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Sample records for linear models predicting

  1. Linear regression crash prediction models : issues and proposed solutions.

    2010-05-01

    The paper develops a linear regression model approach that can be applied to : crash data to predict vehicle crashes. The proposed approach involves novice data aggregation : to satisfy linear regression assumptions; namely error structure normality ...

  2. Modelling and Predicting Backstroke Start Performance Using Non-Linear and Linear Models.

    de Jesus, Karla; Ayala, Helon V H; de Jesus, Kelly; Coelho, Leandro Dos S; Medeiros, Alexandre I A; Abraldes, José A; Vaz, Mário A P; Fernandes, Ricardo J; Vilas-Boas, João Paulo

    2018-03-01

    Our aim was to compare non-linear and linear mathematical model responses for backstroke start performance prediction. Ten swimmers randomly completed eight 15 m backstroke starts with feet over the wedge, four with hands on the highest horizontal and four on the vertical handgrip. Swimmers were videotaped using a dual media camera set-up, with the starts being performed over an instrumented block with four force plates. Artificial neural networks were applied to predict 5 m start time using kinematic and kinetic variables and to determine the accuracy of the mean absolute percentage error. Artificial neural networks predicted start time more robustly than the linear model with respect to changing training to the validation dataset for the vertical handgrip (3.95 ± 1.67 vs. 5.92 ± 3.27%). Artificial neural networks obtained a smaller mean absolute percentage error than the linear model in the horizontal (0.43 ± 0.19 vs. 0.98 ± 0.19%) and vertical handgrip (0.45 ± 0.19 vs. 1.38 ± 0.30%) using all input data. The best artificial neural network validation revealed a smaller mean absolute error than the linear model for the horizontal (0.007 vs. 0.04 s) and vertical handgrip (0.01 vs. 0.03 s). Artificial neural networks should be used for backstroke 5 m start time prediction due to the quite small differences among the elite level performances.

  3. Predicting birth weight with conditionally linear transformation models.

    Möst, Lisa; Schmid, Matthias; Faschingbauer, Florian; Hothorn, Torsten

    2016-12-01

    Low and high birth weight (BW) are important risk factors for neonatal morbidity and mortality. Gynecologists must therefore accurately predict BW before delivery. Most prediction formulas for BW are based on prenatal ultrasound measurements carried out within one week prior to birth. Although successfully used in clinical practice, these formulas focus on point predictions of BW but do not systematically quantify uncertainty of the predictions, i.e. they result in estimates of the conditional mean of BW but do not deliver prediction intervals. To overcome this problem, we introduce conditionally linear transformation models (CLTMs) to predict BW. Instead of focusing only on the conditional mean, CLTMs model the whole conditional distribution function of BW given prenatal ultrasound parameters. Consequently, the CLTM approach delivers both point predictions of BW and fetus-specific prediction intervals. Prediction intervals constitute an easy-to-interpret measure of prediction accuracy and allow identification of fetuses subject to high prediction uncertainty. Using a data set of 8712 deliveries at the Perinatal Centre at the University Clinic Erlangen (Germany), we analyzed variants of CLTMs and compared them to standard linear regression estimation techniques used in the past and to quantile regression approaches. The best-performing CLTM variant was competitive with quantile regression and linear regression approaches in terms of conditional coverage and average length of the prediction intervals. We propose that CLTMs be used because they are able to account for possible heteroscedasticity, kurtosis, and skewness of the distribution of BWs. © The Author(s) 2014.

  4. Comparison of linear and non-linear models for predicting energy expenditure from raw accelerometer data.

    Montoye, Alexander H K; Begum, Munni; Henning, Zachary; Pfeiffer, Karin A

    2017-02-01

    This study had three purposes, all related to evaluating energy expenditure (EE) prediction accuracy from body-worn accelerometers: (1) compare linear regression to linear mixed models, (2) compare linear models to artificial neural network models, and (3) compare accuracy of accelerometers placed on the hip, thigh, and wrists. Forty individuals performed 13 activities in a 90 min semi-structured, laboratory-based protocol. Participants wore accelerometers on the right hip, right thigh, and both wrists and a portable metabolic analyzer (EE criterion). Four EE prediction models were developed for each accelerometer: linear regression, linear mixed, and two ANN models. EE prediction accuracy was assessed using correlations, root mean square error (RMSE), and bias and was compared across models and accelerometers using repeated-measures analysis of variance. For all accelerometer placements, there were no significant differences for correlations or RMSE between linear regression and linear mixed models (correlations: r  =  0.71-0.88, RMSE: 1.11-1.61 METs; p  >  0.05). For the thigh-worn accelerometer, there were no differences in correlations or RMSE between linear and ANN models (ANN-correlations: r  =  0.89, RMSE: 1.07-1.08 METs. Linear models-correlations: r  =  0.88, RMSE: 1.10-1.11 METs; p  >  0.05). Conversely, one ANN had higher correlations and lower RMSE than both linear models for the hip (ANN-correlation: r  =  0.88, RMSE: 1.12 METs. Linear models-correlations: r  =  0.86, RMSE: 1.18-1.19 METs; p  linear models for the wrist-worn accelerometers (ANN-correlations: r  =  0.82-0.84, RMSE: 1.26-1.32 METs. Linear models-correlations: r  =  0.71-0.73, RMSE: 1.55-1.61 METs; p  models offer a significant improvement in EE prediction accuracy over linear models. Conversely, linear models showed similar EE prediction accuracy to machine learning models for hip- and thigh

  5. An online re-linearization scheme suited for Model Predictive and Linear Quadratic Control

    Henriksen, Lars Christian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    This technical note documents the equations for primal-dual interior-point quadratic programming problem solver used for MPC. The algorithm exploits the special structure of the MPC problem and is able to reduce the computational burden such that the computational burden scales with prediction...... horizon length in a linear way rather than cubic, which would be the case if the structure was not exploited. It is also shown how models used for design of model-based controllers, e.g. linear quadratic and model predictive, can be linearized both at equilibrium and non-equilibrium points, making...

  6. Model Predictive Control for Linear Complementarity and Extended Linear Complementarity Systems

    Bambang Riyanto

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose model predictive control method for linear complementarity and extended linear complementarity systems by formulating optimization along prediction horizon as mixed integer quadratic program. Such systems contain interaction between continuous dynamics and discrete event systems, and therefore, can be categorized as hybrid systems. As linear complementarity and extended linear complementarity systems finds applications in different research areas, such as impact mechanical systems, traffic control and process control, this work will contribute to the development of control design method for those areas as well, as shown by three given examples.

  7. Comparison of Linear Prediction Models for Audio Signals

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available While linear prediction (LP has become immensely popular in speech modeling, it does not seem to provide a good approach for modeling audio signals. This is somewhat surprising, since a tonal signal consisting of a number of sinusoids can be perfectly predicted based on an (all-pole LP model with a model order that is twice the number of sinusoids. We provide an explanation why this result cannot simply be extrapolated to LP of audio signals. If noise is taken into account in the tonal signal model, a low-order all-pole model appears to be only appropriate when the tonal components are uniformly distributed in the Nyquist interval. Based on this observation, different alternatives to the conventional LP model can be suggested. Either the model should be changed to a pole-zero, a high-order all-pole, or a pitch prediction model, or the conventional LP model should be preceded by an appropriate frequency transform, such as a frequency warping or downsampling. By comparing these alternative LP models to the conventional LP model in terms of frequency estimation accuracy, residual spectral flatness, and perceptual frequency resolution, we obtain several new and promising approaches to LP-based audio modeling.

  8. Technical note: A linear model for predicting δ13 Cprotein.

    Pestle, William J; Hubbe, Mark; Smith, Erin K; Stevenson, Joseph M

    2015-08-01

    Development of a model for the prediction of δ(13) Cprotein from δ(13) Ccollagen and Δ(13) Cap-co . Model-generated values could, in turn, serve as "consumer" inputs for multisource mixture modeling of paleodiet. Linear regression analysis of previously published controlled diet data facilitated the development of a mathematical model for predicting δ(13) Cprotein (and an experimentally generated error term) from isotopic data routinely generated during the analysis of osseous remains (δ(13) Cco and Δ(13) Cap-co ). Regression analysis resulted in a two-term linear model (δ(13) Cprotein (%) = (0.78 × δ(13) Cco ) - (0.58× Δ(13) Cap-co ) - 4.7), possessing a high R-value of 0.93 (r(2)  = 0.86, P analysis of human osseous remains. These predicted values are ideal for use in multisource mixture modeling of dietary protein source contribution. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Predicting Madura cattle growth curve using non-linear model

    Widyas, N.; Prastowo, S.; Widi, T. S. M.; Baliarti, E.

    2018-03-01

    Madura cattle is Indonesian native. It is a composite breed that has undergone hundreds of years of selection and domestication to reach nowadays remarkable uniformity. Crossbreeding has reached the isle of Madura and the Madrasin, a cross between Madura cows and Limousine semen emerged. This paper aimed to compare the growth curve between Madrasin and one type of pure Madura cows, the common Madura cattle (Madura) using non-linear models. Madura cattles are kept traditionally thus reliable records are hardly available. Data were collected from small holder farmers in Madura. Cows from different age classes (5years) were observed, and body measurements (chest girth, body length and wither height) were taken. In total 63 Madura and 120 Madrasin records obtained. Linear model was built with cattle sub-populations and age as explanatory variables. Body weights were estimated based on the chest girth. Growth curves were built using logistic regression. Results showed that within the same age, Madrasin has significantly larger body compared to Madura (plogistic models fit better for Madura and Madrasin cattle data; with the estimated MSE for these models were 39.09 and 759.28 with prediction accuracy of 99 and 92% for Madura and Madrasin, respectively. Prediction of growth curve using logistic regression model performed well in both types of Madura cattle. However, attempts to administer accurate data on Madura cattle are necessary to better characterize and study these cattle.

  10. Linear-quadratic model predictions for tumor control probability

    Yaes, R.J.

    1987-01-01

    Sigmoid dose-response curves for tumor control are calculated from the linear-quadratic model parameters α and Β, obtained from human epidermoid carcinoma cell lines, and are much steeper than the clinical dose-response curves for head and neck cancers. One possible explanation is the presence of small radiation-resistant clones arising from mutations in an initially homogeneous tumor. Using the mutation theory of Delbruck and Luria and of Goldie and Coldman, the authors discuss the implications of such radiation-resistant clones for clinical radiation therapy

  11. Genomic prediction based on data from three layer lines using non-linear regression models.

    Huang, Heyun; Windig, Jack J; Vereijken, Addie; Calus, Mario P L

    2014-11-06

    Most studies on genomic prediction with reference populations that include multiple lines or breeds have used linear models. Data heterogeneity due to using multiple populations may conflict with model assumptions used in linear regression methods. In an attempt to alleviate potential discrepancies between assumptions of linear models and multi-population data, two types of alternative models were used: (1) a multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model that modelled trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits and (2) non-linear models based on kernel learning. These models were compared to conventional linear models for genomic prediction for two lines of brown layer hens (B1 and B2) and one line of white hens (W1). The three lines each had 1004 to 1023 training and 238 to 240 validation animals. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by estimating the correlation between observed phenotypes and predicted breeding values. When the training dataset included only data from the evaluated line, non-linear models yielded at best a similar accuracy as linear models. In some cases, when adding a distantly related line, the linear models showed a slight decrease in performance, while non-linear models generally showed no change in accuracy. When only information from a closely related line was used for training, linear models and non-linear radial basis function (RBF) kernel models performed similarly. The multi-trait GBLUP model took advantage of the estimated genetic correlations between the lines. Combining linear and non-linear models improved the accuracy of multi-line genomic prediction. Linear models and non-linear RBF models performed very similarly for genomic prediction, despite the expectation that non-linear models could deal better with the heterogeneous multi-population data. This heterogeneity of the data can be overcome by modelling trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits, which avoids the occasional

  12. An improved robust model predictive control for linear parameter-varying input-output models

    Abbas, H.S.; Hanema, J.; Tóth, R.; Mohammadpour, J.; Meskin, N.

    2018-01-01

    This paper describes a new robust model predictive control (MPC) scheme to control the discrete-time linear parameter-varying input-output models subject to input and output constraints. Closed-loop asymptotic stability is guaranteed by including a quadratic terminal cost and an ellipsoidal terminal

  13. Warped Linear Prediction of Physical Model Excitations with Applications in Audio Compression and Instrument Synthesis

    Glass, Alexis; Fukudome, Kimitoshi

    2004-12-01

    A sound recording of a plucked string instrument is encoded and resynthesized using two stages of prediction. In the first stage of prediction, a simple physical model of a plucked string is estimated and the instrument excitation is obtained. The second stage of prediction compensates for the simplicity of the model in the first stage by encoding either the instrument excitation or the model error using warped linear prediction. These two methods of compensation are compared with each other, and to the case of single-stage warped linear prediction, adjustments are introduced, and their applications to instrument synthesis and MPEG4's audio compression within the structured audio format are discussed.

  14. Genomic prediction based on data from three layer lines using non-linear regression models

    Huang, H.; Windig, J.J.; Vereijken, A.; Calus, M.P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Background - Most studies on genomic prediction with reference populations that include multiple lines or breeds have used linear models. Data heterogeneity due to using multiple populations may conflict with model assumptions used in linear regression methods. Methods - In an attempt to alleviate

  15. Predicting recycling behaviour: Comparison of a linear regression model and a fuzzy logic model.

    Vesely, Stepan; Klöckner, Christian A; Dohnal, Mirko

    2016-03-01

    In this paper we demonstrate that fuzzy logic can provide a better tool for predicting recycling behaviour than the customarily used linear regression. To show this, we take a set of empirical data on recycling behaviour (N=664), which we randomly divide into two halves. The first half is used to estimate a linear regression model of recycling behaviour, and to develop a fuzzy logic model of recycling behaviour. As the first comparison, the fit of both models to the data included in estimation of the models (N=332) is evaluated. As the second comparison, predictive accuracy of both models for "new" cases (hold-out data not included in building the models, N=332) is assessed. In both cases, the fuzzy logic model significantly outperforms the regression model in terms of fit. To conclude, when accurate predictions of recycling and possibly other environmental behaviours are needed, fuzzy logic modelling seems to be a promising technique. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Comparison between linear and non-parametric regression models for genome-enabled prediction in wheat.

    Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

    2012-12-01

    In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models.

  17. Prediction of minimum temperatures in an alpine region by linear and non-linear post-processing of meteorological models

    R. Barbiero

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Model Output Statistics (MOS refers to a method of post-processing the direct outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP models in order to reduce the biases introduced by a coarse horizontal resolution. This technique is especially useful in orographically complex regions, where large differences can be found between the NWP elevation model and the true orography. This study carries out a comparison of linear and non-linear MOS methods, aimed at the prediction of minimum temperatures in a fruit-growing region of the Italian Alps, based on the output of two different NWPs (ECMWF T511–L60 and LAMI-3. Temperature, of course, is a particularly important NWP output; among other roles it drives the local frost forecast, which is of great interest to agriculture. The mechanisms of cold air drainage, a distinctive aspect of mountain environments, are often unsatisfactorily captured by global circulation models. The simplest post-processing technique applied in this work was a correction for the mean bias, assessed at individual model grid points. We also implemented a multivariate linear regression on the output at the grid points surrounding the target area, and two non-linear models based on machine learning techniques: Neural Networks and Random Forest. We compare the performance of all these techniques on four different NWP data sets. Downscaling the temperatures clearly improved the temperature forecasts with respect to the raw NWP output, and also with respect to the basic mean bias correction. Multivariate methods generally yielded better results, but the advantage of using non-linear algorithms was small if not negligible. RF, the best performing method, was implemented on ECMWF prognostic output at 06:00 UTC over the 9 grid points surrounding the target area. Mean absolute errors in the prediction of 2 m temperature at 06:00 UTC were approximately 1.2°C, close to the natural variability inside the area itself.

  18. Linear and Non-linear Multi-Input Multi-Output Model Predictive Control of Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor

    Muayad Al-Qaisy

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In this article, multi-input multi-output (MIMO linear model predictive controller (LMPC based on state space model and nonlinear model predictive controller based on neural network (NNMPC are applied on a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR. The idea is to have a good control system that will be able to give optimal performance, reject high load disturbance, and track set point change. In order to study the performance of the two model predictive controllers, MIMO Proportional-Integral-Derivative controller (PID strategy is used as benchmark. The LMPC, NNMPC, and PID strategies are used for controlling the residual concentration (CA and reactor temperature (T. NNMPC control shows a superior performance over the LMPC and PID controllers by presenting a smaller overshoot and shorter settling time.

  19. Linear Models

    Searle, Shayle R

    2012-01-01

    This 1971 classic on linear models is once again available--as a Wiley Classics Library Edition. It features material that can be understood by any statistician who understands matrix algebra and basic statistical methods.

  20. Bayesian prediction of spatial count data using generalized linear mixed models

    Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge

    2002-01-01

    Spatial weed count data are modeled and predicted using a generalized linear mixed model combined with a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Informative priors for a data set with sparse sampling are elicited using a previously collected data set with extensive sampling. Furthermore, ...

  1. Predicting musically induced emotions from physiological inputs: linear and neural network models.

    Russo, Frank A; Vempala, Naresh N; Sandstrom, Gillian M

    2013-01-01

    Listening to music often leads to physiological responses. Do these physiological responses contain sufficient information to infer emotion induced in the listener? The current study explores this question by attempting to predict judgments of "felt" emotion from physiological responses alone using linear and neural network models. We measured five channels of peripheral physiology from 20 participants-heart rate (HR), respiration, galvanic skin response, and activity in corrugator supercilii and zygomaticus major facial muscles. Using valence and arousal (VA) dimensions, participants rated their felt emotion after listening to each of 12 classical music excerpts. After extracting features from the five channels, we examined their correlation with VA ratings, and then performed multiple linear regression to see if a linear relationship between the physiological responses could account for the ratings. Although linear models predicted a significant amount of variance in arousal ratings, they were unable to do so with valence ratings. We then used a neural network to provide a non-linear account of the ratings. The network was trained on the mean ratings of eight of the 12 excerpts and tested on the remainder. Performance of the neural network confirms that physiological responses alone can be used to predict musically induced emotion. The non-linear model derived from the neural network was more accurate than linear models derived from multiple linear regression, particularly along the valence dimension. A secondary analysis allowed us to quantify the relative contributions of inputs to the non-linear model. The study represents a novel approach to understanding the complex relationship between physiological responses and musically induced emotion.

  2. Prediction of Mind-Wandering with Electroencephalogram and Non-linear Regression Modeling.

    Kawashima, Issaku; Kumano, Hiroaki

    2017-01-01

    Mind-wandering (MW), task-unrelated thought, has been examined by researchers in an increasing number of articles using models to predict whether subjects are in MW, using numerous physiological variables. However, these models are not applicable in general situations. Moreover, they output only binary classification. The current study suggests that the combination of electroencephalogram (EEG) variables and non-linear regression modeling can be a good indicator of MW intensity. We recorded EEGs of 50 subjects during the performance of a Sustained Attention to Response Task, including a thought sampling probe that inquired the focus of attention. We calculated the power and coherence value and prepared 35 patterns of variable combinations and applied Support Vector machine Regression (SVR) to them. Finally, we chose four SVR models: two of them non-linear models and the others linear models; two of the four models are composed of a limited number of electrodes to satisfy model usefulness. Examination using the held-out data indicated that all models had robust predictive precision and provided significantly better estimations than a linear regression model using single electrode EEG variables. Furthermore, in limited electrode condition, non-linear SVR model showed significantly better precision than linear SVR model. The method proposed in this study helps investigations into MW in various little-examined situations. Further, by measuring MW with a high temporal resolution EEG, unclear aspects of MW, such as time series variation, are expected to be revealed. Furthermore, our suggestion that a few electrodes can also predict MW contributes to the development of neuro-feedback studies.

  3. Prediction of Mind-Wandering with Electroencephalogram and Non-linear Regression Modeling

    Issaku Kawashima

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Mind-wandering (MW, task-unrelated thought, has been examined by researchers in an increasing number of articles using models to predict whether subjects are in MW, using numerous physiological variables. However, these models are not applicable in general situations. Moreover, they output only binary classification. The current study suggests that the combination of electroencephalogram (EEG variables and non-linear regression modeling can be a good indicator of MW intensity. We recorded EEGs of 50 subjects during the performance of a Sustained Attention to Response Task, including a thought sampling probe that inquired the focus of attention. We calculated the power and coherence value and prepared 35 patterns of variable combinations and applied Support Vector machine Regression (SVR to them. Finally, we chose four SVR models: two of them non-linear models and the others linear models; two of the four models are composed of a limited number of electrodes to satisfy model usefulness. Examination using the held-out data indicated that all models had robust predictive precision and provided significantly better estimations than a linear regression model using single electrode EEG variables. Furthermore, in limited electrode condition, non-linear SVR model showed significantly better precision than linear SVR model. The method proposed in this study helps investigations into MW in various little-examined situations. Further, by measuring MW with a high temporal resolution EEG, unclear aspects of MW, such as time series variation, are expected to be revealed. Furthermore, our suggestion that a few electrodes can also predict MW contributes to the development of neuro-feedback studies.

  4. A national-scale model of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity.

    Sullivan, Martin J P; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Newson, Stuart E; Scholefield, Paul; Brereton, Tom; Oliver, Tom H

    2017-12-01

    Modelling species distribution and abundance is important for many conservation applications, but it is typically performed using relatively coarse-scale environmental variables such as the area of broad land-cover types. Fine-scale environmental data capturing the most biologically relevant variables have the potential to improve these models. For example, field studies have demonstrated the importance of linear features, such as hedgerows, for multiple taxa, but the absence of large-scale datasets of their extent prevents their inclusion in large-scale modelling studies.We assessed whether a novel spatial dataset mapping linear and woody-linear features across the UK improves the performance of abundance models of 18 bird and 24 butterfly species across 3723 and 1547 UK monitoring sites, respectively.Although improvements in explanatory power were small, the inclusion of linear features data significantly improved model predictive performance for many species. For some species, the importance of linear features depended on landscape context, with greater importance in agricultural areas. Synthesis and applications . This study demonstrates that a national-scale model of the extent and distribution of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity. The ability to model spatial variability in the role of linear features such as hedgerows will be important in targeting agri-environment schemes to maximally deliver biodiversity benefits. Although this study focuses on farmland, data on the extent of different linear features are likely to improve species distribution and abundance models in a wide range of systems and also can potentially be used to assess habitat connectivity.

  5. Linear and nonlinear models for predicting fish bioconcentration factors for pesticides.

    Yuan, Jintao; Xie, Chun; Zhang, Ting; Sun, Jinfang; Yuan, Xuejie; Yu, Shuling; Zhang, Yingbiao; Cao, Yunyuan; Yu, Xingchen; Yang, Xuan; Yao, Wu

    2016-08-01

    This work is devoted to the applications of the multiple linear regression (MLR), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP NN) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to quantitative structure-property relationship analysis of bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of pesticides tested on Bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus). Molecular descriptors of a total of 107 pesticides were calculated with the DRAGON Software and selected by inverse enhanced replacement method. Based on the selected DRAGON descriptors, a linear model was built by MLR, nonlinear models were developed using MLP NN and PPR. The robustness of the obtained models was assessed by cross-validation and external validation using test set. Outliers were also examined and deleted to improve predictive power. Comparative results revealed that PPR achieved the most accurate predictions. This study offers useful models and information for BCF prediction, risk assessment, and pesticide formulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Using Hierarchical Linear Modelling to Examine Factors Predicting English Language Students' Reading Achievement

    Fung, Karen; ElAtia, Samira

    2015-01-01

    Using Hierarchical Linear Modelling (HLM), this study aimed to identify factors such as ESL/ELL/EAL status that would predict students' reading performance in an English language arts exam taken across Canada. Using data from the 2007 administration of the Pan-Canadian Assessment Program (PCAP) along with the accompanying surveys for students and…

  7. A Decomposition Algorithm for Mean-Variance Economic Model Predictive Control of Stochastic Linear Systems

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Dammann, Bernd; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a decomposition algorithm for solving the optimal control problem (OCP) that arises in Mean-Variance Economic Model Predictive Control of stochastic linear systems. The algorithm applies the alternating direction method of multipliers to a reformulation of the OCP...

  8. Model for predicting non-linear crack growth considering load sequence effects (LOSEQ)

    Fuehring, H.

    1982-01-01

    A new analytical model for predicting non-linear crack growth is presented which takes into account the retardation as well as the acceleration effects due to irregular loading. It considers not only the maximum peak of a load sequence to effect crack growth but also all other loads of the history according to a generalised memory criterion. Comparisons between crack growth predicted by using the LOSEQ-programme and experimentally observed data are presented. (orig.) [de

  9. Improving the Prediction of Total Surgical Procedure Time Using Linear Regression Modeling.

    Edelman, Eric R; van Kuijk, Sander M J; Hamaekers, Ankie E W; de Korte, Marcel J M; van Merode, Godefridus G; Buhre, Wolfgang F F A

    2017-01-01

    For efficient utilization of operating rooms (ORs), accurate schedules of assigned block time and sequences of patient cases need to be made. The quality of these planning tools is dependent on the accurate prediction of total procedure time (TPT) per case. In this paper, we attempt to improve the accuracy of TPT predictions by using linear regression models based on estimated surgeon-controlled time (eSCT) and other variables relevant to TPT. We extracted data from a Dutch benchmarking database of all surgeries performed in six academic hospitals in The Netherlands from 2012 till 2016. The final dataset consisted of 79,983 records, describing 199,772 h of total OR time. Potential predictors of TPT that were included in the subsequent analysis were eSCT, patient age, type of operation, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, and type of anesthesia used. First, we computed the predicted TPT based on a previously described fixed ratio model for each record, multiplying eSCT by 1.33. This number is based on the research performed by van Veen-Berkx et al., which showed that 33% of SCT is generally a good approximation of anesthesia-controlled time (ACT). We then systematically tested all possible linear regression models to predict TPT using eSCT in combination with the other available independent variables. In addition, all regression models were again tested without eSCT as a predictor to predict ACT separately (which leads to TPT by adding SCT). TPT was most accurately predicted using a linear regression model based on the independent variables eSCT, type of operation, ASA classification, and type of anesthesia. This model performed significantly better than the fixed ratio model and the method of predicting ACT separately. Making use of these more accurate predictions in planning and sequencing algorithms may enable an increase in utilization of ORs, leading to significant financial and productivity related benefits.

  10. Improving the Prediction of Total Surgical Procedure Time Using Linear Regression Modeling

    Eric R. Edelman

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available For efficient utilization of operating rooms (ORs, accurate schedules of assigned block time and sequences of patient cases need to be made. The quality of these planning tools is dependent on the accurate prediction of total procedure time (TPT per case. In this paper, we attempt to improve the accuracy of TPT predictions by using linear regression models based on estimated surgeon-controlled time (eSCT and other variables relevant to TPT. We extracted data from a Dutch benchmarking database of all surgeries performed in six academic hospitals in The Netherlands from 2012 till 2016. The final dataset consisted of 79,983 records, describing 199,772 h of total OR time. Potential predictors of TPT that were included in the subsequent analysis were eSCT, patient age, type of operation, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA physical status classification, and type of anesthesia used. First, we computed the predicted TPT based on a previously described fixed ratio model for each record, multiplying eSCT by 1.33. This number is based on the research performed by van Veen-Berkx et al., which showed that 33% of SCT is generally a good approximation of anesthesia-controlled time (ACT. We then systematically tested all possible linear regression models to predict TPT using eSCT in combination with the other available independent variables. In addition, all regression models were again tested without eSCT as a predictor to predict ACT separately (which leads to TPT by adding SCT. TPT was most accurately predicted using a linear regression model based on the independent variables eSCT, type of operation, ASA classification, and type of anesthesia. This model performed significantly better than the fixed ratio model and the method of predicting ACT separately. Making use of these more accurate predictions in planning and sequencing algorithms may enable an increase in utilization of ORs, leading to significant financial and productivity related

  11. Predicting recovery of cognitive function soon after stroke: differential modeling of logarithmic and linear regression.

    Suzuki, Makoto; Sugimura, Yuko; Yamada, Sumio; Omori, Yoshitsugu; Miyamoto, Masaaki; Yamamoto, Jun-ichi

    2013-01-01

    Cognitive disorders in the acute stage of stroke are common and are important independent predictors of adverse outcome in the long term. Despite the impact of cognitive disorders on both patients and their families, it is still difficult to predict the extent or duration of cognitive impairments. The objective of the present study was, therefore, to provide data on predicting the recovery of cognitive function soon after stroke by differential modeling with logarithmic and linear regression. This study included two rounds of data collection comprising 57 stroke patients enrolled in the first round for the purpose of identifying the time course of cognitive recovery in the early-phase group data, and 43 stroke patients in the second round for the purpose of ensuring that the correlation of the early-phase group data applied to the prediction of each individual's degree of cognitive recovery. In the first round, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores were assessed 3 times during hospitalization, and the scores were regressed on the logarithm and linear of time. In the second round, calculations of MMSE scores were made for the first two scoring times after admission to tailor the structures of logarithmic and linear regression formulae to fit an individual's degree of functional recovery. The time course of early-phase recovery for cognitive functions resembled both logarithmic and linear functions. However, MMSE scores sampled at two baseline points based on logarithmic regression modeling could estimate prediction of cognitive recovery more accurately than could linear regression modeling (logarithmic modeling, R(2) = 0.676, PLogarithmic modeling based on MMSE scores could accurately predict the recovery of cognitive function soon after the occurrence of stroke. This logarithmic modeling with mathematical procedures is simple enough to be adopted in daily clinical practice.

  12. Iterated non-linear model predictive control based on tubes and contractive constraints.

    Murillo, M; Sánchez, G; Giovanini, L

    2016-05-01

    This paper presents a predictive control algorithm for non-linear systems based on successive linearizations of the non-linear dynamic around a given trajectory. A linear time varying model is obtained and the non-convex constrained optimization problem is transformed into a sequence of locally convex ones. The robustness of the proposed algorithm is addressed adding a convex contractive constraint. To account for linearization errors and to obtain more accurate results an inner iteration loop is added to the algorithm. A simple methodology to obtain an outer bounding-tube for state trajectories is also presented. The convergence of the iterative process and the stability of the closed-loop system are analyzed. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in controlling a quadcopter type unmanned aerial vehicle. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Quantifying the predictive consequences of model error with linear subspace analysis

    White, Jeremy T.; Doherty, John E.; Hughes, Joseph D.

    2014-01-01

    All computer models are simplified and imperfect simulators of complex natural systems. The discrepancy arising from simplification induces bias in model predictions, which may be amplified by the process of model calibration. This paper presents a new method to identify and quantify the predictive consequences of calibrating a simplified computer model. The method is based on linear theory, and it scales efficiently to the large numbers of parameters and observations characteristic of groundwater and petroleum reservoir models. The method is applied to a range of predictions made with a synthetic integrated surface-water/groundwater model with thousands of parameters. Several different observation processing strategies and parameterization/regularization approaches are examined in detail, including use of the Karhunen-Loève parameter transformation. Predictive bias arising from model error is shown to be prediction specific and often invisible to the modeler. The amount of calibration-induced bias is influenced by several factors, including how expert knowledge is applied in the design of parameterization schemes, the number of parameters adjusted during calibration, how observations and model-generated counterparts are processed, and the level of fit with observations achieved through calibration. Failure to properly implement any of these factors in a prediction-specific manner may increase the potential for predictive bias in ways that are not visible to the calibration and uncertainty analysis process.

  14. Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Optimization of Spray Dryer Operation

    Petersen, Lars Norbert; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we compare the performance of an economically optimizing Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller (E-NMPC) to a linear tracking Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for a spray drying plant. We find in this simulation study, that the economic performance of the two controllers are almost...... equal. We evaluate the economic performance with an industrially recorded disturbance scenario, where unmeasured disturbances and model mismatch are present. The state of the spray dryer, used in the E-NMPC and MPC, is estimated using Kalman Filters with noise covariances estimated by a maximum...

  15. Predicting musically induced emotions from physiological inputs: Linear and neural network models

    Frank A. Russo

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Listening to music often leads to physiological responses. Do these physiological responses contain sufficient information to infer emotion induced in the listener? The current study explores this question by attempting to predict judgments of 'felt' emotion from physiological responses alone using linear and neural network models. We measured five channels of peripheral physiology from 20 participants – heart rate, respiration, galvanic skin response, and activity in corrugator supercilii and zygomaticus major facial muscles. Using valence and arousal (VA dimensions, participants rated their felt emotion after listening to each of 12 classical music excerpts. After extracting features from the five channels, we examined their correlation with VA ratings, and then performed multiple linear regression to see if a linear relationship between the physiological responses could account for the ratings. Although linear models predicted a significant amount of variance in arousal ratings, they were unable to do so with valence ratings. We then used a neural network to provide a nonlinear account of the ratings. The network was trained on the mean ratings of eight of the 12 excerpts and tested on the remainder. Performance of the neural network confirms that physiological responses alone can be used to predict musically induced emotion. The nonlinear model derived from the neural network was more accurate than linear models derived from multiple linear regression, particularly along the valence dimension. A secondary analysis allowed us to quantify the relative contributions of inputs to the nonlinear model. The study represents a novel approach to understanding the complex relationship between physiological responses and musically induced emotion.

  16. Convergence Guaranteed Nonlinear Constraint Model Predictive Control via I/O Linearization

    Xiaobing Kong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Constituting reliable optimal solution is a key issue for the nonlinear constrained model predictive control. Input-output feedback linearization is a popular method in nonlinear control. By using an input-output feedback linearizing controller, the original linear input constraints will change to nonlinear constraints and sometimes the constraints are state dependent. This paper presents an iterative quadratic program (IQP routine on the continuous-time system. To guarantee its convergence, another iterative approach is incorporated. The proposed algorithm can reach a feasible solution over the entire prediction horizon. Simulation results on both a numerical example and the continuous stirred tank reactors (CSTR demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  17. Biochemical methane potential prediction of plant biomasses: Comparing chemical composition versus near infrared methods and linear versus non-linear models.

    Godin, Bruno; Mayer, Frédéric; Agneessens, Richard; Gerin, Patrick; Dardenne, Pierre; Delfosse, Philippe; Delcarte, Jérôme

    2015-01-01

    The reliability of different models to predict the biochemical methane potential (BMP) of various plant biomasses using a multispecies dataset was compared. The most reliable prediction models of the BMP were those based on the near infrared (NIR) spectrum compared to those based on the chemical composition. The NIR predictions of local (specific regression and non-linear) models were able to estimate quantitatively, rapidly, cheaply and easily the BMP. Such a model could be further used for biomethanation plant management and optimization. The predictions of non-linear models were more reliable compared to those of linear models. The presentation form (green-dried, silage-dried and silage-wet form) of biomasses to the NIR spectrometer did not influence the performances of the NIR prediction models. The accuracy of the BMP method should be improved to enhance further the BMP prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. [Prediction model of health workforce and beds in county hospitals of Hunan by multiple linear regression].

    Ling, Ru; Liu, Jiawang

    2011-12-01

    To construct prediction model for health workforce and hospital beds in county hospitals of Hunan by multiple linear regression. We surveyed 16 counties in Hunan with stratified random sampling according to uniform questionnaires,and multiple linear regression analysis with 20 quotas selected by literature view was done. Independent variables in the multiple linear regression model on medical personnels in county hospitals included the counties' urban residents' income, crude death rate, medical beds, business occupancy, professional equipment value, the number of devices valued above 10 000 yuan, fixed assets, long-term debt, medical income, medical expenses, outpatient and emergency visits, hospital visits, actual available bed days, and utilization rate of hospital beds. Independent variables in the multiple linear regression model on county hospital beds included the the population of aged 65 and above in the counties, disposable income of urban residents, medical personnel of medical institutions in county area, business occupancy, the total value of professional equipment, fixed assets, long-term debt, medical income, medical expenses, outpatient and emergency visits, hospital visits, actual available bed days, utilization rate of hospital beds, and length of hospitalization. The prediction model shows good explanatory and fitting, and may be used for short- and mid-term forecasting.

  19. Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

    MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

  20. Flexible non-linear predictive models for large-scale wind turbine diagnostics

    Bach-Andersen, Martin; Rømer-Odgaard, Bo; Winther, Ole

    2017-01-01

    We demonstrate how flexible non-linear models can provide accurate and robust predictions on turbine component temperature sensor data using data-driven principles and only a minimum of system modeling. The merits of different model architectures are evaluated using data from a large set...... of turbines operating under diverse conditions. We then go on to test the predictive models in a diagnostic setting, where the output of the models are used to detect mechanical faults in rotor bearings. Using retrospective data from 22 actual rotor bearing failures, the fault detection performance...... of the models are quantified using a structured framework that provides the metrics required for evaluating the performance in a fleet wide monitoring setup. It is demonstrated that faults are identified with high accuracy up to 45 days before a warning from the hard-threshold warning system....

  1. Improving sub-pixel imperviousness change prediction by ensembling heterogeneous non-linear regression models

    Drzewiecki, Wojciech

    2016-12-01

    In this work nine non-linear regression models were compared for sub-pixel impervious surface area mapping from Landsat images. The comparison was done in three study areas both for accuracy of imperviousness coverage evaluation in individual points in time and accuracy of imperviousness change assessment. The performance of individual machine learning algorithms (Cubist, Random Forest, stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees, k-nearest neighbors regression, random k-nearest neighbors regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, averaged neural networks, and support vector machines with polynomial and radial kernels) was also compared with the performance of heterogeneous model ensembles constructed from the best models trained using particular techniques. The results proved that in case of sub-pixel evaluation the most accurate prediction of change may not necessarily be based on the most accurate individual assessments. When single methods are considered, based on obtained results Cubist algorithm may be advised for Landsat based mapping of imperviousness for single dates. However, Random Forest may be endorsed when the most reliable evaluation of imperviousness change is the primary goal. It gave lower accuracies for individual assessments, but better prediction of change due to more correlated errors of individual predictions. Heterogeneous model ensembles performed for individual time points assessments at least as well as the best individual models. In case of imperviousness change assessment the ensembles always outperformed single model approaches. It means that it is possible to improve the accuracy of sub-pixel imperviousness change assessment using ensembles of heterogeneous non-linear regression models.

  2. Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics.

    Madarang, Krish J; Kang, Joo-Hyon

    2014-06-01

    Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days (ADD), have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid (TSS) discharge loads and event mean concentrations (EMC) were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R(2) and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data. Copyright © 2014 The Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. EVALUATING PREDICTIVE ERRORS OF A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL MODEL USING A GENERAL LINEAR MODEL AND LEAST SQUARE MEANS

    A General Linear Model (GLM) was used to evaluate the deviation of predicted values from expected values for a complex environmental model. For this demonstration, we used the default level interface of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM) to simulate epilimnetic total mer...

  4. Dynamics and control of quadcopter using linear model predictive control approach

    Islam, M.; Okasha, M.; Idres, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    This paper investigates the dynamics and control of a quadcopter using the Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach. The dynamic model is of high fidelity and nonlinear, with six degrees of freedom that include disturbances and model uncertainties. The control approach is developed based on MPC to track different reference trajectories ranging from simple ones such as circular to complex helical trajectories. In this control technique, a linearized model is derived and the receding horizon method is applied to generate the optimal control sequence. Although MPC is computer expensive, it is highly effective to deal with the different types of nonlinearities and constraints such as actuators’ saturation and model uncertainties. The MPC parameters (control and prediction horizons) are selected by trial-and-error approach. Several simulation scenarios are performed to examine and evaluate the performance of the proposed control approach using MATLAB and Simulink environment. Simulation results show that this control approach is highly effective to track a given reference trajectory.

  5. The Dangers of Estimating V˙O2max Using Linear, Nonexercise Prediction Models.

    Nevill, Alan M; Cooke, Carlton B

    2017-05-01

    This study aimed to compare the accuracy and goodness of fit of two competing models (linear vs allometric) when estimating V˙O2max (mL·kg·min) using nonexercise prediction models. The two competing models were fitted to the V˙O2max (mL·kg·min) data taken from two previously published studies. Study 1 (the Allied Dunbar National Fitness Survey) recruited 1732 randomly selected healthy participants, 16 yr and older, from 30 English parliamentary constituencies. Estimates of V˙O2max were obtained using a progressive incremental test on a motorized treadmill. In study 2, maximal oxygen uptake was measured directly during a fatigue limited treadmill test in older men (n = 152) and women (n = 146) 55 to 86 yr old. In both studies, the quality of fit associated with estimating V˙O2max (mL·kg·min) was superior using allometric rather than linear (additive) models based on all criteria (R, maximum log-likelihood, and Akaike information criteria). Results suggest that linear models will systematically overestimate V˙O2max for participants in their 20s and underestimate V˙O2max for participants in their 60s and older. The residuals saved from the linear models were neither normally distributed nor independent of the predicted values nor age. This will probably explain the absence of a key quadratic age term in the linear models, crucially identified using allometric models. Not only does the curvilinear age decline within an exponential function follow a more realistic age decline (the right-hand side of a bell-shaped curve), but the allometric models identified either a stature-to-body mass ratio (study 1) or a fat-free mass-to-body mass ratio (study 2), both associated with leanness when estimating V˙O2max. Adopting allometric models will provide more accurate predictions of V˙O2max (mL·kg·min) using plausible, biologically sound, and interpretable models.

  6. A Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition algorithm for linear economic model predictive control of dynamically decoupled subsystems

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Standardi, Laura; Edlund, Kristian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a warm-started Dantzig–Wolfe decomposition algorithm tailored to economic model predictive control of dynamically decoupled subsystems. We formulate the constrained optimal control problem solved at each sampling instant as a linear program with state space constraints, input...... limits, input rate limits, and soft output limits. The objective function of the linear program is related directly to the cost of operating the subsystems, and the cost of violating the soft output constraints. Simulations for large-scale economic power dispatch problems show that the proposed algorithm...... is significantly faster than both state-of-the-art linear programming solvers, and a structure exploiting implementation of the alternating direction method of multipliers. It is also demonstrated that the control strategy presented in this paper can be tuned using a weighted ℓ1-regularization term...

  7. Linear Model-Based Predictive Control of the LHC 1.8 K Cryogenic Loop

    Blanco-Viñuela, E; De Prada-Moraga, C

    1999-01-01

    The LHC accelerator will employ 1800 superconducting magnets (for guidance and focusing of the particle beams) in a pressurized superfluid helium bath at 1.9 K. This temperature is a severely constrained control parameter in order to avoid the transition from the superconducting to the normal state. Cryogenic processes are difficult to regulate due to their highly non-linear physical parameters (heat capacity, thermal conductance, etc.) and undesirable peculiarities like non self-regulating process, inverse response and variable dead time. To reduce the requirements on either temperature sensor or cryogenic system performance, various control strategies have been investigated on a reduced-scale LHC prototype built at CERN (String Test). Model Based Predictive Control (MBPC) is a regulation algorithm based on the explicit use of a process model to forecast the plant output over a certain prediction horizon. This predicted controlled variable is used in an on-line optimization procedure that minimizes an approp...

  8. Robust Model Predictive Control Using Linear Matrix Inequalities for the Treatment of Asymmetric Output Constraints

    Mariana Santos Matos Cavalca

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the main advantages of predictive control approaches is the capability of dealing explicitly with constraints on the manipulated and output variables. However, if the predictive control formulation does not consider model uncertainties, then the constraint satisfaction may be compromised. A solution for this inconvenience is to use robust model predictive control (RMPC strategies based on linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. However, LMI-based RMPC formulations typically consider only symmetric constraints. This paper proposes a method based on pseudoreferences to treat asymmetric output constraints in integrating SISO systems. Such technique guarantees robust constraint satisfaction and convergence of the state to the desired equilibrium point. A case study using numerical simulation indicates that satisfactory results can be achieved.

  9. BFLCRM: A BAYESIAN FUNCTIONAL LINEAR COX REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING TIME TO CONVERSION TO ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE.

    Lee, Eunjee; Zhu, Hongtu; Kong, Dehan; Wang, Yalin; Giovanello, Kelly Sullivan; Ibrahim, Joseph G

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop a Bayesian functional linear Cox regression model (BFLCRM) with both functional and scalar covariates. This new development is motivated by establishing the likelihood of conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in 346 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative 1 (ADNI-1) and the early markers of conversion. These 346 MCI patients were followed over 48 months, with 161 MCI participants progressing to AD at 48 months. The functional linear Cox regression model was used to establish that functional covariates including hippocampus surface morphology and scalar covariates including brain MRI volumes, cognitive performance (ADAS-Cog), and APOE status can accurately predict time to onset of AD. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. A simulation study is performed to evaluate the finite sample performance of BFLCRM.

  10. Robust distributed model predictive control of linear systems with structured time-varying uncertainties

    Zhang, Langwen; Xie, Wei; Wang, Jingcheng

    2017-11-01

    In this work, synthesis of robust distributed model predictive control (MPC) is presented for a class of linear systems subject to structured time-varying uncertainties. By decomposing a global system into smaller dimensional subsystems, a set of distributed MPC controllers, instead of a centralised controller, are designed. To ensure the robust stability of the closed-loop system with respect to model uncertainties, distributed state feedback laws are obtained by solving a min-max optimisation problem. The design of robust distributed MPC is then transformed into solving a minimisation optimisation problem with linear matrix inequality constraints. An iterative online algorithm with adjustable maximum iteration is proposed to coordinate the distributed controllers to achieve a global performance. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed robust distributed MPC algorithm.

  11. Linear models with R

    Faraway, Julian J

    2014-01-01

    A Hands-On Way to Learning Data AnalysisPart of the core of statistics, linear models are used to make predictions and explain the relationship between the response and the predictors. Understanding linear models is crucial to a broader competence in the practice of statistics. Linear Models with R, Second Edition explains how to use linear models in physical science, engineering, social science, and business applications. The book incorporates several improvements that reflect how the world of R has greatly expanded since the publication of the first edition.New to the Second EditionReorganiz

  12. Generating linear regression model to predict motor functions by use of laser range finder during TUG.

    Adachi, Daiki; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Hotta, Takayuki; Tashiro, Yuto; Morino, Saori; Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nozaki, Yuma; Hirata, Hinako; Yamaguchi, Moe; Yorozu, Ayanori; Takahashi, Masaki; Aoyama, Tomoki

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate which spatial and temporal parameters of the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test are associated with motor function in elderly individuals. This study included 99 community-dwelling women aged 72.9 ± 6.3 years. Step length, step width, single support time, variability of the aforementioned parameters, gait velocity, cadence, reaction time from starting signal to first step, and minimum distance between the foot and a marker placed to 3 in front of the chair were measured using our analysis system. The 10-m walk test, five times sit-to-stand (FTSTS) test, and one-leg standing (OLS) test were used to assess motor function. Stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis was used to determine which TUG test parameters were associated with each motor function test. Finally, we calculated a predictive model for each motor function test using each regression coefficient. In stepwise linear regression analysis, step length and cadence were significantly associated with the 10-m walk test, FTSTS and OLS test. Reaction time was associated with the FTSTS test, and step width was associated with the OLS test. Each predictive model showed a strong correlation with the 10-m walk test and OLS test (P motor function test. Moreover, the TUG test time regarded as the lower extremity function and mobility has strong predictive ability in each motor function test. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Orthopaedic Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Automatic Offline Formulation of Robust Model Predictive Control Based on Linear Matrix Inequalities Method

    Longge Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Two automatic robust model predictive control strategies are presented for uncertain polytopic linear plants with input and output constraints. A sequence of nested geometric proportion asymptotically stable ellipsoids and controllers is constructed offline first. Then the feedback controllers are automatically selected with the receding horizon online in the first strategy. Finally, a modified automatic offline robust MPC approach is constructed to improve the closed system's performance. The new proposed strategies not only reduce the conservatism but also decrease the online computation. Numerical examples are given to illustrate their effectiveness.

  14. Performance Prediction Modelling for Flexible Pavement on Low Volume Roads Using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

    C. Makendran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction models for low volume village roads in India are developed to evaluate the progression of different types of distress such as roughness, cracking, and potholes. Even though the Government of India is investing huge quantum of money on road construction every year, poor control over the quality of road construction and its subsequent maintenance is leading to the faster road deterioration. In this regard, it is essential that scientific maintenance procedures are to be evolved on the basis of performance of low volume flexible pavements. Considering the above, an attempt has been made in this research endeavor to develop prediction models to understand the progression of roughness, cracking, and potholes in flexible pavements exposed to least or nil routine maintenance. Distress data were collected from the low volume rural roads covering about 173 stretches spread across Tamil Nadu state in India. Based on the above collected data, distress prediction models have been developed using multiple linear regression analysis. Further, the models have been validated using independent field data. It can be concluded that the models developed in this study can serve as useful tools for the practicing engineers maintaining flexible pavements on low volume roads.

  15. Predicting oropharyngeal tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy from pretreatment computed tomography data using general linear models.

    Yock, Adam D; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M; Garden, Adam S; Kudchadker, Rajat J; Court, Laurence E

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this work was to develop and evaluate the accuracy of several predictive models of variation in tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy. Nineteen patients with oropharyngeal cancers were imaged daily with CT-on-rails for image-guided alignment per an institutional protocol. The daily volumes of 35 tumors in these 19 patients were determined and used to generate (1) a linear model in which tumor volume changed at a constant rate, (2) a general linear model that utilized the power fit relationship between the daily and initial tumor volumes, and (3) a functional general linear model that identified and exploited the primary modes of variation between time series describing the changing tumor volumes. Primary and nodal tumor volumes were examined separately. The accuracy of these models in predicting daily tumor volumes were compared with those of static and linear reference models using leave-one-out cross-validation. In predicting the daily volume of primary tumors, the general linear model and the functional general linear model were more accurate than the static reference model by 9.9% (range: -11.6%-23.8%) and 14.6% (range: -7.3%-27.5%), respectively, and were more accurate than the linear reference model by 14.2% (range: -6.8%-40.3%) and 13.1% (range: -1.5%-52.5%), respectively. In predicting the daily volume of nodal tumors, only the 14.4% (range: -11.1%-20.5%) improvement in accuracy of the functional general linear model compared to the static reference model was statistically significant. A general linear model and a functional general linear model trained on data from a small population of patients can predict the primary tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy with greater accuracy than standard reference models. These more accurate models may increase the prognostic value of information about the tumor garnered from pretreatment computed tomography images and facilitate improved treatment management.

  16. A review of model predictive control: moving from linear to nonlinear design methods

    Nandong, J.; Samyudia, Y.; Tade, M.O.

