WorldWideScience

Sample records for life prediction methodologies

  1. A comparison of fatigue life prediction methodologies for rotorcraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everett, R. A., Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Because of the current U.S. Army requirement that all new rotorcraft be designed to a 'six nines' reliability on fatigue life, this study was undertaken to assess the accuracy of the current safe life philosophy using the nominal stress Palmgrem-Miner linear cumulative damage rule to predict the fatigue life of rotorcraft dynamic components. It has been shown that this methodology can predict fatigue lives that differ from test lives by more than two orders of magnitude. A further objective of this work was to compare the accuracy of this methodology to another safe life method called the local strain approach as well as to a method which predicts fatigue life based solely on crack growth data. Spectrum fatigue tests were run on notched (k(sub t) = 3.2) specimens made of 4340 steel using the Felix/28 tests fairly well, being slightly on the unconservative side of the test data. The crack growth method, which is based on 'small crack' crack growth data and a crack-closure model, also predicted the fatigue lives very well with the predicted lives being slightly longer that the mean test lives but within the experimental scatter band. The crack growth model was also able to predict the change in test lives produced by the rainflow reconstructed spectra.

  2. Recent Methodologies for Creep Deformation Analysis and Its Life Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Park, Jae-Young; Iung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    To design the high-temperature creeping materials, various creep data are needed for codification, as follows: i) stress vs. creep rupture time for base metals and weldments (average and minimum), ii) stress vs. time to 1% total strain (average), iii) stress vs. time to onset of tertiary creep (minimum), and iv) constitutive eqns. for conducting time- and temperature- dependent stress-strain (average), and v) isochronous stress-strain curves (average). Also, elevated temperature components such as those used in modern power generation plant are designed using allowable stress under creep conditions. The allowable stress is usually estimated on the basis of up to 10{sup 5} h creep rupture strength at the operating temperature. The master curve of the “sinh” function was found to have a wider acceptance with good flexibility in the low stress ranges beyond the experimental data. The proposed multi-C method in the LM parameter revealed better life prediction than a single-C method. These improved methodologies can be utilized to accurately predict the long-term creep life or strength of Gen-IV nuclear materials which are designed for life span of 60 years.

  3. Fatigue in high-speed aluminium craft: A design methodology for predicting the fatigue life

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuitman, J.T.; Hoogendoorn, D.

    2013-01-01

    Within the VOMAS project, a methodology has been developed to predict the fatigue life of high-speed aluminium crafts. This paper describes this methodology and its implementation into a computational tool. This methodology computes the seakeeping and resulting pressure at the structure for all cond

  4. Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS and CMC's

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jadaan, Osama

    2003-01-01

    This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for ceramic matrix composites and MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. For CMC's this includes a brief literature survey regarding lifing methodologies. Also of interest for MEMS is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in thin film (bulge test) specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. A main objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. A second set of objectives is to determine the applicability/suitability of the CARES/Life methodology for CMC analysis, what changes would be needed to the methodology and software, and if feasible, run a demonstration problem. Also important is an evaluation of CARES/Life coupled to the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) and the potential of coupling transient reliability analysis to the ANSYS PDS.

  5. Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jadaan, Osama M.

    2003-01-01

    This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. This includes completion of a literature survey regarding Weibull size effect in MEMS and strength testing techniques. Also of interest is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in tensile specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. Another potential item of interest is analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structuredlife (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. Along these lines work may also be performed on transient fatigue life prediction methodologies.

  6. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E. [Allison Engine Co., Indianapolis, IN (United States)

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  7. Life prediction methodology for thermal-mechanical fatigue and elevated temperature creep design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annigeri, Ravindra

    Nickel-based superalloys are used for hot section components of gas turbine engines. Life prediction techniques are necessary to assess service damage in superalloy components resulting from thermal-mechanical fatigue (TMF) and elevated temperature creep. A new TMF life model based on continuum damage mechanics has been developed and applied to IN 738 LC substrate material with and without coating. The model also characterizes TMF failure in bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay and NiAl aluminide coatings. The inputs to the TMF life model are mechanical strain range, hold time, peak cycle temperatures and maximum stress measured from the stabilized or mid-life hysteresis loops. A viscoplastic model is used to predict the stress-strain hysteresis loops. A flow rule used in the viscoplastic model characterizes the inelastic strain rate as a function of the applied stress and a set of three internal stress variables known as back stress, drag stress and limit stress. Test results show that the viscoplastic model can reasonably predict time-dependent stress-strain response of the coated material and stress relaxation during hold times. In addition to the TMF life prediction methodology, a model has been developed to characterize the uniaxial and multiaxial creep behavior. An effective stress defined as the applied stress minus the back stress is used to characterize the creep recovery and primary creep behavior. The back stress has terms representing strain hardening, dynamic recovery and thermal recovery. Whenever the back stress is greater than the applied stress, the model predicts a negative creep rate observed during multiple stress and multiple temperature cyclic tests. The model also predicted the rupture time and the remaining life that are important for life assessment. The model has been applied to IN 738 LC, Mar-M247, bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay coating and 316 austenitic stainless steel. The proposed model predicts creep response with a reasonable accuracy for wide range of

  8. The Potential United Kingdom Energy Gap and Creep Life Prediction Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The United Kingdom faces a looming energy gap with around 20 pct of its generating capacity due for closure in the next 10 to 15 years as a result of plant age and new European legislation on environmental protection and safety at work. A number of solutions exist for this problem including the use of new materials so that new plants can operate at higher temperatures, new technologies related to carbon capture and gasification, development of renewable resources, and less obviously the use of accurate models for predicting creep life. This article reviews, with illustrations, some of the more applicable and successful creep prediction methodologies used by academics and industrialists and highlights how these techniques can help alleviate the looming energy gap. The role that these approaches can play in solving the energy gap is highlighted throughout.

  9. A Methodology to Predict Uniform Material Fatigue Life of Cast Iron: Law for Cast Iron%A Methodology to Predict Uniform Material Fatigue Life of Cast Iron: Law for Cast Iron

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sinan Korkmaz

    2011-01-01

    Mechanical, physical and manufacturing properties of east iron make it attractive for many fields of application, such as cranks and cylinder holds. As in design of all metals, fatigue life prediction is an intrinsic part of the design process of structural sections that are made of cast iron. A methodology to predict high-cycle fatigue life of cast iron is proposed. Stress amplitude-strain amplitude, strain amplitude-number of loading cycles relationships of cast iron are investigated. Also, fatigue life prediction in terms of Smith, Watson and Topper parameter is carried out using the proposed method. Results indicate that the analytical outcomes of the proposed methodology are in good accordance with the experimental data for the two studied types of cast iron: EN-GJS-400 and EN-GJS-600.

  10. Computational Methodology for the Prediction of Functional Requirement Variations Across the Product Life-Cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Mandil, Guillaume; Rivière, Alain

    2009-01-01

    The great majority of engineered products are subject to thermo-mechanical loads which vary with the product environment during the various phases of its life-cycle (machining, assembly, intended service use...). Those load variations may result in different values of the parts nominal dimensions, which in turn generate corresponding variation of the effective clearance (functional requirement) in the assembly. Usually, and according to the contractual drawings, the parts are measured after the machining stage, whereas the interesting measurement values are the ones taken in service for they allow the prediction of clearance value under operating conditions. Unfortunately, measurement in operating conditions may not be practical to obtain. Hence, the main purpose of this research is to create, through computations and simulations, links between the values of the loads, dimensions and functional requirements during the successive phases of the life cycle of some given product. [...

  11. On the development of life prediction methodologies for the failure of human teeth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nalla, R.K.; Imbeni, V.; Kinney, J.H.; Marshall, S.J.; Ritchie, R.O.

    2002-09-18

    Human dentin is known to be susceptible to failure under cyclic loading. Surprisingly, there are few reports that quantify the effect of such loading, considering the fact that a typical tooth experiences a million or so loading cycles annually. In the present study, a systematic investigation is described of the effects of prolonged cyclic loading on human dentin in a simulated physiological environment. In vitro stress-life (S/N) data are discussed in the context of possible mechanisms of fatigue damage and failure.

  12. Report on an Assessment of the Application of EPP Results from the Strain Limit Evaluation Procedure to the Prediction of Cyclic Life Based on the SMT Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jetter, R. I. [R. I. Jetter Consulting, Pebble Beach, CA (United States); Messner, M. C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sham, T. -L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wang, Y. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-08-01

    The goal of the proposed integrated Elastic Perfectly-Plastic (EPP) and Simplified Model Test (SMT) methodology is to incorporate an SMT data based approach for creep-fatigue damage evaluation into the EPP methodology to avoid the separate evaluation of creep and fatigue damage and eliminate the requirement for stress classification in current methods; thus greatly simplifying evaluation of elevated temperature cyclic service. This methodology should minimize over-conservatism while properly accounting for localized defects and stress risers. To support the implementation of the proposed methodology and to verify the applicability of the code rules, analytical studies and evaluation of thermomechanical test results continued in FY17. This report presents the results of those studies. An EPP strain limits methodology assessment was based on recent two-bar thermal ratcheting test results on 316H stainless steel in the temperature range of 405 to 7050C. Strain range predictions from the EPP evaluation of the two-bar tests were also evaluated and compared with the experimental results. The role of sustained primary loading on cyclic life was assessed using the results of pressurized SMT data from tests on Alloy 617 at 9500C. A viscoplastic material model was used in an analytic simulation of two-bar tests to compare with EPP strain limits assessments using isochronous stress strain curves that are consistent with the viscoplastic material model. A finite element model of a prior 304H stainless steel Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) nozzle-to-sphere test was developed and used for an EPP strain limits and creep-fatigue code case damage evaluations. A theoretical treatment of a recurring issue with convergence criteria for plastic shakedown illustrated the role of computer machine precision in EPP calculations.

  13. Service life prediction and cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis describes and discusses the applicability of a systematic methodology recommended by CIB W80/RILEM-PSL for sevice life prediction. The report describes the most important inherent and environmental factors affecting the service life of structures of cementitious composites....... On the basis of this discription of factors and experience from a test programme described in SBI Report 222, Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites, the applicabillity of the CIB/RILEM methodology is discussed....

  14. Economic evaluation of LIFE methodology

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    Background: The LIFE project (Lifecycle Information For E-Literature) was carried out during 2004-2006 by a consortium consisting of The British Library and University College London Library Services . The project was joint venture funded by JISC under the programme area Institutional Management Support and Collaboration. The project has received favourable feedback, for instance during a workshop organised at the end of it, and JISC has agreed to fund a second phase during...

  15. Methodological triangulation in work life research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warring, Niels

    Based on examples from two research projects on preschool teachers' work, the paper will discuss potentials and challenges in methodological triangulation in work life research. Analysis of ethnographic and phenomenological inspired observations of everyday life in day care centers formed the basis...

  16. Strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    In order to effectively improve numerical prediction level by using current models and data, the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction (DAP) is deeply studied in the present paper. A new idea to predict the prediction errors of dynamical model on the basis of historical analogue information is put forward so as to transform the dynamical prediction problem into the estimation problem of prediction errors. In terms of such an idea, a new prediction method of final analogue correction of errors (FACE) is developed. Furthermore, the FACE is applied to extra-seasonal prediction experiments on an operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation show that the FACE can to some extent reduce prediction errors, recover prediction variances, and improve prediction skills. Besides, sensitive experiments also show that predictions based on the FACE are evidently influenced by the number of analogues, analogue-selected variables and analogy metric.

  17. 10 CFR 436.12 - Life cycle cost methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Life cycle cost methodology. 436.12 Section 436.12 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND PLANNING PROGRAMS Methodology and Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.12 Life cycle cost methodology. The life cycle cost methodology...

  18. Methodologies for Social Life Cycle Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Andreas; Le Bocq, Agathe; Nazakina, Liudmila

    2008-01-01

    Goal, Scope and Background. In recent years several different approaches towards Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) have been developed. The purpose of this review is to compare these approaches in order to highlight methodological differences and general shortcomings. SLCA has several...... stage in the product life cycle. Another very important difference among the proposals is their position towards the use of generic data. Several of the proposals argue that social impacts are connected to the conduct of the company leading to the conclusion that each individual company in the product...... and formulation of indicators. The indicators address a wide variety of issues; some approaches focus on impacts created in the very close proximity of the processes included in the product system, whereas others focus on the more remote societal consequences. Only very little focus has been given to the use...

  19. 10 CFR 455.64 - Life-cycle cost methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Life-cycle cost methodology. 455.64 Section 455.64 Energy..., Hospitals, Units of Local Government, and Public Care Institutions § 455.64 Life-cycle cost methodology. (a) The life-cycle cost methodology under § 455.63(b) of this part is a systematic comparison of the...

  20. Predicting the remaining service life of concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clifton, J.F.

    1991-11-01

    Nuclear power plants are providing, currently, about 17 percent of the U.S. electricity and many of these plants are approaching their licensed life of 40 years. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Department of Energy`s Oak Ridge National Laboratory are carrying out a program to develop a methodology for assessing the remaining safe-life of the concrete components and structures in nuclear power plants. This program has the overall objective of identifying potential structural safety issues, as well as acceptance criteria, for use in evaluations of nuclear power plants for continued service. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is contributing to this program by identifying and analyzing methods for predicting the remaining life of in-service concrete materials. This report examines the basis for predicting the remaining service lives of concrete materials of nuclear power facilities. Methods for predicting the service life of new and in-service concrete materials are analyzed. These methods include (1) estimates based on experience, (2) comparison of performance, (3) accelerated testing, (4) stochastic methods, and (5) mathematical modeling. New approaches for predicting the remaining service lives of concrete materials are proposed and recommendations for their further development given. Degradation processes are discussed based on considerations of their mechanisms, likelihood of occurrence, manifestations, and detection. They include corrosion, sulfate attack, alkali-aggregate reactions, frost attack, leaching, radiation, salt crystallization, and microbiological attack.

  1. Methodological Validation of Quality of Life Questionnaire for Coal Mining Groups-Indian Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Sayanti; Sen, Goutam; Tewary, B. K.

    2012-01-01

    Maslow's hierarchy-of-needs theory has been used to predict development of Quality of Life (QOL) in countries over time. In this paper an attempt has been taken to derive a methodological validation of quality of life questionnaire which have been prepared for the study area. The objective of the study is to standardize a questionnaire tool to…

  2. Methodological Validation of Quality of Life Questionnaire for Coal Mining Groups-Indian Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Sayanti; Sen, Goutam; Tewary, B. K.

    2012-01-01

    Maslow's hierarchy-of-needs theory has been used to predict development of Quality of Life (QOL) in countries over time. In this paper an attempt has been taken to derive a methodological validation of quality of life questionnaire which have been prepared for the study area. The objective of the study is to standardize a questionnaire tool to…

  3. The ROF+ methodology for grease life testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lugt, Pieter Martin; van den Kommer, A.; Lindgren, H.; Deinhofer, L.

    2013-01-01

    Very often, the service life of grease lubricated rolling bearings is determined by the so called “grease life”. This can be tested on R0F test rigs, which have been available for this since more than 40 years. Recently, this technology has been updated and is now called R0F+. The R0F+ can be used a

  4. Methodologies for defining quality of life

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glicken, J. [Ecological Planning and Toxicology, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Engi, D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1996-10-10

    Quality of life as a concept has been used in many ways in the public policy arena. It can be used in summative evaluations to assess the impacts of policies or programs. Alternatively, it can be applied to formative evaluations to provide input to the formation of new policies. In short, it provides the context for the understanding needed to evaluate the results of choices that have been made in the public policy arena, or the potential of choices yet to be made. In either case, the public policy question revolves around the positive or negative impact the choice will have on quality of life, and the magnitude of that impact. This discussion will develop a conceptual framework that proposes that an assessment of quality of life is based on a comparison of expectations with experience. The framework defines four basic components from which these expectations arise: natural conditions, social conditions, the body, and the mind. Each one of these components is generally described, and associated with a general policy or rhetorical category which gives it its policy vocabulary--environmental quality, economic well-being, human health, and self-fulfillment.

  5. Life Cycle Engineering – from methodology to enterprise culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Alting, Leo; Poll, Christian

    2003-01-01

    As part of a sustainable development, the environmental efficiency of industry must increase by a factor four to ten. This engenders attention to the environmental impact of products and technical systems over their entire life cycle. The last decade has seen the development of a number...... of methodologies and tools for life cycle assessment and development of more eco-efficient products, from complex to simplified, catering to the needs of especially small and medium-sized enterprizes. The tools and data are in place, but dissemination lacks behind. Propagation of life cycle thinking and life cycle...

  6. Measurement of quality of life I. A methodological framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ventegodt, Søren; Hilden, Jørgen; Merrick, Joav

    2003-01-01

    meet to provide a sound basis for investigation by questionnaire. The seven criteria or desiderata are: (1) an explicit definition of quality of life; (2) a coherent philosophy of human life from which the definition is derived; (3) a theory that operationalizes the philosophy by specifying unambiguous......Despite the widespread acceptance of quality of life (QOL) as the ideal guideline in healthcare and clinical research, serious conceptual and methodological problems continue to plague this area. In an attempt to remedy this situation, we propose seven criteria that a quality-of-life concept must...... guided the design of a validated 5-item generic, global quality-of-life questionnaire (QOL5), and a validated 317-item generic, global quality-of-life questionnaire (SEQOL), administered to a well-documented birth cohort of 7,400 Danes born in 1959-1961, as well as to a reference sample of 2,500 Danes...

  7. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements....

  8. Measurement of Quality of Life I. A Methodological Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soren Ventegodt

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the widespread acceptance of quality of life (QOL as the ideal guideline in healthcare and clinical research, serious conceptual and methodological problems continue to plague this area. In an attempt to remedy this situation, we propose seven criteria that a quality-of-life concept must meet to provide a sound basis for investigation by questionnaire. The seven criteria or desiderata are: (1 an explicit definition of quality of life; (2 a coherent philosophy of human life from which the definition is derived; (3 a theory that operationalizes the philosophy by specifying unambiguous, nonoverlapping, and jointly exhaustive questionnaire items; (4 response alternatives that permit a fraction-scale interpretation; (5 technical checks of reproducibility; (6 meaningfulness to investigators, respondents, and users; and (7 an overall aesthetic appeal of the questionnaire. These criteria have guided the design of a validated 5-item generic, global quality-of-life questionnaire (QOL5, and a validated 317-item generic, global quality-of-life questionnaire (SEQOL, administered to a well-documented birth cohort of 7,400 Danes born in 1959�1961, as well as to a reference sample of 2,500 Danes. Presented in outline, the underlying integrative quality-of-life (IQOL theory is a meta-theory. To illustrate the seven criteria at work, we show the extent to which they are satisfied by one of the eight component theories. Next, two sample results of our investigation are presented: satisfaction with one's sex life has the expected covariation with one's quality of life, and so does mother's smoking during pregnancy, albeit to a much smaller extent. It is concluded that the methodological framework presented has proved helpful in designing a questionnaire that is capable of yielding acceptably valid and reliable measurements of global and generic quality of life.

  9. A new methodology for predictive tool wear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Won-Sik

    turned with various cutting conditions and the results were compared with the proposed analytical wear models. The crater surfaces after machining have been carefully studied to shed light on the physics behind the crater wear. In addition, the abrasive wear mechanism plays a major role in the development of crater wear. Laser shock processing (LSP) has been applied to locally relieve the deleterious tensile residual stresses on the crater surface of a coated tool, thus to improve the hardness of the coating. This thesis shows that LSP has indeed improve wear resistance of CVD coated alumina tool inserts, which has residual stress due to high processing temperature. LSP utilizes a very short laser pulse with high energy density, which induces high-pressure stress wave propagation. The residual stresses are relieved by incident shock waves on the coating surface. Residual stress levels of LSP CVD alumina-coated carbide insert were evaluated by the X-ray diffractometer. Based on these results, LSP parameters such as number of laser pulses and laser energy density can be controlled to reduce residual stress. Crater wear shows that the wear resistance increase with LSP treated tool inserts. Because the hardness data are used to predict the wear, the improvement in hardness and wear resistance shows that the mechanism of crater wear also involves abrasive wear.

  10. The origin of life and its methodological challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wächtershäuser, G

    1997-08-21

    The problem of the origin of life is discussed from a methodological point of view as an encounter between the teleological thinking of the historian and the mechanistic thinking of the chemist; and as the Kantian task of replacing teleology by mechanism. It is shown how the Popperian situational logic of historic understanding and the Popperian principle of explanatory power of scientific theories, when jointly applied to biochemistry, lead to a methodology of biochemical retrodiction, whereby common precursor functions are constructed for disparate successor functions. This methodology is exemplified by central tenets of the theory of the chemo-autotrophic origin of life: the proposal of a surface metabolism with a two-dimensional order; the basic polarity of life with negatively charged constituents on positively charged mineral surfaces; the surface-metabolic origin of phosphorylated sugar metabolism and nucleic acids; the origin of membrane lipids and of chemi-osmosis on pyrite surfaces; and the principles of the origin of the genetic machinery. The theory presents the early evolution of life as a process that begins with chemical necessity and winds up in genetic chance.

  11. Life Cycle Engineering – from methodology to enterprise culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Alting, Leo; Poll, Christian

    2003-01-01

    of methodologies and tools for life cycle assessment and development of more eco-efficient products, from complex to simplified, catering to the needs of especially small and medium-sized enterprizes. The tools and data are in place, but dissemination lacks behind. Propagation of life cycle thinking and life cycle......As part of a sustainable development, the environmental efficiency of industry must increase by a factor four to ten. This engenders attention to the environmental impact of products and technical systems over their entire life cycle. The last decade has seen the development of a number...... engineering to larger parts of industry is attempted by strengthening the market pull through integrated product policy measures, and at the same time pushing through information activities, training and dissemination of tools. Experience hitherto shows that these forces are insufficient and that stronger...

  12. A methodology to evaluate the fatigue life of flexible pipes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sousa, Fernando J.M. de; Sousa, Jose Renato M. de; Siqueira, Marcos Q. de; Sagrilo, Luis V.S. [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Lemos, Carlos Alberto D. de [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    This paper focus on a methodology to perform the fatigue analysis of flexible pipes. This methodology employs functions that convert forces and moments obtained in global analyses into stresses. The stresses are then processed by well-known cycle counting methods, and S-N curves evaluate the damage at several points in the pipe cross-section. Palmgren-Miner linear damage hypothesis is assumed in order to calculate the accumulated fatigue damage. A parametric study on the fatigue life of a flexible pipe employing this methodology is presented. The main points addressed in the study are the influence of friction between layers in the results, the importance of evaluating the fatigue life in various points of the pipe cross-section and the effect of different mean stress levels. The obtained results suggest that the consideration of friction effects strongly influences the fatigue life of flexible risers and these effects have to be accounted both in the global and local analyses of the riser. Moreover, mean stress effects are also significant and at least 8 equally spaced wires in each analyzed section of the riser must be considered in fatigue analyses. (author)

  13. FATIGUE LIFE PREDICTION THEORY OF COMPOSITE LAMINATES AND EXPERIMENTAL VERIFICATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    According to traditional phenomenological fatigue methodology and modern continuum damage mechanics theory, dual fatigue cumulative damage rules to predict fatigue damage formation and propagation lives of the notched composite laminates are presented.A 3-dimensional damage constitutive equation of anisotropic composites is also established.Damage strain energy release rate is interpreted as a driving force of the fatigue delamination damage propagation.A new damage evolution equation and a damage propagation (a-(m-N( surface (stress amplitude-mean stress-life surface) are derived.Hence, using the method above, the fatigue life of composite components can be predicted.Finally, theoretically predicted results are compared with experimental data.It is found that the deviation of theoretic prediction from experimental results is about 22%.

  14. Environmental sustainability modeling with exergy methodology for building life cycle

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘猛; 姚润明

    2009-01-01

    As an important human activity,the building industry has created comfortable space for living and work,and at the same time brought considerable pollution and huge consumption of energy and recourses. From 1990s after the first building environmental assessment model-BREEAM was released in the UK,a number of assessment models were formulated as analytical and practical in methodology respectively. This paper aims to introduce a generic model of exergy assessment on environmental impact of building life cycle,taking into consideration of previous models and focusing on natural environment as well as building life cycle,and three environmental impacts will be analyzed,namely energy embodied exergy,resource chemical exergy and abatement exergy on energy consumption,resource consumption and pollutant discharge respectively. The model of exergy assessment on environmental impact of building life cycle thus formulated contains two sub-models,one from the aspect of building energy utilization,and the other from building materials use. Combining theories by ecologists such as Odum,building environmental sustainability modeling with exergy methodology is put forward with the index of exergy footprint of building environmental impacts.

  15. LIFE PREDICTION APPROACH FOR RANDOM MULTIAXIAL FATIGUE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Lei; Wang Dejun

    2005-01-01

    According to the concept of critical plane, a life prediction approach for random multiaxial fatigue is presented. First, the critical plane under the multiaxial random loading is determined based on the concept of the weight-averaged maximum shear strain direction. Then the shear and normal strain histories on the determined critical plane are calculated and taken as the subject of multiaxial load simplifying and multiaxial cycle counting. Furthermore, a multiaxial fatigue life prediction model including the parameters resulted from multiaxial cycle counting is presented and applied to calculating the fatigue damage generated from each cycle. Finally, the cumulative damage is added up using Miner's linear rule, and the fatigue prediction life is given. The experiments under multiaxial loading blocks are used for the verification of the proposed method. The prediction has a good correction with the experimental results.

  16. Life cycle methodology for copper : allocation and recycling approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gobling-Reisemann, S. [Bremen Univ., Bremen (Germany). Faculty of Production Engineering; Tikana, L.; Sievers, H.; Klassert, A. [Deutsches Kupferinstitut, Dusseldorf (Germany). Life Cycle Centre

    2007-07-01

    This paper provided an overview of different methodologies available for recycling and assessing the life cycles of copper ores. Approaches towards allocation in life cycle assessments (LCA) included detailed modelling; system expansion; physical allocation; economic allocation; and subsequent-use allocation. Approaches towards recycling included system expansion, cut-off approaches, open loop approach; value corrected substitution; and the cascade approach. Sulphuric acid and steam are produced as by-products during copper production, and most copper ores contain molybdenum, gold, silver, and nickel. The environmental impacts of copper by-products must be considered when conducting LCAs. Existing standards allow different implementation methods for recycling and allocation into metal LCAs, and the selection of a methodology can significantly influence the ecological profile of copper and copper products. Allocation is needed when processes with more than 1 function are investigated. ISO standards recommend avoiding allocation problems by using detailed system modelling. Allocation factors should be chosen that reflect the physical relationship between the functional units produced and their associated environmental burdens. Case studies were presented to demonstrate allocations of co- and byproducts and recycling in copper production. 19 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs.

  17. Methodological Principles of Ethnic Minority Life Conditions Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantin KLOKOV

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The transition to the post-industrial society is connected with revaluation of non-material values which become cultural resources acquiring their social and economic measurement. The purpose of the research has been to find new methodological approach for better evaluation of positive and negative results of rapid social changes in local communities of small-numbered ethnic groups in remote areas of Siberia. Up to the present many of these communities have been keeping very specific subsistence economy connected with nomadic pastoralism, hunting and gathering. Now, their traditional values and way of life are endangered by rapid social changes caused mostly by industrial encroachment. The transdisciplinary research made a synthesis of social, economic and ecological approaches and was based on several case-studies. The new methodology for assessment of traditional ethnic groups’ life conditions takes into account that their living space emerged on the intersection of several semiotic systems routed in different value perspectives. The first one is a commonly used value system which includes income level, availability of the community services and other common living-standard criteria. The second one is a traditional value system based on internal ethnic criteria. Assessment of living conditions from external and internal standpoints may differ greatly. Author suggest to assess indigenous minorities life conditions using two scales simultaneously, one of which corresponds to universal assessment criteria, and the other – to ethno-specific criteria characteristic of a specific traditional culture. The new approach advocates for cautious decision making in regional politics and helps to reinforce active cultural security of indigenous minorities, i.e. to raise the ability of the cultural system itself to oppose different kinds of arising challenges.

  18. Towards an Airframe Noise Prediction Methodology: Survey of Current Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farassat, Fereidoun; Casper, Jay H.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we present a critical survey of the current airframe noise (AFN) prediction methodologies. Four methodologies are recognized. These are the fully analytic method, CFD combined with the acoustic analogy, the semi-empirical method and fully numerical method. It is argued that for the immediate need of the aircraft industry, the semi-empirical method based on recent high quality acoustic database is the best available method. The method based on CFD and the Ffowcs William- Hawkings (FW-H) equation with penetrable data surface (FW-Hpds ) has advanced considerably and much experience has been gained in its use. However, more research is needed in the near future particularly in the area of turbulence simulation. The fully numerical method will take longer to reach maturity. Based on the current trends, it is predicted that this method will eventually develop into the method of choice. Both the turbulence simulation and propagation methods need to develop more for this method to become useful. Nonetheless, the authors propose that the method based on a combination of numerical and analytical techniques, e.g., CFD combined with FW-H equation, should also be worked on. In this effort, the current symbolic algebra software will allow more analytical approaches to be incorporated into AFN prediction methods.

  19. Operational life prediction on gating image intensifier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yu-hui; Shen, Zhi-guo; Li, Zhong-li

    2009-07-01

    Operational life is one of the important parameters to evaluate second and super second generation image intensifiers. It can be used not only to monitor manufacturing technique in product line, then the technology on photocathode processing, MCP degassing and MCP producing can be adjusted promptly, but also to eliminate the image intensifiers which have hidden risk on operational life as early as possible. Recently gating image intensifiers are used widely, method to estimate the operational life of gating image intensifier related to its practical operate mode and working condition need to be established urgently. The least square method to analyze the operational life test data in product line was introduced in this paper. Now the data can be analyzed with convenient statistic analyze function on Excel. Using "worksheet function" and "chart wizard" and "data analysis" on Excel to do the least square method calculation, spreadsheets are established to do complex data calculation with worksheet functions. Based on them, formulas to monitor the technology parameters were derived, and the conclusion that the operational life was only related to the decrease slope of photocathode exponential fit curve was made. The decrease slope of photocathode sensitivity exponential fit curve and the decrease percent of the exponential fit photocathode sensitivity can be used to evaluate the qualification of the operational life rapidly. The mathematic models for operational life prediction on image intensifier and gating image intensifier are established respectively based on the acceptable values of the decrease percent of the exponential fit photocathode sensitivity and the expecting signal to noise ratio. The equations predicting the operational life related to duty cycle and input light level on gating image intensifier were derived, and the relationship between them were discussed too. The theory foundation were made herein, so the user can select proper gating image

  20. Proposition of Improved Methodology in Creep Life Extrapolation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Park, Jae Young; Jang, Jin Sung [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    To design SFRs for a 60-year operation, it is desirable to have the experimental creep-rupture data for Gr. 91 steel close to 20 y, or at least rupture lives significantly higher than 10{sup 5} h. This requirement arises from the fact that, for the creep design, a factor of 3 times for extrapolation is considered to be appropriate. However, obtaining experimental data close to 20 y would be expensive and also take considerable time. Therefore, reliable creep life extrapolation techniques become necessary for a safe design life of 60 y. In addition, it is appropriate to obtain experimental longterm creep-rupture data in the range 10{sup 5} ∼ 2x10{sup 5} h to improve the reliability of extrapolation. In the present investigation, a new function of a hyperbolic sine ('sinh') form for a master curve in time-temperature parameter (TTP) methods, was proposed to accurately extrapolate the long-term creep rupture stress of Gr. 91 steel. Constant values used for each parametric equation were optimized on the basis of the creep rupture data. Average stress values predicted for up to 60 y were evaluated and compared with those of French Nuclear Design Code, RCC-MRx. The results showed that the master curve of the 'sinh' function was a wider acceptance with good flexibility in the low stress ranges beyond the experimental data. It was clarified clarified that the 'sinh' function was reasonable in creep life extrapolation compared with polynomial forms, which have been used conventionally until now.

  1. New methodology for gas migration prediction before oil well cementing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinto, G.H.V.P.; Martins, A.L.; Rocha, J.M.S. [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], E-mail: gustavo_cep@yahoo.com.br; Martinelli, A.E. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), Natal, RN (Brazil)

    2012-04-15

    Many challenges have been presented in oil well drilling including preventing gas migration after cementing operations. This phenomenon is potentially dangerous since the gas can migrate to the surface causing the annular pressurization or lead to a blowout with catastrophic results that may include the loss of the well. If the hydrostatic pressure in front of the gas zone becomes lower than the pressure in this zone, the gas will invade the well. This work presents a comprehensive methodology to evaluate gas migration after cementing operations taking into account the critical static gel strength concept associated with time dependent viscosity behavior. A mechanistic model based on a force balance acting on gas bubble was proposed to predict the bubble displacement through the cement slurry while it gels and evaluate if the hydraulic isolation will be affected allowing project operation changes to ensure well construction safely. (author)

  2. A methodology for the prediction of offshore wind energy resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, S.J.; Watson, G.M. [Rutherford Appleton Lab., Oxfordshire (United Kingdom); Holt, R.J. [Univ. of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom)] Barthelmie, R.J. [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark); Zuylen, E.J. van [Ecofys Energy and Environment, Utrecht (Netherlands)] Cleijne, J.W. [Kema Sustainable, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    1999-03-01

    There are increasing constraints on the development of wind power on land. Recently, there has been a move to develop wind power offshore, though the amount of measured wind speed data at potential offshore wind farm sites is sparse. We present a novel methodology for the prediction of offshore wind power resources which is being applied to European Union waters. The first stage is to calculate the geostrophic wind from long-term pressure fields over the sea area of interest. Secondly, the geostrophic wind is transformed to the sea level using WA{sup s}P, taking account of near shore topography. Finally, these values are corrected for land/sea climatology (stability) effects using an analytical Coastal discontinuity Model (CDM). These values are further refined using high resolution offshore data at selected sites. The final values are validated against existing offshore datasets. Preliminary results are presented of the geostrophic wind speed validation in European Union waters. (au)

  3. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P; Diener, Ed

    2016-07-01

    Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as predictors of relationship, adjustment, self-worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilised multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Early adolescent positive affect predicted fewer relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, and greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers) and healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  4. Current status and future challenges in psychological research of sport injury prediction and prevention : a methodological perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Urban; Tranaeus, Ulrika; Ivarsson, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this critical review was to propose methodological developments in sport injury prediction and prevention research. Altogether, 24 studies (e.g., quantitative, qualitative, and prevention intervention studies) conducted from 2006 forward were analysed, related to the “stress-injury model.” The injury prediction studies were mostly based on prospective designs, using regression analysis, and studied trait anxiety and life stress. The qualitative studies used mainly thematic anal...

  5. A survey on life prediction of equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Changhua

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Once in the hands of end users, such durable equipment as spacecraft, aircraft, ships, automobiles, computers, etc. are in a state of debugging, working or storage. In either state, availability, reliability and super-efficiency are the ultimate goals, which have been achieved through constant monitoring as well as regular, preventive, routine and corrective maintenance. Although some advanced instruments can visualize certain invisible malfunctioning phenomena into visible ones, deeply hidden troubles cannot be found unless monitoring and testing data are addressed using tools that process the data statistically, analytically and mathematically. Some state-of-the-art trouble-shooting and life-predicting techniques and approaches are introduced in this paper.

  6. A survey on life prediction of equipment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hu Changhua; Zhou Zhijie; Zhang Jianxun; Si Xiaosheng

    2015-01-01

    Once in the hands of end users, such durable equipment as spacecraft, aircraft, ships, automobiles, computers, etc. are in a state of debugging, working or storage. In either state, avail-ability, reliability and super-efficiency are the ultimate goals, which have been achieved through constant monitoring as well as regular, preventive, routine and corrective maintenance. Although some advanced instruments can visualize certain invisible malfunctioning phenomena into visible ones, deeply hidden troubles cannot be found unless monitoring and testing data are addressed using tools that process the data statistically, analytically and mathematically. Some state-of-the-art trouble-shooting and life-predicting techniques and approaches are introduced in this paper.

  7. Life history theory and breast cancer risk: methodological and theoretical challenges: Response to "Is estrogen receptor negative breast cancer risk associated with a fast life history strategy?".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aktipis, Athena

    2016-01-01

    In a meta-analysis published by myself and co-authors, we report differences in the life history risk factors for estrogen receptor negative (ER-) and estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancers. Our meta-analysis did not find the association of ER- breast cancer risk with fast life history characteristics that Hidaka and Boddy suggest in their response to our article. There are a number of possible explanations for the differences between their conclusions and the conclusions we drew from our meta-analysis, including limitations of our meta-analysis and methodological challenges in measuring and categorizing estrogen receptor status. These challenges, along with the association of ER+ breast cancer with slow life history characteristics, may make it challenging to find a clear signal of ER- breast cancer with fast life history characteristics, even if that relationship does exist. The contradictory results regarding breast cancer risk and life history characteristics illustrate a more general challenge in evolutionary medicine: often different sub-theories in evolutionary biology make contradictory predictions about disease risk. In this case, life history models predict that breast cancer risk should increase with faster life history characteristics, while the evolutionary mismatch hypothesis predicts that breast cancer risk should increase with delayed reproduction. Whether life history tradeoffs contribute to ER- breast cancer is still an open question, but current models and several lines of evidence suggest that it is a possibility.

  8. Predicting targets of compounds against neurological diseases using cheminformatic methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolic, Katarina; Mavridis, Lazaros; Bautista-Aguilera, Oscar M; Marco-Contelles, José; Stark, Holger; do Carmo Carreiras, Maria; Rossi, Ilaria; Massarelli, Paola; Agbaba, Danica; Ramsay, Rona R; Mitchell, John B O

    2015-02-01

    Recently developed multi-targeted ligands are novel drug candidates able to interact with monoamine oxidase A and B; acetylcholinesterase and butyrylcholinesterase; or with histamine N-methyltransferase and histamine H3-receptor (H3R). These proteins are drug targets in the treatment of depression, Alzheimer's disease, obsessive disorders, and Parkinson's disease. A probabilistic method, the Parzen-Rosenblatt window approach, was used to build a "predictor" model using data collected from the ChEMBL database. The model can be used to predict both the primary pharmaceutical target and off-targets of a compound based on its structure. Molecular structures were represented based on the circular fingerprint methodology. The same approach was used to build a "predictor" model from the DrugBank dataset to determine the main pharmacological groups of the compound. The study of off-target interactions is now recognised as crucial to the understanding of both drug action and toxicology. Primary pharmaceutical targets and off-targets for the novel multi-target ligands were examined by use of the developed cheminformatic method. Several multi-target ligands were selected for further study, as compounds with possible additional beneficial pharmacological activities. The cheminformatic targets identifications were in agreement with four 3D-QSAR (H3R/D1R/D2R/5-HT2aR) models and by in vitro assays for serotonin 5-HT1a and 5-HT2a receptor binding of the most promising ligand (71/MBA-VEG8).

  9. Predicting targets of compounds against neurological diseases using cheminformatic methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolic, Katarina; Mavridis, Lazaros; Bautista-Aguilera, Oscar M.; Marco-Contelles, José; Stark, Holger; do Carmo Carreiras, Maria; Rossi, Ilaria; Massarelli, Paola; Agbaba, Danica; Ramsay, Rona R.; Mitchell, John B. O.

    2015-02-01

    Recently developed multi-targeted ligands are novel drug candidates able to interact with monoamine oxidase A and B; acetylcholinesterase and butyrylcholinesterase; or with histamine N-methyltransferase and histamine H3-receptor (H3R). These proteins are drug targets in the treatment of depression, Alzheimer's disease, obsessive disorders, and Parkinson's disease. A probabilistic method, the Parzen-Rosenblatt window approach, was used to build a "predictor" model using data collected from the ChEMBL database. The model can be used to predict both the primary pharmaceutical target and off-targets of a compound based on its structure. Molecular structures were represented based on the circular fingerprint methodology. The same approach was used to build a "predictor" model from the DrugBank dataset to determine the main pharmacological groups of the compound. The study of off-target interactions is now recognised as crucial to the understanding of both drug action and toxicology. Primary pharmaceutical targets and off-targets for the novel multi-target ligands were examined by use of the developed cheminformatic method. Several multi-target ligands were selected for further study, as compounds with possible additional beneficial pharmacological activities. The cheminformatic targets identifications were in agreement with four 3D-QSAR (H3R/D1R/D2R/5-HT2aR) models and by in vitro assays for serotonin 5-HT1a and 5-HT2a receptor binding of the most promising ligand ( 71/MBA-VEG8).

  10. Benchmark notch test for life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domas, P. A.; Yau, J.; Sharpe, W. N.; Ward, M.

    1982-01-01

    Aircraft gas turbine engine components are subjected to severe stress, temperature, and environmental conditions. Economic and reliabilty demands have prompted inordinate effort in development of analytic methods to predict stresses and strains in aircraft engines. There remains, however, the need to check or verify these analytical methodologies against actual experimental data measurements. The laser interferometric strain displacement gage was recognized as having the potential to accomplish this task and was employed in this program. The actual strains incurred at the root of a discontinuity in cyclically loaded test samples subjected to inelastic deformation at high temperature where creep deformation readily occur were measured. The steady-state, cyclic stress-strain response at the root of the discontinuity in the tested samples was analyzed for comparison with the measured results. A comprehensive set of local notch root strain measurements for a variety of load patterns in an Inconel 718 notch specimen at 649 C (1200 F) was obtained and documented using the laser interferometric strain displacement gage.

  11. Prediction Approach to Life on Wing for Civil Aeroengine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RONG Xiang; ZUO Hong-fu; ZHANG Hai-jun

    2008-01-01

    To reduce engine maintenance cost and support safe operation, a prediction method of engine life on wing was proposed. This method is a kind of regression model which is a function of the condition monitoring and failure data. Key causes of engine removals were analyzed, and the life limit due to performance deterioration was predicted by proportional hazards model. Then the scheduled removal causes were considered as constraints of engine life to predicte the final life on wing. Application of the proposed prediction method to the case of CF6-80C2A5 engine fleet in an airline proved its effectiveness.

  12. Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures With CARES/Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

    2003-01-01

    A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The methodology takes into account the changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e., changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

  13. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment: A Methodological Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Christensen, Frans Møller; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2001-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different tools in environmental management. The paper identifies harmonies, discrepancies and relations between the two tools exemplified by the risk assessment principles of the European Commission (EC) and the LCA method ‘EDIP’ (En-vironmental...... conditions. It is concluded that the conceptual background and the purpose of the tools are different but that there are overlaps where they may benefit from each other and they do complement each other in an overall environmental effort....... Design of Industrial Products) developed in Denmark, respectively. A very important feature of LCA is the relative assessment due to the use of a functional unit. Risk assessment on the other hand is an absolute assessment, which may require very specific and detailed information on e.g. the exposure...

  14. Life prediction of coated and uncoated metallic interconnect for solid oxide fuel cell applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. N.; Sun, X.; Stephens, E.; Khaleel, M. A.

    In this paper, we present an integrated experimental and modeling methodology in predicting the life of coated and uncoated metallic interconnect (IC) for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) applications. The ultimate goal is to provide cell designer and manufacture with a predictive methodology such that the life of the IC system can be managed and optimized through different coating thickness to meet the overall cell designed life. Crofer 22 APU is used as the example IC material system. The life of coated and uncoated Crofer 22 APU under isothermal cooling was predicted by comparing the predicted interfacial strength and the interfacial stresses induced by the cooling process from the operating temperature to room temperature, together with the measured oxide scale growth kinetics. It was found that the interfacial strength between the oxide scale and the Crofer 22 APU substrate decreases with the growth of the oxide scale, and that the interfacial strength for the oxide scale/spinel coating interface is much higher than that of the oxide scale/Crofer 22 APU substrate interface. As expected, the predicted life of the coated Crofer 22 APU is significantly longer than that of the uncoated Crofer 22 APU.

  15. Shelf-Life Prediction of Chilled Foods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudmundsson, Gudmundur; Kristbergsson, Kristberg

    All foods have a finite shelf life. Even foods, which mature with time, will in the end deteriorate, although their life span can exceed 100 years. Definitions of shelf life of food products differ. Some stress the suitability of the product for consump¬tion, others for how long the product can be sold. The Institute of Food Science and Technology emphasizes safety in its definition of shelf life: "The period of time under defined conditions of storage, after manufacture or packing, for which a food product will remain safe and be fit for use" ( http://www.ifst.org ). This definition does not describe what makes a food product "safe" or "fit" for use, but one can say all factors which restrict the shelf life of a food product either affect safety or quality or both.

  16. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    CERN Document Server

    Sinatra, Roberta

    2014-01-01

    Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are to a large extent predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two data sets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can to some extent be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions which contain information to best predict an individual's subsequent action are negative,...

  17. Fatigue Life Methodology for Tapered Hybrid Composite Flexbeams

    Science.gov (United States)

    urri, Gretchen B.; Schaff, Jeffery R.

    2006-01-01

    Nonlinear-tapered flexbeam specimens from a full-size composite helicopter rotor hub flexbeam were tested under combined constant axial tension and cyclic bending loads. Two different graphite/glass hybrid configurations tested under cyclic loading failed by delamination in the tapered region. A 2-D finite element model was developed which closely approximated the flexbeam geometry, boundary conditions, and loading. The analysis results from two geometrically nonlinear finite element codes, ANSYS and ABAQUS, are presented and compared. Strain energy release rates (G) associated with simulated delamination growth in the flexbeams are presented from both codes. These results compare well with each other and suggest that the initial delamination growth from the tip of the ply-drop toward the thick region of the flexbeam is strongly mode II. The peak calculated G values were used with material characterization data to calculate fatigue life curves for comparison with test data. A curve relating maximum surface strain to number of loading cycles at delamination onset compared well with the test results.

  18. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Sinatra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

  19. Actual service life prediction of building components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard, Niels-Jørgen; Brandt, Erik; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, sustainability and life cycle cost in the construction industry have been given great attention in many countries due to the heavy climatic and environmental impact from this sector. In Denmark, a sustainability certification scheme for buildings has been developed including...... such as economics, aesthetics and use of the building. Each of these factors is regarded as a stochastic variable and can be seen as competing causes of bringing service life to an end. A model is proposed for combining such variables resulting in the actual service life of building components. Furthermore...

  20. Predicting Battery Life for Electric UAVs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a novel battery health management technology for the new generation of electric unmanned aerial vehicles powered by long-life, high-density,...

  1. Application and limitations on thermal and spectroscopic methods for shelf-life prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woo, Lecon [Baxter Healthcare, Round Lake, IL 60073 (United States)]. E-mail: Wool@baxter.com; Ling, Michael T.K. [Baxter Healthcare, Round Lake, IL 60073 (United States); Eu, Bruce [Baxter Healthcare, Round Lake, IL 60073 (United States); Sandford, Craig [Baxter Healthcare, Round Lake, IL 60073 (United States)

    2006-03-15

    In medical products, shelf-life after thermoplastic processing and sterilization is important, and ionizing radiation has become a preferred sterilization mode for medical devices. We have employed successfully thermal analytical methods to predict shelf-life for many polyolefin materials. However, as the material of construction becoming more sophisticated: multiphase alloys and blends, multi-layer constructions, etc., issues existed that require clarification as to what extent these methodologies are applicable. We have employed thermal analytical methods in conjunction with other spectroscopic and morphological methods to study the applicability and limitation of these techniques. Results combined with real life and simulated aging experiments will be presented in this article.

  2. Predicting targets of compounds against neurological diseases using cheminformatic methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolic, Katarina; Mavridis, Lazaros; Bautista-Aguilera, Oscar M.; Marco-Contelles, Jose; Stark, Holger; Carreiras, Maria do Carmo; Rossi, Ilaria; Massarelli, Paola; Agbaba, Danica; Ramsay, Rona R.; Mitchell, John B. O.

    2015-01-01

    The authors acknowledge financial support from the Scottish Universities Life Sciences Alliance (SULSA). OMBA and JMC thank MINECO (Spain) for a fellowship, and support (SAF2012-33304), respectively. KN and DA acknowledge project supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia, Contract No. 172033. Further supports by Else Kroner-Fresenius-Stiftung, Translational Research Innovation—Pharma (TRIP), Fraunhofer-Projektgruppe fur Translationale Medizin und Pharmakolog...

  3. A methodology for noise prediction of turbofan engines.

    OpenAIRE

    Gustavo Di Fiore dos Santos

    2006-01-01

    A computional model is developed for prediction of noise emission from na existing or new turbofan engine. This model allows the simulation of noise generation from high bypass ratio turbofan engines, appropriate for use with computational programs for gas turbine performance developed at ITA. Analytical and empirical methods are used for spectrum shape, spectrum level, overall noise and free-field directivity noise. The most significant noise sources in turbofan engines are modeled: fan, com...

  4. Life prediction of thermal-mechanical fatigue using strainrange partitioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halford, G. R.; Manson, S. S.

    1975-01-01

    This paper describes the applicability of the method of Strainrange Partitioning to the life prediction of thermal-mechanical strain-cycling fatigue. An in-phase test on 316 stainless steel is analyzed as an illustrative example. The observed life is in excellent agreement with the life predicted by the method using the recently proposed Step-Stress Method of experimental partitioning, the Interaction Damage Rule, and the life relationships determined at an isothermal temperature of 705 C. Implications of the present study are discussed relative to the general thermal fatigue problem.

  5. Investigation of Accelerated Life Prediction Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-10-01

    1974, AD 784 188. 2. Rabinowicz , E., McEntire, R. H., and Shwalkar, B., A TECHNIQUE FOR ACCELERATED LIFE TESTING, Trans. ASME, August 1970, pp...706-710. 3. Rabinowicz , E., FRICTION AND WEAR OF MATERIALS, New York, John Wiley and Sons, 1966. 4. MacGregor, C. W. (ed), HANDBOOK OF

  6. Life prediction of Ni-base superalloy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Aghaie-Khafri; M Noori

    2011-04-01

    Rene 80 samples were creep–rupture tested in air between 1144 and 1255 K at various stress levels. The mean stress exponent, , and the mean activation energy for creep were calculated from the experimental results. The accelerated creep life of the alloy was evaluated by using iso-stress parametric equations and Monkman–Grant method.

  7. The Methodology of Testability Prediction for Sequential Circuits

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐拾义; 陈斯

    1996-01-01

    Increasingly,test generation algorithms are being developed with the continuous creations of incredibly sophisticated computing systems.Of all the developments of testable as well as reliable designs for computing systems,the test generation for sequential circuits is usually viewed as one of the hard nuts to be solved for its complexity and time-consuming issue.Although dozens of algorithms have been proposed to cope with this issue,it still remains much to be desired in solving such problems as to determin 1) which of the existing test generation algorithms could be the most efficient for some particular circuits(by efficiency,we mean the Fault Coverage the algorithm offers,CPU time when executing,the number of test patterns to be applied,ectc.)since different algorithms would be preferable for different circuits;2)which parameters(such as the number of gates,flip-flops and loops,etc., in the circuit)will have the most or least influences on test generation so that the designers of circuits can have a global understanding during the stage of designing for testability.Testability forecastin methodology for the sequential circuits using regression models is presented which a user usually needs for analyzing his own circuits and selecting the most suitable test generation algorithm from all possible algorithms available.Some examples and experiment results are also provided in order to show how helpful and practical the method is.

  8. Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer, Jordi; Prats, Clara; López, Daniel; Vives-Rego, Josep

    2009-08-31

    Predictive microbiology is the area of food microbiology that attempts to forecast the quantitative evolution of microbial populations over time. This is achieved to a great extent through models that include the mechanisms governing population dynamics. Traditionally, the models used in predictive microbiology are whole-system continuous models that describe population dynamics by means of equations applied to extensive or averaged variables of the whole system. Many existing models can be classified by specific criteria. We can distinguish between survival and growth models by seeing whether they tackle mortality or cell duplication. We can distinguish between empirical (phenomenological) models, which mathematically describe specific behaviour, and theoretical (mechanistic) models with a biological basis, which search for the underlying mechanisms driving already observed phenomena. We can also distinguish between primary, secondary and tertiary models, by examining their treatment of the effects of external factors and constraints on the microbial community. Recently, the use of spatially explicit Individual-based Models (IbMs) has spread through predictive microbiology, due to the current technological capacity of performing measurements on single individual cells and thanks to the consolidation of computational modelling. Spatially explicit IbMs are bottom-up approaches to microbial communities that build bridges between the description of micro-organisms at the cell level and macroscopic observations at the population level. They provide greater insight into the mesoscale phenomena that link unicellular and population levels. Every model is built in response to a particular question and with different aims. Even so, in this research we conducted a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the different approaches (population continuous modelling and Individual-based Modelling), which we hope will be helpful for current and future

  9. Methodology for establishing life curves based on condition monitoring data and expert judgements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eggen, Arnt Ove; Welte, Thomas; Susa, Dejan

    2010-04-15

    Remaining lifetime and probability of failure of components in the power system are important issues for planning of maintenance and refurbishment. The concept of life curves provides an approach to utilize information about the technical condition (condition states) for modelling component degradation and for calculation of remaining lifetime and failure probability. This technical report describes methodologies for establishing life curves based on condition monitoring data and/or expert judgement. The methodologies presented in this report can be applied for different types of components and failure mechanisms. Thus, life curves provide a generic approach for degradation and lifetime modelling. The report describes methodologies that can be used to established life curves based on different sources of information, such as judgements provided by one or several experts, or condition monitoring data. Furthermore, establishing life curves using a combination of expert judgments and condition monitoring data is also described. Because different failure mechanisms and components are assessed separately by the life curve approach, the report also shows how analysis results can be aggregated. In addition, references are given to tools and software prototypes that can be used to establish the life curves, to calculate failure probability and remaining lifetime, and to aggregate the results. The report also presents a number of examples of life curves for selected components and failure mechanisms. The examples include different components of power transformers and circuit breakers. Furthermore, a study on water tree degraded XLPE cables and case study on wood poles are presented. These examples show the use of the life curve approach and can be used as basis for an own analysis. A file is attached to this report where some of the life curve examples are collected. (Author)

  10. ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF USAGE METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruslan Valentinovich Druzin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of the most common foreign methods showed that they were designed to analyze enterprises in the sustainable economic development with low-shadowing of the economy. The most appropriate retrospective analysis results were obtained using Springate model, Lis ratio and Beaver ratio. Domestic methods analysis allows us to conclude that they make it difficult to account criterion of insolvency using a number of factors. Ukrainian researchers, as well as foreigners, use indexes for bankruptcy prediction that are based on convolution values of different insolvency signs. However, we believe that usage of a single indicator as a result doesn’t allow us to make an insolvency diagnosis. The reason is high probability of an erroneous calculation because of the unreliability of the data used. Also, one of domestic methods problems is their orientation to the official statistics that increases the error due to significant domestic shadowing economy.

  11. Enhanced Prediction of Gear Tooth Surface Fatigue Life Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sentient will develop an enhanced prediction of gear tooth surface fatigue life with rigorous analysis of the tribological phenomena that contribute to pitting...

