Future radioactive liquid waste streams study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rey, A.S.

1993-11-01

This study provides design planning information for the Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility (RLWTF). Predictions of estimated quantities of Radioactive Liquid Waste (RLW) and radioactivity levels of RLW to be generated are provided. This information will help assure that the new treatment facility is designed with the capacity to treat generated RLW during the years of operation. The proposed startup date for the RLWTF is estimated to be between 2002 and 2005, and the life span of the facility is estimated to be 40 years. The policies and requirements driving the replacement of the current RLW treatment facility are reviewed. Historical and current status of RLW generation at Los Alamos National Laboratory are provided. Laboratory Managers were interviewed to obtain their insights into future RLW activities at Los Alamos that might affect the amount of RLW generated at the Lab. Interviews, trends, and investigation data are analyzed and used to create scenarios. These scenarios form the basis for the predictions of future RLW generation and the level of RLW treatment capacity which will be needed at LANL.

Future radioactive liquid waste streams study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rey, A.S.

1993-11-01

This study provides design planning information for the Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility (RLWTF). Predictions of estimated quantities of Radioactive Liquid Waste (RLW) and radioactivity levels of RLW to be generated are provided. This information will help assure that the new treatment facility is designed with the capacity to treat generated RLW during the years of operation. The proposed startup date for the RLWTF is estimated to be between 2002 and 2005, and the life span of the facility is estimated to be 40 years. The policies and requirements driving the replacement of the current RLW treatment facility are reviewed. Historical and current status of RLW generation at Los Alamos National Laboratory are provided. Laboratory Managers were interviewed to obtain their insights into future RLW activities at Los Alamos that might affect the amount of RLW generated at the Lab. Interviews, trends, and investigation data are analyzed and used to create scenarios. These scenarios form the basis for the predictions of future RLW generation and the level of RLW treatment capacity which will be needed at LANL

Future-oriented tweets predict lower county-level HIV prevalence in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Ireland, Molly E; Schwartz, H Andrew; Chen, Qijia; Ungar, Lyle H; Albarracín, Dolores

2015-12-01

Future orientation promotes health and well-being at the individual level. Computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing billions of words used across the United States on Twitter tested whether community-level rates of future-oriented messages correlated with lower human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) rates and moderated the association between behavioral risk indicators and HIV. Over 150 million tweets mapped to U.S. counties were analyzed using 2 methods of text analysis. First, county-level HIV rates (cases per 100,000) were regressed on aggregate usage of future-oriented language (e.g., will, gonna). A second data-driven method regressed HIV rates on individual words and phrases. Results showed that counties with higher rates of future tense on Twitter had fewer HIV cases, independent of strong structural predictors of HIV such as population density. Future-oriented messages also appeared to buffer health risk: Sexually transmitted infection rates and references to risky behavior on Twitter were associated with higher HIV prevalence in all counties except those with high rates of future orientation. Data-driven analyses likewise showed that words and phrases referencing the future (e.g., tomorrow, would be) correlated with lower HIV prevalence. Integrating big data approaches to text analysis and epidemiology with psychological theory may provide an inexpensive, real-time method of anticipating outbreaks of HIV and etiologically similar diseases. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems. Operations and Transmission Planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ela, Erik [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hein, Jeff [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Schneider, Thomas [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

The Future of GLOSS Sea Level Data Archaeology

Science.gov (United States)

Jevrejeva, S.; Bradshaw, E.; Tamisiea, M. E.; Aarup, T.

2014-12-01

Long term climate records are rare, consisting of unique and unrepeatable measurements. However, data do exist in analogue form in archives, libraries and other repositories around the world. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Group of Experts aims to provide advice on locating hidden tide gauge data, scanning and digitising records and quality controlling the resulting data. Long sea level data time series are used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and climate studies, in oceanography to study changes in ocean currents, tides and storm surges, in geodesy to establish national datum and in geography and geology to monitor coastal land movement. GLOSS has carried out a number of data archaeology activities over the past decade, which have mainly involved sending member organisations questionnaires on their repositories. The Group of Experts is now looking at future developments in sea level data archaeology and how new technologies coming on line could be used by member organisations to make data digitisation and transcription more efficient. Analogue tide data comes in two forms charts, which record the continuous measurements made by an instrument, usually via a pen trace on paper ledgers containing written values of observations The GLOSS data archaeology web pages will provide a list of software that member organisations have reported to be suitable for the automatic digitisation of tide gauge charts. Transcribing of ledgers has so far proved more labour intensive and is usually conducted by people entering numbers by hand. GLOSS is exploring using Citizen Science techniques, such as those employed by the Old Weather project, to improve the efficiency of transcribing ledgers. The Group of Experts is also looking at recent advances in Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) technology, which mainly relies on patterns in the written word, but could be adapted to work with the patterns inherent in sea level data.

Reconnaissance level study Mississippi storm surge barrier

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Ledden, M.; Lansen, A.J.; De Ridder, H.A.J.; Edge, B.

2012-01-01

This paper reports a reconnaissance level study of a storm surge barrier in the Mississippi River. Historical hurricanes have shown storm surge of several meters along the Mississippi River levees up to and upstream of New Orleans. Future changes due to sea level rise and subsidence will further

Increased Glutamate and Homocysteine and Decreased Glutamine Levels in Autism: A Review and Strategies for Future Studies of Amino Acids in Autism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Ghanizadeh

2013-01-01

Full Text Available There are many reports about the significant roles of some amino acids in neurobiology and treatment of autism. This is a critical review of amino acids levels in autism. No published review article about the level of amino acids in autism was found. The levels of glutamate and homocystein are increased in autism while the levels of glutamine and tryptophan are decreased. Findings regarding the plasma levels of taurine and lysine are controversial. The urinary levels of homocysteine and essential amino acids in both the untreated and treated autistic children are significantly less than those in the controls. The current literature suffers from many methodological shortcomings which needed to be considered in future studies. Some of them are age, gender, developmental level, autism symptoms severity, type of autism spectrum disorders, medical comorbidities, intelligent quotient, diet, concomitant medications, body mass index, and technical method of assessment of amino acids.

Increased Glutamate and Homocysteine and Decreased Glutamine Levels in Autism: A Review and Strategies for Future Studies of Amino Acids in Autism

Science.gov (United States)

Ghanizadeh, Ahmad

2013-01-01

There are many reports about the significant roles of some amino acids in neurobiology and treatment of autism. This is a critical review of amino acids levels in autism. No published review article about the level of amino acids in autism was found. The levels of glutamate and homocystein are increased in autism while the levels of glutamine and tryptophan are decreased. Findings regarding the plasma levels of taurine and lysine are controversial. The urinary levels of homocysteine and essential amino acids in both the untreated and treated autistic children are significantly less than those in the controls. The current literature suffers from many methodological shortcomings which needed to be considered in future studies. Some of them are age, gender, developmental level, autism symptoms severity, type of autism spectrum disorders, medical comorbidities, intelligent quotient, diet, concomitant medications, body mass index, and technical method of assessment of amino acids. PMID:24167375

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruckert, Kelsey L; Oddo, Perry C; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelsey L Ruckert

Full Text Available Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90% estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability. Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

US power plant sites at risk of future sea-level rise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bierkandt, R; Levermann, A; Auffhammer, M

2015-01-01

Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by about 1 meter during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. We compute the power capacity that is currently out-of-reach of a 100-year coastal flooding but will be exposed to such a flood by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additional exposed capacity varies strongly among states. For Delaware it is 80% of the mean generated power load. For New York this number is 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: proposed and planned power plants are less exposed than those which are currently operating. However, power plants that have been retired or canceled were less exposed than those operating at present. If sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise may be costly but possible. (letter)

Adiabatic logic future trend and system level perspective

CERN Document Server

Teichmann, Philip

2012-01-01

Adiabatic logic is a potential successor for static CMOS circuit design when it comes to ultra-low-power energy consumption. Future development like the evolutionary shrinking of the minimum feature size as well as revolutionary novel transistor concepts will change the gate level savings gained by adiabatic logic. In addition, the impact of worsening degradation effects has to be considered in the design of adiabatic circuits. The impact of the technology trends on the figures of merit of adiabatic logic, energy saving potential and optimum operating frequency, are investigated, as well as degradation related issues. Adiabatic logic benefits from future devices, is not susceptible to Hot Carrier Injection, and shows less impact of Bias Temperature Instability than static CMOS circuits. Major interest also lies on the efficient generation of the applied power-clock signal. This oscillating power supply can be used to save energy in short idle times by disconnecting circuits. An efficient way to generate the p...

Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11: analogue for present and future sea-level?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Q. Bowen

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Comparison of the sea-level today with that of 400 000 years ago (MIS 11, when the Earth's orbital characteristics were similar may provide, under conditions of natural variability, indications of future sea-level during the present interglacial. Then, as now, orbital eccentricity was low and precession dampened. Evidence for MIS 11 sea-level occurs on uplifting coastlines where shorelines with geochronological ages have been preserved. The sea-level term and the uplift term may be separated with an "uplift correction" formula. This discovers the original sea-level at which the now uplifted shoreline was fashioned. Estimates are based on average uplift rates of the "last interglacial" sea-level (MIS 5.5 using a range of estimates for sea-level and age at that time at different locations. These, with varying secular tectonic regimes in different ocean basins, provide a band of estimates for the MIS 11 sea-level. They do not support the hypothesis of an MIS 11 sea-level at ~20 m, and instead show that it was closer to its present level.

Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-01

authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ Agencies. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR...COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2-20 contingent probabilities given their dependence on non-probabilistic emissions futures, have extended the ranges of...flood risk provides confidence in the associated projection as a true minimum value for risk management purposes. The contemporary rate observed by

Future extreme water levels and floodplains in Gironde Estuary considering climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Laborie, V.; Hissel, F.; Sergent, P.

2012-04-01

Within THESEUS European project, an overflowing model of Gironde Estuary has been used to evaluate future surge levels at Le Verdon and future water levels at 6 specific sites of the estuary : le Verdon, Richard, Laména, Pauillac, Le Marquis and Bordeaux. It was then used to study the evolution of floodplains' location and areas towards 2100 in the entire Estuary. In this study, no breaching and no modification in the elevation of the dike was considered. The model was fed by several data sources : wind fields at Royan and Mérignac interpolated from the grid of the European Climatolologic Model CLM/SGA, a tide signal at Le Verdon, the discharges of Garonne (at La Réole), the Dordogne (at Pessac) and Isle (at Libourne). A simplified mathematical model of surge levels has been adjusted at Le Verdon with 10 surge storms and by using wind and pressure fields given by CLM/SGA. This adjustment was led so that the statistical analysis of the global signal at Le Verdon gives the same quantiles as the same analysis driven on maregraphic observations for the period [1960 ; 2000]. The assumption used for sea level rise was the pessimistic one of the French national institute for climate change: 60 cm in 2100. The model was then used to study the evolution of extreme water levels towards 2100. The analysis of surge levels at Le Verdon shows a decrease in quantiles which is coherent with the analysis of climatologic fields. The analysis of water levels shows that the increase in mean water levels quantiles represents only a part of sea level rise in Gironde Estuary. Moreover this effect seems to decrease from the maritime limit of the model towards upstream. Concerning floodplains, those corresponding to return periods from 2 to 100 years for present conditions and 3 slices [2010; 2039], [2040; 2069] and [2070; 2099] have been mapped for 3 areas in Gironde Estuary : around Le Verdon, at the confluence between Garonne and Dordogne, and near Bordeaux. Concerning the evolution

Future Expectations of High School Students In Southeastern Turkey: Factors behind Future Expectations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hüseyin Şimşek

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This study was conducted to identify various future expectations of high school students in southeastern Turkey and factors behind their expectations. The sample of the study, which had a descriptive and associational survey design consisted of 1106 students randomly selected from 54 different high schools located in nine cities in southeastern Turkey. Data were collected through the “Future Expectation Scale (FES” developed by the researcher. Results indicated that personal and professional future, educational future, economic future and social future expectations of high school students in southeastern Turkey were generally above the average level. According to the study, being a teacher and a doctor took the first place among several professions to be further preferred by high school students. It was also concluded that future expectations of high school students did not differ on gender, high school type, CGPA, level of mother education, father’s occupation, family income level, the number of siblings, receiving pre-school education, and language spoken at home. On the other hand, future expectations of high school students were found to differ on the city where students being taught, grade level, corporal punishment, and tendency toward being a dropout.

The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Machguth, H.; Rastner, P.; Bolch, T.

2013-01-01

We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ~90 000 km2) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR...... experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half...... feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity...

Specifying the Concept of Future Generations for Addressing Issues Related to High-Level Radioactive Waste.

Science.gov (United States)

Kermisch, Celine

2016-12-01

The nuclear community frequently refers to the concept of "future generations" when discussing the management of high-level radioactive waste. However, this notion is generally not defined. In this context, we have to assume a wide definition of the concept of future generations, conceived as people who will live after the contemporary people are dead. This definition embraces thus each generation following ours, without any restriction in time. The aim of this paper is to show that, in the debate about nuclear waste, this broad notion should be further specified and to clarify the related implications for nuclear waste management policies. Therefore, we provide an ethical analysis of different management strategies for high-level waste in the light of two principles, protection of future generations-based on safety and security-and respect for their choice. This analysis shows that high-level waste management options have different ethical impacts across future generations, depending on whether the memory of the waste and its location is lost, or not. We suggest taking this distinction into account by introducing the notions of "close future generations" and "remote future generations", which has important implications on nuclear waste management policies insofar as it stresses that a retrievable disposal has fewer benefits than usually assumed.

Challenging Futures Studies To Enhance Participatory River Basin Management

Science.gov (United States)

van der Helm, R.

implementation. However, critical conceptual and design requirements have to be met in order to realise futures research potentials. Since the beginning of the 1990s futures studies are becoming (again) more and more widespread in many different domains (technology, education, urban development, agriculture, environment, etc.). Recently, experiences have been launched and are currently being launched in the water sector (of which the World Water Vision is a well -known - but not necessarily the most representative - example). Although futures studies on a river basin level are still scarce, they will offer already sufficient material for empirical analysis. The research, effectuated within a larger framework study on the implications of futures studies for environmental research, offers at this stage initially a conceptual understanding.

Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie; Copping, Andrea E.

2015-04-01

Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of the inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.

Performance assessment for future low-level waste disposal facilities at ORNL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, D.W.; Kocher, D.C.

1989-01-01

This paper discusses the strategy for waste management on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) and the approach to preparing future performance assessments that has evolved from previous performance assessment studies of low-level radioactive waste disposal on the ORR. The strategy for waste management is based on the concept that waste classification should be determined by performance assessment other than the sources of waste. This dose-based strategy for waste classification and management places special importance on the preparation and interpretation of waste disposal performance assessments for selecting appropriate disposal technologies and developing waste acceptance criteria. Additionally, the challenges to be overcome in the preparation of performance assessments are discussed. 7 refs

Association of triiodothyronine levels with future development of metabolic syndrome in euthyroid middle-aged subjects: a 6-year retrospective longitudinal study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hye Jeong; Bae, Ji Cheol; Park, Hyeong Kyu; Byun, Dong Won; Suh, Kyoil; Yoo, Myung Hi; Jae Hwan, Jee; Kim, Jae Hyeon; Min, Yong-Ki; Kim, Sun Wook; Chung, Jae Hoon

2017-04-01

Several cross-sectional studies have reported that thyroid hormone levels are associated with cardiovascular risk markers and metabolic syndrome (MetS) even in euthyroid subjects. However, the prognostic role of serum thyroid hormone levels in the risk of incident MetS has not been elucidated. We aimed to investigate the associations of baseline serum thyroid hormone levels with the development of MetS in healthy subjects. This 6-year, cross-sectional, longitudinal and follow-up study was conducted in 12 037 euthyroid middle-aged subjects without MetS subjected to comprehensive health examinations. Subjects were grouped according to total triiodothyronine (T3) quartiles. The hazard ratio (HR) for the development of MetS according to T3 quartiles was estimated using Cox proportional hazards model. During the 6-year period, 3544 incident cases of MetS (29%) were identified. The proportion of subjects with incident MetS increased across the T3 quartiles ( P for trend <0.001). The HR and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the development of MetS were significantly higher in the highest T3 quartile compared with the lowest T3 quartile even after adjusting for confounding variables including gender, age and smoking (HR: 1.238, 95% CI: 1.128-1.358, P  < 0.001). In euthyroid middle-aged subjects, serum T3 levels are associated with increased risk for future development of MetS. © 2017 European Society of Endocrinology.

Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100

The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Machguth, H; Rastner, P; Bolch, T; Mölg, N; Sørensen, L Sandberg; Aðalgeirsdottir, G; Van Angelen, J H; Van den Broeke, M R; Fettweis, X

2013-01-01

We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ∼90 000 km 2 ) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover. (letter)

Reducing the likelihood of future human activities that could affect geologic high-level waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-05-01

The disposal of radioactive wastes in deep geologic formations provides a means of isolating the waste from people until the radioactivity has decayed to safe levels. However, isolating people from the wastes is a different problem, since we do not know what the future condition of society will be. The Human Interference Task Force was convened by the US Department of Energy to determine whether reasonable means exist (or could be developed) to reduce the likelihood of future human unintentionally intruding on radioactive waste isolation systems. The task force concluded that significant reductions in the likelihood of human interference could be achieved, for perhaps thousands of years into the future, if appropriate steps are taken to communicate the existence of the repository. Consequently, for two years the task force directed most of its study toward the area of long-term communication. Methods are discussed for achieving long-term communication by using permanent markers and widely disseminated records, with various steps taken to provide multiple levels of protection against loss, destruction, and major language/societal changes. Also developed is the concept of a universal symbol to denote Caution - Biohazardous Waste Buried Here. If used for the thousands of non-radioactive biohazardous waste sites in this country alone, a symbol could transcend generations and language changes, thereby vastly improving the likelihood of successful isolation of all buried biohazardous wastes

Reducing the likelihood of future human activities that could affect geologic high-level waste repositories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1984-05-01

The disposal of radioactive wastes in deep geologic formations provides a means of isolating the waste from people until the radioactivity has decayed to safe levels. However, isolating people from the wastes is a different problem, since we do not know what the future condition of society will be. The Human Interference Task Force was convened by the US Department of Energy to determine whether reasonable means exist (or could be developed) to reduce the likelihood of future human unintentionally intruding on radioactive waste isolation systems. The task force concluded that significant reductions in the likelihood of human interference could be achieved, for perhaps thousands of years into the future, if appropriate steps are taken to communicate the existence of the repository. Consequently, for two years the task force directed most of its study toward the area of long-term communication. Methods are discussed for achieving long-term communication by using permanent markers and widely disseminated records, with various steps taken to provide multiple levels of protection against loss, destruction, and major language/societal changes. Also developed is the concept of a universal symbol to denote Caution - Biohazardous Waste Buried Here. If used for the thousands of non-radioactive biohazardous waste sites in this country alone, a symbol could transcend generations and language changes, thereby vastly improving the likelihood of successful isolation of all buried biohazardous wastes.

Future rise of the sea level: consequences and strategies on the shoreline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teisson, C.

1991-11-01

The Mean Sea Level may rise in a near future due to the warming of the atmosphere associated with the 'greenhouse effect'. The alarming estimations issued in the 1980's (several meters of surelevation in the next centuries) are now lowered: the ice sheets, the melting of which could induce such a rise, do not present signs of instability. A rise from 30 to 50 cm is likely to occur in the middle of the next century; there is a probability of 25% that the rise of sea level relative to the year 1980 stands beyond 1 meter by 2100. The consequences of such a rise on the shoreline and the maritime works are reviewed, and planning strategies are discussed. This study has been performed in the framework of a convention between EDF-LNH and the Sea State Secretary (Service Technique des Ports Maritimes et Voies Navigables) 41 refs., 31 figs., 6 tabs

Criteria, indicators and levels of formed professional functional competences of future teachers of physical culture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samsutina N.M.

2012-09-01

Full Text Available It is shown the structural components of the functional competence of professional teachers of physical education: motivational, cognitive and action-practical. We used the following methods of scientific knowledge, as the analysis of psychological, educational and methodological literature, synthesis, comparison, generalization, specification, classification, ordering Criteria and levels of occupational functional competence of future teachers of physical education. It is determined that the high level of professional formation of the functional competence of future teachers of physical culture is characterized by the motivation to perform professional functions of a teacher of physical culture, fundamental knowledge required to perform professional functions of a teacher of physical culture, a high level of general physical fitness, pronounced specific motor abilities and skills.

A study on relationship between abnormal accruals and future profitability: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the relationship between future profitability and abnormal accruals on selected firms from Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE. The study selects 223 firms from TSE market over the period 2007-2011. Using the regression analysis, the study shows there was no meaningful relationship between abnormal earnings and future profitability when the level of significance is five percent. There are also seven sub-hypotheses associated with the proposed study of this paper. The results indicate that while there were no meaningful relationship between firm size, ratio of book value to equity, capital expenditure, earnings quality, earning forecasted error and book value leverage on one side and future earnings, the study confirms a significance relationship between market leverage and future earnings.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2018-01-02

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use service demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

Science.gov (United States)

Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2016-01-01

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2016-03-08

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

Future health physics prospects in high-level nuclear waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waite, D.A.; Mayberry, J.J.

1986-01-01

The objective of this presentation is to provide an overview of health physics activities anticipated to be required at a high-level nuclear waste repository and to project the numbers of health physics personnel expected to be required to carry out these activities. Health physics personnel receiving consideration in the projections include the health physics manager, shift supervisors, area supervisors, health physicists, and technologists. Phases of the repository addressed are construction, operation, retrieval, and decommissioning. Specific topics discussed in the process of developing the projections are: (a) the basic features of a geologic repository, (b) the staffing requirements of such a repository, (c) health physics involvement in repository operations, and (d) the anticipated schedule for operation of repositories in the United States. A quantitative assessment of future health physics prospects in high-level nuclear waste management is included

The CMS High Level Trigger System: Experience and Future Development

CERN Document Server

Bauer, Gerry; Bowen, Matthew; Branson, James G; Bukowiec, Sebastian; Cittolin, Sergio; Coarasa, J A; Deldicque, Christian; Dobson, Marc; Dupont, Aymeric; Erhan, Samim; Flossdorf, Alexander; Gigi, Dominique; Glege, Frank; Gomez-Reino, R; Hartl, Christian; Hegeman, Jeroen; Holzner, André; Y L Hwong; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Frans; Meschi, Emilio; Mommsen, R K; O'Dell, Vivian; Orsini, Luciano; Paus, Christoph; Petrucci, Andrea; Pieri, Marco; Polese, Giovanni; Racz, Attila; Raginel, Olivier; Sakulin, Hannes; Sani, Matteo; Schwick, Christoph; Shpakov, Dennis; Simon, M; Spataru, A C; Sumorok, Konstanty

2012-01-01

The CMS experiment at the LHC features a two-level trigger system. Events accepted by the first level trigger, at a maximum rate of 100 kHz, are read out by the Data Acquisition system (DAQ), and subsequently assembled in memory in a farm of computers running a software high-level trigger (HLT), which selects interesting events for offline storage and analysis at a rate of order few hundred Hz. The HLT algorithms consist of sequences of offline-style reconstruction and filtering modules, executed on a farm of 0(10000) CPU cores built from commodity hardware. Experience from the operation of the HLT system in the collider run 2010/2011 is reported. The current architecture of the CMS HLT, its integration with the CMS reconstruction framework and the CMS DAQ, are discussed in the light of future development. The possible short- and medium-term evolution of the HLT software infrastructure to support extensions of the HLT computing power, and to address remaining performance and maintenance issues, are discussed.

Large-Ensemble modeling of past and future variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with a coupled ice-Earth-sea level model

Science.gov (United States)

Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert; Gomez, Natalya

2016-04-01

To date, most modeling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's response to future warming has been calibrated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach, we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat of Antarctica, making use of geologic data of the last ~20,000 years to test the model against the large-scale variations during this period. The ice model is coupled to a global Earth-sea level model to improve modeling of the bedrock response and to capture ocean-ice gravitational interactions. Following several recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large Ensemble (LE) statistical methods, performing sets of 625 runs from 30,000 years to present with systematically varying model parameters. Objective scores for each run are calculated using modern data and past reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea level records, cosmogenic elevation-age data and uplift rates. The LE results are analyzed to calibrate 4 particularly uncertain model parameters that concern marginal ice processes and interaction with the ocean. LE's are extended into the future with climates following RCP scenarios. An additional scoring criterion tests the model's ability to reproduce estimated sea-level high stands in the warm mid-Pliocene, for which drastic retreat mechanisms of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff failure are needed in the model. The LE analysis provides future sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds. Sensitivities of future LE results to Pliocene sea-level estimates, coupling to the Earth-sea level model, and vertical profiles of Earth properties, will be presented.

Episodic future thinking in semantic dementia: a cognitive and FMRI study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Armelle Viard

Full Text Available Semantic dementia (SD is characterized by gradual loss of semantic memory. While episodic autobiographical memory seems relatively preserved, behavioral studies suggest that episodic future thinking is impaired. We used fMRI to measure brain activity in four SD patients (JPL, EP, LL, EG while they envisioned future events and remembered personal past events. Twelve healthy elders served as controls. Episodic quality, emotion, mental imagery and level of consciousness (via remember/know judgements were checked at debriefing. We analyzed the future compared to the past for each patient. All patients presented lateral temporal atrophy, but varied in terms of frontal and anterior hippocampal atrophy. Patient JPL presented atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and left anterior hippocampus and was unable to engage in episodic future thinking, despite hyperactivations in frontal and occipital regions. Patient EP presented no atrophy in the anterior hippocampus, but atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyrus and had difficulties to engage in episodic future thinking. Patient LL presented atrophy in left anterior hippocampus, but hyperactivated its right counterpart for future compared to past thinking, permitting her to project efficiently in the future in an episodic way. Patient EG presented no atrophy in the superior medial frontal gyri or anterior hippocampi and was able to engage in episodic future thinking. Altogether, patients' future projections differed depending on the severity and localization of their atrophy. The functional integrity of bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and anterior hippocampus appear crucial for episodic future thinking: atrophy of both structures strongly impairs future projection, while integrity of these structures or hyperactivation of residual tissue normalizes episodic future projection.

Motivated for leisure in the future: a person-centred longitudinal study in the lowest level of secondary education

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Veen, I.; Peetsma, T.

2011-01-01

Long-term future time perspective on leisure has been found to relate negatively to school effort. This was studied further by recognizing types of students based on developments in long-term leisure perspectives and comparing their development in motivation and academic achievement. Around 1200

THE FUTURE OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AS A STUDY FIELD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Amatucci

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The field of International Business lies at a crossroads of analytical levels, themes and theoretical traditions, and it will probably remain at this point in the near future. This work follows five years (2001-2006 of the Journal of International Business Studies (JIBS to analyse the scope and evolution of themes, methodologies and theoretical traditions in 199 articles. After this phase, it discusses, with the help of colleagues gathered in two workshops, the future of the area in terms of two hypotheses: the convergence hypothesis of the dominance of a theoretical and thematic mainstream, and the divergence hypothesis of a “theoretical quilt” configuration of the field. It concludes that the editorial preferences of JIBS favour traditional approaches to the field and that the second “future” is the most likely to occur, leading International Business to evolve as a social reference more than an epistemological entity.

The Science-Policy Link: Stakeholder Reactions to the Uncertainties of Future Sea Level Rise

Science.gov (United States)

Plag, H.; Bye, B.

2011-12-01

Policy makers and stakeholders in the coastal zone are equally challenged by the risk of an anticipated rise of coastal Local Sea Level (LSL) as a consequence of future global warming. Many low-lying and often densely populated coastal areas are under risk of increased inundation. More than 40% of the global population is living in or near the coastal zone and this fraction is steadily increasing. A rise in LSL will increase the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and population dramatically, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy, society, and environment. Policy makers are faced with a trade-off between imposing today the often very high costs of coastal protection and adaptation upon national economies and leaving the costs of potential major disasters to future generations. They are in need of actionable information that provides guidance for the development of coastal zones resilient to future sea level changes. Part of this actionable information comes from risk and vulnerability assessments, which require information on future LSL changes as input. In most cases, a deterministic approach has been applied based on predictions of the plausible range of future LSL trajectories as input. However, there is little consensus in the scientific community on how these trajectories should be determined, and what the boundaries of the plausible range are. Over the last few years, many publications in Science, Nature and other peer-reviewed scientific journals have revealed a broad range of possible futures and significant epistemic uncertainties and gaps concerning LSL changes. Based on the somewhat diffuse science input, policy and decision makers have made rather different choices for mitigation and adaptation in cases such as Venice, The Netherlands, New York City, and the San Francisco Bay area. Replacing the deterministic, prediction-based approach with a statistical one that fully accounts for the uncertainties and epistemic gaps

Leader Narcissism and Outcomes in Organizations: A Review at Multiple Levels of Analysis and Implications for Future Research

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, Susanne

2017-01-01

Narcissists often pursue leadership and are selected for leadership positions by others. At the same time, they act in their own best interest, putting the needs and interests of others at risk. While theoretical arguments clearly link narcissism and leadership, the question whether leader narcissism is good or bad for organizations and their members remains unanswered. Narcissism seems to have two sides, a bright and a dark one. This systematic literature review seeks to contribute to the ongoing academic discussion about the positive or negative impact of leader narcissism in organizations. Forty-five original research articles were categorized according to outcomes at three levels of analysis: the dyadic level (focusing on leader-follower relationships), the team level (focusing on work teams and small groups), and the organizational level. On this basis, we first summarized the current state of knowledge about the impact that leader narcissism has on outcomes at different levels of analysis. Next, we revealed similarities and contradictions between research findings within and across levels of analysis, highlighting persistent inconsistencies concerning the question whether leader narcissism has positive or negative consequences. Finally, we outlined theoretical and methodological implications for future studies of leader narcissism. This multi-level perspective ascertains a new, systematic view of leader narcissism and its consequences for organizations and their stakeholders. The article demonstrates the need for future research in the field of leader narcissism and opens up new avenues for inquiry. PMID:28579967

Leader Narcissism and Outcomes in Organizations: A Review at Multiple Levels of Analysis and Implications for Future Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, Susanne

2017-01-01

Narcissists often pursue leadership and are selected for leadership positions by others. At the same time, they act in their own best interest, putting the needs and interests of others at risk. While theoretical arguments clearly link narcissism and leadership, the question whether leader narcissism is good or bad for organizations and their members remains unanswered. Narcissism seems to have two sides, a bright and a dark one. This systematic literature review seeks to contribute to the ongoing academic discussion about the positive or negative impact of leader narcissism in organizations. Forty-five original research articles were categorized according to outcomes at three levels of analysis: the dyadic level (focusing on leader-follower relationships), the team level (focusing on work teams and small groups), and the organizational level. On this basis, we first summarized the current state of knowledge about the impact that leader narcissism has on outcomes at different levels of analysis. Next, we revealed similarities and contradictions between research findings within and across levels of analysis, highlighting persistent inconsistencies concerning the question whether leader narcissism has positive or negative consequences. Finally, we outlined theoretical and methodological implications for future studies of leader narcissism. This multi-level perspective ascertains a new, systematic view of leader narcissism and its consequences for organizations and their stakeholders. The article demonstrates the need for future research in the field of leader narcissism and opens up new avenues for inquiry.

Leader Narcissism and Outcomes in Organizations: A Review at Multiple Levels of Analysis and Implications for Future Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susanne Braun

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Narcissists often pursue leadership and are selected for leadership positions by others. At the same time, they act in their own best interest, putting the needs and interests of others at risk. While theoretical arguments clearly link narcissism and leadership, the question whether leader narcissism is good or bad for organizations and their members remains unanswered. Narcissism seems to have two sides, a bright and a dark one. This systematic literature review seeks to contribute to the ongoing academic discussion about the positive or negative impact of leader narcissism in organizations. Forty-five original research articles were categorized according to outcomes at three levels of analysis: the dyadic level (focusing on leader-follower relationships, the team level (focusing on work teams and small groups, and the organizational level. On this basis, we first summarized the current state of knowledge about the impact that leader narcissism has on outcomes at different levels of analysis. Next, we revealed similarities and contradictions between research findings within and across levels of analysis, highlighting persistent inconsistencies concerning the question whether leader narcissism has positive or negative consequences. Finally, we outlined theoretical and methodological implications for future studies of leader narcissism. This multi-level perspective ascertains a new, systematic view of leader narcissism and its consequences for organizations and their stakeholders. The article demonstrates the need for future research in the field of leader narcissism and opens up new avenues for inquiry.

Effect of Pumping on Groundwater Levels: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Sindhu, G.; Vijayachandran, Lekshmi

2018-06-01

Groundwater is a major source for drinking and domestic purposes. Nowadays, extensive pumping has become a major issue of concern since pumping has led to rapid decline in the groundwater table, thus imposing landward gradient, leading to saline water intrusion especially in coastal areas. Groundwater pumping has seen its utmost effect on coastal aquifer systems, where the sea-ward gradient gets disturbed due to anthropogenic influences. Hence, a groundwater flow modelling of an aquifer system is essential for understanding the various hydro-geologic conditions, which can be used to study the responses of the aquifer system with regard to various pumping scenarios. Besides, a model helps to predict the water levels for the future period with respect to changing environment. In this study, a finite element groundwater flow model of a coastal aquifer system at Aakulam, Trivandrum district is developed, calibrated and simulated using the software Finite Element subsurface Flow system (FEFLOW 6.2).This simulated model is then used to predict the groundwater levels for a future 5 year period during pre monsoon and post monsoon season.

Effect of Pumping on Groundwater Levels: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Sindhu, G.; Vijayachandran, Lekshmi

2018-03-01

Groundwater is a major source for drinking and domestic purposes. Nowadays, extensive pumping has become a major issue of concern since pumping has led to rapid decline in the groundwater table, thus imposing landward gradient, leading to saline water intrusion especially in coastal areas. Groundwater pumping has seen its utmost effect on coastal aquifer systems, where the sea-ward gradient gets disturbed due to anthropogenic influences. Hence, a groundwater flow modelling of an aquifer system is essential for understanding the various hydro-geologic conditions, which can be used to study the responses of the aquifer system with regard to various pumping scenarios. Besides, a model helps to predict the water levels for the future period with respect to changing environment. In this study, a finite element groundwater flow model of a coastal aquifer system at Aakulam, Trivandrum district is developed, calibrated and simulated using the software Finite Element subsurface Flow system (FEFLOW 6.2).This simulated model is then used to predict the groundwater levels for a future 5 year period during pre monsoon and post monsoon season.

A scenarios study on future demands on container and truck sizes of the future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Kraaijenhagen; Jan Jansen; H. Graser; Stef Weijers; I. Szylar

2012-01-01

To what extent will future demands of worldwide operating parties, regarding the (tertiary) packaging of their freight flows, determine or influence the future dimensions of freight trucks? That is the question we address to in this paper. In this study we have studied what container sizes may fit

Future Reef Growth Can Mitigate Physical Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Atoll Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Beetham, Edward; Kench, Paul S.; Popinet, Stéphane

2017-10-01

We present new detail on how future sea-level rise (SLR) will modify nonlinear wave transformation processes, shoreline wave energy, and wave driven flooding on atoll islands. Frequent and destructive wave inundation is a primary climate-change hazard that may render atoll islands uninhabitable in the near future. However, limited research has examined the physical vulnerability of atoll islands to future SLR and sparse information are available to implement process-based coastal management on coral reef environments. We utilize a field-verified numerical model capable of resolving all nonlinear wave transformation processes to simulate how future SLR will modify wave dissipation and overtopping on Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, accounting for static and accretionary reef adjustment morphologies. Results show that future SLR coupled with a static reef morphology will not only increase shoreline wave energy and overtopping but will fundamentally alter the spectral composition of shoreline energy by decreasing the contemporary influence of low-frequency infragravity waves. "Business-as-usual" emissions (RCP 8.5) will result in annual wave overtopping on Funafuti Atoll by 2030, with overtopping at high tide under mean wave conditions occurring from 2090. Comparatively, vertical reef accretion in response to SLR will prevent any significant increase in shoreline wave energy and mitigate wave driven flooding volume by 72%. Our results provide the first quantitative assessment of how effective future reef accretion can be at mitigating SLR-associated flooding on atoll islands and endorse active reef conservation and restoration for future coastal protection.

Motivated for Leisure in the Future: A Person-Centred Longitudinal Study in the Lowest Level of Secondary Education

Science.gov (United States)

Van der Veen, Ineke; Peetsma, Thea

2011-01-01

Long-term future time perspective on leisure has been found to relate negatively to school effort. This was studied further by recognizing types of students based on developments in long-term leisure perspectives and comparing their development in motivation and academic achievement. Around 1200 12-13 year old students attending the lowest level…

Grain protein concentration and harvestable protein under future climate conditions. A study of 108 spring barley accessions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Gislum, René; Jørgensen, Johannes Ravn

2016-01-01

In the present study a set of 108 spring barley (H. vulgare L.) accessions were cultivated under predicted future levels of temperature and [CO2] as single factors and in combination (IPCC, AR5, RCP8.5). Across all genotypes, elevated [CO2] (700 ppm day/night) slightly decreased protein concentra......In the present study a set of 108 spring barley (H. vulgare L.) accessions were cultivated under predicted future levels of temperature and [CO2] as single factors and in combination (IPCC, AR5, RCP8.5). Across all genotypes, elevated [CO2] (700 ppm day/night) slightly decreased protein...

A Study on stabilization of energy supply and demand using foreign futures market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Won Chul; Lee, Sung Keun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-02-01

This study seeks to minimize financial cost related to the price stabilization and the supply and demand stabilization. In order to accomplish this, it derives a theoretical model of supply hedging to minimize fluctuation risk of price and financial cost intended for crude oil and LNG. Through the positive analysis based on this, it analyzes quantitatively the economic effect of utilizing foreign futures market. It shows the decline of average and divergence of supply cost. Despite the economic effect of utilizing a futures market, the degree of utilizing energy futures market of related firms in Korea appeared to be insufficient. To raise the utilization of trading in futures, the followings were suggested. Firstly, cost reduction and sharing relating information can be designed through the joint participation among allied enterprises. Secondly, energy futures transaction center in Korea can be established or trading linkage based on the existing international trading system can be built. Thirdly, it is possible to subsidize related cost by making a loan from trading in futures. Lastly, the participating directly in a futures market at government level can be considered. (author). 61 refs., 57 figs., 22 tabs.

Episodic Future Thinking in Semantic Dementia: A Cognitive and fMRI Study

Science.gov (United States)

Viard, Armelle; Piolino, Pascale; Belliard, Serge; de La Sayette, Vincent; Desgranges, Béatrice; Eustache, Francis

2014-01-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is characterized by gradual loss of semantic memory. While episodic autobiographical memory seems relatively preserved, behavioral studies suggest that episodic future thinking is impaired. We used fMRI to measure brain activity in four SD patients (JPL, EP, LL, EG) while they envisioned future events and remembered personal past events. Twelve healthy elders served as controls. Episodic quality, emotion, mental imagery and level of consciousness (via remember/know judgements) were checked at debriefing. We analyzed the future compared to the past for each patient. All patients presented lateral temporal atrophy, but varied in terms of frontal and anterior hippocampal atrophy. Patient JPL presented atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and left anterior hippocampus and was unable to engage in episodic future thinking, despite hyperactivations in frontal and occipital regions. Patient EP presented no atrophy in the anterior hippocampus, but atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyrus and had difficulties to engage in episodic future thinking. Patient LL presented atrophy in left anterior hippocampus, but hyperactivated its right counterpart for future compared to past thinking, permitting her to project efficiently in the future in an episodic way. Patient EG presented no atrophy in the superior medial frontal gyri or anterior hippocampi and was able to engage in episodic future thinking. Altogether, patients' future projections differed depending on the severity and localization of their atrophy. The functional integrity of bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and anterior hippocampus appear crucial for episodic future thinking: atrophy of both structures strongly impairs future projection, while integrity of these structures or hyperactivation of residual tissue normalizes episodic future projection. PMID:25333997

An independent verification and validation of the Future Theater Level Model conceptual model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hartley, D.S. III; Kruse, K.L.; Martellaro, A.J.; Packard, S.L.; Thomas, B. Jr.; Turley, V.K.

