Tail Risk Constraints and Maximum Entropy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donald Geman

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Portfolio selection in the financial literature has essentially been analyzed under two central assumptions: full knowledge of the joint probability distribution of the returns of the securities that will comprise the target portfolio; and investors’ preferences are expressed through a utility function. In the real world, operators build portfolios under risk constraints which are expressed both by their clients and regulators and which bear on the maximal loss that may be generated over a given time period at a given confidence level (the so-called Value at Risk of the position. Interestingly, in the finance literature, a serious discussion of how much or little is known from a probabilistic standpoint about the multi-dimensional density of the assets’ returns seems to be of limited relevance. Our approach in contrast is to highlight these issues and then adopt throughout a framework of entropy maximization to represent the real world ignorance of the “true” probability distributions, both univariate and multivariate, of traded securities’ returns. In this setting, we identify the optimal portfolio under a number of downside risk constraints. Two interesting results are exhibited: (i the left- tail constraints are sufficiently powerful to override all other considerations in the conventional theory; (ii the “barbell portfolio” (maximal certainty/ low risk in one set of holdings, maximal uncertainty in another, which is quite familiar to traders, naturally emerges in our construction.

25(OHD3 Levels Relative to Muscle Strength and Maximum Oxygen Uptake in Athletes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Książek Anna

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Vitamin D is mainly known for its effects on the bone and calcium metabolism. The discovery of Vitamin D receptors in many extraskeletal cells suggests that it may also play a significant role in other organs and systems. The aim of our study was to assess the relationship between 25(OHD3 levels, lower limb isokinetic strength and maximum oxygen uptake in well-trained professional football players. We enrolled 43 Polish premier league soccer players. The mean age was 22.7±5.3 years. Our study showed decreased serum 25(OHD3 levels in 74.4% of the professional players. The results also demonstrated a lack of statistically significant correlation between 25(OHD3 levels and lower limb muscle strength with the exception of peak torque of the left knee extensors at an angular velocity of 150°/s (r=0.41. No significant correlations were found between hand grip strength and maximum oxygen uptake. Based on our study we concluded that in well-trained professional soccer players, there was no correlation between serum levels of 25(OHD3 and muscle strength or maximum oxygen uptake.

The Influence of Red Fruit Oil on Creatin Kinase Level at Maximum Physical Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Apollo Sinaga, Fajar; Hotliber Purba, Pangondian

2018-03-01

Heavy physical activities can cause the oxidative stress which resulting in muscle damage with an indicator of elevated levels of Creatin Kinase (CK) enzyme. The oxidative stress can be prevented or reduced by antioxidant supplementation. One of natural resources which contain antioxidant is Red Fruit (Pandanus conoideus) Oil (RFO). This study aims to see the effect of Red Fruit Oil on Creatin Kinase (CK) level at maximum physical activity. This study is an experimental research by using the design of randomized control group pretest-posttest. This study was using 24 male mice divided into four groups, the control group was given aquadest, the treatment groups P1, P2, and P3 were given the RFO orally of 0.15 ml/kgBW, 0.3 ml/kgBW, and 0.6 ml/kgBW, respectively, for a month. The level of CK was checked for all groups at the beginning of study and after the maximum physical activity. The obtained data were then tested statistically by using t-test and ANOVA. The result shows the RFO supplementation during exercise decreased the CK level in P1, P2, and P3 groups with p<0.05, and the higher RFO dosage resulted in decreased CK level at p<0.05. The conclusion of this study is the Red Fruit Oil could decrease the level of CK at maximum physical activity.

A Stochastic Maximum Principle for Risk-Sensitive Mean-Field Type Control

KAUST Repository

Djehiche, Boualem; Tembine, Hamidou; Tempone, Raul

2015-01-01

In this paper we study mean-field type control problems with risk-sensitive performance functionals. We establish a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) for optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of mean-field type, in which the drift and the diffusion coefficients as well as the performance functional depend not only on the state and the control but also on the mean of the distribution of the state. Our result extends the risk-sensitive SMP (without mean-field coupling) of Lim and Zhou (2005), derived for feedback (or Markov) type optimal controls, to optimal control problems for non-Markovian dynamics which may be time-inconsistent in the sense that the Bellman optimality principle does not hold. In our approach to the risk-sensitive SMP, the smoothness assumption on the value-function imposed in Lim and Zhou (2005) needs not be satisfied. For a general action space a Peng's type SMP is derived, specifying the necessary conditions for optimality. Two examples are carried out to illustrate the proposed risk-sensitive mean-field type SMP under linear stochastic dynamics with exponential quadratic cost function. Explicit solutions are given for both mean-field free and mean-field models.

A Stochastic Maximum Principle for Risk-Sensitive Mean-Field Type Control

KAUST Repository

Djehiche, Boualem

2015-02-24

In this paper we study mean-field type control problems with risk-sensitive performance functionals. We establish a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) for optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of mean-field type, in which the drift and the diffusion coefficients as well as the performance functional depend not only on the state and the control but also on the mean of the distribution of the state. Our result extends the risk-sensitive SMP (without mean-field coupling) of Lim and Zhou (2005), derived for feedback (or Markov) type optimal controls, to optimal control problems for non-Markovian dynamics which may be time-inconsistent in the sense that the Bellman optimality principle does not hold. In our approach to the risk-sensitive SMP, the smoothness assumption on the value-function imposed in Lim and Zhou (2005) needs not be satisfied. For a general action space a Peng\\'s type SMP is derived, specifying the necessary conditions for optimality. Two examples are carried out to illustrate the proposed risk-sensitive mean-field type SMP under linear stochastic dynamics with exponential quadratic cost function. Explicit solutions are given for both mean-field free and mean-field models.

An Iterative Maximum a Posteriori Estimation of Proficiency Level to Detect Multiple Local Likelihood Maxima

Science.gov (United States)

Magis, David; Raiche, Gilles

2010-01-01

In this article the authors focus on the issue of the nonuniqueness of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator of proficiency level in item response theory (with special attention to logistic models). The usual maximum a posteriori (MAP) method offers a good alternative within that framework; however, this article highlights some drawbacks of its…

Multi-level restricted maximum likelihood covariance estimation and kriging for large non-gridded spatial datasets

KAUST Repository

Castrillon, Julio; Genton, Marc G.; Yokota, Rio

2015-01-01

We develop a multi-level restricted Gaussian maximum likelihood method for estimating the covariance function parameters and computing the best unbiased predictor. Our approach produces a new set of multi-level contrasts where the deterministic

Sound pressure levels generated at risk volume steps of portable listening devices: types of smartphone and genres of music.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Gibbeum; Han, Woojae

2018-05-01

The present study estimated the sound pressure levels of various music genres at the volume steps that contemporary smartphones deliver, because these levels put the listener at potential risk for hearing loss. Using six different smartphones (Galaxy S6, Galaxy Note 3, iPhone 5S, iPhone 6, LG G2, and LG G3), the sound pressure levels for three genres of K-pop music (dance-pop, hip-hop, and pop-ballad) and a Billboard pop chart of assorted genres were measured through an earbud for the first risk volume that was at the risk sign proposed by the smartphones, as well as consecutive higher volumes using a sound level meter and artificial mastoid. The first risk volume step of the Galaxy S6 and the LG G2, among the six smartphones, had the significantly lowest (84.1 dBA) and highest output levels (92.4 dBA), respectively. As the volume step increased, so did the sound pressure levels. The iPhone 6 was loudest (113.1 dBA) at the maximum volume step. Of the music genres, dance-pop showed the highest output level (91.1 dBA) for all smartphones. Within the frequency range of 20~ 20,000 Hz, the sound pressure level peaked at 2000 Hz for all the smartphones. The results showed that the sound pressure levels of either the first volume step or the maximum volume step were not the same for the different smartphone models and genres of music, which means that the risk volume sign and its output levels should be unified across the devices for their users. In addition, the risk volume steps proposed by the latest smartphone models are high enough to cause noise-induced hearing loss if their users habitually listen to music at those levels.

Design Life Level: Quantifying risk in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Rootzén, Holger; Katz, Richard W.

2013-09-01

In the past, the concepts of return levels and return periods have been standard and important tools for engineering design. However, these concepts are based on the assumption of a stationary climate and do not apply to a changing climate, whether local or global. In this paper, we propose a refined concept, Design Life Level, which quantifies risk in a nonstationary climate and can serve as the basis for communication. In current practice, typical hydrologic risk management focuses on a standard (e.g., in terms of a high quantile corresponding to the specified probability of failure for a single year). Nevertheless, the basic information needed for engineering design should consist of (i) the design life period (e.g., the next 50 years, say 2015-2064); and (ii) the probability (e.g., 5% chance) of a hazardous event (typically, in the form of the hydrologic variable exceeding a high level) occurring during the design life period. Capturing both of these design characteristics, the Design Life Level is defined as an upper quantile (e.g., 5%) of the distribution of the maximum value of the hydrologic variable (e.g., water level) over the design life period. We relate this concept and variants of it to existing literature and illustrate how they, and some useful complementary plots, may be computed and used. One practically important consideration concerns quantifying the statistical uncertainty in estimating a high quantile under nonstationarity.

Maximum tumor diameter is not an independent prognostic factor in high-risk localized prostate cancer

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oort, van I.M.; Witjes, J.A.; Kok, D.E.G.; Kiemeney, L.A.; Hulsbergen-van de Kaa, C.A.

2008-01-01

Previous studies suggest that maximum tumor diameter (MTD) is a predictor of recurrence in prostate cancer (PC). This study investigates the prognostic value of MTD for biochemical recurrence (BCR) in patients with PC, after radical prostatectomy (RP), with emphasis on high-risk localized prostate

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 10 Appendix I - Historical Evaporation.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 8 Appendix G - Historical Precipitation.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

Methodology to estimate the cost of the severe accidents risk / maximum benefit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendoza, G.; Flores, R. M.; Vega, E.

2016-09-01

For programs and activities to manage aging effects, any changes to plant operations, inspections, maintenance activities, systems and administrative control procedures during the renewal period should be characterized, designed to manage the effects of aging as required by 10 Cfr Part 54 that could impact the environment. Environmental impacts significantly different from those described in the final environmental statement for the current operating license should be described in detail. When complying with the requirements of a license renewal application, the Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis is contained in a supplement to the environmental report of the plant that meets the requirements of 10 Cfr Part 51. In this paper, the methodology for estimating the cost of severe accidents risk is established and discussed, which is then used to identify and select the alternatives for severe accident mitigation, which are analyzed to estimate the maximum benefit that an alternative could achieve if this eliminate all risk. Using the regulatory analysis techniques of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates the cost of severe accidents risk. The ultimate goal of implementing the methodology is to identify candidates for SAMA that have the potential to reduce the severe accidents risk and determine if the implementation of each candidate is cost-effective. (Author)

Maximum surface level and temperature histories for Hanford waste tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flanagan, B.D.; Ha, N.D.; Huisingh, J.S.

1994-01-01

Radioactive defense waste resulting from the chemical processing of spent nuclear fuel has been accumulating at the Hanford Site since 1944. This waste is stored in underground waste-storage tanks. The Hanford Site Tank Farm Facilities Interim Safety Basis (ISB) provides a ready reference to the safety envelope for applicable tank farm facilities and installations. During preparation of the ISB, tank structural integrity concerns were identified as a key element in defining the safety envelope. These concerns, along with several deficiencies in the technical bases associated with the structural integrity issues and the corresponding operational limits/controls specified for conduct of normal tank farm operations are documented in the ISB. Consequently, a plan was initiated to upgrade the safety envelope technical bases by conducting Accelerated Safety Analyses-Phase 1 (ASA-Phase 1) sensitivity studies and additional structural evaluations. The purpose of this report is to facilitate the ASA-Phase 1 studies and future analyses of the single-shell tanks (SSTs) and double-shell tanks (DSTs) by compiling a quantitative summary of some of the past operating conditions the tanks have experienced during their existence. This report documents the available summaries of recorded maximum surface levels and maximum waste temperatures and references other sources for more specific data

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 17 Appendix P - Forecast Soil Moisture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-04-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 26 Appendix Y - Historical Ridging Rate.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-05-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 14 Appendix M - Historical Surface Runoff.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 12 Appendix K - Historical Rel. Humidity.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 16 Appendix O - Historical Soil Moisture.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-05-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

Evaluation of regulatory variation and theoretical health risk for pesticide maximum residue limits in food.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zijian

2018-08-01

To evaluate whether pesticide maximum residue limits (MRLs) can protect public health, a deterministic dietary risk assessment of maximum pesticide legal exposure was conducted to convert global MRLs to theoretical maximum dose intake (TMDI) values by estimating the average food intake rate and human body weight for each country. A total of 114 nations (58% of the total nations in the world) and two international organizations, including the European Union (EU) and Codex (WHO) have regulated at least one of the most currently used pesticides in at least one of the most consumed agricultural commodities. In this study, 14 of the most commonly used pesticides and 12 of the most commonly consumed agricultural commodities were identified and selected for analysis. A health risk analysis indicated that nearly 30% of the computed pesticide TMDI values were greater than the acceptable daily intake (ADI) values; however, many nations lack common pesticide MRLs in many commonly consumed foods and other human exposure pathways, such as soil, water, and air were not considered. Normality tests of the TMDI values set indicated that all distributions had a right skewness due to large TMDI clusters at the low end of the distribution, which were caused by some strict pesticide MRLs regulated by the EU (normally a default MRL of 0.01 mg/kg when essential data are missing). The Box-Cox transformation and optimal lambda (λ) were applied to these TMDI distributions, and normality tests of the transformed data set indicated that the power transformed TMDI values of at least eight pesticides presented a normal distribution. It was concluded that unifying strict pesticide MRLs by nations worldwide could significantly skew the distribution of TMDI values to the right, lower the legal exposure to pesticide, and effectively control human health risks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-05-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-04-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 24 Appendix W - Historical Sea Ice Age.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-05-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 22 Appendix U - Historical Sea Ice Thickness

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

RISKS INDUCED BY MAXIMUM FLOW WITH 1% PROBABILITY AND THEIR EFFECT ON SEVERAL SPECIES AND HABITATS IN PRICOP-HUTA-CERTEZE AND UPPER TISA NATURA 2000 PROTECTED AREAS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GH. ŞERBAN

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to identify and locate some species related to habitats from Pricop-Huta-Certeze and Upper Tisa Natura 2000 Protected Areas (PHCTS and to determine if they are vulnerable to risks induced by maximum flow phases. In the first chapter are mentioned few references about the morphometric parameters of the hydrographic networks within the study area, as well as some references related to the maximum flow phases frequency. After the second chapter, where methods and databases used in the study are described, we proceed to the identification of the areas that are covered by water during flood, as well as determining the risk level related to these areas. The GIS modeling reveals small extent of the flood high risk for natural environment related to protected areas and greater extent for the anthropic environment. The last chapter refers to several species of fish and batrachia, as well as to those amphibious mammals identified in the study area that are vulnerable to floods (high turbidity effect, reduction of dissolved oxygen quantity, habitats destruction etc..

An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

Science.gov (United States)

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

Maximum likelihood estimation of semiparametric mixture component models for competing risks data.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Sangbum; Huang, Xuelin

2014-09-01

In the analysis of competing risks data, the cumulative incidence function is a useful quantity to characterize the crude risk of failure from a specific event type. In this article, we consider an efficient semiparametric analysis of mixture component models on cumulative incidence functions. Under the proposed mixture model, latency survival regressions given the event type are performed through a class of semiparametric models that encompasses the proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model, allowing for time-dependent covariates. The marginal proportions of the occurrences of cause-specific events are assessed by a multinomial logistic model. Our mixture modeling approach is advantageous in that it makes a joint estimation of model parameters associated with all competing risks under consideration, satisfying the constraint that the cumulative probability of failing from any cause adds up to one given any covariates. We develop a novel maximum likelihood scheme based on semiparametric regression analysis that facilitates efficient and reliable estimation. Statistical inferences can be conveniently made from the inverse of the observed information matrix. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators. We validate small sample properties with simulations and demonstrate the methodology with a data set from a study of follicular lymphoma. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Maximum Acceleration Recording Circuit

Science.gov (United States)

Bozeman, Richard J., Jr.

1995-01-01

Coarsely digitized maximum levels recorded in blown fuses. Circuit feeds power to accelerometer and makes nonvolatile record of maximum level to which output of accelerometer rises during measurement interval. In comparison with inertia-type single-preset-trip-point mechanical maximum-acceleration-recording devices, circuit weighs less, occupies less space, and records accelerations within narrower bands of uncertainty. In comparison with prior electronic data-acquisition systems designed for same purpose, circuit simpler, less bulky, consumes less power, costs and analysis of data recorded in magnetic or electronic memory devices. Circuit used, for example, to record accelerations to which commodities subjected during transportation on trucks.

An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

Science.gov (United States)

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

Maximum power point tracking techniques for wind energy systems using three levels boost converter

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Cuong Hung; Nollet, Frédéric; Essounbouli, Najib; Hamzaoui, Abdelaziz

2018-05-01

This paper presents modeling and simulation of three level Boost DC-DC converter in Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS). Three-level Boost converter has significant advantage compared to conventional Boost. A maximum power point tracking (MPPT) method for a variable speed wind turbine using permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) is also presented. Simulation of three-level Boost converter topology with Perturb and Observe algorithm and Fuzzy Logic Control is implemented in MATLAB/SIMULINK. Results of this simulation show that the system with MPPT using fuzzy logic controller has better performance to the Perturb and Observe algorithm: fast response under changing conditions and small oscillation.

Shallow-land burial of low-level radioactive wastes: preliminary simulations of long-term health risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fields, D.E.; Little, C.A.; Emerson, C.J.; Hiromoto, G.

1982-01-01

PRESTO, a computer code developed for the Environmental Protection Agency for the evaluation of possible health effects associated with shallow-land rad-waste burial areas, has been used to perform simulations for three such sites. Preliminary results for the 1000 y period following site closure suggest that shallow burial, at properly chosen sites, is indeed an appropriate disposal practice for low-level wastes. Periods of maximum risk to subject populations are also inferred

Summary of EPA's risk assessment results from the analysis of alternative methods of low-level waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandrowski, M.S.; Hung, C.Y.; Meyer, G.L.; Rogers, V.C.

1987-01-01

Evaluation of the potential health risk and individual exposure from a broad number of disposal alternatives is an important part of EPA's program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive wastes (LLW). The Agency has completed an analysis of the potential population health risks and maximum individual exposures from ten disposal methods under three different hydrogeological and climatic settings. This paper briefly describes the general input and analysis procedures used in the risk assessment for LLW disposal and presents their preliminary results. Some important lessons learned from simulating LLW disposal under a large variety of methods and conditions are identified

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 2 Appendix A - Historical Near-Surface Air Temperature.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 21 Appendix T - Forecast Sea Ice Area Fraction.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 20 Appendix S - Historical Sea Ice Area Fraction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

An event- and network-level analysis of college students' maximum drinking day.

Science.gov (United States)

Meisel, Matthew K; DiBello, Angelo M; Balestrieri, Sara G; Ott, Miles Q; DiGuiseppi, Graham T; Clark, Melissa A; Barnett, Nancy P

2018-04-01

Heavy episodic drinking is common among college students and remains a serious public health issue. Previous event-level research among college students has examined behaviors and individual-level characteristics that drive consumption and related consequences but often ignores the social network of people with whom these heavy drinking episodes occur. The main aim of the current study was to investigate the network of social connections between drinkers on their heaviest drinking occasions. Sociocentric network methods were used to collect information from individuals in the first-year class (N=1342) at one university. Past-month drinkers (N=972) reported on the characteristics of their heaviest drinking occasion in the past month and indicated who else among their network connections was present during this occasion. Average max drinking day indegree, or the total number of times a participant was nominated as being present on another students' heaviest drinking occasion, was 2.50 (SD=2.05). Network autocorrelation models indicated that max drinking day indegree (e.g., popularity on heaviest drinking occassions) and peers' number of drinks on their own maximum drinking occasions were significantly associated with participant maximum number of drinks, after controlling for demographic variables, pregaming, and global network indegree (e.g., popularity in the entire first-year class). Being present at other peers' heaviest drinking occasions is associated with greater drinking quantities on one's own heaviest drinking occasion. These findings suggest the potential for interventions that target peer influences within close social networks of drinkers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mercury levels and potential risk from subsistence foods from the Aleutians.

Science.gov (United States)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Jeitner, Christian; Burke, Sean; Stamm, Tim; Snigaroff, Ronald; Snigaroff, Dan; Patrick, Robert; Weston, Jim

2007-10-01

), and for 11 of the 15 fish species examined. Nine of the 15 fish species had some samples over the 0.3 ppm level, and 7 of 15 fish had some samples over 0.5 ppm. For birds, 95% of the pigeon guillemot muscle samples were above the 0.3 ppm, and 43% were above 0.5 ppm. While health professionals may argue about the risk and benefits of eating fish, and of eating alternative protein sources, the public should be provided with enough information for them to make informed decisions. This is particularly true for subsistence people who consume large quantities of self-caught foods, particularly for sensitive sub-populations, such as pregnant women. We argue that rather than giving people blanket statements about the health benefits or risks from eating fish, information on mean and maximum mercury levels should also be provided on a wide range of subsistence foods, allowing informed decisions, especially by those most at risk.

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

Science.gov (United States)

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 6 Appendix E - Historical Minimum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

A new approach to hierarchical data analysis: Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for the causal effect of a cluster-level exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Balzer, Laura B; Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya L

2018-01-01

We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials are applied to learn about real-world implementation, sustainability, and population effects of interventions with proven individual-level efficacy. In these settings, individual-level outcomes are correlated due to shared cluster-level factors, including the exposure, as well as social or biological interactions between individuals. To flexibly and efficiently estimate the effect of a cluster-level exposure, we present two targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLEs). The first TMLE is developed under a non-parametric causal model, which allows for arbitrary interactions between individuals within a cluster. These interactions include direct transmission of the outcome (i.e. contagion) and influence of one individual's covariates on another's outcome (i.e. covariate interference). The second TMLE is developed under a causal sub-model assuming the cluster-level and individual-specific covariates are sufficient to control for confounding. Simulations compare the alternative estimators and illustrate the potential gains from pairing individual-level risk factors and outcomes during estimation, while avoiding unwarranted assumptions. Our results suggest that estimation under the sub-model can result in bias and misleading inference in an observational setting. Incorporating working assumptions during estimation is more robust than assuming they hold in the underlying causal model. We illustrate our approach with an application to HIV prevention and treatment.

Multi-level restricted maximum likelihood covariance estimation and kriging for large non-gridded spatial datasets

KAUST Repository

Castrillon, Julio

2015-11-10

We develop a multi-level restricted Gaussian maximum likelihood method for estimating the covariance function parameters and computing the best unbiased predictor. Our approach produces a new set of multi-level contrasts where the deterministic parameters of the model are filtered out thus enabling the estimation of the covariance parameters to be decoupled from the deterministic component. Moreover, the multi-level covariance matrix of the contrasts exhibit fast decay that is dependent on the smoothness of the covariance function. Due to the fast decay of the multi-level covariance matrix coefficients only a small set is computed with a level dependent criterion. We demonstrate our approach on problems of up to 512,000 observations with a Matérn covariance function and highly irregular placements of the observations. In addition, these problems are numerically unstable and hard to solve with traditional methods.

Sea-Level Change in the Russian Arctic Since the Last Glacial Maximum

Science.gov (United States)

Horton, B.; Baranskaya, A.; Khan, N.; Romanenko, F. A.

2017-12-01

Relative sea-level (RSL) databases that span the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present have been used to infer changes in climate, regional ice sheet variations, the rate and geographic source of meltwater influx, and the rheological structure of the solid Earth. Here, we have produced a quality-controlled RSL database for the Russian Arctic since the LGM. The database contains 394 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space, and 244 limiting points, which constrain the minimum or maximum limit of former sea level. In the western part of the Russian Arctic (Barents and White seas,) RSL was driven by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to deglaciation of the Scandinavian ice sheet, which covered the Baltic crystalline shield at the LGM. RSL data from isolation basins show rapid RSL from 80-100 m at 11-12 ka BP to 15-25 m at 4-5 ka BP. In the Arctic Islands of Franz-Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, RSL data from dated driftwood in raised beaches show a gradual fall from 25-35 m at 9-10 ka BP to 5-10 m at 3 ka BP. In the Russian plain, situated at the margins of the formerly glaciated Baltic crystalline shield, RSL data from raised beaches and isolation basins show an early Holocene rise from less than -20 m at 9-11 ka BP before falling in the late Holocene, illustrating the complex interplay between ice-equivalent meltwater input and GIA. The Western Siberian Arctic (Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas, Beliy Island and islands of the Kara Sea) was not glaciated at the LGM. Sea-level data from marine and salt-marsh deposits show RSL rise at the beginning of the Holocene to a mid-Holocene highstand of 1-5 m at 5-1 ka BP. A similar, but more complex RSL pattern is shown for Eastern Siberia. RSL data from the Laptev Sea shelf show RSL at -40- -45 m and 11-14 ka BP. RSL data from the Lena Delta and Tiksi region have a highstand from 5 to 1 ka BP. The research is supported by RSF project 17-77-10130

12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

What controls the maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes?

Science.gov (United States)

Eaton, D. W. S.

2017-12-01

Three different approaches for estimation of maximum magnitude are considered here, along with their implications for managing risk. The first approach is based on a deterministic limit for seismic moment proposed by McGarr (1976), which was originally designed for application to mining-induced seismicity. This approach has since been reformulated for earthquakes induced by fluid injection (McGarr, 2014). In essence, this method assumes that the upper limit for seismic moment release is constrained by the pressure-induced stress change. A deterministic limit is given by the product of shear modulus and the net injected fluid volume. This method is based on the assumptions that the medium is fully saturated and in a state of incipient failure. An alternative geometrical approach was proposed by Shapiro et al. (2011), who postulated that the rupture area for an induced earthquake falls entirely within the stimulated volume. This assumption reduces the maximum-magnitude problem to one of estimating the largest potential slip surface area within a given stimulated volume. Finally, van der Elst et al. (2016) proposed that the maximum observed magnitude, statistically speaking, is the expected maximum value for a finite sample drawn from an unbounded Gutenberg-Richter distribution. These three models imply different approaches for risk management. The deterministic method proposed by McGarr (2014) implies that a ceiling on the maximum magnitude can be imposed by limiting the net injected volume, whereas the approach developed by Shapiro et al. (2011) implies that the time-dependent maximum magnitude is governed by the spatial size of the microseismic event cloud. Finally, the sample-size hypothesis of Van der Elst et al. (2016) implies that the best available estimate of the maximum magnitude is based upon observed seismicity rate. The latter two approaches suggest that real-time monitoring is essential for effective management of risk. A reliable estimate of maximum

Low-risk factor profile, estrogen levels, and breast cancer risk among postmenopausal women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rod, Naja Hulvej; Hansen, Ase Marie; Nielsen, Jens

2008-01-01

Obesity, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and postmenopausal hormone use are known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer. We aim to measure incidence rates of breast cancer for women with favorable levels on all 4 risk factors (BMI......Obesity, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and postmenopausal hormone use are known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer. We aim to measure incidence rates of breast cancer for women with favorable levels on all 4 risk factors (BMI...

Estimating safe maximum levels of vitamins and minerals in fortified foods and food supplements.

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, Albert; Kehoe, Laura; Hennessy, Áine; Walton, Janette

2017-12-01

To show how safe maximum levels (SML) of vitamins and minerals in fortified foods and supplements may be estimated in population subgroups. SML were estimated for adults and 7- to 10-year-old children for six nutrients (retinol, vitamins B6, D and E, folic acid, iron and calcium) using data on usual daily nutrient intakes from Irish national nutrition surveys. SML of nutrients in supplements were lower for children than for adults, except for calcium and iron. Daily energy intake from fortified foods in high consumers (95th percentile) varied by nutrient from 138 to 342 kcal in adults and 40-309 kcal in children. SML (/100 kcal) of nutrients in fortified food were lower for children than adults for vitamins B6 and D, higher for vitamin E, with little difference for other nutrients. Including 25 % 'overage' for nutrients in fortified foods and supplements had little effect on SML. Nutritionally significant amounts of these nutrients can be added safely to supplements and fortified foods for these population subgroups. The estimated SML of nutrients in fortified foods and supplements may be considered safe for these population subgroups over the long term given the food composition and dietary patterns prevailing in the respective dietary surveys. This risk assessment approach shows how nutrient intake data may be used to estimate, for population subgroups, the SML for vitamins and minerals in both fortified foods and supplements, separately, each taking into account the intake from other dietary sources.

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

2013-01-01

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

2013-07-15

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

Multiperiod Maximum Loss is time unit invariant.

Science.gov (United States)

Kovacevic, Raimund M; Breuer, Thomas

2016-01-01

Time unit invariance is introduced as an additional requirement for multiperiod risk measures: for a constant portfolio under an i.i.d. risk factor process, the multiperiod risk should equal the one period risk of the aggregated loss, for an appropriate choice of parameters and independent of the portfolio and its distribution. Multiperiod Maximum Loss over a sequence of Kullback-Leibler balls is time unit invariant. This is also the case for the entropic risk measure. On the other hand, multiperiod Value at Risk and multiperiod Expected Shortfall are not time unit invariant.

Contribution to the study of maximum levels for liquid radioactive waste disposal into continental and sea water. Treatment of some typical samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bittel, R.; Mancel, J.

1968-10-01

The most important carriers of radioactive contamination of man are the whole of foodstuffs and not only ingested water or inhaled air. That is the reason why, in accordance with the spirit of the recent recommendations of the ICRP, it is proposed to substitute the idea of maximum levels of contamination of water to the MPC. In the case of aquatic food chains (aquatic organisms and irrigated foodstuffs), the knowledge of the ingested quantities and of the concentration factors food/water permit to determinate these maximum levels, or to find out a linear relation between the maximum levels in the case of two primary carriers of contamination (continental and sea waters). The notion of critical food-consumption, critical radioelements and formula of waste disposal are considered in the same way, taking care to attach the greatest possible importance to local situations. (authors) [fr

Lake-level increasing under the climate cryoaridization conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum

Science.gov (United States)

Amosov, Mikhail; Strelkov, Ivan

2017-04-01

A lake genesis and lake-level increasing during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are the paramount issues in paleoclimatology. Investigating these problems reveals the regularities of lake development and figures out an arid territory conditions at the LGM stage. Pluvial theory is the most prevalent conception of lake formation during the LGM. This theory is based on a fact that the water bodies emerged and their level increased due to torrential rainfalls. In this study, it is paid attention to an alternative assumption of lake genesis at the LGM stage, which is called climate cryoaridization. In accordance with this hypothesis, the endorheic water basins had their level enlarged because of a simultaneous climate aridity and temperature decrease. In this research, a lake-level increasing in endorheic regions of Central Asia and South American Altiplano of the Andes is described. The lake investigation is related to its conditions during the LGM. The study also includes a lake catalogue clearly presenting the basin conditions at the LGM stage and nowadays. The data compilation partly consists of information from an earlier work of Mikhail Amosov, Lake-levels, Vegetation And Climate In Central Asia During The Last Glacial Maximum (EGU2014-3015). According to the investigation, a lake catalogue on 27 lakes showed that most of the water bodies had higher level. This feature could be mentioned for the biggest lakes of the Aral Sea, Lake Balkhash, Issyk-Kul etc. and for the small ones located in the mountains, such as Pamir, Tian-Shan and Tibet. Yet some lakes that are situated in Central Asian periphery (Lake Qinghai and lakes in Inner Mongolia) used to be lower than nowadays. Also, the lake-level increasing of Altiplano turned to be a significant feature during the LGM in accordance with the data of 5 lakes, such as Titicaca, Coipasa-Uyuni, Lejia, Miscanti and Santa-Maria. Most of the current endorheic basins at the LGM stage were filled with water due to abundant

Acceptable level of radiation risk and its perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kusama, Tomoko; Shinozaki, Motoshi; Yoshizawa, Yasuo

1987-01-01

The acceptable level of radiation risk for public members, that is 10 -5 /y, was proposed by ICRP and other international organizations. We studied to survey basic procedures of deriving this value and to derive an acceptable risk value in Japan by using similar procedures. The basic procedures to derive 10 -5 /y were found as follows; (1) 0.1 percent of annual mortality from all diseases, (2) 0.1 percent of life time risk, (3) one percent of mortality from all causes in each age cohort and (4) corresponding value to 1 mSv annual radiation exposure. From these bases we derived the value of 10 -5 /y as acceptable risk level in Japan. The perception to risk level of 10 -5 /y in conventional life was investigated by means of questionnaires for 1,095 college students living in Tokyo. The risks considered in this study were natural background radiation, coffee, skiing, X-ray diagnosis, spontaneous cancer, passive smoking and air pollution. The most acceptable risk was the risk related with natural background radiation. And the risk of natural background radiation was more easily accepted by the students who had knowledges on natural background radiation. On the other hand, the risk from air pollution or passive smoking was the most adverse one. (author)

Should legislation regarding maximum Pb and Cd levels in human food also cover large game meat?

Science.gov (United States)

Taggart, Mark A; Reglero, Manuel M; Camarero, Pablo R; Mateo, Rafael

2011-01-01

Game meat may be contaminated with metals and metalloids if animals reside in anthropogenically polluted areas, or if ammunition used to kill the game contaminates the meat. Muscle tissue from red deer and wild boar shot in Ciudad Real province (Spain) in 2005-06 was analysed for As, Pb, Cu, Zn, Se and Cd. Samples were collected from hunting estates within and outside an area that has been historically used for mining, smelting and refining various metals and metalloids. Meat destined for human consumption, contained more Pb, As and Se (red deer) and Pb (boar) when harvested from animals that had resided in mined areas. Age related accumulation of Cd, Zn and As (in deer) and Cd, Cu and Se (in boar) was also observed. Two boar meat samples contained high Pb, at 352 and 2408 μg/g d.w., and these were likely to have been contaminated by Pb ammunition. Likewise, 19-84% of all samples (depending on species and sampling area) had Pb levels > 0.1 μg/g w.w., the EU maximum residue level (MRL) for farm reared meat. Between 9 and 43% of samples exceeded comparable Cd limits. Such data highlight a discrepancy between what is considered safe for human consumption in popular farmed meat (chicken, beef, lamb), and what in game may often exist. A risk assessment is presented which describes the number of meals required to exceed current tolerable weekly intakes (PTWIs) for Pb and Cd, and the potential contribution of large game consumption to such intake limit criteria. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Acceptable level of radiation risk and its perception

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kusama, Tomoko; Shinozaki, Motoshi; Yoshizawa, Yasuo

1987-03-01

The acceptable level of radiation risk for public members, that is 10/sup -5//y, was proposed by ICRP and other international organizations. We studied to survey basic procedures of deriving this value and to derive an acceptable risk value in Japan by using similar procedures. The basic procedures to derive 10/sup -5//y were found as follows; (1) 0.1 percent of annual mortality from all diseases, (2) 0.1 percent of life time risk, (3) one percent of mortality from all causes in each age cohort and (4) corresponding value to 1 mSv annual radiation exposure. From these bases we derived the value of 10/sup -5//y as acceptable risk level in Japan. The perception to risk level of 10/sup -5//y in conventional life was investigated by means of questionnaires for 1,095 college students living in Tokyo. The risks considered in this study were natural background radiation, coffee, skiing, X-ray diagnosis, spontaneous cancer, passive smoking and air pollution. The most acceptable risk was the risk related with natural background radiation. And the risk of natural background radiation was more easily accepted by the students who had knowledges on natural background radiation. On the other hand, the risk from air pollution or passive smoking was the most adverse one.

Average County-Level IQ Predicts County-Level Disadvantage and Several County-Level Mortality Risk Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, J. C.; Beaver, Kevin M.; Boutwell, Brian B.

2013-01-01

Research utilizing individual-level data has reported a link between intelligence (IQ) scores and health problems, including early mortality risk. A growing body of evidence has found similar associations at higher levels of aggregation such as the state- and national-level. At the same time, individual-level research has suggested the…

Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

1995-01-01

Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

Low-level radiation risks in people

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goloman, M.; Filjushkin, V. lgor

1993-01-01

Using the limited human data plus the relationships derived from the laboratory, a leukemia risk model has been developed as well as a suggested model for other cancers in people exposed to low levels of radiation. Theoretical experimental and epidemiological evidence will be presented in an integrated stochastic model for projection of radiation-induced cancer risks

An investigation of the maximum penetration level of a photovoltaic (PV) system into a traditional distribution grid

Science.gov (United States)

Chalise, Santosh

Although solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have remained the fastest growing renewable power generating technology, variability as well as uncertainty in the output of PV plants is a significant issue. This rapid increase in PV grid-connected generation presents not only progress in clean energy but also challenges in integration with traditional electric power grids which were designed for transmission and distribution of power from central stations. Unlike conventional electric generators, PV panels do not have rotating parts and thus have no inertia. This potentially causes a problem when the solar irradiance incident upon a PV plant changes suddenly, for example, when scattered clouds pass quickly overhead. The output power of the PV plant may fluctuate nearly as rapidly as the incident irradiance. These rapid power output fluctuations may then cause voltage fluctuations, frequency fluctuations, and power quality issues. These power quality issues are more severe with increasing PV plant power output. This limits the maximum power output allowed from interconnected PV plants. Voltage regulation of a distribution system, a focus of this research, is a prime limiting factor in PV penetration levels. The IEEE 13-node test feeder, modeled and tested in the MATLAB/Simulink environment, was used as an example distribution feeder to analyze the maximum acceptable penetration of a PV plant. The effect of the PV plant's location was investigated, along with the addition of a VAR compensating device (a D-STATCOM in this case). The results were used to develop simple guidelines for determining an initial estimate of the maximum PV penetration level on a distribution feeder. For example, when no compensating devices are added to the system, a higher level of PV penetration is generally achieved by installing the PV plant close to the substation. The opposite is true when a VAR compensator is installed with the PV plant. In these cases, PV penetration levels over 50% may be

An overview of the report: Correlation between carcinogenic potency and the maximum tolerated dose: Implications for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewski, D.; Gaylor, D.W.; Soms, A.P.; Szyszkowicz, M.

1993-01-01

Current practice in carcinogen bioassay calls for exposure of experimental animals at doses up to and including the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). Such studies have been used to compute measures of carcinogenic potency such as the TD 50 as well as unit risk factors such as q 1 for predicting low-dose risks. Recent studies have indicated that these measures of carcinogenic potency are highly correlated with the MTD. Carcinogenic potency has also been shown to be correlated with indicators of mutagenicity and toxicity. Correlation of the MTDs for rats and mice implies a corresponding correlation in TD 50 values for these two species. The implications of these results for cancer risk assessment are examined in light of the large variation in potency among chemicals known to induce tumors in rodents. 119 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs

Development of a low-level waste risk methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, J.E.; Falconer, K.L.

1984-01-01

A probabilistic risk assessment method is presented for performance evaluation of low-level waste disposal facilities. The associated program package calculates the risk associated with postulated radionuclide release and transport scenarios. Risk is computed as the mathematical product of two statistical variables: the dose consequence of a given release scenario, and its occurrence probability. A sample risk calculation is included which demonstrates the method. This PRA method will facilitate evaluation of facility performance, including identification of high risk scenarios and their mitigation via optimization of site parameters. The method is intended to be used in facility licensing as a demonstration of compliance with the performance objectives set forth in 10 CFR Part 61, or in corresponding state regulations. The Low-Level Waste Risk Methodology is being developed under sponsorship of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP LEVEL AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN

OpenAIRE

Isaiah, Chioma; Li, Meng (Emma)

2017-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between the level of institutional ownership andrisk-adjusted return on stocks. We find a significant positive relationship between the level ofinstitutional ownership on a stock and its risk-adjusted return. This result holds both in the longrun and in shorter time periods. Our findings suggest that all things being equal, it is possible toobtain risk-adjusted return by going short on the stocks with low institutional ownership andgoing long on those with...

Cancer risk in relation to serum copper levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Coates, R J; Weiss, N S; Daling, J R; Rettmer, R L; Warnick, G R

1989-08-01

A nested, matched case-control study was conducted to assess the relationship between serum levels of copper and the subsequent risk of cancer. One hundred thirty-three cases of cancer were identified during 1974-1984 among 5000 members of a northwest Washington State employee cohort from whom serum specimens had been previously obtained and stored. Two hundred forty-one controls were selected at random from the cohort and were matched to the cases on the basis of age, sex, race, and date of blood draw. Serum copper levels were measured by atomic absorption spectrometry. Risk of a subsequent diagnosis of cancer was positively associated with serum copper levels, but only among those cases diagnosed within 4 years of the time the serum specimens were collected. Among cases diagnosed more than 4 years after specimen collection, there was no consistent association between serum copper levels and risk. Adjustment for age, sex, race, occupational status, cigarette smoking, family history of cancer, alcohol consumption, and, among females, use of exogenous hormones had no appreciable effect on these relationships. The findings suggest that the presence of cancer may increase serum copper levels several years prior to its diagnosis. They are less supportive of the hypothesis that serum copper levels affect cancer risk.

Interest of comparative risk assessment in economic development and proposals on a regional level: a practical example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouville, A.; Coulon, R.; Aigueperse, J.

1983-01-01

As major human activities develop, those responsible for orienting these activities and making decisions must take more and more account, notably due to pressure from the public, of risks likely to arise, together with other elements of choice such as technical, economic, social and political considerations. It is therefore essential to make an objective assessment of these risks to which individual are exposed naturally or because of their life styles. Because most decisions are made on a regional level and because it is also at this level that can be realistically defined the environmental characteristics, the way of life and the economic and social structure which determine the risks to which the regional population is exposed, it is on this scale that a comparative assessment is of maximum value. This assessment should be as exhaustive as possible and should take into account all the risks whether natural or artificial, and from whatever source (industrial, domestic, medical, etc.). It should take into account successively the exposure to various hazards, and the resulting consequences to health based on the choice of appropriate indicators and on available knowledge of exposure-effects relationships. Subjective aspects of risk perception should also be considered. A study program has been begun covering the region called the ''Grand Delta'' which includes the Rhone valley and its banks to the mediterraneen coast in the South East part of France [fr

The Red Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum: implications for sea level reconstructions

Science.gov (United States)

Gildor, H.; Biton, E.; Peltier, W. R.