    2006-01-01

    Linear model predictive control (LMPC) has now been considered as an industrial control standard in process industry. Its extension to nonlinear cases however has not yet gained wide acceptance due to many reasons, e.g. excessively heavy computational load and effort, thus, preventing its practical implementation in real-time control. The application of nonlinear MPC (NMPC) is advantageous for processes with strong nonlinearity or when the operating points are frequently moved from one set point to another due to, for instance, changes in market demands. Much effort has been dedicated towards improving the computational efficiency of NMPC as well as its stability analysis. This paper provides a review on alternative ways of extending linear MPC to the nonlinear one. We also highlight the critical issues pertinent to the applications of NMPC and discuss possible solutions to address these issues. In addition, we outline the future research trend in the area of model predictive control by emphasizing on the potential applications of multi-scale process model within NMPC

  17. Considering linear generator copper losses on model predictive control for a point absorber wave energy converter

    Montoya Andrade, Dan-El; Villa Jaén, Antonio de la; García Santana, Agustín

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We considered the linear generator copper losses in the proposed MPC strategy. • We maximized the power transferred to the generator side power converter. • The proposed MPC increases the useful average power injected into the grid. • The stress level of the PTO system can be reduced by the proposed MPC. - Abstract: The amount of energy that a wave energy converter can extract depends strongly on the control strategy applied to the power take-off system. It is well known that, ideally, the reactive control allows for maximum energy extraction from waves. However, the reactive control is intrinsically noncausal in practice and requires some kind of causal approach to be applied. Moreover, this strategy does not consider physical constraints and this could be a problem because the system could achieve unacceptable dynamic values. These, and other control techniques have focused on the wave energy extraction problem in order to maximize the energy absorbed by the power take-off device without considering the possible losses in intermediate devices. In this sense, a reactive control that considers the linear generator copper losses has been recently proposed to increase the useful power injected into the grid. Among the control techniques that have emerged recently, the model predictive control represents a promising strategy. This approach performs an optimization process on a time prediction horizon incorporating dynamic constraints associated with the physical features of the power take-off system. This paper proposes a model predictive control technique that considers the copper losses in the control optimization process of point absorbers with direct drive linear generators. This proposal makes the most of reactive control as it considers the copper losses, and it makes the most of the model predictive control, as it considers the system constraints. This means that the useful power transferred from the linear generator to the power

  18. Robust entry guidance using linear covariance-based model predictive control

    Jianjun Luo

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available For atmospheric entry vehicles, guidance design can be accomplished by solving an optimal issue using optimal control theories. However, traditional design methods generally focus on the nominal performance and do not include considerations of the robustness in the design process. This paper proposes a linear covariance-based model predictive control method for robust entry guidance design. Firstly, linear covariance analysis is employed to directly incorporate the robustness into the guidance design. The closed-loop covariance with the feedback updated control command is initially formulated to provide the expected errors of the nominal state variables in the presence of uncertainties. Then, the closed-loop covariance is innovatively used as a component of the cost function to guarantee the robustness to reduce its sensitivity to uncertainties. After that, the models predictive control is used to solve the optimal problem, and the control commands (bank angles are calculated. Finally, a series of simulations for different missions have been completed to demonstrate the high performance in precision and the robustness with respect to initial perturbations as well as uncertainties in the entry process. The 3σ confidence region results in the presence of uncertainties which show that the robustness of the guidance has been improved, and the errors of the state variables are decreased by approximately 35%.

  19. A Riccati Based Homogeneous and Self-Dual Interior-Point Method for Linear Economic Model Predictive Control

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Frison, Gianluca; Edlund, Kristian

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we develop an efficient interior-point method (IPM) for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control of linear systems. The novelty of our algorithm is that it combines a homogeneous and self-dual model, and a specialized Riccati iteration procedure. We test...

  20. Neural network-based nonlinear model predictive control vs. linear quadratic gaussian control

    Cho, C.; Vance, R.; Mardi, N.; Qian, Z.; Prisbrey, K.

    1997-01-01

    One problem with the application of neural networks to the multivariable control of mineral and extractive processes is determining whether and how to use them. The objective of this investigation was to compare neural network control to more conventional strategies and to determine if there are any advantages in using neural network control in terms of set-point tracking, rise time, settling time, disturbance rejection and other criteria. The procedure involved developing neural network controllers using both historical plant data and simulation models. Various control patterns were tried, including both inverse and direct neural network plant models. These were compared to state space controllers that are, by nature, linear. For grinding and leaching circuits, a nonlinear neural network-based model predictive control strategy was superior to a state space-based linear quadratic gaussian controller. The investigation pointed out the importance of incorporating state space into neural networks by making them recurrent, i.e., feeding certain output state variables into input nodes in the neural network. It was concluded that neural network controllers can have better disturbance rejection, set-point tracking, rise time, settling time and lower set-point overshoot, and it was also concluded that neural network controllers can be more reliable and easy to implement in complex, multivariable plants.

  1. Predicting stem borer density in maize using RapidEye data and generalized linear models

    Abdel-Rahman, Elfatih M.; Landmann, Tobias; Kyalo, Richard; Ong'amo, George; Mwalusepo, Sizah; Sulieman, Saad; Ru, Bruno Le

    2017-05-01

    Average maize yield in eastern Africa is 2.03 t ha-1 as compared to global average of 6.06 t ha-1 due to biotic and abiotic constraints. Amongst the biotic production constraints in Africa, stem borers are the most injurious. In eastern Africa, maize yield losses due to stem borers are currently estimated between 12% and 21% of the total production. The objective of the present study was to explore the possibility of RapidEye spectral data to assess stem borer larva densities in maize fields in two study sites in Kenya. RapidEye images were acquired for the Bomet (western Kenya) test site on the 9th of December 2014 and on 27th of January 2015, and for Machakos (eastern Kenya) a RapidEye image was acquired on the 3rd of January 2015. Five RapidEye spectral bands as well as 30 spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) were utilized to predict per field maize stem borer larva densities using generalized linear models (GLMs), assuming Poisson ('Po') and negative binomial ('NB') distributions. Root mean square error (RMSE) and ratio prediction to deviation (RPD) statistics were used to assess the models performance using a leave-one-out cross-validation approach. The Zero-inflated NB ('ZINB') models outperformed the 'NB' models and stem borer larva densities could only be predicted during the mid growing season in December and early January in both study sites, respectively (RMSE = 0.69-1.06 and RPD = 8.25-19.57). Overall, all models performed similar when all the 30 SVIs (non-nested) and only the significant (nested) SVIs were used. The models developed could improve decision making regarding controlling maize stem borers within integrated pest management (IPM) interventions.

  2. Predicting heat stress index in Sasso hens using automatic linear modeling and artificial neural network

    Yakubu, A.; Oluremi, O. I. A.; Ekpo, E. I.

    2018-03-01

    There is an increasing use of robust analytical algorithms in the prediction of heat stress. The present investigation therefore, was carried out to forecast heat stress index (HSI) in Sasso laying hens. One hundred and sixty seven records on the thermo-physiological parameters of the birds were utilized. They were reared on deep litter and battery cage systems. Data were collected when the birds were 42- and 52-week of age. The independent variables fitted were housing system, age of birds, rectal temperature (RT), pulse rate (PR), and respiratory rate (RR). The response variable was HSI. Data were analyzed using automatic linear modeling (ALM) and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures. The ALM model building method involved Forward Stepwise using the F Statistic criterion. As regards ANN, multilayer perceptron (MLP) with back-propagation network was used. The ANN network was trained with 90% of the data set while 10% were dedicated to testing for model validation. RR and PR were the two parameters of utmost importance in the prediction of HSI. However, the fractional importance of RR was higher than that of PR in both ALM (0.947 versus 0.053) and ANN (0.677 versus 0.274) models. The two models also predicted HSI effectively with high degree of accuracy [r = 0.980, R 2 = 0.961, adjusted R 2 = 0.961, and RMSE = 0.05168 (ALM); r = 0.983, R 2 = 0.966; adjusted R 2 = 0.966, and RMSE = 0.04806 (ANN)]. The present information may be exploited in the development of a heat stress chart based largely on RR. This may aid detection of thermal discomfort in a poultry house under tropical and subtropical conditions.

  3. The Spike-and-Slab Lasso Generalized Linear Models for Prediction and Associated Genes Detection.

    Tang, Zaixiang; Shen, Yueping; Zhang, Xinyan; Yi, Nengjun

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale "omics" data have been increasingly used as an important resource for prognostic prediction of diseases and detection of associated genes. However, there are considerable challenges in analyzing high-dimensional molecular data, including the large number of potential molecular predictors, limited number of samples, and small effect of each predictor. We propose new Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear models, called spike-and-slab lasso GLMs, for prognostic prediction and detection of associated genes using large-scale molecular data. The proposed model employs a spike-and-slab mixture double-exponential prior for coefficients that can induce weak shrinkage on large coefficients, and strong shrinkage on irrelevant coefficients. We have developed a fast and stable algorithm to fit large-scale hierarchal GLMs by incorporating expectation-maximization (EM) steps into the fast cyclic coordinate descent algorithm. The proposed approach integrates nice features of two popular methods, i.e., penalized lasso and Bayesian spike-and-slab variable selection. The performance of the proposed method is assessed via extensive simulation studies. The results show that the proposed approach can provide not only more accurate estimates of the parameters, but also better prediction. We demonstrate the proposed procedure on two cancer data sets: a well-known breast cancer data set consisting of 295 tumors, and expression data of 4919 genes; and the ovarian cancer data set from TCGA with 362 tumors, and expression data of 5336 genes. Our analyses show that the proposed procedure can generate powerful models for predicting outcomes and detecting associated genes. The methods have been implemented in a freely available R package BhGLM (http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/). Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

  4. QSAR models for prediction study of HIV protease inhibitors using support vector machines, neural networks and multiple linear regression

    Rachid Darnag

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Support vector machines (SVM represent one of the most promising Machine Learning (ML tools that can be applied to develop a predictive quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR models using molecular descriptors. Multiple linear regression (MLR and artificial neural networks (ANNs were also utilized to construct quantitative linear and non linear models to compare with the results obtained by SVM. The prediction results are in good agreement with the experimental value of HIV activity; also, the results reveal the superiority of the SVM over MLR and ANN model. The contribution of each descriptor to the structure–activity relationships was evaluated.

  5. Non-linear Model Predictive Control for cooling strings of superconducting magnets using superfluid helium

    AUTHOR|(SzGeCERN)673023; Blanco Viñuela, Enrique

    In each of eight arcs of the 27 km circumference Large Hadron Collider (LHC), 2.5 km long strings of super-conducting magnets are cooled with superfluid Helium II at 1.9 K. The temperature stabilisation is a challenging control problem due to complex non-linear dynamics of the magnets temperature and presence of multiple operational constraints. Strong nonlinearities and variable dead-times of the dynamics originate at strongly heat-flux dependent effective heat conductivity of superfluid that varies three orders of magnitude over the range of possible operational conditions. In order to improve the temperature stabilisation, a proof of concept on-line economic output-feedback Non-linear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) is presented in this thesis. The controller is based on a novel complex first-principles distributed parameters numerical model of the temperature dynamics over a 214 m long sub-sector of the LHC that is characterized by very low computational cost of simulation needed in real-time optimizat...

  6. Hourly predictive Levenberg-Marquardt ANN and multi linear regression models for predicting of dew point temperature

    Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad

    2012-08-01

    In this study, the ability of two models of multi linear regression (MLR) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) feed-forward neural network was examined to estimate the hourly dew point temperature. Dew point temperature is the temperature at which water vapor in the air condenses into liquid. This temperature can be useful in estimating meteorological variables such as fog, rain, snow, dew, and evapotranspiration and in investigating agronomical issues as stomatal closure in plants. The availability of hourly records of climatic data (air temperature, relative humidity and pressure) which could be used to predict dew point temperature initiated the practice of modeling. Additionally, the wind vector (wind speed magnitude and direction) and conceptual input of weather condition were employed as other input variables. The three quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, i.e. the root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and absolute logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ( {| {{{Log}}({{NS}})} |} ) were employed to evaluate the performances of the developed models. The results showed that applying wind vector and weather condition as input vectors along with meteorological variables could slightly increase the ANN and MLR predictive accuracy. The results also revealed that LM-NN was superior to MLR model and the best performance was obtained by considering all potential input variables in terms of different evaluation criteria.

  7. Dual-Source Linear Energy Prediction (LINE-P) Model in the Context of WSNs.

    Ahmed, Faisal; Tamberg, Gert; Le Moullec, Yannick; Annus, Paul

    2017-07-20

    Energy harvesting technologies such as miniature power solar panels and micro wind turbines are increasingly used to help power wireless sensor network nodes. However, a major drawback of energy harvesting is its varying and intermittent characteristic, which can negatively affect the quality of service. This calls for careful design and operation of the nodes, possibly by means of, e.g., dynamic duty cycling and/or dynamic frequency and voltage scaling. In this context, various energy prediction models have been proposed in the literature; however, they are typically compute-intensive or only suitable for a single type of energy source. In this paper, we propose Linear Energy Prediction "LINE-P", a lightweight, yet relatively accurate model based on approximation and sampling theory; LINE-P is suitable for dual-source energy harvesting. Simulations and comparisons against existing similar models have been conducted with low and medium resolutions (i.e., 60 and 22 min intervals/24 h) for the solar energy source (low variations) and with high resolutions (15 min intervals/24 h) for the wind energy source. The results show that the accuracy of the solar-based and wind-based predictions is up to approximately 98% and 96%, respectively, while requiring a lower complexity and memory than the other models. For the cases where LINE-P's accuracy is lower than that of other approaches, it still has the advantage of lower computing requirements, making it more suitable for embedded implementation, e.g., in wireless sensor network coordinator nodes or gateways.

  8. Real-time detection of musical onsets with linear prediction and sinusoidal modeling

    Glover, John; Lazzarini, Victor; Timoney, Joseph

    2011-12-01

    Real-time musical note onset detection plays a vital role in many audio analysis processes, such as score following, beat detection and various sound synthesis by analysis methods. This article provides a review of some of the most commonly used techniques for real-time onset detection. We suggest ways to improve these techniques by incorporating linear prediction as well as presenting a novel algorithm for real-time onset detection using sinusoidal modelling. We provide comprehensive results for both the detection accuracy and the computational performance of all of the described techniques, evaluated using Modal, our new open source library for musical onset detection, which comes with a free database of samples with hand-labelled note onsets.

  9. Mamdani-Fuzzy Modeling Approach for Quality Prediction of Non-Linear Laser Lathing Process

    Sivaraos; Khalim, A. Z.; Salleh, M. S.; Sivakumar, D.; Kadirgama, K.

    2018-03-01

    Lathing is a process to fashioning stock materials into desired cylindrical shapes which usually performed by traditional lathe machine. But, the recent rapid advancements in engineering materials and precision demand gives a great challenge to the traditional method. The main drawback of conventional lathe is its mechanical contact which brings to the undesirable tool wear, heat affected zone, finishing, and dimensional accuracy especially taper quality in machining of stock with high length to diameter ratio. Therefore, a novel approach has been devised to investigate in transforming a 2D flatbed CO2 laser cutting machine into 3D laser lathing capability as an alternative solution. Three significant design parameters were selected for this experiment, namely cutting speed, spinning speed, and depth of cut. Total of 24 experiments were performed with eight (8) sequential runs where they were then replicated three (3) times. The experimental results were then used to establish Mamdani - Fuzzy predictive model where it yields the accuracy of more than 95%. Thus, the proposed Mamdani - Fuzzy modelling approach is found very much suitable and practical for quality prediction of non-linear laser lathing process for cylindrical stocks of 10mm diameter.

  10. Improvement of Bragg peak shift estimation using dimensionality reduction techniques and predictive linear modeling

    Xing, Yafei; Macq, Benoit

    2017-11-01

    With the emergence of clinical prototypes and first patient acquisitions for proton therapy, the research on prompt gamma imaging is aiming at making most use of the prompt gamma data for in vivo estimation of any shift from expected Bragg peak (BP). The simple problem of matching the measured prompt gamma profile of each pencil beam with a reference simulation from the treatment plan is actually made complex by uncertainties which can translate into distortions during treatment. We will illustrate this challenge and demonstrate the robustness of a predictive linear model we proposed for BP shift estimation based on principal component analysis (PCA) method. It considered the first clinical knife-edge slit camera design in use with anthropomorphic phantom CT data. Particularly, 4115 error scenarios were simulated for the learning model. PCA was applied to the training input randomly chosen from 500 scenarios for eliminating data collinearities. A total variance of 99.95% was used for representing the testing input from 3615 scenarios. This model improved the BP shift estimation by an average of 63+/-19% in a range between -2.5% and 86%, comparing to our previous profile shift (PS) method. The robustness of our method was demonstrated by a comparative study conducted by applying 1000 times Poisson noise to each profile. 67% cases obtained by the learning model had lower prediction errors than those obtained by PS method. The estimation accuracy ranged between 0.31 +/- 0.22 mm and 1.84 +/- 8.98 mm for the learning model, while for PS method it ranged between 0.3 +/- 0.25 mm and 20.71 +/- 8.38 mm.

  11. A turbulent mixing Reynolds stress model fitted to match linear interaction analysis predictions

    Griffond, J; Soulard, O; Souffland, D

    2010-01-01

    To predict the evolution of turbulent mixing zones developing in shock tube experiments with different gases, a turbulence model must be able to reliably evaluate the production due to the shock-turbulence interaction. In the limit of homogeneous weak turbulence, 'linear interaction analysis' (LIA) can be applied. This theory relies on Kovasznay's decomposition and allows the computation of waves transmitted or produced at the shock front. With assumptions about the composition of the upstream turbulent mixture, one can connect the second-order moments downstream from the shock front to those upstream through a transfer matrix, depending on shock strength. The purpose of this work is to provide a turbulence model that matches LIA results for the shock-turbulent mixture interaction. Reynolds stress models (RSMs) with additional equations for the density-velocity correlation and the density variance are considered here. The turbulent states upstream and downstream from the shock front calculated with these models can also be related through a transfer matrix, provided that the numerical implementation is based on a pseudo-pressure formulation. Then, the RSM should be modified in such a way that its transfer matrix matches the LIA one. Using the pseudo-pressure to introduce ad hoc production terms, we are able to obtain a close agreement between LIA and RSM matrices for any shock strength and thus improve the capabilities of the RSM.

  12. The Use of Linear Programming for Prediction.

    Schnittjer, Carl J.

    The purpose of the study was to develop a linear programming model to be used for prediction, test the accuracy of the predictions, and compare the accuracy with that produced by curvilinear multiple regression analysis. (Author)

  13. Predicting oropharyngeal tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy from pretreatment computed tomography data using general linear models

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this work was to develop and evaluate the accuracy of several predictive models of variation in tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Nineteen patients with oropharyngeal cancers were imaged daily with CT-on-rails for image-guided alignment per an institutional protocol. The daily volumes of 35 tumors in these 19 patients were determined and used to generate (1) a linear model in which tumor volume changed at a constant rate, (2) a general linear model that utilized the power fit relationship between the daily and initial tumor volumes, and (3) a functional general linear model that identified and exploited the primary modes of variation between time series describing the changing tumor volumes. Primary and nodal tumor volumes were examined separately. The accuracy of these models in predicting daily tumor volumes were compared with those of static and linear reference models using leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: In predicting the daily volume of primary tumors, the general linear model and the functional general linear model were more accurate than the static reference model by 9.9% (range: −11.6%–23.8%) and 14.6% (range: −7.3%–27.5%), respectively, and were more accurate than the linear reference model by 14.2% (range: −6.8%–40.3%) and 13.1% (range: −1.5%–52.5%), respectively. In predicting the daily volume of nodal tumors, only the 14.4% (range: −11.1%–20.5%) improvement in accuracy of the functional general linear model compared to the static reference model was statistically significant. Conclusions: A general linear model and a functional general linear model trained on data from a small population of patients can predict the primary tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy with greater accuracy than standard reference models. These more accurate models may increase the prognostic value of information about the tumor garnered from pretreatment computed tomography

  14. Linear reaction norm models for genetic merit prediction of Angus cattle under genotype by environment interaction.

    Cardoso, F F; Tempelman, R J

    2012-07-01

    The objectives of this work were to assess alternative linear reaction norm (RN) models for genetic evaluation of Angus cattle in Brazil. That is, we investigated the interaction between genotypes and continuous descriptors of the environmental variation to examine evidence of genotype by environment interaction (G×E) in post-weaning BW gain (PWG) and to compare the environmental sensitivity of national and imported Angus sires. Data were collected by the Brazilian Angus Improvement Program from 1974 to 2005 and consisted of 63,098 records and a pedigree file with 95,896 animals. Six models were implemented using Bayesian inference and compared using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC). The simplest model was M(1), a traditional animal model, which showed the largest DIC and hence the poorest fit when compared with the 4 alternative RN specifications accounting for G×E. In M(2), a 2-step procedure was implemented using the contemporary group posterior means of M(1) as the environmental gradient, ranging from -92.6 to +265.5 kg. Moreover, the benefits of jointly estimating all parameters in a 1-step approach were demonstrated by M(3). Additionally, we extended M(3) to allow for residual heteroskedasticity using an exponential function (M(4)) and the best fitting (smallest DIC) environmental classification model (M(5)) specification. Finally, M(6) added just heteroskedastic residual variance to M(1). Heritabilities were less at harsh environments and increased with the improvement of production conditions for all RN models. Rank correlations among genetic merit predictions obtained by M(1) and by the best fitting RN models M(3) (homoskedastic) and M(5) (heteroskedastic) at different environmental levels ranged from 0.79 and 0.81, suggesting biological importance of G×E in Brazilian Angus PWG. These results suggest that selection progress could be optimized by adopting environment-specific genetic merit predictions. The PWG environmental sensitivity of

  15. A Homogeneous and Self-Dual Interior-Point Linear Programming Algorithm for Economic Model Predictive Control

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Frison, Gianluca; Skajaa, Anders

    2015-01-01

    We develop an efficient homogeneous and self-dual interior-point method (IPM) for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control of constrained linear systems with linear objective functions. The algorithm is based on a Riccati iteration procedure, which is adapted to the linear...... system of equations solved in homogeneous and self-dual IPMs. Fast convergence is further achieved using a warm-start strategy. We implement the algorithm in MATLAB and C. Its performance is tested using a conceptual power management case study. Closed loop simulations show that 1) the proposed algorithm...

  16. Predicting Longitudinal Change in Language Production and Comprehension in Individuals with Down Syndrome: Hierarchical Linear Modeling.

    Chapman, Robin S.; Hesketh, Linda J.; Kistler, Doris J.

    2002-01-01

    Longitudinal change in syntax comprehension and production skill, measured over six years, was modeled in 31 individuals (ages 5-20) with Down syndrome. The best fitting Hierarchical Linear Modeling model of comprehension uses age and visual and auditory short-term memory as predictors of initial status, and age for growth trajectory. (Contains…

  17. Comparison of the Predictive Performance and Interpretability of Random Forest and Linear Models on Benchmark Data Sets.

    Marchese Robinson, Richard L; Palczewska, Anna; Palczewski, Jan; Kidley, Nathan

    2017-08-28

    The ability to interpret the predictions made by quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) offers a number of advantages. While QSARs built using nonlinear modeling approaches, such as the popular Random Forest algorithm, might sometimes be more predictive than those built using linear modeling approaches, their predictions have been perceived as difficult to interpret. However, a growing number of approaches have been proposed for interpreting nonlinear QSAR models in general and Random Forest in particular. In the current work, we compare the performance of Random Forest to those of two widely used linear modeling approaches: linear Support Vector Machines (SVMs) (or Support Vector Regression (SVR)) and partial least-squares (PLS). We compare their performance in terms of their predictivity as well as the chemical interpretability of the predictions using novel scoring schemes for assessing heat map images of substructural contributions. We critically assess different approaches for interpreting Random Forest models as well as for obtaining predictions from the forest. We assess the models on a large number of widely employed public-domain benchmark data sets corresponding to regression and binary classification problems of relevance to hit identification and toxicology. We conclude that Random Forest typically yields comparable or possibly better predictive performance than the linear modeling approaches and that its predictions may also be interpreted in a chemically and biologically meaningful way. In contrast to earlier work looking at interpretation of nonlinear QSAR models, we directly compare two methodologically distinct approaches for interpreting Random Forest models. The approaches for interpreting Random Forest assessed in our article were implemented using open-source programs that we have made available to the community. These programs are the rfFC package ( https://r-forge.r-project.org/R/?group_id=1725 ) for the R statistical

  18. Wheel slip control with torque blending using linear and nonlinear model predictive control

    Basrah, M. Sofian; Siampis, Efstathios; Velenis, Efstathios; Cao, Dongpu; Longo, Stefano

    2017-11-01

    Modern hybrid electric vehicles employ electric braking to recuperate energy during deceleration. However, currently anti-lock braking system (ABS) functionality is delivered solely by friction brakes. Hence regenerative braking is typically deactivated at a low deceleration threshold in case high slip develops at the wheels and ABS activation is required. If blending of friction and electric braking can be achieved during ABS events, there would be no need to impose conservative thresholds for deactivation of regenerative braking and the recuperation capacity of the vehicle would increase significantly. In addition, electric actuators are typically significantly faster responding and would deliver better control of wheel slip than friction brakes. In this work we present a control strategy for ABS on a fully electric vehicle with each wheel independently driven by an electric machine and friction brake independently applied at each wheel. In particular we develop linear and nonlinear model predictive control strategies for optimal performance and enforcement of critical control and state constraints. The capability for real-time implementation of these controllers is assessed and their performance is validated in high fidelity simulation.

  19. The Theory of Linear Prediction

    Vaidyanathan, PP

    2007-01-01

    Linear prediction theory has had a profound impact in the field of digital signal processing. Although the theory dates back to the early 1940s, its influence can still be seen in applications today. The theory is based on very elegant mathematics and leads to many beautiful insights into statistical signal processing. Although prediction is only a part of the more general topics of linear estimation, filtering, and smoothing, this book focuses on linear prediction. This has enabled detailed discussion of a number of issues that are normally not found in texts. For example, the theory of vecto

  20. Comparing artificial neural networks, general linear models and support vector machines in building predictive models for small interfering RNAs.

    Kyle A McQuisten

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Exogenous short interfering RNAs (siRNAs induce a gene knockdown effect in cells by interacting with naturally occurring RNA processing machinery. However not all siRNAs induce this effect equally. Several heterogeneous kinds of machine learning techniques and feature sets have been applied to modeling siRNAs and their abilities to induce knockdown. There is some growing agreement to which techniques produce maximally predictive models and yet there is little consensus for methods to compare among predictive models. Also, there are few comparative studies that address what the effect of choosing learning technique, feature set or cross validation approach has on finding and discriminating among predictive models.Three learning techniques were used to develop predictive models for effective siRNA sequences including Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, General Linear Models (GLMs and Support Vector Machines (SVMs. Five feature mapping methods were also used to generate models of siRNA activities. The 2 factors of learning technique and feature mapping were evaluated by complete 3x5 factorial ANOVA. Overall, both learning techniques and feature mapping contributed significantly to the observed variance in predictive models, but to differing degrees for precision and accuracy as well as across different kinds and levels of model cross-validation.The methods presented here provide a robust statistical framework to compare among models developed under distinct learning techniques and feature sets for siRNAs. Further comparisons among current or future modeling approaches should apply these or other suitable statistically equivalent methods to critically evaluate the performance of proposed models. ANN and GLM techniques tend to be more sensitive to the inclusion of noisy features, but the SVM technique is more robust under large numbers of features for measures of model precision and accuracy. Features found to result in maximally predictive models are

  1. INTRODUCTION TO A COMBINED MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION AND ARMA MODELING APPROACH FOR BEACH BACTERIA PREDICTION

    Due to the complexity of the processes contributing to beach bacteria concentrations, many researchers rely on statistical modeling, among which multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling is most widely used. Despite its ease of use and interpretation, there may be time dependence...

  2. Linking linear programming and spatial simulation models to predict landscape effects of forest management alternatives

    Eric J. Gustafson; L. Jay Roberts; Larry A. Leefers

    2006-01-01

    Forest management planners require analytical tools to assess the effects of alternative strategies on the sometimes disparate benefits from forests such as timber production and wildlife habitat. We assessed the spatial patterns of alternative management strategies by linking two models that were developed for different purposes. We used a linear programming model (...

  3. Multi input single output model predictive control of non-linear bio-polymerization process

    Arumugasamy, Senthil Kumar; Ahmad, Z. [School of Chemical Engineering, Univerisiti Sains Malaysia, Engineering Campus, Seri Ampangan,14300 Nibong Tebal, Seberang Perai Selatan, Pulau Pinang (Malaysia)

    2015-05-15

    This paper focuses on Multi Input Single Output (MISO) Model Predictive Control of bio-polymerization process in which mechanistic model is developed and linked with the feedforward neural network model to obtain a hybrid model (Mechanistic-FANN) of lipase-catalyzed ring-opening polymerization of ε-caprolactone (ε-CL) for Poly (ε-caprolactone) production. In this research, state space model was used, in which the input to the model were the reactor temperatures and reactor impeller speeds and the output were the molecular weight of polymer (M{sub n}) and polymer polydispersity index. State space model for MISO created using System identification tool box of Matlab™. This state space model is used in MISO MPC. Model predictive control (MPC) has been applied to predict the molecular weight of the biopolymer and consequently control the molecular weight of biopolymer. The result shows that MPC is able to track reference trajectory and give optimum movement of manipulated variable.

  4. Application of linear and non-linear low-Re k-ε models in two-dimensional predictions of convective heat transfer in passages with sudden contractions

    Raisee, M.; Hejazi, S.H.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents comparisons between heat transfer predictions and measurements for developing turbulent flow through straight rectangular channels with sudden contractions at the mid-channel section. The present numerical results were obtained using a two-dimensional finite-volume code which solves the governing equations in a vertical plane located at the lateral mid-point of the channel. The pressure field is obtained with the well-known SIMPLE algorithm. The hybrid scheme was employed for the discretization of convection in all transport equations. For modeling of the turbulence, a zonal low-Reynolds number k-ε model and the linear and non-linear low-Reynolds number k-ε models with the 'Yap' and 'NYP' length-scale correction terms have been employed. The main objective of present study is to examine the ability of the above turbulence models in the prediction of convective heat transfer in channels with sudden contraction at a mid-channel section. The results of this study show that a sudden contraction creates a relatively small recirculation bubble immediately downstream of the channel contraction. This separation bubble influences the distribution of local heat transfer coefficient and increases the heat transfer levels by a factor of three. Computational results indicate that all the turbulence models employed produce similar flow fields. The zonal k-ε model produces the wrong Nusselt number distribution by underpredicting heat transfer levels in the recirculation bubble and overpredicting them in the developing region. The linear low-Re k-ε model, on the other hand, returns the correct Nusselt number distribution in the recirculation region, although it somewhat overpredicts heat transfer levels in the developing region downstream of the separation bubble. The replacement of the 'Yap' term with the 'NYP' term in the linear low-Re k-ε model results in a more accurate local Nusselt number distribution. Moreover, the application of the non-linear k

  5. A linear regression model for predicting PNW estuarine temperatures in a changing climate

    Pacific Northwest coastal regions, estuaries, and associated ecosystems are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change, especially to changes in nearshore water temperature. While predictive climate models simulate future air temperatures, no such projections exist for...

  6. Improving sub-pixel imperviousness change prediction by ensembling heterogeneous non-linear regression models

    Drzewiecki Wojciech

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work nine non-linear regression models were compared for sub-pixel impervious surface area mapping from Landsat images. The comparison was done in three study areas both for accuracy of imperviousness coverage evaluation in individual points in time and accuracy of imperviousness change assessment. The performance of individual machine learning algorithms (Cubist, Random Forest, stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees, k-nearest neighbors regression, random k-nearest neighbors regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, averaged neural networks, and support vector machines with polynomial and radial kernels was also compared with the performance of heterogeneous model ensembles constructed from the best models trained using particular techniques.

  7. linear-quadratic-linear model

    Tanwiwat Jaikuna

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To develop an in-house software program that is able to calculate and generate the biological dose distribution and biological dose volume histogram by physical dose conversion using the linear-quadratic-linear (LQL model. Material and methods : The Isobio software was developed using MATLAB version 2014b to calculate and generate the biological dose distribution and biological dose volume histograms. The physical dose from each voxel in treatment planning was extracted through Computational Environment for Radiotherapy Research (CERR, and the accuracy was verified by the differentiation between the dose volume histogram from CERR and the treatment planning system. An equivalent dose in 2 Gy fraction (EQD2 was calculated using biological effective dose (BED based on the LQL model. The software calculation and the manual calculation were compared for EQD2 verification with pair t-test statistical analysis using IBM SPSS Statistics version 22 (64-bit. Results: Two and three-dimensional biological dose distribution and biological dose volume histogram were displayed correctly by the Isobio software. Different physical doses were found between CERR and treatment planning system (TPS in Oncentra, with 3.33% in high-risk clinical target volume (HR-CTV determined by D90%, 0.56% in the bladder, 1.74% in the rectum when determined by D2cc, and less than 1% in Pinnacle. The difference in the EQD2 between the software calculation and the manual calculation was not significantly different with 0.00% at p-values 0.820, 0.095, and 0.593 for external beam radiation therapy (EBRT and 0.240, 0.320, and 0.849 for brachytherapy (BT in HR-CTV, bladder, and rectum, respectively. Conclusions : The Isobio software is a feasible tool to generate the biological dose distribution and biological dose volume histogram for treatment plan evaluation in both EBRT and BT.

  8. Three dimensional force prediction in a model linear brushless dc motor

    Moghani, J.S.; Eastham, J.F.; Akmese, R.; Hill-Cottingham, R.J. (Univ. of Bath (United Kingdom). School of Electronic and Electric Engineering)

    1994-11-01

    Practical results are presented for the three axes forces produced on the primary of a linear brushless dc machine which is supplied from a three-phase delta-modulated inverter. Conditions of both lateral alignment and lateral displacement are considered. Finite element analysis using both two and three dimensional modeling is compared with the practical results. It is shown that a modified two dimensional model is adequate, where it can be used, in the aligned position and that the full three dimensional method gives good results when the machine is axially misaligned.

  9. Comparison of Damage Models for Predicting the Non-Linear Response of Laminates Under Matrix Dominated Loading Conditions

    Schuecker, Clara; Davila, Carlos G.; Rose, Cheryl A.

    2010-01-01

    Five models for matrix damage in fiber reinforced laminates are evaluated for matrix-dominated loading conditions under plane stress and are compared both qualitatively and quantitatively. The emphasis of this study is on a comparison of the response of embedded plies subjected to a homogeneous stress state. Three of the models are specifically designed for modeling the non-linear response due to distributed matrix cracking under homogeneous loading, and also account for non-linear (shear) behavior prior to the onset of cracking. The remaining two models are localized damage models intended for predicting local failure at stress concentrations. The modeling approaches of distributed vs. localized cracking as well as the different formulations of damage initiation and damage progression are compared and discussed.

  10. Adaptive LINE-P: An Adaptive Linear Energy Prediction Model for Wireless Sensor Network Nodes.

    Ahmed, Faisal; Tamberg, Gert; Le Moullec, Yannick; Annus, Paul

    2018-04-05

    In the context of wireless sensor networks, energy prediction models are increasingly useful tools that can facilitate the power management of the wireless sensor network (WSN) nodes. However, most of the existing models suffer from the so-called fixed weighting parameter, which limits their applicability when it comes to, e.g., solar energy harvesters with varying characteristics. Thus, in this article we propose the Adaptive LINE-P (all cases) model that calculates adaptive weighting parameters based on the stored energy profiles. Furthermore, we also present a profile compression method to reduce the memory requirements. To determine the performance of our proposed model, we have used real data for the solar and wind energy profiles. The simulation results show that our model achieves 90-94% accuracy and that the compressed method reduces memory overheads by 50% as compared to state-of-the-art models.

  11. Improved prediction of genetic predisposition to psychiatric disorders using genomic feature best linear unbiased prediction models

    Rohde, Palle Duun; Demontis, Ditte; Børglum, Anders

    is enriched for causal variants. Here we apply the GFBLUP model to a small schizophrenia case-control study to test the promise of this model on psychiatric disorders, and hypothesize that the performance will be increased when applying the model to a larger ADHD case-control study if the genomic feature...... contains the causal variants. Materials and Methods: The schizophrenia study consisted of 882 controls and 888 schizophrenia cases genotyped for 520,000 SNPs. The ADHD study contained 25,954 controls and 16,663 ADHD cases with 8,4 million imputed genotypes. Results: The predictive ability for schizophrenia.......6% for the null model). Conclusion: The improvement in predictive ability for schizophrenia was marginal, however, greater improvement is expected for the larger ADHD data....

  12. 10 km running performance predicted by a multiple linear regression model with allometrically adjusted variables.

    Abad, Cesar C C; Barros, Ronaldo V; Bertuzzi, Romulo; Gagliardi, João F L; Lima-Silva, Adriano E; Lambert, Mike I; Pires, Flavio O

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to verify the power of VO 2max , peak treadmill running velocity (PTV), and running economy (RE), unadjusted or allometrically adjusted, in predicting 10 km running performance. Eighteen male endurance runners performed: 1) an incremental test to exhaustion to determine VO 2max and PTV; 2) a constant submaximal run at 12 km·h -1 on an outdoor track for RE determination; and 3) a 10 km running race. Unadjusted (VO 2max , PTV and RE) and adjusted variables (VO 2max 0.72 , PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 ) were investigated through independent multiple regression models to predict 10 km running race time. There were no significant correlations between 10 km running time and either the adjusted or unadjusted VO 2max . Significant correlations (p 0.84 and power > 0.88. The allometrically adjusted predictive model was composed of PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 and explained 83% of the variance in 10 km running time with a standard error of the estimate (SEE) of 1.5 min. The unadjusted model composed of a single PVT accounted for 72% of the variance in 10 km running time (SEE of 1.9 min). Both regression models provided powerful estimates of 10 km running time; however, the unadjusted PTV may provide an uncomplicated estimation.

  13. Prediction of high airway pressure using a non-linear autoregressive model of pulmonary mechanics.

    Langdon, Ruby; Docherty, Paul D; Schranz, Christoph; Chase, J Geoffrey

    2017-11-02

    For mechanically ventilated patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), suboptimal PEEP levels can cause ventilator induced lung injury (VILI). In particular, high PEEP and high peak inspiratory pressures (PIP) can cause over distension of alveoli that is associated with VILI. However, PEEP must also be sufficient to maintain recruitment in ARDS lungs. A lung model that accurately and precisely predicts the outcome of an increase in PEEP may allow dangerous high PIP to be avoided, and reduce the incidence of VILI. Sixteen pressure-flow data sets were collected from nine mechanically ventilated ARDs patients that underwent one or more recruitment manoeuvres. A nonlinear autoregressive (NARX) model was identified on one or more adjacent PEEP steps, and extrapolated to predict PIP at 2, 4, and 6 cmH 2 O PEEP horizons. The analysis considered whether the predicted and measured PIP exceeded a threshold of 40 cmH 2 O. A direct comparison of the method was made using the first order model of pulmonary mechanics (FOM(I)). Additionally, a further, more clinically appropriate method for the FOM was tested, in which the FOM was trained on a single PEEP prior to prediction (FOM(II)). The NARX model exhibited very high sensitivity (> 0.96) in all cases, and a high specificity (> 0.88). While both FOM methods had a high specificity (> 0.96), the sensitivity was much lower, with a mean of 0.68 for FOM(I), and 0.82 for FOM(II). Clinically, false negatives are more harmful than false positives, as a high PIP may result in distension and VILI. Thus, the NARX model may be more effective than the FOM in allowing clinicians to reduce the risk of applying a PEEP that results in dangerously high airway pressures.

  14. Explorative methods in linear models

    Høskuldsson, Agnar

    2004-01-01

    The author has developed the H-method of mathematical modeling that builds up the model by parts, where each part is optimized with respect to prediction. Besides providing with better predictions than traditional methods, these methods provide with graphic procedures for analyzing different feat...... features in data. These graphic methods extend the well-known methods and results of Principal Component Analysis to any linear model. Here the graphic procedures are applied to linear regression and Ridge Regression....

  15. Improved prediction of residue flexibility by embedding optimized amino acid grouping into RSA-based linear models.

    Zhang, Hua; Kurgan, Lukasz

    2014-12-01

    Knowledge of protein flexibility is vital for deciphering the corresponding functional mechanisms. This knowledge would help, for instance, in improving computational drug design and refinement in homology-based modeling. We propose a new predictor of the residue flexibility, which is expressed by B-factors, from protein chains that use local (in the chain) predicted (or native) relative solvent accessibility (RSA) and custom-derived amino acid (AA) alphabets. Our predictor is implemented as a two-stage linear regression model that uses RSA-based space in a local sequence window in the first stage and a reduced AA pair-based space in the second stage as the inputs. This method is easy to comprehend explicit linear form in both stages. Particle swarm optimization was used to find an optimal reduced AA alphabet to simplify the input space and improve the prediction performance. The average correlation coefficients between the native and predicted B-factors measured on a large benchmark dataset are improved from 0.65 to 0.67 when using the native RSA values and from 0.55 to 0.57 when using the predicted RSA values. Blind tests that were performed on two independent datasets show consistent improvements in the average correlation coefficients by a modest value of 0.02 for both native and predicted RSA-based predictions.

  16. Structure-Dependent Water-Induced Linear Reduction Model for Predicting Gas Diffusivity and Tortuosity in Repacked and Intact Soil

    Møldrup, Per; Chamindu, T. K. K. Deepagoda; Hamamoto, S.

    2013-01-01

    The soil-gas diffusion is a primary driver of transport, reactions, emissions, and uptake of vadose zone gases, including oxygen, greenhouse gases, fumigants, and spilled volatile organics. The soil-gas diffusion coefficient, Dp, depends not only on soil moisture content, texture, and compaction...... but also on the local-scale variability of these. Different predictive models have been developed to estimate Dp in intact and repacked soil, but clear guidelines for model choice at a given soil state are lacking. In this study, the water-induced linear reduction (WLR) model for repacked soil is made...... air) in repacked soils containing between 0 and 54% clay. With Cm = 2.1, the SWLR model on average gave excellent predictions for 290 intact soils, performing well across soil depths, textures, and compactions (dry bulk densities). The SWLR model generally outperformed similar, simple Dp/Do models...

  17. A novel simple QSAR model for the prediction of anti-HIV activity using multiple linear regression analysis.

    Afantitis, Antreas; Melagraki, Georgia; Sarimveis, Haralambos; Koutentis, Panayiotis A; Markopoulos, John; Igglessi-Markopoulou, Olga

    2006-08-01

    A quantitative-structure activity relationship was obtained by applying Multiple Linear Regression Analysis to a series of 80 1-[2-hydroxyethoxy-methyl]-6-(phenylthio) thymine (HEPT) derivatives with significant anti-HIV activity. For the selection of the best among 37 different descriptors, the Elimination Selection Stepwise Regression Method (ES-SWR) was utilized. The resulting QSAR model (R (2) (CV) = 0.8160; S (PRESS) = 0.5680) proved to be very accurate both in training and predictive stages.

  18. Straight line fitting and predictions: On a marginal likelihood approach to linear regression and errors-in-variables models

    Christiansen, Bo

    2015-04-01

    Linear regression methods are without doubt the most used approaches to describe and predict data in the physical sciences. They are often good first order approximations and they are in general easier to apply and interpret than more advanced methods. However, even the properties of univariate regression can lead to debate over the appropriateness of various models as witnessed by the recent discussion about climate reconstruction methods. Before linear regression is applied important choices have to be made regarding the origins of the noise terms and regarding which of the two variables under consideration that should be treated as the independent variable. These decisions are often not easy to make but they may have a considerable impact on the results. We seek to give a unified probabilistic - Bayesian with flat priors - treatment of univariate linear regression and prediction by taking, as starting point, the general errors-in-variables model (Christiansen, J. Clim., 27, 2014-2031, 2014). Other versions of linear regression can be obtained as limits of this model. We derive the likelihood of the model parameters and predictands of the general errors-in-variables model by marginalizing over the nuisance parameters. The resulting likelihood is relatively simple and easy to analyze and calculate. The well known unidentifiability of the errors-in-variables model is manifested as the absence of a well-defined maximum in the likelihood. However, this does not mean that probabilistic inference can not be made; the marginal likelihoods of model parameters and the predictands have, in general, well-defined maxima. We also include a probabilistic version of classical calibration and show how it is related to the errors-in-variables model. The results are illustrated by an example from the coupling between the lower stratosphere and the troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere winter.

  19. Metode Linear Predictive Coding (LPC Pada klasifikasi Hidden Markov Model (HMM Untuk Kata Arabic pada penutur Indonesia

    Ririn Kusumawati

    2016-05-01

    In the classification, using Hidden Markov Model, voice signal is analyzed and searched the maximum possible value that can be recognized. The modeling results obtained parameters are used to compare with the sound of Arabic speakers. From the test results' Classification, Hidden Markov Models with Linear Predictive Coding extraction average accuracy of 78.6% for test data sampling frequency of 8,000 Hz, 80.2% for test data sampling frequency of 22050 Hz, 79% for frequencies sampling test data at 44100 Hz.

  20. Real-time prediction of extreme ambient carbon monoxide concentrations due to vehicular exhaust emissions using univariate linear stochastic models

    Sharma, P.; Khare, M.

    2000-01-01

    Historical data of the time-series of carbon monoxide (CO) concentration was analysed using Box-Jenkins modelling approach. Univariate Linear Stochastic Models (ULSMs) were developed to examine the degree of prediction possible for situations where only a limited data set, restricted only to the past record of pollutant data are available. The developed models can be used to provide short-term, real-time forecast of extreme CO concentrations for an Air Quality Control Region (AQCR), comprising a major traffic intersection in a Central Business District of Delhi City, India. (author)

  1. Predicting the multi-domain progression of Parkinson's disease: a Bayesian multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect model.

    Wang, Ming; Li, Zheng; Lee, Eun Young; Lewis, Mechelle M; Zhang, Lijun; Sterling, Nicholas W; Wagner, Daymond; Eslinger, Paul; Du, Guangwei; Huang, Xuemei

    2017-09-25

    It is challenging for current statistical models to predict clinical progression of Parkinson's disease (PD) because of the involvement of multi-domains and longitudinal data. Past univariate longitudinal or multivariate analyses from cross-sectional trials have limited power to predict individual outcomes or a single moment. The multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect model (GLMM) under the Bayesian framework was proposed to study multi-domain longitudinal outcomes obtained at baseline, 18-, and 36-month. The outcomes included motor, non-motor, and postural instability scores from the MDS-UPDRS, and demographic and standardized clinical data were utilized as covariates. The dynamic prediction was performed for both internal and external subjects using the samples from the posterior distributions of the parameter estimates and random effects, and also the predictive accuracy was evaluated based on the root of mean square error (RMSE), absolute bias (AB) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. First, our prediction model identified clinical data that were differentially associated with motor, non-motor, and postural stability scores. Second, the predictive accuracy of our model for the training data was assessed, and improved prediction was gained in particularly for non-motor (RMSE and AB: 2.89 and 2.20) compared to univariate analysis (RMSE and AB: 3.04 and 2.35). Third, the individual-level predictions of longitudinal trajectories for the testing data were performed, with ~80% observed values falling within the 95% credible intervals. Multivariate general mixed models hold promise to predict clinical progression of individual outcomes in PD. The data was obtained from Dr. Xuemei Huang's NIH grant R01 NS060722 , part of NINDS PD Biomarker Program (PDBP). All data was entered within 24 h of collection to the Data Management Repository (DMR), which is publically available ( https://pdbp.ninds.nih.gov/data-management ).

  2. A Family of High-Performance Solvers for Linear Model Predictive Control

    Frison, Gianluca; Sokoler, Leo Emil; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2014-01-01

    In Model Predictive Control (MPC), an optimization problem has to be solved at each sampling time, and this has traditionally limited the use of MPC to systems with slow dynamic. In this paper, we propose an e_cient solution strategy for the unconstrained sub-problems that give the search......-direction in Interior-Point (IP) methods for MPC, and that usually are the computational bottle-neck. This strategy combines a Riccati-like solver with the use of high-performance computing techniques: in particular, in this paper we explore the performance boost given by the use of single precision computation...

  3. Plateletpheresis efficiency and mathematical correction of software-derived platelet yield prediction: A linear regression and ROC modeling approach.

    Jaime-Pérez, José Carlos; Jiménez-Castillo, Raúl Alberto; Vázquez-Hernández, Karina Elizabeth; Salazar-Riojas, Rosario; Méndez-Ramírez, Nereida; Gómez-Almaguer, David

    2017-10-01

    Advances in automated cell separators have improved the efficiency of plateletpheresis and the possibility of obtaining double products (DP). We assessed cell processor accuracy of predicted platelet (PLT) yields with the goal of a better prediction of DP collections. This retrospective proof-of-concept study included 302 plateletpheresis procedures performed on a Trima Accel v6.0 at the apheresis unit of a hematology department. Donor variables, software predicted yield and actual PLT yield were statistically evaluated. Software prediction was optimized by linear regression analysis and its optimal cut-off to obtain a DP assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) modeling. Three hundred and two plateletpheresis procedures were performed; in 271 (89.7%) occasions, donors were men and in 31 (10.3%) women. Pre-donation PLT count had the best direct correlation with actual PLT yield (r = 0.486. P Simple correction derived from linear regression analysis accurately corrected this underestimation and ROC analysis identified a precise cut-off to reliably predict a DP. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Development of Bundle Position-Wise Linear Model for Predicting the Pressure Tube Diametral Creep in CANDU Reactors

    Lee, Jae Yong; Na, Man Gyun

    2011-01-01

    Diametral creep of the pressure tube (PT) is one of the principal aging mechanisms governing the heat transfer and hydraulic degradation of a heat transport system. PT diametral creep leads to diametral expansion that affects the thermal hydraulic characteristics of the coolant channels and the critical heat flux. Therefore, it is essential to predict the PT diametral creep in CANDU reactors, which is caused mainly by fast neutron irradiation, reactor coolant temperature and so forth. The currently used PT diametral creep prediction model considers the complex interactions between the effects of temperature and fast neutron flux on the deformation of PT zirconium alloys. The model assumes that long-term steady-state deformation consists of separable, additive components from thermal creep, irradiation creep and irradiation growth. This is a mechanistic model based on measured data. However, this model has high prediction uncertainty. Recently, a statistical error modeling method was developed using plant inspection data from the Bruce B CANDU reactor. The aim of this study was to develop a bundle position-wise linear model (BPLM) to predict PT diametral creep employing previously measured PT diameters and HTS operating conditions. There are twelve bundles in a fuel channel and for each bundle, a linear model was developed by using the dependent variables, such as the fast neutron fluxes and the bundle temperatures. The training data set was selected using the subtractive clustering method. The data of 39 channels that consist of 80 percent of a total of 49 measured channels from Units 2, 3 and 4 were used to develop the BPLM models. The remaining 10 channels' data were used to test the developed BPLM models. The BPLM was optimized by the maximum likelihood estimation method. The developed BPLM to predict PT diametral creep was verified using the operating data gathered from the Units 2,3 and 4 in Korea. Two error components for the BPLM, which are the epistemic

  5. Efficient Implementation of Solvers for Linear Model Predictive Control on Embedded Devices

    Frison, Gianluca; Kwame Minde Kufoalor, D.; Imsland, Lars

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel approach for the efficient implementation of solvers for linear MPC on embedded devices. The main focus is to explain in detail the approach used to optimize the linear algebra for selected low-power embedded devices, and to show how the high-performance implementation...