  12. Translating Oral Health-Related Quality of Life Measures: Are There Alternative Methodologies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brondani, Mario; He, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Translating existing sociodental indicators to another language involves a rigorous methodology, which can be costly. Free-of-charge online translator tools are available, but have not been evaluated in the context of research involving quality of life measures. To explore the value of using online translator tools to develop oral health-related…

  13. Translating Oral Health-Related Quality of Life Measures: Are There Alternative Methodologies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brondani, Mario; He, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Translating existing sociodental indicators to another language involves a rigorous methodology, which can be costly. Free-of-charge online translator tools are available, but have not been evaluated in the context of research involving quality of life measures. To explore the value of using online translator tools to develop oral health-related…

  14. Acquisition and data analysis of storage tank bottoms for life prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aparecido da Silva, M. [Petroquimica Uniao, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Tus, R. [Rosen Europe, Oldenzaal (Netherlands)

    2006-07-01

    Several techniques can be used to develop important life prediction information regarding structural conditions of storage tank bottoms. However, there is a limited availability of test that can be obtained from in service structural components. The reasons for applying life prediction methodology to aging storage tanks: more stringent safety and environment regulations, avoid costly forced outages, the limited availability of construction sites for new tanks, the expense of constructing, etc. The cause for applying life prediction methodology in aging tanks is material degradation. Nondestructive evaluation technique for characterizing and sizing important mechanical conditions in storage tank bottoms have been developed by the Company Rosen Inspection Technologies. The Tank Bottom Inspection Tool (TBIT) is capable to detect, data collecting and sizing in real time oriented flaws defects as well as metal loss features with length of 03 mm and depth of 50%. The technique based in high resolution MFL (Magnetic Flux Leakage) was applied in a petrochemical storage tank and compared with visual and dimensional analysis. The results show accurate information for predicting life. (orig.)

  15. A predictive fatigue life model for anodized 7050 aluminium alloy

    OpenAIRE

    Chaussumier, Michel; Mabru, Catherine; Shahzad, Majid; Chieragatti, Rémy; Rezaï-Aria, Farhad

    2013-01-01

    International audience; The objective of this study is to predict fatigue life of anodized 7050 aluminum alloy specimens. In the case of anodized 7050-T7451 alloy, fractographic observations of fatigue tested specimens showed that pickling pits were the predominant sites for crack nucleation and subsequent failure. It has been shown that fatigue failure was favored by the presence of multiple cracks. From these experimental results, a fatigue life predictive model has been developed including...

  16. Service life prediction of exterior plastics vision for the future

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Jon; Chapin, J

    2015-01-01

    This book defines the current state-of-the-art for predicting the lifetime of plastics exposed to weather and outlines future research needed to advance this important field of study. Coverage includes progress in developing new science and test methods to determine how materials respond to weather exposure. This book is ideal for researchers and professionals working in the field of service life prediction. This book also: Examines numerous consensus standards that affect commercial products allowing readers to see the future of standards related to service life prediction Provides the scientific foundation for the latest commercially viable instruments Presents groundbreaking research, including the blueprint of a new test method that will significantly shorten the service life prediction process time Covers two of the latest verified predictive models, which demonstrate realized-potential to transform the field

  17. Predicting life satisfaction of the Angolan elderly: a structural model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez, M; Tomás, J M; Galiana, L; Sancho, P; Cebrià, M A

    2013-01-01

    Satisfaction with life is of particular interest in the study of old age well-being because it has arisen as an important component of old age. A considerable amount of research has been done to explain life satisfaction in the elderly, and there is growing empirical evidence on best predictors of life satisfaction. This research evaluates the predictive power of some aging process variables, on Angolan elderly people's life satisfaction, while including perceived health into the model. Data for this research come from a cross-sectional survey of elderly people living in the capital of Angola, Luanda. A total of 1003 Angolan elderly were surveyed on socio-demographic information, perceived health, active engagement, generativity, and life satisfaction. A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes model was built to test variables' predictive power on life satisfaction. The estimated theoretical model fitted the data well. The main predictors were those related to active engagement with others. Perceived health also had a significant and positive effect on life satisfaction. Several processes together may predict life satisfaction in the elderly population of Angola, and the variance accounted for it is large enough to be considered relevant. The key factor associated to life satisfaction seems to be active engagement with others.

  18. Generation of Finite Life Distributional Goodman Diagrams for Reliability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kececioglu, D.; Guerrieri, W. N.

    1971-01-01

    The methodology of developing finite life distributional Goodman diagrams and surfaces is described for presenting allowable combinations of alternating stress and mean stress to the design engineer. The combined stress condition is that of an alternating bending stress and a constant shear stress. The finite life Goodman diagrams and surfaces are created from strength distributions developed at various ratios of alternating to mean stress at particular cycle life values. The conclusions indicate that the Von Mises-Hencky ellipse, for cycle life values above 1000 cycles, is an adequate model of the finite life Goodman diagram. In addition, suggestions are made which reduce the number of experimental data points required in a fatigue data acquisition program.

  19. Life cycle sustainability of solid oxide fuel cells: From methodological aspects to system implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmeti, Andi; McPhail, Stephen J.; Pumiglia, Davide; Carlini, Maurizio

    2016-09-01

    This study reviews the status of life cycle assessment (LCA) of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) and methodological aspects, communicates SOFC environmental performance, and compares the environmental performance with competing power production technologies using a life cycle perspective. Results indicate that power generation using SOFCs can make a significant contribution to the aspired-to greener energy future. Despite superior environmental performance, empirical studies indicate that economic performance is predominantly the highest-ranked criterion in the decision making process. Future LCA studies should attempt to employ comprehensive dynamic multi-criteria environmental impact analysis coupled with economic aspects, to allow a robust comparison of results. A methodology framework is proposed to achieve simultaneously ambitious socio-economic and environmental objectives considering all life cycle stages and their impacts.

  20. Challenges in implementing a Planetary Boundaries based Life-Cycle Impact Assessment methodology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryberg, Morten; Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Richardson, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    of resolving the challenges and developing such methodology is discussed. The challenges are related to technical issues, i.e., modelling and including the Earth System processes and their control variables as impact categories in Life-Cycle Impact Assessment and to theoretical considerations with respect...... to the interpretation and use of Life-Cycle Assessment results in accordance with the Planetary Boundary framework. The identified challenges require additional research before a Planetary Boundaries based Life-Cycle Impact Assessment method can be developed. Research on modelling the impacts on Earth System processes......, for a number of processes which are essential for maintaining the Earth System in its present state. Life-Cycle Assessment was identified as a suitable tool for linking human activities to the Planetary Boundaries. However, to facilitate proper use of Life-Cycle Assessment for non-global environmental...

  1. Predicting pilot error: testing a new methodology and a multi-methods and analysts approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanton, Neville A; Salmon, Paul; Harris, Don; Marshall, Andrew; Demagalski, Jason; Young, Mark S; Waldmann, Thomas; Dekker, Sidney

    2009-05-01

    The Human Error Template (HET) is a recently developed methodology for predicting design-induced pilot error. This article describes a validation study undertaken to compare the performance of HET against three contemporary Human Error Identification (HEI) approaches when used to predict pilot errors for an approach and landing task and also to compare analyst error predictions to an approach to enhancing error prediction sensitivity: the multiple analysts and methods approach, whereby multiple analyst predictions using a range of HEI techniques are pooled. The findings indicate that, of the four methodologies used in isolation, analysts using the HET methodology offered the most accurate error predictions, and also that the multiple analysts and methods approach was more successful overall in terms of error prediction sensitivity than the three other methods but not the HET approach. The results suggest that when predicting design-induced error, it is appropriate to use a toolkit of different HEI approaches and multiple analysts in order to heighten error prediction sensitivity.

  2. Beyond integrating social sciences: Reflecting on the place of life sciences in empirical bioethics methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertz, Marcel; Schildmann, Jan

    2017-07-21

    Empirical bioethics is commonly understood as integrating empirical research with normative-ethical research in order to address an ethical issue. Methodological analyses in empirical bioethics mainly focus on the integration of socio-empirical sciences (e.g. sociology or psychology) and normative ethics. But while there are numerous multidisciplinary research projects combining life sciences and normative ethics, there is few explicit methodological reflection on how to integrate both fields, or about the goals and rationales of such interdisciplinary cooperation. In this paper we will review some drivers for the tendency of empirical bioethics methodologies to focus on the collaboration of normative ethics with particularly social sciences. Subsequently, we argue that the ends of empirical bioethics, not the empirical methods, are decisive for the question of which empirical disciplines can contribute to empirical bioethics in a meaningful way. Using already existing types of research integration as a springboard, five possible types of research which encompass life sciences and normative analysis will illustrate how such cooperation can be conceptualized from a methodological perspective within empirical bioethics. We will conclude with a reflection on the limitations and challenges of empirical bioethics research that integrates life sciences.

  3. PRODUCT DATA PREDICTION WITH UNCERTAINTY IN PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE DESIGN

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Suiran; Wang Chengtao; Kimura Fumihiko

    2003-01-01

    Various kinds of data are used in new product design and more accurate data make the design results more reliable. Even though part of product data can be available directly from the existing similar products, there still leaves a great deal of data unavailable. This makes data prediction a valuable work. A method that can predict data of product under development based on the existing similar products is proposed. Fuzzy theory is used to deal with the uncertainties in data prediction process. The proposed method can be used in life cycle design, life cycle assessment (LCA) etc. Case study on current refrigerator is used as a demonstration example.

  4. Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

    2012-01-01

    The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

  5. Predicting young children's quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jirojanakul, Pragai; Skevington, Suzanne M; Hudson, John

    2003-10-01

    This paper represents an investigation into the determinants of young children's quality of life (QOL) in Thailand. The empirical work is based upon a sample of 498 children (aged 5-8); 220 were urban children and 278 children of construction workers in Bangkok. Their QOL was assessed using a new self-report QOL measure for children. Multiple regression analyses indicated that the father's income and education, type of school, mode of transportation to school, and the amount of time that the child spent on extra study courses were significant explanatory variables. It was found that these factors had different influences on the QOL of urban children and those of construction workers. Extra sport-related activities and extra work (other than housework) improved the QOL of urban children, while the QOL of construction workers' children was directly linked to father's education and income. This result is consistent with income having a diminishing marginal effect on the QOL of children. There is also evidence that amongst construction workers' children, boys have a lower QOL than girls. The different causal explanations for the QOL of urban and construction workers' children suggests that it is context specific, and what impacts one group of children's QOL within a particular context may not impact another group in a different situation. This has important policy implications. Throughout the study we could find no significant impact of health on QOL-neither chronic, acute nor severe illness has any significant impact on QOL. This is consistent with the hypothesis that QOL is influenced by expectations (Social Science and Medicine 41 (10) (1995) 1403). Findings of the effects of social and environmental factors on children's QOL are new in this field and should be further investigated.

  6. Neural Network Modeling to Predict Shelf Life of Greenhouse Lettuce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Chin Lin

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse-grown butter lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. can potentially be stored for 21 days at constant 0°C. When storage temperature was increased to 5°C or 10°C, shelf life was shortened to 14 or 10 days, respectively, in our previous observations. Also, commercial shelf life of 7 to 10 days is common, due to postharvest temperature fluctuations. The objective of this study was to establish neural network (NN models to predict the remaining shelf life (RSL under fluctuating postharvest temperatures. A box of 12 - 24 lettuce heads constituted a sample unit. The end of the shelf life of each head was determined when it showed initial signs of decay or yellowing. Air temperatures inside a shipping box were recorded. Daily average temperatures in storage and averaged shelf life of each box were used as inputs, and the RSL was modeled as an output. An R2 of 0.57 could be observed when a simple NN structure was employed. Since the "future" (or remaining storage temperatures were unavailable at the time of making a prediction, a second NN model was introduced to accommodate a range of future temperatures and associated shelf lives. Using such 2-stage NN models, an R2 of 0.61 could be achieved for predicting RSL. This study indicated that NN modeling has potential for cold chain quality control and shelf life prediction.

  7. Analysis of the link between a definition of sustainability and the life cycle methodologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Andreas; Herrmann, Ivan Tengbjerg; Bjørn, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , is presented and detailed to a level enabling an analysis of the relation to the impact categories at midpoint level considered in life cycle (LC) methodologies.The interpretation of the definition of sustainability as outlined in Our Common Future (WCED 1987) suggests that the assessment of a product......'s sustainability is about addressing the extent to which product life cycles affect poverty levels among the current generation, as well as changes in the level of natural, human and produced and social capital available for the future population. It is shown that the extent to which product life cycles affect...... poverty to some extent is covered by impact categories included in existing SLCA approaches. It is also found that the extent to which product life cycles affect natural capital is well covered by LCA, and human capital is covered by both LCA and SLCA but in different ways. Produced capital is not to any...

  8. Typology of end-of-life priorities in Saudi females: averaging analysis and Q-methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammami MM

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Muhammad M Hammami,1,2 Safa Hammami,1 Hala A Amer,1 Nesrine A Khodr1 1Clinical Studies and Empirical Ethics Department, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, 2College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Background: Understanding culture-and sex-related end-of-life preferences is essential to provide quality end-of-life care. We have previously explored end-of-life choices in Saudi males and found important culture-related differences and that Q-methodology is useful in identifying intraculture, opinion-based groups. Here, we explore Saudi females’ end-of-life choices.Methods: A volunteer sample of 68 females rank-ordered 47 opinion statements on end-of-life issues into a nine-category symmetrical distribution. The ranking scores of the statements were analyzed by averaging analysis and Q-methodology.Results: The mean age of the females in the sample was 30.3 years (range, 19–55 years. Among them, 51% reported average religiosity, 78% reported very good health, 79% reported very good life quality, and 100% reported high-school education or more. The extreme five overall priorities were to be able to say the statement of faith, be at peace with God, die without having the body exposed, maintain dignity, and resolve all conflicts. The extreme five overall dis-priorities were to die in the hospital, die well dressed, be informed about impending death by family/friends rather than doctor, die at peak of life, and not know if one has a fatal illness. Q-methodology identified five opinion-based groups with qualitatively different characteristics: “physical and emotional privacy concerned, family caring” (younger, lower religiosity, “whole person” (higher religiosity, “pain and informational privacy concerned” (lower life quality, “decisional privacy concerned” (older, higher life quality, and “life quantity concerned, family dependent” (high life quality, low life satisfaction. Out of the

  9. Fracture Mechanics Prediction of Fatigue Life of Aluminum Highway Bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rom, Søren; Agerskov, Henning

    2015-01-01

    Fracture mechanics prediction of the fatigue life of aluminum highway bridges under random loading is studied. The fatigue life of welded joints has been determined from fracture mechanics analyses and the results obtained have been compared with results from experimental investigations. The fati......Fracture mechanics prediction of the fatigue life of aluminum highway bridges under random loading is studied. The fatigue life of welded joints has been determined from fracture mechanics analyses and the results obtained have been compared with results from experimental investigations...... against fatigue in aluminum bridges, may give results which are unconservative. Furthermore, it was in both investigations found that the validity of the results obtained from Miner's rule will depend on the distribution of the load history in tension and compression....

  10. Life Prediction on a T700 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Cylinder with Limited Accelerated Life Testing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Xiaobing

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An accelerated life testing investigation was conducted on a composite cylinder that consists of aluminum alloy and T700 carbon fiber. The ultimate failure stress predictions of cylinders were obtained by the mixing rule and verified by the blasting static pressure method. Based on the stress prediction of cylinder under working conditions, the constant stress accelerated life test of the cylinder was designed. However, the failure data cannot be sufficiently obtained by the accelerated life test due to the time limitation. Therefore, most of the data presented to be high censored in high stress level and zero-failure data in low stress level. When using the traditional method for rupture life prediction, the results showed to be of lower confidence. In this study, the consistency of failure mechanism for carbon fiber and cylinder was analyzed firstly. According to the analysis result, the statistical test information of carbon fiber could be utilized for the accelerated model constitution. Then, rupture life prediction method for cylinder was proposed based on the accelerated life test data and carbon fiber test data. In this way, the life prediction accuracy of cylinder could be improved obviously, and the results showed that the accuracy of this method increased by 35%.

  11. Models of expected returns on the brazilian market: Empirical tests using predictive methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Mussa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Predictive methodologies for test of the expected returns models are largely diffused on the international academic environment. However, these methods have not been used in Brazil in a systematic way. Generally, empirical studies proceeded with Brazilian stock market data are concentrated only in the first step of these methodologies. The purpose of this article was test and compare the models CAPM, 3-factors and 4-factors using a predictive methodology, considering two steps – temporal and cross-section regressions – with standard errors obtained by the techniques of Fama and Macbeth (1973. The results indicated the superiority of the 4-fators model as compared to the 3-fators model, and the superiority of the 3- factors model as compared to the CAPM, but no one of the tested models were enough on the explanation of the Brazilian stock returns. Contrary to some empirical evidences, that do not use predictive methodology, the size and momentum effect seem do not exist on the Brazilian capital markets, but there are evidences of the value effect and the relevance of the market for explanation of expected returns. These finds rise some questions, mainly caused by the originality of the methodology on the local market and by the fact that this subject is still incipient and polemic on the Brazilian academic environment.

  12. Prediction Methodology for Proton Single Event Burnout: Application to a STRIPFET Device

    CERN Document Server

    Siconolfi, Sara; Oser, Pascal; Spiezia, Giovanni; Hubert, Guillaume; David, Jean-Pierre

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a single event burnout (SEB) sensitivity characterization for power MOSFETs, independent from tests, through a prediction model issued from TCAD analysis and the knowledge of device topology. The methodology is applied to a STRIPFET device and compared to proton data obtained at PSI, showing a good agreement in the order of magnitude of proton SEB cross section, and thus validating the prediction model as an alternative device characterization with respect to SEB.

  13. Reengineering Aircraft Structural Life Prediction Using a Digital Twin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric J. Tuegel

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Reengineering of the aircraft structural life prediction process to fully exploit advances in very high performance digital computing is proposed. The proposed process utilizes an ultrahigh fidelity model of individual aircraft by tail number, a Digital Twin, to integrate computation of structural deflections and temperatures in response to flight conditions, with resulting local damage and material state evolution. A conceptual model of how the Digital Twin can be used for predicting the life of aircraft structure and assuring its structural integrity is presented. The technical challenges to developing and deploying a Digital Twin are discussed in detail.

  14. Methodology for Predicting Flammable Gas Mixtures in Double Contained Receiver Tanks [SEC 1 THRU SEC 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HEDENGREN, D.C.

    2000-01-31

    This methodology document provides an estimate of the maximum concentrations of flammable gases (ammonia, hydrogen, and methane) which could exist in the vapor space of a double-contained receiver tank (DCRT) from the simultaneous saltwell pumping of one or more single-shell tanks (SSTs). This document expands Calculation Note 118 (Hedengren et a1 1997) and removes some of the conservatism from it, especially in vapor phase ammonia predictions. The methodologies of Calculation Note 118 (Hedengren et a1 1997) are essentially identical for predicting flammable gas mixtures in DCRTs from saltwell pumping for low DCRT ventilation rates, 1e, < 1 cfm. The hydrogen generation model has also been updated in the methodology of this document.

  15. Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis addresses the service life concept on the fibre reinforced cementitious composites. The advantages and problems of adding fibre to a cementitious matrix and the influence on service life are described. In SBI Report 221, Service life prediction and cementitious somposites......, the factors affecting the pure cementitious composite are described. Different sizes and types of fibre reinforced crmentitious composites have been chosen to illustrate different ageing and deterioration mechanisms. Some ageing mechanisms can be accelerated and others cannot which is demonstrated in a test...

  16. Reengineering Aircraft Structural Life Prediction Using a Digital Twin

    OpenAIRE

    Eric J. Tuegel; Anthony R. Ingraffea; Eason, Thomas G.; S. Michael Spottswood

    2011-01-01

    Reengineering of the aircraft structural life prediction process to fully exploit advances in very high performance digital computing is proposed. The proposed process utilizes an ultrahigh fidelity model of individual aircraft by tail number, a Digital Twin, to integrate computation of structural deflections and temperatures in response to flight conditions, with resulting local damage and material state evolution. A conceptual model of how the Digital Twin can be used for predicting the lif...

  17. Regionalized life cycle assessment: computational methodology and application to inventory databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutel, Christopher L; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2009-08-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have shown that site-dependent impact assessment for categories like acidification and eutrophication give more accurate and realistic results than site-generic assessments. To date, existing geography-specific, or regionalized, impact assessment factors have not been applied to LCA databases and software tools. We describe a simple, generic methodology to couple existing regionalized characterization factors with large life cycle inventory databases. This approach allows for detailed geographic life cycle impact assessment results. Case-study results for European country-specific electricity mixes are calculated using the Ecoinvent 2.01 database and the EDIP 2003 and Accumulated Exceedance impact assessment methods and CASES project external energy cost characterization factors. In most cases, regionalization shows different total scores, different processes of high importance, and varying geographic distributions of environmental impacts. As the methodology requires no additional input other than the geographic information already in existing LCA databases, it can be used routinely. Better and more consistent geographic information in life cycle inventory databases and impact assessment methods, tailored to the specific spatial range of all environmental effects considered, would be beneficial.

  18. Physical/chemical modeling for photovoltaic module life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moacanin, J.; Carroll, W. F.; Gupta, A.

    1979-01-01

    The paper presents a generalized methodology for identification and evaluation of potential degradation and failure of terrestrial photovoltaic encapsulation. Failure progression modeling and an interaction matrix are utilized to complement the conventional approach to failure degradation mode identification. Comparison of the predicted performance based on these models can produce: (1) constraints on system or component design, materials or operating conditions, (2) qualification (predicted satisfactory function), and (3) uncertainty. The approach has been applied to an investigation of an unexpected delamination failure; it is being used to evaluate thermomechanical interactions in photovoltaic modules and to study corrosion of contacts and interconnects.

  19. Investigating epigenetic consequences of early-life adversity: some methodological considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura M. Fiori

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Stressful and traumatic events occurring during early childhood have been consistently associated with the development of psychiatric disorders later in life. This relationship may be mediated in part by epigenetic mechanisms, such as DNA methylation, which are influenced by the early-life environment. Epigenetic patterns can have lifelong effects on gene expression and on the functioning of biological processes relevant to stress reactivity and psychopathology. Optimization of epigenetic research activity necessitates a discussion surrounding the methodologies used for DNA methylation analysis, selection of tissue sources, and timing of psychological and biological assessments. Recent studies related to early-life adversity and methylation, including both candidate gene and epigenome-wide association studies, have drawn from the variety of available techniques to generate interesting data in the field. Further discussion is warranted to address the limitations inherent to this field of research, along with future directions for epigenetic studies of adversity-related psychopathology.

  20. Optimization Parameters of tool life Model Using the Taguchi Approach and Response Surface Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kompan Chomsamutr

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to compare the cutting parameters of turning operation the work pieces of medium carbon steel (AISI 1045 by finding the longest tool life by Taguchi methods and Response Surface Methodology: RSM. This research is to test the collecting data by Taguchi method. The analyses of the impact among the factors are the depth of cut, cutting speed and feed rate. This research found that the most suitable response value; and tool life methods give the same suitable values, i.e. feed rate at 0.10 mm/rev, cutting speed at 150 m/min, and depth of cut at 0.5 mm, which is the value of longest tool life at 670.170 min, while the average error is by RSM at the percentage of 0.07 as relative to the testing value.

  1. Methodologies for predicting the part-load performance of aero-derivative gas turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haglind, Fredrik; Elmegaard, Brian

    2009-01-01

    on methodologies for predicting part-load performance of aero-derivative gas turbines. Two different design models – one simple and one more complex – are created. Subsequently, for each of these models, the part-load performance is predicted using component maps and turbine constants, respectively. Comparisons...... with manufacturer data are made. With respect to the design models, the simple model, featuring a compressor, combustor and turbines, results in equally good performance prediction in terms of thermal efficiency and exhaust temperature as does a more complex model. As for part-load predictions, the results suggest...... that the mass flow and pressure ratio characteristics can be well predicted with both methods. The thermal efficiency and exhaust temperature, however, are not well predicted below 60–70% load when using turbine constants and assuming constant efficiencies for turbomachinery....

  2. Slow Crack Growth and Fatigue Life Prediction of Ceramic Components Subjected to Variable Load History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jadaan, Osama

    2001-01-01

    Present capabilities of the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code include probabilistic life prediction of ceramic components subjected to fast fracture, slow crack growth (stress corrosion), and cyclic fatigue failure modes. Currently, this code has the capability to compute the time-dependent reliability of ceramic structures subjected to simple time-dependent loading. For example, in slow crack growth (SCG) type failure conditions CARES/Life can handle the cases of sustained and linearly increasing time-dependent loads, while for cyclic fatigue applications various types of repetitive constant amplitude loads can be accounted for. In real applications applied loads are rarely that simple, but rather vary with time in more complex ways such as, for example, engine start up, shut down, and dynamic and vibrational loads. In addition, when a given component is subjected to transient environmental and or thermal conditions, the material properties also vary with time. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a methodology capable of predicting the time-dependent reliability of components subjected to transient thermomechanical loads that takes into account the change in material response with time. In this paper, the dominant delayed failure mechanism is assumed to be SCG. This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code, which has also been modified to have the ability of interfacing with commercially available FEA codes executed for transient load histories. An example involving a ceramic exhaust valve subjected to combustion cycle loads is presented to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and the CARES/Life program.

  3. Shelf Life Prediction for Canned Gudeg using Accelerated Shelf Life Testing (ASLT) Based on Arrhenius Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhayati, R.; Rahayu NH, E.; Susanto, A.; Khasanah, Y.

    2017-04-01

    Gudeg is traditional food from Yogyakarta. It is consist of jackfruit, chicken, egg and coconut milk. Gudeg generally have a short shelf life. Canning or commercial sterilization is one way to extend the shelf life of gudeg. This aims of this research is to predict the shelf life of Andrawinaloka canned gudeg with Accelerated Shelf Life Test methods, Arrhenius model. Canned gudeg stored at three different temperature, there are 37, 50 and 60°C for two months. Measuring the number of Thio Barbituric Acid (TBA), as a critical aspect, were tested every 7 days. Arrhenius model approach is done with the equation order 0 and order 1. The analysis showed that the equation of order 0 can be used as an approach to estimating the shelf life of canned gudeg. The storage of Andrawinaloka canned gudeg at 30°C is predicted untill 21 months and 24 months for 25°C.

  4. Innovative predictive maintenance concepts to improve life cycle management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinga, T.

    2014-01-01

    For naval systems with typically long service lives, high sustainment costs and strict availability requirements, an effective and efficient life cycle management process is very important. In this paper four approaches are discussed to improve that process: physics of failure based predictive maint

  5. Survey on damage mechanics models for fatigue life prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silitonga, S.; Maljaars, J.; Soetens, F.; Snijder, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    Engineering methods to predict the fatigue life of structures have been available since the beginning of the 20th century. However, a practical problem arises from complex loading conditions and a significant concern is the accuracy of the methods under variable amplitude loading. This paper provide

  6. A demand-centered, hybrid life-cycle methodology for city-scale greenhouse gas inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswami, Anu; Hillman, Tim; Janson, Bruce; Reiner, Mark; Thomas, Gregg

    2008-09-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting for individual cities is confounded by spatial scale and boundary effects that impact the allocation of regional material and energy flows. This paper develops a demand-centered, hybrid life-cycle-based methodology for conducting city-scale GHG inventories that incorporates (1) spatial allocation of surface and airline travel across colocated cities in larger metropolitan regions, and, (2) life-cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify the embodied energy of key urban materials--food, water, fuel, and concrete. The hybrid methodology enables cities to separately report the GHG impact associated with direct end-use of energy by cities (consistent with EPA and IPCC methods), as well as the impact of extra-boundary activities such as air travel and production of key urban materials (consistent with Scope 3 protocols recommended by the World Resources Institute). Application of this hybrid methodology to Denver, Colorado, yielded a more holistic GHG inventory that approaches a GHG footprint computation, with consistency of inclusions across spatial scale as well as convergence of city-scale per capita GHG emissions (approximately 25 mt CO2e/person/year) with state and national data. The method is shown to have significant policy impacts, and also demonstrates the utility of benchmarks in understanding energy use in various city sectors.

  7. Remaining useful tool life predictions in turning using Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaydeep M. Karandikar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tool wear is an important factor in determining machining productivity. In this paper, tool wear is characterized by remaining useful tool life in a turning operation and is predicted using spindle power and a random sample path method of Bayesian inference. Turning tests are performed at different speeds and feed rates using a carbide tool and MS309 steel work material. The spindle power and the tool flank wear are monitored during cutting; the root mean square of the time domain power is found to be sensitive to tool wear. Sample root mean square power growth curves are generated and the probability of each curve being the true growth curve is updated using Bayes’ rule. The updated probabilities are used to determine the remaining useful tool life. Results show good agreement between the predicted tool life and the empirically-determined true remaining life. The proposed method takes into account the uncertainty in tool life and the growth of the root mean square power at the end of tool life and is, therefore, robust and reliable.

  8. SPENVIS Implementation of End-of-Life Solar Cell Calculations Using the Displacement Damage Dose Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Robert; Summers, Geoffrey P.; Warmer. Keffreu J/; Messenger, Scott; Lorentzen, Justin R.; Morton, Thomas; Taylor, Stephen J.; Evans, Hugh; Heynderickx, Daniel; Lei, Fan

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a method for using the SPENVIS on-line computational suite to implement the displacement damage dose (D(sub d)) methodology for calculating end-of-life (EOL) solar cell performance for a specific space mission. This paper builds on our previous work that has validated the D(sub d) methodology against both measured space data [1,2] and calculations performed using the equivalent fluence methodology developed by NASA JPL [3]. For several years, the space solar community has considered general implementation of the D(sub d) method, but no computer program exists to enable this implementation. In a collaborative effort, NRL, NASA and OAI have produced the Solar Array Verification and Analysis Tool (SAVANT) under NASA funding, but this program has not progressed beyond the beta-stage [4]. The SPENVIS suite with the Multi Layered Shielding Simulation Software (MULASSIS) contains all of the necessary components to implement the Dd methodology in a format complementary to that of SAVANT [5]. NRL is currently working with ESA and BIRA to include the Dd method of solar cell EOL calculations as an integral part of SPENVIS. This paper describes how this can be accomplished.

  9. Towards a unified fatigue life prediction method for marine structures

    CERN Document Server

    Cui, Weicheng; Wang, Fang

    2014-01-01

    In order to apply the damage tolerance design philosophy to design marine structures, accurate prediction of fatigue crack growth under service conditions is required. Now, more and more people have realized that only a fatigue life prediction method based on fatigue crack propagation (FCP) theory has the potential to explain various fatigue phenomena observed. In this book, the issues leading towards the development of a unified fatigue life prediction (UFLP) method based on FCP theory are addressed. Based on the philosophy of the UFLP method, the current inconsistency between fatigue design and inspection of marine structures could be resolved. This book presents the state-of-the-art and recent advances, including those by the authors, in fatigue studies. It is designed to lead the future directions and to provide a useful tool in many practical applications. It is intended to address to engineers, naval architects, research staff, professionals and graduates engaged in fatigue prevention design and survey ...

  10. APPLICATION OF INTEGRATED INTELLIGENT METHODOLOGY TO PREDICT STABILITY AND SUPPORTING DECISION IN UNDERGROUND DRIFT

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai Xingping; Wu Yongping; Zhang Bingchuan; Cai Meifeng

    2000-01-01

    The present study shows that naturally the enormous engineering structure interaction with medium material, geometry or non-linearity hazardous simulation experiment, response analysis and computing theory have been regarded as a high-level question in the architecture, bridge, tunnel, hydraulic, etc engineering fields.Approaches an integrated intelligent methodology to predict stability and supporting decision in underground drift based on neural network modelling on coal-rock mechanical problem is proposed.By the terms of the non-linearity numerical simulation, this paper develops integrated intelligent methodology to research on the structure hazardous response strata soft-rock drifts.

  11. A patient-centered methodology that improves the accuracy of prognostic predictions in cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Kashani-Sabet

    Full Text Available Individualized approaches to prognosis are crucial to effective management of cancer patients. We developed a methodology to assign individualized 5-year disease-specific death probabilities to 1,222 patients with melanoma and to 1,225 patients with breast cancer. For each cancer, three risk subgroups were identified by stratifying patients according to initial stage, and prediction probabilities were generated based on the factors most closely related to 5-year disease-specific death. Separate subgroup probabilities were merged to form a single composite index, and its predictive efficacy was assessed by several measures, including the area (AUC under its receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve. The patient-centered methodology achieved an AUC of 0.867 in the prediction of 5-year disease-specific death, compared with 0.787 using the AJCC staging classification alone. When applied to breast cancer patients, it achieved an AUC of 0.907, compared with 0.802 using the AJCC staging classification alone. A prognostic algorithm produced from a randomly selected training subsample of 800 melanoma patients preserved 92.5% of its prognostic efficacy (as measured by AUC when the same algorithm was applied to a validation subsample containing the remaining patients. Finally, the tailored prognostic approach enhanced the identification of high-risk candidates for adjuvant therapy in melanoma. These results describe a novel patient-centered prognostic methodology with improved predictive efficacy when compared with AJCC stage alone in two distinct malignancies drawn from two separate populations.

  12. New Methodology in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) of waste water treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Henrik Fred; Wenzel, Henrik; Hauschild, Michael

    chose among different waste water treatments? Which ones are most beneficial in a holistic perspective? Here, the life cycle assessment (LCA) approach as a decision supporting tool may help because its goal is to allow quantification and direct comparison of characteristics as diverse as energy...... EU research project "NEPTUNE" focusing on nutrient recycling, micro-pollutants and ecotoxicity removal, energy production, and reuse of sludge and of its resources, this paper will present the first results of the development of a new methodology for assessing advances in wastewater treatment...

  13. STATE INSPECTION METHODOLOGY OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATORY ACTIVITY FOCUSED ON THE LIFE CYCLE PROCESSESES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuniey Quiala Armenteros

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The Cuban Environmental Regulatory Activity has on the Environmental State Inspection an instrument for control and monitoring of compliance of current legal standards regarding environmental protection and rational use of natural resources. In this research, a design methodology for effective implementation of environmental regulatory activity in Cuba directed to processes is proposed; based on the life cycle assessment and the applicable environmental management standards, including new performance indicators, which form a new tool based on scientific criterions for the Center of Environmental Inspection and Control.

  14. Measurement techniques and instruments suitable for life-prediction testing of photovoltaic arrays. Interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, G.T.; Sliemers, F.A.; Deringer, G.C.; Wood, V.E.; Wilkes, K.E.; Gaines, G.B.; Carmichael, D.C.

    1978-01-15

    The validation of a service life of 20 years for low-cost photovoltaic arrays must be accomplished through accelerated life-prediction tests. A methodology for such tests has been developed in a preceding study. The results discussed consist of the initial identification and assessment of all known measurement techniques and instruments that might be used in these life-prediction tests. Array failure modes, relevant materials property changes, and primary degradation mechanisms are discussed as a prerequisite to identifying suitable measurement techniques and instruments. Candidate techniques and instruments are identified on the basis of extensive reviews of published and unpublished information. These methods are organized in six measurement categories--chemical, electrical, optical, thermal, mechanical, and ''other physicals''. Using specified evaluation criteria, the most promising techniques and instruments for use in life-prediction tests of arrays are then selected. These recommended techniques and their characteristics are described. Recommendations are made regarding establishment of the adequacy, particularly with respect to precision, of the more fully developed techniques for this application, and regarding the experimental evaluation of promising developmental techniques. Measurement needs not satisfied by presently available techniques/instruments are also identified.

  15. Social Life Cycle Assessment as a Management Tool: Methodology for Application in Tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Merli

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available As is widely known, sustainability is an important factor in competition, increasing the added value of a company in terms of image and credibility. However, it is important that sustainability assessments are effectively addressed in a global perspective. Therefore, life cycle tools are adopted to evaluate environmental and social impacts. Among these, and of particular significance, appears the Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA, which, although in its early stage of development, seems to have extremely promising methodological features. For this reason, it seemed interesting to propose a first application to the tourism sector, which could be better than other methods, studied in terms of social sustainability data. The particular characteristics of service delivery lend themselves more to the development of data related to social sustainability than other sectors. In this paper the results of a case study carried out using social accounting and business management tools are shown.

  16. Real Gas: CFD Prediction Methodology Flow Physics for Entry Capsule Mission Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deiwert, George S.

    1997-01-01

    Mission and concept studies for space exploration are described for the purpose of identifying flow physics for entry capsule mission scenarios. These studies are a necessary precursor to the development and application of CFD prediction methodology for capsule aerothermodynamics. The scope of missions considered includes manned and unmanned cislunar missions, missions to the minor planets, and missions to the major planets and other celestial objects in the solar system.

  17. Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J

    2000-09-01

    Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction.

  18. DNA Sequencing and Predictions of the Cosmic Theory of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  19. Small punch creep test: A promising methodology for high temperature plant components life evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tettamanti, S. [CISE SpA, Milan (Italy); Crudeli, R. [ENEL SpA, Milan (Italy)

    1998-12-31

    CISE and ENEL are involved for years in a miniaturization creep methodology project to obtain similar non-destructive test with the same standard creep test reliability. The goal can be reached with `Small punch creep test` that collect all the requested characteristics; quasi nondestructive disk specimens extracted both on external or internal side of components, than accurately machined and tested on little and cheap apparatus. CISE has developed complete creep small punch procedure that involved peculiar test facility and correlation`s law comparable with the more diffused isostress methodology for residual life evaluation on ex-serviced high temperature plant components. The aim of this work is to obtain a simple and immediately applicable relationship useful for plant maintenance managing. More added work is need to validate the Small Punch methodology and for relationship calibration on most diffusion high temperature structural materials. First obtained results on a comparative work on ASTM A355 P12 ex-serviced pipe material are presented joint with a description of the Small Punch apparatus realized in CISE. (orig.) 6 refs.

  20. Chemical footprint: a methodological framework for bridging life cycle assessment and planetary boundaries for chemical pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Serenella; Goralczyk, Malgorzata

    2013-10-01

    The development and use of footprint methodologies for environmental assessment are increasingly important for both the scientific and political communities. Starting from the ecological footprint, developed at the beginning of the 1990s, several other footprints were defined, e.g., carbon and water footprint. These footprints-even though based on a different meaning of "footprint"-integrate life cycle thinking, and focus on some challenging environmental impacts including resource consumption, CO2 emission leading to climate change, and water consumption. However, they usually neglect relevant sources of impacts, as those related to the production and use of chemicals. This article presents and discusses the need and relevance of developing a methodology for assessing the chemical footprint, coupling a life cycle-based approach with methodologies developed in other contexts, such as ERA and sustainability science. Furthermore, different concepts underpin existing footprint and this could be the case also of chemical footprint. At least 2 different approaches and steps to chemical footprint could be envisaged, applicable at the micro- as well as at the meso- and macroscale. The first step (step 1) is related to the account of chemicals use and emissions along the life cycle of a product, sector, or entire economy, to assess potential impacts on ecosystems and human health. The second step (step 2) aims at assessing to which extent actual emission of chemicals harm the ecosystems above their capability to recover (carrying capacity of the system). The latter step might contribute to the wide discussion on planetary boundaries for chemical pollution: the thresholds that should not be surpassed to guarantee a sustainable use of chemicals from an environmental safety perspective. The definition of what the planetary boundaries for chemical pollution are and how the boundaries should be identified is an on-going scientific challenge for ecotoxicology and ecology. In

  1. Methodological issues in life cycle assessment of mixed-culture polyhydroxyalkanoate production utilising waste as feedstock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimersson, Sara; Morgan-Sagastume, Fernando; Peters, Gregory M; Werker, Alan; Svanström, Magdalena

    2014-06-25

    Assessing the environmental performance of emerging technologies using life cycle assessment (LCA) can be challenging due to a lack of data in relation to technologies, application areas or other life cycle considerations, or a lack of LCA methodology that address the specific concerns. Nevertheless, LCA can be a valuable tool in the environmental optimisation in the technology development phase. One emerging technology is the mixed-culture production of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs). PHA production by pure microbial cultures has been developed and assessed in several LCAs during the previous decade. Recent developments within mixed-culture PHA production call for environmental assessment to guide in technology development. Mixed-culture PHA production can use the organic content in wastewater as a feedstock; the production may then be integrated with wastewater treatment (WWT) processes. This means that mixed-culture PHA is produced as a by-product from services in the WWT. This article explores different methodological challenges for LCA of mixed-culture PHA production using organic material in wastewater as feedstock. LCAs of both pure- and mixed-culture PHA production were reviewed. Challenges, similarities and differences when assessing PHA production by mixed- or pure-cultures were identified and the resulting implications for methodological choices in LCA were evaluated and illustrated, using a case study with mixed- and pure-culture PHA model production systems, based on literature data. Environmental impacts of processes producing multiple products or services need to be allocated between the different products or services. Such situations occur both in feedstock production and when the studied system is providing multiple functions. The selection of allocation method is shown to determine the LCA results. The type of data used, for electricity in the energy system, is shown to be important for the results, which indicates, a strong regional dependency of

  2. 40 CFR Appendix A to Part 132 - Great Lakes Water Quality Initiative Methodologies for Development of Aquatic Life Criteria and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... demonstrating that the alternative values will protect the aquatic life uses of the water. Appropriate... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Great Lakes Water Quality Initiative Methodologies for Development of Aquatic Life Criteria and Values A Appendix A to Part 132 Protection of...

  3. DATA MINING METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL MODEL OF COST PREDICTION IN SHIP INTERIM PRODUCT ASSEMBLY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damir Kolich

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to accurately predict costs of the thousands of interim products that are assembled in shipyards, it is necessary to use skilled engineers to develop detailed Gantt charts for each interim product separately which takes many hours. It is helpful to develop a prediction tool to estimate the cost of interim products accurately and quickly without the need for skilled engineers. This will drive down shipyard costs and improve competitiveness. Data mining is used extensively for developing prediction models in other industries. Since ships consist of thousands of interim products, it is logical to develop a data mining methodology for a shipyard or any other manufacturing industry where interim products are produced. The methodology involves analysis of existing interim products and data collection. Pre-processing and principal component analysis is done to make the data “user-friendly” for later prediction processing and the development of both accurate and robust models. The support vector machine is demonstrated as the better model when there are a lower number of tuples. However as the number of tuples is increased to over 10000, then the artificial neural network model is recommended.

  4. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  5. Patterns, entropy, and predictability of human mobility and life.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shao-Meng Qin

    Full Text Available Cellular phones are now offering an ubiquitous means for scientists to observe life: how people act, move and respond to external influences. They can be utilized as measurement devices of individual persons and for groups of people of the social context and the related interactions. The picture of human life that emerges shows complexity, which is manifested in such data in properties of the spatiotemporal tracks of individuals. We extract from smartphone-based data for a set of persons important locations such as "home", "work" and so forth over fixed length time-slots covering the days in the data-set (see also [1], [2]. This set of typical places is heavy-tailed, a power-law distribution with an exponent close to -1.7. To analyze the regularities and stochastic features present, the days are classified for each person into regular, personal patterns. To this are superimposed fluctuations for each day. This randomness is measured by "life" entropy, computed both before and after finding the clustering so as to subtract the contribution of a number of patterns. The main issue that we then address is how predictable individuals are in their mobility. The patterns and entropy are reflected in the predictability of the mobility of the life both individually and on average. We explore the simple approaches to guess the location from the typical behavior, and of exploiting the transition probabilities with time from location or activity A to B. The patterns allow an enhanced predictability, at least up to a few hours into the future from the current location. Such fixed habits are most clearly visible in the working-day length.

  6. Predictions by the proper orthogonal decomposition reduced order methodology regarding non-linear BWR stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prill, Dennis; Class, Andreas G. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany). AREVA Nuclear Professional School (ANPS)

    2013-07-01

    Unexpected non-linear boiling water reactor (BWR) instability events in various plants, e.g. LaSalle II in 1988 and Oskarshamn II in 1990 amongst others, emphasize the major safety relevance and the existence of parameter regions with unstable behavior. A detailed description of the complete dynamical non-linear behavior is of paramount importance for BWR operation. An extension of state-of-the-art methodology towards a more general stability description, also applicable in the non-linear region, could lead to a deeper understanding of non-linear BWR stability phenomena. With the intention of a full non-linear stability analysis of the two-phase BWR system, the present paper aims at a general non-linear methodology capable to achieve reliable and numerical stable reduced order models (ROMs), representing the dynamical behavior of an original system based on a small number of transients. Model-specific options and aspects of the proposed methodology are focused on and illustrated by means of a strongly non-linear dynamical system showing complex oscillating behavior. Prediction capability of the proposed methodology is also addressed. (orig.)

  7. Predicting human miRNA target genes using a novel evolutionary methodology

    KAUST Repository

    Aigli, Korfiati

    2012-01-01

    The discovery of miRNAs had great impacts on traditional biology. Typically, miRNAs have the potential to bind to the 3\\'untraslated region (UTR) of their mRNA target genes for cleavage or translational repression. The experimental identification of their targets has many drawbacks including cost, time and low specificity and these are the reasons why many computational approaches have been developed so far. However, existing computational approaches do not include any advanced feature selection technique and they are facing problems concerning their classification performance and their interpretability. In the present paper, we propose a novel hybrid methodology which combines genetic algorithms and support vector machines in order to locate the optimal feature subset while achieving high classification performance. The proposed methodology was compared with two of the most promising existing methodologies in the problem of predicting human miRNA targets. Our approach outperforms existing methodologies in terms of classification performances while selecting a much smaller feature subset. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

  8. Developing a methodology to predict PM10 concentrations in urban areas using generalized linear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, J M; Teodoro, F; Cerdeira, R; Coelho, L M R; Kumar, Prashant; Carvalho, M G

    2016-09-01

    A methodology to predict PM10 concentrations in urban outdoor environments is developed based on the generalized linear models (GLMs). The methodology is based on the relationship developed between atmospheric concentrations of air pollutants (i.e. CO, NO2, NOx, VOCs, SO2) and meteorological variables (i.e. ambient temperature, relative humidity (RH) and wind speed) for a city (Barreiro) of Portugal. The model uses air pollution and meteorological data from the Portuguese monitoring air quality station networks. The developed GLM considers PM10 concentrations as a dependent variable, and both the gaseous pollutants and meteorological variables as explanatory independent variables. A logarithmic link function was considered with a Poisson probability distribution. Particular attention was given to cases with air temperatures both below and above 25°C. The best performance for modelled results against the measured data was achieved for the model with values of air temperature above 25°C compared with the model considering all ranges of air temperatures and with the model considering only temperature below 25°C. The model was also tested with similar data from another Portuguese city, Oporto, and results found to behave similarly. It is concluded that this model and the methodology could be adopted for other cities to predict PM10 concentrations when these data are not available by measurements from air quality monitoring stations or other acquisition means.

  9. Improved Methodology of Weather Window Prediction for Offshore Operations Based on Probabilities of Operation Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    window estimates would result in better wind farm accessibility predictions and, as a consequence, potentially reduce the cost of offshore wind energy. This paper presents an updated methodology of weather window prediction that uses physical offshore vessel and equipment responses to establish...... already contribute significantly to the cost of produced electricity and will continue to increase, due to moving further offshore, if the current techniques of predicting offshore wind farm accessibility are to stay the same. The majority of offshore operations are carried out by specialized ships...... that must be hired for the duration of the operation. Therefore, offshore wind farm accessibility and costs of offshore activities are primarily driven by the expected number of operational hours offshore and waiting times for weather windows, suitable for offshore operations. Having more reliable weather...

  10. Half-life predictions for decay modes of superheavy nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duarte, S.B.; Tavares, O.A.P. [Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas (CBPF), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Goncalves, M. [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Rodriguez, O.; Guzman, F. [Instituto Superior de Ciencias e Tecnologia Nucleares (InSTEC), La Habana (Cuba); Barbosa, T.N.; Garcia, F.; Dimarco, A. [Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Ilheus, BA (Brazil). Dept. de Ciencias Exatas e Tecnologicas

    2004-09-01

    We applied the Effective Liquid Drop Model (ELDM) to predict the alpha-decay, cluster emission and cold fission half-life-values of nuclei in the region of Superheavy Elements (SHE). The present calculations have been made in the region of the ZN-plane defined by 155 <=N <=220 and 110<=Z<=135. Shell effects are included via the Q-value of the corresponding decay case. We report the results of a systematic calculation of the half-life for the three nuclear decay modes in a region of the ZN-plane where superheavy elements are expected to be found. Results have shown that, among the decay modes investigated here, the alpha decay is the dominant one. i.e, the decay mode of smallest half-lives. Half-life predictions for alpha decay, cluster emission and cold fission for the isotopic family of the most recent SHE detected of Z=115 and for the isotopic family of the already consolidated SHE of Z=111 are presented. (author)

  11. New Methodology in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) of waste water treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Henrik Fred; Wenzel, Henrik; Hauschild, Michael

    chose among different waste water treatments? Which ones are most beneficial in a holistic perspective? Here, the life cycle assessment (LCA) approach as a decision supporting tool may help because its goal is to allow quantification and direct comparison of characteristics as diverse as energy......Reducing environmental problems related to wastewater effluents containing micro-pollutants requires resources in terms of energy, chemicals, infrastructure, installations for wastewater treatment, thus, involves advantages as well as disadvantages to the environment and society. But how does one...... EU research project "NEPTUNE" focusing on nutrient recycling, micro-pollutants and ecotoxicity removal, energy production, and reuse of sludge and of its resources, this paper will present the first results of the development of a new methodology for assessing advances in wastewater treatment...

  12. Life cycle assessment in green chemistry: overview of key parameters and methodological concerns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tufvesson, Linda M.; Tufvesson, Pär; Woodley, John

    2013-01-01

    Several articles within the area of green chemistry often promote new techniques or products as ‘green’ or ‘more environmentally benign’ than their conventional counterpart although these articles often do not quantitatively assess the environmental performance. In order to do this, life cycle...... with the purpose to reduce the time-consuming steps in LCA.In this review, several LCAs of so-called ‘green chemicals’ are analysed and key parameters and methodological concerns are identified. Further, some conclusions on the environmental performance of chemicals were drawn.For fossil-based platform chemicals...... several LCAs exists but for chemicals produced with industrial biotechnology or from renewable resources the number of LCAs is limited, with the exception of biofuels, for which a large number of studies are made. In the review, a significant difference in the environmental performance of bulk and fine...

  13. A New Mathematical Model for Flank Wear Prediction Using Functional Data Analysis Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Jozić

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new approach improving the reliability of flank wear prediction during the end milling process. In the present work, prediction of flank wear has been achieved by using cutting parameters and force signals as the sensitive carriers of information about the machining process. A series of experiments were conducted to establish the relationship between flank wear and cutting force components as well as the cutting parameters such as cutting speed, feed per tooth, and radial depth of cut. In order to be able to predict flank wear a new linear regression mathematical model has been developed by utilizing functional data analysis methodology. Regression coefficients of the model are in the form of time dependent functions that have been determined through the use of functional data analysis methodology. The mathematical model has been developed by means of applied cutting parameters and measured cutting forces components during the end milling of workpiece made of 42CrMo4 steel. The efficiency and flexibility of the developed model have been verified by comparing it with the separate experimental data set.

  14. Application of infinite model predictive control methodology to other advanced controllers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Ayyad, M; Dubay, R; Hernandez, J M

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an application of most recent developed predictive control algorithm an infinite model predictive control (IMPC) to other advanced control schemes. The IMPC strategy was derived for systems with different degrees of nonlinearity on the process gain and time constant. Also, it was shown that IMPC structure uses nonlinear open-loop modeling which is conducted while closed-loop control is executed every sampling instant. The main objective of this work is to demonstrate that the methodology of IMPC can be applied to other advanced control strategies making the methodology generic. The IMPC strategy was implemented on several advanced controllers such as PI controller using Smith-Predictor, Dahlin controller, simplified predictive control (SPC), dynamic matrix control (DMC), and shifted dynamic matrix (m-DMC). Experimental work using these approaches combined with IMPC was conducted on both single-input-single-output (SISO) and multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) systems and compared with the original forms of these advanced controllers. Computer simulations were performed on nonlinear plants demonstrating that the IMPC strategy can be readily implemented on other advanced control schemes providing improved control performance. Practical work included real-time control applications on a DC motor, plastic injection molding machine and a MIMO three zone thermal system.

  15. Predicting later life health status and mortality using state-level socioeconomic characteristics in early life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamad, Rita; Rehkopf, David H; Kuan, Kai Y; Cullen, Mark R

    2016-12-01

    Studies extending across multiple life stages promote an understanding of factors influencing health across the life span. Existing work has largely focused on individual-level rather than area-level early life determinants of health. In this study, we linked multiple data sets to examine whether early life state-level characteristics were predictive of health and mortality decades later. The sample included 143,755 U.S. employees, for whom work life claims and administrative data were linked with early life state-of-residence and mortality. We first created a "state health risk score" (SHRS) and "state mortality risk score" (SMRS) by modeling state-level contextual characteristics with health status and mortality in a randomly selected 30% of the sample (the "training set"). We then examined the association of these scores with objective health status and mortality in later life in the remaining 70% of the sample (the "test set") using multivariate linear and Cox regressions, respectively. The association between the SHRS and adult health status was β=0.14 (95%CI: 0.084, 0.20), while the hazard ratio for the SMRS was 0.96 (95%CI: 0.93, 1.00). The association between the SHRS and health was not statistically significant in older age groups at a p-level of 0.05, and there was a statistically significantly different association for health status among movers compared to stayers. This study uses a life course perspective and supports the idea of "sensitive periods" in early life that have enduring impacts on health. It adds to the literature examining populations in the U.S. where large linked data sets are infrequently available.

  16. Predicting remaining life in upper sugar-mill shafts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Rodríguez Pulecio

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available A fracture mechanics-based method is presented for determining critical crack size and residual life of upper sugar-mill shafts having semi-elliptical and circumferential cracks. Due to the multiaxial stress field, an equivalent strain energy release rate stress intensity solution is used in Paris’ law to predict crack growth. Ultrasonic inspection intervals for the shaft were established. The crack zone evaluated was located in the shoulder of the bearing nearest to the square box coupling where about 25% of service failures in these types of shaft are observed.

  17. Genetic Risk Score Predicts Late-Life Cognitive Impairment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariegold E. Wollam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A family history of Alzheimer’s disease is a significant risk factor for its onset, but the genetic risk associated with possessing multiple risk alleles is still poorly understood. Methods. In a sample of 95 older adults (Mean age = 75.1, 64.2% female, we constructed a genetic risk score based on the accumulation of risk alleles in BDNF, COMT, and APOE. A neuropsychological evaluation and consensus determined cognitive status (44 nonimpaired, 51 impaired. Logistic regression was performed to determine whether the genetic risk score predicted cognitive impairment above and beyond that associated with each gene. Results. An increased genetic risk score was associated with a nearly 4-fold increased risk of cognitive impairment (OR = 3.824, P = .013 when including the individual gene polymorphisms as covariates in the model. Discussion. A risk score combining multiple genetic influences may be more useful in predicting late-life cognitive impairment than individual polymorphisms.

  18. Cumulative early life adversity predicts longevity in wild baboons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Jenny; Archie, Elizabeth A; Altmann, Jeanne; Alberts, Susan C

    2016-04-19

    In humans and other animals, harsh circumstances in early life predict morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Multiple adverse conditions are thought to be especially toxic, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested in a prospective, longitudinal framework, especially in long-lived mammals. Here we use prospective data on 196 wild female baboons to show that cumulative early adversity predicts natural adult lifespan. Females who experience ≥3 sources of early adversity die a median of 10 years earlier than females who experience ≤1 adverse circumstances (median lifespan is 18.5 years). Females who experience the most adversity are also socially isolated in adulthood, suggesting that social processes partially explain the link between early adversity and adult survival. Our results provide powerful evidence for the developmental origins of health and disease and indicate that close ties between early adversity and survival arise even in the absence of health habit and health care-related explanations.

  19. CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2003-01-01

    This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

  20. Development of a Generic Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Tarun

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this research proposal is to further compile creep-fatigue data of steel alloys and superalloys used in military aircraft engines and/or rocket engines and to develop a statistical multivariate equation. The newly derived model will be a probabilistic fit to all the data compiled from various sources. Attempts will be made to procure the creep-fatigue data from NASA Glenn Research Center and other sources to further develop life prediction models for specific alloy groups. In a previous effort [1-3], a bank of creep-fatigue data has been compiled and tabulated under a range of known test parameters. These test parameters are called independent variables, namely; total strain range, strain rate, hold time, and temperature. The present research attempts to use these variables to develop a multivariate equation, which will be a probabilistic equation fitting a large database. The data predicted by the new model will be analyzed using the normal distribution fits, the closer the predicted lives are with the experimental lives (normal line 1 to 1 fit) the better the prediction. This will be evaluated in terms of a coefficient of correlation, R 2 as well. A multivariate equation developed earlier [3] has the following form, where S, R, T, and H have specific meaning discussed later.

