WorldWideScience

Sample records for life prediction methodologies

  1. Life Prediction Methodologies for Aerospace Materials

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ashbaugh, N. E; Brockman, R. A; Buchanan, D. J; Hartman, G. A; Huston, A. L; Li, K; Porter, W. J

    2004-01-01

    Superalloys IN-100, Ren 88DT, Waspaloy, and titanium alloys were investigated. For life-limiting responses in superalloys, highly localized stress-deformation behaviors associated with both typical and unusual defects were developed...

  2. Methodology for formulating predictions of stress corrosion cracking life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamauchi, Kiyoshi; Hattori, Shigeo; Shindo, Takenori; Kuniya, Jiro

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for formulating predictions to evaluate the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) potential of each light-water reactor component, where an index is introduced as a life index or F index. The index denotes the SCC time ratio of a given SCC system to be evaluated against a reference SCC system. The life index is expressed by the products of several subdivided life indexes, which correspond to each SCC influencing factor. Each subdivided life index is constructed as a function containing the influencing factor variable, obtained by analyzing experimental SCC life data. The methodology was termed the subdivided factor method. Application of the life index to SCC life data and field data showed that it was effective for evaluating the SCC potential, i.e. the SCC life. Accordingly, the proposed methodology can potentially describe a phenomenon expressed by a function which consists of the variables of several influencing factors whether there are formulae which unite as a physical model or not. ((orig.))

  3. Recent Methodologies for Creep Deformation Analysis and Its Life Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Park, Jae-Young; Iung

    2016-01-01

    To design the high-temperature creeping materials, various creep data are needed for codification, as follows: i) stress vs. creep rupture time for base metals and weldments (average and minimum), ii) stress vs. time to 1% total strain (average), iii) stress vs. time to onset of tertiary creep (minimum), and iv) constitutive eqns. for conducting time- and temperature- dependent stress-strain (average), and v) isochronous stress-strain curves (average). Also, elevated temperature components such as those used in modern power generation plant are designed using allowable stress under creep conditions. The allowable stress is usually estimated on the basis of up to 10"5 h creep rupture strength at the operating temperature. The master curve of the “sinh” function was found to have a wider acceptance with good flexibility in the low stress ranges beyond the experimental data. The proposed multi-C method in the LM parameter revealed better life prediction than a single-C method. These improved methodologies can be utilized to accurately predict the long-term creep life or strength of Gen-IV nuclear materials which are designed for life span of 60 years

  4. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E. [Allison Engine Co., Indianapolis, IN (United States)

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  5. Comparing Structural Identification Methodologies for Fatigue Life Prediction of a Highway Bridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sai G. S. Pai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate measurement-data interpretation leads to increased understanding of structural behavior and enhanced asset-management decision making. In this paper, four data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, traditional Bayesian model updating, modified Bayesian model updating (with an L∞-norm-based Gaussian likelihood function, and error-domain model falsification (EDMF, a method that rejects models that have unlikely differences between predictions and measurements, are compared. In the modified Bayesian model updating methodology, a correction is used in the likelihood function to account for the effect of a finite number of measurements on posterior probability–density functions. The application of these data-interpretation methodologies for condition assessment and fatigue life prediction is illustrated on a highway steel–concrete composite bridge having four spans with a total length of 219 m. A detailed 3D finite-element plate and beam model of the bridge and weigh-in-motion data are used to obtain the time–stress response at a fatigue critical location along the bridge span. The time–stress response, presented as a histogram, is compared to measured strain responses either to update prior knowledge of model parameters using residual minimization and Bayesian methodologies or to obtain candidate model instances using the EDMF methodology. It is concluded that the EDMF and modified Bayesian model updating methodologies provide robust prediction of fatigue life compared with residual minimization and traditional Bayesian model updating in the presence of correlated non-Gaussian uncertainty. EDMF has additional advantages due to ease of understanding and applicability for practicing engineers, thus enabling incremental asset-management decision making over long service lives. Finally, parallel implementations of EDMF using grid sampling have lower computations times than implementations using adaptive sampling.

  6. Probabilistic fatigue life prediction methodology for notched components based on simple smooth fatigue tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Z. R.; Li, Z. X. [Dept.of Engineering Mechanics, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Engineering Mechanics, Southeast University, Nanjing (China); Hu, X. T.; Xin, P. P.; Song, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Mechanics and Control of Mechanical Structures, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing (China)

    2017-01-15

    The methodology of probabilistic fatigue life prediction for notched components based on smooth specimens is presented. Weakestlink theory incorporating Walker strain model has been utilized in this approach. The effects of stress ratio and stress gradient have been considered. Weibull distribution and median rank estimator are used to describe fatigue statistics. Fatigue tests under different stress ratios were conducted on smooth and notched specimens of titanium alloy TC-1-1. The proposed procedures were checked against the test data of TC-1-1 notched specimens. Prediction results of 50 % survival rate are all within a factor of two scatter band of the test results.

  7. Life prediction methodology for thermal-mechanical fatigue and elevated temperature creep design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annigeri, Ravindra

    Nickel-based superalloys are used for hot section components of gas turbine engines. Life prediction techniques are necessary to assess service damage in superalloy components resulting from thermal-mechanical fatigue (TMF) and elevated temperature creep. A new TMF life model based on continuum damage mechanics has been developed and applied to IN 738 LC substrate material with and without coating. The model also characterizes TMF failure in bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay and NiAl aluminide coatings. The inputs to the TMF life model are mechanical strain range, hold time, peak cycle temperatures and maximum stress measured from the stabilized or mid-life hysteresis loops. A viscoplastic model is used to predict the stress-strain hysteresis loops. A flow rule used in the viscoplastic model characterizes the inelastic strain rate as a function of the applied stress and a set of three internal stress variables known as back stress, drag stress and limit stress. Test results show that the viscoplastic model can reasonably predict time-dependent stress-strain response of the coated material and stress relaxation during hold times. In addition to the TMF life prediction methodology, a model has been developed to characterize the uniaxial and multiaxial creep behavior. An effective stress defined as the applied stress minus the back stress is used to characterize the creep recovery and primary creep behavior. The back stress has terms representing strain hardening, dynamic recovery and thermal recovery. Whenever the back stress is greater than the applied stress, the model predicts a negative creep rate observed during multiple stress and multiple temperature cyclic tests. The model also predicted the rupture time and the remaining life that are important for life assessment. The model has been applied to IN 738 LC, Mar-M247, bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay coating and 316 austenitic stainless steel. The proposed model predicts creep response with a reasonable accuracy for wide range of

  8. Thermal aging of some decommissioned reactor components and methodology for life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, H.M.

    1989-03-01

    Since a realistic aging of cast stainless steel components for end-of-life or life-extension conditions cannot be produced, it is customary to simulate the thermal aging embrittlement by accelerated aging at ∼400 degree C. In this investigation, field components obtained from decommissioned reactors have been examined after service up to 22 yr to provide a benchmark of the laboratory simulation. The primary and secondary aging processes were found to be identical to those of the laboratory-aged specimens, and the kinetic characteristics were also similar. The extent of the aging embrittlement processes and other key factors that are known to influence the embrittlement kinetics have been compared for the decommissioned reactor components and materials aged under accelerated conditions. On the basis of the study, a mechanistic understanding of the causes of the complex behavior in kinetics and activation energy of aging (i.e., the temperature dependence of aging embrittlement between the accelerated and reactor-operating conditions) is presented. A mechanistic correlation developed thereon is compared with a number of available empirical correlations to provide an insight for development of a better methodology of life prediction of the reactor components. 18 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

  9. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T. [Allied-Signal Aerospace Co., Phoenix, AZ (United States). Garrett Engine Div.] [and others

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  10. Methodology for predicting the life of waste-package materials, and components using multifactor accelerated life tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.; Cote, R.W.

    1983-09-01

    Accelerated life tests are essential for estimating the service life of waste-package materials and components. A recommended methodology for generating accelerated life tests is described in this report. The objective of the methodology is to define an accelerated life test program that is scientifically and statistically defensible. The methodology is carried out using a select team of scientists and usually requires 4 to 12 man-months of effort. Specific agendas for the successive meetings of the team are included in the report for use by the team manager. The agendas include assignments for the team scientists and a different set of assignments for the team statistician. The report also includes descriptions of factorial tables, hierarchical trees, and associated mathematical models that are proposed as technical tools to guide the efforts of the design team

  11. Comparing methodologies for structural identification and fatigue life prediction of a highway bridge

    OpenAIRE

    Pai, Sai Ganesh Sarvotham; Nussbaumer, Alain; Smith, Ian F. C.

    2018-01-01

    Accurate measurement-data interpretation leads to increased understanding of structural behavior and enhanced asset-management decision making. In this paper, four data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, traditional Bayesian model updating, modified Bayesian model updating (with an L∞-norm-based Gaussian likelihood function), and error-domain model falsification (EDMF), a method that rejects models that have unlikely differences between predictions and measurements, are comp...

  12. Comparing Structural Identification Methodologies for Fatigue Life Prediction of a Highway Bridge

    OpenAIRE

    Pai, Sai G.S.; Nussbaumer, Alain; Smith, Ian F.C.

    2018-01-01

    Accurate measurement-data interpretation leads to increased understanding of structural behavior and enhanced asset-management decision making. In this paper, four data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, traditional Bayesian model updating, modified Bayesian model updating (with an L∞-norm-based Gaussian likelihood function), and error-domain model falsification (EDMF), a method that rejects models that have unlikely differences between predictions and measurements, are comp...

  13. On the development of life prediction methodologies for the failure of human teeth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nalla, R.K.; Imbeni, V.; Kinney, J.H.; Marshall, S.J.; Ritchie, R.O.

    2002-09-18

    Human dentin is known to be susceptible to failure under cyclic loading. Surprisingly, there are few reports that quantify the effect of such loading, considering the fact that a typical tooth experiences a million or so loading cycles annually. In the present study, a systematic investigation is described of the effects of prolonged cyclic loading on human dentin in a simulated physiological environment. In vitro stress-life (S/N) data are discussed in the context of possible mechanisms of fatigue damage and failure.

  14. Fatigue methodology for life predictions for the wheel-rail contact area in large offshore turret bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Lassen

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The present report presents a fatigue life prediction method for large roller bearings applied in the turret turn table for large loading buoy units. The contact points between wheel and rail in these bearings are subjected to a multi-axial fluctuating stress situation and both surface wear and fatigue cracking may occur. A methodology based on the Dang Van fatigue criterion is adopted. The criterion is based on an equivalent stress defined as a combination of the fluctuation of the shear stress from its mean value at a critical plane and the associated hydrostatic stress at the given time. The present work is supporting the theoretical model by extensive laboratory testing. Both full scale testing of wheel on rail and small scale testing for characterizing the steel material are carried out. An experimental program was carried out with the high strength stainless steel S165M. The Dang Van stress concept is applied in combination with the Random Fatigue Limit Method (RFLM for life data analyses. This approach gives the opportunity to include both finite lives and the run-outs in a rational manner without any presumption of the existence of a fatigue limit in advance of the data. This gives a non-linear S-N curve for a log-log scale in the very high cycle regime close to the fatigue limit. It is demonstrated how the scatter in fatigue limit decreases when the Dang Van stress concept is applied and that the fatigue limit is occurring beyond 107 cycles

  15. Report on an Assessment of the Application of EPP Results from the Strain Limit Evaluation Procedure to the Prediction of Cyclic Life Based on the SMT Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jetter, R. I. [R. I. Jetter Consulting, Pebble Beach, CA (United States); Messner, M. C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sham, T. -L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wang, Y. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-08-01

    The goal of the proposed integrated Elastic Perfectly-Plastic (EPP) and Simplified Model Test (SMT) methodology is to incorporate an SMT data based approach for creep-fatigue damage evaluation into the EPP methodology to avoid the separate evaluation of creep and fatigue damage and eliminate the requirement for stress classification in current methods; thus greatly simplifying evaluation of elevated temperature cyclic service. This methodology should minimize over-conservatism while properly accounting for localized defects and stress risers. To support the implementation of the proposed methodology and to verify the applicability of the code rules, analytical studies and evaluation of thermomechanical test results continued in FY17. This report presents the results of those studies. An EPP strain limits methodology assessment was based on recent two-bar thermal ratcheting test results on 316H stainless steel in the temperature range of 405 to 7050C. Strain range predictions from the EPP evaluation of the two-bar tests were also evaluated and compared with the experimental results. The role of sustained primary loading on cyclic life was assessed using the results of pressurized SMT data from tests on Alloy 617 at 9500C. A viscoplastic material model was used in an analytic simulation of two-bar tests to compare with EPP strain limits assessments using isochronous stress strain curves that are consistent with the viscoplastic material model. A finite element model of a prior 304H stainless steel Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) nozzle-to-sphere test was developed and used for an EPP strain limits and creep-fatigue code case damage evaluations. A theoretical treatment of a recurring issue with convergence criteria for plastic shakedown illustrated the role of computer machine precision in EPP calculations.

  16. Service life prediction and cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis describes and discusses the applicability of a systematic methodology recommended by CIB W80/RILEM-PSL for sevice life prediction. The report describes the most important inherent and environmental factors affecting the service life of structures of cementitious composites....... On the basis of this discription of factors and experience from a test programme described in SBI Report 222, Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites, the applicabillity of the CIB/RILEM methodology is discussed....

  17. Butterfly valve torque prediction methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldiwany, B.H.; Sharma, V.; Kalsi, M.S.; Wolfe, K.

    1994-01-01

    As part of the Motor-Operated Valve (MOV) Performance Prediction Program, the Electric Power Research Institute has sponsored the development of methodologies for predicting thrust and torque requirements of gate, globe, and butterfly MOVs. This paper presents the methodology that will be used by utilities to calculate the dynamic torque requirements for butterfly valves. The total dynamic torque at any disc position is the sum of the hydrodynamic torque, bearing torque (which is induced by the hydrodynamic force), as well as other small torque components (such as packing torque). The hydrodynamic torque on the valve disc, caused by the fluid flow through the valve, depends on the disc angle, flow velocity, upstream flow disturbances, disc shape, and the disc aspect ratio. The butterfly valve model provides sets of nondimensional flow and torque coefficients that can be used to predict flow rate and hydrodynamic torque throughout the disc stroke and to calculate the required actuation torque and the maximum transmitted torque throughout the opening and closing stroke. The scope of the model includes symmetric and nonsymmetric discs of different shapes and aspects ratios in compressible and incompressible fluid applications under both choked and nonchoked flow conditions. The model features were validated against test data from a comprehensive flowloop and in situ test program. These tests were designed to systematically address the effect of the following parameters on the required torque: valve size, disc shapes and disc aspect ratios, upstream elbow orientation and its proximity, and flow conditions. The applicability of the nondimensional coefficients to valves of different sizes was validated by performing tests on 42-in. valve and a precisely scaled 6-in. model. The butterfly valve model torque predictions were found to bound test data from the flow-loop and in situ testing, as shown in the examples provided in this paper

  18. Methodological triangulation in work life research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warring, Niels

    Based on examples from two research projects on preschool teachers' work, the paper will discuss potentials and challenges in methodological triangulation in work life research. Analysis of ethnographic and phenomenological inspired observations of everyday life in day care centers formed the basis...... for individual interviews and informal talks with employees. The interviews and conversations were based on a critical hermeneutic approach. The analysis of observations and interviews constituted a knowledge base as the project went in to the last phase: action research workshops. In the workshops findings from...

  19. Methodologies for Social Life Cycle Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Andreas; Le Bocq, Agathe; Nazakina, Liudmila

    2008-01-01

    Goal, Scope and Background. In recent years several different approaches towards Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) have been developed. The purpose of this review is to compare these approaches in order to highlight methodological differences and general shortcomings. SLCA has several similarit......Goal, Scope and Background. In recent years several different approaches towards Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) have been developed. The purpose of this review is to compare these approaches in order to highlight methodological differences and general shortcomings. SLCA has several...... similarities with other social assessment tools, but in order to limit the review, only claims to address social impacts from an LCA-like framework is considered. Main Features. The review is to a large extent based on conference proceedings and reports of which some are not easily accessible, since very...... stage in the product life cycle. Another very important difference among the proposals is their position towards the use of generic data. Several of the proposals argue that social impacts are connected to the conduct of the company leading to the conclusion that each individual company in the product...

  20. Fatigue life prediction in composites

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Huston, RJ

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of the relatively large number of possible failure mechanisms in fibre reinforced composite materials, the prediction of fatigue life in a component is not a simple process. Several mathematical and statistical models have been proposed...

  1. Thermal sensation prediction by soft computing methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jović, Srđan; Arsić, Nebojša; Vilimonović, Jovana; Petković, Dalibor

    2016-12-01

    Thermal comfort in open urban areas is very factor based on environmental point of view. Therefore it is need to fulfill demands for suitable thermal comfort during urban planning and design. Thermal comfort can be modeled based on climatic parameters and other factors. The factors are variables and they are changed throughout the year and days. Therefore there is need to establish an algorithm for thermal comfort prediction according to the input variables. The prediction results could be used for planning of time of usage of urban areas. Since it is very nonlinear task, in this investigation was applied soft computing methodology in order to predict the thermal comfort. The main goal was to apply extreme leaning machine (ELM) for forecasting of physiological equivalent temperature (PET) values. Temperature, pressure, wind speed and irradiance were used as inputs. The prediction results are compared with some benchmark models. Based on the results ELM can be used effectively in forecasting of PET. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Life Prediction Methodologies for Aerospace Materials

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ashbaugh, N

    2001-01-01

    .... An investigation of elastic properties of colonies has continued with conjoint efforts in the experimental evaluation of test specimens containing large colonies and in finite element analysis...

  3. Life Prediction Methodologies for Aerospace Materials

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ashbaugh, N

    2000-01-01

    .... For a gamma titanium aluminide alloy, the coarse and refined lamellar materials with colony sizes equal to 700 and 280 m, respectively, have substantially greater crack growth resistance than does...

  4. Life Prediction Methodologies for Aerospace Materials

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ashbaugh, N

    2001-01-01

    The understanding of the effect of material defects, i.e., inclusions and grain size variances, on tensile and fatigue behavior, specifically initiation, in wrought gamma titanium aluminides was improved...

  5. Methodological Validation of Quality of Life Questionnaire for Coal Mining Groups-Indian Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Sayanti; Sen, Goutam; Tewary, B. K.

    2012-01-01

    Maslow's hierarchy-of-needs theory has been used to predict development of Quality of Life (QOL) in countries over time. In this paper an attempt has been taken to derive a methodological validation of quality of life questionnaire which have been prepared for the study area. The objective of the study is to standardize a questionnaire tool to…

  6. Methodologies for defining quality of life

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glicken, J. [Ecological Planning and Toxicology, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Engi, D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1996-10-10

    Quality of life as a concept has been used in many ways in the public policy arena. It can be used in summative evaluations to assess the impacts of policies or programs. Alternatively, it can be applied to formative evaluations to provide input to the formation of new policies. In short, it provides the context for the understanding needed to evaluate the results of choices that have been made in the public policy arena, or the potential of choices yet to be made. In either case, the public policy question revolves around the positive or negative impact the choice will have on quality of life, and the magnitude of that impact. This discussion will develop a conceptual framework that proposes that an assessment of quality of life is based on a comparison of expectations with experience. The framework defines four basic components from which these expectations arise: natural conditions, social conditions, the body, and the mind. Each one of these components is generally described, and associated with a general policy or rhetorical category which gives it its policy vocabulary--environmental quality, economic well-being, human health, and self-fulfillment.

  7. Software life cycle methodologies and environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridge, Ernest

    1991-01-01

    Products of this project will significantly improve the quality and productivity of Space Station Freedom Program software processes by: improving software reliability and safety; and broadening the range of problems that can be solved with computational solutions. Projects brings in Computer Aided Software Engineering (CASE) technology for: Environments such as Engineering Script Language/Parts Composition System (ESL/PCS) application generator, Intelligent User Interface for cost avoidance in setting up operational computer runs, Framework programmable platform for defining process and software development work flow control, Process for bringing CASE technology into an organization's culture, and CLIPS/CLIPS Ada language for developing expert systems; and methodologies such as Method for developing fault tolerant, distributed systems and a method for developing systems for common sense reasoning and for solving expert systems problems when only approximate truths are known.

  8. Experiencia in qualitative methodology: History of life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María del Socorro Borboa Quintero

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available From the commercial opening of Mexico the companies compete with transnational companies. In the municipality of Culiacan of the state of Sinaloa the small companies have been harmed mainly by his low level of productivity and competitiveness. Reason why to study two people who even with the complexity of the environment they haveinfluenced for the growth and development of its organization which is important for the local and state development. The intention of the present work, even though some results are included, is to show the method and the instruments used in the investigation. In the first place one poses the problem to investigate, the questions, objectives and hypotheses that orient this work, also includes the design of the field work, that contemplates relevance to use the qualitative method of the tradition life history, the collect and the storage of the data, its analysis and interpretation and some conclusions. The study allowed determining the characteristics and qualities that conform their personality of leader, as well as the identification of the management practices that have implemented.

  9. Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

  10. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2016-01-01

    A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg-Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. (The use of ISO 281:2007 with a fatigue limit in these calculations would result in a bearing life approaching infinity.) Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application. Rules had been developed to distinguish and compare predicted lives with those actually obtained. Based upon field and test results of 51 ball and roller bearing sets, 98 percent of these bearing sets had acceptable

  11. A new methodology for predictive tool wear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Won-Sik

    turned with various cutting conditions and the results were compared with the proposed analytical wear models. The crater surfaces after machining have been carefully studied to shed light on the physics behind the crater wear. In addition, the abrasive wear mechanism plays a major role in the development of crater wear. Laser shock processing (LSP) has been applied to locally relieve the deleterious tensile residual stresses on the crater surface of a coated tool, thus to improve the hardness of the coating. This thesis shows that LSP has indeed improve wear resistance of CVD coated alumina tool inserts, which has residual stress due to high processing temperature. LSP utilizes a very short laser pulse with high energy density, which induces high-pressure stress wave propagation. The residual stresses are relieved by incident shock waves on the coating surface. Residual stress levels of LSP CVD alumina-coated carbide insert were evaluated by the X-ray diffractometer. Based on these results, LSP parameters such as number of laser pulses and laser energy density can be controlled to reduce residual stress. Crater wear shows that the wear resistance increase with LSP treated tool inserts. Because the hardness data are used to predict the wear, the improvement in hardness and wear resistance shows that the mechanism of crater wear also involves abrasive wear.

  12. ASSESSMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: PRESENT AND FUTURE METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Benítez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The growing importance of quality of life in diverse domains, such as health, school performance and social participation, has led to the development of new conceptualisations and assessments of the construct. This diversity of perspectives brings about many benefits, but it also creates an obstacle for the formulation of a single unifying definition of the construct and, therefore, an agreed instrument or assessment framework. The aim of this study is to discuss the current methodological challenges in the measurement of quality of life. Firstly, we provide a brief description of the construct as defined in various areas, then we examine the new methodological developments and different applications. We also present an overview of the different possibilities for future developments in defining and measuring quality of life in national and international studies.

  13. Measurement of Quality of Life I. A Methodological Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soren Ventegodt

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the widespread acceptance of quality of life (QOL as the ideal guideline in healthcare and clinical research, serious conceptual and methodological problems continue to plague this area. In an attempt to remedy this situation, we propose seven criteria that a quality-of-life concept must meet to provide a sound basis for investigation by questionnaire. The seven criteria or desiderata are: (1 an explicit definition of quality of life; (2 a coherent philosophy of human life from which the definition is derived; (3 a theory that operationalizes the philosophy by specifying unambiguous, nonoverlapping, and jointly exhaustive questionnaire items; (4 response alternatives that permit a fraction-scale interpretation; (5 technical checks of reproducibility; (6 meaningfulness to investigators, respondents, and users; and (7 an overall aesthetic appeal of the questionnaire. These criteria have guided the design of a validated 5-item generic, global quality-of-life questionnaire (QOL5, and a validated 317-item generic, global quality-of-life questionnaire (SEQOL, administered to a well-documented birth cohort of 7,400 Danes born in 1959�1961, as well as to a reference sample of 2,500 Danes. Presented in outline, the underlying integrative quality-of-life (IQOL theory is a meta-theory. To illustrate the seven criteria at work, we show the extent to which they are satisfied by one of the eight component theories. Next, two sample results of our investigation are presented: satisfaction with one's sex life has the expected covariation with one's quality of life, and so does mother's smoking during pregnancy, albeit to a much smaller extent. It is concluded that the methodological framework presented has proved helpful in designing a questionnaire that is capable of yielding acceptably valid and reliable measurements of global and generic quality of life.

  14. The origin of life and its methodological challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wächtershäuser, G

    1997-08-21

    The problem of the origin of life is discussed from a methodological point of view as an encounter between the teleological thinking of the historian and the mechanistic thinking of the chemist; and as the Kantian task of replacing teleology by mechanism. It is shown how the Popperian situational logic of historic understanding and the Popperian principle of explanatory power of scientific theories, when jointly applied to biochemistry, lead to a methodology of biochemical retrodiction, whereby common precursor functions are constructed for disparate successor functions. This methodology is exemplified by central tenets of the theory of the chemo-autotrophic origin of life: the proposal of a surface metabolism with a two-dimensional order; the basic polarity of life with negatively charged constituents on positively charged mineral surfaces; the surface-metabolic origin of phosphorylated sugar metabolism and nucleic acids; the origin of membrane lipids and of chemi-osmosis on pyrite surfaces; and the principles of the origin of the genetic machinery. The theory presents the early evolution of life as a process that begins with chemical necessity and winds up in genetic chance.

  15. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP), Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements. Relying on...

  16. A methodology to evaluate the fatigue life of flexible pipes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sousa, Fernando J.M. de; Sousa, Jose Renato M. de; Siqueira, Marcos Q. de; Sagrilo, Luis V.S. [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Lemos, Carlos Alberto D. de [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    This paper focus on a methodology to perform the fatigue analysis of flexible pipes. This methodology employs functions that convert forces and moments obtained in global analyses into stresses. The stresses are then processed by well-known cycle counting methods, and S-N curves evaluate the damage at several points in the pipe cross-section. Palmgren-Miner linear damage hypothesis is assumed in order to calculate the accumulated fatigue damage. A parametric study on the fatigue life of a flexible pipe employing this methodology is presented. The main points addressed in the study are the influence of friction between layers in the results, the importance of evaluating the fatigue life in various points of the pipe cross-section and the effect of different mean stress levels. The obtained results suggest that the consideration of friction effects strongly influences the fatigue life of flexible risers and these effects have to be accounted both in the global and local analyses of the riser. Moreover, mean stress effects are also significant and at least 8 equally spaced wires in each analyzed section of the riser must be considered in fatigue analyses. (author)

  17. New methodology for fast prediction of wheel wear evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apezetxea, I. S.; Perez, X.; Casanueva, C.; Alonso, A.

    2017-07-01

    In railway applications wear prediction in the wheel-rail interface is a fundamental matter in order to study problems such as wheel lifespan and the evolution of vehicle dynamic characteristic with time. However, one of the principal drawbacks of the existing methodologies for calculating the wear evolution is the computational cost. This paper proposes a new wear prediction methodology with a reduced computational cost. This methodology is based on two main steps: the first one is the substitution of the calculations over the whole network by the calculation of the contact conditions in certain characteristic point from whose result the wheel wear evolution can be inferred. The second one is the substitution of the dynamic calculation (time integration calculations) by the quasi-static calculation (the solution of the quasi-static situation of a vehicle at a certain point which is the same that neglecting the acceleration terms in the dynamic equations). These simplifications allow a significant reduction of computational cost to be obtained while maintaining an acceptable level of accuracy (error order of 5-10%). Several case studies are analysed along the paper with the objective of assessing the proposed methodology. The results obtained in the case studies allow concluding that the proposed methodology is valid for an arbitrary vehicle running through an arbitrary track layout.

  18. Development of a methodology for life cycle building energy ratings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez, Patxi; Kenny, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Traditionally the majority of building energy use has been linked to its operation (heating, cooling, lighting, etc.), and much attention has been directed to reduce this energy use through technical innovation, regulatory control and assessed through a wide range of rating methods. However buildings generally employ an increasing amount of materials and systems to reduce the energy use in operation, and energy embodied in these can constitute an important part of the building's life cycle energy use. For buildings with 'zero-energy' use in operation the embodied energy is indeed the only life cycle energy use. This is not addressed by current building energy assessment and rating methods. This paper proposes a methodology to extend building energy assessment and rating methods accounting for embodied energy of building components and systems. The methodology is applied to the EU Building Energy Rating method and, as an illustration, as implemented in Irish domestic buildings. A case study dwelling is used to illustrate the importance of embodied energy on life cycle energy performance, particularly relevant when energy use in operation tends to zero. The use of the Net Energy Ratio as an indicator to select appropriate building improvement measures is also presented and discussed. - Highlights: → The definitions for 'zero energy buildings' and current building energy ratings are examined. → There is a need to integrate a life cycle perspective within building energy ratings. → A life cycle building energy rating method (LC-BER), including embodied energy is presented. → Net Energy Ratio is proposed as an indicator to select building energy improvement options.

  19. Life Cycle Engineering – from methodology to enterprise culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Alting, Leo; Poll, Christian

    2003-01-01

    As part of a sustainable development, the environmental efficiency of industry must increase by a factor four to ten. This engenders attention to the environmental impact of products and technical systems over their entire life cycle. The last decade has seen the development of a number of method......As part of a sustainable development, the environmental efficiency of industry must increase by a factor four to ten. This engenders attention to the environmental impact of products and technical systems over their entire life cycle. The last decade has seen the development of a number...... of methodologies and tools for life cycle assessment and development of more eco-efficient products, from complex to simplified, catering to the needs of especially small and medium-sized enterprizes. The tools and data are in place, but dissemination lacks behind. Propagation of life cycle thinking and life cycle...... engineering to larger parts of industry is attempted by strengthening the market pull through integrated product policy measures, and at the same time pushing through information activities, training and dissemination of tools. Experience hitherto shows that these forces are insufficient and that stronger...

  20. Prediction of thermal fatigue life of ceramics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamiya, N.; Kamigaito, O.

    1979-01-01

    On the assumption that the thermal fatigue life of ceramics is determined mainly by the duration over which a crack reaches a small critical length, a prediction of the life was made by application of fracture mechanics to ceramics based on subcritical crack growth. Approximated formulae were derived. Experimental examination showed that the formulae proved to be valid for glass, sintered mullite under moderate shock severity, and zirconia. Data given by other authors also prove their validity. The deviation of the life from the formulae for sintered mullite under a thermal shock of extremely low severty, suggests that a certain mechanism, for example strengthening, is needed to understand the life of the sintered mullite. (author)

  1. Towards an Airframe Noise Prediction Methodology: Survey of Current Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farassat, Fereidoun; Casper, Jay H.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we present a critical survey of the current airframe noise (AFN) prediction methodologies. Four methodologies are recognized. These are the fully analytic method, CFD combined with the acoustic analogy, the semi-empirical method and fully numerical method. It is argued that for the immediate need of the aircraft industry, the semi-empirical method based on recent high quality acoustic database is the best available method. The method based on CFD and the Ffowcs William- Hawkings (FW-H) equation with penetrable data surface (FW-Hpds ) has advanced considerably and much experience has been gained in its use. However, more research is needed in the near future particularly in the area of turbulence simulation. The fully numerical method will take longer to reach maturity. Based on the current trends, it is predicted that this method will eventually develop into the method of choice. Both the turbulence simulation and propagation methods need to develop more for this method to become useful. Nonetheless, the authors propose that the method based on a combination of numerical and analytical techniques, e.g., CFD combined with FW-H equation, should also be worked on. In this effort, the current symbolic algebra software will allow more analytical approaches to be incorporated into AFN prediction methods.

  2. Life Cycle Assessment of electricity generation: overview and methodological issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turconi, Roberto; Boldrin, Alessio; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    study focuses on the comparability between different technologies, identifying and quantifying the possible mistakes that can occur when comparing two technologies whose environmental assessments have been performed with conflicting assumptions. Nine different power generation technologies were examined......: hard coal, lignite, natural gas, oil, nuclear, biomass, hydroelectric, solar photovoltaic and wind. More than 150 published studies were selected and analyzed to investigate whether "typical" GHG, NOx and SO2 emission factors for each technology could be identified. For a better overview of the sources...... of emissions, those were divided among three life cycle phases: fuel provision, operation of the plant and infrastructure. It was possible to estimate typical emission factors for all technologies except for biomass, where methodological and technical aspects result in very variable outcomes. Within...

  3. Technology transfer equipment qualification methodology for shelf life determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, J.W.

    1995-01-01

    Discussions with a number of Nuclear Utilities revealed that equipment qualified for 10 to 40 years in the harsh environment of the plant was being assigned shelf lives of only 5 to 10 years in the benign environment of the warehouse, and then the materials were being trashed. One safety-related equipment supplier was assigning a 10-year qualified life, from date of shipment, with no recognition of the difference in the aging rate in the plant vs. that in the warehouse. Many suppliers assign shelf lives based on product warranty considerations rather than actual product degradation. An EPRI program was initiated to evaluate the methods used to assign shelf lives and to adapt the Arrhenius methodology, used in equipment qualification, to assign technically justifiable shelf lives. Temperature is the main factor controlling shelf life; however, atmospheric pressure, humidity, ultraviolet light, ozone and other atmospheric contaminants were also considered. A list of 70 representative materials was addressed in the program. All of these were found to have shelf lives of 14 years to greater than 60 years, except for 19 items. For 18 of these items, there was no data available except for the manufacturer's recommendation

  4. Optimization of Nanocomposite Modified Asphalt Mixtures Fatigue Life using Response Surface Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bala, N.; Napiah, M.; Kamaruddin, I.; Danlami, N.

    2018-04-01

    In this study, modelling and optimization of materials polyethylene, polypropylene and nanosilica for nanocomposite modified asphalt mixtures has been examined to obtain optimum quantities for higher fatique life. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was applied for the optimization based on Box Behnken design (BBD). Interaction effects of independent variables polymers and nanosilica on fatique life were evaluated. The result indicates that the individual effects of polymers and nanosilica content are both important. However, the content of nanosilica used has more significant effect on fatique life resistance. Also, the mean error obtained from optimization results is less than 5% for all the responses, this indicates that predicted values are in agreement with experimental results. Furthermore, it was concluded that asphalt mixture design with high performance properties, optimization using RSM is a very effective approach.

  5. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P; Diener, Ed

    2016-07-01

    Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as predictors of relationship, adjustment, self-worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilised multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Early adolescent positive affect predicted fewer relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, and greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers) and healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  6. Predicting life-history adaptations to pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maltby, L. [Univ. of Sheffield (United Kingdom). Dept. of Animal and Plant Sciences

    1995-12-31

    Animals may adapt to pollutant stress so that individuals from polluted environments are less susceptible than those from unpolluted environments. In addition to such direct adaptations, animals may respond to pollutant stress by life-history modifications; so-called indirect adaptations. This paper will demonstrate how, by combining life-history theory and toxicological data, it is possible to predict stress-induced alterations in reproductive output and offspring size. Pollutant-induced alterations in age-specific survival in favor of adults and reductions in juvenile growth, conditions are predicted to select for reduced investment in reproduction and the allocation of this investment into fewer, larger offspring. Field observations on the freshwater crustaceans, Asellus aquaticus and Gammarus pulex, support these predictions. Females from metal-polluted sites had lower investment in reproduction and produced larger offspring than females of the same species from unpolluted sites. Moreover, interpopulation differences in reproductive biology persisted in laboratory cultures indicating that they had a genetic basis and were therefore due to adaptation rather than acclimation. The general applicability of this approach will be considered.

  7. A methodology for the prediction of offshore wind energy resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, S J; Watson, G M [Rutherford Appleton Lab., Oxfordshire (United Kingdom); Holt, R.J. [Univ. of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom)] Barthelmie, R.J. [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark); Zuylen, E.J. van [Ecofys Energy and Environment, Utrecht (Netherlands)] Cleijne, J.W. [Kema Sustainable, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    1999-03-01

    There are increasing constraints on the development of wind power on land. Recently, there has been a move to develop wind power offshore, though the amount of measured wind speed data at potential offshore wind farm sites is sparse. We present a novel methodology for the prediction of offshore wind power resources which is being applied to European Union waters. The first stage is to calculate the geostrophic wind from long-term pressure fields over the sea area of interest. Secondly, the geostrophic wind is transformed to the sea level using WA{sup s}P, taking account of near shore topography. Finally, these values are corrected for land/sea climatology (stability) effects using an analytical Coastal discontinuity Model (CDM). These values are further refined using high resolution offshore data at selected sites. The final values are validated against existing offshore datasets. Preliminary results are presented of the geostrophic wind speed validation in European Union waters. (au)

  8. Proposition of Improved Methodology in Creep Life Extrapolation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Park, Jae Young; Jang, Jin Sung [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    To design SFRs for a 60-year operation, it is desirable to have the experimental creep-rupture data for Gr. 91 steel close to 20 y, or at least rupture lives significantly higher than 10{sup 5} h. This requirement arises from the fact that, for the creep design, a factor of 3 times for extrapolation is considered to be appropriate. However, obtaining experimental data close to 20 y would be expensive and also take considerable time. Therefore, reliable creep life extrapolation techniques become necessary for a safe design life of 60 y. In addition, it is appropriate to obtain experimental longterm creep-rupture data in the range 10{sup 5} ∼ 2x10{sup 5} h to improve the reliability of extrapolation. In the present investigation, a new function of a hyperbolic sine ('sinh') form for a master curve in time-temperature parameter (TTP) methods, was proposed to accurately extrapolate the long-term creep rupture stress of Gr. 91 steel. Constant values used for each parametric equation were optimized on the basis of the creep rupture data. Average stress values predicted for up to 60 y were evaluated and compared with those of French Nuclear Design Code, RCC-MRx. The results showed that the master curve of the 'sinh' function was a wider acceptance with good flexibility in the low stress ranges beyond the experimental data. It was clarified clarified that the 'sinh' function was reasonable in creep life extrapolation compared with polynomial forms, which have been used conventionally until now.

  9. Proposition of Improved Methodology in Creep Life Extrapolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Park, Jae Young; Jang, Jin Sung

    2016-01-01

    To design SFRs for a 60-year operation, it is desirable to have the experimental creep-rupture data for Gr. 91 steel close to 20 y, or at least rupture lives significantly higher than 10"5 h. This requirement arises from the fact that, for the creep design, a factor of 3 times for extrapolation is considered to be appropriate. However, obtaining experimental data close to 20 y would be expensive and also take considerable time. Therefore, reliable creep life extrapolation techniques become necessary for a safe design life of 60 y. In addition, it is appropriate to obtain experimental longterm creep-rupture data in the range 10"5 ∼ 2x10"5 h to improve the reliability of extrapolation. In the present investigation, a new function of a hyperbolic sine ('sinh') form for a master curve in time-temperature parameter (TTP) methods, was proposed to accurately extrapolate the long-term creep rupture stress of Gr. 91 steel. Constant values used for each parametric equation were optimized on the basis of the creep rupture data. Average stress values predicted for up to 60 y were evaluated and compared with those of French Nuclear Design Code, RCC-MRx. The results showed that the master curve of the 'sinh' function was a wider acceptance with good flexibility in the low stress ranges beyond the experimental data. It was clarified clarified that the 'sinh' function was reasonable in creep life extrapolation compared with polynomial forms, which have been used conventionally until now.

  10. Methodology for predicting cooling water effects on fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cakiroglu, C.; Yurteri, C.

    1998-01-01

    The mathematical model presented here predicts the long-term effects of once-through cooling water systems on local fish populations. The fish life cycle model simulates different life stages of fish by using appropriate expressions representing growth and mortality rates. The heart of the developed modeling approach is the prediction of plant-caused reduction in total fish population by estimating recruitment to adult population with and without entrainment of ichthyoplankton and impingement of small fish. The model was applied to a local fish species, gilthead (Aparus aurata), for the case of a proposed power plant in the Aegean region of Turkey. The simulations indicate that entrainment and impingement may lead to a population reduction of about 2% to 8% in the long run. In many cases, an impact of this size can be considered rather unimportant. In the case of sensitive and ecologically values species facing extinction, however, necessary precautions should be taken to minimize or totally avoid such an impact

  11. Methodological Challenges in Studies Comparing Prehospital Advanced Life Support with Basic Life Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Timmy; Jones, Courtney M C; Shah, Manish N; Cushman, Jeremy T; Jusko, Todd A

    2017-08-01

    Determining the most appropriate level of care for patients in the prehospital setting during medical emergencies is essential. A large body of literature suggests that, compared with Basic Life Support (BLS) care, Advanced Life Support (ALS) care is not associated with increased patient survival or decreased mortality. The purpose of this special report is to synthesize the literature to identify common study design and analytic challenges in research studies that examine the effect of ALS, compared to BLS, on patient outcomes. The challenges discussed in this report include: (1) choice of outcome measure; (2) logistic regression modeling of common outcomes; (3) baseline differences between study groups (confounding); (4) inappropriate statistical adjustment; and (5) inclusion of patients who are no longer at risk for the outcome. These challenges may affect the results of studies, and thus, conclusions of studies regarding the effect of level of prehospital care on patient outcomes should require cautious interpretation. Specific alternatives for avoiding these challenges are presented. Li T , Jones CMC , Shah MN , Cushman JT , Jusko TA . Methodological challenges in studies comparing prehospital Advanced Life Support with Basic Life Support. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(4):444-450.

  12. Decomposition Technique for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor); Saxena, Abhinav (Inventor); Celaya, Jose R. (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    The prognostic tool disclosed here decomposes the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component or sub-system into two separate regression problems: the feature-to-damage mapping and the operational conditions-to-damage-rate mapping. These maps are initially generated in off-line mode. One or more regression algorithms are used to generate each of these maps from measurements (and features derived from these), operational conditions, and ground truth information. This decomposition technique allows for the explicit quantification and management of different sources of uncertainty present in the process. Next, the maps are used in an on-line mode where run-time data (sensor measurements and operational conditions) are used in conjunction with the maps generated in off-line mode to estimate both current damage state as well as future damage accumulation. Remaining life is computed by subtracting the instance when the extrapolated damage reaches the failure threshold from the instance when the prediction is made.

  13. Measurement of quality of life I. A methodological framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ventegodt, Søren; Hilden, Jørgen; Merrick, Joav

    2003-01-01

    meet to provide a sound basis for investigation by questionnaire. The seven criteria or desiderata are: (1) an explicit definition of quality of life; (2) a coherent philosophy of human life from which the definition is derived; (3) a theory that operationalizes the philosophy by specifying unambiguous...

  14. Modeling of Complex Life Cycle Prediction Based on Cell Division

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fucheng Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective fault diagnosis and reasonable life expectancy are of great significance and practical engineering value for the safety, reliability, and maintenance cost of equipment and working environment. At present, the life prediction methods of the equipment are equipment life prediction based on condition monitoring, combined forecasting model, and driven data. Most of them need to be based on a large amount of data to achieve the problem. For this issue, we propose learning from the mechanism of cell division in the organism. We have established a moderate complexity of life prediction model across studying the complex multifactor correlation life model. In this paper, we model the life prediction of cell division. Experiments show that our model can effectively simulate the state of cell division. Through the model of reference, we will use it for the equipment of the complex life prediction.

  15. Large Engine Technology (LET) Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor Contingency Power Materials Knowledge and Lifing Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spring, Samuel D.

    2006-01-01

    This report documents the results of an experimental program conducted on two advanced metallic alloy systems (Rene' 142 directionally solidified alloy (DS) and Rene' N6 single crystal alloy) and the characterization of two distinct internal state variable inelastic constitutive models. The long term objective of the study was to develop a computational life prediction methodology that can integrate the obtained material data. A specialized test matrix for characterizing advanced unified viscoplastic models was specified and conducted. This matrix included strain controlled tensile tests with intermittent relaxtion test with 2 hr hold times, constant stress creep tests, stepped creep tests, mixed creep and plasticity tests, cyclic temperature creep tests and tests in which temperature overloads were present to simulate actual operation conditions for validation of the models. The selected internal state variable models where shown to be capable of representing the material behavior exhibited by the experimental results; however the program ended prior to final validation of the models.

  16. Methodology for Designing Models Predicting Success of Infertility Treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Zarinara; Mohammad Mahdi Akhondi; Hojjat Zeraati; Koorsh Kamali; Kazem Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background: The prediction models for infertility treatment success have presented since 25 years ago. There are scientific principles for designing and applying the prediction models that is also used to predict the success rate of infertility treatment. The purpose of this study is to provide basic principles for designing the model to predic infertility treatment success. Materials and Methods: In this paper, the principles for developing predictive models are explained and...

  17. Predicting the residual life of plant equipment - Why worry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaske, C.E.

    1985-01-01

    Predicting the residual life of plant equipment that has been in service for 20 to 30 years or more is a major concern of many industries. This paper reviews the reasons for increased concern for residual-life assessment and the general procedures used in performing such assessments. Some examples and case histories illustrating procedures for assessing remaining service life are discussed. Areas where developments are needed to improve the technology for remaining-life estimation are pointed out. Then, some of the critical issues involved in residual-life assessment are identified. Finally, the future role of residual-life prediction is addressed

  18. Life prediction technology of structural materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagata, Norio

    1992-01-01

    There is empirically the time limit of use in all industrial plants and components. By defining the loss of functions as the expiration of life, if the forecast of life time or residual life of plants and components can be done, a very useful means becomes available for safety and economical efficiency. The life of plants is controlled by the occurrence and extension of defects in materials, and by the life of the material which is placed under most severe condition. Such severe condition is the environment of use itself with high temperature, corrosive environment, load, vibration and so on. The forecast of material life is to quantitatively grasp the damage behavior of materials under such condition, and to carry out the time control of the functions of plants by defect control. The time dependence of material damage such as fatigue damage, creep damage and corrosion damage is discussed. The forecast of material life by empirical knowledge and theoretical inference and the forecast of residual life are explained. Finally, the forecast of the life time of light water reactors is described as those constructed in initial period approach their design life. (K.I.)

  19. 10 CFR 455.64 - Life-cycle cost methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...-investment ratio is the ratio of the present value of net cost savings attributable to an energy conservation measure to the present value of the net increase in investment, maintenance and operating, and replacement... present value. The format for displaying life-cycle costs shall be a savings-to-investment ratio. (b) An...

  20. Solid-state lighting life prediction using extended Kalman filter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep [Auburn Univ., AL (United States); Wei, Junchao [Auburn Univ., AL (United States); Davis, Lynn [RTI International, Durham, NC (United States)

    2013-07-16

    Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. The U.S. Department of Energy has made a long term commitment to advance the efficiency, understanding and development of solid-state lighting (SSL) and is making a strong push for the acceptance and use of SSL products to reduce overall energy consumption attributable to lighting. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of SSL Luminaires from LM-80 test data. The TM-21 model uses an Arrhenius Equation with an Activation Energy, Pre-decay factor and Decay Rates. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a luminaire at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Arrhenius Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, a Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filters have been used to develop a 70% Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for a LEDs used in SSL luminaires. This model can be used to calculate acceleration factors, evaluate failure-probability and identify ALT methodologies for reducing test time. Ten-thousand hour LM

  1. Fatigue life prediction of oil ducts under service loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meggiolaro, Marco A.; Castro, Jaime T.P. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2003-07-01

    A methodology to calculate the residual initiation and propagation lives of fatigue cracks in oil pipelines with corrosion-like defects is proposed and applied to predict the residual life of an old duct made of API 5L Gr. B steel, in service for more than 40 years. Since its inauguration, this pipeline has carried several heated products under variable temperatures and pressures. The calculated (nominal) service stresses are very high, due to thermal loads that induce significant bending in curved parts of the duct, with peaks close to the yield strength of the steel. The elastic- plastic fatigue damage at a notch or a corrosion pit root is calculated using the {epsilon}N method, and the effects of surface semi-elliptical cracks in its internal (or external) wall is studied considering appropriate stress intensity factor expressions and the actual service loads. In the presence of surface flaws associated to stress concentration factors of the order of three, a fatigue crack likely will initiate in the pipeline. However, if these surface cracks are small compared to the duct wall thickness, their predicted propagation rates are very low. (author)

  2. Thermomechanical fatigue life prediction for several solders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Shengmin

    Since solder connections operate at high homologous temperature, solders are high temperature materials. This feature makes their mechanical behavior and fatigue phenomena unique. Based on experimental findings, a physical damage mechanism is introduced for solders. The mechanism views the damage process as a series of independent local damage events characterized by the failure of individual grains, while the structural damage is the eventual percolation result of such local events. Fine's dislocation energy density concept and Mura's microcrack initiation theory are adopted to derive the fatigue formula for an individual grain. A physical damage metric is introduced to describe the material with damage. A unified creep and plasticity constitutive model is adopted to simulate the mechanical behavior of solders. The model is cast into a continuum damage mechanics framework to simulate material with damage. The model gives good agreement with the experimental results of 96.5Pb-3.5Sn and 96.5Sn-3.5Ag solders under uniaxial strain-controlled cyclic loading. The model is convenient for implementation into commercial computational packages. Also presented is a fatigue theory with its failure criterion for solders based on physical damage mechanism. By introducing grain orientation into the fatigue formula, an m-N curve (m is Schmid factor) at constant loading condition is suggested for fatigue of grains with different orientations. A solder structure is defined as fatigued when the damage metric reaches a critical threshold, since at this threshold the failed grains may form a cluster and percolate through the structure according to percolation theory. Fatigue data of 96.5Pb-3.5Sn solder bulk specimens under various uniaxial tension tests were analyzed. Results show that the theory gives consistent predictions under broad conditions, while inelastic strain theory does not. The theory is anisotropic with no size limitation to its application, which could be suitable for

  3. Methodological issues underlying multiple decrement life table analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mode, C J; Avery, R C; Littman, G S; Potter, R G

    1977-02-01

    In this paper, the actuarial method of multiple decrement life table analysis of censored, longitudinal data is examined. The discussion is organized in terms of the first segment of usage of an intrauterine device. Weaknesses of the actuarial approach are pointed out, and an alternative approach, based on the classical model of competing risks, is proposed. Finally, the actuarial and the alternative method of analyzing censored data are compared, using data from the Taichung Medical Study on Intrauterine Devices.

  4. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Sinatra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

  5. The Secret Life of RNA: Lessons from Emerging Methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medioni, Caroline; Besse, Florence

    2018-01-01

    The last past decade has witnessed a revolution in our appreciation of transcriptome complexity and regulation. This remarkable expansion in our knowledge largely originates from the advent of high-throughput methodologies, and the consecutive discovery that up to 90% of eukaryotic genomes are transcribed, thus generating an unanticipated large range of noncoding RNAs (Hangauer et al., 15(4):112, 2014). Besides leading to the identification of new noncoding RNA species, transcriptome-wide studies have uncovered novel layers of posttranscriptional regulatory mechanisms controlling RNA processing, maturation or translation, and each contributing to the precise and dynamic regulation of gene expression. Remarkably, the development of systems-level studies has been accompanied by tremendous progress in the visualization of individual RNA molecules in single cells, such that it is now possible to image RNA species with a single-molecule resolution from birth to translation or decay. Monitoring quantitatively, with unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution, the fate of individual molecules has been key to understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying the different steps of RNA regulation. This has also revealed biologically relevant, intracellular and intercellular heterogeneities in RNA distribution or regulation. More recently, the convergence of imaging and high-throughput technologies has led to the emergence of spatially resolved transcriptomic techniques that provide a means to perform large-scale analyses while preserving spatial information. By generating transcriptome-wide data on single-cell RNA content, or even subcellular RNA distribution, these methodologies are opening avenues to a wide range of network-level studies at the cell and organ-level, and promise to strongly improve disease diagnostic and treatment.In this introductory chapter, we highlight how recently developed technologies aiming at detecting and visualizing RNA molecules have contributed to

  6. Residual life of technical systems; diagnosis, prediction and life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinertsen, Rune

    1996-01-01

    The paper presents and discusses research related to residual life of non-repairable and repairable technical systems. Diagnosis of systems and extension of residual life of technical systems are also presented and discussed. This paper concludes that research published describing determination and extension of residual life as well as methods for diagnosis of non-repairable and repairable technical systems, is somewhat limited. Many papers have a rather pragmatic approach. The authors only describe special cases from their own plant and do not provide any explanation of a more academical nature. The other papers are mainly describing very specific applications of statistical models, leaving the more general case out of consideration. One of the main results of this paper is to point out these facts, and thereby identify the need for future research in this area

  7. Predicting Battery Life for Electric UAVs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a novel battery health management technology for the new generation of electric unmanned aerial vehicles powered by long-life, high-density,...

  8. Methodology for Life Testing of Refractory Metal / Sodium Heat Pipes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, James J.; Reid, Robert S.

    2006-01-01

    This work establishes an approach to generate carefully controlled data to find heat pipe operating life with material-fluid combinations capable of extended operation. To accomplish this goal acceleration is required to compress 10 years of operational life into 3 years of laboratory testing through a combination of increased temperature and mass fluence. Specific test series have been identified, based on American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) specifications, to investigate long-term corrosion rates. The refractory metal selected for demonstration purposes is a molybdenum-44.5% rhenium alloy formed by powder metallurgy. The heat pipes each have an annular crescent wick formed by hot isostatic pressing of molybdenum-rhenium wire mesh. The heat pipes are filled by vacuum distillation with purity sampling of the completed assembly. Round-the-clock heat pipe tests with 6-month destructive and non-destructive inspection intervals are conducted to identify the onset and level of corrosion. Non-contact techniques are employed to provide power to the evaporator (radio frequency induction heating at 1 to 5 kW per heat pipe) and calorimetry at the condenser (static gas gap coupled water cooled calorimeter). The planned operating temperature range extends from 1123 to 1323 K. Accomplishments before project cancellation included successful development of the heat pipe wick fabrication technique, establishment of all engineering designs, baseline operational test requirements, and procurement/assembly of supporting test hardware systems. (authors)

  9. Actual service life prediction of building components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard, Niels-Jørgen; Brandt, Erik; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, sustainability and life cycle cost in the construction industry have been given great attention in many countries due to the heavy climatic and environmental impact from this sector. In Denmark, a sustainability certification scheme for buildings has been developed including....... Finally, it is discussed how to adjust the model for practical purposes, and a scheme for actual service life for selected building components important for analysis of sustainability is linked. The schemes are now being implemented as basis for sustainability certification of new buildings in Denmark....

  10. Forest cover change prediction using hybrid methodology of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to assess the present and future land use/land cover scenario of Gangtok, the subHimalayan capital of ... data is minimal. Finally, a combination of Markov modelling and SAVI was used to predict the probable land-use scenario in Gangtok in 2020 AD, which indicted that more ... to develop resource allocation strategies.

  11. Fatigue Life Methodology for Tapered Hybrid Composite Flexbeams

    Science.gov (United States)

    urri, Gretchen B.; Schaff, Jeffery R.

    2006-01-01

    Nonlinear-tapered flexbeam specimens from a full-size composite helicopter rotor hub flexbeam were tested under combined constant axial tension and cyclic bending loads. Two different graphite/glass hybrid configurations tested under cyclic loading failed by delamination in the tapered region. A 2-D finite element model was developed which closely approximated the flexbeam geometry, boundary conditions, and loading. The analysis results from two geometrically nonlinear finite element codes, ANSYS and ABAQUS, are presented and compared. Strain energy release rates (G) associated with simulated delamination growth in the flexbeams are presented from both codes. These results compare well with each other and suggest that the initial delamination growth from the tip of the ply-drop toward the thick region of the flexbeam is strongly mode II. The peak calculated G values were used with material characterization data to calculate fatigue life curves for comparison with test data. A curve relating maximum surface strain to number of loading cycles at delamination onset compared well with the test results.

  12. Life prediction of Ni-base superalloy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    mean stress exponent, n, and the mean activation energy for creep were calculated from the experimental results. The accelerated creep life of the alloy was evaluated by using iso-stress parametric equations and Monkman–Grant method. Keywords. ... This alloy is age-hardenable by a fine dispersion of γ par- ticles, which ...

