Climate change adaptation strategies by local farmers in Kilombero ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This article examines current adaptation strategies developed by local farmers against climate change effects in Kilombero District. Research questions guided the study include; what are the past and current climatic stresses? What are local farmers' perception on climate change and response to the adverse climatic ...

The Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative: Climate Resilient Local Governments

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, J. G.

2008-12-01

Local governments, the first responders to public health, safety and environmental hazards, must act now to lessen vulnerabilities to climate change. They must plan for and invest in "adapting" to inevitable impacts such as flood, fire, and draught that will occur notwithstanding best efforts to mitigate climate change. CCAP's Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative is developing a framework for informed decision making on climate adaptation. Looking ahead to projected climate impacts and 'back casting' can identify what is needed now to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build local resiliency to climate change. CCAP's partnership with King County (WA), Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami-Dade County (FL), Milwaukee, Nassau County (NY), Phoenix, San Francisco, and Toronto is advancing policy discussions to ensure that state and local governments consider climate change when making decisions about infrastructure, transportation, land use, and resource management. Through the Initiative, local leaders will incorporate climate change into daily urban management and planning activities, proactively engage city and county managers and the public in developing solutions, and build community resilience. One goal is to change both institutional and public attitudes and behaviors. Determining appropriate adaptation strategies for each jurisdiction requires Asking the Climate Question: "How does what we are doing increase our resilience to climate change?" Over the next three years, the Initiative will design and implement specific adaptation plans, policies and 'catalytic' projects, collect and disseminate "best practices," and participate in framing national climate policy discussions. In the coming years, policy-makers will have to consider climate change in major infrastructure development decisions. If they are to be successful and have the resources they need, national climate change policy and emerging legislation will have to support these communities. The Urban Leaders

Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathan P. Kettle

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

Butterfly effect: understanding and mitigating the local consequences of climate change impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorenz, Donna

2007-01-01

Full text: The Butterfly Effect is the notion that tiny differences in initial conditions are amplified in the evolution of a dynamic system and directly affect the eventual outcome. In 1963 mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz proposed that the flapping of a butterfly's wing would cause a disturbance that becomes exponentially amplified so as to eventually affect large-scale atmospheric motion. This was to illustrate the 'sensitive dependence on initial conditions'; sensitivity also true in affecting the extent of damages experienced as a result of climate change. In a climate change context, The Butterfly Effect suggests the local consequences of climate change impacts will depend on their interaction with the economic, environmental, institutional, technological and demographic attributes unique to a city or region. It is this mix of factors that will determine the extent, both positively and negatively, to which climate change will be experienced locally. For a truly effective climate change response, it is imperative that regional risk assessments and adaptation strategies take into account not only the projected impacts but the full range of flow-on implications of those impacts and their sensitivity factors. Understanding of the sensitivity factors that will amplify or mitigate climate change impacts and implications enables government and business leaders to calculate the likely extent of localised damages if no adaptation is undertaken. This allows industries and communities to evaluate the likely significance of a particular impact and to consider how to adjust or counter the sensitivity factor to build resilience and reduce vulnerability. Thus, it also assists in the local prioritisation of issues and responses. Such a strategic response can also mean the required adaptation measures may be less extensive and thereby require less cost and time to implement. This paper discusses the flow-on implications of Australia's projected climate change

Localized Multi-Model Extremes Metrics for the Fourth National Climate Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, T. R.; Kunkel, K.; Stevens, L. E.; Easterling, D. R.; Biard, J.; Sun, L.

2017-12-01

We have performed localized analysis of scenario-based datasets for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). These datasets include CMIP5-based Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled simulations at daily temporal resolution and 1/16th-degree spatial resolution. Over 45 temperature and precipitation extremes metrics have been processed using LOCA data, including threshold, percentile, and degree-days calculations. The localized analysis calculates trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes metrics for relatively small regions such as counties, metropolitan areas, climate zones, administrative areas, or economic zones. For NCA4, we are currently addressing metropolitan areas as defined by U.S. Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Such localized analysis provides essential information for adaptation planning at scales relevant to local planning agencies and businesses. Nearly 30 such regions have been analyzed to date. Each locale is defined by a closed polygon that is used to extract LOCA-based extremes metrics specific to the area. For each metric, single-model data at each LOCA grid location are first averaged over several 30-year historical and future periods. Then, for each metric, the spatial average across the region is calculated using model weights based on both model independence and reproducibility of current climate conditions. The range of single-model results is also captured on the same localized basis, and then combined with the weighted ensemble average for each region and each metric. For example, Boston-area cooling degree days and maximum daily temperature is shown below for RCP8.5 (red) and RCP4.5 (blue) scenarios. We also discuss inter-regional comparison of these metrics, as well as their relevance to risk analysis for adaptation planning.

Uncovering Local Impacts – The Influence of Transnational Municipal Climate Networks on Urban Climate Governance

OpenAIRE

Busch, Henner; Bendlin, Lena; Fenton, Paul; Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik

2018-01-01

In recent years, many cities have joined transnational municipal climate networks (TMCNs), which were set up in response to climate change. Despite the fact that some of these TMCNs have been active for more than two decades, there has been no systematic investigation of the networks’ impact on local climate governance. In this article we attempt to answer if and how local climate governance has been influenced by municipalities’ memberships in TMCNs. Our assessment is based on an online surv...

Changing climatic conditions in the Upper Thames River Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simonovic, S.P.

2009-01-01

'Full text:' Many climate change impact studies have been conducted using a top-down approach. First, outputs from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered which are downscaled in a second step to the river basin scale using either a statistical/empirical or a dynamic approach. The local climatic signal that is obtained is then used as input into a hydrological model to assess the direct consequences in the basin. Problems related to this approach include: a high degree of uncertainty associated with GCM outputs; and an increase in uncertainty due to the downscaling approach. An original inverse approach is developed in this work in order to improve the understanding of the processes leading to hydrological hazards, including both flood and drought events. The developed approach starts with the analysis of existing guidelines and management practices in a river basin with respect to critical hydrological exposures that may lead to failure of the water resources system or parts thereof. This implies that vulnerable components of the river basin have to be identified together with the risk exposure. In the next step the critical hydrologic exposures (flood levels for example) are transformed into corresponding critical meteorological conditions (extreme precipitation events for example). These local weather scenarios are then be statistically linked to possible large-scale climate conditions that are available from the GCMs. The developed procedure allows for the assessment of the vulnerability of river basins with respect to climate forcing. It also provides a tool for identifying the spatial distribution of the vulnerability and risk. Vulnerability is here characterized by the incremental losses, expressed either quantitatively or qualitatively, due to a change in the probability and magnitude of hazard events driven by climatic forcing. Vulnerability is seen as the basis for risk mitigation measures for hydrologic extremes at the basin level. The

Evolving local climate adaptation strategies: incorporating influences of socio–economic stress

OpenAIRE

Hjerpe, Mattias; Glaas, Erik

2012-01-01

Socio-economic and climatic stresses affect local communities’ vulnerability toflooding. Better incorporation of socio-economic stress in local vulnerability assessments isimportant when planning for climate adaptation. This is rarely done due to insufficientunderstanding of their interaction, in both theory and practice. The omission leads to criticalweaknesses in local adaptation strategies. This study analyses how socio-economic stressinteract with climatic stress and shape local vulnerabi...

Approaches to local climate action in Colorado

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Y. D.

2011-12-01

Though climate change is a global problem, the impacts are felt on the local scale; it follows that the solutions must come at the local level. Fortunately, many cities and municipalities are implementing climate mitigation (or climate action) policies and programs. However, they face many procedural and institutional barriers to their efforts, such of lack of expertise or data, limited human and financial resources, and lack of community engagement (Krause 2011). To address the first obstacle, thirteen in-depth case studies were done of successful model practices ("best practices") of climate action programs carried out by various cities, counties, and organizations in Colorado, and one outside Colorado, and developed into "how-to guides" for other municipalities to use. Research was conducted by reading documents (e.g. annual reports, community guides, city websites), email correspondence with program managers and city officials, and via phone interviews. The information gathered was then compiled into a series of reports containing a narrative description of the initiative; an overview of the plan elements (target audience and goals); implementation strategies and any indicators of success to date (e.g. GHG emissions reductions, cost savings); and the adoption or approval process, as well as community engagement efforts and marketing or messaging strategies. The types of programs covered were energy action plans, energy efficiency programs, renewable energy programs, and transportation and land use programs. Between the thirteen case studies, there was a range of approaches to implementing local climate action programs, examined along two dimensions: focus on climate change (whether it was direct/explicit or indirect/implicit) and extent of government authority. This benchmarking exercise affirmed the conventional wisdom propounded by Pitt (2010), that peer pressure (that is, the presence of neighboring jurisdictions with climate initiatives), the level of

Think globally, act locally? Local climate change and energy policies in Sweden and the UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collier, U.; Loefstedt, R.E.

1997-01-01

While climate change is obviously a global environmental problem, there is nevertheless potential for policy initiatives at the local level. Although the competences of local authorities vary between countries, they all have some responsibilities in the crucial areas of energy and transport policy. This paper examines local competences in Sweden and the UK and looks at the responses to the climate change issue by six local authorities, focussing on energy related developments. The points of departure are very different in the two countries. Swedish local authorities are much more independent than UK ones, especially through the ownership of local energy companies. Yet, UK local authorities are relatively active in the climate change domain, at least in terms of drawing up response strategies, which they see as an opportunity for reasserting their role, after a long period of erosion of their powers. Furthermore, there is more scope for action in the UK, as in Sweden many potential measures, especially in the energy efficiency field, have already been taken. However, in both countries climate change is only a relatively marginal area of local environmental policy making and the political will, as well as the financial resources, for more radical measures are often absent. (Author)

A Meta-Analysis of Local Climate Change Adaptation Actions

Science.gov (United States)

Local governments are beginning to take steps to address the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and heat events. However, we do not have a clear understanding of what local governments are doing -- the extent to which they expect climate change to affect their...

Local governing of climate change in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berthou, Sara Kristine Gløjmar; Ebbesen, Betina Vind

2016-01-01

This paper is concerned with the ways in which Danish municipalities seek to mitigate climate change through a range of governance strategies. Through the analysis of ten municipal climate plans using the framework of Mitchell Dean, as well as extensive ethnographic fieldwork in two municipalities......, this paper explores how local climate change mitigation is shaped by particular rationalities and technologies of government, and thus seeks to illustrate how the strategies set out in the plans construe climate change mitigation from a certain perspective, thereby rendering some solutions more likely than...

Effects of future climate conditions on terrestrial export from coastal southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J. M.

2015-12-01

The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project (SBC-LTER) is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export is a central theme for the project. Here we combine the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model and daily precipitation and temperature downscaled using statistical downscaling based on localized constructed Analogs (LOCA) to estimate recent streamflow dynamics (2000 to 2014) and future conditions (2015 to 2100). The HRR model covers the SBC-LTER watersheds from just west of the Ventura River to Point Conception; a land area of roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The downscaled climate conditions have a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. Here, we use the Penman-Monteith method with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The HRR model is calibrated for the period 2000 to 2014 using USGS and LTER streamflow. An automated calibration technique is used. For future climate scenarios, we use mean 8-day land cover conditions. Future streamflow, ET and soil moisture statistics are presented and based on downscaled P and T from ten climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

Local climate protection programmes in Australia and New Zealand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoff, Jens Villiam

about climate change broadly in the involved councils/local communities. • The CCP programme gave councils a strong focus, which led to the formulation of a coherent program on climate change, and allowed them to take on a leadership role in the local community. The leadership role was important...... in aligning the agendas of different stakeholders, and in local efforts to achieve attitude- and culture changes towards a more environmentally sustainable local community. • The CCP programme created a network among participating councils for sharing experiences and motivating each other. It also provided...

Development and nationwide scale-up of Climate Matters, a localized climate change education program delivered by TV weathercasters.

Science.gov (United States)

Cullen, H. M.; Maibach, E.

2016-12-01

Most Americans view climate change as a threat that is distant in space (i.e., not here), time (i.e., not now), and species (i.e., not us). TV weathercasters are ideally positioned to educate Americans about the current and projected impacts of climate change in their community: they have tremendous reach, are trusted sources of climate information, and are highly skilled science communicators. In 2009, we learned that many weathercasters were potentially interested in reporting on climate change, but few actually were, citing significant barriers including a lack of time to prepare and air stories, and lack of access to high quality content. To test the premise that TV weathercasters can be effective climate educators - if supported with high quality localized climate communication content - in 2010 George Mason University, Climate Central and WLTX-TV (Columbia, SC) developed and pilot-tested Climate Matters, a series of short on-air (and online) segments about the local impacts of climate change, delivered by the station's chief meteorologist. During the first year, more than a dozen stories aired. To formally evaluate Climate Matters, we conducted pre- and post-test surveys of local TV news viewers in Columbia. After one year, WLTX viewers had developed a more science-based understanding of climate change than viewers of other local news stations, confirming our premise that when TV weathercasters report on the local implications of climate change, their viewers learn. Through a series of expansions, including the addition of important new partners - AMS, NASA, NOAA & Yale University - Climate Matters has become a comprehensive nationwide climate communication resource program for American TV weathercasters. As of March 2016, a network of 313 local weathercasters nationwide (at 202 stations in 111 media markets) are participating in the program, receiving new content on a weekly basis. This presentation will review the theoretical basis of the program, detail

Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

Science.gov (United States)

Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

2016-04-21

Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

Plasticity in variation of xylem and phloem cell characteristics of Norway spruce under different local conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jozica eGricar

2015-09-01

Full Text Available There is limited information on intra-annual plasticity of secondary tissues of tree species growing under different environmental conditions. To increase the knowledge about the plasticity of secondary growth, which allows trees to adapt to specific local climatic regimes, we examined climate–radial growth relationships of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. H. Karst. from three contrasting locations in the temperate climatic zone by analyzing tree-ring widths for the period 1932–2010, and cell characteristics in xylem and phloem increments formed in the years 2009–2011. Variation in the structure of xylem and phloem increments clearly shows that plasticity in seasonal dynamics of cambial cell production and cell differentiation exists on xylem and phloem sides. Anatomical characteristics of xylem and phloem cells are predominantly site-specific characteristics, because they varied among sites but were fairly uniform among years in trees from the same site. Xylem and phloem tissues formed in the first part of the growing season seemed to be more stable in structure, indicating their priority over latewood and late phloem for tree performance. Long-term climate and radial growth analyses revealed that growth was in general less dependent on precipitation than on temperature; however, growth sensitivity to local conditions differed among the sites. Only partial dependence of radial growth of spruce on climatic factors on the selected sites confirms its strategy to adapt the structure of wood and phloem increments to function optimally in local conditions.

Enhancement of Local Climate Analysis Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Horsfall, F. M.; Timofeyeva, M. M.; Dutton, J.

2012-12-01

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) will enhance its Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) to incorporate specific capabilities to meet the needs of various users including energy, health, and other communities. LCAT is an online interactive tool that provides quick and easy access to climate data and allows users to conduct analyses at the local level such as time series analysis, trend analysis, compositing, correlation and regression techniques, with others to be incorporated as needed. LCAT uses principles of Artificial Intelligence in connecting human and computer perceptions on application of data and scientific techniques in multiprocessing simultaneous users' tasks. Future development includes expanding the type of data currently imported by LCAT (historical data at stations and climate divisions) to gridded reanalysis and General Circulation Model (GCM) data, which are available on global grids and thus will allow for climate studies to be conducted at international locations. We will describe ongoing activities to incorporate NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS) reanalysis data (CFSR), NOAA model output data, including output from the National Multi Model Ensemble Prediction System (NMME) and longer term projection models, and plans to integrate LCAT into the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and its protocols for accessing model output and observational data to ensure there is no redundancy in development of tools that facilitate scientific advancements and use of climate model information in applications. Validation and inter-comparison of forecast models will be included as part of the enhancement to LCAT. To ensure sustained development, we will investigate options for open sourcing LCAT development, in particular, through the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).

Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Patz, J A; Olson, S H

2006-01-01

The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

Training NOAA Staff on Effective Communication Methods with Local Climate Users

Science.gov (United States)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Mayes, B.

2011-12-01

Since 2002 NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Services Division (CSD) offered training opportunities to NWS staff. As a result of eight-year-long development of the training program, NWS offers three training courses and about 25 online distance learning modules covering various climate topics: climate data and observations, climate variability and change, NWS national and local climate products, their tools, skill, and interpretation. Leveraging climate information and expertise available at all NOAA line offices and partners allows delivery of the most advanced knowledge and is a very critical aspect of the training program. NWS challenges in providing local climate services includes effective communication techniques on provide highly technical scientific information to local users. Addressing this challenge requires well trained, climate-literate workforce at local level capable of communicating the NOAA climate products and services as well as provide climate-sensitive decision support. Trained NWS climate service personnel use proactive and reactive approaches and professional education methods in communicating climate variability and change information to local users. Both scientifically-unimpaired messages and amiable communication techniques such as story telling approach are important in developing an engaged dialog between the climate service providers and users. Several pilot projects NWS CSD conducted in the past year applied the NWS climate services training program to training events for NOAA technical user groups. The technical user groups included natural resources managers, engineers, hydrologists, and planners for transportation infrastructure. Training of professional user groups required tailoring the instructions to the potential applications of each group of users. Training technical user identified the following critical issues: (1) Knowledge of target audience expectations, initial knowledge status, and potential use of climate

Ageing, exposure to pollution, and interactions between climate change and local seasons as oxidant conditions predicting incident hematologic malignancy at KINSHASA University clinics, Democratic Republic of CONGO (DRC).

Science.gov (United States)

Nkanga, Mireille Solange Nganga; Longo-Mbenza, Benjamin; Adeniyi, Oladele Vincent; Ngwidiwo, Jacques Bikaula; Katawandja, Antoine Lufimbo; Kazadi, Paul Roger Beia; Nzonzila, Alain Nganga

2017-08-23

The global burden of hematologic malignancy (HM) is rapidly rising with aging, exposure to polluted environments, and global and local climate variability all being well-established conditions of oxidative stress. However, there is currently no information on the extent and predictors of HM at Kinshasa University Clinics (KUC), DR Congo (DRC). This study evaluated the impact of bio-clinical factors, exposure to polluted environments, and interactions between global climate changes (EL Nino and La Nina) and local climate (dry and rainy seasons) on the incidence of HM. This hospital-based prospective cohort study was conducted at Kinshasa University Clinics in DR Congo. A total of 105 black African adult patients with anaemia between 2009 and 2016 were included. HM was confirmed by morphological typing according to the French-American-British (FAB) Classification System. Gender, age, exposure to traffic pollution and garages/stations, global climate variability (El Nino and La Nina), and local climate (dry and rainy seasons) were potential independent variables to predict incident HM using Cox regression analysis and Kaplan Meier curves. Out of the total 105 patients, 63 experienced incident HM, with an incidence rate of 60%. After adjusting for gender, HIV/AIDS, and other bio-clinical factors, the most significant independent predictors of HM were age ≥ 55 years (HR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.4-4.3; P = 0.003), exposure to pollution and garages or stations (HR = 4.9; 95% CI 2-12.1; P pollution, combined local dry season + La Nina and combined local dry season + El Nino were the most significant predictors of incident hematologic malignancy. These findings highlight the importance of aging, pollution, the dry season, El Nino and La Nina as related to global warming as determinants of hematologic malignancies among African patients from Kinshasa, DR Congo. Cancer registries in DRC and other African countries will provide more robust database for future researches on

A Meta-Analysis of Local Climate Change Adaptation Actions ...

Science.gov (United States)

Local governments are beginning to take steps to address the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and heat events. However, we do not have a clear understanding of what local governments are doing -- the extent to which they expect climate change to affect their community, the types of actions they have in place to address climate change, and the resources at their disposal for implementation. Several studies have been conducted by academics, non-governmental organizations, and public agencies to assess the status of local climate change adaptation. This project collates the findings from dozens of such studies to conduct a meta-analysis of local climate change adaptation actions. The studies will be characterized along several dimensions, including (a) methods used, (b) timing and geographic scope, (c) topics covered, (d) types of adaptation actions identified, (e) implementation status, and (f) public engagement and environmental justice dimensions considered. The poster presents the project's rationale and approach and some illustrative findings from early analyses. [Note: The document being reviewed is an abstract in which a poster is being proposed. The poster will enter clearance if the abstract is accepted] The purpose of this poster is to present the research framework and approaches I am developing for my ORISE postdoctoral project, and to get feedback on early analyses.

Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brooke E Penaluna

Full Text Available Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011, and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year, but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Local and cross-seasonal associations of climate and land use with abundance of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus

Science.gov (United States)

Saunders, Sarah P.; Ries, Leslie; Oberhasuer, Karen S.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Zipkin, Elise F.

2017-01-01

Quantifying how climate and land use factors drive population dynamics at regional scales is complex because it depends on the extent of spatial and temporal synchrony among local populations, and the integration of population processes throughout a species’ annual cycle. We modeled weekly, site-specific summer abundance (1994–2013) of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus at sites across Illinois, USA to assess relative associations of monarch abundance with climate and land use variables during the winter, spring, and summer stages of their annual cycle. We developed negative binomial regression models to estimate monarch abundance during recruitment in Illinois as a function of local climate, site-specific crop cover, and county-level herbicide (glyphosate) application. We also incorporated cross-seasonal covariates, including annual abundance of wintering monarchs in Mexico and climate conditions during spring migration and breeding in Texas, USA. We provide the first empirical evidence of a negative association between county-level glyphosate application and local abundance of adult monarchs, particularly in areas of concentrated agriculture. However, this association was only evident during the initial years of the adoption of herbicide-resistant crops (1994–2003). We also found that wetter and, to a lesser degree, cooler springs in Texas were associated with higher summer abundances in Illinois, as were relatively cool local summer temperatures in Illinois. Site-specific abundance of monarchs averaged approximately one fewer per site from 2004–2013 than during the previous decade, suggesting a recent decline in local abundance of monarch butterflies on their summer breeding grounds in Illinois. Our results demonstrate that seasonal climate and land use are associated with trends in adult monarch abundance, and our approach highlights the value of considering fine-resolution temporal fluctuations in population-level responses to environmental

Local Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change in Tropical Forests of Papua, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Boissière

2013-12-01

Full Text Available People everywhere experience changes and events that impact their lives. Knowing how they perceive, react, and adapt to climatic changes and events is helpful in developing strategies to support adaptation to climate change. Mamberamo in Papua, Indonesia, is a sparsely populated watershed of 7.8 million hectares possessing rich tropical forests. Our study compares scientific and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK on climate, and analyzes how local people in Mamberamo perceive and react to climatic variations. We compared meteorological data for the region with local views gathered through focus group discussions and interviews in six villages. We explored the local significance of seasonality, climate variability, and climate change. Mamberamo is subject to strikingly low levels of climatic variation; nonetheless local people highlighted certain problematic climate-related events such as floods and droughts. As our results illustrate, the implications vary markedly among villages. People currently consider climate variation to have little impact on their livelihoods when contrasted with other factors, e.g., logging, mining, infrastructure development, and political decentralization. Nonetheless, increased salinity of water supplies, crop loss due to floods, and reduced hunting success are concerns in specific villages. To gain local engagement, adaptation strategies should initially focus on factors that local people already judge important. Based on our results we demonstrate that TEK, and an assessment of local needs and concerns, provide practical insights for the development and promotion of locally relevant adaptation strategies. These insights offer a foundation for further engagement.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John J Wiens

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the "warm edges" of species' ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations, contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%, in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%, and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%. Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades.

Empirical methods for estimating future climatic conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

Applying the empirical approach permits the derivation of estimates of the future climate that are nearly independent of conclusions based on theoretical (model) estimates. This creates an opportunity to compare these results with those derived from the model simulations of the forthcoming changes in climate, thus increasing confidence in areas of agreement and focusing research attention on areas of disagreements. The premise underlying this approach for predicting anthropogenic climate change is based on associating the conditions of the climatic optimums of the Holocene, Eemian, and Pliocene with corresponding stages of the projected increase of mean global surface air temperature. Provided that certain assumptions are fulfilled in matching the value of the increased mean temperature for a certain epoch with the model-projected change in global mean temperature in the future, the empirical approach suggests that relationships leading to the regional variations in air temperature and other meteorological elements could be deduced and interpreted based on use of empirical data describing climatic conditions for past warm epochs. Considerable care must be taken, of course, in making use of these spatial relationships, especially in accounting for possible large-scale differences that might, in some cases, result from different factors contributing to past climate changes than future changes and, in other cases, might result from the possible influences of changes in orography and geography on regional climatic conditions over time

climate change adaptation strategies by local farmers in kilombero

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Osondu

climatic stresses? What are institutions and political structures influencing local farmer's adaptive capacity? ... ability of the systems to adjust to climate change and has three ..... seedlings, and use of improved seed varieties. Political structures ...

Single-Locus versus Multilocus Patterns of Local Adaptation to Climate in Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus, Pinaceae.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Om P Rajora

Full Text Available Natural plant populations are often adapted to their local climate and environmental conditions, and populations of forest trees offer some of the best examples of this pattern. However, little empirical work has focused on the relative contribution of single-locus versus multilocus effects to the genetic architecture of local adaptation in plants/forest trees. Here, we employ eastern white pine (Pinus strobus to test the hypothesis that it is the inter-genic effects that primarily drive climate-induced local adaptation. The genetic structure of 29 range-wide natural populations of eastern white pine was determined in relation to local climatic factors using both a reference set of SSR markers, and SNPs located in candidate genes putatively involved in adaptive response to climate. Comparisons were made between marker sets using standard single-locus outlier analysis, single-locus and multilocus environment association analyses and a novel implementation of Population Graphs. Magnitudes of population structure were similar between the two marker sets. Outlier loci consistent with diversifying selection were rare for both SNPs and SSRs. However, genetic distances based on the multilocus among population covariances (cGD were significantly more correlated to climate, even after correcting for spatial effects, for SNPs as compared to SSRs. Coalescent simulations confirmed that the differences in mutation rates between SSRs and SNPs did not affect the topologies of the Population Graphs, and hence values of cGD and their correlations with associated climate variables. We conclude that the multilocus covariances among populations primarily reflect adaptation to local climate and environment in eastern white pine. This result highlights the complexity of the genetic architecture of adaptive traits, as well as the need to consider multilocus effects in studies of local adaptation.

Climatic growing conditions of Jatropha curcas L.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maes, W.H.; Achten, W.M.J.; Muys, B. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Trabucco, A. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); International Water Management Institute (IWMI), P.O. Box 2075, Colombo (Sri Lanka)

2009-10-15

The massive investment in new jatropha plantations worldwide is not sufficiently based on a profound scientific knowledge of its ecology. In this article, we define the climatic conditions in its area of natural distribution by combining the locations of herbarium specimens with corresponding climatic information, and compare these conditions with those in 83 jatropha plantations worldwide. Most specimens (87%) were found in tropical savannah and monsoon climates (A{sub m}, A{sub w}) and in temperate climates without dry season and with hot summer (C{sub fa}), while very few were found in semi-arid (B{sub S}) and none in arid climates (B{sub W}). Ninety-five percent of the specimens grew in areas with a mean annual rainfall above 944 mm year{sup -1} and an average minimum temperature of the coldest month (T{sub min}) above 10.5 C. The mean annual temperature range was 19.3-27.2 C. The climatic conditions at the plantations were different from those of the natural distribution specimens for all studied climatic variables, except average maximum temperature in the warmest month. Roughly 40% of the plantations were situated in regions with a drier climate than in 95% of the area of the herbarium specimens, and 28% of the plantations were situated in areas with T{sub min} below 10.5 C. The observed precipitation preferences indicate that jatropha is not common in regions with arid and semi-arid climates. Plantations in arid and semi-arid areas hold the risk of low productivity or irrigation requirement. Plantations in regions with frost risk hold the risk of damage due to frost. (author)

Providing the Larger Climate Context During Extreme Weather - Lessons from Local Television News

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, M.; Cullen, H. M.

2015-12-01

Local television weathercasters, in their role as Station Scientists, are often called upon to educate viewers about the science and impacts of climate change. Climate Central supports these efforts through its Climate Matters program. Launched in 2010 with support from the National Science Foundation, the program has grown into a network that includes more than 245 weathercasters from across the country and provides localized information on climate and ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses in both English and Spanish. This presentation will focus on discussing best practices for integrating climate science into the local weather forecast as well as advances in the science of extreme event attribution. The Chief Meteorologist at News10 (Sacramento, CA) will discuss local news coverage of the ongoing California drought, extreme weather and climate literacy.

A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modeling in Future Climatic Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dasaraden Mauree

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Building more energy-efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effects of climate change and anticipate living conditions in future climate scenarios requires the development of new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architects and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099 were run, as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P. We analyzed the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of buildings and determined the relevance of taking into account the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations confirmed that in the future, there will be a constant decrease in the heating demand, while the cooling demand will substantially increase. Significantly, it was further demonstrated that when the local urban climate was taken into account, there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand, but also that a set of proposed Minergie-P renovations were not sufficient to achieve resilient buildings. We discuss the implication of this work for the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighborhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspectives regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for future urban areas.

A Methodology for Meta-Analysis of Local Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Science.gov (United States)

Local governments are beginning to take steps to address the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and heat events. However, we donot have a clear understanding of what local governments are doing -- the extent to which they expect climate change to affect their ...

Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

Reproductive parameters of tropical lesser noddies respond to local variations in oceanographic conditions and weather

Science.gov (United States)

Monticelli, David; Ramos, Jaime A.; Catry, Teresa; Pedro, Patricia; Paiva, Vitor H.

2014-02-01

Most attempts to link seabirds and climate/oceanographic effects have concerned the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans with comparatively few studies in the tropical Indian Ocean. This paper examines the reproductive response of the lesser noddy Anous tenuirostris to temporal fluctuations in oceanographic and climatic conditions using 8 years of monitoring data from Aride Island (Seychelles), tropical Western Indian Ocean. We tested the hypothesis that breeding parameters (mean hatching date, mean egg size, hatching and fledging successes) and chick growth are influenced by local, seasonal oceanographic conditions as expressed by ocean primary productivity (surface chlorophyll-a concentrations; CC), sea surface temperature (SST) and wind speed. We also examined the relationship between lesser noddy breeding parameters and climate conditions recorded at the basin-wide scale of the Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index, DMI). Our findings suggest that birds had a tendency to lay slightly larger eggs during breeding seasons (years) with higher CC during April-June (pre-laying, laying and incubation periods). Hatching date was positively related to SST in April-June, with the regression parameters suggesting that each 0.5 °C increase in SST meant a delay of approx.10 days in hatching date. A negative linear relationship was also apparent between hatching success and SST in June-August (hatching and chick-rearing periods), while the quadratic regression models detected a significant effect of wind speed in June-August on fledging success. Body mass increments of growing chicks averaged over 7-day periods were positively related with (2-week) lagged CC values and negatively related with (2-week) lagged SST values. No significant relationship between DMI and lesser noddy breeding parameters was found, but DMI indices were strongly correlated with local SST. Altogether, our results indicate that the reproduction of this top marine predator is dictated by fluctuations in

Performance of desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy under different climatic conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Agouz, S.A.; Kabeel, A.E.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The performance of the hybrid air conditioning system is studied. • The influence of important operating parameters are estimated. • The ventilation, makeup and mix cycles are investigated at different climate. • The highest COP of the hybrid air conditioning system is 1.03. • The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates. - Abstract: Energy saving still and continue a major seek in our life, due to the continuous increase in energy consumptions. So, a desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy is conducted in the current study. The thermal analysis of air conditioning system with its different components desiccant wheel, solar collector, heat exchanger, ground heat exchanger and water spray evaporative cooler is presented. Three different air conditioning cycles are simulated in the current study for different zones like: hot-dry zone, warm-dry zone, hot-humid zone and the warm-humid zone. The results show that the desiccant air conditioning system successfully provides a better thermal comfort condition in different climates. This hybrid system significantly decreases the supplied air temperature from 12.7 to 21.7 °C at different climate zones. When ω in , air and T Reg increasing, COP decreases and the ventilation cycle provides the better COP. The highest COP value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 1.03 while the lowest value is about 0.15. The SHR of makeup cycle is higher than that ventilation cycle at warm and hot-humid zone and vice versa at warm and hot-dry zone. The highest SHR value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 0.99 while the lowest value is about 0.2. The T sup,air , ω sup,air , COP and SHR isolines may easily be used for pre-evaluating of various cooling cycles in different climates. The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates

Local climate policy in practice. Use of the playing field, impact of trends and the integration of climate care in municipal policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menkveld, M.; Burger, H.; Kaal, M.B.T.; Coenen, F.H.J.M.

2001-10-01

The result of the first research phase of the project was an outline of the playing field of local climate policy. The use of options and instruments from the playing field is examined on the basis of literature and interviews with local governments. In the process, barriers for the implementation of options are illustrated. The evaluation of the playing field in practise shows that local governments often only use part of their playing field. Even local governments that excel and are familiar throughout the country in relation to one particular task area ignore other task areas. The reasons why options and instruments are not fully utilised vary per task area: not enough internal support; lack of clear policy framework; climate policy must join in with other targets or local governments depend on cooperation of other actors. Nevertheless, generally speaking the success and failure factors in utilising options in the local government playing field are often related to the sphere of cooperation with other parties and the input of knowledge in the organisation of the local government. Moreover, the importance of climate is not made explicit enough in many task areas. The options in climate policy for local governments are influenced by social developments. In the study three trends are examined with respect to their influence: developments in the area of liberalisation of the energy market, the position of local governments in national environmental policy and changes in local democracy. These trends result in a complication of the role of local governments. Local governments must show more initiative than in the past. Liberalisation leads to a more business-oriented relationship with energy companies and probably lower energy prices. Larger freedom of policy results in more space for establishing local priorities, but does not necessarily result in more attention for local climate policy. Participation can result in a larger support for climate policy but also

Preparing for climate change: a perspective from local public health officers in California.

Science.gov (United States)

Bedsworth, Louise

2009-04-01

The most recent scientific findings show that even with significant emission reductions, some amount of climate change is likely inevitable. The magnitude of the climate changes will depend on future emissions and climate sensitivity. These changes will have local impacts, and a significant share of coping with these changes will fall on local governmental agencies. Public health is no exception, because local public health agencies are crucial providers of disease prevention, health care, and emergency preparedness services. This article presents the results of a survey of California's local pubic health officers conducted between August and October 2007. The survey gauged health officers' concerns about the public health impacts of climate change, programs in place that could help to mitigate these health effects, and information and resource needs for better coping with a changing climate. The results of this survey show that most public health officers feel that climate change poses a serious threat to public health but that they do not feel well equipped in terms of either resources or information to cope with that threat. Nonetheless, public health agencies currently implement a number of programs that will help these agencies handle some of the challenges posed by a changing climate. Overall, the results suggest that local public health agencies in California are likely in a better position than they perceive to address the threats associated with climate change but that there is a larger role for them to play in climate policy.

Using Local Stories as a Call to Action on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Minnesota

Science.gov (United States)

Phipps, M.

2015-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy and the University of Minnesota's Regional Sustainability Development Partnerships (RSDP) have developed a novel approach to engaging rural Minnesotans on climate change issues. Through the use of personal, local stories about individuals' paths to action to mitigate and or adapt to climate change, Climate Generation and RSDP aim to spur others to action. Minnesota's Changing Climate project includes 12 Climate Convenings throughout rural Minnesota in a range of communities (tourism-based, agrarian, natural resources-based, university towns) to engage local populations in highly local conversations about climate change, its local impacts, and local solutions currently occurring. Climate Generation and RSDP have partnered with Molly Phipps Consulting to evaluate the efficacy of this approach in rural Minnesota. Data include pre and post convening surveys examining participants' current action around climate change, attitudes toward climate change (using questions from Maibach, Roser-Renouf, and Leiserowitz, 2009), and the strength of their social network to support their current and ongoing work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change. Although the Climate Convenings are tailored to each community, all include a resource fair of local organizations already engaging in climate change mitigation and adaptation activities which participants can participate in, a welcome from a trusted local official, a presentation on the science of climate change, sharing of local climate stories, and break-out groups where participants can learn how to get involved in a particular mitigation or adaptation strategy. Preliminary results have been positive: participants feel motivated to work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change, and more local stories have emerged that can be shared in follow-up webinars and on a project website to continue to inspire others to act.

