. Planning and costing agricultural adaptation to climate change in small-scale maize production system of Malawi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matiya, George; Lunduka, Rodney; Sikwese, Margaret

    2011-09-15

    Malawi has recently experienced an increased incidence of climate change-related hazards. More droughts and floods have occurred in the last decade (2000 - 2010) than in the past three decades before (1970 - 2000). Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors and consequently has suffered from the negative impacts of climate change. As a result, communities, NGOs and the government of Malawi are adapting (adjusting to continue deriving benefits) to the changing conditions in order for Malawian farmers and their families to survive, since their livelihoods are dependent on agriculture. This adaptation is inevitable and will add a cost to the national economy and households. To successfully calculate this there is a need for proper planning and costing of adaptation strategies at household, community and national level. Currently, the exact costs of adaptation are not yet known; hence, this study was undertaken to investigate what adaptation measures are currently available in the maize subsector in Chikhwawa District in the Lower Shire Valley of Malawi and how much it will cost at household, community and national level to continue to carry out such activities. The calculation is based on climate projections that are likely to happen in Chikhwawa in the next 50 years. The study revealed that communities are already coping with climate change through a number of strategies including: use of early and drought-resistant varieties, irrigation systems, selling of assets, winter cropping and diversification. Regarding climate projections, it is expected that the temperatures in Chikhwawa will increase by 3 deg C by 2065, which will translate into having more days in a month with a mean temperature of above 32 deg C. It is also expected that drier conditions will prevail in the future (2046 - 2065). In terms of costs, Chikhwawa will require about US$55,034,932 (over five years) in the maize subsector to adapt to climate change. The results of the study suggest that

  3. Water quality management and climate change mitigation: cost-effectiveness of joint implementation in the Baltic Sea region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nainggolan, Doan; Hasler, Berit; Andersen, Hans Estrup

    2018-01-01

    of contrasting strategies: single environmental objective management versus joint implementation strategy. The results show that implementing land-based measures with a sole focus on water quality (to meet the HELCOM's 2013 Baltic Sea Action Plan nutrient abatement targets) can produce climate change mitigation......This paper explores the scope for simultaneously managing nutrient abatement and climate change mitigation in the Baltic Sea (BS) region through the implementation of a selection of measures. The analysis is undertaken using a cost-minimisation model for the entire BS region, the BALTCOST model....... In the present research, the model has been extended to include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effects, enabling us to analyse the tradeoffs between cost-effective GHG and nutrient load reductions. We run the model for four different scenarios in order to compare the environmental and economic consequences...

  4. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  5. Global Analysis of Changes in Water Supply Yields and Costs under Climate Change. A Case Study in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirshen, P. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and WaterSHED Center, Tufts University, Medford, Massachussetts, 02155 (United States); McCluskey, M. [CDM, Inc., Denver, Colorado (United States); Vogel, R. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and WaterSHED Center, Tufts University, Medford, Massachussetts, 02155 (United States); Strzepek, K. [Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, and Environment and Behavior Program, Institute for Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, 80309 (United States)

    2005-02-01

    Using China as a case study, a methodology is presented to estimate the changes in yields and costs of present and future water production systems under climate change scenarios. Yield is important to consider because it measures the actual supply available from a river basin. Costs are incurred in enhancing the natural yield of river basins by the construction and operation of reservoirs and ground water pumping systems. The interaction of ground and surface waters within a river basin and instream flow maintenance are also modeled. The water demands considered are domestic, irrigation, and instream flow needs. We found that under climate change the maximum yields of some basins in China may increase or decrease, depending upon location, and that in some basins it may cost significantly more or it may not be possible to meet the demands. While our results for China could be improved with more hydrologic and economic data, we believe that the cost curves developed have suitable accuracy for initial analysis of water supply costs in Integrated Assessment Models.

  6. Atmospheric circulation influence on climatic trends in Europe: an analysis of circulation type classifications from the COST733 catalogue

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cahynová, Monika; Huth, R.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2743-2760 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * circulation type * climatic trends * Europe * COST733 Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4003/abstract

  7. Atmospheric circulation influence on climatic trends in Europe: an analysis of circulation type classifications from the COST733 catalogue

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cahynová, Monika; Huth, Radan

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2743-2760 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265; GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P811 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * circulation type * climatic trends * Europe * COST733 Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4003/abstract

  8. Impact of Real-world Factors Influencing Investment Decisions on the Costs and Distribution of Climate Change Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, J.; Iyer, G.; McJeon, H. C.; Leon, C.; Hultman, N.

    2015-12-01

    Strategies to mitigate dangerous anthropogenic climate change require a dramatic transformation of the energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that in turn requires large-scale investments. Investment decisions depend not only on investment capital availability but also on investment risks. A number of factors such as national policy environments, quality of public and private institutions, sector, firm and technology specific characteristics can affect investors' assessments of risks, leading to a wide variation in the business climate for investment. Such heterogeneity in investment risks can have important implications, as investors usually respond to risks by requiring higher returns for riskier projects; delaying or forgoing the investments; or preferring to invest in existing, familiar projects. We study the impact of variation in investment risks on regional patterns of emissions mitigation, the cost of emissions mitigation and patterns of technology deployment. We modify an integrated assessment model, widely used in global climate policy analyses (the Global Change Assessment Model) and incorporate decisions on investments based on risks along two dimensions. Along the first dimension, we vary perceived risks associated with particular technologies. To do so, we assign a higher cost of capital for investment in low-carbon technologies as these involve intrinsically higher levels of regulatory and market risk. The second dimension uses a proxy to vary investment risks across regions, based on an institutional quality metric published by the World Economic Forum. Explicit representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, it raises the cost of emissions mitigation relative to a world with uniform investment risks. Second, it shifts the pattern of emissions mitigation, with industrialized countries mitigating more, and developing countries mitigating less. Our results suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment

  9. How the Alliance for Climate Education engages national and local partners to achieve collective impact in climate literacy and action (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lappe, M.; Gonzalez, R.; Shanley Hope, S.

    2013-12-01

    The Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) has a mission to educate and inspire young people to break through the challenge of climate change. ACE believes that achieving a safe and stable climate in our lifetime requires the ideas, action and influence of young people. Since 2009, ACE has reached almost 2 million teens in 2,200 schools in over 20 states across the US. In order to support these young people to become leaders in their schools and communities, ACE works closely with local and national partners. In this presentation, ACE will discuss strategic partnerships that have yielded measurable impact and explore how nonprofits, universities, school districts, private companies and government agencies can more effectively align efforts to achieve shared goals. Examples of successful partnerships discussed will include PG&E, Chicago Public Schools, Monterey Bay Aquarium, DC Public Schools, the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network, NOAA, The Next Generation, Los Angeles Public Schools and research universities. ACE will also discuss how research in the field of transformational leadership informs our partnership strategy.

  10. Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

    2016-12-01

    Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

  11. Method for Cost-Benefit Analysis of Improved Indoor Climate Conditions and Reduced Energy Consumption in Office Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktoras Dorosevas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Indoor climate affects health and productivity of the occupants in office buildings, yet in many buildings of this type indoor climate conditions are not well-controlled due to insufficient heating or cooling capacity, high swings of external or internal heat loads, improper control or operation of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC equipment, etc. However, maintenance of good indoor environmental conditions in buildings requires increased investments and possible higher energy consumption. This paper focuses on the relation between investment costs for retrofitting HVAC equipment as well as decreased energy use and improved performance of occupants in office buildings. The cost-benefit analysis implementation algorithm is presented in this paper, including energy survey of the building, estimation of occupants dissatisfied by key indoor climate indicators using questionnaire survey and measurements. Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS analysis is used in the proposed method for data processing. A case study of an office building is presented in order to introduce an application example of the proposed method. Results of the study verify the applicability of the proposed algorithm and TOPSIS analysis as a practical tool for office building surveys in order to maximize productivity by means of cost efficient technical building retrofitting solutions.

  12. TOWARDS CONSISTENT MAPPING OF URBAN STRUCTURES – GLOBAL HUMAN SETTLEMENT LAYER AND LOCAL CLIMATE ZONES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bechtel

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Although more than half of the Earth’s population live in urban areas, we know remarkably little about most cities and what we do know is incomplete (lack of coverage and inconsistent (varying definitions and scale. While there have been considerable advances in the derivation of a global urban mask using satellite information, the complexity of urban structures, the heterogeneity of materials, and the multiplicity of spectral properties have impeded the derivation of universal urban structural types (UST. Further, the variety of UST typologies severely limits the comparability of such studies and although a common and generic description of urban structures is an essential requirement for the universal mapping of urban structures, such a standard scheme is still lacking. More recently, there have been two developments in urban mapping that have the potential for providing a standard approach: the Local Climate Zone (LCZ scheme (used by the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools project and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL methodology by JRC. In this paper the LCZ scheme and the GHSL LABEL product were compared for selected cities. The comparison between both datasets revealed a good agreement at city and coarse scale, while the contingency at pixel scale was limited due to the mismatch in grid resolution and typology. At a 1 km scale, built-up as well as open and compact classes showed very good agreement in terms of correlation coefficient and mean absolute distance, spatial pattern, and radial distribution as a function of distance from town, which indicates that a decomposition relevant for modelling applications could be derived from both. On the other hand, specific problems were found for both datasets, which are discussed along with their general advantages and disadvantages as a standard for UST classification in urban remote sensing.

