Sample records for level rises drowned
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Nnafie, A.; de Swart, H. E.; Calvete, D.; Garnier, R.
2014-06-01
Shoreface-connected sand ridges occur on many storm-dominated inner shelves. These rhythmic features have an along-shelf spacing of 2-10 km, a height of 1-12 m, they evolve on timescales of centuries and they migrate several meters per year. An idealized model is used to study the impact of sea level rise on the characteristics of the sand ridges during their initial and long-term evolution. Different scenarios (rates of sea level rise, geometry of inner shelf) are examined. Results show that with increasing sea level the height of sand ridges increases and their migration decreases until they eventually drown. This latter occurs when the near-bed wave orbital velocity drops below the critical velocity for erosion of sediment. In contrast, in the absence of sea level rise, the model simulates shoreface-connected sand ridges with constant heights and migration rates. Model results furthermore indicate that sand ridges do not form if the rate of sea level rise is too high, or if the initial depth of the inner shelf is too small. A larger transverse bottom slope enhances growth and height of sand ridges and they drown quicker. When shoreface retreat due to sea level rise is considered, new ridges form in the landward part of the inner shelf, while ridges on the antecedent part of the shelf become less active and ultimately drown. Only if sea level rise is accounted for, merging of ridges is reduced such that multiple ridges occur in the end state, thereby yielding a better agreement with observations. The physical mechanisms responsible for these findings are also explained.
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Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment supply and global sea-level rise
Blum, Michael D.; Roberts, Harry H.
2009-07-01
Over the past few centuries, 25% of the deltaic wetlands associated with the Mississippi Delta have been lost to the ocean. Plans to protect and restore the coast call for diversions of the Mississippi River, and its associated sediment, to sustain and build new land. However, the sediment load of the Mississippi River has been reduced by 50% through dam construction in the Mississippi Basin, which could affect the effectiveness of diversion plans. Here we calculate the amount of sediment stored on the delta plain for the past 12,000 years, and find that mean storage rates necessary to construct the flood plain and delta over this period exceed modern Mississippi River sediment loads. We estimate that, in the absence of sediment input, an additional 10,000-13,500km2 will be submerged by the year 2100 owing to subsidence and sea-level rise. Sustaining existing delta surface area would require 18-24billiontons of sediment, which is significantly more than can be drawn from the Mississippi River in its current state. We conclude that significant drowning is inevitable, even if sediment loads are restored, because sea level is now rising at least three times faster than during delta-plain construction.
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Can human activities alter the drowning fate of barrier islands?
Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Ashton, A. D.; Jin, D.; Hoagland, P.; Kite-Powell, H.
2012-12-01
Low-lying coastal barriers face an uncertain future over the coming century and beyond as sea levels rise, with many projections suggesting end-of-century rates of sea-level rise as high or higher than 1 cm/yr. Geologically, such rates of sea-level rise have been experienced several thousand years ago and we can use our understanding of geological processes and sedimentary evidence to help unravel the dynamics of natural barriers experiencing sea-level rise. Along many modern coastal barriers, however, anthropic change, such as beach nourishment, dune construction, and emplacement of hard structures, plays a dominant role in coastline dynamics. A fundamental question to be addressed is whether human activities intended to preserve infrastructure and beach recreation may make wholesale collapse, or 'drowning,' of barrier systems more likely. Here we present a numerical modeling tool that couples natural processes and the human responses to these changes (and the subsequent of human responses on natural processes). Recent theoretical model development suggests that barriers are intrinsically morphodynamic features, responding to sea-level rise in complex ways through the interactions of marine processes and barrier overwash. Undeveloped coastal barriers would therefore respond to an accelerated sea-level rise in complex, less predictable manners than suggested by existing long-term models. We have developed a model that examines non-equilibrium cross-shore evolution of barrier systems at decadal to centennial temporal scales, focusing on the interactions between processes of shoreface evolution and overwash deposition. Model responses demonstrate two means of barrier collapse during sea-level rise: 'height drowning', which occurs when overwash fluxes are insufficient to maintain the landward migration rate required to keep in pace with sea-level rise, and 'width drowning', which occurs when the shoreface response is insufficient to maintain the barrier geometry
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Drowning unconformities: Palaeoenvironmental significance and involvement of global processes
Godet, Alexis
2013-07-01
Drowning unconformities are stratigraphic key surfaces in the history of carbonate platforms. They mostly consist in the deposition of deep marine facies on top of shallow marine limestones. Although large-scale depositional geometries mimic lowstand systems track architecture, these sedimentary turnovers are developed in relation with major sea level rise, inducing an increase in the rate of creation of accommodation space that outpaces the capacity of carbonate to keep up. This so-called paradox of carbonate platform drowning implies that parameters other than purely eustatic fluctuations are involved in the demise of shallow marine ecosystems. Worldwide and at different times during Earth history, in-depth studies of drowning unconformities revealed that changes in nutrient input, clastic delivery, temperature, or a combination of them may be responsible for a decrease in light penetration in the water column and the progressive suffocation and poisoning of photosynthetic carbonate producers. The examination of such case examples from various stratigraphic intervals and palaeogeographical settings thus helps in identifying and hierarchizing potential triggering mechanisms for drowning unconformities. This is complemented by new data from Early Cretaceous successions from the Helvetic Alps. During this time period, the Helvetic carbonate platform developed along the northern Tethyan margin using both photozoan and heterozoan communities. Phases of healthy production were interrupted by several drowning episodes. The latter are marked in the sedimentary record by condensation and associated phosphogenesis and glauconitisation. From the earliest Valanginian to the early to late Barremian, three drowning unconformities reflect the intermittent installation of a more humid climate and subsequent enhanced trophic conditions, which first induced a switch from photozoan to heterozoan communities and then to long-lasting drowning phases. The latter encompass several sea
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Drowned reefs and antecedent karst topography, Au'au channel, S.E. Hawaiian Islands
Grigg, R.W.; Grossman, E.E.; Earle, S.A.; Gittings, S.R.; Lott, D.; McDonough, J.