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal

Implementing European climate adaptation policy. How local policymakers react to European policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Hartmann

2015-04-01

Full Text Available EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these EU networks have on the adaptive capacity in cities. This paper uses two Dutch cities as an empirical base to evaluate the influence of two EU climate adaptation projects on both the experience of local public officials and the adaptive capacity in the respective cities. The main conclusion is that EU climate adaptation projects do not automatically lead to an increased adaptive capacity in the cities involved. This is due to the political opportunistic use of EU funding, which hampers the implementation of climate adaptation policies. Furthermore, these EU projects draw attention away from local network building focused on the development and implementation of climate adaptation policies. These factors have a negative cumulative impact on the performance of these transnational policy networks at the adaptive capacity level in the cities involved. Therefore, in order to strengthen the adaptive capacity in today’s European cities, a context-specific, integrative approach in urban planning is needed at all spatial levels. Hence, policy entrepreneurs should aim to create linkage between the issues in the transnational city network and the concerns in local politics and local networks.

Assessment of monitored energy use and thermal comfort conditions in mosques in hot-humid climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Al-Homoud, Mohammad S.; Abdou, Adel A.; Budaiwi, Ismail M. [Architectural Engineering Department, KFUPM, Dhahran 31261 (Saudi Arabia)

2009-06-15

In harsh climatic regions, buildings require air-conditioning in order to provide an acceptable level of thermal comfort. In many situations buildings are over cooled or the HVAC system is kept running for a much longer time than needed. In some other situations thermal comfort is not achieved due to improper operation practices coupled with poor maintenance and even lack it, and consequently inefficient air-conditioning systems. Mosques represent one type of building that is characterized by their unique intermittent operating schedule determined by prayer times, which vary continuously according to the local solar time. This paper presents the results of a study designed to monitor energy use and thermal comfort conditions of a number of mosques in a hot-humid climate so that both energy efficiency and the quality of thermal comfort conditions especially during occupancy periods in such intermittently operated buildings can be assessed accurately. (author)

Promoting interactions between local climate change mitigation, sustainable energy development, and rural development policies in Lithuania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Streimikiene, Dalia; Baležentis, Tomas; Kriščiukaitienė, Irena

2012-01-01

Lithuania has developed several important climate change mitigation policy documents however there are no attempts in Lithuania to develop local climate change mitigation policies or to decentralize climate change mitigation policy. Seeking to achieve harmonization and decentralization of climate change mitigation and energy policies in Lithuania the framework for local climate change mitigation strategy need to be developed taking into account requirements, targets and measures set in national climate change mitigation and energy policy documents. The paper will describe how national climate change mitigation and energy policies can be implemented via local energy and climate change mitigation plans. The aim of the paper is to analyze the climate change mitigation policy and its relationship with policies promoting sustainable energy development in Lithuania and to present a framework for local approaches to climate change mitigation in Lithuania, in the context of the existing national and supra-national energy, climate change, and rural development policies. - Highlights: ► The framework for local energy action plans is offered. ► The structural support possibilities are assessed with respect to the Lithuanian legal base. ► The proposals are given for further promotion of sustainable energy at the local level.

Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W; Li, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011-2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed.

Presenting a Framework to Analyze Local Climate Policy and Action in Small and Medium-Sized Cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Hoppe

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Academic attention to local climate policy usually focuses on large-sized cities. Given the climate challenges ahead this seems unjustified. Small and medium-sized cities (SMCs deserve scholarly attention as well. The main question is: What factors influence climate change policy and local climate actions in SMCs? In this article we present an analytical framework to analyze climate change policy and local climate actions of SMCs. The framework addresses different aspects: policy-input, -throughput, -output, -outcome, characteristics of the local environment, local action arenas, influence by higher government levels, and interaction with climate change issue networks. The framework is used to analyze and compare four case studies of SMCs in the Dutch region of Twente (two urban and two rural municipalities, and addresses both adaptation and mitigation. Results show that both ‘localist’, ‘multi-level’ and issue network membership factors influence local climate policy action. Governance modes discerned concern mostly ‘governing by authority’ and ‘self-governing’. When reflecting on the role of SMCs in climate action the study revealed the importance of local capacity building schemes issued by provincial government, inter-municipal network collaboration, and the potential for local governments to mobilize and organize citizen action.

A local scale assessment of the climate change sensitivity of snow in Pyrenean ski resorts

Science.gov (United States)

Pesado, Cristina; Pons, Marc; Vilella, Marc; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio

2016-04-01

The Pyrenees host one of the largest ski area in Europe after the Alps that encompasses the mountain area of the south of France, the north of Spain and the small country of Andorra. In this region, winter tourism is one of the main source of income and driving force of local development on these mountain communities. However, this activity was identified as one of the most vulnerable to a future climate change due to the projected decrease of natural snow and snowmaking capacity. However, within the same ski resorts different areas showed to have a very different vulnerability within the same resort based on the geographic features of the area and the technical management of the slopes. Different areas inside a same ski resort could have very different vulnerability to future climate change based on aspect, steepness or elevation. Furthermore, the technical management of ski resorts, such as snowmaking and grooming were identified to have a significant impact on the response of the snowpack in a warmer climate. In this line, two different ski resorts were deeply analyzed taken into account both local geographical features as well as the effect of the technical management of the runs. Principal Component Analysis was used to classify the main areas of the resort based on the geographic features (elevation, aspect and steepness) and identify the main representative areas with different local features. Snow energy and mass balance was simulated in the different representative areas using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) assuming different magnitudes of climate warming (increases of 2°C and 4°C in the mean winter temperature) both in natural conditions and assuming technical management of the slopes. Theses first results showed the different sensitivity and vulnerability to climate changes based on the local geography of the resort and the management of the ski runs, showing the importance to include these variables when analyzing the local vulnerability

Gender and climate change in the Indian Hindu-Kush Himalayas: global threats, local vulnerabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Ogra, M. V.; Badola, R.

2014-11-01

Global climate change has numerous implications for members of mountain communities who feel the impacts in both physical and social dimensions. In the Western Himalayas of India, a majority of residents maintain a livelihood strategy that includes a combination of subsistence or small-scale agriculture, seasonal pastoral migration, male out-migration, and localized natural resource extraction. Particularly under conditions of heavy male outmigration, but throughout the region, mountain women play a key role in providing labor and knowledge related to the management of local natural resources, yet often lack authority in related political and economic decision-making processes. This gap has important implications for addressing the impacts of climate change: while warming temperatures, irregular patterns of precipitation and snowmelt, and changing biological systems present challenges to the viability of these traditional livelihood portfolios throughout the region, mountain women increasingly face new challenges in their roles as household managers that have not adequately been emphasized in larger scale planning for climate change adaptation and mitigation. These challenges are complex in nature, and are shaped not only by gender issues but also interacting factors such as class, caste, ethnicity, and age (among others). In this paper, we review the main arguments behind the discursive gender/climate change nexus, discuss the implications for gendered vulnerabilities and transformation of adaptive capacities in the region, and suggest ways that researchers and policymakers seeking to promote "climate justice" can benefit from the incorporation of gender-based perspectives and frameworks.

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

2016-03-10

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

Decision-Support System for Urban Air Pollution under Future Climate Conditions

OpenAIRE

Jensen , Steen ,; Brandt , Jørgen; Hvidberg , Martin; Ketzel , Matthias; Hedegaard , Gitte ,; Christensen , Jens ,

2011-01-01

Part 6: Climate Services and Environmental Tools for Urban Planning and Climate Change Applications and Services; International audience; Climate change is expected to influence urban living conditions and challenge the ability of cities to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Urban climates will be faced with elevated temperatures and future climate conditions are expected to cause higher ozone concentrations, increased biogenic emissions from vegetation, changes in the chemistry of the atm...

Properties of volcanic soils in cold climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Kuznetsova, Elena

2017-04-01

Layers of volcanic ash and the Andosol soils derived from them may play an important role in preserving snow and ice as well as developing permafrost conditions in the immediate vicinity of volcanoes of high elevation or those situated at high latitudes, and land areas, often distant from volcanic activity that are either prone to permafrost or covered by snow and ice, but are affected by the deposition of subaerial ash. The special properties of volcanic ash that are responsible are critically reviewed particularly in relation to recent research in Kamchatka in the Far East of Russia. Of particular importance are the thermal properties and the unfrozen water contents of ash layers and the rate at which the weathering of volcanic glass takes place. Volcanic glass is the most easily weathered component of volcanic ejecta (Shoji et al., 1993; Kimble et al., 2000). There are many specific environmental conditions, including paleoclimate and present-day climate, the composition of volcanic tephra and glaciation history, which cause the differences in weathering and development of volcanic ash soils (Zehetner et al., 2003). The preservation of in situ, unweathered, and unaltered surficial ash-fall deposits in the cold regions has important implications for paleoclimate and glacial history. Ash-fall deposits, which trap and preserve the soils, sediments, and landforms on which they fall, can be used to resolve local climate conditions (temperature and moisture) at the ash site during ash-fall deposition. The preservation of detailed sedimentary features (e.g. bedding in the ash, sharpness of stratigraphic contacts) can tell us about their post-depositional history, whether they have been redeposited by wind or water, or overridden by glaciers (Marchant et al., 1996). Weathering of volcanic glass results in the development of amorphous clay minerals (e.g. allophane, opal, palagonite) but this takes place much slower in cold than under warmer climate conditions. Only few

Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

Science.gov (United States)

Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

2014-01-01

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2017-09-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2018-06-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Impact of Rice Paddy Areas Decrease on Local Climate over Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, M. H.; Wen, W. H.; Chen, C. C.

2014-12-01

Agricultural irrigation practice is one of the important anthropogenic processes in the land surface modeling. Irrigation can decrease local surface temperature with alternating surface energy partitioning. Rice paddy is the major food crop in Asian monsoon region and rice is grown under flooded conditions during the growing season; hence, the rice paddy can be considered as an open water body, which has more impacts on the surface energy budget than other cropland does. In this study, we explore how the rice paddy area changes affect Taiwan's regional climate from both observational data and numerical modeling exercise. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is utilized to explore impacts of rice paddy area changes on the regional climate, and energy and water budget changes. In addition, temperature datasets from six automatic weather stations in the northern Taiwan and two stations in the southern Taiwan are analyzed in this study to explore how the Daily Temperature Range (DTR) changes with the decreased rice paddy areas. Previous studies show that due to the urban heat island effect, aerosol direct and indirect effects, and global warming, the DTR has decreased in the past 4 decades observed from most of the weather stations around Taiwan. However, the declined rice paddy area may increase the DTR with higher Bowen ratio during the daytime. Preliminary results show that DTR is decreased in weather stations near the urban area, but increased in weather stations near fallow areas in the past 20 years. It shows that different land use changes may have opposite impacts on local and regional climate.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

Science.gov (United States)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

People as sensors: mass media and local temperature influence climate change discussion on Twitter

Science.gov (United States)

Kirilenko, A.; Molodtsova, T.; Stepchenkova, S.

2014-12-01

We examined whether people living under significant temperature anomalies connect their sensory experiences to climate change and the role that media plays in this process. We used Twitter messages containing words "climate change" and "global warming" as the indicator of attention that public pays to the issue. Specifically, the goals were: (1) to investigate whether people immediately notice significant local weather anomalies and connect them to climate change and (2) to examine the role of mass media in this process. Over 2 million tweets were collected for a two-year period (2012 - 2013) and were assigned to 157 urban areas in the continental USA (Figure 1). Geographical locations of the tweets were identified with a geolocation resolving algorithm based the profile of the users. Daily number of tweets (tweeting rate) was computed for 157 conterminous USA urban areas and adjusted for data acquisition errors. The USHCN daily minimum and maximum temperatures were obtained for the station locations closest to the centers of the urban areas and the 1981-2010 30-year temperature mean and standard deviation were used as the climate normals. For the analysis, we computed the following indices for each day of 2012 - 2013 period: standardized temperature anomaly, absolute standardized temperature anomaly, and extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies for each urban zone. The extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies were then transformed into country-level values that represent the number of people living in extreme temperature conditions. The rate of tweeting on climate change was regressed on the time variables, number of climate change publications in the mass media, and temperature. In the majority of regression models, the mass media and temperature variables were significant at the pmedia acts as a mediator in the relationship between local weather and climate change discourse intensity. Our analysis of Twitter data confirmed that the public is able to

Effects of local adaptation and interspecific competition on species' responses to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Bocedi, Greta; Atkins, Katherine E; Liao, Jishan; Henry, Roslyn C; Travis, Justin M J; Hellmann, Jessica J

2013-09-01

Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Presenting a Framework to Analyze Local Climate Policy and Action in Small and Medium-Sized Cities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoppe, Thomas; van der Vegt, Arjen; Stegmaier, Peter

2016-01-01

Academic attention to local climate policy usually focuses on large-sized cities. Given the climate challenges ahead this seems unjustified. Small and medium-sized cities (SMCs) deserve scholarly attention as well. The main question is: What factors influence climate change policy and local climate

Local climate change policy in the United Kingdom and Germany

OpenAIRE

Bulkeley, Harriet; Kern, Kristine

2004-01-01

"For over a decade climate change has been considered one of the most significant political issues facing the international community. In order to address this challenge, attention needs to be focused not only at the international level of treaties and conventions, but also on how climate protection policy is taking shape at the local level. Germany and the UK have been leading countries for international action on climate change. However, the reductions in domestic emissions of greenhouse ga...

The Dutch Approach to Local Climate Action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schellekens, R.

2008-01-01

In the Netherlands we are working with municipalities on the subjects of RES and RUE for over 15 years now. Over the last 4 years we worked with 250 out of 430 municipalities on setting up and executing their local climate policies. For this there was a national climate covenant between the national government, the association of municipalities and the association of provinces. The municipalities and provinces were supported through a subsidy scheme and the help of SenterNovem. Products like the climate menu, the climate scan and an organisational assessment were developed to aid the municipalities in their process. Through involvement of different stake holders within the municipality or a region concerning the climate policy and the execution thereof, production of RES is stimulated and goals on energy saving are more likely to be reached. Through the involvement of stake holders and by making climate change an integral part of the municipal organisation an irreversible process is started. Thus economic competitiveness and innovations are stimulated. The municipality and the region will gain economic strength through this. Results in the Netherlands on a municipal level are inspiring. More and more municipalities are developing long-term strategies at the moment. Goals like energy neutrality, climate neutrality and CO 2 neutrality in a set year are usually the basis of these strategies. Through these strategies Dutch municipalities become increasingly less dependent on energy sources outside their boarders. On a European level the Dutch approach ties in with the Covenant of Mayors which is launched by the EU.(author)

Net energy value of maize ethanol as a response to different climate and soil conditions in the southeastern USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Persson, Tomas; Garcia y Garcia, Axel; Paz, Joel O.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit [Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, 1109 Experiment Street, The University of Georgia, Griffin, GA 30223 (United States); Jones, James W. [Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Frazier Rogers Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States)

2009-08-15

A recent increase in the demand for bio-ethanol has sparked maize production in the USA and other countries across the world. The net energy value (NEV), i.e. the energy output in ethanol and co-products after accounting for energy input requirements in the production chain of ethanol, is a measure of its sustainability. Grain yield of maize, which varies substantially across different climate and soil conditions, greatly impacts the ethanol NEV. The objectives of this study were to determine i) the NEV of ethanol produced from maize grown in four production regions in the southeastern USA and, ii) the specific impact of local soil variability under the same climate conditions within the four regions on the NEV of maize-ethanol. Maize yield was simulated with the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize model for soil and weather conditions, and management practices representing Bulloch, Floyd, Laurens and Mitchell counties, Georgia, USA. The calculation of ethanol NEV took into account the energy inputs and outputs of the entire ethanol production chain, and was based on the crop simulations. There were statistically significant differences in ethanol NEV among the counties, and within counties due to local soil variability. Differences in ethanol NEV among counties were partially due to different transportation distances. Based on the results of this study, it was concluded that maize-ethanol NEV can be increased by accounting for the soil and climate factors in the feedstock production and by locating ethanol-processing facilities in regions with soil and climate conditions that are favorable for ethanol-maize production. (author)

Localizing Climate Information for Municipal Planning in the Central U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Shulski, M.; Umphlett, N.; Abdel-Monem, T.; Tang, Z.; Uhlarik, F.

2017-12-01

The impacts of projected climate change are an ongoing concern for municipalities. Planning at the local level often involves investigations of multiple hazards on decadal timescales. Of particular interest to cities are implications of too much or too little water, snow storms, heat waves, and freeze/thaw cycles on infrastructure, health, energy demands and water quality and availability. A two-year project led by the University of Nebraska - Lincoln has brought together scientist and stakeholder for the purpose of informing municipal planning and climate adaptation for 12 cities in the lower Missouri River Basin states (IA, NE, KS, MO). City-specific climate reports have been developed with municipal input to aid local planning efforts. Surveys to assess municipal climate data usage were distributed to all cities with a population greater than 5,000 in the four-state region. In addition, planning efforts for 18 municipalities have been evaluated for nearly 20 cities in the region to investigate local hazard mitigation, emergency, and comprehensive plans. This presentation will outline key outcomes of the project and discuss decision support tools developed in co-production with city planners.

An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction.

Science.gov (United States)

Yalcin, Semra; Leroux, Shawn James

2018-04-14

Land-cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981-85 and 2001-05 are correlated with land-cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land-cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land-cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated to heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land-cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction. This article is protected

Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav (Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)); Brandefelt, Jenny (Dept. of Mechanics, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Smith, Ben (Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)); Wohlfarth, Barbara (Dept. of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

2009-04-15

This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Smith, Ben; Wohlfarth, Barbara

2009-04-01

This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

Climate change at the coast: from global to local

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watkinson, A.R.

2009-01-01

The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

Global and Local Discourses on Climate Change: A Perspective from the Concept of Embeddedness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jailab Kumar Rai

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change has been becoming a major order of business of all including researchers and academics. This is known that global, national and local organizations, institutions and even the individuals are partaking into the issues with their own perspectives and skills of negotiations. Despite the series of international efforts and attempts, there are also a series of national concerns, efforts and attempts in combating against the effects of global climate change. This paper is an attempt to draw on the overview of contexts and concerns of international communities for combating global climate change and its discursive influence in national policy discourses. Moreover, the paper attempts to assess the local socio-cultural discourses and dynamics of climate change in relation to global and national discourses. Finally the paper highlights on how global and local climate change knowledge networks and epistemic communities either from political processes or the socio-economic fabrics are interrelated and determinant to each other. Keywords: climate change; discourses; embeddeness; dynamics; global; local DOI: 10.3126/dsaj.v4i0.4518 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol.4 2010 pp.143-180

Local authorities in the context of energy and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comodi, Gabriele; Cioccolanti, Luca; Polonara, Fabio; Brandoni, Caterina

2012-01-01

Several measures to boost the energy system towards a low-carbon future can be planned and implemented by local authorities, such as energy-saving initiatives in public buildings and lighting, information campaigns, and renewable energy pilot projects. This work analyzes the public administration's role in energy and climate policies by assessing carbon-lowering measures for properties and services managed directly by local governments in central Italy. Both short- and long-term schemes were considered in the analysis of local authority energy strategies. The MARKAL-TIMES energy model was applied to long-term energy planning to assess the effect of low-carbon initiatives on public-sector energy consumption up to 2030. Two energy scenarios were built, i.e. a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario based on current or soon-to-be-adopted national policies, and an Exemplary Public Scenario (EPS) including some further virtuous local policies suggested by local authorities. Our results show that a 20% primary energy reduction can be achieved with respect to the baseline year by means of short-term energy policies (5-year time span), while a primary energy saving of about 30% can be reached with longer-term energy policies (25-year time span), even after taking the increase in energy demand into account. This work goes to show the part that local governments can play in energy policy and their contribution to the achievement of climate goals. - Highlights: ► Assessment of Local Administration (LA) role in energy and climate policy. ► Analysis of both short-term and long-term carbon lowering measures. ► Use of MARKAL-TIMES model generator for long-term energy analysis. ► 20% primary energy reduction can be reached with short-term energy policies. ► 30% primary energy reduction can be reached with longer-term energy policies.

Climate change and its potential impact on mechanical, hydraulic and chemical conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naslund, J.O.

2009-01-01

The strategy for managing climate related conditions in SKB ' s safety assessments are based on the notion that it is not possible to predict climate in a 100 000-year time perspective. Instead, the approach in the SR-Can safety assessment was to identify and analyse both moderate climate evolutions as well as extremes within which the climate in Scandinavia may vary. To this end, knowledge on general climate variations in Scandinavia was used to identify characteristic climate domains which in turn were used to build a number of selected climate scenarios. The relevant climate domains for the Forsmark and Laxemar sites in the 100 000-year time perspective are; 1) a temperate climate domain, 2) a peri-glacial climate domain, and 3) a glacial climate domain. Also submerged/non-submerged conditions at the sites are of importance. In the SR-Can safety assessment several climate scenarios were investigated, including a reference evolution based on a repetition of reconstructed conditions for last glacial cycle (the Weichselian glaciation and the Holocene interglacial). For this reconstruction, extensive numerical simulations of ice sheets, isostatic changes, and permafrost were conducted. The resulting scenario showed site-specific timing and duration of the three climate domains and submerged periods for the full glacial cycle. This scenario is not a prediction of a future climate evolution. Instead it is one example of a future evolution that in a realistic and consistent way covers all relevant climate related changes that can be expected in a 100 000-year time perspective. Subsequently, this scenario formed the basis for the construction of additional climate scenarios that were used to analyse the effects of more extreme climate evolutions than during the last glacial cycle. Examples of complementary scenarios are a warmer and wetter climate scenario caused by an increased greenhouse effect, and colder scenarios with deeper permafrost or thicker ice sheets than in

SLICEIT and TAHMO Partnerships: Students Local and International Collaboration for Climate and Environmental Monitoring, Technology Development, Education, Adaptation and Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Aishlin, P. S.; Selker, J. S.

2015-12-01

Climate change understanding and impacts vary by community, yet the global nature of climate change requires international collaboration to address education, monitoring, adaptation and mitigation needs. We propose that effective climate change monitoring and education can be accomplished via student-led local and international community partnerships. By empowering students as community leaders in climate-environmental monitoring and education, as well as exploration of adaptation/mitigation needs, well-informed communities and young leadership are developed to support climate change science moving forward. Piloted 2013-2015, the SLICEIT1 program partnered with TAHMO2 to connect student leaders in North America, Europe and Africa. At the international level, schools in the U.S.A and Netherlands were partnered with schools in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda for science and cultural exchange. Each school was equipped with a climate or other environmental sensing system, real-time data publication and curricula for both formal and informal science, technology, engineering and math education and skill development. African counterparts in TAHMO's School-2-School program collect critically important data for enhanced on-the-ground monitoring of weather conditions in data-scarce regions of Africa. In Idaho, student designed, constructed and installed weather stations provide real time data for classroom and community use. Student-designed formal educational activities are disseminated to project partners, increasing hands-on technology education and peer-based learning. At the local level, schools are partnered with a local agency, research institute, nonprofit organization, industry and/or community partner that supplies a climate science expert mentor to SLICEIT program leaders and teachers. Mentor engagement is facilitated and secured by program components that directly benefit the mentor's organization and local community via climate/environment monitoring, student workforce

Adaptation to climate change at local level in Europe: An overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aguiar, F.C.; Bentz, J.; Silva, J.M.N.; Fonseca, A.L.; Swart, R.J.; Santos, F.D.; Penha-Lopes, Gil

2018-01-01

Europe’s climate change vulnerability pushes for initiatives such as the European Adaptation Strategy and the associated Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy. What are the triggers and barriers, for which sectors and for which risks and how is adaptation funded? This paper examines 147 Local

Uncertainties in extreme precipitation under climate change conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...... downscaling methods (SDMs). RCMs provide information on climate change at the regional scale. SDMs are used to bias-correct and downscale the outputs of the RCMs to the local scale of interest in adaptation strategies. In the first part of the study, a multi-model ensemble of RCMs from the European ENSEMBLES...... project was used to quantify the uncertainty in RCM projections over Denmark. Three aspects of the RCMs relevant for the uncertainty quantification were first identified and investigated. These are: the interdependency of the RCMs; the performance in current climate; and the change in the performance...

Study of Climate Change Impact to Local Rainfall Distribution in Lampung Provinces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tumiar Katarina Manik

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Global warming which leads to climate change has potential affect to Indonesia agriculture activities and production. Analyzing rainfall pattern and distribution is important to investigate the impact of global climate change to local climate. This study using rainfall data from 1976-2010 from both lowland and upland area of Lampung Province. The results show that rainfall tends to decrease since the 1990s which related to the years with El Nino event. Monsoonal pattern- having rain and dry season- still excist in Lampung; however, since most rain fell below the average, it could not meet crops water need. Farmers conclude that dry seasons were longer and seasonal pattern has been changed. Global climate change might affect Lampung rainfall distribution through changes on sea surface temperature which could intensify the El Nino effect. Therefore, watching the El Nino phenomena and how global warming affects it, is important in predicting local climate especially the rainfall distribution in order to prevent significant loss in agriculture productivities.

On the local equilibrium condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hessling, H.

1994-11-01

A physical system is in local equilibrium if it cannot be distinguished from a global equilibrium by ''infinitesimally localized measurements''. This should be a natural characterization of local equilibrium, but the problem is to give a precise meaning to the qualitative phrase ''infinitesimally localized measurements''. A solution is suggested in form of a Local Equilibrium Condition (LEC), which can be applied to linear relativistic quantum field theories but not directly to selfinteracting quantum fields. The concept of local temperature resulting from LEC is compared to an old approach to local temperature based on the principle of maximal entropy. It is shown that the principle of maximal entropy does not always lead to physical states if it is applied to relativistic quantum field theories. (orig.)

Local Climate Heterogeneity Shapes Population Genetic Structure of Two Undifferentiated Insular Scutellaria Species.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsiung, Huan-Yi; Huang, Bing-Hong; Chang, Jui-Tse; Huang, Yao-Moan; Huang, Chih-Wei; Liao, Pei-Chun

2017-01-01

Spatial climate heterogeneity may not only affect adaptive gene frequencies but could also indirectly shape the genetic structure of neutral loci by impacting demographic dynamics. In this study, the effect of local climate on population genetic variation was tested in two phylogenetically close Scutellaria species in Taiwan. Scutellaria taipeiensis , which was originally assumed to be an endemic species of Taiwan Island, is shown to be part of the widespread species S. barbata based on the overlapping ranges of genetic variation and climatic niches as well as their morphological similarity. Rejection of the scenario of "early divergence with secondary contact" and the support for multiple origins of populations of S. taipeiensis from S. barbata provide strong evolutionary evidence for a taxonomic revision of the species combination. Further tests of a climatic effect on genetic variation were conducted. Regression analyses show nonlinear correlations among any pair of geographic, climatic, and genetic distances. However, significantly, the bioclimatic variables that represent the precipitation from late summer to early autumn explain roughly 13% of the genetic variation of our sampled populations. These results indicate that spatial differences of precipitation in the typhoon season may influence the regeneration rate and colonization rate of local populations. The periodic typhoon episodes explain the significant but nonlinear influence of climatic variables on population genetic differentiation. Although, the climatic difference does not lead to species divergence, the local climate variability indeed impacts the spatial genetic distribution at the population level.

Presenting a framework to analyze local climate policy and action in small and medium-sized cities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoppe, T.; van der Vegt, Arjen; Stegmaier, Peter

2016-01-01

Academic attention to local climate policy usually focuses on large-sized cities. Given the climate challenges ahead this seems unjustified. Small and medium-sized cities (SMCs) deserve scholarly attention as well. The main question is: What factors influence climate change policy and local

Rapid adjustment of bird community compositions to local climatic variations and its functional consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaüzère, Pierre; Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent

2015-09-01

The local spatial congruence between climate changes and community changes has rarely been studied over large areas. We proposed one of the first comprehensive frameworks tracking local changes in community composition related to climate changes. First, we investigated whether and how 12 years of changes in the local composition of bird communities were related to local climate variations. Then, we tested the consequences of this climate-induced adjustment of communities on Grinnellian (habitat-related) and Eltonian (function-related) homogenization. A standardized protocol monitoring spatial and temporal trends of birds over France from 2001 to 2012 was used. For each plot and each year, we used the spring temperature and the spring precipitations and calculated three indices reflecting the thermal niche, the habitat specialization, and the functional originality of the species within a community. We then used a moving-window approach to estimate the spatial distribution of the temporal trends in each of these indices and their congruency with local climatic variations. Temperature fluctuations and community dynamics were found to be highly variable in space, but their variations were finely congruent. More interestingly, the community adjustment to temperature variations was nonmonotonous. Instead, unexplained fluctuations in community composition were observed up to a certain threshold of climate change intensity, above which a change in community composition was observed. This shift corresponded to a significant decrease in the relative abundance of habitat specialists and functionally original species within communities, regardless of the direction of temperature change. The investigation of variations in climate and community responses appears to be a central step toward a better understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity. Our results suggest a fine-scale and short-term adjustment of community composition to temperature changes. Moreover

Fishers’ local knowledge on impact of climate change and anthropogenic interferences on Hilsa fishery in South Asia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jahan, Israt; Ahsan, Dewan; Farque, Md Hasan

2017-01-01

fishers’ perceptions on effect of climate change and anthropogenic impact on Hilsa fishery at lower Meghna. Fishers’ ecological knowledge indicates that the stock of Hilsa is declining due to several adverse climatic conditions such as increased water temperature, salinity intrusion and low freshwater....... The study also indicates that the major constraints to adopt with the change situation are low level of human capital and restricted access to the formal credit system. Therefore, incorporation of local knowledge in governmental policy formulation and public support to improve human skill are essential...

Climate Change Adaptation in Dutch Local Communities. Risk Perception, Institutional Capacity and the Role of Local Government.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Berg, Maya Marieke

2010-01-01

This report explains the outcomes of the research project Analysing local climate vulnerability and local adaptation strategies which was carried out from 2005 up till 2009 at the Twente Centre for Studies in Technology and Sustainable Development (CSTM), University of Twente. This project is funded

Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

none

2005-07-01

Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

Climate conditions in bedded confinement buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Confinement buildings are utilized for finishing cattle to allow more efficient collection of animal waste and to buffer animals against adverse climatic conditions. Environmental data were obtained from a 29 m wide x 318 m long bedded confinement building with the long axis oriented east to west. T...

Integrating local urban climate modelling and mobile sensor data for personal exposure assessments in the context of urban heat island effect

Science.gov (United States)

Ueberham, Maximilian; Hertel, Daniel; Schlink, Uwe

2017-04-01

Deeper knowledge about urban climate conditions is getting more important in the context of climate change, urban population growth, urban compaction and continued surface sealing. Especially the urban heat island effect (UHI) is one of the most significant human induced alterations of Earth's surface climate. According to this the appearance frequency of heat waves in cities will increase with deep impacts on personal thermal comfort, human health and local residential quality of citizens. UHI can be very heterogenic within a city and research needs to focus more on the neighborhood scale perspective to get further insights about the heat burden of individuals. However, up to now, few is known about local thermal environmental variances and personal exposure loads. To monitor these processes and the impact on individuals, improved monitoring approaches are crucial, complementing data recorded at conventional fixed stations. Therefore we emphasize the importance of micro-meteorological modelling and mobile measurements to shed new light on the nexus of urban human-climate interactions. Contributing to this research we jointly present the approaches of our two PhD-projects. Firstly we illustrate on the basis of an example site, how local thermal conditions in an urban district can be simulated and predicted by a micro-meteorological model. Secondly we highlight the potentials of personal exposure measurements based on an evaluation of mobile micro-sensing devices (MSDs) and analyze and explain differences between model predictions and mobile records. For the examination of local thermal conditions we calculated ENVI-met simulations within the "Bayerischer Bahnhof" quarter in Leipzig (Saxony, Germany; 51°20', 12°22'). To accomplish the maximum temperature contrasts within the diverse built-up structures we chose a hot summer day (25 Aug 2016) under autochthonous weather conditions. From these simulations we analyzed a UHI effect between the model core (urban area

Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

2015-01-01

Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of

Ceramic production during changing environmental/climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Oestreich, Daniela B.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

2015-04-01

Ceramics, with regard to their status as largely everlasting everyday object as well as on the basis of their chronological sensitivity, reflect despite their simplicity the technological level of a culture and therefore also, directly or indirectly, the adaptability of a culture with respect to environmental and/or climatic changes. For that reason the question arises, if it is possible to identify changes in production techniques and raw material sources for ceramic production, as a response to environmental change, e.g. climate change. This paper will present results of a research about Paracas Culture (800 - 200 BC), southern Peru. Through several investigations (e.g. Schittek et al., 2014; Eitel and Mächtle, 2009) it is well known that during Paracas period changes in climate and environmental conditions take place. As a consequence, settlement patterns shifted several times through the various stages of Paracas time. Ceramics from three different sites (Jauranga, Cutamalla, Collanco) and temporal phases of the Paracas period are detailed archaeometric, geochemical and mineralogical characterized, e.g. Raman spectroscopy, XRD, and ICP-MS analyses. The aim of this research is to resolve potential differences in the chemical composition of the Paracas ceramics in space and time and to compare the data with the data sets of pre-Columbian environmental conditions. Thus influences of changing environmental conditions on human societies and their cultural conditions will be discussed. References Eitel, B. and Mächtle, B. 2009. Man and Environment in the eastern Atacama Desert (Southern Peru): Holocene climate changes and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures. In: Reindel, M. & Wagner, G. A. (eds.) New Technologies for Archaeology. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Schittek, K., Mächtle, B., Schäbitz, F., Forbriger, M., Wennrich, V., Reindel, M., and Eitel, B.. Holocene environmental changes in the highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes (14° S) and their

Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

Science.gov (United States)

Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

2011-12-01

Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

Implementation of local climate action plans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Damsø, Tue Noa Jacques; Kjær, Tyge; Christensen, Thomas Budde

2017-01-01

The purpose of this article is to improve understanding of local climate action plans and their implementation and evaluation. It explores how goal definition and the choice of assessment metrics frame goal attainment and influence implementation behaviour. Using the Danish capital of Copenhagen...... a high overall implementation performance, both in terms of changes in energy supply and emission reductions, these metrics are only partially linked. It also shows that inconsistencies between the system scope of the base year emissions and goal attainment, due to the use of offsetting, may lead...

Re-framing climate issue by listening to local actors: elements of propaedeutics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bredif, Herve; Bertrand, Francois; Tabeaud, Martine

2015-01-01

The disappointing outcomes of international negotiations on climate change are frequently associated with inaction and the consequences of a perceived disconnection between science and politics. However, our experiences and empirical findings based on research carried out in France in highly diverse situations and among very different operators invalidate this thesis. By analysing climate change from the standpoint of territories and local adaptation and mitigation strategies, our article contends that the problem stems instead from a still insufficient fit between local and global levels of expertise and action frameworks. Moreover, we also need to analyse climate change from a new angle and recognise its dual nature in material and objective terms as well as in its cultural, symbolic and subjective components

DEVELOPMENT OF AUTOMATED SYSTEM OF CLIMATE CONDITIONS MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Novikova L.V.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The scientific work is devoted to the analysis and development of the automated control system of the climatic conditions of the minites. The analysis of existing automated control systems is carried out, in particular attention is paid to the systems of climate control of greenhouses. The technical means of the control system are determined. As a platform, Arduino®Uno is selected.

IN SITU COMPARISON OF TREE-RING RESPONSES TO CLIMATE AND POPULATION GENETICS: THE NEED TO CONTROL FOR LOCAL CLIMATE AND SITE VARIABLES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johann Mathias Housset

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Tree species responses to climate change will be greatly influenced by their evolutionary potential and their phenotypic plasticity. Investigating tree-rings responses to climate and population genetics at the regional scale is therefore crucial in assessing the tree behaviour to climate change. This study combined in situ dendroclimatology and population genetics over a latitudinal gradient and compared the variations between the two at the intra- and inter-population levels. This approach was applied on the northern marginal populations of Thuja occidentalis (eastern white-cedar in the Canadian boreal forest. We aimed first to assess the radial growth variability (response functional trait within populations across the gradient and to compare it with the genetic diversity (microsatellites. Second, we investigated the variability in the growth response to climate at the regional scale through the radial growth-climate relationships, and tested its correlation with environmental variables and population genetic structure. Model selection based on the Akaike Information Criteria revealed that the growth synchronicity between pairs of trees of a population covariates with both the genetic diversity of this population and the amount of precipitation (inverse correlation, although these variables only explained a small fraction of the observed variance. At the regional scale, variance partitioning and partial redundancy analysis indicate that the growth response to climate was greatly modulated by stand environmental variables, suggesting predominant plastic variations in growth-response to climate. Combining in situ dendroclimatology and population genetics is a promising way to investigate species’ response capacity to climate change in natural stands. We stress the need to control for local climate and site conditions effects on dendroclimatic response to climate to avoid misleading conclusions regarding the associations with genetic variables.

