Radar rainfall image repair techniques

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Stephen M. Wesson

2004-01-01

Full Text Available There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and are nearest neighbour techniques of two sub-types: Individual Target and Border Tracing. The contaminated data is estimated through Kriging, considered the optimal technique for the spatial interpolation of Gaussian data, where the 'screening effect' that occurs with the Kriging weighting distribution around target points is exploited to ensure computational efficiency. Matrix rank reduction techniques in combination with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD are also suggested for finding an efficient solution to the Kriging Equations which can cope with near singular systems. Rainfall estimation at ground level from radar rainfall volume scan data is of interest and importance in earth bound applications such as hydrology and agriculture. As an extension of the above, Ordinary Kriging is applied to three-dimensional radar rainfall data to estimate rainfall rate at ground level. Keywords: ground clutter, data infilling, Ordinary Kriging, nearest neighbours, Singular Value Decomposition, border tracing, computation time, ground level rainfall estimation

Potential Impact of Rainfall on the Air-Surface Exchange of Total Gaseous Mercury from Two Common Urban Ground Surfaces

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The impact of rainfall on total gaseous mercury (TGM) flux from pavement and street dirt surfaces was investigated in an effort to determine the influence of wet weather events on mercury transport in urban watersheds. Street dirt and pavement are common urban ground surfaces tha...

Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

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T. P. Burt

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

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Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

2015-04-01

To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES): A product of a high temporal resolution rainfall data collection in Europe

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Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the (R)USLE model. The R-factor is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minutes rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years) which are not readily available at European scale. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland in order to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,541 rainfall stations in 2014 and has been updated with 134 additional stations in 2015. The interpolation of those point R-factor values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511, 801-815). The intra-annual variability of rainfall erosivity is crucial for modelling soil erosion on a monthly and seasonal basis. The monthly feature of rainfall erosivity has been added in 2015 as an advancement of REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map. Almost 19,000 monthly R-factor values of REDES contributed to the seasonal and monthly assessments of rainfall erosivity in Europe. According to the first results, more than 50% of the total rainfall erosivity in Europe takes place in the period from June to September. The spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity have significant differences between Northern and Southern Europe as summer is the most erosive period in Central and Northern Europe and autumn in the

Estimation of Rainfall Erosivity via 1-Minute to Hourly Rainfall Data from Taipei, Taiwan

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Huang, Ting-Yin; Yang, Ssu-Yao; Jan, Chyan-Deng

2017-04-01

Soil erosion is a natural process on hillslopes that threats people's life and properties, having a considerable environmental and economic implications for soil degradation, agricultural activity and water quality. The rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), composed of total kinetic energy (E) and the maximum 30-min rainfall intensity (I30), is widely used as an indicator to measure the potential risks of soil loss caused by rainfall at a regional scale. This R factor can represent the detachment and entrainment involved in climate conditions on hillslopes, but lack of 30-min rainfall intensity data usually lead to apply this factor more difficult in many regions. In recent years, fixed-interval, hourly rainfall data is readily available and widely used due to the development of automatic weather stations. Here we assess the estimations of R, E, and I30 based on 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, 60-minute rainfall data, and hourly rainfall data obtained from Taipei weather station during 2004 to 2010. Results show that there is a strong correlation among R-factors estimated from different interval rainfall data. Moreover, the shorter time-interval rainfall data (e.g., 1-min) yields larger value of R-factor. The conversion factors of rainfall erosivity (ratio of values estimated from the resolution lower than 30-min rainfall data to those estimated from 60-min and hourly rainfall data, respectively) range from 1.85 to 1.40 (resp. from 1.89 to 1.02) for 60-min (resp. hourly) rainfall data as the time resolution increasing from 30-min to 1-min. This paper provides useful information on estimating R-factor when hourly rainfall data is only available.

Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

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Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

2009-12-01

A large number of human settlements on the Nepal Himalayas are situated either on old landslide mass or on landslide-prone areas. As a result, a great number of people are affected by large- and small-scale landslides all over the Himalayas especially during monsoon periods. In Nepal, only in the half monsoon period (June 10 to August 15), 70, 50 and 68 people were killed from landslides in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. In this context, this paper highlights monsoon rainfall and their implications in the Nepal Himalaya. In Nepal, monsoon is major source of rainfall in summer and approximately 80% of the annual total rainfall occurs from June to September. The measured values of mean annual precipitation in Nepal range from a low of approximately 250 mm at area north of the Himalaya to many areas exceeding 6,000 mm. The mean annual rainfall varying between 1500 mm and 2500 mm predominate over most of the country. In Nepal, the daily distribution of precipitation during rainy season is also uneven. Sometime 10% of the total annual precipitation can occur in a single day. Similarly, 50% total annual rainfall also can occur within 10 days of monsoon. This type of uneven distribution plays an important role in triggering many landslides in Nepal. When spatial distribution of landslides was evaluated from record of more than 650 landslides, it is found that more landslides events were concentrated at central Nepal in the area of high mean annual rainfall. When monsoon rainfall and landslide relationship was taken into consideration, it was noticed that a considerable number of landslides were triggered in the Himalaya by continuous rainfall of 3 to 90 days. It has been noticed that continuous rainfall of few days (5 days or 7 days or 10 days) are usually responsible for landsliding in the Nepal Himalaya. Monsoon rains usually fall with interruptions of 2-3 days and are generally characterized by low intensity and long duration. Thus, there is a strong role of

ANALYSIS OF EFFECTIVE RAINFALL INTENSITY AND WORKING RAINFALL FOR BASIC WARNING CRITERIA DEVELOPMENT ON LAHAR FLOW EVENT

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Fitriyadi Fitriyadi

2015-05-01

The research results showed that the number of reviewed serial rain with total value ≥ 80 mm is 9.28% of the whole serial rain, and 12.5% of them caused lahar flow in Gendol River. Debris flow occurrence probability on total rainfall amount of ≥ 80 mm that may occur on Gendol River amounted to 1.89%. This value represents less possibility of debris flow in Gendol River, this is due to the rain conditions in the Gendol Watershed different from the situation in Japan as well as the limitations of the available data. It is recommended for further research on the limitation of total rainfall in accordance with the conditions in Gendol Watershed by considering other parameters becoming the lahar flow controller factor. Further, it is necessary to perform the analysis using rain catchment method by averaging rainfall values on each of serial rain.

Hydrologic response in karstic-ridge wetlands to rainfall and evapotranspiration, central Florida, 2001-2003

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Knowles, Leel; Phelps, G.G.; Kinnaman, Sandra L.; German, Edward R.

2005-01-01

Two internally drained karstic wetlands in central Florida-Boggy Marsh at the Hilochee Wildlife Management Area and a large unnamed wetland at the Lyonia Preserve-were studied during 2001-03 to gain a better understanding of the net-recharge function that these wetlands provide, the significance of exchanges with ground water with regard to wetland water budgets, and the variability in wetland hydrologic response to a range of climate conditions. These natural, relatively remote and unaltered wetlands were selected to provide a baseline of natural wetland hydrologic variability to which anthropogenic influences on wetland hydrology could be compared. Large departures from normal rainfall during the study were fortuitous, and allowed monitoring of hydrologic processes over a wide range of climate conditions. Wetland responses varied greatly as a result of climate conditions that ranged from moderate drought to extremely moist. Anthropogenic activities influenced water levels at both study sites; however, because these activities were brief relative to the duration of the study, sufficient data were collected during unimpacted periods to allow for the following conclusions to be made. Water budgets developed for Boggy Marsh and the Lyonia large wetland showed strong similarity between the flux terms of rainfall, evaporation, net change in storage, and the net ground-water exchange residual. Runoff was assumed to be negligible. Of the total annual flux at Boggy Marsh, rainfall accounted for 45 percent; evaporation accounted for 25 percent; net change in storage accounted for 25 percent; and the net residual accounted for 5 percent. At the Lyonia large wetland, rainfall accounted for 44 percent; evaporation accounted for 29 percent; net change in storage accounted for 21 percent; and the net residual accounted for 6 percent of the total annual flux. Wetland storage and ground-water exchange were important when compared to the total water budget at both wetlands. Even

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

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Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

2014-05-01

Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

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Svoboda Vojtěch

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Projected changes of warm season (May–September rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000 and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

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Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

2016-10-01

One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of

Convective and nonconvective rainfall partitioning over a mixed Sudanian Savanna Agriculture Catchment: Use of a distributed sensor network

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Ceperley, N. C.; Mande, T.; Barrenetxea, G.; Repetti, A.; Yacouba, H.; Tyler, S. W.; Parlange, M. B.

2011-12-01

A hydro-meteorological field campaign (joint EPFL-2iE) in a mixed agricultural and forest region in the southern Burkina Faso Savanna aims to identify and understand convective rainfall processes and the link to soil moisture. A simple slab Mixed Layer and Lifting Condensation Level model is implemented to separate convective and nonconvective rainfall. Data for this research were acquired during the 2010 rainy season using an array of wireless weather stations (SensorScope) as well as surface energy balance stations that based upon eddy correlation heat flux measurements. The precipitation was found to be variable over the basin with some 200 mm of difference in total seasonal rainfall between agricultural fields and savanna forest. Convective rainfall represents more than 30% of the total rainfall. The convective rainfall events are short (less than hour), intense (greater than 3 mm/minute) and occur both in the early morning and in the afternoons. These events can have an important impact on soil erosion, which we discuss in more detail along with seasonal stream-aquifer interactions.

What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

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Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.

2015-10-01

How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

Application of a modified conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulation of groundwater level in an undefined watershed.

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Hong, Nian; Hama, Takehide; Suenaga, Yuichi; Aqili, Sayed Waliullah; Huang, Xiaowu; Wei, Qiaoyan; Kawagoshi, Yasunori

2016-01-15

Groundwater level simulation models can help ensure the proper management and use of urban and rural water supply. In this paper, we propose a groundwater level tank model (GLTM) based on a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (tank model) to simulate fluctuations in groundwater level. The variables used in the simulations consist of daily rainfall and daily groundwater level, which were recorded between April 2011 and March 2015 at two representative observation wells in Kumamoto City, Japan. We determined the best-fit model parameters by root-mean-square error through use of the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona algorithm on a simulated data set. Calibration and validation results were evaluated by their coefficients of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients, and root-mean-square error values. The GLTM provided accurate results in both the calibration and validation of fluctuations in groundwater level. The split sample test results indicate a good reliability. These results indicate that this model can provide a simple approach to the accurate simulation of groundwater levels. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

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Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

2015-04-01

Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

Relations between total phosphorus and orthophosphorus concentrations and rainfall, surface-water discharge, and groundwater levels in Big Cypress Seminole Indian Reservation, Florida, 2014–16

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McBride, W. Scott; Sifuentes, Dorothy F.

2018-02-06

The Seminole Tribe of Florida (the Tribe) is partnering with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to develop a numeric phosphorus criterion for the 52,000-acre Big Cypress Seminole Indian Reservation (BCSIR), which is located downgradient of the Everglades Agricultural Area, and of other public and private lands, in southeastern Hendry County and northwestern Broward County in southern Florida. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Tribe, used water-quality data collected between October 2014 and September 2016 by the Tribe and the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), along with data from rainfall gages, surface-water stage and discharge gages, and groundwater monitoring wells, to (1) examine the relations between local hydrology and measured total phosphorus (TP) and orthophosphorus (OP) concentrations and (2) identify explanatory variables for TP concentrations. Of particular concern were conditions when TP exceeded 10 parts per billion (ppb) (0.01 milligram per liter [mg/L]) given that the State of Florida and the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians Alligator Alley Reservation (located downstream of the BCSIR) have adopted a 10-ppb maximum TP criterion for surface waters.From October 2014 to September 2016, the Tribe collected 47–52 samples at each of nine water-quality sites for analysis of TP and OP, except at one site where 28 samples were collected. For all sites sampled, concentrations of TP (as phosphorus [P]) ranged from less than 0.002 mg/L (2 ppb) to a maximum of nearly 0.50 mg/L (500 ppb), whereas concentrations of OP (as P), the reactive form of inorganic phosphorus readily absorbed by plants and (or) abiotically absorbed, ranged from less than 0.003 mg/L (3 ppb) to a maximum of 0.24 mg/L (240 ppb). The median and interquartile ranges of concentrations of TP and OP in the samples collected in 2014–16 by the Tribe were similar to the median and interquartile ranges of concentrations in samples collected by the SFWMD at

Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length

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Guan, Kaiyu; Good, Stephen P.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Medvigy, David; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Sato, Hisashi; Biasutti, Michela; Chen, Min; Ahlström, Anders; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-01

There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (-20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of

Modeling Daily Rainfall Conditional on Atmospheric Predictors: An application to Western Greece

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Langousis, Andreas; Kaleris, Vassilios

2013-04-01

1979 - 30 September 1993. The developed model is found to accurately reproduce several statistics of actual rainfall timeseries, including the distribution of annual rainfall totals, the seasonal means, variances and wet-day fractions (i.e. seasonality), the alternation of wet and dry intervals (i.e. rainfall intermittency), and the empirical distribution of dry and wet spell lengths (i.e. the clustered nature of rainfall). The suggested approach is expected to serve as a useful tool for the stochastic simulation of rainfall timeseries conditional on GCM outputs, at a regional level, and at temporal scales suitable to run hydrological models and perform hydrologic impact studies. Acknowledgments: The research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State.

Using Conditional Analysis to Investigate Spatial and Temporal patterns in Upland Rainfall

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Sakamoto Ferranti, Emma Jayne; Whyatt, James Duncan; Timmis, Roger James

2010-05-01

The seasonality and characteristics of rainfall in the UK are altering under a changing climate. Summer rainfall is generally decreasing whereas winter rainfall is increasing, particularly in northern and western areas (Maraun et al., 2008) and recent research suggests these rainfall increases are amplified in upland areas (Burt and Ferranti, 2010). Conditional analysis has been used to investigate these rainfall patterns in Cumbria, an upland area in northwest England. Cumbria was selected as an example of a topographically diverse mid-latitude region that has a predominately maritime and westerly-defined climate. Moreover it has a dense network of more than 400 rain gauges that have operated for periods between 1900 and present day. Cumbria has experienced unprecedented flooding in the past decade and understanding the spatial and temporal changes in this and other upland regions is important for water resource and ecosystem management. The conditional analysis method examines the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall under different synoptic conditions and in different geographic sub-regions (Ferranti et al., 2009). A daily synoptic typing scheme, the Lamb Weather Catalogue, was applied to classify rainfall into different weather types, for example: south-westerly, westerly, easterly or cyclonic. Topographic descriptors developed using GIS were used to classify rain gauges into 6 directionally-dependant geographic sub-regions: coastal, windward-lowland, windward-upland, leeward-upland, leeward-lowland, secondary upland. Combining these classification methods enabled seasonal rainfall climatologies to be produced for specific weather types and sub-regions. Winter rainfall climatologies were constructed for all 6 sub-regions for 3 weather types - south-westerly (SW), westerly (W), and cyclonic (C); these weather types contribute more than 50% of total winter rainfall. The frequency of wet-days (>0.3mm), the total winter rainfall and the average wet day

Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall

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Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James

2016-04-01

Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

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Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

Patterns of species richness and abundance among cactus communities receiving different rainfall levels in the semiarid region of Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Sérgio Monteiro Ferreira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study examines the variation in cacti species richness and abundance among sites with different average rainfall and soil types. We assessed a total of 3,660 individuals of six species of Cactaceae: Cereus jamacaru, Melocactus zehntneri, Pilosocereus gounellei, Pilosocereus pachycladus, Tacinga inamoena, and Tacinga palmadora. The greatest species richness and abundance of cacti were at locations with low rainfall and more clayey soils. The species studied differed in multidimensional representation, with some species being more positively related to soils with a higher proportion of fine particles (M. zehntneri and P. gounellei, while others were negatively related to soils with a higher proportion of coarser particles (T. inamoena or positively related to areas with higher rainfall and vegetation cover (C. jamacaru and P. pachycladus. The differential responses of the species of Cactaceae studied in relation to the gradients analyzed demonstrates the need for more research into the relationship between cacti and environmental variables in semiarid ecosystems with high environmental heterogeneity.

Soil degradation level under particular annual rainfall at Jenawi District– Karanganyar, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Herawati, A.; Suntoro; Widijanto, H.; Pusponegoro, I.; Sutopo, N. R.; Mujiyo

2018-03-01

The study of the climatic elements such as rainfall is vital for the sustainable development of agriculture at a region. The aims of the study were to evaluate the soil degradation based on the annual rainfall and to determine the key factors which responsible for the soil degradation at in Jenawi Sub-District. The mapping of soil degradation potency is an identification of initial soil condition to discover the potential of the land degradation. The mapping was done by overlaying the map of soil, slope, rainfall and land use with the standard procedures to obtain the value and status of Soil Degradation Potency (SDP). The result showed that SDP in Jenawi District categorized in very low (SDP I) 0.00 ha (0.00%); low (SDP II) 109.01 ha (2.57%); moderate (SDP III) 1,935.92 ha (45.63%); high (SDP IV) 1,959.54 ha (46.19%) and very high (SDP V) 238.08 ha (5.61%). The rainfall is the factor which has the strong correlation with the SDP (r = 0.65, P local soil-land characteristics.

Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

2017-05-01

This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2017-03-01

The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the

Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

KAUST Repository

Sagalgile, Archana P.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Attada, Raju; Singh, Prem

2017-01-01

This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

KAUST Repository

Sagalgile, Archana P.

2017-10-26

This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

Rainfall: Features and Variations over Saudi Arabia, A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hosny Hasanean

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The Saudi Arabia (SA climate varies greatly, depending on the geography and the season. According to K ppen and Geiger, the climates of SA is “desert climate”. The analysis of the seasonal rainfall detects that spring and winter seasons have the highestrainfall incidence, respectively. Through the summer,small quantities of precipitation are observed, while autumn received more precipitation more than summer season considering the total annual rainfall. In all seasons, the SW area receives rainfall, with a maximum in spring, whereas in the summer season, the NE and NW areas receive very little quantities of precipitation. The Rub Al-Khali (the SE region is almost totally dry. The maximum amount of annual rainfall does not always happen at the highest elevation. Therefore, the elevation is not the only factor in rainfall distribution.A great inter-annual change in the rainfall over the SA for the period (1978–2009 is observed. In addition, in the same period, a linear decreasing trend is found in the observed rainfall, whilst in the recent past (1994–2009 a statistically significant negative trend is observed. In the Southern part of the Arabian Peninsula (AP and along the coast of the Red Sea, it is interesting to note that rainfall increased, whilst it decreased over most areas of SA during the 2000–2009 decade, compared to 1980–1989.Statistical and numerical models are used to predict rainfall over Saudi Arabia (SA. The statistical models based on stochastic models of ARIMA and numerical models based on Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies of Hadley Centre (PRECIS. Climate and its qualitative character and quantified range of possible future changes are investigated. The annual total rainfall decreases in most regions of the SA and only increases in the south. The summertime precipitation will be the highest between other seasons over the southern, the southwestern provinces and Asir mountains, while the wintertime

Rainfall-induced runoff from exposed streambed sediments: an important source of water pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, S K; Gottschall, N; Wilkes, G; Grégoire, D S; Topp, E; Pintar, K D M; Sunohara, M; Marti, R; Lapen, D R

2015-01-01

When surface water levels decline, exposed streambed sediments can be mobilized and washed into the water course when subjected to erosive rainfall. In this study, rainfall simulations were conducted over exposed sediments along stream banks at four distinct locations in an agriculturally dominated river basin with the objective of quantifying the potential for contaminant loading from these often overlooked runoff source areas. At each location, simulations were performed at three different sites. Nitrogen, phosphorus, sediment, fecal indicator bacteria, pathogenic bacteria, and microbial source tracking (MST) markers were examined in both prerainfall sediments and rainfall-induced runoff water. Runoff generation and sediment mobilization occurred quickly (10-150 s) after rainfall initiation. Temporal trends in runoff concentrations were highly variable within and between locations. Total runoff event loads were considered large for many pollutants considered. For instance, the maximum observed total phosphorus runoff load was on the order of 1.5 kg ha. Results also demonstrate that runoff from exposed sediments can be a source of pathogenic bacteria. spp. and spp. were present in runoff from one and three locations, respectively. Ruminant MST markers were also present in runoff from two locations, one of which hosted pasturing cattle with stream access. Overall, this study demonstrated that rainfall-induced runoff from exposed streambed sediments can be an important source of surface water pollution. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Forecasting and Analysis of Monthly Rainfalls in Ardabil Province by Arima, Autoregrressive, and Winters Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Salahi

2017-01-01

precipitation in Ardabil synoptic station indicates that in May, the highest and in August, the lowest monthly total rainfall accounted in this station. Standard deviation of rainfall reached to the lowest level in August and its peak in November. Coefficients of skewness and kurtosis of total rainfall in all seasons, indicates a lack of compliance with normal distribution. From the view of the range of total monthly rainfall, October and August have highest and the lowest tolerance in these parameters, respectively. The results showed that the percentage of the mean absolute error for Arima, Winters and Autoregressive models was 61.82, 148.39 and 81.54 respectively and its R square came to be 88.28, 61.07 and 85.12 respectively. The comparison of the parameters is an indication of the fact that Arima has the highest R square and the lowest mean absolute error of 88.28 and 61.82 respectively than Winters and Autoregressive models. The presence or absence of significant changes in mean precipitation during 1977-1993 and 2010-1994 in Ardabil synoptic station shows that the difference of rainfall is not significant at the 5% error level from statistical point of view. The comparison between the monthly mean rainfall of Ardabil synoptic station in 1994-2010 and 1977-1993 indicates that rainfall has somewhat decreased in the former in recent years. Considering the low average monthly rainfall of Ardabil synoptic station in 1994-2010 compared to 1977-1993 (21.98 versus 26.11 mm, although no statistically significant difference was found in the average rainfall, low rainfall in this station would not be unexpected in the coming years. The comparison of predicted and actual values from 2011 to 2013 in Ardabil synoptic station showed that fitting real data with expected data was relatively acceptable. The observed differences between the actual and predicted values can be related to the influence of rainfalls and many local and dynamical factors of this area. Therefore, it is necessary

Urban Run-off Volumes Dependency on Rainfall Measurement Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, L.; Jensen, N. E.; Rasmussen, Michael R.

2005-01-01

Urban run-off is characterized with fast response since the large surface run-off in the catchments responds immediately to variations in the rainfall. Modeling such type of catchments is most often done with the input from very few rain gauges, but the large variation in rainfall over small areas...... resolutions and single gauge rainfall was fed to a MOUSE run-off model. The flow and total volume over the event is evaluated....

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.

2018-03-01

The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hassan Zulkarnain

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015 data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM, as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM. Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

to the performance of summer monsoon rain- fall over India. Variations in the total amount of rainfall have strong socio-economic consequences. Parthasarathy et al .... deviation of rainfall for training period 1961–1995, are 838.4 mm and 89.3 mm respectively. The period. 1949–1960 and 1996–2005 is used for independent.

Disturbance Driven Rainfall in O`ahu, Hawai`i (1990-2010)

Science.gov (United States)

Longman, R. J.; Elison Timm, O.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kaiser, L.; Newman, A. J.; Arnold, J.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Trade wind orographic rainfall is the most prevalent synoptic weather pattern in Hawai`i and provides a year-round source of moisture to the windward areas across the Island chain. Significant contributions to total and extreme precipitation have also been linked to one of four atmospheric disturbance situations that include: cold fronts, Kona storms, upper-tropospheric disturbances (upper level lows), and tropical systems. The primary objective of this research is to determine how these disturbance types contribute to total wet-season rainfall (RF) on the Island of O`ahu, Hawai`i and to identify any significant changes in the frequency of occurrence and or the intensity of these events. Atmospheric fronts that occurred in the Hawai`i region (17-26°N, 150-165°W) were extracted from a global dataset and combined with a Kona low and upper level low dataset to create a daily categorical weather classification time series (1990-2010). Mean rainfall was extracted from gridded daily O`ahu RF maps. Results show that the difference between a wet and dry year is predominantly explained by the RF contributions from disturbance events (r2 = 0.57, p cold fronts that cross the Island. During the wettest season on record, disturbances accounted for 48% of the total RF, while during the driest season they accounted for only 6% of the total RF. The event-based RF analysis also compared the RF intensity in the absence of disturbance events with the average RF intensity on days when atmospheric fronts are present but do not cross the island. The results show that non-crossing fronts reduce the average RF intensity. A possible explanation is that these events are too far away to produce RF, but close enough to disrupt normal trade wind flow, thus limiting orographic RF on the island. This new event-based RF analysis has important implications for the projection of regional climate change in Hawai`i. Our results suggest that if storm tracks were to shift poleward, O`ahu wet season

Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey

2017-04-01

Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan. Kuang-Jung Tsai 1, Jie-Lun Chiang 2,Ming-Hsi Lee 2, Yie-Ruey Chen 1, 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian Universityt, Tainan, Taiwan. 2Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, Taiwan. ABSTRACT The accumulated rainfall amount was recorded more than 2,900mm that were brought by Morakot typhoon in August, 2009 within continuous 3 days. Very serious landslides, and sediment related disasters were induced by this heavy rainfall event. The satellite image analysis project conducted by Soil and Water Conservation Bureau after Morakot event indicated that more than 10,904 sites of landslide with total sliding area of 18,113ha were found by this project. At the same time, all severe sediment related disaster areas are also characterized based on their disaster type, scale, topography, major bedrock formations and geologic structures during the period of extremely heavy rainfall events occurred at the southern Taiwan. Characteristics and mechanism of large scale landslide are collected on the basis of the field investigation technology integrated with GPS/GIS/RS technique. In order to decrease the risk of large scale landslides on slope land, the strategy of slope land conservation, and critical rainfall database should be set up and executed as soon as possible. Meanwhile, study on the establishment of critical rainfall value used for predicting large scale landslides induced by heavy rainfall become an important issue which was seriously concerned by the government and all people live in Taiwan. The mechanism of large scale landslide, rainfall frequency analysis ,sediment budge estimation and river hydraulic analysis under the condition of extremely climate change during the past 10 years would be seriously concerned and recognized as a required issue by this

Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, T.G.

1996-01-01

The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, USA using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soilwater flux will result in larger increases in soil-adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distributions of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading. 29 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

1994-01-01

rainfalls. The method is applied to two variables: the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10-minute rain intensity of individual storms. On the basis of the atsite modelling a regional analysis is carried out. It is shown that the previous assumption of spatial homogeneity of extreme rainfalls...

Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Coughlan de Perez

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.

Watershed soil Cd loss after long-term agricultural practice and biochar amendment under four rainfall levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, Wei; Huang, Weijia; Hao, Xin; Tysklind, Mats; Haglund, Peter; Hao, Fanghua

2017-10-01

Some heavy metals in farmland soil can be transported into the waterbody, affecting the water quality and sediment at the watershed outlet, which can be used to determine the historical loss pattern. Cd is a typical heavy metal leached from farmland that is related to phosphate fertilizers and carries serious environmental risk. The spatial-vertical pattern of Cd in soil and the vertical trend of Cd in the river sediment core were analyzed, which showed the migration and accumulation of Cd in the watershed. To prevent watershed Cd loss, biochar was employed, and leaching experiments were conducted to investigate the Cd loss from soil depending on the initial concentration. Four rainfall intensities, 1.25 mm/h, 2.50 mm/h, 5.00 mm/h, and 10.00 mm/h, were used to simulate typical rainfall scenarios for the study area. Biochar was prepared from corn straw after pretreatment with ammonium dihydrogen phosphate (ADP) and pyrolysis at 400 °C under anoxic conditions. To identify the effects of biochar amendment on Cd migration, the biochar was mixed with soil for 90 days at concentrations of 0%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 3.0%, and 5.0% soil by weight. The results showed that the Cd leaching load increased as the initial load and rainfall intensity increased and that eluviation caused surface Cd to diffuse to the deep soils. The biochar application caused more of the heavy metals to be immobilized in the amended soil rather than transported into the waterbody. The sorption efficiency of the biochar for Cd increased as the addition level increased to 3%, which showed better performance than the 5% addition level under some initial concentration and rainfall conditions. The research indicated that biochar is a potential material to prevent diffuse heavy metal pollution and that a lower addition makes the application more feasible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

2015-05-01

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

2018-04-01

The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

Science.gov (United States)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

Rainfall changes affect the algae dominance in tank bromeliad ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Pires, Aliny Patricia Flauzino; Leal, Juliana da Silva; Peeters, Edwin T. H. M.

2017-01-01

Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors. PMID:28422988

Reducing Production Basis Risk through Rainfall Intensity Frequency (RIF) Indexes: Global Sensitivity Analysis' Implication on Policy Design

Science.gov (United States)

Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus; Huffaker, Ray; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael

2016-04-01

The weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions with swift compensation at affordable premium thanks to its minimal adverse selection and moral hazard. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing causes the presence of "production basis risk" that the selected weather indexes and their thresholds do not correspond to actual damages. To reduce basis risk without additional data collection cost, we propose the use of rain intensity and frequency as indexes as it could offer better protection at the lower premium by avoiding basis risk-strike trade-off inherent in the total rainfall index. We present empirical evidences and modeling results that even under the similar cumulative rainfall and temperature environment, yield can significantly differ especially for drought sensitive crops. We further show that deriving the trigger level and payoff function from regression between historical yield and total rainfall data may pose significant basis risk owing to their non-unique relationship in the insured range of rainfall. Lastly, we discuss the design of index insurance in terms of contract specifications based on the results from global sensitivity analysis.

Fitting monthly Peninsula Malaysian rainfall using Tweedie distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Yunus, R. M.; Hasan, M. M.; Zubairi, Y. Z.

2017-09-01

In this study, the Tweedie distribution was used to fit the monthly rainfall data from 24 monitoring stations of Peninsula Malaysia for the period from January, 2008 to April, 2015. The aim of the study is to determine whether the distributions within the Tweedie family fit well the monthly Malaysian rainfall data. Within the Tweedie family, the gamma distribution is generally used for fitting the rainfall totals, however the Poisson-gamma distribution is more useful to describe two important features of rainfall pattern, which are the occurrences (dry months) and the amount (wet months). First, the appropriate distribution of the monthly rainfall was identified within the Tweedie family for each station. Then, the Tweedie Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with no explanatory variable was used to model the monthly rainfall data. Graphical representation was used to assess model appropriateness. The QQ plots of quantile residuals show that the Tweedie models fit the monthly rainfall data better for majority of the stations in the west coast and mid land than those in the east coast of Peninsula. This significant finding suggests that the best fitted distribution depends on the geographical location of the monitoring station. In this paper, a simple model is developed for generating synthetic rainfall data for use in various areas, including agriculture and irrigation. We have showed that the data that were simulated using the Tweedie distribution have fairly similar frequency histogram to that of the actual data. Both the mean number of rainfall events and mean amount of rain for a month were estimated simultaneously for the case that the Poisson gamma distribution fits the data reasonably well. Thus, this work complements previous studies that fit the rainfall amount and the occurrence of rainfall events separately, each to a different distribution.

Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

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Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

2015-12-01

Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

Detecting Climate Variability in Tropical Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, W.

2004-05-01

A number of satellite and merged satellite/in-situ rainfall products have been developed extending as far back as 1979. While the availability of global rainfall data covering over two decades and encompassing two major El Niño events is a valuable resource for a variety of climate studies, significant differences exist between many of these products. Unfortunately, issues such as availability often determine the use of a product for a given application instead of an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the various products. Significant efforts have been made to address the impact of sparse sampling by satellite sensors of variable rainfall processes by merging various satellite and in-situ rainfall products. These combine high spatial and temporal frequency satellite infrared data with higher quality passive microwave observations and rain gauge observations. Combining such an approach with spatial and temporal averaging of the data can reduce the large random errors inherent in satellite rainfall estimates to very small levels. Unfortunately, systematic biases can and do result in artificial climate signals due to the underconstrained nature of the rainfall retrieval problem. Because all satellite retrieval algorithms make assumptions regarding the cloud structure and microphysical properties, systematic changes in these assumed parameters between regions and/or times results in regional and/or temporal biases in the rainfall estimates. These biases tend to be relatively small compared to random errors in the retrieval, however, when random errors are reduced through spatial and temporal averaging for climate applications, they become the dominant source of error. Whether or not such biases impact the results for climate studies is very much dependent on the application. For example, all of the existing satellite rainfall products capture the increased rainfall in the east Pacific associated with El Niño, however, the resulting tropical response to

Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jiande [I.M. System Group Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NOAA/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Fu, Xiouhua [University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Seo, Kyong-Hwan [Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2012-06-15

While large-scale circulation fields from atmospheric reanalyses have been widely used to study the tropical intraseasonal variability, rainfall variations from the reanalyses are less focused. Because of the sparseness of in situ observations available in the tropics and strong coupling between convection and large-scale circulation, the accuracy of tropical rainfall from the reanalyses not only measures the quality of reanalysis rainfall but is also to some extent indicative of the accuracy of the circulations fields. This study analyzes tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the recently completed NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and its comparison with the widely used NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2). The R1 produces too weak rainfall variability while the R2 generates too strong westward propagation. Compared with the R1 and R2, the CFSR produces greatly improved tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability with the dominance of eastward propagation and more realistic amplitude. An analysis of the relationship between rainfall and large-scale fields using composites based on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events shows that, in all three NCEP reanalyses, the moisture convergence leading the rainfall maximum is near the surface in the western Pacific but is above 925 hPa in the eastern Indian Ocean. However, the CFSR produces the strongest large-scale convergence and the rainfall from CFSR lags the column integrated precipitable water by 1 or 2 days while R1 and R2 rainfall tends to lead the respective precipitable water. Diabatic heating related to the MJO variability in the CFSR is analyzed and compared with that derived from large-scale fields. It is found that the amplitude of CFSR-produced total heating anomalies is smaller than that of the derived. Rainfall variability from the other two recently produced reanalyses, the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and

Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

Evaluation of rainfall infiltration characteristics in a volcanic ash soil by time domain reflectometry method

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S. Hasegawa

1997-01-01

Full Text Available Time domain reflectometry (TDR was used to monitor soil water conditions and to evaluate infiltration characteristics associated with rainfall into a volcanic-ash soil (Hydric Hapludand with a low bulk density. Four 1 m TDR probes were installed vertically along a 6 m line in a bare field. Three 30 cm and one 60 cm probes were installed between the 1 m probes. Soil water content was measured every half or every hour throughout the year. TDR enabled prediction of the soil water content precisely even though the empirical equation developed by Topp et al. (1980 underestimated the water content. Field capacity, defined as the amount of water stored to a depth of 1 m on the day following heavy rainfall, was 640 mm. There was approximately 100 mm difference in the amount of water stored between field capacity and the driest period. Infiltration characteristics of rainfall were investigated for 36 rainfall events exceeding 10 mm with a total amount of rain of 969 mm out of an annual rainfall of 1192 mm. In the case of 25 low intensity rainfall events with less than 10 mm h-1 on to dry soils, the increase in the amount of water stored to a depth of 1 m was equal to the cumulative rainfall. For rain intensity in excess of 10 mm h-1, non-uniform infiltration occurred. The increase in the amount of water stored at lower elevation locations was 1.4 to 1.6 times larger than at higher elevation locations even though the difference in ground height among the 1 m probes was 6 cm. In the two instances when rainfall exceeded 100 mm, including the amount of rain in a previous rainfall event, the increase in the amount of water stored to a depth of 1 m was 65 mm lower than the total quantity of rain on the two occasions (220 mm; this indicated that 65 mm of water or 5.5% of the annual rainfall had flowed away either by surface runoff or bypass flow. Hence, approximately 95% of the annual rainfall was absorbed by the soil matrix but it is not possible to simulate

Erosive rainfall in the Rio do Peixe Valley: Part III - Risk of extreme events

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Álvaro J. Back

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Understanding the risks of extreme events related to soil erosion is important for adequate dimensioning of erosion and runoff control structures. The objective of this study was to determine the rainfall erosivity with different return periods for the Valley of the Rio do Peixe in Santa Catarina state, Brazil. Daily pluviographic data series from 1984 to 2014 from the Campos Novos, and Videira meteorological stations and from 1986 to 2014 from the Caçador station were used. The data series of maximum annual rainfall intensity in 30 min, maximum annual erosive rainfall, and total annual erosivity were analyzed for each station. The Gumbel-Chow distributions were adjusted and their adhesions were evaluated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at a significance level of 5%. The Gumbel-Chow distribution was adequate for the estimation of all studied variables. The mean annual erosivity corresponds to the return period of 2.25 years. The data series of the annual maximum individual rainfall erosivity coefficients varied from 47 to 50%.

Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overflow performance

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Szeląg Bartosz

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overfl ow performance. This research study analyzes the effect of the rainfall characteristics (total and maximum 10-, 15- and 30-minute rainfall depth, its duration, the dry weather period on the performance of the emergency overflow weir located at the inflow to an existing treatment plant. The analyses used the numerical calculation results of the inflow hydrographs performed in the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model program on the basis of six-year-long rainfall measurement sequence. The obtained simulation results for the analysed catchment allowed for the performance of statistical analyses, which demonstrated that the volume of stormwater discharge, the maximum instantaneous flow and the share of stormwater volume discharged through the emergency overflow weir in relation to the total volume of the inflow hydrograph from the catchment are affected by the maximum 30-minute rainfall depth, whereas the discharge duration is affected by the depth of the catchment rainfall layer. Taking into account the results of statistical and hydraulic calculations it can be concluded that in the case of the analysed catchment the performance of the emergency overflow weir is affected to the greatest extent by the rainfall intensity distribution.

Feasibility Study on the Satellite Rainfall Data for Prediction of Sediment- Related Disaster by the Japanese Prediction Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Shimizu, Y.; Ishizuka, T.; Osanai, N.; Okazumi, T.

2014-12-01

In this study, the sediment-related disaster prediction method which based ground gauged rainfall-data, currently practiced in Japan was coupled with satellite rainfall data and applied to domestic large-scale sediment-related disasters. The study confirmed the feasibility of this integrated method. In Asia, large-scale sediment-related disasters which can sweep away an entire settlement occur frequently. Leyte Island suffered from a huge landslide in 2004, and Typhoon Molakot in 2009 caused huge landslides in Taiwan. In the event of these sediment-related disasters, immediate responses by central and local governments are crucial in crisis management. In general, there are not enough rainfall gauge stations in developing countries. Therefore national and local governments have little information to determine the risk level of water induced disasters in their service areas. In the Japanese methodology, a criterion is set by combining two indices: the short-term rainfall index and long-term rainfall index. The short-term rainfall index is defined as the 60-minute total rainfall; the long-term rainfall index as the soil-water index, which is an estimation of the retention status of fallen rainfall in soil. In July 2009, a high-density sediment related disaster, or a debris flow, occurred in Hofu City of Yamaguchi Prefecture, in the western region of Japan. This event was calculated by the Japanese standard methodology, and then analyzed for its feasibility. Hourly satellite based rainfall has underestimates compared with ground based rainfall data. Long-term index correlates with each other. Therefore, this study confirmed that it is possible to deliver information on the risk level of sediment-related disasters such as shallow landslides and debris flows. The prediction method tested in this study is expected to assist for timely emergency responses to rainfall-induced natural disasters in sparsely gauged areas. As the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Plan

Rainfall simulators - innovations seeking rainfall uniformity and automatic flow rate measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Miroslav; Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef

2016-04-01

Field rainfall simulators are used worldwide for many experimental purposes, such as runoff generation and soil erosion research. At CTU in Prague a laboratory simulator with swinging nozzles VeeJet has been operated since 2001. Since 2012 an additional terrain simulator is being used with 4 fixed FullJet 40WSQ nozzles with 2,4 m spacing and operating over two simultaneously sprinkled experimental plots sizing 8x2 and 1x1 m. In parallel to other research projects a specific problem was solved: improving rainfall spatial uniformity and overall intensity and surface runoff measurements. These fundamental variables significantly affect investigated processes as well as resulting water balance of the plot, therefore they need to be determined as accurately as possible. Although the original nozzles setting produced (commonly used) Christiansen uniformity index CU over 80 %, detailed measurements proved this index insufficient and showed many unrequired rainfall extremes within the plot. Moreover the number of rainfall intensity scenarios was limited and some of them required problematic multi-pressure operation of the water distribution system. Therefore the simulator was subjected to many substantial changes in 2015. Innovations ranged from pump intensification to control unit upgrade. As essential change was considered increase in number of nozzles to 9 in total and reducing their spacing to 1,2 m. However new uniformity measurements did not bring any significant improvement. Tested scenarios showed equal standard deviations of interpolated intensity rasters and equal or slightly lower CU index. Imperfections of sprinkling nozzles were found to be the limiting factor. Still many other benefits were brought with the new setup. Whole experimental plot 10x2 m is better covered with the rainfall while the water consumption is retained. Nozzles are triggered in triplets, which enables more rainfall intensity scenarios. Water distribution system is more stable due to

Examining spatial-temporal variability and prediction of rainfall in North-eastern Nigeria

Science.gov (United States)

Muhammed, B. U.; Kaduk, J.; Balzter, H.

2012-12-01

In the last 50 years rainfall in North-eastern Nigeria under the influence of the West African Monsoon (WAM) has been characterised by large annual variations with severe droughts recorded in 1967-1973, and 1983-1987. This variability in rainfall has a large impact on the regions agricultural output, economy and security where the majority of the people depend on subsistence agriculture. In the 1990s there was a sign of recovery with higher annual rainfall totals compared to the 1961-1990 period but annual totals were slightly above the long term mean for the century. In this study we examine how significant this recovery is by analysing medium-term (1980-2006) rainfall of the region using the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) precipitation ½ degree, 6 hourly reanalysis data set. Percentage coefficient of variation increases northwards for annual rainfall (10%-35%) and the number of rainy days (10%-50%). The standardized precipitation index (SPI) of the area shows 7 years during the period as very wet (1996, 1999, 2003 and 2004) with SPI≥1.5 and moderately wet (1993, 1998, and 2006) with values of 1.0≥SPI≤1.49. Annual rainfall indicates a recovery from the 1990s and onwards but significant increases (in the amount of rainfall and number of days recorded with rainfall) is only during the peak of the monsoon season in the months of August and September (pARIMA) model. The model is further evaluated using 24 months rainfall data yielding r=0.79 (regression slope=0.8; pARIMA model and the rainfall data used for this study indicates that the model can be satisfactorily used in forecasting rainfall in the in the sub-humid part of North-eastern Nigeria over a 24 months period.

Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain events, and number of dry days in San Juan, Puerto Rico, 1955-2009

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Pablo A. Méndez-Lázaro

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Climate variability is a threat to water resources on a global scale and in tropical regions in particular. Rainfall events and patterns are associated worldwide with natural disasters like mudslides and landslides, meteorological phenomena like hurricanes, risks/hazards including severe storms and flooding, and health effects like vector-borne and waterborne diseases. Therefore, in the context of global change, research on rainfall patterns and their variations presents a challenge to the scientific community. The main objective of this research was to analyze recent trends in precipitation in the San Juan metropolitan area in Puerto Rico and their relationship with regional and global climate variations. The statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. All stations showed positive trends of increasing annual rainfall between 1955 and 2009. The winter months of January and February had an increase in monthly rainfall, although winter is normally a dry season on the island. Regarding dry days, we found an annual decreasing trend, also specifically in winter. In terms of numbers of severe rainfall events described as more than 78 mm in 24 hours, 63 episodes have occurred in the San Juan area in the last decade, specifically in the 2000-2009 time frame, with an average of 6 severe events per year. The majority of the episodes occurred in summer, more frequently in August and September. These results can be seen as a clear example of the complexity of spatial and temporal of rainfall distribution over a tropical city.

Temperature Crosstalk Sensitivity of the Kummerow Rainfall Algorithm

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Spencer, Roy W.; Petrenko, Boris

1999-01-01

Even though the signal source for passive microwave retrievals is thermal emission, retrievals of non-temperature geophysical parameters typically do not explicitly take into account the effects of temperature change on the retrievals. For global change research, changes in geophysical parameters (e.g. water vapor, rainfall, etc.) are referenced to the accompanying changes in temperature. If the retrieval of a certain parameter has a cross-talk response from temperature change alone, the retrievals might not be very useful for climate research. We investigated the sensitivity of the Kummerow rainfall retrieval algorithm to changes in air temperature. It was found that there was little net change in total rainfall with air temperature change. However, there were non-negligible changes within individual rain rate categories.

Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Rainfall by Combining BME Theory and Satellite Rainfall Estimates

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Tingting Shi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The accurate assessment of spatiotemporal rainfall variability is a crucial and challenging task in many hydrological applications, mainly due to the lack of a sufficient number of rain gauges. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of annual and monthly rainfall over Fujian province in China by combining the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME method and satellite rainfall estimates. Specifically, based on annual and monthly rainfall data at 20 meteorological stations from 2000 to 2012, (1 the BME method with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM estimates considered as soft data, (2 ordinary kriging (OK and (3 cokriging (CK were employed to model the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall in Fujian province. Subsequently, the performance of these methods was evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results demonstrated that BME with TRMM as soft data (BME-TRMM performed better than the other two methods, generating rainfall maps that represented the local rainfall disparities in a more realistic manner. Of the three interpolation (mapping methods, the mean absolute error (MAE and root mean square error (RMSE values of the BME-TRMM method were the smallest. In conclusion, the BME-TRMM method improved spatiotemporal rainfall modeling and mapping by integrating hard data and soft information. Lastly, the study identified new opportunities concerning the application of TRMM rainfall estimates.

Rainfall erosivity factor estimation in Republic of Moldova

Science.gov (United States)

Castraveš, Tudor; Kuhn, Nikolaus

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity represents a measure of the erosive force of rainfall. Typically, it is expressed as variable such as the R factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1965, 1978) or its derivates. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event (EI30) is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 minutes intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable for wide regions and countries. Usually, there are three issues regarding precipitation data: low temporal resolution, low spatial density and limited access to the data. This is especially true for some of postsoviet countries from Eastern Europe, such as Republic of Moldova, where soil erosion is a real and persistent problem (Summer, 2003) and where soils represents the main natural resource of the country. Consequently, researching and managing soil erosion is particularly important. The purpose of this study is to develop a model based on commonly available rainfall data, such as event, daily or monthly amounts, to calculate rainfall erosivity for the territory of Republic of Moldova. Rainfall data collected during 1994-2015 period at 15 meteorological stations in the Republic of Moldova, with 10 minutes temporal resolution, were used to develop and calibrate a model to generate an erosivity map of Moldova. References 1. Summer, W., (2003). Soil erosion in the Republic of Moldova — the importance of institutional arrangements. Erosion Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Integrating Methods and Techniques (Proceedings of symposium HS01 held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo. July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 279. 2. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1965). Predicting rainfall-erosion losses from cropland east of the Rocky Mountains. Agr. Handbook No. 282, U.S. Dept. Agr., Washington, DC 3. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1978). Predicting rainfall erosion losses. Agr. handbook No. 537, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Science and Education Administration.

Developing Methods For Linking Surficial Aquifers With Localized Rainfall Data

Science.gov (United States)

Lafrenz, W. B.; van Gaalen, J. F.

2008-12-01

Water level hydrographs of the surficial aquifer can be evaluated to identify both the cause and consequence of water supply development. Rainfall, as a source of direct recharge and as a source of delayed or compounded recharge, is often the largest influence on surficial aquifer water level responses. It is clear that proximity of the rain gauge to the observation well is a factor in the degree of correlation, but in central Florida, USA, rainfall patterns change seasonally, with latitude, and with distance from the coast . Thus, for a location in central Florida, correlation of rain events with observed hydrograph responses depends on both distance and direction from an observation well to a rain gauge. In this study, we examine the use of extreme value analysis as a method of selecting the best rainfall data set for describing a given surficial aquifer monitor well. A surficial aquifer monitor well with a substantial suite of data is compared to a series of rainfall data sets from gauges ranging from meters to tens of kilometers in distance from the monitor well. The gauges vary in a wide range of directions from the monitor well in an attempt to identify both a method for rainfall gauge selection to be associated with the monitor well. Each rainfall gauge is described by a correlation coefficient with respect to the surficial aquifer water level data.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

2000-10-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus P.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Huffaker, Ray G.

2017-12-01

With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a 2-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall. Here, the year with more intense, less-frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.

Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for groundwater recharge estimation in west coastal South Africa. ... the data from Oudebosch with different rainfall and groundwater abstraction inputs are simulated to explore individual effects on water levels as well as recharge rate estimated on a daily basis.

Soil erosion under multiple time-varying rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Heng, B. C. Peter; Barry, D. Andrew; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Sander, Graham C.

2010-05-01

Soil erosion is a function of many factors and process interactions. An erosion event produces changes in surface soil properties such as texture and hydraulic conductivity. These changes in turn alter the erosion response to subsequent events. Laboratory-scale soil erosion studies have typically focused on single independent rainfall events with constant rainfall intensities. This study investigates the effect of multiple time-varying rainfall events on soil erosion using the EPFL erosion flume. The rainfall simulator comprises ten Veejet nozzles mounted on oscillating bars 3 m above a 6 m × 2 m flume. Spray from the nozzles is applied onto the soil surface in sweeps; rainfall intensity is thus controlled by varying the sweeping frequency. Freshly-prepared soil with a uniform slope was subjected to five rainfall events at daily intervals. In each 3-h event, rainfall intensity was ramped up linearly to a maximum of 60 mm/h and then stepped down to zero. Runoff samples were collected and analysed for particle size distribution (PSD) as well as total sediment concentration. We investigate whether there is a hysteretic relationship between sediment concentration and discharge within each event and how this relationship changes from event to event. Trends in the PSD of the eroded sediment are discussed and correlated with changes in sediment concentration. Close-up imagery of the soil surface following each event highlight changes in surface soil structure with time. This study enhances our understanding of erosion processes in the field, with corresponding implications for soil erosion modelling.

Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

2016-01-01

The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Álvaro José Back

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

Be-7 measured at ground air level and rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damatto, Sandra R.; Souza, Joseilton M.; Frujuele, Jonatan V.; Maduar, Marcelo F.; Leonardo, Lucio; Pecequilo, Brigitte R.S.

2013-01-01

The cosmogenic radionuclide 7 Be (T 1/2 = 53.3 d), produced in the upper atmosphere by cosmic ray spallation of oxygen and nitrogen, is one of the cosmogenic radionuclides that can be used as tracer for heavy metals and pollutants in the environment, tracer of soil erosion and sedimentation in lakes, among other examples. Their subsequent deposition to the land surface occurs as both wet and dry fallout, although it has been demonstrated that 7 Be fallout is primarily associated with precipitation. There is limited data on the concentration of 7 Be in rainfall and in particulate in the Southern Hemisphere and in Brazil, compared with data from the Northern Hemisphere. This paper presents the results obtained of 7 Be concentrations measured from April 2011 to June 2013, in samples of air at ground level, each fifteen days, and rainfall in all the rainy events that occurred at Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), which has its campus located in the city of Sao Paulo, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The concentrations of 7 Be were measured by non-destructive gamma-ray spectrometry using an extended range closed-end coaxial Be-layer HPGe detector with 25% relative efficiency and associated electronic devices and live counting time varying from 100,000 s to 300,000 s. The results obtained of 7 Be in particulate and in rainfall were correlated to seasons, precipitation, temperature and sunspot number. The higher values obtained for the concentrations were in spring and summer time presenting good correlations with the amount of precipitation and sunspot number and a clear seasonal variation. (author)

Rainfall: State of the Science

Science.gov (United States)

Testik, Firat Y.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

Rainfall: State of the Science offers the most up-to-date knowledge on the fundamental and practical aspects of rainfall. Each chapter, self-contained and written by prominent scientists in their respective fields, provides three forms of information: fundamental principles, detailed overview of current knowledge and description of existing methods, and emerging techniques and future research directions. The book discusses • Rainfall microphysics: raindrop morphodynamics, interactions, size distribution, and evolution • Rainfall measurement and estimation: ground-based direct measurement (disdrometer and rain gauge), weather radar rainfall estimation, polarimetric radar rainfall estimation, and satellite rainfall estimation • Statistical analyses: intensity-duration-frequency curves, frequency analysis of extreme events, spatial analyses, simulation and disaggregation, ensemble approach for radar rainfall uncertainty, and uncertainty analysis of satellite rainfall products The book is tailored to be an indispensable reference for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students who study any aspect of rainfall or utilize rainfall information in various science and engineering disciplines.

Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

2015-12-01

The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

[Monitoring and analysis on evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality in urban area].

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Wen; Li, Huai-En; Li, Jia-Ke

2013-02-01

In order to find the water quality evolution law and pollution characteristics of the rainfall runoff from undisturbed to the neighborhood exit, 6 times evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality were monitored and analyzed from July to October in 2011, and contrasted the clarification efficiency of the grassland to the roof runoff rudimentarily at the same time. The research showed: 1. the results of the comparison from "undisturbed, rainfall-roof, rainfall runoff-road, rainfall-runoff the neighborhood exit runoff " showed that the water quality of the undisturbed rain was better than that from the roof and the neighborhood exist, but the road rainfall runoff water quality was the worst; 2. the average concentrations of the parameters such as COD, ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen all exceeded the Fifth Class of the Surface Water Quality Standard except for the soluble total phosphorus from undisturbed rainfall to the neighborhood exit; 3. the runoff water quality of the short early fine days was better than that of long early fine days, and the last runoff water quality was better than that of the initial runoff in the same rainfall process; 4. the concentration reduction of the grassland was notable, and the reduction rate of the grassland which is 1.0 meter wide of the roof runoff pollutants such as COD and nitrogen reached 30%.

Ecohydrology of managed ecosystems: Linking rainfall unpredictability, agronomic performance, and sustainable water use

Science.gov (United States)

Vico, Giulia; Porporato, Amilcare

2014-05-01

The field of ecohydrology, traditionally focusing on natural ecosystems, can offer the necessary quantitative tools to assess and compare the sustainability of agriculture across climates, soil types, crops, and irrigation strategies, including rainfall unpredictability. In particular, irrigation is one of the main strategies to enhance and stabilize agricultural productivity, but represents a cost in terms of often scarce water resources. Here, the sustainability of irrigated and rainfed agriculture is assessed by means of water productivity (defined as the ratio between yield and total supplied water), yields, water requirements, and their variability. These indicators are quantified using a probabilistic description of the soil water balance and crop development. Employing this framework, we interpret changes in water productivity as total water input is altered, in two staple crops (maize and wheat) grown under different soils, climates, and irrigation strategies. Climate change scenarios are explored by using the same approach and altering the rainfall statistics. For a given irrigation strategy, intermediate rainfall inputs leads to the highest variability in yield and irrigation water requirement - it is under these conditions that water management is most problematic. When considering the contrasting needs of limiting water requirements while ensuring adequate yields, micro-irrigation emerges as the most sustainable strategy at the field level, although consideration should be given to its profitability and long-term environmental implications.

Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide in Sicily

Science.gov (United States)

Caracciolo, Domenico; Arnone, Elisa; Noto, Leonardo V.

2015-04-01

Rainfall is the primary trigger of shallow landslides that can cause fatalities, damage to properties and economic losses in many areas of the world. For this reason, determining the rainfall amount/intensity responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to mitigate the related risk and save lives. Efforts have been made in different countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to define landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. The rainfall thresholds are generally described by a functional relationship of power in terms of cumulated or intensity event rainfall-duration, whose parameters are estimated empirically from the analysis of historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. The aim of this paper is the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy, by focusing particularly on the role of the antecedent wet conditions. The creation of the appropriate landslide-rainfall database likely represents one of main efforts in this type of analysis. For this work, historical landslide events occurred in Sicily from 1919 to 2001 were selected from the archive of the Sistema Informativo sulle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche, developed under the project Aree Vulnerabili Italiane. The corresponding triggering precipitations were screened from the raingauges network in Sicily, maintained by the Osservatorio delle Acque - Agenzia Regionale per i Rifiuti e le Acque. In particular, a detailed analysis was carried out to identify and reconstruct the hourly rainfall events that caused the selected landslides. A bootstrapping statistical technique has been used to determine the uncertainties associated with the threshold parameters. The rainfall thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 10%, were defined in terms of cumulated event rainfall, E, and rainfall duration, D. The role of rainfall prior to the damaging events was taken into account by including in the analysis

The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

1999-01-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

[Effects of rainfall intensity on rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on Loess slope land].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yi; Shao, Ming'an

2006-12-01

With simulation test, this paper studied the patterns of rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on typical Loess slope land, and analyzed the quantitative relations between the infiltration and redistribution and the movement of soil water and mass, with rainfall intensity as the main affecting factor. The results showed that rainfall intensity had significant effects on the rainfall infiltration and water redistribution in soil, and the microcosmic movement of soil water. The larger the rainfall intensity, the deeper the wetting front of rainfall infiltration and redistribution was, and the wetting front of soil water redistribution had a slower increase velocity than that of rainfall infiltration. The power function of the wetting front with time, and also with rainfall intensity, was fitted well. There was also a quantitative relation between the wetting front of rainfall redistribution and the duration of rainfall. The larger the rainfall intensity, the higher the initial and steady infiltration rates were, and the cumulative infiltration increased faster with time. Moreover, the larger the rainfall intensity, the smaller the wetting front difference was at the top and the end of the slope. With the larger rainfall intensity, both the difference of soil water content and its descending trend between soil layers became more obvious during the redistribution process on slope land.

Characteristics of PAHs in farmland soil and rainfall runoff in Tianjin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Rongguang; Xu, Mengmeng; Liu, Aifeng; Tian, Yong; Zhao, Zongshan

2017-10-14

Rainfall runoff can remove certain amounts of pollutants from contaminated farmland soil and result in a decline in water quality. However, the leaching behaviors of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) with rainfall have been rarely reported due to wide variations in the soil compositions, rainfall conditions, and sources of soil PAHs in complex farmland ecosystems. In this paper, the levels, spatial distributions, and composition profiles of PAHs in 30 farmland soil samples and 49 rainfall-runoff samples from the Tianjin region in 2012 were studied to investigate their leaching behaviors caused by rainfall runoff. The contents of the Σ 16 PAHs ranged from 58.53 to 3137.90 μg/kg in the soil and 146.58 to 3636.59 μg/L in the runoff. In total, most of the soil sampling sites (23 of 30) were contaminated, and biomass and petroleum combustion were proposed as the main sources of the soil PAHs. Both the spatial distributions of the soil and the runoff PAHs show a decreasing trend moving away from the downtown, which suggested that the leaching behaviors of PAHs in a larger region during rainfall may be mainly affected by the compounds themselves. In addition, 4- and 5-ring PAHs are the dominant components in farmland soil and 3- and 4-ring PAHs dominate the runoff. Comparisons of the PAH pairs and enrichment ratios showed that acenaphthylene, acenaphthene, benzo[a]anthracene, chrysene, and fluoranthene were more easily transferred into water systems from soil than benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, benzo[ghi]perylene, and indeno[123-cd]pyrene, which indicated that PAHs with low molecular weight are preferentially dissolved due to their higher solubility compared to those with high molecular weight.

Effects of Rainfall Characteristics on the Stability of Tropical Residual Soil Slope

OpenAIRE

Rahardjo Harianto; Satyanaga Alfrendo; Leong Eng Choon

2016-01-01

Global climate change has a significant impact on rainfall characteristics, sea water level and groundwater table. Changes in rainfall characteristics may affect stability of slopes and have severe impacts on sustainable urban living. Information on the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall is often required by geotechnical engineers for performing slope stability analyses. Many seepage analyses are commonly performed using the most extreme rainfall possible which is uneconomical in d...

Darfur: rainfall and conflict

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

2008-01-01

Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972-2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa

Darfur: rainfall and conflict

Science.gov (United States)

Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

2008-07-01

Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972 2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa.

The all-year rainfall region of South Africa: Satellite rainfall-estimate perspective

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, CJ

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Climate predictability and variability studies over South Africa typically focus on the summer rainfall region and to a lesser extent on the winter rainfall region. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa, a narrow strip located along the Cape...

A simple stochastic rainstorm generator for simulating spatially and temporally varying rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Singer, M. B.; Michaelides, K.; Nichols, M.; Nearing, M. A.

2016-12-01

In semi-arid to arid drainage basins, rainstorms often control both water supply and flood risk to marginal communities of people. They also govern the availability of water to vegetation and other ecological communities, as well as spatial patterns of sediment, nutrient, and contaminant transport and deposition on local to basin scales. All of these landscape responses are sensitive to changes in climate that are projected to occur throughout western North America. Thus, it is important to improve characterization of rainstorms in a manner that enables statistical assessment of rainfall at spatial scales below that of existing gauging networks and the prediction of plausible manifestations of climate change. Here we present a simple, stochastic rainstorm generator that was created using data from a rich and dense network of rain gauges at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in SE Arizona, but which is applicable anywhere. We describe our methods for assembling pdfs of relevant rainstorm characteristics including total annual rainfall, storm area, storm center location, and storm duration. We also generate five fitted intensity-duration curves and apply a spatial rainfall gradient to generate precipitation at spatial scales below gauge spacing. The model then runs by Monte Carlo simulation in which a total annual rainfall is selected before we generate rainstorms until the annual precipitation total is reached. The procedure continues for decadal simulations. Thus, we keep track of the hydrologic impact of individual storms and the integral of precipitation over multiple decades. We first test the model using ensemble predictions until we reach statistical similarity to the input data from WGEW. We then employ the model to assess decadal precipitation under simulations of climate change in which we separately vary the distribution of total annual rainfall (trend in moisture) and the intensity-duration curves used for simulation (trends in storminess). We

A protocol for conducting rainfall simulation to study soil runoff.

Science.gov (United States)

Kibet, Leonard C; Saporito, Louis S; Allen, Arthur L; May, Eric B; Kleinman, Peter J A; Hashem, Fawzy M; Bryant, Ray B

2014-04-03

Rainfall is a driving force for the transport of environmental contaminants from agricultural soils to surficial water bodies via surface runoff. The objective of this study was to characterize the effects of antecedent soil moisture content on the fate and transport of surface applied commercial urea, a common form of nitrogen (N) fertilizer, following a rainfall event that occurs within 24 hr after fertilizer application. Although urea is assumed to be readily hydrolyzed to ammonium and therefore not often available for transport, recent studies suggest that urea can be transported from agricultural soils to coastal waters where it is implicated in harmful algal blooms. A rainfall simulator was used to apply a consistent rate of uniform rainfall across packed soil boxes that had been prewetted to different soil moisture contents. By controlling rainfall and soil physical characteristics, the effects of antecedent soil moisture on urea loss were isolated. Wetter soils exhibited shorter time from rainfall initiation to runoff initiation, greater total volume of runoff, higher urea concentrations in runoff, and greater mass loadings of urea in runoff. These results also demonstrate the importance of controlling for antecedent soil moisture content in studies designed to isolate other variables, such as soil physical or chemical characteristics, slope, soil cover, management, or rainfall characteristics. Because rainfall simulators are designed to deliver raindrops of similar size and velocity as natural rainfall, studies conducted under a standardized protocol can yield valuable data that, in turn, can be used to develop models for predicting the fate and transport of pollutants in runoff.

The Use of Rainfall Variability in Flood Countermeasure Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iis Catur Wulan Dhari

2017-09-01

Full Text Available One of the impacts of climate change is the unpredictable shifting of seasons and rainfall patterns which caused flooding. Rejoso Watershed in Pasuruan Regency is one of the watersheds that suffer from flooding almost every year due to watershed degradation characterized by land conversion and changes in the hydrological behavior including the extreme rainfall pattern. This research was aimed to investigate the effect of rainfall variability on runoff and floodwater level profile along the river channel to provide technical and non-technical recommendation for handling flood problems. The hydrological analysis was performed using HEC-HMS version 4.0 software and the hydraulic analysis was conducted using HEC-RAS version 5.0.3 software. Several variations of extreme rainfall pattern were applied in the rainfall-runoff calculation to determine the representative flood discharges that will be used as input to the hydraulic simulation for evaluating the characteristics of flood water level. The result of the research shows that rainfall with the same depth yet varies in duration and starting time generate different flood hydrographs. Rejoso River could not store flood discharge with return period of 2 years with peak discharge of 201.46 m3/s that causing overflow along the stream. The recommendation to handle flood problems is by normalization, which could reduce the overtopping at several river reaches of 4,927 m, while the combination of normalization and embankment could reduce 7,843 m from the existing river length of 12,396 m.

Joint impact of rainfall and tidal level on flood risk in a coastal city with a complex river network: a case study of Fuzhou City, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Lian

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, and storms. The combined effect of multiple sources and the joint probability of extremes should be considered to assess and manage flood risk better. This paper aims to study the combined effect of rainfall and the tidal level of the receiving water body on flood probability and severity in Fuzhou City, which has a complex river network. Flood severity under a range of precipitation intensities, with return periods (RPs of 5 yr to 100 yr, and tidal levels was assessed through a hydrodynamic model verified by data observed during Typhoon Longwang in 2005. According to the percentages of the river network where flooding occurred, the threshold conditions for flood severity were estimated in two scenarios: with and without working pumps. In Fuzhou City, working pumps efficiently reduce flood risk from precipitation within a 20-yr RP. However, the pumps may not work efficiently when rainfall exceeds a 100-yr RP because of the limited conveyance capacity of the river network. Joint risk probability was estimated through the optimal copula. The joint probability of rainfall and tidal level both exceeding their threshold values is very low, and the greatest threat in Fuzhou comes from heavy rainfall. However, the tidal level poses an extra risk of flood. Given that this extra risk is ignored in the design of flood defense in Fuzhou, flood frequency and severity may be higher than understood during design.

Responses of diatom communities to hydrological processes during rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Naicheng; Faber, Claas; Ulrich, Uta; Fohrer, Nicola

2015-04-01

The importance of diatoms as a tracer of hydrological processes has been recently recognized (Pfister et al. 2009, Pfister et al. 2011, Tauro et al. 2013). However, diatom variations in a short-term scale (e.g., sub-daily) during rainfall events have not been well documented yet. In this study, rainfall event-based diatom samples were taken at the outlet of the Kielstau catchment (50 km2), a lowland catchment in northern Germany. A total of nine rainfall events were caught from May 2013 to April 2014. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) revealed that diatom communities of different events were well separated along NMDS axis I and II, indicating a remarkable temporal variation. By correlating water level (a proxy of discharge) and different diatom indices, close relationships were found. For example, species richness, biovolume (μm3), Shannon diversity and moisture index01 (%, classified according to van Dam et al. 1994) were positively related with water level at the beginning phase of the rainfall (i.e. increasing limb of discharge peak). However, in contrast, during the recession limb of the discharge peak, diatom indices showed distinct responses to water level declines in different rainfall events. These preliminary results indicate that diatom indices are highly related to hydrological processes. The next steps will include finding out the possible mechanisms of the above phenomena, and exploring the contributions of abiotic variables (e.g., hydrologic indices, nutrients) to diatom community patterns. Based on this and ongoing studies (Wu et al. unpublished data), we will incorporate diatom data into End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) and select the tracer set that is best suited for separation of different runoff components in our study catchment. Keywords: Diatoms, Rainfall event, Non-metric multidimensional scaling, Hydrological process, Indices References: Pfister L, McDonnell JJ, Wrede S, Hlúbiková D, Matgen P, Fenicia F, Ector L, Hoffmann L

Characteristics of Rainfall-Discharge and Water Quality at Limboto Lake, Gorontalo, Indonesia

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Luki Subehi

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Problems of high turbidity, sedimentation, water pollution and siltation occur at Limboto Lake, Gorontalo, Indonesia. The objective of this study was to analyze the rainfall-discharge relationship and its implications for water quality conditions. Secchi disk (water transparency, chlorophyll-a (chl-a, and total organic matter (TOM were measured in May 2012, September 2012 and March 2013 at three sites of the lake (L-1, L-2 and L-3 to observe the impacts on the surrounding catchment. Based on representative stations for rainfall data from 2004 to 2013, monthly averages of rainfall in March-May (166.7 mm and September (76.4 mm were used to represent the wet and dry period, respectively. Moreover, sediment traps at these three sites were installed in September 2012. Based on the analysis it is suggested that rainfall magnitude and land use change at the Alopohu River catchment influenced the amount of materials flowing into the lake, degrading the water quality. Specifically, the higher average rainfall in May (184.5 mm gave a higher average total sediment load (4.41 g/L/day. In addition, water transparency decreased with increasing chl-a. This indicates that the concentrations of sediment and nutrients, reflected by the high amount of chl-a, influenced the water quality conditions.

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Tocantins-Araguaia hydrographic region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glauber Epifanio Loureiro

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Current paper examines the space-time dynamics of yearly rainfall of the Tocantins-Araguaia Hydrographic Region (TAHR, foregrounded on rainfall volume from isohyet maps and interpolated by Kriging geo-statistical method.  Rainfall space dynamics was undertaken by the analysis of descriptive statistics, Index of Meteorological Irregularity (IMI and Variation Coefficient. Temporal dynamics was analyzed through the distribution of total annual volume precipitation for each TAHR sub-basin by the Standardized Anomaly Index, trend and magnitude test provided by Mann-Kendall and Sen Tests. Results correlated with meteorological anomalies of the Atlantic (Dipole and Pacific (ENOS Oceans show a highly heterogeneous rainfall behavior with temporal variability. Or rather, a decrease of rainfall extensiveness during years of intense meteorological anomaly with a rainfall increase south of the High Tocantins and Araguaia sub-basins and a decrease of rainfall in the Lower Tocantins sub-basin, with El Niño features. Although the Mann-Kendall test does not show statistically a significant trend for rainfall in the TAHR region, Sen’s estimator reveals a decrease in rainfall in the High Tocantins (-1.24 km³ year-1 and Araguaia (-1.13 km³ year-1 sub-basins and a rainfall increase in the Lower Tocantins sub-basin (0.53 km³ year-1 and in the TAHR region (-1.5 km³ year-1.

How is rainfall interception in urban area affected by meteorological parameters?

Science.gov (United States)

Zabret, Katarina; Rakovec, Jože; Mikoš, Matjaž; Šraj, Mojca

2017-04-01

Rainfall interception is part of the hydrological cycle. Precipitation, which hits vegetation, is retained on the leaves and branches, from which it eventually evaporates into the atmosphere (interception) or reaches the ground by dripping from the canopy, falling through the gaps (throughfall) and running down the stems (stemflow). The amount of rainfall reaching the ground depends on various meteorological and vegetation parameters. Rainfall, throughfall and stemflow have been measured in the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia since the beginning of 2014. Manual and automatic measurements are performed regularly under Betula pendula and Pinus nigra trees in urban area. In 2014, there were detected 178 rainfall events with total amount of 1672.1 mm. In average B. pendula intercepted 44% of rainfall and P. nigra intercepted 72% of rainfall. In 2015 we have detected 117 events with 1047.4 mm of rainfall, of which 37% was intercepted by B. pendula and 60% by P. nigra. The effect of various meteorological parameters on the rainfall interception was analysed in the study. The parameters included in the analysis were rainfall rate, rainfall duration, drop size distribution (average drop velocity and diameter), average wind speed, and average temperature. The results demonstrate decreasing rainfall interception with longer rainfall duration and higher rainfall intensity although the impact of the latter one is not statistically significant. In the case of very fast or very slow rainfall drops, the interception is higher than for the mean rain drop velocity values. In the case of P. nigra the impact of the rain drop diameter on interception is similar to the one of rain drop velocity while for B. pendula increasing of drop diameter also increases the interception. As expected, interception is higher for warmer events. This trend is more evident for P. nigra than for B. pendula. Furthermore, the amount of intercepted rainfall also increases with wind although it could be

EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR MEDITERRANEAN SUBCATCHMENTS

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A. Cilek

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

Nowcasting of rainfall and of combined sewage flow in urban drainage systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Achleitner, Stefan; Fach, Stefan; Einfalt, Thomas; Rauch, Wolfgang

2009-01-01

Nowcasting of rainfall may be used additionally to online rain measurements to optimize the operation of urban drainage systems. Uncertainties quoted for the rain volume are in the range of 5% to 10% mean square error (MSE), where for rain intensities 45% to 75% MSE are noted. For larger forecast periods up to 3 hours, the uncertainties will increase up to some hundred percents. Combined with the growing number of real time control concepts in sewer systems, rainfall forecast is used more and more in urban drainage systems. Therefore it is of interest how the uncertainties influence the final evaluation of a defined objective function. Uncertainty levels associated with the forecast itself are not necessarily transferable to resulting uncertainties in the catchment's flow dynamics. The aim of this paper is to analyse forecasts of rainfall and specific sewer output variables. For this study the combined sewer system of the city of Linz in the northern part of Austria located on the Danube has been selected. The city itself represents a total area of 96 km2 with 39 municipalities connected. It was found that the available weather radar data leads to large deviations in the forecast for precipitation at forecast horizons larger than 90 minutes. The same is true for sewer variables such a CSO overflow for small sub-catchments. Although the results improve for larger spatial scales, acceptable levels at forecast horizons larger than 90 minutes are not reached.

Sensitivity of point scale surface runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. J. Hearman

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff at the point scale. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to three locations in Western Australia, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitioned water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store were controlled by thresholds. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and in turn, relating these to average storm intensities. For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (k* and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln k*=0.4 and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln k*>2 for all three rainfall locations tested. For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating drainage coefficients to average storm intensities (g* and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by infiltration excess or saturation excess depending on the resolution of rainfall data were determined (ln g*<2. Infiltration excess predicted from high resolution rainfall was short and intense, whereas saturation excess produced from low resolution rainfall was more constant and less intense. This has important implications for the accuracy of current hydrological models that use time

Recent trends in rainfall and temperature over North West India during 1871-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Saxena, Rani; Mathur, Prasoon

2018-03-01

Rainfall and temperature are the most important environmental factors influencing crop growth, development, and yield. The northwestern (NW) part of India is one of the main regions of food grain production of the country. It comprises of six meteorological subdivisions (Haryana, Punjab, West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Gujarat and Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu). In this study, attempts were made to study variability and trends in rainfall and temperature during 30-year climate normal periods (CN) and 10-year decadal excess or deficit rainfall frequency during the historical period from 1871 to 2016. The Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rank correlation (Spearman's rho) tests were used to determine significance of trends. Least square linear fitting method was adopted to find out the slopes of the trend lines. The long-term mean annual rainfall over North West India is 587.7 mm (standard deviation of 153.0 mm and coefficient of variation 26.0). There was increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperatures during post monsoon season in entire study period and current climate normal period (1991-2016) due to which the sowing of rabi season crops may be delayed and there may be germination problem too. There was a non-significant decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season and an increasing trend in rainfall during post monsoon over North West India during entire study period. During current CN5 (1991-2016), all the subdivision (except the Saurashtra region) showed a decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season which is a matter of concern for kharif crops and those rabi crops which are grown as rainfed on conserved soil moisture. The decadal annual and seasonal frequencies of excess and deficit years results revealed that the annual total deficit rainfall years (24) exceeded total excess rainfall years (22) in North West India during the entire study period. While during the current decadal period (2011 to 2016), single year was the excess year and 2 years were

Monsoon effect simulation on typhoon rainfall potential - Typhoon Morakot (2009

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Yi-Ling Chang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A record breaking extreme precipitation event produced 3000 mm day-1 of accumulated rainfall over southern Taiwan in August 2009. The interactions between Typhoon Morakot and the prevailing southwesterly (SW monsoon are the primary mechanism for this heavy precipitation during 5 - 13 August 2009. This extreme precipitation could be produced by the abundant moisture from the SW monsoon associated with the interaction between typhoon and monsoon wind fields, leading to severe property damage. The accurate mapping of extreme precipitation caused from the interaction between a monsoon and typhoon is critical for early warning in Taiwan. This study simulates the heavy rainfall event is based on the Weather Research and Forecast system model (WRF using the three nested domain configuration. Using data assimilation with a virtual meteorological field using the 3D-Var system, such as wind field to alter the SW monsoon strength in the initial condition, the impacts of intensified convergence and water vapor content on the accumulated rainfall are analyzed to quantize the intensification of typhoon rainfall potential. The results showed a positive correlation between the enhanced precipitation and the intensity of low-level wind speed convergence as well as water vapor content. For the Typhoon Morakot case study the rainfall for could attain approximately 2 × 104 mm at 6 hours interval in the southern Taiwan area when 10 × 10-6 s-1 convergence intensified at 850 hPa level around the southern part of the Taiwan Strait. These results suggest that low-level wind speed, convergence and water vapor content play key roles in the typhoon rainfall potential coupled with the SW monsoon.

Deforestation and rainfall recycling in Brazil: Is decreased forest cover connectivity associated with decreased rainfall connectivity?

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Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

2017-12-01

In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, deforestation has the potential to significantly affect rainfall by disrupting rainfall recycling, the process by which regional evapotranspiration contributes to regional rainfall. Understanding rainfall recycling in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching, agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations in previous studies suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between forest cover connectivity and rainfall. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect rainfall quantity and spatial distribution. Here we take an empirical approach, using the spatial connectivity of rainfall as an indicator of rainfall recycling, to ask: as forest cover connectivity decreased from 1981 - 2015, how did the spatial connectivity of rainfall change in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? We use satellite forest cover and rainfall data covering this period of intensive forest cover loss in the region (forest cover from the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset; rainfall from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset). Rainfall spatial connectivity is quantified using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory, and summarized using network statistics. Networks of connectivity are quantified for paired deforested and non-deforested regions before deforestation (1981-1995) and during/after deforestation (2001-2015). Analyses reveal a decline in spatial connectivity networks of rainfall following deforestation.

Climate change impacts on rainfall and temperature in sugarcane growing Upper Gangetic Plains of India

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Verma, Ram Ratan; Srivastava, Tapendra Kumar; Singh, Pushpa

2018-01-01

Assessment of variability in climate extremes is crucial for managing their aftermath on crops. Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), a major C4 crop, dominates the Upper Gangetic Plain (UGP) in India and is vulnerable to both direct and indirect effects of changes in temperature and rainfall. The present study was taken up to assess the weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual trends of rainfall and temperature variability during the period 1956-2015 (60 years) for envisaging the probabilities of different levels of rainfall suitable for sugarcane in UGP in the present climate scenario. The analysis revealed that 87% of total annual rainfall was received during southwest monsoon months (June-September) while post-monsoon (October to February) and pre-monsoon months (March-May) accounted for only 9.4 and 3.6%, respectively. There was a decline in both monthly and annual normal rainfall during the period 1986-2015 as compared to 1956-1985, and an annual rainfall deficiency of 205.3 mm was recorded. Maximum monthly normal rainfall deficiencies of 52.8, 84.2, and 54.0 mm were recorded during the months of July, August, and September, respectively, while a minimum rainfall deficiency of 2.2 mm was observed in November. There was a decline by 196.3 mm in seasonal normal rainfall during June-September (kharif). The initial probability of a week going dry was higher (> 70%) from the 1st to the 25th week; however, standard meteorological weeks (SMW) 26 to 37 had more than 50% probability of going wet. The normal annual maximum temperature (Tmax) decreased by 0.4 °C while normal annual minimum temperatures (Tmin) increased by 0.21 °C. Analysis showed that there was an increase in frequency of drought from 1986 onwards in the zone and a monsoon rainfall deficit by about 21.25% during June-September which coincided with tillering and grand growth stage of sugarcane. The imposed drought during the growth and elongation phase is emerging as a major constraint in realizing high

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

Science.gov (United States)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

Improvement of Statistical Typhoon Rainfall Forecasting with ANN-Based Southwest Monsoon Enhancement

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Tsung-Yi Pan

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Typhoon Morakot 2009, with significant southwest monsoon flow, produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2361 mm in 48 hours. This study hopes to improve a statistical typhoon rainfall forecasting method used over the mountain region of Taiwan via an artificial neural network based southwest monsoon enhancement (ANNSME model. Rainfall data collected at two mountain weather stations, ALiShan and YuShan, are analyzed to establish the relation to the southwest monsoon moisture flux which is calculated at a designated sea area southwest of Taiwan. The results show that the moisture flux, with southwest monsoon flow, transported water vapor during the landfall periods of Typhoons Mindulle, Bilis, Fungwong, Kalmaegi, Haitaing and Morakot. Based on the moisture flux, a linear regression is used to identify an effective value of moisture flux as the threshold flux which can enhance mountain rainfall in southwestern Taiwan. In particular, a feedforward neural network (FNN is applied to estimate the residuals from the linear model to the differences between simulated rainfalls by a typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM and observations. Consequently, the ANNSME model integrates the effective moisture flux, linear rainfall model and the FNN for residuals. Even with very limited training cases, our results indicate that the ANNSME model is robust and suitable for improvement of TRCM rainfall prediction. The improved prediction of the total rainfall and of the multiple rainfall peaks is important for emergency operation.

Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate......More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level...... and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level...

Description of rainfall variability in Br hat -samhita of Varâha-mihira

OpenAIRE

Iyengar, RN

2004-01-01

Br hat -samhita of Varâha-mihira (5–6th century AD) provides valuable information on the approach in ancient India towards monsoon rainfall, including its measurement and forecasting. In this context, we come across a description of the expected amount of total seasonal rainfall depending on the first rains under the 27 naks atras of Indian astronomy. This provides a rough statistical picture of what might have been the rainfall and its variability in the region around Ujjain, where Varâha-mi...

Effects of Rainfall Characteristics on the Stability of Tropical Residual Soil Slope

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Rahardjo Harianto

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Global climate change has a significant impact on rainfall characteristics, sea water level and groundwater table. Changes in rainfall characteristics may affect stability of slopes and have severe impacts on sustainable urban living. Information on the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall is often required by geotechnical engineers for performing slope stability analyses. Many seepage analyses are commonly performed using the most extreme rainfall possible which is uneconomical in designing a slope repair or slope failure preventive measure. In this study, the historical rainfall data were analyzed and investigated to understand the characteristics of rainfall in Singapore. The frequency distribution method was used to estimate future rainfall characteristics in Singapore. New intensity-duration-frequency (IDF curves for rainfall in Singapore were developed for six different durations (10, 20, 30 min and 1, 2 and 24 h and six frequencies (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The new IDF curves were used in the seepage and slope stability analyses to determine the variation of factor of safety of residual soil slopes under different rainfall intensities in Singapore.

Rainfall erosivity in the Fukushima Prefecture: implications for radiocesium mobilization and migration

Science.gov (United States)

Laceby, J. Patrick; Chartin, Caroline; Degan, Francesca; Onda, Yuichi; Evrard, Olivier; Cerdan, Olivier; Ayrault, Sophie

2015-04-01

The Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) accident in March 2011 led to the fallout of predominantly radiocesium (137Cs and 134Cs) on soils of the Fukushima Prefecture. This radiocesium was primarily fixated to fine soil particles. Subsequently, rainfall and snow melt run-off events result in significant quantities of radiocesium being eroded and transported throughout the coastal catchments and ultimately exported to the Pacific Ocean. Erosion models, such as the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), relate rainfall directly to soil erosion in that an increase in rainfall one month will directly result in a proportional increase in sediment generation. Understanding the rainfall regime of the region is therefore fundamental to modelling and predicting long-term radiocesium export. Here, we analyze rainfall data for ~40 stations within a 100 km radius of the FDNPP. First we present general information on the rainfall regime in the region based on monthly and annual rainfall totals. Second we present general information on rainfall erosivity, the R-factor of the USLE equation and its relationship to the general rainfall data. Third we examine rainfall trends over the last 100 years at several of the rainfall stations to understand temporal trends and whether ~20 years of data is sufficient to calculate the R-factor for USLE models. Fourth we present monthly R-factor maps for the Fukushima coastal catchments impacted by the FDNPP accident. The variability of the rainfall in the region, particularly during the typhoon season, is likely resulting in a similar variability in the transfer and migration of radiocesium throughout the coastal catchments of the Fukushima Prefecture. Characterizing the region's rainfall variability is fundamental to modelling sediment and the concomitant radiocesium migration and transfer throughout these catchments and ultimately to the Pacific Ocean.

Runoff Analysis Considering Orographical Features Using Dual Polarization Radar Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Noh, Hui-seong; Shin, Hyun-seok; Kang, Na-rae; Lee, Choong-Ke; Kim, Hung-soo

2013-04-01

performed. Then hydrologic component of the runoff hydrographs, peak flows and total runoffs from the estimated rainfall and the observed rainfall are compared. The results show that hydrologic components have high fluctuations depending on storm rainfall event. Thus, it is necessary to choose appropriate radar rainfall data derived from the above radar rainfall transform formulas to analyze the runoff of radar rainfall. The simulated hydrograph by radar in the three basins of agricultural areas is more similar to the observed hydrograph than the other three basins of mountainous areas. Especially the peak flow and shape of hydrograph of the agricultural areas is much closer to the observed ones than that of mountainous areas. This result comes from the difference of radar rainfall depending on the basin elevation. Therefore we need the examination of radar rainfall transform formulas following rainfall event and runoff analysis based on basin elevation for the improvement of radar rainfall application. Acknowledgment This study was financially supported by the Construction Technology Innovation Program(08-Tech-Inovation-F01) through the Research Center of Flood Defence Technology for Next Generation in Korea Institute of Construction & Transportation Technology Evaluation and Planning(KICTEP) of Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs(MLTM)

Extreme events assessment methodology coupling rainfall and tidal levels in the coastal floodplain of the São Paulo North Coast (Brazil) for drainage purposes

Science.gov (United States)

Alfredini, P.; Cartacho, D. L.; Arasaki, E.; Rosso, M.; Sousa, W. C., Jr.; Lanzieri, D. R.; Ferreira, J. P. M.