2002-01-01
During the last glacial maximum (LGM), about 21,000 years ago, the Hawaiian Islands of Maui, Lanai, and Molokai were interconnected by limestone bridges, creating a super-island known as Maui-Nui. Approximately 120 m of sea-level rise during the Holocene Transgression flooded, and then drowned, these bridges separating the islands by inter-island channels. A new multibeam high-resolution bathymetric survey of the channels between the islands, coupled with observations and video-transects utilizing DeepWorker-2000 submersibles, has revealed the existence of numerous drowned reef features including concentric solution basins, solution ridges (rims), sand and sediment plains, and conical-shaped reef pinnacles. The concentric basins contain flat lagoon-like bottoms that are rimmed by steep-sided limestone walls. Undercut notches rim the basins at several depths, marking either sea-level still stands or paleo-lake levels. All of the solution basins shallower than 120 m were subaerial at the LGM, and at one stage or another may have been shallow shoreline lakes. Today, about 70 drowned reef pinnacles are scattered across the Maui-Lanai underwater bridge and all are situated in wave-sheltered positions. Most drowned during the interval between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago when sea-level rise averaged 15 mm/year. Virtually all of the surficial topography in the Au'au Channel today is a product of karst processes accentuated by marginal reef growth during the Holocene. Both the submerged basins and the drowned reefs represent an archive of sea-level and climate history in Hawaii during the late Quaternary.
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Experimental investigation of channel avulsion frequency on river deltas under rising sea levels
Silvestre, J.; Chadwick, A. J.; Steele, S.; Lamb, M. P.
2017-12-01
River deltas are low-relief landscapes that are socioeconomically important; they are home to over half a billion people worldwide. Many deltas are built by cycles of lobe growth punctuated by abrupt channel shifts, or avulsions, which often reoccur at a similar location and with a regular frequency. Previous experimental work has investigated the effect of hydrodynamic backwater in controlling channel avulsion location and timing on deltas under constant sea level conditions, but it is unclear how sea-level rise impacts avulsion dynamics. We present results from a flume experiment designed to isolate the role of relative sea-level rise on the evolution of a backwater-influenced delta. The experiment was conducted in the river-ocean facility at Caltech, where a 7m long, 14cm wide alluvial river drains into a 6m by 3m "ocean" basin. The experimental delta grew under subcritical flow, a persistent backwater zone, and a range of sea level rise rates. Without sea level rise, lobe progradation produced in-channel aggradation and periodic avulsions every 3.6 ± 0.9 hours, which corresponded to when channels aggraded to approximately one-half of their flow depth. With a modest rate of sea-level rise (0.25 mm/hr), we observed enhanced aggradation in the backwater zone, causing channels to aggrade more quickly and avulse more frequently (every 2.1 ± 0.6 hours). In future work, we expect further increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise to cause avulsion frequency to decrease as the delta drowns and the backwater zone retreats upstream. Experimental results can serve as tests of numerical models that are needed for hazard mitigation and coastal sustainability efforts on drowning deltas.
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Pediatric near-drowning and drowning.
Jan, Mohammed M
2013-02-01
Childhood water submersion remains a major public health problem. The aim of this article is to present an updated overview of the topic with data from our region and special attention to prevention strategies. Children less than 5 years and males are particularly at risk. Infants are at higher risk of drowning in bathtubs, toilets, or washing machines, while most drowning in older children occurs in swimming pools. Poor supervision by inexperienced caregivers is a common factor and contributes to most deaths. Adolescents drown more often during outdoor water activity. Acute management should start as soon as possible in order to prevent unfavorable neurological outcome. Cardio-pulmonary resuscitation should be started at the scene. Most children who were rescued quickly will recover neurologically intact. Restricting access to water and close adult supervision are paramount in preventing near-drowning and drowning. High-risk groups, such as new or young parents, and lower socioeconomic families, should be targeted by such prevention programs.
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Coralgal reef morphology records punctuated sea-level rise during the last deglaciation.
Khanna, Pankaj; Droxler, André W; Nittrouer, Jeffrey A; Tunnell, John W; Shirley, Thomas C
2017-10-19
Coralgal reefs preserve the signatures of sea-level fluctuations over Earth's history, in particular since the Last Glacial Maximum 20,000 years ago, and are used in this study to indicate that punctuated sea-level rise events are more common than previously observed during the last deglaciation. Recognizing the nature of past sea-level rises (i.e., gradual or stepwise) during deglaciation is critical for informing models that predict future vertical behavior of global oceans. Here we present high-resolution bathymetric and seismic sonar data sets of 10 morphologically similar drowned reefs that grew during the last deglaciation and spread 120 km apart along the south Texas shelf edge. Herein, six commonly observed terrace levels are interpreted to be generated by several punctuated sea-level rise events forcing the reefs to shrink and backstep through time. These systematic and common terraces are interpreted to record punctuated sea-level rise events over timescales of decades to centuries during the last deglaciation, previously recognized only during the late Holocene.