  13. Smart Control of Air Climatization System in Function on the Values of Mean Local Radiant Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Cannistraro

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The hygrothermal comfort indoor conditions are defined as: those environmental conditions in which an individual exposed, expresses a state of satisfaction. These conditions cannot always be achieved anywhere in an optimal way and economically; in some cases they can be obtained only in work environments specific areas. This could be explained because of air conditioning systems designing is generally performed both on the basis of the fundamental parameters’ average values, such as temperature, velocity and relative humidity (Ta, va e φa and derived parameters such as operating temperature and mean radiant one (Top eTmr. However, in some specific cases - large open-spaces or in case of radiating surfaces - the descriptors defining indoor comfort conditions, based on average values, do not provide the optimum values required during the air conditioning systems design phase. This is largely due to the variability of real environmental parameters values compared to the average ones taken as input in the calculation. The results obtained in previous scientific papers on the thermal comfort have been the driving element of this work. It offers a simple, original and clever way of thinking about the new domotic systems for air conditioning, based on the “local mean radiant temperature.” This is a very important parameter when one wants to analyze comfort in environments characterized by the presence of radiating surfaces, as will be seen hereinafter. In order to take into account the effects of radiative exchanges in the open-space workplace, where any occupant may find themselves in different temperature and humidity conditions, this paper proposes an action on the domotic climate control, with ducts and vents air distribution placed in different zones. Comparisons were performed between the parameters values representing the punctual thermal comfort, with the Predicted Mean Vote PMV, in an environment marked by radiating surfaces (i

  14. Benefits and costs of coping with water and climate change: Berg ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    25 avr. 2016 ... ... undertook to estimate the potential effects of different climate change scenarios in water supply and demand, using an integrated modelling approach -- one that combines climate change scenarios, a hydrological model, and an economic model to analyze and suggest efficient ways of sharing water.

  15. Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Costs for the U.S. Road Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. road network is one of the nation’s most important capital assets and is vital to the functioning of the U.S. economy. Climate change may represent a risk or an opportunity to this network, as changes in climate stress will affect the resources necessary for both road m...

  16. Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Human Health in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Pandey, Kiran

    2010-01-01

    This paper is one component of a global study on the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) in developing countries; the focus in this paper is human health. The main human health impacts of climate change are increased incidence of vector-borne disease (malaria), water-borne disease (diarrhea), cardio respiratory diseases, heat- and cold-related deaths, injuries and deaths from ...

  17. Costs for Alternatives to District Heating. A study of real costs on local heating markets; Alternativkostnad till fjaerrvaerme. En studie av verkliga kostnader paa lokala vaermemarknader

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlson, Annelie; Lehtmets, Marti; Andersson, Sofie

    2008-07-01

    Heating comprise the major part of the cost of supporting a building with necessities like electricity, heat, refuse collection and water and sewage. As these costs increase, it is becoming more interesting to find other solutions in order to reduce them. One alternative is to convert to another heating system. Several price analyses comparing different heating systems have been performed. Avgiftsgruppen publishes one report on a yearly basis, where the costs to support a building with necessities and how they vary between communities are listed. The latest report states that it is less expensive in 75 % of the communities in Sweden to convert from district heating to a pellets boiler or a ground-source pump. However, other studies have established that the heat market is a local market with local conditions. Therefore you need to compare alternative heating costs that are specific to the area instead of estimated average costs at a national level. The purpose of this survey is to study a local heat market in order to verify the real cost of the alternative heating systems to district heating and if these costs vary between different communities. The hypothesis is that it is not possible to generalize the heating cost on a national level. Instead, a local market should be studied to make an accurate cost comparison between heating options. Three communities are studied in order to find real and verified investment costs in pellet boilers and heat pumps. The investments that are of primary interest are those performed in buildings similar to the multi-dwelling house used in earlier price analyses. Furthermore, the building should be located within the distribution network of district heating in order to illustrate the competition between the heating alternatives. The result of the study illustrates the difficulties to find real and verified costs of completed investments in alternative heating systems in buildings that is of primary interest for this study. Contacts

  18. Acting locally, developing knowledge globally: a transitions perspective on designing climate change adaptation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grin, J.; Driessen, J.; Leroy, P.; van Vierssen, W.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change, from many perspectives and for many reasons, is a complex issue: scientifically, politically, and in terms of global justice. As such, climate change might be the global societal and political challenge of the 21st century. Dealing with it, either via mitigation or via adaptation,

  19. Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

    2015-12-01

    While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system.

  20. Is climate change a threat for water uses in the Mediterranean region? Results from a survey at local scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Jeunesse, I; Cirelli, C; Aubin, D; Larrue, C; Sellami, H; Afifi, S; Bellin, A; Benabdallah, S; Bird, D N; Deidda, R; Dettori, M; Engin, G; Herrmann, F; Ludwig, R; Mabrouk, B; Majone, B; Paniconi, C; Soddu, A

    2016-02-01

    Water scarcity and water security are linked, not only through the direct effects of water shortages on each water users' access to water, but also because of water conflicts generated. Climate change is predicted to raise temperatures in the Mediterranean region and reduce rainfall, leading to a reduction in water yield and possibly worsening the situation of water resource shortages that Mediterranean regions are already experiencing. In its dissemination strategy, the EU FP7 CLIMB project addressed water security threats through an analysis of water uses and water use rivalries within a few target catchments distributed over the Mediterranean region. The present work explores whether climate change is locally perceived by stakeholders (water users and managers) as a key issue for their water uses and water security. Individual interviews, meetings, and compilation of questionnaires were conducted at five sites located in the Mediterranean region. The methodology permitted an analysis of water use and its evolution in the water management context, an identification of the state of awareness of local stakeholders and of the pressures on water use and water use rivalries, and a prioritization of water uses. Currently, the main response to increasing water demand in the Mediterranean region, while not yet considering climate change as a driving force, is a progressive externalization of water resources, with limits represented by national borders and technological possibilities. Overall, 'climate change' was not mentioned by stakeholders during both interviews and in answers to the questionnaires. Even the prospect of decreasing precipitation was not considered a relevant or threatening issue in the coming 20years. This confirms the need to continue all efforts to disseminate the state of knowledge on climate change impacts in the Mediterranean region, such as water scarcity, especially to local water managers, as initiated by various research programs of the

  1. Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

    2017-04-01

    In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would

  2. Sharing the cost of river basin adaptation portfolios to climate change: Insights from social justice and cooperative game theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2016-10-01

    The adaptation of water resource systems to the potential impacts of climate change requires mixed portfolios of supply and demand adaptation measures. The issue is not only to select efficient, robust, and flexible adaptation portfolios but also to find equitable strategies of cost allocation among the stakeholders. Our work addresses such cost allocation problems by applying two different theoretical approaches: social justice and cooperative game theory in a real case study. First of all, a cost-effective portfolio of adaptation measures at the basin scale is selected using a least-cost optimization model. Cost allocation solutions are then defined based on economic rationality concepts from cooperative game theory (the Core). Second, interviews are conducted to characterize stakeholders' perceptions of social justice principles associated with the definition of alternatives cost allocation rules. The comparison of the cost allocation scenarios leads to contrasted insights in order to inform the decision-making process at the river basin scale and potentially reap the efficiency gains from cooperation in the design of river basin adaptation portfolios.

  3. Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

  4. Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry

    2018-05-01

    Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.

  5. Relative roles of local disturbance, current climate and palaeoclimate in determining phylogenetic and functional diversity in Chinese forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Gang; Mi, Xiangcheng; Bøcher, Peder Klith

    2014-01-01

    their relative roles in determining woody plant phylogenetic and functional diversity in this important hotspot for woody plant diversity. Local disturbance was the best predictor of functional diversity as represented by maximum canopy height (Hmax), probably reflecting the dominant role of competition...... studied, their relative importance for other aspects of diversity, notably phylogenetic and functional diversity is so far little studied. Here, we link data from large Chinese forest plots to data on current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate as well as local disturbance regimes to study...

  6. Guide to protect climate. Saving energy and cost, protecting climate; Der Klima-Knigge. Energie sparen, Kosten senken, Klima schuetzen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griesshammer, Rainer

    2008-07-01

    As a climate protector you mustn't seat in the darkness. The author shows by much humour and esprit how simple it is to save energy. Who is willing to persue his every day tips, must not miss comfort and lowers even carbon dioxide emission. This is good for the environment and fills up the own purse. (orig./GL) [German] Als Klimaschuetzer braucht man nicht im Dunkeln zu sitzen. Mit viel Humor und Esprit zeigt Griesshammer, wie einfach Energie sparen sein kann. Wer seine Alltagstipps befolgt, muss auf keinen Komfort verzichten und mindert trotzdem den CO2-Ausstoss. Das nutzt der Umwelt und fuellt den eigenen Geldbeutel auf. (orig./GL)

  7. American policy conflict in the greenhouse: Divergent trends in federal, regional, state, and local green energy and climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrne, John; Hughes, Kristen; Rickerson, Wilson; Kurdgelashvili, Lado

    2007-01-01

    Climate change threatens significant impacts on global ecosystems and human populations. To address this challenge, industrialized nations have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and undertaken commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, the primary agents linked to anthropogenic alteration of earth's climate. By contrast, the US government, led by the Bush Administration, has rejected mandatory targets for curbing emissions under the Protocol, and has instead pursued voluntary mitigation measures amid a larger push for clean coal and 'next generation' nuclear technologies. These actions in total have fueled global perceptions that the US is not acting in substantial ways to address climate change. Nevertheless, action within the US is indeed moving forward, with states, cities and regional partnerships filling the federal leadership vacuum. This paper reviews the diverse policies, strategies, and cooperative frameworks that have emerged at regional, state and local levels to guide climate protection, and identifies the environmental and economic benefits linked to such programs. The paper also attempts to explain the existing federal impasse on climate policy, with attention given to how sub-national efforts may ultimately obviate national governmental inaction