2012-04-01

The Caraguatatuba Coastal Plain is the wider in São Paulo State (Brazil) North Coastline. The Santo Antônio Torrent Catchmenth drains that region with high urban concentration (around 100,000 permanent inhabitants), which may quintuplicate with the turists in the summer period. In the last decade important oil and gas sea reserves were discovered and the facilities for their treatment were located in that region. For that great economic growth scenario it is mandatory to design mitigation risk measures to have the fluvial forcing processes well known, considering the natural hazards. The Santo Antônio catchment has a surface area of 40 km2, heavy rainfall rates (around 3000 mm/year), concentrated mainly in the summer period, producing high fluvial sediment transport capacity, floods and debris-flows. Due to the steep slopes and the altitude (~ 1000 m) of the mountains near the coast, the hydrological orographic effect rapidly condensates the sea humidity and recurrent and intense flood events cause extensive risks and damages to population and infrastructures. Strong debris-flows occur in that region, because rains higher than 300-400 mm per day occur in multi decadal periods. Due to the wind blowing landward the humidity from the sea, also meteorological tides occur in correspondence of high rainfall rates. The aim of this project is to present an extreme hydrological assessment methodology, coupling rainfall rates and tidal levels, to show the impact of climate changes during the last decades. It is also presented the magnitude of the rising meteorological tide coupled with the extreme rainfall events. The data base analysed comprised long term data of rainfall and tidal measurements from 1954 to 2003. The correlations of the two data were divided in five classes of rainfall in mm per day (> 0, > 25, > 50, > 75 and > 100) and estimated the tidal levels for different return periods in years (2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 75 and 100). The comparison of two distint periods

Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

2015-01-01

Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

2015-08-15

Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

Comparison and Evolution of Extreme Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunhung WU

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This study analyzed the characteristics of, and locations prone to, extreme rainfall-induced landslides in three watersheds in Taiwan, as well as the long-term evolution of landslides in the Laonong River watershed (LRW, based on multiannual landslide inventories during 2003–2014. Extreme rainfall-induced landslides were centralized beside sinuous or meandering reaches, especially those with large sediment deposition. Landslide-prone strata during extreme rainfall events were sandstone and siltstone. Large-scale landslides were likely to occur when the maximum 6-h accumulated rainfall exceeded 420 mm. All of the large-scale landslides induced by short-duration and high-intensity rainfall developed from historical small-scale landslides beside the sinuous or meandering reaches or in the source area of rivers. However, most of the large-scale landslides induced by long-duration and high-intensity rainfall were new but were still located beside sinuous or meandering reaches or near the source. The frequency density of landslides under long-duration and high-intensity rainfall was larger by one order than those under short-duration rainfall, and the β values in the landslide frequency density-area analysis ranged from 1.22 to 1.348. The number of downslope landslides was three times larger than those of midslope and upslope landslides. The extreme rainfall-induced landslides occurred in the erosion gullies upstream of the watersheds, whereas those beside rivers were downstream. Analysis of the long-term evolution of landslides in the LRW showed that the geological setting, sinuousness of reaches, and sediment yield volume determined their location and evolution. Small-scale landslides constituted 71.9–96.2% of the total cases from 2003 to 2014, and were more easily induced after Typhoon Morakot (2009. The frequency density of landslides after Morakot was greater by one order than before, with 61% to 68% of total landslides located in the

Nutrient fluxes in rainfall, throughfall and stemflow in Eucalyptus ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Southern Forests: a Journal of Forest Science ... The aim of this study was to determine the magnitude and relevance of nutrient addition with ... was used with rainfall and canopy drainage to derive wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition.

Influence of southern oscillation on autumn rainfall in Iran (1951-2011)

Science.gov (United States)

Roghani, Rabbaneh; Soltani, Saeid; Bashari, Hossein

2016-04-01

This study aimed to investigate the relationships between southern oscillation and autumn (October-December) rainfall in Iran. It also sought to identify the possible physical mechanisms involved in the mentioned relationships by analyzing observational atmospheric data. Analyses were based on monthly rainfall data from 50 synoptic stations with at least 35 years of records up to the end of 2011. Autumn rainfall time series were grouped by the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and SOI phase methods. Significant differences between rainfall groups in each method were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis and Kolmogorov-Smirnov non-parametric tests. Their relationships were also validated using the linear error in probability space (LEPS) test. The results showed that average SOI and SOI phases during July-September were related with autumn rainfall in some regions located in the west and northwest of Iran, west coasts of the Caspian Sea and southern Alborz Mountains. The El Niño (negative) and La Niña (positive) phases were associated with increased and decreased autumn rainfall, respectively. Our findings also demonstrated the persistence of Southern Pacific Ocean's pressure signals on autumn rainfall in Iran. Geopotential height patterns were totally different in the selected El Niño and La Niña years over Iran. During the El Niño years, a cyclone was formed over the north of Iran and an anticyclone existed over the Mediterranean Sea. During La Niña years, the cyclone shifted towards the Mediterranean Sea and an anticyclone developed over Iran. While these El Niño conditions increased autumn rainfall in Iran, the opposite conditions during the La Niña phase decreased rainfall in the country. In conclusion, development of rainfall prediction models based on the SOI can facilitate agricultural and water resources management in Iran.

Modelling rainfall amounts using mixed-gamma model for Kuantan district

Science.gov (United States)

Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Moslim, Nor Hafizah

2017-05-01

An efficient design of flood mitigation and construction of crop growth models depend upon good understanding of the rainfall process and characteristics. Gamma distribution is usually used to model nonzero rainfall amounts. In this study, the mixed-gamma model is applied to accommodate both zero and nonzero rainfall amounts. The mixed-gamma model presented is for the independent case. The formulae of mean and variance are derived for the sum of two and three independent mixed-gamma variables, respectively. Firstly, the gamma distribution is used to model the nonzero rainfall amounts and the parameters of the distribution (shape and scale) are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Then, the mixed-gamma model is defined for both zero and nonzero rainfall amounts simultaneously. The formulae of mean and variance for the sum of two and three independent mixed-gamma variables derived are tested using the monthly rainfall amounts from rainfall stations within Kuantan district in Pahang Malaysia. Based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test, the results demonstrate that the descriptive statistics of the observed sum of rainfall amounts is not significantly different at 5% significance level from the generated sum of independent mixed-gamma variables. The methodology and formulae demonstrated can be applied to find the sum of more than three independent mixed-gamma variables.

Correlations of Rainfall and Forest Type with Papilionid Assemblages in Assam in Northeast India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kamini Kusum Barua

2010-01-01

Full Text Available No comprehensive community studies have been done on the butterflies of the tropical monsoon forests of the East Himalayan region. We described the Papilionidae at one site within the continuous moist deciduous forest belt of Northeast India and their variation with season and forest type. We surveyed 20 permanent line transects, varying with respect to canopy openness and observed levels of disturbance. A total sample effort of 131 days during the dry and wet seasons of a two-year study resulted in 18,373 individuals identified from 28 Papilionidae species. Constrained canonical correspondence ordination was used to examine the effects of season, forest type, rainfall, year, altitude, and geographical position on the species assemblages. Results showed that rainfall, forest type, and season accounted for most variance in papilionid abundance. Rainfall was strongly correlated with the abundance of some species. Nine species were associated with gaps, 16 species were restricted to closed forest, and three species were encountered in both gaps and closed forest. Six species with narrow geographic range were found only in closed forest. The results confirm the strong seasonality of continental Southeast Asian butterfly assemblages.

One-tiered vs. two-tiered forecasting of South African seasonal rainfall

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Landman, WA

2010-09-01

Full Text Available -tiered Forecasting of South African Seasonal Rainfall Willem A. Landman1, Dave DeWitt2 and Daleen L?tter3 1: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research; WALandman@csir.co.za 2: International Research Institute for Climate and Society; Daved... modelled as fully interacting is called a fully coupled model system. Forecast performance by such systems predicting seasonal rainfall totals over South Africa is compared with forecasts produced by a computationally less demanding two-tiered system...

Rainfall Climatology over Asir Region, Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Sharif, H.; Furl, C.; Al-Zahrani, M.

2012-04-01

Arid and semi-arid lands occupy about one-third of the land surface of the earth and support about one-fifth of the world population. The Asir area in Saudi Arabia is an example of these areas faced with the problem of maintaining sustainable water resources. This problem is exacerbated by the high levels of population growth, land use changes, increasing water demand, and climate variability. In this study, the characteristics of decade-scale variations in precipitation are examined in more detail for Asir region. The spatio-temporal distributions of rainfall over the region are analyzed. The objectives are to identify the sensitivity, magnitude, and range of changes in annual and seasonal evapotranspiration resulting from observed decade-scale precipitation variations. An additional objective is to characterize orographic controls on the space-time variability of rainfall. The rainfall data is obtained from more than 30 rain gauges spread over the region.

Rainfall Variability, Adaptation through Irrigation, and Sustainable Management of Water Resources in India

Science.gov (United States)

Fishman, R.

2013-12-01

Most studies of the impact of climate change on agriculture account for shifts in temperature and total seasonal (or monthly) precipitation. However, climate change is also projected to increase intra-seasonal precipitation variability in many parts of the world. To provide first estimates of the potential impact, I paired daily rainfall and rice yield data during the period 1970-2004, from across India, where about a fifth of the world's rice is produced, and yields have always been highly dependent on the erratic monsoon rainfall. Multivariate regression models revealed that the number of rainless days during the wet season has a statistically robust negative impact on rice yields that exceeds that of total seasonal rainfall. Moreover, a simulation of climate change impacts found that the negative impact of the projected increase in the number of rainless days will trump the positive impact of the projected increase in total precipitation, and reverse the net precipitation effect on rice production from positive (+3%) to negative (-10%). The results also indicate that higher irrigation coverage is correlated with reduced sensitivity to rainfall variability, suggesting the expansion of irrigation can effectively adapt agriculture to these climate change impacts. However, taking into account limitations on water resource availability in India, I calculate that under current irrigation practices, sustainable use of water can mitigate less than a tenth of the impact.

Diagnostics of Rainfall Anomalies in the Nordeste During the Global Weather Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Sikdar, D. M.

1984-01-01

The relationship of the daily variability of large-scale pressure, cloudiness and upper level wind patterns over the Brazil-Atlantic sector during March/April 1979 to rainfall anomalies in northern Nordeste was investigated. The experiment divides the rainy season (March/April) of 1979 into wet and dry days, then composites bright cloudiness, sea level pressure, and upper level wind fields with respect to persistent rainfall episodes. Wet and dry anomalies are analyzed along with seasonal mean conditions.

Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

2017-01-01

Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme...... includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

Evaluate Hydrologic Response on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall Using High Resolution Radar Rainfall Data and WRF-Hydro Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, S.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

A previously developed Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS) generator is a multivariate rainfall model simulating the complex nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and storm movement. Previous effort by the authors has investigated the sensitivity of DMS parameters on corresponding hydrologic responses by using synthetic storms. In this study, the DMS generator has been upgraded to generate more realistic precipitation field. The dependence of hydrologic responses on rainfall features was investigated by dissecting the precipitation field into rain cells and modifying their spatio-temporal specification individually. To retrieve DMS parameters from radar rainfall data, rain cell segmentation and tracking algorithms were respectively developed and applied on high resolution radar rainfall data (1) to spatially determine the rain cells within individual radar image and (2) to temporally analyze their dynamic behavior. Statistics of DMS parameters were established by processing a long record of rainfall data (10 years) to keep the modification on real storms within the limit of regional climatology. Empirical distributions of the DMS parameters were calculated to reveal any preferential pattern and seasonality. Subsequently, the WRF-Hydro model forced by the remodeled and modified precipitation was used for hydrologic simulation. The study area was the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) watershed, Texas; and two kinds of high resolution radar data i.e. the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) level III Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) product and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate product, were utilized to establish parameter statistics and to recreate/remodel historical events respectively. The results demonstrated that rainfall duration is a significant linkage between DMS parameters and their hydrologic impacts—any combination of spatiotemporal characteristics that keep rain cells longer over the catchment will produce higher

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

2008-01-01

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response

Forecasting Global Rainfall for Points Using ECMWF's Global Ensemble and Its Applications in Flood Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Pillosu, F. M.; Hewson, T.; Mazzetti, C.

2017-12-01

Prediction of local extreme rainfall has historically been the remit of nowcasting and high resolution limited area modelling, which represent only limited areas, may not be spatially accurate, give reasonable results only for limited lead times (based statistical post-processing software ("ecPoint-Rainfall, ecPR", operational in 2017) that uses ECMWF Ensemble (ENS) output to deliver global probabilistic rainfall forecasts for points up to day 10. Firstly, ecPR applies a new notion of "remote calibration", which 1) allows us to replicate a multi-centennial training period using only one year of data, and 2) provides forecasts for anywhere in the world. Secondly, the software applies an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals, and of where biases in the model can be improved upon. A long-term verification has shown that the post-processed rainfall has better reliability and resolution at every lead time if compared with ENS, and for large totals, ecPR outputs have the same skill at day 5 that the raw ENS has at day 1 (ROC area metric). ecPR could be used as input for hydrological models if its probabilistic output is modified accordingly to the inputs requirements for hydrological models. Indeed, ecPR does not provide information on where the highest total is likely to occur inside the gridbox, nor on the spatial distribution of rainfall values nearby. "Scenario forecasts" could be a solution. They are derived from locating the rainfall peak in sensitive positions (e.g. urban areas), and then redistributing the remaining quantities in the gridbox modifying traditional spatial correlation characterization methodologies (e.g. variogram analysis) in order to take account, for instance, of the type of rainfall forecast (stratiform, convective). Such an approach could be a turning point in the field of medium-range global real-time riverine flood forecasts. This presentation will

Soil losses from typic cambisols and red latosol as related to three erosive rainfall patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Regimeire Freitas Aquino

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity is one of the main factors related to water erosion in the tropics. This work focused on relating soil loss from a typic dystrophic Tb Haplic Cambisol (CXbd and a typic dystrophic Red Latosol (LVdf to different patterns of natural erosive rainfall. The experimental plots of approximately 26 m² (3 x 8.67 m consisted of a CXbd area with a 0.15 m m-1 slope and a LVdf area with 0.12 m m-1 slope, both delimited by galvanized plates. Drainpipes were installed at the lower part of these plots to collect runoff, interconnected with a Geib or multislot divisor. To calculate erosivity (EI30, rainfall data, recorded continuously at a weather station in Lavras, were used. The data of erosive rainfall events were measured (10 mm precipitation intervals, accuracy 0.2 mm, 24 h period, 20 min intervals, characterized as rainfall events with more than 10 mm precipitation, maximum intensity > 24 mm h-1 within 15 min, or kinetic energy > 3.6 MJ, which were used in this study to calculate the rainfall erosivity parameter, were classified according to the moment of peak precipitation intensity in advanced, intermediate and delayed patterns. Among the 139 erosive rainfall events with CXbd soil loss, 60 % were attributed to the advanced pattern, with a loss of 415.9 Mg ha-1, and total losses of 776.0 Mg ha-1. As for the LVdf, of the 93 erosive rainfall events with soil loss, 58 % were listed in the advanced pattern, with 37.8 Mg ha-1 soil loss and 50.9 Mg ha-1 of total soil loss. The greatest soil losses were observed in the advanced rain pattern, especially for the CXbd. From the Cambisol, the soil loss per rainfall event was greatest for the advanced pattern, being influenced by the low soil permeability.

Partial Least Squares Regression for Determining the Control Factors for Runoff and Suspended Sediment Yield during Rainfall Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nufang Fang

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Multivariate statistics are commonly used to identify the factors that control the dynamics of runoff or sediment yields during hydrological processes. However, one issue with the use of conventional statistical methods to address relationships between variables and runoff or sediment yield is multicollinearity. The main objectives of this study were to apply a method for effectively identifying runoff and sediment control factors during hydrological processes and apply that method to a case study. The method combines the clustering approach and partial least squares regression (PLSR models. The case study was conducted in a mountainous watershed in the Three Gorges Area. A total of 29 flood events in three hydrological years in areas with different land uses were obtained. In total, fourteen related variables were separated from hydrographs using the classical hydrograph separation method. Twenty-nine rainfall events were classified into two rainfall regimes (heavy Rainfall Regime I and moderate Rainfall Regime II based on rainfall characteristics and K-means clustering. Four separate PLSR models were constructed to identify the main variables that control runoff and sediment yield for the two rainfall regimes. For Rainfall Regime I, the dominant first-order factors affecting the changes in sediment yield in our study were all of the four rainfall-related variables, flood peak discharge, maximum flood suspended sediment concentration, runoff, and the percentages of forest and farmland. For Rainfall Regime II, antecedent condition-related variables have more effects on both runoff and sediment yield than in Rainfall Regime I. The results suggest that the different control factors of the two rainfall regimes are determined by the rainfall characteristics and thus different runoff mechanisms.

Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jefferson Schick

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.

Deterministic Approach for Estimating Critical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-induced Landslide in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Ming-Chien; Tan, Chih-Hao; Chen, Mien-Min; Su, Tai-Wei

2013-04-01

Taiwan is an active mountain belt created by the oblique collision between the northern Luzon arc and the Asian continental margin. The inherent complexities of geological nature create numerous discontinuities through rock masses and relatively steep hillside on the island. In recent years, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events due to global warming or climate change brought significant landslides. The causes of landslides in these slopes are attributed to a number of factors. As is well known, rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for landslide occurrence. In general, the rainfall infiltration results in changing the suction and the moisture of soil, raising the unit weight of soil, and reducing the shear strength of soil in the colluvium of landslide. The stability of landslide is closely related to the groundwater pressure in response to rainfall infiltration, the geological and topographical conditions, and the physical and mechanical parameters. To assess the potential susceptibility to landslide, an effective modeling of rainfall-induced landslide is essential. In this paper, a deterministic approach is adopted to estimate the critical rainfall threshold of the rainfall-induced landslide. The critical rainfall threshold is defined as the accumulated rainfall while the safety factor of the slope is equal to 1.0. First, the process of deterministic approach establishes the hydrogeological conceptual model of the slope based on a series of in-situ investigations, including geological drilling, surface geological investigation, geophysical investigation, and borehole explorations. The material strength and hydraulic properties of the model were given by the field and laboratory tests. Second, the hydraulic and mechanical parameters of the model are calibrated with the long-term monitoring data. Furthermore, a two-dimensional numerical program, GeoStudio, was employed to perform the modelling practice. Finally

Automatic Extraction of High-Resolution Rainfall Series from Rainfall Strip Charts

Science.gov (United States)

Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Valencia, Jose Luis; Garrido, Alberto; Tarquis, Ana M.

2015-04-01

Soil erosion is a complex phenomenon involving the detachment and transport of soil particles, storage and runoff of rainwater, and infiltration. The relative magnitude and importance of these processes depends on a host of factors, including climate, soil, topography, cropping and land management practices among others. Most models for soil erosion or hydrological processes need an accurate storm characterization. However, this data are not always available and in some cases indirect models are generated to fill this gap. In Spain, the rain intensity data known for time periods less than 24 hours back to 1924 and many studies are limited by it. In many cases this data is stored in rainfall strip charts in the meteorological stations but haven't been transfer in a numerical form. To overcome this deficiency in the raw data a process of information extraction from large amounts of rainfall strip charts is implemented by means of computer software. The method has been developed that largely automates the intensive-labour extraction work based on van Piggelen et al. (2011). The method consists of the following five basic steps: 1) scanning the charts to high-resolution digital images, 2) manually and visually registering relevant meta information from charts and pre-processing, 3) applying automatic curve extraction software in a batch process to determine the coordinates of cumulative rainfall lines on the images (main step), 4) post processing the curves that were not correctly determined in step 3, and 5) aggregating the cumulative rainfall in pixel coordinates to the desired time resolution. A colour detection procedure is introduced that automatically separates the background of the charts and rolls from the grid and subsequently the rainfall curve. The rainfall curve is detected by minimization of a cost function. Some utilities have been added to improve the previous work and automates some auxiliary processes: readjust the bands properly, merge bands when

Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

. Individual sci- entists and research institutes use these special datasets to ... including the data reporting no rain is very impor- tant to make the final merged dataset. Figures 2 and 3 show the total weekly rainfall amounts for different weeks in ...

Improved rainfall-runoff approach using lumped and conceptual modelling

OpenAIRE

Durán Barroso, Pablo

2016-01-01

Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. The division of the rainfall depth between infiltration and runoff has a high level of complexity due to the spatial heterogeneity in real catchments and the temporal precipitation variability, which provide scale effects on the overall runoff volumes. The Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS CN) ...

Parametric study on the effect of rainfall pattern to slope stability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakim Sagitaningrum Fathiyah

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Landslide in Indonesia usually occurs during the rainy seasons. Previous studies showed that rainfall infiltration has a great effect on the factor of safety (FS of slopes. This research focused on the effect of rainfall pattern on the FS of unsaturated slope with different slope angle i.e.: 30°, 45°, and 60°. Three different rainfall patterns, which are normal, advanced, and delayed were considered in the analysis. The effects of low or high hydraulic conductivity of the soil are also observed. The analyses were conducted with SEEP/W for the seepage and SLOPE/W for the slope stability. It is found that the lowest FS for gentle slope is reached under the application of advanced rainfall pattern and the lowest FS for steep slope is reached under the application of delayed rainfall pattern. Reduction of FS is known to be the largest for gentle slope rather than steep slope due to negative pore water pressure reduction and the rising of ground water level. The largest FS reduction caused by rainfall was achieved for gentle slope under advanced rainfall pattern.

Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought in the Kruger National Park

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Zambatis

1995-08-01

Full Text Available Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought, the severest in the recorded history of the Kruger National Park (KNP, are described. Mean total rainfall for the KNP was 235.6 mm (44.1 of the long- term mean, with a median of 239.9 mm. The num- ber of days on which rain occurred also decreased significantly from a mean annual total of 48.3 to a mean of 24.2 in 1991/92. Daily maximum, minimum and average temperatures for some months increased significantly, as did the number of days within certain maximum temperature range classes.

The effects of simulated rainfall on immature population dynamics of Aedes albopictus and female oviposition

Science.gov (United States)

Dieng, Hamady; Rahman, G. M. Saifur; Abu Hassan, A.; Che Salmah, M. R.; Satho, Tomomitsu; Miake, Fumio; Boots, Michael; Sazaly, Abubakar

2012-01-01

Larvae of Aedes albopictus Skuse typically inhabit natural and artificial containers. Since these larval habitats are replenished by rainfall, Ae. albopictus may experience increased loss of immature stages in areas with high levels of rainfall. In this study, we investigated the effects of rainfall and container water level on population density, and oviposition activity of Ae. albopictus. In field and laboratory experiments, we found that rainfall resulted in the flushing of breeding habitats. Excess rain negatively impacted larval and pupal retention, especially in small habitats. When filled with water to overflowing, container habitats were significantly repellent to ovipositing females. Taken together, these data suggest that rainfall triggers population loss of Ae. albopictus and related species through a direct detrimental effect (flushing out) and an indirect effect (ovipositional repellency).

[Hydrology and water quality of rainfall-runoff in combined sewerage system along Suzhou Creek in central Shanghai].

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Jiang; Yang, Kai; Huang, Xiao-Fang; Lü, Yong-Peng

2009-07-15

In order to obtain the processes of hydrology and water quality of urban combined sewerage system (CSS) in highly urbanized region, the precipitation, discharge and pollutant concentration of four different intensity rainfall (light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and storm) were measured from Jul. to Sep. 2007 in the Chendulu CSS along Suzhou Creek in Shanghai. The results show that the shapes of runoff graph are similar to rainfall graph, with a weaker fluctuation range and a 15-25 min delay between rainfall and runoff graph. Runoff coefficients of the four different rainfall are 0.33, 0.62, 0.67 and 0.73, respectively. The 30/30 first flush phenomenon is found in Chendulu CSS. The peak of pollutant concentration graph lags rainfall peak about 30-40 min. The pH and event mean concentration (EMC) of Cu, Zn, Cr, Cd, Pb and Ni totally measure up to environmental quality standards V for surface water of China besides COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP, and the EMC of COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP are 225.0-544.1, 31.5-98.9, 8.9-44.2 and 1.98-3.52 mg x L(-1), respectively. The rainfall-runoff pollutant concentration in Chendulu CSS is close to those of other foreign cites. At the confidence level of p < 0.01, good relationships exist between SS and COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP, respectively, and the average proportion of particulate organic pollutant and nutrient is 70.21%.

How El-Nino affects Ethiopian summer rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel; Viste, Ellen

2016-04-01

Ethiopian economy and society are strongly dependent on agriculture and therefore rainfall. Reliable forecasts for the rainy seasons are important to allow for agricultural planning and drought preparations. The operational seasonal forecasts for Ethiopia are based on analogue methods relying mainly on sea surface temperature (SST) indices. A better understanding of the physical links between Ethiopian rainfall and SST may help to improve forecasts. The highest rainfall rates are observed in the Kiremt season (defined as JJAS), which is the rainy season in Central and Northwestern Ethiopia. Kiremt rainfall shows clear negative correlation with Central Pacific SST, linking dry Ethiopian summers with ENSO-like warm SST anomalies. We use the atmosphere general circulation model Echam5.3 to investigate the physical link between Pacific SST anomalies and Kiremt rainfall. We compare a historical simulation with a T106 horizontal resolution (~ 1.125°), forced with reconstructed SST data, to gauge-based rainfall observations for the time period of 1961 to 2009. Composite analysis for model and observations show warm SST anomalies in the Central Pacific and a corresponding large-scale circulation anomaly with subsidence over Ethiopia in dry Kiremt seasons. Horizontal wind fields show a slow-down of the whole Indian monsoon system with a weaker Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and a weaker East African Low-Level Jet (EALLJ) in these summers. We conducted a sensitivity experiment with El Nino like SST anomalies in the Central Pacific with the same Echam version. Its results show that warm Pacific SST anomalies cause dry summer conditions over Ethiopia. While the large-scale subsidence over East Africa is present in the experiment, there is no significant weakening of the Indian monsoon system. We rather find an anomalous circulation cell over Northern Africa with westerlies at 100-200 hPa and easterlies below 500 hPa. The anomalous easterly flow in the lower and middle

Rainfall prediction with backpropagation method

Science.gov (United States)

Wahyuni, E. G.; Fauzan, L. M. F.; Abriyani, F.; Muchlis, N. F.; Ulfa, M.

2018-03-01

Rainfall is an important factor in many fields, such as aviation and agriculture. Although it has been assisted by technology but the accuracy can not reach 100% and there is still the possibility of error. Though current rainfall prediction information is needed in various fields, such as agriculture and aviation fields. In the field of agriculture, to obtain abundant and quality yields, farmers are very dependent on weather conditions, especially rainfall. Rainfall is one of the factors that affect the safety of aircraft. To overcome the problems above, then it’s required a system that can accurately predict rainfall. In predicting rainfall, artificial neural network modeling is applied in this research. The method used in modeling this artificial neural network is backpropagation method. Backpropagation methods can result in better performance in repetitive exercises. This means that the weight of the ANN interconnection can approach the weight it should be. Another advantage of this method is the ability in the learning process adaptively and multilayer owned on this method there is a process of weight changes so as to minimize error (fault tolerance). Therefore, this method can guarantee good system resilience and consistently work well. The network is designed using 4 input variables, namely air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration and 3 output variables ie low rainfall, medium rainfall, and high rainfall. Based on the research that has been done, the network can be used properly, as evidenced by the results of the prediction of the system precipitation is the same as the results of manual calculations.

A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Bech, Joan; Pineda, Nicolau; Rigo, Tomeu; Aran, Montserrat; Amaro, Jéssica; Gayà, Miquel; Arús, Joan; Montanyà, Joan; der Velde, Oscar van

2011-06-01

This study presents an analysis of a severe weather case that took place during the early morning of the 2nd of November 2008, when intense convective activity associated with a rapidly evolving low pressure system affected the southern coast of Catalonia (NE Spain). The synoptic framework was dominated by an upper level trough and an associated cold front extending from Gibraltar along the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula to SE France, which moved north-eastward. South easterly winds in the north of the Balearic Islands and the coast of Catalonia favoured high values of 0-3 km storm relative helicity which combined with moderate MLCAPE values and high shear favoured the conditions for organized convection. A number of multicell storms and others exhibiting supercell features, as indicated by Doppler radar observations, clustered later in a mesoscale convective system, and moved north-eastwards across Catalonia. They produced ground-level strong damaging wind gusts, an F2 tornado, hail and heavy rainfall. Total lightning activity (intra-cloud and cloud to ground flashes) was also relevant, exhibiting several classical features such as a sudden increased rate before ground level severe damage, as discussed in a companion study. Remarkable surface observations of this event include 24 h precipitation accumulations exceeding 100 mm in four different observatories and 30 minute rainfall amounts up to 40 mm which caused local flash floods. As the convective system evolved northward later that day it also affected SE France causing large hail, ground level damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

Science.gov (United States)

Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

2016-04-01

Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and

Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

2015-01-01

A high number of studies have detected changes in the observed heavy rainfall in Northern and Central Europe, all adding to the debate on anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on rainfall extremes. However, it is equally relevant to understand natural variations on which...... the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in daily rainfall extremes from Denmark and southern Sweden, with a recurrence level relevant for flood hazard analysis. Based on smoothed series it is concluded that the frequency of the extreme events shows both a general...

Effects of rainfall patterns and land cover on the subsurface flow generation of sloping Ferralsols in southern China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Duan

Full Text Available Rainfall patterns and land cover are two important factors that affect the runoff generation process. To determine the surface and subsurface flows associated with different rainfall patterns on sloping Ferralsols under different land cover types, observational data related to surface and subsurface flows from 5 m × 15 m plots were collected from 2010 to 2012. The experiment was conducted to assess three land cover types (grass, litter cover and bare land in the Jiangxi Provincial Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Park. During the study period, 114 natural rainfall events produced subsurface flow and were divided into four groups using k-means clustering according to rainfall duration, rainfall depth and maximum 30-min rainfall intensity. The results showed that the total runoff and surface flow values were highest for bare land under all four rainfall patterns and lowest for the covered plots. However, covered plots generated higher subsurface flow values than bare land. Moreover, the surface and subsurface flows associated with the three land cover types differed significantly under different rainfall patterns. Rainfall patterns with low intensities and long durations created more subsurface flow in the grass and litter cover types, whereas rainfall patterns with high intensities and short durations resulted in greater surface flow over bare land. Rainfall pattern I had the highest surface and subsurface flow values for the grass cover and litter cover types. The highest surface flow value and lowest subsurface flow value for bare land occurred under rainfall pattern IV. Rainfall pattern II generated the highest subsurface flow value for bare land. Therefore, grass or litter cover are able to convert more surface flow into subsurface flow under different rainfall patterns. The rainfall patterns studied had greater effects on subsurface flow than on total runoff and surface flow for covered surfaces, as well as a greater effect on surface

Comparing Approaches to Deal With Non-Gaussianity of Rainfall Data in Kriging-Based Radar-Gauge Rainfall Merging

Science.gov (United States)

Cecinati, F.; Wani, O.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

2017-11-01

Merging radar and rain gauge rainfall data is a technique used to improve the quality of spatial rainfall estimates and in particular the use of Kriging with External Drift (KED) is a very effective radar-rain gauge rainfall merging technique. However, kriging interpolations assume Gaussianity of the process. Rainfall has a strongly skewed, positive, probability distribution, characterized by a discontinuity due to intermittency. In KED rainfall residuals are used, implicitly calculated as the difference between rain gauge data and a linear function of the radar estimates. Rainfall residuals are non-Gaussian as well. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of applying KED to non-Gaussian rainfall residuals, and to assess the best techniques to improve Gaussianity. We compare Box-Cox transformations with λ parameters equal to 0.5, 0.25, and 0.1, Box-Cox with time-variant optimization of λ, normal score transformation, and a singularity analysis technique. The results suggest that Box-Cox with λ = 0.1 and the singularity analysis is not suitable for KED. Normal score transformation and Box-Cox with optimized λ, or λ = 0.25 produce satisfactory results in terms of Gaussianity of the residuals, probability distribution of the merged rainfall products, and rainfall estimate quality, when validated through cross-validation. However, it is observed that Box-Cox transformations are strongly dependent on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and on the units used for the rainfall intensity. Overall, applying transformations results in a quantitative improvement of the rainfall estimates only if the correct transformations for the specific data set are used.

Saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of slope subjected to rainfall infiltration

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Gofar Nurly

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents results of saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of typical residual slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration corresponds to 50 years rainfall return period. The slope angles considered were 45° and 70°. The saturated stability analyses were carried out for original and critical ground water level commonly considered by practicing engineer. The analyses were conducted using limit equilibrium method. Unsaturated stability analyses used combination of coupled stress–pore-water pressure analysis to evaluate the effect of rainfall infiltration on the deformation and transient pore-water pressure on slope stability. Slope stability analyses were performed at some times during and after rainfall infiltration. Results show that the critical condition for slope made by sandy material was at the end of rainfall while for clayey material was at some specified times after the rainfall ceased. Unsaturated stability analysis on sandy soil gives higher factor of safety because the soil never reached saturation. Transient analysis using unsaturated soil concept could predict more critical condition of delayed failure of slopes made up of clayey soil.

Rainfall interception from a lowland tropical rainforest in Brunei

Science.gov (United States)

Dykes, A. P.

1997-12-01

Results from a programme of throughfall measurements in a lowland tropical rainforest in Brunei, northwest Borneo, indicate that interception losses amount to 18% of the gross incident rainfall. The high annual rainfall experienced by the study area results in annual interception losses of around 800 mm, which may result in total annual evapotranspiration losses significantly higher than in other rainforest locations. An improved version of Gash's analytical interception model is tested on the available data using assumed values for the "forest" parameters, and is found to predict interception losses extremely well. The model predictions are based on an estimated evaporation rate during rainfall of 0.71 mm h -1. This is significantly higher than has been reported in other tropical studies. It is concluded that these results are distinctive when compared with previous results from rainforests, and that further, detailed work is required to establish whether the enhanced evaporation rate is due to advective effects associated with the maritime setting of the study area.

The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

2017-10-01

The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

Development of extreme rainfall PRA methodology for sodium-cooled fast reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology for extreme rainfall with focusing on decay heat removal system of a sodium-cooled fast reactor. For the extreme rainfall, annual excess probability depending on the hazard intensity was statistically estimated based on meteorological data. To identify core damage sequence, event trees were developed by assuming scenarios that structures, systems and components (SSCs) important to safety are flooded with rainwater coming into the buildings through gaps in the doors and the SSCs fail when the level of rainwater on the ground or on the roof of the building becomes higher than thresholds of doors on first floor or on the roof during the rainfall. To estimate the failure probability of the SSCs, the level of water rise was estimated by comparing the difference between precipitation and drainage capacity. By combining annual excess probability and the failure probability of SSCs, the event trees led to quantification of core damage frequency, and therefore the PRA methodology for rainfall was developed. (author)

Rainfall erosivity map for Ghana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oduro Afriyie, K.

1995-10-01

Monthly rainfall data, spanning over a period of more than thirty years, were used to compute rainfall erosivity indices for various stations in Ghana, using the Fournier index, c, defined as p 2 /P, where p is the rainfall amount in the wettest month and P is the annual rainfall amount. Values of the rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 24.5 mm at Sunyani in the mid-portion of Ghana to 180.9 mm at Axim in the south western coastal portion. The indices were used to construct a rainfall erosivity map for the country. The map revealed that Ghana may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The middle sector of Ghana is generally in the low erosion risk zone; the northern sector is in the moderate to severe erosion risk zone, while the coastal sector is in the severe to extreme severe erosion risk zone. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 1 tab

Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy

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M. T. Brunetti

2010-03-01

Full Text Available In Italy, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides that frequently cause fatalities and large economic damage. Using a variety of information sources, we have compiled a catalogue listing 753 rainfall events that have resulted in landslides in Italy. For each event in the catalogue, the exact or approximate location of the landslide and the time or period of initiation of the slope failure is known, together with information on the rainfall duration D, and the rainfall mean intensity I, that have resulted in the slope failure. The catalogue represents the single largest collection of information on rainfall-induced landslides in Italy, and was exploited to determine the minimum rainfall conditions necessary for landslide occurrence in Italy, and in the Abruzzo Region, central Italy. For the purpose, new national rainfall thresholds for Italy and new regional rainfall thresholds for the Abruzzo Region were established, using two independent statistical methods, including a Bayesian inference method and a new Frequentist approach. The two methods proved complementary, with the Bayesian method more suited to analyze small data sets, and the Frequentist method performing better when applied to large data sets. The new regional thresholds for the Abruzzo Region are lower than the new national thresholds for Italy, and lower than the regional thresholds proposed in the literature for the Piedmont and Lombardy Regions in northern Italy, and for the Campania Region in southern Italy. This is important, because it shows that landslides in Italy can be triggered by less severe rainfall conditions than previously recognized. The Frequentist method experimented in this work allows for the definition of multiple minimum rainfall thresholds, each based on a different exceedance probability level. This makes the thresholds suited for the design of probabilistic schemes for the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. A scheme based on four

Mesoscale and Local Scale Evaluations of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates by Weather Radar Products during a Heavy Rainfall Event

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Basile Pauthier

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A 24-hour heavy rainfall event occurred in northeastern France from November 3 to 4, 2014. The accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE by PANTHERE and ANTILOPE radar-based gridded products during this particular event, is examined at both mesoscale and local scale, in comparison with two reference rain-gauge networks. Mesoscale accuracy was assessed for the total rainfall accumulated during the 24-hour event, using the Météo France operational rain-gauge network. Local scale accuracy was assessed for both total event rainfall and hourly rainfall accumulations, using the recently developed HydraVitis high-resolution rain gauge network Evaluation shows that (1 PANTHERE radar-based QPE underestimates rainfall fields at mesoscale and local scale; (2 both PANTHERE and ANTILOPE successfully reproduced the spatial variability of rainfall at local scale; (3 PANTHERE underestimates can be significantly improved at local scale by merging these data with rain gauge data interpolation (i.e., ANTILOPE. This study provides a preliminary evaluation of radar-based QPE at local scale, suggesting that merged products are invaluable for applications at very high resolution. The results obtained underline the importance of using high-density rain-gauge networks to obtain information at high spatial and temporal resolution, for better understanding of local rainfall variation, to calibrate remotely sensed rainfall products.

Influence of Speed and Rainfall on Large-Scale Wheat Lodging from 2007 to 2014 in China.

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Liyuan Niu

Full Text Available Strong wind and heavy rain remain the two most important causes of large acreage wheat (Triticum aestivum L. lodging in China. For research the influence of wind speed and rainfall-separately as well as together-on the extent and degree of lodging, five levels of the severity of lodging were defined based on a combination of the lodging area and the degree of tilting. Detailed meteorological information was studied on 52 instances of large-scale lodging that occurred from 2007 to 2014. The results showed that strong wind's lodging accounted for 8% of the instances studied, continuous rainfall's lodging accounted for 19% and strong winds-heavy rainfall's accounted for 73%. The minimum instantaneous wind speed that could cause large-scale lodging was closely related to rainfall. Without rainfall, the wind speed that resulted in lodging ranging in severity from slight to severe (Level 2 to Level 5 was 14.9 m/s, 19.3 m/s, 21.5 m/s, and 26.5 m/s, respectively; when accompanied by rainfall, the wind speed that resulted in lodging of the same severity decreased linearly with the increase of rainfall. These results will be particularly useful in preventing and alleviating wheat lodging as well screening wheat varieties with good lodging resistance.

Assessing the Regional Frequency, Intensity, and Spatial Extent of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Bosma, C.; Wright, D.; Nguyen, P.

2017-12-01

While the strength of a hurricane is generally classified based on its wind speed, the unprecedented rainfall-driven flooding experienced in southeastern Texas during Hurricane Harvey clearly highlights the need for better understanding of the hazards associated with extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. In this study, we seek to develop a framework for describing the joint probabilistic and spatio-temporal properties of extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. Furthermore, we argue that commonly-used terminology - such as the "500-year storm" - fail to convey the true properties of tropical cyclone rainfall occurrences in the United States. To quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of these storms, a database consisting of hundreds of unique rainfall volumetric shapes (or "voxels") was created. Each voxel is a four-dimensional object, created by connecting, in both space and time, gridded rainfall observations from the daily, gauge-based NOAA CPC-Unified precipitation dataset. Individual voxels were then associated with concurrent tropical cyclone tracks from NOAA's HURDAT-2 archive, to create distinct representations of the rainfall associated with every Atlantic tropical system making landfall over (or passing near) the United States since 1948. Using these voxels, a series of threshold-excess extreme value models were created to estimate the recurrence intervals of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall, both nationally and locally, for single and multi-day timescales. This voxel database also allows for the "indexing" of past events, placing recent extremes - such as the 50+ inches of rain observed during Hurricane Harvey - into a national context and emphasizing how rainfall totals that are rare at the point scale may be more frequent from a regional perspective.

Combined effects of rainfall regime and plot length on runoff and soil loss in the Loess Plateau of China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, J.; Gao, G.; Wang, S.; Fu, B.

2017-12-01

The purpose of this paper was to study the interaction effects of rainfall regime and slope length on runoff and soil loss under different land uses. Event runoff and soil loss of forest, shrub and grass were measured in plots with length of 5, 9, or 13 m in the Loess Plateau from 2008 to 2016. Fifty-nine erosive rainfall events were recorded and classified into three rainfall regimes. The results firstly showed that the runoff coefficient was grass > shrub > forest, and soil loss was grass > forest > shrub, but the differences between forest and shrub in runoff and between grass and forest in soil loss didn't reach significant level. Secondly, rainfall regimes had important effect on runoff and soil loss of different land uses. The lowest runoff coefficients and the highest soil loss in regime 2 were found in shrub and forest land, respectively, which differed from that of regime 1. In total, rainfall regime 1 had the highest runoff coefficient of 0.84-2.06%, followed by regime 3 with 0.33-0.88%, and regime 2 with 0.04-0.06%. Soil loss in forest and grass land had a different order of regime 3 > regime 1 > regime 2. Thirdly, both the runoff coefficient and soil loss decreased with increasing plot length, while the effect of slope length on runoff/soil loss were influenced by land use type and rainfall regimes.

Modelling of extreme minimum rainfall using generalised extreme value distribution for Zimbabwe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Delson Chikobvu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available We modelled the mean annual rainfall for data recorded in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2009. Extreme value theory was used to estimate the probabilities of meteorological droughts. Droughts can be viewed as extreme events which go beyond and/or below normal rainfall occurrences, such as exceptionally low mean annual rainfall. The duality between the distribution of the minima and maxima was exploited and used to fit the generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD to the data and hence find probabilities of extreme low levels of mean annual rainfall. The augmented Dickey Fuller test confirmed that rainfall data were stationary, while the normal quantile-quantile plot indicated that rainfall data deviated from the normality assumption at both ends of the tails of the distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation method and the Bayesian approach were used to find the parameters of the GEVD. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodnessof- fit tests showed that the Weibull class of distributions was a good fit to the minima mean annual rainfall using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The mean return period estimate of a meteorological drought using the threshold value of mean annual rainfall of 473 mm was 8 years. This implies that if in the year there is a meteorological drought then another drought of the same intensity or greater is expected after 8 years. It is expected that the use of Bayesian inference may better quantify the level of uncertainty associated with the GEVD parameter estimates than with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the GEVD was applied to construct the model parameter estimates using the Bayesian approach. These findings are significant because results based on non-informative priors (Bayesian method and the maximum likelihood method approach are expected to be similar.