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Drowning of the - 150 m reef off Hawaii: A casualty of global meltwater pulse 1A?
Webster, J.M.; Clague, D.A.; Riker-Coleman, K.; Gallup, C.; Braga, J.C.; Potts, D.; Moore, J.G.; Winterer, E.L.; Paull, C.K.
2004-01-01
We present evidence that the drowning of the - 150 m coral reef around Hawaii was caused by rapid sea-level rise associated with meltwater pulse 1A (MWP-1A) during the last deglaciation. New U/Th and 14C accelerator mass spectrometry dates, combined with reinterpretation of existing radiometric dates, constrain the age of the coral reef to 15.2-14.7 ka (U/Th age), indicating that reef growth persisted for 4.3 k.y. following the end of the Last Glacial Maximum at 19 ka. The drowning age of the reef is roughly synchronous with the onset of MWP-1A between 14.7 and 14.2 ka. Dates from coralline algal material range from 14 to 10 cal ka (calibrated radiocarbon age), 1-4 k.y. younger than the coral ages. A paleoenvironmental reconstruction incorporating all available radiometric dates, high-resolution bathymetry, dive observations, and coralgal paleobathymetry data indicates a dramatic rise in sea level around Hawaii ca. 14.7 ka. Paleowater depths over the reef crest increased rapidly above a critical depth (30-40 m), drowning the shallow reef-building Porites corals and causing a shift to deepwater coralline algal growth, preserved as a crust on the drowned reef crest. ?? 2004 Geological Society of America.
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Prevention and Treatment of Drowning.
Mott, Timothy F; Latimer, Kelly M
2016-04-01
Nearly 4,000 drowning deaths occur annually in the United States, with drowning representing the most common injury-related cause of death in children one to four years of age. Drowning is a process that runs the spectrum from brief entry of liquid into the airways with subsequent clearance and only minor temporary injury, to the prolonged presence of fluid in the lungs leading to lung dysfunction, hypoxia, neurologic and cardiac abnormalities, and death. The World Health Organization has defined drowning as "the process of experiencing respiratory impairment from submersion/immersion in liquid." Terms such as near, wet, dry, passive, active, secondary, and silent drowning should no longer be used because they are confusing and hinder proper categorization and management. The American Heart Association's Revised Utstein Drowning Form and treatment guidelines are important in guiding care, disposition, and prognosis. Prompt resuscitation at the scene after a shorter duration of submersion is associated with better outcomes. Because cardiac arrhythmias due to drowning are almost exclusively caused by hypoxia, the resuscitation order prioritizes airway and breathing before compressions. Prevention remains the best treatment. Education, swimming and water safety lessons, and proper pool fencing are the interventions with the highest level of current evidence, especially in children two to four years of age. Alcohol use during water activities dramatically increases the risk of drowning; therefore, abstinence is recommended for all participants and supervisors.
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Childhood drowning in Malaysia.
Hss, Amar-Singh; Tan, Pui San; Hashim, Lina
2014-01-01
This study aimed to collate data on childhood drowning in Malaysia and review existing drowning prevention measures. This study used secondary data from governmental and non-governmental agencies. All reported fatal drownings from 2000 to 2007 and all reported non-fatal drownings from 2000 to 2008 were included. Data were analysed to provide understanding of the epidemiology of drowning incidents, risk factors and available preventive efforts. On average 286 (range 248-344) children died yearly due to drowning with a death rate of 3.05 per 100,000 annually. An additional average of 207 children drowned but survived annually (1.99 per 100,000). The estimated burden of drowning in children (death and non-death) is 5 per 100,000. There was no reduction in annual drowning fatalities over time. Most drowning took place in east coast regions during the annual monsoon season. It was 3.52 (2.80-4.41) times more common in boys and most prevalent among 10-14 years. Most prevalent sites of all-age drowning were seas and rivers. Limited water safety regulations are currently available in the country. This is the first comprehensive national study in Malaysia on paediatric drowning and highlights the magnitude of the problem. It calls for concerted effort to devise effective national drowning prevention measures.
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Near-drowning and clinical laboratory changes.
Oehmichen, Manfred; Hennig, Renate; Meissner, Christoph
2008-01-01
Opposite to clinical laboratory findings in experimental drowning of animals (erythrocytic lysis, hyperkalemia, and final cardial fibrillation) are the observations in drowned humans (increase of pCO2, hypoxic encephalopathy), which leads to a different pathophysiological interpretation of the drowning process. This process, however, is recently discussed again, therefore an additional study seemed to be recommended. In a retrospective study, 31 cases of near-drowning (23 cases: fresh water; 8 cases: brackish water) clinical laboratory data were analysed. While 21 of the cases were fatal with a delay of up to 180 days, 10 individuals survived the accident, four cases with severe neurological deficits. Data of pH, potassium, sodium, chloride, hemoglobin and total protein were collected during the very early post-drowning period. Nearly all cases (96%) revealed a reduction of pH due to hypoxic acidosis, and only two cases (6.5%) exhibited a slight hyperkalemia. The hemoglobin level was normal in most of the cases (83%) and slightly reduced in the others (17%) while the protein level was slightly reduced in most of the fatalities (80%). As a result of our investigation we have to state the lack of hyperkalemia as well as of an increase of the hemoglobin level indicate that there is no distinct intravascular red cell lysis due to influx of water into the vascular compartment. Therefore the death by drowning in humans in most cases is the result of a hypoxic cerebral process. A comparison with animal experiments obviously is not helpful because the drowning process in humans leads to an aspiration of only 2-4 ml water/kg, while in animal experiments more than 10 ml water/kg will be artificially aspirated leading to red cell lysis as well as to electrolyte disturbances and cardial fibrillation.