  13. A methodology for noise prediction of turbofan engines.

    OpenAIRE

    Gustavo Di Fiore dos Santos

    2006-01-01

    A computional model is developed for prediction of noise emission from na existing or new turbofan engine. This model allows the simulation of noise generation from high bypass ratio turbofan engines, appropriate for use with computational programs for gas turbine performance developed at ITA. Analytical and empirical methods are used for spectrum shape, spectrum level, overall noise and free-field directivity noise. The most significant noise sources in turbofan engines are modeled: fan, com...

  14. Life history theory and breast cancer risk: methodological and theoretical challenges: Response to "Is estrogen receptor negative breast cancer risk associated with a fast life history strategy?".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aktipis, Athena

    2016-01-01

    In a meta-analysis published by myself and co-authors, we report differences in the life history risk factors for estrogen receptor negative (ER-) and estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancers. Our meta-analysis did not find the association of ER- breast cancer risk with fast life history characteristics that Hidaka and Boddy suggest in their response to our article. There are a number of possible explanations for the differences between their conclusions and the conclusions we drew from our meta-analysis, including limitations of our meta-analysis and methodological challenges in measuring and categorizing estrogen receptor status. These challenges, along with the association of ER+ breast cancer with slow life history characteristics, may make it challenging to find a clear signal of ER- breast cancer with fast life history characteristics, even if that relationship does exist. The contradictory results regarding breast cancer risk and life history characteristics illustrate a more general challenge in evolutionary medicine: often different sub-theories in evolutionary biology make contradictory predictions about disease risk. In this case, life history models predict that breast cancer risk should increase with faster life history characteristics, while the evolutionary mismatch hypothesis predicts that breast cancer risk should increase with delayed reproduction. Whether life history tradeoffs contribute to ER- breast cancer is still an open question, but current models and several lines of evidence suggest that it is a possibility. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health.

  15. Predicting product life cycle using fuzzy neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important tasks of science in different fields is to find the relationships among various phenomena in order to predict future. Production and service organizations are not exceptions and they should predict future to survive. Predicting the life cycle of the organization's products is one of the most important prediction cases in an organization. Predicting the product life cycle provides an opportunity to identify the product position and help to get a better insight about competitors. This paper deals with the predictability of the product life cycle with Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS. The Population of this study was Pegah Fars products and the sample was this company's cheese products. In this regard, this paper attempts to model and predict the product life cycle of cheese products in Pegah Fars Company. In this due, a designed questionnaire was distributed among some experts, distributors and retailers and seven independent variables were selected. In this survey, ANFIS sales forecasting technique was employed and MATLAB software was used for data analysis. The results confirmed ANFIS as a good method to predict the product life cycle.

  16. Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer, Jordi; Prats, Clara; López, Daniel; Vives-Rego, Josep

    2009-08-31

    Predictive microbiology is the area of food microbiology that attempts to forecast the quantitative evolution of microbial populations over time. This is achieved to a great extent through models that include the mechanisms governing population dynamics. Traditionally, the models used in predictive microbiology are whole-system continuous models that describe population dynamics by means of equations applied to extensive or averaged variables of the whole system. Many existing models can be classified by specific criteria. We can distinguish between survival and growth models by seeing whether they tackle mortality or cell duplication. We can distinguish between empirical (phenomenological) models, which mathematically describe specific behaviour, and theoretical (mechanistic) models with a biological basis, which search for the underlying mechanisms driving already observed phenomena. We can also distinguish between primary, secondary and tertiary models, by examining their treatment of the effects of external factors and constraints on the microbial community. Recently, the use of spatially explicit Individual-based Models (IbMs) has spread through predictive microbiology, due to the current technological capacity of performing measurements on single individual cells and thanks to the consolidation of computational modelling. Spatially explicit IbMs are bottom-up approaches to microbial communities that build bridges between the description of micro-organisms at the cell level and macroscopic observations at the population level. They provide greater insight into the mesoscale phenomena that link unicellular and population levels. Every model is built in response to a particular question and with different aims. Even so, in this research we conducted a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the different approaches (population continuous modelling and Individual-based Modelling), which we hope will be helpful for current and future

  17. Methodologies for assessment of the service life of pressure tubes in Indian PHWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, R.K.; Sharma, A.; Madhusoodanan, K.; Sinha, S.K.; Malshe, U.D.

    1997-01-01

    For estimating safe service life of pressure tubes in Indian PHWRs, analytical methodologies have been developed to evaluate creep deformation, deuterium pick-up rate, blister growth at cold spot, and operating domain required for achieving leak-before-break. The paper provides an overview of these methodologies, and results of some studies carried out towards evolution of proposed fitness-for-service criteria for a pressure tube in contact with its calandria tube. (author)

  18. Epileptic seizure prediction based on a bivariate spectral power methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandarabadi, Mojtaba; Teixeira, Cesar A; Direito, Bruno; Dourado, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    The spectral power of 5 frequently considered frequency bands (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Theta and Delta) for 6 EEG channels is computed and then all the possible pairwise combinations among the 30 features set, are used to create a 435 dimensional feature space. Two new feature selection methods are introduced to choose the best candidate features among those and to reduce the dimensionality of this feature space. The selected features are then fed to Support Vector Machines (SVMs) that classify the cerebral state in preictal and non-preictal classes. The outputs of the SVM are regularized using a method that accounts for the classification dynamics of the preictal class, also known as "Firing Power" method. The results obtained using our feature selection approaches are compared with the ones obtained using minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) feature selection method. The results in a group of 12 patients of the EPILEPSIAE database, containing 46 seizures and 787 hours multichannel recording for out-of-sample data, indicate the efficiency of the bivariate approach as well as the two new feature selection methods. The best results presented sensitivity of 76.09% (35 of 46 seizures predicted) and a false prediction rate of 0.15(-1).

  19. Service life prediction of exterior plastics vision for the future

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Jon; Chapin, J

    2015-01-01

    This book defines the current state-of-the-art for predicting the lifetime of plastics exposed to weather and outlines future research needed to advance this important field of study. Coverage includes progress in developing new science and test methods to determine how materials respond to weather exposure. This book is ideal for researchers and professionals working in the field of service life prediction. This book also: Examines numerous consensus standards that affect commercial products allowing readers to see the future of standards related to service life prediction Provides the scientific foundation for the latest commercially viable instruments Presents groundbreaking research, including the blueprint of a new test method that will significantly shorten the service life prediction process time Covers two of the latest verified predictive models, which demonstrate realized-potential to transform the field

  20. Life Prediction on a T700 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Cylinder with Limited Accelerated Life Testing Data

    OpenAIRE

    Ma Xiaobing; Zhang Yongbo

    2015-01-01

    An accelerated life testing investigation was conducted on a composite cylinder that consists of aluminum alloy and T700 carbon fiber. The ultimate failure stress predictions of cylinders were obtained by the mixing rule and verified by the blasting static pressure method. Based on the stress prediction of cylinder under working conditions, the constant stress accelerated life test of the cylinder was designed. However, the failure data cannot be sufficiently obtained by the accelerated life ...

  1. ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF USAGE METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruslan Valentinovich Druzin

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of the most common foreign methods showed that they were designed to analyze enterprises in the sustainable economic development with low-shadowing of the economy. The most appropriate retrospective analysis results were obtained using Springate model, Lis ratio and Beaver ratio. Domestic methods analysis allows us to conclude that they make it difficult to account criterion of insolvency using a number of factors. Ukrainian researchers, as well as foreigners, use indexes for bankruptcy prediction that are based on convolution values of different insolvency signs. However, we believe that usage of a single indicator as a result doesn’t allow us to make an insolvency diagnosis. The reason is high probability of an erroneous calculation because of the unreliability of the data used. Also, one of domestic methods problems is their orientation to the official statistics that increases the error due to significant domestic shadowing economy.

  2. Rainfall prediction methodology with binary multilayer perceptron neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteves, João Trevizoli; de Souza Rolim, Glauco; Ferraudo, Antonio Sergio

    2018-05-01

    Precipitation, in short periods of time, is a phenomenon associated with high levels of uncertainty and variability. Given its nature, traditional forecasting techniques are expensive and computationally demanding. This paper presents a soft computing technique to forecast the occurrence of rainfall in short ranges of time by artificial neural networks (ANNs) in accumulated periods from 3 to 7 days for each climatic season, mitigating the necessity of predicting its amount. With this premise it is intended to reduce the variance, rise the bias of data and lower the responsibility of the model acting as a filter for quantitative models by removing subsequent occurrences of zeros values of rainfall which leads to bias the and reduces its performance. The model were developed with time series from ten agriculturally relevant regions in Brazil, these places are the ones with the longest available weather time series and and more deficient in accurate climate predictions, it was available 60 years of daily mean air temperature and accumulated precipitation which were used to estimate the potential evapotranspiration and water balance; these were the variables used as inputs for the ANNs models. The mean accuracy of the model for all the accumulated periods were 78% on summer, 71% on winter 62% on spring and 56% on autumn, it was identified that the effect of continentality, the effect of altitude and the volume of normal precipitation, have an direct impact on the accuracy of the ANNs. The models have peak performance in well defined seasons, but looses its accuracy in transitional seasons and places under influence of macro-climatic and mesoclimatic effects, which indicates that this technique can be used to indicate the eminence of rainfall with some limitations.

  3. Computational thermofracture mechanics and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu Tairan

    1992-01-01

    This paper will present computational techniques used for the prediction of the thermofracture behaviour of structures subject to either monotonic or cyclic combined thermal and mechanical loadings. Two specific areas will be dealt with in the paper. (1) The Time-invariant thermofracture of leaking pipelines with non-uniform temperature fields; in this case, the induced non-uniform temperature fields near leaking cracks have shown to be significant. The severity of these temperature fields on the thermofracture behaviour of the pipeline will be demonstrated by a numerical example. (2) Thermomechanical creep fracture of structures: Recent developments, including those of the author's own work, on cyclic creep-fracture using damage theory will be presented. Long 'hold' and 'dwell' times, which occur in the actual operations of nuclear power plant components have been shown to have a significant effect on the overall creep-fracture behaviour of the material. Constitutive laws, which include most of these effects, have been incorporated into the existing TEPSAC code for the prediction of crack growth in solids under cyclic creep loadings. The effectiveness of using the damage parameters as fracture criteria, and the presence of plastic deformation in the overall results will be assessed. (orig.)

  4. Prediction of health risks from accidents: A comprehensive assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacFarlane, D.R.; Yuan, Y.C.

    1992-01-01

    We have developed two computer programs to predict radiation risks to individuals and/or the collective population from exposures to accidental releases of radioactive materials. When used together, these two codes provide a consistent, comprehensive tool to estimate not only the risks to specific individuals but also the distribution of risks in the exposed population and the total number of individuals within a specific level of risk. Prompt and latent fatalities are estimated for the exposed population, and from these, the risk to an average individual can be derived. Uncertainty in weather conditions is considered by estimating both the ''median'' and the ''maximum'' population doses based on the frequency distribution of wind speeds and stabilities for a given site. The importance of including all dispersible particles (particles smaller than about 100 μm) for dose and health risk analyses from nonfiltered releases for receptor locations within about 10 km from a release has been investigated. The dose contribution of the large particles (> 10 μm) has been shown to be substantially greater than those from the small particles for the dose receptors in various release and exposure conditions. These conditions include, particularly, elevated releases, strong wind weather, and exposure pathways associated with ground-deposited material over extended periods of time

  5. Diabetes and end of life: ethical and methodological issues in gathering evidence to guide care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, Trisha; Duggan, Nicole; Savage, Sally; Martin, Peter

    2013-03-01

    Providing palliative care for people with diabetes at the end of life is part of the chronic disease care trajectory, but end of life care is complex and the presence of diabetes further complicates management. The aim of the paper is to discuss the ethical and methodological issues encountered when undertaking research to develop guidelines for managing diabetes at the end of life and the strategies used to address the issues. The issues emerged as we developed guidelines for managing diabetes at the end of life, which included conducting individual interviews with 14 people with diabetes requiring palliative care and 10 family members. A reflexive researcher journal was maintained throughout the guideline development process. The interview transcripts and researcher's journal were analysed to determine key methodological, ethical and researcher-related issues. Key themes were vulnerability of the sampling population, methodological issues included recruiting participants and ensuring rigor, ethical issues concerned benefit and risk, justice, autonomy, privacy, professional boundaries and informed consent. Researcher-related issues were identified such as managing participant distress and their own emotional distress. People were willing to discuss end of life diabetes management preferences. Undertaking research with people at the end of life is complex because of their vulnerability and the ethical issues involved. However, the ethical principles of autonomy and justice apply and people should be given the relevant information and opportunity to decide whether to participate or not. © 2012 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Caring Sciences © 2012 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  6. Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

    2012-01-01

    The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

  7. Life Prediction/Reliability Data of Glass-Ceramic Material Determined for Radome Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    Brittle materials, ceramics, are candidate materials for a variety of structural applications for a wide range of temperatures. However, the process of slow crack growth, occurring in any loading configuration, limits the service life of structural components. Therefore, it is important to accurately determine the slow crack growth parameters required for component life prediction using an appropriate test methodology. This test methodology also should be useful in determining the influence of component processing and composition variables on the slow crack growth behavior of newly developed or existing materials, thereby allowing the component processing and composition to be tailored and optimized to specific needs. Through the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), the authors recently developed two test methods to determine the life prediction parameters of ceramics. The two test standards, ASTM 1368 for room temperature and ASTM C 1465 for elevated temperatures, were published in the 2001 Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol. 15.01. Briefly, the test method employs constant stress-rate (or dynamic fatigue) testing to determine flexural strengths as a function of the applied stress rate. The merit of this test method lies in its simplicity: strengths are measured in a routine manner in flexure at four or more applied stress rates with an appropriate number of test specimens at each applied stress rate. The slow crack growth parameters necessary for life prediction are then determined from a simple relationship between the strength and the applied stress rate. Extensive life prediction testing was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center using the developed ASTM C 1368 test method to determine the life prediction parameters of a glass-ceramic material that the Navy will use for radome applications.

  8. European Network of Excellence on NPP residual lifetime prediction methodologies (NULIFE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badea, M.; Vidican, D.

    2006-01-01

    Within Europe massive investments in nuclear power have been made to meet present and future energy needs. The majority of nuclear reactors have been operating for longer than 20 years and their continuing safe operation depends crucially on effective lifetime management. Furthermore, to extend the economic return on investment and environmental benefits, it is necessary to ensure in advance the safe operation of nuclear reactors for 60 years, a period which is typically 20 years in excess of nominal design life. This depends on a clear understanding of, and predictive capability for, how safety margins may be maintained as components degrade under operational conditions. Ageing mechanisms, environment effects and complex loadings increase the likelihood of damage to safety relevant systems, structures and components. The ability to claim increased benefits from reduced conservatism via improved assessments is therefore of great value. Harmonisation and qualification are essential for industrial exploitation of approaches developed for life prediction methodology. Several European organisations and networks have been at the forefront of the development of advanced methodologies in this area. However, these efforts have largely been made at national level and their overall impact and benefit (in comparison to the situation in the USA) has been reduced by fragmentation. There is a need to restructure the networking approach in order to create a single organisational entity capable of working at European level to produce and exploit R and D in support of the safe and competitive operation of nuclear power plants. It is also critical to ensure the competitiveness of European plant life management (PLIM) services at international level, in particular with the USA and Asian countries. To the above challenges the European Network on European research in residual lifetime prediction methodologies (NULIFE) will: - Create a Europe-wide body in order to achieve scientific and

  9. Translating Oral Health-Related Quality of Life Measures: Are There Alternative Methodologies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brondani, Mario; He, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Translating existing sociodental indicators to another language involves a rigorous methodology, which can be costly. Free-of-charge online translator tools are available, but have not been evaluated in the context of research involving quality of life measures. To explore the value of using online translator tools to develop oral health-related…

  10. Neural Network Modeling to Predict Shelf Life of Greenhouse Lettuce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Chin Lin

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse-grown butter lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. can potentially be stored for 21 days at constant 0°C. When storage temperature was increased to 5°C or 10°C, shelf life was shortened to 14 or 10 days, respectively, in our previous observations. Also, commercial shelf life of 7 to 10 days is common, due to postharvest temperature fluctuations. The objective of this study was to establish neural network (NN models to predict the remaining shelf life (RSL under fluctuating postharvest temperatures. A box of 12 - 24 lettuce heads constituted a sample unit. The end of the shelf life of each head was determined when it showed initial signs of decay or yellowing. Air temperatures inside a shipping box were recorded. Daily average temperatures in storage and averaged shelf life of each box were used as inputs, and the RSL was modeled as an output. An R2 of 0.57 could be observed when a simple NN structure was employed. Since the "future" (or remaining storage temperatures were unavailable at the time of making a prediction, a second NN model was introduced to accommodate a range of future temperatures and associated shelf lives. Using such 2-stage NN models, an R2 of 0.61 could be achieved for predicting RSL. This study indicated that NN modeling has potential for cold chain quality control and shelf life prediction.

  11. Typology of end-of-life priorities in Saudi females: averaging analysis and Q-methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammami, Muhammad M; Hammami, Safa; Amer, Hala A; Khodr, Nesrine A

    2016-01-01

    Understanding culture-and sex-related end-of-life preferences is essential to provide quality end-of-life care. We have previously explored end-of-life choices in Saudi males and found important culture-related differences and that Q-methodology is useful in identifying intraculture, opinion-based groups. Here, we explore Saudi females' end-of-life choices. A volunteer sample of 68 females rank-ordered 47 opinion statements on end-of-life issues into a nine-category symmetrical distribution. The ranking scores of the statements were analyzed by averaging analysis and Q-methodology. The mean age of the females in the sample was 30.3 years (range, 19-55 years). Among them, 51% reported average religiosity, 78% reported very good health, 79% reported very good life quality, and 100% reported high-school education or more. The extreme five overall priorities were to be able to say the statement of faith, be at peace with God, die without having the body exposed, maintain dignity, and resolve all conflicts. The extreme five overall dis-priorities were to die in the hospital, die well dressed, be informed about impending death by family/friends rather than doctor, die at peak of life, and not know if one has a fatal illness. Q-methodology identified five opinion-based groups with qualitatively different characteristics: "physical and emotional privacy concerned, family caring" (younger, lower religiosity), "whole person" (higher religiosity), "pain and informational privacy concerned" (lower life quality), "decisional privacy concerned" (older, higher life quality), and "life quantity concerned, family dependent" (high life quality, low life satisfaction). Out of the extreme 14 priorities/dis-priorities for each group, 21%-50% were not represented among the extreme 20 priorities/dis-priorities for the entire sample. Consistent with the previously reported findings in Saudi males, transcendence and dying in the hospital were the extreme end-of-life priority and dis

  12. Typology of end-of-life priorities in Saudi females: averaging analysis and Q-methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammami, Muhammad M; Hammami, Safa; Amer, Hala A; Khodr, Nesrine A

    2016-01-01

    Background Understanding culture-and sex-related end-of-life preferences is essential to provide quality end-of-life care. We have previously explored end-of-life choices in Saudi males and found important culture-related differences and that Q-methodology is useful in identifying intraculture, opinion-based groups. Here, we explore Saudi females’ end-of-life choices. Methods A volunteer sample of 68 females rank-ordered 47 opinion statements on end-of-life issues into a nine-category symmetrical distribution. The ranking scores of the statements were analyzed by averaging analysis and Q-methodology. Results The mean age of the females in the sample was 30.3 years (range, 19–55 years). Among them, 51% reported average religiosity, 78% reported very good health, 79% reported very good life quality, and 100% reported high-school education or more. The extreme five overall priorities were to be able to say the statement of faith, be at peace with God, die without having the body exposed, maintain dignity, and resolve all conflicts. The extreme five overall dis-priorities were to die in the hospital, die well dressed, be informed about impending death by family/friends rather than doctor, die at peak of life, and not know if one has a fatal illness. Q-methodology identified five opinion-based groups with qualitatively different characteristics: “physical and emotional privacy concerned, family caring” (younger, lower religiosity), “whole person” (higher religiosity), “pain and informational privacy concerned” (lower life quality), “decisional privacy concerned” (older, higher life quality), and “life quantity concerned, family dependent” (high life quality, low life satisfaction). Out of the extreme 14 priorities/dis-priorities for each group, 21%–50% were not represented among the extreme 20 priorities/dis-priorities for the entire sample. Conclusion Consistent with the previously reported findings in Saudi males, transcendence and dying in

  13. Simulation work of fatigue life prediction of rubber automotive components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samad, M S A; Ali, Aidy

    2010-01-01

    The usage of rubbers has always been so important, especially in automotive industries. Rubbers have a hyper elastic behaviour which is the ability to withstand very large strain without failure. The normal applications for rubbers are used for shock absorption, sound isolation and mounting. In this study, the predictions of fatigue life of an engine mount of rubber automotive components were presented. The finite element analysis was performed to predict the critical part and the strain output were incorporated into fatigue model for prediction. The predicted result shows agreement in term of failure location of rubber mount.

  14. Thermomechanical fatigue life prediction of high temperature components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seifert, Thomas; Hartrott, Philipp von; Riedel, Hermann; Siegele, Dieter [Fraunhofer-Inst. fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    The aim of the work described in this paper is to provide a computational method for fatigue life prediction of high temperature components, in which the time and temperature dependent fatigue crack growth is a relevant damage mechanism. The fatigue life prediction is based on a law for microcrack growth and a fracture mechanics estimate of the cyclic crack tip opening displacement. In addition, a powerful model for nonisothermal cyclic plasticity is employed, and an efficient laboratory test procedure is proposed for the determination of the model parameters. The models are efficiently implemented into finite element programs and are used to predict the fatigue life of a cast iron exhaust manifold and a notch in the perimeter of a turbine rotor made of a ferritic/martensitic 10%-chromium steel. (orig.)

  15. Fatigue crack initiation and growth life prediction with statistical consideration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, J.D.; Choi, S.H.; Kwak, S.G.; Chun, K.O.

    1991-01-01

    Life prediction or residual life prediction of structures or machines is one of the most strongly world wide needed problems as requirement in the stage of slowly developing economy which comes after rapidly and highly developing stage. For the purpose of statistical life prediction, fatigue test was conducted under the 3 stress levels, and for each stress level, 20 specimens are used. The statistical properties of the crack growth parameter m and C in the fatigue crack growth law of da/dN = C(ΔK) m , and the relationship between m and C, and the statistical distribution pattern of fatigue crack initiation, growth and fracture lives can be obtained by experimental results

  16. Fracture Mechanics Prediction of Fatigue Life of Aluminum Highway Bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rom, Søren; Agerskov, Henning

    2015-01-01

    Fracture mechanics prediction of the fatigue life of aluminum highway bridges under random loading is studied. The fatigue life of welded joints has been determined from fracture mechanics analyses and the results obtained have been compared with results from experimental investigations. The fati......Fracture mechanics prediction of the fatigue life of aluminum highway bridges under random loading is studied. The fatigue life of welded joints has been determined from fracture mechanics analyses and the results obtained have been compared with results from experimental investigations...... against fatigue in aluminum bridges, may give results which are unconservative. Furthermore, it was in both investigations found that the validity of the results obtained from Miner's rule will depend on the distribution of the load history in tension and compression....

  17. Profiled Roller Stress/Fatigue Life Analysis Methodology and Establishment of an Appropriate Stress/Life Exponent

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this work was to determine the three dimensional volumetric stress field, surface pressure distribution and actual contact area between a 0.50" square roller with different crown profiles and a flat raceway surface using Finite Element Analysis. The 3-dimensional stress field data was used in conjunction with several bearing fatigue life theories to extract appropriate values for stress-life exponents. Also, results of the FEA runs were used to evaluate the laminated roller model presently used for stress and life prediction.

  18. Life Prediction on a T700 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Cylinder with Limited Accelerated Life Testing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Xiaobing

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An accelerated life testing investigation was conducted on a composite cylinder that consists of aluminum alloy and T700 carbon fiber. The ultimate failure stress predictions of cylinders were obtained by the mixing rule and verified by the blasting static pressure method. Based on the stress prediction of cylinder under working conditions, the constant stress accelerated life test of the cylinder was designed. However, the failure data cannot be sufficiently obtained by the accelerated life test due to the time limitation. Therefore, most of the data presented to be high censored in high stress level and zero-failure data in low stress level. When using the traditional method for rupture life prediction, the results showed to be of lower confidence. In this study, the consistency of failure mechanism for carbon fiber and cylinder was analyzed firstly. According to the analysis result, the statistical test information of carbon fiber could be utilized for the accelerated model constitution. Then, rupture life prediction method for cylinder was proposed based on the accelerated life test data and carbon fiber test data. In this way, the life prediction accuracy of cylinder could be improved obviously, and the results showed that the accuracy of this method increased by 35%.

  19. Clearance Prediction Methodology Needs Fundamental Improvement: Trends Common to Rat and Human Hepatocytes/Microsomes and Implications for Experimental Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, F L; Houston, J B; Hallifax, D

    2017-11-01

    Although prediction of clearance using hepatocytes and liver microsomes has long played a decisive role in drug discovery, it is widely acknowledged that reliably accurate prediction is not yet achievable despite the predominance of hepatically cleared drugs. Physiologically mechanistic methodology tends to underpredict clearance by several fold, and empirical correction of this bias is confounded by imprecision across drugs. Understanding the causes of prediction uncertainty has been slow, possibly reflecting poor resolution of variables associated with donor source and experimental methods, particularly for the human situation. It has been reported that among published human hepatocyte predictions there was a tendency for underprediction to increase with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, suggesting an inherent limitation using this particular system. This implied an artifactual rate limitation in vitro, although preparative effects on cell stability and performance were not yet resolved from assay design limitations. Here, to resolve these issues further, we present an up-to-date and comprehensive examination of predictions from published rat as well as human studies (where n = 128 and 101 hepatocytes and n = 71 and 83 microsomes, respectively) to assess system performance more independently. We report a clear trend of increasing underprediction with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, which is similar both between species and between in vitro systems. Hence, prior concerns arising specifically from human in vitro systems may be unfounded and the focus of investigation in the future should be to minimize the potential in vitro assay limitations common to whole cells and subcellular fractions. Copyright © 2017 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

  20. A New Approach to Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Nucleation and Growth (Preprint)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McClung, R. C; Francis, W. L; Hudak, S. J

    2006-01-01

    Prediction of total fatigue life in components is often performed by summing "initiation" and "propagation" life phases, where initiation life is based on stress-life or strain-life methods calibrated...

  1. Methodology of life cycle cost with risk expenditure for offshore process at conceptual design stage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Kiil; Chang, Daejun; Chang, Kwangpil; Rhee, Taejin; Lee, In-Beum

    2011-01-01

    This study proposed a new LCC (life cycle cost) methodology with the risk expenditure taken into account for comparative evaluation of offshore process options at their conceptual design stage. The risk expenditure consisted of the failure risk expenditure and the accident risk expenditure. The former accounted for the production loss and the maintenance expense due to equipment failures while the latter reflected the asset damage and the fatality worth caused by disastrous accidents such as fire and explosion. It was demonstrated that the new LCC methodology was capable of playing the role of a process selection basis in choosing the best of the liquefaction process options including the power generation systems for a floating LNG (Liquefied natural gas) production facility. Without the risk expenditure, a simple economic comparison apparently favored the mixed refrigerant cycle which had the better efficiency. The new methodology with the risk expenditure, however, indicated that the nitrogen expansion cycle driven by steam turbines should be the optimum choice, mainly due to its better availability and safety. -- Highlights: → The study presented the methodology of the LCC with the risk expenditure for the conceptual design of offshore processes. → The proposed methodology demonstrated the applicability of the liquefaction unit with the power generation system of LNG FPSO. → Without the risk expenditure, a simple economic comparison apparently favored the mixed refrigerant cycle which had the better efficiency. → The new methodology indicated that the nitrogen expansion cycle driven by steam turbines is the optimum choice due to its better availability and safety.

  2. The work environment disability-adjusted life year for use with life cycle assessment: a methodological approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Kelly A; Gray, George M; Francis, Royce A; Lloyd, Shannon M; LaPuma, Peter

    2013-03-06

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a systems-based method used to determine potential impacts to the environment associated with a product throughout its life cycle. Conclusions from LCA studies can be applied to support decisions regarding product design or public policy, therefore, all relevant inputs (e.g., raw materials, energy) and outputs (e.g., emissions, waste) to the product system should be evaluated to estimate impacts. Currently, work-related impacts are not routinely considered in LCA. The objectives of this paper are: 1) introduce the work environment disability-adjusted life year (WE-DALY), one portion of a characterization factor used to express the magnitude of impacts to human health attributable to work-related exposures to workplace hazards; 2) outline the methods for calculating the WE-DALY; 3) demonstrate the calculation; and 4) highlight strengths and weaknesses of the methodological approach. The concept of the WE-DALY and the methodological approach to its calculation is grounded in the World Health Organization's disability-adjusted life year (DALY). Like the DALY, the WE-DALY equation considers the years of life lost due to premature mortality and the years of life lived with disability outcomes to estimate the total number of years of healthy life lost in a population. The equation requires input in the form of the number of fatal and nonfatal injuries and illnesses that occur in the industries relevant to the product system evaluated in the LCA study, the age of the worker at the time of the fatal or nonfatal injury or illness, the severity of the injury or illness, and the duration of time lived with the outcomes of the injury or illness. The methodological approach for the WE-DALY requires data from various sources, multi-step instructions to determine each variable used in the WE-DALY equation, and assumptions based on professional opinion. Results support the use of the WE-DALY in a characterization factor in LCA. Integrating

  3. Prediction Methodology for Proton Single Event Burnout: Application to a STRIPFET Device

    CERN Document Server

    Siconolfi, Sara; Oser, Pascal; Spiezia, Giovanni; Hubert, Guillaume; David, Jean-Pierre

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a single event burnout (SEB) sensitivity characterization for power MOSFETs, independent from tests, through a prediction model issued from TCAD analysis and the knowledge of device topology. The methodology is applied to a STRIPFET device and compared to proton data obtained at PSI, showing a good agreement in the order of magnitude of proton SEB cross section, and thus validating the prediction model as an alternative device characterization with respect to SEB.

  4. Models of expected returns on the brazilian market: Empirical tests using predictive methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Mussa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Predictive methodologies for test of the expected returns models are largely diffused on the international academic environment. However, these methods have not been used in Brazil in a systematic way. Generally, empirical studies proceeded with Brazilian stock market data are concentrated only in the first step of these methodologies. The purpose of this article was test and compare the models CAPM, 3-factors and 4-factors using a predictive methodology, considering two steps – temporal and cross-section regressions – with standard errors obtained by the techniques of Fama and Macbeth (1973. The results indicated the superiority of the 4-fators model as compared to the 3-fators model, and the superiority of the 3- factors model as compared to the CAPM, but no one of the tested models were enough on the explanation of the Brazilian stock returns. Contrary to some empirical evidences, that do not use predictive methodology, the size and momentum effect seem do not exist on the Brazilian capital markets, but there are evidences of the value effect and the relevance of the market for explanation of expected returns. These finds rise some questions, mainly caused by the originality of the methodology on the local market and by the fact that this subject is still incipient and polemic on the Brazilian academic environment.

  5. Development methodology for the software life cycle process of the safety software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, D. H.; Lee, S. S.; Cha, K. H.; Lee, C. S.; Kwon, K. C.; Han, H. B.

    2002-01-01

    A methodology for developing software life cycle processes (SLCP) is proposed to develop the digital safety-critical Engineered Safety Features - Component Control System (ESF-CCS) successfully. A software life cycle model is selected as the hybrid model mixed with waterfall, prototyping, and spiral models and is composed of two stages , development stages of prototype of ESF-CCS and ESF-CCS. To produce the software life cycle (SLC) for the Development of the Digital Reactor Safety System, the Activities referenced in IEEE Std. 1074-1997 are mapped onto the hybrid model. The SLCP is established after the available OPAs (Organizational Process Asset) are applied to the SLC Activities, and the known constraints are reconciled. The established SLCP describes well the software life cycle activities with which the Regulatory Authority provides

  6. Typology of end-of-life priorities in Saudi females: averaging analysis and Q-methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammami MM

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Muhammad M Hammami,1,2 Safa Hammami,1 Hala A Amer,1 Nesrine A Khodr1 1Clinical Studies and Empirical Ethics Department, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, 2College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Background: Understanding culture-and sex-related end-of-life preferences is essential to provide quality end-of-life care. We have previously explored end-of-life choices in Saudi males and found important culture-related differences and that Q-methodology is useful in identifying intraculture, opinion-based groups. Here, we explore Saudi females’ end-of-life choices.Methods: A volunteer sample of 68 females rank-ordered 47 opinion statements on end-of-life issues into a nine-category symmetrical distribution. The ranking scores of the statements were analyzed by averaging analysis and Q-methodology.Results: The mean age of the females in the sample was 30.3 years (range, 19–55 years. Among them, 51% reported average religiosity, 78% reported very good health, 79% reported very good life quality, and 100% reported high-school education or more. The extreme five overall priorities were to be able to say the statement of faith, be at peace with God, die without having the body exposed, maintain dignity, and resolve all conflicts. The extreme five overall dis-priorities were to die in the hospital, die well dressed, be informed about impending death by family/friends rather than doctor, die at peak of life, and not know if one has a fatal illness. Q-methodology identified five opinion-based groups with qualitatively different characteristics: “physical and emotional privacy concerned, family caring” (younger, lower religiosity, “whole person” (higher religiosity, “pain and informational privacy concerned” (lower life quality, “decisional privacy concerned” (older, higher life quality, and “life quantity concerned, family dependent” (high life quality, low life satisfaction. Out of the

  7. Development methodology for the software life cycle process of the safety software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, D. H.; Lee, S. S. [BNF Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Cha, K. H.; Lee, C. S.; Kwon, K. C.; Han, H. B. [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2002-05-01

    A methodology for developing software life cycle processes (SLCP) is proposed to develop the digital safety-critical Engineered Safety Features - Component Control System (ESF-CCS) successfully. A software life cycle model is selected as the hybrid model mixed with waterfall, prototyping, and spiral models and is composed of two stages , development stages of prototype of ESF-CCS and ESF-CCS. To produce the software life cycle (SLC) for the Development of the Digital Reactor Safety System, the Activities referenced in IEEE Std. 1074-1997 are mapped onto the hybrid model. The SLCP is established after the available OPAs (Organizational Process Asset) are applied to the SLC Activities, and the known constraints are reconciled. The established SLCP describes well the software life cycle activities with which the Regulatory Authority provides.

  8. Analysis of the link between a definition of sustainability and the life cycle methodologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Andreas; Herrmann, Ivan Tengbjerg; Bjørn, Anders

    2013-01-01

    explicit analysis of the claim has been made. The purpose of this article is to analyse this claim.An interpretation of the goals of sustainability, as outlined in the report Our Common Future (WCED 1987), which is the basis for most literature on sustainability assessment in the LCA community......It has been claimed that in order to assess the sustainability of products, a combination of the results from a life cycle assessment (LCA), social life cycle assessment (SLCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) is needed. Despite the frequent reference to this claim in the literature, very little......, is presented and detailed to a level enabling an analysis of the relation to the impact categories at midpoint level considered in life cycle (LC) methodologies.The interpretation of the definition of sustainability as outlined in Our Common Future (WCED 1987) suggests that the assessment of a product...

  9. Survey on damage mechanics models for fatigue life prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silitonga, S.; Maljaars, J.; Soetens, F.; Snijder, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    Engineering methods to predict the fatigue life of structures have been available since the beginning of the 20th century. However, a practical problem arises from complex loading conditions and a significant concern is the accuracy of the methods under variable amplitude loading. This paper

  10. Innovative predictive maintenance concepts to improve life cycle management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinga, Tiedo

    2014-01-01

    For naval systems with typically long service lives, high sustainment costs and strict availability requirements, an effective and efficient life cycle management process is very important. In this paper four approaches are discussed to improve that process: physics of failure based predictive

  11. The life prediction study of Rokkasho reprocessing plant materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiuchi, K.; Yano, M.; Takizawa, M.; Shibata, S.

    1998-01-01

    The life prediction study of major equipment materials used in heavily corrosive nitric acid solutions of the RRP was carried out. The nitric acid recovery made of type 304ULC austenitic steel and the dissolver made of type 705 metallic zirconium are selected on the present study. This study is composed of major three programs, namely, the mock-up tests by small-sized equipments simulated to the practical design, laboratory tests for examining corrosion controlling factors by small specimens and to establish the data base system for the life prediction. Important parameters on this study was extracted with analyzing the past data of the life prediction on the Tokai reprocessing equipments. The mock-ups design was made by considering the quantitative evaluation of the most important parts on objective equipments, namely, heat conducting tubes in an acid recovery evaporator and a thermal jacket in a dissolver. From pre-examinations, the effects of radioactive species, nitric acid solution chemistry, the corrosion mechanisms were elucidated. Mock-up testing conditions corrosion monitoring methods and a data base concept for the the life prediction were selected from pre-examination data by referencing the plant operation planning. (author)

  12. Predicting Dissertation Methodology Choice among Doctoral Candidates at a Faith-Based University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunde, Rebecca

    2017-01-01

    Limited research has investigated dissertation methodology choice and the factors that contribute to this choice. Quantitative research is based in mathematics and scientific positivism, and qualitative research is based in constructivism. These underlying philosophical differences posit the question if certain factors predict dissertation…

  13. Shelf Life Prediction for Canned Gudeg using Accelerated Shelf Life Testing (ASLT) Based on Arrhenius Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhayati, R.; Rahayu NH, E.; Susanto, A.; Khasanah, Y.

    2017-04-01

    Gudeg is traditional food from Yogyakarta. It is consist of jackfruit, chicken, egg and coconut milk. Gudeg generally have a short shelf life. Canning or commercial sterilization is one way to extend the shelf life of gudeg. This aims of this research is to predict the shelf life of Andrawinaloka canned gudeg with Accelerated Shelf Life Test methods, Arrhenius model. Canned gudeg stored at three different temperature, there are 37, 50 and 60°C for two months. Measuring the number of Thio Barbituric Acid (TBA), as a critical aspect, were tested every 7 days. Arrhenius model approach is done with the equation order 0 and order 1. The analysis showed that the equation of order 0 can be used as an approach to estimating the shelf life of canned gudeg. The storage of Andrawinaloka canned gudeg at 30°C is predicted untill 21 months and 24 months for 25°C.

  14. Reinforcement Corrosion: Numerical Simulation and Service Life Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Alexander

    defects and b) define the end of service life once reinforcement corrosion is initiated neglecting corrosion processes during the propagation stage. The goal of this work was to develop a framework for the service life prediction of reinforced concrete covering initiation and propagation of chloride......Modelling of deterioration processes in concrete structures plays an increasing role in the design of reinforced concrete structures. Large sums are spent every year to ensure the durability of concrete structures, especially towards reinforcement corrosion. Improved durability provides increased...... structural reliability, economical improvements in form of less need for maintenance and repair as well as increased sustainability due to an increased energy and resource efficiency. Several service life prediction models dealing with reinforcement corrosion in concrete structurescan be found...

  15. Background for spatial differentiation in life cycle impact assessment. The EDIP2003 methodology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Potting, José; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2004-01-01

    The code of practice of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the recent international standards and technical reports from ISO are widely accepted as general frameworks for Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) but they are not detailed methodological references, since international...... between modelled impact and the occurrence of actual impact. This technical report aims to contribute to a solution of the poor accuracy of the assessed impact in typical LCA resulting from the present disregard of spatial information in LCA....

  16. Life cycle costing of food waste: A review of methodological approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Menna, Fabio; Dietershagen, Jana; Loubiere, Marion; Vittuari, Matteo

    2018-03-01

    Food waste (FW) is a global problem that is receiving increasing attention due to its environmental and economic impacts. Appropriate FW prevention, valorization, and management routes could mitigate or avoid these effects. Life cycle thinking and approaches, such as life cycle costing (LCC), may represent suitable tools to assess the sustainability of these routes. This study analyzes different LCC methodological aspects and approaches to evaluate FW management and valorization routes. A systematic literature review was carried out with a focus on different LCC approaches, their application to food, FW, and waste systems, as well as on specific methodological aspects. The review consisted of three phases: a collection phase, an iterative phase with experts' consultation, and a final literature classification. Journal papers and reports were retrieved from selected databases and search engines. The standardization of LCC methodologies is still in its infancy due to a lack of consensus over definitions and approaches. Research on the life cycle cost of FW is limited and generally focused on FW management, rather than prevention or valorization of specific flows. FW prevention, valorization, and management require a consistent integration of LCC and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to avoid tradeoffs between environmental and economic impacts. This entails a proper investigation of methodological differences between attributional and consequential modelling in LCC, especially with regard to functional unit, system boundaries, multi-functionality, included cost, and assessed impacts. Further efforts could also aim at finding the most effective and transparent categorization of costs, in particular when dealing with multiple stakeholders sustaining costs of FW. Interpretation of results from LCC of FW should take into account the effect on larger economic systems. Additional key performance indicators and analytical tools could be included in consequential approaches

  17. Fatigue Life Prediction in Rapid Die Casting - Preliminary Work in View of Current Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuan Huat Ng; Grote, Karl-Heinrich; Baehr, Ruediger

    2007-01-01

    Numerical simulation technique as a prediction tool is slowly adopted in metal casting industry for predicting design modelling solidification analysis. The reasons for this activity is found in the need to further enhance the geometrical design and mechanical properties of the tool design and the correct prediction methodology to fulfil industrial needs. The present state of numerical simulation capabilities in rapid die casting technologies is reviewed and the failure mode mechanisms of thermal fatigue, aimed at developing a numerical simulation with a systematic design guidance for predicting the thermal cyclic loading analysis and improvement is presented along with several other methods. The economic benefits of a numerical simulation technique in die casting are limited to tool life time, mechanical properties and design guidance. The extensive computer capabilities of a numerical simulation with a systematic design guidance methodology are exploited to provide a solution for flexible design, mechanical properties and mould life time. Related research carried out worldwide by different organisations and academic institutions are discussed

  18. Towards a unified fatigue life prediction method for marine structures

    CERN Document Server

    Cui, Weicheng; Wang, Fang

    2014-01-01

    In order to apply the damage tolerance design philosophy to design marine structures, accurate prediction of fatigue crack growth under service conditions is required. Now, more and more people have realized that only a fatigue life prediction method based on fatigue crack propagation (FCP) theory has the potential to explain various fatigue phenomena observed. In this book, the issues leading towards the development of a unified fatigue life prediction (UFLP) method based on FCP theory are addressed. Based on the philosophy of the UFLP method, the current inconsistency between fatigue design and inspection of marine structures could be resolved. This book presents the state-of-the-art and recent advances, including those by the authors, in fatigue studies. It is designed to lead the future directions and to provide a useful tool in many practical applications. It is intended to address to engineers, naval architects, research staff, professionals and graduates engaged in fatigue prevention design and survey ...

  19. Life-cycle energy optimisation : A proposed methodology for integrating environmental considerations early in the vehicle engineering design process

    OpenAIRE

    O'Reilly, Ciarán J.; Göransson, Peter; Funazaki, Atsushi; Suzuki, Tetsuya; Edlund, Stefan; Gunnarsson, Cecilia; Lundow, Jan-Olov; Cerin, Pontus; Cameron, Christopher J.; Wennhage, Per; Potting, José

    2016-01-01

    To enable the consideration of life cycle environmental impacts in the early stages of vehicle design, a methodology using the proxy of life cycle energy is proposed in this paper. The trade-offs in energy between vehicle production, operational performance and end-of-life are formulated as a mathematical problem, and simultaneously balanced with other transport-related functionalities, and may be optimised. The methodology is illustrated through an example design study, which is deliberately...

  20. Risk-informed prediction of feeder end of life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jyrkama, M.; Pandey, M.

    2011-01-01

    The operating life of feeder piping is negatively impacted by flow accelerated corrosion (FAC). In this study, an assessment of a large set of inspection data reveals that FAC in feeders is a relatively stationary process, with variability only at the local scale. Given the added uncertainty from inspection coverage, a new method for estimating the thinning rate and feeder EOL is developed using a probabilistic approach. The results of the study illustrate the benefits of the methodology in supporting risk-informed decision making at the station by quantifying the present and incremental risk in the feeder system over time. (author)

  1. Risk-informed prediction of feeder end of life

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jyrkama, M.; Pandey, M. [Univ. of Waterloo, Ontario (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    The operating life of feeder piping is negatively impacted by flow accelerated corrosion (FAC). In this study, an assessment of a large set of inspection data reveals that FAC in feeders is a relatively stationary process, with variability only at the local scale. Given the added uncertainty from inspection coverage, a new method for estimating the thinning rate and feeder EOL is developed using a probabilistic approach. The results of the study illustrate the benefits of the methodology in supporting risk-informed decision making at the station by quantifying the present and incremental risk in the feeder system over time. (author)

  2. A neural network based methodology to predict site-specific spectral acceleration values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamatchi, P.; Rajasankar, J.; Ramana, G. V.; Nagpal, A. K.

    2010-12-01

    A general neural network based methodology that has the potential to replace the computationally-intensive site-specific seismic analysis of structures is proposed in this paper. The basic framework of the methodology consists of a feed forward back propagation neural network algorithm with one hidden layer to represent the seismic potential of a region and soil amplification effects. The methodology is implemented and verified with parameters corresponding to Delhi city in India. For this purpose, strong ground motions are generated at bedrock level for a chosen site in Delhi due to earthquakes considered to originate from the central seismic gap of the Himalayan belt using necessary geological as well as geotechnical data. Surface level ground motions and corresponding site-specific response spectra are obtained by using a one-dimensional equivalent linear wave propagation model. Spectral acceleration values are considered as a target parameter to verify the performance of the methodology. Numerical studies carried out to validate the proposed methodology show that the errors in predicted spectral acceleration values are within acceptable limits for design purposes. The methodology is general in the sense that it can be applied to other seismically vulnerable regions and also can be updated by including more parameters depending on the state-of-the-art in the subject.

  3. Challenges in implementing a Planetary Boundaries based Life-Cycle Impact Assessment methodology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryberg, Morten; Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Richardson, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    of resolving the challenges and developing such methodology is discussed. The challenges are related to technical issues, i.e., modelling and including the Earth System processes and their control variables as impact categories in Life-Cycle Impact Assessment and to theoretical considerations with respect...... to the interpretation and use of Life-Cycle Assessment results in accordance with the Planetary Boundary framework. The identified challenges require additional research before a Planetary Boundaries based Life-Cycle Impact Assessment method can be developed. Research on modelling the impacts on Earth System processes......Impacts on the environment from human activities are now threatening to exceed thresholds for central Earth System processes, potentially moving the Earth System out of the Holocene state. To avoid such consequences, the concept of Planetary Boundaries was defined in 2009, and updated in 2015...

  4. Methodologies for predicting the part-load performance of aero-derivative gas turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haglind, Fredrik; Elmegaard, Brian

    2009-01-01

    Prediction of the part-load performance of gas turbines is advantageous in various applications. Sometimes reasonable part-load performance is sufficient, while in other cases complete agreement with the performance of an existing machine is desirable. This paper is aimed at providing some guidance...... on methodologies for predicting part-load performance of aero-derivative gas turbines. Two different design models – one simple and one more complex – are created. Subsequently, for each of these models, the part-load performance is predicted using component maps and turbine constants, respectively. Comparisons...... with manufacturer data are made. With respect to the design models, the simple model, featuring a compressor, combustor and turbines, results in equally good performance prediction in terms of thermal efficiency and exhaust temperature as does a more complex model. As for part-load predictions, the results suggest...

  5. Measurement techniques and instruments suitable for life-prediction testing of photovoltaic arrays. Interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, G.T.; Sliemers, F.A.; Deringer, G.C.; Wood, V.E.; Wilkes, K.E.; Gaines, G.B.; Carmichael, D.C.

    1978-01-15

    The validation of a service life of 20 years for low-cost photovoltaic arrays must be accomplished through accelerated life-prediction tests. A methodology for such tests has been developed in a preceding study. The results discussed consist of the initial identification and assessment of all known measurement techniques and instruments that might be used in these life-prediction tests. Array failure modes, relevant materials property changes, and primary degradation mechanisms are discussed as a prerequisite to identifying suitable measurement techniques and instruments. Candidate techniques and instruments are identified on the basis of extensive reviews of published and unpublished information. These methods are organized in six measurement categories--chemical, electrical, optical, thermal, mechanical, and ''other physicals''. Using specified evaluation criteria, the most promising techniques and instruments for use in life-prediction tests of arrays are then selected. These recommended techniques and their characteristics are described. Recommendations are made regarding establishment of the adequacy, particularly with respect to precision, of the more fully developed techniques for this application, and regarding the experimental evaluation of promising developmental techniques. Measurement needs not satisfied by presently available techniques/instruments are also identified.

  6. Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark Jay

    The inert strength and fatigue performance of a diesel engine exhaust valve made from silicon nitride (Si3N4) ceramic were assessed. The Si3N4 characterized in this study was manufactured by Saint Gobain/Norton Industrial Ceramics and was designated as NT551. The evaluation was made utilizing a probabilistic life prediction algorithm that combined censored test specimen strength data with a Weibull distribution function and the stress field of the ceramic valve obtained from finite element analysis. The major assumptions of the life prediction algorithm are that the bulk ceramic material is isotropic and homogeneous and that the strength-limiting flaws are uniformly distributed. The results from mechanical testing indicated that NT551 was not a homogeneous ceramic and that its strength were functions of temperature, loading rate, and machining orientation. Fractographic analysis identified four different failure modes; 2 were identified as inhomogeneities that were located throughout the bulk of NT551 and were due to processing operations. The fractographic analysis concluded that the strength degradation of NT551 observed from the temperature and loading rate test parameters was due to a change of state that occurred in its secondary phase. Pristine and engine-tested valves made from NT551 were loaded to failure and the inert strengths were obtained. Fractographic analysis of the valves identified the same four failure mechanisms as found with the test specimens. The fatigue performance and the inert strength of the Si3N 4 valves were assessed from censored and uncensored test specimen strength data, respectively. The inert strength failure probability predictions were compared to the inert strength of the Si3N4 valves. The inert strength failure probability predictions were more conservative than the strength of the valves. The lack of correlation between predicted and actual valve strength was due to the nonuniform distribution of inhomogeneities present in NT

  7. Development and application of the methodology to establish life extension and modernization plan of aged hydropower plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jong Sung; Kwon, Hyuck Cheon; Song, Byung Hun; Kwon, Chang Seop

    2009-01-01

    This paper provides how to establish an integrated plan for LE (Life Extension) and MD (MoDernization) of aged hydropower plants. The methodology is developed through review of overseas/domestic LE/MD histories, investigation of the previous overseas methodologies and consideration of domestic practices. The methodology includes reviews of the various factors such as condition, operation and maintenance history, up-to-date technology, and economic benefit. In order to establish the life extension/modernization plan, the methodology is applied to the domestic aged hydropower plants. Finally, priority rankings and draft practice plans for LE/MD are derived.

  8. A demand-centered, hybrid life-cycle methodology for city-scale greenhouse gas inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswami, Anu; Hillman, Tim; Janson, Bruce; Reiner, Mark; Thomas, Gregg

    2008-09-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting for individual cities is confounded by spatial scale and boundary effects that impact the allocation of regional material and energy flows. This paper develops a demand-centered, hybrid life-cycle-based methodology for conducting city-scale GHG inventories that incorporates (1) spatial allocation of surface and airline travel across colocated cities in larger metropolitan regions, and, (2) life-cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify the embodied energy of key urban materials--food, water, fuel, and concrete. The hybrid methodology enables cities to separately report the GHG impact associated with direct end-use of energy by cities (consistent with EPA and IPCC methods), as well as the impact of extra-boundary activities such as air travel and production of key urban materials (consistent with Scope 3 protocols recommended by the World Resources Institute). Application of this hybrid methodology to Denver, Colorado, yielded a more holistic GHG inventory that approaches a GHG footprint computation, with consistency of inclusions across spatial scale as well as convergence of city-scale per capita GHG emissions (approximately 25 mt CO2e/person/year) with state and national data. The method is shown to have significant policy impacts, and also demonstrates the utility of benchmarks in understanding energy use in various city sectors.

  9. Integrated Design Software Predicts the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramic Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-01-01

    Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated-temperature applications. As design protocols emerge for these material systems, designers must be aware of several innate features, including the degrading ability of ceramics to carry sustained load. Usually, time-dependent failure in ceramics occurs because of two different, delayedfailure mechanisms: slow crack growth and creep rupture. Slow crack growth initiates at a preexisting flaw and continues until a critical crack length is reached, causing catastrophic failure. Creep rupture, on the other hand, occurs because of bulk damage in the material: void nucleation and coalescence that eventually leads to macrocracks which then propagate to failure. Successful application of advanced ceramics depends on proper characterization of material behavior and the use of an appropriate design methodology. The life of a ceramic component can be predicted with the NASA Lewis Research Center's Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) integrated design programs. CARES/CREEP determines the expected life of a component under creep conditions, and CARES/LIFE predicts the component life due to fast fracture and subcritical crack growth. The previously developed CARES/LIFE program has been used in numerous industrial and Government applications.

  10. Shelf life prediction of radiation sterilized polymeric materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandford, Craig; Woo, Lecon

    1988-01-01

    The functional properties of many polymers employed in medical disposables are unaffected by sterilizing doses of ionizing radiation. However, some materials (PVC, polypropylene, cellulosics, etc.) undergo undesirable changes which continue to occur for the shelf life of the product. In many cases, conventional accelerated aging techniques do not accurately predict the real time properties of the materials. As real time aging is not generally practical, it has become necessary to develop accelerated aging techniques which can predict the functional properties of a material for the shelf life of the product. This presentation will address issues involved in developing these tests. Real time physical property data is compared to data generated by various acceleration methods. (author)

  11. DNA Sequencing and Predictions of the Cosmic Theory of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  12. A simulation methodology of spacer grid residual spring deflection for predictive and interpretative purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, K. T.; Kim, H. K.; Yoon, K. H.

    1994-01-01

    The in-reactor fuel rod support conditions against the fretting wear-induced damage can be evaluated by spacer grid residual spring deflection. In order to predict the spacer grid residual spring deflection as a function of burnup for various spring designs, a simulation methodology of spacer grid residual spring deflection has been developed and implemented in the GRIDFORCE program. The simulation methodology takes into account cladding creep rate, initial spring deflection, initial spring force, and spring force relaxation rate as the key parameters affecting the residual spring deflection. The simulation methodology developed in this study can be utilized as an effective tool in evaluating the capability of a newly designed spacer grid spring to prevent the fretting wear-induced damage

  13. Simplified life cycle assessment models: methodological framework and applications to energy pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padey, Pierryves

    2013-01-01

    The energy transition debate is a key issue for today and the coming years. One of the challenges is to limit the environmental impacts of electricity production. Decision support tools, sufficiently accurate, simple to use, accounting for environmental aspects and favoring future energetic choices, must be implemented. However, the environmental assessment of the energy pathways is complex, and it means considering a two levels characterization. The 'energy pathway' is the first level and corresponds to its environmental distribution, to compare overall pathways. The 'system pathway' is the 2. level and compares environmental impacts of systems within each pathway. We have devised a generic methodology covering both necessary characterization levels by estimating the energy pathways environmental profiles while allowing a simple comparison of its systems environmental impacts. This methodology is based on the definition of a parameterized Life Cycle Assessment model and considers, through a Global Sensitivity Analysis, the environmental impacts of a large sample of systems representative of an energy pathway. As a second step, this methodology defines simplified models based on few key parameters identified as inducing the largest variability in the energy pathway environmental impacts. These models assess in a simple way the systems environmental impacts, avoiding any complex LCAs. This reduction methodology has been applied to the onshore wind power energy pathway in Europe and the photovoltaic energy pathway in France. (author)

  14. Prediction of work metabolism from heart rate measurements in forest work: some practical methodological issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubé, Philippe-Antoine; Imbeau, Daniel; Dubeau, Denise; Auger, Isabelle; Leone, Mario

    2015-01-01

    Individual heart rate (HR) to workload relationships were determined using 93 submaximal step-tests administered to 26 healthy participants attending physical activities in a university training centre (laboratory study) and 41 experienced forest workers (field study). Predicted maximum aerobic capacity (MAC) was compared to measured MAC from a maximal treadmill test (laboratory study) to test the effect of two age-predicted maximum HR Equations (220-age and 207-0.7 × age) and two clothing insulation levels (0.4 and 0.91 clo) during the step-test. Work metabolism (WM) estimated from forest work HR was compared against concurrent work V̇O2 measurements while taking into account the HR thermal component. Results show that MAC and WM can be accurately predicted from work HR measurements and simple regression models developed in this study (1% group mean prediction bias and up to 25% expected prediction bias for a single individual). Clothing insulation had no impact on predicted MAC nor age-predicted maximum HR equations. Practitioner summary: This study sheds light on four practical methodological issues faced by practitioners regarding the use of HR methodology to assess WM in actual work environments. More specifically, the effect of wearing work clothes and the use of two different maximum HR prediction equations on the ability of a submaximal step-test to assess MAC are examined, as well as the accuracy of using an individual's step-test HR to workload relationship to predict WM from HR data collected during actual work in the presence of thermal stress.