  1. Life cycle analysis of mitigation methodologies for railway rolling noise and groundbourne vibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuler, Mariana Valente; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat

    2017-04-15

    Negative outcomes such as noise and vibration generated by railways have become a challenge for both industry and academia in order to guarantee that the railway system can accomplish its purposes and at the same time provide comfort for users and people living in the neighbourhood along the railway corridor. The research interest on this field has been increasing and the advancement in noise and vibration mitigation methodologies can be observed using various engineering techniques that are constantly put into test to solve such effects. In contrast, the life cycle analysis of the mitigation measures has not been thoroughly carried out. There is also a lack of detailed evaluation in the efficiency of various mechanisms for controlling rolling noise and ground-borne vibration. This research is thus focussed on the evaluation of materials used, the total cost associated with the maintenance of such the measures and the carbon footprint left for each type of mechanism. The insight into carbon footprint together with life cycle cost will benefit decision making process for the industry in the selection of optimal and suitable mechanism since the environmental impact is a growing concern around the world. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Optimum surface roughness prediction for titanium alloy by adopting response surface methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Aimin; Han, Yang; Pan, Yuhang; Xing, Hongwei; Li, Jinze

    Titanium alloy has been widely applied in industrial engineering products due to its advantages of great corrosion resistance and high specific strength. This paper investigated the processing parameters for finish turning of titanium alloy TC11. Firstly, a three-factor central composite design of experiment, considering the cutting speed, feed rate and depth of cut, are conducted in titanium alloy TC11 and the corresponding surface roughness are obtained. Then a mathematic model is constructed by the response surface methodology to fit the relationship between the process parameters and the surface roughness. The prediction accuracy was verified by the one-way ANOVA. Finally, the contour line of the surface roughness under different combination of process parameters are obtained and used for the optimum surface roughness prediction. Verification experimental results demonstrated that material removal rate (MRR) at the obtained optimum can be significantly improved without sacrificing the surface roughness.

  3. Computational methodology to predict satellite system-level effects from impacts of untrackable space debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welty, N.; Rudolph, M.; Schäfer, F.; Apeldoorn, J.; Janovsky, R.

    2013-07-01

    This paper presents a computational methodology to predict the satellite system-level effects resulting from impacts of untrackable space debris particles. This approach seeks to improve on traditional risk assessment practices by looking beyond the structural penetration of the satellite and predicting the physical damage to internal components and the associated functional impairment caused by untrackable debris impacts. The proposed method combines a debris flux model with the Schäfer-Ryan-Lambert ballistic limit equation (BLE), which accounts for the inherent shielding of components positioned behind the spacecraft structure wall. Individual debris particle impact trajectories and component shadowing effects are considered and the failure probabilities of individual satellite components as a function of mission time are calculated. These results are correlated to expected functional impairment using a Boolean logic model of the system functional architecture considering the functional dependencies and redundancies within the system.

  4. On-Line Flutter Prediction Tool for Wind Tunnel Flutter Testing using Parameter Varying Estimation Methodology Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology, Inc. (ZONA) proposes to develop an on-line flutter prediction tool using the parameter varying estimation (PVE) methodology, called the PVE Toolbox,...

  5. A grey-based group decision-making methodology for the selection of hydrogen technologiess in Life Cycle Sustainability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzardo, Alessandro; Ren, Jingzheng; Mazzi, Anna

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this research is to develop a grey-based group decision-making methodology for the selection of the best renewable energy technology (including hydrogen) using a life cycle sustainability perspective. The traditional grey relational analysis has been modified to better address...... using the proposed methodology, electrolysis of water technology by hydropower has been considered to be the best technology for hydrogen production according to the decision-making group....

  6. Computational Efficient Upscaling Methodology for Predicting Thermal Conductivity of Nuclear Waste forms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Dongsheng; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2011-09-28

    This study evaluated different upscaling methods to predict thermal conductivity in loaded nuclear waste form, a heterogeneous material system. The efficiency and accuracy of these methods were compared. Thermal conductivity in loaded nuclear waste form is an important property specific to scientific researchers, in waste form Integrated performance and safety code (IPSC). The effective thermal conductivity obtained from microstructure information and local thermal conductivity of different components is critical in predicting the life and performance of waste form during storage. How the heat generated during storage is directly related to thermal conductivity, which in turn determining the mechanical deformation behavior, corrosion resistance and aging performance. Several methods, including the Taylor model, Sachs model, self-consistent model, and statistical upscaling models were developed and implemented. Due to the absence of experimental data, prediction results from finite element method (FEM) were used as reference to determine the accuracy of different upscaling models. Micrographs from different loading of nuclear waste were used in the prediction of thermal conductivity. Prediction results demonstrated that in term of efficiency, boundary models (Taylor and Sachs model) are better than self consistent model, statistical upscaling method and FEM. Balancing the computation resource and accuracy, statistical upscaling is a computational efficient method in predicting effective thermal conductivity for nuclear waste form.

  7. Personality Predicts Health Declines Through Stressful Life Events During Late Mid-Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacovino, Juliette M; Bogdan, Ryan; Oltmanns, Thomas F

    2016-08-01

    Personality predicts the occurrence of dependent stressful life events (SLE; i.e., events reliant, at least in part, on an individual's behavior). This process, termed stress generation, contributes to psychiatric outcomes, but its role in physical health is unknown. Data were included from 998 participants (aged 55-64) in the St. Louis Personality and Aging Network (SPAN) study. Assessments occurred every 6 months for 18 months. Neuroticism, impulsivity, and agreeableness were measured with the Revised NEO Personality Inventory. Dependent (e.g., divorce) and independent (e.g., family death) SLE occurring within 6 months following baseline were assessed with the List of Threatening Experiences and confirmed by interviews. Health problems occurring within a year after SLE were the outcome. Analyses examined whether neuroticism, impulsivity, and agreeableness indirectly predict the onset of new health problems through exposure to dependent SLE. Each personality trait was associated with dependent, but not independent, SLE. Only dependent SLE predicted new health problems. Each personality trait indirectly predicted the onset of new health problems through dependent SLE. Findings suggest that personality-driven stress generation influences physical health during late mid-life. Addressing personality in interventions may reduce the occurrence of SLE, in turn decreasing health risks.

  8. Mo(ve)ment methodology – Researching conflictual meanings, double-binds and change in extreme life situations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørck, Line Lerche

    2015-01-01

    The social practice theoretical moment-movement methodology explores significant moments in depth, such as moments of frustration, anger, engagement and (be)longing. The moments are conceptualized as part of broader conflictual struggles and processes (movements), which include both continuity...... and change in conduct of life. This moment-movement methodology is developed in close collaboration with a former biker-gang member - involved as a research apprentice. Together we are developing the methodology, while researching concrete processes of change from biker gang member towards becoming...

  9. An all-in-one numerical methodology for fretting wear and fatigue life assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Llavori

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Many mechanical components such as, bearing housings, flexible couplings and spines or orthopedic devices are simultaneously subjected to a fretting wear and fatigue damage. For this reason, the combined study on a single model of wear, crack initiation and propagation is of great interest. This paper presents an all-in-one 2D cylinder on flat numerical model for life assessment on coupled fretting wear and fatigue phenomena. In the literature, two stages are usually distinguished: crack nucleation and its subsequent growth. The method combines the Archard wear model, a critical-plane implementation of the Smith-Watson- Topper (SWT multiaxial fatigue criterion coupled with the Miner-Palmgren accumulation damage rule for crack initiation prediction. Then, the Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM via eXtended Finite Element Method (X-FEM embedded into the commercial finite element code Abaqus FEA has been employed to determine the crack propagation stage. Therefore, the sum of the two stages gives a total life prediction. Finally, the numerical model was validated with experimental data reported in the literature and a good agreement was obtained.

  10. Bayesian probabilistic model for life prediction and fault mode classification of solid state luminaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep [Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States); Wei, Junchao [Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States); Sakalaukus, Peter [Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States)

    2014-06-22

    A new method has been developed for assessment of the onset of degradation in solid state luminaires to classify failure mechanisms by using metrics beyond lumen degradation that are currently used for identification of failure. Luminous Flux output, Correlated Color Temperature Data on Philips LED Lamps has been gathered under 85°C/85%RH till lamp failure. Failure modes of the test population of the lamps have been studied to understand the failure mechanisms in 85°C/85%RH accelerated test. Results indicate that the dominant failure mechanism is the discoloration of the LED encapsulant inside the lamps which is the likely cause for the luminous flux degradation and the color shift. The acquired data has been used in conjunction with Bayesian Probabilistic Models to identify luminaires with onset of degradation much prior to failure through identification of decision boundaries between lamps with accrued damage and lamps beyond the failure threshold in the feature space. In addition luminaires with different failure modes have been classified separately from healthy pristine luminaires. The α-λ plots have been used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed methodology. Results show that the predicted degradation for the lamps tracks the true degradation observed during 85°C/85%RH during accelerated life test fairly closely within the ±20% confidence bounds. Correlation of model prediction with experimental results indicates that the presented methodology allows the early identification of the onset of failure much prior to development of complete failure distributions and can be used for assessing the damage state of SSLs in fairly large deployments. It is expected that, the new prediction technique will allow the development of failure distributions without testing till L70 life for the manifestation of failure.

  11. Accelerated Life Testing and Service Lifetime Prediction for PV Technologies in the Twenty-First Century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czanderna, A. W.; Jorgensen, G. J.

    1999-07-13

    The purposes of this paper are to (1) discuss the necessity for conducting accelerated life testing (ALT) in the early stages of developing new photovoltaic (PV) technologies, (2) elucidate the crucial importance for combining ALT with real-time testing (RTT) in terrestrial environments for promising PV technologies for the 21st century, and (3) outline the essential steps for making a service lifetime prediction (SLP) for any PV technology. The specific objectives are to (a) illustrate the essential need for ALT of complete, encapsulated multilayer PV devices, (b) indicate the typical causes of degradation in PV stacks, (c) elucidate the complexity associated with quantifying the durability of the devices, (d) explain the major elements that constitute a generic SLP methodology, (e) show how the introduction of the SLP methodology in the early stages of new device development can reduce the cost of technology development, and (f) outline the procedure for combining the results of ALT and RTT, establishing degradation mechanisms, using sufficient numbers of samples, and applying the SLP methodology to produce a SLP for existing or new PV technologies.

  12. Life cycle assessment of aquaculture systems-a review of methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksson, Patrik J G; Guinée, Jeroen B; Kleijn, René; de Snoo, Geert R

    As capture fishery production has reached its limits and global demand for aquatic products is still increasing, aquaculture has become the world's fastest growing animal production sector. In attempts to evaluate the environmental consequences of this rapid expansion, life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a frequently used method. The present review of current peer-reviewed literature focusing on LCA of aquaculture systems is intended to clarify the methodological choices made, identify possible data gaps, and provide recommendations for future development within this field of research. The results of this review will also serve as a start-up activity of the EU FP7 SEAT (Sustaining Ethical Aquaculture Trade) project, which aims to perform several LCA studies on aquaculture systems in Asia over the next few years. From a full analysis of methodology in LCA, six phases were identified to differ the most amongst ten peer-reviewed articles and two PhD theses (functional unit, system boundaries, data and data quality, allocation, impact assessment methods, interpretation methods). Each phase is discussed with regards to differences amongst the studies, current LCA literature followed by recommendations where appropriate. The conclusions and recommendations section reflects on aquaculture-specific scenarios as well as on some more general issues in LCA. Aquaculture LCAs often require large system boundaries, including fisheries, agriculture, and livestock production systems from around the globe. The reviewed studies offered limited coverage of production in developing countries, low-intensity farming practices, and non-finfish species, although most farmed aquatic products originate from a wide range of farming practices in Asia. Apart from different choices of functional unit, system boundaries and impact assessment methods, the studies also differed in their choice of allocation factors and data sourcing. Interpretation of results also differed amongst the studies

  13. Comparisons of prediction models of quality of life after laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a longitudinal prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Yi Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Few studies of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC outcome have used longitudinal data for more than two years. Moreover, no studies have considered group differences in factors other than outcome such as age and nonsurgical treatment. Additionally, almost all published articles agree that the essential issue of the internal validity (reproducibility of the artificial neural network (ANN, support vector machine (SVM, Gaussian process regression (GPR and multiple linear regression (MLR models has not been adequately addressed. This study proposed to validate the use of these models for predicting quality of life (QOL after LC and to compare the predictive capability of ANNs with that of SVM, GPR and MLR. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 400 LC patients completed the SF-36 and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index at baseline and at 2 years postoperatively. The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the system models were mean square error (MSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the variables in order of importance. Compared to SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model generally had smaller MSE and MAPE values in the training data set and test data set. Most ANN models had MAPE values ranging from 4.20% to 8.60%, and most had high prediction accuracy. The global sensitivity analysis also showed that preoperative functional status was the best parameter for predicting QOL after LC. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Compared with SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model in this study was more accurate in predicting patient-reported QOL and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

  14. A Methodological Reflection on the Process of Narrative Analysis: Alienation and Identity in the Life Histories of English Language Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menard-Warwick, Julia

    2011-01-01

    This article uses data from life-history interviews with English language teachers in Chile and California to illustrate methodological processes in teacher identity research through narrative analysis. To this end, the author describes the steps she took in identifying an issue to be examined, selecting particular narratives as representative of…

  15. A Methodological Reflection on the Process of Narrative Analysis: Alienation and Identity in the Life Histories of English Language Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menard-Warwick, Julia

    2011-01-01

    This article uses data from life-history interviews with English language teachers in Chile and California to illustrate methodological processes in teacher identity research through narrative analysis. To this end, the author describes the steps she took in identifying an issue to be examined, selecting particular narratives as representative of…

  16. Causation and prediction in epidemiology: a guide to the "methodological revolution".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broadbent, Alex

    2015-12-01

    There is an ongoing "methodological revolution" in epidemiology, according to some commentators. The revolution is prompted by the development of a conceptual framework for thinking about causation here referred to as the Potential Outcomes Approach (POA), and the mathematical apparatus of directed acyclic graphs that accompanies it. But over and above the mathematics, a number of striking theses about causation are evident, for example: that a cause is something that makes a difference; that a cause is something that humans can intervene on; and that causal knowledge enables one to predict under hypothetical suppositions. This is especially remarkable in a discipline that has variously identified factors such as race and sex as determinants of health, since it has the consequence that factors of this kind cannot be treated as causes either as usefully or as meaningfully as was previously supposed. In this paper I seek to explain the significance of this movement in epidemiology, to understand its commitments, and to evaluate them.

  17. Power Prediction Model for Turning EN-31 Steel Using Response Surface Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hameedullah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Power consumption in turning EN-31 steel (a material that is most extensively used in automotive industry with tungstencarbide tool under different cutting conditions was experimentally investigated. The experimental runs were planned accordingto 24+8 added centre point factorial design of experiments, replicated thrice. The data collected was statisticallyanalyzed using Analysis of Variance technique and first order and second order power consumption prediction models weredeveloped by using response surface methodology (RSM. It is concluded that second-order model is more accurate than thefirst-order model and fit well with the experimental data. The model can be used in the automotive industries for decidingthe cutting parameters for minimum power consumption and hence maximum productivity

  18. Artificial Neural Network and Response Surface Methodology Modeling in Ionic Conductivity Predictions of Phthaloylchitosan-Based Gel Polymer Electrolyte

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Danial Azzahari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A gel polymer electrolyte system based on phthaloylchitosan was prepared. The effects of process variables, such as lithium iodide, caesium iodide, and 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium iodide were investigated using a distance-based ternary mixture experimental design. A comparative approach was made between response surface methodology (RSM and artificial neural network (ANN to predict the ionic conductivity. The predictive capabilities of the two methodologies were compared in terms of coefficient of determination R2 based on the validation data set. It was shown that the developed ANN model had better predictive outcome as compared to the RSM model.

  19. Progressive Failure And Life Prediction of Ceramic and Textile Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, David Y.; Shi, Yucheng; Katikala, Madhu; Johnston, William M., Jr.; Card, Michael F.

    1998-01-01

    An engineering approach to predict the fatigue life and progressive failure of multilayered composite and textile laminates is presented. Analytical models which account for matrix cracking, statistical fiber failures and nonlinear stress-strain behavior have been developed for both composites and textiles. The analysis method is based on a combined micromechanics, fracture mechanics and failure statistics analysis. Experimentally derived empirical coefficients are used to account for the interface of fiber and matrix, fiber strength, and fiber-matrix stiffness reductions. Similar approaches were applied to textiles using Repeating Unit Cells. In composite fatigue analysis, Walker's equation is applied for matrix fatigue cracking and Heywood's formulation is used for fiber strength fatigue degradation. The analysis has been compared with experiment with good agreement. Comparisons were made with Graphite-Epoxy, C/SiC and Nicalon/CAS composite materials. For textile materials, comparisons were made with triaxial braided and plain weave materials under biaxial or uniaxial tension. Fatigue predictions were compared with test data obtained from plain weave C/SiC materials tested at AS&M. Computer codes were developed to perform the analysis. Composite Progressive Failure Analysis for Laminates is contained in the code CPFail. Micromechanics Analysis for Textile Composites is contained in the code MicroTex. Both codes were adapted to run as subroutines for the finite element code ABAQUS and CPFail-ABAQUS and MicroTex-ABAQUS. Graphic user interface (GUI) was developed to connect CPFail and MicroTex with ABAQUS.

  20. On the development of a strength prediction methodology for fibre metal laminates in pin bearing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krimbalis, Peter Panagiotis

    The development of Fibre Metal Laminates (FMLs) for application into aerospace structures represents a paradigm shift in airframe and material technology. By consolidating both monolithic metallic alloys and fibre reinforced composite layers, a new material structure is born exhibiting desired qualities emerging from its heterogeneous constituency. When mechanically fastened via pins, bolts and rivets, these laminated materials develop damage and ultimately fail via mechanisms that were not entirely understood and different than either their metallic or composite constituents. The development of a predictive methodology capable of characterizing how FMLs fastened with pins behave and fail would drastically reduce the amount of experimentation necessary for material qualification and be an invaluable design tool. The body of this thesis discusses the extension of the characteristic dimension approach to FMLs and the subsequent development of a new failure mechanism as part of a progressive damage finite element (FE) modeling methodology with yielding, delamination and buckling representing the central tenets of the new mechanism. This yielding through delamination buckling (YDB) mechanism and progressive FE model were investigated through multiple experimental studies. The experimental investigations required the development of a protocol with emphasis on measuring deformation on a local scheme in addition to a global one. With the extended protocol employed, complete characterization of the material response was possible and a new definition for yield in a pin bearing configuration was developed and subsequently extended to a tensile testing configuration. The performance of this yield definition was compared directly to existing definitions and was shown to be effective in both quasi-isotropic and orthotropic materials. The results of the experiments and FE simulations demonstrated that yielding (according to the new definition), buckling and delamination

  1. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  2. Fundamental understanding and life prediction of stress corrosion cracking in BWRs and energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andresen, P.L.; Ford, F.P. [General Electric, Schenectady, NY (United States). Corporate Research and Development Center

    1998-03-01

    The objective of this paper is to present an approach for design and lifetime evaluation of environmental cracking based on experimental and fundamental modeling of the underlying processes operative in crack advance. In detailed this approach and its development and quantification for energy (hot water) systems, the requirements for a life prediction methodology will be highlighted and the shortcomings of the existing design and lifetime evaluation codes reviewed. Examples are identified of its use in a variety of cracking systems, such as stainless steels, low alloy steels, nickel base alloys, and irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking in boiling water reactor (BWR) water, as well as preliminary use for low alloy steel and Alloy 600 in pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and turbine steels in steam turbines. Identification of the common aspects with environmental cracking in other hot water systems provides a secure basis for its extension to related energy systems. 166 refs., 49 figs.

  3. Deterministic and Probabilistic Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancement to CARES/Creep: Multiaxial Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Structures Using Continuum Damage Mechanics and the Finite Element Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1998-01-01

    High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep ripture criterion However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of stress, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and

  4. Regression methodology in groundwater composition estimation with composition predictions for Romuvaara borehole KR10

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luukkonen, A.; Korkealaakso, J.; Pitkaenen, P. [VTT Communities and Infrastructure, Espoo (Finland)

    1997-11-01

    Teollisuuden Voima Oy selected five investigation areas for preliminary site studies (1987Ae1992). The more detailed site investigation project, launched at the beginning of 1993 and presently supervised by Posiva Oy, is concentrated to three investigation areas. Romuvaara at Kuhmo is one of the present target areas, and the geochemical, structural and hydrological data used in this study are extracted from there. The aim of the study is to develop suitable methods for groundwater composition estimation based on a group of known hydrogeological variables. The input variables used are related to the host type of groundwater, hydrological conditions around the host location, mixing potentials between different types of groundwater, and minerals equilibrated with the groundwater. The output variables are electrical conductivity, Ca, Mg, Mn, Na, K, Fe, Cl, S, HS, SO{sub 4}, alkalinity, {sup 3}H, {sup 14}C, {sup 13}C, Al, Sr, F, Br and I concentrations, and pH of the groundwater. The methodology is to associate the known hydrogeological conditions (i.e. input variables), with the known water compositions (output variables), and to evaluate mathematical relations between these groups. Output estimations are done with two separate procedures: partial least squares regressions on the principal components of input variables, and by training neural networks with input-output pairs. Coefficients of linear equations and trained networks are optional methods for actual predictions. The quality of output predictions are monitored with confidence limit estimations, evaluated from input variable covariances and output variances, and with charge balance calculations. Groundwater compositions in Romuvaara borehole KR10 are predicted at 10 metre intervals with both prediction methods. 46 refs.

  5. Attachment style predicts affect, cognitive appraisals, and social functioning in daily life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheinbaum, Tamara; Kwapil, Thomas R; Ballespí, Sergi; Mitjavila, Mercè; Chun, Charlotte A; Silvia, Paul J; Barrantes-Vidal, Neus

    2015-01-01

    The way in which attachment styles are expressed in the moment as individuals navigate their real-life settings has remained an area largely untapped by attachment research. The present study examined how adult attachment styles are expressed in daily life using experience sampling methodology (ESM) in a sample of 206 Spanish young adults. Participants were administered the Attachment Style Interview (ASI) and received personal digital assistants that signaled them randomly eight times per day for 1 week to complete questionnaires about their current experiences and social context. As hypothesized, participants' momentary affective states, cognitive appraisals, and social functioning varied in meaningful ways as a function of their attachment style. Individuals with an anxious attachment, as compared with securely attached individuals, endorsed experiences that were congruent with hyperactivating tendencies, such as higher negative affect, stress, and perceived social rejection. By contrast, individuals with an avoidant attachment, relative to individuals with a secure attachment, endorsed experiences that were consistent with deactivating tendencies, such as decreased positive states and a decreased desire to be with others when alone. Furthermore, the expression of attachment styles in social contexts was shown to be dependent upon the subjective appraisal of the closeness of social contacts, and not merely upon the presence of social interactions. The findings support the ecological validity of the ASI and the person-by-situation character of attachment theory. Moreover, they highlight the utility of ESM for investigating how the predictions derived from attachment theory play out in the natural flow of real life.

  6. Predicting the onset and persistence of episodes of depression in primary health care. The predictD-Spain study: Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brangier-Wainberg Paulette

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The effects of putative risk factors on the onset and/or persistence of depression remain unclear. We aim to develop comprehensive models to predict the onset and persistence of episodes of depression in primary care. Here we explain the general methodology of the predictD-Spain study and evaluate the reliability of the questionnaires used. Methods This is a prospective cohort study. A systematic random sample of general practice attendees aged 18 to 75 has been recruited in seven Spanish provinces. Depression is being measured with the CIDI at baseline, and at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. A set of individual, environmental, genetic, professional and organizational risk factors are to be assessed at each follow-up point. In a separate reliability study, a proportional random sample of 401 participants completed the test-retest (251 researcher-administered and 150 self-administered between October 2005 and February 2006. We have also checked 118,398 items for data entry from a random sample of 480 patients stratified by province. Results All items and questionnaires had good test-retest reliability for both methods of administration, except for the use of recreational drugs over the previous six months. Cronbach's alphas were good and their factorial analyses coherent for the three scales evaluated (social support from family and friends, dissatisfaction with paid work, and dissatisfaction with unpaid work. There were 191 (0.16% data entry errors. Conclusion The items and questionnaires were reliable and data quality control was excellent. When we eventually obtain our risk index for the onset and persistence of depression, we will be able to determine the individual risk of each patient evaluated in primary health care.

  7. Predicting losing and gaining river reaches in lowland New Zealand based on a statistical methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jing; Zammit, Christian; Dudley, Bruce

    2017-04-01

    The phenomenon of losing and gaining in rivers normally takes place in lowland where often there are various, sometimes conflicting uses for water resources, e.g., agriculture, industry, recreation, and maintenance of ecosystem function. To better support water allocation decisions, it is crucial to understand the location and seasonal dynamics of these losses and gains. We present a statistical methodology to predict losing and gaining river reaches in New Zealand based on 1) information surveys with surface water and groundwater experts from regional government, 2) A collection of river/watershed characteristics, including climate, soil and hydrogeologic information, and 3) the random forests technique. The surveys on losing and gaining reaches were conducted face-to-face at 16 New Zealand regional government authorities, and climate, soil, river geometry, and hydrogeologic data from various sources were collected and compiled to represent river/watershed characteristics. The random forests technique was used to build up the statistical relationship between river reach status (gain and loss) and river/watershed characteristics, and then to predict for river reaches at Strahler order one without prior losing and gaining information. Results show that the model has a classification error of around 10% for "gain" and "loss". The results will assist further research, and water allocation decisions in lowland New Zealand.

  8. Hybrid intelligent methodology to design translation invariant morphological operators for Brazilian stock market prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Ricardo de A

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents a hybrid intelligent methodology to design increasing translation invariant morphological operators applied to Brazilian stock market prediction (overcoming the random walk dilemma). The proposed Translation Invariant Morphological Robust Automatic phase-Adjustment (TIMRAA) method consists of a hybrid intelligent model composed of a Modular Morphological Neural Network (MMNN) with a Quantum-Inspired Evolutionary Algorithm (QIEA), which searches for the best time lags to reconstruct the phase space of the time series generator phenomenon and determines the initial (sub-optimal) parameters of the MMNN. Each individual of the QIEA population is further trained by the Back Propagation (BP) algorithm to improve the MMNN parameters supplied by the QIEA. Also, for each prediction model generated, it uses a behavioral statistical test and a phase fix procedure to adjust time phase distortions observed in stock market time series. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed method through four Brazilian stock market time series, and the achieved results are discussed and compared to results found with random walk models and the previously introduced Time-delay Added Evolutionary Forecasting (TAEF) and Morphological-Rank-Linear Time-lag Added Evolutionary Forecasting (MRLTAEF) methods.

  9. Ways that Social Change Predicts Personal Quality of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Leung, Kwok

    2010-01-01

    A notable way that social change affects personal quality of life would rely on the person's experience with social change. This experience may influence societal quality of life and quality of work life, which may in turn affect personal quality of life. Additionally, the experience of social change is possibly less detrimental to personal…

  10. Methodological studies of orofacial aesthetics, orofacial function and oral health-related quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsson, Pernilla

    2010-01-01

    Among researchers and in the general population, awareness of the impact of health and health care on the quality of human life is increasing. An important medical and dental research area that addresses this issue is health measurement scales and psychometrics. Such instruments have numerous uses, such as to screen psychosocial aspects in individual patient care, assess perceived health or disease in population surveys, measure outcome in clinical trials, and gather data for cost-utility analyses. Assessing and improving oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL), orofacial function, and orofacial aesthetics are three major goals in dental care. The overall aim of this thesis was to describe how three assessment tools were developed-using current scientific methodology-to measure these concepts in the Swedish culture. This thesis comprises five studies. In article I, recommended guidelines were used to translate the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP), an OHRQoL instrument, into Swedish. A group of 145 consecutive patients comprising five diagnostic groups participated in reliability and validity evaluations of OHIP-S, the Swedish OHIP version. Data supported excellent reliability and acceptable validity. In article II, the Jaw Functional Limitation Scale (JFLS) was developed, and reliability and validity were assessed in 132 consecutive patients from five diagnostic groups. An expert panel identified 52 functional limitation items. Rasch methodology reduced the number of items to 20 and assessed model fit. Three constructs were identified-mastication, vertical jaw mobility, and emotional and verbal expression-and good reliability and validity were found. The JFLS-20 is an organ-specific instrument for assessing functional status of the masticatory system while the shorter JFLS-8 assesses global functional limitation. Article III describes development of the Orofacial Aesthetic Scale (OAS), in particular its conceptual framework, measurement model, and method of

  11. Toward a methodology for conducting social impact assessments using quality of social life indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, M.E.; Merwin, D.J.

    1976-07-01

    The methodology proposed essentially argues that mankind is inexorably dependent on the natural environment, and that collective social life is always constrained and shaped by the basic ecological factors of natural resources, population characteristics, material and social technology, and the economic order which satisfies peoples' sustenance needs. To this ecological perspective two further assumptions are added: (1) collective social activities are generally aimed at the attainment of goals that reflect the values and interests of the participants, so that social impact assessment must reflect both the ecological conditions prevailing in a community and the values, interests, and goals of the community members; and (2) a community can be viewed as a problem-solving social system, in which (a) challenges such as new environmental or technological conditions initially disrupt existing social processes and patterns of social ordering, which (b) creates temporary problem conditions and activities, which in turn (c) generate collective responses to cope with these problems, which finally (d) act back (as either positive or negative feedback) on the initial disruptive conditions. The inputs to a general social impact model are (a) such disruptive innovations or alterations as growing resource scarcities (e.g., oil or water depletion), governmental policy decisions (e.g., emphasis on solar energy, limiting economic growth), or technological development projects (e.g., nuclear energy centers, water reservoirs); and (b) values and interests of the people in the affected area. Whatever the precise nature of the outside disruption, it can be expected to have direct and relatively immediate impacts on the basic ecological factors of the local population and economy. (MCW)

  12. Artificial neural network and response surface methodology modeling in mass transfer parameters predictions during osmotic dehydration of Carica papaya L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Prakash Maran

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a comparative approach was made between artificial neural network (ANN and response surface methodology (RSM to predict the mass transfer parameters of osmotic dehydration of papaya. The effects of process variables such as temperature, osmotic solution concentration and agitation speed on water loss, weight reduction, and solid gain during osmotic dehydration were investigated using a three-level three-factor Box-Behnken experimental design. Same design was utilized to train a feed-forward multilayered perceptron (MLP ANN with back-propagation algorithm. The predictive capabilities of the two methodologies were compared in terms of root mean square error (RMSE, mean absolute error (MAE, standard error of prediction (SEP, model predictive error (MPE, chi square statistic (χ2, and coefficient of determination (R2 based on the validation data set. The results showed that properly trained ANN model is found to be more accurate in prediction as compared to RSM model.

  13. Multi-Axial Damage Index and Accumulation Model for Predicting Fatigue Life of CMC Materials Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The fatigue life of CMCs must be well characterized for the safe and reliable use of these materials as integrated TPS components. Existing fatigue life prediction...

  14. Deconstructing environmental predictability: seasonality, environmental colour and the biogeography of marine life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Dustin J; Burgess, Scott C

    2015-02-01

    Environmental predictability is predicted to shape the evolution of life histories. Two key types of environmental predictability, seasonality and environmental colour, may influence life-history evolution independently but formal considerations of both and how they relate to life history are exceedingly rare. Here, in a global biogeographical analysis of over 800 marine invertebrates, we explore the relationships between both forms of environmental predictability and three fundamental life-history traits: location of larval development (aplanktonic vs. planktonic), larval developmental mode (feeding vs. non-feeding) and offspring size. We found that both dispersal potential and offspring size related to environmental predictability, but the relationships depended on both the environmental factor as well as the type of predictability. Environments that were more seasonal in food availability had a higher prevalence of species with a planktonic larval stage. Future studies should consider both types of environmental predictability as each can strongly affect life-history evolution.

  15. Creep lifing methodologies applied to a single crystal superalloy by use of small scale test techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffs, S.P., E-mail: s.p.jeffs@swansea.ac.uk [Institute of Structural Materials, Swansea University, Singleton Park SA2 8PP (United Kingdom); Lancaster, R.J. [Institute of Structural Materials, Swansea University, Singleton Park SA2 8PP (United Kingdom); Garcia, T.E. [IUTA (University Institute of Industrial Technology of Asturias), University of Oviedo, Edificio Departamental Oeste 7.1.17, Campus Universitario, 33203 Gijón (Spain)

    2015-06-11

    In recent years, advances in creep data interpretation have been achieved either by modified Monkman–Grant relationships or through the more contemporary Wilshire equations, which offer the opportunity of predicting long term behaviour extrapolated from short term results. Long term lifing techniques prove extremely useful in creep dominated applications, such as in the power generation industry and in particular nuclear where large static loads are applied, equally a reduction in lead time for new alloy implementation within the industry is critical. The latter requirement brings about the utilisation of the small punch (SP) creep test, a widely recognised approach for obtaining useful mechanical property information from limited material volumes, as is typically the case with novel alloy development and for any in-situ mechanical testing that may be required. The ability to correlate SP creep results with uniaxial data is vital when considering the benefits of the technique. As such an equation has been developed, known as the k{sub SP} method, which has been proven to be an effective tool across several material systems. The current work now explores the application of the aforementioned empirical approaches to correlate small punch creep data obtained on a single crystal superalloy over a range of elevated temperatures. Finite element modelling through ABAQUS software based on the uniaxial creep data has also been implemented to characterise the SP deformation and help corroborate the experimental results.

  16. Predicting water quality criteria for protecting aquatic life from physicochemical properties of metals or metalloids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fengchang; Mu, Yunsong; Chang, Hong; Zhao, Xiaoli; Giesy, John P; Wu, K Benjamin

    2013-01-02

    Metals are widely distributed pollutants in water and can have detrimental effects on some aquatic life and humans. Over the past few decades, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) has published a series of criteria guidelines, which contain specific criteria maximum concentrations (CMCs) for 10 metals. However, CMCs for other metals are still lacking because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing. Herein, a quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) method was used to develop a set of predictive relationships, based on physical and chemical characteristics of metals, and predict acute toxicities of each species for five phyla and eight families of organisms for 25 metals or metalloids. In addition, species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) were developed as independent methods for determining predictive CMCs. The quantitative ion character-activity relationships (QICAR) analysis showed that the softness index (σp), maximum complex stability constants (log -β(n)), electrochemical potential (ΔE(0)), and covalent index (X(m)(2)r) were the minimum set of structure parameters required to predict toxicity of metals to eight families of representative organisms. Predicted CMCs for 10 metals are in reasonable agreement with those recommended previously by U.S. EPA within a difference of 1.5 orders of magnitude. CMCs were significantly related to σp (r(2) = 0.76, P = 7.02 × 10(-9)) and log -β(n) (r(2) = 0.73, P = 3.88 × 10(-8)). The novel QICAR-SSD model reported here is a rapid, cost-effective, and reasonably accurate method, which can provide a beneficial supplement to existing methodologies for developing preliminarily screen level toxicities or criteria for metals, for which little or no relevant information on the toxicity to particular classes of aquatic organisms exists.

  17. A probabilistic methodology for radar cross section prediction in conceptual aircraft design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hines, Nathan Robert

    System effectiveness has increasingly become the prime metric for the evaluation of military aircraft. As such, it is the decision maker's/designer's goal to maximize system effectiveness. Industry and government research documents indicate that all future military aircraft will incorporate signature reduction as an attempt to improve system effectiveness and reduce the cost of attrition. Today's operating environments demand low observable aircraft which are able to reliably take out valuable, time critical targets. Thus it is desirable to be able to design vehicles that are balanced for increased effectiveness. Previous studies have shown that shaping of the vehicle is one of the most important contributors to radar cross section, a measure of radar signature, and must be considered from the very beginning of the design process. Radar cross section estimation should be incorporated into conceptual design to develop more capable systems. This research strives to meet these needs by developing a conceptual design tool that predicts radar cross section for parametric geometries. This tool predicts the absolute radar cross section of the vehicle as well as the impact of geometry changes, allowing for the simultaneous tradeoff of the aerodynamic, performance, and cost characteristics of the vehicle with the radar cross section. Furthermore, this tool can be linked to a campaign theater analysis code to demonstrate the changes in system and system of system effectiveness due to changes in aircraft geometry. A general methodology was developed and implemented and sample computer codes applied to prototype the proposed process. Studies utilizing this radar cross section tool were subsequently performed to demonstrate the capabilities of this method and show the impact that various inputs have on the outputs of these models. The F/A-18 aircraft configuration was chosen as a case study vehicle to perform a design space exercise and to investigate the relative impact of

  18. Review of the Remaining Useful Life Prognostics of Vehicle Lithium-Ion Batteries Using Data-Driven Methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lifeng Wu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-ion batteries are the primary power source in electric vehicles, and the prognosis of their remaining useful life is vital for ensuring the safety, stability, and long lifetime of electric vehicles. Accurately establishing a mechanism model of a vehicle lithium-ion battery involves a complex electrochemical process. Remaining useful life (RUL prognostics based on data-driven methods has become a focus of research. Current research on data-driven methodologies is summarized in this paper. By analyzing the problems of vehicle lithium-ion batteries in practical applications, the problems that need to be solved in the future are identified.

  19. Screw Remaining Life Prediction Based on Quantum Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaochen Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To predict the remaining life of ball screw, a screw remaining life prediction method based on quantum genetic algorithm (QGA and support vector machine (SVM is proposed. A screw accelerated test bench is introduced. Accelerometers are installed to monitor the performance degradation of ball screw. Combined with wavelet packet decomposition and isometric mapping (Isomap, the sensitive feature vectors are obtained and stored in database. Meanwhile, the sensitive feature vectors are randomly chosen from the database and constitute training samples and testing samples. Then the optimal kernel function parameter and penalty factor of SVM are searched with the method of QGA. Finally, the training samples are used to train optimized SVM while testing samples are adopted to test the prediction accuracy of the trained SVM so the screw remaining life prediction model can be got. The experiment results show that the screw remaining life prediction model could effectively predict screw remaining life.

  20. Understanding the multiple realities of everyday life: basic assumptions in focus-group methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanoff, Synneve Dahlin; Hultberg, John

    2006-06-01

    In recent years, there has been a notable growth in the use of focus groups within occupational therapy. It is important to understand what kind of knowledge focus-group methodology is meant to acquire. The purpose of this article is to create an understanding of the basic assumptions within focus-group methodology from a theory of science perspective in order to elucidate and encourage reflection on the paradigm. This will be done based on a study of contemporary literature. To further the knowledge of basic assumptions the article will focus on the following themes: the focus-group research arena, the foundation and its core components; subjects, the role of the researcher and the participants; activities, the specific tasks and procedures. Focus-group methodology can be regarded as a specific research method within qualitative methodology with its own form of methodological criteria, as well as its own research procedures. Participants construct a framework to make sense of their experiences, and in interaction with others these experiences will be modified, leading to the construction of new knowledge. The role of the group leader is to facilitate a fruitful environment for the meaning to emerge and to ensure that the understanding of the meaning emerges independently of the interpreter. Focus-group methodology thus shares, in the authors' view, some basic assumptions with social constructivism.

  1. Quality and shelf-life prediction for retail fresh hake (Merluccius merluccius).

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Míriam R; Vilas, Carlos; Herrera, Juan R; Bernárdez, Marta; Balsa-Canto, Eva; Alonso, Antonio A

    2015-09-02

    Fish quality has a direct impact on market price and its accurate assessment and prediction are of main importance to set prices, increase competitiveness, resolve conflicts of interest and prevent food wastage due to conservative product shelf-life estimations. In this work we present a general methodology to derive predictive models of fish freshness under different storage conditions. The approach makes use of the theory of optimal experimental design, to maximize data information and in this way reduce the number of experiments. The resulting growth model for specific spoilage microorganisms in hake (Merluccius merluccius) is sufficiently informative to estimate quality sensory indexes under time-varying temperature profiles. In addition it incorporates quantitative information of the uncertainty induced by fish variability. The model has been employed to test the effect of factors such as fishing gear or evisceration, on fish spoilage and therefore fish quality. Results show no significant differences in terms of microbial growth between hake fished by long-line or bottom-set nets, within the implicit uncertainty of the model. Similar conclusions can be drawn for gutted and un-gutted hake along the experiment horizon. In addition, whenever there is the possibility to carry out the necessary experiments, this approach is sufficiently general to be used in other fish species and under different stress variables.

  2. Probabilistic Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Composite Aircraft Components Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Assessment Network (PFDAN) toolkit for Abaqus will be developed for probabilistic life management of a laminated composite structure...

  3. Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Disc Considering Model Parameter Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Liping; Yu, Le; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Ding, Liangliang; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2016-06-01

    Aiming to improve the predictive ability of Walker model for fatigue life prediction and taking the turbine disc alloy GH4133 as the application example, this paper investigates a new approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction when considering parameter uncertainty inherent in the life prediction model. Firstly, experimental data are used to update the model parameters using Bayes' theorem, so as to obtain the posterior probability distribution functions of two parameters of the Walker model, as well to achieve the probabilistic life prediction model for turbine disc. During the updating process, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is used to generate samples of the given distribution and estimating the parameters distinctly. After that, the turbine disc life is predicted using the probabilistic Walker model based on Monte Carlo simulation technique. The experimental results indicate that: (1) after using the small sample test data obtained from turbine disc, parameter uncertainty of the Walker model can be quantified and the corresponding probabilistic model for fatigue life prediction can be established using Bayes' theorem; (2) there exists obvious dispersion of life data for turbine disc when predicting fatigue life in practical engineering application.

  4. The Prediction of Fatigue Life Based on Four Point Bending Test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramesti, F.P.; Molenaar, A.A.A.; Van de Ven, M.F.C.

    2013-01-01

    To be able to devise optimum strategies for maintenance and rehabilitation, it is essential to formulate an accurate prediction of pavement life and its maintenance needs. One of the pavement life prediction methods is based on the pavement's capability to sustain fatigue. If it were possible to hav

  5. DESIGN PROCEDURE OF SAFE LIFE AND PREDICTION OF DURABILITY OF MACHINES DETAILS AT FRICTION LOADING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    В. Варюхно

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The aspects of prediction of durability of machines details are examined by friction loading. Onthe basis of used forecasts of change of object conditions the design procedure of safe life ofaviation engineering products, which works in conditions of friction loading. On the basis ofanalysis of the received results the theoretical model of prediction of the wear processes duringservice life is offered

  6. Does Life Satisfaction Predict Victimization Experiences in Adolescence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Kellie; Huebner, E. Scott; Valois, Robert F.

    2008-01-01

    Longitudinal relationships between adolescents' life satisfaction and peer victimization and prosocial experiences were assessed. A total of 417 students in Grades 6-8 completed the Multidimensional Students' Life Satisfaction Scale (MSLSS: Huebner, 1994) and the Children's Social Experience Questionnaire - Self Report (SEQ-SR: Crick & Grotpeter,…

  7. Development and application of a statistical methodology to evaluate the predictive accuracy of building energy baseline models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Granderson, Jessica [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Technologies Area Div.; Price, Phillip N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Technologies Area Div.

    2014-03-01

    This paper documents the development and application of a general statistical methodology to assess the accuracy of baseline energy models, focusing on its application to Measurement and Verification (M&V) of whole-­building energy savings. The methodology complements the principles addressed in resources such as ASHRAE Guideline 14 and the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol. It requires fitting a baseline model to data from a ``training period’’ and using the model to predict total electricity consumption during a subsequent ``prediction period.’’ We illustrate the methodology by evaluating five baseline models using data from 29 buildings. The training period and prediction period were varied, and model predictions of daily, weekly, and monthly energy consumption were compared to meter data to determine model accuracy. Several metrics were used to characterize the accuracy of the predictions, and in some cases the best-­performing model as judged by one metric was not the best performer when judged by another metric.

  8. Landslide hazard assessment : LIFE+IMAGINE project methodology and Liguria region use case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spizzichino, Daniele; Campo, Valentina; Congi, Maria Pia; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Leoni, Gabriele; Trigila, Alessandro

    2015-04-01

    Scope of the work is to present a methodology developed for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement a web services-based infrastructure addressed to environmental analysis, that integrates, in its own architecture, specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services has been customized to provide functionalities for supporting environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure has been applied to landslide risk scenarios, developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. The landslide pilot and related scenario are focused at providing a simplified Landslide Risk Assessment (LRA) through: 1) a landslide inventory derived from available historical and recent databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements 5) development of a use case; 6) definition of guidelines, best practices and production of thematic maps. The LRA has been implemented in Liguria region, Italy, in two different catchment areas located in the Cinque Terre National Park, characterized by a high landslide susceptibility and low resilience. The landslide risk impact analysis has been calibrated taking into account the socio-economic damage caused by landslides triggered by the October 2011 meteorological event. During this event, over 600 landslides were triggered in the selected pilot area. Most of landslides affected the diffuse system of anthropogenic terraces and caused the direct

  9. Attachment Style Predicts Affect, Cognitive Appraisals, and Social Functioning in Daily Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara eSheinbaum

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The way in which attachment styles are expressed in the moment as individuals navigate their real-life settings has remained an area largely untapped by attachment research. The present study examined how adult attachment styles are expressed in daily life using Experience Sampling Methodology (ESM in a sample of 206 Spanish young adults. Participants were administered the Attachment Style Interview and received personal digital assistants that signaled them randomly eight times per day for one week to complete questionnaires about their current experiences and social context. As hypothesized, participants’ momentary affective states, cognitive appraisals, and social functioning varied in meaningful ways as a function of their attachment style. Individuals with an anxious attachment, as compared with securely attached individuals, endorsed experiences that were congruent with hyperactivating tendencies, such as higher negative affect, stress, and perceived social rejection. By contrast, individuals with an avoidant attachment, relative to individuals with a secure attachment, endorsed experiences that were consistent with deactivating tendencies, such as decreased positive states and a decreased desire to be with others when alone. Furthermore, the expression of attachment styles in social contexts was shown to be dependent upon the subjective appraisal of the closeness of social contacts, and not merely upon the presence of social interactions. The findings support the ecological validity of the Attachment Style Interview and the person-by-situation character of attachment theory. Moreover, they highlight the utility of ESM for investigating how the predictions derived from attachment theory play out in the natural flow of real life.

  10. Quality Adjusted Life Years and Trade Off Exercises : exploring methodology and validity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Marieke

    2006-01-01

    Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) are a popular outcome measure in cost-effectiveness analyses. QALYs are computed by multiplying follow-up or survival by a scaling factor reflecting health related quality of life, and as such capture quantity and quality gains simultaneously. Issues with regard t

  11. Conceptual issues of research methodology for the behavioural, life and social sciences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mellenbergh, G.J.; Adèr, H.J.; Baird, D.; Berger, M.P.F.; Cornell, J.E.; Hagenaars, J.A.P.; Molenaar, P.C.M.

    2003-01-01

    Research methodology (RM) must be clearly separated from substantive fields, such as medicine, psychology, education, sociology and economics, and, on the other side, from the philosophy of science and statistics. RM starts from substantive research problems and uses statistical knowledge, but it go

  12. Meteoritic Input of Amino Acids and Nucleobases: Methodology and Implications for the Origins of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Aaron S.; Stern, Jennifer C.; Elsila, Jamie E.; Glavin, Daniel P.; Dworkin, Jason P.

    2012-01-01

    The discoveries of amino acids of extraterrestrial origin in many meteorites over the last 40 years have revolutionized the Astrobiology field. A variety of non-terrestrial amino acids similar to those found in life on Earth have been detected in meteorites. A few amino acids have even been found with chiral excesses, suggesting that meteorites could have contributed to the origin of homochirality in life on Earth. In addition to amino acids, which have been productively studied for years, sugar-like molecules, activated phosphates, and nucleobases have also been determined to be indigenous to numerous meteorites. Because these molecules are essential for life as we know it, and meteorites have been delivering them to the Earth since accretion, it is plausible that the origin(s) of life on Earth were aided by extraterrestrially-synthesized molecules. Understanding the origins of life on Earth guides our search for life elsewhere, helping to answer the question of whether biology is unique to Earth. This tutorial review focuses on meteoritic amino acids and nucleobases, exploring modern analytical methods and possible formation mechanisms. We will also discuss the unique window that meteorites provide into the chemistry that preceded life on Earth, a chemical record we do not have access to on Earth due to geologic recycling of rocks and the pervasiveness of biology across the planet. Finally, we will address the future of meteorite research, including asteroid sample return mIssIons.

  13. Prediction of Fatigue Life of Gear Subjected to Varying Loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hanumanna

    1998-07-01

    Full Text Available Structural members and components of a vehicle during service are subjected to varying loads which are random in nature. For structural members subjected to loads of constant amplitude, it is possible to describe the load with explicit mathematical relationship, and thereby, the life span can be estimated. Whereas, for structural members subjected to varying loads with time, there is no satisfactory method to estimate their life span. This paper describes a method for the estimation of life span of a gear in the gear box of a fighting vehicle subjected to fluctuating loads. For this purpose, it is assumed that the load spectrum corresponds to Gaussian (normal distribution, and the life has been worked out by applying linear cumulative damage theory.

  14. Global life satisfaction predicts ambulatory affect, stress, and cortisol in daily life in working adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Joshua M; Zawadzki, Matthew J; Juth, Vanessa; Sciamanna, Christopher N

    2017-04-01

    Global life satisfaction has been linked with long-term health advantages, yet how life satisfaction impacts the trajectory of long-term health is unclear. This paper examines one such possible mechanism-that greater life satisfaction confers momentary benefits in daily life that accumulate over time. A community sample of working adults (n = 115) completed a measure of life satisfaction and then three subsequent days of ecological momentary assessment surveys (6 times/day) measuring affect (i.e., emotional valence, arousal), and perceived stress, and also provided salivary cortisol samples. Multilevel models indicated that people with higher (vs. lower) levels of life satisfaction reported better momentary affect, less stress, marginally lower momentary levels and significantly altered diurnal slopes of cortisol. Findings suggest individuals with high global life satisfaction have advantageous daily experiences, providing initial evidence for potential mechanisms through which global life satisfaction may help explain long-term health benefits.

  15. Using a life cycle assessment methodology for the analysis of two treatment systems of food-processing industry wastewaters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maya Altamira, Larisa; Schmidt, Jens Ejbye; Baun, Anders

    2007-01-01

    are the parameters that have the greatest influence on the potential environmental impacts of the systems analyzed. In this study, we present a systematic methodology for the analysis of the operation of two modern wastewater treatment technologies: Biological removal of nitrogen and organic matter by activated......Feasibility evaluation of wastewater treatment plants’ designs & operation strategies is nowadays done in a plant-wide perspective. Environmental concerns regarding energy consumption and sludge disposal are the main drivers to consider pre/post-treatment units in these evaluations. Existing...... criteria involve sludge disposal strategies and electrical energy consumption. However, there is a need to develop a systematic methodology to quantify relevant environmental indicators; comprising information of the wastewater treatment system in a life cycle perspective. Also, to identify which...

  16. Improvement of methodological and data background for life cycle assessment of nano-metaloxides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miseljic, Mirko

    that considers the whole life cycle of a product or system and is able to quantify impacts from a wide range of impact categories. In theory LCA is the needed tool, but still there is a limited amount of LCAs performed on ENM products and there are concerns raised on how to apply such a tool on an emerging......Engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) introduction into consumer products and the increasing amount of ENM product has led to concerns. Based on this, an all-inclusive environmental assessment method of the potential impacts from these is needed. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an assessment method...... that there are several challenges. Firstly the LCAs are limited to the first part of the life cycle, the cradle-to-gate. The main reason for this is that the data and approaches for assessing the remainder of the life cycle are not there. Industrial data inventories are missing, e.g. the data for production of ENMs...

  17. Extended Aging Theories for Predictions of Safe Operational Life of Critical Airborne Structural Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, William L.; Chen, Tony

    2006-01-01

    The previously developed Ko closed-form aging theory has been reformulated into a more compact mathematical form for easier application. A new equivalent loading theory and empirical loading theories have also been developed and incorporated into the revised Ko aging theory for the prediction of a safe operational life of airborne failure-critical structural components. The new set of aging and loading theories were applied to predict the safe number of flights for the B-52B aircraft to carry a launch vehicle, the structural life of critical components consumed by load excursion to proof load value, and the ground-sitting life of B-52B pylon failure-critical structural components. A special life prediction method was developed for the preflight predictions of operational life of failure-critical structural components of the B-52H pylon system, for which no flight data are available.

  18. Theory of Economic Life Prediction and Reliability Assessment of Aircraft Structures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Chuliang; LIU Kege

    2011-01-01

    The theory of economic life prediction and reliability assessment of aircraft structures has a significant effect on safety of aircraft structures.It is based on the two-stage theory of fatigue process and can guarantee the safety and reliability of structures.According to the fatigue damage process, the fatigue scatter factors of crack initiation stage and crack propagation stage are given respectively.At the same time, mathematical models of fatigue life prediction are presented by utilizing the fatigue scatter factors and full scale test results of aircraft structures.Furthermore, the economic life model is put forward.The model is of significant scientific value for products to provide longer economic life, higher reliability and lower cost.The theory of economic life prediction and reliability assessment of aircraft structures has been successfully applied to determining and extending the structural life for thousands of airplanes.

  19. Life Prediction of Atmospheric Plasma-Sprayed Thermal Barrier Coatings Using Temperature-Dependent Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, B.; Chen, Kuiying; Baddour, N.; Patnaik, P. C.

    2017-06-01

    The failure analysis and life prediction of atmospheric plasma-sprayed thermal barrier coatings (APS-TBCs) were carried out for a thermal cyclic process. A residual stress model for the top coat of APS-TBC was proposed and then applied to life prediction. This residual stress model shows an inversion characteristic versus thickness of thermally grown oxide. The capability of the life model was demonstrated using temperature-dependent model parameters. Using existing life data, a comparison of fitting approaches of life model parameters was performed. A larger discrepancy was found for the life predicted using linearized fitting parameters versus temperature compared to those using non-linear fitting parameters. A method for integrating the residual stress was proposed by using the critical time of stress inversion. The role of the residual stresses distributed at each individual coating layer was explored and their interplay on the coating's delamination was analyzed.

  20. A method for uncertainty quantification in the life prediction of gas turbine components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lodeby, K.; Isaksson, O.; Jaervstraat, N. [Volvo Aero Corporation, Trolhaettan (Sweden)

    1998-12-31

    A failure in an aircraft jet engine can have severe consequences which cannot be accepted and high requirements are therefore raised on engine reliability. Consequently, assessment of the reliability of life predictions used in design and maintenance are important. To assess the validity of the predicted life a method to quantify the contribution to the total uncertainty in the life prediction from different uncertainty sources is developed. The method is a structured approach for uncertainty quantification that uses a generic description of the life prediction process. It is based on an approximate error propagation theory combined with a unified treatment of random and systematic errors. The result is an approximate statistical distribution for the predicted life. The method is applied on life predictions for three different jet engine components. The total uncertainty became of reasonable order of magnitude and a good qualitative picture of the distribution of the uncertainty contribution from the different sources was obtained. The relative importance of the uncertainty sources differs between the three components. It is also highly dependent on the methods and assumptions used in the life prediction. Advantages and disadvantages of this method is discussed. (orig.) 11 refs.