  8. Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

    2014-05-01

    Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify

  9. Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurney, Georgina G; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Geronimo, Rollan C; Aliño, Perry M; Johnson, Craig R

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef

  10. Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina G Gurney

    Full Text Available Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general

  11. Modelling Coral Reef Futures to Inform Management: Can Reducing Local-Scale Stressors Conserve Reefs under Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurney, Georgina G.; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Geronimo, Rollan C.; Aliño, Perry M.; Johnson, Craig R.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef

  12. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  13. Cost, energy, global warming, eutrophication and local human health impacts of community water and sanitation service options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoen, Mary E; Xue, Xiaobo; Wood, Alison; Hawkins, Troy R; Garland, Jay; Ashbolt, Nicholas J

    2017-02-01

    We compared water and sanitation system options for a coastal community across selected sustainability metrics, including environmental impact (i.e., life cycle eutrophication potential, energy consumption, and global warming potential), equivalent annual cost, and local human health impact. We computed normalized metric scores, which we used to discuss the options' strengths and weaknesses, and conducted sensitivity analysis of the scores to changes in variable and uncertain input parameters. The alternative systems, which combined centralized drinking water with sanitation services based on the concepts of energy and nutrient recovery as well as on-site water reuse, had reduced environmental and local human health impacts and costs than the conventional, centralized option. Of the selected sustainability metrics, the greatest advantages of the alternative community water systems (compared to the conventional system) were in terms of local human health impact and eutrophication potential, despite large, outstanding uncertainties. Of the alternative options, the systems with on-site water reuse and energy recovery technologies had the least local human health impact; however, the cost of these options was highly variable and the energy consumption was comparable to on-site alternatives without water reuse or energy recovery, due to on-site reuse treatment. Future work should aim to reduce the uncertainty in the energy recovery process and explore the health risks associated with less costly, on-site water treatment options. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Harnessing cyber-infrastructure for local scale climate change research in Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Vahed, A

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses a major threat to environmental sustainability. Africa in particular, is vulnerable with projected worsening food security, increased threats to public health, increased stress on surface water resources and a general increase...

  15. Local perceptions of climate change impacts and migration patterns in Male, Maldives

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stojanov, R.; Duží, Barbora; Kelman, I.; Němec, D.; Procházka, D.

    -, 18. April 2016 (2016) ISSN 1475-4959 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : Maldives * climate change impacts * migration Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geoj.12177/full

  16. Towards a Local-Scale Climate Service for Colombian Agriculture: Findings and Future Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Prager, S.; Llanos, L.; Agudelo, D.; Esquivel, A.; Sotelo, S.; Guevara, E.; Howland, F. C.; Munoz, A.; Rodriguez, J.; Ordonez, L.; Fernandes, K.

    2017-12-01

    Globally, interannual climate variability explains roughly a third of the yield variation for major crops. In Colombia, interannual climate variations and specially those driven by ENSO can disrupt production, lower farmers' incomes and increase market prices for both urban and rural consumers alike. Farmers in Colombia, however, often plan for the cropping season based on the immediately prior year's experience, which is unlikely to result in successful crops under high climate variability events. Critical decisions for avoiding total investment loss or to ensure successful harvests, including issues related to planting date, what variety to plant, or whether to plant, are made, at best, intuitively. Here, we demonstrate that the combination of better data, skillful seasonal climate forecasts, calibrated crop models, and a web-based climate services platform tailored to users' needs can prove successful in establishing a sustained climate service for agriculture. Rainfall predictability analyses indicate that statistical seasonal climate forecasts are skillful enough for issuing forecasts reliably in virtually all areas, with dry periods generally showing greater predictability than wet periods. Importantly, we find that a better specification of predictor regions significantly enhances seasonal forecast skill. Rice and maize crop models capture well the growth and development of rice and maize crops in experimental settings, and ably simulate historical (1980-2014) variations in productivity. With skillful climate and crop models, we developed a climate services platform that produces seasonal climate forecasts, and connects these with crop models. A usability study of the forecast platform revealed that, from a population of ca. 200 farmers and professionals, roughly two thirds correctly interpreted information and felt both confident and encouraged to use the platform. Nevertheless, capacity strengthening on key agro-climatology concepts was highlighted by

  17. Storytelling and Technology Combine to Create Student Engagement Around Locally Relevant Climate Change Topics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckey, E.; Littrell-Baez, M.; Tayne, K.; Gold, A. U.; Okochi, C.; Oonk, D.; Smith, L. K.; Lynds, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    Storytelling is a powerful way for students to engage with science topics, particularly topics that may initially seem too broad to impact their lives, like climate change. Empowering students to telling a personal story about climate change's effects and helping them turn their story into a film is powerful approach. Especially because these films can be shared globally and gives students a voice around a complex topic like climate change. Here, we present impacts of the Lens on Climate Change program (LOCC), which engages middle and high school students in producing short films featuring how climate change impacts their communities. LOCC is offered as an intensive week-long summer program and as an extracurricular program during the school year. The majority of student participants are recruited from historically underserved communities and come from ethnical and socioeconomically diverse backgrounds. Survey data revealed that LOCC participants had a significant increase in their belief in the reality of climate change after participation in their program relative to students in a demographically-matched control groups. Furthermore, participant responses on reflection surveys given after the program included statements that suggest that students had begun thinking more deeply about climate change as a serious global challenge and felt empowered to take actions to mitigate climate change and/or spread awareness in their communities. The majority of students in the LOCC program also reported being very proud of their film and intended to share their film with their friends and family. Additionally, we explored the long-term impacts of participation by interviewing students a year after the program and offered them the opportunity to make a subsequent film. Students in this "advanced group" reported being more aware of climate change in their community following making their films and were enthusiastic to increase their filmmaking skills through producing additional

  18. Climate Change and Apple Farming in Indian Himalayas: A Study of Local Perceptions and Responses

    OpenAIRE

    Basannagari, Basavaraj; Kala, Chandra Prakash

    2013-01-01

    Apple farming is an important activity and profession of farmer communities in the Himalayan states of India. At present, the traditional apple farming is under stress due to changes in climate. The present study was undertaken in an Indian Himalayan state, Himachal Pradesh, with the major aim of studying perceptions of farmers on the effects of climate change on apple farming along the altitudinal gradient. Through questionnaire survey, the perceptions of farmers were recorded at low hills (...

  19. Incorporating Air Quality Improvement at a Local Level into Climate Policy in the Transport Sector: A Case Study in Bandung City, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helmi Gunawan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate policy has a strong influence on policy processes at national levels in Indonesia, while other policies with a focus on air quality improvement are being implemented at local levels. Indonesia as a developing country has committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG emissions by 29 percent by the year 2030. This calls into question the extent to which cities and local governments can cope with the challenges of climate change mitigation. The purpose of the research is to find out the extent to which local air pollution reduction policies can contribute to the climate change mitigation program. The research design involved an empirical case study on governance and policy relevant to climate change efforts to lower GHG in Bandung City, Indonesia. The study evaluated the air quality improvement and the climate change mitigation programs using the actor-based framework of the Contextual Interaction Theory (CIT. The governance and stakeholder characteristic of climate change mitigation were also analysed using the structural context part of the CIT framework. The result shows that air quality improvement policy is implemented separately from climate policy; the latter operates at the national level and the former at the local level. By looking at the actor interaction analysis, the study concludes that a more holistic environmental policy approach would be more efficient at reducing local air pollution and contributing to the mitigation of climate change.

  20. Bioenergy expansion in the EU: Cost-effective climate change mitigation, employment creation and reduced dependency on imported fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berndes, Goeran; Hansson, Julia

    2007-01-01

    Presently, the European Union (EU) is promoting bioenergy. The aim of this paper is to study the prospects for using domestic biomass resources in Europe and specifically to investigate whether different policy objectives underlying the promotion of bioenergy (cost-effective climate change mitigation, employment creation and reduced dependency on imported fuels) agree on which bioenergy options that should be used. We model bioenergy use from a cost-effectiveness perspective with a linear regionalized energy- and transport-system model and perform supplementary analysis. It is found that the different policy objectives do not agree on the order of priority among bioenergy options. Maximizing climate benefits cost-effectively is in conflict with maximizing employment creation. The former perspective proposes the use of lignocellulosic biomass in the stationary sector, while the latter requires biofuels for transport based on traditional agricultural crops. Further, from a security-of-supply perspective, the appeal of a given bioenergy option depends on how oil and gas import dependencies are weighed relative to each other. Consequently, there are tradeoffs that need to be addressed by policymakers promoting the use of bioenergy. Also, the importance of bioenergy in relation to employment creation and fuel import dependency reduction needs to be further addressed

  1. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Ni, J, E-mail: nan.lu@utoledo.ed, E-mail: burkhard.wilske@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jni@ibcas.ac.c, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jiquan.chen@utoledo.ed [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  2. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J; Ni, J

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  3. The relative role of dispersal and local interactions for alpine plant community diversity under simulated climate warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klanderud, K.; Totland, Oe. [Norwegian Univ. of Life Science, Dept. of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Aas (Norway)