Local farmers' perceptions of climate change and local adaptive strategies: a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, Tibet, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chunyan; Tang, Ya; Luo, Han; Di, Baofeng; Zhang, Liyun

2013-10-01

Climate change affects the productivity of agricultural ecosystems. Farmers cope with climate change based on their perceptions of changing climate patterns. Using a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, we present a new research framework that uses questionnaire and interview methods to compare local farmers' perceptions of climate change with the adaptive farming strategies they adopt. Most farmers in the valley believed that temperatures had increased in the last 30 years but did not note any changes in precipitation. Most farmers also reported sowing and harvesting hulless barley 10-15 days earlier than they were 20 years ago. In addition, farmers observed that plants were flowering and river ice was melting earlier in the season, but they did not perceive changes in plant germination, herbaceous vegetation growth, or other spring seasonal events. Most farmers noticed an extended fall season signified by delays in the freezing of rivers and an extended growing season for grassland vegetation. The study results showed that agricultural practices in the study area are still traditional; that is, local farmers' perceptions of climate change and their strategies to mitigate its impacts were based on indigenous knowledge and their own experiences. Adaptive strategies included adjusting planting and harvesting dates, changing crop species, and improving irrigation infrastructure. However, the farmers' decisions could not be fully attributed to their concerns about climate change. Local farming systems exhibit high adaptability to climate variability. Additionally, off-farm income has reduced the dependence of the farmers on agriculture, and an agricultural subsidy from the Chinese Central Government has mitigated the farmers' vulnerability. Nevertheless, it remains necessary for local farmers to build a system of adaptive climate change strategies that combines traditional experience and indigenous knowledge with scientific research and

Seven Steps in Identifying Local Climate Change Responses for Agriculture in Vietnam

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosma, R.H.; Ngo, An T.; Huynh, Chuong V.; Le, Huong T.; Dang, Nhan K.; Van, Tri P.D.; Halsema, van G.E.

2016-01-01

This study presents a seven-step approach to identify and support local climate change (CC) responses in agriculture. The following seven steps comprise this approach: 1. Analyse past trends on the climatic factors and model the future trends. 2. Simulate the possible impacts of CC on the selected

Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

2010-01-01

Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

Local Tensor Radiation Conditions For Elastic Waves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krenk, S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

2001-01-01

A local boundary condition is formulated, representing radiation of elastic waves from an arbitrary point source. The boundary condition takes the form of a tensor relation between the stress at a point on an arbitrarily oriented section and the velocity and displacement vectors at the point....... The tensor relation generalizes the traditional normal incidence impedance condition by accounting for the angle between wave propagation and the surface normal and by including a generalized stiffness term due to spreading of the waves. The effectiveness of the local tensor radiation condition...

A neural network approach to local downscaling of GCM output for assessing wind power implications of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sailor, D.J.; Hu, T.; Li, X.; Rosen, J.N.

2000-01-01

A methodology is presented for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) output to predict surface wind speeds at scales of interest in the wind power industry under expected future climatic conditions. The approach involves a combination of Neural Network tools and traditional weather forecasting techniques. A Neural Network transfer function is developed to relate local wind speed observations to large scale GCM predictions of atmospheric properties under current climatic conditions. By assuming the invariability of this transfer function under conditions of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, the resulting transfer function is then applied to GCM output for a transient run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. This methodology is applied to three test sites in regions relevant to the wind power industry - one in Texas and two in California. Changes in daily mean wind speeds at each location are presented and discussed with respect to potential implications for wind power generation. (author)

Strong contributions of local background climate to urban heat islands

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Smith, Ronald B.; Oleson, Keith

2014-07-01

The urban heat island (UHI), a common phenomenon in which surface temperatures are higher in urban areas than in surrounding rural areas, represents one of the most significant human-induced changes to Earth's surface climate. Even though they are localized hotspots in the landscape, UHIs have a profound impact on the lives of urban residents, who comprise more than half of the world's population. A barrier to UHI mitigation is the lack of quantitative attribution of the various contributions to UHI intensity (expressed as the temperature difference between urban and rural areas, ΔT). A common perception is that reduction in evaporative cooling in urban land is the dominant driver of ΔT (ref. 5). Here we use a climate model to show that, for cities across North America, geographic variations in daytime ΔT are largely explained by variations in the efficiency with which urban and rural areas convect heat to the lower atmosphere. If urban areas are aerodynamically smoother than surrounding rural areas, urban heat dissipation is relatively less efficient and urban warming occurs (and vice versa). This convection effect depends on the local background climate, increasing daytime ΔT by 3.0 +/- 0.3 kelvin (mean and standard error) in humid climates but decreasing ΔT by 1.5 +/- 0.2 kelvin in dry climates. In the humid eastern United States, there is evidence of higher ΔT in drier years. These relationships imply that UHIs will exacerbate heatwave stress on human health in wet climates where high temperature effects are already compounded by high air humidity and in drier years when positive temperature anomalies may be reinforced by a precipitation-temperature feedback. Our results support albedo management as a viable means of reducing ΔT on large scales.

Climate change perceptions and local adaptation strategies of hazard-prone rural households in Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G.M. Monirul Alam

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Adaptation is a key strategy that can alleviate the severity of climate change impacts on agriculture and food production. Adaptation strategies are unlikely to be effective without an understanding of the farmers’ perceptions of climate change. This paper explores the local knowledge of adaptation in response to the perceived impacts of climate change and climatic hazards using a survey of 380 resource-poor riverbank erosion-prone households in Bangladesh. The results indicate that the respondents’ perceptions of changes in the climate and of extreme climatic events are similar to the observed climate data. Households have recognized the impacts on their livelihood and resources, resulting in an increased sense of vulnerability. To build resilience, households have undertaken a range of farming and non-farming adaptation strategies, which vary significantly among the farming groups. The important adaptation strategies include adopting new crop varieties, changing planting time, homestead gardening, planting trees and migration. Improved access to finance and to information about appropriate strategies appears to be crucial to support adaptation processes locally and thus to enhance the resilience of vulnerable households.

Municipal climate protection. Possibilities for local governments; Kommunaler Klimaschutz. Moeglichkeiten fuer die Kommunen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-01-15

Climate protection is an important aspect of our time. The Federal Government recognized the central role of climate protection. This is reflected in the energy concept, adopted in September 2010. The booklet under consideration published regarding to the amendment of municipal guideline and is a reprint of a previously published paper on local climate protection. Besides conceptual contributions, this brochure provides practical examples of adaptation strategies to climate change, innovative ideas such as the project 'Coaching municipal climate protection' and the presentation of a network of '100 % Renewable Energy Regions'.

Small river plumes off the northeastern coast of the Black Sea under average climatic and flooding discharge conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Osadchiev, Alexander; Korshenko, Evgeniya

2017-06-01

This study focuses on the impact of discharges of small rivers on the delivery and fate of fluvial water and suspended matter at the northeastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers flow into the sea at the study region, and most of them, except for several of the largest, have little annual runoff and affect adjacent coastal waters to a limited extent under average climatic conditions. However, the discharges of these small rivers are characterized by a quick response to precipitation events and can significantly increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the considered area. The delivery and fate of fluvial water and terrigenous sediments at the study region, under average climatic and rain-induced flooding conditions, were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery, and numerical modeling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers under average climatic conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. The intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments forms a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces the intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a northwestern direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of the narrow shelf at the northeastern part of the Black Sea compared to average climatic discharge conditions.

Small river plumes off the northeastern coast of the Black Sea under average climatic and flooding discharge conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Osadchiev

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This study focuses on the impact of discharges of small rivers on the delivery and fate of fluvial water and suspended matter at the northeastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers flow into the sea at the study region, and most of them, except for several of the largest, have little annual runoff and affect adjacent coastal waters to a limited extent under average climatic conditions. However, the discharges of these small rivers are characterized by a quick response to precipitation events and can significantly increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the considered area. The delivery and fate of fluvial water and terrigenous sediments at the study region, under average climatic and rain-induced flooding conditions, were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery, and numerical modeling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers under average climatic conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. The intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments forms a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces the intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a northwestern direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of the narrow shelf at the northeastern part of the Black Sea compared to average climatic discharge conditions.

Understanding How and Why Cities Engage with Climate Policy: An Analysis of Local Climate Action in Spain and Italy.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonia De Gregorio Hurtado

2015-10-01

The results of the analysis show a trend towards an increasing awareness on climate mitigation (highly focused on energy efficiency and the promotion of cleaner energy sources, while adaptation remains an incipient local policy area in both countries. The analysis identifies also the beneficial influence of national and international climate city networks.

Climate reconstruction analysis using coexistence likelihood estimation (CRACLE): a method for the estimation of climate using vegetation.

Science.gov (United States)

Harbert, Robert S; Nixon, Kevin C

2015-08-01

• Plant distributions have long been understood to be correlated with the environmental conditions to which species are adapted. Climate is one of the major components driving species distributions. Therefore, it is expected that the plants coexisting in a community are reflective of the local environment, particularly climate.• Presented here is a method for the estimation of climate from local plant species coexistence data. The method, Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), is a likelihood-based method that employs specimen collection data at a global scale for the inference of species climate tolerance. CRACLE calculates the maximum joint likelihood of coexistence given individual species climate tolerance characterization to estimate the expected climate.• Plant distribution data for more than 4000 species were used to show that this method accurately infers expected climate profiles for 165 sites with diverse climatic conditions. Estimates differ from the WorldClim global climate model by less than 1.5°C on average for mean annual temperature and less than ∼250 mm for mean annual precipitation. This is a significant improvement upon other plant-based climate-proxy methods.• CRACLE validates long hypothesized interactions between climate and local associations of plant species. Furthermore, CRACLE successfully estimates climate that is consistent with the widely used WorldClim model and therefore may be applied to the quantitative estimation of paleoclimate in future studies. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Wood density variations of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. Karst. under contrasting climate conditions in southwestern Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marieke van der Maaten-Theunissen

2013-05-01

Full Text Available We analyzed inter-annual variations in ring width and maximumwood density of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. Karst. at different altitudes in Baden-Württemberg, southwestern Germany, to determine the climate response of these parameters under contrasting climate conditions. In addition, we compared maximum, average and minimum wood density between sites. Bootstrapped correlation coefficients of ring width and maximum wood density with monthly temperature and precipitation, revealed a different climate sensitivity of both parameters. Ring width showed strong correlations with climate variables in the previous year and in the first half of the growingseason. Further, a negative relationship with summer temperature was observed at the low-altitude sites. Maximum wood density correlated best with temperature during the growing season, whereby strongest correlations were found between September temperature and maximum wood density at the high-altitude sites. Observed differences in maximum, average and minimum wood density are suggested to relate to the local climate; with lower temperature and higher water availability having a negative effect on wood density.

Wood density variations of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. Karst. under contrasting climate conditions in southwestern Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marieke van der Maaten-Theunissen

2013-07-01

Full Text Available We analyzed inter-annual variations in ring width and maximum wood density of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. Karst. at different altitudes in Baden-Württemberg, southwestern Germany, to determine the climate response of these parameters under contrasting climate conditions. In addition, we compared maximum, average and minimum wood density between sites. Bootstrapped correlation coefficients of ring width and maximum wood density with monthly temperature and precipitation, revealed a different climate sensitivity of both parameters. Ring width showed strong correlations with climate variables in the previous year and in the first half of the growing season. Further, a negative relationship with summer temperature was observed at the low-altitude sites. Maximum wood density correlated best with temperature during the growing season, whereby strongest correlations were found between September temperature and maximum wood density at the high-altitude sites. Observed differences in maximum, average and minimum wood density are suggested to relate to the local climate; with lower temperatures and higher water availability having a negative effect on wood density. 

The evolving local social contract for managing climate and disaster risk in Vietnam.

Science.gov (United States)

Christoplos, Ian; Ngoan, Le Duc; Sen, Le Thi Hoa; Huong, Nguyen Thi Thanh; Lindegaard, Lily Salloum

2017-07-01

How do disasters shape local government legitimacy in relation to managing climate- and disaster-related risks? This paper looks at how local authorities in Central Vietnam perceive their social contract for risk reduction, including the partial merging of responsibilities for disaster risk management with new plans for and investments in climate change adaptation and broader socioeconomic development. The findings indicate that extreme floods and storms constitute critical junctures that stimulate genuine institutional change. Local officials are proud of their strengthened role in disaster response and they are eager to boost investment in infrastructure. They have struggled to reinforce their legitimacy among their constituents, but given the shifting roles of the state, private sector, and civil society, and the undiminished emphasis on high-risk development models, their responsibilities for responding to emerging climate change scenarios are increasingly nebulous. The past basis for legitimacy is no longer valid, but tomorrow's social contract is not yet defined. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

2012-01-01

In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

Interpopulational Variations in Sexual Chemical Signals of Iberian Wall Lizards May Allow Maximizing Signal Efficiency under Different Climatic Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Martín, José; Ortega, Jesús; López, Pilar

2015-01-01

Sexual signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve to maximize efficacy under a given climatic condition. Thus, chemical secretions of lizards might evolve in the evolutionary time to ensure that signals are perfectly tuned to local humidity and temperature conditions affecting their volatility and therefore their persistence and transmission through the environment. We tested experimentally whether interpopulational altitudinal differences in chemical composition of femoral gland secretions of male Iberian wall lizards (Podarcis hispanicus) have evolved to maximize efficacy of chemical signals in different environmental conditions. Chemical analyses first showed that the characteristics of chemical signals of male lizards differed between two populations inhabiting environments with different climatic conditions in spite of the fact that these two populations are closely related genetically. We also examined experimentally whether the temporal attenuation of the chemical stimuli depended on simulated climatic conditions. Thus, we used tongue-flick essays to test whether female lizards were able to detect male scent marks maintained under different conditions of temperature and humidity by chemosensory cues alone. Chemosensory tests showed that chemical signals of males had a lower efficacy (i.e. detectability and persistence) when temperature and dryness increase, but that these effects were more detrimental for signals of the highest elevation population, which occupies naturally colder and more humid environments. We suggest that the abiotic environment may cause a selective pressure on the form and expression of sexual chemical signals. Therefore, interpopulational differences in chemical profiles of femoral secretions of male P. hispanicus lizards may reflect adaptation to maximize the efficacy of the chemical signal in different climates.

Climate Change Adaptation in Cities: the conditions for success. Feedback from Sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa, and Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paugam, Anne; Henry, Alain

2014-11-01

Until recently, the actions to promote climate change adaptation have mainly taken the form of occasional projects for reducing vulnerabilities (infrastructures for rain drainage, early-warning systems, etc.). But for greater effective action, it is better to both develop real public policies dedicated to this theme and to incorporate this concern into the other sectoral policies and in national strategies. To this end, AFD launched three research projects to grasp a better understanding of the conditions needed for effective adaptation. The three studies look into the institutional, political, and social factors that make for success or failure in adaptation programs on a city scale. The cities studied were selected because they have initiated adaptation procedures that enable feedback not only on how adaptation has been taken into account within local priorities, but also on the implementation of strategies, which represents a relatively new research subject. The study Institutional Pathways for Local Climate Adaptation was produced by South African academics from the University of Cape Town and University of KwaZulu- Natal in 2012-2013. It identifies the political, institutional and social dimensions of effective adaptation at the municipal level, in three South African cities (Durban, Cape Town, Theewaterskloof). The 2014 study Understanding the Assessment and Reduction of Vulnerability to Climate Change in African Cities by the British research institute International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) is more sociological and concerns social vulnerability to climate change in African cities, especially in poor neighborhoods (case studies in Kampala, Accra, and Dakar). Finally, in 2013 the Colombian research institute Fedesarrollo and the Institut de recherche et debat sur la gouvernance (IRG) produced the set of documents Ciudades y cambio climatico en Colombia, which contains an institutional analysis of climate change management in 11

Local climate activities in co-operation between municipality, civil society and science shop

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Michael Søgaard

The Science Shop at DTU co-operates with the local municipal administration and the local branch of an environmental NGO about climate change. The co-operation was initiated by a proposal to the Science Shop from the municipal administration. Since the Science Shop requests civil society...... involvement in projects it was proposed to involve the local branch of the environmental NGO. The starting point was topics developed by the administration and the NGO together and announced to students as part of the Science Shop project supply. The focus is climate impact of local activities and strategies...... are initiated and co-ordinated by a group with members from municipal administration, the local NGO and the Science Shop. All projects have involved student projects, but most projects have also contributed to ongoing research activities. The projects up till now have focused on the municipal food supply...

Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Kjellstrom, Tord

2016-03-01

One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries. © 2015 APJPH.

Barriers in Local Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Nepal

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Dhungana, N.; Chiranjeewee, Khadka; Bhatta, B. P.; Regmi, S.

2017-01-01

Roč. 62, jun (2017), s. 20-24 ISSN 2224-3240 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Local Adaptation Plan for Action Framework * Barriers * Climate Change Adaptation * Village Development Committees Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) http://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JLPG/article/view/37535

Using Local Climate Science to Educate "Key Influentials" and their Communities in the San Diego Region

Science.gov (United States)

Boudrias, M. A.; Estrada, M.; Anders, S.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Yin, Z.; Schultz, P.; Young, E.

2012-12-01

The San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership has formed an innovative and collaborative team whose mission is to implement a research-based climate science education and communications program to increase knowledge about climate science among highly-influential leaders and their communities and foster informed decision making based on climate science and impacts. The team includes climate scientists, behavioral psychologists, formal and informal educators and communication specialists. The Partnership's strategic plan has three major goals: (1) raise public understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change; (2) identify the most effective educational methods to educate non-traditional audiences (Key Influentials) about the causes and consequences of climate change; and (3) develop and implement a replicable model for regional climate change education. To implement this strategic plan, we have anchored our project on three major pillars: (1) Local climate science (causes, impacts and long-term consequences); (2) theoretical, research-based evaluation framework (TIMSI); and (3) Key! Influentials (KI) as primary audience for messages (working w! ith and through them). During CCEP-I, the Partnership formed and convened an advisory board of Key Influentials, completed interviews with a sample of Key Influentials, conducted a public opinion survey, developed a website (www.sandiego.edu/climate) , compiled inventories on literature of climate science education resources and climate change community groups and local activities, hosted stakeholder forums, and completed the first phase of on an experiment to test the effects of different messengers delivering the same local climate change message via video. Results of 38 KI Interviews provided evidence of local climate knowledge, strong concern about climate change, and deeply held values related to climate change education and regional leadership. The most intriguing result was that while 90% of Key

Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: Homeowners and wildfire risk

Science.gov (United States)

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ

2015-01-01

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental...

Climate risks to agriculture in Amazon arc-of-deforestation create incentives to conserve local forests

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, M. H.; Fleck, L. C.; Cohn, A.; Abrahão, G. M.; Brando, P. M.; Coe, M. T.; Fu, R.; Lawrence, D.; Pires, G. F.; Pousa, R.; Soares, B. Filh

2017-12-01

Intensification of agriculture is a necessary condition for sustainably meeting global food demands without increasing deforestation. In southern Amazonia, a region that produces 7% of the world's soybeans, double cropping has become the preferred system for the intensification of agriculture, which is essentially rainfed. Rainy season is shortening in the region, due to climate change, and is predicted to become shorter in the future. The climate risks are worsened by the region's land use change. This increases the climate risk and even threat the intensive double-cropping agriculture that is currently practiced in that region, with potential perverse consequences to everyone. Repeated or widespread climate-driven crop failure could prompt a return to the single cropping system or even cropland abandonment. A shift to single cropping could decrease the agriculture output in this critical region, push up global food prices and heighten incentives to convert regional ecosystems to agricultural land. Further agricultural expansion into ecosystems would increase climate change. The more forest lost, the higher the climate risk will be, due to climate feedbacks from deforestation itself, triggering a spiraling decline of the rainforests and rainfall over southern Amazonia and other critical agricultural regions known to depend on the forests of Amazonia for rainfall. We show that there are economic and social reasons to preserve the forests, and it is in the best interest of the agribusiness, local governments and people, to conserve the remaining forests. The adaptation and mitigation needs, and policies to reconcile production and protection while mitigating supply chains risks are also discussed.

Urban local climate zone mapping and apply in urban environment study

Science.gov (United States)

He, Shan; Zhang, Yunwei; Zhang, Jili

2018-02-01

The city’s local climate zone (LCZ) was considered to be a powerful tool for urban climate mapping. But for cities in different countries and regions, the LCZ division methods and results were different, thus targeted researches should be performed. In the current work, a LCZ mapping method was proposed, which is convenient in operation and city planning oriented. In this proposed method, the local climate zoning types were adjusted firstly, according to the characteristics of Chinese city, that more tall buildings and high density. Then the classification method proposed by WUDAPT based on remote sensing data was performed on Xi’an city, as an example, for LCZ mapping. Combined with the city road network, a reasonable expression of the dividing results was provided, to adapt to the characteristics in city planning that land parcels are usually recognized as the basic unit. The proposed method was validated against the actual land use and construction data that surveyed in Xi’an, with results indicating the feasibility of the proposed method for urban LCZ mapping in China.

A framework to assess the impacts of Climate Change for different hazards at local and regional scale through probabilistic multi-model approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Mercogliano, P.; Reder, A.; Rianna, G.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather events (EWEs) are projected to be more frequent and severe across the globe because of global warming. This poses challenging problems for critical infrastructures (CIs) which can be dramatically affected by EWEs needing adaptation countermeasures againts changing climate conditions. In this work, we present the main results achieved in the framework of the FP7-European project INTACT aimed at analyzing the resilience of CIs against shocks and stresses due to the climate changes. To identify variations in the hazard induced by climate change, appropriate Extreme Weather Indicators (EWIs) are defined for several case studies and different approaches are analyzed to obtain local climate projections. The different approaches, with increasing refinement depending on local information available and methodologies selected, are investigated considering raw versus bias corrected data and weighted or equiprobable ensemble mean projections given by the regional climate models within the Euro-CORDEX program. Specifically, this work focuses on two case studies selected from the five proposed within the INTACT project and for which local station data are available: • rainfall-induced landslide affecting Campania region (Southern Italy) with a special view on the Nocera municipality; • storms and heavy rainfall/winds in port of Rotterdam (Netherlands). In general, our results show a small sensitivity to the weighting approach and a large sensitivity to bias-correction in the future projections. For landslides in Campania region, the Euro-CORDEX simulations projected a generalized worsening of the safety conditions depending on the scenario (RCP4.5/8.5) and period (2011-2040/2041-2070/2071-2100) considered. For the port of Rotterdam, the Euro-CORDEX simulations projected an increment in the intense events of daily and weekly precipitation, also in this case depending on the scenario and period considered. Considering framework, methodologies and results, the

Climate change perceptions and local adaptation strategies of hazard-prone rural households in Bangladesh

OpenAIRE

G.M. Monirul Alam; Khorshed Alam; Shahbaz Mushtaq

2017-01-01

Adaptation is a key strategy that can alleviate the severity of climate change impacts on agriculture and food production. Adaptation strategies are unlikely to be effective without an understanding of the farmers’ perceptions of climate change. This paper explores the local knowledge of adaptation in response to the perceived impacts of climate change and climatic hazards using a survey of 380 resource-poor riverbank erosion-prone households in Bangladesh. The results indicate that the respo...

Governing Carbon Mitigation and Climate Change within Local Councils: A Case Study of Adelaide, South Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heather Zeppel

2012-08-01

Full Text Available There is growing concern about climate change impacts on local government areas. In Australia, the federal carbon tax (from 1 July 2012 will also increase costs for local councils. This paper evaluates what carbon mitigation (i.e. energy, water, and waste management actions have been implemented by metropolitan Adelaide councils (n=14 and why (or why not. A survey of environmental officers profiled carbon mitigation actions, emissions auditing, and motives for emissions reduction by Adelaide councils. The main reasons for adopting carbon actions were a climate change plan, climate leadership, and cost savings. Internal council governance of climate change actions was also evaluated. A climate governance framework based on adaptive management, communication, and reflective practice (Nursey-Bray 2010 was applied to assess climate mitigation by Adelaide councils.

Small river plumes near the north-eastern coast of the Black Sea under climatic mean and flooding discharge conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Osadchiev, Alexander; Korshenko, Evgeniya

2017-04-01

The study is focused on the impact of discharge from small rivers on propagation and final location of fluvial waters and suspended matter at the north-eastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers inflow into the sea at the studied region and most of them, except the several largest of them, have small annual runoff and limitedly affect adjacent coastal waters under climatic mean conditions. However, discharges of these small rivers are characterized by quick response to precipitation events and can dramatically increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the area under consideration. Propagation and final location of fluvial waters and terrigenous sediments at the studied region under climatic mean and rain-induced flooding conditions were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery and numerical modelling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers during climatic mean conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. Intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments form a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a north-western direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of narrow shelf at the north-eastern part of the Black Sea as compared to climatic mean discharge conditions.

Climate Local Information over the Mediterranean to Respond User Needs

Science.gov (United States)

Ruti, P.

2012-12-01

CLIM-RUN aims at developing a protocol for applying new methodologies and improved modeling and downscaling tools for the provision of adequate climate information at regional to local scale that is relevant to and usable by different sectors of society (policymakers, industry, cities, etc.). Differently from current approaches, CLIM-RUN will develop a bottom-up protocol directly involving stakeholders early in the process with the aim of identifying well defined needs at the regional to local scale. The improved modeling and downscaling tools will then be used to optimally respond to these specific needs. The protocol is assessed by application to relevant case studies involving interdependent sectors, primarily tourism and energy, and natural hazards (wild fires) for representative target areas (mountainous regions, coastal areas, islands). The region of interest for the project is the Greater Mediterranean area, which is particularly important for two reasons. First, the Mediterranean is a recognized climate change hot-spot, i.e. a region particularly sensitive and vulnerable to global warming. Second, while a number of countries in Central and Northern Europe have already in place well developed climate service networks (e.g. the United Kingdom and Germany), no such network is available in the Mediterranean. CLIM-RUN is thus also intended to provide the seed for the formation of a Mediterranean basin-side climate service network which would eventually converge into a pan-European network. The general time horizon of interest for the project is the future period 2010-2050, a time horizon that encompasses the contributions of both inter-decadal variability and greenhouse-forced climate change. In particular, this time horizon places CLIM-RUN within the context of a new emerging area of research, that of decadal prediction, which will provide a strong potential for novel research.

Can Perceptions of Environmental and Climate Change in Island Communities Assist in Adaptation Planning Locally?

Science.gov (United States)

Aswani, Shankar; Vaccaro, Ismael; Abernethy, Kirsten; Albert, Simon; de Pablo, Javier Fernández-López

2015-12-01

Local perceptions of environmental and climate change, as well as associated adaptations made by local populations, are fundamental for designing comprehensive and inclusive mitigation and adaptation plans both locally and nationally. In this paper, we analyze people's perceptions of environmental and climate-related transformations in communities across the Western Solomon Islands through ethnographic and geospatial methods. Specifically, we documented people's observed changes over the past decades across various environmental domains, and for each change, we asked respondents to identify the causes, timing, and people's adaptive responses. We also incorporated this information into a geographical information system database to produce broad-scale base maps of local perceptions of environmental change. Results suggest that people detected changes that tended to be acute (e.g., water clarity, logging intensity, and agricultural diseases). We inferred from these results that most local observations of and adaptations to change were related to parts of environment/ecosystem that are most directly or indirectly related to harvesting strategies. On the other hand, people were less aware of slower insidious/chronic changes identified by scientific studies. For the Solomon Islands and similar contexts in the insular tropics, a broader anticipatory adaptation planning strategy to climate change should include a mix of local scientific studies and local observations of ongoing ecological changes.

Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

2016-02-01

This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

Science.gov (United States)

Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

2016-04-01

A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

Measurement of heat stress conditions at cow level and comparison to climate conditions at stationary locations inside a dairy barn.

Science.gov (United States)

Schüller, Laura K; Heuwieser, Wolfgang

2016-08-01

The objectives of this study were to examine heat stress conditions at cow level and to investigate the relationship to the climate conditions at 5 different stationary locations inside a dairy barn. In addition, we compared the climate conditions at cow level between primiparous and multiparous cows for a period of 1 week after regrouping. The temperature-humidity index (THI) differed significantly between all stationary loggers. The lowest THI was measured at the window logger in the experimental stall and the highest THI was measured at the central logger in the experimental stall. The THI at the mobile cow loggers was 2·33 THI points higher than at the stationary loggers. Furthermore, the mean daily THI was higher at the mobile cow loggers than at the stationary loggers on all experimental days. The THI in the experimental pen was 0·44 THI points lower when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. The THI measured at the mobile cow loggers was 1·63 THI points higher when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. However, there was no significant difference for all climate variables between primiparous and multiparous cows. These results indicate, there is a wide range of climate conditions inside a dairy barn and especially areas with a great distance to a fresh air supply have an increased risk for the occurrence of heat stress conditions. Furthermore, the heat stress conditions are even higher at cow level and cows not only influence their climatic environment, but also generate microclimates within different locations inside the barn. Therefore climate conditions should be obtained at cow level to evaluate the heat stress conditions that dairy cows are actually exposed to.

Environmental impacts of barley cultivation under current and future climatic conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dijkman, Teunis Johannes; Birkved, Morten; Saxe, Henrik

2017-01-01

for the increased impacts. This finding was confirmed by the sensitivity analysis. Because this study focused solely on the impacts of climate change, technological improvements and political measures to reduce impacts in the 2050 scenario are not taken into account. Options to mitigate the environmental impacts......The purpose of this work is to compare the environmental impacts of spring barley cultivation in Denmark under current (year 2010) and future (year 2050) climatic conditions. Therefore, a Life Cycle Assessment was carried out for the production of 1 kg of spring barley in Denmark, at farm gate....... Both under 2010 and 2050 climatic conditions, four subscenarios were modelled, based on a combination of two soil types and two climates. Included in the assessment were seed production, soil preparation, fertilization, pesticide application, and harvest. When processes in the life cycle resulted in co...

From global framing to local action : translation of climate change impacts in Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ogunseitan, O.A. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)

2000-06-01

There is considerable controversy regarding policy and climate change mitigation in Africa. Its resolution will require integrating local knowledge and values into climate impact assessments. Africa's vulnerability to climate change can be traced to the frequency of socio-ecological devastation that comes from major climate variations on the continent. The incidence of famines, homelessness and disease epidemics that require international assistance are reflections of weak policies and institution action frames used to cope with climate and weather related emergencies. However, the valuation of climate change impacts has a subjective dimension that can be gained only through indigenous experience and an understanding of values associated with life-saving intervention programs. A recent study showed that discount rates applied to future life-saving programs by Africans are very different from the rates applied in developed countries, and that the difference should be reflected in national development programs and transnational initiatives for capacity building. The study suggests that if the boundary institutions responsible for public health security have not been too effective in resolving the policy controversy surrounding Africa's participation in climate change assessments, it is due partly to the limitations imposed by cross-scale issues in framing. It was concluded that efforts to reduce Africa's dependence on global emergency health response systems will necessitate the development of autonomous capacity to adapt to natural disasters. Appropriate frame reflection is needed at the local level. 56 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig.

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

2014-05-01

Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

2002-01-01

The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

NOAA Climate Information and Tools for Decision Support Services

Science.gov (United States)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Higgins, W.; Strager, C.; Horsfall, F. M.

2013-12-01

NOAA is an active participant of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) contributing data, information, analytical capabilities, forecasts, and decision support services to the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). These contributions emerge from NOAA's own climate services, which have evolved to respond to the urgent and growing need for reliable, trusted, transparent, and timely climate information across all sectors of the U.S. economy. Climate services not only enhance development opportunities in many regions, but also reduce vulnerability to climate change around the world. The NOAA contribution lies within the NOAA Climate Goal mission, which is focusing its efforts on four key climate priority areas: water, extremes, coastal inundation, and marine ecosystems. In order to make progress in these areas, NOAA is exploiting its fundamental capabilities, including foundational research to advance understanding of the Earth system, observations to preserve and build the climate data record and monitor changes in climate conditions, climate models to predict and project future climate across space and time scales, and the development and delivery of decision support services focused on risk management. NOAA's National Weather Services (NWS) is moving toward provision of Decision Support Services (DSS) as a part of the Roadmap on the way to achieving a Weather Ready National (WRN) strategy. Both short-term and long-term weather, water, and climate information are critical for DSS and emergency services and have been integrated into NWS in the form of pilot projects run by National and Regional Operations Centers (NOC and ROCs respectively) as well as several local offices. Local offices with pilot projects have been focusing their efforts on provision of timely and actionable guidance for specific tasks such as DSS in support of Coastal Environments and Integrated Environmental Studies. Climate information in DSS extends the concept of climate services to

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

The relative role of dispersal and local interactions for alpine plant community diversity under simulated climate warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klanderud, K.; Totland, Oe. [Norwegian Univ. of Life Science, Dept. of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Aas (Norway)

2007-08-15

Most studies on factors determining diversity are conducted in temperate or warm regions, whereas studies in climatically harsh and low productivity areas, such as alpine regions, are rare. We examined the relative roles of seed availability and different biotic and abiotic factors for the diversity of an alpine plant community in southern Norway. Furthermore, because climate warming is predicted to be an important driver of alpine species diversity, we assessed how the relative impacts of dispersal and local interactions on diversity might change under experimental warming (open top chambers, OTCs). Addition of seeds from 27 regional species increased community diversity. The establishment of the species was negatively related both to the diversity of the existing system and the cover of the abundant dwarf shrub Dryas octopetala. These results show that both species dispersal limitation and local biotic interactions are important factors for alpine plant community diversity. Despite relatively harsh environmental conditions and low productivity, competition from the resident vegetation appeared to have a greater role for species establishment and diversity than facilitation and experimental warming. Higher temperature appeared to increase the negative relationship between resident species diversity and species establishment. This may suggest that climate warming can increase the role of interspecific competition for alpine plant community structure, and thus alter the long-term effects of biotic interactions on diversity. (au)

Improving PAQ and comfort conditions in Spanish office buildings with passive climate control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Orosa, Jose A.; Baalina, A. [Departamento de Energia y P.M. Escuela Tecnica Superior de N. y M, Universidade da Coruna, Paseo de Ronda 51, P.C.:15011 A Coruna (Spain)

2009-03-15

Some researchers have demonstrated that passive moisture transfer between indoor air and hygroscopic structures has the potential to moderate variations of indoor air relative humidity and, thus, to improve comfort and PAQ [Simonson CJ, Salonvaara M, Ojalen T. The effect of structures on indoor humidity-possibility to improve comfort and perceived air quality. Indoor Air 2002; 12: 243-51; Simonson CJ, Salonvaara M, Ojalen T. Improving indoor climate and comfort with wooden structures. Espoo 2001. Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT Publications 431.200p+app 91p]. The main objective of this study is to show the internal wall coating effect on indoor air conditions and, as a consequence of this, in comfort conditions and PAQ. In a previous paper [Orosa JA, Baalina A. Passive climate control in Spanish office buildings for long periods of time. Building and Environment 2008], we analysed the influence of permeable and impermeable materials on indoor air conditions, during the unoccupied period, in 25 office buildings in different seasons. Results obtained lead us to conclude that real coverings such as permeable, semi-permeable and impermeable types, present different behavioural patterns in indoor air conditions. Furthermore, we concluded that an absorbent structure will moderate relative humidity indoors. In this paper, we study this indoor relative humidity effect on local thermal discomfort, due to decreased respiratory cooling, and indoor ambience acceptability for the early hours of morning applying PD and Acc models [Toftum J, Jorgensen AS, Fanger PO. Upper limits for indoor air humidity to avoid uncomfortably humid skin. Energy and buildings 1998; 28: 1-13; Toftum J, Jorgensen AS, Fanger PO. Upper limits of air humidity for preventing warm respiratory discomfort. Energy and Buildings 1998; 28: 15-23] such as that proposed by Simonson et al. [The effect of structures on indoor humidity-possibility to improve comfort and perceived air quality. Indoor Air

Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Determination of optimal irrigation rates of agricultural crops under consideration of soil properties and climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irakli Kruashvili

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In conditions of increasing water shortage, further development of irrigated agriculture production is impossible without improving the methods of cultivation of agricultural crops, primarily irrigation technology. In 2015 the experiment have been conducted on the territory of irrigation farming area of village Tamarisi (Marneuli Municipality, according to which comprehensive study of local climatic and soil conditions were conducted. Received data were used for computation crop water requirements for tomato and melon under the different irrigation treatments. Obtained results have shown the possibility of water use efficiency and obtaining sufficiently high yields of crops that participated in the experiment that became possible in a case of usage of drip irrigation technology in combination with plastic mulch.