  1. Advancing absolute sustainability assessments of products with a new Planetary Boundaries based life-cycle impact assessment methodology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryberg, Morten; Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Richardson, Katherine

    an operational life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) methodology where the definition of the impact categories is based on the control variables as defined in the PB-framework by Steffen et al (2015). This included the development and calculation of characterization factors for the Earth System processes......The Planetary Boundaries (PB)-framework introduced quantitative boundaries for a set of biophysical Earth System processes. The PBs delimit a ‘safe operating space' for humanity to act within to keep Earth in a Holocene-like state (Rockström et al 2009). The concept has gained strong interest from...

  2. Fatigue life prediction of crankshaft repaired by twin arc spraying

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Guo-qing; WANG Cheng-tao; PU Geng-qiang

    2005-01-01

    This paper used Baumel Jr. and Seeger's approach estimating fatigue parameters of 48MnV with 3Cr13coatings. The fatigue life of the crankshaft of a six-cylinder engine, repaired by twin arc spraying 3cr13 deposits, is respectively calculated using different damage model such as S-N method, normal strain approaches, SWT-Bannantine approaches, shear strain approaches, and fatemi-Socie method based on dynamical simulation and FE analysis of crankshaft. The results indicate that the traditional calculation is conservative and that the life of crankshaft repaired by arc spraying is sufficient.

  3. Predicting the evolution of social networks with life cycle events

    OpenAIRE

    Sharmeen, F Fariya; Arentze, TA Theo; Timmermans, HJP Harry

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a model of social network evolution, to predict and simulate changes in social networks induced by lifecycle events. We argue that social networks change with lifecycle events, and we extend a model of friendship selection to incorporate these dynamics of personal social networks. The model uses theories of homophily and reciprocity and is formulated in a random utility maximization framework to predict the formation of social ties between individuals in the population. It...

  4. Life prediction of thermal-mechanical fatigue using strain-range partitioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halford, G. R.; Manson, S. S.

    1975-01-01

    The applicability is described of the method of Strainrange Partitioning to the life prediction of thermal-mechanical strain-cycling fatigue. An in-phase test on 316 stainless steel is analyzed as an illustrative example. The observed life is in excellent agreement with the life predicted by the method using the recently proposed Step-Stress Method of experimental partitioning, the Interation Damage Rule, and the life relationships determined at an isothermal temperature of 705 C. Implications of the study are discussed relative to the general thermal fatigue problem.

  5. Evaluation of creep-fatigue life-prediction models for the solar central receiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyzak, J. M.; Hughes, D. A.

    1981-09-01

    The applicability of several creep fatigue models to life prediction of boiler tubes in a solar central receiver (SCR) was evaluated. The SCR boiler tubes will experience compressive strain dwell loading with hold times up to 6 to 8 hours at temperatures where time dependent deformation will occur. The evaluation criteria include the ability of the model to account for mean stress effects and to be practical in the long life, small strain range regime. A correlation between maximum tensile stress and fatigue life is presented. Using this correlation, compressive dwell behavior is predicted based on continuous cycling data. The limits of this predictive scheme are addressed.

  6. Stand-alone flat-plate photovoltaic power systems: System sizing and life-cycle costing methodology for Federal agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borden, C. S.; Volkmer, K.; Cochrane, E. H.; Lawson, A. C.

    1984-01-01

    A simple methodology to estimate photovoltaic system size and life-cycle costs in stand-alone applications is presented. It is designed to assist engineers at Government agencies in determining the feasibility of using small stand-alone photovoltaic systems to supply ac or dc power to the load. Photovoltaic system design considerations are presented as well as the equations for sizing the flat-plate array and the battery storage to meet the required load. Cost effectiveness of a candidate photovoltaic system is based on comparison with the life-cycle cost of alternative systems. Examples of alternative systems addressed are batteries, diesel generators, the utility grid, and other renewable energy systems.

  7. Life cycle inventory modelling of land use induced by crop consumption - Part 1: Conceptual analysis and methodological proposal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kløverpris, Jesper; Wenzel, Henrik; Nielsen, Per H.

    2008-01-01

    to reflect long-term changes, and possibly establishment of a link between crop demand and technological development. Through this approach, life cycle inventories for crops reflecting the actual land use consequences of consumption can be established.Recommendations and Perspectives. Further work (based......Background, Aims and Scope. The actual land use consequences of crop consumption are not very well reflected in existing life cycle inventories. The state of the art is that such inventories typically include data from crop production in the country in which the crop is produced, and consequently...... the inventories do not necessarily consider the land ultimately affected in the systems being studied. The aims of this study are to analyse the mechanisms influencing the long-term land use consequences of changes in crop demand and to propose a methodological framework for identifying these consequences within...

  8. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A.

    1995-12-31

    Emphasis is placed on life characterization based on low cycle fatigue under isothermal conditions and thermomechanical fatigue. Microstructure of failed coated and uncoated specimens is being analyzed. IN 738 LC is the material; the coating is either overlay (NiCoCrAly) or NiAl-based aluminide.

  9. Health-related quality of life in non-small-cell lung cancer: An update of a systematic review on methodologic issues in randomized controlled trials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Claassens (Lily); J. van Meerbeeck (Jan); C. Coens (Corneel); C. Quinten (Chantal); I. Ghislain (Irina); E.K. Sloan (Elizabeth); X.S. Wang (Xin Shelly); G. Velikova (Galina); A. Bottomley (Andrew)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractPurpose This study is an update of a systematic review of health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) methodology reporting in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The objective was to evaluate HRQOL methodology reporting over the last decade and its benefit

  10. Fatigue in high speed aluminium craft: Evaluating a design methodology for estimating the fatigue life using large scale tests and full scale trials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drummen, I.; Schiere, M.; Tuitman, J.T.

    2013-01-01

    Within the VOMAS project, a methodology has been developed to estimate the fatigue life of high-speed aluminium crafts. This paper presents the large scale test and full scale trials which were done to acquire data for evaluating the developed methodology and presents results of this evaluation. Dur

  11. Methodology of on-line prediction and fuel management of the modular pebble-bed high-temperature reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bing, X.; Fu, L.; Yanhua, Z.; Fubing, C.; Jian, Z.; Jiong, G., E-mail: xiabing@tsinghua.edu.cn [Tsinghua Univ., Inst. of Nuclear and New Energy Technology (INET), Beijing (China)

    2014-07-01

    The modular pebble-bed high-temperature reactors (PB-HTRs), featured by the inherent safety and modular design concept, are considered as one of the promising candidates for the nuclear system of next generation. The characteristics of on-line successive fueling, as well as the features of small excess reactivity and lack of reactivity control methods, make the fuel management and operation of PB-HTRs coupled tightly with each other. The on-line fuel management of PB-HTRs needs the capability of on-line prediction for future operation scenarios based on the combination of several tightly coupled key parameters of the reactor core, including the power level of reactor core, the unloading speed and loading ratio of fuel/dummy pebbles, and the control rod positions. The methodology of on-line prediction is proposed, and then verified by the model of the HTR-10, a small test modular PB-HTR with nominal power of 10 MW. For different combinations, the prediction sequences are calculated by using the computer code system of VSOP for both equilibrium state and running-in phase, especially the latter. The prediction results are analyzed by using a series of data processing based on the polynomial interpolation to determine the optimized parameters for fuel management and core operation of next step. The verification of methodology on the HTR-10 model demonstrates the feasibility of the on-line prediction and fuel management of modular PH-HTRs. (author)

  12. Applying unit process life cycle inventor (UPLCI) methodology in product/packaging combinatons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Luttikhuis, Ellen; Toxopeus, Marten E.; Overcash, M.; Nee, Andrew Y.C.; Song, Bin; Ong, Soh-Khim

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses how the UPLCI approach can be used for determining the inventory of the manufacturing phases of product/packaging combinations. The UPLCI approach can make the inventory of the manufacturing process of the product that is investigated more accurate. The life cycle of

  13. A novel dataset for real-life evaluation of facial expression recognition methodologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siddiqi, Muhammad Hameed; Ali, Maqbool; Idris, Muhammad; Banos, Oresti; Lee, Sungyoung; Choo, Hyunseung

    2016-01-01

    One limitation seen among most of the previous methods is that they were evaluated under settings that are far from real-life scenarios. The reason is that the existing facial expression recognition (FER) datasets are mostly pose-based and assume a predefined setup. The expressions in these datasets

  14. Development of life cycle assessment methodology: a focus on co-product allocation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Curran (Mary Ann)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractLife Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a developing tool that can assist decision-makers in evaluating the comparative potential cradle-to-grave, environmental impacts of their actions in order to prevent unintended consequences. The LCA tool is designed to assist in the evaluation along the ‘va

  15. Fotohistorias : Participatory photography as a methodology to elicit the life experiences of migrants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yefimova, Katya; Neils, Moriah; Newell, Bryce; Gomez, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    We present the results of a participatory photography approach to eliciting the life experiences and worldviews of undocumented Hispanic migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border. While offering a space for reflection, Fotohistorias explores how undocumented migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border express their

  16. Applying unit process life cycle inventor (UPLCI) methodology in product/packaging combinatons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Luttikhuis, E.J.; Toxopeus, M.E.; Overcash, M.; Nee, Andrew Y.C.; Song, Bin; Ong, Soh-Khim

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses how the UPLCI approach can be used for determining the inventory of the manufacturing phases of product/packaging combinations. The UPLCI approach can make the inventory of the manufacturing process of the product that is investigated more accurate. The life cycle of product/pac

  17. Fotohistorias : Participatory photography as a methodology to elicit the life experiences of migrants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yefimova, Katya; Neils, Moriah; Newell, Bryce; Gomez, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    We present the results of a participatory photography approach to eliciting the life experiences and worldviews of undocumented Hispanic migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border. While offering a space for reflection, Fotohistorias explores how undocumented migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border express their

  18. Development of life cycle assessment methodology: a focus on co-product allocation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Curran (Mary Ann)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractLife Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a developing tool that can assist decision-makers in evaluating the comparative potential cradle-to-grave, environmental impacts of their actions in order to prevent unintended consequences. The LCA tool is designed to assist in the evaluation along the

  19. The Systems Development Life Cycle as a Planning Methodology for Library Automation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheatham, David

    1985-01-01

    Discussion of the systems development life cycle (SDLC) that supports operational and managerial planning of automation projects covers challenges of library automation, evolution and scope of SDLC, lack of dissemination of SDLC literature within library and information science community, and corrective measures to meet library automation demands.…

  20. Predicting professional quality of life among professional and volunteer caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avieli, Hila; Ben-David, Sarah; Levy, Inna

    2016-01-01

    This study is one of the few that has compared volunteers' professional quality of life (PQL), which includes secondary traumatic stress (STS), burnout, and compassion satisfaction (CS), to those of professional caregivers. In addition, the research compared the ethical behavior of volunteers with that of professional therapists and examined the connection between years of experience, ethical behavior, and PQL. One hundred eighty-three volunteers and professional caregivers filled out a sociodemographic questionnaire, an Ethical Behavior Questionnaire and the Professional Quality of Life (ProQOL) questionnaire. The results indicated that professional caregivers report lower levels of STS and burnout, and higher levels of CS and ethical behavior compared with volunteer caregivers. Moreover, the findings suggest that ethical behavior correlates with STS, burnout, and CS. Ethical behavior has a protective value for mental health caregivers. The discussion emphasizes the value of a professional code of ethics and ethical training for professional and volunteering caregivers.

  1. Fatigue Life Prediction of Ductile Iron Based on DE-SVM Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiqun, Ma; Xiaoping, Wang; lun, An

    the model, predicting fatigue life of ductile iron, based on SVM (Support Vector Machine, SVM) has been established. For it is easy to fall into local optimum during parameter optimization of SVM, DE (Differential Evolution algorithm, DE) algorithm was adopted to optimize to improve prediction precision. Fatigue life of ductile iron is predicted combining with concrete examples, and simulation experiment to optimize SVM is conducted adopting GA (Genetic Algorithm), ACO (Ant Colony Optimization) and POS (Partial Swarm Optimization). Results reveal that DE-SVM algorithm is of a better prediction performance.

  2. Predicting quality of work life on nurses' intention to leave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Wen; Dai, Yu-Tzu; Park, Chang-Gi; McCreary, Linda L

    2013-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between quality of work life (QWL) and nurses' intention to leave their organization (ITLorg). A descriptive cross-sectional survey design was conducted using purposive sampling of 1,283 nurses at seven hospitals in Taiwan. Data were collected from March to June 2012. Three questionnaires, including the Chinese version of the Quality of Nursing Work Life scale (C-QNWL), a questionnaire of intention to leave the organization, and a demographic questionnaire, with two informed consent forms were delivered to the nurses at their workplaces. Descriptive data, Pearson's correlations, and the ordinal regression model were analyzed. Over half (52.5%) of nurses had ITLorg. Seven QWL dimensions were significantly negatively correlated with ITLorg (r = -0.17 to -0.37, p working in a nonteaching hospital. Four of the QWL dimensions--supportive milieu with job security and professional recognition, work arrangement and workload, work or home life balance, and nursing staffing and patient care--were also predictors of ITLorg. Three QWL dimensions were not predictors of ITLorg. This study showed that individual-related variables (being single, having a diploma or lower educational level), a work-related variable (working at a nonteaching hospital), and the four QWL dimensions play a significant role in nurses' ITLorg. After the QWL dimensions were added to the regression, the variance explained by the model more than doubled. To reduce nurses' ITLorg, nursing administrators may offer more focused interventions to improve the supportive milieu with job security and professional recognition, work arrangement and workload, work or home life balance, and nursing staffing and patient care. © 2013 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  3. Patterns, entropy, and predictability of human mobility and life

    CERN Document Server

    Qin, Shao-Meng; Mohtaschemi, Mikael; Hartonen, Tuomo; Alava, Mikko

    2012-01-01

    Cellular phones are now offering an ubiquitous means for scientists to observe life: how people act, move and respond to external influences. They can be utilized as measurement devices of individual persons and for groups of people of the social context and the related interactions. The picture of human life that emerges shows complexity, which is manifested in such data in properties of the spatiotemporal tracks of individuals. We extract from smartphone-based data for a set of persons important locations such as "home", "work" and so forth over fixed length time-slots covering the days in the data-set. This set of typical places is heavy-tailed, a power-law distribution with an exponent close to -1.7. To analyze the regularities and stochastic features present, the days are classified for each person into regular, personal patterns. To this are superimposed fluctuations for each day. This randomness is measured by "life" entropy, computed both before and after finding the clustering so as to subtract the c...

  4. Multicriteria decision-making analysis based methodology for predicting carbonate rocks' uniaxial compressive strength

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ersoy Hakan

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    ABSTRACT

    Uniaxial compressive strength (UCS deals with materials' to ability to withstand axially-directed pushing forces and especially considered to be rock materials' most important mechanical properties. However, the UCS test is an expensive, very time-consuming test to perform in the laboratory and requires high-quality core samples having regular geometry. Empirical equations were thus proposed for predicting UCS as a function of rocks' index properties. Analytical hierarchy process and multiple regression analysis based methodology were used (as opposed to traditional linear regression methods on data-sets obtained from carbonate rocks in NE Turkey. Limestone samples ranging from Devonian to late Cretaceous ages were chosen; travertine-onyx samples were selected from morphological environments considering their surface environmental conditions Test results from experiments carried out on about 250 carbonate rock samples were used in deriving the model. While the hierarchy model focused on determining the most important index properties affecting on UCS, regression analysis established meaningful relationships between UCS and index properties; 0. 85 and 0. 83 positive coefficient correlations between the variables were determined by regression analysis. The methodology provided an appropriate alternative to quantitative estimation of UCS and avoided the need for tedious and time consuming laboratory testing


    RESUMEN

    La resistencia a la compresión uniaxial (RCU trata con la capacidad de los materiales para soportar fuerzas empujantes dirigidas axialmente y, especialmente, es considerada ser uno de las más importantes propiedades mecánicas de

  5. Application of time-temperature superposition method in thermal aging life prediction of shipboard cables

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DENG Wen-dong; CHEN Yi-yuan

    2014-01-01

    The life of shipboard cables will decrease due to the complex aging processes. In terms of the safety perspective, remaining life prediction of the cable is essential to maintain a reliable operation. In this paper, firstly, based on Arrhenius equation, residual life of new styrene-butadiene cable is calculated;result indicates that the degradation rate which changes with time is proportional to thermal temperature. Then second order dynamic model is adopted into the residual life prediction, combined with the time-temperature superposition method (TTSP), and a new residual life model is proposed. According to the accelerated thermal aging experiment data and Arrhenius equation, TTSP method demonstrates to be an efficient way for life prediction, and life at normal temperature can be estimated by this model. In order to monitor the state of styrene-butadiene cable more accurately, an improved residual life model based on equivalent environment temperature of cable is proposed, and life of cable under real operation is analyzed. Result indicates that this model is credible and reliable, and it provides an important theoretical base for residual life of cables.

  6. Life Prediction of Ball Grid Array Soldered Joints under Thermal Cycling Loading by Fracture Mechanics Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Fatigue crack propagation life of ball grid array (BGA) soldered joints during thermal cycling loading was investigated by fracture mechanics approach using finite element analysis. The relationships between the strain energy release rate (G) and crack size (α), thermal cycle numbers (N) can be derived. Based on the relationships, fatigue life of the soldered joints was determined. The results showed that crack propagation life was higher than crack initiation life. Therefore, it appears that it is more appropriate to predict the fatigue life of soldered joints using the fracture mechanics method.

  7. Extreme Environment Damage Index and Accumulation Model for CMC Laminate Fatigue Life Prediction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Materials Research & Design (MR&D) is proposing in the SBIR Phase II an effort to develop a tool for predicting the fatigue life of C/SiC composite...

  8. Study on effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of thin film structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Myung Soo [Ahtti Co., Seongnam (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jun Hyu [Tongmyong University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung Yup [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-15

    This paper describes the effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of structure made with thin film. It is well known that the mean stress influences fatigue life prediction of mechanical structure. We investigated a reasonable method for considering mean stress when fatigue strength assessment of micro structure of thin film should be performed. Fatigue tests of smooth specimen of beryllium-copper (BeCu) thin film were performed in ambient air at R = 0.1 with 5 Hz. A micro probe was designed and made with BeCu thin film by the precision press process. Fatigue tests of micro structure were performed with 5 Hz frequency, in ambient air to verify the fatigue life predicted by computer simulation through FE analysis. The fatigue life predicted by the Sa -N curve modified by Goodman method with principal stress through FE analysis shows a more reasonable result than other methods.

  9. Prediction of selectivity from morphological conditions: Methodology and a case study on cod (Gadus morhua)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herrmann, Bent; Krag, Ludvig Ahm; Frandsen, Rikke

    2009-01-01

    The FISHSELECT methodology. tools, and software were developed and used to measure the morphological parameters that determine the ability of cod to penetrate different mesh types, sizes, and openings. The shape of one cross-section at the cod's head was found to explain 97.6% of the mesh...

  10. A Methodology for Inclusion of Terrestrial Ecotoxic Impacts of Metals in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2011-01-01

    into account metal speciation and interactions with soil organic constituents, because these mechanisms control metal bioavailability and inuence their toxic properties. Transfer functions and geochemical speciation models are employed to calculate reactive and available fractions of metals in 1300 soils......Terrestrial ecotoxicity is in most cases not addressed or to a very limited extent in life cycle assessment (LCA). We are developing a new method for calculating terrestrial ecotoxicity characterization factor (CF) of metals for application in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). e method takes...... and the contribution of EF to the CF is within the same order of magnitude or lower comparing to that of the BF. us, FIAMs can be employed to calculate EFs for metals for which TBLMs are not available. From a set of spatially explicit CFs, site-generic CFs can be derived at global or continental scales...

  11. Life Cycle Assessment for desalination: a review on methodology feasibility and reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jin; Chang, Victor W-C; Fane, Anthony G

    2014-09-15

    As concerns of natural resource depletion and environmental degradation caused by desalination increase, research studies of the environmental sustainability of desalination are growing in importance. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an ISO standardized method and is widely applied to evaluate the environmental performance of desalination. This study reviews more than 30 desalination LCA studies since 2000s and identifies two major issues in need of improvement. The first is feasibility, covering three elements that support the implementation of the LCA to desalination, including accounting methods, supporting databases, and life cycle impact assessment approaches. The second is reliability, addressing three essential aspects that drive uncertainty in results, including the incompleteness of the system boundary, the unrepresentativeness of the database, and the omission of uncertainty analysis. This work can serve as a preliminary LCA reference for desalination specialists, but will also strengthen LCA as an effective method to evaluate the environment footprint of desalination alternatives.

  12. Methodologies to improve product life cycle decision making in the telecommunications industry

    OpenAIRE

    Mead, Carl Dennis

    2003-01-01

    This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University. As pressure from regulation and customers increases on telecommunications equipment manufacturers and service providers to reduce the hazardous material content of telecommunications products and generally improve environmental performance, new methods for Product Life Cycle Management are required. Supplier and component environmental evaluation are vital and fundamental elements of any Prod...

  13. Life Extension Methodologies and Risk-Based Inspection in the Management of Fracture Critical Aeroengine Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-02-01

    stresses. The life-to-first- crack distributions and the propagation lives obtained in the nickel-base superalloys used in aeroengine discs appear to...aircraft. Turbine and compressor discs and shafts are identified as the major fracture critical components. They experience extreme thermo- mechanical...airworthiness, and integrity of fracture components such as discs and shafts throughout their service operation. Such events are non-random and hence

  14. Methodological aspects of environmental assessment of livestock production by LCA (Life Cycle Assessment)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamelin, Lorie; Wenzel, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    to include, the stages of the livestock system to comprise and the effects on adjoining systems like energy and fertilizer production to account for. Further, it explains the comparative nature of environmental assessment and how to use reference systems as the basis of comparison of alternative techniques......This paper illustrates the necessity to use a holistic perspective when striving to assess the environmental performance of a livestock production system. It elaborates on the methodological dimension of livestock- related LCAs, i.e. it describes the essential environmental impacts categories....... It illustrates a Danish example of establishing data of such reference systems. Finally, it provides an overview of approaches used to estimate emissions based on knowledge of manure composition throughout the stages of the livestock production system....

  15. Innovative methodology for intercomparison of radionuclide calibrators using short half-life in situ prepared radioactive sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, P. A. [Centro de Investigação do Instituto Português de Oncologia do Porto Francisco Gentil, EPE, Porto, Portugal and Departamento de Física e Astronomia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto (Portugal); Santos, J. A. M., E-mail: joao.santos@ipoporto.min-saude.pt [Centro de Investigação do Instituto Português de Oncologia do Porto Francisco Gentil, EPE, Porto (Portugal); Serviço de Física Médica do Instituto Português de Oncologia do Porto Francisco Gentil, EPE, Porto (Portugal); Serviço de Medicina Nuclear do Instituto Português de Oncologia do Porto Francisco Gentil, EPE, Porto (Portugal); Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas Abel Salazar, Universidade do Porto, Porto (Portugal)

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: An original radionuclide calibrator method for activity determination is presented. The method could be used for intercomparison surveys for short half-life radioactive sources used in Nuclear Medicine, such as{sup 99m}Tc or most positron emission tomography radiopharmaceuticals. Methods: By evaluation of the resulting net optical density (netOD) using a standardized scanning method of irradiated Gafchromic XRQA2 film, a comparison of the netOD measurement with a previously determined calibration curve can be made and the difference between the tested radionuclide calibrator and a radionuclide calibrator used as reference device can be calculated. To estimate the total expected measurement uncertainties, a careful analysis of the methodology, for the case of{sup 99m}Tc, was performed: reproducibility determination, scanning conditions, and possible fadeout effects. Since every factor of the activity measurement procedure can influence the final result, the method also evaluates correct syringe positioning inside the radionuclide calibrator. Results: As an alternative to using a calibrated source sent to the surveyed site, which requires a relatively long half-life of the nuclide, or sending a portable calibrated radionuclide calibrator, the proposed method uses a source preparedin situ. An indirect activity determination is achieved by the irradiation of a radiochromic film using {sup 99m}Tc under strictly controlled conditions, and cumulated activity calculation from the initial activity and total irradiation time. The irradiated Gafchromic film and the irradiator, without the source, can then be sent to a National Metrology Institute for evaluation of the results. Conclusions: The methodology described in this paper showed to have a good potential for accurate (3%) radionuclide calibrators intercomparison studies for{sup 99m}Tc between Nuclear Medicine centers without source transfer and can easily be adapted to other short half-life radionuclides.

  16. Fatigue life prediction and strength degradation of wind turbine rotor blade composites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijssen, R.P.L.

    2006-01-01

    Wind turbine rotor blades are subjected to a large number of highly variable loads, but life predictions are typically based on constant amplitude fatigue behaviour. Therefore, it is important to determine how service life under variable amplitude fatigue can be estimated from constant amplitude fat

  17. Structural health monitoring for fatigue life prediction of orthotropic brdige decks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pijpers, R.J.M.; Pahlavan, P.L.; Paulissen, J.H.; Hakkesteegt, H.C.; Jansen, T.H.

    2013-01-01

    Infrastructure asset owners are more and more confronted with structures reaching the end of their structural life. Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems should provide up-to-date information about the actual condition, as well predict the structural life and required maintenance of the assets

  18. Academic Life Satisfaction Scale (ALSS) and Its Effectiveness in Predicting Academic Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.K. Sudheesh; P., Dileep

    2006-01-01

    This study is undertaken to examine the effectiveness of a newly constructed psychometric instrument to assess Academic Life Satisfaction along with the components of Emotional Intelligence. The Academic Life Satisfaction Scale is used to predict the scholastic achievement as an index of Academic success. The investigators found that Academic Life…

  19. Getting What You Expect? Future Self-Views Predict the Valence of Life Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Peggy; Kornadt, Anna E.; Rothermund, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    Views on aging have been shown to predict the occurrence of events related to physical health in previous studies. Extending these findings, we investigated the relation between aging-related future self-views and life events in a longitudinal study across a range of different life domains. Participants (N = 593, age range 30-80 years at…

  20. Submarine Propulsion Shaft Life: Probabilistic Prediction and Extension through Prevention of Water Ingress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Inspection. Reliability Engineering and System Safety , 271-292. 47 Shi, P., & Mahadevan, S. (2001). Damage Tolerance Approach for Probabilistic ...Submarine Propulsion Shaft Life: Probabilistic Prediction and Extension through Prevention of Water Ingress By Douglas E. Jonart M.S. Systems...number. 1. REPORT DATE 01 JUN 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Submarine Propulsion Shaft Life: Probabilistic

  1. Dynamic testing of learning potential in adults with cognitive impairments: A systematic review of methodology and predictive value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boosman, Hileen; Bovend'Eerdt, Thamar J H; Visser-Meily, Johanna M A; Nijboer, Tanja C W; van Heugten, Caroline M

    2016-09-01

    Dynamic testing includes procedures that examine the effects of brief training on test performance where pre- to post-training change reflects patients' learning potential. The objective of this systematic review was to provide clinicians and researchers insight into the concept and methodology of dynamic testing and to explore its predictive validity in adult patients with cognitive impairments. The following electronic databases were searched: PubMed, PsychINFO, and Embase/Medline. Of 1141 potentially relevant articles, 24 studies met the inclusion criteria. The mean methodological quality score was 4.6 of 8. Eleven different dynamic tests were used. The majority of studies used dynamic versions of the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test. The training mostly consisted of a combination of performance feedback, reinforcement, expanded instruction, or strategy training. Learning potential was quantified using numerical (post-test score, difference score, gain score, regression residuals) and categorical (groups) indices. In five of six longitudinal studies, learning potential significantly predicted rehabilitation outcome. Three of four studies supported the added value of dynamic testing over conventional testing in predicting rehabilitation outcome. This review provides preliminary support that dynamic tests can provide a valuable addition to conventional tests to assess patients' abilities. Although promising, there was a large variability in methods used for dynamic testing and, therefore, it remains unclear which dynamic testing methods are most appropriate for patients with cognitive impairments. More research is warranted to further evaluate and refine dynamic testing methodology and to further elucidate its predictive validity concerning rehabilitation outcomes relative to other cognitive and functional status indices.

  2. Methodology Guidelines on Life Cycle Assessment of Photovoltaic Electricity: 3rd Edition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frischknecht, Rolf; Heath, Garvin; Raugei, Marco; Sinha, Parikhit; de Wild-Scholten, Mariska

    2016-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying material- and energy-flows and their associated emissions caused in the life cycle of goods and services. The ISO 14040 and 14044 standards provide the framework for LCA. However, this framework leaves the individual practitioner with a range of choices that can affect the results and thus the conclusions of an LCA study. The current IEA guidelines were developed to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, and quality to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results from LCAs on photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation systems. The guidelines represent a consensus among the authors - PV LCA experts in North America, Europe, and Asia - for assumptions made on PV performance, decisions on process input and emissions allocation, methods of analysis, and reporting of the results. Guidance is given on PV-specific parameters used as inputs in LCA and on choices and assumptions in life cycle inventory (LCI) data analysis and on implementation of modeling approaches. A consistent approach towards system modeling, the functional unit, the system boundaries, water use modeling and the allocation aspects enhances the credibility of PV electricity LCA studies and enables balanced LCA-based comparisons of different electricity producing technologies. The document discusses metrics like greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), cumulative energy demand (CED), acidification potential (AP), ozone depletion potential (ODP), human toxicity, ecotoxicity and ionizing radiation. Guidance is given for the definition of the energy payback time (EPBT), the nonrenewable energy payback time (NREPBT), and the impact mitigation potentials (IMP). The indicator energy return on investment (EROI) is described in a separate International Energy Agency (IEA) PV Power Systems (PVPS) Task 12 report (Raugei et al. 2015). The guidelines on the reporting and communication of the results serve the need for

  3. [Background and first results about methodological characteristics of the Aachen Life Quality Inventory].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hütter, B O; Gilsbach, J M

    2001-01-01

    Health-related quality of life has become an important criterion for assessing disease impact and treatment outcome. Therefore, we developed a questionnaire called Aachen Life Quality Inventory (ALQI) for the use in neurosurgical patients with brain damage. The ALQI is derived from the German version of the Sickness Impact Profile (SIP). The 117 items are formulated on a concrete behavioral level covering the following dimensions of health-related quality of life: 1. activation; 2. mobility; 3. house-work; 4. social contact; 5. family relations; 6. ambulation; 7. work; 8. free-time activities; 9. autonomy; 10. communication; 11. cognitive capacity. As in the SIP, a summary score of total impairment (ALQI Total score), a summary score covering the psycho-social dimension (ALQI Psycho-social score) and a summary score covering aspects of physical functioning (ALQI Physical score) can be calculated. The ALQI consists of a self-rating and a parallel proxy-rating version. The ALQI was validated and psychometrically verified using the data of as yet 231 neurosurgical patients with brain damage of mixed etiology (subarachnoid hemorrhage, closed-head injury, benign brain tumors). Internal consistency (Cronbach's Alpha) ranged from.68 to.91 for the subscales, while it was.97 for the whole instrument,.94 for the psycho-social and.93 for the physical score. The internal consistency for the subscales of the proxy-rating version of the ALQI ranged between.77 and.92, while it was.97 for the whole inventory and.94 for the psycho-social and the physical scores, respectively. Examination of construct validity revealed substantial correlations with a wide range of relevant neurological, neurosurgical and neuropsychological parameters. Beyond other findings, substantial associations emerged with several neuropsychological tests (r =.30 to r =.50), the Glasgow Outcome Scale (r =.39; p <.00) and in patients after subarachnoid hemorrhage with the Hunt& Hess grading (r =.28; p <.001

  4. A novel prediction methodology for detecting failures and instabilities in directional wireless networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, David M.; Milner, Stuart D.; Davis, Christopher C.

    2012-10-01

    Even though advances in wireless technology have yielded lower power consumption, higher data rates, and numerous other improvements, the ability to develop a proactive strategy towards handling degradations and failures in directional wireless networks has evaded the research community. In this paper, we introduce a methodology using an analogy to molecular systems in which a directional wireless network utilizing free space optical (FSO) or RF links is modeled as a molecule whose links can grow/retract similarly to bonds. A normal mode analysis (NMA) is performed to identify link instabilities (degradations and failures) and an N-dimensional potential energy surface (PES) is derived with respect to network and environmental parameters to aide in the detection of when a new topology is available ahead of the topology computation stage. Together, the NMA and PES form a basis for a proactive network methodology aimed at improving performance in directional wireless networks.

  5. An equivalent strain/Coffin-Manson approach to multiaxial fatigue and life prediction in superelastic Nitinol medical devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runciman, Amanda; Xu, David; Pelton, Alan R; Ritchie, Robert O

    2011-08-01

    Medical devices, particularly endovascular stents, manufactured from superelastic Nitinol, a near-equiatomic alloy of Ni and Ti, are subjected to complex mixed-mode loading conditions in vivo, including axial tension and compression, radial compression, pulsatile, bending and torsion. Fatigue lifetime prediction methodologies for Nitinol, however, are invariably based on uniaxial loading and thus fall short of accurately predicting the safe lifetime of stents under the complex multiaxial loading conditions experienced physiologically. While there is a considerable body of research documented on the cyclic fatigue of Nitinol in uniaxial tension or bending, there remains an almost total lack of comprehensive fatigue lifetime data for other loading conditions, such as torsion and tension/torsion. In this work, thin-walled Nitinol tubes were cycled in torsion at various mean and alternating strains to investigate the fatigue life behavior of Nitinol and results compared to equivalent fatigue data collected under uniaxial tensile/bending loads. Using these strain-life results for various loading modes and an equivalent referential (Lagrangian) strain approach, a strategy for normalizing these data is presented. Based on this strategy, a fatigue lifetime prediction model for the multiaxial loading of Nitinol is presented utilizing a modified Coffin-Manson approach where the number of cycles to failure is related to the equivalent alternating transformation strain.

  6. Methodology for Life Testing of Refractory Metal/Sodium Heat Pipes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, James J.; Reid, Robert S.

    2006-01-01

    The focus of this work was to establish an approach to generate carefully controlled data that can conclusively establish heat pipe operating life with material-fluid combinations capable of extended operation. To accomplish this goal acceleration is required to compress 10 years of operational life into 3 years of laboratory testing through a combination of increased temperature and mass fluence. Specific test series have been identi3ed, based on American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) specifications, to investigate long term corrosion rates. The refractory metal selected for demonstration purposes is a Molybdenum-44.5%Rhenium alloy formed by powder metallurgy. The heat pipe makes use of an annular crescent wick design formed by hot isostatic pressing of Molybdenum-Rhenium wire mesh. The heat pipes are filled using vacuum distillation and purity sampling is considered. Testing of these units is round-the-clock with 6-month destructive and non-destructive inspection intervals to identify the onset and level of corrosion. Non-contact techniques are employed for providing power to the evaporator (radio frequency induction heating at I to 5 kW per unit) and calorimetry at the condenser (static gas gap coupled water cooled calorimeter). The planned operating temperature range would extend from 1123 to 1323 K. Accomplishments prior to project cancellation included successful demonstration of the heat pipe wick fabrication technique, establishment of all engineering designs, baselined operational test requirements and procurement/assembly of supporting test hardware systems.

  7. Crack Growth Modeling and Life Prediction of Pipeline Steels Exposed to Near-Neutral pH Environments: Stage II Crack Growth and Overall Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jiaxi; Chen, Weixing; Yu, Mengshan; Chevil, Karina; Eadie, Reg; Been, Jenny; Van Boven, Greg; Kania, Richard; Keane, Sean

    2017-04-01

    This investigation was initiated to provide governing equations for crack initiation, crack growth, and service life prediction of pipeline steels in near-neutral pH (NNpH) environments. This investigation develops a predictive model considering loading interactions occurring during oil and gas pipeline operation with underload-type variable pressure fluctuations. This method has predicted lifetimes comparable to the actual service lives found in the field. This is in sharp contrast with the predictions made by existing methods that are either conservative or inconsistent with the field observations. It has been demonstrated that large slash loads ( R-ratio is 0.05), often seen during gas pipeline operation, are a major life-limiting factor and should be avoided where possible. Oil pipelines have shorter lifetime because of their more frequent pressure fluctuations and larger amplitude load cycles. The accuracy of prediction can be improved if pressure data with appropriate sampling intervals are used. The sampling interval error is much larger in the prediction of oil pipelines than gas pipelines because of their different compressibility but is minimized if the pressure sampling rate for the data is at or less than one minute.

  8. A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology For Electrolytic Capacitors Based On Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical...

  9. A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for elec- trolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical...

  10. Time-Delay Artificial Neural Network Computing Models for Predicting Shelf Life of Processed Cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Goyal

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the capability of Time–delay artificial neural network models for predicting shelf life of processed cheese. Datasets were divided into two subsets (30 for training and 6 for validation. Models with single and multi layers were developed and compared with each other. Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, Coefficient of Determination and Nash -
    Sutcliffo Coefficient were used as performance evaluators, Time- delay model predicted the shelf life of processed cheese as 28.25 days, which is very close to experimental shelf life of 30 days.

  11. Study of the spiritual intelligence role in predicting university students' quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolghan-Abadi, Mustafa; Ghofrani, Fatemeh; Abde-Khodaei, Mohammad Saeed

    2014-02-01

    The aim of the study is to investigate the spiritual intelligence role in predicting Quchan University students' quality of life. In order to collect data, a sample of 143 students of Quechan University was selected randomly enrolled for 89-90 academic year. The instruments of the data collecting are World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQOL) and Spiritual Intelligence Questionnaire. For analyzing the data, the standard deviation, and Pearson's correlation coefficient in descriptive level, and in inferential level, the regression test was used. The results of the study show that the spiritual intelligence has effective role on predicting quality of life.

  12. Developing Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula: a Systematic Review of Methodology and Reporting Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhang; Guo, Ya; Xu, Banghao; Xiao, Kaiyin; Peng, Tao; Peng, Minhao

    2016-04-01

    Postoperative pancreatic fistula is still a major complication after pancreatic surgery, despite improvements of surgical technique and perioperative management. We sought to systematically review and critically access the conduct and reporting of methods used to develop risk prediction models for predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases to identify articles published before January 1, 2015, which described the development of models to predict the risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula. We extracted information of developing a prediction model including study design, sample size and number of events, definition of postoperative pancreatic fistula, risk predictor selection, missing data, model-building strategies, and model performance. Seven studies of developing seven risk prediction models were included. In three studies (42 %), the number of events per variable was less than 10. The number of candidate risk predictors ranged from 9 to 32. Five studies (71 %) reported using univariate screening, which was not recommended in building a multivariate model, to reduce the number of risk predictors. Six risk prediction models (86 %) were developed by categorizing all continuous risk predictors. The treatment and handling of missing data were not mentioned in all studies. We found use of inappropriate methods that could endanger the development of model, including univariate pre-screening of variables, categorization of continuous risk predictors, and model validation. The use of inappropriate methods affects the reliability and the accuracy of the probability estimates of predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula.

  13. Methodology to improve design of accelerated life tests in civil engineering projects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lin

    Full Text Available For reliability testing an Energy Expansion Tree (EET and a companion Energy Function Model (EFM are proposed and described in this paper. Different from conventional approaches, the EET provides a more comprehensive and objective way to systematically identify external energy factors affecting reliability. The EFM introduces energy loss into a traditional Function Model to identify internal energy sources affecting reliability. The combination creates a sound way to enumerate the energies to which a system may be exposed during its lifetime. We input these energies into planning an accelerated life test, a Multi Environment Over Stress Test. The test objective is to discover weak links and interactions among the system and the energies to which it is exposed, and design them out. As an example, the methods are applied to the pipe in subsea pipeline. However, they can be widely used in other civil engineering industries as well. The proposed method is compared with current methods.

  14. Methodology to improve design of accelerated life tests in civil engineering projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jing; Yuan, Yongbo; Zhou, Jilai; Gao, Jie

    2014-01-01

    For reliability testing an Energy Expansion Tree (EET) and a companion Energy Function Model (EFM) are proposed and described in this paper. Different from conventional approaches, the EET provides a more comprehensive and objective way to systematically identify external energy factors affecting reliability. The EFM introduces energy loss into a traditional Function Model to identify internal energy sources affecting reliability. The combination creates a sound way to enumerate the energies to which a system may be exposed during its lifetime. We input these energies into planning an accelerated life test, a Multi Environment Over Stress Test. The test objective is to discover weak links and interactions among the system and the energies to which it is exposed, and design them out. As an example, the methods are applied to the pipe in subsea pipeline. However, they can be widely used in other civil engineering industries as well. The proposed method is compared with current methods.

  15. Evaluation of corrosion fatigue and life prediction of lower arm for automotive suspension component

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yong-Sang; Kim, Jung-Gu

    2017-01-01

    Lower arm is one of the suspension components of automobile. It is suffered from driving vibration and corrosive environment, namely corrosion fatigue. In this study, corrosion fatigue property of lower arm was investigated, and a modified model based on Palmgren-Miner rule was developed to predict the lifetimes of corrosion fatigue. The corrosion fatigue life of lower arm was about 1/6 times shorter than fatigue life. Based on the results of corrosion fatigue tests and meteorological data in Seoul and Halifax, the corrosion fatigue life of lower arm was predicted. The satisfaction of 10-year and 300,000 km warranty was dominated by the climate of automobile driving. This prediction indicates that the weather condition or driving condition influences the life of automotive parts. Therefore, to determine the warranty of automotive parts, the driving condition has to be carefully considered.

  16. Time Perspectives Predict Mood States and Satisfaction with Life over and above Personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolarski, Maciej; Matthews, Gerald

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed to test the incremental validity of Time Perspective (TP) scales in predicting satisfaction with life and mood, over and above the Big Five personality traits. It also investigated whether the new TP construct of Future Negative perspective contributed to prediction of these outcomes. Participants (N = 265) completed four measures: Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS), UWIST Mood Adjective Checklist (UMACL), a modified Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI), and NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). Results confirmed the incremental validity of TP, although Big Five dimensions were independently predictive of life satisfaction and certain mood scales. Past Negative TP was the strongest single predictor of life satisfaction. However, Future Negative TP was be the strongest mood predictor from the TP universe, after controlling for the Big Five and remaining TP dimensions. Findings suggest that TP is an important aspect of personality for understanding individual differences in well-being.

  17. A new model for the life prediction of GH4133 under TMF conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Thermal mechanical cyclic strain tests were carried out under in-phase and out-of-phase conditions on a Nickel-base Superalloy GH4133 in the temperature range of 571-823℃. Based on analyzing the present models of TMF (thermal mechanical fatigue) life prediction, a new model for predicting nickel-base superalloy TMF lifetime was proposed.TMF life of superalloy GH4133 was calculated accurately based on the new model. Experimental TMF life has been compared with the calculatedresults and all results fall in the scatter band of 1.5. The calculating results show that the new model is not only simple, but also precise. This model will play great roles in life prediction of the metal materials and the engineering components subjected to non-isothermal service conditions.

  18. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap percentile estimates for predicting presidential election results in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Ansah-Narh, Theophilus; Asah-Asante, Richard; Minkah, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Although, there exists numerous literature on the procedure for forecasting or predicting election results, in Ghana only opinion poll strategies have been used. To fill this gap, the paper develops Markov chain models for forecasting the 2016 presidential election results at the Regional, Zonal (i.e. Savannah, Coastal and Forest) and the National levels using past presidential election results of Ghana. The methodology develops a model for prediction of the 2016 presidential election results in Ghana using the Markov chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap estimates. The results were that the ruling NDC may marginally win the 2016 Presidential Elections but would not obtain the more than 50 % votes to be declared an outright winner. This means that there is going to be a run-off election between the two giant political parties: the ruling NDC and the major opposition party, NPP. The prediction for the 2016 Presidential run-off election between the NDC and the NPP was rather in favour of the major opposition party, the NPP with a little over the 50 % votes obtained.

  19. Engineering Predictions in Industrial and Power Flows Using the Retrograde Condensation Curve. Part I-Methodology

    CERN Document Server

    Labinov, Mark S

    2014-01-01

    Industrial and power systems rely on engineering predictions of the flow properties of working fluids. The paper proposes a way of the utilization of the vapor quality values along the new retrograde condensation curve in the generation of the void fraction design guidelines and reliable prediction of the saturated liquid specific volumes/densities. The new procedure eliminates the involvement of semi-empirical relationships like rectilinear diameter and other similar models.

  20. LINEAR LAYER AND GENERALIZED REGRESSION COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE MODELS FOR PREDICTING SHELF LIFE OF PROCESSED CHEESE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Goyal

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the significance of computational intelligence models for predicting shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8 g.C. Linear Layer and Generalized Regression models were developed with input parameters: Soluble nitrogen, pH, Standard plate count, Yeast & mould count, Spores, and sensory score as output parameter. Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, Coefficient of Determination and Nash - Sutcliffo Coefficient were used in order to compare the prediction ability of the models. The study revealed that Generalized Regression computational intelligence models are quite effective in predicting the shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8 g.C.

  1. Time – Delay Simulated Artificial Neural Network Models for Predicting Shelf Life of Processed Cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Goyal

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the significance of Time-Delay ANN models for predicting shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8o^C. Bayesian regularization algorithm was selected as training function. Number of neurons in single and multiple hidden layers varied from 1 to 20. The network was trained with up to 100 epochs. Mean square error, root mean square error, coefficient of determination and nash - Sutcliffe coefficient were used for calculating the prediction capability of the developed models. Time-Delay ANN models with multilayer are quite efficient in predicting the shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8o^C.

  2. Prediction of multiaxial fatigue life for notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Z. R.; Li, Z. X. [Southeast University, Nanjing (China); Hu, X. T.; Song, Y. D. [Nanjing University, Nanjing (China)

    2016-05-15

    Both the proportional and nonproportional multiaxial fatigue tests were conducted on two kinds of notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4. The multiaxial fatigue critical area of notched specimen is considered as the location experiencing the maximum damage. It is unsatisfactory to predict the multiaxial fatigue life with the local stress and strain in the fatigue critical area. The critical distance concepts are employed in the multiaxial life prediction method for notched specimens. The proposed method was checked by the test data of TC4 notched specimens. The prediction results are almost within a factor of three scatter band of the test results.

  3. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  4. Response surface methodology for predicting quality characteristics of beef patties added with flaxseed and tomato paste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenzuela Melendres, M; Camou, J P; Torrentera Olivera, N G; Alvarez Almora, E; González Mendoza, D; Avendaño Reyes, L; González Ríos, H

    2014-05-01

    Response surface methodology was used to study the effect of flaxseed flour (FS) and tomato paste (TP) addition, from 0 to 10% and 0 to 20% respectively, on beef patty quality characteristics. The assessed quality characteristics were color (L, a, and b), pH and texture profile analysis (TPA). Also, sensory analysis was performed for the assessment of color, juiciness, firmness, and general acceptance. FS addition reduced L and a values and decreased weight loss of cooked products (Psensory characteristics of the cooked product (Psensory characteristics evaluated had an acceptable score (>5.6). Thus FS and TP are ingredients that can be used in beef patty preparation.

  5. Impacts of “metals” on human health: uncertainties in using different Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methodologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pizzol, Massimo; Christensen, Per; Schmidt, Jannick Højrup

    This study looks into the uncertainties in determining the impact of “metals” emissions to human health, in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA). Metals are diverse substances, with different proprieties and characteristics, considered important in LCIA because of their toxicity to humans...... or ecosystems. Various methodologies for LCIA are at the present time available, but we believe that big differences exist in the way they address human toxicity of metals. After a research on relevant literature sources, we identified four scientific criteria for the definition of which metals should...... be considered in an impact assessment focused on human health, and defined a list of 14 metals. We performed a contribution analysis in order to compare methods in relative terms; an approach successfully used in other studies. Various processes have been analyzed with 8 different LCIA methods in order...

  6. The Primacy of Autonomy in My Life Without Me (2002: An Example of Methodology for Medical Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Casado da Rocha

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes the film My Life without Me as being representative of the increasing importance of the autonomy of terminally ill patients in today’s society at the start of the third millennium. After discussing the basic moral conflict underlying the story, we sketch the contribution of bioethics to the configuration of an autonomist alternative to the traditional paternalistic model in the physician-patient relationship, using the work of Diego Gracia as a reference to clinical ethics in Spanish. To go further into the moral deliberation about the end of people’s lives, we address a version of the methodology proposed in 2001 by that author for the analysis of cases in bioethics, using cinematographic narrative as a particularly rich and versatile material with which to work.

  7. GIS-based regionalized life cycle assessment: how big is small enough? Methodology and case study of electricity generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutel, Christopher L; Pfister, Stephan; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2012-01-17

    We describe a new methodology for performing regionalized life cycle assessment and systematically choosing the spatial scale of regionalized impact assessment methods. We extend standard matrix-based calculations to include matrices that describe the mapping from inventory to impact assessment spatial supports. Uncertainty in inventory spatial data is modeled using a discrete spatial distribution function, which in a case study is derived from empirical data. The minimization of global spatial autocorrelation is used to choose the optimal spatial scale of impact assessment methods. We demonstrate these techniques on electricity production in the United States, using regionalized impact assessment methods for air emissions and freshwater consumption. Case study results show important differences between site-generic and regionalized calculations, and provide specific guidance for future improvements of inventory data sets and impact assessment methods.

  8. Using a life cycle assessment methodology for the analysis of two treatment systems of food-processing industry wastewaters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maya Altamira, Larisa; Schmidt, Jens Ejbye; Baun, Anders

    2007-01-01

    sludge (Scenario 1), and anaerobic removal of organic matter by a continuous stirred tank reactor (Scenario 2). Both technologies were applied to wastewater coming from a fish meals industry and a pet food industry discharging about 250 to 260 thousand cubic meters of wastewater per year. The methodology...... comprises three major steps: (i) Data gathering regarding wastewater characteristics and discharge, (ii) Simulation of the wastewater treatment plant’s operation by dedicated process engineering models in Matlab/Simulink, (iii) Classification and calculation of life cycle inventory data: removal...... boundaries were limited from the influent entering the wastewater treatment plant until the disposal of the effluents generated, i.e. wastewater, sludge, and biogas (for Scenario 2). Main differences between Scenario 1 & Scenario 2 were: (i) Effluent quality was 65% better when pet food wastewater was fed...

  9. A methodology to incorporate life cycle analysis and the triple bottom line mechanism for sustainable management of industrial enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ling; Lin, Li

    2004-02-01

    Since 1970"s, the environmental protection movement has challenged industries to increase their investment in Environmentally Conscious Manufacturing (ECM) techniques and management tools. Social considerations for global citizens and their descendants also motivated the examination on the complex issues of sustainable development beyond the immediate economic impact. Consequently, industrial enterprises have started to understand sustainable development in considering the Triple Bottom Line (TBL): economic prosperity, environmental quality and social justice. For the management, however, a lack of systematic ECM methodologies hinders their effort in planning, evaluating, reporting and auditing of sustainability. To address this critical need, this research develops a framework of a sustainable management system by incorporating a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) of industrial operations with the TBL mechanism. A TBL metric system with seven sets of indices for the TBL elements and their complex relations is identified for the comprehensive evaluation of a company"s sustainability performance. Utilities of the TBL indices are estimated to represent the views of various stakeholders, including the company, investors, employees and the society at large. Costs of these indices are also captured to reflect the company"s effort in meeting the utilities. An optimization model is formulated to maximize the economic, environmental and social benefits by the company"s effort in developing sustainable strategies. To promote environmental and social consciousness, the methodology can significantly facilitate management decisions by its capabilities of including "non-business" values and external costs that the company has not contemplated before.

  10. A comparison methodology for measured and predicted displacement fields in modal analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, C. M.; López-Alba, E.; Patterson, E. A.

    2017-07-01

    Recent advances in experimental mechanics have enabled full-field measurements of deformation fields and - particularly in the field of solid mechanics - methodologies have been proposed for utilizing these fields in the validation of computational models. However, the comparison of modal shapes and the path from the undeformed shape to the deformed shape at the extreme of a vibration cycle is not straightforward. Therefore a new method to compare vibration data from experiment to simulations is presented which uses full-field experimental data from the entire cycle of vibration. Here, the first three modes of vibration of an aerospace panel were compared, covering a frequency range of 14-59 Hz and maximum out-of-plane displacements of 2 mm. Two different comparison methodologies are considered; the first is the use of confidence bands, previously explored for quasi-static loading, the second is the use of a concordance correlation coefficient, which provides quantifiable information about the validity of the simulation. In addition, three different simulation conditions were considered, representing a systematic refinement of the model. It was found that meaningful conclusions can be drawn about the simulation by comparing individual components of deformation from the image decomposition process, such as the relative phase and magnitude. It was ultimately found that the best performing model did not entirely fall within the confidence bounds for all conditions, but returned a concordance correlation coefficient of nearly 70% for all three modes.

  11. Two-step sensitivity testing of parametrized and regionalized life cycle assessments: methodology and case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutel, Christopher L; de Baan, Laura; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2013-06-04

    Comprehensive sensitivity analysis is a significant tool to interpret and improve life cycle assessment (LCA) models, but is rarely performed. Sensitivity analysis will increase in importance as inventory databases become regionalized, increasing the number of system parameters, and parametrized, adding complexity through variables and nonlinear formulas. We propose and implement a new two-step approach to sensitivity analysis. First, we identify parameters with high global sensitivities for further examination and analysis with a screening step, the method of elementary effects. Second, the more computationally intensive contribution to variance test is used to quantify the relative importance of these parameters. The two-step sensitivity test is illustrated on a regionalized, nonlinear case study of the biodiversity impacts from land use of cocoa production, including a worldwide cocoa products trade model. Our simplified trade model can be used for transformable commodities where one is assessing market shares that vary over time. In the case study, the highly uncertain characterization factors for the Ivory Coast and Ghana contributed more than 50% of variance for almost all countries and years examined. The two-step sensitivity test allows for the interpretation, understanding, and improvement of large, complex, and nonlinear LCA systems.

  12. TMC Behavior Modeling and Life Prediction Under Multiaxial Stresses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrick, H. F.; Aksoy, S. Z.; Costen, M.; Ahmad, J.

    1998-01-01

    The goal of this program was to manufacture and burst test small diameter SCS-6/Ti-6Al-4V composite rings for use in the design of an advanced titanium matrix composite (TMC) impeller. The Textron Specialty Metals grooved foil-fiber process was successfully used to make high quality TMC rings. A novel spin test arbor with "soft touch" fingers to retain the TMC ring was designed and manufactured. The design of the arbor took into account its use for cyclic experiments as well as ring burst tests. Spin testing of the instrumented ring was performed at ambient, 149C (300F), and 316C (600F) temperatures. Assembly vibration was encountered during spin testing but this was overcome through simple modification of the arbor. A spin-to-burst test was successfully completed at 316C (600F). The rotational speed of the TMC ring at burst was close to that predicted. In addition to the spin test program, a number of SCS-6/Ti-6Al-4V test panels were made. Neat Ti-6Al-4V panels also were made.