  15. Combined methodology of optimization and life cycle inventory for a biomass gasification based BCHP system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jiang-Jiang; Yang, Kun; Xu, Zi-Long; Fu, Chao; Li, Li; Zhou, Zun-Kai

    2014-01-01

    Biomass gasification based building cooling, heating, and power (BCHP) system is an effective distributed energy system to improve the utilization of biomass resources. This paper proposes a combined methodology of optimization method and life cycle inventory (LCI) for the biomass gasification based BCHP system. The life cycle models including biomass planting, biomass collection-storage-transportation, BCHP plant construction and operation, and BCHP plant demolition and recycle, are constructed to obtain economic cost, energy consumption and CO 2 emission in the whole service-life. Then, the optimization model for the biomass BCHP system including variables, objective function and solution method are presented. Finally, a biomass BCHP case in Harbin, China, is optimized under different optimization objectives, the life-cycle performances including cost, energy and CO 2 emission are obtained and the grey incidence approach is employed to evaluate their comprehensive performances of the biomass BCHP schemes. The results indicate that the life-cycle cost, energy efficiency and CO 2 emission of the biomass BCHP system are about 41.9 $ MWh −1 , 41% and 59.60 kg MWh −1 respectively. The optimized biomass BCHP configuration to minimize the life-cycle cost is the best scheme to achieve comprehensive benefit including cost, energy consumption, renewable energy ratio, steel consumption, and CO 2 emission. - Highlights: • Propose the combined method of optimization and LCI for biomass BCHP system. • Optimize the biomass BCHP system to minimize the life-cycle cost, energy and emission. • Obtain the optimized life-cycle cost, energy efficiency and CO 2 emission. • Select the best biomass BCHP scheme using grey incidence approach

  16. Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis addresses the service life concept on the fibre reinforced cementitious composites. The advantages and problems of adding fibre to a cementitious matrix and the influence on service life are described. In SBI Report 221, Service life prediction and cementitious somposites......, the factors affecting the pure cementitious composite are described. Different sizes and types of fibre reinforced crmentitious composites have been chosen to illustrate different ageing and deterioration mechanisms. Some ageing mechanisms can be accelerated and others cannot which is demonstrated in a test...... programme. Moisture, micro structural and mechanical properties were measured before, during and after ageing, with the purpose of giving a detailed "picture" of the materials during ageing....

  17. Failure analysis and seal life prediction for contacting mechanical seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J. J.; He, X. Y.; Wei, L.; Feng, X.

    2008-11-01

    Fault tree analysis method was applied to quantitatively investigate the causes of the leakage failure of mechanical seals. It is pointed out that the change of the surface topography is the main reasons causing the leakage of mechanical seals under the condition of constant preloads. Based on the fractal geometry theory, the relationship between the surface topography and working time were investigated by experiments, and the effects of unit load acting on seal face on leakage path in a mechanical seal were analyzed. The model of predicting seal life of mechanical seals was established on the basis of the relationship between the surface topography and working time and allowable leakage. The seal life of 108 mechanical seal operating at the system of diesel fuel storage and transportation was predicted and the problem of the condition monitoring for the long-period operation of mechanical seal was discussed by this method. The research results indicate that the method of predicting seal life of mechanical seals is feasible, and also is foundation to make scheduled maintenance time and to achieve safe-reliability and low-cost operation for industrial devices.

  18. Applying a life cycle decision methodology to Fernald waste management alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M.; Yerace, P.

    1996-01-01

    During the past five years, a number of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded efforts have demonstrated the technical efficacy of converting various forms of radioactive scrap metal (RSM) into useable products. From the development of large accelerator shielding blocks, to the construction of low-level waste containers, technology has been applied to this fabrication process in a safe and stakeholder supported manner. The potential health and safety risks to both workers and the public have been addressed. The question remains: can products be fabricated from RSM in a cost efficient and market competitive manner? This paper presents a methodology for use within DOE to evaluate the costs and benefits of recycling and reusing some RSM, rather than disposing of this RSM in an approved burial site. This life cycle decision methodology, developed by both the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and DOE Fernald, is the focus of the following analysis

  19. Methodologies and technologies for life assessment and management of coolant channels of Indian pressurised heavy water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rupani, B.B.; Sinha, S.K.; Sinha, R.K.

    2002-01-01

    coolant channels and various research publications in international journals formed the bases for evolution of the above safety methodologies. Today, the analytical models together with the safety evaluation methodologies have become an important tool for assessing fitness for service of individual pressure tube in different reactors. Apart from developing the above analytical tools and methodologies for safety evaluation, several systems and tools have been designed and developed to cater for the activities like remote inspection, online integrity monitoring and life extension etc., of our life management programme of coolant channel. Amongst the systems developed for remote inspection of the coolant channel such as Dry Visual Inspection System (DRYVIS), BARC Inspection System(BARCIS) and Hydraulic Remote Inside Diameter Measurement System (HYRIM) etc., BARCIS is more versatile in terms of its capability to carry out different type of measurements. Inspection of the coolant channel by BARCIS has been incorporated as an important activity in our life management programme of the coolant channel. A non destructive diagnostic technique based on the principle of vibration measurement has been developed to identify the contact between the pressure tube and calandria tube. This technique called 'Non Intrusive Vibration Diagnostic Technique (NIVDT)' is being used as a tool to screen the vulnerable pressure tubes so as reduce the reduce the inspection load. Tools and techniques developed for online integrity monitoring includes Sliver Sample Scraping Tool (SSST). At present, scraping operation can be carried out in both the dry and the wet channel of operating reactor. The development of SSST is intended for taking nondestructively sliver samples from the operating coolant channel. These sliver samples are then analysed to get hydrogen content in them. Measured hydrogen content helps not only in predicting the operating life of a coolant channel but also in improving the

  20. Alcohol, psychomotor-stimulants and behaviour: methodological considerations in preclinical models of early-life stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonnell-Dowling, Kate; Miczek, Klaus A

    2018-04-01

    In order to assess the risk associated with early-life stress, there has been an increase in the amount of preclinical studies investigating early-life stress. There are many challenges associated with investigating early-life stress in animal models and ensuring that such models are appropriate and clinically relevant. The purpose of this review is to highlight the methodological considerations in the design of preclinical studies investigating the effects of early-life stress on alcohol and psychomotor-stimulant intake and behaviour. The protocols employed for exploring early-life stress were investigated and summarised. Experimental variables include animals, stress models, and endpoints employed. The findings in this paper suggest that there is little consistency among these studies and so the interpretation of these results may not be as clinically relevant as previously thought. The standardisation of these simple stress procedures means that results will be more comparable between studies and that results generated will give us a more robust understanding of what can and may be happening in the human and veterinary clinic.

  1. Methodology of CO{sub 2} emission evaluation in the life cycle of office building facades

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taborianski, Vanessa Montoro; Prado, Racine T.A., E-mail: racine.prado@poli.usp.br

    2012-02-15

    The construction industry is one of the greatest sources of pollution because of the high level of energy consumption during its life cycle. In addition to using energy while constructing a building, several systems also use power while the building is operating, especially the air-conditioning system. Energy consumption for this system is related, among other issues, to external air temperature and the required internal temperature of the building. The facades are elements which present the highest level of ambient heat transfer from the outside to the inside of tall buildings. Thus, the type of facade has an influence on energy consumption during the building life cycle and, consequently, contributes to buildings' CO{sub 2} emissions, because these emissions are directly connected to energy consumption. Therefore, the aim is to help develop a methodology for evaluating CO{sub 2} emissions generated during the life cycle of office building facades. The results, based on the parameters used in this study, show that facades using structural glazing and uncolored glass emit the most CO{sub 2} throughout their life cycle, followed by brick facades covered with compound aluminum panels or ACM (Aluminum Composite Material), facades using structural glazing and reflective glass and brick facades with plaster coating. On the other hand, the typology of facade that emits less CO{sub 2} is brickwork and mortar because its thermal barrier is better than structural glazing facade and materials used to produce this facade are better than brickwork and ACM. Finally, an uncertainty analysis was conducted to verify the accuracy of the results attained. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We develop a methodology for evaluating CO{sub 2} emissions generated during the life cycle of office building facades. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This methodology is based in LCA. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We use an uncertainty analysis to verify the accuracy of the results

  2. Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J.

    2000-09-01

    Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction

  3. Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J

    2000-09-01

    Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction.

  4. Methodological Challenges in Examining the Impact of Healthcare Predictive Analytics on Nursing-Sensitive Patient Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffery, Alvin D

    2015-06-01

    The expansion of real-time analytic abilities within current electronic health records has led to innovations in predictive modeling and clinical decision support systems. However, the ability of these systems to influence patient outcomes is currently unknown. Even though nurses are the largest profession within the healthcare workforce, little research has been performed to explore the impact of clinical decision support on their decisions and the patient outcomes associated with them. A scoping literature review explored the impact clinical decision support systems containing healthcare predictive analytics have on four nursing-sensitive patient outcomes (pressure ulcers, failure to rescue, falls, and infections). While many articles discussed variable selection and predictive model development/validation, only four articles examined the impact on patient outcomes. The novelty of predictive analytics and the inherent methodological challenges in studying clinical decision support impact are likely responsible for this paucity of literature. Major methodological challenges include (1) multilevel nature of intervention, (2) treatment fidelity, and (3) adequacy of clinicians' subsequent behavior. There is currently insufficient evidence to demonstrate efficacy of healthcare predictive analytics-enhanced clinical decision support systems on nursing-sensitive patient outcomes. Innovative research methods and a greater emphasis on studying this phenomenon are needed.

  5. Deformation and fracture map methodology for predicting cladding behavior during dry storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chin, B.A.; Khan, M.A.; Tarn, J.C.L.

    1986-09-01

    The licensing of interim dry storage of light-water reactor spent fuel requires assurance that release limits of radioactive materials are not exceeded. The extent to which Zircaloy cladding can be relied upon as a barrier to prevent release of radioactive spent fuel and fission products depends upon its integrity. The internal pressure from helium and fission gases could become a source of hoop stress for creep rupture if pressures and temperatures were sufficiently high. Consequently, it is of interest to predict the condition of spent fuel cladding during interim storage for periods up to 40 years. To develop this prediction, deformation and fracture theories were used to develop maps. Where available, experimental deformation and fracture data were used to test the validity of the maps. Predictive equations were then developed and cumulative damage methodology was used to take credit for the declining temperature of spent fuel during storage. This methodology was then used to predict storage temperatures below which creep rupture would not be expected to occur except in fuel rods with pre-existing flaws. Predictions were also made and compared with results from tests conducted under abnormal conditions

  6. Validation of a Methodology to Predict Micro-Vibrations Based on Finite Element Model Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soula, Laurent; Rathband, Ian; Laduree, Gregory

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents the second part of the ESA R&D study called "METhodology for Analysis of structure- borne MICro-vibrations" (METAMIC). After defining an integrated analysis and test methodology to help predicting micro-vibrations [1], a full-scale validation test campaign has been carried out. It is based on a bread-board representative of typical spacecraft (S/C) platform consisting in a versatile structure made of aluminium sandwich panels equipped with different disturbance sources and a dummy payload made of a silicon carbide (SiC) bench. The bread-board has been instrumented with a large set of sensitive accelerometers and tests have been performed including back-ground noise measurement, modal characterization and micro- vibration tests. The results provided responses to the perturbation coming from a reaction wheel or cryo-cooler compressors, operated independently then simultaneously with different operation modes. Using consistent modelling and associated experimental characterization techniques, a correlation status has been assessed by comparing test results with predictions based on FEM approach. Very good results have been achieved particularly for the case of a wheel in sweeping rate operation with test results over-predicted within a reasonable margin lower than two. Some limitations of the methodology have also been identified for sources operating at a fixed rate or coming with a small number of dominant harmonics and recommendations have been issued in order to deal with model uncertainties and stay conservative.

  7. Safety analysis methodology with assessment of the impact of the prediction errors of relevant parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galia, A.V.

    2011-01-01

    The best estimate plus uncertainty approach (BEAU) requires the use of extensive resources and therefore it is usually applied for cases in which the available safety margin obtained with a conservative methodology can be questioned. Outside the BEAU methodology, there is not a clear approach on how to deal with the issue of considering the uncertainties resulting from prediction errors in the safety analyses performed for licensing submissions. However, the regulatory document RD-310 mentions that the analysis method shall account for uncertainties in the analysis data and models. A possible approach is presented, that is simple and reasonable, representing just the author's views, to take into account the impact of prediction errors and other uncertainties when performing safety analysis in line with regulatory requirements. The approach proposes taking into account the prediction error of relevant parameters. Relevant parameters would be those plant parameters that are surveyed and are used to initiate the action of a mitigating system or those that are representative of the most challenging phenomena for the integrity of a fission barrier. Examples of the application of the methodology are presented involving a comparison between the results with the new approach and a best estimate calculation during the blowdown phase for two small breaks in a generic CANDU 6 station. The calculations are performed with the CATHENA computer code. (author)

  8. Structure life prediction at high temperature: present and future capabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaboche, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The life prediction techniques for high temperature conditions include several aspects which are considered successively in this article. Crack initiation criteria themselves, defined for the isolated volume element (the tension-compression specimen for example), including parametric relationships and continuous damage approaches and calculation of local stress and strain fields in the structure and their evolution under cyclic plasticity, which poses several difficult problems to obtain stabilized cyclic solutions are examined. The use of crack initiation criteria or damage rules from the result of the cyclic inelastic analysis and the prediction of crack growth in the structure are considered. Different levels are considered for the predictive tools: the classical approach, future methods presently under development and intermediate rules, which are already in use. Several examples are given on materials and components used either in the nuclear industry or in gas turbine engines. (author)

  9. STATE INSPECTION METHODOLOGY OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATORY ACTIVITY FOCUSED ON THE LIFE CYCLE PROCESSESES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuniey Quiala Armenteros

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The Cuban Environmental Regulatory Activity has on the Environmental State Inspection an instrument for control and monitoring of compliance of current legal standards regarding environmental protection and rational use of natural resources. In this research, a design methodology for effective implementation of environmental regulatory activity in Cuba directed to processes is proposed; based on the life cycle assessment and the applicable environmental management standards, including new performance indicators, which form a new tool based on scientific criterions for the Center of Environmental Inspection and Control.

  10. Shelf life prediction of canned fried-rice using accelerated shelf life testing (ASLT) arrhenius method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurniadi, M.; Bintang, R.; Kusumaningrum, A.; Nursiwi, A.; Nurhikmat, A.; Susanto, A.; Angwar, M.; Triwiyono; Frediansyah, A.

    2017-12-01

    Research on shelf-life prediction of canned fried rice using Accelerated Shelf-life Test (ASLT) of Arrhenius model has been conducted. The aim of this research to predict shelf life of canned-fried rice products. Lethality value of 121°C for 15 and 20 minutes and Total Plate count methods are used to determine time and temperatures of sterilization process.Various storage temperatures of ASLT Arrhenius method were 35, 45 and 55°C during 35days. Rancidity is one of the derivation quality of canned fried rice. In this research, sample of canned fried rice is tested using rancidity value (TBA). TBA value was used as parameter which be measured once a week periodically. The use of can for fried rice without any chemical preservative is one of the advantage of the product, additionaly the use of physicalproperties such as temperature and pressure during its process can extend the shelf life and reduce the microbial contamination. The same research has never done before for fried rice as ready to eat meal. The result showed that the optimum conditions of sterilization process were 121°C,15 minutes with total plate count number of 9,3 × 101 CFU/ml. Lethality value of canned fried rice at 121°C,15 minutes was 3.63 minutes. The calculated Shelf-life of canned fried rice using Accelerated Shelf-life Test (ASLT) of Arrhenius method was 10.3 months.

  11. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  12. Social Life Cycle Assessment as a Management Tool: Methodology for Application in Tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Merli

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available As is widely known, sustainability is an important factor in competition, increasing the added value of a company in terms of image and credibility. However, it is important that sustainability assessments are effectively addressed in a global perspective. Therefore, life cycle tools are adopted to evaluate environmental and social impacts. Among these, and of particular significance, appears the Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA, which, although in its early stage of development, seems to have extremely promising methodological features. For this reason, it seemed interesting to propose a first application to the tourism sector, which could be better than other methods, studied in terms of social sustainability data. The particular characteristics of service delivery lend themselves more to the development of data related to social sustainability than other sectors. In this paper the results of a case study carried out using social accounting and business management tools are shown.

  13. The application of life cycle assessment to integrated solid waste management. Pt. 1: Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clift, R.; Doig, A.; Finnveden, G.

    2000-07-01

    Integrated Waste Management is one of the holistic approaches to environmental and resource management which are emerging from applying the concept of sustainable development. Assessment of waste management options requires application of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). This paper summarizes the methodology for applying LCA to Integrated Waste Management of Municipal Solid Wastes (MSW) developed for and now used by the UK Environment Agency, including recent developments in international fora. Particular attention is devoted to system definition leading to rational and clear compilation of the Life Cycle Inventory, with appropriate 'credit' for recovering materials and/or energy from the waste. LCA of waste management is best seen as a way of structuring information to help decision processes. (Author)

  14. Development of methodology for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs calculation based on real-life data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen A Struijk

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs have the advantage that effects on total health instead of on a specific disease incidence or mortality can be estimated. Our aim was to address several methodological points related to the computation of DALYs at an individual level in a follow-up study. METHODS: DALYs were computed for 33,507 men and women aged 20-70 years when participating in the EPIC-NL study in 1993-7. DALYs are the sum of the Years Lost due to Disability (YLD and the Years of Life Lost (YLL due to premature mortality. Premature mortality was defined as death before the estimated date of individual Life Expectancy (LE. Different methods to compute LE were compared as well as the effect of different follow-up periods using a two-part model estimating the effect of smoking status on health as an example. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 12.4 years, there were 69,245 DALYs due to years lived with a disease or premature death. Current-smokers had lost 1.28 healthy years of their life (1.28 DALYs 95%CI 1.10; 1.46 compared to never-smokers. The outcome varied depending on the method used for estimating LE, completeness of disease and mortality ascertainment and notably the percentage of extinction (duration of follow-up of the cohort. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the use of DALYs in a cohort study is an appropriate way to assess total disease burden in relation to a determinant. The outcome is sensitive to the LE calculation method and the follow-up duration of the cohort.

  15. Risk based service life prediction of underground cast iron pipes subjected to corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.Q.; Mahmoodian, M.

    2013-01-01

    Aging and deterioration of underground cast iron pipes is inevitable after their long time in service, with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism for pipe failures. Although considerable research has been undertaken in the past few decades, more is on the effects of corrosion on structural capacity of pipes than that on the prediction of their service life. This paper presents a methodology to quantitatively assess the risk of pipe collapse and predict its remaining service life using a time-dependent reliability theory. The concept of stress intensity in fracture mechanics is employed to establish the failure criterion of pipe collapse. An empirical model is derived for maximum pit growth of corrosion from the available data based on mathematical regressions. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method. It is found in the paper that the risk of pipe collapse increases with an increase in the diameter of the pipe for both external and internal corrosion. It is also found that the tougher the pipe is, the smaller the risk of its collapse. The paper concludes that a time-dependent reliability method is a very useful tool to predict the risk of pipe collapse and its remaining service life. The proposed method can help the water industry develop rehabilitation or replacement strategy for existing pipe networks with a view for better management of the pipe asset

  16. DATA MINING METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL MODEL OF COST PREDICTION IN SHIP INTERIM PRODUCT ASSEMBLY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damir Kolich

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to accurately predict costs of the thousands of interim products that are assembled in shipyards, it is necessary to use skilled engineers to develop detailed Gantt charts for each interim product separately which takes many hours. It is helpful to develop a prediction tool to estimate the cost of interim products accurately and quickly without the need for skilled engineers. This will drive down shipyard costs and improve competitiveness. Data mining is used extensively for developing prediction models in other industries. Since ships consist of thousands of interim products, it is logical to develop a data mining methodology for a shipyard or any other manufacturing industry where interim products are produced. The methodology involves analysis of existing interim products and data collection. Pre-processing and principal component analysis is done to make the data “user-friendly” for later prediction processing and the development of both accurate and robust models. The support vector machine is demonstrated as the better model when there are a lower number of tuples. However as the number of tuples is increased to over 10000, then the artificial neural network model is recommended.

  17. Half-life predictions for decay modes of superheavy nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duarte, S.B.; Tavares, O.A.P.; Goncalves, M.; Rodriguez, O.; Guzman, F.; Barbosa, T.N.; Garcia, F.; Dimarco, A.

    2004-09-01

    We applied the Effective Liquid Drop Model (ELDM) to predict the alpha-decay, cluster emission and cold fission half-life-values of nuclei in the region of Superheavy Elements (SHE). The present calculations have been made in the region of the ZN-plane defined by 155 <=N <=220 and 110<=Z<=135. Shell effects are included via the Q-value of the corresponding decay case. We report the results of a systematic calculation of the half-life for the three nuclear decay modes in a region of the ZN-plane where superheavy elements are expected to be found. Results have shown that, among the decay modes investigated here, the alpha decay is the dominant one. i.e, the decay mode of smallest half-lives. Half-life predictions for alpha decay, cluster emission and cold fission for the isotopic family of the most recent SHE detected of Z=115 and for the isotopic family of the already consolidated SHE of Z=111 are presented. (author)

  18. Fatigue life prediction in woven carbon fabric polyester composites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, Z.; Al-Sulaiman, F.S.; Farooqi, J.K.

    1999-01-01

    An analytical model, based on stiffness degradation during fatigue loading, which has been used for fatigue life predictions in the Fiber Reinforced Plastics (FRP), is employed to examine its validity to the fatigue life predictions in the Woven Fabric Reinforced Plastics. The rate of stiffness degradation (dE/dN) has been obtained from the constant amplitude fatigue testing of 8-ply coupons made from prepreg plain-weave woven carbon-carbon fabric having a polyester resin as the matrix material. The test coupons had three different ply stacking sequences, namely, the unidirectional (0)8,and two off axis plied (0,0,+45,-45)s, and (+45,-45,0,0)s orientations. The estimated fatigue lives obtained from the damage rate function dD/dN, which in turn was a function of the stiffness degradation rate dE/dN, were compared with the experimentally observed fatigue life data. It is shown that the stiffness degradation model provides reasonably good correlation between the analytically determined fatigue lives and the experimentally observed fatigue for the plain-weave woven Carbon-Carbon Fabric Reinforced Plastic Composites. (author)

  19. A methodology for on-line fatigue life monitoring of Indian nuclear power plant components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukhopadhyay, N.K.; Dutta, B.K.; Kushawaha, H.S.

    1992-01-01

    Fatigue is one of the most important aging effects of nuclear power plant components. Information about accumulation of fatigue helps in assessing structural degradation of the components. This assists in-service inspection and maintenance and may also support future life extension program of a plant. In the present report a methodology is being proposed for monitoring on line fatigue life of nuclear power plant components using available plant instrumentations. Major factors affecting fatigue life of a nuclear power plant components are the fluctuations of temperature, pressure and flow rate. Green's function technique is used in on line fatigue monitoring as computation time is much less than finite element method. A code has been developed which computes temperature and stress Green's functions in 2-D and axisymmetric structure by finite element method due to unit change in various fluid parameters. A post processor has also been developed which computes the temperature and stress responses using corresponding Green's functions and actual fluctuation in fluid parameters. In this post processor, the multiple site problem is solved by superimposing single site Green's function technique. It is also shown that Green's function technique is best suited for on line fatigue life monitoring of nuclear power plant components. (author). 6 refs., 43 figs

  20. Small punch creep test: A promising methodology for high temperature plant components life evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tettamanti, S. [CISE SpA, Milan (Italy); Crudeli, R. [ENEL SpA, Milan (Italy)

    1998-12-31

    CISE and ENEL are involved for years in a miniaturization creep methodology project to obtain similar non-destructive test with the same standard creep test reliability. The goal can be reached with `Small punch creep test` that collect all the requested characteristics; quasi nondestructive disk specimens extracted both on external or internal side of components, than accurately machined and tested on little and cheap apparatus. CISE has developed complete creep small punch procedure that involved peculiar test facility and correlation`s law comparable with the more diffused isostress methodology for residual life evaluation on ex-serviced high temperature plant components. The aim of this work is to obtain a simple and immediately applicable relationship useful for plant maintenance managing. More added work is need to validate the Small Punch methodology and for relationship calibration on most diffusion high temperature structural materials. First obtained results on a comparative work on ASTM A355 P12 ex-serviced pipe material are presented joint with a description of the Small Punch apparatus realized in CISE. (orig.) 6 refs.

  1. Small punch creep test: A promising methodology for high temperature plant components life evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tettamanti, S [CISE SpA, Milan (Italy); Crudeli, R [ENEL SpA, Milan (Italy)

    1999-12-31

    CISE and ENEL are involved for years in a miniaturization creep methodology project to obtain similar non-destructive test with the same standard creep test reliability. The goal can be reached with `Small punch creep test` that collect all the requested characteristics; quasi nondestructive disk specimens extracted both on external or internal side of components, than accurately machined and tested on little and cheap apparatus. CISE has developed complete creep small punch procedure that involved peculiar test facility and correlation`s law comparable with the more diffused isostress methodology for residual life evaluation on ex-serviced high temperature plant components. The aim of this work is to obtain a simple and immediately applicable relationship useful for plant maintenance managing. More added work is need to validate the Small Punch methodology and for relationship calibration on most diffusion high temperature structural materials. First obtained results on a comparative work on ASTM A355 P12 ex-serviced pipe material are presented joint with a description of the Small Punch apparatus realized in CISE. (orig.) 6 refs.

  2. Time-dependent fatigue--phenomenology and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coffin, L.F.

    1979-01-01

    The time-dependent fatigue behavior of materials used or considered for use in present and advanced systems for power generation is outlined. A picture is first presented to show how basic mechanisms and phenomenological information relate to the performance of the component under consideration through the so-called local strain approach. By this means life prediction criteria and design rules can be formulated utilizing laboratory test information which is directly translated to predicting the performance of a component. The body of phenomenological information relative to time-dependent fatigue is reviewed. Included are effects of strain range, strain rate and frequency, environment and wave shape, all of which are shown to be important in developing both an understanding and design base for time dependent fatigue. Using this information, some of the current methods being considered for the life prediction of components are reviewed. These include the current ASME code case, frequency-modified fatigue equations, strain range partitioning, the damage function method, frequency separation and damage rate equations. From this review, it is hoped that a better perspective on future directions for basic material science at high temperature can be achieved

  3. Statistical characterization of pitting corrosion process and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheikh, A.K.; Younas, M.

    1995-01-01

    In order to prevent corrosion failures of machines and structures, it is desirable to know in advance when the corrosion damage will take place, and appropriate measures are needed to mitigate the damage. The corrosion predictions are needed both at development as well as operational stage of machines and structures. There are several forms of corrosion process through which varying degrees of damage can occur. Under certain conditions these corrosion processes at alone and in other set of conditions, several of these processes may occur simultaneously. For a certain type of machine elements and structures, such as gears, bearing, tubes, pipelines, containers, storage tanks etc., are particularly prone to pitting corrosion which is an insidious form of corrosion. The corrosion predictions are usually based on experimental results obtained from test coupons and/or field experiences of similar machines or parts of a structure. Considerable scatter is observed in corrosion processes. The probabilities nature and kinetics of pitting process makes in necessary to use statistical method to forecast the residual life of machine of structures. The focus of this paper is to characterization pitting as a time-dependent random process, and using this characterization the prediction of life to reach a critical level of pitting damage can be made. Using several data sets from literature on pitting corrosion, the extreme value modeling of pitting corrosion process, the evolution of the extreme value distribution in time, and their relationship to the reliability of machines and structure are explained. (author)

  4. Remaining life prediction of I and C cables for reliability assessment of NPP systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhosh, T.V.; Ghosh, A.K.; Fernandes, B.G.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A framework for time dependent reliability prediction of I and C cables for use in PSA of NPP has been developed using stress–strength interference theory. ► The proposed methodology has been illustrated with the accelerated thermal aging data on a typical XLPE cable. ► The behavior of insulation resistance when the degradation process is linear or exponential has also been modeled. ► The reliability index or probability of failure obtained from this approach can be used in system reliability evaluation to account for cable aging for PSA of NPP. - Abstract: Instrumentation and control (I and C) cables are one of the most important components in nuclear power plants (NPPs) because they provide power to safety-related equipment and also to transmit signals to and from various controllers to perform safety operations. I and C cables in NPP are subjected to a variety of aging and degradation stressors that can produce immediate degradation or aging-related mechanisms causing the degradation of cable components over time. Although, there exits several life estimation techniques, currently there is no any standard methodology or an approach toward estimating the time dependent reliability of I and C cables that can be directly used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) applications. Hence, the objective of this study is to develop an approach to estimate and confirm the continued acceptable margin in cable insulation life over time subjected to aging. This paper presents a framework based on the structural reliability theory to quantify the life time of I and C cable subjecting to thermal aging. Since cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cables are extensively being used in Indian NPPs, the remaining life time evaluations have been carried out for a typical XLPE cable. However, the methodology can be extended to other cables such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene propylene rubber (EPR), etc.

  5. Fatigue mechanics - An assessment of a unified approach to life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newman, J.C. Jr.; Phillips, E.P.; Swain, M.H.; Everett, R.A. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Consideration is given to the development of a total-life prediction methodology for aerospace structures based solely on crack propagation from a microstructural defect at stress concentrations. Crack-growth lives were calculated for a given loading condition by integrating the crack-growth-rate-against-delta K relationships for crack growth from a microstructural defect size to failure. Both small- and large-crack growth rate data were used. The assessment was based on data on 2024-T3 aluminum alloy, 2090-T8E41 aluminum-lithium alloy, annealed Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy, and high-strength 4340 steel under either constant-amplitude or spectrum loading. Good agreement was found between fatigue lives measured on notched specimens with those computed from the total-life analysis. 29 refs

  6. Personality predicts recurrence of late-life depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steunenberg, Bas; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Deeg, Dorly J H; Kerkhof, Ad J F M

    2010-06-01

    To examine the association of personality with recurrence of depression in later life. A subsample of 91 subjects from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA; baseline sample size n=3107; aged > or = 55 years) depressed at baseline, who had recovered in the course of three years (first follow-up cycle) was identified. 41 (45%) respondents experienced a recurrence during the subsequent six years. The influences of personality and late life stress (demographic factors, health and social factors) on recurrence were investigated prospectively. Recurrence of depression was associated with a high level of neuroticism and low level of mastery, residual depressive symptoms at time of recovery, female gender, pain complaints and feelings of loneliness. In multivariable analysis entering all predictors significant in single variable analysis, residual depressive symptoms and lack of mastery remained significantly associated with recurrence. In predicting the recurrence of depression in later life, the direct effects of personality remain important and comparable in strength with other late life stressors related to recurrence. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Predicting human miRNA target genes using a novel evolutionary methodology

    KAUST Repository

    Aigli, Korfiati; Kleftogiannis, Dimitrios A.; Konstantinos, Theofilatos; Spiros, Likothanassis; Athanasios, Tsakalidis; Seferina, Mavroudi

    2012-01-01

    The discovery of miRNAs had great impacts on traditional biology. Typically, miRNAs have the potential to bind to the 3'untraslated region (UTR) of their mRNA target genes for cleavage or translational repression. The experimental identification of their targets has many drawbacks including cost, time and low specificity and these are the reasons why many computational approaches have been developed so far. However, existing computational approaches do not include any advanced feature selection technique and they are facing problems concerning their classification performance and their interpretability. In the present paper, we propose a novel hybrid methodology which combines genetic algorithms and support vector machines in order to locate the optimal feature subset while achieving high classification performance. The proposed methodology was compared with two of the most promising existing methodologies in the problem of predicting human miRNA targets. Our approach outperforms existing methodologies in terms of classification performances while selecting a much smaller feature subset. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

  8. Predicting human miRNA target genes using a novel evolutionary methodology

    KAUST Repository

    Aigli, Korfiati

    2012-01-01

    The discovery of miRNAs had great impacts on traditional biology. Typically, miRNAs have the potential to bind to the 3\\'untraslated region (UTR) of their mRNA target genes for cleavage or translational repression. The experimental identification of their targets has many drawbacks including cost, time and low specificity and these are the reasons why many computational approaches have been developed so far. However, existing computational approaches do not include any advanced feature selection technique and they are facing problems concerning their classification performance and their interpretability. In the present paper, we propose a novel hybrid methodology which combines genetic algorithms and support vector machines in order to locate the optimal feature subset while achieving high classification performance. The proposed methodology was compared with two of the most promising existing methodologies in the problem of predicting human miRNA targets. Our approach outperforms existing methodologies in terms of classification performances while selecting a much smaller feature subset. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

  9. Miedema model based methodology to predict amorphous-forming-composition range in binary and ternary systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Das, N., E-mail: nirupamd@barc.gov.in [Materials Science Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085 (India); Mittra, J. [Materials Science Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085 (India); Murty, B.S. [Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, IIT Madras, Chennai 600 036 (India); Pabi, S.K. [Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, IIT Kharagpur, Kharagpur 721 302 (India); Kulkarni, U.D.; Dey, G.K. [Materials Science Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085 (India)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A methodology was proposed to predict amorphous forming compositions (AFCs). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Chemical contribution to enthalpy of mixing {proportional_to} enthalpy of amorphous for AFCs. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Accuracy in the prediction of AFC-range was noticed in Al-Ni-Ti system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Mechanical alloying (MA) results of Al-Ni-Ti followed the predicted AFC-range. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Earlier MA results of Al-Ni-Ti also conformed to the predicted AFC-range. - Abstract: From the earlier works on the prediction of amorphous forming composition range (AFCR) using Miedema based model and also, on mechanical alloying experiments it has been observed that all amorphous forming compositions of a given alloy system falls within a linear band when the chemical contribution to enthalpy of the solid solution ({Delta}H{sup ss}) is plotted against the enthalpy of mixing in the amorphous phase ({Delta}H{sup amor}). On the basis of this observation, a methodology has been proposed in this article to identify the AFCR of a ternary system that is likely to be more precise than what can be obtained using {Delta}H{sup amor} - {Delta}H{sup ss} < 0 criterion. MA experiments on various compositions of Al-Ni-Ti system, producing amorphous, crystalline, and mixture of amorphous plus crystalline phases have been carried out and the phases have been characterized using X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy techniques. Data from the present MA experiments and, also, from the literature have been used to validate the proposed approach. Also, the proximity of compositions, producing a mixture of amorphous and crystalline phases to the boundary of AFCR in the Al-Ni-Ti ternary has been found useful to validate the effectiveness of the prediction.

  10. Using ABAQUS Scripting Interface for Materials Evaluation and Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Lynn M.; Arnold, Steven M.; Baranski, Andrzej

    2006-01-01

    An ABAQUS script has been written to aid in the evaluation of the mechanical behavior of viscoplastic materials. The purposes of the script are to: handle complex load histories; control load/displacement with alternate stopping criteria; predict failure and life; and verify constitutive models. Material models from the ABAQUS library may be used or the UMAT routine may specify mechanical behavior. User subroutines implemented include: UMAT for the constitutive model; UEXTERNALDB for file manipulation; DISP for boundary conditions; and URDFIL for results processing. Examples presented include load, strain and displacement control tests on a single element model. The tests are creep with a life limiting strain criterion, strain control with a stress limiting cycle and a complex interrupted cyclic relaxation test. The techniques implemented in this paper enable complex load conditions to be solved efficiently with ABAQUS.

  11. Patterns, Entropy, and Predictability of Human Mobility and Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Shao-Meng; Verkasalo, Hannu; Mohtaschemi, Mikael; Hartonen, Tuomo; Alava, Mikko

    2012-01-01

    Cellular phones are now offering an ubiquitous means for scientists to observe life: how people act, move and respond to external influences. They can be utilized as measurement devices of individual persons and for groups of people of the social context and the related interactions. The picture of human life that emerges shows complexity, which is manifested in such data in properties of the spatiotemporal tracks of individuals. We extract from smartphone-based data for a set of persons important locations such as “home”, “work” and so forth over fixed length time-slots covering the days in the data-set (see also [1], [2]). This set of typical places is heavy-tailed, a power-law distribution with an exponent close to −1.7. To analyze the regularities and stochastic features present, the days are classified for each person into regular, personal patterns. To this are superimposed fluctuations for each day. This randomness is measured by “life” entropy, computed both before and after finding the clustering so as to subtract the contribution of a number of patterns. The main issue that we then address is how predictable individuals are in their mobility. The patterns and entropy are reflected in the predictability of the mobility of the life both individually and on average. We explore the simple approaches to guess the location from the typical behavior, and of exploiting the transition probabilities with time from location or activity A to B. The patterns allow an enhanced predictability, at least up to a few hours into the future from the current location. Such fixed habits are most clearly visible in the working-day length. PMID:23300542

  12. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LOFARO, R.; SOO, P.; VILLARAN, M.; GROVE, E.

    2001-01-01

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed

  13. Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahle, Berhe W; Owen, Alice J; Chin, Ken Lee; Reid, Christopher M

    2017-09-01

    Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models. EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Development and advance of methodological basis of the determination of remaining life of reinforced concrete construction of NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matchenko, T.Yi.; Shamyis, L.B.; Pervushova, L.F.; Matchenko, O.T.

    2011-01-01

    The analysis is made of the existing methodological basis on determination of the technical state and residual service life of building constructions with categories of responsibility 1 and 2. The absent norms parameters for estimation of the state and service life of constructions are determined. Components for the decision of this problem are analyzed also.

  15. Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life Changing and Life Threatening Health Changes among Aging Veterans and Civilians with Spinal Cord Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0629 TITLE: Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life -Changing and Life -Threatening Health Changes among Aging...Annual 3. DATES COVERED 30 Sep 2016 - 29 Sep 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life -Changing and Life ... hope of preventing them. Our purpose is to better understand the how and why of the development of negative health spirals and how they may best be

  16. An overall methodology for reliability prediction of mechatronic systems design with industrial application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habchi, Georges; Barthod, Christine

    2016-01-01

    We propose in this paper an overall ten-step methodology dedicated to the analysis and quantification of reliability during the design phase of a mechatronic system, considered as a complex system. The ten steps of the methodology are detailed according to the downward side of the V-development cycle usually used for the design of complex systems. Two main phases of analysis are complementary and cover the ten steps, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The qualitative phase proposes to analyze the functional and dysfunctional behavior of the system and then determine its different failure modes and degradation states, based on external and internal functional analysis, organic and physical implementation, and dependencies between components, with consideration of customer specifications and mission profile. The quantitative phase is used to calculate the reliability of the system and its components, based on the qualitative behavior patterns, and considering data gathering and processing and reliability targets. Systemic approach is used to calculate the reliability of the system taking into account: the different technologies of a mechatronic system (mechanics, electronics, electrical .), dependencies and interactions between components and external influencing factors. To validate the methodology, the ten steps are applied to an industrial system, the smart actuator of Pack'Aero Company. - Highlights: • A ten-step methodology for reliability prediction of mechatronic systems design. • Qualitative and quantitative analysis for reliability evaluation using PN and RBD. • A dependency matrix proposal, based on the collateral and functional interactions. • Models consider mission profile, deterioration, interactions and influent factors. • Application and validation of the methodology on the “Smart Actuator” of PACK’AERO.

  17. WHAT PREDICTS A SUCCESSFUL LIFE? A LIFE-COURSE MODEL OF WELL-BEING*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layard, Richard; Clark, Andrew E.; Cornaglia, Francesca; Powdthavee, Nattavudh; Vernoit, James

    2014-01-01

    Policy-makers who care about well-being need a recursive model of how adult life-satisfaction is predicted by childhood influences, acting both directly and (indirectly) through adult circumstances. We estimate such a model using the British Cohort Study (1970). We show that the most powerful childhood predictor of adult life-satisfaction is the child’s emotional health, followed by the child’s conduct. The least powerful predictor is the child’s intellectual development. This may have implications for educational policy. Among adult circumstances, family income accounts for only 0.5% of the variance of life-satisfaction. Mental and physical health are much more important. PMID:25422527

  18. Preeclampsia prediction in type 1 diabetes and diurnal blood pressure methodology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauszus, Finn

    2016-01-01

    of the papers with the best, validated methodology on BP measurements, which is by no way guaranteed in numerous recent publications. Inherent characteristics of the measurements to be considered are reproducibility, consistency, precision, and trend over scale of measurement. Studies on these issues suggest....... Preeclampsia is associated with urinary albumin excretion rate, reduced night/day ratio, and elevated diurnal blood pressure from first trimester and onwards. However, due to blunting of the diurnal variation, the night/day rhythm provides no good prediction of preeclampsia. Diurnal measurement is a valuable...

  19. A ductile fracture mechanics methodology for predicting pressure vessel and piping failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landes, J.D.; Zhou, Z.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on a ductile fracture methodology based on one used more generally for the prediction of fracture behavior that was applied to the prediction of fracture behavior in pressure vessel and piping components. The model uses the load versus displacement record from a fracture toughness test to develop inputs for predicting the behavior of the structural component. The principle of load separation is used to convert the test record into two pieces of information, calibration functions which describe the structural deformation behavior and fracture toughness which describes the response of a crack-like flaw to the loading. These calibration functions and fracture toughness values which relate to the test specimen are then transformed to those appropriate to the structure. Often in this step computation procedures could be used but are not always necessary. The calibration functions and fracture for the structure are recombined to predict a load versus displacement behavior for the structure. The input for the model was generated from tests of compact specimen geometries; this geometry is often used for fracture toughness testing. The predictions were done for five model structures

  20. External validation of multivariable prediction models: a systematic review of methodological conduct and reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Before considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model (referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models. Methods We conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures. Results 11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models. Conclusions The vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling

  1. A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

    2011-11-01

    Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

  2. Methodology for predicting oily mixture properties in the mathematical modeling of molecular distillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Gayol

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A methodology for predicting the thermodynamic and transport properties of a multi-component oily mixture, in which the different mixture components are grouped into a small number of pseudo components is shown. This prediction of properties is used in the mathematical modeling of molecular distillation, which consists of a system of differential equations in partial derivatives, according to the principles of the Transport Phenomena and is solved by an implicit finite difference method using a computer code. The mathematical model was validated with experimental data, specifically the molecular distillation of a deodorizer distillate (DD of sunflower oil. The results obtained were satisfactory, with errors less than 10% with respect to the experimental data in a temperature range in which it is possible to apply the proposed method.

  3. Methodology for predicting oily mixture properties in the mathematical modeling of molecular distillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gayol, M.F.; Pramparo, M.C.; Miró Erdmann, S.M.

    2017-01-01

    A methodology for predicting the thermodynamic and transport properties of a multi-component oily mixture, in which the different mixture components are grouped into a small number of pseudo components is shown. This prediction of properties is used in the mathematical modeling of molecular distillation, which consists of a system of differential equations in partial derivatives, according to the principles of the Transport Phenomena and is solved by an implicit finite difference method using a computer code. The mathematical model was validated with experimental data, specifically the molecular distillation of a deodorizer distillate (DD) of sunflower oil. The results obtained were satisfactory, with errors less than 10% with respect to the experimental data in a temperature range in which it is possible to apply the proposed method. [es

  4. Social Life Cycle Assessment of a Concentrated Solar Power Plant in Spain: A Methodological Proposal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corona, Blanca; Bozhilova-Kisheva, Kossara Petrova; Olsen, Stig Irving

    2017-01-01

    of sustainability, namely, economy, environment, and society. Social life cycle assessment (S-LCA) is a novel methodology still under development, used to cover the social aspects of sustainability within LCSA. The aim of this article is to provide additional discussion on the practical application of S...... generation in a concentrated solar power plant in Spain. The inventory phase was completed by using the indicators proposed by the United Nations Environment Program/Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (UNEP/SETAC) Guidelines on S-LCA. The impact assessment phase was approached by developing...... a social performance indicator that builds on performance reference points, an activity variable, and a numeric scale with positive and negative values. The social performance indicator obtained (+0.42 over a range of –2 to +2) shows that the deployment of the solar power plant increases the social welfare...

  5. Instrumentation and Control Life Cycle Management Plan Methodology. Volume 1, Manual: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quick, D.S.; Murray, S.; Florio, F.; Bliss, M.J.

    1995-08-01

    This methodology manual describes how to develop a Life Cycle Management Plan (LCMP). An LCMP is a long-term strategic plan that can be developed for a nuclear power plant to cost-effectively maintain and upgrade its aging or obsolete Instrumentation and Control (I ampersand C) systems. An LCMP defines the utility's mission and objectives in regards to long range I ampersand C planning, as well as the plant's present configuration (I ampersand C systems, networks, man machine interfaces, etc.), its desired future I ampersand C systems, a long term I ampersand C maintenance strategy, and initial upgrade priorities and schedules to cost-effectively implement system upgrades. This manual is accompanied by a workbook (EPRI TR-105555-V2) which contains various worksheets, outlines, and generic interview questions that aid in the LCNW development process

  6. Computational Efficient Upscaling Methodology for Predicting Thermal Conductivity of Nuclear Waste forms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Dongsheng; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluated different upscaling methods to predict thermal conductivity in loaded nuclear waste form, a heterogeneous material system. The efficiency and accuracy of these methods were compared. Thermal conductivity in loaded nuclear waste form is an important property specific to scientific researchers, in waste form Integrated performance and safety code (IPSC). The effective thermal conductivity obtained from microstructure information and local thermal conductivity of different components is critical in predicting the life and performance of waste form during storage. How the heat generated during storage is directly related to thermal conductivity, which in turn determining the mechanical deformation behavior, corrosion resistance and aging performance. Several methods, including the Taylor model, Sachs model, self-consistent model, and statistical upscaling models were developed and implemented. Due to the absence of experimental data, prediction results from finite element method (FEM) were used as reference to determine the accuracy of different upscaling models. Micrographs from different loading of nuclear waste were used in the prediction of thermal conductivity. Prediction results demonstrated that in term of efficiency, boundary models (Taylor and Sachs model) are better than self consistent model, statistical upscaling method and FEM. Balancing the computation resource and accuracy, statistical upscaling is a computational efficient method in predicting effective thermal conductivity for nuclear waste form.

  7. A new time-series methodology for estimating relationships between elderly frailty, remaining life expectancy, and ambient air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Christian J; Lipfert, Frederick W

    2012-01-01

    Many publications estimate short-term air pollution-mortality risks, but few estimate the associated changes in life-expectancies. We present a new methodology for analyzing time series of health effects, in which prior frailty is assumed to precede short-term elderly nontraumatic mortality. The model is based on a subpopulation of frail individuals whose entries and exits (deaths) are functions of daily and lagged environmental conditions: ambient temperature/season, airborne particles, and ozone. This frail susceptible population is unknown; its fluctuations cannot be observed but are estimated using maximum-likelihood methods with the Kalman filter. We used an existing 14-y set of daily data to illustrate the model and then tested the assumption of prior frailty with a new generalized model that estimates the portion of the daily death count allocated to nonfrail individuals. In this demonstration dataset, new entries into the high-risk pool are associated with lower ambient temperatures and higher concentrations of particulate matter and ozone. Accounting for these effects on antecedent frailty reduces this at-risk population, yielding frail life expectancies of 5-7 days. Associations between environmental factors and entries to the at-risk pool are about twice as strong as for mortality. Nonfrail elderly deaths are seen to make only small contributions. This new model predicts a small short-lived frail population-at-risk that is stable over a wide range of environmental conditions. The predicted effects of pollution on new entries and deaths are robust and consistent with conventional morbidity/mortality times-series studies. We recommend model verification using other suitable datasets.

  8. A New Methodology Based on Imbalanced Classification for Predicting Outliers in Electricity Demand Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Javier Duque-Pintor

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of outliers in real-world phenomena is quite usual. If these anomalous data are not properly treated, unreliable models can be generated. Many approaches in the literature are focused on a posteriori detection of outliers. However, a new methodology to a priori predict the occurrence of such data is proposed here. Thus, the main goal of this work is to predict the occurrence of outliers in time series, by using, for the first time, imbalanced classification techniques. In this sense, the problem of forecasting outlying data has been transformed into a binary classification problem, in which the positive class represents the occurrence of outliers. Given that the number of outliers is much lower than the number of common values, the resultant classification problem is imbalanced. To create training and test sets, robust statistical methods have been used to detect outliers in both sets. Once the outliers have been detected, the instances of the dataset are labeled accordingly. Namely, if any of the samples composing the next instance are detected as an outlier, the label is set to one. As a study case, the methodology has been tested on electricity demand time series in the Spanish electricity market, in which most of the outliers were properly forecast.

  9. A Duration Prediction Using a Material-Based Progress Management Methodology for Construction Operation Plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongho Ko

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Precise and accurate prediction models for duration and cost enable contractors to improve their decision making for effective resource management in terms of sustainability in construction. Previous studies have been limited to cost-based estimations, but this study focuses on a material-based progress management method. Cost-based estimations typically used in construction, such as the earned value method, rely on comparing the planned budget with the actual cost. However, accurately planning budgets requires analysis of many factors, such as the financial status of the sectors involved. Furthermore, there is a higher possibility of changes in the budget than in the total amount of material used during construction, which is deduced from the quantity take-off from drawings and specifications. Accordingly, this study proposes a material-based progress management methodology, which was developed using different predictive analysis models (regression, neural network, and auto-regressive moving average as well as datasets on material and labor, which can be extracted from daily work reports from contractors. A case study on actual datasets was conducted, and the results show that the proposed methodology can be efficiently used for progress management in construction.

  10. A generic statistical methodology to predict the maximum pit depth of a localized corrosion process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarrah, A.; Bigerelle, M.; Guillemot, G.; Najjar, D.; Iost, A.; Nianga, J.-M.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We propose a methodology to predict the maximum pit depth in a corrosion process. → Generalized Lambda Distribution and the Computer Based Bootstrap Method are combined. → GLD fit a large variety of distributions both in their central and tail regions. → Minimum thickness preventing perforation can be estimated with a safety margin. → Considering its applications, this new approach can help to size industrial pieces. - Abstract: This paper outlines a new methodology to predict accurately the maximum pit depth related to a localized corrosion process. It combines two statistical methods: the Generalized Lambda Distribution (GLD), to determine a model of distribution fitting with the experimental frequency distribution of depths, and the Computer Based Bootstrap Method (CBBM), to generate simulated distributions equivalent to the experimental one. In comparison with conventionally established statistical methods that are restricted to the use of inferred distributions constrained by specific mathematical assumptions, the major advantage of the methodology presented in this paper is that both the GLD and the CBBM enable a statistical treatment of the experimental data without making any preconceived choice neither on the unknown theoretical parent underlying distribution of pit depth which characterizes the global corrosion phenomenon nor on the unknown associated theoretical extreme value distribution which characterizes the deepest pits. Considering an experimental distribution of depths of pits produced on an aluminium sample, estimations of maximum pit depth using a GLD model are compared to similar estimations based on usual Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) methods proposed in the corrosion engineering literature. The GLD approach is shown having smaller bias and dispersion in the estimation of the maximum pit depth than the Gumbel approach both for its realization and mean. This leads to comparing the GLD approach to the GEV one

  11. Development of a predictive methodology for identifying high radon exhalation potential areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ielsch, G.

    2001-01-01

    Radon 222 is a radioactive natural gas originating from the decay of radium 226 which itself originates from the decay of uranium 23 8 naturally present in rocks and soil. Inhalation of radon gas and its decay products is a potential health risk for man. Radon can accumulate in confined environments such as buildings, and is responsible for one third of the total radiological exposure of the general public to radiation. The problem of how to manage this risk then arises. The main difficulty encountered is due to the large variability of exposure to radon across the country. A prediction needs to be made of areas with the highest density of buildings with high radon levels. Exposure to radon varies depending on the degree of confinement of the habitat, the lifestyle of the occupants and particularly emission of radon from the surface of the soil on which the building is built. The purpose of this thesis is to elaborate a methodology for determining areas presenting a high potential for radon exhalation at the surface of the soil. The methodology adopted is based on quantification of radon exhalation at the surface, starting from a precise characterization of the main local geological and pedological parameters that control the radon source and its transport to the ground/atmosphere interface. The methodology proposed is innovative in that it combines a cartographic analysis, parameters integrated into a Geographic Information system, and a simplified model for vertical transport of radon by diffusion through pores in the soil. This methodology has been validated on two typical areas, in different geological contexts, and gives forecasts that generally agree with field observations. This makes it possible to identify areas with a high exhalation potential within a range of a few square kilometers. (author)

  12. Personality and Total Health Through Life Project Eye Substudy: Methodology and Baseline Retinal Features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijngaarden, Peter Van; Keel, Stuart; Hodgson, Lauren A B; Kumar, Dinesh K; Aliahmad, Behzad; Paim, Cistiane C; Kiely, Kim M; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Anstey, Kaarin J; Dirani, Mohamed

    2017-01-01

    To describe the methodology and present the retinal grading findings of an older sample of australians with well-defined indices of neurocognitive function in the Personality and total Health (PATH) through life project. A cross-sectional study. Three hundred twenty-six individuals from the PatH through life project were invited to participate. Participants completed a general questionnaire and 2-field, 45-degree nonmydriatic color digital retinal photography. Photographs were graded for retinal pathology according to established protocols. Two hundred fifty-four (77.9%) subjects, aged 72 to 78 years, agreed to participate in the eye substudy. gradable images of at least 1 eye were acquired in 211 of 254 subjects (83.1%). retinal photographic screening identified 1 or more signs of pathology in 130 of the 174 subjects (74.7%) with gradable images of both eyes. a total of 45 participants (17.7%) had self-reported diabetes and diabetic retinopathy was observed in 22 (48.9%) of these participants. This well-defined sample of older australians provides a unique opportunity to interrogate associations between retinal findings, including retinal vascular geometric parameters, and indices of neurocognitive function. Copyright 2017 Asia-Pacific Academy of Ophthalmology.

  13. Life Prediction of Spent Fuel Storage Canister Material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballinger, Ronald

    2018-04-16

    The original purpose of this project was to develop a probabilistic model for SCC-induced failure of spent fuel storage canisters, exposed to a salt-air environment in the temperature range 30-70°C for periods up to and exceeding 100 years. The nature of this degradation process, which involves multiple degradation mechanisms, combined with variable and uncertain environmental conditions dictates a probabilistic approach to life prediction. A final report for the original portion of the project was submitted earlier. However, residual stress measurements for as-welded and repair welds could not be performed within the original time of the project. As a result of this, a no-cost extension was granted in order to complete these tests. In this report, we report on the results of residual stress measurements.