1994-08-01

This report describes the methodology and results of independent verification and validation performed on a combat model in its design stage. The combat model is the Future Theater Level Model (FTLM), under development by The Joint Staff/J-8. J-8 has undertaken its development to provide an analysis tool that addresses the uncertainties of combat more directly than previous models and yields more rapid study results. The methodology adopted for this verification and validation consisted of document analyses. Included were detailed examination of the FTLM design documents (at all stages of development), the FTLM Mission Needs Statement, and selected documentation for other theater level combat models. These documents were compared to assess the FTLM as to its design stage, its purpose as an analytical combat model, and its capabilities as specified in the Mission Needs Statement. The conceptual design passed those tests. The recommendations included specific modifications as well as a recommendation for continued development. The methodology is significant because independent verification and validation have not been previously reported as being performed on a combat model in its design stage. The results are significant because The Joint Staff/J-8 will be using the recommendations from this study in determining whether to proceed with develop of the model.

STUDY OF FUTURE PRIMARY SCHOOL TEACHERS’ CULTURAL TRAINING WITHIN THE INFORMATION CULTURE OF SOCIETY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatiana Vinnyk

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The article presents the results of scientific studies and experimental approbation of pedagogical conditions of future primary school teachers’ cultural training taking into account the information culture of society. The nature and structure of the notion «future primary school teachers’ cultural training» are clarified. The indicated phenomenon is considered as the structure of four levels, the core of which is personality’s humanistic orientation, the totality of psychological-pedagogical and cultural knowledge and skills, the complex of professionally significant personal qualities. The author pointed out the criteria and related indicators of cultural proficiency, they are: value-motivational (vocational and humanistic orientation; the presence of values and professional motives; motivation for success; substantial and procedural (knowledge and skills in psycho-pedagogical disciplines; the body of knowledge regarding the content and components of cultural training, cultural skills; assessment and behavioral (the existence of communicative qualities, ability to empathy, tolerance. Levels of future primary school teachers’ cultural readiness: high, average and low are characterized. The experience of ICT using in students’ cultural training is presented. Pedagogical conditions of future primary school teachers’ cultural training in University are identified, their effectiveness is proved by experimental testing

On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

2010-12-01

Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

Science.gov (United States)

Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

2013-12-01

The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution

The impact of future sea-level rise on the global tides

Science.gov (United States)

Pickering, M. D.; Horsburgh, K. J.; Blundell, J. R.; Hirschi, J. J.-M.; Nicholls, R. J.; Verlaan, M.; Wells, N. C.

2017-06-01

Tides are a key component in coastal extreme water levels. Possible changes in the tides caused by mean sea-level rise (SLR) are therefore of importance in the analysis of coastal flooding, as well as many other applications. We investigate the effect of future SLR on the tides globally using a fully global forward tidal model: OTISmpi. Statistical comparisons of the modelled and observed tidal solutions demonstrate the skill of the refined model setup with no reliance on data assimilation. We simulate the response of the four primary tidal constituents to various SLR scenarios. Particular attention is paid to future changes at the largest 136 coastal cities, where changes in water level would have the greatest impact. Spatially uniform SLR scenarios ranging from 0.5 to 10 m with fixed coastlines show that the tidal amplitudes in shelf seas globally respond strongly to SLR with spatially coherent areas of increase and decrease. Changes in the M2 and S2 constituents occur globally in most shelf seas, whereas changes in K1 and O1 are confined to Asian shelves. With higher SLR tidal changes are often not proportional to the SLR imposed and larger portions of mean high water (MHW) changes are above proportional. Changes in MHW exceed ±10% of the SLR at 10% of coastal cities. SLR scenarios allowing for coastal recession tend increasingly to result in a reduction in tidal range. The fact that the fixed and recession shoreline scenarios result mainly in changes of opposing sign is explained by the effect of the perturbations on the natural period of oscillation of the basin. Our results suggest that coastal management strategies could influence the sign of the tidal amplitude change. The effect of a spatially varying SLR, in this case fingerprints of the initial elastic response to ice mass loss, modestly alters the tidal response with the largest differences at high latitudes.

Beyond Capitalist Realism - Why We Need Critical Future Studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luke Goode

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This paper introduces the interdisciplinary field of Critical Future Studies (CFS. CFS investigates the scope and constraints within public culture for imagining and debating different potential futures. It interrogates imagined futures founded - often surreptitiously - upon values and assumptions from the past and present, as well as those representing a departure from current social trajectories. CFS draws on perspectives from various disciplines including sociology, political studies, intellectual history, cultural history, media and cultural studies, utopian studies, science and technology studies, and philosophy. CFS also engages with discourses and ideas from the natural sciences (including popular science, computing and economics. And, given our concern with public culture, CFS aims to contribute constructively to vigorous and imaginative public debate about the future - a futural public sphere - and to challenge a prevalent contemporary cynicism about our capacity to imagine alternative futures while trapped in a parlous present. To that extent, we propose CFS as a programme of engaged and open-ended social critique, not as a solely academic endeavour. Our paper begins by describing the relationship between CFS and mainstream Future Studies. Subsequently, we discuss the contemporary context for Critical Future Studies. Here we make the case that CFS is a timely and even urgent project at our current historical juncture, arguing also for the significance of both utopian and dystopian imaginings. We then go on to discuss methodologies within CFS scholarship. Finally, we conclude by reflecting on the values underpinning CFS. Overall, this paper not only describes CFS as a field of research but also serves as an invitation to cultural scholars to consider how their own work might intersect with and contribute to CFS.

Well-being and Anticipation for Future Positive Events: Evidences from an fMRI Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Yangmei; Chen, Xuhai; Qi, Senqing; You, Xuqun; Huang, Xiting

2017-01-01

Anticipation for future confers great benefits to human well-being and mental health. However, previous work focus on how people's well-being correlate with brain activities during perception of emotional stimuli, rather than anticipation for the future events. Here, the current study investigated how well-being relates to neural circuitry underlying the anticipating process of future desired events. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, 40 participants were scanned while they were performing an emotion anticipation task, in which they were instructed to anticipate the positive or neutral events. The results showed that bilateral medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) were activated during anticipation for positive events relative to neutral events, and the enhanced brain activation in MPFC was associated with higher level of well-being. The findings suggest a neural mechanism by which the anticipation process to future desired events correlates to human well-being, which provide a future-oriented view on the neural sources of well-being.

Physical activity, C-reactive protein levels and the risk of future coronary artery disease in apparently healthy men and women: the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Sandhu, Manjinder S.; Day, Nicholas E.; Luben, Robert; Bingham, Sheila A.; Peters, Ron J. G.; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Khaw, Kay-Tee

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is inversely associated with the risk of future coronary artery disease. Whether this relationship is in part mediated by lower levels of systemic inflammation, as indicated by C-reactive protein concentrations, is unknown. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control

Future studies and research in Egypt. Overview, examples, perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goell, Edgar

2012-02-15

During the last decade there have been several distinct activities and efforts with regards to future research in Egypt. Several institutions and capacities have been created. Although these capacities do not always meet high scientific standards, their results and studies offer important and well-grounded elements for future-oriented discussions and political decisions. Not least because of the Egypt revolt which started in January 2011 and the ongoing complex and conflicting societal struggles in Egypt the objective needs as well as the demand for systematic future thinking and future studies will very likely increase further. For that reason this report presents an overview about the context conditions, experiences and forms of future research in Egypt. The major challenges as well as the major issues are described. The main part is the description of the most important institutions, which are conducting future research, their projects and in addition two concrete projects, which try to practice Sustainable Development in different ways. Finally, several (self-)critical assessments and perspectives from selected experts of the future research community in Egypt will be presented.

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-10-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Pacyna

2016-10-01

Full Text Available An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013 and future (2035 air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions, including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year−1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %, followed by biomass burning (9 %. A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has

Delivering high-level food industry skills for future food security through Advanced Training Partnerships

OpenAIRE

Frazier, Richard A.

2013-01-01

The UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council’s Advanced Training Partnerships initiative represents a significant investment in the provision of high-level skills for the UK food industry sector to address global food security from farm to fork. This paper summarises the background, aims and scope of the Advanced Training Partnerships, their development so far, and offers a view on future directions and evaluation of impact.

Essay on Methods in Futures Studies and a Selective Bibliography

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poulsen, Claus

2005-01-01

Futures studies is often conflated with science fiction or pop-futurism. Consequently there is a need for demarcation of what is futures studies and what is not. From the same reason the essay stresses the need for quality control to focus on futures research and its methods: Publications in futu...... programme are (only) partly reduced by applying Causal Layered Analysis as an internal quality control. The following selective bibliography is focussed on these methodological issues...

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.

Science.gov (United States)

Strauss, Benjamin H; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

2015-11-03

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.

Parents' concerns about future pregnancy after stillbirth: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Meaney, Sarah; Everard, Claire M; Gallagher, Stephen; O'Donoghue, Keelin

2017-08-01

As stillbirth has a devastating impact, it is imperative to understand the importance of clinical and emotional care after stillbirth and how it influences subsequent pregnancies. The aim of the study was to gain insight into the consideration and planning of a subsequent pregnancy by parents in the weeks following stillbirth. A qualitative semi-structured interview format was utilized. Interpretative phenomenological analysis was employed as the analytic strategy. The recruitment strategy focused on couples whereby the parents of ten stillborn babies were contacted; however, five men declined to participate in the study. The final sample of 15 parents were all Irish: ten of whom were female and five of whom were male. Findings revealed two superordinate themes relating to a subsequent pregnancy after stillbirth: aspirations for future pregnancy and expectations of future care. Parents disclosed how the prospect of a subsequent pregnancy was daunting with fears about the potential loss of another child. Despite these fears, parents' aspirations differed in the days following stillbirth; mothers wished to plan a future pregnancy while fathers were reluctant to consider any pregnancies. Parents were unsure of what to expect in terms of the level of care that would be provided to them in a subsequent pregnancy. Additional appointments at the maternity hospital were considered crucial to provide reassurance during a subsequent pregnancy. These findings underscore the far-reaching and contrasting effects of stillbirth on parents. These complex needs highlight the importance of the multidisciplinary team approach. © 2016 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent experience and future evolution of the CMS High Level Trigger System

CERN Document Server

Bauer, Gerry; Branson, James; Bukowiec, Sebastian Czeslaw; Chaze, Olivier; Cittolin, Sergio; Coarasa Perez, Jose Antonio; Deldicque, Christian; Dobson, Marc; Dupont, Aymeric; Erhan, Samim; Gigi, Dominique; Glege, Frank; Gomez-Reino Garrido, Robert; Hartl, Christian; Holzner, Andre Georg; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Franciscus; Meschi, Emilio; Mommsen, Remigius; Nunez Barranco Fernandez, Carlos; O'Dell, Vivian; Orsini, Luciano; Paus, Christoph Maria Ernst; Petrucci, Andrea; Pieri, Marco; Polese, Giovanni; Racz, Attila; Raginel, Olivier; Sakulin, Hannes; Sani, Matteo; Schwick, Christoph; Spataru, Andrei Cristian; Stoeckli, Fabian; Sumorok, Konstanty

2012-01-01

The CMS experiment at the LHC uses a two-stage trigger system, with events flowing from the first level trigger at a rate of 100 kHz. These events are read out by the Data Acquisition system (DAQ), assembled in memory in a farm of computers, and finally fed into the high-level trigger (HLT) software running on the farm. The HLT software selects interesting events for offline storage and analysis at a rate of a few hundred Hz. The HLT algorithms consist of sequences of offline-style reconstruction and filtering modules, executed on a farm of 0(10000) CPU cores built from commodity hardware. Experience from the 2010-2011 collider run is detailed, as well as the current architecture of the CMS HLT, and its integration with the CMS reconstruction framework and CMS DAQ. The short- and medium-term evolution of the HLT software infrastructure is discussed, with future improvements aimed at supporting extensions of the HLT computing power, and addressing remaining performance and maintenance issues.

Studies of the Future Aged. An International Symposium.

Science.gov (United States)

Friis, Henning; Sheppard, Harold L., Ed.

These six papers report on future-oriented studies of the situation of the elderly. "Changing Elderly in a Changing Society: Danish Elderly in the Next Century" (Henning Friis) reports on research dealing with preferences of the future elderly for their life when they grow older. "Aging Effectively: Meeting the Challenge of an Aging…

Thinking about the future as a way to succeed in the present: a longitudinal study of future orientation and violent behaviors among African American youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoddard, Sarah A; Zimmerman, Marc A; Bauermeister, José A

2011-12-01

Previous research has linked higher levels of hopelessness about one's future to violent behavior during adolescence; however, little is known about this relationship over time for adolescents. Using growth curve modeling, we tested the association between future orientation and violent behavior across the high school years of adolescence in a sample of African American youth (n = 681). Variation based on demographic characteristics (i.e., sex, SES, previous violence) was explored. At baseline, differences in violent behavior varied by demographic characteristics. Overall, violent behavior decreased with age. Higher levels of future orientation were associated with greater decreases in violent behavior over time. Demographic characteristics were not associated with change in violent behavior overtime. Our findings suggest that future orientation can act as a promotive factor for at risk African American youth. Interventions that help support the development of future goals and aspirations could play a vital role in violence prevention efforts.

Predictors of Future Expectations of Inner-City Children: A 9-Month Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Dubow, Eric F.; Arnett, Mitzi; Smith, Katherine; Ippolito, Maria F.

2001-01-01

Assessed contributions of internal resources, supportive family and peer relations, peer negative influences, and behavioral adjustment to positive expectations for the future for inner-city school children. Found that higher levels of positive expectation related to lower levels of problem behavior and to higher levels of school involvement,…

Modeling Anthropogenic Impact on Sediment Balance and Relative Sea-Level Rise in Contemporary and Future Deltas

Science.gov (United States)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Overeem, I.; Syvitski, J. P.

2017-12-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning, and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for both human and natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea-level rise across 46 global deltas. We model ongoing development and scenarios of future water resource management and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea-level in coastal delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea-level rise result in relative sea-level rise rates in deltas that average 6.8 mm/year. Currently planned or under-construction dams can be expected to increase rates of relative sea-level rise on the order of 1 mm/year. Some deltas systems, including the Magdalena, Orinoco, and Indus, are highly sensitive to future impoundment of river basins, with RSLR rates increasing up to 4 mm/year in a high-hydropower-utilization scenario. Sediment fluxes may be reduced by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Megnha if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas due to increased river channelization and local flood controls increases RSLR on average by nearly 2 mm/year. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea-level rise.

Predicted impacts of future water level decline on monitoring wells using a ground-water model of the Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wurstner, S.K.; Freshley, M.D.

1994-12-01

A ground-water flow model was used to predict water level decline in selected wells in the operating areas (100, 200, 300, and 400 Areas) and the 600 Area. To predict future water levels, the unconfined aquifer system was stimulated with the two-dimensional version of a ground-water model of the Hanford Site, which is based on the Coupled Fluid, Energy, and Solute Transport (CFEST) Code in conjunction with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software package. The model was developed using the assumption that artificial recharge to the unconfined aquifer system from Site operations was much greater than any natural recharge from precipitation or from the basalt aquifers below. However, artificial recharge is presently decreasing and projected to decrease even more in the future. Wells currently used for monitoring at the Hanford Site are beginning to go dry or are difficult to sample, and as the water table declines over the next 5 to 10 years, a larger number of wells is expected to be impacted. The water levels predicted by the ground-water model were compared with monitoring well completion intervals to determine which wells will become dry in the future. Predictions of wells that will go dry within the next 5 years have less uncertainty than predictions for wells that will become dry within 5 to 10 years. Each prediction is an estimate based on assumed future Hanford Site operating conditions and model assumptions

Time perspective and volunteerism: The importance of focusing on the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Maki, Alexander; Dwyer, Patrick C; Snyder, Mark

2016-01-01

Because volunteerism is a planned activity that unfolds over time, people who more frequently focus on the future might also be more likely to initiate volunteerism and sustain it over time. Using longitudinal (Study 1) and experimental (Study 2) paradigms, we investigated whether time perspective, and in particular a person's orientation toward the future, is related to volunteers' beliefs and behavior. In Study 1, a person's dispositional level of future time perspective was closely linked to volunteer beliefs and behavior. In Study 2, people who wrote about the future reported higher intentions to volunteer, and this was particularly true for infrequent volunteers and those with lower levels of dispositional future time perspective. Across two studies, we found evidence that future time perspective, whether a chronic disposition or a pattern of thought elicited by someone else, is linked to volunteer beliefs and behavior.

Future concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2, CFC and CH4 - an assessment on the educational level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoppenau, S.

1992-01-01

A model on the educational level is described to estimate effective future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. The effects of chlorofluorocarbon and methane emission and deforestation are taken into account. The influence of different emission scenarios on the time evolution of greenhouse-gas concentration are illustrated. Future global energy policies are discussed both under the aspects of rising world population and the reduction in global CO 2 emissions. The model can be handled on a PC or even on a pocket calculator

Future directions for high-spin studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephens, F.S.

1982-11-01

Some future directions for experimental high-spin studies are discussed, concentrating mainly on the region above I -- 30h, where the γ-ray spectra are currently unresolvable. The 4π NaI balls offer a means to exploit the temperature effects recently shown to exist in such spectra. Large arrays of Compton-suppressed Ge detectors, on the other and, lead to higher effective resolution as it becomes possible to study triple and quadruple coincident events

Assessment of studies and researches on warehousing - High-level and intermediate-level-long-lived radioactive wastes - December 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This large report first presents the approach adopted for the study and research on the warehousing of high-level and intermediate-level-long-lived radioactive wastes. It outlines how reversible storage and warehousing are complementary, discusses the lessons learned from researches performed by the CEA on long duration warehousing, presents the framework of studies and researches performed since 2006, and presents the scientific and technical content of studies and researches (warehousing need analysis, search for technical options providing complementarity with storage, extension or creation of warehousing installations). The second part addresses high-level and intermediate-level-long-lived radioactive waste parcels, indicates their origins and quantities. The third part proposes an analysis of warehousing capacities: existing capacities, French industrial experience in waste parcel warehousing, foreign experience in waste warehousing. The fourth part addresses reversible storage in deep geological formation: storage safety functions, storage reversibility, storage parcels, storage architecture, chronicle draft. The fifth part proposes an inventory of warehousing needs in terms of additional capacities for the both types of wastes (high-level, and intermediate-level-long-lived), and discusses warehousing functionalities and safety objectives. The sixth and seventh parts propose a detailed overview of design options for warehousing installations, respectively for high-level and for intermediate-level-long-lived waste parcels: main technical issues, feasibility studies of different concepts or architecture shapes, results of previous studies and introduction to studies performed since 2011, possible evolutions of the HA1, HA2 and MAVL concepts. The eighth chapter reports a phenomenological analysis of warehousing and the optimisation of material selection and construction arrangements. The last part discusses the application of researches to the extension of the

Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Schauwecker, Simone; Kronenberg, Marlene; Rohrer, Mario; Huggel, Christian; Endries, Jason; Montoya, Nilton; Neukom, Raphael; Perry, Baker; Salzmann, Nadine; Schwarb, Manfred; Suarez, Wilson

2017-04-01

In many regions of Peru, the competition for limited hydrological resources already represents a large risk for conflicts. In this context, and within the circumstances of climate change, there is a great interest in estimating the future loss of Peruvian glaciers. Solid precipitation on glaciers, which affects the shortwave radiation budget via its effects on albedo, in general reduces ablation. For that reason, the height of the upper level of the transition zone between liquid and solid precipitation (snowfall level height) is considered to play a critical role. This snowfall level height is linked to air temperature. The observed and projected warming of the atmosphere is therefore affecting the glaciers amongst others by changing the snowfall level height. Despite the potential significance of these changes for Peruvian glaciers, the relations between snowfall level heights, glacier extents and climate scenarios have been poorly investigated so far. In our study, we first analyse the snowfall level heights over the Peruvian Cordilleras. Second, we investigate the relationship between the present snowfall level heights and current glacier extents. As a third step, we derive projected changes of snowfall level heights from GCMs for the RCP2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios and use them to roughly estimate the end of XXI century glaciation for the Peruvian Cordilleras. Our results indicate a large difference in future glacier extent between the high-emission (pessimistic) RCP8.5 and the low-emission (optimistic) RCP2.6. If global emissions can be substantially reduced, a significant part of the glaciated area of Peru can be maintained. On the contrary, if mitigation is unsuccessful, most of the glacier mass in Peru will be lost during the 21st century. In both cases, but even more so for the high-emission scenario, adaptation will play a critical role and should focus on improvements in water resource management which is essential on a local to regional scale. Air

A high-speed DAQ framework for future high-level trigger and event building clusters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caselle, M.; Perez, L.E. Ardila; Balzer, M.; Dritschler, T.; Kopmann, A.; Mohr, H.; Rota, L.; Vogelgesang, M.; Weber, M.

2017-01-01

Modern data acquisition and trigger systems require a throughput of several GB/s and latencies of the order of microseconds. To satisfy such requirements, a heterogeneous readout system based on FPGA readout cards and GPU-based computing nodes coupled by InfiniBand has been developed. The incoming data from the back-end electronics is delivered directly into the internal memory of GPUs through a dedicated peer-to-peer PCIe communication. High performance DMA engines have been developed for direct communication between FPGAs and GPUs using 'DirectGMA (AMD)' and 'GPUDirect (NVIDIA)' technologies. The proposed infrastructure is a candidate for future generations of event building clusters, high-level trigger filter farms and low-level trigger system. In this paper the heterogeneous FPGA-GPU architecture will be presented and its performance be discussed.

Survey of studies of occupational populations exposed to low-level radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marks, S.

1980-04-01

Studies of occupational populations exposed to large doses of radiation, principally from the ingestion of radium by dial painters and inhalation of radon and its daughters by miners, have provided important information on the health effects of those radioisotopes. Studies of medical radiologists, military personnel exposed to nuclear tests, and factory workers exposed to thorium are in progress. Employees of DOE-contractor facilities and of naval shipyards are also under study. Personnel dosimetry data are generally available for the latter category of occupational populations. Reasons for conducting the studies include interest in exploring the verification at low exposure levels of results of studies of heavily exposed populations and the responsibility of the employer to maintain adequate surveillance of the health of his workers by conducting appropriate epidemiologic studies. The low level of exposure of workers in facilities where adequate personnel dosimetry records are available make it unlikely that the results of such studies can be used to provide health risk estimates in the near future

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, T.

2012-08-01

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented at the 2012 RE AMP Annual Meeting. RE-AMP is an active network of 144 nonprofits and foundations across eight Midwestern states working on climate change and energy policy with the goal of reducing global warming pollution economy-wide 80% by 2050.

Understanding the Association Between School Climate and Future Orientation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Pas, Elise; Bradshaw, Catherine P

2016-08-01

Promoting students' future orientation is inherently a goal of the educational system. Recently, it has received more explicit attention given the increased focus on career readiness. This study aimed to examine the association between school climate and adolescents' report of future orientation using data from youth (N = 27,698; 49.4 % female) across 58 high schools. Three-level hierarchical linear models indicated that perceptions of available emotional and service supports, rules and consequences, and parent engagement were positively related to adolescents' future orientation. Additionally, the school-level average future orientation was significantly related to individuals' future orientation, indicating a potential influence of contextual effects on this construct. Taken together, these findings suggest that interventions targeting school climate may hold promise for promoting future orientation.

Estimation of future levels and changes in profitability: The effect of the relative position of the firm in its industry and the operating-financing disaggregation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Borja Amor-Tapia

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we examine how the relative position of a firm's Return on Equity (ROE in industries affects the predictability of the next-year ROE levels, and the ROE changes from year to year. Using Nissim and Penman breakdown into operating and financing drivers, the significant role of the industry factor is established, although changes in signs suggest subtle non-linear relations in the drivers. Our study avoids problems originating from negative signs by analyzing sorts and by making new regressions with disaggregated second-order drivers by signs. This way, our results provide evidence of some different patterns in the influence of the first-level drivers of ROE (the operating factor and the financing factor, and the second-level drivers (profit margin, asset turnover, leverage and return spread on future profitability, depending on the industry spread. The results on the role of contextual factors to improve the estimation of future profitability remain consistent for small and large firms, although adding some nuances.

Psychological-Educational Research of Professionally Essential Characteristics of Law Students’ Personalities, Studying at Bachelor Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentina A. Polyanskaya

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The article considers the results of psychological-educational research, implemented in teaching process of law students’, studying at bachelor level. Special attention is attached to self-determination of future lawyers in professional specialization during introduction training

Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

2009-12-03

Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

Using machine-coded event data for the micro-level study of political violence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesse Hammond

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Machine-coded datasets likely represent the future of event data analysis. We assess the use of one of these datasets—Global Database of Events, Language and Tone (GDELT—for the micro-level study of political violence by comparing it to two hand-coded conflict event datasets. Our findings indicate that GDELT should be used with caution for geo-spatial analyses at the subnational level: its overall correlation with hand-coded data is mediocre, and at the local level major issues of geographic bias exist in how events are reported. Overall, our findings suggest that due to these issues, researchers studying local conflict processes may want to wait for a more reliable geocoding method before relying too heavily on this set of machine-coded data.

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbara Neumann

Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

Russian State Leveling Network (present and future)

Science.gov (United States)

Mazurova, Elena; Kopeikin, Sergei; Karpik, Aleksander

2017-04-01

In August 2016 the sixth session of the United Nations Committee of Experts of Global Geospatial Information Management (UN-GGIM) endorsed the roadmap for the development of a Global Geodetic Reference Frame (GGRF) and urged countries to join efforts for its creation. In response to the UN appeal in this article describes the current state of the high-precision Leveling Network in Russia and prospects of its development. In this paper, we consider projects related to the construction of new high-precision leveling lines by the classical methods, as well as issues of creating high-precision leveling network, associated with the development and implementation of a fundamentally new method of determining heights in geodesy - chronometric leveling based on the application of quantum metrology of time and the fundamental laws of general relativity. Keywords: leveling network, chronometric leveling, quantum metrology of time, the general theory of relativity.

FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

R.M. Forester

2000-01-01

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog

FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

R.M. Forester

2000-03-14

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

The future for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Sea Level Data Rescue

Science.gov (United States)

Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andrew; Rickards, Lesley; Aarup, Thorkild

2016-04-01

Historical sea level data are rare and unrepeatable measurements with a number of applications in climate studies (sea level rise), oceanography (ocean currents, tides, surges), geodesy (national datum), geophysics and geology (coastal land movements) and other disciplines. However, long-term time series are concentrated in the northern hemisphere and there are no records at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) global data bank longer than 100 years in the Arctic, Africa, South America or Antarctica. Data archaeology activities will help fill in the gaps in the global dataset and improve global sea level reconstruction. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) is an international programme conducted under the auspices of the WMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology. It was set up in 1985 to collect long-term tide gauge observations and to develop systems and standards "for ocean monitoring and flood warning purposes". At the GLOSS-GE-XIV Meeting in 2015, GLOSS agreed on a number of action items to be developed in the next two years. These were: 1. To explore mareogram digitisation applications, including NUNIEAU (more information available at: http://www.mediterranee.cerema.fr/logiciel-de-numerisation-des-enregistrements-r57.html) and other recent developments in scanning/digitisation software, such as IEDRO's Weather Wizards program, to see if they could be used via a browser. 2. To publicise sea level data archaeology and rescue by: • maintaining and regularly updating the Sea Level Data Archaeology page on the GLOSS website • strengthening links to the GLOSS data centres and data rescue organisations e.g. linking to IEDRO, ACRE, RDA • restarting the sea level data rescue blog with monthly posts. 3. Investigate sources of funding for data archaeology and rescue projects. 4. Propose "Guidelines" for rescuing sea level data. These action items will aid the discovery, scanning, digitising and quality control

Near-future carbon dioxide levels alter fish behaviour by interfering with neurotransmitter function

Science.gov (United States)

Nilsson, Göran E.; Dixson, Danielle L.; Domenici, Paolo; McCormick, Mark I.; Sørensen, Christina; Watson, Sue-Ann; Munday, Philip L.

2012-03-01

Predicted future CO2 levels have been found to alter sensory responses and behaviour of marine fishes. Changes include increased boldness and activity, loss of behavioural lateralization, altered auditory preferences and impaired olfactory function. Impaired olfactory function makes larval fish attracted to odours they normally avoid, including ones from predators and unfavourable habitats. These behavioural alterations have significant effects on mortality that may have far-reaching implications for population replenishment, community structure and ecosystem function. However, the underlying mechanism linking high CO2 to these diverse responses has been unknown. Here we show that abnormal olfactory preferences and loss of behavioural lateralization exhibited by two species of larval coral reef fish exposed to high CO2 can be rapidly and effectively reversed by treatment with an antagonist of the GABA-A receptor. GABA-A is a major neurotransmitter receptor in the vertebrate brain. Thus, our results indicate that high CO2 interferes with neurotransmitter function, a hitherto unrecognized threat to marine populations and ecosystems. Given the ubiquity and conserved function of GABA-A receptors, we predict that rising CO2 levels could cause sensory and behavioural impairment in a wide range of marine species, especially those that tightly control their acid-base balance through regulatory changes in HCO3- and Cl- levels.

Greenland plays a large role in the gloomy picture painted of probable future sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Hanna, Edward

2012-12-01

Goelzer et al (2012) paint a portentous picture of what is likely to happen to the global sea-level over the next 1000 years. This worrying assessment is based on our current best understanding of how the world's giant ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, as well as a quarter of a million smaller glacial ice masses, and the ocean collectively respond to ongoing climate change. Theirs is a state of the science study that integrates these key contributors of sea-level change based on the latest models and current understanding, and an integrated Earth systems modelling approach termed LOVECLIM. As they point out in their study, only a handful of global climate models to date—i.e. models that are used to make predictions of future climate change—incorporate dynamically (fully) coupled ice-sheet models. According to the scenarios presented by Goelzer et al (2012), we could see between 2.1 and 6.8 m of global sea-level rise by 3000 AD, compared with 'just' 1.1 m if the atmosphere is stabilised at 2000 CO2 levels. Much, up to some 4 m, of this contribution comes from increased melting and mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, which is several times more sensitive than the Antarctic ice sheet to warming temperatures in these simulations. Interestingly, dynamical ice mass losses through iceberg calving become increasingly less significant for Greenland as the ice sheet retreats further inland during the 1000 yr runs (Sole et al 2008). The latest modelling studies show that around a half, perhaps more, of the recent Greenland mass losses (Barletta et al 2012, Rignot et al 2011) are already through increased melt and runoff (Hanna et al 2008, 2012, van den Broeke et al 2009); note also the recent (summer 2012) record surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet (Nghiem et al 2012) caused by atmospheric forcing (Overland et al 2012) and the potential of such events to impact on ice flow (Bartholomew et al 2011). By contrast, the greatest sea-level rise reported for

THEORETICAL ANALYSIS STUDY OF FORMATION OF FUTURE LEGAL LAWYERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eugene Stepanovich Shevlakov

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The article deals with topical issues of formation of legal consciousness of future lawyers in high school. Obtained kinds of legal consciousness of future lawyers, determined its structure. Dedicated components of justice are mutually reinforcing, and provide an opportunity for further development of the personality of the future specialist, their personal growth.The purpose: to carry out theoretical analysis of the problem of formation of legal consciousness of future lawyers.The novelty is based. On the analysis of theoretical appro-aches of pedagogy, psychology, law, the notion of «lawfulness of the future of the law student», which is regarded as a form of social consciousness, which is a set of legal views and feelings, expressing the attitude to the law and legal phenomena that have regulatory in character and which includes know-ledge of legal phenomena and their evaluation from the point of view of fairness and justice, formed in the process of studying in the University.Results: this article analyzes different approaches to understanding the content and essence of the concept of legal consciousness of the legal profession. Define the types and structure of legal consciousness of future lawyers.

Habitat heterogeneity of hadal trenches: Considerations and implications for future studies

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Heather A.; Jamieson, Alan J.

2018-02-01

The hadal zone largely comprises a series of subduction trenches that do not form part of the continental shelf-slope rise to abyssal plain continuum. Instead they form geographically isolated clusters of deep-sea (6000-11,000 m water depth) environments. There is a growing realization in hadal science that ecological patterns and processes are not driven solely by responses to hydrostatic pressure, with comparable levels of habitat heterogeneity as observed in other marine biozones. Furthermore, this heterogeneity can be expressed at multiple scales from inter-trench levels (degrees of geographical isolation, and biochemical province), to intra-trench levels (variation between trench flanks and axis), topographical features within the trench interior (sedimentary basins, ridges, escarpments, 'deeps', seamounts) to the substrate of the trench floor (seabed-sediment composition, mass movement deposits, bedrock outcrop). Using best available bathymetry data combined with the largest lander-derived imaging dataset that spans the full depth range of three hadal trenches (including adjacent slopes); the Mariana, Kermadec and New Hebrides trenches, the topographic variability, fine-scale habitat heterogeneity and distribution of seabed sediments of these three trenches have been assessed for the first time. As well as serving as the first descriptive study of habitat heterogeneity at hadal depths, this study also provides guidance for future hadal sampling campaigns taking into account geographic isolation, total trench particulate organic matter flux, maximum water depth and area.

Disposal Options for Low and Intermediate-Level Radioactive Waste: Comparative Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdellatif, M.M.

2013-01-01

This study presents the status of current disposal options for Low and Intermediate- Level Radioactive Waste (LILRW) generated in different countries and outlines the potential for future disposal option/s of these wastes in Egypt. Since approaches used in other countries may provide useful lessons for managing Egyptian radioactive wastes. This study was based on data for19 countries repositories and we focused on 6 countries, which considered as leaders in the field of disposal of rad waste. Several countries have plans for repositories which are sufficiently advanced that it was based on their own of their extensive experience with nuclear power generation and with constructing and operating LLRW disposal facilities. On the other hand, our programme for site selection and host rock characterization for low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal is under study. We are preparing our criteria for selecting a national repository for LIL rad waste.

Mental health issues from rising sea level in a remote coastal region of the Solomon Islands: current and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Asugeni, James; MacLaren, David; Massey, Peter D; Speare, Rick

2015-12-01

There is little published research about mental health and climate change in the Pacific, including Solomon Islands. Solomon Islands has one of the highest rates of sea-level rise globally. The aim of this research was to document mental health issues related to sea-level rise for people in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. A cross-sectional study was carried out in six low-lying villages in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. The researcher travelled to villages by dugout canoe. In addition to quantitative, closed-ended questions, open-ended questions with villagers explored individual and community responses to rising sea level. Of 60 people asked, 57 completed the questionnaire. Of these, 90% reported having seen a change in the weather patterns. Nearly all participants reported that sea-level rise is affecting them and their family and is causing fear and worry on a personal and community level. Four themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: experience of physical impacts of climate change; worry about the future; adaptation to climate change; government response needed. Given predictions of ongoing sea-level rise in the Pacific it is essential that more research is conducted to further understand the human impact of climate change for small island states which will inform local, provincial and national-level mental health responses. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Perceptions of vulnerability to a future outbreak: a study of horse managers affected by the first Australian equine influenza outbreak

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background A growing body of work shows the benefits of applying social cognitive behavioural theory to investigate infection control and biosecurity practices. Protection motivation theory has been used to predict protective health behaviours. The theory outlines that a perception of a lack of vulnerability to a disease contributes to a reduced threat appraisal, which results in poorer motivation, and is linked to poorer compliance with advised health protective behaviours. This study, conducted following the first-ever outbreak of equine influenza in Australia in 2007, identified factors associated with horse managers’ perceived vulnerability to a future equine influenza outbreak. Results Of the 200 respondents, 31.9% perceived themselves to be very vulnerable, 36.6% vulnerable and 31.4% not vulnerable to a future outbreak of equine influenza. Multivariable logistic regression modelling revealed that managers involved in horse racing and those on rural horse premises perceived themselves to have low levels of vulnerability. Managers of horse premises that experienced infection in their horses in 2007 and those seeking infection control information from specific sources reported increased levels of perceived vulnerability to a future outbreak. Conclusion Different groups across the horse industry perceived differing levels of vulnerability to a future outbreak. Increased vulnerability contributes to favourable infection control behaviour and hence these findings are important for understanding uptake of recommended infection control measures. Future biosecurity communication strategies should be delivered through information sources suitable for the horse racing and rural sectors. PMID:23902718

Perceptions of vulnerability to a future outbreak: a study of horse managers affected by the first Australian equine influenza outbreak.

Science.gov (United States)

Schemann, Kathrin; Firestone, Simon M; Taylor, Melanie R; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Ward, Michael P; Dhand, Navneet K

2013-07-31

A growing body of work shows the benefits of applying social cognitive behavioural theory to investigate infection control and biosecurity practices. Protection motivation theory has been used to predict protective health behaviours. The theory outlines that a perception of a lack of vulnerability to a disease contributes to a reduced threat appraisal, which results in poorer motivation, and is linked to poorer compliance with advised health protective behaviours. This study, conducted following the first-ever outbreak of equine influenza in Australia in 2007, identified factors associated with horse managers' perceived vulnerability to a future equine influenza outbreak. Of the 200 respondents, 31.9% perceived themselves to be very vulnerable, 36.6% vulnerable and 31.4% not vulnerable to a future outbreak of equine influenza. Multivariable logistic regression modelling revealed that managers involved in horse racing and those on rural horse premises perceived themselves to have low levels of vulnerability. Managers of horse premises that experienced infection in their horses in 2007 and those seeking infection control information from specific sources reported increased levels of perceived vulnerability to a future outbreak. Different groups across the horse industry perceived differing levels of vulnerability to a future outbreak. Increased vulnerability contributes to favourable infection control behaviour and hence these findings are important for understanding uptake of recommended infection control measures. Future biosecurity communication strategies should be delivered through information sources suitable for the horse racing and rural sectors.

EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF FORMING A PROFESSIONAL IMAGE OF THE FUTURE PUBLIC RELATIONS SPECIALIST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lydia Mikhailovna Semenova

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the organization of research work on forming professional image of the future public relations specialist. The purposes of the work were to study components of students’ image, to test the concept of a professional image of the specialist, and also to process and evaluate the results. The author has presented three phases of experimental research: statement, formative and evaluative. As a result, a positive trend of forming a professional image was found. The conceptual model of forming a professional image of the future experts tested in the course of experiment has shown to be highly effective, while new methods of training (training, workshops, panel discussions, action games, etc. have substantially improved the level of development of a professional image. The results can be used in the training and retraining of specialists of higher education and people whose profession related to communications.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-7-48

Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

Real cases study through computer applications for futures Agricultural Engineers

Science.gov (United States)

Moratiel, R.; Durán, J. M.; Tarquis, A. M.

2010-05-01

One of the huge concerns on the higher engineer education is the lag of real cases study that the future professionals need in the work and corporation market. This concern was reflected in Bologna higher education system including recommendations in this respect. The knowhow as why this or other methodology is one of the keys to resolve this problem. In the last courses given in Department of Crop Production, at the Agronomy Engineer School of Madrid (Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos, UPM) we have developed more than one hundred applications in Microsoft Excel®. Our aim was to show different real scenarios which the future Agronomic Engineers can be found in their professional life and with items related to crop production field. In order to achieve our target, each application in Excel presents a file text in which is explained the theoretical concepts and the objectives, as well as some resources used from Excel syntax. In this way, the student can understand and use of such application, even they can modify and customize it for a real case presented in their context and/or master project. This electronic monograph gives an answer to the need to manage data in several real scenarios showed in lectures, calculus resolution, information analysis and manage worksheets in a professional and student level.

Volcanic harzards studies tailored to future populations and facilities: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keating, Gordon N.; Perry, Frank V.; Harrington, Charles; Krier, Don; Valentine, Greg A.; Gaffney, Edward; Cline, Mike

2004-01-01

The evaluation of impacts of potential volcanic eruptions on populations and facilities far in the future may involve detailed volcanological studies that differ from traditional hazards analyses. The proximity of Quaternary volcanoes to a proposed repository for disposal of the USA's high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has required in-depth study of probability and consequences of basaltic igneous activity. Because of the underground nature of the repository, evaluation of the potential effects of dike intrusion and interaction with the waste packages stored in underground tunnels (dnfts) as well as effects of eruption and ash dispersal have been important. These studies include analyses of dike propagation, dike-drift intersection, flow of magma into dnfts, heat and volcanic gas migration, atmospheric dispersal of tephra, and redistribution of waste-contaminated tephra by surficial processes. Unlike traditional volcanic hazards studies that focus on impacts on housing, transportation, communications, etc. (to name a small subset), the igneous consequences studies at Yucca Mountain have focused on evaluation of igneous impacts on nuclear waste packages and implications for enhanced radioactive dose on a hypothetical future ((le) 10000 yrs) local population. Potential exposure pathways include groundwater (affected by in-situ degradation of waste packages by igneous heat and corrosion) and inhalation, ingestion, and external exposure due to deposition and redistribution of waste-contaminated tephra

Significance of the fuel cycle aspects in CEA studies on future nuclear systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carre, F.; Thomas, J.B.; Boidron, M.