  13. Personality traits predicting quality of life and overall functioning in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridgewell, Caitlin; Blackford, Jennifer Urbano; McHugo, Maureen; Heckers, Stephan

    2017-04-01

    Clinical symptoms and sociodemographic variables predict level of functioning and quality of life in patients with schizophrenia. However, few studies have examined the effect of personality traits on quality of life and overall functioning in schizophrenia. Personality traits are premorbid to illness and may predict the way patients experience schizophrenia. The aim of this study was to examine the individual and additive effects of two core personality traits-neuroticism and extraversion-on quality of life and functioning. Patients with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (n=153) and healthy controls (n=125) completed personality and quality of life questionnaires. Global functioning was assessed during a clinician-administered structured interview. Neuroticism and extraversion scores were analyzed both as continuous variables and as categorical extremes (High versus Normal Neuroticism, Low versus Normal Extraversion). Quality of life was significantly associated with neuroticism, extraversion, and the neuroticism×diagnosis and extraversion×diagnosis interactions. For patients, a lower neuroticism score (in the normal range) was associated with quality of life scores comparable to controls; whereas high neuroticism scores in patients were associated with the lowest quality of life. For overall functioning, only diagnosis had a significant effect. Neuroticism modulates quality of life and may provide an important key to improving the life of patients with schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Quantification of rainfall prediction uncertainties using a cross-validation based technique. Methodology description and experimental validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraga, Ignacio; Cea, Luis; Puertas, Jerónimo; Salsón, Santiago; Petazzi, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    In this paper we present a new methodology to compute rainfall fields including the quantification of predictions uncertainties using raingauge network data. The proposed methodology comprises two steps. Firstly, the ordinary krigging technique is used to determine the estimated rainfall depth in every point of the study area. Then multiple equi-probable errors fields, which comprise both interpolation and measuring uncertainties, are added to the krigged field resulting in multiple rainfall predictions. To compute these error fields first the standard deviation of the krigging estimation is determined following the cross-validation based procedure described in Delrieu et al. (2014). Then, the standard deviation field is sampled using non-conditioned Gaussian random fields. The proposed methodology was applied to study 7 rain events in a 60x60 km area of the west coast of Galicia, in the Northwest of Spain. Due to its location at the junction between tropical and polar regions, the study area suffers from frequent intense rainfalls characterized by a great variability in terms of both space and time. Rainfall data from the tipping bucket raingauge network operated by MeteoGalicia were used to estimate the rainfall fields using the proposed methodology. The obtained predictions were then validated using rainfall data from 3 additional rain gauges installed within the CAPRI project (Probabilistic flood prediction with high resolution hydrologic models from radar rainfall estimates, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness. Reference CGL2013-46245-R.). Results show that both the mean hyetographs and the peak intensities are correctly predicted. The computed hyetographs present a good fit to the experimental data and most of the measured values fall within the 95% confidence intervals. Also, most of the experimental values outside the confidence bounds correspond to time periods of low rainfall depths, where the inaccuracy of the measuring devices

  15. A new Cumulative Damage Model for Fatigue Life Prediction under Shot Peening Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul-Jabar H. Ali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD,Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM, new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CDandCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM, are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and conservative prediction of fatigue life in comparison with CD and CDM methods. The prediction of the present model gave slightly below the experimental data while the CDM gave overestimate prediction and CD showed strongly underestimates the life of specimens.

  16. Validation of Framework Code Approach to a Life Prediction System for Fiber Reinforced Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravett, Phillip

    1997-01-01

    The grant was conducted by the MMC Life Prediction Cooperative, an industry/government collaborative team, Ohio Aerospace Institute (OAI) acted as the prime contractor on behalf of the Cooperative for this grant effort. See Figure I for the organization and responsibilities of team members. The technical effort was conducted during the period August 7, 1995 to June 30, 1996 in cooperation with Erwin Zaretsky, the LERC Program Monitor. Phil Gravett of Pratt & Whitney was the principal technical investigator. Table I documents all meeting-related coordination memos during this period. The effort under this grant was closely coordinated with an existing USAF sponsored program focused on putting into practice a life prediction system for turbine engine components made of metal matrix composites (MMC). The overall architecture of the NMC life prediction system was defined in the USAF sponsored program (prior to this grant). The efforts of this grant were focussed on implementing and tailoring of the life prediction system, the framework code within it and the damage modules within it to meet the specific requirements of the Cooperative. T'he tailoring of the life prediction system provides the basis for pervasive and continued use of this capability by the industry/government cooperative. The outputs of this grant are: 1. Definition of the framework code to analysis modules interfaces, 2. Definition of the interface between the materials database and the finite element model, and 3. Definition of the integration of the framework code into an FEM design tool.

  17. Prediction of the phase equilibria of methane hydrates using the direct phase coexistence methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalis, Vasileios K; Costandy, Joseph; Tsimpanogiannis, Ioannis N; Stubos, Athanassios K; Economou, Ioannis G

    2015-01-28

    The direct phase coexistence method is used for the determination of the three-phase coexistence line of sI methane hydrates. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are carried out in the isothermal-isobaric ensemble in order to determine the coexistence temperature (T3) at four different pressures, namely, 40, 100, 400, and 600 bar. Methane bubble formation that results in supersaturation of water with methane is generally avoided. The observed stochasticity of the hydrate growth and dissociation processes, which can be misleading in the determination of T3, is treated with long simulations in the range of 1000-4000 ns and a relatively large number of independent runs. Statistical averaging of 25 runs per pressure results in T3 predictions that are found to deviate systematically by approximately 3.5 K from the experimental values. This is in good agreement with the deviation of 3.15 K between the prediction of TIP4P/Ice water force field used and the experimental melting temperature of ice Ih. The current results offer the most consistent and accurate predictions from MD simulation for the determination of T3 of methane hydrates. Methane solubility values are also calculated at the predicted equilibrium conditions and are found in good agreement with continuum-scale models.

  18. ESTABLISHING EMPIRICAL RELATION TO PREDICT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF VORTEX TUBE USING RESPONSE SURFACE METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PRABAKARAN J.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Vortex tube is a device that produces cold and hot air simultaneously from the source of compressed air. In this work an attempt has been made to investigate the effect of three controllable input variables namely diameter of the orifices, diameter of the nozzles and inlet pressure over the temperature difference in the cold side as output using Response Surface Methodology (RSM. Experiments are conducted using central composite design with three factors at three levels. The influence of vital parameters and interaction among these are investigated using analysis of variance (ANOVA. The proposed mathematical model in this study has proven to fit and in line with experimental values with a 95% confidence interval. It is found that the inlet pressure and diameter of nozzle are significant factors that affect the performance of vortex tube.

  19. Stand-alone flat-plate photovoltaic power systems: system sizing and life-cycle costing methodology for federal agencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borden, C.S.; Volkmer, K.; Cochrane, E.H.; Lawson, A.C.

    1984-05-01

    A simple methodology to estimate photovoltaic system size and life-cycle costs in stand-along applications is presented in this document. It is designed to assist engineers at government agencies in determining the feasibility of using small stand-alone photovoltaic systems to supply ac or dc power to the load. Photovoltaic system design considerations are presented as well as the equations for sizing the flat-plate array and the battery storage to meet the required load. Cost effectiveness of a candidate photovoltaic system is based on comparison with the life-cycle cost of alternative systems. Examples of alternative systems addressed herein are batteries, diesel generators, the utility grid, and other renewable energy systems. A companion document, Flat-Plate Photovoltaic Power Systems Handbook for Federal Agencies (Reference 10), is recommended for discussion of issues for evaluating the viability of potential photovoltaic applications; descriptions of present photovoltaic system applications; synthesis of lessons learned from photovoltaic system design, installation, and operation; and identification of procurement strategies for federal agencies.

  20. Void damage model and service life prediction for solid high polymer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Based on the analysis of three void damage variety models, this note presents ( i ) a method that regards the void content as a damage variation of the grain and ( ii ) a geometric model for micro-unit of void damage. Equations of the void damage variety containing void content are analyzed. This work is focused on the measurement of internal damage level and the damage variety estimation is directly related to the life predication in the practical engineering applications. Nowadays, the critical service life of the solid grain/polymers is usually presumed at domestic and international level. The strength or strain reduction of 20%or the stabilizer consumption of 50% is generally regarded as a critical storage life of the solid grain/polymers, and the service life is predicted by the extrapolation method on Anhenius formula. The applications, however, show that the above method is unreliable and has significant errors. With the aid of the discontiguous automatic measuring device of real time volume deformation and void content, the master curve of void damage variety, the storage service life and the surplus life of a solid rocket grain are obtained. Since the critical storage life has been measured, and the accuracy of the service life prediction has been greatly increased. It is a novel ideal and a break-through technique.

  1. Predicting the probability of slip in gait: methodology and distribution study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gragg, Jared; Yang, James

    2016-01-01

    The likelihood of a slip is related to the available and required friction for a certain activity, here gait. Classical slip and fall analysis presumed that a walking surface was safe if the difference between the mean available and required friction coefficients exceeded a certain threshold. Previous research was dedicated to reformulating the classical slip and fall theory to include the stochastic variation of the available and required friction when predicting the probability of slip in gait. However, when predicting the probability of a slip, previous researchers have either ignored the variation in the required friction or assumed the available and required friction to be normally distributed. Also, there are no published results that actually give the probability of slip for various combinations of required and available frictions. This study proposes a modification to the equation for predicting the probability of slip, reducing the previous equation from a double-integral to a more convenient single-integral form. Also, a simple numerical integration technique is provided to predict the probability of slip in gait: the trapezoidal method. The effect of the random variable distributions on the probability of slip is also studied. It is shown that both the required and available friction distributions cannot automatically be assumed as being normally distributed. The proposed methods allow for any combination of distributions for the available and required friction, and numerical results are compared to analytical solutions for an error analysis. The trapezoidal method is shown to be highly accurate and efficient. The probability of slip is also shown to be sensitive to the input distributions of the required and available friction. Lastly, a critical value for the probability of slip is proposed based on the number of steps taken by an average person in a single day.

  2. A simple methodology for predicting laser-weld properties from material and laser parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hann, D. B.; Iammi, J.; Folkes, J.

    2011-11-01

    In laser material processing, understanding the laser interaction and the effect of processing parameters on this interaction is fundamental to any process if the system is to be optimized. Expanding this to different materials or other laser systems with different beam characteristics makes this interaction more complex and difficult to resolve. This work presents a relatively simple physical model to understand these interactions in terms of mean surface enthalpy values derived from both material parameters and laser parameters. From these fundamental properties the melt depth and width for any material can be predicted using a simple theory. By considering the mean enthalpy of the surface, the transition from conduction limited melting to keyholing can also be accurately predicted. The theory is compared to experimental results and the predicted and observed data are shown to correspond well for these experimental results as well as for published results for stainless steel and for a range of metals. The results suggest that it is important to keep the Fourier number of the weld much smaller than one to make it efficient. It is also discussed that the surface enthalpy could be used to prodict other effects in the weld such as porosity and material expulsion.

  3. Sense of community: Dimensions predicting residential quality of life inneighbourhoods with different socioeconomic status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Hombrados-Mendieta

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The study aims were to identify which dimensions of the sense of community have the greatest positiveimpact on residential quality of life and which of these best predict the quality of life of residents accordingto the socioeconomic status of the neighbourhood. The study was conducted in 10 districts in Malaga City,Spain, with a total sample of 1,583 participants. Of these residents, 31% had a low socioeconomic status,34% had a medium socioeconomic status, and 35% had a high socioeconomic status. The participants wereselected using random route sampling. The results show that the 3 dimensions that best predictedresidential quality of life were the physical environment of the neighbourhood, administrative incentives,and social support from local authorities. The results also show that the dimensions of the sense ofcommunity that predicted residential quality of life changed according to the socioeconomic status of theneighbourhood. The implications of the study are discussed.

  4. Life Prediction Issues in Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ashwin R.; Brewer, David N.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

    2001-01-01

    Issues and design requirements for the environmental barrier coating (EBC)/thermal barrier coating (TBC) life that are general and those specific to the NASA Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) development program have been described. The current state and trend of the research, methods in vogue related to the failure analysis, and long-term behavior and life prediction of EBCITBC systems are reported. Also, the perceived failure mechanisms, variables, and related uncertainties governing the EBCITBC system life are summarized. A combined heat transfer and structural analysis approach based on the oxidation kinetics using the Arrhenius theory is proposed to develop a life prediction model for the EBC/TBC systems. Stochastic process-based reliability approach that includes the physical variables such as gas pressure, temperature, velocity, moisture content, crack density, oxygen content, etc., is suggested. Benefits of the reliability-based approach are also discussed in the report.

  5. Prediction of Fatigue Life of Boom Nose End Casting Using Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics

    OpenAIRE

    Nitin D.Ghongade; Rajesh.M. Metkar

    2014-01-01

    The main objective of this study is to get the life estimation of Boom nose end casting using theoretical approach and compaired it with finite element method. Therefore, this study consists of three major sections : (1) dynamic load analysis (2) FEM and stress analysis (3) prediction of fatigue life for Boom nose end casting. In this study a dynamic loads were obtained from cyclic loading at different time. Finite element analysis was performed to obtain the variation of stress...

  6. A core-monitoring based methodology for predictions of graphite weight loss in AGR moderator bricks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNally, K., E-mail: kevin.mcnally@hsl.gsi.gov.uk [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton, Derbyshire SK17 9JN (United Kingdom); Warren, N. [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton, Derbyshire SK17 9JN (United Kingdom); Fahad, M.; Hall, G.; Marsden, B.J. [Nuclear Graphite Research Group, School of MACE, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom)

    2017-04-01

    Highlights: • A statistically-based methodology for estimating graphite density is presented. • Graphite shrinkage is accounted for using a finite element model. • Differences in weight loss forecasts were found when compared to the existing model. - Abstract: Physically based models, resolved using the finite element (FE) method are often used to model changes in dimensions and the associated stress fields of graphite moderator bricks within a reactor. These models require inputs that describe the loading conditions (temperature, fluence and weight loss ‘field variables’), and coded relationships describing the behaviour of graphite under these conditions. The weight loss field variables are calculated using a reactor chemistry/physics code FEAT DIFFUSE. In this work the authors consider an alternative data source of weight loss: that from a longitudinal dataset of density measurements made on small samples trepanned from operating reactors during statutory outages. A nonlinear mixed-effect model is presented for modelling the age and depth-related trends in density. A correction that accounts for irradiation-induced dimensional changes (axial and radial shrinkage) is subsequently applied. The authors compare weight loss forecasts made using FEAT DIFFUSE with those based on an alternative statistical model for a layer four moderator brick for the Hinkley Point B, Reactor 3. The authors compare the two approaches for the weight loss distribution through the brick with a particular focus on the interstitial keyway, and for the average (over the volume of the brick) weight loss.

  7. Prediction and prevention of musculoskeletal injury: a paradigm shift in methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quatman, C E; Quatman, C C; Hewett, T E

    2009-12-01

    Traditional methods employed to study musculoskeletal injury mechanisms and joint biomechanics utilise in vivo or in vitro techniques. The advent of new technology and improved methods has also given rise to in silico (computer modelling) techniques. Under the current research paradigm, in vivo, in vitro and in silico methods independently provide information regarding the mechanisms and prevention of musculoskeletal injury. However, individually, each of these methods has multiple, inherent limitations and is likely to provide incomplete answers about multifactorial, complex injury conditions. The purpose of this treatise is to review current methods used to study, understand, and prevent musculoskeletal injury and to develop new conceptual-methodological frameworks that may help create a paradigm shift in musculoskeletal injury prevention research. We term the fusion of these three techniques in simulacra amalgama, or simply in sim, meaning a "union of models done on the likeness of phenomena." Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury will be employed as a model example for the utility and applicability of the proposed, synthesised approach. Shifting the current experimental paradigm to incorporate a multifaceted, multidisciplinary, integration of in vivo, in vitro and in silico methods into the proposed in sim approaches may provide a platform for a more comprehensive understanding of the relationships between complex joint biomechanics and observed injury mechanisms.

  8. Semiempirical Methodology for Estimating the Service Life of Concrete Deck Panels Strengthened with Fiber-Reinforced Polymer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eon-Kyoung Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Deterioration of concrete bridge decks affects their durability, safety, and function. It is therefore necessary to conduct structural rehabilitation of damaged concrete decks by strengthening them with fiber-reinforced polymer. Of the recent studies on the strengthened structures, most have focused on static behavior; only a few studies have investigated fatigue behavior. Accurate analysis of fatigue in concrete deck performance requires a more realistic simulated moving load. This study developed a theoretical live-load model to reflect the effect of moving vehicle loads, based on a statistical approach to the measurement of real traffic loads over various time periods in Korea. It assessed the fatigue life and strengthening effect of bridge decks strengthened with either carbon fiber sheets or grid carbon fiber polymer plastic using probabilistic and reliability analyses. It used extrapolations and simulations to derive maximum load effects for time periods ranging from 1 day to 75 years. Limited fatigue tests were conducted and probabilistic and reliability analyses were carried out on the strengthened concrete bridge deck specimens to predict the extended fatigue life. Analysis results indicated that strengthened concrete decks provide sufficient resistance against increasing truck loads during the service life of a bridge.

  9. One- and two-stage Arrhenius models for pharmaceutical shelf life prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Zhewen; Zhang, Lanju

    2015-01-01

    One of the most challenging aspects of the pharmaceutical development is the demonstration and estimation of chemical stability. It is imperative that pharmaceutical products be stable for two or more years. Long-term stability studies are required to support such shelf life claim at registration. However, during drug development to facilitate formulation and dosage form selection, an accelerated stability study with stressed storage condition is preferred to quickly obtain a good prediction of shelf life under ambient storage conditions. Such a prediction typically uses Arrhenius equation that describes relationship between degradation rate and temperature (and humidity). Existing methods usually rely on the assumption of normality of the errors. In addition, shelf life projection is usually based on confidence band of a regression line. However, the coverage probability of a method is often overlooked or under-reported. In this paper, we introduce two nonparametric bootstrap procedures for shelf life estimation based on accelerated stability testing, and compare them with a one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius prediction model. Our simulation results demonstrate that one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius method has significant lower coverage than nominal levels. Our bootstrap method gave better coverage and led to a shelf life prediction closer to that based on long-term stability data.

  10. Predicting The Service Life Of Concrete Bridges Based On Quantitative Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gode Kristaps

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A new method is proposed that will help predict the remaining service life of concrete bridges based on quantitative deterioration research. It is suggested that for a given degree of damage (stage and corresponding environmental and bridge design factors, there is only one time value. In that way it is possible to calculate the deterioration rate for given environmental and bridge design factors shared by many different bridges. The method can be used to calculate the key parameters for corrosion deterioration, thereby enabling the prediction of the remaining service life of a bridge using DuraCrete deterioration models

  11. Special purpose hybrid transfinite elements and unified computational methodology for accurately predicting thermoelastic stress waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamma, Kumar K.; Railkar, Sudhir B.

    1988-01-01

    This paper represents an attempt to apply extensions of a hybrid transfinite element computational approach for accurately predicting thermoelastic stress waves. The applicability of the present formulations for capturing the thermal stress waves induced by boundary heating for the well known Danilovskaya problems is demonstrated. A unique feature of the proposed formulations for applicability to the Danilovskaya problem of thermal stress waves in elastic solids lies in the hybrid nature of the unified formulations and the development of special purpose transfinite elements in conjunction with the classical Galerkin techniques and transformation concepts. Numerical test cases validate the applicability and superior capability to capture the thermal stress waves induced due to boundary heating.

  12. Methodology for predicting the young wrestlers success of sporting activities in various stages of ontogeny.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horiakov V.A.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The mathematical models to predict the success of judo 9-16 years, up to 81% are designed. It is based on anthropometric and psychophysiological parameters. For wrestlers 9-11 years the most important prognostic indicators are features of somatotype and the power of anaerobic energy mechanism. In the 12-13 years in the first place are the power of anaerobic energy mechanism and the functional state of sensory systems. For wrestlers aged 14-16 is the most important system-wide properties of the brain and the ergic of nervous system.

  13. Evaluation of a Multiscale Modelling Methodology to Predict the Mechanical Properties of PCL/β-TCP Sintered Scaffold Materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Heather; Lohfeld, Stefan; McDonnell, Pat; McHugh, Peter

    2015-08-01

    A multiscale modelling methodology to predict the macroscale stiffness of selective laser sintered polycaprolactone (PCL)/β-tricalcium phosphate (β-TCP) materials is evaluated. The relationship between a micromechanics-evaluated composite material elastic modulus (E eff) and segment grey-value (GVave) is established for a 90/10 wt% PCL/β-TCP material and compared to the previously established E eff vs. GVave relationship for a 50/50 wt% PCL/β-TCP material. The increase in E eff with GVave was found to be greater for the 90/10 wt% material than for the 50/50 wt% material. Differences in the material microstructures are visible with greater local conglomerations of β-TCP in the 90/10 wt% material compared to the 50/50 wt% material. These results indicate that the relationship between E eff and GVave is material-specific and that one definition cannot be used to describe both materials. We have used the E eff and GVave relationship specific to the 90/10 wt% material to assign element-specific elastic properties in a high resolution macroscale strut finite element model to successfully predict the experimentally-evaluated strut effective stiffness of the 90/10 wt%. These results combined indicate that this multiscale modelling methodology reasonably predicts the effective elastic modulus of selective laser sintering struts with different material configurations, and that it can be used to determine the material-specific definition of the relationship between E eff and GVave for a particular material.

  14. Implementation of Prognostic Methodologies to Cryogenic Propellant Loading Test-bed

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics methodologies determine the health state of a system and predict the end of life and remaining useful life. This information enables operators to take...

  15. Methodological challenges in quality of life research among Turkish and Moroccan ethnic minority cancer patients: translation, recruitment and ethical issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoopman, Rianne; Terwee, Caroline B; Muller, Martin J; Ory, Ferko G; Aaronson, Neil K

    2009-06-01

    The large population of first generation Turkish and Moroccan immigrants who moved to Western Europe in the 1960s and 1970s is now reaching an age at which the incidence of chronic diseases, including cancer, rises sharply. To date, little attention has been paid to the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of these ethnic minority groups, primarily due to the paucity of well translated and validated measures, but also because of a range of methodological and logistical barriers. The primary objective of this paper is to describe the methodological challenges in conducting HRQOL research among these patient populations, based on experience gained in a project in which four widely used HRQOL questionnaires were translated into Turkish, Moroccan-Arabic and Tarifit, and administered to a sample of 90 Turkish and 79 Moroccan cancer patients in the Netherlands. Problems encountered in translating and administering the questionnaires included achieving semantic equivalence (use of loanwords), use of numerical rating scales, lengthy questions and response scales, and culturally sensitive and/or inappropriate questions. Privacy laws that prohibit hospitals from registering the ethnicity of patients hampered efficient identification of eligible patients. Recruiting patients to studies is often difficult due to low literacy levels, lack of familiarity with and distrust of research, concerns about immigration status, and inaccurate or missing contact information. This can lead to lower response rates than is the case with the population of Dutch cancer patients. Additional ethical issues that arise in such studies concern patients' problems with communicating with their health care providers, their lack of understanding of their diagnosis, treatment and prognosis, and the potential role conflict experienced by bilingual research assistants who may wish or be asked to intervene on the patients' behalf. Practical approaches to resolving these issues are presented.

  16. Potential of artificial neural network technology for predicting shelf life of processed cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Goyal

    Full Text Available Radial basis (fewer neurons artificial neural network (ANN models were developed for predicting the shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8o C. Mean square error, root mean square error, coefficient of determination and nash - sutcliffo coefficient were applied in order to compare the prediction ability of the developed models. Soluble nitrogen, pH; standard plate count, yeast & mouldcount, and spore count were the input parameters, while sensory score was output parameter for the developed model. The developed model showed very good correlation between actual data and predicted data with high coefficient of determination and nash - sutcliffo coefficient besides low root mean square error, suggesting that the developed model is quite efficient in predicting the shelf life of processed cheese.

  17. Source Methodology for Turbofan Noise Prediction (SOURCE3D Technical Documentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Harold D.

    1999-01-01

    This report provides the analytical documentation for the SOURCE3D Rotor Wake/Stator Interaction Code. It derives the equations for the rotor scattering coefficients and stator source vector and scattering coefficients that are needed for use in the TFANS (Theoretical Fan Noise Design/Prediction System). SOURCE3D treats the rotor and stator as isolated source elements. TFANS uses this information, along with scattering coefficients for inlet and exit elements, and provides complete noise solutions for turbofan engines. SOURCE3D is composed of a collection of FORTRAN programs that have been obtained by extending the approach of the earlier V072 Rotor Wake/Stator Interaction Code. Similar to V072, it treats the rotor and stator as a collection of blades and vanes having zero thickness and camber contained in an infinite, hardwall annular duct. SOURCE3D adds important features to the V072 capability-a rotor element, swirl flow and vorticity waves, actuator disks for flow turning, and combined rotor/actuator disk and stator/actuator disk elements. These items allow reflections from the rotor, frequency scattering, and mode trapping, thus providing more complete noise predictions than previously. The code has been thoroughly verified through comparison with D.B. Hanson's CUP2D two- dimensional code using a narrow annulus test case.

  18. Prediction methodologies for target scene generation in the aerothermal targets analysis program (ATAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Douglas J.; Torres, Manuel; Dougherty, Catherine; Rajendran, Natesan; Thompson, Rhoe A.

    2003-09-01

    The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Aerothermal Targets Analysis Program (ATAP) is a user-friendly, engineering-level computational tool that features integrated aerodynamics, six-degree-of-freedom (6-DoF) trajectory/motion, convective and radiative heat transfer, and thermal/material response to provide an optimal blend of accuracy and speed for design and analysis applications. ATAP is sponsored by the Kinetic Kill Vehicle Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulator (KHILS) facility at Eglin AFB, where it is used with the CHAMP (Composite Hardbody and Missile Plume) technique for rapid infrared (IR) signature and imagery predictions. ATAP capabilities include an integrated 1-D conduction model for up to 5 in-depth material layers (with options for gaps/voids with radiative heat transfer), fin modeling, several surface ablation modeling options, a materials library with over 250 materials, options for user-defined materials, selectable/definable atmosphere and earth models, multiple trajectory options, and an array of aerodynamic prediction methods. All major code modeling features have been validated with ground-test data from wind tunnels, shock tubes, and ballistics ranges, and flight-test data for both U.S. and foreign strategic and theater systems. Numerous applications include the design and analysis of interceptors, booster and shroud configurations, window environments, tactical missiles, and reentry vehicles.

  19. A residual life prediction model based on the generalized σ -N curved surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongwen AN

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to investigate change rule of the residual life of structure under random repeated load, firstly, starting from the statistic meaning of random repeated load, the joint probability density function of maximum stress and minimum stress is derived based on the characteristics of order statistic (maximum order statistic and minimum order statistic; then, based on the equation of generalized σ -N curved surface, considering the influence of load cycles number on fatigue life, a relationship among minimum stress, maximum stress and residual life, that is the σmin(n- σmax(n-Nr(n curved surface model, is established; finally, the validity of the proposed model is demonstrated by a practical case. The result shows that the proposed model can reflect the influence of maximum stress and minimum stress on residual life of structure under random repeated load, which can provide a theoretical basis for life prediction and reliability assessment of structure.

  20. Ceramic material life prediction: A program to translate ANSYS results to CARES/LIFE reliability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vonhermann, Pieter; Pintz, Adam

    1994-01-01

    This manual describes the use of the ANSCARES program to prepare a neutral file of FEM stress results taken from ANSYS Release 5.0, in the format needed by CARES/LIFE ceramics reliability program. It is intended for use by experienced users of ANSYS and CARES. Knowledge of compiling and linking FORTRAN programs is also required. Maximum use is made of existing routines (from other CARES interface programs and ANSYS routines) to extract the finite element results and prepare the neutral file for input to the reliability analysis. FORTRAN and machine language routines as described are used to read the ANSYS results file. Sub-element stresses are computed and written to a neutral file using FORTRAN subroutines which are nearly identical to those used in the NASCARES (MSC/NASTRAN to CARES) interface.

  1. Predictive modelling for shelf life determination of nutricereal based fermented baby food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasane, Prasad; Jha, Alok; Sharma, Nitya

    2015-08-01

    A shelf life model based on storage temperatures was developed for a nutricereal based fermented baby food formulation. The formulated baby food samples were packaged and stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C for a test storage period of 180 days. A shelf life study was conducted using consumer and semi-trained panels, along with chemical analysis (moisture and acidity). The chemical parameters (moisture and titratable acidity) were found inadequate in determining the shelf life of the formulated product. Weibull hazard analysis was used to determine the shelf life of the product based on sensory evaluation. Considering 25 and 50 % rejection probability, the shelf life of the baby food formulation was predicted to be 98 and 322 days, 84 and 271 days, 71 and 221 days and 58 and 171 days for the samples stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C, respectively. A shelf life equation was proposed using the rejection times obtained from the consumer study. Finally, the formulated baby food samples were subjected to microbial analysis for the predicted shelf life period and were found microbiologically safe for consumption during the storage period of 360 days.

  2. Interparticle force based methodology for prediction of cohesive powder flow properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esayanur, Madhavan Sujatha Sarma

    The transport and handling of powders are key areas in the process industry that have a direct impact on the efficiency and/or the quality of the finished product. A lack of fundamental understanding of powder flow properties as a function of operating variables such as relative humidity, and particle size, leading to problems such as arching, rat-holing and segregation, is one the main causes for unscheduled down times in plant operation and loss of billions of dollars in revenues. Most of the current design strategies and characterization techniques for industrial powders are based on a continuum approach similar to the field of soil mechanics. Due to an increase in complexity of the synthesis process and reduction in size of powders to the nanoscale, the surface properties and inter particle forces play a significant role in determining the flow characteristics. The use of ensemble techniques such as direct shear testing to characterize powders are no longer adequate due to lack of understanding of the changes in the property of powders as a function of the major operating variables such as relative humidity, temperature etc. New instrumentation or techniques need to be developed to reliably characterize powder flow behavior. Simultaneously, scalability of the current models to predict powder flow needs to be revisited. Specifically, this study focuses on the development of an inter particle force based model for predicting the unconfined yield strength of cohesive powders. To understand the role of interparticle forces in determining the strength of cohesive powders, the particle scale interactions were characterized using Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM), contact angle, surface tension, and coefficient of friction. The bulk scale properties such as unconfined yield strength, packing structure, and size of the shear zone were also investigated. It was determined that an interparticle force based model incorporating the effect of particle size and packing structure

  3. Methodology for Quantitative Characterization of Fluorophore Photoswitching to Predict Superresolution Microscopy Image Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittel, Amy M.; Nickerson, Andrew; Saldivar, Isaac S.; Dolman, Nick J.; Nan, Xiaolin; Gibbs, Summer L.

    2016-07-01

    Single-molecule localization microscopy (SMLM) image quality and resolution strongly depend on the photoswitching properties of fluorophores used for sample labeling. Development of fluorophores with optimized photoswitching will considerably improve SMLM spatial and spectral resolution. Currently, evaluating fluorophore photoswitching requires protein-conjugation before assessment mandating specific fluorophore functionality, which is a major hurdle for systematic characterization. Herein, we validated polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) as a single-molecule environment to efficiently quantify the photoswitching properties of fluorophores and identified photoswitching properties predictive of quality SMLM images. We demonstrated that the same fluorophore photoswitching properties measured in PVA films and using antibody adsorption, a protein-conjugation environment analogous to labeled cells, were significantly correlated to microtubule width and continuity, surrogate measures of SMLM image quality. Defining PVA as a fluorophore photoswitching screening platform will facilitate SMLM fluorophore development and optimal image buffer assessment through facile and accurate photoswitching property characterization, which translates to SMLM fluorophore imaging performance.

  4. A computational approach for thermomechanical fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnasamy, Ram-Kumar; Seifert, Thomas; Siegele, Dieter [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    In this paper a computational approach for fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes is presented and applied to a dissimilar weld between tubes made of the nickel base alloy Alloy617 tube and the 12% chromium steel VM12. The approach comprises the calculation of the residual stresses in the welded tubes with a multi-pass dissimilar welding simulation, the relaxation of the residual stresses in a post weld heat treatment (PWHT) simulation and the fatigue life prediction using the remaining residual stresses as initial condition. A cyclic fiscoplasticity model is used to calculate the transient stresses and strains under thermocyclic service loadings. The fatigue life is predicted with a damage parameter which is based on fracture mechanics. The adjustable parameters of the model are determined based on LCF and TMF experiments. The simulations show, that the residual stresses that remain after PWHT further relax in the first loading cycles. The predicted fatigue lives depend on the residual stresses and, thus, on the choice of the loading cycle in which the damage parameter is evaluated. It the first loading cycle, where residual stresses are still present, is considered, lower fatigue lives are predicted compared to predictions considering loading cycles with relaxed residual stresses. (orig.)

  5. Looking beyond patients: Can parents' quality of life predict asthma control in children?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cano-Garcinuño, Alfredo; Mora-Gandarillas, Isabel; Bercedo-Sanz, Alberto; Callén-Blecua, María Teresa; Castillo-Laita, José Antonio; Casares-Alonso, Irene; Forns-Serrallonga, Dolors; Tauler-Toro, Eulàlia; Alonso-Bernardo, Luz María; García-Merino, Águeda; Moneo-Hernández, Isabel; Cortés-Rico, Olga; Carvajal-Urueña, Ignacio; Morell-Bernabé, Juan José; Martín-Ibáñez, Itziar; Rodríguez-Fernández-Oliva, Carmen Rosa; Asensi-Monzó, María Teresa; Fernández-Carazo, Carmen; Murcia-García, José; Durán-Iglesias, Catalina; Montón-Álvarez, José Luis; Domínguez-Aurrecoechea, Begoña; Praena-Crespo, Manuel

    2016-07-01

    Social and family factors may influence the probability of achieving asthma control in children. Parents' quality of life has been insufficiently explored as a predictive factor linked to the probability of achieving disease control in asthmatic children. Determine whether the parents' quality of life predicts medium-term asthma control in children. Longitudinal study of children between 4 and 14 years of age, with active asthma. The parents' quality of life was evaluated using the specific IFABI-R instrument, in which scores were higher for poorer quality of life. Its association with asthma control measures in the child 16 weeks later was analyzed using multivariate methods, adjusting the effect for disease, child and family factors. The data from 452 children were analyzed (median age 9.6 years, 63.3% males). The parents' quality of life was predictive for asthma control; each point increase on the initial IFABI-R score was associated with an adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 0.56 (0.37-0.86) for good control of asthma on the second visit, 2.58 (1.62-4.12) for asthma exacerbation, 2.12 (1.33-3.38) for an unscheduled visit to the doctor, and 2.46 (1.18-5.13) for going to the emergency room. The highest quartile for the IFABI-R score had a sensitivity of 34.5% and a specificity of 82.2% to predict poorly controlled asthma. Parents' poorer quality of life is related to poor, medium-term asthma control in children. Assessing the parents' quality of life could aid disease management decisions. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2016;51:670-677. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Artificial Neural Network Methodology In Fraud Risk Prediction On Financial Statements; An Emprical Study In Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Uğurlu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk is among the foremost risk factors that banks may encounter. Banking function is rendering credits. In rendering commercial credits based on fraudulent financial statements, credit risk can occur if banks cannot ensure the repayments of credits completely or partially. This case lead to an important problem for banks. The accuracy and reliability of information provided by financial statements are of crucial importance in credit risk management. In this context, main purpose of this study is to make it possible to predict fraud risk in financial statements. By doing so, it is possible prevent credit risk that may emerge in banks. In this study, to predict and deter mine fraud risk in financial statements, artificial neural network (ANN methodology is utilized. This research includes commercial and corporate customers of banks. Financial data of 289 firms, belonging to the year of 2007, (97 firms were assumed to have fraudulent financial statements and 192 firms were in control group was analyzed, and an ANN model is proposal. The proposal model that was developed is highly successful in predicting fraud risk in financial statements with an accuracy ratio of 90%.

  7. Towards A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for elec- trolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter approach in conjunction with an...

  8. Towards A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology For Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based On Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a model-driven methodology for predict- ing the remaining useful life of electrolytic capacitors. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter...

  9. Teachers' assessments of children aged eight predict life satisfaction in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honkanen, Meri; Meri, Honkanen; Hurtig, Tuula; Tuula, Hurtig; Taanila, Anja; Anja, Taanila; Moilanen, Irma; Irma, Moilanen; Koponen, Hannu; Hannu, Koponen; Mäki, Pirjo; Pirjo, Mäki; Veijola, Juha; Juha, Veijola; Puustjärvi, Anita; Anita, Puustjärvi; Ebeling, Hanna; Hanna, Ebeling; Koivumaa-Honkanen, Heli; Heli, Koivumaa-Honkanen

    2011-09-01

    The objective was to investigate how teachers' assessments of children predict life satisfaction in adolescence. This is a prospective cohort study on the population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (n = 8,959). Information was gathered from parents, teachers and adolescents using questionnaires at the age of 7, 8 and 15. Response rates were 80-90%. Emotional and behavioural problems were assessed with Rutter Children's Behavioural Questionnaires for teachers (RB2) and parents (RA2) during the first grade at age 8. At adolescence, self-reported life satisfaction was measured with a question including five response alternatives. According to teachers' assessments, 13.9% of the children had high emotional or behavioural problems (RB2 ≥9). These assessments predicted life dissatisfaction in adolescence (OR(crude) = 1.77; 95% CI 1.43-2.20) in several models including also health behaviour and use of psychotropic medicine. However, introducing all the significant variables in the same model, RB2 lost its significance (OR = 1.28; 0.96-1.70), but good school achievement assessed by teachers was still a significant predictor. Life satisfaction in adolescence was associated with a variety of favourable concurrent factors. In conclusion teachers' assessments of children during the first school year predicted life satisfaction in adolescence. In mental health promotion, teachers' early assessments should be utilized for the benefit of children.

  10. Methodological Issues in Predicting Pediatric Epilepsy Surgery Candidates Through Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Kevin Bretonnel; Glass, Benjamin; Greiner, Hansel M; Holland-Bouley, Katherine; Standridge, Shannon; Arya, Ravindra; Faist, Robert; Morita, Diego; Mangano, Francesco; Connolly, Brian; Glauser, Tracy; Pestian, John

    2016-01-01

    We describe the development and evaluation of a system that uses machine learning and natural language processing techniques to identify potential candidates for surgical intervention for drug-resistant pediatric epilepsy. The data are comprised of free-text clinical notes extracted from the electronic health record (EHR). Both known clinical outcomes from the EHR and manual chart annotations provide gold standards for the patient's status. The following hypotheses are then tested: 1) machine learning methods can identify epilepsy surgery candidates as well as physicians do and 2) machine learning methods can identify candidates earlier than physicians do. These hypotheses are tested by systematically evaluating the effects of the data source, amount of training data, class balance, classification algorithm, and feature set on classifier performance. The results support both hypotheses, with F-measures ranging from 0.71 to 0.82. The feature set, classification algorithm, amount of training data, class balance, and gold standard all significantly affected classification performance. It was further observed that classification performance was better than the highest agreement between two annotators, even at one year before documented surgery referral. The results demonstrate that such machine learning methods can contribute to predicting pediatric epilepsy surgery candidates and reducing lag time to surgery referral.

  11. Predictive Models for Different Roughness Parameters During Machining Process of Peek Composites Using Response Surface Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mata-Cabrera Francisco

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Polyetheretherketone (PEEK composite belongs to a group of high performance thermoplastic polymers and is widely used in structural components. To improve the mechanical and tribological properties, short fibers are added as reinforcement to the material. Due to its functional properties and potential applications, it’s impor- tant to investigate the machinability of non-reinforced PEEK (PEEK, PEEK rein- forced with 30% of carbon fibers (PEEK CF30, and reinforced PEEK with 30% glass fibers (PEEK GF30 to determine the optimal conditions for the manufacture of the parts. The present study establishes the relationship between the cutting con- ditions (cutting speed and feed rate and the roughness (Ra , Rt , Rq , Rp , by develop- ing second order mathematical models. The experiments were planned as per full factorial design of experiments and an analysis of variance has been performed to check the adequacy of the models. These state the adequacy of the derived models to obtain predictions for roughness parameters within ranges of parameters that have been investigated during the experiments. The experimental results show that the most influence of the cutting parameters is the feed rate, furthermore, proved that glass fiber reinforcements produce a worse machinability.

  12. Systematic methodology and property prediction of fatty systems for process design/analysis in the oil and fat industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. A. Diaz-Tovar

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available A systematic model based methodology has been developed and its application highlighted through the solvent recovery section of a soybean oil extraction process, with emphasis on the effect of design variables on the process performance. First, the most representative compounds present in the vegetable oil were defined. Basic and critical properties were then computed by means of appropriate property prediction software. Temperature dependant properties were modeled using and extending available correlations. The process model was developed through the PRO II commercial simulator and validated by matching the steady state simulation results with available plant data. The validated process model was then used to optimize the performance of the process by manipulating a selected set of design variables. The optimization results indicated that the process was already within the optimum zone; however, improvements in the amount of the hexane recovered were possible.

  13. A General Design Methodology for Synchronous Early-Completion-Prediction Adders in Nano-CMOS DSP Architectures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Olivieri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Synchronous early-completion-prediction adders (ECPAs are used for high clock rate and high-precision DSP datapaths, as they allow a dominant amount of single-cycle operations even if the worst-case carry propagation delay is longer than the clock period. Previous works have also demonstrated ECPA advantages for average leakage reduction and NBTI effects reduction in nanoscale CMOS technologies. This paper illustrates a general systematic methodology to design ECPA units, targeting nanoscale CMOS technologies, which is not available in the current literature yet. The method is fully compatible with standard VLSI macrocell design tools and standard adder structures and includes automatic definition of critical test patterns for postlayout verification. A design example is included, reporting speed and power data superior to previous works.

  14. Methodologically sound: Evaluating the psychometric approach to the assessment of human life history [reply to Copping, Campbell, and Muncer, 2014].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueredo, Aurelio José; Cabeza de Baca, Tomás; Black, Candace Jasmine; García, Rafael Antonio; Fernandes, Heitor Barcellos Ferreira; Wolf, Pedro Sofio Abril; Woodley of Menie, Michael Anthony

    2015-04-06

    Copping, Campbell, and Muncer (2014) have recently published an article critical of the psychometric approach to the assessment of life history (LH) strategy. Their purported goal was testing for the convergent validation and examining the psychometric structure of the High-K Strategy Scale (HKSS). As much of the literature on the psychometrics of human LH during the past decade or so has emanated from our research laboratory and those of close collaborators, we have prepared this detailed response. Our response is organized into four main sections: (1) A review of psychometric methods for the assessment of human LH strategy, expounding upon the essence of our approach; (2) our theoretical/conceptual concerns regarding the critique, addressing the broader issues raised by the critique regarding the latent and hierarchical structure of LH strategy; (3) our statistical/methodological concerns regarding the critique, examining the validity and persuasiveness of the empirical case made specifically against the HKSS; and (4) our recommendations for future research that we think might be helpful in closing the gap between the psychometric and biometric approaches to measurement in this area. Clearly stating our theoretical positions, describing our existing body of work, and acknowledging their limitations should assist future researchers in planning and implementing more informed and prudent empirical research that will synthesize the psychometric approach to the assessment of LH strategy with complementary methods.

  15. Methodologically Sound: Evaluating the Psychometric Approach to the Assessment of Human Life History [Reply to Copping, Campbell, and Muncer, 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurelio José Figueredo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Copping, Campbell, and Muncer (2014 have recently published an article critical of the psychometric approach to the assessment of life history (LH strategy. Their purported goal was testing for the convergent validation and examining the psychometric structure of the High-K Strategy Scale (HKSS. As much of the literature on the psychometrics of human LH during the past decade or so has emanated from our research laboratory and those of close collaborators, we have prepared this detailed response. Our response is organized into four main sections: (1 A review of psychometric methods for the assessment of human LH strategy, expounding upon the essence of our approach; (2 our theoretical/conceptual concerns regarding the critique, addressing the broader issues raised by the critique regarding the latent and hierarchical structure of LH strategy; (3 our statistical/methodological concerns regarding the critique, examining the validity and persuasiveness of the empirical case made specifically against the HKSS; and (4 our recommendations for future research that we think might be helpful in closing the gap between the psychometric and biometric approaches to measurement in this area. Clearly stating our theoretical positions, describing our existing body of work, and acknowledging their limitations should assist future researchers in planning and implementing more informed and prudent empirical research that will synthesize the psychometric approach to the assessment of LH strategy with complementary methods.

  16. SHM-Based Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Bridges Based on FE Model Updating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Young-Joo; Cho, Soojin

    2016-03-02

    Fatigue life prediction for a bridge should be based on the current condition of the bridge, and various sources of uncertainty, such as material properties, anticipated vehicle loads and environmental conditions, make the prediction very challenging. This paper presents a new approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction for bridges using finite element (FE) model updating based on structural health monitoring (SHM) data. Recently, various types of SHM systems have been used to monitor and evaluate the long-term structural performance of bridges. For example, SHM data can be used to estimate the degradation of an in-service bridge, which makes it possible to update the initial FE model. The proposed method consists of three steps: (1) identifying the modal properties of a bridge, such as mode shapes and natural frequencies, based on the ambient vibration under passing vehicles; (2) updating the structural parameters of an initial FE model using the identified modal properties; and (3) predicting the probabilistic fatigue life using the updated FE model. The proposed method is demonstrated by application to a numerical model of a bridge, and the impact of FE model updating on the bridge fatigue life is discussed.

  17. Pre-transplant quality of life does not predict survival after lung transplantation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, Karin M.; TenVergert, Elisabeth M.; Verschuuren, Erik A. M.; Erasmus, Michiel E.; van der Bij, Wim

    2008-01-01

    Background: Currently, the goal of lung transplantation is not only to improve survival but also includes' improvement of health-related quality of life (HRQL). Limited knowledge is available about the value of HRQL before lung transplantation with regard to predicting survival after lung transplant

  18. A Simple Fatigue Life Prediction Algorithm Using the Modified NASGRO Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A simple fatigue life prediction algorithm using the modified NASGRO equation is proposed in this paper. The NASGRO equation is modified by introducing the concept of intrinsic effective threshold stress intensity factor (SIF range ΔKeffth. One advantage of the proposed method is that the complex growth behavior analysis of small cracks can be avoided, and then the fatigue life can be calculated by directly integrating the crack growth model from the initial defect size to the critical crack size. The fatigue limit and the intrinsic effective threshold SIF range ΔKeffth are used to calculate the initial defect size or initial flaw size. The value of ΔKeffth is determined by extrapolating the crack propagation rate curves. Instead of using the fatigue limit determined by the fatigue strength at the specific fatigue life, the fatigue limit is selected based on the horizontal tendency of the S-N curve. The calculated fatigue lives are compared to the experimental data of two different alloys. The predicted S-N curves agree with the test data well. Besides, the prediction results are compared with that calculated using the FASTRAN code. Results indicate that the proposed life prediction algorithm is simple and efficient.

  19. The Level of Quality of Work Life to Predict Work Alienation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdem, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    The current research aims to determine the level of elementary school teachers' quality of work life (QWL) to predict work alienation. The study was designed using the relational survey model. The research population consisted of 1096 teachers employed at 25 elementary schools within the city of Van in the academic year 2010- 2011, and 346…

  20. Illness cognitions in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: Predicting quality of life outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Scharloo (Margreet); R.J.B. de Jong; T.P.M. Langeveld (ton); E. van Velzen-Verkaik (Els); M.M. den Doorn-op den Akker (Margreet); A.A. Kaptein (Adrian)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractGoals of work: This paper presents an observational study of the longitudinal effects of cancer treatment on quality of life (QoL) in patients treated for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), and evaluated the contribution of patients' baseline illness cognitions to the predict

  1. The Roles of Life Satisfaction, Teaching Efficacy, and Self-Esteem in Predicting Teachers' Job Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çevik, Gülsen Büyüksahin

    2017-01-01

    The current research aims to find out the extent to which high school teachers' life satisfaction, teaching efficacy, and self-esteem predict their job satisfaction. Research participants included a total of 358 teachers (age = 38.82; Ss = 6.73; range, 22-58), 222 males (62%) and 136 females (38%), employed in 21 public high schools in the city…

  2. Predicting trajectories of offending over the life course : findings from a Dutch conviction cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bersani, B.; Nieuwbeerta, P.; Laub, J.H.

    2009-01-01

    Distinguishing trajectories of criminal offending over the life course, especially the prediction of high-rate offenders, has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Motivated by a recent study by Sampson and Laub (2003), this study uses longitudinal data on conviction histories f

  3. The Role of Life Satisfaction and Parenting Styles in Predicting Delinquent Behaviors among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onder, Fulya Cenkseven; Yilmaz, Yasin

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine whether the parenting styles and life satisfaction predict delinquent behaviors frequently or not. Firstly the data were collected from 471 girls and 410 boys, a total of 881 high school students. Then the research was carried out with 502 students showing low (n = 262, 52.2%) and high level of delinquent…

  4. Life Prediction of Large Lithium-Ion Battery Packs with Active and Passive Balancing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Ying [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Smith, Kandler A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zane, Regan [Utah State University; Anderson, Dyche [Ford Motor Company

    2017-07-03

    Lithium-ion battery packs take a major part of large-scale stationary energy storage systems. One challenge in reducing battery pack cost is to reduce pack size without compromising pack service performance and lifespan. Prognostic life model can be a powerful tool to handle the state of health (SOH) estimate and enable active life balancing strategy to reduce cell imbalance and extend pack life. This work proposed a life model using both empirical and physical-based approaches. The life model described the compounding effect of different degradations on the entire cell with an empirical model. Then its lower-level submodels considered the complex physical links between testing statistics (state of charge level, C-rate level, duty cycles, etc.) and the degradation reaction rates with respect to specific aging mechanisms. The hybrid approach made the life model generic, robust and stable regardless of battery chemistry and application usage. The model was validated with a custom pack with both passive and active balancing systems implemented, which created four different aging paths in the pack. The life model successfully captured the aging trajectories of all four paths. The life model prediction errors on capacity fade and resistance growth were within +/-3% and +/-5% of the experiment measurements.

  5. Reliability-based service life prediction of existing concrete structures under marine environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴灵杰; 周拥军; 寇新建; 蒋萌

    2015-01-01

    Chloride-induced corrosion of the reinforcement is considered as one of the major mechanisms resulting in the reduction of structural resistance of reinforced concrete structural elements located in marine and other aggressive environments. A study of reinforced concrete structures located at the Fangcheng dock in the Beibu Gulf port, China, was present. The result from field survey indicates that the concrete cover depth and chloride diffusion coefficient fit best normal distribution and lognormal distribution, respectively. The service life of structure is about 55 a, while initiation time is 45 a. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the most influential factor of the structure service life prediction is concrete cover, followed by diffusion coefficient, diffusion decay index, critical chloride concentration, surface chloride concentration, current density and localized pitting corrosion. Finally, the effects of diffusion decay index and critical chloride concentration on structure service life prediction are discussed.

  6. An Analytical Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Fracture Mechanics and Crack Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsø, Jan Behrend; Agerskov, Henning

    1996-01-01

    Fatigue in steel structures subjected to stochastic loading is studied. Of special interest is the problem of fatigue damage accumulation and in this connection, a comparison between experimental results and results obtained using fracture mechanics. Fatigue test results obtained for welded plate...... test specimens are compared with fatigue life predictions using a fracture mechanics approach. In the calculation of the fatigue life, the influence of the welding residual stresses and crack closure on the fatigue crack growth is considered. A description of the crack closure model for analytical...... of the analytical fatigue lives. Both the analytical and experimental results obtained show that the Miner rule may give quite unconservative predictions of the fatigue life for the types of stochastic loading studied....

  7. Predicting life satisfaction in Angolan elderly: The moderating effect of gender

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A considerable amount of research has been done to explain life satisfaction in the elderly, and there is growing empirical evidence on the best predictors of life satisfaction. When studying elderly's lifesatisfaction and its predictors, gender differences have been found in several studies, including significant interactions with widowhood, for example. In this context, the present study aims were: (1 to test for the gender invariance in a life satisfaction measure; (2 to predict life satisfaction using several variables related to the aging process; and (3 to test the potential moderator effects due to gender in this prediction. Participants were 1003 Angolan elderly. Several multi-group (men vs. women MIMIC structural models were tested. First, results showed that there is gender invariance for the measurement of life satisfaction. Second, results found no moderation effects on key variables of the aging process. In other words, the estimated effects of psychosocial variables on life satisfaction remain the same for both genders. The discussion relates these results to the existing literature and posits the contributions of the study.

  8. Geospatial Predictive Modelling for Climate Mapping of Selected Severe Weather Phenomena Over Poland: A Methodological Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walawender, Ewelina; Walawender, Jakub P.; Ustrnul, Zbigniew

    2017-02-01

    The main purpose of the study is to introduce methods for mapping the spatial distribution of the occurrence of selected atmospheric phenomena (thunderstorms, fog, glaze and rime) over Poland from 1966 to 2010 (45 years). Limited in situ observations as well the discontinuous and location-dependent nature of these phenomena make traditional interpolation inappropriate. Spatially continuous maps were created with the use of geospatial predictive modelling techniques. For each given phenomenon, an algorithm identifying its favourable meteorological and environmental conditions was created on the basis of observations recorded at 61 weather stations in Poland. Annual frequency maps presenting the probability of a day with a thunderstorm, fog, glaze or rime were created with the use of a modelled, gridded dataset by implementing predefined algorithms. Relevant explanatory variables were derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and downscaled with the use of a Regional Climate Model. The resulting maps of favourable meteorological conditions were found to be valuable and representative on the country scale but at different correlation ( r) strength against in situ data (from r = 0.84 for thunderstorms to r = 0.15 for fog). A weak correlation between gridded estimates of fog occurrence and observations data indicated the very local nature of this phenomenon. For this reason, additional environmental predictors of fog occurrence were also examined. Topographic parameters derived from the SRTM elevation model and reclassified CORINE Land Cover data were used as the external, explanatory variables for the multiple linear regression kriging used to obtain the final map. The regression model explained 89 % of annual frequency of fog variability in the study area. Regression residuals were interpolated via simple kriging.

  9. Remote Sensing-based Methodologies for Snow Model Adjustments in Operational Streamflow Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, S.; Miller, W. P.; Bernard, B.; Stokes, M.; Oaida, C. M.; Painter, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    Water management agencies rely on hydrologic forecasts issued by operational agencies such as NOAA's Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC). The CBRFC has partnered with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under funding from NASA to incorporate research-oriented, remotely-sensed snow data into CBRFC operations and to improve the accuracy of CBRFC forecasts. The partnership has yielded valuable analysis of snow surface albedo as represented in JPL's MODIS Dust Radiative Forcing in Snow (MODDRFS) data, across the CBRFC's area of responsibility. When dust layers within a snowpack emerge, reducing the snow surface albedo, the snowmelt rate may accelerate. The CBRFC operational snow model (SNOW17) is a temperature-index model that lacks explicit representation of snowpack surface albedo. CBRFC forecasters monitor MODDRFS data for emerging dust layers and may manually adjust SNOW17 melt rates. A technique was needed for efficient and objective incorporation of the MODDRFS data into SNOW17. Initial development focused in Colorado, where dust-on-snow events frequently occur. CBRFC forecasters used retrospective JPL-CBRFC analysis and developed a quantitative relationship between MODDRFS data and mean areal temperature (MAT) data. The relationship was used to generate adjusted, MODDRFS-informed input for SNOW17. Impacts of the MODDRFS-SNOW17 MAT adjustment method on snowmelt-driven streamflow prediction varied spatially and with characteristics of the dust deposition events. The largest improvements occurred in southwestern Colorado, in years with intense dust deposition events. Application of the method in other regions of Colorado and in "low dust" years resulted in minimal impact. The MODDRFS-SNOW17 MAT technique will be implemented in CBRFC operations in late 2015, prior to spring 2016 runoff. Collaborative investigation of remote sensing-based adjustment methods for the CBRFC operational hydrologic forecasting environment will continue over the next several years.