Influence of Spatial and Temporal Factors in Determining Rainfall Interception at Dipterocarp Forest Canopy, Lake Chini, Pahang

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nur Munirah Abdullah; Mohd Ekhwan Toriman; Haslinur Mohd Din

2013-01-01

The reduction of rainfall by interception process is influenced by two mechanisms namely climate and plant physiographic features. Climate features that affecting the interception loss including total rainfall (mm), wind speed (m/s) and temperature (degree Celsius). Meanwhile plant physiographic features that affect interception loss consists of trees height, skin, diameter, canopy, twigs and branches. Looking the role of climate and plant physiographic features in the interception process, this study was conducted in order to measure the throughfall, stem flow and interception loss and the factors that influence it. The assessment of throughfall and interception loss were carried out on study plot sized 100 x 100 meter in Dipterocarp Forest of Tasik Chini, Pahang. The study was conducted from October 2009 until January of 2010. Thirty tree samples are used and each tree is well-identified based on their species, family, diameter breast height (DBH), canopy size and its density. Four sets of throughfall were used to do throughfall measurements. Results of this study found that the value of throughfall and stem flow collected based on four rainfall events namely in October 2009 where 0.66 % (TF) and 99.34 % (SF), November 2009-0.54 % (TF) and 99.46 % (SF), December 2009-0.72 % (TF) and 99.28 % (SF) and January of 2010-0.49 % (TF) and 99.51 % (SF). Statistical analysis also indicates the existence of the relationship between total rainfall and interception loss with significant levels in 0.571 (r 2 ) in December of 2009. This study provides important information that related to the hydrological cycle and how plants canopy can be acted as a medium of water balance in the environment. (author)

Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model

Science.gov (United States)

Aronica, G. T.; Candela, A.

2007-12-01

SummaryIn this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribution whose parameters have been estimated at regional scale for Sicily. The catchment response has been modelled by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, in a semi-distributed form, for the transformation of total rainfall to effective rainfall and simple form of IUH for the flood routing. Here, SCS-CN method is implemented in probabilistic form with respect to prior-to-storm conditions, allowing to relax the classical iso-frequency assumption between rainfall and peak flow. The procedure is tested on six practical case studies where synthetic FFC (flood frequency curve) were obtained starting from model variables distributions by simulating 5000 flood events combining 5000 values of total rainfall depth for the storm duration and AMC (antecedent moisture conditions) conditions. The application of this procedure showed how Monte Carlo simulation technique can reproduce the observed flood frequency curves with reasonable accuracy over a wide range of return periods using a simple and parsimonious approach, limited data input and without any calibration of the rainfall-runoff model.

Exploring changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal variability in the Southeastern U.S.: Stakeholder engagement, observations, and adaptation

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Daniel R. Dourte

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The distribution of rainfall has major impacts in agriculture, affecting the soil, hydrology, and plant health in agricultural systems. The goal of this study was to test for recent changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal rainfall variability in the Southeastern U.S. by exploring the data collaboratively with agricultural stakeholders. Daily rainfall records from the Global Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze changes in rain intensity and seasonal rainfall variability. During the last 30 years (1985–2014, there has been a significant change (53% increase in the number of extreme rainfall days (>152.4 mm/day and there have been significant decreases in the number of moderate intensity (12.7–25.4 mm/day and heavy (25.4–76.2 mm/day rainfall days in the Southeastern U.S., when compared to the previous 30-year period (1955–1984. There have also been significant decreases in the return period of months in which greater than half of the monthly total rain occurred in a single day; this is an original, stakeholder-developed rainfall intensity metric. The variability in spring and summer rainfall increased during the last 30 years, but winter and fall showed less variability in seasonal totals in the last 30 years. In agricultural systems, rainfall is one of the leading factors affecting yield variability; so it can be expected that more variable rainfall and more intense rain events could bring new challenges to agricultural production. However, these changes can also present opportunities for producers who are taking measures to adjust management strategies to make their systems more resilient to increased rain intensity and variability.

Building rainfall thresholds for large-scales landslides by extracting occurrence time of landslides from seismic records

Science.gov (United States)

Yen, Hsin-Yi; Lin, Guan-Wei

2017-04-01

Understanding the rainfall condition which triggers mass moment on hillslope is the key to forecast rainfall-induced slope hazards, and the exact time of landslide occurrence is one of the basic information for rainfall statistics. In the study, we focused on large-scale landslides (LSLs) with disturbed area larger than 10 ha and conducted a string of studies including the recognition of landslide-induced ground motions and the analyses of different terms of rainfall thresholds. More than 10 heavy typhoons during the periods of 2005-2014 in Taiwan induced more than hundreds of LSLs and provided the opportunity to characterize the rainfall conditions which trigger LSLs. A total of 101 landslide-induced seismic signals were identified from the records of Taiwan seismic network. These signals exposed the occurrence time of landslide to assess rainfall conditions. Rainfall analyses showed that LSLs occurred when cumulative rainfall exceeded 500 mm. The results of rainfall-threshold analyses revealed that it is difficult to distinct LSLs from small-scale landslides (SSLs) by the I-D and R-D methods, but the I-R method can achieve the discrimination. Besides, an enhanced three-factor threshold considering deep water content was proposed as the rainfall threshold for LSLs.

Diversity of Rainfall Thresholds for early warning of hydro-geological disasters

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D. L. De Luca

2017-06-01

Full Text Available For early warning of disasters induced by precipitation (such as floods and landslides, different kinds of rainfall thresholds are adopted, which vary from each other, on the basis on adopted hypotheses. In some cases, they represent the occurrence probability of an event (landslide or flood, in other cases the exceedance probability of a critical value for an assigned indicator I (a function of rainfall heights, and in further cases they only indicate the exceeding of a prefixed percentage a critical value for I, indicated as Icr. For each scheme, it is usual to define three different criticality levels (ordinary, moderate and severe, which are associated to warning levels, according to emergency plans. This work briefly discusses different schemes of rainfall thresholds, focusing attention on landslide prediction, with some applications to a real case study in Calabria region (southern Italy.

The role of mesoscale convective systems in the diurnal cycle of rainfall and its seasonality over sub-Saharan Northern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Weiran; Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K.

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the role of MCSs in the total rainfall distribution as a function of season from a climatological perspective (1998-2014) over sub-Saharan northern Africa and examines how the diurnal cycle of rainfall changes with season. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42V7 rainfall estimates and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to evaluate the climatology. The percentages of the full TRMM precipitation delivered by MCSs have meridional structures in spring, fall and winter, ranging from 0 to 80% across sub-Saharan northern Africa, while the percentages are homogenous in summer (> 80%). The diurnal cycles of MCS-associated precipitation coincide with the full TRMM rainfall. Attributes of MCSs, including size, count, and intensity, vary synchronously with the diurnal cycle of rainfall. The diurnal peaks are classified into three categories: single afternoon peak, continuous afternoon peak, and nocturnal peak. Single afternoon peaks dominate in spring and fall while continuous afternoon and nocturnal peaks are more common in summer, indicating the seasonality of the diurnal cycle. The continuous afternoon peak combines rainfall from two system types—one locally-generated and one propagating. The seasonality of the diurnal cycle is related to the seasonality of MCS lifetimes, and propagation speeds and directions. The moisture component of the MSE profile contributes to the instability most in summer when convection is more frequent. Low-level temperature, which is related to surface warming and sensible heat fluxes, influences the instability more during winter and spring.

Validation of Satellite Estimates (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM for Rainfall Variability over the Pacific Slope and Coast of Ecuador

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Bolívar Erazo

2018-02-01

Full Text Available A dense rain-gauge network within continental Ecuador was used to evaluate the quality of various products of rainfall data over the Pacific slope and coast of Ecuador (EPSC. A cokriging interpolation method is applied to the rain-gauge data yielding a gridded product at 5-km resolution covering the period 1965–2015. This product is compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC dataset, the Climatic Research Unit–University of East Anglia (CRU dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM/TMPA 3B43 Version 7 dataset and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. The analysis reveals that TRMM data show the most realistic features. The relative bias index (Rbias indicates that TRMM data is closer to the observations, mainly over lowlands (mean Rbias of 7% but have more limitations in reproducing the rainfall variability over the Andes (mean Rbias of −28%. The average RMSE and Rbias of 68.7 and −2.8% of TRMM are comparable with the GPCC (69.8 and 5.7% and CRU (102.3 and −2.3% products. This study also focuses on the rainfall inter-annual variability over the study region which experiences floods that have caused high economic losses during extreme El Niño events. Finally, our analysis evaluates the ability of TRMM data to reproduce rainfall events during El Niño years over the study area and the large basins of Esmeraldas and Guayas rivers. The results show that TRMM estimates report reasonable levels of heavy rainfall detection (for the extreme 1998 El Niño event over the EPSC and specifically towards the center-south of the EPSC (Guayas basin but present underestimations for the moderate El Niño of 2002–2003 event and the weak 2009–2010 event. Generally, the rainfall seasonal features, quantity and long-term climatology patterns are relatively well estimated by TRMM.

Analysis of rainfall characteristics and its related disasters of slag disposal pit of a certain Gold-Copper Deposit in Fujian province

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Huali; Hu, Mingjian; Ou, Guoqiang

2017-04-01

According to the geological investigation in Fujian province, the total number of geological disasters was 9513, in which the number of landslide, collapse, unstable slope and surface collapse was 5816, 1888, 1591, 103 and 115 respectively. The main geological disaster was the landslide with 61.1% of total geological disasters. Among all these geological disasters, only 6.0% was relative stable, 17.0% was basic stable, nearly 76.0% was unstable. The slope disaster was the main geological disaster, if the unstable slope was the potential landslide or collapse; the slope collapse was 98.0% of all geological disasters. The rainfall, in particular the heavy rain, was direct dynamic factor for geological disasters, but the occurrence probability of geological disasters was different because of the sensitivity of the geological environment though of the same intensity rainfall. To obtain the characteristics of soil erosion under the rainfall condition, the rainfall characteristics and its related disasters of slag disposal pit of a certain Gold-Copper Deposit in Fujian province was analyzed by the meteorological and rainfall data. According to the distribution of monitoring stations of hydrological and rainfall in Longyan city of Fujian province and the location of gold-copper deposit, the Shanghang monitoring station of hydrological and rainfall was chosen, which is the nearest one to the gold-copper deposit. Then main parameters of the prediction model, the antecedent precipitation, the rainfall on the day and the rainfall threshold, were calculated by using the rainfall data from 2002 to 2010. And the relationship between geological disasters and the rainfall characteristics were analyzed. The results indicated that there was high risk for the debris flow with landslide collapse when either the daily rainfall was more than 100.0 mm, or the total rainfall was more than 136.0mm in the gold-copper deposit and the Shanghang region. At the same time, although there was few

Rainfall intensity effects on removal of fecal indicator bacteria from solid dairy manure applied over grass-covered soil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blaustein, Ryan A., E-mail: rblauste@ufl.edu [USDA-ARS Environmental Microbial and Food Safety Laboratory, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, MD (United States); Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Hill, Robert L. [Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Micallef, Shirley A. [Department of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Center for Food Safety and Security Systems, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Shelton, Daniel R.; Pachepsky, Yakov A. [USDA-ARS Environmental Microbial and Food Safety Laboratory, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, MD (United States)

2016-01-01

The rainfall-induced release of pathogens and microbial indicators from land-applied manure and their subsequent removal with runoff and infiltration precedes the impairment of surface and groundwater resources. It has been assumed that rainfall intensity and changes in intensity during rainfall do not affect microbial removal when expressed as a function of rainfall depth. The objective of this work was to test this assumption by measuring the removal of Escherichia coli, enterococci, total coliforms, and chloride ion from dairy manure applied in soil boxes containing fescue, under 3, 6, and 9 cm h{sup −1} of rainfall. Runoff and leachate were collected at increasing time intervals during rainfall, and post-rainfall soil samples were taken at 0, 2, 5, and 10 cm depths. Three kinetic-based models were fitted to the data on manure-constituent removal with runoff. Rainfall intensity appeared to have positive effects on rainwater partitioning to runoff, and removal with this effluent type occurred in two stages. While rainfall intensity generally did not impact the parameters of runoff-removal models, it had significant, inverse effects on the numbers of bacteria remaining in soil after rainfall. As rainfall intensity and soil profile depth increased, the numbers of indicator bacteria tended to decrease. The cumulative removal of E. coli from manure exceeded that of enterococci, especially in the form of removal with infiltration. This work may be used to improve the parameterization of models for bacteria removal with runoff and to advance estimations of depths of bacteria removal with infiltration, both of which are critical to risk assessment of microbial fate and transport in the environment. - Highlights: • Release and removal of indicator bacteria from manure was evaluated in soil boxes. • Rainfall intensity did not impact runoff-removal kinetics in three tested models. • Rainfall intensity had positive/inverse effects on bacterial release to runoff

Adjustment of rainfall estimates from weather radars using in-situ stormwater drainage sensors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahm, Malte

importance as long as the estimated flow and water levels are correct. It makes sense to investigate the possibility of adjusting weather radar data to rainfall-runoff measurements instead of rain gauge measurements in order to obtain better predictions of flow and water levels. This Ph.D. study investigates......-rain gauge adjusted data is applied for urban drainage models, discrepancies between radar-estimated runoff and observed runoff still occur. The aim of urban drainage applications is to estimate flow and water levels in critical points in the system. The “true” rainfall at ground level is, therefore, of less...... how rainfall-runoff measurements can be utilised to adjust weather radars. Two traditional adjustments methods based on rain gauges were used as the basis for developing two radar-runoff adjustment methods. The first method is based on the ZR relationship describing the relation between radar...

Forecasting the heavy rainfall during Himalayan flooding—June 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anumeha Dube

2014-08-01

Verification of the synoptic features in forecasts of the two models suggests that NCUM accurately captures the circulation features as compared to T574. Further verification of this event is carried out based on the contiguous rain area (CRA technique. CRA verification is used in computing the total mean square error (MSE which is based on displacement, volume and pattern errors. This verification technique also, confirms the better skill of NCUM over T574 in terms of forecast peak rainfall amounts, volume and average rain rate, lower MSE and root mean square error (RMSE as well as having higher hit rates and lower misses and false alarm rates for different rainfall thresholds from Day 1 to Day 5 forecasts.

Mapping the N-Year design rainfall - A case study for the Western Cape

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Khuluse, S

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Africa. The point process approach to extreme value theory is employed to quantify the 50-year winter rainfall return level estimate from daily rainfall data from fifteen stations in the Western Cape. Ordinary kriging is used to estimate the 50-year...

An Advanced Method to Apply Multiple Rainfall Thresholds for Urban Flood Warnings

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Jiun-Huei Jang

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Issuing warning information to the public when rainfall exceeds given thresholds is a simple and widely-used method to minimize flood risk; however, this method lacks sophistication when compared with hydrodynamic simulation. In this study, an advanced methodology is proposed to improve the warning effectiveness of the rainfall threshold method for urban areas through deterministic-stochastic modeling, without sacrificing simplicity and efficiency. With regards to flooding mechanisms, rainfall thresholds of different durations are divided into two groups accounting for flooding caused by drainage overload and disastrous runoff, which help in grading the warning level in terms of emergency and severity when the two are observed together. A flood warning is then classified into four levels distinguished by green, yellow, orange, and red lights in ascending order of priority that indicate the required measures, from standby, flood defense, evacuation to rescue, respectively. The proposed methodology is tested according to 22 historical events in the last 10 years for 252 urbanized townships in Taiwan. The results show satisfactory accuracy in predicting the occurrence and timing of flooding, with a logical warning time series for taking progressive measures. For systems with multiple rainfall thresholds already in place, the methodology can be used to ensure better application of rainfall thresholds in urban flood warnings.

Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls under climate change

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Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-04-01

More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Future of Rainfall Estimation from Space

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Kakar, Ramesh; Adler, Robert; Smith, Eric; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Tropical rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics, NASA for the U.S.A. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of a satellite mission to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated latent heat release. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched on November 27, 1997, and data from all the instruments first became available approximately 30 days after launch. Since then, much progress has been made in the calibration of the sensors, the improvement of the rainfall algorithms and applications of these results to areas such as Data Assimilation and model initialization. TRMM has reduced the uncertainty of climatological rainfall in tropics by over a factor of two, therefore establishing a standard for comparison with previous data sets and climatologies. It has documented the diurnal variation of precipitation over the oceans, showing a distinct early morning peak and this satellite mission has shown the utility of precipitation information for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts and climate modeling. This paper discusses some promising applications using TRMM data and introduces a measurement concept being discussed by NASA/NASDA and ESA for the future of rainfall estimation from space.

Temperature and rainfall are related to fertility rate after spring artificial insemination in small ruminants

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Abecia, J. A.; Arrébola, F.; Macías, A.; Laviña, A.; González-Casquet, O.; Benítez, F.; Palacios, C.

2016-10-01

A total number of 1092 artificial inseminations (AIs) performed from March to May were documented over four consecutive years on 10 Payoya goat farms (36° N) and 19,392 AIs on 102 Rasa Aragonesa sheep farms (41° N) over 10 years. Mean, maximum, and minimum ambient temperatures, mean relative humidity, mean solar radiation, and total rainfall on each insemination day were recorded. Overall, fertility rates were 58 % in goats and 45 % in sheep. The fertility rates of the highest and lowest deciles of each of the meteorological variables indicated that temperature and rainfall had a significant effect on fertility in goats. Specifically, inseminations that were performed when mean (68 %), maximum (68 %), and minimum (66 %) temperatures were in the highest decile, and rainfall was in the lowest decile (59 %), had a significantly ( P goats and sheep.

Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

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Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne L.; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal

2018-04-01

In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones' heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cyclone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-h accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set

Multivariate Analysis of Erosivity Indices and Rainfall Physical Characteristics Associated with Rainfall Patterns in Rio de Janeiro

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Roriz Luciano Machado

2017-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The identification of areas with greater erosive potential is important for planning soil and water conservation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical characteristics of rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and their interactions with rainfall patterns through multivariate statistical analysis. Rainfall depth, kinetic energy, 30-min intensity (I30, duration of rainfall events, and the erosivity indices KE >10, KE >25, and EI30 in 36 locations (stations were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA. Based on evaluation of the respective historical series of hyetographs, it was found that the advanced pattern occurs with highest frequency (51.8 %, followed by the delayed pattern (26.1 %, and by the intermediate pattern (22.1 %. All the evaluated rainfall characteristics have high response capacity in describing localities and rainfall patterns through PCA and CDA. In CDA, the Tukey test (p<0.05 applied to the scores of the first canonical discriminant function (CDF1 allowed differentiation of the stations with respect to the rainfall and erosivity characteristics for the advanced and delayed patterns. In the delayed pattern, the localities of Angra dos Reis, Campos, Eletrobrás, Manuel Duarte, Santa Isabel do Rio Preto, Tanguá, Teresópolis, Vila Mambucaba, and Xerém had the highest CDF1 scores, indicating that they have rainfalls with higher depth, I30, and duration because the standardized canonical coefficient (SCC and the correlation coefficient (“r” of these characteristics were positive. The rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro differ from one locality to another in relation to the advanced and delayed rainfall patterns, mainly due to the physical characteristics of rainfall depth, I30, and duration, indicating a higher risk of soil loss and runoff in the localities where rainfall events with the delayed pattern prevail.

Forecasting of rainfall using ocean-atmospheric indices with a fuzzy neural technique

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Srivastava, Gaurav; Panda, Sudhindra N.; Mondal, Pratap; Liu, Junguo

2010-12-01

SummaryForecasting of rainfall is imperative for rainfed agriculture of arid and semi-arid regions of the world where agriculture consumes nearly 80% of the total water demand. Fuzzy-Ranking Algorithm (FRA) is used to identify the significant input variables for rainfall forecast. A case study is carried out to forecast monthly rainfall in India with several ocean-atmospheric predictor variables. Three different scenarios of ocean-atmospheric predictor variables are used as a set of possible input variables for rainfall forecasting model: (1) two climate indices, i.e. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI); (2) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the 5° × 5° grid points in Indian Ocean; and (3) both the climate indices and SSTa. To generate a set of possible input variables for these scenarios, we use climatic indices and the SSTa data with different lags between 1 and 12 months. Nonlinear relationship between identified inputs and rainfall is captured with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique. A new approach based on fuzzy c-mean clustering is proposed for dividing data into representative subsets for training, testing, and validation. The results show that this proposed approach overcomes the difficulty in determining optimal numbers of clusters associated with the data division technique of self-organized map. The ANN model developed with both the climate indices and SSTa shows the best performance for the forecast of the monthly August rainfall in India. Similar approach can be applied to forecast rainfall of any period at selected climatic regions of the world where significant relationship exists between the rainfall and climate indices.

Weather model performance on extreme rainfall events simulation's over Western Iberian Peninsula

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Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Kaiser, J. J.; Rocha, A.

2012-08-01

This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-ARW numerical weather model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed for the December month of 2009, during the Portugal Mainland rainy season. The heavy rainfall to extreme heavy rainfall periods were due to several low surface pressure's systems associated with frontal surfaces. The total amount of precipitation for December exceeded, in average, the climatological mean for the 1971-2000 time period in +89 mm, varying from 190 mm (south part of the country) to 1175 mm (north part of the country). Three model runs were conducted to assess possible improvements in model performance: (1) the WRF-ARW is forced with the initial fields from a global domain model (RunRef); (2) data assimilation for a specific location (RunObsN) is included; (3) nudging is used to adjust the analysis field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated against an observed hourly precipitation dataset of 15 rainfall stations using several statistical parameters. The WRF-ARW model reproduced well the temporal rainfall patterns but tended to overestimate precipitation amounts. The RunGridN simulation provided the best results but model performance of the other two runs was good too, so that the selected extreme rainfall episode was successfully reproduced.

Lysimeter study to investigate the effect of rainfall patterns on leaching of isoproturon.

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Beulke, Sabine; Brown, Colin D; Fryer, Christopher J; Walker, Allan

2002-01-01

The influence of five rainfall treatments on water and solute leaching through two contrasting soil types was investigated. Undisturbed lysimeters (diameter 0.25 m, length 0.5 m) from a sandy loam (Wick series) and a moderately structured clay loam (Hodnet series) received autumn applications of the radio-labelled pesticide isoproturon and bromide tracer. Target rainfall plus irrigation from the end of November 1997 to May 1998 ranged from drier to wetter than average (235 to 414 mm); monthly rainfall was varied according to a pre-selected pattern or kept constant (triplicate lysimeters per regime). Leachate was collected at intervals and concentrations of the solutes were determined. Total flow (0.27-0.94 pore volumes) and losses of bromide (3-80% of applied) increased with increasing inputs of water and were larger from the Wick sandy loam than from the Hodnet clay loam soil. Matrix flow appeared to be the main mechanism for transport of isoproturon through the Wick soil whereas there was a greater influence of preferential flow for the Hodnet lysimeters. The total leached load of isoproturon from the Wick lysimeters was 0.02-0.26% of that applied. There was no clear variation in transport processes between the rainfall treatments investigated for this soil and there was an approximately linear relationship (r2 = 0.81) between leached load and total flow. Losses of isoproturon from the Hodnet soil were 0.03-0.39% of applied and there was evidence of enhanced preferential flow in the driest and wettest treatments. Leaching of isoproturon was best described by an exponential relationship between load and total flow (r2 = 0.62). A 45% increase in flow between the two wettest treatments gave a 100% increase in leaching of isoproturon from the Wick soil. For the Hodnet lysimeters, a 35% increase in flow between the same treatments increased herbicide loss by 325%.

Rainfall thresholds as a landslide indicator for engineered slopes on the Irish Rail network

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Martinović, Karlo; Gavin, Kenneth; Reale, Cormac; Mangan, Cathal

2018-04-01

Rainfall thresholds express the minimum levels of rainfall that need to be reached or exceeded in order for landslides to occur in a particular area. They are a common tool in expressing the temporal portion of landslide hazard analysis. Numerous rainfall thresholds have been developed for different areas worldwide, however none of these are focused on landslides occurring on the engineered slopes on transport infrastructure networks. This paper uses empirical method to develop the rainfall thresholds for landslides on the Irish Rail network earthworks. For comparison, rainfall thresholds are also developed for natural terrain in Ireland. The results show that particular thresholds involving relatively low rainfall intensities are applicable for Ireland, owing to the specific climate. Furthermore, the comparison shows that rainfall thresholds for engineered slopes are lower than those for landslides occurring on the natural terrain. This has severe implications as it indicates that there is a significant risk involved when using generic weather alerts (developed largely for natural terrain) for infrastructure management, and showcases the need for developing railway and road specific rainfall thresholds for landslides.

The modification of the typhoon rainfall climatology model in Taiwan

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C.-S. Lee

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study is focused on the modification of a typhoon rainfall climatological model, by using the dataset up to 2006 and including data collected from rain gauge stations established after the 921 earthquake (1999. Subsequently, the climatology rainfall models for westward- and northward-moving typhoons are established by using the typhoon track classification from the Central Weather Bureau. These models are also evaluated and examined using dependent cases collected between 1989 and 2006 and independent cases collected from 2007 to 2011. For the dependent cases, the average total rainfall at all rain gauge stations forecasted using the climatology rainfall models for westward- (W-TRCM12 and northward-moving (N-TRCM12 typhoons is superior to that obtained using the original climatological model (TRCM06. Model W-TRCM12 significantly improves the precipitation underestimation of model TRCM06. The independent cases show that model W-TRCM12 provides better accumulated rainfall forecasts and distributions than model TRCM06. A climatological model for accompanied northeastern monsoons (A-TRCM12 for special typhoon types has also been established. The current A-TRCM12 model only contains five historical cases and various typhoon combinations can cause precipitation in different regions. Therefore, precipitation is likely to be significantly overestimated and high false alarm ratios are likely to occur in specific regions. For example, model A-TRCM12 significantly overestimates the rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mitag, an independent case from 2007. However, it has a higher probability of detection than model TRCM06. From a disaster prevention perspective, a high probability of detection is much more important than a high false alarm ratio. The modified models can contribute significantly to operational forecast.

[Characteristics of nutrient loss by runoff in sloping arable land of yellow-brown under different rainfall intensities].

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Chen, Ling; Liu, De-Fu; Song, Lin-Xu; Cui, Yu-Jie; Zhang, Gei

2013-06-01

In order to investigate the loss characteristics of N and P through surface flow and interflow under different rainfall intensities, a field experiment was conducted on the sloping arable land covered by typical yellow-brown soils inXiangxi River watershed by artificial rainfall. The results showed that the discharge of surface flow, total runoff and sediment increased with the increase of rain intensity, while the interflow was negatively correlated with rain intensity under the same total rainfall. TN, DN and DP were all flushed at the very beginning in surface flow underdifferent rainfall intensities; TP fluctuated and kept consistent in surface flow without obvious downtrend. While TN, DN and DP in interflow kept relatively stable in the whole runoff process, TP was high at the early stage, then rapidly decreased with time and kept steady finally. P was directly influenced by rainfall intensity, its concentration in the runoff increased with the increase of the rainfall intensity, the average concentration of N and P both exceeded the threshold of eutrophication of freshwater. The higher the amount of P loss was, the higher the rain intensity. The change of N loss was the opposite. The contribution rate of TN loss carried by surface flow increased from 36.5% to 57.6% with the increase of rainfall intensity, but surface flow was the primary form of P loss which contributed above 90.0%. Thus, it is crucial to control interflow in order to reduce N loss. In addition, measures should be taken to effectively manage soil erosion to mitigate P loss. The proportion of dissolved nitrogen in surface flow elevated with the decrease of rainfall intensity, but in interflow, dissolved form was predominant. P was exported mainly in the form of particulate under different rainfall intensities and runoff conditions.

Impact of Rainfall, Land-Cover and Population Growth on Groundwater - A Case Study From Karnataka State, India

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Srivastav, R. K.; Chinnapa Reddy, A. R.

2015-12-01

Recent trends in climate, land-use pattern and population has affected almost every portable water resources in the world. Due to depleting surface water and untimely distribution of precipitation, the demand to use groundwater has increased considerably. Further recent studies have shown that the groundwater stress is more in developing countries like India. This study focuses on understanding the impacts of three major factors (i.e., rainfall, land-cover and population growth) effecting the groundwater levels. For this purpose, the correlation between the trends in groundwater time series is compared with trends in rainfall, land-cover and population growth. To detect the trends in time series, two statistical methods namely, least square method and Mann-Kendall method, are adopted. The results were analyzed based on the measurements from 1800 observation wells in the Karnataka state, India. The data is obtained for a total of 9 year time period ranging from 2005 to 2013. A gridded precipitation data of 0.5o× 0.5o over the entire region is used. The change in land-cover and population data was approximately obtained from the local governing bodies. The early results show significant correlation between rainfall and groundwater time series trends. The outcomes will assess the vulnerability of groundwater levels under changing physical and hydroclimatic conditions, especially under climate change.

How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall-runoff model? Findings obtained from symbolic regression, using Eureqa

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Abrahart, R. J.; Beriro, D. J.

2012-04-01

The information content in a rainfall-runoff record is sufficient to support models of only very limited complexity (Jakeman and Hornberger, 1993). This begs the question of what limits should observed data place on the allowable complexity of rainfall-runoff models? Eureqa1 (Schmidt and Lipson, 2009) - pronounced "eureka" - is a software tool for finding equations and detecting mathematical relationships in a dataset. The challenge, for both software and modeller, is to identify, by means of symbolic regression, the simplest mathematical formulas which describe the underlying mechanisms that produced the data. It actually delivers, however, a series of preferred modelling solutions comprising one champion for each specific level of complexity i.e. related to solution enlargement involving the progressive incorporation of additional permitted factors (internal operators/ external drivers). The potential benefit of increased complexity can as a result be assessed in a rational manner. Eureqa is free to download and use; and, in the current study, has been employed to construct a set of rainfall-runoff transfer function models for the Annapolis River at Wilmot, in north-western Nova Scotia, Canada. The climatic conditions in this catchment present an interesting set of modelling challenges; daily variations and seasonal changes in temperature, snowfall and retention result in great difficulty for runoff prediction by means of a data-driven approach. Data from 10 years of daily observations are used in the present study (01/01/2000-31/12/2009): comprising [i] discharge, [ii] total rainfall (excluding snowfall), [iii] total snowfall, [iv] thickness of snow cover, and [v] maximum and [vi] minimum temperature. Precipitation occurs throughout the whole year being slightly lower during summer. Snowfall is common from November until April and rare hurricane weather may occur in autumn. The average maximum temperature is below 0 0C in January and February, but significant

TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

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Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

2012-04-01

(snake line) were independently plotted to investigate the impact of short-term rainfall intensity and accumulated effective rainfall volume respectively for obtaining some probabilistic threshold. Japanese SWI was also tested to distribute threshold regarding to highly nonlinear rainfall patterns in predicting the landslide occurrence through the plot of total water of 3 serial tank models and daily precipitation. As a result, the snake line plots using TMPA work well for landslide warning in the selected cities; while SWI plots shows unusual peak value on the day of the debris flow occurrence. Graph of daily precipitation vs SWI implies possible zone of critical line, and second peak appearance 1 day before, indicating possibility of early warning.

Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

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Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

2009-04-01

Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

Inter-Annual Variability Of Rainfall In Some States Of Southern Nigeria

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Egor

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract The study inter-annual variability of rainfall in some states in Southern Nigeria focuses on analyzing the trends and fluctuations in annual rainfall over six states in Southern Nigeria covering a period of 1972 2012. In order to ascertain the variabilitys and to model the annual rainfall for future prediction to enhance policy implementation the quantitative and descriptive analysis techniques was employed. The rainfall series were analyzed for fluctuations using Standardized Anomaly Index SAI whereas the trends were examined using Statistical Package for Social Science Software SPSS 17.0. At 95 percent confidence level observations in the stations may be signals that the wetter period dominates the drier periods in this study. Each of the series contains two distinct periods when the rainfall anomalies negative and positive of a particular type were most significant. The period where the annual rainfall is above one standard deviation from the mean annual rainfall is considered Wet and the period below one standard deviation from the mean annual rainfall is considered Dry for each station. The results of the linear trend lines revealed an increase in rainfall supply over the period of study especially of recent. The annual rate of increase in rainfall over the period of investigation 1972 - 2012 were 15.21mmyear for Calabar 2.18mmyear for Port Harcourt 22.23mmyear for Owerri 3.25mmyear for Benin City 5.08mmyear for Enugu and 16.29mmyear for Uyo respectively. The variability in amount of annual rainfall revealed that in 2012 Calabar received the highest amount of rainfall of about 4062.70mm and the least value of 2099.4mm in 1973. In Porthacourt the highest amount of rainfall occurred in 1993 with a value of 3911.70mm and the least value in 1983 with a value of 1816.4mm. Owerri recorded the highest amount of rainfall of about 3064.0mm in 2011 and the least value occurred in 1986 with a value of 1228.4mm. In 1976 Benin received the

Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars - computer experiments including hydrological modeling

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Rabiei, Ehsan; Haberlandt, Uwe; Sester, Monika; Fitzner, Daniel; Wallner, Markus

2016-09-01

The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rain rate. The optical sensors used in that study are designed for operating the windscreen wipers and showed promising results for rainfall measurement purposes. Their measurement accuracy has been quantified in laboratory experiments. Considering explicitly those errors, the main objective of this study is to investigate the benefit of using RCs for estimating areal rainfall. For that, computer experiments are carried out, where radar rainfall is considered as the reference and the other sources of data, i.e., RCs and rain gauges, are extracted from radar data. Comparing the quality of areal rainfall estimation by RCs with rain gauges and reference data helps to investigate the benefit of the RCs. The value of this additional source of data is not only assessed for areal rainfall estimation performance but also for use in hydrological modeling. Considering measurement errors derived from laboratory experiments, the result shows that the RCs provide useful additional information for areal rainfall estimation as well as for hydrological modeling. Moreover, by testing larger uncertainties for RCs, they observed to be useful up to a certain level for areal rainfall estimation and discharge simulation.

Inter-Seasonal and Annual Co-Variation of Smallholder Production Portfolios, Volumes and Incomes with Rainfall and Flood Levels in the Amazon Estuary: Implications for Building Livelihood Resilience to Increasing Variability of Hydro-Climatic Regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Vogt, N. D.; Fernandes, K.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Brondizio, E. S.; Almeida, O.; Rivero, S.; Rabelo, F. R.; Dou, Y.; Deadman, P.

2014-12-01

In this paper we investigate inter-seasonal and annual co-variations of rainfall and flood levels with Caboclo production portfolios, and proportions of it they sell and consume, in the Amazon Estuary from August 2012 to August 2014. Caboclos of the estuary maintain a diverse and flexible land-use portfolio, with a shift in dominant use from agriculture to agroforestry and forestry since WWII (Vogt et al., 2014). The current landscape is configured for acai, shrimp and fish production. In the last decade the frequency of wet seasons with anomalous flood levels and duration has increased primarily from changes in rainfall and discharge from upstream basins. Local rainfall, though with less influence on extreme estuarine flood levels, is reported to be more sporadic and intense in wet season and variable in both wet and dry seasons, for yet unknown reasons. The current production portfolio and its flexibility are felt to build resilience to these increases in hydro-climatic variability and extreme events. What is less understood, for time and costliness of daily measures at household levels, is how variations in flood and rainfall levels affect shifts in the current production portfolio of estuarine Caboclos, and the proportions of it they sell and consume. This is needed to identify what local hydro-climatic thresholds are extreme for current livelihoods, that is, that most adversely affect food security and income levels. It is also needed identify the large-scale forcings driving those extreme conditions to build forecasts for when they will occur. Here we present results of production, rainfall and flood data collected daily in households from both the North and South Channel of the Amazon estuary over last two years to identify how they co-vary, and robustness of current production portfolio under different hydro-climatic conditions.

What rainfall events trigger landslides on the West Coast US?

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Biasutti, Michela; Seager, Richard; Kirschbaum, Dalia

2016-04-01

A dataset of landslide occurrences compiled by collating google news reports covers 9 full years of data. We show that, while this compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it is adequate to capture the distribution of events in the major urban areas of the West Coast US and it can be used to provide a quantitative relationship between landslides and rainfall events. The case of the Seattle metropolitan area is presented as an example. The landslide dataset shows a clear seasonality in landslide occurrence, corresponding to the seasonality of rainfall, modified by the accumulation of soil moisture as winter progresses. Interannual variability of landslide occurrences is also linked to interannual variability of monthly rainfall. In most instances, landslides are clustered on consecutive days or at least within the same pentad and correspond to days of large rainfall accumulation at the regional scale. A joint analysis of the landslide data and of the high-resolution PRISM daily rainfall accumulation shows that on days when landslides occurred, the distribution of rainfall was shifted, with rainfall accumulation higher than 10mm/day being more common. Accumulations above 50mm/day much increase the probability of landslides, including the possibility of a major landslide event (one with multiple landslides in a day). The synoptic meteorological conditions associated with these major events show a mid-tropospheric ridge to the south of the target area steering a surface low and bringing enhanced precipitable water towards the Pacific North West. The interaction of the low-level flow with the local orography results in instances of a strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone, with widespread rainfall accumulation above 30mm/day and localized maxima as high as 100mm/day or more.

Future rainfall variations reduce abundances of aboveground arthropods in model agroecosystems with different soil types

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Johann G. Zaller

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Climate change scenarios for Central Europe predict less frequent but heavier rainfalls and longer drought periods during the growing season. This is expected to alter arthropods in agroecosystems that are important as biocontrol agents, herbivores or food for predators (e.g. farmland birds. In a lysimeter facility (totally 18 3-m2-plots, we experimentally tested the effects of long-term past vs. prognosticated future rainfall variations (15% increased rainfall per event, 25% more dry days according to regionalized climate change models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC on aboveground arthropods in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cultivated at three different soil types (calcaric phaeozem, calcic chernozem and gleyic phaeozem. Soil types were established 17 years and rainfall treatments one month before arthropod sampling; treatments were fully crossed and replicated three times. Aboveground arthropods were assessed by suction sampling, their mean abundances (± SD differed between April, May and June with 20 ± 3 m-2, 90 ± 35 m-2 and 289 ± 93 individuals m-2, respectively. Averaged across sampling dates, future rainfall reduced the abundance of spiders (Araneae, -47%, cicadas and leafhoppers (Auchenorrhyncha, -39%, beetles (Coleoptera, -52%, ground beetles (Carabidae, -41%, leaf beetles (Chrysomelidae, -64%, spring tails (Collembola, -58%, flies (Diptera, -73% and lacewings (Neuroptera, -73% but increased the abundance of snails (Gastropoda, +69%. Across sampling dates, soil types had no effects on arthropod abundances. Arthropod diversity was neither affected by rainfall nor soil types. Arthropod abundance was positively correlated with weed biomass for almost all taxa; abundance of Hemiptera and of total arthropods was positively correlated with weed density. These detrimental effects of future rainfall varieties on arthropod taxa in wheat fields can potentially alter arthropod-associated agroecosystem services.

The impact of Indian Ocean high pressure system on rainfall and stream flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehman, S.; Nasir, H.; Zia, S.S.; Ansari, W.A.; Salam, K.; Tayyab, N.

2012-01-01

Centre of Action approach is very useful in getting insight of rainfall and stream flow variability of specific region. Hameed et al. showed that Inter-annual variability of Gulf Stream north wall is influenced by low Icelandic pressure system and has more statistically significant correlation than North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with longitude of Icelandic low. This study also aims to explore possible relationships between rainfall and stream flow in Collie river catchment in Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) with Indian Ocean high pressure dynamics. The relationship between rainfall and stream flow with Indian Ocean high pressure system have been investigated using correlation analysis for early winter season (MJJA), lag correlation for MJJA versus SOND rainfall and stream flow are also calculated and found significant at 95% confidence level. By investigating the relationship between COA indices with rainfall and stream flow over the period 1976-2008, significant correlations suggests that rainfall and stream flow in Collie river basin is strongly influenced by COA indices. Multiple correlations between rainfall and stream flow with Indian Ocean high pressure (IOHPS and IOHLN) is 0.7 and 0.6 respectively. Centers of Action (COA) indices explain 51% and 36% of rainfall and stream flow respectively. The correlation between rainfall and stream flow with IOHPS is -0.4 and -0.3 whereas, with IOHLN is -0.47 and -0.52 respectively. (author)

Relations Between Rainfall and Postfire Debris-Flow and Flood Magnitudes for Emergency-Response Planning, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Cannon, Susan H.; Boldt, Eric M.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme; Staley, Dennis M.

2010-01-01

Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies are faced often with making evacuation decisions and deploying resources both well in advance of each coming winter storm and during storms themselves. Information critical to this process is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for the San Gabriel Mountains twice a day, at approximately 4 a.m. and 4 p.m., along with unscheduled updates when conditions change. QPFs provide estimates of rainfall totals in 3-hour increments for the first 12-hour period and in 6-hour increments for the second 12-hour period. Estimates of one-hour rainfall intensities can be provided in the forecast narrative, along with probable peak intensities and timing, although with less confidence than rainfall totals. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands was used to develop a system for classifying the magnitude of the postfire hydrologic response. The four-class system is based on a combination of the reported volume of individual debris flows, the consequences of these events in an urban setting, and the spatial extent of the response to the triggering storm. Threshold rainfall conditions associated with debris flow and floods of different magnitude classes are defined by integrating local rainfall data with debris-flow and flood magnitude information. The within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) and durations (D) above which magnitude I events are expected are defined by A=0.3D0.6. The function A=0.5D0.6 defines the within-storm rainfall accumulations and durations above which a magnitude III event will occur in response to a regional-scale storm, and a magnitude II event will occur if the storm affects only a few drainage basins. The function A=1.0D0.5defines the rainfall conditions above which

The cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis of spatio-temporal rainfall-groundwater system in Pingtung plain, Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2013-04-01

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events has been observed recently in Taiwan. Particularly, Typhoon Morakot, Typhoon Fanapi, and Typhoon Megi consecutively brought record-breaking intensity and magnitude of rainfalls to different locations of Taiwan in these two years. However, records show the extreme rainfall events did not elevate the amount of annual rainfall accordingly. Conversely, the increasing frequency of droughts has also been occurring in Taiwan. The challenges have been confronted by governmental agencies and scientific communities to come up with effective adaptation strategies for natural disaster reduction and sustainable environment establishment. Groundwater has long been a reliable water source for a variety of domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses because of its stable quantity and quality. In Taiwan, groundwater accounts for the largest proportion of all water resources for about 40%. This study plans to identify and quantify the nonlinear relationship between precipitation and groundwater recharge, find the non-stationary time-frequency relations between the variations of rainfall and groundwater levels to understand the phase difference of time series. Groundwater level data and over-50-years hourly rainfall records obtained from 20 weather stations in Pingtung Plain, Taiwan has been collected. Extract the space-time pattern by EOF method, which is a decomposition of a signal or data set in terms of orthogonal basis functions determined from the data for both time series and spatial patterns, to identify the important spatial pattern of groundwater recharge and using cross wavelet and wavelet coherence method to identify the relationship between rainfall and groundwater levels. Results show that EOF method can specify the spatial-temporal patterns which represents certain geological characteristics and other mechanisms of groundwater, and the wavelet coherence method can identify general correlation between

Probabilistic Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for the October 2015 Flooding in South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, R.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M.