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Natural and Human-Induced Variability in Barrier-Island Response to Sea Level Rise
Miselis, Jennifer L.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge
2017-12-01
Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nuno Domingos Garrido
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Drowning kills at least 372,000 people worldwide every year and is the 3rd leading cause of unintentional death, accounting for 7% of all deaths stemming from accidents (WHO, 2014. Conceptually, “drowning” is a complex and multi-faceted phenomenon, characterized as a chain of events (Bierens, 2006. Drowning is defined as the process of experiencing respiratory impairment from immersion or submersion in liquid. Research on drowning as a phenomenon presents several difficulties - most of all, that global data concerning the number of occurrences are not accurate. Nevertheless, detailed analysis of the registered incidents allows the identification of risk factors of drowning. An in-depth analysis of the risk factors is the basis for the creation of targeted and effective strategies to prevent drowning. Due to variability of situations which could lead to a drowning episode, experts suggest the adoption of a multi-layer prevention model, rather than opting for isolated measures, since no single measure can prevent all deaths and injuries caused by submersion. Among the preventive measures we would like to emphasize instruction in swimming and water safety. So, what does "knowing how to swim" really mean? Some authors define mastery of this competence as swimming a given distance, while others put the emphasis on how this/any given distance is swum (Stallman, Junge, & Blixt, 2008. It has long been realized that there is no contradiction between learning those competencies which make a person less susceptible to drowning and those competencies which prepare the path towards higher levels of performance and competition. Aquatic movement researchers and practitioners and drowning prevention researchers and practitioners, share in the responsibility for drowning prevention though they are often unaware of it. The question “What should be taught to children?” is too infrequently asked. There remains great variation in what is taught and programs
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Myocardial infarction after near drowning.
Chen, Li-Bang; Lai, Yen-Chun; Chen, Chang-Chih; Chang, Wen-Han; Su, Yu-Jang
2008-06-01
During summer, near drowning is a common accident in Taiwan. It may lead to multiple organ damages in cases where severe hypothermia and hypoxemia occur. We present a case of myocardial infarction after near drowning. The patient was sent to our ED by the emergency medical services called by the witness. On arrival to our ED, hypothermia and hypoxemia overcame him. Endotracheal intubation and warm intravenous fluid were applied at once owing to drowsy consciousness, respiratory distress, and hypothermia. Electrocardiogram showed diffuse ST-segment elevation over the precordial leads V2-V6. The initial level of cardiac enzymes was within normal limit but elevated in troponin I on the second day after hospitalization. We presumed that the possibility of myocardial infarction resulted from near drowning-related hypoxemia. To our knowledge, this is the first case describing myocardial injury with electrocardiogram changes after near drowning.
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Keep up or drown: adjustment of western Pacific coral reefs to sea-level rise in the 21st century.
van Woesik, R; Golbuu, Y; Roff, G
2015-07-01
Since the Mid-Holocene, some 5000 years ago, coral reefs in the Pacific Ocean have been vertically constrained by sea level. Contemporary sea-level rise is releasing these constraints, providing accommodation space for vertical reef expansion. Here, we show that Porites microatolls, from reef-flat environments in Palau (western Pacific Ocean), are 'keeping up' with contemporary sea-level rise. Measurements of 570 reef-flat Porites microatolls at 10 locations around Palau revealed recent vertical skeletal extension (78±13 mm) over the last 6-8 years, which is consistent with the timing of the recent increase in sea level. We modelled whether microatoll growth rates will potentially 'keep up' with predicted sea-level rise in the near future, based upon average growth, and assuming a decline in growth for every 1°C increase in temperature. We then compared these estimated extension rates with rates of sea-level rise under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our model suggests that under low-mid RCP scenarios, reef-coral growth will keep up with sea-level rise, but if greenhouse gas concentrations exceed 670 ppm atmospheric CO2 levels and with +2.2°C sea-surface temperature by 2100 (RCP 6.0 W m(-2)), our predictions indicate that Porites microatolls will be unable to keep up with projected rates of sea-level rise in the twenty-first century.
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Profile of drowning victims in a coastal community.
Nichter, M A; Everett, P B
1989-02-01
Accidental drowning accounts for 15% of all accidental deaths in Pinellas County, Florida, and this study was conducted to better understand the epidemiologic profile of the victim. The medical examiner's records of 230 drownings in Pinellas County from January 1, 1983, through December 31, 1987, were reviewed for demographic and epidemiologic data. Bodies of salt water were the most common drowning site (47%), followed by swimming pools (22%), lakes (11%), baths (7%), and canals (6%). The drowning incidence for males was more than three times that for females. Drowning was endemic among boys less than five years of age (30/100,000/year). Fifty-nine percent of young adult victims had detectable postmortem blood alcohol levels. Drowning rates were highest among children less than five years and adults more than 80 years. Epidemiologic profiles of populations at risk and contributing factors are described and public safety measures are suggested.
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Epidemiology of drowning and near drowning at Karachi beaches from 2012 to 2014.