  6. Linear regressive model structures for estimation and prediction of compartmental diffusive systems

    Vries, D; Keesman, K.J.; Zwart, Heiko J.

    In input-output relations of (compartmental) diffusive systems, physical parameters appear non-linearly, resulting in the use of (constrained) non-linear parameter estimation techniques with its short-comings regarding global optimality and computational effort. Given a LTI system in state space

  7. Linear regressive model structures for estimation and prediction of compartmental diffusive systems

    Vries, D.; Keesman, K.J.; Zwart, H.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract In input-output relations of (compartmental) diffusive systems, physical parameters appear non-linearly, resulting in the use of (constrained) non-linear parameter estimation techniques with its short-comings regarding global optimality and computational effort. Given a LTI system in state

  8. A model for preemptive maintenance of medical linear accelerators—predictive maintenance

    Able, Charles M.; Baydush, Alan H.; Nguyen, Callistus; Gersh, Jacob; Ndlovu, Alois; Rebo, Igor; Booth, Jeremy; Perez, Mario; Sintay, Benjamin; Munley, Michael T.

    2016-01-01

    Unscheduled accelerator downtime can negatively impact the quality of life of patients during their struggle against cancer. Currently digital data accumulated in the accelerator system is not being exploited in a systematic manner to assist in more efficient deployment of service engineering resources. The purpose of this study is to develop an effective process for detecting unexpected deviations in accelerator system operating parameters and/or performance that predicts component failure or system dysfunction and allows maintenance to be performed prior to the actuation of interlocks. The proposed predictive maintenance (PdM) model is as follows: 1) deliver a daily quality assurance (QA) treatment; 2) automatically transfer and interrogate the resulting log files; 3) once baselines are established, subject daily operating and performance values to statistical process control (SPC) analysis; 4) determine if any alarms have been triggered; and 5) alert facility and system service engineers. A robust volumetric modulated arc QA treatment is delivered to establish mean operating values and perform continuous sampling and monitoring using SPC methodology. Chart limits are calculated using a hybrid technique that includes the use of the standard SPC 3σ limits and an empirical factor based on the parameter/system specification. There are 7 accelerators currently under active surveillance. Currently 45 parameters plus each MLC leaf (120) are analyzed using Individual and Moving Range (I/MR) charts. The initial warning and alarm rule is as follows: warning (2 out of 3 consecutive values ≥ 2σ hybrid ) and alarm (2 out of 3 consecutive values or 3 out of 5 consecutive values ≥ 3σ hybrid ). A customized graphical user interface provides a means to review the SPC charts for each parameter and a visual color code to alert the reviewer of parameter status. Forty-five synthetic errors/changes were introduced to test the effectiveness of our initial chart limits. Forty

  9. A Non-linear Predictive Model of Borderline Personality Disorder Based on Multilayer Perceptron.

    Maldonato, Nelson M; Sperandeo, Raffaele; Moretto, Enrico; Dell'Orco, Silvia

    2018-01-01

    Borderline Personality Disorder is a serious mental disease, classified in Cluster B of DSM IV-TR personality disorders. People with this syndrome presents an anamnesis of traumatic experiences and shows dissociative symptoms. Since not all subjects who have been victims of trauma develop a Borderline Personality Disorder, the emergence of this serious disease seems to have the fragility of character as a predisposing condition. Infect, numerous studies show that subjects positive for diagnosis of Borderline Personality Disorder had scores extremely high or extremely low to some temperamental dimensions (harm Avoidance and reward dependence) and character dimensions (cooperativeness and self directedness). In a sample of 602 subjects, who have had consecutive access to an Outpatient Mental Health Service, it was evaluated the presence of Borderline Personality Disorder using the semi-structured interview for the DSM IV-TR personality disorders. In this population we assessed the presence of dissociative symptoms with the Dissociative Experiences Scale and the personality traits with the Temperament and Character Inventory developed by Cloninger. To assess the weight and the predictive value of these psychopathological dimensions in relation to the Borderline Personality Disorder diagnosis, a neural network statistical model called "multilayer perceptron," was implemented. This model was developed with a dichotomous dependent variable, consisting in the presence or absence of the diagnosis of borderline personality disorder and with five covariates. The first one is the taxonomic subscale of dissociative experience scale, the others are temperamental and characterial traits: Novelty-Seeking, Harm-Avoidance, Self-Directedness and Cooperativeness. The statistical model, that results satisfactory, showed a significance capacity (89%) to predict the presence of borderline personality disorder. Furthermore, the dissociative symptoms seem to have a greater influence than

  10. A Non-linear Predictive Model of Borderline Personality Disorder Based on Multilayer Perceptron

    Nelson M. Maldonato

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Borderline Personality Disorder is a serious mental disease, classified in Cluster B of DSM IV-TR personality disorders. People with this syndrome presents an anamnesis of traumatic experiences and shows dissociative symptoms. Since not all subjects who have been victims of trauma develop a Borderline Personality Disorder, the emergence of this serious disease seems to have the fragility of character as a predisposing condition. Infect, numerous studies show that subjects positive for diagnosis of Borderline Personality Disorder had scores extremely high or extremely low to some temperamental dimensions (harm Avoidance and reward dependence and character dimensions (cooperativeness and self directedness. In a sample of 602 subjects, who have had consecutive access to an Outpatient Mental Health Service, it was evaluated the presence of Borderline Personality Disorder using the semi-structured interview for the DSM IV-TR personality disorders. In this population we assessed the presence of dissociative symptoms with the Dissociative Experiences Scale and the personality traits with the Temperament and Character Inventory developed by Cloninger. To assess the weight and the predictive value of these psychopathological dimensions in relation to the Borderline Personality Disorder diagnosis, a neural network statistical model called “multilayer perceptron,” was implemented. This model was developed with a dichotomous dependent variable, consisting in the presence or absence of the diagnosis of borderline personality disorder and with five covariates. The first one is the taxonomic subscale of dissociative experience scale, the others are temperamental and characterial traits: Novelty-Seeking, Harm-Avoidance, Self-Directedness and Cooperativeness. The statistical model, that results satisfactory, showed a significance capacity (89% to predict the presence of borderline personality disorder. Furthermore, the dissociative symptoms seem to have a

  11. A model for preemptive maintenance of medical linear accelerators-predictive maintenance.

    Able, Charles M; Baydush, Alan H; Nguyen, Callistus; Gersh, Jacob; Ndlovu, Alois; Rebo, Igor; Booth, Jeremy; Perez, Mario; Sintay, Benjamin; Munley, Michael T

    2016-03-10

    Unscheduled accelerator downtime can negatively impact the quality of life of patients during their struggle against cancer. Currently digital data accumulated in the accelerator system is not being exploited in a systematic manner to assist in more efficient deployment of service engineering resources. The purpose of this study is to develop an effective process for detecting unexpected deviations in accelerator system operating parameters and/or performance that predicts component failure or system dysfunction and allows maintenance to be performed prior to the actuation of interlocks. The proposed predictive maintenance (PdM) model is as follows: 1) deliver a daily quality assurance (QA) treatment; 2) automatically transfer and interrogate the resulting log files; 3) once baselines are established, subject daily operating and performance values to statistical process control (SPC) analysis; 4) determine if any alarms have been triggered; and 5) alert facility and system service engineers. A robust volumetric modulated arc QA treatment is delivered to establish mean operating values and perform continuous sampling and monitoring using SPC methodology. Chart limits are calculated using a hybrid technique that includes the use of the standard SPC 3σ limits and an empirical factor based on the parameter/system specification. There are 7 accelerators currently under active surveillance. Currently 45 parameters plus each MLC leaf (120) are analyzed using Individual and Moving Range (I/MR) charts. The initial warning and alarm rule is as follows: warning (2 out of 3 consecutive values ≥ 2σ hybrid) and alarm (2 out of 3 consecutive values or 3 out of 5 consecutive values ≥ 3σ hybrid). A customized graphical user interface provides a means to review the SPC charts for each parameter and a visual color code to alert the reviewer of parameter status. Forty-five synthetic errors/changes were introduced to test the effectiveness of our initial chart limits. Forty

  12. Group spike-and-slab lasso generalized linear models for disease prediction and associated genes detection by incorporating pathway information.

    Tang, Zaixiang; Shen, Yueping; Li, Yan; Zhang, Xinyan; Wen, Jia; Qian, Chen'ao; Zhuang, Wenzhuo; Shi, Xinghua; Yi, Nengjun

    2018-03-15

    Large-scale molecular data have been increasingly used as an important resource for prognostic prediction of diseases and detection of associated genes. However, standard approaches for omics data analysis ignore the group structure among genes encoded in functional relationships or pathway information. We propose new Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear models, called group spike-and-slab lasso GLMs, for predicting disease outcomes and detecting associated genes by incorporating large-scale molecular data and group structures. The proposed model employs a mixture double-exponential prior for coefficients that induces self-adaptive shrinkage amount on different coefficients. The group information is incorporated into the model by setting group-specific parameters. We have developed a fast and stable deterministic algorithm to fit the proposed hierarchal GLMs, which can perform variable selection within groups. We assess the performance of the proposed method on several simulated scenarios, by varying the overlap among groups, group size, number of non-null groups, and the correlation within group. Compared with existing methods, the proposed method provides not only more accurate estimates of the parameters but also better prediction. We further demonstrate the application of the proposed procedure on three cancer datasets by utilizing pathway structures of genes. Our results show that the proposed method generates powerful models for predicting disease outcomes and detecting associated genes. The methods have been implemented in a freely available R package BhGLM (http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/). nyi@uab.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  13. Spatial measurement error and correction by spatial SIMEX in linear regression models when using predicted air pollution exposures.

    Alexeeff, Stacey E; Carroll, Raymond J; Coull, Brent

    2016-04-01

    Spatial modeling of air pollution exposures is widespread in air pollution epidemiology research as a way to improve exposure assessment. However, there are key sources of exposure model uncertainty when air pollution is modeled, including estimation error and model misspecification. We examine the use of predicted air pollution levels in linear health effect models under a measurement error framework. For the prediction of air pollution exposures, we consider a universal Kriging framework, which may include land-use regression terms in the mean function and a spatial covariance structure for the residuals. We derive the bias induced by estimation error and by model misspecification in the exposure model, and we find that a misspecified exposure model can induce asymptotic bias in the effect estimate of air pollution on health. We propose a new spatial simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) procedure, and we demonstrate that the procedure has good performance in correcting this asymptotic bias. We illustrate spatial SIMEX in a study of air pollution and birthweight in Massachusetts. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Foundations of linear and generalized linear models

    Agresti, Alan

    2015-01-01

    A valuable overview of the most important ideas and results in statistical analysis Written by a highly-experienced author, Foundations of Linear and Generalized Linear Models is a clear and comprehensive guide to the key concepts and results of linear statistical models. The book presents a broad, in-depth overview of the most commonly used statistical models by discussing the theory underlying the models, R software applications, and examples with crafted models to elucidate key ideas and promote practical model building. The book begins by illustrating the fundamentals of linear models,

  15. High-performance small-scale solvers for linear Model Predictive Control

    Frison, Gianluca; Sørensen, Hans Henrik Brandenborg; Dammann, Bernd

    2014-01-01

    , with the two main research areas of explicit MPC and tailored on-line MPC. State-of-the-art solvers in this second class can outperform optimized linear-algebra libraries (BLAS) only for very small problems, and do not explicitly exploit the hardware capabilities, relying on compilers for that. This approach...

  16. A fast linear predictive adaptive model of packed bed coupled with UASB reactor treating onion waste to produce biofuel.

    Milquez-Sanabria, Harvey; Blanco-Cocom, Luis; Alzate-Gaviria, Liliana

    2016-10-03

    Agro-industrial wastes are an energy source for different industries. However, its application has not reached small industries. Previous and current research activities performed on the acidogenic phase of two-phase anaerobic digestion processes deal particularly with process optimization of the acid-phase reactors operating with a wide variety of substrates, both soluble and complex in nature. Mathematical models for anaerobic digestion have been developed to understand and improve the efficient operation of the process. At present, lineal models with the advantages of requiring less data, predicting future behavior and updating when a new set of data becomes available have been developed. The aim of this research was to contribute to the reduction of organic solid waste, generate biogas and develop a simple but accurate mathematical model to predict the behavior of the UASB reactor. The system was maintained separate for 14 days during which hydrolytic and acetogenic bacteria broke down onion waste, produced and accumulated volatile fatty acids. On this day, two reactors were coupled and the system continued for 16 days more. The biogas and methane yields and volatile solid reduction were 0.6 ± 0.05 m 3 (kg VS removed ) -1 , 0.43 ± 0.06 m 3 (kg VS removed ) -1 and 83.5 ± 9.8 %, respectively. The model application showed a good prediction of all process parameters defined; maximum error between experimental and predicted value was 1.84 % for alkalinity profile. A linear predictive adaptive model for anaerobic digestion of onion waste in a two-stage process was determined under batch-fed condition. Organic load rate (OLR) was maintained constant for the entire operation, modifying effluent hydrolysis reactor feed to UASB reactor. This condition avoids intoxication of UASB reactor and also limits external buffer addition.

  17. A Non-linear Model for Predicting Tip Position of a Pliable Robot Arm Segment Using Bending Sensor Data

    Elizabeth I. SKLAR

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Using pliable materials for the construction of robot bodies presents new and interesting challenges for the robotics community. Within the EU project entitled STIFFness controllable Flexible & Learnable manipulator for surgical Operations (STIFF-FLOP, a bendable, segmented robot arm has been developed. The exterior of the arm is composed of a soft material (silicone, encasing an internal structure that contains air-chamber actuators and a variety of sensors for monitoring applied force, position and shape of the arm as it bends. Due to the physical characteristics of the arm, a proper model of robot kinematics and dynamics is difficult to infer from the sensor data. Here we propose a non-linear approach to predicting the robot arm posture, by training a feed-forward neural network with a structured series of pressures values applied to the arm's actuators. The model is developed across a set of seven different experiments. Because the STIFF-FLOP arm is intended for use in surgical procedures, traditional methods for position estimation (based on visual information or electromagnetic tracking will not be possible to implement. Thus the ability to estimate pose based on data from a custom fiber-optic bending sensor and accompanying model is a valuable contribution. Results are presented which demonstrate the utility of our non-linear modelling approach across a range of data collection procedures.

  18. Dimension of linear models

    Høskuldsson, Agnar

    1996-01-01

    Determination of the proper dimension of a given linear model is one of the most important tasks in the applied modeling work. We consider here eight criteria that can be used to determine the dimension of the model, or equivalently, the number of components to use in the model. Four of these cri......Determination of the proper dimension of a given linear model is one of the most important tasks in the applied modeling work. We consider here eight criteria that can be used to determine the dimension of the model, or equivalently, the number of components to use in the model. Four...... the basic problems in determining the dimension of linear models. Then each of the eight measures are treated. The results are illustrated by examples....

  19. Genomic predictions across Nordic Holstein and Nordic Red using the genomic best linear unbiased prediction model with different genomic relationship matrices.

    Zhou, L; Lund, M S; Wang, Y; Su, G

    2014-08-01

    This study investigated genomic predictions across Nordic Holstein and Nordic Red using various genomic relationship matrices. Different sources of information, such as consistencies of linkage disequilibrium (LD) phase and marker effects, were used to construct the genomic relationship matrices (G-matrices) across these two breeds. Single-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model and two-trait GBLUP model were used for single-breed and two-breed genomic predictions. The data included 5215 Nordic Holstein bulls and 4361 Nordic Red bulls, which was composed of three populations: Danish Red, Swedish Red and Finnish Ayrshire. The bulls were genotyped with 50 000 SNP chip. Using the two-breed predictions with a joint Nordic Holstein and Nordic Red reference population, accuracies increased slightly for all traits in Nordic Red, but only for some traits in Nordic Holstein. Among the three subpopulations of Nordic Red, accuracies increased more for Danish Red than for Swedish Red and Finnish Ayrshire. This is because closer genetic relationships exist between Danish Red and Nordic Holstein. Among Danish Red, individuals with higher genomic relationship coefficients with Nordic Holstein showed more increased accuracies in the two-breed predictions. Weighting the two-breed G-matrices by LD phase consistencies, marker effects or both did not further improve accuracies of the two-breed predictions. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  20. Explicit/multi-parametric model predictive control (MPC) of linear discrete-time systems by dynamic and multi-parametric programming

    Kouramas, K.I.; Faí sca, N.P.; Panos, C.; Pistikopoulos, E.N.

    2011-01-01

    This work presents a new algorithm for solving the explicit/multi- parametric model predictive control (or mp-MPC) problem for linear, time-invariant discrete-time systems, based on dynamic programming and multi-parametric programming techniques

  1. Predictive modelling of chromium removal using multiple linear and nonlinear regression with special emphasis on operating parameters of bioelectrochemical reactor.

    More, Anand Govind; Gupta, Sunil Kumar

    2018-03-24

    Bioelectrochemical system (BES) is a novel, self-sustaining metal removal technology functioning on the utilization of chemical energy of organic matter with the help of microorganisms. Experimental trials of two chambered BES reactor were conducted with varying substrate concentration using sodium acetate (500 mg/L to 2000 mg/L COD) and different initial chromium concentration (Cr i ) (10-100 mg/L) at different cathode pH (pH 1-7). In the current study mathematical models based on multiple linear regression (MLR) and non-linear regression (NLR) approach were developed using laboratory experimental data for determining chromium removal efficiency (CRE) in the cathode chamber of BES. Substrate concentration, rate of substrate consumption, Cr i , pH, temperature and hydraulic retention time (HRT) were the operating process parameters of the reactor considered for development of the proposed models. MLR showed a better correlation coefficient (0.972) as compared to NLR (0.952). Validation of the models using t-test analysis revealed unbiasedness of both the models, with t critical value (2.04) greater than t-calculated values for MLR (-0.708) and NLR (-0.86). The root-mean-square error (RMSE) for MLR and NLR were 5.06 % and 7.45 %, respectively. Comparison between both models suggested MLR to be best suited model for predicting the chromium removal behavior using the BES technology to specify a set of operating conditions for BES. Modelling the behavior of CRE will be helpful for scale up of BES technology at industrial level. Copyright © 2018 The Society for Biotechnology, Japan. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Multiple linear regression models for predicting chronic aluminum toxicity to freshwater aquatic organisms and developing water quality guidelines.

    DeForest, David K; Brix, Kevin V; Tear, Lucinda M; Adams, William J

    2018-01-01

    The bioavailability of aluminum (Al) to freshwater aquatic organisms varies as a function of several water chemistry parameters, including pH, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and water hardness. We evaluated the ability of multiple linear regression (MLR) models to predict chronic Al toxicity to a green alga (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata), a cladoceran (Ceriodaphnia dubia), and a fish (Pimephales promelas) as a function of varying DOC, pH, and hardness conditions. The MLR models predicted toxicity values that were within a factor of 2 of observed values in 100% of the cases for P. subcapitata (10 and 20% effective concentrations [EC10s and EC20s]), 91% of the cases for C. dubia (EC10s and EC20s), and 95% (EC10s) and 91% (EC20s) of the cases for P. promelas. The MLR models were then applied to all species with Al toxicity data to derive species and genus sensitivity distributions that could be adjusted as a function of varying DOC, pH, and hardness conditions (the P. subcapitata model was applied to algae and macrophytes, the C. dubia model was applied to invertebrates, and the P. promelas model was applied to fish). Hazardous concentrations to 5% of the species or genera were then derived in 2 ways: 1) fitting a log-normal distribution to species-mean EC10s for all species (following the European Union methodology), and 2) fitting a triangular distribution to genus-mean EC20s for animals only (following the US Environmental Protection Agency methodology). Overall, MLR-based models provide a viable approach for deriving Al water quality guidelines that vary as a function of DOC, pH, and hardness conditions and are a significant improvement over bioavailability corrections based on single parameters. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:80-90. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  3. Similarities and Differences Between Warped Linear Prediction and Laguerre Linear Prediction

    Brinker, Albertus C. den; Krishnamoorthi, Harish; Verbitskiy, Evgeny A.

    2011-01-01

    Linear prediction has been successfully applied in many speech and audio processing systems. This paper presents the similarities and differences between two classes of linear prediction schemes, namely, Warped Linear Prediction (WLP) and Laguerre Linear Prediction (LLP). It is shown that both

  4. Linear and regressive stochastic models for prediction of daily maximum ozone values at Mexico City atmosphere

    Bravo, J. L [Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Nava, M. M [Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Gay, C [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2001-07-01

    We developed a procedure to forecast, with 2 or 3 hours, the daily maximum of surface ozone concentrations. It involves the adjustment of Autoregressive Integrated and Moving Average (ARIMA) models to daily ozone maximum concentrations at 10 monitoring atmospheric stations in Mexico City during one-year period. A one-day forecast is made and it is adjusted with the meteorological and solar radiation information acquired during the first 3 hours before the occurrence of the maximum value. The relative importance for forecasting of the history of the process and of meteorological conditions is evaluated. Finally an estimate of the daily probability of exceeding a given ozone level is made. [Spanish] Se aplica un procedimiento basado en la metodologia conocida como ARIMA, para predecir, con 2 o 3 horas de anticipacion, el valor maximo de la concentracion diaria de ozono. Esta basado en el calculo de autorregresiones y promedios moviles aplicados a los valores maximos de ozono superficial provenientes de 10 estaciones de monitoreo atmosferico en la Ciudad de Mexico y obtenidos durante un ano de muestreo. El pronostico para un dia se ajusta con la informacion meteorologica y de radiacion solar correspondiente a un periodo que antecede con al menos tres horas la ocurrencia esperada del valor maximo. Se compara la importancia relativa de la historia del proceso y de las condiciones meteorologicas previas para el pronostico. Finalmente se estima la probabilidad diaria de que un nivel normativo o preestablecido para contingencias de ozono sea rebasado.

  5. Prediction of SO{sub 2} pollution incidents near a power station using partially linear models and an historical matrix of predictor-response vectors

    Prada-Sanchez, J.M.; Febrero-Bande, M.; Gonzalez-Manteiga, W. [Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Dept. de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Costos-Yanez, T. [Universidad de Vigo, Dept. de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Orense (Spain); Bermudez-Cela, J.L.; Lucas-Dominguez, T. [Laboratorio, Central Termica de As Pontes, La Coruna (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    Atmospheric SO{sub 2} concentrations at sampling stations near the fossil fuel fired power station at As Pontes (La Coruna, Spain) were predicted using a model for the corresponding time series consisting of a self-explicative term and a linear combination of exogenous variables. In a supplementary simulation study, models of this kind behaved better than the corresponding pure self-explicative or pure linear regression models. (Author)

  6. Prediction of SO2 pollution incidents near a power station using partially linear models and an historical matrix of predictor-response vectors

    Prada-Sanchez, J.M.; Febrero-Bande, M.; Gonzalez-Manteiga, W.; Costos-Yanez, T.; Bermudez-Cela, J.L.; Lucas-Dominguez, T.

    2000-01-01

    Atmospheric SO 2 concentrations at sampling stations near the fossil fuel fired power station at As Pontes (La Coruna, Spain) were predicted using a model for the corresponding time series consisting of a self-explicative term and a linear combination of exogenous variables. In a supplementary simulation study, models of this kind behaved better than the corresponding pure self-explicative or pure linear regression models. (Author)

  7. Dimension of linear models

    Høskuldsson, Agnar

    1996-01-01

    Determination of the proper dimension of a given linear model is one of the most important tasks in the applied modeling work. We consider here eight criteria that can be used to determine the dimension of the model, or equivalently, the number of components to use in the model. Four...... the basic problems in determining the dimension of linear models. Then each of the eight measures are treated. The results are illustrated by examples....... of these criteria are widely used ones, while the remaining four are ones derived from the H-principle of mathematical modeling. Many examples from practice show that the criteria derived from the H-principle function better than the known and popular criteria for the number of components. We shall briefly review...

  8. Prediction of turbulent heat transfer with surface blowing using a non-linear algebraic heat flux model

    Bataille, F.; Younis, B.A.; Bellettre, J.; Lallemand, A.

    2003-01-01

    The paper reports on the prediction of the effects of blowing on the evolution of the thermal and velocity fields in a flat-plate turbulent boundary layer developing over a porous surface. Closure of the time-averaged equations governing the transport of momentum and thermal energy is achieved using a complete Reynolds-stress transport model for the turbulent stresses and a non-linear, algebraic and explicit model for the turbulent heat fluxes. The latter model accounts explicitly for the dependence of the turbulent heat fluxes on the gradients of mean velocity. Results are reported for the case of a heated boundary layer which is first developed into equilibrium over a smooth impervious wall before encountering a porous section through which cooler fluid is continuously injected. Comparisons are made with LDA measurements for an injection rate of 1%. The reduction of the wall shear stress with increase in injection rate is obtained in the calculations, and the computed rates of heat transfer between the hot flow and the wall are found to agree well with the published data

  9. Non linear viscoelastic models

    Agerkvist, Finn T.

    2011-01-01

    Viscoelastic eects are often present in loudspeaker suspensions, this can be seen in the displacement transfer function which often shows a frequency dependent value below the resonance frequency. In this paper nonlinear versions of the standard linear solid model (SLS) are investigated....... The simulations show that the nonlinear version of the Maxwell SLS model can result in a time dependent small signal stiness while the Kelvin Voight version does not....

  10. Complex terrain wind resource estimation with the wind-atlas method: Prediction errors using linearized and nonlinear CFD micro-scale models

    Troen, Ib; Bechmann, Andreas; Kelly, Mark C.

    2014-01-01

    Using the Wind Atlas methodology to predict the average wind speed at one location from measured climatological wind frequency distributions at another nearby location we analyse the relative prediction errors using a linearized flow model (IBZ) and a more physically correct fully non-linear 3D...... flow model (CFD) for a number of sites in very complex terrain (large terrain slopes). We first briefly describe the Wind Atlas methodology as implemented in WAsP and the specifics of the “classical” model setup and the new setup allowing the use of the CFD computation engine. We discuss some known...

  11. Bayesian integration of sensor information and a multivariate dynamic linear model for prediction of dairy cow mastitis.

    Jensen, Dan B; Hogeveen, Henk; De Vries, Albert

    2016-09-01

    Rapid detection of dairy cow mastitis is important so corrective action can be taken as soon as possible. Automatically collected sensor data used to monitor the performance and the health state of the cow could be useful for rapid detection of mastitis while reducing the labor needs for monitoring. The state of the art in combining sensor data to predict clinical mastitis still does not perform well enough to be applied in practice. Our objective was to combine a multivariate dynamic linear model (DLM) with a naïve Bayesian classifier (NBC) in a novel method using sensor and nonsensor data to detect clinical cases of mastitis. We also evaluated reductions in the number of sensors for detecting mastitis. With the DLM, we co-modeled 7 sources of sensor data (milk yield, fat, protein, lactose, conductivity, blood, body weight) collected at each milking for individual cows to produce one-step-ahead forecasts for each sensor. The observations were subsequently categorized according to the errors of the forecasted values and the estimated forecast variance. The categorized sensor data were combined with other data pertaining to the cow (week in milk, parity, mastitis history, somatic cell count category, and season) using Bayes' theorem, which produced a combined probability of the cow having clinical mastitis. If this probability was above a set threshold, the cow was classified as mastitis positive. To illustrate the performance of our method, we used sensor data from 1,003,207 milkings from the University of Florida Dairy Unit collected from 2008 to 2014. Of these, 2,907 milkings were associated with recorded cases of clinical mastitis. Using the DLM/NBC method, we reached an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89, with a specificity of 0.81 when the sensitivity was set at 0.80. Specificities with omissions of sensor data ranged from 0.58 to 0.81. These results are comparable to other studies, but differences in data quality, definitions of

  12. Deliberate practice predicts performance throughout time in adolescent chess players and dropouts: A linear mixed models analysis.

    de Bruin, A.B.H.; Smits, N.; Rikers, R.M.J.P.; Schmidt, H.G.

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the longitudinal relation between deliberate practice and performance in chess was examined using a linear mixed models analysis. The practice activities and performance ratings of young elite chess players, who were either in, or had dropped out of the Dutch national chess training,

  13. Sparsity in Linear Predictive Coding of Speech

    Giacobello, Daniele

    of the effectiveness of their application in audio processing. The second part of the thesis deals with introducing sparsity directly in the linear prediction analysis-by-synthesis (LPAS) speech coding paradigm. We first propose a novel near-optimal method to look for a sparse approximate excitation using a compressed...... one with direct applications to coding but also consistent with the speech production model of voiced speech, where the excitation of the all-pole filter can be modeled as an impulse train, i.e., a sparse sequence. Introducing sparsity in the LP framework will also bring to de- velop the concept...... sensing formulation. Furthermore, we define a novel re-estimation procedure to adapt the predictor coefficients to the given sparse excitation, balancing the two representations in the context of speech coding. Finally, the advantages of the compact parametric representation of a segment of speech, given...

  14. Limited Sampling Strategy for Accurate Prediction of Pharmacokinetics of Saroglitazar: A 3-point Linear Regression Model Development and Successful Prediction of Human Exposure.

    Joshi, Shuchi N; Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Parmar, Deven V

    2018-03-01

    Our aim was to develop and validate the extrapolative performance of a regression model using a limited sampling strategy for accurate estimation of the area under the plasma concentration versus time curve for saroglitazar. Healthy subject pharmacokinetic data from a well-powered food-effect study (fasted vs fed treatments; n = 50) was used in this work. The first 25 subjects' serial plasma concentration data up to 72 hours and corresponding AUC 0-t (ie, 72 hours) from the fasting group comprised a training dataset to develop the limited sampling model. The internal datasets for prediction included the remaining 25 subjects from the fasting group and all 50 subjects from the fed condition of the same study. The external datasets included pharmacokinetic data for saroglitazar from previous single-dose clinical studies. Limited sampling models were composed of 1-, 2-, and 3-concentration-time points' correlation with AUC 0-t of saroglitazar. Only models with regression coefficients (R 2 ) >0.90 were screened for further evaluation. The best R 2 model was validated for its utility based on mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error. Both correlations between predicted and observed AUC 0-t of saroglitazar and verification of precision and bias using Bland-Altman plot were carried out. None of the evaluated 1- and 2-concentration-time points models achieved R 2 > 0.90. Among the various 3-concentration-time points models, only 4 equations passed the predefined criterion of R 2 > 0.90. Limited sampling models with time points 0.5, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9323) and 0.75, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9375) were validated. Mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error were prediction of saroglitazar. The same models, when applied to the AUC 0-t prediction of saroglitazar sulfoxide, showed mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error model predicts the exposure of

  15. A primer on linear models

    Monahan, John F

    2008-01-01

    Preface Examples of the General Linear Model Introduction One-Sample Problem Simple Linear Regression Multiple Regression One-Way ANOVA First Discussion The Two-Way Nested Model Two-Way Crossed Model Analysis of Covariance Autoregression Discussion The Linear Least Squares Problem The Normal Equations The Geometry of Least Squares Reparameterization Gram-Schmidt Orthonormalization Estimability and Least Squares Estimators Assumptions for the Linear Mean Model Confounding, Identifiability, and Estimability Estimability and Least Squares Estimators F

  16. Large-scale linear programs in planning and prediction.

    2017-06-01

    Large-scale linear programs are at the core of many traffic-related optimization problems in both planning and prediction. Moreover, many of these involve significant uncertainty, and hence are modeled using either chance constraints, or robust optim...

  17. Linear zonal atmospheric prediction for adaptive optics

    McGuire, Patrick C.; Rhoadarmer, Troy A.; Coy, Hanna A.; Angel, J. Roger P.; Lloyd-Hart, Michael

    2000-07-01

    We compare linear zonal predictors of atmospheric turbulence for adaptive optics. Zonal prediction has the possible advantage of being able to interpret and utilize wind-velocity information from the wavefront sensor better than modal prediction. For simulated open-loop atmospheric data for a 2- meter 16-subaperture AO telescope with 5 millisecond prediction and a lookback of 4 slope-vectors, we find that Widrow-Hoff Delta-Rule training of linear nets and Back- Propagation training of non-linear multilayer neural networks is quite slow, getting stuck on plateaus or in local minima. Recursive Least Squares training of linear predictors is two orders of magnitude faster and it also converges to the solution with global minimum error. We have successfully implemented Amari's Adaptive Natural Gradient Learning (ANGL) technique for a linear zonal predictor, which premultiplies the Delta-Rule gradients with a matrix that orthogonalizes the parameter space and speeds up the training by two orders of magnitude, like the Recursive Least Squares predictor. This shows that the simple Widrow-Hoff Delta-Rule's slow convergence is not a fluke. In the case of bright guidestars, the ANGL, RLS, and standard matrix-inversion least-squares (MILS) algorithms all converge to the same global minimum linear total phase error (approximately 0.18 rad2), which is only approximately 5% higher than the spatial phase error (approximately 0.17 rad2), and is approximately 33% lower than the total 'naive' phase error without prediction (approximately 0.27 rad2). ANGL can, in principle, also be extended to make non-linear neural network training feasible for these large networks, with the potential to lower the predictor error below the linear predictor error. We will soon scale our linear work to the approximately 108-subaperture MMT AO system, both with simulations and real wavefront sensor data from prime focus.

  18. Evaluation of heat transfer mathematical models and multiple linear regression to predict the inside variables in semi-solar greenhouse

    M Taki

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Controlling greenhouse microclimate not only influences the growth of plants, but also is critical in the spread of diseases inside the greenhouse. The microclimate parameters were inside air, greenhouse roof and soil temperature, relative humidity and solar radiation intensity. Predicting the microclimate conditions inside a greenhouse and enabling the use of automatic control systems are the two main objectives of greenhouse climate model. The microclimate inside a greenhouse can be predicted by conducting experiments or by using simulation. Static and dynamic models are used for this purpose as a function of the metrological conditions and the parameters of the greenhouse components. Some works were done in past to 2015 year to simulation and predict the inside variables in different greenhouse structures. Usually simulation has a lot of problems to predict the inside climate of greenhouse and the error of simulation is higher in literature. The main objective of this paper is comparison between heat transfer and regression models to evaluate them to predict inside air and roof temperature in a semi-solar greenhouse in Tabriz University. Materials and Methods In this study, a semi-solar greenhouse was designed and constructed at the North-West of Iran in Azerbaijan Province (geographical location of 38°10′ N and 46°18′ E with elevation of 1364 m above the sea level. In this research, shape and orientation of the greenhouse, selected between some greenhouses common shapes and according to receive maximum solar radiation whole the year. Also internal thermal screen and cement north wall was used to store and prevent of heat lost during the cold period of year. So we called this structure, ‘semi-solar’ greenhouse. It was covered with glass (4 mm thickness. It occupies a surface of approximately 15.36 m2 and 26.4 m3. The orientation of this greenhouse was East–West and perpendicular to the direction of the wind prevailing

  19. Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive

    Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

    1998-01-01

    The paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems including open loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed extended for the control of non......-linear systems. GPC is model-based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis on an efficient Quasi......-Newton optimization algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....

  20. Evaluation of prediction capability, robustness, and sensitivity in non-linear landslide susceptibility models, Guantánamo, Cuba

    Melchiorre, C.; Castellanos Abella, E. A.; van Westen, C. J.; Matteucci, M.

    2011-04-01

    This paper describes a procedure for landslide susceptibility assessment based on artificial neural networks, and focuses on the estimation of the prediction capability, robustness, and sensitivity of susceptibility models. The study is carried out in the Guantanamo Province of Cuba, where 186 landslides were mapped using photo-interpretation. Twelve conditioning factors were mapped including geomorphology, geology, soils, landuse, slope angle, slope direction, internal relief, drainage density, distance from roads and faults, rainfall intensity, and ground peak acceleration. A methodology was used that subdivided the database in 3 subsets. A training set was used for updating the weights. A validation set was used to stop the training procedure when the network started losing generalization capability, and a test set was used to calculate the performance of the network. A 10-fold cross-validation was performed in order to show that the results are repeatable. The prediction capability, the robustness analysis, and the sensitivity analysis were tested on 10 mutually exclusive datasets. The results show that by means of artificial neural networks it is possible to obtain models with high prediction capability and high robustness, and that an exploration of the effect of the individual variables is possible, even if they are considered as a black-box model.

  1. Area under the curve predictions of dalbavancin, a new lipoglycopeptide agent, using the end of intravenous infusion concentration data point by regression analyses such as linear, log-linear and power models.

    Bhamidipati, Ravi Kanth; Syed, Muzeeb; Mullangi, Ramesh; Srinivas, Nuggehally

    2018-02-01

    1. Dalbavancin, a lipoglycopeptide, is approved for treating gram-positive bacterial infections. Area under plasma concentration versus time curve (AUC inf ) of dalbavancin is a key parameter and AUC inf /MIC ratio is a critical pharmacodynamic marker. 2. Using end of intravenous infusion concentration (i.e. C max ) C max versus AUC inf relationship for dalbavancin was established by regression analyses (i.e. linear, log-log, log-linear and power models) using 21 pairs of subject data. 3. The predictions of the AUC inf were performed using published C max data by application of regression equations. The quotient of observed/predicted values rendered fold difference. The mean absolute error (MAE)/root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (r) were used in the assessment. 4. MAE and RMSE values for the various models were comparable. The C max versus AUC inf exhibited excellent correlation (r > 0.9488). The internal data evaluation showed narrow confinement (0.84-1.14-fold difference) with a RMSE models predicted AUC inf with a RMSE of 3.02-27.46% with fold difference largely contained within 0.64-1.48. 5. Regardless of the regression models, a single time point strategy of using C max (i.e. end of 30-min infusion) is amenable as a prospective tool for predicting AUC inf of dalbavancin in patients.

  2. Dynamic Linear Models with R

    Campagnoli, Patrizia; Petris, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    State space models have gained tremendous popularity in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. Introducing general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. It illustrates the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R package.

  3. Predicting the effect of ionising radiation on biological populations: testing of a non-linear Leslie model applied to a small mammal population

    Monte, Luigi

    2013-01-01

    The present work describes the application of a non-linear Leslie model for predicting the effects of ionising radiation on wild populations. The model assumes that, for protracted chronic irradiation, the effect-dose relationship is linear. In particular, the effects of radiation are modelled by relating the increase in the mortality rates of the individuals to the dose rates through a proportionality factor C. The model was tested using independent data and information from a series of experiments that were aimed at assessing the response to radiation of wild populations of meadow voles and whose results were described in the international literature. The comparison of the model results with the data selected from the above mentioned experiments showed that the model overestimated the detrimental effects of radiation on the size of irradiated populations when the values of C were within the range derived from the median lethal dose (L 50 ) for small mammals. The described non-linear model suggests that the non-expressed biotic potential of the species whose growth is limited by processes of environmental resistance, such as the competition among the individuals of the same or of different species for the exploitation of the available resources, can be a factor that determines a more effective response of population to the radiation effects. -- Highlights: • A model to assess the radiation effects on wild population is described. • The model is based on non-linear Leslie matrix. • The model is applied to small mammals living in an irradiated meadow. • Model output is conservative if effect-dose factor estimated from L 50 is used. • Systemic response to stress of populations in competitive conditions may be more effective

  4. Use of non-linear mixed-effects modelling and regression analysis to predict the number of somatic coliphages by plaque enumeration after 3 hours of incubation.

    Mendez, Javier; Monleon-Getino, Antonio; Jofre, Juan; Lucena, Francisco

    2017-10-01

    The present study aimed to establish the kinetics of the appearance of coliphage plaques using the double agar layer titration technique to evaluate the feasibility of using traditional coliphage plaque forming unit (PFU) enumeration as a rapid quantification method. Repeated measurements of the appearance of plaques of coliphages titrated according to ISO 10705-2 at different times were analysed using non-linear mixed-effects regression to determine the most suitable model of their appearance kinetics. Although this model is adequate, to simplify its applicability two linear models were developed to predict the numbers of coliphages reliably, using the PFU counts as determined by the ISO after only 3 hours of incubation. One linear model, when the number of plaques detected was between 4 and 26 PFU after 3 hours, had a linear fit of: (1.48 × Counts 3 h + 1.97); and the other, values >26 PFU, had a fit of (1.18 × Counts 3 h + 2.95). If the number of plaques detected was PFU after 3 hours, we recommend incubation for (18 ± 3) hours. The study indicates that the traditional coliphage plating technique has a reasonable potential to provide results in a single working day without the need to invest in additional laboratory equipment.

  5. Introduction to generalized linear models

    Dobson, Annette J

    2008-01-01

    Introduction Background Scope Notation Distributions Related to the Normal Distribution Quadratic Forms Estimation Model Fitting Introduction Examples Some Principles of Statistical Modeling Notation and Coding for Explanatory Variables Exponential Family and Generalized Linear Models Introduction Exponential Family of Distributions Properties of Distributions in the Exponential Family Generalized Linear Models Examples Estimation Introduction Example: Failure Times for Pressure Vessels Maximum Likelihood Estimation Poisson Regression Example Inference Introduction Sampling Distribution for Score Statistics Taylor Series Approximations Sampling Distribution for MLEs Log-Likelihood Ratio Statistic Sampling Distribution for the Deviance Hypothesis Testing Normal Linear Models Introduction Basic Results Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Variance Analysis of Covariance General Linear Models Binary Variables and Logistic Regression Probability Distributions ...

  6. Development of a predictive model for distribution coefficient (Kd) of 13'7Cs and 60Co in marine sediments using multiple linear regression analysis

    Kumar, Ajay; Ravi, P.M.; Guneshwar, S.L.; Rout, Sabyasachi; Mishra, Manish K.; Pulhani, Vandana; Tripathi, R.M.

    2018-01-01

    Numerous common methods (batch laboratory, the column laboratory, field-batch method, field modeling and K 0c method) are used frequently for determination of K d values. Recently, multiple regression models are considered as new best estimates for predicting the K d of radionuclides in the environment. It is also well known fact that the K d value is highly influenced by physico-chemical properties of sediment. Due to the significant variability in influencing parameters, the measured K d values can range over several orders of magnitude under different environmental conditions. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model for K d values of 137 Cs and 60 Co based on the sediment properties using multiple linear regression analysis

  7. Non-linear model predictive supervisory controller for building, air handling unit with recuperator and refrigeration system with heat waste recovery

    Minko, Tomasz; Wisniewski, Rafal; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

    2016-01-01

    . The retrieved heat excess can be stored in the water tank. For this purpose the charging and the discharging water loops has been designed. We present the non-linear model of the above described system and a non-linear model predictive supervisory controller that according to the received price signal......, occupancy information and ambient temperature minimizes the operation cost of the whole system and distributes set points to local controllers of supermarkets subsystems. We find that when reliable information about the high price period is available, it is profitable to use the refrigeration system...... to generate heat during the low price period, store it and use it to substitute the conventional heater during the high price period....

  8. Deliberate practice predicts performance over time in adolescent chess players and drop-outs: a linear mixed models analysis.

    de Bruin, Anique B H; Smits, Niels; Rikers, Remy M J P; Schmidt, Henk G

    2008-11-01

    In this study, the longitudinal relation between deliberate practice and performance in chess was examined using a linear mixed models analysis. The practice activities and performance ratings of young elite chess players, who were either in, or had dropped out of the Dutch national chess training, were analysed since they had started playing chess seriously. The results revealed that deliberate practice (i.e. serious chess study alone and serious chess play) strongly contributed to chess performance. The influence of deliberate practice was not only observable in current performance, but also over chess players' careers. Moreover, although the drop-outs' chess ratings developed more slowly over time, both the persistent and drop-out chess players benefited to the same extent from investments in deliberate practice. Finally, the effect of gender on chess performance proved to be much smaller than the effect of deliberate practice. This study provides longitudinal support for the monotonic benefits assumption of deliberate practice, by showing that over chess players' careers, deliberate practice has a significant effect on performance, and to the same extent for chess players of different ultimate performance levels. The results of this study are not in line with critique raised against the deliberate practice theory that the factors deliberate practice and talent could be confounded.

  9. (Non) linear regression modelling

    Cizek, P.; Gentle, J.E.; Hardle, W.K.; Mori, Y.

    2012-01-01

    We will study causal relationships of a known form between random variables. Given a model, we distinguish one or more dependent (endogenous) variables Y = (Y1,…,Yl), l ∈ N, which are explained by a model, and independent (exogenous, explanatory) variables X = (X1,…,Xp),p ∈ N, which explain or

  10. Development of multiple linear regression models as predictive tools for fecal indicator concentrations in a stretch of the lower Lahn River, Germany.

    Herrig, Ilona M; Böer, Simone I; Brennholt, Nicole; Manz, Werner

    2015-11-15

    Since rivers are typically subject to rapid changes in microbiological water quality, tools are needed to allow timely water quality assessment. A promising approach is the application of predictive models. In our study, we developed multiple linear regression (MLR) models in order to predict the abundance of the fecal indicator organisms Escherichia coli (EC), intestinal enterococci (IE) and somatic coliphages (SC) in the Lahn River, Germany. The models were developed on the basis of an extensive set of environmental parameters collected during a 12-months monitoring period. Two models were developed for each type of indicator: 1) an extended model including the maximum number of variables significantly explaining variations in indicator abundance and 2) a simplified model reduced to the three most influential explanatory variables, thus obtaining a model which is less resource-intensive with regard to required data. Both approaches have the ability to model multiple sites within one river stretch. The three most important predictive variables in the optimized models for the bacterial indicators were NH4-N, turbidity and global solar irradiance, whereas chlorophyll a content, discharge and NH4-N were reliable model variables for somatic coliphages. Depending on indicator type, the extended mode models also included the additional variables rainfall, O2 content, pH and chlorophyll a. The extended mode models could explain 69% (EC), 74% (IE) and 72% (SC) of the observed variance in fecal indicator concentrations. The optimized models explained the observed variance in fecal indicator concentrations to 65% (EC), 70% (IE) and 68% (SC). Site-specific efficiencies ranged up to 82% (EC) and 81% (IE, SC). Our results suggest that MLR models are a promising tool for a timely water quality assessment in the Lahn area. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Patient-specific non-linear finite element modelling for predicting soft organ deformation in real-time: application to non-rigid neuroimage registration.

    Wittek, Adam; Joldes, Grand; Couton, Mathieu; Warfield, Simon K; Miller, Karol

    2010-12-01

    Long computation times of non-linear (i.e. accounting for geometric and material non-linearity) biomechanical models have been regarded as one of the key factors preventing application of such models in predicting organ deformation for image-guided surgery. This contribution presents real-time patient-specific computation of the deformation field within the brain for six cases of brain shift induced by craniotomy (i.e. surgical opening of the skull) using specialised non-linear finite element procedures implemented on a graphics processing unit (GPU). In contrast to commercial finite element codes that rely on an updated Lagrangian formulation and implicit integration in time domain for steady state solutions, our procedures utilise the total Lagrangian formulation with explicit time stepping and dynamic relaxation. We used patient-specific finite element meshes consisting of hexahedral and non-locking tetrahedral elements, together with realistic material properties for the brain tissue and appropriate contact conditions at the boundaries. The loading was defined by prescribing deformations on the brain surface under the craniotomy. Application of the computed deformation fields to register (i.e. align) the preoperative and intraoperative images indicated that the models very accurately predict the intraoperative deformations within the brain. For each case, computing the brain deformation field took less than 4 s using an NVIDIA Tesla C870 GPU, which is two orders of magnitude reduction in computation time in comparison to our previous study in which the brain deformation was predicted using a commercial finite element solver executed on a personal computer. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Genomic prediction based on data from three layer lines: a comparison between linear methods

    Calus, M.P.L.; Huang, H.; Vereijken, J.; Visscher, J.; Napel, ten J.; Windig, J.J.

    2014-01-01

    Background The prediction accuracy of several linear genomic prediction models, which have previously been used for within-line genomic prediction, was evaluated for multi-line genomic prediction. Methods Compared to a conventional BLUP (best linear unbiased prediction) model using pedigree data, we

  13. Nonlinear Modeling by Assembling Piecewise Linear Models

    Yao, Weigang; Liou, Meng-Sing

    2013-01-01

    To preserve nonlinearity of a full order system over a parameters range of interest, we propose a simple modeling approach by assembling a set of piecewise local solutions, including the first-order Taylor series terms expanded about some sampling states. The work by Rewienski and White inspired our use of piecewise linear local solutions. The assembly of these local approximations is accomplished by assigning nonlinear weights, through radial basis functions in this study. The efficacy of the proposed procedure is validated for a two-dimensional airfoil moving at different Mach numbers and pitching motions, under which the flow exhibits prominent nonlinear behaviors. All results confirm that our nonlinear model is accurate and stable for predicting not only aerodynamic forces but also detailed flowfields. Moreover, the model is robustness-accurate for inputs considerably different from the base trajectory in form and magnitude. This modeling preserves nonlinearity of the problems considered in a rather simple and accurate manner.

  14. Generalized, Linear, and Mixed Models

    McCulloch, Charles E; Neuhaus, John M

    2011-01-01

    An accessible and self-contained introduction to statistical models-now in a modernized new editionGeneralized, Linear, and Mixed Models, Second Edition provides an up-to-date treatment of the essential techniques for developing and applying a wide variety of statistical models. The book presents thorough and unified coverage of the theory behind generalized, linear, and mixed models and highlights their similarities and differences in various construction, application, and computational aspects.A clear introduction to the basic ideas of fixed effects models, random effects models, and mixed m

  15. A Warm-Started Homogeneous and Self-Dual Interior-Point Method for Linear Economic Model Predictive Control

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Skajaa, Anders; Frison, Gianluca

    2013-01-01

    algorithm in MATLAB and its performance is analyzed based on a smart grid power management case study. Closed loop simulations show that 1) our algorithm is significantly faster than state-of-the-art IPMs based on sparse linear algebra routines, and 2) warm-starting reduces the number of iterations...