Conceptualising national climate change policy through the local lenses: The case of Capricorn District Municipality, Limpopo, South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Murambadoro, Miriam D

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This poster presents the preliminary findings of a study which seeks to understand the learning systems used for climate change adaptation at local government level. It looks at how the local government officials conceptualise the National Climate...

Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.

2012-04-01

Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.

Beyond Knowledge: Service Learning and Local Climate Change Research Engagement Activities that Foster Action and Behavior Change

Science.gov (United States)

Low, R.; Mandryk, C.; Gosselin, D. C.; Haney, C.

2013-12-01

Climate change engagement requires individuals to understand an abstract and complex topic and realize the profound implications of climate change for their families and local community. In recent years federal agencies have spent millions of dollars on climate change education to prepare a nation for a warming future. The majority of these education efforts are based on a knowledge deficit model. In this view 'educate' means 'provide information'. However cognitive and behavioral research and current action demonstrate that information alone is not enough; knowledge does not necessarily lead to action. Educators are speaking to deaf ears if we rely on passive and abstract information transfer and neglect more persuasive and affective approaches to communication. When climate change is presented abstractly as something that happens in the future to people, environments, animals somewhere else it is easy to discount. People employ two separate systems for information processing: analytical-rational and intuitive-experiential Authentic local research experiences that engage both analytical and experiential information processing systems not only help individuals understand the abstraction of climate change in a concrete and personally experienced manner, but are more likely to influence behavior. Two on-line, graduate-level courses offered within University of Nebraska's Masters of Applied Science program provide opportunities for participants to engage in authentic inquiry based studies climate change's local impacts, and work with K-12 learners in promoting the scientific awareness and behavioral changes that mitigate against the negative impacts of a changing climate. The courses are specifically designed to improve middle and high school (grades 6-12) teachers' content knowledge of climate processes and climate change science in the context of their own community. Both courses provide data-rich, investigative science experiences in a distributed digital

Local Climate Zones Classification to Urban Planning in the Mega City of São Paulo - SP, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Gonçalves Santos, Rafael; Saraiva Lopes, António Manuel; Prata-Shimomura, Alessandra

2017-04-01

Local Climate Zones Classification to Urban Planning in the Mega city of São Paulo - SP, Brazil Tropical megacities have presented a strong trend in growing urban. Urban management in megacities has as one of the biggest challenges is the lack of integration of urban climate and urban planning to promote ecologically smart cities. Local Climatic Zones (LCZs) are considered as important and recognized tool for urban climate management. Classes are local in scale, climatic in nature, and zonal in representation. They can be understood as regions of uniform surface cover, structure, material and human activity that have to a unique climate response. As an initial tool to promote urban climate planning, LCZs represent a simple composition of different land coverages (buildings, vegetation, soils, rock, roads and water). LCZs are divided in 17 classes, they are based on surface cover (built fraction, soil moisture, albedo), surface structure (sky view factor, roughness height) and cultural activity (anthropogenic heat flux). The aim of this study is the application of the LCZs classification system in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil. Located at a latitude of 23° 21' and longitude 46° 44' near to the Tropic of Capricorn, presenting humid subtropical climate (Cfa) with diversified topographies. The megacity of São Paulo currently concentrates 11.890.000 inhabitants is characterized by large urban conglomerates with impermeable surfaces and high verticalization, having as result high urban heat island intensity. The result indicates predominance in urban zones of Compact low-rise, Compact Mid-rise, Compact High-rise and Open Low-rise. Non-urban regions are mainly covered by dense vegetation and water. The LCZs classification system promotes significant advantages for climate sensitive urban planning in the megacity of São Paulo. They offers new perspectives to the management of temperature and urban ventilation and allows the formulation of urban planning

Climate - saved locally

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

Since 1990, more than 350 towns and communities from six European contries have joined the ''Climate Groups of European towns with the indigenous peoples of the rainforest to support the Earth's atmosphere''. The given goals are the halving of CO 2 emissions by the year 2000, the reduction of greenhouse gases and stopping use of tropical wood. The text shows how far the communes have gone in their own obligations for the protection of the world climate in the areas of energy, transport and town development. The work and organisation of the Indian group- partners is also portrayed. (orig.) [de

Role of community based local institution for climate change adaptation in the Teesta riverine area of Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md. Rezaul Karim

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change adaptation is one of the most crucial issues in developing countries like Bangladesh. The main objective was to understand the linkage of participation with Community Based Adaptation (CBA to climate change. Institutional framework following different types of conceptual theories (collective action, group, game and social learning theory was utilized to analyze the participatory process in local community level Village Disaster Mangement Committee (VDMC that works in collaboration with local government. Field level data was collected through interview and group discussion during 25 April to 30 May 2015 in the Teesta riverine area of northern Bangladesh. Results showed that flood and drought were the major climate change impacts in the study area, and various participatory tools were used for risk assessment and undertaking action plans to overcome the climate change challenges by the group VDMC. Participation in VDMC generated both relational and technical outcomes. The relational outcomes are the informal institutional changes through which local community adopt technological adaptation measures. Although, limitations like bargaining problem, free riding or conflict were found in collective decision making, but the initiation of local governance like VDMC has brought various institutional change in the communities in terms of adaptation practices. More than 80% VDMC and around 40–55% non-VDMC household respondents agreed that overall community based adaptation process was successful in the previous year. They believed that some innovative practices had been brought in the community through VDMC action for climate change adaptation. No doubt that the CBA has achieved good progress to achieve the government Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM strategy of climate change adaptation. But, there is still lack of coordination among local government, NGOs and civil partners in working together. Research related to socio

Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-03-01

The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann-Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann-Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response.

Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

2015-01-01

The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

2018-01-01

Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

Local governments and climate change: sustainable energy planning and implementation in small and medium sized communities

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Van Staden, Maryke; Musco, Francesco

2010-01-01

The focus of 'Local governments and climate change' is on how small and medium-sized communities in Europe are effectively responding to climate change, with a particular focus on different approaches...

Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Adeola, Abiodun M; Botai, Joel O; Rautenbach, Hannes; Adisa, Omolola M; Ncongwane, Katlego P; Botai, Christina M; Adebayo-Ojo, Temitope C

2017-11-08

The north-eastern parts of South Africa, comprising the Limpopo Province, have recorded a sudden rise in the rate of malaria morbidity and mortality in the 2017 malaria season. The epidemiological profiles of malaria, as well as other vector-borne diseases, are strongly associated with climate and environmental conditions. A retrospective understanding of the relationship between climate and the occurrence of malaria may provide insight into the dynamics of the disease's transmission and its persistence in the north-eastern region. In this paper, the association between climatic variables and the occurrence of malaria was studied in the Mutale local municipality in South Africa over a period of 19-year. Time series analysis was conducted on monthly climatic variables and monthly malaria cases in the Mutale municipality for the period of 1998-2017. Spearman correlation analysis was performed and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed. Microsoft Excel was used for data cleaning, and statistical software R was used to analyse the data and develop the model. Results show that both climatic variables' and malaria cases' time series exhibited seasonal patterns, showing a number of peaks and fluctuations. Spearman correlation analysis indicated that monthly total rainfall, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean average temperature, and mean relative humidity were significantly and positively correlated with monthly malaria cases in the study area. Regression analysis showed that monthly total rainfall and monthly mean minimum temperature ( R ² = 0.65), at a two-month lagged effect, are the most significant climatic predictors of malaria transmission in Mutale local municipality. A SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model fitted with only malaria cases has a prediction performance of about 51%, and the SARIMAX (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model with climatic variables as exogenous factors has a prediction performance of about 72% in

Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates.

Science.gov (United States)

Falagas, Matthew E; Bliziotis, Ioannis A; Kosmidis, John; Daikos, George K

2010-12-01

About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Regeneration potential of Taxodium distichum swamps and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Middleton, B.A.

2009-01-01

Seed bank densities respond to factors across local to landscape scales, and therefore, knowledge of these responses may be necessary in forecasting the effects of climate change on the regeneration of species. This study relates the seed bank densities of species of Taxodium distichum swamps to local water regime and regional climate factors at five latitudes across the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley from southern Illinois to Louisiana. In an outdoor nursery setting, the seed banks of twenty-five swamps were exposed to non-flooded (freely drained) or flooded treatments, and the number and species of seeds germinating were recorded from each swamp during one growing season. Based on ANOVA analysis, the majority of dominant species had a higher rate of germination in non-flooded versus flooded treatments. Similarly, an NMS comparison, which considered the local water regime and regional climate of the swamps, found that the species of seeds germinating, almost completely shifted under non-flooded versus flooded treatments. For example, in wetter northern swamps, seeds of Taxodium distichum germinated in non-flooded conditions, but did not germinate from the same seed banks in flooded conditions. In wetter southern swamps, seeds of Eleocharis cellulosa germinated in flooded conditions, but did not germinate in non-flooded conditions. The strong relationship of seed germination and density relationships with local water regime and regional climate variables suggests that the forecasting of climate change effects on swamps and other wetlands needs to consider a variety of interrelated variables to make adequate projections of the regeneration responses of species to climate change. Because regeneration is an important aspect of species maintenance and restoration, climate drying could influence the species distribution of these swamps in the future. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Climate perceptions of local communities validated through scientific signals in Sikkim Himalaya, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, R K; Shrestha, D G

2016-10-01

Sikkim, a tiny Himalayan state situated in the north-eastern region of India, records limited research on the climate change. Understanding the changes in climate based on the perceptions of local communities can provide important insights for the preparedness against the unprecedented consequences of climate change. A total of 228 households in 12 different villages of Sikkim, India, were interviewed using eight climate change indicators. The results from the public opinions showed a significant increase in temperature compared to a decade earlier, winters are getting warmer, water springs are drying up, change in concept of spring-water recharge (locally known as Mul Phutnu), changes in spring season, low crop yields, incidences of mosquitoes during winter, and decrease in rainfall in last 10 years. In addition, study also showed significant positive correlations of increase in temperature with other climate change indicators viz. spring-water recharge concept (R (2) = 0.893), warmer winter (R (2) = 0.839), drying up of water springs (R (2) = 0.76), changes in spring season (R (2) = 0.68), low crop yields (R (2) = 0.68), decrease in rainfall (R (2) = 0.63), and incidences of mosquitoes in winter (R (2) = 0.50). The air temperature for two meteorological stations of Sikkim indicated statistically significant increasing trend in mean minimum temperature and mean minimum winter temperature (DJF). The observed climate change is consistent with the people perceptions. This information can help in planning specific adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change by framing village-level action plan.

Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Brooke E. Penaluna; Jason B. Dunham; Steve F. Railsback; Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Robert E. Bilby; Mohammad Safeeq; Arne E. Skaugset; James P. Meador

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of...

Climate change and local pollution effects. An integrated approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aaheim, H.A.; Kristin, A.; Seip, H.M.

1999-01-01

Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO 2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed. 72 refs

Increasing bioenergy production on arable land: Does the regional and local climate respond? Germany as a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Tölle, Merja H.; Gutjahr, Oliver; Busch, Gerald; Thiele, Jan C.

2014-03-01

The extent and magnitude of land cover change effect on local and regional future climate during the vegetation period due to different forms of bioenergy plants are quantified for extreme temperatures and energy fluxes. Furthermore, we vary the spatial extent of plant allocation on arable land and simulate alternative availability of transpiration water to mimic both rainfed agriculture and irrigation. We perform climate simulations down to 1 km scale for 1970-1975 C20 and 2070-2075 A1B over Germany with Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling in Climate Mode. Here an impact analysis indicates a strong local influence due to land cover changes. The regional effect is decreased by two thirds of the magnitude of the local-scale impact. The changes are largest locally for irrigated poplar with decreasing maximum temperatures by 1°C in summer months and increasing specific humidity by 0.15 g kg-1. The increased evapotranspiration may result in more precipitation. The increase of surface radiative fluxes Rnet due to changes in latent and sensible heat is estimated by 5 W m-2locally. Moreover, increases in the surface latent heat flux cause strong local evaporative cooling in the summer months, whereas the associated regional cooling effect is pronounced by increases in cloud cover. The changes on a regional scale are marginal and not significant. Increasing bioenergy production on arable land may result in local temperature changes but not in substantial regional climate change in Germany. We show the effect of agricultural practices during climate transitions in spring and fall.

Extension of the PMV model to non-air-conditioned building in warm climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

2002-01-01

The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

The future bioclimatic conditions in Austria under the aspect of climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Rudel, E.; Matzarakis, A.; Neumke, R.; Endler, Ch,; Koch, E.

2009-09-01

The IPCC quantifies Heat Stress as a combination of air temperature and air humidity. In order to describe the future bioclimatic conditions in a human-biometeorological manner the analysis a modern thermal index has been chosen. The PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) allows the assessment of the effect of the thermal environment based on the energy balance of humans including thermo-physiological information. The data for the calculation of the PET came from climate models. The required data are for the climatic parameters air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover as the necessary inputs for Physiologically Equivalents Temperature. Regarding future climatic changes PET calculations for the time slices 1961 and 1990 and also 2070 and 2100 have been run in 0.5 ° resolution. By the use of statistical regression for the 0.5 ° resolution the results have been downscaled to 1 km resolution in order to identify and quantify the areas in Austria, which will be more affected bioclimatologically. The constructed maps present current and future climatic conditions and also differences for the different time slices and SRES-scenarios of the IPCC. Maps of the difference between the Physiological Equivalent temperature and air temperature have been constructed to show that the used thermal indices, which have been applied by the IPCC underestimate the expected thermal bioclimate conditions for future climate. The results offer fundamental information for tourism and recreation authorities for present and expected climatic and bioclimatic conditions.

National and Local Vulnerability to Climate-Related Disasters in Latin America

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rubin, Olivier; Rossing, Tine

2012-01-01

are main determinants of natural disaster mortality in Latin America. Locally, the region's poor are particularly susceptible to climate-related natural hazards. As a result of their limited access to capital, adaptation based on social assets constitutes an effective coping strategy. Evidence from Bolivia......The Latin American region is particularly prone to climate-related natural hazards. However, this article argues that natural hazards are only partly to blame for the region's vulnerability to natural disasters with quantitative evidence suggesting instead that income per capita and inequality...... and Belize illustrates the importance of social assets in protecting the most vulnerable against natural disasters....

Ecosystem-Based Adaptation to Climate Change in Caribbean Small Island Developing States: Integrating Local and External Knowledge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiina Kurvits

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS are vulnerable to climate change impacts including sea level rise, invasive species, ocean acidification, changes in rainfall patterns, increased temperatures, and changing hazard regimes including hurricanes, floods and drought. Given high dependencies in Caribbean SIDS on natural resources for livelihoods, a focus on ecosystems and their interaction with people is essential for climate change adaptation. Increasingly, ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA approaches are being highlighted as an approach to address climate change impacts. Specifically, EbA encourages the use of local and external knowledge about ecosystems to identify climate change adaptation approaches. This paper critically reviews EbA in Caribbean SIDS, focusing on the need to integrate local and external knowledge. An analysis of current EbA in the Caribbean is undertaken alongside a review of methodologies used to integrate local and external expertise for EbA. Finally key gaps, lessons learnt and suggested ways forward for EbA in Caribbean SIDS and potentially further afield are identified.

Energy Saving Potential of PCMs in Buildings under Future Climate Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdo Abdullah Ahmed Gassar

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Energy consumption reduction under changing climate conditions is a major challenge in buildings design, where excessive energy consumption creates an economic and environmental burden. Improving thermal performance of the buildings through support applying phase change material (PCM is a promising strategy for reducing building energy consumption under future climate change. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the energy saving potentials in buildings under future climate conditions in the humid and snowy regions in the hot continental and humid subtropical climates of the east Asia (Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong when various PCMs with different phase change temperatures are applied to a lightweight building envelope. Methodology in this work is implemented in two phases: firstly, investigation of energy saving potentials in buildings through inclusion of three types of PCMs with different phase temperatures into the building envelop separately and use weather file in the present (2017; and, secondly, evaluation of the effect of future climate change on the performance of PCMs by analyzing energy saving potentials of PCMs with 2020, 2050 and 2080 weather data. The results show that the inclusion of PCM into the building envelope is a promising strategy to increase the energy performance in buildings during both heating and cooling seasons in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong under future climate conditions. The energy savings achieved by using PCMs in those regions are electricity savings of 4.48–8.21%, 3.81–9.69%, and 1.94–5.15%, and gas savings of 1.65–16.59%, 7.60–61.76%, and 62.07–93.33% in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong, respectively, for the years 2017, 2020, 2050 and 2080. In addition, BioPCM and RUBITHERMPCM are the most efficient for improving thermal performance and saving energy in buildings in the tested regions and years.

Climatic change and local policy, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Policy options and implementation strategies to reduce emission of CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schol, E.; Van den Bosch, A.; Ligthart, F.A.T.M.; Roemer, J.C.; Ruijg, G.J.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Dinkelman, D.H.; Kok, I.C.; De Paauw, K.F.B.

1998-04-01

Insight is given into the local policy options with respect to climate change, in this case within the sphere of influence of Amsterdam local authorities. A list of new policy options for CO2-reduction has been made with the assistance of local policy makers and representatives of interest groups. These policy options have been divided into three qualitative scenarios: Institutional Cultural Change, Technological Innovation and Least Regrets. The environmental, economic and other effects have been described for each policy option. The three most interesting policy options have been selected by local policy makers and representatives of interest groups during a workshop. Implementation strategies have been developed for the options selected. These strategies have been discussed during a second workshop. The reduction target, stabilization of CO2-emissions in 2015 compared to 1993, can be realized by a combination of all the new policy options. The three selected policy options count for 40% of this total CO2-emission reduction. Finally, a general outline on the methodology to construct local policies for climate protection has been described. This methodology can also be applied to other cities and municipal administrators, e.g. participants of Cities for Climate Protection, an initiative of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, or the Netherlands Climate Association. 136 refs

From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

2014-12-01

Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

Effects of Climatic Conditions and Soil Properties on Cabernet Sauvignon Berry Growth and Anthocyanin Profiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo Cheng

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two “Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V” vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012. The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3′5′-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of

Effects of climatic conditions and soil properties on Cabernet Sauvignon berry growth and anthocyanin profiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Guo; He, Yan-Nan; Yue, Tai-Xin; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Zhen-Wen

2014-09-02

Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two "Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V)" vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012). The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C) days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3'5'-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of high-quality wine grapes

Local Perceptions and Responses to Climate Change and Variability: The Case of Laikipia District, Kenya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Ayeri Ogalleh

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Agricultural policies in Kenya aim to improve farmers’ livelihoods. With projected climate change, these policies are short of mechanisms that promote farmers’ adaptation. As a result, smallholders are confronted with a variety of challenges including climate change, which hinders their agricultural production. Local knowledge can be instrumental in assisting smallholders to cope with climate change and variability. In this paper, we present empirical evidence that demonstrates local knowledge, perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability amongst smallholders of Laikipia district of Kenya. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI calculated for one station is compared with smallholders’ perceptions. Data was collected using qualitative and quantitative methods in Umande and Muhonia sub-locations. Qualitative data included 46 transcripts from focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Quantitative data is derived from 206 interviewees. We analyzed qualitative and quantitative data using Atlas-ti and SPSS respectively. According to smallholders’ perceptions, climatic variability is increasingly changing. Local perceptions include decreasing rainfalls, increasing temperatures, increasing frosts and increasing hunger. The PDSI shows a trend towards severe droughts in the last four decades, which is in accordance with farmers’ perceptions. Smallholders use a combination of coping and adaptation strategies to respond to variability, including, among others, diversification of crop varieties, migration and sale of livestock. Significant relationships exist between drought perceptions and some adaptations such as migration and sale of livestock. Farmers have an in-depth knowledge of climatic variability, which they use to inform their coping and adaptation strategies. Knowledge of climatic perceptions and adaptations are vital entry points for decision makers and policy makers to learn how and where to enhance the

Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

2017-11-01

Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA

Science.gov (United States)

Howe, Peter D.; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2015-06-01

Addressing climate change in the United States requires enactment of national, state and local mitigation and adaptation policies. The success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support and behaviours at appropriate scales. Public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states and localities. Here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. The model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. The analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. Nationally, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43 to 80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. These estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.

Localizing drought monitoring products to support agricultural climate service advisories in South Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Qamer, F. M.; Matin, M. A.; Yadav, N. K.; Bajracharya, B.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Krupnik, T. J.; Hussain, G.

2017-12-01

The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identifies drought as one of the major climate risks in South Asia. During past two decades, a large amount of climate data have been made available by the scientific community, but the deployment of climate information for local level and agricultural decision making remains less than optimal. The provisioning of locally calibrated, easily accessible, decision-relevant and user-oriented information, in the form of drought advisory service could help to prepare communities to reduce climate vulnerability and increase resilience. A collaborative effort is now underway to strengthen existing and/or establish new drought monitoring and early warning systems in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan by incorporating standard ground-based observations, earth observation datasets, and numerical forecast models. ICT-based agriculture drought monitoring platforms, hosted at national agricultural and meteorological institutions, are being developed and coupled with communications and information deployment strategies to enable the rapid and efficient deployment of information that farmers can understand, interpret, and act on to adapt to anticipated droughts. Particular emphasis is being placed on the calibration and validation of data products through retrospective analysis of time series data, in addition to the installation of automatic weather station networks. In order to contextualize monitoring products to that they may be relevant for farmers' primary cropping systems, district level farming practices calendars are being compiled and validated through focus groups and surveys to identify the most important times and situations during which farmers can adapt to drought. High-resolution satellite crop distribution maps are under development and validation to add value to these efforts. This programme also aims to enhance capacity of agricultural extension staff to better understand

Peatlands as a unique climatic hotspots

Science.gov (United States)

Slowinska, S.; Marcisz, K.; Slowinski, M. M.; Blazejczyk, K.; Lamentowicz, M.

2017-12-01

Peatlands are unique environments, often acting as microrefugia of various taxa. High groundwater table, organic soils, specific vegetation and topography are important determinants of their local climatic conditions. However, relations between those determinants are not stable. For example, seasonal changes in weather patterns, hydrological dynamics, and local vegetation may alter microclimate. Additionally, long-term changes are important factor, as for example overgrowing due to significant change of microclimate conditions, what in turn changes geochemical and biological processes in the peat layer. We have been investigating interactions between abiotic and biotic factors of a small Sphagnum mire (ca. 6.0 ha) for over ten years now. The mire is located in Poland in transitional temperate climate and is the only place in polish lowlands where glacial relict Betula nana occurs. Identification of local climate of the mire, its microclimatic differentiation and its influence on surroundings were objectives of the study. We recorded water level fluctuations, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature and humidity, and peat temperature at five monitoring plots at the mire and observed significant differences between them. We also investigated Sphagnum mosses growth and testate amoeba diversity and community structure to understand biological response of those differences. We observed that local climate of the mire was significantly different from open area reference place, it was much colder especially during nights. The average minimal temperature at the height 30 cm for growing seasons 2010-2012 was 3.7oC lower there and ground frosts occurred even in the summer. The climate of the mire affected the forest directly adjacent to it, and depending on weather conditions the strength and the distance of this interaction was different. Our results show that micro-environmental changes affects on biological processes and should be taken into consideration

Community-based adaptation to climate change: an update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ayers, Jessica; Huq, Saleemul

2009-06-15

Over a billion people - the world's poorest and most bulnerable communities – will bear the brunt of climate change. For them, building local capacity to cope is a vital step towards resilience. Community-based adaptation (CBA) is emerging as a key response to this challenge. Tailored to local cultures and conditions, CBA supports and builds on autonomous adaptations to climate variability, such as the traditional baira or floating gardens of Bangladesh, which help small farmers' crops survive climate-driven floods. Above all, CBA is participatory – a process involving both local stakeholders, and development and disaster risk reduction practitioners. As such, it builds on existing cultural norms while addressing local development issues that contribute to climate vulnerability. CBA is now gaining ground in many regions, and is ripe for the reassessment offered here.

Urban field classification by "local climate zones" in a medium-sized Central European city: the case of Olomouc (Czech Republic)

Science.gov (United States)

Lehnert, Michal; Geletič, Jan; Husák, Jan; Vysoudil, Miroslav

2015-11-01

The stations of the Metropolitan Station Network in Olomouc (Czech Republic) were assigned to local climatic zones, and the temperature characteristics of the stations were compared. The classification of local climatic zones represents an up-to-date concept for the unification of the characterization of the neighborhoods of climate research sites. This study is one of the first to provide a classification of existing stations within local climate zones. Using a combination of GIS-based analyses and field research, the values of geometric and surface cover properties were calculated, and the stations were subsequently classified into the local climate zones. It turned out that the classification of local climatic zones can be efficiently used for representative documentation of the neighborhood of the climate stations. To achieve a full standardization of the description of the neighborhood of a station, the classification procedures, including the methods used for the processing of spatial data and methods used for the indication of specific local characteristics, must be also standardized. Although the main patterns of temperature differences between the stations with a compact rise, those with an open rise and the stations with no rise or sparsely built areas were evident; the air temperature also showed considerable differences within particular zones. These differences were largely caused by various geometric layout of development and by unstandardized placement of the stations. For the direct comparison of temperatures between zones, particularly those stations which have been placed in such a way that they are as representative as possible for the zone in question should be used in further research.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating

Innovation of Local Government in Creating Conducive Investment Climate (Study in Lamongan Regency)

OpenAIRE

Khoiri, A. Miftakhul

2016-01-01

Local government needs innovation to solve public problems, one of them is investment climate. The problems related to investment climate include no security and weak rule of law, lack of infrastructure, las well as ong and complicated bureaucracy. Lamongan Regency is trying to create innovative programs to solve investment problems. Those innovations include Regional Regulation No. 2 of 2015 and Regent Decree number 23 of 2015, proactive service, fast service package, SMS Gateway, facilitati...

Impact of future climatic conditions on the potential for soil organic matter priming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reinsch, Sabine; Ambus, Per; Thornton, Barry

2013-01-01

Terrestrial carbon (C) storage and turnover are of major interest under changing climatic conditions. We present a laboratory microcosm study investigating the effects of anticipated climatic conditions on the soil microbial community and related changes in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition....... Soil samples were taken from a heath-land after six years of exposure to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) in combination with summer drought (D) and increased temperature (T). Soil C-dynamics were investigated in soils from: (i) ambient, (ii) eCO2, and (iii) plots exposed to the combination of factors...... simulating future climatic conditions (TDeCO2) that simulate conditions predicted for Denmark in 2075. 13C enriched glucose (3 atom% excess) was added to soil microcosms, soil CO2 efflux was measured over a period of two weeks and separated into glucose- and SOM-derived C. Microbial biomass was measured...

Multiple selective events at the PRDM16 functional pathway shaped adaptation of western European populations to different climate conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Quagliarello, Andrea; De Fanti, Sara; Giuliani, Cristina; Abondio, Paolo; Serventi, Patrizia; Sarno, Stefania; Sazzini, Marco; Luiselli, Donata

2017-12-30

Several studies highlighted the role of climate in shaping many human evolutionary processes. This occurred even in relatively recent times, having affected various human phenotypic traits, among which metabolic processes that orchestrate absorption and accumulation of substances to maintain energy homeostasis, that is critical for the survival of individuals in high energy-expenditure environments. To date, most researches have focalized on detection of climatic influence on SNPs' frequency in populations exposed to extreme environmental conditions or by comparing variation patterns between populations from different continents. In this study, we instead explored the genetic background of distinct western European human groups at loci involved in nutritional and thermoregulation processes, to test whether patterns of differential local adaptation to environmental conditions could be appreciated also at a lower geographical scale. Taking advantage from the 1000 Genomes Project data, genetic information for 21 genes involved in nutritional and thermoregulation processes was analysed for three western European populations. The applied Anthropological Genetics methods pointed to appreciable differentiation between the examined groups especially for the PRDM16 gene. Moreover, several neutrality tests suggested that balancing selection has acted on different regions of the gene in people from Great Britain, as well as that more recent positive selection could have also targeted some PRDM16 SNPs in Finn and Italian populations. These series of adaptive footprints are plausibly related to climate variability in both ancient and relatively recent times. Since this locus is involved in thermoregulation mechanisms and adipogenesis, local adaptations mediated by a pathway related to the brown adipose tissue activity could have evolved in response to changing cold temperature exposures of such populations.

Does safety climate moderate the influence of staffing adequacy and work conditions on nurse injuries?

Science.gov (United States)

Mark, Barbara A; Hughes, Linda C; Belyea, Michael; Chang, Yunkyung; Hofmann, David; Jones, Cheryl B; Bacon, Cynthia T

2007-01-01

Hospital nurses have one of the highest work-related injury rates in the United States. Yet, approaches to improving employee safety have generally focused on attempts to modify individual behavior through enforced compliance with safety rules and mandatory participation in safety training. We examined a theoretical model that investigated the impact on nurse injuries (back injuries and needlesticks) of critical structural variables (staffing adequacy, work engagement, and work conditions) and further tested whether safety climate moderated these effects. A longitudinal, non-experimental, organizational study, conducted in 281 medical-surgical units in 143 general acute care hospitals in the United States. Work engagement and work conditions were positively related to safety climate, but not directly to nurse back injuries or needlesticks. Safety climate moderated the relationship between work engagement and needlesticks, while safety climate moderated the effect of work conditions on both needlesticks and back injuries, although in unexpected ways. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our findings suggest that positive work engagement and work conditions contribute to enhanced safety climate and can reduce nurse injuries.

Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

Science.gov (United States)

Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

Enhancing Communication of Climate Impacts Assessments: Examples of Local Stories, Animations and Video.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzpatrick, M. F.; Grigholm, B. O.

2014-12-01

Comprehensive climate impacts assessments are important vehicles for conveying salient information to the public and policy makers. However, over the last few decades communication of this important information has been hampered for a number of reasons. Firstly, we have a rapidly changing social media landscape, where there are fewer opportunities for in-depth treatment of issues. To compete in this arena, climate information needs to be packaged in sound bites, and much of the nuance and complexity may be lost. Secondly, scientific literacy among the general U.S. population is not particularly high, which creates a barrier to understanding and limits the audiences that can be reached. Thirdly, climate science has been undermined by misinformation over many years often funded by fossil fuel interests. While this latter obstacle is clearly diminishing - largely in the face of evidence from the undeniable climate impacts that are already being seen by communities - there has been much confusion generated to date. Despite the fact that 97% of active climate scientists agree that the planet is warming as a result of human greenhouse gas emission, only 42% of the U.S. population agrees (Pew Research, 2013). In the face of these challenges, much of the work that the Union of Concerned Scientists does to translate climate impacts assessments has shifted to visuals, animations, and videos that people can relate to and connect with more readily. In this session we will share some of the general design features, discuss target audiences, and outline production limitations of several local stories involving videos and animations, as well as present some recent infographics. One example of this work are case studies that focus on sea level rise and involve a local personality who can speak to climate impacts at the community level. We understand the power of visual images and stories in creating messages that stick, and we use this in designing animations that explain the

Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

Science.gov (United States)

Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

2014-05-01

Background: Wine production in Roussillon, southern France, has been subjected to deep structural changes in cultural practices since the 1970's, due to changes in demand and market organization. In this Mediterranean region, temperature and rainfall parameters have long been adapted to fortified wine production, but might be less suited to dry wine production, which is nowadays prevailing. The wine industry in Roussillon can be studied as a social-ecological system where local economical and social characteristics are strongly linked to physical inputs. Thus changes in climate, especially warming and drying trends that have been detected and projected by the IPCC in the Mediterranean basin, may disrupt the local economy and social organization in the long term. The aim of our study is to assess the role played by recent (1956-2010) and near-future (2010-2035) changes in temperature and rainfall inputs in the evolution of the system's adaptive capacity to combined long term climatic and economic changes. Methods: Our study combined quantitative and qualitative data. We first assessed recent exposure to climate change by analysing change in daily data of temperature and rainfall observed in Perpignan weather station from 1956 to 2010. Thirty-nine in-depth interviews with local producers and key stakeholders of the local wine industry helped us understand the impacts of recent climatic conditions in the system's adaptive capacity. Then, we measured future changes in temperature and rainfall based on daily data simulated by ARPEGE-Climat (SCRATCH10 dataset) at an 8-km spatial scale, for emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, up to 2060. Based on the impacts of recent changes in the system, we inferred the possible impacts of future climate change on the system's equilibrium. Results and discussion: Climate data analyses show that changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns have occurred in Perpignan since the mid-1980's, and that current (2001-2010) conditions are

Sales down due to particularly mild climatic conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Paris, 27 July 2007 - For the six months to 30 June 2007, Gaz de France's consolidated sales amounted to euro 13,778 million, down 11 per cent compared to the same period in 2006. This performance continues the trend seen over the first quarter of 2007 and in particular reflects the continuation into the second quarter of the climatic factors that affected the start of the year: an exceptionally warm 2006/2007 winter, followed by a spring season with particularly high temperatures. The average temperature of the first half of 2007 corresponds to a heat risk of less than one per cent, meaning that the probability of such a temperature taking place is less than one per cent. Over the first half of the year, volumes distributed in France were down by 25 TWh compared to a comparable period with average weather conditions, whereas in 2006 they were 15 TWh above average. The impact of the weather had similar effects outside of France. Under average weather conditions, the downturn in Group sales was limited to only 0.8 per cent mainly due to market conditions made difficult by the climate, leading to a lower level of gas production and arbitrage activities. Over the first six months of 2007, the Group sought to: - Continue to strengthen its international presence, currently with euro 5,602 million in sales outside of France. The percentage of sales generated outside of France represented 41 per cent of the Group total at the end of June 2007 and increased by 4 percentage points between the first half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. - Prepare for the deregulation of the markets on 1 July 2007 and a new commercial policy for retail customers that has been built around multi-energy and multi-service market offerings. - Create a new subsidiary for the distribution, a process which will be effective at the end of the year as announced. In spite of this unfavourable context, the Group maintains the financial objective for 2007 presented with the 2006 accounts: '2007 will

Combined installation of electric and heat supply for climatic conditions of Iraq

Science.gov (United States)

Kaisi, Osama Al; Sidenkov, D. V.

2017-11-01

Electricity, heating and cooling are the three main components that make up the energy consumption base in residential, commercial and public buildings around the world. Demand for energy and fuel costs are constantly growing. Combined cooling, heating and power generation or trigeneration can be a promising solution to such a problem, providing an efficient, reliable, flexible, competitive and less harmful alternative to existing heat and cold supply systems. In this paper, scheme of the tri-generation plant on non-aqueous working substances is considered as an installation of a locally centralized electro-heat and cold supply of a typical residential house in a hot climate. The scheme of the combined installation of electro-heat (cold) supply consisted of the vapor power plant and heat pump system on low-boiling working substance for local consumers under the climatic conditions of Iraq is presented. The possibility of using different working substances in the thermodynamic cycles of these units, which will provide better efficiency of such tri-generation systems is shown. The calculations of steam turbine cycles and heat pump part on the selected working substances are conducted. It is proposed to use heat exchangers of plate type as the main exchangers in the combined processing. The developed method of thermal-hydraulic calculation of heat exchangers implemented in MathCad, which allows to evaluate the efficiency of plants of this type using the ε - NTU method. For the selected working substances of the steam part the optimal temperature of heat supply to the steam generator is determined. The results of thermodynamic and technical-economic analysis of the application of various working substances in the “organic” Rankine cycle of the steam turbine unit and the heat pump system of the heat and cold supply system are presented.

Environmental risk of climate change and groundwater abstraction on stream ecological conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seaby, Lauren Paige; Bøgh, Eva; Jensen, Niels H.

with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model. The relative and combined impacts on low flows, groundwater levels, and nitrate leaching are quantified and compared to assess the water resource sensitivity...... and risk to stream ecological conditions. We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher...... flows and groundwater levels are of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future...