  14. NULIFE - the European NoE 'Nuclear Plant Life Prediction'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cojan, Mihail

    2008-01-01

    INR Pitesti become on the 29th September 2006 a partner in the European Network of Excellence Nuclear Plant Life Prediction (NULIFE) coordinated by Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). The EU's Network of Excellence NULIFE has been launched under the EURATOM FP6 Program with a clear focus on integrating safety-oriented research on materials, structures and systems and exploiting the results of this integration through the production of harmonized lifetime assessment methods. NULIFE will help provide a better common understanding of, and information on, the factors affecting the lifetime of nuclear power plants which, together with associated management methods, will help facilitate extensions to the safe and economic lifetime of existing nuclear power plants. (author)

  15. Quality of life prediction in children with joint hypermobility syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacey, Verity; Tofts, Louise; Adams, Roger D; Munns, Craig F; Nicholson, Leslie L

    2015-07-01

    To assess the child- and parent-reported health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of children with joint hypermobility syndrome (JHS), to compare these with other chronic paediatric conditions and to determine whether symptoms experienced by children with JHS can predict their HRQOL. Eighty-nine children with JHS and one of their parents completed the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 Generic Core Scale, the Multidimensional Fatigue Scale and the Pediatric Pain Questionnaire. Anthropometric measures and reported symptoms were recorded. Child-reported HRQOL scores were compared with parent report, and both child- and parent-reported HRQOL scores of children with JHS were compared with those of children with other chronic conditions. Stepwise multiple regression was undertaken to determine whether any combination of measures could predict HRQOL. Parent- and child-reported HRQOL scores were strongly correlated (r = 0.6-0.84, all P children with JHS perceived lower overall HRQOL (mean difference = 4.44, P = 0.001), physical (mean difference = 7.11, P children. When considered together with previously reported HRQOL scores for children with other chronic conditions, parent and child scores were similarly strongly correlated (r = 0.93, P = 0.001). Multiple regression revealed that 75% of the variance in child-reported HRQOL scores was accounted for by a child's level of pain and fatigue, and presence of stress incontinence symptoms (P Children with JHS experience poor HRQOL and disabling fatigue, with parent scores providing a good proxy. Pain, fatigue and the presence of stress incontinence symptoms have the greatest impact on their HRQOL. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2015 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  16. The energy return on energy investment (EROI) of photovoltaics: Methodology and comparisons with fossil fuel life cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raugei, Marco; Fullana-i-Palmer, Pere; Fthenakis, Vasilis

    2012-01-01

    A high energy return on energy investment (EROI) of an energy production process is crucial to its long-term viability. The EROI of conventional thermal electricity from fossil fuels has been viewed as being much higher than those of renewable energy life-cycles, and specifically of photovoltaics (PVs). We show that this is largely a misconception fostered by the use of outdated data and, often, a lack of consistency among calculation methods. We hereby present a thorough review of the methodology, discuss methodological variations and present updated EROI values for a range of modern PV systems, in comparison to conventional fossil-fuel based electricity life-cycles. - Highlights: ► We perform a review of the EROI methodology. ► We provide new calculations for PV compared to oil- and coal-based energy systems. ► If compared consistently, PV sits squarely in the same range of EROI as conventional fossil fuel life cycles.

  17. Thermomechanical Fatigue of Ductile Cast Iron and Its Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xijia; Quan, Guangchun; MacNeil, Ryan; Zhang, Zhong; Liu, Xiaoyang; Sloss, Clayton

    2015-06-01

    Thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) behaviors of ductile cast iron (DCI) were investigated under out-of-phase (OP), in-phase (IP), and constrained strain-control conditions with temperature hold in various temperature ranges: 573 K to 1073 K, 723 K to 1073 K, and 433 K to 873 K (300 °C to 800 °C, 450 °C to 800 °C, and 160 °C to 600 °C). The integrated creep-fatigue theory (ICFT) model was incorporated into the finite element method to simulate the hysteresis behavior and predict the TMF life of DCI under those test conditions. With the consideration of four deformation/damage mechanisms: (i) plasticity-induced fatigue, (ii) intergranular embrittlement, (iii) creep, and (iv) oxidation, as revealed from the previous study on low cycle fatigue of the material, the model delineates the contributions of these physical mechanisms in the asymmetrical hysteresis behavior and the damage accumulation process leading to final TMF failure. This study shows that the ICFT model can simulate the stress-strain response and life of DCI under complex TMF loading profiles (OP and IP, and constrained with temperature hold).

  18. Comparisons of prediction models of quality of life after laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a longitudinal prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Yi Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Few studies of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC outcome have used longitudinal data for more than two years. Moreover, no studies have considered group differences in factors other than outcome such as age and nonsurgical treatment. Additionally, almost all published articles agree that the essential issue of the internal validity (reproducibility of the artificial neural network (ANN, support vector machine (SVM, Gaussian process regression (GPR and multiple linear regression (MLR models has not been adequately addressed. This study proposed to validate the use of these models for predicting quality of life (QOL after LC and to compare the predictive capability of ANNs with that of SVM, GPR and MLR. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 400 LC patients completed the SF-36 and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index at baseline and at 2 years postoperatively. The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the system models were mean square error (MSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the variables in order of importance. Compared to SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model generally had smaller MSE and MAPE values in the training data set and test data set. Most ANN models had MAPE values ranging from 4.20% to 8.60%, and most had high prediction accuracy. The global sensitivity analysis also showed that preoperative functional status was the best parameter for predicting QOL after LC. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Compared with SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model in this study was more accurate in predicting patient-reported QOL and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

  19. The Biopharmaceutics Classification System: subclasses for in vivo predictive dissolution (IPD) methodology and IVIVC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsume, Yasuhiro; Mudie, Deanna M; Langguth, Peter; Amidon, Greg E; Amidon, Gordon L

    2014-06-16

    The Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS) has found widespread utility in drug discovery, product development and drug product regulatory sciences. The classification scheme captures the two most significant factors influencing oral drug absorption; solubility and intestinal permeability and it has proven to be a very useful and a widely accepted starting point for drug product development and drug product regulation. The mechanistic base of the BCS approach has, no doubt, contributed to its wide spread acceptance and utility. Nevertheless, underneath the simplicity of BCS are many detailed complexities, both in vitro and in vivo which must be evaluated and investigated for any given drug and drug product. In this manuscript we propose a simple extension of the BCS classes to include sub-specification of acid (a), base (b) and neutral (c) for classes II and IV. Sub-classification for Classes I and III (high solubility drugs as currently defined) is generally not needed except perhaps in border line solubility cases. It is well known that the , pKa physical property of a drug (API) has a significant impact on the aqueous solubility dissolution of drug from the drug product both in vitro and in vivo for BCS Class II and IV acids and bases, and is the basis, we propose for a sub-classification extension of the original BCS classification. This BCS sub-classification is particularly important for in vivo predictive dissolution methodology development due to the complex and variable in vivo environment in the gastrointestinal tract, with its changing pH, buffer capacity, luminal volume, surfactant luminal conditions, permeability profile along the gastrointestinal tract and variable transit and fasted and fed states. We believe this sub-classification is a step toward developing a more science-based mechanistic in vivo predictive dissolution (IPD) methodology. Such a dissolution methodology can be used by development scientists to assess the likelihood of a

  20. A summary of methods of predicting reliability life of nuclear equipment with small samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Weixian

    2000-03-01

    Some of nuclear equipment are manufactured in small batch, e.g., 1-3 sets. Their service life may be very difficult to determine experimentally in view of economy and technology. The method combining theoretical analysis with material tests to predict the life of equipment is put forward, based on that equipment consists of parts or elements which are made of different materials. The whole life of an equipment part consists of the crack forming life (i.e., the fatigue life or the damage accumulation life) and the crack extension life. Methods of predicting machine life has systematically summarized with the emphasis on those which use theoretical analysis to substitute large scale prototype experiments. Meanwhile, methods and steps of predicting reliability life have been described by taking into consideration of randomness of various variables and parameters in engineering. Finally, the latest advance and trends of machine life prediction are discussed

  1. Probabilistic approaches to life prediction of nuclear plant structural components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villain, B.; Pitner, P.; Procaccia, H.

    1996-01-01

    In the last decade there has been an increasing interest at EDF in developing and applying probabilistic methods for a variety of purposes. In the field of structural integrity and reliability they are used to evaluate the effect of deterioration due to aging mechanisms, mainly on major passive structural components such as steam generators, pressure vessels and piping in nuclear plants. Because there can be numerous uncertainties involved in a assessment of the performance of these structural components, probabilistic methods. The benefits of a probabilistic approach are the clear treatment of uncertainly and the possibility to perform sensitivity studies from which it is possible to identify and quantify the effect of key factors and mitigative actions. They thus provide information to support effective decisions to optimize In-Service Inspection planning and maintenance strategies and for realistic lifetime prediction or reassessment. The purpose of the paper is to discuss and illustrate the methods available at EDF for probabilistic component life prediction. This includes a presentation of software tools in classical, Bayesian and structural reliability, and an application on two case studies (steam generator tube bundle, reactor pressure vessel). (authors)

  2. Probabilistic approaches to life prediction of nuclear plant structural components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villain, B.; Pitner, P.; Procaccia, H.

    1996-01-01

    In the last decade there has been an increasing interest at EDF in developing and applying probabilistic methods for a variety of purposes. In the field of structural integrity and reliability they are used to evaluate the effect of deterioration due to aging mechanisms, mainly on major passive structural components such as steam generators, pressure vessels and piping in nuclear plants. Because there can be numerous uncertainties involved in an assessment of the performance of these structural components, probabilistic methods provide an attractive alternative or supplement to more conventional deterministic methods. The benefits of a probabilistic approach are the clear treatment of uncertainty and the possibility to perform sensitivity studies from which it is possible to identify and quantify the effect of key factors and mitigative actions. They thus provide information to support effective decisions to optimize In-Service Inspection planning and maintenance strategies and for realistic lifetime prediction or reassessment. The purpose of the paper is to discuss and illustrate the methods available at EDF for probabilistic component life prediction. This includes a presentation of software tools in classical, Bayesian and structural reliability, and an application on two case studies (steam generator tube bundle, reactor pressure vessel)

  3. A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianzhong Jay; Datta, Koushik; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

  4. Predicting the accumulated number of plugged tubes in a steam generator using statistical methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferng, Y.-M.; Fan, C.N.; Pei, B.S.; Li, H.-N.

    2008-01-01

    A steam generator (SG) plays a significant role not only with respect to the primary-to-secondary heat transfer but also as a fission product barrier to prevent the release of radionuclides. Tube plugging is an efficient way to avoid releasing radionuclides when SG tubes are severely degraded. However, this remedial action may cause the decrease of SG heat transfer capability, especially in transient or accident conditions. It is therefore crucial for the plant staff to understand the trend of plugged tubes for the SG operation and maintenance. Statistical methodologies are proposed in this paper to predict this trend. The accumulated numbers of SG plugged tubes versus the operation time are predicted using the Weibull and log-normal distributions, which correspond well with the plant measured data from a selected pressurized water reactor (PWR). With the help of these predictions, the accumulated number of SG plugged tubes can be reasonably extrapolated to the 40-year operation lifetime (or even longer than 40 years) of a PWR. This information can assist the plant policymakers to determine whether or when a SG must be replaced

  5. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-21

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  6. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  7. Power Prediction Model for Turning EN-31 Steel Using Response Surface Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hameedullah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Power consumption in turning EN-31 steel (a material that is most extensively used in automotive industry with tungstencarbide tool under different cutting conditions was experimentally investigated. The experimental runs were planned accordingto 24+8 added centre point factorial design of experiments, replicated thrice. The data collected was statisticallyanalyzed using Analysis of Variance technique and first order and second order power consumption prediction models weredeveloped by using response surface methodology (RSM. It is concluded that second-order model is more accurate than thefirst-order model and fit well with the experimental data. The model can be used in the automotive industries for decidingthe cutting parameters for minimum power consumption and hence maximum productivity

  8. Feasibility Study on the Satellite Rainfall Data for Prediction of Sediment- Related Disaster by the Japanese Prediction Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimizu, Y.; Ishizuka, T.; Osanai, N.; Okazumi, T.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, the sediment-related disaster prediction method which based ground gauged rainfall-data, currently practiced in Japan was coupled with satellite rainfall data and applied to domestic large-scale sediment-related disasters. The study confirmed the feasibility of this integrated method. In Asia, large-scale sediment-related disasters which can sweep away an entire settlement occur frequently. Leyte Island suffered from a huge landslide in 2004, and Typhoon Molakot in 2009 caused huge landslides in Taiwan. In the event of these sediment-related disasters, immediate responses by central and local governments are crucial in crisis management. In general, there are not enough rainfall gauge stations in developing countries. Therefore national and local governments have little information to determine the risk level of water induced disasters in their service areas. In the Japanese methodology, a criterion is set by combining two indices: the short-term rainfall index and long-term rainfall index. The short-term rainfall index is defined as the 60-minute total rainfall; the long-term rainfall index as the soil-water index, which is an estimation of the retention status of fallen rainfall in soil. In July 2009, a high-density sediment related disaster, or a debris flow, occurred in Hofu City of Yamaguchi Prefecture, in the western region of Japan. This event was calculated by the Japanese standard methodology, and then analyzed for its feasibility. Hourly satellite based rainfall has underestimates compared with ground based rainfall data. Long-term index correlates with each other. Therefore, this study confirmed that it is possible to deliver information on the risk level of sediment-related disasters such as shallow landslides and debris flows. The prediction method tested in this study is expected to assist for timely emergency responses to rainfall-induced natural disasters in sparsely gauged areas. As the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Plan

  9. A new methodology for predicting flow induced vibration in industrial components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gay, N.

    1997-12-01

    Flow induced vibration damage is a major concern for designers and operators of industrial components. For example, nuclear power plant operators have currently to deal with such flow induced vibration problems, in steam generator tube bundles, control rods or nuclear fuel assemblies. Some methodologies have thus been recently proposed to obtain an accurate description of the flow induced vibration phenomena. These methodologies are based on unsteady semi-analytical models for fluid-dynamic forces, associated with non-dimensional fluid force coefficients generally obtained from experiments. The aim is to determine the forces induced by the flow on the structure, and then to take account of these forces to derive the dynamic behaviour of the component under flow excitation. The approach is based on a general model for fluid-dynamic forces, using several non-dimensional parameters that cannot be reached through computation. These parameters are then determined experimentally on simplified test sections, representative of the component, of the flow and of the fluid-elastic coupling phenomena. Predicting computations of the industrial component can then be performed for various operating configurations, by applying laws of similarity. The major physical mechanisms involved in complex fluid-structure interaction phenomena have been understood and modelled. (author)

  10. Predictive Model and Methodology for Heat Treatment Distortion Final Report CRADA No. TC-298-92

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikkel, D. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); McCabe, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-10-16

    This project was a multi-lab, multi-partner CRADA involving LLNL, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Martin Marietta Energy Systems and the industrial partner, The National Center of Manufacturing Sciences (NCMS). A number of member companies of NCMS participated including General Motors Corporation, Ford Motor Company, The Torrington Company, Gear Research, the Illinois Institute of Technology Research Institute, and Deformation Control Technology •. LLNL was the lead laboratory for metrology technology used for validation of the computational tool/methodology. LLNL was also the lead laboratory for the development of the software user interface , for the computational tool. This report focuses on the participation of LLNL and NCMS. The purpose of the project was to develop a computational tool/methodology that engineers would use to predict the effects of heat treatment on the _size and shape of industrial parts made of quench hardenable alloys. Initially, the target application of the tool was gears for automotive power trains.

  11. Regression methodology in groundwater composition estimation with composition predictions for Romuvaara borehole KR10

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luukkonen, A.; Korkealaakso, J.; Pitkaenen, P. [VTT Communities and Infrastructure, Espoo (Finland)

    1997-11-01

    Teollisuuden Voima Oy selected five investigation areas for preliminary site studies (1987Ae1992). The more detailed site investigation project, launched at the beginning of 1993 and presently supervised by Posiva Oy, is concentrated to three investigation areas. Romuvaara at Kuhmo is one of the present target areas, and the geochemical, structural and hydrological data used in this study are extracted from there. The aim of the study is to develop suitable methods for groundwater composition estimation based on a group of known hydrogeological variables. The input variables used are related to the host type of groundwater, hydrological conditions around the host location, mixing potentials between different types of groundwater, and minerals equilibrated with the groundwater. The output variables are electrical conductivity, Ca, Mg, Mn, Na, K, Fe, Cl, S, HS, SO{sub 4}, alkalinity, {sup 3}H, {sup 14}C, {sup 13}C, Al, Sr, F, Br and I concentrations, and pH of the groundwater. The methodology is to associate the known hydrogeological conditions (i.e. input variables), with the known water compositions (output variables), and to evaluate mathematical relations between these groups. Output estimations are done with two separate procedures: partial least squares regressions on the principal components of input variables, and by training neural networks with input-output pairs. Coefficients of linear equations and trained networks are optional methods for actual predictions. The quality of output predictions are monitored with confidence limit estimations, evaluated from input variable covariances and output variances, and with charge balance calculations. Groundwater compositions in Romuvaara borehole KR10 are predicted at 10 metre intervals with both prediction methods. 46 refs.

  12. Towards evaluation and prediction of building sustainability using life cycle behaviour simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzouk Mohamed

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays researchers and practitioners are oriented towards questioning how effective are the different building life cycle activities contribution to preserving the environment and fulfilling the need for equilibrium. Terminologies such as Building sustainability and Green Buildings have long been adopted yet the evaluation of such has been driven through the use of rating systems. LEED of the United States, BREEAM of the United Kingdom, and Pearl of the United Arab Emirates are namely good examples of these rating systems. This paper introduces a new approach for evaluation of building life cycle sustainability through simulation of activities interaction and studying its behaviour. The effort focuses on comprehending impact and effect of suitability related activities over the whole building life cycle or period of time. The methodology includes gathering a pool of parameters through benchmarking of five selected rating systems, analytical factorization for the gathered parameters is used to elect the most influencing parameters. Followed by simulation modelling using System dynamics to capture the interaction of the considered parameters. The resulting behaviour obtained from simulation is studied and used in designing a tool for prediction of sustainability.

  13. Research on bearing life prediction based on support vector machine and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Chuang; Zhang Zhousuo; He Zhengjia

    2011-01-01

    Life prediction of rolling element bearing is the urgent demand in engineering practice, and the effective life prediction technique is beneficial to predictive maintenance. Support vector machine (SVM) is a novel machine learning method based on statistical learning theory, and is of advantage in prediction. This paper develops SVM-based model for bearing life prediction. The inputs of the model are features of bearing vibration signal and the output is the bearing running time-bearing failure time ratio. The model is built base on a few failed bearing data, and it can fuse information of the predicted bearing. So it is of advantage to bearing life prediction in practice. The model is applied to life prediction of a bearing, and the result shows the proposed model is of high precision.

  14. Exhaled nitric oxide measurements in the first 2 years of life: methodological issues, clinical and epidemiological applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Benedictis Fernando M

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO is a useful tool to diagnose and monitor eosinophilic bronchial inflammation in asthmatic children and adults. In children younger than 2 years of age FeNO has been successfully measured both with the tidal breathing and with the single breath techniques. However, there are a number of methodological issues that need to be addressed in order to increase the reproducibility of the FeNO measurements within and between infants. Indeed, a standardized method to measure FeNO in the first 2 years of life would be extremely useful in order to meaningfully interpret FeNO values in this age group. Several factors related to the measurement conditions have been found to influence FeNO, such as expiratory flow, ambient NO and nasal contamination. Furthermore, the exposure to pre- and postnatal risk factors for respiratory morbidity has been shown to influence FeNO values. Therefore, these factors should always be assessed and their association with FeNO values in the specific study population should be evaluated and, eventually, controlled for. There is evidence consistently suggesting that FeNO is increased in infants with family history of atopy/atopic diseases and in infants with recurrent wheezing. These findings could support the hypothesis that eosinophilic bronchial inflammation is present at an early stage in those infants at increased risk of developing persistent respiratory symptoms and asthma. Furthermore, it has been shown that FeNO measurements could represent a useful tool to assess bronchial inflammation in other airways diseases, such as primary ciliary dyskinesia, bronchopulmonary dysplasia and cystic fibrosis. Further studies are needed in order to improve the reproducibility of the measurements, and large prospective studies are warranted in order to evaluate whether FeNO values measured in the first years of life can predict the future development of asthma or other respiratory diseases.

  15. Analytical tools and methodologies for evaluation of residual life of contacting pressure tubes in the early generation of Indian PHWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, S.K.; Madhusoodanan, K.; Rupani, B.B.; Sinha, R.K.

    2002-01-01

    In-service life of a contacting Zircaloy-2 pressure tube (PT) in the earlier generation of Indian PHWRs, is limited mainly due to the accelerated hydrogen pick-up and nucleation and growth of hydride blister(s) at the cold spot(s) formed on outside surface of pressure tube as a result of its contact with the calandria tube (CT). The activities involving development of the analytical models for simulating the degradation mechanisms leading to PT-CT contact and the methodologies for the revaluation of their safe life under such condition form the important part of our extensive programme for the life management of contacting pressure tubes. Since after the PT-CT contact, rate of hydrogen pick-up and nucleation and growth of hydride blisters govern the safe residual life of the pressure tube, two analytical models (a) hydrogen pick-up model ('HYCON') and (b) model for the nucleation and growth of hydride blister at the contact spot ('BLIST -2D') have been developed in-house to estimate the extent of degradation caused by them. Along with them, a methodology for evaluation of safe residual life has also been formulated for evaluating the safe residual life of the contacting channels. This paper gives the brief description of the models and the methodologies relevant for the contacting Zircaloy-2 pressure tubes. (author)

  16. Ways that Social Change Predicts Personal Quality of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Leung, Kwok

    2010-01-01

    A notable way that social change affects personal quality of life would rely on the person's experience with social change. This experience may influence societal quality of life and quality of work life, which may in turn affect personal quality of life. Additionally, the experience of social change is possibly less detrimental to personal…

  17. Hybrid intelligent methodology to design translation invariant morphological operators for Brazilian stock market prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Ricardo de A

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents a hybrid intelligent methodology to design increasing translation invariant morphological operators applied to Brazilian stock market prediction (overcoming the random walk dilemma). The proposed Translation Invariant Morphological Robust Automatic phase-Adjustment (TIMRAA) method consists of a hybrid intelligent model composed of a Modular Morphological Neural Network (MMNN) with a Quantum-Inspired Evolutionary Algorithm (QIEA), which searches for the best time lags to reconstruct the phase space of the time series generator phenomenon and determines the initial (sub-optimal) parameters of the MMNN. Each individual of the QIEA population is further trained by the Back Propagation (BP) algorithm to improve the MMNN parameters supplied by the QIEA. Also, for each prediction model generated, it uses a behavioral statistical test and a phase fix procedure to adjust time phase distortions observed in stock market time series. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed method through four Brazilian stock market time series, and the achieved results are discussed and compared to results found with random walk models and the previously introduced Time-delay Added Evolutionary Forecasting (TAEF) and Morphological-Rank-Linear Time-lag Added Evolutionary Forecasting (MRLTAEF) methods. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Predicting losing and gaining river reaches in lowland New Zealand based on a statistical methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jing; Zammit, Christian; Dudley, Bruce

    2017-04-01

    The phenomenon of losing and gaining in rivers normally takes place in lowland where often there are various, sometimes conflicting uses for water resources, e.g., agriculture, industry, recreation, and maintenance of ecosystem function. To better support water allocation decisions, it is crucial to understand the location and seasonal dynamics of these losses and gains. We present a statistical methodology to predict losing and gaining river reaches in New Zealand based on 1) information surveys with surface water and groundwater experts from regional government, 2) A collection of river/watershed characteristics, including climate, soil and hydrogeologic information, and 3) the random forests technique. The surveys on losing and gaining reaches were conducted face-to-face at 16 New Zealand regional government authorities, and climate, soil, river geometry, and hydrogeologic data from various sources were collected and compiled to represent river/watershed characteristics. The random forests technique was used to build up the statistical relationship between river reach status (gain and loss) and river/watershed characteristics, and then to predict for river reaches at Strahler order one without prior losing and gaining information. Results show that the model has a classification error of around 10% for "gain" and "loss". The results will assist further research, and water allocation decisions in lowland New Zealand.

  19. Methodology for predicting ultimate pressure capacity of the ACR-1000 containment structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saudy, A.M.; Awad, A.; Elgohary, M.

    2006-01-01

    The Advanced CANDU Reactor or the ACR-1000 is developed by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) to be the next step in the evolution of the CANDU product line. It is based on the proven CANDU technology and incorporates advanced design technologies. The ACR containment structure is an essential element of the overall defense in depth approach to reactor safety, and is a physical barrier against the release of radioactive material to the environment. Therefore, it is important to provide a robust design with an adequate margin of safety. One of the key design requirements of the ACR containment structure is to have an ultimate pressure capacity that is at least twice the design pressure Using standard design codes, the containment structure is expected to behave elastically at least up to 1.5 times the design pressure. Beyond this pressure level, the concrete containment structure with reinforcements and post-tension tendons behaves in a highly non-linear manner and exhibits a complex response when cracks initiate and propagate. To predict the structural non-linear responses, at least two critical features are involved. These are: the structural idealization by the geometry and material property models, and the adopted solution algorithm. Therefore, detailed idealization of the concrete structure is needed in order to accurately predict its ultimate pressure capacity. This paper summarizes the analysis methodology to be carried out to establish the ultimate pressure capacity of the ACR containment structure and to confirm that the structure meets the specified design requirements. (author)

  20. An appraisal of wind speed distribution prediction by soft computing methodologies: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petković, Dalibor; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Saboohi, Hadi; Abdul Wahab, Ainuddin Wahid; Protić, Milan; Zalnezhad, Erfan; Mirhashemi, Seyed Mohammad Amin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Probabilistic distribution functions of wind speed. • Two parameter Weibull probability distribution. • To build an effective prediction model of distribution of wind speed. • Support vector regression application as probability function for wind speed. - Abstract: The probabilistic distribution of wind speed is among the more significant wind characteristics in examining wind energy potential and the performance of wind energy conversion systems. When the wind speed probability distribution is known, the wind energy distribution can be easily obtained. Therefore, the probability distribution of wind speed is a very important piece of information required in assessing wind energy potential. For this reason, a large number of studies have been established concerning the use of a variety of probability density functions to describe wind speed frequency distributions. Although the two-parameter Weibull distribution comprises a widely used and accepted method, solving the function is very challenging. In this study, the polynomial and radial basis functions (RBF) are applied as the kernel function of support vector regression (SVR) to estimate two parameters of the Weibull distribution function according to previously established analytical methods. Rather than minimizing the observed training error, SVR p oly and SVR r bf attempt to minimize the generalization error bound, so as to achieve generalized performance. According to the experimental results, enhanced predictive accuracy and capability of generalization can be achieved using the SVR approach compared to other soft computing methodologies

  1. Use of USLE/GIS methodology for predicting soil loss in a semiarid agricultural watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdogan, Emrah H; Erpul, Günay; Bayramin, Ilhami

    2007-08-01

    The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is an erosion model to estimate average soil loss that would generally result from splash, sheet, and rill erosion from agricultural plots. Recently, use of USLE has been extended as a useful tool predicting soil losses and planning control practices in agricultural watersheds by the effective integration of the GIS-based procedures to estimate the factor values in a grid cell basis. This study was performed in the Kazan Watershed located in the central Anatolia, Turkey, to predict soil erosion risk by the USLE/GIS methodology for planning conservation measures in the site. Rain erosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), and cover management factor (C) values of the model were calculated from erosivity map, soil map, and land use map of Turkey, respectively. R values were site-specifically corrected using DEM and climatic data. The topographical and hydrological effects on the soil loss were characterized by LS factor evaluated by the flow accumulation tool using DEM and watershed delineation techniques. From resulting soil loss map of the watershed, the magnitude of the soil erosion was estimated in terms of the different soil units and land uses and the most erosion-prone areas where irreversible soil losses occurred were reasonably located in the Kazan watershed. This could be very useful for deciding restoration practices to control the soil erosion of the sites to be severely influenced.

  2. Determination of cadmium relative bioavailability in contaminated soils and its prediction using in vitro methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhasz, Albert L; Weber, John; Naidu, Ravi; Gancarz, Dorota; Rofe, Allan; Todor, Damian; Smith, Euan

    2010-07-01

    In this study, cadmium (Cd) relative bioavailability in contaminated (n = 5) and spiked (n = 2) soils was assessed using an in vivo mouse model following administration of feed containing soil or Cd acetate (reference material) over a 15 day exposure period. Cadmium relative bioavailability varied depending on whether the accumulation of Cd in the kidneys, liver, or kidney plus liver was used for relative bioavailability calculations. When kidney plus liver Cd concentrations were used, Cd relative bioavailability ranged from 10.1 to 92.1%. Cadmium relative bioavailability was higher (14.4-115.2%) when kidney Cd concentrations were used, whereas lower values (7.2-76.5%) were derived when liver Cd concentrations were employed in calculations. Following in vivo studies, four in vitro methodologies (SBRC, IVG, PBET, and DIN), encompassing both gastric and intestinal phases, were assessed for their ability to predict Cd relative bioavailability. Pearson correlations demonstrated a strong linear relationship between Cd relative bioavailability and Cd bioaccessibility (0.62-0.91), however, stronger in vivo-in vitro relationships were observed when Cd relative bioavailability was calculated using kidney plus liver Cd concentrations. Whereas all in vitro assays could predict Cd relative bioavailability with varying degrees of confidence (r(2) = 0.348-0.835), large y intercepts were calculated for a number of in vitro assays which is undesirable for in vivo-in vitro predictive models. However, determination of Cd bioaccessibility using the intestinal phase of the PBET assay resulted in a small y intercept (5.14; slope =1.091) and the best estimate of in vivo Cd relative bioavailability (r(2) = 0.835).

  3. Mo(ve)ment methodology – Researching conflictual meanings, double-binds and change in extreme life situations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørck, Line Lerche

    2015-01-01

    and change in conduct of life. This moment-movement methodology is developed in close collaboration with a former biker-gang member - involved as a research apprentice. Together we are developing the methodology, while researching concrete processes of change from biker gang member towards becoming......The social practice theoretical moment-movement methodology explores significant moments in depth, such as moments of frustration, anger, engagement and (be)longing. The moments are conceptualized as part of broader conflictual struggles and processes (movements), which include both continuity...... are reflected when methodological aspects from Collective Biography Work is integrated with a social phenomenological concept of double bind situations (R.D. Laing) into a social practice theoretical moment-movement ethnography....

  4. Lifetime prediction and reliability estimation methodology for Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators by gaseous contamination accelerated degradation testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fubin; Tan, Yuanyuan; Jiang, Zhenhua; Chen, Xun; Wu, Yinong; Zhao, Peng

    2017-12-01

    Lifetime and reliability are the two performance parameters of premium importance for modern space Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators (SPTRs), which are required to operate in excess of 10 years. Demonstration of these parameters provides a significant challenge. This paper proposes a lifetime prediction and reliability estimation method that utilizes accelerated degradation testing (ADT) for SPTRs related to gaseous contamination failure. The method was experimentally validated via three groups of gaseous contamination ADT. First, the performance degradation model based on mechanism of contamination failure and material outgassing characteristics of SPTRs was established. Next, a preliminary test was performed to determine whether the mechanism of contamination failure of the SPTRs during ADT is consistent with normal life testing. Subsequently, the experimental program of ADT was designed for SPTRs. Then, three groups of gaseous contamination ADT were performed at elevated ambient temperatures of 40 °C, 50 °C, and 60 °C, respectively and the estimated lifetimes of the SPTRs under normal condition were obtained through acceleration model (Arrhenius model). The results show good fitting of the degradation model with the experimental data. Finally, we obtained the reliability estimation of SPTRs through using the Weibull distribution. The proposed novel methodology enables us to take less than one year time to estimate the reliability of the SPTRs designed for more than 10 years.

  5. Artificial neural network and response surface methodology modeling in mass transfer parameters predictions during osmotic dehydration of Carica papaya L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Prakash Maran

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a comparative approach was made between artificial neural network (ANN and response surface methodology (RSM to predict the mass transfer parameters of osmotic dehydration of papaya. The effects of process variables such as temperature, osmotic solution concentration and agitation speed on water loss, weight reduction, and solid gain during osmotic dehydration were investigated using a three-level three-factor Box-Behnken experimental design. Same design was utilized to train a feed-forward multilayered perceptron (MLP ANN with back-propagation algorithm. The predictive capabilities of the two methodologies were compared in terms of root mean square error (RMSE, mean absolute error (MAE, standard error of prediction (SEP, model predictive error (MPE, chi square statistic (χ2, and coefficient of determination (R2 based on the validation data set. The results showed that properly trained ANN model is found to be more accurate in prediction as compared to RSM model.

  6. Ghrelin level negatively predicts quality of life in obese women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, P H; Song, Y L; Hsu, C H

    2017-02-01

    A cross-sectional cohort study was conducted to investigate whether ghrelin level in obese women predicts the quality of life (QOL). A total of 307 subjects fulfilled the criteria: (1) age between 20 and 65 years old, (2) body mass index ≥27 kg/m 2 (3) waist circumference ≥80 cm were enrolled in the study. All subjects were assigned to one of the plasma ghrelin level categories according to the quartiles. The median of age and BMI of the 307 obese women were 45 ± 18 years and 29.9 ± 4.1 kg/m 2 , respectively. The main outcome evaluated is the associations of plasma ghrelin level and QOL, which were evaluated using multiple linear regression analysis. Results of linear trend test show significant statistical difference in plasma lipoproteins (triglyceride, cholesterol, HDL-cholestero and LDL-cholesterol = and levels of obesity-related hormone peptides, including leptin, adiponectin, insulin among quartiles of ghrelin. Multiple liner regression analysis of serum obesity-related hormone peptide level and QOL using stepwise method shows ghrelin concentration was the only predictor of QOL, including PCS-12 level (β = -0.18, p = 0.001), MCS-12 level (β = -0.14, p = 0.009), WHOQOL-BREF scores: physical (β = -0.13, p = 0.03), psychological (β = -0.16, p = 0.007), social (β = -0.21, p =  ghrelin concentration is strongly associated with QOL level among obese women. Hence, ghrelin concentration might be a valuable marker to be monitored in obese women.

  7. Screw Remaining Life Prediction Based on Quantum Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaochen Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To predict the remaining life of ball screw, a screw remaining life prediction method based on quantum genetic algorithm (QGA and support vector machine (SVM is proposed. A screw accelerated test bench is introduced. Accelerometers are installed to monitor the performance degradation of ball screw. Combined with wavelet packet decomposition and isometric mapping (Isomap, the sensitive feature vectors are obtained and stored in database. Meanwhile, the sensitive feature vectors are randomly chosen from the database and constitute training samples and testing samples. Then the optimal kernel function parameter and penalty factor of SVM are searched with the method of QGA. Finally, the training samples are used to train optimized SVM while testing samples are adopted to test the prediction accuracy of the trained SVM so the screw remaining life prediction model can be got. The experiment results show that the screw remaining life prediction model could effectively predict screw remaining life.

  8. Predicting Bullying: Exploring the Contributions of Childhood Negative Life Experiences in Predicting Adolescent Bullying Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Nadine M; Morris, Robert G; Piquero, Alex R

    2016-07-01

    Although there has been much interest in research on aggression and in particular bullying, a relatively less charted area of research has centered on articulating a better understanding of the mechanisms and processes by which persons are at increased risk for bullying. Furthermore, those studies that have investigated the linkages between childhood experiences and bullying perpetration have been limited with respect to definitional and operational issues, reliance on cross-sectional data, and the lack of assessing competing explanations of bullying perpetration. Using five waves of data from a community-based longitudinal sample of children followed through age 18 (N = 763), the current study examines the extent to which childhood negative life events in a variety of domains predict adolescent bullying. Results show that early childhood experiences, particularly those within the family and school domains, may alter life trajectories and can act as predictors for later adolescent bullying, thereby underscoring the potential importance that relatively minor experiences can have over the long term. Implications for future research based on these analyses are examined. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Artificial neural network methodology: Application to predict magnetic properties of nanocrystalline alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamzaoui, R.; Cherigui, M.; Guessasma, S.; ElKedim, O.; Fenineche, N.

    2009-01-01

    This paper is dedicated to the optimization of magnetic properties of iron based magnetic materials with regard to milling and coating process conditions using artificial neural network methodology. Fe-20 wt.% Ni and Fe-6.5 wt.% Si, alloys were obtained using two high-energy ball milling technologies, namely a planetary ball mill P4 vario ball mill from Fritsch and planetary ball mill from Retch. Further processing of Fe-Si powder allowed the spraying of the feedstock material using high-velocity oxy-fuel (HVOF) process to obtain a relatively dense coating. Input parameters were the disc Ω and vial ω speed rotations for the milling technique, and spray distance and oxygen flow rate in the case of coating process. Two main magnetic parameters are optimized namely the saturation magnetization and the coercivity. Predicted results depict clearly coupled effects of input parameters to vary magnetic parameters. In particular, the increase of saturation magnetization is correlated to the increase of the product Ωω (shock power) and the product of spray parameters. Largest coercivity values are correlated to the increase of the ratio Ω/ω (shock mode process) and the increase of the product of spray parameters.

  10. Methodological advances in predicting flow-induced dynamics of plants using mechanical-engineering theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Langre, Emmanuel

    2012-03-15

    The modeling of fluid-structure interactions, such as flow-induced vibrations, is a well-developed field of mechanical engineering. Many methods exist, and it seems natural to apply them to model the behavior of plants, and potentially other cantilever-like biological structures, under flow. Overcoming this disciplinary divide, and the application of such models to biological systems, will significantly advance our understanding of ecological patterns and processes and improve our predictive capabilities. Nonetheless, several methodological issues must first be addressed, which I describe here using two practical examples that have strong similarities: one from agricultural sciences and the other from nuclear engineering. Very similar issues arise in both: individual and collective behavior, small and large space and time scales, porous modeling, standard and extreme events, trade-off between the surface of exchange and individual or collective risk of damage, variability, hostile environments and, in some aspects, evolution. The conclusion is that, although similar issues do exist, which need to be exploited in some detail, there is a significant gap that requires new developments. It is obvious that living plants grow in and adapt to their environment, which certainly makes plant biomechanics fundamentally distinct from classical mechanical engineering. Moreover, the selection processes in biology and in human engineering are truly different, making the issue of safety different as well. A thorough understanding of these similarities and differences is needed to work efficiently in the application of a mechanistic approach to ecology.

  11. Experience and benefits from using the EPRI MOV Performance Prediction Methodology in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, T.; Damerell, P.S.

    1999-01-01

    The EPRI MOV Performance Prediction Methodology (PPM) is an effective tool for evaluating design basis thrust and torque requirements for MOVs. Use of the PPM has become more widespread in US nuclear power plants as they close out their Generic Letter (GL) 89-10 programs and address MOV periodic verification per GL 96-05. The PPM has also been used at plants outside the US, many of which are implementing programs similar to US plants' GL 89-10 programs. The USNRC Safety Evaluation of the PPM and the USNRC's discussion of the PPM in GL 96-05 make the PPM an attractive alternative to differential pressure (DP) testing, which can be costly and time-consuming. Significant experience and benefits, which are summarized in this paper, have been gained using the PPM. Although use of PPM requires a commitment of resources, the benefits of a solidly justified approach and a reduced need for DP testing provide a substantial safety and economic benefit. (author)

  12. Creep lifing methodologies applied to a single crystal superalloy by use of small scale test techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffs, S.P., E-mail: s.p.jeffs@swansea.ac.uk [Institute of Structural Materials, Swansea University, Singleton Park SA2 8PP (United Kingdom); Lancaster, R.J. [Institute of Structural Materials, Swansea University, Singleton Park SA2 8PP (United Kingdom); Garcia, T.E. [IUTA (University Institute of Industrial Technology of Asturias), University of Oviedo, Edificio Departamental Oeste 7.1.17, Campus Universitario, 33203 Gijón (Spain)

    2015-06-11

    In recent years, advances in creep data interpretation have been achieved either by modified Monkman–Grant relationships or through the more contemporary Wilshire equations, which offer the opportunity of predicting long term behaviour extrapolated from short term results. Long term lifing techniques prove extremely useful in creep dominated applications, such as in the power generation industry and in particular nuclear where large static loads are applied, equally a reduction in lead time for new alloy implementation within the industry is critical. The latter requirement brings about the utilisation of the small punch (SP) creep test, a widely recognised approach for obtaining useful mechanical property information from limited material volumes, as is typically the case with novel alloy development and for any in-situ mechanical testing that may be required. The ability to correlate SP creep results with uniaxial data is vital when considering the benefits of the technique. As such an equation has been developed, known as the k{sub SP} method, which has been proven to be an effective tool across several material systems. The current work now explores the application of the aforementioned empirical approaches to correlate small punch creep data obtained on a single crystal superalloy over a range of elevated temperatures. Finite element modelling through ABAQUS software based on the uniaxial creep data has also been implemented to characterise the SP deformation and help corroborate the experimental results.

  13. Creep lifing methodologies applied to a single crystal superalloy by use of small scale test techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeffs, S.P.; Lancaster, R.J.; Garcia, T.E.

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, advances in creep data interpretation have been achieved either by modified Monkman–Grant relationships or through the more contemporary Wilshire equations, which offer the opportunity of predicting long term behaviour extrapolated from short term results. Long term lifing techniques prove extremely useful in creep dominated applications, such as in the power generation industry and in particular nuclear where large static loads are applied, equally a reduction in lead time for new alloy implementation within the industry is critical. The latter requirement brings about the utilisation of the small punch (SP) creep test, a widely recognised approach for obtaining useful mechanical property information from limited material volumes, as is typically the case with novel alloy development and for any in-situ mechanical testing that may be required. The ability to correlate SP creep results with uniaxial data is vital when considering the benefits of the technique. As such an equation has been developed, known as the k SP method, which has been proven to be an effective tool across several material systems. The current work now explores the application of the aforementioned empirical approaches to correlate small punch creep data obtained on a single crystal superalloy over a range of elevated temperatures. Finite element modelling through ABAQUS software based on the uniaxial creep data has also been implemented to characterise the SP deformation and help corroborate the experimental results

  14. Shelf life prediction of apple brownies using accelerated method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulungan, M. H.; Sukmana, A. D.; Dewi, I. A.

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this research was to determine shelf life of apple brownies. Shelf life was determined with Accelerated Shelf Life Testing method and Arrhenius equation. Experiment was conducted at 25, 35, and 45°C for 30 days. Every five days, the sample was analysed for free fatty acid (FFA), water activity (Aw), and organoleptic acceptance (flavour, aroma, and texture). The shelf life of the apple brownies based on FFA were 110, 54, and 28 days at temperature of 25, 35, and 45°C, respectively.

  15. Prediction information - GRIPDB | LSDB Archive [Life Science Database Archive metadata

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available switchLanguage; BLAST Search Image Search Home About Archive Update History Data List Contact us GRI...a.nbdc01665-004 Description of data contents Predicted GPCR interaction regions Data file File name: gripdb_...predicted_info.zip File URL: ftp://ftp.biosciencedbc.jp/archive/gripdb/LATEST/gripdb_predicted_info.zip File... size: 219 KB Simple search URL http://togodb.biosciencedbc.jp/togodb/view/gripdb...entries Data item Description ID Prediction information ID GRIP ID GRIP ID related wigh the prediction Predi

  16. Broadening the Study of Participation in the Life Sciences: How Critical Theoretical and Mixed-Methodological Approaches Can Enhance Efforts to Broaden Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalf, Heather

    2016-01-01

    This research methods Essay details the usefulness of critical theoretical frameworks and critical mixed-methodological approaches for life sciences education research on broadening participation in the life sciences. First, I draw on multidisciplinary research to discuss critical theory and methodologies. Then, I demonstrate the benefits of these…

  17. The Prediction of Fatigue Life Based on Four Point Bending Test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramesti, F.P.; Molenaar, A.A.A.; Van de Ven, M.F.C.

    2013-01-01

    To be able to devise optimum strategies for maintenance and rehabilitation, it is essential to formulate an accurate prediction of pavement life and its maintenance needs. One of the pavement life prediction methods is based on the pavement's capability to sustain fatigue. If it were possible to

  18. Fatigue crack growth and life prediction under mixed-mode loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajith, S.; Murthy, K. S. R. K.; Robi, P. S.

    2018-04-01

    Fatigue crack growth life as a function of crack length is essential for the prevention of catastrophic failures from damage tolerance perspective. In damage tolerance design approach, principles of fracture mechanics are usually applied to predict the fatigue life of structural components. Numerical prediction of crack growth versus number of cycles is essential in damage tolerance design. For cracks under mixed mode I/II loading, modified Paris law (d/a d N =C (ΔKe q ) m ) along with different equivalent stress intensity factor (ΔKeq) model is used for fatigue crack growth rate prediction. There are a large number of ΔKeq models available for the mixed mode I/II loading, the selection of proper ΔKeq model has significant impact on fatigue life prediction. In the present investigation, the performance of ΔKeq models in fatigue life prediction is compared with respect to the experimental findings as there are no guidelines/suggestions available on the selection of these models for accurate and/or conservative predictions of fatigue life. Within the limitations of availability of experimental data and currently available numerical simulation techniques, the results of present study attempt to outline models that would provide accurate and conservative life predictions. Such a study aid the numerical analysts or engineers in the proper selection of the model for numerical simulation of the fatigue life. Moreover, the present investigation also suggests a procedure to enhance the accuracy of life prediction using Paris law.

  19. Fatigue life prediction for a cold worked T316 stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manjoine, M.J.

    1983-01-01

    Permanent damage curves of initiation-life and propagation-life which predict the fatigue life of specimens of a cold-worked type 316 stainless steel under complex strain-range histories were generated by a limited test program. Analysis of the test data showed that fatigue damage is not linear throughout life and that propagation life is longer than initiation-life at high strain ranges but is shorter at low strain ranges. If permanent damage has been initiated by prior history and/or fabrication, propagation to a given life can occur at a lower strain range than that estimated from the fatigue curves for constant CSR. (author) [pt

  20. Using a life cycle assessment methodology for the analysis of two treatment systems of food-processing industry wastewaters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maya Altamira, Larisa; Schmidt, Jens Ejbye; Baun, Anders

    2007-01-01

    criteria involve sludge disposal strategies and electrical energy consumption. However, there is a need to develop a systematic methodology to quantify relevant environmental indicators; comprising information of the wastewater treatment system in a life cycle perspective. Also, to identify which...... are the parameters that have the greatest influence on the potential environmental impacts of the systems analyzed. In this study, we present a systematic methodology for the analysis of the operation of two modern wastewater treatment technologies: Biological removal of nitrogen and organic matter by activated...... sludge (Scenario 1), and anaerobic removal of organic matter by a continuous stirred tank reactor (Scenario 2). Both technologies were applied to wastewater coming from a fish meals industry and a pet food industry discharging about 250 to 260 thousand cubic meters of wastewater per year. The methodology...

  1. A grey-based group decision-making methodology for the selection of hydrogen technologiess in Life Cycle Sustainability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzardo, Alessandro; Ren, Jingzheng; Mazzi, Anna

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this research is to develop a grey-based group decision-making methodology for the selection of the best renewable energy technology (including hydrogen) using a life cycle sustainability perspective. The traditional grey relational analysis has been modified to better address...... the issue of uncertainty. The proposed methodology allows multi-person to participate in the decision-making process and to give linguistic evaluation on the weights of the criteria and the performance of the alternative technologies. In this paper, twelve hydrogen production technologies have been assessed...... using the proposed methodology, electrolysis of water technology by hydropower has been considered to be the best technology for hydrogen production according to the decision-making group....

  2. The epigenetic landscape in the course of time: Conrad Hal Waddington's methodological impact on the life sciences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baedke, Jan

    2013-12-01

    It seems that the reception of Conrad Hal Waddington's work never really gathered speed in mainstream biology. This paper, offering a transdisciplinary survey of approaches using his epigenetic landscape images, argues that (i) Waddington's legacy is much broader than is usually recognized--it is widespread across the life sciences (e.g. stem cell biology, developmental psychology and cultural anthropology). In addition, I will show that (ii) there exist as yet unrecognized heuristic roles, especially in model building and theory formation, which Waddington's images play within his work. These different methodological facets envisioned by Waddington are used as a natural framework to analyze and classify the manners of usage of epigenetic landscape images in post-Waddingtonian 'landscape approaches'. This evaluation of Waddington's pictorial legacy reveals that there are highly diverse lines of traditions in the life sciences, which are deeply rooted in Waddington's methodological work. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Review of the Remaining Useful Life Prognostics of Vehicle Lithium-Ion Batteries Using Data-Driven Methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lifeng Wu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-ion batteries are the primary power source in electric vehicles, and the prognosis of their remaining useful life is vital for ensuring the safety, stability, and long lifetime of electric vehicles. Accurately establishing a mechanism model of a vehicle lithium-ion battery involves a complex electrochemical process. Remaining useful life (RUL prognostics based on data-driven methods has become a focus of research. Current research on data-driven methodologies is summarized in this paper. By analyzing the problems of vehicle lithium-ion batteries in practical applications, the problems that need to be solved in the future are identified.

  4. The accuracy of dysphoric and nondepressed groups' predictions of life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapçi, E G; Cramer, D

    1998-11-01

    The phenomenon of depressive realism was examined in relation to the future prediction of positive and negative life events. A group of dysphoric (n = 20) and nondepressed (n = 38) British undergraduates participated in a prospective study lasting 3 months. Partly consistent with the depressive realism hypotheses, dysphoric participants were more realistic concerning the negative life events they would experience, but they were less realistic concerning the negative life events they would not experience. Although no difference was found for predicting the occurrence of positive life events, dysphoric participants were found to be more realistic concerning positive life events that they would not experience.

  5. Life Prediction for FRP composites with Data Fusion & Machine Learning

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — High-fidelity, probabilistic predictions of damage evolution in fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) composite structures could accelerate development and certification of...

  6. Attachment Style Predicts Affect, Cognitive Appraisals, and Social Functioning in Daily Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara eSheinbaum

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The way in which attachment styles are expressed in the moment as individuals navigate their real-life settings has remained an area largely untapped by attachment research. The present study examined how adult attachment styles are expressed in daily life using Experience Sampling Methodology (ESM in a sample of 206 Spanish young adults. Participants were administered the Attachment Style Interview and received personal digital assistants that signaled them randomly eight times per day for one week to complete questionnaires about their current experiences and social context. As hypothesized, participants’ momentary affective states, cognitive appraisals, and social functioning varied in meaningful ways as a function of their attachment style. Individuals with an anxious attachment, as compared with securely attached individuals, endorsed experiences that were congruent with hyperactivating tendencies, such as higher negative affect, stress, and perceived social rejection. By contrast, individuals with an avoidant attachment, relative to individuals with a secure attachment, endorsed experiences that were consistent with deactivating tendencies, such as decreased positive states and a decreased desire to be with others when alone. Furthermore, the expression of attachment styles in social contexts was shown to be dependent upon the subjective appraisal of the closeness of social contacts, and not merely upon the presence of social interactions. The findings support the ecological validity of the Attachment Style Interview and the person-by-situation character of attachment theory. Moreover, they highlight the utility of ESM for investigating how the predictions derived from attachment theory play out in the natural flow of real life.

  7. Methodology for experimental validation of a CFD model for predicting noise generation in centrifugal compressors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broatch, A.; Galindo, J.; Navarro, R.; García-Tíscar, J.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A DES of a turbocharger compressor working at peak pressure point is performed. • In-duct pressure signals are measured in a steady flow rig with 3-sensor arrays. • Pressure spectra comparison is performed as a validation for the numerical model. • A suitable comparison methodology is developed, relying on pressure decomposition. • Whoosh noise at outlet duct is detected in experimental and numerical spectra. - Abstract: Centrifugal compressors working in the surge side of the map generate a broadband noise in the range of 1–3 kHz, named as whoosh noise. This noise is perceived at strongly downsized engines operating at particular conditions (full load, tip-in and tip-out maneuvers). A 3-dimensional CFD model of a centrifugal compressor is built to analyze fluid phenomena related to whoosh noise. A detached eddy simulation is performed with the compressor operating at the peak pressure point of 160 krpm. A steady flow rig mounted on an anechoic chamber is used to obtain experimental measurements as a means of validation for the numerical model. In-duct pressure signals are obtained in addition to standard averaged global variables. The numerical simulation provides global variables showing excellent agreement with experimental measurements. Pressure spectra comparison is performed to assess noise prediction capability of numerical model. The influence of the type and position of the virtual pressure probes is evaluated. Pressure decomposition is required by the simulations to obtain meaningful spectra. Different techniques for obtaining pressure components are analyzed. At the simulated conditions, a broadband noise in 1–3 kHz frequency band is detected in the experimental measurements. This whoosh noise is also captured by the numerical model

  8. RANS Based Methodology for Predicting the Influence of Leading Edge Erosion on Airfoil Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langel, Christopher M. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States). Dept. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering; Chow, Raymond C. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States). Dept. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering; van Dam, C. P. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States). Dept. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering; Maniaci, David Charles [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Wind Energy Technologies Dept.

    2017-10-01

    The impact of surface roughness on flows over aerodynamically designed surfaces is of interested in a number of different fields. It has long been known the surface roughness will likely accelerate the laminar- turbulent transition process by creating additional disturbances in the boundary layer. However, there are very few tools available to predict the effects surface roughness will have on boundary layer flow. There are numerous implications of the premature appearance of a turbulent boundary layer. Increases in local skin friction, boundary layer thickness, and turbulent mixing can impact global flow properties compounding the effects of surface roughness. With this motivation, an investigation into the effects of surface roughness on boundary layer transition has been conducted. The effort involved both an extensive experimental campaign, and the development of a high fidelity roughness model implemented in a R ANS solver. Vast a mounts of experimental data was generated at the Texas A&M Oran W. Nicks Low Speed Wind Tunnel for the calibration and validation of the roughness model described in this work, as well as future efforts. The present work focuses on the development of the computational model including a description of the calibration process. The primary methodology presented introduces a scalar field variable and associated transport equation that interacts with a correlation based transition model. The additional equation allows for non-local effects of surface roughness to be accounted for downstream of rough wall sections while maintaining a "local" formulation. The scalar field is determined through a boundary condition function that has been calibrated to flat plate cases with sand grain roughness. The model was initially tested on a NACA 0012 airfoil with roughness strips applied to the leading edge. Further calibration of the roughness model was performed using results from the companion experimental study on a NACA 633 -418 airfoil

  9. Crack Growth-Based Predictive Methodology for the Maintenance of the Structural Integrity of Repaired and Nonrepaired Aging Engine Stationary Components

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Barron, Michael

    1999-01-01

    .... Specifically, the FAA's goal was to develop "Crack Growth-Based Predictive Methodologies for the Maintenance of the Structural Integrity of Repaired and Nonrepaired Aging Engine Stationary Components...

  10. Development and application of a statistical methodology to evaluate the predictive accuracy of building energy baseline models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Granderson, Jessica [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Technologies Area Div.; Price, Phillip N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Technologies Area Div.

    2014-03-01

    This paper documents the development and application of a general statistical methodology to assess the accuracy of baseline energy models, focusing on its application to Measurement and Verification (M&V) of whole-­building energy savings. The methodology complements the principles addressed in resources such as ASHRAE Guideline 14 and the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol. It requires fitting a baseline model to data from a ``training period’’ and using the model to predict total electricity consumption during a subsequent ``prediction period.’’ We illustrate the methodology by evaluating five baseline models using data from 29 buildings. The training period and prediction period were varied, and model predictions of daily, weekly, and monthly energy consumption were compared to meter data to determine model accuracy. Several metrics were used to characterize the accuracy of the predictions, and in some cases the best-­performing model as judged by one metric was not the best performer when judged by another metric.

  11. Life prediction methods for the combined creep-fatigue endurance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wareing, J.; Lloyd, G.J.

    1980-09-01

    The basis and current status of development of the various approaches to the prediction of the combined creep-fatigue endurance are reviewed. It is concluded that an inadequate materials data base makes it difficult to draw sensible conclusions about the prediction capabilities of each of the available methods. Correlation with data for stainless steel 304 and 316 is presented. (U.K.)

  12. Theory and methodology in predicting the religious tourism in Buddhist regions of Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr E. Tsarkov

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Article reviews the theoretical and methodological aspects of forecasting the touristic migrations. The theoretical approach is designed according to the anthropological theory of cultural exchange, tourism forecasting methodology developed by the author basing on an interdisciplinary approach. The author facilitates an original approach which assesses the touristic potential of Buddhist regions of Russia on the basis of their aesthetic appeal.

  13. Development of a Methodology for Predicting Forest Area for Large-Area Resource Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    William H. Cooke

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southcm Research Station, appointed a remote-sensing team to develop an image-processing methodology for mapping forest lands over large geographic areds. The team has presented a repeatable methodology, which is based on regression modeling of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Landsat Thematic...