  10. Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction for Steels Based on Some Simple Approximations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Yao, Zhi-feng; Zhang, Zhong-ping

    2015-01-01

    The Roessle-Fatemi's hardness method (HM) and Muralidharan-Manson's modified universal slopes method (MUSM) were employed to determine the uniaxial fatigue properties of steels from easily obtained tensile properties. Both methods give good life predictions, while the Roessle-Fatemi's HM is somewhat better. Furthermore, for predicting multiaxial fatigue lives of steels in the absence of any fatigue data, the Li's modified Wang-Brown model (MWB) was used in combination with the HM method (MWB-HM) as well as the MUSM method (MWB-MUSM), respectively. Correlation between the yield strength and the Brinell hardness was also developed to estimate the multiaxial fatigue lives of steels based only on hardness and elasticity modulus. It is shown that multiaxial fatigue lives were predicted fairly well by all the methods, and the MWB-MUSM method is slightly more accurate. In addition, a computer-based procedure for multiaxial fatigue life assessment incorporating MWB-MUSM approach was proposed and implemented to predict the fatigue life of an intermediate compressor casing. The predicted results are promising.

  11. Distance saturation product predicts health–related quality of life among sarcoidosis patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bourbonnais Julie M

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sarcoidosis is a chronic disease with different phenotypic manifestations. Health-related quality of life is an important aspect in sarcoidosis, yet difficult to measure. The objective of this study was to identify clinical markers predictive of poor quality of life in sarcoidosis patients that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention. Methods We assessed the quality of life of 162 patients with confirmed sarcoidosis in a prospective, cross-sectional study using the Sarcoidosis Health Questionnaire (SHQ and Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36. We evaluated the validity of these questionnaires and sought to identify variables that would best explain the performance scores of the patients. Results On multivariate regression analyses, the very best composite model to predict total scores from both surveys was a model containing the distance-saturation product and Borg Dyspnea Scale score at the end of a 6-min walk test. This model could better predict SF-36 scores (R2 = 0.33 than SHQ scores (R2 = 0.24. Substitution of distanced walked in 6 min for the distance-saturation product in this model resulted in a lesser ability to predict both scores (R2 = 0.26 for SF-36; R2 = 0.22 for SHQ. Conclusions Both the SHQ and SF-36 surveys are valuable tools in the assessment of health-related quality of life in sarcoidosis patients. The best model to predict quality of life among these patients, as determined by regression analyses, included the distance-saturation product and Borg score after the 6-min walk test. Both variables represent easily obtainable clinical parameters that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention.

  12. Distance saturation product predicts health-related quality of life among sarcoidosis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbonnais, Julie M; Malaisamy, Subramanian; Dalal, Bhavinkumar D; Samarakoon, Priyan C; Parikh, Swapna R; Samavati, Lobelia

    2012-06-13

    Sarcoidosis is a chronic disease with different phenotypic manifestations. Health-related quality of life is an important aspect in sarcoidosis, yet difficult to measure. The objective of this study was to identify clinical markers predictive of poor quality of life in sarcoidosis patients that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention. We assessed the quality of life of 162 patients with confirmed sarcoidosis in a prospective, cross-sectional study using the Sarcoidosis Health Questionnaire (SHQ) and Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36). We evaluated the validity of these questionnaires and sought to identify variables that would best explain the performance scores of the patients. On multivariate regression analyses, the very best composite model to predict total scores from both surveys was a model containing the distance-saturation product and Borg Dyspnea Scale score at the end of a 6-min walk test. This model could better predict SF-36 scores (R² = 0.33) than SHQ scores (R² = 0.24). Substitution of distanced walked in 6 min for the distance-saturation product in this model resulted in a lesser ability to predict both scores (R² = 0.26 for SF-36; R² = 0.22 for SHQ). Both the SHQ and SF-36 surveys are valuable tools in the assessment of health-related quality of life in sarcoidosis patients. The best model to predict quality of life among these patients, as determined by regression analyses, included the distance-saturation product and Borg score after the 6-min walk test. Both variables represent easily obtainable clinical parameters that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention.

  13. Fatigue life prediction of Ni-base thermal solar receiver tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartrott, Philipp von; Schlesinger, Michael [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Uhlig, Ralf; Jedamski, Jens [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Stuttgart (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    Solar receivers for tower type Solar Thermal Power Plants are subjected to complex thermo-mechanical loads including fast and severe thermo-mechanical cycles. The material temperatures can reach more than 800 C and fall to room temperature very quickly. In order to predict the fatigue life of a receiver design, receiver tubes made of Alloy 625 with a wall thickness of 0.5 mm were tested in isothermal and thermo-cyclic experiments. The number of cycles to failure was in the range of 100 to 100,000. A thermo-mechanical fatigue life prediction model was set up. The model is based on the cyclic deformation of the material and the damage caused by the growth of fatigue micro cracks. The model reasonably predicts the experimental results. (orig.)

  14. Fatigue Life Prediction of Metallic Materials Based on the Combined Nonlinear Ultrasonic Parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuhua; Li, Xinxin; Wu, Zhenyong; Huang, Zhenfeng; Mao, Hanling

    2017-07-01

    The fatigue life prediction of metallic materials is always a tough problem that needs to be solved in the mechanical engineering field because it is very important for the secure service of mechanical components. In this paper, a combined nonlinear ultrasonic parameter based on the collinear wave mixing technique is applied for fatigue life prediction of a metallic material. Sweep experiments are first conducted to explore the influence of driving frequency on the interaction of two driving signals and the fatigue damage of specimens, and the amplitudes of sidebands at the difference frequency and sum frequency are tracked when the driving frequency changes. Then, collinear wave mixing tests are carried out on a pair of cylindrically notched specimens with different fatigue damage to explore the relationship between the fatigue damage and the relative nonlinear parameters. The experimental results show when the fatigue degree is below 65% the relative nonlinear parameter increases quickly, and the growth rate is approximately 130%. If the fatigue degree is above 65%, the increase in the relative nonlinear parameter is slow, which has a close relationship with the microstructure evolution of specimens. A combined nonlinear ultrasonic parameter is proposed to highlight the relationship of the relative nonlinear parameter and fatigue degree of specimens; the fatigue life prediction model is built based on the relationship, and the prediction error is below 3%, which is below the prediction error based on the relative nonlinear parameters at the difference and sum frequencies. Therefore, the combined nonlinear ultrasonic parameter using the collinear wave mixing method can effectively estimate the fatigue degree of specimens, which provides a fast and convenient method for fatigue life prediction.

  15. Fatigue Life Prediction of Metallic Materials Based on the Combined Nonlinear Ultrasonic Parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuhua; Li, Xinxin; Wu, Zhenyong; Huang, Zhenfeng; Mao, Hanling

    2017-08-01

    The fatigue life prediction of metallic materials is always a tough problem that needs to be solved in the mechanical engineering field because it is very important for the secure service of mechanical components. In this paper, a combined nonlinear ultrasonic parameter based on the collinear wave mixing technique is applied for fatigue life prediction of a metallic material. Sweep experiments are first conducted to explore the influence of driving frequency on the interaction of two driving signals and the fatigue damage of specimens, and the amplitudes of sidebands at the difference frequency and sum frequency are tracked when the driving frequency changes. Then, collinear wave mixing tests are carried out on a pair of cylindrically notched specimens with different fatigue damage to explore the relationship between the fatigue damage and the relative nonlinear parameters. The experimental results show when the fatigue degree is below 65% the relative nonlinear parameter increases quickly, and the growth rate is approximately 130%. If the fatigue degree is above 65%, the increase in the relative nonlinear parameter is slow, which has a close relationship with the microstructure evolution of specimens. A combined nonlinear ultrasonic parameter is proposed to highlight the relationship of the relative nonlinear parameter and fatigue degree of specimens; the fatigue life prediction model is built based on the relationship, and the prediction error is below 3%, which is below the prediction error based on the relative nonlinear parameters at the difference and sum frequencies. Therefore, the combined nonlinear ultrasonic parameter using the collinear wave mixing method can effectively estimate the fatigue degree of specimens, which provides a fast and convenient method for fatigue life prediction.

  16. Prediction of the Service Life of a Reinforced Concrete Column under Chloride Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad K. Alkam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present investigation, service life of a reinforced concrete column exposed to chloride environment has been predicted. This study has been based on numerical simulation of chloride ion diffusion in a concrete column during its anticipated life span. The simulation process has included the concrete cover replacement whenever chloride ion concentration has reached the critical threshold value at the reinforcement surface. Repair scheduling of the concrete column under consideration has been discussed. Effects of the concrete cover thickness and the water cement ratio on the service life of the concrete column at hand have been presented. A new approach for arranging locations of reinforcement steel bars has been introduced. This approach is intended to prolong the service life of the concrete column under consideration against chloride induced corrosion.

  17. Fatigue Life Prediction of Horizontal Press Frame Based on Statistical Probability and Its Redesign

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WeiWei Zhang; XiaoSon Wang; Bo Yang; Shi-Jian Yuan

    2014-01-01

    Horizontal press as an important part of hydro-forming machine is used to output the horizontal force to keep the high internal pressure during tube hydro-forming. However, the horizontal press frame is usually mounted on the press bed and not pre-stressed. Meanwhile it will be subjected to the reaction force caused by liquid pressure. Stresses are concentrated severely on the assemble region due to deformation, and total fatigue life will decrease. In order to predict the total fatigue life of the frame, the simulations are used firstly to determine to stress concentration region, and then strain gauge measurements are carried out under different loads. Next, the methods of statistical probability are conducted to calculate the fatigue life based on long-term load history. Finally a structure with the considerable longer fatigue life is redesigned.

  18. An Analytical Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Fracture Mechanics and Crack Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsø, Jan Behrend; Agerskov, Henning

    1996-01-01

    Fatigue in steel structures subjected to stochastic loading is studied. Of special interest is the problem of fatigue damage accumulation and in this connection, a comparison between experimental results and results obtained using fracture mechanics. Fatigue test results obtained for welded plate...... test specimens are compared with fatigue life predictions using a fracture mechanics approach. In the calculation of the fatigue life, the influence of the welding residual stresses and crack closure on the fatigue crack growth is considered. A description of the crack closure model for analytical...... determination of the fatigue life is included. Furthermore, the results obtained in studies of the various parameters that have an influence on the fatigue life, are given. A very good agreement between experimental and analytical results is obtained, when the crack closure model is used in determination...

  19. A parametric physics based creep life prediction approach to gas turbine blade conceptual design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Marcus Edward Brockbank

    The required useful service lives of gas turbine components and parts are naturally one of the major design constraints limiting the gas turbine design space. For example, the required service life of a turbine blade limits the firing temperature in the combustor, which in turn limits the performance of the gas turbine. For a cooled turbine blade, it also determines the necessary cooling flow, which has a strong impact on the turbine efficiency. In most gas turbine design practices, the life prediction is only emphasized during or after the detailed design has been completed. Limited life prediction efforts have been made in the early design stages, but these efforts capture only a few of the necessary key factors, such as centrifugal stress. Furthermore, the early stage prediction methods are usually hard coded in the gas turbine system design tools and hidden from the system designer's view. The common failure mechanisms affecting the service life, such as creep, fatigue and oxidation, are highly sensitive to the material temperatures and/or stresses. Calculation of these temperatures and stresses requires that the geometry, material properties, and operating conditions be known; information not typically available in early stages of design. Even without awareness of the errors, the resulting inaccuracy in the life prediction may mislead the system designers when examining a design space which is bounded indirectly by the inaccurate required life constraints. Furthermore, because intensive creep lifing analysis is possible only towards the end of the design process, any errors or changes will cost the engine manufacturer significant money; money that could be saved if more comprehensive creep lifing predictions were possible in the early stages of design. A rapid, physics-based life prediction method could address this problem by enabling the system designer to investigate the design space more thoroughly and accurately. Although not meant as a final decision

  20. Physical activity predicts quality of life and happiness in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, Carol Ann; Toohey, Monica; Ferguson, Monika

    2016-01-01

    To examine the associations between physical activity, health-related quality of life and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. A total of 70 young people with cerebral palsy (45 males, 25 females; mean age 13 years 11 months, SD 2 years 0 month) took part in a cross-sectional, descriptive postal survey assessing physical activity (Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents), functional ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System), quality of life (Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0) and happiness (single Likert-scale item). Relationships between physical activity, quality of life and happiness were examined using backward stepwise linear regression. Physical activity significantly predicted physical quality of life (R(2 )= 0.64, β = 6.12, p = 0.02), social quality of life (R(2 )= 0.28, β = 9.27, p happiness (R(2 )= 0.08, β = 0.9, p = 0.04). Physical activity was not associated with emotional or school quality of life. This study found a positive association between physical activity, social and physical quality of life, and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. Findings underscore the potential benefits of physical activity for the wellbeing of young people with cerebral palsy, in addition to its well-recognised physical and health benefits. Physical activity is a key predictor of quality of life and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. Physical activity is widely recognised as having physical health benefits for young people with cerebral palsy; however, this study also highlights that it may have important benefits for wellbeing, quality of life and happiness. This emphasises the need for clinical services and intervention studies aimed specifically at increasing physical activity amongst children and adolescents with cerebral palsy.

  1. Shelf-life prediction of canned "nasi uduk" using accelerated shelf-life test (ASLT) - Arrhenius model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurniadi, Muhamad; Salam, Nur; Kusumaningrum, Annisa; Nursiwi, Asri; Angwar, Mukhamad; Susanto, Agus; Nurhikmat, Asep; Triwiyono, Frediansyah, Andri

    2017-01-01

    "Nasi Uduk" is one of the Indonesian traditional food made from rice, steamed with coconut milk and seasoning. For optimizing shelf-life, canned "nasi uduk" for military and disaster-response ration, was packed using cylindrical cans of 72,63 × 53,04 mm (Ø × h) in size. One of the important aspects on quality assessment of preserved product was its rancidity. The aim of this research was to determine shelf-life of canned "nasi uduk" using ASLT method of Arrhenius model. Storage temperatures set up at 35, 45 and 55°C for 35 days. Optimization of sterilization process was conducted to achieve the optimum conditions of sterilization. Target lethality value (Fo), microorganism total plate count (TPC) and rancidity levels (TBA) were used as parameters in this research. The results showed that the optimum sterilization conditions were 121 °C for 20 minutes, TPC value of 9.5 × 101 CFU/ml and Fo value 4.14 minutes. Predicted shelf-life of canned "nasi uduk" was 9.6 months which was average TBA value still bellow of the critical point.

  2. Minimizing effects of methodological decisions on interpretation and prediction in species distribution studies: An example with background selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Talbert, Marian; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Aldridge, Cameron; Brown, Cynthia; Kumar, Sunil; Manier, Daniel; Talbert, Colin; Holcombe, Tracy R.

    2017-01-01

    Evaluating the conditions where a species can persist is an important question in ecology both to understand tolerances of organisms and to predict distributions across landscapes. Presence data combined with background or pseudo-absence locations are commonly used with species distribution modeling to develop these relationships. However, there is not a standard method to generate background or pseudo-absence locations, and method choice affects model outcomes. We evaluated combinations of both model algorithms (simple and complex generalized linear models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, Maxent, boosted regression trees, and random forest) and background methods (random, minimum convex polygon, and continuous and binary kernel density estimator (KDE)) to assess the sensitivity of model outcomes to choices made. We evaluated six questions related to model results, including five beyond the common comparison of model accuracy assessment metrics (biological interpretability of response curves, cross-validation robustness, independent data accuracy and robustness, and prediction consistency). For our case study with cheatgrass in the western US, random forest was least sensitive to background choice and the binary KDE method was least sensitive to model algorithm choice. While this outcome may not hold for other locations or species, the methods we used can be implemented to help determine appropriate methodologies for particular research questions.

  3. A response surface methodology and desirability approach for predictive modeling and optimization of cutting temperature in machining hardened steel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashok Kumar Sahoo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an experimental investigation on cutting temperature during hard turning of EN 24 steel (50 HRC using TiN coated carbide insert under dry environment. The prediction model is developed using response surface methodology and optimization of process parameter is performed by desirability approach. A stiff rise in cutting temperature is noticed when feed and cutting speed are elevated. The effect of depth of cut on cutting temperature is not that much significant compared with cutting speed and feed as observed from main effects plot. The response surface second order model presented high correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.992 explaining 99.2 % of the variability in the cutting temperature which indicates the goodness of fit for the model to the actual data and high statistical significance of the model. The experimental and predicted values are very close to each other. The calculated error for cutting temperature lies between 1.88-3.19 % during confirmation trial. Therefore, the developed second order model correlates the relationship of the cutting temperature with the process parameters with good degree of approximation. The optimal combination for process parameter is depth of cut at 0.2mm, feed of 0.1597 mm/rev and cutting speed of 70m/min. Based on these combination, the value of cutting temperature is 302.950C whose desirability is one.

  4. Predictive Modeling for End-of-Life Pain Outcome using Electronic Health Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodhi, Muhammad K.; Stifter, Janet; Yao, Yingwei; Ansari, Rashid; Kee-nan, Gail M.; Wilkie, Diana J.; Khokhar, Ashfaq A.

    2016-01-01

    Electronic health record (EHR) systems are being widely used in the healthcare industry nowadays, mostly for monitoring the progress of the patients. EHR data analysis has become a big data problem as data is growing rapidly. Using a nursing EHR system, we built predictive models for determining what factors influence pain in end-of-life (EOL) patients. Utilizing different modeling techniques, we developed coarse-grained and fine-grained models to predict patient pain outcomes. The coarse-grained models help predict the outcome at the end of each hospitalization, whereas fine-grained models help predict the outcome at the end of each shift, thus providing a trajectory of predicted outcomes over the entire hospitalization. These models can help in determining effective treatments for individuals and groups of patients and support standardization of care where appropriate. Using these models may also lower the cost and increase the quality of end-of-life care. Results from these techniques show significantly accurate predictions. PMID:27500287

  5. Lithium-ion battery remaining useful life prediction based on grey support vector machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaogang Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, an improved grey prediction model is proposed to address low-accuracy prediction issue of grey forecasting model. The first step is using a trigonometric function to transform the original data sequence to smooth the data, which is called smoothness of grey prediction model, and then a grey support vector machine model by integrating the improved grey model with support vector machine is introduced. At the initial stage of the model, trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation can be used to preprocess the data, which enhances the smoothness of the data and reduces the associated randomness. In addition, support vector machine is implemented to establish a prediction model for the pre-processed data and select the optimal model parameters via genetic algorithms. Finally, the data are restored through the ‘regressive generate’ operation to obtain the forecasting data. To prove that the grey support vector machine model is superior to the other models, the battery life data from the Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering are selected, and the presented model is used to predict the remaining useful life of the battery. The predicted result is compared to that of grey model and support vector machines. For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this article quantifies the root mean square errors for these three different models in the case of different ratio of training samples and prediction samples. The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine model is optimal, and the corresponding root mean square error is only 3.18%.

  6. Renal parenchymal histopathology predicts life-threatening chronic kidney disease as a result of radical nephrectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sejima, Takehiro; Honda, Masashi; Takenaka, Atsushi

    2015-01-01

    The preoperative prediction of post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency plays an important role in the decision-making process regarding renal surgery options. Furthermore, the prediction of both postoperative renal insufficiency and postoperative cardiovascular disease occurrence, which is suggested to be an adverse consequence caused by renal insufficiency, contributes to the preoperative policy decision as well as the precise informed consent for a renal cell carcinoma patient. Preoperative nomograms for the prediction of post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency, calculated using patient backgrounds, are advocated. The use of these nomograms together with other types of nomograms predicting oncological outcome is beneficial. Post-radical nephrectomy attending physicians can predict renal insufficiency based on the normal renal parenchymal pathology in addition to preoperative patient characteristics. It is suggested that a high level of global glomerulosclerosis in nephrectomized normal renal parenchyma is closely associated with severe renal insufficiency. Some studies showed that post-radical nephrectomy severe renal insufficiency might have an association with increased mortality as a result of cardiovascular disease. Therefore, such pathophysiology should be recognized as life-threatening, surgically-related chronic kidney disease. On the contrary, the investigation of the prediction of mild post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency, which is not related to adverse consequences in the postoperative long-term period, is also promising because the prediction of mild renal insufficiency might be the basis for the substitution of radical nephrectomy for nephron-sparing surgery in technically difficult or compromised cases. The deterioration of quality of life caused by post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency should be investigated in conjunction with life-threatening matters.

  7. Creep Rupture Life Prediction Based on Analysis of Large Creep Deformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YE Wenming

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A creep rupture life prediction method for high temperature component was proposed. The method was based on a true stress-strain elastoplastic creep constitutive model and the large deformation finite element analysis method. This method firstly used the high-temperature tensile stress-strain curve expressed by true stress and strain and the creep curve to build materials' elastoplastic and creep constitutive model respectively, then used the large deformation finite element method to calculate the deformation response of high temperature component under a given load curve, finally the creep rupture life was determined according to the change trend of the responsive curve.The method was verified by durable test of TC11 titanium alloy notched specimens under 500 ℃, and was compared with the three creep rupture life prediction methods based on the small deformation analysis. Results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the high temperature creep response and long-term life of TC11 notched specimens, and the accuracy is better than that of the methods based on the average effective stress of notch ligament, the bone point stress and the fracture strain of the key point, which are all based on small deformation finite element analysis.

  8. Methodologies for investigating drug metabolism at the early drug discovery stage: prediction of hepatic drug clearance and P450 contribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emoto, Chie; Murayama, Norie; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin; Yamazaki, Hiroshi

    2010-10-01

    The attrition rate in drug development is being reduced by continuous advances in science and technology introduced by various academic institutions and pharmaceutical companies. This has been certainly noticeable in reducing the frequency with which unfavorable absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination (ADME) characteristics of any candidate drug causes failure in clinical development. Nonetheless, it is important that the objectives in reducing attrition during later stages of development are matched by information generated in the earliest stage of discovery. In this review, we summarize the methodologies employed during the early stages of drug discovery and discuss new findings in the areas of (1) drug metabolism enzymes, (2) the contribution of cytochrome P450 enzymes (P450, CYP) to hepatic metabolism, (3) prediction of hepatic intrinsic clearance, (4) reaction phenotyping, and (5) the metabolic differences between highly homologous enzymes such as CYP3A4 and CYP3A5. The total contribution of P450 and UDP-glucuronosyltransferases to drug metabolism is reported to be more than 80%; therefore, glucuronidation is increasingly recognized as an important clearance pathway in addition to that of P450 enzymes. When estimating the contribution of P450, interpreting the results of inhibition studies using a single P450 inhibitor can lead to false conclusions. For instance, 1-aminobenzotriazole and SKF-525A have a varying range of IC(50) values for inhibition of drug exidation-reaction by different CYP450 enzymes. There are disparities between methodologies at early stage drug discovery and late stage development. For example, although the drug depletion approach for the prediction of hepatic intrinsic clearance may not be desirable at late stages of development, it is suitable at the early drug discovery stage since kinetic characterization and measurement of specific drug metabolites are not required. Data from protein binding assays in plasma and

  9. Life Predicted in a Probabilistic Design Space for Brittle Materials With Transient Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Palfi, Tamas; Reh, Stefan

    2005-01-01

    Analytical techniques have progressively become more sophisticated, and now we can consider the probabilistic nature of the entire space of random input variables on the lifetime reliability of brittle structures. This was demonstrated with NASA s CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code combined with the commercially available ANSYS/Probabilistic Design System (ANSYS/PDS), a probabilistic analysis tool that is an integral part of the ANSYS finite-element analysis program. ANSYS/PDS allows probabilistic loads, component geometry, and material properties to be considered in the finite-element analysis. CARES/Life predicts the time dependent probability of failure of brittle material structures under generalized thermomechanical loading--such as that found in a turbine engine hot-section. Glenn researchers coupled ANSYS/PDS with CARES/Life to assess the effects of the stochastic variables of component geometry, loading, and material properties on the predicted life of the component for fully transient thermomechanical loading and cyclic loading.

  10. [Measured and Predicted Aquatic Life Criteria and Risk Assessment of Chromium (VI) in Liaohe River].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-nan; Yan, Zhen-guang; Liu, Zheng-tao; Zhang, Cong; Wang, Wei-li

    2015-07-01

    In this study, toxicity data of aquatic species in Liaohe River for heavy metal chromium (VI) was collected and selected. The aquatic life criteria for chromium (VI) in Liaohe River was derived based on these toxicity data. Moreover, water samples of 25 sites in Liaohe River were collected, and the concentrations of chromium (VI) in these samples were analyzed. Finally, ecological risk assessment of chromium (VI) in Liaohe River was performed. Moreover, interspecies correlation estimation method (ICE) established by US EPA was used to predict the acute toxicity of species in Liaohe River, and aquatic life criteria based on predicted toxicity data was derived. The results showed that: the measured CMC (criteria maximum concentration), measured CCC (criteria continuous concentration) and the predicted CMC were 17. 73, 12. 15 and 13. 97 µg . L -1, respectively. Therefore, the ICE method could be used to predict the aquatic life criteria, because the predicted criteria value was very similar to the measured criteria value. Analysis of chromium (V) showed that the chromium (VI) concentrations of the 25 sites in Liaohe River were all below Class I or Class II water quality standards (GB 3838-2002), and the water quality was in good condition. However, for the potential risk of chromium (VI) exposure to the aquatic life of Liaohe River, the result of ecological risk assessment showed that chromium (V) concentrations in 7 sites exceeded the CCC in July, and chromium (VI) concentrations in 6 sites exceeded the CCC in December. Therefore, unacceptable effect on aquatic species caused by chromium (VI) exposure might have occurred in some sites of Liaohe River.

  11. Methodological Aspects of Subjective Life Expectancy: Effects of Culture-Specific Reporting Heterogeneity Among Older Adults in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunghee; Smith, Jacqui

    2016-05-01

    Subjective life expectancy (SLE) has been suggested as a predictor of mortality and mortality-related behaviors. Although critical for culturally diverse societies, these findings do not consider cross-cultural methodological comparability. Culture-specific reporting heterogeneity is a well-known phenomenon introducing biases, and research on this issue with SLE is not established. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined reporting heterogeneity in SLE focusing on item nonresponse, focal points, and reports over time for five ethnic-cultural groups: non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, non-Hispanic other races, English-interviewed Hispanics, and Spanish-interviewed Hispanics. On item nonresponse, Spanish-interviewed Hispanics said, "I don't know," to SLE significantly more than any other groups. Nearly half of the respondents chose 0, 50, or 100, making them focal points. However, the focal points differed: 50 for Whites, 100 for Blacks, and 0 for Spanish-interviewed Hispanics. The relationship of SLE measured at two time points was higher for Whites than minorities. Moreover, those who said "I don't know" to SLE showed higher subsequent mortality than those who gave an answer. SLE was not a significant mortality predictor for Hispanics. Overall, SLE is not free from culture-specific reporting heterogeneity. This warrants further research about its culture-relevant measurement mechanisms. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. The prediction technology study of fatigue life for key parts of a tracked vehicle's suspension system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hongyan; RUI Qiang; HE Xiaojun

    2007-01-01

    In allusion to fatigue life of a tracked vehicle torsion bar, a virtual prototype model of the tracked vehicle suspension system including a flexible torsion bar was built based on dynamic simulation software-ADAMS. Node force and stress results of the torsion bar from last step simu- lation were acquired; taking into account the material charac- teristics and influential factors, fatigue life of the flexible body. of the torsion bar was predicted. Engineering results can be acquired through the contrast of the result of virtual test and statistical fatigue.

  13. Does life satisfaction predict five-year mortality in community-living older adults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Mackenzie, Corey; Menec, Verena

    2015-01-01

    Depression and depressive symptoms predict death, but it is less clear if more general measures of life satisfaction (LS) predict death. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if LS predicts mortality over a five-year period in community-living older adults; and (2) which aspects of LS predict death. 1751 adults over the age of 65 who were living in the community were sampled from a representative population sampling frame in 1991/1992 and followed five years later. Age, gender, and education were self-reported. An index of multimorbidity and the Older American Resource Survey measured health and functional status, and the Terrible-Delightful Scale assessed overall LS as well as satisfaction with: health, finances, family, friends, housing, recreation, self-esteem, religion, and transportation. Cox proportional hazards models examined the influence of LS on time to death. 417 participants died during the five-year study period. Overall LS and all aspects of LS except finances, religion, and self-esteem predicted death in unadjusted analyses. In fully adjusted analyses, LS with health, housing, and recreation predicted death. Other aspects of LS did not predict death after accounting for functional status and multimorbidity. LS predicted death, but certain aspects of LS are more strongly associated with death. The effect of LS is complex and may be mediated or confounded by health and functional status. It is important to consider different domains of LS when considering the impact of this important emotional indicator on mortality among older adults.

  14. A Mathematical Model for Predicting the Life of PEM Fuel Cell Membranes Subjected to Hydration Cycling

    CERN Document Server

    Burlatsky, S F; O'Neill, J; Atrazhev, V V; Varyukhin, A N; Dmitriev, D V; Erikhman, N S

    2013-01-01

    Under typical PEM fuel cell operating conditions, part of membrane electrode assembly is subjected to humidity cycling due to variation of inlet gas RH and/or flow rate. Cyclic membrane hydration/dehydration would cause cyclic swelling/shrinking of the unconstrained membrane. In a constrained membrane, it causes cyclic stress resulting in mechanical failure in the area adjacent to the gas inlet. A mathematical modeling framework for prediction of the lifetime of a PEM FC membrane subjected to hydration cycling is developed in this paper. The model predicts membrane lifetime as a function of RH cycling amplitude and membrane mechanical properties. The modeling framework consists of three model components: a fuel cell RH distribution model, a hydration/dehydration induced stress model that predicts stress distribution in the membrane, and a damage accrual model that predicts membrane life-time. Short descriptions of the model components along with overall framework are presented in the paper. The model was used...

  15. Predicting US Infants' and Toddlers' TV/Video Viewing Rates: Mothers' Cognitions and Structural Life Circumstances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaala, Sarah E; Hornik, Robert C

    2014-04-01

    There has been rising international concern over media use with children under two. As little is known about the factors associated with more or less viewing among very young children, this study examines maternal factors predictive of TV/video viewing rates among American infants and toddlers. Guided by the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction, this survey study examines relationships between children's rates of TV/video viewing and their mothers' structural life circumstances (e.g., number of children in the home; mother's screen use), and cognitions (e.g., attitudes; norms). Results suggest that mothers' structural circumstances and cognitions respectively contribute independent explanatory power to the prediction of children's TV/video viewing. Influence of structural circumstances is partially mediated through cognitions. Mothers' attitudes as well as their own TV/video viewing behavior were particularly predictive of children's viewing. Implications of these findings for international efforts to understand and reduce infant/toddler TV/video exposure are discussed.

  16. Wealth and happiness across the world: material prosperity predicts life evaluation, whereas psychosocial prosperity predicts positive feeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diener, Ed; Ng, Weiting; Harter, James; Arora, Raksha

    2010-07-01

    The Gallup World Poll, the first representative sample of planet Earth, was used to explore the reasons why happiness is associated with higher income, including the meeting of basic needs, fulfillment of psychological needs, increasing satisfaction with one's standard of living, and public goods. Across the globe, the association of log income with subjective well-being was linear but convex with raw income, indicating the declining marginal effects of income on subjective well-being. Income was a moderately strong predictor of life evaluation but a much weaker predictor of positive and negative feelings. Possessing luxury conveniences and satisfaction with standard of living were also strong predictors of life evaluation. Although the meeting of basic and psychological needs mediated the effects of income on life evaluation to some degree, the strongest mediation was provided by standard of living and ownership of conveniences. In contrast, feelings were most associated with the fulfillment of psychological needs: learning, autonomy, using one's skills, respect, and the ability to count on others in an emergency. Thus, two separate types of prosperity-economic and social psychological-best predict different types of well-being.

  17. Methodological Approach for the Sustainability Assessment of Development Cooperation Projects for Built Innovations Based on the SDGs and Life Cycle Thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie D. Maier

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a methodological approach for a sustainability assessment of development cooperation projects. Between the scientific disciplines there is no agreement on the term of “sustainability”. Whereas the definition of sustainability within the context of development cooperation frequently highlights the long-term success of an intervention, the United Nations herald the inclusion of social, economic and environmental aspects. This paper proposes to bridge this gap by providing an analytical framework that uses nine impact category groups based on thematic priorities of sustainable development derived from the Sustainable Development Goals. Additionally, the long-term effectiveness of a project is taken into consideration. These impact category groups comprise the analytical framework, which is investigated by the Life Cycle Assessment and an indicator-based analysis. These data are obtained through empirical social research and the LCA inventory. The underlying concept is based on life cycle thinking. Taking up a multi-cycle model this study establishes two life cycles: first, the project management life cycle; and, second, the life cycle of a project’s innovation. The innovation’s life cycle is identified to have the greatest impact on the target region and the local people and is consequently of primary interest. This methodological approach enables an ex-post sustainability assessment of a built innovation of a development cooperation project and is tested on a case study on Improved Cooking Stoves in Bangladesh.

  18. FATIGUE LIFE PREDICTION OF COMMERCIALLY PURE TITANIUM AFTER NITROGEN ION IMPLANTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurdin Ali

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of fatigue life has become an interesting issue in biomaterial engineering and design for reliability and quality purposes, particularly for biometallic material with modified surfaces. Commercially pure titanium (Cp-Ti implanted with nitrogen ions is a potential metallic biomaterial of the future. The effect of nitrogen ion implantation on fatigue behavior of Cp-Ti was investigated by means of axial loading conditions. The as-received and nitrogen-ion implanted specimens with the energy of 100 keV and dose of 2 × 1017 ions cm-2, were used to determine the fatigue properties and to predict the life cycle of the specimens. The effect of nitrogen ion implantation indicated revealed improved the tensile strength due to the formation of nitride phases, TiN and Ti2N. The fatigue strength of Cp-Ti and Nii-Ti was 250 and 260 MPa, respectively. The analytical results show good agreement with experimental results.

  19. Anisotropic Elastoplastic Damage Mechanics Method to Predict Fatigue Life of the Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualiang Wan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available New damage mechanics method is proposed to predict the low-cycle fatigue life of metallic structures under multiaxial loading. The microstructure mechanical model is proposed to simulate anisotropic elastoplastic damage evolution. As the micromodel depends on few material parameters, the present method is very concise and suitable for engineering application. The material parameters in damage evolution equation are determined by fatigue experimental data of standard specimens. By employing further development on the ANSYS platform, the anisotropic elastoplastic damage mechanics-finite element method is developed. The fatigue crack propagation life of satellite structure is predicted using the present method and the computational results comply with the experimental data very well.

  20. Service Life Prediction of Wood Claddings by in-situ Measurement of Wood Moisture Content

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, Emil Tang; Lindegaard, Berit; Morsing, Niels

    2009-01-01

    The Danish Technological Institute is in co-operation with industry partners running a project aiming at predicting the service life of different wood protecting systems. The project focuses on examining the moisture reducing effect of different protecting systems for timber claddings...... and the ability of these to maintain the appearance of the surfaces, when the wood is used in service class 3 (EN 335-1 1992). A façade construction is exposed to weathering at the field test area of the Danish Technological Institute (near Copenhagen). In specific locations of the construction measurements...... of wood moisture are done by in-situ resistance moisture meters (Lindegaard and Morsing 2006). The aim is that the test should form the basis of evaluation of the maintenance requirements and the prediction of service life of the surface treatment and the wood/construction. At the moment 60 test racks...

  1. Bi-variable damage model for fatigue life prediction of metal components

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Miao Zhang; Qing-Chun Meng; Xing Zhang; Wei-Ping Hu

    2011-01-01

    Based on the theory of continuum damage mechanics, a bi-variable damage mechanics model is developed, which, according to thermodynamics, is accessible to derivation of damage driving force, damage evolution equation and damage evolution criteria. Furthermore, damage evolution equations of time rate are established by the generalized Drucker's postulate. The damage evolution equation of cycle rate is obtained by integrating the time damage evolution equations, and the fatigue life prediction method for smooth specimens under repeated loading with constant strain amplitude is constructed. Likewise, for notched specimens under the repeated loading with constant strain amplitude, the fatigue life prediction method is obtained on the ground of the theory of conservative integral in damage mechanics. Thus, the material parameters in the damage evolution equation can be obtained by reference to the fatigue test results of standard specimens with stress concentration factor equal to 1, 2 and 3.

  2. Basic traits predict the prevalence of personality disorder across the life span: the example of psychopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, David D; Lynam, Donald R; Widiger, Thomas A; Miller, Joshua D; McCrae, Robert R; Costa, Paul T

    2013-05-01

    Personality disorders (PDs) may be better understood in terms of dimensions of general personality functioning rather than as discrete categorical conditions. Personality-trait descriptions of PDs are robust across methods and settings, and PD assessments based on trait measures show good construct validity. The study reported here extends research showing that basic traits (e.g., impulsiveness, warmth, straightforwardness, modesty, and deliberation) can re-create the epidemiological characteristics associated with PDs. Specifically, we used normative changes in absolute trait levels to simulate age-related differences in the prevalence of psychopathy in a forensic setting. Results demonstrated that trait information predicts the rate of decline for psychopathy over the life span; discriminates the decline of psychopathy from that of a similar disorder, antisocial PD; and accurately predicts the differential decline of subfactors of psychopathy. These findings suggest that basic traits provide a parsimonious account of PD prevalence across the life span.

  3. Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction of Bridge Cables Based on Multiscaling and Mesoscopic Fracture Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongxiang Liu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Fatigue fracture of bridge stay-cables is usually a multiscale process as the crack grows from micro-scale to macro-scale. Such a process, however, is highly uncertain. In order to make a rational prediction of the residual life of bridge cables, a probabilistic fatigue approach is proposed, based on a comprehensive vehicle load model, finite element analysis and multiscaling and mesoscopic fracture mechanics. Uncertainties in both material properties and external loads are considered. The proposed method is demonstrated through the fatigue life prediction of cables of the Runyang Cable-Stayed Bridge in China, and it is found that cables along the bridge spans may have significantly different fatigue lives, and due to the variability, some of them may have shorter lives than those as expected from the design.

  4. Remaining useful life prediction for an adaptive skew-Wiener process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zeyi; Xu, Zhengguo; Ke, Xiaojie; Wang, Wenhai; Sun, Youxian

    2017-03-01

    Predicting the remaining useful life for operational devices plays a critical role in prognostics and health management. As the models based on the stochastic processes are widely used for characterizing the degradation trajectory, an adaptive skew-Wiener model, which is much more flexible than traditional stochastic process models, is proposed to model the degradation drift of industrial devices. To make full use of the prior knowledge and the historical information, an on-line filtering algorithm is proposed for state estimation, a two-stage algorithm is adopted to estimate unknown parameters as well. For remaining useful life prediction, a novel result is presented with an explicit form based on the closed skew normal distribution. Finally, sufficient Monte Carlo simulations and an application for ball bearings in rotating electrical machines are used to validate our approach.

  5. Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Gaussian Processes Mixture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lingling; Wang, Pengchong; Chao, Kuei-Hsiang; Zhou, Yatong; Xie, Yang

    2016-01-01

    The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Lithium-ion batteries is closely related to the capacity degeneration trajectories. Due to the self-charging and the capacity regeneration, the trajectories have the property of multimodality. Traditional prediction models such as the support vector machines (SVM) or the Gaussian Process regression (GPR) cannot accurately characterize this multimodality. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method based on the Gaussian Process Mixture (GPM). It can process multimodality by fitting different segments of trajectories with different GPR models separately, such that the tiny differences among these segments can be revealed. The method is demonstrated to be effective for prediction by the excellent predictive result of the experiments on the two commercial and chargeable Type 1850 Lithium-ion batteries, provided by NASA. The performance comparison among the models illustrates that the GPM is more accurate than the SVM and the GPR. In addition, GPM can yield the predictive confidence interval, which makes the prediction more reliable than that of traditional models. PMID:27632176

  6. Anisotropic Elastoplastic Damage Mechanics Method to Predict Fatigue Life of the Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Hualiang Wan; Qizhi Wang; Zheng Zhang

    2016-01-01

    New damage mechanics method is proposed to predict the low-cycle fatigue life of metallic structures under multiaxial loading. The microstructure mechanical model is proposed to simulate anisotropic elastoplastic damage evolution. As the micromodel depends on few material parameters, the present method is very concise and suitable for engineering application. The material parameters in damage evolution equation are determined by fatigue experimental data of standard specimens. By employing fu...

  7. Creep Rupture Life Prediction Based on Analysis of Large Creep Deformation

    OpenAIRE

    YE Wenming; HU Xuteng; Ma, Xiaojian; SONG Yingdong

    2016-01-01

    A creep rupture life prediction method for high temperature component was proposed. The method was based on a true stress-strain elastoplastic creep constitutive model and the large deformation finite element analysis method. This method firstly used the high-temperature tensile stress-strain curve expressed by true stress and strain and the creep curve to build materials' elastoplastic and creep constitutive model respectively, then used the large deformation finite element method to calcula...

  8. Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J.M.; Middleton, C.J.; Aplin, P.F. [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

    1998-12-31

    This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

  9. [A predictive model for the quality of sexual life in hysterectomized women].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrutia, María Teresa; Araya, Alejandra; Rivera, Soledad; Viviani, Paola; Villarroel, Luis

    2007-03-01

    The effects of hysterectomy on sexuality has been extensively studied. To establish a model to predict the quality of sexual life in hysterectomized women, six months after surgery. Analytical, longitudinal and prospective study of 90 hysterectomized women aged 45+/-7 years. Two structured interviews at the time of surgery and six months later were carried out to determine the characteristics of sexuality and communication within the couple. In the two interviews, communication and the quality of sexual life were described as "good" in 72 and 77% of women, respectively (NS). The variables that had a 40% influence on the quality of sexual life sixth months after surgery, were oophorectomy status, the presence of orgasm, the characteristics of communication and the basal sexuality with the couple. The sexuality of the hysterectomized women will depend, on a great extent, of pre-surgical variables. Therefore, it is important to consider these variables for the education of hysterectomized women.

  10. STRAPS v1.0: evaluating a methodology for predicting electron impact ionisation mass spectra for the aerosol mass spectrometer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O. Topping

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Our ability to model the chemical and thermodynamic processes that lead to secondary organic aerosol (SOA formation is thought to be hampered by the complexity of the system. While there are fundamental models now available that can simulate the tens of thousands of reactions thought to take place, validation against experiments is highly challenging. Techniques capable of identifying individual molecules such as chromatography are generally only capable of quantifying a subset of the material present, making it unsuitable for a carbon budget analysis. Integrative analytical methods such as the Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS are capable of quantifying all mass, but because of their inability to isolate individual molecules, comparisons have been limited to simple data products such as total organic mass and the O : C ratio. More detailed comparisons could be made if more of the mass spectral information could be used, but because a discrete inversion of AMS data is not possible, this activity requires a system of predicting mass spectra based on molecular composition. In this proof-of-concept study, the ability to train supervised methods to predict electron impact ionisation (EI mass spectra for the AMS is evaluated. Supervised Training Regression for the Arbitrary Prediction of Spectra (STRAPS is not built from first principles. A methodology is constructed whereby the presence of specific mass-to-charge ratio (m∕z channels is fitted as a function of molecular structure before the relative peak height for each channel is similarly fitted using a range of regression methods. The widely used AMS mass spectral database is used as a basis for this, using unit mass resolution spectra of laboratory standards. Key to the fitting process is choice of structural information, or molecular fingerprint. Our approach relies on using supervised methods to automatically optimise the relationship between spectral characteristics and these molecular

  11. STRAPS v1.0: evaluating a methodology for predicting electron impact ionisation mass spectra for the aerosol mass spectrometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, David O.; Allan, James; Rami Alfarra, M.; Aumont, Bernard

    2017-06-01

    Our ability to model the chemical and thermodynamic processes that lead to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation is thought to be hampered by the complexity of the system. While there are fundamental models now available that can simulate the tens of thousands of reactions thought to take place, validation against experiments is highly challenging. Techniques capable of identifying individual molecules such as chromatography are generally only capable of quantifying a subset of the material present, making it unsuitable for a carbon budget analysis. Integrative analytical methods such as the Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) are capable of quantifying all mass, but because of their inability to isolate individual molecules, comparisons have been limited to simple data products such as total organic mass and the O : C ratio. More detailed comparisons could be made if more of the mass spectral information could be used, but because a discrete inversion of AMS data is not possible, this activity requires a system of predicting mass spectra based on molecular composition. In this proof-of-concept study, the ability to train supervised methods to predict electron impact ionisation (EI) mass spectra for the AMS is evaluated. Supervised Training Regression for the Arbitrary Prediction of Spectra (STRAPS) is not built from first principles. A methodology is constructed whereby the presence of specific mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) channels is fitted as a function of molecular structure before the relative peak height for each channel is similarly fitted using a range of regression methods. The widely used AMS mass spectral database is used as a basis for this, using unit mass resolution spectra of laboratory standards. Key to the fitting process is choice of structural information, or molecular fingerprint. Our approach relies on using supervised methods to automatically optimise the relationship between spectral characteristics and these molecular fingerprints. Therefore

  12. An Integrated Approach to Fatigue Life Prediction of Whole System for Offshore Platforms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    方华灿; 段梦兰; 许发彦; 吴永宁; 樊晓东

    2001-01-01

    The failure of one or even more components usually does not lead to the collapse of the whole structure. Most of theanalysis of fatigue is centered on only a single component which the researchers are interested in or much attentionshould be paid to. However, the collapse of a structure is the result of failure of a series of components in a specific orderor path. This paper proposes an integrated approach to fatigue life prediction of whole structural system for offshoreplatforms, mainly describing the basic principles and prediction method. A method is presented for determining the fail-ure path of the whole structure system and calculating the fatigue life in the determined failure path. The correspondingfinal collapse criteria for the whole structure system are discussed. A simple method of equivalent fatigue stress range cal-culation and a mathematical model of structural component fatigue life estimation in consideration of sea wave and seaice loads are provided. As an application of the proposed approach, a fixed production platform Bohai No. 8 is chosenfor the predication of fatigue life of the whole structure system by means of the software OSFAC developed based on thepresent methods.

  13. How do Major, Violent and Nonviolent Opposition Campaigns, Impact Predicted Life Expectancy at birth?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Stoddard

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This study compared the effects of major violent and nonviolent opposition campaigns for regime change, on predicted life expectancy at birth. The study measured life expectancy five and ten years after the campaign ended, so that deaths which occurred during the campaign would not be included in the metric, and thus enabling the study of changes made in the state on the social determinants affecting longevity, after the campaign was over. Life expectancy is one of the best reported World Development Indicators and is considered to be a good indication of the overall health and general living conditions of the state and therefore is an ideal indicator to reflect the changes made in the state following a major campaign. The results of this analysis showed that states have a hard time recovering from a major opposition campaign and initially drop behind the growth trend in the world average for predicted life expectancy at birth. But, the type of campaign that was waged and whether it was successful, greatly affects the state’s ability to recover. Encouragingly by a decade after the campaign ends, states that experienced a nonviolent campaign that was successful had caught up to the world average and inched ahead of it. This shows that on this important development indicator, new governments that were ushered into power by nonviolent social movements, had made positive changes in the state that enabled it to surpass world averages.

  14. A Modelling Study for Predicting Life of Downhole Tubes Considering Service Environmental Parameters and Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianliang Zhao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A modelling effort was made to try to predict the life of downhole tubes or casings, synthetically considering the effect of service influencing factors on corrosion rate. Based on the discussed corrosion mechanism and corrosion processes of downhole tubes, a mathematic model was established. For downhole tubes, the influencing factors are environmental parameters and stress, which vary with service duration. Stress and the environmental parameters including water content, partial pressure of H2S and CO2, pH value, total pressure and temperature, were considered to be time-dependent. Based on the model, life-span of an L80 downhole tube in oilfield Halfaya, an oilfield in Iraq, was predicted. The results show that life-span of the L80 downhole tube in Halfaya is 247 months (approximately 20 years under initial stress of 0.1 yield strength and 641 months (approximately 53 years under no initial stress, which indicates that an initial stress of 0.1 yield strength will reduce the life-span by more than half.

  15. A New Energy-Critical Plane Damage Parameter for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng-Yong Yu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available As one of fracture critical components of an aircraft engine, accurate life prediction of a turbine blade to disk attachment is significant for ensuring the engine structural integrity and reliability. Fatigue failure of a turbine blade is often caused under multiaxial cyclic loadings at high temperatures. In this paper, considering different failure types, a new energy-critical plane damage parameter is proposed for multiaxial fatigue life prediction, and no extra fitted material constants will be needed for practical applications. Moreover, three multiaxial models with maximum damage parameters on the critical plane are evaluated under tension-compression and tension-torsion loadings. Experimental data of GH4169 under proportional and non-proportional fatigue loadings and a case study of a turbine disk-blade contact system are introduced for model validation. Results show that model predictions by Wang-Brown (WB and Fatemi-Socie (FS models with maximum damage parameters are conservative and acceptable. For the turbine disk-blade contact system, both of the proposed damage parameters and Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT model show reasonably acceptable correlations with its field number of flight cycles. However, life estimations of the turbine blade reveal that the definition of the maximum damage parameter is not reasonable for the WB model but effective for both the FS and SWT models.

  16. Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shryock, Daniel F.; DeFalco, Lesley A.; Esque, Todd C.

    2014-01-01

    The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies.

  17. Prediction of material removal rate and surface roughness for wire electrical discharge machining of nickel using response surface methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thangam Chinnadurai

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on investigating the effects of process parameters, namely, Peak current (Ip, Pulse on time (Ton, Pulse off time (Toff, Water pressure (Wp, Wire feed rate (Wf, Wire tension (Wt, Servo voltage (Sv and Servo feed setting (Sfs, on the Material Removal Rate (MRR and Surface Roughness (SR for Wire electrical discharge machining (Wire-EDM of nickel using Taguchi method. Response Surface Methodology (RSM is adopted to evolve mathematical relationships between the wire cutting process parameters and the output variables of the weld joint to determine the welding input parameters that lead to the desired optimal wire cutting quality. Besides, using response surface plots, the interaction effects of process parameters on the responses are analyzed and discussed. The statistical software Mini-tab is used to establish the design and to obtain the regression equations. The developed mathematical models are tested by analysis-of-variance (ANOVA method to check their appropriateness and suitability. Finally, a comparison is made between measured and calculated results, which are in good agreement. This indicates that the developed models can predict the responses accurately and precisely within the limits of cutting parameter being used.

  18. Technical note: Methodological and feed factors affecting prediction of ruminal degradability and intestinal digestibility of essential amino acids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Robin R; Kononoff, Paul J; Firkins, Jeffrey L

    2017-03-01

    We hypothesized that ruminal degradability of essential AA (EAA) and the intestinal digestibility of the ruminally undegraded EAA residue in feeds could be evaluated in a meta-analysis. The objective was to characterize methodological factors for ruminal incubation (time of incubation of feed in situ) and method of simulating digestion of the ruminally undegraded AA (incubation of residue in digestive enzymes in vitro or in mobile bags inserted into the duodenum). To increase numbers of observations, feeds were categorized before ANOVA. An approach is described to predict differential ruminal degradability (or undegradability) of individual EAA by normalizing them as a proportion of total AA (TAA) degradability (undegradability) and similarly to normalize the intestinal digestibility of EAA using TAA. Interaction of feed category with individual EAA justifies future studies with a broader range of feeds and more replication within feed to bolster this approach. With broader data, the approach to normalize EAA as a proportion of TAA should allow a better defined EAA library to be integrated with more robust CP databases (that can be updated with specific feed information from more routine laboratory analyses) in dairy supply-requirement models.

  19. 四参数疲劳定寿方法%Four-parameter life prediction method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宁向荣; 陈伟; 蔡显新; 廖学军; 米栋

    2012-01-01

    对直升机传动系统采用的一种疲劳定寿方法——四参数法进行了研究:首先介绍了四参数应力一循环(S—N)曲线,然后详细介绍了通过材料平均S—N曲线获取构件安全S—N曲线的步骤以及直升机传动系统四参数疲劳定寿的程序和方法,研究了定寿流程中的各个技术细节.同时介绍了传动系统机匣疲劳试验中的多路协调加载技术以及某传动系统尾减机匣(TGB)的全尺寸疲劳试验情况.最后采用四参数疲劳定寿方法,根据某传动系统尾减机匣全尺寸疲劳试验结果和飞行实测载荷谱,对尾减机匣进行了安全寿命评估.该实例分析表明:四参数疲劳定寿方法为一种有效、可靠的寿命评估方法,具有推广价值.%Four-parameter life prediction method for helicopter transmission system was studied. Four-parameter stress-number of cycles (S-N) curve was presented first, and then, the derivation of helicopter transmission component safe S-N curve from material mean S-N curve and the scheme for the component life prediction were introduced in detail. Multi-load coordinating loading technology in fatigue test and a tail gear box (TGB) casing full-scale fatigue test were introduced at the same time. Finally, according to the full-scale fatigue test result and flight load survey data, applying the four-parameter life prediction method, the TGB casing life prediction was performed, which indicates that four-parameter life prediction method is a reliable and effective method and is worth to be generalized.

  20. Do Personality Traits Predict Functional Impairment and Quality of Life in Adult ADHD? A Controlled Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, J Allison; Antshel, Kevin M; Biederman, Joseph; Faraone, Stephen V

    2015-11-25

    To examine the association of personality traits and characteristics on quality of life and functioning in adults with ADHD. Participants were adults with (n = 206) and without ADHD (n = 123) who completed the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI), the Quality of Life Enjoyment and Satisfaction Questionnaire (Q-LES-Q), and the Social Adjustment Scale-Self-Report (SAS-SR). Participants also provided information on academic, motor vehicle operation, legal, social, familial, and occupational functioning. Outcomes were examined using stepwise linear regression, logistic regression (for binary outcomes), and negative binomial regression (for count outcomes) controlling for ADHD symptoms, psychiatric comorbidity, and executive dysfunction. Adults with ADHD significantly differed from controls across nearly all TCI personality domains. On average, adults with ADHD endorsed more novelty seeking, harm avoidance, and self-transcendence, and less reward dependence, persistence, self-directedness, and cooperativeness. Personality traits and characteristics, especially self-directedness, significantly predicted functional impairments even after controlling for ADHD symptoms, executive function deficits, and current psychiatric comorbidities. In adults with ADHD, personality traits exert unique associations on quality of life and functional impairment across major life domains, beyond the relations expected of and associated with ADHD symptoms and other associated psychiatric conditions and cognitive vulnerabilities. Addressing personality traits in adults with ADHD may lead to improvements in quality of life and reductions in functional impairment. © The Author(s) 2015.

  1. The Role of Religious Coping in Predicting Quality of Life in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N Askari

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background & aim: Multiple sclerosis is a chronic disease of the nervous system which usually begins in young adults and pathologically characterized by demyelination and glial scarring. According to psychological problems after suffering, the aim of this study was to investigate the influence of religious coping on quality of life in patients with MS. Methods: In the present descriptive study, forty-three patients with multiple sclerosis referred to the CNS Center of Ali bin Abi Talib Hospital of Zahedan, Iran, in 2013 were selected. Using religious coping and quality of life, variables were assessed. The data were analyzed by using the correlation and step-wise regression methods. Results: A positive correlation were seen between religious coping with the passive role due to emotional problems (of QOL and between religious activities and democratic assessments a significant (p<0.05. The regression results also showed that religious activities in the first step alone 0.07 changed the psychological quality of life and in the second step religious activity along with passive religious coping predicted 0.2 of changes of psychological quality of life. Conclusion: Increasing religious and spiritual activities may contribute to improving the quality of life in patients with multiple sclerosis.

  2. Predicting Life-History Trade-Offs with Whole-Organism Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lailvaux, Simon P; Husak, Jerry F

    2017-08-01

    Whole-organism performance traits are key intermediaries between the organism and the environment. Because performance traits are energetically costly to both build and maintain, performance will compete with other life-history traits over a limited pool of acquired energetic resources at any given time, potentially leading to trade-offs in performance expression. Although these trade-offs can have important implications for organismal fitness we currently lack a conceptual framework for predicting both where trade-offs might be expected, and which traits may be especially prone to trade-offs with other fitness-related life-history traits. We propose such a framework based on an estimate of the energetic requirements of locomotion in vertebrates, the ecological cost of transport. By analyzing existing data on mammalian energetic budgets and life-history, we found that species with higher costs of locomotion also tended to be those with "slow" life histories that invest relatively less in current reproduction than "fast" life-history species. We discuss the potential implications of ectothermy for masking such relationships, and how this framework might be expanded upon in the future. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Real time remaining useful life prediction based on nonlinear Wiener based degradation processes with measurement errors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐圣金; 郭晓松; 于传强; 周志杰; 周召发; 张邦成

    2014-01-01

    Real time remaining useful life (RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance (CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item’s individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.