2006-12-01

The Red Sea (RS) is a semi-enclosed basin connected to the Indian Ocean via a narrow and shallow strait, and surrounded by arid areas which exhibits high sensitivity to atmospheric changes and sea level reduction. We have used the MIT GCM to investigate the changes in the hydrography and circulation in the RS in response to reduced sea level, variability in the Indian monsoons, and changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The model results show high sensitivity to sea level reduction especially in the salinity field (increasing with the reduction in sea level) together with a mild atmospheric impact. Sea level reduction decreases the stratification, increases subsurface temperatures, and alters the circulation pattern at the Strait of Bab el Mandab, which experiences a transition from submaximal flow to maximal flow. The reduction in sea level at LGM alters the location of deep water formation which shifts to an open sea convective site in the northern part of the RS compared to present day situation in which deep water is formed from the Gulf of Suez outflow. Our main result based on both the GCM and on a simple hydraulic control model which takes into account mixing process at the Strait of Bab El Mandeb, is that sea level was reduced by only ~100 m in the Bab El Mandeb region during the LGM, i.e. the water depth at the Hanish sill (the shallowest part in the Strait Bab el Mandab) was around 34 m. This result agrees with the recent reconstruction of the LGM low stand of the sea in this region based upon the ICE-5G (VM2) model of Peltier (2004).

Communicating Flood Risk with Street-Level Data

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, B. F.; Matthew, R.; Houston, D.; Cheung, W. H.; Karlin, B.; Schubert, J.; Gallien, T.; Luke, A.; Contreras, S.; Goodrich, K.; Feldman, D.; Basolo, V.; Serrano, K.; Reyes, A.

2015-12-01

Coastal communities around the world face significant and growing flood risks that require an accelerating adaptation response, and fine-resolution urban flood models could serve a pivotal role in enabling communities to meet this need. Such models depict impacts at the level of individual buildings and land parcels or "street level" - the same spatial scale at which individuals are best able to process flood risk information - constituting a powerful tool to help communities build better understandings of flood vulnerabilities and identify cost-effective interventions. To measure understanding of flood risk within a community and the potential impact of street-level models, we carried out a household survey of flood risk awareness in Newport Beach, California, a highly urbanized coastal lowland that presently experiences nuisance flooding from high tides, waves and rainfall and is expected to experience a significant increase in flood frequency and intensity with climate change. Interviews were completed with the aid of a wireless-enabled tablet device that respondents could use to identify areas they understood to be at risk of flooding and to view either a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood map or a more detailed map prepared with a hydrodynamic urban coastal flood model (UCI map) built with grid cells as fine as 3 m resolution and validated with historical flood data. Results indicate differences in the effectiveness of the UCI and FEMA maps at communicating the spatial distribution of flood risk, gender differences in how the maps affect flood understanding, and spatial biases in the perception of flood vulnerabilities.

[Gradation in the level of vitamin consumption: possible risk of excessive consumption].

Science.gov (United States)

Kodentsova, V M

2014-01-01

The ratio between the levels of consumption of certain vitamins and minerals [recommended daily allowance for labelling purposes Vitamin A and beta-carotene maximum supplement levels coincides with UL, and recommended daily allowance for these micronutrients coincides with the maximal level of consumption through dietary supplements and/or multivitamins. Except for vitamin A and beta-carotene recommended daily allowance for other vitamins adopted in Russia are considerably lower than the upper safe level of consumption. For vitamin A and beta-carotene there is a potential risk for excess consumption. According to the literature data (meta-analysis) prolonged intake of high doses of antioxidant vitamins (above the RDA) both alone and in combination with two other vitamins or vitamin C [> 800 microg (R.E.) of vitamin A, > 9.6 mg of beta-carotene, > 15 mg (T.E.) of vitamin E] do not possess preventive effects and may be harmful with unwanted consequences to health, especially in well-nourished populations, persons having risk of lung cancer (smokers, workers exposed to asbestos), in certain conditions (in the atmosphere with high oxygen content, hyperoxia, oxygen therapy). Proposed mechanisms of such action may be due to the manifestation of prooxidant action when taken in high doses, shifting balance with other important natural antioxidants, their displacement (substitution), interference with the natural defense mechanisms. Athletes are the population group that requires attention as used antioxidant vitamins A, C, E, both individually and in combination in extremely high doses. In summary, it should be noted that intake of physiological doses which are equivalent to the needs of the human organism, as well as diet inclusion of fortified foods not only pose no threat to health, but will bring undoubted benefits, filling the existing lack of vitamins in the ration.

The application of a Grey Markov Model to forecasting annual maximum water levels at hydrological stations

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Sheng; Chi, Kun; Zhang, Qiyi; Zhang, Xiangdong

2012-03-01

Compared with traditional real-time forecasting, this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model (GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area. The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model. The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values, and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information. The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps: 1) establish the GM (1, 1) model based on the data series; 2) estimate the trend values; 3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series; 4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2, and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation; 5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy. The historical water level records (from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin, China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps. Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence. Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data. The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary. The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable. The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.

Residue levels and risk assessment of pesticides in nuts of China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yihua; Shen, Danyu; Li, Shiliang; Ni, Zhanglin; Ding, Ming; Ye, Caifen; Tang, Fubin

2016-02-01

The pesticide residue levels of three nuts (chestnut, walnut, pinenut) collected from seven main producing areas of China were investigated. Twenty-nine pesticides, including organophosphates (OPs), organochlorines (OCs), pyrethroids (PYs) and two fungicides (triadimefon and buprofezin) were analyzed by gas chromatography (GC). Four OPs (acephate, dimethoate, chlorpyrifos and parathion-methyl) were found in 11.4% samples, with the concentrations of 19.0 µg kg(-1) to 74.0 µg kg(-1). Six OCs (DDT, HCH, endosulfan, quintozene, aldrin and dieldrin) were found in 18.2% samples, with the concentrations of 2.0 µg kg(-1) to 65.7 µg kg(-1). Among OCs, p,p-DDE and α-HCH were the dominant isomer for DDT and HCH. Five PYs (fenpropathrin, fenvalerate, cypermethrin, bifenthrin and cyhalothrin) were found in 15.9% samples, with the concentrations of 2.5 µg kg(-1) to 433.0 µg kg(-1). Fenpropathrin was the most frequently detected pesticide. In addition, triadimefon and buprofezin were detected only in two samples. For the tested nuts, 25.0% samples with multiple residues (containing more than two pesticides) were noted, even up to 9.1% samples with five pesticide residues. The residue of 15.9% samples was higher than the maximum residue limits (MRLs) of China. The short-term risks for the tested nuts were below 1.2%, and the highest long-term risk was 12.58%. The cumulative risk (cHI) for the tested pesticides were 8.43% (OPs), 0.42% (OCs), 12.82% (PYs) and 0.15% (fungicides), respectively. The total cHI was 21.82%. There was no significant health risk for consumers via nuts consumption. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Control of System with Defined Risk Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavol Tomasov

2002-01-01

Full Text Available In the following paper the basic requirements for system control with defined risk level is presented. The paper should be an introduction to describe of theoretical apparatus, which was created during some years of research work in the Department of information and safety systems in this area. It a modification or creation of new parts of Information theory, System theory, and Control theory means. This parts are necessary for the analysis and synthesis tasks in the systems where dominant attribute of control is defined risk level. The basic problem is the creation of protect mechanism again the threats from inside and from controlled system environs. For each risk reduction mechanism is needed some redundancy which should be into control algorithm to put by exactly determined way.

Level set segmentation of medical images based on local region statistics and maximum a posteriori probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Wenchao; Wang, Yi; Lei, Tao; Fan, Yangyu; Feng, Yan

2013-01-01

This paper presents a variational level set method for simultaneous segmentation and bias field estimation of medical images with intensity inhomogeneity. In our model, the statistics of image intensities belonging to each different tissue in local regions are characterized by Gaussian distributions with different means and variances. According to maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) and Bayes' rule, we first derive a local objective function for image intensities in a neighborhood around each pixel. Then this local objective function is integrated with respect to the neighborhood center over the entire image domain to give a global criterion. In level set framework, this global criterion defines an energy in terms of the level set functions that represent a partition of the image domain and a bias field that accounts for the intensity inhomogeneity of the image. Therefore, image segmentation and bias field estimation are simultaneously achieved via a level set evolution process. Experimental results for synthetic and real images show desirable performances of our method.

A spatial scan statistic for nonisotropic two-level risk cluster.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiao-Zhou; Wang, Jin-Feng; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Li, Zhong-Jie; Lai, Sheng-Jie

2012-01-30

Spatial scan statistic methods are commonly used for geographical disease surveillance and cluster detection. The standard spatial scan statistic does not model any variability in the underlying risks of subregions belonging to a detected cluster. For a multilevel risk cluster, the isotonic spatial scan statistic could model a centralized high-risk kernel in the cluster. Because variations in disease risks are anisotropic owing to different social, economical, or transport factors, the real high-risk kernel will not necessarily take the central place in a whole cluster area. We propose a spatial scan statistic for a nonisotropic two-level risk cluster, which could be used to detect a whole cluster and a noncentralized high-risk kernel within the cluster simultaneously. The performance of the three methods was evaluated through an intensive simulation study. Our proposed nonisotropic two-level method showed better power and geographical precision with two-level risk cluster scenarios, especially for a noncentralized high-risk kernel. Our proposed method is illustrated using the hand-foot-mouth disease data in Pingdu City, Shandong, China in May 2009, compared with two other methods. In this practical study, the nonisotropic two-level method is the only way to precisely detect a high-risk area in a detected whole cluster. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk ratios for use in establishing dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metcalf, P.E.; Winkler, B.C.

1980-01-01

Dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation may be established by comparing the associated mortality risk with apparently accepted levels of industrial mortality risk due to conventional hazards. Average levels of industrial mortality risk rates are frequently quoted and used in such comparisons. However, within particular occupations or industries certain groups of workers will be exposed to higher levels of risk than the average, again an apparently accepted situation. A study has been made of the ratios of maximum to average industrial mortality risk currently experienced in some South African industries. Such a ratio may be used to assess the acceptability of maximum individual-to-average exposures in particular groups of exposed individuals. (author)

Pilot survey of subway and bus stop noise levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Gershon, Robyn R M; Neitzel, Richard; Barrera, Marissa A; Akram, Muhammad

2006-09-01

Excessive noise exposure is a serious global urban health problem, adversely affecting millions of people. One often cited source of urban noise is mass transit, particularly subway systems. As a first step in determining risk within this context, we recently conducted an environmental survey of noise levels of the New York City transit system. Over 90 noise measurements were made using a sound level meter. Average and maximum noise levels were measured on subway platforms, and maximum levels were measured inside subway cars and at several bus stops for comparison purposes. The average noise level measured on the subway platforms was 86 +/- 4 dBA (decibel-A weighting). Maximum levels of 106, 112, and 89 dBA were measured on subway platforms, inside subway cars, and at bus stops, respectively. These results indicate that noise levels in subway and bus stop environments have the potential to exceed recommended exposure guidelines from the World Health Organization (WHO) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), given sufficient exposure duration. Risk reduction strategies following the standard hierarchy of control measures should be applied, where feasible, to reduce subway noise exposure.

Human health risks associated with residual pesticide levels in edible tissues of slaughtered cattle in Benin City, Southern Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isioma Tongo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Pesticide residues in meat is of growing concern due to possible adverse effects on humans. Pesticide levels were assessed in five edible cattle parts: muscle, liver, kidney and tongue tissues to determine human health risk associated with consumption of these tissues. Health risk estimates were analysed using estimated daily intake (EDI, hazard quotient (HQ and hazard index (HI for two (2 age/weight categories: 1–11years/30 kg for children while 70 kg was used for adult. Risks were categorized for non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health effects and measured at the average, maximum, 50th and 95th percentiles of the measured exposure concentrations (MEC. Total pesticide residues ranged from 2.38 to 3.86 μg/kg (muscle, 3.58 to 6.3 μg/kg (liver, 1.87 to 4.59 μg/kg (kidney and 2.54 to 4.35 μg/kg (tongue. Residual pesticide concentrations in the tissues were in the order: Liver > Tongue > Muscle > Kidney. The concentrations of all the assessed pesticides observed in the tissues were however lower than the recommended maximum residual limits (MRLs. Human health risk estimations for the children showed EDI values for heptachlor epoxide, aldrin and dieldrin exceeding threshold values. Non-cancer risk posed to children on consumption of contaminated cattle parts showed HQ values for heptachlor epoxide, aldrin, dieldrin and HI values for organochlorines exceeding 1, indicating the possibility of non-carcinogenic health risks to consumers especially children from consumption of cattle meat from the selected abattoirs.

Risk management of undesirable substances in feed following updated risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verstraete, Frans

2013-01-01

Directive 2002/32/EC of 7 May 2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council on undesirable substances in animal feed is the framework for the EU action on undesirable substances in feed. This framework Directive provides: ⁎that products intended for animal feed may enter for use in the Union from third countries, be put into circulation and/or used in the Union only if they are sound, genuine and of merchantable quality and therefore when correctly used do not represent any danger to human health, animal health or to the environment or could adversely affect livestock production. ⁎that in order to protect animal and public health and the environment, maximum levels for specific undesirable substances shall be established where necessary. ⁎for mandatory consultation of a scientific body (EFSA) for all provisions which may have an effect upon public health or animal health or on the environment. ⁎that products intended for animal feed containing levels of an undesirable substance that exceed the established maximum level may not be mixed for dilution purposes with the same, or other, products intended for animal feed and may not be used for the production of compound feed. Based on the provisions and principles laid down in this framework Directive, maximum levels for a whole range of undesirable substances have been established at EU level. During the discussions in view of the adoption of Directive 2002/32/EC, the European Commission made the commitment to review all existing provisions on undesirable substances on the basis of updated scientific risk assessments. Following requests of the European Commission, the Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has completed a series of 30 risk assessments undertaken over the last 5 years on undesirable substances in animal feed reviewing the possible risks for animal and human health due to the presence of these substances in animal feed. EU legislation

Risk management of undesirable substances in feed following updated risk assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verstraete, Frans, E-mail: Frans.Verstraete@ec.europa.eu

2013-08-01

Directive 2002/32/EC of 7 May 2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council on undesirable substances in animal feed is the framework for the EU action on undesirable substances in feed. This framework Directive provides: ⁎that products intended for animal feed may enter for use in the Union from third countries, be put into circulation and/or used in the Union only if they are sound, genuine and of merchantable quality and therefore when correctly used do not represent any danger to human health, animal health or to the environment or could adversely affect livestock production. ⁎that in order to protect animal and public health and the environment, maximum levels for specific undesirable substances shall be established where necessary. ⁎for mandatory consultation of a scientific body (EFSA) for all provisions which may have an effect upon public health or animal health or on the environment. ⁎that products intended for animal feed containing levels of an undesirable substance that exceed the established maximum level may not be mixed for dilution purposes with the same, or other, products intended for animal feed and may not be used for the production of compound feed. Based on the provisions and principles laid down in this framework Directive, maximum levels for a whole range of undesirable substances have been established at EU level. During the discussions in view of the adoption of Directive 2002/32/EC, the European Commission made the commitment to review all existing provisions on undesirable substances on the basis of updated scientific risk assessments. Following requests of the European Commission, the Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has completed a series of 30 risk assessments undertaken over the last 5 years on undesirable substances in animal feed reviewing the possible risks for animal and human health due to the presence of these substances in animal feed. EU legislation

Increased circulating D-lactate levels predict risk of mortality after hemorrhage and surgical trauma in baboons.

Science.gov (United States)

Sobhian, Babak; Kröpfl, Albert; Hölzenbein, Thomas; Khadem, Anna; Redl, Heinz; Bahrami, Soheyl

2012-05-01

Patients with hemorrhagic shock and/or trauma are at risk of developing colonic ischemia associated with bacterial translocation that may lead to multiple organ failure and death. Intestinal ischemia is difficult to diagnose noninvasively. The present retrospective study was designed to determine whether circulating plasma D-lactate is associated with mortality in a clinically relevant two-hit model in baboons. Hemorrhagic shock was induced in anesthetized baboons (n = 24) by controlled bleeding (mean arterial pressure, 40 mmHg), base excess (maximum -5 mmol/L), and time (maximum 3 h). To mimic clinical setting more closely, all animals underwent a surgical trauma after resuscitation including midshaft osteotomy stabilized with reamed femoral interlocking nailing and were followed for 7 days. Hemorrhagic shock/surgical trauma resulted in 66% mortality by day 7. In nonsurvivor (n = 16) hemorrhagic shock/surgical trauma baboons, circulating D-lactate levels were significantly increased (2-fold) at 24 h compared with survivors (n = 8), whereas the early increase during hemorrhage and resuscitation declined during the early postresuscitation phase with no difference between survivors and nonsurvivors. Moreover, D-lactate levels remained elevated in the nonsurvival group until death, whereas it decreased to baseline in survivors. Prediction of death (receiver operating characteristic test) by D-lactate was accurate with an area under the curve (days 1-3 after trauma) of 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.93). The optimal D-lactate cutoff value of 25.34 μg/mL produced sensitivity of 73% to 99% and specificity of 50% to 83%. Our data suggest that elevation of plasma D-lactate after 24 h predicts an increased risk of mortality after hemorrhage and trauma.

The regulation of starch accumulation in Panicum maximum Jacq ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... decrease the starch level. These observations are discussed in relation to the photosynthetic characteristics of P. maximum. Keywords: accumulation; botany; carbon assimilation; co2 fixation; growth conditions; mesophyll; metabolites; nitrogen; nitrogen levels; nitrogen supply; panicum maximum; plant physiology; starch; ...

20 CFR 10.806 - How are the maximum fees defined?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... AMENDED Information for Medical Providers Medical Fee Schedule § 10.806 How are the maximum fees defined? For professional medical services, the Director shall maintain a schedule of maximum allowable fees.../Current Procedural Terminology (HCPCS/CPT) code which represents the relative skill, effort, risk and time...

Screening-Level Ecological Risk Assessment Methods, Revision 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mirenda, Richard J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2012-08-16

This document provides guidance for screening-level assessments of potential adverse impacts to ecological resources from release of environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory). The methods presented are based on two objectives, namely: to provide a basis for reaching consensus with regulators, managers, and other interested parties on how to conduct screening-level ecological risk investigations at the Laboratory; and to provide guidance for ecological risk assessors under the Environmental Programs (EP) Directorate. This guidance promotes consistency, rigor, and defensibility in ecological screening investigations and in reporting those investigation results. The purpose of the screening assessment is to provide information to the risk managers so informed riskmanagement decisions can be made. This document provides examples of recommendations and possible risk-management strategies.

Assessing the risk associated with the presence of emerging organic contaminants in sludge-amended soil: A country-level analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomaidi, Vasiliki S; Stasinakis, Athanasios S; Borova, Viola L; Thomaidis, Nikolaos S

2016-04-01

Greece was used as case study and the environmental risk associated with the existence of 99 emerging organic contaminants (EOCs) in sludge-amended soil was estimated using risk quotient (RQ) approach. Data on the concentration levels of EOCs in sewage sludge was collected after literature review. Chemical analyses were also conducted for 50 pharmaceuticals and illicit drugs in sludge samples from Athens Sewage Treatment Plant. Risk assessment was based on both terrestrial and aquatic acute toxicity data, using both the maximum and the average measured concentrations of the target compounds. EC50/LC50 values were collected through literature review or using the ECOSAR program in cases that experimental values were not available. Triclosan seems to pose an environmental risk on the soil environment, as its RQ values exceeded 1, both in terrestrial and aquatic toxicity data based risk assessment. Calculations based on aquatic toxicity data showed that another eleven compounds had RQs higher than 1, most of them belonging to the classes of synthetic phenolic compounds and siloxanes. Tetradecamethylhexasiloxane presented the highest RQ, while high RQs were also calculated for decamethylcyclopentasiloxane and caffeine. No environmental risk for the terrestrial environment is expected due to the individual action of illicit drugs, perfluorinated compounds and benzotriazoles. The sludge source and the day of sampling affected the estimated threat due to nonylphenolic compounds; however these factors did not affect the estimated risk for siloxanes, caffeine and ofloxacin. Calculation of RQ values for the mixture of EOCs, using either the maximum or the average concentrations, far exceeded 1 (253 and 209, respectively), indicating a presumable threat for the terrestrial environment due to the baseline toxicity of these compounds. Countries that reuse sludge for agricultural purposes should include specific EOCs in national monitoring campaigns and study more thoroughly on

Taking risk assessment and management to the next level - 59395

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, Jerel; Morton, Russel Lee; Castillo, Carlos; Dyer, George; Johnson, Natalie; McSwain, James T.; Kruskall, Gary Nick

2012-01-01

Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact

An approach for determining the acceptable levels of nuclear risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-03-01

The objective of this study was to develop a methodology for determining the acceptable levels of risk with respect to nuclear energy. It was concluded that the Atomic Energy Control Board should identify the interest groups that affect its choice of an acceptable level of risk, determine their expectations, and balance the expectations of the various groups such that the resulting acceptable level of risk is still acceptable to the Board. This would be done by interviewing experts on the subject of nuclear safety, developing and pretesting a public questionnaire, and surveying the public on acceptable cost-risk combinations

How long do centenarians survive? Life expectancy and maximum lifespan.

Science.gov (United States)

Modig, K; Andersson, T; Vaupel, J; Rau, R; Ahlbom, A

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the pattern of mortality above the age of 100 years. In particular, we aimed to examine whether Scandinavian data support the theory that mortality reaches a plateau at particularly old ages. Whether the maximum length of life increases with time was also investigated. The analyses were based on individual level data on all Swedish and Danish centenarians born from 1870 to 1901; in total 3006 men and 10 963 women were included. Birth cohort-specific probabilities of dying were calculated. Exact ages were used for calculations of maximum length of life. Whether maximum age changed over time was analysed taking into account increases in cohort size. The results confirm that there has not been any improvement in mortality amongst centenarians in the past 30 years and that the current rise in life expectancy is driven by reductions in mortality below the age of 100 years. The death risks seem to reach a plateau of around 50% at the age 103 years for men and 107 years for women. Despite the rising life expectancy, the maximum age does not appear to increase, in particular after accounting for the increasing number of individuals of advanced age. Mortality amongst centenarians is not changing despite improvements at younger ages. An extension of the maximum lifespan and a sizeable extension of life expectancy both require reductions in mortality above the age of 100 years. © 2017 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Maximum coherent superposition state achievement using a non-resonant pulse train in non-degenerate three-level atoms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deng, Li; Niu, Yueping; Jin, Luling; Gong, Shangqing

2010-01-01

The coherent superposition state of the lower two levels in non-degenerate three-level Λ atoms is investigated using the accumulative effects of non-resonant pulse trains when the repetition period is smaller than the decay time of the upper level. First, using a rectangular pulse train, the accumulative effects are re-examined in the non-resonant two-level atoms and the modified constructive accumulation equation is analytically given. The equation shows that the relative phase and the repetition period are important in the accumulative effect. Next, under the modified equation in the non-degenerate three-level Λ atoms, we show that besides the constructive accumulation effect, the use of the partial constructive accumulation effect can also achieve the steady state of the maximum coherent superposition state of the lower two levels and the latter condition is relatively easier to manipulate. The analysis is verified by numerical calculations. The influence of the external levels in such a case is also considered and we find that it can be avoided effectively. The above analysis is also applicable to pulse trains with arbitrary envelopes.

The Effects of a Maximal Power Training Cycle on the Strength, Maximum Power, Vertical Jump Height and Acceleration of High-Level 400-Meter Hurdlers

Science.gov (United States)

Balsalobre-Fernández, Carlos; Tejero-González, Carlos Mª; del Campo-Vecino, Juan; Alonso-Curiel, Dionisio

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the effects of a power training cycle on maximum strength, maximum power, vertical jump height and acceleration in seven high-level 400-meter hurdlers subjected to a specific training program twice a week for 10 weeks. Each training session consisted of five sets of eight jump-squats with the load at which each athlete produced his maximum power. The repetition maximum in the half squat position (RM), maximum power in the jump-squat (W), a squat jump (SJ), countermovement jump (CSJ), and a 30-meter sprint from a standing position were measured before and after the training program using an accelerometer, an infra-red platform and photo-cells. The results indicated the following statistically significant improvements: a 7.9% increase in RM (Z=−2.03, p=0.021, δc=0.39), a 2.3% improvement in SJ (Z=−1.69, p=0.045, δc=0.29), a 1.43% decrease in the 30-meter sprint (Z=−1.70, p=0.044, δc=0.12), and, where maximum power was produced, a change in the RM percentage from 56 to 62% (Z=−1.75, p=0.039, δc=0.54). As such, it can be concluded that strength training with a maximum power load is an effective means of increasing strength and acceleration in high-level hurdlers. PMID:23717361

Exposure level of ergonomic risk factors in hotel industries

Science.gov (United States)

Nasrull Abdol Rahman, Mohd; Syahir Muhamad Jaffar, Mohd; Fahrul Hassan, Mohd; Zamani Ngali, Mohd; Pauline, Ong

2017-08-01

Ergonomic Risk Factors (ERFs) which contribute to Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs) among room attendants were considered as a problem or trouble since these ERFs would affect their work performance for hotel industries. The purpose of this study was to examine the exposure level of ERFs among room attendants in hotel industries. 65 of respondents were obtained from selected hotels in Peninsular Malaysia. Data were collected by direct observation via Workplace Ergonomic Risk Assessment (WERA) and Quick Exposure Checklist (QEC). There were 36 males and 29 females room attendants involved throughout the research. Most of room attendants experienced high exposure level for back, leg, forceful and vibration based on the exposure level evaluation through WERA while QEC results showed that all room attendants were found to have moderate exposure level for risk factors including back for movement use, shoulders/arms, wrists/hands and neck. All the results obtained showed that the related ERFs for MSDs were associated and essential ergonomic interventions are needed in order to eliminate risk of exposures to MSDs among room attendants in hotel industries.

The calculation of maximum permissible exposure levels for laser radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tozer, B.A.

1979-01-01

The maximum permissible exposure data of the revised standard BS 4803 are presented as a set of decision charts which ensure that the user automatically takes into account such details as pulse length and pulse pattern, limiting angular subtense, combinations of multiple wavelength and/or multiple pulse lengths, etc. The two decision charts given are for the calculation of radiation hazards to skin and eye respectively. (author)

Physical activity level and fall risk among community-dwelling older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Low, Sok Teng; Balaraman, Thirumalaya

2017-07-01

[Purpose] To find the physical activity level and fall risk among the community-dwelling Malaysian older adults and determine the correlation between them. [Subjects and Methods] A cross-sectional study was conducted in which, the physical activity level was evaluated using the Rapid Assessment of Physical Activity questionnaire and fall risk with Fall Risk Assessment Tool. Subjects recruited were 132 community-dwelling Malaysian older adults using the convenience sampling method. [Results] The majority of the participants were under the category of under-active regular light-activities and most of them reported low fall risk. The statistical analysis using Fisher's exact test did not show a significant correlation between physical activity level and fall risk. [Conclusion] The majority of community-dwelling Malaysian older adults are performing some form of physical activity and in low fall risk category. But this study did not find any significant correlation between physical activity level and fall risk among community-dwelling older adults in Malaysia.

Levelized cost-risk reduction prioritization of waste disposal options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkinson, V.K.; Young, J.M.

1992-01-01

The prioritization of solid waste disposal options in terms of reduced risk to workers, the public, and the environment has recently generated considerable governmental and public interest. In this paper we address the development of a methodology to establish priorities for waste disposal options, such as incineration, landfills, long-term storage, waste minimization, etc. The study is one result of an overall project to develop methodologies for Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) of non-reactor nuclear facilities for the US Department of Energy. Option preferences are based on a levelized cost-risk reduction analysis. Option rankings are developed as functions of disposal option cost and timing, relative long- and short-term risks, and possible accident scenarios. We examine the annual costs and risks for each option over a large number of years. Risk, in this paper, is defined in terms of annual fatalities (both prompt and long-term) and environmental restoration costs that might result from either an accidental release or long-term exposure to both plant workers and the public near the site or facility. We use event timing to weigh both costs and risks; near-term costs and risks are discounted less than future expenditures and fatalities. This technique levels the timing of cash flows and benefits by converting future costs and benefits to present value costs and benefits. We give an example Levelized Cost-Benefit Analysis of incinerator location options to demonstrate the methodology and required data

7 CFR 762.129 - Percent of guarantee and maximum loss.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... loss. (a) General. The percent of guarantee will not exceed 90 percent based on the credit risk to the lender and the Agency both before and after the transaction. The Agency will determine the percentage of... PLP lenders will not be less than 80 percent. (d) Maximum loss. The maximum amount the Agency will pay...

Output levels of commercially available portable compact disc players and the potential risk to hearing.

Science.gov (United States)

Fligor, Brian J; Cox, L Clarke

2004-12-01

To measure the sound levels generated by the headphones of commercially available portable compact disc players and provide hearing healthcare providers with safety guidelines based on a theoretical noise dose model. Using a Knowles Electronics Manikin for Acoustical Research and a personal computer, output levels across volume control settings were recorded from headphones driven by a standard signal (white noise) and compared with output levels from music samples of eight different genres. Many commercially available models from different manufacturers were investigated. Several different styles of headphones (insert, supra-aural, vertical, and circumaural) were used to determine if style of headphone influenced output level. Free-field equivalent sound pressure levels measured at maximum volume control setting ranged from 91 dBA to 121 dBA. Output levels varied across manufacturers and style of headphone, although generally the smaller the headphone, the higher the sound level for a given volume control setting. Specifically, in one manufacturer, insert earphones increased output level 7-9 dB, relative to the output from stock headphones included in the purchase of the CD player. In a few headphone-CD player combinations, peak sound pressure levels exceeded 130 dB SPL. Based on measured sound pressure levels across systems and the noise dose model recommended by National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health for protecting the occupational worker, a maximum permissible noise dose would typically be reached within 1 hr of listening with the volume control set to 70% of maximum gain using supra-aural headphones. Using headphones that resulted in boosting the output level (e.g., insert earphones used in this study) would significantly decrease the maximum safe volume control setting; this effect was unpredictable from one manufacturer to another. In the interest of providing a straightforward recommendation that should protect the hearing of the majority of

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory low-level waste systems performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-11-01

This Low-Level Radioactive Waste (LLW) Systems Performance Assessment (PA) presents a systematic analysis of the potential risks posed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) waste management system. Potential risks to the public and environment are compared to established performance objectives as required by DOE Order 5820.2A. The report determines the associated maximum individual committed effective dose equivalent (CEDE) to a member of the public from LLW and mixed waste. A maximum annual CEDE of 0.01 mrem could result from routine radioactive liquid effluents. A maximum annual CEDE of 0.003 mrem could result from routine radioactive gaseous effluents. No other pathways for radiation exposure of the public indicated detectable levels of exposure. The dose rate, monitoring, and waste acceptance performance objectives were found to be adequately addressed by the LLNL Program. 88 refs., 3 figs., 17 tabs

Relative sea-level changes and crustal movements in Britain and Ireland since the Last Glacial Maximum

Science.gov (United States)

Shennan, Ian; Bradley, Sarah L.; Edwards, Robin

2018-05-01

The new sea-level database for Britain and Ireland contains >2100 data points from 86 regions and records relative sea-level (RSL) changes over the last 20 ka and across elevations ranging from ∼+40 to -55 m. It reveals radically different patterns of RSL as we move from regions near the centre of the Celtic ice sheet at the last glacial maximum to regions near and beyond the ice limits. Validated sea-level index points and limiting data show good agreement with the broad patterns of RSL change predicted by current glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. The index points show no consistent pattern of synchronous coastal advance and retreat across different regions, ∼100-500 km scale, indicating that within-estuary processes, rather than decimetre- and centennial-scale oscillations in sea level, produce major controls on the temporal pattern of horizontal shifts in coastal sedimentary environments. Comparisons between the database and GIA model predictions for multiple regions provide potentially powerful constraints on various characteristics of global GIA models, including the magnitude of MWP1A, the final deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet and the continued melting of Antarctica after 7 ka BP.

Risk Levels of Toxic Cyanobacteria in Portuguese Recreational Freshwaters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carina Menezes

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Portuguese freshwater reservoirs are important socio-economic resources, namely for recreational use. National legislation concerning bathing waters does not include mandatory levels or guidelines for cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins. This is an issue of concern since cyanotoxin-based evidence is insufficient to change the law, and the collection of scientific evidence has been hampered by the lack of regulatory levels for cyanotoxins in bathing waters. In this work, we evaluate the profile of cyanobacteria and microcystins (MC in eight freshwater reservoirs from the center of Portugal, used for bathing/recreation, in order to determine the risk levels concerning toxic cyanobacteria occurrence. Three of the reservoirs did not pose a risk of MC contamination. However, two reservoirs presented a high risk in 7% of the samples according to the World Health Organization (WHO guidelines for MC in bathing waters (above 20 µg/L. In the remaining three reservoirs, the risk concerning microcystins occurrence was low. However, they exhibited recurrent blooms and persistent contamination with MC up to 4 µg/L. Thus, the risk of exposure to MC and potential acute and/or chronic health outcomes should not be disregarded in these reservoirs. These results contribute to characterize the cyanobacterial blooms profile and to map the risk of toxic cyanobacteria and microcystins occurrence in Portuguese inland waters.

Risks of low-level radiation - the evidence of epidemiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gloag, D.

1980-01-01

The difficulties involved in estimating risks from very low levels of radiation and the use of dose-response models for cancer incidence are discussed with reference to the third BEIR Committee report on the Effects on Populations of Exposure to low levels of Ionizing Radiation (1980). Cancer risk estimates derived from different epidemiological studies are reviewed. They include atom bomb survivors, medically irradiated groups and occupational groups. (36 references). (author)

The last glacial maximum

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, P.U.; Dyke, A.S.; Shakun, J.D.; Carlson, A.E.; Clark, J.; Wohlfarth, B.; Mitrovica, J.X.; Hostetler, S.W.; McCabe, A.M.

2009-01-01

We used 5704 14C, 10Be, and 3He ages that span the interval from 10,000 to 50,000 years ago (10 to 50 ka) to constrain the timing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in terms of global ice-sheet and mountain-glacier extent. Growth of the ice sheets to their maximum positions occurred between 33.0 and 26.5 ka in response to climate forcing from decreases in northern summer insolation, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric CO2. Nearly all ice sheets were at their LGM positions from 26.5 ka to 19 to 20 ka, corresponding to minima in these forcings. The onset of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation 19 to 20 ka was induced by an increase in northern summer insolation, providing the source for an abrupt rise in sea level. The onset of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet occurred between 14 and 15 ka, consistent with evidence that this was the primary source for an abrupt rise in sea level ???14.5 ka.

Brief communication "Fast-track earthquake risk assessment for selected urban areas in Turkey"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Kepekci

2011-02-01

Full Text Available This study is presented as a contribution to earthquake disaster mitigation studies for selected cities in Turkey. The risk evaluations must be based on earthquake hazard analysis and city information. To estimate the ground motion level, data for earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4.5 and an epicenter location within a 100-km radius of each city were used for the period from 1900 to 2006, as recorded at the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for each city was carried out using Poisson probabilistic approaches. Ground motion level was estimated as the probability of a given degree of acceleration with a 10% exceedence rate during a 50-year time period for each city. The risk level of each city was evaluated using the number of houses, the per-capita income of city residents, population, and ground motion levels. The maximum risk level obtained for the cities was taken as a reference value for relative risk assessment, and other risk values were estimated relative to the maximum risk level. When the selected cities were classified according to their relative risk levels, the five most risky cities were found to be, in descending order of risk, Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara, Bursa, and Kocaeli.

Hazards and maximum permissible doses of radiation for man

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walinder, G.

1977-11-01

Maximum permissible dose levels are primarely based on risks for genetic damage and cancer. The reason for this is the observation that such late effects of radiation seem to arise even after doses that are to low to give rise to acute effects. In contrast to the tumour incidence found in irradiated human populations no genetic effects of radiation have been observed in man. This does not mean that genetic effects have not been induced but that it has been impossible to find an increase or to discern them among all the congenital defects, that can not be ascribed to the irradiation. As a consequence, the radiological risk estimation has been concentrated on the hazard of malignant diseases. Tumour risks are generally expressed as excess rates of incidence and mortality per million persons per rem. These figures are, however, not obtained from direct epidemiological observations but have been calculated from such data under the assumption of a linear relationship between effect and radiation dose. This formal extrapolation of observed data involves an uncertainty which, of course, is proportionately greater for the calculated effects in the millirem range. However, although the calculated tumour risks can not be said to be founded on direct scientific evidence, there are scientific reasons to believe that the figures derived from the formal extrapolations constitute an upper limit of possible ri02050

Risk of Soil Recontamination Due to Using Eleusine coracana and Panicum maximum Straw After Phytoremediation of Picloram.

Science.gov (United States)

Nascimento, Alex Favaro; Pires, Fábio Ribeiro; Chagas, Kristhiano; de Oliveira Procópio, Sergio; Oliveira, Marcelo Antonio; Cargnelutti Filho, Alberto; Belo, Alessandra Ferreira; Egreja Filho, Fernando Barboza

2015-01-01

This study aimed to evaluate the herbicidal activity of picloram on the biomass of the remediation plants Eleusine coracana and Panicum maximum after cultivation in a soil contaminated with this herbicide. These species were grown in three soils, differentiated based on texture (clayish, middle, and sandy, with 460, 250, and 40 g kg(-1) of the clay, respectively), previously contaminated with picloram (0, 80, and 160 g ha(-1)). After 90 days, the plants were harvested and an extract was produced by maceration of leaves and stems of these plants. It was applied to pots containing washed sand, comprising a bioassay in a growth chamber using soybean as a bioindicator for picloram. Soil and plant samples were analyzed by HPLC. The results showed the presence of picloram or metabolites with herbicidal activity in the shoots of E. coracana and P. maximum at phytotoxic levels with regard to soybean plants, indicating that they work only as phytoextractors and that the presence of straw on the soil surface can promote recontamination within the area. It is not recommended to cultivate species susceptible to picloram in areas where it was reported remediation by E. indica and P. maximum and still present residues of these species.

[Evaluation of Suicide Risk Levels in Hospitals: Validity and Reliability Tests].

Science.gov (United States)

Macagnino, Sandro; Steinert, Tilman; Uhlmann, Carmen

2018-05-01

Examination of in-hospital suicide risk levels concerning their validity and their reliability. The internal suicide risk levels were evaluated in a cross sectional study of in 163 inpatients. A reliability check was performed via determining interrater-reliability of senior physician, therapist and the responsible nurse. Within the scope of the validity check, we conducted analyses of criterion validity and construct validity. For the total sample an "acceptable" to "good" interrater-reliability (Kendalls W = .77) of suicide risk levels were obtained. Schizophrenic disorders showed the lowest values, for personality disorders we found the highest level of interrater-reliability. When examining the criterion validity, Item-9 of the BDI-II is substantial correlated to our suicide risk levels (ρ m  = .54, p validity check, affective disorders showed the highest correlation (ρ = .77), compatible also with "convergent validity". They differed with schizophrenic disorders which showed the least concordance (ρ = .43). In-hospital suicide risk levels may represent an important contribution to the assessment of suicidal behavior of inpatients experiencing psychiatric treatment due to their overall good validity and reliability. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

A Two-Stage Information-Theoretic Approach to Modeling Landscape-Level Attributes and Maximum Recruitment of Chinook Salmon in the Columbia River Basin.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thompson, William L.; Lee, Danny C.

2000-11-01

Many anadromous salmonid stocks in the Pacific Northwest are at their lowest recorded levels, which has raised questions regarding their long-term persistence under current conditions. There are a number of factors, such as freshwater spawning and rearing habitat, that could potentially influence their numbers. Therefore, we used the latest advances in information-theoretic methods in a two-stage modeling process to investigate relationships between landscape-level habitat attributes and maximum recruitment of 25 index stocks of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Columbia River basin. Our first-stage model selection results indicated that the Ricker-type, stock recruitment model with a constant Ricker a (i.e., recruits-per-spawner at low numbers of fish) across stocks was the only plausible one given these data, which contrasted with previous unpublished findings. Our second-stage results revealed that maximum recruitment of chinook salmon had a strongly negative relationship with percentage of surrounding subwatersheds categorized as predominantly containing U.S. Forest Service and private moderate-high impact managed forest. That is, our model predicted that average maximum recruitment of chinook salmon would decrease by at least 247 fish for every increase of 33% in surrounding subwatersheds categorized as predominantly containing U.S. Forest Service and privately managed forest. Conversely, mean annual air temperature had a positive relationship with salmon maximum recruitment, with an average increase of at least 179 fish for every increase in 2 C mean annual air temperature.

The maximum ground level concentration of air pollutant and the effect of plume rise on concentration estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayhoub, A.B.; Azzam, A.