Impact assessment and coastal climate change adaptation in a local transdisciplinary perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, N. H.; Knudsen, Per

, private and public institutions, and the local communities provides: understanding of the immediate and potential future challenges; appreciation of different stakeholder motives, business agendas, legislative constraints etc., and common focus on how to cost-efficiently adapt to and manage impacts......From an applied point of view, the authors present and discuss inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to assess and deal with natural coastal hazards and climate change impacts. The construction of a shared working platform for knowledge integration across levels of governance and between research...... of climate change. The platform is dynamically updated with additional data and knowledge, e.g. from climate change evidence, or, by provision of updated regional models of future sea level rise. In order to integrate natural hazards and impact development over time, models on hydrology, geology...

Incorporating Air Quality Improvement at a Local Level into Climate Policy in the Transport Sector: A Case Study in Bandung City, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helmi Gunawan

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Climate policy has a strong influence on policy processes at national levels in Indonesia, while other policies with a focus on air quality improvement are being implemented at local levels. Indonesia as a developing country has committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG emissions by 29 percent by the year 2030. This calls into question the extent to which cities and local governments can cope with the challenges of climate change mitigation. The purpose of the research is to find out the extent to which local air pollution reduction policies can contribute to the climate change mitigation program. The research design involved an empirical case study on governance and policy relevant to climate change efforts to lower GHG in Bandung City, Indonesia. The study evaluated the air quality improvement and the climate change mitigation programs using the actor-based framework of the Contextual Interaction Theory (CIT. The governance and stakeholder characteristic of climate change mitigation were also analysed using the structural context part of the CIT framework. The result shows that air quality improvement policy is implemented separately from climate policy; the latter operates at the national level and the former at the local level. By looking at the actor interaction analysis, the study concludes that a more holistic environmental policy approach would be more efficient at reducing local air pollution and contributing to the mitigation of climate change.

Socioeconomic Drought in a Changing Climate: Modeling and Management

Science.gov (United States)

AghaKouchak, Amir; Mehran, Ali; Mazdiyasni, Omid

2016-04-01

Drought is typically defined based on meteorological, hydrological and land surface conditions. However, in many parts of the world, anthropogenic changes and water management practices have significantly altered local water availability. Socioeconomic drought refers to conditions whereby the available water supply cannot satisfy the human and environmental water needs. Surface water reservoirs provide resilience against local climate variability (e.g., droughts), and play a major role in regional water management. This presentation focuses on a framework for describing socioeconomic drought based on both water supply and demand information. We present a multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI; Mehran et al., 2015). This model links the information on inflow and surface reservoir storage to water demand. MSRRI integrates a "top-down" and a "bottom-up" approach for describing socioeconomic drought. The "top-down" component describes processes that cannot be simply controlled or altered by local decision-makers and managers (e.g., precipitation, climate variability, climate change), whereas the "bottom-up" component focuses on the local resilience, and societal capacity to respond to droughts. The two components (termed, Inflow-Demand Reliability (IDR) indicator and Water Storage Resilience (WSR) indicator) are integrated using a nonparametric multivariate approach. We use this framework to assess the socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium Drought (1998-2010) and the 2011-2014 California Droughts. MSRRI provides additional information on socioeconomic drought onset, development and termination based on local resilience and human demand that cannot be obtained from the commonly used drought indicators. We show that MSRRI can be used for water management scenario analysis (e.g., local water availability based on different human water demands scenarios). Finally

Urban Heat Islands and Their Mitigation vs. Local Impacts of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Taha, H.

2007-12-01

Urban heat islands and their mitigation take on added significance, both negative and positive, when viewed from a climate-change perspective. In negative terms, urban heat islands can act as local exacerbating factors, or magnifying lenses, to the effects of regional and large-scale climate perturbations and change. They can locally impact meteorology, energy/electricity generation and use, thermal environment (comfort and heat waves), emissions of air pollutants, photochemistry, and air quality. In positive terms, on the other hand, mitigation of urban heat islands (via urban surface modifications and control of man-made heat, for example) can potentially have a beneficial effect of mitigating the local negative impacts of climate change. In addition, mitigation of urban heat islands can, in itself, contribute to preventing regional and global climate change, even if modestly, by helping reduce CO2 emissions from power plants and other sources as a result of decreased energy use for cooling (both direct and indirect) and reducing the rates of meteorology-dependent emissions of air pollutants. This presentation will highlight aspects and characteristics of heat islands, their mitigation, their modeling and quantification techniques, and recent advances in meso-urban modeling of California (funded by the California Energy Commission). In particular, the presentation will focus on results from quantitative, modeling-based analyses of the potential benefits of heat island mitigation in 1) reducing point- and area-source emissions of CO2, NOx, and VOC as a result of reduced cooling energy demand and ambient/surface temperatures, 2) reducing evaporative and fugitive hydrocarbon emissions as a result of lowered temperatures, 3) reducing biogenic hydrocarbon emissions from existing vegetative cover, 4) slowing the rates of tropospheric/ground-level ozone formation and/or accumulation in the urban boundary layer, and 5) helping improve air quality. Quantitative estimates

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

2012-05-01

The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

1992-06-01

The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 x 3.0 x 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models

Modelling climate change impacts on stream habitat conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boegh, Eva; Conallin, John; Karthikeyan, Matheswaran

Impact from groundwater abstraction on freshwater resources and ecosystems is an issue of sincere concern in Denmark and many other countries worldwide. In addition, climate change projections add complexity to the existing conflict between water demands to satisfy human needs and water demands...... required to conserve streams as biologically diverse and healthy ecosystems. Solutions to this intensifying conflict require a holistic approach whereby stream biota is related to their physical environment at catchment scale, as also demanded by the EU Water Framework Directive. In the present study......, climate impacts on stream ecological conditions were quantified by combining a heat and mass stream flow with a habitat suitability modelling approach. Habitat suitability indices were developed for stream velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrate. Generally, water depth was found...

The NOAA Local Climate Analysis Tool - An Application in Support of a Weather Ready Nation

Science.gov (United States)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M.

2012-12-01

Citizens across the U.S., including decision makers from the local to the national level, have a multitude of questions about climate, such as the current state and how that state fits into the historical context, and more importantly, how climate will impact them, especially with regard to linkages to extreme weather events. Developing answers to these types of questions for locations has typically required extensive work to gather data, conduct analyses, and generate relevant explanations and graphics. Too frequently providers don't have ready access to or knowledge of reliable, trusted data sets, nor sound, scientifically accepted analysis techniques such that they can provide a rapid response to queries they receive. In order to support National Weather Service (NWS) local office forecasters with information they need to deliver timely responses to climate-related questions from their customers, we have developed the Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT). LCAT uses the principles of artificial intelligence to respond to queries, in particular, through use of machine technology that responds intelligently to input from users. A user translates customer questions into primary variables and issues and LCAT pulls the most relevant data and analysis techniques to provide information back to the user, who in turn responds to their customer. Most responses take on the order of 10 seconds, which includes providing statistics, graphical displays of information, translations for users, metadata, and a summary of the user request to LCAT. Applications in Phase I of LCAT, which is targeted for the NWS field offices, include Climate Change Impacts, Climate Variability Impacts, Drought Analysis and Impacts, Water Resources Applications, Attribution of Extreme Events, and analysis techniques such as time series analysis, trend analysis, compositing, and correlation and regression techniques. Data accessed by LCAT are homogenized historical COOP and Climate Prediction Center

Predicting the impacts of climate change on animal distributions: the importance of local adaptation and species' traits

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

HELLMANN, J. J.; LOBO, N. F.

2011-12-20

The geographic range limits of many species are strongly affected by climate and are expected to change under global warming. For species that are able to track changing climate over broad geographic areas, we expect to see shifts in species distributions toward the poles and away from the equator. A number of ecological and evolutionary factors, however, could restrict this shifting or redistribution under climate change. These factors include restricted habitat availability, restricted capacity for or barriers to movement, or reduced abundance of colonists due the perturbation effect of climate change. This research project examined the last of these constraints - that climate change could perturb local conditions to which populations are adapted, reducing the likelihood that a species will shift its distribution by diminishing the number of potential colonists. In the most extreme cases, species ranges could collapse over a broad geographic area with no poleward migration and an increased risk of species extinction. Changes in individual species ranges are the processes that drive larger phenomena such as changes in land cover, ecosystem type, and even changes in carbon cycling. For example, consider the poleward range shift and population outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle that has decimated millions of acres of Douglas fir trees in the western US and Canada. Standing dead trees cause forest fires and release vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. The beetle likely shifted its range because it is not locally adapted across its range, and it appears to be limited by winter low temperatures that have steadily increased in the last decades. To understand range and abundance changes like the pine beetle, we must reveal the extent of adaptive variation across species ranges - and the physiological basis of that adaptation - to know if other species will change as readily as the pine beetle. Ecologists tend to assume that range shifts are the dominant

Localized climate control in greenhouses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Booij, P.S.; Sijs, J.; Fransman, J.E.

2012-01-01

Strategies for controlling the indoor climate in greenhouses are based on a few sensors and actuators in combination with an assumption that climate variables, such as temperature, are uniform throughout the greenhouse. While this is already an improper assumption for conventional greenhouses, it

Using a community-driven approach to identify local forest and climate change priorities in Teslin, Yukon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joleen Timko

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The likelihood of addressing the complex environmental, economic, and social/cultural issues associated with local climate change impacts is enhanced when collaborative partnerships with local people are established. Using a community-centered approach in the Teslin region of Canada’s Yukon Territory, we utilized our research skills to respond to local needs for information by facilitating both an internal community process to clarify traditional and local knowledge, values, and perceptions on locally identified priorities, while gathering external information to enable local people to make sound decisions. Specifically, we sought to clarify local perceptions surrounding climate change impacts on fire risk and wildlife habitat, and the potential adaptation strategies appropriate and feasible within the Teslin Tlingit Traditional Territory. This paper provides a characterization of the study region and our project team; provides background on the interview and data collection process; presents our key results; and discusses the importance of our findings and charts a way forward for our continued work with the people in the Teslin region. This approach presents an excellent opportunity to help people holistically connect a range of local values, including fire risk mitigation, habitat enhancement, economic development, and enhanced social health.

Local collectivities and climatic change. Are you ready? A guide for the adaptation devoted to the local collectivities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

Facing the climatic change effects, it is necessary to develop a national but also regional adaptation policy to the global warming. This guide aims to give, to the local managers, information on the global warming and bring possible adaptation measures. The sectors of planning, buildings, transports, public health, environment and public information are discussed. (A.L.B.)

Transformational leadership climate : Performance linkages, mechanisms, and boundary conditions at the organizational level

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Menges, J.; Walter, F.; Vogel, B.; Bruch, H.

2011-01-01

Transformational leadership (TFL) climate describes the degree to which leaders throughout an organization engage in TFL behaviors. In this study, we investigate performance linkages, mechanisms, and boundary conditions of TFL climate at the organizational level of analysis. In a sample of 158

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2011-01-01

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

Regional climate, local climate and ozone air pollution in Tours and Orleans cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berthelot, M.

2006-10-01

The importance of the relations between climate and the air pollution justifies the interest related to the role of the urban heat island of heat with respect to the night persistence of ozone in urban environment. When the days are favourable with important ozone concentrations, the agglomerations of the area observe a dynamics day laborer of ozone different from that observed in rural environment. The study is undertaken on the towns of Turns and Orleans where the observations of Lig'Air revealed a night persistence of ozone whereas the concentrations drop more quickly in periphery. This phenomenon is remarkable during the little broken down anticyclonic days. The region region Centre is a ground of study privileged for ozone because of its situation in the south-west of the Island of France rich in precursors of ozone. When flow is of continental origin, the Centre area is found then under the influence of the Paris area. The investigation of a study of the air pollution must take into account the notes of the regional climate and local climate. Several preliminary studies must intervene to answer our principal problems. First of all a descriptive study of the regional climate is carried out with the participation of Meteo-France. The current absence of climatic atlas as well as the many disparities of the climate related to extended from the territory partly justify the interest of our study. The regional approach of the climate is also essential for the continuation of work on a finer scale on the agglomerations of Turns and Orleans in order to detect the urban heat island of heat there. Collaboration with Meteo-France and Lig'Air made it possible to establish a satisfying network of measurement making it possible to obtain notable thermal differences between the downtown area and the surrounding rural environment. The correlation between meteorology and the proven air pollution leads us to establish the climatology of ozone. Many are the studies having

Local Government Units in Indonesia: Demographic Attributes and Differences in Financial Condition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rusmin Rusmin

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This study examines the outcome of decentralisation reforms in Indonesia, focusing on the association between demographic characteristics and differences in the financial condition of local governments units. It investigates cross-sectional data pertaining to demographic characteristics and financial statements audited by the Supreme Audit Body of 419 Indonesian local government units for the fiscal year 2007. It utilises demographic attributes including scope of entity, location, tenure (date of entry, gender, human development index (HDI and size of local governments to explain differences in the financial condition of Indonesia’s local government. Local government financial condition is proxied by quick ratio, debt ratio, services ratio, and ratio of local to total revenues. The results suggest that scope and location of local government units help explain all of the financial condition variables. The findings further infer that local government units domiciled in Java tend to report better financial conditions relative to those domiciled in other islands. Our results also show that local government units with greater female populations and higher HDI are more likely to have a local authority that (1 has better ability to finance their general services from their unrestricted net assets, and (2 has greater ability to earn more revenues from local sources. Finally, this study documents that the larger the population of a local government unit, the higher its liquidity position, the stronger its ability to funding general services, and the greater its possibility earning revenues from its local sources.

Climate change adaptation among Tibetan pastoralists: challenges in enhancing local adaptation through policy support.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Yao; Grumbine, R Edward; Wilkes, Andreas; Wang, Yun; Xu, Jian-Chu; Yang, Yong-Ping

2012-10-01

While researchers are aware that a mix of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK), community-based resource management institutions, and higher-level institutions and policies can facilitate pastoralists' adaptation to climate change, policy makers have been slow to understand these linkages. Two critical issues are to what extent these factors play a role, and how to enhance local adaptation through government support. We investigated these issues through a case study of two pastoral communities on the Tibetan Plateau in China employing an analytical framework to understand local climate adaptation processes. We concluded that LEK and community-based institutions improve adaptation outcomes for Tibetan pastoralists through shaping and mobilizing resource availability to reduce risks. Higher-level institutions and policies contribute by providing resources from outside communities. There are dynamic interrelationships among these factors that can lead to support, conflict, and fragmentation. Government policy could enhance local adaptation through improvement of supportive relationships among these factors. While central government policies allow only limited room for overt integration of local knowledge/institutions, local governments often have some flexibility to buffer conflicts. In addition, government policies to support market-based economic development have greatly benefited adaptation outcomes for pastoralists. Overall, in China, there are still questions over how to create innovative institutions that blend LEK and community-based institutions with government policy making.

Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

2011-07-01

During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps

Prediction of critical heat flux by a new local condition hypothesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Im, J. H.; Jun, K. D.; Sim, J. W.; Deng, Zhijian

1998-01-01

Critical Heat Flux(CHF) was predicted for uniformly heated vertical round tube by a new local condition hypothesis which incorporates a local true steam quality. This model successfully overcame the difficulties in predicted the subcooled and quality CHF by the thermodynamic equilibrium quality. The local true steam quality is a dependent variable of the thermodynamic equilibrium quality at the exit and the quality at the Onset of Significant Vaporization(OSV). The exit thermodynamic equilibrium quality was obtained from the heat balance, and the quality at OSV was obtained from the Saha-Zuber correlation. In the past CHF has been predicted by the experimental correlation based on local or non-local condition hypothesis. This preliminary study showed that all the available world data on uniform CHF could be predicted by the model based on the local condition hypothesis

Quantifying conditional risks for water and energy systems using climate information

Science.gov (United States)

Lall, U.

2016-12-01

There has been a growing recognition of the multi-scale spatio-temporal organization of climate dynamics, and its implications for predictable, structured risk exposure to populations and infrastructure systems. At the most base level is an understanding that there are some identifiable climate modes, such as ENSO, that are associated with such outcomes. This has led to the emergence of a small cottage industry of analysts who relate different "climate indices" to specific regional outcomes. Such efforts and the associated media interest in these simplified "stories" have led to an increasing appreciation of the phenomenon, and some formal and informal efforts at decision making using such information. However, as was demonstrated through the 2014-16 El Nino forecasting season, many climate scientists over-emphasized the potential risks, while others cautioned the media as to the caveats and uncertainties associated with assuming that the forecasts of ENSO and the expected teleconnections may pan out. At least in certain sectors and regions, significant efforts or expectations as to outcomes were put in place, and some were beneficial, while others failed to manifest. Climate informed predictions for water and energy systems can be thought of as efforts to infer conditional distributions of specific outcomes given information on climate state. Invariably, the climate state may be presented as a very high dimensional spatial set of variables, with limited temporal sampling, while the water and energy attributes may be regional and constitute a much smaller dimension. One may, of course, be interested in the fact that the same climate state may lead to synchronous positive and negative effects across many locations, as may be expected under mid-latitude stationary and transient wave interaction. In this talk, I will provide examples of a few modern statistical and machine learning tools that allow a decomposition of the high dimensional climate state and its relation

A non-local computational boundary condition for duct acoustics

Science.gov (United States)

Zorumski, William E.; Watson, Willie R.; Hodge, Steve L.

1994-01-01

A non-local boundary condition is formulated for acoustic waves in ducts without flow. The ducts are two dimensional with constant area, but with variable impedance wall lining. Extension of the formulation to three dimensional and variable area ducts is straightforward in principle, but requires significantly more computation. The boundary condition simulates a nonreflecting wave field in an infinite duct. It is implemented by a constant matrix operator which is applied at the boundary of the computational domain. An efficient computational solution scheme is developed which allows calculations for high frequencies and long duct lengths. This computational solution utilizes the boundary condition to limit the computational space while preserving the radiation boundary condition. The boundary condition is tested for several sources. It is demonstrated that the boundary condition can be applied close to the sound sources, rendering the computational domain small. Computational solutions with the new non-local boundary condition are shown to be consistent with the known solutions for nonreflecting wavefields in an infinite uniform duct.

Coupling climate conditions, sediment sources and sediment transport in an alpine basin

Science.gov (United States)

Rainato, Riccardo; Picco, Lorenzo; Cavalli, Marco; Mao, Luca; Neverman, Andrew J.; Tarolli, Paolo

2017-04-01

In a fluvial system, mountain basins control sediment export to the lowland rivers. Hence, the analysis of the erosion processes and sediment delivery patterns that act in mountain basins is important. Several studies have investigated the alterations triggered by recent climatic change on the hydrological regime, whilst only a few works have explored the consequences on the sediment dynamics. Here we combined and analyzed the quasi-unique dataset of climatic conditions, landscape response, and sediment export produced, since 1986 in the Rio Cordon basin (5 km2, Eastern Italian Alps) to examine the sediment delivery processes occurring in the last three decades. The temperature, precipitation, and fluvial sediment fluxes in the basin were analyzed using continuous measurement executed by a permanent monitoring station, while the landscape evolution was investigated by three sediment source inventories established in 1994, 2006, and 2016. Thus, the analysis focused on the trends exhibited during the periods 1986-1993, 1994-2006, and 2007-2015. In terms of climatic conditions, three distinct climate forcing stages can be observed in the periods analyzed: a relatively stable phase (1986-1993), a period characterized by temperature and rainfall fluctuations (1994-2006), and a more recent warmer and wetter phase (2007-2015). In the 1986-1993 period, the fluvial sediment fluxes reflected the stable trend exhibited by the climatic conditions. In the subsequent 1994-2006 period, the average temperature and precipitation were in line with that previously observed, although with higher interannual variability. Notwithstanding the climate forcing and the occurrence of high magnitude/low frequency floods that strongly influenced the source areas, between 1994 and 2006 the Rio Cordon basin showed relatively limited erosion activity. Hence, the climatic conditions and the landscape response can only partially explain the strong increase of sediment export recorded in the 1994

The Tribal Lands Collaboratory: Building partnerships and developing tools to support local Tribal community response to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, K. D.; Wee, B.; Kuslikis, A.

2015-12-01

Response of Tribal nations and Tribal communities to current and emerging climate change challenges requires active participation of stakeholders who have effective access to relevant data, information and analytical tools. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory (TLC), currently under development, is a joint effort between the American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC), the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The vision of the TLC is to create an integrative platform that enables coordination between multiple stakeholders (e.g. Tribal resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, farmers, ranchers, and other local community members) to collaborate on locally relevant climate change issues. The TLC is intended to facilitate the transformation of data into actionable information that can inform local climate response planning. The TLC will provide the technical mechanisms to access, collect and analyze data from both internal and external sources (e.g. NASA's Giovanni climate data portal, Ameriflux or USA National Phenology Network) while also providing the social scaffolds to enable collaboration across Tribal communities and with members of the national climate change research community. The prototype project focuses on phenology, a branch of science focused on relationships between climate and the seasonal timing of biological phenomena. Monitoring changes in the timing and duration of phenological stages in plant and animal co­­­­mmunities on Tribal lands can provide insight to the direct impacts of climate change on culturally and economically significant Tribal resources . The project will leverage existing phenological observation protocols created by the USA-National Phenology Network and NEON to direct data collection efforts and will be tailored to the specific needs and concerns of the community. Phenology observations will be captured and managed within the Collaboratory

Life cycle cost analysis of HPVT air collector under different Indian climatic conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raman, Vivek; Tiwari, G.N.

2008-01-01

In this communication, a study is carried out to evaluate an annual thermal and exergy efficiency of a hybrid photovoltaic thermal (HPVT) air collector for different Indian climate conditions, of Srinagar, Mumbai, Jodhpur, New Delhi and Banglore. The study has been based on electrical, thermal and exergy output of the HPVT air collector. Further, the life cycle analysis in terms of cost/kWh has been carried out. The main focus of the study is to see the effect of interest rate, life of the HPVT air collector, subsidy, etc. on the cost/kWh HPVT air collector. A comparison is made keeping in view the energy matrices. The study reveals that (i) annual thermal and electrical efficiency decreases with increase in solar radiation and (ii) the cost/kWh is higher in case of exergy when compared with cost/kWh on the basis of thermal energy for all climate conditions. The cost/kWh for climate conditions of Jodhpur is most economical

Durability and smart condition assessment of ultra-high performance concrete in cold climates.

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-31

The goals of this study were to develop ecological ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC) with local materials and supplementary cementitious materials and to evaluate the long-term performance of UHPC in cold climates using effective mechanical test...

Impacts of East Asian Sulfate Aerosols on Local and Remote Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic aerosols exert significant climate forcing, which increases with emissions following trends of growing population and industry. Globally, aerosols cause a net cooling, counteracting greenhouse gas warming; however, regional impacts vary since emissions are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. While European and North American emissions have decreased in recent decades, Asian, particularly East Asian, emissions continued to rise into the 21st century. In addition to links between Asian anthropogenic aerosols and significant local climate impacts - for example, changes to the Asian monsoon system - studies have also shown influences on remote climate. Sulfate aerosols are particularly important for East Asia, remaining at constant levels higher than column burdens of other aerosol species. If a concerted effort - as laid out by government policies aiming to improve air quality - is made, the effects of anthropogenic aerosols (due to their short atmospheric lifetime) could be quickly reversed. Thus, it is vital to understand the climate impact aerosols have had up to now to aid in determining what will happen in the future. We use transient climate modelling experiments with the Community Earth System Model to investigate the impacts of East Asian sulfate aerosols in the present day compared to 1950 (i.e. before rapid industrialisation in this region), focusing on dynamical mechanisms leading to the occurrence of such impacts, and how their influence can spread to remote regions. We find, in addition to significant monsoon impacts, noticeable shifts in large-scale circulation features such as the ITCZ and the Pacific Walker cell. Through diabatic heating responses, changes to upper-level atmospheric dynamics are evident, leading to downstream effects on surface climate - for example, surface cooling over Europe. Understanding of these impacts is vital when considering how the good intentions of air quality improvement might inadvertently have

Sales down due to particularly mild climatic conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Paris, 27 July 2007 - For the six months to 30 June 2007, Gaz de France's consolidated sales amounted to euro 13,778 million, down 11 per cent compared to the same period in 2006. This performance continues the trend seen over the first quarter of 2007 and in particular reflects the continuation into the second quarter of the climatic factors that affected the start of the year: an exceptionally warm 2006/2007 winter, followed by a spring season with particularly high temperatures. The average temperature of the first half of 2007 corresponds to a heat risk of less than one per cent, meaning that the probability of such a temperature taking place is less than one per cent. Over the first half of the year, volumes distributed in France were down by 25 TWh compared to a comparable period with average weather conditions, whereas in 2006 they were 15 TWh above average. The impact of the weather had similar effects outside of France. Under average weather conditions, the downturn in Group sales was limited to only 0.8 per cent mainly due to market conditions made difficult by the climate, leading to a lower level of gas production and arbitrage activities. Over the first six months of 2007, the Group sought to: - Continue to strengthen its international presence, currently with euro 5,602 million in sales outside of France. The percentage of sales generated outside of France represented 41 per cent of the Group total at the end of June 2007 and increased by 4 percentage points between the first half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. - Prepare for the deregulation of the markets on 1 July 2007 and a new commercial policy for retail customers that has been built around multi-energy and multi-service market offerings. - Create a new subsidiary for the distribution, a process which will be effective at the end of the year as announced. In spite of this unfavourable context, the Group maintains the financial objective for 2007 presented with the 2006 accounts: &apos

Climate change and States security: an operational link to develop locally and on the medium term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taithe, Alexandre

2007-01-01

The author first notices that climate change and environmental degradations induce new logics in international relationships, and then discusses how consequences of climate change can be factors of instability for States, and how to address them. He recalls and comments the main effects of climate change as they have been described in IPCC reports. He outlines limitations of conventional approaches in terms of direct and indirect impacts on States. Direct effects concern territories (for example, a modification of borders due to sea level rise or to erosion), populations (impact of extreme events on housing, on health) and the economy (more particularly the primary sector and high levels of adaptation costs). The author outlines the limitations of these global models, and proposes additional and corrective approaches: hybrid (regional and global) approaches, local and medium term-based approach (some natural resource management can be assessed and organised only locally). An appendix proposes a contribution of an IPCC work-group in which impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities of the different regions of the world in front of climate changes are summarized

Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2018-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

User and stakeholder involvement for relevant, reliable and robust local-scale climate projections in Norway

Science.gov (United States)

Neby, Simon; Sobolowski, Stefan

2017-04-01

How can users and stakeholders be actively involved with providing input to and using output from local-scale climate projections? How can the scientific community better understand the needs of local actors? And how should communication and cooperation efforts be organized? These are critical questions we aim to answer in a climate services project funded by the Norwegian Research Council (R3: Relevant, Reliable and Robust local-scale climate projections for Norway). The project takes into consideration not only the scientific issues in establishing useful local-scale climate projections, but also addresses the "usability gap" between climate information and decision-making. The lack of effective communication between scientists and user communities often result in outputs and products that are not matched with decision-relevant climate information. In the R3 project, the scientific participants actively engage with a range of users that have quite different information needs: municipalities, infrastructure developers, agriculture, energy producers, insurance companies, and more. In this particular presentation, we present our experiences concerning three specific issues that relate to the stakeholder-science interface: 1) Preferences are not clear-cut and pre-defined. In practice, this means that stakeholders often do not have precise information about their needs, nor precise information about how, where and whether their needs can be voiced. Similarly, science communities tend to presuppose that stakeholders are interested and have well-articulated needs, which is hardly the case. Collectively, that means that there is a need for an approach that guides the articulation and prioritization of preferences in a manner that integrates both scientific and stakeholder perspectives and takes the integrity of both perspectives seriously. 2) Technologies are unclear. Although information may be produced and used, past experiences, trial and error processes and pragmatic

Changes in Hydrologic Conditions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Circumpolar Regions due to Climate Change Induced Permafrost Retreat

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Whiticar, M. J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria (Canada); Bhatti, J.; Startsev, N. [Northern Forestry Centre, St Edmonton, AB (Canada)

2013-07-15

Thawing permafrost peatlands substantially influence Canadian northern ecosystems by changing the regional hydrology and mobilizing the vast carbon (C) reserves that results in increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions to the atmosphere. With permafrost distribution controlled largely by topography and climate, our International polar y ear (IPY) study intensively monitored the local C cycling processes and GHG fluxes associated with different hydrologic and permafrost environments at 4 sites along a climatic gradient extending from the Isolated patches permafrost Zone (northern alberta), to the continuous permafrost Zone (Inuvik, NWT). Each site encompasses a local gradient from upland forest and peat plateau to collapse scar. Our multi-year measurements of peatland profiles and flux chambers for CH{sub 4} and CO{sub 2} concentrations and stable isotope ratios indicate processes, including methanogenesis, methanotrophy, transport and emission that control the distribution of these GHGs. These relationships are modulated by fluctuating local soil water and corresponding ecosystem conditions. The gas geochemistry shows that significant surface CH{sub 4} production occurs by both hydrogenotrophic and acetoclastic methanogenesis in submerged, anaerobic peats, e.g., collapse scars, whereas methane oxidation is restricted to aerobic, drier environments, e.g., upland sites and peat-atmosphere interface. The most active methanogenesis and emissions are in areas of actively thawing permafrost contrasting with sites under continuous permafrost. This degree of methanogenesis is being amplified by the increased rate of Arctic warming and the rapid retreat of permafrost in canada's arctic (approximately. 2.5 km/a). (author)

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

2015-04-01

To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

Building climate change into infrastructure codes and standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auld, H.; Klaasen, J.; Morris, R.; Fernandez, S.; MacIver, D.; Bernstein, D.

2009-01-01

'Full text:' Building codes and standards and the climatic design values embedded within these legal to semi-legal documents have profound safety, health and economic implications for Canada's infrastructure systems. The climatic design values that have been used for the design of almost all of today's more than $5.5 Trillion in infrastructure are based on historical climate data and assume that the extremes of the past will represent future conditions. Since new infrastructure based on codes and standards will be built to survive for decades to come, it is critically important that existing climatic design information be as accurate and up-to-date as possible, that the changing climate be monitored to detect and highlight vulnerabilities of existing infrastructure, that forensic studies of climate-related failures be undertaken and that codes and standards processes incorporate future climates and extremes as much as possible. Uncertainties in the current climate change models and their scenarios currently challenge our ability to project future extremes regionally and locally. Improvements to the spatial and temporal resolution of these climate change scenarios, along with improved methodologies to treat model biases and localize results, will allow future codes and standards to better reflect the extremes and weathering conditions expected over the lifespan of structures. In the meantime, other information and code processes can be used to incorporate changing climate conditions into upcoming infrastructure codes and standards, to “bridge” the model uncertainty gap and to complement the state of existing projections. This presentation will outline some of the varied information and processes that will be used to incorporate climate change adaptation into the next development cycle of the National Building Code of Canada and numerous other national CSA infrastructure standards. (author)

Improvement of greenhouse design and climate control in mediterranean conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tuzel, Yuksel; Zwart, de Feije; Sapounas, A.; Hemming, Silke; Stanghellini, Cecilia

2017-01-01

The Mediterranean Region is one of the most important areas of the world in terms of protected cultivation. Turkey, with its increasing greenhouse area, is one of the representative countries of the region. Thanks to the mild winter climatic conditions, cultivation of vegetables under simple

Low-cost multi-vehicle air temperature measurements for heat load assessment in local-scale climate applications

Science.gov (United States)

Zuvela-Aloise, Maja; Weyss, Gernot; Aloise, Giulliano; Mifka, Boris; Löffelmann, Philemon; Hollosi, Brigitta; Nemec, Johana; Vucetic, Visnja

2014-05-01

radiation protection. Duration of each measurement tour lasted approximately 2 hours covering the distances in radius of about 10-30 km, logging the air temperature and geographical positioning in intervals of 1-5 seconds. The collected data were aggregated on a 100 m horizontal resolution grid and compared with the local-scale climate modelling simulations with the urban climate model MUKLIMO3 initialized with the atmospheric conditions for a given day. Both measurement and modelling results show similar features for distinct local climate zones (built-up area, near water environment, forest, parks, agricultural area, etc). The spatial gradients in temperature can be assigned to different orographical and land use characteristics. Even if many ambiguities remain in both modelling and the measurement approach, the collected data provide useful information for local-scale heat assessment and can serve as a base to increase the model reliability, especially in areas with low data coverage.

The impact of FDI and domestic business climate on local entrepreneurship in Transcaucasia: A case of Georgia in the years 2005 – 2015

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ucha Surmanidze

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of FDI inflow on local entrepreneurship in Georgia. The secondary objective of the article is to determine what effects the business climate in the country has on the growth of local entrepreneurs. To verify the impact of foreign investments on domestic entrepreneurship, dynamics of active local enterprises in Georgia in the years 2005-2014 is used as a dependent variable. In regard with business climate, international business and credit rankings were selected to show how they are interrelated with foreign investments and how they affect domestic entrepreneurs. FDI has no significant effect on local entrepreneurship in Georgia, neither on their growth, nor on their fall, as Its share in the local economy is nominal. It is noteworthy, however, that inflow of foreign capital has positive impact on the country’s business climate, promoting its image and rising international recognition. The favorable business climate can help many local enterprises, especially SMEs, to benefit from liberal environment, financial and tax incentives, less regulation and bureaucracy. This paper intends to enrich relatively poor literature about FDI effects on Transcaucasian countries, providing a clear understanding to what extend the local entrepreneurship are under the influence of FDI and general business climate in the country.

Both life-history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range-wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Megan L; Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

2018-04-01

Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species-wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life-history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species-wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species' range-not only those at the trailing range edge-could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species' latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade-off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species' ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest

Sensitivity of tree ring growth to local and large-scale climate variability in a region of Southeastern Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Venegas-González, Alejandro; Chagas, Matheus Peres; Anholetto Júnior, Claudio Roberto; Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Tomazello Filho, Mario

2016-01-01

We explored the relationship between tree growth in two tropical species and local and large-scale climate variability in Southeastern Brazil. Tree ring width chronologies of Tectona grandis (teak) and Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) trees were compared with local (Water Requirement Satisfaction Index—WRSI, Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI, and Palmer Drought Severity Index—PDSI) and large-scale climate indices that analyze the equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (Trans-Niño Index-TNI and Niño-3.4-N3.4) and atmospheric circulation variations in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctic Oscillation-AAO). Teak trees showed positive correlation with three indices in the current summer and fall. A significant correlation between WRSI index and Caribbean pine was observed in the dry season preceding tree ring formation. The influence of large-scale climate patterns was observed only for TNI and AAO, where there was a radial growth reduction in months preceding the growing season with positive values of the TNI in teak trees and radial growth increase (decrease) during December (March) to February (May) of the previous (current) growing season with positive phase of the AAO in teak (Caribbean pine) trees. The development of a new dendroclimatological study in Southeastern Brazil sheds light to local and large-scale climate influence on tree growth in recent decades, contributing in future climate change studies.

Local Stability Conditions for Two Types of Monetary Models with Recursive Utility

OpenAIRE

Miyazaki, Kenji; Utsunomiya, Hitoshi

2009-01-01

This paper explores local stability conditions for money-in-utility-function (MIUF) and transaction-costs (TC) models with recursive utility.A monetary variant of the Brock-Gale condition provides a theoretical justification of the comparative statics analysis. One of sufficient conditions for local stability is increasing marginal impatience (IMI) in consumption and money. However, this does not deny the possibility of decreasing marginal impatience (DMI). The local stability with DMI is mor...

Governance by Diffusion: Transnational Municipal Networks and the Spread of Local Climate Strategies in Europe

OpenAIRE

Lukas Hakelberg

2014-01-01

Cities have become crucial actors for the global governance of climate change. Their increased activity in this field is reflected by the rising number of adoptions of local climate strategies in an original sample of 274 European cities from 1992 to 2009. Using event history analysis, I find that this spread is promoted by transnational municipal networks (TMNs) successfully deploying strategies for governance by diffusion, their impact exceeding that of most alternative explanatory factors ...