  16. Development of a predictive model for lead, cadmium and fluorine soil-water partition coefficients using sparse multiple linear regression analysis.

    Nakamura, Kengo; Yasutaka, Tetsuo; Kuwatani, Tatsu; Komai, Takeshi

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we applied sparse multiple linear regression (SMLR) analysis to clarify the relationships between soil properties and adsorption characteristics for a range of soils across Japan and identify easily-obtained physical and chemical soil properties that could be used to predict K and n values of cadmium, lead and fluorine. A model was first constructed that can easily predict the K and n values from nine soil parameters (pH, cation exchange capacity, specific surface area, total carbon, soil organic matter from loss on ignition and water holding capacity, the ratio of sand, silt and clay). The K and n values of cadmium, lead and fluorine of 17 soil samples were used to verify the SMLR models by the root mean square error values obtained from 512 combinations of soil parameters. The SMLR analysis indicated that fluorine adsorption to soil may be associated with organic matter, whereas cadmium or lead adsorption to soil is more likely to be influenced by soil pH, IL. We found that an accurate K value can be predicted from more than three soil parameters for most soils. Approximately 65% of the predicted values were between 33 and 300% of their measured values for the K value; 76% of the predicted values were within ±30% of their measured values for the n value. Our findings suggest that adsorption properties of lead, cadmium and fluorine to soil can be predicted from the soil physical and chemical properties using the presented models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Multiple Linear Regression Modeling To Predict the Stability of Polymer-Drug Solid Dispersions: Comparison of the Effects of Polymers and Manufacturing Methods on Solid Dispersion Stability.

    Fridgeirsdottir, Gudrun A; Harris, Robert J; Dryden, Ian L; Fischer, Peter M; Roberts, Clive J

    2018-03-29

    Solid dispersions can be a successful way to enhance the bioavailability of poorly soluble drugs. Here 60 solid dispersion formulations were produced using ten chemically diverse, neutral, poorly soluble drugs, three commonly used polymers, and two manufacturing techniques, spray-drying and melt extrusion. Each formulation underwent a six-month stability study at accelerated conditions, 40 °C and 75% relative humidity (RH). Significant differences in times to crystallization (onset of crystallization) were observed between both the different polymers and the two processing methods. Stability from zero days to over one year was observed. The extensive experimental data set obtained from this stability study was used to build multiple linear regression models to correlate physicochemical properties of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) with the stability data. The purpose of these models is to indicate which combination of processing method and polymer carrier is most likely to give a stable solid dispersion. Six quantitative mathematical multiple linear regression-based models were produced based on selection of the most influential independent physical and chemical parameters from a set of 33 possible factors, one model for each combination of polymer and processing method, with good predictability of stability. Three general rules are proposed from these models for the formulation development of suitably stable solid dispersions. Namely, increased stability is correlated with increased glass transition temperature ( T g ) of solid dispersions, as well as decreased number of H-bond donors and increased molecular flexibility (such as rotatable bonds and ring count) of the drug molecule.

  18. Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive control

    Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems, including open-loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed to be extended for the control...... of non-linear systems. GPC is model based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model, a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis...... on an efficient quasi-Newton algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....

  19. Linear Prediction Using Refined Autocorrelation Function

    M. Shahidur Rahman

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new technique for improving the performance of linear prediction analysis by utilizing a refined version of the autocorrelation function. Problems in analyzing voiced speech using linear prediction occur often due to the harmonic structure of the excitation source, which causes the autocorrelation function to be an aliased version of that of the vocal tract impulse response. To estimate the vocal tract characteristics accurately, however, the effect of aliasing must be eliminated. In this paper, we employ homomorphic deconvolution technique in the autocorrelation domain to eliminate the aliasing effect occurred due to periodicity. The resulted autocorrelation function of the vocal tract impulse response is found to produce significant improvement in estimating formant frequencies. The accuracy of formant estimation is verified on synthetic vowels for a wide range of pitch frequencies typical for male and female speakers. The validity of the proposed method is also illustrated by inspecting the spectral envelopes of natural speech spoken by high-pitched female speaker. The synthesis filter obtained by the current method is guaranteed to be stable, which makes the method superior to many of its alternatives.

  20. Sparse Linear Identifiable Multivariate Modeling

    Henao, Ricardo; Winther, Ole

    2011-01-01

    and bench-marked on artificial and real biological data sets. SLIM is closest in spirit to LiNGAM (Shimizu et al., 2006), but differs substantially in inference, Bayesian network structure learning and model comparison. Experimentally, SLIM performs equally well or better than LiNGAM with comparable......In this paper we consider sparse and identifiable linear latent variable (factor) and linear Bayesian network models for parsimonious analysis of multivariate data. We propose a computationally efficient method for joint parameter and model inference, and model comparison. It consists of a fully...

  1. A linear model to predict with a multi-spectral radiometer the amount of nitrogen in winter wheat

    Reyniers, M.; Walvoort, D.J.J.; Baardemaaker, De J.

    2006-01-01

    The objective was to develop an optimal vegetation index (VIopt) to predict with a multi-spectral radiometer nitrogen in wheat crop (kg[N] ha-1). Optimality means that nitrogen in the crop can be measured accurately in the field during the growing season. It also means that the measurements are

  2. Parameterized Linear Longitudinal Airship Model

    Kulczycki, Eric; Elfes, Alberto; Bayard, David; Quadrelli, Marco; Johnson, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    A parameterized linear mathematical model of the longitudinal dynamics of an airship is undergoing development. This model is intended to be used in designing control systems for future airships that would operate in the atmospheres of Earth and remote planets. Heretofore, the development of linearized models of the longitudinal dynamics of airships has been costly in that it has been necessary to perform extensive flight testing and to use system-identification techniques to construct models that fit the flight-test data. The present model is a generic one that can be relatively easily specialized to approximate the dynamics of specific airships at specific operating points, without need for further system identification, and with significantly less flight testing. The approach taken in the present development is to merge the linearized dynamical equations of an airship with techniques for estimation of aircraft stability derivatives, and to thereby make it possible to construct a linearized dynamical model of the longitudinal dynamics of a specific airship from geometric and aerodynamic data pertaining to that airship. (It is also planned to develop a model of the lateral dynamics by use of the same methods.) All of the aerodynamic data needed to construct the model of a specific airship can be obtained from wind-tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamics

  3. EPMLR: sequence-based linear B-cell epitope prediction method using multiple linear regression.

    Lian, Yao; Ge, Meng; Pan, Xian-Ming

    2014-12-19

    B-cell epitopes have been studied extensively due to their immunological applications, such as peptide-based vaccine development, antibody production, and disease diagnosis and therapy. Despite several decades of research, the accurate prediction of linear B-cell epitopes has remained a challenging task. In this work, based on the antigen's primary sequence information, a novel linear B-cell epitope prediction model was developed using the multiple linear regression (MLR). A 10-fold cross-validation test on a large non-redundant dataset was performed to evaluate the performance of our model. To alleviate the problem caused by the noise of negative dataset, 300 experiments utilizing 300 sub-datasets were performed. We achieved overall sensitivity of 81.8%, precision of 64.1% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.728. We have presented a reliable method for the identification of linear B cell epitope using antigen's primary sequence information. Moreover, a web server EPMLR has been developed for linear B-cell epitope prediction: http://www.bioinfo.tsinghua.edu.cn/epitope/EPMLR/ .

  4. Application of single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction with a multiple-lactation random regression test-day model for Japanese Holsteins.

    Baba, Toshimi; Gotoh, Yusaku; Yamaguchi, Satoshi; Nakagawa, Satoshi; Abe, Hayato; Masuda, Yutaka; Kawahara, Takayoshi

    2017-08-01

    This study aimed to evaluate a validation reliability of single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP) with a multiple-lactation random regression test-day model and investigate an effect of adding genotyped cows on the reliability. Two data sets for test-day records from the first three lactations were used: full data from February 1975 to December 2015 (60 850 534 records from 2 853 810 cows) and reduced data cut off in 2011 (53 091 066 records from 2 502 307 cows). We used marker genotypes of 4480 bulls and 608 cows. Genomic enhanced breeding values (GEBV) of 305-day milk yield in all the lactations were estimated for at least 535 young bulls using two marker data sets: bull genotypes only and both bulls and cows genotypes. The realized reliability (R 2 ) from linear regression analysis was used as an indicator of validation reliability. Using only genotyped bulls, R 2 was ranged from 0.41 to 0.46 and it was always higher than parent averages. The very similar R 2 were observed when genotyped cows were added. An application of ssGBLUP to a multiple-lactation random regression model is feasible and adding a limited number of genotyped cows has no significant effect on reliability of GEBV for genotyped bulls. © 2016 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  5. Neural Generalized Predictive Control of a non-linear Process

    Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

    1998-01-01

    The use of neural network in non-linear control is made difficult by the fact the stability and robustness is not guaranteed and that the implementation in real time is non-trivial. In this paper we introduce a predictive controller based on a neural network model which has promising stability qu...... detail and discuss the implementation difficulties. The neural generalized predictive controller is tested on a pneumatic servo sys-tem.......The use of neural network in non-linear control is made difficult by the fact the stability and robustness is not guaranteed and that the implementation in real time is non-trivial. In this paper we introduce a predictive controller based on a neural network model which has promising stability...... qualities. The controller is a non-linear version of the well-known generalized predictive controller developed in linear control theory. It involves minimization of a cost function which in the present case has to be done numerically. Therefore, we develop the numerical algorithms necessary in substantial...

  6. Explicit/multi-parametric model predictive control (MPC) of linear discrete-time systems by dynamic and multi-parametric programming

    Kouramas, K.I.

    2011-08-01

    This work presents a new algorithm for solving the explicit/multi- parametric model predictive control (or mp-MPC) problem for linear, time-invariant discrete-time systems, based on dynamic programming and multi-parametric programming techniques. The algorithm features two key steps: (i) a dynamic programming step, in which the mp-MPC problem is decomposed into a set of smaller subproblems in which only the current control, state variables, and constraints are considered, and (ii) a multi-parametric programming step, in which each subproblem is solved as a convex multi-parametric programming problem, to derive the control variables as an explicit function of the states. The key feature of the proposed method is that it overcomes potential limitations of previous methods for solving multi-parametric programming problems with dynamic programming, such as the need for global optimization for each subproblem of the dynamic programming step. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Ground Motion Models for Future Linear Colliders

    Seryi, Andrei

    2000-01-01

    Optimization of the parameters of a future linear collider requires comprehensive models of ground motion. Both general models of ground motion and specific models of the particular site and local conditions are essential. Existing models are not completely adequate, either because they are too general, or because they omit important peculiarities of ground motion. The model considered in this paper is based on recent ground motion measurements performed at SLAC and at other accelerator laboratories, as well as on historical data. The issues to be studied for the models to become more predictive are also discussed

  8. Decomposable log-linear models

    Eriksen, Poul Svante

    can be characterized by a structured set of conditional independencies between some variables given some other variables. We term the new model class decomposable log-linear models, which is illustrated to be a much richer class than decomposable graphical models.It covers a wide range of non...... The present paper considers discrete probability models with exact computational properties. In relation to contingency tables this means closed form expressions of the maksimum likelihood estimate and its distribution. The model class includes what is known as decomposable graphicalmodels, which......-hierarchical models, models with structural zeroes, models described by quasi independence and models for level merging. Also, they have a very natural interpretation as they may be formulated by a structured set of conditional independencies between two events given some other event. In relation to contingency...

  9. Linear and Generalized Linear Mixed Models and Their Applications

    Jiang, Jiming

    2007-01-01

    This book covers two major classes of mixed effects models, linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models, and it presents an up-to-date account of theory and methods in analysis of these models as well as their applications in various fields. The book offers a systematic approach to inference about non-Gaussian linear mixed models. Furthermore, it has included recently developed methods, such as mixed model diagnostics, mixed model selection, and jackknife method in the context of mixed models. The book is aimed at students, researchers and other practitioners who are interested

  10. Improved Methods for Pitch Synchronous Linear Prediction Analysis of Speech

    劉, 麗清

    2015-01-01

    Linear prediction (LP) analysis has been applied to speech system over the last few decades. LP technique is well-suited for speech analysis due to its ability to model speech production process approximately. Hence LP analysis has been widely used for speech enhancement, low-bit-rate speech coding in cellular telephony, speech recognition, characteristic parameter extraction (vocal tract resonances frequencies, fundamental frequency called pitch) and so on. However, the performance of the co...

  11. Multicollinearity in hierarchical linear models.

    Yu, Han; Jiang, Shanhe; Land, Kenneth C

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates an ill-posed problem (multicollinearity) in Hierarchical Linear Models from both the data and the model perspectives. We propose an intuitive, effective approach to diagnosing the presence of multicollinearity and its remedies in this class of models. A simulation study demonstrates the impacts of multicollinearity on coefficient estimates, associated standard errors, and variance components at various levels of multicollinearity for finite sample sizes typical in social science studies. We further investigate the role multicollinearity plays at each level for estimation of coefficient parameters in terms of shrinkage. Based on these analyses, we recommend a top-down method for assessing multicollinearity in HLMs that first examines the contextual predictors (Level-2 in a two-level model) and then the individual predictors (Level-1) and uses the results for data collection, research problem redefinition, model re-specification, variable selection and estimation of a final model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Modelling Loudspeaker Non-Linearities

    Agerkvist, Finn T.

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates different techniques for modelling the non-linear parameters of the electrodynamic loudspeaker. The methods are tested not only for their accuracy within the range of original data, but also for the ability to work reasonable outside that range, and it is demonstrated...... that polynomial expansions are rather poor at this, whereas an inverse polynomial expansion or localized fitting functions such as the gaussian are better suited for modelling the Bl-factor and compliance. For the inductance the sigmoid function is shown to give very good results. Finally the time varying...

  13. Multivariate covariance generalized linear models

    Bonat, W. H.; Jørgensen, Bent

    2016-01-01

    are fitted by using an efficient Newton scoring algorithm based on quasi-likelihood and Pearson estimating functions, using only second-moment assumptions. This provides a unified approach to a wide variety of types of response variables and covariance structures, including multivariate extensions......We propose a general framework for non-normal multivariate data analysis called multivariate covariance generalized linear models, designed to handle multivariate response variables, along with a wide range of temporal and spatial correlation structures defined in terms of a covariance link...... function combined with a matrix linear predictor involving known matrices. The method is motivated by three data examples that are not easily handled by existing methods. The first example concerns multivariate count data, the second involves response variables of mixed types, combined with repeated...

  14. Linear and nonlinear dynamic systems in financial time series prediction

    Salim Lahmiri

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Autoregressive moving average (ARMA process and dynamic neural networks namely the nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARX are compared by evaluating their ability to predict financial time series; for instance the S&P500 returns. Two classes of ARMA are considered. The first one is the standard ARMA model which is a linear static system. The second one uses Kalman filter (KF to estimate and predict ARMA coefficients. This model is a linear dynamic system. The forecasting ability of each system is evaluated by means of mean absolute error (MAE and mean absolute deviation (MAD statistics. Simulation results indicate that the ARMA-KF system performs better than the standard ARMA alone. Thus, introducing dynamics into the ARMA process improves the forecasting accuracy. In addition, the ARMA-KF outperformed the NARX. This result may suggest that the linear component found in the S&P500 return series is more dominant than the nonlinear part. In sum, we conclude that introducing dynamics into the ARMA process provides an effective system for S&P500 time series prediction.

  15. Matrix algebra for linear models

    Gruber, Marvin H J

    2013-01-01

    Matrix methods have evolved from a tool for expressing statistical problems to an indispensable part of the development, understanding, and use of various types of complex statistical analyses. This evolution has made matrix methods a vital part of statistical education. Traditionally, matrix methods are taught in courses on everything from regression analysis to stochastic processes, thus creating a fractured view of the topic. Matrix Algebra for Linear Models offers readers a unique, unified view of matrix analysis theory (where and when necessary), methods, and their applications. Written f

  16. Experimental Confirmation of Nonlinear-Model- Predictive Control Applied Offline to a Permanent Magnet Linear Generator for Ocean-Wave Energy Conversion

    Tom, Nathan; Yeung, Ronald W.

    2015-01-01

    To further maximize power absorption in both regular and irregular ocean wave environments, nonlinear-model-predictive control (NMPC) was applied to a model-scale point absorber developed at the University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA. The NMPC strategy requires a power-takeoff (PTO) unit that could be turned on and off, as the generator would be inactive for up to 60% of the wave period. To confirm the effectiveness of this NMPC strategy, an in-house-designed permanent magnet linear generator (PMLG) was chosen as the PTO. The time-varying performance of the PMLG was first characterized by dry-bench tests, using mechanical relays to control the electromagnetic conversion process. The on/off sequencing of the PMLG was tested under regular and irregular wave excitation to validate NMPC simulations using control inputs obtained from running the choice optimizer offline. Experimental results indicate that successful implementation was achieved and absorbed power using NMPC was up to 50% greater than the passive system, which utilized no controller. Previous investigations into MPC applied to wave energy converters have lacked the experimental results to confirm the reported gains in power absorption. However, after considering the PMLG mechanical-to-electrical conversion efficiency, the electrical power output was not consistently maximized. To improve output power, a mathematical relation between the efficiency and damping magnitude of the PMLG was inserted in the system model to maximize the electrical power output through continued use of NMPC which helps separate this work from previous investigators. Of significance, results from latter simulations provided a damping time series that was active over a larger portion of the wave period requiring the actuation of the applied electrical load, rather than on/off control.

  17. [From clinical judgment to linear regression model.

    Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Pérez, Marcela; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Talavera, Juan O

    2013-01-01

    When we think about mathematical models, such as linear regression model, we think that these terms are only used by those engaged in research, a notion that is far from the truth. Legendre described the first mathematical model in 1805, and Galton introduced the formal term in 1886. Linear regression is one of the most commonly used regression models in clinical practice. It is useful to predict or show the relationship between two or more variables as long as the dependent variable is quantitative and has normal distribution. Stated in another way, the regression is used to predict a measure based on the knowledge of at least one other variable. Linear regression has as it's first objective to determine the slope or inclination of the regression line: Y = a + bx, where "a" is the intercept or regression constant and it is equivalent to "Y" value when "X" equals 0 and "b" (also called slope) indicates the increase or decrease that occurs when the variable "x" increases or decreases in one unit. In the regression line, "b" is called regression coefficient. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) indicates the importance of independent variables in the outcome.

  18. Virtual In-Silico Modeling Guided Catheter Ablation Predicts Effective Linear Ablation Lesion Set for Longstanding Persistent Atrial Fibrillation: Multicenter Prospective Randomized Study.

    Shim, Jaemin; Hwang, Minki; Song, Jun-Seop; Lim, Byounghyun; Kim, Tae-Hoon; Joung, Boyoung; Kim, Sung-Hwan; Oh, Yong-Seog; Nam, Gi-Byung; On, Young Keun; Oh, Seil; Kim, Young-Hoon; Pak, Hui-Nam

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Radiofrequency catheter ablation for persistent atrial fibrillation (PeAF) still has a substantial recurrence rate. This study aims to investigate whether an AF ablation lesion set chosen using in-silico ablation (V-ABL) is clinically feasible and more effective than an empirically chosen ablation lesion set (Em-ABL) in patients with PeAF. Methods: We prospectively included 108 patients with antiarrhythmic drug-resistant PeAF (77.8% men, age 60.8 ± 9.9 years), and randomly assigned them to the V-ABL ( n = 53) and Em-ABL ( n = 55) groups. Five different in-silico ablation lesion sets [1 pulmonary vein isolation (PVI), 3 linear ablations, and 1 electrogram-guided ablation] were compared using heart-CT integrated AF modeling. We evaluated the feasibility, safety, and efficacy of V-ABL compared with that of Em-ABL. Results: The pre-procedural computing time for five different ablation strategies was 166 ± 11 min. In the Em-ABL group, the earliest terminating blinded in-silico lesion set matched with the Em-ABL lesion set in 21.8%. V-ABL was not inferior to Em-ABL in terms of procedure time ( p = 0.403), ablation time ( p = 0.510), and major complication rate ( p = 0.900). During 12.6 ± 3.8 months of follow-up, the clinical recurrence rate was 14.0% in the V-ABL group and 18.9% in the Em-ABL group ( p = 0.538). In Em-ABL group, clinical recurrence rate was significantly lower after PVI+posterior box+anterior linear ablation, which showed the most frequent termination during in-silico ablation (log-rank p = 0.027). Conclusions: V-ABL was feasible in clinical practice, not inferior to Em-ABL, and predicts the most effective ablation lesion set in patients who underwent PeAF ablation.

  19. Nonabelian Gauged Linear Sigma Model

    Yongbin RUAN

    2017-01-01

    The gauged linear sigma model (GLSM for short) is a 2d quantum field theory introduced by Witten twenty years ago.Since then,it has been investigated extensively in physics by Hori and others.Recently,an algebro-geometric theory (for both abelian and nonabelian GLSMs) was developed by the author and his collaborators so that he can start to rigorously compute its invariants and check against physical predications.The abelian GLSM was relatively better understood and is the focus of current mathematical investigation.In this article,the author would like to look over the horizon and consider the nonabelian GLSM.The nonabelian case possesses some new features unavailable to the abelian GLSM.To aid the future mathematical development,the author surveys some of the key problems inspired by physics in the nonabelian GLSM.

  20. Fast Algorithms for High-Order Sparse Linear Prediction with Applications to Speech Processing

    Jensen, Tobias Lindstrøm; Giacobello, Daniele; van Waterschoot, Toon

    2016-01-01

    In speech processing applications, imposing sparsity constraints on high-order linear prediction coefficients and prediction residuals has proven successful in overcoming some of the limitation of conventional linear predictive modeling. However, this modeling scheme, named sparse linear prediction...... problem with lower accuracy than in previous work. In the experimental analysis, we clearly show that a solution with lower accuracy can achieve approximately the same performance as a high accuracy solution both objectively, in terms of prediction gain, as well as with perceptual relevant measures, when...... evaluated in a speech reconstruction application....

  1. Machine learning and linear regression models to predict catchment-level base cation weathering rates across the southern Appalachian Mountain region, USA

    Nicholas A. Povak; Paul F. Hessburg; Todd C. McDonnell; Keith M. Reynolds; Timothy J. Sullivan; R. Brion Salter; Bernard J. Crosby

    2014-01-01

    Accurate estimates of soil mineral weathering are required for regional critical load (CL) modeling to identify ecosystems at risk of the deleterious effects from acidification. Within a correlative modeling framework, we used modeled catchment-level base cation weathering (BCw) as the response variable to identify key environmental correlates and predict a continuous...

  2. Non-linear aeroelastic prediction for aircraft applications

    de C. Henshaw, M. J.; Badcock, K. J.; Vio, G. A.; Allen, C. B.; Chamberlain, J.; Kaynes, I.; Dimitriadis, G.; Cooper, J. E.; Woodgate, M. A.; Rampurawala, A. M.; Jones, D.; Fenwick, C.; Gaitonde, A. L.; Taylor, N. V.; Amor, D. S.; Eccles, T. A.; Denley, C. J.

    2007-05-01

    Current industrial practice for the prediction and analysis of flutter relies heavily on linear methods and this has led to overly conservative design and envelope restrictions for aircraft. Although the methods have served the industry well, it is clear that for a number of reasons the inclusion of non-linearity in the mathematical and computational aeroelastic prediction tools is highly desirable. The increase in available and affordable computational resources, together with major advances in algorithms, mean that non-linear aeroelastic tools are now viable within the aircraft design and qualification environment. The Partnership for Unsteady Methods in Aerodynamics (PUMA) Defence and Aerospace Research Partnership (DARP) was sponsored in 2002 to conduct research into non-linear aeroelastic prediction methods and an academic, industry, and government consortium collaborated to address the following objectives: To develop useable methodologies to model and predict non-linear aeroelastic behaviour of complete aircraft. To evaluate the methodologies on real aircraft problems. To investigate the effect of non-linearities on aeroelastic behaviour and to determine which have the greatest effect on the flutter qualification process. These aims have been very effectively met during the course of the programme and the research outputs include: New methods available to industry for use in the flutter prediction process, together with the appropriate coaching of industry engineers. Interesting results in both linear and non-linear aeroelastics, with comprehensive comparison of methods and approaches for challenging problems. Additional embryonic techniques that, with further research, will further improve aeroelastics capability. This paper describes the methods that have been developed and how they are deployable within the industrial environment. We present a thorough review of the PUMA aeroelastics programme together with a comprehensive review of the relevant research

  3. Deformation Prediction Using Linear Polynomial Functions ...

    By Deformation, we mean change of shape of any structure from its original shape and by monitoring over time using Geodetic means, the change in shape, size and the overall structural dynamics behaviors of structure can be detected. Prediction is therefor based on the epochs measurement obtained during monitoring, ...

  4. Predicting Fuel Ignition Quality Using 1H NMR Spectroscopy and Multiple Linear Regression

    Abdul Jameel, Abdul Gani; Naser, Nimal; Emwas, Abdul-Hamid M.; Dooley, Stephen; Sarathy, Mani

    2016-01-01

    An improved model for the prediction of ignition quality of hydrocarbon fuels has been developed using 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling. Cetane number (CN) and derived cetane number (DCN

  5. Study of linear induction motor characteristics : the Oberretl model

    1975-05-30

    The Oberretl theory of the double-sided linear induction motor (LIM) is examined, starting with the idealized model and accompanying assumptions, and ending with relations for predicted thrust, airgap power, and motor efficiency. The effect of varyin...

  6. Multivariate generalized linear mixed models using R

    Berridge, Damon Mark

    2011-01-01

    Multivariate Generalized Linear Mixed Models Using R presents robust and methodologically sound models for analyzing large and complex data sets, enabling readers to answer increasingly complex research questions. The book applies the principles of modeling to longitudinal data from panel and related studies via the Sabre software package in R. A Unified Framework for a Broad Class of Models The authors first discuss members of the family of generalized linear models, gradually adding complexity to the modeling framework by incorporating random effects. After reviewing the generalized linear model notation, they illustrate a range of random effects models, including three-level, multivariate, endpoint, event history, and state dependence models. They estimate the multivariate generalized linear mixed models (MGLMMs) using either standard or adaptive Gaussian quadrature. The authors also compare two-level fixed and random effects linear models. The appendices contain additional information on quadrature, model...

  7. Who Will Win?: Predicting the Presidential Election Using Linear Regression

    Lamb, John H.

    2007-01-01

    This article outlines a linear regression activity that engages learners, uses technology, and fosters cooperation. Students generated least-squares linear regression equations using TI-83 Plus[TM] graphing calculators, Microsoft[C] Excel, and paper-and-pencil calculations using derived normal equations to predict the 2004 presidential election.…

  8. Predictive Modeling in Race Walking

    Krzysztof Wiktorowicz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.

  9. Linear Logistic Test Modeling with R

    Baghaei, Purya; Kubinger, Klaus D.

    2015-01-01

    The present paper gives a general introduction to the linear logistic test model (Fischer, 1973), an extension of the Rasch model with linear constraints on item parameters, along with eRm (an R package to estimate different types of Rasch models; Mair, Hatzinger, & Mair, 2014) functions to estimate the model and interpret its parameters. The…

  10. Applicability of linear and non-linear potential flow models on a Wavestar float

    Bozonnet, Pauline; Dupin, Victor; Tona, Paolino

    2017-01-01

    as a model based on non-linear potential flow theory and weakscatterer hypothesis are successively considered. Simple tests, such as dip tests, decay tests and captive tests enable to highlight the improvements obtained with the introduction of nonlinearities. Float motion under wave actions and without...... control action, limited to small amplitude motion with a single float, is well predicted by the numerical models, including the linear one. Still, float velocity is better predicted by accounting for non-linear hydrostatic and Froude-Krylov forces.......Numerical models based on potential flow theory, including different types of nonlinearities are compared and validated against experimental data for the Wavestar wave energy converter technology. Exact resolution of the rotational motion, non-linear hydrostatic and Froude-Krylov forces as well...

  11. Reliability of the Load-Velocity Relationship Obtained Through Linear and Polynomial Regression Models to Predict the One-Repetition Maximum Load.

    Pestaña-Melero, Francisco Luis; Haff, G Gregory; Rojas, Francisco Javier; Pérez-Castilla, Alejandro; García-Ramos, Amador

    2017-12-18

    This study aimed to compare the between-session reliability of the load-velocity relationship between (1) linear vs. polynomial regression models, (2) concentric-only vs. eccentric-concentric bench press variants, as well as (3) the within-participants vs. the between-participants variability of the velocity attained at each percentage of the one-repetition maximum (%1RM). The load-velocity relationship of 30 men (age: 21.2±3.8 y; height: 1.78±0.07 m, body mass: 72.3±7.3 kg; bench press 1RM: 78.8±13.2 kg) were evaluated by means of linear and polynomial regression models in the concentric-only and eccentric-concentric bench press variants in a Smith Machine. Two sessions were performed with each bench press variant. The main findings were: (1) first-order-polynomials (CV: 4.39%-4.70%) provided the load-velocity relationship with higher reliability than second-order-polynomials (CV: 4.68%-5.04%); (2) the reliability of the load-velocity relationship did not differ between the concentric-only and eccentric-concentric bench press variants; (3) the within-participants variability of the velocity attained at each %1RM was markedly lower than the between-participants variability. Taken together, these results highlight that, regardless of the bench press variant considered, the individual determination of the load-velocity relationship by a linear regression model could be recommended to monitor and prescribe the relative load in the Smith machine bench press exercise.

  12. Core seismic behaviour: linear and non-linear models

    Bernard, M.; Van Dorsselaere, M.; Gauvain, M.; Jenapierre-Gantenbein, M.

    1981-08-01

    The usual methodology for the core seismic behaviour analysis leads to a double complementary approach: to define a core model to be included in the reactor-block seismic response analysis, simple enough but representative of basic movements (diagrid or slab), to define a finer core model, with basic data issued from the first model. This paper presents the history of the different models of both kinds. The inert mass model (IMM) yielded a first rough diagrid movement. The direct linear model (DLM), without shocks and with sodium as an added mass, let to two different ones: DLM 1 with independent movements of the fuel and radial blanket subassemblies, and DLM 2 with a core combined movement. The non-linear (NLM) ''CORALIE'' uses the same basic modelization (Finite Element Beams) but accounts for shocks. It studies the response of a diameter on flats and takes into account the fluid coupling and the wrapper tube flexibility at the pad level. Damping consists of one modal part of 2% and one part due to shocks. Finally, ''CORALIE'' yields the time-history of the displacements and efforts on the supports, but damping (probably greater than 2%) and fluid-structures interaction are still to be precised. The validation experiments were performed on a RAPSODIE core mock-up on scale 1, in similitude of 1/3 as to SPX 1. The equivalent linear model (ELM) was developed for the SPX 1 reactor-block response analysis and a specified seismic level (SB or SM). It is composed of several oscillators fixed to the diagrid and yields the same maximum displacements and efforts than the NLM. The SPX 1 core seismic analysis with a diagrid input spectrum which corresponds to a 0,1 g group acceleration, has been carried out with these models: some aspects of these calculations are presented here

  13. Flow discharge prediction in compound channels using linear genetic programming

    Azamathulla, H. Md.; Zahiri, A.

    2012-08-01

    SummaryFlow discharge determination in rivers is one of the key elements in mathematical modelling in the design of river engineering projects. Because of the inundation of floodplains and sudden changes in river geometry, flow resistance equations are not applicable for compound channels. Therefore, many approaches have been developed for modification of flow discharge computations. Most of these methods have satisfactory results only in laboratory flumes. Due to the ability to model complex phenomena, the artificial intelligence methods have recently been employed for wide applications in various fields of water engineering. Linear genetic programming (LGP), a branch of artificial intelligence methods, is able to optimise the model structure and its components and to derive an explicit equation based on the variables of the phenomena. In this paper, a precise dimensionless equation has been derived for prediction of flood discharge using LGP. The proposed model was developed using published data compiled for stage-discharge data sets for 394 laboratories, and field of 30 compound channels. The results indicate that the LGP model has a better performance than the existing models.

  14. Composite Linear Models | Division of Cancer Prevention

    By Stuart G. Baker The composite linear models software is a matrix approach to compute maximum likelihood estimates and asymptotic standard errors for models for incomplete multinomial data. It implements the method described in Baker SG. Composite linear models for incomplete multinomial data. Statistics in Medicine 1994;13:609-622. The software includes a library of thirty

  15. Actuarial statistics with generalized linear mixed models

    Antonio, K.; Beirlant, J.

    2007-01-01

    Over the last decade the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) in actuarial statistics has received a lot of attention, starting from the actuarial illustrations in the standard text by McCullagh and Nelder [McCullagh, P., Nelder, J.A., 1989. Generalized linear models. In: Monographs on Statistics

  16. Importance of time factor (γ/α) of linear quadratic (LQ) model for predicting laryngeal edema in irradiation treatment of early glottic cancer

    Deore, S.M.; Fontenla, D.P.; Beitler, J.J.; Vikram, B.

    1997-01-01

    PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE: The time factor (γ/α) in the LQ model has been considered irrelevant for the late normal tissue injury (1). The failure of the LQ model to predict spinal cord injury in the CHART protocol questions the validity of this hypothesis. In this investigation, the incidence of radiation induced laryngeal edema was evaluated retrospectively in patients treated with different dose fractionation regimes for carcinoma of glottic cancer (2). The BED values of the LQ model calculated for different values of time factor (γ/α) were correlated with the incidence of radiation induced laryngeal edema. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis was carried out for 208 patients T 1 and T 2 squamous cell cancer of the vocal cord treated with radical radiotherapy during 1975-80. There were 156 patients with T 1 lesions and the remaining 52 patients had T 2 lesions. All these patients were treated with three different fractionation regimens of 60.75 Gy/ 27 F/ 39 D, 60 Gy/24 F/34 D and 50 Gy/15 F/ 22 D, using fraction sizes 2.25 Gy, 2.5 Gy and 3.33 Gy, respectively. For the minimum follow up of 4 years, the incidence of laryngeal edema was related to fraction size (see table). To investigate the importance of the time factor (γ/α) of LQ model, BED values were calculated for different values of γ/α and ∞/β = 2.0 Gy. RESULTS: As shown in the table below, the incidence of radiation induced laryngeal edema was found in 17.2% of patients with 2.25 Gy/F compared to 44.4% using 3.33 Gy/F. The TDF model failed to correlate with the incidence of laryngeal edema. The BED values of LQ model also fails to show statistically significant correlation with the incidence of late complications. However, the BED values accounting for the time factor (particularly γ/α = 1.2 Gy/day) show significant improvement in correlation with incidence of laryngeal edema. CONCLUSION: For comparable TDF values the incidence of laryngeal edema varied from 17% to 44.4%. The analysis with

  17. Linear and non-linear autoregressive models for short-term wind speed forecasting

    Lydia, M.; Suresh Kumar, S.; Immanuel Selvakumar, A.; Edwin Prem Kumar, G.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Models for wind speed prediction at 10-min intervals up to 1 h built on time-series wind speed data. • Four different multivariate models for wind speed built based on exogenous variables. • Non-linear models built using three data mining algorithms outperform the linear models. • Autoregressive models based on wind direction perform better than other models. - Abstract: Wind speed forecasting aids in estimating the energy produced from wind farms. The soaring energy demands of the world and minimal availability of conventional energy sources have significantly increased the role of non-conventional sources of energy like solar, wind, etc. Development of models for wind speed forecasting with higher reliability and greater accuracy is the need of the hour. In this paper, models for predicting wind speed at 10-min intervals up to 1 h have been built based on linear and non-linear autoregressive moving average models with and without external variables. The autoregressive moving average models based on wind direction and annual trends have been built using data obtained from Sotavento Galicia Plc. and autoregressive moving average models based on wind direction, wind shear and temperature have been built on data obtained from Centre for Wind Energy Technology, Chennai, India. While the parameters of the linear models are obtained using the Gauss–Newton algorithm, the non-linear autoregressive models are developed using three different data mining algorithms. The accuracy of the models has been measured using three performance metrics namely, the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

  18. Comparing linear probability model coefficients across groups

    Holm, Anders; Ejrnæs, Mette; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    of the following three components: outcome truncation, scale parameters and distributional shape of the predictor variable. These results point to limitations in using linear probability model coefficients for group comparisons. We also provide Monte Carlo simulations and real examples to illustrate......This article offers a formal identification analysis of the problem in comparing coefficients from linear probability models between groups. We show that differences in coefficients from these models can result not only from genuine differences in effects, but also from differences in one or more...... these limitations, and we suggest a restricted approach to using linear probability model coefficients in group comparisons....

  19. Generalized Linear Models in Vehicle Insurance

    Silvie Kafková

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Actuaries in insurance companies try to find the best model for an estimation of insurance premium. It depends on many risk factors, e.g. the car characteristics and the profile of the driver. In this paper, an analysis of the portfolio of vehicle insurance data using a generalized linear model (GLM is performed. The main advantage of the approach presented in this article is that the GLMs are not limited by inflexible preconditions. Our aim is to predict the relation of annual claim frequency on given risk factors. Based on a large real-world sample of data from 57 410 vehicles, the present study proposed a classification analysis approach that addresses the selection of predictor variables. The models with different predictor variables are compared by analysis of deviance and Akaike information criterion (AIC. Based on this comparison, the model for the best estimate of annual claim frequency is chosen. All statistical calculations are computed in R environment, which contains stats package with the function for the estimation of parameters of GLM and the function for analysis of deviation.

  20. Comparison between linear quadratic and early time dose models

    Chougule, A.A.; Supe, S.J.

    1993-01-01

    During the 70s, much interest was focused on fractionation in radiotherapy with the aim of improving tumor control rate without producing unacceptable normal tissue damage. To compare the radiobiological effectiveness of various fractionation schedules, empirical formulae such as Nominal Standard Dose, Time Dose Factor, Cumulative Radiation Effect and Tumour Significant Dose, were introduced and were used despite many shortcomings. It has been claimed that a recent linear quadratic model is able to predict the radiobiological responses of tumours as well as normal tissues more accurately. We compared Time Dose Factor and Tumour Significant Dose models with the linear quadratic model for tumour regression in patients with carcinomas of the cervix. It was observed that the prediction of tumour regression estimated by the Tumour Significant Dose and Time Dose factor concepts varied by 1.6% from that of the linear quadratic model prediction. In view of the lack of knowledge of the precise values of the parameters of the linear quadratic model, it should be applied with caution. One can continue to use the Time Dose Factor concept which has been in use for more than a decade as its results are within ±2% as compared to that predicted by the linear quadratic model. (author). 11 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs

  1. Spaghetti Bridges: Modeling Linear Relationships

    Kroon, Cindy D.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematics and science are natural partners. One of many examples of this partnership occurs when scientific observations are made, thus providing data that can be used for mathematical modeling. Developing mathematical relationships elucidates such scientific principles. This activity describes a data-collection activity in which students employ…

  2. Validation of Individual Non-Linear Predictive Pharmacokinetic ...

    3Department of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia ... Purpose: To evaluate the predictive performance of phenytoin multiple dosing non-linear pharmacokinetic ... status epilepticus affects an estimated 152,000 ..... causal factors, i.e., infection, inflammation, tissue.

  3. Non-linear finite element modeling

    Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard

    The note is written for courses in "Non-linear finite element method". The note has been used by the author teaching non-linear finite element modeling at Civil Engineering at Aalborg University, Computational Mechanics at Aalborg University Esbjerg, Structural Engineering at the University...

  4. Frequency prediction by linear stability analysis around mean flow

    Bengana, Yacine; Tuckerman, Laurette

    2017-11-01

    The frequency of certain limit cycles resulting from a Hopf bifurcation, such as the von Karman vortex street, can be predicted by linear stability analysis around their mean flows. Barkley (2006) has shown this to yield an eigenvalue whose real part is zero and whose imaginary part matches the nonlinear frequency. This property was named RZIF by Turton et al. (2015); moreover they found that the traveling waves (TW) of thermosolutal convection have the RZIF property. They explained this as a consequence of the fact that the temporal Fourier spectrum is dominated by the mean flow and first harmonic. We could therefore consider that only the first mode is important in the saturation of the mean flow as presented in the Self-Consistent Model (SCM) of Mantic-Lugo et al. (2014). We have implemented a full Newton's method to solve the SCM for thermosolutal convection. We show that while the RZIF property is satisfied far from the threshold, the SCM model reproduces the exact frequency only very close to the threshold. Thus, the nonlinear interaction of only the first mode with itself is insufficiently accurate to estimate the mean flow. Our next step will be to take into account higher harmonics and to apply this analysis to the standing waves, for which RZIF does not hold.

  5. Correlations and Non-Linear Probability Models

    Breen, Richard; Holm, Anders; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2014-01-01

    the dependent variable of the latent variable model and its predictor variables. We show how this correlation can be derived from the parameters of non-linear probability models, develop tests for the statistical significance of the derived correlation, and illustrate its usefulness in two applications. Under......Although the parameters of logit and probit and other non-linear probability models are often explained and interpreted in relation to the regression coefficients of an underlying linear latent variable model, we argue that they may also be usefully interpreted in terms of the correlations between...... certain circumstances, which we explain, the derived correlation provides a way of overcoming the problems inherent in cross-sample comparisons of the parameters of non-linear probability models....

  6. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  7. Extended Linear Models with Gaussian Priors

    Quinonero, Joaquin

    2002-01-01

    In extended linear models the input space is projected onto a feature space by means of an arbitrary non-linear transformation. A linear model is then applied to the feature space to construct the model output. The dimension of the feature space can be very large, or even infinite, giving the model...... a very big flexibility. Support Vector Machines (SVM's) and Gaussian processes are two examples of such models. In this technical report I present a model in which the dimension of the feature space remains finite, and where a Bayesian approach is used to train the model with Gaussian priors...... on the parameters. The Relevance Vector Machine, introduced by Tipping, is a particular case of such a model. I give the detailed derivations of the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm used in the training. These derivations are not found in the literature, and might be helpful for newcomers....

  8. Linear mixed models for longitudinal data

    Molenberghs, Geert

    2000-01-01

    This paperback edition is a reprint of the 2000 edition. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of linear mixed models for continuous longitudinal data. Next to model formulation, this edition puts major emphasis on exploratory data analysis for all aspects of the model, such as the marginal model, subject-specific profiles, and residual covariance structure. Further, model diagnostics and missing data receive extensive treatment. Sensitivity analysis for incomplete data is given a prominent place. Several variations to the conventional linear mixed model are discussed (a heterogeity model, conditional linear mixed models). This book will be of interest to applied statisticians and biomedical researchers in industry, public health organizations, contract research organizations, and academia. The book is explanatory rather than mathematically rigorous. Most analyses were done with the MIXED procedure of the SAS software package, and many of its features are clearly elucidated. However, some other commerc...

  9. Linear mixed models in sensometrics

    Kuznetsova, Alexandra

    quality of decision making in Danish as well as international food companies and other companies using the same methods. The two open-source R packages lmerTest and SensMixed implement and support the methodological developments in the research papers as well as the ANOVA modelling part of the Consumer...... an open-source software tool ConsumerCheck was developed in this project and now is available for everyone. will represent a major step forward when concerns this important problem in modern consumer driven product development. Standard statistical software packages can be used for some of the purposes......Today’s companies and researchers gather large amounts of data of different kind. In consumer studies the objective is the collection of the data to better understand consumer acceptance of products. In such studies a number of persons (generally not trained) are selected in order to score products...

  10. Linear causal modeling with structural equations

    Mulaik, Stanley A

    2009-01-01

    Emphasizing causation as a functional relationship between variables that describe objects, Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations integrates a general philosophical theory of causation with structural equation modeling (SEM) that concerns the special case of linear causal relations. In addition to describing how the functional relation concept may be generalized to treat probabilistic causation, the book reviews historical treatments of causation and explores recent developments in experimental psychology on studies of the perception of causation. It looks at how to perceive causal

  11. Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models

    Khuri, André I; Sinha, Bimal K

    2011-01-01

    An advanced discussion of linear models with mixed or random effects. In recent years a breakthrough has occurred in our ability to draw inferences from exact and optimum tests of variance component models, generating much research activity that relies on linear models with mixed and random effects. This volume covers the most important research of the past decade as well as the latest developments in hypothesis testing. It compiles all currently available results in the area of exact and optimum tests for variance component models and offers the only comprehensive treatment for these models a

  12. Matrix Tricks for Linear Statistical Models

    Puntanen, Simo; Styan, George PH

    2011-01-01

    In teaching linear statistical models to first-year graduate students or to final-year undergraduate students there is no way to proceed smoothly without matrices and related concepts of linear algebra; their use is really essential. Our experience is that making some particular matrix tricks very familiar to students can substantially increase their insight into linear statistical models (and also multivariate statistical analysis). In matrix algebra, there are handy, sometimes even very simple "tricks" which simplify and clarify the treatment of a problem - both for the student and

  13. Forecasting the EMU inflation rate: Linear econometric vs. non-linear computational models using genetic neural fuzzy systems

    Kooths, Stefan; Mitze, Timo Friedel; Ringhut, Eric

    2004-01-01

    This paper compares the predictive power of linear econometric and non-linear computational models for forecasting the inflation rate in the European Monetary Union (EMU). Various models of both types are developed using different monetary and real activity indicators. They are compared according...

  14. Modeling digital switching circuits with linear algebra

    Thornton, Mitchell A

    2014-01-01

    Modeling Digital Switching Circuits with Linear Algebra describes an approach for modeling digital information and circuitry that is an alternative to Boolean algebra. While the Boolean algebraic model has been wildly successful and is responsible for many advances in modern information technology, the approach described in this book offers new insight and different ways of solving problems. Modeling the bit as a vector instead of a scalar value in the set {0, 1} allows digital circuits to be characterized with transfer functions in the form of a linear transformation matrix. The use of transf

  15. Applicability of a Single Time Point Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Concentration Curve of Linezolid in Patients: Superiority of Ctrough- over Cmax-Derived Linear Regression Models.

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Syed, Muzeeb

    2016-03-01

    Linezolid, a oxazolidinone, was the first in class to be approved for the treatment of bacterial infections arising from both susceptible and resistant strains of Gram-positive bacteria. Since overt exposure of linezolid may precipitate serious toxicity issues, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may be required in certain situations, especially in patients who are prescribed other co-medications. Using appropriate oral pharmacokinetic data (single dose and steady state) for linezolid, both maximum plasma drug concentration (Cmax) versus area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) and minimum plasma drug concentration (Cmin) versus AUC relationship was established by linear regression models. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax or Cmin data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted values rendered fold difference calculation. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and the goodness of the AUC fold prediction were used to evaluate the two models. The Cmax versus AUC and trough plasma concentration (Ctrough) versus AUC models displayed excellent correlation, with r values of >0.9760. However, linezolid AUC values were predicted to be within the narrower boundary of 0.76 to 1.5-fold by a higher percentage by the Ctrough (78.3%) versus Cmax model (48.2%). The Ctrough model showed superior correlation of predicted versus observed values and RMSE (r = 0.9031; 28.54%, respectively) compared with the Cmax model (r = 0.5824; 61.34%, respectively). A single time point strategy of using Ctrough level is possible as a prospective tool to measure the AUC of linezolid in the patient population.

  16. Updating Linear Schedules with Lowest Cost: a Linear Programming Model

    Biruk, Sławomir; Jaśkowski, Piotr; Czarnigowska, Agata

    2017-10-01

    Many civil engineering projects involve sets of tasks repeated in a predefined sequence in a number of work areas along a particular route. A useful graphical representation of schedules of such projects is time-distance diagrams that clearly show what process is conducted at a particular point of time and in particular location. With repetitive tasks, the quality of project performance is conditioned by the ability of the planner to optimize workflow by synchronizing the works and resources, which usually means that resources are planned to be continuously utilized. However, construction processes are prone to risks, and a fully synchronized schedule may expire if a disturbance (bad weather, machine failure etc.) affects even one task. In such cases, works need to be rescheduled, and another optimal schedule should be built for the changed circumstances. This typically means that, to meet the fixed completion date, durations of operations have to be reduced. A number of measures are possible to achieve such reduction: working overtime, employing more resources or relocating resources from less to more critical tasks, but they all come at a considerable cost and affect the whole project. The paper investigates the problem of selecting the measures that reduce durations of tasks of a linear project so that the cost of these measures is kept to the minimum and proposes an algorithm that could be applied to find optimal solutions as the need to reschedule arises. Considering that civil engineering projects, such as road building, usually involve less process types than construction projects, the complexity of scheduling problems is lower, and precise optimization algorithms can be applied. Therefore, the authors put forward a linear programming model of the problem and illustrate its principle of operation with an example.

  17. Archaeological predictive model set.

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  18. Linear control theory for gene network modeling.

    Shin, Yong-Jun; Bleris, Leonidas

    2010-09-16

    Systems biology is an interdisciplinary field that aims at understanding complex interactions in cells. Here we demonstrate that linear control theory can provide valuable insight and practical tools for the characterization of complex biological networks. We provide the foundation for such analyses through the study of several case studies including cascade and parallel forms, feedback and feedforward loops. We reproduce experimental results and provide rational analysis of the observed behavior. We demonstrate that methods such as the transfer function (frequency domain) and linear state-space (time domain) can be used to predict reliably the properties and transient behavior of complex network topologies and point to specific design strategies for synthetic networks.

  19. Wind power prediction models

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  20. A linear model of ductile plastic damage

    Lemaitre, J.

    1983-01-01

    A three-dimensional model of isotropic ductile plastic damage based on a continuum damage variable on the effective stress concept and on thermodynamics is derived. As shown by experiments on several metals and alloys, the model, integrated in the case of proportional loading, is linear with respect to the accumulated plastic strain and shows a large influence of stress triaxiality [fr

  1. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  2. Application of Hierarchical Linear Models/Linear Mixed-Effects Models in School Effectiveness Research

    Ker, H. W.