2001-01-01

Nuclear energy has unique assets to meet the requirements for a sustainable development in terms of economic competitiveness, environmental friendliness and natural resources saving. Future nuclear system studies conducted by the CEA aim at investigating and developing promising technologies for the medium and the long term for reactors, fuels and the fuel cycle to make nuclear power eligible as one of the major energy sources of the sustainable development. It also aims at maintaining at the best possible level the expertise and the technologies that the CEA will be able to bring to future national and international projects likely to meet market needs in the next decades, which are still uncertain both in terms of performances and time scale. Progress for future nuclear systems is principally sought in the following areas: reinforced economic competitiveness against other available electricity generation means, with a special emphasis put on reducing the investment cost; enhanced safety, especially through an increased resistance to core damages in case of severe accident, and whenever possible by dedicated strategies to exclude core melting; cleanliness through minimising the production of long lived radioactive waste; resource saving through an optimum utilisation of the available resources of fissile and fertile materials; enhanced resistance to proliferation risks; potentialities for other applications than electricity production. (author)

Identification of high-level functional/system requirements for future civil transports

Science.gov (United States)

Swink, Jay R.; Goins, Richard T.

1992-01-01

In order to accommodate the rapid growth in commercial aviation throughout the remainder of this century, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is faced with a formidable challenge to upgrade and/or modernize the National Airspace System (NAS) without compromising safety or efficiency. A recurring theme in both the Aviation System Capital Investment Plan (CIP), which has replaced the NAS Plan, and the new FAA Plan for Research, Engineering, and Development (RE&D) rely on the application of new technologies and a greater use of automation. Identifying the high-level functional and system impacts of such modernization efforts on future civil transport operational requirements, particularly in terms of cockpit functionality and information transfer, was the primary objective of this project. The FAA planning documents for the NAS of the 2005 era and beyond were surveyed; major aircraft functional capabilities and system components required for such an operating environment were identified. A hierarchical structured analysis of the information processing and flows emanating from such functional/system components were conducted and the results documented in graphical form depicting the relationships between functions and systems.

Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

2010-01-01

County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

Future Directions for Business Education: A Delphi Study

Science.gov (United States)

Kesten, Cyril A.; Lambrecht, Judith J.

2010-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to synthesize perceptions from the field about current issues and to propose future directions for the field of business education. Method: A modified three-stage Delphi study was carried out with business educators who attended national conferences and/or belonged to national professional organizations.…

Measurement Error Correction Formula for Cluster-Level Group Differences in Cluster Randomized and Observational Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Sun-Joo; Preacher, Kristopher J.

2016-01-01

Multilevel modeling (MLM) is frequently used to detect cluster-level group differences in cluster randomized trial and observational studies. Group differences on the outcomes (posttest scores) are detected by controlling for the covariate (pretest scores) as a proxy variable for unobserved factors that predict future attributes. The pretest and…

A simulation study of capacity utilization to predict future capacity for manufacturing system sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Rimo, Tan Hauw Sen; Chai Tin, Ong

2017-12-01

Capacity utilization (CU) measurement is an important task in a manufacturing system, especially in make-to-order (MTO) type manufacturing system with product customization, in predicting capacity to meet future demand. A stochastic discrete-event simulation is developed using ARENA software to determine CU and capacity gap (CG) in short run production function. This study focused on machinery breakdown and product defective rate as random variables in the simulation. The study found that the manufacturing system run in 68.01% CU and 31.99% CG. It is revealed that machinery breakdown and product defective rate have a direct relationship with CU. By improving product defective rate into zero defect, manufacturing system can improve CU up to 73.56% and CG decrease to 26.44%. While improving machinery breakdown into zero breakdowns will improve CU up to 93.99% and the CG decrease to 6.01%. This study helps operation level to study CU using “what-if” analysis in order to meet future demand in more practical and easier method by using simulation approach. Further study is recommended by including other random variables that affect CU to make the simulation closer with the real-life situation for a better decision.

Organic saffron position in the future household consumption basket and effective structures (Case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmadreza Shahpouri

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Considering the importance of planning at the production level, it is necessary to identify the consumer's future behavior towards organic products. Thus, using seemingly unrelated regression and data of 2012 for 200 households in mashhad, in the present study we have tried to determine the future share of these products in the household's basket and also survey the effective factors on this share in organic saffron. The results showed that households in mashhad tend to allocate an average of 34 percent of their future consumption basket for organic saffron. The regression results illustrated that while children below 10 years old in the households, willingness to pay the price differential compared with non-organic products and organic labeling positively affected the willingness to pay for organic products, environmental concerns variables created by non-organic products had a negative effect on their willingness. Considering the research results, helping to raise people's awareness about food through different educational and advertising approaches, providing a mechanism to label organic products and assessing the strengths and weaknesses of producing and distributing the organic products are provided as suggestions.

Nitrates in drinking water and methemoglobin levels in pregnancy: a longitudinal study.

Science.gov (United States)

Manassaram, Deana M; Backer, Lorraine C; Messing, Rita; Fleming, Lora E; Luke, Barbara; Monteilh, Carolyn P

2010-10-14

Private water systems are more likely to have nitrate levels above the maximum contaminant level (MCL). Pregnant women are considered vulnerable to the effects of exposure to high levels of nitrates in drinking water due to their altered physiological states. The level of methemoglobin in the blood is the biomarker often used in research for assessing exposure to nitrates. The objective of this study was to assess methemoglobin levels and examine how various factors affected methemoglobin levels during pregnancy. We also examined whether differences in water use practices existed among pregnant women based on household drinking water source of private vs. public supply. A longitudinal study of 357 pregnant women was conducted. Longitudinal regression models were used to examine changes and predictors of the change in methemoglobin levels over the period of gestation. Pregnant women showed a decrease in methemoglobin levels with increasing gestation although nitrate intake from tap water among pregnant women around 36 weeks gestation (β = 0.046, p = 0.986). Four women had tap water nitrate levels above the MCL of 10 mg/L. At enrollment, a greater proportion of women who reported using water treatment devices were private wells users (66%) compared to public system users (46%) (p nitrate from water (p nitrate levels primarily below the MCL for drinking water were unlikely to show methemoglobin levels above the physiologic normal. Water use practices such as the use of treatment devices to remove nitrates varied according to water source and should be considered in the assessment of exposure to nitrates in future studies.

Marketing Study on Secondary Metal Futures Might be Finished Within This Year

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2015-01-01

Commissioned by Shanghai Futures Exchange,China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Secondary Metal Branch is carrying out"Study on development and marketing of secondary nonferrous metal product futures variety"(ADC12 marketing feasibility study),according

Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-11-15

This WEC study is bottom-up regional view of our energy future focusing on policies to ensure energy sustainability. Experts from five regions and all energy domains worked together to produce four different scenarios to predict how differing levels of cooperation and government involvement would affect the energy future of the world.

Corporate social responsibility of future radiology professionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Sandra K; Collins, Kevin S

2011-01-01

Plagued by difficult economic times, many radiology managers may find themselves faced with ethical dilemmas surrounding ongoing organizational pressures to maintain high levels of productivity with restricted resources. This often times tests the level of moral resilience and corporate social consciousness of even the most experienced radiology professionals. A study was conducted to determine what Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) orientation and viewpoint future radiology professionals may have. The results of the study indicate that these study participants may initially consider patient care more important than profit maximization. Study results indicate that these specific future radiology professionals will not need laws, legal sanctions, and intensified rules to force them to act ethically. However,they may need ongoing training as to the necessity of profit maximization if they seek the highest quality of care possible for their patients.

THE YOUTH PERSPECTIVE MANAGER FUTURE CHALLENGES AHEAD TO PROPOSED BY ORGANIZATIONAL STUDIES: A PRELIMINARY DIAGNOSIS AND ITS FUTURE PERFORMANCE

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Wesley Antonio Gonçalves

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The study aimed to diagnose as young students of management define and realize the factors related to man and the fear of freedom to develop their future assignments subjective as future managers and their subsequent execution. To achieve the proposal, we employed the qualitative research method using script focused in order to observe the ontology interview. Respondents showed be used in your academic life conceptual inclinations towards various definitions found in the literature which litigiou the assumptions of the authors in relation to human and professional activities they will face as future managers, even taking into account the different decades (time. Keywords: Perspectives of human beings. The fear of freedom. Student management. People management. Organizational Studies.

Incorporating future change into current conservation planning: Evaluating tidal saline wetland migration along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios

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Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Osland, Michael J.

2015-11-02

In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, quantified the potential for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. Our analyses focused exclusively on tidal saline wetlands (that is, mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats), and we combined these diverse tidal saline wetland ecosystems into a single grouping, “tidal saline wetland.” Collectively, our approach and findings can provide useful information for scientists and environmental planners working to develop future-focused adaptation strategies for conserving coastal landscapes and the ecosystem goods and services provided by tidal saline wetlands. The primary product of this work is a public dataset that identifies locations where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is expected to occur under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. In addition to identifying areas where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is possible because of the absence of barriers, these data also identify locations where landward migration of these wetlands could be prevented by barriers associated with current urbanization, future urbanization, and levees.

Study on the effects of near-future ocean acidification on marine yeasts: a microcosm approach

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, Evamaria; Wichels, Antje; Erler, René; Gerdts, Gunnar

2013-12-01

Marine yeasts play an important role in biodegradation and nutrient cycling and are often associated with marine flora and fauna. They show maximum growth at pH levels lower than present-day seawater pH. Thus, contrary to many other marine organisms, they may actually profit from ocean acidification. Hence, we conducted a microcosm study, incubating natural seawater from the North Sea at present-day pH (8.10) and two near-future pH levels (7.81 and 7.67). Yeasts were isolated from the initial seawater sample and after 2 and 4 weeks of incubation. Isolates were classified by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) and representative isolates were identified by partial sequencing of the large subunit rRNA gene. From the initial seawater sample, we predominantly isolated a yeast-like filamentous fungus related to Aureobasidium pullulans, Cryptococcus sp., Candida sake, and various cold-adapted yeasts. After incubation, we found more different yeast species at near-future pH levels than at present-day pH. Yeasts reacting to low pH were related to Leucosporidium scottii, Rhodotorula mucilaginosa, Cryptococcus sp., and Debaryomyces hansenii. Our results suggest that these yeasts will benefit from seawater pH reductions and give a first indication that the importance of yeasts will increase in a more acidic ocean.

A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Thorstad, Robert; Wolff, Phillip

2018-02-20

We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people's thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people's tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people's tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

Future extension of the Swedish repository for low and intermediate level waste (SFR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlsson, Jan

2006-01-01

The existing Swedish repository for low and intermediate level waste (SFR) is licensed for disposal of short-lived waste originated from operation and maintenance of Swedish nuclear power plants. The repository is foreseen to be extended to accommodate short-lived waste from the future decommissioning of the Nuclear Power Plants. Long-lived waste from operation, maintenance and eventually decommissioning will be stored some years before disposal in a geological repository. This repository can be build either as a further extension of the SFR facility or as a separate repository. This paper discusses the strategy of a step-wise extended repository where the extensions are performed during operation of the existing parts of the repository. It describes the process for licensing new parts of the repository (and re-license of the existing parts). (author)

A Pilot Study on Measuring Customer’s Satisfaction Level

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Vide Boltez

2013-01-01

Full Text Available RQ: Determine the level of customer satisfaction of a company’s products and services to obtain information on needed improvements.Purpose: The purpose of measuring customer’s satisfaction level is to obtain information directly from the final buyer that bought our product. The next step is to analyze the information obtained and to take the results into consideration to improve the working process in production and in other departments of the company.Method: The method used for the pilot study to measure customer satisfaction was a short questionnaire that was given to 10 customers of our product and 10 completed questionnaires were obtained.Results: The results showed the level of satisfaction of final buyers of roof tiles and roofs that the company has achieved through their products and services. The results facilitate the production, logistics, purchasing and sales department to obtain information on positive satisfaction levels and areas that need change. At the same time, the final buyer was identified (i.e., name, surname, address, and so forth, which up until now had not been.Organization: The organization will save time and money in the future, because it will continuously measure customer satisfaction to improve production and other departments in the organization towards creating satisfied customers.Society: Final buyers of roofs are, and will be, more satisfied with their decisions, because the organization carries out after-sales satisfaction levels.Originality: The research was original, because up to this date the organization has not conducted research in such a manner.Limitations: The pilot study used 10 completed questionnaires that represent a very small sample to make any generalizations.

Future Orientation, Social Support, and Psychological Adjustment among Left-behind Children in Rural China: A Longitudinal Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Shaobing; Li, Xiaoming; Lin, Danhua; Zhu, Maoling

2017-01-01

Existing research has found that parental migration may negatively impact the psychological adjustment of left-behind children. However, limited longitudinal research has examined if and how future orientation (individual protective factor) and social support (contextual protective factor) are associated with the indicators of psychological adjustment (i.e., life satisfaction, school satisfaction, happiness, and loneliness) of left-behind children. In the current longitudinal study, we examined the differences in psychological adjustment between left-behind children and non-left behind children (comparison children) in rural areas, and explored the protective roles of future orientation and social support on the immediate (cross-sectional effects) and subsequent (lagged effects) status of psychological adjustment for both groups of children, respectively. The sample included 897 rural children ( M age = 14.09, SD = 1.40) who participated in two waves of surveys across six months. Among the participants, 227 were left-behind children with two parents migrating, 176 were with one parent migrating, and 485 were comparison children. Results showed that, (1) left-behind children reported lower levels of life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness, as well as a higher level of loneliness in both waves; (2) After controlling for several demographics and characteristics of parental migration among left-behind children, future orientation significantly predicted life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness in both cross-sectional and longitudinal regression models, as well as loneliness in the longitudinal regression analysis. Social support predicted immediate life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness, as well as subsequent school satisfaction. Similar to left-behind children, comparison children who reported higher scores in future orientation, especially future expectation, were likely to have higher scores in most indicators of

Future Orientation, Social Support, and Psychological Adjustment among Left-behind Children in Rural China: A Longitudinal Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shaobing Su

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Existing research has found that parental migration may negatively impact the psychological adjustment of left-behind children. However, limited longitudinal research has examined if and how future orientation (individual protective factor and social support (contextual protective factor are associated with the indicators of psychological adjustment (i.e., life satisfaction, school satisfaction, happiness, and loneliness of left-behind children. In the current longitudinal study, we examined the differences in psychological adjustment between left-behind children and non-left behind children (comparison children in rural areas, and explored the protective roles of future orientation and social support on the immediate (cross-sectional effects and subsequent (lagged effects status of psychological adjustment for both groups of children, respectively. The sample included 897 rural children (Mage = 14.09, SD = 1.40 who participated in two waves of surveys across six months. Among the participants, 227 were left-behind children with two parents migrating, 176 were with one parent migrating, and 485 were comparison children. Results showed that, (1 left-behind children reported lower levels of life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness, as well as a higher level of loneliness in both waves; (2 After controlling for several demographics and characteristics of parental migration among left-behind children, future orientation significantly predicted life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness in both cross-sectional and longitudinal regression models, as well as loneliness in the longitudinal regression analysis. Social support predicted immediate life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness, as well as subsequent school satisfaction. Similar to left-behind children, comparison children who reported higher scores in future orientation, especially future expectation, were likely to have higher scores in most indicators of

Experimental study of rectenna coupling at low power level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Douyère, A; Alicalapa, F; Lan Sun Luk, J-D; Rivière, S

2013-01-01

The experimental results presented in this paper focus on the performance of a rectenna array by studying the effect of mutual coupling between two rectennas. The measurements in several planes of the space are investigated and used to help us to define the minimum distance for future rectenna arrays that can be used at a low power density level. The single element chosen for the array is composed of a rectifier circuit and a CSPA (Circular Slot Patch Antenna). This study shows that at a distance greater than 6cm (λ/2) between two rectennas in reception, we observe that the DC received voltage is constant in the Y plane, while in the X plane, the DC received voltage remains constant whatever the distance. We deduce that these rectennas are uncoupled in this case. We can consider each rectenna like an independent system.

Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie; Zhong, Shiyuan; Bian, Xindi; Doubler, Dana; Yu, Lejiang; Walters, Claudia

2017-07-10

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereas current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. The choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.

Analyzing extreme sea levels for broad-scale impact and adaptation studies

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A.

2017-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels (ESL), because increasing damage due to extreme events is one of the major consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) and climate change. Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future SLR; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact studies at various temporal and spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. Uncertainties in future SLR are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios and model ensembles. ESL distributions are then displaced vertically according to the SLR scenarios under the inherent assumption that we have perfect knowledge on the statistics of extremes. However, there is still a limited understanding of present-day ESL which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of storm surge water levels, and (2) statistical models used for determining present-day ESL exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for broad-scale flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored SLR uncertainties, we quantify, for the first time globally, key uncertainties in ESL estimates. We find that contemporary ESL uncertainties exceed those from SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century. Our results highlight the necessity to further improve our understanding of uncertainties in ESL estimates through (1) continued improvement of numerical and statistical models to simulate and analyze coastal water levels and (2) exploit the rich observational database and continue data archeology to obtain longer time series and remove model bias

Urban phenological studies – Past, present, future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

2015-01-01

Phenology is believed to be a suitable bio-indicator to track climate change. Based on the strong statistical association between phenology and temperature phenological observations provide an inexpensive means for the temporal and spatial analysis of the urban heat island. However, other environmental factors might also weaken this relationship. In addition, the investigation of urban phenology allows an estimation of future phenology from current information since cities with their amplified temperatures may serve as a proxy for future conditions. Nevertheless, the design of spatial compared to long-term studies might be influenced by different factors which should be taken into consideration when interpreting results from a specific study. In general, plants located in urban areas tend to flush and bloom earlier than in the countryside. What are the consequences of these urban–rural differences? This review will document existing findings on urban phenology and will highlight areas in which further research is needed. - Highlights: • Urban phenology can be used for the estimation of the urban heat island effect. • Confounding factors weaken the phenology–temperature relationship. • Urban phenology is useful as a proxy for climate change impacts on phenology. • Differences in the study design hinder the generalisation of one specific method. • Urban–rural variations in phenology affect vegetation, meteorology, human health. - Studies on urban phenology can be used to detect urban heat islands and to assess climate change impacts but it still remains important to adequately link spatial and long-term data

Survey Probability and Factors affecting Farmers Participation in Future and Option Markets Case Study: Cotton product in Gonbad kavos city

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. sakhi

2016-03-01

.5 respectively. Multinomial Logit model estimation results for the probability of participation in the future and option markets showed that variables of the level of education, farm ownership, cotton acreage, and non-farm income, work experience in agriculture, the index of willing to use new technologies, the index of risk perception cotton market and risk aversion index are statistically significant. The variables of farm ownership, non-farm income and work experience in agriculture, showed negative effects and the other variables showed positive effects on the probability of participation in these markets. The results are in line with previous studies. Conclusion: The purpose of the current study was to look at the possibility of farmers participations in the future and option markets that presented as a means to reduce the cotton prices volatility. The dependent variable for this purpose, have four categories: participation in both market, and future market, participation in option market and participation in both future and option markets. Multinomial Legit Regression Model was used for data analysis. Results indicated that during the period of 2014 -2015 and the sample under study 35% of cotton growers unwilling to participate in the future and option markets. Farmers willingness to participate in the future and option market was 19% and %21.5, respectively. Multinomial Legit model estimation results for the probability of participation in the future and option markets showed that the variables of the level of education, farm ownership, cotton acreage, and non-farm income, work experience in agriculture, the index of willing to use new technologies, the index of risk perception cotton market and risk aversion index were statistically significant. The variables of farm ownership, non-farm income and work experience in agriculture, showed negative effects and the other variables positive effects on the probability of participation in these markets. The results are in line

Intrapersonal positive future thinking predicts repeat suicide attempts in hospital-treated suicide attempters.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Rory C; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J Mark G

2015-02-01

Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking-suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression-as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking-suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Stereotyping at the undergraduate level revealed during interprofessional learning between future doctors and biomedical scientists.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewitt, Moira S; Ehrenborg, Ewa; Scheja, Max; Brauner, Annelie

2010-01-01

Interprofessional education (IPE) involving undergraduate health professionals is expected to promote collaboration in their later careers. The role of IPE between doctors and biomedical scientists has not been explored at the undergraduate level. Our aim was to introduce IPE sessions for medical and biomedical students in order to identify the benefits and barriers to these groups learning together. Medical and biomedical students together discussed laboratory results, relevant literature, and ideas for developing new diagnostic tools. The programme was evaluated with questionnaires and interviews. While there was general support for the idea of IPE, medical and biomedical students responded differently. Biomedical students were more critical, wanted more explicit learning objectives and felt that their professional role was often misunderstood. The medical students were more enthusiastic but regarded the way the biomedical students communicated concerns about their perceived role as a barrier to effective interprofessional learning. We conclude that stereotyping, which can impede effective collaborations between doctors and biomedical scientists, is already present at the undergraduate level and may be a barrier to IPE. Effective learning opportunities should be supported at the curriculum level and be designed to specifically enable a broad appreciation of each other's future professional roles.

Past, present and future aspects of studies of heavy ion radiotherapy. 2. Future view of clinical studies of heavy ion radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsujii, Hirohiko; Kamata, Tadashi

2007-01-01

The purpose of clinical studies of heavy ion radiotherapy (HIR, using carbon beam) in National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS) is, in treatment of cancers, to elucidate its potential and significance for establishing the methodology for curing the disease safely and reliably to further spread the therapy. Here is presented a future view of clinical studies of HIR based on the past results and along authorities' medical policy. NIRS has treated 3,100 or more cancer patients in about 50 clinical trials from the start of HIR in 1994. In those studies, curing the intractable malignancies has become possible in a short term of therapy, and the irradiating machine is being miniaturized (actually under construction in Gunma Univ.). At the end of 2006, about 4,000 patients have been treated with HIR globally: the impact of NIRS HIR. There are such future HIR plans as the promotion of clinical trials, development of irradiation technology, promotion and efficient practice as an advanced frontier medicare, imaging diagnosis for the aim of treatment, biological studies, and comparative studies to elucidate the usefulness. Cooperation of NIRS, manufacturers and authorities will make HIR a more useful, less burdensome mean to treat patients with more intractable cancers. (R.T.)

A study of statistics anxiety levels of graduate dental hygiene students.

Science.gov (United States)

Welch, Paul S; Jacks, Mary E; Smiley, Lynn A; Walden, Carolyn E; Clark, William D; Nguyen, Carol A

2015-02-01

In light of increased emphasis on evidence-based practice in the profession of dental hygiene, it is important that today's dental hygienist comprehend statistical measures to fully understand research articles, and thereby apply scientific evidence to practice. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate statistics anxiety among graduate dental hygiene students in the U.S. A web-based self-report, anonymous survey was emailed to directors of 17 MSDH programs in the U.S. with a request to distribute to graduate students. The survey collected data on statistics anxiety, sociodemographic characteristics and evidence-based practice. Statistic anxiety was assessed using the Statistical Anxiety Rating Scale. Study significance level was α=0.05. Only 8 of the 17 invited programs participated in the study. Statistical Anxiety Rating Scale data revealed graduate dental hygiene students experience low to moderate levels of statistics anxiety. Specifically, the level of anxiety on the Interpretation Anxiety factor indicated this population could struggle with making sense of scientific research. A decisive majority (92%) of students indicated statistics is essential for evidence-based practice and should be a required course for all dental hygienists. This study served to identify statistics anxiety in a previously unexplored population. The findings should be useful in both theory building and in practical applications. Furthermore, the results can be used to direct future research. Copyright © 2015 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

Present and future development at Ganil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferme, J.

1988-01-01

GANIL has been in operation since January 1983. During this period beams from Carbon to Xenon have been available continuously for physics. There is now a demand to extend the ion range up to uranium, and to increase the beam intensity above the present level of about 3 microamperes with light ions. The corresponding modifications of the machine have been studied and will be made in the near future. Progress in ion sources, beam diagnostics, computer control is reported. Speculative considerations on the distant future are discussed

Determinants of maternal and umbilical blood lead levels: a cross-sectional study, Mosul, Iraq

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Al-Jomard Raghad A

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The populations who are most sensitive to lead exposure from various sources are pregnant women and their newborns. Aiming to explore the presence of correlation between maternal and cord blood lead levels and to identify potential predictors that may influence both levels, the present study has been conducted. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted covering 350 full terms maternal-newborns pairs from Mosul maternity hospitals. Data were obtained directly from women just before delivery by the use of a detailed questionnaire form. Maternal and umbilical blood lead levels were estimated using LEADCARE® Blood Lead Testing System and Kits. Results A positive significant correlation was found between maternal and cord blood lead values (r = 0.856, p = 0.001. By backward stepwise logistic regression analysis the followings emerged as significant potential predictors of high maternal blood lead: low parity, smoking and Hb level Conclusion Study results have provided baseline data needed to be transformed to decision makers to implement measures to eliminate lead from the environment and protect future generation from its deleterious effects.

Future Circular Collider study week 2017

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

The annual meetings of the worldwide Future Circular Collider study (FCC) are major international events that review the progress in every domain which is relevant to develop feasible concepts for a next generation frontier particle accelerate based high-energy physics research infrastructure. This 3rd meeting is jointly organised by CERN and DESY. It is also the annual meeting of the EuroCirCol EC Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Action project. Previous events took place in Washington and Rome. In 2017 the FCC Week will take place in Berlin, Germany between May 29 and June 2.

Neural correlates of self-appraisals in the near and distant future: an event-related potential study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yangmei Luo

Full Text Available To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now. Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events coming to mind and felt more psychologically connected to the near future self than the distant future self. Electrophysiological results demonstrated that negative trait adjectives elicited more positive ERP deflections than did positive trait adjectives in the interval between 550 and 800 ms (late positive component within the near future self condition. However, within the same interval, there were no significant differences between negative and positive traits adjectives in the distant future self condition. The results suggest that negative emotional processing in future self-appraisals is modulated by temporal distance, consistent with predictions of construal level theory.

The future of event-level information repositories, indexing, and selection in ATLAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barberis, D; Cranshaw, J; Malon, D; Gemmeren, P Van; Zhang, Q; Dimitrov, G; Nairz, A; Sorokoletov, R; Doherty, T; Quilty, D; Gallas, E J; Hrivnac, J; Nowak, M

2014-01-01

ATLAS maintains a rich corpus of event-by-event information that provides a global view of the billions of events the collaboration has measured or simulated, along with sufficient auxiliary information to navigate to and retrieve data for any event at any production processing stage. This unique resource has been employed for a range of purposes, from monitoring, statistics, anomaly detection, and integrity checking, to event picking, subset selection, and sample extraction. Recent years of data-taking provide a foundation for assessment of how this resource has and has not been used in practice, of the uses for which it should be optimized, of how it should be deployed and provisioned for scalability to future data volumes, and of the areas in which enhancements to functionality would be most valuable. This paper describes how ATLAS event-level information repositories and selection infrastructure are evolving in light of this experience, and in view of their expected roles both in wide-area event delivery services and in an evolving ATLAS analysis model in which the importance of efficient selective access to data can only grow.

Perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their future labour market participation - an eight-year follow-up study.

Science.gov (United States)

Trolle, Nanna; Lund, Thomas; Winding, Trine Nohr; Labriola, Merete

2017-03-31

Labour market participation among young adults is essential for their future socioeconomic status and health. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their labour market participation 8 years later as well as investigate any potential gender differences. A cohort of 1640 young adults born in 1983 completed a questionnaire in 2004 in which perceived stress was measured. The cohort was followed in a register of social benefits for 12 months in 2011-2012 and was categorized into active and passive labour market participation. Logistic regression was used to analyse the association between perceived stress and future labour market participation, taking into account effects of potential confounders. The analyses were stratified by gender. The effects of perceived stress on future labour market participation differed significantly among young women and young men (p = 0.029). For young men, higher levels of perceived stress reduced the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for socioeconomic factors, self-rated health and copings strategies (p = 0.045). For young women, higher levels of perceived stress increased the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for the same potential confounding factors, although unlike the men, this association was not statistically significant (p = 0.335). The observed gender difference has important implications from a public health point of view. Healthcare professionals might need to differentiate between the genders in terms of health communication, research and when developing preventive strategies.

A methodology for the preliminary scoping of future changes in ecosystem services, with an illustration from the future midwestern landscapes study

Science.gov (United States)

The product is a white paper defining a methodology for the preliminary scoping of future changes in ecosystem services, with an Illustration from the Future Midwestern Landscapes Study. The scoping method develops a hierarchy of relevant societal values, identifies the ecosyste...

A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan C. Maloney

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The consequences of future sea-level rise for coastal communities are a priority concern arising from anthropogenic climate change. Here, previously published methods are scaled up in order to undertake a first pass assessment of exposure to hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. Sea-level rise scenarios ranging from +0.50 to +0.82 m by 2100 increased estimates of the area exposed to inundation by 4–13% and 7–20%, respectively, among different Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity categories. Potential applications of these hazard layers for vulnerability assessment are demonstrated with two contrasting case studies: potential exposure of current energy infrastructure in the U.S. Southeast and exposure of current and future housing along both the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Estimates of the number of Southeast electricity generation facilities potentially exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 69 to 291 for category 1 and category 5 storms, respectively. Sea-level rise increased the number of exposed facilities by 6–60%, depending on the sea-level rise scenario and the intensity of the hurricane under consideration. Meanwhile, estimates of the number of housing units currently exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 4.1 to 9.4 million for category 1 and category 4 storms, respectively, while exposure for category 5 storms was estimated at 7.1 million due to the absence of landfalling category 5 hurricanes in the New England region. Housing exposure was projected to increase 83–230% by 2100 among different sea-level rise and housing scenarios, with the majority of this increase attributed to future housing development. These case studies highlight the utility of geospatial hazard information for national-scale coastal exposure or vulnerability assessment as well as the importance of future socioeconomic development in the assessment of coastal vulnerability.

Fit between Future Thinking and Future Orientation on Creative Imagination

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Fa-Chung

2012-01-01

The purpose of the current study is to investigate the impact of future thinking, and the fit between future thinking and future orientation on creative thinking. In Study 1, 83 undergraduates were randomly assigned to three groups: 50-year future thinking, 5-year future thinking, and the present-day thinking. First, the priming tasks, in which…

Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brunnabend, S. E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, Michael; Bal, Henri E.; Seinstra, Frank J.; van Werkhoven, Ben; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, Maarten

2017-01-01

An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and

FUTURE CIRCULAR COLLIDER LOGISTICS STUDY

CERN Document Server

Beißert, Ulrike; Kuhlmann, Gerd; Nettsträter, Andreas; Prasse, Christian; Wohlfahrt, Andreas

2018-01-01

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at the European Organization for Nuclear Research CERN in Geneva is the largest and most powerful collider in the world. CERN and its research and experimental infrastructure is not only a focus for the science community but is also very much in the public eye. With the Future Circular Collider (FCC) Study, CERN has begun to examine the feasibility of a new underground accelerator ring with a length of approximately 100 kilometres. Logistics is of great importance for the construction, assembly and operation of the FCC. During the planning, construction and assembly of the LHC, logistics proved to be one of the key factors. As the FCC is even larger than the LHC, logistics will also become more and more significant. This report therefore shows new concepts, methods and analytics for logistics, supply chain and transport concepts as part of the FCC study. This report deals with three different logistics aspects for the planning and construction phase of FCC: 1. A discussion of d...

Professional training of future specialists with the use of information technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Виктор Семенович Корнилов

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with implementation of information technologies within different levels of professional training of the future specialists at A. Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University. Information technologies enable the future specialists to engage in online exchanges and it gives great good opportunity in learning the subject efficiently; thereby expanding their study and learning community during the classroom activity. The results obtained by the use of the information technologies show improvements in professional training of the future specialists in teaching foreign language. The use of information technology in teaching is increasing, which should lead to a significant improvement of the training quality of future specialists. Improvements also are observed in the experimental groups of higher levels, which indicates the efficiency of the use of information technologies in the professional training of future specialists.

Assessing the Knowledge Level, Attitudes, Risky Behaviors and Preventive Practices on Sexually Transmitted Diseases among University Students as Future Healthcare Providers in the Central Zone of Malaysia: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Folasayo, Adigun Temiloluwa; Oluwasegun, Afolayan John; Samsudin, Suhailah; Saudi, Siti Nor Sakinah; Osman, Malina; Hamat, Rukman Awang

2017-02-08

This study was done to assess the knowledge, attitudes, risky behaviors and preventive practices related to sexually-transmitted diseases (STDs) among health and non-health sciences university students as future healthcare providers in Malaysia. A total of 700 health and non-health sciences university students (255 male; 445 female) aged between 17 and 30 years were surveyed by using a self-administered questionnaire. The majority (86.6%) had heard of STDs, and 50.4% knew STDs could present without symptoms. HIV remains the best known STD (83.6%) by the students, while chlamydia (26%) and trichomoniasis (21.0%) were rarely known. Gender, age group, educational level and faculty type were strongly associated with knowledge level ( p -values students, 66.7% and 18% had sexual intercourse with multiple partners and commercial sex workers, while 17.4% and 9.4% took alcohol and drugs before having sex, respectively. By logistic regression analysis, students aged 24-30 years old (an odds ratio (AOR) = 0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.377-0.859) and faculty type (AOR = 5.69, 95% CI = 4.019-8.057) were the significant predictors for the knowledge level. Knowledge on the non-HIV causes of STDs is still lacking, and the risky behavior practiced by the sexually-active students in this study is alarming. There is a need to revisit the existing STD education curriculum in both schools and universities so that appropriate intervention on STDs can be implemented.

Simulation of coastal floodings during a typhoon event with the consideration of future sea-level rises.

Science.gov (United States)

Shu-Huei, Jhang; Chih-Chung, Wen; Dong-Jiing, Doong; Cheng-Han, Tsai

2017-04-01

Taiwan is an Island in the western Pacific Ocean and experienced more than 3 typhoons in a year. Typhoons bring intense rainfall, high waves, and storm surges, which often resulted in coastal flooding. The flooding can be aggravated by the sea level rise due to the global warming, which may subject Taiwan's coastal areas to more serious damage in the future than present. The objectives of this study are to investigate the flooding caused by typhoons in the Annan District, Tainan, a city on the southwest coast of Taiwan by numerical simulations, considering the effects of sea-level rises according to the level suggested by the 5th Assessment Report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The simulations were carried out by using MIKE21 HD (a hydrodynamic model) and MIKE21 SW (a spectral wave model). In our simulation, we used an intense typhoon, named Soudelor, as our base typhoon, which made its landfall on the east coast of Taiwan in the summer of 2015, traveled through the width of the island, and exited the island to the north of Tainan. The reasons we pick this typhoon are that it passed near our objective area, wind field data for this typhoon are available, and we have well documented coastal wave and water level measurements during the passage of Typhoon Soudelor. We firstly used ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) wind field data to reconstruct typhoon waves and storm surges for this typhoon by using coupled MIKE21 SW and MIKE21 HD in a regional model. The resultant simulated wave height and sea-level height matched satisfactorily with the measured data. The wave height and storm surge calculated by the regional model provided the boundary conditions for our fine-grid domain. Then different sea-level rises suggested by the IPCC were incorporated into the fine-grid model. Since river discharge due to intense rainfall has also to be considered for coastal flooding, our fine-grid models

A social work study on different factors influencing youth on hope for the future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akram Fakhri Fakhramini

2013-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present an empirical study to study the effects of religious duties, communicating with parents; leisure, media planning, city planning, socio-economic and education on different factors influencing the future of youth. The proposed study of this paper designs a questionnaire and distributes it among 400 people aged 18 to 29 and the results are investigated using Pearson correlation ratios. The results of our investigation indicate that there are some positive and meaningful relationship between religious duties and their hope for future (r=44%, a positive and meaningful relationship between leisure and hope for future (31%. In addition, there is a relatively positive and somewhat meaningful relationship between city planning and hope for future (15% and finally, a small but positive relationship between media planning and hope for the future (6%. However, there is no evidence belief that there is any meaningful relationship between education and hope for the future.

Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woodard, J.D.; Egelkraut, T.M.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

2005-01-01

Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity

Translating National Level Forest Service Goals to Local Level Land Management: Carbon Sequestration

Science.gov (United States)

McNulty, S.; Treasure, E.

2017-12-01

The USDA Forest Service has many national level policies related to multiple use management. However, translating national policy to stand level forest management can be difficult. As an example of how a national policy can be put into action, we examined three case studies in which a desired future condition is evaluated at the national, region and local scale. We chose to use carbon sequestration as the desired future condition because climate change has become a major area of concern during the last decade. Several studies have determined that the 193 million acres of US national forest land currently sequester 11% to 15% of the total carbon emitted as a nation. This paper provides a framework by which national scale strategies for maintaining or enhancing forest carbon sequestration is translated through regional considerations and local constraints in adaptive management practices. Although this framework used the carbon sequestration as a case study, this framework could be used with other national level priorities such as the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) or the Endangered Species Act (ESA).

The first symposium of Research Center for Radiation Safety, NIRS. Perspective of future studies of radiation safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimo, Michikuni

2002-03-01

This paper summarizes presentations given in the title symposium, held at the Conference Room of National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS) on November 29 and 30, 2001. Contained are Introductory remarks: Basic presentations concerning exposure dose in man; Environmental levels of radiation and radioactivity, environmental radon level and exposure dose, and radiation levels in the specific environment (like in the aircraft): Special lecture (biological effects given by space environment) concerning various needs for studies of radiation safety; Requirement for open investigations, from the view of utilization, research and development of atomic energy, from the clinical aspect, and from the epidemiological aspect: Special lecture (safety in utilization of atomic energy and radiation-Activities of Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan) concerning present state and perspective of studies of radiation safety; Safety of radiation and studies of biological effects of radiation-perspective, and radiation protection and radiation safety studies: Studies in the Research Center for Radiation Safety; Summary of studies in the center, studies of the biological effects of neutron beam, carcinogenesis by radiation and living environmental factors-complicated effects, and studies of hereditary effects: Panel discussion (future direction of studies of radiation safety for the purpose of the center's direction): and concluding remarks. (N.I.)

Coupling of sea level and tidal range changes, with implications for future water levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Devlin, Adam T; Jay, David A; Talke, Stefan A; Zaron, Edward D; Pan, Jiayi; Lin, Hui

2017-12-05

Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this affect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that the variability in HAT is significantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fluctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric. At Hong Kong, the increase in tides significantly amplifies the risk caused by sea-level rise. Regions of tidal decrease and/or amplification highlight the non-linear response to sea-level variations, with the potential to amplify or mitigate against the increased flood risk caused by sea-level rise. Overall, our analysis suggests that in many regions, local flood level determinations should consider the joint effects of non-stationary tides and mean sea level (MSL) at multiple time scales.

Future prospects of antiarrhythmic treatment based on experimental studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janse, M. J.

1995-01-01

Based on recent experimental studies, a number of speculations about future developments are made regarding the treatment of atrial fibrillation, the problem of proarrhythmia in patients with heart failure, and the treatment of ventricular tachycardia developing during the first 6 weeks following

Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

Science.gov (United States)

de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2017-08-01

The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

Perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their future labour market participation – an eight-year follow-up study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nanna Trolle

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Labour market participation among young adults is essential for their future socioeconomic status and health. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between perceived stress among 20–21 year-olds and their labour market participation 8 years later as well as investigate any potential gender differences. Methods A cohort of 1640 young adults born in 1983 completed a questionnaire in 2004 in which perceived stress was measured. The cohort was followed in a register of social benefits for 12 months in 2011–2012 and was categorized into active and passive labour market participation. Logistic regression was used to analyse the association between perceived stress and future labour market participation, taking into account effects of potential confounders. The analyses were stratified by gender. Results The effects of perceived stress on future labour market participation differed significantly among young women and young men (p = 0.029. For young men, higher levels of perceived stress reduced the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for socioeconomic factors, self-rated health and copings strategies (p = 0.045. For young women, higher levels of perceived stress increased the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for the same potential confounding factors, although unlike the men, this association was not statistically significant (p = 0.335. Conclusion The observed gender difference has important implications from a public health point of view. Healthcare professionals might need to differentiate between the genders in terms of health communication, research and when developing preventive strategies.