1991-01-01

The emission of an air pollutant from an elevated point source according to Gaussian plume model has been presented. An elementary theoretical treatment for both the highest possible ground-level concentration and the downwind distance at which this maximum occurs for different stability classes has been constructed. The effective height release modification was taken into consideration. An illustrative case study, namely, the emission from the research reactor in Inchas, has been studied. The results of these analytical treatments and of the derived semi-empirical formulae are discussed and presented in few illustrative diagrams

Area-level poverty and preterm birth risk: A population-based multilevel analysis

Science.gov (United States)

DeFranco, Emily A; Lian, Min; Muglia, Louis A; Schootman, Mario

2008-01-01

Background Preterm birth is a complex disease with etiologic influences from a variety of social, environmental, hormonal, genetic, and other factors. The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based birth registry to estimate the independent effect of county-level poverty on preterm birth risk. To accomplish this, we used a multilevel logistic regression approach to account for multiple co-existent individual-level variables and county-level poverty rate. Methods Population-based study utilizing Missouri's birth certificate database (1989–1997). We conducted a multilevel logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of county-level poverty on PTB risk. Of 634,994 births nested within 115 counties in Missouri, two levels were considered. Individual-level variables included demographics factors, prenatal care, health-related behavioral risk factors, and medical risk factors. The area-level variable included the percentage of the population within each county living below the poverty line (US census data, 1990). Counties were divided into quartiles of poverty; the first quartile (lowest rate of poverty) was the reference group. Results PTB rate of PTB poverty and increased through the 4th quartile (4.9%), p poverty was significantly associated with PTB risk. PTB risk (poverty, adjusted odds ratio (adjOR) 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.35), with a similar effect at earlier gestational ages (birth, above other underlying risk factors. Although the risk increase is modest, it affects a large number of pregnancies. PMID:18793437

Concussions in Community-Level Rugby: Risk, Knowledge, and Attitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, R Kyle; Hrubeniuk, Travis J; Witiw, Christopher D; MacDonald, Peter; Leiter, Jeff

Rugby is a popular collision sport where participants are at risk of sustaining concussions. Most research focuses on elite-level or youth divisions. Comparatively, little is known about adult community rugby. The aim of this research was to estimate the risk of sustaining a concussion during participation in community-level rugby and summarize the collective knowledge and attitudes toward concussions. Concussion symptoms will be reported frequently among community-level rugby players and a substantial proportion will report a willingness to continue participation despite the risk. Cross-sectional analysis. Level 3. An anonymous, voluntary survey was administered to all 464 senior rugby players registered in the province of Manitoba in 2015. Two primary domains were assessed: (1) concussion history from the preceding season including occurrence, symptomatology, and impact on daily activities and (2) knowledge and attitudes toward concussion risks and management. In total, 284 (61.2%) rugby players responded. Concussive symptoms were reported by 106 (37.3%). Of those, 87% were formally diagnosed with a concussion and 27% missed school and/or work as a result. The danger of playing while symptomatic was recognized by 93.7% of participants, yet 29% indicated they would continue while symptomatic. Furthermore, 39% felt they were letting others down if they stopped playing due to a concussion. Concussive symptoms were common among the study cohort and had a notable impact on daily activities. A high proportion of players were willing to continue while experiencing symptoms despite recognizing the danger. The observed discord between knowledge and attitudes implicates a culture of "playing injured." Understanding the risk of injury may affect an individual's decision to participate in community-level rugby. Moreover, evidence of discord between the knowledge and attitudes of players may direct future research initiatives and league governance.

Extreme Bilirubin Levels as a Causal Risk Factor for Symptomatic Gallstone Disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stender, Stefan; Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; Nordestgaard, Børge G

2013-01-01

In individuals without blockage of their bile ducts, levels of plasma bilirubin likely reflect levels of biliary bilirubin; higher biliary bilirubin levels may increase the risk of gallstone disease.......In individuals without blockage of their bile ducts, levels of plasma bilirubin likely reflect levels of biliary bilirubin; higher biliary bilirubin levels may increase the risk of gallstone disease....

Ferritin levels and risk of heart failure-the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Silvestre, Odilson M; Gonçalves, Alexandra; Nadruz, Wilson; Claggett, Brian; Couper, David; Eckfeldt, John H; Pankow, James S; Anker, Stefan D; Solomon, Scott D

2017-03-01

Severe iron overload is associated with cardiac damage, while iron deficiency has been related to worse outcomes in subjects with heart failure (HF). This study investigated the relationship between ferritin, a marker of iron status, and the incidence of HF in a community-based cohort. We examined 1063 participants who were free of heart failure from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study in whom ferritin serum levels were measured at baseline (1987-1989). The participants (mean age 52.7 ± 5.5 years, 62% women), were categorized in low (200 ng/mL in women and >300 ng/mL in men; n = 247) ferritin levels. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between ferritin and incident HF. After 21 ± 4.6 years of follow-up, HF occurred in 144 (13.5%) participants. When compared with participants with normal ferritin levels, participants with low ferritin levels had a higher risk of HF [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-4.35; P = 0.02] as did those with high ferritin levels (HR = 1.81, 95% CI 1.01-3.25; P = 0.04), after adjusting for potential confounders. Notably, low ferritin levels remained associated with incident HF even after excluding subjects with anaemia (HR = 2.28, 95% CI 1.11-4.68; P = 0.03). Derangements in iron metabolism, either low or high ferritin serum levels, were associated with higher risk of incident HF in a general population, even without concurrent anaemia. These findings suggest that iron imbalance might play a role in the development of HF. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2016 European Society of Cardiology.

Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, D.R.

1980-01-01

Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes

Experimental verification of the imposing principle for maximum permissible levels of multicolor laser radiation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivashin V.A.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Aims. The study presents the results of experimental research to verify the principle overlay for maximum permissible levels (MPL of multicolor laser radiation single exposure on eyes. This principle of the independence of the effects of radiation with each wavelength (the imposing principle, was founded and generalized to a wide range of exposure conditions. Experimental verification of this approach in relation to the impact of laser radiation on tissue fundus of an eye, as shows the analysis of the literature was not carried out. Material and methods. Was used in the experimental laser generating radiation with wavelengths: Л1 =0,532 microns, A2=0,556to 0,562 microns and A3=0,619to 0,621 urn. Experiments were carried out on eyes of rabbits with evenly pigmented eye bottom. Results. At comparison of results of processing of the experimental data with the calculated data it is shown that these levels are close by their parameters. Conclusions. For the first time in the Russian Federation had been performed experimental studies on the validity of multi-colored laser radiation on the organ of vision. In view of the objective coincidence of the experimental data with the calculated data, we can conclude that the mathematical formulas work.

Area-level poverty and preterm birth risk: A population-based multilevel analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muglia Louis A

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Preterm birth is a complex disease with etiologic influences from a variety of social, environmental, hormonal, genetic, and other factors. The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based birth registry to estimate the independent effect of county-level poverty on preterm birth risk. To accomplish this, we used a multilevel logistic regression approach to account for multiple co-existent individual-level variables and county-level poverty rate. Methods Population-based study utilizing Missouri's birth certificate database (1989–1997. We conducted a multilevel logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of county-level poverty on PTB risk. Of 634,994 births nested within 115 counties in Missouri, two levels were considered. Individual-level variables included demographics factors, prenatal care, health-related behavioral risk factors, and medical risk factors. The area-level variable included the percentage of the population within each county living below the poverty line (US census data, 1990. Counties were divided into quartiles of poverty; the first quartile (lowest rate of poverty was the reference group. Results PTB th quartile (4.9%, p adjOR 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.35, with a similar effect at earlier gestational ages (adjOR 1.27 (95% CI 1.06, 1.52. Conclusion Women residing in socioeconomically deprived areas are at increased risk of preterm birth, above other underlying risk factors. Although the risk increase is modest, it affects a large number of pregnancies.

Recommendation of maximum allowable noise levels for offshore wind power systems; Empfehlung von Laermschutzwerten bei der Errichtung von Offshore-Windenergieanlagen (OWEA)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Werner, Stefanie [Umweltbundesamt, Dessau-Rosslau (Germany). Fachgebiet II 2.3

2011-05-15

When offshore wind farms are constructed, every single pile is hammered into the sediment by a hydraulic hammer. Noise levels at Horns Reef wind farm were in the range of 235 dB. The noise may cause damage to the auditory system of marine mammals. The Federal Environmental Office therefore recommends the definition of maximum permissible noise levels. Further, care should be taken that no marine mammals are found in the immediate vicinity of the construction site. (AKB)

Particle Swarm Optimization Based of the Maximum Photovoltaic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Photovoltaic electricity is seen as an important source of renewable energy. The photovoltaic array is an unstable source of power since the peak power point depends on the temperature and the irradiation level. A maximum peak power point tracking is then necessary for maximum efficiency. In this work, a Particle Swarm ...

Low-level radiation: a review of current estimates of hazards to human populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myers, D.K.

1977-12-01

Mankind has always lived with low levels of ionizing radiation from natural sources. This ionizing radiation may induce cancers in irradiated persons and genetic defects in the descendents of irradiated persons. The internationally accepted estimates of risks suggest that the numbers of cancers and genetic defects induced in the general population by natural background radiation are not more than about 1% of the numbers of cancers and genetic defects normally present in the general population. The added risks to the general public due to any prospective nuclear power program are minute compared to those from background radiation. At the maximum permissible levels of radiation exposures for occupational workers, the predicted number of fatal cancers induced would lead to a reduction in average life-span from 73.0 years to about 72.7 years. Since occupational exposures are usually much less than maximum permissible levels, the risks are correspondingly reduced. These occupational risks are comparable to those in most other industries and occupations. Some areas of uncertainty in the accepted risk estimates are discussed in detail in this review. (author)

County-level job automation risk and health: Evidence from the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Pankaj C; Devaraj, Srikant; Hicks, Michael J; Wornell, Emily J

2018-04-01

Previous studies have observed a positive association between automation risk and employment loss. Based on the job insecurity-health risk hypothesis, greater exposure to automation risk could also be negatively associated with health outcomes. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the county-level association between prevalence of workers in jobs exposed to automation risk and general, physical, and mental health outcomes. As a preliminary assessment of the job insecurity-health risk hypothesis (automation risk → job insecurity → poorer health), a structural equation model was used based on individual-level data in the two cross-sectional waves (2012 and 2014) of General Social Survey (GSS). Next, using county-level data from County Health Rankings 2017, American Community Survey (ACS) 2015, and Statistics of US Businesses 2014, Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression models were fitted to predict county-level health outcomes. Using the 2012 and 2014 waves of the GSS, employees in occupational classes at higher risk of automation reported more job insecurity, that, in turn, was associated with poorer health. The 2SLS estimates show that a 10% increase in automation risk at county-level is associated with 2.38, 0.8, and 0.6 percentage point lower general, physical, and mental health, respectively. Evidence suggests that exposure to automation risk may be negatively associated with health outcomes, plausibly through perceptions of poorer job security. More research is needed on interventions aimed at mitigating negative influence of automation risk on health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2002-01-01

Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

Maximum drawdown and the allocation to real estate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hamelink, F.; Hoesli, M.

2004-01-01

The role of real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio is investigated when the maximum drawdown (hereafter MaxDD), rather than the standard deviation, is used as the measure of risk. In particular, it is analysed whether the discrepancy between the optimal allocation to real estate and the actual

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

Science.gov (United States)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

2018-05-01

The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

Risk factors for unstable blood glucose level: integrative review of the risk factors related to the nursing diagnosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andressa Magalhães Teixeira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to identify evidence in the literature on the possible risk factors for the risk of unstable blood glucose diagnosis in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and to compare them with the risk factors described by NANDA International. Method: an integrative literature review guided by the question: what are the risk factors for unstable blood glucose level in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus? Primary studies were included whose outcomes were variations in glycemic levels, published in English, Portuguese or Spanish, in PubMed or CINAHL between 2010 and 2015. Results: altered levels of glycated hemoglobin, body mass index>31 kg/m2, previous history of hypoglycemia, cognitive deficit/dementia, autonomic cardiovascular neuropathy, comorbidities and weight loss corresponded to risk factors described in NANDA International. Other risk factors identified were: advanced age, black skin color, longer length of diabetes diagnosis, daytime sleepiness, macroalbuminuria, genetic polymorphisms, insulin therapy, use of oral antidiabetics, and use of metoclopramide, inadequate physical activity and low fasting glycemia. Conclusions: risk factors for the diagnosis, risk for unstable blood glucose level, for persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus were identified, and 42% of them corresponded to those of NANDA International. These findings may contribute to the practice of clinical nurses in preventing the deleterious effects of glycemic variation.

Stochastic Model for Population Exposed to Low Level Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merkle, J.M.

1996-01-01

In this paper the stochastic model for population size, i.e. calculation of the number of deaths due to lethal stochastic health effects caused by the exposure to low level ionising radiation is presented. The model is defined for subpopulation with parameter (a, b) being fixed. Using the corresponding density function, it is possible to find all the quantities of interest by averaging over whole possible values for (a, l). All processes ar at first defined for one radionuclide, exposure pathway and the health effect under consideration. The results obtained in this paper are the basic quantities in the risk assessment, loss of life expectancy etc. The results presented in this paper are also applicable to the other sources of low level risk, not only the radiation risk

Hormonal levels among HIV-1-seropositive women compared with high-risk HIV-seronegative women during the menstrual cycle. Women's Health Study (WHS) 001 and WHS 001a Study Team.

Science.gov (United States)

Cu-Uvin, S; Wright, D J; Anderson, D; Kovacs, A; Watts, D H; Cohn, J; Landay, A; Reichelderfer, P S

2000-10-01

There is a paucity of normative data on hormonal levels among HIV-infected women. Hormonal levels may influence fertility and HIV-related immunological and virological factors. The objective of this study was to determine progesterone and estradiol levels during the menstrual cycle in HIV-seropositive women compared with high-risk seronegative women. The study enrolled 55 HIV-infected and 10 high-risk uninfected women with self-reported regular menstrual cycles (25-30-day cycles). Progesterone and estradiol levels were determined on a weekly basis for 8 weeks. The analysis included evaluations from the first complete menstrual cycle for the 54 HIV-infected and 9 uninfected women who had at least one complete cycle. The median age was 35 years for HIV-infected women and 36 years for uninfected women. The median CD4+ count for HIV-seropositive women was 210 cells/mm3. The median menstrual cycle length was 28 days (range 22-49 days) for HIV-infected women and 25 days (range 24-44 days) for uninfected women. The maximum progesterone level during the luteal phase was normal (>3.0 ng/ml) for 52 (96%) of 54 HIV-seropositive women and 7 (78%) of 9 HIV-seronegative women (p = 0.09, Fisher's exact test). The median maximum progesterone level was 12.2 ng/ml in HIV-seropositive women and 7.2 ng/ml in HIV-seronegative women (p = 0.07, Wilcoxon test). The median maximum estradiol value during the follicular phase was 148 pg/ml for HIV-seropositive women and 111 pg/ml for HIV-seronegative women (p = 0.04, Wilcoxon test). Among HIV-infected women, there were no significant differences in progesterone and estradiol levels by antiretroviral therapy, baseline plasma viral load, or median CD4+ cell count. We conclude that HIV-infected women with self-reported normal menstrual cycles have normal levels of progesterone and estradiol during the menstrual cycle.

Estimating the risk of bladder and kidney cancer from exposure to low-levels of arsenic in drinking water, Nova Scotia, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Saint-Jacques, Nathalie; Brown, Patrick; Nauta, Laura; Boxall, James; Parker, Louise; Dummer, Trevor J B

2018-01-01

Arsenic in drinking water impacts health. Highest levels of arsenic have been historically observed in Taiwan and Bangladesh but the contaminant has been affecting the health of people globally. Strong associations have been confirmed between exposure to high-levels of arsenic in drinking water and a wide range of diseases, including cancer. However, at lower levels of exposure, especially near the current World Health Organization regulatory limit (10μg/L), this association is inconsistent as the effects are mostly extrapolated from high exposure studies. This ecological study used Bayesian inference to model the relative risk of bladder and kidney cancer at these lower concentrations-0-2μg/L; 2-5μg/L and; ≥5μg/L of arsenic-in 864 bladder and 525 kidney cancers diagnosed in the study area, Nova Scotia, Canada between 1998 and 2010. The model included proxy measures of lifestyle (e.g. smoking) and accounted for spatial dependencies. Overall, bladder cancer risk was 16% (2-5μg/L) and 18% (≥5μg/L) greater than that of the referent group (water arsenic-levels within the current the World Health Organization maximum acceptable concentration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of free statistical software enabling researchers to calculate confidence levels, clinical significance curves and risk-benefit contours

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shakespeare, T.P.; Mukherjee, R.K.; Gebski, V.J.

2003-01-01

Confidence levels, clinical significance curves, and risk-benefit contours are tools improving analysis of clinical studies and minimizing misinterpretation of published results, however no software has been available for their calculation. The objective was to develop software to help clinicians utilize these tools. Excel 2000 spreadsheets were designed using only built-in functions, without macros. The workbook was protected and encrypted so that users can modify only input cells. The workbook has 4 spreadsheets for use in studies comparing two patient groups. Sheet 1 comprises instructions and graphic examples for use. Sheet 2 allows the user to input the main study results (e.g. survival rates) into a 2-by-2 table. Confidence intervals (95%), p-value and the confidence level for Treatment A being better than Treatment B are automatically generated. An additional input cell allows the user to determine the confidence associated with a specified level of benefit. For example if the user wishes to know the confidence that Treatment A is at least 10% better than B, 10% is entered. Sheet 2 automatically displays clinical significance curves, graphically illustrating confidence levels for all possible benefits of one treatment over the other. Sheet 3 allows input of toxicity data, and calculates the confidence that one treatment is more toxic than the other. It also determines the confidence that the relative toxicity of the most effective arm does not exceed user-defined tolerability. Sheet 4 automatically calculates risk-benefit contours, displaying the confidence associated with a specified scenario of minimum benefit and maximum risk of one treatment arm over the other. The spreadsheet is freely downloadable at www.ontumor.com/professional/statistics.htm A simple, self-explanatory, freely available spreadsheet calculator was developed using Excel 2000. The incorporated decision-making tools can be used for data analysis and improve the reporting of results of any

Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

2000-09-26

The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

Risk assessments for the disposal of high level radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, C.F.

1975-01-01

The risks associated with the disposal of high level wastes derive from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The assessment of these risks requires a methodology for risk analysis, an identification of the radioactive sources, and a method by which to express the relative hazard of the various radionuclides that comprise the high level waste. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out after a review of previous work in the area of probabilistic risk assessment. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. At the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected thirty-five year nuclear power program is determined

Suitability of the charm HVS and a microbiological multiplate system for detection of residues in raw milk at EU maximum residue levels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nouws, J.F.M.; Egmond, van H.; Loeffen, G.; Schouten, J.; Keukens, H.; Smulders, I.; Stegeman, H.

1999-01-01

In this paper we assessed the suitability of the Charm HVS and a newly developed microbiological multiplate system as post-screening tests to confirm the presence of residues in raw milk at or near the maximum permissible residue level (MRL). The multiplate system is composed of Bacillus

Quantile-based Bayesian maximum entropy approach for spatiotemporal modeling of ambient air quality levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsin

2013-02-05

Understanding the daily changes in ambient air quality concentrations is important to the assessing human exposure and environmental health. However, the fine temporal scales (e.g., hourly) involved in this assessment often lead to high variability in air quality concentrations. This is because of the complex short-term physical and chemical mechanisms among the pollutants. Consequently, high heterogeneity is usually present in not only the averaged pollution levels, but also the intraday variance levels of the daily observations of ambient concentration across space and time. This characteristic decreases the estimation performance of common techniques. This study proposes a novel quantile-based Bayesian maximum entropy (QBME) method to account for the nonstationary and nonhomogeneous characteristics of ambient air pollution dynamics. The QBME method characterizes the spatiotemporal dependence among the ambient air quality levels based on their location-specific quantiles and accounts for spatiotemporal variations using a local weighted smoothing technique. The epistemic framework of the QBME method can allow researchers to further consider the uncertainty of space-time observations. This study presents the spatiotemporal modeling of daily CO and PM10 concentrations across Taiwan from 1998 to 2009 using the QBME method. Results show that the QBME method can effectively improve estimation accuracy in terms of lower mean absolute errors and standard deviations over space and time, especially for pollutants with strong nonhomogeneous variances across space. In addition, the epistemic framework can allow researchers to assimilate the site-specific secondary information where the observations are absent because of the common preferential sampling issues of environmental data. The proposed QBME method provides a practical and powerful framework for the spatiotemporal modeling of ambient pollutants.

Considerations on the establishment of maximum permissible exposure of man

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobi, W.

1974-01-01

An attempt is made in the information lecture to give a quantitative analysis of the somatic radiation risk and to illustrate a concept to fix dose limiting values. Of primary importance is the limiting values. Of primary importance is the limiting value of the radiation exposure to the whole population. By consequential application of the risk concept, the following points are considered: 1) Definition of the risk for radiation late damages (cancer, leukemia); 2) relationship between radiation dose and thus caused radiation risk; 3) radiation risk and the dose limiting values at the time; 4) criteria for the maximum acceptable radiation risk; 5) limiting value which can be expected at the time. (HP/LH) [de

Heavy metal levels in kiwifruit orchard soils and trees and its potential health risk assessment in Shaanxi, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Jing; Yue, Tianli; Li, Xiaotong; Yuan, Yahong

2016-07-01

Concentrations of five heavy metals (Cr, Cu, Cd, Hg, and Pb) in orchard soils and kiwifruit tissues (root, twig, leave, fruit) collected from Shaanxi province in China were measured, and the potential health risk for human through the fruit consumption was assessed. The orchard soils were in no pollution for Cr, Cu, Hg, and Pb, with their pollution index (PI) ≤1, while 10.0 % of the soil samples were under Cd contamination. Furthermore, kiwifruit tended to have a higher Cd and Hg accumulation (as indicated by Biological Accumulation Coefficient) from soil and have a higher Cu and Hg translocation (as reflected by Biological Transfer Coefficient) to aboveground parts. From the human health point of view, the DIM and HRI values for all the fruit samples were within the safe limits, while for Cr, Cu, Cd, Hg, and Pb, about 22.5, 12.5, 52.5, 15.0, and 47.5 % of the fruit samples exceeded the national maximum permissible levels, respectively. These results showed that, although there was no possible health risk to consumers due to intake of studied kiwifruit fruits under the current consumption rate, the regular survey of heavy metal pollution levels should be performed for the kiwifruit in Shaanxi province and a strict management program should be established to reduce the amount of chemical fertilizers and pesticides used in fruit production in order to prevent the potential health risk.

Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

Science.gov (United States)

Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

2015-03-01

This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

Adversarial risk analysis with incomplete information: a level-k approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Rothschild, Casey; McLay, Laura; Guikema, Seth

2012-07-01

This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level-k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level-k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend-attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

2015-01-22

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

Sound Levels and Risk Perceptions of Music Students During Classes.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, Matilde A; Amorim, Marta; Silva, Manuela V; Neves, Paula; Sousa, Aida; Inácio, Octávio

2015-01-01

It is well recognized that professional musicians are at risk of hearing damage due to the exposure to high sound pressure levels during music playing. However, it is important to recognize that the musicians' exposure may start early in the course of their training as students in the classroom and at home. Studies regarding sound exposure of music students and their hearing disorders are scarce and do not take into account important influencing variables. Therefore, this study aimed to describe sound level exposures of music students at different music styles, classes, and according to the instrument played. Further, this investigation attempted to analyze the perceptions of students in relation to exposure to loud music and consequent health risks, as well as to characterize preventive behaviors. The results showed that music students are exposed to high sound levels in the course of their academic activity. This exposure is potentiated by practice outside the school and other external activities. Differences were found between music style, instruments, and classes. Tinnitus, hyperacusis, diplacusis, and sound distortion were reported by the students. However, students were not entirely aware of the health risks related to exposure to high sound pressure levels. These findings reflect the importance of starting intervention in relation to noise risk reduction at an early stage, when musicians are commencing their activity as students.

Association of urinary metals levels with type 2 diabetes risk in coke oven workers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Bing; Feng, Wei; Wang, Jing; Li, Yaru; Han, Xu; Hu, Hua; Guo, Huan; Zhang, Xiaomin; He, Meian

2016-01-01

Background: Studies indicated that occupationally exposed to metals could result in oxidative damage and inflammation and increase cardiovascular diseases risk. However, epidemiological studies about the associations of metals exposure with diabetes risk among coke oven workers were limited. Objectives: This study aims to investigate the potential associations of 23 metals levels with the risk of diabetes among coke oven workers. Methods: The analysis was conducted in a cross-sectional study including 1493 participants. Urinary metals and urinary polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) metabolites levels were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer and gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate the associations of urinary metal levels with diabetes risk with adjustment for potential confounding factors including gender, age, BMI, education, smoking, drinking, physical activity, hypertension, hyperlipidemia and urinary PAHs metabolites levels. Results: Compared with the normoglycemia group, the levels of urinary copper, zinc, arsenic, selenium, molybdenum, and cadmium were significantly higher in the diabetes group (all p < 0.05). Participants with the highest tertile of urinary copper and zinc had 2.12 (95%CI: 1.12–4.01) and 5.43 (95%CI: 2.61–11.30) fold risk of diabetes. Similar results were found for hyperglycemia risk. Besides, participants with the highest tertile of manganese, barium, and lead had 1.65(1.22–2.23), 1.60(1.19–2.16) and 1.45(1.05–1.99) fold risk of hyperglycemia when compared with the lowest tertlie. Conclusion: The results indicated that the urinary copper and zinc levels were positively associated with the risk of diabetes and hyperglycemia among coke oven workers. Urinary manganese, barium and lead levels were also associated with increased risk of hyperglycemia independently of other traditional risk factors. These findings need further validation

Risk perception of tsunami in the community of Arauco, Chile - a contribution of risk perception to disaster risk management at local level

Science.gov (United States)

Kubisch, M. Sc. Susanne; Edilia Jaque Castillo, Dra.; Braun, JProf. Andreas Ch., ,, Dr.

2017-04-01

The research was carried out in the city center of the coastal community of Arauco, Central Chile. The community of Arauco was one of the most affected communities of the tsunami in Chile, the 27th of February 2010. For the data evaluation, the affected inhabitants of the community have been surveyed via standardized questionnaires. Furthermore experts of different fields, amongst others, Disaster Risk Management (DRM), risk education, urban and regional planning, as well as geology have been consulted in form of expert interviews. The results revealed a high risk perception part of the affected community and a weakness of DRM especially at local level, which opens a gap between the evaluation and treatment of risk by experts and risk perception of the affected community. The risk perception of the affected community, here, is predominantly determined by ecological vulnerability, expressed in direct and indirect experience of a tsunami and by institutional vulnerability, expressed among others by a weakness of DRM at local level and a mistrust in responsible institutions for DRM. Due to the institutional vulnerability and the mistrust in responsible institutions we recommend a Community Based Approach (CBA) to strengthen DRM at local level and to take advantage of the high risk perception and knowledge of the affected community. Involving the community in DRM, we assume to close the gap between risk evaluation of experts and risk perception of the inhabitants and to come up with the unique necessities and conditions at local level. Especially in centralized countries, DRM is less effective, because at the one hand, decisions are made distant from the affected communities, so that measures often do not come up with the unique conditions and necessities at local level, and on the other hand measures often do not find acceptance by the affected community. Furthermore centralized DRM is often not effective and quick in response in case of emergency. Another obstacle

Changes in Classes of Injury-Related Risks and Consequences of Risk-Level Drinking: a Latent Transition Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cochran, Gerald; Field, Craig; Caetano, Raul

2015-07-01

Risk-level drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related violence are risk factors that result in injuries. The current study sought to identify which subgroups of patients experience the most behavioral change following a brief intervention. A secondary analysis of data from a brief alcohol intervention study was conducted. The sample (N = 664) includes at-risk drinkers who experienced an injury and were admitted for care to a Level 1 trauma center. Injury-related items from the Short Inventory of Problems+6 were used to perform a latent transition analysis to describe class transitions participants experienced following discharge. Four classes emerged for the year before and after the current injury. Most individuals transitioned from higher-risk classes into those with lower risk. Some participants maintained risky profiles, and others increased risks and consequences. Drinking and driving remained a persistent problem among the study participants. Although a large portion of intervention recipients improved risks and consequences of alcohol use following discharge, more intensive intervention services may be needed for a subset of patients who showed little or no improvement.

Extreme lipoprotein(a) levels and risk of myocardial infarction in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kamstrup, Pia R; Benn, Marianne; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne

2008-01-01

Elevated lipoprotein(a) levels are associated with myocardial infarction (MI) in some but not all studies. Limitations of previous studies include lack of risk estimates for extreme lipoprotein(a) levels, measurements in long-term frozen samples, no correction for regression dilution bias, and lack...... of absolute risk estimates in the general population. We tested the hypothesis that extreme lipoprotein(a) levels predict MI in the general population, measuring levels shortly after sampling, correcting for regression dilution bias, and calculating hazard ratios and absolute risk estimates....

Risk comparison of different treatment and disposal strategies of high level liquid radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang Dong

1997-01-01

The risk of different treatment and disposal strategies of high level liquid radioactive waste from spent fuel reprocessing is estimated and compared. The conclusions obtained are that risk difference from these strategies is very small and high level liquid waste can be reduced to middle and low level waste, if the decontamination factor for 99 Tc is large enough, which is the largest risk contributor in the high level radioactive waste from spent fuel reprocessing. It is also shown that the risk of high level radioactive waste could be reduced by the technical strategy of combining partitioning and transmutation

Low-level radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myers, D.K.

1982-05-01

It is known that the normal incidence of cancer in human populations is increased by exposure to moderately high doses of ionizing radiation. At background radiation levels or at radiation levels which are 100 times greater, the potential health risks are considered to be directly proportional to the total accumulated dose of radiation. Some of the uncertainties associated with this assumption and with the accepted risk estimates have been critically reviewed in this document. The general scientific consensus at present suggests that the accepted risk estimates may exaggerate the actual risk of low levels of sparsely ionizing radiations (beta-, gamma- or X-rays) somewhat but are unlikely to overestimate the actual risks of densely ionizing radiations (fast neutrons, alpha-particles). At the maximum permissible levels of exposure for radiation workers in nuclear power stations, the potential health hazards in terms of life expectancy would be comparable to those encountered in transportation and public utilities or in the construction industry. At the average radiation exposures received by these workers in practice, the potential health hazards are similar to those associated with safe categories of industries. Uranium mining remains a relativly hazardous occupation. In terms of absolute numbers, the genetic hazards, which are less well established, are thought to be smaller than the carcinogenic hazards of radiation when only the first generation is considered but to be of the same order of magnitude as the carcinogenic hazards when the total number of induced genetic disorders is summed over all generations

Evaluating the Spatial Distribution of Quantitative Risk and Hazard Level of Arsenic Exposure in Groundwater, case Study of Qorveh County, Kurdistan Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Touraj Nasrabadi

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Regional distribution of quantitative risk and hazard levels due to arsenic poisoning in some parts of Iran’s Kurdistan province is considered. To investigate the potential risk and hazard level regarding arsenic-contaminated drinking water and further carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects on villagers, thirteen wells in rural areas of Qorveh County were considered for evaluation of arsenic concentration in water. Sampling campaign was performed in August 2010 and arsenic concentration was measured via the Silver Diethyldithiocarbamate method. The highest and lowest arsenic concentration are reported in Guilaklu and Qezeljakand villages with 420 and 67 μg/L, respectively. None of thirteen water samples met the maximum contaminant level issued by USEPA and Institute of Standards and Industrial Research of Iran (10 ppb. The highest arsenic concentration and consequently risk and hazard levels belong to villages situated alongside the eastern frontiers of the county. Existence of volcanic activities within the upper Miocene and Pleistocene in this part of the study area may be addressed as the main geopogenic source of arsenic pollution. Quantitative risk values are varying from 1.49E-03 in Qezeljakand to 8.92E-03 in Guilaklu and may be interpreted as very high when compared by similar studies in Iran. Regarding non-carcinogenic effects, all thirteen water samples are considered hazardous while all calculated chronic daily intakes are greater than arsenic reference dose. Such drinking water source has the potential to impose adverse carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects on villagers. Accordingly, an urgent decision must be made to substitute the current drinking water source with a safer one.

Maximum vehicle cabin temperatures under different meteorological conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Grundstein, Andrew; Meentemeyer, Vernon; Dowd, John

2009-05-01

A variety of studies have documented the dangerously high temperatures that may occur within the passenger compartment (cabin) of cars under clear sky conditions, even at relatively low ambient air temperatures. Our study, however, is the first to examine cabin temperatures under variable weather conditions. It uses a unique maximum vehicle cabin temperature dataset in conjunction with directly comparable ambient air temperature, solar radiation, and cloud cover data collected from April through August 2007 in Athens, GA. Maximum cabin temperatures, ranging from 41-76°C, varied considerably depending on the weather conditions and the time of year. Clear days had the highest cabin temperatures, with average values of 68°C in the summer and 61°C in the spring. Cloudy days in both the spring and summer were on average approximately 10°C cooler. Our findings indicate that even on cloudy days with lower ambient air temperatures, vehicle cabin temperatures may reach deadly levels. Additionally, two predictive models of maximum daily vehicle cabin temperatures were developed using commonly available meteorological data. One model uses maximum ambient air temperature and average daily solar radiation while the other uses cloud cover percentage as a surrogate for solar radiation. From these models, two maximum vehicle cabin temperature indices were developed to assess the level of danger. The models and indices may be useful for forecasting hazardous conditions, promoting public awareness, and to estimate past cabin temperatures for use in forensic analyses.

On risk assessment of high level radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, C.F.; Kastenberg, W.E.

1976-01-01

One of the major concerns with the continued growth of the nuclear power industry is the production of the high level radioactive wastes. The risks associated with the disposal of these wastes derives from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. In the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected 35 year nuclear power program is determined. An index of relative nuclide hazard appropriate to problems involving the management of high level radioactive wastes is developed. As an illustration of the methodology, risk analyses are made for two proposed methods for waste management: extraterrestrial disposal and interim surface storage. The results of these analyses indicate that, within the assumptions used, the risks of these management schemes are small compared with natural background radiation doses. (Auth.)

Radiological health risks from accidents during transportation of spent nuclear fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S.Y.; Yuan, Y.C.

1988-01-01

Potential radiological health risks from severe accident scenarios during the transportation of spent nuclear fuels are estimated. These extremely low probability, but potentially credible, scenarios are characterized by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Modal Study in terms of the maximum credible structural responses and/or the maximum credible cask temperature responses. In some accident scenarios, the spent nuclear fuel casks are assumed to be breached, resulting in the release of radioactivity to the atmosphere. Models have been developed to estimate radiological health consequences, including potential short-term exposures and health effects to individuals and potential long-term environmental dose commitments and health effects to the population. The population risks are calculated using state-level data, and the resulting overall health risks are compared for several levels of cleanup effort to determine the relative effects on long-term risks to the population in the event of an accident. 4 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

Review of the controversy on risks from low levels of radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higson, D.

2001-01-01

The need for regulation of low levels of radiation exposure, and the estimation of risks from such exposures, are based on the assumption that risk is proportional to dose without a threshold, the 'linear no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis'. This assumption is not supported by scientific data. There is no clear evidence of harm from low levels of exposure, up to at least 20 mSv (acute dose) or total dose rates of at least 50 mSv per year. Even allowing for reasonable extrapolation from radiation levels at which harmful effects have been observed, the LNT assumption should not be used to estimate risks from doses less than 100 mSv. Laboratory and epidemiological evidence, and evolutionary expectations of biological effects from low level radiation, suggest that beneficial health effects (sometimes called 'radiation hormesis') are at least as likely as harmful effects from such exposures. Controversy on this matter strikes at the basis of radiation protection practice

Serum osteoprotegerin levels and mammographic density among high-risk women.

Science.gov (United States)

Moran, Olivia; Zaman, Tasnim; Eisen, Andrea; Demsky, Rochelle; Blackmore, Kristina; Knight, Julia A; Elser, Christine; Ginsburg, Ophira; Zbuk, Kevin; Yaffe, Martin; Narod, Steven A; Salmena, Leonardo; Kotsopoulos, Joanne

2018-06-01

Mammographic density is a risk factor for breast cancer but the mechanism behind this association is unclear. The receptor activator of nuclear factor κB (RANK)/RANK ligand (RANKL) pathway has been implicated in the development of breast cancer. Given the role of RANK signaling in mammary epithelial cell proliferation, we hypothesized this pathway may also be associated with mammographic density. Osteoprotegerin (OPG), a decoy receptor for RANKL, is known to inhibit RANK signaling. Thus, it is of interest to evaluate whether OPG levels modify breast cancer risk through mammographic density. We quantified serum OPG levels in 57 premenopausal and 43 postmenopausal women using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Cumulus was used to measure percent density, dense area, and non-dense area for each mammographic image. Subjects were classified into high versus low OPG levels based on the median serum OPG level in the entire cohort (115.1 pg/mL). Multivariate models were used to assess the relationship between serum OPG levels and the measures of mammographic density. Serum OPG levels were not associated with mammographic density among premenopausal women (P ≥ 0.42). Among postmenopausal women, those with low serum OPG levels had higher mean percent mammographic density (20.9% vs. 13.7%; P = 0.04) and mean dense area (23.4 cm 2 vs. 15.2 cm 2 ; P = 0.02) compared to those with high serum OPG levels after covariate adjustment. These findings suggest that low OPG levels may be associated with high mammographic density, particularly in postmenopausal women. Targeting RANK signaling may represent a plausible, non-surgical prevention option for high-risk women with high mammographic density, especially those with low circulating OPG levels.

Determining Maximum Photovoltaic Penetration in a Distribution Grid considering Grid Operation Limits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kordheili, Reza Ahmadi; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

2014-01-01

High penetration of photovoltaic panels in distribution grid can bring the grid to its operation limits. The main focus of the paper is to determine maximum photovoltaic penetration level in the grid. Three main criteria were investigated for determining maximum penetration level of PV panels...... for this grid: even distribution of PV panels, aggregation of panels at the beginning of each feeder, and aggregation of panels at the end of each feeder. Load modeling is done using Velander formula. Since PV generation is highest in the summer due to irradiation, a summer day was chosen to determine maximum......; maximum voltage deviation of customers, cables current limits, and transformer nominal value. Voltage deviation of different buses was investigated for different penetration levels. The proposed model was simulated on a Danish distribution grid. Three different PV location scenarios were investigated...

Guideline level-3 PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofsen, P.M.; Van der Steen, J.

1993-09-01

For several applications of radioactive materials calculations must be executed to determine the radiation risk for the population. A guideline for the risk calculation method of two main sources: nuclear power plants, and other intended and unintended activities with radioactive materials, is given. The standards, recommendations and regulations in this report concern mainly the analysis of the radiological (external) consequences of nuclear power plant accidents, classified as level-3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Analysis). Level-3 PSA falls within the scales 5-7 of the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES). The standards, etc., focus on the risks for groups of people and the so-called maximum individual risk. In chapter two the standards and regulations are formulated for each part of level-3 PSA: the source term spectrum, atmospheric distribution and deposition, exposure to radiation doses and calculation of radiation doses, dose-response relationships, measures to reduce the effect of radiation doses, design basis accidents, and finally uncertainty analysis. In chapter four, modelled descriptions are given of the standards and regulations, which could or should be used in a calculation program in case of level-3 PSA. In chapter three the practical execution of a probabilistic consequences analysis, the collection of input data and the presentation of the results are dealt with. 2 figs., 14 tabs., 64 refs

Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholls, Robert J.

2017-04-01

Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

The persistence of risk levels of general equity funds in an emerging market economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rousseau Lötter

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The persistence of risk levels of local General Equity unit trusts is evaluated. Variations in absolute and market-adjusted returns are measured to determine whether investors can use historical risk as a proxy for future risk levels. The General Equity funds are fairly homogenous, and different funds should exhibit stable risk levels if the fund managers’ investment mandates and investment styles remain stable over time. The results indicate a degree of absolute and market-adjusted risk stability over time. The market-adjusted risk and return relationship remained stable through the 2008 global crises, indicating that, on average, the fund managers maintained their benchmark-related risk exposures. Both the absolute and market-adjusted results indicate no statistically significant relationship between risk and return for the 2000 to 2012 period.

The persistence of risk levels of general equity funds in an emerging market economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rousseau Lötter

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The persistence of risk levels of local General Equity unit trusts is evaluated. Variations in absolute and market-adjusted returns are measured to determine whether investors can use historical risk as a proxy for future risk levels. The General Equity funds are fairly homogenous, and different funds should exhibit stable risk levels if the fund managers’ investment mandates and investment styles remain stable over time. The results indicate a degree of absolute and market-adjusted risk stability over time. The market-adjusted risk and return relationship remained stable through the 2008 global crises, indicating that, on average, the fund managers maintained their benchmark-related risk exposures. Both the absolute and market-adjusted results indicate no statistically significant relationship between risk and return for the 2000 to 2012 period.

Probabilistic maximum-value wind prediction for offshore environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Staid, Andrea; Pinson, Pierre; Guikema, Seth D.

2015-01-01

statistical models to predict the full distribution of the maximum-value wind speeds in a 3 h interval. We take a detailed look at the performance of linear models, generalized additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines models using meteorological covariates such as gust speed, wind speed......, convective available potential energy, Charnock, mean sea-level pressure and temperature, as given by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts forecasts. The models are trained to predict the mean value of maximum wind speed, and the residuals from training the models are used to develop...... the full probabilistic distribution of maximum wind speed. Knowledge of the maximum wind speed for an offshore location within a given period can inform decision-making regarding turbine operations, planned maintenance operations and power grid scheduling in order to improve safety and reliability...

DEPENDENCE OF COUNTRY RISK COMPARED TO THE FOREIGN DEBT LEVEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelica BĂCESCU-CĂRBUNARU

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The article presents some of the fundamental aspects of country risk’dependence compared to foreign debt level. Starting from external debt burden we analyze the usage of foreign loans, foreign debt bearing capacity as well as the availability of data regarding the external debt. Country risk represents the exposure to losses which may occur in a business with a foreign partner, caused by specific events that are, at least partially, controlled by the partner country’ government. Macroeconomic analysis of economic and financial component of country risk involves how this risk is influenced by government policy, by the economic role of government, bypricing strategies, investment priorities, financial structures, macroeconomic policy, by the ability to obtain foreign funds, the level of external debt as well as the liquidity and cash flows in that country.

The consequences of a reduction in the administratively applied maximum annual dose equivalent level for an individual in a group of occupationally exposed workers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, N.T.

1980-02-01

An analysis is described for predicting the consequences of a reduction in the administratively applied maximum dose equivalent level to individuals in a group of workers occupationally exposed to ionising radiations, for the situation in which no changes are made to the working environment. This limitation of the maximum individual dose equivalent is accommodated by allowing the number of individuals in the working group to increase. The derivation of the analysis is given, together with worked examples, which highlight the important assumptions that have been made and the conclusions that can be drawn. The results are obtained in the form of the capacity of the particular working environment to accommodate the limitation of the maximum individual dose equivalent, the increase in the number of workers required to carry out the productive work and any consequent increase in the occupational collective dose equivalent. (author)

Biases in Farm-Level Yield Risk Analysis due to Data Aggregation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Finger, R.