    2007-08-15

    Most studies on factors determining diversity are conducted in temperate or warm regions, whereas studies in climatically harsh and low productivity areas, such as alpine regions, are rare. We examined the relative roles of seed availability and different biotic and abiotic factors for the diversity of an alpine plant community in southern Norway. Furthermore, because climate warming is predicted to be an important driver of alpine species diversity, we assessed how the relative impacts of dispersal and local interactions on diversity might change under experimental warming (open top chambers, OTCs). Addition of seeds from 27 regional species increased community diversity. The establishment of the species was negatively related both to the diversity of the existing system and the cover of the abundant dwarf shrub Dryas octopetala. These results show that both species dispersal limitation and local biotic interactions are important factors for alpine plant community diversity. Despite relatively harsh environmental conditions and low productivity, competition from the resident vegetation appeared to have a greater role for species establishment and diversity than facilitation and experimental warming. Higher temperature appeared to increase the negative relationship between resident species diversity and species establishment. This may suggest that climate warming can increase the role of interspecific competition for alpine plant community structure, and thus alter the long-term effects of biotic interactions on diversity. (au)

  4. Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 2. Dynamic Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2002-01-01

    Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts are expressed as functions of climate change and 'vulnerability'. Vulnerability is measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, population above 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine world regions, for the period 2000-2200, for agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector-borne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. Uncertainties are large, often including sign switches. In the short term, the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be the crucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of the sector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts can be negative or positive, depending on the time, region, and sector one is looking at. Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorer regions

  5. Climatic change impacts, adaptation and associated costs in France. Intermediate report. June 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This report aims at promoting the awareness of sector-based and land challenges of climate change in terms of impacts. It gives a wide overview of the present knowledge on sector-based vulnerabilities, and allows the identification of some paths for the alleviation of these vulnerabilities. After a discussion of objectives and context, of methodological choices (data, modalities to take impacts and adaptation into account, impact assessment approach) thematic woks are reported. They are dealing with health (population vulnerability to climate change with the example of 2006 heat wave), agriculture, forest and water, energy, tourism, natural risks and insurance, territories. For each of these topics, the reports discusses vulnerability aspects, the present knowledge about the impact of climate change, and identifies the core problems as well as studies which remain to be performed

  6. Nuclear power unnecessary for climate protection. There are more cost-efficient alternatives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kemfert, Claudia; Oei, Pao-Yu [DIW Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Energy, Transportation, Environment; Burandt, Thorsten; Hainsch, Karlo [TU Berlin (Germany); Loeffler, Konstantin [TU Berlin (Germany); DIW Berlin (Germany); Hirschhausen, Christian von [DIW Berlin (Germany). International Infrastructure Policy and Industrial Organization

    2017-07-01

    The world needs to continue working to protect the climate - this is generally undisputed. However, there is no agreement on which technologies should be used to decarbonize the energy sector. Many international scenarios still assume a relevant role for nuclear power in the future. However, a study by the German Institute for Economic Research shows that the Paris climate protection target - limiting global warming to below two degrees - can be achieved inexpensively without nuclear power. The results of a global energy system model indicate that no new nuclear power plants have to be built in order to meet the global climate target. It would be cheaper to use a combination of renewable energy and energy storage systems.

  7. Benefits and costs of improved cookstoves: assessing the implications of variability in health, forest and climate impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A Jeuland

    Full Text Available Current attention to improved cook stoves (ICS focuses on the "triple benefits" they provide, in improved health and time savings for households, in preservation of forests and associated ecosystem services, and in reducing emissions that contribute to global climate change. Despite the purported economic benefits of such technologies, however, progress in achieving large-scale adoption and use has been remarkably slow. This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation analysis to evaluate the claim that households will always reap positive and large benefits from the use of such technologies. Our analysis allows for better understanding of the variability in economic costs and benefits of ICS use in developing countries, which depend on unknown combinations of numerous uncertain parameters. The model results suggest that the private net benefits of ICS will sometimes be negative, and in many instances highly so. Moreover, carbon financing and social subsidies may help enhance incentives to adopt, but will not always be appropriate. The costs and benefits of these technologies are most affected by their relative fuel costs, time and fuel use efficiencies, the incidence and cost-of-illness of acute respiratory illness, and the cost of household cooking time. Combining these results with the fact that households often find these technologies to be inconvenient or culturally inappropriate leads us to understand why uptake has been disappointing. Given the current attention to the scale up of ICS, this analysis is timely and important for highlighting some of the challenges for global efforts to promote ICS.

  8. Water impacts and water-climate goal conflicts of local energy choices - notes from a Swedish perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ericsdotter Engström, Rebecka; Howells, Mark; Destouni, Georgia

    2018-02-01

    To meet both the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), nations, sectors, counties and cities need to move towards a sustainable energy system in the next couple of decades. Such energy system transformations will impact water resources to varying extents, depending on the transformation strategy and fuel choices. Sweden is considered to be one of the most advanced countries towards meeting the SDGs. This paper explores the geographical origin of and the current water use associated with the supply of energy in the 21 regional counties of Sweden. These energy-related uses of water represent indirect, but still relevant, impacts for water management and the related SDG on clean water and sanitation (SDG 6). These indirect water impacts are here quantified and compared to reported quantifications of direct local water use, as well as to reported greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as one example of other types of environmental impacts of local energy choices in each county. For each county, an accounting model is set up based on data for the local energy use in year 2010, and the specific geographical origins and water use associated with these locally used energy carriers (fuels, heat and electricity) are further estimated and mapped based on data reported in the literature and open databases. Results show that most of the water use associated with the local Swedish energy use occurs outside of Sweden. Counties with large shares of liquid biofuel exhibit the largest associated indirect water use in regions outside of Sweden. This indirect water use for energy supply does not unambiguously correlate with either the local direct water use or the local GHG emissions, although for the latter, there is a tendency towards an inverse relation. Overall, the results imply that actions for mitigation of climate change by local energy choices may significantly affect water resources elsewhere. Swedish counties are thus important examples

  9. Water impacts and water-climate goal conflicts of local energy choices – notes from a Swedish perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Engström

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available To meet both the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs, nations, sectors, counties and cities need to move towards a sustainable energy system in the next couple of decades. Such energy system transformations will impact water resources to varying extents, depending on the transformation strategy and fuel choices. Sweden is considered to be one of the most advanced countries towards meeting the SDGs. This paper explores the geographical origin of and the current water use associated with the supply of energy in the 21 regional counties of Sweden. These energy-related uses of water represent indirect, but still relevant, impacts for water management and the related SDG on clean water and sanitation (SDG 6. These indirect water impacts are here quantified and compared to reported quantifications of direct local water use, as well as to reported greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, as one example of other types of environmental impacts of local energy choices in each county. For each county, an accounting model is set up based on data for the local energy use in year 2010, and the specific geographical origins and water use associated with these locally used energy carriers (fuels, heat and electricity are further estimated and mapped based on data reported in the literature and open databases. Results show that most of the water use associated with the local Swedish energy use occurs outside of Sweden. Counties with large shares of liquid biofuel exhibit the largest associated indirect water use in regions outside of Sweden. This indirect water use for energy supply does not unambiguously correlate with either the local direct water use or the local GHG emissions, although for the latter, there is a tendency towards an inverse relation. Overall, the results imply that actions for mitigation of climate change by local energy choices may significantly affect water resources elsewhere. Swedish counties are thus

  10. 2 CFR Appendix E to Part 225 - State and Local Indirect Cost Rate Proposals

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... organizational structure of the agency during the period for which the proposal applies, along with a functional... grantee department or agency, depreciation or use allowances on buildings and equipment, the costs of... period, usually the governmental unit's fiscal year. This rate is based on an estimate of the costs to be...

  11. U.S. Department of Education Indirect Cost Determination Guidance for State and Local Government Agencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Department of Education, Washington, DC. Office of the Chief Financial and Chief Information Officer.

    This guide provides new direction in financial management and oversight practices for accounting and charging administrative costs as they relate to programs administered by the U.S. Department of Education. The document is divided into six sections. Section 1, which presents general information, offers details on definitions; indirect-cost rates;…

  12. Heat savings and heat generation technologies: Modelling of residential investment behaviour with local health costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zvingilaite, Erika; Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    The trade-off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in Denmark. For each group the private economic cost of providing hea...... for private consumers decrease by 66% when all have the option to shift to the technology with lowest variable costs. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All Rights reserved......The trade-off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in Denmark. For each group the private economic cost of providing...

  13. A neural network approach to local downscaling of GCM output for assessing wind power implications of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sailor, D.J.; Hu, T.; Li, X.; Rosen, J.N.

    2000-01-01

    A methodology is presented for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) output to predict surface wind speeds at scales of interest in the wind power industry under expected future climatic conditions. The approach involves a combination of Neural Network tools and traditional weather forecasting techniques. A Neural Network transfer function is developed to relate local wind speed observations to large scale GCM predictions of atmospheric properties under current climatic conditions. By assuming the invariability of this transfer function under conditions of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, the resulting transfer function is then applied to GCM output for a transient run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. This methodology is applied to three test sites in regions relevant to the wind power industry - one in Texas and two in California. Changes in daily mean wind speeds at each location are presented and discussed with respect to potential implications for wind power generation. (author)

  14. Predicting the impacts of climate change on animal distributions: the importance of local adaptation and species' traits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HELLMANN, J. J.; LOBO, N. F.