Second-hand smoking and carboxyhemoglobin levels in children: a prospective observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Yee, Branden E; Ahmed, Mohammed I; Brugge, Doug; Farrell, Maureen; Lozada, Gustavo; Idupaganthi, Raghu; Schumann, Roman

2010-01-01

To establish baseline noninvasive carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) levels in children and determine the influence of exposure to environmental sources of carbon monoxide (CO), especially environmental tobacco smoke, on such levels. Second-hand smoking may be a risk factor for adverse outcomes following anesthesia and surgery in children (1) and may potentially be preventable. Parents and their children between the ages of 1-12 were enrolled on the day of elective surgery. The preoperative COHb levels of the children were assessed noninvasively using a CO-Oximeter (Radical-7 Rainbow SET Pulse CO-Oximeter; Masimo, Irvine, CA, USA). The parents were asked to complete an environmental air-quality questionnaire. The COHb levels were tabulated and correlated with responses to the survey in aggregate analysis. Statistical analyses were performed using the nonparametric Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests. P < 0.05 was statistically significant. Two hundred children with their parents were enrolled. Children exposed to parental smoking had higher COHb levels than the children of nonsmoking controls. Higher COHb values were seen in the youngest children, ages 1-2, exposed to parental cigarette smoke. However, these trends did not reach statistical significance, and confidence intervals were wide. This study revealed interesting trends of COHb levels in children presenting for anesthesia and surgery. However, the COHb levels measured in our patients were close to the error margin of the device used in our study. An expected improvement in measurement technology may allow screening children for potential pulmonary perioperative risk factors in the future.

Leadership meta-competences for the future world of work: an explorative study in the retail industry

OpenAIRE

2008-01-01

To achieve this purpose a leadership meta-competence model, based on levels of work theory, was developed for the future world of work. This model was firstly validated by senior managers in the retail industry. Subsequently a questionnaire assessing the perceived importance of these competencies currently and in the future was designed. This questionnaire was completed by 101 managers from various South African retail industries. The resultant data was analysed and the results indicated that...

Kiel Canal: Past and future threats for shipping resulting from precipitation, wind surge and sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Ganske, Anette; Hüttl-Kabus, Sabine; Möller, Jens; Schade, Nils; Heinrich, Hartmut; Tinz, Birger

2017-04-01

The Kiel Canal is the most frequented artificial waterway in the world. It connects the North Sea and the Hamburg Harbor with the Baltic Sea and has a length of about 100 km. The Canal receives its water from the upper catchment of the river Eider. Discharge from the Canal towards the North Sea is via the sluices at Brunsbüttel (90%) into river Elbe and into the Baltic Sea via the sluices at Kiel-Holtenau. A risk of closure of the Canal occurs when high precipitation in the catchment meets high water levels in the river Elbe and/or the Baltic preventing the discharge of excess Canal water. Future sea level rise jointly with other effects such as possibly increasing wind surge and precipitation will close the gap between the inner and outer water levels, so that someday the outside levels will surmount the inner one. The German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) tasked its internal Network of Experts to run a case study on the evolution of critical water levels in order to estimate risks and vulnerabilities for adaptation measures. First step of the investigation is a search for factors or combination of factors responsible for closures in the past. Candidates are factors such as higher water levels at low tides, high precipitation events on land, soil moisture and human factors like preventive water management measures. Second step will be the search for the natural criteria in climate projections. Here we report on the results of the first step of the case study with a focus on the exit towards the North Sea. There, discharge is possible only during low tide. Presently still sufficient difference in height exists between the levels in the Canal and the river Elbe allowing for a free flow of excess Canal water. Shipping is ceased when levels in the Canal surpass safety limits due to high precipitation events in the catchment jointly with high outer water levels. We used atmospheric data from ERA-Interim reanalysis instead of gauge data

Adaptive false memory: Imagining future scenarios increases false memories in the DRM paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Dewhurst, Stephen A; Anderson, Rachel J; Grace, Lydia; van Esch, Lotte

2016-10-01

Previous research has shown that rating words for their relevance to a future scenario enhances memory for those words. The current study investigated the effect of future thinking on false memory using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) procedure. In Experiment 1, participants rated words from 6 DRM lists for relevance to a past or future event (with or without planning) or in terms of pleasantness. In a surprise recall test, levels of correct recall did not vary between the rating tasks, but the future rating conditions led to significantly higher levels of false recall than the past and pleasantness conditions did. Experiment 2 found that future rating led to higher levels of false recognition than did past and pleasantness ratings but did not affect correct recognition. The effect in false recognition was, however, eliminated when DRM items were presented in random order. Participants in Experiment 3 were presented with both DRM lists and lists of unrelated words. Future rating increased levels of false recognition for DRM lures but did not affect correct recognition for DRM or unrelated lists. The findings are discussed in terms of the view that false memories can be associated with adaptive memory functions.

Future orientation: a construct with implications for adolescent health and wellbeing.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Sarah R Lindstrom; Blum, Robert W; Cheng, Tina L

2014-01-01

Multidisciplinary research has supported a relationship between adolescent future orientation (the ability to set future goals and plans) and positive adolescent health and development outcomes. Many preventive strategies - for example, contracepting, exercising - are based on taking actions in the present to avoid unwanted or negative future consequences. However, research has been hampered by unclear and often divergent conceptualizations of the future orientation construct. The present paper aims to integrate previous conceptual and operational definitions into a conceptual framework that can inform programs and services for youth and efforts to evaluate future orientation as a target for intervention. Recommendations focus on furthering the study of the construct through measurement synthesis as well as studies of the normative development of future orientation. Also suggested is the need to pair environmental intervention strategies with individual level efforts to improve future orientation in order to maximize benefits.

The language of future-thought: an fMRI study of embodiment and tense processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilead, Michael; Liberman, Nira; Maril, Anat

2013-01-15

The ability to comprehend and represent the temporal properties of an occurrence is a crucial aspect of human language and cognition. Despite advances in neurolinguistic research into semantic processing, surprisingly little is known regarding the mechanisms which support the comprehension of temporal semantics. We used fMRI to investigate neural activity associated with processing of concrete and abstract sentences across the three temporal categories: past, present, and future. Theories of embodied cognition predict that concreteness-related activity would be evident in sensory and motor areas regardless of tense. Contrastingly, relying upon construal level theory we hypothesized that: (1) the neural markers associated with concrete language processing would appear for past and present tense sentences, but not for future sentences; (2) future tense sentences would activate intention-processing areas. Consistent with our first prediction, the results showed that activation in the parahippocampal gyrus differentiated between concrete and abstract sentences for past and present tense sentences, but not for future sentences. Not consistent with our second prediction, future tense sentences did not activate most of the regions that are implicated in the processing of intentions, but only activated the vmPFC. We discuss the implications of the current results to theories of embodied cognition and tense semantics. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Metacognitive deficits predict future levels of negative symptoms in schizophrenia controlling for neurocognition, affect recognition, and self-expectation of goal attainment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lysaker, Paul H; Kukla, Marina; Dubreucq, Julien; Gumley, Andrew; McLeod, Hamish; Vohs, Jenifer L; Buck, Kelly D; Minor, Kyle S; Luther, Lauren; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Belanger, Elizabeth A; Popolo, Raffaele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

2015-10-01

The recalcitrance of negative symptoms in the face of pharmacologic treatment has spurred interest in understanding the psychological factors that contribute to their formation and persistence. Accordingly, this study investigated whether deficits in metacognition, or the ability to form integrated ideas about oneself, others, and the world, prospectively predicted levels of negative symptoms independent of deficits in neurocognition, affect recognition and defeatist beliefs. Participants were 53 adults with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Prior to entry into a rehabilitation program, all participants completed concurrent assessments of metacognition with the Metacognitive Assessment Scale-Abbreviated, negative symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, neurocognition with the MATRICS battery, affect recognition with the Bell Lysaker Emotion Recognition Task, and one form of defeatist beliefs with the Recovery Assessment Scale. Negative symptoms were then reassessed one week, 9weeks, and 17weeks after entry into the program. A mixed effects regression model revealed that after controlling for baseline negative symptoms, a general index of neurocognition, defeatist beliefs and capacity for affect recognition, lower levels of metacognition predicted higher levels of negative symptoms across all subsequent time points. Poorer metacognition was able to predict later levels of elevated negative symptoms even after controlling for initial levels of negative symptoms. Results may suggest that metacognitive deficits are a risk factor for elevated levels of negative symptoms in the future. Clinical implications are also discussed. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Scenarios for future agriculture in Finland: a Delphi study among agri-food sector stakeholders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. RIKKONEN

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This article presents alternative scenarios for future agriculture in Finland up to 2025. These scenarios are the results of a large Delphi study carried out among Finnish agri-food sector stakeholders. The Delphi panel members gave their future view on desirable and probable futures. From these two dimensions, three scenarios were elaborated through the future images – the subjective future path and the importance analysis. The scenarios represent a technology optimistic “day-dream agriculture”, a probable future as “industrialised agriculture” and an undesirable future path as “drifting agriculture”. Two mini-scenarios are also presented. They are based on a discontinuity event as an unexpected impact of climate change and an analogy event as an ecological breakdown due to the expansive animal disease epidemics. In both mini-scenarios, the directions of storylines are dramatically changed. The scenarios support strategic planning introducing not only one forecast but alternative outcomes as a basis for future strategy and decisions. In this study the scenarios were constructed to address the opportunities as a desired vision and also the threats as to an undesirable future in the agricultural sector. These results bring to the table a Finnish agri-food expert community view of the future directions of relevant key issues in the agricultural policy agenda.;

Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

Science.gov (United States)

Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

2015-09-01

Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

Age, gender and deterrability: Are younger male drivers more likely to discount the future?

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, James; Kaye, Sherrie-Anne; Truelove, Verity; Davey, Jeremy

2017-07-01

Utilizing the Classical Deterrence theory and Stafford and Warr's (1993) reconceptualized model of deterrence, the current study examined whether age, gender, and discounting the future tendencies influence perceptions of being apprehended for speeding offences. Licensed motorists (N=700; 57% female) in Queensland (Australia) were recruited to complete a self-report questionnaire that measured perceptual deterrence, speeding related behaviors and discounting the future tendencies. Data were analyzed utilizing descriptive, bivariate and multivariate regressions. Significant (albeit weak) positive correlations were found between age and perceptions of apprehension certainty. Males were significantly more likely to report higher incidences of speeding (including while avoiding detection) compared to females. In contrast, females were more likely to perceive high levels of apprehension certainty and consider impending penalties to be more severe. At a multivariate level, discounting the future tendencies (in addition to being male, reporting lower levels of perceptual severity and swiftness, and more instances of punishment avoidance) were predictive of lower perceptual certainty levels. This study is one of the first to reveal that being male and having a tendency to discount the consequences of the future may directly influence drivers' perceptual deterrence levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1st Annual Meeting of the Future Circular Collider study

CERN Document Server

2015-01-01

This first Annual Meeting of the Future Circular Collider study is an important milestone to conclude the first, exploratory phase, leading to the identification of the baseline for the further study. Organized as an IEEE conference, it will provide the opportunity for re-enforcing the cohesion of the community and to catalyse cross-fertilization within the FCC study.

Procrastination, consideration of future consequences, and episodic future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Rebetez, Marie My Lien; Barsics, Catherine; Rochat, Lucien; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-05-01

Despite the intrinsic temporal nature of procrastination, little research has examined the link between this form of self-regulatory failure and the consideration of future consequences, and no study has addressed the link between procrastination and episodic future thinking. The aim of the present study was to explore these relationships. Participants were asked to project themselves into possible future events and to rate the amount of sensory-perceptual details and autonoetic consciousness associated with their representations. They were also asked to complete questionnaires that assessed procrastination, the consideration of future consequences, and negative affect. Results showed that both the consideration of future consequences and episodic future thinking were associated with procrastination, and in particular with procrastination-related decision making abilities and procrastination-related motivational dispositions, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future Climate Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James Houseworth

2001-01-01

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B

Future Climate Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

James Houseworth

2001-10-12

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical

Predictors of future fasting and 2-h post-OGTT plasma glucose levels in middle-aged men and women-the Inter99 study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faerch, K; Vaag, A; Witte, D R

2009-01-01

PG levels. Among the anthropometric variables, large waist circumference was the strongest predictor of increased FPG levels in men, whereas high body mass index (BMI) was the strongest predictor of increased FPG levels in women. In both men and women, BMI and waist circumference were equally strong...... elevations of FPG levels were different from those predicting elevations of 2hPG levels in men and women. METHODS: We used baseline and 5-year follow-up data from middle-aged men and women with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) at baseline in the Danish population-based Inter99 study (n = 3164). Anthropometric...... and non-anthropometric baseline predictors of the 5-year FPG and 2hPG levels were estimated in linear regression models stratified by gender. RESULTS: In men, but not in women, smoking and family history of diabetes predicted increased FPG levels, whereas high physical activity predicted a decline in 2h...

Coastal flooding in Denmark – future outlook

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, C.; Knudsen, P.; Andersen, O. B.

2014-01-01

Water loading from all directions due to river discharge, precipitation, groundwater and the sea state (i.e. mean and extreme water levels) need to be carefully considered when dealing with flooding hazards at the coast. Flooding hazard and risk mapping are major topics in low-lying coastal are- ...... this knowledge together to enable a practice-oriented methodology that combines their effects and future sea extremes in hazard and risk mapping and climate change adaptation schemes in Denmark......- as before even considering the adverse effects of climate change and sea level rise (SLR). From an assessment of Danish sea extremes from historical evidence, tide gauge series, and space measurements, we discuss the current and future hazards, exposure, and vulnerability to flooding along the diverse......, land-use, protection measures a.o. that must be taken into account in order to evaluate current and future flooding hazards and management options. We provide examples from Danish case-studies underlining the necessity of including these factors and we outline an interdisciplinary approach to bring...

Integrative study of the mean sea level and its components

CERN Document Server

Champollion, Nicolas; Paul, Frank; Benveniste, Jérôme

2017-01-01

This volume presents the most recent results of global mean sea level variations over the satellite altimetry era (starting in the early 1990s) and associated contributions, such as glaciers and ice sheets mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and land water storage changes. Sea level is one of the best indicators of global climate changes as it integrates the response of several components of the climate system to external forcing factors (including anthropogenic forcing) and internal climate variability. Providing long, accurate records of the sea level at global and regional scales and of the various components causing sea level changes is of crucial importance to improve our understanding of climate processes at work and to validate the climate models used for future projections. The Climate Change Initiative project of the European Space Agency has provided a first attempt to produce consistent and continuous space-based records for several climate parameters observable from space, among them sea level. Th...

The Impacts of 3-D Earth Structure on GIA-Induced Crustal Deformation and Future Sea-Level Change in the Antarctic

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, E. M.; Hay, C.; Latychev, K.; Gomez, N. A.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2017-12-01

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models used to constrain the extent of past ice sheets and viscoelastic Earth structure, or to correct geodetic and geological observables for ice age effects, generally only consider depth-dependent variations in Earth viscosity and lithospheric structure. A et al. [2013] argued that 3-D Earth structure could impact GIA observables in Antarctica, but concluded that the presence of such structure contributes less to GIA uncertainty than do differences in Antarctic deglaciation histories. New seismic and geological evidence, however, indicates the Antarctic is underlain by complex, high amplitude variability in viscoelastic structure, including a low viscosity zone (LVZ) under West Antarctica. Hay et al. [2016] showed that sea-level fingerprints of modern melting calculated using such Earth models differ from those based on elastic or 1-D viscoelastic Earth models within decades of melting. Our investigation is motivated by two questions: (1) How does 3-D Earth structure, especially this LVZ, impact observations of GIA-induced crustal deformation associated with the last deglaciation? (2) How will 3-D Earth structure affect predictions of future sea-level rise in Antarctica? We compute the gravitationally self-consistent sea level, uplift, and gravity changes using the finite volume treatment of Latychev et al. [2005]. We consider four viscoelastic Earth models: a global 1-D model; a regional, West Antarctic-like 1-D model; a 3-D model where the lithospheric thickness varies laterally; and a 3-D model where both viscosity and lithospheric thickness vary laterally. For our Last Glacial Maximum to present investigations we employ ICE6g [Peltier et al., 2015]. For our present-future investigations we consider a melt scenario consistent with GRACE satellite gravity derived solutions [Harig et al., 2015]. Our calculations indicate that predictions of crustal deformations due to both GIA and ongoing melting are strongly influenced by 3-D

The study of the price of gold futures based on heterogeneous investors' overconfidence

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wei Jiang; Pupu Luan; Chunpeng Yang

2014-01-01

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to research and analyze the price of gold futures based on heterogeneous investors' overconfidence.Design/methodology/approach-This paper divides the traders of gold futures market into two kinds:the speculators and arbitrageurs,and then constructs a market equilibrium model of futures pricing to analyze the behaviors of the two kinds of traders with overconfidence.After getting the decision-making function,the market equilibrium futures price is attained on the condition of market clearing.Then,this paper analyzes how the overconfidence impacts on futures price,volatility of the price of gold futures and the effects on individual utility.Findings-Under different market conditions,the overconfidence psychological impacts of heterogeneous investor on the price and volatility of futures are different,sometimes completely opposite.Originality/value-In the past literature,the relationships between overconfidence and the price or volatility are positive;however,the study shows that sometimes it is positive,and sometimes it is negative

Cycling environmental perception in Beijing – A study of residents' attitudes towards future cycling and car purchasing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Chunli; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick; Olafsson, Anton Stahl

2018-01-01

distances up to 2 km are positively linked to future cycling prospects. Non-car owners' attitude to future car ownership is strongly linked to socio-demographic status - low education and low income level groups seems to be most unlikely to take up driving in the future. To encourage people to cycle more...... and drive less, policy should direct efforts to promoting the clarity of cycling space on the street and strengthen pro-cycling policies. Attention should also be given to stabilizing the current travel modes of non-car users, including promoting the image of cycling, improving the service of walking...

Buildings of the Future Scoping Study: A Framework for Vision Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Na [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Goins, John D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-02-01

The Buildings of the Future Scoping Study, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office, seeks to develop a vision for what U.S. mainstream commercial and residential buildings could become in 100 years. This effort is not intended to predict the future or develop a specific building design solution. Rather, it will explore future building attributes and offer possible pathways of future development. Whether we achieve a more sustainable built environment depends not just on technologies themselves, but on how effectively we envision the future and integrate these technologies in a balanced way that generates economic, social, and environmental value. A clear, compelling vision of future buildings will attract the right strategies, inspire innovation, and motivate action. This project will create a cross-disciplinary forum of thought leaders to share their views. The collective views will be integrated into a future building vision and published in September 2015. This report presents a research framework for the vision development effort based on a literature survey and gap analysis. This document has four objectives. First, it defines the project scope. Next, it identifies gaps in the existing visions and goals for buildings and discusses the possible reasons why some visions did not work out as hoped. Third, it proposes a framework to address those gaps in the vision development. Finally, it presents a plan for a series of panel discussions and interviews to explore a vision that mitigates problems with past building paradigms while addressing key areas that will affect buildings going forward.

The AGE-RAGE axis in an Arab population: The United Arab Emirates Healthy Futures (UAEHFS pilot study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claire K. Inman

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Aims: The transformation of the United Arab Emirates (UAE from a semi-nomadic to a high income society has been accompanied by increasing rates of obesity and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. We examined if the AGE-RAGE (receptor for advanced glycation endproducts axis is associated with obesity and diabetes mellitus in the pilot phase of the UAE Healthy Futures Study (UAEHFS. Methods: 517 Emirati subjects were enrolled and plasma/serum levels of AGE, carboxy methyl lysine (CML-AGE, soluble (sRAGE and endogenous secretory (esRAGE were measured along with weight, height, waist and hip circumference (WC/HC, blood pressure, HbA1c, Vitamin D levels and routine chemistries. The relationship between the AGE-RAGE axis and obesity and diabetes mellitus was tested using proportional odds models and linear regression. Results: After covariate adjustment, AGE levels were significantly associated with diabetes status. Levels of sRAGE and esRAGE were associated with BMI and levels of sRAGE were associated with WC/HC. Conclusions: The AGE-RAGE axis is associated with diabetes status and obesity in this Arab population. Prospective serial analysis of this axis may identify predictive biomarkers of obesity and cardiometabolic dysfunction in the UAEHFS. Keywords: Advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs, Receptor for AGE (RAGE, Cohort study, Diabetes mellitus, Obesity

Legacy and future of Kilauea's geodetic studies

Science.gov (United States)

Montgomery-Brown, E. D.; Miklius, A.

2011-12-01

Because of its extensive and detailed history of geodetic measurements, Kilauea is one of the best-studied if not also best-understood volcanic systems in the world. Hawaiian volcanoes have a long history of deformation observations. These observations range from native legends of Pele's underground travels, through initial measurements made by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, and finally to current ground-based and satellite observations. Many questions still remain, relating to Kilauea's dynamics, where geodetic measurements could offer fundamental insights. For example, new geodetic experiments could lead to a better understanding of the degree of magmatic and tectonic interaction, the geometries of faults at depth, the extent of offshore deformation, and the magmatic plumbing system. While it is possible to design many experiments to address these issues, we focus on three deformation targets where geodetic improvements, including finer sampling in space and time, could yield significant advancements toward understanding Kilauea's dynamics. First, by scrutinizing spatially-dense space-borne geodetic data for signs of upper east rift zone deformation and incorporating gravity and seismic data in a high resolution tomographic model, the hydraulic connection between Kilauea's summit and the rift zone could be imaged, which would provide insight into the pathways that transport magma out to the rift zones. Second, a combination of geodetic and seismic data could be used to determine the nature of possible relationships and interactions between the Hilina fault system and Kilauea's basal decollement. Such a study would have important implications for assessments of future earthquake and sector collapse hazards. Lastly, by adding seafloor geodetic measurements and seismic data to the current geodetic network on Kilauea, we could delimit the offshore extent of transient and episodic decollement deformation. In addition to multidisciplinary approaches, future geodetic

A mathematical model of past, present and future shore level displacement in Fennoscandia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paasse, T. [Sveriges Geologiska Undersoekning, Goeteborg (Sweden)

1997-12-01

Shore level displacement in Fennoscandia is mainly due to two interactive vertical movements, glacio-isostatic uplift and eustatic sea level rise. A recent investigation of the lake-tilting phenomenon has made it possible to discern the course of glacio-isostatic. As a consequence an iteration process to estimate glacio-isostatic uplift and eustatic rise using empirical data of the shore level displacement has been started. The model indicates that there are two mechanisms involved in glacio-isostatic uplift, one slow and the other fast. The main uplift, still in progress, acts slowly. Arctan functions have proved to be suitable tools for describing slow glacio-isostatic uplift. The time of maximal uplift rate is isochronous, meaning that slow uplift occurred simultaneously in all Fennoscandia in an interactive movement. For slow uplift there is a relationship between the rate of decline and the crustal thickness. In areas with greater crustal thickness the rate of decline of the glacio-isostatic recovery is lower than in areas with thinner crust. The fast mechanism gave rise to a crustal subsidence which started about 12 500 BP. After about 10 300 BP, in the early Holocene, the subsidence was restored by a fast uplift. Normal distribution functions have been used for calculating the fast mechanism. The mantle material exhibits plastic behaviour. When the mantle encounters short-lived stresses the material behaves like an elastic solid but in response to long-term stresses it will flow. The slow mechanism can be linked to viscous flow and as a response to long-term stresses. The fast mechanism is probably the response to a short-lived stress. This stress could have been caused by renewed ice loading, due to a self-triggered redistribution of the ice load during deglaciation. Future development regarding glacio-isostatic uplift, eustasy and shore level displacement is predicted in Fennoscandia using the results from the modelling. Predictions are based on the

Future reservoir management under climate change for the Mississippi River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asnaashari, Ahmad; Gharabaghi, Bahram; McBean, Edward A.; Kunjikutty, Sobhalatha; Lehman, Paul; Wade, Winston

2010-01-01

This paper is part of an ongoing research project designed to evaluate the effect of climate change on reservoir operation policies in the Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority. The study used the results from a first paper, including projected daily temperature and precipitation, for future streamflow calculation. This paper presented the development, calibration and validation of a rainfall-runoff NAM model for the Mississippi River watershed. The calibrated Mike11/NAM model was fed with predicted climatic data to generate long term future streamflow in the basin. Forecast flows were run in a Mike 11/HD model to estimate the corresponding lake levels. The storages and flows at Shabomeka Lake, Mazinaw Lake and Marble Lake were simulated. The results showed that climate change is likely to have implications for reservoir operations in the Mississippi River watershed, which will include changed water level regimes due to modifications in the projected future streamflow hydrograph to meet desired lake levels.

Model shows future cut in U.S. ozone levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

A joint U.S. auto-oil industry research program says modeling shows that changing gasoline composition can reduce ozone levels for Los Angeles in 2010 and for New York City and Dallas-Fort Worth in 2005. The air quality modeling was based on vehicle emissions research data released late last year (OGJ, Dec. 24, 1990, p. 20). The effort is sponsored by the big three auto manufacturers and 14 oil companies. Sponsors the cars and small trucks account for about one third of ozone generated in the three cities studied but by 2005-10 will account for only 5-9%

The Future of Telecommuting

OpenAIRE

Handy, Susan; Mokhtarian, Patricia

1996-01-01

Interest in telecommuting is growing among workers, employers, transportation planners, communities, the telecommunications industry, and others. But actual levels of telecommuting appear to be increasing slowly, although there is little reliable data on trends. The future of telecommuting depends on whether employers provide the opportunity to telecommute and whether workers take advantage of this opportunity; government policies can encourage both. This article addresses that future by outl...

The role of future time perspective in psychological contracts : A study among older workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bal, P. Matthijs; Jansen, Paul G. W.; van der Velde, Mandy E. G.; de Lange, Annet H.; Rousseau, Denise M.

Using a sample of post-retirement workers (N = 176), this study investigated the role of future time perspective (FTP) in psychological contracts. The study aimed to test: (i) whether future time perspective is related to employer psychological contract fulfillment and (ii) whether it moderates

The role of future time perspective in psychological contracts: a study among older workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bal, P.M.; Jansen, P.G.W.; van der Velde, M.E.G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/183262107; de Lange, A.H.; Rousseau, D.M.

2010-01-01

Using a sample of post-retirement workers (N = 176), this study investigated the role of future time perspective (FTP) in psychological contracts. The study aimed to test: (i) whether future time perspective is related to employer psychological contract fulfillment and (ii) whether it moderates

The role of future time perspective in psychological contracts. A study among older workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bal, P.M.; Jansen, P.G.W.; van der Velde, E.G.; de Lange, A.H.; Rousseau, D.M.

2010-01-01

Using a sample of post-retirement workers (N=176), this study investigated the role of future time perspective (FTP) in psychological contracts. The study aimed to test: (i) whether future time perspective is related to employer psychological contract fulfillment and (ii) whether it moderates

The role of future time perspective in psychological contracts: A study among older workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bal, P.M.; Jansen, P.G.W.; Velde, M.E.G. van der; Lange, A.H. de; Rousseau, D.M.

2010-01-01

Using a sample of post-retirement workers (N = 176), this study investigated the role of future time perspective (FTP) in psychological contracts. The study aimed to test: (i) whether future time perspective is related to employer psychological contract fulfillment and (ii) whether it moderates

TRADING ACTIVITY AND PRICES IN ENERGY FUTURES MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aysegul Ates

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to examine trading activity and the relationship between futures trading activity by trader type and energy price movements in three energy futures markets –natural gas, crude oil and heating oil. We find that the level of net positions of speculators are positively related to future returns and in contrast net positions of hedgers are negatively related to futures price changes in all three markets. The changes in net positions are relatively more informative compare to the level of net positions in predicting price changes in related markets.

Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

2017-12-01

Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

Future heat waves and surface ozone

Science.gov (United States)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Bates, Susan; Pendergrass, Angeline; Lombardozzi, Danica

2018-06-01

A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

Seismic studies for Fermilab future collider projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauh, J.; Shiltsev, V.

1997-11-01

Ground motion can cause significant beam emittance growth and orbit oscillations in large hadron colliders due to a vibration of numerous focusing magnets. Larger accelerator ring circumference leads to smaller revolution frequency and, e.g. for the Fermilab Very Large Hadron Collider(VLHC) 50-150 Hz vibrations are of particular interest as they are resonant with the beam betatron frequency. Seismic measurements at an existing large accelerator under operation can help to estimate the vibrations generated by the technical systems in future machines. Comparison of noisy and quiet microseismic conditions might be useful for proper choice of technical solutions for future colliders. This article presents results of wide-band seismic measurements at the Fermilab site, namely, in the tunnel of the Tevatron and on the surface nearby, and in two deep tunnels in the Illinois dolomite which is though to be a possible geological environment of the future accelerators

Future Circular Collider Study (FCC) kick-off meeting | 12-15 February

CERN Multimedia

2014-01-01

The kick-off meeting of the international "Future Circular Collider Study" (FCC) will take place in Geneva from 12 to 15 February 2014 at the University of Geneva, Unimail site. The programme and registration details can be found on the meeting's website. This meeting is the starting point of the five-year international "Future Circular Collider Study" (FCC). The main emphasis of the conceptual design study will be on a hadron collider with a centre-of-mass energy of the order of 100 TeV in a new tunnel with a 80-100 km circumference for the purposes of studying physics at the highest energies. The study will also include a lepton collider, as a potential intermediate step towards realisation of the hadron facility. Options for e-p scenarios will also be considered. The main purpose of this meeting is to discuss the study topics and to prepare international collaborations. The meeting is a public meeting with a registration deadline closing on Friday 31 Janua...

Connections Between Future Time Perspectives and Self-Regulated Learning for Mid-Year Engineering Students: A Multiple Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Chasmar, Justine

This dissertation presents multiple studies with the purpose of understanding the connections between undergraduate engineering students' motivations, specifically students' Future Time Perspectives (FTPs) and Self-Regulated Learning (SRL). FTP refers to the views students hold about the future and how their perceptions of current tasks are affected by these views. SRL connects the behaviors, metacognition, and motivation of students in their learning. The goals of this research project were to 1) qualitatively describe and document engineering students' SRL strategies, 2) examine interactions between engineering students' FTPs and SRL strategy use, and 3) explore goal-setting as a bridge between FTP and SRL. In an exploratory qualitative study with mid-year industrial engineering students to examine the SRL strategies used before and after an SRL intervention, results showed that students intended to use more SRL strategies than they attempted. However, students self-reported using new SRL strategies from the intervention. Students in this population also completed a survey and a single interview about FTP and SRL. Results showed perceptions of instrumentality of coursework and skills as motivation for using SRL strategies, and a varied use of SRL strategies for students with different FTPs. Overall, three types of student FTP were seen: students with a single realistic view of the future, conflicting ideal and realistic future views, or open views of the future. A sequential explanatory mixed methods study was conducted with mid-year students from multiple engineering majors. First a cluster analysis of survey results of FTP items compared to FTP interview responses was used for participant selection. Then a multiple case study was conducted with data collected through surveys, journal entries, course performance, and two interviews. Results showed that students with a well-defined FTP self-regulated in the present based on their varied perceptions of

WHERE WILL FUTURE AGRICULTURAL MARKETING INFORMATION COME FROM: NEW JERSEY PEACH MARKET - A CASE STUDY

OpenAIRE

Thatch, Daymon W.; Perkins, Frederick A.

1985-01-01

Researchers and decision makers are currently faced with a reduced supply of agricultural marketing information at both federal and state levels. Although a number of on-line computer informational sources are available to help fill this gap, the data are relatively expensive and often not available in the form or detail needed at the farm level. This paper examines expected future sources of agricultural information in the public, private and semi-public/private sectors. A working model of a...

The Role of Future Time Perspective in Psychological Contracts: A Study among Older Workers

Science.gov (United States)

Bal, P. Matthijs; Jansen, Paul G. W.; van der Velde, Mandy E. G.; de Lange, Annet H.; Rousseau, Denise M.

2010-01-01

Using a sample of post-retirement workers (N = 176), this study investigated the role of future time perspective (FTP) in psychological contracts. The study aimed to test: (i) whether future time perspective is related to employer psychological contract fulfillment and (ii) whether it moderates relations between psychological contract fulfillment…

The Future Role of Publishing Services in University Libraries

Science.gov (United States)

Walters, Tyler

2012-01-01

This study explores possible futures for university-based library publishing services (LPS) and uses scenario planning as its research method. The study posits that the major force in developing LPS is the level of funding from the host university, with the most uncertain factor being whether faculty will adopt LPS. The study participants…

Study Trade-Offs on Future European Expendable Launchers

OpenAIRE

Sippel, Martin; van Foreest, Arnold; Philip, Peter; Jäger, Markus

2009-01-01

The paper describes latest results of recent activities in Germany in the technical assessment of future European launcher architecture. In a joint effort of DLR-SART with German launcher indus-try a next generation upper-medium class expendable TSTO and options for new liquid fuel upper stages for the small VEGA-launcher are addressed. The WOTAN study has investigated fully cryogenic launchers as well as those with a combination of solid and cryogenic stages, fulfilling a requirement of a...

Evaporation from a temperate closed-basin lake and its impact on present, past, and future water level

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, K.; Griffis, T. J.; Baker, J. M.; Bolstad, P. V.; Erickson, M. D.; Lee, X.; Wood, J. D.; Hu, C.

2017-12-01

Lakes provide enormous economic, recreational, and aesthetic benefits to citizens. These ecosystem services may be adversely impacted by climate change. In the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA, many lakes have been at historic low levels and water augmentation strategies have been proposed to alleviate the problem. For example, the water level of White Bear Lake (WBL) declined 1.5 m during 2003-2013 for reasons that are not fully understood. This study examined current, past, and future lake evaporation to better understand how climate will impact the water balance of lakes within this region. Evaporation from WBL was measured from July 2014 to February 2017 using two eddy covariance (EC) systems to provide better constraints on the water budget and to investigate the impact of evaporation on lake level. The annual evaporation for years 2014 through 2016 were 559±22 mm, 779±81 mm, and 766±11 mm, respectively. The larger evaporation in 2015 and 2016 was caused by the combined effects of larger average daily evaporation and a longer ice-free season. The EC measurements were used to tune the Community Land Model 4 - Lake, Ice, Snow and Sediment Simulator (CLM4-LISSS) to estimate lake evaporation over the period 1979-2016. Retrospective analyses indicated that WBL evaporation increased by about 3.8 mm yr-1. Mass balance analysis implied that the lake level declines at WBL during 1986-1990 and 2003-2012 were mainly caused by the coupled low precipitation and high evaporation. Using a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), lake evaporation was modeled forward in time from 2017 to 2100. Annual evaporation is expected to increase by 1.4 mm yr-1 over this century, which is largely driven by lengthening ice-free periods. These changes in ice phenology and evaporation will have important implications for the regional water balance, and water management and water augmentation strategies that are being proposed for these Metropolitan

Attributions, future time perspective and career maturity in nursing undergraduates: correlational study design.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Cheng; Yang, Liu; Chen, Yuxia; Zou, Huijing; Su, Yonggang; Fan, Xiuzhen

2016-01-25

Career maturity is an important parameter as nursing undergraduates prepare for their future careers. However, little is known regarding the relationships between attributions, future time perspective and career maturity among nursing undergraduates. The purpose of this study was to investigate the degree of career maturity and its relationship with attributions and future time perspective. A cross-sectional survey was designed. This survey was administered to 431 Chinese nursing undergraduates. Independent-sample t-tests and one-way ANOVA were performed to examine the mean differences between categories of binary and categorical demographic characteristics, respectively. Pearson correlations and multiple linear regressions were used to test the relationships between attributions, future time perspective and career maturity. The degree of career maturity was moderate among nursing undergraduates and that internal attributions of academic achievement, future efficacy and future purpose consciousness were positively associated with career maturity (all p time perspective and to facilitate their transition from school to clinical practice.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-12-01

This report is the first in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. More specifically, the EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe.

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on global scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-01-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of mercury world-wide are presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the

Powering up the future : 2008 labour market information study : full report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

As a result of an aging labour force and a diminishing supply of trained and educated young workers, Canada's electricity sector faces the prospect of a prolonged period of increasing competition for professional and skilled workers. It is crucial that industry, education and training institutions, regulatory authorities and policy makers have a complete understanding of the human resource challenges that can affect the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in order to ensure the current and future stability of the supply of electricity. This report discussed a study that was undertaken in order to develop a labour market information system and web-based application that would provide accurate information and viable projections of current and future labour supply and demand in the electricity sector. The report provided background information on the Electricity Sector Council; the purpose and objectives of the study; the research methodology; study limitations; and data and definitions. The report provided a profile of the electricity sector and the human resource implications associated with the sector and presented the demographics and characteristics of the current workforce in the electricity industry. Other data that was presented included the supply of labour for the electricity industry; projected retirement estimates associated with non-support positions within the electricity industry; future demand for skilled workers in the electricity industry; and recruitment options available to employers in the electricity industry. Last, human resource recommendations for the electricity sector arising from the report were presented. It was concluded that serious effort must be made to prepare for the future workforce within the electricity sector. 46 refs., 3 appendices

Portfolio assessments for future generation investment in newly industrializing countries – A case study of Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2012-01-01

This paper assesses future electricity generation portfolios in Thailand in 2030 given uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, electricity demand, and capital costs. Thailand faces challenges for generation investment given its rapid socio-economic progress and fast growing demand. A novel generation investment and planning decision-support tool which incorporates a Monte Carlo extension to conventional optimal generation mix methods combined with portfolio-based analysis techniques, is used. The tool can formally assess tradeoffs between expected future generation costs, cost uncertainties, and CO 2 emissions for the range of different generation portfolios. Results highlight that different levels of future carbon pricing will have significant impacts on the most appropriate generation portfolios. The impact of carbon pricing, however, is not on the appropriate proportion of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) in the mix but, instead, on the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. Compared with the current proposed 2030 generation mix, it is possible that there are other generation portfolios that offer lower expected costs, cost uncertainty, and CO 2 emissions depending on future carbon pricing. Results suggest that this investment decision-support approach may have value for electric utilities and policy-makers contemplating significant generation investments under high future uncertainty and conflicting policy objectives. -- Highlights: ► Assess Thailand's future generation portfolios in 2030 under uncertainties. ► Future carbon prices have significant impacts on the appropriate generation mixes. ► Carbon pricing affects the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. ► There may be more appropriate alternatives than the proposed 2030 generation mix. ► This decision-support approach has value for utility and policy decision-making.

Case studies on the success or failure of futures contracts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hilary Till

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Why do some futures contracts succeed and others fail? Although the U.S. futures markets have evolved in a trial-and-error fashion, research suggests key elements have determined whether particular futures contracts succeeded or failed. This knowledge could be useful for new financial centers as they build successful futures markets. This paper shows that there are three elements that determine whether a futures contract succeeds or not: 1. There must be a commercial need for hedging; 2. A pool of speculators must be attracted to a market; and 3. Public policy should not be too adverse to futures trading

Social ecological factors associated with future orientation of children affected by parental HIV infection and AIDS.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Xiuyun; Fang, Xiaoyi; Chi, Peilian; Heath, Melissa Allen; Li, Xiaoming; Chen, Wenrui

2016-07-01

From a social ecological perspective, this study examined the effects of stigma (societal level), trusting relationships with current caregivers (familial level), and self-esteem (individual level) on future orientation of children affected by HIV infection and AIDS. Comparing self-report data from 1221 children affected by parental HIV infection and AIDS and 404 unaffected children, affected children reported greater stigma and lower future orientation, trusting relationships, and self-esteem. Based on structural equation modeling, stigma experiences, trusting relationships, and self-esteem had direct effects on future orientation, with self-esteem and trusting relationships partially mediating the effect of stigma experiences on children's future orientation. Implications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Study and Evaluation of Current and Future Aircraft Loaders

Science.gov (United States)

1986-08-01

detonation intense Electromagnetic Pulse Eergy (DIP) is gene - rated which could seriously affect the electronic equipment. 2-105 The intense...speciality efforts, such as integrated logistics support (ILS), human factors engineering ( HFE ), and reliability, availability and m aintainability...task analyiis is outlined in detail in Appendix C: Human Fac- tors Enqineering Study and Evaluation of Current and Future Aircraft Loaders. The HFE

Ocean Studies Board annual report 1989 and future plans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

The major activities of the Ocean Studies Board of the National Research Council for 1989 are reviewed. The following are discussed: the Navy Panel, the CO2 Panel, the Committee on the Ocean's Role in Global Change, the Committee on the Coastal Ocean, the Workshop on Issues of U.S. Marine Fisheries, and the Continental Margins Workshop Committee. Future plans are covered

Predictors of Future Performance in Architectural Design Education

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, A. S.