2012-01-01

We investigate biases in farm-level yield risk analysis caused by data aggregation from the farm-level to regional and national levels using the example of Swiss wheat and barley yields. The estimated yield variability decreases significantly with increasing level of aggregation, with crop yield

Incorporating stand level risk management options into forest decision support systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyle Eyvindson

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: To examine methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty to stand level forest decisions. Area of study: A case study examines a small forest holding from Jönköping, Sweden. Material and methods: We incorporate empirically estimated uncertainty into the simulation through a Monte Carlo approach when simulating the forest stands for the next 100 years. For the iterations of the Monte Carlo approach, errors were incorporated into the input data which was simulated according to the Heureka decision support system. Both the Value at Risk and the Conditional Value at Risk of the net present value are evaluated for each simulated stand. Main results: Visual representation of the errors can be used to highlight which decision would be most beneficial dependent on the decision maker’s opinion of the forest inventory results. At a stand level, risk preferences can be rather easily incorporated into the current forest decision support software. Research highlights: Forest management operates under uncertainty and risk. Methods are available to describe this risk in an understandable fashion for the decision maker.

Maximum Urine Flow Rate of Less than 15ml/Sec Increasing Risk of Urine Retention and Prostate Surgery among Patients with Alpha-1 Blockers: A 10-Year Follow Up Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsin-Ho Liu

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the subsequent risk of acute urine retention and prostate surgery in patients receiving alpha-1 blockers treatment and having a maximum urinary flow rate of less than 15ml/sec.We identified patients who were diagnosed with benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH and had a maximum uroflow rate of less than 15ml/sec between 1 January, 2002 to 31 December, 2011 from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database into study group (n = 303. The control cohort included four BPH/LUTS patients without 5ARI used for each study group, randomly selected from the same dataset (n = 1,212. Each patient was monitored to identify those who subsequently developed prostate surgery and acute urine retention.Prostate surgery and acute urine retention are detected in 5.9% of control group and 8.3% of study group during 10-year follow up. Compared with the control group, there was increase in the risk of prostate surgery and acute urine retention in the study group (HR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.16 to 2.91 after adjusting for age, comorbidities, geographic region and socioeconomic status.Maximum urine flow rate of less than 15ml/sec is a risk factor of urinary retention and subsequent prostate surgery in BPH patients receiving alpha-1 blocker therapy. This result can provide a reference for clinicians.

Approximate maximum parsimony and ancestral maximum likelihood.

Science.gov (United States)

Alon, Noga; Chor, Benny; Pardi, Fabio; Rapoport, Anat

2010-01-01

We explore the maximum parsimony (MP) and ancestral maximum likelihood (AML) criteria in phylogenetic tree reconstruction. Both problems are NP-hard, so we seek approximate solutions. We formulate the two problems as Steiner tree problems under appropriate distances. The gist of our approach is the succinct characterization of Steiner trees for a small number of leaves for the two distances. This enables the use of known Steiner tree approximation algorithms. The approach leads to a 16/9 approximation ratio for AML and asymptotically to a 1.55 approximation ratio for MP.

Doses of low level ionizing radiation; a misunderstood risk, however unavoidable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicolli, D.

1988-01-01

The treatment given by international organizations and associations to the problems of radiation exposures, and the recommendations and norms for calculating risks of low level radiation are analysed. It is shown that there are not zero risks for nuclear energy, and emphasis is given to the risks of natural radiation from environment. (M.C.K.) [pt

Screening-level risk assessment for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) trimer detected in soil and groundwater.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirman, C R; Gargas, M L; Collins, J J; Rowlands, J C

2012-01-01

A screening-level risk assessment was conducted for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer detected at the Reich Farm Superfund site in Toms River, NJ. Consistent with a screening-level approach, on-site and off-site exposure scenarios were evaluated using assumptions that are expected to overestimate actual exposures and hazards at the site. Environmental sampling data collected for soil and groundwater were used to estimate exposure point concentrations. Several exposure scenarios were evaluated to assess potential on-site and off-site exposures, using parameter values for exposures to soil (oral, inhalation of particulates, and dermal contact) and groundwater (oral, dermal contact) to reflect central tendency exposure (CTE) and reasonable maximum exposure (RME) conditions. Three reference dose (RfD) values were derived for SAN Trimer for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, based upon its effects on the liver in exposed rats. Benchmark (BMD) methods were used to assess the relationship between exposure and response, and to characterize appropriate points of departure (POD) for each RfD. An uncertainty factor of 300 was applied to each POD to yield RfD values of 0.1, 0.04, and 0.03 mg/kg-d for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, respectively. Because a chronic cancer bioassay for SAN Trimer in rats (NTP 2011a) does not provide evidence of carcinogenicity, a cancer risk assessment is not appropriate for this chemical. Potential health hazards to human health were assessed using a hazard index (HI) approach, which considers the ratio of exposure dose (i.e., average daily dose, mg/kg-d) to toxicity dose (RfD, mg/kg-d) for each scenario. All CTE and RME HI values are well below 1 (where the average daily dose is equivalent to the RfD), indicating that there is no concern for potential noncancer effects in exposed populations even under the conservative assumptions of this screening-level assessment.

Screening-Level Risk Assessment for Styrene-Acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer Detected in Soil and Groundwater

Science.gov (United States)

Kirman, C. R.; Gargas, M. L.; Collins, J. J.; Rowlands, J. C.

2012-01-01

A screening-level risk assessment was conducted for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer detected at the Reich Farm Superfund site in Toms River, NJ. Consistent with a screening-level approach, on-site and off-site exposure scenarios were evaluated using assumptions that are expected to overestimate actual exposures and hazards at the site. Environmental sampling data collected for soil and groundwater were used to estimate exposure point concentrations. Several exposure scenarios were evaluated to assess potential on-site and off-site exposures, using parameter values for exposures to soil (oral, inhalation of particulates, and dermal contact) and groundwater (oral, dermal contact) to reflect central tendency exposure (CTE) and reasonable maximum exposure (RME) conditions. Three reference dose (RfD) values were derived for SAN Trimer for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, based upon its effects on the liver in exposed rats. Benchmark (BMD) methods were used to assess the relationship between exposure and response, and to characterize appropriate points of departure (POD) for each RfD. An uncertainty factor of 300 was applied to each POD to yield RfD values of 0.1, 0.04, and 0.03 mg/kg-d for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, respectively. Because a chronic cancer bioassay for SAN Trimer in rats (NTP 2011a) does not provide evidence of carcinogenicity, a cancer risk assessment is not appropriate for this chemical. Potential health hazards to human health were assessed using a hazard index (HI) approach, which considers the ratio of exposure dose (i.e., average daily dose, mg/kg-d) to toxicity dose (RfD, mg/kg-d) for each scenario. All CTE and RME HI values are well below 1 (where the average daily dose is equivalent to the RfD), indicating that there is no concern for potential noncancer effects in exposed populations even under the conservative assumptions of this screening-level assessment. PMID:23030654

40 CFR Table 2 to Subpart Ggggg of... - Control Levels as Required by § 63.7895(a) for Tanks Managing Remediation Material With a Maximum...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 13 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Control Levels as Required by § 63.7895(a) for Tanks Managing Remediation Material With a Maximum HAP Vapor Pressure Less Than 76.6 kPa 2..., Subpt. GGGGG, Table 2 Table 2 to Subpart GGGGG of Part 63—Control Levels as Required by § 63.7895(a) for...

Analysis of risk indicators and issues associated with applications of screening model for hazardous and radioactive waste sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buck, J.W.; Strenge, D.L.; Droppo, J.G. Jr.

1990-12-01

Risk indicators, such as population risk, maximum individual risk, time of arrival of contamination, and maximum water concentrations, were analyzed to determine their effect on results from a screening model for hazardous and radioactive waste sites. The analysis of risk indicators is based on calculations resulting from exposure to air and waterborne contamination predicted with Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) model. The different risk indicators were analyzed, based on constituent type and transport and exposure pathways. Three of the specific comparisons that were made are (1) population-based versus maximum individual-based risk indicators, (2) time of arrival of contamination, and (3) comparison of different threshold assumptions for noncarcinogenic impacts. Comparison of indicators for population- and maximum individual-based human health risk suggests that these two parameters are highly correlated, but for a given problem, one may be more important than the other. The results indicate that the arrival distribution for different levels of contamination reaching a receptor can also be helpful in decisions regarding the use of resources for remediating short- and long-term environmental problems. The addition of information from a linear model for noncarcinogenic impacts allows interpretation of results below the reference dose (RfD) levels that might help in decisions for certain applications. The analysis of risk indicators suggests that important information may be lost by the use of a single indicator to represent public health risk and that multiple indicators should be considered. 15 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

Analysis of Maximum Reasonably Foreseeable Accidents for the Yucca Mountain Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ross, S.B.; Best, R.E.; Maheras, S.J.; McSweeney, T.I.

2001-01-01

Accidents could occur during the transportation of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. This paper describes the risks and consequences to the public from accidents that are highly unlikely but that could have severe consequences. The impact of these accidents would include those to a collective population and to hypothetical maximally exposed individuals (MEIs). This document discusses accidents with conditions that have a chance of occurring more often than 1 in 10 million times in a year, called ''maximum reasonably foreseeable accidents''. Accidents and conditions less likely than this are not considered to be reasonably foreseeable

Managing Risk Areas in Software Development Offshoring: A CMMI Level 5 Case

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Persson, John Stouby; Schlichter, Bjarne Rerup

2015-01-01

Software companies are increasingly offshoring development to countries with high expertise at lower cost. Offshoring involves particular risk areas that if ignored increase the likelihood of failure. However, the offshoring client’s maturity level may influence the management of these risk areas....... Against this backdrop, we present an interpretive case study of how managers perceive and mitigate the risk areas in software development offshoring with a mature CMMI level 5 (Capability Maturity Model, Integrated) software company as the client. We find that managers perceive and mitigate most...

Circulating soluble Fas levels and risk of ovarian cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akhmedkhanov, Arslan; Lenner, Per; Muti, Paola; Rinaldi, Sabina; Kaaks, Rudolf; Berrino, Franco; Hallmans, Göran; Toniolo, Paolo; Lundin, Eva; Guller, Seth; Lukanova, Annekatrin; Micheli, Andrea; Ma, Yuehong; Afanasyeva, Yelena; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Krogh, Vittorio

2003-01-01

Dysregulation of apoptosis, specifically overexpression of soluble Fas (sFas), has been proposed to play a role in the development of ovarian cancer. The main objective of the present study was to evaluate serum sFas as a potential biomarker of ovarian cancer risk. The association between serum sFas levels and the risk of ovarian cancer was examined in a case-control study nested within three prospective cohorts in New York (USA), Umeå (Sweden), and Milan (Italy). Case subjects were 138 women with primary invasive epithelial ovarian cancer diagnosed between 2 months and 13.2 years after the initial blood donation. Control subjects were 263 women who were free of cancer, and matched the case on cohort, menopausal status, age, and enrollment date. Serum sFas levels were determined using a quantitative sandwich enzyme immunoassay. Serum sFas levels were similar in women subsequently diagnosed with ovarian cancer (median, 6.5 ng/mL; range, 4.4 – 10.2) and in controls (median, 6.8 ng/mL; range, 4.5 – 10.1). Statistically significant trends of increasing serum sFas with age were observed among cases (r = 0.39, p < 0.0001) and controls (r = 0.42, p < 0.0001). Compared to women in the lowest third, women in the highest third of serum sFas were not at increased risk of ovarian cancer after adjustment for potential confounders (odd ratio (OR), 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.42 – 1.82). The results suggest that serum sFas may not be a suitable marker for identification of women at increased risk of ovarian cancer

Household-level disparities in cancer risks from vehicular air pollution in Miami

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, Timothy W; Grineski, Sara E; Chakraborty, Jayajit

2015-01-01

Environmental justice (EJ) research has relied on ecological analyses of socio-demographic data from areal units to determine if particular populations are disproportionately burdened by toxic risks. This article advances quantitative EJ research by (a) examining whether statistical associations found for geographic units translate to relationships at the household level; (b) testing alternative explanations for distributional injustices never before investigated; and (c) applying a novel statistical technique appropriate for geographically-clustered data. Our study makes these advances by using generalized estimating equations to examine distributive environmental inequities in the Miami (Florida) metropolitan area, based on primary household-level survey data and census block-level cancer risk estimates of hazardous air pollutant (HAP) exposure from on-road mobile emission sources. In addition to modeling determinants of on-road HAP cancer risk among all survey participants, two subgroup models are estimated to examine whether determinants of risk differ based on disadvantaged minority (Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black) versus non-Hispanic white racial/ethnic status. Results reveal multiple determinants of risk exposure disparities. In the model including all survey participants, renter-occupancy, Hispanic and non-Hispanic black race/ethnicity, the desire to live close to work/urban services or public transportation, and higher risk perception are associated with greater on-road HAP cancer risk; the desire to live in an amenity-rich environment is associated with less risk. Divergent subgroup model results shed light on the previously unexamined role of racial/ethnic status in shaping determinants of risk exposures. While lower socioeconomic status and higher risk perception predict significantly greater on-road HAP cancer risk among disadvantaged minorities, the desire to live near work/urban services or public transport predict significantly greater risk among

Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-01

authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ Agencies. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR...COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2-20 contingent probabilities given their dependence on non-probabilistic emissions futures, have extended the ranges of...flood risk provides confidence in the associated projection as a true minimum value for risk management purposes. The contemporary rate observed by

Quantifying risks experienced by populations exposed to low levels of environmental contaminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.

1985-05-01

The objective was to provide a direct assessment of risks associated with exposures at the actual levels of interest. There are several epidemiological studies of populations that have received occupational exposure to radiation including workers at the Hanford nuclear facility. This population was used as a typical example to illustrate methods of analyzing such data. The Hanford data appear to demonstrate directly that risk estimates obtained by linear extrapolation from data on populations exposed at high levels are unlikely to underestimate risks by a factor greater than three. 15 refs

Quantitative influence of risk factors on blood glucose level.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Songjing; Luo, Senlin; Pan, Limin; Zhang, Tiemei; Han, Longfei; Zhao, Haixiu

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to quantitatively analyze the influence of risk factors on the blood glucose level, and to provide theory basis for understanding the characteristics of blood glucose change and confirming the intervention index for type 2 diabetes. The quantitative method is proposed to analyze the influence of risk factors on blood glucose using back propagation (BP) neural network. Ten risk factors are screened first. Then the cohort is divided into nine groups by gender and age. According to the minimum error principle, nine BP models are trained respectively. The quantitative values of the influence of different risk factors on the blood glucose change can be obtained by sensitivity calculation. The experiment results indicate that weight is the leading cause of blood glucose change (0.2449). The second factors are cholesterol, age and triglyceride. The total ratio of these four factors reaches to 77% of the nine screened risk factors. And the sensitivity sequences can provide judgment method for individual intervention. This method can be applied to risk factors quantitative analysis of other diseases and potentially used for clinical practitioners to identify high risk populations for type 2 diabetes as well as other disease.

Commercial low-level radioactive waste transportation liability and radiological risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quinn, G.J.; Brown, O.F. II; Garcia, R.S.

1992-08-01

This report was prepared for States, compact regions, and other interested parties to address two subjects related to transporting low-level radioactive waste to disposal facilities. One is the potential liabilities associated with low-level radioactive waste transportation from the perspective of States as hosts to low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. The other is the radiological risks of low-level radioactive waste transportation for drivers, the public, and disposal facility workers.

Commercial low-level radioactive waste transportation liability and radiological risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quinn, G.J.; Brown, O.F. II; Garcia, R.S.

1992-08-01

This report was prepared for States, compact regions, and other interested parties to address two subjects related to transporting low-level radioactive waste to disposal facilities. One is the potential liabilities associated with low-level radioactive waste transportation from the perspective of States as hosts to low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. The other is the radiological risks of low-level radioactive waste transportation for drivers, the public, and disposal facility workers

Prediagnostic plasma antibody levels to periodontopathic bacteria and risk of coronary heart disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Ueno, Masayuki; Izumi, Yuichi; Kawaguchi, Yoko; Ikeda, Ai; Iso, Hiroyasu; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2012-01-01

Many epidemiological studies have indicated that periodontitis is an important risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether plasma antibody levels to 3 major periodontal pathogens, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, and Prevotella intermedia predicted the risk of CHD events. A nested case-control research design (case: n = 191, control: n = 382), by matching gender, age, study area, date of blood collection, and time since last meal at blood collection, was employed in a large cohort of Japanese community residents.Antibody levels of periodontopathic bacteria were associated with risk of CHD after adjusting for BMI, smoking status, alcohol intake, history of hypertension, history of diabetes mellitus, exercise during leisure time, and perceived mental stress. The association was different by age subgroup. For subjects aged 40-55 years, the medium (31.7-184.9 U/mL) or high tertile plasma antibody level (> 184.9 U/mL) of A. actinomycetemcomitans showed higher risk of CHD (medium: OR = 3.72; 95% CI = 1.20-11.56, high: OR = 4.64; 95% CI = 1.52-14.18) than the low tertile level ( 414.1 U/mL) of P. intermedia was associated with higher risk of CHD (OR = 2.65; 95% CI = 1.18-5.94) in a dose-response fashion (P for trend = 0.007). The possible role of periodontopathic bacteria as a risk factor for CHD incidence was suggested by the results of this study by the elevated antibody level to these bacteria with the increased risk of CHD.

Level of anxiety in parents of high-risk premature twins.

Science.gov (United States)

Zanardo, V; Freato, F; Cereda, C

1998-01-01

We attempted to define parental anxiety in a population of parents of high-risk premature twins (mean birth weight 1,493 +/- 227 kg; mean gestational age 33 +/- 3.5 weeks), admitted to III level NICU. We specifically examined the following factors; gestational age of the twins, whether or not the twins had ventilatory support, pulmonary sequelae, major malformations or intra-ventricular hemorrhage, parental gender and highest level of education obtained by the parent. In the immediate pre-discharge period and a month later, a questionnaire (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory) was given to all parents of premature twins presenting for the discharge. The parents of 30 twins entered the study twice, at the discharge of their first twin (mean postnatal age 40 +/- 32 days), and one month later. They included 15 mothers and 11 fathers, aged 33 +/- 5.5 and 33 +/- 4.2 years, and at the second evaluation 11 mothers and 10 fathers, respectively. As case-controls we examined parental anxiety of fifteen consecutive singleton high-risk prematures, with equal gestational age, discharged immediately after. Our results indicate that the parents of high-risk twin and singleton prematures present an elevated, lasting state-trait anxiety level. Pre- and post-discharge parental anxiety is more elevated (not significant) in twinning with respect to the prematurity alone. When assessed separately by parental gender, in both these groups an increased (not significant) anxiety was persistently found in the mothers. We recommend that, although neonatologists generally define the discharge of the high-risk premature based upon the acquired stabilization of vital parameters, they pay special attention to the twin group we have identified which is at increased risk for predischarge parental anxiety.

Inhalation exposure and health risk levels to BTEX and carbonyl compounds of traffic policeman working in the inner city of Bangkok, Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Kanjanasiranont, Navaporn; Prueksasit, Tassanee; Morknoy, Daisy

2017-03-01

Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) and carbonyl compounds (CCs) are recognized traffic-related air pollutants in urban environments and are the focus of this study. In Bangkok, the BTEX and CC concentrations in both ambient air and personal exposure samples were studied during two periods (April-May and August-September 2014) at four different sampling sites around the Pathumwan District (three intersections and one T-junction). Traffic policemen, representing the high-exposure group for these toxic air pollutants, were observed, and the health risk to these workers was evaluated. Toluene was the predominant aromatic compound in the ambient and personal exposure samples. The maximum average ambient concentration of BTEX was 2968.96 μg/m3. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde were the most abundant CCs at all of the sampling sites, with the greatest mean concentrations of these substances being 21.50 μg/m3 and 64.82 μg/m3, respectively. In the personal exposure samples, the highest levels of BTEX, formaldehyde and acetaldehyde concentrations were 2231.85 μg/m3, 10.61 μg/m3, and 16.03 μg/m3, respectively. In terms of risk assessment, benzene posed the greatest cancer risk (at the 95% CI), followed by toluene, acetaldehyde and formaldehyde (1.15E-02, 5.14E-03, 2.84E-04, and 2.52E-04, respectively). Three risk factors were investigated to reduce the total cancer risk levels: reducing the chemical concentration, exposure time and exposure duration. The use of a mask (chemical concentration) was the best way to reduce the risk to traffic police. However, the risk value of benzene (average 1.57E-05) was still higher than an acceptable value when using a mask.

Low risk of concussions in top-level karate competition.

Science.gov (United States)

Arriaza, Rafael; Cierna, Dusana; Regueiro, Patricia; Inman, David; Roman, Franco; Abarca, Benjamin; Barrientos, Mercé; Saavedra, Miguel A

2017-02-01

Although it is well known that injuries occur in combat sports, the true incidence of concussions is not clearly defined in the literature for karate competition. To determine the incidence of concussions in top-level (World Karate Federation World Championships) karate competition. Injuries that took place in 4 consecutive World Karate Championships (from 2008 to 2014) were prospectively registered. A total of 4625 fights (2916 in the male category and 1709 in the female category) were scrutinised, and concussions were identified and analysed separately for frequency (rate per fight) and injury risk. A total of 4 concussions were diagnosed by the attending physicians after carrying out athlete examinations. Globally, there was 1 concussion in every 1156 fights, or 0.43/1000 athlete-exposures (AE). In male athletes, the rate of concussion was 1/5832 min of fighting, and in female athletes, it was 1/6836 min. OR for concussion in women is 0.57 (95% CI 0.06 to 5.47; z=0.489; p=0.6249) and risk ratio for concussions in men is RR 1.478 (95% CI 0.271 to 8.072), p=0.528, representing a higher risk of definite concussions in men than in women, but not statistically significant. There is not a significantly higher risk of concussions in team competition (no weight limit) when compared with individual competition (held with strict weight limits for each category). The risk of concussions in top-level karate competition is low, with a tendency for an increased risk for men and for competition without weight limits, but not statistically significant with respect to women or individual competition. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Septiani

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

Changes in triglyceride levels and risk for coronary heart disease in young men.

Science.gov (United States)

Tirosh, Amir; Rudich, Assaf; Shochat, Tzippora; Tekes-Manova, Dorit; Israeli, Eran; Henkin, Yaakov; Kochba, Ilan; Shai, Iris

2007-09-18

Current triglyceride levels might be only a weak predictor of risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). To assess the association between changes over time in fasting triglyceride levels and CHD risk in young adults. Follow-up study over 5.5 years after 2 measurements of fasting triglycerides 5 years apart. The Staff Periodic Examination Center of the Israel Defense Forces, Zrifin, Israel. 13,953 apparently healthy, untreated, young men (age 26 to 45 years) with triglyceride levels less than 3.39 mmol/L (<300 mg/dL). Two triglyceride measurements (at enrollment [time 1] and 5 years later [time 2]), lifestyle variables, and incident cases of angiography-proven CHD. Within 5.5 years, 158 new cases of CHD were identified. The multivariate model was adjusted for age; family history; fasting glucose; high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; blood pressure; body mass index; and changes between time 1 and time 2 in body mass index, physical activity, smoking status, and habit of eating breakfast. Investigators categorized triglyceride levels according to low, intermediate, and high tertiles (as measured at time 1 and time 2 [expressed as tertile at time 1/tertile at time 2]). The risk for CHD in men with high-tertile triglyceride levels at time 1 changed depending on the tertile at time 2 (hazard ratios, 8.23 [95% CI, 2.50 to 27.13] for high/high, 6.84 [CI, 1.95 to 23.98] for high/intermediate, and 4.90 [CI, 1.01 to 24.55] for high/low, compared with the stable low/low group). The risk for CHD in men with low-tertile levels at time 1 also changed depending on the tertile at time 2 (hazard ratios, 3.81 [CI, 0.96 to 15.31] for low/intermediate and 6.76 [CI, 1.34 to 33.92] for low/high, compared with the stable low/low group). Participants were healthy and had a low incidence rate of CHD. The study was observational. Two triglyceride measurements obtained 5 years apart may assist in assessing CHD risk in young men. A decrease in initially elevated triglyceride levels is associated

Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

2015-01-01

This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

Comparative estimates of risks arising from storage of intermediate level radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, D.

1986-04-01

Estimates are presented of risks arising from accidents occuring during storage of nine types of conditioned intermediate level waste. Additional data are introduced relating to the risks from accidents affecting raw waste, and to risks associated with the occupational doses received during normal operation of a waste store. Risks in all three categories are shown to be extremely small. (author)

Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

1993-01-01

OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

The effect of decentralized behavioral decision making on system-level risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaivanto, Kim

2014-12-01

Certain classes of system-level risk depend partly on decentralized lay decision making. For instance, an organization's network security risk depends partly on its employees' responses to phishing attacks. On a larger scale, the risk within a financial system depends partly on households' responses to mortgage sales pitches. Behavioral economics shows that lay decisionmakers typically depart in systematic ways from the normative rationality of expected utility (EU), and instead display heuristics and biases as captured in the more descriptively accurate prospect theory (PT). In turn, psychological studies show that successful deception ploys eschew direct logical argumentation and instead employ peripheral-route persuasion, manipulation of visceral emotions, urgency, and familiar contextual cues. The detection of phishing emails and inappropriate mortgage contracts may be framed as a binary classification task. Signal detection theory (SDT) offers the standard normative solution, formulated as an optimal cutoff threshold, for distinguishing between good/bad emails or mortgages. In this article, we extend SDT behaviorally by rederiving the optimal cutoff threshold under PT. Furthermore, we incorporate the psychology of deception into determination of SDT's discriminability parameter. With the neo-additive probability weighting function, the optimal cutoff threshold under PT is rendered unique under well-behaved sampling distributions, tractable in computation, and transparent in interpretation. The PT-based cutoff threshold is (i) independent of loss aversion and (ii) more conservative than the classical SDT cutoff threshold. Independently of any possible misalignment between individual-level and system-level misclassification costs, decentralized behavioral decisionmakers are biased toward underdetection, and system-level risk is consequently greater than in analyses predicated upon normative rationality. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Self-reported sleep disturbances due to railway noise: exposure-response relationships for nighttime equivalent and maximum noise levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Moum, Torbjorn; Engdahl, Bo

2008-07-01

The objective of the present survey was to study self-reported sleep disturbances due to railway noise with respect to nighttime equivalent noise level (L(p,A,eq,night)) and maximum noise level (L(p,A,max)). A sample of 1349 people in and around Oslo in Norway exposed to railway noise was studied in a cross-sectional survey to obtain data on sleep disturbances, sleep problems due to noise, and personal characteristics including noise sensitivity. Individual noise exposure levels were determined outside of the bedroom facade, the most-exposed facade, and inside the respondents' bedrooms. The exposure-response relationships were analyzed by using logistic regression models, controlling for possible modifying factors including the number of noise events (train pass-by frequency). L(p,A,eq,night) and L(p,A,max) were significantly correlated, and the proportion of reported noise-induced sleep problems increased as both L(p,A,eq,night) and L(p,A,max) increased. Noise sensitivity, type of bedroom window, and pass-by frequency were significant factors affecting noise-induced sleep disturbances, in addition to the noise exposure level. Because about half of the study population did not use a bedroom at the most-exposed side of the house, the exposure-response curve obtained by using noise levels for the most-exposed facade underestimated noise-induced sleep disturbance for those who actually have their bedroom at the most-exposed facade.

The assessment of risks from exposure to low-levels of ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.

1992-06-01

This report is concerned with risk assessments for human populations receiving low level radiation doses; workers routinely exposed to radiation, Japanese victims of nuclear bombs, and the general public are all considered. Topics covered include risk estimates for cancer, mortality rates, risk estimates for nuclear site workers, and dosimetry

Heavy metals pollution levels and children health risk assessment of Yerevan kindergartens soils.

Science.gov (United States)

Tepanosyan, Gevorg; Maghakyan, Nairuhi; Sahakyan, Lilit; Saghatelyan, Armen

2017-08-01

Children, the most vulnerable urban population group, are exceptionally sensitive to polluted environments, particularly urban soils, which can lead to adverse health effects upon exposure. In this study, the total concentrations of Ag, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Ti, V, and Zn were determined in 111 topsoil samples collected from kindergartens in Yerevan. The objectives of this study were to evaluate heavy metal pollution levels of kindergarten's soils in Yerevan, compare with national legal and international requirements on heavy metal contents in kindergarten soil, and assess related child health risk. Multivariate geostatistical analyses suggested that the concentrations of Ag, As, Ba, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mo, Pb, and Zn observed in the kindergarten's topsoil may have originated from anthropogenic sources, while Co, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Ti, and V mostly come from natural sources. According to the Summary pollution index (Zc), 102 kindergartens belong to the low pollution level, 7 to the moderate and only 2 to the high level of pollution. Summary concentration index (SCI) showed that 109 kindergartens were in the allowable level, while 2 featured in the low level of pollution. The health risk assessment showed that in all kindergartens except for seven, non-carcinogenic risk for children was detected (HI>1), while carcinogenic risk from arsenic belongs to the very low (allowable) level. Cr and multi-element carcinogenic risk (RI) exceeded the safety level (1.0E- 06) in all kindergartens and showed that the potential of developing cancer, albeit small, does exist. Therefore, city's kindergartens require necessary remedial actions to eliminate or reduce soil pollution and heavy metal-induced health risks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

2017-12-01

National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The

Height, Weight, and Aerobic Fitness Level in Relation to the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Crump, Casey; Sundquist, Jan; Winkleby, Marilyn A; Sundquist, Kristina

2018-03-01

Tall stature and obesity have been associated with a higher risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), but there have been conflicting reports of the effects of aerobic fitness. We conducted a national cohort study to examine interactions between height or weight and level of aerobic fitness among 1,547,478 Swedish military conscripts during 1969-1997 (97%-98% of all 18-year-old men) in relation to AF identified from nationwide inpatient and outpatient diagnoses through 2012 (maximal age, 62 years). Increased height, weight, and aerobic fitness level (but not muscular strength) at age 18 years were all associated with a higher AF risk in adulthood. Positive additive and multiplicative interactions were found between height or weight and aerobic fitness level (for the highest tertiles of height and aerobic fitness level vs. the lowest, relative excess risk = 0.51, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40, 0.62; ratio of hazard ratios = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.34, 1.65). High aerobic fitness levels were associated with higher risk among men who were at least 186 cm (6 feet, 1 inch) tall but were protective among shorter men. Men with the combination of tall stature and high aerobic fitness level had the highest risk (for the highest tertiles vs. the lowest, adjusted hazard ratio = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.61, 1.80). These findings suggest important interactions between body size and aerobic fitness level in relation to AF and may help identify high-risk subgroups.

Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

2014-01-01

an optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gain in health risk-benefit assessment of dietary exposure as expressed by serum vitamin D level. With regard to the vitamin D assessment, a considerable health gain is observed due to the reduction of risk of other cause mortality, fall and hip fractures......Background: In risk-benefit assessment of food and nutrients, several studies so far have focused on comparison of two scenarios to weigh the health effect against each other. One obvious next step is finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Aim: This paper aims to show...... that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

A qualitative study on acceptable levels of risk for pregnant women in clinical research.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Zande, Indira S E; van der Graaf, Rieke; Oudijk, Martijn A; van Delden, Johannes J M

2017-05-15

There is ambiguity with regard to what counts as an acceptable level of risk in clinical research in pregnant women and there is no input from stakeholders relative to such research risks. The aim of our paper was to explore what stakeholders who are actively involved in the conduct of clinical research in pregnant women deem an acceptable level of risk for pregnant women in clinical research. Accordingly, we used the APOSTEL VI study, a low-risk obstetrical randomised controlled trial, as a case-study. We conducted a prospective qualitative study using 35 in-depth semi-structured interviews and one focus group. We interviewed healthcare professionals, Research Ethics Committee members (RECs) and regulators who are actively involved in the conduct of clinical research in pregnant women, in addition to pregnant women recruited for the APOSTEL VI case-study in the Netherlands. Three themes characterise the way stakeholders view risks in clinical research in pregnant women in general. Additionally, one theme characterises the way healthcare professionals and pregnant women view risks with respect to the case-study specifically. First, ideas on what constitutes an acceptable level of risk in general ranged from a preference for zero risk for the foetus up to minimal risk. Second, the desirability of clinical research in pregnant women in general was questioned altogether. Third, stakeholders proposed to establish an upper limit of risk in potentially beneficial clinical research in pregnant women in order to protect the foetus and the pregnant woman from harm. Fourth and finally, the case-study illustrates that healthcare professionals' individual perception of risk may influence recruitment. Healthcare professionals, RECs, regulators and pregnant women are all risk adverse in practice, possibly explaining the continuing underrepresentation of pregnant women in clinical research. Determining the acceptable levels of risk on a universal level alone is insufficient

Microprocessor-controlled step-down maximum-power-point tracker for photovoltaic systems

Science.gov (United States)

Mazmuder, R. K.; Haidar, S.

1992-12-01

An efficient maximum power point tracker (MPPT) has been developed and can be used with a photovoltaic (PV) array and a load which requires lower voltage than the PV array voltage to be operated. The MPPT makes the PV array to operate at maximum power point (MPP) under all insolation and temperature, which ensures the maximum amount of available PV power to be delivered to the load. The performance of the MPPT has been studied under different insolation levels.

Elevated serum pesticide levels and risk for Alzheimer disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Jason R; Roy, Ananya; Shalat, Stuart L; von Stein, Richard T; Hossain, Muhammad M; Buckley, Brian; Gearing, Marla; Levey, Allan I; German, Dwight C

2014-03-01

The causes of late-onset Alzheimer disease (AD) are not yet understood but likely include a combination of genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors. Limited epidemiological studies suggest that occupational pesticide exposures are associated with AD. Previously, we reported that serum levels of dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), the metabolite of the pesticide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), were elevated in a small number of patients with AD (n=20). To evaluate the association between serum levels of DDE and AD and whether the apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype modifies the association. A case-control study consisting of existing samples from patients with AD and control participants from the Emory University Alzheimer's Disease Research Center and the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School's Alzheimer's Disease Center. Serum levels of DDE were measured in 79 control and 86 AD cases. Serum DDE levels, AD diagnosis, severity of AD measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination score, and interaction with APOE4 status. Levels of DDE were 3.8-fold higher in the serum of those with AD (mean [SEM], 2.64 [0.35] ng/mg cholesterol) when compared with control participants (mean [SEM], 0.69 [0.1] ng/mg cholesterol; P risk for AD (95% CI, 2.54-5.82; P risk for AD and carriers of an APOE4 ε4 allele may be more susceptible to the effects of DDE. Both DDT and DDE increase amyloid precursor protein levels, providing mechanistic plausibility for the association of DDE exposure with AD. Identifying people who have elevated levels of DDE and carry an APOE ε4 allele may lead to early identification of some cases of AD.

Levels and occupational health risk assessment of trace metals in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The levels of trace metals (Pb, Cu, Ni and Cd) were determined in soils from a major automobile repair workshop located in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. This was carried out to evaluate the potential occupational risk to operators working in and around the site. The mean of trace metal levels were: lead (14.52 mg/kg); ...

Maximum permissible dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1979-01-01

This chapter presents a historic overview of the establishment of radiation guidelines by various national and international agencies. The use of maximum permissible dose and maximum permissible body burden limits to derive working standards is discussed

Suicide Mortality Risk in Kermanshah Province, Iran: A County-level Spatial Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehran Rostami

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Kermanshah province has one of the highest suicide rates in Iran. The aim of this study is to explore spatial variations in the relative risk of suicide across the counties of Kermanshah province. Methods: This is an applied ecological study in which county-level counts of suicide deaths recorded by the forensic medicine organization of Kermanshah province during the period March 21, 2006 to March 20, 2013 have been used. Following a Bayesian approach, Besag, York and Mollie's (BYM model was fitted to the number of suicide deaths of males, females and all persons to make inference about the relative risk of suicide across the counties of the province. Results: Over the study period and based on 95% credible intervals, Kangavar, Harsin and Sonqor counties had significantly lower relative risks of suicide for both males and females, Slas-Babajani, Paveh, Javanrud and Ravansar counties had significantly lower relative risks of suicide only for males and Kermanshah county had a significantly higher relative risk of suicide only for males. The relative risk of suicide for the other counties were not significantly different from the province’s overall risk neither for males nor females. Conclusion: The counties of Kermanshah province can be classified into four categories by the level of relative risk of suicide: low relative risk for both males and females, low relative risk only for males, high relative risk only for males and average relative risk. Findings from this study could be used to specify priority counties for suicide prevention initiatives.

Applications Geiger-Muller detectors monitor the level of radioactivity in the human body

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunarwan Prayitno

2008-01-01

Nuclear technology is the technology high risk, because of an application and implementation have to support by human skill. The support facility has to complete and up to date, or modern. It means if the accident occurs in mistake have to do or delayed something, they can solved that problem. So the probability the risk of accident can be minimized. The specific problem is in the implementation nuclear technology on the human safety which is works in the radiation field or in the environment where they are working. The pointer that the problems have to design the tools monitor to monitoring the value radiation maximum was allowed. The tools monitor design is giving the information signal, if the radiation level maximum have over limit. Whereas the high and low level radiation can be just depend on the needed. (author)

Association between Serum Osteopontin Levels and Cardiovascular Risk in Hypothyrodism

OpenAIRE

Türkan Mete; Gülhan Duman; Eda Melek Ertörer; Emre Bozkırlı; Okan Sefa Bakıner; Neslihan Başçıl Tütüncü

2016-01-01

Purpose: Cardiovascular effects of hypothyroidism are well known. Osteopontin (OPN) is a new inflammatory marker which was first isolated from the bone. Flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), a noninvasive technique to measure this endothelium-dependent function, has been used in several clinical studies to show cardiovascular risks. The aim of our study was to assess FMD value in hypothyroidism patients and to investigate whether plasma OPN level is a parameter which can predict cardiovascular risk...

TEACHING WRITING USING THINK-PAIR-SHARE VIEWED FROM STUDENTS’ LEVEL OF RISK-TAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ningtyas Orilina Argawati

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Writing is considered as the most difficult skill to master compared with the other skills because it involves many language elements such as content, organization, vocabulary, grammar and mechanics. The research examines the effect of two independent variables (Think-Pair-Share and Direct instruction method on dependent variable (Writing Descriptive skill. The samples were class A1 2016 as the experimental class and A3 2016 as the control class. Each class consisted of 32 students. The instruments used covered the risk-taking’s questionnaire and writing test. Before applying the questionnaire of risk-taking, it was tried out to class A2 2016 to find out the validity and the reliability of the instrument. Meanwhile, before conducting the writing test, it needs to test the readability of the writing instruction. The treatment was conducted in eight meetings, and the 9th meeting was allocated for the post-test. The data were then analyzed using ANOVA and Tukey test. From the analysis, it reveals that: (1 Think-Pair-Share is significantly different from direct instruction method to teach writing; (2 the students with high level of risk-taking have better writing than those with low level of risk-taking; and (3 there is an interaction between teaching methods and the students’ level of risk-taking. Even though Think-Pair-Share is effective to teach writing, teachers must consider about the students’ condition, in this case their level of risk-taking.

[New approach for managing microbial risks in food].

Science.gov (United States)

Augustin, Jean-Christophe

2015-01-01

The aim of the food legislation is to ensure the protection of human health. Traditionally, the food legislation requires food business operators to apply good hygiene practices and specific procedures to control foodborne pathogens. These regulations allowed reaching a high level of health protection. The improvement of the system will require risk-based approaches. Firstly, risk assessment should allow the identification of high-risk situations where resources should be allocated for a better targeting of risk management. Then, management measures should be adapted to the health objective. In this approach, the appropriate level of protection is converted intofood safety and performance objectives on the food chain, i.e., maximum microbial contamination to fulfil the acceptable risk level. When objectives are defined, the food business operators and competent authorities can identify control options to comply with the objectives and establish microbiological criteria to verify compliance with these objectives. This approach, described for approximately 10 years, operative thanks to the development of quantitative risk assessment techniques, is still difficult to use in practical terms since it requires a commitment of competent authorities to define the acceptable risk and needs also the implementation of sometimes complex risk models.

Research on network maximum flows algorithm of cascade level graph%级连层次图的网络最大流算法研究

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

潘荷新; 伊崇信; 李满

2011-01-01

给出一种通过构造网络级连层次图的方法,来间接求出最大网络流的算法.对于给定的有n个顶点,P条边的网络N=(G,s,t,C),该算法可在O(n2)时间内快速求出流经网络N的最大网络流及达最大流时的网络流.%This paper gives an algoritm that structures a network cascade level graph to find out maximum flow of the network indirectly.For the given network N=(G,s,t,C) that has n vetexes and e arcs,this algorithm finds out the maximum value of the network flow fast in O(n2) time that flows from the network N and the network flows when the value of the one reach maximum.

Elevated Serum Pesticide Levels and Risk for Alzheimer Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Jason R.; Roy, Ananya; Shalat, Stuart L.; von Stein, Richard T.; Hossain, Muhammad M.; Buckley, Brian; Gearing, Marla; Levey, Allan I.; German, Dwight C.

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE The causes of late-onset Alzheimer disease (AD) are not yet understood but likely include a combination of genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors. Limited epidemiological studies suggest that occupational pesticide exposures are associated with AD. Previously, we reported that serum levels of dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), the metabolite of the pesticide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), were elevated in a small number of patients with AD (n=20). OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between serum levels of DDE and AD and whether the apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype modifies the association. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A case-control study consisting of existing samples from patients with AD and control participants from the Emory University Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center and the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School’s Alzheimer’s Disease Center. Serum levels of DDE were measured in 79 control and 86 AD cases. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Serum DDE levels, AD diagnosis, severity of AD measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination score, and interaction with APOE4 status. RESULTS Levels of DDE were 3.8-fold higher in the serum of those with AD (mean [SEM], 2.64 [0.35] ng/mg cholesterol) when compared with control participants (mean [SEM], 0.69 [0.1] ng/mg cholesterol; P risk for AD (95% CI, 2.54–5.82; P risk for AD and carriers of an APOE4 ε4 allele may be more susceptible to the effects of DDE. Both DDT and DDE increase amyloid precursor protein levels, providing mechanistic plausibility for the association of DDE exposure with AD. Identifying people who have elevated levels of DDE and carry an APOE ε4 allele may lead to early identification of some cases of AD. PMID:24473795

Evaluating changes to reservoir rule curves using historical water-level data

Science.gov (United States)

Mower, Ethan; Miranda, Leandro E.