  14. Global life satisfaction predicts ambulatory affect, stress, and cortisol in daily life in working adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Joshua M; Zawadzki, Matthew J; Juth, Vanessa; Sciamanna, Christopher N

    2017-04-01

    Global life satisfaction has been linked with long-term health advantages, yet how life satisfaction impacts the trajectory of long-term health is unclear. This paper examines one such possible mechanism-that greater life satisfaction confers momentary benefits in daily life that accumulate over time. A community sample of working adults (n = 115) completed a measure of life satisfaction and then three subsequent days of ecological momentary assessment surveys (6 times/day) measuring affect (i.e., emotional valence, arousal), and perceived stress, and also provided salivary cortisol samples. Multilevel models indicated that people with higher (vs. lower) levels of life satisfaction reported better momentary affect, less stress, marginally lower momentary levels and significantly altered diurnal slopes of cortisol. Findings suggest individuals with high global life satisfaction have advantageous daily experiences, providing initial evidence for potential mechanisms through which global life satisfaction may help explain long-term health benefits.

  15. Methodology for the Life Cycle Assessment of a Car-sharing Service

    OpenAIRE

    Guyon, Olivier

    2017-01-01

    Nowadays, circular economy is becoming more relevant in society. In the context of the automotive industry, we no longer simply work on emissions emitted during the vehicle use phase but rather on the environmental impacts induced during all phases of the vehicle's life cycle (manufacturing, logistics, use, maintenance and end of life). For this purpose, many automakers, including the Group PSA, use life cycle assessment (LCA) to determine these environmental impacts. Also, the economy of sha...

  16. Elaboration of the methodological referential for life cycle analysis of first generation biofuels in the French context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This study was made under the particular context of a strong growth of biofuels market, and the implication of French and European public authorities, and certain Member States (Germany, Netherlands, UK), for the development of certification schemes for first generation biofuels. The elaboration of such schemes requires a consensus on the methodology to apply when producing Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) of biofuels. To answer this demand, the study built up the methodological referential for biofuels LCAs in order to assess the Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions, fossil fuels consumptions and local atmospheric pollutants emissions induced by the different biofuel production pathways. The work consisted in methodological engineering, and was accomplished thanks to the participation of all the members of the Technical Committee of the study. An initial bibliographic review on biofuels LCAs allowed the identification of the main methodological issues (listed below). For each point, the impact of the methodological choices on the biofuels environmental balances was assessed by several sensitivity analyses. The results of these analyses were taken into account for the elaboration of the recommendations: - Consideration of the environmental burdens associated with buildings, equipments and their maintenance - Quantification of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from fields - Impact of the Land Use Change (LUC) - Allocation method for the distribution of the environmental impacts of biofuel production pathways between the different products and coproducts generated. Within the framework of this study, we made no distinction in terms of methodological approach between GHG emissions and local pollutants emissions. This results from the fact that the methodological issues cover all the environmental burdens and do not require specific approaches. This executive summary presents the methodological aspects related to biofuels LCAs. The complete report of the study presents in addition

  17. Fatigue life prediction of autofrettage tubes using actual material behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jahed, Hamid; Farshi, Behrooz; Hosseini, Mohammad

    2006-01-01

    There is a profound Bauschinger effect in the behaviour of high-strength steels used in autofrettaged tubes. This has led to development of methods capable of considering experimentally obtained (actual) material behaviour in residual stress calculations. The extension of these methods to life calculations is presented here. To estimate the life of autofrettaged tubes with a longitudinal surface crack emanating from the bore more accurately, instead of using idealized models, the experimental loading-unloading stress-strain behaviour is employed. The resulting stresses are then used to calculate stress intensity factors by the weight function method as input to fatigue life determination. Fatigue lives obtained using the actual material behaviour are then compared with the results of frequently used ideal models including those considering Bauschinger effect factors and strain hardening in unloading. Using standard fatigue crack growth relationships, life of the vessel is then calculated based on recommended initial and final crack length. It is shown that the life gain due to autofrettage above 70% overstrain is considerable

  18. Landslide hazard assessment : LIFE+IMAGINE project methodology and Liguria region use case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spizzichino, Daniele; Campo, Valentina; Congi, Maria Pia; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Leoni, Gabriele; Trigila, Alessandro

    2015-04-01

    Scope of the work is to present a methodology developed for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement a web services-based infrastructure addressed to environmental analysis, that integrates, in its own architecture, specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services has been customized to provide functionalities for supporting environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure has been applied to landslide risk scenarios, developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. The landslide pilot and related scenario are focused at providing a simplified Landslide Risk Assessment (LRA) through: 1) a landslide inventory derived from available historical and recent databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements 5) development of a use case; 6) definition of guidelines, best practices and production of thematic maps. The LRA has been implemented in Liguria region, Italy, in two different catchment areas located in the Cinque Terre National Park, characterized by a high landslide susceptibility and low resilience. The landslide risk impact analysis has been calibrated taking into account the socio-economic damage caused by landslides triggered by the October 2011 meteorological event. During this event, over 600 landslides were triggered in the selected pilot area. Most of landslides affected the diffuse system of anthropogenic terraces and caused the direct

  19. A method for uncertainty quantification in the life prediction of gas turbine components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lodeby, K.; Isaksson, O.; Jaervstraat, N. [Volvo Aero Corporation, Trolhaettan (Sweden)

    1998-12-31

    A failure in an aircraft jet engine can have severe consequences which cannot be accepted and high requirements are therefore raised on engine reliability. Consequently, assessment of the reliability of life predictions used in design and maintenance are important. To assess the validity of the predicted life a method to quantify the contribution to the total uncertainty in the life prediction from different uncertainty sources is developed. The method is a structured approach for uncertainty quantification that uses a generic description of the life prediction process. It is based on an approximate error propagation theory combined with a unified treatment of random and systematic errors. The result is an approximate statistical distribution for the predicted life. The method is applied on life predictions for three different jet engine components. The total uncertainty became of reasonable order of magnitude and a good qualitative picture of the distribution of the uncertainty contribution from the different sources was obtained. The relative importance of the uncertainty sources differs between the three components. It is also highly dependent on the methods and assumptions used in the life prediction. Advantages and disadvantages of this method is discussed. (orig.) 11 refs.

  20. Accident risk-based life cycle assessment methodology for green and safe fuel selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khakzad, Sina; Khan, Faisal; Abbassi, Rouzbeh; Khakzad Rostami, N.

    2017-01-01

    Using the emissions produced during the entire life-cycle of a fuel or a product, Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is an effective technique widely used to estimate environmental impacts. However, most of the conventional LCA methods consider the impacts of voluntary releases such as discharged toxic

  1. Quality Adjusted Life Years and Trade Off Exercises : exploring methodology and validity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Marieke

    2006-01-01

    Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) are a popular outcome measure in cost-effectiveness analyses. QALYs are computed by multiplying follow-up or survival by a scaling factor reflecting health related quality of life, and as such capture quantity and quality gains simultaneously. Issues with regard

  2. Personality predicts recurrence of late-life depression.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steunenberg, B.; Beekman, A.T.F.; Deeg, D.J.H.; Kerkhof, A.J.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To examine the association of personality with recurrence of depression in later life. Method: A subsample of 91 subjects from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA; baseline sample size n = 3107; aged ≥ 55 years) depressed at baseline, who had recovered in the course of three

  3. A study of fatigue life prediction for automotive spot weldment using local strain approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Song In; Yu, Hyo Sun; Na, Sung Hun; Na, Eui Gyun

    2000-01-01

    The fatigue crack initiation life is studied on automotive spot weldment made from cold rolled carbon steel(SPC) sheet by using DCPDM and local strain approach. It can be found that the fatigue crack initiation behavior in spot weldment can be definitely detected by DCPDM system. The local stresses and strains are estimated by elastic-plastic FEM analysis and the alternative approximate method based on Neuber's rule were applied to predict the fatigue life of spot weldment. A satisfactory correlation between the predicted life and experimental life can be found in spot weldment within a factor of 4

  4. Conceptual issues of research methodology for the behavioural, life and social sciences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mellenbergh, G.J.; Adèr, H.J.; Baird, D.; Berger, M.P.F.; Cornell, J.E.; Hagenaars, J.A.P.; Molenaar, P.C.M.

    2003-01-01

    Research methodology (RM) must be clearly separated from substantive fields, such as medicine, psychology, education, sociology and economics, and, on the other side, from the philosophy of science and statistics. RM starts from substantive research problems and uses statistical knowledge, but it

  5. Meteoritic Input of Amino Acids and Nucleobases: Methodology and Implications for the Origins of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Aaron S.; Stern, Jennifer C.; Elsila, Jamie E.; Glavin, Daniel P.; Dworkin, Jason P.

    2012-01-01

    The discoveries of amino acids of extraterrestrial origin in many meteorites over the last 40 years have revolutionized the Astrobiology field. A variety of non-terrestrial amino acids similar to those found in life on Earth have been detected in meteorites. A few amino acids have even been found with chiral excesses, suggesting that meteorites could have contributed to the origin of homochirality in life on Earth. In addition to amino acids, which have been productively studied for years, sugar-like molecules, activated phosphates, and nucleobases have also been determined to be indigenous to numerous meteorites. Because these molecules are essential for life as we know it, and meteorites have been delivering them to the Earth since accretion, it is plausible that the origin(s) of life on Earth were aided by extraterrestrially-synthesized molecules. Understanding the origins of life on Earth guides our search for life elsewhere, helping to answer the question of whether biology is unique to Earth. This tutorial review focuses on meteoritic amino acids and nucleobases, exploring modern analytical methods and possible formation mechanisms. We will also discuss the unique window that meteorites provide into the chemistry that preceded life on Earth, a chemical record we do not have access to on Earth due to geologic recycling of rocks and the pervasiveness of biology across the planet. Finally, we will address the future of meteorite research, including asteroid sample return mIssIons.

  6. Life prediction for white OLED based on LSM under lognormal distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianping; Liu, Fang; Liu, Yu; Wu, Helen; Zhu, Wenqing; Wu, Wenli; Wu, Liang

    2012-09-01

    In order to acquire the reliability information of White Organic Light Emitting Display (OLED), three groups of OLED constant stress accelerated life tests (CSALTs) were carried out to obtain failure data of samples. Lognormal distribution function was applied to describe OLED life distribution, and the accelerated life equation was determined by Least square method (LSM). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to verify whether the white OLED life meets lognormal distribution or not. Author-developed software was employed to predict the average life and the median life. The numerical results indicate that the white OLED life submits to lognormal distribution, and that the accelerated life equation meets inverse power law completely. The estimated life information of the white OLED provides manufacturers and customers with important guidelines.

  7. Predicting protein complexes from weighted protein-protein interaction graphs with a novel unsupervised methodology: Evolutionary enhanced Markov clustering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Pavlopoulou, Niki; Papasavvas, Christoforos; Likothanassis, Spiros; Dimitrakopoulos, Christos; Georgopoulos, Efstratios; Moschopoulos, Charalampos; Mavroudi, Seferina

    2015-03-01

    Proteins are considered to be the most important individual components of biological systems and they combine to form physical protein complexes which are responsible for certain molecular functions. Despite the large availability of protein-protein interaction (PPI) information, not much information is available about protein complexes. Experimental methods are limited in terms of time, efficiency, cost and performance constraints. Existing computational methods have provided encouraging preliminary results, but they phase certain disadvantages as they require parameter tuning, some of them cannot handle weighted PPI data and others do not allow a protein to participate in more than one protein complex. In the present paper, we propose a new fully unsupervised methodology for predicting protein complexes from weighted PPI graphs. The proposed methodology is called evolutionary enhanced Markov clustering (EE-MC) and it is a hybrid combination of an adaptive evolutionary algorithm and a state-of-the-art clustering algorithm named enhanced Markov clustering. EE-MC was compared with state-of-the-art methodologies when applied to datasets from the human and the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae organisms. Using public available datasets, EE-MC outperformed existing methodologies (in some datasets the separation metric was increased by 10-20%). Moreover, when applied to new human datasets its performance was encouraging in the prediction of protein complexes which consist of proteins with high functional similarity. In specific, 5737 protein complexes were predicted and 72.58% of them are enriched for at least one gene ontology (GO) function term. EE-MC is by design able to overcome intrinsic limitations of existing methodologies such as their inability to handle weighted PPI networks, their constraint to assign every protein in exactly one cluster and the difficulties they face concerning the parameter tuning. This fact was experimentally validated and moreover, new

  8. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-01-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions. PMID:28429710

  9. Self-Predictions and Depressive Realism in Future Life Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Todd J.; And Others

    Research has demonstrated that depressed people lack the optimistic bias evidenced by nondepressed persons and that the former may be more realistic in predicting the outcome of future events (depressive realism hypothesis). This study assesses the depressive realism hypothesis by comparing the accuracy of depressed and nondepressed people's…

  10. Predicting the evolution of social networks with life cycle events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sharmeen, F.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a model of social network evolution, to predict and simulate changes in social networks induced by lifecycle events. We argue that social networks change with lifecycle events, and we extend a model of friendship selection to incorporate these dynamics of personal social

  11. Predicting the Remaining Useful Life of Rolling Element Bearings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hooghoudt, Jan Otto; Jantunen, E; Yi, Yang

    2018-01-01

    Condition monitoring of rolling element bearings is of vital importance in order to keep the industrial wheels running. In wind industry this is especially important due to the challenges in practical maintenance. The paper presents an attempt to improve the capability of prediction of remaining...

  12. Fatigue life prediction of fiber reinforced concrete under flexural load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jun; Stang, Henrik; Li, Victor

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a semi-analytical method to predict fatigue behavior in flexure of fiber reinforced concrete (FRC) based on the equilibrium of force in the critical cracked section. The model relies on the cyclic bridging law, the so-called stress-crack width relationship under cyclic tensile...

  13. Fatigue life prediction of pedicle screw for spinal surgery

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Major, Štěpán; Kocour, Vladimír; Cyrus, P.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 35 (2016), s. 379-388 ISSN 1971-8993. [European Conference on Fracture. ECF21. Catania, 20.06.2015-20.06.2015] Institutional support: RVO:68378297 Keywords : pedicle-screw * titan alloy * fatigue life * finite element analysis Subject RIV: JK - Corrosion ; Surface Treatment of Materials http://www.fracturae.com/index.php/fis/article/view/IGF-ESIS.35.43

  14. Predicting quality of work life on nurses' intention to leave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Wen; Dai, Yu-Tzu; Park, Chang-Gi; McCreary, Linda L

    2013-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between quality of work life (QWL) and nurses' intention to leave their organization (ITLorg). A descriptive cross-sectional survey design was conducted using purposive sampling of 1,283 nurses at seven hospitals in Taiwan. Data were collected from March to June 2012. Three questionnaires, including the Chinese version of the Quality of Nursing Work Life scale (C-QNWL), a questionnaire of intention to leave the organization, and a demographic questionnaire, with two informed consent forms were delivered to the nurses at their workplaces. Descriptive data, Pearson's correlations, and the ordinal regression model were analyzed. Over half (52.5%) of nurses had ITLorg. Seven QWL dimensions were significantly negatively correlated with ITLorg (r = -0.17 to -0.37, p working in a nonteaching hospital. Four of the QWL dimensions--supportive milieu with job security and professional recognition, work arrangement and workload, work or home life balance, and nursing staffing and patient care--were also predictors of ITLorg. Three QWL dimensions were not predictors of ITLorg. This study showed that individual-related variables (being single, having a diploma or lower educational level), a work-related variable (working at a nonteaching hospital), and the four QWL dimensions play a significant role in nurses' ITLorg. After the QWL dimensions were added to the regression, the variance explained by the model more than doubled. To reduce nurses' ITLorg, nursing administrators may offer more focused interventions to improve the supportive milieu with job security and professional recognition, work arrangement and workload, work or home life balance, and nursing staffing and patient care. © 2013 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  15. Stress analysis and life prediction of gas turbine blade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiung, H. C.; Dunn, A. J.; Woodling, D. R.; Loh, D. L.

    1988-01-01

    A stress analysis procedure is presented for a redesign of the Space Shuttle Main Engine high pressure fuel turbopump turbine blades. The analysis consists of the one-dimensional scoping analysis to support the design layout and the follow-on three-dimensional finite element analysis to confirm the blade design at operating loading conditions. Blade life is evaluated based on high-cycle fatigue and low-cycle fatigue.

  16. Life cycle assessment in green chemistry: overview of key parameters and methodological concerns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tufvesson, Linda M.; Tufvesson, Pär; Woodley, John

    2013-01-01

    assessment (LCA) is a valuable methodology. However, on the planning stage, a full-scale LCA is considered to be too time consuming and complicated. Two reasons for this have been recognised, the method is too comprehensive and it is hard to find inventory data. In this review, key parameters are presented...... with the purpose to reduce the time-consuming steps in LCA.In this review, several LCAs of so-called ‘green chemicals’ are analysed and key parameters and methodological concerns are identified. Further, some conclusions on the environmental performance of chemicals were drawn.For fossil-based platform chemicals...... chemicals was identified. The environmental performance of bulk chemicals are closely connected to the production of the raw material and thereby different land use aspects. Here, a lot can be learnt from biofuel LCAs. In many of the reviewed articles focusing on bulk chemicals a comparison regarding fossil...

  17. Characterizing Cracking and Permanent Deformation; An Attempt for Predicting the End of the Structural Pavement Life

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramesti, F.P.; Molenaar, A.A.A.; van de Ven, M.F.C.

    2017-01-01

    Durable, therefore sustainable, road needs to attain specific characteristics, among others, resistance to permanent deformation and cracking. Determining the development of both characteristics are important to be able to predict pavement life and performance. In this research, permanent

  18. Study on effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of thin film structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Myung Soo [Ahtti Co., Seongnam (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jun Hyu [Tongmyong University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung Yup [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-15

    This paper describes the effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of structure made with thin film. It is well known that the mean stress influences fatigue life prediction of mechanical structure. We investigated a reasonable method for considering mean stress when fatigue strength assessment of micro structure of thin film should be performed. Fatigue tests of smooth specimen of beryllium-copper (BeCu) thin film were performed in ambient air at R = 0.1 with 5 Hz. A micro probe was designed and made with BeCu thin film by the precision press process. Fatigue tests of micro structure were performed with 5 Hz frequency, in ambient air to verify the fatigue life predicted by computer simulation through FE analysis. The fatigue life predicted by the Sa -N curve modified by Goodman method with principal stress through FE analysis shows a more reasonable result than other methods.

  19. Extreme Environment Damage Index and Accumulation Model for CMC Laminate Fatigue Life Prediction, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Materials Research & Design (MR&D) is proposing in the SBIR Phase II an effort to develop a tool for predicting the fatigue life of C/SiC composite...

  20. Study on effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of thin film structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Myung Soo; Park, Jun Hyu; Kim, Jung Yup

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of structure made with thin film. It is well known that the mean stress influences fatigue life prediction of mechanical structure. We investigated a reasonable method for considering mean stress when fatigue strength assessment of micro structure of thin film should be performed. Fatigue tests of smooth specimen of beryllium-copper (BeCu) thin film were performed in ambient air at R = 0.1 with 5 Hz. A micro probe was designed and made with BeCu thin film by the precision press process. Fatigue tests of micro structure were performed with 5 Hz frequency, in ambient air to verify the fatigue life predicted by computer simulation through FE analysis. The fatigue life predicted by the Sa -N curve modified by Goodman method with principal stress through FE analysis shows a more reasonable result than other methods

  1. A proposal of parameter to predict biaxial fatigue life for CF8M cast stainless steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Joong Cheul; Kwon, Jae Do

    2005-01-01

    Biaxial low cycle fatigue test was carried out to predict fatigue life under combined axial-torsional loading condition which is that of in-phase and out-of-phase for CF8M cast stainless steels. Fatemi Socie(FS) parameter which is based on critical plane approach is not only one of methods but also the best method that can predict fatigue life under biaxial loading condition. But the result showed that, biaxial fatigue life prediction by using FS parameter with several different parameters for the CF8M cast stainless steels is not conservative but best results. So in this present research, we proposed new fatigue life prediction parameter considering effective shear stress instead of FS parameter which considers the maximum normal stress acting on maximum shear strain and its effectiveness was verified

  2. General life satisfaction predicts dementia in community living older adults: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitsch, Lorraine; Tyas, Suzanne L; Menec, Verena H; St John, Philip D

    2016-07-01

    Low life satisfaction predicts adverse outcomes, and may predict dementia. The objectives were: (1) to determine if life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in those with normal cognition at baseline; and (2) to determine if different aspects of life satisfaction differentially predict dementia. Secondary analysis of an existing population-based cohort study with initial assessment in 1991 and follow-up five years later. Initially, 1,751 adults age 65+ living in the community were sampled from a representative sampling frame. Of these, 1,024 were alive and had complete data at time 2, of whom 96 were diagnosed with dementia. Life satisfaction was measured using the Terrible-Delightful scale, which measures overall life satisfaction on a 7-point scale, as well as various aspects of life satisfaction (e.g. friendships, finances, etc.) Dementia was diagnosed by clinical examination using DSM-IIIR criteria. Logistic regression models were constructed for the outcome of dementia at time 2, and adjusted for age, gender, education, and comorbidities. Overall life satisfaction predicted dementia five years later, at time 2. The unadjusted Odds Ratio (OR; 95% confidence interval) for dementia at time 2 was 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) per point. The adjusted OR for dementia was 0.70 (0.51, 0.96). No individual item on the life satisfaction scale predicted dementia. However, the competing risk of mortality was very high for some items. A global single-item measure of life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in older adults without cognitive impairment.

  3. Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binienda, Wieslaw K.

    1995-01-01

    Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.

  4. [Quality of life - methodology and clinical practice aspects with a focus on ocular medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, G H; Gall, C

    2008-08-01

    Due to the demographic development in western industrialised countries, the proportion of visually impaired persons is likely to increase in the future. Currently there is a shift in scientific recognition from relative neglect of psychopathological distress in the visually impaired to better notice of disease-related subjective impairments that are detectable with specific questionnaire measures. Visual acuity primarily determines the subjective rating of visual functioning independent from the eye disease. Ophthalmic patients who show only mild symptoms from a medical point of view normally suffer considerably diminished vision-related quality of life with respect to physical, functional, mental, and social aspects. Treatment effects have been shown using vision-related quality-of-life measures for different ophthalmic diseases, particularly cataract surgery. Assessment of vision-related quality of life provides a meaningful complement to objective data.

  5. Multicriteria decision-making analysis based methodology for predicting carbonate rocks' uniaxial compressive strength

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ersoy Hakan

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    ABSTRACT

    Uniaxial compressive strength (UCS deals with materials' to ability to withstand axially-directed pushing forces and especially considered to be rock materials' most important mechanical properties. However, the UCS test is an expensive, very time-consuming test to perform in the laboratory and requires high-quality core samples having regular geometry. Empirical equations were thus proposed for predicting UCS as a function of rocks' index properties. Analytical hierarchy process and multiple regression analysis based methodology were used (as opposed to traditional linear regression methods on data-sets obtained from carbonate rocks in NE Turkey. Limestone samples ranging from Devonian to late Cretaceous ages were chosen; travertine-onyx samples were selected from morphological environments considering their surface environmental conditions Test results from experiments carried out on about 250 carbonate rock samples were used in deriving the model. While the hierarchy model focused on determining the most important index properties affecting on UCS, regression analysis established meaningful relationships between UCS and index properties; 0. 85 and 0. 83 positive coefficient correlations between the variables were determined by regression analysis. The methodology provided an appropriate alternative to quantitative estimation of UCS and avoided the need for tedious and time consuming laboratory testing


    RESUMEN

    La resistencia a la compresión uniaxial (RCU trata con la capacidad de los materiales para soportar fuerzas empujantes dirigidas axialmente y, especialmente, es considerada ser uno de las más importantes propiedades mecánicas de

  6. Structural health monitoring for fatigue life prediction of orthotropic brdige decks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pijpers, R.J.M.; Pahlavan, P.L.; Paulissen, J.H.; Hakkesteegt, H.C.; Jansen, T.H.

    2013-01-01

    Infrastructure asset owners are more and more confronted with structures reaching the end of their structural life. Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems should provide up-to-date information about the actual condition, as well predict the structural life and required maintenance of the assets

  7. Academic Life Satisfaction Scale (ALSS) and Its Effectiveness in Predicting Academic Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.K. Sudheesh; P., Dileep

    2006-01-01

    This study is undertaken to examine the effectiveness of a newly constructed psychometric instrument to assess Academic Life Satisfaction along with the components of Emotional Intelligence. The Academic Life Satisfaction Scale is used to predict the scholastic achievement as an index of Academic success. The investigators found that Academic Life…

  8. Fatigue life prediction and strength degradation of wind turbine rotor blade composites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijssen, R.P.L.

    2006-01-01

    Wind turbine rotor blades are subjected to a large number of highly variable loads, but life predictions are typically based on constant amplitude fatigue behaviour. Therefore, it is important to determine how service life under variable amplitude fatigue can be estimated from constant amplitude

  9. Stand-alone flat-plate photovoltaic power systems: System sizing and life-cycle costing methodology for Federal agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borden, C. S.; Volkmer, K.; Cochrane, E. H.; Lawson, A. C.

    1984-01-01

    A simple methodology to estimate photovoltaic system size and life-cycle costs in stand-alone applications is presented. It is designed to assist engineers at Government agencies in determining the feasibility of using small stand-alone photovoltaic systems to supply ac or dc power to the load. Photovoltaic system design considerations are presented as well as the equations for sizing the flat-plate array and the battery storage to meet the required load. Cost effectiveness of a candidate photovoltaic system is based on comparison with the life-cycle cost of alternative systems. Examples of alternative systems addressed are batteries, diesel generators, the utility grid, and other renewable energy systems.

  10. Aluminum 7075-T6 fatigue data generation and probabilistic life prediction formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Kemna, John G.

    1998-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The life extension of aging fleet aircraft requires an assessment of the safe-life remaining after refurbishment. Risk can be estimated by conventional deterministic fatigue analysis coupled with a subjective factor of safety. Alternatively, risk can be quantitatively and objectively predicted by probabilistic analysis. In this investigation, a general probabilistic life formulation is specialized for constant amplitude, fully reverse...

  11. Prediction of selectivity from morphological conditions: Methodology and a case study on cod (Gadus morhua)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herrmann, Bent; Krag, Ludvig Ahm; Frandsen, Rikke

    2009-01-01

    The FISHSELECT methodology. tools, and software were developed and used to measure the morphological parameters that determine the ability of cod to penetrate different mesh types, sizes, and openings. The shape of one cross-section at the cod's head was found to explain 97.6% of the mesh...

  12. Testing and Life Prediction for Composite Rotor Hub Flexbeams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murri, Gretchen B.

    2004-01-01

    A summary of several studies of delamination in tapered composite laminates with internal ply-drops is presented. Initial studies used 2D FE models to calculate interlaminar stresses at the ply-ending locations in linear tapered laminates under tension loading. Strain energy release rates for delamination in these laminates indicated that delamination would likely start at the juncture of the tapered and thin regions and grow unstably in both directions. Tests of glass/epoxy and graphite/epoxy linear tapered laminates under axial tension delaminated as predicted. Nonlinear tapered specimens were cut from a full-size helicopter rotor hub and were tested under combined constant axial tension and cyclic transverse bending loading to simulate the loading experienced by a rotorhub flexbeam in flight. For all the tested specimens, delamination began at the tip of the outermost dropped ply group and grew first toward the tapered region. A 2D FE model was created that duplicated the test flexbeam layup, geometry, and loading. Surface strains calculated by the model agreed very closely with the measured surface strains in the specimens. The delamination patterns observed in the tests were simulated in the model by releasing pairs of MPCs along those interfaces. Strain energy release rates associated with the delamination growth were calculated for several configurations and using two different FE analysis codes. Calculations from the codes agreed very closely. The strain energy release rate results were used with material characterization data to predict fatigue delamination onset lives for nonlinear tapered flexbeams with two different ply-dropping schemes. The predicted curves agreed well with the test data for each case studied.

  13. Prediction of packaging seal life using thermoanalytical techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigrey, P.J.

    1997-11-01

    In this study, Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) has been used to study silicone, Viton and Ethylene Propylene (EPDM) rubber. The studies have shown that TGA accurately predicts the relative order of thermo-oxidative stability of these three materials from the calculated activation energies. As expected, the greatest thermal stability was found in silicone rubber followed by Viton and EPDM rubber. The calculated lifetimes for these materials were in relatively close agreement with published values. The preliminary results also accurately reflect decreased thermal stability and lifetime for EPDM rubber exposed to radiation and chemicals. These results suggest TGA provides a rapid method to evaluate material stability

  14. A novel dataset for real-life evaluation of facial expression recognition methodologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siddiqi, Muhammad Hameed; Ali, Maqbool; Idris, Muhammad; Banos Legran, Oresti; Lee, Sungyoung; Choo, Hyunseung

    2016-01-01

    One limitation seen among most of the previous methods is that they were evaluated under settings that are far from real-life scenarios. The reason is that the existing facial expression recognition (FER) datasets are mostly pose-based and assume a predefined setup. The expressions in these datasets

  15. New methodology in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) of waste water treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Henrik Fred; Wenzel, Henrik; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    chose among different waste water treatments? Which ones are most beneficial in a holistic perspective? Here, the life cycle assessment (LCA) approach as a decision supporting tool may help because its goal is to allow quantification and direct comparison of characteristics as diverse as energy...

  16. Palliative healthcare: cost reduction and quality enhancement using end-of-life survey methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falls, Christopher Edward

    2008-01-01

    American medical institutions throughout the 20th century prescribed high customer satisfaction, but when it came to death, largely ignored it. An accelerated accumulation of esoteric medical information and the application of this knowledge to affect new cures and longer lives instilled an unquestioning reverence for the medical community among the patient population. Diminishing marginal gains in life expectancy, escalating costs related to life sustaining technologies, and a psychographic shift in the dominant consumer base have challenged this traditional reverence. Armed with unprecedented access to medical information, a more knowledgeable and assertive patient population has emerged in the 21st century to institute its own standards of what constitutes quality health care. In terms of end of life care, this has meant recognition that the emotional needs of the dying have been largely underserved by the current American medical model. Patients and their families are no longer willing to accept the traditional medical perspective of death as failure and have numerous international palliative care models that serve as benchmarks of success when it comes to quality of dying. When cure is a possibility, Americans will pursue it at all costs, but when it is not a possibility, they want honest communication and the opportunity to say good-bye to their loved ones. In the context of these emergent needs, life review is offered as a solution. The value proposition targets not only dying patients and their families, but also society as a whole.

  17. Applying unit process life cycle inventor (UPLCI) methodology in product/packaging combinatons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Luttikhuis, Ellen; Toxopeus, Marten E.; Overcash, M.; Nee, Andrew Y.C.; Song, Bin; Ong, Soh-Khim

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses how the UPLCI approach can be used for determining the inventory of the manufacturing phases of product/packaging combinations. The UPLCI approach can make the inventory of the manufacturing process of the product that is investigated more accurate. The life cycle of

  18. A naive Bayes model for robust remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ng, Selina S.Y.; Xing, Yinjiao; Tsui, Kwok L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Robustness of RUL predictions for lithium-ion batteries is analyzed quantitatively. • RUL predictions of the same battery over cycle life are evaluated. • RUL predictions of batteries over different operating conditions are evaluated. • Naive Bayes (NB) is proposed for predictions under constant discharge environments. • Its robustness and accuracy are compared with that of support vector machine (SVM). - Abstract: Online state-of-health (SoH) estimation and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is a critical problem in battery health management. This paper studies the modeling of battery degradation under different usage conditions and ambient temperatures, which is seldom considered in the literature. Li-ion battery RUL prediction under constant operating conditions at different values of ambient temperature and discharge current are considered. A naive Bayes (NB) model is proposed for RUL prediction of batteries under different operating conditions. It is shown in this analysis that under constant discharge environments, the RUL of Li-ion batteries can be predicted with the NB method, irrespective of the exact values of the operating conditions. The case study shows that the NB generates stable and competitive prediction performance over that of the support vector machine (SVM). This also suggests that, while it is well known that the environmental conditions have big impact on the degradation trend, it is the changes in operating conditions of a Li-ion battery over cycle life that makes the Li-ion battery degradation and RUL prediction even more difficult

  19. A novel soft tissue prediction methodology for orthognathic surgery based on probabilistic finite element modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoops, Paul G M; Borghi, Alessandro; Ruggiero, Federica; Badiali, Giovanni; Bianchi, Alberto; Marchetti, Claudio; Rodriguez-Florez, Naiara; Breakey, Richard W F; Jeelani, Owase; Dunaway, David J; Schievano, Silvia

    2018-01-01

    Repositioning of the maxilla in orthognathic surgery is carried out for functional and aesthetic purposes. Pre-surgical planning tools can predict 3D facial appearance by computing the response of the soft tissue to the changes to the underlying skeleton. The clinical use of commercial prediction software remains controversial, likely due to the deterministic nature of these computational predictions. A novel probabilistic finite element model (FEM) for the prediction of postoperative facial soft tissues is proposed in this paper. A probabilistic FEM was developed and validated on a cohort of eight patients who underwent maxillary repositioning and had pre- and postoperative cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans taken. Firstly, a variables correlation assessed various modelling parameters. Secondly, a design of experiments (DOE) provided a range of potential outcomes based on uniformly distributed input parameters, followed by an optimisation. Lastly, the second DOE iteration provided optimised predictions with a probability range. A range of 3D predictions was obtained using the probabilistic FEM and validated using reconstructed soft tissue surfaces from the postoperative CBCT data. The predictions in the nose and upper lip areas accurately include the true postoperative position, whereas the prediction under-estimates the position of the cheeks and lower lip. A probabilistic FEM has been developed and validated for the prediction of the facial appearance following orthognathic surgery. This method shows how inaccuracies in the modelling and uncertainties in executing surgical planning influence the soft tissue prediction and it provides a range of predictions including a minimum and maximum, which may be helpful for patients in understanding the impact of surgery on the face.

  20. Life prediction study of reactor pressure vessel as essential technical foundation for plant life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, H.; Nakajima, N.; Kondo, T.

    1987-01-01

    The life of a LWR plant is determined essentially by the limit of reliable performance of the components which are difficult to replace without high economic and/or safety risks. Typical of such a component is the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). The engineering life of a RPV of a given quality of steel is considered to be a complex function of factors such as the resistance to fracture, which has deteriorated due to neutron irradiation and thermal aging, and generation of surface flaws by environmental effects such as corrosion and their growth under operational load that varies during steady state operation and transients. In an attempt to evaluate the engineering life of a RPV of a LWR, a preliminary survey was made by applying a set of knowledge accumulated primarily in the field of subcritical crack growth behavior of RPV steels in reactor water environments. The major conclusions drawn are: (1) the life of a RPV is dependent on the quality of steel used, particularly with respect to any minor impurities it contains. (2) The issue of plant life extension in RPV aspect is found to be optimistic for cases where the steels used satisfy a reasonable level of quality control. (3) The importance of providing sound scientific foundation is stressed for the implementation of a practicable life extension scheme: this can be established through intensified studies of flaw growth and fracture behaviours in well defined testings under reasonably simulated service conditions

  1. Prediction of cladding life in waste package environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCoy, J.K.; Doering, T.W.

    1994-01-01

    Fuel cladding can potentially provide longer containment or slower release of radionuclides from spent fuel after geologic disposal. To predict the amount of benefit that cladding can provide, we surveyed degradation modes and developed a model for creep rupture by diffusion-controlled cavity growth, the mechanism that several authors have concluded is the most important. In this mechanism, voids nucleate on the grain boundaries and grow by diffusion of vacancies along the grain boundaries to the voids. When a certain fraction of the grain boundary area is covered with voids, the material fails. An analytic expression for cladding lifetime is developed. Besides materials constants, the predicted lifetime depends on the temperature history, the hoop stress in the cladding, the spacing between void nuclei, and the micro-structure. The inclusion of microstructure is a significant new feature of the model; this feature is used to help avoid excessive conservatism. The model is applied in a sample calculation for disposal of spent fuel, and the practice of using temperature limits to evaluate repository designs is examined

  2. Gas Generation in Radioactive Wastes - MAGGAS Predictive Life Cycle Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streatfield, R.E.; Hebditch, D.J.; Swift, B.T.; Hoch, A.R.; Constable, M.

    2006-01-01

    Gases may form from radioactive waste in quantities posing different potential hazards throughout the waste package life cycle. The latter includes surface storage, transport, placing in an operating repository, storage in the repository prior to backfill, closure and the post-closure stage. Potentially hazardous situations involving gas include fire, flood, dropped packages, blocked package vents and disruption to a sealed repository. The MAGGAS (Magnox Gas generation) model was developed to assess gas formation for safety assessments during all stages of the waste package life cycle. This is a requirement of the U.K. regulatory authorities and Nirex and progress in this context is discussed. The processes represented in the model include: Corrosion, microbial degradation, radiolysis, solid-state diffusion, chemico-physical degradation and pressurisation. The calculation was split into three time periods. First the 'aerobic phase' is used to model the periods of surface storage, transport and repository operations including storage in the repository prior to backfill. The second and third periods were designated 'anaerobic phase 1' and 'anaerobic phase 2' and used to model the waste packages in the post-closure phase of the repository. The various significant gas production processes are modeled in each phase. MAGGAS (currently Version 8) is mounted on an Excel spreadsheet for ease of use and speed, has 22 worksheets and is operated routinely for assessing waste packages (e.g. for ventilation of stores and pressurisation of containers). Ten operational and decommissioning generic nuclear power station waste streams were defined as initial inputs, which included ion exchange materials, sludges and concentrates, fuel element debris, graphite debris, activated components, contaminated items, desiccants and catalysts. (authors)

  3. Life prediction of different commercial dental implants as influence by uncertainties in their fatigue material properties and loading conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, M A

    2012-12-01

    Probabilistic analyses allow the effect of uncertainty in system parameters to be determined. In the literature, many researchers have investigated static loading effects on dental implants. However, the intrinsic variability and uncertainty of most of the main problem parameters are not accounted for. The objective of this research was to apply a probabilistic computational approach to predict the fatigue life of three different commercial dental implants considering the variability and uncertainty in their fatigue material properties and loading conditions. For one of the commercial dental implants, the influence of its diameter in the fatigue life performance was also studied. This stochastic technique was based on the combination of a probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) and a cumulative damage approach known as B-model. After 6 million of loading cycles, local failure probabilities of 0.3, 0.4 and 0.91 were predicted for the Lifecore, Avinent and GMI implants, respectively (diameter of 3.75mm). The influence of the diameter for the GMI implant was studied and the results predicted a local failure probability of 0.91 and 0.1 for the 3.75mm and 5mm, respectively. In all cases the highest failure probability was located at the upper screw-threads. Therefore, the probabilistic methodology proposed herein may be a useful tool for performing a qualitative comparison between different commercial dental implants. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Life Cycle Assessment for desalination: a review on methodology feasibility and reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jin; Chang, Victor W-C; Fane, Anthony G

    2014-09-15

    As concerns of natural resource depletion and environmental degradation caused by desalination increase, research studies of the environmental sustainability of desalination are growing in importance. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an ISO standardized method and is widely applied to evaluate the environmental performance of desalination. This study reviews more than 30 desalination LCA studies since 2000s and identifies two major issues in need of improvement. The first is feasibility, covering three elements that support the implementation of the LCA to desalination, including accounting methods, supporting databases, and life cycle impact assessment approaches. The second is reliability, addressing three essential aspects that drive uncertainty in results, including the incompleteness of the system boundary, the unrepresentativeness of the database, and the omission of uncertainty analysis. This work can serve as a preliminary LCA reference for desalination specialists, but will also strengthen LCA as an effective method to evaluate the environment footprint of desalination alternatives. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Fatigue Life Prediction of Self-Piercing Rivet Joints Between Magnesium and Aluminum Alloys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang Hong-Tae

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Various light materials including aluminum alloys and magnesium alloys are being used to reduce the weight of vehicle structures. Joining of dissimilar materials is always a challenging task to construct a solid structure. Self-piercing rivet (SPR joint is one of various joining methods for dissimilar materials. Front shock tower structures were constructed with magnesium alloy (AM60 joined to aluminum alloy (Al6082 by SPR joints. To evaluate the durability performance of the SPR joints in the structures, fatigue tests of the front shock tower structures were conducted with constant amplitude loadings. Furthermore, this study investigated fatigue life prediction method of SPR joints and compared the fatigue life prediction results with that of experimental results. For fatigue life prediction of the SPR joints in the front shock tower structures, lap-shear and cross-tension specimens of SPR joint were constructed and tested to characterize the fatigue properties of the SPR joint. Then, the SPR joint was represented with area contact method (ACM in finite element (FE models. The load-life curves of the lap-shear and cross-tension specimens were converted to a structural stress-life (S-N curve of the SPR joints. The S-N curve was used to predict fatigue life of SPR joints in the front shock tower structures. The test results and the prediction results were well correlated.

  6. Life history of the Small Sandeel, Ammodytes tobianus, inferred from otolith microchemistry. A methodological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laugier, F.; Feunteun, E.; Pecheyran, C.; Carpentier, A.

    2015-11-01

    Knowledge of life history and connectivity between essential ecological habitats are relevant for conservation and management of species and some natural tracers could be used to study the lifecycles of small or short-lived marine fishes. Although sandeels are central in marine food webs and are key species, there is incomplete knowledge about population mixing and migration patterns. For the first time the use of the otolith microchemistry on sandeel species is evaluated in the case of the Small Sandeel. Variations in microchemical fingerprints of 13 trace elements are performed with a Femtosecond LA-ICPM from the core to the margin of sagittal otolith and are compared within and between otoliths extracted from 34 fishes sampled in three different sites along the coast of the south-western English Channel in France. Firstly, preliminary investigations on the validity of the method revealed that Mg/Ca was the only ratio significantly dependant on fish ontogeny and sampling season. Secondly, the Mn/Ca, Zn/Ca, and Cu/Ca ratios enabled us to significantly discriminate among sampling sites. Thirdly, microchemical fingerprints of each life stage varied significantly among sampling sites but not within them, suggesting high site fidelity over relatively short distances. Finally, the fingerprints of all life stages were significantly different from those of the larval and metamorphosis stages. The otolith microchemistry could detect change of signature relative to the shift from a pelagic behaviour to a resident bentho-pelagic behaviour during the middle of the juvenile stage in Small Sandeels. Hence, analysis of trace element fingerprints in otoliths appears to be a valuable method to further studies on ontogenic habitat change, population mixing and variation of life history and be helpful for the management at local or regional scales of short-lived species such as those belonging to other Ammodytidae.

  7. Prediction of multiaxial fatigue life for notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Z. R.; Li, Z. X. [Southeast University, Nanjing (China); Hu, X. T.; Song, Y. D. [Nanjing University, Nanjing (China)

    2016-05-15

    Both the proportional and nonproportional multiaxial fatigue tests were conducted on two kinds of notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4. The multiaxial fatigue critical area of notched specimen is considered as the location experiencing the maximum damage. It is unsatisfactory to predict the multiaxial fatigue life with the local stress and strain in the fatigue critical area. The critical distance concepts are employed in the multiaxial life prediction method for notched specimens. The proposed method was checked by the test data of TC4 notched specimens. The prediction results are almost within a factor of three scatter band of the test results.

  8. Development of laboratory acceleration test method for service life prediction of concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, M. S.; Song, Y. C.; Bang, K. S.; Lee, J. S.; Kim, D. K.

    1999-01-01

    Service life prediction of nuclear power plants depends on the application of history of structures, field inspection and test, the development of laboratory acceleration tests, their analysis method and predictive model. In this study, laboratory acceleration test method for service life prediction of concrete structures and application of experimental test results are introduced. This study is concerned with environmental condition of concrete structures and is to develop the acceleration test method for durability factors of concrete structures e.g. carbonation, sulfate attack, freeze-thaw cycles and shrinkage-expansion etc

  9. SOFT COMPUTING SINGLE HIDDEN LAYER MODELS FOR SHELF LIFE PREDICTION OF BURFI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Goyal

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Burfi is an extremely popular sweetmeat, which is prepared by desiccating the standardized water buffalo milk. Soft computing feedforward single layer models were developed for predicting the shelf life of burfi stored at 30g.C. The data of the product relating to moisture, titratable acidity, free fatty acids, tyrosine, and peroxide value were used as input variables, and the overall acceptability score as output variable. The results showed excellent agreement between the experimental and the predicted data, suggesting that the developed soft computing model can alternatively be used for predicting the shelf life of burfi.

  10. Ageing and life prediction of cast duplex stainless steel components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, H.M.

    1992-01-01

    Cast duplex stainless steels, used extensively in nuclear, chemical and petroleum industries because of higher strength, better weldability, higher resistance to stress corrosion cracking, and soundness of casting, are susceptible to thermal aging embrittlement during service at temperatures as low as ∼250 o C. Recent advances in understanding the aging mechanisms, kinetics, and mechanical properties are presented, with emphasis on application of the material in safety-significant components in a nuclear reactor. Aging embrittlement is primarily due to spinodal decomposition of ferrite involving segregation of Fe, Cr, and Ni, and precipitation of M 23 C 6 on ferrite-austenite boundaries or in ferrite. Aging kinetics are strongly influenced by synergistic effects of other metallurgical reactions that occur in parallel with the spinodal decomposition, i.e. clustering of Ni, Mo, and Si and G-phase precipitation in ferrite. A number of methods are outlined for estimating end-of-life aging, depending on several factors such as degree of permissible conservatism, availability of component archive material, and methods of estimating and verifying the activation energy of aging. (Author)

  11. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  12. A study on the fatigue life prediction of tire belt-layers using probabilistic method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Dong Woo; Park, Jong Sang; Lee, Tae Won; Kim, Seong Rae; Sung, Ki Deug; Huh, Sun Chul

    2013-01-01

    Tire belt separation failure is occurred by internal cracks generated in *1 and *2 belt layers and by its growth. And belt failure seriously affects tire endurance. Therefore, to improve the tire endurance, it is necessary to analyze tire crack growth behavior and predict fatigue life. Generally, the prediction of tire endurance is performed by the experimental method using tire test machine. But it takes much cost and time to perform experiment. In this paper, to predict tire fatigue life, we applied deterministic fracture mechanics approach, based on finite element analysis. Also, probabilistic analysis method based on statistics using Monte Carlo simulation is presented. Above mentioned two methods include a global-local finite element analysis to provide the detail necessary to model explicitly an internal crack and calculate the J-integral for tire life prediction.

  13. Improving life cycle assessment methodology for the application of decision support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herrmann, Ivan Tengbjerg

    for the application of decision support and evaluation of uncertainty in LCA. From a decision maker’s (DM’s) point of view there are at least three main “illness” factors influencing the quality of the information that the DM uses for making decisions. The factors are not independent of each other, but it seems......) refrain from making a decision based on an LCA and thus support a decision on other parameters than the LCA environmental parameters. Conversely, it may in some decision support contexts be acceptable to base a decision on highly uncertain information. This all depends on the specific decision support...... the different steps. A deterioration of the quality in each step is likely to accumulate through the statistical value chain in terms of increased uncertainty and bias. Ultimately this can make final decision support problematic. The "Law of large numbers" (LLN) is the methodological tool/probability theory...

  14. Life prediction of steam generator tubing due to stress corrosion crack using Monte Carlo Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Jun; Liu Fei; Cheng Guangxu; Zhang Zaoxiao

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → A life prediction model for SG tubing was proposed. → The initial crack length for SCC was determined. → Two failure modes called rupture mode and leak mode were considered. → A probabilistic life prediction code based on Monte Carlo method was developed. - Abstract: The failure of steam generator tubing is one of the main accidents that seriously affects the availability and safety of a nuclear power plant. In order to estimate the probability of the failure, a probabilistic model was established to predict the whole life-span and residual life of steam generator (SG) tubing. The failure investigated was stress corrosion cracking (SCC) after the generation of one through-wall axial crack. Two failure modes called rupture mode and leak mode based on probabilistic fracture mechanics were considered in this proposed model. It took into account the variance in tube geometry and material properties, and the variance in residual stresses and operating conditions, all of which govern the propagations of cracks. The proposed model was numerically calculated by using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The plugging criteria were first verified and then the whole life-span and residual life of the SG tubing were obtained. Finally, important sensitivity analysis was also carried out to identify the most important parameters affecting the life of SG tubing. The results will be useful in developing optimum strategies for life-cycle management of the feedwater system in nuclear power plants.

  15. An Analytical Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Fracture Mechanics and Crack Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsø, Jan Behrend; Agerskov, Henning

    1996-01-01

    test specimens are compared with fatigue life predictions using a fracture mechanics approach. In the calculation of the fatigue life, the influence of the welding residual stresses and crack closure on the fatigue crack growth is considered. A description of the crack closure model for analytical...... determination of the fatigue life is included. Furthermore, the results obtained in studies of the various parameters that have an influence on the fatigue life, are given. A very good agreement between experimental and analytical results is obtained, when the crack closure model is used in determination...... of the analytical fatigue lives. Both the analytical and experimental results obtained show that the Miner rule may give quite unconservative predictions of the fatigue life for the types of stochastic loading studied....

  16. An Analytical Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Fracture Mechanics and Crack Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsø, Jan Behrend; Agerskov, Henning

    1996-01-01

    test specimens are compared with fatigue life predictions using a fracture mechanics approach. In the calculation of the fatigue life, the influence of the welding residual stresses and crack closure on the fatigue crack growth is considered. A description of the crack closure model for analytical...... of the analytical fatigue lives. Both the analytical and experimental results obtained show that the Miner rule may give quite unconservative predictions of the fatigue life for the types of stochastic loading studied....... determination of the fatigue life is included. Furthermore, the results obtained in studies of the various parameters that have an influence on the fatigue life, are given. A very good agreement between experimental and analytical results is obtained, when the crack closure model is used in determination...

  17. Towards a Universal Biology: Is the Origin and Evolution of Life Predictable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothschild, Lynn J.

    2017-01-01

    The origin and evolution of life seems an unpredictable oddity, based on the quirks of contingency. Celebrated by the late Stephen Jay Gould in several books, "evolution by contingency" has all the adventure of a thriller, but lacks the predictive power of the physical sciences. Not necessarily so, replied Simon Conway Morris, for convergence reassures us that certain evolutionary responses are replicable. The outcome of this debate is critical to Astrobiology. How can we understand where we came from on Earth without prophesy? Further, we cannot design a rational strategy for the search for life elsewhere - or to understand what the future will hold for life on Earth and beyond - without extrapolating from pre-biotic chemistry and evolution. There are several indirect approaches to understanding, and thus describing, what life must be. These include philosophical approaches to defining life (is there even a satisfactory definition of life?), using what we know of physics, chemistry and life to imagine alternate scenarios, using different approaches that life takes as pseudoreplicates (e.g., ribosomal vs non-ribosomal protein synthesis), and experimental approaches to understand the art of the possible. Given that: (1) Life is a process based on physical components rather than simply an object; (2). Life is likely based on organic carbon and needs a solvent for chemistry, most likely water, and (3) Looking for convergence in terrestrial evolution we can predict certain tendencies, if not quite "laws", that provide predictive power. Biological history must obey the laws of physics and chemistry, the principles of natural selection, the constraints of an evolutionary past, genetics, and developmental biology. This amalgam creates a surprising amount of predictive power in the broad outline. Critical is the apparent prevalence of organic chemistry, and uniformity in the universe of the laws of chemistry and physics. Instructive is the widespread occurrence of

  18. Innovative methodology for intercomparison of radionuclide calibrators using short half-life in situ prepared radioactive sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, P. A.; Santos, J. A. M.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: An original radionuclide calibrator method for activity determination is presented. The method could be used for intercomparison surveys for short half-life radioactive sources used in Nuclear Medicine, such as 99m Tc or most positron emission tomography radiopharmaceuticals. Methods: By evaluation of the resulting net optical density (netOD) using a standardized scanning method of irradiated Gafchromic XRQA2 film, a comparison of the netOD measurement with a previously determined calibration curve can be made and the difference between the tested radionuclide calibrator and a radionuclide calibrator used as reference device can be calculated. To estimate the total expected measurement uncertainties, a careful analysis of the methodology, for the case of 99m Tc, was performed: reproducibility determination, scanning conditions, and possible fadeout effects. Since every factor of the activity measurement procedure can influence the final result, the method also evaluates correct syringe positioning inside the radionuclide calibrator. Results: As an alternative to using a calibrated source sent to the surveyed site, which requires a relatively long half-life of the nuclide, or sending a portable calibrated radionuclide calibrator, the proposed method uses a source preparedin situ. An indirect activity determination is achieved by the irradiation of a radiochromic film using 99m Tc under strictly controlled conditions, and cumulated activity calculation from the initial activity and total irradiation time. The irradiated Gafchromic film and the irradiator, without the source, can then be sent to a National Metrology Institute for evaluation of the results. Conclusions: The methodology described in this paper showed to have a good potential for accurate (3%) radionuclide calibrators intercomparison studies for 99m Tc between Nuclear Medicine centers without source transfer and can easily be adapted to other short half-life radionuclides

  19. A methodology for on line fatigue life monitoring : rainflow cycle counting method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukhopadhyay, N.K.; Dutta, B.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    1992-01-01

    Green's function technique is used in on line fatigue life monitoring to convert plant data to stress versus time data. This technique converts plant data most efficiently to stress versus time data. To compute the fatigue usage factor the actual number of cycles experienced by the component is to be found out from stress versus time data. Using material fatigue properties the fatigue usage factor is to be computed from the number of cycles. Generally the stress response is very irregular in nature. To convert an irregular stress history to stress frequency spectra rainflow cycle counting method is used. This method is proved to be superior to other counting methods and yields best fatigue estimates. A code has been developed which computes the number of cycles experienced by the component from stress time history using rainflow cycle counting method. This postprocessor also computes the accumulated fatigue usage factor from material fatigue properties. The present report describes the development of a code to compute fatigue usage factor using rainflow cycle counting technique and presents a real life case study. (author). 10 refs., 10 figs

  20. LCF life prediction for waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeom, Jong Taek; Park, Nho Kwang

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes the empirical rule of strain rate modified linear accumulation of creep damage(SRM rule) for Low-Cycle Fatigue(LCF) life prediction of Waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime and Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model predicting the stress-strain response in various cyclic loading conditions. The comparison of the experimental data and the predictions for strain controlled LCF tests carried out for various strain ranges at 600 .deg. C and 650 .deg. C was made. Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model described efficiently the inelastic deformation behavior during LCF tests. Crack-initiation lifting method to predict the material life was investigated with Strain Rate Modification(SRM) rule. The application of SRM rule to LCF tests on Waspaloy indicated a good agreement between measured and predicted cycles to failure

  1. Creep-fatigue life prediction method using Diercks equation for Cr-Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonoya, Keiji; Nonaka, Isamu; Kitagawa, Masaki

    1990-01-01

    For dealing with the situation that creep-fatigue life properties of materials do not exist, a development of the simple method to predict creep-fatigue life properties is necessary. A method to predict the creep-fatigue life properties of Cr-Mo steels is proposed on the basis of D. Diercks equation which correlates the creep-fatigue lifes of SUS 304 steels under various temperatures, strain ranges, strain rates and hold times. The accuracy of the proposed method was compared with that of the existing methods. The following results were obtained. (1) Fatigue strength and creep rupture strength of Cr-Mo steel are different from those of SUS 304 steel. Therefore in order to apply Diercks equation to creep-fatigue prediction for Cr-Mo steel, the difference of fatigue strength was found to be corrected by fatigue life ratio of both steels and the difference of creep rupture strength was found to be corrected by the equivalent temperature corresponding to equal strength of both steels. (2) Creep-fatigue life can be predicted by the modified Diercks equation within a factor of 2 which is nearly as precise as the accuracy of strain range partitioning method. Required test and analysis procedure of this method are not so complicated as strain range partitioning method. (author)

  2. Fatigue Life Prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete Based on the Local Stress-Strain Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulian Zheng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Previously published studies have proposed fatigue life prediction models for dense graded asphalt pavement based on flexural fatigue test. This study focused on the fatigue life prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete (HMAC pavement using the local strain-stress method and direct tension fatigue test. First, the direct tension fatigue test at various strain levels was conducted on HMAC prism samples cut from plate specimens. Afterwards, their true stress-strain loop curves were obtained and modified to develop the strain-fatigue life equation. Then the nominal strain of HMAC course determined using finite element method was converted into local strain using the Neuber method. Finally, based on the established fatigue equation and converted local strain, a method to predict the pavement fatigue crack initiation life was proposed and the fatigue life of a typical HMAC overlay pavement which runs a risk of bottom-up cracking was predicted and validated. Results show that the proposed method was able to produce satisfactory crack initiation life.