    2014-01-01

    Multilevel data are very common in educational research. Hierarchical linear models/linear mixed-effects models (HLMs/LMEs) are often utilized to analyze multilevel data nowadays. This paper discusses the problems of utilizing ordinary regressions for modeling multilevel educational data, compare the data analytic results from three regression…

  3. Extending the linear model with R generalized linear, mixed effects and nonparametric regression models

    Faraway, Julian J

    2005-01-01

    Linear models are central to the practice of statistics and form the foundation of a vast range of statistical methodologies. Julian J. Faraway''s critically acclaimed Linear Models with R examined regression and analysis of variance, demonstrated the different methods available, and showed in which situations each one applies. Following in those footsteps, Extending the Linear Model with R surveys the techniques that grow from the regression model, presenting three extensions to that framework: generalized linear models (GLMs), mixed effect models, and nonparametric regression models. The author''s treatment is thoroughly modern and covers topics that include GLM diagnostics, generalized linear mixed models, trees, and even the use of neural networks in statistics. To demonstrate the interplay of theory and practice, throughout the book the author weaves the use of the R software environment to analyze the data of real examples, providing all of the R commands necessary to reproduce the analyses. All of the ...

  4. Structural Dynamic Analyses And Test Predictions For Spacecraft Structures With Non-Linearities

    Vergniaud, Jean-Baptiste; Soula, Laurent; Newerla, Alfred

    2012-07-01

    The overall objective of the mechanical development and verification process is to ensure that the spacecraft structure is able to sustain the mechanical environments encountered during launch. In general the spacecraft structures are a-priori assumed to behave linear, i.e. the responses to a static load or dynamic excitation, respectively, will increase or decrease proportionally to the amplitude of the load or excitation induced. However, past experiences have shown that various non-linearities might exist in spacecraft structures and the consequences of their dynamic effects can significantly affect the development and verification process. Current processes are mainly adapted to linear spacecraft structure behaviour. No clear rules exist for dealing with major structure non-linearities. They are handled outside the process by individual analysis and margin policy, and analyses after tests to justify the CLA coverage. Non-linearities can primarily affect the current spacecraft development and verification process on two aspects. Prediction of flights loads by launcher/satellite coupled loads analyses (CLA): only linear satellite models are delivered for performing CLA and no well-established rules exist how to properly linearize a model when non- linearities are present. The potential impact of the linearization on the results of the CLA has not yet been properly analyzed. There are thus difficulties to assess that CLA results will cover actual flight levels. Management of satellite verification tests: the CLA results generated with a linear satellite FEM are assumed flight representative. If the internal non- linearities are present in the tested satellite then there might be difficulties to determine which input level must be passed to cover satellite internal loads. The non-linear behaviour can also disturb the shaker control, putting the satellite at risk by potentially imposing too high levels. This paper presents the results of a test campaign performed in

  5. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  6. Modelling female fertility traits in beef cattle using linear and non-linear models.

    Naya, H; Peñagaricano, F; Urioste, J I

    2017-06-01

    Female fertility traits are key components of the profitability of beef cattle production. However, these traits are difficult and expensive to measure, particularly under extensive pastoral conditions, and consequently, fertility records are in general scarce and somehow incomplete. Moreover, fertility traits are usually dominated by the effects of herd-year environment, and it is generally assumed that relatively small margins are kept for genetic improvement. New ways of modelling genetic variation in these traits are needed. Inspired in the methodological developments made by Prof. Daniel Gianola and co-workers, we assayed linear (Gaussian), Poisson, probit (threshold), censored Poisson and censored Gaussian models to three different kinds of endpoints, namely calving success (CS), number of days from first calving (CD) and number of failed oestrus (FE). For models involving FE and CS, non-linear models overperformed their linear counterparts. For models derived from CD, linear versions displayed better adjustment than the non-linear counterparts. Non-linear models showed consistently higher estimates of heritability and repeatability in all cases (h 2  linear models; h 2  > 0.23 and r > 0.24, for non-linear models). While additive and permanent environment effects showed highly favourable correlations between all models (>0.789), consistency in selecting the 10% best sires showed important differences, mainly amongst the considered endpoints (FE, CS and CD). In consequence, endpoints should be considered as modelling different underlying genetic effects, with linear models more appropriate to describe CD and non-linear models better for FE and CS. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  7. Non-linear model supported predicted strategy of regulation for the block regulation of a membrane based oxyfuel power plant process; Nichtlineare modellgestuetzte praediktive Regelungsstrategie fuer Blockregelung eines membranbasierten Oxyfuel-Kraftwerksprozesses

    Hoelemann, Sebastian

    2011-07-01

    As a part of the OXYCOAL AC project a concept of a fossil-fired power plant without emissions of CO{sub 2} is developed in which the recirculated flue gas in a high-temperature ceramic membrane is enriched with oxygen for the combustion of coal. This enables a separation of CO{sub 2} at relatively low efficiency losses. The contribution under consideration deals with the design of a block control strategy for this dynamic extremely demanding process. A cascaded control structure with two non-linear model-based predictive controllers is implemented. An essential component of the cascade structure is an adaptation of this specially developed algorithm with which the underlying controller determines the values for restrictions that are valid in the super-posed regulator in determining the setpoint. The block control approach is examined using a simulation model.

  8. A unified frame of predicting side effects of drugs by using linear neighborhood similarity.

    Zhang, Wen; Yue, Xiang; Liu, Feng; Chen, Yanlin; Tu, Shikui; Zhang, Xining

    2017-12-14

    Drug side effects are one of main concerns in the drug discovery, which gains wide attentions. Investigating drug side effects is of great importance, and the computational prediction can help to guide wet experiments. As far as we known, a great number of computational methods have been proposed for the side effect predictions. The assumption that similar drugs may induce same side effects is usually employed for modeling, and how to calculate the drug-drug similarity is critical in the side effect predictions. In this paper, we present a novel measure of drug-drug similarity named "linear neighborhood similarity", which is calculated in a drug feature space by exploring linear neighborhood relationship. Then, we transfer the similarity from the feature space into the side effect space, and predict drug side effects by propagating known side effect information through a similarity-based graph. Under a unified frame based on the linear neighborhood similarity, we propose method "LNSM" and its extension "LNSM-SMI" to predict side effects of new drugs, and propose the method "LNSM-MSE" to predict unobserved side effect of approved drugs. We evaluate the performances of LNSM and LNSM-SMI in predicting side effects of new drugs, and evaluate the performances of LNSM-MSE in predicting missing side effects of approved drugs. The results demonstrate that the linear neighborhood similarity can improve the performances of side effect prediction, and the linear neighborhood similarity-based methods can outperform existing side effect prediction methods. More importantly, the proposed methods can predict side effects of new drugs as well as unobserved side effects of approved drugs under a unified frame.

  9. Modelling point patterns with linear structures

    Møller, Jesper; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2009-01-01

    processes whose realizations contain such linear structures. Such a point process is constructed sequentially by placing one point at a time. The points are placed in such a way that new points are often placed close to previously placed points, and the points form roughly line shaped structures. We...... consider simulations of this model and compare with real data....

  10. Modelling point patterns with linear structures

    Møller, Jesper; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    processes whose realizations contain such linear structures. Such a point process is constructed sequentially by placing one point at a time. The points are placed in such a way that new points are often placed close to previously placed points, and the points form roughly line shaped structures. We...... consider simulations of this model and compare with real data....

  11. Optimal designs for linear mixture models

    Mendieta, E.J.; Linssen, H.N.; Doornbos, R.

    1975-01-01

    In a recent paper Snee and Marquardt [8] considered designs for linear mixture models, where the components are subject to individual lower and/or upper bounds. When the number of components is large their algorithm XVERT yields designs far too extensive for practical purposes. The purpose of this

  12. Optimal designs for linear mixture models

    Mendieta, E.J.; Linssen, H.N.; Doornbos, R.

    1975-01-01

    In a recent paper Snee and Marquardt (1974) considered designs for linear mixture models, where the components are subject to individual lower and/or upper bounds. When the number of components is large their algorithm XVERT yields designs far too extensive for practical purposes. The purpose of

  13. Linear factor copula models and their properties

    Krupskii, Pavel; Genton, Marc G.

    2018-01-01

    We consider a special case of factor copula models with additive common factors and independent components. These models are flexible and parsimonious with O(d) parameters where d is the dimension. The linear structure allows one to obtain closed form expressions for some copulas and their extreme‐value limits. These copulas can be used to model data with strong tail dependencies, such as extreme data. We study the dependence properties of these linear factor copula models and derive the corresponding limiting extreme‐value copulas with a factor structure. We show how parameter estimates can be obtained for these copulas and apply one of these copulas to analyse a financial data set.

  14. Linear factor copula models and their properties

    Krupskii, Pavel

    2018-04-25

    We consider a special case of factor copula models with additive common factors and independent components. These models are flexible and parsimonious with O(d) parameters where d is the dimension. The linear structure allows one to obtain closed form expressions for some copulas and their extreme‐value limits. These copulas can be used to model data with strong tail dependencies, such as extreme data. We study the dependence properties of these linear factor copula models and derive the corresponding limiting extreme‐value copulas with a factor structure. We show how parameter estimates can be obtained for these copulas and apply one of these copulas to analyse a financial data set.

  15. Diagnostics for Linear Models With Functional Responses

    Xu, Hongquan; Shen, Qing

    2005-01-01

    Linear models where the response is a function and the predictors are vectors are useful in analyzing data from designed experiments and other situations with functional observations. Residual analysis and diagnostics are considered for such models. Studentized residuals are defined and their properties are studied. Chi-square quantile-quantile plots are proposed to check the assumption of Gaussian error process and outliers. Jackknife residuals and an associated test are proposed to det...

  16. Non-linear Loudspeaker Unit Modelling

    Pedersen, Bo Rohde; Agerkvist, Finn T.

    2008-01-01

    Simulations of a 6½-inch loudspeaker unit are performed and compared with a displacement measurement. The non-linear loudspeaker model is based on the major nonlinear functions and expanded with time-varying suspension behaviour and flux modulation. The results are presented with FFT plots of thr...... frequencies and different displacement levels. The model errors are discussed and analysed including a test with loudspeaker unit where the diaphragm is removed....

  17. Linear control theory for gene network modeling.

    Yong-Jun Shin

    Full Text Available Systems biology is an interdisciplinary field that aims at understanding complex interactions in cells. Here we demonstrate that linear control theory can provide valuable insight and practical tools for the characterization of complex biological networks. We provide the foundation for such analyses through the study of several case studies including cascade and parallel forms, feedback and feedforward loops. We reproduce experimental results and provide rational analysis of the observed behavior. We demonstrate that methods such as the transfer function (frequency domain and linear state-space (time domain can be used to predict reliably the properties and transient behavior of complex network topologies and point to specific design strategies for synthetic networks.

  18. Linear predictions of supercritical flow instability in two parallel channels

    Shah, M.

    2008-01-01

    A steady state linear code that can predict thermo-hydraulic instability boundaries in a two parallel channel system under supercritical conditions has been developed. Linear and non-linear solutions of the instability boundary in a two parallel channel system are also compared. The effect of gravity on the instability boundary in a two parallel channel system, by changing the orientation of the system flow from horizontal flow to vertical up-flow and vertical down-flow has been analyzed. Vertical up-flow is found to be more unstable than horizontal flow and vertical down flow is found to be the most unstable configuration. The type of instability present in each flow-orientation of a parallel channel system has been checked and the density wave oscillation type is observed in horizontal flow and vertical up-flow, while the static type of instability is observed in a vertical down-flow for the cases studied here. The parameters affecting the instability boundary, such as the heating power, inlet temperature, inlet and outlet K-factors are varied to assess their effects. This study is important for the design of future Generation IV nuclear reactors in which supercritical light water is proposed as the primary coolant. (author)

  19. Testing Parametric versus Semiparametric Modelling in Generalized Linear Models

    Härdle, W.K.; Mammen, E.; Müller, M.D.

    1996-01-01

    We consider a generalized partially linear model E(Y|X,T) = G{X'b + m(T)} where G is a known function, b is an unknown parameter vector, and m is an unknown function.The paper introduces a test statistic which allows to decide between a parametric and a semiparametric model: (i) m is linear, i.e.

  20. Modeling of Volatility with Non-linear Time Series Model

    Kim Song Yon; Kim Mun Chol

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH (Asymmetric Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) error term and its parameter estimation is studied.

  1. Thresholding projection estimators in functional linear models

    Cardot, Hervé; Johannes, Jan

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating the regression function in functional linear regression models by proposing a new type of projection estimators which combine dimension reduction and thresholding. The introduction of a threshold rule allows to get consistency under broad assumptions as well as minimax rates of convergence under additional regularity hypotheses. We also consider the particular case of Sobolev spaces generated by the trigonometric basis which permits to get easily mean squ...

  2. Decomposed Implicit Models of Piecewise - Linear Networks

    J. Brzobohaty

    1992-05-01

    Full Text Available The general matrix form of the implicit description of a piecewise-linear (PWL network and the symbolic block diagram of the corresponding circuit model are proposed. Their decomposed forms enable us to determine quite separately the existence of the individual breakpoints of the resultant PWL characteristic and their coordinates using independent network parameters. For the two-diode and three-diode cases all the attainable types of the PWL characteristic are introduced.

  3. Relating Cohesive Zone Model to Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics

    Wang, John T.

    2010-01-01

    The conditions required for a cohesive zone model (CZM) to predict a failure load of a cracked structure similar to that obtained by a linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) analysis are investigated in this paper. This study clarifies why many different phenomenological cohesive laws can produce similar fracture predictions. Analytical results for five cohesive zone models are obtained, using five different cohesive laws that have the same cohesive work rate (CWR-area under the traction-separation curve) but different maximum tractions. The effect of the maximum traction on the predicted cohesive zone length and the remote applied load at fracture is presented. Similar to the small scale yielding condition for an LEFM analysis to be valid. the cohesive zone length also needs to be much smaller than the crack length. This is a necessary condition for a CZM to obtain a fracture prediction equivalent to an LEFM result.

  4. A study on two phase flows of linear compressors for the prediction of refrigerant leakage

    Hwang, Il Sun; Lee, Young Lim; Oh, Won Sik; Park, Kyeong Bae

    2015-01-01

    Usage of linear compressors is on the rise due to their high efficiency. In this paper, leakage of a linear compressor has been studied through numerical analysis and experiments. First, nitrogen leakage for a stagnant piston with fixed cylinder pressure as well as for a moving piston with fixed cylinder pressure was analyzed to verify the validity of the two-phase flow analysis model. Next, refrigerant leakage of a linear compressor in operation was finally predicted through 3-dimensional unsteady, two phase flow CFD (Computational fluid dynamics). According to the research results, the numerical analyses for the fixed cylinder pressure models were in good agreement with the experimental results. The refrigerant leakage of the linear compressor in operation mainly occurred through the oil exit and the leakage became negligible after about 0.4s following operation where the leakage became lower than 2.0x10 -4 kg/s.

  5. From spiking neuron models to linear-nonlinear models.

    Ostojic, Srdjan; Brunel, Nicolas

    2011-01-20

    Neurons transform time-varying inputs into action potentials emitted stochastically at a time dependent rate. The mapping from current input to output firing rate is often represented with the help of phenomenological models such as the linear-nonlinear (LN) cascade, in which the output firing rate is estimated by applying to the input successively a linear temporal filter and a static non-linear transformation. These simplified models leave out the biophysical details of action potential generation. It is not a priori clear to which extent the input-output mapping of biophysically more realistic, spiking neuron models can be reduced to a simple linear-nonlinear cascade. Here we investigate this question for the leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF), exponential integrate-and-fire (EIF) and conductance-based Wang-Buzsáki models in presence of background synaptic activity. We exploit available analytic results for these models to determine the corresponding linear filter and static non-linearity in a parameter-free form. We show that the obtained functions are identical to the linear filter and static non-linearity determined using standard reverse correlation analysis. We then quantitatively compare the output of the corresponding linear-nonlinear cascade with numerical simulations of spiking neurons, systematically varying the parameters of input signal and background noise. We find that the LN cascade provides accurate estimates of the firing rates of spiking neurons in most of parameter space. For the EIF and Wang-Buzsáki models, we show that the LN cascade can be reduced to a firing rate model, the timescale of which we determine analytically. Finally we introduce an adaptive timescale rate model in which the timescale of the linear filter depends on the instantaneous firing rate. This model leads to highly accurate estimates of instantaneous firing rates.

  6. Linear Model for Optimal Distributed Generation Size Predication

    Ahmed Al Ameri

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a linear model predicting optimal size of Distributed Generation (DG that addresses the minimum power loss. This method is based fundamentally on strong coupling between active power and voltage angle as well as between reactive power and voltage magnitudes. This paper proposes simplified method to calculate the total power losses in electrical grid for different distributed generation sizes and locations. The method has been implemented and tested on several IEEE bus test systems. The results show that the proposed method is capable of predicting approximate optimal size of DG when compared with precision calculations. The method that linearizes a complex model showed a good result, which can actually reduce processing time required. The acceptable accuracy with less time and memory required can help the grid operator to assess power system integrated within large-scale distribution generation.

  7. Bayesian Subset Modeling for High-Dimensional Generalized Linear Models

    Liang, Faming

    2013-06-01

    This article presents a new prior setting for high-dimensional generalized linear models, which leads to a Bayesian subset regression (BSR) with the maximum a posteriori model approximately equivalent to the minimum extended Bayesian information criterion model. The consistency of the resulting posterior is established under mild conditions. Further, a variable screening procedure is proposed based on the marginal inclusion probability, which shares the same properties of sure screening and consistency with the existing sure independence screening (SIS) and iterative sure independence screening (ISIS) procedures. However, since the proposed procedure makes use of joint information from all predictors, it generally outperforms SIS and ISIS in real applications. This article also makes extensive comparisons of BSR with the popular penalized likelihood methods, including Lasso, elastic net, SIS, and ISIS. The numerical results indicate that BSR can generally outperform the penalized likelihood methods. The models selected by BSR tend to be sparser and, more importantly, of higher prediction ability. In addition, the performance of the penalized likelihood methods tends to deteriorate as the number of predictors increases, while this is not significant for BSR. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  8. Stochastic linear programming models, theory, and computation

    Kall, Peter

    2011-01-01

    This new edition of Stochastic Linear Programming: Models, Theory and Computation has been brought completely up to date, either dealing with or at least referring to new material on models and methods, including DEA with stochastic outputs modeled via constraints on special risk functions (generalizing chance constraints, ICC’s and CVaR constraints), material on Sharpe-ratio, and Asset Liability Management models involving CVaR in a multi-stage setup. To facilitate use as a text, exercises are included throughout the book, and web access is provided to a student version of the authors’ SLP-IOR software. Additionally, the authors have updated the Guide to Available Software, and they have included newer algorithms and modeling systems for SLP. The book is thus suitable as a text for advanced courses in stochastic optimization, and as a reference to the field. From Reviews of the First Edition: "The book presents a comprehensive study of stochastic linear optimization problems and their applications. … T...

  9. Financial Distress Prediction using Linear Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine

    Santoso, Noviyanti; Wibowo, Wahyu

    2018-03-01

    A financial difficulty is the early stages before the bankruptcy. Bankruptcies caused by the financial distress can be seen from the financial statements of the company. The ability to predict financial distress became an important research topic because it can provide early warning for the company. In addition, predicting financial distress is also beneficial for investors and creditors. This research will be made the prediction model of financial distress at industrial companies in Indonesia by comparing the performance of Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) combined with variable selection technique. The result of this research is prediction model based on hybrid Stepwise-SVM obtains better balance among fitting ability, generalization ability and model stability than the other models.

  10. Application of genetic algorithm - multiple linear regressions to predict the activity of RSK inhibitors

    Avval Zhila Mohajeri

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with developing a linear quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR model for predicting the RSK inhibition activity of some new compounds. A dataset consisting of 62 pyrazino [1,2-α] indole, diazepino [1,2-α] indole, and imidazole derivatives with known inhibitory activities was used. Multiple linear regressions (MLR technique combined with the stepwise (SW and the genetic algorithm (GA methods as variable selection tools was employed. For more checking stability, robustness and predictability of the proposed models, internal and external validation techniques were used. Comparison of the results obtained, indicate that the GA-MLR model is superior to the SW-MLR model and that it isapplicable for designing novel RSK inhibitors.

  11. Modelling and measurement of a moving magnet linear compressor performance

    Liang, Kun; Stone, Richard; Davies, Gareth; Dadd, Mike; Bailey, Paul

    2014-01-01

    A novel moving magnet linear compressor with clearance seals and flexure bearings has been designed and constructed. It is suitable for a refrigeration system with a compact heat exchanger, such as would be needed for CPU cooling. The performance of the compressor has been experimentally evaluated with nitrogen and a mathematical model has been developed to evaluate the performance of the linear compressor. The results from the compressor model and the measurements have been compared in terms of cylinder pressure, the ‘P–V’ loop, stroke, mass flow rate and shaft power. The cylinder pressure was not measured directly but was derived from the compressor dynamics and the motor magnetic force characteristics. The comparisons indicate that the compressor model is well validated and can be used to study the performance of this type of compressor, to help with design optimization and the identification of key parameters affecting the system transients. The electrical and thermodynamic losses were also investigated, particularly for the design point (stroke of 13 mm and pressure ratio of 3.0), since a full understanding of these can lead to an increase in compressor efficiency. - Highlights: • Model predictions of the performance of a novel moving magnet linear compressor. • Prototype linear compressor performance measurements using nitrogen. • Reconstruction of P–V loops using a model of the dynamics and electromagnetics. • Close agreement between the model and measurements for the P–V loops. • The design point motor efficiency was 74%, with potential improvements identified

  12. Robust Comparison of the Linear Model Structures in Self-tuning Adaptive Control

    Zhou, Jianjun; Conrad, Finn

    1989-01-01

    The Generalized Predictive Controller (GPC) is extended to the systems with a generalized linear model structure which contains a number of choices of linear model structures. The Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPEM) is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the linear model structures...... to constitute a GPC self-tuner. Different linear model structures commonly used are compared and evaluated by applying them to the extended GPC self-tuner as well as to the special cases of the GPC, the GMV and MV self-tuners. The simulation results show how the choice of model structure affects the input......-output behaviour of self-tuning controllers....

  13. Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models.

    Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Casey, Fergal P; Waterfall, Joshua J; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

    2007-12-01

    Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated.

  14. Linear accelerator modeling: development and application

    Jameson, R.A.; Jule, W.D.

    1977-01-01

    Most of the parameters of a modern linear accelerator can be selected by simulating the desired machine characteristics in a computer code and observing how the parameters affect the beam dynamics. The code PARMILA is used at LAMPF for the low-energy portion of linacs. Collections of particles can be traced with a free choice of input distributions in six-dimensional phase space. Random errors are often included in order to study the tolerances which should be imposed during manufacture or in operation. An outline is given of the modifications made to the model, the results of experiments which indicate the validity of the model, and the use of the model to optimize the longitudinal tuning of the Alvarez linac

  15. Running vacuum cosmological models: linear scalar perturbations

    Perico, E.L.D. [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão 1371, CEP 05508-090, São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Tamayo, D.A., E-mail: elduartep@usp.br, E-mail: tamayo@if.usp.br [Departamento de Astronomia, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão 1226, CEP 05508-900, São Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2017-08-01

    In cosmology, phenomenologically motivated expressions for running vacuum are commonly parameterized as linear functions typically denoted by Λ( H {sup 2}) or Λ( R ). Such models assume an equation of state for the vacuum given by P-bar {sub Λ} = - ρ-bar {sub Λ}, relating its background pressure P-bar {sub Λ} with its mean energy density ρ-bar {sub Λ} ≡ Λ/8π G . This equation of state suggests that the vacuum dynamics is due to an interaction with the matter content of the universe. Most of the approaches studying the observational impact of these models only consider the interaction between the vacuum and the transient dominant matter component of the universe. We extend such models by assuming that the running vacuum is the sum of independent contributions, namely ρ-bar {sub Λ} = Σ {sub i} ρ-bar {sub Λ} {sub i} . Each Λ i vacuum component is associated and interacting with one of the i matter components in both the background and perturbation levels. We derive the evolution equations for the linear scalar vacuum and matter perturbations in those two scenarios, and identify the running vacuum imprints on the cosmic microwave background anisotropies as well as on the matter power spectrum. In the Λ( H {sup 2}) scenario the vacuum is coupled with every matter component, whereas the Λ( R ) description only leads to a coupling between vacuum and non-relativistic matter, producing different effects on the matter power spectrum.

  16. Linear Parametric Model Checking of Timed Automata

    Hune, Tohmas Seidelin; Romijn, Judi; Stoelinga, Mariëlle

    2001-01-01

    We present an extension of the model checker Uppaal capable of synthesize linear parameter constraints for the correctness of parametric timed automata. The symbolic representation of the (parametric) state-space is shown to be correct. A second contribution of this paper is the identication...... of a subclass of parametric timed automata (L/U automata), for which the emptiness problem is decidable, contrary to the full class where it is know to be undecidable. Also we present a number of lemmas enabling the verication eort to be reduced for L/U automata in some cases. We illustrate our approach...

  17. Drug-Target Interaction Prediction through Label Propagation with Linear Neighborhood Information.

    Zhang, Wen; Chen, Yanlin; Li, Dingfang

    2017-11-25

    Interactions between drugs and target proteins provide important information for the drug discovery. Currently, experiments identified only a small number of drug-target interactions. Therefore, the development of computational methods for drug-target interaction prediction is an urgent task of theoretical interest and practical significance. In this paper, we propose a label propagation method with linear neighborhood information (LPLNI) for predicting unobserved drug-target interactions. Firstly, we calculate drug-drug linear neighborhood similarity in the feature spaces, by considering how to reconstruct data points from neighbors. Then, we take similarities as the manifold of drugs, and assume the manifold unchanged in the interaction space. At last, we predict unobserved interactions between known drugs and targets by using drug-drug linear neighborhood similarity and known drug-target interactions. The experiments show that LPLNI can utilize only known drug-target interactions to make high-accuracy predictions on four benchmark datasets. Furthermore, we consider incorporating chemical structures into LPLNI models. Experimental results demonstrate that the model with integrated information (LPLNI-II) can produce improved performances, better than other state-of-the-art methods. The known drug-target interactions are an important information source for computational predictions. The usefulness of the proposed method is demonstrated by cross validation and the case study.

  18. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    2017-10-01

    CR cultural resource CRM cultural resource management CRPM Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling DoD Department of Defense ESTCP Environmental...resource management ( CRM ) legal obligations under NEPA and the NHPA, military installations need to demonstrate that CRM decisions are based on objective...maxim “one size does not fit all,” and demonstrate that DoD installations have many different CRM needs that can and should be met through a variety

  19. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  20. Aspects of general linear modelling of migration.

    Congdon, P

    1992-01-01

    "This paper investigates the application of general linear modelling principles to analysing migration flows between areas. Particular attention is paid to specifying the form of the regression and error components, and the nature of departures from Poisson randomness. Extensions to take account of spatial and temporal correlation are discussed as well as constrained estimation. The issue of specification bears on the testing of migration theories, and assessing the role migration plays in job and housing markets: the direction and significance of the effects of economic variates on migration depends on the specification of the statistical model. The application is in the context of migration in London and South East England in the 1970s and 1980s." excerpt

  1. Model Selection with the Linear Mixed Model for Longitudinal Data

    Ryoo, Ji Hoon

    2011-01-01

    Model building or model selection with linear mixed models (LMMs) is complicated by the presence of both fixed effects and random effects. The fixed effects structure and random effects structure are codependent, so selection of one influences the other. Most presentations of LMM in psychology and education are based on a multilevel or…

  2. Numerical modelling in non linear fracture mechanics

    Viggo Tvergaard

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Some numerical studies of crack propagation are based on using constitutive models that accountfor damage evolution in the material. When a critical damage value has been reached in a materialpoint, it is natural to assume that this point has no more carrying capacity, as is done numerically in the elementvanish technique. In the present review this procedure is illustrated for micromechanically based materialmodels, such as a ductile failure model that accounts for the nucleation and growth of voids to coalescence, and a model for intergranular creep failure with diffusive growth of grain boundary cavities leading to micro-crack formation. The procedure is also illustrated for low cycle fatigue, based on continuum damage mechanics. In addition, the possibility of crack growth predictions for elastic-plastic solids using cohesive zone models to represent the fracture process is discussed.

  3. Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

    Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

  4. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  5. Network Traffic Monitoring Using Poisson Dynamic Linear Models

    Merl, D. M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2011-05-09

    In this article, we discuss an approach for network forensics using a class of nonstationary Poisson processes with embedded dynamic linear models. As a modeling strategy, the Poisson DLM (PoDLM) provides a very flexible framework for specifying structured effects that may influence the evolution of the underlying Poisson rate parameter, including diurnal and weekly usage patterns. We develop a novel particle learning algorithm for online smoothing and prediction for the PoDLM, and demonstrate the suitability of the approach to real-time deployment settings via a new application to computer network traffic monitoring.

  6. Modelling of Asphalt Concrete Stiffness in the Linear Viscoelastic Region

    Mazurek, Grzegorz; Iwański, Marek

    2017-10-01

    Stiffness modulus is a fundamental parameter used in the modelling of the viscoelastic behaviour of bituminous mixtures. On the basis of the master curve in the linear viscoelasticity range, the mechanical properties of asphalt concrete at different loading times and temperatures can be predicted. This paper discusses the construction of master curves under rheological mathematical models i.e. the sigmoidal function model (MEPDG), the fractional model, and Bahia and co-workers’ model in comparison to the results from mechanistic rheological models i.e. the generalized Huet-Sayegh model, the generalized Maxwell model and the Burgers model. For the purposes of this analysis, the reference asphalt concrete mix (denoted as AC16W) intended for the binder coarse layer and for traffic category KR3 (5×105 controlled strain mode. The fixed strain level was set at 25με to guarantee that the stiffness modulus of the asphalt concrete would be tested in a linear viscoelasticity range. The master curve was formed using the time-temperature superposition principle (TTSP). The stiffness modulus of asphalt concrete was determined at temperatures 10°C, 20°C and 40°C and at loading times (frequency) of 0.1, 0.3, 1, 3, 10, 20 Hz. The model parameters were fitted to the rheological models using the original programs based on the nonlinear least squares sum method. All the rheological models under analysis were found to be capable of predicting changes in the stiffness modulus of the reference asphalt concrete to satisfactory accuracy. In the cases of the fractional model and the generalized Maxwell model, their accuracy depends on a number of elements in series. The best fit was registered for Bahia and co-workers model, generalized Maxwell model and fractional model. As for predicting the phase angle parameter, the largest discrepancies between experimental and modelled results were obtained using the fractional model. Except the Burgers model, the model matching quality was

  7. Modeling patterns in data using linear and related models

    Engelhardt, M.E.

    1996-06-01

    This report considers the use of linear models for analyzing data related to reliability and safety issues of the type usually associated with nuclear power plants. The report discusses some of the general results of linear regression analysis, such as the model assumptions and properties of the estimators of the parameters. The results are motivated with examples of operational data. Results about the important case of a linear regression model with one covariate are covered in detail. This case includes analysis of time trends. The analysis is applied with two different sets of time trend data. Diagnostic procedures and tests for the adequacy of the model are discussed. Some related methods such as weighted regression and nonlinear models are also considered. A discussion of the general linear model is also included. Appendix A gives some basic SAS programs and outputs for some of the analyses discussed in the body of the report. Appendix B is a review of some of the matrix theoretic results which are useful in the development of linear models

  8. Electron Model of Linear-Field FFAG

    Koscielniak, Shane R

    2005-01-01

    A fixed-field alternating-gradient accelerator (FFAG) that employs only linear-field elements ushers in a new regime in accelerator design and dynamics. The linear-field machine has the ability to compact an unprecedented range in momenta within a small component aperture. With a tune variation which results from the natural chromaticity, the beam crosses many strong, uncorrec-table, betatron resonances during acceleration. Further, relativistic particles in this machine exhibit a quasi-parabolic time-of-flight that cannot be addressed with a fixed-frequency rf system. This leads to a new concept of bucketless acceleration within a rotation manifold. With a large energy jump per cell, there is possibly strong synchro-betatron coupling. A few-MeV electron model has been proposed to demonstrate the feasibility of these untested acceleration features and to investigate them at length under a wide range of operating conditions. This paper presents a lattice optimized for a 1.3 GHz rf, initial technology choices f...

  9. Linear models in the mathematics of uncertainty

    Mordeson, John N; Clark, Terry D; Pham, Alex; Redmond, Michael A

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this book is to present new mathematical techniques for modeling global issues. These mathematical techniques are used to determine linear equations between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables in cases where standard techniques such as linear regression are not suitable. In this book, we examine cases where the number of data points is small (effects of nuclear warfare), where the experiment is not repeatable (the breakup of the former Soviet Union), and where the data is derived from expert opinion (how conservative is a political party). In all these cases the data  is difficult to measure and an assumption of randomness and/or statistical validity is questionable.  We apply our methods to real world issues in international relations such as  nuclear deterrence, smart power, and cooperative threat reduction. We next apply our methods to issues in comparative politics such as successful democratization, quality of life, economic freedom, political stability, and fail...

  10. A Linear Viscoelastic Model Calibration of Sylgard 184.

    Long, Kevin Nicholas; Brown, Judith Alice

    2017-04-01

    We calibrate a linear thermoviscoelastic model for solid Sylgard 184 (90-10 formulation), a lightly cross-linked, highly flexible isotropic elastomer for use both in Sierra / Solid Mechanics via the Universal Polymer Model as well as in Sierra / Structural Dynamics (Salinas) for use as an isotropic viscoelastic material. Material inputs for the calibration in both codes are provided. The frequency domain master curve of oscillatory shear was obtained from a report from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). However, because the form of that data is different from the constitutive models in Sierra, we also present the mapping of the LANL data onto Sandia’s constitutive models. Finally, blind predictions of cyclic tension and compression out to moderate strains of 40 and 20% respectively are compared with Sandia’s legacy cure schedule material. Although the strain rate of the data is unknown, the linear thermoviscoelastic model accurately predicts the experiments out to moderate strains for the slower strain rates, which is consistent with the expectation that quasistatic test procedures were likely followed. This good agreement comes despite the different cure schedules between the Sandia and LANL data.

  11. Global numerical modeling of magnetized plasma in a linear device

    Magnussen, Michael Løiten

    Understanding the turbulent transport in the plasma-edge in fusion devices is of utmost importance in order to make precise predictions for future fusion devices. The plasma turbulence observed in linear devices shares many important features with the turbulence observed in the edge of fusion dev...... with simulations performed at different ionization levels, using a simple model for plasma interaction with neutrals. It is found that the steady state and the saturated state of the system bifurcates when the neutral interaction dominates the electron-ion collisions.......Understanding the turbulent transport in the plasma-edge in fusion devices is of utmost importance in order to make precise predictions for future fusion devices. The plasma turbulence observed in linear devices shares many important features with the turbulence observed in the edge of fusion...... devices, and are easier to diagnose due to lower temperatures and a better access to the plasma. In order to gain greater insight into this complex turbulent behavior, numerical simulations of plasma in a linear device are performed in this thesis. Here, a three-dimensional drift-fluid model is derived...

  12. Nonlinear price impact from linear models

    Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2017-12-01

    The impact of trades on asset prices is a crucial aspect of market dynamics for academics, regulators, and practitioners alike. Recently, universal and highly nonlinear master curves were observed for price impacts aggregated on all intra-day scales (Patzelt and Bouchaud 2017 arXiv:1706.04163). Here we investigate how well these curves, their scaling, and the underlying return dynamics are captured by linear ‘propagator’ models. We find that the classification of trades as price-changing versus non-price-changing can explain the price impact nonlinearities and short-term return dynamics to a very high degree. The explanatory power provided by the change indicator in addition to the order sign history increases with increasing tick size. To obtain these results, several long-standing technical issues for model calibration and testing are addressed. We present new spectral estimators for two- and three-point cross-correlations, removing the need for previously used approximations. We also show when calibration is unbiased and how to accurately reveal previously overlooked biases. Therefore, our results contribute significantly to understanding both recent empirical results and the properties of a popular class of impact models.

  13. Linear Equating for the NEAT Design: Parameter Substitution Models and Chained Linear Relationship Models

    Kane, Michael T.; Mroch, Andrew A.; Suh, Youngsuk; Ripkey, Douglas R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes five linear equating models for the "nonequivalent groups with anchor test" (NEAT) design with internal anchors (i.e., the anchor test is part of the full test). The analysis employs a two-dimensional framework. The first dimension contrasts two general approaches to developing the equating relationship. Under a "parameter…

  14. Computationally Efficient Amplitude Modulated Sinusoidal Audio Coding using Frequency-Domain Linear Prediction

    Christensen, M. G.; Jensen, Søren Holdt

    2006-01-01

    A method for amplitude modulated sinusoidal audio coding is presented that has low complexity and low delay. This is based on a subband processing system, where, in each subband, the signal is modeled as an amplitude modulated sum of sinusoids. The envelopes are estimated using frequency......-domain linear prediction and the prediction coefficients are quantized. As a proof of concept, we evaluate different configurations in a subjective listening test, and this shows that the proposed method offers significant improvements in sinusoidal coding. Furthermore, the properties of the frequency...

  15. Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

    Halvgaard, Rasmus

    pumps, heat tanks, electrical vehicle battery charging/discharging, wind farms, power plants). 2.Embed forecasting methodologies for the weather (e.g. temperature, solar radiation), the electricity consumption, and the electricity price in a predictive control system. 3.Develop optimization algorithms....... Chapter 3 introduces Model Predictive Control (MPC) including state estimation, filtering and prediction for linear models. Chapter 4 simulates the models from Chapter 2 with the certainty equivalent MPC from Chapter 3. An economic MPC minimizes the costs of consumption based on real electricity prices...... that determined the flexibility of the units. A predictive control system easily handles constraints, e.g. limitations in power consumption, and predicts the future behavior of a unit by integrating predictions of electricity prices, consumption, and weather variables. The simulations demonstrate the expected...

  16. Neutron stars in non-linear coupling models

    Taurines, Andre R.; Vasconcellos, Cesar A.Z.; Malheiro, Manuel; Chiapparini, Marcelo

    2001-01-01

    We present a class of relativistic models for nuclear matter and neutron stars which exhibits a parameterization, through mathematical constants, of the non-linear meson-baryon couplings. For appropriate choices of the parameters, it recovers current QHD models found in the literature: Walecka, ZM and ZM3 models. We have found that the ZM3 model predicts a very small maximum neutron star mass, ∼ 0.72M s un. A strong similarity between the results of ZM-like models and those with exponential couplings is noted. Finally, we discuss the very intense scalar condensates found in the interior of neutron stars which may lead to negative effective masses. (author)

  17. Neutron stars in non-linear coupling models

    Taurines, Andre R.; Vasconcellos, Cesar A.Z. [Rio Grande do Sul Univ., Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil); Malheiro, Manuel [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Chiapparini, Marcelo [Universidade do Estado, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2001-07-01

    We present a class of relativistic models for nuclear matter and neutron stars which exhibits a parameterization, through mathematical constants, of the non-linear meson-baryon couplings. For appropriate choices of the parameters, it recovers current QHD models found in the literature: Walecka, ZM and ZM3 models. We have found that the ZM3 model predicts a very small maximum neutron star mass, {approx} 0.72M{sub s}un. A strong similarity between the results of ZM-like models and those with exponential couplings is noted. Finally, we discuss the very intense scalar condensates found in the interior of neutron stars which may lead to negative effective masses. (author)

  18. Piecewise Linear-Linear Latent Growth Mixture Models with Unknown Knots

    Kohli, Nidhi; Harring, Jeffrey R.; Hancock, Gregory R.

    2013-01-01

    Latent growth curve models with piecewise functions are flexible and useful analytic models for investigating individual behaviors that exhibit distinct phases of development in observed variables. As an extension of this framework, this study considers a piecewise linear-linear latent growth mixture model (LGMM) for describing segmented change of…

  19. From linear to generalized linear mixed models: A case study in repeated measures

    Compared to traditional linear mixed models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) can offer better correspondence between response variables and explanatory models, yielding more efficient estimates and tests in the analysis of data from designed experiments. Using proportion data from a designed...

  20. Predicting haemodynamic networks using electrophysiology: The role of non-linear and cross-frequency interactions

    Tewarie, P.; Bright, M.G.; Hillebrand, A.; Robson, S.E.; Gascoyne, L.E.; Morris, P.G.; Meier, J.; Van Mieghem, P.; Brookes, M.J.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the electrophysiological basis of resting state networks (RSNs) in the human brain is a critical step towards elucidating how inter-areal connectivity supports healthy brain function. In recent years, the relationship between RSNs (typically measured using haemodynamic signals) and electrophysiology has been explored using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and magnetoencephalography (MEG). Significant progress has been made, with similar spatial structure observable in both modalities. However, there is a pressing need to understand this relationship beyond simple visual similarity of RSN patterns. Here, we introduce a mathematical model to predict fMRI-based RSNs using MEG. Our unique model, based upon a multivariate Taylor series, incorporates both phase and amplitude based MEG connectivity metrics, as well as linear and non-linear interactions within and between neural oscillations measured in multiple frequency bands. We show that including non-linear interactions, multiple frequency bands and cross-frequency terms significantly improves fMRI network prediction. This shows that fMRI connectivity is not only the result of direct electrophysiological connections, but is also driven by the overlap of connectivity profiles between separate regions. Our results indicate that a complete understanding of the electrophysiological basis of RSNs goes beyond simple frequency-specific analysis, and further exploration of non-linear and cross-frequency interactions will shed new light on distributed network connectivity, and its perturbation in pathology. PMID:26827811

  1. Prediction of Complex Human Traits Using the Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor

    de los Campos, Gustavo; Vazquez, Ana I; Fernando, Rohan

    2013-01-01

    Despite important advances from Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS), for most complex human traits and diseases, a sizable proportion of genetic variance remains unexplained and prediction accuracy (PA) is usually low. Evidence suggests that PA can be improved using Whole-Genome Regression (WGR......) models where phenotypes are regressed on hundreds of thousands of variants simultaneously. The Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction G-BLUP, a ridge-regression type method) is a commonly used WGR method and has shown good predictive performance when applied to plant and animal breeding populations....... However, breeding and human populations differ greatly in a number of factors that can affect the predictive performance of G-BLUP. Using theory, simulations, and real data analysis, we study the erformance of G-BLUP when applied to data from related and unrelated human subjects. Under perfect linkage...

  2. Multispectral code excited linear prediction coding and its application in magnetic resonance images.

    Hu, J H; Wang, Y; Cahill, P T

    1997-01-01

    This paper reports a multispectral code excited linear prediction (MCELP) method for the compression of multispectral images. Different linear prediction models and adaptation schemes have been compared. The method that uses a forward adaptive autoregressive (AR) model has been proven to achieve a good compromise between performance, complexity, and robustness. This approach is referred to as the MFCELP method. Given a set of multispectral images, the linear predictive coefficients are updated over nonoverlapping three-dimensional (3-D) macroblocks. Each macroblock is further divided into several 3-D micro-blocks, and the best excitation signal for each microblock is determined through an analysis-by-synthesis procedure. The MFCELP method has been applied to multispectral magnetic resonance (MR) images. To satisfy the high quality requirement for medical images, the error between the original image set and the synthesized one is further specified using a vector quantizer. This method has been applied to images from 26 clinical MR neuro studies (20 slices/study, three spectral bands/slice, 256x256 pixels/band, 12 b/pixel). The MFCELP method provides a significant visual improvement over the discrete cosine transform (DCT) based Joint Photographers Expert Group (JPEG) method, the wavelet transform based embedded zero-tree wavelet (EZW) coding method, and the vector tree (VT) coding method, as well as the multispectral segmented autoregressive moving average (MSARMA) method we developed previously.

  3. Evaluating the double Poisson generalized linear model.

    Zou, Yaotian; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Lord, Dominique

    2013-10-01

    The objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the applicability of the double Poisson (DP) generalized linear model (GLM) for analyzing motor vehicle crash data characterized by over- and under-dispersion and (2) compare the performance of the DP GLM with the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) GLM in terms of goodness-of-fit and theoretical soundness. The DP distribution has seldom been investigated and applied since its first introduction two decades ago. The hurdle for applying the DP is related to its normalizing constant (or multiplicative constant) which is not available in closed form. This study proposed a new method to approximate the normalizing constant of the DP with high accuracy and reliability. The DP GLM and COM-Poisson GLM were developed using two observed over-dispersed datasets and one observed under-dispersed dataset. The modeling results indicate that the DP GLM with its normalizing constant approximated by the new method can handle crash data characterized by over- and under-dispersion. Its performance is comparable to the COM-Poisson GLM in terms of goodness-of-fit (GOF), although COM-Poisson GLM provides a slightly better fit. For the over-dispersed data, the DP GLM performs similar to the NB GLM. Considering the fact that the DP GLM can be easily estimated with inexpensive computation and that it is simpler to interpret coefficients, it offers a flexible and efficient alternative for researchers to model count data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Model predictive Controller for Mobile Robot

    Alireza Rezaee

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for control of a P2AT mobile robot. MPC refers to a group of controllers that employ a distinctly identical model of process to predict its future behavior over an extended prediction horizon. The design of a MPC is formulated as an optimal control problem. Then this problem is considered as linear quadratic equation (LQR) and is solved by making use of Ricatti equation. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method this controller is...

  5. Petri Nets as Models of Linear Logic

    Engberg, Uffe Henrik; Winskel, Glynn

    1990-01-01

    The chief purpose of this paper is to appraise the feasibility of Girad's linear logic as a specification language for parallel processes. To this end we propose an interpretation of linear logic in Petri nets, with respect to which we investigate the expressive power of the logic...

  6. SOME STATISTICAL ISSUES RELATED TO MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODELING OF BEACH BACTERIA CONCENTRATIONS

    As a fast and effective technique, the multiple linear regression (MLR) method has been widely used in modeling and prediction of beach bacteria concentrations. Among previous works on this subject, however, several issues were insufficiently or inconsistently addressed. Those is...

  7. Modified linear predictive coding approach for moving target tracking by Doppler radar

    Ding, Yipeng; Lin, Xiaoyi; Sun, Ke-Hui; Xu, Xue-Mei; Liu, Xi-Yao

    2016-07-01

    Doppler radar is a cost-effective tool for moving target tracking, which can support a large range of civilian and military applications. A modified linear predictive coding (LPC) approach is proposed to increase the target localization accuracy of the Doppler radar. Based on the time-frequency analysis of the received echo, the proposed approach first real-time estimates the noise statistical parameters and constructs an adaptive filter to intelligently suppress the noise interference. Then, a linear predictive model is applied to extend the available data, which can help improve the resolution of the target localization result. Compared with the traditional LPC method, which empirically decides the extension data length, the proposed approach develops an error array to evaluate the prediction accuracy and thus, adjust the optimum extension data length intelligently. Finally, the prediction error array is superimposed with the predictor output to correct the prediction error. A series of experiments are conducted to illustrate the validity and performance of the proposed techniques.

  8. Linear approximation model network and its formation via ...

    To overcome the deficiency of `local model network' (LMN) techniques, an alternative `linear approximation model' (LAM) network approach is proposed. Such a network models a nonlinear or practical system with multiple linear models fitted along operating trajectories, where individual models are simply networked ...

  9. Non-linear multivariable predictive control of an alcoholic fermentation process using functional link networks

    Luiz Augusto da Cruz Meleiro

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work a MIMO non-linear predictive controller was developed for an extractive alcoholic fermentation process. The internal model of the controller was represented by two MISO Functional Link Networks (FLNs, identified using simulated data generated from a deterministic mathematical model whose kinetic parameters were determined experimentally. The FLN structure presents as advantages fast training and guaranteed convergence, since the estimation of the weights is a linear optimization problem. Besides, the elimination of non-significant weights generates parsimonious models, which allows for fast execution in an MPC-based algorithm. The proposed algorithm showed good potential in identification and control of non-linear processes.Neste trabalho um controlador preditivo não linear multivariável foi desenvolvido para um processo de fermentação alcoólica extrativa. O modelo interno do controlador foi representado por duas redes do tipo Functional Link (FLN, identificadas usando dados de simulação gerados a partir de um modelo validado experimentalmente. A estrutura FLN apresenta como vantagem o treinamento rápido e convergência garantida, já que a estimação dos seus pesos é um problema de otimização linear. Além disso, a eliminação de pesos não significativos gera modelos parsimoniosos, o que permite a rápida execução em algoritmos de controle preditivo baseado em modelo. Os resultados mostram que o algoritmo proposto tem grande potencial para identificação e controle de processos não lineares.

  10. Predictive IP controller for robust position control of linear servo system.

    Lu, Shaowu; Zhou, Fengxing; Ma, Yajie; Tang, Xiaoqi

    2016-07-01

    Position control is a typical application of linear servo system. In this paper, to reduce the system overshoot, an integral plus proportional (IP) controller is used in the position control implementation. To further improve the control performance, a gain-tuning IP controller based on a generalized predictive control (GPC) law is proposed. Firstly, to represent the dynamics of the position loop, a second-order linear model is used and its model parameters are estimated on-line by using a recursive least squares method. Secondly, based on the GPC law, an optimal control sequence is obtained by using receding horizon, then directly supplies the IP controller with the corresponding control parameters in the real operations. Finally, simulation and experimental results are presented to show the efficiency of proposed scheme. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Game Theory and its Relationship with Linear Programming Models ...

    Game Theory and its Relationship with Linear Programming Models. ... This paper shows that game theory and linear programming problem are closely related subjects since any computing method devised for ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  12. Confidence scores for prediction models

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

  13. The log-linear return approximation, bubbles, and predictability

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard; Tanggaard, Carsten

    We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividendprice ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles which have explosive conditional expec...

  14. The Log-Linear Return Approximation, Bubbles, and Predictability

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard; Tanggaard, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividend-price ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles which have explosive conditional expe...

  15. Linear genetic programming application for successive-station monthly streamflow prediction

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan; Yerdelen, Cahit

    2014-09-01

    In recent decades, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been pronounced as a branch of computer science to model wide range of hydrological phenomena. A number of researches have been still comparing these techniques in order to find more effective approaches in terms of accuracy and applicability. In this study, we examined the ability of linear genetic programming (LGP) technique to model successive-station monthly streamflow process, as an applied alternative for streamflow prediction. A comparative efficiency study between LGP and three different artificial neural network algorithms, namely feed forward back propagation (FFBP), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and radial basis function (RBF), has also been presented in this study. For this aim, firstly, we put forward six different successive-station monthly streamflow prediction scenarios subjected to training by LGP and FFBP using the field data recorded at two gauging stations on Çoruh River, Turkey. Based on Nash-Sutcliffe and root mean squared error measures, we then compared the efficiency of these techniques and selected the best prediction scenario. Eventually, GRNN and RBF algorithms were utilized to restructure the selected scenario and to compare with corresponding FFBP and LGP. Our results indicated the promising role of LGP for successive-station monthly streamflow prediction providing more accurate results than those of all the ANN algorithms. We found an explicit LGP-based expression evolved by only the basic arithmetic functions as the best prediction model for the river, which uses the records of the both target and upstream stations.