2013-01-01

Flood control reservoirs are typically managed through rule curves (i.e. target water levels) which control the storage and release timing of flood waters. Changes to rule curves are often contemplated and requested by various user groups and management agencies with no information available about the actual flood risk of such requests. Methods of estimating flood risk in reservoirs are not easily available to those unfamiliar with hydrological models that track water movement through a river basin. We developed a quantile regression model that uses readily available daily water-level data to estimate risk of spilling. Our model provided a relatively simple process for estimating the maximum applicable water level under a specific flood risk for any day of the year. This water level represents an upper-limit umbrella under which water levels can be operated in a variety of ways. Our model allows the visualization of water-level management under a user-specified flood risk and provides a framework for incorporating the effect of a changing environment on water-level management in reservoirs, but is not designed to replace existing hydrological models. The model can improve communication and collaboration among agencies responsible for managing natural resources dependent on reservoir water levels.

Community Level Risk Factors for Maternal Mortality in Madagascar

African Journals Online (AJOL)

AJRH Managing Editor

This paper explores the effect of risk and socioeconomic factors on maternal mortality at the ... to study maternal mortality, however, studying maternal mortality at the community ... causes of maternal mortality at the country level in ... Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, .... cyclones, and crime can be associated with.

Genetically elevated fetuin-A levels, fasting glucose levels, and risk of type 2 diabetes: the cardiovascular health study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Majken K; Bartz, Traci M; Djoussé, Luc; Kizer, Jorge R; Zieman, Susan J; Rimm, Eric B; Siscovick, David S; Psaty, Bruce M; Ix, Joachim H; Mukamal, Kenneth J

2013-10-01

Fetuin-A levels are associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes, but it is unknown if the association is causal. We investigated common (>5%) genetic variants in the fetuin-A gene (AHSG) fetuin-A levels, fasting glucose, and risk of type 2 diabetes. Genetic variation, fetuin-A levels, and fasting glucose were assessed in 2,893 Caucasian and 542 African American community-living individuals 65 years of age or older in 1992-1993. Common AHSG variants (rs4917 and rs2248690) were strongly associated with fetuin-A concentrations (Pfasting glucose concentrations (1.9 mg/dL [95% CI, 1.2-2.7] higher per SD in Caucasians), but Mendelian randomization analyses using both SNPs as unbiased proxies for measured fetuin-A did not support an association between genetically predicted fetuin-A levels and fasting glucose (-0.3 mg/dL [95% CI, -1.9 to 1.3] lower per SD in Caucasians). The difference between the associations of fasting glucose with actual and genetically predicted fetuin-A level was statistically significant (P=0.001). Results among the smaller sample of African Americans trended in similar directions but were statistically insignificant. Common variants in the AHSG gene are strongly associated with plasma fetuin-A concentrations, but not with risk of type 2 diabetes or glucose concentrations, raising the possibility that the association between fetuin-A and type 2 diabetes may not be causal.

Detection of Residual Levels and Associated Health Risk of Seven Pesticides in Fresh Eggplant and Tomato Samples from Narayanganj District, Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md. Nur Alam

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Residual levels of seven frequently used pesticides were investigated in 140 samples of two common vegetables, eggplants and tomatoes, from agricultural fields in the Narayanganj district of Bangladesh. The analysis of pesticide residues was performed by high-performance liquid chromatography with photodiode array detection. A large percentage of the eggplants (50% and tomatoes (60% from the Narayanganj district were contaminated with pesticides, and all of the levels were above the maximum residual limit (MRL proposed by the EC regulation. Diazinon was the most common (35% pesticide detected in the vegetable samples at a concentration of 45–450 times higher than the MRL. The health risk index for diazinon was highest for both eggplant and tomato samples, which may be due to its physiochemical properties. Fenitrothion and linuron are the two second most common types of pesticides detected in the vegetable samples. Regular monitoring of the use of common pesticides on vegetables should be conducted.

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

Serum iron levels and the risk of Parkinson disease: a Mendelian randomization study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irene Pichler

Full Text Available Although levels of iron are known to be increased in the brains of patients with Parkinson disease (PD, epidemiological evidence on a possible effect of iron blood levels on PD risk is inconclusive, with effects reported in opposite directions. Epidemiological studies suffer from problems of confounding and reverse causation, and mendelian randomization (MR represents an alternative approach to provide unconfounded estimates of the effects of biomarkers on disease. We performed a MR study where genes known to modify iron levels were used as instruments to estimate the effect of iron on PD risk, based on estimates of the genetic effects on both iron and PD obtained from the largest sample meta-analyzed to date.We used as instrumental variables three genetic variants influencing iron levels, HFE rs1800562, HFE rs1799945, and TMPRSS6 rs855791. Estimates of their effect on serum iron were based on a recent genome-wide meta-analysis of 21,567 individuals, while estimates of their effect on PD risk were obtained through meta-analysis of genome-wide and candidate gene studies with 20,809 PD cases and 88,892 controls. Separate MR estimates of the effect of iron on PD were obtained for each variant and pooled by meta-analysis. We investigated heterogeneity across the three estimates as an indication of possible pleiotropy and found no evidence of it. The combined MR estimate showed a statistically significant protective effect of iron, with a relative risk reduction for PD of 3% (95% CI 1%-6%; p = 0.001 per 10 µg/dl increase in serum iron.Our study suggests that increased iron levels are causally associated with a decreased risk of developing PD. Further studies are needed to understand the pathophysiological mechanism of action of serum iron on PD risk before recommendations can be made.

Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Abid, Muhammad; Schilling, Janpeter; Scheffran, Jürgen; Zulfiqar, Farhad

2016-03-15

Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory

Multi-Level Risk Assessment of a Power Plant Gas Turbine Applying ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Multi-Level Risk Assessment of a Power Plant Gas Turbine Applying the Criticality Index Model. ... Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics ... This study has carefully shown and expressed a step by step computation of the severity level of the Turbine component parts, using the Criticality Index model.

Risk newsboy: approach for addressing uncertainty in developing action levels and cleanup limits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger; MacDonell, Margaret

2007-01-01

Site cleanup decisions involve developing action levels and residual limits for key contaminants, to assure health protection during the cleanup period and into the long term. Uncertainty is inherent in the toxicity information used to define these levels, based on incomplete scientific knowledge regarding dose-response relationships across various hazards and exposures at environmentally relevant levels. This problem can be addressed by applying principles used to manage uncertainty in operations research, as illustrated by the newsboy dilemma. Each day a newsboy must balance the risk of buying more papers than he can sell against the risk of not buying enough. Setting action levels and cleanup limits involves a similar concept of balancing and distributing risks and benefits in the face of uncertainty. The newsboy approach can be applied to develop health-based target concentrations for both radiological and chemical contaminants, with stakeholder input being crucial to assessing 'regret' levels. Associated tools include structured expert judgment elicitation to quantify uncertainty in the dose-response relationship, and mathematical techniques such as probabilistic inversion and iterative proportional fitting. (authors)

The German clinical risk management survey for hospitals: Implementation levels and areas for improvement in 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Manser, Tanja; Frings, Janina; Heuser, Gregory; Mc Dermott, Fiona

2016-01-01

Despite the growing recognition of the need to implement systematic approaches for managing the risks associated with healthcare, few studies have investigated the level of implementation for clinical risk management (CRM) at a national level. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the current level of CRM implementation in German hospitals and to explore differences across hospital types. From March to June 2015, persons responsible for CRM in 2,617 hospitals and rehabilitation clinics in Germany were invited to participate in a voluntary online survey assessing the level of implementation for various aspects of CRM: CRM strategy, structures and processes; risk assessment (risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation) with a focus on incident reporting systems; risk mitigation measures; and risk monitoring and reporting. 572 hospitals participated in the survey (response rate 22 %). Most of these hospitals had a formalised, binding CRM strategy (72 %). 66 % had a centralised and 34 % a decentralised CRM structure. We also found that, despite a broad range of risk assessment methods being applied, there was a lack of integration of risk information from different data sources. Hospitals also reported a high level of implementation of critical incident reporting systems with a strong preference for local (74 %) over transorganisational systems. This study provides relevant data to inform targeted interventions concerning CRM implementation at a national level and to consider the specific context of different types of hospitals more carefully in this process. The approach to CRM assessment illustrated in this article could be the basis of a system for monitoring CRM over time and, thus, for evaluating the impact of strategy decisions at the policy level on CRM development. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Levels of Distress in Women at Risk for Ovarian Cancer

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kash, Kathryn M

2008-01-01

The overall goal of this study was to determine the levels of distress in women with a family history of ovarian cancer and to identify the mediating factors between risk of developing ovarian cancer and distress...

The relation between serum testosterone levels and cardiovascular risk factors in patients with kidney transplantation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hulya Colak

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of the study is to evaluate the relationship between serum testos-terone levels and cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF in patients after kidney transplantation and with chronic kidney disease (CKD. Seventy-five male patients, aged between 18 and 68 years, who had kidney transplantation at least six months earlier, were enrolled into the study. Only renal transplant recipients and CKD patients with a creatinine level of 0.05. Serum testosterone levels were independent risk factors affecting IVC collapse index, systolic BP and LA. m-TORi and CNIs drugs might have no negative effect on serum testosterone levels, and improvement of the serum testosterone levels after transplantation might have a positive contribution on cardiac risk factors.

Apolipoprotein C-III Levels and Incident Coronary Artery Disease Risk: The EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Study.

Science.gov (United States)

van Capelleveen, Julian C; Bernelot Moens, Sophie J; Yang, Xiaohong; Kastelein, John J P; Wareham, Nicholas J; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; Stroes, Erik S G; Witztum, Joseph L; Hovingh, G Kees; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Tsimikas, Sotirios

2017-06-01

Apolipoprotein C-III (apoC-III) is a key regulator of triglyceride metabolism. Elevated triglyceride-rich lipoproteins and apoC-III levels are causally linked to coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. The mechanism(s) through which apoC-III increases CAD risk remains largely unknown. The aim was to confirm the association between apoC-III plasma levels and CAD risk and to explore which lipoprotein subfractions contribute to this relationship between apoC-III and CAD risk. Plasma apoC-III levels were measured in baseline samples from a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study. The study comprised 2711 apparently healthy study participants, of whom 832 subsequently developed CAD. We studied the association of baseline apoC-III levels with incident CAD risk, lipoprotein subfractions measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and inflammatory biomarkers. ApoC-III levels were significantly associated with CAD risk (odds ratio, 1.91; 95% confidence interval, 1.48-2.48 for highest compared with lowest quintile), retaining significance after adjustment for traditional CAD risk factors (odds ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.94). ApoC-III levels were positively correlated with triglyceride levels, ( r =0.39), particle numbers of very-low-density lipoprotein ( r =0.25), intermediate-density lipoprotein ( r =0.23), small dense low-density lipoprotein ( r =0.26), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ( r =0.15), whereas an inverse correlation was observed with large low-density lipoprotein particle number ( r =-0.11), P C-reactive protein. ApoC-III levels are significantly associated with incident CAD risk. Elevated levels of remnant lipoproteins, small dense low-density lipoprotein, and low-grade inflammation may explain this association. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

On the maximum drawdown during speculative bubbles

Science.gov (United States)

Rotundo, Giulia; Navarra, Mauro

2007-08-01

A taxonomy of large financial crashes proposed in the literature locates the burst of speculative bubbles due to endogenous causes in the framework of extreme stock market crashes, defined as falls of market prices that are outlier with respect to the bulk of drawdown price movement distribution. This paper goes on deeper in the analysis providing a further characterization of the rising part of such selected bubbles through the examination of drawdown and maximum drawdown movement of indices prices. The analysis of drawdown duration is also performed and it is the core of the risk measure estimated here.

Monodimensional estimation of maximum Reynolds shear stress in the downstream flow field of bileaflet valves.

Science.gov (United States)

Grigioni, Mauro; Daniele, Carla; D'Avenio, Giuseppe; Barbaro, Vincenzo

2002-05-01

Turbulent flow generated by prosthetic devices at the bloodstream level may cause mechanical stress on blood particles. Measurement of the Reynolds stress tensor and/or some of its components is a mandatory step to evaluate the mechanical load on blood components exerted by fluid stresses, as well as possible consequent blood damage (hemolysis or platelet activation). Because of the three-dimensional nature of turbulence, in general, a three-component anemometer should be used to measure all components of the Reynolds stress tensor, but this is difficult, especially in vivo. The present study aimed to derive the maximum Reynolds shear stress (RSS) in three commercially available prosthetic heart valves (PHVs) of wide diffusion, starting with monodimensional data provided in vivo by echo Doppler. Accurate measurement of PHV flow field was made using laser Doppler anemometry; this provided the principal turbulence quantities (mean velocity, root-mean-square value of velocity fluctuations, average value of cross-product of velocity fluctuations in orthogonal directions) needed to quantify the maximum turbulence-related shear stress. The recorded data enabled determination of the relationship, the Reynolds stresses ratio (RSR) between maximum RSS and Reynolds normal stress in the main flow direction. The RSR was found to be dependent upon the local structure of the flow field. The reported RSR profiles, which permit a simple calculation of maximum RSS, may prove valuable during the post-implantation phase, when an assessment of valve function is made echocardiographically. Hence, the risk of damage to blood constituents associated with bileaflet valve implantation may be accurately quantified in vivo.

Obese with higher FNDC5/Irisin levels have a better metabolic profile, lower lipopolysaccharide levels and type 2 diabetes risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonfante, Ivan Luiz Padilha; Chacon-Mikahil, Mara Patricia Traina; Brunelli, Diego Trevisan; Gáspari, Arthur Fernandes; Duft, Renata Garbellini; Oliveira, Alexandre Gabarra; Araujo, Tiago Gomes; Saad, Mario Jose Abdalla; Cavaglieri, Cláudia Regina

2017-12-01

Thus, the aim of this study was to compare if higher or smaller fibronectin type 3 domain-containing protein 5 (FNDC5)/irisin levels are associated with inflammatory and metabolic markers, caloric/macronutrient intake, physical fitness and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk in obese middle-aged men, and also to correlate all variables analyzed with FNDC5/irisin. On the basis of a cluster study, middle-aged obese men (IMC: 31.01 ± 1.64 kg/m2) were divided into groups of higher and smaller levels of FNDC5/irisin. The levels of leptin, resistin, adiponectin, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα), interleukin 6 and 10 (IL6, IL10), lipopolysaccharide (LPS), glucose, insulin, glycated hemoglobin, insulin resistance and sensibility, lipid profile, risk of T2DM development, body composition, rest energy expenditure, caloric/macronutrient intake and physical fitness were measured. The higher FNDC5/ irisin group presented improved insulin sensibility (homeostasis model assessment - sensibility (HOMA-S) (p = 0.01) and QUICKI index (p risk of T2DM development (p = 0.02), tendency to decrease serum resistin (p = 0.08) and significant lower LPS levels (p = 0.02). Inverse correlations between FNDC5/irisin and body weight (r -0.46, p = 0.04), neck circumference (r -0.51, p = 0.02), free fat mass (r -0.49, p = 0.02), triglycerides (r -0.43, p = 0.05) and risk of developing T2DM (r -0.61, p = 0.04) were observed. These results suggest that higher FNDC5/irisin levels in obese middle-aged men are related to a better metabolic profile and lower risk of T2DM development and serum LPS, a potential inducer of insulin resistance.

Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ainka A. Granderson

2014-01-01

Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

Risk comparisons relevant to sea disposal of low level radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-11-01

This document contains estimates of, and comparisons among, risks to human health posed by exposures to radionuclides, including those associated with low level radioactive wastes dumping at sea, and organic chemical contaminants resulting from seafood consumption. This study was conducted at the request of the Contracting Parties to the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter (the London Convention 1972, formerly referred to as the London Dumping Convention) as a component of a review of the wider political, legal, economic and social aspects of sea dumping of radioactive wastes. The highest potential risks associated with seafood consumption are generally those resulting from exposures to naturally occurring radionuclides. In some representations, the potential risks associated with polychlorinated biphenyls (ΣPCB) and dieldrin in seafood are of the same order as those arising from naturally occurring radionuclides. The peak annual risks resulting from low level radioactive waste dumping at sea, assessed on any rational basis, are at least two orders of magnitude lower than those associated with the ingestion of common organic chemical contaminants in seafood. 47 refs, 4 figs, 13 tabs

The Relationship Between Maximum Isometric Strength and Ball Velocity in the Tennis Serve.

Science.gov (United States)

Baiget, Ernest; Corbi, Francisco; Fuentes, Juan Pedro; Fernández-Fernández, Jaime

2016-12-01

The aims of this study were to analyze the relationship between maximum isometric strength levels in different upper and lower limb joints and serve velocity in competitive tennis players as well as to develop a prediction model based on this information. Twelve male competitive tennis players (mean ± SD; age: 17.2 ± 1.0 years; body height: 180.1 ± 6.2 cm; body mass: 71.9 ± 5.6 kg) were tested using maximum isometric strength levels (i.e., wrist, elbow and shoulder flexion and extension; leg and back extension; shoulder external and internal rotation). Serve velocity was measured using a radar gun. Results showed a strong positive relationship between serve velocity and shoulder internal rotation (r = 0.67; p isometric strength level in shoulder internal rotation was strongly related to serve velocity, and a large part of the variability in serve velocity was explained by the maximum isometric strength levels in shoulder internal rotation and shoulder flexion.

Maximum Range of a Projectile Thrown from Constant-Speed Circular Motion

Science.gov (United States)

Poljak, Nikola

2016-01-01

The problem of determining the angle ? at which a point mass launched from ground level with a given speed v[subscript 0] will reach a maximum distance is a standard exercise in mechanics. There are many possible ways of solving this problem, leading to the well-known answer of ? = p/4, producing a maximum range of D[subscript max] = v[superscript…

Determination of toxic elements (mercury, cadmium, lead, tin and arsenic) in fish and shellfish samples. Risk assessment for the consumers.

Science.gov (United States)

Olmedo, P; Pla, A; Hernández, A F; Barbier, F; Ayouni, L; Gil, F

2013-09-01

Although fish intake has potential health benefits, the presence of metal contamination in seafood has raised public health concerns. In this study, levels of mercury, cadmium, lead, tin and arsenic have been determined in fresh, canned and frozen fish and shellfish products and compared with the maximum levels currently in force. In a further step, potential human health risks for the consumers were assessed. A total of 485 samples of the 43 most frequently consumed fish and shellfish species in Andalusia (Southern Spain) were analyzed for their toxic elements content. High mercury concentrations were found in some predatory species (blue shark, cat shark, swordfish and tuna), although they were below the regulatory maximum levels. In the case of cadmium, bivalve mollusks such as canned clams and mussels presented higher concentrations than fish, but almost none of the samples analyzed exceeded the maximum levels. Lead concentrations were almost negligible with the exception of frozen common sole, which showed median levels above the legal limit. Tin levels in canned products were far below the maximum regulatory limit, indicating that no significant tin was transferred from the can. Arsenic concentrations were higher in crustaceans such as fresh and frozen shrimps. The risk assessment performed indicated that fish and shellfish products were safe for the average consumer, although a potential risk cannot be dismissed for regular or excessive consumers of particular fish species, such as tuna, swordfish, blue shark and cat shark (for mercury) and common sole (for lead). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elevated Lipoprotein(a) Levels, LPA Risk Genotypes, and Increased Risk of Heart Failure in the General Population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kamstrup, Pia R; Nordestgaard, Børge G

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study sough to test whether elevated lipoprotein(a) levels and corresponding LPA risk genotypes (low number of kringle IV type 2 repeats, rs3798220 and rs10455872, minor allele carriers) are associated with an increased risk of heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND: Elevated lipoprotein...

City-Level Adult Stroke Prevalence in Relation to Remote Sensing Derived PM2.5 Adjusting for Unhealthy Behaviors and Medical Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Z.

2018-04-01

This research explores the use of PM2.5 gird derived from remote sensing for assessing the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 (ambient air pollution of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less) on stroke, adjusting for unhealthy behaviors and medical risk factors. Health data was obtained from the newly published CDC "500 Cities Project" which provides city- and census tract-level small area estimates for chronic disease risk factors, and clinical preventive service use for the largest 500 cities in the United States. PM2.5 data was acquired from the "The Global Annual PM2.5 Grids from MODIS, MISR and SeaWiFS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), V1 (1998-2012)" datasets. Average PM2.5 were calculated for each city using a GIS zonal statistics function. Map data visualization and pattern comparison, univariate linear regression, and a multivariate linear regression model fitted using a generalized linear model via penalized maximum likelihood found that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 may increase the risk of stroke. Increasing physical activity, reducing smoking and body weight, enough sleeping, controlling diseases such as blood pressure, coronary heart disease, diabetes, and cholesterol, may mitigate the effect. PM2.5 grids derived from moderate resolution satellite remote sensing imagery may offer a unique opportunity to fill the data gap due to limited ground monitoring at broader scales. The evidence of raised stroke prevalence risk in high PM2.5 areas would support targeting of policy interventions on such areas to reduce pollution levels and protect human health.

CITY-LEVEL ADULT STROKE PREVALENCE IN RELATION TO REMOTE SENSING DERIVED PM2.5 ADJUSTING FOR UNHEALTHY BEHAVIORS AND MEDICAL RISK FACTORS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Hu

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This research explores the use of PM2.5 gird derived from remote sensing for assessing the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 (ambient air pollution of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less on stroke, adjusting for unhealthy behaviors and medical risk factors. Health data was obtained from the newly published CDC “500 Cities Project” which provides city- and census tract-level small area estimates for chronic disease risk factors, and clinical preventive service use for the largest 500 cities in the United States. PM2.5 data was acquired from the “The Global Annual PM2.5 Grids from MODIS, MISR and SeaWiFS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD, V1 (1998–2012” datasets. Average PM2.5 were calculated for each city using a GIS zonal statistics function. Map data visualization and pattern comparison, univariate linear regression, and a multivariate linear regression model fitted using a generalized linear model via penalized maximum likelihood found that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 may increase the risk of stroke. Increasing physical activity, reducing smoking and body weight, enough sleeping, controlling diseases such as blood pressure, coronary heart disease, diabetes, and cholesterol, may mitigate the effect. PM2.5 grids derived from moderate resolution satellite remote sensing imagery may offer a unique opportunity to fill the data gap due to limited ground monitoring at broader scales. The evidence of raised stroke prevalence risk in high PM2.5 areas would support targeting of policy interventions on such areas to reduce pollution levels and protect human health.

Methodology to estimate the cost of the severe accidents risk / maximum benefit; Metodologia para estimar el costo del riesgo de accidentes severos / beneficio maximo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendoza, G.; Flores, R. M.; Vega, E., E-mail: gozalo.mendoza@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

2016-09-15

For programs and activities to manage aging effects, any changes to plant operations, inspections, maintenance activities, systems and administrative control procedures during the renewal period should be characterized, designed to manage the effects of aging as required by 10 Cfr Part 54 that could impact the environment. Environmental impacts significantly different from those described in the final environmental statement for the current operating license should be described in detail. When complying with the requirements of a license renewal application, the Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis is contained in a supplement to the environmental report of the plant that meets the requirements of 10 Cfr Part 51. In this paper, the methodology for estimating the cost of severe accidents risk is established and discussed, which is then used to identify and select the alternatives for severe accident mitigation, which are analyzed to estimate the maximum benefit that an alternative could achieve if this eliminate all risk. Using the regulatory analysis techniques of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates the cost of severe accidents risk. The ultimate goal of implementing the methodology is to identify candidates for SAMA that have the potential to reduce the severe accidents risk and determine if the implementation of each candidate is cost-effective. (Author)

Maximum power point tracking for photovoltaic applications by using two-level DC/DC boost converter

Science.gov (United States)

Moamaei, Parvin

Recently, photovoltaic (PV) generation is becoming increasingly popular in industrial applications. As a renewable and alternative source of energy they feature superior characteristics such as being clean and silent along with less maintenance problems compared to other sources of the energy. In PV generation, employing a Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) method is essential to obtain the maximum available solar energy. Among several proposed MPPT techniques, the Perturbation and Observation (P&O;) and Model Predictive Control (MPC) methods are adopted in this work. The components of the MPPT control system which are P&O; and MPC algorithms, PV module and high gain DC-DC boost converter are simulated in MATLAB Simulink. They are evaluated theoretically under rapidly and slowly changing of solar irradiation and temperature and their performance is shown by the simulation results, finally a comprehensive comparison is presented.

Evaluation model for safety capacity of chemical industrial park based on acceptable regional risk

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Guohua Chen; Shukun Wang; Xiaoqun Tan

2015-01-01

The paper defines the Safety Capacity of Chemical Industrial Park (SCCIP) from the perspective of acceptable regional risk. For the purpose of exploring the evaluation model for the SCCIP, a method based on quantitative risk assessment was adopted for evaluating transport risk and to confirm reasonable safety transport capacity of chemical industrial park, and then by combining with the safety storage capacity, a SCCIP evaluation model was put forward. The SCCIP was decided by the smaller one between the largest safety storage capacity and the maximum safety transport capacity, or else, the regional risk of the park will exceed the acceptable level. The developed method was applied to a chemical industrial park in Guangdong province to obtain the maximum safety transport capacity and the SCCIP. The results can be realized in the regional risk control of the park effectively.

Assessment of the Fire Risk Levels in an Office Building and a Nightclub with Prescriptive Designs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yilmaz, D.; Steffensen, F.B.; Jomaas, Grunde

2014-01-01

A comparison of the risk level of an office building and a nightclub with code compliant prescriptive designs was conducted in order to evaluate whether an uniform safety level of the two occupancy types can be established. A risk assessment method using Monte Carlo simulations and 1- and 2-zone......-movement time and the movement time were adjusted for the required safe egress time (RSET) of the nightclub. The number of simulations required in order to obtain reliable results was considered sufficient at 20,000. The comparison of the risk profiles of the nightclub and the office building showed significant...... difference in risk levels, with that of the nightclub being substantially higher. The higher risk level in the nightclub is caused by a relatively fast mean value of the fire growth rate and the high number of occupants. Hence, the requirements in the prescriptive code do not ensure a similar safety level...

Plasma levels of nitrate and risk of prostate cancer: a prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Tianying; Wang, Yushan; Ho, Shuk-Mei; Giovannucci, Edward

2013-07-01

Nitrate and nitrite supplements have recently been shown to improve cardiovascular health, but there is concern that these supplements could contribute to the development of cancer. Previous small, cross-sectional studies reported positive associations between circulating nitrate/nitrite levels and cancer. Prospective studies examining the association between plasma nitrate and cancer, especially prostate cancer, are lacking. We conducted a nested case-control study within the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Baseline blood samples were collected in 1994, and incident cases of prostate cancer were identified from 1997 to 2005. Baseline plasma levels of nitrate were measured in the 630 cases and 630 matched controls. We have found that baseline levels of plasma nitrate were not associated with risk of prostate cancer. Compared to quintile 1, the relative risk from quintiles 2 to 5 were 1.13 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.78-1.63], 0.93 (95% CI, 0.63-1.38), 0.95 (95% CI, 0.65-1.39), and 0.99 (95% CI, 0.68-1.48); Ptrend was 0.9 after adjustment of multivariate risk factors. When analyses were restricted to men fasting more than 6 hours, the trend was similar. Furthermore, plasma nitrate seemed to be inversely associated with advanced-stage prostate cancer. The relative risk across extreme quartiles was 0.44 (95% CI, 0.17-1.12; Ptrend = 0.07) for the whole dataset and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.09-0.99; Ptrend = 0.05) for the fasting dataset. In summary, we did not find an increased risk of prostate cancer associated with higher plasma nitrate levels. A potential protective association between nitrate and aggressive forms of prostate cancer requires confirmation. Nitrate-nitrite-nitric oxide pathway has emerged as a new therapeutic pathway for chronic diseases. The results of this study certainly merit replications in other prospective studies.

Impact of natural gas extraction on PAH levels in ambient air.

Science.gov (United States)

Paulik, L Blair; Donald, Carey E; Smith, Brian W; Tidwell, Lane G; Hobbie, Kevin A; Kincl, Laurel; Haynes, Erin N; Anderson, Kim A

2015-04-21

Natural gas extraction, often referred to as "fracking," has increased rapidly in the U.S. in recent years. To address potential health impacts, passive air samplers were deployed in a rural community heavily affected by the natural gas boom. Samplers were analyzed for 62 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Results were grouped based on distance from each sampler to the nearest active well. PAH levels were highest when samplers were closest to active wells. Additionally, PAH levels closest to natural gas activity were an order of magnitude higher than levels previously reported in rural areas. Sourcing ratios indicate that PAHs were predominantly petrogenic, suggesting that elevated PAH levels were influenced by direct releases from the earth. Quantitative human health risk assessment estimated the excess lifetime cancer risks associated with exposure to the measured PAHs. Closest to active wells, the risk estimated for maximum residential exposure was 2.9 in 10 000, which is above the U.S. EPA's acceptable risk level. Overall, risk estimates decreased 30% when comparing results from samplers closest to active wells to those farthest. This work suggests that natural gas extraction may be contributing significantly to PAHs in air, at levels that are relevant to human health.

Impact of natural gas extraction on Pah levels in ambient air

Science.gov (United States)

Paulik, L. Blair; Donald, Carey E.; Smith, Brian W.; Tidwell, Lane G.; Hobbie, Kevin A.; Kincl, Laurel; Haynes, Erin N.; Anderson, Kim A.

2015-01-01

Natural gas extraction, often referred to as “fracking,” has increased rapidly in the U.S. in recent years. To address potential health impacts, passive air samplers were deployed in a rural community heavily affected by the natural gas boom. Samplers were analyzed for 62 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Results were grouped based on distance from each sampler to the nearest active well. PAH levels were highest when samplers were closest to active wells. Additionally, PAH levels closest to natural gas activity were an order of magnitude higher than levels previously reported in rural areas. Sourcing ratios indicate that PAHs were predominantly petrogenic, suggesting that elevated PAH levels were influenced by direct releases from the earth. Quantitative human health risk assessment estimated the excess lifetime cancer risks associated with exposure to the measured PAHs. Closest to active wells, the risk estimated for maximum residential exposure was 2.9 in 10,000, which is above the U.S. EPA's acceptable risk level. Overall, risk estimates decreased 30% when comparing results from samplers closest to active wells to those farthest. This work suggests that natural gas extraction may be contributing significantly to PAHs in air, at levels that are relevant to human health. PMID:25810398

Association between homocyst(e)ine levels and risk of vascular events.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, Eugene D

2003-03-01

Homocyst(e)ine is a novel risk factor in vascular disease. First observations of vascular lesions in children with high blood homocyst(e)ine levels due to severe inborn enzyme deficiencies led to the hypothesis that elevated blood homocyst(e)ine levels might be a risk factor for vascular disease. A substantial body of evidence on the role of the homocyst(e)ine in the development of coronary and carotid artery disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, deep vein thrombosis and other disorders has been accumulated over the last 30 years. Cross-sectional and case-control studies provide initial and the strongest support for the hypothesis, followed by results from the prospective cohorts. Infrequent cases of homozygous mutations of the key enzymes in the homocyst(e)ine metabolism chain are able to produce extreme homocyst(e)inemia and early vascular lesions. More frequently, heterozygous enzyme mutations and deficiencies of folate and vitamins B6 and B12 cause mild to moderate homocyst(e)inemia, which is still strongly associated with the increased risk of vascular events. Elevated homocyst(e)ine levels may be effectively managed with adequate folate, B12 and B6 intake in doses comparable to or above FDA recommendations. Whether correction of elevated homocyst(e)ine levels with vitamins is helpful in prevention and treatment of vascular events remains unknown and is under investigation in ongoing clinical trials (VISP, VITATOPS). No consensus on homocyst(e)ine management is available at the present time.

Testosterone level and risk of type 2 diabetes in men: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiu-ming Yao

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Type 2 diabetes is a risk factor for testosterone deficiency and impaired sex steroid status. Some studies also investigated the association of testosterone level with diabetes risk in men, but reported controversial findings. To clarify this issue, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science were searched for eligible cohort or nested case–control studies published up to August 15, 2017. Meta-analysis was used to calculate the pooled relative risk (RR of type 2 diabetes associated with higher testosterone level. Results: Thirteen cohort or nested case–control studies with 16,709 participants were included. Meta-analysis showed that higher total testosterone level could significantly decrease the risk of type 2 diabetes in men (RR = 0.65; 95% CI 0.50–0.84; P = 0.001, and higher free testosterone level could also decrease the risk of type 2 diabetes in men (RR = 0.94; 95% CI 0.90–0.99; P = 0.014. After excluding two studies that did not calculate RRs by quartiles of testosterone levels, both higher total testosterone and free testosterone levels could decrease the risk of type 2 diabetes in men, and the pooled RRs were 0.62 (95% CI 0.51–0.76; P < 0.001 and 0.77 (95% CI 0.61–0.98; P = 0.03, respectively. Conclusion: This meta-analysis suggests that higher testosterone level can significantly decrease the risk of type 2 diabetes in men. Therefore, combined with previous researches, the findings above suggest a reverse-causality scenario in the relation between testosterone deficiency and risk of type 2 diabetes in men.

Corporate competitiveness and sustainability risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Udo Braendle

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper aims at providing a theoretical analysis of the existing research on corporate competition and sustainability risks that occur when companies aspire to reach maximum competitive advantages and gain competitive benefits compared to their rivals. Competitiveness has been described as a multidimensional, theoretical and relative concept linked with the market mechanism. The concept of competitiveness may refer to different levels of aggregation: national, regional, industrial and individual companies. This paper contributes to the theoretical research on corporate competitiveness by the analysis of old and new definitions of this category. It also notes that the sustainability risks connected to competition can be divided into several groups where the authors highlight environmental, legal, financial risks, behaviour risks and state-related risks as the most crucial ones. For companies to be fit for the competitive challenge, the paper identifies main characteristics of such risks and gives policy guidance for their avoidance

Risk Level Based Management System: a control banding model for occupational health and safety risk management in a highly regulated environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zalk, D; Kamerzell, R; Paik, S; Kapp, J; Harrington, D; Swuste, P

2009-05-27

The Risk Level Based Management System (RLBMS) is an occupational risk management (ORM) model that focuses occupational safety, hygeiene, and health (OSHH) resources on the highest risk procedures at work. This article demonstrates the model's simplicity through an implementation within a heavily regulated research institution. The model utilizes control banding strategies with a stratification of four risk levels (RLs) for many commonly performed maintenance and support activities, characterizing risk consistently for comparable tasks. RLBMS creates an auditable tracking of activities, maximizes OSHH professional field time, and standardizes documentation and control commensurate to a given task's RL. Validation of RLs and their exposure control effectiveness is collected in a traditional quantitative collection regime for regulatory auditing. However, qualitative risk assessment methods are also used within this validation process. Participatory approaches are used throughout the RLBMS process. Workers are involved in all phases of building, maintaining, and improving this model. This work participation also improves the implementation of established controls.

The risk evaluation of a model of a high-level waste solidification plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruecher, H.

1977-02-01

In this report the risk associated with the operation of a plant for vitrification of high-level liquid waste is evaluated. Considerung risk assessment it turns out that the important accidents occur during off-gas cleaning. On the other hand effects of explosions in the process equipment don't contribute very much to the overall risk. These data are compared with the risk resulting from routine discharge of the plant. It is of the same magnitude as or greater than the most important accident risks. (orig.) [de

Guidance Manual for Conducting Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessments at the INEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

1995-06-01

This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.

Exposure levels, environmental fate modelling and human health risk assessment of lindane in Ghana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adu-Kumi, S.

2011-01-01

�-HCH which is a known environmental estrogen, was predominant contaminant measured (geometric mean concentrations 4.18 ng g -1 lipid wt. and 4.35 ng g -1 lipid wt. for pooled and individual samples respectively). The levels of Lindane, α-HCH and β-HCH in edible fish (catfish and tilapia) sourced from Lake Bosumtwi and the Weija Lake, were concurrently investigated using HRGC/HRMS. Concentrations of HCHs were found to be generally low (mainly limits of detection) probably reflecting the historical use of Lindane and technical HCH mixtures. Catfish sourced from Lake Volta (purchased from the Madina market) however contained appreciable amounts of Lindane (average concentration of 0.72 ng g -1 lipid wt). Measured values are lower than the maximum acceptable limit for human consumption established by the FAO/WHO (FAO/WHO, 1986). Hence there is no potential health risk from HCHs (Lindane, α-HCH and β-HCH) in fish for the general population of Ghana. Level III and level IV fugacity models were successfully applied to investigate the environmental fate of Lindane in the compartments of air, water, sediment, soil and biota (fish). Model estimates showed that air, water, soil and fish constitute important exposure pathways of Lindane for the general population of Ghana. The estimated total amount of Lindane accumulated in all media at steady-state was 136 tonnes, the soil compartment accounting for ore than 97% of the total accumulation. Time trends in concentration and fluxes simulated in for the period 1959-2020 predicted that less than 1% of the 2002 concentration levels of Lindane in air, water and soil, respectively, will be left in 2020. Finally, health risks associated with the exposure of the general population of Ghana to Lindane via the pathways of air, water, soil, food (or diet) were characterized using the combined field measurements and results of the multi-media environmental fate modelling. Diet (mainly vegetables), soil and to a lesser extent water constituted

Multi-level Governance in Environmental Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petra Hiller

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The article examines regulatory strategies in the field of ecological disaster management with reference to the sociology of risk. The risk perspective draws attention to the fact that political strategies of regulation are to be understood as processes of risk transformation. The behavior of regulatory agencies is related to their perception of risks and opportunities. From this point of view, efforts in the field of disaster management appear as processes that turn perceived environmental threats into risks and opportunities for the agencies involved. The article shows the course of such a governance process which transforms environmental disasters into organizational risks and opportunities. This leads to the following research question: Which types of organizations favor strategies of risk avoidance and which organizations rather allow active pursuit of opportunities? The empirical part of this study is based on data obtained by field research in a multi-level negotiation system set up for managing hazardous wastes. Empirical findings support the assumption that organizational stability is a central condition for active pursuit of opportunities whereas organizational instability supports an orientation towards the avoidance of organizational risk. El artículo examina las estrategias reguladoras en el ámbito de la gestión de los desastres ecológicos, haciendo referencia a la sociología del riesgo. La perspectiva de riesgo pone su atención sobre el hecho de que las estrategias políticas de regulación se deben entender como procesos de transformación de riesgos. El comportamiento de las agencias reguladoras se relaciona con su percepción de los riesgos y oportunidades. Desde este punto de vista, los esfuerzos en el campo de la gestión de catástrofes se convierten en procesos que transforman las amenazas medioambientales (percibidas en riesgos y oportunidades para las agencias involucradas. El artículo muestra el desarrollo de este

Tissue-Level Mechanical Properties of Bone Contributing to Fracture Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Nyman, Jeffry S; Granke, Mathilde; Singleton, Robert C; Pharr, George M

2016-08-01

Tissue-level mechanical properties characterize mechanical behavior independently of microscopic porosity. Specifically, quasi-static nanoindentation provides measurements of modulus (stiffness) and hardness (resistance to yielding) of tissue at the length scale of the lamella, while dynamic nanoindentation assesses time-dependent behavior in the form of storage modulus (stiffness), loss modulus (dampening), and loss factor (ratio of the two). While these properties are useful in establishing how a gene, signaling pathway, or disease of interest affects bone tissue, they generally do not vary with aging after skeletal maturation or with osteoporosis. Heterogeneity in tissue-level mechanical properties or in compositional properties may contribute to fracture risk, but a consensus on whether the contribution is negative or positive has not emerged. In vivo indentation of bone tissue is now possible, and the mechanical resistance to microindentation has the potential for improving fracture risk assessment, though determinants are currently unknown.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.

Environmental contaminants of emerging concern in seafood - European database on contaminant levels

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vandermeersch, Griet; Lourenço, Helena Maria; Alvarez-Muñoz, Diana

2015-01-01

Marine pollution gives rise to concern not only about the environment itself but also about the impact on food safety and consequently on public health. European authorities and consumers have therefore become increasingly worried about the transfer of contaminants from the marine environment...... to seafood.So-called "contaminants of emerging concern" are chemical substances for which no maximum levels have been laid down in EU legislation, or substances for which maximum levels have been provided but which require revision. Adequate information on their presence in seafood is often lacking and thus...... potential risks cannot be excluded. Assessment of food safety issues related to these contaminants has thus become urgent and imperative. A database (www.ecsafeseafooddbase.eu), containing available information on the levels of contaminants of emerging concern in seafood and providing the most recent data...

Association between level of suicide risk, characteristics of suicide attempts, and mental disorders among suicide attempters.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Subin; Lee, Yeeun; Youn, Tak; Kim, Byung Soo; Park, Jong Ik; Kim, Haesoo; Lee, Hyo Chu; Hong, Jin Pyo

2018-04-11

Past attempted suicide is a strong predictor of future suicide risk, but the risk varies among suicide attempters. Hence, it is important to clarify distinguishing features of lifetime attempters with a high level of current suicide risk for efficient preventive management. We compared characteristics of suicide attempts and clinical characteristics among high-, moderate-, and low-risk attempters. Among the total of 6022 participants in the Korean Epidemiologic Catchment Area study, 193 reported a suicide attempt in their lifetime, 36 of which had high, 126 moderate, and 30 low levels of current suicide risk (1 incomplete response). High-risk suicide attempters had more past attempts compared with moderate- and low-risk suicide attempters. Suicide attempts were closely linked to a wide range of psychiatric comorbidities regardless of degree of current level of suicide risk, but the relative risk for having at least one mental disorder was the highest in high-risk attempters. Specifically, the relative risks for depressive disorder, anxiety disorders including obsessive-compulsive disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder, and substance use disorders were higher in high-risk attempters, and relative risk for somatoform disorder was higher in low-risk attempters than others. Our findings indicated that special attention is required for suicide attempters with a history of repeated attempts and current mental disorders, particularly anxiety disorders.

Teen Dating Violence Victimization among High School Students: A Multilevel Analysis of School-Level Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Elizabeth M.; Johnson, Sarah Lindstrom; Debnam, Katrina J.; Milam, Adam J.; Bradshaw, Catherine P.