  3. How long will my mouse live? Machine learning approaches for prediction of mouse life span.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swindell, William R; Harper, James M; Miller, Richard A

    2008-09-01

    Prediction of individual life span based on characteristics evaluated at middle-age represents a challenging objective for aging research. In this study, we used machine learning algorithms to construct models that predict life span in a stock of genetically heterogeneous mice. Life-span prediction accuracy of 22 algorithms was evaluated using a cross-validation approach, in which models were trained and tested with distinct subsets of data. Using a combination of body weight and T-cell subset measures evaluated before 2 years of age, we show that the life-span quartile to which an individual mouse belongs can be predicted with an accuracy of 35.3% (+/-0.10%). This result provides a new benchmark for the development of life-span-predictive models, but improvement can be expected through identification of new predictor variables and development of computational approaches. Future work in this direction can provide tools for aging research and will shed light on associations between phenotypic traits and longevity.

  4. Systematic methodology and property prediction of fatty systems for process design/analysis in the oil and fat industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Díaz Tovar, Carlos Axel; Ceriani, Roberta; Gani, Rafiqul

    2010-01-01

    in the vegetable oil were defined. Basic and critical properties were then computed by means of appropriate property prediction software. Temperature dependant properties were modeled using and extending available correlations. The process model was developed through the PRO II commercial simulator and validated......A systematic model based methodology has been developed and its application highlighted through the solvent recovery section of a soybean oil extraction process, with emphasis on the effect of design variables on the process performance. First, the most representative compounds present...

  5. Methodology for Analyzing and Predicting the Runoff and Sediment into a Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Feng Hao

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid economic growth in China, a large number of hydropower projects have been planned and constructed. The sediment deposition of the reservoirs is one of the most important disputes during the construction and operation, because there are many heavy sediment-laden rivers. The analysis and prediction of the runoff and sediment into a reservoir is of great significance for reservoir operation. With knowledge of the incoming runoff and sediment characteristics, the regulator can adjust the reservoir discharge to guarantee the water supply, and flush more sediment at appropriate times. In this study, the long-term characteristics of runoff and sediment, including trend, jump point, and change cycle, are analyzed using various statistical approaches, such as accumulated anomaly analysis, the Fisher ordered clustering method, and Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA. Based on the characteristics, a prediction model is established using the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARIMA method. The whole analysis and prediction system is applied to The Three Gorges Project (TGP, one of the biggest hydropower-complex projects in the world. Taking hydrologic series from 1955 to 2010 as the research objectives, the results show that both the runoff and the sediment are decreasing, and the reduction rate of sediment is much higher. Runoff and sediment into the TGP display cyclic variations over time, with a cycle of about a decade, but catastrophe points for runoff and sediment appear in 1991 and 2001, respectively. Prediction models are thus built based on monthly average hydrologic series from 2003 to 2010. ARIMA (1, 1, 1 × (1, 1, 112 and ARIMA (0, 1, 1 × (0, 1, 112 are selected for the runoff and sediment predictions, respectively, and the parameters of the models are also calibrated. The analysis of autocorrelation coefficients and partial autocorrelation coefficients of the residuals indicates that the models built in this study are feasible

  6. Breast cancer statistics and prediction methodology: a systematic review and analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, Ashutosh Kumar; Gupta, Umesh; Jain, Sonal

    2015-01-01

    Breast cancer is a menacing cancer, primarily affecting women. Continuous research is going on for detecting breast cancer in the early stage as the possibility of cure in early stages is bright. There are two main objectives of this current study, first establish statistics for breast cancer and second to find methodologies which can be helpful in the early stage detection of the breast cancer based on previous studies. The breast cancer statistics for incidence and mortality of the UK, US, India and Egypt were considered for this study. The finding of this study proved that the overall mortality rates of the UK and US have been improved because of awareness, improved medical technology and screening, but in case of India and Egypt the condition is less positive because of lack of awareness. The methodological findings of this study suggest a combined framework based on data mining and evolutionary algorithms. It provides a strong bridge in improving the classification and detection accuracy of breast cancer data.

  7. The fatigue life prediction of aluminium alloy using genetic algorithm and neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susmikanti, Mike

    2013-09-01

    The behavior of the fatigue life of the industrial materials is very important. In many cases, the material with experiencing fatigue life cannot be avoided, however, there are many ways to control their behavior. Many investigations of the fatigue life phenomena of alloys have been done, but it is high cost and times consuming computation. This paper report the modeling and simulation approaches to predict the fatigue life behavior of Aluminum Alloys and resolves some problems of computation. First, the simulation using genetic algorithm was utilized to optimize the load to obtain the stress values. These results can be used to provide N-cycle fatigue life of the material. Furthermore, the experimental data was applied as input data in the neural network learning, while the samples data were applied for testing of the training data. Finally, the multilayer perceptron algorithm is applied to predict whether the given data sets in accordance with the fatigue life of the alloy. To achieve rapid convergence, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was also employed. The simulations results shows that the fatigue behaviors of aluminum under pressure can be predicted. In addition, implementation of neural networks successfully identified a model for material fatigue life.

  8. Methodology to improve design of accelerated life tests in civil engineering projects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lin

    Full Text Available For reliability testing an Energy Expansion Tree (EET and a companion Energy Function Model (EFM are proposed and described in this paper. Different from conventional approaches, the EET provides a more comprehensive and objective way to systematically identify external energy factors affecting reliability. The EFM introduces energy loss into a traditional Function Model to identify internal energy sources affecting reliability. The combination creates a sound way to enumerate the energies to which a system may be exposed during its lifetime. We input these energies into planning an accelerated life test, a Multi Environment Over Stress Test. The test objective is to discover weak links and interactions among the system and the energies to which it is exposed, and design them out. As an example, the methods are applied to the pipe in subsea pipeline. However, they can be widely used in other civil engineering industries as well. The proposed method is compared with current methods.

  9. Methodology to improve design of accelerated life tests in civil engineering projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jing; Yuan, Yongbo; Zhou, Jilai; Gao, Jie

    2014-01-01

    For reliability testing an Energy Expansion Tree (EET) and a companion Energy Function Model (EFM) are proposed and described in this paper. Different from conventional approaches, the EET provides a more comprehensive and objective way to systematically identify external energy factors affecting reliability. The EFM introduces energy loss into a traditional Function Model to identify internal energy sources affecting reliability. The combination creates a sound way to enumerate the energies to which a system may be exposed during its lifetime. We input these energies into planning an accelerated life test, a Multi Environment Over Stress Test. The test objective is to discover weak links and interactions among the system and the energies to which it is exposed, and design them out. As an example, the methods are applied to the pipe in subsea pipeline. However, they can be widely used in other civil engineering industries as well. The proposed method is compared with current methods.

  10. Prediction of the phase equilibria of methane hydrates using the direct phase coexistence methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michalis, Vasileios K.; Costandy, Joseph; Economou, Ioannis G., E-mail: ioannis.economou@qatar.tamu.edu [Chemical Engineering Program, Texas A and M University at Qatar, P.O. Box 23847, Doha (Qatar); Tsimpanogiannis, Ioannis N.; Stubos, Athanassios K. [Environmental Research Laboratory, National Center for Scientific Research NCSR “Demokritos,” Aghia Paraskevi, Attiki GR-15310 (Greece)

    2015-01-28

    The direct phase coexistence method is used for the determination of the three-phase coexistence line of sI methane hydrates. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are carried out in the isothermal–isobaric ensemble in order to determine the coexistence temperature (T{sub 3}) at four different pressures, namely, 40, 100, 400, and 600 bar. Methane bubble formation that results in supersaturation of water with methane is generally avoided. The observed stochasticity of the hydrate growth and dissociation processes, which can be misleading in the determination of T{sub 3}, is treated with long simulations in the range of 1000–4000 ns and a relatively large number of independent runs. Statistical averaging of 25 runs per pressure results in T{sub 3} predictions that are found to deviate systematically by approximately 3.5 K from the experimental values. This is in good agreement with the deviation of 3.15 K between the prediction of TIP4P/Ice water force field used and the experimental melting temperature of ice Ih. The current results offer the most consistent and accurate predictions from MD simulation for the determination of T{sub 3} of methane hydrates. Methane solubility values are also calculated at the predicted equilibrium conditions and are found in good agreement with continuum-scale models.

  11. An EMD-ANN based prediction methodology for DR driven smart household load demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tascikaraoglu, A.; Paterakis, N.G.; Catalaõ, J.P.S.; Erdinç, O.; Bakirtzis, A.G.

    2015-01-01

    This study proposes a model for the prediction of smart household load demand influenced by a dynamic pricing demand response (DR) program. Price-based DR programs have a considerable impact on household demand pattern due to the expected choice of customers or their home energy management systems

  12. Genome-based prediction of common diseases: Methodological considerations for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.C.J.W. Janssens (Cécile); P. Tikka-Kleemola (Päivi)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThe translation of emerging genomic knowledge into public health and clinical care is one of the major challenges for the coming decades. At the moment, genome-based prediction of common diseases, such as type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer, is still not informative. Our

  13. A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology For Electrolytic Capacitors Based On Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical...

  14. A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for elec- trolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical...

  15. Influences of cyclic deformation on creep property and creep-fatigue life prediction considering them

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yukio

    2009-01-01

    Evaluation of creep-fatigue is essential in design and life management of high-temperature components in power generation plants. Cyclic deformation may alter creep property of the materials and its consideration may improve predictability of creep-fatigue failure life. To understand them, creep tests were conducted for the materials subjected to cyclic loading and their creep rupture and deformation behaviors were compared with those of as-received materials. Both 316FR and modified 9Cr-1Mo steel were tested. (1) Creep rupture time and elongation generally tend to decrease with cyclic loading in both materials, and especially elongation of 316FR drastically decreases by being cyclically deformed. (2) Amount of primary creep deformation decreases by cyclic loading and the ways to improve its predictability were developed. (3) Use of creep rupture ductility after cyclic deformation, instead of that of as-received material, brought about clear improvement of life prediction in a modified ductility exhaustion approach. (author)

  16. The prediction of the residual life of electromechanical equipment based on the artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhukovskiy, Yu L.; Korolev, N. A.; Babanova, I. S.; Boikov, A. V.

    2017-10-01

    This article is devoted to the prediction of the residual life based on an estimate of the technical state of the induction motor. The proposed system allows to increase the accuracy and completeness of diagnostics by using an artificial neural network (ANN), and also identify and predict faulty states of an electrical equipment in dynamics. The results of the proposed system for estimation the technical condition are probability technical state diagrams and a quantitative evaluation of the residual life, taking into account electrical, vibrational, indirect parameters and detected defects. Based on the evaluation of the technical condition and the prediction of the residual life, a decision is made to change the control of the operating and maintenance modes of the electric motors.

  17. ESTABLISHING EMPIRICAL RELATION TO PREDICT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF VORTEX TUBE USING RESPONSE SURFACE METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PRABAKARAN J.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Vortex tube is a device that produces cold and hot air simultaneously from the source of compressed air. In this work an attempt has been made to investigate the effect of three controllable input variables namely diameter of the orifices, diameter of the nozzles and inlet pressure over the temperature difference in the cold side as output using Response Surface Methodology (RSM. Experiments are conducted using central composite design with three factors at three levels. The influence of vital parameters and interaction among these are investigated using analysis of variance (ANOVA. The proposed mathematical model in this study has proven to fit and in line with experimental values with a 95% confidence interval. It is found that the inlet pressure and diameter of nozzle are significant factors that affect the performance of vortex tube.

  18. A comparative study of finite element methodologies for the prediction of torsional response of bladed rotors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheepers, R.; Heyns, P. S.

    2016-01-01

    The prevention of torsional vibration-induced fatigue damage to turbo-generators requires determining natural frequencies by either field testing or mathematical modelling. Torsional excitation methods, measurement techniques and mathematical modelling are active fields of research. However, these aspects are mostly considered in isolation and often without experimental verification. The objective of this work is to compare one dimensional (1D), full three dimensional (3D) and 3D cyclic symmetric (3DCS) Finite element (FE) methodologies for torsional vibration response. Results are compared to experimental results for a small-scale test rotor. It is concluded that 3D approaches are feasible given the current computing technology and require less simplification with potentially increased accuracy. Accuracy of 1D models may be reduced due to simplifications but faster solution times are obtained. For high levels of accuracy model updating using field test results is recommended

  19. GIS-based regionalized life cycle assessment: how big is small enough? Methodology and case study of electricity generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutel, Christopher L; Pfister, Stephan; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2012-01-17

    We describe a new methodology for performing regionalized life cycle assessment and systematically choosing the spatial scale of regionalized impact assessment methods. We extend standard matrix-based calculations to include matrices that describe the mapping from inventory to impact assessment spatial supports. Uncertainty in inventory spatial data is modeled using a discrete spatial distribution function, which in a case study is derived from empirical data. The minimization of global spatial autocorrelation is used to choose the optimal spatial scale of impact assessment methods. We demonstrate these techniques on electricity production in the United States, using regionalized impact assessment methods for air emissions and freshwater consumption. Case study results show important differences between site-generic and regionalized calculations, and provide specific guidance for future improvements of inventory data sets and impact assessment methods.

  20. Life Prediction Issues in Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ashwin R.; Brewer, David N.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

    2001-01-01

    Issues and design requirements for the environmental barrier coating (EBC)/thermal barrier coating (TBC) life that are general and those specific to the NASA Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) development program have been described. The current state and trend of the research, methods in vogue related to the failure analysis, and long-term behavior and life prediction of EBCITBC systems are reported. Also, the perceived failure mechanisms, variables, and related uncertainties governing the EBCITBC system life are summarized. A combined heat transfer and structural analysis approach based on the oxidation kinetics using the Arrhenius theory is proposed to develop a life prediction model for the EBC/TBC systems. Stochastic process-based reliability approach that includes the physical variables such as gas pressure, temperature, velocity, moisture content, crack density, oxygen content, etc., is suggested. Benefits of the reliability-based approach are also discussed in the report.

  1. A methodology to estimate greenhouse gases emissions in Life Cycle Inventories of wastewater treatment plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez-Garcia, G.; Hospido, A.; Bagley, D.M.; Moreira, M.T.; Feijoo, G.

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to present the Direct Emissions Estimation Model (DEEM), a model for the estimation of CO 2 and N 2 O emissions from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). This model is consistent with non-specific but widely used models such as AS/AD and ASM no. 1 and presents the benefits of simplicity and application over a common WWTP simulation platform, BioWin®, making it suitable for Life Cycle Assessment and Carbon Footprint studies. Its application in a Spanish WWTP indicates direct N 2 O emissions to be 8 times larger than those associated with electricity use and thus relevant for LCA. CO 2 emissions can be of similar importance to electricity-associated ones provided that 20% of them are of non-biogenic origin. - Highlights: ► A model has been developed for the estimation of GHG emissions in WWTP. ► Model was consistent with both ASM no. 1 and AS/AD. ► N 2 O emissions are 8 times more relevant than the one associated with electricity. ► CO 2 emissions are as important as electricity if 20% of it is non-biogenic.

  2. A methodology to estimate greenhouse gases emissions in Life Cycle Inventories of wastewater treatment plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez-Garcia, G., E-mail: gonzalo.rodriguez.garcia@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Hospido, A., E-mail: almudena.hospido@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Bagley, D.M., E-mail: bagley@uwyo.edu [Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Wyoming, 82072 Laramie, WY (United States); Moreira, M.T., E-mail: maite.moreira@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Feijoo, G., E-mail: gumersindo.feijoo@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2012-11-15

    The main objective of this paper is to present the Direct Emissions Estimation Model (DEEM), a model for the estimation of CO{sub 2} and N{sub 2}O emissions from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). This model is consistent with non-specific but widely used models such as AS/AD and ASM no. 1 and presents the benefits of simplicity and application over a common WWTP simulation platform, BioWin Registered-Sign , making it suitable for Life Cycle Assessment and Carbon Footprint studies. Its application in a Spanish WWTP indicates direct N{sub 2}O emissions to be 8 times larger than those associated with electricity use and thus relevant for LCA. CO{sub 2} emissions can be of similar importance to electricity-associated ones provided that 20% of them are of non-biogenic origin. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A model has been developed for the estimation of GHG emissions in WWTP. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Model was consistent with both ASM no. 1 and AS/AD. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer N{sub 2}O emissions are 8 times more relevant than the one associated with electricity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CO{sub 2} emissions are as important as electricity if 20% of it is non-biogenic.

  3. Global warming potential of the sulfur-iodine process using life cycle assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lattin, William C.; Utgikar, Vivek P.

    2009-01-01

    A life cycle assessment (LCA) of one proposed method of hydrogen production - thermochemical water-splitting using the sulfur-iodine cycle couple with a very high-temperature nuclear reactor - is presented in this paper. Thermochemical water-splitting theoretically offers a higher overall efficiency than high-temperature electrolysis of water because heat from the nuclear reactor is provided directly to the hydrogen generation process, instead of using the intermediate step of generating electricity. The primary heat source for the S-I cycle is an advanced nuclear reactor operating at temperatures corresponding to those required by the sulfur-iodine process. This LCA examines the environmental impact of the combined advanced nuclear and hydrogen generation plants and focuses on quantifying the emissions of carbon dioxide per kilogram of hydrogen produced. The results are presented in terms of global warming potential (GWP). The GWP of the system is 2500 g carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO 2 -eq) per kilogram of hydrogen produced. The GWP of this process is approximately one-sixth of that for hydrogen production by steam reforming of natural gas, and is comparable to producing hydrogen from wind- or hydro-electric conventional electrolysis. (author)

  4. Using Indigenist and Indigenous methodologies to connect to deeper understandings of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples' quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kite, Elaine; Davy, Carol

    2015-12-01

    The lack of a common description makes measuring the concept of quality of life (QoL) a challenge. Whether QoL incorporates broader social features or is attributed to health conditions, the diverse range of descriptions applied by various disciplines has resulted in a concept that is multidimensional and vague. The variety of theoretical conceptualisations of QoL confounds and confuses even the most astute. Measuring QoL in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations is even more challenging. Instruments commonly developed and used to measure QoL are often derived from research methodologies shaped by Western cultural perspectives. Often they are simply translated for use among culturally and linguistically diverse Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. This has implications for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations whose perceptions of health are derived from within their specific cultures, value systems and ways of knowing and being. Interconnections and relationships between themselves, their communities, their environment and the natural and spiritual worlds are complex. The way in which their QoL is currently measured indicates that very little attention is given to the diversity of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples' beliefs or the ways in which those beliefs shape or give structure and meaning to their health and their lives. The use of Indigenist or Indigenous methodologies in defining what Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples believe gives quality to their lives is imperative. These methodologies have the potential to increase the congruency between their perceptions of QoL and instruments to measure it.

  5. A methodology to incorporate life cycle analysis and the triple bottom line mechanism for sustainable management of industrial enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ling; Lin, Li

    2004-02-01

    Since 1970"s, the environmental protection movement has challenged industries to increase their investment in Environmentally Conscious Manufacturing (ECM) techniques and management tools. Social considerations for global citizens and their descendants also motivated the examination on the complex issues of sustainable development beyond the immediate economic impact. Consequently, industrial enterprises have started to understand sustainable development in considering the Triple Bottom Line (TBL): economic prosperity, environmental quality and social justice. For the management, however, a lack of systematic ECM methodologies hinders their effort in planning, evaluating, reporting and auditing of sustainability. To address this critical need, this research develops a framework of a sustainable management system by incorporating a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) of industrial operations with the TBL mechanism. A TBL metric system with seven sets of indices for the TBL elements and their complex relations is identified for the comprehensive evaluation of a company"s sustainability performance. Utilities of the TBL indices are estimated to represent the views of various stakeholders, including the company, investors, employees and the society at large. Costs of these indices are also captured to reflect the company"s effort in meeting the utilities. An optimization model is formulated to maximize the economic, environmental and social benefits by the company"s effort in developing sustainable strategies. To promote environmental and social consciousness, the methodology can significantly facilitate management decisions by its capabilities of including "non-business" values and external costs that the company has not contemplated before.

  6. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....

  7. Prediction of ultrasonic pulse velocity for enhanced peat bricks using adaptive neuro-fuzzy methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motamedi, Shervin; Roy, Chandrabhushan; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Hashim, Roslan; Petković, Dalibor; Song, Ki-Il

    2015-08-01

    Ultrasonic pulse velocity is affected by defects in material structure. This study applied soft computing techniques to predict the ultrasonic pulse velocity for various peats and cement content mixtures for several curing periods. First, this investigation constructed a process to simulate the ultrasonic pulse velocity with adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. Then, an ANFIS network with neurons was developed. The input and output layers consisted of four and one neurons, respectively. The four inputs were cement, peat, sand content (%) and curing period (days). The simulation results showed efficient performance of the proposed system. The ANFIS and experimental results were compared through the coefficient of determination and root-mean-square error. In conclusion, use of ANFIS network enhances prediction and generation of strength. The simulation results confirmed the effectiveness of the suggested strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Predicting the probability of slip in gait: methodology and distribution study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gragg, Jared; Yang, James

    2016-01-01

    The likelihood of a slip is related to the available and required friction for a certain activity, here gait. Classical slip and fall analysis presumed that a walking surface was safe if the difference between the mean available and required friction coefficients exceeded a certain threshold. Previous research was dedicated to reformulating the classical slip and fall theory to include the stochastic variation of the available and required friction when predicting the probability of slip in gait. However, when predicting the probability of a slip, previous researchers have either ignored the variation in the required friction or assumed the available and required friction to be normally distributed. Also, there are no published results that actually give the probability of slip for various combinations of required and available frictions. This study proposes a modification to the equation for predicting the probability of slip, reducing the previous equation from a double-integral to a more convenient single-integral form. Also, a simple numerical integration technique is provided to predict the probability of slip in gait: the trapezoidal method. The effect of the random variable distributions on the probability of slip is also studied. It is shown that both the required and available friction distributions cannot automatically be assumed as being normally distributed. The proposed methods allow for any combination of distributions for the available and required friction, and numerical results are compared to analytical solutions for an error analysis. The trapezoidal method is shown to be highly accurate and efficient. The probability of slip is also shown to be sensitive to the input distributions of the required and available friction. Lastly, a critical value for the probability of slip is proposed based on the number of steps taken by an average person in a single day.

  9. An analytical methodology to predict the coating characteristics of plasma-sprayed ceramic powders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varacalle, D.J. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Experimental and analytical studies have been conducted at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to investigate gas, particle, and coating dynamics in the plasma spray process. Nine experiments were conducted using a Taguchi statistical parametric approach. The thermal plasma produced by the commercial plasma spray torch and the related plasma/particle interaction were then numerically modeled from the cathode tip to varied standoff distances in the free plume for the nine experiments, which ranged in power from 28 to 43 kW. The flow and temperature fields in the plasma were solved using the governing conservation equations with suitable boundary conditions. This information was then used as boundary conditions to solve the plasma/particle interaction problem for the nine experiments. The particle dynamics (10- to 75-μm particles) for a yttria-stabilized zirconia powder were then simulated by computer. Particle morphology is discussed with respect to the changes in the process parameters. The predicted temperature and velocity of the zirconia particles were then used as initial conditions to a coating dynamics code. The code predicts the thickness and porosity of the zirconia coatings for the specific process parameters. The predicted coating characteristics exhibit reasonable correlation with the actual characteristics obtained from the Taguchi experimental studies. 12 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs

  10. One- and two-stage Arrhenius models for pharmaceutical shelf life prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Zhewen; Zhang, Lanju

    2015-01-01

    One of the most challenging aspects of the pharmaceutical development is the demonstration and estimation of chemical stability. It is imperative that pharmaceutical products be stable for two or more years. Long-term stability studies are required to support such shelf life claim at registration. However, during drug development to facilitate formulation and dosage form selection, an accelerated stability study with stressed storage condition is preferred to quickly obtain a good prediction of shelf life under ambient storage conditions. Such a prediction typically uses Arrhenius equation that describes relationship between degradation rate and temperature (and humidity). Existing methods usually rely on the assumption of normality of the errors. In addition, shelf life projection is usually based on confidence band of a regression line. However, the coverage probability of a method is often overlooked or under-reported. In this paper, we introduce two nonparametric bootstrap procedures for shelf life estimation based on accelerated stability testing, and compare them with a one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius prediction model. Our simulation results demonstrate that one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius method has significant lower coverage than nominal levels. Our bootstrap method gave better coverage and led to a shelf life prediction closer to that based on long-term stability data.

  11. Remaining useful life prediction of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance: Application to draught fans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhao-Qiang; Hu, Chang-Hua; Si, Xiao-Sheng; Zio, Enrico

    2018-02-01

    Current degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction studies share a common assumption that the degrading systems are not maintained or maintained perfectly (i.e., to an as-good-as new state). This paper concerns the issues of how to model the degradation process and predict the remaining useful life of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance activities, which can restore the health condition of a degrading system to any degradation level between as-good-as new and as-bad-as old. Toward this end, a nonlinear model driven by Wiener process is first proposed to characterize the degradation trajectory of the degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, where negative jumps are incorporated to quantify the influence of imperfect maintenance activities on the system's degradation. Then, the probability density function of the remaining useful life is derived analytically by a space-scale transformation, i.e., transforming the constructed degradation model with negative jumps crossing a constant threshold level to a Wiener process model crossing a random threshold level. To implement the proposed method, unknown parameters in the degradation model are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation method. Finally, the proposed degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction method are applied to a practical case of draught fans belonging to a kind of mechanical systems from steel mills. The results reveal that, for a degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, our proposed method can obtain more accurate remaining useful life predictions than those of the benchmark model in literature.

  12. Simple knowledge-based descriptors to predict protein-ligand interactions. Methodology and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissink, J. Willem M.; Verdonk, Marcel L.; Klebe, Gerhard

    2000-11-01

    A new type of shape descriptor is proposed to describe the spatial orientation for non-covalent interactions. It is built from simple, anisotropic Gaussian contributions that are parameterised by 10 adjustable values. The descriptors have been used to fit propensity distributions derived from scatter data stored in the IsoStar database. This database holds composite pictures of possible interaction geometries between a common central group and various interacting moieties, as extracted from small-molecule crystal structures. These distributions can be related to probabilities for the occurrence of certain interaction geometries among different functional groups. A fitting procedure is described that generates the descriptors in a fully automated way. For this purpose, we apply a similarity index that is tailored to the problem, the Split Hodgkin Index. It accounts for the similarity in regions of either high or low propensity in a separate way. Although dependent on the division into these two subregions, the index is robust and performs better than the regular Hodgkin index. The reliability and coverage of the fitted descriptors was assessed using SuperStar. SuperStar usually operates on the raw IsoStar data to calculate propensity distributions, e.g., for a binding site in a protein. For our purpose we modified the code to have it operate on our descriptors instead. This resulted in a substantial reduction in calculation time (factor of five to eight) compared to the original implementation. A validation procedure was performed on a set of 130 protein-ligand complexes, using four representative interacting probes to map the properties of the various binding sites: ammonium nitrogen, alcohol oxygen, carbonyl oxygen, and methyl carbon. The predicted `hot spots' for the binding of these probes were compared to the actual arrangement of ligand atoms in experimentally determined protein-ligand complexes. Results indicate that the version of SuperStar that applies to

  13. Considering supply and demand of electric energy in life cycle assessments - a review of current methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehberger, M.; Hiete, M.

    2015-01-01

    A stable power grid requires a balance between electricity supply and demand. To compensate for changes in the demand the network operator puts on or takes off power plants from the net. Peak load plants operate only at times of high electricity demand. As levels for air pollutants emissions are typically lower for peak load plants for reasons of cost-effectiveness, one could argue that a unit of electric energy consumed during peak load has always been associated with a higher environmental impact than at other times. Furthermore, renewable energy technologies, smart approaches for improving the matching between electricity consumption and supply and new products such as electric vehicles or net zero emission buildings gain in importance. In life cycle assessment (LCA) environmental impacts associated with the production and possibly transmission of electricity are most often assessed based on temporally averaged national electricity mixes as electricity flows cannot be traced back to their origin. Neither fluctuations in the supply structure nor the composition of energy supply at a certain moment or regional differences are accounted for. A literature review of approaches for handling electricity in LCA is carried out to compare strengths and weaknesses of the approaches. A better understanding and knowledge about the source of electricity at a given time and place might be valuable information for further reducing environmental impacts, e.g. by shifting electricity consumption to times with ample supply of renewables. Integrating such information into LCA will allow a fairer assessment of a variety of new products which accept a lower energy efficiency to achieve a better integration of renewables into the grid. (authors)

  14. Forecasting method for global radiation time series without training phase: Comparison with other well-known prediction methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Motte, Fabrice; Fouilloy, Alexis; Notton, Gilles; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure

    2017-01-01

    Integration of unpredictable renewable energy sources into electrical networks intensifies the complexity of the grid management due to their intermittent and unforeseeable nature. Because of the strong increase of solar power generation the prediction of solar yields becomes more and more important. Electrical operators need an estimation of the future production. For nowcasting and short term forecasting, the usual technics based on machine learning need large historical data sets of good quality during the training phase of predictors. However data are not always available and induce an advanced maintenance of meteorological stations, making the method inapplicable for poor instrumented or isolated sites. In this work, we propose intuitive methodologies based on the Kalman filter use (also known as linear quadratic estimation), able to predict a global radiation time series without the need of historical data. The accuracy of these methods is compared to other classical data driven methods, for different horizons of prediction and time steps. The proposed approach shows interesting capabilities allowing to improve quasi-systematically the prediction. For one to 10 h horizons Kalman model performances are competitive in comparison to more sophisticated models such as ANN which require both consistent historical data sets and computational resources. - Highlights: • Solar radiation forecasting with time series formalism. • Trainless approach compared to machine learning methods. • Very simple method dedicated to solar irradiation forecasting with high accuracy.

  15. Methodologic Guide for Evaluating Clinical Performance and Effect of Artificial Intelligence Technology for Medical Diagnosis and Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Seong Ho; Han, Kyunghwa

    2018-03-01

    The use of artificial intelligence in medicine is currently an issue of great interest, especially with regard to the diagnostic or predictive analysis of medical images. Adoption of an artificial intelligence tool in clinical practice requires careful confirmation of its clinical utility. Herein, the authors explain key methodology points involved in a clinical evaluation of artificial intelligence technology for use in medicine, especially high-dimensional or overparameterized diagnostic or predictive models in which artificial deep neural networks are used, mainly from the standpoints of clinical epidemiology and biostatistics. First, statistical methods for assessing the discrimination and calibration performances of a diagnostic or predictive model are summarized. Next, the effects of disease manifestation spectrum and disease prevalence on the performance results are explained, followed by a discussion of the difference between evaluating the performance with use of internal and external datasets, the importance of using an adequate external dataset obtained from a well-defined clinical cohort to avoid overestimating the clinical performance as a result of overfitting in high-dimensional or overparameterized classification model and spectrum bias, and the essentials for achieving a more robust clinical evaluation. Finally, the authors review the role of clinical trials and observational outcome studies for ultimate clinical verification of diagnostic or predictive artificial intelligence tools through patient outcomes, beyond performance metrics, and how to design such studies. © RSNA, 2018.

  16. Probabilistic methods for condition assessment and life prediction of concrete structures in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, B.R.; Mori, Yasuhiro

    1993-01-01

    A probability-based methodology is being developed in support of the NRC Structural Aging Program to assist in evaluating the reliability of existing concrete structures in nuclear power plants under potential future operating loads and extreme evironmental and accidental events. The methodology includes models to predict structural deterioration due to environmental stressors, a database to support the use of these models, and methods for analyzing time-dependent reliability of concrete structural components subjected to stochastic loads. The methodology can be used to support a plant license extension application by providing evidence that safety-related concrete structures in their current (service) condition are able to withstand future extreme events with a level of reliability sufficient for public health and safety. (orig.)

  17. Earthquake Forecasting Methodology Catalogue - A collection and comparison of the state-of-the-art in earthquake forecasting and prediction methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake forecasting and prediction has been one of the key struggles of modern geosciences for the last few decades. A large number of approaches for various time periods have been developed for different locations around the world. A categorization and review of more than 20 of new and old methods was undertaken to develop a state-of-the-art catalogue in forecasting algorithms and methodologies. The different methods have been categorised into time-independent, time-dependent and hybrid methods, from which the last group represents methods where additional data than just historical earthquake statistics have been used. It is necessary to categorize in such a way between pure statistical approaches where historical earthquake data represents the only direct data source and also between algorithms which incorporate further information e.g. spatial data of fault distributions or which incorporate physical models like static triggering to indicate future earthquakes. Furthermore, the location of application has been taken into account to identify methods which can be applied e.g. in active tectonic regions like California or in less active continental regions. In general, most of the methods cover well-known high-seismicity regions like Italy, Japan or California. Many more elements have been reviewed, including the application of established theories and methods e.g. for the determination of the completeness magnitude or whether the modified Omori law was used or not. Target temporal scales are identified as well as the publication history. All these different aspects have been reviewed and catalogued to provide an easy-to-use tool for the development of earthquake forecasting algorithms and to get an overview in the state-of-the-art.

  18. Ratcheting and low cycle fatigue behavior of SA333 steel and their life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paul, Surajit Kumar; Sivaprasad, S.; Dhar, S.; Tarafder, S.

    2010-01-01

    Ratcheting and low cycle fatigue (LCF) experiments have been conducted at 25 o C temperature in laboratory environment under different loading conditions. SA333 steel exhibits cyclic hardening throughout its life during LCF. It is found that ratcheting strain increases with both increasing mean stress and stress amplitude. It has also been noticed that plastic strain amplitude and plastic strain energy decrease with increase in mean stress at constant stress amplitude. Ratcheting and LCF life in the range of 10 2 -10 5 cycles have been predicted with the help of a mean stress-based fatigue lifing equation.

  19. Fatigue life prediction for pressure cast transmission housings using the strain life approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varenkamp, M. [ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Abteilung TB-1, 88038 Friedrichshafen (Germany); Schoen, M.

    2011-04-15

    Pressure cast transmission housings are structural components of complex shape, which have to fulfil, amongst others, the requirements of structural durability, saving as much weight as possible. The numerical proof of structural durability is carried out using the local strain approach. One challenge is to consider the inhomogeneous material properties, as a consequence of the casting process. It shows, that local porosity is the determining factor for the components fatigue life. Coming from the experiences made using the basic version of the local strain approach the methods used to successfully adjust the procedure for calculating pressure cast components under constant and variable amplitudes are described. (Copyright copyright 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  20. A core-monitoring based methodology for predictions of graphite weight loss in AGR moderator bricks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNally, K., E-mail: kevin.mcnally@hsl.gsi.gov.uk [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton, Derbyshire SK17 9JN (United Kingdom); Warren, N. [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton, Derbyshire SK17 9JN (United Kingdom); Fahad, M.; Hall, G.; Marsden, B.J. [Nuclear Graphite Research Group, School of MACE, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom)

    2017-04-01

    Highlights: • A statistically-based methodology for estimating graphite density is presented. • Graphite shrinkage is accounted for using a finite element model. • Differences in weight loss forecasts were found when compared to the existing model. - Abstract: Physically based models, resolved using the finite element (FE) method are often used to model changes in dimensions and the associated stress fields of graphite moderator bricks within a reactor. These models require inputs that describe the loading conditions (temperature, fluence and weight loss ‘field variables’), and coded relationships describing the behaviour of graphite under these conditions. The weight loss field variables are calculated using a reactor chemistry/physics code FEAT DIFFUSE. In this work the authors consider an alternative data source of weight loss: that from a longitudinal dataset of density measurements made on small samples trepanned from operating reactors during statutory outages. A nonlinear mixed-effect model is presented for modelling the age and depth-related trends in density. A correction that accounts for irradiation-induced dimensional changes (axial and radial shrinkage) is subsequently applied. The authors compare weight loss forecasts made using FEAT DIFFUSE with those based on an alternative statistical model for a layer four moderator brick for the Hinkley Point B, Reactor 3. The authors compare the two approaches for the weight loss distribution through the brick with a particular focus on the interstitial keyway, and for the average (over the volume of the brick) weight loss.

  1. A residual life prediction model based on the generalized σ -N curved surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongwen AN

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to investigate change rule of the residual life of structure under random repeated load, firstly, starting from the statistic meaning of random repeated load, the joint probability density function of maximum stress and minimum stress is derived based on the characteristics of order statistic (maximum order statistic and minimum order statistic; then, based on the equation of generalized σ -N curved surface, considering the influence of load cycles number on fatigue life, a relationship among minimum stress, maximum stress and residual life, that is the σmin(n- σmax(n-Nr(n curved surface model, is established; finally, the validity of the proposed model is demonstrated by a practical case. The result shows that the proposed model can reflect the influence of maximum stress and minimum stress on residual life of structure under random repeated load, which can provide a theoretical basis for life prediction and reliability assessment of structure.

  2. Methodology for predicting market transformation due to implementation of energy efficiency standards and labels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahlia, T.M.I.

    2004-01-01

    There are many papers that have been published on energy efficiency standards and labels. However, a very limited number of articles on the subject have discussed the transformation of appliance energy efficiency in the market after the programs are implemented. This paper is an attempt to investigate the market transformation due to implementation of minimum energy efficiency standards and energy labels. Even though the paper only investigates room air conditioners as a case study, the method is also applicable for predicting market transformation for other household electrical appliances

  3. Methodology to predict the initiation of multiple transverse fractures from horizontal wellbores

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crosby, D. G.; Yang, Z.; Rahman, S. S. [Univ. of New South Wales (Australia)

    2001-10-01

    The criterion based on Drucker and Prager which is designed to predict the pressure required to initiate secondary multiple transverse fractures in close proximity to primary fractures is discussed. Results based on this criterion compare favorably with those measured during a series of laboratory-scale hydraulic fracture interaction tests. It is concluded that the multiple fracture criterion and laboratory results demonstrate that transversely fractured horizontal wellbores have a limited capacity to resist the initiation of multiple fractures from adjacent perforations, or intersecting induced and natural fractures. 23 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs.

  4. Predictive modelling for shelf life determination of nutricereal based fermented baby food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasane, Prasad; Jha, Alok; Sharma, Nitya

    2015-08-01

    A shelf life model based on storage temperatures was developed for a nutricereal based fermented baby food formulation. The formulated baby food samples were packaged and stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C for a test storage period of 180 days. A shelf life study was conducted using consumer and semi-trained panels, along with chemical analysis (moisture and acidity). The chemical parameters (moisture and titratable acidity) were found inadequate in determining the shelf life of the formulated product. Weibull hazard analysis was used to determine the shelf life of the product based on sensory evaluation. Considering 25 and 50 % rejection probability, the shelf life of the baby food formulation was predicted to be 98 and 322 days, 84 and 271 days, 71 and 221 days and 58 and 171 days for the samples stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C, respectively. A shelf life equation was proposed using the rejection times obtained from the consumer study. Finally, the formulated baby food samples were subjected to microbial analysis for the predicted shelf life period and were found microbiologically safe for consumption during the storage period of 360 days.

  5. A computational approach for thermomechanical fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnasamy, Ram-Kumar; Seifert, Thomas; Siegele, Dieter [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    In this paper a computational approach for fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes is presented and applied to a dissimilar weld between tubes made of the nickel base alloy Alloy617 tube and the 12% chromium steel VM12. The approach comprises the calculation of the residual stresses in the welded tubes with a multi-pass dissimilar welding simulation, the relaxation of the residual stresses in a post weld heat treatment (PWHT) simulation and the fatigue life prediction using the remaining residual stresses as initial condition. A cyclic fiscoplasticity model is used to calculate the transient stresses and strains under thermocyclic service loadings. The fatigue life is predicted with a damage parameter which is based on fracture mechanics. The adjustable parameters of the model are determined based on LCF and TMF experiments. The simulations show, that the residual stresses that remain after PWHT further relax in the first loading cycles. The predicted fatigue lives depend on the residual stresses and, thus, on the choice of the loading cycle in which the damage parameter is evaluated. It the first loading cycle, where residual stresses are still present, is considered, lower fatigue lives are predicted compared to predictions considering loading cycles with relaxed residual stresses. (orig.)

  6. Prediction methodologies for target scene generation in the aerothermal targets analysis program (ATAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Douglas J.; Torres, Manuel; Dougherty, Catherine; Rajendran, Natesan; Thompson, Rhoe A.

    2003-09-01

    The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Aerothermal Targets Analysis Program (ATAP) is a user-friendly, engineering-level computational tool that features integrated aerodynamics, six-degree-of-freedom (6-DoF) trajectory/motion, convective and radiative heat transfer, and thermal/material response to provide an optimal blend of accuracy and speed for design and analysis applications. ATAP is sponsored by the Kinetic Kill Vehicle Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulator (KHILS) facility at Eglin AFB, where it is used with the CHAMP (Composite Hardbody and Missile Plume) technique for rapid infrared (IR) signature and imagery predictions. ATAP capabilities include an integrated 1-D conduction model for up to 5 in-depth material layers (with options for gaps/voids with radiative heat transfer), fin modeling, several surface ablation modeling options, a materials library with over 250 materials, options for user-defined materials, selectable/definable atmosphere and earth models, multiple trajectory options, and an array of aerodynamic prediction methods. All major code modeling features have been validated with ground-test data from wind tunnels, shock tubes, and ballistics ranges, and flight-test data for both U.S. and foreign strategic and theater systems. Numerous applications include the design and analysis of interceptors, booster and shroud configurations, window environments, tactical missiles, and reentry vehicles.

  7. Evaluation of creep-fatigue life prediction methods for low-carbon/nitrogen-added SUS316

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yukio

    1998-01-01

    Low-carbon/medium nitrogen 316 stainless steel called 316FR is a principal candidate for the high-temperature structural materials of a demonstration fast reactor plant. Because creep-fatigue damage is a dominant failure mechanism of the high-temperature materials subjected to thermal cycles, it is important to establish a reliable creep-fatigue life prediction method for this steel. Long-term creep tests and strain-controlled creep-fatigue tests have been conducted at various conditions for two different heats of the steel. In the constant load creep tests, both materials showed similar creep rupture strength but different ductility. The material with lower ductility exhibited shorter life under creep-fatigue loading conditions and correlation of creep-fatigue life with rupture ductility, rather than rupture strength, was made clear. Two kinds of creep-fatigue life prediction methods, i.e. time fraction rule and ductility exhaustion method were applied to predict the creep-fatigue life. Accurate description of stress relaxation behavior was achieved by an addition of 'viscous' strain to conventional creep strain and only the latter of which was assumed to contribute to creep damage in the application of ductility exhaustion method. The current version of the ductility exhaustion method was found to have very good accuracy in creep-fatigue life prediction, while the time fraction rule overpredicted creep-fatigue life as large as a factor of 30. To make a reliable estimation of the creep damage in actual components, use of ductility exhaustion method is strongly recommended. (author)

  8. Overview of statistical methods, models and analysis for predicting equipment end of life

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    Utility equipment can be operated and maintained for many years following installation. However, as the equipment ages, utility operators must decide whether to extend the service life or replace the equipment. Condition assessment modelling is used by many utilities to determine the condition of equipment and to prioritize the maintenance or repair. Several factors are weighted and combined in assessment modelling, which gives a single index number to rate the equipment. There is speculation that this index alone may not be adequate for a business case to rework or replace an asset because it only ranks an asset into a particular category. For that reason, a new methodology was developed to determine the economic end of life of an asset. This paper described the different statistical methods available and their use in determining the remaining service life of electrical equipment. A newly developed Excel-based demonstration computer tool is also an integral part of the deliverables of this project.

  9. Fatigue properties of JIS H3300 C1220 copper for strain life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harun, Muhammad Faiz; Mohammad, Roslina

    2018-05-01

    The existing methods for estimating strain life parameters are dependent on the material's monotonic tensile properties. However, a few of these methods yield quite complicated expressions for calculating fatigue parameters, and are specific to certain groups of materials only. The Universal Slopes method, Modified Universal Slopes method, Uniform Material Law, the Hardness method, and Medians method are a few existing methods for predicting strain-life fatigue based on monotonic tensile material properties and hardness of material. In the present study, nine methods for estimating fatigue life and properties are applied on JIS H3300 C1220 copper to determine the best methods for strain life estimation of this ductile material. Experimental strain-life curves are compared to estimations obtained using each method. Muralidharan-Manson's Modified Universal Slopes method and Bäumel-Seeger's method for unalloyed and low-alloy steels are found to yield batter accuracy in estimating fatigue life with a deviation of less than 25%. However, the prediction of both methods only yield much better accuracy for a cycle of less than 1000 or for strain amplitudes of more than 1% and less than 6%. Manson's Original Universal Slopes method and Ong's Modified Four-Point Correlation method are found to predict the strain-life fatigue of copper with better accuracy for a high number of cycles of strain amplitudes of less than 1%. The differences between mechanical behavior during monotonic and cyclic loading and the complexity in deciding the coefficient in an equation are probably the reason for the lack of a reliable method for estimating fatigue behavior using the monotonic properties of a group of materials. It is therefore suggested that a differential approach and new expressions be developed to estimate the strain-life fatigue parameters for ductile materials such as copper.

  10. Multi-Axial Damage Index and Accumulation Model for Predicting Fatigue Life of CMC Materials, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The fatigue life of CMCs must be well characterized for the safe and reliable use of these materials as integrated TPS components. Existing fatigue life prediction...

  11. Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

    2017-12-22

    Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting

  12. Predictive methodology to address PWSCC of Alloy 600 locations in PWRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, G.V.

    1992-01-01

    Contributing factors to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) are susceptible microstructure, temperature, and residual and applied stresses. In order to predict PWSCC of Inconel 600 components in PWR type reactors, a number of steps were taken. All Inconel 600 components were located, fabrication history, weld procedures and material properties were identified. Service temperatures and approximate stresses were determined. Precise service stress evaluations of Inconel 600 locations by Finite Element and other analytical evaluations were made. Using data analysis, relative PWSCC susceptibility evaluations of Inconel 600 locations were made on the basis of the Westinghouse RSI model. Finally, a prioritized inspection plan for Inconel 600 locations was developed and recommendations provided. 11 figs., 2 tabs

  13. Improved Methodology of Weather Window Prediction for Offshore Operations Based on Probabilities of Operation Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    The offshore wind industry is building and planning new wind farms further offshore due to increasing demand on sustainable energy production and already occupied prime resource locations closer to shore. Costs of operation and maintenance, transport and installation of offshore wind turbines...... already contribute significantly to the cost of produced electricity and will continue to increase, due to moving further offshore, if the current techniques of predicting offshore wind farm accessibility are to stay the same. The majority of offshore operations are carried out by specialized ships...... that must be hired for the duration of the operation. Therefore, offshore wind farm accessibility and costs of offshore activities are primarily driven by the expected number of operational hours offshore and waiting times for weather windows, suitable for offshore operations. Having more reliable weather...

  14. Prediction of inelastic behavior and creep-fatigue life of perforated plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Setoguchi, Katsuya; Nakano, Shohki; Nomura, Shinichi

    1991-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local stress-strain behavior of perforated plates in plastic and creep regime which are proposed by the authors are applied to the inelastic analysis and creep-fatigue life prediction of perforated cylinder subjected to cyclic thermal stress. Stress-strain behavior of perforated cylinder is analyzed by modeling the perforated portion to cylinder with equivalent-solid-plate properties. Creep-fatigue lives at around a hole of perforated plates are predicted by using the local stress-strain behavior and are compared with experimentally observed lives. (author)

  15. Predicting activities of daily living for cancer patients using an ontology-guided machine learning methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Hua; Mobahi, Hedyeh; Irvin, Katherine; Avramovic, Sanja; Wojtusiak, Janusz

    2017-09-16

    Bio-ontologies are becoming increasingly important in knowledge representation and in the machine learning (ML) fields. This paper presents a ML approach that incorporates bio-ontologies and its application to the SEER-MHOS dataset to discover patterns of patient characteristics that impact the ability to perform activities of daily living (ADLs). Bio-ontologies are used to provide computable knowledge for ML methods to "understand" biomedical data. This retrospective study included 723 cancer patients from the SEER-MHOS dataset. Two ML methods were applied to create predictive models for ADL disabilities for the first year after a patient's cancer diagnosis. The first method is a standard rule learning algorithm; the second is that same algorithm additionally equipped with methods for reasoning with ontologies. The models showed that a patient's race, ethnicity, smoking preference, treatment plan and tumor characteristics including histology, staging, cancer site, and morphology were predictors for ADL performance levels one year after cancer diagnosis. The ontology-guided ML method was more accurate at predicting ADL performance levels (P ontologies. This study demonstrated that bio-ontologies can be harnessed to provide medical knowledge for ML algorithms. The presented method demonstrates that encoding specific types of hierarchical relationships to guide rule learning is possible, and can be extended to other types of semantic relationships present in biomedical ontologies. The ontology-guided ML method achieved better performance than the method without ontologies. The presented method can also be used to promote the effectiveness and efficiency of ML in healthcare, in which use of background knowledge and consistency with existing clinical expertise is critical.

  16. Semiempirical Methodology for Estimating the Service Life of Concrete Deck Panels Strengthened with Fiber-Reinforced Polymer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eon-Kyoung Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Deterioration of concrete bridge decks affects their durability, safety, and function. It is therefore necessary to conduct structural rehabilitation of damaged concrete decks by strengthening them with fiber-reinforced polymer. Of the recent studies on the strengthened structures, most have focused on static behavior; only a few studies have investigated fatigue behavior. Accurate analysis of fatigue in concrete deck performance requires a more realistic simulated moving load. This study developed a theoretical live-load model to reflect the effect of moving vehicle loads, based on a statistical approach to the measurement of real traffic loads over various time periods in Korea. It assessed the fatigue life and strengthening effect of bridge decks strengthened with either carbon fiber sheets or grid carbon fiber polymer plastic using probabilistic and reliability analyses. It used extrapolations and simulations to derive maximum load effects for time periods ranging from 1 day to 75 years. Limited fatigue tests were conducted and probabilistic and reliability analyses were carried out on the strengthened concrete bridge deck specimens to predict the extended fatigue life. Analysis results indicated that strengthened concrete decks provide sufficient resistance against increasing truck loads during the service life of a bridge.

  17. Teachers' assessments of children aged eight predict life satisfaction in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honkanen, Meri; Meri, Honkanen; Hurtig, Tuula; Tuula, Hurtig; Taanila, Anja; Anja, Taanila; Moilanen, Irma; Irma, Moilanen; Koponen, Hannu; Hannu, Koponen; Mäki, Pirjo; Pirjo, Mäki; Veijola, Juha; Juha, Veijola; Puustjärvi, Anita; Anita, Puustjärvi; Ebeling, Hanna; Hanna, Ebeling; Koivumaa-Honkanen, Heli; Heli, Koivumaa-Honkanen

    2011-09-01

    The objective was to investigate how teachers' assessments of children predict life satisfaction in adolescence. This is a prospective cohort study on the population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (n = 8,959). Information was gathered from parents, teachers and adolescents using questionnaires at the age of 7, 8 and 15. Response rates were 80-90%. Emotional and behavioural problems were assessed with Rutter Children's Behavioural Questionnaires for teachers (RB2) and parents (RA2) during the first grade at age 8. At adolescence, self-reported life satisfaction was measured with a question including five response alternatives. According to teachers' assessments, 13.9% of the children had high emotional or behavioural problems (RB2 ≥9). These assessments predicted life dissatisfaction in adolescence (OR(crude) = 1.77; 95% CI 1.43-2.20) in several models including also health behaviour and use of psychotropic medicine. However, introducing all the significant variables in the same model, RB2 lost its significance (OR = 1.28; 0.96-1.70), but good school achievement assessed by teachers was still a significant predictor. Life satisfaction in adolescence was associated with a variety of favourable concurrent factors. In conclusion teachers' assessments of children during the first school year predicted life satisfaction in adolescence. In mental health promotion, teachers' early assessments should be utilized for the benefit of children.

  18. The Role of Life Satisfaction and Parenting Styles in Predicting Delinquent Behaviors among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onder, Fulya Cenkseven; Yilmaz, Yasin

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine whether the parenting styles and life satisfaction predict delinquent behaviors frequently or not. Firstly the data were collected from 471 girls and 410 boys, a total of 881 high school students. Then the research was carried out with 502 students showing low (n = 262, 52.2%) and high level of delinquent…

  19. The Roles of Life Satisfaction, Teaching Efficacy, and Self-Esteem in Predicting Teachers' Job Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çevik, Gülsen Büyüksahin

    2017-01-01

    The current research aims to find out the extent to which high school teachers' life satisfaction, teaching efficacy, and self-esteem predict their job satisfaction. Research participants included a total of 358 teachers (age = 38.82; Ss = 6.73; range, 22-58), 222 males (62%) and 136 females (38%), employed in 21 public high schools in the city…

  20. Numerical Analysis of Rolling Contact Fatigue Crack Initiation and Fatigue Life Prediction of the Railway Crossing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

    2015-01-01

    The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact.

  1. Fatigue life prediction in composites using progressive damage modelling under block and spectrum loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Passipoularidis, Vaggelis; Philippidis, T.P.; Brøndsted, Povl

    2010-01-01

    series can be simulated. The predictions are validated against fatigue life data both from repeated block tests at a single stress ratio as well as against spectral fatigue using the WISPER, WISPERX and NEW WISPER load sequences on a Glass/Epoxy multidirectional laminate typical of a Wind Turbine Rotor...

  2. Thermo-mechanical fatigue behaviour and life prediction of C-1023 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Mechanical strain-cycles to failure curves for 890-1055 ºC temperature range. ... could be ascribed to creep strain accumulation at high temperatures coinciding ... It is common in engineering applications to rely on life prediction models based ...

  3. The Level of Quality of Work Life to Predict Work Alienation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdem, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    The current research aims to determine the level of elementary school teachers' quality of work life (QWL) to predict work alienation. The study was designed using the relational survey model. The research population consisted of 1096 teachers employed at 25 elementary schools within the city of Van in the academic year 2010- 2011, and 346…

  4. Study on the methodology for predicting and preventing errors to improve reliability of maintenance task in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanafusa, Hidemitsu; Iwaki, Toshio; Embrey, D.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this study was to develop and effective methodology for predicting and preventing errors in nuclear power plant maintenance tasks. A method was established by which chief maintenance personnel can predict and reduce errors when reviewing the maintenance procedures and while referring to maintenance supporting systems and methods in other industries including aviation and chemical plant industries. The method involves the following seven steps: 1. Identification of maintenance tasks. 2. Specification of important tasks affecting safety. 3. Assessment of human errors occurring during important tasks. 4. Identification of Performance Degrading Factors. 5. Dividing important tasks into sub-tasks. 6. Extraction of errors using Predictive Human Error Analysis (PHEA). 7. Development of strategies for reducing errors and for recovering from errors. By way of a trial, this method was applied to the pump maintenance procedure in nuclear power plants. This method is believed to be capable of identifying the expected errors in important tasks and supporting the development of error reduction measures. By applying this method, the number of accidents resulting form human errors during maintenance can be reduced. Moreover, the maintenance support base using computers was developed. (author)

  5. Life Prediction of Large Lithium-Ion Battery Packs with Active and Passive Balancing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Ying [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Smith, Kandler A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zane, Regan [Utah State University; Anderson, Dyche [Ford Motor Company

    2017-07-03

    Lithium-ion battery packs take a major part of large-scale stationary energy storage systems. One challenge in reducing battery pack cost is to reduce pack size without compromising pack service performance and lifespan. Prognostic life model can be a powerful tool to handle the state of health (SOH) estimate and enable active life balancing strategy to reduce cell imbalance and extend pack life. This work proposed a life model using both empirical and physical-based approaches. The life model described the compounding effect of different degradations on the entire cell with an empirical model. Then its lower-level submodels considered the complex physical links between testing statistics (state of charge level, C-rate level, duty cycles, etc.) and the degradation reaction rates with respect to specific aging mechanisms. The hybrid approach made the life model generic, robust and stable regardless of battery chemistry and application usage. The model was validated with a custom pack with both passive and active balancing systems implemented, which created four different aging paths in the pack. The life model successfully captured the aging trajectories of all four paths. The life model prediction errors on capacity fade and resistance growth were within +/-3% and +/-5% of the experiment measurements.