Attributing Climate Conditions for Stable Malaria Transmission to Human Activity in sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Sheldrake, L.; Mitchell, D.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Temperature and precipitation limit areas of stable malaria transmission, but the effects of climate change on the disease remain controversial. Previously, studies have not separated the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability, despite being an essential step in the attribution of climate change impacts. Ensembles of 2900 simulations of regional climate in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2013, one representing realistic conditions and the other how climate might have been in the absence of human influence, were used to force a P.falciparium climate suitability model developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. Strongest signals were detected in areas of unstable transmission, indicating their heightened sensitivity to climatic factors. Evidently, impacts of human-induced climate change were unevenly distributed: the probability of conditions being suitable for stable malaria transmission were substantially reduced (increased) in the Sahel (Greater Horn of Africa (GHOA), particularly in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands). The length of the transmission season was correspondingly shortened in the Sahel and extended in the GHOA, by 1 to 2 months, including in Kericho (Kenya), where the role of climate change in driving recent malaria occurrence is hotly contested. Human-induced warming was primarily responsible for positive anomalies in the GHOA, while reduced rainfall caused negative anomalies in the Sahel. The latter was associated with anthropogenic impacts on the West African Monsoon, but uncertainty in the RCM's ability to reproduce precipitation trends in the region weakens confidence in the result. That said, outputs correspond well with broad-scale changes in observed endemicity, implying a potentially important contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the malaria burden during the past century. Results support the health-framing of climate risk and help indicate hotspots of climate vulnerability, providing

Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

2017-03-01

The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

Spatial match-mismatch between juvenile fish and prey provides a mechanism for recruitment variability across contrasting climate conditions in the eastern Bering Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Siddon, Elizabeth Calvert; Kristiansen, Trond; Mueter, Franz J; Holsman, Kirstin K; Heintz, Ron A; Farley, Edward V

2013-01-01

Understanding mechanisms behind variability in early life survival of marine fishes through modeling efforts can improve predictive capabilities for recruitment success under changing climate conditions. Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) support the largest single-species commercial fishery in the United States and represent an ecologically important component of the Bering Sea ecosystem. Variability in walleye pollock growth and survival is structured in part by climate-driven bottom-up control of zooplankton composition. We used two modeling approaches, informed by observations, to understand the roles of prey quality, prey composition, and water temperature on juvenile walleye pollock growth: (1) a bioenergetics model that included local predator and prey energy densities, and (2) an individual-based model that included a mechanistic feeding component dependent on larval development and behavior, local prey densities and size, and physical oceanographic conditions. Prey composition in late-summer shifted from predominantly smaller copepod species in the warmer 2005 season to larger species in the cooler 2010 season, reflecting differences in zooplankton composition between years. In 2010, the main prey of juvenile walleye pollock were more abundant, had greater biomass, and higher mean energy density, resulting in better growth conditions. Moreover, spatial patterns in prey composition and water temperature lead to areas of enhanced growth, or growth 'hot spots', for juvenile walleye pollock and survival may be enhanced when fish overlap with these areas. This study provides evidence that a spatial mismatch between juvenile walleye pollock and growth 'hot spots' in 2005 contributed to poor recruitment while a higher degree of overlap in 2010 resulted in improved recruitment. Our results indicate that climate-driven changes in prey quality and composition can impact growth of juvenile walleye pollock, potentially severely affecting recruitment variability.

Reflections on the uptake of climate change policies by local governments: facing the challenges of mitigation and adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoppe, Thomas; van den Berg, Maya Marieke; Coenen, Franciscus H.J.M.

2014-01-01

Background: There is a growing body of literature that examines the role of local governments in addressing climate change vis-a-vis mitigation and adaptation. Although it appears that climate change mitigation strategies - in particular those addressing energy issues - are being adopted by a large

Microbial decomposers not constrained by climate history along a Mediterranean climate gradient in southern California.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Nameer R; Khalili, Banafshe; Martiny, Jennifer B H; Allison, Steven D

2018-06-01

Microbial decomposers mediate the return of CO 2 to the atmosphere by producing extracellular enzymes to degrade complex plant polymers, making plant carbon available for metabolism. Determining if and how these decomposer communities are constrained in their ability to degrade plant litter is necessary for predicting how carbon cycling will be affected by future climate change. We analyzed mass loss, litter chemistry, microbial biomass, extracellular enzyme activities, and enzyme temperature sensitivities in grassland litter transplanted along a Mediterranean climate gradient in southern California. Microbial community composition was manipulated by caging litter within bags made of nylon membrane that prevent microbial immigration. To test whether grassland microbes were constrained by climate history, half of the bags were inoculated with local microbial communities native to each gradient site. We determined that temperature and precipitation likely interact to limit microbial decomposition in the extreme sites along our gradient. Despite their unique climate history, grassland microbial communities were not restricted in their ability to decompose litter under different climate conditions across the gradient, although microbial communities across our gradient may be restricted in their ability to degrade different types of litter. We did find some evidence that local microbial communities were optimized based on climate, but local microbial taxa that proliferated after inoculation into litterbags did not enhance litter decomposition. Our results suggest that microbial community composition does not constrain C-cycling rates under climate change in our system, but optimization to particular resource environments may act as more general constraints on microbial communities. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Laxemar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Goeteborg (Sweden))

2010-12-15

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report is concerned with the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during periglacial and glacial climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Vidstrand et al. 2010/. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle at Laxemar. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 13,000 years. The simulation results comprise pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance and the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties

Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

2015-01-01

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

Exploring the science–policy interface on climate change: The role of the IPCC in informing local decision-making in the UK

OpenAIRE

Candice Howarth; James Painter

2016-01-01

Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) review of\\ud how to make its Assessment Reports (ARs) more accessible in the future, the research\\ud reported here assesses the extent to which the ARs are a useful tool through which scientific\\ud advice informs local decision-making on climate change in the United Kingdom. Results from\\ud interviews with local policy representatives and three workshops with UK academics, practitioners\\ud and local decision makers are present...

Human thermal comfort conditions and urban planning in hot-humid climates-The case of Cuba.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez Algeciras, José Abel; Coch, Helena; De la Paz Pérez, Guillermo; Chaos Yeras, Mabel; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-08-01

Climate regional characteristics, urban environmental conditions, and outdoors thermal comfort requirements of residents are important for urban planning. Basic studies of urban microclimate can provide information and useful resources to predict and improve thermal conditions in hot-humid climatic regions. The paper analyzes the thermal bioclimate and its influence as urban design factor in Cuba, using Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). Simulations of wind speed variations and shade conditions were performed to quantify changes in thermal bioclimate due to possible modifications in urban morphology. Climate data from Havana, Camagüey, and Santiago of Cuba for the period 2001 to 2012 were used to calculate PET with the RayMan model. The results show that changes in meteorological parameters influence the urban microclimate, and consequently modify the thermal conditions in outdoors spaces. Shade is the predominant strategy to improve urban microclimate with more significant benefits in terms of PET higher than 30 °C. For climatic regions such as the analyzed ones, human thermal comfort can be improved by a wind speed modification for thresholds of PET above 30 °C, and by a wind speed decreases in conditions below 26 °C. The improvement of human thermal conditions is crucial for urban sustainability. On this regards, our study is a contribution for urban designers, due to the possibility of taking advantage of results for improving microclimatic conditions based on urban forms. The results may enable urban planners to create spaces that people prefer to visit, and also are usable in the reconfiguration of cities.

Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael A Johansson

Full Text Available The four dengue viruses, the agents of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever in humans, are transmitted predominantly by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The abundance and the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti are influenced by temperature and precipitation. While there is strong biological evidence for these effects, empirical studies of the relationship between climate and dengue incidence in human populations are potentially confounded by seasonal covariation and spatial heterogeneity. Using 20 years of data and a statistical approach to control for seasonality, we show a positive and statistically significant association between monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and monthly changes in dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. We also found that the strength of this association varies spatially, that this variation is associated with differences in local climate, and that this relationship is consistent with laboratory studies of the impacts of these factors on vector survival and viral replication. These results suggest the importance of temperature and precipitation in the transmission of dengue viruses and suggest a reason for their spatial heterogeneity. Thus, while dengue transmission may have a general system, its manifestation on a local scale may differ from global expectations.

The regional governance of climate adaptation: a framework for developing legitimate, effective, and resilient governance arrangements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Termeer, C.J.A.M.; Dewulf, A.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W.; Buuren, van A.; Huitema, D.; Meijerink, S.; Rayner, T.; Wiering, M.

2011-01-01

Adaptation to climate change raises important governance issues. Notwithstanding the increasing attention on climate adaptation at the global and European level, the variety of local conditions and climate impacts points towards a prime role for regional actors in climate change adaptation. They

The regional governance of climate adaptation : A framework for developing legitimate, effective, and resilient governance arrangements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Termeer, Catrien C. J. A. M.; Dewulf, Art; Van Rijswick, Helena; Van Buuren, Arwin; Huitema, Dave; Meijerink, Sander; Rayner, Tim; Wiering, Mark

2011-01-01

Adaptation to climate change raises important governance issues. Notwithstanding the increasing attention on climate adaptation at the global and European level, the variety of local conditions and climate impacts points towards a prime role for regional actors in climate change adaptation. They

Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a review of modelling challenges and open questions

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefli, Bettina

2015-04-01

Hydropower is a pillar for renewable electricity production in almost all world regions. The planning horizon of major hydropower infrastructure projects stretches over several decades and consideration of evolving climatic conditions plays an ever increasing role. This review of model-based climate change impact assessments provides a synthesis of the wealth of underlying modelling assumptions, highlights the importance of local factors and attempts to identify the most urgent open questions. Based on existing case studies, it critically discusses whether current hydro-climatic modelling frameworks are likely to provide narrow enough water scenario ranges to be included into economic analyses for end-to-end climate change impact assessments including electricity market models. This will be completed with an overview of not or indirectly climate-related boundary conditions, such as economic growth, legal constraints, national subsidy frameworks or growing competition for water, which might locally largely outweigh any climate change impacts.

Potential changes in the extreme climate conditions at the regional scale: from observed data to modelling approaches and towards probabilistic climate change information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gachon, P.; Radojevic, M.; Harding, A.; Saad, C.; Nguyen, V.T.V.

2008-01-01

The changes in the characteristics of extreme climate conditions are one of the most critical challenges for all ecosystems, human being and infrastructure, in the context of the on-going global climate change. However, extremes information needed for impacts studies cannot be obtained directly from coarse scale global climate models (GCMs), due mainly to their difficulties to incorporate regional scale feedbacks and processes responsible in part for the occurrence, intensity and duration of extreme events. Downscaling approaches, namely statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques (i.e. SD and RCM), have emerged as useful tools to develop high resolution climate change information, in particular for extremes, as those are theoretically more capable to take into account regional/local forcings and their feedbacks from large scale influences as they are driven with GCM synoptic variables. Nevertheless, in spite of the potential added values from downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical), a rigorous assessment of these methods are needed as inherent difficulties to simulate extremes are still present. In this paper, different series of RCM and SD simulations using three different GCMs are presented and evaluated with respect to observed values over the current period and over a river basin in southern Quebec, with future ensemble runs, i.e. centered over 2050s (i.e. 2041-2070 period using the SRES A2 emission scenario). Results suggest that the downscaling performance over the baseline period significantly varies between the two downscaling techniques and over various seasons with more regular reliable simulated values with SD technique for temperature than for RCM runs, while both approaches produced quite similar temperature changes in the future from median values with more divergence for extremes. For precipitation, less accurate information is obtained compared to observed data, and with more differences among models with higher uncertainties in the

Developing A Transdisciplinary Process and Community Partnerships to Anticipate Climate Change at the Local Level: The Role of Biophysical and Sociocultural Calendars

Science.gov (United States)

Kassam, K. A.; Samimi, C.; Trabucco, A.

2017-12-01

Difference is essential to solving the most complex problems faced by humanity. Anthropogenic climate change is one such "wicked problem" that demands cognitive diversity. Biophysical and social scientists must collaborate with scholars from the humanities to address practical issues of concern to local communities, which are at the forefront of impacts of climatic variation. As such, communities of inquirers (e.g. biophysical and social sciences, humanities) must work in tandem with communities of practice (e.g. farmers, fishers, gatherers, herders, hunters). This leads to co-generated knowledge where an adaptation strategy to climatic variation is locally grounded in the biophysical and sociocultural context of the communities where the impacts of climatic variation are most felt. We will present an innovative and `real time' example participatory and transdisciplinary research from an international project where we are developing integrated biophysical and sociocultural calendars, in short, ecological calendars, which are ecologically and culturally grounded in the local context to develop anticipatory capacity to anthropogenic climate change.

Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert

2015-01-01

Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution....... We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs...... at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient...

Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florian Zabel

Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

The relative roles of local climate adaptation and phylogeny in determining leaf-out timing of temperate tree species

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elsa Desnoues

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Background Leaf out times of temperate forest trees are a prominent determinant of global carbon dynamics throughout the year. Abiotic cues of leaf emergence are well studied but investigation of the relative roles of shared evolutionary history (phylogeny and local adaptation to climate in determining the species-level responses to these cues is needed to better apprehend the effect of global change on leaf emergence. We explored the relative importance of phylogeny and climate in determining the innate leaf out phenology across the temperate biome. Methods We used an extensive dataset of leaf-out dates of 1126 temperate woody species grown in eight Northern Hemisphere common gardens. For these species, information on the native climate and phylogenetic position was collected. Using linear regression analyses, we examine the relative effect of climate variables and phylogeny on leaf out variation among species. Results Climate variables explained twice as much variation in leaf out timing as phylogenetic information, a process that was driven primarily by the complex interactive effects of multiple climate variables. Although the primary climate factors explaining species-level variation in leaf-out timing varied drastically across different families, our analyses reveal that local adaptation plays a stronger role than common evolutionary history in determining tree phenology across the temperate biome. Conclusions In the long-term, the direct effects of physiological adaptation to abiotic effects of climate change on forest phenology are likely to outweigh the indirect effects mediated through changes in tree species composition.

Impacts of the Three Gorges Project on Local Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Z.; Liang, S.; Feng, L.

2015-12-01

Three Gorges Project (TGP) is the largest hydroelectric project in the world and has led to significant land cover changes in Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA). Since its construction the debates on its environmental and climatic impacts have never stopped, especially after the extreme drought and flood in Yangtze River Basin these years. TGP reached its final impounding water level in 2010. However, studies on systematically monitoring the long-term variations in surface and atmospheric parameters in TGRA are still lacking. In this study, three important surface parameters - surface albedo, land surface temperature (LST) and evapotranspiration (ET) and two climatic parameters - air temperature and precipitation were investigated from 2000 to 2013 by combining multiple remote sensing data and ground measurements. Results showed that along the reservoir albedo decreased significantly as a result of water impounding. Correspondingly, in the same region daytime LST decreased in spring and summer and nighttime LST increased in autumn and winter. In the western region of TGRA, albedo increased due to resettlement and LST also changed. The average ET increased by 20% in TGR but kept stable in the whole TGRA. In contrast to LST, air temperature showed less apparent spatial and temporal variability. Only in the region near the dam air temperature experienced a decrease at daytime and an increase at nighttime. Further analysis demonstrated precipitation revealed no apparent changes in TGRA and the precipitation anomaly in northwest of TGRA may not be connected with TGP. All of the findings provide a more substantial clues of local climate change caused by TGP.

Separating the role of biotic interactions and climate in determining adaptive response of plants to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomiolo, Sara; Van der Putten, Wim H; Tielbörger, Katja

2015-05-01

Altered rainfall regimes will greatly affect the response of plant species to climate change. However, little is known about how direct effects of changing precipitation on plant performance may depend on other abiotic factors and biotic interactions. We used reciprocal transplants between climatically very different sites with simultaneous manipulation of soil, plant population origin, and neighbor conditions to evaluate local adaptation and possible adaptive response of four Eastern Mediterranean annual plant species to climate change. The effect of site on plant performance was negligible, but soil origin had a strong effect on fecundity, most likely due to differential water retaining ability. Competition by neighbors strongly reduced fitness. We separated the effects of the abiotic and biotic soil properties on plant performance by repeating the field experiment in a greenhouse under homogenous environmental conditions and including a soil biota manipulation treatment. As in the field, plant performance differed among soil origins and neighbor treatments. Moreover, we found plant species-specific responses to soil biota that may be best explained by the differential sensitivity to negative and positive soil biota effects. Overall, under the conditions of our experiment with two contrasting sites, biotic interactions had a strong effect on plant fitness that interacted with and eventually overrode climate. Because climate and biotic interactions covary, reciprocal transplants and climate gradient studies should consider soil biotic interactions and abiotic conditions when evaluating climate change effects on plant performance.

Sustainability Challenges from Climate Change and Air Conditioning Use in Urban Areas

OpenAIRE

Lundgren, Karin; Kjellström, Tord

2013-01-01

Global climate change increases heat loads in urban areas causing health and productivity risks for millions of people. Inhabitants in tropical and subtropical urban areas are at especial risk due to high population density, already high temperatures, and temperature increases due to climate change. Air conditioning is growing rapidly, especially in South and South-East Asia due to income growth and the need to protect from high heat exposures. Studies have linked increased total hourly elect...

Using crowdsourced data from citizen weather stations to analyse air temperature in 'local climate zones' in Berlin, Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Fenner, Daniel; Meier, Fred; Bechtel, Benjamin; Otto, Marco; Scherer, Dieter

2017-04-01

Provision of observational data with high spatial coverage over extended time periods still remains as one of the biggest challenges in urban climate research. Classical meteorological networks are seldomly designed to monitor atmospheric conditions in a broad variety of urban environments, though the heterogeneity of urban structures leads to distinct thermal characteristics on local scales, i.e., hundreds of metres to several kilometres. One approach to overcome the aforementioned challenges of observation networks is to use data from weather stations that are maintained by citizens. The private company 'netatmo' (www.netatmo.com) produces and distributes such citizen weather stations (CWS) around the world. The stations automatically send their data to the netatmo server, and the user decides if data are publicly shared. Shared data can freely be retrieved via an application programming interface. We collected air temperature (T) data for the year 2015 for the city of Berlin, Germany, and surroundings with more than 1500 'netatmo' CWS in the study area. The entire data set was thoroughly quality checked, and filter techniques, involving data from a reference network, were developed to address different types of errors associated with CWS data. Additionally, the accuracy of 'netatmo' CWS was checked in a climate chamber and in a long-term field experiment. Since the terms 'urban' and 'rural' are ambiguous in urban climate studies, Stewart and Oke (2012) developed the 'local climate zone' (LCZ) concept to enhance understanding and interpretation of air temperature differences in urban regions. LCZ classification for the study region was conducted using the 'WUDAPT' approach by Bechtel et al. (2015). The quality-checked CWS data were used to analyse T characteristics of LCZ classes in Berlin and surroundings. Specifically, we analysed how LCZ classes are represented by CWS in 2015, how T varies within each LCZ class ('intra-LCZ variability'), and if significant

Future local and remote influences on Mediterranean ozone air quality and climate forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Steve; Martin, Maria Val; Emmons, Louisa; Rap, Alex; Heald, Colette; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone

2013-04-01

The Mediterranean region is expected to display large increases in population over the coming decades, and to exhibit strong sensitivity to projected climate change, with increasing frequency of extreme summer temperatures and decreases in precipitation. Understanding of how these changes will affect atmospheric composition in the region is limited. The eastern Mediterranean basin has been shown to exhibit a pronounced summertime local maximum in tropospheric ozone, which impacts both local air quality and the atmospheric radiation balance. In summer, the region is subject to import of pollution from Northern Europe in the boundary layer and lower troposphere, from North American sources in the large-scale westerly flow of the free mid and upper-troposphere, as well as import of pollution lofted in the Asian monsoon and carried west to the eastern Mediterranean in anticyclonic flow in the upper troposphere over north Africa. In addition, interactions with the land-surface through biogenic emission sources and dry deposition play important roles in the Mediterranean ozone budget. Here we use the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate how tropospheric ozone in the Mediterranean region responds to climate, land surface and global emissions changes between present day and 2050. We simulate climate and atmospheric composition for the year 2050, based on greenhouse gas abundances, trace gas and aerosol emissions and land cover and use from two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5), designed for use by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) experiments in support of the IPCC. By comparing these simulations with a present-day scenario, we investigate the effects of predicted changes in climate and emissions on air quality and climate forcing over the Mediterranean region. The simulations suggest decreases in boundary layer ozone and sulfate aerosol throughout the tropospheric column over the Mediterranean

Optimization of Photovoltaic Electrolyzer Hybrid systems; taking into account the effect of climate conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sayedin, Farid; Maroufmashat, Azadeh; Sattari, Sourena; Elkamel, Ali; Fowler, Michael

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The optimal size of directly coupled Photovoltaic–Electrolyzer (PV/EL) is studied. • The effect of climate condition on the performance of PV/EL is studied. • PV/EL energy transfer loss and the levelized cost of hydrogen production minimized. • The model is applied to locations with different climate and solar irradiations. • Solar to electricity/electricity to hydrogen/solar to hydrogen efficiencies are derived. - Abstract: Solar energy will make a valuable contribution for power generation in the future. However the intermittency of solar energy has become an important issue in the utilization of PV system, especially small scale distributed solar energy conversion systems. The issue can be addressed through the management of production and storage of the energy in the form of hydrogen. The hydrogen can be produced by solar photovoltaic (PV) powered electrolysis of water. The amount of transferred energy to an electrolyzer from a PV module is a function of the distance between maximum power points (MPP) of PV module and the electrolyzer operating points. The distance can be minimized by optimizing the number of series and parallel units of the electrolyzer. However the maximum power points are subject to PV module characteristics, solar irradiation and ambient temperature. This means the climate condition can substantially influence the MPP and therefore the optimal size of the PV–Electrolyzer (PV/EL) system. On the other hand, system size can affect the levelized cost of hydrogen production as well. In this paper, the impact of climate conditions on the optimal size and operating conditions of a direct coupled photovoltaic–electrolyzer system has been studied. For this purpose, the optimal size of electrolyzer for six cities which have different climate condition is obtained by considering two solution scenarios, regarding two objectives which are annual energy transfer loss and levelized costs of hydrogen production and then the

Local environmental conditions and the stability of protective layers on steel surfaces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, J P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Bursik, A

1996-12-01

Local environmental conditions determine whether the protective layers on steel surfaces are stable. With unfavorable local environmental conditions, the protective layers may be subject to damage. Taking the cation conductivity of all plant cycle streams <0.2 {mu}S/cm for granted, an adequate feed-water and - if applicable - boiler water conditioning is required to prevent such damage. Even if the mentioned conditions are met in a bulk, the local environmental conditions may be inadequate. The reasons for this may be the disregarding of interactions among material, design, and chemistry. The paper presents many possible mechanisms of protective layer damage that are directly influenced or exacerbated by plant cycle chemistry. Two items are discussed in more detail: First, the application of all volatile treatment for boiler water conditioning of drum boiler systems operating at low pressures and, second, the chemistry in the transition zone water/steam in the low pressure turbine. The latter is of major interest for the understanding and prevention of corrosion due to high concentration of impurities in the aqueous liquid phases. This is a typical example showing that local environmental conditions may fundamentally differ from the overall bulk chemistry. (au) 19 refs.

Assessing local and regional economic impacts of climatic extremes and feasibility of adaptation measures in Dutch arable farming systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Diogo, V.; Reidsma, P.; Schaap, B.; Andree, B. P.J.; Koomen, E.

2017-01-01

We propose a method that combines local productivity factors, economic factors, crop-specific sensitivity to climatic extremes, and future climate change scenarios, to assess potential impacts of extreme weather events on agricultural production systems. Our assessment is spatially explicit and uses

Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination.

Science.gov (United States)

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Soble, Adam; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Mkhonta, Nomcebo; Seyama, Eric; Mthethwa, Steven; Pindolia, Deepa; Kunene, Simon

2017-06-01

Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland's National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry

2018-05-01

Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.

Research on suitable heating conditions during local PWHT. Pt. 1. Influence of heating conditions on temperature distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Jinkichi; Horii, Yukihiko; Sato, Masanobu; Murakawa, Hidekazu; Wang Jianhua

1999-01-01

To improve weld joint properties a heat treatment so called post weld heat treatment (PWHT) is often implemented for steel weldment. Generally, the PWHT is conducted in a furnace at a factory. But in site welds such as the girth joint of pipe, a local PWHT is applied using electric heater and so on. In the local PWHT steep temperature gradient occurs depending on the heating condition and it leads to rise of the thermal stress in addition to the welding residual stress. However, heating condition is not always defined the same in some standards. Therefore, suitable heat conditions for the local PWHT were studied supposing the power plant and so on experimentally and theoretically. Temperature distribution and thermal strains under different heating conditions were measured during the local PWHT using carbon steel pipes of 340 mm in diameter and 53 mm in wall thickness. The temperature gradient, thermal strain were also analyzed using Finite Element Method (FEM) as axis-symmetric model. Further, the influences of pipe size and heat transfer coefficient on the temperature distribution were analyzed and suitable heating source widths for various pipe sizes were proposed from the viewpoint of temperature distribution. (orig.)

Modelling Danish local CHP on market conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravn, Hans V.; Riisom, Jannik; Schaumburg-Müller, Camilla

2004-01-01

with the liberalisation process of the energy sectors of the EU countries, it is however anticipated that Danish local CHP are to begin operating on market conditions within the year 2005. This means that the income that the local CHPs previously gained from selling electricity at the feed-in tariff is replaced in part...... the consequences of acting in a liberalised market for a given CHP plant, based on the abovementioned bottom-up model. The key assumption determining the bottom line is the electricity spot price. The formation of the spot price in the Nordic area depends heavily upon the state of the water reservoirs in Norway...

Performance Based Evaluation of Concrete Strength under Various Curing Conditions to Investigate Climate Change Effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tae-Kyun Kim

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recently, the manifestation of global warming-induced climate change has been observed through super typhoons, heavy snowfalls, torrential rains, and extended heat waves. These climate changes have been occurring all over the world and natural disasters have caused severe damage and deterioration of concrete structures and infrastructure. In an effort to deal with these problems due to extreme and abnormal climate changes, studies have been conducted to develop construction technologies and design guidelines. Nevertheless, study results applicable to construction sites continue to be ineffective and insufficient. Therefore, this study proposes ways to cope with climate change by considering the effect of concrete curing condition variations on concrete material performance. More specifically, the 3-, 7- and 28-day compressive and split tensile strength properties of concrete mix cured under various climatic factors including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunlight exposure time were evaluated to determine whether the concrete meets the current design requirements. Thereafter, a performance based evaluation (PBE was performed using satisfaction probabilities based on the test values to understand the problems associated with the current mix proportion design practice and to identify countermeasures to deal with climate change-induced curing conditions.

How the Alliance for Climate Education engages national and local partners to achieve collective impact in climate literacy and action (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Lappe, M.; Gonzalez, R.; Shanley Hope, S.

2013-12-01

The Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) has a mission to educate and inspire young people to break through the challenge of climate change. ACE believes that achieving a safe and stable climate in our lifetime requires the ideas, action and influence of young people. Since 2009, ACE has reached almost 2 million teens in 2,200 schools in over 20 states across the US. In order to support these young people to become leaders in their schools and communities, ACE works closely with local and national partners. In this presentation, ACE will discuss strategic partnerships that have yielded measurable impact and explore how nonprofits, universities, school districts, private companies and government agencies can more effectively align efforts to achieve shared goals. Examples of successful partnerships discussed will include PG&E, Chicago Public Schools, Monterey Bay Aquarium, DC Public Schools, the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network, NOAA, The Next Generation, Los Angeles Public Schools and research universities. ACE will also discuss how research in the field of transformational leadership informs our partnership strategy.

Assessment of tourism and recreation destinations under climate change conditions in Austria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matzarakis, Andreas; Haemmerle, Martin [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Endler, Christina [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Research Center Human Biometeorology, Freiburg (Germany). German Weather Service; Muthers, Stefan [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research; Koch, Elisabeth [Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamcis, Vienna (Austria)

2012-04-15

Tourism and recreation are important economic factors which are directly connected to weather and climate of a specific destination. Based on the observation network of the Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics of Austria (ZAMG), data of 37 stations has been collected and analysed for tourism and recreation purposes. The analysis was based on long term data sets which were processed in relevant ways for tourism and recreation, resulting in frequency diagrams of Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and precipitation. Additionally, we prepared the results according to the demands of tourism and recreation authorities and industry using the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Applying data from the regional climate models REMO and CLM we can provide information on future climate conditions in Austria's recreation areas. We chose two different time slices (2021-2050, 2071-2100) and IPCC emission scenarios (A1B, B1). The data was processed based on the threshold factors which are included in the CTIS (e.g. thermal comfort, heat stress, cold stress, sunshine, etc.). For the time slice 2021-2050 only moderate changes can be expected. But for 2071-2100 one can observe a distinct decrease of cold stress and the skiing potential. On the other hand, moderate increases of thermal comfort, heat stress, sultriness and sunshine are expected. No tendencies can be seen in precipitation and wind conditions. (orig.)

The idiosyncrasies of streams: local variability mitigates vulnerability of trout to changing conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Andrea Watts; Brooke Penaluna; Jason Dunham

2016-01-01

Land use and climate change are two key factors with the potential to affect stream conditions and fish habitat. Since the 1950s, Washington and Oregon have required forest practices designed to mitigate the effects of timber harvest on streams and fish. Yet questions remain about the extent to which these practices are effective. Add in the effects of climate change—...

The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Z. Li

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d₁ and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment. A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wratt, D.; Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Allan, S.; Morgan, T.; Kenny, G.

2004-05-01

Climate change is a real and internationally recognised outcome of increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It will have effects over the next decades that are predictable with some level of certainty, but which will vary from place to place throughout New Zealand. The climate will also change from year to year and decade to decade due to natural processes. For example, some parts of the country often have dry summers and autumns when an El Nino climate pattern is present. Both natural fluctuations and human-induced climate changes need to be considered when developing adaptation plans and policies, rather than just 'greenhouse warming' effects on their own. Councils already address extreme weather events and climate variations as they develop plans and provide services. Climate change effects need also to be considered as part of these regulatory, assessment and planning activities. It is not necessary to develop a set of procedures for dealing separately with effects and impacts of climate change - they can be built into existing practices. Over time, climate change responses will involve iterative planning processes, keeping up-to-date with new information, monitoring changes, and reviewing the effectiveness of responses. The response to climate change involves international, national, regional, district and community consideration and action. The Guidance Manual aims to assist local government in working with its communities and making appropriate decisions.

Using ESRI Story Maps for Engaging Tribal Youth in Localized Climate Education

Science.gov (United States)

Masters, E. L.; Marsik, F. J.; Sonderegger, C.

2017-12-01

A critical step in any climate adaptation initiative is the engagement of the community through educational outreach about the impacts of climate change on vulnerable economic, infrastructure and natural resources within the community. For Tribal communities, such outreach must also highlight connections between these vulnerable assets, such as natural resources, and Tribal cultural practices. For adult members of these communities, the combination of traditional ecological knowledge and western science approaches can prove effective in this regard. For Tribal youth, the often complex and data-heavy nature of western science approaches may prove to be more of an obstacle than an aid in communicating the impacts of our changing climate on their local Tribal community. A collaborative educational effort between the Grand Traverse Band of Ottawa and Chippewa Indians (Peshawbestown, MI) and the University of Michigan seeks to lean upon the rich tradition of storytelling as a method of conveying information to younger generations. The ESRI Story Maps platform provides such a tool through its combined use of narratives, images, maps, and data. The ability to make a Story Map deep and complex, or simple and fun, makes this application ideal for communicating with a range of people, from school-age children to adults. For our project, we created two Story Maps with different complexity levels, with one for elementary to middle school students, and the other targeted at high school students. The project for younger children was aimed at engaging viewers through a series of images and maps, introducing them to the basics of what wetlands are, which types of wetlands can be found locally, Indigenous cultural connections to wetlands, and how to protect wetlands. The more complex project provided a more expansive discussion of these same topics, including threats to these wetlands from human activities, including climate change, as well as an extensive list of references and a

Tailoring the visual communication of climate projections for local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorenz, Susanne; Dessai, Suraje; Forster, Piers M; Paavola, Jouni

2015-11-28

Visualizations are widely used in the communication of climate projections. However, their effectiveness has rarely been assessed among their target audience. Given recent calls to increase the usability of climate information through the tailoring of climate projections, it is imperative to assess the effectiveness of different visualizations. This paper explores the complexities of tailoring through an online survey conducted with 162 local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK. The survey examined respondents' assessed and perceived comprehension (PC) of visual representations of climate projections as well as preferences for using different visualizations in communicating and planning for a changing climate. Comprehension and use are tested using four different graph formats, which are split into two pairs. Within each pair the information content is the same but is visualized differently. We show that even within a fairly homogeneous user group, such as local adaptation practitioners, there are clear differences in respondents' comprehension of and preference for visualizations. We do not find a consistent association between assessed comprehension and PC or use within the two pairs of visualizations that we analysed. There is, however, a clear link between PC and use of graph format. This suggests that respondents use what they think they understand the best, rather than what they actually understand the best. These findings highlight that audience-specific targeted communication may be more complex and challenging than previously recognized. © 2015 The Authors.

Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

2012-04-01

The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selsted, Merete Bang

on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase...... carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO2. The methodology of static chamber CO2 flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) facility is a challenge...... on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the CO2 soil-atmosphere gradient....

Civil protection and climate change impacts in the Netherlands: Local risk perceptions and actions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Berg, Maya Marieke; Coenen, Franciscus H.J.M.

2010-01-01

Being a delta, one third of the Dutch territory consists of flood-prone areas. This article discusses how the local civil protection system in the Netherlands responds to increasing climate change-induced flooding risks in terms of risk perception and action. Case studies on three Safety Regions are

Using Online Dialogues to Connect Local Leaders and Climate Experts: Methods, Feedback and Lessons Learned from the Resilience Dialogues

Science.gov (United States)

Goodwin, M.; Pandya, R.; Weaver, C. P.; Zerbonne, S.; Bennett, N.; Spangler, B.

2017-12-01

Inclusive, multi-stakeholder dialogue, participatory planning and actionable science are necessary for just and effective climate resilience outcomes. How can we support that in practice? The Resilience Dialogues launched a public Beta in 2016-2017 to allow scientists and resilience practitioners to engage with local leaders from 10 communities around the US through a series of facilitated, online dialogues. We developed two, one-week dialogues for each community: one to consider ways to respond to observed and anticipated climate impacts through a resilience lens, and one to identify next steps and resources to advance key priorities. We divided the communities into three cohorts and refined the structure and facilitation strategy for these dialogues from one to the next based on participant feedback. This adaptive method helped participants engage in the dialogues more effectively and develop useful results. We distributed a survey to all participants following each cohort to capture feedback on the use and utility of the dialogues. While there was room for improvement in the program's technical interface, survey participants valued the dialogues and the opportunity to engage as equals. Local leaders said the dialogues helped identify new local pathways to approach resilience priorities. They felt they benefited from focused conversation and personalized introductions to best-matched resources. Practitioners learned how local leaders seek to apply climate science, and how to effectively communicate their expertise to community leaders in support of local planning efforts. We learned there is demand for specialized dialogues on issues like communication, financing and extreme weather. Overall, the desire of participants to continue to engage through this program, and others to enter, indicates that facilitated, open conversations between experts and local leaders can break down communication and access barriers between climate services providers and end

Conditions for a market uptake of climate services for adaptation in France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romain Cavelier

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This perspective paper reports the results of a collaborative survey of French research institutes concerned with environmental issues, which examined the potential for a market uptake of climate services for adaptation in France. The study is based on a review of existing reports on the market of climate services, and on interviews of 68 climate service providers and users in public and private organizations. Although the study does not allow to provide quantified estimations regarding the present and future size of the market, its results offer new perspectives with implications extending far beyond the sole case of France: first, while the market is still in its infancy, significant opportunities exist in sectors such as flooding risks, and, to a slightly lesser extent, hydro and nuclear energy and viticulture. In addition, the study identifies critical conditions for the uptake in climate services: (1 a coordinated delivery of data, information, expertise and training by public research institutes concerned with climate change and its impacts; (2 the inclusion of adaptation in the regulation and in public and private tenders. Finally, (3 uncertainties in climate projections appear as a major barrier to the uptake of climate services. However, ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction as planned by the COP-21 Paris Agreement contribute to reducing this uncertainties by allowing users to select a subset of climate change projections, avoiding those for which adaptation is most problematic.

Local governments and climate change: sustainable energy planning and implementation in small and medium sized communities

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Van Staden, Maryke; Musco, Francesco

2010-01-01

...) motivations and actions. The most effective responses are those with a holistic, integrated and lon-term approach, addressing both climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on citizen and other local stakeholder involvement...

Automatically Maintain Climatic Conditions inside Agricultural Greenhouses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Jasim Ramadhan

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In this work, a novel system is designed to remote monitor / automatic control of the temperature, humidity and soil moisture of the agricultural greenhouses. In the proposed system, the author used the mentioned sensors for monitoring the climatic conditions of the agricultural greenhouses; and the system makes a controlling process to fix the required parameters for plant growth by running / stopping the fan, air exchanger and irrigation devices when any changes happened in these parameters. The presented system is based on XBee protocol in the implemented wireless sensor star topology network (WSN to monitor the agricultural greenhouses in real time, and used the GSM and Internet technologies to monitor the agricultural greenhouses from anywhere.