2017-01-01

Background: Much etiologic research has focused on individual-level risk factors for teen dating violence (TDV); therefore, less is known about school-level and neighborhood-level risk factors. We examined the association between alcohol outlet density around high schools and TDV victimization and the association between markers of physical…

The Association between Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Parental Educational Level in Portuguese Children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael J. Duncan

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine any differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk in Portuguese children split by parental educational level. A cross-sectional school-based study was conducted in 2011 on 359 Portuguese children (202 girls and 157 boys aged 10 to 17 years (mean age ± SD = 13.9 ± 1.98 years. Height and body mass were assessed to determine body mass index (BMI. Parental education level (PEL was used as a surrogate for socioeconomic status (SES. Capillary blood sampling was used to determine: Total Cholesterol (TC, Triglycerides (TG, Fasting Glucos (GLUC, High and Low Density Lipoprotein (HDL/LDL. These measurements were combined with measures of systolic blood pressure and cardiorespiratory fitness as z-scores. CVD risk was constructed by summing the z-scores. Analysis of covariance, controlling for BMI, indicated that CVD risk was significantly different across PEL groups (p = 0.01, with CVD risk score being significantly lower in low (p = 0.04 and middle (p = 0.008 PEL groups, compared to high PEL. Moreover, the covariate, BMI was also significant (p = 0.0001, β = 0.023, evidencing a significant positive association between BMI and CVD risk, with higher BMI associated with greater CVD risk. In Portuguese children, significantly greater CVD risk was found for children of high PEL, while higher BMI was associated with greater CVD risk.

GRAP, Gamma-Ray Level-Scheme Assignment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franklyn, C.B.

2002-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: An interactive program for allocating gamma-rays to an energy level scheme. Procedure allows for searching for new candidate levels of the form: 1) L1 + G(A) + G(B) = L2; 2) G(A) + G(B) = G(C); 3) G(A) + G(B) = C (C is a user defined number); 4) L1 + G(A) + G(B) + G(C) = L2. Procedure indicates intensity balance of feed and decay of each energy level. Provides for optimization of a level energy (and associated error). Overall procedure allows for pre-defining of certain gamma-rays as belonging to particular regions of the level scheme, for example, high energy transition levels, or due to beta- decay. 2 - Method of solution: Search for cases in which the energy difference between two energy levels is equal to a gamma-ray energy within user-defined limits. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maximum number of gamma-rays: 999; Maximum gamma ray energy: 32000 units; Minimum gamma ray energy: 10 units; Maximum gamma-ray intensity: 32000 units; Minimum gamma-ray intensity: 0.001 units; Maximum number of levels: 255; Maximum level energy: 32000 units; Minimum level energy: 10 units; Maximum error on energy, intensity: 32 units; Minimum error on energy, intensity: 0.001 units; Maximum number of combinations: 6400 (ca); Maximum number of gamma-ray types : 127

High levels of DDT in breast milk: Intake, risk, lactation duration, and involvement of gender

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouwman, Hindrik; Kylin, Henrik; Sereda, Barbara; Bornman, Riana

2012-01-01

We investigated presence and levels of DDT in 163 breast milk samples from four South African villages where, in three of them, malaria is controlled with DDT-sprayed indoors. Mean ΣDDT levels in breast milk were 18, 11, and 9.5 mg/kg mf (milk fat) from the three DDT-sprayed villages, respectively, including the highest ΣDDT level ever reported for breast milk from South Africa (140 mg/kg mf). Understanding the causes for these differences would be informative for exposure reduction intervention. The Provisional Tolerable Daily Intake (PTDI) for DDT by infants, and the Maximum Residue Limit (MRL) were significantly exceeded. DDT had no effect on duration of lactation. There were indications (not significant) from DDT-sprayed villages that first-born female infants drink milk with more ΣDDT than first-born male infants, and vice versa for multipara male and female infants, suggesting gender involvement on levels of DDT in breast milk – requiring further investigation. - Highlights: ► The highest ΣDDT in breast milk ever found in South Africa is reported. ► Maximum Residue Limit is exceeded, up to 99 times. ► Provisional Tolerable Daily Intake is exceeded, up to 310 times. ► High ΣDDT did not affect duration of lactation. ► Infant gender may affect levels of ΣDDT in breast milk. - High levels of DDT in breast milk from a DDT-spayed area exceeded known limits in milk, but did not affect duration lactation. Infant gender may affect levels of ΣDDT in breast milk.

Professional stress in general practitioners and psychiatrists: The level of psycologic distress and burnout risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vićentić Sreten

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. So far, studies of stress have shown that physicians are at a high risk of sickness from psychic and somatic disorders related to professional stress, that can lead to important disturbance of personal, familiar and professional functionating. The aim of this study was to investigate the doctors exposition level to professional stress, to compare stress level in general practitioners (GP group with that in the group of psychiatrists and risk level for the apperance of burnout syndrome. Methods. This cross-section study included subjects recruited by a random sample method. Thirty General Practice doctors and 30 psychiatrists (totally 60 doctors filled the set of 3 questionnaires: Sociodemographics features, General Health Questionnaire (GHQ; Goldberg D, 1991, and Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI; Maslach C, 1996. Appropriate statistical procedures (Pearson test, t-test, variance analysis in interpretation of the results were used. Results. A total level of psychic distress measured with the GHQ test in both groups of physicians was very low implying their good mental health. A difference in Burnout risk based on MBI test between the groups was statistically significant (χ2 = 4,286; p < 0.05 only at subscale Personal Accomplishment (MBI-PA; it was a consequence of a higher number of GPs with medium burnout risk (13.3 : 0.0%. However, even 35 physicians from the sample were affected with a high burnout risk measured with subscales Emotional Ehausation (MBI-EE and MBI-DP, showing that both groups of physicians had risk for the appearance of burnout syndrome. Conclusion. The obtained results showed a high burnout risk level in both, GPs and psychiatrists, groups. In both groups there was no presence of psychic disorders (anxiety, depression, insomnia, while there was a high level of emotional ehausation and overtension by job, and also a lower total personal accomplishment. Level of exposition to professional stress is higher in GPs

Changes in the Global Hydrological Cycle: Lessons from Modeling Lake Levels at the Last Glacial Maximum

Science.gov (United States)

Lowry, D. P.; Morrill, C.

2011-12-01

Geologic evidence shows that lake levels in currently arid regions were higher and lakes in currently wet regions were lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Current hypotheses used to explain these lake level changes include the thermodynamic hypothesis, in which decreased tropospheric water vapor coupled with patterns of convergence and divergence caused dry areas to become more wet and vice versa, the dynamic hypothesis, in which shifts in the jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered precipitation patterns, and the evaporation hypothesis, in which lake expansions are attributed to reduced evaporation in a colder climate. This modeling study uses the output of four climate models participating in phase 2 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2) as input into a lake energy-balance model, in order to test the accuracy of the models and understand the causes of lake level changes. We model five lakes which include the Great Basin lakes, USA; Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala; Lake Caçó, northern Brazil; Lake Tauca (Titicaca), Bolivia and Peru; and Lake Cari-Laufquen, Argentina. These lakes create a transect through the drylands of North America through the tropics and to the drylands of South America. The models accurately recreate LGM conditions in 14 out of 20 simulations, with the Great Basin lakes being the most robust and Lake Caçó being the least robust, due to model biases in portraying the ITCZ over South America. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget from one of the climate models shows that thermodynamic processes contribute most significantly to precipitation changes over the Great Basin, while dynamic processes are most significant for the other lakes. Lake Cari-Laufquen shows a lake expansion that is most likely attributed to reduced evaporation rather than changes in regional precipitation, suggesting that lake levels alone may not be the best indicator of how much precipitation this region

Maternal hormone levels and risk of cryptorchism among populations at high and low risk of testicular germ cell tumors.

Science.gov (United States)

McGlynn, Katherine A; Graubard, Barry I; Nam, Jun-Mo; Stanczyk, Frank Z; Longnecker, Matthew P; Klebanoff, Mark A

2005-07-01

Cryptorchism is one of the few well-described risk factors for testicular cancer. It has been suggested that both conditions are related to increased in utero estrogen exposure. The evidence supporting the "estrogen hypothesis" has been inconsistent, however. An alternative hypothesis suggests that higher in utero androgen exposure may protect against the development of cryptorchism and testicular cancer. In order to examine both hypotheses, we studied maternal hormone levels in two populations at diverse risks of testicular cancer; Black Americans (low-risk) and White Americans (high-risk). The study population of 200 mothers of cryptorchid sons and 200 mothers of noncryptorchid sons was nested within the Collaborative Perinatal Project, a cohort study of pregnant women and their children. Third trimester serum levels of estradiol (total, free, bioavailable), estriol, testosterone (total, free, bioavailable), sex hormone-binding globulin, alpha-fetoprotein, and the ratios of estradiols to testosterones were compared between the case and control mothers. The results found no significant differences in the levels of testosterone (total, free, bioavailable), alpha-fetoprotein, sex hormone-binding globulin, or in the ratios of estrogens to androgens. Total estradiol, however, was significantly lower in the cases versus the controls (P = 0.03) among all mothers and, separately, among White mothers (P = 0.05). Similarly, estriol was significantly lower among all cases (P = 0.05) and among White cases (P = 0.05). These results do not support either the estrogen or the androgen hypothesis. Rather, lower estrogens in case mothers may indicate that a placental defect increases the risk of cryptorchism and, possibly, testicular cancer.

Cosmic shear measurement with maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori inference

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Alex; Taylor, Andy

2017-06-01

We investigate the problem of noise bias in maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimators for cosmic shear. We derive the leading and next-to-leading order biases and compute them in the context of galaxy ellipticity measurements, extending previous work on maximum likelihood inference for weak lensing. We show that a large part of the bias on these point estimators can be removed using information already contained in the likelihood when a galaxy model is specified, without the need for external calibration. We test these bias-corrected estimators on simulated galaxy images similar to those expected from planned space-based weak lensing surveys, with promising results. We find that the introduction of an intrinsic shape prior can help with mitigation of noise bias, such that the maximum a posteriori estimate can be made less biased than the maximum likelihood estimate. Second-order terms offer a check on the convergence of the estimators, but are largely subdominant. We show how biases propagate to shear estimates, demonstrating in our simple set-up that shear biases can be reduced by orders of magnitude and potentially to within the requirements of planned space-based surveys at mild signal-to-noise ratio. We find that second-order terms can exhibit significant cancellations at low signal-to-noise ratio when Gaussian noise is assumed, which has implications for inferring the performance of shear-measurement algorithms from simplified simulations. We discuss the viability of our point estimators as tools for lensing inference, arguing that they allow for the robust measurement of ellipticity and shear.

Pareto versus lognormal: a maximum entropy test.

Science.gov (United States)

Bee, Marco; Riccaboni, Massimo; Schiavo, Stefano

2011-08-01

It is commonly found that distributions that seem to be lognormal over a broad range change to a power-law (Pareto) distribution for the last few percentiles. The distributions of many physical, natural, and social events (earthquake size, species abundance, income and wealth, as well as file, city, and firm sizes) display this structure. We present a test for the occurrence of power-law tails in statistical distributions based on maximum entropy. This methodology allows one to identify the true data-generating processes even in the case when it is neither lognormal nor Pareto. The maximum entropy approach is then compared with other widely used methods and applied to different levels of aggregation of complex systems. Our results provide support for the theory that distributions with lognormal body and Pareto tail can be generated as mixtures of lognormally distributed units.

A model for assessing the risk of human trafficking on a local level

Science.gov (United States)

Colegrove, Amanda

Human trafficking is a human rights violation that is difficult to quantify. Models for estimating the number of victims of trafficking presented by previous researchers depend on inconsistent, poor quality data. As an intermediate step to help current efforts by nonprofits to combat human trafficking, this project presents a model that is not dependent on quantitative data specific to human trafficking, but rather profiles the risk of human trafficking at the local level through causative factors. Businesses, indicated by the literature, were weighted based on the presence of characteristics that increase the likelihood of trafficking in persons. The mean risk was calculated by census tract to reveal the multiplicity of risk levels in both rural and urban settings. Results indicate that labor trafficking may be a more diffuse problem in Missouri than sex trafficking. Additionally, spatial patterns of risk remained largely the same regardless of adjustments made to the model.

Risk-informed design of IRIS using a level-1 probabilistic risk assessment from its conceptual design phase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mizuno, Yuko; Ninokata, Hisashi; Finnicum, David J.

2005-01-01

In this study, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for the International Reactor Innovative and Secure (IRIS) has been generated to address two key areas as a part of the effort for the pre-application licensing of the IRIS design. First, the IRIS PRA is supporting the evaluation of IRIS design by providing design insights as well as a solid risk basis for the pre-licensing evaluation of the IRIS design. Second, the current PRA task is beginning the preparation of the more complete PRA analyses and documentation that will be required for Design Certification. The initial IRIS PRA is an at-power, Level-1 PRA for internal events that focuses on the evaluation of the IRIS design features to support the risk-informed design of IRIS by application of the PRA insights and the risk information to the design. To accomplish the evaluation, a reasonably complete Level-1 PRA model has been developed. The use of PRA in the early stages of the design has allowed a selection of design and performance features and an optimization of the design of several systems to reduce the potential for events that could lead to core damage via both enhanced prevention and mitigation of challenges. As a result, the total core damage frequency for internal events for the IRIS design has been calculated as 1.2x10 -8 per year

Novel methods for estimating lithium-ion battery state of energy and maximum available energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng, Linfeng; Zhu, Jianguo; Wang, Guoxiu; He, Tingting; Wei, Yiying

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Study on temperature, current, aging dependencies of maximum available energy. • Study on the various factors dependencies of relationships between SOE and SOC. • A quantitative relationship between SOE and SOC is proposed for SOE estimation. • Estimate maximum available energy by means of moving-window energy-integral. • The robustness and feasibility of the proposed approaches are systematic evaluated. - Abstract: The battery state of energy (SOE) allows a direct determination of the ratio between the remaining and maximum available energy of a battery, which is critical for energy optimization and management in energy storage systems. In this paper, the ambient temperature, battery discharge/charge current rate and cell aging level dependencies of battery maximum available energy and SOE are comprehensively analyzed. An explicit quantitative relationship between SOE and state of charge (SOC) for LiMn_2O_4 battery cells is proposed for SOE estimation, and a moving-window energy-integral technique is incorporated to estimate battery maximum available energy. Experimental results show that the proposed approaches can estimate battery maximum available energy and SOE with high precision. The robustness of the proposed approaches against various operation conditions and cell aging levels is systematically evaluated.

Accurate Maximum Power Tracking in Photovoltaic Systems Affected by Partial Shading

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierluigi Guerriero

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A maximum power tracking algorithm exploiting operating point information gained on individual solar panels is presented. The proposed algorithm recognizes the presence of multiple local maxima in the power voltage curve of a shaded solar field and evaluates the coordinated of the absolute maximum. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is evidenced by means of circuit level simulation and experimental results. Experiments evidenced that, in comparison with a standard perturb and observe algorithm, we achieve faster convergence in normal operating conditions (when the solar field is uniformly illuminated and we accurately locate the absolute maximum power point in partial shading conditions, thus avoiding the convergence on local maxima.

The Maximum Entropy Principle and the Modern Portfolio Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ailton Cassetari

2003-12-01

Full Text Available In this work, a capital allocation methodology base don the Principle of Maximum Entropy was developed. The Shannons entropy is used as a measure, concerning the Modern Portfolio Theory, are also discuted. Particularly, the methodology is tested making a systematic comparison to: 1 the mean-variance (Markovitz approach and 2 the mean VaR approach (capital allocations based on the Value at Risk concept. In principle, such confrontations show the plausibility and effectiveness of the developed method.

Ecological risk assessment of deep geological disposal of high-level nuclear waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hart, D.R.; Lush, D.L.; Acton, D.W.

1993-01-01

Contaminant fate and transport models, radiological dosimetry models, chemical dose-response models and population dynamic models were used to estimate ecological risks to moose and brook trout populations arising from a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository. Risks from potential contaminant releases were compared with risks from physical habitat alteration in constructing a repository and service community, and with risks from increased hunting and fish pressure in the area. For a reference environment typical of a proposed location somewhere in the Canadian Shield, preliminary results suggest that the population consequences of contaminant release will be minor relative to those of habitat alteration and natural resource use

Diet composition and activity level of at risk and metabolically healthy obese American adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Hankinson, Arlene L; Daviglus, Martha L; Van Horn, Linda; Chan, Queenie; Brown, Ian; Holmes, Elaine; Elliott, Paul; Stamler, Jeremiah

2013-03-01

Obesity often clusters with other major cardiovascular disease risk factors, yet a subset of the obese appears to be protected from these risks. Two obesity phenotypes are described, (i) "metabolically healthy" obese, broadly defined as body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m(2) and favorable levels of blood pressure, lipids, and glucose; and (ii) "at risk" obese, BMI ≥ 30 with unfavorable levels of these risk factors. More than 30% of obese American adults are metabolically healthy. Diet and activity determinants of obesity phenotypes are unclear. We hypothesized that metabolically healthy obese have more favorable behavioral factors, including less adverse diet composition and higher activity levels than at risk obese in the multi-ethnic group of 775 obese American adults ages 40-59 years from the International Population Study on Macro/Micronutrients and Blood Pressure (INTERMAP) cohort. In gender-stratified analyses, mean values for diet composition and activity behavior variables, adjusted for age, race, and education, were compared between metabolically healthy and at risk obese. Nearly one in five (149/775 or 19%) of obese American INTERMAP participants were classified as metabolically healthy obese. Diet composition and most activity behaviors were similar between obesity phenotypes, although metabolically healthy obese women reported higher sleep duration than at risk obese women. These results do not support hypotheses that diet composition and/or physical activity account for the absence of cardiometabolic abnormalities in metabolically healthy obese. Copyright © 2012 The Obesity Society.

Circulating Cholesterol Levels May Link to the Factors Influencing Parkinson’s Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lijun Zhang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available ObjectivesA growing literature suggests that circulating cholesterol levels have been associated with Parkinson’s disease (PD. In this study, we investigated a possible causal basis for the cholesterol-PD link.MethodsFasting plasma cholesterol levels were obtained from 91 PD and 70 age- and gender-matched controls from an NINDS PD Biomarkers Program cohort at the Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine. Based on the literature, genetic polymorphisms in selected cholesterol management genes (APOE, LDLR, LRP1, and LRPAP1 were chosen as confounding variables because they may influence both cholesterol levels and PD risk. First, the marginal structure model was applied, where the associations of total- and LDL-cholesterol levels with genetic polymorphisms, statin usage, and smoking history were estimated using linear regression. Then, potential causal influences of total- and LDL-cholesterol on PD occurrence were investigated using a generalized propensity score approach in the second step.ResultsBoth statins (p < 0.001 and LRP1 (p < 0.03 influenced total- and LDL-cholesterol levels. There also was a trend for APOE to affect total- and LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.08 for both, and for LRPAR1 to affect LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.05. Conversely, LDLR did not influence plasma cholesterol levels (p > 0.19. Based on propensity score methods, lower total- and LDL-cholesterol were significantly linked to PD (p < 0.001 and p = 0.04, respectively.ConclusionThe current study suggests that circulating total- and LDL-cholesterol levels potentially may be linked to the factor(s influencing PD risk. Further studies to validate these results would impact our understanding of the role of cholesterol as a risk factor in PD, and its relationship to recent public health controversies.

Association of dental enamel lead levels with risk factors for environmental exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Olympio, Kelly Polido Kaneshiro; Naozuka, Juliana; Oliveira, Pedro Vitoriano; Cardoso, Maria Regina Alves; Bechara, Etelvino José Henriques; Günther, Wanda Maria Risso

2010-10-01

To analyze household risk factors associated with high lead levels in surface dental enamel. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 160 Brazilian adolescents aged 1418 years living in poor neighborhoods in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, from August to December 2008. Body lead concentrations were assessed in surface dental enamel acid-etch microbiopsies. Dental enamel lead levels were measured by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry and phosphorus levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. The parents answered a questionnaire about their children's potential early (05 years old) exposure to well-known lead sources. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between dental enamel lead levels and each environmental risk factor studied. Social and familial covariables were included in the models. The results suggest that the adolescents studied were exposed to lead sources during their first years of life. Risk factors associated with high dental enamel lead levels were living in or close to a contaminated area (OR = 4.49; 95% CI: 1.69;11.97); and member of the household worked in the manufacturing of paints, paint pigments, ceramics or batteries (OR = 3.43; 95% CI: 1.31;9.00). Home-based use of lead-glazed ceramics, low-quality pirated toys, anticorrosive paint on gates and/or sale of used car batteries (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 0.56;3.03) and smoking (OR = 1.66; 95% CI: 0.52;5.28) were not found to be associated with high dental enamel lead levels. Surface dental enamel can be used as a marker of past environmental exposure to lead and lead concentrations detected are associated to well-known sources of lead contamination.

Pre-diagnostic plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and risk of non-melanoma skin cancer in women.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geyu Liang

Full Text Available Recent reports have shown that vitamin D status was inversely associated with the risk of various cancers. However, few studies examined the association between vitamin D levels and risk of skin cancer.We prospectively evaluated the association between baseline plasma 25(OHD levels and the risk of incident squamous cell carcinoma (SCC and basal cell carcinoma (BCC among 4,641 women from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS and the NHS II with 510 incident BCC cases and 75 incident SCC cases. We used multivariate logistic regression models to calculate odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs.Plasma 25(OHD levels were positively associated with risk of BCC after adjusting for age at blood draw, season of blood draw, lab batch, hair color, burning tendency, the number of sunburns, and ultra-violet B flux of residence at blood collection. Women in the highest quartile of 25(OHD had more than 2-fold increased risk of BCC compared with women in the lowest quartile (OR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.52-2.80, P for trend <0.0001. We also found a significantly positive association between plasma 25(OHD levels and SCC risk after adjusting for the same covariates (OR, highest vs. lowest quartile = 3.77, 95% CI = 1.70-8.36, P for trend= 0.0002.In this prospective study of women, plasma vitamin D levels were positively associated with non-melanoma skin cancer risk. Considering that most circulating vitamin D is due to sun exposure, the positive association between plasma vitamin D and non-melanoma skin cancer is confounded by sun exposure. Our data suggest that one-time measurement of plasma vitamin D levels may reasonably reflect long-term sun exposure and predict the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer.

Risk assessment and level of physical activity of students in Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jolanta Grażyna Zuzda

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Aim . The aim of the study was to determine the risks of activity by using Physical Activity Readiness Questionnaire (PAR-Q and describe the PA profile using the short-version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ-SF among selected groups of sport science students. Material and methods The study covered 99 students - 61 females aged 21.08 ± 1.43 and 38 males aged 21.24 ± 1.22 y. In order to asses and stratify the risk of PA the Polish short version of the IPAQ-SF was used. Results. The total level of physical activity of the male students was 3460.039±2502.207 MET- min/week and was higher than in the case of female students (3388,107±2204,290 MET- min/week. The dominant type physical activity of female and male students was intensive effort. Among 22 men and 39 women, risk factors for cardiac events, pulmonary and musculoskeletal injuries were reported. The relationship between PAR-Q results and the on the IPAQ-SF results was no statistically significant. Conclusions This study demonstrates that students achieve the level of physical activity recommended by experts for the prevention of chronic diseases. This research allows sports science students to understand their own health issues through self-assessments of personal risk factors for cardiac events, pulmonary and musculoskeletal injury.

Occupational risk from radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmitz-Feuerhake, I.

1988-01-01

In this paper, the author shows that a real and concrete elevation of cancer cases has to be expected in all groups of occupationally irradiated perons. The risk figure one should use for mortality is 0.1% per rem of whole body dose. The mean dose registered for these persons lies well below the maximum permissible dose. In Germany there are about 0.2 rem per year in medical people and below 0.5 rem per year in the nuclear industry. But there are risk groups working in situations with typical higher exposure. In medicine, these are for example nurses working with radium implants in radiotherapy units, technicians doing cardiac catheterization and cholangiogrammes, nurses and physicians holding very young patient during X-ray investigations. In the nuclear industry there are also high level and low level working areas. Highest doses are generally delivered to personnel who are engaged from outside for revision and cleaning procedures

Reduction of risk level as one of the main challenges of development in covered karst regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Makhnatov Stanislav A.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper describes the experience of application of the residual karst risk concept, and presents coefficients of karst risk level reduction for planning constructional karst-protection. Practical experience of design for karstified territories of Nizhny Novgorod region demonstrates that special research of the interaction between constructions and foundations is required. Numerous accidents can serve vivid examples proving the need. I2n this situation it is important to approach the issue of safety in a proper way, taking into account probable economic, environmental and social damage. The problem can be solved by introduction of the karst risk level parameter, which permits to take into consideration constructional characteristics of objects (design philosophy, service life, as well as conditions and mechanisms of interaction between the foundation and the construction (sinkholes, local subsidence, karst-suffosion deformations, etc.. The importance of risk reduction is highlighted by current Russian Federal laws. Depending on karst risk level adequate karst-protection should be performed. For building projects, reduction of karst risk to a permissible level (conventionally equal to 1 is one of the most important research challenges of the karstified territories development, and its solution permits to plan appropriate karst protection measures.

Serum selenium level and risk of lung cancer mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Suadicani, P; Hein, H O; Gyntelberg, F

2011-01-01

Serum selenium has been implicated as a risk factor for lung cancer, but the issue remains unsettled. We tested in a cohort of 3,333 males aged 53 to 74 years the hypothesis that a low serum selenium would be associated with an increased risk of lung cancer mortality.During 16 years, 167 subjects(5.......1%) died from lung cancer; 48 males (5.0%) among males with low serum selenium, 0.4-1.0 μmol·l(-1), n=965, 57 males (5.1%) among males with medium serum selenium, 1.1-1.2 μmol·l(-1), n=1,141, and 62 males (5.1%) among males with high serum selenium, 1.3-3.0 μmol·l(-1), n=1,227. After adjustment for age...... (chronic bronchitis and peak flow), referencing the lowest level of serum selenium HRs were 1.17(0.79-1.75), and 1.43(0.96-2.14), respectively. Among heavy smokers a high serum selenium was associated with a significantly increased risk of lung cancer mortality after taking into account all potential...

Plasma levels of apolipoprotein E and risk of dementia in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Katrine L.; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne; Nordestgaard, Børge G

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele is a major genetic risk factor for Alzheimer disease and dementia. However, it remains unclear whether plasma levels of apoE confer additional risk. We tested this hypothesis. METHODS: Using 75,708 participants from the general population, we tested...... whether low plasma levels of apoE at study enrollment were associated with increased risk of future Alzheimer disease and all dementia, and whether this association was independent of ε2/ε3/ε4 APOE genotype. RESULTS: Multifactorially adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for Alzheimer disease and all dementia...... adjustment for ε2/ε3/ε4 APOE genotype, plasma apoE tertiles remained associated with Alzheimer disease (p for trend = 0.007) and all dementia (p for trend = 0.04). Plasma apoE tertiles did not interact with ε2/ε3/ε4 APOE genotype on risk of Alzheimer disease (p = 0.53) or all dementia (p = 0...

Development of prolonged standing strain index to quantify risk levels of standing jobs.

Science.gov (United States)

Halim, Isa; Omar, Abdul Rahman

2012-01-01

Many occupations in industry such as metal stamping workers, electronics parts assembly operators, automotive industry welders, and lathe operators require working in a standing posture for a long time. Prolonged standing can contribute to discomfort and muscle fatigue particularly in the back and legs. This study developed the prolonged standing strain index (PSSI) to quantify the risk levels caused by standing jobs, and proposed recommendations to minimize the risk levels. Risk factors associated with standing jobs, such as working posture, muscles activity, standing duration, holding time, whole-body vibration, and indoor air quality, were the basis for developing the PSSI. All risk factors were assigned multipliers, and the PSSI was the product of those multipliers. Recommendations for improvement are based on the PSSI; however, extensive studies are required to validate their effectiveness. multipliers, and the PSSI was the product of those multipliers. Recommendations for improvement are based on the PSSI; however, extensive studies are required to validate their effectiveness.

Low burnout risk and high engagement levels among oral and maxillofacial surgeons

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gorter, R.C.; Jacobs, B.L.T.H.; Allard, R.H.B.

2012-01-01

Little is known about the well-being of oral and maxillofacial surgeons. The aim of this study was to measure the levels of burnout risk and the demanding work aspects of Dutch oral and maxillofacial surgeons, as well as the levels of positive work engagement and stimulating aspects of the work

A review of regulatory risk assessment with formaldehyde as an example.

Science.gov (United States)

Imbus, H R

1988-09-01

Quantitative risk assessment may vary by over a millionfold depending upon the model used. The EPA currently uses models which project the highest potential risk. Furthermore, there is no consideration of the probability that a chemical is a human carcinogen. Such an approach may result in unrealistically high risk at exposures far below current ambient levels. In the case of formaldehyde, three alternative approaches to risk assessment are examined. One uses the maximum likelihood estimate of the multistage model, another uses the no observable adverse effect level divided by a safety factor of 100, and the third uses a probability estimate that the substance is carcinogenic at typical ambient exposures multiplied by EPA's upper bound estimate. The probability estimate is made from considerations of metabolism and pharmacokinetics, toxicology, short-term tests, animal tests, and epidemiology.

Predicting location-specific extreme coastal floods in the future climate by introducing a probabilistic method to calculate maximum elevation of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of water level variations and wind waves

Science.gov (United States)

Leijala, Ulpu; Björkqvist, Jan-Victor; Johansson, Milla M.; Pellikka, Havu

2017-04-01

Future coastal management continuously strives for more location-exact and precise methods to investigate possible extreme sea level events and to face flooding hazards in the most appropriate way. Evaluating future flooding risks by understanding the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level variations and wind waves is one of the means to make more comprehensive flooding hazard analysis, and may at first seem like a straightforward task to solve. Nevertheless, challenges and limitations such as availability of time series of the sea level and wave height components, the quality of data, significant locational variability of coastal wave height, as well as assumptions to be made depending on the study location, make the task more complicated. In this study, we present a statistical method for combining location-specific probability distributions of water level variations (including local sea level observations and global mean sea level rise) and wave run-up (based on wave buoy measurements). The goal of our method is to obtain a more accurate way to account for the waves when making flooding hazard analysis on the coast compared to the approach of adding a separate fixed wave action height on top of sea level -based flood risk estimates. As a result of our new method, we gain maximum elevation heights with different return periods of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of both phenomena, "the green water". We also introduce a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the properties and functioning of our method. The sensitivity test is based on using theoretical wave distributions representing different alternatives of wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with the sea level distribution, we get information on how the different wave height conditions and shape of the wave height distribution influence the joint results. Our method presented here can be used as an advanced tool to minimize over- and

A conductance maximum observed in an inward-rectifier potassium channel

OpenAIRE

1994-01-01

One prediction of a multi-ion pore is that its conductance should reach a maximum and then begin to decrease as the concentration of permeant ion is raised equally on both sides of the membrane. A conductance maximum has been observed at the single-channel level in gramicidin and in a Ca(2+)-activated K+ channel at extremely high ion concentration (> 1,000 mM) (Hladky, S. B., and D. A. Haydon. 1972. Biochimica et Biophysica Acta. 274:294-312; Eisenmam, G., J. Sandblom, and E. Neher. 1977. In ...

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2009-10-01

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

Epidemiological studies on the effects of low-level ionizing radiation on cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akiba, Suminori

2010-01-01

The health effects of low-level ionizing radiation are yet unclear. As pointed out by Upton in his review (Upton, 1989), low-level ionizing radiation seems to have different biological effects from what high-level radiation has. If so, the hazard identification of ionizing radiation should he conducted separately for low- and high-level ionizing radiation; the hazard identification of low-level radiation is yet to be completed. What makes hazard identification of ionizing radiation difficult, particularly in the case of carcinogenic effect, is the difficulty in distinguishing radiation-induced cancer from other cancers with respect to clinicopathological features and molecular biological characteristics. Actually, it is suspected that radiation-induced carcinogenesis involves mechanisms not specific for radiation, such as oxidative stress. Excess risk per dose in medium-high dose ranges can be extrapolated to a low-dose range if dose-response can be described by the linear-non-threshold model. The cancer risk data of atomic-bomb survivors describes leukemia risk with a linear-quadratic (LQ) model and solid-cancer risk with linear non-threshold (LNT) model. The LQ model for leukemia and the LNT model for solid cancer correspond to the two-hit model and the one-hit model, respectively. Although the one-hit model is an unlikely dose-response for carcinogenesis, there is no convincing epidemiological evidence supporting the LQ model or non-threshold model for solid cancer. It should be pointed out, however, even if the true dose response is non-linear various noises involved in epidemiological data may mask the truth. In this paper, the potential contribution of epidemiological studies on nuclear workers and residents in high background radiation areas will be discussed. (author)

Association of Folate Level in Blood with the Risk of Schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Yujie; Ju, Mingliang; He, Lin; Chen, Wenzhong

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between folate level and the risk of schizophrenia and to identify possible biomarker for schizophrenia. Data about folate were extracted from 16 high quality studies. The association of folate level in blood and schizophrenia was evaluated using standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Totally 1183 (52.1%) cases and 1089 (47.9%) controls were included in the current metaanalysis. Folate level in schizophrenia patients was significantly lower than that in healthy controls (SMD= -0.65; 95% CI: [-0.86, -0.45]; P 0.05). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that these results were stable and reliable, no publication bias existed in our meta-analysis based on Egger's and Begg's tests (P=0.48 and 0.30, respectively). These results suggest that decreased folate may be a risk factor for schizophrenia. More epidemiological and biochemistry studies are required to describe how folate or folate supplementation play roles in the progress of schizophrenia. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Ping

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

The Relationship Between Maximum Isometric Strength and Ball Velocity in the Tennis Serve

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baiget Ernest

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The aims of this study were to analyze the relationship between maximum isometric strength levels in different upper and lower limb joints and serve velocity in competitive tennis players as well as to develop a prediction model based on this information. Twelve male competitive tennis players (mean ± SD; age: 17.2 ± 1.0 years; body height: 180.1 ± 6.2 cm; body mass: 71.9 ± 5.6 kg were tested using maximum isometric strength levels (i.e., wrist, elbow and shoulder flexion and extension; leg and back extension; shoulder external and internal rotation. Serve velocity was measured using a radar gun. Results showed a strong positive relationship between serve velocity and shoulder internal rotation (r = 0.67; p < 0.05. Low to moderate correlations were also found between serve velocity and wrist, elbow and shoulder flexion – extension, leg and back extension and shoulder external rotation (r = 0.36 – 0.53; p = 0.377 – 0.054. Bivariate and multivariate models for predicting serve velocity were developed, with shoulder flexion and internal rotation explaining 55% of the variance in serve velocity (r = 0.74; p < 0.001. The maximum isometric strength level in shoulder internal rotation was strongly related to serve velocity, and a large part of the variability in serve velocity was explained by the maximum isometric strength levels in shoulder internal rotation and shoulder flexion.

Optimal Portfolio Strategy under Rolling Economic Maximum Drawdown Constraints

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaojian Yu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of optimal portfolio strategy under the constraints of rolling economic maximum drawdown. A more practical strategy is developed by using rolling Sharpe ratio in computing the allocation proportion in contrast to existing models. Besides, another novel strategy named “REDP strategy” is further proposed, which replaces the rolling economic drawdown of the portfolio with the rolling economic drawdown of the risky asset. The simulation tests prove that REDP strategy can ensure the portfolio to satisfy the drawdown constraint and outperforms other strategies significantly. An empirical comparison research on the performances of different strategies is carried out by using the 23-year monthly data of SPTR, DJUBS, and 3-month T-bill. The investment cases of single risky asset and two risky assets are both studied in this paper. Empirical results indicate that the REDP strategy successfully controls the maximum drawdown within the given limit and performs best in both return and risk.

Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

2016-04-01

In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

Is use of fall risk-increasing drugs in an elderly population associated with an increased risk of hip fracture, after adjustment for multimorbidity level

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorell, Kristine; Ranstad, Karin; Midlöv, Patrik

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for hip fracture are well studied because of the negative impact on patients and the community, with mortality in the first year being almost 30% in the elderly. Age, gender and fall risk-increasing drugs, identified by the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden......, are well known risk factors for hip fracture, but how multimorbidity level affects the risk of hip fracture during use of fall risk-increasing drugs is to our knowledge not as well studied. This study explored the relationship between use of fall risk-increasing drugs in combination with multimorbidity...... level and risk of hip fracture in an elderly population. METHODS: Data were from Östergötland County, Sweden, and comprised the total population in the county aged 75 years and older during 2006. The odds ratio (OR) for hip fracture during use of fall risk-increasing drugs was calculated by multivariate...

Neutron spectra unfolding with maximum entropy and maximum likelihood

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Itoh, Shikoh; Tsunoda, Toshiharu

1989-01-01

A new unfolding theory has been established on the basis of the maximum entropy principle and the maximum likelihood method. This theory correctly embodies the Poisson statistics of neutron detection, and always brings a positive solution over the whole energy range. Moreover, the theory unifies both problems of overdetermined and of underdetermined. For the latter, the ambiguity in assigning a prior probability, i.e. the initial guess in the Bayesian sense, has become extinct by virtue of the principle. An approximate expression of the covariance matrix for the resultant spectra is also presented. An efficient algorithm to solve the nonlinear system, which appears in the present study, has been established. Results of computer simulation showed the effectiveness of the present theory. (author)

Maximum Power from a Solar Panel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Miller

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Solar energy has become a promising alternative to conventional fossil fuel sources. Solar panels are used to collect solar radiation and convert it into electricity. One of the techniques used to maximize the effectiveness of this energy alternative is to maximize the power output of the solar collector. In this project the maximum power is calculated by determining the voltage and the current of maximum power. These quantities are determined by finding the maximum value for the equation for power using differentiation. After the maximum values are found for each time of day, each individual quantity, voltage of maximum power, current of maximum power, and maximum power is plotted as a function of the time of day.

Circulating irisin levels are positively associated with metabolic risk factors in sedentary subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno, María; Moreno-Navarrete, José María; Serrano, Marta; Ortega, Francisco; Delgado, Elías; Sanchez-Ragnarsson, Cecilia; Valdés, Sergio; Botas, Patricia; Ricart, Wifredo; Fernández-Real, José Manuel

2015-01-01

A physically active life-style plays an independent role in the protection against type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Irisin, a novel exercise-induced myokine, activates thermogenesis in rodents through increasing beige fat cells abundance within white fat. We aimed to investigate circulating irisin levels in association with the degree of physical activity and various metabolic parameters in humans. Circulating irisin levels (ELISA) and metabolic parameters were analyzed in 428 subjects (195 men/233 women). Participants were classified according to their self-reported physical activity and to their area of residence. Circulating irisin levels were higher in active than in sedentary subjects (p = 0.006). Rural inhabitants showed higher circulating irisin levels than urban subjects (p sedentary participants, irisin levels were positively associated with metabolic risk factors (BMI, fasting insulin, HOMA and fasting triglycerides). The area of residence (β = - 0.592, p = sedentary participants, circulating irisin levels were positively associated with parameters related to an increased cardiometabolic risk. The present study confirmed that an active lifestyle increases circulating irisin levels, but only among subjects living in a rural environment. Area of residence might be a determinant of irisin levels.

Is the maximum permissible radiation burden for the population indeed permissible

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renesse, R.L. van.

1975-01-01

It is argued that legislation based on the ICRP doses will, under economical influences, lead to a situation where the population is exposed to radiation doses near the maximum permissible dose. Due to cumulative radiation effects, this will introduce unacceptable health risks. Therefore, it will be necessary to lower the legal dose limit of 170 millrem per year per person by a factor 10 to 20

Association of dental enamel lead levels with risk factors for environmental exposure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelly Polido Kaneshiro Olympio

2010-10-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To analyze household risk factors associated with high lead levels in surface dental enamel. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 160 Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years living in poor neighborhoods in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, from August to December 2008. Body lead concentrations were assessed in surface dental enamel acid-etch microbiopsies. Dental enamel lead levels were measured by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry and phosphorus levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. The parents answered a questionnaire about their children's potential early (05 years old exposure to well-known lead sources. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between dental enamel lead levels and each environmental risk factor studied. Social and familial covariables were included in the models. RESULTS: The results suggest that the adolescents studied were exposed to lead sources during their first years of life. Risk factors associated with high dental enamel lead levels were living in or close to a contaminated area (OR = 4.49; 95% CI: 1.69;11.97; and member of the household worked in the manufacturing of paints, paint pigments, ceramics or batteries (OR = 3.43; 95% CI: 1.31;9.00. Home-based use of lead-glazed ceramics, low-quality pirated toys, anticorrosive paint on gates and/or sale of used car batteries (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 0.56;3.03 and smoking (OR = 1.66; 95% CI: 0.52;5.28 were not found to be associated with high dental enamel lead levels. CONCLUSIONS: Surface dental enamel can be used as a marker of past environmental exposure to lead and lead concentrations detected are associated to well-known sources of lead contamination.

Policy-level interventions and work-related psychosocial risk management in the European Union

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leka, S.; Jain, A.; Zwetsloot, G.I.J.M.; Cox, T.

2010-01-01

There exists a substantial degree of diversity across strategies to prevent and manage work- related psychosocial risks and their associated health effects. Whereas it is common to distinguish between organizational and individual interventions, the important level of policy- level interventions has

Plasma Riboflavin Level is Associated with Risk, Relapse, and Survival of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shan-Shan; Xu, Yi-Wei; Wu, Jian-Yi; Tan, Hua-Zhen; Wu, Zhi-Yong; Xue, Yu-Jie; Zhang, Jian-Jun; Li, En-Min; Xu, Li-Yan

2017-01-01

Riboflavin is an essential micronutrient for normal cellular activity, and deficiency may result in disease, such as cancer. We performed a case-control study to explore the association of riboflavin levels with risk and prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Plasma riboflavin levels, as measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), in ESCC patients were significantly lower than in those of healthy controls (7.04 ± 6.34 ng/ml vs. 9.32 ± 12.40 ng/ml; P riboflavin level and risk of ESCC (odds ratio (OR) = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.95-0.99, P =  0.02). The 5-year relapse-free and overall survival rates were significantly lower when riboflavin levels were ≤0.8 ng/ml than >0.8 ng/ml (relapse-free survival rate: 29.4% vs. 54.8%; overall survival rate: 28.6% vs. 55.6%). Plasma riboflavin level was an independent protective factor for both relapse-free (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.325, 95% CI = 0.161-0.657, P = 0.002) and overall survival of ESCC patients (HR = 0.382, 95% CI = 0.190-0.768, P = 0.007). In conclusion, plasma riboflavin levels are significantly related to risk and prognosis of ESCC patients, suggesting that moderate supplementation of riboflavin will decrease risk and prevent recurrence of ESCC and also improve prognosis of ESCC patients.