  6. A method for predicting the fatigue life of pre-corroded 2024-T3 aluminum from breaking load tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruenberg, Karl Martin

    on breaking load data were generally shorter than the experimental lives by an average of 20%. The life prediction methodology developed from this investigation is a very valuable tool for the purpose of assessing material substitution for aircraft designers, alloy differentiation for manufacturers, or inspection intervals and aircraft retirement schedules for aircraft in service.

  7. Functional Independence in Late-Life: Maintaining Physical Functioning in Older Adulthood Predicts Daily Life Function after Age 80.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Leslie; Leng, Xiaoyan; La Monte, Michael J; Tindle, Hilary A; Cochrane, Barbara B; Shumaker, Sally A

    2016-03-01

    We examined physical functioning (PF) trajectories (maintaining, slowly declining, and rapidly declining) spanning 15 years in older women aged 65-80 and protective factors that predicted better current levels and less decline in functional independence outcomes after age 80. Women's Health Initiative extension participants who met criteria (enrolled in either the clinical trial or observational study cohort, >80 years at the data release cutoff, PF survey data from initial enrollment to age 80, and functional independence survey data after age 80) were included in these analyses (mean [SD] age = 84.0 [1.4] years; N = 10,478). PF was measured with the SF-36 (mean = 4.9 occasions). Functional independence was measured by self-reported level of dependence in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADLs and IADLs) (mean = 3.4 and 3.3 occasions). Maintaining consistent PF in older adulthood extends functional independence in ADL and IADL in late-life. Protective factors shared by ADL and IADL include maintaining PF over time, self-reported excellent or very good health, no history of hip fracture after age 55, and no history of cardiovascular disease. Better IADL function is uniquely predicted by a body mass index less than 25 and no depression. Less ADL and IADL decline is predicted by better self-reported health, and less IADL decline is uniquely predicted by having no history of hip fracture after age 55. Maintaining or improving PF and preventing injury and disease in older adulthood (ages 65-80) has far-reaching implications for improving late-life (after age 80) functional independence. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Predicting life satisfaction in Angolan elderly: The moderating effect of gender

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A considerable amount of research has been done to explain life satisfaction in the elderly, and there is growing empirical evidence on the best predictors of life satisfaction. When studying elderly's lifesatisfaction and its predictors, gender differences have been found in several studies, including significant interactions with widowhood, for example. In this context, the present study aims were: (1 to test for the gender invariance in a life satisfaction measure; (2 to predict life satisfaction using several variables related to the aging process; and (3 to test the potential moderator effects due to gender in this prediction. Participants were 1003 Angolan elderly. Several multi-group (men vs. women MIMIC structural models were tested. First, results showed that there is gender invariance for the measurement of life satisfaction. Second, results found no moderation effects on key variables of the aging process. In other words, the estimated effects of psychosocial variables on life satisfaction remain the same for both genders. The discussion relates these results to the existing literature and posits the contributions of the study.

  9. Life prediction of OLED for constant-stress accelerated degradation tests using luminance decaying model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Jianping, E-mail: jpzhanglzu@163.com [College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090 (China); Li, Wenbin [College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090 (China); Cheng, Guoliang; Chen, Xiao [Shanghai Tianyi Electric Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201611 (China); Wu, Helen [School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Western Sydney, Sydney 2751 (Australia); Herman Shen, M.-H. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, The Ohio State University, OH 43210 (United States)

    2014-10-15

    In order to acquire the life information of organic light emitting diode (OLED), three groups of constant stress accelerated degradation tests are performed to obtain the luminance decaying data of samples under the condition that the luminance and the current are respectively selected as the indicator of performance degradation and the test stress. Weibull function is applied to describe the relationship between luminance decaying and time, least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate the shape parameter and scale parameter, and the life prediction of OLED is achieved. The numerical results indicate that the accelerated degradation test and the luminance decaying model reveal the luminance decaying law of OLED. The luminance decaying formula fits the test data very well, and the average error of fitting value compared with the test data is small. Furthermore, the accuracy of the OLED life predicted by luminance decaying model is high, which enable rapid estimation of OLED life and provide significant guidelines to help engineers make decisions in design and manufacturing strategy from the aspect of reliability life. - Highlights: • We gain luminance decaying data by accelerated degradation tests on OLED. • The luminance decaying model objectively reveals the decaying law of OLED luminance. • The least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate Weibull parameters. • The plan designed for accelerated degradation tests proves to be feasible. • The accuracy of the OLED life and the luminance decaying fitting formula is high.

  10. Life-Space Predicts Health Care Utilization in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Richard E; Williams, Courtney P; Sawyer, Patricia; Lo, Alexander X; Connelly, Kay; Nassel, Ariann; Brown, Cynthia J

    2017-09-01

    To determine whether decline in life-space mobility predicts increased health care utilization among community-dwelling older adults. Health care utilization (number of emergency department [ED] visits and hospitalizations) was self-reported during monthly interviews among 419 community-dwelling African American and non-Hispanic White adults aged 75 years and older in The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging II. Life-space was measured using the UAB Life-Space Assessment. Generalized estimating equations were used to examine associations of life-space at the beginning of each interval with health care utilization over the 1-month interval. Overall, 400 participants were followed for 36 months. A 10-point decrease in life-space was associated with 14% increased odds of an ED visit and/or hospitalization over the next month, adjusting for demographics, transportation difficulty, comorbidity, and having a doctor visit in the last month. Life-space is a practical alternative in predicting future health care utilization to performance-based measures, which can be difficult to incorporate into clinical or public health practice.

  11. Life prediction of OLED for constant-stress accelerated degradation tests using luminance decaying model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jianping; Li, Wenbin; Cheng, Guoliang; Chen, Xiao; Wu, Helen; Herman Shen, M.-H.

    2014-01-01

    In order to acquire the life information of organic light emitting diode (OLED), three groups of constant stress accelerated degradation tests are performed to obtain the luminance decaying data of samples under the condition that the luminance and the current are respectively selected as the indicator of performance degradation and the test stress. Weibull function is applied to describe the relationship between luminance decaying and time, least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate the shape parameter and scale parameter, and the life prediction of OLED is achieved. The numerical results indicate that the accelerated degradation test and the luminance decaying model reveal the luminance decaying law of OLED. The luminance decaying formula fits the test data very well, and the average error of fitting value compared with the test data is small. Furthermore, the accuracy of the OLED life predicted by luminance decaying model is high, which enable rapid estimation of OLED life and provide significant guidelines to help engineers make decisions in design and manufacturing strategy from the aspect of reliability life. - Highlights: • We gain luminance decaying data by accelerated degradation tests on OLED. • The luminance decaying model objectively reveals the decaying law of OLED luminance. • The least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate Weibull parameters. • The plan designed for accelerated degradation tests proves to be feasible. • The accuracy of the OLED life and the luminance decaying fitting formula is high

  12. Distance saturation product predicts health-related quality of life among sarcoidosis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbonnais, Julie M; Malaisamy, Subramanian; Dalal, Bhavinkumar D; Samarakoon, Priyan C; Parikh, Swapna R; Samavati, Lobelia

    2012-06-13

    Sarcoidosis is a chronic disease with different phenotypic manifestations. Health-related quality of life is an important aspect in sarcoidosis, yet difficult to measure. The objective of this study was to identify clinical markers predictive of poor quality of life in sarcoidosis patients that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention. We assessed the quality of life of 162 patients with confirmed sarcoidosis in a prospective, cross-sectional study using the Sarcoidosis Health Questionnaire (SHQ) and Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36). We evaluated the validity of these questionnaires and sought to identify variables that would best explain the performance scores of the patients. On multivariate regression analyses, the very best composite model to predict total scores from both surveys was a model containing the distance-saturation product and Borg Dyspnea Scale score at the end of a 6-min walk test. This model could better predict SF-36 scores (R² = 0.33) than SHQ scores (R² = 0.24). Substitution of distanced walked in 6 min for the distance-saturation product in this model resulted in a lesser ability to predict both scores (R² = 0.26 for SF-36; R² = 0.22 for SHQ). Both the SHQ and SF-36 surveys are valuable tools in the assessment of health-related quality of life in sarcoidosis patients. The best model to predict quality of life among these patients, as determined by regression analyses, included the distance-saturation product and Borg score after the 6-min walk test. Both variables represent easily obtainable clinical parameters that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention.

  13. Predictive Models for Different Roughness Parameters During Machining Process of Peek Composites Using Response Surface Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mata-Cabrera Francisco

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Polyetheretherketone (PEEK composite belongs to a group of high performance thermoplastic polymers and is widely used in structural components. To improve the mechanical and tribological properties, short fibers are added as reinforcement to the material. Due to its functional properties and potential applications, it’s impor- tant to investigate the machinability of non-reinforced PEEK (PEEK, PEEK rein- forced with 30% of carbon fibers (PEEK CF30, and reinforced PEEK with 30% glass fibers (PEEK GF30 to determine the optimal conditions for the manufacture of the parts. The present study establishes the relationship between the cutting con- ditions (cutting speed and feed rate and the roughness (Ra , Rt , Rq , Rp , by develop- ing second order mathematical models. The experiments were planned as per full factorial design of experiments and an analysis of variance has been performed to check the adequacy of the models. These state the adequacy of the derived models to obtain predictions for roughness parameters within ranges of parameters that have been investigated during the experiments. The experimental results show that the most influence of the cutting parameters is the feed rate, furthermore, proved that glass fiber reinforcements produce a worse machinability.

  14. A Compact Methodology to Understand, Evaluate, and Predict the Performance of Automatic Target Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanpeng; Li, Xiang; Wang, Hongqiang; Chen, Yiping; Zhuang, Zhaowen; Cheng, Yongqiang; Deng, Bin; Wang, Liandong; Zeng, Yonghu; Gao, Lei

    2014-01-01

    This paper offers a compacted mechanism to carry out the performance evaluation work for an automatic target recognition (ATR) system: (a) a standard description of the ATR system's output is suggested, a quantity to indicate the operating condition is presented based on the principle of feature extraction in pattern recognition, and a series of indexes to assess the output in different aspects are developed with the application of statistics; (b) performance of the ATR system is interpreted by a quality factor based on knowledge of engineering mathematics; (c) through a novel utility called “context-probability” estimation proposed based on probability, performance prediction for an ATR system is realized. The simulation result shows that the performance of an ATR system can be accounted for and forecasted by the above-mentioned measures. Compared to existing technologies, the novel method can offer more objective performance conclusions for an ATR system. These conclusions may be helpful in knowing the practical capability of the tested ATR system. At the same time, the generalization performance of the proposed method is good. PMID:24967605

  15. Fatigue life prediction of Ni-base thermal solar receiver tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartrott, Philipp von; Schlesinger, Michael [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Uhlig, Ralf; Jedamski, Jens [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Stuttgart (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    Solar receivers for tower type Solar Thermal Power Plants are subjected to complex thermo-mechanical loads including fast and severe thermo-mechanical cycles. The material temperatures can reach more than 800 C and fall to room temperature very quickly. In order to predict the fatigue life of a receiver design, receiver tubes made of Alloy 625 with a wall thickness of 0.5 mm were tested in isothermal and thermo-cyclic experiments. The number of cycles to failure was in the range of 100 to 100,000. A thermo-mechanical fatigue life prediction model was set up. The model is based on the cyclic deformation of the material and the damage caused by the growth of fatigue micro cracks. The model reasonably predicts the experimental results. (orig.)

  16. Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westphal, T; Nijssen, R P L

    2014-01-01

    The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort

  17. Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westphal, T.; Nijssen, R. P. L.

    2014-12-01

    The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort.

  18. Computational models for residual creep life prediction of power plant components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grewal, G.S.; Singh, A.K.; Ramamoortry, M.

    2006-01-01

    All high temperature - high pressure power plant components are prone to irreversible visco-plastic deformation by the phenomenon of creep. The steady state creep response as well as the total creep life of a material is related to the operational component temperature through, respectively, the exponential and inverse exponential relationships. Minor increases in the component temperature can thus have serious consequences as far as the creep life and dimensional stability of a plant component are concerned. In high temperature steam tubing in power plants, one mechanism by which a significant temperature rise can occur is by the growth of a thermally insulating oxide film on its steam side surface. In the present paper, an elegantly simple and computationally efficient technique is presented for predicting the residual creep life of steel components subjected to continual steam side oxide film growth. Similarly, fabrication of high temperature power plant components involves extensive use of welding as the fabrication process of choice. Naturally, issues related to the creep life of weldments have to be seriously addressed for safe and continual operation of the welded plant component. Unfortunately, a typical weldment in an engineering structure is a zone of complex microstructural gradation comprising of a number of distinct sub-zones with distinct meso-scale and micro-scale morphology of the phases and (even) chemistry and its creep life prediction presents considerable challenges. The present paper presents a stochastic algorithm, which can be' used for developing experimental creep-cavitation intensity versus residual life correlations for welded structures. Apart from estimates of the residual life in a mean field sense, the model can be used for predicting the reliability of the plant component in a rigorous probabilistic setting. (author)

  19. A General Design Methodology for Synchronous Early-Completion-Prediction Adders in Nano-CMOS DSP Architectures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Olivieri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Synchronous early-completion-prediction adders (ECPAs are used for high clock rate and high-precision DSP datapaths, as they allow a dominant amount of single-cycle operations even if the worst-case carry propagation delay is longer than the clock period. Previous works have also demonstrated ECPA advantages for average leakage reduction and NBTI effects reduction in nanoscale CMOS technologies. This paper illustrates a general systematic methodology to design ECPA units, targeting nanoscale CMOS technologies, which is not available in the current literature yet. The method is fully compatible with standard VLSI macrocell design tools and standard adder structures and includes automatic definition of critical test patterns for postlayout verification. A design example is included, reporting speed and power data superior to previous works.

  20. Remote Sensing-based Methodologies for Snow Model Adjustments in Operational Streamflow Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, S.; Miller, W. P.; Bernard, B.; Stokes, M.; Oaida, C. M.; Painter, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    Water management agencies rely on hydrologic forecasts issued by operational agencies such as NOAA's Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC). The CBRFC has partnered with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under funding from NASA to incorporate research-oriented, remotely-sensed snow data into CBRFC operations and to improve the accuracy of CBRFC forecasts. The partnership has yielded valuable analysis of snow surface albedo as represented in JPL's MODIS Dust Radiative Forcing in Snow (MODDRFS) data, across the CBRFC's area of responsibility. When dust layers within a snowpack emerge, reducing the snow surface albedo, the snowmelt rate may accelerate. The CBRFC operational snow model (SNOW17) is a temperature-index model that lacks explicit representation of snowpack surface albedo. CBRFC forecasters monitor MODDRFS data for emerging dust layers and may manually adjust SNOW17 melt rates. A technique was needed for efficient and objective incorporation of the MODDRFS data into SNOW17. Initial development focused in Colorado, where dust-on-snow events frequently occur. CBRFC forecasters used retrospective JPL-CBRFC analysis and developed a quantitative relationship between MODDRFS data and mean areal temperature (MAT) data. The relationship was used to generate adjusted, MODDRFS-informed input for SNOW17. Impacts of the MODDRFS-SNOW17 MAT adjustment method on snowmelt-driven streamflow prediction varied spatially and with characteristics of the dust deposition events. The largest improvements occurred in southwestern Colorado, in years with intense dust deposition events. Application of the method in other regions of Colorado and in "low dust" years resulted in minimal impact. The MODDRFS-SNOW17 MAT technique will be implemented in CBRFC operations in late 2015, prior to spring 2016 runoff. Collaborative investigation of remote sensing-based adjustment methods for the CBRFC operational hydrologic forecasting environment will continue over the next several years.

  1. A novel registration-based methodology for prediction of trabecular bone fabric from clinical QCT: A comprehensive analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vimal Chandran

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis leads to hip fractures in aging populations and is diagnosed by modern medical imaging techniques such as quantitative computed tomography (QCT. Hip fracture sites involve trabecular bone, whose strength is determined by volume fraction and orientation, known as fabric. However, bone fabric cannot be reliably assessed in clinical QCT images of proximal femur. Accordingly, we propose a novel registration-based estimation of bone fabric designed to preserve tensor properties of bone fabric and to map bone fabric by a global and local decomposition of the gradient of a non-rigid image registration transformation. Furthermore, no comprehensive analysis on the critical components of this methodology has been previously conducted. Hence, the aim of this work was to identify the best registration-based strategy to assign bone fabric to the QCT image of a patient's proximal femur. The normalized correlation coefficient and curvature-based regularization were used for image-based registration and the Frobenius norm of the stretch tensor of the local gradient was selected to quantify the distance among the proximal femora in the population. Based on this distance, closest, farthest and mean femora with a distinction of sex were chosen as alternative atlases to evaluate their influence on bone fabric prediction. Second, we analyzed different tensor mapping schemes for bone fabric prediction: identity, rotation-only, rotation and stretch tensor. Third, we investigated the use of a population average fabric atlas. A leave one out (LOO evaluation study was performed with a dual QCT and HR-pQCT database of 36 pairs of human femora. The quality of the fabric prediction was assessed with three metrics, the tensor norm (TN error, the degree of anisotropy (DA error and the angular deviation of the principal tensor direction (PTD. The closest femur atlas (CTP with a full rotation (CR for fabric mapping delivered the best results with a TN error of 7

  2. Fatigue analysis and life prediction of composite highway bridge decks under traffic loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando N. Leitão

    Full Text Available Steel and composite (steel-concrete highway bridges are currently subjected to dynamic actions of variable magnitude due to convoy of vehicles crossing on the deck pavement. These dynamic actions can generate the nucleation of fractures or even their propagation on the bridge deck structure. Proper consideration of all of the aspects mentioned pointed our team to develop an analysis methodology with emphasis to evaluate the stresses through a dynamic analysis of highway bridge decks including the action of vehicles. The design codes recommend the application of the curves S-N associated to the Miner's damage rule to evaluate the fatigue and service life of steel and composite (steel-concrete bridges. In this work, the developed computational model adopted the usual mesh refinement techniques present in finite element method simulations implemented in the ANSYS program. The investigated highway bridge is constituted by four longitudinal composite girders and a concrete deck, spanning 40.0m by 13.5m. The analysis methodology and procedures presented in the design codes were applied to evaluate the fatigue of the bridge determining the service life of the structure. The main conclusions of this investigation focused on alerting structural engineers to the possible distortions, associated to the steel and composite bridge's service life when subjected to vehicle's dynamic actions.

  3. Implementation of Prognostic Methodologies to Cryogenic Propellant Loading Test-bed

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics methodologies determine the health state of a system and predict the end of life and remaining useful life. This information enables operators to take...

  4. Prediction of the Service Life of a Reinforced Concrete Column under Chloride Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad K. Alkam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present investigation, service life of a reinforced concrete column exposed to chloride environment has been predicted. This study has been based on numerical simulation of chloride ion diffusion in a concrete column during its anticipated life span. The simulation process has included the concrete cover replacement whenever chloride ion concentration has reached the critical threshold value at the reinforcement surface. Repair scheduling of the concrete column under consideration has been discussed. Effects of the concrete cover thickness and the water cement ratio on the service life of the concrete column at hand have been presented. A new approach for arranging locations of reinforcement steel bars has been introduced. This approach is intended to prolong the service life of the concrete column under consideration against chloride induced corrosion.

  5. A new simplified allometric approach for predicting the biological half-life of radionuclides in reptiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beresford, N.A.; Wood, M.D.

    2014-01-01

    A major source of uncertainty in the estimation of radiation dose to wildlife is the prediction of internal radionuclide activity concentrations. Allometric (mass-dependent) relationships describing biological half-life (T 1/2b ) of radionuclides in organisms can be used to predict organism activity concentrations. The establishment of allometric expressions requires experimental data which are often lacking. An approach to predict the T 1/2b in homeothermic vertebrates has recently been proposed. In this paper we have adapted this to be applicable to reptiles. For Cs, Ra and Sr, over a mass range of 0.02–1.5 kg, resultant predictions were generally within a factor of 6 of reported values demonstrating that the approach can be used when measured T 1/2b data are lacking. However, the effect of mass on reptilian radionuclide T 1/2b is minimal. If sufficient measured data are available for a given radionuclide then it is likely that these would give a reasonable estimate of T 1/2b in any reptile species. - Highlights: • An allometric approach to predict radionuclide T 1/2b values in reptiles is derived. • Predictions are generally within a factor of six of measured values. • Radionuclide biological half-life is in-effect mass independent

  6. Lithium-ion battery remaining useful life prediction based on grey support vector machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaogang Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, an improved grey prediction model is proposed to address low-accuracy prediction issue of grey forecasting model. The first step is using a trigonometric function to transform the original data sequence to smooth the data, which is called smoothness of grey prediction model, and then a grey support vector machine model by integrating the improved grey model with support vector machine is introduced. At the initial stage of the model, trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation can be used to preprocess the data, which enhances the smoothness of the data and reduces the associated randomness. In addition, support vector machine is implemented to establish a prediction model for the pre-processed data and select the optimal model parameters via genetic algorithms. Finally, the data are restored through the ‘regressive generate’ operation to obtain the forecasting data. To prove that the grey support vector machine model is superior to the other models, the battery life data from the Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering are selected, and the presented model is used to predict the remaining useful life of the battery. The predicted result is compared to that of grey model and support vector machines. For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this article quantifies the root mean square errors for these three different models in the case of different ratio of training samples and prediction samples. The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine model is optimal, and the corresponding root mean square error is only 3.18%.

  7. Physical activity predicts quality of life and happiness in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, Carol Ann; Toohey, Monica; Ferguson, Monika

    2016-01-01

    To examine the associations between physical activity, health-related quality of life and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. A total of 70 young people with cerebral palsy (45 males, 25 females; mean age 13 years 11 months, SD 2 years 0 month) took part in a cross-sectional, descriptive postal survey assessing physical activity (Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents), functional ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System), quality of life (Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0) and happiness (single Likert-scale item). Relationships between physical activity, quality of life and happiness were examined using backward stepwise linear regression. Physical activity significantly predicted physical quality of life (R(2 )= 0.64, β = 6.12, p = 0.02), social quality of life (R(2 )= 0.28, β = 9.27, p happiness (R(2 )= 0.08, β = 0.9, p = 0.04). Physical activity was not associated with emotional or school quality of life. This study found a positive association between physical activity, social and physical quality of life, and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. Findings underscore the potential benefits of physical activity for the wellbeing of young people with cerebral palsy, in addition to its well-recognised physical and health benefits. Physical activity is a key predictor of quality of life and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. Physical activity is widely recognised as having physical health benefits for young people with cerebral palsy; however, this study also highlights that it may have important benefits for wellbeing, quality of life and happiness. This emphasises the need for clinical services and intervention studies aimed specifically at increasing physical activity amongst children and adolescents with cerebral palsy.

  8. Development of a clinical prediction model to calculate patient life expectancy: the measure of actuarial life expectancy (MALE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, M G; Kennedy, K P; MacDonagh, R P

    2009-01-01

    To develop a clinical prediction model enabling the calculation of an individual patient's life expectancy (LE) and survival probability based on age, sex, and comorbidity for use in the joint decision-making process regarding medical treatment. A computer software program was developed with a team of 3 clinicians, 2 professional actuaries, and 2 professional computer programmers. This incorporated statistical spreadsheet and database access design methods. Data sources included life insurance industry actuarial rating factor tables (public and private domain), Government Actuary Department UK life tables, professional actuarial sources, and evidence-based medical literature. The main outcome measures were numerical and graphical display of comorbidity-adjusted LE; 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival probability; in addition to generic UK population LE. Nineteen medical conditions, which impacted significantly on LE in actuarial terms and were commonly encountered in clinical practice, were incorporated in the final model. Numerical and graphical representations of statistical predictions of LE and survival probability were successfully generated for patients with either no comorbidity or a combination of the 19 medical conditions included. Validation and testing, including actuarial peer review, confirmed consistency with the data sources utilized. The evidence-based actuarial data utilized in this computer program design represent a valuable resource for use in the clinical decision-making process, where an accurate objective assessment of patient LE can so often make the difference between patients being offered or denied medical and surgical treatment. Ongoing development to incorporate additional comorbidities and enable Web-based access will enhance its use further.

  9. Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

    2008-11-25

    A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

  10. Creep Rupture Life Prediction Based on Analysis of Large Creep Deformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YE Wenming

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A creep rupture life prediction method for high temperature component was proposed. The method was based on a true stress-strain elastoplastic creep constitutive model and the large deformation finite element analysis method. This method firstly used the high-temperature tensile stress-strain curve expressed by true stress and strain and the creep curve to build materials' elastoplastic and creep constitutive model respectively, then used the large deformation finite element method to calculate the deformation response of high temperature component under a given load curve, finally the creep rupture life was determined according to the change trend of the responsive curve.The method was verified by durable test of TC11 titanium alloy notched specimens under 500 ℃, and was compared with the three creep rupture life prediction methods based on the small deformation analysis. Results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the high temperature creep response and long-term life of TC11 notched specimens, and the accuracy is better than that of the methods based on the average effective stress of notch ligament, the bone point stress and the fracture strain of the key point, which are all based on small deformation finite element analysis.

  11. A durability model incorporating safe life methodology and damage tolerance approach to assess first inspection and maintenance period for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong, J.J.; Shenoi, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper outlines a new durability model to assess the first inspection and maintenance period for structures. Practical scatter factor formulae are presented to determine the safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives from the results of a single full-scale test of a complete structure. New theoretical solutions are proposed to determine the s a -s m -N surfaces of fatigue crack initiation and propagation. Prediction techniques are then developed to establish the relationship equation between safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives with a specific reliability level using a two-stage fatigue damage cumulative rule. A new durability model incorporating safe life and damage tolerance design approaches is derived to assess the first inspection and maintenance period. Finally, the proposed models are applied to assess the first inspection and maintenance period of a fastening structure at the root of helicopter blade.

  12. A durability model incorporating safe life methodology and damage tolerance approach to assess first inspection and maintenance period for structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiong, J.J. [Aircraft Department, Beihang University, Beijing 100083 (China); Shenoi, R.A. [School of Engineering Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: r.a.shenoi@ship.soton.ac.uk

    2009-08-15

    This paper outlines a new durability model to assess the first inspection and maintenance period for structures. Practical scatter factor formulae are presented to determine the safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives from the results of a single full-scale test of a complete structure. New theoretical solutions are proposed to determine the s{sub a}-s{sub m}-N surfaces of fatigue crack initiation and propagation. Prediction techniques are then developed to establish the relationship equation between safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives with a specific reliability level using a two-stage fatigue damage cumulative rule. A new durability model incorporating safe life and damage tolerance design approaches is derived to assess the first inspection and maintenance period. Finally, the proposed models are applied to assess the first inspection and maintenance period of a fastening structure at the root of helicopter blade.

  13. Menopausal symptoms: do life events predict severity of symptoms in peri- and post-menopause?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimenta, Filipa; Leal, Isabel; Maroco, João; Ramos, Catarina

    2012-08-01

    Hormonal changes during menopausal transition are linked to physical and psychological symptoms' emergence. This study aims to explore if life events predict menopausal symptoms. This cross-sectional research encompasses a community sample of 992 women who answered to socio-demographic, health, menopause-related and lifestyle questionnaires; menopausal symptoms and life events were assessed with validated instruments. Structural equation modeling was used to build a causal model. Menopausal status predicted only three symptoms: skin/facial hair changes (β=.136; p=.020), sexual (β=.157; p=.004) and, marginally, vasomotor symptoms (β=.094; p=.054). Life events predicted depressive mood (β=-.391; p=.002), anxiety (β=-.271; p=.003), perceived cognitive impairment (β=-.295; p=.003), body shape changes (β=-.136; p=.031), aches/pain (β=-.212; p=.007), skin/facial hair changes (β=-.171; p=.021), numbness (β=-.169; p=.015), perceived loss of control (β=-.234; p=.008), mouth, nails and hair changes (β=-.290; p=.004), vasomotor (β=-.113; p=.044) and sexual symptoms (β=-.208; p=.009). Although women in peri- and post-menopausal manifested higher symptoms' severity than their pre-menopausal counterparts, only three of the menopausal symptoms assessed were predicted by menopausal status. Since the vast majority of menopausal symptoms' severity was significantly influenced by the way women perceived their recent life events, it is concluded that the symptomatology exacerbation, in peri- and post-menopausal women, might be due to life conditions and events, rather than hormonal changes (nonetheless, the inverse influence should be investigated in future studies). Therefore, these should be accounted for in menopause-related clinical and research settings. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Prediction of inelastic behavior and creep-fatigue life of perforated plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Yamauchi, Masafumi; Nomura, Shinichi.

    1992-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local stress-strain behaviors of perforated plates in plastic and creep regime are proposed in this paper, and are applied to the creep-fatigue life prediction of perforated plates. Both equivalent-solid-plate properties corresponding to the macroscopic behavior and the stress-strain concentration around a hole were obtained by assuming the analogy between plasticity and creep and also by extending the authors' proposal in creep condition. The perforated plates which were made of Hastelloy XR were subjected to the strain-controlled cyclic test at 950degC in air in order to experimentally obtain the macroscopic behavior such as the cyclic stress-strain curve and creep-fatigue life around a hole. The results obtained are summarized as follows. (1) The macroscopic behavior of perforated plates including cyclic stress-strain behavior and relaxation is predictable by using the proposed method in this paper. (2) The creep-fatigue life around a hole can be predicted by using the proposed method for stress-strain concentration around a hole. (author)

  15. Does life satisfaction predict five-year mortality in community-living older adults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Mackenzie, Corey; Menec, Verena

    2015-01-01

    Depression and depressive symptoms predict death, but it is less clear if more general measures of life satisfaction (LS) predict death. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if LS predicts mortality over a five-year period in community-living older adults; and (2) which aspects of LS predict death. 1751 adults over the age of 65 who were living in the community were sampled from a representative population sampling frame in 1991/1992 and followed five years later. Age, gender, and education were self-reported. An index of multimorbidity and the Older American Resource Survey measured health and functional status, and the Terrible-Delightful Scale assessed overall LS as well as satisfaction with: health, finances, family, friends, housing, recreation, self-esteem, religion, and transportation. Cox proportional hazards models examined the influence of LS on time to death. 417 participants died during the five-year study period. Overall LS and all aspects of LS except finances, religion, and self-esteem predicted death in unadjusted analyses. In fully adjusted analyses, LS with health, housing, and recreation predicted death. Other aspects of LS did not predict death after accounting for functional status and multimorbidity. LS predicted death, but certain aspects of LS are more strongly associated with death. The effect of LS is complex and may be mediated or confounded by health and functional status. It is important to consider different domains of LS when considering the impact of this important emotional indicator on mortality among older adults.

  16. Remaining useful life prediction based on noisy condition monitoring signals using constrained Kalman filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Junbo; Zhou, Shiyu; Sankavaram, Chaitanya; Du, Xinyu; Zhang, Yilu

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a statistical prognostic method to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual units based on noisy condition monitoring signals is proposed. The prediction accuracy of existing data-driven prognostic methods depends on the capability of accurately modeling the evolution of condition monitoring (CM) signals. Therefore, it is inevitable that the RUL prediction accuracy depends on the amount of random noise in CM signals. When signals are contaminated by a large amount of random noise, RUL prediction even becomes infeasible in some cases. To mitigate this issue, a robust RUL prediction method based on constrained Kalman filter is proposed. The proposed method models the CM signals subject to a set of inequality constraints so that satisfactory prediction accuracy can be achieved regardless of the noise level of signal evolution. The advantageous features of the proposed RUL prediction method is demonstrated by both numerical study and case study with real world data from automotive lead-acid batteries. - Highlights: • A computationally efficient constrained Kalman filter is proposed. • Proposed filter is integrated into an online failure prognosis framework. • A set of proper constraints significantly improves the failure prediction accuracy. • Promising results are reported in the application of battery failure prognosis.

  17. Predicting quality of life in pediatric asthma: the role of emotional competence and personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahaye, Magali; Van Broeck, Nady; Bodart, Eddy; Luminet, Olivier

    2013-05-01

    The present study examined the predictive value of emotional competence and the five-factor model of personality on the quality of life of children with asthma. Participants were 90 children (M age = 11.73, SD = 2.60) having controlled and partly controlled asthma, undergoing everyday treatment. Children filled in questionnaires assessing emotional competence and quality of life. Parents completed questionnaires assessing the personality of their child. Results showed that two emotional competences, bodily awareness and verbal sharing of emotions, were related to the quality of life of children with asthma. Moreover, one personality trait, benevolence, was associated with children's quality of life. Regression analyses showed that the predictive value of these three dimensions remained significant over and above asthma control and socio-demographic variables frequently associated with the quality of life of children with asthma (age, gender, and educational level of parents). These findings emphasize the importance of alerting the clinician who works with children with asthma to observe and assess the child's expression of emotions, attention to bodily sensations, and benevolence.

  18. Methodologically Sound: Evaluating the Psychometric Approach to the Assessment of Human Life History [Reply to Copping, Campbell, and Muncer, 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabeza de Baca, Tomás; Black, Candace Jasmine; García, Rafael Antonio; Fernandes, Heitor Barcellos Ferreira; Wolf, Pedro Sofio Abril; Woodley of Menie, Michael Anthony

    2016-01-01

    Copping, Campbell, and Muncer (2014) have recently published an article critical of the psychometric approach to the assessment of life history (LH) strategy. Their purported goal was testing for the convergent validation and examining the psychometric structure of the High-K Strategy Scale (HKSS). As much of the literature on the psychometrics of human LH during the past decade or so has emanated from our research laboratory and those of close collaborators, we have prepared this detailed response. Our response is organized into four main sections: (1) A review of psychometric methods for the assessment of human LH strategy, expounding upon the essence of our approach; (2) our theoretical/conceptual concerns regarding the critique, addressing the broader issues raised by the critique regarding the latent and hierarchical structure of LH strategy; (3) our statistical/methodological concerns regarding the critique, examining the validity and persuasiveness of the empirical case made specifically against the HKSS; and (4) our recommendations for future research that we think might be helpful in closing the gap between the psychometric and biometric approaches to measurement in this area. Clearly stating our theoretical positions, describing our existing body of work, and acknowledgintheir limitations should assist future researchers in planning and implementing more informed and prudent empirical research that will synthesize the psychometric approach to the assessment of LH strategy with complementary methods. PMID:25844774

  19. Methodologically Sound: Evaluating the Psychometric Approach to the Assessment of Human Life History [Reply to Copping, Campbell, and Muncer, 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurelio José Figueredo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Copping, Campbell, and Muncer (2014 have recently published an article critical of the psychometric approach to the assessment of life history (LH strategy. Their purported goal was testing for the convergent validation and examining the psychometric structure of the High-K Strategy Scale (HKSS. As much of the literature on the psychometrics of human LH during the past decade or so has emanated from our research laboratory and those of close collaborators, we have prepared this detailed response. Our response is organized into four main sections: (1 A review of psychometric methods for the assessment of human LH strategy, expounding upon the essence of our approach; (2 our theoretical/conceptual concerns regarding the critique, addressing the broader issues raised by the critique regarding the latent and hierarchical structure of LH strategy; (3 our statistical/methodological concerns regarding the critique, examining the validity and persuasiveness of the empirical case made specifically against the HKSS; and (4 our recommendations for future research that we think might be helpful in closing the gap between the psychometric and biometric approaches to measurement in this area. Clearly stating our theoretical positions, describing our existing body of work, and acknowledging their limitations should assist future researchers in planning and implementing more informed and prudent empirical research that will synthesize the psychometric approach to the assessment of LH strategy with complementary methods.

  20. A new crack growth model for life prediction under random loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ouk Sub; Chen, Zhi Wei

    1999-01-01

    The load interaction effect in variable amplitude fatigue test is a very important issue for correctly predicting fatigue life. Some prediction methods for retardation are reviewed and the problems discussed. The so-called 'under-load' effect is also of importance for a prediction model to work properly under random load spectrum. A new model that is simple in form but combines overload plastic zone and residual stress considerations together with Elber's closure concept is proposed to fully take account of the load-interaction effects including both over-load and under-load effects. Applying this new model to complex load sequence is explored here. Simulations of tests show the improvement of the new model over other models. The best prediction (mostly closely resembling test curve) is given by the newly proposed Chen-Lee model

  1. Residual Stress Estimation and Fatigue Life Prediction of an Autofrettaged Pressure Vessel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Kyung Jin; Kim, Eun Kyum; Koh, Seung Kee [Kunsan Nat’l Univ., Kunsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-09-15

    Fatigue failure of an autofrettaged pressure vessel with a groove at the outside surface occurs owing to the fatigue crack initiation and propagation at the groove root. In order to predict the fatigue life of the autofrettaged pressure vessel, residual stresses in the autofrettaged pressure vessel were evaluated using the finite element method, and the fatigue properties of the pressure vessel steel were obtained from the fatigue tests. Fatigue life of a pressure vessel obtained through summation of the crack initiation and propagation lives was calculated to be 2,598 cycles for an 80% autofrettaged pressure vessel subjected to a pulsating internal pressure of 424 MPa.

  2. Contribution to life-time predictions of gas turbine components under cyclic load

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoelscher, R.

    1982-02-15

    The low cycle fatique life of gas turbine components is analysed using the turbine blade of the ATAR 101 F jet engine turbine as example. The results show that, among other things thermal stresses during start-up and shut-off cause considerable damage to the material. Tests using a model rig showed that damage caused by material creep and LCF-mechanisms stongly depended on cyclic parameters such as temperature, temperature development, and power etc. Two long-term tests confirm that the Manson model can be used to give a reasonable prediction of turbine blade life.

  3. Wealth and happiness across the world: material prosperity predicts life evaluation, whereas psychosocial prosperity predicts positive feeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diener, Ed; Ng, Weiting; Harter, James; Arora, Raksha

    2010-07-01

    The Gallup World Poll, the first representative sample of planet Earth, was used to explore the reasons why happiness is associated with higher income, including the meeting of basic needs, fulfillment of psychological needs, increasing satisfaction with one's standard of living, and public goods. Across the globe, the association of log income with subjective well-being was linear but convex with raw income, indicating the declining marginal effects of income on subjective well-being. Income was a moderately strong predictor of life evaluation but a much weaker predictor of positive and negative feelings. Possessing luxury conveniences and satisfaction with standard of living were also strong predictors of life evaluation. Although the meeting of basic and psychological needs mediated the effects of income on life evaluation to some degree, the strongest mediation was provided by standard of living and ownership of conveniences. In contrast, feelings were most associated with the fulfillment of psychological needs: learning, autonomy, using one's skills, respect, and the ability to count on others in an emergency. Thus, two separate types of prosperity-economic and social psychological-best predict different types of well-being.

  4. Investigating the association between medication adherence and health-related quality of life in COPD : Methodological challenges when using a proxy measure of adherence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boland, Melinde R. S.; van Boven, Job F. M.; Kruis, Annemarije L.; Chavannes, Niels H.; van der Molen, Thys; Goossens, Lucas M. A.; Rutten-van Molken, Maureen P. M. H.

    Background: The association between non-adherence to medication and health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) remains poorly understood. Different ways to deal with methodological challenges to estimate this association have probably contributed to

  5. Towards A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for elec- trolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter approach in conjunction with an...

  6. Towards A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology For Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based On Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a model-driven methodology for predict- ing the remaining useful life of electrolytic capacitors. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter...

  7. Prediction of expected years of life using whole-genome markers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo de los Campos

    Full Text Available Genetic factors are believed to account for 25% of the interindividual differences in Years of Life (YL among humans. However, the genetic loci that have thus far been found to be associated with YL explain a very small proportion of the expected genetic variation in this trait, perhaps reflecting the complexity of the trait and the limitations of traditional association studies when applied to traits affected by a large number of small-effect genes. Using data from the Framingham Heart Study and statistical methods borrowed largely from the field of animal genetics (whole-genome prediction, WGP, we developed a WGP model for the study of YL and evaluated the extent to which thousands of genetic variants across the genome examined simultaneously can be used to predict interindividual differences in YL. We find that a sizable proportion of differences in YL--which were unexplained by age at entry, sex, smoking and BMI--can be accounted for and predicted using WGP methods. The contribution of genomic information to prediction accuracy was even higher than that of smoking and body mass index (BMI combined; two predictors that are considered among the most important life-shortening factors. We evaluated the impacts of familial relationships and population structure (as described by the first two marker-derived principal components and concluded that in our dataset population structure explained partially, but not fully the gains in prediction accuracy obtained with WGP. Further inspection of prediction accuracies by age at death indicated that most of the gains in predictive ability achieved with WGP were due to the increased accuracy of prediction of early mortality, perhaps reflecting the ability of WGP to capture differences in genetic risk to deadly diseases such as cancer, which are most often responsible for early mortality in our sample.

  8. Methodology for systematic analysis and improvement of manufacturing unit process life-cycle inventory (UPLCI)—CO2PE! initiative (cooperative effort on process emissions in manufacturing). Part 1: Methodology description

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kellens, Karel; Dewulf, Wim; Overcash, Michael

    2012-01-01

    the provision of high-quality data for LCA studies of products using these unit process datasets for the manufacturing processes, as well as the in-depth analysis of individual manufacturing unit processes.In addition, the accruing availability of data for a range of similar machines (same process, different......This report proposes a life-cycle analysis (LCA)-oriented methodology for systematic inventory analysis of the use phase of manufacturing unit processes providing unit process datasets to be used in life-cycle inventory (LCI) databases and libraries. The methodology has been developed...... and resource efficiency improvements of the manufacturing unit process. To ensure optimal reproducibility and applicability, documentation guidelines for data and metadata are included in both approaches. Guidance on definition of functional unit and reference flow as well as on determination of system...

  9. Optimization of edible coating formulations for improving postharvest quality and shelf life of pear fruit using response surface methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandane, A S; Dave, Rudri K; Rao, T V Ramana

    2017-01-01

    The effect of composite edible films containing soy protein isolate (SPI) in combination with additives like hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC) and olive oil on 'Babughosha' pear ( Pyrus communis L.) stored at ambient temperature (28 ± 5 °C and 60 ± 10% RH) was evaluated using Response surface methodology (RSM). A total of 30 edible coating formulations comprising of SPI (2-6%, w/v), olive oil (0.7-1.1%, v/v), HPMC (0.1-0.5%, w/v) and potassium sorbate (0-0.4% w/v) were evaluated for optimizing the most suitable combination. Quality parameters like weight loss%, TSS, pH and titrable acidity of the stored pears were selected as response variables for optimization. The optimization procedure was carried out using RSM. It was observed that the response variables were mainly effected by concentration of SPI and olive oil in the formulation. Edible coating comprising of SPI 5%, HPMC 0.40%, olive oil 1% and potassium sorbate 0.22% was found to be most suitable combination for pear fruit with predicted values of response variables indicated as weight loss% 3.50, pH 3.41, TSS 11.13 and TA% 0.513.

  10. Imagining life with an ostomy: Does a video intervention improve quality-of-life predictions for a medical condition that may elicit disgust?☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angott, Andrea M.; Comerford, David A.; Ubel, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To test a video intervention as a way to improve predictions of mood and quality-of-life with an emotionally evocative medical condition. Such predictions are typically inaccurate, which can be consequential for decision making. Method In Part 1, people presently or formerly living with ostomies predicted how watching a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch would affect mood and quality-of-life forecasts for life with an ostomy. In Part 2, participants from the general public read a description about life with an ostomy; half also watched a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch. Participants’ quality-of-life and mood forecasts for life with an ostomy were assessed. Results Contrary to our expectations, and the expectations of people presently or formerly living with ostomies, the video did not reduce mood or quality-of-life estimates, even among participants high in trait disgust sensitivity. Among low-disgust participants, watching the video increased quality-of-life predictions for ostomy. Conclusion Video interventions may improve mood and quality-of-life forecasts for medical conditions, including those that may elicit disgust, such as ostomy. Practice implications Video interventions focusing on patients’ experience of illness continue to show promise as components of decision aids, even for emotionally charged health states such as ostomy. PMID:23177398

  11. Exposure to stressful life events during pregnancy predicts psychotic experiences via behaviour problems in childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Kim S; Williams, Gail M; Najman, Jakob M; Scott, James; Alati, Rosa

    2014-12-01

    Exposure to stressful life events during pregnancy has been associated with later schizophrenia in offspring. We explore how prenatal stress and neurodevelopmental abnormalities in childhood associate to increase the risk of later psychotic experiences. Participants from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), an Australian based, pre-birth cohort study were examined for lifetime DSM-IV positive psychotic experiences at 21 years by a semi-structured interview (n = 2227). Structural equation modelling suggested psychotic experiences were best represented with a bifactor model including a general psychosis factor and two group factors. We tested for an association between prenatal stressful life events with the psychotic experiences, and examined for potential moderation and mediation by behaviour problems and cognitive ability in childhood. Prenatal stressful life events predicted psychotic experiences indirectly via behaviour problems at child age five years, and this relationship was not confounded by maternal stressful life events at child age five. We found no statistical evidence for an interaction between prenatal stressful life events and behaviour problems or cognitive ability. The measurable effect of prenatal stressful life events on later psychotic experiences in offspring manifested as behaviour problems by age 5. By identifying early abnormal behavioural development as an intermediary, this finding further confirms the role of prenatal stress to later psychotic disorders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Methodological and Reporting Quality of Comparative Studies Evaluating Health-Related Quality of Life of Colorectal Cancer Patients and Controls: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Carlos K H; Guo, Vivian Y W; Chen, Jing; Lam, Cindy L K

    2016-11-01

    Health-related quality of life is an important outcome measure in patients with colorectal cancer. Comparison with normative data has been increasingly undertaken to assess the additional impact of colorectal cancer on health-related quality of life. This review aimed to critically appraise the methodological details and reporting characteristics of comparative studies evaluating differences in health-related quality of life between patients and controls. A systematic search of English-language literature published between January 1985 and May 2014 was conducted through a database search of PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Medline. Comparative studies reporting health-related quality-of-life outcomes among patients who have colorectal cancer and controls were selected. Methodological and reporting quality per comparison study was evaluated based on a 11-item methodological checklist proposed by Efficace in 2003 and a set of criteria predetermined by reviewers. Thirty-one comparative studies involving >10,000 patients and >10,000 controls were included. Twenty-three studies (74.2%) originated from European countries, with the largest number from the Netherlands (n = 6). Twenty-eight studies (90.3%) compared the health-related quality of life of patients with normative data published elsewhere, whereas the remaining studies recruited a group of patients who had colorectal cancer and a group of control patients within the same studies. The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality-of-Life Questionnaire Core 30 was the most extensively used instrument (n = 16; 51.6%). Eight studies (25.8%) were classified as "probably robust" for clinical decision making according to the Efficace standard methodological checklist. Our further quality assessment revealed the lack of score differences reported (61.3%), contemporary comparisons (36.7%), statistical significance tested (38.7%), and matching of control group (58.1%), possibly leading to

  13. Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Gaussian Processes Mixture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lingling; Wang, Pengchong; Chao, Kuei-Hsiang; Zhou, Yatong; Xie, Yang

    2016-01-01

    The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Lithium-ion batteries is closely related to the capacity degeneration trajectories. Due to the self-charging and the capacity regeneration, the trajectories have the property of multimodality. Traditional prediction models such as the support vector machines (SVM) or the Gaussian Process regression (GPR) cannot accurately characterize this multimodality. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method based on the Gaussian Process Mixture (GPM). It can process multimodality by fitting different segments of trajectories with different GPR models separately, such that the tiny differences among these segments can be revealed. The method is demonstrated to be effective for prediction by the excellent predictive result of the experiments on the two commercial and chargeable Type 1850 Lithium-ion batteries, provided by NASA. The performance comparison among the models illustrates that the GPM is more accurate than the SVM and the GPR. In addition, GPM can yield the predictive confidence interval, which makes the prediction more reliable than that of traditional models. PMID:27632176

  14. Anisotropic Elastoplastic Damage Mechanics Method to Predict Fatigue Life of the Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualiang Wan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available New damage mechanics method is proposed to predict the low-cycle fatigue life of metallic structures under multiaxial loading. The microstructure mechanical model is proposed to simulate anisotropic elastoplastic damage evolution. As the micromodel depends on few material parameters, the present method is very concise and suitable for engineering application. The material parameters in damage evolution equation are determined by fatigue experimental data of standard specimens. By employing further development on the ANSYS platform, the anisotropic elastoplastic damage mechanics-finite element method is developed. The fatigue crack propagation life of satellite structure is predicted using the present method and the computational results comply with the experimental data very well.

  15. Basic traits predict the prevalence of personality disorder across the life span: the example of psychopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, David D; Lynam, Donald R; Widiger, Thomas A; Miller, Joshua D; McCrae, Robert R; Costa, Paul T

    2013-05-01

    Personality disorders (PDs) may be better understood in terms of dimensions of general personality functioning rather than as discrete categorical conditions. Personality-trait descriptions of PDs are robust across methods and settings, and PD assessments based on trait measures show good construct validity. The study reported here extends research showing that basic traits (e.g., impulsiveness, warmth, straightforwardness, modesty, and deliberation) can re-create the epidemiological characteristics associated with PDs. Specifically, we used normative changes in absolute trait levels to simulate age-related differences in the prevalence of psychopathy in a forensic setting. Results demonstrated that trait information predicts the rate of decline for psychopathy over the life span; discriminates the decline of psychopathy from that of a similar disorder, antisocial PD; and accurately predicts the differential decline of subfactors of psychopathy. These findings suggest that basic traits provide a parsimonious account of PD prevalence across the life span.

  16. The construction of life prediction models for the design of Stirling engine heater components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrovich, A.; Bright, A.; Cronin, M.; Arnold, S.

    1983-01-01

    The service life of Stirling-engine heater structures of Fe-based high-temperature alloys is predicted using a numerical model based on a linear-damage approach and published test data (engine test data for a Co-based alloy and tensile-test results for both the Co-based and the Fe-based alloys). The operating principle of the automotive Stirling engine is reviewed; the economic and technical factors affecting the choice of heater material are surveyed; the test results are summarized in tables and graphs; the engine environment and automotive duty cycle are characterized; and the modeling procedure is explained. It is found that the statistical scatter of the fatigue properties of the heater components needs to be reduced (by decreasing the porosity of the cast material or employing wrought material in fatigue-prone locations) before the accuracy of life predictions can be improved.

  17. International Space Station Bacteria Filter Element Post-Flight Testing and Service Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, J. L.; von Jouanne, R. G.; Turner, E. H.

    2003-01-01

    The International Space Station uses high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters to remove particulate matter from the cabin atmosphere. Known as Bacteria Filter Elements (BFEs), there are 13 elements deployed on board the ISS's U.S. Segment. The pre-flight service life prediction of 1 year for the BFEs is based upon performance engineering analysis of data collected during developmental testing that used a synthetic dust challenge. While this challenge is considered reasonable and conservative from a design perspective, an understanding of the actual filter loading is required to best manage the critical ISS Program resources. Thus testing was conducted on BFEs returned from the ISS to refine the service life prediction. Results from this testing and implications to ISS resource management are discussed. Recommendations for realizing significant savings to the ISS Program are presented.

  18. Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction of Bridge Cables Based on Multiscaling and Mesoscopic Fracture Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongxiang Liu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Fatigue fracture of bridge stay-cables is usually a multiscale process as the crack grows from micro-scale to macro-scale. Such a process, however, is highly uncertain. In order to make a rational prediction of the residual life of bridge cables, a probabilistic fatigue approach is proposed, based on a comprehensive vehicle load model, finite element analysis and multiscaling and mesoscopic fracture mechanics. Uncertainties in both material properties and external loads are considered. The proposed method is demonstrated through the fatigue life prediction of cables of the Runyang Cable-Stayed Bridge in China, and it is found that cables along the bridge spans may have significantly different fatigue lives, and due to the variability, some of them may have shorter lives than those as expected from the design.

  19. Reliability residual-life prediction method for thermal aging based on performance degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Shuhong; Xue Fei; Yu Weiwei; Ti Wenxin; Liu Xiaotian

    2013-01-01

    The paper makes the study of the nuclear power plant main pipeline. The residual-life of the main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging has been studied by the use of performance degradation theory and Bayesian updating methods. Firstly, the thermal aging impact property degradation process of the main pipeline austenitic stainless steel has been analyzed by the accelerated thermal aging test data. Then, the thermal aging residual-life prediction model based on the impact property degradation data is built by Bayesian updating methods. Finally, these models are applied in practical situations. It is shown that the proposed methods are feasible and the prediction accuracy meets the needs of the project. Also, it provides a foundation for the scientific management of aging management of the main pipeline. (authors)

  20. New considerations on variability of creep rupture data and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seon Jin; Jeong, Won Taek; Kong, Yu Sik

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the variability analysis of short term creep rupture test data based on the previous creep rupture tests and the possibility of the creep life prediction. From creep tests performed by constant uniaxial stresses at 600, 650 and 700 .deg. C elevated temperature, in order to investigate the variability of short-term creep rupture data, the creep curves were analyzed for normalized creep strain divided by initial strain. There are some variability in thee creep rupture data. And, the difference between general creep curves and normalized creep curves were obtained. The effects of the creep rupture time and state steady creep rate on the Weibull distribution parameters were investigated. There were good relation between normal Weibull parameters and normalized Weibull parameters. Finally, the predicted creep life were compared with the Monkman-Grant model.

  1. New Considerations on Variability of Creep Rupture Data and Life Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Won Taek; Kong, Yu Sik; Kim, Seon Jin

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the variability analysis of short term creep rupture test data based on the previous creep rupture tests and the possibility of the creep life prediction. From creep tests performed by constant uniaxial stresses at 600, 650 and 700 .deg. C elevated temperature, in order to investigate the variability of short-term creep rupture data, the creep curves were analyzed for normalized creep strain divided by initial strain. There are some variability in the creep rupture data. And, the difference between general creep curves and normalized creep curves were obtained. The effects of the creep rupture time (RT) and steady state creep rate (SSCR) on the Weibull distribution parameters were investigated. There were good relation between normal Weibull parameters and normalized Weibull parameters. Finally, the predicted creep life were compared with the Monkman-Grant model

  2. Korean Brain Aging Study for the Early Diagnosis and Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease: Methodology and Baseline Sample Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, Min Soo; Yi, Dahyun; Lee, Jun Ho; Choe, Young Min; Sohn, Bo Kyung; Lee, Jun-Young; Choi, Hyo Jung; Baek, Hyewon; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Lee, Yun-Sang; Sohn, Chul-Ho; Mook-Jung, Inhee; Choi, Murim; Lee, Yu Jin; Lee, Dong Woo; Ryu, Seung-Ho; Kim, Shin Gyeom; Kim, Jee Wook; Woo, Jong Inn; Lee, Dong Young

    2017-11-01

    The Korean Brain Aging Study for the Early Diagnosis and Prediction of Alzheimer's disease (KBASE) aimed to recruit 650 individuals, aged from 20 to 90 years, to search for new biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and to investigate how multi-faceted lifetime experiences and bodily changes contribute to the brain changes or brain pathologies related to the AD process. All participants received comprehensive clinical and neuropsychological evaluations, multi-modal brain imaging, including magnetic resonance imaging, magnetic resonance angiography, [ 11 C]Pittsburgh compound B-positron emission tomography (PET), and [ 18 F]fluorodeoxyglucose-PET, blood and genetic marker analyses at baseline, and a subset of participants underwent actigraph monitoring and completed a sleep diary. Participants are to be followed annually with clinical and neuropsychological assessments, and biannually with the full KBASE assessment, including neuroimaging and laboratory tests. As of March 2017, in total, 758 individuals had volunteered for this study. Among them, in total, 591 participants-291 cognitively normal (CN) old-aged individuals, 74 CN young- and middle-aged individuals, 139 individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 87 individuals with AD dementia (ADD)-were enrolled at baseline, after excluding 162 individuals. A subset of participants (n=275) underwent actigraph monitoring. The KBASE cohort is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study that recruited participants with a wide age range and a wide distribution of cognitive status (CN, MCI, and ADD) and it has several strengths in its design and methodologies. Details of the recruitment, study methodology, and baseline sample characteristics are described in this paper.