Smart Control of Air Climatization System in Function on the Values of Mean Local Radiant Temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe Cannistraro

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The hygrothermal comfort indoor conditions are defined as: those environmental conditions in which an individual exposed, expresses a state of satisfaction. These conditions cannot always be achieved anywhere in an optimal way and economically; in some cases they can be obtained only in work environments specific areas. This could be explained because of air conditioning systems designing is generally performed both on the basis of the fundamental parameters’ average values, such as temperature, velocity and relative humidity (Ta, va e φa and derived parameters such as operating temperature and mean radiant one (Top eTmr. However, in some specific cases - large open-spaces or in case of radiating surfaces - the descriptors defining indoor comfort conditions, based on average values, do not provide the optimum values required during the air conditioning systems design phase. This is largely due to the variability of real environmental parameters values compared to the average ones taken as input in the calculation. The results obtained in previous scientific papers on the thermal comfort have been the driving element of this work. It offers a simple, original and clever way of thinking about the new domotic systems for air conditioning, based on the “local mean radiant temperature.” This is a very important parameter when one wants to analyze comfort in environments characterized by the presence of radiating surfaces, as will be seen hereinafter. In order to take into account the effects of radiative exchanges in the open-space workplace, where any occupant may find themselves in different temperature and humidity conditions, this paper proposes an action on the domotic climate control, with ducts and vents air distribution placed in different zones. Comparisons were performed between the parameters values representing the punctual thermal comfort, with the Predicted Mean Vote PMV, in an environment marked by radiating surfaces (i

Long-term sustainability of the landscape in new climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Kubeckova, D.; Krocova, S.

2017-10-01

The long-term sustainability of the landscape and its natural environment must be the decisive task of the public administration and, in the wider concept, of every citizen. In new climatic conditions, this need has intensified. The following article suggests in a basic scope whether the above-mentioned task can be accomplished, and what means of solution should be used.

Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isaac, Morna; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

2009-01-01

In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000-2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO 2 emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO 2 emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change

Biocrust spectral response as affected by changing climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Guirado, Emilio; Escribano, Paula; Reyes, Andres; Weber, Bettina

2017-04-01

Drylands are characterized by scarce vegetation coverage and low rates of biological activity, both constrained by water scarcity. Under these conditions, biocrusts form key players of ecosystem functioning. They comprise complex poikilohydric communities of cyanobacteria, algae, lichens and bryophytes together with heterotrophic bacteria, archaea and fungi, which cover the uppermost soil layer. Biocrusts can cope with prolonged phases of drought, being rapidly re-activated when water becomes available again. Upon reactivation, biocrusts almost immediately turn green, fixing atmospheric carbon and nitrogen and increasing ecosystem productivity. However, due to their inconspicuous growth they have only rarely been analysed and spatially and temporally continuous information on their response to water pulses is missing. These data are particularly important under changing climatic conditions predicting an increase in aridity and variations in precipitation patterns within most of the dryland regions. In the present study, we used multi-temporal series of NDVI obtained from LANDSAT images to analyze biocrust and vegetation response to water pulses within the South African Succulent Karoo and we predicted their future response under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that biocrust and vegetation greenness are controlled by aridity, solar radiation and soil water content, showing similar annual patterns, with minimum values during dry periods that increased within the rainy season and decreased again after the onset of drought. However, biocrusts responded faster to water availability and turned green almost immediately after small rains, producing a small NDVI peak only few days after rainfall, whereas more time was needed for vegetation to grow new green tissue. However, once the photosynthetic tissue of vegetation was restored, it caused the highest increase of NDVI values after the rain. Predicted changes in precipitation patterns and aridity

Prediction and analysis of the underground climatic conditions and their cause in deep mechanized Canadian metal mines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kocsis, C.; Hardcastle, S.G. [Natural Resources Canada, Sudbury, ON (Canada). CANMET Mining and Mineral Sciences Laboratories

2010-07-01

As mines in Canada become deeper, there is a growing need to prevent worker heat exposure. The cost of ventilation and refrigeration to control heat exposure in deep mines may be one of the key factors that determines whether existing mines can continue to be economic. Appropriate design of primary and auxiliary ventilation systems is important in order to eliminate unnecessary capital investment and increased operating costs. This paper presented the findings of a background study performed by CANMET Mining and Mineral Sciences Laboratories in which a generic climate model was used to predict the working conditions in a deep Canadian mine. The study examined the relative importance of the various heat sources/sinks and energy changes that occur as air descends 3,000 m into the mine and then travels to the working areas. The study showed that local factors influence actual workplace conditions more than increased depth. 6 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

Effects of local and large-scale climate patterns on estuarine resident fishes: The example of Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus

Science.gov (United States)

Nyitrai, Daniel; Martinho, Filipe; Dolbeth, Marina; Rito, João; Pardal, Miguel A.

2013-12-01

Large-scale and local climate patterns are known to influence several aspects of the life cycle of marine fish. In this paper, we used a 9-year database (2003-2011) to analyse the populations of two estuarine resident fishes, Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus, in order to determine their relationships with varying environmental stressors operating over local and large scales. This study was performed in the Mondego estuary, Portugal. Firstly, the variations in abundance, growth, population structure and secondary production were evaluated. These species appeared in high densities in the beginning of the study period, with subsequent occasional high annual density peaks, while their secondary production was lower in dry years. The relationships between yearly fish abundance and the environmental variables were evaluated separately for both species using Spearman correlation analysis, considering the yearly abundance peaks for the whole population, juveniles and adults. Among the local climate patterns, precipitation, river runoff, salinity and temperature were used in the analyses, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and sea surface temperature (SST) were tested as large-scale factors. For P. microps, precipitation and NAO were the significant factors explaining abundance of the whole population, the adults and the juveniles as well. Regarding P. minutus, for the whole population, juveniles and adults river runoff was the significant predictor. The results for both species suggest a differential influence of climate patterns on the various life cycle stages, confirming also the importance of estuarine resident fishes as indicators of changes in local and large-scale climate patterns, related to global climate change.

Climate, migration, and the local food security context: Introducing Terra Populus

Science.gov (United States)

Schlak, Allison M.; Kugler, Tracy A.

2016-01-01

Studies investigating the connection between environmental factors and migration are difficult to execute because they require the integration of microdata and spatial information. In this article, we introduce the novel, publically available data extraction system Terra Populus (TerraPop), which was designed to facilitate population-environment studies. We showcase the use of TerraPop by exploring variations in the climate-migration association in Burkina Faso and Senegal based on differences in the local food security context. Food security was approximated using anthropometric indicators of child stunting and wasting derived from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and linked to the TerraPop extract of climate and migration information. We find that an increase in heat waves was associated with a decrease in international migration from Burkina Faso, while excessive precipitation increased international moves from Senegal. Significant interactions reveal that the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts are strongly amplified in highly food insecure Senegalese departments. PMID:27974863

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

Study of Climate Responsive Passive Design Features in Traditional Hill Architecture of Khyah Village in Hamirpur, Himachal Pradesh, India for Indoor Thermal Comfort

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkar, A.

2013-03-01

Vernacular architecture of any settlement is characterized by architecture and construction methods developed by the wisdom of the local masons and builders, often the inhabitants themselves, to provide thermal comfort to users in extreme outdoor uncomfortable climatic conditions, by using locally available building materials and by adopting construction technology which both were more responsive to their climatic and geographic condition. This paper will highlight the climate-responsiveness in the traditional architecture of Khyah village in Hamirpur district of Himachal Pradesh, having sub-tropical climatic condition. The plan of individual house, the cluster of houses and the overall settlement itself has been evolved from a process of understanding the local geo-climatic conditions which causes discomfort in both cold winter and hot summer months. Hence, the house plans were kept compact, thick adobe bricks were used for walls, pitched roof with attic and roof-covering of slate were employed and small window openings were provided with heavy timber shutter—all as a mean to retain indoor heat during cold winter months and also to prevent excessive heat-loss and heat-gains. The paper will also attempt to bring out the adaptive synchronized dynamic interactions between the various activities of inhabitants and their spatial environment, as a response to the local climatic conditions, from the physical survey of this traditional hill settlement.

Simple greenhouse climate model as a design tool for greenhouses in tropical lowland

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Impron, I.; Hemming-Hoffmann, S.; Bot, G.P.A.

2007-01-01

Six prototypes plastic greenhouses were built in the tropical lowlands of Indonesia. The geometrical dimensions were designed using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) by taking local climate parameters as static reference boundary conditions. It is necessary to evaluate the climate dynamics inside

Implications of climate and outdoor thermal comfort on tourism: the case of Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Salata, Ferdinando; Golasi, Iacopo; Proietti, Riccardo; de Lieto Vollaro, Andrea

2017-12-01

Whether a journey is pleasant or not usually depends on the climatic conditions which permit to perform outdoor activities. The perception of climatic conditions, determined by physiological and psychological factors, can vary according to different adaptation phenomena related to the person involved and the weather conditions of the place where they live. Studying the bioclimatology of a country characterized by a high flux of tourism, as e.g. Italy, can provide some important information about where and when is it better to visit a place. Some differences have to be specified though, like the local tourism, which is used to that type of climate, and international tourism, which is formed by people coming from countries with different types of climates. Therefore this paper examined the climatic conditions and outdoor thermal comfort through the Mediterranean Outdoor Comfort Index (MOCI) for local tourism and through the predicted mean vote (PMV) for international tourism. The cities examined were three (Venice, Rome and Palermo located in the North, Centre and South of Italy, respectively), where average information were collected every week for an entire year. Finally, a map of the entire Italian territory reporting the seasonal average values of these indexes was also reported.

Implications of climate and outdoor thermal comfort on tourism: the case of Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Salata, Ferdinando; Golasi, Iacopo; Proietti, Riccardo; de Lieto Vollaro, Andrea

2017-12-01

Whether a journey is pleasant or not usually depends on the climatic conditions which permit to perform outdoor activities. The perception of climatic conditions, determined by physiological and psychological factors, can vary according to different adaptation phenomena related to the person involved and the weather conditions of the place where they live. Studying the bioclimatology of a country characterized by a high flux of tourism, as e.g. Italy, can provide some important information about where and when is it better to visit a place. Some differences have to be specified though, like the local tourism, which is used to that type of climate, and international tourism, which is formed by people coming from countries with different types of climates. Therefore this paper examined the climatic conditions and outdoor thermal comfort through the Mediterranean Outdoor Comfort Index (MOCI) for local tourism and through the predicted mean vote (PMV) for international tourism. The cities examined were three (Venice, Rome and Palermo located in the North, Centre and South of Italy, respectively), where average information were collected every week for an entire year. Finally, a map of the entire Italian territory reporting the seasonal average values of these indexes was also reported.

Climate change impacts on coral reefs: synergies with local effects, possibilities for acclimation, and management implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu; Feary, David A; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Chen, Allen; Schleyer, Michael H; Sheppard, Charles R C

2013-09-30

Most reviews concerning the impact of climate change on coral reefs discuss independent effects of warming or ocean acidification. However, the interactions between these, and between these and direct local stressors are less well addressed. This review underlines that coral bleaching, acidification, and diseases are expected to interact synergistically, and will negatively influence survival, growth, reproduction, larval development, settlement, and post-settlement development of corals. Interactions with local stress factors such as pollution, sedimentation, and overfishing are further expected to compound effects of climate change. Reduced coral cover and species composition following coral bleaching events affect coral reef fish community structure, with variable outcomes depending on their habitat dependence and trophic specialisation. Ocean acidification itself impacts fish mainly indirectly through disruption of predation- and habitat-associated behavior changes. Zooxanthellate octocorals on reefs are often overlooked but are substantial occupiers of space; these also are highly susceptible to bleaching but because they tend to be more heterotrophic, climate change impacts mainly manifest in terms of changes in species composition and population structure. Non-calcifying macroalgae are expected to respond positively to ocean acidification and promote microbe-induced coral mortality via the release of dissolved compounds, thus intensifying phase-shifts from coral to macroalgal domination. Adaptation of corals to these consequences of CO2 rise through increased tolerance of corals and successful mutualistic associations between corals and zooxanthellae is likely to be insufficient to match the rate and frequency of the projected changes. Impacts are interactive and magnified, and because there is a limited capacity for corals to adapt to climate change, global targets of carbon emission reductions are insufficient for coral reefs, so lower targets should be

The effect of climate and soil conditions on tree species turnover in a Tropical Montane Cloud Forest in Costa Rica.

Science.gov (United States)

Häger, Achim

2010-12-01

On a global level, Tropical Montane Cloud Forests constitute important centers of vascular plant diversity. Tree species turnover along environmental gradients plays an important role in larger scale diversity patterns in tropical mountains. This study aims to estimate the magnitude of beta diversity across the Tilardn mountain range in North-Western Costa Rica, and to elucidate the impact of climate and soil conditions on tree species turnover at a local scale. Seven climate stations measuring rainfall, horizontal precipitation (clouds and wind-driven rain) and temperatures were installed along a 2.5km transect ranging from 1200 m.a.s.l. on the Atlantic to 1200 m.a.s.l. on the Pacific slope. The ridge top climate station was located at 1500 m.a.s.l. Climate data were recorded from March through December 2003. Additionally, seven 0.05 ha plots were established. On all plots soil moisture was monitored for one year, furthermore soil type and soil chemistry were assessed. Woody plants with a diameter at breast height (dbh) > or = 5 cm were identified to species. Species' distributions were explored by feeding pairwise Serensen measures between plots into a Principal Component Analysis. Relationships between floristic similarity and environmental variables were analyzed using Mantel tests. Pronounced gradients in horizontal precipitation, temperatures and soil conditions were found across the transect. In total, 483 woody plants were identified, belonging to 132 species. Environmental gradients were paralleled by tree species turnover; the plots could be divided in three distinctive floristic units which reflected different topographic positions on the transect (lower slopes, mid slopes and ridge). Most notably there was a complete species turnover between the ridge and the lower Pacific slope. Floristic similarity was negatively correlated with differences in elevation, horizontal precipitation, temperatures and soil conditions between plots. It is suggested that

Ocean climate and seal condition

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Crocker Daniel E

2005-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The condition of many marine mammals varies with fluctuations in productivity and food supply in the ocean basin where they forage. Prey is impacted by physical environmental variables such as cyclic warming trends. The weaning weight of northern elephant seal pups, Mirounga angustirostris, being closely linked to maternal condition, indirectly reflects prey availability and foraging success of pregnant females in deep waters of the northeastern Pacific. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of ocean climate on foraging success in this deep-diving marine mammal over the course of three decades, using cohort weaning weight as the principal metric of successful resource accrual. Results The mean annual weaning weight of pups declined from 1975 to the late 1990s, a period characterized by a large-scale, basin-wide warm decadal regime that included multiple strong or long-duration El Niños; and increased with a return to a cool decadal regime from about 1999 to 2004. Increased foraging effort and decreased mass gain of adult females, indicative of reduced foraging success and nutritional stress, were associated with high ocean temperatures. Conclusion Despite ranging widely and foraging deeply in cold waters beyond coastal thermoclines in the northeastern Pacific, elephant seals are impacted significantly by ocean thermal dynamics. Ocean warming redistributes prey decreasing foraging success of females, which in turn leads to lower weaning mass of pups. Annual fluctuations in weaning mass, in turn, reflect the foraging success of females during the year prior to giving birth and signals changes in ocean temperature cycles.

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

McDermott, T. K. J.; Surminski, S.

2018-06-01

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting `acceptable risk levels' and identifying `adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland.

Science.gov (United States)

McDermott, T K J; Surminski, S

2018-06-13

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting 'acceptable risk levels' and identifying 'adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of

Generating relevant climate adaptation science tools in concert with local natural resource agencies

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Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Veloz, S.; Heller, N. E.

2015-12-01

To create a framework for adapting to climate change, decision makers operating at the urban-wildland interface need to define climate vulnerabilities in the context of site-specific opportunities and constraints relative to water supply, land use suitability, wildfire risks, ecosystem services and quality of life. Pepperwood's TBC3.org is crafting customized climate vulnerability assessments with selected water and natural resource agencies of California's Sonoma, Marin, Napa and Mendocino counties under the auspices of Climate Ready North Bay, a public-private partnership funded by the California Coastal Conservancy. Working directly with managers from the very start of the process to define resource-specific information needs, we are developing high-resolution, spatially-explicit data products to help local governments and agency staff implement informed and effective climate adaptation strategies. Key preliminary findings for the region using the USGS' Basin Characterization Model (at a 270 m spatial resolution) include a unidirectional trend, independent of greater or lesser precipitation, towards increasing climatic water deficits across model scenarios. Therefore a key message is that managers will be facing an increasingly arid environment. Companion models translate the impacts of shifting climate and hydrology on vegetation composition and fire risks. The combination of drought stress on water supplies and native vegetation with an approximate doubling of fire risks may demand new approaches to watershed planning. Working with agencies we are exploring how to build capacity for protection and enhancement of key watershed functions with a focus on groundwater recharge, facilitating greater drought tolerance in forest and rangeland systems, and considering more aggressive approaches to management of fuel loads. Lessons learned about effective engagement include the need for extended in-depth dialog, translation of key climate adaptation questions into

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

Science.gov (United States)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

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Smirnov, D A; Breitenbach, S F M; Feulner, G; Lechleitner, F A; Prufer, K M; Baldini, J U L; Marwan, N; Kurths, J

2017-09-11

Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.

Implementing Local Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Actions: The Role of Various Policy Instruments in a Multi-Level Governance Context

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E. Carina H. Keskitalo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, considerable focus, e.g., in the fifth IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (2014 has been trained on why adaptation and mitigation have not been developed more than at present, with relatively few local government actions taken compared with, for example, more discursive policy agreement on the importance of the issue of climate change. Going beyond a focus on general limits and barriers, this comment suggests that one important issue is that climate change has not yet been sufficiently integrated into the state regulative structure of legislation and policy-making. A comparison between three cases suggests that local developments that are not supported in particular by binding regulation are unlikely to achieve the same general level of implementation as issues for which such regulative demands (and thereby also requirements for prioritization exist. This constitutes an important consideration for the development of adaptation and mitigation as policy areas, including on the local level.

Assessing the Impacts of Atmospheric Conditions under Climate Change on Air Quality Profile over Hong Kong

Science.gov (United States)

Hei Tong, Cheuk

2017-04-01

Small particulates can cause long term impairment to human health as they can penetrate deep and deposit on the wall of the respiratory system. Under the projected climate change as reported by literature, atmospheric stability, which has strong effects on vertical mixing of air pollutants and thus air quality Hong Kong, is also varying from near to far future. In addition to domestic emission, Hong Kong receives also significant concentration of cross-boundary particulates that their natures and movements are correlated with atmospheric condition. This study aims to study the relation of atmospheric conditions with air quality over Hong Kong. Past meteorological data is based on Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data. Radiosonde data provided from HKO are also adopted in testing and validating the data. Future meteorological data is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), which dynamically downscaled the past and future climate under the A1B scenario simulated by ECHAM5/MPIOM. Air quality data is collected on one hand from the ground station data provided by Environment Protection Department, with selected stations revealing local emission and trans-boundary emission respectively. On the other hand, an Atmospheric Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), which operates using the radar principle to detect Rayleigh and Mie scattering from atmospheric gas and aerosols, has also been adopted to measure vertical aerosol profile, which has been observed tightly related to the high level meteorology. Data from scattered signals are collected, averaged or some episode selected for characteristic comparison with the atmospheric stability indices and other meteorological factors. The relation between atmospheric conditions and air quality is observed by statistical analysis, and statistical models are built based on the stability indices to project the changes in sulphur dioxide, ozone and particulate

National Assessment of Climate Resources for Tourism Seasonality in China Using the Tourism Climate Index

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Yan Fang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Tourism is a very important industry, and it is deeply affected by climate. This article focuses on the role of climate in tourism seasonality and attempts to assess the impacts of climate resources on China’s tourism seasonality by using the Tourism Climate Index (TCI. Seasonal distribution maps of TCI scores indicate that the climates of most regions in China are comfortable for tourists during spring and autumn, while the climate conditions differ greatly in summer and winter, with “excellent”, “good”, “acceptable” and “unfavorable” existing almost by a latitudinal gradation. The number of good months throughout China varies from zero (the Tibetan Plateau area to 10 (Yunnan Province, and most localities have five to eight good months. Moreover, all locations in China can be classified as winter peak, summer peak and bi-modal shoulder peak. The results will provide some useful information for tourist destinations, travel agencies, tourism authorities and tourists.

Evaluation of growth and flowering potential of rosa hybrida cultivars under Faisalabad climatic conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nadeem, M.; Khan, M.A.; Riaz, A.

2011-01-01

Exotic cultivars of hybrid roses respond uncertainly to new habitat. It is necessary to explore the potential of the introduced cultivars to judge the suitability in a new habitat. In the present study, nine Rosa hybrida cultivars including Autumn Sunset, Ice Berg, Paradise, Angel Face, Louise Odier, Casino, Grand Margina, Handel and Gruss-an-Teplitz were evaluated for growth and yield attributed under the climatic conditions of Faisalabad. Results indicated that there was decreasing trend in the growth and flowering of the bushes as the temperature increased above 32 degree C and humidity decreased to 29 %. Number of flowers per bush and diameter of flower decreased as the temperature increased and humidity decreased in contrast to increment in height of the plant and num ber of primary branches per plant in succeeding months. Interaction between yield traits and months was also significant. Overall, significant variations were observed in each cultivar for length and number of petals per flower, number of prickles, fragrance, flower persistence life and color, bush shape and overall performance with respect to climatic conditions of Faisalabad. It is concluded that the cultivars 'Autumn Sunset' and Gruss-an-Teplitz performed better in climatic conditions of Faisalabad. (author)

Investigation of the effect of sealed surfaces on local climate in urban areas

Science.gov (United States)

Weihs, Philipp; Hasel, Stefan; Mursch-Radlgruber, Erich; Gützer, Christian; Krispel, Stefan; Peyerl, Martin; Trimmel, Heidi

2015-04-01

Local climate is driven by the interaction between energy balance and energy transported by advected air. Short-wave and long-wave radiation are major components in this interaction. Some few studies (e.g. Santamouris et al.) showed that adjusting the grade of reflection of surfaces is an efficient way to influence temperature. The present study investigates the influence of high albedo concrete surfaces on local climate. The first step of the study consisted of experimental investigations: routine measurements of the short and longwave radiation balance, of the ground and of the air temperature and humidity at different heights above 6 different types of sealed surfaces were performed. During this measurement campaign the above mentioned components were measured over a duration of 4 months above two conventional asphalt surfaces, one conventional concrete and three newly developed concrete surfaces with increased reflectances. Measured albedo values amounted to 0.12±0.02 for the asphalt surfaces and to maximum values of 0.56 for high albedo concrete. The maximum difference in surface temperature between the asphalt surfaces and the high albedo concrete surfaces amounted to 15°C. In addition the emission constants of the different sealed surfaces were also determined and were compared to values from literature.. In a second step the urban energy balance model Envi_Met was used to simulate the surface temperature of the six surfaces. The simulated surface temperatures were compared to the measured surface temperatures and statements as to uncertainties of the model simulations were made In a third step, Envi_Met was used to simulate the local climate of an urban district in Vienna. The surface and air temperature and the SW, LW fluxes were calculated for different types of sealed surfaces. By performing calculations of thermal stress indices (UTCI, PMV), statements as to the influence of the type of sealed surface on thermal stress on humans was made.

Thermal comfort in air-conditioned mosques in the dry desert climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Al-ajmi, Farraj F. [Department of Civil Engineering, College of Technological Studies, Shuwaikh 70654 (Kuwait)

2010-11-15

In Kuwait, as in most countries with a typical dry desert climate, the summer season is long with a mean daily maximum temperature of 45 C. Centralized air-conditioning, which is generally deployed from the beginning of April to the end of October, can have tremendous impact on the amount of electrical energy utilized to mechanically control the internal environment in mosque buildings. The indoor air temperature settings for all types of air-conditioned buildings and mosque buildings in particular, are often calculated based on the analytical model of ASHRAE 55-2004 and ISO 7730. However, a field study was conducted in six air-conditioned mosque buildings during the summers of 2007 to investigate indoor climate and prayers thermal comfort in state of Kuwait. The paper presents statistical data about the indoor environmental conditions in Kuwait mosque buildings, together with an analysis of prayer thermal comfort sensations for a total of 140 subjects providing 140 sets of physical measurements and subjective questionnaires were used to collect data. Results show that the neutral temperature (T{sub n}) of the prayers is found to be 26.1 C, while that for PMV is 23.3 C. Discrepancy of these values is in fact about 2.8 C higher than those predicted by PMV model. Therefore, thermal comfort temperature in Kuwait cannot directly correlate with ISO 7730 and ASHRAE 55-2004 standards. Findings from this study should be considered when designing air conditioning for mosque buildings. This knowledge can contribute towards the development of future energy-related design codes for Kuwait. (author)

The cold climate geomorphology of the Eastern Cape Drakensberg: A reevaluation of past climatic conditions during the last glacial cycle in Southern Africa

OpenAIRE

Mills, SC; Barrows, TT; Telfer, MW; Fifield, LK

2017-01-01

publisher: Elsevier articletitle: The cold climate geomorphology of the Eastern Cape Drakensberg: A reevaluation of past climatic conditions during the last glacial cycle in Southern Africa journaltitle: Geomorphology articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.11.011 content_type: article copyright: Crown Copyright © 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of climatic conditions changes on grain yield in Winter Triticale (X Triticosecale Wittm.

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Ionuț RACZ

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is making out the influence of climatic changes on grain yield of winter triticale in relation with applied fertilizer. The influence of environmental conditions on growing and development of triticale plants depends of grow stages and their duration. During five experimental years (2010-2015 the climatic conditions were different year to year, with an accentuated heating trend, influencing plant phenology, accelerating or slowing down some important processes disturbing grain yield formation. The influence of drought is more accentuated by heating stress and prolonging of these conditions during the main phenological processes have a negative influence on plant growth or development with effect on the grain yield formation process.

15 local climate-energy plans: regions and districts, local leaders of the struggle against climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

This report presents some general information, the sectors addressed by the Climate - Energy Plan, the approaches adopted, the plan elaboration process (organisation, participation and governance, diagnosis and challenges identification, communication actions), the actions and their follow-up, the success factors and the improvement opportunities of the Climate-energy Plans elaborated and adopted by different French regions (Alsace, Aquitaine, Basse-Normandie, Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comte, Haute-Normandie, Languedoc-Roussillon, Limousin, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Poitou-Charentes) and districts (Alpes Maritimes, Bas-Rhin, Eure, Seine-Maritime)

Lakes sensitivity to climatic stress – a sociological assessment

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Lackowska Marta

2016-12-01

Full Text Available One of the conditions for effective water resources management in protected areas is local decision makers’ knowledge about potential threats caused by climate changes. Our study, conducted in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve of Tuchola Forest in Poland, analyses the perception of threats by local stakeholders. Their assessments of the sensitivity of four lakes to the extreme weather events are compared with hydrological studies. The survey shows that the lakes’ varying responses to extreme weather conditions is rarely noticed by ordinary observers. Their perception is usually far from the hydrological facts, which indicates a lack of relevant information or a failure in making it widely accessible and understandable. Moreover, it is rather the human impact, not climate change, which is seen as the biggest threat to the lakes. Insufficient environmental knowledge may hinder the effective protection and management of natural resources, due to bad decisions and lack of the local communities’ support for adaptation and mitigation policies.

Rainfall and net infiltration probabilities for future climate conditions at Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, A.; Childs, S.W.

1993-01-01

Performance assessment of repository integrity is a task rendered difficult because it requires predicting the future. This challenge has occupied many scientists who realize that the best assessments are required to maximize the probability of successful repository sitting and design. As part of a performance assessment effort directed by the EPRI, the authors have used probabilistic methods to assess the magnitude and timing of net infiltration at Yucca Mountain. A mathematical model for net infiltration previously published incorporated a probabilistic treatment of climate, surface hydrologic processes and a mathematical model of the infiltration process. In this paper, we present the details of the climatological analysis. The precipitation model is event-based, simulating characteristics of modern rainfall near Yucca Mountain, then extending the model to most likely values for different degrees of pluvial climates. Next the precipitation event model is fed into a process-based infiltration model that considers spatial variability in parameters relevant to net infiltration of Yucca Mountain. The model predicts that average annual net infiltration at Yucca Mountain will range from a mean of about 1 mm under present climatic conditions to a mean of at least 2.4 mm under full glacial (pluvial) conditions. Considerable variations about these means are expected to occur from year-to-year

Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2014-05-01

Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

Microbial Decomposers Not Constrained by Climate History Along a Mediterranean Climate Gradient

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, N. R.; Khalili, B.; Martiny, J. B. H.; Allison, S. D.

2017-12-01

The return of organic carbon to the atmosphere through terrestrial decomposition is mediated through the breakdown of complex organic polymers by extracellular enzymes produced by microbial decomposer communities. Determining if and how these decomposer communities are constrained in their ability to degrade plant litter is necessary for predicting how carbon cycling will be affected by future climate change. To address this question, we deployed fine-pore nylon mesh "microbial cage" litterbags containing grassland litter with and without local inoculum across five sites in southern California, spanning a gradient of 10.3-22.8° C in mean annual temperature and 100-400+ mm mean annual precipitation. Litterbags were deployed in October 2014 and collected four times over the course of 14 months. Recovered litter was assayed for mass loss, litter chemistry, microbial biomass, extracellular enzymes (Vmax and Km­), and enzyme temperature sensitivities. We hypothesized that grassland litter would decompose most rapidly in the grassland site, and that access to local microbial communities would enhance litter decomposition rates and microbial activity in the other sites along the gradient. We determined that temperature and precipitation likely interact to limit microbial decomposition in the extreme sites along our gradient. Despite their unique climate history, grassland microbes were not restricted in their ability to decompose litter under different climate conditions. Although we observed a strong correlation between bacterial biomass and mass loss across the gradient, litter that was inoculated with local microbial communities lost less mass despite having greater bacterial biomass and potentially accumulating more microbial residues. Our results suggest that microbial community composition may not constrain C-cycling rates under climate change in our system. However, there may be community constraints on decomposition if climate change alters litter chemistry, a

Climate Change and Coastal Zones. An Overview of the State-of-the-Art on Regional and Local Vulnerability Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sterr, H.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reese, S.

2000-06-01

This paper provides an overview of the latest developments in methodologies for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zones to climate change at regional and local scales. The focus of vulnerability assessment in coastal zones used to be on erosion and land loss due to sea-level rise. Methodologies now increasingly consider the wide range of climate and impact variables that play a part in determining coastal vulnerability, as well as non-climatic developments. The paper presents a conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment that identifies a number of system components that can be considered determinants of vulnerability. It then goes on to outline a number of steps that are required for the actual assessment of coastal vulnerability, such as scenario development, data collection and impact assessment. The approach is illustrated using a regional and local case study in Germany

Variation of moisture content of some varnished woods in indoor climatic conditions

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Kemal Üçüncü

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In this study, moisture change of varnished wood of black poplar (Populus nigra and yellow pine (Pinus silvestris L. used in indoor climate conditions with central heating in Trabzon (Turkey were investigated. 300 mm length wood specimens, with cross section of 12.5 mm in tangential and in radial and with the square sections of 25mm and 50 mm, were obtained from two species grown in Kanuni Campus of the Karadeniz Technical University. In this research, un-varnished wood samples were also used for reference. The wood moisture content was determined by the weighing method, the wood equilibrium moisture content by the Hailwood-Horrobin equation, and the relative humidity in the indoor climatic conditions by humid air thermodynamic principles. As a result; it was observed that the moisture content of varnished wood samples has a strong relationship with equilibrium moisture content, temperature and relative humidity. It was found that the moisture content of varnished woods was higher than the moisture content of un-varnished woods in the same climatic conditions. It was observed that the difference between the monthly average moisture content was lower in varnished woods in proportion to un-varnished woods. According to these results, it can be indicated that it would be more appropriate to select higher moisture content in the drying of wood than the equilibrium moisture content. Such an application would also reduce drying costs. Further, it can be recommended to use varnished wood in various applications because the low change range of average moisture content can affect the swelling or shrinking of wood.

How do Changes in Hydro-Climate Conditions Alter the Risk of Infection With Fasciolosis?

Science.gov (United States)

Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

2017-12-01

Fasciolosis is a widespread parasitic disease of livestock and is emerging as a major zoonosis. Since the parasite and its intermediate host live and develop in the environment, risk of infection is directly affected by climatic-environmental conditions. Changes in disease prevalence, seasonality and distribution have been reported in recent years and attributed to altered temperature and rainfall patterns, raising concerns about the effects of climate change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to understand how changes in climate-environmental drivers may alter the dynamics of disease risk in a quantitative way, to guide parasite control strategies and interventions in the coming decades. In a previous work, we developed and tested a novel mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Fasciolosis, which explicitly represents the parasite life-cycle in connection with key environmental processes, allowing to capture the impact of previously unseen conditions. In this study, we use the new mechanistic model to assess the sensitivity of infection rates to changes in climate-environmental factors. This is challenging as processes underlying disease transmission are complex and interacting, and may have contrasting effects on the parasite life-cycle stages. To this end, we set up a sensitivity analysis framework to investigate in a structured way which factors play a key role in controlling the magnitude, timing and spread of infection, and how the sensitivity of disease risk varies in time and space. Moreover, we define synthetic scenarios to explore the space of possible variability of the hydro-climate drivers and investigate conditions that lead to critical levels of infection. The study shows how the new model combined with the sensitivity analysis framework can support decision-making, providing useful information for disease management.

Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Gurney, Georgina G; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Geronimo, Rollan C; Aliño, Perry M; Johnson, Craig R

2013-01-01

Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef

Modelling Coral Reef Futures to Inform Management: Can Reducing Local-Scale Stressors Conserve Reefs under Climate Change?

Science.gov (United States)

Gurney, Georgina G.; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Geronimo, Rollan C.; Aliño, Perry M.; Johnson, Craig R.

2013-01-01

Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef

Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georgina G Gurney

Full Text Available Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general

Chatham Islands Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

2005-06-01

This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

Science.gov (United States)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

2018-03-01

Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of

Exergy characteristics of a ceiling-type residential air conditioning system operating under different climatic conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ozbek, Arif [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Ceyhan Engineering Faculty, Cukurova University, Adana (Turkmenistan)

2016-11-15

In this study an energy and exergy analysis of a Ceiling-type residential air conditioning (CTRAC) system operating under different climatic conditions have been investigated for provinces within the different geographic regions of Turkey. Primarily, the hourly cooling load capacities of a sample building (Q{sub evap}) during the months of April, May, June, July, August and September were determined. The hourly total heat gain of the sample building was determined using the Hourly analysis program (HAP). The Coefficient of performance (COP), exergy efficiency (η) and exergy destruction (Ex{sub dest}) values for the whole system and for each component were obtained. The results showed that lower atmospheric temperature (T{sub atm}) influenced the performance of the system and each of its components.

Long-term data from a small mammal community reveal loss of diversity and potential effects of local climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Santoro, Simone; Sanchez-Suarez, Cristina; Rouco, Carlos; Palomo, L Javier; Fernández, M Carmen; Kufner, Maura B; Moreno, Sacramento

2017-10-01

Climate change affects distribution and persistence of species. However, forecasting species' responses to these changes requires long-term data series that are often lacking in ecological studies. We used 15 years of small mammal trapping data collected between 1978 and 2015 in 3 areas at Doñana National Park (southwest Spain) to (i) describe changes in species composition and (ii) test the association between local climate conditions and size of small mammal populations. Overall, 5 species were captured: wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus , algerian mouse Mus spretus , greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula , garden dormouse Eliomys quercinus , and black rat Rattus rattus . The temporal pattern in the proportion of captures of each species suggests that the small mammal diversity declined with time. Although the larger species (e.g., E. quercinus ), better adapted to colder climate, have disappeared from our trapping records, M. spretus , a small species inhabiting southwest Europe and the Mediterranean coast of Africa, currently is almost the only trapped species. We used 2-level hierarchical models to separate changes in abundance from changes in probability of capture using records of A. sylvaticus in all 3 areas and of M. spretus in 1. We found that heavy rainfall and low temperatures were positively related to abundance of A. sylvaticus , and that the number of extremely hot days was negatively related to abundance of M. spretus . Despite other mechanisms are likely to be involved, our findings support the importance of climate for the distribution and persistence of these species and raise conservation concerns about potential cascading effects in the Doñana ecosystem.