    2011-12-20

    The geographic range limits of many species are strongly affected by climate and are expected to change under global warming. For species that are able to track changing climate over broad geographic areas, we expect to see shifts in species distributions toward the poles and away from the equator. A number of ecological and evolutionary factors, however, could restrict this shifting or redistribution under climate change. These factors include restricted habitat availability, restricted capacity for or barriers to movement, or reduced abundance of colonists due the perturbation effect of climate change. This research project examined the last of these constraints - that climate change could perturb local conditions to which populations are adapted, reducing the likelihood that a species will shift its distribution by diminishing the number of potential colonists. In the most extreme cases, species ranges could collapse over a broad geographic area with no poleward migration and an increased risk of species extinction. Changes in individual species ranges are the processes that drive larger phenomena such as changes in land cover, ecosystem type, and even changes in carbon cycling. For example, consider the poleward range shift and population outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle that has decimated millions of acres of Douglas fir trees in the western US and Canada. Standing dead trees cause forest fires and release vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. The beetle likely shifted its range because it is not locally adapted across its range, and it appears to be limited by winter low temperatures that have steadily increased in the last decades. To understand range and abundance changes like the pine beetle, we must reveal the extent of adaptive variation across species ranges - and the physiological basis of that adaptation - to know if other species will change as readily as the pine beetle. Ecologists tend to assume that range shifts are the dominant

  15. Climate Change and Costs: Investigating Students' Reasoning on Nature and Economic Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sternang, Li; Lundholm, Cecilia

    2012-01-01

    The tensions between environmental protection and economic growth are critical to future well-being, and it is therefore important to understand how young people conceptualize these tensions. The aim of the present study is to explore students' solutions to the dilemma of economic development and mitigating climate change, with regard to societal…

  16. Local perceptions of climate change impacts and migration patterns in Malé, Maldives

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stojanov, R.; Duží, Barbora; Kelman, I.; Němec, D.; Procházka, D.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 183, č. 4 (2017), s. 370-385 ISSN 0016-7398 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : Maldives * climate change impacts * migration * risk management * quantitative survey Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: Cultural and economic geography Impact factor: 3.132, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geoj.12177/abstract

  17. California forests show early indications of both range shifts and local persistence under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josep M. Serra-Diaz; Janet Franklin; Whalen W. Dillon; Alexandra D. Syphard; Frank W. Davis; Ross K. Meentemeyer

    2015-01-01

    Aim Forest regeneration data provide an early signal of the persistence and migration of tree species, so we investigated whether species shifts due to climate change exhibit a common signal of response or whether changes vary by species. Location California Floristic Province, United...

  18. Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten A. D.; Christensen, Jens H.; Drews, Martin

    2016-01-01

    simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface...

  19. Interaction between Cities and Climate Change: Modelling Urban Morphology and Local Urban Planning Scenarios from Open Datasets across European Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Bart; Stevens, Catherine; Grommen, Mart

    2015-04-01

    Cities are characterised by a large spatiotemporal diversity of local climates induced by a superposition of various factors and processes interacting at global and regional scales but also at the micro level such as the urban heat island effect. As urban areas are known as 'hot spots' prone to climate and its variability over time leading to changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves, it is of crucial importance to capture the spatial heterogeneity resulting from variations in land use land cover (LULC) and urban morphology in an effective way to drive local urban climate simulations. The first part of the study conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission focusses on the extraction of land surface parameters linked to urban morphology characteristics from detailed 3D city models and their relationship with openly accessible European datasets such as the degree of soil sealing and disaggregated population densities from the European Environment Agency (EEA) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC). While it has been demonstrated that good correlations can be found between those datasets and the planar and frontal area indices, the present work has expanded the research to other urban morphology parameters including the average and variation of the building height and the sky view factor. Correlations up to 80% have been achieved depending on the considered parameter and the specific urban area including the cities of Antwerp (Belgium), Berlin (Germany) and Almada (Portugal) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. Moreover, the transferability of the established relations has been investigated across the various cities. Secondly, a flexible and scalable approach as a function of the required the level of detail has been elaborated to update the various morphology parameters in case of integration with urban planning data to analyse the local impact of future land use scenarios

  20. Climate change and apple farming in Indian Himalayas: a study of local perceptions and responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basavaraj Basannagari

    Full Text Available Apple farming is an important activity and profession of farmer communities in the Himalayan states of India. At present, the traditional apple farming is under stress due to changes in climate. The present study was undertaken in an Indian Himalayan state, Himachal Pradesh, with the major aim of studying perceptions of farmers on the effects of climate change on apple farming along the altitudinal gradient. Through questionnaire survey, the perceptions of farmers were recorded at low hills (3000 m. At all elevation range the majority of farmers reported that there was increase in atmospheric temperature, and hence at low hills 72% farmers believed that this increase in temperature was responsible for decline in fruit size and so that the quality. Thirty five percent farmers at high hills and 30% at mid hills perceived frost as a major cause for damaging apple farming whereas at low hills 24% farmers perceived hailstorm as the major deterrent for apple farming. The majority of farmers, along the altitude (92% at high hills, 79% at mid hills and 83% at low hills, reported decrease in snowfall. The majority of farmers at low altitude and mid altitude reported decline in apple farming whereas 71% farmers at high hill areas refused decline in apple farming. About 73-83% farmers admitted delay in apple's harvesting period. At mid hills apple scab and at low hills pest attack on apple crops are considered as the indicators of climate change. The change in land use practices was attributed to climate change and in many areas the land under apple farming was replaced for production of coarse grains, seasonal vegetables and other horticulture species. Scientific investigation claiming changes in Indian Himalayan climate corroborates perceptions of farmers, as examined during the present study.

  1. Climate change and apple farming in Indian Himalayas: a study of local perceptions and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basannagari, Basavaraj; Kala, Chandra Prakash

    2013-01-01

    Apple farming is an important activity and profession of farmer communities in the Himalayan states of India. At present, the traditional apple farming is under stress due to changes in climate. The present study was undertaken in an Indian Himalayan state, Himachal Pradesh, with the major aim of studying perceptions of farmers on the effects of climate change on apple farming along the altitudinal gradient. Through questionnaire survey, the perceptions of farmers were recorded at low hills (3000 m). At all elevation range the majority of farmers reported that there was increase in atmospheric temperature, and hence at low hills 72% farmers believed that this increase in temperature was responsible for decline in fruit size and so that the quality. Thirty five percent farmers at high hills and 30% at mid hills perceived frost as a major cause for damaging apple farming whereas at low hills 24% farmers perceived hailstorm as the major deterrent for apple farming. The majority of farmers, along the altitude (92% at high hills, 79% at mid hills and 83% at low hills), reported decrease in snowfall. The majority of farmers at low altitude and mid altitude reported decline in apple farming whereas 71% farmers at high hill areas refused decline in apple farming. About 73-83% farmers admitted delay in apple's harvesting period. At mid hills apple scab and at low hills pest attack on apple crops are considered as the indicators of climate change. The change in land use practices was attributed to climate change and in many areas the land under apple farming was replaced for production of coarse grains, seasonal vegetables and other horticulture species. Scientific investigation claiming changes in Indian Himalayan climate corroborates perceptions of farmers, as examined during the present study.

  2. Optimizing operation costs of the heating system of a household using model predictive control considering a local PV installation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch-Ciobotaru, Cosmin; Isleifsson, Fridrik Rafn; Gehrke, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a model predictive controller developed in order to minimize the cost of grid energy consumption and maximize the amount of energy consumed from a local photovoltaic (PV) installation. The usage of as much locally produced renewable energy sources (RES) as possible, diminishes...... the effects of their large penetration in the distribution grid and reduces overloading the grid capacity, which is an increasing problem for the power system. The controller uses 24 hour prediction data for the ambient temperature, the solar irradiance, and for the PV output power. Simulation results...

  3. Lend Global, Fund Local? Price and Funding Cost Margins in Multinational Banking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galema, R.; Koetter, M.; Liesegang, C.

    2016-01-01

    In a proposed model of a multinational bank, interest margins determine local lending by foreign affiliates and the internal funding by parent banks. We exploit detailed parent-affiliate-level data of all German banks to empirically test our theoretical predictions in pre-crisis times. Local lending

  4. Locally-sourced: How climate science can collaborate with arts & humanities museums to achieve widespread public trust and communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, C. G.

    2017-12-01

    Local history, art and culture museums have a large role to play in climate science communication. Unfortunately, in our current society, scientific evidence and logic is not universally accepted as truth. These messages can be dispersed through trusted institutional allies like humanities and arts museums. There are many reasons for scientific institutions to work with humanities and arts museums of all sizes, especially local museums that have personal, trusted relationships with their communities. First, museums (by definition) are public educators; the work that they do is to disperse challenging information in an understandable way to a wide array of audiences. Museums are located in every state, with over 35,000 museums in the nation; 26% of those are located in rural areas. These museums serve every demographic and age range, inspiring even those with difficulty accepting climate change information to act. Second, in a recent public opinion survey commissioned by the American Alliance of Museums, museums - especially history museums - are considered the most trustworthy source of information in America, rated higher than newspapers, nonprofit researchers, the U.S. government, or academic researchers. Scientific institutions must collaborate with local museums to improve science communication going forward. Not only will important climate and sustainability research be dispersed via trusted sources, but the public will engage with this information in large numbers. In 2012 alone, over 850 million people visited museums - more than the attendance for all major league sports and theme parks combined. A recent impact study shows that history and art museums, especially, are not seen as "having a political agenda," with over 78% of the public seeing these museums as trusted institutions. There are many ways in which the scientific community can collaborate with "the arts." This presentation will speak to the larger benefit of working with sister arts & humanities

  5. Impact of highway construction on land surface energy balance and local climate derived from LANDSAT satellite data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nedbal, Václav; Brom, Jakub