  3. Numerical analysis of rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway crossing

    OpenAIRE

    Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

    2015-01-01

    The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact. Material model accounting for elastic- plastic isotropic and kinematic hardening effects is adopted. The results from FE analysis are combined with J-S fatigue model that is based on critical plan...

  4. Long-term Creep Life Prediction for Type 316LN Stainless Steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Ryu, Woo Seog; Kim, Sung Ho; Lee, Chan Bok

    2007-01-01

    Since Sodium Fast Cooled Reactor (SFR) components are designed to be use for more than 30 years at a high temperature of 550 .deg. C, one of the most important properties of these components is the long term creep behavior. To accurately predict the long-term creep life of the components, it is essential to achieve reliable long-term test data beyond their design life. But, it is difficult to actually obtain long duration data because it is time-consuming work. So far, a variety of time-temperature parameters (TTPs) have been developed to predict a long-term creep life from shorter-time tests at higher temperatures. Among them, the Larson-Miller, the Orr-Sherby-Dorn, the Manson-Harferd and the Manson-Succop parameters have been typically used. None of these parameters has an overwhelming preference, and they have certain inherent restrictions imposed on their data in the application of the TTPs parameters. Meanwhile, it has been reported that the Minimum Commitment Method (MCM) proposed by Manson and Ensign has a greater flexibility for a creep rupture analysis. Thus, the MCM will be useful as another approach. Until now, the applicability of the MCM has not been investigated for type 316LN SS because of insufficient creep data. In this paper, the MCM was applied to predict a long-term creep life of type 316LN stainless steel (SS). Lots of creep rupture data was collected through literature surveys and the experimental data of KAERI. Using the short-term experimental data for under 2,000 hours, a longer-time rupture above 105 hours was predicted by the MCM at temperatures from 550 .deg. C to 800 .deg. C

  5. An Extrapolation of a Radical Equation More Accurately Predicts Shelf Life of Frozen Biological Matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vore, Karl W; Fatahi, Nadia M; Sass, John E

    2016-08-01

    Arrhenius modeling of analyte recovery at increased temperatures to predict long-term colder storage stability of biological raw materials, reagents, calibrators, and controls is standard practice in the diagnostics industry. Predicting subzero temperature stability using the same practice is frequently criticized but nevertheless heavily relied upon. We compared the ability to predict analyte recovery during frozen storage using 3 separate strategies: traditional accelerated studies with Arrhenius modeling, and extrapolation of recovery at 20% of shelf life using either ordinary least squares or a radical equation y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Computer simulations were performed to establish equivalence of statistical power to discern the expected changes during frozen storage or accelerated stress. This was followed by actual predictive and follow-up confirmatory testing of 12 chemistry and immunoassay analytes. Linear extrapolations tended to be the most conservative in the predicted percent recovery, reducing customer and patient risk. However, the majority of analytes followed a rate of change that slowed over time, which was fit best to a radical equation of the form y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Other evidence strongly suggested that the slowing of the rate was not due to higher-order kinetics, but to changes in the matrix during storage. Predicting shelf life of frozen products through extrapolation of early initial real-time storage analyte recovery should be considered the most accurate method. Although in this study the time required for a prediction was longer than a typical accelerated testing protocol, there are less potential sources of error, reduced costs, and a lower expenditure of resources. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  6. The Fatigue Life Prediction of Train Wheel Rims Containing Spherical Inclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yajie; Chen, Huanguo; Cai, Li; Chen, Pei; Qian, Jiacheng; Wu, Jianwei

    2018-03-01

    It is a common phenomenon that fatigue crack initiation occurs frequently in the inclusions of wheel rims. Research on the fatigue life of wheel rims with spherical inclusions is of great significance on the reliability of wheels. To find the danger point and working condition of a wheel, the stress state of the wheel rim with spherical inclusions was analyzed using the finite element method. Results revealed that curve conditions are dangerous. The critical plane method, based on the cumulative fatigue damage theory, was used to predict the fatigue life of the wheel rim and whether it contained spherical inclusions or not under curve conditions. It was found that the fatigue life of the wheel rim is significantly shorter when the wheel rim contains spherical inclusions. Analysis of the results can provide a theoretical basis and technical support for train operations and maintenance.

  7. Fatigue Life Analysis and Prediction of 316L Stainless Steel Under Low Cycle Fatigue Loading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Hyeong; Myung, NohJun; Choi, Nak-Sam [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    In this study, a strain-controlled fatigue test of widely-used 316L stainless steel with excellent corrosion resistance and mechanical properties was conducted, in order to assess its fatigue life. Low cycle fatigue behaviors were analyzed at room temperature, as a function of the strain amplitude and strain ratio. The material was hardened during the initial few cycles, and then was softened during the long post period, until failure occurred. The fatigue life decreased with increasing strain amplitude. Masing behavior in the hysteresis loop was shown under the low strain amplitude, whereas the high strain amplitude caused non-Masing behavior and reduced the mean stress. Low cycle fatigue life prediction based on the cyclic plastic energy dissipation theory, considering Masing and non-Masing effects, showed a good correlation with the experimental results.

  8. Prediction of fatigue life under service loading using the relative method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buch, A.

    1982-01-01

    Fatigue life estimates obtained with the local strain approach (LSA) and with the conventional nominal stress approach (NSA) were compared with experimental results obtained on notched AlCuMg2 aircraft material specimens with flight simulation random tensile loading. The effect of change of the reference stress, of the loading program and of some changes in the loading frequency distribution, on the ratio Nsub(exp)/Nsub(pred) was investigated. A material strain-life curve, a cyclic stress-strain curve. The Neuber-Topper rule Ksub(sigma) x Ksub(epsilon) = K 2 = const. and a K value estimated with an exact two-parameter notch factor formula for the case R = 0, N = 10 7 were used for life predictions. (orig./RW) [de

  9. Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J.M.; Middleton, C.J.; Aplin, P.F. [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

    1998-12-31

    This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

  10. [A predictive model for the quality of sexual life in hysterectomized women].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrutia, María Teresa; Araya, Alejandra; Rivera, Soledad; Viviani, Paola; Villarroel, Luis

    2007-03-01

    The effects of hysterectomy on sexuality has been extensively studied. To establish a model to predict the quality of sexual life in hysterectomized women, six months after surgery. Analytical, longitudinal and prospective study of 90 hysterectomized women aged 45+/-7 years. Two structured interviews at the time of surgery and six months later were carried out to determine the characteristics of sexuality and communication within the couple. In the two interviews, communication and the quality of sexual life were described as "good" in 72 and 77% of women, respectively (NS). The variables that had a 40% influence on the quality of sexual life sixth months after surgery, were oophorectomy status, the presence of orgasm, the characteristics of communication and the basal sexuality with the couple. The sexuality of the hysterectomized women will depend, on a great extent, of pre-surgical variables. Therefore, it is important to consider these variables for the education of hysterectomized women.

  11. Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J M; Middleton, C J; Aplin, P F [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

    1999-12-31

    This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

  12. Assessment and propagation of mechanical property uncertainties in fatigue life prediction of composite laminates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castro, Oscar; Branner, Kim; Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

    2018-01-01

    amplitude loading cycles. Fatigue life predictions of unidirectional and multi-directional glass/epoxy laminates are carried out to validate the proposed model against experimental data. The probabilistic fatigue behavior of laminates is analyzed under constant amplitude loading conditions as well as under......A probabilistic model for estimating the fatigue life of laminated composite materials considering the uncertainty in their mechanical properties is developed. The uncertainty in the material properties is determined from fatigue coupon tests. Based on this uncertainty, probabilistic constant life...... diagrams are developed which can efficiently estimate probabilistic É›-N curves at any load level and stress ratio. The probabilistic É›-N curve information is used in a reliability analysis for fatigue limit state proposed for estimating the probability of failure of composite laminates under variable...

  13. A New Energy-Critical Plane Damage Parameter for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng-Yong Yu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available As one of fracture critical components of an aircraft engine, accurate life prediction of a turbine blade to disk attachment is significant for ensuring the engine structural integrity and reliability. Fatigue failure of a turbine blade is often caused under multiaxial cyclic loadings at high temperatures. In this paper, considering different failure types, a new energy-critical plane damage parameter is proposed for multiaxial fatigue life prediction, and no extra fitted material constants will be needed for practical applications. Moreover, three multiaxial models with maximum damage parameters on the critical plane are evaluated under tension-compression and tension-torsion loadings. Experimental data of GH4169 under proportional and non-proportional fatigue loadings and a case study of a turbine disk-blade contact system are introduced for model validation. Results show that model predictions by Wang-Brown (WB and Fatemi-Socie (FS models with maximum damage parameters are conservative and acceptable. For the turbine disk-blade contact system, both of the proposed damage parameters and Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT model show reasonably acceptable correlations with its field number of flight cycles. However, life estimations of the turbine blade reveal that the definition of the maximum damage parameter is not reasonable for the WB model but effective for both the FS and SWT models.

  14. Factors predicting quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, N; Akkadechanunt, T; Chontawan, R; Klunklin, A

    2018-06-01

    This study examined the level of quality of work life and predictability of years of education, monthly income, years of experience, job stress, organizational commitment and work environment on quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals in the People's Republic of Bangladesh. There is an acute shortage of nurses worldwide including Bangladesh. Quality of work life is important for quality of patient care and nurse retention. Nurses in Bangladesh are fighting to provide quality care for emerging health problems for the achievement of sustainable development goals. We collected data from 288 randomly selected registered nurses, from six tertiary-level hospitals. All nurses were requested to fill questionnaire consisted of Demographic Data Sheet, Quality of Nursing Work Life Survey, Expanded Nursing Stress Scale, Questionnaire of Organizational Commitment and Practice Environment Scale of the Nursing Work Index. Data were analysed by descriptive statistics and multiple regression. The quality of work life as perceived by nurses in Bangladesh was at moderate level. Monthly income was found as the best predictor followed by work environment, organizational commitment and job stress. A higher monthly income helps nurses to fulfil their personal needs; positive work environment helps to provide quality care to the patients. Quality of work life and predictors measured by self-report only may not reflect the original picture of the quality of work life among nurses. Findings provide information for nursing and health policymakers to develop policies to improve quality of work life among nurses that can contribute to quality of nursing care. This includes the working environment, commitment to the organization and measures to reduce job stress. © 2017 International Council of Nurses.

  15. Predicting tool life in turning operations using neural networks and image processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikołajczyk, T.; Nowicki, K.; Bustillo, A.; Yu Pimenov, D.

    2018-05-01

    A two-step method is presented for the automatic prediction of tool life in turning operations. First, experimental data are collected for three cutting edges under the same constant processing conditions. In these experiments, the parameter of tool wear, VB, is measured with conventional methods and the same parameter is estimated using Neural Wear, a customized software package that combines flank wear image recognition and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Second, an ANN model of tool life is trained with the data collected from the first two cutting edges and the subsequent model is evaluated on two different subsets for the third cutting edge: the first subset is obtained from the direct measurement of tool wear and the second is obtained from the Neural Wear software that estimates tool wear using edge images. Although the complete-automated solution, Neural Wear software for tool wear recognition plus the ANN model of tool life prediction, presented a slightly higher error than the direct measurements, it was within the same range and can meet all industrial requirements. These results confirm that the combination of image recognition software and ANN modelling could potentially be developed into a useful industrial tool for low-cost estimation of tool life in turning operations.

  16. How do Major, Violent and Nonviolent Opposition Campaigns, Impact Predicted Life Expectancy at birth?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Stoddard

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This study compared the effects of major violent and nonviolent opposition campaigns for regime change, on predicted life expectancy at birth. The study measured life expectancy five and ten years after the campaign ended, so that deaths which occurred during the campaign would not be included in the metric, and thus enabling the study of changes made in the state on the social determinants affecting longevity, after the campaign was over. Life expectancy is one of the best reported World Development Indicators and is considered to be a good indication of the overall health and general living conditions of the state and therefore is an ideal indicator to reflect the changes made in the state following a major campaign. The results of this analysis showed that states have a hard time recovering from a major opposition campaign and initially drop behind the growth trend in the world average for predicted life expectancy at birth. But, the type of campaign that was waged and whether it was successful, greatly affects the state’s ability to recover. Encouragingly by a decade after the campaign ends, states that experienced a nonviolent campaign that was successful had caught up to the world average and inched ahead of it. This shows that on this important development indicator, new governments that were ushered into power by nonviolent social movements, had made positive changes in the state that enabled it to surpass world averages.

  17. Methodological Aspects of Subjective Life Expectancy: Effects of Culture-Specific Reporting Heterogeneity Among Older Adults in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunghee; Smith, Jacqui

    2016-05-01

    Subjective life expectancy (SLE) has been suggested as a predictor of mortality and mortality-related behaviors. Although critical for culturally diverse societies, these findings do not consider cross-cultural methodological comparability. Culture-specific reporting heterogeneity is a well-known phenomenon introducing biases, and research on this issue with SLE is not established. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined reporting heterogeneity in SLE focusing on item nonresponse, focal points, and reports over time for five ethnic-cultural groups: non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, non-Hispanic other races, English-interviewed Hispanics, and Spanish-interviewed Hispanics. On item nonresponse, Spanish-interviewed Hispanics said, "I don't know," to SLE significantly more than any other groups. Nearly half of the respondents chose 0, 50, or 100, making them focal points. However, the focal points differed: 50 for Whites, 100 for Blacks, and 0 for Spanish-interviewed Hispanics. The relationship of SLE measured at two time points was higher for Whites than minorities. Moreover, those who said "I don't know" to SLE showed higher subsequent mortality than those who gave an answer. SLE was not a significant mortality predictor for Hispanics. Overall, SLE is not free from culture-specific reporting heterogeneity. This warrants further research about its culture-relevant measurement mechanisms. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. The development of techniques for determining the residual life time prediction on NPP equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonov, Alexander V.; Dagaev, Alexander V.; Volnikov, Ivan S.

    1999-01-01

    The problem of determining the residual life prediction of NPP equipment is presently highly pressing. NPP residual life resources are 30 years, but for particular equipment it is much less. Thus, residual life resource for equipment of control and protection system of NPP unit is 5-10 years. The NPP equipment is expensive and its replacing requires much expense. Hence an urgent problem is to study residual life resources of equipment on the basis of statistic information obtained during operation. Deterministic approach of determining residual life resources for particular equipment is widely known in the literature. Physical and statistical models are also being developed for determining the residual life, e.g. the model (loading-bearing capability). The present work offers the techniques of the residual life determination reasoning from statistic information of functioning objects in the process of operation. To put the techniques into effect it is necessary to have information about the time of operation of a group of objects of the same type, the number of failures; it is desirable to know failure operating time, order of the object replacement and the reason which caused the replacement (failure or planned preventive maintenance). Metrics is based on studying the parameters for the series of failures resulted from real statistic data. Then we can proceed to distribution density of the failure working time. For this purpose the Voltarra's equation of the second order is solved f(t) = ω(t) + ∫ 0 t f(t - τ)ω(τ)dτ. Since statistics of data sampling related to failure is small due to difficulties in solution of Voltaire's equation, the authors offer moderate method of solution for the above equation. After distribution density of the failure working time is determined the calculation of equipment residual life is made by the following formula: T τ (t) 1/P(τ)∫ 0 ∞ P(t)dt. The proposed techniques are realised as the software. In the course of working

  19. STRAPS v1.0: evaluating a methodology for predicting electron impact ionisation mass spectra for the aerosol mass spectrometer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O. Topping

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Our ability to model the chemical and thermodynamic processes that lead to secondary organic aerosol (SOA formation is thought to be hampered by the complexity of the system. While there are fundamental models now available that can simulate the tens of thousands of reactions thought to take place, validation against experiments is highly challenging. Techniques capable of identifying individual molecules such as chromatography are generally only capable of quantifying a subset of the material present, making it unsuitable for a carbon budget analysis. Integrative analytical methods such as the Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS are capable of quantifying all mass, but because of their inability to isolate individual molecules, comparisons have been limited to simple data products such as total organic mass and the O : C ratio. More detailed comparisons could be made if more of the mass spectral information could be used, but because a discrete inversion of AMS data is not possible, this activity requires a system of predicting mass spectra based on molecular composition. In this proof-of-concept study, the ability to train supervised methods to predict electron impact ionisation (EI mass spectra for the AMS is evaluated. Supervised Training Regression for the Arbitrary Prediction of Spectra (STRAPS is not built from first principles. A methodology is constructed whereby the presence of specific mass-to-charge ratio (m∕z channels is fitted as a function of molecular structure before the relative peak height for each channel is similarly fitted using a range of regression methods. The widely used AMS mass spectral database is used as a basis for this, using unit mass resolution spectra of laboratory standards. Key to the fitting process is choice of structural information, or molecular fingerprint. Our approach relies on using supervised methods to automatically optimise the relationship between spectral characteristics and these molecular

  20. STRAPS v1.0: evaluating a methodology for predicting electron impact ionisation mass spectra for the aerosol mass spectrometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, David O.; Allan, James; Rami Alfarra, M.; Aumont, Bernard

    2017-06-01

    Our ability to model the chemical and thermodynamic processes that lead to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation is thought to be hampered by the complexity of the system. While there are fundamental models now available that can simulate the tens of thousands of reactions thought to take place, validation against experiments is highly challenging. Techniques capable of identifying individual molecules such as chromatography are generally only capable of quantifying a subset of the material present, making it unsuitable for a carbon budget analysis. Integrative analytical methods such as the Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) are capable of quantifying all mass, but because of their inability to isolate individual molecules, comparisons have been limited to simple data products such as total organic mass and the O : C ratio. More detailed comparisons could be made if more of the mass spectral information could be used, but because a discrete inversion of AMS data is not possible, this activity requires a system of predicting mass spectra based on molecular composition. In this proof-of-concept study, the ability to train supervised methods to predict electron impact ionisation (EI) mass spectra for the AMS is evaluated. Supervised Training Regression for the Arbitrary Prediction of Spectra (STRAPS) is not built from first principles. A methodology is constructed whereby the presence of specific mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) channels is fitted as a function of molecular structure before the relative peak height for each channel is similarly fitted using a range of regression methods. The widely used AMS mass spectral database is used as a basis for this, using unit mass resolution spectra of laboratory standards. Key to the fitting process is choice of structural information, or molecular fingerprint. Our approach relies on using supervised methods to automatically optimise the relationship between spectral characteristics and these molecular fingerprints. Therefore

  1. Prediction of Combine Economic Life Based on Repair and Maintenance Costs Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Rohani

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Farm machinery managers often need to make complex economic decisions on machinery replacement. Repair and maintenance costs can have significant impacts on this economic decision. The farm manager must be able to predict farm machinery repair and maintenance costs. This study aimed to identify a regression model that can adequately represent the repair and maintenance costs in terms of machine age in cumulative hours of use. The regression model has the ability to predict the repair and maintenance costs for longer time periods. Therefore, it can be used for the estimation of the economic life. The study was conducted using field data collected from 11 John-Deer 955 combine harvesters used in several western provinces of Iran. It was found that power model has a better performance for the prediction of combine repair and maintenance costs. The results showed that the optimum replacement age of John-Deer 955 combine was 54300 cumulative hours.

  2. Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Gas Turbine Engine using Autoregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahsan Shazaib

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Gas turbine (GT engines are known for their high availability and reliability and are extensively used for power generation, marine and aero-applications. Maintenance of such complex machines should be done proactively to reduce cost and sustain high availability of the GT. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of autoregressive (AR models to predict remaining useful life (RUL of a GT engine. The Turbofan Engine data from NASA benchmark data repository is used as case study. The parametric investigation is performed to check on any effect of changing model parameter on modelling accuracy. Results shows that a single sensory data cannot accurately predict RUL of GT and further research need to be carried out by incorporating multi-sensory data. Furthermore, the predictions made using AR model seems to give highly pessimistic values for RUL of GT.

  3. RandomForest4Life: a Random Forest for predicting ALS disease progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hothorn, Torsten; Jung, Hans H

    2014-09-01

    We describe a method for predicting disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. The method was developed as a submission to the DREAM Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life Challenge of summer 2012. Based on repeated patient examinations over a three- month period, we used a random forest algorithm to predict future disease progression. The procedure was set up and internally evaluated using data from 1197 ALS patients. External validation by an expert jury was based on undisclosed information of an additional 625 patients; all patient data were obtained from the PRO-ACT database. In terms of prediction accuracy, the approach described here ranked third best. Our interpretation of the prediction model confirmed previous reports suggesting that past disease progression is a strong predictor of future disease progression measured on the ALS functional rating scale (ALSFRS). We also found that larger variability in initial ALSFRS scores is linked to faster future disease progression. The results reported here furthermore suggested that approaches taking the multidimensionality of the ALSFRS into account promise some potential for improved ALS disease prediction.

  4. A novel health indicator for on-line lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yapeng; Huang, Miaohua; Chen, Yupu; Tao, Ye

    2016-07-01

    Prediction of lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life (RUL) plays an important role in an intelligent battery management system. The capacity and internal resistance are often used as the batteries health indicator (HI) for quantifying degradation and predicting RUL. However, on-line measurement of capacity and internal resistance are hardly realizable due to the not fully charged and discharged condition and the extremely expensive cost, respectively. Therefore, there is a great need to find an optional way to deal with this plight. In this work, a novel HI is extracted from the operating parameters of lithium-ion batteries for degradation modeling and RUL prediction. Moreover, Box-Cox transformation is employed to improve HI performance. Then Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses are utilized to evaluate the similarity between real capacity and the estimated capacity derived from the HI. Next, both simple statistical regression technique and optimized relevance vector machine are employed to predict the RUL based on the presented HI. The correlation analyses and prediction results show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed HI for battery degradation modeling and RUL prediction.

  5. Method for estimating capacity and predicting remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Chao; Jain, Gaurav; Tamirisa, Prabhakar; Gorka, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction. • A state projection scheme is derived for capacity estimation. • The Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used for the RUL prediction. • Results with 10 years’ continuous cycling data verify the effectiveness of the method. - Abstract: Reliability of lithium-ion (Li-ion) rechargeable batteries used in implantable medical devices has been recognized as of high importance from a broad range of stakeholders, including medical device manufacturers, regulatory agencies, physicians, and patients. To ensure Li-ion batteries in these devices operate reliably, it is important to be able to assess the capacity of Li-ion battery and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) throughout the whole life-time. This paper presents an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction of Li-ion battery used in implantable medical devices. A state projection scheme from the author’s previous study is used for the capacity estimation. Then, based on the capacity estimates, the Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used to project the capacity fade to the end-of-service (EOS) value (or the failure limit) for the RUL prediction. Results of 10 years’ continuous cycling test on Li-ion prismatic cells in the lab suggest that the proposed method achieves good accuracy in the capacity estimation and captures the uncertainty in the RUL prediction. Post-explant weekly cycling data obtained from field cells with 4–7 implant years further verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in the capacity estimation

  6. Do Proxies for the Neurotransmitter Cortisol Predict Adaptation to Life with Chronic Pain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deamond, Wade

    Among the numerous difficulties encountered by chronic pain patients, impulsive and dysfunctional decision-making complicate their already difficult life situations yet remains relatively understudied. This study examined a recently published neurobiological decision making model that identifies eight specific neurotransmitters and hormones (Dopamine, Testosterone, Endogenous Opioids Glutamate, Serotonin, Norepinephrine, Cortisol, and GABA) linked to unsound decision making related to cognitive, motivational and emotional dysregulation (Nussbaum et al., 2011) (see Appendix 2). The Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), a proxy for the cortisol element in the pharmacological decision making model was analyzed for the neurotransmitter's relationship to functionality and quality of life in a group of 37 chronic pain patients. Participants were comprised of males and females ranging from 23 to 52 years of age and were classified with respect to levels of adjustment to living with chronic pain based on the Quality of Life Scale (QLS), the Dartmouth WONCA COOP Charts and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF). The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Frontal System Behavioral Scale (FSBS) measured decision making related to immediate gratification and daily living respectively. Results suggest that emotional dysregulation, as measured by the PSS is a significant predictor for adaptation to life with chronic pain and the PSS is superior to predicting adaptation to life with chronic pain than reported levels of pain as measured by the McGill Pain Questionnaire.

  7. Methodological Approach for the Sustainability Assessment of Development Cooperation Projects for Built Innovations Based on the SDGs and Life Cycle Thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie D. Maier

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a methodological approach for a sustainability assessment of development cooperation projects. Between the scientific disciplines there is no agreement on the term of “sustainability”. Whereas the definition of sustainability within the context of development cooperation frequently highlights the long-term success of an intervention, the United Nations herald the inclusion of social, economic and environmental aspects. This paper proposes to bridge this gap by providing an analytical framework that uses nine impact category groups based on thematic priorities of sustainable development derived from the Sustainable Development Goals. Additionally, the long-term effectiveness of a project is taken into consideration. These impact category groups comprise the analytical framework, which is investigated by the Life Cycle Assessment and an indicator-based analysis. These data are obtained through empirical social research and the LCA inventory. The underlying concept is based on life cycle thinking. Taking up a multi-cycle model this study establishes two life cycles: first, the project management life cycle; and, second, the life cycle of a project’s innovation. The innovation’s life cycle is identified to have the greatest impact on the target region and the local people and is consequently of primary interest. This methodological approach enables an ex-post sustainability assessment of a built innovation of a development cooperation project and is tested on a case study on Improved Cooking Stoves in Bangladesh.

  8. Prediction of material removal rate and surface roughness for wire electrical discharge machining of nickel using response surface methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thangam Chinnadurai

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on investigating the effects of process parameters, namely, Peak current (Ip, Pulse on time (Ton, Pulse off time (Toff, Water pressure (Wp, Wire feed rate (Wf, Wire tension (Wt, Servo voltage (Sv and Servo feed setting (Sfs, on the Material Removal Rate (MRR and Surface Roughness (SR for Wire electrical discharge machining (Wire-EDM of nickel using Taguchi method. Response Surface Methodology (RSM is adopted to evolve mathematical relationships between the wire cutting process parameters and the output variables of the weld joint to determine the welding input parameters that lead to the desired optimal wire cutting quality. Besides, using response surface plots, the interaction effects of process parameters on the responses are analyzed and discussed. The statistical software Mini-tab is used to establish the design and to obtain the regression equations. The developed mathematical models are tested by analysis-of-variance (ANOVA method to check their appropriateness and suitability. Finally, a comparison is made between measured and calculated results, which are in good agreement. This indicates that the developed models can predict the responses accurately and precisely within the limits of cutting parameter being used.

  9. Prediction of material removal rate and surface roughness for wire electrical discharge machining of nickel using response surface methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chinnadurai, T.; Vendan, S.A.

    2016-01-01

    This study focuses on investigating the effects of process parameters, namely, Peak current (Ip), Pulse on time (Ton), Pulse off time (Toff), Water pressure (Wp), Wire feed rate (Wf), Wire tension (Wt), Servo voltage (Sv) and Servo feed setting (Sfs), on the Material Removal Rate (MRR) and Surface Roughness (SR) for Wire electrical discharge machining (Wire-EDM) of nickel using Taguchi method. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is adopted to evolve mathematical relationships between the wire cutting process parameters and the output variables of the weld joint to determine the welding input parameters that lead to the desired optimal wire cutting quality. Besides, using response surface plots, the interaction effects of process parameters on the responses are analyzed and discussed. The statistical software Mini-tab is used to establish the design and to obtain the regression equations. The developed mathematical models are tested by analysis-of-variance (ANOVA) method to check their appropriateness and suitability. Finally, a comparison is made between measured and calculated results, which are in good agreement. This indicates that the developed models can predict the responses accurately and precisely within the limits of cutting parameter being used. (Author)

  10. Prediction of material removal rate and surface roughness for wire electrical discharge machining of nickel using response surface methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chinnadurai, T.; Vendan, S.A.

    2016-07-01

    This study focuses on investigating the effects of process parameters, namely, Peak current (Ip), Pulse on time (Ton), Pulse off time (Toff), Water pressure (Wp), Wire feed rate (Wf), Wire tension (Wt), Servo voltage (Sv) and Servo feed setting (Sfs), on the Material Removal Rate (MRR) and Surface Roughness (SR) for Wire electrical discharge machining (Wire-EDM) of nickel using Taguchi method. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is adopted to evolve mathematical relationships between the wire cutting process parameters and the output variables of the weld joint to determine the welding input parameters that lead to the desired optimal wire cutting quality. Besides, using response surface plots, the interaction effects of process parameters on the responses are analyzed and discussed. The statistical software Mini-tab is used to establish the design and to obtain the regression equations. The developed mathematical models are tested by analysis-of-variance (ANOVA) method to check their appropriateness and suitability. Finally, a comparison is made between measured and calculated results, which are in good agreement. This indicates that the developed models can predict the responses accurately and precisely within the limits of cutting parameter being used. (Author)

  11. Mechanical behavior and wear prediction of stir cast Al–TiB2 composites using response surface methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suresh, S.; Shenbaga Vinayaga Moorthi, N.; Vettivel, S.C.; Selvakumar, N.

    2014-01-01

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • Various experiments were conducted on Al6061–TiB 2 composite. • XRD and EDS studies confirm the crystalline size and elements present. • SEM, EDS and OM observations were used to study the characteristics. • Curve fitting and RSM design methods are effectively used to develop the model. - Abstract: Al6061 was reinforced with various percentages of TiB 2 particles by using high energy stir casting method. The characterization was performed through X-ray Diffraction, Energy Dispersive Spectrum and Scanning Electron Microscope. The mechanical behaviors such as hardness, tensile strength and tribological behavior were investigated. Wear experiments were conducted by using a pin-on-disc wear tester at varying load. The curve fitting technique was used to develop the respective polynomial and power law equations. The wear mechanism of the specimen was studied through SEM. Response Surface Methodology was used to minimize the number of experimental conditions and develop the mathematical models between the key process parameters namely weight percentage of TiB 2 , load and sliding distance. Analysis of Variance technique was applied to check the validity of the developed model. The mathematical model developed for the specific wear rate was predicted at 99.5% confidence level and some useful conclusions were made

  12. Flexural fatigue life prediction of closed hat-section using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzaq, Zia

    1989-01-01

    Straight or curved hat-section members are often used as structural stiffeners in aircraft. For instance, they are employed as stiffeners for the dorsal skin as well as in the aerial refueling adjacent area structure in F-106 aircraft. The flanges of the hat-section are connected to the aircraft skin. Thus, the portion of the skin closing the hat-section interacts with the section itself when resisting the stresses due to service loads. The flexural fatigue life of such a closed section is estimated using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics. It should be recognized that when a structural shape is subjected to bending, the fatigue life at the neutral axis is infinity since the normal stresses are zero at that location. Conversely, the fatigue life at the extreme fibers where the normal bending stresses are maximum can be expected to be finite. Thus, different fatigue life estimates can be visualized at various distances from the neural axis. The problem becomes compounded further when significant portions away from the neutral axis are stressed into plastic range. A theoretical analysis of the closed hat-section subjected to flexural cyclic loading is first conducted. The axial fatigue characteristics together with the related axial fatigue life formula and its inverted form given by Manson and Muralidharan are adopted for an aluminum alloy used in aircraft construction. A closed-form expression for predicting the flexural fatigue life is then derived for the closed hat-section including materially nonlinear action. A computer program is written to conduct a study of the variables such as the thicknesses of the hat-section and the skin, and the type of alloy used. The study has provided a fundamental understanding of the flexural fatigue life characteristics of a practical structural component used in aircraft when materially nonlinear action is present.

  13. Predicting the life-time benefit of school-based smoking prevention programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Aveyard, Paul; Barton, Pelham; Meads, Catherine A

    2010-06-01

    School-based smoking prevention programmes may delay the age of smoking initiation, but do not appear to achieve lasting reductions in smoking prevalence beyond school-leaving age. We explored whether delaying the age at which someone initiates smoking may have life-time benefits by increasing the likelihood of quitting in later life. Data from the General Household Survey of Great Britain were used in a logistic regression model to examine the association between age at which someone initiates regular smoking and the probability that the person will quit smoking later in life. The effect of confounding variables (sex, ethnicity, socio-economic class, education and geographical location) was taken into account. The predicted relationship was used in a cohort model to estimate the life-time reduction in smoking prevalence and all-cause mortality of a school-based smoking prevention programme. Age of regular smoking initiation was associated strongly with the probability of quitting later in life (coefficient -0.103, P < 0.001). The strength of the association was slightly reduced but still significant when confounding variables were included (coefficient -0.075, P < 0.001). An intervention that delays smoking initiation without decreasing smoking prevalence at age 18 may reduce adult smoking prevalence by 0.13-0.32% (depending on age) and all-cause mortality by 0.09% over the life-time of the sample. School-based smoking prevention programmes have potential for a beneficial effect over the life-time of the participants even if they have no apparent effect at school-leaving age.

  14. Fatigue, fracture, and life prediction criteria for composite materials in magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, F.M.G.

    1990-06-01

    An explosively-bonded copper/Inconel 718/copper laminate conductor was proposed to withstand the severe face compression stresses in the central core of the Alcator C-MOD tokamak toroidal field (TF) magnet. Due to the severe duty of the TF magnet, it is critical that an accurate estimate of useful life be determined. As part of the effort to formulate an appropriate life prediction, fatigue crack growth experiments were performed on the laminate as well as its components. Metallographic evaluation of the laminate interface revealed many shear bands in the Inconel 718. Shear bands and shear band cracks were produced in the Inconel 718 as a result of the explosion bonding process. These shear bands were shown to have a detrimental effect on the crack growth behavior of the laminate, by significantly reducing the load carrying capability of the reinforcement layer and providing for easy crack propagation paths. Fatigue crack growth rate was found not only to be dependent on temperature but also on orientation. Fatigue cracks grew faster in directions which contained shear bands in the plane of the propagating crack. Fractography showed crack advancement by fatigue cracking in the Inconel 718 and ductile tearing of the copper at the interface. However, further away from the interfaces, the copper exhibited fatigue striations indicating that cracks were now propagating by fatigue. Laminate life prediction results showed a strong dependence on shear band orientation, and exhibited little variation between room temperature and 77 degree K. Predicted life of this laminate was lower when the crack propagation was along a shear band than when crack propagation was across the shear bands. Shear bands appear to have a dominating effect on crack growth behavior

  15. Methodology Proposal for Increasing Swift Trust within Virtual Teams in the Inception Phase of a Project Life-Cycle: Project Manager’s Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milovanović Bojan Morić

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes team building methodology for project managers in virtual teams as means to develop swift trust between new team members in the inception phase of the project life cycle. Proposed methodology encompasses activities within the first three days after the team formation and proposes the measuring tools for monitoring and managing trust development within the project team. Aim of this paper is to provide new insights to various decision makers potentially interested in increasing the performance of project teams operating in virtual environment, such as: investors, business owners and project managers working in virtual environment.

  16. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Lundholm

    Full Text Available Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that

  17. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundholm, Jeremy; Heim, Amy; Tran, Stephanie; Smith, Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth) to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies) for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that favor less

  18. Life prediction for high temperature low cycle fatigue of two kinds of titanium alloys based on exponential function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, G. Y.; Mi, X. Z.; Wang, F.

    2018-01-01

    The high temperature low cycle fatigue tests of TC4 titanium alloy and TC11 titanium alloy are carried out under strain controlled. The relationships between cyclic stress-life and strain-life are analyzed. The high temperature low cycle fatigue life prediction model of two kinds of titanium alloys is established by using Manson-Coffin method. The relationship between failure inverse number and plastic strain range presents nonlinear in the double logarithmic coordinates. Manson-Coffin method assumes that they have linear relation. Therefore, there is bound to be a certain prediction error by using the Manson-Coffin method. In order to solve this problem, a new method based on exponential function is proposed. The results show that the fatigue life of the two kinds of titanium alloys can be predicted accurately and effectively by using these two methods. Prediction accuracy is within ±1.83 times scatter zone. The life prediction capability of new methods based on exponential function proves more effective and accurate than Manson-Coffin method for two kinds of titanium alloys. The new method based on exponential function can give better fatigue life prediction results with the smaller standard deviation and scatter zone than Manson-Coffin method. The life prediction results of two methods for TC4 titanium alloy prove better than TC11 titanium alloy.

  19. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean [Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon [Korea Railroad Research Institute, Uiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-01-15

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  20. A method for gear fatigue life prediction considering the internal flow field of the gear pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Haidong; Li, Zhiqiang; Qi, Lele; Qiao, Liang

    2018-01-01

    Gear pump is the most widely used volume type hydraulic pump, and it is the main power source of the hydraulic system. Its performance is influenced by many factors, such as working environment, maintenance, fluid pressure and so on. It is different from the gear transmission system, the internal flow field of gear pump has a greater impact on the gear life, therefore it needs to consider the internal hydraulic system when predicting the gear fatigue life. In this paper, a certain aircraft gear pump as the research object, aim at the typical failure forms, gear contact fatigue, of gear pump, proposing the prediction method based on the virtual simulation. The method use CFD (Computational fluid dynamics) software to analyze pressure distribution of internal flow field of the gear pump, and constructed the unidirectional flow-solid coupling model of gear to acquire the contact stress of tooth surface on Ansys workbench software. Finally, employing nominal stress method and Miner cumulative damage theory to calculated the gear contact fatigue life based on modified material P-S-N curve. Engineering practice show that the method is feasible and efficient.

  1. Degradation model and application in life prediction of rotating-mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Yuhui

    2009-01-01

    The degradation data can provide additional information beyond that provided by the failure observations, both sets of observations need to be considered when doing inference on the statistical parameters of the product and system lifetime distributions. By the degradation model showing the wear out failure, the predicted results of mechanism life is more accurate. Strength is one of the important capabilities of the rotating mechanism. In this paper, the degradation data of strength are described as a stochastic process model. Accelerated tests expose the products to greater environmental stress levels so that we can obtain lifetime and degradation measurements in a more timely fashion. Using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimation (BLUE) Method, the parameters under the degradation path were estimated from the accelerated life test (ALT) data of the rotating mechanism. Based on solving the singularity of degradation equation, at any time the reliability is estimated by the using the strength-stress interference theory. So we can predict the life of the rotating mechanism. (authors)

  2. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean; Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon

    2015-01-01

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  3. Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliffe Steve

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287. Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health, or not (less than full health, was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing

  4. Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

    2015-05-01

    Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

  5. Predicting employment status and subjective quality of life in patients with schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruo Fujino

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Although impaired social functioning, particularly poor employment status, is a cardinal feature of patients with schizophrenia and leads to decreased quality of life (QOL, few studies have addressed the relationship between these two clinical issues. The aim of this study was to determine whether employment status predicts subjective QOL and to evaluate a model in which functional capacity mediates the relationship between general cognitive performance and employment status. Ninety-three patients with schizophrenia were administered a comprehensive battery of cognitive tests, the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief version (UPSA-B, the Social Functioning Scale (SFS, and the Subjective Quality of Life Scale (SQLS. First, we evaluated a model for predicting the employment/occupation subscale score of the SFS using path analysis, and the model fitted well (χ2 (4 = 3.6, p = 0.46; CFI = 1.0; RMSEA < 0.001, with 90% CIs: 0–0.152. Employment status was predicted by negative symptoms and functional capacity, which was in turn predicted by general cognitive performance. Second, we added subjective QOL to this model. In a final path model, QOL was predicted by negative symptoms and employment status. This model also satisfied good fit criteria (χ2 (7 = 10.3, p = 0.17; CFI = 0.987; RMSEA = 0.072, with 90% CIs: 0–0.159. The UPSA-B and SFS scores were moderately correlated with most measures of cognitive performance. These results support the notion that better employment status enhances subjective QOL in patients with schizophrenia.

  6. A comprehensive energy approach to predict fatigue life in CuAlBe shape memory alloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sameallah, S; Kadkhodaei, M; Legrand, V; Saint-Sulpice, L; Arbab Chirani, S

    2015-01-01

    Stabilized dissipated energy is an effective parameter on the fatigue life of shape memory alloys (SMAs). In this study, a formula is proposed to directly evaluate the stabilized dissipated energy for different values of the maximum and minimum applied stresses, as well as the loading frequency, under cyclic tensile loadings. To this aim, a one-dimensional fully coupled thermomechanical constitutive model and a cycle-dependent phase diagram are employed to predict the uniaxial stress-strain response of an SMA in a specified cycle, including the stabilized one, with no need of obtaining the responses of the previous cycles. An enhanced phase diagram in which different slopes are defined for the start and finish of a backward transformation strip is also proposed to enable the capture of gradual transformations in a CuAlBe shape memory alloy. It is shown that the present approach is capable of reproducing the experimental responses of CuAlBe specimens under cyclic tensile loadings. An explicit formula is further presented to predict the fatigue life of CuAlBe as a function of the maximum and minimum applied stresses as well as the loading frequency. Fatigue tests are also carried out, and this formula is verified against the empirically predicted number of cycles for failure. (paper)

  7. A comprehensive energy approach to predict fatigue life in CuAlBe shape memory alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sameallah, S.; Legrand, V.; Saint-Sulpice, L.; Kadkhodaei, M.; Arbab Chirani, S.

    2015-02-01

    Stabilized dissipated energy is an effective parameter on the fatigue life of shape memory alloys (SMAs). In this study, a formula is proposed to directly evaluate the stabilized dissipated energy for different values of the maximum and minimum applied stresses, as well as the loading frequency, under cyclic tensile loadings. To this aim, a one-dimensional fully coupled thermomechanical constitutive model and a cycle-dependent phase diagram are employed to predict the uniaxial stress-strain response of an SMA in a specified cycle, including the stabilized one, with no need of obtaining the responses of the previous cycles. An enhanced phase diagram in which different slopes are defined for the start and finish of a backward transformation strip is also proposed to enable the capture of gradual transformations in a CuAlBe shape memory alloy. It is shown that the present approach is capable of reproducing the experimental responses of CuAlBe specimens under cyclic tensile loadings. An explicit formula is further presented to predict the fatigue life of CuAlBe as a function of the maximum and minimum applied stresses as well as the loading frequency. Fatigue tests are also carried out, and this formula is verified against the empirically predicted number of cycles for failure.

  8. Monitoring Shelf Life of Pasteurized Whole Milk Under Refrigerated Storage Conditions: Predictive Models for Quality Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziyaina, Mohamed; Govindan, Byju N; Rasco, Barbara; Coffey, Todd; Sablani, Shyam S

    2018-02-01

    The shelf life of pasteurized milk is generally determined through microbiological analysis. The objective of this study was to correlate microbial quality parameters then to design predictive models for shelf life of pasteurized milk. We analyzed pasteurized milk (3.9% fat) for aerobic plate counts (APCs), psychrotrophic bacteria counts (PBCs), and Bacillus spp. counts at 5, 7, 10, 13, 15, and 19 (±1 °C) to the end of storage time. We also monitored titratable acidity, pH, and, lipase, and protease activity and correlated this with APC, which is the principal index defining shelf life. Results indicate that the shelf life of pasteurized milk was 24, 36, and 72 h at 19, 15, and 13 °C respectively, as determined by APC and acidity indicators. However, milk stored at lower temperatures of 5, 7, and 10 °C had longer shelf life of 30, 24, and 12 d, respectively. A sharp increase in titratable acidity, while decrease pH were observed when APCs reached 5.0 log 10 CFU/mL at all storage temperatures. Lipase and protease activities increased with storage temperature. At 5 and 7 °C, however, protease activity was very low. Therefore, we eliminated this parameter from our quality parameters as a potential spoilage indicator. Findings of this research are useful for monitoring the quality of commercial pasteurized milk, particularly in locations where environmental conditions make longer storage difficult. The study also provides valuable information for development of colorimetric shelf life indicators. © 2018 Institute of Food Technologists®.

  9. Alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction predict motivation to change among mandated college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diulio, Andrea R; Cero, Ian; Witte, Tracy K; Correia, Christopher J

    2014-04-01

    The present study investigated the role specific types of alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction play in predicting motivation to change alcohol use. Participants were 548 college students mandated to complete a brief intervention following an alcohol-related policy violation. Using hierarchical multiple regression, we tested for the presence of interaction and quadratic effects on baseline data collected prior to the intervention. A significant interaction indicated that the relationship between a respondent's personal consequences and his/her motivation to change differs depending upon the level of concurrent social consequences. Additionally quadratic effects for abuse/dependence symptoms and life satisfaction were found. The quadratic probes suggest that abuse/dependence symptoms and poor life satisfaction are both positively associated with motivation to change for a majority of the sample; however, the nature of these relationships changes for participants with more extreme scores. Results support the utility of using a multidimensional measure of alcohol related problems and assessing non-linear relationships when assessing predictors of motivation to change. The results also suggest that the best strategies for increasing motivation may vary depending on the types of alcohol-related problems and level of life satisfaction the student is experiencing and highlight potential directions for future research. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Neuroticism and Extraversion in Youth Predict Mental Wellbeing and Life Satisfaction 40 Years Later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Catharine R; Booth, Tom; Mõttus, René; Kuh, Diana; Deary, Ian J

    2014-01-01

    Neuroticism and Extraversion are linked with current wellbeing, but it is unclear whether these traits in youth predict wellbeing decades later. We applied structural equation modelling to data from 4583 people from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. We examined the effects of Neuroticism and Extraversion at ages 16 and 26 years on mental wellbeing and life satisfaction at age 60-64 and explored the mediating roles of psychological and physical health. Extraversion had direct, positive effects on both measures of wellbeing. The impact of Neuroticism on both wellbeing and life satisfaction was largely indirect through susceptibility to psychological distress and physical health problems. Personality dispositions in youth have enduring influence on wellbeing assessed about forty years later. PMID:24563560

  11. The Role of Big Five Personality Factors and Defense Mechanisms in Predicting Quality of Life in Sexually Dysfunctional Female Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. salary

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sexual dysfunction can lead to behavioral problems and reduction in a person's quality of life. In 50 % of patients with personality disorders, there is also sexual dysfunction. Psychoanalysis approach attributes the cause of sexual dysfunction to a kind of fundamental anxiety as well as the use of immature mechanisms in these patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of big five personality traits and defensive mechanisms in predicting these patients' quality of life. Statistical sample of this research included 80 women attending sexual health and family clinics of Shahed University using accessible sampling during 2010 and 2011. These subjects were given the Neo Personality Inventory Traits, Defensive Mechanisms, and the World Health organization Quality of Life Questionnaires to answer. The findings showed that personality traits could predict the quality of life in woman with sexual dysfunction. Moreover, among those five personality traits, neuroticism (:./24 P=./04 and conscientiousness(:./31 P=./03 were able to predict the quality of life while predictability rate of both factors was 37% of variance on the whole (p=0/05. Based on regression analysis, there was a significant relationship between the quality of life and defensive mechanisms so that using more mature defensive mechanisms (:./37 P=./006 and immature defensive mechanisms (:-./31 P= ./02 could significantly predict quality of life (p=0/0001. Also, neurotic defensive mechanisms were not significant predictors of these women' quality of life. (;./04 P=./78.

  12. Shelf-Life Prediction of Extra Virgin Olive Oils Using an Empirical Model Based on Standard Quality Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Guillaume

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extra virgin olive oil shelf-life could be defined as the length of time under normal storage conditions within which no off-flavours or defects are developed and quality parameters such as peroxide value and specific absorbance are retained within accepted limits for this commercial category. Prediction of shelf-life is a desirable goal in the food industry. Even when extra virgin olive oil shelf-life should be one of the most important quality markers for extra virgin olive oil, it is not recognised as a legal parameter in most regulations and standards around the world. The proposed empirical formula to be evaluated in the present study is based on common quality tests with known and predictable result changes over time and influenced by different aspects of extra virgin olive oil with a meaningful influence over its shelf-life. The basic quality tests considered in the formula are Rancimat® or induction time (IND; 1,2-diacylglycerols (DAGs; pyropheophytin a (PPP; and free fatty acids (FFA. This paper reports research into the actual shelf-life of commercially packaged extra virgin olive oils versus the predicted shelf-life of those oils determined by analysing the expected deterioration curves for the three basic quality tests detailed above. Based on the proposed model, shelf-life is predicted by choosing the lowest predicted shelf-life of any of those three tests.

  13. The prediction of reliability and residual life of reactor pressure components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemec, J.; Antalovsky, S.

    1978-01-01

    The paper deals with the problem of PWR pressure components reliability and residual life evaluation and prediction. A physical model of damage cumulation which serves as a theoretical basis for all considerations presents two major aspects. The first one describes the dependence of the degree of damage in the crack leading-edge in pressure components on the reactor system load-time history, i.e. on the number of transient loads. Both stages, fatigue crack initiation and growth through the wall until the critical length is reached, are investigated. The crack is supposed to initiate at the flaws in a strength weld joint or in the bimetallic weld of the base ferritic steel and the austenitic stainless overlay cladding. The growth rates of developed cracks are analysed in respect to different load-time histories. Important cyclic properties of some steels are derived from the low-cycle fatigue theory. The second aspect is the load-time history-dependent process of precipitation, deformation and radiation aging, characterized entirely by the critical crack-length value mentioned above. The fracture point, defined by the equation ''crack-length=critical value'' and hence the residual life, can be evaluated using this model and verified by in-service inspection. The physical model described is randomized by considering all the parameters of the model as random. Monte Carlo methods are applied and fatigue crack initiation and growth is simulated. This permits evaluation of the reliability and residual life of the component. The distributions of material and load-time history parameters are needed for such simulation. Both the deterministic and computer-simulated probabilistic predictions of reliability and residual life are verified by prior-to-failure sequential testing of data coming from in-service NDT periodical inspections. (author)

  14. Service Life Prediction of Wood Claddings by in-situ Measurement of Wood Moisture Content

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, Emil Tang; Lindegaard, Berit; Morsing, Niels

    2009-01-01

    of wood moisture are done by in-situ resistance moisture meters (Lindegaard and Morsing 2006). The aim is that the test should form the basis of evaluation of the maintenance requirements and the prediction of service life of the surface treatment and the wood/construction. At the moment 60 test racks...... are exposed. This study examines the data from the first five years of outdoor exposure using data from a test rack with a water-borne acrylic coating and a test rack with ICP coating for case studies. The moisture content data was converted into weekly average and weekly variation values which gave a deeper...

  15. Energy Dissipation-Based Method for Fatigue Life Prediction of Rock Salt

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Mingming; Huang, Bingqian; Zhu, Caihui; Chen, Yunsheng; Li, Ning

    2018-05-01

    The fatigue test for rock salt is conducted under different stress amplitudes, loading frequencies, confining pressures and loading rates, from which the evaluation rule of the dissipated energy is revealed and analysed. The evolution of energy dissipation under fatigue loading is divided into three stages: the initial stage, the second stage and the acceleration stage. In the second stage, the energy dissipation per cycle remains stable and shows an exponential relation with the stress amplitude; the failure dissipated energy only depends on the mechanical behaviour of the rock salt and confining pressure, but it is immune to the loading conditions. The energy dissipation of fatigued rock salt is discussed, and a novel model for fatigue life prediction is proposed on the basis of energy dissipation. A simple model for evolution of the accumulative dissipated energy is established. Its prediction results are compared with the test results, and the proposed model is validated.

  16. Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm-Based Particle Filter for Li-Ion Battery Life Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Tian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An intelligent online prognostic approach is proposed for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL of lithium-ion (Li-ion batteries based on artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA and particle filter (PF, which is an integrated approach combining model-based method with data-driven method. The parameters, used in the empirical model which is based on the capacity fade trends of Li-ion batteries, are identified dependent on the tracking ability of PF. AFSA-PF aims to improve the performance of the basic PF. By driving the prior particles to the domain with high likelihood, AFSA-PF allows global optimization, prevents particle degeneracy, thereby improving particle distribution and increasing prediction accuracy and algorithm convergence. Data provided by NASA are used to verify this approach and compare it with basic PF and regularized PF. AFSA-PF is shown to be more accurate and precise.

  17. New paradigm for prediction of radiation life-time of reactor pressure vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotrechko, S.A.; Meshkov, Yu.Ya.; Neklyudov, I.M.; Revka, V.N.

    2011-01-01

    New paradigm for prediction of radiation life-time of reactor pressure vessel is presented. Equation for limiting state of reactor pressure vessel wall with crack-like defect is obtained. It is exhibited that the value of critical fluence Φ c may be determined not by shift of critical temperature of fracture of surveillance specimen, which is indirect characteristic, but by direct method, namely, by the condition of initiation of brittle fracture of irradiated metal ahead of a crack in RPV wall. Within the framework of engineering version of LA to fracture the technique for Φ c ascertainment is developed. Prediction of Φ c for WWER pressure vessels demonstrates potentialities of this technique.

  18. [Research on engine remaining useful life prediction based on oil spectrum analysis and particle filtering].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lei; Jia, Yun-xian; Cai, Li-ying; Lin, Guo-yu; Zhao, Jin-song

    2013-09-01

    The spectrometric oil analysis(SOA) is an important technique for machine state monitoring, fault diagnosis and prognosis, and SOA based remaining useful life(RUL) prediction has an advantage of finding out the optimal maintenance strategy for machine system. Because the complexity of machine system, its health state degradation process can't be simply characterized by linear model, while particle filtering(PF) possesses obvious advantages over traditional Kalman filtering for dealing nonlinear and non-Gaussian system, the PF approach was applied to state forecasting by SOA, and the RUL prediction technique based on SOA and PF algorithm is proposed. In the prediction model, according to the estimating result of system's posterior probability, its prior probability distribution is realized, and the multi-step ahead prediction model based on PF algorithm is established. Finally, the practical SOA data of some engine was analyzed and forecasted by the above method, and the forecasting result was compared with that of traditional Kalman filtering method. The result fully shows the superiority and effectivity of the

  19. Remaining useful life prediction based on variation coefficient consistency test of a Wiener process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan LI

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available High-cost equipment is often reused after maintenance, and whether the information before the maintenance can be used for the Remaining Useful Life (RUL prediction after the maintenance is directly determined by the consistency of the degradation pattern before and after the maintenance. Aiming at this problem, an RUL prediction method based on the consistency test of a Wiener process is proposed. Firstly, the parameters of the Wiener process estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE are proved to be biased, and a modified unbiased estimation method is proposed and verified by derivation and simulations. Then, the h statistic is constructed according to the reciprocal of the variation coefficient of the Wiener process, and the sampling distribution is derived. Meanwhile, a universal method for the consistency test is proposed based on the sampling distribution theorem, which is verified by simulation data and classical crack degradation data. Finally, based on the consistency test of the degradation model, a weighted fusion RUL prediction method is presented for the fuel pump of an airplane, and the validity of the presented method is verified by accurate computation results of real data, which provides a theoretical and practical guidance for engineers to predict the RUL of equipment after maintenance.

  20. Ensemble of data-driven prognostic algorithms for robust prediction of remaining useful life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Chao; Youn, Byeng D.; Wang Pingfeng; Taek Yoon, Joung

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics aims at determining whether a failure of an engineered system (e.g., a nuclear power plant) is impending and estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) before the failure occurs. The traditional data-driven prognostic approach is to construct multiple candidate algorithms using a training data set, evaluate their respective performance using a testing data set, and select the one with the best performance while discarding all the others. This approach has three shortcomings: (i) the selected standalone algorithm may not be robust; (ii) it wastes the resources for constructing the algorithms that are discarded; (iii) it requires the testing data in addition to the training data. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper proposes an ensemble data-driven prognostic approach which combines multiple member algorithms with a weighted-sum formulation. Three weighting schemes, namely the accuracy-based weighting, diversity-based weighting and optimization-based weighting, are proposed to determine the weights of member algorithms. The k-fold cross validation (CV) is employed to estimate the prediction error required by the weighting schemes. The results obtained from three case studies suggest that the ensemble approach with any weighting scheme gives more accurate RUL predictions compared to any sole algorithm when member algorithms producing diverse RUL predictions have comparable prediction accuracy and that the optimization-based weighting scheme gives the best overall performance among the three weighting schemes.