A local maximum in gibberellin levels regulates maize leaf growth by spatial control of cell division.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelissen, Hilde; Rymen, Bart; Jikumaru, Yusuke; Demuynck, Kirin; Van Lijsebettens, Mieke; Kamiya, Yuji; Inzé, Dirk; Beemster, Gerrit T S

2012-07-10

Plant growth rate is largely determined by the transition between the successive phases of cell division and expansion. A key role for hormone signaling in determining this transition was inferred from genetic approaches and transcriptome analysis in the Arabidopsis root tip. We used the developmental gradient at the maize leaf base as a model to study this transition, because it allows a direct comparison between endogenous hormone concentrations and the transitions between dividing, expanding, and mature tissue. Concentrations of auxin and cytokinins are highest in dividing tissues, whereas bioactive gibberellins (GAs) show a peak at the transition zone between the division and expansion zone. Combined metabolic and transcriptomic profiling revealed that this GA maximum is established by GA biosynthesis in the division zone (DZ) and active GA catabolism at the onset of the expansion zone. Mutants defective in GA synthesis and signaling, and transgenic plants overproducing GAs, demonstrate that altering GA levels specifically affects the size of the DZ, resulting in proportional changes in organ growth rates. This work thereby provides a novel molecular mechanism for the regulation of the transition from cell division to expansion that controls organ growth and size. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Research into Evaluation of Basketball Athletes' Risk Perception Level

Science.gov (United States)

Karatas, Ozgur

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to compare the risk perception levels of Basketball athletes in Turkish League teams according to some variables. In this research the "general screening model," which is one of the descriptive screening methods, was used. While the population of the study consists of athletes actively engaged in the Turkish…

Determination of risk factors and level of awareness of caprine ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In Oju, goats are the major livestock kept and there is a well established goat market held every five days. This study was aimed at determining the risk factors associated with caprine brucellosis and assessing level of awareness amongst goat owners in Oju Local Government Area (LGA) of Benue State using a structured ...

Cervical cancer risk levels in Turkey and compliance to the national cervical cancer screening standard.

Science.gov (United States)

Açikgöz, Ayla; Ergör, Gül

2011-01-01

Cervical cancer screening with Pap smear test is a cost-effective method. The Ministry of Health in Turkey recommends that it be performed once every five years after age 35. The purpose of this study was to determine the cervical cancer risk levels of women between 35 and 69, and the intervals they have the Pap smear test, and to investigate the relation between the two. This study was performed on 227 women aged between 35 and 69 living in Balçova District of İzmir province. Using the cervical cancer risk index program of Harvard School of Public Health, the cervical cancer risk level of 70% of the women was found below average, 22.1% average, and 7.9% above average. Only 52% of the women have had Pap smear test at least once in their lives. The percentage screening regularly in conformity with the national screening standard was 39.2%. Women in the 40-49 age group, were married, conformed significantly more (pducation and decreased with the cervical cancer risk level (pducation level, menstruation state of the women and the economic level of the family. Not having the Pap smear test in conformity with the national cervical cancer screening standard in 35-39 age group was 2.52 times more than 40-49 age group, while it was 3.26 times more in 60-69 age group (pducation level might cause not having Pap smear test. Under these circumstances, the cervical cancer risk levels should be determined and the individuals should be informed. Providing Pap smear test screening service to individuals in the target group of national screening standard, as a public service may resolve the inequalities due to age and educational differences.

Risk of Interest Rates at the Level of Commercial Banks in Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sbârcea Ioana Raluca

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The banking system in Romania is a banking system under development, subject to fluctuations that exist on the market more than on more developed banking systems, fluctuations that can generate losses for banks if they are not properly managed. The losses that may be generated by these fluctuations, known as market risk, refer to the significant fluctuations in three indicators, namely the interest rate, the exchange rate and the asset price. In this article, I will analyse the interest rate risk from a conceptual point of view and the indicators that mitigate this risk. The analysis also contains a study of this risk among commercial banks in the system to highlight the level of risk and possible effects of its manifestation. I calculated and analysed the interest rate risk indicators, individually for the first three banks in the system, but also to comparatively, in order to highlight the existing differences.

Exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation and lung cancer risk in Florida

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stockwell, H.G.; Lyman, G.H.; Waltz, J.

1986-01-01

The phosphate deposits of central Florida contain levels of uranium and its daughter products 30-60 times greater than average soils. A case-control study was conducted to assess the risk of lung cancer associated with living on these phosphateic soils. Using the records of the state-wide Florida Cancer Data System to address this issue, all cases of lung cancer among Florida residents in 1981 were identified (n = 7049). Information was obtained regarding residence, age, sex, race, and smoking habits. Controls consisted of 6643 individuals with cancers of the colon or rectum. Residents of the central Florida phosphate region experienced a significant increase in lung cancer risk compared to other Florida residents (odds ratio (OR) = 1.4). Excess risks appeared concentrated among squamous cell cancer (OR = 1.6) and small cell cancer (OR = 1.6). When smoking habits as well as residential area was considered, no significant excess risk, associated with residence, was observed among nonsmokers or light smokers. Area residents smoking a pack or more per day experienced a 70% increase in lung cancer risk compared to individuals smoking a similar amount but living elsewhere. Highest risks were observed among persons with squamous cell cancer (OR = 2.1) and small cell cancer (OR = 2.5) who smoked more than 40 cigarettes a day. Results suggest exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation increases the lung cancer risk of residents of this area

Responding to Sea Level Rise: Does Short-Term Risk Reduction Inhibit Successful Long-Term Adaptation?

Science.gov (United States)

Keeler, A. G.; McNamara, D. E.; Irish, J. L.

2018-04-01

Most existing coastal climate-adaptation planning processes, and the research supporting them, tightly focus on how to use land use planning, policy tools, and infrastructure spending to reduce risks from rising seas and changing storm conditions. While central to community response to sea level rise, we argue that the exclusive nature of this focus biases against and delays decisions to take more discontinuous, yet proactive, actions to adapt—for example, relocation and aggressive individual protection investments. Public policies should anticipate real estate market responses to risk reduction to avoid large costs—social and financial—when and if sea level rise and other climate-related factors elevate the risks to such high levels that discontinuous responses become the least bad alternative.

Perceptions of industrial and nuclear risks. Stakes, negotiations and social development of levels of risk acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernier, S.Ch.

2007-11-01

In this thesis we will question the perceptions of industrial risks in the occidental world at the beginning of the 21. century. For this purpose we will try to understand how concepts such as sustainable development, precautionary principle, liability, or even zero-risk bias have progressively developed around a thought model based on the scientific rationality. This model is now undermined by its incapacity to fully address the issues it raises and completely avoid the potential risks. However, despite consistent weaknesses, it remains a reference value moulded by past accidents which have led to the making of laws aiming mainly at defining liability and protecting those who are held liable. Thus, public information becomes a requirement for democracy and the protection of this thought model. In this context, the protagonists at stake are security-conscious, economical and political lobbies that constantly redefine the limits of risk acceptance. We come to the realization that our lifestyle and value system remain unchallenged even though undergoing a crisis. The specificity of this research lies into the importance we give to the local approach, dealing with registered Seveso sites and nuclear plants located in Indre et Loire. We have polled five categories of respondents through interviews or questionnaires in order to understand their opinion regarding situations involving technological risks. The result of this survey helps us understand and set the levels of risk acceptance that they define with regard to the industrial risks and show the complexity of a situation involving political stakes, environmental pressures, a profit-driven economy and security constraints, in a vague and complex context. This work gives us a contrasted picture of today's perceptions of risks. (author)

Association between risk of birth defects occurring level and arsenic concentrations in soils of Lvliang, Shanxi province of China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Jilei; Zhang, Chaosheng; Pei, Lijun; Chen, Gong; Zheng, Xiaoying

2014-01-01

The risk of birth defects is generally accredited with genetic factors, environmental causes, but the contribution of environmental factors to birth defects is still inconclusive. With the hypothesis of associations of geochemical features distribution and birth defects risk, we collected birth records and measured the chemical components in soil samples from a high prevalence area of birth defects in Shanxi province, China. The relative risk levels among villages were estimated with conditional spatial autoregressive model and the relationships between the risk levels of the villages and the 15 types of chemical elements concentration in the cropland and woodland soils were explored. The results revealed that the arsenic levels in cropland soil showed a significant association with birth defects occurring risk in this area, which is consistent with existing evidences of arsenic as a teratogen and warrants further investigation on arsenic exposure routine to birth defect occurring risk. - Highlights: • Association between soil geochemical components and birth defects risk was proposed. • The relative risk difference among villages were estimated with CAR model. • Arsenic levels in cropland showed a significant association to birth defect risk. • The finding warrants further investigation on arsenic as a teratogen. - The difference of risk levels estimate by spatial statistics to birth defect significantly associated with arsenic levels in cropland soils warrants further investigation

Differentiated influences of benefit and risk perceptions on nuclear power acceptance according to acceptance levels. Evidence from Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roh, Seungkook; Lee Jinwon

2017-01-01

The perceived benefit and risk of nuclear power generation have received considerable attention as determinants of the public's nuclear power acceptance. However, the contingency of the relative importance of these benefit and risk has been less explored. Using Korea as an example, this study explores the possibility that the relative importance of perceived benefit and risk on nuclear power acceptance depends on acceptance levels. Our results from latent class analysis and multinomial probit show that, in determining whether an individual shows a moderate level of nuclear power acceptance rather than a low level, perceived risk plays a dominant role compared to perceived benefit; however, regarding whether he/she shows a high level of nuclear power acceptance rather than a moderate level, this relative importance is reversed. These results carry practical implications for risk governance of nuclear power, particularly with regard to communication with the public. (author)

Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

1992-01-01

A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

Dependency of maximum goitrogenic response on some minimal level of thyroid hormone production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

March, B.E.; Poon, R.

1981-01-01

Thyroidal activity was studied in chicks given dietary thiouracil in conjunction with daily doses of thyroxine and with diets adequate and deficient in iodine. DL-thyroxine administered at doses up to 1.0 microgram per day for 10 to 12 days had no effect or slightly increased thyroid weight. Both the epithelial and colloid components of the thyroid gland were increased in response to thiouracil and to thiouracil in combination with low dosages of exogenous thyroxine. Radioiodine uptake was increased above the control with thiouracil and with thiouracil in conjunction with .5 and 1.0 microgram DL-thyroxine given daily. Birds receiving thiouracil, with and without exogenous thyroxine, showed a different pattern of radioiodine uptake and release than the control birds. Thiouracil-treated birds showed a rapid uptake of iodine following its administration, which was followed by a rapid decline immediately after peak accumulation, whereas in control birds thyroidal radioiodine concentration reached a plateau at the maximum concentration attained. The goitrogenic response to thiouracil was much greater when the diet was supplemented with iodine than when the diet was iodine-deficient. Thyroids under iodine deficiency contained greater percentages of epithelial tissue than with iodine-supplemented diets. Thyroid glands of chicks given thiouracil in an iodine-supplemented diet contained much more colloid than glands from iodine-deficient chicks with or without thiouracil. DL-thyroxine at a dosage of .5 microgram per day to chicks given thiouracil in an iodine-adequate diet increased, whereas higher dosages decreased thyroidal colloid. It is concluded that some minimal concentration of thyroid hormone is required for maximum goitrogenic response. It is not clear whether the response is entirely due to an effect on thyrotropin production or whether there is an effect of thyroid hormone on the thyroid gland itself

Explaining the level of credit spreads: Option-implied jump risk premia in a firm value model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cremers, K.J.M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.

2008-01-01

We study whether option-implied jump risk premia can explain the high observed level of credit spreads. We use a structural jump-diffusion firm value model to assess the level of credit spreads generated by option-implied jump risk premia. Prices and returns of equity index and individual options

Correlation of plasma B-type natriuretic peptide levels with metabolic risk markers.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahued-Ortega, José Armando; León-García, Plácido Enrique; Hernández-Pérez, Elizabeth

2018-04-17

Natriuretic peptide type B (BNP) is a marker of myocardium injury. This peptide has been associated with metabolic risk markers, although controversy exists in this regard. The aim of the present study was to determine the correlation of plasma BNP levels with metabolic risk parameters. A retrospective, observational study that included 152 patients, who were classified according to their clinical diagnosis as patients with metabolic syndrome. Plasma BNP levels and clinical metabolic parameters were assessed by using Spearmańs rank correlation coefficient. A significant inverse association with weight (r=-.408; p<.0001) and BMI (r=-.443; p<.001) was obtained. While a positive significant association with systolic pressure (r=.324; p<.001) was observed. A significant decrease was found in BNP levels and components of metabolic syndrome. (p<.05). Based on the results from this study, we can conclude that BNP determination could be an adequate metabolic marker. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Ping

2005-01-01

from various Danish longitudinal registers. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: This study confirms that people living in more urbanized areas are at a higher risk of suicide than their counterparts in less urbanized areas. However, this excess risk is largely eliminated...... when adjusted for personal marital, income, and ethnic differences; it is even reversed when further adjusted for psychiatric status. Moreover, the impact of urbanicity on suicide risk differs significantly by sex and across age. Urban living reduces suicide risk significantly among men, especially......BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

Studying borrower level risk characteristics of education loan in India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arindam Bandyopadhyay

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the granular level risk of education loan using a cross section of data from 5000 borrowers obtained from four major public sector banks in India. The findings suggest that education loan defaults are mainly influenced by security, borrower margin, and repayment periods. The presence of guarantor or co-borrower and collateral significantly reduce default loss rates. The socioeconomic characteristics of borrowers and their regional locations also act as important factors associated with education loan defaults. The results suggest that by segmenting borrowers by probability of default and loss given default in a multidimensional scale, banks can adopt better risk mitigation and pricing strategies to resolve borrower problems.

Provision of financial transmission rights including assessment of maximum volumes of obligations and options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristiansen, Tarjei

2007-01-01

This paper studies the risks faced by the providers of financial transmission rights (FTRs). The introduction of FTRs in different systems in the USA must be viewed in relationship to the organization of the market. Often, private players own the central grid, while an independent system operator (ISO) operates the grid. The revenues from transmission congestion collected in the day-ahead and balancing markets should give the ISO sufficient revenues to cover the costs associated with providing FTRs. This can be ensured if the issued FTRs fulfill the simultaneous feasibility test described by Hogan. This test on a three-node network is studied under different assumptions to find the maximum volumes, which can be sold, including contingency constraints. Next the feasibility test is analyzed when taking into account the proceeds from the FTR auction, and demonstrates that a higher volume might be issued. We introduce uncertainty under different scenarios for locational prices and calculate the maximum provided volumes. As a tool for risk management, the provider of the FTRs can use the Value at Risk approach. Finally, the provision of FTRs by private parties is discussed. (author)

Childhood leukaemia and low-level radiation - are we underestimating the risk?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wakeford, R.

1996-01-01

The Seascale childhood leukaemia 'cluster' can be interpreted as indicating that the risk of childhood leukaemia arising from low-level exposure to ionising radiation has been underestimated. Indeed, several variants of such an interpretation have been advanced. These include exposure to particular radionuclides, an underestimation of the radiation risk coefficient for childhood leukaemia, and the existence of a previously unrecognized risk of childhood leukaemia from the preconceptional irradiation of fathers. However, the scientific assessment of epidemiological associations is a complex matter, and such associations must be interpreted with caution. It would now seem most likely that the Seascale 'cluster' does not represent an unanticipated effect of the exposure to ionising radiation, but rather the effect of unusual population mixing generated by the Sellafield site which has produced an increase in the infection-based risk of childhood leukaemia. This episode in the history of epidemiological research provides a timely reminder of the need for great care in the interpretation-of novel statistical associations. (author)

Cost effective radiation risk management in a generic nuclear plant design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maan, M.A.

1982-11-01

To determine whether any further dose reduction measures are justified, a method appropriate for cost effective radiation risk management has been developed. This new method is based on the radiation detriment optimization measures advocated in the revised (1977) ALARA concept. The methodology includes the determination of available alternatives, and the determination of the variable monetary ceiling on expenditures to reduce the radiological detriment (both occupational and public). The method used to determine the maximum justifiable expenditure for additional reduction of detriment takes into account the economic and social climate, administrative/legal exposure limits, and the actual magnitude of risk. All these factors may vary from country to country. The variable monetary ceiling, sensitive to an actual level of risk, provides a handy measure allowing designers to make a decision whether or not the modification of design is necessary and/or cost effective. This will ensure rationally and consistently that the utilities and their customers (public) get maximum benefit for their safety dollars

Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

David Cabedo, J.; Moya, Ismael

2003-01-01

In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach, developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification

Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cabedo, J.D.; Moya, I.

2003-01-01

In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach. developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification. (author)

Hematocrit levels as cardiovascular risk among taxi drivers in Bangkok, Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

ISHIMARU, Tomohiro; ARPHORN, Sara; JIRAPONGSUWAN, Ann

2016-01-01

In Thailand, taxi drivers employed in the informal sector often experience hazardous working conditions. Previous studies revealed that elevated Hematocrit (HCT) is a predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study assessed factors associated with HCT in taxi drivers to predict their occupational CVD risk factors. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 298 male taxi drivers who joined a health check-up campaign in Bangkok, Thailand. HCT and body mass index were retrieved from participant health check-up files. Self-administered questionnaires assessed demographics, driving mileage, working hours, and lifestyle. Statistical associations were analyzed using stepwise linear regression. Our results showed that obesity (p=0.007), daily alcohol drinking (p=0.003), and current or past smoking (p=0.016) were associated with higher HCT levels. While working hours were not directly associated with HCT levels in the current study, the effect on overworking is statistically arguable because most participants worked substantially longer hours. Our findings suggest that taxi drivers’ CVD risk may be increased by their unhealthy work styles. Initiatives to improve general working conditions for taxi drivers should take into account health promotion and CVD prevention. The policy of providing periodic health check-ups is important to make workers in the informal sector aware of their health status. PMID:27151439

The Association between the Lipids Levels in Blood and Risk of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yafeng Wang

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Lipid metabolism may be involved in the pathogenic mechanism of age-related macular degeneration (AMD. However, conflicting results have been reported in the associations of AMD with blood lipids. We performed a meta-analysis including a total of 19 studies to evaluate associations between blood lipids and this disease. The result reported that the high level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C obtained with an increment of 1 mmol/L could result in a significantly increase in the AMD risk of approximately 18% (relative risk (RR, 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.01 to 1.35; I2 = 53.8%; p = 0.007. High levels of total cholesterol (TC, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, and triglycerides (TG were significantly associated with a decreased risk of AMD (RRs ranging from 0.92 to 0.95; all p < 0.05. The stratified analysis based on AMD subtypes showed that these blood lipids were only significantly associated with the risk of early AMD (all p < 0.05. The association between the blood lipids and AMD risk did not differ substantially based on the other characteristics of the participants. A high HDL-C level was associated with an increased AMD risk, whereas participants with high TC, LDL-C, and TG concentrations may show a decreased risk for this disease. Further well-designed large studies are warranted to confirm the conclusions.

Simulation to aid in interpreting biological relevance and setting of population-level protection goals for risk assessment of pesticides.

Science.gov (United States)

Topping, Christopher John; Luttik, Robert

2017-10-01

Specific protection goals (SPGs) comprise an explicit expression of the environmental components that need protection and the maximum impacts that can be tolerated. SPGs are set by risk managers and are typically based on protecting populations or functions. However, the measurable endpoints available to risk managers, at least for vertebrates, are typically laboratory tests. We demonstrate, using the example of eggshell thinning in skylarks, how simulation can be used to place laboratory endpoints in context of population-level effects as an aid to setting the SPGs. We develop explanatory scenarios investigating the impact of different assumptions of eggshell thinning on skylark population size, density and distribution in 10 Danish landscapes, chosen to represent the range of typical Danish agricultural conditions. Landscape and timing of application of the pesticide were found to be the most critical factors to consider in the impact assessment. Consequently, a regulatory scenario of monoculture spring barley with an early spray treatment eliciting the eggshell thinning effect was applied using concentrations eliciting effects of zero to 100% in steps of 5%. Setting the SPGs requires balancing scientific, social and political realities. However, the provision of clear and detailed options such as those from comprehensive simulation results can inform the decision process by improving transparency and by putting the more abstract testing data into the context of real-world impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Maximum credible accident analysis for TR-2 reactor conceptual design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manopulo, E.

1981-01-01

A new reactor, TR-2, of 5 MW, designed in cooperation with CEN/GRENOBLE is under construction in the open pool of TR-1 reactor of 1 MW set up by AMF atomics at the Cekmece Nuclear Research and Training Center. In this report the fission product inventory and doses released after the maximum credible accident have been studied. The diffusion of the gaseous fission products to the environment and the potential radiation risks to the population have been evaluated

Estimating the maximum potential revenue for grid connected electricity storage :

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Byrne, Raymond Harry; Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto.

2012-12-01

The valuation of an electricity storage device is based on the expected future cash flow generated by the device. Two potential sources of income for an electricity storage system are energy arbitrage and participation in the frequency regulation market. Energy arbitrage refers to purchasing (stor- ing) energy when electricity prices are low, and selling (discharging) energy when electricity prices are high. Frequency regulation is an ancillary service geared towards maintaining system frequency, and is typically procured by the independent system operator in some type of market. This paper outlines the calculations required to estimate the maximum potential revenue from participating in these two activities. First, a mathematical model is presented for the state of charge as a function of the storage device parameters and the quantities of electricity purchased/sold as well as the quantities o ered into the regulation market. Using this mathematical model, we present a linear programming optimization approach to calculating the maximum potential revenue from an elec- tricity storage device. The calculation of the maximum potential revenue is critical in developing an upper bound on the value of storage, as a benchmark for evaluating potential trading strate- gies, and a tool for capital nance risk assessment. Then, we use historical California Independent System Operator (CAISO) data from 2010-2011 to evaluate the maximum potential revenue from the Tehachapi wind energy storage project, an American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) energy storage demonstration project. We investigate the maximum potential revenue from two di erent scenarios: arbitrage only and arbitrage combined with the regulation market. Our analysis shows that participation in the regulation market produces four times the revenue compared to arbitrage in the CAISO market using 2010 and 2011 data. Then we evaluate several trading strategies to illustrate how they compare to the

Heavy metals in apple orchard soils and fruits and their health risks in Liaodong Peninsula, Northeast China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Quanying; Liu, Jingshuang; Cheng, Shuai

2015-01-01

This study aimed to assess the heavy metal concentrations in soils and fruits and their possible human health risk in apple orchards of Liaodong Peninsula-a well-known fruit-producing area of China. The soil pollution index (PI) and health risk assessment methods (daily intake of metals (DIM) and health risk index (HRI)) were employed to explore the soil pollution levels and the potential health hazards of heavy metals in fruits. The results showed that all orchard soils were with low PI values (PI ≤1) for Cd and Zn, while 2.78 and 5.56% of the soil samples exceeded the allowable levels of Cr and Cu for orchard soil, respectively. The Cd, Cu, and Zn concentrations for the apple flesh samples were all lower than the national maximum permissible concentrations. While 6.34% of apple peel samples for Cd, 76.5% of apple peel samples and 65.6% of apple flesh samples for Cr, and 28.1% of apple peel samples for Zn exceeded the national maximum permissible levels, respectively. Furthermore, both the DIM and the HRI values for all the apple flesh samples were within the safe limits, indicating that no health risk was found for heavy metals in the fruits of the study area. In order to protect the consumers from fruits that might cause health risks, results from this study suggested that the regular survey of heavy metal pollution levels should be conducted for the orchards of Liaodong Peninsula.

12 CFR 652.80 - When you must determine the risk-based capital level.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... your risk-based capital level at any time. (c) If you anticipate entering into any new business... level, which must include the new business activity, and report this pro forma determination to the Director, Office of Secondary Market Oversight, at least 10-business days prior to implementation of the...

Sex hormone-binding globulin levels predict insulin sensitivity, disposition index, and cardiovascular risk during puberty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Kaspar; Aksglaede, Lise; Munch-Andersen, Thor

2009-01-01

Early puberty is associated with increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease. Low sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) levels are a feature of early puberty and of conditions associated with increased cardiovascular risk. The aim of the present study was to evaluate SHBG as a predictor...... of glucose metabolism and metabolic risk during puberty....

Maximum concentrations at work and maximum biologically tolerable concentration for working materials 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

The meaning of the term 'maximum concentration at work' in regard of various pollutants is discussed. Specifically, a number of dusts and smokes are dealt with. The valuation criteria for maximum biologically tolerable concentrations for working materials are indicated. The working materials in question are corcinogeneous substances or substances liable to cause allergies or mutate the genome. (VT) [de

Perspectives of decision-making and estimation of risk in populations exposed to low levels of ionizing radiations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1979-01-01

The setting of any permissible radiation level or guide remains essentially an arbitrary procedure. Based on the radiation risk estimates derived, any lack of precision does not minimize either the need for setting public health policies nor the conclusion that such risks are extremely small when compared with those avialable of alternative options, and those normally accepted by society as the hazards of everyday life. When compared with the benefits that society has established as goals derived from the necessary activities of medical care and energy production, it is apparent that society must establish appropriate standards and seek appropriate controlling procedures which continue to assure that its needs are being met with the lowest possible risks. This implies continuing decision-making processes in which risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness assessments must be taken into account. Much of the practical information necessary for determination of radiation protection standards for public health policy is still lacking. It is now assumed that any exposure to radiaion at low levels of dose carries some risk of deleterious effects. However, how low this level may be, or the probability, or magnitude of the risk, still are not known. Radiation and the public health becomes a societal and political problem and not solely a scientific one. Our best scientific knowledge and our best scientific advice are essential for the protection of the public health, for the effective application of new technologies in medicine, and for guidance in the production of energy in industry. Unless man wishes to dispense with those activities which inevitably involve exposure to low levels of ionizing radiations, he must recognize that some degree of risk, however small, exists. In the evaluation of such risks from radiation, it is necessary to limit the radiation exposure to a level at which the risk is acceptable both to the individual and to society.

Perspectives of decision-making and estimation of risk in populations exposed to low levels of ionizing radiations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1979-01-01

The setting of any permissible radiation level or guide remains essentially an arbitrary procedure. Based on the radiation risk estimates derived, any lack of precision does not minimize either the need for setting public health policies nor the conclusion that such risks are extremely small when compared with those avialable of alternative options, and those normally accepted by society as the hazards of everyday life. When compared with the benefits that society has established as goals derived from the necessary activities of medical care and energy production, it is apparent that society must establish appropriate standards and seek appropriate controlling procedures which continue to assure that its needs are being met with the lowest possible risks. This implies continuing decision-making processes in which risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness assessments must be taken into account. Much of the practical information necessary for determination of radiation protection standards for public health policy is still lacking. It is now assumed that any exposure to radiaion at low levels of dose carries some risk of deleterious effects. However, how low this level may be, or the probability, or magnitude of the risk, still are not known. Radiation and the public health becomes a societal and political problem and not solely a scientific one. Our best scientific knowledge and our best scientific advice are essential for the protection of the public health, for the effective application of new technologies in medicine, and for guidance in the production of energy in industry. Unless man wishes to dispense with those activities which inevitably involve exposure to low levels of ionizing radiations, he must recognize that some degree of risk, however small, exists. In the evaluation of such risks from radiation, it is necessary to limit the radiation exposure to a level at which the risk is acceptable both to the individual and to society

Multi-level risk factors for suicidal ideation among at-risk adolescent females : The role of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis responses to stress

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Giletta, M.; Calhoun, C.D.; Hastings, P.D.; Rudolph, K.D.; Nock, M.K.; Prinstein, M.J.

2015-01-01

Adopting a multi-level approach, this study examined risk factors for adolescent suicidal ideation, with specific attention to (a) hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis stress responses and (b) the interplay between HPA-axis and other risk factors from multiple domains (i.e., psychological,

A source term and risk calculations using level 2+PSA methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, S. I.; Jea, M. S.; Jeon, K. D.

2002-01-01

The scope of Level 2+ PSA includes the assessment of dose risk which is associated with the exposures of the radioactive nuclides escaping from nuclear power plants during severe accidents. The establishment of data base for the exposure dose in Korea nuclear power plants may contribute to preparing the accident management programs and periodic safety reviews. In this study the ORIGEN, MELCOR and MACCS code were employed to produce a integrated framework to assess the radiation source term risk. The framework was applied to a reference plant. Using IPE results, the dose rate for the reference plant was calculated quantitatively

40 CFR 1042.140 - Maximum engine power, displacement, power density, and maximum in-use engine speed.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... cylinders having an internal diameter of 13.0 cm and a 15.5 cm stroke length, the rounded displacement would... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Maximum engine power, displacement... Maximum engine power, displacement, power density, and maximum in-use engine speed. This section describes...

PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION BASED OF THE MAXIMUM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER TRACTIOQG UNDER DIFFERENT CONDITIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Labbi

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Photovoltaic electricity is seen as an important source of renewable energy. The photovoltaic array is an unstable source of power since the peak power point depends on the temperature and the irradiation level. A maximum peak power point tracking is then necessary for maximum efficiency.In this work, a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO is proposed for maximum power point tracker for photovoltaic panel, are used to generate the optimal MPP, such that solar panel maximum power is generated under different operating conditions. A photovoltaic system including a solar panel and PSO MPP tracker is modelled and simulated, it has been has been carried out which has shown the effectiveness of PSO to draw much energy and fast response against change in working conditions.

Exposure monitoring and risk assessment of biphenyl in the workplace.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyeon-Yeong; Shin, Sae-Mi; Ham, Miran; Lim, Cheol-Hong; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

2015-05-13

This study was performed to assess exposure to and the risk caused by biphenyl in the workplace. Biphenyl is widely used as a heat transfer medium and as an emulsifier and polish in industry. Vapor or high levels of dust inhalation and dermal exposure to biphenyl can cause eye inflammation, irritation of respiratory organs, and permanent lesions in the liver and nervous system. In this study, the workplace environment concentrations were assessed as central tendency exposure and reasonable maximum exposure and were shown to be 0.03 and 0.12 mg/m³, respectively. In addition, the carcinogenic risk of biphenyl as determined by risk assessment was 0.14 × 10⁻⁴ (central tendency exposure) and 0.56 × 10⁻⁴ (reasonable maximum exposure), which is below the acceptable risk value of 1.0 × 10⁻⁴. Furthermore, the central tendency exposure and reasonable maximum exposure hazard quotients were 0.01 and 0.06 for oral toxicity, 0.05 and 0.23 for inhalation toxicity, and 0.08 and 0.39 for reproduction toxicity, respectively, which are all lower than the acceptable hazard quotient of 1.0. Therefore, exposure to biphenyl was found to be safe in current workplace environments. Because occupational exposure limits are based on socioeconomic assessment, they are generally higher than true values seen in toxicity experiments. Based on the results of exposure monitoring of biphenyl, the current occupational exposure limits in Korea could be reviewed.

Exposure Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Biphenyl in the Workplace

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyeon-Yeong Kim

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This study was performed to assess exposure to and the risk caused by biphenyl in the workplace. Biphenyl is widely used as a heat transfer medium and as an emulsifier and polish in industry. Vapor or high levels of dust inhalation and dermal exposure to biphenyl can cause eye inflammation, irritation of respiratory organs, and permanent lesions in the liver and nervous system. In this study, the workplace environment concentrations were assessed as central tendency exposure and reasonable maximum exposure and were shown to be 0.03 and 0.12 mg/m3, respectively. In addition, the carcinogenic risk of biphenyl as determined by risk assessment was 0.14 × 10−4 (central tendency exposure and 0.56 × 10−4 (reasonable maximum exposure, which is below the acceptable risk value of 1.0 × 10−4. Furthermore, the central tendency exposure and reasonable maximum exposure hazard quotients were 0.01 and 0.06 for oral toxicity, 0.05 and 0.23 for inhalation toxicity, and 0.08 and 0.39 for reproduction toxicity, respectively, which are all lower than the acceptable hazard quotient of 1.0. Therefore, exposure to biphenyl was found to be safe in current workplace environments. Because occupational exposure limits are based on socioeconomic assessment, they are generally higher than true values seen in toxicity experiments. Based on the results of exposure monitoring of biphenyl, the current occupational exposure limits in Korea could be reviewed.

Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

2018-05-01

This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

Credal Networks under Maximum Entropy

OpenAIRE

Lukasiewicz, Thomas

2013-01-01

We apply the principle of maximum entropy to select a unique joint probability distribution from the set of all joint probability distributions specified by a credal network. In detail, we start by showing that the unique joint distribution of a Bayesian tree coincides with the maximum entropy model of its conditional distributions. This result, however, does not hold anymore for general Bayesian networks. We thus present a new kind of maximum entropy models, which are computed sequentially. ...

Biological bases of the maximum permissible exposure levels of the UK laser standard BS 4803: 1983

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKinlay, A.F.; Harlen, F.

1983-10-01

The use of lasers has increased greatly over the past 15 years or so, to the extent that they are now used routinely in many occupational and public situations. There has been an increasing awareness of the potential hazards presented by lasers and substantial efforts have been made to formulate safety standards. In the UK the relevant Safety Standard is the British Standards Institution Standard BS 4803. This Standard was originally published in 1972 and a revision has recently been published (BS 4803: 1983). The revised standard has been developed using the American National Standards Institute Standard, ANSI Z136.1 (1973 onwards), as a model. In other countries, national standards have been similarly formulated, resulting in a large measure of international agreement through participation in the work of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). The bases of laser safety standards are biophysical data on threshold injury effects, particularly on the retina, and the development of theoretical models of damage mechanisms. This report deals in some detail with the mechanisms of injury from over exposure to optical radiations, in particular with the dependency of the type and degree of damage on wavelength, image size and pulse duration. The maximum permissible exposure levels recommended in BS 4803: 1983 are compared with published data for damage thresholds and the adequacy of the standard is discussed. (author)

Risk assessment and reliability for low level radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregory, P.O.; Jones, G.A.

1986-01-01

The reliability of critical design features at low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities is a major concern in the licensing of these structures. To date, no systematic methodology has been adopted to evaluate the geotechnical reliability of Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) disposal facilities currently being designed and/or constructed. This paper discusses and critiques the deterministic methods currently used to evaluate UMTRA reliability. Because deterministic methods may not be applicable in some cases because of the unusually long design life of UMTRA facilities, it is proposed that a probabilistic risk assessment-based methodology be used as a secondary method to aid in the evaluating of geotechnical reliability of critical items. Similar methodologies have proven successful in evaluating the reliability of a variety of conventional earth structures. In this paper, an ''acceptable'' level of risk for UMTRA facilities is developed, an evaluation method is presented, and two example applications of the proposed methodology are provided for a generic UMTRA disposal facility. The proposed technique is shown to be a simple method which might be used to aid in reliability evaluations on a selective basis. Finally, other possible applications and the limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed

Impact of Urate Level on Cardiovascular Risk in Allopurinol Treated Patients. A Nested Case-Control Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søltoft Larsen, Kasper; Pottegård, Anton; Lindegaard, Hanne M

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Gout gives rise to increased risk of cardiovascular events. Gout attacks can be effectively prevented with urate lowering drugs, and allopurinol potentially reduces cardiovascular risk. What target level of urate is required to reduce cardiovascular risk is not known. OBJECTIVES...

Effect of plasma homocysteine level and urinary monomethylarsonic acid on the risk of arsenic-associated carotid atherosclerosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, M.-M.; Chiou, H.-Y.; Hsueh, Y.-M.; Hong, C.-T.; Su, C.-L.; Chang, S.-F.; Huang, W.-L.; Wang, H.-T.; Wang, Y.-H.; Hsieh, Y.-C.; Chen, C.-J.

2006-01-01

Arsenic-contaminated well water has been shown to increase the risk of atherosclerosis. Because of involving S-adenosylmethionine, homocysteine may modify the risk by interfering with the biomethylation of ingested arsenic. In this study, we assessed the effect of plasma homocysteine level and urinary monomethylarsonic acid (MMA V ) on the risk of atherosclerosis associated with arsenic. In total, 163 patients with carotid atherosclerosis and 163 controls were studied. Lifetime cumulative arsenic exposure from well water for study subjects was measured as index of arsenic exposure. Homocysteine level was determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Proportion of MMA V (MMA%) was calculated by dividing with total arsenic species in urine, including arsenite, arsenate, MMA V , and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA V ). Results of multiple linear regression analysis show a positive correlation of plasma homocysteine levels to the cumulative arsenic exposure after controlling for atherosclerosis status and nutritional factors (P < 0.05). This correlation, however, did not change substantially the effect of arsenic exposure on the risk of atherosclerosis as analyzed in a subsequent logistic regression model. Logistic regression analyses also show that elevated plasma homocysteine levels did not confer an independent risk for developing atherosclerosis in the study population. However, the risk of having atherosclerosis was increased to 5.4-fold (95% CI, 2.0-15.0) for the study subjects with high MMA% (≥16.5%) and high homocysteine levels (≥12.7 μmol/l) as compared to those with low MMA% (<9.9%) and low homocysteine levels (<12.7 μmol/l). Elevated homocysteinemia may exacerbate the formation of atherosclerosis related to arsenic exposure in individuals with high levels of MMA% in urine

Estimation of Maximum Allowable PV Connection to LV Residential Power Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Demirok, Erhan; Sera, Dezso; Teodorescu, Remus

2011-01-01

Maximum photovoltaic (PV) hosting capacity of low voltage (LV) power networks is mainly restricted by either thermal limits of network components or grid voltage quality resulted from high penetration of distributed PV systems. This maximum hosting capacity may be lower than the available solar...... potential of geographic area due to power network limitations even though all rooftops are fully occupied with PV modules. Therefore, it becomes more of an issue to know what exactly limits higher PV penetration level and which solutions should be engaged efficiently such as over sizing distribution...

Maximum Entropy in Drug Discovery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chih-Yuan Tseng

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Drug discovery applies multidisciplinary approaches either experimentally, computationally or both ways to identify lead compounds to treat various diseases. While conventional approaches have yielded many US Food and Drug Administration (FDA-approved drugs, researchers continue investigating and designing better approaches to increase the success rate in the discovery process. In this article, we provide an overview of the current strategies and point out where and how the method of maximum entropy has been introduced in this area. The maximum entropy principle has its root in thermodynamics, yet since Jaynes’ pioneering work in the 1950s, the maximum entropy principle has not only been used as a physics law, but also as a reasoning tool that allows us to process information in hand with the least bias. Its applicability in various disciplines has been abundantly demonstrated. We give several examples of applications of maximum entropy in different stages of drug discovery. Finally, we discuss a promising new direction in drug discovery that is likely to hinge on the ways of utilizing maximum entropy.

Genetically elevated apolipoprotein A-I, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, and risk of ischemic heart disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundegaard, Christiane; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Grande, Peer

2010-01-01

Epidemiologically, levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and its major protein constituent, apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I), are inversely related to risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD).......Epidemiologically, levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and its major protein constituent, apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I), are inversely related to risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD)....

Psychophysical basis for maximum pushing and pulling forces: A review and recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Garg, Arun; Waters, Thomas; Kapellusch, Jay; Karwowski, Waldemar

2014-03-01

The objective of this paper was to perform a comprehensive review of psychophysically determined maximum acceptable pushing and pulling forces. Factors affecting pushing and pulling forces are identified and discussed. Recent studies show a significant decrease (compared to previous studies) in maximum acceptable forces for males but not for females when pushing and pulling on a treadmill. A comparison of pushing and pulling forces measured using a high inertia cart with those measured on a treadmill shows that the pushing and pulling forces using high inertia cart are higher for males but are about the same for females. It is concluded that the recommendations of Snook and Ciriello (1991) for pushing and pulling forces are still valid and provide reasonable recommendations for ergonomics practitioners. Regression equations as a function of handle height, frequency of exertion and pushing/pulling distance are provided to estimate maximum initial and sustained forces for pushing and pulling acceptable to 75% male and female workers. At present it is not clear whether pushing or pulling should be favored. Similarly, it is not clear what handle heights would be optimal for pushing and pulling. Epidemiological studies are needed to determine relationships between psychophysically determined maximum acceptable pushing and pulling forces and risk of musculoskeletal injuries, in particular to low back and shoulders.

New "Risk-Targeted" Seismic Maps Introduced into Building Codes

Science.gov (United States)

Luco, Nicholas; Garrett, B.; Hayes, J.

2012-01-01

Throughout most municipalities of the United States, structural engineers design new buildings using the U.S.-focused International Building Code (IBC). Updated editions of the IBC are published every 3 years. The latest edition (2012) contains new "risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake" (MCER) ground motion maps, which are enabling engineers to incorporate a more consistent and better defined level of seismic safety into their building designs.

Maximum Quantum Entropy Method

OpenAIRE

Sim, Jae-Hoon; Han, Myung Joon

2018-01-01

Maximum entropy method for analytic continuation is extended by introducing quantum relative entropy. This new method is formulated in terms of matrix-valued functions and therefore invariant under arbitrary unitary transformation of input matrix. As a result, the continuation of off-diagonal elements becomes straightforward. Without introducing any further ambiguity, the Bayesian probabilistic interpretation is maintained just as in the conventional maximum entropy method. The applications o...

Maximum-likelihood fitting of data dominated by Poisson statistical uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoneking, M.R.; Den Hartog, D.J.