  16. Prediction of Depression in Cancer Patients With Different Classification Criteria, Linear Discriminant Analysis versus Logistic Regression.

    Shayan, Zahra; Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Naser; Shayan, Leila; Naseri, Parisa

    2015-11-03

    Logistic regression (LR) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) are two popular statistical models for prediction of group membership. Although they are very similar, the LDA makes more assumptions about the data. When categorical and continuous variables used simultaneously, the optimal choice between the two models is questionable. In most studies, classification error (CE) is used to discriminate between subjects in several groups, but this index is not suitable to predict the accuracy of the outcome. The present study compared LR and LDA models using classification indices. This cross-sectional study selected 243 cancer patients. Sample sets of different sizes (n = 50, 100, 150, 200, 220) were randomly selected and the CE, B, and Q classification indices were calculated by the LR and LDA models. CE revealed the a lack of superiority for one model over the other, but the results showed that LR performed better than LDA for the B and Q indices in all situations. No significant effect for sample size on CE was noted for selection of an optimal model. Assessment of the accuracy of prediction of real data indicated that the B and Q indices are appropriate for selection of an optimal model. The results of this study showed that LR performs better in some cases and LDA in others when based on CE. The CE index is not appropriate for classification, although the B and Q indices performed better and offered more efficient criteria for comparison and discrimination between groups.

  17. A Note on the Identifiability of Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    Labouriau, Rodrigo

    2014-01-01

    I present here a simple proof that, under general regularity conditions, the standard parametrization of generalized linear mixed model is identifiable. The proof is based on the assumptions of generalized linear mixed models on the first and second order moments and some general mild regularity...... conditions, and, therefore, is extensible to quasi-likelihood based generalized linear models. In particular, binomial and Poisson mixed models with dispersion parameter are identifiable when equipped with the standard parametrization...

  18. Linear theory for filtering nonlinear multiscale systems with model error.

    Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

    2014-07-08

    In this paper, we study filtering of multiscale dynamical systems with model error arising from limitations in resolving the smaller scale processes. In particular, the analysis assumes the availability of continuous-time noisy observations of all components of the slow variables. Mathematically, this paper presents new results on higher order asymptotic expansion of the first two moments of a conditional measure. In particular, we are interested in the application of filtering multiscale problems in which the conditional distribution is defined over the slow variables, given noisy observation of the slow variables alone. From the mathematical analysis, we learn that for a continuous time linear model with Gaussian noise, there exists a unique choice of parameters in a linear reduced model for the slow variables which gives the optimal filtering when only the slow variables are observed. Moreover, these parameters simultaneously give the optimal equilibrium statistical estimates of the underlying system, and as a consequence they can be estimated offline from the equilibrium statistics of the true signal. By examining a nonlinear test model, we show that the linear theory extends in this non-Gaussian, nonlinear configuration as long as we know the optimal stochastic parametrization and the correct observation model. However, when the stochastic parametrization model is inappropriate, parameters chosen for good filter performance may give poor equilibrium statistical estimates and vice versa; this finding is based on analytical and numerical results on our nonlinear test model and the two-layer Lorenz-96 model. Finally, even when the correct stochastic ansatz is given, it is imperative to estimate the parameters simultaneously and to account for the nonlinear feedback of the stochastic parameters into the reduced filter estimates. In numerical experiments on the two-layer Lorenz-96 model, we find that the parameters estimated online , as part of a filtering

  19. Bayesian techniques for fatigue life prediction and for inference in linear time dependent PDEs

    Scavino, Marco

    2016-01-08

    In this talk we introduce first the main characteristics of a systematic statistical approach to model calibration, model selection and model ranking when stress-life data are drawn from a collection of records of fatigue experiments. Focusing on Bayesian prediction assessment, we consider fatigue-limit models and random fatigue-limit models under different a priori assumptions. In the second part of the talk, we present a hierarchical Bayesian technique for the inference of the coefficients of time dependent linear PDEs, under the assumption that noisy measurements are available in both the interior of a domain of interest and from boundary conditions. We present a computational technique based on the marginalization of the contribution of the boundary parameters and apply it to inverse heat conduction problems.

  20. Enhancement of Visual Field Predictions with Pointwise Exponential Regression (PER) and Pointwise Linear Regression (PLR).

    Morales, Esteban; de Leon, John Mark S; Abdollahi, Niloufar; Yu, Fei; Nouri-Mahdavi, Kouros; Caprioli, Joseph

    2016-03-01

    The study was conducted to evaluate threshold smoothing algorithms to enhance prediction of the rates of visual field (VF) worsening in glaucoma. We studied 798 patients with primary open-angle glaucoma and 6 or more years of follow-up who underwent 8 or more VF examinations. Thresholds at each VF location for the first 4 years or first half of the follow-up time (whichever was greater) were smoothed with clusters defined by the nearest neighbor (NN), Garway-Heath, Glaucoma Hemifield Test (GHT), and weighting by the correlation of rates at all other VF locations. Thresholds were regressed with a pointwise exponential regression (PER) model and a pointwise linear regression (PLR) model. Smaller root mean square error (RMSE) values of the differences between the observed and the predicted thresholds at last two follow-ups indicated better model predictions. The mean (SD) follow-up times for the smoothing and prediction phase were 5.3 (1.5) and 10.5 (3.9) years. The mean RMSE values for the PER and PLR models were unsmoothed data, 6.09 and 6.55; NN, 3.40 and 3.42; Garway-Heath, 3.47 and 3.48; GHT, 3.57 and 3.74; and correlation of rates, 3.59 and 3.64. Smoothed VF data predicted better than unsmoothed data. Nearest neighbor provided the best predictions; PER also predicted consistently more accurately than PLR. Smoothing algorithms should be used when forecasting VF results with PER or PLR. The application of smoothing algorithms on VF data can improve forecasting in VF points to assist in treatment decisions.

  1. Non-Linear Slosh Damping Model Development and Validation

    Yang, H. Q.; West, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Propellant tank slosh dynamics are typically represented by a mechanical model of spring mass damper. This mechanical model is then included in the equation of motion of the entire vehicle for Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) analysis. For a partially-filled smooth wall propellant tank, the critical damping based on classical empirical correlation is as low as 0.05%. Due to this low value of damping, propellant slosh is potential sources of disturbance critical to the stability of launch and space vehicles. It is postulated that the commonly quoted slosh damping is valid only under the linear regime where the slosh amplitude is small. With the increase of slosh amplitude, the critical damping value should also increase. If this nonlinearity can be verified and validated, the slosh stability margin can be significantly improved, and the level of conservatism maintained in the GN&C analysis can be lessened. The purpose of this study is to explore and to quantify the dependence of slosh damping with slosh amplitude. Accurately predicting the extremely low damping value of a smooth wall tank is very challenging for any Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool. One must resolve thin boundary layers near the wall and limit numerical damping to minimum. This computational study demonstrates that with proper grid resolution, CFD can indeed accurately predict the low damping physics from smooth walls under the linear regime. Comparisons of extracted damping values with experimental data for different tank sizes show very good agreements. Numerical simulations confirm that slosh damping is indeed a function of slosh amplitude. When slosh amplitude is low, the damping ratio is essentially constant, which is consistent with the empirical correlation. Once the amplitude reaches a critical value, the damping ratio becomes a linearly increasing function of the slosh amplitude. A follow-on experiment validated the developed nonlinear damping relationship. This discovery can

  2. LINEAR MODEL FOR NON ISOSCELES ABSORBERS.

    BERG,J.S.

    2003-05-12

    Previous analyses have assumed that wedge absorbers are triangularly shaped with equal angles for the two faces. In this case, to linear order, the energy loss depends only on the position in the direction of the face tilt, and is independent of the incoming angle. One can instead construct an absorber with entrance and exit faces facing rather general directions. In this case, the energy loss can depend on both the position and the angle of the particle in question. This paper demonstrates that and computes the effect to linear order.

  3. Equivalent linear damping characterization in linear and nonlinear force-stiffness muscle models.

    Ovesy, Marzieh; Nazari, Mohammad Ali; Mahdavian, Mohammad

    2016-02-01

    In the current research, the muscle equivalent linear damping coefficient which is introduced as the force-velocity relation in a muscle model and the corresponding time constant are investigated. In order to reach this goal, a 1D skeletal muscle model was used. Two characterizations of this model using a linear force-stiffness relationship (Hill-type model) and a nonlinear one have been implemented. The OpenSim platform was used for verification of the model. The isometric activation has been used for the simulation. The equivalent linear damping and the time constant of each model were extracted by using the results obtained from the simulation. The results provide a better insight into the characteristics of each model. It is found that the nonlinear models had a response rate closer to the reality compared to the Hill-type models.

  4. Tried and True: Springing into Linear Models

    Darling, Gerald

    2012-01-01

    In eighth grade, students usually learn about forces in science class and linear relationships in math class, crucial topics that form the foundation for further study in science and engineering. An activity that links these two fundamental concepts involves measuring the distance a spring stretches as a function of how much weight is suspended…

  5. Parametric Linear Hybrid Automata for Complex Environmental Systems Modeling

    Samar Hayat Khan Tareen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental systems, whether they be weather patterns or predator-prey relationships, are dependent on a number of different variables, each directly or indirectly affecting the system at large. Since not all of these factors are known, these systems take on non-linear dynamics, making it difficult to accurately predict meaningful behavioral trends far into the future. However, such dynamics do not warrant complete ignorance of different efforts to understand and model close approximations of these systems. Towards this end, we have applied a logical modeling approach to model and analyze the behavioral trends and systematic trajectories that these systems exhibit without delving into their quantification. This approach, formalized by René Thomas for discrete logical modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs and further extended in our previous studies as parametric biological linear hybrid automata (Bio-LHA, has been previously employed for the analyses of different molecular regulatory interactions occurring across various cells and microbial species. As relationships between different interacting components of a system can be simplified as positive or negative influences, we can employ the Bio-LHA framework to represent different components of the environmental system as positive or negative feedbacks. In the present study, we highlight the benefits of hybrid (discrete/continuous modeling which lead to refinements among the fore-casted behaviors in order to find out which ones are actually possible. We have taken two case studies: an interaction of three microbial species in a freshwater pond, and a more complex atmospheric system, to show the applications of the Bio-LHA methodology for the timed hybrid modeling of environmental systems. Results show that the approach using the Bio-LHA is a viable method for behavioral modeling of complex environmental systems by finding timing constraints while keeping the complexity of the model

  6. Ordinal Log-Linear Models for Contingency Tables

    Brzezińska Justyna

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A log-linear analysis is a method providing a comprehensive scheme to describe the association for categorical variables in a contingency table. The log-linear model specifies how the expected counts depend on the levels of the categorical variables for these cells and provide detailed information on the associations. The aim of this paper is to present theoretical, as well as empirical, aspects of ordinal log-linear models used for contingency tables with ordinal variables. We introduce log-linear models for ordinal variables: linear-by-linear association, row effect model, column effect model and RC Goodman’s model. Algorithm, advantages and disadvantages will be discussed in the paper. An empirical analysis will be conducted with the use of R.

  7. Daily Suspended Sediment Discharge Prediction Using Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network

    Uca; Toriman, Ekhwan; Jaafar, Othman; Maru, Rosmini; Arfan, Amal; Saleh Ahmar, Ansari

    2018-01-01

    Prediction of suspended sediment discharge in a catchments area is very important because it can be used to evaluation the erosion hazard, management of its water resources, water quality, hydrology project management (dams, reservoirs, and irrigation) and to determine the extent of the damage that occurred in the catchments. Multiple Linear Regression analysis and artificial neural network can be used to predict the amount of daily suspended sediment discharge. Regression analysis using the least square method, whereas artificial neural networks using Radial Basis Function (RBF) and feedforward multilayer perceptron with three learning algorithms namely Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), Scaled Conjugate Descent (SCD) and Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno Quasi-Newton (BFGS). The number neuron of hidden layer is three to sixteen, while in output layer only one neuron because only one output target. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2 ) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) of the multiple linear regression (MLRg) value Model 2 (6 input variable independent) has the lowest the value of MAE and RMSE (0.0000002 and 13.6039) and highest R2 and CE (0.9971 and 0.9971). When compared between LM, SCG and RBF, the BFGS model structure 3-7-1 is the better and more accurate to prediction suspended sediment discharge in Jenderam catchment. The performance value in testing process, MAE and RMSE (13.5769 and 17.9011) is smallest, meanwhile R2 and CE (0.9999 and 0.9998) is the highest if it compared with the another BFGS Quasi-Newton model (6-3-1, 9-10-1 and 12-12-1). Based on the performance statistics value, MLRg, LM, SCG, BFGS and RBF suitable and accurately for prediction by modeling the non-linear complex behavior of suspended sediment responses to rainfall, water depth and discharge. The comparison between artificial neural network (ANN) and MLRg, the MLRg Model 2 accurately for to prediction suspended sediment discharge (kg

  8. Influence of the void fraction in the linear reactivity model

    Castillo, J.A.; Ramirez, J.R.; Alonso, G.

    2003-01-01

    The linear reactivity model allows the multicycle analysis in pressurized water reactors in a simple and quick way. In the case of the Boiling water reactors the void fraction it varies axially from 0% of voids in the inferior part of the fuel assemblies until approximately 70% of voids to the exit of the same ones. Due to this it is very important the determination of the average void fraction during different stages of the reactor operation to predict the burnt one appropriately of the same ones to inclination of the pattern of linear reactivity. In this work a pursuit is made of the profile of power for different steps of burnt of a typical operation cycle of a Boiling water reactor. Starting from these profiles it builds an algorithm that allows to determine the voids profile and this way to obtain the average value of the same one. The results are compared against those reported by the CM-PRESTO code that uses another method to carry out this calculation. Finally, the range in which is the average value of the void fraction during a typical cycle is determined and an estimate of the impact that it would have the use of this value in the prediction of the reactivity produced by the fuel assemblies is made. (Author)

  9. Recent Updates to the GEOS-5 Linear Model

    Holdaway, Dan; Kim, Jong G.; Errico, Ron; Gelaro, Ronald; Mahajan, Rahul

    2014-01-01

    Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is close to having a working 4DVAR system and has developed a linearized version of GEOS-5.This talk outlines a series of improvements made to the linearized dynamics, physics and trajectory.Of particular interest is the development of linearized cloud microphysics, which provides the framework for 'all-sky' data assimilation.

  10. PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED (PPD) MODEL ...

    HOD

    their low power requirements, are relatively cheap and are environment friendly. ... PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED MODEL EVALUATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING ... The performance of direct evaporative coolers is a.

  11. Double generalized linear compound poisson models to insurance claims data

    Andersen, Daniel Arnfeldt; Bonat, Wagner Hugo

    2017-01-01

    This paper describes the specification, estimation and comparison of double generalized linear compound Poisson models based on the likelihood paradigm. The models are motivated by insurance applications, where the distribution of the response variable is composed by a degenerate distribution...... implementation and illustrate the application of double generalized linear compound Poisson models using a data set about car insurances....

  12. Determining Predictor Importance in Hierarchical Linear Models Using Dominance Analysis

    Luo, Wen; Azen, Razia

    2013-01-01

    Dominance analysis (DA) is a method used to evaluate the relative importance of predictors that was originally proposed for linear regression models. This article proposes an extension of DA that allows researchers to determine the relative importance of predictors in hierarchical linear models (HLM). Commonly used measures of model adequacy in…

  13. Modelling non-linear effects of dark energy

    Bose, Benjamin; Baldi, Marco; Pourtsidou, Alkistis

    2018-04-01

    We investigate the capabilities of perturbation theory in capturing non-linear effects of dark energy. We test constant and evolving w models, as well as models involving momentum exchange between dark energy and dark matter. Specifically, we compare perturbative predictions at 1-loop level against N-body results for four non-standard equations of state as well as varying degrees of momentum exchange between dark energy and dark matter. The interaction is modelled phenomenologically using a time dependent drag term in the Euler equation. We make comparisons at the level of the matter power spectrum and the redshift space monopole and quadrupole. The multipoles are modelled using the Taruya, Nishimichi and Saito (TNS) redshift space spectrum. We find perturbation theory does very well in capturing non-linear effects coming from dark sector interaction. We isolate and quantify the 1-loop contribution coming from the interaction and from the non-standard equation of state. We find the interaction parameter ξ amplifies scale dependent signatures in the range of scales considered. Non-standard equations of state also give scale dependent signatures within this same regime. In redshift space the match with N-body is improved at smaller scales by the addition of the TNS free parameter σv. To quantify the importance of modelling the interaction, we create mock data sets for varying values of ξ using perturbation theory. This data is given errors typical of Stage IV surveys. We then perform a likelihood analysis using the first two multipoles on these sets and a ξ=0 modelling, ignoring the interaction. We find the fiducial growth parameter f is generally recovered even for very large values of ξ both at z=0.5 and z=1. The ξ=0 modelling is most biased in its estimation of f for the phantom w=‑1.1 case.

  14. Thurstonian models for sensory discrimination tests as generalized linear models

    Brockhoff, Per B.; Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen

    2010-01-01

    as a so-called generalized linear model. The underlying sensory difference 6 becomes directly a parameter of the statistical model and the estimate d' and it's standard error becomes the "usual" output of the statistical analysis. The d' for the monadic A-NOT A method is shown to appear as a standard......Sensory discrimination tests such as the triangle, duo-trio, 2-AFC and 3-AFC tests produce binary data and the Thurstonian decision rule links the underlying sensory difference 6 to the observed number of correct responses. In this paper it is shown how each of these four situations can be viewed...

  15. Forecasting Volatility of Dhaka Stock Exchange: Linear Vs Non-linear models

    Masudul Islam

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Prior information about a financial market is very essential for investor to invest money on parches share from the stock market which can strengthen the economy. The study examines the relative ability of various models to forecast daily stock indexes future volatility. The forecasting models that employed from simple to relatively complex ARCH-class models. It is found that among linear models of stock indexes volatility, the moving average model ranks first using root mean square error, mean absolute percent error, Theil-U and Linex loss function  criteria. We also examine five nonlinear models. These models are ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH and restricted GARCH models. We find that nonlinear models failed to dominate linear models utilizing different error measurement criteria and moving average model appears to be the best. Then we forecast the next two months future stock index price volatility by the best (moving average model.

  16. Generalised linear models for correlated pseudo-observations, with applications to multi-state models

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Klein, John P.; Rosthøj, Susanne

    2003-01-01

    Generalised estimating equation; Generalised linear model; Jackknife pseudo-value; Logistic regression; Markov Model; Multi-state model......Generalised estimating equation; Generalised linear model; Jackknife pseudo-value; Logistic regression; Markov Model; Multi-state model...

  17. Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

    Isye Arieshanti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

  18. A linear model of population dynamics

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  19. Predicting Fuel Ignition Quality Using 1H NMR Spectroscopy and Multiple Linear Regression

    Abdul Jameel, Abdul Gani

    2016-09-14

    An improved model for the prediction of ignition quality of hydrocarbon fuels has been developed using 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling. Cetane number (CN) and derived cetane number (DCN) of 71 pure hydrocarbons and 54 hydrocarbon blends were utilized as a data set to study the relationship between ignition quality and molecular structure. CN and DCN are functional equivalents and collectively referred to as D/CN, herein. The effect of molecular weight and weight percent of structural parameters such as paraffinic CH3 groups, paraffinic CH2 groups, paraffinic CH groups, olefinic CH–CH2 groups, naphthenic CH–CH2 groups, and aromatic C–CH groups on D/CN was studied. A particular emphasis on the effect of branching (i.e., methyl substitution) on the D/CN was studied, and a new parameter denoted as the branching index (BI) was introduced to quantify this effect. A new formula was developed to calculate the BI of hydrocarbon fuels using 1H NMR spectroscopy. Multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling was used to develop an empirical relationship between D/CN and the eight structural parameters. This was then used to predict the DCN of many hydrocarbon fuels. The developed model has a high correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.97) and was validated with experimentally measured DCN of twenty-two real fuel mixtures (e.g., gasolines and diesels) and fifty-nine blends of known composition, and the predicted values matched well with the experimental data.

  20. Modelling subject-specific childhood growth using linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines.

    Grajeda, Laura M; Ivanescu, Andrada; Saito, Mayuko; Crainiceanu, Ciprian; Jaganath, Devan; Gilman, Robert H; Crabtree, Jean E; Kelleher, Dermott; Cabrera, Lilia; Cama, Vitaliano; Checkley, William

    2016-01-01

    Childhood growth is a cornerstone of pediatric research. Statistical models need to consider individual trajectories to adequately describe growth outcomes. Specifically, well-defined longitudinal models are essential to characterize both population and subject-specific growth. Linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines can account for the nonlinearity of growth curves and provide reasonable estimators of population and subject-specific growth, velocity and acceleration. We provide a stepwise approach that builds from simple to complex models, and account for the intrinsic complexity of the data. We start with standard cubic splines regression models and build up to a model that includes subject-specific random intercepts and slopes and residual autocorrelation. We then compared cubic regression splines vis-à-vis linear piecewise splines, and with varying number of knots and positions. Statistical code is provided to ensure reproducibility and improve dissemination of methods. Models are applied to longitudinal height measurements in a cohort of 215 Peruvian children followed from birth until their fourth year of life. Unexplained variability, as measured by the variance of the regression model, was reduced from 7.34 when using ordinary least squares to 0.81 (p linear mixed-effect models with random slopes and a first order continuous autoregressive error term. There was substantial heterogeneity in both the intercept (p modeled with a first order continuous autoregressive error term as evidenced by the variogram of the residuals and by a lack of association among residuals. The final model provides a parametric linear regression equation for both estimation and prediction of population- and individual-level growth in height. We show that cubic regression splines are superior to linear regression splines for the case of a small number of knots in both estimation and prediction with the full linear mixed effect model (AIC 19,352 vs. 19

  1. A Dynamic Linear Modeling Approach to Public Policy Change

    Loftis, Matthew; Mortensen, Peter Bjerre

    2017-01-01

    Theories of public policy change, despite their differences, converge on one point of strong agreement. The relationship between policy and its causes can and does change over time. This consensus yields numerous empirical implications, but our standard analytical tools are inadequate for testing...... them. As a result, the dynamic and transformative relationships predicted by policy theories have been left largely unexplored in time-series analysis of public policy. This paper introduces dynamic linear modeling (DLM) as a useful statistical tool for exploring time-varying relationships in public...... policy. The paper offers a detailed exposition of the DLM approach and illustrates its usefulness with a time series analysis of U.S. defense policy from 1957-2010. The results point the way for a new attention to dynamics in the policy process and the paper concludes with a discussion of how...

  2. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  3. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  4. Modeling Non-Linear Material Properties in Composite Materials

    2016-06-28

    Technical Report ARWSB-TR-16013 MODELING NON-LINEAR MATERIAL PROPERTIES IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS Michael F. Macri Andrew G...REPORT TYPE Technical 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE MODELING NON-LINEAR MATERIAL PROPERTIES IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS ...systems are increasingly incorporating composite materials into their design. Many of these systems subject the composites to environmental conditions

  5. Introduction to statistical modelling: linear regression.

    Lunt, Mark

    2015-07-01

    In many studies we wish to assess how a range of variables are associated with a particular outcome and also determine the strength of such relationships so that we can begin to understand how these factors relate to each other at a population level. Ultimately, we may also be interested in predicting the outcome from a series of predictive factors available at, say, a routine clinic visit. In a recent article in Rheumatology, Desai et al. did precisely that when they studied the prediction of hip and spine BMD from hand BMD and various demographic, lifestyle, disease and therapy variables in patients with RA. This article aims to introduce the statistical methodology that can be used in such a situation and explain the meaning of some of the terms employed. It will also outline some common pitfalls encountered when performing such analyses. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Force prediction in permanent magnet flat linear motors (abstract)

    Eastham, J.F.; Akmese, R.

    1991-01-01

    The advent of neodymium iron boron rare-earth permanent magnet material has afforded the opportunity to construct linear machines of high force to weight ratio. The paper describes the design and construction of an axial flux machine and rotating drum test rig. The machine occupies an arc of 45 degree on a drum 1.22 m in diameter. The excitation is provided by blocks of NdFeB material which are skewed in order to minimize the force variations due to slotting. The stator carries a three-phase short-chorded double-layer winding of four poles. The machine is supplied by a PWM inverter the fundamental component of which is phase locked to the rotor position so that a ''dc brushless'' drive system is produced. Electromagnetic forces including ripple forces are measured at supply frequencies up to 100 Hz. They are compared with finite-element analysis which calculates the force variation over the time period. The paper then considers some of the causes of ripple torque. In particular, the force production due solely to the permanent magnet excitation is considered. This has two important components each acting along the line of motion of the machine, one is due to slotting and the other is due to the finite length of the primary. In the practical machine the excitation poles are skewed to minimize the slotting force and the effectiveness of this is confirmed by both results from the experiments and the finite-element analysis. The end effect force is shown to have a space period of twice that of the excitation. The amplitude of this force and its period are again confirmed by practical results

  7. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

    Manning, Robert M.

    1991-01-01

    The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

  8. Reliability modelling and simulation of switched linear system ...

    Reliability modelling and simulation of switched linear system control using temporal databases. ... design of fault-tolerant real-time switching systems control and modelling embedded micro-schedulers for complex systems maintenance.

  9. Multivariate statistical modelling based on generalized linear models

    Fahrmeir, Ludwig

    1994-01-01

    This book is concerned with the use of generalized linear models for univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Its emphasis is to provide a detailed introductory survey of the subject based on the analysis of real data drawn from a variety of subjects including the biological sciences, economics, and the social sciences. Where possible, technical details and proofs are deferred to an appendix in order to provide an accessible account for non-experts. Topics covered include: models for multi-categorical responses, model checking, time series and longitudinal data, random effects models, and state-space models. Throughout, the authors have taken great pains to discuss the underlying theoretical ideas in ways that relate well to the data at hand. As a result, numerous researchers whose work relies on the use of these models will find this an invaluable account to have on their desks. "The basic aim of the authors is to bring together and review a large part of recent advances in statistical modelling of m...

  10. Approximating chiral quark models with linear σ-models

    Broniowski, Wojciech; Golli, Bojan

    2003-01-01

    We study the approximation of chiral quark models with simpler models, obtained via gradient expansion. The resulting Lagrangian of the type of the linear σ-model contains, at the lowest level of the gradient-expanded meson action, an additional term of the form ((1)/(2))A(σ∂ μ σ+π∂ μ π) 2 . We investigate the dynamical consequences of this term and its relevance to the phenomenology of the soliton models of the nucleon. It is found that the inclusion of the new term allows for a more efficient approximation of the underlying quark theory, especially in those cases where dynamics allows for a large deviation of the chiral fields from the chiral circle, such as in quark models with non-local regulators. This is of practical importance, since the σ-models with valence quarks only are technically much easier to treat and simpler to solve than the quark models with the full-fledged Dirac sea

  11. Latent log-linear models for handwritten digit classification.

    Deselaers, Thomas; Gass, Tobias; Heigold, Georg; Ney, Hermann

    2012-06-01

    We present latent log-linear models, an extension of log-linear models incorporating latent variables, and we propose two applications thereof: log-linear mixture models and image deformation-aware log-linear models. The resulting models are fully discriminative, can be trained efficiently, and the model complexity can be controlled. Log-linear mixture models offer additional flexibility within the log-linear modeling framework. Unlike previous approaches, the image deformation-aware model directly considers image deformations and allows for a discriminative training of the deformation parameters. Both are trained using alternating optimization. For certain variants, convergence to a stationary point is guaranteed and, in practice, even variants without this guarantee converge and find models that perform well. We tune the methods on the USPS data set and evaluate on the MNIST data set, demonstrating the generalization capabilities of our proposed models. Our models, although using significantly fewer parameters, are able to obtain competitive results with models proposed in the literature.

  12. Anti-symmetrically fused model and non-linear integral equations in the three-state Uimin-Sutherland model

    Fujii, Akira; Kluemper, Andreas

    1999-01-01

    We derive the non-linear integral equations determining the free energy of the three-state pure bosonic Uimin-Sutherland model. In order to find a complete set of auxiliary functions, the anti-symmetric fusion procedure is utilized. We solve the non-linear integral equations numerically and see that the low-temperature behavior coincides with that predicted by conformal field theory. The magnetization and magnetic susceptibility are also calculated by means of the non-linear integral equation

  13. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... signal based on a process model, coping with constraints on inputs and ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes ... section 5 presents the simulation results and section 6.

  14. Fourth standard model family neutrino at future linear colliders

    Ciftci, A.K.; Ciftci, R.; Sultansoy, S.

    2005-01-01

    It is known that flavor democracy favors the existence of the fourth standard model (SM) family. In order to give nonzero masses for the first three-family fermions flavor democracy has to be slightly broken. A parametrization for democracy breaking, which gives the correct values for fundamental fermion masses and, at the same time, predicts quark and lepton Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrices in a good agreement with the experimental data, is proposed. The pair productions of the fourth SM family Dirac (ν 4 ) and Majorana (N 1 ) neutrinos at future linear colliders with √(s)=500 GeV, 1 TeV, and 3 TeV are considered. The cross section for the process e + e - →ν 4 ν 4 (N 1 N 1 ) and the branching ratios for possible decay modes of the both neutrinos are determined. The decays of the fourth family neutrinos into muon channels (ν 4 (N 1 )→μ ± W ± ) provide cleanest signature at e + e - colliders. Meanwhile, in our parametrization this channel is dominant. W bosons produced in decays of the fourth family neutrinos will be seen in detector as either di-jets or isolated leptons. As an example, we consider the production of 200 GeV mass fourth family neutrinos at √(s)=500 GeV linear colliders by taking into account di-muon plus four jet events as signatures

  15. Linear Regression Models for Estimating True Subsurface ...

    47

    The objective is to minimize the processing time and computer memory required. 10 to carry out inversion .... to the mainland by two long bridges. .... term. In this approach, the model converges when the squared sum of the differences. 143.

  16. Applying linear discriminant analysis to predict groundwater redox conditions conducive to denitrification

    Wilson, S. R.; Close, M. E.; Abraham, P.

    2018-01-01

    Diffuse nitrate losses from agricultural land pollute groundwater resources worldwide, but can be attenuated under reducing subsurface conditions. In New Zealand, the ability to predict where groundwater denitrification occurs is important for understanding the linkage between land use and discharges of nitrate-bearing groundwater to streams. This study assesses the application of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for predicting groundwater redox status for Southland, a major dairy farming region in New Zealand. Data cases were developed by assigning a redox status to samples derived from a regional groundwater quality database. Pre-existing regional-scale geospatial databases were used as training variables for the discriminant functions. The predictive accuracy of the discriminant functions was slightly improved by optimising the thresholds between sample depth classes. The models predict 23% of the region as being reducing at shallow depths (water table, and low-permeability clastic sediments. The coastal plains are an area of widespread groundwater discharge, and the soil and hydrology characteristics require the land to be artificially drained to render the land suitable for farming. For the improvement of water quality in coastal areas, it is therefore important that land and water management efforts focus on understanding hydrological bypassing that may occur via artificial drainage systems.

  17. A linear programming computational framework integrates phosphor-proteomics and prior knowledge to predict drug efficacy.

    Ji, Zhiwei; Wang, Bing; Yan, Ke; Dong, Ligang; Meng, Guanmin; Shi, Lei

    2017-12-21

    In recent years, the integration of 'omics' technologies, high performance computation, and mathematical modeling of biological processes marks that the systems biology has started to fundamentally impact the way of approaching drug discovery. The LINCS public data warehouse provides detailed information about cell responses with various genetic and environmental stressors. It can be greatly helpful in developing new drugs and therapeutics, as well as improving the situations of lacking effective drugs, drug resistance and relapse in cancer therapies, etc. In this study, we developed a Ternary status based Integer Linear Programming (TILP) method to infer cell-specific signaling pathway network and predict compounds' treatment efficacy. The novelty of our study is that phosphor-proteomic data and prior knowledge are combined for modeling and optimizing the signaling network. To test the power of our approach, a generic pathway network was constructed for a human breast cancer cell line MCF7; and the TILP model was used to infer MCF7-specific pathways with a set of phosphor-proteomic data collected from ten representative small molecule chemical compounds (most of them were studied in breast cancer treatment). Cross-validation indicated that the MCF7-specific pathway network inferred by TILP were reliable predicting a compound's efficacy. Finally, we applied TILP to re-optimize the inferred cell-specific pathways and predict the outcomes of five small compounds (carmustine, doxorubicin, GW-8510, daunorubicin, and verapamil), which were rarely used in clinic for breast cancer. In the simulation, the proposed approach facilitates us to identify a compound's treatment efficacy qualitatively and quantitatively, and the cross validation analysis indicated good accuracy in predicting effects of five compounds. In summary, the TILP model is useful for discovering new drugs for clinic use, and also elucidating the potential mechanisms of a compound to targets.

  18. Current error vector based prediction control of the section winding permanent magnet linear synchronous motor

    Hong Junjie, E-mail: hongjjie@mail.sysu.edu.cn [School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006 (China); Li Liyi, E-mail: liliyi@hit.edu.cn [Dept. Electrical Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150000 (China); Zong Zhijian; Liu Zhongtu [School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006 (China)

    2011-10-15

    Highlights: {yields} The structure of the permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (SW-PMLSM) is new. {yields} A new current control method CEVPC is employed in this motor. {yields} The sectional power supply method is different to the others and effective. {yields} The performance gets worse with voltage and current limitations. - Abstract: To include features such as greater thrust density, higher efficiency without reducing the thrust stability, this paper proposes a section winding permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (SW-PMLSM), whose iron core is continuous, whereas winding is divided. The discrete system model of the motor is derived. With the definition of the current error vector and selection of the value function, the theory of the current error vector based prediction control (CEVPC) for the motor currents is explained clearly. According to the winding section feature, the motion region of the mover is divided into five zones, in which the implementation of the current predictive control method is proposed. Finally, the experimental platform is constructed and experiments are carried out. The results show: the current control effect has good dynamic response, and the thrust on the mover remains constant basically.

  19. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. The use of artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression to predict rate of medical waste generation

    Jahandideh, Sepideh; Jahandideh, Samad; Asadabadi, Ebrahim Barzegari; Askarian, Mehrdad; Movahedi, Mohammad Mehdi; Hosseini, Somayyeh; Jahandideh, Mina

    2009-01-01

    Prediction of the amount of hospital waste production will be helpful in the storage, transportation and disposal of hospital waste management. Based on this fact, two predictor models including artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multiple linear regression (MLR) were applied to predict the rate of medical waste generation totally and in different types of sharp, infectious and general. In this study, a 5-fold cross-validation procedure on a database containing total of 50 hospitals of Fars province (Iran) were used to verify the performance of the models. Three performance measures including MAR, RMSE and R 2 were used to evaluate performance of models. The MLR as a conventional model obtained poor prediction performance measure values. However, MLR distinguished hospital capacity and bed occupancy as more significant parameters. On the other hand, ANNs as a more powerful model, which has not been introduced in predicting rate of medical waste generation, showed high performance measure values, especially 0.99 value of R 2 confirming the good fit of the data. Such satisfactory results could be attributed to the non-linear nature of ANNs in problem solving which provides the opportunity for relating independent variables to dependent ones non-linearly. In conclusion, the obtained results showed that our ANN-based model approach is very promising and may play a useful role in developing a better cost-effective strategy for waste management in future.

  1. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  2. A hybrid genetic algorithm and linear regression for prediction of NOx emission in power generation plant

    Bunyamin, Muhammad Afif; Yap, Keem Siah; Aziz, Nur Liyana Afiqah Abdul; Tiong, Sheih Kiong; Wong, Shen Yuong; Kamal, Md Fauzan

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach of gas emission estimation in power generation plant using a hybrid Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Linear Regression (LR) (denoted as GA-LR). The LR is one of the approaches that model the relationship between an output dependant variable, y, with one or more explanatory variables or inputs which denoted as x. It is able to estimate unknown model parameters from inputs data. On the other hand, GA is used to search for the optimal solution until specific criteria is met causing termination. These results include providing good solutions as compared to one optimal solution for complex problems. Thus, GA is widely used as feature selection. By combining the LR and GA (GA-LR), this new technique is able to select the most important input features as well as giving more accurate prediction by minimizing the prediction errors. This new technique is able to produce more consistent of gas emission estimation, which may help in reducing population to the environment. In this paper, the study's interest is focused on nitrous oxides (NOx) prediction. The results of the experiment are encouraging.

  3. Predictive models of moth development

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  4. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  5. Robust Output Model Predictive Control of an Unstable Rijke Tube

    Fabian Jarmolowitz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This work investigates the active control of an unstable Rijke tube using robust output model predictive control (RMPC. As internal model a polytopic linear system with constraints is assumed to account for uncertainties. For guaranteed stability, a linear state feedback controller is designed using linear matrix inequalities and used within a feedback formulation of the model predictive controller. For state estimation a robust gain-scheduled observer is developed. It is shown that the proposed RMPC ensures robust stability under constraints over the considered operating range.

  6. Random effect selection in generalised linear models

    Denwood, Matt; Houe, Hans; Forkman, Björn

    We analysed abattoir recordings of meat inspection codes with possible relevance to onfarm animal welfare in cattle. Random effects logistic regression models were used to describe individual-level data obtained from 461,406 cattle slaughtered in Denmark. Our results demonstrate that the largest...

  7. Model Order Reduction for Non Linear Mechanics

    Pinillo, Rubén

    2017-01-01

    Context: Automotive industry is moving towards a new generation of cars. Main idea: Cars are furnished with radars, cameras, sensors, etc… providing useful information about the environment surrounding the car. Goals: Provide an efficient model for the radar input/output. Reducing computational costs by means of big data techniques.

  8. Identification of Influential Points in a Linear Regression Model

    Jan Grosz

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the detection and identification of influential points in the linear regression model. Three methods of detection of outliers and leverage points are described. These procedures can also be used for one-sample (independentdatasets. This paper briefly describes theoretical aspects of several robust methods as well. Robust statistics is a powerful tool to increase the reliability and accuracy of statistical modelling and data analysis. A simulation model of the simple linear regression is presented.

  9. Heterotic sigma models and non-linear strings

    Hull, C.M.

    1986-01-01

    The two-dimensional supersymmetric non-linear sigma models are examined with respect to the heterotic string. The paper was presented at the workshop on :Supersymmetry and its applications', Cambridge, United Kingdom, 1985. The non-linear sigma model with Wess-Zumino-type term, the coupling of the fermionic superfields to the sigma model, super-conformal invariance, and the supersymmetric string, are all discussed. (U.K.)

  10. Linear latent variable models: the lava-package

    Holst, Klaus Kähler; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2013-01-01

    are implemented including robust standard errors for clustered correlated data, multigroup analyses, non-linear parameter constraints, inference with incomplete data, maximum likelihood estimation with censored and binary observations, and instrumental variable estimators. In addition an extensive simulation......An R package for specifying and estimating linear latent variable models is presented. The philosophy of the implementation is to separate the model specification from the actual data, which leads to a dynamic and easy way of modeling complex hierarchical structures. Several advanced features...

  11. On-line control models for the Stanford Linear Collider

    Sheppard, J.C.; Helm, R.H.; Lee, M.J.; Woodley, M.D.

    1983-03-01

    Models for computer control of the SLAC three-kilometer linear accelerator and damping rings have been developed as part of the control system for the Stanford Linear Collider. Some of these models have been tested experimentally and implemented in the control program for routine linac operations. This paper will describe the development and implementation of these models, as well as some of the operational results

  12. Generalized Linear Models with Applications in Engineering and the Sciences

    Myers, Raymond H; Vining, G Geoffrey; Robinson, Timothy J

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition "The obvious enthusiasm of Myers, Montgomery, and Vining and their reliance on their many examples as a major focus of their pedagogy make Generalized Linear Models a joy to read. Every statistician working in any area of applied science should buy it and experience the excitement of these new approaches to familiar activities."-Technometrics Generalized Linear Models: With Applications in Engineering and the Sciences, Second Edition continues to provide a clear introduction to the theoretical foundations and key applications of generalized linear models (GLMs). Ma

  13. Modelling a linear PM motor including magnetic saturation

    Polinder, H.; Slootweg, J.G.; Compter, J.C.; Hoeijmakers, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    The use of linear permanent-magnet (PM) actuators increases in a wide variety of applications because of the high force density, robustness and accuracy. The paper describes the modelling of a linear PM motor applied in, for example, wafer steppers, including magnetic saturation. This is important

  14. Application of the simplex method of linear programming model to ...

    This work discussed how the simplex method of linear programming could be used to maximize the profit of any business firm using Saclux Paint Company as a case study. It equally elucidated the effect variation in the optimal result obtained from linear programming model, will have on any given firm. It was demonstrated ...

  15. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.

    Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.

  16. Genetic parameters for racing records in trotters using linear and generalized linear models.

    Suontama, M; van der Werf, J H J; Juga, J; Ojala, M

    2012-09-01

    Heritability and repeatability and genetic and phenotypic correlations were estimated for trotting race records with linear and generalized linear models using 510,519 records on 17,792 Finnhorses and 513,161 records on 25,536 Standardbred trotters. Heritability and repeatability were estimated for single racing time and earnings traits with linear models, and logarithmic scale was used for racing time and fourth-root scale for earnings to correct for nonnormality. Generalized linear models with a gamma distribution were applied for single racing time and with a multinomial distribution for single earnings traits. In addition, genetic parameters for annual earnings were estimated with linear models on the observed and fourth-root scales. Racing success traits of single placings, winnings, breaking stride, and disqualifications were analyzed using generalized linear models with a binomial distribution. Estimates of heritability were greatest for racing time, which ranged from 0.32 to 0.34. Estimates of heritability were low for single earnings with all distributions, ranging from 0.01 to 0.09. Annual earnings were closer to normal distribution than single earnings. Heritability estimates were moderate for annual earnings on the fourth-root scale, 0.19 for Finnhorses and 0.27 for Standardbred trotters. Heritability estimates for binomial racing success variables ranged from 0.04 to 0.12, being greatest for winnings and least for breaking stride. Genetic correlations among racing traits were high, whereas phenotypic correlations were mainly low to moderate, except correlations between racing time and earnings were high. On the basis of a moderate heritability and moderate to high repeatability for racing time and annual earnings, selection of horses for these traits is effective when based on a few repeated records. Because of high genetic correlations, direct selection for racing time and annual earnings would also result in good genetic response in racing success.

  17. The microcomputer scientific software series 2: general linear model--regression.

    Harold M. Rauscher

    1983-01-01

    The general linear model regression (GLMR) program provides the microcomputer user with a sophisticated regression analysis capability. The output provides a regression ANOVA table, estimators of the regression model coefficients, their confidence intervals, confidence intervals around the predicted Y-values, residuals for plotting, a check for multicollinearity, a...

  18. Validation of Lifetime Prediction of IGBT Modules Based on Linear Damage Accumulation by Means of Superimposed Power Cycling Tests

    Choi, Ui-Min; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, the lifetime prediction of power device modules based on the linear damage accumulation is studied in conjunction with simple mission profiles of converters. Superimposed power cycling conditions, which are called simple mission profiles in this paper, are made based on a lifetime ...... prediction of IGBT modules under power converter applications.......In this paper, the lifetime prediction of power device modules based on the linear damage accumulation is studied in conjunction with simple mission profiles of converters. Superimposed power cycling conditions, which are called simple mission profiles in this paper, are made based on a lifetime...... model in respect to junction temperature swing duration. This model has been built based on 39 power cycling test results of 600-V 30-A three-phase-molded IGBT modules. Six tests are performed under three superimposed power cycling conditions using an advanced power cycling test setup. The experimental...

  19. Predicting microRNA-disease associations using label propagation based on linear neighborhood similarity.

    Li, Guanghui; Luo, Jiawei; Xiao, Qiu; Liang, Cheng; Ding, Pingjian

    2018-05-12

    Interactions between microRNAs (miRNAs) and diseases can yield important information for uncovering novel prognostic markers. Since experimental determination of disease-miRNA associations is time-consuming and costly, attention has been given to designing efficient and robust computational techniques for identifying undiscovered interactions. In this study, we present a label propagation model with linear neighborhood similarity, called LPLNS, to predict unobserved miRNA-disease associations. Additionally, a preprocessing step is performed to derive new interaction likelihood profiles that will contribute to the prediction since new miRNAs and diseases lack known associations. Our results demonstrate that the LPLNS model based on the known disease-miRNA associations could achieve impressive performance with an AUC of 0.9034. Furthermore, we observed that the LPLNS model based on new interaction likelihood profiles could improve the performance to an AUC of 0.9127. This was better than other comparable methods. In addition, case studies also demonstrated our method's outstanding performance for inferring undiscovered interactions between miRNAs and diseases, especially for novel diseases. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. Two stage neural network modelling for robust model predictive control.

    Patan, Krzysztof

    2018-01-01

    The paper proposes a novel robust model predictive control scheme realized by means of artificial neural networks. The neural networks are used twofold: to design the so-called fundamental model of a plant and to catch uncertainty associated with the plant model. In order to simplify the optimization process carried out within the framework of predictive control an instantaneous linearization is applied which renders it possible to define the optimization problem in the form of constrained quadratic programming. Stability of the proposed control system is also investigated by showing that a cost function is monotonically decreasing with respect to time. Derived robust model predictive control is tested and validated on the example of a pneumatic servomechanism working at different operating regimes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network to Predict Blood Glucose in Overweight Patients.

    Wang, J; Wang, F; Liu, Y; Xu, J; Lin, H; Jia, B; Zuo, W; Jiang, Y; Hu, L; Lin, F

    2016-01-01

    Overweight individuals are at higher risk for developing type II diabetes than the general population. We conducted this study to analyze the correlation between blood glucose and biochemical parameters, and developed a blood glucose prediction model tailored to overweight patients. A total of 346 overweight Chinese people patients ages 18-81 years were involved in this study. Their levels of fasting glucose (fs-GLU), blood lipids, and hepatic and renal functions were measured and analyzed by multiple linear regression (MLR). Based the MLR results, we developed a back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model by selecting tansig as the transfer function of the hidden layers nodes, and purelin for the output layer nodes, with training goal of 0.5×10(-5). There was significant correlation between fs-GLU with age, BMI, and blood biochemical indexes (P<0.05). The results of MLR analysis indicated that age, fasting alanine transaminase (fs-ALT), blood urea nitrogen (fs-BUN), total protein (fs-TP), uric acid (fs-BUN), and BMI are 6 independent variables related to fs-GLU. Based on these parameters, the BP-ANN model was performed well and reached high prediction accuracy when training 1 000 epoch (R=0.9987). The level of fs-GLU was predictable using the proposed BP-ANN model based on 6 related parameters (age, fs-ALT, fs-BUN, fs-TP, fs-UA and BMI) in overweight patients. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  2. Linear approximation model network and its formation via ...

    niques, an alternative `linear approximation model' (LAM) network approach is .... network is LPV, existing LTI theory is difficult to apply (Kailath 1980). ..... Beck J V, Arnold K J 1977 Parameter estimation in engineering and science (New York: ...

  3. Sphaleron in a non-linear sigma model

    Sogo, Kiyoshi; Fujimoto, Yasushi.

    1989-08-01

    We present an exact classical saddle point solution in a non-linear sigma model. It has a topological charge 1/2 and mediates the vacuum transition. The quantum fluctuations and the transition rate are also examined. (author)

  4. On D-branes from gauged linear sigma models

    Govindarajan, S.; Jayaraman, T.; Sarkar, T.

    2001-01-01

    We study both A-type and B-type D-branes in the gauged linear sigma model by considering worldsheets with boundary. The boundary conditions on the matter and vector multiplet fields are first considered in the large-volume phase/non-linear sigma model limit of the corresponding Calabi-Yau manifold, where we find that we need to add a contact term on the boundary. These considerations enable to us to derive the boundary conditions in the full gauged linear sigma model, including the addition of the appropriate boundary contact terms, such that these boundary conditions have the correct non-linear sigma model limit. Most of the analysis is for the case of Calabi-Yau manifolds with one Kaehler modulus (including those corresponding to hypersurfaces in weighted projective space), though we comment on possible generalisations

  5. Optimization for decision making linear and quadratic models

    Murty, Katta G

    2010-01-01

    While maintaining the rigorous linear programming instruction required, Murty's new book is unique in its focus on developing modeling skills to support valid decision-making for complex real world problems, and includes solutions to brand new algorithms.

  6. Study of linear induction motor characteristics : the Mosebach model

    1976-05-31

    This report covers the Mosebach theory of the double-sided linear induction motor, starting with the ideallized model and accompanying assumptions, and ending with relations for thrust, airgap power, and motor efficiency. Solutions of the magnetic in...

  7. Optimization Research of Generation Investment Based on Linear Programming Model

    Wu, Juan; Ge, Xueqian

    Linear programming is an important branch of operational research and it is a mathematical method to assist the people to carry out scientific management. GAMS is an advanced simulation and optimization modeling language and it will combine a large number of complex mathematical programming, such as linear programming LP, nonlinear programming NLP, MIP and other mixed-integer programming with the system simulation. In this paper, based on the linear programming model, the optimized investment decision-making of generation is simulated and analyzed. At last, the optimal installed capacity of power plants and the final total cost are got, which provides the rational decision-making basis for optimized investments.

  8. On Practical tuning of Model Uncertainty in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Model predictive control (MPC) has in previous works been applied on wind turbines with promising results. These results apply linear MPC, i.e., linear models linearized at different operational points depending on the wind speed. The linearized models are derived from a nonlinear first principles...... model of a wind turbine. In this paper, we investigate the impact of this approach on the performance of a wind turbine. In particular, we focus on the most non-linear operational ranges of a wind turbine. The MPC controller is designed for, tested, and evaluated at an industrial high fidelity wind...

  9. Generalized linear mixed models modern concepts, methods and applications

    Stroup, Walter W

    2012-01-01

    PART I The Big PictureModeling BasicsWhat Is a Model?Two Model Forms: Model Equation and Probability DistributionTypes of Model EffectsWriting Models in Matrix FormSummary: Essential Elements for a Complete Statement of the ModelDesign MattersIntroductory Ideas for Translating Design and Objectives into ModelsDescribing ""Data Architecture"" to Facilitate Model SpecificationFrom Plot Plan to Linear PredictorDistribution MattersMore Complex Example: Multiple Factors with Different Units of ReplicationSetting the StageGoals for Inference with Models: OverviewBasic Tools of InferenceIssue I: Data

  10. A comparison of linear tyre models for analysing shimmy

    Besselink, I.J.M.; Maas, J.W.L.H.; Nijmeijer, H.