2007-01-01

The link between academic performance in secondary education and the subsequent performance of students studying architecture at university level is commonly questioned by educators and admissions tutors. This paper investigates the potential for using measures of cognitive style and spatial ability as predictors of future potential in…

Future hydrological alterations in the Mekong Delta under the impact of water resources development, land subsidence and sea level rise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thanh Duc Dang

2018-02-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Depending on hydrological characteristics of each region (river-dominated, transitional or tidal, the influence of each potential driver may vary. The operation of proposed hydropower dams would change river-dominated upper floodplain’s water levels by 26 to 70% and −0.8 to −5.9% in the dry and wet season respectively, but the impact diminishes throughout the floodplains. In the wet season, the upper Vietnamese Delta changes from a transitional stage to a river-dominated stage, and localized water infrastructure development in the upper delta has the greatest effect on water levels in the region. Land subsidence combined with sea level rise could have the greatest future influence on flooding in the delta if current rates are extrapolated. Sustainable water management strategies are thus necessary to mitigate changes in the floodplains and delta and increase resilience to sea level rise and land subsidence.

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

1995-12-31

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-01-01

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-01-01

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

Study of New Silicon Sensors for Experiments at Future Particle Colliders

CERN Document Server

Muñoz Sánchez, Francisca Javiela

In this work, two new technologies for future tracker detectors at future colliders are studied. In addition, the characterization techniques are described and the obtained results are presented. On one side, we studied two-dimensional position-sensitive microstrip sensors. This sensors use a resistive material as electrode instead of the standard metallic one. In this way, using a single sensor we can get information about two coordinates of a particle hit. On the other side, we studied double-sided double-type 3D pixel sensors. This sensors are manufactured in 3D technology instead of in the planar technology. They show more radiation hardness and require less energy to be efficiently operated than sensors manufactured in planar technology. With this work, we demonstrate the resistive microstrip sensors functionality as particle detector and the radiation hardness of 3D pixel detectors has been evaluated.

Predict the Medicare Functional Classification Level (K-level) using the Amputee Mobility Predictor in people with unilateral transfemoral and transtibial amputation: A pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Dillon, Michael P; Major, Matthew J; Kaluf, Brian; Balasanov, Yuri; Fatone, Stefania

2018-04-01

While Amputee Mobility Predictor scores differ between Medicare Functional Classification Levels (K-level), this does not demonstrate that the Amputee Mobility Predictor can accurately predict K-level. To determine how accurately K-level could be predicted using the Amputee Mobility Predictor in combination with patient characteristics for persons with transtibial and transfemoral amputation. Prediction. A cumulative odds ordinal logistic regression was built to determine the effect that the Amputee Mobility Predictor, in combination with patient characteristics, had on the odds of being assigned to a particular K-level in 198 people with transtibial or transfemoral amputation. For people assigned to the K2 or K3 level by their clinician, the Amputee Mobility Predictor predicted the clinician-assigned K-level more than 80% of the time. For people assigned to the K1 or K4 level by their clinician, the prediction of clinician-assigned K-level was less accurate. The odds of being in a higher K-level improved with younger age and transfemoral amputation. Ordinal logistic regression can be used to predict the odds of being assigned to a particular K-level using the Amputee Mobility Predictor and patient characteristics. This pilot study highlighted critical method design issues, such as potential predictor variables and sample size requirements for future prospective research. Clinical relevance This pilot study demonstrated that the odds of being assigned a particular K-level could be predicted using the Amputee Mobility Predictor score and patient characteristics. While the model seemed sufficiently accurate to predict clinician assignment to the K2 or K3 level, further work is needed in larger and more representative samples, particularly for people with low (K1) and high (K4) levels of mobility, to be confident in the model's predictive value prior to use in clinical practice.

The Structural Model of Future Employees̕ Personal and Professional Self-Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhanna G. Garanina

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: the main purpose of this paper is to present the theoretical and practical aspects of professional and personal self-development of future professionals, the construction of the structural model and the determination of levels of self-development. The study of personal and professional self-development attributes of future professionals is of special interest to modern researchers, as well as for practicing psychologists studying the problem of self-realization and self-improvement in their professional fields. This article discusses the theoretical approaches to the study of the model and structure of personal and professional self- development. It analyses the results of the comparative empirical study of the features of students self-development with various levels of formation of motivational-semantic sphere. The authors carried out the detailed theoretical analysis of the problem of personal and professional self-development. They offer the structural model of the process, including the set of interrelated value-semantic, reflexive and regulatory components. The study revealed that the personal and professional self-development is a comprehensive system based on the active personal transformation being carried out in the course of behavior and activities self-regulation of their behavior, designed to achieve personal and professional goals. Materials and Methods: diagnostic methods were used to identify the level of self-development and personal qualities of students. Processing of the data was carried out by means of correlation, factor and cluster analysis. Results: this article considers the results of the empirical study conducted with the help of psycho-diagnostic methods aimed at identifying the level of self-development of future professionals, its structure and features. The scientifically valid results are obtained, allowing to identify the levels of self-development of students as well as to identify factors af

The AGE-RAGE axis in an Arab population: The United Arab Emirates Healthy Futures (UAEHFS) pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Inman, Claire K; Aljunaibi, Abdullah; Koh, Hyunwook; Abdulle, Abdishakur; Ali, Raghib; Alnaeemi, Abdullah; Al Zaabi, Eiman; Oumeziane, Naima; Al Bastaki, Marina; Al-Houqani, Mohammed; Al-Maskari, Fatma; Al Dhaheri, Ayesha; Shah, Syed M; Abdel Wareth, Laila; Al Mahmeed, Wael; Alsafar, Habiba; Al Anouti, Fatme; Al Hosani, Ayesha; Haji, Muna; Galani, Divya; O'Connor, Matthew J; Ahn, Jiyoung; Kirchhoff, Tomas; Sherman, Scott; Hayes, Richard B; Li, Huilin; Ramasamy, Ravichandran; Schmidt, Ann Marie

2017-12-01

The transformation of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from a semi-nomadic to a high income society has been accompanied by increasing rates of obesity and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. We examined if the AGE-RAGE (receptor for advanced glycation endproducts) axis is associated with obesity and diabetes mellitus in the pilot phase of the UAE Healthy Futures Study (UAEHFS). 517 Emirati subjects were enrolled and plasma/serum levels of AGE, carboxy methyl lysine (CML)-AGE, soluble (s)RAGE and endogenous secretory (es)RAGE were measured along with weight, height, waist and hip circumference (WC/HC), blood pressure, HbA1c, Vitamin D levels and routine chemistries. The relationship between the AGE-RAGE axis and obesity and diabetes mellitus was tested using proportional odds models and linear regression. After covariate adjustment, AGE levels were significantly associated with diabetes status. Levels of sRAGE and esRAGE were associated with BMI and levels of sRAGE were associated with WC/HC. The AGE-RAGE axis is associated with diabetes status and obesity in this Arab population. Prospective serial analysis of this axis may identify predictive biomarkers of obesity and cardiometabolic dysfunction in the UAEHFS.

Projected near-future CO2 levels increase activity and alter defensive behaviours in the tropical squid Idiosepius pygmaeus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blake L. Spady

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Carbon dioxide (CO2 levels projected to occur in the oceans by the end of this century cause a range of behavioural effects in fish, but whether other highly active marine organisms, such as cephalopods, are similarly affected is unknown. We tested the effects of projected future CO2 levels (626 and 956 µatm on the behaviour of male two-toned pygmy squid, Idiosepius pygmaeus. Exposure to elevated CO2 increased the number of active individuals by 19–25% and increased movement (number of line-crosses by nearly 3 times compared to squid at present-day CO2. Squid vigilance and defensive behaviours were also altered by elevated CO2 with >80% of individuals choosing jet escape responses over defensive arm postures in response to a visual startle stimulus, compared with 50% choosing jet escape responses at control CO2. In addition, more escape responses were chosen over threat behaviours in body pattern displays at elevated CO2 and individuals were more than twice as likely to use ink as a defence strategy at 956 µatm CO2, compared with controls. Increased activity could lead to adverse effects on energy budgets as well as increasing visibility to predators. A tendency to respond to a stimulus with escape behaviours could increase survival, but may also be energetically costly and could potentially lead to more chases by predators compared with individuals that use defensive postures. These results demonstrate that projected future ocean acidification affects the behaviours of a tropical squid species.

Future Climate Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cambell, C. G.

2004-01-01

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative

Future anthropogenic pollutant emissions in a Mediterranean port city with emphasis on the maritime sector emissions - Study of the impact on the city air quality

Science.gov (United States)

Liora, Natalia; Poupkou, Anastasia; Markakis, Konstantinos; Giannaros, Theodoros; Karagiannidis, Athanasios; Melas, Dimitrios

2013-04-01

The aim of this study is the estimation of the future emissions in the area of the large urban center of Thessaloniki (Greece) with emphasis on the emissions originated from the maritime sector within the port area of the city which are presented in detail. In addition, the contribution of the future anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric pollution levels in Thessaloniki focusing on PM levels is studied. A 2km spatial resolution anthropogenic gaseous and particulate matter emission inventory has been compiled for the port city of Thessaloniki for the year 2010 with the anthropogenic emission model MOSESS, developed by Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki. MOSESS was used for the estimation of emissions from several emission sources (road transport, central heating, industries, maritime sector etc) while the natural emission model NEMO was implemented for the calculation of dust, sea salt and biogenic emissions. Maritime emissions originated from the various processes inside the area of the port (harbor operations such as stockpiles, loading/unloading operations, machineries etc) as well as from the maritime transport sector including passenger ships, cargo shipping, inland waterways vessels (e.g. pleasure crafts) and fish catching ships. Ship emissions were estimated for the three operation modes; cruising, maneuvering and hotelling. For the calculation of maritime emissions, the activity data used were provided by local and national authorities (e.g.Thessaloniki Port Authority S.A.). Pollutant anthropogenic emissions were projected to the year 2020. The emissions from all the anthropogenic sources except for the maritime sector were projected using factors provided by the GAINS model. Future emissions from the maritime activities were estimated on the basis of the future activity data provided by the Port Authority and of the legislation for shipping in the future. Future maritime emissions are determined by the vessels

Inattention in primary school is not good for your future school achievement-A pattern classification study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Astri J Lundervold

Full Text Available Inattention in childhood is associated with academic problems later in life. The contribution of specific aspects of inattentive behaviour is, however, less known. We investigated feature importance of primary school teachers' reports on nine aspects of inattentive behaviour, gender and age in predicting future academic achievement. Primary school teachers of n = 2491 children (7-9 years rated nine items reflecting different aspects of inattentive behaviour in 2002. A mean academic achievement score from the previous semester in high school (2012 was available for each youth from an official school register. All scores were at a categorical level. Feature importances were assessed by using multinominal logistic regression, classification and regression trees analysis, and a random forest algorithm. Finally, a comprehensive pattern classification procedure using k-fold cross-validation was implemented. Overall, inattention was rated as more severe in boys, who also obtained lower academic achievement scores in high school than girls. Problems related to sustained attention and distractibility were together with age and gender defined as the most important features to predict future achievement scores. Using these four features as input to a collection of classifiers employing k-fold cross-validation for prediction of academic achievement level, we obtained classification accuracy, precision and recall that were clearly better than chance levels. Primary school teachers' reports of problems related to sustained attention and distractibility were identified as the two most important features of inattentive behaviour predicting academic achievement in high school. Identification and follow-up procedures of primary school children showing these characteristics should be prioritised to prevent future academic failure.

Inattention in primary school is not good for your future school achievement-A pattern classification study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lundervold, Astri J; Bøe, Tormod; Lundervold, Arvid

2017-01-01

Inattention in childhood is associated with academic problems later in life. The contribution of specific aspects of inattentive behaviour is, however, less known. We investigated feature importance of primary school teachers' reports on nine aspects of inattentive behaviour, gender and age in predicting future academic achievement. Primary school teachers of n = 2491 children (7-9 years) rated nine items reflecting different aspects of inattentive behaviour in 2002. A mean academic achievement score from the previous semester in high school (2012) was available for each youth from an official school register. All scores were at a categorical level. Feature importances were assessed by using multinominal logistic regression, classification and regression trees analysis, and a random forest algorithm. Finally, a comprehensive pattern classification procedure using k-fold cross-validation was implemented. Overall, inattention was rated as more severe in boys, who also obtained lower academic achievement scores in high school than girls. Problems related to sustained attention and distractibility were together with age and gender defined as the most important features to predict future achievement scores. Using these four features as input to a collection of classifiers employing k-fold cross-validation for prediction of academic achievement level, we obtained classification accuracy, precision and recall that were clearly better than chance levels. Primary school teachers' reports of problems related to sustained attention and distractibility were identified as the two most important features of inattentive behaviour predicting academic achievement in high school. Identification and follow-up procedures of primary school children showing these characteristics should be prioritised to prevent future academic failure.

Operation of a low-level waste disposal facility and how to prevent problems in future facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Sibio, R.

1985-01-01

Operation of a low-level waste facility is an ever increasing problem nationally, and specifically one that could grow to crisis proportion in Pennsylvania. There have been, nevertheless, a variety of changes over the years in the management of low level radioactive waste, particularly with regard to disposal facilities that can avert a crisis condition. A number of companies have been organized thru possible a broad range of services to the nuclear industry, including those that emphasize solidification of waste materials, engineering services, waste management, and transportation to disposal sites across the United States. This paper addresses one particular site and the problems which evolved at that site from an environmental perspective. It is important that it is clearly understood that, although these problems are resolvable, the lessons learned here are critical for the prevention of problems at future facilities. The focus of this paper is on the Maxey Flats, Kentucky disposal facility which was closed in 1977. It must be understood that the regulations for siting, management, burial techniques, waste classification, and the overall management of disposal sites were limited when this facility was in operation

Assessing the Knowledge Level, Attitudes, Risky Behaviors and Preventive Practices on Sexually Transmitted Diseases among University Students as Future Healthcare Providers in the Central Zone of Malaysia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adigun Temiloluwa Folasayo

2017-02-01

Full Text Available This study was done to assess the knowledge, attitudes, risky behaviors and preventive practices related to sexually-transmitted diseases (STDs among health and non-health sciences university students as future healthcare providers in Malaysia. A total of 700 health and non-health sciences university students (255 male; 445 female aged between 17 and 30 years were surveyed by using a self-administered questionnaire. The majority (86.6% had heard of STDs, and 50.4% knew STDs could present without symptoms. HIV remains the best known STD (83.6% by the students, while chlamydia (26% and trichomoniasis (21.0% were rarely known. Gender, age group, educational level and faculty type were strongly associated with knowledge level (p-values < 0.05. Most of them (88.8% were aware that STD screening was important while use of condoms was protective (63.8%. The majority of them strongly felt that treatment should be sought immediately if they (85.5% and their partners (87.4% have symptoms. Among the sexually-active students, 66.7% and 18% had sexual intercourse with multiple partners and commercial sex workers, while 17.4% and 9.4% took alcohol and drugs before having sex, respectively. By logistic regression analysis, students aged 24–30 years old (an odds ratio (AOR = 0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI = 0.377–0.859 and faculty type (AOR = 5.69, 95% CI = 4.019–8.057 were the significant predictors for the knowledge level. Knowledge on the non-HIV causes of STDs is still lacking, and the risky behavior practiced by the sexually-active students in this study is alarming. There is a need to revisit the existing STD education curriculum in both schools and universities so that appropriate intervention on STDs can be implemented.

Meeting the future of coherent neutrino scattering. A feasibility study for upcoming reactor experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salathe, Marco; Rink, Thomas [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Kernphysik, Heidelberg (Germany)

2016-07-01

Due to ongoing progress in detector development and background suppression techniques first evidence of neutrino coherent scattering seems reachable in future experiments. In recent years efforts have been enhanced to detect this effect with germanium detectors. This work aims at summarizing and improving past studies on the potential of an experiment at a reactor site to a new level of accuracy by using the most recent neutrino spectra, knowledge gained in recent detector developments and in contrast to prior studies an energy-dependent quenching factor. The influence of the main parameters (background suppression, detector resolution and threshold, reactor spectra, different isotopes) of a germanium detector experiment is presented and the sensitivities regarding the main reaction channels are calculated. The results were obtained through two independent methods; an algebraic computation and a numerical simulation. Both methods reveal the most important experimental parameters and clarify the state of the art challenges that research has to meet in such an experiment.

Future Time Perspective in the Work Context: A Systematic Review of Quantitative Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Hélène; Zacher, Hannes; Desmette, Donatienne

2017-01-01

A core construct in the lifespan theory of socioemotional selectivity, future time perspective (FTP) refers to individuals’ perceptions of their remaining time in life. Its adaptation to the work context, occupational future time perspective (OFTP), entails workers’ perceptions of remaining time and opportunities in their careers. Over the past decade, several quantitative studies have investigated antecedents and consequences of general FTP and OFTP in the work context (i.e., FTP at work). We systematically review and critically discuss this literature on general FTP (k = 17 studies) and OFTP (k = 16 studies) and highlight implications for future research and practice. Results of our systematic review show that, in addition to its strong negative relationship with age, FTP at work is also associated with other individual (e.g., personality traits) and contextual variables (e.g., job characteristics). Moreover, FTP at work has been shown to mediate and moderate relationships of individual and contextual antecedents with occupational well-being, as well as motivational and behavioral outcomes. As a whole, findings suggest that FTP at work is an important variable in the field of work and aging, and that future research should improve the ways in which FTP at work is measured and results on FTP at work are reported. PMID:28400741

Future Time Perspective in the Work Context: A Systematic Review of Quantitative Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Hélène; Zacher, Hannes; Desmette, Donatienne

2017-01-01

A core construct in the lifespan theory of socioemotional selectivity, future time perspective (FTP) refers to individuals' perceptions of their remaining time in life. Its adaptation to the work context, occupational future time perspective (OFTP), entails workers' perceptions of remaining time and opportunities in their careers. Over the past decade, several quantitative studies have investigated antecedents and consequences of general FTP and OFTP in the work context (i.e., FTP at work). We systematically review and critically discuss this literature on general FTP ( k = 17 studies) and OFTP ( k = 16 studies) and highlight implications for future research and practice. Results of our systematic review show that, in addition to its strong negative relationship with age, FTP at work is also associated with other individual (e.g., personality traits) and contextual variables (e.g., job characteristics). Moreover, FTP at work has been shown to mediate and moderate relationships of individual and contextual antecedents with occupational well-being, as well as motivational and behavioral outcomes. As a whole, findings suggest that FTP at work is an important variable in the field of work and aging, and that future research should improve the ways in which FTP at work is measured and results on FTP at work are reported.

Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

2016-09-01

One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

Characteristics of solidified high-level waste products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

The object of the report is to contribute to the establishment of a data bank for future preparation of codes of practice and standards for the management of high-level wastes. The work currently in progress on measuring the properties of solidified high-level wastes is being studied

Simulation of the effects of Devils Lake outlet alternatives on future lake levels and water quality in the Sheyenne River and Red River of the North

Science.gov (United States)

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2011-01-01

Since 1992, Devils Lake in northeastern North Dakota has risen nearly 30 feet, destroying hundreds of homes, inundating thousands of acres of productive farmland, and costing more than $1 billion for road raises, levee construction, and other flood mitigation measures. In 2011, the lake level is expected to rise at least another 2 feet above the historical record set in 2010 (1,452.0 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929), cresting less than 4 feet from the lake's natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,458.0 feet). In an effort to slow the rising lake and reduce the chance of an uncontrolled spill, the State of North Dakota is considering options to expand a previously constructed outlet from the west end of Devils Lake or construct a second outlet from East Devils Lake. Future outlet discharges from Devils Lake, when combined with downstream receiving waters, need to be in compliance with applicable Clean Water Act requirements. This study was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health Division of Water Quality, to evaluate the various outlet alternatives with respect to their effect on downstream water quality and their ability to control future lake levels.

The Observed Longitudinal Relationship between Future Orientation and Substance Use Among a Cohort of Youth with Serious Criminal Offenses.

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, Merrian; Miller, Elizabeth; Abebe, Kaleab; Mulvey, Edward

2018-03-06

Future orientation (FO), an essential construct in youth development, encompassing goals, expectations for life, and ability to plan for the future. This study uses a multidimensional measure of future orientation to assess the relationship between change in future orientation and change in substance use over time. Data were from the Pathways to Desistence study. Justice involved youth (n = 1,354), ages 14 to 18 at time of recruitment, completed interviews every six months for three years. Multiple measures were chosen a priori as elements of future orientation. After evaluating the psychometrics of a new measure for future orientation, we ran mixed effects cross-lagged panel models to assess the relationship between changes in future orientation and substance use (tobacco, marijuana, hard drugs, and alcohol). There was a significant bidirectional relationship between future orientation and all substance use outcomes. Adjusted models accounted for different sites, sex, age, ethnicity, parental education, and proportion of time spent in a facility. In adjusted models, higher levels of future orientation resulted in smaller increases in substance use at future time points. Future orientation and substance use influence each other in this sample of adolescent offenders. Treating substance use disorders is also likely to increase future orientation, promoting positive youth development more generally. This study expands our understanding of the longitudinal relationship between changes in future orientation and changes in levels of substance use in a sample of justice involved youth with high levels of substance use, a group of considerable clinical and policy interest.

Status of the Future Circular Collider Study

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(CDS)2108454; Zimmermann, Frank

2016-01-01

Following the 2013 update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics, the international Future Circular Collider (FCC) Study has been launched by CERN as host institute. Its main purpose and long-term goal is to design an energyfrontier hadron collider (FCC-hh) with a centre-of-mass energy of about 100 TeV in a new 80–100 km tunnel. The FCC study also includes the design of a 90–350 GeV highluminosity lepton collider (FCC-ee) installed in the same tunnel, serving as Higgs, top and Z factory, as a potential intermediate step, as well as an electron-proton collider option (FCC-he). The physics cases for such machines are being assessed and concepts for experiments will be developed by the end of 2018, in time for the next update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics. This overview summarizes the status of machine designs and parameters, and it discusses the essential technical components being developed in the frame of the FCC study. Key elements are superconducting accelerator-dipole magnets wit...

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O₃ level and of 0.3 mg m³ in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO₂, H₂O₂, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O₃, and increases in CH₄ and VOCs. Increasing NO_x and O₃ levels enhances the nitrogen and O₃ deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m² . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Marzeion

2012-11-01

Full Text Available We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26, 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45, 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60, or 217 ± 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85 during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26, 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45, or 424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85. Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26, 2050 ∼ 2060 (RCP45, 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60, or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85.

Projecting the self into the future in individuals with schizophrenia: a preliminary cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Raffard, Stéphane; Bortolon, Catherine; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Gardes, Jeanne; Gely-Nargeot, Marie-Christine; Capdevielle, Delphine; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-07-01

The ability to project oneself into the future contributes to development and maintenance of a coherent sense of identity. If recent research has revealed that schizophrenia is associated with difficulties envisioning the future, little is known about patients' future self-representations. In this study, 27 participants with schizophrenia and 26 healthy controls were asked to simulate mental representations of plausible and highly significant future events (self-defining future projections, SDFPs) that they anticipate to happen in their personal future. Main results showed that schizophrenia patients had difficulties in reflecting on the broader meaning and implications of imagined future events. In addition, and contrary to our hypothesis, a large majority of SDFPs in schizophrenia patients were positive events, including achievements, relationship, and leisure contents. Interestingly, patients and controls did not differ on the perceived probability that these events will occur in the future. Our results suggest that schizophrenia patients have an exaggerated positive perception of their future selves. Together, these findings lend support to the idea that past and future self-defining representations have both similar and distinct characteristics in schizophrenia.

The art of creating futures. Practical theology and a strategic research sensitivity for the future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Berg, J.A.; Ganzevoort, R.R.

2014-01-01

This paper explores a futures perspective for practical theology. Although there are some examples of a future orientation, a systematic futures perspective has not been developed. Building on futures studies (including predictive studies on foresight and design and architecture studies), the

Low-Level Waste Drum Assay Intercomparison Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greutzmacher, K.; Kuzminski, J.; Myers, S. C.

2003-01-01

Nuclear waste assay is an integral element of programs such as safeguards, waste management, and waste disposal. The majority of nuclear waste is packaged in drums and analyzed by various nondestructive assay (NDA) techniques to identify and quantify the radioactive content. Due to various regulations and the public interest in nuclear issues, the analytical results are required to be of high quality and supported by a rigorous Quality Assurance (QA) program. A valuable QA tool is an intercomparison program in which a known sample is analyzed by a number of different facilities. While transuranic waste (TRU) certified NDA teams are evaluated through the Performance Demonstration Program (PDP), low-level waste (LLW) assay specialists have not been afforded a similar opportunity. NDA specialists from throughout the DOE complex were invited to participate in this voluntary drum assay intercomparison study that was organized and facilitated by the Solid Waste Operations and the Safeguards Science and Technology groups at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and by Eberline Services. Each participating NDA team performed six replicate blind measurements of two 55-gallon drums with relatively low-density matrices (a 19.1 kg shredded paper matrix and a 54.4 kg mixed metal, rubber, paper and plastic matrix). This paper presents the results from this study, with an emphasis on discussing the lessons learned as well as desirable follow up programs for the future. The results will discuss the accuracy and precision of the replicate measurements for each NDA team as well as any issues that arose during the effort

Summary remarks and future prospects for on-line nuclear orientation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krane, K.S.; Hamilton, J.H.

1984-01-01

Results from various groups which use on-line low temperature nuclear orientation techniques are presented. Several nuclear parameters have been successfully studied: rotational levels, nuclear deformation, and decay modes. Future prospects include multiparameter analysis, relaxation and pre-orientation, new separators, and alpha decay studies. 33 refs., 5 figs

Past and future of radio occultation studies of planetary atmospheres

Science.gov (United States)

Eshleman, Von R.; Hinson, David P.; Tyler, G. Leonard; Lindal, Gunnar F.

1987-01-01

Measurements of radio waves that have propagated through planetary atmospheres have provided exploratory results on atmospheric constituents, structure, dynamics, and ionization for Venus, Mars, Titan, Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus. Highlights of past results are reviewed in order to define and illustrate the potential of occultation and related radio studies in future planetary missions.

Track parameter resolution study of a pixel only detector for LHC geometry and future high rate experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blago, Michele Piero; Kar, Tamasi Rameshchandra; Schoening, Andre [Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Heidelberg (Germany)

2016-07-01

Recent progress in pixel detector technology, for example using High Voltage-Monolithic Pixel Sensors (HV-MAPS), makes it feasible to construct an all-silicon pixel detector for large scale particle experiments like ATLAS and CMS or other future collider experiments. Preliminary studies have shown that nine layers of pixel sensors are sufficient to reliably reconstruct particle trajectories. The performance of such an all-pixel detector is studied based on a full GEANT simulation for high luminosity conditions at the upgraded LHC. Furthermore, the ability of an all-pixel detector to form trigger decisions using a special triplet pixel layer design is studied. Such a design could be used to reconstruct all tracks originating from the proton-proton interaction at the first hardware level at 40 MHz collision frequency.

Combining landscape-level conservation planning and biodiversity offset programs: a case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Underwood, Jared G

2011-01-01

Habitat loss is a major factor in the endangerment and extinction of species around the world. One promising strategy to balance continued habitat loss and biodiversity conservation is that of biodiversity offsets. However, a major concern with offset programs is their consistency with landscape-level conservation goals. While merging offset policies and landscape-level conservation planning is thought to provide advantages over a traditional disconnected approach, few such landscape-level conservation-offset plans have been designed and implemented, so the effectiveness of such a strategy remains uncertain. In this study, we quantitatively assess the conservation impact of combining landscape-level conservation planning and biodiversity offset programs by comparing regions of San Diego County, USA with the combined approach to regions with only an offset program. This comparison is generally very difficult due to a variety of complicating factors. We overcome these complications and quantify the benefits to rare and threatened species of implementing a combined approach by assessing the amount of each species' predicted distribution, and the number of documented locations, conserved in comparison to the same metric for areas with an offset policy alone. We found that adoption of the combined approach has increased conservation for many rare species, often 5-10 times more than in the comparison area, and that conservation has been focused in the areas most important for these species. The level of conservation achieved reduces uncertainty that these species will persist in the region into the future. This San Diego County example demonstrates the potential benefits of combining landscape-level conservation planning and biodiversity offset programs.

Predictors of future anabolic androgenic steroid use.

Science.gov (United States)

Wichstrøm, Lars

2006-09-01

To prospectively study the stability of anabolic androgenic steroid (AAS) use and predictors of AAS use, and to investigate whether AAS use alters the risk of later emotional and behavioral problems. Survey of a national sample of Norwegian high school students (age 15-19) in 1994 followed up in 1999 (N = 2924). Measures of frequent alcohol intoxication (50+ times per 12 months), cannabis use (12 months), hard drug use (12 months), being offered cannabis, eating problems, conduct problems, sexual debut before age 15, BMI, involvement in power sports, perceived physical appearance, and satisfaction with body parts were obtained. Life-time prevalence of AAS use were 1.9 and 0.8% in the follow-up period. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that future AAS use was predicted by young age, male gender, previous AAS use, involvement in power sports, and frequent alcohol intoxication. AAS use did not predict future emotional or behavioral problems other than reducing the risk of future frequent alcohol intoxication. Frequent alcohol intoxication and involvement in power sports appear to predict future AAS use. At the population level there was little stability in individual AAS use from adolescence to early adulthood. No detrimental effects of AAS use could be detected in this study, but low statistical power limits this conclusion.

High level radioactive wastes: Considerations on final disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciallella, Norberto R.

2000-01-01

When at the beginnings of the decade of the 80 the National Commission on Atomic Energy (CNEA) in Argentina decided to study the destination of the high level radioactive wastes, was began many investigations, analysis and multidisciplinary evaluations that be origin to a study of characteristics never before carried out in Argentina. For the first time in the country was faced the study of an environmental eventual problem, several decades before that the problem was presented. The elimination of the high level radioactive wastes in the technological aspects was taken in advance, avoiding to transfer the problems to the future generations. The decision was based, not only in technical evaluations but also in ethical premises, since it was considered that the future generations may enjoy the benefits of the nuclear energy and not should be solve the problem. The CNEA in Argentina in 1980 decided to begin a feasibility study and preliminary engineering project for the construction of the final disposal of high level radioactive wastes

Catecholamine levels in a Ramadan fasting model in rats: a case control study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pakize Gamze Erten Bucaktepe

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Eating habits as well as physical exercise are very important for a healthy lifespan. Ramadan-type fasting, which is food and water avoidance during the daylight period for four weeks, has drawn attention due to its positive impacts on metabolism and health. The aim of this study was to compare the blood and urine catecholamine (CA levels in fasting and non-fasting rats, in terms of stress response. A total of 20 male rats were randomly divided into a fasting group and a control group. Four weeks later, blood and urine samples were taken after decapitation. Analysis of CAs was done using high-performance liquid chromatography with florescence detection (HPLC-FLD. The dopamine (DA, adrenaline (ADR and noradrenaline (NA blood and urine concentrations were found to be higher in the fasting group compared to the control group, but the difference was statistically significant only for the blood DA levels (p < 0.05. In the fasting group, the blood values of ADR and NA correlated with each other but not with the DA levels, whereas there was correlation among the urine levels of DA, ADR and NA. In the control group, the blood and urine values of DA, ADR and NA correlated with each other. The differences observed in the blood and urine CAs indicate a specific regulation of CAs in Ramadan-type fasting, which needs to be investigated thoroughly in future studies.

Future Orientation, School Contexts, and Problem Behaviors: A Multilevel Study

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T.

2013-01-01

The association between future orientation and problem behaviors has received extensive empirical attention; however, previous work has not considered school contextual influences on this link. Using a sample of N = 9,163 9th to 12th graders (51.0% females) from N = 85 high schools of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, the…

Experience of Future Economists' Self-Study Organization in Foreign Higher Education Institutions

Science.gov (United States)

Aliyev, Oktay

2016-01-01

The article consolidates information sources on the issues of future economists' self-study organization at foreign universities. There has been carried out the study of approaches to the interpretation of the term "self-study process" in the contemporary scientific thought abroad. There have been specified the productive ideas of…

Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

of Extreme Sea Level 11.3.1 An Introduction to Storms Both mid-latitude and tropical storms are associated with extremes of sea level. Storm surges are generated by low atmospheric pressure and intense winds over the ocean. The latter also cause high wave... timescales, extremes and mean-sea-level change are both major factors in determining coastal evolution including the development of coastal ecosystems. It will be seen below that, although it is difficult to determine how mean sea level has changed...

The relationship between future orientation and street substance use among Texas alternative school students.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, R J; Tortolero, Susan R; Johnson, Regina Jones; Addy, Robert C; Markham, Christine M; Escobar-Chaves, S Liliana; Lewis, Holly; Yacoubian, George S

2005-01-01

Self-reported substance use data were collected from 963 alternative school students in grades 7-12 who were surveyed through the Safer Choices 2 study in Houston, Texas. Data were collected between October 2000 and March 2001. Logistic regression analyses indicated that lower levels of future orientation was significantly associated (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.81-0.97) with thirty-day substance use after controlling for age and gender. In addition, lower levels of future orientation was found to have a significant association with students' lifetime substance use (OR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.87-.99) after controlling for age, race, and gender. While the relationships tested in this study are exploratory, they provide evidence for an important connection between future orientation and substance use among adolescents attending alternative schools.

Interactive Level Design for iOS Assignment Delivery: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anson Brown

2014-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an application of an iOS-based online gaming assignment in a real classroom. The core concept of the project is a gameplay environment involving two players that have full control over creation and modification of levels. This level design mechanism was implemented in an iOS-based game in the area of genetics and based on an existing written assignment. The game includes support for both instructors, who have the ability to create and post assignments and students, who can take the assignments. Two trials of the iOS application consisted of in-class testing of twenty- one students. Students first took the original paper assignment, followed by the iOS version. Start times, end times, and grades were recorded for both versions. A comprehensive study of the grades and times for the iOS version of the assignment versus the paper version was conducted and is presented in this paper. Our Study showed that the iOS version was completed much faster in nearly every case while a strong delivery mechanism is needed to ensure student grades and completion of the assignment will not be affected. These results are not unexpected due to some major difference between the two formats. Future updates and additions will address any currently existing issues.

Occupancy in community-level studies

Science.gov (United States)

MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Nichols, James; Royle, Andy; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Hines, James

2018-01-01

Another type of multi-species studies, are those focused on community-level metrics such as species richness. In this chapter we detail how some of the single-species occupancy models described in earlier chapters have been applied, or extended, for use in such studies, while accounting for imperfect detection. We highlight how Bayesian methods using MCMC are particularly useful in such settings to easily calculate relevant community-level summaries based on presence/absence data. These modeling approaches can be used to assess richness at a single point in time, or to investigate changes in the species pool over time.

Future Climate Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

C. G. Cambell

2004-09-03

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past

Evaporation from a temperate closed-basin lake and its impact on present, past, and future water level

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Ke; Griffis, Timothy J.; Baker, John M.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Erickson, Matt D.; Lee, Xuhui; Wood, Jeffrey D.; Hu, Cheng; Nieber, John L.

2018-06-01

Lakes provide enormous economic, recreational, and aesthetic benefits to citizens. These ecosystem services may be adversely impacted by climate change. In the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA, many lakes have been at historic low levels and water augmentation strategies have been proposed to alleviate the problem. White Bear Lake (WBL) is a notable example. Its water level declined 1.5 m during 2003-2013 for reasons that are not fully understood. This study examined current, past, and future lake evaporation to better understand how climate will impact the water balance of lakes within this region. Evaporation from WBL was measured from July 2014 to February 2017 using two eddy covariance (EC) systems to provide better constraints on the water budget and to investigate the impact of evaporation on lake level. The estimated annual evaporation losses for years 2014 through 2016 were 559 ± 22 mm, 779 ± 81 mm, and 766 ± 11 mm, respectively. The higher evaporation in 2015 and 2016 was caused by the combined effects of larger average daily evaporation and a longer ice-free season. The EC measurements were used to tune the Community Land Model 4 - Lake, Ice, Snow and Sediment Simulator (CLM4-LISSS) to estimate lake evaporation over the period 1979-2016. Retrospective analyses indicate that WBL evaporation increased during this time by about 3.8 mm year-1, which was driven by increased wind speed and lake-surface vapor pressure gradient. Using a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), lake evaporation was modeled forward in time from 2017 to 2100. Annual evaporation is expected to increase by 1.4 mm year-1 over this century, largely driven by lengthening ice-free periods. These changes in ice phenology and evaporation will have important implications for the regional water balance, and water management and water augmentation strategies that are being proposed for these Metropolitan lakes.

Thoughts on future ESSR studies of inner core levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krause, M.O.

1990-01-01

Much of the research to be done at a tunable high-brightness, high-energy photon source can take as a starting point work done in the past, some in the distant past, some in the recent past, but almost always rudimentary or exploratory in nature. It began in the mid-twenties when Pierre Auger observed various tracks in a Wilson Cloud Chamber filled with a rare gas and irradiated by energetic x rays. Now-a-days this photographic plate is shown as evidence for the experimental discovery of the radiationless process of atomic de-excitation, the Auger Effect - no doubt true; but these plates also served the important purpose of determining the angular distributions of the photoelectrons, actually the primary goal at the outset of Auger's thesis. Today, the author shows this plate as an illustration of electron spectroscopy which at its very beginning used x rays of high energies lying in the regime to be covered by the APS, and sources such as PEP, ESRF and SPring 8

Low-level waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levin, G.B.

1980-01-01

An overview of the current situation in the United States and a look to the future of low-level waste management are presented. Current problems and challenges are discussed, such as: the need of additional disposal sites in the future; risks and costs involved in transport of low-level wastes; reduction of low-level waste volume through smelting, incineration, and storage for wastes containing nuclides with short half lives; development of a national policy for the management of low-level waste, and its implementation through a sensible system of regulations. Establishing a success with low-level waste management should provide the momentum and public confidence needed to continue on and to resolve the technical and politically more difficult low-level waste problems

Study of methane hydrate as a future energy resource: low emission extraction and power generation

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, L.; Yamada, H.; Kanda, Y.; Sasaki, H.; Okajima, J.; Iga, Y.; Komiya, A.; Maruyama, S.

2016-08-01

With the fast increase of world energy consumption in recent years, new and sustainable energy sources are becoming more and more important. Methane Hydrate is one promising candidate for the future energy supply of humankind, due to its vast existence in permafrost regions and near-coast seabed. This study is focused on the effective low emission utilization of methane hydrate from deep seabed. The Nankai Trough of Japan is taken as the target region in this study for methane hydrate extraction and utilization system design. Low emission system and power generation system with CCS (Carbon Capture and Sequestration) processes are proposed and analyzed for production rate and electricity generation efficiency problem study. It is found that the gas production price can reach the current domestic natural gas supply price level if the production rate can be improved. The optimized system is estimated to have power efficiency about 35%. In addition, current development and analysis from micro-to-macro scale methane hydrate production and dissociation dynamics are also discussed into detail in this study.