1996-06-01

The fitting of data by χ 2 -minimization is valid only when the uncertainties in the data are normally distributed. When analyzing spectroscopic or particle counting data at very low signal level (e.g., a Thomson scattering diagnostic), the uncertainties are distributed with a Poisson distribution. The authors have developed a maximum-likelihood method for fitting data that correctly treats the Poisson statistical character of the uncertainties. This method maximizes the total probability that the observed data are drawn from the assumed fit function using the Poisson probability function to determine the probability for each data point. The algorithm also returns uncertainty estimates for the fit parameters. They compare this method with a χ 2 -minimization routine applied to both simulated and real data. Differences in the returned fits are greater at low signal level (less than ∼20 counts per measurement). the maximum-likelihood method is found to be more accurate and robust, returning a narrower distribution of values for the fit parameters with fewer outliers

Circulating irisin levels are positively associated with metabolic risk factors in sedentary subjects.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Moreno

Full Text Available A physically active life-style plays an independent role in the protection against type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Irisin, a novel exercise-induced myokine, activates thermogenesis in rodents through increasing beige fat cells abundance within white fat. We aimed to investigate circulating irisin levels in association with the degree of physical activity and various metabolic parameters in humans.Circulating irisin levels (ELISA and metabolic parameters were analyzed in 428 subjects (195 men/233 women. Participants were classified according to their self-reported physical activity and to their area of residence.Circulating irisin levels were higher in active than in sedentary subjects (p = 0.006. Rural inhabitants showed higher circulating irisin levels than urban subjects (p < 0.0001. The increase in irisin levels related to an active lifestyle was only observed in rural citizens (p = 0.014. Among sedentary participants, irisin levels were positively associated with metabolic risk factors (BMI, fasting insulin, HOMA and fasting triglycerides. The area of residence (β = - 0.592, p = < 0.0001 contributed independently to circulating irisin levels variance after controlling for age, gender, BMI, HOMAIR, triglycerides and physical activity.In sedentary participants, circulating irisin levels were positively associated with parameters related to an increased cardiometabolic risk. The present study confirmed that an active lifestyle increases circulating irisin levels, but only among subjects living in a rural environment. Area of residence might be a determinant of irisin levels.

Analysis and computer program for rupture-risk prediction of abdominal aortic aneurysms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Zhonghua

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs are the 13th leading cause of death in the United States. While AAA rupture may occur without significant warning, its risk assessment is generally based on critical values of the maximum AAA diameter (>5 cm and AAA-growth rate (>0.5 cm/year. These criteria may be insufficient for reliable AAA-rupture risk assessment especially when predicting possible rupture of smaller AAAs. Methods Based on clinical evidence, eight biomechanical factors with associated weighting coefficients were determined and summed up in terms of a dimensionless, time-dependent severity parameter, SP(t. The most important factor is the maximum wall stress for which a semi-empirical correlation has been developed. Results The patient-specific SP(t indicates the risk level of AAA rupture and provides a threshold value when surgical intervention becomes necessary. The severity parameter was validated with four clinical cases and its application is demonstrated for two AAA cases. Conclusion As part of computational AAA-risk assessment and medical management, a patient-specific severity parameter 0

An evaluation of the exemption level for the radiation protection regulation based on the social risk acceptance in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, Ki Don

1998-02-01

Radiation protection is based not only on the science but also on the political, social, economical and emotional factors, so a policy decision for a factor like the exemption level in this field must be considered social expectation and valuation as well as scientific evaluation. In this paper, an attempt was made to get a rationale on the exemption level, which has a significant meaning in radiation protection, by means of surveying the social risk acceptance in Korea. Risk perception data were collected by mail surveys to the respondents randomly selected in the city of Seoul. A poor response rate, 156 out of 400, was observed. The result showed that the majority of the respondents agreed upon setting a de mini mis level of risk and the favoured de mini mis level appeared to be in the range of 10 -6 yr -1 to 10 -7 yr -1 , which is consistent with the level suggested by other organizations: ICRP, EPA and NRPB. Approximately the same risk level, unfortunately, was obtained for the risk limits against a harmful agent, which makes no sense. It can be attributed to mis-communication due to the questionnaires inadequately designed. The acceptable risk level for a single practice was selected to be 1/100 or less of the risk limits, which seemed overly conservative, but could be understood in the light of the public attitude of outrage. There seems to be tendency that the public recognize the risk significant if it is not de mini mis. This study should not be regarded as one giving a satisfactory conclusion but a preliminary attempt to evaluate the acceptable risk level. More endeavors in design of questionnaires are needed to communicate successfully with the members of the public

Adolescent obesity as a risk factor for high-level nicotine addiction in young women.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussaini, Aliya Esmail; Nicholson, Lisa Marie; Shera, David; Stettler, Nicolas; Kinsman, Sara

2011-11-01

Obesity and cigarette smoking are two of the most frequent and preventable causes of disease and death in the United States; both are often established during youth. We hypothesized that obese, adolescent girls would be at higher risk for nicotine addiction in young adulthood, and that particular individual and social factors would mediate this association. Students surveyed in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), a nationally representative school-based and in-home survey conducted in three waves, comprised the sample. More than 4,000 respondents were used for the multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses used to determine the association between obesity and level of nicotine addiction. Potential mediation effects of the association were also examined. Obesity doubled the risk of the highest level of nicotine addiction after controlling for demographic factors, parent and friend smoking, and baseline smoking (OR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.22-3.68). Family smoking was the strongest predictor of nicotine addiction (OR, 4.72; 95% CI, 2.89-7.72). Grade point average was a partial mediator of this relationship (OR, .48; 95% CI, .32-.74). Obese, adolescent females are at increased risk for high-level nicotine addiction in young adulthood as compared with their nonobese peers. Grade point average partially mediates the association, and may represent a confluence of factors including increased absenteeism, social marginalization, biases, and lack of confidence in academic ability. Obese, adolescent females may require targeted interventions to address their risk of subsequent high-level nicotine addiction, especially if risk factors such as parental smoking and poor school performance are present. Copyright © 2011 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weighted Maximum-Clique Transversal Sets of Graphs

OpenAIRE

Chuan-Min Lee

2011-01-01

A maximum-clique transversal set of a graph G is a subset of vertices intersecting all maximum cliques of G. The maximum-clique transversal set problem is to find a maximum-clique transversal set of G of minimum cardinality. Motivated by the placement of transmitters for cellular telephones, Chang, Kloks, and Lee introduced the concept of maximum-clique transversal sets on graphs in 2001. In this paper, we study the weighted version of the maximum-clique transversal set problem for split grap...

A qualitative study on acceptable levels of risk for pregnant women in clinical research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Zande, Indira S. E.; van der Graaf, Rieke; Oudijk, Martijn A.; van Delden, Johannes J. M.

2017-01-01

There is ambiguity with regard to what counts as an acceptable level of risk in clinical research in pregnant women and there is no input from stakeholders relative to such research risks. The aim of our paper was to explore what stakeholders who are actively involved in the conduct of clinical

Tract- and county-level income inequality and individual risk of obesity in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Jessie X; Wen, Ming; Kowaleski-Jones, Lori

2016-01-01

We tested three alternative hypotheses regarding the relationship between income inequality and individual risk of obesity at two geographical scales: U.S. Census tract and county. Income inequality was measured by Gini coefficients, created from the 2000 U.S. Census. Obesity was clinically measured in the 2003-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The individual measures and area measures were geo-linked to estimate three sets of multi-level models: tract only, county only, and tract and county simultaneously. Gender was tested as a moderator. At both the tract and county levels, higher income inequality was associated with lower individual risk of obesity. The size of the coefficient was larger for county-level Gini than for tract-level Gini; and controlling income inequality at one level did not reduce the impact of income inequality at the other level. Gender was not a significant moderator for the obesity-income inequality association. Higher tract and county income inequality was associated with lower individual risk of obesity, indicating that at least at the tract and county levels and in the context of cross-sectional data, the public health goal of reducing the rate of obesity is in line with anti-poverty policies of addressing poverty through mixed-income development where neighborhood income inequality is likely higher than homogeneous neighborhoods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor Levels in Tuberculosis Patients at High Risk for Multidrug Resistance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tri Yudani Mardining Raras

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR has been shown to be a strong prognostic biomarker for tuberculosis (TB. In the present study, the profiles of plasma suPAR levels in pulmonary TB patients at high risk for multidrug resistance were analyzed and compared with those in multidrug resistant (MDR-TB patients. Forty patients were prospectively included, consisting of 10 MDR-TB patients and 30 TB patients at high risk for MDR, underwent clinical assesment. Plasma suPAR levels were measured using ELISA (SUPARnostic, Denmark and bacterial cultures were performed in addition to drug susceptibility tests. All patients of suspected MDR-TB group demonstrated significantly higher suPAR levels compared with the healthy TB-negative group (1.79 ng/mL. Among the three groups at high risk for MDR-TB, only the relapse group (7.87 ng/mL demonstrated suPAR levels comparable with those of MDR-TB patients (7.67 ng/mL. suPAR levels in the two-month negative acid-fast bacilli conversion group (9.29 ng/mL were higher than positive control, whereas levels in the group consisting of therapy failure patients (5.32 ng/mL were lower. Our results strongly suggest that suPAR levels enable rapid screening of suspected MDR-TB patients, but cannot differentiate between groups.

Blood trihalomethane levels and the risk of total cancer mortality in US adults

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Min, Jin-Young; Min, Kyoung-Bok

2016-01-01

Background: Although animal data have suggested the carcinogenic activity of trihalomethanes (THMs), there is inconsistent evidence supporting the link between THM exposure and cancers in humans. Objectives: We investigated the association between specific and total blood THM levels with the risk of total cancer mortality in adults. Methods: We analyzed data from the 1999–2004 Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Linked Mortality File of the United States. A total of 933 adults (20–59 years of age) with available blood THM levels and no missing data for other variables were included. Four different THM species (chloroform, bromodichloromethane (BDCM), dibromochloromethane (DBCM) and bromoform) were included, and the codes associated with cancer (malignant neoplasm) were C00 through C97, based on the underlying causes of death listed in the International Classification of Disease 10the Revision. Results: Compared with adults in the lowest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles, those in the highest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles exhibited adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of total cancer mortality of 4.97 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.59–15.50), 4.94 (95% CI = 1.56–15.61), and 3.42 (95% CI = 1.21–15.43) respectively. The risk of total cancer mortality was not associated with increases in blood chloroform and total THM levels. Conclusions: We found that the baseline blood THM species, particularly brominated THMs, were significantly associated with total cancer mortality in adults. Although this study should be confirm by other studies, our findings suggest a possible link between THM exposures and cancer. - Highlights: • Trihalomethanes (THM) are classified as either probable or possible carcinogens. • Limited evidence on the link between THM and the incidence of cancer in humans. • We investigated the association between blood THM levels and the risk of total cancer mortality. • High

Maximum power demand cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biondi, L.

1998-01-01

The charging for a service is a supplier's remuneration for the expenses incurred in providing it. There are currently two charges for electricity: consumption and maximum demand. While no problem arises about the former, the issue is more complicated for the latter and the analysis in this article tends to show that the annual charge for maximum demand arbitrarily discriminates among consumer groups, to the disadvantage of some [it

Low and medium level radioactive waste repository: risk perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de; Bueno, Lilian de Oliveira; Vieira, Martha Marques Ferreira; Fonseca, Edvaldo Roberto Paiva da; Bellintani, Sandra Aparecida

2009-01-01

This paper focuses on the risk perception associated to the installation of low and intermediate level radioactive waste (LLRW and ILRW) disposal facilities. The purpose is to give support for the implementation of a repository in Brazil. Public acceptance results from a long term work and trust is vital for the process as it takes long to be conquered but might be shortly lost. Therefore, it is essential to care about the way each step is conducted. The knowledge about the system and the risks, the comprehension about these risks, the commitment with safety, adequate support systems for the project (legislation, involved institutions) and the excellence as a goal to be reached are extremely important parameters. The involvement of all interested parties in the decision-making process is condition for a successful and publicly acceptable implementation of such project. The steps for public acceptance of a repository are summarized as follow: Risk perception: to verify how the local population understand and feel the installation of a repository in the region. Media observatory: to continuously follow the news reaching the region where the repository will be installed, including different media. Local population social/economical/cultural profile identification: to determine the local population social/economical/cultural profile; to conduct a survey to know their expectations, allowing the proposal of compensation and incentives to fully account for their expectations. Finally, the philosophy governing this Project is: on doubt, the public must be heard and only after this public hearing the policies concerning the project shall be formulated. (author)

Low and medium level radioactive waste repository: risk perception

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de; Bueno, Lilian de Oliveira; Vieira, Martha Marques Ferreira; Fonseca, Edvaldo Roberto Paiva da; Bellintani, Sandra Aparecida [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], e-mail: araquino@ipen.br, e-mail: lbueno@ipen.br, e-mail: mmvieira@ipen.br, e-mail: efonseca@ipen.br, e-mail: sbellint@ipen.br

2009-07-01

This paper focuses on the risk perception associated to the installation of low and intermediate level radioactive waste (LLRW and ILRW) disposal facilities. The purpose is to give support for the implementation of a repository in Brazil. Public acceptance results from a long term work and trust is vital for the process as it takes long to be conquered but might be shortly lost. Therefore, it is essential to care about the way each step is conducted. The knowledge about the system and the risks, the comprehension about these risks, the commitment with safety, adequate support systems for the project (legislation, involved institutions) and the excellence as a goal to be reached are extremely important parameters. The involvement of all interested parties in the decision-making process is condition for a successful and publicly acceptable implementation of such project. The steps for public acceptance of a repository are summarized as follow: Risk perception: to verify how the local population understand and feel the installation of a repository in the region. Media observatory: to continuously follow the news reaching the region where the repository will be installed, including different media. Local population social/economical/cultural profile identification: to determine the local population social/economical/cultural profile; to conduct a survey to know their expectations, allowing the proposal of compensation and incentives to fully account for their expectations. Finally, the philosophy governing this Project is: on doubt, the public must be heard and only after this public hearing the policies concerning the project shall be formulated. (author)

Quality, precision and accuracy of the maximum No. 40 anemometer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Obermeir, J. [Otech Engineering, Davis, CA (United States); Blittersdorf, D. [NRG Systems Inc., Hinesburg, VT (United States)

1996-12-31

This paper synthesizes available calibration data for the Maximum No. 40 anemometer. Despite its long history in the wind industry, controversy surrounds the choice of transfer function for this anemometer. Many users are unaware that recent changes in default transfer functions in data loggers are producing output wind speed differences as large as 7.6%. Comparison of two calibration methods used for large samples of Maximum No. 40 anemometers shows a consistent difference of 4.6% in output speeds. This difference is significantly larger than estimated uncertainty levels. Testing, initially performed to investigate related issues, reveals that Gill and Maximum cup anemometers change their calibration transfer functions significantly when calibrated in the open atmosphere compared with calibration in a laminar wind tunnel. This indicates that atmospheric turbulence changes the calibration transfer function of cup anemometers. These results call into question the suitability of standard wind tunnel calibration testing for cup anemometers. 6 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.

Arsenic, lead, mercury and cadmium: Toxicity, levels in breast milk and the risks for breastfed infants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rebelo, Fernanda Maciel; Caldas, Eloisa Dutra

2016-01-01

Metals are ubiquitous in nature, being found in all environmental compartments, and have a variety of applications in human activities. Metals are transferred by maternal blood to the fetus via the placenta, and exposure continues throughout life. For the general population, exposure comes mainly from water and food consumption, including breast milk. In this paper, we reviewed studies on the toxicity of arsenic, lead, mercury and cadmium, the toxic metals of most concern to human health, focusing on the potential risks to newborns and infants. A total of 75 studies published since 2000 reporting the levels of these metals in breast milk were reviewed. Lead was the metal most investigated in breast milk (43 studies), and for which the highest levels were reported (up to 1515 µg/L). Arsenic was the least investigated (18 studies), with higher levels reported for breast milk (up to 149 µg/L) collected in regions with high arsenic concentrations in water (>10 µg/L). Data from 34 studies on mercury showed that levels in breast milk were generally higher in populations with high fish consumption, where it may be present mainly as MeHg. Cadmium levels in breast milk were the lowest, with means <2 µg/L in most of the 29 studies reviewed. Results of risk assessments indicated that the intake of arsenic, lead and mercury by infants through breastfeeding can be considered a health concern in most regions of the world. Although the potential risks to infants are mostly outweighed by the benefits of breast milk consumption, it is essential that contaminants be continuously monitored, especially in the most critical regions, and that measures be implemented by health authorities to reduce exposure of newborns and infants to these metals, and thus avoid unnecessary health risks. - Highlights: • Review of 75 studies that analyzed arsenic, lead, mercury and/or cadmium levels. • Higher levels of arsenic found in India; of mercury found in Brazil. • Lead was the most

Arsenic, lead, mercury and cadmium: Toxicity, levels in breast milk and the risks for breastfed infants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rebelo, Fernanda Maciel [Brazilian Health Surveillance Agency, University of Brasilia, 70910-900 Brasilia, DF (Brazil); Caldas, Eloisa Dutra, E-mail: eloisa@unb.br [Laboratory of Toxicology, Department of Pharmacy, University of Brasilia, 70910-900 Brasilia, DF (Brazil)

2016-11-15

Metals are ubiquitous in nature, being found in all environmental compartments, and have a variety of applications in human activities. Metals are transferred by maternal blood to the fetus via the placenta, and exposure continues throughout life. For the general population, exposure comes mainly from water and food consumption, including breast milk. In this paper, we reviewed studies on the toxicity of arsenic, lead, mercury and cadmium, the toxic metals of most concern to human health, focusing on the potential risks to newborns and infants. A total of 75 studies published since 2000 reporting the levels of these metals in breast milk were reviewed. Lead was the metal most investigated in breast milk (43 studies), and for which the highest levels were reported (up to 1515 µg/L). Arsenic was the least investigated (18 studies), with higher levels reported for breast milk (up to 149 µg/L) collected in regions with high arsenic concentrations in water (>10 µg/L). Data from 34 studies on mercury showed that levels in breast milk were generally higher in populations with high fish consumption, where it may be present mainly as MeHg. Cadmium levels in breast milk were the lowest, with means <2 µg/L in most of the 29 studies reviewed. Results of risk assessments indicated that the intake of arsenic, lead and mercury by infants through breastfeeding can be considered a health concern in most regions of the world. Although the potential risks to infants are mostly outweighed by the benefits of breast milk consumption, it is essential that contaminants be continuously monitored, especially in the most critical regions, and that measures be implemented by health authorities to reduce exposure of newborns and infants to these metals, and thus avoid unnecessary health risks. - Highlights: • Review of 75 studies that analyzed arsenic, lead, mercury and/or cadmium levels. • Higher levels of arsenic found in India; of mercury found in Brazil. • Lead was the most

Characteristics of Plantar Loads in Maximum Forward Lunge Tasks in Badminton.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiaoyue; Li, Jing Xian; Hong, Youlian; Wang, Lin

2015-01-01

Badminton players often perform powerful and long-distance lunges during such competitive matches. The objective of this study is to compare the plantar loads of three one-step maximum forward lunges in badminton. Fifteen right-handed male badminton players participated in the study. Each participant performed five successful maximum lunges at three directions. For each direction, the participant wore three different shoe brands. Plantar loading, including peak pressure, maximum force, and contact area, was measured by using an insole pressure measurement system. Two-way ANOVA with repeated measures was employed to determine the effects of the different lunge directions and different shoes, as well as the interaction of these two variables, on the measurements. The maximum force (MF) on the lateral midfoot was lower when performing left-forward lunges than when performing front-forward lunges (p = 0.006, 95% CI = -2.88 to -0.04%BW). The MF and peak pressures (PP) on the great toe region were lower for the front-forward lunge than for the right-forward lunge (MF, p = 0.047, 95% CI = -3.62 to -0.02%BW; PP, p = 0.048, 95% CI = -37.63 to -0.16 KPa) and left-forward lunge (MF, p = 0.015, 95% CI = -4.39 to -0.38%BW; PP, p = 0.008, 95% CI = -47.76 to -5.91 KPa). These findings indicate that compared with the front-forward lunge, left and right maximum forward lunges induce greater plantar loads on the great toe region of the dominant leg of badminton players. The differences in the plantar loads of the different lunge directions may be potential risks for injuries to the lower extremities of badminton players.

Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barend Prinsloo

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

Why Do At-Risk Mothers Fail To Reach Referral Level? Barriers ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In southern Tanzania, few high-risk pregnancies are channeled through antenatal care to the referral level. We studied the influences that make pregnant women heed or reject referral advice. Semi-structured interviews with sixty mothers-to-be, twenty-six health workers and six key-informants to identify barriers to use of ...

Using reanalysis and drought indices to study portfolio-level climate risk in the industry sector

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnafous, L.

2017-12-01

Water-related hazards including flooding due to extreme rainfall, persistent drought and pollution, either due to industrial operations themselves, or to the failure of infrastructure have emerged as a potential risk for industrial operations. Most companies have risk management plans at each operational location to address these risks to a certain design level. The residual risk may or may not be managed, and is typically not quantified at a portfolio scale, i.e. across many sites. Given that climate is the driver of many of these extreme events, and there is evidence of quasi-periodic climate regimes at inter-annual and decadal timescales, it is possible that a portfolio is subject to persistent, multi-year exceedances of the design level. It is thus likely that there is correlation in the climate-induced portfolio water risk across its operational sites as multiple sites may experience a hazard beyond the design level in a given year. Therefore, a need exists for water risk indexes that allow for an exploration of the possible space and/or time clustering in exposure across many sites contained in a portfolio. Focusing on extreme daily rainfall amounts and monthly to yearly drought, and using examples from major mining companies, we illustrate how such indexes can be developed using reanalysis products as well as gridded datasets of drought indices based on climate data records. For the examples of mining companies provided, we note that the actual exposure is substantially higher than would be expected in the absence of space and time correlation of risk as is often tacitly assumed within the industry. We also find evidence for the increasing exposure to climate-induced risk, and for decadal variability in exposure. The relative vulnerability of different portfolios to multiple extreme events in a given year is also demonstrated.

Cancer risks and low-level radiation in U.S. shipyard workers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matanoski, Genevieve M.; Tonascia, James A.; Correa-Villasenor, Adolfo; Yates, Katherine C.; Fink, Nancy; Elliott, Elizabeth; Sanders, Bruce; Lantry, Deborah

2008-01-01

The risks for four cancers, leukemia, lymphopoietic cancers (LHC), lung cancer and mesothelioma, were studied in workers from shipyards involved in nuclear powered ship overhauls. The population represented a sample of all workers based on radiation dose at study termination. The final sample included 28,000 workers with ≥5.0 mSv, 10,462 workers with <5.0 mSv and 33,353 non-nuclear workers. Nuclear workers had lower mortality rates for leukemia and LHC than United States (US) white males but higher rates of lung cancer and a significant five-fold excess of mesothelioma. Dose-dependent analyses of risks in the high exposure group indicated that for each cancer the risk increased at exposures above 10.0 mSv. An internal comparison of workers with 50.0 mSv exposures to workers with exposures of 5.0-9.9 mSv indicated relative risks for leukemia of 2.41 (95% CI: 0.5, 23.8), for LHC, 2.94 (95% CI: 1.0, 12.0), for lung cancer, 1.26 (95% CI: 0.9, 1.9) and for mesothelioma, 1.61 (95% CI: 0.4, 9.7) for the higher exposure group. Except for LHC, these risks are not significant. However, the increasing risk with increasing exposure for these cancers, some of which are known to be related to radiation, suggests that low-level protracted exposures to gamma rays may be associated with these cancers. Other agents such as asbestos, which are common to shipyard work, may play a role especially in the risk of mesothelioma. Future follow up of the population would identify bounds on radiation risks for this population for comparison with similar risks estimated from other populations. (author)

Defining a glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) level that predicts increased risk of penile implant infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Habous, Mohamad; Tal, Raanan; Tealab, Alaa; Soliman, Tarek; Nassar, Mohammed; Mekawi, Zenhom; Mahmoud, Saad; Abdelwahab, Osama; Elkhouly, Mohamed; Kamr, Hatem; Remeah, Abdallah; Binsaleh, Saleh; Ralph, David; Mulhall, John

2018-02-01

To re-evaluate the role of diabetes mellitus (DM) as a risk factor for penile implant infection by exploring the association between glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and penile implant infection rates and to define a threshold value that predicts implant infection. We conducted a multicentre prospective study including all patients undergoing penile implant surgery between 2009 and 2015. Preoperative, perioperative and postoperative management were identical for the entire cohort. Univariate analysis was performed to define predictors of implant infection. The HbA1c levels were analysed as continuous variables and sequential analysis was conducted using 0.5% increments to define a threshold level predicting implant infection. Multivariable analysis was performed with the following factors entered in the model: DM, HbA1C level, patient age, implant type, number of vascular risk factors (VRFs), presence of Peyronie's disease (PD), body mass index (BMI), and surgeon volume. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated to define the optimal HbA1C threshold for infection prediction. In all, 902 implant procedures were performed over the study period. The mean patient age was 56.6 years. The mean HbA1c level was 8.0%, with 81% of men having a HbA1c level of >6%. In all, 685 (76%) implants were malleable and 217 (24%) were inflatable devices; 302 (33.5%) patients also had a diagnosis of PD. The overall infection rate was 8.9% (80/902). Patients who had implant infection had significantly higher mean HbA1c levels, 9.5% vs 7.8% (P HbA1c level, we found infection rates were: 1.3% with HbA1c level of 9.5% (P HbA1c level, whilst a high-volume surgeon had a protective effect and was associated with a reduced infection risk. Using ROC analysis, we determined that a HbA1c threshold level of 8.5% predicted infection with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 65%. Uncontrolled DM is associated with increased risk of infection after penile implant surgery

Maximum opening of the mouth by mouth prop during dental procedures increases the risk of upper airway constriction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroshi Ito

2010-05-01

constriction. Practitioners should therefore consider applying not only systematic desensitization, but also general anesthesia to the patient who refuses treatment, because the safety of general anesthesia has advanced, and general anesthesia may be safer than the use of a prop and restraints.Keywords: mouth prop, dental procedure, upper airway constriction, asphyxia, maximum opening of the mouth, risk management

New considerations regarding the risk assessment on Tartrazine An update toxicological assessment, intolerance reactions and maximum theoretical daily intake in France.

Science.gov (United States)

Elhkim, Mostafa Ould; Héraud, Fanny; Bemrah, Nawel; Gauchard, Françoise; Lorino, Tristan; Lambré, Claude; Frémy, Jean Marc; Poul, Jean-Michel

2007-04-01

Tartrazine is an artificial azo dye commonly used in human food and pharmaceutical products. Since the last assessment carried out by the JECFA in 1964, many new studies have been conducted, some of which have incriminated tartrazine in food intolerance reactions. The aims of this work are to update the hazard characterization and to revaluate the safety of tartrazine. Our bibliographical review of animal studies confirms the initial hazard assessment conducted by the JECFA, and accordingly the ADI established at 7.5mg/kg bw. From our data, in France, the estimated maximum theoretical intake of tartrazine in children is 37.2% of the ADI at the 97.5th percentile. It may therefore be concluded that from a toxicological point of view, tartrazine does not represent a risk for the consumer. It appears more difficult to show a clear relationship between ingestion of tartrazine and the development of intolerance reactions in patients. These reactions primarily occur in patients who also suffer from recurrent urticaria or asthma. The link between tartrazine consumption and these reactions is often overestimated, and the pathogenic mechanisms remain poorly understood. The prevalence of tartrazine intolerance is estimated to be less than 0.12% in the general population. Generally, the population at risk is aware of the importance of food labelling, with the view of avoiding consumption of tartrazine. However, it has to be mentioned that products such as ice creams, desserts, cakes and fine bakery are often sold loose without any labelling.

Application of Probabilistic Modeling to Quantify the Reduction Levels of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Attributable to Chronic Aflatoxins Exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wambui, Joseph M; Karuri, Edward G; Ojiambo, Julia A; Njage, Patrick M K

2017-01-01

Epidemiological studies show a definite connection between areas of high aflatoxin content and a high occurrence of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hepatitis B virus in individuals further increases the risk of HCC. The two risk factors are prevalent in rural Kenya and continuously predispose the rural populations to HCC. A quantitative cancer risk assessment therefore quantified the levels at which potential pre- and postharvest interventions reduce the HCC risk attributable to consumption of contaminated maize and groundnuts. The assessment applied a probabilistic model to derive probability distributions of HCC cases and percentage reductions levels of the risk from secondary data. Contaminated maize and groundnuts contributed to 1,847 ± 514 and 158 ± 52 HCC cases per annum, respectively. The total contribution of both foods to the risk was additive as it resulted in 2,000 ± 518 cases per annum. Consumption and contamination levels contributed significantly to the risk whereby lower age groups were most affected. Nonetheless, pre- and postharvest interventions might reduce the risk by 23.0-83.4% and 4.8-95.1%, respectively. Therefore, chronic exposure to aflatoxins increases the HCC risk in rural Kenya, but a significant reduction of the risk can be achieved by applying specific pre- and postharvest interventions.

Differential Serum Cytokine Levels and Risk of Lung Cancer between African and European Americans

Science.gov (United States)

Pine, Sharon R.; Mechanic, Leah E.; Enewold, Lindsey; Bowman, Elise D.; Ryan, Bríd M.; Cote, Michele L.; Wenzlaff, Angela S.; Loffredo, Christopher A.; Olivo-Marston, Susan; Chaturvedi, Anil; Caporaso, Neil E.; Schwartz, Ann G.; Harris, Curtis C.

2015-01-01

Background African Americans have a higher risk of developing lung cancer than European Americans. Previous studies suggested that certain circulating cytokines were associated with lung cancer. We hypothesized that variations in serum cytokine levels exist between African Americans and European Americans, and increased circulating cytokine levels contribute to lung cancer differently in the two races. Methods Differences in ten serum cytokine levels, interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GMCSF), interferon (IFN)-γ and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α between 170 African-American and 296 European-American controls from the National Cancer Institute-Maryland (NCI-MD) case-control study were assessed. Associations of the serum cytokine levels with lung cancer were analyzed. Statistically significant results were replicated in the prospective Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial and the Wayne State University (WSU) Karmanos Cancer Institute case-control study. Results Six cytokines: IL-4, IL-5, IL-8, IL-10, IFNγ, and TNFα, were significantly higher among European-American as compared to African-American controls. Elevated IL-6 and IL-8 levels were associated with lung cancer among both races in all three studies. Elevated IL-1β, IL-10 and TNFα levels were associated with lung cancer only among African Americans. The association between elevated TNFα levels and lung cancer among European Americans was significant after adjustment for additional factors. Conclusions Serum cytokine levels vary by race and might contribute to lung cancer differently between African Americans and European Americans. Impact Future work examining risk prediction models of lung cancer can measure circulating cytokines to accurately characterize risk within racial groups. PMID:26711330

Possible ecosystem impacts of applying maximum sustainable yield policy in food chain models.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Bapan; Kar, T K

2013-07-21

This paper describes the possible impacts of maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and maximum sustainable total yield (MSTY) policy in ecosystems. In general it is observed that exploitation at MSY (of single species) or MSTY (of multispecies) level may cause the extinction of several species. In particular, for traditional prey-predator system, fishing under combined harvesting effort at MSTY (if it exists) level may be a sustainable policy, but if MSTY does not exist then it is due to the extinction of the predator species only. In generalist prey-predator system, harvesting of any one of the species at MSY level is always a sustainable policy, but harvesting of both the species at MSTY level may or may not be a sustainable policy. In addition, we have also investigated the MSY and MSTY policy in a traditional tri-trophic and four trophic food chain models. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association of Serum Adiponectin Levels with Metabolic Syndrome Risk Factors in Malay Adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nur Firdaus Isa

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction: This study aimed to investigate the relationship between serum adiponectin and metabolic syndrome in adults living in rural Malaysia. Methods: A total of 299 Malay adults (men=124; women = 175 with a mean age 48.8 (11.7 years were recruited. Measurements for waist circumference and blood pressure were taken before drawing an overnight fasting blood samples. Biochemical tests for triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, glucose and serum adiponectin concentration were measured. Results: Our results show that the adiponectin level in the subjects with metabolic syndrome was significantly lower than those without metabolic syndrome (p < 0.05. Among the metabolic syndrome risk factors, adiponectin level was significantly associated with hypertriglyceridemia and reduced HDL cholesterol (p < 0.001. Conclusion: The outcome from this study which highlights the association of hypoadiponectinemia with risk factors of metabolic syndrome in Malay adults, suggests that the reduced level of adiponectin may play a pivotal role in the development of metabolic syndrome in this ethnic group.

Procedures to relate the NII safety assessment principles for nuclear reactors to risk

CERN Document Server

Kelly, G N; Hemming, C R

1985-01-01

Within the framework of the Public Inquiry into the proposed pressurised water reactor (PWR) at Sizewell, estimates were made of the levels of individual and societal risk from a PWR designed in a manner which would conform to the safety assessment principles formulated by the Nuclear Installations Inspectorate (NII). The procedures used to derive these levels of risk are described in this report. The opportunity has also been taken to revise the risk estimates made at the time of the Inquiry by taking account of additional data which were not then available, and to provide further quantification of the likely range of uncertainty in the predictions. This re-analysis has led to small changes in the levels of risk previously evaluated, but these are not sufficient to affect the broad conclusions reached before. For a reactor just conforming to the NII safety assessment principles a maximum individual risk of fatal cancer of about 10 sup - sup 6 per year of reactor operation has been estimated; the societal ris...

Integrated Level 3 risk assessment for the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Payne, A.C. Jr.; Brown, T.D.; Miller, L.A.

1991-01-01

An integrated Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant using state-of-the-art PRA analysis techniques. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the risk to the offsite population during full power operation of the plant and to include a characterization of the uncertainties in the calculated risk values. Uncertainties were included in the accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, and the source term analysis. Only weather uncertainties were included in the consequence analysis. In this paper selected results from the accident frequency, accident progression, source term, consequence, and integrated risk analyses are discussed and the methods used to perform a fully integrated Level 3 PRA are examined. LaSalle County Station is a two-unit nuclear power plant located 55 miles southwest of Chicago, Illinois. Each unit utilizes a Mark 2 containment to house a General Electric 3323 MWt BWR-5 reactor. This PRA, which was performed on Unit 2, included internal as well as external events. External events that were propagated through the risk analysis included earthquakes, fires, and floods. The internal event accident scenarios included transients, transient-induced LOCAs (inadvertently stuck open relief valves), anticipated transients without scram, and loss of coolant accidents

Health and environmental risk-related impacts of actinide burning on high-level waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forsberg, C.W.

1992-05-01

The potential health and environmental risk-related impacts of actinide burning for high-level waste disposal were evaluated. Actinide burning, also called waste partitioning-transmutation, is an advanced method for radioactive waste management based on the idea of destroying the most toxic components in the waste. It consists of two steps: (1) selective removal of the most toxic radionuclides from high-level/spent fuel waste and (2) conversion of those radionuclides into less toxic radioactive materials and/or stable elements. Risk, as used in this report, is defined as the probability of a failure times its consequence. Actinide burning has two potential health and environmental impacts on waste management. Risks and the magnitude of high-consequence repository failure scenarios are decreased by inventory reduction of the long-term radioactivity in the repository. (What does not exist cannot create risk or uncertainty.) Risk may also be reduced by the changes in the waste characteristics, resulting from selection of waste forms after processing, that are superior to spent fuel and which lower the potential of transport of radionuclides from waste form to accessible environment. There are no negative health or environmental impacts to the repository from actinide burning; however, there may be such impacts elsewhere in the fuel cycle

Balancing public health and resource limitations: A role for ethical low-level risk communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McGinn, R.E.

1991-01-01

Recognition of the pervasiveness of risk in everyday life in modern industrial society has elicited calls for greater efforts to protect individual and public health. Yet, it is increasingly clear that decisions to do so must often be made in the context of significant limits in the amounts of financial resources available for achieving that protection. Achieving risk-free work, residential, and community environments may be so expensive as to render a private business unit uncompetitive or as to divert resources from or prelude commencing with other governmental projects with equal or greater health benefit potential. Ethical low-level risk communication (LLRC) is something risk-generating entities are morally obligated to do. However, such communication also offers important opportunities for such entities to move toward achieving better balances between health and the costs of protecting it. In this paper, the authors elaborate on several features of an ethically ideal LLRC process, focusing on those with aspects they hope are not obvious or common knowledge. In discussing these features, they provide examples of conflicts between health risks and resource limits at the level of the individual private firm, the local community, or the national government, such that LLRC with the feature in question provides an opportunity for mitigating or at least clarifying the conflict in question

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Donnelly, K.C.; Safe, S.H. [Texas A& M Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Randerath, K.; Randerath, E. [College Station and Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX (United States)

1994-12-31

To compare the standard chemical-based risk assessment with in vitro genotoxicity assays, two complex environmental mixtures from a wood preserving site were analyzed in the Salmonella/microsome and E. coli prophage induction assays. Using GC/MS, sample 003 was found to contain relatively low levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PNAs) and elevated levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), while sample 005 had higher levels of PNAs and relatively low levels of PCDDs. The complex mixtures were sequentially extracted with methylene chloride and methanol for analysis in Salmonella, or extracted with 1:1 hexane: acetone mixture for analysis in the prophage induction assay. At a dose of 1.0 mg/plate in Salmonella strain TA98 with metabolic activation, the methanol extract of sample 003 induced 197 net revertants, while sample 005 induced 436 net revertants. In the prophage induction assay, with activation, the hexane:acetone extract of sample 003 induced a fold increase that was slightly lower than that observed with sample 005. The estimated incremental carcinogenic risk for dermal adsorption and ingestion was 1.5E-3 for sample 003, while for sample 005 the estimated risk was 1.5E-2. Thus, the sample which induced the maximum response in both bioassays also had the highest estimated cancer risk. However, the frequency of PNA-DNA adducts in both skin and liver tissues was appreciably higher with sample 005 than with sample 003.

Risk Evaluation of Multiple Hazards during Sediment and Water Related Disasters in a Small Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Yamanoi, Kazuki; Fujita, Masaharu

2016-04-01

To reduce human damage due to sediment and water related disasters induced by heavy rainfall, warning and evacuation system is very important. In Japan, the Meteorological Agency issues the sediment disaster alert when the potential of sediment disaster increases. Following the alert, local government issues evacuation advisory considering the alert and premonitory phenomena. However, it is very difficult for local people to perceive the dangerousness around them because the alert and advisory do not contain any definite information. Therefore, they sometimes misjudge the evacuation action. One reason of this is not only crucial hazards but also relatively small-scale multiple hazards take place and rise evacuation difficulties during sediment and water related disaster. Examples of small-scale hazards include: rainfall-associated hazards such as poor visibility or road submergence; landslide-associated hazards such as slope failure or sediment inflow; and flood-associated hazards such as overtopping of river dike, inundation, or destruction of bridges. The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of multiple hazards during disaster events by numerical simulation. We applied the integrated sediment runoff model on unit channels, unit slopes, and slope units to an actual sediment and water related disaster occurred in a small basin in Tamba city, Hyogo, Japan. The maximum rainfall per hour was 91 mm (17/09/2014 2:00˜3:00) and the maximum daily precipitation was 414mm. The integrated model contains semi-physical based landslide prediction (sediment production) model, rainfall runoff model employing the kinematic wave method, model of sediment supply to channels, and bedload and suspended sediment transport model. We evaluated the risk of rainfall-associated hazards in each slope unit into 4 levels (Level I ˜ IV) using the rainfall intensity Ir [mm/hour]. The risk of flood- associated hazards were also estimated using the ratio of calculated water level and

Occurrence and Impact of Insects in Maximum Growth Plantations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nowak, J.T.; Berisford, C.W.

2001-01-01

Investigation of the relationships between intensive management practices and insect infestation using maximum growth potential studies of loblolly pine constructed over five years using a hierarchy of cultural treatments-monitoring differences in growth and insect infestation levels related to the increasing management intensities. This study shows that tree fertilization can increase coneworm infestation and demonstrated that tip moth management tree growth, at least initially.

DNA-polymorphisms and plasma levels of vascular disease risk factors in Greenland Inuit--is there a relation with the low risk of cardiovascular disease in the Inuit?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maat, M de; Bladbjerg, E-M; Johansen, L G

1999-01-01

Greenland Inuit are a population with a low risk of cardiovascular disease. Recently, we stated that frequencies of potentially high risk alleles of the apolipoproteins, fibrinogen, factor V, glycoprotein IIIa and factor VII (FVII) genes have different allele frequencies in the Inuit when compared...... and CVD risk in Caucasian populations, but for other measures this was not the case (allele frequencies of the PAI-1 polymorphism, and plasma levels of fibrinogen, FVII and t-PA). In conclusion there are clear differences in genetic background and plasma levels of risk factors in Greenland Inuit compared......, aged 30-34 gamma. In addition, we compared the plasma levels of these factors and those of C-reactive protein (CRP) and D-Dimer in Inuit and in Danes, comparable for age and gender. Frequencies (f) were assessed of the alleles that are known as the potential high risk alleles in Caucasians...

49 CFR 230.24 - Maximum allowable stress.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Maximum allowable stress. 230.24 Section 230.24... Allowable Stress § 230.24 Maximum allowable stress. (a) Maximum allowable stress value. The maximum allowable stress value on any component of a steam locomotive boiler shall not exceed 1/4 of the ultimate...

Application of Fuzzy Logic Inference System, Interval Numbers and Mapping Operator for Determination of Risk Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohsen Omidvar

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Background & objective: Due to the features such as intuitive graphical appearance, ease of perception and straightforward applicability, risk matrix has become as one of the most used risk assessment tools. On the other hand, features such as the lack of precision in the classification of risk index, as well as subjective computational process, has limited its use. In order to solve this problem, in the current study we used fuzzy logic inference systems and mathematical operators (interval numbers and mapping operator. Methods: In this study, first 10 risk scenarios in the excavation and piping process were selected, then the outcome of the risk assessment were studied using four types of matrix including traditional (ORM, displaced cells (RCM , extended (ERM and fuzzy (FRM risk matrixes. Results: The results showed that the use of FRM and ERM matrix have prority, due to the high level of " Risk Tie Density" (RTD and "Risk Level Density" (RLD in the ORM and RCM matrix, as well as more accurate results presented in FRM and ERM, in risk assessment. While, FRM matrix provides more reliable results due to the application of fuzzy membership functions. Conclusion: Using new mathematical issues such as fuzzy sets and arithmetic and mapping operators for risk assessment could improve the accuracy of risk matrix and increase the reliability of the risk assessment results, when the accurate data are not available, or its data are avaliable in a limit range.

Safety methodology and risk targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazimi, M.S.

1983-01-01