    2018-08-15

    Extensive construction of highways has a major impact on the landscape and its structure. They can also influence local climate and heat fluxes in the surrounding area. After the removal of vegetation due to highway construction, the amount of solar radiation energy used for plant evapotranspiration (latent heat flux) decreases, bringing about an increase in landscape surface temperature, changing the local climate and increasing surface run-off. In this study, we evaluated the impact of the D8 highway construction (Central Bohemia, Czech Republic) on the distribution of solar radiation energy into the various heat fluxes (latent, sensible and ground heat flux) and related surface functional parameters (surface temperature and surface wetness). The aim was to describe the severity of the impact and the distance from the actual highway in which it can be observed. LANDSAT multispectral satellite images and field meteorological measurements were used to calculate surface functional parameters and heat balance before and during the highway construction. Construction of a four-lane highway can influence the heat balance of the landscape surface as far as 90m in the perpendicular direction from the highway axis, i.e. up to 75m perpendicular from its edge. During a summer day, the decrease in evapotranspired water can reach up to 43.7m 3 per highway kilometre. This means a reduced cooling effect, expressed as the decrease in latent heat flux, by an average of 29.7MWh per day per highway kilometre and its surroundings. The loss of the cooling ability of the land surface by evaporation can lead to a rise in surface temperature by as much as 7°C. Thus, the results indicate the impact of extensive line constructions on the local climate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. cost and returns analysis of catfish marketing in aba south local

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study analyzed the cost and returns of catfish marketing in Aba South ... significantly influenced net income should be considered in policy issues. ... entrepreneur/manager at a profit. .... marketers were well experienced in their business.

  7. Local climate mitigation and eco-efforts in housing and construction as transition places

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Jesper; Stauning, Inger; Søndergård, Bent

    2011-01-01

    the innovative practices undertaken in local Danish arenas of transition concentrating on technology and practice related CO2 reductions within the housing and construction sector. In particular, the paper seeks to identify the various roles of local actors´´ deliberation in situated places of transition, thus...

  8. Integrating climate change adaptation into Dutch local policies and the role of contextual factors.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Maya Marieke; Coenen, Franciscus H.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Moving towards a more sustainable adaptation process requires closer integration of policies related to the environment. An important actor in this is the local government. This paper examines to what extend adaptation is currently being integrated into Dutch local policies, and what the role is of

  9. Post Milestone B Funding Climate and Cost Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    passed MS B in bust periods than it was for those that passed in boom periods. This observation was reported by the first paper in this series...5. iii did not experience a boom funding climate after passing MS B. That would require far more resources than were available for this paper ...acquisition policy and process. The paper employs three acquisition policy and process bins: • McNamara-Clifford (Fiscal Year (FY) 1964–FY 1969) • Defense

  10. The social costs of climate change. The IPCC second assessment report and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fankhauser, S.; Tol, R.S.J.

    1997-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have far-reaching impacts. Earlier studies have estimated an aggregated monetised damage equivalent to 1.5 to 2.0 % of World GDP (for 2 x CO2). According to these estimates, the OECD would face losses equivalent to 1.0 to 1.5 % of GDP, and developing countries 2.0 to 9.0 %. While these figures are preliminary and highly uncertain, recent findings have not, as yet, changed the general picture. As is shown in this paper, estimates that are fully corrected for differences in purchasing power parity do not significantly differ from the initial figures. Newer studies increasingly emphasise adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors, and the need for integrated assessment of damages. Incorporating these factors has lead to increased differences in estimated impacts between different regions and sectors. Estimates of market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, while non-market impacts have become more important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view. Earlier estimates range from about $5 to $125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on power functions in the level of climate change. The rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will differ from current vulnerability: market impacts could fall (relatively) with economic growth while non-market impacts may rise. 6 tabs., 65 refs

  11. Rural electrification, climate change, and local economies: Facilitating communication in development policy and practice on Nicaragua's Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casillas, Christian E.

    I explore the role of information and communication in the world of institution-led development. Through a series of case studies from the Atlantic Coast of Nicaragua, I present several projects and their implications for uncovering information that may lead to greater local benefit from externally-planned development projects. In order to construct policies and implement projects, development institutions collect, analyze, and simplify information, collapsing messy physical and social realities into narrow sets of metrics. In addition, local stakeholders often aren't privy to the analysis and assumptions of the "expert" planners. An evolved set of methods for dialogue and planning, which focus on sharing available information, can help facilitate outcomes that are more beneficial for targeted groups. Carbon abatement cost curves provide a clear example where the relations of complex social, economic, and environmental systems are reduced to a narrow set of metrics, specifically the cost of carbon mitigation and the total tons reduced. When the carbon abatement cost curve is applied to the community level, it reveals information and allows for conclusions obscured by aggregated national level studies. I show that there are opportunities for augmenting the limited metrics of these cost curves to include those that relate to welfare, beginning to highlight how costs and savings are distributed among stakeholders. In particular, the benefits to the most marginalized groups are heavily dependent on planners taking a pro-poor approach. However, planners typically remain blind to the priorities, capabilities, and values of the target stakeholders. There is a dearth of methods that effectively open up the development expert's black box of project designs, allowing their proposed solutions to be transparent to the target beneficiaries. I address this challenge through the presentation of a participatory modeling process that was utilized with groups of artisanal fishers

  12. AETIC - For an economic approach in the elaboration of local climate policies. Synthesis report (deliverable D4.1), June 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, P.; Menanteau, P.; Bougnoux, B.; Fournier, J.; Saujot, M.; Joumni, H.

    2013-06-01

    This document reports an exploratory research project which aimed at developing a methodology of identification and prioritisation of actions to be implemented in Territorial Climate-Energy Plans (PCETs), while basing on rigorous technical-economic criteria. The Grenoble metropolitan area has been chosen as a case study because of the commitment of local authorities in a sustainable development approach, in particularly in the elaboration of a PCET. The method is notably based on the construction of a set of sector-related curves of Marginal Costs of Reduction of emissions (CMRs). Measures adopted by local authorities are identified for three specific sectors: transports, buildings, and energy production and distribution. The authors also took other actions into account, such as the modification of urban morphology as it has impacts on mobility and transport offer. The report describes the project context, methods used for the construction of sector-related CMR curves, structuring scenarios regarding evolutions of urban morphology, of population and jobs. It reports results obtained for the three studied sectors, and tries to draw lessons from this global approach in terms of strategy and methodology

  13. A deterministic evaluation of heat stress mitigation and feed cost under climate change within the smallholder dairy sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    York, L; Heffernan, C; Rymer, C; Panda, N

    2017-05-01

    In the global South, dairying is often promoted as a means of poverty alleviation. Yet, under conditions of climate warming, little is known regarding the ability of small-scale dairy producers to maintain production and/or the robustness of possible adaptation options in meeting the challenges presented, particularly heat stress. The authors created a simple, deterministic model to explore the influence of breed and heat stress relief options on smallholder dairy farmers in Odisha, India. Breeds included indigenous Indian (non-descript), low-grade Jersey crossbreed and high-grade Jersey crossbreed. Relief strategies included providing shade, fanning and bathing. The impact of predicted critical global climate parameters, a 2°C and 4°C temperature rise were explored. A feed price scenario was modelled to illustrate the importance of feed in impact estimation. Feed costs were increased by 10% to 30%. Across the simulations, high-grade Jersey crossbreeds maintained higher milk yields, despite being the most sensitive to the negative effects of temperature. Low-capital relief strategies were the most effective at reducing heat stress impacts on household income. However, as feed costs increased the lower-grade Jersey crossbreed became the most profitable breed. The high-grade Jersey crossbreed was only marginally (4.64%) more profitable than the indigenous breed. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding the factors and practical trade-offs that underpin adaptation. The model also highlights the need for hot-climate dairying projects and programmes to consider animal genetic resources alongside environmentally sustainable adaptation measures for greatest poverty impact.

  14. The impact of FDI and domestic business climate on local entrepreneurship in Transcaucasia: A case of Georgia in the years 2005 – 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ucha Surmanidze

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of FDI inflow on local entrepreneurship in Georgia. The secondary objective of the article is to determine what effects the business climate in the country has on the growth of local entrepreneurs. To verify the impact of foreign investments on domestic entrepreneurship, dynamics of active local enterprises in Georgia in the years 2005-2014 is used as a dependent variable. In regard with business climate, international business and credit rankings were selected to show how they are interrelated with foreign investments and how they affect domestic entrepreneurs. FDI has no significant effect on local entrepreneurship in Georgia, neither on their growth, nor on their fall, as Its share in the local economy is nominal. It is noteworthy, however, that inflow of foreign capital has positive impact on the country’s business climate, promoting its image and rising international recognition. The favorable business climate can help many local enterprises, especially SMEs, to benefit from liberal environment, financial and tax incentives, less regulation and bureaucracy. This paper intends to enrich relatively poor literature about FDI effects on Transcaucasian countries, providing a clear understanding to what extend the local entrepreneurship are under the influence of FDI and general business climate in the country.

  15. IPH Submission to Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government Climate Change Response Bill 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Institute of Public Health in Ireland

    2011-01-01

    The main purpose of the Clmate Change Bill is to provide for the adoption of a national policy for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; to support this through the making of mitigation and adaptation action plans; and to make provision for emission reduction targets to support the objective of transition to a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy.The remit of the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is to promote cooperation for public health between...