Assessment of Humidity Conditions and Trends Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SEPI Over Different Climatic Regions of Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Ghabaei S

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Drought is a recurrent feature of climate that caused by deficiency of precipitation over time. Due to the rise in water demand and alarming climate change, recent year’s observer much focus on drought and drought conditions. A multiple types of deficits and relevant temporal scales can be achieved through the construction of a joint indicator that draws on information from multiple sources and will therefore enable better assessment of drought characteristics including return period, persistent and severity. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI combines information from precipitation and temperature in the form of water surplus or deficit according to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. Rainfall over some regions of Iran during some resent year was below average while mean and maximum temperatures were very high during this period, as was evaporation. This would suggest that drought conditions were worse than in previous recent periods with similarly low rainfall. The main objective of this study is to assess the influences of humidity on the SPEI index and investigate its relation with SPI and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI over six different climatic regions in Iran. Materials and Methods: Iran has different climatic conditions which vary from desert in central part to costal wet near the Caspian Sea. In this study the selection of stations was done based on Alijani et al (2008 climatic classification. We chose 11 synoptic stations from six different climatic classes including costal wet (Rasht and Babolsar, semi mountains (Mashhad and Tabriz, mountains (Shiraz and Khoram Abad, semi-arid (Tehran and Semnan, arid (Kerman and Yazd and costal desert (Bandar Abas. The Meteorological datasets for the aforementioned stations were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO for the period 1960-2010. The compiled data included average monthly values of precipitation, minimum and maximum air

Enforcing the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy condition in explicitly conservative local time stepping schemes

Science.gov (United States)

Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Semenov, Vadim A.; Kravtsov, Andrey V.

2018-04-01

An optimally efficient explicit numerical scheme for solving fluid dynamics equations, or any other parabolic or hyperbolic system of partial differential equations, should allow local regions to advance in time with their own, locally constrained time steps. However, such a scheme can result in violation of the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition, which is manifestly non-local. Although the violations can be considered to be "weak" in a certain sense and the corresponding numerical solution may be stable, such calculation does not guarantee the correct propagation speed for arbitrary waves. We use an experimental fluid dynamics code that allows cubic "patches" of grid cells to step with independent, locally constrained time steps to demonstrate how the CFL condition can be enforced by imposing a constraint on the time steps of neighboring patches. We perform several numerical tests that illustrate errors introduced in the numerical solutions by weak CFL condition violations and show how strict enforcement of the CFL condition eliminates these errors. In all our tests the strict enforcement of the CFL condition does not impose a significant performance penalty.

Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders

Science.gov (United States)

Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2015-12-01

While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system.

Climate Change and water resources: Scenarios of low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube River Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mauser, W; Marke, T; Stoeber, S

2008-01-01

Global Climate Change will have regional impacts on the water resources and will force water resources managers and farmers to adapt. Both low-flow and its duration are critical hydrological parameters, which strongly influence the state of aquatic ecosystems as well as power production, reservoir management and industry. Impacts of future climate change is analysed using scenarios for the change of meteorological drivers and regional hydrological simulation models. The project GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) develops integrative modelling techniques combining process knowledge from both natural and social sciences to examine the sustainability of regional water systems as well as water management alternatives in the Upper Danube watershed (A = 77000 km 2 ). Special emphasis is given to changes in low-flow condition. DANUBIA describes the regional water cycle both physical and spatially distributed. It consists of a collection of tightly coupled models, which strictly preserve energy and matter and are not calibrated to maximise their overall predictive abilities. The paper demonstrates that DANUBIA can reproduce the daily discharge for the time period from 1971-2003 with a Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient of 0.84 (gauge Achleiten). Based on a statistical climate simulator 12 realisations of the IPCC A1B climate scenario were used to investigate impacts of climate change during the simulation period of 2011-2060. The change in discharge and frequency of occurrences of low-flow in the watershed for the scenario ensemble were analysed for the outlet gauge. The analysis shows that strong changes were simulated in the frequency of occurrences of low-flow conditions. The changing climate gradually reduces a 50-years NM7Q discharge of today to less than half of its discharge in the year 2060. These results clearly indicate that the expected climate change will strongly alter the low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube watershed.

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Stuart K.; DeYoung, Russell J.; Shepanek, Marc A.; Kamel, Ahmed

2014-01-01

Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Brubaker

2011-10-01

Full Text Available This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities.In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects.The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses.The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska.Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate.The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures.

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, D.; Person, M.; Daannen, R.; Locke, S.; Dahlstrom, D.; Zabielski, V.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Wright, H.; Ito, E.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.

2006-01-01

This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge

Climate services for an urban area (Baia Mare City, Romania) with a focus on climate extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Sima, Mihaela; Micu, Dana; Dragota, Carmen-Sofia; Mihalache, Sorin

2013-04-01

The Baia Mare Urban System is located in the north-western part of Romania, with around 200,000 inhabitants and represents one of the most important former mining areas in the country, whose socioeconomic profile and environmental conditions have greatly changed over the last 20 years during the transition and post-transition period. Currently the mining is closed in the area, but the historical legacy of this activity has implications in terms of economic growth, social and cultural developments and environmental quality. Baia Mare city lies in an extended depression, particularly sheltered by the mountain and hilly regions located in the north and respectively, in the south-south-eastern part of it, which explains the high frequency of calm conditions and low airstream channeling occurrences. This urban system has a typically moderate temperate-continental climate, subject to frequent westerly airflows (moist), which moderate the thermal regime (without depicting severe extremes, both positive and negative) and enhance the precipitation one (entailing a greater frequency of wet extremes). During the reference period (1971-2000), the climate change signal in the area is rather weak and not statistically significant. However, since the mid 1980s, the warming signal became more evident from the observational data (Baia Mare station), showing a higher frequency of dry spells and positive extremes. The modelling experiments covering the 2021-2050 time horizon using regional (RM5.1/HadRM3Q0/RCA3) and global (ARPEGE/HadCM3Q0/BCM/ECHAM5) circulation models carried out within the ECLISE FP7 project suggest an ongoing temperature rise, associated to an intensification of temperature and precipitation extremes. In this context, the aim of this study was to evaluate how the local authorities consider and include climate change in their activity, as well as in the development plans (e.g. territorial, economic and social development plans). Individual interviews have been

Scientific Data and Its Limits: Rethinking the Use of Evidence in Local Climate Change Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Pearce, Warren

2014-01-01

Climate policy is typically seen as informed by scientific evidence that anthropogenic carbon emissions require reducing in order to avoid dangerous consequences. However, agreement on these matters has not translated into effective policy. Using interviews with local authority officials in the UK's East Midlands region, this paper argues that the…

Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolina Tovar

Full Text Available Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%, there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar

Architecture of the local spatial data infrastructure for regional climate change research

Science.gov (United States)

Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny

2013-04-01

Georeferenced datasets (meteorological databases, modeling and reanalysis results, etc.) are actively used in modeling and analysis of climate change for various spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their size which might constitute up to tens terabytes for a single dataset studies in the area of climate and environmental change require a special software support based on SDI approach. A dedicated architecture of the local spatial data infrastructure aiming at regional climate change analysis using modern web mapping technologies is presented. Geoportal is a key element of any SDI, allowing searching of geoinformation resources (datasets and services) using metadata catalogs, producing geospatial data selections by their parameters (data access functionality) as well as managing services and applications of cartographical visualization. It should be noted that due to objective reasons such as big dataset volume, complexity of data models used, syntactic and semantic differences of various datasets, the development of environmental geodata access, processing and visualization services turns out to be quite a complex task. Those circumstances were taken into account while developing architecture of the local spatial data infrastructure as a universal framework providing geodata services. So that, the architecture presented includes: 1. Effective in terms of search, access, retrieval and subsequent statistical processing, model of storing big sets of regional georeferenced data, allowing in particular to store frequently used values (like monthly and annual climate change indices, etc.), thus providing different temporal views of the datasets 2. General architecture of the corresponding software components handling geospatial datasets within the storage model 3. Metadata catalog describing in detail using ISO 19115 and CF-convention standards datasets used in climate researches as a basic element of the

The Climate for Steel. Actions for, and conditions to, a Copenhagen climate agreement from the perspective of the EU steel sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slingerland, S.; Werring, L.; De Bruijn, S.; Korteland, M.

2009-02-01

A position paper discussing the relationship between climate change policies and competitiveness in the global steel sector. Question is how the need for effective action to confront global climate change can be combined with a level playing field for competition in the global steel sector, taking into account the position of Corus Netherlands as a European steel producer. More specifically; what conditions in an international agreement could provide such a level playing field? Chapter 2 of this paper briefly outlines some essential characteristics of the global and European steel sector. Chapter 3 outlines the present status quo of the multilateral climate change negotiation process towards the December 2009 Copenhagen conference. Chapter 4 gives a view on climate and competitiveness for the EU steel sector. Chapter 5 finally provides conclusions and recommendations for provisions in an international agreement that could provide for a competitive level playing field in the steel sector

Local temperature fine-tunes the timing of spring migration in birds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tøttrup, Anders P.; Rainio, Kalle; Coppack, Timothy

2010-01-01

and predict consequences of climatic change for migratory birds. In order to better understand migration phenology and adaptation in environmental changes, we here assess the scale at which weather affects timing of spring migration in passerine birds. We use three commonly used proxies of spring......-time climatic conditions: (1) vegetation "greenness" (NDVI) in Europe, (2) local spring temperatures in northern Europe, and (3) the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) as predictors of the phenology of avian migration as well as the strength of their effect on different subsets of populations...... breeding area. Local temperature was the best single predictor of phenology with the highest explanatory power achieved in combination with NAO. Furthermore, early individuals are more affected by climatic variation compared to individuals on later passage, indicating that climatic change affects subsets...

Climate change and future overwintering conditions of horticultural woody-plants in Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laapas, M.; Jylhae, K.; Tuomenvirta, H. (Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland))

2012-07-01

Climate in Finland offers challenging conditions for commercial horticulture. The short and insufficient growing season together with risky overwintering strongly limits species suitable for cultivation. The aim of this study was to examine the climatic conditions around Finland in the aspect of horticulture, focusing on processes relevant to woody plants and species with photoperiod controlled growth cessation, and how these conditions may be expected to change due to the projected global warming. For this, a set of temperature-related indices and threshold events were used. These indices represent the severity of coldness during winter, wintertime thaws, and frost events close to the onset and ending of the growing season. The combined results of 19 GCMs (General Circulation Model) from the CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3) multi-model data set under SRES-B1 and SRES-A2 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios were used to produce the future projections. By mid-century our results suggest wintertime conditions with reduced cold stress, caused by less frequent and shorter periods of severe frost together with a rise in the extreme minimum temperature. Conversely, an increase in the number and intensity of wintertime thaw events leads to a higher risk in overwintering. Also the risk of spring frost damage is projected to decrease slightly, and the conditions for cold hardening process to improve, as the first autumnal frosts occur later. (orig.)

Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Gautam, Shiva; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2012-01-01

Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ~20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5 °C with an average increase of 0.06 °C yr(-1). The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr(-1). Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1) and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1), but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters. This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change.

Slarti: A boundary condition editor for a coupled climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Mickelson, S. A.; Jacob, R. L.; Pierrehumbert, R.

2006-12-01

One of the largest barriers to making climate models more flexible is the difficulty in creating new boundary conditions, especially for "deep time" paleoclimate cases where continents are in different positions. Climate models consist of several mutually-interacting component models and the boundary conditions must be consistent between them. We have developed a program called Slarti which uses a Graphical User Interface and a set of consistency rules to aid researchers in creating new, consistent, boundary condition files for the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM). Users can start from existing mask, topography, or bathymetry data or can build a "world" entirely from scratch (e.g. a single island continent). Once a case has been started, users can modify mask, vegetation, bathymetry, topography, and river flow fields by drawing new data through a "paint" interface. Users activate a synchronization button which goes through the fields to eliminate inconsistencies. When the changes are complete and save is selected, Slarti creates all the necessary files for an initial run of FOAM. The data is edited at the highest resolution (the ocean-land surface in FOAM) and then interpolated to the atmosphere resolution. Slarti was implemented in Java to maintain portability across platforms. We also relied heavily on Java Swing components to create the interface. This allowed us to create an object-oriented interface that could be used on many different systems. Since Slarti allows users to visualize their changes, they are able to see areas that may cause problems when the model is ran. Some examples would be lakes from the river flow field and narrow trenches within the bathymetry. Through different checks and options available through its interface, Slarti makes the process of creating new boundary conditions for FOAM easier and faster while reducing the chance for user errors.

The effect of climate change on urban drainage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grum, M.; Jørgensen, A.T.; Johansen, R.M.

2006-01-01

and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps......That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent...... to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change....

On the role of model depth and hydraulic properties for groundwater flow modelling during glacial climate conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vidstrand, Patrik; Rhen, Ingvar

2011-03-01

A common assumption in regional groundwater flow simulations of periods with glacial climate conditions is that the salinity at the bottom boundary of the model domain is stable (constant over time). This assumption is partly based on the general fact that water density increases with increasing salinity, but also supported by measurements, e.g. the mobile (fracture water) and immobile (porewater) salinity typically increase with depth, whereas the conductive fracture frequency and fracture transmissivity often decrease with depth. Plausibly, the depth to stable hydrogeological conditions varies between sites, and the question studied here is whether hydrogeological disturbances could occur at 2-4 km depth during glacial climate conditions. With regard to the results of SDM-Site and SR-Site, the hydrogeological conditions at repository depth indicate less groundwater flow during glacial climate conditions at Forsmark than at Laxemar. For this reason, this study uses the Laxemar site as a hypothetical site of potentially more permeable conditions, hence more readily affected during glacial climate conditions. A series of flow simulations conducted with DarcyTools in an approximately 5 km deep, super-regional model domain centred on the Laxemar site are reported. The studied cases (model variants) represent a variety of different property specifications along with variations in initial conditions concerning salinity. The model domain is subjected to a transient top boundary representing an advancing ice sheet margin. The behaviour of the grid cell pressure, Darcy flux and mobile salinity is monitored at four different elevations along a vertical scan line through the centre of the suggested location for a KBS-3 repository at Laxemar. The studied monitoring points are located at -0.5 km, -2.5 km, -3.0 km, and -3.5 km. These elevations are chosen with the objective to study the range of hydrogeological disturbance that could occur at 2-4 km depth. The flow model is run

On the role of model depth and hydraulic properties for groundwater flow modelling during glacial climate conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB (Sweden))

2011-03-15

A common assumption in regional groundwater flow simulations of periods with glacial climate conditions is that the salinity at the bottom boundary of the model domain is stable (constant over time). This assumption is partly based on the general fact that water density increases with increasing salinity, but also supported by measurements, e.g. the mobile (fracture water) and immobile (porewater) salinity typically increase with depth, whereas the conductive fracture frequency and fracture transmissivity often decrease with depth. Plausibly, the depth to stable hydrogeological conditions varies between sites, and the question studied here is whether hydrogeological disturbances could occur at 2-4 km depth during glacial climate conditions. With regard to the results of SDM-Site and SR-Site, the hydrogeological conditions at repository depth indicate less groundwater flow during glacial climate conditions at Forsmark than at Laxemar. For this reason, this study uses the Laxemar site as a hypothetical site of potentially more permeable conditions, hence more readily affected during glacial climate conditions. A series of flow simulations conducted with DarcyTools in an approximately 5 km deep, super-regional model domain centred on the Laxemar site are reported. The studied cases (model variants) represent a variety of different property specifications along with variations in initial conditions concerning salinity. The model domain is subjected to a transient top boundary representing an advancing ice sheet margin. The behaviour of the grid cell pressure, Darcy flux and mobile salinity is monitored at four different elevations along a vertical scan line through the centre of the suggested location for a KBS-3 repository at Laxemar. The studied monitoring points are located at -0.5 km, -2.5 km, -3.0 km, and -3.5 km. These elevations are chosen with the objective to study the range of hydrogeological disturbance that could occur at 2-4 km depth. The flow model is run

Smart city planning under the climate change condition

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Dexiang; Zhao, Yue; Zhou, Xi

2017-08-01

With the aggravation of climate change, extreme weather events occur continuously, cities are not resilient to climate change, and we need to change the concept of urban planning, centering on climate research and its research achievements, combining with the modern intelligent technology and formulating a smart city that resilience to the climate change, realizing the sustainable development of human, city, environment and society.

Climate variability and causes: from the perspective of the Tharaka people of eastern Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Recha, Charles W.; Makokha, George L.; Shisanya, Chris A.

2017-12-01

The study assessed community understanding of climate variability in semi-arid Tharaka sub-county, Kenya. The study used four focus group discussions (FGD) ( N = 48) and a household survey ( N = 326) to obtain information from four agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The results were synthesized and descriptively presented. People in Tharaka sub-county are familiar with the term climate change and associate it with environmental degradation. There are, however, misconceptions and gaps in understanding the causes of climate change. There was a mismatch between community and individual perception of onset and cessation of rainfall—evidence that analysis of the impact of climate change should take into account the scale of interaction. To improve climate change knowledge, there is a need for climate change education by scientific institutions—to provide information on local climatic conditions and global and regional drivers of climate change to local communities.

The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

Science.gov (United States)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

2016-04-01

Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

Conditions for Emergence, Stability and Change in New Organizations in the Field of Citizens Climate Action

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Figueroa, Maria Josefina

Climate change represents a crisis of tangible measure and the emergence of a field of action within which acting today needs to be motivated for what can contribute to benefit climate and transform society into a low carbon tomorrow. With the breadth and scope of citizen action on climate change....... This contribution is concerned with the latter. It proposes that using field analysis it is possible to understand conditions of emergence, stability and change in citizen engagement in climate action. The present contribution offers only a preliminary exploration of possibilities for how using field theory can...

Design and Analysis of Financial Condition Local Government Java and Bali (2013-2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natrini Nur Dewi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This research aims to identify financial condition of local government in Java and Bali year 2013-2014. It is due to government financial condition, according to several researchers, provides an image on the ability of a government in fulfilling their obligations whether in the form of debt or service fulfillment in timely manner. According to assessment upon financial condition, local government is able to identify how to fulfill public needs, how to utilize resources and how to proceed resources so that it can be more productive. As for the measurement method of financial condition itself, the standard method cannot be determined. Therefore, indicator used for measuring local government financial condition is Brown's (1993[2] indicator development adjusted to Indonesian government. In order to develop the indicator, this research employs qualitative method by comparing GASB No.34, SAP Government Regulation (“Peraturan Pemerintah” - PP 71 Year 2010, SAP PP 24 year 2005 and literature studies and expert validation. In order to obtain a balanced comparison, this research also employs clusters developed by Baidori (2015[1] for government in Java and Bali. Results of this research showed that among 7 analyzed clusters, there are variations of results, even though each cluster has similar socioeconomic condition to each other. This variation upon Indonesian local government financial condition is caused by regional autonomy.

Barriers in local practice-oriented teaching networks to organize climate and science teaching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grunwald, Annette

The poster takes its point of departure from a need to meet primary and lower secondary pupils interest in climate, science and technology by giving them possibilities to learn “in the real world” in a more problem based way. This possibility is given through out-of-school learning organized in co......-operation between educational actors, here primary/lower secondary schools, Aalborg University, and other actors, here Aalborg municipality and companies. The poster will present the first results of an ongoing developing and research project “Learning in reality: Practice-oriented teaching networks strengthen...... primary and lower secondary school pupils’ interest in climate and science”, funded by the Danish Energy Foundation (August 2014 – December 2016). The aim of the project is e.g. to: - Develop, establish and explore new forms of local cooperation between schools, companies, Aalborg University...

Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

2016-09-01

Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

The Climate Effects of Deforestation the Amazon Rainforest under Global Warming Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Werth, D.; Avissar, R.

2006-12-01

Replacement of tropical rainforests has been observed to have a strong drying effect in Amazon simulations, with effects reaching high into the atmospheric column and into the midlatitudes. The drying effects of deforestation, however, can be moderated by the effects of global warming, which should accelerate the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon. The effects of a prescribed, time-varying Amazon deforestation done in conjunction with a steady, moderate increase in CO2 concentrations are determined using a climate model. The model agrees with previous studies when each forcing is applied individually - compared to a control run, Amazon deforestation decreases the local precipitation and global warming increases it. When both are applied, however, the precipitation and other hydrologic variables decrease, but to a lesser extent than when deforestation alone was applied. In effect, the two effects act opposite to one another and bring the simulated climate closer to that of the control.

An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

2016-12-01

The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

A Mobile Localization Strategy for Wireless Sensor Network in NLOS Conditions

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Long Cheng; Yan Wang; Xingming Sun; Nan Hu; Jian Zhang

2016-01-01

The problem of mobile localization for wireless sensor network has attracted considerable attention in recent years.The localization accuracy will drastically grade in non-line of sight (NLOS) conditions.In this paper,we propose a mobile localization strategy based on Kalman filter.The key technologies for the proposed method are the NLOS identification and mitigation.The proposed method does not need the prior knowledge of the NLOS error and it is independent of the physical measurement ways.Simulation results show that the proposed method owns the higher localization accuracy when compared with other methods.

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L. for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xian-Ge Hu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities

Science.gov (United States)

Parey, Sylvie; Bernardara, Pietro; Donat, Markus G.

2010-05-01

Climate change is underway and even if mitigation measures are successfully implemented, societies will have to adapt to new climatic conditions in the near future and further. This session had been proposed to gather different studies dedicated to the climate change impact on some human activities, and discuss the possible ways of adaptation. Climate change is often presented in terms of global mean temperature evolutions, but what is important for adaptation concerns the local evolutions, and rather of the variability and extremes than of the mean of the involved meteorological parameters. In the session, studies and applications will be presented, covering different economical and industrial activities, such as energy production, (re-) insurance and risk assessment, water management or tourism.

Using in situ management to conserve biodiversity under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenwood, Owen; Mossman, Hannah L; Suggitt, Andrew J; Curtis, Robin J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2016-06-01

Successful conservation will increasingly depend on our ability to help species cope with climate change. While there has been much attention on accommodating or assisting range shifts, less has been given to the alternative strategy of helping species survive climate change through in situ management.Here we provide a synthesis of published evidence examining whether habitat management can be used to offset the adverse impacts on biodiversity of changes in temperature, water availability and sea-level rise. Our focus is on practical methods whereby the local environmental conditions experienced by organisms can be made more suitable.Many studies suggest that manipulating vegetation structure can alter the temperature and moisture conditions experienced by organisms, and several demonstrate that these altered conditions benefit species as regional climatic conditions become unsuitable. The effects of topography on local climatic conditions are even better understood, but the alteration of topography as a climate adaptation tool is not ingrained in conservation practice. Trials of topographic alteration in the field should therefore be a priority for future research.Coastal systems have the natural capacity to keep pace with climate change, but require sufficient sediment supplies and space for landward migration to do so. There is an extensive literature on managed realignment. While the underlying rationale is simple, successful implementation requires careful consideration of elevation and past land use. Even with careful management, restored habitats may not attain the physical and biological attributes of natural habitats. Synthesis and applications . The recent literature provides a compelling case that some of the adverse effects of climate change can be offset by appropriate management. However, much of the evidence for this is indirect and too few studies provide empirical tests of the long-term effectiveness of these management interventions. It is clear

Performance evaluation of a solar adsorption chiller under different climatic conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alahmer, Ali; Wang, Xiaolin; Al-Rbaihat, Raed; Amanul Alam, K.C.; Saha, B.B.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A solar adsorption cooling system was studied at different climatic conditions. • Effect of hot water temperature and flow rate on system performance was evaluated. • Solar collector area and tilting angle largely affected the system performance. • Economics of the solar adsorption cooling was analysed at real weather conditions. • Adsorption cooling could be potentially applied in cities with good solar radiation. - Abstract: Performance of an adsorption cooling system driven by solar thermal energy was studied under different climatic conditions. The effects of solar collector area, collector slope, hot water temperature and flow rate on the system performance were investigated using the real-time weather data of two cities: Perth, Australia (a representative city in the southern hemisphere) and Amman, Jordan (a representative city in the northern hemisphere). The simulation results showed that the two cities had similar solar radiation during the summer period and that the solar adsorption chiller could reliably provide cooling at a reasonably high system COP. For residential cooling with a total CPC (Compound Parabolic Collector) solar collector area of 36.22 m"2, the average system COP was 0.491 for Perth weather conditions and 0.467 for Amman weather conditions, respectively while the cooling capacity was 10.3 kW for Perth and 8.46 kW for Amman, respectively at peak times. Optimum performance occurred when the system run with the CPC collector slope of around 30°, the solar water storage tank volume of 1.4 m"3, inlet hot water temperature of 80 °C, and a hot water flow rate of 0.33 kg/s. An economic analysis was further investigated and the results showed that the solar driven adsorption cooling system could reduce the electricity consumption for Perth and Amman cities by 34% and 28%, respectively in comparison to a conventional vapour compression cooling system.

Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.

2014-12-01

In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.

Gender and climate change in the Indian Himalayas: global threats, local vulnerabilities, and livelihood diversification at the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve

Science.gov (United States)

Ogra, M. V.; Badola, R.

2015-08-01

Global climate change has numerous implications for members of mountain communities who feel the impacts in both physical and social dimensions. In the western Himalayas of India, a majority of residents maintain a livelihood strategy that includes a combination of subsistence or small-scale agriculture, livestock rearing, seasonal or long-term migration, and localized natural resource extraction. While warming temperatures, irregular patterns of precipitation and snowmelt, and changing biological systems present challenges to the viability of these traditional livelihood portfolios in general, we find that climate change is also undermining local communities' livelihood assets in gender-specific ways. In this paper, we present a case study from the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (Uttarakhand, India) that both outlines the implications of climate change for women farmers in the area and highlights the potential for ecotourism (as a form of livelihood diversification) to strengthen both key livelihood assets of women and local communities' adaptive capacity more broadly. The paper intentionally employs a categorical focus on women but also addresses issues of inter-group and gender diversity. With this special issue in mind, suggestions for related research are proposed for consideration by climate scientists and social systems and/or policy modelers seeking to support gender justice through socially transformative perspectives and frameworks.

Catchment-scale contaminant transport under changing hydro-climatic conditions in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin, Central Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Jarsjö, Jerker; Törnqvist, Rebecka; Su, Ye

2013-04-01

Dependable projections of future water availability and quality are essential in the management of water resources. Changes in land use, water use and climate can have large impacts on water and contaminant flows across extensive catchments that may contain different administrative regions where shared water resources must be managed. We consider the extensive Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB) and the Amu Darya River Delta in Central Asia, which are currently under severe water stress due to large-scale irrigation expansion. We interpret data on hydro-climatic conditions, main contaminants of surface water and shallow groundwater systems, location of rivers and canal networks, and groundwater flow directions. The data are used together with climate change projections from general circulation models (GCMs) as input to hydrological and (advective) transport modelling. The main goal is to assess how regional transport pathways and travel times have changed, and are likely to change further, in response to past and projected future hydro-climatic changes. More specifically, the hydrological modelling was based on temperature and precipitation change (ΔT and ΔP) results from 65 GCM projections of 21st century conditions (specifically considering time periods around 2025, 2050, and 2100), relative to reference conditions around 1975 (taken from the reference period 1961-1990). Whereas ΔT is robustly projected to increase with time, the projected magnitude of ΔP differs more among projections for the distant future (2100) than for the near future (2025), with uncertainty remaining even about the direction of change (i.e., positive or negative ΔP). However, mainly due to the projected temperature-driven increases in evapotranspiration, ensemble average results show that the Amu Darya river discharge Q in the downstream ASDB is likely to show a decreasing trend throughout the 21st century. Notably, projected changes in the upstream, mountainous regions have a relatively

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting

Interpreting the climatic effects on xylem functional traits in two Mediterranean oak species: the role of extreme climatic events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelo Rita

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of i detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and ii exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport

Climate for Change?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wejs, Anja

Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

Validation of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles through the smoothness of climate variables

KAUST Repository

Lee, Myoungji

2015-05-14

Smoothness is an important characteristic of a spatial process that measures local variability. If climate model outputs are realistic, then not only the values at each grid pixel but also the relative variation over nearby pixels should represent the true climate. We estimate the smoothness of long-term averages for land surface temperature anomalies in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and compare them by climate regions and seasons. We also compare the estimated smoothness of the climate outputs in CMIP5 with those of reanalysis data. The estimation is done through the composite likelihood approach for locally self-similar processes. The composite likelihood that we consider is a product of conditional likelihoods of neighbouring observations. We find that the smoothness of the surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5 depends primarily on the modelling institution and on the climate region. The seasonal difference in the smoothness is generally small, except for some climate regions where the average temperature is extremely high or low.

Projections of meteorological and snow conditions in the Pyrenees using adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate projections

Science.gov (United States)

Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

2017-04-01

Current and future availability of seasonal snow is a recurring topic in mountain regions such as the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenues in France, Spain and Andorra. Associated changes in river discharges, their consequences on water storage management, the future vulnerability of Pyrenean ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as debris flows and avalanches are also under consideration. However, to generate projections of snow conditions, a traditional dynamical downscaling approach featuring spatial resolutions typically between 10 and 50 km is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. Indeed, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Moreover, simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) suffer from biases compared to local observations, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted before they can be used to drive specific models such as land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. Meteorological observations used for the quantile mapping consist of the regional scale reanalysis SAFRAN, which operates at the scale of homogeneous areas on the order of 1000 km2 within which meteorological conditions vary only with elevation. SAFRAN combines large-scale NWP reanalysis (ERA40, ARPEGE) with in-situ meteorological observations. The SAFRAN reanalysis is available

Modelling stream-fish functional traits in reference conditions: regional and local environmental correlates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

João M Oliveira

Full Text Available Identifying the environmental gradients that control the functional structure of biological assemblages in reference conditions is fundamental to help river management and predict the consequences of anthropogenic stressors. Fish metrics (density of ecological guilds, and species richness from 117 least disturbed stream reaches in several western Iberia river basins were modelled with generalized linear models in order to investigate the importance of regional- and local-scale abiotic gradients to variation in functional structure of fish assemblages. Functional patterns were primarily associated with regional features, such as catchment elevation and slope, rainfall, and drainage area. Spatial variations of fish guilds were thus associated with broad geographic gradients, showing (1 pronounced latitudinal patterns, affected mainly by climatic factors and topography, or (2 at the basin level, strong upstream-downstream patterns related to stream position in the longitudinal gradient. Maximum native species richness was observed in midsize streams in accordance with the river continuum concept. The findings of our study emphasized the need to use a multi-scale approach in order to fully assess the factors that govern the functional organization of biotic assemblages in 'natural' streams, as well as to improve biomonitoring and restoration of fluvial ecosystems.

Is climate change a threat for water uses in the Mediterranean region? Results from a survey at local scale.

Science.gov (United States)

La Jeunesse, I; Cirelli, C; Aubin, D; Larrue, C; Sellami, H; Afifi, S; Bellin, A; Benabdallah, S; Bird, D N; Deidda, R; Dettori, M; Engin, G; Herrmann, F; Ludwig, R; Mabrouk, B; Majone, B; Paniconi, C; Soddu, A

2016-02-01

Water scarcity and water security are linked, not only through the direct effects of water shortages on each water users' access to water, but also because of water conflicts generated. Climate change is predicted to raise temperatures in the Mediterranean region and reduce rainfall, leading to a reduction in water yield and possibly worsening the situation of water resource shortages that Mediterranean regions are already experiencing. In its dissemination strategy, the EU FP7 CLIMB project addressed water security threats through an analysis of water uses and water use rivalries within a few target catchments distributed over the Mediterranean region. The present work explores whether climate change is locally perceived by stakeholders (water users and managers) as a key issue for their water uses and water security. Individual interviews, meetings, and compilation of questionnaires were conducted at five sites located in the Mediterranean region. The methodology permitted an analysis of water use and its evolution in the water management context, an identification of the state of awareness of local stakeholders and of the pressures on water use and water use rivalries, and a prioritization of water uses. Currently, the main response to increasing water demand in the Mediterranean region, while not yet considering climate change as a driving force, is a progressive externalization of water resources, with limits represented by national borders and technological possibilities. Overall, 'climate change' was not mentioned by stakeholders during both interviews and in answers to the questionnaires. Even the prospect of decreasing precipitation was not considered a relevant or threatening issue in the coming 20years. This confirms the need to continue all efforts to disseminate the state of knowledge on climate change impacts in the Mediterranean region, such as water scarcity, especially to local water managers, as initiated by various research programs of the

Klimatska pogojenost debelinskega prirastka dreves ob slovenskih visokogorskih alpskih jezerih = Climatic conditioning or radial increments of trees near Slovenian high-mountainous Alpine lakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darko Ogrin

1998-01-01

Full Text Available Analysed by means of standard dendrochronological and dendroclimatological processes were about 100 spruce and larch samples from the lake areas of Jezera on Planina pri Jezeru, Jezera v Ledvicah and Krnsko Jezero, all in the Julian Alps. Local chronologies mainly include the period from 1920 onwards. Correlation between radial increments and climatic data confirmed certain general anticipations about the relation between climate and increments in the upper forest-line zone, and concurrently exposed the specific influence of local, including non-climatic factors on the growth which can not be satisfactory comprised in dendroclimatological analysis.

Collaborative Research for Water Resource Management under Climate Change Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Brundiers, K.; Garfin, G. M.; Gober, P.; Basile, G.; Bark, R. H.

2010-12-01

We present an ongoing project to co-produce science and policy called Collaborative Planning for Climate Change: An Integrated Approach to Water-Planning, Climate Downscaling, and Robust Decision-Making. The project responds to motivations related to dealing with sustainability challenges in research and practice: (a) state and municipal water managers seek research that addresses their planning needs; (b) the scientific literature and funding agencies call for more meaningful engagement between science and policy communities, in ways that address user needs, while advancing basic research; and (c) empirical research contributes to methods for the design and implementation of collaborative projects. To understand how climate change might impact water resources and management in the Southwest US, our project convenes local, state, and federal water management practitioners with climate-, hydrology-, policy-, and decision scientists. Three areas of research inform this collaboration: (a) the role of paleo-hydrology in water resources scenario construction; (b) the types of uncertainties that impact decision-making beyond climate and modeling uncertainty; and (c) basin-scale statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate models to generate hydrologic projections for regional water resources planning. The project engages all participants in the research process, from research design to workshops that build capacity for understanding data generation and sources of uncertainty to the discussion of water management decision contexts. A team of “science-practice translators” facilitates the collaboration between academic and professional communities. In this presentation we contextualize the challenges and opportunities of use-inspired science-policy research collaborations by contrasting the initial project design with the process of implementation. We draw from two sources to derive lessons learned: literature on collaborative research, and evaluations provided by

New local energy supply as a communal task. Solar statutes between local autonomy and global climatic and resources protection; Neue oertliche Energieversorgung als kommunale Aufgabe. Solarsatzungen zwischen gemeindlicher Selbstverwaltung und globalem Klima- und Ressourcenschutz

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Longo, Fabio

2010-07-01

Cities and communities have a constitutionally secured autonomy. What means this within the range of the protection of climate and resources? May communities take over global tasks, or are these limited in their local sphere of activity? In the meantime, in most German city halls something is done for the employment of renewable energies. Under this aspect, the author of the contribution under consideration reports at first on a comprehensive jurisprudential answer on the fundamental question which local tasks are entitled to the cities and communities and how this affects the range of climate protection and resources protection. Moreover, up-to-date particularly disputed local solar statutes are evaluated legally.

Generalized indices of a typical individual water-heating solar plant in the climatic conditions of Russia different regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popel', O.S.; Frid, S.E.; Shpil'rajn, Eh.Eh.

2003-01-01

By the example of the typical solar water-heating plant (SWP), designed for daily consumption of 100 l of heated water the calculation of the number of days in the year is accomplished, during which such a plant could provide for heating the water not below the assigned control level of 37, 45 and 55 deg C for various ratios between the solar collector square and tank-accumulator volume. The generalized dependences are obtained on the basis of processing the results of the SWP dynamic modeling with application of the typical meteoyears, generated for the climatic conditions of more than 40 populated localities in Russia both in its European and Asian part. The efficiency of the SWP operation in different regions of the country may be determined through their application [ru