  4. Prediction Model for the Life of Nickel-cadmium Batteries in Geosynchronous Orbit Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engleman, J. H.; Zirkes-Falco, M. B.; Bogner, R. S.; Pickett, D. F., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    A mathematical model is described which predicts the service life of nickel-cadmium batteries designed for geosynchronous orbit satellites. Regression analysis technique is used to analyze orbital data on second generation trickle charged batteries. The model gives average cell voltage as a function of design parameters, operating parameters and time. The voltage model has the properties of providing a good fit to the data, good predictive capability, and agreement with known battery performance characteristics. Average cell voltage can be predicted to within 0.02 volts for up to 8 years. This modeling shows that these batteries will operate reliably for 10 years. Third-generation batteries are expected to operate even longer.

  5. Prediction of Combine Economic Life Based on Repair and Maintenance Costs Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Rohani

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Farm machinery managers often need to make complex economic decisions on machinery replacement. Repair and maintenance costs can have significant impacts on this economic decision. The farm manager must be able to predict farm machinery repair and maintenance costs. This study aimed to identify a regression model that can adequately represent the repair and maintenance costs in terms of machine age in cumulative hours of use. The regression model has the ability to predict the repair and maintenance costs for longer time periods. Therefore, it can be used for the estimation of the economic life. The study was conducted using field data collected from 11 John-Deer 955 combine harvesters used in several western provinces of Iran. It was found that power model has a better performance for the prediction of combine repair and maintenance costs. The results showed that the optimum replacement age of John-Deer 955 combine was 54300 cumulative hours.

  6. A novel health indicator for on-line lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yapeng; Huang, Miaohua; Chen, Yupu; Tao, Ye

    2016-07-01

    Prediction of lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life (RUL) plays an important role in an intelligent battery management system. The capacity and internal resistance are often used as the batteries health indicator (HI) for quantifying degradation and predicting RUL. However, on-line measurement of capacity and internal resistance are hardly realizable due to the not fully charged and discharged condition and the extremely expensive cost, respectively. Therefore, there is a great need to find an optional way to deal with this plight. In this work, a novel HI is extracted from the operating parameters of lithium-ion batteries for degradation modeling and RUL prediction. Moreover, Box-Cox transformation is employed to improve HI performance. Then Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses are utilized to evaluate the similarity between real capacity and the estimated capacity derived from the HI. Next, both simple statistical regression technique and optimized relevance vector machine are employed to predict the RUL based on the presented HI. The correlation analyses and prediction results show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed HI for battery degradation modeling and RUL prediction.

  7. Flexural fatigue life prediction of closed hat-section using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzaq, Zia

    1989-01-01

    Straight or curved hat-section members are often used as structural stiffeners in aircraft. For instance, they are employed as stiffeners for the dorsal skin as well as in the aerial refueling adjacent area structure in F-106 aircraft. The flanges of the hat-section are connected to the aircraft skin. Thus, the portion of the skin closing the hat-section interacts with the section itself when resisting the stresses due to service loads. The flexural fatigue life of such a closed section is estimated using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics. It should be recognized that when a structural shape is subjected to bending, the fatigue life at the neutral axis is infinity since the normal stresses are zero at that location. Conversely, the fatigue life at the extreme fibers where the normal bending stresses are maximum can be expected to be finite. Thus, different fatigue life estimates can be visualized at various distances from the neural axis. The problem becomes compounded further when significant portions away from the neutral axis are stressed into plastic range. A theoretical analysis of the closed hat-section subjected to flexural cyclic loading is first conducted. The axial fatigue characteristics together with the related axial fatigue life formula and its inverted form given by Manson and Muralidharan are adopted for an aluminum alloy used in aircraft construction. A closed-form expression for predicting the flexural fatigue life is then derived for the closed hat-section including materially nonlinear action. A computer program is written to conduct a study of the variables such as the thicknesses of the hat-section and the skin, and the type of alloy used. The study has provided a fundamental understanding of the flexural fatigue life characteristics of a practical structural component used in aircraft when materially nonlinear action is present.

  8. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundholm, Jeremy; Heim, Amy; Tran, Stephanie; Smith, Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth) to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies) for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that favor less

  9. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Lundholm

    Full Text Available Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that

  10. Predicting life satisfaction during middle adulthood from peer relationships during mid-adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marion, Donna; Laursen, Brett; Zettergren, Peter; Bergman, Lars R

    2013-08-01

    The immediate advantages of adolescent friendships and disadvantages of peer rejection are well documented, but there is little evidence that these effects extend into adulthood. This study tested the hypothesis that peer relationships during adolescence predict life satisfaction during middle adulthood, using data from a 30-year prospective longitudinal study. Participants included 996 (49.5% female) 8th grade students from a community sample of Swedish youth. Self-reports of friendship and peer reports of rejection were obtained when participants were age 15. Self-reports of global life satisfaction and perceived relationship quality were collected at age 43 for women and age 48 for men. Path analyses tested a direct-effects model that examined links from adolescent friendship participation and peer rejection to middle adulthood outcomes, and a buffered-effects model that examined links from adolescent peer rejection to middle adulthood outcomes, separately for those with and without friends during adolescence. Strong support emerged for the buffered-effects model but not the direct-effects model. Adolescent friendship participation moderated associations between adolescent peer rejection and adult global life satisfaction and between adolescent peer rejection and adult perceived relationship quality such that peer rejection predicted poorer adult outcomes for youth without friends but not for youth with friends. The findings suggest that the risks of peer rejection-and benefits of friendship-extend from adolescence well into middle age.

  11. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean [Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon [Korea Railroad Research Institute, Uiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-01-15

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  12. Fatigue Life Prediction of Multi Leaf Spring used in the Suspension System of Light Commercial Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.K.Aher

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Leaf spring is widely used in automobiles and one of the components of suspension system. It needs to have high fatigue life. As a general rule, the leaf spring is regarded as a safety component as failure could lead to severe accidents. The purpose of this paper is to predict the fatigue life of steel leaf spring along with analytical stress and deflection calculations. This present work describes static and fatigue analysis of a steel leaf spring of a light commercial vehicle (LCV. The dimensions of the leaf spring of a LCV are taken and are verified by design calculations. The non-linear static analysis of 2D model of the leaf spring is performed using NASTRAN solver and compared with analytical results. The preprocessing of the model is done by using HYPERMESH software. The stiffness of the leaf spring is studied by plotting load versus deflection curve for various load applications. The simulation results are compared with analytical results. The fatigue life of the leaf spring is predicted using MSC Fatigue software.

  13. Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliffe Steve

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287. Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health, or not (less than full health, was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing

  14. Life prediction of prediction beams of high- pile wharf in service life%在役高桩码头横梁剩余寿命预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孟静; 李鑫

    2014-01-01

    This paper starts with the impact resistance of high-pile wharf structure’s changes,including chloride,carbona-tion of concrete, concrete strength and other factors which changed over time, and considers the uncertainty of the material itself. After a comprehensive analysis, the model of beam resistance changes over time was established and taken the cross member reinforced concrete corrosion time as a variable. It calculated the reliability index of high-pile wharf beams,and made a solution combined with the reliability index required by codes to obtain the service life. The results show that meet engineering practice. The research results can provide a scientific basis for life prediction of high-pile wharf structure.%从影响高桩码头结构抗力变化的氯离子、混凝土碳化、混凝土强度等随时间变化的主要因素入手,考虑了材料本身的不确定性。综合分析后,将横梁构件钢筋混凝土锈蚀时间作为变量,建立了横梁抗力随时间变化的模型,计算了该港区的码头横梁可靠指标,并和规范要求的可靠指标联合求解,得出了其使用年限。结果表明符合该工程实际。研究结果可为高桩码头结构寿命预测提供科学的依据。

  15. Predicting employment status and subjective quality of life in patients with schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruo Fujino

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Although impaired social functioning, particularly poor employment status, is a cardinal feature of patients with schizophrenia and leads to decreased quality of life (QOL, few studies have addressed the relationship between these two clinical issues. The aim of this study was to determine whether employment status predicts subjective QOL and to evaluate a model in which functional capacity mediates the relationship between general cognitive performance and employment status. Ninety-three patients with schizophrenia were administered a comprehensive battery of cognitive tests, the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief version (UPSA-B, the Social Functioning Scale (SFS, and the Subjective Quality of Life Scale (SQLS. First, we evaluated a model for predicting the employment/occupation subscale score of the SFS using path analysis, and the model fitted well (χ2 (4 = 3.6, p = 0.46; CFI = 1.0; RMSEA < 0.001, with 90% CIs: 0–0.152. Employment status was predicted by negative symptoms and functional capacity, which was in turn predicted by general cognitive performance. Second, we added subjective QOL to this model. In a final path model, QOL was predicted by negative symptoms and employment status. This model also satisfied good fit criteria (χ2 (7 = 10.3, p = 0.17; CFI = 0.987; RMSEA = 0.072, with 90% CIs: 0–0.159. The UPSA-B and SFS scores were moderately correlated with most measures of cognitive performance. These results support the notion that better employment status enhances subjective QOL in patients with schizophrenia.

  16. Condition-based prediction of time-dependent reliability in composites

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a reliability-based prediction methodology to obtain the remaining useful life of composite materials subjected to fatigue degradation....

  17. Incorporation of Half-Cycle Theory Into Ko Aging Theory for Aerostructural Flight-Life Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, William L.; Tran, Van T.; Chen, Tony

    2007-01-01

    The half-cycle crack growth theory was incorporated into the Ko closed-form aging theory to improve accuracy in the predictions of operational flight life of failure-critical aerostructural components. A new crack growth computer program was written for reading the maximum and minimum loads of each half-cycle from the random loading spectra for crack growth calculations and generation of in-flight crack growth curves. The unified theories were then applied to calculate the number of flights (operational life) permitted for B-52B pylon hooks and Pegasus adapter pylon hooks to carry the Hyper-X launching vehicle that air launches the X-43 Hyper-X research vehicle. A crack growth curve for each hook was generated for visual observation of the crack growth behavior during the entire air-launching or captive flight. It was found that taxiing and the takeoff run induced a major portion of the total crack growth per flight. The operational life theory presented can be applied to estimate the service life of any failure-critical structural components.

  18. Neuroticism and Extraversion in Youth Predict Mental Wellbeing and Life Satisfaction 40 Years Later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Catharine R; Booth, Tom; Mõttus, René; Kuh, Diana; Deary, Ian J

    2013-12-01

    Neuroticism and Extraversion are linked with current wellbeing, but it is unclear whether these traits in youth predict wellbeing decades later. We applied structural equation modelling to data from 4583 people from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. We examined the effects of Neuroticism and Extraversion at ages 16 and 26 years on mental wellbeing and life satisfaction at age 60-64 and explored the mediating roles of psychological and physical health. Extraversion had direct, positive effects on both measures of wellbeing. The impact of Neuroticism on both wellbeing and life satisfaction was largely indirect through susceptibility to psychological distress and physical health problems. Personality dispositions in youth have enduring influence on wellbeing assessed about forty years later.

  19. Mathematical Model of Load Pass and Prediction of Fatigue Life on Bolt Threads with Reduced Lead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asayama, Yukiteru

    A mathematical model is proposed in order to elucidate the mechanism that the fatigue strength of external threads increases by reducing the lead on a thread system such as a bolt and nut. The model is constructed from the concept that a local strain proportional to the reducing degree of the lead, although the local strain is at first produced in the bolt thread farthest from the bearing surface of the nut, is induced in each thread root with an increase of applied load. The fatigue life predicted from the mathematical model shows good agreement with the experimental fatigue life of cadmium-plated external threads with the reduced lead on the material having strength as high as 1270MPa. The model can provide useful suggestions for the design of fasteners for aerospace, which are required to satisfy severe requirements of fatigue strengths and dimensions.

  20. Structural strength analysis and fatigue life prediction of traction converter box in high-speed EMU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Qin; Li, Qiang

    2017-01-01

    The method of building the FEA model of traction converter box in high-speed EMU and analyzing the static strength and fatigue strength of traction converter box based on IEC 61373-2010 and EN 12663 standards is presented in this paper. The load-stress correlation coefficients of weak points is obtained by FEA model, applied to transfer the load history of traction converter box to stress history of each point. The fatigue damage is calculated based on Miner's rule and the fatigue life of traction converter box is predicted. According to study, the structural strength of traction converter box meets design requirements.

  1. Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm-Based Particle Filter for Li-Ion Battery Life Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Tian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An intelligent online prognostic approach is proposed for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL of lithium-ion (Li-ion batteries based on artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA and particle filter (PF, which is an integrated approach combining model-based method with data-driven method. The parameters, used in the empirical model which is based on the capacity fade trends of Li-ion batteries, are identified dependent on the tracking ability of PF. AFSA-PF aims to improve the performance of the basic PF. By driving the prior particles to the domain with high likelihood, AFSA-PF allows global optimization, prevents particle degeneracy, thereby improving particle distribution and increasing prediction accuracy and algorithm convergence. Data provided by NASA are used to verify this approach and compare it with basic PF and regularized PF. AFSA-PF is shown to be more accurate and precise.

  2. [Prediction of life expectancy for prostate cancer patients based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viktorov, A A; Zharinov, G M; Neklasova, N Ju; Morozova, E E

    2017-01-01

    The article presents a methodical approach for prediction of life expectancy for people diagnosed with prostate cancer based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems. The life expectancy is calculated by solving the differential equation for the rate of aging for three different stage of life - «normal» life, life with prostate cancer and life after combination therapy for prostate cancer. The mathematical model of aging for each stage of life has its own parameters identified by the statistical analysis of healthcare data from the Zharinov's databank and Rosstat CDR NES databank. The core of the methodical approach is the statistical correlation between growth rate of the prostate specific antigen level (PSA-level) or the PSA doubling time (PSA DT) before therapy, and lifespan: the higher the PSA DT is, the greater lifespan. The patients were grouped under the «fast PSA DT» and «slow PSA DT» categories. The satisfactory matching between calculations and experiment is shown. The prediction error of group life expectancy is due to the completeness and reliability of the main data source. A detailed monitoring of the basic health indicators throughout the each person life in each analyzed group is required. The absence of this particular information makes it impossible to predict the individual life expectancy.

  3. Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moor, Helen

    2017-01-01

    Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species' overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence

  4. Adolescent inpatient girls׳ report of dependent life events predicts prospective suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Lindsey B; Liu, Richard T; Yen, Shirley

    2014-09-30

    Adolescents with a history of suicidal behavior are especially vulnerable for future suicide attempts, particularly following discharge from an inpatient psychiatric admission. This study is the first to test whether adolescents׳ tendency to generate stress, or report more dependent events to which they contributed, was predictive of prospective suicide events. Ninety adolescent psychiatric inpatients who were admitted for recent suicide risk, completed diagnostic interviews, assessments of history of suicidal behavior, and a self-report questionnaire of major life events at baseline. Participants were followed over the subsequent 6 months after discharge to assess stability vs. onset of suicide events. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used to predict adolescents׳ time to suicide events. Results supported hypothesis, such that only recent greater dependent events, not independent or overall events, predicted risk for prospective suicide events. This effect was specific to adolescent girls. Importantly, dependent events maintained statistical significance as a predictor of future suicide events after co-varying for the effects of several established risk factors and psychopathology. Results suggest that the tendency to generate dependent events may contribute unique additional prediction for adolescent girls׳ prospective suicide risk, and highlight the need for future work in this area.

  5. Genomic biomarkers of prenatal intrauterine inflammation in umbilical cord tissue predict later life neurological outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilley, Sloane K; Joseph, Robert M; Kuban, Karl C K; Dammann, Olaf U; O'Shea, T Michael; Fry, Rebecca C

    2017-01-01

    Preterm birth is a major risk factor for neurodevelopmental delays and disorders. This study aimed to identify genomic biomarkers of intrauterine inflammation in umbilical cord tissue in preterm neonates that predict cognitive impairment at 10 years of age. Genome-wide messenger RNA (mRNA) levels from umbilical cord tissue were obtained from 43 neonates born before 28 weeks of gestation. Genes that were differentially expressed across four indicators of intrauterine inflammation were identified and their functions examined. Exact logistic regression was used to test whether expression levels in umbilical cord tissue predicted neurocognitive function at 10 years of age. Placental indicators of inflammation were associated with changes in the mRNA expression of 445 genes in umbilical cord tissue. Transcripts with decreased expression showed significant enrichment for biological signaling processes related to neuronal development and growth. The altered expression of six genes was found to predict neurocognitive impairment when children were 10 years old These genes include two that encode for proteins involved in neuronal development. Prenatal intrauterine inflammation is associated with altered gene expression in umbilical cord tissue. A set of six of the differentially expressed genes predict cognitive impairment later in life, suggesting that the fetal environment is associated with significant adverse effects on neurodevelopment that persist into later childhood.

  6. A Test of a Strong Ground Motion Prediction Methodology for the 7 September 1999, Mw=6.0 Athens Earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchings, L; Ioannidou, E; Voulgaris, N; Kalogeras, I; Savy, J; Foxall, W; Stavrakakis, G

    2004-08-06

    We test a methodology to predict the range of ground-motion hazard for a fixed magnitude earthquake along a specific fault or within a specific source volume, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this into probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). We modeled ground motion with empirical Green's functions. We tested our methodology with the 7 September 1999, Mw=6.0 Athens earthquake, we: (1) developed constraints on rupture parameters based on prior knowledge of earthquake rupture processes and sources in the region; (2) generated impulsive point shear source empirical Green's functions by deconvolving out the source contribution of M < 4.0 aftershocks; (3) used aftershocks that occurred throughout the area and not necessarily along the fault to be modeled; (4) ran a sufficient number of scenario earthquakes to span the full variability of ground motion possible; (5) found that our distribution of synthesized ground motions span what actually occurred and their distribution is realistically narrow; (6) determined that one of our source models generates records that match observed time histories well; (7) found that certain combinations of rupture parameters produced ''extreme'' ground motions at some stations; (8) identified that the ''best fitting'' rupture models occurred in the vicinity of 38.05{sup o} N 23.60{sup o} W with center of rupture near 12 km, and near unilateral rupture towards the areas of high damage, and this is consistent with independent investigations; and (9) synthesized strong motion records in high damage areas for which records from the earthquake were not recorded. We then developed a demonstration PSHA for a source region near Athens utilizing synthesized ground motion rather that traditional attenuation. We synthesized 500 earthquakes distributed throughout the source zone likely to have Mw=6.0 earthquakes near Athens. We assumed an average return period of 1000 years for this

  7. Methodology for Using 3-Dimensional Sonography to Measure Fetal Adrenal Gland Volumes in Pregnant Women With and Without Early Life Stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Deborah; Epperson, C Neill; Ewing, Grace; Appleby, Dina; Sammel, Mary D; Wang, Eileen

    2016-09-01

    Fetal adrenal gland volumes on 3-dimensional sonography have been studied as potential predictors of preterm birth. However, no consistent methodology has been published. This article describes the methodology used in a study that is evaluating the effects of maternal early life stress on fetal adrenal growth to allow other researchers to compare methodologies across studies. Fetal volumetric data were obtained in 36 women at 20 to 22 and 28 to 30 weeks' gestation. Two independent examiners measured multiple images of a single fetal adrenal gland from each sonogram. Intra- and inter-rater consistency was examined. In addition, fetal adrenal volumes between male and female fetuses were reported. The intra- and inter-rater reliability was satisfactory when the mean of 3 measurements from each rater was used. At 20 weeks' gestation, male fetuses had larger average adjusted adrenal volumes than female fetuses (mean, 0.897 versus 0.638; P = .004). At 28 weeks' gestation, the fetal weight was more influential in determining values for adjusted fetal adrenal volume (0.672 for male fetuses versus 0.526 for female fetuses; P = .034). This article presents a methodology for assessing fetal adrenal volume using 3-dimensional sonography that can be used by other researchers to provide more consistency across studies.

  8. A review on fatigue life prediction methods for anti-vibration rubber materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoli WANG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Anti-vibration rubber, because of its superior elasticity, plasticity, waterproof and trapping characteristics, is widely used in the automotive industry, national defense, construction and other fields. The theory and technology of predicting fatigue life is of great significance to improve the durability design and manufacturing of anti-vibration rubber products. According to the characteristics of the anti-vibration rubber products in service, the technical difficulties for analyzing fatigue properties of anti-vibration rubber materials are pointed out. The research progress of the fatigue properties of rubber materials is reviewed from three angles including methods of fatigue crack initiation, fatigue crack propagation and fatigue damage accumulation. It is put forward that some nonlinear characteristics of rubber under fatigue loading, including the Mullins effect, permanent deformation and cyclic stress softening, should be considered in the further study of rubber materials. Meanwhile, it is indicated that the fatigue damage accumulation method based on continuum damage mechanics might be more appropriate to solve fatigue damage and life prediction problems for complex rubber materials and structures under fatigue loading.

  9. Lubrication Oil Condition Monitoring and Remaining Useful Life Prediction With Particle Filtering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongzhi Qu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the costs of wind energy, it is necessary to improve the wind turbine availability and reduce the operational and maintenance costs. The reliability and availability of a functioning wind turbine depend largely on the protective properties of the lubrication oil for its drive train subassemblies such as gearbox and means for lubrication oil condition monitoring and degradation detection. The wind industry currently uses lubrication oil analysis for detecting gearbox and bearing wear but cannot detect the functional failures of the lubrication oils. The main purpose of lubrication oil condition monitoring and degradation detection is to determine whether the oils have deteriorated to such a degree that they no longer fulfill their functions. This paper describes a research on developing online lubrication oil health condition monitoring and remaining useful life prediction with particle filtering technique using commercially available online sensors. The paper first presents a survey on current state-of-the-art online lubrication oil condition monitoring solutions and their characteristics along with the classification and evaluation of each technique. It is then followed by an investigation on wind turbine gearbox lubrication oil health condition monitoring and degradation detection using online viscosity and dielectric constant sensors. In particular, the lubricant performance evaluation and remaining useful life prediction of degraded lubrication oil with viscosity and dielectric constant data using particle filtering are presented. A simulation case study is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed technique.

  10. Baseline Quality of Life Factors Predict Long Term Survival after Elective Resection for Colorectal Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhiram Sharma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Studies have shown an association between baseline quality of life (Qol and survival in advanced cancers. The aim of this study was to investigate their predictive value in long term survival after elective colorectal cancer resection. Methods. A consecutive series of patients undergoing elective colorectal cancer surgery for nonmetastatic disease were recruited in 2003/04. Patients completed standardized quality of life questionnaires (HADS, FACTC, MRS, and PANAS prior to and 6 weeks after surgery. Univariate (log-rank test and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazards were performed to predict long term survival. Results. Ninety-seven patients met the inclusion criteria. Sixty-five (67% were male and the median age of the group was 70 years. Forty-six (47.5% patients had died and the mean survival was 1,741 days (median 2159, range 9–2923 days. Preoperative mood rating scale and functional assessment of cancer therapy-colorectal FACT C emotional well-being and postoperative FACT C additional concerns were independent predictors of long term survival. Conclusion. Incorporating psychosocial measures in preoperative assessment of cancer patients could help to identify patients who require assessment with a view to implementing psychosocial interventions. These active interventions to maximize mood and well-being should form an integral part of multidisciplinary treatment in these patients.

  11. Contact Stress Analysis and Fatigue Life Prediction of a Turbine Fan Disc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Liang; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Lv, Zhiqiang; Zuo, Fang-Jun; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2016-06-01

    Fan discs are critical components of an aero engine. In this paper, contact stress and life prediction of a turbine fan disc were investigated. A simplified pin/disc model was conducted to simulate the practical working condition under applied loads using finite element (FE) analysis. This study is devoted to examining the effects of interface condition of pin/disc such as gap and coefficient upon the maximum stress. The FE model indicated that the maximum stress occurs at the top right corner in the second pin hole, and larger gap or friction coefficient has a significant effect on the maximum stress. In addition, FE analysis without considering friction is also conducted. The results show that the dangerous point is similar to the result which considers friction and the stress state is relatively larger than that of considering friction. Finally, based on FE analysis result, life prediction for the fan disc is conducted to combine the material S-N curve, mean stress effects and concentration stress factor obtained by means of FE method.

  12. Service Life Prediction of Wood Claddings by in-situ Measurement of Wood Moisture Content

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, Emil Tang; Lindegaard, Berit; Morsing, Niels

    2009-01-01

    The Danish Technological Institute is in co-operation with industry partners running a project aiming at predicting the service life of different wood protecting systems. The project focuses on examining the moisture reducing effect of different protecting systems for timber claddings and the abi......The Danish Technological Institute is in co-operation with industry partners running a project aiming at predicting the service life of different wood protecting systems. The project focuses on examining the moisture reducing effect of different protecting systems for timber claddings...... are exposed. This study examines the data from the first five years of outdoor exposure using data from a test rack with a water-borne acrylic coating and a test rack with ICP coating for case studies. The moisture content data was converted into weekly average and weekly variation values which gave a deeper...... insight into the performance of the tested systems. The first was used to check for moisture build-up in the construction whereas the latter gave an indication of the gradual degradation of the coating itself, i.e. the degree of cracking. A linear tendency with time was found for all tested systems...

  13. In your eyes: does theory of mind predict impaired life functioning in bipolar disorder?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Amanda L; Phillips, Mary; Gruber, June

    2013-12-01

    Deficits in emotion perception and social functioning are strongly implicated in bipolar disorder (BD). Examining theory of mind (ToM) may provide one potential mechanism to explain observed socio-emotional impairments in this disorder. The present study prospectively investigated the relationship between theory of mind performance and life functioning in individuals diagnosed with BD compared to unipolar depression and healthy control groups. Theory of mind (ToM) performance was examined in 26 individuals with remitted bipolar I disorder (BD), 29 individuals with remitted unipolar depression (UD), and 28 healthy controls (CTL) using a well-validated advanced theory of mind task. Accuracy and response latency scores were calculated from the task. Life functioning was measured during a 12 month follow-up session. No group differences for ToM accuracy emerged. However, the BD group exhibited significantly shorter response times than the UD and CTL groups. Importantly, quicker response times in the BD group predicted greater life functioning impairment at a 12-month follow-up, even after controlling for baseline symptoms. The stimuli were static representations of emotional states and do not allow for evaluating the appropriateness of context during emotional communication; due to sample size, neither specific comorbidities nor medication effects were analyzed for the BD and UD groups; preliminary status of theory of mind as a construct. Results suggest that quickened socio-emotional decision making may represent a risk factor for future functional impairment in BD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Do Metacognitions and Intolerance of Uncertainty Predict Worry in Everyday Life? An Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thielsch, Carolin; Andor, Tanja; Ehring, Thomas

    2015-07-01

    Cognitive models of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) suggest that excessive worry is due to positive and negative metacognitive beliefs and/or intolerance of uncertainty. Empirical support mainly derives from cross-sectional studies with limited conclusiveness, using self-report measures and thereby possibly causing recall biases. The aim of the present study therefore was to examine the power of these cognitive variables to predict levels of worry in everyday life using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA). Metacognitions and intolerance of uncertainty were assessed using well-established self-report questionnaires in 41 nonclinical participants who subsequently completed ratings on worry intensity and burden on a portable device for 1week at seven times a day once every 2hours. Results showed significant associations of negative metacognitive beliefs and intolerance of uncertainty, but not positive metacognitive beliefs, with worry in everyday life. In multilevel regression analyses, a substantial proportion of variance of everyday worry could be accounted for by negative metacognitions over and above trait worry and daily hassles. Intolerance of uncertainty likewise emerged as a valid predictor when tested in isolation, but did not explain additional variance once negative metacognitions were controlled. The findings support current cognitive models of excessive worry and highlight the role of negative metacognitions. By using EMA to assess levels of worry in everyday life, they extend earlier findings focusing exclusively on retrospective questionnaire measures.

  15. Life history predicts risk of species decline in a stochastic world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Allen, Benjamin G; Dunham, Amy E; Asquith, Christopher M; Rudolf, Volker H W

    2012-07-07

    Understanding what traits determine the extinction risk of species has been a long-standing challenge. Natural populations increasingly experience reductions in habitat and population size concurrent with increasing novel environmental variation owing to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Recent studies show that a species risk of decline towards extinction is often non-random across species with different life histories. We propose that species with life histories in which all stage-specific vital rates are more evenly important to population growth rate may be less likely to decline towards extinction under these pressures. To test our prediction, we modelled declines in population growth rates under simulated stochastic disturbance to the vital rates of 105 species taken from the literature. Populations with more equally important vital rates, determined using elasticity analysis, declined more slowly across a gradient of increasing simulated environmental variation. Furthermore, higher evenness of elasticity was significantly correlated with a reduced chance of listing as Threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List. The relative importance of life-history traits of diverse species can help us infer how natural assemblages will be affected by novel anthropogenic and climatic disturbances.

  16. Fatigue Life Prediction of 2D Woven Ceramic-Matrix Composites at Room and Elevated Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longbiao, Li

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, the fatigue life of 2D woven ceramic-matrix composites, i.e., SiC/SiC, SiC/Si-N-C, SiC/Si-B4C, and Nextel 610™/Aluminosilicate, at room and elevated temperatures has been predicted using the micromechanics approach. An effective coefficient of the fiber volume fraction along the loading direction (ECFL) was introduced to describe the fiber architecture of preforms. The Budiansky-Hutchinson-Evans shear-lag model was used to describe the microstress field of the damaged composite considering fibers failure. The statistical matrix multicracking model and fracture mechanics interface debonding criterion were used to determine the matrix crack spacing and interface debonded length. The interface shear stress and fibers strength degradation model and oxidation region propagation model have been adopted to analyze the fatigue and oxidation effects on fatigue life of the composite, which is controlled by interface frictional slip and diffusion of oxygen gas through matrix multicrackings. Under cyclic fatigue loading, the fibers broken fraction was determined by combining the interface/fiber oxidation model, interface wear model and fibers statistical failure model at elevated temperatures, based on the assumption that the fiber strength is subjected to two-parameter Weibull distribution and the load carried by broken and intact fibers satisfy the Global Load Sharing (GLS) criterion. When the broken fibers fraction approaches to the critical value, the composites fatigue fractures. The fatigue life S-N curves of 2D SiC/SiC, SiC/Si-N-C, SiC/Si-B4C, and Nextel 610™/Aluminosilicate composites at room temperature and 800, 1000 and 1200 °C in air and steam have been predicted.

  17. REMAINING LIFE TIME PREDICTION OF BEARINGS USING K-STAR ALGORITHM – A STATISTICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. SATISHKUMAR

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of bearings is significant in reducing the down time of all rotating machineries. The increasing trend of bearing failures in recent times has triggered the need and importance of deployment of condition monitoring. There are multiple factors associated to a bearing failure while it is in operation. Hence, a predictive strategy is required to evaluate the current state of the bearings in operation. In past, predictive models with regression techniques were widely used for bearing lifetime estimations. The Objective of this paper is to estimate the remaining useful life of bearings through a machine learning approach. The ultimate objective of this study is to strengthen the predictive maintenance. The present study was done using classification approach following the concepts of machine learning and a predictive model was built to calculate the residual lifetime of bearings in operation. Vibration signals were acquired on a continuous basis from an experiment wherein the bearings are made to run till it fails naturally. It should be noted that the experiment was carried out with new bearings at pre-defined load and speed conditions until the bearing fails on its own. In the present work, statistical features were deployed and feature selection process was carried out using J48 decision tree and selected features were used to develop the prognostic model. The K-Star classification algorithm, a supervised machine learning technique is made use of in building a predictive model to estimate the lifetime of bearings. The performance of classifier was cross validated with distinct data. The result shows that the K-Star classification model gives 98.56% classification accuracy with selected features.

  18. A review of quality of life after predictive testing for and earlier identification of neurodegenerative diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Jane S; Nance, Martha; Kim, Ji-In; Carlozzi, Noelle E; Panegyres, Peter K; Erwin, Cheryl; Goh, Anita; McCusker, Elizabeth; Williams, Janet K

    2013-11-01

    The past decade has witnessed an explosion of evidence suggesting that many neurodegenerative diseases can be detected years, if not decades, earlier than previously thought. To date, these scientific advances have not provoked any parallel translational or clinical improvements. There is an urgency to capitalize on this momentum so earlier detection of disease can be more readily translated into improved health-related quality of life for families at risk for, or suffering with, neurodegenerative diseases. In this review, we discuss health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measurement in neurodegenerative diseases and the importance of these "patient reported outcomes" for all clinical research. Next, we address HRQOL following early identification or predictive genetic testing in some neurodegenerative diseases: Huntington disease, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, Dementia with Lewy bodies, frontotemporal dementia, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, prion diseases, hereditary ataxias, Dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy and Wilson's disease. After a brief report of available direct-to-consumer genetic tests, we address the juxtaposition of earlier disease identification with assumed reluctance toward predictive genetic testing. Forty-one studies examining health-related outcomes following predictive genetic testing for neurodegenerative disease suggested that (a) extreme or catastrophic outcomes are rare; (b) consequences commonly include transiently increased anxiety and/or depression; (c) most participants report no regret; (d) many persons report extensive benefits to receiving genetic information; and (e) stigmatization and discrimination for genetic diseases are poorly understood and policy and laws are needed. Caution is appropriate for earlier identification of neurodegenerative diseases but findings suggest further progress is safe, feasible and likely to advance clinical care.

  19. A Review of Quality of Life after Predictive Testing for and Earlier Identification of Neurodegenerative Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Jane S.; Nance, Martha; Kim, Ji-In; Carlozzi, Noelle E.; Panegyres, Peter K.; Erwin, Cheryl; Goh, Anita; McCusker, Elizabeth; Williams, Janet K.

    2013-01-01

    The past decade has witnessed an explosion of evidence suggesting that many neurodegenerative diseases can be detected years, if not decades, earlier than previously thought. To date, these scientific advances have not provoked any parallel translational or clinical improvements. There is an urgency to capitalize on this momentum so earlier detection of disease can be more readily translated into improved health-related quality of life for families at risk for, or suffering with, neurodegenerative diseases. In this review, we discuss health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measurement in neurodegenerative diseases and the importance of these “patient reported outcomes” for all clinical research. Next, we address HRQOL following early identification or predictive genetic testing in some neurodegenerative diseases: Huntington disease, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, Dementia with Lewy bodies, frontotemporal dementia, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, prion diseases, hereditary ataxias, Dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy and Wilson's disease. After a brief report of available direct-to-consumer genetic tests, we address the juxtaposition of earlier disease identification with assumed reluctance towards predictive genetic testing. Forty-one studies examining health related outcomes following predictive genetic testing for neurodegenerative disease suggested that (a) extreme or catastrophic outcomes are rare; (b) consequences commonly include transiently increased anxiety and/or depression; (c) most participants report no regret; (d) many persons report extensive benefits to receiving genetic information; and (e) stigmatization and discrimination for genetic diseases are poorly understood and policy and laws are needed. Caution is appropriate for earlier identification of neurodegenerative diseases but findings suggest further progress is safe, feasible and likely to advance clinical care. PMID:24036231

  20. A Critical Plane-energy Model for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Haoyang

    A new critical plane-energy model is proposed in this thesis for multiaxial fatigue life prediction of homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. Brief review of existing methods, especially on the critical plane-based and energy-based methods, are given first. Special focus is on one critical plane approach which has been shown to work for both brittle and ductile metals. The key idea is to automatically change the critical plane orientation with respect to different materials and stress states. One potential drawback of the developed model is that it needs an empirical calibration parameter for non-proportional multiaxial loadings since only the strain terms are used and the out-of-phase hardening cannot be considered. The energy-based model using the critical plane concept is proposed with help of the Mroz-Garud hardening rule to explicitly include the effect of non-proportional hardening under fatigue cyclic loadings. Thus, the empirical calibration for non-proportional loading is not needed since the out-of-phase hardening is naturally included in the stress calculation. The model predictions are compared with experimental data from open literature and it is shown the proposed model can work for both proportional and non-proportional loadings without the empirical calibration. Next, the model is extended for the fatigue analysis of heterogeneous materials integrating with finite element method. Fatigue crack initiation of representative volume of heterogeneous materials is analyzed using the developed critical plane-energy model and special focus is on the microstructure effect on the multiaxial fatigue life predictions. Several conclusions and future work is drawn based on the proposed study.

  1. A Hybrid Prognostic Approach for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-An Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-ion battery is a core component of many systems such as satellite, spacecraft, and electric vehicles and its failure can lead to reduced capability, downtime, and even catastrophic breakdowns. Remaining useful life (RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries before the future failure event is extremely crucial for proactive maintenance/safety actions. This study proposes a hybrid prognostic approach that can predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries using physical laws and data-driven modeling simultaneously. In this hybrid prognostic approach, the relevant vectors obtained with the selective kernel ensemble-based relevance vector machine (RVM learning algorithm are fitted to the physical degradation model, which is then extrapolated to failure threshold for estimating the RUL of the lithium-ion battery of interest. The experimental results indicated that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach can accurately predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries. Empirical comparisons show that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach using the selective kernel ensemble-based RVM learning algorithm performs better than the hybrid prognostic approaches using the popular learning algorithms of feedforward artificial neural networks (ANNs like the conventional backpropagation (BP algorithm and support vector machines (SVMs. In addition, an investigation is also conducted to identify the effects of RVM learning algorithm on the proposed hybrid prognostic approach.

  2. Recent developments on SMA actuators: predicting the actuation fatigue life for variable loading schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Robert W.; Lagoudas, Dimitris C.

    2017-04-01

    Shape memory alloys (SMAs), due to their ability to repeatably recover substantial deformations under applied mechanical loading, have the potential to impact the aerospace, automotive, biomedical, and energy industries as weight and volume saving replacements for conventional actuators. While numerous applications of SMA actuators have been flight tested and can be found in industrial applications, these actuators are generally limited to non-critical components, are not widely implemented and frequently one-off designs, and are generally overdesigned due to a lack of understanding of the effect of the loading path on the fatigue life and the lack of an accurate method for predicting actuator lifetimes. In recent years, multiple research efforts have increased our understanding of the actuation fatigue process of SMAs. These advances can be utilized to predict the fatigue lives and failure loads in SMA actuators. Additionally, these prediction methods can be implemented in order to intelligently design actuators in accordance with their fatigue and failure limits. In the following paper, both simple and complex thermomechanical loading paths have been considered. Experimental data was utilized from two material systems: equiatomic Nickel-Titanium and Nickelrich Nickel-Titanium.

  3. Life histories of hosts and pathogens predict patterns in tropical fungal plant diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Guzmán, Graciela; Heil, Martin

    2014-03-01

    Plant pathogens affect the fitness of their hosts and maintain biodiversity. However, we lack theories to predict the type and intensity of infections in wild plants. Here we demonstrate using fungal pathogens of tropical plants that an examination of the life histories of hosts and pathogens can reveal general patterns in their interactions. Fungal infections were more commonly reported for light-demanding than for shade-tolerant species and for evergreen rather than for deciduous hosts. Both patterns are consistent with classical defence theory, which predicts lower resistance in fast-growing species and suggests that the deciduous habit can reduce enemy populations. In our literature survey, necrotrophs were found mainly to infect shade-tolerant woody species whereas biotrophs dominated in light-demanding herbaceous hosts. Far-red signalling and its inhibitory effects on jasmonic acid signalling are likely to explain this phenomenon. Multiple changes between the necrotrophic and the symptomless endophytic lifestyle at the ecological and evolutionary scale indicate that endophytes should be considered when trying to understand large-scale patterns in the fungal infections of plants. Combining knowledge about the molecular mechanisms of pathogen resistance with classical defence theory enables the formulation of testable predictions concerning general patterns in the infections of wild plants by fungal pathogens. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  4. Thermomechanical fatigue – Damage mechanisms and mechanism-based life prediction methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    H-J Christ; A Jung; H J Maier; R Teteruk

    2003-02-01

    An existing extensive database on the isothermal and thermomechanical fatigue behaviour of high-temperature titanium alloy IMI 834 and dispersoidstrengthened aluminum alloy X8019 in SiC particle-reinforced as well as unreinforced conditions was used to evaluate both the adaptability of fracture mechanics approaches to TMF and the resulting predictive capabilities of determining material life by crack propagation consideration. Selection of the correct microstructural concepts was emphasised and these concepts were, then adjusted by using data from independent experiments in order to avoid any sort of fitting. It is shown that the cyclic -integral ($\\Delta J_{\\text{eff}}$ concept) is suitable to predict the cyclic lifetime for conditions where the total crack propagation rate is approximately identical to pure fatigue crack growth velocity. In the case that crack propagation is strongly affected by creep, the creep–fatigue damage parameter $\\Delta_{C\\ F}$ introduced by Riedel can be successfully applied. If environmental effects are very pronounced, the accelerating influence of corrosion on fatigue crack propagation can no longer implicitly be taken into account in the fatigue crack growth law. Instead, a linear combination of the crack growth rate contributions from plain fatigue (determined in vacuum) and from environmental attack is assumed and found to yield a satisfactory prediction, if the relevant corrosion process is taken into account.

  5. A multi-time scale approach to remaining useful life prediction in rolling bearing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Yuning; Yan, Ruqiang; Gao, Robert X.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a novel multi-time scale approach to bearing defect tracking and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, which integrates enhanced phase space warping (PSW) with a modified Paris crack growth model. As a data-driven method, PSW describes the dynamical behavior of the bearing being tested on a fast-time scale, whereas the Paris crack growth model, as a physics-based model, characterizes the bearing's defect propagation on a slow-time scale. Theoretically, PSW constructs a tracking metric by evaluating the phase space trajectory warping of the bearing vibration data, and establishes a correlation between measurement on a fast-time scale and defect growth variables on a slow-time scale. Furthermore, PSW is enhanced by a multi-dimensional auto-regression (AR) model for improved accuracy in defect tracking. Also, the Paris crack growth model is modified by a time-piecewise algorithm for real-time RUL prediction. Case studies performed on two run-to-failure experiments indicate that the developed technique is effective in tracking the evolution of bearing defects and accurately predict the bearing RUL, thus contributing to the literature of bearing prognosis .

  6. Prediction of transition to psychosis in patients with a clinical high risk for psychosis: a systematic review of methodology and reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studerus, E; Ramyead, A; Riecher-Rössler, A

    2017-05-01

    To enhance indicated prevention in patients with a clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis, recent research efforts have been increasingly directed towards estimating the risk of developing psychosis on an individual level using multivariable clinical prediction models. The aim of this study was to systematically review the methodological quality and reporting of studies developing or validating such models. A systematic literature search was carried out (up to 14 March 2016) to find all studies that developed or validated a clinical prediction model predicting the transition to psychosis in CHR patients. Data were extracted using a comprehensive item list which was based on current methodological recommendations. A total of 91 studies met the inclusion criteria. None of the retrieved studies performed a true external validation of an existing model. Only three studies (3.5%) had an event per variable ratio of at least 10, which is the recommended minimum to avoid overfitting. Internal validation was performed in only 14 studies (15%) and seven of these used biased internal validation strategies. Other frequently observed modeling approaches not recommended by methodologists included univariable screening of candidate predictors, stepwise variable selection, categorization of continuous variables, and poor handling and reporting of missing data. Our systematic review revealed that poor methods and reporting are widespread in prediction of psychosis research. Since most studies relied on small sample sizes, did not perform internal or external cross-validation, and used poor model development strategies, most published models are probably overfitted and their reported predictive accuracy is likely to be overoptimistic.

  7. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mould, R. F.; Lederman, M.; Tai, P.; Wong, J. K. M.

    2002-11-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  8. Eco-toxicological impact of “metals” on the aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem: A comparison between eight different methodologies for Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pizzol, Massimo; Christensen, Per; Schmidt, Jannick Andresen;

    2011-01-01

    concentrations. This study aims at expanding the discussion about how, and how differently, various methods for LCIA are estimating the impacts related to metals emissions, with a focus on eco-toxicological impacts. A comparison between eight different LCIA methods is presented in relative terms, using......The assessment of eco-toxicological impacts related to the emission of contaminants into the environment has peculiar characteristics in the context of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and many different Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methodologies can be used. However, previous studies recognized...... the presence of high uncertainties in the process, in particular when the analysis focuses on metals emissions. Metals are diverse inorganic substances relevant for their characteristic environmental chemistry, their high persistency into the environment and their toxicity at even low environmental...

  9. Eco-toxicological impact of “metals” on the aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem: A comparison between eight different methodologies for Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pizzol, Massimo; Christensen, Per; Schmidt, Jannick Andresen

    2011-01-01

    The assessment of eco-toxicological impacts related to the emission of contaminants into the environment has peculiar characteristics in the context of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and many different Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methodologies can be used. However, previous studies recognized...... concentrations. This study aims at expanding the discussion about how, and how differently, various methods for LCIA are estimating the impacts related to metals emissions, with a focus on eco-toxicological impacts. A comparison between eight different LCIA methods is presented in relative terms, using......, the characterization phase is critical in determining the disagreement between methods. However, some similarities were found: there is the tendency in most methods to associate the largest share of the total eco-toxicological impacts to metals. Theoretical and practical differences between methods are discussed...

  10. A New Approach to Predict the Fish Fillet Shelf-Life in Presence of Natural Preservative Agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuffrida, Alessandro; Giarratana, Filippo; Valenti, Davide; Muscolino, Daniele; Parisi, Roberta; Parco, Alessio; Marotta, Stefania; Ziino, Graziella; Panebianco, Antonio

    2017-04-13

    Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS) were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitatively the increase of shelf-life of fillets.

  11. Ambulation in adults with myelomeningocele. Is it possible to predict the level of ambulation in early life?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seitzberg, A.; Lind, M.; Biering-Sørensen, Fin

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the prediction of ambulation in adults with myelomeningocele from muscle strength testing and ambulation in early life. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty-two myelomeningocele (MMC) individuals at the age 18-37 years at follow-up were studied...... with muscle strength within the first year of life, 7 achieved the predicted ambulatory function, 6 had a better, and 7 a poorer function. Of 32 individuals with known muscle strength at the age of 5-8 years, 10 had function as predicted, 5 a better ambulatory function, and 17 had a poorer ambulation in adult...... life than predicted. Good strength in quadriceps muscles gave significant better prospect for adult walking. Of the 52 participants, 41 retained their ambulation status from 5-8 years of age. CONCLUSION: For MMC individuals with motor levels L3-L5, adult ambulatory function cannot be determined from...

  12. Impacts of "metals" on human health: a comparison between nine different methodologies for Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pizzol, Massimo; Christensen, Per; Schmidt, Jannick Andresen

    2011-01-01

    This paper looks into the differences and uncertainties in determining the impact of "metals" emissions on human health, in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA). Metals are diverse substances, with different properties and characteristics, considered important in LCIA because of their toxicity to ...

  13. Impacts of "metals" on human health: a comparison between nine different methodologies for Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pizzol, Massimo; Christensen, Per; Schmidt, Jannick Andresen;

    2011-01-01

    This paper looks into the differences and uncertainties in determining the impact of "metals" emissions on human health, in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA). Metals are diverse substances, with different properties and characteristics, considered important in LCIA because of their toxicity to ...

  14. Methodological issues in life cycle assessment for remanufactured products : a critical review of existing studies and an illustrative case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, Kristian

    2016-01-01

    Remanufacturing is an important strategy in the manufacturing industry. A life cycle assessment (LCA) is often used to measure whether, and to what extent, a remanufactured product is ‘better’ for the environment than a newly produced equivalent. In order to obtain valid and meaningful outcomes, LCA

  15. Quality of Work Life: Theoretical and Methodological Problems, and Presentation of a New Model and Measuring Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martel, Jean-Pierre; Dupuis, Gilles

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Ever since the concept of Quality of Work Life (QWL) was first used over 30 years ago, a range of definitions and theoretical constructs have succeeded each other with the aim of mitigating the many problems facing the concept. A historical overview of the concept of QWL is presented here. Given the lack of consensus concerning the…

  16. Development of an integrated methodology in support of remaining life assessment of Co-60 based gamma irradiation facilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varde, P. V.; Joshi, N. S.; Agarwal, Mayank; Shrivastava, Amit; Bandi, L. N.; Kohli, A. K.

    2011-01-01

    An integrated approach has been developed for the remaining life assessment of an irradiation facility. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) was performed for the plant to develop the quantified indicators of safety for various situations. PSA results were used to identify and prioritize the sy

  17. Quality of Work Life: Theoretical and Methodological Problems, and Presentation of a New Model and Measuring Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martel, Jean-Pierre; Dupuis, Gilles

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Ever since the concept of Quality of Work Life (QWL) was first used over 30 years ago, a range of definitions and theoretical constructs have succeeded each other with the aim of mitigating the many problems facing the concept. A historical overview of the concept of QWL is presented here. Given the lack of consensus concerning the…

  18. Sleep quality predicts quality of life in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzahit Simon-Tuval

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Steven M Scharf1*, Nimrod Maimon2*, Tzahit Simon-Tuval3, Barbara J Bernhard-Scharf4, Haim Reuveni2, Ariel Tarasiuk21Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care, University of Maryland, Baltimore, MD, USA; 2Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben-Gurion University, Beersheba, Israel; 3Guilford Glazer School of Business and Management, Ben Gurion University, Beersheba, Israel; 4Mt. Washington Pediatric Hospital, Baltimore, MD, USA; The study was performed at the Soroka University Medical Center, Beer Sheva, Israel*Drs Scharf and Maimon contributed equally to this manuscript.Purpose: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD patients may suffer from poor sleep and health-related quality of life. We hypothesized that disturbed sleep in COPD is correlated with quality of life.Methods: In 180 patients with COPD (forced expired volume in 1 second [FEV1] 47.6 ± 15.2% predicted, 77.8% male, aged 65.9 ± 11.7 years, we administered general (Health Utilities Index 3 and disease-specific (St George’s Respiratory questionnaires and an index of disturbed sleep (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index.Results: Overall scores indicated poor general (Health Utilities Index 3: 0.52 ± 0.38, disease-specific (St George’s: 57.0 ± 21.3 quality of life and poor sleep quality (Pittsburgh 11.0 ± 5.4. Sleep time correlated with the number of respiratory and anxiety symptoms reported at night. Seventy-seven percent of the patients had Pittsburg scores >5, and the median Pittsburgh score was 12. On multivariate regression, the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index was an independent predictor of both the Health Utilities Index 3 and the St George’s scores, accounting for 3% and 5%, respectively, of the scores. Only approximately 25% of the patients demonstrated excessive sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale >9.Conclusions: Most patients with COPD suffer disturbed sleep. Sleep quality was correlated with general and disease-specific quality of life. Only a minority of COPD patients

  19. Dynamic testing of learning potential in adults with cognitive impairments: A systematic review of methodology and predictive value.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boosman, H.; Bovend'Eerdt, T.J.; Visser-Meily, J.M.; Nijboer, T.C.W.; Van heugten, C.M.

    2016-01-01

    Dynamic testing includes procedures that examine the effects of brief training on test performance where pre- to post-training change reflects patients' learning potential. The objective of this systematic review was to provide clinicians and researchers insight into the concept and methodology of

  20. Bayesian techniques for fatigue life prediction and for inference in linear time dependent PDEs

    KAUST Repository

    Scavino, Marco

    2016-01-08

    In this talk we introduce first the main characteristics of a systematic statistical approach to model calibration, model selection and model ranking when stress-life data are drawn from a collection of records of fatigue experiments. Focusing on Bayesian prediction assessment, we consider fatigue-limit models and random fatigue-limit models under different a priori assumptions. In the second part of the talk, we present a hierarchical Bayesian technique for the inference of the coefficients of time dependent linear PDEs, under the assumption that noisy measurements are available in both the interior of a domain of interest and from boundary conditions. We present a computational technique based on the marginalization of the contribution of the boundary parameters and apply it to inverse heat conduction problems.

  1. Implicit theories about willpower predict self-regulation and grades in everyday life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Job, Veronika; Walton, Gregory M; Bernecker, Katharina; Dweck, Carol S

    2015-04-01

    Laboratory research shows that when people believe that willpower is an abundant (rather than highly limited) resource they exhibit better self-control after demanding tasks. However, some have questioned whether this "nonlimited" theory leads to squandering of resources and worse outcomes in everyday life when demands on self-regulation are high. To examine this, we conducted a longitudinal study, assessing students' theories about willpower and tracking their self-regulation and academic performance. As hypothesized, a nonlimited theory predicted better self-regulation (better time management and less procrastination, unhealthy eating, and impulsive spending) for students who faced high self-regulatory demands. Moreover, among students taking a heavy course load, those with a nonlimited theory earned higher grades, which was mediated by less procrastination. These findings contradict the idea that a limited theory helps people allocate their resources more effectively; instead, it is people with the nonlimited theory who self-regulate well in the face of high demands.

  2. Failure Mechanisms and Life Prediction of Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings under Thermal Gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zju, Dongming; Ghosn, Louis J.; Miller, Robert A.

    2008-01-01

    Ceramic thermal and environmental barrier coatings (TEBCs) will play an increasingly important role in gas turbine engines because of their ability to further raise engine temperatures. However, the issue of coating durability is of major concern under high-heat-flux conditions. In particular, the accelerated coating delamination crack growth under the engine high heat-flux conditions is not well understood. In this paper, a laser heat flux technique is used to investigate the coating delamination crack propagation under realistic temperature-stress gradients and thermal cyclic conditions. The coating delamination mechanisms are investigated under various thermal loading conditions, and are correlated with coating dynamic fatigue, sintering and interfacial adhesion test results. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the crack initiation and propagation driving forces for coating failure under high-heat-flux test conditions.

  3. Development and Life Prediction of Erosion Resistant Turbine Low Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coatings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dongming; Miller, Robert A.; Kuczmarski, Maria A.

    2010-01-01

    Future rotorcraft propulsion systems are required to operate under highly-loaded conditions and in harsh sand erosion environments, thereby imposing significant material design and durability issues. The incorporation of advanced thermal barrier coatings (TBC) in high pressure turbine systems enables engine designs with higher inlet temperatures, thus improving the engine efficiency, power density and reliability. The impact and erosion resistance of turbine thermal barrier coating systems are crucial to the turbine coating technology application, because a robust turbine blade TBC system is a prerequisite for fully utilizing the potential coating technology benefit in the rotorcraft propulsion. This paper describes the turbine blade TBC development in addressing the coating impact and erosion resistance. Advanced thermal barrier coating systems with improved performance have also been validated in laboratory simulated engine erosion and/or thermal gradient environments. A preliminary life prediction modeling approach to emphasize the turbine blade coating erosion is also presented.

  4. NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Housner, Jerrold M.

    1993-10-01

    NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life predictions are discussed. Topics covered include: structural failure analysis in concurrent engineering; accuracy of independent regional modeling demonstrated on classical example; functional interface method accurately joins incompatible finite element models; interface method for insertion of local detail modeling extended to curve pressurized fuselage window panel; interface concept for joining structural regions; motivation for coupled 2D-3D analysis; compression panel with discontinuous stiffener coupled 2D-3D model and axial surface strains at the middle of the hat stiffener; use of adaptive refinement with multiple methods; adaptive mesh refinement; and studies on quantity effect of bow-type initial imperfections on reliability of stiffened panels.