  16. Heat savings and heat generation technologies: Modelling of residential investment behaviour with local health costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zvingilaite, Erika; Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    The trade-off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in Denmark. For each group the private economic cost of providing heating comfort is minimised. The private solution may deviate from the socio-economical optimal solution and we suggest changes to policy to incentivise the individuals to make choices more in line with the socio-economic optimal mix of energy savings and technologies. The households can combine their primary heating source with secondary heating e.g. a woodstove. This choice results in increased indoor air pollution with fine particles causing health effects. We integrate health cost due to use of woodstoves into household optimisation of heating expenditures. The results show that due to a combination of low costs of primary fuel and low environmental performance of woodstoves today, included health costs lead to decreased use of secondary heating. Overall the interdependence of heat generation technology- and heat saving-choice is significant. The total optimal level of heat savings for private consumers decrease by 66% when all have the option to shift to the technology with lowest variable costs. - Highlights: • Heat saving investment and heat technology choice are interdependent. • Health damage costs should be included in private heating choice optimisation. • Flexibility in heating technology choice reduce the optimal level of saving investments. • Models of private and socioeconomic optimal heating produce different technology mix. • Rebound effects are moderate but varies greatly among consumer categories

  17. Grassland/atmosphere response to changing climate: Coupling regional and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughenour, M.B.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Pielke, R.A.; Eastman, J.

    1993-10-01

    The objectives of the study were: to evaluate the response of grassland ecosystems to atmospheric change at regional and site scales, and to develop multiscaled modeling systems to relate ecological and atmospheric models with different spatial and temporal resolutions. A menu-driven shell was developed to facilitate use of models at different temporal scales and to facilitate exchange information between models at different temporal scales. A detailed ecosystem model predicted that C 3 temperate grasslands wig respond more strongly to elevated CO 2 than temperate C 4 grasslands in the short-term while a large positive N-PP response was predicted for a C 4 Kenyan grassland. Long-term climate change scenarios produced either decreases or increases in Colorado plant productivity (NPP) depending on rainfall, but uniform increases in N-PP were predicted in Kenya. Elevated CO 2 is likely to have little effect on ecosystem carbon storage in Colorado while it will increase carbon storage in Kenya. A synoptic climate classification processor (SCP) was developed to evaluate results of GCM climate sensitivity experiments. Roughly 80% agreement was achieved with manual classifications. Comparison of lx and 2xCO 2 GCM Simulations revealed relatively small differences

  18. Costs of climate measures in Norway; Kostnader ved klimatiltak i Norge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-08-22

    This report calculates the potential for emission reductions and the costs of measures for reducing the national emissions of greenhouse gases in Norway. The measures are analysed with respect to their influence on the global emissions. It is found that with little or no expenses Norway can contribute much more to the global emission reductions by increased export of electricity and gas than by increased national costs. In the oil and gas sector the potential for emission reduction is large, but the measures are expensive. In the transport sector the potential is relatively small and the measures expensive. In the industrial sector the potential is considerable and the measures moderately expensive, but the measures will probably make the production unprofitable if the companies must bear the costs themselves. Increased fixation of CO{sub 2} through measures in the forestry sector have a large potential and at low costs. Like previous macro economic analyses, the present analysis strongly indicates that the costs of stabilizing the emissions will be much higher in Norway than in other countries. 59 refs., 17 refs., 8 tabs.

  19. Building resilience into practical conservation: identifying local management responses to global climate change in the southern Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, J. A.; Marshall, P. A.; Johnson, J. E.; Harman, S.

    2010-06-01

    Climate change is now considered the greatest long-term threat to coral reefs, with some future change inevitable despite mitigation efforts. Managers must therefore focus on supporting the natural resilience of reefs, requiring that resilient reefs and reef regions be identified. We develop a framework for assessing resilience and trial it by applying the framework to target management responses to climate change on the southern Great Barrier Reef. The framework generates a resilience score for a site based on the evaluation of 19 differentially weighted indicators known or thought to confer resilience to coral reefs. Scores are summed, and sites within a region are ranked in terms of (1) their resilience relative to the other sites being assessed, and (2) the extent to which managers can influence their resilience. The framework was applied to 31 sites in Keppel Bay of the southern Great Barrier Reef, which has a long history of disturbance and recovery. Resilience and ‘management influence potential’ were both found to vary widely in Keppel Bay, informing site selection for the staged implementation of resilience-based management strategies. The assessment framework represents a step towards making the concept of resilience operational to reef managers and conservationists. Also, it is customisable, easy to teach and implement and effective in building support among local communities and stakeholders for management responses to climate change.

  20. The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valladares, Fernando; Matesanz, Silvia; Guilhaumon, François; Araújo, Miguel B; Balaguer, Luis; Benito-Garzón, Marta; Cornwell, Will; Gianoli, Ernesto; van Kleunen, Mark; Naya, Daniel E; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Poorter, Hendrik; Zavala, Miguel A

    2014-11-01

    Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

  1. IDENTIFYING LOCAL SCALE CLIMATE ZONES OF URBAN HEAT ISLAND FROM HJ-1B SATELLITE DATA USING SELF-ORGANIZING MAPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Wei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available With the increasing acceleration of urbanization, the degeneration of the environment and the Urban Heat Island (UHI has attracted more and more attention. Quantitative delineation of UHI has become crucial for a better understanding of the interregional interaction between urbanization processes and the urban environment system. First of all, our study used medium resolution Chinese satellite data-HJ-1B as the Earth Observation data source to derive parameters, including the percentage of Impervious Surface Areas, Land Surface Temperature, Land Surface Albedo, Normalized Differential Vegetation Index, and object edge detector indicators (Mean of Inner Border, Mean of Outer border in the city of Guangzhou, China. Secondly, in order to establish a model to delineate the local climate zones of UHI, we used the Principal Component Analysis to explore the correlations between all these parameters, and estimate their contributions to the principal components of UHI zones. Finally, depending on the results of the PCA, we chose the most suitable parameters to classify the urban climate zones based on a Self-Organization Map (SOM. The results show that all six parameters are closely correlated with each other and have a high percentage of cumulative (95% in the first two principal components. Therefore, the SOM algorithm automatically categorized the city of Guangzhou into five classes of UHI zones using these six spectral, structural and climate parameters as inputs. UHI zones have distinguishable physical characteristics, and could potentially help to provide the basis and decision support for further sustainable urban planning.

  2. Co-operative planning by utilities and local authorities. A solution to solve climate change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlenzing, C.; Steidle, T.

    2001-01-01

    Since the deregulation of German energy markets 1998 we can observe diverging planning interests and priorities of the local communities on one side and the local energy utilities on the other side. This seriously endangers the consensus in local energy planning achieved in the past which will be crucial in order to identify and implement effective greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies. This paper presents a co-operative planning approach which embeds systems analysis into a well structured communication, mediation and learning process for decision making. This process is supported by the cooperative modeling system MESAP, a software for energy and environmental planning, which integrates different energy models with an energy information system. This allows to combine traditional local energy planning with the more business oriented view of the utilities. The specific design of MESAP allows for a continuous 'sustainable' planning and monitoring similar to business tools for accounting and controlling in companies. (author)

  3. Both life-history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range-wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Megan L; Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

    2018-04-01

    Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species-wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life-history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species-wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species' range-not only those at the trailing range edge-could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species' latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade-off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species' ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest

  4. Use of cost-effective construction technologies in India to mitigate climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sengupta, N. [Forum of Scientists, Engineers and Technologists, Kolkata (India)

    2008-01-10

    Concentration of greenhouse gases plays a major role in raising the earth's temperature. Carbon dioxide, produced from burning of fossil fuels, is the principle greenhouse gas and efforts are being made at international level to reduce its emission through adoption of energy-efficient technologies. The UN Conference on Environment and Development, 1992 made a significant development in this field by initiating the discussion on sustainable development under the Agenda 21. Cost-effective construction technologies can bring down the embodied energy level associated with production of building materials by lowering use of energy-consuming materials. This embodied energy is a crucial factor for sustainable construction practices and effective reduction of the same would contribute in mitigating global warming. The cost-effective construction technologies would emerge as the most acceptable case of sustainable technologies in India both in terms of cost and environment.

  5. Using crowdsourced data from citizen weather stations to analyse air temperature in 'local climate zones' in Berlin, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenner, Daniel; Meier, Fred; Bechtel, Benjamin; Otto, Marco; Scherer, Dieter

    2017-04-01

    Provision of observational data with high spatial coverage over extended time periods still remains as one of the biggest challenges in urban climate research. Classical meteorological networks are seldomly designed to monitor atmospheric conditions in a broad variety of urban environments, though the heterogeneity of urban structures leads to distinct thermal characteristics on local scales, i.e., hundreds of metres to several kilometres. One approach to overcome the aforementioned challenges of observation networks is to use data from weather stations that are maintained by citizens. The private company 'netatmo' (www.netatmo.com) produces and distributes such citizen weather stations (CWS) around the world. The stations automatically send their data to the netatmo server, and the user decides if data are publicly shared. Shared data can freely be retrieved via an application programming interface. We collected air temperature (T) data for the year 2015 for the city of Berlin, Germany, and surroundings with more than 1500 'netatmo' CWS in the study area. The entire data set was thoroughly quality checked, and filter techniques, involving data from a reference network, were developed to address different types of errors associated with CWS data. Additionally, the accuracy of 'netatmo' CWS was checked in a climate chamber and in a long-term field experiment. Since the terms 'urban' and 'rural' are ambiguous in urban climate studies, Stewart and Oke (2012) developed the 'local climate zone' (LCZ) concept to enhance understanding and interpretation of air temperature differences in urban regions. LCZ classification for the study region was conducted using the 'WUDAPT' approach by Bechtel et al. (2015). The quality-checked CWS data were used to analyse T characteristics of LCZ classes in Berlin and surroundings. Specifically, we analysed how LCZ classes are represented by CWS in 2015, how T varies within each LCZ class ('intra-LCZ variability'), and if significant

  6. Fast local fragment chaining using sum-of-pair gap costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Otto, Christian; Hoffmann, Steve; Gorodkin, Jan

    2011-01-01

    , and rank the fragments to improve the specificity. Results: Here we present a fast and flexible fragment chainer that for the first time also supports a sum-of-pair gap cost model. This model has proven to achieve a higher accuracy and sensitivity in its own field of application. Due to a highly time...... alignment heuristics alone. By providing both the linear and the sum-of-pair gap cost model, a wider range of application can be covered. The software clasp is available at http://www.bioinf.uni-leipzig.de/Software/clasp/....