Peculiarities of Social Competence of Future Specialists of Physical Education and Sports

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romualdas K. Malinauskas

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The article reveals the peculiarities of social competence of future specialists of physical education and sports. To solve the objectives, the poll has been carried out. 263 student have been selected (135 future teachers of physical culture and 128 future coaches. The results show that future teachers of physical education have higher level of responsiveness (the ability to console, the ability to help than future coaches. Future teachers of physical education have higher level of ability to avoid insult

Parenting and Adolescents' Depressive Symptoms: The Mediating Role of Future Time Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Diaconu-Gherasim, Loredana R; Bucci, Colleen M; Giuseppone, Kathryn R; Brumariu, Laura E

2017-10-03

This study investigated the relations between maternal and paternal rearing practices and adolescents' depressive symptoms, and whether time perspective in adolescence explains these links. The sample included 306 students (158 girls), aged between 10.83 and 14.42 years. Adolescents completed questionnaires assessing their perceptions of maternal and paternal acceptance and psychological control, and of their future time perspective and depressive symptoms. Adolescents who rated their mothers as more accepting and those who rated their fathers as less psychologically controlling also reported lower levels of depressive symptoms and greater future time perspective. Further, adolescents who had greater future time perspective reported lower levels of depressive symptoms. Finally, time perspective partially mediated the relations of maternal and paternal acceptance, and paternal control with depressive symptoms in adolescence. The findings highlight the unique relations of maternal acceptance and paternal psychological control with adolescents' depressive symptoms, and that future time perspective is one mechanism that might explain why parenting strategies are linked with depressive symptoms in adolescence.

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pacyna, J. M.; Travnikov, O.; De Simone, F.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Sundseth, K.; Pacyna, E. G.; Steenhuisen, F.; Pirrone, N.; Munthe, J.; Kindbom, K.

2016-01-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the

Serum homocysteine levels are associated with the development of (micro)albuminuria : the Hoorn study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jager, A; Kostense, P J; Nijpels, G; Dekker, J M; Heine, R J; Bouter, L M; Donker, A J; Stehouwer, C D

Microalbuminuria is a strong indicator of the risk of future cardiovascular disease and renal dysfunction. Slightly increased levels of homocysteine, an independent risk factor for atherothrombotic disease, have recently been found to be associated with the presence of (micro)albuminuria. However,

Basal cortisol levels and metabolic syndrome: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcez, Anderson; Leite, Heloísa Marquardt; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Paniz, Vera Maria Vieira; Watte, Guilherme; Canuto, Raquel; Olinto, Maria Teresa Anselmo

2018-05-17

and meta-analysis does not reveal any association between basal cortisol levels and MetS based on results of observational studies. The results of a random-effect meta-analysis showed no significant difference in basal cortisol levels between subjects with and without MetS. The present findings should be considered in order to help future studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Past and future contribution of global groundwater depletion to sea-level rise

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Chao, B.; Wu, Y.-H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2012-01-01

Recent studies suggest the increasing contribution of groundwater depletion to global sea-level rise. Groundwater depletion has more than doubled during the last decades, primarily due to increase in water demand, while the increase in water impoundments behind dams has been tapering off since

Study on tooth development, past, present, and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Han-Sung; Hitoshi, Yamamoto; Kim, Hee-Jin

2003-04-01

For decades, the understanding of craniofacial development has been a central issue in odontology and developmental biology. As a consequence, a significant number of deformities are being studied for their variety of genotype and phenotype. Although there is little doubt about the essential roles of homeobox genes, transcription factors, and growth factors, we now know at least the fundamental strategy of craniofacial biology. The tooth as an organ performs a whole range of functions, each of which is truly indispensable for the maintenance of life. The possession of teeth is, therefore, obviously coupled with the complication of the natural structure of an individual organism. In the following, we shall focus on a brief history of tooth studies and some suggestions for obtaining a full understanding of teeth in the future. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A model of water and sediment balance as determinants of relative sea level rise in contemporary and future deltas

Science.gov (United States)

Tessler, Zachary D.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Overeem, Irina; Syvitski, James P. M.

2018-03-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for human and for natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea level rise across 46 global deltas. We model scenarios of contemporary and future water resource management schemes and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea level rise in delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea level rise result in delta relative sea level rise rates that average 6.8 mm/y. Assessment of impacts of planned and under-construction dams on relative sea level rise rates suggests increases on the order of 1 mm/y in deltas with new upstream construction. Sediment fluxes are estimated to decrease by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas caused by increased river channelization and management has a larger impact, increasing relative sea level rise on average by nearly 2 mm/y. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Local and regional strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea level rise.

Results from levels 2/3 fusion implementations: issues, challenges, retrospectives, and perspectives for the future an annotated perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Kadar, Ivan; Bosse, Eloi; Salerno, John; Lambert, Dale A.; Das, Subrata; Ruspini, Enrique H.; Rhodes, Bradley J.; Biermann, Joachim

2008-04-01

Even though the definition of the Joint Director of Laboratories (JDL) "fusion levels" were established in 1987, published 1991, revised in 1999 and 2004, the meaning, effects, control and optimization of interactions among the fusion levels have not as yet been fully explored and understood. Specifically, this is apparent from the abstract JDL definitions of "Levels 2/3 Fusion" - situation and threat assessment (SA/TA), which involve deriving relations among entities, e.g., the aggregation of object states (i.e., classification and location) in SA, while TA uses SA products to estimate/predict the impact of actions/interactions effects on situations taken by the participant entities involved. Given all the existing knowledge in the information fusion and human factors literature, (both prior to and after the introduction of "fusion levels" in 1987) there are still open questions remaining in regard to implementation of knowledge representation and reasoning methods under uncertainty to afford SA/TA. Therefore, to promote exchange of ideas and to illuminate the historical, current and future issues associated with Levels 2/3 implementations, leading experts were invited to present their respective views on various facets of this complex problem. This paper is a retrospective annotated view of the invited panel discussion organized by Ivan Kadar (first author), supported by John Salerno, in order to provide both a historical perspective of the evolution of the state-of-the-art (SOA) in higher-level "Levels 2/3" information fusion implementations by looking back over the past ten or more years (before JDL), and based upon the lessons learned to forecast where focus should be placed to further enhance and advance the SOA by addressing key issues and challenges. In order to convey the panel discussion to audiences not present at the panel, annotated position papers summarizing the panel presentation are included.

Counting bodies? On future engagements with science studies in medical anthropology.

Science.gov (United States)

Yates-Doerr, Emily

2017-08-01

Thirty years ago, Nancy Scheper-Hughes and Margaret Lock outlined a strategy for 'future work in medical anthropology' that focused on three bodies. Their article - a zeitgeist for the field - sought to intervene into the Cartesian dualisms characterizing ethnomedical anthropology at the time. Taking a descriptive and diagnostic approach, they defined 'the mindful body' as a domain of future anthropological inquiry and mapped three analytic concepts that could be used to study it: the individual/phenomenological body, the social body, and the body politic. Three decades later, this paper returns to the 'three bodies'. It analyses ethnographic fieldwork on chronic illness, using a rescriptive, practice-oriented approach to bodies developed by science studies scholars that was not part of the initial three bodies framework. It illustrates how embodiment was a technical achievement in some practices, while in others bodies did not figure as relevant. This leads to the suggestion that an anthropology of health need not be organized around numerable bodies. The paper concludes by suggesting that future work in medical anthropology might embrace translational competency, which does not have the goal of better definitions (better health, better bodies, etc.) but the goal of better engaging with exchanges between medical and non-medical practices. That health professionals are themselves moving away from bodies to embrace 'planetary health' makes a practice-focused orientation especially crucial for medical anthropology today.

Different places, different stories: A study of the spatial heterogeneity of county-level fertility in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donghui Wang

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Background: China has been characterized by persistently low fertility rates since the 1990s. Existing literature has examined the relationship between fertility levels and social, economic, and policy-related determinants. However, the possible spatial variation in these relationships has not been investigated. Objective: The purpose of this study is to examine the potential spatially varying relationships between county-level fertility rates and policy and socioeconomic factors in China. Methods: Using geocoded 2010 county-level census data, this study adopts the geographically weighted regression (GWR method to identify place-specific relationships between county-level total fertility rate (TFR and socioeconomic and policy-related factors. Conclusions: We find that relationships between TFR and widely used social, economic, and policy-related factors (rural Hukou, ethnic minority, female education, net migration rate, poor living standard, sex ratio at birth, fertility policy compliance ratio vary spatially in terms of direction, strength, and magnitude. This spatial variation is largely due to differences in local characteristics. The differences between and the complexities of localities cannot be told by a single story of either government intervention or socioeconomic development. Contribution: This study extends existing fertility research on China by explicitly recognizing the spatial heterogeneity in the impact of policy and socioeconomic factors on the local fertility rate. This study sets the stage for future research that will contextually analyze varying fertility rates at the subnational level in China and other countries.

A pilot study of neurointerventional research level of evidence and collaboration.

Science.gov (United States)

Fargen, Kyle M; Mocco, J; Spiotta, Alejandro M; Rai, Ansaar; Hirsch, Joshua A

2017-07-01

No studies have sought to provide a quantitative or qualitative critique of research in the field of neurointerventional surgery. To analyze recent publications from the Journal of Neurointerventional Surgery ( JNIS ) to test a new method for assessing research and collaboration. We reviewed all JNIS Online First publications from 25 February 2015 to 24 February 2016. All publications-human or non-human research, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, or literature reviews-were included; editorials and commentaries were excluded. For each publication, study design, number of patients, authors, contributing centers, and study subject were recorded. Level of evidence was defined using a new scale. A total of 206 articles met inclusion criteria. Only 4% were prospective studies. Twenty-eight per cent of scientific research featured patient series of nine or less. The majority of publications were categorized as low-level evidence (91%). Forty-seven per cent involved individuals from a single center, with 87% having collaboration from three or fewer centers. International collaboration was present in 19%. While 256 institutions from 31 countries were represented, 66% were represented in only one publication. We queried JNIS Online First articles from a 1-year period in a pilot study to test a new method of analyzing research quality and collaboration. The methodology appears to adequately quantify the studies into evidence tiers that emulate previously published, widely accepted scales. This may be useful for future comparison of peer-reviewed journals or for studying the quality of research being performed in different disease processes or medical specialties. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

The SusHouse project. Use and maintenance of clothing as an example. Environmental analysis of system-level future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knot, M.; Bras-Klapwijk, R.M.

2001-01-01

The SusHouse project assumed that system-level innovations are necessary for sustainable development, involving new arrangements and combined innovations in technology, organisation and behaviour. The life cycle analysis (LCA) method has been used and adapted to evaluate the potential of such complex system-level strategies to reduce environmental impact. This article explains and discusses this approach and presents some assessment results for the SusHouse research into clothing. The requirements and systems used were found to yield interesting insights into relevant solutions and strategies. The future scenarios for clothing promise major improvements in most of the environmental indicators, with particular contributions from changes in the quantity and quality of clothing consumed. The article recommends extending the approach with a 'turning points' analysis, because of the many uncertainties, as well as the use of more differentiated indicators and the inclusion of a focused trend analysis. 17 refs

Basic investigation and analysis for preferred host rocks and natural analogue study area with reference to high level radioactive waste disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seo, Jeong Ryul; Park, J. K.; Hwang, D. H.; Lee, J. H.; Yun, H. S.; Kim, D. Y.; Park, H. S.; Koo, S. B.; Cho, J. D.; Kim, K. E. [Korea Inst. of Geology, Mining and Materials, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1997-12-01

The purpose of this study is basic investigation and analysis for preferred host rocks and natural analogue study area to develope underground disposal technique of high level radioactive waste in future. The study has been done for the crystalline rocks(especially granitic rocks) with emphasis of abandoned metallic mines and uranium ore deposits, and for the geological structure study by using gravity and aeromagnetic data. 138 refs., 54 tabs., 130 figs. (author)

The future of organization development: A delphi study among Dutch experts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Korten, F.; de Caluwe, L.I.A.; Geurts, J.

2010-01-01

From this Delphi study among Dutch experts, the future of organization development (OD) emerges as a loosely coupled community of practice, linking very diverse members, professionals as well as scholars. One finds different priorities and values in this community, some of them even dilemmatic. The

Levels of Acculturation of Chinese Older Adults in the Greater Chicago Area - The Population Study of Chinese Elderly in Chicago.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, XinQi; Bergren, Stephanie M; Chang, E-Shien

2015-09-01

Acculturation is a difficult process for minority older adults for a variety of reasons, including access and exposure to mainstream culture, competing ethnic identities, and linguistic ability and preference. There is a paucity of research regarding overall level of acculturation for Chinese older adults in the United States. This study aimed to provide an overall estimate of level of acculturation of Chinese older adults in the United States and to examine correlations between sociodemographic characteristics, self-reported health measures, and level of acculturation. Data were collected through the Population Study of Chinese Elderly in Chicago (PINE) study. This community-based participatory research study surveyed 3,159 Chinese older adults aged 60 and older. The PINE Study Acculturation Scale was used to assess level of acculturation in three dimensions: language preference, media use, and ethnic social relations. Mean acculturation level for all items was 15.3 ± 5.1, indicating low levels of acculturation. Older age, more offspring, lower income, fewer years living in the United States, lower overall health status, and lower quality of life were associated with lower levels of acculturation. Level of acculturation was low in Chinese older adults, and certain subsets of the population were more likely to have a lower level of acculturation. Future research should investigate causality and effects of level of acculturation. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Education for older drivers in the future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esko Keskinen

2014-07-01

Five presumptions have to be considered when addressing future education for older drivers: 1. Driving a car will continue to be one element of mobility in the future; 2. Older people want to be able to keep driving; 3. Safety will be an even more important factor in mobility in the future; 4. Ecological values will be more important in the future; and 5. Innovative technological applications will be more important in the future. Hierarchical models of driving are suitable in increasing understanding of older drivers' needs and abilities. The highest levels of the driving hierarchy in the Goals for Driver Education (GDE model are especially important for the safety of both young and elderly drivers. In these highest levels goals for life, skills for living, and social environment affect everyday decision making in general but also driving, which has an impact on driver safety. Giving up driving is very much a social decision and should be taken as such. However, the highest levels of the driving hierarchy are by nature inaccessible to teacher-centered instruction These levels require more coaching-like education methods where the learner takes the central role and the teacher helps the drivers understand their own abilities and limitations in traffic. Testing and selecting older drivers to enhance safety is not, according to research findings, working in a proper way. Older drivers do not so much need more information concerning traffic rules, etc., but rather better understanding of themselves, their health restrictions, their skills, and their abilities to ensure daily mobility. Their closest companions also need tools to help them in discussions of traffic safety issues affecting older drivers.

Social transactions with future generations for the management of high level radioactive waste in deep repositories: Reflections on institutional control and retrievability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Schieber, C.; Schneider, T.; Viala, M.

1999-01-01

The management of high level radioactive waste and spent fuel is a key issue and one of the most sensitive aspect of radioactive waste management. Recognising that it is the responsibility of our generation to find a way to isolate the waste, deep geological disposals have been envisaged to provide a definitive solution to the problem, in order to avoid 'undue burden on future generations'. However, even if they are buried, the wastes still exist and human intrusion is still possible as well as releases into the environment in the very far future. At the same time, the ongoing reflections on the ethical aspects of disposals show that it is of great worth that we guarantee future generations the same right of control and responsibility that we ourselves enjoy. This paper presents some reflections on the social transactions associated with the management and design of geological repositories. It is focused on the mission of institutional control in the transmission to future generation of a safety patrimony, composed of the know-how and techniques that permit the human community to 'domesticate' and control the risk. As it appears that the efficiency and the confidence in the control system rely mainly on the capability of implementing corrective actions, some considerations on the role, the consequences and the implementation of retrievability are also presented

Future directions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lutz, R.J. Jr.

2004-01-01

Topics presented concerning the future developments in risk analysis are: safety goals, US severe accident policy, code developments, research programs, analyses and operation action, linking with the deterministic analyses. Principle consideration in risk is defined as protection of both general population, and nearby residents. The principal goal should be consistent with risk of other man-caused activities, the cost benefit after minimum safety levels are achieved, and proportional to benefits to be gained

Future Orientation, Impulsivity, and Problem Behaviors: A Longitudinal Moderation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T.

2011-01-01

In the current study, based on a sample of 1,873 adolescents between 11.4 and 20.9 years of age from the first 3 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we investigated the longitudinal effects of future orientation on levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors, while controlling for the effects by impulsivity;…

Making the future palpable: Notes from a major incident Future Laboratory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Büscher, Monika; Kristensen, Margit; Mogensen, Preben Holst

2008-01-01

In this paper we describe experiences from a Future Laboratory. Future laboratories allow users to experiment with prototypes of future technologies in as realistic as possible conditions. We have devised this method because, to realize the potential of advanced ubiquitous computing technologies...... it is essential to anticipate and design for future practices, but for prospective users it is often difficult to imagine and articulate future practices and provide design specifications. However, they readily invent new ways of working in engagement with new technologies and, by facilitating realistic use...... of prototype technologies in Future Laboratories, designers and users can define and study both opportunities and constraints for design. We present 11 scenes from a Major Incidents Future Laboratory held in September 2005. Many raise tough questions rather than provide quick answers. In addition, many also...

Past, Present, and Future in the Scientific Study of Religion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mccorkle, William W.; Xygalatas, Dimitris

2012-01-01

The study of religion is by its nature and by its history multi-disciplinary, incorporating diverse research paradigms ranging from historiography to experimental approaches and from scientific positivism to postmodern reflection. At a conference on the Past, Present, and Future in the Scientific...... in the humani- ties. The Laboratory for the Experimental Research of Religion in Brno, who hosted this conference, is the product of these developments...

Organizational- and employee-level recruitment into a worksite-based weight loss study.

Science.gov (United States)

Linnan, Laura; Tate, Deborah F; Harrington, Cherise B; Brooks-Russell, Ashley; Finkelstein, Eric; Bangdiwala, Shrikant; Birken, Ben; Britt, Ashley

2012-04-01

Based on national estimates, the majority of working adults are overweight or obese. Overweight and obesity are associated with diminished health, productivity, and increased medical costs for employers. Worksite-based weight loss interventions are desirable from both employee and employer perspectives. To investigate organizational- and employee-level participation in a group-randomized controlled worksite-based weight loss trial. Using a set of inclusion criteria and pre-established procedures, we recruited worksites (and overweight/obese employees from enrolled worksites) from the North Carolina Community College System to participate in a weight loss study. Recruitment results at the worksite (organization) and employee levels are described, along with an assessment of representativeness. Eighty-one percent (48/59) of community colleges indicated initial interest in participating in the weight loss study, and of those, 17 colleges were enrolled. Few characteristics distinguished enrolled community colleges from unenrolled colleges in the overall system. Eligible employees (n = 1004) at participating colleges were enrolled in the weight loss study. On average, participants were aged 46.9 years (SD = 12.1 years), had a body mass index (BMI) of 33.6 kg/m(2) (SD = 7.9 kg/m(2)), 83.2% were White, 13.3% African American, 82.2% female, and 41.8% reported holding an advanced degree (master's or doctoral degree). Compared with the larger North Carolina Community College employee population, participants most often were women, but few other differences were observed. Employees with reduced computer access may have been less likely to participate, and limited data on unenrolled individuals or colleges were available. Community colleges are willing partners for weight loss intervention studies, and overweight/obese employees were receptive to joining a weight loss study offered in the workplace. The results from this study are useful for planning future worksite

Profiles of Opportunities to Learn for TEDS-M Future Secondary Mathematics Teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ting-Ying; Tang, Shu-Jyh

2013-01-01

This study used the data set from the Teacher Education and Development Study in Mathematics to identify the profiles of opportunities to learn (OTL) regarding topics studied in teacher preparation programs by future secondary mathematics teachers from 15 participating countries. The topics of inquiry covered tertiary-level mathematics,…

Factors that influence consumers' acceptance of future energy systems : the effects of adjustment type, production level, and price

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leijten, Fenna R. M.; Bolderdijk, Jan Willem; Keizer, Kees; Gorsira, Madelijne; van der Werff, Ellen; Steg, Linda

2014-01-01

To promote the successful introduction of sustainable energy systems, more insight is needed into factors influencing consumer's acceptance of future energy systems. A questionnaire study among 139 Dutch citizens (aged 18-85) was conducted. Participants rated the acceptability of energy systems made

Are we at risk from level radiation - DNA repair capacity studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riklis, E.; Kol, R.; Heimer, Y.M.

1979-01-01

A new biochemical method, based on determination of DNA repair capability, which will enable predetermination of radiation sensitivity and further - an indication of inherent sensitivity which may be expressed only in the future when a cell will be faced with a situation in which its repair capacity will have to function to its full capability was developed. Cells are treated with trioxalen (trimethylpsoralen, TMP) and near ultraviolet light (NUV), bringing about an almost complete cessation of semiconservative DNA synthesis, 99.5 to 99.8 % inhibition. This method enabled the accurate measurement of incorporation of labelled thymidine into DNA following assaults by radiation or chemicals, indicating that repair synthesis is occurring. The method has been found suitable for the following cells: human fibroblasts, human breast cancer cells, chinese hamster V-79 cells, human lymphocytes. Since the method is applicable also for lymphocytes, it will enable carrying out a world-wide interlaboratory comparative study in which the range of 'repair capacity' of 'normal healthy' humans will be established. Individuals showing no repair capacity will not be permitted to be exposed to any level of radiation above natural background. These are the persons 'at risk' from radiation, while the general public, showing normal repair capacity may be considered safe from the effects of low-level radiations. (B.G.)

METHODOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF STUDYING THE PROBLEM OF PERCEPTION IN FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ PROFESSIONAL TRAINING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Bo

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In the article the methodological analysis of problem of perception in future music teachers’ professional training is presented. The author of the article analyses works of outstanding scientists in philosophy, psychology, and art education. The hierarchical system of musical perception options is revealed. A methodological foundation is supported by consideration of the following modern research in specialty – a theory and methodology of musical study that gives proper appearance and circumstantiality to the presented material. Studying the vocal and choral researches in the field of forming the valued music art perception by future music teachers, an author sets an aim to present the methodological analysis of the problem of perception in future music teachers’ professional training. Realization of the system approach to updating the problem of forming the valued music art perception of future music teachers while being trained to vocal and choral work with senior pupils extends their artistic awareness; contributes to distinguishing art works, phenomena; to seeing their properties; to providing orientation in the informative content of music art works. The special attention is paid to revealing methodological principles of perception of category research in the aspect of the valued understanding images of music art works. As a result of analysing scientific sources on the issue of voice production the author of the article finds out that perception is densely related to transformation of external information, conditioning for forming images, operating category attention, memory, thinking, and emotions. The features of perception of maintaining vocal and choral studies and students’ extrapolation are analysed in the process of future professional activity with senior pupils in the aspects of perception and transformation of musical and intonation information, analysis, object perception, and interpretation in accordance with future

Status, near future and distant future of the Amsterdam electron scattering facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vries, C. de.

1982-01-01

The experimental program with the electron Medium Energy Accelerator (MEA), located in Amsterdam, has been started. The general design features of the accelerator and electron scattering facilities are summarised in an Appendix. Some aspects of the Amsterdam instrumentation are discussed which have shown to be of importance from the point of view of flexibility, reproducibility, ease of tuning for high resolution and other time-saving elements. As such they are believed to be of importance for the design of future - especially third generation - facilities. Some of the on-going and near future experiments are presented, emphasizing those which have become within experimental reach due to the advanced level of instrumentation. Finally preliminary ideas are presented on how to increase the accelerator duty factor in the distant future by adding a pulse stretcher device, while maintaining all of the present buildings and 500 MeV equipment. (Auth.)

Sea level report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, M.L.

1979-01-01

Study of Cenozoic Era sea levels shows a continual lowering of sea level through the Tertiary Period. This overall drop in sea level accompanied the Pleistocene Epoch glacio-eustatic fluctuations. The considerable change of Pleistocene Epoch sea level is most directly attributable to the glacio-eustatic factor, with a time span of 10 5 years and an amplitude or range of approximately 200 m. The lowering of sea level since the end of the Cretaceous Period is attributed to subsidence and mid-ocean ridges. The maximum rate for sea level change is 4 cm/y. At present, mean sea level is rising at about 3 to 4 mm/y. Glacio-eustacy and tectono-eustacy are the parameters for predicting sea level changes in the next 1 my. Glacio-eustatic sea level changes may be projected on the basis of the Milankovitch Theory. Predictions about tectono-eustatic sea level changes, however, involve predictions about future tectonic activity and are therefore somewhat difficult to make. Coastal erosion and sedimentation are affected by changes in sea level. Erosion rates for soft sediments may be as much as 50 m/y. The maximum sedimentation accumulation rate is 20 m/100 y

Mental time travel to the future might be reduced in sleep.

Science.gov (United States)

Speth, Jana; Schloerscheidt, Astrid M; Speth, Clemens

2017-02-01

We present a quantitative study of mental time travel to the future in sleep. Three independent, blind judges analysed a total of 563 physiology-monitored mentation reports from sleep onset, REM sleep, non-REM sleep, and waking. The linguistic tool for the mentation report analysis is based on established grammatical and cognitive-semantic theories and has been validated in previous studies. Our data indicate that REM and non-REM sleep must be characterized by a reduction in mental time travel to the future, which would support earlier physiological evidence at the level of brain function. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A study of current world telecommunications and a projection of the future

Science.gov (United States)

Karageorgis, Costas

1992-09-01

Telecommunications today are important factors in economic and social progress. The last decades of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st have been characterized as the Information Age. Telecommunications, the movement of information through distances, is absolutely critical to the economic and military survival of nations. This thesis is an attempt to predict the future of telecommunications, by studying and analyzing the past and present. First it examines the meaning of telecommunications today and some basics of information transmission. The current status of telecommunications is then presented, by examining the regional profiles as they are divided by the International Telecommunications Union. A number of statistical studies are given, which present a thorough picture of current world telecommunications. In an effort to predict future industry trends, the competition among the three largest telecommunications markets, U.S.A., Japan and the European Community, is also considered by looking at their present telecommunications industry, the efforts they make to improve their technology, and their plans for future investment. Finally, some major technological trends including BISDN, the use of fiber technology in the communications loop, and the use of solitons are examined. The new Metropolitan Area Network Protocol, FDDI-2 is also reviewed.

Radiation doses from the transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark. A model study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-05-01

The radiation doses modelled for transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark, demonstrates that the risk associated with road and sea transport should not limit the future selection of a location of the repository. From a safety perspective both road and sea transport seem to be feasible modes of transport. Although the modelling in most cases is performed conservatively, the modelled doses suggest that both transport methods can be carried out well within the national dose limits. Additionally, the dose levels associated with the modelled accident scenarios are low and the scenarios are thus found to be acceptable taken the related probabilities into account. (LN)

Radiation doses from the transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark. A model study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2011-05-15

The radiation doses modelled for transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark, demonstrates that the risk associated with road and sea transport should not limit the future selection of a location of the repository. From a safety perspective both road and sea transport seem to be feasible modes of transport. Although the modelling in most cases is performed conservatively, the modelled doses suggest that both transport methods can be carried out well within the national dose limits. Additionally, the dose levels associated with the modelled accident scenarios are low and the scenarios are thus found to be acceptable taken the related probabilities into account. (LN)

Futuring for Future Ready Librarians

Science.gov (United States)

Figueroa, Miguel A.

2018-01-01

Futurists and foresight professionals offer several guiding principles for thinking about the future. These principles can help people to think about the future and become more powerful players in shaping the preferred futures they want for themselves and their communities. The principles also fit in well as strategies to support the Future Ready…

Exchange Rates’ Effect on Spot and Futures Equity Index Markets: A Study on Borsa Istanbul

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayben Koy

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the linkages between the foreign exchange rates, spot equity index and equity index futures. The study aims to investi-gate whether there is difference between the spot and futures markets in the scope of relation with the foreign exchange rates’ returns and which leads the other. The relationships are examined by using the vector autoregression (VAR model, impulse-response functions, variance decomposition and Granger Causality tests. The sample of the study consists of US dollar to Turkish Lira rate (USD/TRY, Euro to Turkish Lira rate (EUR/TRY, BIST 30 Index and BIST 30 Index Futures. The data of the study includes the period between January 2011 and December 2014 with daily data range. Our results have evidence that the foreign exchange rate markets in Turkey are driven by the equity market.

Study and Analysis of a Natural Reference Frame Current Controller for a Multi-Level H-Bridge Power Converter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ciobotaru, Mihai; Iov, Florin; Zanchetta, P.

2008-01-01

will be needed in order to control the power flow and to ensure proper and secure operation of this future grid with an increased level of renewable power. These power converters must be able to provide intelligent power management as well as ancillary services. This paper presents an analysis of the natural...... reference frame controller, based on proportional-resonant (PR) technique, for a multi-level H-bridge power converter for Universal and Flexible Power Management in Future Electricity Network. The proposed method is tested in terms of harmonic content in the Point of Common Coupling (PCC), voltage...

A Land-use Approach for Capturing Future Trip Generating Poles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iraklis Stamos

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Changes in the usage of a particular urban or regional area have immediate effects on transportation, such as the development of a new multimodal terminal within a city, or the creation of a business park in its outskirts. Thus far, this correlation has been under-researched at a national level in Greece. As a result, its effects on trip generation and passenger flows has been underestimated at the planning level, leading to the implementation of projects that are neither viable nor sustainable. This paper proposes that land use changes ought to be considered in tandem with transport-related changes at the planning stage. To this effect, we present a three-step methodology for an integrated approach to capturing future trip generation: the identification of future trip-generating poles within the study area; the development of scenarios related to the probability of these changes occurring and their potential magnitude; an estimation of future trends in passenger flows. The methodology is applied to the Metropolitan area of Thessaloniki, Greece. Using data obtained from development plans, national statistical services and research projects’ and studies’ findings, we estimate future trip-generation subsequent to land use change. Data is processed and evaluated by a local experts’ group, representing various key-disciplines of the area’s planning stakeholders.

Beyond speculative robot ethics: A vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Plas, A.P. van der; Smits, M.; Wehrmann, C.

2010-01-01

In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to

Gender and Medical Leadership: Student Perceptions and Implications for Developing Future Leaders in Primary and Secondary Care--a Pilot Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Crolla, Elizabeth; O'Sullivan, Helen; Bogg, Jan

2011-10-01

To explore perceptions of leadership in undergraduate medical students. A quantitative pilot study; anonymous online survey. All undergraduates were invited to participate from one UK medical school; 469 students participated. The survey used Likert scales and open and closed questions. Lack of self-confidence and perceptions of women leaders were issues for undergraduates. A significant number of male undergraduates rated women less able to perform 10 of 12 attributes of leadership. Furthermore, male undergraduates showed greater ambition towards future leadership, with 42.2% males compared to 21.7% females strongly agreeing that they saw themselves in a position of leadership in the future. Networking and tradition were also seen as barriers to females gaining the highest office in the student medical society. The importance of embedding leadership in the curriculum was highlighted by both genders. CONCLUSIONS Barriers to progression still need to be investigated and removed especially because women are expected to comprise the majority of the medical workforce by 2017. There needs to be greater emphasis on mentoring and role models at the undergraduate level and beyond and more awareness of leadership in curricula at all levels. These changes should ultimately improve confidence and change the perception of women in the medical workforce.

Rational reference levels for Pacific Coast radioactive pollution studies supplied by samples from northern Baja California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Folsom, T.R.

1974-01-01

Background levels of radioactivity in the marine environment along the Pacific Coast are at present extremely low. However, these certainly will rise along with the growth of coastal populations and with the increased use of nuclear energy. It would be desirable to anticipate where and how fast concentrations of artificial radioactivities may reach unacceptable levels in coastal water. Successful prediction of this sort requires knowing how the ocean responds, in given regions, to specific inputs. Fortunately, some of the fate of a large class of radioactive pollutants that must be faced in the future may be inferred from careful studies during the past 20 years of the behavior of certain constituents of nuclear fallout that have entered the ocean along the coasts of California and Baja California. (CH)

Thirty Years of Social Science Research on High-Level Nuclear Waste: Achievements and Future Challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solomon, Barry D.; Andren, Mats; Strandberg, Urban

2010-09-01

Research on high-level nuclear waste management has focused on technical and scientific issues since the U.S. National Academy of Sciences first studied the problem in the mid 1950s and recommended long-term disposal in deep salt formations. In this review, we trace the development of the problem's definition and its associated research since socioeconomic, political and policy issues were first given consideration and nuclear waste management became recognized as more than a technical issue. Three time periods are identified. First, from the mid 1970s to early 1980s, initial research explored institutional dimensions of nuclear waste, including ethics. The second period began in the early 1980s with a concerted effort to solve the problem and site nuclear waste repositories, and ended in the mid 1990s with minimal progress in the U.S. and general stalemate in Asia and Europe (with the notable exception of Sweden). This phase accelerated research on risk perception and stigma of nuclear waste, and elevated a focus on public trust. Great attention was given to repository siting conflicts, while minimal attention was placed on ethics, equity, political systems, and public participation. The last period, since the mid 1990s, has been characterized by continuing political stalemate and increased attention to public participation, political systems and international solutions. Questions of ethics have been given renewed attention, while research on risk perceptions and siting conflicts continues. We frame these periods in a broader context of the shifting role of applied social scientists. The paper concludes with a general discussion of this research area and prospects for future research

Thirty Years of Social Science Research on High-Level Nuclear Waste: Achievements and Future Challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Solomon, Barry D. (Dept. of Social Sciences, Michigan Technological Univ., Houghton (United States)), e-mail: bdsolomo@mtu.edu; Andren, Mats; Strandberg, Urban (Center for Public Sector Research, Univ. of Goeteborg, Goeteborg (Sweden))

2010-09-15

Research on high-level nuclear waste management has focused on technical and scientific issues since the U.S. National Academy of Sciences first studied the problem in the mid 1950s and recommended long-term disposal in deep salt formations. In this review, we trace the development of the problem's definition and its associated research since socioeconomic, political and policy issues were first given consideration and nuclear waste management became recognized as more than a technical issue. Three time periods are identified. First, from the mid 1970s to early 1980s, initial research explored institutional dimensions of nuclear waste, including ethics. The second period began in the early 1980s with a concerted effort to solve the problem and site nuclear waste repositories, and ended in the mid 1990s with minimal progress in the U.S. and general stalemate in Asia and Europe (with the notable exception of Sweden). This phase accelerated research on risk perception and stigma of nuclear waste, and elevated a focus on public trust. Great attention was given to repository siting conflicts, while minimal attention was placed on ethics, equity, political systems, and public participation. The last period, since the mid 1990s, has been characterized by continuing political stalemate and increased attention to public participation, political systems and international solutions. Questions of ethics have been given renewed attention, while research on risk perceptions and siting conflicts continues. We frame these periods in a broader context of the shifting role of applied social scientists. The paper concludes with a general discussion of this research area and prospects for future research

Focus on the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanner, M.S.

1988-01-01

An assessment is made of what was learned from Halley and recommendations are made for future directions for infrared studies of comets and supporting lab investigations. The following issues are addressed: (1) What steps can be taken to achieve consistent interpretation of Halley infrared data; (2) How successful has the Halley Watch been for infrared studies; (3) What supporting lab research is needed; (4) What are the key infrared observations needed for future comets; and (5) How do current and future NASA programs relate to comet studies

Future demands highly integrated solutions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mangler, Andreas [Rutronik Elektronische Bauelemente GmbH, Ispringen (Germany). Strategic Marketing

2010-07-01

The future energy supply with a high number of decentral power plants depends on the use of innovative system technology. It is a precondition for a well-functioning grid and power management over all voltage levels. (orig.)

Study of nuclear level densities for exotic nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nasrabadi, M. N.; Sepiani, M.

2012-01-01

Nuclear level density is one of the properties of nuclei with widespread applications in astrophysics and nuclear medicine. Since there has been little experimental and theoretical research on the study of nuclei which are far from stability line, studying nuclear level density for these nuclei is of crucial importance. Also, as nuclear level density is an important input for nuclear research codes, hence studying the methods for calculation of this parameter is essential. Besides introducing various methods and models for calculating nuclear level density for practical applications, we used exact spectra distribution (SPDM) for determining nuclear level density of two neutron and proton enriched exotic nuclei with the same mass number.

Enabling the MLSpOC (Multi-Level Space Operations Center) of the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Missal, D.

2012-09-01

accredited today at multiple sites both CONUS and OCONUS. It is designed to assist information systems developers achieve DCID 6/3 Protection Level 4 or 5 (PL4 or PL5) or DoD SABI C&A for SECRET-to-UNCLASSIFIED systems (PL3). The product is on the DoD/DNI Unified Cross-domain Management Office's (UCDMO) Baseline of accredited solutions, and is the only solution on the Baseline which the Government considers to be an "All-in-One" approach to the Cross-domain Security challenge. Our solution is also the only PL-4 Cloud in existence and that is deployed and operational in the entire world today (at DIA). The Space marketplace is a very unique cross-domain challenge, as a need exists for Unclassified SSA Data Sharing at a deeper and more fundamental level than anywhere else in the IC or DoD. For instance, certain Agencies and/or Programs have a requirement to share information with Partner Nations that are not considered to be "friendly" (e.g. China). Our Solution is the ONLY solution in the world today that's achieved C&A, and that is uniquely positioned to enable the Multi-level Space Operations Center (MLSpOC) of the Future.

A pilot investigation to optimise methods for a future satiety preload study

OpenAIRE

Hobden, Mark R.; Guérin-Deremaux, Laetitia; Commane, Daniel M.; Rowland, Ian; Gibson, Glenn R.; Kennedy, Orla B.

2017-01-01

Background Preload studies are used to investigate the satiating effects of foods and food ingredients. However, the design of preload studies is complex, with many methodological considerations influencing appetite responses. The aim of this pilot investigation was to determine acceptability, and optimise methods, for a future satiety preload study. Specifically, we investigated the effects of altering (i) energy intake at a standardised breakfast (gender-specific or non-gender specific), an...

Performance of Modular Prefabricated Architecture: Case Study-Based Review and Future Pathways

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fred Edmond Boafo

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Even though tightened building energy efficiency standards are implemented periodically in many countries, existing buildings continually consume a momentous quota of the total primary energy. Energy efficiency solutions range from material components to bulk systems. A technique of building construction, referred to as prefabricated architecture (prefab, is increasing in reputation. Prefab encompasses the offsite fabrication of building components to a greater degree of finish as bulk building structures and systems, and their assembly on-site. In this context, prefab improves the speed of construction, quality of architecture, efficiency of materials, and worker safety, while limiting environmental impacts of construction, as compared to conventional site-built construction practices. Quite recently, a 57 story skyscraper was built in 19 days using prefabricated modules. From the building physics point of view, the bulk systems and tighter integration method of prefab minimizes thermal bridges. This study seeks to clearly characterize the levels of prefab and to investigate the performance of modular prefab; considering acoustic constrain, seismic resistance, thermal behavior, energy consumption, and life cycle analysis of existing prefab cases and, thus, provides a dynamic case study-based review. Generally, prefab can be categorized into components, panels (2D, modules (3D, hybrids, and unitized whole buildings. On average, greenhouse gas emissions from conventional construction were higher than for modular construction, not discounting some individual discrepancies. Few studies have focused on monitored data on prefab and occupants’ comfort but additional studies are required to understand the public’s perception of the technology. The scope of the work examined will be of interest to building engineers, manufacturers, and energy experts, as well as serve as a foundational reference for future study.

Citizen involvement in future drug R&D

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møldrup, Claus; Morgall, Janine Marie; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna

2000-01-01

This article adopts a prospective approach in an attempt to explore the potential benefit of citizen involvement in decision making concerning future drug R&D. This is one of the first Delphi studies to fully utilize internet technology to collect and process data. The results show an increasing...... individual autonomy among respondents, which also affects the drug R&D process in general. Human, liberal and ethical values are reported as crucial values to citizens. On this basis, respondents reported that patient organizations, representative citizen groups and ethical councils can contribute...... with important input to ensure these values in decision making concerning future drug R&D. Paying attention to citizen needs, demands and ideas may protect the research, development and eventual marketing of unacceptable drugs on a societal and ethical level....