    2011-01-01

    A comparison is made between three linear, dynamic tyre models using low speed step responses and yaw oscillation tests. The match with the measurements improves with increasing complexity of the tyre model. Application of the different tyre models to a two degree of freedom trailing arm suspension

  11. Unification of three linear models for the transient visual system

    Brinker, den A.C.

    1989-01-01

    Three different linear filters are considered as a model describing the experimentally determined triphasic impulse responses of discs. These impulse responses arc associated with the transient visual system. Each model reveals a different feature of the system. Unification of the models is

  12. A BEHAVIORAL-APPROACH TO LINEAR EXACT MODELING

    ANTOULAS, AC; WILLEMS, JC

    1993-01-01

    The behavioral approach to system theory provides a parameter-free framework for the study of the general problem of linear exact modeling and recursive modeling. The main contribution of this paper is the solution of the (continuous-time) polynomial-exponential time series modeling problem. Both

  13. Linearized models for a new magnetic control in MAST

    Artaserse, G., E-mail: giovanni.artaserse@enea.it [Associazione Euratom-ENEA sulla Fusione, Via Enrico Fermi 45, I-00044 Frascati (RM) (Italy); Maviglia, F.; Albanese, R. [Associazione Euratom-ENEA-CREATE sulla Fusione, Via Claudio 21, I-80125 Napoli (Italy); McArdle, G.J.; Pangione, L. [EURATOM/CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: ► We applied linearized models for a new magnetic control on MAST tokamak. ► A suite of procedures, conceived to be machine independent, have been used. ► We carried out model-based simulations, taking into account eddy currents effects. ► Comparison with the EFIT flux maps and the experimental magnetic signals are shown. ► A current driven model for the dynamic simulations of the experimental data have been performed. -- Abstract: The aim of this work is to provide reliable linearized models for the design and assessment of a new magnetic control system for MAST (Mega Ampère Spherical Tokamak) using rtEFIT, which can easily be exported to MAST Upgrade. Linearized models for magnetic control have been obtained using the 2D axisymmetric finite element code CREATE L. MAST linearized models include equivalent 2D axisymmetric schematization of poloidal field (PF) coils, vacuum vessel, and other conducting structures. A plasmaless and a double null configuration have been chosen as benchmark cases for the comparison with experimental data and EFIT reconstructions. Good agreement has been found with the EFIT flux map and the experimental signals coming from magnetic probes with only few mismatches probably due to broken sensors. A suite of procedures (equipped with a user friendly interface to be run even remotely) to provide linearized models for magnetic control is now available on the MAST linux machines. A new current driven model has been used to obtain a state space model having the PF coil currents as inputs. Dynamic simulations of experimental data have been carried out using linearized models, including modelling of the effects of the passive structures, showing a fair agreement. The modelling activity has been useful also to reproduce accurately the interaction between plasma current and radial position control loops.

  14. Linearized models for a new magnetic control in MAST

    Artaserse, G.; Maviglia, F.; Albanese, R.; McArdle, G.J.; Pangione, L.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We applied linearized models for a new magnetic control on MAST tokamak. ► A suite of procedures, conceived to be machine independent, have been used. ► We carried out model-based simulations, taking into account eddy currents effects. ► Comparison with the EFIT flux maps and the experimental magnetic signals are shown. ► A current driven model for the dynamic simulations of the experimental data have been performed. -- Abstract: The aim of this work is to provide reliable linearized models for the design and assessment of a new magnetic control system for MAST (Mega Ampère Spherical Tokamak) using rtEFIT, which can easily be exported to MAST Upgrade. Linearized models for magnetic control have been obtained using the 2D axisymmetric finite element code CREATE L. MAST linearized models include equivalent 2D axisymmetric schematization of poloidal field (PF) coils, vacuum vessel, and other conducting structures. A plasmaless and a double null configuration have been chosen as benchmark cases for the comparison with experimental data and EFIT reconstructions. Good agreement has been found with the EFIT flux map and the experimental signals coming from magnetic probes with only few mismatches probably due to broken sensors. A suite of procedures (equipped with a user friendly interface to be run even remotely) to provide linearized models for magnetic control is now available on the MAST linux machines. A new current driven model has been used to obtain a state space model having the PF coil currents as inputs. Dynamic simulations of experimental data have been carried out using linearized models, including modelling of the effects of the passive structures, showing a fair agreement. The modelling activity has been useful also to reproduce accurately the interaction between plasma current and radial position control loops

  15. Non-linear dynamical signal characterization for prediction of defibrillation success through machine learning

    Shandilya Sharad

    2012-10-01

    .6% and 60.9%, respectively. Conclusion We report the development and first-use of a nontraditional non-linear method of analyzing the VF ECG signal, yielding high predictive accuracies of defibrillation success. Furthermore, incorporation of features from the PetCO2 signal noticeably increased model robustness. These predictive capabilities should further improve with the availability of a larger database.

  16. Performance prediction of gas turbines by solving a system of non-linear equations

    Kaikko, J

    1998-09-01

    This study presents a novel method for implementing the performance prediction of gas turbines from the component models. It is based on solving the non-linear set of equations that corresponds to the process equations, and the mass and energy balances for the engine. General models have been presented for determining the steady state operation of single components. Single and multiple shad arrangements have been examined with consideration also being given to heat regeneration and intercooling. Emphasis has been placed upon axial gas turbines of an industrial scale. Applying the models requires no information of the structural dimensions of the gas turbines. On comparison with the commonly applied component matching procedures, this method incorporates several advantages. The application of the models for providing results is facilitated as less attention needs to be paid to calculation sequences and routines. Solving the set of equations is based on zeroing co-ordinate functions that are directly derived from the modelling equations. Therefore, controlling the accuracy of the results is easy. This method gives more freedom for the selection of the modelling parameters since, unlike for the matching procedures, exchanging these criteria does not itself affect the algorithms. Implicit relationships between the variables are of no significance, thus increasing the freedom for the modelling equations as well. The mathematical models developed in this thesis will provide facilities to optimise the operation of any major gas turbine configuration with respect to the desired process parameters. The computational methods used in this study may also be adapted to any other modelling problems arising in industry. (orig.) 36 refs.

  17. Linear programming model can explain respiration of fermentation products

    Möller, Philip; Liu, Xiaochen; Schuster, Stefan

    2018-01-01

    Many differentiated cells rely primarily on mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation for generating energy in the form of ATP needed for cellular metabolism. In contrast most tumor cells instead rely on aerobic glycolysis leading to lactate to about the same extent as on respiration. Warburg found that cancer cells to support oxidative phosphorylation, tend to ferment glucose or other energy source into lactate even in the presence of sufficient oxygen, which is an inefficient way to generate ATP. This effect also occurs in striated muscle cells, activated lymphocytes and microglia, endothelial cells and several mammalian cell types, a phenomenon termed the “Warburg effect”. The effect is paradoxical at first glance because the ATP production rate of aerobic glycolysis is much slower than that of respiration and the energy demands are better to be met by pure oxidative phosphorylation. We tackle this question by building a minimal model including three combined reactions. The new aspect in extension to earlier models is that we take into account the possible uptake and oxidation of the fermentation products. We examine the case where the cell can allocate protein on several enzymes in a varying distribution and model this by a linear programming problem in which the objective is to maximize the ATP production rate under different combinations of constraints on enzymes. Depending on the cost of reactions and limitation of the substrates, this leads to pure respiration, pure fermentation, and a mixture of respiration and fermentation. The model predicts that fermentation products are only oxidized when glucose is scarce or its uptake is severely limited. PMID:29415045

  18. Linear programming model can explain respiration of fermentation products.

    Möller, Philip; Liu, Xiaochen; Schuster, Stefan; Boley, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    Many differentiated cells rely primarily on mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation for generating energy in the form of ATP needed for cellular metabolism. In contrast most tumor cells instead rely on aerobic glycolysis leading to lactate to about the same extent as on respiration. Warburg found that cancer cells to support oxidative phosphorylation, tend to ferment glucose or other energy source into lactate even in the presence of sufficient oxygen, which is an inefficient way to generate ATP. This effect also occurs in striated muscle cells, activated lymphocytes and microglia, endothelial cells and several mammalian cell types, a phenomenon termed the "Warburg effect". The effect is paradoxical at first glance because the ATP production rate of aerobic glycolysis is much slower than that of respiration and the energy demands are better to be met by pure oxidative phosphorylation. We tackle this question by building a minimal model including three combined reactions. The new aspect in extension to earlier models is that we take into account the possible uptake and oxidation of the fermentation products. We examine the case where the cell can allocate protein on several enzymes in a varying distribution and model this by a linear programming problem in which the objective is to maximize the ATP production rate under different combinations of constraints on enzymes. Depending on the cost of reactions and limitation of the substrates, this leads to pure respiration, pure fermentation, and a mixture of respiration and fermentation. The model predicts that fermentation products are only oxidized when glucose is scarce or its uptake is severely limited.

  19. H∞ /H2 model reduction through dilated linear matrix inequalities

    Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents sufficient dilated linear matrix inequalities (LMI) conditions to the $H_{infty}$ and $H_{2}$ model reduction problem. A special structure of the auxiliary (slack) variables allows the original model of order $n$ to be reduced to an order $r=n/s$ where $n,r,s in field{N}$. Arb......This paper presents sufficient dilated linear matrix inequalities (LMI) conditions to the $H_{infty}$ and $H_{2}$ model reduction problem. A special structure of the auxiliary (slack) variables allows the original model of order $n$ to be reduced to an order $r=n/s$ where $n,r,s in field...

  20. Predictive inference for best linear combination of biomarkers subject to limits of detection.

    Coolen-Maturi, Tahani

    2017-08-15

    Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic tests is crucial in many application areas including medicine, machine learning and credit scoring. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a useful tool to assess the ability of a diagnostic test to discriminate between two classes or groups. In practice, multiple diagnostic tests or biomarkers are combined to improve diagnostic accuracy. Often, biomarker measurements are undetectable either below or above the so-called limits of detection (LoD). In this paper, nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for best linear combination of two or more biomarkers subject to limits of detection is presented. NPI is a frequentist statistical method that is explicitly aimed at using few modelling assumptions, enabled through the use of lower and upper probabilities to quantify uncertainty. The NPI lower and upper bounds for the ROC curve subject to limits of detection are derived, where the objective function to maximize is the area under the ROC curve. In addition, the paper discusses the effect of restriction on the linear combination's coefficients on the analysis. Examples are provided to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Machine learning-based methods for prediction of linear B-cell epitopes.

    Wang, Hsin-Wei; Pai, Tun-Wen

    2014-01-01

    B-cell epitope prediction facilitates immunologists in designing peptide-based vaccine, diagnostic test, disease prevention, treatment, and antibody production. In comparison with T-cell epitope prediction, the performance of variable length B-cell epitope prediction is still yet to be satisfied. Fortunately, due to increasingly available verified epitope databases, bioinformaticians could adopt machine learning-based algorithms on all curated data to design an improved prediction tool for biomedical researchers. Here, we have reviewed related epitope prediction papers, especially those for linear B-cell epitope prediction. It should be noticed that a combination of selected propensity scales and statistics of epitope residues with machine learning-based tools formulated a general way for constructing linear B-cell epitope prediction systems. It is also observed from most of the comparison results that the kernel method of support vector machine (SVM) classifier outperformed other machine learning-based approaches. Hence, in this chapter, except reviewing recently published papers, we have introduced the fundamentals of B-cell epitope and SVM techniques. In addition, an example of linear B-cell prediction system based on physicochemical features and amino acid combinations is illustrated in details.

  2. Applications of Kalman filters based on non-linear functions to numerical weather predictions

    G. Galanis

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the use of non-linear functions in classical Kalman filter algorithms on the improvement of regional weather forecasts. The main aim is the implementation of non linear polynomial mappings in a usual linear Kalman filter in order to simulate better non linear problems in numerical weather prediction. In addition, the optimal order of the polynomials applied for such a filter is identified. This work is based on observations and corresponding numerical weather predictions of two meteorological parameters characterized by essential differences in their evolution in time, namely, air temperature and wind speed. It is shown that in both cases, a polynomial of low order is adequate for eliminating any systematic error, while higher order functions lead to instabilities in the filtered results having, at the same time, trivial contribution to the sensitivity of the filter. It is further demonstrated that the filter is independent of the time period and the geographic location of application.

  3. Applications of Kalman filters based on non-linear functions to numerical weather predictions

    G. Galanis

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the use of non-linear functions in classical Kalman filter algorithms on the improvement of regional weather forecasts. The main aim is the implementation of non linear polynomial mappings in a usual linear Kalman filter in order to simulate better non linear problems in numerical weather prediction. In addition, the optimal order of the polynomials applied for such a filter is identified. This work is based on observations and corresponding numerical weather predictions of two meteorological parameters characterized by essential differences in their evolution in time, namely, air temperature and wind speed. It is shown that in both cases, a polynomial of low order is adequate for eliminating any systematic error, while higher order functions lead to instabilities in the filtered results having, at the same time, trivial contribution to the sensitivity of the filter. It is further demonstrated that the filter is independent of the time period and the geographic location of application.

  4. Mixed models for predictive modeling in actuarial science

    Antonio, K.; Zhang, Y.

    2012-01-01

    We start with a general discussion of mixed (also called multilevel) models and continue with illustrating specific (actuarial) applications of this type of models. Technical details on (linear, generalized, non-linear) mixed models follow: model assumptions, specifications, estimation techniques

  5. Non-linear Growth Models in Mplus and SAS

    Grimm, Kevin J.; Ram, Nilam

    2013-01-01

    Non-linear growth curves or growth curves that follow a specified non-linear function in time enable researchers to model complex developmental patterns with parameters that are easily interpretable. In this paper we describe how a variety of sigmoid curves can be fit using the Mplus structural modeling program and the non-linear mixed-effects modeling procedure NLMIXED in SAS. Using longitudinal achievement data collected as part of a study examining the effects of preschool instruction on academic gain we illustrate the procedures for fitting growth models of logistic, Gompertz, and Richards functions. Brief notes regarding the practical benefits, limitations, and choices faced in the fitting and estimation of such models are included. PMID:23882134

  6. Variance Function Partially Linear Single-Index Models1.

    Lian, Heng; Liang, Hua; Carroll, Raymond J

    2015-01-01

    We consider heteroscedastic regression models where the mean function is a partially linear single index model and the variance function depends upon a generalized partially linear single index model. We do not insist that the variance function depend only upon the mean function, as happens in the classical generalized partially linear single index model. We develop efficient and practical estimation methods for the variance function and for the mean function. Asymptotic theory for the parametric and nonparametric parts of the model is developed. Simulations illustrate the results. An empirical example involving ozone levels is used to further illustrate the results, and is shown to be a case where the variance function does not depend upon the mean function.

  7. PREDICTION MODELS OF GRAIN YIELD AND CHARACTERIZATION

    Narciso Ysac Avila Serrano

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available With the objective to characterize the grain yield of five cowpea cultivars and to find linear regression models to predict it, a study was developed in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. A complete randomized blocks design was used. Simple and multivariate analyses of variance were carried out using the canonical variables to characterize the cultivars. The variables cluster per plant, pods per plant, pods per cluster, seeds weight per plant, seeds hectoliter weight, 100-seed weight, seeds length, seeds wide, seeds thickness, pods length, pods wide, pods weight, seeds per pods, and seeds weight per pods, showed significant differences (P≤ 0.05 among cultivars. Paceño and IT90K-277-2 cultivars showed the higher seeds weight per plant. The linear regression models showed correlation coefficients ≥0.92. In these models, the seeds weight per plant, pods per cluster, pods per plant, cluster per plant and pods length showed significant correlations (P≤ 0.05. In conclusion, the results showed that grain yield differ among cultivars and for its estimation, the prediction models showed determination coefficients highly dependable.

  8. Performance Characteristics and Prediction of Bodyweight using Linear Body Measurements in Four Strains of Broiler Chicken

    I. Udeh; J.O. Isikwenu and G. Ukughere

    2011-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to compare the performance characteristics of four strains of broiler chicken from 2 to 8 weeks of age and predict body weight of the broilers using linear body measurements. The four strains of broiler chicken used were Anak, Arbor Acre, Ross and Marshall. The parameters recorded were bodyweight, weight gain, total feed intake, feed conversion ratio, mortality and some linear body measurements (body length, body width, breast width, drumstick length, shank l...

  9. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  10. Phylogenetic mixtures and linear invariants for equal input models.

    Casanellas, Marta; Steel, Mike

    2017-04-01

    The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from molecular sequence data relies on modelling site substitutions by a Markov process, or a mixture of such processes. In general, allowing mixed processes can result in different tree topologies becoming indistinguishable from the data, even for infinitely long sequences. However, when the underlying Markov process supports linear phylogenetic invariants, then provided these are sufficiently informative, the identifiability of the tree topology can be restored. In this paper, we investigate a class of processes that support linear invariants once the stationary distribution is fixed, the 'equal input model'. This model generalizes the 'Felsenstein 1981' model (and thereby the Jukes-Cantor model) from four states to an arbitrary number of states (finite or infinite), and it can also be described by a 'random cluster' process. We describe the structure and dimension of the vector spaces of phylogenetic mixtures and of linear invariants for any fixed phylogenetic tree (and for all trees-the so called 'model invariants'), on any number n of leaves. We also provide a precise description of the space of mixtures and linear invariants for the special case of [Formula: see text] leaves. By combining techniques from discrete random processes and (multi-) linear algebra, our results build on a classic result that was first established by James Lake (Mol Biol Evol 4:167-191, 1987).

  11. Non-linear calibration models for near infrared spectroscopy

    Ni, Wangdong; Nørgaard, Lars; Mørup, Morten

    2014-01-01

    by ridge regression (RR). The performance of the different methods is demonstrated by their practical applications using three real-life near infrared (NIR) data sets. Different aspects of the various approaches including computational time, model interpretability, potential over-fitting using the non-linear...... models on linear problems, robustness to small or medium sample sets, and robustness to pre-processing, are discussed. The results suggest that GPR and BANN are powerful and promising methods for handling linear as well as nonlinear systems, even when the data sets are moderately small. The LS......-SVM), relevance vector machines (RVM), Gaussian process regression (GPR), artificial neural network (ANN), and Bayesian ANN (BANN). In this comparison, partial least squares (PLS) regression is used as a linear benchmark, while the relationship of the methods is considered in terms of traditional calibration...

  12. Modeling the frequency of opposing left-turn conflicts at signalized intersections using generalized linear regression models.

    Zhang, Xin; Liu, Pan; Chen, Yuguang; Bai, Lu; Wang, Wei

    2014-01-01

    The primary objective of this study was to identify whether the frequency of traffic conflicts at signalized intersections can be modeled. The opposing left-turn conflicts were selected for the development of conflict predictive models. Using data collected at 30 approaches at 20 signalized intersections, the underlying distributions of the conflicts under different traffic conditions were examined. Different conflict-predictive models were developed to relate the frequency of opposing left-turn conflicts to various explanatory variables. The models considered include a linear regression model, a negative binomial model, and separate models developed for four traffic scenarios. The prediction performance of different models was compared. The frequency of traffic conflicts follows a negative binominal distribution. The linear regression model is not appropriate for the conflict frequency data. In addition, drivers behaved differently under different traffic conditions. Accordingly, the effects of conflicting traffic volumes on conflict frequency vary across different traffic conditions. The occurrences of traffic conflicts at signalized intersections can be modeled using generalized linear regression models. The use of conflict predictive models has potential to expand the uses of surrogate safety measures in safety estimation and evaluation.

  13. Estimation and variable selection for generalized additive partial linear models

    Wang, Li

    2011-08-01

    We study generalized additive partial linear models, proposing the use of polynomial spline smoothing for estimation of nonparametric functions, and deriving quasi-likelihood based estimators for the linear parameters. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimators of the parametric components. The procedure avoids solving large systems of equations as in kernel-based procedures and thus results in gains in computational simplicity. We further develop a class of variable selection procedures for the linear parameters by employing a nonconcave penalized quasi-likelihood, which is shown to have an asymptotic oracle property. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example are presented for illustration. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2011.

  14. Linear regression

    Olive, David J

    2017-01-01

    This text covers both multiple linear regression and some experimental design models. The text uses the response plot to visualize the model and to detect outliers, does not assume that the error distribution has a known parametric distribution, develops prediction intervals that work when the error distribution is unknown, suggests bootstrap hypothesis tests that may be useful for inference after variable selection, and develops prediction regions and large sample theory for the multivariate linear regression model that has m response variables. A relationship between multivariate prediction regions and confidence regions provides a simple way to bootstrap confidence regions. These confidence regions often provide a practical method for testing hypotheses. There is also a chapter on generalized linear models and generalized additive models. There are many R functions to produce response and residual plots, to simulate prediction intervals and hypothesis tests, to detect outliers, and to choose response trans...

  15. Linear regression models for quantitative assessment of left ...

    Changes in left ventricular structures and function have been reported in cardiomyopathies. No prediction models have been established in this environment. This study established regression models for prediction of left ventricular structures in normal subjects. A sample of normal subjects was drawn from a large urban ...

  16. Wavelet-linear genetic programming: A new approach for modeling monthly streamflow

    Ravansalar, Masoud; Rajaee, Taher; Kisi, Ozgur

    2017-06-01

    The streamflows are important and effective factors in stream ecosystems and its accurate prediction is an essential and important issue in water resources and environmental engineering systems. A hybrid wavelet-linear genetic programming (WLGP) model, which includes a discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and a linear genetic programming (LGP) to predict the monthly streamflow (Q) in two gauging stations, Pataveh and Shahmokhtar, on the Beshar River at the Yasuj, Iran were used in this study. In the proposed WLGP model, the wavelet analysis was linked to the LGP model where the original time series of streamflow were decomposed into the sub-time series comprising wavelet coefficients. The results were compared with the single LGP, artificial neural network (ANN), a hybrid wavelet-ANN (WANN) and Multi Linear Regression (MLR) models. The comparisons were done by some of the commonly utilized relevant physical statistics. The Nash coefficients (E) were found as 0.877 and 0.817 for the WLGP model, for the Pataveh and Shahmokhtar stations, respectively. The comparison of the results showed that the WLGP model could significantly increase the streamflow prediction accuracy in both stations. Since, the results demonstrate a closer approximation of the peak streamflow values by the WLGP model, this model could be utilized for the simulation of cumulative streamflow data prediction in one month ahead.

  17. Matrix model and time-like linear dila ton matter

    Takayanagi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    We consider a matrix model description of the 2d string theory whose matter part is given by a time-like linear dilaton CFT. This is equivalent to the c=1 matrix model with a deformed, but very simple Fermi surface. Indeed, after a Lorentz transformation, the corresponding 2d spacetime is a conventional linear dila ton background with a time-dependent tachyon field. We show that the tree level scattering amplitudes in the matrix model perfectly agree with those computed in the world-sheet theory. The classical trajectories of fermions correspond to the decaying D-boranes in the time-like linear dilaton CFT. We also discuss the ground ring structure. Furthermore, we study the properties of the time-like Liouville theory by applying this matrix model description. We find that its ground ring structure is very similar to that of the minimal string. (author)

  18. Vortices, semi-local vortices in gauged linear sigma model

    Kim, Namkwon

    1998-11-01

    We consider the static (2+1)D gauged linear sigma model. By analyzing the governing system of partial differential equations, we investigate various aspects of the model. We show the existence of energy finite vortices under a partially broken symmetry on R 2 with the necessary condition suggested by Y. Yang. We also introduce generalized semi-local vortices and show the existence of energy finite semi-local vortices under a certain condition. The vacuum manifold for the semi-local vortices turns out to be graded. Besides, with a special choice of a representation, we show that the O(3) sigma model of which target space is nonlinear is a singular limit of the gauged linear sigma model of which target space is linear. (author)

  19. TENSOR DECOMPOSITIONS AND SPARSE LOG-LINEAR MODELS

    Johndrow, James E.; Bhattacharya, Anirban; Dunson, David B.

    2017-01-01

    Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. We derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions. PMID:29332971

  20. Linear mixed models a practical guide using statistical software

    West, Brady T; Galecki, Andrzej T

    2006-01-01

    Simplifying the often confusing array of software programs for fitting linear mixed models (LMMs), Linear Mixed Models: A Practical Guide Using Statistical Software provides a basic introduction to primary concepts, notation, software implementation, model interpretation, and visualization of clustered and longitudinal data. This easy-to-navigate reference details the use of procedures for fitting LMMs in five popular statistical software packages: SAS, SPSS, Stata, R/S-plus, and HLM. The authors introduce basic theoretical concepts, present a heuristic approach to fitting LMMs based on bo

  1. Effect of linear and non-linear blade modelling techniques on simulated fatigue and extreme loads using Bladed

    Beardsell, Alec; Collier, William; Han, Tao

    2016-09-01

    There is a trend in the wind industry towards ever larger and more flexible turbine blades. Blade tip deflections in modern blades now commonly exceed 10% of blade length. Historically, the dynamic response of wind turbine blades has been analysed using linear models of blade deflection which include the assumption of small deflections. For modern flexible blades, this assumption is becoming less valid. In order to continue to simulate dynamic turbine performance accurately, routine use of non-linear models of blade deflection may be required. This can be achieved by representing the blade as a connected series of individual flexible linear bodies - referred to in this paper as the multi-part approach. In this paper, Bladed is used to compare load predictions using single-part and multi-part blade models for several turbines. The study examines the impact on fatigue and extreme loads and blade deflection through reduced sets of load calculations based on IEC 61400-1 ed. 3. Damage equivalent load changes of up to 16% and extreme load changes of up to 29% are observed at some turbine load locations. It is found that there is no general pattern in the loading differences observed between single-part and multi-part blade models. Rather, changes in fatigue and extreme loads with a multi-part blade model depend on the characteristics of the individual turbine and blade. Key underlying causes of damage equivalent load change are identified as differences in edgewise- torsional coupling between the multi-part and single-part models, and increased edgewise rotor mode damping in the multi-part model. Similarly, a causal link is identified between torsional blade dynamics and changes in ultimate load results.

  2. Augmented chaos-multiple linear regression approach for prediction of wave parameters

    M.A. Ghorbani

    2017-06-01

    The inter-comparisons demonstrated that the Chaos-MLR and pure MLR models yield almost the same accuracy in predicting the significant wave heights and the zero-up-crossing wave periods. Whereas, the augmented Chaos-MLR model is performed better results in term of the prediction accuracy vis-a-vis the previous prediction applications of the same case study.

  3. Chaos and loss of predictability in the periodically kicked linear oscillator

    Luna-Acosta, G.A.; Cantoral, E.

    1989-01-01

    Chernikov et.al. [2] have discovered new features in the dynamics of a periodically kicked LHO x'' + ω 0 2 x = ( K/ k 0 T 2 ) sin (k 0 x) x Σ n δ (t / T - n). They report that its phase space motion under exact resonance (p ω 0 = (2 π / T) q; p, q integers), and with initial conditions on the separatrix of the average Hamiltonian , accelerates unboundedly along a fractal stochastic web with q-fold symmetry. Here we investigate with numerical experiments the effects of small deviations from exact resonance on the diffusion and symmetry patterns. We show graphically that the stochastic webs are (topologically) unstable and thus the unbounded motion becomes considerably truncated. Moreover, we analyze numerically and analytically a simpler (integrable) version. We give its exact closed-form solution in complex numbers, realize that it accelerates unboundedly only when ω 0 = (2 π/T) q (q = ± 1,2,...), and show that for small uncertainties in these frequencies, total predictability is lost as time evolves. That is, trajectories of a set of systems, initially described by close neighboring points in phase space strongly diverge in a non-linear way. The great loss of predictability in the integrable model is due to the combination of translational and rotational symmetries, inherent in these systems. (Author)

  4. Chaos and loss of predictability in the periodically kicked linear oscillator

    Luna-Acosta, G A [Universidad Autonoma de Puebla (Mexico). Inst. de Ciencias; Cantoral, E [Universidad Autonoma de Puebla (Mexico). Escuela de Fisica

    1989-01-01

    Chernikov et.al. [2] have discovered new features in the dynamics of a periodically kicked LHO x'' + [omega] [sub 0] [sup 2] x = ( K/ k[sub 0] T [sup 2]) sin (k[sub 0] x) x [Sigma][sub n] [delta] (t / T - n). They report that its phase space motion under exact resonance (p [omega] [sub 0] = (2 [pi] / T) q; p, q integers), and with initial conditions on the separatrix of the average Hamiltonian , accelerates unboundedly along a fractal stochastic web with q-fold symmetry. Here we investigate with numerical experiments the effects of small deviations from exact resonance on the diffusion and symmetry patterns. We show graphically that the stochastic webs are (topologically) unstable and thus the unbounded motion becomes considerably truncated. Moreover, we analyze numerically and analytically a simpler (integrable) version. We give its exact closed-form solution in complex numbers, realize that it accelerates unboundedly only when [omega][sub 0] = (2 [pi]/T) q (q = [+-] 1,2,...), and show that for small uncertainties in these frequencies, total predictability is lost as time evolves. That is, trajectories of a set of systems, initially described by close neighboring points in phase space strongly diverge in a non-linear way. The great loss of predictability in the integrable model is due to the combination of translational and rotational symmetries, inherent in these systems. (Author).

  5. Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

    Masoud Kheradmandi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

  6. Seasonal Variability of Aragonite Saturation State in the North Pacific Ocean Predicted by Multiple Linear Regression

    Kim, T. W.; Park, G. H.

    2014-12-01

    Seasonal variation of aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) in the North Pacific Ocean (NPO) was investigated, using multiple linear regression (MLR) models produced from the PACIFICA (Pacific Ocean interior carbon) dataset. Data within depth ranges of 50-1200m were used to derive MLR models, and three parameters (potential temperature, nitrate, and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU)) were chosen as predictor variables because these parameters are associated with vertical mixing, DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon) removal and release which all affect Ωarag in water column directly or indirectly. The PACIFICA dataset was divided into 5° × 5° grids, and a MLR model was produced in each grid, giving total 145 independent MLR models over the NPO. Mean RMSE (root mean square error) and r2 (coefficient of determination) of all derived MLR models were approximately 0.09 and 0.96, respectively. Then the obtained MLR coefficients for each of predictor variables and an intercept were interpolated over the study area, thereby making possible to allocate MLR coefficients to data-sparse ocean regions. Predictability from the interpolated coefficients was evaluated using Hawaiian time-series data, and as a result mean residual between measured and predicted Ωarag values was approximately 0.08, which is less than the mean RMSE of our MLR models. The interpolated MLR coefficients were combined with seasonal climatology of World Ocean Atlas 2013 (1° × 1°) to produce seasonal Ωarag distributions over various depths. Large seasonal variability in Ωarag was manifested in the mid-latitude Western NPO (24-40°N, 130-180°E) and low-latitude Eastern NPO (0-12°N, 115-150°W). In the Western NPO, seasonal fluctuations of water column stratification appeared to be responsible for the seasonal variation in Ωarag (~ 0.5 at 50 m) because it closely followed temperature variations in a layer of 0-75 m. In contrast, remineralization of organic matter was the main cause for the seasonal

  7. Inverse Modelling Problems in Linear Algebra Undergraduate Courses

    Martinez-Luaces, Victor E.

    2013-01-01

    This paper will offer an analysis from a theoretical point of view of mathematical modelling, applications and inverse problems of both causation and specification types. Inverse modelling problems give the opportunity to establish connections between theory and practice and to show this fact, a simple linear algebra example in two different…

  8. Optical linear algebra processors - Noise and error-source modeling

    Casasent, D.; Ghosh, A.

    1985-01-01

    The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAPs) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.

  9. Optical linear algebra processors: noise and error-source modeling.

    Casasent, D; Ghosh, A

    1985-06-01

    The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAP's) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.

  10. CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE FINITE ELEMENT MODELING OF LINEAR ULTRASONIC MOTORS

    Oana CHIVU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The present paper is concerned with the main modeling elements as produced by means of thefinite element method of linear ultrasonic motors. Hence, first the model is designed and then a modaland harmonic analysis are carried out in view of outlining the main outcomes

  11. Linear and Nonlinear Career Models: Metaphors, Paradigms, and Ideologies.

    Buzzanell, Patrice M.; Goldzwig, Steven R.

    1991-01-01

    Examines the linear or bureaucratic career models (dominant in career research, metaphors, paradigms, and ideologies) which maintain career myths of flexibility and individualized routes to success in organizations incapable of offering such versatility. Describes nonlinear career models which offer suggestive metaphors for re-visioning careers…

  12. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

    2017-11-01

    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  13. Stable 1-Norm Error Minimization Based Linear Predictors for Speech Modeling

    Giacobello, Daniele; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Jensen, Tobias Lindstrøm

    2014-01-01

    In linear prediction of speech, the 1-norm error minimization criterion has been shown to provide a valid alternative to the 2-norm minimization criterion. However, unlike 2-norm minimization, 1-norm minimization does not guarantee the stability of the corresponding all-pole filter and can generate...... saturations when this is used to synthesize speech. In this paper, we introduce two new methods to obtain intrinsically stable predictors with the 1-norm minimization. The first method is based on constraining the roots of the predictor to lie within the unit circle by reducing the numerical range...... based linear prediction for modeling and coding of speech....

  14. Asymptotic analysis of a stochastic non-linear nuclear reactor model

    Rodriguez, M.A.; Sancho, J.M.

    1986-01-01

    The asymptotic behaviour of a stochastic non-linear nuclear reactor modelled by a master equation is analysed in two different limits: the thermodynamic limit and the zero-neutron-source limit. In the first limit a finite steady neutron density is obtained. The second limit predicts the neutron extinction. The interplay between these two limits is studied for different situations. (author)

  15. Low-energy limit of the extended Linear Sigma Model

    Divotgey, Florian [Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Kovacs, Peter [Wigner Research Center for Physics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute for Particle and Nuclear Physics, Budapest (Hungary); GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung, ExtreMe Matter Institute, Darmstadt (Germany); Giacosa, Francesco [Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Jan-Kochanowski University, Institute of Physics, Kielce (Poland); Rischke, Dirk H. [Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); University of Science and Technology of China, Interdisciplinary Center for Theoretical Study and Department of Modern Physics, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2018-01-15

    The extended Linear Sigma Model is an effective hadronic model based on the linear realization of chiral symmetry SU(N{sub f}){sub L} x SU(N{sub f}){sub R}, with (pseudo)scalar and (axial-)vector mesons as degrees of freedom. In this paper, we study the low-energy limit of the extended Linear Sigma Model (eLSM) for N{sub f} = flavors by integrating out all fields except for the pions, the (pseudo-)Nambu-Goldstone bosons of chiral symmetry breaking. The resulting low-energy effective action is identical to Chiral Perturbation Theory (ChPT) after choosing a representative for the coset space generated by chiral symmetry breaking and expanding it in powers of (derivatives of) the pion fields. The tree-level values of the coupling constants of the effective low-energy action agree remarkably well with those of ChPT. (orig.)

  16. Linear Power-Flow Models in Multiphase Distribution Networks: Preprint

    Bernstein, Andrey; Dall' Anese, Emiliano

    2017-05-26

    This paper considers multiphase unbalanced distribution systems and develops approximate power-flow models where bus-voltages, line-currents, and powers at the point of common coupling are linearly related to the nodal net power injections. The linearization approach is grounded on a fixed-point interpretation of the AC power-flow equations, and it is applicable to distribution systems featuring (i) wye connections; (ii) ungrounded delta connections; (iii) a combination of wye-connected and delta-connected sources/loads; and, (iv) a combination of line-to-line and line-to-grounded-neutral devices at the secondary of distribution transformers. The proposed linear models can facilitate the development of computationally-affordable optimization and control applications -- from advanced distribution management systems settings to online and distributed optimization routines. Performance of the proposed models is evaluated on different test feeders.

  17. Integrating genomics and proteomics data to predict drug effects using binary linear programming.

    Ji, Zhiwei; Su, Jing; Liu, Chenglin; Wang, Hongyan; Huang, Deshuang; Zhou, Xiaobo

    2014-01-01

    The Library of Integrated Network-Based Cellular Signatures (LINCS) project aims to create a network-based understanding of biology by cataloging changes in gene expression and signal transduction that occur when cells are exposed to a variety of perturbations. It is helpful for understanding cell pathways and facilitating drug discovery. Here, we developed a novel approach to infer cell-specific pathways and identify a compound's effects using gene expression and phosphoproteomics data under treatments with different compounds. Gene expression data were employed to infer potential targets of compounds and create a generic pathway map. Binary linear programming (BLP) was then developed to optimize the generic pathway topology based on the mid-stage signaling response of phosphorylation. To demonstrate effectiveness of this approach, we built a generic pathway map for the MCF7 breast cancer cell line and inferred the cell-specific pathways by BLP. The first group of 11 compounds was utilized to optimize the generic pathways, and then 4 compounds were used to identify effects based on the inferred cell-specific pathways. Cross-validation indicated that the cell-specific pathways reliably predicted a compound's effects. Finally, we applied BLP to re-optimize the cell-specific pathways to predict the effects of 4 compounds (trichostatin A, MS-275, staurosporine, and digoxigenin) according to compound-induced topological alterations. Trichostatin A and MS-275 (both HDAC inhibitors) inhibited the downstream pathway of HDAC1 and caused cell growth arrest via activation of p53 and p21; the effects of digoxigenin were totally opposite. Staurosporine blocked the cell cycle via p53 and p21, but also promoted cell growth via activated HDAC1 and its downstream pathway. Our approach was also applied to the PC3 prostate cancer cell line, and the cross-validation analysis showed very good accuracy in predicting effects of 4 compounds. In summary, our computational model can be

  18. The minimal linear σ model for the Goldstone Higgs

    Feruglio, F.; Gavela, M.B.; Kanshin, K.; Machado, P.A.N.; Rigolin, S.; Saa, S.

    2016-01-01

    In the context of the minimal SO(5) linear σ-model, a complete renormalizable Lagrangian -including gauge bosons and fermions- is considered, with the symmetry softly broken to SO(4). The scalar sector describes both the electroweak Higgs doublet and the singlet σ. Varying the σ mass would allow to sweep from the regime of perturbative ultraviolet completion to the non-linear one assumed in models in which the Higgs particle is a low-energy remnant of some strong dynamics. We analyze the phenomenological implications and constraints from precision observables and LHC data. Furthermore, we derive the d≤6 effective Lagrangian in the limit of heavy exotic fermions.

  19. A variational formulation for linear models in coupled dynamic thermoelasticity

    Feijoo, R.A.; Moura, C.A. de.

    1981-07-01

    A variational formulation for linear models in coupled dynamic thermoelasticity which quite naturally motivates the design of a numerical scheme for the problem, is studied. When linked to regularization or penalization techniques, this algorithm may be applied to more general models, namely, the ones that consider non-linear constraints associated to variational inequalities. The basic postulates of Mechanics and Thermodynamics as well as some well-known mathematical techniques are described. A thorough description of the algorithm implementation with the finite-element method is also provided. Proofs for existence and uniqueness of solutions and for convergence of the approximations are presented, and some numerical results are exhibited. (Author) [pt

  20. Variables Predicting Foreign Language Reading Comprehension and Vocabulary Acquisition in a Linear Hypermedia Environment

    Akbulut, Yavuz

    2007-01-01

    Factors predicting vocabulary learning and reading comprehension of advanced language learners of English in a linear multimedia text were investigated in the current study. Predictor variables of interest were multimedia type, reading proficiency, learning styles, topic interest and background knowledge about the topic. The outcome variables of…

  1. Reflexion on linear regression trip production modelling method for ensuring good model quality

    Suprayitno, Hitapriya; Ratnasari, Vita

    2017-11-01

    Transport Modelling is important. For certain cases, the conventional model still has to be used, in which having a good trip production model is capital. A good model can only be obtained from a good sample. Two of the basic principles of a good sampling is having a sample capable to represent the population characteristics and capable to produce an acceptable error at a certain confidence level. It seems that this principle is not yet quite understood and used in trip production modeling. Therefore, investigating the Trip Production Modelling practice in Indonesia and try to formulate a better modeling method for ensuring the Model Quality is necessary. This research result is presented as follows. Statistics knows a method to calculate span of prediction value at a certain confidence level for linear regression, which is called Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. The common modeling practice uses R2 as the principal quality measure, the sampling practice varies and not always conform to the sampling principles. An experiment indicates that small sample is already capable to give excellent R2 value and sample composition can significantly change the model. Hence, good R2 value, in fact, does not always mean good model quality. These lead to three basic ideas for ensuring good model quality, i.e. reformulating quality measure, calculation procedure, and sampling method. A quality measure is defined as having a good R2 value and a good Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. Calculation procedure must incorporate statistical calculation method and appropriate statistical tests needed. A good sampling method must incorporate random well distributed stratified sampling with a certain minimum number of samples. These three ideas need to be more developed and tested.

  2. Comparison of linear, mixed integer and non-linear programming methods in energy system dispatch modelling

    Ommen, Torben Schmidt; Markussen, Wiebke Brix; Elmegaard, Brian

    2014-01-01

    In the paper, three frequently used operation optimisation methods are examined with respect to their impact on operation management of the combined utility technologies for electric power and DH (district heating) of eastern Denmark. The investigation focusses on individual plant operation...... differences and differences between the solution found by each optimisation method. One of the investigated approaches utilises LP (linear programming) for optimisation, one uses LP with binary operation constraints, while the third approach uses NLP (non-linear programming). The LP model is used...... as a benchmark, as this type is frequently used, and has the lowest amount of constraints of the three. A comparison of the optimised operation of a number of units shows significant differences between the three methods. Compared to the reference, the use of binary integer variables, increases operation...

  3. Defining a Family of Cognitive Diagnosis Models Using Log-Linear Models with Latent Variables

    Henson, Robert A.; Templin, Jonathan L.; Willse, John T.

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses log-linear models with latent variables (Hagenaars, in "Loglinear Models with Latent Variables," 1993) to define a family of cognitive diagnosis models. In doing so, the relationship between many common models is explicitly defined and discussed. In addition, because the log-linear model with latent variables is a general model for…

  4. Functional linear models for association analysis of quantitative traits.

    Fan, Ruzong; Wang, Yifan; Mills, James L; Wilson, Alexander F; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Xiong, Momiao

    2013-11-01

    Functional linear models are developed in this paper for testing associations between quantitative traits and genetic variants, which can be rare variants or common variants or the combination of the two. By treating multiple genetic variants of an individual in a human population as a realization of a stochastic process, the genome of an individual in a chromosome region is a continuum of sequence data rather than discrete observations. The genome of an individual is viewed as a stochastic function that contains both linkage and linkage disequilibrium (LD) information of the genetic markers. By using techniques of functional data analysis, both fixed and mixed effect functional linear models are built to test the association between quantitative traits and genetic variants adjusting for covariates. After extensive simulation analysis, it is shown that the F-distributed tests of the proposed fixed effect functional linear models have higher power than that of sequence kernel association test (SKAT) and its optimal unified test (SKAT-O) for three scenarios in most cases: (1) the causal variants are all rare, (2) the causal variants are both rare and common, and (3) the causal variants are common. The superior performance of the fixed effect functional linear models is most likely due to its optimal utilization of both genetic linkage and LD information of multiple genetic variants in a genome and similarity among different individuals, while SKAT and SKAT-O only model the similarities and pairwise LD but do not model linkage and higher order LD information sufficiently. In addition, the proposed fixed effect models generate accurate type I error rates in simulation studies. We also show that the functional kernel score tests of the proposed mixed effect functional linear models are preferable in candidate gene analysis and small sample problems. The methods are applied to analyze three biochemical traits in data from the Trinity Students Study. © 2013 WILEY

  5. Prediction of failures in linear systems with the use of tolerance ranges

    Gadzhiev, Ch.M.

    1993-01-01

    The problem of predicting the technical state of an object can be stated in a general case as that of predicting potential failures on the basis of a quantitative evaluation of the predicted parameters in relation to the set of tolerances on these parameters. The main stages in the prediction are collecting and preparing source data on the prehistory of the predicted phenomenon, forming a mathematical model of this phenomenon, working out the algorithm for the prediction, and adopting a solution from the prediction results. The final two stages of prediction are considered in this article. The prediction algorithm is proposed based on construction of the tolerance range for the signal of error between output coordinates of the system and its mathematical model. A solution regarding possible occurrence of failure in the system is formulated as a result of comparison of the tolerance range and the found confidence interval. 5 refs

  6. Quasi-closed phase forward-backward linear prediction analysis of speech for accurate formant detection and estimation.

    Gowda, Dhananjaya; Airaksinen, Manu; Alku, Paavo

    2017-09-01

    Recently, a quasi-closed phase (QCP) analysis of speech signals for accurate glottal inverse filtering was proposed. However, the QCP analysis which belongs to the family of temporally weighted linear prediction (WLP) methods uses the conventional forward type of sample prediction. This may not be the best choice especially in computing WLP models with a hard-limiting weighting function. A sample selective minimization of the prediction error in WLP reduces the effective number of samples available within a given window frame. To counter this problem, a modified quasi-closed phase forward-backward (QCP-FB) analysis is proposed, wherein each sample is predicted based on its past as well as future samples thereby utilizing the available number of samples more effectively. Formant detection and estimation experiments on synthetic vowels generated using a physical modeling approach as well as natural speech utterances show that the proposed QCP-FB method yields statistically significant improvements over the conventional linear prediction and QCP methods.

  7. Practical likelihood analysis for spatial generalized linear mixed models

    Bonat, W. H.; Ribeiro, Paulo Justiniano

    2016-01-01

    We investigate an algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of spatial generalized linear mixed models based on the Laplace approximation. We compare our algorithm with a set of alternative approaches for two datasets from the literature. The Rhizoctonia root rot and the Rongelap are......, respectively, examples of binomial and count datasets modeled by spatial generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the Laplace approximation provides similar estimates to Markov Chain Monte Carlo likelihood, Monte Carlo expectation maximization, and modified Laplace approximation. Some advantages...... of Laplace approximation include the computation of the maximized log-likelihood value, which can be used for model selection and tests, and the possibility to obtain realistic confidence intervals for model parameters based on profile likelihoods. The Laplace approximation also avoids the tuning...

  8. Stochastic modeling of mode interactions via linear parabolized stability equations

    Ran, Wei; Zare, Armin; Hack, M. J. Philipp; Jovanovic, Mihailo

    2017-11-01

    Low-complexity approximations of the Navier-Stokes equations have been widely used in the analysis of wall-bounded shear flows. In particular, the parabolized stability equations (PSE) and Floquet theory have been employed to capture the evolution of primary and secondary instabilities in spatially-evolving flows. We augment linear PSE with Floquet analysis to formally treat modal interactions and the evolution of secondary instabilities in the transitional boundary layer via a linear progression. To this end, we leverage Floquet theory by incorporating the primary instability into the base flow and accounting for different harmonics in the flow state. A stochastic forcing is introduced into the resulting linear dynamics to model the effect of nonlinear interactions on the evolution of modes. We examine the H-type transition scenario to demonstrate how our approach can be used to model nonlinear effects and capture the growth of the fundamental and subharmonic modes observed in direct numerical simulations and experiments.

  9. FPGA implementation of predictive degradation model for engine oil lifetime

    Idros, M. F. M.; Razak, A. H. A.; Junid, S. A. M. Al; Suliman, S. I.; Halim, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the implementation of linear regression model for degradation prediction on Register Transfer Logic (RTL) using QuartusII. A stationary model had been identified in the degradation trend for the engine oil in a vehicle in time series method. As for RTL implementation, the degradation model is written in Verilog HDL and the data input are taken at a certain time. Clock divider had been designed to support the timing sequence of input data. At every five data, a regression analysis is adapted for slope variation determination and prediction calculation. Here, only the negative value are taken as the consideration for the prediction purposes for less number of logic gate. Least Square Method is adapted to get the best linear model based on the mean values of time series data. The coded algorithm has been implemented on FPGA for validation purposes. The result shows the prediction time to change the engine oil.

  10. Predictive ability of boiler production models | Ogundu | Animal ...

    The weekly body weight measurements of a growing strain of Ross broiler were used to compare the of ability of three mathematical models (the multi, linear, quadratic and Exponential) to predict 8 week body weight from early body measurements at weeks I, II, III, IV, V, VI and VII. The results suggest that the three models ...

  11. Linear modeling of possible mechanisms for parkinson tremor generation

    Lohnberg, P.

    1978-01-01

    The power of Parkinson tremor is expressed in terms of possibly changed frequency response functions between relevant variables in the neuromuscular system. The derivation starts out from a linear loopless equivalent model of mechanisms for general tremor generation. Hypothetical changes in this

  12. Current algebra of classical non-linear sigma models

    Forger, M.; Laartz, J.; Schaeper, U.

    1992-01-01

    The current algebra of classical non-linear sigma models on arbitrary Riemannian manifolds is analyzed. It is found that introducing, in addition to the Noether current j μ associated with the global symmetry of the theory, a composite scalar field j, the algebra closes under Poisson brackets. (orig.)

  13. Mathematical modelling and linear stability analysis of laser fusion cutting

    Hermanns, Torsten; Schulz, Wolfgang; Vossen, Georg; Thombansen, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    A model for laser fusion cutting is presented and investigated by linear stability analysis in order to study the tendency for dynamic behavior and subsequent ripple formation. The result is a so called stability function that describes the correlation of the setting values of the process and the process’ amount of dynamic behavior.

  14. Non Linear signa models probing the string structure

    Abdalla, E.

    1987-01-01

    The introduction of a term depending on the extrinsic curvature to the string action, and related non linear sigma models defined on a symmetric space SO(D)/SO(2) x SO(d-2) is descussed . Coupling to fermions are also treated. (author) [pt

  15. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  16. Penalized Estimation in Large-Scale Generalized Linear Array Models

    Lund, Adam; Vincent, Martin; Hansen, Niels Richard

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale generalized linear array models (GLAMs) can be challenging to fit. Computation and storage of its tensor product design matrix can be impossible due to time and memory constraints, and previously considered design matrix free algorithms do not scale well with the dimension...

  17. Expressions for linearized perturbations in ideal-fluid cosmological models

    Ratra, B.