2017-12-01

The potential for the intensity of extreme rainfall to increase with climate change nonstationarity has emerged as a prevailing issue for the design of engineering infrastructure, underscoring the need to better characterize the statistical assumptions underlying hydrological frequency analysis. The focus of this study is on developing probabilistic rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for the major catchments in South Carolina (SC) where the October 02-05, 2015 floods caused infrastructure damages and several lives to be lost. Continuous to discrete probability distributions including Weibull, the generalized extreme value (GEV), the Generalized Pareto (GP), the Gumbel, the Fréchet, the normal, and the log-normal functions were fitted to the short duration (i.e., 24-hr) intense rainfall. Analysis suggests that the GEV probability distribution provided the most adequate fit to rainfall records. Rainfall frequency analysis indicated return periods above 500 years for urban drainage systems with a maximum return level of approximately 2,744 years, whereas rainfall magnitude was much lower in rural catchments. Further, the return levels (i.e., 2, 20, 50,100, 500, and 1000 years) computed by Monte Carlo method were consistently higher than the NOAA design IDF curves. Given the potential increase in the magnitude of intense rainfall, current IDF curves can substantially underestimate the frequency of extremes, indicating the susceptibility of the storm drainage and flood control structures in SC that were designed under assumptions of a stationary climate.

Saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of slope subjected to rainfall infiltration

OpenAIRE

Gofar Nurly; Rahardjo Harianto

2017-01-01

This paper presents results of saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of typical residual slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration corresponds to 50 years rainfall return period. The slope angles considered were 45° and 70°. The saturated stability analyses were carried out for original and critical ground water level commonly considered by practicing engineer. The analyses were conducted using limit equilibrium method. Unsaturated stability analyses used combination of coupled stress–...

Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

Science.gov (United States)

Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

2017-05-01

Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buishand, T.A.

1977-01-01

Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalie Melissa McLean

2015-01-01

Full Text Available End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS regional climate model (RCM under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD and extreme rainfall (R95P than consecutive dry days (CDD, wet days (R10, and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5. Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana. Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean.

Investigation of Rainfall-Runoff Processes and Soil Moisture Dynamics in Grassland Plots under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nana Zhao

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The characteristics of rainfall-runoff are important aspects of hydrological processes. In this study, rainfall-runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics at different soil depths and slope positions of grassland with two different row spacings (5 cm and 10 cm, respectively, referred to as R5 and R10 were analyzed, by means of a solution of rainfall simulation experiments. Bare land was also considered as a comparison. The results showed that the mechanism of runoff generation was mainly excess infiltration overland flow. The surface runoff amount of R5 plot was greater than that of R10, while the interflow amount of R10 was larger than that of R5 plot, although the differences of the subsurface runoff processes between plots R5 and R10 were little. The effects of rainfall intensity on the surface runoff were significant, but not obvious on the interflow and recession curve, which can be described as a simple exponential equation, with a fitting degree of up to 0.854–0.996. The response of soil moisture to rainfall and evapotranspiration was mainly in the 0–20 cm layer, and the response at the 40 cm layer to rainfall was slower and generally occurred after the rainfall stopped. The upper slope generally responded fastest to rainfall, and the foot of the slope was the slowest. The results presented here could provide insights into understanding the surface and subsurface runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics for grasslands in semi-arid regions.

Responses of the sustainable yield of groundwater to annual rainfall and pumping patterns in the Baotou Plain, North China

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Z.; LONG, Y., Sr.; Wei, Y.; Guo, Z.

2017-12-01

Serious water deficits and deteriorating environmental quality are threatening the sustainable socio-economic development and the protection of the ecology and the environment in North China, especially in Baotou City. There is a common misconception that groundwater extraction can be sustainable if the pumping rate does not exceed the total natural recharge in a groundwater basin. The truth is that the natural recharge is mainly affected by the rainfall and that groundwater withdrawal determines the sustainable yield of the aquifer flow system. The concept of the sustainable yield is defined as the allowance pumping patterns and rates that avoid adverse impacts on the groundwater system. The sustainable yield introduced in this paper is a useful baseline for groundwater management under all rainfall conditions and given pumping scenarios. A dynamic alternative to the groundwater sustainable yield for a given pumping pattern and rate should consider the responses of the recharge, discharge, and evapotranspiration to the groundwater level fluctuation and to different natural rainfall conditions. In this study, methods for determining the sustainable yield through time series data of groundwater recharge, discharge, extraction, and precipitation in an aquifer are introduced. A numerical simulation tool was used to assess and quantify the dynamic changes in groundwater recharge and discharge under excessive pumping patterns and rates and to estimate the sustainable yield of groundwater flow based on natural rainfall conditions and specific groundwater development scenarios during the period of 2007 to 2014. The results of this study indicate that the multi-year sustainable yield only accounts for about one-half of the average annual recharge. The future sustainable yield for the current pumping scenarios affected by rainfall conditions are evaluated quantitatively to obtain long-term groundwater development strategies. The simulation results show that sufficient

Rainfall Stochastic models

Science.gov (United States)

Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.

2012-04-01

This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

The relationship of lightning activity and short-duation rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.

2017-12-01

The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time

Rainfall runoff and erosion in Napa Valley vineyards: effects of slope, cover and surface roughness

Science.gov (United States)

Battany, M. C.; Grismer, M. E.

2000-05-01

The effects of slope, cover and surface roughness on rainfall runoff, infiltration and erosion were determined at two sites on a hillside vineyard in Napa County, California, using a portable rainfall simulator. Rainfall simulation experiments were carried out at two sites, with five replications of three slope treatments (5%, 10% and 15%) in a randomized block design at each site (0%bsol;64 m2 plots). Prior to initiation of the rainfall simulations, detailed assessments, not considered in previous vineyard studies, of soil slope, cover and surface roughness were conducted. Significant correlations (at the 95% confidence level) between the physical characteristics of slope, cover and surface roughness, with total infiltration, runoff, sediment discharge and average sediment concentration were obtained. The extent of soil cracking, a physical characteristic not directly measured, also affected analysis of the rainfall-runoff-erosion process. Average cumulative runoff and cumulative sediment discharge from site A was 87% and 242% greater, respectively, than at site B. This difference was linked to the greater cover, extent of soil cracking and bulk density at site B than at site A. The extent of soil cover was the dominant factor limiting soil loss when soil cracking was not present. Field slopes within the range of 4-16%, although a statistically significant factor affecting soil losses, had only a minor impact on the amount of soil loss. The Horton infiltration equation fit field data better than the modified Philip's equation. Owing to the variability in the treatment parameters affecting the rainfall-runoff-erosion process, use of ANOVA methods were found to be inappropriate; multiple-factor regression analysis was more useful for identifying significant parameters. Overall, we obtained similar values for soil erosion parameters as those obtained from vineyard erosion studies in Europe. In addition, it appears that results from the small plot studies may be

Analyses of the temporal and spatial structures of heavy rainfall from a catalog of high-resolution radar rainfall fields

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn

2014-01-01

that relate to size, structure and evolution of heavy rainfall. Extreme rainfall is also linked with severe weather (tornados, large hail and damaging wind). The diurnal cycle of rainfall for heavy rain days is characterized by an early peak in the largest rainfall rates, an afternoon-evening peak in rain...

Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng

2016-04-01

Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance

Quantifying rainfall-derived inflow and infiltration in sanitary sewer systems based on conductivity monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Mingkai; Liu, Yanchen; Cheng, Xun; Zhu, David Z.; Shi, Hanchang; Yuan, Zhiguo

2018-03-01

Quantifying rainfall-derived inflow and infiltration (RDII) in a sanitary sewer is difficult when RDII and overflow occur simultaneously. This study proposes a novel conductivity-based method for estimating RDII. The method separately decomposes rainfall-derived inflow (RDI) and rainfall-induced infiltration (RII) on the basis of conductivity data. Fast Fourier transform was adopted to analyze variations in the flow and water quality during dry weather. Nonlinear curve fitting based on the least squares algorithm was used to optimize parameters in the proposed RDII model. The method was successfully applied to real-life case studies, in which inflow and infiltration were successfully estimated for three typical rainfall events with total rainfall volumes of 6.25 mm (light), 28.15 mm (medium), and 178 mm (heavy). Uncertainties of model parameters were estimated using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method and were found to be acceptable. Compared with traditional flow-based methods, the proposed approach exhibits distinct advantages in estimating RDII and overflow, particularly when the two processes happen simultaneously.

A soil moisture-rainfall feedback mechanism. 1. Theory and observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eltahir, E.A.B.

1998-01-01

This paper presents a hypothesis regarding the fundamental role of soil moisture conditions in land-atmosphere interactions. We propose that wet soil moisture conditions over any large region should be associated with relatively large boundary layer moist static energy, which favors the occurrence of more rainfall. Since soil moisture conditions themselves reflect past occurrence of rainfall, the proposed hypothesis implies a positive feedback mechanism between soil moisture and rainfall. This mechanism is based on considerations of the energy balance at the land-atmosphere boundary, in contrast to similar mechanisms that were proposed in the past and that were based on the concepts of water balance and precipitation recycling. The control of soil moisture on surface albedo and Bowen ratio is the fundamental basis of the proposed soil moisture-rainfall feedback mechanism. The water content in the upper soil layer affects these two important properties of the land surface such that both variables decrease with any increase in the water content of the top soil layer. The direct effect of soil moisture on surface albedo implies that wet soil moisture conditions enhance net solar radiation. The direct effect of soil moisture on Bowen ratio dictates that wet soil moisture conditions would tend to enhance net terrestrial radiation at the surface through cooling of surface temperature, reduction of upwards emissions of terrestrial radiation, and simultaneous increase in atmospheric water vapor content and downwards flux of terrestrial radiation. Thus, under wet soil moisture conditions, both components of net radiation are enhanced, resulting in a larger total flux of heat from the surface into the boundary layer. This total flux represents the sum of the corresponding sensible and latent heat fluxes. Simultaneously, cooling of surface temperature should be associated with a smaller sensible heat flux and a smaller depth of the boundary layer

Predictability of the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics variables over South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Phakula, S

2015-09-01

Full Text Available for the homogeneous rainfall regions. Keywords: Retro-active validation, Forecast skill, Area-averaged ROC scores, Reliability diagrams. Introduction Southern Africa is a region of significant rainfall variability on a range of temporal and spacial scales... are evaluated using retro-actively generated hindcasts through canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Retro-active forecast validation is a robust method to assess forecast model performance and give unbiased skill levels (Landman et al., 2001). Two...

Trends in rainfall erosivity in NE Spain at annual, seasonal and daily scales, 1955–2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Beguería

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity refers to the ability of precipitation to erode soil, and depends on characteristics such as its total volume, duration, and intensity and amount of energy released by raindrops. Despite the relevance of rainfall erosivity for soil degradation prevention, very few studies have addressed its spatial and temporal variability. In this study the time variation of rainfall erosivity in the Ebro Valley (NE Spain is assessed for the period 1955–2006. The results show a general decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity, which is explained by a decrease of very intense rainfall events whilst the frequency of moderate and low events increased. This trend is related to prevailing positive conditions of the main atmospheric teleconnection indices affecting the West Mediterranean, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO.

Tree rings and rainfall in the equatorial Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Granato-Souza, Daniela; Stahle, David W.; Barbosa, Ana Carolina; Feng, Song; Torbenson, Max C. A.; de Assis Pereira, Gabriel; Schöngart, Jochen; Barbosa, Joao Paulo; Griffin, Daniel

2018-05-01

The Amazon basin is a global center of hydroclimatic variability and biodiversity, but there are only eight instrumental rainfall stations with continuous records longer than 80 years in the entire basin, an area nearly the size of the coterminous US. The first long moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronology has been developed in the eastern equatorial Amazon of Brazil based on dendrochronological analysis of Cedrela cross sections cut during sustainable logging operations near the Rio Paru. The Rio Paru chronology dates from 1786 to 2016 and is significantly correlated with instrumental precipitation observations from 1939 to 2016. The strength and spatial scale of the precipitation signal vary during the instrumental period, but the Rio Paru chronology has been used to develop a preliminary reconstruction of February to November rainfall totals from 1786 to 2016. The reconstruction is related to SSTs in the Atlantic and especially the tropical Pacific, similar to the stronger pattern of association computed for the instrumental rainfall data from the eastern Amazon. The tree-ring data estimate extended drought and wet episodes in the mid- to late-nineteenth century, providing a valuable, long-term perspective on the moisture changes expected to emerge over the Amazon in the coming century due to deforestation and anthropogenic climate change.

Verification of the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Luitel, Beda; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

2018-01-01

The goal of this study is the evaluation of the skill of five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC)] in forecasting rainfall from North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). Analyses focus on 15 North Atlantic TCs that made landfall along the U.S. coast over the 2007-2012 period. As reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). We consider forecast lead-times up to five days. To benchmark the skill of these models, we consider rainfall estimates from one radar-based (Stage IV) and four satellite-based [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); the CPC MORPHing Technique (CMORPH)] rainfall products. Daily and storm total rainfall fields from each of these remote sensing products are compared to the reference data to obtain information about the range of errors we can expect from "observational data." The skill of the NWP models is quantified: (1) by visual examination of the distribution of the errors in storm total rainfall for the different lead-times, and numerical examination of the first three moments of the error distribution; (2) relative to climatology at the daily scale. Considering these skill metrics, we conclude that the NWP models can provide skillful forecasts of TC rainfall with lead-times up to 48 h, without a consistently best or worst NWP model.

Variability of rainfall over small areas

Science.gov (United States)

Runnels, R. C.

1983-01-01

A preliminary investigation was made to determine estimates of the number of raingauges needed in order to measure the variability of rainfall in time and space over small areas (approximately 40 sq miles). The literature on rainfall variability was examined and the types of empirical relationships used to relate rainfall variations to meteorological and catchment-area characteristics were considered. Relations between the coefficient of variation and areal-mean rainfall and area have been used by several investigators. These parameters seemed reasonable ones to use in any future study of rainfall variations. From a knowledge of an appropriate coefficient of variation (determined by the above-mentioned relations) the number rain gauges needed for the precise determination of areal-mean rainfall may be calculated by statistical estimation theory. The number gauges needed to measure the coefficient of variation over a 40 sq miles area, with varying degrees of error, was found to range from 264 (10% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in) to about 2 (100% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in).

Analysis of rainfall infiltration law in unsaturated soil slope.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

2014-01-01

In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θs - θr), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process.

Stochastic modeling of hourly rainfall times series in Campania (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Giorgio, M.; Greco, R.

2009-04-01

Occurrence of flowslides and floods in small catchments is uneasy to predict, since it is affected by a number of variables, such as mechanical and hydraulic soil properties, slope morphology, vegetation coverage, rainfall spatial and temporal variability. Consequently, landslide risk assessment procedures and early warning systems still rely on simple empirical models based on correlation between recorded rainfall data and observed landslides and/or river discharges. Effectiveness of such systems could be improved by reliable quantitative rainfall prediction, which can allow gaining larger lead-times. Analysis of on-site recorded rainfall height time series represents the most effective approach for a reliable prediction of local temporal evolution of rainfall. Hydrological time series analysis is a widely studied field in hydrology, often carried out by means of autoregressive models, such as AR, ARMA, ARX, ARMAX (e.g. Salas [1992]). Such models gave the best results when applied to the analysis of autocorrelated hydrological time series, like river flow or level time series. Conversely, they are not able to model the behaviour of intermittent time series, like point rainfall height series usually are, especially when recorded with short sampling time intervals. More useful for this issue are the so-called DRIP (Disaggregated Rectangular Intensity Pulse) and NSRP (Neymann-Scott Rectangular Pulse) model [Heneker et al., 2001; Cowpertwait et al., 2002], usually adopted to generate synthetic point rainfall series. In this paper, the DRIP model approach is adopted, in which the sequence of rain storms and dry intervals constituting the structure of rainfall time series is modeled as an alternating renewal process. Final aim of the study is to provide a useful tool to implement an early warning system for hydrogeological risk management. Model calibration has been carried out with hourly rainfall hieght data provided by the rain gauges of Campania Region civil

Relating tree growth to rainfall in Bolivian rain forests: a test for six species using tree ring analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Brienen, Roel J W; Zuidema, Pieter A

2005-11-01

Many tropical regions show one distinct dry season. Often, this seasonality induces cambial dormancy of trees, particularly if these belong to deciduous species. This will often lead to the formation of annual rings. The aim of this study was to determine whether tree species in the Bolivian Amazon region form annual rings and to study the influence of the total amount and seasonal distribution of rainfall on diameter growth. Ring widths were measured on stem discs of a total of 154 trees belonging to six rain forest species. By correlating ring width and monthly rainfall data we proved the annual character of the tree rings for four of our study species. For two other species the annual character was proved by counting rings on trees of known age and by radiocarbon dating. The results of the climate-growth analysis show a positive relationship between tree growth and rainfall in certain periods of the year, indicating that rainfall plays a major role in tree growth. Three species showed a strong relationship with rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season, while one species is most sensitive to the rainfall at the end of the previous growing season. These results clearly demonstrate that tree ring analysis can be successfully applied in the tropics and that it is a promising method for various research disciplines.

Effect of monthly areal rainfall uncertainty on streamflow simulation

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Ndiritu, J. G.; Mkhize, N.

2017-08-01

Areal rainfall is mostly obtained from point rainfall measurements that are sparsely located and several studies have shown that this results in large areal rainfall uncertainties at the daily time step. However, water resources assessment is often carried out a monthly time step and streamflow simulation is usually an essential component of this assessment. This study set out to quantify monthly areal rainfall uncertainties and assess their effect on streamflow simulation. This was achieved by; i) quantifying areal rainfall uncertainties and using these to generate stochastic monthly areal rainfalls, and ii) finding out how the quality of monthly streamflow simulation and streamflow variability change if stochastic areal rainfalls are used instead of historic areal rainfalls. Tests on monthly rainfall uncertainty were carried out using data from two South African catchments while streamflow simulation was confined to one of them. A non-parametric model that had been applied at a daily time step was used for stochastic areal rainfall generation and the Pitman catchment model calibrated using the SCE-UA optimizer was used for streamflow simulation. 100 randomly-initialised calibration-validation runs using 100 stochastic areal rainfalls were compared with 100 runs obtained using the single historic areal rainfall series. By using 4 rain gauges alternately to obtain areal rainfall, the resulting differences in areal rainfall averaged to 20% of the mean monthly areal rainfall and rainfall uncertainty was therefore highly significant. Pitman model simulations obtained coefficient of efficiencies averaging 0.66 and 0.64 in calibration and validation using historic rainfalls while the respective values using stochastic areal rainfalls were 0.59 and 0.57. Average bias was less than 5% in all cases. The streamflow ranges using historic rainfalls averaged to 29% of the mean naturalised flow in calibration and validation and the respective average ranges using stochastic

Probabilistic clustering of rainfall condition for landslide triggering

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Rossi, Mauro; Luciani, Silvia; Cesare Mondini, Alessandro; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Valigi, Daniela; Guzzetti, Fausto

2013-04-01

Landslides are widespread natural and man made phenomena. They are triggered by earthquakes, rapid snow melting, human activities, but mostly by typhoons and intense or prolonged rainfall precipitations. In Italy mostly they are triggered by intense precipitation. The prediction of landslide triggered by rainfall precipitations over large areas is commonly based on the exploitation of empirical models. Empirical landslide rainfall thresholds are used to identify rainfall conditions for the possible landslide initiation. It's common practice to define rainfall thresholds by assuming a power law lower boundary in the rainfall intensity-duration or cumulative rainfall-duration space above which landslide can occur. The boundary is defined considering rainfall conditions associated to landslide phenomena using heuristic approaches, and doesn't consider rainfall events not causing landslides. Here we present a new fully automatic method to identify the probability of landslide occurrence associated to rainfall conditions characterized by measures of intensity or cumulative rainfall and rainfall duration. The method splits the rainfall events of the past in two groups: a group of events causing landslides and its complementary, then estimate their probabilistic distributions. Next, the probabilistic membership of the new event to one of the two clusters is estimated. The method doesn't assume a priori any threshold model, but simple exploits the real empirical distribution of rainfall events. The approach was applied in the Umbria region, Central Italy, where a catalogue of landslide timing, were obtained through the search of chronicles, blogs and other source of information in the period 2002-2012. The approach was tested using rain gauge measures and satellite rainfall estimates (NASA TRMM-v6), allowing in both cases the identification of the rainfall condition triggering landslides in the region. Compared to the other existing threshold definition methods, the prosed

Mixing the Green-Ampt model and Curve Number method as an empirical tool for rainfall excess estimation in small ungauged catchments.

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Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.; Romano, N.

2012-04-01

The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular rainfall-runoff model that is widely used to estimate direct runoff from small and ungauged basins. The SCS-CN is a simple and valuable approach to estimate the total stream-flow volume generated by a storm rainfall, but it was developed to be used with daily rainfall data. To overcome this drawback, we propose to include the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model into a mixed procedure, which is referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method so as to provide estimation of sub-daily incremental rainfall excess. For a given storm, the computed SCS-CN total net rainfall amount is used to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the Green-Ampt model. The proposed procedure was evaluated by analyzing 100 rainfall-runoff events observed in four small catchments of varying size. CN4GA appears an encouraging tool for predicting the net rainfall peak and duration values and has shown, at least for the test cases considered in this study, a better agreement with observed hydrographs than that of the classic SCS-CN method.

Improving rainfall representation for large-scale hydrological modelling of tropical mountain basins

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Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Onof, Christian; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup

2013-04-01

Errors in the forcing data are sometimes overlooked in hydrological studies even when they could be the most important source of uncertainty. The latter particularly holds true in tropical countries with short historical records of rainfall monitoring and remote areas with sparse rain gauge network. In such instances, alternative data such as the remotely sensed precipitation from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite have been used. These provide a good spatial representation of rainfall processes but have been established in the literature to contain volumetric biases that may impair the results of hydrological modelling or worse, are compensated during model calibration. In this study, we analysed precipitation time series from the TMPA (TRMM Multiple Precipitation Algorithm, version 6) against measurements from over 300 gauges in the Andes and Amazon regions of Peru and Ecuador. We found moderately good monthly correlation between the pixel and gauge pairs but a severe underestimation of rainfall amounts and wet days. The discrepancy between the time series pairs is particularly visible over the east side of the Andes and may be attributed to localized and orographic-driven high intensity rainfall, which the satellite product may have limited skills at capturing due to technical and scale issues. This consequently results in a low bias in the simulated streamflow volumes further downstream. In comparison, with the recently released TMPA, version 7, the biases reduce. This work further explores several approaches to merge the two sources of rainfall measurements, each of a different spatial and temporal support, with the objective of improving the representation of rainfall in hydrological simulations. The methods used are (1) mean bias correction (2) data assimilation using Kalman filter Bayesian updating. The results are evaluated by means of (1) a comparison of runoff ratios (the ratio of the total runoff and the total precipitation over an

A flash flood early warning system based on rainfall thresholds and daily soil moisture indexes

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Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe

2015-04-01

Main focus of the paper is to present a flash flood early warning system, developed for Civil Protection Agency for the Sicily Region, for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes. As matter of fact, flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. In this context, some kind of hydrological precursors can be considered to improve the effectiveness of the emergency actions (i.e. early flood warning). Now, it is well known how soil moisture is an important factor in flood formation, because the runoff generation is strongly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture conditions of the catchment. The basic idea of the work here presented is to use soil moisture indexes derived in a continuous form to define a first alert phase in a flash flood forecasting chain and then define a unique rainfall threshold for a given day for the subsequent alarm phases activation, derived as a function of the soil moisture conditions at the beginning of the day. Daily soil moisture indexes, representative of the moisture condition of the catchment, were derived by using a parsimonious and simply to use approach based on the IHACRES model application in a modified form developed by the authors. It is a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method and on the unit hydrograph approach that requires only rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data. It consists of two modules. In the first a non linear loss model, based on the SCS-CN method, was used to transform total rainfall into effective rainfall. In the second, a linear convolution of effective rainfall was performed using a total unit hydrograph with a configuration of

Pb-210 deposition measured in rainfall in Sao Paulo, SP-Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Damatto, Sandra R.; Frujuele, Jonatan V.; Souza, Joseilton M.; Santos, Levi F., E-mail: damatto@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Lab. de Radiometria Ambiental

2013-07-01

Pb-210 (T{sub 1/2} = 22.3 y), a natural radionuclide from U-238 serie can be found in the atmosphere, as a product of {sup 222}Rn decay that emanates from the ground, where its atoms become rapidly fixed to aerosols and return to the earth as dry fallout or are washed out in the rain. This natural radionuclide has been widely used as an atmospheric tracer, to determine the aerosol residence time as well as chronometers in the environment. Pb-210 was measured during a period of two years, 2011 to 2013, in samples of rainfall in all the rainy events that occurred at the Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN) campus (23 deg 33’59.24” S - 46 deg 44’15.63” O at 760 m above sea level) which is located in the city of Sao Paulo, in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Pb-210 concentration was measured in a total of 123 rainy events by beta gross counting in a low background gas flow proportional detector, after radiochemistry procedure. The results obtained were correlated to seasons and rainfall. The concentrations of {sup 210}Pb in rainfall varied from the minimum detectable activity, 4.9 mBq L{sup -1} to 1408± 43 mBq L{sup -1}. The highest concentrations were obtained in the months of winter and the lowest in summer. The monthly depositional flux of {sup 210}Pb, varied from 4.03 Bq m{sup -2} month{sup -1} to 46.4 Bq m{sup -2} month{sup -1}presenting a strong correlation with the amount of precipitation and hence showing seasonal trends. (author)

Influences of Appalachian orography on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability associated with the passage of hurricane Isabel by ensemble simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Oldaker, Guy; Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

Total and antigen-specific Ige levels in umbilical cord blood

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Sybilski AJ

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract The present study was conducted to learn whether the perinatal and environmental factors could influence the total and antigen-specific IgE levels in umbilical cord blood. Retrospective data were obtained from 173 mother-infant pairs. Total and specific (for children's food, wheat/grass and house dust mite-HDM cord blood IgE levels were determined using the immunoassay test. The total cord blood IgE was between 0.0-23.08 IU/ml (mean 0.55 ± 2.07 IU/ml; median 0.16 IU/ml. Total IgE levels were significantly higher in boys compared with girls (OR = 2.2; P = 0.007, and in newborns with complicated pregnancy (OR = 2.7; P = 0.003. A greater number of siblings correlated with increases in the total cord blood IgE (P

Analytical solutions to sampling effects in drop size distribution measurements during stationary rainfall: Estimation of bulk rainfall variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Uijlenhoet, R.; Porrà, J.M.; Sempere Torres, D.; Creutin, J.D.

2006-01-01

A stochastic model of the microstructure of rainfall is used to derive explicit expressions for the magnitude of the sampling fluctuations in rainfall properties estimated from raindrop size measurements in stationary rainfall. The model is a marked point process, in which the points represent the

Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

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Jury, Mark R.

2018-05-01

This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda's rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May-October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ˜3 and 6 years over 1950-2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec-May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May-Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May-Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.

Downscaling of rainfall in Peru using Generalised Linear Models

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Bergin, E.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Wheater, H.

2012-04-01

The assessment of water resources in the Peruvian Andes is particularly important because the Peruvian economy relies heavily on agriculture. Much of the agricultural land is situated near to the coast and relies on large quantities of water for irrigation. The simulation of synthetic rainfall series is thus important to evaluate the reliability of water supplies for current and future scenarios of climate change. In addition to water resources concerns, there is also a need to understand extreme heavy rainfall events, as there was significant flooding in Machu Picchu in 2010. The region exhibits a reduction of rainfall in 1983, associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (SOI). NCEP Reanalysis 1 data was used to provide weather variable data. Correlations were calculated for several weather variables using raingauge data in the Andes. These were used to evaluate teleconnections and provide suggested covariates for the downscaling model. External covariates used in the model include sea level pressure and sea surface temperature over the region of the Humboldt Current. Relative humidity and temperature data over the region are also included. The SOI teleconnection is also used. Covariates are standardised using observations for 1960-1990. The GlimClim downscaling model was used to fit a stochastic daily rainfall model to 13 sites in the Peruvian Andes. Results indicate that the model is able to reproduce rainfall statistics well, despite the large area used. Although the correlation between individual rain gauges is generally quite low, all sites are affected by similar weather patterns. This is an assumption of the GlimClim downscaling model. Climate change scenarios are considered using several GCM outputs for the A1B scenario. GCM data was corrected for bias using 1960-1990 outputs from the 20C3M scenario. Rainfall statistics for current and future scenarios are compared. The region shows an overall decrease in mean rainfall but with an increase in variance.

Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in Slovenia

Science.gov (United States)

Peternel, Tina; Jemec Auflič, Mateja; Rosi, Ascanio; Segoni, Samuele; Komac, Marko; Casagli, Nicola

2017-04-01

Both at the worldwide level and in Slovenia, precipitation and related phenomena represent one of the most important triggering factors for the occurrence of slope mass movements. In the past decade, extreme rainfall events with a very high amount of precipitation occurs in a relatively short rainfall period have become increasingly important and more frequent, that causing numerous undesirable consequences. Intense rainstorms cause flash floods and mostly trigger shallow landslides and soil slips. On the other hand, the damage of long lasting rainstorms depends on the region's adaptation and its capacity to store or infiltrate excessive water from the rain. The amount and, consequently, the intensity of daily precipitation that can cause floods in the eastern part of Slovenia is a rather common event for the north-western part of the country. Likewise, the effect of rainfall is very dependent on the prior soil moisture, periods of full soil saturation and the creation of drifts in groundwater levels due to the slow melting of snow, growing period, etc. Landslides could be identified and to some extent also prevent with better knowledge of the relation between landslides and rainfall. In this paper the definition of rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia is presented. The thresholds have been calculated by collecting approximately 900 landslide data and the relative rainfall amounts, which have been collected from 41 rain gauges all over the country. The thresholds have been defined by the (1) use of an existing procedure, characterized by a high degree of objectiveness and (2) software that was developed for a test site with very different geological and climatic characteristics (Tuscany, central Italy). Firstly, a single national threshold has been defined, later the country was divided into four zones, on the basis of major the river basins and a single threshold has been calculated for each of them. Validation of the calculated

Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Expected Rainfall Changes on Cost-Effective Adaptation of Water Systems to Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.; Weikard, H.P.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

2015-01-01

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

Extreme value analysis of rainfall data for Kalpakkam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, Pramod Kumar; John Arul, A.; Ramkrishnan, M.; Bhuvana, V.

2016-01-01

Flood hazard evaluation is an important safety study for a Nuclear Power Plant. In the present study flood hazard at PFBR site due to rainfall is evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment is daily annual maximum rainfall (24 hrs data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law, and exponential distribution and return period has been estimated. The predicted 100 yrs return period rainfall for Kalpakkam ranges from 240 mm to 365 mm in a day and 1000 yrs return period rainfall ranges from 320 mm to 790 min in a day. To study the stationarity of rainfall data a moving window estimate of the parameters (exponential distribution) have also been performed. (author)

ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL PATTERN AND FLOOD INCIDENCES IN WARRI METROPOLIS, NIGERIA

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R. Olanrewaju

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change has led to changes in the known patterns of rainfall and other climatic variables as well as increase in the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters including floods in different parts of the world; and flood is indeed a global environmental issue that had destroyed lives and property amidst other untold hardships. The study examined rainfall characteristics in Warri metropolis for the past 30 years (1986-2015 vis-à-vis the flood situation in the metropolis; as well as the factors responsible and adaptation strategies to flood in the area. Dividing the study area into four zones after Sada (1977, the researchers collected rainfall data from the archives of Nigerian Meteorological Agency; 268 copies of questionnaire and oral interview were used. The result of the correlation analysis performed showed a negative relationship of -0.156 between rainfall and time (years, this implies that rainfall is decreasing over time. The trend line regression equation Y=243.75-0.4572X, confirms that rainfall in Warri Metropolis is decreasing at the rate of -0.45 per year. However, the p-value 0.412 is greater than 0.05, hence, the trend is not statistically significant at 95% level of confidence. It was discovered that rainfall, absence of drainage and poor urban planning practices (as factor 1 contributed 51.09% while overflowing of rivers, blocked/ poor drainage and untarred roads (as factor 2 contributed 44.10% variance to flood occurrence in the metropolis. Recommendations given included continual monitoring and study of rainfall characteristics and other climatic data and dissemination of such information for planning purposes; construction of integrated drainage system and river rechannelisation, legislation against dumping of refuse on roads and drainages; proper urban planning including implementation of the metropolitan urban drainage master plan. 

Study of acid mine drainage management with evaluating climate and rainfall in East Pit 3 West Banko coal mine

Science.gov (United States)

Rochyani, Neny

2017-11-01

Acid mine drainage is a major problem for the mining environment. The main factor that formed acid mine drainage is the volume of rainfall. Therefore, it is important to know clearly the main climate pattern of rainfall and season on the management of acid mine drainage. This study focuses on the effects of rainfall on acid mine water management. Based on daily rainfall data, monthly and seasonal patterns by using Gumbel approach is known the amount of rainfall that occurred in East Pit 3 West Banko area. The data also obtained the highest maximum daily rainfall on 165 mm/day and the lowest at 76.4 mm/day, where it is known that the rainfall conditions during the period 2007 - 2016 is from November to April so the use of lime is also slightly, While the low rainfall is from May to October and the use of lime will be more and more. Based on calculation of lime requirement for each return period, it can be seen the total of lime and financial requirement for treatment of each return period.

Reduced total serum bilirubin levels are associated with ulcerative colitis.

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Kathleen M Schieffer

Full Text Available Chronic inflammation associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD results in increased oxidative stress that damages the colonic microenvironment. Low levels of serum bilirubin, an endogenous antioxidant, have been associated with increased risk for Crohn's disease (CD. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine whether total serum bilirubin levels are associated with ulcerative colitis (UC. We identified a retrospective case-control population (n = 6,649 from a single tertiary care center, Penn State Hershey Medical Center (PSU and a validation cohort (n = 1,996 from Virginia Commonwealth University Medical Center (VCU. Cases were age- and sex-matched to controls (PSU: CD n = 254, UC n = 187; VCU: CD n = 233, UC n = 124. Total serum bilirubin levels were obtained from de-identified medical records and segregated into quartiles. Logistic regression analysis was performed on each quartile of total serum bilirubin compared to the last quartile (highest bilirubin levels to determine the association of total serum bilirubin with UC. Similar to CD patients, UC patients demonstrated reduced levels of total serum bilirubin compared to controls at PSU and VCU. The lowest quartile of total serum bilirubin was independently associated with UC for the PSU (OR: 1.98 [95% CI: 1.09-3.63] and VCU cohorts (OR: 6.07 [95% CI: 3.01-12.75]. Lower levels of the antioxidant bilirubin may reduce the capability of UC patients to remove reactive oxygen species leading to an increase in intestinal injury. Therapeutics that reduce oxidative stress may be beneficial for these patients.

Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

Science.gov (United States)

Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

2013-01-01

Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

Radar–rain-gauge rainfall estimation for hydrological applications in small catchments

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S. Gabriele

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The accurate evaluation of the precipitation's time–spatial structure is a critical step for rainfall–runoff modelling. Particularly for small catchments, the variability of rainfall can lead to mismatched results. Large errors in flow evaluation may occur during convective storms, responsible for most of the flash floods in small catchments in the Mediterranean area. During such events, we may expect large spatial and temporal variability. Therefore, using rain-gauge measurements only can be insufficient in order to adequately depict extreme rainfall events. In this work, a double-level information approach, based on rain gauges and weather radar measurements, is used to improve areal rainfall estimations for hydrological applications. In order to highlight the effect that precipitation fields with different level of spatial details have on hydrological modelling, two kinds of spatial rainfall fields were computed for precipitation data collected during 2015, considering both rain gauges only and their merging with radar information. The differences produced by these two precipitation fields in the computation of the areal mean rainfall accumulation were evaluated considering 999 basins of the region Calabria, southern Italy. Moreover, both of the two precipitation fields were used to carry out rainfall–runoff simulations at catchment scale for main precipitation events that occurred during 2015 and the differences between the scenarios obtained in the two cases were analysed. A representative case study is presented in detail.

Integrating a Linear Signal Model with Groundwater and Rainfall time-series on the Characteristic Identification of Groundwater Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yu-Wen; Wang, Yetmen; Chang, Liang-Cheng

2017-04-01

Groundwater resources play a vital role on regional supply. To avoid irreversible environmental impact such as land subsidence, the characteristic identification of groundwater system is crucial before sustainable management of groundwater resource. This study proposes a signal process approach to identify the character of groundwater systems based on long-time hydrologic observations include groundwater level and rainfall. The study process contains two steps. First, a linear signal model (LSM) is constructed and calibrated to simulate the variation of underground hydrology based on the time series of groundwater levels and rainfall. The mass balance equation of the proposed LSM contains three major terms contain net rate of horizontal exchange, rate of rainfall recharge and rate of pumpage and four parameters are required to calibrate. Because reliable records of pumpage is rare, the time-variant groundwater amplitudes of daily frequency (P ) calculated by STFT are assumed as linear indicators of puamage instead of pumpage records. Time series obtained from 39 observation wells and 50 rainfall stations in and around the study area, Pintung Plain, are paired for model construction. Second, the well-calibrated parameters of the linear signal model can be used to interpret the characteristic of groundwater system. For example, the rainfall recharge coefficient (γ) means the transform ratio between rainfall intention and groundwater level raise. The area around the observation well with higher γ means that the saturated zone here is easily affected by rainfall events and the material of unsaturated zone might be gravel or coarse sand with high infiltration ratio. Considering the spatial distribution of γ, the values of γ decrease from the upstream to the downstream of major rivers and also are correlated to the spatial distribution of grain size of surface soil. Via the time-series of groundwater levels and rainfall, the well-calibrated parameters of LSM have

A Semi Risk-Based Approach for Managing Urban Drainage Systems under Extreme Rainfall

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Carlos Salinas-Rodriguez

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Conventional design standards for urban drainage systems are not set to deal with extreme rainfall events. As these events are becoming more frequent, there is room for proposing new planning approaches and standards that are flexible enough to cope with a wide range of rainfall events. In this paper, a semi risk-based approach is presented as a simple and practical way for the analysis and management of rainfall flooding at the precinct scale. This approach uses various rainfall events as input parameters for the analysis of the flood hazard and impacts, and categorises the flood risk in different levels, ranging from very low to very high risk. When visualised on a map, the insight into the risk levels across the precinct will enable engineers and spatial planners to identify and prioritise interventions to manage the flood risk. The approach is demonstrated for a sewer district in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, using a one-dimensional (1D/two-dimensional (2D flood model. The risk level of this area is classified as being predominantly very low or low, with a couple of locations with high and very high risk. For these locations interventions, such as disconnection and lowering street profiles, have been proposed and analysed with the 1D/2D flood model. The interventions were shown to be effective in reducing the risk levels from very high/high risk to medium/low risk.

Optimization of typical diffuse herbicide pollution control by soil amendment configurations under four levels of rainfall intensities.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, Wei; Huang, Weijia; Wei, Peng; Hao, Fanghua; Yu, Yongyong

2016-06-15

Herbicides are a main source of agricultural diffuse pollution due to their wide application in tillage practices. The aim of this study is to optimize the control efficiency of the herbicide atrazine with the aid of modified soil amendments. The soil amendments were composed of a combination of biochar and gravel. The biochar was created from corn straw with a catalytic pyrolysis of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate. The leaching experiments under four rainfall conditions were measured for the following designs: raw soil, soil amended with gravel, biochar individually and together with gravel. The control efficiency of each design was also identified. With the designed equipment, the atrazine content in the contaminant load layer, gravel substrate layer, biochar amendment layer and soil layer was measured under four types of rainfall intensities (1.25 mm/h, 2.50 mm/h, 5.00 mm/h and 10.00 mm/h). Furthermore, the vertical distribution of atrazine in the soil sections was also monitored. The results showed that the herbicide leaching load increased under the highest rainfall intensity in all designs. The soil with the combination of gravel and biochar provided the highest control efficiency of 87.85% on atrazine when the additional proportion of biochar was 3.0%. The performance assessment under the four kinds of rainfall intensity conditions provided the guideline for the soil amendment configuration. The combination of gravel and biochar is recommended as an efficient method for controlling diffuse herbicide pollution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of serum leptin, glucose, total cholesterol and total protein levels in fertile and repeat breeder cows

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saime Guzel

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In the present study we measured serum glucose, leptin, total cholesterol and total protein concentrations in repeat breeder cows and compared them with fertile cows. For this aim, 20 repeat breeder cows and 20 fertile cows were used as material. Repeat breeder cows were found to have lower levels of leptin and glucose as compared with fertile ones. No significant differences in total cholesterol and total protein levels were observed between the two groups. No significant correlation of leptin with glucose, total cholesterol and total protein was observed in fertile and repeat breeder cows. Low concentrations of glucose and leptin can have some effects on reproductive problems as repeat breeder and help to understand potential mechanisms impairing fertility in repeat breeder cows.

Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent

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Kang, Suchul; Im, Eun-Soon; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-03-01

In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12 km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs.

Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vrieling, A.; Sterk, G.; Jong, S.M. de

2010-01-01

Rainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall distribution and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Rainfall and evapotranspiration are the two major climatic factors affecting agricultural production. This study examined the extent and nature of rainfall variability from measured data while estimation of evapotranspiration was made from recorded weather data. Analysis of rainfall variability is made by the rainfall anomaly ...

Protection from wintertime rainfall reduces nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions during the decomposition of poultry and horse manure-based amendments.