  7. Improving nursing morale in a climate of cost containment. Part 1. Organizational assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haw, M A; Claus, E G; Durbin-Lafferty, E; Iversen, S M

    1984-10-01

    Faced with declining resources for health care and greater pressures to improve productivity of nursing staff, nursing administrators must act now to develop organizational responses to morale problems among nursing staff. As part of a two-part series for JONA, the authors describe low-cost organizational approaches that address nursing morale. Presented in Part 1 is a low-cost diagnostic process for assessing needs of staff and appraising organizational dimensions contributing to morale. Assessment findings provide clear direction for developing organizational approaches for improving morale.

  8. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ice Mass Variations and the Local Climatic Factors in the Riparian Zone of Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inamdar, P.; Ambinakudige, S.

    2016-12-01

    Californian icefields are natural basins of fresh water. They provide irrigation water to the farms in the central valley. We analyzed the ice mass loss rates, air temperature and land surface temperature (LST) in Sacramento and San Joaquin basins in California. The digital elevation models from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) were used to calculate ice mass loss rate between the years 2002 and 2015. Additionally, Landsat TIR data were used to extract the land surface temperature. Data from local weather stations were analyzed to understand the spatiotemporal trends in air temperature. The results showed an overall mass recession of -0.8 ± 0.7 m w.e.a-1. We also noticed an about 60% loss in areal extent of the glaciers in the study basins between 2000 and 2015. Local climatic factors, along with the global climate patterns might have influenced the negative trends in the ice mass loss. Overall, there was an increase in the air temperature by 0.07± 0.02 °C in the central valley between 2000 and 2015. Furthermore, LST increased by 0.34 ± 0.4 °C and 0.55± 0.1 °C in the Sacramento and San Joaquin basins. Our preliminary results show the decrease in area and mass of ice mass in the basins, and changing agricultural practices in the valley.

  9. New local energy supply as a communal task. Solar statutes between local autonomy and global climatic and resources protection; Neue oertliche Energieversorgung als kommunale Aufgabe. Solarsatzungen zwischen gemeindlicher Selbstverwaltung und globalem Klima- und Ressourcenschutz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Longo, Fabio

    2010-07-01

    Cities and communities have a constitutionally secured autonomy. What means this within the range of the protection of climate and resources? May communities take over global tasks, or are these limited in their local sphere of activity? In the meantime, in most German city halls something is done for the employment of renewable energies. Under this aspect, the author of the contribution under consideration reports at first on a comprehensive jurisprudential answer on the fundamental question which local tasks are entitled to the cities and communities and how this affects the range of climate protection and resources protection. Moreover, up-to-date particularly disputed local solar statutes are evaluated legally.

  10. Climate change: assessment of the vulnerability of nuclear power and cost of adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paillere, H.; Cameron, R. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, Issy-les-Moulineaux, Paris (France); Caneill, J.-Y. [EDF Group, Paris, (France); Syri, S. [Aalto Univ., Dept. of Energy Technology, Aalto (Finland)

    2014-07-01

    This paper reports on the preliminary outcome of an OECD study (2013-14) aimed at assessing the vulnerability of nuclear power generation in the event of extreme weather events that could be induced by climate change. Nuclear power plants (NPPs), just as other energy infrastructures, can be affected by phenomena such as floods, storms, heat waves, droughts, etc. This paper reports on examples of extreme weather events that have affected the operation of NPPs, and describes the adaptation strategy that can be implemented to improve the resilience of existing generating assets as well as new infrastructures. (author)

  11. Long-term data from a small mammal community reveal loss of diversity and potential effects of local climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Simone; Sanchez-Suarez, Cristina; Rouco, Carlos; Palomo, L Javier; Fernández, M Carmen; Kufner, Maura B; Moreno, Sacramento

    2017-10-01

    Climate change affects distribution and persistence of species. However, forecasting species' responses to these changes requires long-term data series that are often lacking in ecological studies. We used 15 years of small mammal trapping data collected between 1978 and 2015 in 3 areas at Doñana National Park (southwest Spain) to (i) describe changes in species composition and (ii) test the association between local climate conditions and size of small mammal populations. Overall, 5 species were captured: wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus , algerian mouse Mus spretus , greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula , garden dormouse Eliomys quercinus , and black rat Rattus rattus . The temporal pattern in the proportion of captures of each species suggests that the small mammal diversity declined with time. Although the larger species (e.g., E. quercinus ), better adapted to colder climate, have disappeared from our trapping records, M. spretus , a small species inhabiting southwest Europe and the Mediterranean coast of Africa, currently is almost the only trapped species. We used 2-level hierarchical models to separate changes in abundance from changes in probability of capture using records of A. sylvaticus in all 3 areas and of M. spretus in 1. We found that heavy rainfall and low temperatures were positively related to abundance of A. sylvaticus , and that the number of extremely hot days was negatively related to abundance of M. spretus . Despite other mechanisms are likely to be involved, our findings support the importance of climate for the distribution and persistence of these species and raise conservation concerns about potential cascading effects in the Doñana ecosystem.

  12. Food Insecurity and Healthcare Costs: Research Strategies Using Local, State, and National Data Sources for Older Adults12

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung Sun

    2013-01-01

    Food insecurity in older adults is a clinically relevant problem with important implications for healthcare costs; however, few studies have examined the relationship between food insecurity and the healthcare cost burden in older adults. It may be due in part to lack of appropriate data and methods to examine these issues in the existing datasets. It is critical to identify and obtain the data necessary for estimating healthcare costs associated with food insecurity and to explore specific mechanisms by which food insecurity is related to adverse health outcomes and associated healthcare costs. This paper discusses how to best utilize and link available, nationally representative datasets and develop infrastructure and procedures to establish state and local datasets. As an example, an innovative approach tested in Georgia to establish a state-level dataset in a sample of low-income, older adults in need of food assistance is discussed. In this approach, data from the state aging services client database and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data were linked. Such efforts are essential to estimate the healthcare cost burden of food-insecure older adults who have a particularly higher burden of chronic diseases and direct future research, program, and policy decisions to improve the food and healthcare security of low-income, older adults. PMID:23319122

  13. Local climate determines intra- and interspecific variation in sexual size dimorphism in mountain grasshopper communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laiolo, P; Illera, J C; Obeso, J R

    2013-10-01

    The climate is often evoked to explain broad-scale clines of body size, yet its involvement in the processes that generate size inequality in the two sexes (sexual size dimorphism) remains elusive. Here, we analyse climatic clines of sexual size dimorphism along a wide elevation gradient (i) among grasshopper species in a phylogenetically controlled scenario and (ii) within species differing in distribution and cold tolerance, to highlight patterns generated at different time scales, mainly evolutionary (among species or higher taxa) and ontogenetic or microevolutionary (within species). At the interspecific level, grasshoppers were slightly smaller and less dimorphic at high elevations. These clines were associated with gradients of precipitation and sun exposure, which are likely indicators of other factors that directly exert selective pressures, such as resource availability and conditions for effective thermoregulation. Within species, we found a positive effect of temperature and a negative effect of elevation on body size, especially on condition-dependent measures of body size (total body length rather than hind femur length) and in species inhabiting the highest elevations. In spite of a certain degree of species-specific variation, females tended to adjust their body size more often than males, suggesting that body size in females can evolve faster among species and can be more plastic or dependent on nutritional conditions within species living in adverse climates. Natural selection on female body size may therefore prevail over sexual selection on male body size in alpine environments, and abiotic factors may trigger consistent phenotypic patterns across taxonomic scales. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  14. Reference evapotranspiration forecasting based on local meteorological and global climate information screened by partial mutual information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wei; Huang, Shengzhi; Huang, Qiang; Huang, Guohe; Meng, Erhao; Luan, Jinkai

    2018-06-01

    In this study, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) forecasting models are developed for the least economically developed regions subject to meteorological data scarcity. Firstly, the partial mutual information (PMI) capable of capturing the linear and nonlinear dependence is investigated regarding its utility to identify relevant predictors and exclude those that are redundant through the comparison with partial linear correlation. An efficient input selection technique is crucial for decreasing model data requirements. Then, the interconnection between global climate indices and regional ET0 is identified. Relevant climatic indices are introduced as additional predictors to comprise information regarding ET0, which ought to be provided by meteorological data unavailable. The case study in the Jing River and Beiluo River basins, China, reveals that PMI outperforms the partial linear correlation in excluding the redundant information, favouring the yield of smaller predictor sets. The teleconnection analysis identifies the correlation between Nino 1 + 2 and regional ET0, indicating influences of ENSO events on the evapotranspiration process in the study area. Furthermore, introducing Nino 1 + 2 as predictors helps to yield more accurate ET0 forecasts. A model performance comparison also shows that non-