    1988-01-01

    We present closed-form solutions of the relativistic linear perturbation equations (in synchronous gauge) that govern the evolution of inhomogeneities in homogeneous, spatially flat, ideal-fluid, cosmological models. These expressions, which are valid for irregularities on any scale, allow one to analytically interpolate between the known approximate solutions which are valid at early times and at late times

  18. S-AMP for non-linear observation models

    Cakmak, Burak; Winther, Ole; Fleury, Bernard H.

    2015-01-01

    Recently we presented the S-AMP approach, an extension of approximate message passing (AMP), to be able to handle general invariant matrix ensembles. In this contribution we extend S-AMP to non-linear observation models. We obtain generalized AMP (GAMP) as the special case when the measurement...

  19. Plane answers to complex questions the theory of linear models

    Christensen, Ronald

    1987-01-01

    This book was written to rigorously illustrate the practical application of the projective approach to linear models. To some, this may seem contradictory. I contend that it is possible to be both rigorous and illustrative and that it is possible to use the projective approach in practical applications. Therefore, unlike many other books on linear models, the use of projections and sub­ spaces does not stop after the general theory. They are used wherever I could figure out how to do it. Solving normal equations and using calculus (outside of maximum likelihood theory) are anathema to me. This is because I do not believe that they contribute to the understanding of linear models. I have similar feelings about the use of side conditions. Such topics are mentioned when appropriate and thenceforward avoided like the plague. On the other side of the coin, I just as strenuously reject teaching linear models with a coordinate free approach. Although Joe Eaton assures me that the issues in complicated problems freq...

  20. A simulation model of a coordinated decentralized linear supply chain

    Ashayeri, Jalal; Cannella, S.; Lopez Campos, M.; Miranda, P.A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a simulation-based study of a coordinated, decentralized linear supply chain (SC) system. In the proposed model, any supply tier considers its successors as part of its inventory system and generates replenishment orders on the basis of its partners’ operational information. We

  1. Mathematical modelling and linear stability analysis of laser fusion cutting

    Hermanns, Torsten; Schulz, Wolfgang [RWTH Aachen University, Chair for Nonlinear Dynamics, Steinbachstr. 15, 52047 Aachen (Germany); Vossen, Georg [Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences, Chair for Applied Mathematics and Numerical Simulations, Reinarzstr.. 49, 47805 Krefeld (Germany); Thombansen, Ulrich [RWTH Aachen University, Chair for Laser Technology, Steinbachstr. 15, 52047 Aachen (Germany)

    2016-06-08

    A model for laser fusion cutting is presented and investigated by linear stability analysis in order to study the tendency for dynamic behavior and subsequent ripple formation. The result is a so called stability function that describes the correlation of the setting values of the process and the process’ amount of dynamic behavior.

  2. Performances Of Estimators Of Linear Models With Autocorrelated ...

    The performances of five estimators of linear models with Autocorrelated error terms are compared when the independent variable is autoregressive. The results reveal that the properties of the estimators when the sample size is finite is quite similar to the properties of the estimators when the sample size is infinite although ...

  3. Performances of estimators of linear auto-correlated error model ...

    The performances of five estimators of linear models with autocorrelated disturbance terms are compared when the independent variable is exponential. The results reveal that for both small and large samples, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) compares favourably with the Generalized least Squares (GLS) estimators in ...

  4. A non-linear dissipative model of magnetism

    Durand, P.; Paidarová, Ivana

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 89, č. 6 (2010), s. 67004 ISSN 1286-4854 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100400501 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40400503 Keywords : non-linear dissipative model of magnetism * thermodynamics * physical chemistry Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry http://epljournal.edpsciences.org/

  5. Modeling and verifying non-linearities in heterodyne displacement interferometry

    Cosijns, S.J.A.G.; Haitjema, H.; Schellekens, P.H.J.

    2002-01-01

    The non-linearities in a heterodyne laser interferometer system occurring from the phase measurement system of the interferometer andfrom non-ideal polarization effects of the optics are modeled into one analytical expression which includes the initial polarization state ofthe laser source, the

  6. Generalized linear longitudinal mixed models with linear covariance structure and multiplicative random effects

    Holst, René; Jørgensen, Bent

    2015-01-01

    The paper proposes a versatile class of multiplicative generalized linear longitudinal mixed models (GLLMM) with additive dispersion components, based on explicit modelling of the covariance structure. The class incorporates a longitudinal structure into the random effects models and retains...... a marginal as well as a conditional interpretation. The estimation procedure is based on a computationally efficient quasi-score method for the regression parameters combined with a REML-like bias-corrected Pearson estimating function for the dispersion and correlation parameters. This avoids...... the multidimensional integral of the conventional GLMM likelihood and allows an extension of the robust empirical sandwich estimator for use with both association and regression parameters. The method is applied to a set of otholit data, used for age determination of fish....

  7. Internal Physical Features of a Land Surface Model Employing a Tangent Linear Model

    Yang, Runhua; Cohn, Stephen E.; daSilva, Arlindo; Joiner, Joanna; Houser, Paul R.

    1997-01-01

    The Earth's land surface, including its biomass, is an integral part of the Earth's weather and climate system. Land surface heterogeneity, such as the type and amount of vegetative covering., has a profound effect on local weather variability and therefore on regional variations of the global climate. Surface conditions affect local weather and climate through a number of mechanisms. First, they determine the re-distribution of the net radiative energy received at the surface, through the atmosphere, from the sun. A certain fraction of this energy increases the surface ground temperature, another warms the near-surface atmosphere, and the rest evaporates surface water, which in turn creates clouds and causes precipitation. Second, they determine how much rainfall and snowmelt can be stored in the soil and how much instead runs off into waterways. Finally, surface conditions influence the near-surface concentration and distribution of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The processes through which these mechanisms interact with the atmosphere can be modeled mathematically, to within some degree of uncertainty, on the basis of underlying physical principles. Such a land surface model provides predictive capability for surface variables including ground temperature, surface humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. This information is important for agriculture and industry, as well as for addressing fundamental scientific questions concerning global and local climate change. In this study we apply a methodology known as tangent linear modeling to help us understand more deeply, the behavior of the Mosaic land surface model, a model that has been developed over the past several years at NASA/GSFC. This methodology allows us to examine, directly and quantitatively, the dependence of prediction errors in land surface variables upon different vegetation conditions. The work also highlights the importance of accurate soil moisture information. Although surface

  8. Identifiability Results for Several Classes of Linear Compartment Models.

    Meshkat, Nicolette; Sullivant, Seth; Eisenberg, Marisa

    2015-08-01

    Identifiability concerns finding which unknown parameters of a model can be estimated, uniquely or otherwise, from given input-output data. If some subset of the parameters of a model cannot be determined given input-output data, then we say the model is unidentifiable. In this work, we study linear compartment models, which are a class of biological models commonly used in pharmacokinetics, physiology, and ecology. In past work, we used commutative algebra and graph theory to identify a class of linear compartment models that we call identifiable cycle models, which are unidentifiable but have the simplest possible identifiable functions (so-called monomial cycles). Here we show how to modify identifiable cycle models by adding inputs, adding outputs, or removing leaks, in such a way that we obtain an identifiable model. We also prove a constructive result on how to combine identifiable models, each corresponding to strongly connected graphs, into a larger identifiable model. We apply these theoretical results to several real-world biological models from physiology, cell biology, and ecology.

  9. Adaptive rival penalized competitive learning and combined linear predictor model for financial forecast and investment.

    Cheung, Y M; Leung, W M; Xu, L

    1997-01-01

    We propose a prediction model called Rival Penalized Competitive Learning (RPCL) and Combined Linear Predictor method (CLP), which involves a set of local linear predictors such that a prediction is made by the combination of some activated predictors through a gating network (Xu et al., 1994). Furthermore, we present its improved variant named Adaptive RPCL-CLP that includes an adaptive learning mechanism as well as a data pre-and-post processing scheme. We compare them with some existing models by demonstrating their performance on two real-world financial time series--a China stock price and an exchange-rate series of US Dollar (USD) versus Deutschmark (DEM). Experiments have shown that Adaptive RPCL-CLP not only outperforms the other approaches with the smallest prediction error and training costs, but also brings in considerable high profits in the trading simulation of foreign exchange market.

  10. Finite element modeling of nanotube structures linear and non-linear models

    Awang, Mokhtar; Muhammad, Ibrahim Dauda

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a new approach to modeling carbon structures such as graphene and carbon nanotubes using finite element methods, and addresses the latest advances in numerical studies for these materials. Based on the available findings, the book develops an effective finite element approach for modeling the structure and the deformation of grapheme-based materials. Further, modeling processing for single-walled and multi-walled carbon nanotubes is demonstrated in detail.

  11. Linear Dynamics Model for Steam Cooled Fast Power Reactors

    Vollmer, H

    1968-04-15

    A linear analytical dynamic model is developed for steam cooled fast power reactors. All main components of such a plant are investigated on a general though relatively simple basis. The model is distributed in those parts concerning the core but lumped as to the external plant components. Coolant is considered as compressible and treated by the actual steam law. Combined use of analogue and digital computer seems most attractive.

  12. Deterministic operations research models and methods in linear optimization

    Rader, David J

    2013-01-01

    Uniquely blends mathematical theory and algorithm design for understanding and modeling real-world problems Optimization modeling and algorithms are key components to problem-solving across various fields of research, from operations research and mathematics to computer science and engineering. Addressing the importance of the algorithm design process. Deterministic Operations Research focuses on the design of solution methods for both continuous and discrete linear optimization problems. The result is a clear-cut resource for understanding three cornerstones of deterministic operations resear

  13. One-loop dimensional reduction of the linear σ model

    Malbouisson, A.P.C.; Silva-Neto, M.B.; Svaiter, N.F.

    1997-05-01

    We perform the dimensional reduction of the linear σ model at one-loop level. The effective of the reduced theory obtained from the integration over the nonzero Matsubara frequencies is exhibited. Thermal mass and coupling constant renormalization constants are given, as well as the thermal renormalization group which controls the dependence of the counterterms on the temperature. We also recover, for the reduced theory, the vacuum instability of the model for large N. (author)

  14. Modeling the Non-Linear Response of Fiber-Reinforced Laminates Using a Combined Damage/Plasticity Model

    Schuecker, Clara; Davila, Carlos G.; Pettermann, Heinz E.

    2008-01-01

    The present work is concerned with modeling the non-linear response of fiber reinforced polymer laminates. Recent experimental data suggests that the non-linearity is not only caused by matrix cracking but also by matrix plasticity due to shear stresses. To capture the effects of those two mechanisms, a model combining a plasticity formulation with continuum damage has been developed to simulate the non-linear response of laminates under plane stress states. The model is used to compare the predicted behavior of various laminate lay-ups to experimental data from the literature by looking at the degradation of axial modulus and Poisson s ratio of the laminates. The influence of residual curing stresses and in-situ effect on the predicted response is also investigated. It is shown that predictions of the combined damage/plasticity model, in general, correlate well with the experimental data. The test data shows that there are two different mechanisms that can have opposite effects on the degradation of the laminate Poisson s ratio which is captured correctly by the damage/plasticity model. Residual curing stresses are found to have a minor influence on the predicted response for the cases considered here. Some open questions remain regarding the prediction of damage onset.

  15. Available pressure amplitude of linear compressor based on phasor triangle model

    Duan, C. X.; Jiang, X.; Zhi, X. Q.; You, X. K.; Qiu, L. M.

    2017-12-01

    The linear compressor for cryocoolers possess the advantages of long-life operation, high efficiency, low vibration and compact structure. It is significant to study the match mechanisms between the compressor and the cold finger, which determines the working efficiency of the cryocooler. However, the output characteristics of linear compressor are complicated since it is affected by many interacting parameters. The existing matching methods are simplified and mainly focus on the compressor efficiency and output acoustic power, while neglecting the important output parameter of pressure amplitude. In this study, a phasor triangle model basing on analyzing the forces of the piston is proposed. It can be used to predict not only the output acoustic power, the efficiency, but also the pressure amplitude of the linear compressor. Calculated results agree well with the measurement results of the experiment. By this phasor triangle model, the theoretical maximum output pressure amplitude of the linear compressor can be calculated simply based on a known charging pressure and operating frequency. Compared with the mechanical and electrical model of the linear compressor, the new model can provide an intuitionistic understanding on the match mechanism with faster computational process. The model can also explain the experimental phenomenon of the proportional relationship between the output pressure amplitude and the piston displacement in experiments. By further model analysis, such phenomenon is confirmed as an expression of the unmatched design of the compressor. The phasor triangle model may provide an alternative method for the compressor design and matching with the cold finger.

  16. A linearized dispersion relation for orthorhombic pseudo-acoustic modeling

    Song, Xiaolei; Alkhalifah, Tariq Ali

    2012-01-01

    Wavefield extrapolation in acoustic orthorhombic anisotropic media suffers from wave-mode coupling and stability limitations in the parameter range. We introduce a linearized form of the dispersion relation for acoustic orthorhombic media to model acoustic wavefields. We apply the lowrank approximation approach to handle the corresponding space-wavenumber mixed-domain operator. Numerical experiments show that the proposed wavefield extrapolator is accurate and practically free of dispersions. Further, there is no coupling of qSv and qP waves, because we use the analytical dispersion relation. No constraints on Thomsen's parameters are required for stability. The linearized expression may provide useful application for parameter estimation in orthorhombic media.

  17. Non-linear sigma model on the fuzzy supersphere

    Kurkcuoglu, Seckin

    2004-01-01

    In this note we develop fuzzy versions of the supersymmetric non-linear sigma model on the supersphere S (2,2) . In hep-th/0212133 Bott projectors have been used to obtain the fuzzy C P 1 model. Our approach utilizes the use of supersymmetric extensions of these projectors. Here we obtain these (super)-projectors and quantize them in a fashion similar to the one given in hep-th/0212133. We discuss the interpretation of the resulting model as a finite dimensional matrix model. (author)

  18. Linearized and Kernelized Sparse Multitask Learning for Predicting Cognitive Outcomes in Alzheimer’s Disease

    Xiaoli Liu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Alzheimer’s disease (AD has been not only the substantial financial burden to the health care system but also the emotional burden to patients and their families. Predicting cognitive performance of subjects from their magnetic resonance imaging (MRI measures and identifying relevant imaging biomarkers are important research topics in the study of Alzheimer’s disease. Recently, the multitask learning (MTL methods with sparsity-inducing norm (e.g., l2,1-norm have been widely studied to select the discriminative feature subset from MRI features by incorporating inherent correlations among multiple clinical cognitive measures. However, these previous works formulate the prediction tasks as a linear regression problem. The major limitation is that they assumed a linear relationship between the MRI features and the cognitive outcomes. Some multikernel-based MTL methods have been proposed and shown better generalization ability due to the nonlinear advantage. We quantify the power of existing linear and nonlinear MTL methods by evaluating their performance on cognitive score prediction of Alzheimer’s disease. Moreover, we extend the traditional l2,1-norm to a more general lql1-norm (q≥1. Experiments on the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database showed that the nonlinear l2,1lq-MKMTL method not only achieved better prediction performance than the state-of-the-art competitive methods but also effectively fused the multimodality data.

  19. Predicting respiratory motion signals for image-guided radiotherapy using multi-step linear methods (MULIN)

    Ernst, Floris; Schweikard, Achim

    2008-01-01

    Forecasting of respiration motion in image-guided radiotherapy requires algorithms that can accurately and efficiently predict target location. Improved methods for respiratory motion forecasting were developed and tested. MULIN, a new family of prediction algorithms based on linear expansions of the prediction error, was developed and tested. Computer-generated data with a prediction horizon of 150 ms was used for testing in simulation experiments. MULIN was compared to Least Mean Squares-based predictors (LMS; normalized LMS, nLMS; wavelet-based multiscale autoregression, wLMS) and a multi-frequency Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) approach. The in vivo performance of the algorithms was tested on data sets of patients who underwent radiotherapy. The new MULIN methods are highly competitive, outperforming the LMS and the EKF prediction algorithms in real-world settings and performing similarly to optimized nLMS and wLMS prediction algorithms. On simulated, periodic data the MULIN algorithms are outperformed only by the EKF approach due to its inherent advantage in predicting periodic signals. In the presence of noise, the MULIN methods significantly outperform all other algorithms. The MULIN family of algorithms is a feasible tool for the prediction of respiratory motion, performing as well as or better than conventional algorithms while requiring significantly lower computational complexity. The MULIN algorithms are of special importance wherever high-speed prediction is required. (orig.)

  20. Predicting respiratory motion signals for image-guided radiotherapy using multi-step linear methods (MULIN)

    Ernst, Floris; Schweikard, Achim [University of Luebeck, Institute for Robotics and Cognitive Systems, Luebeck (Germany)

    2008-06-15

    Forecasting of respiration motion in image-guided radiotherapy requires algorithms that can accurately and efficiently predict target location. Improved methods for respiratory motion forecasting were developed and tested. MULIN, a new family of prediction algorithms based on linear expansions of the prediction error, was developed and tested. Computer-generated data with a prediction horizon of 150 ms was used for testing in simulation experiments. MULIN was compared to Least Mean Squares-based predictors (LMS; normalized LMS, nLMS; wavelet-based multiscale autoregression, wLMS) and a multi-frequency Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) approach. The in vivo performance of the algorithms was tested on data sets of patients who underwent radiotherapy. The new MULIN methods are highly competitive, outperforming the LMS and the EKF prediction algorithms in real-world settings and performing similarly to optimized nLMS and wLMS prediction algorithms. On simulated, periodic data the MULIN algorithms are outperformed only by the EKF approach due to its inherent advantage in predicting periodic signals. In the presence of noise, the MULIN methods significantly outperform all other algorithms. The MULIN family of algorithms is a feasible tool for the prediction of respiratory motion, performing as well as or better than conventional algorithms while requiring significantly lower computational complexity. The MULIN algorithms are of special importance wherever high-speed prediction is required. (orig.)

  1. Data Normalization to Accelerate Training for Linear Neural Net to Predict Tropical Cyclone Tracks

    Jian Jin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available When pure linear neural network (PLNN is used to predict tropical cyclone tracks (TCTs in South China Sea, whether the data is normalized or not greatly affects the training process. In this paper, min.-max. method and normal distribution method, instead of standard normal distribution, are applied to TCT data before modeling. We propose the experimental schemes in which, with min.-max. method, the min.-max. value pair of each variable is mapped to (−1, 1 and (0, 1; with normal distribution method, each variable’s mean and standard deviation pair is set to (0, 1 and (100, 1. We present the following results: (1 data scaled to the similar intervals have similar effects, no matter the use of min.-max. or normal distribution method; (2 mapping data to around 0 gains much faster training speed than mapping them to the intervals far away from 0 or using unnormalized raw data, although all of them can approach the same lower level after certain steps from their training error curves. This could be useful to decide data normalization method when PLNN is used individually.

  2. Optimal difference-based estimation for partially linear models

    Zhou, Yuejin; Cheng, Yebin; Dai, Wenlin; Tong, Tiejun

    2017-01-01

    Difference-based methods have attracted increasing attention for analyzing partially linear models in the recent literature. In this paper, we first propose to solve the optimal sequence selection problem in difference-based estimation for the linear component. To achieve the goal, a family of new sequences and a cross-validation method for selecting the adaptive sequence are proposed. We demonstrate that the existing sequences are only extreme cases in the proposed family. Secondly, we propose a new estimator for the residual variance by fitting a linear regression method to some difference-based estimators. Our proposed estimator achieves the asymptotic optimal rate of mean squared error. Simulation studies also demonstrate that our proposed estimator performs better than the existing estimator, especially when the sample size is small and the nonparametric function is rough.

  3. Modeling and analysis of linear hyperbolic systems of balance laws

    Bartecki, Krzysztof

    2016-01-01

    This monograph focuses on the mathematical modeling of distributed parameter systems in which mass/energy transport or wave propagation phenomena occur and which are described by partial differential equations of hyperbolic type. The case of linear (or linearized) 2 x 2 hyperbolic systems of balance laws is considered, i.e., systems described by two coupled linear partial differential equations with two variables representing physical quantities, depending on both time and one-dimensional spatial variable. Based on practical examples of a double-pipe heat exchanger and a transportation pipeline, two typical configurations of boundary input signals are analyzed: collocated, wherein both signals affect the system at the same spatial point, and anti-collocated, in which the input signals are applied to the two different end points of the system. The results of this book emerge from the practical experience of the author gained during his studies conducted in the experimental installation of a heat exchange cente...

  4. Optimal difference-based estimation for partially linear models

    Zhou, Yuejin

    2017-12-16

    Difference-based methods have attracted increasing attention for analyzing partially linear models in the recent literature. In this paper, we first propose to solve the optimal sequence selection problem in difference-based estimation for the linear component. To achieve the goal, a family of new sequences and a cross-validation method for selecting the adaptive sequence are proposed. We demonstrate that the existing sequences are only extreme cases in the proposed family. Secondly, we propose a new estimator for the residual variance by fitting a linear regression method to some difference-based estimators. Our proposed estimator achieves the asymptotic optimal rate of mean squared error. Simulation studies also demonstrate that our proposed estimator performs better than the existing estimator, especially when the sample size is small and the nonparametric function is rough.

  5. Predicting linear and nonlinear time series with applications in nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation

    Burr, T.L.

    1994-04-01

    This report is a primer on the analysis of both linear and nonlinear time series with applications in nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation. We analyze eight simulated and two real time series using both linear and nonlinear modeling techniques. The theoretical treatment is brief but references to pertinent theory are provided. Forecasting is our main goal. However, because our most common approach is to fit models to the data, we also emphasize checking model adequacy by analyzing forecast errors for serial correlation or nonconstant variance

  6. Integration of Attributes from Non-Linear Characterization of Cardiovascular Time-Series for Prediction of Defibrillation Outcomes.

    Sharad Shandilya

    Full Text Available The timing of defibrillation is mostly at arbitrary intervals during cardio-pulmonary resuscitation (CPR, rather than during intervals when the out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OOH-CA patient is physiologically primed for successful countershock. Interruptions to CPR may negatively impact defibrillation success. Multiple defibrillations can be associated with decreased post-resuscitation myocardial function. We hypothesize that a more complete picture of the cardiovascular system can be gained through non-linear dynamics and integration of multiple physiologic measures from biomedical signals.Retrospective analysis of 153 anonymized OOH-CA patients who received at least one defibrillation for ventricular fibrillation (VF was undertaken. A machine learning model, termed Multiple Domain Integrative (MDI model, was developed to predict defibrillation success. We explore the rationale for non-linear dynamics and statistically validate heuristics involved in feature extraction for model development. Performance of MDI is then compared to the amplitude spectrum area (AMSA technique.358 defibrillations were evaluated (218 unsuccessful and 140 successful. Non-linear properties (Lyapunov exponent > 0 of the ECG signals indicate a chaotic nature and validate the use of novel non-linear dynamic methods for feature extraction. Classification using MDI yielded ROC-AUC of 83.2% and accuracy of 78.8%, for the model built with ECG data only. Utilizing 10-fold cross-validation, at 80% specificity level, MDI (74% sensitivity outperformed AMSA (53.6% sensitivity. At 90% specificity level, MDI had 68.4% sensitivity while AMSA had 43.3% sensitivity. Integrating available end-tidal carbon dioxide features into MDI, for the available 48 defibrillations, boosted ROC-AUC to 93.8% and accuracy to 83.3% at 80% sensitivity.At clinically relevant sensitivity thresholds, the MDI provides improved performance as compared to AMSA, yielding fewer unsuccessful defibrillations

  7. A penalized framework for distributed lag non-linear models.

    Gasparrini, Antonio; Scheipl, Fabian; Armstrong, Ben; Kenward, Michael G

    2017-09-01

    Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are a modelling tool for describing potentially non-linear and delayed dependencies. Here, we illustrate an extension of the DLNM framework through the use of penalized splines within generalized additive models (GAM). This extension offers built-in model selection procedures and the possibility of accommodating assumptions on the shape of the lag structure through specific penalties. In addition, this framework includes, as special cases, simpler models previously proposed for linear relationships (DLMs). Alternative versions of penalized DLNMs are compared with each other and with the standard unpenalized version in a simulation study. Results show that this penalized extension to the DLNM class provides greater flexibility and improved inferential properties. The framework exploits recent theoretical developments of GAMs and is implemented using efficient routines within freely available software. Real-data applications are illustrated through two reproducible examples in time series and survival analysis. © 2017 The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.

  8. General mirror pairs for gauged linear sigma models

    Aspinwall, Paul S.; Plesser, M. Ronen [Departments of Mathematics and Physics, Duke University,Box 90320, Durham, NC 27708-0320 (United States)

    2015-11-05

    We carefully analyze the conditions for an abelian gauged linear σ-model to exhibit nontrivial IR behavior described by a nonsingular superconformal field theory determining a superstring vacuum. This is done without reference to a geometric phase, by associating singular behavior to a noncompact space of (semi-)classical vacua. We find that models determined by reflexive combinatorial data are nonsingular for generic values of their parameters. This condition has the pleasant feature that the mirror of a nonsingular gauged linear σ-model is another such model, but it is clearly too strong and we provide an example of a non-reflexive mirror pair. We discuss a weaker condition inspired by considering extremal transitions, which is also mirror symmetric and which we conjecture to be sufficient. We apply these ideas to extremal transitions and to understanding the way in which both Berglund-Hübsch mirror symmetry and the Vafa-Witten mirror orbifold with discrete torsion can be seen as special cases of the general combinatorial duality of gauged linear σ-models. In the former case we encounter an example showing that our weaker condition is still not necessary.

  9. General mirror pairs for gauged linear sigma models

    Aspinwall, Paul S.; Plesser, M. Ronen

    2015-01-01

    We carefully analyze the conditions for an abelian gauged linear σ-model to exhibit nontrivial IR behavior described by a nonsingular superconformal field theory determining a superstring vacuum. This is done without reference to a geometric phase, by associating singular behavior to a noncompact space of (semi-)classical vacua. We find that models determined by reflexive combinatorial data are nonsingular for generic values of their parameters. This condition has the pleasant feature that the mirror of a nonsingular gauged linear σ-model is another such model, but it is clearly too strong and we provide an example of a non-reflexive mirror pair. We discuss a weaker condition inspired by considering extremal transitions, which is also mirror symmetric and which we conjecture to be sufficient. We apply these ideas to extremal transitions and to understanding the way in which both Berglund-Hübsch mirror symmetry and the Vafa-Witten mirror orbifold with discrete torsion can be seen as special cases of the general combinatorial duality of gauged linear σ-models. In the former case we encounter an example showing that our weaker condition is still not necessary.

  10. OPLS statistical model versus linear regression to assess sonographic predictors of stroke prognosis.

    Vajargah, Kianoush Fathi; Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Mehdizadeh-Esfanjani, Robab; Savadi-Oskouei, Daryoush; Farhoudi, Mehdi

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to assess the comparable applicability of orthogonal projections to latent structures (OPLS) statistical model vs traditional linear regression in order to investigate the role of trans cranial doppler (TCD) sonography in predicting ischemic stroke prognosis. The study was conducted on 116 ischemic stroke patients admitted to a specialty neurology ward. The Unified Neurological Stroke Scale was used once for clinical evaluation on the first week of admission and again six months later. All data was primarily analyzed using simple linear regression and later considered for multivariate analysis using PLS/OPLS models through the SIMCA P+12 statistical software package. The linear regression analysis results used for the identification of TCD predictors of stroke prognosis were confirmed through the OPLS modeling technique. Moreover, in comparison to linear regression, the OPLS model appeared to have higher sensitivity in detecting the predictors of ischemic stroke prognosis and detected several more predictors. Applying the OPLS model made it possible to use both single TCD measures/indicators and arbitrarily dichotomized measures of TCD single vessel involvement as well as the overall TCD result. In conclusion, the authors recommend PLS/OPLS methods as complementary rather than alternative to the available classical regression models such as linear regression.

  11. Robust Linear Models for Cis-eQTL Analysis.

    Rantalainen, Mattias; Lindgren, Cecilia M; Holmes, Christopher C

    2015-01-01

    Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) analysis enables characterisation of functional genetic variation influencing expression levels of individual genes. In outbread populations, including humans, eQTLs are commonly analysed using the conventional linear model, adjusting for relevant covariates, assuming an allelic dosage model and a Gaussian error term. However, gene expression data generally have noise that induces heavy-tailed errors relative to the Gaussian distribution and often include atypical observations, or outliers. Such departures from modelling assumptions can lead to an increased rate of type II errors (false negatives), and to some extent also type I errors (false positives). Careful model checking can reduce the risk of type-I errors but often not type II errors, since it is generally too time-consuming to carefully check all models with a non-significant effect in large-scale and genome-wide studies. Here we propose the application of a robust linear model for eQTL analysis to reduce adverse effects of deviations from the assumption of Gaussian residuals. We present results from a simulation study as well as results from the analysis of real eQTL data sets. Our findings suggest that in many situations robust models have the potential to provide more reliable eQTL results compared to conventional linear models, particularly in respect to reducing type II errors due to non-Gaussian noise. Post-genomic data, such as that generated in genome-wide eQTL studies, are often noisy and frequently contain atypical observations. Robust statistical models have the potential to provide more reliable results and increased statistical power under non-Gaussian conditions. The results presented here suggest that robust models should be considered routinely alongside other commonly used methodologies for eQTL analysis.

  12. Linear and nonlinear methods in modeling the aqueous solubility of organic compounds.

    Catana, Cornel; Gao, Hua; Orrenius, Christian; Stouten, Pieter F W

    2005-01-01

    Solubility data for 930 diverse compounds have been analyzed using linear Partial Least Square (PLS) and nonlinear PLS methods, Continuum Regression (CR), and Neural Networks (NN). 1D and 2D descriptors from MOE package in combination with E-state or ISIS keys have been used. The best model was obtained using linear PLS for a combination between 22 MOE descriptors and 65 ISIS keys. It has a correlation coefficient (r2) of 0.935 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.468 log molar solubility (log S(w)). The model validated on a test set of 177 compounds not included in the training set has r2 0.911 and RMSE 0.475 log S(w). The descriptors were ranked according to their importance, and at the top of the list have been found the 22 MOE descriptors. The CR model produced results as good as PLS, and because of the way in which cross-validation has been done it is expected to be a valuable tool in prediction besides PLS model. The statistics obtained using nonlinear methods did not surpass those got with linear ones. The good statistic obtained for linear PLS and CR recommends these models to be used in prediction when it is difficult or impossible to make experimental measurements, for virtual screening, combinatorial library design, and efficient leads optimization.

  13. Subcellular localization for Gram positive and Gram negative bacterial proteins using linear interpolation smoothing model.

    Saini, Harsh; Raicar, Gaurav; Dehzangi, Abdollah; Lal, Sunil; Sharma, Alok

    2015-12-07

    Protein subcellular localization is an important topic in proteomics since it is related to a protein׳s overall function, helps in the understanding of metabolic pathways, and in drug design and discovery. In this paper, a basic approximation technique from natural language processing called the linear interpolation smoothing model is applied for predicting protein subcellular localizations. The proposed approach extracts features from syntactical information in protein sequences to build probabilistic profiles using dependency models, which are used in linear interpolation to determine how likely is a sequence to belong to a particular subcellular location. This technique builds a statistical model based on maximum likelihood. It is able to deal effectively with high dimensionality that hinders other traditional classifiers such as Support Vector Machines or k-Nearest Neighbours without sacrificing performance. This approach has been evaluated by predicting subcellular localizations of Gram positive and Gram negative bacterial proteins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Predicting non-linear dynamics by stable local learning in a recurrent spiking neural network.

    Gilra, Aditya; Gerstner, Wulfram

    2017-11-27

    The brain needs to predict how the body reacts to motor commands, but how a network of spiking neurons can learn non-linear body dynamics using local, online and stable learning rules is unclear. Here, we present a supervised learning scheme for the feedforward and recurrent connections in a network of heterogeneous spiking neurons. The error in the output is fed back through fixed random connections with a negative gain, causing the network to follow the desired dynamics. The rule for Feedback-based Online Local Learning Of Weights (FOLLOW) is local in the sense that weight changes depend on the presynaptic activity and the error signal projected onto the postsynaptic neuron. We provide examples of learning linear, non-linear and chaotic dynamics, as well as the dynamics of a two-link arm. Under reasonable approximations, we show, using the Lyapunov method, that FOLLOW learning is uniformly stable, with the error going to zero asymptotically.

  15. Linear models for joint association and linkage QTL mapping

    Fernando Rohan L

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Populational linkage disequilibrium and within-family linkage are commonly used for QTL mapping and marker assisted selection. The combination of both results in more robust and accurate locations of the QTL, but models proposed so far have been either single marker, complex in practice or well fit to a particular family structure. Results We herein present linear model theory to come up with additive effects of the QTL alleles in any member of a general pedigree, conditional to observed markers and pedigree, accounting for possible linkage disequilibrium among QTLs and markers. The model is based on association analysis in the founders; further, the additive effect of the QTLs transmitted to the descendants is a weighted (by the probabilities of transmission average of the substitution effects of founders' haplotypes. The model allows for non-complete linkage disequilibrium QTL-markers in the founders. Two submodels are presented: a simple and easy to implement Haley-Knott type regression for half-sib families, and a general mixed (variance component model for general pedigrees. The model can use information from all markers. The performance of the regression method is compared by simulation with a more complex IBD method by Meuwissen and Goddard. Numerical examples are provided. Conclusion The linear model theory provides a useful framework for QTL mapping with dense marker maps. Results show similar accuracies but a bias of the IBD method towards the center of the region. Computations for the linear regression model are extremely simple, in contrast with IBD methods. Extensions of the model to genomic selection and multi-QTL mapping are straightforward.

  16. The application of sparse linear prediction dictionary to compressive sensing in speech signals

    YOU Hanxu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Appling compressive sensing (CS,which theoretically guarantees that signal sampling and signal compression can be achieved simultaneously,into audio and speech signal processing is one of the most popular research topics in recent years.In this paper,K-SVD algorithm was employed to learn a sparse linear prediction dictionary regarding as the sparse basis of underlying speech signals.Compressed signals was obtained by applying random Gaussian matrix to sample original speech frames.Orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP and compressive sampling matching pursuit (CoSaMP were adopted to recovery original signals from compressed one.Numbers of experiments were carried out to investigate the impact of speech frames length,compression ratios,sparse basis and reconstruction algorithms on CS performance.Results show that sparse linear prediction dictionary can advance the performance of speech signals reconstruction compared with discrete cosine transform (DCT matrix.

  17. Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

    Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

  18. A Detailed Analytical Study of Non-Linear Semiconductor Device Modelling

    Umesh Kumar

    1995-01-01

    junction diode have been developed. The results of computer simulated examples have been presented in each case. The non-linear lumped model for Gunn is a unified model as it describes the diffusion effects as the-domain traves from cathode to anode. An additional feature of this model is that it describes the domain extinction and nucleation phenomena in Gunn dioder with the help of a simple timing circuit. The non-linear lumped model for SCR is general and is valid under any mode of operation in any circuit environment. The memristive circuit model for p-n junction diodes is capable of simulating realistically the diode’s dynamic behavior under reverse, forward and sinusiodal operating modes. The model uses memristor, the charge-controlled resistor to mimic various second-order effects due to conductivity modulation. It is found that both storage time and fall time of the diode can be accurately predicted.

  19. Methodology and Applications in Non-linear Model-based Geostatistics

    Christensen, Ole Fredslund

    that are approximately Gaussian. Parameter estimation and prediction for the transformed Gaussian model is studied. In some cases a transformation cannot possibly render the data Gaussian. A methodology for analysing such data was introduced by Diggle, Tawn and Moyeed (1998): The generalised linear spatial model...... priors for Bayesian inference is discussed. Procedures for parameter estimation and prediction are studied. Theoretical properties of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are investigated, and different algorithms are compared. In addition, the thesis contains a manual for an R-package, geoRglmm, which...

  20. A Graphical User Interface to Generalized Linear Models in MATLAB

    Peter Dunn

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available Generalized linear models unite a wide variety of statistical models in a common theoretical framework. This paper discusses GLMLAB-software that enables such models to be fitted in the popular mathematical package MATLAB. It provides a graphical user interface to the powerful MATLAB computational engine to produce a program that is easy to use but with many features, including offsets, prior weights and user-defined distributions and link functions. MATLAB's graphical capacities are also utilized in providing a number of simple residual diagnostic plots.

  1. MAGDM linear-programming models with distinct uncertain preference structures.

    Xu, Zeshui S; Chen, Jian

    2008-10-01

    Group decision making with preference information on alternatives is an interesting and important research topic which has been receiving more and more attention in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to investigate multiple-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems with distinct uncertain preference structures. We develop some linear-programming models for dealing with the MAGDM problems, where the information about attribute weights is incomplete, and the decision makers have their preferences on alternatives. The provided preference information can be represented in the following three distinct uncertain preference structures: 1) interval utility values; 2) interval fuzzy preference relations; and 3) interval multiplicative preference relations. We first establish some linear-programming models based on decision matrix and each of the distinct uncertain preference structures and, then, develop some linear-programming models to integrate all three structures of subjective uncertain preference information provided by the decision makers and the objective information depicted in the decision matrix. Furthermore, we propose a simple and straightforward approach in ranking and selecting the given alternatives. It is worth pointing out that the developed models can also be used to deal with the situations where the three distinct uncertain preference structures are reduced to the traditional ones, i.e., utility values, fuzzy preference relations, and multiplicative preference relations. Finally, we use a practical example to illustrate in detail the calculation process of the developed approach.

  2. MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR PREDICTION OF BOILER LOSSES AND BOILER EFFICIENCY

    Chayalakshmi C.L

    2018-01-01

    MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR PREDICTION OF BOILER LOSSES AND BOILER EFFICIENCY ABSTRACT Calculation of boiler efficiency is essential if its parameters need to be controlled for either maintaining or enhancing its efficiency. But determination of boiler efficiency using conventional method is time consuming and very expensive. Hence, it is not recommended to find boiler efficiency frequently. The work presented in this paper deals with establishing the statistical mo...

  3. Integrating piecewise linear representation and ensemble neural network for stock price prediction

    Asaduzzaman, Md.; Shahjahan, Md.; Ahmed, Fatema Johera; Islam, Md. Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki

    2014-01-01

    Stock Prices are considered to be very dynamic and susceptible to quick changes because of the underlying nature of the financial domain, and in part because of the interchange between known parameters and unknown factors. Of late, several researchers have used Piecewise Linear Representation (PLR) to predict the stock market pricing. However, some improvements are needed to avoid the appropriate threshold of the trading decision, choosing the input index as well as improving the overall perf...

  4. Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction.

    Mistry, Hitesh B

    2018-01-01

    There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model B net was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the B net model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.

  5. Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction

    Hitesh B. Mistry

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model Bnet was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the Bnet model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.

  6. Ensemble prediction of floods – catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities

    C. Reszler

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the uncertainty of flood forecasts by ensemble methods is becoming increasingly important for operational purposes. The aim of this paper is to examine how the ensemble distribution of precipitation forecasts propagates in the catchment system, and to interpret the flood forecast probabilities relative to the forecast errors. We use the 622 km2 Kamp catchment in Austria as an example where a comprehensive data set, including a 500 yr and a 1000 yr flood, is available. A spatially-distributed continuous rainfall-runoff model is used along with ensemble and deterministic precipitation forecasts that combine rain gauge data, radar data and the forecast fields of the ALADIN and ECMWF numerical weather prediction models. The analyses indicate that, for long lead times, the variability of the precipitation ensemble is amplified as it propagates through the catchment system as a result of non-linear catchment response. In contrast, for lead times shorter than the catchment lag time (e.g. 12 h and less, the variability of the precipitation ensemble is decreased as the forecasts are mainly controlled by observed upstream runoff and observed precipitation. Assuming that all ensemble members are equally likely, the statistical analyses for five flood events at the Kamp showed that the ensemble spread of the flood forecasts is always narrower than the distribution of the forecast errors. This is because the ensemble forecasts focus on the uncertainty in forecast precipitation as the dominant source of uncertainty, and other sources of uncertainty are not accounted for. However, a number of analyses, including Relative Operating Characteristic diagrams, indicate that the ensemble spread is a useful indicator to assess potential forecast errors for lead times larger than 12 h.

  7. A Non-Gaussian Spatial Generalized Linear Latent Variable Model

    Irincheeva, Irina

    2012-08-03

    We consider a spatial generalized linear latent variable model with and without normality distributional assumption on the latent variables. When the latent variables are assumed to be multivariate normal, we apply a Laplace approximation. To relax the assumption of marginal normality in favor of a mixture of normals, we construct a multivariate density with Gaussian spatial dependence and given multivariate margins. We use the pairwise likelihood to estimate the corresponding spatial generalized linear latent variable model. The properties of the resulting estimators are explored by simulations. In the analysis of an air pollution data set the proposed methodology uncovers weather conditions to be a more important source of variability than air pollution in explaining all the causes of non-accidental mortality excluding accidents. © 2012 International Biometric Society.

  8. A non-linear model of economic production processes

    Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

    2003-06-01

    We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

  9. A Non-Gaussian Spatial Generalized Linear Latent Variable Model

    Irincheeva, Irina; Cantoni, Eva; Genton, Marc G.

    2012-01-01

    We consider a spatial generalized linear latent variable model with and without normality distributional assumption on the latent variables. When the latent variables are assumed to be multivariate normal, we apply a Laplace approximation. To relax the assumption of marginal normality in favor of a mixture of normals, we construct a multivariate density with Gaussian spatial dependence and given multivariate margins. We use the pairwise likelihood to estimate the corresponding spatial generalized linear latent variable model. The properties of the resulting estimators are explored by simulations. In the analysis of an air pollution data set the proposed methodology uncovers weather conditions to be a more important source of variability than air pollution in explaining all the causes of non-accidental mortality excluding accidents. © 2012 International Biometric Society.

  10. NON-LINEAR FINITE ELEMENT MODELING OF DEEP DRAWING PROCESS

    Hasan YILDIZ

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Deep drawing process is one of the main procedures used in different branches of industry. Finding numerical solutions for determination of the mechanical behaviour of this process will save time and money. In die surfaces, which have complex geometries, it is hard to determine the effects of parameters of sheet metal forming. Some of these parameters are wrinkling, tearing, and determination of the flow of the thin sheet metal in the die and thickness change. However, the most difficult one is determination of material properties during plastic deformation. In this study, the effects of all these parameters are analyzed before producing the dies. The explicit non-linear finite element method is chosen to be used in the analysis. The numerical results obtained for non-linear material and contact models are also compared with the experiments. A good agreement between the numerical and the experimental results is obtained. The results obtained for the models are given in detail.

  11. Dynamic generalized linear models for monitoring endemic diseases

    Lopes Antunes, Ana Carolina; Jensen, Dan; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2016-01-01

    The objective was to use a Dynamic Generalized Linear Model (DGLM) based on abinomial distribution with a linear trend, for monitoring the PRRS (Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome sero-prevalence in Danish swine herds. The DGLM was described and its performance for monitoring control...... and eradication programmes based on changes in PRRS sero-prevalence was explored. Results showed a declining trend in PRRS sero-prevalence between 2007 and 2014 suggesting that Danish herds are slowly eradicating PRRS. The simulation study demonstrated the flexibility of DGLMs in adapting to changes intrends...... in sero-prevalence. Based on this, it was possible to detect variations in the growth model component. This study is a proof-of-concept, demonstrating the use of DGLMs for monitoring endemic diseases. In addition, the principles stated might be useful in general research on monitoring and surveillance...

  12. Estimation and Inference for Very Large Linear Mixed Effects Models

    Gao, K.; Owen, A. B.

    2016-01-01

    Linear mixed models with large imbalanced crossed random effects structures pose severe computational problems for maximum likelihood estimation and for Bayesian analysis. The costs can grow as fast as $N^{3/2}$ when there are N observations. Such problems arise in any setting where the underlying factors satisfy a many to many relationship (instead of a nested one) and in electronic commerce applications, the N can be quite large. Methods that do not account for the correlation structure can...

  13. Using Quartile-Quartile Lines as Linear Models

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2015-01-01

    This article introduces the notion of the quartile-quartile line as an alternative to the regression line and the median-median line to produce a linear model based on a set of data. It is based on using the first and third quartiles of a set of (x, y) data. Dynamic spreadsheets are used as exploratory tools to compare the different approaches and…

  14. NON-LINEAR MODELING OF THE RHIC INTERACTION REGIONS

    TOMAS, R.; FISCHER, W.; JAIN, A.; LUO, Y.; PILAT, F.

    2004-01-01

    For RHIC's collision lattices the dominant sources of transverse non-linearities are located in the interaction regions. The field quality is available for most of the magnets in the interaction regions from the magnetic measurements, or from extrapolations of these measurements. We discuss the implementation of these measurements in the MADX models of the Blue and the Yellow rings and their impact on beam stability

  15. Electromagnetic axial anomaly in a generalized linear sigma model

    Fariborz, Amir H.; Jora, Renata

    2017-06-01

    We construct the electromagnetic anomaly effective term for a generalized linear sigma model with two chiral nonets, one with a quark-antiquark structure, the other one with a four-quark content. We compute in the leading order of this framework the decays into two photons of six pseudoscalars: π0(137 ), π0(1300 ), η (547 ), η (958 ), η (1295 ) and η (1760 ). Our results agree well with the available experimental data.

  16. A quasi-linear gyrokinetic transport model for tokamak plasmas

    Casati, A.

    2009-10-01

    After a presentation of some basics around nuclear fusion, this research thesis introduces the framework of the tokamak strategy to deal with confinement, hence the main plasma instabilities which are responsible for turbulent transport of energy and matter in such a system. The author also briefly introduces the two principal plasma representations, the fluid and the kinetic ones. He explains why the gyro-kinetic approach has been preferred. A tokamak relevant case is presented in order to highlight the relevance of a correct accounting of the kinetic wave-particle resonance. He discusses the issue of the quasi-linear response. Firstly, the derivation of the model, called QuaLiKiz, and its underlying hypotheses to get the energy and the particle turbulent flux are presented. Secondly, the validity of the quasi-linear response is verified against the nonlinear gyro-kinetic simulations. The saturation model that is assumed in QuaLiKiz, is presented and discussed. Then, the author qualifies the global outcomes of QuaLiKiz. Both the quasi-linear energy and the particle flux are compared to the expectations from the nonlinear simulations, across a wide scan of tokamak relevant parameters. Therefore, the coupling of QuaLiKiz within the integrated transport solver CRONOS is presented: this procedure allows the time-dependent transport problem to be solved, hence the direct application of the model to the experiment. The first preliminary results regarding the experimental analysis are finally discussed

  17. Nonstandard Finite Difference Method Applied to a Linear Pharmacokinetics Model

    Oluwaseun Egbelowo

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available We extend the nonstandard finite difference method of solution to the study of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic models. Pharmacokinetic (PK models are commonly used to predict drug concentrations that drive controlled intravenous (I.V. transfers (or infusion and oral transfers while pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PD interaction models are used to provide predictions of drug concentrations affecting the response of these clinical drugs. We structure a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD scheme for the relevant system of equations which models this pharamcokinetic process. We compare the results obtained to standard methods. The scheme is dynamically consistent and reliable in replicating complex dynamic properties of the relevant continuous models for varying step sizes. This study provides assistance in understanding the long-term behavior of the drug in the system, and validation of the efficiency of the nonstandard finite difference scheme as the method of choice.

  18. Computationally efficient model predictive control algorithms a neural network approach

    Ławryńczuk, Maciej

    2014-01-01

    This book thoroughly discusses computationally efficient (suboptimal) Model Predictive Control (MPC) techniques based on neural models. The subjects treated include: ·         A few types of suboptimal MPC algorithms in which a linear approximation of the model or of the predicted trajectory is successively calculated on-line and used for prediction. ·         Implementation details of the MPC algorithms for feedforward perceptron neural models, neural Hammerstein models, neural Wiener models and state-space neural models. ·         The MPC algorithms based on neural multi-models (inspired by the idea of predictive control). ·         The MPC algorithms with neural approximation with no on-line linearization. ·         The MPC algorithms with guaranteed stability and robustness. ·         Cooperation between the MPC algorithms and set-point optimization. Thanks to linearization (or neural approximation), the presented suboptimal algorithms do not require d...

  19. Modelling lactation curve for milk fat to protein ratio in Iranian buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) using non-linear mixed models.

    Hossein-Zadeh, Navid Ghavi

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare seven non-linear mathematical models (Brody, Wood, Dhanoa, Sikka, Nelder, Rook and Dijkstra) to examine their efficiency in describing the lactation curves for milk fat to protein ratio (FPR) in Iranian buffaloes. Data were 43 818 test-day records for FPR from the first three lactations of Iranian buffaloes which were collected on 523 dairy herds in the period from 1996 to 2012 by the Animal Breeding Center of Iran. Each model was fitted to monthly FPR records of buffaloes using the non-linear mixed model procedure (PROC NLMIXED) in SAS and the parameters were estimated. The models were tested for goodness of fit using Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and log maximum likelihood (-2 Log L). The Nelder and Sikka mixed models provided the best fit of lactation curve for FPR in the first and second lactations of Iranian buffaloes, respectively. However, Wood, Dhanoa and Sikka mixed models provided the best fit of lactation curve for FPR in the third parity buffaloes. Evaluation of first, second and third lactation features showed that all models, except for Dijkstra model in the third lactation, under-predicted test time at which daily FPR was minimum. On the other hand, minimum FPR was over-predicted by all equations. Evaluation of the different models used in this study indicated that non-linear mixed models were sufficient for fitting test-day FPR records of Iranian buffaloes.

  20. Linear filters as a method of real-time prediction of geomagnetic activity

    McPherron, R.L.; Baker, D.N.; Bargatze, L.F.

    1985-01-01

    Important factors controlling geomagnetic activity include the solar wind velocity, the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the field orientation. Because these quantities change so much in transit through the solar wind, real-time monitoring immediately upstream of the earth provides the best input for any technique of real-time prediction. One such technique is linear prediction filtering which utilizes past histories of the input and output of a linear system to create a time-invariant filter characterizing the system. Problems of nonlinearity or temporal changes of the system can be handled by appropriate choice of input parameters and piecewise approximation in various ranges of the input. We have created prediction filters for all the standard magnetic indices and tested their efficiency. The filters show that the initial response of the magnetosphere to a southward turning of the IMF peaks in 20 minutes and then again in 55 minutes. After a northward turning, auroral zone indices and the midlatitude ASYM index return to background within 2 hours, while Dst decays exponentially with a time constant of about 8 hours. This paper describes a simple, real-time system utilizing these filters which could predict a substantial fraction of the variation in magnetic activity indices 20 to 50 minutes in advance