Science.gov (United States)

Maltais-Landry, Gabriel; Neufeld, Katarina; Poon, David; Grant, Nicholas; Nesic, Zoran; Smukler, Sean

2018-04-01

Manure-based soil amendments (herein "amendments") are important fertility sources, but differences among amendment types and management can significantly affect their nutrient value and environmental impacts. A 6-month in situ decomposition experiment was conducted to determine how protection from wintertime rainfall affected nutrient losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in poultry (broiler chicken and turkey) and horse amendments. Changes in total nutrient concentration were measured every 3 months, changes in ammonium (NH 4 + ) and nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentrations every month, and GHG emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) every 7-14 days. Poultry amendments maintained higher nutrient concentrations (except for K), higher emissions of CO 2 and N 2 O, and lower CH 4 emissions than horse amendments. Exposing amendments to rainfall increased total N and NH 4 + losses in poultry amendments, P losses in turkey and horse amendments, and K losses and cumulative N 2 O emissions for all amendments. However, it did not affect CO 2 or CH 4 emissions. Overall, rainfall exposure would decrease total N inputs by 37% (horse), 59% (broiler chicken), or 74% (turkey) for a given application rate (wet weight basis) after 6 months of decomposition, with similar losses for NH 4 + (69-96%), P (41-73%), and K (91-97%). This study confirms the benefits of facilities protected from rainfall to reduce nutrient losses and GHG emissions during amendment decomposition. The impact of rainfall protection on nutrient losses and GHG emissions was monitored during the decomposition of broiler chicken, turkey, and horse manure-based soil amendments. Amendments exposed to rainfall had large ammonium and potassium losses, resulting in a 37-74% decrease in N inputs when compared with amendments protected from rainfall. Nitrous oxide emissions were also higher with rainfall exposure, although it had no effect on carbon dioxide and methane emissions

Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

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Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

2016-02-01

Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

Relations between Rainfall and Postfire Debris-Flow- and Flood-Event Magnitudes for Emergency-Response Planning, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Cannon, Susan; Collins, Larry; Boldt, Eric; Staley, Dennis

2010-05-01

Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies are often faced with making evacuation decisions and deploying resources both well in advance of each coming winter storm and during storm events themselves. We here provide information critical to this process for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for the San Gabriel Mountains twice a day, at approximately 4 am and 4 pm, along with unscheduled updates when conditions change. QPFs provide estimates of rainfall totals in 3-hour increments for the first 12-hour period and in 6-hour increments for the second. Estimates of one-hour rainfall intensities can be provided in the forecast narrative, along with probable peak intensities and timing, although with less confidence than rainfall totals. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storm events from recently burned areas in southern California was used to develop a system for classifying the magnitude of postfire hydrologic events. The three-class system is based on differences between the reported volume of individual debris flows, the consequences of these events in an urban setting, and the spatial extent of the response to the triggering storm. Threshold rainfall conditions that may lead to debris flow and floods of different magnitude classes are defined by integrating local rainfall data with debris-flow- and flood-event magnitude information. The within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) and durations (D) below which Magnitude I events are expected, and above which Magnitude II events may occur, are defined by A=0.4D0.55. The function A=0.6D0.50 defines the within-storm rainfall accumulations and durations above which a Magnitude III event will occur in response to a regional-scale storm, and a Magnitude II event will occur if the storm affects only a few drainage basins. The function A=1.1D0

Evaluating the Effect of Rainfall Infiltration on the Slope Stability of T16 tower of Taipei Mao-kong Gondola by Numerical Methods

Science.gov (United States)

RUNG, J.

2013-12-01

In this study, a series of rainfall-stability analyses were performed to simulate the failure mechanism and the function of remediation works of the down slope of T-16 tower pier, Mao-Kong gondola (or T-16 Slope) at the hillside of Taipei City using two-dimensional finite element method. The failure mechanism of T-16 Slope was simulated using the rainfall hyetograph of Jang-Mi typhoon in 2008 based on the field investigation data, monitoring data, soil/rock mechanical testing data and detail design plots of remediation works. Eventually, the numerical procedures and various input parameters in the analysis were verified by comparing the numerical results with the field observations. In addition, 48 hrs design rainfalls corresponding to 5, 10, 25 and 50 years return periods were prepared using the 20 years rainfall data of Mu-Zha rainfall observation station, Central Weather Bureau for the rainfall-stability analyses of T-16 Slope to inspect the effect of the compound stabilization works on the overall stability of the slope. At T-16 Slope, without considering the longitudinal and transverse drainages on the ground surface, there totally 4 types of stabilization works were installed to stabilize the slope. From the slope top to the slope toe, the stabilization works of T-16 Slope consists of RC-retaining wall with micro-pile foundation at the up-segment, earth anchor at the up-middle-segment, soil nailing at the middle-segment and retaining pile at the down-segment of the slope. The effect of each individual stabilization work on the slope stability under rainfall condition was examined and evaluated by raising field groundwater level.

Validity and extension of the SCS-CN method for computing infiltration and rainfall-excess rates

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Surendra Kumar; Singh, Vijay P.

2004-12-01

A criterion is developed for determining the validity of the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method. According to this criterion, the existing SCS-CN method is found to be applicable when the potential maximum retention, S, is less than or equal to twice the total rainfall amount. The criterion is tested using published data of two watersheds. Separating the steady infiltration from capillary infiltration, the method is extended for predicting infiltration and rainfall-excess rates. The extended SCS-CN method is tested using 55 sets of laboratory infiltration data on soils varying from Plainfield sand to Yolo light clay, and the computed and observed infiltration and rainfall-excess rates are found to be in good agreement.

Rainfall declines over Queensland from 1951-2007 and links to the Subtropical Ridge and the SAM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cottrill, D A; Ribbe, J

2010-01-01

Much of southern and eastern Australia including Queensland have experienced rainfall declines over recent decades affecting agricultural production and accelerating water infrastructure development. Rainfall declines from southern Australia have now been directly related to changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the subtropical ridge. In southern and coastal Queensland, the rainfall declines have occurred mostly in the austral summer and autumn. Observations from this region reveal the rainfall decline is correlated to an increase in the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at many stations. The largest increases in MSLP are over southeast Queensland and coastal regions, where some of the largest rainfall declines occur. This study indicates the subtropical ridge as one of the main factors in the rainfall decline over this region. SAM is also likely to be important, although its seasonal influence, apart from winter, is harder to determine.

Evolution of rainfall in the Sahel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diallo, M.A.

1995-09-01

In this note, a number of main meteorological stations has been chosen to analyse the rainfall during the last 30 years in the Sahel (1961 to 1990). Reliable climatological data have been used for this study. The concerned area is limited by the 200 mm isohyet in the north and 600 mm isohyet in the south in the Sahel countries (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad). The evolution of rainfall has pointed out some similar and significant aspects for all stations studied. Established criteria have been used to characterize the annual rainfall and to determine the years with good rainfall and years of drought in the Sahel. (author). 6 refs, 3 figs

Regionalization of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Stochastic Rainfall Model

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Dongkyun Kim

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Parameters of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP stochastic rainfall simulation model were regionalized across the contiguous United States. Three thousand four hundred forty-four National Climate Data Center (NCDC rain gauges were used to obtain spatial and seasonal patterns of the model parameters. The MBLRP model was calibrated to minimize the discrepancy between the precipitation depth statistics between the observed and MBLRP-generated precipitation time series. These statistics included the mean, variance, probability of zero rainfall and autocorrelation at 1-, 3-, 12- and 24-hour accumulation intervals. The Ordinary Kriging interpolation technique was used to generate maps of the six MBLRP model parameters for each of the 12 months of the year. All parameters had clear to discernible regional tendencies; except for one related to rain cell duration distribution. Parameter seasonality was not obvious and it was more apparent in some locations than in others, depending on the seasonality of the rainfall statistics. Cross-validation was used to assess the validity of the parameter maps. The results indicate that the suggested maps reproduce well the observed rainfall statistics for different accumulation intervals, except for the lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. The boundaries of the expected residual, with 95% confidence, between the observed rainfall statistics and the simulated rainfall statistics based on the map parameters were approximately ±0.064 mm hr-1, ±1.63 mm2 hr-2, ±0.16, and ±0.030 for the mean, variance, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of zero rainfall at hourly accumulation levels, respectively. The estimated parameter values were also used to estimate the storm and rain cell characteristics.

Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount

Science.gov (United States)

Lucero, Omar A.; Rozas, Daniel

Climate variability in annual rainfall occurs because the aggregation of daily rainfall changes. A topic open to debate is whether that change takes place because rainfall becomes more intense, or because it rains more often, or a combination of both. The answer to this question is of interest for water resources planning, hydrometeorological design, and agricultural management. Change in the number of rainy days can cause major disruptions in hydrological and ecological systems, with important economic and social effects. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily rainfall aggregation in ongoing climate variability provide a reference to evaluate the capability of GCM to simulate changes in the hydrologic cycle. In this research, we analyze changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall producing a climate positive trend in annual rainfall in central Argentina, in the southern middle-latitudes. This state-of-the-art agricultural region has a semiarid climate with dry and wet seasons. Weather effects in the region influence world-market prices of several crops. Results indicate that the strong positive trend in seasonal and annual rainfall amount is produced by an increase in number of rainy days. This increase takes place in the 3-month periods January-March (summer) and April-June (autumn). These are also the 3-month periods showing a positive trend in the mean of annual rainfall. The mean of the distribution of annual number of rainy day (ANRD) increased in 50% in a 36-year span (starting at 44 days/year). No statistically significant indications on time changes in the probability distribution of daily rainfall amount were found. Non-periodic fluctuations in the time series of annual rainfall were analyzed using an integral wavelet transform. Fluctuations with a time scale of about 10 and 20 years construct the trend in annual rainfall amount. These types of non-periodic fluctuations have been observed in other regions of the world. This suggests that results of

Determining rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayorga Marquez, Ruth

2003-01-01

Considering that rainfall is the natural event that more often triggers landslides, it is important to study the relationship between this phenomenon and the occurrence of earth mass movements, by determining rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in different zones of Colombia. The research presents a methodology that allows proposing rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in Colombia, by means of a relationship between the accumulated rain in the soil (antecedent rainfall) and the rain that falls the day of the landslide occurrence (event rainfall)

The development rainfall forecasting using kalman filter

Science.gov (United States)

Zulfi, Mohammad; Hasan, Moh.; Dwidja Purnomo, Kosala

2018-04-01

Rainfall forecasting is very interesting for agricultural planing. Rainfall information is useful to make decisions about the plan planting certain commodities. In this studies, the rainfall forecasting by ARIMA and Kalman Filter method. Kalman Filter method is used to declare a time series model of which is shown in the form of linear state space to determine the future forecast. This method used a recursive solution to minimize error. The rainfall data in this research clustered by K-means clustering. Implementation of Kalman Filter method is for modelling and forecasting rainfall in each cluster. We used ARIMA (p,d,q) to construct a state space for KalmanFilter model. So, we have four group of the data and one model in each group. In conclusions, Kalman Filter method is better than ARIMA model for rainfall forecasting in each group. It can be showed from error of Kalman Filter method that smaller than error of ARIMA model.

[Output characteristics of rainfall runoff phosphorus pollution from a typical small watershed in Yimeng mountainous area].

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Zhen-wei; Liu, Qian-jin; Jing, Guang-hua

2012-08-01

Relationships between phosphorus pollutant concentrations and precipitation-runoff were analyzed by monitoring pollutant losses at outlets of the Menglianggu watershed in 2010. A typical small watershed was selected to examine the runoff and quality parameters such as total phosphorus (TP), particle phosphorus (PP), dissolve phosphorus (DP) and dissolve inorganic phosphorus (DIP) in rainfall-runoff of 10 rainfall events. Precipitation was above 2 mm for all the 10 rainfall events. The results showed that the peak of phosphorus concentrations occurred before the peak of water flows, whereas change processes of the phosphorus fluxes were consistent with that of the water flows and the phosphorus flux also have a strong linear relationship with the water flows. The minimums of the phosphorus concentrations in every 10 natural rainfall events have small differences with each other, but the maximum and EMCs of the phosphorus concentrations have significant differences with each rainfall event. This was mainly influenced by the precipitation, maximum rainfall intensity and mean rainfall intensity (EMCs) and was less influenced by rainfall duration. DP and TP were mainly composed of DIP and PP, respectively. There were no significant correlations between DIP/DP dynamic changes and rainfall characteristics, whereas significant correlations between PP/TP dynamic changes and maximum rainfall intensity were detected. The production of DIP, DP, AND TP were mainly influenced by the direct runoff (DR) and base flow (BF). The EMCs of DIP, DP, TP and the variations of DIP/DP were all found to have significant polynomial relationships with DR/TR., but the dynamic changes of PP/ TP and the EMCS of PP were less influenced by the DR/TR.

Comparison between Pludix and impact/optical disdrometers during rainfall measurement campaigns

Science.gov (United States)

Caracciolo, Clelia; Prodi, Franco; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2006-11-01

The performances of two couples of disdrometers based on different measuring principles are compared: a classical Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer and a recently developed device, called the Pludix tested in Ferrara, Italy, and Pludix and the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) tested in Cabauw, The Netherlands. First, the measuring principles of the different instruments are presented and compared. Secondly, the performances of the two pairs of disdrometers are analysed by comparing their rain amounts with nearby tipping bucket rain gauges and the inferred drop size distributions. The most important rainfall integral parameters (e.g. rain rate and radar reflectivity) and drop size distribution parameters are also analysed and compared. The data set for Ferrara comprises 13 rainfall events, with a total of 20 mm of rainfall and a maximum rain rate of 4 mm h - 1 . The data set for Cabauw consists of 9 events, with 25-50 mm of rainfall and a maximum rain rate of 20-40 mm h - 1 . The Pludix tends to underestimate slightly the bulk rainfall variables in less intense events, whereas it tends to overestimate with respect to the other instruments in heavier events. The correspondence of the inferred drop size distributions with those measured by the other disdrometers is reasonable, particularly with the Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer. Considering that the Pludix is still in a calibration and testing phase, the reported results are encouraging. A new signal inversion algorithm, which will allow the detection of rain drops throughout the entire diameter interval between 0.3 and 7.0 mm, is under development.

The study of using earth tide response of groundwater level and rainfall recharge to identify groundwater aquifer

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, W. J.; Hsu, C. H.; Chang, L. C.; Chiang, C. J.; Wang, Y. S.; Lu, W. C.

2017-12-01

Hydrogeological framework is the most important basis for groundwater analysis and simulation. Conventionally, the core drill is a most commonly adopted skill to acquire the core's data with the help of other research methods to artificially determine the result. Now, with the established groundwater station network, there are a lot of groundwater level information available. Groundwater level is an integrated presentation of the hydrogeological framework and the external pumping and recharge system. Therefore, how to identify the hydrogeological framework from a large number of groundwater level data is an important subject. In this study, the frequency analysis method and rainfall recharge mechanism were used to identify the aquifer where the groundwater level's response frequency and amplitude react to the earth tide. As the earth tide change originates from the gravity caused by the paths of sun and moon, it leads to soil stress and strain changes, which further affects the groundwater level. The scale of groundwater level's change varies with the influence of aquifer pressure systems such as confined or unconfined aquifers. This method has been applied to the identification of aquifers in the Cho-Shui River Alluvial Fan. The results of the identification are compared to the records of core drill and they both are quite consistent. It is shown that the identification methods developed in this study can considerably contribute to the identification of hydrogeological framework.

The influence of the net rainfall mixed Curve Number – Green Ampt procedure in flood hazard mapping: a case study in Central Italy

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Andrea Petroselli

2013-09-01

Full Text Available A net rainfall estimation procedure, referred to as Curve-Number For Green-Ampt (CN4GA, combining the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN method and the Green and Ampt (GA infiltration equation was recently developed, aiming to distribute at subdaily time resolution the information provided by the SCS-CN method. The initial abstraction and the total volume of rainfall provided by the SCS-CN method are used to identify the ponding time and to quantify the hydraulic conductivity parameter of the GA equation, whereas the GA infiltration model distributes the total volume of the rainfall excess provided by the SCS-CN method. In this study we evaluate the proposed procedure with reference to a real case comparing the flood mapping obtained applying the event-based approach for two different net rainfall scenarios: the proposed CN4GA and the common SCS-CN. Results underline that the net rainfall estimation step can affect the final flood mapping result.

Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan

2010-05-01

Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-01-01

Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

A comparative survey of the impacts of extreme rainfall in two international case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Spekkers, Matthieu; Rözer, Viktor; Thieken, Annegret; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Kreibich, Heidi

2017-08-01

Flooding is assessed as the most important natural hazard in Europe, causing thousands of deaths, affecting millions of people and accounting for large economic losses in the past decade. Little is known about the damage processes associated with extreme rainfall in cities, due to a lack of accurate, comparable and consistent damage data. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of extreme rainfall on residential buildings and how affected households coped with these impacts in terms of precautionary and emergency actions. Analyses are based on a unique dataset of damage characteristics and a wide range of potential damage explaining variables at the household level, collected through computer-aided telephone interviews (CATI) and an online survey. Exploratory data analyses based on a total of 859 completed questionnaires in the cities of Münster (Germany) and Amsterdam (the Netherlands) revealed that the uptake of emergency measures is related to characteristics of the hazardous event. In case of high water levels, more efforts are made to reduce damage, while emergency response that aims to prevent damage is less likely to be effective. The difference in magnitude of the events in Münster and Amsterdam, in terms of rainfall intensity and water depth, is probably also the most important cause for the differences between the cities in terms of the suffered financial losses. Factors that significantly contributed to damage in at least one of the case studies are water contamination, the presence of a basement in the building and people's awareness of the upcoming event. Moreover, this study confirms conclusions by previous studies that people's experience with damaging events positively correlates with precautionary behaviour. For improving future damage data acquisition, we recommend the inclusion of cell phones in a CATI survey to avoid biased sampling towards certain age groups.

Effects of urban grass coverage on rainfall-induced runoff in Xi'an loess region in China

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Jing Li

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In this study, laboratory rainfall simulation experiments were conducted to investigate the regulatory effects of grass coverage on rainfall-runoff processes. A total of 80 grass blocks planted with well-grown manilagrass, together with their root systems, were sampled from an eastern suburban area of Xi'an City in the northwest arid area of China and sent to a laboratory for rainfall simulation experiments. The runoff and infiltration processes of a slope with different grass coverage ratios and vegetation patterns were analyzed. The results show that the runoff coefficient decreases with the increase of the grass coverage ratio, and the influence of grass coverage on the reduction of runoff shows a high degree of spatial variation. At a constant grass coverage ratio, as the area of grass coverage moves downward, the runoff coefficient, total runoff, and flood peak discharge gradually decrease, and the flood peak occurs later. With the increase of the grass coverage ratio, the flood peak discharge gradually decreases, and the flood peak occurs later as well. In conclusion, a high grass coverage ratio with the area of grass coverage located at the lower part of the slope will lead to satisfactory regulatory effects on rainfall-induced runoff.

Influences of rainfall variables and antecedent discharge on urban effluent concentrations and loads in wet weather.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zuxin; Xiong, Lijun; Li, Huaizheng; Liao, Zhengliang; Yin, Hailong; Wu, Jun; Xu, Jin; Chen, Hao

2017-04-01

For storm drainages inappropriately connected with sewage, wet weather discharge is a major factor that adversely affects receiving waters. A study of the wet weather influences of rainfall-discharge variables on storm drainages connected with sewage was conducted in the downtown Shanghai area (374 ha). Two indicators, event mean concentration (EMC) and event pollutant load per unit area (EPL), were used to describe the pollution discharge during 20 rain events. The study showed that the total rainfall and discharge volume were important factors that affect the EMCs and EPLs of the chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus, and especially those of NH 4 + -N. The pollutant concentrations at the beginning of the discharge and the discharge period were also major factors that influence the EMCs of these three pollutants. Regression relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and discharge volume/ EPLs (R 2 = 0.824-0.981) were stronger than the relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and EMCs. These regression equations can be considered reliable in the system, with a relative validation error of less than ±10% for the discharge volume, and less than ±20% for the EPLs. The results presented in this paper provide guidance for effectively controlling pollution in similar storm drainages.

Rainfall erosivity and rainfall return period in the experimental watershed of Aracruz, in the coastal plain of Espirito Santo, Brazil Erosividade da chuva e tempo de retorno na bacia experimental da Aracruz, região dos tabuleiros costeiros brasileiros

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sérgio Gualberto Martins

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Knowledge on the factors influencing water erosion is fundamental for the choice of the best land use practices. Rainfall, expressed by rainfall erosivity, is one of the most important factors of water erosion. The objective of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity and the return period of rainfall in the Coastal Plains region, near Aracruz, a town in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, based on available data. Rainfall erosivity was calculated based on historic rainfall data, collected from January 1998 to July 2004 at 5 min intervals, by automatic weather stations of the Aracruz Cellulose S.A company. A linear regression with individual rainfall and erosivity data was fit to obtain an equation that allowed data extrapolation to calculate individual erosivity for a 30-year period. Based on this data the annual average rainfall erosivity in Aracruz was 8,536 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Of the total annual rainfall erosivity 85 % was observed in the most critical period October to March. Annual erosive rains accounted for 38 % of the events causing erosion, although the runoff volume represented 88 % of the total. The annual average rainfall erosivity return period was estimated to be 3.4 years.O conhecimento dos fatores que influenciam a erosão hídrica é de fundamental importância no planejamento do uso do solo. Dos fatores que alteram a erosão, a precipitação pluvial, expressa pela erosividade da chuva, é um dos mais importantes. Assim, o objetivo deste estudo foi determinar a erosividade e o tempo de retorno para a região dos Tabuleiros Costeiros, no município de Aracruz, ES. Para o cálculo da erosividade, foram utilizados dados pluviométricos de janeiro de 1998 a julho de 2004, obtidos em estações climatológicas automatizadas, localizadas em área experimental da Aracruz Celulose AS, que, para este estudo, geraram dados de 5 em 5 min. A análise de regressão linear entre precipitação pluvial e erosidade para esse per

The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

2013-12-01

Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

First results from comparison of rainfall estimations by GPM IMERG with rainfall measurements from the WegenerNet high density network

Science.gov (United States)

Oo, Sungmin; Foelsche, Ulrich; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Fuchsberger, Jürgen

2016-04-01

The research level products of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG "Final" run datasets) were compared with rainfall measurements from the WegenerNet high density network as part of ground validation (GV) projects of GPM missions. The WegenerNet network comprises 151 ground level weather stations in an area of 15 km × 20 km in south-eastern Austria (Feldbach region, ˜46.93° N, ˜15.90° E) designed to serve as a long-term monitoring and validation facility for weather and climate research and applications. While the IMERG provides rainfall estimations every half hour at 0.1° resolution, the WegenerNet network measures rainfall every 5 minutes at around 2 km2 resolution and produces 200 m × 200 m gridded datasets. The study was conducted on the domain of the WegenerNet network; eight IMERG grids are overlapped with the network, two of which are entirely covered by the WegenerNet (40 and 39 stations in each grid). We investigated data from April to September of the years 2014 to 2015; the date of first two years after the launch of the GPM Core Observatory. Since the network has a flexibility to work with various spatial and temporal scales, the comparison could be conducted on average-points to pixel basis at both sub-daily and daily timescales. This presentation will summarize the first results of the comparison and future plans to explore the characteristics of errors in the IMERG datasets.

Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

Science.gov (United States)

Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases, the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time-span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

Analysis of rainfall distribution in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Che Ros, Faizah; Tosaka, Hiroyuki

2018-03-01

Using rainfall gauge on its own as input carries great uncertainties regarding runoff estimation, especially when the area is large and the rainfall is measured and recorded at irregular spaced gauging stations. Hence spatial interpolation is the key to obtain continuous and orderly rainfall distribution at unknown points to be the input to the rainfall runoff processes for distributed and semi-distributed numerical modelling. It is crucial to study and predict the behaviour of rainfall and river runoff to reduce flood damages of the affected area along the Kelantan river. Thus, a good knowledge on rainfall distribution is essential in early flood prediction studies. Forty six rainfall stations and their daily time-series were used to interpolate gridded rainfall surfaces using inverse-distance weighting (IDW), inverse-distance and elevation weighting (IDEW) methods and average rainfall distribution. Sensitivity analysis for distance and elevation parameters were conducted to see the variation produced. The accuracy of these interpolated datasets was examined using cross-validation assessment.

Extreme Rainfall In A City

Science.gov (United States)

Nkemdirim, Lawrence

Cities contain many structures and activities that are vulnerable to severe weather. Heavy precipitation cause floods which can damage structures, compromise transportation and water supply systems, and slow down economic and social activities. Rain induced flood patterns in cities must be well understood to enable effective placement of flood control and other regulatory measures. The planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce their frequency and resulting damage. Possible approaches to such planning include probability based extreme event analysis. Precipitation is normally the most variable hydrologic element over a given area. This variability results from the distribution of clouds and in cloud processes in the atmosphere, the storm path, and the distribution of topographical features on the ground along path. Some studies suggest that point rainfall patterns are also affected by urban industrial effects hence some agreement that cities are wetter than the country surrounding them. However, there are still questions regarding the intra- urban distribution of precipitation. The sealed surfaces, urban structures, and the urban heat anomaly increase convection in cities which may enhance the generation of clouds. Increased dust and gaseous aerosols loads are effective condensation and sublimation nuclei which may also enhance the generation of precipitation. Based on these associations, the greatest amount of convection type rainfall should occur at city center. A study of summer rainfall in Calgary showed that frequencies of trace amounts of rainfall and events under 0.2mm are highest downtown than elsewhere. For amounts greater than than 0.2 mm, downtown sites were not favored. The most compelling evidence for urban-industrial precipitation enhancement came from the Metromex project around St. Loius, Missouri where maximum increases of between 5 to 30 per cent in summer rainfall downwind of the city was linked to urbanization and

Constraining continuous rainfall simulations for derived design flood estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Westra, S.

2016-11-01

Stochastic rainfall generation is important for a range of hydrologic and water resources applications. Stochastic rainfall can be generated using a number of models; however, preserving relevant attributes of the observed rainfall-including rainfall occurrence, variability and the magnitude of extremes-continues to be difficult. This paper develops an approach to constrain stochastically generated rainfall with an aim of preserving the intensity-durationfrequency (IFD) relationships of the observed data. Two main steps are involved. First, the generated annual maximum rainfall is corrected recursively by matching the generated intensity-frequency relationships to the target (observed) relationships. Second, the remaining (non-annual maximum) rainfall is rescaled such that the mass balance of the generated rain before and after scaling is maintained. The recursive correction is performed at selected storm durations to minimise the dependence between annual maximum values of higher and lower durations for the same year. This ensures that the resulting sequences remain true to the observed rainfall as well as represent the design extremes that may have been developed separately and are needed for compliance reasons. The method is tested on simulated 6 min rainfall series across five Australian stations with different climatic characteristics. The results suggest that the annual maximum and the IFD relationships are well reproduced after constraining the simulated rainfall. While our presentation focusses on the representation of design rainfall attributes (IFDs), the proposed approach can also be easily extended to constrain other attributes of the generated rainfall, providing an effective platform for post-processing of stochastic rainfall generators.

Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadiq, N.

2015-01-01

Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

2017-01-01

Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

Concentration of radiocesium in stream water from a mountainous catchment area during rainfall events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, Kimihito; Yasutaka, Tetsuo; Hatakeyama, Masato

2012-01-01

Terrestrial and aquatic systems were contaminated with radioactive materials following the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station on 11 March, 2011. It is important that levels of radiocesium (Cs) in stream water from affected areas be monitored as this water is used for paddy irrigation and domestic water. Additionally, soil particles and organic matter from the streams are deposited in rivers, estuaries and into the ocean. Predictions suggest that Cs levels will increase during intense rainfall-runoff events. To check this prediction, we monitored temporal changes in runoff events and Cs levels in stream water from a mountainous catchment area northwest of the Fukushima plant. In March and April, 2012, the concentrations of Cs and suspended solids (SS) in stream water taken from low-level water flow were found to be 0.2–0.3 Bq/L and 2–7 mg/L, respectively. A heavy rainfall event in July 2012 resulted in an increase and subsequent decrease of both the runoff volume and SS concentration. At the beginning of the rainfall event the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS was measured to be 23 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.3 Bq/L over the course of the event. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.1 Bq/L, this decreased only slightly during the runoff event. During a low rainfall event in September 2012 the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS at the beginning of the rainfall event was found to be 15 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.5 Bq/L as the amount of SS in the water decreased. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.2 Bq/L, again this decreased only slightly over the course of the runoff event. The Cs levels in stream water, during rainfall-runoff events, were primary influenced by the concentration of SS. The amount of Cs dissolved in the water, on the other hand, was roughly constant at 0.1–0.2 Bq/L. The results of this study indicate that, although the concentration of Cs in stream water is below

Concentration of radiocesium in stream water from a mountainous catchment area during rainfall events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, Kimihito; Yasutaka, Tetsuo; Hatakeyama, Masato

2013-01-01

Terrestrial and aquatic systems were contaminated with radioactive materials following the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station on 11 March, 2011. It is important that levels of radiocesium (Cs) in stream water from affected areas be monitored as this water is used for paddy irrigation and domestic water. Additionally, soil particles and organic matter from the streams are deposited in rivers, estuaries and into the ocean. Predictions suggest that Cs levels will increase during intense rainfall-runoff events. To check this prediction, we monitored temporal changes in runoff events and Cs levels in stream water from a mountainous catchment area northwest of the Fukushima plant. In March and April, 2012, the concentrations of Cs and suspended solids (SS) in stream water taken from low-level water flow were found to be 0.2-0.3 Bq/L and 2-7 mg/L, respectively. A heavy rainfall event in July 2012 resulted in an increase and subsequent decrease of both the runoff volume and SS concentration. At the beginning of the rainfall event the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS was measured to be 23 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.3 Bq/L over the course of the event. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.1 Bq/L, this decreased only slightly during the runoff event. During a low rainfall event in September 2012 the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS at the beginning of the rainfall event was found to be 15 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.5 Bq/L as the amount of SS in the water decreased. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.2 Bq/L, again this decreased only slightly over the course of the runoff event. The Cs levels in stream water, during rainfall-runoff events, were primary influenced by the concentration of SS. The amount of Cs dissolved in the water, on the other hand, was roughly constant at 0.1-0.2 Bq/L. The results of this study indicate that, although the concentration of Cs in stream water is below the

Information system of rice planting calendar based on ten-day (Dasarian) rainfall prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Susandi, Armi; Tamamadin, Mamad; Djamal, Erizal; Las, Irsal

2015-01-01

This paper describes information system of rice planting calendar to help farmers in determining the time for rice planting. The information includes rainfall prediction in ten days (dasarian) scale overlaid to map of rice field to produce map of rice planting in village level. The rainfall prediction was produced by stochastic modeling using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and Non-Linier Least Squares methods to fit the curve of function to the rainfall data. In this research, the Fourier series has been modified become non-linear function to follow the recent characteristics of rainfall that is non stationary. The results have been also validated in 4 steps, including R-Square, RMSE, R-Skill, and comparison with field data. The development of information system (cyber extension) provides information such as rainfall prediction, prediction of the planting time, and interactive space for farmers to respond to the information submitted. Interfaces for interactive response will be critical to the improvement of prediction accuracy of information, both rainfall and planting time. The method used to get this information system includes mapping on rice planting prediction, converting the format file, developing database system, developing website, and posting website. Because of this map was overlaid with the Google map, the map files must be converted to the .kml file format

Information system of rice planting calendar based on ten-day (Dasarian) rainfall prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Susandi, Armi, E-mail: armi@meteo.itb.ac.id [Department of Meteorology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Labtek XI Building floor 1, Jalan Ganesa 10 Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Tamamadin, Mamad, E-mail: mamadtama@meteo.itb.ac.id [Laboratory of Applied Meteorology, Institut Teknologi Bandung Ged. Labtek XI lt. 1, Jalan Ganesa 10 Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Djamal, Erizal, E-mail: erizal-jamal@yahoo.com [Center for Agricultural Technology Transfer Management, Ministry of Agriculture Jl. Salak No. 22 Bogor (Indonesia); Las, Irsal, E-mail: irsallas@yahoo.com [Indonesian Agroclimate and Hydrology Research Institute, Ministry of Agriculture Jl. Tentara Pelajar 1a Bogor 16111 (Indonesia)

2015-09-30

This paper describes information system of rice planting calendar to help farmers in determining the time for rice planting. The information includes rainfall prediction in ten days (dasarian) scale overlaid to map of rice field to produce map of rice planting in village level. The rainfall prediction was produced by stochastic modeling using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and Non-Linier Least Squares methods to fit the curve of function to the rainfall data. In this research, the Fourier series has been modified become non-linear function to follow the recent characteristics of rainfall that is non stationary. The results have been also validated in 4 steps, including R-Square, RMSE, R-Skill, and comparison with field data. The development of information system (cyber extension) provides information such as rainfall prediction, prediction of the planting time, and interactive space for farmers to respond to the information submitted. Interfaces for interactive response will be critical to the improvement of prediction accuracy of information, both rainfall and planting time. The method used to get this information system includes mapping on rice planting prediction, converting the format file, developing database system, developing website, and posting website. Because of this map was overlaid with the Google map, the map files must be converted to the .kml file format.

Stochastic rainfall synthesis for urban applications using different regionalization methods

Science.gov (United States)

Callau Poduje, A. C.; Leimbach, S.; Haberlandt, U.

2017-12-01

The proper design and efficient operation of urban drainage systems require long and continuous rainfall series in a high temporal resolution. Unfortunately, these time series are usually available in a few locations and it is therefore suitable to develop a stochastic precipitation model to generate rainfall in locations without observations. The model presented is based on an alternating renewal process and involves an external and an internal structure. The members of these structures are described by probability distributions which are site specific. Different regionalization methods based on site descriptors are presented which are used for estimating the distributions for locations without observations. Regional frequency analysis, multiple linear regressions and a vine-copula method are applied for this purpose. An area located in the north-west of Germany is used to compare the different methods and involves a total of 81 stations with 5 min rainfall records. The site descriptors include information available for the whole region: position, topography and hydrometeorologic characteristics which are estimated from long term observations. The methods are compared directly by cross validation of different rainfall statistics. Given that the model is stochastic the evaluation is performed based on ensembles of many long synthetic time series which are compared with observed ones. The performance is as well indirectly evaluated by setting up a fictional urban hydrological system to test the capability of the different methods regarding flooding and overflow characteristics. The results show a good representation of the seasonal variability and good performance in reproducing the sample statistics of the rainfall characteristics. The copula based method shows to be the most robust of the three methods. Advantages and disadvantages of the different methods are presented and discussed.

New spatial and temporal indices of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Dwivedi, Sanjeev; Uma, R.; Lakshmi Kumar, T. V.; Narayanan, M. S.; Pokhrel, Samir; Kripalani, R. H.

2018-02-01

The overall yearly seasonal performance of Indian southwest monsoon rainfall (ISMR) for the whole Indian land mass is presently expressed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) by a single number, the total quantum of rainfall. Any particular year is declared as excess/deficit or normal monsoon rainfall year on the basis of this single number. It is well known that monsoon rainfall also has high interannual variability in spatial and temporal scales. To account for these aspects in ISMR, we propose two new spatial and temporal indices. These indices have been calculated using the 115 years of IMD daily 0.25° × 0.25° gridded rainfall data. Both indices seem to go in tandem with the in vogue seasonal quantum index. The anomaly analysis indicates that the indices during excess monsoon years behave randomly, while for deficit monsoon years the phase of all the three indices is the same. Evaluation of these indices is also studied with respect to the existing dynamical indices based on large-scale circulation. It is found that the new temporal indices have better link with circulation indices as compared to the new spatial indices. El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) especially over the equatorial Pacific Ocean still have the largest influence in both the new indices. However, temporal indices have much better remote influence as compared to that of spatial indices. Linkages over the Indian Ocean regions are very different in both the spatial and temporal indices. Continuous wavelet transform (CWT) analysis indicates that the complete spectrum of oscillation of the QI is shared in the lower oscillation band by the spatial index and in the higher oscillation band by the temporal index. These new indices may give some extra dimension to study Indian summer monsoon variability.

Climatological studies on precipitation features and large-scale atmospheric fields on the heavy rainfall days in the eastern part of Japan from the Baiu to midsummer season

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumoto, Kengo; Kato, Kuranoshin; Otani, Kazuo

2017-04-01

more than 10mm/h was large in the southern half of the heavy rainfall area, moderate rain with less than 10 mm/h contributed greatly to the total rainfall in the northern half. In Patter B, that heavy rainfall area was located just in the area with strong low-level warm advection around the Baiu front to the east of the typhoon. The warm advection near the heavy rainfall area was also found in Pattern A, the heavy rainfall occurred just on the southwest of the large advection. It is noted that, although the very warm humid air can intrude northward by the strong S-ly wind to the east of the typhoon in both Pattern A and B, the low-level baroclinicity around the eastern Japan was stronger in Pattern B. In midsummer, the similar situations to while the "Pattern B"-like situation was not seen. This might be greatly reflected by the seasonal change in the southern boundary of the Okhotsk air mass from the Baiu to midsummer and we will also examine that in the future.

A Physically—Based Geometry Model for Transport Distance Estimation of Rainfall-Eroded Soil Sediment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian-Gui Zhang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Estimations of rainfall-induced soil erosion are mostly derived from the weight of sediment measured in natural runoff. The transport distance of eroded soil is important for evaluating landscape evolution but is difficult to estimate, mainly because it cannot be linked directly to the eroded sediment weight. The volume of eroded soil is easier to calculate visually using popular imaging tools, which can aid in estimating the transport distance of eroded soil through geometry relationships. In this study, we present a straightforward geometry model to predict the maximum sediment transport distance incurred by rainfall events of various intensity and duration. In order to verify our geometry prediction model, a series of experiments are reported in the form of a sediment volume. The results show that cumulative rainfall has a linear relationship with the total volume of eroded soil. The geometry model can accurately estimate the maximum transport distance of eroded soil by cumulative rainfall, with a low root-mean-square error (4.7–4.8 and a strong linear correlation (0.74–0.86.

Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

2017-03-01

In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

Rainfall and runoff characteristics of Namman Basin in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Wagdany, A.S.

2008-01-01

Namman basin is an arid mountainous basin located in the western region of Saudi Arabia and has drainage area of about 650 km2. Namman unconfined groundwater aquifer is the source of water to the historic underground galleries known as Ain Zubaidah. The galleries became dry due to the fall of groundwater levels dramatically in the last few decades. The galleries can only be restored only if a proper water resources management is utilized in the basin. The aim of this research is to investigate two major hydrological components, namely rainfall and runoff, which are essential for a proper management of the water resources of the basin. Rainfall and runoff records for ten rain gauge stations and one runoff gauge station are used to investigate major characteristics of rainfall and runoff in Namman basin. Rainfall records are analyzed to derive conclusion about rainfall occurrence, depth duration, temporal distribution and extreme values. The relation between rainfall depth and elevation is also investigated. Runoff records are utilized to investigate seasonal variation of runoff. Values of runoff coefficient for all runoff events are computed and the relation between rainfall and runoff for the basin are discussed. The results show that there are more than 30 rainstorms per year and only about two runoff events are usually observed. The temporal analysis of rainfall and runoff indicates that there are two rainy seasons, one is during fall and winter season and other is during spring seasons while runoff is mainly observed in the winter season and the other is during spring seasons while runoff is mainly observed in the winter season. Values of runoff coefficient were very low with mean value of 0.013, which indicate that most rainfall infiltrate through the alluvial channels of the basin. (author)

Rainfall Characteristics and Regionalization in Peninsular Malaysia Based on a High Resolution Gridded Data Set

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chee Loong Wong

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Daily gridded rainfall data over Peninsular Malaysia are delineated using an objective clustering algorithm, with the objective of classifying rainfall grids into groups of homogeneous regions based on the similarity of the rainfall annual cycles. It has been demonstrated that Peninsular Malaysia can be statistically delineated into eight distinct rainfall regions. This delineation is closely associated with the topographic and geographic characteristics. The variation of rainfall over the Peninsula is generally characterized by bimodal variations with two peaks, i.e., a primary peak occurring during the autumn transitional period and a secondary peak during the spring transitional period. The east coast zones, however, showed a single peak during the northeast monsoon (NEM. The influence of NEM is stronger compared to the southwest monsoon (SWM. Significantly increasing rainfall trends at 95% confidence level are not observed in all regions during the NEM, with exception of northwest zone (R1 and coastal band of west coast interior region (R3. During SWM, most areas have become drier over the last three decades. The study identifies higher variation of mean monthly rainfall over the east coast regions, but spatially, the rainfall is uniformly distributed. For the southwestern coast and west coast regions, a larger range of coefficients of variation is mostly obtained during the NEM, and to a smaller extent during the SWM. The inland region received least rainfall in February, but showed the largest spatial variation. The relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO was examined based on the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI. Although the concurrent relationships between rainfall in the different regions and ENSO are generally weak with negative correlations, the rainfall shows stronger positive correlation with preceding ENSO signals with a time lag of four to eight months.

Stream II-V5: Revision Of Stream II-V4 To Account For The Effects Of Rainfall Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, K.

2010-01-01

STREAM II-V4 is the aqueous transport module currently used by the Savannah River Site emergency response Weather Information Display (WIND) system. The transport model of the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) was used by STREAM II to perform contaminant transport calculations. WASP5 is a US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) water quality analysis program that simulates contaminant transport and fate through surface water. STREAM II-V4 predicts peak concentration and peak concentration arrival time at downstream locations for releases from the SRS facilities to the Savannah River. The input flows for STREAM II-V4 are derived from the historical flow records measured by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The stream flow for STREAM II-V4 is fixed and the flow only varies with the month in which the releases are taking place. Therefore, the effects of flow surge due to a severe storm are not accounted for by STREAM II-V4. STREAM II-V4 has been revised to account for the effects of a storm event. The steps used in this method are: (1) generate rainfall hyetographs as a function of total rainfall in inches (or millimeters) and rainfall duration in hours; (2) generate watershed runoff flow based on the rainfall hyetographs from step 1; (3) calculate the variation of stream segment volume (cross section) as a function of flow from step 2; (4) implement the results from steps 2 and 3 into the STREAM II model. The revised model (STREAM II-V5) will find the proper stream inlet flow based on the total rainfall and rainfall duration as input by the user. STREAM II-V5 adjusts the stream segment volumes (cross sections) based on the stream inlet flow. The rainfall based stream flow and the adjusted stream segment volumes are then used for contaminant transport calculations.

Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda

Science.gov (United States)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Omony, George William

2018-01-01

This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa (EA), using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The analysis was based on observed daily rainfall from 23 weather stations, with length varying within 1961 and 2010. The indices considered are: wet days ( R ≥1 mm), annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), simple daily intensity index (SDII), heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 10 mm), very heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 20 mm), and severe precipitation ( R ≥ 50 mm). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical analysis was carried out to identify trends in the data. Temporal precipitation distribution was different from station to station. Almost all indices considered are decreasing with time. The analysis shows that the PRCPTOT, very heavy precipitation, and severe precipitation are generally declining insignificantly at 5 % significant level. The PRCPTOT is evidently decreasing over Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) as compared to other parts of EA. The number of days that recorded heavy rainfall is generally decreasing but starts to rise in the last decade although the changes are insignificant. Both PRCPTOT and heavy precipitation show a recovery in trend starting in the 1990s. The SDII shows a reduction in most areas, especially the in ASAL. The changes give a possible indication of the ongoing climate variability and change which modify the rainfall regime of EA. The results form a basis for further research, utilizing longer datasets over the entire region to reduce the generalizations made herein. Continuous monitoring of extreme events in EA is critical, given that rainfall is projected to increase in the twenty-first century.

Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C; Fowler, Hayley J

2017-02-01

Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short-duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub-daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near-complete hourly records for 1992-2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n-largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north-south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub-daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality-control procedures for sub-daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high

Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High

Science.gov (United States)

Reason, C. J. C.

2018-04-01

Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

Total levels of hippocampal histone acetylation predict normal variability in mouse behavior.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Addie May I Nesbitt

Full Text Available Genetic, pharmacological, and environmental interventions that alter total levels of histone acetylation in specific brain regions can modulate behaviors and treatment responses. Efforts have been made to identify specific genes that are affected by alterations in total histone acetylation and to propose that such gene specific modulation could explain the effects of total histone acetylation levels on behavior - the implication being that under naturalistic conditions variability in histone acetylation occurs primarily around the promoters of specific genes.Here we challenge this hypothesis by demonstrating with a novel flow cytometry based technique that normal variability in open field exploration, a hippocampus-related behavior, was associated with total levels of histone acetylation in the hippocampus but not in other brain regions.Results suggest that modulation of total levels of histone acetylation may play a role in regulating biological processes. We speculate in the discussion that endogenous regulation of total levels of histone acetylation may be a mechanism through which organisms regulate cellular plasticity. Flow cytometry provides a useful approach to measure total levels of histone acetylation at the single cell level. Relating such information to behavioral measures and treatment responses could inform drug delivery strategies to target histone deacetylase inhibitors and other chromatin modulators to places where they may be of benefit while avoiding areas where correction is not needed and could be harmful.

Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation

Commercial application of rainfall simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Loch, Rob J.

2010-05-01

Landloch Pty Ltd is a commercial consulting firm, providing advice on a range of land management issues to the mining and construction industries in Australia. As part of the company's day-to-day operations, rainfall simulation is used to assess material erodibility and to investigate a range of site attributes. (Landloch does carry out research projects, though such are not its core business.) When treated as an everyday working tool, several aspects of rainfall simulation practice are distinctively modified. Firstly, the equipment used is regularly maintained, and regularly upgraded with a primary focus on ease, safety, and efficiency of use and on reliability of function. As well, trained and experienced technical support is considered essential. Landloch's chief technician has over 10 years experience in running rainfall simulators at locations across Australia and in Africa and the Pacific. Secondly, the specific experimental conditions established for each set of rainfall simulator runs are carefully considered to ensure that they accurately represent the field conditions to which the data will be subsequently applied. Considerations here include: • wetting and drying cycles to ensure material consolidation and/or cementation if appropriate; • careful attention to water quality if dealing with clay soils or with amendments such as gypsum; • strong focus on ensuring that the erosion processes considered are those of greatest importance to the field situation of concern; and • detailed description of both material and plot properties, to increase the potential for data to be applicable to a wider range of projects and investigations. Other important company procedures include: • For each project, the scientist or engineer responsible for analysing and reporting rainfall simulator data is present during the running of all field plots, as it is essential that they be aware of any specific conditions that may have developed when the plots were subjected

Remote sensing entropy to assess the sustainability of rainfall in tropical catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmud, M. R.; Reba, M. N. M.; Wei, J. S.; Razak, N. H. Abdul

2018-02-01

This study demonstrated the utility of entropy computation using the satellite precipitation remote sensing data to assess the sustainability of rainfall in tropical catchments. There were two major issues need to be anticipated in monitoring the tropical catchments; first is the frequent monitoring of the rainfall and second is the appropriate indicator that sensitive to rainfall pattern changes or disorder. For the first issue, the use of satellite remote sensing precipitation data is suggested. Meanwhile for the second issue, the utilization of entropy concept in interpreting the disorder of temporal rainfall can be used to assess the sustain ability had been successfully adopted in some studies. Therefore, we hypothesized that the use of satellite precipitation as main data to compute entropy can be a novel tool in anticipating the above-mentioned conflict earlier. The remote sensing entropy results and in-situ river level showed good agreement indicating its reliability. 72% of the catchment has moderate to good rainfall supply during normal or non-drought condition. However, our result showed that the catchments were highly sensitive to drought especially in the west coast and southern part of the Peninsular Malaysia. High resiliency was identified in the east coast. We summarized that the proposed entropy-quantity scheme was a useful tool for cost-effective, quick, and operational sustainability assessment This study demonstrated the utility of entropy computation using the satellite precipitation remote sensing data to assess the sustainability of rainfall in tropical catchments.

Intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall and its related atmospheric circulation features during the 1991 summer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mao, Jiangyu; Wu, Guoxiong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Beijing (China); Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

2006-12-15

The intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall over eastern China and its related atmospheric circulation characteristics during the 1991 summer are examined based on the gauge-observed rainfall and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Wavelet analysis shows that during the 1991 summer, the active and break sequences of rainfall over the middle and lower Yangtze Basin are mainly regulated by an oscillatory mode with a period of 15-35 days. An investigation of the circulation features suggests that the 15-35-day oscillation is associated with an anomalous low-level cyclone (anticyclone) appearing alternatively over the northern South China Sea (SCS) and the Philippine Sea, and related to a northeastward (southwestward) shift of the western Pacific subtropical anticyclone over the SCS, leading to a lower tropospheric divergence (convergence) over the Yangtze Basin. In the upper troposphere, the 15-35-day oscillation exhibits a dipole anomaly characterized by an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over eastern China and an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the northern Tibetan Plateau, resulting in a southwestward shrinking (northeastward extending) of the South Asian anticyclone, and forming a convergence (divergence) over eastern China. Such a coupled anomalous flow pattern between the lower and upper troposphere favors large-scale descending (ascending) motion, and hence reduced (enhanced) rainfall over the Yangtze Basin. Dynamically, the intraseasonal variations in the Yangtze rainfall are mainly determined by the coupling between the low-level relative vorticity and the upper-level divergence. In the middle troposphere, the 15-35-day oscillation of the subtropical high is originated over the central North Pacific north of Hawaii, then propagates westward to the SCS-Philippine Sea, and finally modulates the intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall. (orig.)

Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration Law in Unsaturated Soil Slope

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

2014-01-01

In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering t...

The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Spracklen, D. V.; Garcia-Carreras, L.

2015-11-01

We completed a meta-analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1σ) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was -12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business-as-usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.

Prediction of monsoon rainfall with a nested grid mesoscale limited ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

At the India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi, a 12-level limited area ... namurti et al (1995, 1998) noted that the Florida .... intensifies into monsoon depression giving rise to .... available to us on rainfall over the sea is the INSAT.

Relationships between High Impact Tropical Rainfall Events and Environmental Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.

2017-12-01

While rainfall increases as moisture and vertical motion increase, relationships between regional environmental conditions and rainfall event characteristics remain more uncertain. Of particular importance are long duration, heavy rain rate, and significant accumulation events that contribute sizable fractions of overall precipitation over short time periods. This study seeks to establish relationships between observed rainfall event properties and environmental conditions. Event duration, rain rate, and rainfall accumulation are derived using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 3-hourly, 0.25° resolution rainfall retrieval from 2002-2013 between 10°N and 10°S. Events are accumulated into 2.5° grid boxes and matched to monthly mean total column water vapor (TCWV) and 500-hPa vertical motion (omega) in each 2.5° grid box, retrieved from ERA-interim reanalysis. Only months with greater than 3 mm/day rainfall are included to ensure sufficient sampling. 90th and 99th percentile oceanic events last more than 20% longer and have rain rates more than 20% lower than those over land for a given TCWV-omega condition. Event duration and accumulation are more sensitive to omega than TCWV over oceans, but more sensitive to TCWV than omega over land, suggesting system size, propagation speed, and/or forcing mechanism differences for land and ocean regions. Sensitivities of duration, rain rate, and accumulation to TCWV and omega increase with increasing event extremity. For 3B42 and ERA-Interim relationships, the 90th percentile oceanic event accumulation increases by 0.93 mm for every 1 Pa/min change in rising motion, but this increases to 3.7 mm for every 1 Pa/min for the 99th percentile. Over land, the 90th percentile event accumulation increases by 0.55 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV, whereas the 99th percentile increases by 0.90 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV. These changes in event accumulation are highly correlated with changes in event

Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2009-02-09

Feb 9, 2009 ... the lowest number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days. The highest 24-h ... With regard to seasonal rainfall, the 1995/96 summer rainfall season had ..... The Gauteng Province is approximately 16 500 km2 in size. When the ...

The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (mjo) on Extreme Rainfall Over the Central and Southern Peruvian Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Heidinger, H.; Jones, C.; Carvalho, L. V.

2015-12-01

Extreme rainfall is important for the Andean region because of the large contribution of these events to the seasonal totals and consequent impacts on water resources for agriculture, water consumption, industry and hydropower generation, as well as the occurrence of floods and landslides. Over Central and Southern Peruvian Andes (CSPA), rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile contributed between 44 to 100% to the total Nov-Mar 1979-2010 rainfall. Additionally, precipitation from a large majority of stations in the CSPA exhibits statistically significant spectral peaks on intraseasonal time-scales (20 to 70 days). The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most important intraseasonal mode of atmospheric circulation and moist convection in the tropics and the occurrence of extreme weather events worldwide. Mechanisms explaining the relationships between the MJO and precipitation in the Peruvian Andes have not been properly described yet. The present study examines the relationships between the activity and phases of the MJO and the occurrence of extreme rainfall over the CSPA. We found that the frequency of extreme rainfall events increase in the CSPA when the MJO is active. MJO phases 5, 6 and 7 contribute to the overall occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the CSPA. However, how the MJO phases modulate extreme rainfall depends on the location of the stations. For instance, extreme precipitation (above the 90th percentile) in stations in the Amazon basin are slightly more sensitive to phases 2, 3 and 4; the frequency of extremes in stations in the Pacific basin increases in phases 5, 6 and 7 whereas phase 2, 3 and 7 modulates extreme precipitation in stations in the Titicaca basin. Greater variability among stations is observed when using the 95th and 99th percentiles to identify extremes. Among the main mechanisms that explain the increase in extreme rainfall events in the Peruvian Andes is the intensification of the easterly moisture flux anomalies, which

Nitrate Accumulation and Leaching in Surface and Ground Water Based on Simulated Rainfall Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hong; Gao, Jian-en; Li, Xing-hua; Zhang, Shao-long; Wang, Hong-jie

2015-01-01

To evaluate the process of nitrate accumulation and leaching in surface and ground water, we conducted simulated rainfall experiments. The experiments were performed in areas of 5.3 m2 with bare slopes of 3° that were treated with two nitrogen fertilizer inputs, high (22.5 g/m2 NH4NO3) and control (no fertilizer), and subjected to 2 hours of rainfall, with. From the 1st to the 7th experiments, the same content of fertilizer mixed with soil was uniformly applied to the soil surface at 10 minutes before rainfall, and no fertilizer was applied for the 8th through 12th experiments. Initially, the time-series nitrate concentration in the surface flow quickly increased, and then it rapidly decreased and gradually stabilized at a low level during the fertilizer experiments. The nitrogen loss in the surface flow primarily occurred during the first 18.6 minutes of rainfall. For the continuous fertilizer experiments, the mean nitrate concentrations in the groundwater flow remained at less than 10 mg/L before the 5th experiment, and after the 7th experiment, these nitrate concentrations were greater than 10 mg/L throughout the process. The time-series process of the changing concentration in the groundwater flow exhibited the same parabolic trend for each fertilizer experiment. However, the time at which the nitrate concentration began to change lagged behind the start time of groundwater flow by approximately 0.94 hours on average. The experiments were also performed with no fertilizer. In these experiments, the mean nitrate concentration of groundwater initially increased continuously, and then, the process exhibited the same parabolic trend as the results of the fertilization experiments. The nitrate concentration decreased in the subsequent experiments. Eight days after the 12 rainfall experiments, 50.53% of the total nitrate applied remained in the experimental soil. Nitrate residues mainly existed at the surface and in the bottom soil layers, which represents a

Effect of Rainfall Variability on Water Supply in Ikeduru L.G.A. of Imo ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

alternatives, which are that there is a strong relationship between rural water supply in ... Rainfall is a renewable resource, highly variable in space and time and ..... Due to the total dependence on the immediate environment for water supply,.

Hydrological Effects of Historic Rainfall on the Waccamaw River

Science.gov (United States)

Jolly, J.; Bao, S.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the overall water budget of the Waccamaw River during and after a historic rainfall event related to Hurricane Joaquin, producing a 1000-year rainfall event. While rainfall is the only input, it enters the basin through various means. Some rainwater enters the soil as soil moisture while rainfall also goes underground and enters the river channels from underground, which is defined as bucket in. Over time, the rainfall was removed from the river site through various natural processes. Those processes, including evaporation, soil storage as soil moisture, discharge runoff through the river channel, among others, were modeled and validated against the USGS gauge stations. The validated model results were then used to estimate the hydrological response of the Waccamaw River to the rainfall event and determine the overall water budget. The experiment was completed using a WRF-Hydro modeling system for the purposes of weather forecasting and meteorological analysis. Upon completion of the data analysis, the WRF-Hydro model result showed that large amounts of rainfall were variously dispersed through the aforementioned areas. It was determined that after entering the soil rainfall predominantly left the river basin by discharge, while evaporation accounted for the second most common destination of rainfall. Base flow also accounted for a destination of rainfall, though not as much as those previously mentioned.

Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

2016-12-01

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a

Rainfall interception of three trees in Oakland, California

Science.gov (United States)

Qingfu Xiao; E. Gregory McPherson

2011-01-01

A rainfall interception study was conducted in Oakland, California to determine the partitioning of rainfall and the chemical composition of precipitation, throughfall, and stemflow. Rainfall interception measurements were conducted on a gingko (Ginkgo biloba) (13.5 m tall deciduous tree), sweet gum (Liquidambar styraciflua) (8...

Decadal features of heavy rainfall events in eastern China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Huopo; Sun, Jianqi; Fan, Ke

2012-06-01

Based on daily precipitation data, the spatial-temporal features of heavy rainfall events (HREs) during 1960-2009 are investigated. The results indicate that the HREs experienced strong decadal variability in the past 50 years, and the decadal features varied across regions. More HRE days are observed in the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s over Northeast China (NEC); in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s over North China (NC); in the early 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s over the Huaihe River basin (HR); in the 1970s-1990s over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR); and in the 1970s and 1990s over South China (SC). These decadal changes of HRE days in eastern China are closely associated with the decadal variations of water content and stratification stability of the local atmosphere. The intensity of HREs in each sub-region is also characterized by strong decadal variability. The HRE intensity and frequency co-vary on the long-term trend, and show consistent variability over NEC, NC, and YR, but inconsistent variability over SC and HR. Further analysis of the relationships between the annual rainfall and HRE frequency as well as intensity indicates that the HRE frequency is the major contributor to the total rainfall variability in eastern China, while the HRE intensity shows only relative weak contribution.

The analysis of the possibility of using 10-minute rainfall series to determine the maximum rainfall amount with 5 minutes duration

Science.gov (United States)

Kaźmierczak, Bartosz; Wartalska, Katarzyna; Wdowikowski, Marcin; Kotowski, Andrzej

2017-11-01

Modern scientific research in the area of heavy rainfall analysis regarding to the sewerage design indicates the need to develop and use probabilistic rain models. One of the issues that remains to be resolved is the length of the shortest amount of rain to be analyzed. It is commonly believed that the best time is 5 minutes, while the least rain duration measured by the national services is often 10 or even 15 minutes. Main aim of this paper is to present the difference between probabilistic rainfall models results given from rainfall time series including and excluding 5 minutes rainfall duration. Analysis were made for long-time period from 1961-2010 on polish meteorological station Legnica. To develop best fitted to measurement rainfall data probabilistic model 4 probabilistic distributions were used. Results clearly indicates that models including 5 minutes rainfall duration remains more appropriate to use.

Satellite and gauge rainfall merging using geographically weighted regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Q. Hu

2015-05-01

Full Text Available A residual-based rainfall merging scheme using geographically weighted regression (GWR has been proposed. This method is capable of simultaneously blending various satellite rainfall data with gauge measurements and could describe the non-stationary influences of geographical and terrain factors on rainfall spatial distribution. Using this new method, an experimental study on merging daily rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center Morphing dataset (CMOROH and gauge measurements was conducted for the Ganjiang River basin, in Southeast China. We investigated the capability of the merging scheme for daily rainfall estimation under different gauge density. Results showed that under the condition of sparse gauge density the merging rainfall scheme is remarkably superior to the interpolation using just gauge data.

Enhancement of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks on the Australian summer monsoon by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Notaro, Michael

2018-01-01

A regional climate modeling analysis of the Australian monsoon system reveals a substantial modulation of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), both of which operate at similar sub-seasonal time scales, as evidence that the intensity of land-atmosphere interactions is sensitive to the background atmospheric state. Based on ensemble experiments with imposed modification of northern Australian leaf area index (LAI), the atmospheric responses to LAI anomalies are composited for negative and positive modes of the propagating MJO. In the regional climate model (RCM), northern Australian vegetation feedbacks are characterized by evapotranspiration (ET)-driven rainfall responses, with the moisture feedback mechanism dominating over albedo and roughness feedback mechanisms. During November-April, both Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and RCM data reveal MJO's pronounced influence on rainfall patterns across northern Australia, tropical Indian Ocean, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea, and Gulf of Carpentaria, with the MJO dominating over vegetation feedbacks in terms of regulating monsoon rainfall variability. Convectively-active MJO phases support an enhancement of positive vegetation feedbacks on monsoon rainfall. While the MJO imposes minimal regulation of ET responses to LAI anomalies, the vegetation feedback-induced responses in precipitable water, cloud water, and rainfall are greatly enhanced during convectively-active MJO phases over northern Australia, which are characterized by intense low-level convergence and efficient precipitable water conversion. The sub-seasonal response of vegetation-rainfall feedback intensity to the MJO is complex, with significant enhancement of rainfall responses to LAI anomalies in February during convectively-active MJO phases compared to minimal modulation by the MJO during prior and subsequent calendar months.

Large-Scale Processes Associated with Inter-Decadal and Inter-Annual Early Spring Rainfall Variability in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jau-Ming Chen

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Early spring (March - April rainfall in Taiwan exhibits evident and distinct inter-annual and inter-decadal variability. The inter-annual varibility has a positive correlation with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation while the inter-decadal variability features a phase change beginning in the late 1970s, coherent with the major phase change in the Pacific decadal oscillation. Rainfall variability in both timescales is regulated by large-scale processes showing consistent dynamic features. Rainfall increases are associated with positive sea surface temperature (SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific. An anomalous lower-level divergent center appears in the tropical central Pacific. Via a Rossby-wave-like response, an anomalous lower-level anticyclone appears to the southeast of Taiwan over the Philippine Sea-tropical western Pacific region, which is accompanied by an anomalous cyclone to the north-northeast of Taiwan. Both circulation anomalies induce anomalous southwesterly flows to enhance moisture flux from the South China Sea onto Taiwan, resulting in significant moisture convergence nearby Taiwan. With enhanced moisture supplied by anomalous southwesterly flows, significant rainfall increases occur in both inter-annual and inter-decadal timescales in early spring rainfall on Taiwan.

Physical Responses of Convective Heavy Rainfall to Future Warming Condition: Case Study of the Hiroshima Event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenshi Hibino

2018-04-01

Full Text Available An extreme precipitation event happened at Hiroshima in 2014. Over 200 mm of total rainfall was observed on the night of August 19th, which caused floods and many landslides. The rainfall event was estimated to be a rare event happening once in approximately 30 years. The physical response of this event to the change of the future atmospheric condition, which includes a temperature increase on average and convective stability change, is investigated in the present study using a 27-member ensemble experiment and pseudo global warming downscaling method. The experiment is integrated using the Japan Meteorological Research Institute non-hydrostatic regional climate model. A very high-resolution horizontal grid, 500 m, is used to reproduce dense cumulonimbus cloud formation causing heavy rainfall in the model. The future climate condition determined by a higher greenhouse gas concentration is prescribed to the model, in which the surface air temperature globally averaged is 4 K warmer than that in the preindustrial era. The total amounts of precipitation around the Hiroshima area in the future experiments are closer to or slightly lower than in the current experiments in spite of the increase in water vapor due to the atmospheric warming. The effect of the water vapor increase on extreme precipitation is found to be canceled out by the suppression of convection due to the thermal stability enhancement. The fact that future extreme precipitation like the Hiroshima event is not intensified is in contrast to the well-known result that extreme rainfall tends to be intensified in the future. The results in the present study imply that the response of extreme precipitation to global warming differs for each rainfall phenomenon.

Total pollution effect of urban surface runoff.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Hongbing; Luo, Lin; Huang, Gu; Liu, Ping; Li, Jingxian; Hu, Sheng; Wang, Fuxiang; Xu, Rui; Huang, Xiaoxue

2009-01-01

For pollution research with regard to urban surface runoff, most sampling strategies to date have focused on differences in land usage. With single land-use sampling, total surface runoff pollution effect cannot be evaluated unless every land usage spot is monitored. Through a new sampling strategy known as mixed stormwater sampling for a street community at discharge outlet adjacent to river, this study assessed the total urban surface runoff pollution effect caused by a variety of land uses and the pollutants washed off from the rain pipe system in the Futian River watershed in Shenzhen City of China. The water quality monitoring indices were COD (chemical oxygen demand), TSS (total suspend solid), TP (total phosphorus), TN (total nitrogen) and BOD (biochemical oxygen demand). The sums of total pollution loads discharged into the river for the four indices of COD, TSS, TN, and TP over all seven rainfall events were very different. The mathematical model for simulating total pollution loads was established from discharge outlet mixed stormwater sampling of total pollution loads on the basis of four parameters: rainfall intensity, total land area, impervious land area, and pervious land area. In order to treat surface runoff pollution, the values of MFF30 (mass first flush ratio) and FF30 (first 30% of runoff volume) can be considered as split-flow control criteria to obtain more effective and economical design of structural BMPs (best management practices) facilities.

Prediction of East African Seasonal Rainfall Using Simplex Canonical Correlation Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ntale, Henry K.; Yew Gan, Thian; Mwale, Davison

2003-06-01

A linear statistical model, canonical correlation analysis (CCA), was driven by the Nelder-Mead simplex optimization algorithm (called CCA-NMS) to predict the standardized seasonal rainfall totals of East Africa at 3-month lead time using SLP and SST anomaly fields of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans combined together by 24 simplex optimized weights, and then `reduced' by the principal component analysis. Applying the optimized weights to the predictor fields produced better March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON) seasonal rain forecasts than a direct application of the same, unweighted predictor fields to CCA at both calibration and validation stages. Northeastern Tanzania and south-central Kenya had the best SON prediction results with both validation correlation and Hanssen-Kuipers skill scores exceeding +0.3. The MAM season was better predicted in the western parts of East Africa. The CCA correlation maps showed that low SON rainfall in East Africa is associated with cold SSTs off the Somali coast and the Benguela (Angola) coast, and low MAM rainfall is associated with a buildup of low SSTs in the Indian Ocean adjacent to East Africa and the Gulf of Guinea.

Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides

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Vessia, G.; Parise, M.; Brunetti, M. T.; Peruccacci, S.; Rossi, M.; Vennari, C.; Guzzetti, F.

2014-04-01

Over the last 40 years, many contributions have been devoted to identifying the empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. intensity vs. duration ID, cumulated rainfall vs. duration ED, cumulated rainfall vs. intensity EI) for the initiation of shallow landslides, based on local as well as worldwide inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has rarely been addressed. Nonetheless, objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence (effective rainfall) play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented: (1) the first is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over one month preceding the landslide occurrence, and (2) the second on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure written in R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy by the CNR-IRPI research group from 2002 to 2012 has been used to calibrate the proposed procedure. The cumulated rainfall E and duration D of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the (D,E) diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the (D,E) pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method.

Producing Daily and Embedded Hourly Rainfall Data Using a Novel Weather Generator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Pin Tung

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The number of worldwide extreme drought and flood events has risen significantly in recent years. Many studies confer that climate change may cause more intensive and extreme events. Simulating the impact of climate change often requires weather data as inputs to assessment models. Stochastic weather generators have been developed to produce weather data with the same temporal resolution based on the outputs of GCMs. Reservoir simulation normally uses operational rules in daily and hourly time steps for water supply and flood reduction, respectively. Simulating consecutive drought and flood events simultaneously requires a weather generator to produce different temporal resolution data. This work develops a continuous weather generator to generate daily and hourly precipitation data for regular wet days and severe storms, respectively. Daily rainfall data is generated for regular wet days using Exponential distribution or Weibull distribution, while the total rainfall data for severe storms is generated using the Pearson type III or Log Pearson type III distribution. Moreover, hourly rainfall is determined based on generated hyetographs. Simulation results indicate that the proposed continuous weather generator can generate daily and hourly rainfall reasonably. The proposed weather generator is thus highly promising for use in evaluating how climate change impacts reservoir operations that are significantly influenced by more frequent and intensive consecutive drought and flood events.

Gross rainfall amount and maximum rainfall intensity in 60-minute influence on interception loss of shrubs: a 10-year observation in the Tengger Desert.

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Zhang, Zhi-Shan; Zhao, Yang; Li, Xin-Rong; Huang, Lei; Tan, Hui-Juan

2016-05-17

In water-limited regions, rainfall interception is influenced by rainfall properties and crown characteristics. Rainfall properties, aside from gross rainfall amount and duration (GR and RD), maximum rainfall intensity and rainless gap (RG), within rain events may heavily affect throughfall and interception by plants. From 2004 to 2014 (except for 2007), individual shrubs of Caragana korshinskii and Artemisia ordosica were selected to measure throughfall during 210 rain events. Various rainfall properties were auto-measured and crown characteristics, i.e., height, branch and leaf area index, crown area and volume of two shrubs were also measured. The relative interceptions of C. korshinskii and A. ordosica were 29.1% and 17.1%, respectively. Rainfall properties have more contributions than crown characteristics to throughfall and interception of shrubs. Throughfall and interception of shrubs can be explained by GR, RI60 (maximum rainfall intensities during 60 min), RD and RG in deceasing importance. However, relative throughfall and interception of two shrubs have different responses to rainfall properties and crown characteristics, those of C. korshinskii were closely related to rainfall properties, while those of A. ordosica were more dependent on crown characteristics. We highlight long-term monitoring is very necessary to determine the relationships between throughfall and interception with crown characteristics.

Sampling Errors in Monthly Rainfall Totals for TRMM and SSM/I, Based on Statistics of Retrieved Rain Rates and Simple Models

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Bell, Thomas L.; Kundu, Prasun K.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Estimates from TRMM satellite data of monthly total rainfall over an area are subject to substantial sampling errors due to the limited number of visits to the area by the satellite during the month. Quantitative comparisons of TRMM averages with data collected by other satellites and by ground-based systems require some estimate of the size of this sampling error. A method of estimating this sampling error based on the actual statistics of the TRMM observations and on some modeling work has been developed. "Sampling error" in TRMM monthly averages is defined here relative to the monthly total a hypothetical satellite permanently stationed above the area would have reported. "Sampling error" therefore includes contributions from the random and systematic errors introduced by the satellite remote sensing system. As part of our long-term goal of providing error estimates for each grid point accessible to the TRMM instruments, sampling error estimates for TRMM based on rain retrievals from TRMM microwave (TMI) data are compared for different times of the year and different oceanic areas (to minimize changes in the statistics due to algorithmic differences over land and ocean). Changes in sampling error estimates due to changes in rain statistics due 1) to evolution of the official algorithms used to process the data, and 2) differences from other remote sensing systems such as the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), are analyzed.

High Severity Wildfire Effect On Rainfall Infiltration And Runoff: A Cellular Automata Based Simulation

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Vergara-Blanco, J. E.; Leboeuf-Pasquier, J.; Benavides-Solorio, J. D. D.

2017-12-01

A simulation software that reproduces rainfall infiltration and runoff for a storm event in a particular forest area is presented. A cellular automaton is utilized to represent space and time. On the time scale, the simulation is composed by a sequence of discrete time steps. On the space scale, the simulation is composed of forest surface cells. The software takes into consideration rain intensity and length, individual forest cell soil absorption capacity evolution, and surface angle of inclination. The software is developed with the C++ programming language. The simulation is executed on a 100 ha area within La Primavera Forest in Jalisco, Mexico. Real soil texture for unburned terrain and high severity wildfire affected terrain is employed to recreate the specific infiltration profile. Historical rainfall data of a 92 minute event is used. The Horton infiltration equation is utilized for infiltration capacity calculation. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is employed to reproduce the surface topography. The DEM is displayed with a 3D mesh graph where individual surface cells can be observed. The plot colouring renders water content development at the cell level throughout the storm event. The simulation shows that the cumulative infiltration and runoff which take place at the surface cell level depend on the specific storm intensity, fluctuation and length, overall terrain topography, cell slope, and soil texture. Rainfall cumulative infiltration for unburned and high severity wildfire terrain are compared: unburned terrain exhibits a significantly higher amount of rainfall infiltration.It is concluded that a cellular automaton can be utilized with a C++ program to reproduce rainfall infiltration and runoff under diverse soil texture, topographic and rainfall conditions in a forest setting. This simulation is geared for an optimization program to pinpoint the locations of a series of forest land remediation efforts to support reforestation or to minimize runoff.

The partitioning of litter carbon during litter decomposition under different rainfall patterns: a laboratory study

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Yang, X.; Szlavecz, K. A.; Langley, J. A.; Pitz, S.; Chang, C. H.

2017-12-01

Quantifying litter C into different C fluxes during litter decomposition is necessary to understand carbon cycling under changing climatic conditions. Rainfall patterns are predicted to change in the future, and their effects on the fate of litter carbon are poorly understood. Soils from deciduous forests in Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC) in Maryland, USA were collected to reconstruct soil columns in the lab. 13C labeled tulip poplar leaf litter was used to trace carbon during litter decomposition. Top 1% and the mean of 15-minute historical precipitation data from nearby weather stations were considered as extreme and control rainfall intensity, respectively. Both intensity and frequency of rainfall were manipulated, while the total amount was kept constant. A pulse of CO2 efflux was detected right after each rainfall event in the soil columns with leaf litter. After the first event, CO2 efflux of the control rainfall treatment soils increased to threefold of the CO2 efflux before rain event and that of the extreme treatment soils increased to fivefold. However, in soils without leaf litter, CO2 efflux was suppressed right after rainfall events. After each rainfall event, the leaf litter contribution to CO2 efflux first showed an increase, decreased sharply in the following two days, and then stayed relatively constant. In soil columns with leaf litter, the order of cumulative CO2 efflux was control > extreme > intermediate. The order of cumulative CO2 efflux in the bare soil treatment was extreme > intermediate > control. The order of volume of leachate from different treatments was extreme > intermediate > control. Our initial results suggest that more intense rainfall events result in larger pulses of CO2, which is rarely measured in the field. Additionally, soils with and without leaf litter respond differently to precipitation events. This is important to consider in temperate regions where leaf litter cover changes throughout the year

Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

Science.gov (United States)

Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

2009-01-01

While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

A rainfall disaggregation scheme for sub-hourly time scales: Coupling a Bartlett-Lewis based model with adjusting procedures

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Kossieris, Panagiotis; Makropoulos, Christos; Onof, Christian; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2018-01-01

Many hydrological applications, such as flood studies, require the use of long rainfall data at fine time scales varying from daily down to 1 min time step. However, in the real world there is limited availability of data at sub-hourly scales. To cope with this issue, stochastic disaggregation techniques are typically employed to produce possible, statistically consistent, rainfall events that aggregate up to the field data collected at coarser scales. A methodology for the stochastic disaggregation of rainfall at fine time scales was recently introduced, combining the Bartlett-Lewis process to generate rainfall events along with adjusting procedures to modify the lower-level variables (i.e., hourly) so as to be consistent with the higher-level one (i.e., daily). In the present paper, we extend the aforementioned scheme, initially designed and tested for the disaggregation of daily rainfall into hourly depths, for any sub-hourly time scale. In addition, we take advantage of the recent developments in Poisson-cluster processes incorporating in the methodology a Bartlett-Lewis model variant that introduces dependence between cell intensity and duration in order to capture the variability of rainfall at sub-hourly time scales. The disaggregation scheme is implemented in an R package, named HyetosMinute, to support disaggregation from daily down to 1-min time scale. The applicability of the methodology was assessed on a 5-min rainfall records collected in Bochum, Germany, comparing the performance of the above mentioned model variant against the original Bartlett-Lewis process (non-random with 5 parameters). The analysis shows that the disaggregation process reproduces adequately the most important statistical characteristics of rainfall at wide range of time scales, while the introduction of the model with dependent intensity-duration results in a better performance in terms of skewness, rainfall extremes and dry proportions.

A Poisson Cluster Stochastic Rainfall Generator That Accounts for the Interannual Variability of Rainfall Statistics: Validation at Various Geographic Locations across the United States

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Dongkyun Kim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A novel approach for a Poisson cluster stochastic rainfall generator was validated in its ability to reproduce important rainfall and watershed response characteristics at 104 locations in the United States. The suggested novel approach, The Hybrid Model (THM, as compared to the traditional Poisson cluster rainfall modeling approaches, has an additional capability to account for the interannual variability of rainfall statistics. THM and a traditional approach of Poisson cluster rainfall model (modified Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model were compared in their ability to reproduce the characteristics of extreme rainfall and watershed response variables such as runoff and peak flow. The results of the comparison indicate that THM generally outperforms the traditional approach in reproducing the distributions of peak rainfall, peak flow, and runoff volume. In addition, THM significantly outperformed the traditional approach in reproducing extreme rainfall by 2.3% to 66% and extreme flow values by 32% to 71%.

Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

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Comellas, A.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Sairouni, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Siccardi, F.

2011-07-01

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9-10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (≤24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC

Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. J. Wood

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

The use of simulated rainfall to study the discharge process and the influence factors of urban surface runoff pollution loads.

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Qinqin, Li; Qiao, Chen; Jiancai, Deng; Weiping, Hu

2015-01-01

An understanding of the characteristics of pollutants on impervious surfaces is essential to estimate pollution loads and to design methods to minimize the impacts of pollutants on the environment. In this study, simulated rainfall equipment was constructed to investigate the pollutant discharge process and the influence factors of urban surface runoff (USR). The results indicated that concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) appeared to be higher in the early period and then decreased gradually with rainfall duration until finally stabilized. The capacity and particle size of surface dust, rainfall intensity and urban surface slopes affected runoff pollution loads to a variable extent. The loads of TP, TN and COD showed a positive relationship with the surface dust capacity, whereas the maximum TSS load appeared when the surface dust was 0.0317 g·cm⁻². Smaller particle sizes (pollution carrying capacity of runoff, leading to higher pollution loads. Knowledge of the influence factors could assist in the management of USR pollution loads.

Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for postfire debris-flow emergency-response planning

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Cannon, S.H.; Boldt, E.M.; Laber, J.L.; Kean, J.W.; Staley, D.M.

2011-01-01

Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies can be faced with evacuation and resource-deployment decisions well in advance of coming winter storms and during storms themselves. Information critical to these decisions is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands is used to develop a system for classifying magnitudes of hydrologic response. The four-class system describes combinations of reported volumes of individual debris flows, consequences of debris flows and floods in an urban setting, and spatial extents of the hydrologic response. The range of rainfall conditions associated with different magnitude classes is defined by integrating local rainfall data with the response magnitude information. Magnitude I events can be expected when within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) of given durations (D) fall above the threshold A = 0.4D0.5 and below A = 0.5D0.6 for durations greater than 1 h. Magnitude II events will be generated in response to rainfall accumulations and durations between A = 0.4D0.5 and A = 0.9D0.5 for durations less than 1 h, and between A = 0.5D0.6 and A = 0.9D0.5 or durations greater than 1 h. Magnitude III events can be expected in response to rainfall conditions above the threshold A = 0.9D0.5. Rainfall threshold-magnitude relations are linked with potential emergency-response actions as an emergency-response decision chart, which leads a user through steps to determine potential event magnitudes and identify possible evacuation and resource-deployment levels. Use of this information in planning and response decision-making process could result in increased safety for both the public and emergency responders. ?? 2011 US Government.

Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

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Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

2017-11-01

Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

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Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up

Serum total bilirubin levels and coronary heart disease--Causal association or epiphenomenon?

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Kunutsor, Setor K

2015-12-01

Observational epidemiological evidence supports a linear inverse and independent association between serum total bilirubin levels and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, but whether this association is causal remains to be ascertained. A Mendelian randomization approach was employed to test whether serum total bilirubin is causally linked to CHD. The genetic variant rs6742078--well known to specifically modify levels of serum total bilirubin and accounting for up to 20% of the variance in circulating serum total bilirubin levels--was used as an instrumental variable. In pooled analysis of estimates reported from published genome-wide association studies, every copy of the T allele of rs6742078 was associated with 0.42 standard deviation (SD) higher levels of serum total bilirubin (95% confidence interval, 0.40 to 0.43). Based on combined data from the Coronary Artery Disease Genome wide Replication and Meta-analyses and the Coronary Artery Disease (C4D) Genetics Consortium involving a total of 36,763 CHD cases and 76,997 controls, the odds ratio for CHD per copy of the T allele was 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.04). The odds ratio of CHD for a 1 SD genetically elevated serum total bilirubin level was 1.03 (95% confidence interval, 0.98 to 1.09). The current findings casts doubt on a strong causal association of serum total bilirubin levels with CHD. The inverse associations demonstrated in observational studies may be driven by biases such as unmeasured confounding and/or reverse causation. However, further research in large-scale consortia is needed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rainfall reliability, drought and flood vulnerability in Botswana ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Rainfall data from 14 stations (cities, towns and major villages) spanning 26 years (1970 to 1995) were used to calculate reliability and vulnerability of rainfall in Botswana. Time series data for 72 years were generated from the long-term rainfall gauging stations and the number of wet and dry years determined. Apart from ...

Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall associated with ENSO and its Predictability

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Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.; Zhu, J.; Marx, L.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

2015-12-01

The leading modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability and their seasonal predictability are investigated using the CFSv2 hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses over the period of 1979-2008 and observation-based analyses. It is shown that the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies, which together account for about 34% of total variance, largely correspond to the ASM responses to the ENSO influences during the summers of the developing and decaying years of a Pacific anomalous event, respectively. These two ASM modes are then designated as the contemporary and delayed ENSO responses, respectively. It is demonstrated that the CFSv2 is capable of predicting these two dominant ASM modes up to the lead of 5 months. More importantly, the predictability of the ASM rainfall are much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporary one, with the predicted principal component time series of the former maintaining high correlation skill and small ensemble spread with all lead months whereas the latter shows significant degradation in both measures with lead-time. A composite analysis for the ASM rainfall anomalies of all warm ENSO events in this period substantiates the finding that the ASM is more predictable following an ENSO event. The enhanced predictability mainly comes from the evolution of the warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean in the spring of the ENSO maturing phases and the persistence of the anomalous high sea surface pressure over the western Pacific in the subsequent summer, which the hindcasts are able to capture reasonably well. The results also show that the ensemble initialization with multiple ocean analyses improves the CFSv2's prediction skill of both ENSO and ASM rainfall. In fact, the skills of the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized from the four different ocean analyses are always equivalent to the best ones initialized from any individual ocean

Temporal and spatial variations of rainfall erosivity in Southern Taiwan

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Lee, Ming-Hsi; Lin, Huan-Hsuan; Chu, Chun-Kuang

2014-05-01

Soil erosion models are essential in developing effective soil and water resource conservation strategies. Soil erosion is generally evaluated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with an appropriate regional scale description. Among factors in the USLE model, the rainfall erosivity index (R) provides one of the clearest indications of the effects of climate change. Accurate estimation of rainfall erosivity requires continuous rainfall data; however, such data rarely demonstrate good spatial and temporal coverage. The data set consisted of 9240 storm events for the period 1993 to 2011, monitored by 27 rainfall stations of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in southern Taiwan, was used to analyze the temporal-spatial variations of rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution map was plotted based on rainfall erosivity by the Kriging interpolation method. Results indicated that rainfall erosivity is mainly concentrated in rainy season from June to November typically contributed 90% of the yearly R factor. The temporal variations of monthly rainfall erosivity during June to November and annual rainfall erosivity have increasing trend from 1993 to 2011. There is an increasing trend from southwest to northeast in spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in southern Taiwan. The results further indicated that there is a higher relationship between elevation and rainfall erosivity. The method developed in this study may also be useful for sediment disasters on Climate Change.

Performance of bias corrected MPEG rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

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Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Ayana, Essayas K.; Maathuis, Ben H. P.; MacAlister, Charlotte; Philpot, William D.; Osorio Leyton, Javier M.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2018-01-01

In many developing countries and remote areas of important ecosystems, good quality precipitation data are neither available nor readily accessible. Satellite observations and processing algorithms are being extensively used to produce satellite rainfall products (SREs). Nevertheless, these products are prone to systematic errors and need extensive validation before to be usable for streamflow simulations. In this study, we investigated and corrected the bias of Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate-Geostationary (MPEG) data. The corrected MPEG dataset was used as input to a semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) for simulation of discharge of the Gilgel Abay and Gumara watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The result indicated that the MPEG satellite rainfall captured 81% and 78% of the gauged rainfall variability with a consistent bias of underestimating the gauged rainfall by 60%. A linear bias correction applied significantly reduced the bias while maintaining the coefficient of correlation. The simulated flow using bias corrected MPEG SRE resulted in a simulated flow comparable to the gauge rainfall for both watersheds. The study indicated the potential of MPEG SRE in water budget studies after applying a linear bias correction.

Temporal characteristics of rainfall events under three climate types in Slovenia

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Dolšak, Domen; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

2016-10-01

Temporal rainfall distribution can often have significant influence on other hydrological processes such as runoff generation or rainfall interception. High-frequency rainfall data from 30 stations in Slovenia were analysed in order to improve the knowledge about the temporal rainfall distribution within a rainfall event. Using the pre-processed rainfall data Huff curves were determined and the binary shape code (BSC) methodology was applied. Although Slovenia covers only about 20,000 km2, results indicate large temporal and spatial variability in the precipitation pattern of the analysed stations, which is in agreement with the different Slovenian climate types: sub-Mediterranean, temperate continental, and mountain climate. Statistically significant correlation was identified between the most frequent BSC types, mean annual precipitation, and rainfall erosivity for individual rainfall stations. Moreover, different temporal rainfall distributions were observed for rainfall events with shorter duration (less than 12 h) than those with longer duration (more than 24 h). Using the analysis of the Huff curves it was shown that the variability in the Huff curves decreases with increasing rainfall duration. Thus, it seems that for shorter duration convective storms a more diverse temporal rainfall distribution can be expected than for the longer duration frontal precipitation where temporal rainfall distribution shows less variability.