Shaikh, Masood Ali
2016-05-01
Karachi Municipal Corporation's Emergency Response Center's lifeguards save drowning individuals, recover dead bodies of drowned individuals, and provide first aid care to injured victims of near-drowning and road traffic accidents on the road along the various beaches.Cumulatively302 drowning and near-drowning 302 incidents were recorded from 2012 to 2014, with 291 (96.3%) incidents involving males. One hundred ninety-six (64.9%) individuals were saved from drowning, out of which 116 (59.2%) were saved on Sundays, followed by 31 (15.8%) on Saturdays; with 79 (40.3%) being saved during the hours 06:00 PM to 07:59 PM. Out of total 34 dead bodies were recovered, Sundays registered 8 (23.5%) such incidents. Out of the 72 individuals who received first-aid care, 60 (83.3%) received it on Sundays and Saturdays. The months of April, May, and June were the peak months of incidents for saving from drowning. Results augur the need for targeted health education campaigns, especially during summer months.
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Infant bath seats, drowning and near-drowning.
Byard, R W; Donald, T
2004-01-01
To investigate the possible role of infant bathtub seats in drowning and near-drowning episodes in infants. A review was conducted of the files of the Forensic Science Centre and Child Protection Unit, Women's and Children's Hospital, Adelaide, South Australia, for significant immersion incidents in infants involving bathtub seats from January 1998 to December 2003. A total of six cases of drowning occurred over the 6-year period of the study in children under 2 years of age, including two infants. One of these cases, a 7-month-old boy, had been left unattended for some time in an adult bath in a bathtub seat. He was found drowned, having submerged after slipping down and becoming trapped in the seat. Three near-drowning episodes occurred in children under the age of 2 years, including two boys aged 7 and 8 months, both of whom had been left for some time in adult baths in bath seats. Both were successfully resuscitated and treated in hospital. These cases demonstrate the vulnerability of infants to immersion incidents when left unattended in bathtubs. Bathtubs are particularly dangerous for infants as the slippery and smooth surfaces predispose to loss of balance and make escape from water difficult. Infant bathtub seats may give parents and child carers a false sense of security leading to infants being left unattended. Unfortunately, however, infants may fall out of, or slip and become trapped in, such seats. Infants and young children cannot be left unsupervised in water, and devices used as bathing aids such as bathtub seats may contribute to immersion incidents.
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Kids can't float: epidemiology of paediatric drowning and near-drowning in Singapore.
Tyebally, A; Ang, S Y
2010-05-01
The aim of this research was to study the epidemiology of paediatric near-drowning and drowning victims in Singapore so as to determine the risk factors that will guide drowning prevention strategies. A total of 38 children aged 0-16 years, who were managed in the Emergency Departments of the Singapore Health Services network or the Department of Forensic Medicine, Health Sciences Authority, for drowning and near-drowning between February 2002 and January 2004, were surveyed as part of the Childhood Injury Surveillance Project. Data on demographics, the location of injury, environmental factors and injury particulars was collected by means of questionnaire forms, review of the in-patient records and the coroner's reports. A total of 38 drowning or near-drowning cases in Singapore were reported during the study period, with nine deaths. The median age of the victims was 6.3 years. 52.6 percent of the incidents occurred in swimming pools. 60 percent of the swimming pools had a lifeguard on duty, and all the deaths that occurred in swimming pools were in those without a lifeguard. In 39.5 percent of the cases, no safety features were present at the site of the incident. Most of the deaths by drowning occurred in the sea (55.5 percent). Deaths by drowning are preventable, and appropriate environmental redesign, legislation and public education are necessary to reduce the rate of paediatric drowning. The important factors that are lacking include the absence of pool fencing and lifeguards at swimming pools and recreational beaches.
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Modeling and Analysis of Sea-level Rise Impacts on Salinity in the Lower St. Johns River
Bacopoulos, P.
2015-12-01
There is deliberate attention being paid to studying sea-level rise impacts on the lower St. Johns River, a drowned coastal plain-type estuary with low topographic drive, located in northeastern Florida. One area of attention is salinity in the river, which influences the entire food web, including sea and marsh grasses, juvenile crustaceans and fishes, wading birds and migratory waterfowl, marine mammals and other predator animals. It is expected that elevated ocean levels will increase the salinity of the estuarine waters, leading to deleterious effects on dependent species of the river biology. The objective of the modeling and analysis was: 1) to establish baseline conditions of salinity for the lower St. Johns River; and 2) to examine future conditions of salinity, as impacted by sea-level rise. Establishing baseline conditions entailed validation of the model for present-day salinity in the lower St. Johns River via comparison to available data. Examining future conditions entailed application of the model for sea-level rise scenarios, with comparison to the baseline conditions, for evaluation of sea-level rise impacts on salinity. While the central focus was on the physics of sea-level rise impacts on salinity, some level of salinity-biological assessment was conducted to identify sea-level rise/salinity thresholds, as related to negatively impacting different species of the river biology.
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Holocene evolution of a drowned melt-water valley in the Danish Wadden Sea
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Jørn Bjarke Torp; Svinth, Steffen; Bartholdy, Jesper
2009-01-01
Cores from the salt marshes along the drowned melt-water valley of river Varde Å in the Danish Wadden Sea have been dated and analysed (litho- and biostratigraphically) to reconstruct the Holocene geomorphologic evolution and relative sea level history of the area. The analysed cores cover...... the total post-glacial transgression, and the reconstructed sea level curve represents the first unbroken curve of this kind from the Danish Wadden Sea, including all phases from the time where sea level first reached the Pleistocene substrate of the area. The sea level has been rising from - 12 m below...... the present level at c. 8400 cal yr BP, interrupted by two minor drops of sea level rise, and the Holocene sequence consists in most places of clay atop...
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A case of severe acute kidney injury by near-drowning.