Status of the Future Circular Collider Study

Science.gov (United States)

Benedikt, Michael

2016-03-01

Following the 2013 update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics, the international Future Circular Collider (FCC) Study has been launched by CERN as host institute, to design an energy frontier hadron collider (FCC-hh) in a new 80-100 km tunnel with a centre-of-mass energy of about 100 TeV, an order of magnitude beyond the LHC's, as a long-term goal. The FCC study also includes the design of a 90-350 GeV high-luminosity lepton collider (FCC-ee) installed in the same tunnel, serving as Higgs, top and Z factory, as a potential intermediate step, as well as an electron-proton collider option (FCC-he). The physics cases for such machines will be assessed and concepts for experiments will be developed in time for the next update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics by the end of 2018. The presentation will summarize the status of machine designs and parameters and discuss the essential technical components to be developed in the frame of the FCC study. Key elements are superconducting accelerator-dipole magnets with a field of 16 T for the hadron collider and high-power, high-efficiency RF systems for the lepton collider. In addition the unprecedented beam power presents special challenges for the hadron collider for all aspects of beam handling and machine protection. First conclusions of geological investigations and implementation studies will be presented. The status of the FCC collaboration and the further planning for the study will be outlined.

Increased Visceral Adipose Tissue Is an Independent Predictor for Future Development of Atherogenic Dyslipidemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, You-Cheol; Fujimoto, Wilfred Y; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Kahn, Steven E; Leonetti, Donna L; Boyko, Edward J

2016-02-01

Atherogenic dyslipidemia is frequently observed in persons with a greater amount of visceral adipose tissue (VAT). However, it is still uncertain whether VAT is independently associated with the future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. The aim of this study was to determine whether baseline and changes in VAT and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) are associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia independent of baseline lipid levels and standard anthropometric indices. Community-based prospective cohort study with 5 years of follow-up. A total of 452 Japanese Americans (240 men, 212 women), aged 34-75 years were assessed at baseline and after 5 years of follow-up. Abdominal fat areas were measured by computed tomography. Atherogenic dyslipidemia was defined as one or more abnormalities in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, or non-HDL cholesterol levels. Baseline VAT and change in VAT over 5 years were independently associated with log-transformed HDL cholesterol, log-transformed triglyceride, and non-HDL cholesterol after 5 years (standardized β = -0.126, 0.277, and 0.066 for baseline VAT, respectively, and -0.095, 0.223, and 0.090 for change in VAT, respectively). However, baseline and change in SAT were not associated with any future atherogenic lipid level. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, incremental change in VAT (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.73 [1.20-2.48]; P = .003), triglycerides (4.01 [1.72-9.33]; P = .001), HDL cholesterol (0.32 [0.18-0.58]; P dyslipidemia independent of age, sex, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance, body mass index (BMI), change in BMI, SAT, and baseline atherogenic lipid levels. Baseline and change in VAT were independent predictors for future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. However, BMI, waist circumference, and SAT were not associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia.

Current and future industrial energy service characterizations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krawiec, F.; Thomas, T.; Jackson, F.; Limaye, D.R.; Isser, S.; Karnofsky, K.; Davis, T.D.

1980-10-01

Current and future energy demands, end uses, and cost used to characterize typical applications and resultant services in the industrial sector of the United States and 15 selected states are examined. A review and evaluation of existing industrial energy data bases was undertaken to assess their potential for supporting SERI research on: (1) market suitability analysis, (2) market development, (3) end-use matching, (3) industrial applications case studies, and (4) identification of cost and performance goals for solar systems and typical information requirements for industrial energy end use. In reviewing existing industrial energy data bases, the level of detail, disaggregation, and primary sources of information were examined. The focus was on fuels and electric energy used for heat and power purchased by the manufacturing subsector and listed by 2-, 3-, and 4-digit SIC, primary fuel, and end use. Projections of state level energy prices to 1990 are developed using the energy intensity approach. The effects of federal and state industrial energy conservation programs on future industrial sector demands were assessed. Future end-use energy requirements were developed for each 4-digit SIC industry and were grouped as follows: (1) hot water, (2) steam (212 to 300/sup 0/F, each 100/sup 0/F interval from 300 to 1000/sup 0/F, and greater than 1000/sup 0/F), and (3) hot air (100/sup 0/F intervals). Volume I details the activities performed in this effort.

Episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking: intersections between memory and decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Schacter, Daniel L; Benoit, Roland G; De Brigard, Felipe; Szpunar, Karl K

2015-01-01

This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one's personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one's personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future lighting and the appearance of cities at night: A case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Rankel

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Future lighting solutions based on solid state lighting will transform the appearance of cities at night. They can be positioned and used in an urban environment in numerous ways. This article studies whether their future use in general outdoor lighting will positively affect people’s acceptance of urban space illuminated in this way. Two different lighting concepts were formed based on the innovative use of solid state lighting solutions. The first concept is based on plane lighting, and the second is based on a detailed depiction of architectural and urban elements. Lighting proposals were designed for five different city locations. They consider not only functional needs, but also urban planning and the architectural aspects of illumination. I present my study of the underlying core effects on the respondents through their assessment of the affective quality of graphic representations. My findings indicate that the respondents strongly agree with the assessment of the “pleasantness” and “arousal” variables of most proposals. However, the statistics show characteristic differences between the answers of both variables for both concepts. Direct comparison of the two concepts shows that the respondents’ attitudes towards a certain lighting concept also depend on their location in the city. This article emphasises the importance of the appearance of a city at night in developing future lighting strategies based on solid state light sources.

Valuing future citizens' values regarding risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, Patricia

2006-01-01

Valuing present citizen's values regarding the risks they face is an important aspect of risk assessment and risk acceptability. Conferences like VALDOR are held for this reason. Governments like Sweden have national referendums on various risk-prone enterprises. The results of these referendums can determine the future of these programs. In the United States, when guidelines are set for determining acceptable levels of risk, the relevant federal agencies are often required to provide a comment period regarding proposed guidelines in order to ascertain the judgments, including the weights place on certain values, of individual members of society as well as stakeholder groups. After the comment period ends, the agency decides on the acceptable level of risk, taking into account the comments from present citizens. Do we also have a duty to value the not-yet-existing values of future citizens, especially if the risks created by the activities of present citizens extend into the future to citizens not yet living? If so, are there any circumstances which entitle us to de-value those not-yet-existing values. In this paper, I ground my discussion of the question of valuing future citizens' values in one of the areas of focus of the VALDOR conference: nuclear waste management and specifically the question facing the United States' program regarding an acceptable dose standard associated with the release of radioactivity into the biosphere from an underground repository. The underlying conference theme to which this discussion may be attached is community environmental justice as it applies to future citizens. I focus on the role that uncertainty plays is providing justice between present and future citizens

Valuing future citizens' values regarding risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, Patricia [Creighton Univ., Omaha (United States). College of Arts and Sciences/Philosophy

2006-09-15

Valuing present citizen's values regarding the risks they face is an important aspect of risk assessment and risk acceptability. Conferences like VALDOR are held for this reason. Governments like Sweden have national referendums on various risk-prone enterprises. The results of these referendums can determine the future of these programs. In the United States, when guidelines are set for determining acceptable levels of risk, the relevant federal agencies are often required to provide a comment period regarding proposed guidelines in order to ascertain the judgments, including the weights place on certain values, of individual members of society as well as stakeholder groups. After the comment period ends, the agency decides on the acceptable level of risk, taking into account the comments from present citizens. Do we also have a duty to value the not-yet-existing values of future citizens, especially if the risks created by the activities of present citizens extend into the future to citizens not yet living? If so, are there any circumstances which entitle us to de-value those not-yet-existing values. In this paper, I ground my discussion of the question of valuing future citizens' values in one of the areas of focus of the VALDOR conference: nuclear waste management and specifically the question facing the United States' program regarding an acceptable dose standard associated with the release of radioactivity into the biosphere from an underground repository. The underlying conference theme to which this discussion may be attached is community environmental justice as it applies to future citizens. I focus on the role that uncertainty plays is providing justice between present and future citizens.

Methods for diagnosing the level of preparedness of future specialists of physical education and sports unto the organization labour staff of youth sports school

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Perepletchikov D.A.

2010-03-01

Full Text Available The theoretical questions of determination of level of readiness of future specialists are examined to organization of activity of child's sporting schools. The plan of creation of structural functional model of readiness of specialists is presented to organization of activity of child's sporting schools. Procedure of determination of specific gravity of factors of professional readiness of specialists is described to organization of activity of child's sporting schools. The qualimetry vehicle of determination of level of their professional readiness is given. The general view of form of expert estimation of this readiness is presented.

Influence of school-level and family-level variables on Chinese college students' aggression.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Jiawei; Yang, Jiarun; Yu, Yunmiao; Wang, Lin; Han, Dong; Zhu, Xiongzhao; He, Jincai; Qiu, Xiaohui; Yang, Xiuxian; Qiao, Zhengxue; Sui, Hong; Yang, Yanjie

2017-08-01

With the frequent occurrence of campus violence, scholars have devoted increasing attention to college students' aggression. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of aggression in Chinese university students and identify factors that could influence their aggression. We can thus find methods to reduce the incidence of college students' aggression in the future. A multi-stage stratified sampling procedure was used to select university students (N = 4565) aged 16-25 years in Harbin. The Aggression Questionnaire, the Adolescent Self-Rating Life Events Checklist and the Social Support Revalued Scale were used to collect data. Females reported lower levels of aggression than males (p aggression, and the model was highly significant (R 2  = .233, Ad R 2  = .230, p aggression is affected by gender, family-level and school-level variables. Aggression scores are significantly correlated with not only family-level or school-level variables independently, but their combination as well. We find that the risk factors for aggression include a dissatisfying profession, higher levels of study pressure, poor parental relationships, poor interpersonal relationships, the presence of siblings, punishment, health maladjustment, less subjective support, and lower levels of utilization of social support.

The Rare Cancer Network: ongoing studies and future strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmut Ozsahin

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The Rare Cancer Network (RCN was formed in the early 1990’s to create a global network that could pool knowledge and resources in the studies of rare malignancies whose infrequency prevented both their study with prospective clinical trials. To date, the RCN has initiated 74 studies resulting in 46 peer reviewed publications. The First International Symposium of the Rare Cancer Network took place in Nice in March of 2014. Status updates and proposals for new studies were heard for fifteen topics. Ongoing studies continue for cardiac sarcomas, thyroid cancers, glomus tumors, and adult medulloblastomas. New proposals were presented at the symposium for primary hepatic lymphoma, solitary fibrous tumors, Rosai-Dorfman disease, tumors of the ampulla of Vater, salivary gland tumors, anorectal melanoma, midline nuclear protein in testes carcinoma, pulmonary lymphoepithelioma-like carcinoma, adenoid cystic carcinoma of the trachea, osteosarcomas of the mandible, and extra-cranial hemangiopericytoma. This manuscript presents the abstracts of those proposals and updates on ongoing studies, as well a brief summary of the vision and future of the RCN.

Leisure time computer use and adolescent bone health--findings from the Tromsø Study, Fit Futures: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Winther, Anne; Ahmed, Luai Awad; Furberg, Anne-Sofie; Grimnes, Guri; Jorde, Rolf; Nilsen, Ole Andreas; Dennison, Elaine; Emaus, Nina

2015-04-22

Low levels of physical activity may have considerable negative effects on bone health in adolescence, and increasing screen time in place of sporting activity during growth is worrying. This study explored the associations between self-reported screen time at weekends and bone mineral density (BMD). In 2010/2011, 1038 (93%) of the region's first-year upper-secondary school students (15-18 years) attended the Tromsø Study, Fit Futures 1 (FF1). A follow-up survey (FF2) took place in 2012/2013. BMD at total hip, femoral neck and total body was measured as g/cm(²) by dual X-ray absorptiometry (GE Lunar prodigy). Lifestyle variables were self-reported, including questions on hours per day spent in front of television/computer during weekends and hours spent on leisure time physical activities. Complete data sets for 388/312 girls and 359/231 boys at FF1/FF2, respectively, were used in analyses. Sex stratified multiple regression analyses were performed. Many adolescents balanced 2-4 h screen time with moderate or high physical activity levels. Screen time was positively related to body mass index (BMI) in boys (p=0.002), who spent more time in front of the computer than girls did (ptime was adversely associated with BMDFF1 at all sites, and these associations remained robust to adjustments for age, puberty, height, BMI, physical activity, vitamin D levels, smoking, alcohol, calcium and carbonated drink consumption (ptime was also negatively associated with total hip BMD(FF2) (p=0.031). In contrast, girls who spent 4-6 h in front of the computer had higher BMD than the reference (time spent on screen-based sedentary activity was negatively associated with BMD levels; this relationship persisted 2 years later. Such negative associations were not present among girls. Whether this surprising result is explained by biological differences remains unclear. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please

History and future of the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies (MAPS).

Science.gov (United States)

Emerson, Amy; Ponté, Linnae; Jerome, Lisa; Doblin, Rick

2014-01-01

This article describes the teenage vision of the founder of the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies (MAPS) that humanity's future would be aided by the therapeutic and spiritual potential of psychedelic substances. The article traces the trajectory of MAPS from inception in 1986 to its present, noting future goals with respect to research, outreach, and harm reduction. MAPS was created as a non-profit psychedelic pharmaceutical company in response to the 1985 scheduling of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA). Overcoming many hurdles, MAPS developed the first double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of MDMA-assisted psychotherapy for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and plans for FDA prescription approval in 2021. MAPS' program of research expanded to include a trial of lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD)-assisted psychotherapy for anxiety when facing life-threatening illness, observational studies of ibogaine in the treatment of addiction, and studies of MDMA for social anxiety in people with autism spectrum disorders. MAPS meets the challenges of drug development through a clinical research team led by a former Novartis drug development professional experienced in the conduct, monitoring, and analysis of clinical trials. MAPS' harm-reduction efforts are intended to avoid backlash and build a post-prohibition world by assisting non-medical users to transform difficult psychedelic experiences into opportunities for growth.

How Adolescents Construct Their Future: The Effect of Loneliness on Future Orientation

Science.gov (United States)

Seginer, Rachel; Lilach, Efrat

2004-01-01

This study examined the effect of loneliness, gender, and two dimensions of prospective life domains on adolescent future orientation. Future orientation was studied in four prospective domains: social relations, marriage and family, higher education and work and career. These domains are described in terms of two dimensions: theme (relational vs.…

Future directions of defense programs high-level waste technology programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chee, T.C.; Shupe, M.W.; Turner, D.A.; Campbell, M.H.

1987-01-01

The Department of Energy has been managing high-level waste from the production of nuclear materials for defense activities over the last forty years. An objective for the Defense Waste and Transportation Management program is to develop technology which ensures the safe, permanent disposal of all defense radioactive wastes. Technology programs are underway to address the long-term strategy for permanent disposal of high-level waste generated at each Department of Energy site. Technology is being developed for assessing the hazards, environmental impacts, and costs of each long-term disposal alternative for selection and implementation. This paper addresses key technology development areas, and consideration of recent regulatory requirements associated with the long-term management of defense radioactive high-level waste

Strengthening Sustainability and Resiliency of a Future Force, Phase 1. FY2010-2011 Summer Study

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-01

Resiliency of a Future Force: Phase I Interim Report - 48 Please Enter Custom Water factor adjustments below: m Unit Level* (Gat/Ptisan/ Dti ...cost of mov- ing the consumables in terms of the assets required to move the commodity and the security Intra Theater Resupply: 4 Legs Army...Expeditionary Force-Logistics ResupplyDetails Legl Leg 2 Leg 3 Leg 4 Resupply Trip Legs Super FOB (Div)to Base Camp (bde) Base Camp (Bde) to FOB (Bn

Imagining the Future: Perspectives Among Youth and Caregivers in the Trans Youth Family Study

Science.gov (United States)

Katz-Wise, Sabra L.; Budge, Stephanie L.; Orovecz, Joe J.; Nguyen, Bradford; Nava-Coulter, Brett; Thomson, Katharine

2016-01-01

Future perspectives of transgender youth and their caregivers may be shaped by knowledge of discrimination and adverse mental health among transgender adults. Qualitative data from the Trans Youth Family Study were used to examine how transgender and gender nonconforming (TGN) youth and their caregivers imagine the youth's future. A community-based sample of 16 families (16 TGN youth, ages 7-18 years, and 29 caregivers) was recruited from two regions in the United States. Participants completed in-person qualitative interviews and surveys. Interview transcripts were analyzed using grounded theory methodology for coding procedures. Analyses yielded 104 higher order themes across 45 interviews, with eight prominent themes: comparing experiences with others, gender affirming hormones, gender affirming surgery, gender norms, questioning whether the youth is really transgender, expectations for romantic relationships, uncertainty about the future, and worries about physical and emotional safety. A conceptual model of future perspectives in TGN youth and caregivers is presented and clinical implications are discussed. PMID:28068129

The future bias in marketing : a longitudinal approach

OpenAIRE

Omland, Anne Line Holck

2011-01-01

This study set out to explore consumer responses to pre-launch advertising, i.e. the advertising of products prior to launch. According to the construal level theory (CLT) people’s representation of future objects and events change with temporal distance. Drawing inferences from CLT to marketing, consumers’ attraction towards forthcoming products is explained. Further, using theory on consumer judgments the effects of pre-launch advertising is explored over time. A longitudi...

Are Future Bureaucrats More Prosocial?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tepe, Markus; Vanhuysse, Pieter

2017-01-01

robust subject pool effects. Even after controlling for PSM, public administration students both behave more altruistically and display less merely strategic fairness than business students. And they behave more cooperatively than students of both business and law. These behavioral findings about future......This article explores the associations between self-reported Public Service Motivation (PSM), study choice, and observable prosocial behavior across three subject pools covering over 250 university students in Germany. We use laboratory experiments with monetary rewards to measure altruism......, fairness, strategic fairness, and cooperation towards public goods, and a post-experimental survey on subjects’ PSM. Higher levels of PSM are not associated with studying public administration but are positively associated with altruism, and negatively with strategic fairness. The experimental data reveals...

Moxie matters: associations of future orientation with active life expectancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2017-10-01

Being oriented toward the future has been associated with better future health. We studied associations of future orientation with life expectancy and the percentage of life with disability. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (n = 5249). Participants' average age in 1968 was 33.0. Six questions repeatedly measured future orientation, 1968-1976. Seven waves (1999-2011, 33,331 person-years) measured disability in activities of daily living for the same individuals, whose average age in 1999 was 64.0. We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death with multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, childhood health, and education. Using the probabilities, we created large populations with microsimulation, measuring disability in each month for each individual, age 55 through death. Life expectancy from age 55 for white men with high future orientation was age 77.6 (95% confidence interval 75.5-79.0), 6.9% (4.9-7.2) of those years with disability; results with low future orientation were 73.6 (72.2-75.4) and 9.6% (7.7-10.7). Comparable results for African American men were 74.8 (72.9-75.3), 8.1 (5.6-9.3), 71.0 (69.6-72.8), and 11.3 (9.1-11.7). For women, there were no significant differences associated with levels of future orientation for life expectancy. For white women with high future orientation 9.1% of remaining life from age 55 was disabled (6.3-9.9), compared to 12.4% (10.2-13.2) with low future orientation. Disability results for African American women were similar but statistically significant only at age 80 and over. High future orientation during early to middle adult ages may be associated with better health in older age.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Golledge, N R; Kowalewski, D E; Naish, T R; Levy, R H; Fogwill, C J; Gasson, E G W

2015-10-15

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

Science.gov (United States)

Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

2014-12-01

Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story

Making the Future Palpable

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Büscher, Monika; Kristensen, Margit; Mogensen, Preben Holst

2007-01-01

In this paper we describe experiences from a Future Laboratory. Future laboratories allow users to experiment with prototypes of future technologies in as realistic as possible conditions. We have devised this method because, to realize the potential of advanced ubiquitous computing technologies...... it is essential to anticipate and design for future practices, but for prospective users it is often difficult to imagine and articulate future practices and provide design specifications. They readily invent new ways of working in engagement with new technologies, through and, by facilitating as realistic...... as possible use of prototype future technologies in Future Laboratories designers and users can define and study both opportunities and constraints for design. We present 11 scenes from a Major Incidents Future Laboratory held in September 2005. In relation to each scene we point out key results. Many raise...

Design status of the NLC beam-delivery system and possible future studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimmermann, F.; Bowden, G.; Burke, D.

1996-10-01

The authors outline some highlights in the present design of the beam-delivery and removal system for the Next Linear Collider (NLC), and present a long list of possible or desirable future studies. On several of the listed items work has already been started since the Snowmass workshop. Other studies could be conducted, for example, in the framework of a conceptual design report (CDR)

Zymomonas mobilis: a novel platform for future biorefineries.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Ming Xiong; Wu, Bo; Qin, Han; Ruan, Zhi Yong; Tan, Fu Rong; Wang, Jing Li; Shui, Zong Xia; Dai, Li Chun; Zhu, Qi Li; Pan, Ke; Tang, Xiao Yu; Wang, Wen Guo; Hu, Qi Chun

2014-01-01

Biosynthesis of liquid fuels and biomass-based building block chemicals from microorganisms have been regarded as a competitive alternative route to traditional. Zymomonas mobilis possesses a number of desirable characteristics for its special Entner-Doudoroff pathway, which makes it an ideal platform for both metabolic engineering and commercial-scale production of desirable bio-products as the same as Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae based on consideration of future biomass biorefinery. Z. mobilis has been studied extensively on both fundamental and applied level, which will provide a basis for industrial biotechnology in the future. Furthermore, metabolic engineering of Z. mobilis for enhancing bio-ethanol production from biomass resources has been significantly promoted by different methods (i.e. mutagenesis, adaptive laboratory evolution, specific gene knock-out, and metabolic engineering). In addition, the feasibility of representative metabolites, i.e. sorbitol, bionic acid, levan, succinic acid, isobutanol, and isobutanol produced by Z. mobilis and the strategies for strain improvements are also discussed or highlighted in this paper. Moreover, this review will present some guidelines for future developments in the bio-based chemical production using Z. mobilis as a novel industrial platform for future biofineries.

Beyond speculative robot ethics: a vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Plas, Arjanna; Smits, Martijntje; Wehrmann, Caroline

2010-11-01

In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to some promising co-designed robot concepts in which jointly articulated moral guidelines are embedded. With our model, we think to have designed an interesting response on a recent call for a less speculative ethics of technology by encouraging discussions about the quality of positive and negative visions on the future of robotics.

Are children's activity levels determined by their genes or environment? A systematic review of twin studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abigail Fisher

2015-01-01

Conclusions: Although genetic influences may be expressed when children have brief opportunities for autonomous activity, activity levels in daily-life are predominantly explained by environmental factors. Future research should aim to identify key environmental drivers of childhood activity.

Study on spillover effect of copper futures between LME and SHFE using wavelet multiresolution analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2007-01-01

Research on information spillover effects between financial markets remains active in the economic community. A Granger-type model has recently been used to investigate the spillover between London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), however, possible correlation between the future price and return on different time scales have been ignored. In this paper, wavelet multiresolution decomposition is used to investigate the spillover effects of copper future returns between the two markets. The daily return time series are decomposed on 2n (n=1, ..., 6) frequency bands through wavelet multiresolution analysis. The correlation between the two markets is studied with decomposed data. It is shown that high frequency detail components represent much more energy than low-frequency smooth components. The relation between copper future daily returns in LME and that in SHFE are different on different time scales. The fluctuations of the copper future daily returns in LME have large effect on that in SHFE in 32-day scale, but small effect in high frequency scales. It also has evidence that strong effects exist between LME and SHFE for monthly responses of the copper futures but not for daily responses.

Future of fusion implementation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beardsworth, E.; Powell, J.R.

1978-01-01

For fusion to become available for commercial use in the 21st century, R and D must be undertaken now. But it is hard to justify these expenditures with a cost/benefit oriented assessment methodology, because of both the time-frame and the uncertainty of the future benefits. Focusing on the factors most relevant for current consideration of fusion's commercial prospects, i.e., consumption levels and the outcomes for fission, solar, and coal, many possible futures of the US energy system are posited and analyzed under various assumptions about costs. The Reference Energy System approach was modified to establish both an appropriate degree of detail and explicit time dependence, and a computer code used to organize the relevant data and to perform calculations of system cost (annual and discounted present value), resource use, and residuals that are implied by the consumptions levels and technology mix in each scenario. Not unreasonable scenarios indicate benefits in the form of direct cost savings, which may well exceed R and D costs, which could be attributed to the implementation of fusion

Future climate. Engineering solutions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferdinand, J.F.; Hagedorn-Rasmussen, P.; Fonnesbech, B.

2009-09-15

Future Climate Engineering Solutions - Joint Report is the common output and a documentation of more than 1 year's effort by 13 engineering associations - in 12 countries - to demonstrate how technologies can combat climate change. The report consists of three parts: Summaries of 10 national climate plans and technology prospects, 5 Key Common Findings, and a Climate Call from Engineers to create a new global climate treaty. The basic assumption of the project is recognition that GHG emissions, and their concentration in the atmosphere, must be reduced to a sustainable level. The project definition of a sustainable level is equivalent to the best-case stabilisation scenario which was presented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whereby the global mean temperature is most likely to stabilise at 2.0-2.4 deg. C. The Future Climate website www.futureclimate.info holds more information about the project, including possibility to download project material, including the full national climate plans.

Possible futures for the Mediterranean: A cross-cutting approach of foresight analysis studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SANNA Serena

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Which are the possible scenarios that await the Mediterranean by 2025? This question characterizes the Plan Bleu synthesis report developed in the framework of the Pegaso project – funded by the 7 thFramework Programme of the European Union and devoted to Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the Mediterranean and Black Sea. As one of the Regional Activity Centres of the United Nations Environment Programme’s Mediterranean Action Plan (UNEP/MAP and as an observatory of the environment and development in the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu carried out various prospective studies to identify the threats and opportunities that arise in relation to sustainable development in the region, and the possible policy responses that might be needed. Plan Bleu developed recently a transversal analysis, synthetizing several relevant prospective studies at the Mediterranean level. Starting from the “business as usual” and alternative scenarios offered by those studies, this synthesis develops a cross-cutting approach between different dimensions of change (demographic trends, climate change, globalization and topics (water, energy, coastal development, urbanization, tourism, maritime transportation. It also takes into account recent events and changes (i.e. global economic crisis, Arab Spring, institutional reforms whose impacts on the future political trends could not be ignored. On the one hand the synthesis gathers a critical collection of scenarios for the Mediterranean, as outlined by a range of recent prospective studies. On the other hand, taking into account seeds of change and inflections of current trends, the reflection raises the crucial perspective towards a new regional prospective study at the 2050 horizon.

Mercosur: past, present, and future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Paiva

2003-01-01

Full Text Available In March 2003, the Southern Common Market (Mercosur celebrated its twelfth anniversary. In twelve years, the bloc went from a substantially restricted trade structure to a practically free-trade area, with additional efforts in establishing a customs union and progressing toward a common market. Despite these advances, the integration process has experienced setbacks as the result of such different economic phenomena as the Asian financial crisis, Brazil's currency devaluation and, later, economic uncertainty in Argentina. Setbacks to the integration process create credibility issues and could jeopardize the future of the process. This paper discusses the current level of economic integration of Mercosur, the speed of the process, and the resulting mixed level of different stages of economic integration. It also discusses the main achievements in the last twelve years, identifies the shortcomings as well as the opportunities and challenges facing the bloc in the near future.

Future ecological studies of Brazilian headwater streams under global-changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Callisto

Full Text Available This paper results from discussions triggered during the "Stream Ecology Symposium" that took place at the XIII Congress of the Brazilian Society of Limnology in September of 2011 in Natal, Brazil. Based on our experiences, we have raised several questions regarding ecological studies of headwater streams facing threats under global-changes and proposed numerous subjects to be addressed in future studies in Brazil. These studies deal with the necessity of knowing species biology and the elaboration of models to assess changes (which implies the availability of time-series or large-scale data sets; the ecology of riparian zones and the interchange of materials and energy across the land-water boundaries; forest conversions and standardized sampling strategies and data treatment to assess global change.

The TSH levels and risk of hypothyroidism: Results from a population based prospective cohort study in an Iranian adult's population.

Science.gov (United States)

Aminorroaya, Ashraf; Meamar, Rokhsareh; Amini, Massoud; Feizi, Awat; Nasri, Maryam; Tabatabaei, Azamosadat; Faghihimani, Elham

2017-06-01

The aim of current study was to assess the relationship between serum TSH levels and hypothyroidism risk in the euthyroid population. In a population-based cohort study, a total of 615 individuals with a normal baseline TSH, from of total population (n=2254) in 2006, were followed up for 6years. TSH, total T4, thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), and thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) were measured. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated based on logistic regression. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis along with area under the curve (AUC) was used to prediction of future hypothyroidism. TSH level in 2006 was a significant predictor for overt hypothyroidism, in the total population (RR=3.5) and female (RR=1.37) (all, P valuehypothyroidism from euthyroid. However, this cut off was not observed when we included only negative TPO and TgAbs people in 2006. The RR of hypothyroidism increased gradually when TSH level increased from 2.06-3.6mIU/L to >3.6mIU/L in the total population and both sexes. In women, the risk of overt hypothyroidism was significantly higher in subjects with TSH above 3.6 than those subject with THS levels≤2.05 [RR: (CI95 %), 20.57(2.-207.04), P valuehypothyroidism in future. However, it was not applicable for people with negative TPOAb and negative TgAb. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Derivation of working levels for animal feedstuffs for use in the event of a future nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nisbet, A.; Woodman, R.; Brown, J.

1998-04-01

In the event of a future nuclear accident, European Council Food Intervention Levels (CFILs) would be legally binding for foodstuffs marketed in the UK. Practical guidance has been developed on the activity concentrations of radiocaesium and radiostrontium in animal feedstuffs that would give rise to concentrations equivalent to the relevant CFIL in the final animal product. The animals considered were dairy and beef cattle, lambs, pigs, broiler chickens and laying hens. Typical diets have been derived for each animal. The NRPB foodchain model FARMLAND has been used to predict activity concentrations in different feedstuffs for accidents occurring at different times of the year. The predicted concentrations were combined with the data on dietary composition, information on feed-to-product transfer and the relevant CFIL to estimate the corresponding Working levels in Animal Feedstuffs (WAFs). The calculations were carried out using a dedicated software system called SILAFOD. This flexible system can be used to carry out more specific assessments. A handbook that accompanies this report contains detailed information on animal diets, contributions from various feedstuffs to intakes of activity and the corresponding WAFs. The early phase after an accident and the longer-term phase are both considered. The work received partial financial support from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Radiological Safety and Nutrition Division. (author)

A non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for pricing wind power futures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benth, Fred Espen; Pircalabu, Anca

2018-01-01

generated assuming a recent level of installed capacity. Also, based on one year of observed prices for wind power futures with different delivery periods, we study the market price of risk. Generally, we find a negative risk premium whose magnitude decreases as the length of the delivery period increases....

To better know the biological behaviour of future nuclear materials: a need to maintain a good level of protection against ionising radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guillaumont, R.; Metivier, H.

2007-01-01

An important program of research, called 'Generation IV' is currently developed at an international level to prepare the launching of reactors for the future. Its objective is to satisfy the growing needs in electric power within the framework for a sustainable development. One of the major aspects of this program is the search and the development for new nuclear materials containing fissile/fertile isotopes. Unfortunately, one realizes today that for many compounds considered to be used to manufacture these materials, there are no radio-toxicologic data, allowing to the occupational physicist to evaluate the real risk in the event of contaminations and to prescribe adapted therapeutic de-corporation. An emergency revival of 'workplace' studies, where are or will be handled these compounds or materials is mandatory. The lesson of the past showed that the prevision in radioprotection was rather difficult and that an experimental validation of the behaviour of hazardous heavy elements both in vitro and in vivo was necessary. (authors)

A study of students’ travellers values and needs in order to establish futures patterns and insights

OpenAIRE

Elena Cavagnaro; Simona Staffieri

2015-01-01

Purpose – If the only viable future for tourism is sustainable tourism then ways should be sought to increase the demand for sustainable offers. The purpose of this paper is to explore whether sustainability values influence the travel needs of students. The aim is to discover cues in the present behaviour of young tourists that can enhance sustainable travel choices and therefore secure the future of the tourism industry. Moreover, the study provides a solid basis for predicting the future t...

High-level panel of experts to recommend future course for IAEA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Full text: A high-level panel of experts, charged by IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei with making an assessment of the challenges the IAEA will face up to the year 2020 and beyond, holds its initial meetings in Vienna 25 - 26 February. The Commission of Eminent Persons, under the chairmanship of former Mexican President, Ernesto Zedillo, includes 18 senior international figures, and will make recommendations on ways in which the Agency can prepare to meet its expanding workload. The Commission's findings are intended to stimulate further discussion - among Member States, between the States and the IAEA Secretariat, and by the broader public - about the future of the Agency and how best it can contribute in the coming years to the efforts of the international community to achieve development, peace and security, said IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei. The members of the Commission are: Dr. Ernesto Zedillo (Chairman) - Director of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization; former President of Mexico; Ambassador Oluyemi Adeniji - former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nigeria; former Member of the Board of Governors of the IAEA; Lakhdar Brahimi - Visiting Scholar at the Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, New Jersey; former UN Under-Secretary-General, Special Adviser to the Secretary-General, and Chair of the Panel on UN Peace Operations; Lajos Bokros - Professor of Economics and Public Policy, and Chief Operating Officer of the Central European University, Budapest, Hungary; Dr. Rajagopala Chidambaram - Principal Scientific Advisor to the Government of India; DAE Homi Bhabha Professor; former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission; former Director of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre; Senator Lamberto Dini - President of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Italian Senate; Gareth Evans - President and Chief Executive Officer, International Crisis Group, Brussels; former Australian Foreign Minister 1988-1998; former Minister for Resources and

Assuring future competence in nuclear safety in Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koskinen, K.

2004-01-01

To improve competence management at the regulatory body a competence analysis was carried out and a human resource plan for nuclear safety area for the near future was made. STUK studied carefully the models used in other public sector organisations and adjusted the method to its own purposes. The model used has four competence categories: substance related, management skills, common working skills and STUK related working skills. Substance related competences were defined and described at working unit level. Descriptions for the rest three categories were made at STUK level and those were common for all departments. Results of competence analysis are encouraging. Most competence areas are covered at proper level, some will need to be improved but none was totally missing. For the future challenges extra attention should be paid to knowledge management. Two separate plans were made on the basis of these results: plan for training regulatory personnel and HR-plan (at the first stage recruiting plan for next five years). It is STUK's experience that the competence analysis is worth the trouble. It gives the organisation and employees a common conception on its competences and on future needs. It also makes it easier to motivate all staff members to use their working hours on training and capability building. On the other hand it must be admitted that it takes resources and all employees have not been very anxious to do this. The results of competence analysis should lead to some improvement projects. The progress of improvement actions should be followed-up on regularly basis. It is important not to forget to communicate the results to employees

Future prospects for studies in the VUV-SX region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Kenichiro; Kitajima, Yoshinori

1989-09-01

This book carries papers presented at a workshop 'Future Prospects for Studies in the VUV-SX Region' held on March 22 and 23, 1989. The workshop focussed particularly on the promotion of research in the VUV and soft X-ray regions. Three sessions were held: Session 1 for studies in peripheral areas, Session 2 for theoretical studies, and Session 3 for recent developments. Session 1 covered five studies: 'Laser Spectroscopy: High-Resolution Observation of Highly Electronically Excited Gaseous Molecule', 'High-Resolution Electron Spectroscopy: Surface Phonon Spectroscopy', 'Experimental Study on Atoms and Molecules through Ion Trap', 'Basic Mechanism of Photo-Induced CVD', and 'Application of Circularly Polarized Light'. Session 2 covered five studies: 'Electronic State of High Tc Superconducting Oxide', 'Surface Condition and Electronic State', 'XES and XAS Study of Rare Earth Compound', 'Resonance Photoelectric Spectroscopy on Strongly Correlated Electronic System', and 'Circularly Polarized Light and Atomic Process in Soft X-Ray Region'. Session 3 covered six studies: 'Prospects of Application of Supercritical Liquid to Research on Physical Characteristics', 'Application of Orbit Radiation to Polarization Spectroscopy', 'XES Research for La Compounds', 'Characteristics of Ultra-Fine Particles', 'Surface Study by Angular-Resolution Photoelectric Spectroscopy', and 'EXAFS Study of Light Element'. (N.K.)

Future engineering skills, knowledge, and identity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kolmos, Anette

2006-01-01

What are the requirements engineers are going to meet in the future? We do not know – but we have some predictions based on the technological, scientific, and societal development. Normally, these requirement analyses are based on only the technological and scientific development. In this chapter......, this traditional approach will be supplemented with socio-cultural considerations concerning the development of future societies. The point is that it is no longer enough to base development of engineering skills on trends in technological and scientific development – even though this approach in undergoing...... as at an individual level. The chapter will end by analyzing if the existing engineering education contributes to the outline of future skills....

FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ PROFESSIONAL AND INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPMENT WHILE STUDYING CONDUCTING AND CHORAL DISCIPLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alla Kozyr

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the problem of professional and individual development of Art Institute students. The aim of the article is to disclose the effectiveness of organising future music teachers’ methodological training which causes their professional and individual development. There is an urgent necessity of implementing integrated knowledge system in musical and pedagogical education which requires greater coordination of the disciplines. The article gives a detailed analysis of future music teachers ‘theoretic and methodological training in the course of conducting and choral disciplines that takes place during the whole period of studying at Art Institutes and at Music and Pedagogics Faculties of Pedagogical Universities. The author claims that the course of conducting and choral disciplines helps overcome drawbacks of future teachers’ training to practice. But this course should be combined with vocal and instrumental training, the unity of these components promote to forming performance skills. It is shown that the main task of learning conducting and choral disciplines at Art Institutes and at Music and Pedagogics Faculties of Pedagogical Universities is directing students to the constant acmeological self-development. The basis for this is future teachers’ independent work that is supervised by tutors. Tutors should encourage students to have responsible attitude to the author’s text. The future conductor should have a habit of accurate reading of author’s text which is one of the preconditions of successful performance. In the article much attention is given to getting basic professional skills that involves training the leaders of school choral groups according to the following trends: studying music and theoretical materials thoroughly; mastering conducting techniques; learning vocal and choral technique and methodology of working with the choir. The author concludes that mastering the main professional skills means

How Should the Fires Network for the Future Force BDE Level UA be Structured?

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Ulloa, Juan

2004-01-01

... to all available fires in the area of operations. This monograph constitutes an exploratory study of and preliminary analysis of the effects of networking all available fires at the brigade level UA...

New High: A Future-Oriented Study of American Drug Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

physical health , leading to a decrease in morbidity and mortality from obesity. Nootropics on pharmacy shelves combat hunger, low energy, and...office of the future. 14. SUBJECT TERMS futures, megatrends, emerging technologies, drug policy, public health , war on drugs, forecasting, behavioral... health , scenarios, trends, innovation, regulation, policy, artificial intelligence, brain-computer interface, neural stimulation, nootropics

Emotion-driven level generation

OpenAIRE

Togelius, Julian; Yannakakis, Georgios N.

2016-01-01

This chapter examines the relationship between emotions and level generation. Grounded in the experience-driven procedural content generation framework we focus on levels and introduce a taxonomy of approaches for emotion-driven level generation. We then review four characteristic level generators of our earlier work that exemplify each one of the approaches introduced. We conclude the chapter with our vision on the future of emotion-driven level generation.

HOW FUTURE MANAGERS VIEW SOCIETAL CULTURE: A CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISON

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CATANA DOINA

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Our study aims at enriching the existing literature about the prospective managers view of an ideal societal value system and the existing cultural practices in their society. The findings about the students' perception on cultural practices and their expectations about societal culture are helpful in imagining the societal culture in its dynamics. The research sample consists of 727 students in business and engineering on undergraduate and graduate levels from Romania and Slovenia. The reason we have chosen to compare Romanian sample with the cultural profile of the "average" future manager from Slovenia is the scientific curiosity of finding out if there are signs of cultural convergence of Romania with a previous communist country, and an older member of European Union. In doing so, our study will hopefully broaden the body of knowledge about the cultural convergence (or divergence? between the former socialist countries joining European Union. The theoretical and methodological foundation is rooted in GLOBE international research project. Our findings revealed that at practices level,Romanians perceive significant higher Power Distance and significant lower mean value for Uncertainty Avoidance. At the expectations level, the Romanians and Slovenians are very similar in the desire concerning their societies orientation toward In group/Family Collectivism, Assertiveness and Performance Orientation, and record significant differenced in all the other societal values. The fact that for all the cultural expectations the future managers assign different mean values than for the correspondent practices make us expect that they will act to change their cultural environments. Still, the cultural orientation of Romanian future middle managers will differ in many regards from the Slovenian sample averages.