  5. Satellite Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Cycle Life Prediction with Novel Indirect Health Indicator Extraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haitao Liao

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Prognostics and remaining useful life (RUL estimation for lithium-ion batteries play an important role in intelligent battery management systems (BMS. The capacity is often used as the fade indicator for estimating the remaining cycle life of a lithium-ion battery. For spacecraft requiring high reliability and long lifetime, in-orbit RUL estimation and reliability verification on ground should be carefully addressed. However, it is quite challenging to monitor and estimate the capacity of a lithium-ion battery on-line in satellite applications. In this work, a novel health indicator (HI is extracted from the operating parameters of a lithium-ion battery to quantify battery degradation. Moreover, the Grey Correlation Analysis (GCA is utilized to evaluate the similarities between the extracted HI and the battery’s capacity. The result illustrates the effectiveness of using this new HI for fading indication. Furthermore, we propose an optimized ensemble monotonic echo state networks (En_MONESN algorithm, in which the monotonic constraint is introduced to improve the adaptivity of degradation trend estimation, and ensemble learning is integrated to achieve high stability and precision of RUL prediction. Experiments with actual testing data show the efficiency of our proposed method in RUL estimation and degradation modeling for the satellite lithium-ion battery application.

  6. Cyclic fatigue damage characteristics observed for simple loadings extended to multiaxial life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, David J.; Kurath, Peter

    1988-01-01

    Fully reversed uniaxial strain controlled fatigue tests were performed on smooth cylindrical specimens made of 304 stainless steel. Fatigue life data and cracking observations for uniaxial tests were compared with life data and cracking behavior observed in fully reversed torsional tests. It was determined that the product of maximum principle strain amplitude and maximum principle stress provided the best correlation of fatigue lives for these two loading conditions. Implementation of this parameter is in agreement with observed physical damage and it accounts for the variation of stress-strain response, which is unique to specific loading conditions. Biaxial fatigue tests were conducted on tubular specimens employing both in-phase and out-of-phase tension torsion cyclic strain paths. Cracking observations indicated that the physical damage which occurred in the biaxial tests was similar to the damage observed in uniaxial and torsional tests. The Smith, Watson, and Topper parameter was then extended to predict the fatigue lives resulting from the more complex loading conditions.

  7. Arrhenius equation modeling for the shelf life prediction of tomato paste containing a natural preservative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafari, Seid Mahdi; Ganje, Mohammad; Dehnad, Danial; Ghanbari, Vahid; Hajitabar, Javad

    2017-04-28

    The shelf life of tomato paste with microencapsulated olive leaf extract was compared with that of samples containing a commercial preservative by accelerated shelf life testing. Based on previous studies showing that olive leaf extract as a rich source of phenolic compounds can have antimicrobial properties, application of its encapsulated form to improve the storage stability of tomato paste is proposed here. Regarding total soluble solids, the control and the sample containing 1000 µg g(-1) sodium benzoate had the lowest (Q10  = 1.63) and highest (Q10  = 1.88) sensitivity to temperature changes respectively; also, the microencapsulated sample containing 1000 µg g(-1) encapsulated olive leaf extract (Q10  = 1.83) followed the sample containing 1000 µg g(-1) sodium benzoate in terms of the highest kinetic rates. In the case of consistency, the lowest and highest activation energies (Ea ) corresponded to samples containing 1000 µg g(-1) non-encapsulated olive leaf extract and 1000 µg g(-1) microencapsulated olive leaf extract respectively. Interestingly, samples containing microencapsulated olive leaf extract could maintain the original quality of the tomato paste very well, while those with non-encapsulated olive leaf extract rated the worst performance (among all specimens) in terms of maintaining their quality indices for a long time period. Overall, the shelf life equation was able to predict the consistency index of all tomato paste samples during long-time storage with high precision. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  8. Methodology and Assumptions of Contingency Shuttle Crew Support (CSCS) Calculations Using ISS Environmental Control and Life Support Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prokhorov, Kimberlee; Shkedi, Brienne

    2006-01-01

    The current International Space Station (ISS) Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) system is designed to support an ISS crew size of three people. The capability to expand that system to support nine crew members during a Contingency Shuttle Crew Support (CSCS) scenario has been evaluated. This paper describes how the ISS ECLS systems may be operated for supporting CSCS, and the durations expected for the oxygen supply and carbon dioxide control subsystems.

  9. Risk Identification and Assessment in PPP Infrastructure Projects using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and Life-Cycle Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available To fulfil the increasing demands of the public,Public Private Partnership (PPP has beenincreasingly used to procure infrastructureprojects, such as motor ways, bridges, tunnelsand railways. However, the risks involved inPPP projects are unique and dynamic due tolarge amount of investment and longconcession period. This paper aims to developa risk identification framework from theperspectives of project life cycle, and anassessment framework for risks associatedwith PPP project using fuzzy analyticalhierarchy process (AHP. First the paperreviews the current literature to identifycommon risks in PPP infrastructure projectsand classification methods used. The risksidentified from the literature were classifiedusing project life cycle perspectives. Followingthat, the paper presents the advantages offuzzy AHP. Furthermore, the paper provides aframework for assessment of risks in PPPprojects followed by an illustrative examplewhere the data was obtained from surveyquestionnaires. The paper concludes that risksassociated in PPP infrastructure projects areunique and therefore it is beneficial to classifythem from project life cycle perspectives, andthe proposed fuzzy AHP method is suitable forthe assessment of these risks.

  10. A 3.5 year diary study: Remembering and life story importance are predicted by different event characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomsen, Dorthe Kirkegaard; Jensen, Thomas; Holm, Tine; Olesen, Martin Hammershøj; Schnieber, Anette; Tønnesvang, Jan

    2015-11-01

    Forty-five participants described and rated two events each week during their first term at university. After 3.5 years, we examined whether event characteristics rated in the diary predicted remembering, reliving, and life story importance at the follow-up. In addition, we examined whether ratings of life story importance were consistent across a three year interval. Approximately 60% of events were remembered, but only 20% of these were considered above medium importance to life stories. Higher unusualness, rehearsal, and planning predicted whether an event was remembered 3.5 years later. Higher goal-relevance, importance, emotional intensity, and planning predicted life story importance 3.5 years later. There was a moderate correlation between life story importance rated three months after the diary and rated at the 3.5 year follow-up. The results suggest that autobiographical memory and life stories are governed by different mechanisms and that life story memories are characterized by some degree of stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Prediction and functional analysis of native disorder in proteins from the three kingdoms of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, J J; Sodhi, J S; McGuffin, L J; Buxton, B F; Jones, D T

    2004-03-26

    An automatic method for recognizing natively disordered regions from amino acid sequence is described and benchmarked against predictors that were assessed at the latest critical assessment of techniques for protein structure prediction (CASP) experiment. The method attains a Wilcoxon score of 90.0, which represents a statistically significant improvement on the methods evaluated on the same targets at CASP. The classifier, DISOPRED2, was used to estimate the frequency of native disorder in several representative genomes from the three kingdoms of life. Putative, long (>30 residue) disordered segments are found to occur in 2.0% of archaean, 4.2% of eubacterial and 33.0% of eukaryotic proteins. The function of proteins with long predicted regions of disorder was investigated using the gene ontology annotations supplied with the Saccharomyces genome database. The analysis of the yeast proteome suggests that proteins containing disorder are often located in the cell nucleus and are involved in the regulation of transcription and cell signalling. The results also indicate that native disorder is associated with the molecular functions of kinase activity and nucleic acid binding.

  12. Quality of life related to health chronic kidney disease: Predictive importance of mood and somatic symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perales Montilla, Carmen M; Duschek, Stefan; Reyes Del Paso, Gustavo A

    2016-01-01

    To compare the predictive capacity of self-reported somatic symptoms and mood (depression and anxiety) on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients with chronic renal disease. Data were obtained from 52 patients undergoing haemodialysis. Measures included a) the SF-36 health survey, b) the somatic symptoms scale revised (ESS-R) and c) the hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS). Multiple regression was the main method of statistical analysis. Patients exhibited HRQOL levels below normative values, with anxiety and depression prevalence at 36.5% and 27%, respectively. Mood was the strongest predictor of physical (β=-.624) and mental (β=-.709) HRQOL. Somatic symptoms were also associated with physical HRQOL, but their predictive value was weaker (β=-.270). These results indicate that mood is a superior predictor of the physical and mental components of HRQOL in patients compared with the number and severity of physical symptoms. The data underline the importance of assessing negative emotional states (depression and anxiety) in kidney patients as a basis for intervention, which may facilitate reduction of the impact of chronic renal disease on HRQOL. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. Damage-Induced Stresses and Remaining Service Life Predictions of Wire Ropes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Vukelic

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Wire ropes in marine applications often encounter relatively fast and noticeable wear, a result of the fatigue to which they are exposed coupled with harsh operational conditions. This paper addresses some of the aspects of fatigue damage that occur in wire ropes. Using the finite element method, stress and fatigue analysis of three different design types (6 × 7, 7 × 7, 8 × 7 of wire rope is performed. The size of the wire rope cross-section area is varied in order to simulate the progressive damage of the wires so that consequential stress levels and remaining fatigue life can be numerically predicted. The aim was to provide a better understanding of the mechanical behavior of damaged wire ropes under various conditions, since an appropriate choice of wire rope design could then be made from engineering and economic points of view. Additionally, potential failures can be predicted, resulting in effective maintenance and the avoidance of potential risks of rope failure, especially important regarding economical and safety aspects of transportation in the marine industry.

  14. Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Kandler A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Saxon, Aron R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, Matthew A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lundstrom, Blake R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-25

    Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System: Preprint Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are being deployed on the electrical grid for a variety of purposes, such as to smooth fluctuations in solar renewable power generation. The lifetime of these batteries will vary depending on their thermal environment and how they are charged and discharged. To optimal utilization of a battery over its lifetime requires characterization of its performance degradation under different storage and cycling conditions. Aging tests were conducted on commercial graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) Li-ion cells. A general lifetime prognostic model framework is applied to model changes in capacity and resistance as the battery degrades. Across 9 aging test conditions from 0oC to 55oC, the model predicts capacity fade with 1.4 percent RMS error and resistance growth with 15 percent RMS error. The model, recast in state variable form with 8 states representing separate fade mechanisms, is used to extrapolate lifetime for example applications of the energy storage system integrated with renewable photovoltaic (PV) power generation.

  15. Analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in remaining useful life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankararaman, S.; Daigle, M.; Saxena, A.; Goebel, K.

    This paper investigates the use of analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimate of components used in aerospace applications. The prediction of RUL is affected by several sources of uncertainty and it is important to systematically quantify their combined effect by computing the uncertainty in the RUL prediction in order to aid risk assessment, risk mitigation, and decision-making. While sampling-based algorithms have been conventionally used for quantifying the uncertainty in RUL, analytical algorithms are computationally cheaper and sometimes, are better suited for online decision-making. While exact analytical algorithms are available only for certain special cases (for e.g., linear models with Gaussian variables), effective approximations can be made using the first-order second moment method (FOSM), the first-order reliabilitymethod (FORM), and the inverse first-order reliabilitymethod (Inverse FORM). These methods can be used not only to calculate the entire probability distribution of RUL but also to obtain probability bounds on RUL. This paper explains these three methods in detail and illustrates them using the state-space model of a lithium-ion battery.

  16. Remaining useful life prediction based on the Wiener process for an aviation axial piston pump

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Xingjian; Lin Siru; Wang Shaoping; He Zhaomin; Zhang Chao

    2016-01-01

    An aviation hydraulic axial piston pump’s degradation from comprehensive wear is a typical gradual failure model. Accurate wear prediction is difficult as random and uncertain char-acteristics must be factored into the estimation. The internal wear status of the axial piston pump is characterized by the return oil flow based on fault mechanism analysis of the main frictional pairs in the pump. The performance degradation model is described by the Wiener process to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of the pump. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is performed by utilizing the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the initial parameters of the Wiener process while recursive estimation is conducted utilizing the Kalman filter method to estimate the drift coefficient of the Wiener process. The RUL of the pump is then calculated accord-ing to the performance degradation model based on the Wiener process. Experimental results indi-cate that the return oil flow is a suitable characteristic for reflecting the internal wear status of the axial piston pump, and thus the Wiener process-based method may effectively predicate the RUL of the pump.

  17. Neither Basic Life Support knowledge nor self-efficacy are predictive of skills among dental students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mac Giolla Phadraig, C; Ho, J D; Guerin, S; Yeoh, Y L; Mohamed Medhat, M; Doody, K; Hwang, S; Hania, M; Boggs, S; Nolan, A; Nunn, J

    2017-08-01

    Basic life support (BLS) is considered a core competence for the graduating dentist. This study aimed to measure BLS knowledge, self-efficacy and skills of undergraduate dental students in Dublin. This study consisted of a cross-sectional survey measuring BLS knowledge and self-efficacy, accompanied by a directly observed BLS skills assessment in a subsample of respondents. Data were collected in January 2014. Bivariate correlations between descriptive and outcome variables (knowledge, self-efficacy and skills) were tested using Pearson's chi-square. We included knowledge and self-efficacy as predictor variables, along with other variables showing association, into a binary logistic regression model with BLS skills as the outcome measure. One hundred and thirty-five students participated. Almost all (n = 133, 98.5%) participants had BLS training within the last 2 years. One hundred and four (77%) felt that they were capable of providing effective BLS (self-efficacy), whilst only 46 (34.1%) scored >80% of knowledge items correct. Amongst the skills (n = 85) subsample, 38.8% (n = 33) were found to pass the BLS skills assessment. Controlling for gender, age and skills assessor, the regression model did not identify a predictive relationship between knowledge or self-efficacy and BLS skills. Neither knowledge nor self-efficacy was predictive of BLS skills. Dental students had low levels of knowledge and skills in BLS. Despite this, their confidence in their ability to perform BLS was high and did not predict actual competence. There is a need for additional hands-on training, focusing on self-efficacy and BLS skills, particularly the use of AED. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Gaining access to the life-world of women suffering from stroke - methodological issues in clinical phenomenological studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvigne, Kari; Gjengedal, Eva; Kirkevold, Marit

    2002-01-01

    - the informant's openness in describing his/her life-world, and the sensitivity of the researcher as regards seeing and hearing what is conveyed in the situation. Both forms of openness can be influenced positively or negatively by many factors, including the physical and mental health of the informants......, the researcher's theoretical insight, her ability to communicate, and not least the relationship between the informant and the researcher. A relationship of power, for example, might reinforce gender differences, differences in cultural background, education and social status. Conclusion. Openness on the part...

  19. Qualification of a full plant nodalization for the prediction of the core exit temperature through a scaling methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freixa, J., E-mail: jordi.freixa-terradas@upc.edu; Martínez-Quiroga, V., E-mail: victor.martinez.quiroga@upc.edu; Reventós, F., E-mail: francesc.reventos@upc.edu

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • Core exit temperature is used in PWRs as an indication of core heat up. • Qualification of full scale nuclear reactors by means of a scaling methodology. • Scaling of RELAP5 calculations to full scale power plants. - Abstract: System codes and their necessary power plant nodalizations are an essential step in thermal hydraulic safety analysis. In order to assess the safety of a particular power plant, in addition to the validation and verification of the code, the nodalization of the system needs to be qualified. Since most existing experimental data come from scaled-down facilities, any qualification process must therefore address scale considerations. The Group of Thermal Hydraulic Studies at Technical University of Catalonia has developed a scaling-up methodology (SCUP) for the qualification of full-scale nodalizations through a systematic procedure based on the extrapolation of post-test simulations of Integral Test Facility experiments. In the present work, the SCUP methodology will be employed to qualify the nodalization of the AscóNPP, a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), for the reproduction of an important safety phenomenon which is the effectiveness of the Core Exit Temperature (CET) as an Accident Management (AM) indicator. Given the difficulties in placing measurements in the core region, CET measurements are used as a criterion for the initiation of safety operational procedures during accidental conditions in PWR. However, the CET response has some limitation in detecting inadequate core cooling simply because the measurement is not taken in the position where the cladding exposure occurs. In order to apply the SCUP methodology, the OECD/NEA ROSA-2 Test 3, an SBLOCA in the hot leg, has been selected as a starting point. This experiment was conducted at the Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF), a facility operated by the Japanese Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) and was focused on the assessment of the effectiveness of AM actions triggered by

  20. On-Line Flutter Prediction Tool for Wind Tunnel Flutter Testing using Parameter Varying Estimation Methodology Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology, Inc. (ZONA) proposes to develop an on-line flutter prediction tool for wind tunnel model using the parameter varying estimation (PVE) technique to...

  1. Use of Artificial Neural Network for Testing Effectiveness of Intelligent Computing Models for Predicting Shelf Life of Processed Cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GOYAL Kumar Gyanendra

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the suitability of artificial neural network (ANN models for predicting the shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8ºC. Soluble nitrogen, pH; standard plate count, yeast & mould count, and spore count were input variables, and sensory score was output variable. Mean square error, root mean square error, coefficient of determination and Nash - sutcliffo coefficient were used in order to test the effectiveness of the developed ANN models. Excellent agreement was found between experimental results and these mathematical parameters, thus confirming that ANN models are very effective in predicting the shelf life of processed cheese.

  2. Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: 'Kursk' submarine study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Baklanov

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.. Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1 probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2 forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning of the ``Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release (e.g. 1 Bq are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 10-11 (Bq/m2 over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 (Bq/m2 for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

  3. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Process Maps of Residual Stress and Distortion in a Laser Weld: A Combined CFD-FE Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Richard P.; Panwisawas, Chinnapat; Sovani, Yogesh; Perumal, Bama; Ward, R. Mark; Brooks, Jeffery W.; Basoalto, Hector C.

    2016-10-01

    Laser welding has become an important joining methodology within a number of industries for the structural joining of metallic parts. It offers a high power density welding capability which is desirable for deep weld sections, but is equally suited to performing thinner welded joints with sensible amendments to key process variables. However, as with any welding process, the introduction of severe thermal gradients at the weld line will inevitably lead to process-induced residual stress formation and distortions. Finite element (FE) predictions for weld simulation have been made within academia and industrial research for a number of years, although given the fluid nature of the molten weld pool, FE methodologies have limited capabilities. An improvement upon this established method would be to incorporate a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model formulation prior to the FE model, to predict the weld pool shape and fluid flow, such that details can be fed into FE from CFD as a starting condition. The key outputs of residual stress and distortions predicted by the FE model can then be monitored against the process variables input to the model. Further, a link between the thermal results and the microstructural properties is of interest. Therefore, an empirical relationship between lamellar spacing and the cooling rate was developed and used to make predictions about the lamellar spacing for welds of different process parameters. Processing parameter combinations that lead to regions of high residual stress formation and high distortion have been determined, and the impact of processing parameters upon the predicted lamellar spacing has been presented.

  4. Prediction of dosage-based parameters from the puff dispersion of airborne materials in urban environments using the CFD-RANS methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efthimiou, G. C.; Andronopoulos, S.; Bartzis, J. G.

    2017-02-01

    One of the key issues of recent research on the dispersion inside complex urban environments is the ability to predict dosage-based parameters from the puff release of an airborne material from a point source in the atmospheric boundary layer inside the built-up area. The present work addresses the question of whether the computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methodology can be used to predict ensemble-average dosage-based parameters that are related with the puff dispersion. RANS simulations with the ADREA-HF code were, therefore, performed, where a single puff was released in each case. The present method is validated against the data sets from two wind-tunnel experiments. In each experiment, more than 200 puffs were released from which ensemble-averaged dosage-based parameters were calculated and compared to the model's predictions. The performance of the model was evaluated using scatter plots and three validation metrics: fractional bias, normalized mean square error, and factor of two. The model presented a better performance for the temporal parameters (i.e., ensemble-average times of puff arrival, peak, leaving, duration, ascent, and descent) than for the ensemble-average dosage and peak concentration. The majority of the obtained values of validation metrics were inside established acceptance limits. Based on the obtained model performance indices, the CFD-RANS methodology as implemented in the code ADREA-HF is able to predict the ensemble-average temporal quantities related to transient emissions of airborne material in urban areas within the range of the model performance acceptance criteria established in the literature. The CFD-RANS methodology as implemented in the code ADREA-HF is also able to predict the ensemble-average dosage, but the dosage results should be treated with some caution; as in one case, the observed ensemble-average dosage was under-estimated slightly more than the acceptance criteria. Ensemble

  5. Report on three Genomes to Life Workshops: Data Infrastructure, Modeling and Simulation, and Protein Structure Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geist, GA

    2003-09-16

    On July 22, 23, 24, 2003, three one day workshops were held in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Each was attended by about 30 computational biologists, mathematicians, and computer scientists who were experts in the respective workshop areas The first workshop discussed the data infrastructure needs for the Genomes to Life (GTL) program with the objective to identify gaps in the present GTL data infrastructure and define the GTL data infrastructure required for the success of the proposed GTL facilities. The second workshop discussed the modeling and simulation needs for the next phase of the GTL program and defined how these relate to the experimental data generated by genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics. The third workshop identified emerging technical challenges in computational protein structure prediction for DOE missions and outlining specific goals for the next phase of GTL. The workshops were attended by representatives from both OBER and OASCR. The invited experts at each of the workshops made short presentations on what they perceived as the key needs in the GTL data infrastructure, modeling and simulation, and structure prediction respectively. Each presentation was followed by a lively discussion by all the workshop attendees. The following findings and recommendations were derived from the three workshops. A seamless integration of GTL data spanning the entire range of genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics will be extremely challenging but it has to be treated as the first-class component of the GTL program to assure GTL's chances for success. High-throughput GTL facilities and ultrascale computing will make it possible to address the ultimate goal of modern biology: to achieve a fundamental, comprehensive, and systematic understanding of life. But first the GTL community needs to address the problem of the massive quantities and increased complexity of biological data produced by experiments and computations. Genome-scale collection, analysis

  6. Review of time-dependent fatigue behavior and life prediction for 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. [LMFBR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booker, M.K.; Majumdar, S.

    1982-01-01

    Available data on creep-fatigue life and fracture behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel are reviewed. Whereas creep-fatigue interaction is important for Type 304 stainless steel, oxidation effects appear to dominate the time-dependent fatigue behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Four of the currently available predictive methods - the Linear Damage Rule, Frequency Separation Equation, Strain Range Partitioning Equation, and Damage Rate Equation - are evaluated for their predictive capability. Variations in the parameters for the various predictive methods with temperature, heat of material, heat treatment, and environment are investigated. Relative trends in the lives predicted by the various methods as functions of test duration, waveshape, etc., are discussed. The predictive methods will need modification in order to account for oxidation and aging effects in the 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Future tests that will emphasize the difference between the various predictive methods are proposed.

  7. Profiling crop pollinators: life history traits predict habitat use and crop visitation by Mediterranean wild bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisanty, Gideon; Mandelik, Yael

    2015-04-01

    Wild pollinators, bees in particular, may greatly contribute to crop pollination and provide a safety net against declines in commercial pollinators. However, the identity, life history traits, and environmental sensitivities of main crop pollinator species.have received limited attention. These are crucial for predicting pollination services of different communities and for developing management practices that enhance crop pollinators. We sampled wild bees in three crop systems (almond, confection sunflower, and seed watermelon) in a mosaic Israeli Mediterranean landscape. Bees were sampled in field/orchard edges and interiors, and in seminatural scrub surrounding the fields/orchards. We also analyzed land cover at 50-2500 m radii around fields/orchards. We used this data to distinguish crop from non-crop pollinators based on a set of life history traits (nesting, lecty, sociality, body size) linked to habitat preference and crop visitation. Bee abundance and species richness decreased from the surrounding seminatural habitat to the field/orchard interior, especially across the seminatural habitat-field edge ecotone. Thus, although rich bee communities were found near fields, only small fractions crossed the ecotone and visited crop flowers in substantial numbers. The bee assemblage in agricultural fields/orchards and on crop flowers was dominated by ground-nesting bees of the tribe Halictini, which tend to nest within fields. Bees' habitat preferences were determined mainly by nesting guild, whereas crop visitation was determined mainly by sociality. Lecty and body size also affected both measures. The percentage of surrounding seminatural habitat at 250-2500 m radii had a positive effect on wild bee diversity in field edges, for all bee guilds, while at 50-100 m radii, only aboveground nesters were positively affected. In sum, we found that crop and non-crop pollinators are distinguished by behavioral and morphological traits. Hence, analysis of life

  8. Appreciation and Life Satisfaction: Does Appreciation Uniquely Predict Life Satisfaction above Gender, Coping Skills, Self-Esteem, and Positive Affectivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halle, Joshua Solomon

    2015-01-01

    The primary purpose of this research was to examine whether appreciation explains variance in life satisfaction after controlling for gender, positive affectivity, self-esteem, and coping skills. Two hundred ninety-eight undergraduates went to the informed consent page of the online survey composed of the Appreciation Scale, the Satisfaction With…

  9. Environmental life quality perception in the city of general Daniel Cerri, Buenos Aires, Argentina: Proposal for a qualitative research methodology in Geography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvina Spagnolo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The behavioral and perceptual approach adopted by the geographical science may turn out to be very significant for territory environmental management. Such an approach does not intend to replace the qualitative approach, though it does propose their complementarity. The general aim of this paper is getting to know what the inhabitants of the city of General Daniel Cerri [Bahía Blanca, province of Buenos Aires, Argentina] believe the quality of their environmental life is. As for the methodology used, a population survey was conducted, which was representative of the population being studied. The survey was divided in three parts: a structural part, which will enable us to learn how the information possessed about the place is perceived; an evaluative section, which will show the way space is valued in connection with the decisions that should be made; and a preferential one, focused on the analysis of the preferences towards certain places

  10. Childhood self-control predicts smoking throughout life: Evidence from 21,000 cohort study participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Michael; Egan, Mark; Quigley, Jody; Delaney, Liam; Baumeister, Roy F

    2016-11-01

    Low self-control has been linked with smoking, yet it remains unclear whether childhood self-control underlies the emergence of lifetime smoking patterns. We examined the contribution of childhood self-control to early smoking initiation and smoking across adulthood. 21,132 participants were drawn from 2 nationally representative cohort studies; the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS) and the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS). Child self-control was teacher-rated at age 10 in the BCS and at ages 7 and 11 in the NCDS. Participants reported their smoking status and number of cigarettes smoked per day at 5 time-points in the BCS (ages 26-42) and 6 time-points in the NCDS (ages 23-55). Both studies controlled for socioeconomic background, cognitive ability, psychological distress, gender, and parental smoking; the NCDS also controlled for an extended set of background characteristics. Early self-control made a substantial graded contribution to (not) smoking throughout life. In adjusted regression models, a 1-SD increase in self-control predicted a 6.9 percentage point lower probability of smoking in the BCS, and this was replicated in the NCDS (5.2 point reduced risk). Adolescent smoking explained over half of the association between self-control and adult smoking. Childhood self-control was positively related to smoking cessation and negatively related to smoking initiation, relapse to smoking, and the number of cigarettes smoked in adulthood. This study provides strong evidence that low childhood self-control predicts an increased risk of smoking throughout adulthood and points to adolescent smoking as a key pathway through which this may occur. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Acoustic Prediction Methodology and Test Validation for an Efficient Low-Noise Hybrid Wing Body Subsonic Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawai, Ronald T. (Compiler)

    2011-01-01

    This investigation was conducted to: (1) Develop a hybrid wing body subsonic transport configuration with noise prediction methods to meet the circa 2007 NASA Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) N+2 noise goal of -52 dB cum relative to FAR 36 Stage 3 (-42 dB cum re: Stage 4) while achieving a -25% fuel burned compared to current transports (re :B737/B767); (2) Develop improved noise prediction methods for ANOPP2 for use in predicting FAR 36 noise; (3) Design and fabricate a wind tunnel model for testing in the LaRC 14 x 22 ft low speed wind tunnel to validate noise predictions and determine low speed aero characteristics for an efficient low noise Hybrid Wing Body configuration. A medium wide body cargo freighter was selected to represent a logical need for an initial operational capability in the 2020 time frame. The Efficient Low Noise Hybrid Wing Body (ELNHWB) configuration N2A-EXTE was evolved meeting the circa 2007 NRA N+2 fuel burn and noise goals. The noise estimates were made using improvements in jet noise shielding and noise shielding prediction methods developed by UC Irvine and MIT. From this the Quiet Ultra Integrated Efficient Test Research Aircraft #1 (QUIET-R1) 5.8% wind tunnel model was designed and fabricated.

  12. Prediction of Weld Quality of A Tungsten Inertr Gas Welded Mild Steel Pipe Joint Using Response Surface Methodology (Rsm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.U. Abhulimen

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The weld quality of tungsten inert gas (TIG welded joint has been investigated to identify the most economical weld parameters that will bring about optimum properties. Response surface methodology has been used in the optimization of the tungsten inert gas weld of mild steel pipes. Response surface methodology, based on the central composite face centered design was generated for the purpose of optimization of the weld quality.All the process parameters have desirability of 1. Tensile strength response for this solution have a desirability of 0.910595 and the yield strength of 0.59. Result showed that minimizing current and voltage an average tensile strength of 535.452MPa and yield strength of up to 408.74MPa can be achieved, while keeping gas flow rate and electrode diameter within the range of test. It was also deduced that tensile elongation of the TIG weld is not influenced by the process parameters selected for the purpose of this study.

  13. Theoretical and methodological notes on visual and audiovisual sources in researches on Life Stories and Self-referential Memorials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Helena Menna Barreto Abrahão

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The text explicits the reflection that bases the use of pictures, films and videofilms as sources in research on Life Stories and Self-re- ferential Memorials in Teachers’ Education. After refering to the researches in which we use this support since 1988, we work with two complementary pairs of theoretical dimensions of narratives in visual and audiovisual sources and their use in such empirical rese- arch: subjectivity/truth and space/time. These dimensions are worked grounded in Barthes (1984 to propose an interpretative effort of these sources to understand the essence of photography according to the photographer and the essence of photography according to the photographed person concocted to the essence of photography according to the researcher. The Barthesian constructs studium and punctum are applied to reading the narratives of the filmic and pho- tographic material, reaching the more radical expression of the Bar- thesian puctum: real or representational death of the referent that serves the photos and movies. The discussion of these dimensions for the analysis of (audio visual sources is complemented with the support of several other authors.

  14. Tool life prediction under multi-cycle loading conditions: A feasibility study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Xi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present research, the friction and wear behaviour of a hard coating were studied by using ball-on-disc tests to simulate the wear process of the coated tools for sheet metal forming process. The evolution of the friction coefficient followed a typical dual-plateau pattern, i.e. at the initial stage of sliding, the friction coefficient was relatively low, followed by a sharp increase due to the breakdown of the coatings after a certain number of cyclic dynamic loadings. This phenomenon was caused by the interactive response between the friction and wear from a coating tribo-system, which has not been addressed so far by metal forming researchers, and constant friction coefficient values are normally used in the FE simulations to represent the complex tribological nature at the contact interfaces. Meanwhile, most of the current FE simulations are single cycle, whereas most sheet metal forming operations are conducted as multi-cycle. Therefore, a novel friction/wear interactive friction model was developed to, simultaneously, characterise the evolutions of friction coefficient and the remaining thickness of the coating layer, to enable the wear life of coated tooling to be predicted. The friction model was then implemented into the FE simulation of a sheet metal forming process for feasibility study.

  15. Quality of life among people with multiple sclerosis: Replication of a three-factor prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Malachy; Rumrill, Phillip D; Roessler, Richard T

    2015-01-01

    This article presents a replication of Rumrill, Roessler, and Fitzgerald's 2004 analysis of a three-factor model of the impact of multiple sclerosis (MS) on quality of life (QOL). The three factors in the original model included illness-related, employment-related, and psychosocial adjustment factors. To test hypothesized relationships between QOL and illness-related, employment-related, and psychosocial variables using data from a survey of the employment concerns of Americans with MS (N = 1,839). An ex post facto, multiple correlational design was employed incorporating correlational and multiple regression analyses. QOL was positively related to educational level, employment status, job satisfaction, and job-match, and negatively related to number of symptoms, severity of symptoms, and perceived stress level. The three-factor model explained approximately 37 percent of the variance in QOL scores. The results of this replication confirm the continuing value of the three-factor model for predicting the QOL of adults with MS, and demonstrate the importance of medical, mental health, and vocational rehabilitation interventions and services in promoting QOL.

  16. A critical analysis of the Mises stress criterion used in frequency domain fatigue life prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Niesłony

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Multiaxial fatigue failure criteria are formulated in time and frequency domain. The number of frequency domain criteria is rather small and the most popular one is the equivalent von Mises stress criterion. This criterion was elaborated by Preumont and Piefort on the basis of well-known von Mises stress concept, first proposed by Huber in 1907, and well accepted by the scientific community and engineers. It is important to know, that the criterion was developed to determine the yield stress and material effort under static load. Therefore the direct use of equivalent von Mises stress criterion for fatigue life prediction can lead to some incorrectness of theoretical and practical nature. In the present study four aspects were discussed: influence of the value of fatigue strength of tension and torsion, lack of parallelism of the SN curves, abnormal behaviour of the criterion under biaxial tensioncompression and influence of phase shift between particular stress state components. Information contained in this article will help to prevent improper use of this criterion and contributes to its better understanding

  17. Effect of Notch Location on Fatigue Life Prediction of Strength Mismatched HSLA Steel Weldments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    S. Ravi; V. Balasubramanian; S. Nemat Nasser

    2004-01-01

    Welding of high strength low alloy steels (HSLA) involves usage of Iow, even and high strength filler materials (electrodes) than the parent material depending on the application of the welded structures and the availability of the filler material. In the present investigation, the fatigue crack growth behaviour of weld metal (WM) and heat affected zone (HAZ) regions of under matched (UM), equal matched (EM) and over matched (OM)joints has been studied. The base material used in this investigation is HSLA-80 steel of weldable grade. Shielded metal arc welding (SMAW) process has been used to fabricate the butt joints. Centre cracked tension (CCT) specimen has been used to evaluate the fatigue crack growth behaviour of the welded joints. Fatigue crack growth experiments have been conducted using servo hydraulic controlled fatigue testing machine at constant amplitude loading (R=0). A method has been proposed to predict the fatigue life of HSLA steel welds using fracture mechanics approach by incorporating influences of mismatch ratio (MMR) and notch location.

  18. Systematic methodology and property prediction of fatty systems for process design/analysis in the oil and fat industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Díaz Tovar, Carlos Axel; Ceriani, Roberta; Gani, Rafiqul;

    2010-01-01

    in the vegetable oil were defined. Basic and critical properties were then computed by means of appropriate property prediction software. Temperature dependant properties were modeled using and extending available correlations. The process model was developed through the PRO II commercial simulator and validated...

  19. Comparison of breeding value prediction for two traits in a Nellore-Angus crossbred population using different Bayesian modeling methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren L. Hulsman Hanna

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to 1 compare four models for breeding value prediction using genomic or pedigree information and 2 evaluate the impact of fixed effects that account for family structure. Comparisons were made in a Nellore-Angus population comprising F2, F3 and half-siblings to embryo transfer F2 calves with records for overall temperament at weaning (TEMP; n = 769 and Warner-Bratzler shear force (WBSF; n = 387. After quality control, there were 34,913 whole genome SNP markers remaining. Bayesian methods employed were BayesB ( π = 0.995 or 0.997 for WBSF or TEMP, respectively and BayesC (π = 0 and π, where π is the ideal proportion of markers not included. Direct genomic values (DGV from single trait Bayesian analyses were compared to conventional pedigree-based animal model breeding values. Numerically, BayesC procedures (using π had the highest accuracy of all models for WBSF and TEMP ( ρgg = 0.843 and 0.923, respectively, but BayesB had the least bias (regression of performance on prediction closest to 1, βy,x = 2.886 and 1.755, respectively. Accounting for family structure decreased accuracy and increased bias in prediction of DGV indicating a detrimental impact when used in these prediction methods that simultaneously fit many markers.

  20. A new approach to predict the fish fillet shelf-life in presence of natural preservative agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Giufffrida

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitatively the increase of shelf-life of fillets.

  1. Informed decision making about predictive DNA tests; arguments for more public visibility of personal deliberations about the good life.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenink, Marianne; van der Burg, Simone

    2009-01-01

    Since its advent, predictive DNA testing has been perceived as a technology that may have considerable impact on the quality of people’s life. The decision whether or not to use this technology is up to the individual client. However, to enable well considered decision making both the negative as

  2. Informed decision making about predictive DNA tests; arguments for more public visibility of personal deliberations about the good life.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenink, Marianne; van der Burg, Simone

    2009-01-01

    Since its advent, predictive DNA testing has been perceived as a technology that may have considerable impact on the quality of people’s life. The decision whether or not to use this technology is up to the individual client. However, to enable well considered decision making both the negative as we

  3. Health-related quality of life predicts long-term survival in patients with peripheral artery disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Issa, Samson M; Hoeks, Sanne E; Scholte op Reimer, Wilma J M;

    2010-01-01

    We examined whether health-related quality of life (HRQoL) predicts long-term survival in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) independent of established prognostic risk factors. In 2004, data on 711 consecutive patients with PAD undergoing vascular surgery were collected from 11 hospita...

  4. Enhancement of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to include the effect of surface albedo on climate change: Comparing black and white roofs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susca, Tiziana

    2012-04-01

    Traditionally, life cycle assessment (LCA) does not estimate a key property: surface albedo. Here an enhancement of the LCA methodology has been proposed through the development and employment of a time-dependent climatological model for including the effect of surface albedo on climate. The theoretical findings derived by the time-dependent model have been applied to the case study of a black and a white roof evaluated in the time-frames of 50 and 100 years focusing on the impact on global warming potential. The comparative life cycle impact assessment of the two roofs shows that the high surface albedo plays a crucial role in offsetting radiative forcings. In the 50-year time horizon, surface albedo is responsible for a decrease in CO(2)eq of 110-184 kg and 131-217 kg in 100 years. Furthermore, the white roof compared to the black roof, due to the high albedo, decreases the annual energy use of about 3.6-4.5 kWh/m(2).

  5. Development of a Novel Approach for Fatigue Life Prediction of Structural Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    11] for Inconel 718 under a similar loading condition. A kink around a fatigue life of 3xl05 cycles was noticed in the shear strain-life curve from...observed on AISI 304 stainless steel [10], Inconel 718 [11], 1045 steel [12], and an aluminum alloy [13]. However, no kink in the strain-life curves

  6. STRUCTURAL SCALE LIFE PREDICTION OF AERO STRUCTURES EXPERIENCING COMBINED EXTREME ENVIRONMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-01

    superiority of tomorrow’s USAF. These platforms experience long-duration, combined and intense, thermo-mechanical-acoustic loads over significant...analysts’ past experience , a heavy reliance on testing, and limited choices to tailor material attributes. 15. SUBJECT TERMS lifing, combined environment...6 Figure 3. Correlation Between Mean Life and Deviation of Mean life with the Addition of New Metallic Systems of

  7. Using DFT methodology for more reliable predictive models: Design of inhibitors of Golgi α-Mannosidase II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobovská, Adela; Tvaroška, Igor; Kóňa, Juraj

    2016-05-01

    Human Golgi α-mannosidase II (GMII), a zinc ion co-factor dependent glycoside hydrolase (E.C.3.2.1.114), is a pharmaceutical target for the design of inhibitors with anti-cancer activity. The discovery of an effective inhibitor is complicated by the fact that all known potent inhibitors of GMII are involved in unwanted co-inhibition with lysosomal α-mannosidase (LMan, E.C.3.2.1.24), a relative to GMII. Routine empirical QSAR models for both GMII and LMan did not work with a required accuracy. Therefore, we have developed a fast computational protocol to build predictive models combining interaction energy descriptors from an empirical docking scoring function (Glide-Schrödinger), Linear Interaction Energy (LIE) method, and quantum mechanical density functional theory (QM-DFT) calculations. The QSAR models were built and validated with a library of structurally diverse GMII and LMan inhibitors and non-active compounds. A critical role of QM-DFT descriptors for the more accurate prediction abilities of the models is demonstrated. The predictive ability of the models was significantly improved when going from the empirical docking scoring function to mixed empirical-QM-DFT QSAR models (Q(2)=0.78-0.86 when cross-validation procedures were carried out; and R(2)=0.81-0.83 for a testing set). The average error for the predicted ΔGbind decreased to 0.8-1.1kcalmol(-1). Also, 76-80% of non-active compounds were successfully filtered out from GMII and LMan inhibitors. The QSAR models with the fragmented QM-DFT descriptors may find a useful application in structure-based drug design where pure empirical and force field methods reached their limits and where quantum mechanics effects are critical for ligand-receptor interactions. The optimized models will apply in lead optimization processes for GMII drug developments.

  8. An Improved Methodology for Individualized Performance Prediction of Sleep-Deprived Individuals with the Two-Process Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    process model of sleep regulation for developing individualized biomathematical models that predict performance impairment for individuals subjected to total sleep loss. This new method advances our previous work in two important ways. First, it enables model customization to start as soon as the first performance measurement from an individual becomes available. This was achieved by optimally combining the performance information obtained from the individual’s performance measurements with a priori performance information using a Bayesian framework, while retaining

  9. A New Predictive Model Based on the ABC Optimized Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Approach for Predicting the Remaining Useful Life in Aircraft Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulino José García Nieto

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL estimation is considered as one of the most central points in the prognostics and health management (PHM. The present paper describes a nonlinear hybrid ABC–MARS-based model for the prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. Indeed, it is well-known that an accurate RUL estimation allows failure prevention in a more controllable way so that the effective maintenance can be carried out in appropriate time to correct impending faults. The proposed hybrid model combines multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems, with the artificial bee colony (ABC technique. This optimization technique involves parameter setting in the MARS training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. However, its use in reliability applications has not yet been widely explored. Bearing this in mind, remaining useful life values have been predicted here by using the hybrid ABC–MARS-based model from the remaining measured parameters (input variables for aircraft engines with success. A correlation coefficient equal to 0.92 was obtained when this hybrid ABC–MARS-based model was applied to experimental data. The agreement of this model with experimental data confirmed its good performance. The main advantage of this predictive model is that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the aircraft engine.

  10. Ares I-X Launch Abort System, Crew Module, and Upper Stage Simulator Vibroacoustic Flight Data Evaluation, Comparison to Predictions, and Recommendations for Adjustments to Prediction Methodology and Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew; Harrison, Phil

    2010-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Constellation Program (CxP) has identified a series of tests to provide insight into the design and development of the Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) and Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). Ares I-X was selected as the first suborbital development flight test to help meet CxP objectives. The Ares I-X flight test vehicle (FTV) is an early operational model of CLV, with specific emphasis on CLV and ground operation characteristics necessary to meet Ares I-X flight test objectives. The in-flight part of the test includes a trajectory to simulate maximum dynamic pressure during flight and perform a stage separation of the Upper Stage Simulator (USS) from the First Stage (FS). The in-flight test also includes recovery of the FS. The random vibration response from the ARES 1-X flight will be reconstructed for a few specific locations that were instrumented with accelerometers. This recorded data will be helpful in validating and refining vibration prediction tools and methodology. Measured vibroacoustic environments associated with lift off and ascent phases of the Ares I-X mission will be compared with pre-flight vibration predictions. The measured flight data was given as time histories which will be converted into power spectral density plots for comparison with the maximum predicted environments. The maximum predicted environments are documented in the Vibroacoustics and Shock Environment Data Book, AI1-SYS-ACOv4.10 Vibration predictions made using statistical energy analysis (SEA) VAOne computer program will also be incorporated in the comparisons. Ascent and lift off measured acoustics will also be compared to predictions to assess whether any discrepancies between the predicted vibration levels and measured vibration levels are attributable to inaccurate acoustic predictions. These comparisons will also be helpful in assessing whether adjustments to prediction methodologies are needed to improve agreement between the

  11. A New Approach for Reliability Life Prediction of Rail Vehicle Axle by Considering Vibration Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meral Bayraktar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of vibration on the axle has been considered. Vibration measurements at different speeds have been performed on the axle of a running rail vehicle to figure out displacement, acceleration, time, and frequency response. Based on the experimental works, equivalent stress has been used to find out life of the axles for 90% and 10% reliability. Calculated life values of the rail vehicle axle have been compared with the real life data and it is found that the life of a vehicle axle taking into account the vibration effects is in good agreement with the real life of the axle.

  12. Prediction of Quality of Life of Non–Insulin-Dependent Diabetic Patients Based on Perceived Social Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Shareh

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The objective of this study was to predic quality of life based on perceived social support components in non–insulin-dependent diabetic patients.Materials and Method: Fifty patients with non–insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus from Al-Zahra diabetic center in Shiraz participated in a cross-sectional study via survey instrument. All subjects completed multidimensional scale of perceived social support (MSPSS and world health organization quality of life- brief (WHOQOL-BREF questionnaires. Results: On the basis of stepwise multiple regression analysis friends and family dimensions of perceived social support were the best predictors of the quality of life and its dimensions (p<0.01.Conclusion: Friends and family dimensions of perceived social support have significant contributions in predicting quality of life of patients with non–insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

  13. CMC Property Variability and Life Prediction Methods for Turbine Engine Component Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheplak, Matthew L.

    2004-01-01

    The ever increasing need for lower density and higher temperature-capable materials for aircraft engines has led to the development of Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs). Today's aircraft engines operate with >3000"F gas temperatures at the entrance to the turbine section, but unless heavily cooled, metallic components cannot operate above approx.2000 F. CMCs attempt to push component capability to nearly 2700 F with much less cooling, which can help improve engine efficiency and performance in terms of better fuel efficiency, higher thrust, and reduced emissions. The NASA Glenn Research Center has been researching the benefits of the SiC/SiC CMC for engine applications. A CMC is made up of a matrix material, fibers, and an interphase, which is a protective coating over the fibers. There are several methods or architectures in which the orientation of the fibers can be manipulated to achieve a particular material property objective as well as a particular component geometric shape and size. The required shape manipulation can be a limiting factor in the design and performance of the component if there is a lack of bending capability of the fiber as making the fiber more flexible typically sacrifices strength and other fiber properties. Various analysis codes are available (pcGINA, CEMCAN) that can predict the effective Young's Moduli, thermal conductivities, coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE), and various other properties of a CMC. There are also various analysis codes (NASAlife) that can be used to predict the life of CMCs under expected engine service conditions. The objective of this summer study is to utilize and optimize these codes for examining the tradeoffs between CMC properties and the complex fiber architectures that will be needed for several different component designs. For example, for the pcGINA code, there are six variations of architecture available. Depending on which architecture is analyzed, the user is able to specify the fiber tow size, tow

  14. Does maternal oral health predict child oral health-related quality of life in adulthood?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broadbent Jonathan M

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A parental/family history of poor oral health may influence the oral-health-related quality of life (OHRQOL of adults. Objectives To determine whether the oral health of mothers of young children can predict the OHRQOL of those same children when they reach adulthood. Methods Oral examination and interview data from the Dunedin Study's age-32 assessment, as well as maternal self-rated oral health data from the age-5 assessment were used. The main outcome measure was study members' short-form Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14 at age 32. Analyses involved 827 individuals (81.5% of the surviving cohort dentally examined at both ages, who also completed the OHIP-14 questionnaire at age 32, and whose mothers were interviewed at the age-5 assessment. Results There was a consistent gradient of relative risk across the categories of maternal self-rated oral health status at the age-5 assessment for having one or more impacts in the overall OHIP-14 scale, whereby risk was greatest among the study members whose mothers rated their oral health as "poor/edentulous", and lowest among those with an "excellent/fairly good" rating. In addition, there was a gradient in the age-32 mean OHIP-14 score, and in the mean number of OHIP-14 impacts at age 32 across the categories of maternal self-rated oral health status. The higher risk of having one or more impacts in the psychological discomfort subscale, when mother rated her oral health as "poor/edentulous", was statistically significant. Conclusions These data suggest that maternal self-rated oral health when a child is young has a bearing on that child's OHRQOL almost three decades later. The adult offspring of mothers with poor self-rated oral health had poorer OHRQOL outcomes, particularly in the psychological discomfort subscale.

  15. Quality of life predicts outcome in a heart failure disease management program.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Loughlin, Christina

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: Chronic heart failure (HF) is associated with a poor Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL). HRQoL has been shown to be a predictor of HF outcomes however, variability in the study designs make it difficult to apply these findings to a clinical setting. The aim of this study was to establish if HRQoL is a predictor of long-term mortality and morbidity in HF patients followed-up in a disease management program (DMP) and if a HRQoL instrument could be applied to aid in identifying high-risk patients within a clinical context. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of HF patients attending a DMP with 18+\\/-9 months follow-up. Clinical and biochemical parameters were recorded on discharge from index HF admission and HRQoL measures were recorded at 2 weeks post index admission. RESULTS: 225 patients were enrolled into the study (mean age=69+\\/-12 years, male=61%, and 78%=systolic HF). In multivariable analysis, all dimensions of HRQoL (measured by the Minnesota Living with HF Questionnaire) were independent predictors of both mortality and readmissions particularly in patients <80 years. A significant interaction between HRQoL and age (Total((HRQoL))age: p<0.001) indicated that the association of HRQoL with outcomes diminished as age increased. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that HRQoL is a predictor of outcome in HF patients managed in a DMP. Younger patients (<65 years) with a Total HRQoL score of > or =50 are at high risk of an adverse outcome. In older patients > or =80 years HRQoL is not useful in predicting outcome.

  16. Predictive factors for body weight loss and its impact on quality of life following gastrectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanabe, Kazuaki; Takahashi, Masazumi; Urushihara, Takashi; Nakamura, Yoichi; Yamada, Makoto; Lee, Sang-Woong; Tanaka, Shinnosuke; Miki, Akira; Ikeda, Masami; Nakada, Koji

    2017-07-14

    To determine the predictive factors and impact of body weight loss on postgastrectomy quality of life (QOL). We applied the newly developed integrated questionnaire postgastrectomy syndrome assessment scale-45, which consists of 45 items including those from the Short Form-8 and Gastrointestinal Symptom Rating Scale instruments, in addition to 22 newly selected items. Between July 2009 and December 2010, completed questionnaires were received from 2520 patients with curative resection at 1 year or more after having undergone one of six types of gastrectomy for Stage I gastric cancer at one of 52 participating institutions. Of those, we analyzed 1777 eligible questionnaires from patients who underwent total gastrectomy with Roux-en-Y procedure (TGRY) or distal gastrectomy with Billroth-I (DGBI) or Roux-en-Y (DGRY) procedures. A total of 393, 475 and 909 patients underwent TGRY, DGRY, and DGBI, respectively. The mean age of patients was 62.1 ± 9.2 years. The mean time interval between surgery and retrieval of the questionnaires was 37.0 ± 26.8 mo. On multiple regression analysis, higher preoperative body mass index, total gastrectomy, and female sex, in that order, were independent predictors of greater body weight loss after gastrectomy. There was a significant difference in the degree of weight loss (P 25 kg/m(2)). Multiple linear regression analysis identified lower postoperative body mass index, rather than greater body weight loss postoperatively, as a certain factor for worse QOL (P weight after gastrectomy, the impact of body weight loss on QOL is unexpectedly small.

  17. Predicting quality of life in multiple sclerosis: accounting for physical disability, fatigue, cognition, mood disorder, personality, and behavior change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedict, Ralph H B; Wahlig, Elizabeth; Bakshi, Rohit; Fishman, Inna; Munschauer, Frederick; Zivadinov, Robert; Weinstock-Guttman, Bianca

    2005-04-15

    Health-related quality of life (HQOL) is poor in multiple sclerosis (MS) but the clinical precipitants of the problem are not well understood. Previous correlative studies demonstrated relationships between various clinical parameters and diminished HQOL in MS. Unfortunately, these studies failed to account for multiple predictors in the same analysis. We endeavored to determine what clinical parameters account for most variance in predicting HQOL, and employability, while accounting for disease course, physical disability, fatigue, cognition, mood disorder, personality, and behavior disorder. In 120 MS patients, we measured HQOL (MS Quality of Life-54) and vocational status (employed vs. disabled) and then conducted detailed clinical testing. Data were analyzed by linear and logistic regression methods. MS patients reported lower HQOL (pPhysical HQOL was predicted by fatigue, depression, and physical disability. Mental HQOL was associated with only depression and fatigue. In contrast, vocational status was predicted by three cognitive tests, conscientiousness, and disease duration (p<0.05). Thus, for the first time, we predicted HQOL in MS while accounting for measures from these many clinical domains. We conclude that self-report HQOL indices are most strongly predicted by measures of depression, whereas vocational status is predicted primarily by objective measures of cognitive function. The findings highlight core clinical problems that merit early identification and further research regarding the development of effective treatment.

  18. A Novel Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model for P92 Steel on the Basis of Cyclic Strain Energy Density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Dongmei; Ren, Jianxing; Zhang, Lai-Chang

    2016-09-01

    A novel creep-fatigue life prediction model was deduced based on an expression of the strain energy density in this study. In order to obtain the expression of the strain energy density, the load-controlled creep-fatigue (CF) tests of P92 steel at 873 K were carried out. Cyclic strain of P92 steel under CF load was divided into elastic strain, applying and unloading plastic strain, creep strain, and anelastic strain. Analysis of cyclic strain indicates that the damage process of P92 steel under CF load consists of three stages, similar to pure creep. According to the characteristics of the strains above, an expression was defined to describe the strain energy density for each cycle. The strain energy density at stable stage is inversely proportional to the total strain energy density dissipated by P92 steel. However, the total strain energy densities under different test conditions are proportional to the fatigue life. Therefore, the expression of the strain energy density at stable stage was chosen to predict the fatigue life. The CF experimental data on P92 steel were employed to verify the rationality of the novel model. The model obtained from the load-controlled CF test of P92 steel with short holding time could predict the fatigue life of P92 steel with long holding time.

  19. A study on the fatigue life prediction of the various gas-welded joints using a probabilistic statistics technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Seung Yeb; Bae, Dong Ho

    2011-02-01

    Gas welding is a very important and useful technology in the fabrication of railroad cars and commercial vehicle structures. However, since the fatigue strength of gas-welded joints is considerably lower than that of the base of material due to stress concentration at the weld, the fatigue strength assessment of gas-welded joints is very important for the reliability and durability of railroad cars and establishment of criteria for long-life fatigue design. In this study, after evaluating the fatigue strength using a simulated specimen that satisfies not only the structural characteristics but also the mechanical condition of the actual structure, the fatigue design criteria are determined and applied to the fatigue design of the gas welded body structure. To save time and cost for the fatigue design, we investigated an accelerated life-prediction using a probabilistic statistics technique based on the theory of statistical reliability. The (Δσ a )R-Nf relationship was obtained from actual fatigue test data, including welding residual stress. On the basis of these results, the (Δσa)R-(Nf)ALP relationship that was derived from statistical probability analysis was compared with the actual fatigue test data. Therefore, it is expected that the accelerated life prediction will provide a useful method of determining the criteria for fatigue design and predicting a specific target life.

  20. A Novel Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model for P92 Steel on the Basis of Cyclic Strain Energy Density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Dongmei; Ren, Jianxing; Zhang, Lai-Chang

    2016-11-01

    A novel creep-fatigue life prediction model was deduced based on an expression of the strain energy density in this study. In order to obtain the expression of the strain energy density, the load-controlled creep-fatigue (CF) tests of P92 steel at 873 K were carried out. Cyclic strain of P92 steel under CF load was divided into elastic strain, applying and unloading plastic strain, creep strain, and anelastic strain. Analysis of cyclic strain indicates that the damage process of P92 steel under CF load consists of three stages, similar to pure creep. According to the characteristics of the strains above, an expression was defined to describe the strain energy density for each cycle. The strain energy density at stable stage is inversely proportional to the total strain energy density dissipated by P92 steel. However, the total strain energy densities under different test conditions are proportional to the fatigue life. Therefore, the expression of the strain energy density at stable stage was chosen to predict the fatigue life. The CF experimental data on P92 steel were employed to verify the rationality of the novel model. The model obtained from the load-controlled CF test of P92 steel with short holding time could predict the fatigue life of P92 steel with long holding time.