Seong, Eun Young; Rhee, Harin; Lee, Naria; Lee, Sung Jun; Song, Sang Heon; Lee, Dong Won; Lee, Soo Bong; Sol, Mee Young; Kwak, Ihm Soo
2012-02-01
Acute kidney injury (AKI) secondary to near-drowning is rarely described and poorly understood. Only few cases of severe isolated AKI resulting from near-drowning exist in the literature. We report a case of near-drowning who developed to isolated AKI due to acute tubular necrosis (ATN) requiring dialysis. A 21-yr-old man who recovered from near-drowning in freshwater 3 days earlier was admitted to our hospital with anuria and elevated level of serum creatinine. He needed five sessions of hemodialysis and then renal function recovered spontaneously. Renal biopsy confirmed ATN. We review the existing literature on near-drowning-induced AKI and discuss the possible pathogenesis.
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A case of acute kidney injury by near-drowning.
Amir, A; Lee, Y L
2013-01-01
Acute kidney injury following immersion or near-drowning is rarely described and no data from Malaysia have been found. We report a case of acute kidney injury following a near-drowning event. A 20-year-old man who recovered from near-drowning in a swimming pool 5 days earlier presented to our clinic with abdominal pain, anorexia, nausea and polyuria. Dipstick urinalysis showed a trace of blood. The serum creatinine level was 10-fold higher than the normal range. A bedside ultrasound showed features suggestive of acute tubular necrosis. He is then referred to the hospital with the diagnosis of acute kidney injury with the possibility of acute tubular necrosis secondary to near-drowning. We suggest that any patient presenting after immersion or near-drowning to be should assessed for potential acute kidney injury.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kawasumi, Yusuke; Sato, Yuki; Sato, Yumi; Ishibashi, Tadashi [Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Clinical Imaging, Sendai, Miyagi (Japan); Usui, Akihito; Daigaku, Nami; Hosokai, Yoshiyuki [Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Diagnostic Image Analysis, Sendai, Miyagi (Japan); Hayashizaki, Yoshie; Funayama, Masato [Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Forensic Medicine, Sendai, Miyagi (Japan)
2016-04-15
To evaluate the difference in sinus fluid volume and density between saltwater and freshwater drowning and diagnose saltwater drowning in distinction from freshwater drowning. Ninety-three drowning cases (22 saltwater and 71 freshwater) were retrospectively investigated; all had undergone post-mortem CT and forensic autopsy. Sinus fluid volume and density were calculated using a 3D-DICOM workstation, and differences were evaluated. Diagnostic performance of these indicators for saltwater drowning was evaluated using a cut-off value calculated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The median sinus fluid volume was 5.68 mL in cases of saltwater drowning (range 0.08 to 37.55) and 5.46 mL in cases of freshwater drowning (0.02 to 27.68), and the average densities were 47.28 (14.26 to 75.98) HU and 32.56 (-14.38 to 77.43) HU, respectively. While sinus volume did not differ significantly (p = 0.6000), sinus density was significantly higher in saltwater than freshwater drowning cases (p = 0.0002). ROC analysis for diagnosis of saltwater drowning determined the cut-off value as 37.77 HU, with a sensitivity of 77 %, specificity of 72 %, PPV of 46 % and NPV of 91 %. The average density of sinus fluid in cases of saltwater drowning was significantly higher than in freshwater drowning cases; there was no significant difference in the sinus fluid volume. (orig.)
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kawasumi, Yusuke; Sato, Yuki; Sato, Yumi; Ishibashi, Tadashi; Usui, Akihito; Daigaku, Nami; Hosokai, Yoshiyuki; Hayashizaki, Yoshie; Funayama, Masato
2016-01-01
To evaluate the difference in sinus fluid volume and density between saltwater and freshwater drowning and diagnose saltwater drowning in distinction from freshwater drowning. Ninety-three drowning cases (22 saltwater and 71 freshwater) were retrospectively investigated; all had undergone post-mortem CT and forensic autopsy. Sinus fluid volume and density were calculated using a 3D-DICOM workstation, and differences were evaluated. Diagnostic performance of these indicators for saltwater drowning was evaluated using a cut-off value calculated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The median sinus fluid volume was 5.68 mL in cases of saltwater drowning (range 0.08 to 37.55) and 5.46 mL in cases of freshwater drowning (0.02 to 27.68), and the average densities were 47.28 (14.26 to 75.98) HU and 32.56 (-14.38 to 77.43) HU, respectively. While sinus volume did not differ significantly (p = 0.6000), sinus density was significantly higher in saltwater than freshwater drowning cases (p = 0.0002). ROC analysis for diagnosis of saltwater drowning determined the cut-off value as 37.77 HU, with a sensitivity of 77 %, specificity of 72 %, PPV of 46 % and NPV of 91 %. The average density of sinus fluid in cases of saltwater drowning was significantly higher than in freshwater drowning cases; there was no significant difference in the sinus fluid volume. (orig.)