Internet of Things in Higher Education: A Study on Future Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Aldowah, Hanan; Rehman, Shafiq Ul; Ghazal, Samar; Naufal Umar, Irfan

2017-09-01

In the coming years, technology will impact the learning experience in many ways. Internet of Things (IoT) continues to confirm its important position in the context of Information and Communication Technologies and the development of society. With the support of IoT, institutions can enhance learning outcomes by providing more affluent learning experiences, improved operational efficiency, and by gaining real-time, actionable insight into student performance. The purpose of this study is to find out the potential of IoT in higher education and how to maximize its benefits and reducing the risks involved with it. Further efforts are necessary for releasing the full potential of IoT systems and technologies. Therefore, this paper presents a study about the impact of IoT on higher education especially universities. IoT stands to change dramatically the way universities work, and enhance student learning in many disciplines and at any level. It has huge potential for universities or any other educational institutions; if well prepared to ensure widespread and successful implementation by leadership, staff, and students. IoT needs development where universities can lead. Academics, researchers, and students are in a unique place to lead the discovery and development of IoT systems, devices, applications, and services. Moreover, this paper provides an evidences about the future of IoT in the higher education during the next few years, which have offered by a number of research organizations and enterprises. On the other hand, IoT also brings tremendous challenges to higher education. Hence, this paper also presents the perspective on the challenges of IoT in higher education.

Alcohol Demand, Future Orientation, and Craving Mediate the Relation Between Depressive and Stress Symptoms and Alcohol Problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Soltis, Kathryn E; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan E; Murphy, James G

2017-06-01

Elevated depression and stress have been linked to greater levels of alcohol problems among young adults even after taking into account drinking level. This study attempts to elucidate variables that might mediate the relation between symptoms of depression and stress and alcohol problems, including alcohol demand, future time orientation, and craving. Participants were 393 undergraduates (60.8% female, 78.9% White/Caucasian) who reported at least 2 binge-drinking episodes (4/5+ drinks for women/men, respectively) in the previous month. Participants completed self-report measures of stress and depression, alcohol demand, future time orientation, craving, and alcohol problems. In separate mediation models that accounted for gender, race, and weekly alcohol consumption, future orientation and craving significantly mediated the relation between depressive symptoms and alcohol problems. Alcohol demand, future orientation, and craving significantly mediated the relation between stress symptoms and alcohol problems. Heavy-drinking young adults who experience stress or depression are likely to experience alcohol problems, and this is due in part to elevations in craving and alcohol demand, and less sensitivity to future outcomes. Interventions targeting alcohol misuse in young adults with elevated levels of depression and stress should attempt to increase future orientation and decrease craving and alcohol reward value. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Futures Brokerages Face uncertain Future

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WANG PEI

2006-01-01

@@ 2005 was a quiet year for China's futures market.After four new trading products, including cotton, fuel oil and corn, were launched on the market in 2004, the development of the market seemed to stagnate. The trade value of the futures market totaled 13.4 trillion yuan (US$ 1.67 trillion) in 2005, down 8.5 percent year-on-year. Although the decrease is quite small and the trade value was still the second highest in the market's history, the majority of futures brokerage firms were running in the red. In some areas, up to 80 percent of futures companies made losses.

Climate change impact on future ocean acidification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNeil, Ben

2007-01-01

Full text: Elevated atmospheric C02 levels and associated uptake by the ocean is changing its carbon chemistry, leading to an acidification. The implications of future ocean acidification on the marine ecosystem are unclear but seemingly detrimental particularly to those organisms and phytoplankton that secrete calcium carbonate (like corals). Here we present new results from the Australian CSIRO General Circulation Model that predicts the changing nature of oceanic carbon chemistry in response to future climate change feedbacks (circulation, temperature and biological). We will discuss the implications of future ocean acidification and the potential implications on Australia's marine ecosystems

Reducing Future International Chemical and Biological Dangers.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haddal, Chad [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hernandez, Patricia Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Foley, John T. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-12-01

The International Biological and Chemical Threat Reduction Program at Sandia National Laboratories is developing a 15 - year technology road map in support the United States Government efforts to reduce international chemical and biological dangers . In 2017, the program leadership chartered an analysis team to explore dangers in the future international chemical and biological landscape through engagements with national security experts within and beyond Sandia to gain a multidisciplinary perspective on the future . This report offers a hi gh level landscape of future chemical and biological dangers based upon analysis of those engagements and provides support for further technology road map development.

The UAE healthy future study: a pilot for a prospective cohort study of 20,000 United Arab Emirates nationals.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdulle, Abdishakur; Alnaeemi, Abdullah; Aljunaibi, Abdullah; Al Ali, Abdulrahman; Al Saedi, Khaled; Al Zaabi, Eiman; Oumeziane, Naima; Al Bastaki, Marina; Al-Houqani, Mohammed; Al Maskari, Fatma; Al Dhaheri, Ayesha; Shah, Syed M; Loney, Tom; El-Sadig, Mohamed; Oulhaj, Abderrahim; Wareth, Leila Abdel; Al Mahmeed, Wael; Alsafar, Habiba; Hirsch, Benjamin; Al Anouti, Fatme; Yaaqoub, Jamila; Inman, Claire K; Al Hamiz, Aisha; Al Hosani, Ayesha; Haji, Muna; Alsharid, Teeb; Al Zaabi, Thekra; Al Maisary, Fatima; Galani, Divya; Sprosen, Tim; El Shahawy, Omar; Ahn, Jiyoung; Kirchhoff, Tomas; Ramasamy, Ravichandran; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Hayes, Richard; Sherman, Scott; Ali, Raghib

2018-01-05

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is faced with a rapidly increasing burden of non-communicable diseases including obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The UAE Healthy Future study is a prospective cohort designed to identify associations between risk factors and these diseases amongst Emiratis. The study will enroll 20,000 UAE nationals aged ≥18 years. Environmental and genetic risk factors will be characterized and participants will be followed for future disease events. As this was the first time a prospective cohort study was being planned in the UAE, a pilot study was conducted in 2015 with the primary aim of establishing the feasibility of conducting the study. Other objectives were to evaluate the implementation of the main study protocols, and to build adequate capacity to conduct advanced clinical laboratory analyses. Seven hundred sixty nine UAE nationals aged ≥18 years were invited to participate voluntarily in the pilot study. Participants signed an informed consent, completed a detailed questionnaire, provided random blood, urine, and mouthwash samples and were assessed for a series of clinical measures. All specimens were transported to the New York University Abu Dhabi laboratories where samples were processed and analyzed for routine chemistry and hematology. Plasma, serum, and a small whole blood sample for DNA extraction were aliquoted and stored at -80 °C for future analyses. Overall, 517 Emirati men and women agreed to participate (68% response rate). Of the total participants, 495 (95.0%), 430 (82.2%), and 492 (94.4%), completed the questionnaire, physical measurements, and provided biological samples, respectively. The pilot study demonstrated the feasibility of recruitment and completion of the study protocols for the first large-scale cohort study designed to identify emerging risk factors for the major non-communicable diseases in the region.

The First Intervention Study in Elder Self-Neglect: A Randomized Clinical Trial to Improve Vitamin D Levels

Science.gov (United States)

Burnett, Jason; Hochschild, Ann; Smith, Scott M.; Diamond, Pam; Stotts, Angela; Dyer, Carmel

2011-01-01

Despite high mortality rates, elder self-neglect is characterized by refusal of medical and social interventions. To date there have been no tested clinical interventions in elders who self-neglect. Previous research from the TEAM Institute has shown significantly low vitamin D levels in this population. This study aimed to determine the feasibility of a clinical intervention. Replacement of vitamin D was chosen because of its ease of administration and favorable safety profile. Methods: A randomized clinical trial using directly observed therapy of vitamin D was conducted using 50 elders, >65 years of age, with Adult Protective Services (APS) validated self-neglect. A staggered intervention with waiting controls was used to maximize statistical power. One-third (n=17) of the group was administered 50,000 IU vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol) monthly and the remainder (n=33) were administered 400 IU monthly. Serum 25-OH vitamin D was assessed at baseline and 5-months. Results: 69% agreed to participate in the study and of those n=40 (80%) remained at 5-months. At baseline, 12% (n=7) were deficient in vitamin D (vitamin D levels (vitamin D level was 59 nmol/L +25 (mean SD), and increased significantly to 72nmol/L +21 nmol/L at 5-months. Conclusion: These data are the first to provide evidence that clinical interventions are feasible in elders who self-neglect. The increase in vitamin D levels confirmed that the study personnel were able to successfully intervene community-dwelling elders with self-neglect. This study sets the precedent for future intervention and prevention studies

The present and future on surface analysis for corrosion study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohtsuka, Toshiaki

2015-01-01

Surface analysis for corrosion study was reviewed. For the study, the in-situ analysis was desired to describe the real feature. Light i.e., electromagnetic wave from gamma rays to infrared light has been used for the in-situ measurement of the corroded surface, although various ideas should be introduced for the study. For the application of the electromagnetic waves, a suitable window material and a suitable distance between the window and specimen surface depending on the properties of the wave must be selected. Electron spectroscopy including X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) is not applicable for the in-situ study and, however, it is very available for the corrosion study from the following points; elemental analysis, state analysis of the element, and microscopic analysis. In future, the tip enhance Raman scattering (TERS) for which the scanning probe microscopy (SPM) is combined with the surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) may be useful for the in-situ corrosion study. (author)

Selection of liquid-level monitoring method for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory inactive liquid low-level waste tanks, remedial investigation/feasibility study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-11-01

Several of the inactive liquid low-level waste (LLLW) tanks at Oak Ridge National Laboratory contain residual wastes in liquid or solid (sludge) form or both. A plan of action has been developed to ensure that potential environmental impacts from the waste remaining in the inactive LLLW tank systems are minimized. This document describes the evaluation and selection of a methodology for monitoring the level of the liquid in inactive LLLW tanks. Criteria are established for comparison of existing level monitoring and leak testing methods; a preferred method is selected and a decision methodology for monitoring the level of the liquid in the tanks is presented for implementation. The methodology selected can be used to continuously monitor the tanks pending disposition of the wastes for treatment and disposal. Tanks that are empty, are scheduled to be emptied in the near future, or have liquid contents that are very low risk to the environment were not considered to be candidates for installing level monitoring. Tanks requiring new monitoring equipment were provided with conductivity probes; tanks with existing level monitoring instrumentation were not modified. The resulting data will be analyzed to determine inactive LLLW tank liquid level trends as a function of time

Ozone depletion following future volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Eric Klobas, J.; Wilmouth, David M.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Anderson, James G.; Salawitch, Ross J.

2017-07-01

While explosive volcanic eruptions cause ozone loss in the current atmosphere due to an enhancement in the availability of reactive chlorine following the stratospheric injection of sulfur, future eruptions are expected to increase total column ozone as halogen loading approaches preindustrial levels. The timing of this shift in the impact of major volcanic eruptions on the thickness of the ozone layer is poorly known. Modeling four possible climate futures, we show that scenarios with the smallest increase in greenhouse gas concentrations lead to the greatest risk to ozone from heterogeneous chemical processing following future eruptions. We also show that the presence in the stratosphere of bromine from natural, very short-lived biogenic compounds is critically important for determining whether future eruptions will lead to ozone depletion. If volcanic eruptions inject hydrogen halides into the stratosphere, an effect not considered in current ozone assessments, potentially profound reductions in column ozone would result.

Know thyself: misperceptions of actual performance undermine achievement motivation, future performance, and subjective well-being.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Young-Hoon; Chiu, Chi-Yue; Zou, Zhimin

2010-09-01

Contrary to the popular assumption that self-enhancement improves task motivation and future performance, the authors propose that both inflated and deflated self-assessments of performance are linked to an increased likelihood of practicing self-handicapping and having relatively poor performance in future tasks. Consistent with this proposal, we found that irrespective of the level of actual performance, compared with accurate self-assessment, both inflated and deflated self-assessments of task performance are associated with a greater tendency to (a) practice self-handicapping (Study 1: prefer to work under distraction; Study 2: withhold preparatory effort), (b) perform relatively poorly in a subsequent task (Study 3), (c) have relatively low academic achievement (Study 4), and (d) report a relatively low level of subjective well-being (Study 5). The authors discuss these results in terms of their educational implications. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Imagining the future self: how age influences our future self images

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salgado, Sinue; Berntsen, Dorthe; Rathbone, Clare

This study examines the impact of age on the quantitative features of future selves. A representative sample of the Danish population from different age-groups generated images of up to eight future selves which were dated and rated for vividness, positivity and emotional intensity. There were...... significant differences across age-groups on all ratings of the future selves. Positive correlations with age were found for vividness and emotional intensity, whereas positivity and distance from present correlated negatively. There was no correlation between age and number of selves generated. The findings...

Sociological assessment of professional self-determination of future doctors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaidarov G.M.

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The lack of a formed professional self-determination among high school students leads to the fact that in the process of medical education and the first years of professional activity, a significant number of students and young specialists leave medicine. Purpose of the study: sociological assessment of professional self-determination of schoolchildren of the upper grades, including those who choose the profession of a doctor, as well as the factors that determine it. Methods. The study was conducted using a sociological survey using a specially developed questionnaire. Results. The level of professional self-determination of schoolchildren of the upper grades is low, one out of every three schoolchildren surveyed has not yet decided on the choice of the future profession, about 8 % of the students have not even chosen an approximate direction of future professional activity. Schoolchildren who have chosen the profession of a doctor, the main motivation is an adherence and a life situation, while prestige and the level of wages are not decisive. As the main base of forming professional self-determination two out of three respondents named the school, meaning the speech made for them by doctors and medical students. For those schoolchildren who have chosen the profession of a doctor on their own, the main motivation factor usually is the visit to the medical university during Doors Open Days. Conclusion. The most important role in the formation of professional self-determination of future doctors belongs to the development and implementation of vocational guidance activities carried out by the forces of the school and medical university.

A study on Sea Level Change for Coast of Korean Peninsular from Global Warming and Its Influences I

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cho, K.W.; Kim, J.H. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

2001-12-01

The Third Assessment Report(2001) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) concluded that the global warming will be accelerated during the 21st century due to the human activities. The projected warming will increase the steric sea level rise which have large adverse effects on the natural and human systems in the coastal zone. This study intends to assess the sea level change and potential impacts of the future sea level rise on the coastal zone of the Korean Peninsula in which much socioeconomic activities have been already occurred. The contents of the present study include reviews on climate change and its impact, assessments of the current and future sea level change in the global scale and seas ne,ar Korea, and impact assessment methodology. The second year study(2002) will be focused on the impact assessment on the coastal zone of the Korea, especially on the inundation problem on human dimension due to the steric sea level rise, storm surge, and tide. Based on the tide gauge data, IPCC(2001) assessed the global average sea level rise during the 20th century is in the range of 10{approx}20cm, which is higher than that of 19th century. The contributing elements to the sea level rise are in the order of ocean thermal expansion, melting of glacier, mass balance change of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and surface and ground water storage and permafrost change. The satellite altimeter data during l990s shows higher trend than the mean trend of tide gauge data during 20th century. The recent high trend of the sea level rise by the altimetry is not clear whether it represents the recent acceleration of the global sea level the differences of the two observation methods, or short observation period of altimetry. In the 21st century, the global mean sea level is projected to increase much due to the acceleration of the warming. Based on the 35 IPCC emission scenarios, the sea level rise in the 21st century will be in the range of 9{approx}88

Futures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

2017-01-01

Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

Future Air Quality in Danish Cities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, S. S.; Berkowicz, R.; Winther, M.

The impact of new EU vehicle emission and fuel quality directives on the future air quality in Danish cities has been modelled for comparison with new limit values in the new EU directive on assessment and management of urban air quality. Nested modelling was applied using a set of air quality...... and emission models to predict concentration levels in the regional background, urban background and at street level. Air pollution levels were predicted to decrease for NO2, CO and benzene (ozone increased slightly) and the results show that the levels will not exceed the new EU limit values in 2010 despite...

Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

Intranet of the future: functional study, comparison of products and practical implementation

OpenAIRE

Bertran Ribalaygua, Ignasi

2010-01-01

Future intranet: functional study, comparison of products and practical implementation 1. Introduction The project has fulfilled three goals: 1) To perform a study of the functionalities which have to be covered in a modern intranet (web 2.0, unified communication, collaboration, etc) 2) To perform a comparison of tools of the market which can be used to implement intranets (commercial and open source products) 3) To test three of these tools (Oracle WebCenter, Liferay Portal and Microsoft Sh...

A Flexible Socioeconomic Scenarios Framework for the Study of Plausible Arctic Futures

Science.gov (United States)

Reissell, A. K.; Peters, G. P.; Riahi, K.; Kroglund, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Nilsson, A. E.; Preston, B. L.; van Ruijven, B. J.

2016-12-01

Future developments of the Arctic region are associated with different drivers of change - climate, environmental, and socio-economic - and their interactions, and are highly uncertain. The uncertainty poses challenges for decision-making, calling for development of new analytical frameworks. Scenarios - coherent narratives describing potential futures, pathways to futures, and drivers of change along the way - can be used to explore the consequences of the key uncertainties, particularly in the long-term. In a participatory scenarios workshop, we used both top-down and bottom-up approaches for the development of a flexible socioeconomic scenarios framework. The top-down approach was linked to the global Integrated Assessment Modeling framework and its Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), developing an Arctic extension of the set of five storylines on the main socioeconomic uncertainties in global climate change research. The bottom-up approach included participatory development of narratives originating from within the Arctic region. For extension of global SSPs to the regional level, we compared the key elements in the global SSPs (Population, Human Development, Economy & Lifestyle, Policies & Institutions, Technology, and Environment & Natural Resources) and key elements in the Arctic. Additional key elements for the Arctic scenarios include, for example, seasonal migration, the large role of traditional knowledge and culture, mixed economy, nested governance structure, human and environmental security, quality of infrastructure. The bottom-up derived results suggested that the scenarios developed independent of the SSPs could be mapped back to the SSPs to demonstrate consistency with respect to representing similar boundary conditions. The two approaches are complimentary, as the top-down approach can be used to set the global socio-economic and climate boundary conditions, and the bottom-up approach providing the regional context. One key uncertainty and

The Delaware Bay Estuary as a Classroom: A Research Experience for Future Elementary Grade-Level Teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Madsen, J.; Fifield, S.; Allen, D.; Shipman, H.; Ford, D.; Dagher, Z.; Brickhouse, N.

2004-05-01

With supplemental funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF), students from the University of Delaware's Science Semester course took part in a two-day research cruise in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The Science Semester, an NSF-funded project, is an integrated 15-credit sequence that encompasses the entire course work for the spring semester for approximately 60 sophomore-level elementary education majors. The semester includes the earth, life, and physical science content courses and the education science methods course integrated into one curriculum. In this curriculum, problem-based learning and other inquiry-based approaches are applied to foster integrated understandings of science and pedagogy that future elementary teachers need to effectively use inquiry-based approaches in their classrooms. The research cruise was conducted as part of one of the four major investigations during the course. The investigation focused on Delaware's state marine animal, Limulus polyphemus. It is one of the four remaining species of horseshoe crabs; the largest spawning population of Limulus is found in Delaware Bay. Within the problem- and inquiry-based learning approaches of the Science Semester course, the students became aware that very little data exists on the benthic habitat of Limulus polyphemus. In order to learn more about this habitat, a cohort of seven students from the course was recruited as part of the scientific party to take part in the research cruise to collect data on the floor of Delaware Bay. The data included: multibeam bathymetry/backscatter data, grab samples of bay bottom sediments, and CTD profiles. Prior to the cruise, all students in the course took part in laboratory exercises to learn about topographic maps and navigation charts using the Delaware Bay area as the region of study. While "at-sea", the cruise participants sent the ship's latitude and longitude positions as a function of time. The positions were used by the on-land students to

The Relationships among Imagination, Future Imagination Tendency, and Future Time Perspective of Junior High School Students

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Min-Ying

2015-01-01

The main purpose of the study were to investigate the relationships among imagination, future imagination tendency, and future time perspective of junior high school students, then to explore the future time perspective which is predicted by background variables, imaginative qualities, and future imagination tendency. The subjects were 331 from…

Valuing future citizens' values regarding risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, Patricia [Creighton Univ., Omaha (United States). College of Arts and Sciences/Philosophy

2006-09-15

Valuing present citizen's values regarding the risks they face is an important aspect of risk assessment and risk acceptability. Conferences like VALDOR are held for this reason. Governments like Sweden have national referendums on various risk-prone enterprises. The results of these referendums can determine the future of these programs. In the United States, when guidelines are set for determining acceptable levels of risk, the relevant federal agencies are often required to provide a comment period regarding proposed guidelines in order to ascertain the judgments, including the weights place on certain values, of individual members of society as well as stakeholder groups. After the comment period ends, the agency decides on the acceptable level of risk, taking into account the comments from present citizens. Do we also have a duty to value the not-yet-existing values of future citizens, especially if the risks created by the activities of present citizens extend into the future to citizens not yet living? If so, are there any circumstances which entitle us to de-value those not-yet-existing values. In this paper, I ground my discussion of the question of valuing future citizens' values in one of the areas of focus of the VALDOR conference: nuclear waste management and specifically the question facing the United States' program regarding an acceptable dose standard associated with the release of radioactivity into the biosphere from an underground repository. The underlying conference theme to which this discussion may be attached is community environmental justice as it applies to future citizens. I focus on the role that uncertainty plays is providing justice between present and future citizens.

Preliminary assessment of geologic materials to minimize biological intrusion of low-level waste trench covers and plans for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hakonson, T.E.; White, G.C.; Gladney, E.S.; Muller, M.

1981-01-01

The long-term integrity of low-level waste shallow land burial sites is dependent on the interaction of physical, chemical, and biological factors that modify the waste containment system. Past research on low-level waste shallow land burial methods has emphasized physical (i.e., water infiltration, soil erosion) and chemical (radionuclide leaching) processes that can cause radionuclide transport from a waste site. Preliminary results demonstrate that a sandy backfill material offers little resistance to root and animal intrusion through the cover profile. However, bentonite clay, cobble, and cobble-gravel combinations do reduce plant root and animal intrusion through cover profiles compared with sandy backfill soil. However, bentonite clay barrier systems appear to be degraded by plant roots through time. Desiccation of the clay barrier by invading plant roots may limit the usefulness of bentonite clay as a moisture and/or biological carrier unless due consideration is given to this interaction. Future experiments are described that further examine the effect of plant roots on clay barrier systems and that determine the effectiveness of proposed biological barriers on larger scales and under various stress conditions

Governance of the future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Galløe, Lotte Rannveig

a different future for both parents and children. Thus, the approach to PMTO as a technology of the future indicates its expected prevalence in the future and its attempt to reach in to the future becoming of the child. The technology’s involvement of the relatives and its orientation towards shaping......In my presentation I will explore the concept, ‘technology of the future’, in public governance. Public governance within social services aims at changing the existing conditions for the marginalized citizens including children with special needs. I pose the question: what happens if public...... governance seek to chance the possible future conditions and targets the marginalized child’s relatives? Parent Management Training (PMTO) is studied as a technology of the future that expands and transforms governance. PMTO targets parents with aggressive and asocial children and aims to “create the parent...

F. POLAK’S CONCEPT "THE IMAGE OF THE FUTURE"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Инга Владиславовна Желтикова

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of the philosophic concept of the image of the future. The author defines this concept as some general idea of social expectations, existing at definite culture in definite time; he views its significance in the modern Russian science and social and political journalism. The author his particular attention focuses on Polak’s ideas about the image of the future. The article, introduces the Russian reader to with Polak’s conceptions which are set out in his work ‘The image of the future’, the book having been not yet translated into Russian. A study of the role of the image of the future in society is not only of purely academic interests, but it is also of great practical significance since modern culture faces a hard task of forging a positive and constructive vision of Tomorrow so as to realize this vision. Fred Polak was the first to undertake the difficult conceptual endeavour of clarify the role of the image of the future in the social process at the societal level.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-3-11

Evaluating future detriment from radioactive discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleishman, A.B.; Clark, M.J.

1982-01-01

A quantitative framework for expressing judgements on the relative valuation of both future protection costs and radiation detriment from radioactive discharges is discussed. The framework can be applied to a series of notional effluent control options, illustrating the sensitivity of optimum protection levels to variations in discount rates. Using data on the radiological significance and management of radioactive discharges arising from the nuclear fuel cycle, it was shown that this quantitative optimization method of evaluating future detriment has important implications for the management of radioactive effluents, particularly those containing long-lived nuclides. (U.K.)

Evidence for Future Cognition in Animals

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, William A.

2012-01-01

Evidence concerning the possibility of mental time travel into the future by animals was reviewed. Both experimental laboratory studies and field observations were considered. Paradigms for the study of future anticipation and planning included inhibition of consumption of current food contingent on future receipt of either a larger quantity or…

The level of leisure time physical activity is associated with work ability-a cross sectional and prospective study of health care workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Arvidson, Elin; Börjesson, Mats; Ahlborg, Gunnar; Lindegård, Agneta; Jonsdottir, Ingibjörg H

2013-09-17

With increasing age, physical capacity decreases, while the need and time for recovery increases. At the same time, the demands of work usually do not change with age. In the near future, an aging and physically changing workforce risks reduced work ability. Therefore, the impact of different factors, such as physical activity, on work ability is of interest. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the association between physical activity and work ability using both cross sectional and prospective analyses. This study was based on an extensive questionnaire survey. The number of participants included in the analysis at baseline in 2004 was 2.783, of whom 2.597 were also included in the follow-up in 2006. The primary outcome measure was the Work Ability Index (WAI), and the level of physical activity was measured using a single-item question. In the cross-sectional analysis we calculated the level of physical activity and the prevalence of poor or moderate work ability as reported by the participants. In the prospective analysis we calculated different levels of physical activity and the prevalence of positive changes in WAI-category from baseline to follow-up. In both the cross sectional and the prospective analyses the prevalence ratio was calculated using Generalized Linear Models. The cross-sectional analysis showed that with an increased level of physical activity, the reporting of poor or moderate work ability decreased. In the prospective analysis, participants reporting a higher level of physical activity were more likely to have made an improvement in WAI from 2004 to 2006. The level of physical activity seems to be related to work ability. Assessment of physical activity may also be useful as a predictive tool, potentially making it possible to prevent poor work ability and improve future work ability. For employers, the main implications of this study are the importance of promoting and facilitating the employees' engagement in physical activity, and

Studies to enhance the hyperpolarization level in PHIP-SAH-produced C13-pyruvate

Science.gov (United States)

Cavallari, Eleonora; Carrera, Carla; Aime, Silvio; Reineri, Francesca

2018-04-01

The use of [1-13C]pyruvate, hyperpolarized by dissolution-Dynamic Nuclear Polarization (d-DNP), in in vivo metabolic studies has developed quickly, thanks to the imaging probe's diagnostic relevance. Nevertheless, the cost of a d-DNP polarizer is quite high and the speed of hyperpolarization process is relatively slow, meaning that its use is limited to few research laboratories. ParaHydrogen Induced Polarization Side Arm Hydrogenation (PHIP-SAH) (Reineri et al., 2015) is a cost effective and easy-to-handle method that produces 13C-MR hyperpolarization in [1-13C]pyruvate and other metabolites. This work aims to identify the main determinants of the hyperpolarization levels observed in C13-pyruvate using this method. By dissecting the various steps of the PHIP-SAH procedure, it has been possible to assess the role of several experimental parameters whose optimization must be pursued if this method is to be made suitable for future translational steps. The search for possible solutions has led to improvements in the polarization of sodium [1-13C]pyruvate from 2% to 5%. Moreover, these results suggest that observed polarization levels could be increased considerably by an automatized procedure which would reduce the time required for the work-up passages that are currently carried out manually. The results reported herein mean that the attainment of polarization levels suitable for the metabolic imaging applications of these hyperpolarized substrates show significant promise.

Future human health research directions for the Canadian Northern Contaminants Program

Science.gov (United States)

Donaldson, Shawn G.; Curren, Meredith S.; Adlard, Bryan; Provost, Jonathan; Leech, Tara; Tikhonov, Constantine; Feeley, Mark; Tomlinson, Scott; Shearer, Russel

2013-01-01

Studies conducted in the mid-1980s and early 1990s demonstrated that persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and metals were reaching the Arctic ecosystem at unexpectedly high levels, many of which had no Arctic or Canadian sources. Epidemiological and toxicological studies in Canada and in other countries have found that these contaminants may pose a risk to human health. The objective of this paper is to provide the foundation for the discussion on future northern human health research under the Northern Contaminants Program (NCP) in Canada. This short discussion of human health priorities will help guide a path forward for future northern human health research in Canada to address on-going and new health concerns related to contaminants exposure in the Canadian Arctic. PMID:24282784

Review of the status of learning in research on sport education: future research and practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Araújo, Rui; Mesquita, Isabel; Hastie, Peter A

2014-12-01

Research concerning Sport Education's educational impact has shown unequivocal results according to students' personal and social development. Nevertheless, research is still sparse with respect to the model's impact on student learning outcomes. The goal of the present review is to therefore scrutinize what is currently known regarding students' learning during their participation in Sport Education. This research spans a variety of studies, cross various countries, school grades, the sports studied, as well as the methods applied and dimensions of student learning analyzed. While research on the impact of Sport Education on students' learning, as well as teachers' and students' perceptions about student learning has shown students' improvements during the participation in Sport Education seasons, there is still considerable variance in these results. For example, some studies report superior learning opportunities to boys and higher skill-level students while other studies have identified superior learning opportunities for girls and lower skill-level students. These inconsistent results can be explained by factors not considered in the Sport Education research, such as the effect of time on students' learning and the control of the teaching-learning process within Sport Education units. In this review directions for future research and practice are also described. Future research should define, implement, and evaluate protocols for student-coaches' preparation in order to understand the influence of this issue on students' learning as well as consider the implementation of hybrid approaches. Moreover, future studies should consider the interaction of gender and skill level and a retention test in the analysis of students' learning improvements in order to obtain a more realist and complete portrait of the impact of Sport Education. Finally, in order to reach an entirely understanding of the teaching-learning process, it is necessary to use research designs that

Education for an Interdependent Future.

Science.gov (United States)

Brodbelt, Samuel

1979-01-01

Calls for social studies teachers to emphasize future studies and the implications of growing global interdependence. Students should learn about alternative futures, the possible decline of nationalism, overpopulation and food resources, the ecological system and natural resources, and ways of achieving interdependence. (AV)

The Development of the Future European Knowledge Workers. An Academic Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramona Leon

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The research purpose was to determine whether the economics and business administration higher education institutions from the European Union members states are facilitating the development of the future knowledge workers or not. In order to achieve this goal, we employed an exploratory research and we combined a qualitative approach with a quantitative one. We focused on the common courses that are taught in the best European Union higher education institutions, according to the QS World University Rankings. We applied a content analysis to 267 syllabuses that belonged to 21 economics and business administration faculties. Then we employed a logistic regression in order to determine if the teaching methods, used during the bachelor studies, can predict the development of the future knowledge workers. The results have showed that the economics and business administration higher education institutions from the European Union member states tend to respond positively to companies’ necessity by developing almost 50% of the “ideal” knowledge worker profile. These findings have implications on both educational and managerial level. At the educational level, it reflects the vulnerable area of the educational process namely, skills development. It seems to be forgotten that education is more than just sharing explicit knowledge; it is about developing the current and the future citizens, building characters and stimulating the need for lifelong learning. At the managerial level, it brings forefront the deficiencies of the future human resources and it indicates the need for adapting the organizational culture and practices. What had been overlooked by the educational system may be complemented by an open organizational culture, an inspirational leadership and an effective coaching process.

A Study of the Groundwater Level Spatial Variability in the Messara Valley of Crete

Science.gov (United States)

Varouchakis, E. A.; Hristopulos, D. T.; Karatzas, G. P.

2009-04-01

The island of Crete (Greece) has a dry sub-humid climate and marginal groundwater resources, which are extensively used for agricultural activities and human consumption. The Messara valley is located in the south of the Heraklion prefecture, it covers an area of 398 km2, and it is the largest and most productive valley of the island. Over-exploitation during the past thirty (30) years has led to a dramatic decrease of thirty five (35) meters in the groundwater level. Possible future climatic changes in the Mediterranean region, potential desertification, population increase, and extensive agricultural activity generate concern over the sustainability of the water resources of the area. The accurate estimation of the water table depth is important for an integrated groundwater resource management plan. This study focuses on the Mires basin of the Messara valley for reasons of hydro-geological data availability and geological homogeneity. The research goal is to model and map the spatial variability of the basin's groundwater level accurately. The data used in this study consist of seventy (70) piezometric head measurements for the hydrological year 2001-2002. These are unevenly distributed and mostly concentrated along a temporary river that crosses the basin. The range of piezometric heads varies from an extreme low value of 9.4 meters above sea level (masl) to 62 masl, for the wet period of the year (October to April). An initial goal of the study is to develop spatial models for the accurate generation of static maps of groundwater level. At a second stage, these maps should extend the models to dynamic (space-time) situations for the prediction of future water levels. Preliminary data analysis shows that the piezometric head variations are not normally distributed. Several methods including Box-Cox transformation and a modified version of it, transgaussian Kriging, and Gaussian anamorphosis have been used to obtain a spatial model for the piezometric head. A

Epidemiological Trends of Spine Trauma: An Australian Level 1 Trauma Centre Study

Science.gov (United States)

Tee, J. W.; Chan, C. H. P.; Fitzgerald, M. C. B.; Liew, S. M.; Rosenfeld, J. V.

2013-01-01

Knowledge of current epidemiology and spine trauma trends assists in public resource allocation, fine-tuning of primary prevention methods, and benchmarking purposes. Data on all patients with traumatic spine injuries admitted to the Alfred Hospital, Melbourne between May 1, 2009, and January 1, 2011, were collected from the Alfred Trauma Registry, Alfred Health medical database, and Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry. Epidemiological trends were analyzed as a general cohort, with comparison cohorts of nonsurvivors versus survivors and elderly versus nonelderly. Linear regression analysis was utilized to demonstrate trends with statistical significance. There were 965 patients with traumatic spine injuries with 2,333 spine trauma levels. The general cohort showed a trimodal age distribution, male-to-female ratio of 2:2, motor vehicle accidents as the primary spine trauma mechanism, 47.7% patients with severe polytrauma as graded using the Injury Severity Score (ISS), 17.3% with traumatic brain injury (TBI), the majority of patients with one spine injury level, 7% neurological deficit rate, 12.8% spine trauma operative rate, and 5.2% mortality rate. Variables with statistical significance trending toward mortality were the elderly, motor vehicle occupants, severe ISS, TBI, C1–2 dissociations, and American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) A, B, and C neurological grades. Variables with statistical significance trending toward the elderly were females; low falls; one spine injury level; type 2 odontoid fractures; subaxial cervical spine distraction injuries; ASIA A, B, and C neurological grades; and patients without neurological deficits. Of the general cohort, 50.3% of spine trauma survivors were discharged home, and 48.1% were discharged to rehabilitation facilities. This study provides baseline spine trauma epidemiological data. The trimodal age distribution of patients with traumatic spine injuries calls for further studies and intervention targeted

Developing future nurse educators through peer mentoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosenau PA

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Patricia A Rosenau, Rita F Lisella, Tracey L Clancy, Lorelli S NowellFaculty of Nursing, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, CanadaBackground: The nursing workforce and nursing education demographic trends reinforce the urgency to cultivate future nursing leaders, educators, and mentors. The changing realities of health care environments, involving crowded student placements, overtaxed clinical mentors and preceptors, and inexperienced staff, hamper student learning and professional development. Peer mentoring has been used successfully in nursing education to enhance student engagement and the quality of the student learning experience. Although various terms like peer mentor have been used to describe the role of senior students facilitating junior student learning, the literature is silent about how peer mentoring fosters the development of future nursing education leaders.Objectives: The aim of this study was to understand how peer mentorship fosters the development of nursing education leadership in senior undergraduate nursing students enrolled in an elective undergraduate peer-mentoring credit course, Introductory Concepts in Nursing Education and Leadership Through Peer-Led Learning.Design and method: This phenomenological study explored the development of nursing education leadership in senior undergraduate students through the analysis of critical reflections of individual senior students and online discussions between triads of senior students teaching/learning across diverse junior-level theory and practice courses.Participants: Seventeen senior undergraduate nursing students enrolled in the elective course participated in the study.Results: From the critical reflections and online discussions, four themes emerged: "developing teaching philosophies and pedagogies", "learning teaching strategies", "supportive peer relationship", and "benefits of the peer mentorship program".Conclusion: The creation and promotion of peer leadership

Sediment baseline study of levels and sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and heavy metals in Lake Nicaragua

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheibye, Katrine; Weisser, Johan Juhl; Borggaard, Ole K.

2014-01-01

Selected metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were analyzed in sediment samples from 24 sites in Lake Nicaragua sampled May 2010 to provide a baseline of pollution levels. Cu exceeded the Consensus-Based Sediment Quality Guideline (CBSQG) Threshold Effect Concentrations (TECs) at 21...... showed that the CBSQG TECs were exceeded by naphthalene at five sites. The sum concentrations of the 16 US EPA priority PAHs (∑PAH16) ranged from 0.01mgkg(-1)dw to 0.64mgkg(-1)dw. The highest ∑PAH16 concentration was found upstream in River Mayales and the PAH composition revealed a heavy PAH fraction (e....... This study concluded that areas of Lake Nicaragua represent an important pollution baseline for future studies in this lake and other tropical lakes....

Prevalent pain and pain level among torture survivors: a follow-up study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dorthe Reff, Olsen; Montgomery, Edith; Carlsson, J

2006-01-01

AIM: To estimate change over nine months and over two years, as concerns the prevalence and level of pain in the head, back and feet, among previously tortured refugees settled in Denmark, and to compare associations between torture methods and the prevalence of pain at baseline and at follow...... pattern was found when examining the level of pain as indicated by Visual Analogue Scales. Pain in the feet at follow-up was associated with previous exposure to beating against the feet. Pain in the back at baseline and pain in the head at follow-up were associated with suffocation. CONCLUSION: More than...... ten years after the torture took place, survivors of torture continue to suffer from pain associated with the type of torture they had been subjected to. This presents a considerable challenge to future evidence-based development of effective treatment programmes....

Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2017-12-01

Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2012-01-01

Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

Predicting location-specific extreme coastal floods in the future climate by introducing a probabilistic method to calculate maximum elevation of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of water level variations and wind waves

Science.gov (United States)

Leijala, Ulpu; Björkqvist, Jan-Victor; Johansson, Milla M.; Pellikka, Havu

2017-04-01

Future coastal management continuously strives for more location-exact and precise methods to investigate possible extreme sea level events and to face flooding hazards in the most appropriate way. Evaluating future flooding risks by understanding the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level variations and wind waves is one of the means to make more comprehensive flooding hazard analysis, and may at first seem like a straightforward task to solve. Nevertheless, challenges and limitations such as availability of time series of the sea level and wave height components, the quality of data, significant locational variability of coastal wave height, as well as assumptions to be made depending on the study location, make the task more complicated. In this study, we present a statistical method for combining location-specific probability distributions of water level variations (including local sea level observations and global mean sea level rise) and wave run-up (based on wave buoy measurements). The goal of our method is to obtain a more accurate way to account for the waves when making flooding hazard analysis on the coast compared to the approach of adding a separate fixed wave action height on top of sea level -based flood risk estimates. As a result of our new method, we gain maximum elevation heights with different return periods of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of both phenomena, "the green water". We also introduce a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the properties and functioning of our method. The sensitivity test is based on using theoretical wave distributions representing different alternatives of wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with the sea level distribution, we get information on how the different wave height conditions and shape of the wave height distribution influence the joint results. Our method presented here can be used as an advanced tool to minimize over- and