Diurnal Variation of Rainfall Associated with Tropical Depression in South China and its Relationship to Land-Sea Contrast and Topography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuchun Zhao

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Convective precipitation associated with tropical depression (TD is one primary type of post-flooding season rainfall in South China (SC. Observations of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite have shown specific diurnal features of convective rainfall in South China, which is somewhat different from that in other seasons or regions of China. Convective precipitation is usually organized into a rainfall band along the southeastern coast of South China in the early morning hours. The rainfall band develops and intensifies quickly in the morning, then moves inland in the afternoon and, finally, diminishes at night. The daily convective rainfall along the coast is much more than that in the inland region, and heavy rainfall is often found along the coast. A long-duration heavy rainfall event associated with tropical depression “Fitow” during the period from 28 August to 6 September 2001, is selected in this study to explore the diurnal feature of convective rainfall and its formation mechanism. Modeling results of the 10-day heavy rainfall event are compared with both rain-gauge observation and satellite-retrieved rainfall. Total precipitation and its spatial distribution, as well as diurnal variations are reasonably simulated and agree well with observations. Further analysis reveals that the development and movement of convective precipitation is mainly related to the land and sea breezes. The anomalous height-latitudinal circulation in the morning-to-noon hours is completely reversed in the afternoon-to-late-evening hours, with the convective rainfall swinging back and forth, following its updraft branch. Sensitivity experiments show that the afternoon convective rainfall in the inland region of SC is caused by the diurnal variation of solar radiation forcing. The mountain range along the coast and the complex topography in the inland region of SC plays a critical role in the enhancement of diurnal convective rainfall

The washout effects of rainfall on atmospheric particulate pollution in two Chinese cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Ling-Chuan; Zhang, Yonghui; Lin, Hualiang; Zeng, Weilin; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Rutherford, Shannon; You, Jing; Ma, Wenjun

2016-08-01

Though rainfall is recognized as one of the main mechanisms to reduce atmospheric particulate pollution, few studies have quantified this effect, particularly the corresponding lag effect and threshold. This study aimed to investigate the association between rainfall and air quality using a distributed lag non-linear model. Daily data on ambient PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm and from 2.5 to 10 μm) and meteorological factors were collected in Guangzhou and Xi'an from 2013 to 2014. A better washout effect was found for PM2.5-10 than for PM2.5, and the rainfall thresholds for both particle fractions were 7 mm in Guangzhou and 1 mm in Xi'an. The decrease in PM2.5 levels following rain lasted for 3 and 6 days in Guangzhou and Xi'an, respectively. Rainfall had a better washout effect in Xi'an compared with that in Guangzhou. Findings from this study contribute to a better understanding of the washout effects of rainfall on particulate pollution, which may help to understand the category and sustainability of dust-haze and enforce anthropogenic control measures in time. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Long S.

1986-01-01

The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

Hydrologic conditions and quality of rainfall and storm runoff for two agricultural areas of the Oso Creek Watershed, Nueces County, Texas, 2005-07

Science.gov (United States)

Ockerman, Darwin J.

2008-01-01

per acre per year from the West Oso Creek subwatershed and 0.966 pound per acre per year from the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. Total phosphorus yields from the West Oso Creek and the Oso Creek tributary subwatersheds for the 2-year period were 0.776 and 0.498 pound per acre per year. Runoff yields of nitrogen and phosphorus were relatively small compared to inputs of nitrogen in fertilizer and rainfall deposition. Average annual runoff yield of total nitrogen (subwatersheds combined) represents about 2.4 percent of nitrogen applied as fertilizer and nitrogen entering the subwatersheds through rainfall deposition. Average annual runoff yield of total phosphorus (subwatersheds combined) represents about 4.4 percent of the phosphorus in applied fertilizer and rainfall deposition. Suspended-sediment yields from the West Oso Creek subwatershed were more than twice those from the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. The average suspended-sediment yield from the West Oso Creek subwatershed was 582 pounds per acre per year. The average suspended-sediment yield from the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed was 257 pounds per acre per year. Twenty-two herbicides and eight insecticides were detected in runoff samples collected from the two subwatershed outlet sites. At the West Oso Creek site, 18 herbicides and four insecticides were detected, and at the Oso Creek tributary site, 17 herbicides and six insecticides. Seventeen pesticides were detected in only one sample at low concentrations (near the laboratory reporting level). Atrazine, atrazine degradation byproducts 2-chloro-4-isopropylamino-6-amino-s-triazine (CIAT) and 2-hydroxy-4-isopropylamino-6-ethylamino-s-triazine (OIET), glyphosate, and glyphosate byproduct aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) were detected in all samples. Of all pesticides detected in runoff, the highest runoff yields were for glyphosate, 0.013 pound per acre per year for the West Oso Creek subwatershed and 0.001 pound per acre per year for the Oso Creek

Transport mechanisms of soil-bound mercury in the erosion process during rainfall-runoff events.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yi; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Wei; Wu, Xin; Zhang, Juan; Han, Feng

2016-08-01

Soil contamination by mercury (Hg) is a global environmental issue. In watersheds with a significant soil Hg storage, soil erosion during rainfall-runoff events can result in nonpoint source (NPS) Hg pollution and therefore, can extend its environmental risk from soils to aquatic ecosystems. Nonetheless, transport mechanisms of soil-bound Hg in the erosion process have not been explored directly, and how different fractions of soil organic matter (SOM) impact transport is not fully understood. This study investigated transport mechanisms based on rainfall-runoff simulation experiments. The experiments simulated high-intensity and long-duration rainfall conditions, which can produce significant soil erosion and NPS pollution. The enrichment ratio (ER) of total mercury (THg) was the key variable in exploring the mechanisms. The main study findings include the following: First, the ER-sediment flux relationship for Hg depends on soil composition, and no uniform ER-sediment flux function exists for different soils. Second, depending on soil composition, significantly more Hg could be released from a less polluted soil in the early stage of large rainfall events. Third, the heavy fraction of SOM (i.e., the remnant organic matter coating on mineral particles) has a dominant influence on the enrichment behavior and transport mechanisms of Hg, while clay mineral content exhibits a significant, but indirect, influence. The study results imply that it is critical to quantify the SOM composition in addition to total organic carbon (TOC) for different soils in the watershed to adequately model the NPS pollution of Hg and spatially prioritize management actions in a heterogeneous watershed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) technique for rainfall estimation, has recently been developed to meet the shortcomings of the Global Precipitation Index (GPI) technique of rainfall estimation from the data of geostationary satellites; especially for accurate short period rainfall estimates. This study ...

STUDY OF RAINFALL RATES AND EROSIVE PROCESSES AT THE URBAN AREA OF SÃO LUÍS – MA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio José Teixeira Guerra

2005-05-01

Full Text Available The study of the rain rates is here highlighted, in order to understand the mechanisms that generate the starting point of the erosive processes. The precipitation varies spatially not only in local and regional levels, due to mechanisms that generate rains, but also in short distances, due to the control of local variations, such as winds and constructions. In this way, the precipitations should be measured in different points of the study area, depending on the interest of the study and scale of analysis.The erosive process caused by rainfall covers almost the whole terrestrial surface, especially in tropical areas where the total rainfall is higher than in other regions of the planet. Besides that, the rain only falls on specific seasons in several areas, which worsens the erosion. The process tends to accelerate as the deforestation for wood exploitation and/or agricultural production takes place, once the soils become unprotected without the vegetal cover, so that the rains affect the surface of the grounds directly (GUERRA, 1999.This work presents the results of the monitoring of erosive processes along more than three years of studies at the urban area of São Luís City, relating rainfall rates to gullies evolution, an important instrument for the control and recovery of large-scale erosive processes.

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Science.gov (United States)

Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Quaresma, Ivânia

2018-04-01

This work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon region and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, these thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km from the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and potential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events established in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

Prediction of heavy rainfall over Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India: Impact of microphysical parameterization schemes

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, K. S.; Bonthu, Subbareddy; Purvaja, R.; Robin, R. S.; Kannan, B. A. M.; Ramesh, R.

2018-04-01

This study attempts to investigate the real-time prediction of a heavy rainfall event over the Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India that occurred on 01 December 2015 using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The study evaluates the impact of six microphysical (Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Thompson, Morrison and WDM6) parameterization schemes of the model on prediction of heavy rainfall event. In addition, model sensitivity has also been evaluated with six Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and two Land Surface Model (LSM) schemes. Model forecast was carried out using nested domain and the impact of model horizontal grid resolutions were assessed at 9 km, 6 km and 3 km. Analysis of the synoptic features using National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) analysis data revealed strong upper-level divergence and high moisture content at lower level were favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall event over the northeast coast of Tamil Nadu. The study signified that forecasted rainfall was more sensitive to the microphysics and PBL schemes compared to the LSM schemes. The model provided better forecast of the heavy rainfall event using the logical combination of Goddard microphysics, YSU PBL and Noah LSM schemes, and it was mostly attributed to timely initiation and development of the convective system. The forecast with different horizontal resolutions using cumulus parameterization indicated that the rainfall prediction was not well represented at 9 km and 6 km. The forecast with 3 km horizontal resolution provided better prediction in terms of timely initiation and development of the event. The study highlights that forecast of heavy rainfall events using a high-resolution mesoscale model with suitable representations of physical parameterization schemes are useful for disaster management and planning to minimize the potential loss of life and property.

Extreme Rainfall Mechanisms Exhibited by Typhoon Morakot (2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Yuang Huang

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Moderate Typhoon Morakot (2009 became the most catastrophic typhoon in Taiwan on record. The MM5 numerical experiments with and without bogus data assimilation (BDA were used to investigate the extreme rainfall mechanisms in Taiwan associated with the westbound typhoon. The BDA, based on 4DVAR, helps MM5 to maintain a more consolidated typhoon vortex and better predict the observed track after landfall, thus producing realistic extreme rainfall (about 2400 mm at the southern and Central Mountain Range (CMR of Taiwan. Severe rainfall in Taiwan is dominated by the CMR that hence modulates rainfall predictability.

Rainfall and Development of Zika Virus

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2017-11-01

Nov 1, 2017 ... between rainfall and incidence of arbovirus disease such as dengue is well demonstrated (2). For Zika virus an infection, a similar observation can be expected. A recent report from Thailand can also show the expected pattern of the prevalence of Zika virus infection in the areas with high rainfall (3).

A rainfall-based mechanism to regulate the release of water from Ranger uranium mine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carter, M.W.

1989-01-01

The far north of Australia (the Top End) has a monsoon-like climate. This wet-dry climate presents problems in water management for mining operations. These problems are exacerbated for the Ranger uranium mine at Jabiru due to the need to protect the environment of the surrounding Kakadu National Park, particularly the major wetland system downstream of the Ranger mine. An analysis of rainfall records for the wet-dry tropics of the far north of Australia is presented. A probability curve of the ratio between rainfall at a given date and rainfall at the year end, has been produced from actual data and can be used with a normalized curve to set levels of confidence of predicted rainfall being exceeded. The results of this analysis are used to develop a regulatory mechanism to limit release of waste water from a uranium mine to particularly wet years in accordance with the Australian Government's environmental protection policy. 19 refs., 11 tabs., 17 figs

A comprehensive continent-wide regionalisation investigation for daily design rainfall

OpenAIRE

F. Johnson; J. Green

2018-01-01

Study region: Australia. Study focus: Design rainfalls, in the form of Intensity Duration Frequency curves, are the standard input for most flood studies. Methods to combine rainfall data across space are required to provide optimal estimates of design rainfalls and constrain their uncertainty. This paper robustly investigates the use of a variety of regionalization methods to provide Australia wide design rainfall estimates using 8619 high quality rainfall stations. The influence of an indiv...

A simulation-optimization model for Stone column-supported embankment stability considering rainfall effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deb, Kousik; Dhar, Anirban; Purohit, Sandip

2016-01-01

Landslide due to rainfall has been and continues to be one of the most important concerns of geotechnical engineering. The paper presents the variation of factor of safety of stone column-supported embankment constructed over soft soil due to change in water level for an incessant period of rainfall. A combined simulation-optimization based methodology has been proposed to predict the critical surface of failure of the embankment and to optimize the corresponding factor of safety under rainfall conditions using an evolutionary genetic algorithm NSGA-II (Non-Dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm-II). It has been observed that the position of water table can be reliably estimated with varying periods of infiltration using developed numerical method. The parametric study is presented to study the optimum factor of safety of the embankment and its corresponding critical failure surface under the steady-state infiltration condition. Results show that in case of floating stone columns, period of infiltration has no effect on factor of safety. Even critical failure surfaces for a particular floating column length remain same irrespective of rainfall duration

A simulation-optimization model for Stone column-supported embankment stability considering rainfall effect

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deb, Kousik, E-mail: kousik@civil.iitkgp.ernet.in [Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Kharagpur, Kharagpur-721302 (India); Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: anirban@civil.iitkgp.ernet.in [Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Kharagpur, Kharagpur-721302 (India); Purohit, Sandip, E-mail: sandip.purohit91@gmail.com [Former B.Tech Student, Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Rourkela, Rourkela (India)

2016-02-01

Landslide due to rainfall has been and continues to be one of the most important concerns of geotechnical engineering. The paper presents the variation of factor of safety of stone column-supported embankment constructed over soft soil due to change in water level for an incessant period of rainfall. A combined simulation-optimization based methodology has been proposed to predict the critical surface of failure of the embankment and to optimize the corresponding factor of safety under rainfall conditions using an evolutionary genetic algorithm NSGA-II (Non-Dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm-II). It has been observed that the position of water table can be reliably estimated with varying periods of infiltration using developed numerical method. The parametric study is presented to study the optimum factor of safety of the embankment and its corresponding critical failure surface under the steady-state infiltration condition. Results show that in case of floating stone columns, period of infiltration has no effect on factor of safety. Even critical failure surfaces for a particular floating column length remain same irrespective of rainfall duration.

Total oxidant status, total antioxidant capacity and ischemia modified albumin levels in children with celiac disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Sayar, Ersin; Özdem, Sebahat; Uzun, Gülbahar; İşlek, Ali; Yılmaz, Aygen; Artan, Reha

2015-01-01

In our study, we aimed to investigate ischemia modified albumin (IMA) as an oxidative stress marker, as well as other oxidant and antioxidant markers that have not been evaluated in children with celiac disease. A total of 37 pediatric patients who were diagnosed with celiac disease (CD) and 29 healthy children were enrolled in this prospective study. We evaluated the IMA, total oxidant status, total antioxidant capacity, sulfhydryl, and advanced oxidation protein products in all of the subjects. We also compared the levels at the time of the diagnosis, and following a gluten-free diet (GFD) in the children with CD. While the IMA and the other oxidant marker levels were significantly higher in the patient group compared to the control group, the antioxidant marker levels were found to be significantly lower in the patient group, compared to the control group. We also determined that the tissue transglutaminase IgA showed a highly positive correlation, and that the IMA showed a moderately positive correlation with the Marsh-Oberhuber histopathological stage. Additionally, the IMA and other oxidant marker levels were significantly lower, while the antioxidant marker levels were significantly higher after the GFD, compared to the pre-diet period. We detected that oxidative stress played a role in the pathogenesis of CD, and that this could be evaluated using oxidative stress markers, which would regress after the GFD. We also detected that IMA is a marker that shows a correlation with the histopathological stage, and may be used in the diagnosis.

Characteristic and Behavior of Rainfall Induced Landslides in Java Island, Indonesia : an Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Christanto, N.; Hadmoko, D. S.; Westen, C. J.; Lavigne, F.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

2009-04-01

Landslides are important natural hazards occurring on mountainous area situated in the wet tropical climate like in Java, Indonesia. As a central of economic and government activity, Java become the most populated island in Indonesia and is increasing every year. This condition create population more vulnerable to hazard. Java is populated by 120 million inhabitants or equivalent with 60% of Indonesian population in only 6,9% of the total surface of Indonesia. Due to its geological setting, its topographical characteristics, and its climatic characteristics, Java is the most exposed regions to landslide hazard and closely related to several factors: (1) located on a subduction zone, 60% of Java is mountainous, with volcano-tectonic mountain chains and 36 active volcanoes out of the 129 in Indonesia, and these volcanic materials are intensively weathered (2) Java is under a humid tropical climate associated with heavy rainfall during the rainy season from October to April. On top of these "natural" conditions, the human activity is an additional factor of landslide occurrence, driven by a high demographic density The purpose of this paper was to collect and analyze spatial and temporal data concerning landslide hazard for the period 1981-2007 and to evaluate and analyze the characteristic and the behavior of landslide in Java. The results provides a new insight into our understanding of landslide hazard and characteristic in the humid tropics, and a basis for predicting future landslides and assessing related hazards at a regional scale. An overview of characteristic and behavior of landslides in Java is given. The result of this work would be valuable for decision makers and communities in the frame of future landslide risk reduction programs. Landslide inventory data was collected from internal database at the different institutions. The result is then georefenced. The temporal changes of landslide activities was done by examining the changes in number and

Interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast of South Africa linked to cut-off low associated rainfall

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, CJ

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The influence of cut-off low (COL) associated rainfall on interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast region of South Africa for the period 1979-2011 is investigated. COLs are objectively identified and tracked on daily average 500 h...

prediction of rainfall in the southern highlands of tanzania

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

distribution at different places in the world. A study to ... climate indices influence rainfall. It has been observed .... Table 4: Summary of Predictors entered MLR and PCR models for MAM and OND rainfalls. .... from the cumulus clouds; rainfall is.

Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

Science.gov (United States)

Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

2017-09-01

The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

Comparison of Adaline and Multiple Linear Regression Methods for Rainfall Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Sutawinaya, IP; Astawa, INGA; Hariyanti, NKD

2018-01-01

Heavy rainfall can cause disaster, therefore need a forecast to predict rainfall intensity. Main factor that cause flooding is there is a high rainfall intensity and it makes the river become overcapacity. This will cause flooding around the area. Rainfall factor is a dynamic factor, so rainfall is very interesting to be studied. In order to support the rainfall forecasting, there are methods that can be used from Artificial Intelligence (AI) to statistic. In this research, we used Adaline for AI method and Regression for statistic method. The more accurate forecast result shows the method that used is good for forecasting the rainfall. Through those methods, we expected which is the best method for rainfall forecasting here.

Nitrogen transformations in response to temperature and rainfall manipulation in oak savanna: A global change experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Wellman, R. L.; Boutton, T. W.; Tjoelker, M. G.; Volder, A.; Briske, D. D.

2013-12-01

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are projected to elevate global surface air temperatures by 1.1 to 6.4°C by the end of the century, and potentially magnify the intensity and variability of seasonal precipitation distribution. The mid-latitude grasslands of North America are predicted to experience substantial modification in precipitation regimes, with a shift towards drier summers and wetter spring and fall seasons. Despite these predictions, little is known concerning the effects of these global climate change drivers or their potential interactive effects on nitrogen (N) cycling processes. The purpose of this study is to quantify seasonal variation in rates of N-mineralization, nitrification, and N-losses via leaching in soil subjected to experimental warming and rainfall manipulation. Research was conducted at the Texas A&M Warming and Rainfall Manipulation (WaRM) Site in College Station where eight 9x18m rainout shelters and two unsheltered controls were established in post oak savanna in 2003. Replicate annual rainfall redistribution treatments (n = 4) are applied at the shelter level (long term mean vs. 40% of summer redistributed to fall and spring with same annual total). Warming treatments (ambient vs. 24-hr IR canopy warming of 1-3°C) were applied to planted monocultures of juniper and little bluestem, and a juniper-grass combination. Both juniper and little bluestem are key species within the post oak savanna region. Plots were sampled from the full factorial design during years six and seven of the WaRM experiment. Soil N-mineralization, nitrification, and N-losses via leaching were assessed quarterly for two years using the resin core incubation method. Rainfall, species composition, and time interacted significantly to influence both ammonification and nitrification. Highest rates of ammonification (0.115 mg NH4+ -N/ kg soil/day) occurred in grass monocultures during summer in the control rainfall plots, whereas highest rates of

Duration-frequency relationships of heavy rainfall in Santa Catarina, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Álvaro José Back

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to adjust equations that establish relationships between rainfall events with different duration and data from weather stations in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. In this study, the relationships between different duration heavy rainfalls from 13 weather stations of Santa Catarina were analyzed. From series of maximum annual rainfalls, and using the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall for durations between 5 min and 24 h were estimated considering return periods from 2 to 100 years. The data fit to the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at 5 % significance. The coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted to estimate the relationship between rainfall duration t (min and the return period T (y in relation to the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 hour and a 10 year return period. Likewise, the coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted based on the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 day and a 10 year return period. The results showed that these relationships are viable to estimate short-duration rainfall events at locations where there are no rainfall records.

Modifying rainfall patterns in a Mediterranean shrubland: system design, plant responses, and experimental burning.

Science.gov (United States)

Parra, Antonio; Ramírez, David A; Resco, Víctor; Velasco, Ángel; Moreno, José M

2012-11-01

Global warming is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the Mediterranean region, as well as the occurrence of large fires. Understanding the interactions between drought, fire and plant responses is therefore important. In this study, we present an experiment in which rainfall patterns were modified to simulate various levels of drought in a Mediterranean shrubland of central Spain dominated by Cistus ladanifer, Erica arborea and Phillyrea angustifolia. A system composed of automatic rainout shelters with an irrigation facility was used. It was designed to be applied in vegetation 2 m tall, treat relatively large areas (36 m2), and be quickly dismantled to perform experimental burning and reassembled back again. Twenty plots were subjected to four rainfall treatments from early spring: natural rainfall, long-term average rainfall (2 months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction from long-term rainfall, 5 months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7 months drought). The plots were burned in late summer, without interfering with rainfall manipulations. Results indicated that rainfall manipulations caused differences in soil moisture among treatments, leading to reduced water availability and growth of C. ladanifer and E. arborea in the drought treatments. However, P. angustifolia was not affected by the manipulations. Rainout shelters had a negligible impact on plot microenvironment. Experimental burns were of high fire intensity, without differences among treatments. Our system provides a tool to study the combined effects of drought and fire on vegetation, which is important to assess the threats posed by climate change in Mediterranean environments.

Persistent after-effects of heavy rain on concentrations of ice nuclei and rainfall suggest a biological cause

Science.gov (United States)

Bigg, E. K.; Soubeyrand, S.; Morris, C. E.

2015-03-01

Rainfall is one of the most important aspects of climate, but the extent to which atmospheric ice nuclei (IN) influence its formation, quantity, frequency, and location is not clear. Microorganisms and other biological particles are released following rainfall and have been shown to serve as efficient IN, in turn impacting cloud and precipitation formation. Here we investigated potential long-term effects of IN on rainfall frequency and quantity. Differences in IN concentrations and rainfall after and before days of large rainfall accumulation (i.e., key days) were calculated for measurements made over the past century in southeastern and southwestern Australia. Cumulative differences in IN concentrations and daily rainfall quantity and frequency as a function of days from a key day demonstrated statistically significant increasing logarithmic trends (R2 > 0.97). Based on observations that cumulative effects of rainfall persisted for about 20 days, we calculated cumulative differences for the entire sequence of key days at each site to create a historical record of how the differences changed with time. Comparison of pre-1960 and post-1960 sequences most commonly showed smaller rainfall totals in the post-1960 sequences, particularly in regions downwind from coal-fired power stations. This led us to explore the hypothesis that the increased leaf surface populations of IN-active bacteria due to rain led to a sustained but slowly diminishing increase in atmospheric concentrations of IN that could potentially initiate or augment rainfall. This hypothesis is supported by previous research showing that leaf surface populations of the ice-nucleating bacterium Pseudomonas syringae increased by orders of magnitude after heavy rain and that microorganisms become airborne during and after rain in a forest ecosystem. At the sites studied in this work, aerosols that could have initiated rain from sources unrelated to previous rainfall events (such as power stations) would

Rainfall-threshold conditions for landslides in a humid-tropical system

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Matthew C.; Simon, Andrew

1993-01-01

Landslides are triggered by factors such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, and construction on hillslopes. The leading cause of landslides in Puerto Rico is intense and/or prolonged rainfall. A rainfall threshold for rainfall-triggered landsliding is delimited by 256 storms that occurred between 1959 and 1991 in the central mountains of Puerto Rico, where mean annual rainfall is close to or in excess of 2,000 mm. Forty one of the 256 storms produced intense and/or prolonged rainfall that resulted in tens to hundreds of landslides. A threshold fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering storms is expressed as

The rainfall plot: its motivation, characteristics and pitfalls.

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Domanska, Diana; Vodák, Daniel; Lund-Andersen, Christin; Salvatore, Stefania; Hovig, Eivind; Sandve, Geir Kjetil

2017-05-18

A visualization referred to as rainfall plot has recently gained popularity in genome data analysis. The plot is mostly used for illustrating the distribution of somatic cancer mutations along a reference genome, typically aiming to identify mutation hotspots. In general terms, the rainfall plot can be seen as a scatter plot showing the location of events on the x-axis versus the distance between consecutive events on the y-axis. Despite its frequent use, the motivation for applying this particular visualization and the appropriateness of its usage have never been critically addressed in detail. We show that the rainfall plot allows visual detection even for events occurring at high frequency over very short distances. In addition, event clustering at multiple scales may be detected as distinct horizontal bands in rainfall plots. At the same time, due to the limited size of standard figures, rainfall plots might suffer from inability to distinguish overlapping events, especially when multiple datasets are plotted in the same figure. We demonstrate the consequences of plot congestion, which results in obscured visual data interpretations. This work provides the first comprehensive survey of the characteristics and proper usage of rainfall plots. We find that the rainfall plot is able to convey a large amount of information without any need for parameterization or tuning. However, we also demonstrate how plot congestion and the use of a logarithmic y-axis may result in obscured visual data interpretations. To aid the productive utilization of rainfall plots, we demonstrate their characteristics and potential pitfalls using both simulated and real data, and provide a set of practical guidelines for their proper interpretation and usage.

Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

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Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.

2017-07-01

Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

Statistical determination of rainfall-runoff erosivity indices for single storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau.

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Mingguo Zheng

Full Text Available Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng's tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I20, EI10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I10, EI20 and EI30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations.

Statistical Determination of Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Indices for Single Storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau

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Zheng, Mingguo; Chen, Xiaoan

2015-01-01

Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng’s tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I 30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity) has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I 30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I 20, EI 10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I 10), EI 20 and EI 30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area) is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I 30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations. PMID

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

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Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness.

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James F Saracco

Full Text Available Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI] to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons, bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus, and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei. Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness; while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the

Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling

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F. Garavaglia

2010-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a probabilistic model for daily rainfall, using sub-sampling based on meteorological circulation. We classified eight typical but contrasted synoptic situations (weather patterns for France and surrounding areas, using a "bottom-up" approach, i.e. from the shape of the rain field to the synoptic situations described by geopotential fields. These weather patterns (WP provide a discriminating variable that is consistent with French climatology, and allows seasonal rainfall records to be split into more homogeneous sub-samples, in term of meteorological genesis.

First results show how the combination of seasonal and WP sub-sampling strongly influences the identification of the asymptotic behaviour of rainfall probabilistic models. Furthermore, with this level of stratification, an asymptotic exponential behaviour of each sub-sample appears as a reasonable hypothesis. This first part is illustrated with two daily rainfall records from SE of France.

The distribution of the multi-exponential weather patterns (MEWP is then defined as the composition, for a given season, of all WP sub-sample marginal distributions, weighted by the relative frequency of occurrence of each WP. This model is finally compared to Exponential and Generalized Pareto distributions, showing good features in terms of robustness and accuracy. These final statistical results are computed from a wide dataset of 478 rainfall chronicles spread on the southern half of France. All these data cover the 1953–2005 period.

Rainfall Interception in Mangrove in the Southeastern Coast of Brazil

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Emerson Galvani

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Mangroves are among the ecosystems biologically more productive and important in the world, providing unique goods and services to societies and coastal systems. These areas, however, are increasingly fragmented, contributing to the loss of their services and benefits. The rains have an important influence in this ecosystem is central to the dissolution of sea salts. This study investigated the total rainfall in the mangroves located in the Coastal System Cananeia-Iguape (SP at different time scales (daily, monthly, sea-sonal and annual and its interception by the mangrove canopy. It found an intercept of 8.8%, ranging from 13% to 4% in the annual scale, showing that the annual variation of rainfall, which reflects both its quantity and its intensity contributes to the percentage of that interception by the canopy. It was also found that as the intensity of precipitation increases, trapping the mangrove canopy reduces.

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

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Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Quaresma, Ivânia

2017-04-01

Rainfall is one of the most important triggering factors for landslides occurrence worldwide. The relation between rainfall and landslide occurrence is complex and some approaches have been focus on the rainfall thresholds identification, i.e., rainfall critical values that when exceeded can initiate landslide activity. In line with these approaches, this work proposes and validates rainfall thresholds for the Lisbon region (Portugal), using a centenary landslide database associated with a centenary daily rainfall database. The main objectives of the work are the following: i) to compute antecedent rainfall thresholds using linear and potential regression; ii) to define lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds; iii) to estimate the probability of critical rainfall conditions associated with landslide events; and iv) to assess the thresholds performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. In this study we consider the DISASTER database, which lists landslides that caused fatalities, injuries, missing people, evacuated and homeless people occurred in Portugal from 1865 to 2010. The DISASTER database was carried out exploring several Portuguese daily and weekly newspapers. Using the same newspaper sources, the DISASTER database was recently updated to include also the landslides that did not caused any human damage, which were also considered for this study. The daily rainfall data were collected at the Lisboa-Geofísico meteorological station. This station was selected considering the quality and completeness of the rainfall data, with records that started in 1864. The methodology adopted included the computation, for each landslide event, of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for different durations (1 to 90 consecutive days). In a second step, for each combination of rainfall quantity-duration, the return period was estimated using the Gumbel probability distribution. The pair (quantity-duration) with the highest return period was

A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

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Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

2017-12-01

The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

Hydrologic conditions and water quality of rainfall and storm runoff for two agricultural areas of the Oso Creek watershed, Nueces County, Texas, 2005-08

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Ockerman, Darwin J.; Fernandez, Carlos J.

2010-01-01

-year study period averaged 2.62 pounds per acre per year from the West Oso Creek subwatershed and 0.839 pound per acre per year from the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. Total phosphorus yields from the West Oso Creek and Oso Creek tributary subwatersheds for the 3-year period were 0.644 and 0.419 pound per acre per year, respectively. Runoff yields of nitrogen and phosphorus were relatively small compared to inputs of nitrogen in fertilizer and rainfall deposition. Average annual runoff yield of total nitrogen (subwatersheds combined) represents about 2.5 percent of nitrogen applied as fertilizer to cropland in the watershed and nitrogen entering the subwatersheds through rainfall deposition. Average annual runoff yield of total phosphorus (subwatersheds combined) represents about 4.0 percent of the phosphorus in applied fertilizer and rainfall deposition. Suspended-sediment yields from the West Oso Creek subwatershed were more than twice those from the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. The average suspended-sediment yield from the West Oso Creek subwatershed was 522 pounds per acre per year and from the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed was 139 pounds per acre per year. Twenty-four herbicides and eight insecticides were detected in runoff samples collected at the two subwatershed outlets. At the West Oso Creek site, 19 herbicides and 4 insecticides were detected; at the Oso Creek tributary site, 18 herbicides and 6 insecticides were detected. Fourteen pesticides were detected in only one sample at low concentrations (near the laboratory reporting level). Atrazine and atrazine degradation byproduct 2-chloro-4-isopropylamino-6-amino-s-triazine (CIAT) were detected in all samples. Glyphosate and glyphosate byproduct aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) were detected in all samples collected and analyzed during water years 2006-07 but were not included in analysis for samples collected in water year 2008. Of all pesticides detected in runoff, the highest runoff yields w

Determination of Areas Susceptible to Landsliding Using Spatial Patterns of Rainfall from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Data, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

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Renato Fontes Guimarães

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Spatial patterns of shallow landslide initiation reflect both spatial patterns of heavy rainfall and areas susceptible to mass movements. We determine the areas most susceptible to shallow landslide occurrence through the calculation of critical soil cohesion and spatial patterns of rainfall derived from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data for Paraty County, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Our methodology involved: (a creating the digital elevation model (DEM and deriving attributes such as slope and contributing area; (b incorporating spatial patterns of rainfall derived from TRMM into the shallow slope stability model SHALSTAB; and (c quantitative assessment of the correspondence of mapped landslide scars to areas predicted to be most prone to shallow landsliding. We found that around 70% of the landslide scars occurred in less than 10% of the study area identified as potentially unstable. The greatest concentration of landslides occurred in areas where the root strength of vegetation is an important contribution to slope stability in regions of orographically-enhanced rainfall on the coastal topographic flank. This approach helps quantify landslide hazards in areas with similar geomorphological characteristics, but different spatial patterns of rainfall.

A space-time rainfall generator for highly convective Mediterranean rainstorms

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S. Salsón

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Distributed hydrological models require fine resolution rainfall inputs, enhancing the practical interest of space-time rainfall models, capable of generating through numerical simulation realistic space-time rainfall intensity fields. Among different mathematical approaches, those based on point processes and built upon a convenient analytical description of the raincell as the fundamental unit, have shown to be particularly suitable and well adapted when extreme rainfall events of convective nature are considered. Starting from previous formulations, some analytical refinements have been considered, allowing practical generation of space-time rainfall intensity fields for that type of rainstorm events. Special attention is placed on the analytical description of the spatial and temporal evolution of the rainfall intensities produced by the raincells. After deriving the necessary analytical results, the seven parameters of the model have been estimated by the method of moments, for each of the 30 selected rainfall events in the Jucar River Basin (ValenciaSpain – period 1991 to 2000, using 5-min aggregated rainfall data series from an automatic raingauge network.

Rainfall and crop modeling-based water stress assessment for rainfed maize cultivation in peninsular India

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Manivasagam, V. S.; Nagarajan, R.

2018-04-01

Water stress due to uneven rainfall distribution causes a significant impact on the agricultural production of monsoon-dependent peninsular India. In the present study, water stress assessment for rainfed maize crop is carried out for kharif (June-October) and rabi (October-February) cropping seasons which coincide with two major Indian monsoons. Rainfall analysis (1976-2010) shows that the kharif season receives sufficient weekly rainfall (28 ± 32 mm) during 26th-39th standard meteorological weeks (SMWs) from southwest monsoon, whereas the rabi season experiences a major portion of its weekly rainfall due to northeast monsoon between the 42nd and 51st SMW (31 ± 42 mm). The later weeks experience minimal rainfall (5.5 ± 15 mm) and thus expose the late sown maize crops to a severe water stress during its maturity stage. Wet and dry spell analyses reveal a substantial increase in the rainfall intensity over the last few decades. However, the distribution of rainfall shows a striking decrease in the number of wet spells, with prolonged dry spells in both seasons. Weekly rainfall classification shows that the flowering and maturity stages of kharif maize (33rd-39th SMWs) can suffer around 30-40% of the total water stress. In the case of rabi maize, the analysis reveals that a shift in the sowing time from the existing 42nd SMW (16-22 October) to the 40th SMW (1-7 October) can avoid terminal water stress. Further, AquaCrop modeling results show that one or two minimal irrigations during the flowering and maturity stages (33rd-39th SMWs) of kharif maize positively avoid the mild water stress exposure. Similarly, rabi maize requires an additional two or three lifesaving irrigations during its flowering and maturity stages (48th-53rd SMWs) to improve productivity. Effective crop planning with appropriate sowing time, short duration crop, and high yielding drought-resistant varieties will allow for better utilization of the monsoon rain, thus reducing water stress with

Apply data mining to analyze the rainfall of landslide

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Lee Chou-Yuan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Taiwan is listed as extremely dangerous country which suffers from many disasters. The disasters from the landslide result in the loss of agricultural productions, life and property and so on. Many researchers concern about the disasters of landslide, but there are few discussions for the threshold of rainfall for landslide. In this paper, data mining is applied to establish rules and the threshold of rainfall for landslide in Huafan University, Taiwan. These used variables include rainfall, insolation, insolation rate, averaged humidity, averaged temperature, wind speed, and the tilt of inclinometer. The inclinometer is an important instrument for measuring tilt, elevation or depression of an object with respect to gravity. There are 26 inclinometers in Talun mountain area of Huafan University. In this research, the used data were collected from January 2008 to July 2014. In the proposed approach, the regression analysis is used to predict rainfall first. Then, decision tree is used to obtain decision rules and set the threshold of rainfall for landslide. The output of this approach can provide more information for understanding the change of rainfall. The threshold of rainfall could also provide useful information to maintain the security for Huafan University.

Toward Continental-scale Rainfall Monitoring Using Commercial Microwave Links From Cellular Communication Networks

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Uijlenhoet, R.; Leijnse, H.; Overeem, A.

2017-12-01

Accurate and timely surface precipitation measurements are crucial for water resources management, agriculture, weather prediction, climate research, as well as ground validation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks such data, and in many parts of the world the density of surface precipitation gauging networks is even rapidly declining. This development can potentially be counteracted by using received signal level data from the enormous number of microwave links used worldwide in commercial cellular communication networks. Along such links, radio signals propagate from a transmitting antenna at one base station to a receiving antenna at another base station. Rain-induced attenuation and, subsequently, path-averaged rainfall intensity can be retrieved from the signal's attenuation between transmitter and receiver. We have previously shown how one such a network can be used to retrieve the space-time dynamics of rainfall for an entire country (The Netherlands, ˜35,500 km2), based on an unprecedented number of links (˜2,400) and a rainfall retrieval algorithm that can be applied in real time. This demonstrated the potential of such networks for real-time rainfall monitoring, in particular in those parts of the world where networks of dedicated ground-based rainfall sensors are often virtually absent. The presentation will focus on the potential for upscaling this technique to continental-scale rainfall monitoring in Europe. In addition, several examples of recent applications of this technique on other continents (South America, Africa, Asia and Australia) will be given.

Predicting rainfall erosivity by momentum and kinetic energy in Mediterranean environment

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Carollo, Francesco G.; Ferro, Vito; Serio, Maria A.

2018-05-01

Rainfall erosivity is an index that describes the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion and it is used around the world for assessing and predicting soil loss on agricultural lands. Erosivity can be represented in terms of both rainfall momentum and kinetic energy, both calculated per unit time and area. Contrasting results on the representativeness of these two variables are available: some authors stated that momentum and kinetic energy are practically interchangeable in soil loss estimation while other found that kinetic energy is the most suitable expression of rainfall erosivity. The direct and continuous measurements of momentum and kinetic energy by a disdrometer allow also to establish a relationship with rainfall intensity at the study site. At first in this paper a comparison between the momentum-rainfall intensity relationships measured at Palermo and El Teularet by an optical disdrometer is presented. For a fixed rainfall intensity the measurements showed that the rainfall momentum values measured at the two experimental sites are not coincident. However both datasets presented a threshold value of rainfall intensity over which the rainfall momentum assumes a quasi-constant value. Then the reliability of a theoretically deduced relationship, linking momentum, rainfall intensity and median volume diameter, is positively verified using measured raindrop size distributions. An analysis to assess which variable, momentum or kinetic energy per unit area and time, is the best predictor of erosivity in Italy and Spain was also carried out. This investigation highlighted that the rainfall kinetic energy per unit area and time can be substituted by rainfall momentum as index for estimating the rainfall erosivity, and this result does not depend on the site where precipitation occurs. Finally, rainfall intensity measurements and soil loss data collected from the bare plots equipped at Sparacia experimental area were used to verify the reliability of some

Rainfall over the African continent from the 19th through the 21st century

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Nicholson, Sharon E.; Funk, Chris; Fink, Andreas H.

2018-06-01

Most of the African continent is semi-arid and hence prone to extreme variations in rainfall from year to year. The extreme droughts that have plagued the Sahel and eastern Africa are particularly well known. This article uses a markedly expanded and updated rainfall data set to examine rainfall variability in 13 sectors that cover most of the continent. Annual rainfall is presented for each sector; the March-to-May and October-November seasons are also examined for equatorial sectors. In each case, the article includes the longest and most comprehensive precipitation gauge series ever published. All time series cover at least a century and most cover roughly one and one-half centuries or more. Although towards the end of the 20th century there was a widespread trend towards more arid conditions, few significant trends are evident over the entire period of record. The largest were downward trends in the Sahel and western sectors of North Africa. In those regions, an abrupt reduction in rainfall occurred around 1968, but a synchronous change occurred many other parts of Africa. A recovery did occur in the Sahel, but to varying degrees across the east-west expanse of the region. Noteworthy is that the west-to-east rainfall gradient across the region appears to have weakened in recent decades. For the continent as a whole, another change began in the 1980s decade, with more arid conditions persisting at the continental scale until early in the twenty-first century. No other such period of dry conditions occurred within the roughly one and one-half centuries evaluated here. A notable change also occurred at the seasonal level. During the period 1980 to 1998 rainfall during March-to-May was well below the long-term mean throughout most of the area from 20° N to 35° S. At the same time rainfall was above the long-term mean in most of eastern sectors within this latitude span, indicating a change in the seasonality of rainfall of a large part of Africa.

Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

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Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

Rainfall simulation experiments in the southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator

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Polyakov, Viktor; Stone, Jeffry; Holifield Collins, Chandra; Nearing, Mark A.; Paige, Ginger; Buono, Jared; Gomez-Pond, Rae-Landa

2018-01-01

This dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semiarid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30 % of the plots, simulations were conducted up to five times during the decade of study. The rainfall was generated using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots. Simulation sites included brush and grassland areas with various degrees of disturbance by grazing, wildfire, or brush removal. This dataset advances our understanding of basic hydrological and biological processes that drive soil erosion on arid rangelands. It can be used to estimate runoff, infiltration, and erosion rates at a variety of ecological sites in the Southwestern USA. The inclusion of wildfire and brush treatment locations combined with long-term observations makes it important for studying vegetation recovery, ecological transitions, and the effect of management. It is also a valuable resource for erosion model parameterization and validation. The dataset is available from the National Agricultural Library at https://data.nal.usda.gov/search/type/dataset (DOI: https://doi.org/10.15482/USDA.ADC/1358583).

Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

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Murla Tuyls, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren

2017-04-01

Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g. DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized catchment area of 440ha and 10.400inhab. located in Jutland (Denmark), which has received the impact of several pluvial flooding in the last recent years. A historical rainfall dataset from the last 35 years from two different rain gauges located at 2 and 10 km from the study area has been provided by the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The most extreme 25 rainfall events have been selected through a two-step multi-criteria procedure, ensuring an adequate variability of rainfall, from extreme high peak storms with a short duration to moderate rainfall with longer duration. In addition, a coupled 1D/2D surface and network UDS model of the catchment area developed in an integrated MIKE URBAN and MIKE Flood model (DHI 2014), considering both permeable and impermeable areas, in combination with a DTM (2x2m res.) has been used to study and assess in detail flood RP. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall RP and flood response. Local flood levels, flood area and volume RP estimates should therefore not be neglected in

Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India