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A case of acute kidney injury by near-drowning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amirah Amir
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Acute kidney injury following immersion or near-drowning is rarely described and no data from Malaysia have been found. We report a case of acute kidney injury following a near-drowning event. A 20-yearold man who recovered from near-drowning in a swimming pool 5 days earlier presented to our clinic with abdominal pain, anorexia, nausea and polyuria. Dipstick urinalysis showed a trace of blood. The serum creatinine level was 10-fold higher than the normal range. A bedside ultrasound showed features suggestive of acute tubular necrosis. He is then referred to the hospital with the diagnosis of acute kidney injury with the possibility of acute tubular necrosis secondary to near-drowning. We suggest that any patient presenting after immersion or near-drowning to be should assessed for potential acute kidney injury
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Murray, Kathryn; Carter, Peter
2017-01-01
Drowning is a newly comprehended public health concern in Fiji. Defined as "the process of experiencing respiratory impairment from submersions or immersion in liquid," drowning has been identified as one of Fiji's 5 leading causes of death for those aged 1 to 29 years. The aim of this article was to develop the most parsimonious model that can be used to explain the number of monthly fatal drowning cases in Fiji. Based on a cross-section of 187 drowning incidents from January 2012 to April 2015, this observational study found the number of monthly drownings in Fiji was significantly affected by monthly rainfall ( P = .008, 95% confidence interval = 0.10-0.62) and the number of days comprising public holidays/weekends ( P = .018, 95% confidence interval = 0.06-0.60). Furthermore, the multiple coefficient of determination ( r 2 = .4976) indicated that almost half the variation in drownings was explained by rainfall and public holidays/weekend periods. Inadequate supervision, an inability to identify or carry out safe rescue techniques, and limited water-safety knowledge were identified as common risk factors. To overcome this preventable cause of death, technically guided interventions need to be actively embedded into a range of government policies and community health promotions, disaster management, and education programs.
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Phipps, James B.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Atwater, Brian F.
2015-06-18
Tidal marshes commonly build upward apace with gradual rise in the level of the sea. It is expected, however, that few tidal marshes will keep up with accelerated sea-level rise later in this century. Tidal marshes have been drowned, moreover, after subsiding during earthquakes.
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Chen, R.; Fan, J.
2015-12-01
The concept of drowning unconformity of lacustrine rift basins was proposed in this paper. This paper utilized 3D seismic data, well-log and the principles methods associated with structural geology, sedimentology and geochemistry, to analyze the drowning unconformity and discuss the origins of drowning unconformity in Dongying Sag in Bohai Bay Basin.Researching on it is not only important for a better understanding of tectonic evolution, palaeogeography and sedimentation of hydrocarbon source rocks, but also a vital guiding significance for the exploration of beach-bar sandstone reservoirs and shale oil.1. The concept of drowning unconformity of lacustrine rift basins is defined. With the consequences of rapid tectonic subsidence in basin, the sharp rise of lake-level and the increased rate of accommodation(A) in basin exceeded the rate of sediment supply(S),namely A>>S, the basin suddenly transformed into deep-water settings from shallow-water settings with sudden change of sediment transport and sediment dispersal patterns. 2.The sequence surface between Sha4 and Sha3 Member of Shahejie Formation is the drowning unconformity(43.5Ma). There are the sedimentary association of the reefs in shallow lacustrine, beach-bar sandstones and glutenite fan bodies under the surface. By contrast, there are the sedimentary association of deep-lake oil shales and shales over the surface. The drowning unconformity in Dongying Sag is a tectonic revolution surface which is changed from extensional tectonics to transtensional tectonics and it is also the surface of discontinuity from shallow lacustrine to deep lacustrine. The responses to sudden changes appeared in the parameters of geophysics, geochemistry and paleontology. 3. With the penetration of India into Asia plate in NNE trending,the subduction zones of Pacific Plate retreated. It caused the rapid downwelling of asthenospheric mantle, followed by the extensive drowning unconformity.
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Hallock, Pamela; Hine, Albert C.; Vargo, Gabriel A.; Elrod, Jane A.; Jaap, Walter C.
1988-12-01
The Nicaraguan Rise is an active tectonic structure in the western Caribbean. Carbonate accumulation on its platforms has not kept pace with relative Holocene sea-level rise, despite a tropical location remote from terrigenous sedimentation. Trophic resources apparently exceed levels favoring coral-reef development because sponge-algal communities dominate the drowning western platforms, in contrast to mixed coral-algal benthos on Pedro Bank and well- developed coral reefs along the north coast of Jamaica. Concentrations of biotic pigments in sea-surface waters show a corresponding west-east gradient; oceanic waters flowing over the western banks carry nearly twice as much biotic pigment as oceanic waters north of Jamaica. Sources enriching the western Caribbean are terrestrial runoff, upwelling off northern South America, and topographic upwelling over the Nicaraguan Rise. That relatively modest levels of trophic resources can suppress coral-reef development holds important implications for understanding carbonate platform drownings in the geologic record.
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Szpilman, David; Orlowski, James P
2016-09-01
Aquatic sports are included in the top list of risky practices as the environment per se carries a possibility of death by drowning if not rescued in time. Not only are aquatic sports related to a high risk of death, but also all sports practiced on the water, over the water and on ice. Whatever the reason a person is in the water, drowning carries a higher possibility of death if the individual is unable to cope with the water situation, which may simply be caused by an inability to stay afloat and get out of the water or by an injury or disease that may lead to physical inability or unconsciousness. The competitive nature of sports is a common pathway that leads the sports person to exceed their ability to cope with the environment or simply misjudge their physical capability. Drowning involves some principles and medical interventions that are rarely found in other medical situations as it occurs in a deceptively hostile environment that may not seem dangerous. Therefore, it is essential that health professionals are aware of the complete sequence of action in drowning. This article focuses on the pulmonary injury in sports and recreational activities where drowning plays the major role. Copyright ©ERS 2016.
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Can barrier islands survive sea level rise? Tidal inlets versus storm overwash
Nienhuis, J.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.
2017-12-01
Barrier island response to sea level rise depends on their ability to transgress and move sediment to the back barrier, either through flood-tidal delta deposition or via storm overwash. Our understanding of these processes over decadal to centennial timescales, however, is limited and poorly constrained. We have developed a new barrier inlet environment (BRIE) model to better understand the interplay between tidal dynamics, overwash fluxes, and sea-level rise on barrier evolution. The BRIE model combines existing overwash and shoreface formulations [Lorenzo-Trueba and Ashton, 2014] with alongshore sediment transport, inlet stability [Escoffier, 1940], inlet migration and flood-tidal delta deposition [Nienhuis and Ashton, 2016]. Within BRIE, inlets can open, close, migrate, merge with other inlets, and build flood-tidal delta deposits. The model accounts for feedbacks between overwash and inlets through their mutual dependence on barrier geometry. Model results suggest that when flood-tidal delta deposition is sufficiently large, barriers require less storm overwash to transgress and aggrade during sea level rise. In particular in micro-tidal environments with asymmetric wave climates and high alongshore sediment transport, tidal inlets are effective in depositing flood-tidal deltas and constitute the majority of the transgressive sediment flux. Additionally, we show that artificial inlet stabilization (via jetty construction or maintenance dredging) can make barrier islands more vulnerable to sea level rise. Escoffier, F. F. (1940), The Stability of Tidal Inlets, Shore and Beach, 8(4), 114-115. Lorenzo-Trueba, J., and A. D. Ashton (2014), Rollover, drowning, and discontinuous retreat: Distinct modes of barrier response to sea-level rise arising from a simple morphodynamic model, J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf., 119(4), 779-801, doi:10.1002/2013JF002941. Nienhuis, J. H., and A. D. Ashton (2016), Mechanics and rates of tidal inlet migration: Modeling and application to
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[Disease burden on drowning in the Chinese population, in 1990 and 2013].
Deng, X; Jin, Y; Ye, P P; Wang, L H; Duan, L L
2017-10-10
Objective: To comprehensively analyze the disease burden of drowning in the Chinese population both at the national and provincial levels in 1990 and 2013, to provide reference for the development of strategies regarding drowning prevention. Methods: Both methods related to unified measurement framework and standardized estimation on Global Burden of Disease in 2013, were used. Data on deaths caused by injuries were from the following sources which include: Disease Surveillance Points, the National Maternal and Child Health Surveillance Network, the Death Registration Reporting System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Death Registration System and death information from Macau and Hong Kong areas of China. Injury-related incidence data was from the National Injury Surveillance System and literature review. Parameters as death/death rate, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL)/standardized YLL rate, years living with disability (YLD)/standardized YLD rate and disability-adjusted of life years (DALY)/standardized DALY were used to analyze the disease burden and changing trend on drowning at both the national and all the provincial levels. Results: In 2013, the number of deaths due to drowning was63 619 in China, with the standardized mortality rate as 5.29 per 100 000, accounting for 8.0 % of the total injury deaths. Drowning was the fourth leading cause of injury death in the whole population and the first leading cause of injury death among children aged standardized mortality, standardized YLL, standardized YLD and standardized DALY of drowning all declined in 2013. The five provinces/districts/cities with the highest rates of drowning were Xinjiang (10.08 per 100 000), Jiangxi (8.44 per 100 000), Anhui (7.92 per 100 000), Guizhou (7.77 per 100 000) and Sichuan (7.68 per 100 000). Standardized mortality of drowning reduced in all provinces in 2013. Conclusions: Disease burden of drowning in the Chinese population, especially in
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Unintentional drowning: Role of medicinal drugs and alcohol.
Pajunen, Tuulia; Vuori, Erkki; Vincenzi, Frank F; Lillsunde, Pirjo; Smith, Gordon; Lunetta, Philippe
2017-05-19
Alcohol is a well-known risk factor in unintentional drownings. Whereas psychotropic drugs, like alcohol, may cause psychomotor impairment and affect cognition, no detailed studies have focused on their association with drowning. Finland provides extensive post-mortem toxicological data for studies on drowning because of its high medico-legal autopsy rates. Drowning cases, 2000 through 2009, for which post-mortem toxicological analysis was performed, came from the database of the Toxicological Laboratory, Department of Forensic Medicine, University of Helsinki, using the ICD-10 nature-of-injury code T75.1. The data were narrowed to unintentional drowning, using the ICD-10 external-injury codes V90, V92, and W65-74. Each drowning case had its blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and concentrations of other drugs recorded. Evaluation of the contribution of psychotropic drugs to drowning was based on their blood concentration by means of a 6-grade scale. Among victims ≥15 years old, unintentional drownings numbered 1697, of which, 303 (17.9%) were boating-related and 1394 (82.1%) non-boating-related. Among these, 65.0% of boating-related and 61.8% of non-boating-related victims were alcohol-positive (=BAC ≥ 50 mg/dL). The male-to-female ratio in alcohol-positive drownings was 7.3. At least one psychotropic drug appeared in 453 (26.7%) drowning cases, with some victims' bodies showing up to 7 different drugs. Overall 70 different psychotropic drugs were detectable, with 134 (7.9%) cases both alcohol-negative and psychotropic-drug-positive, of these, 59 (3.5%) were graded 4 to 6, indicating a possible to very probable contribution to drowning. Our findings suggest that psychotropic drugs may play a significant role in drowning, in up to 14.5% of cases, independently or in association with alcohol. Psychotropic drugs alone or in association with alcohol may be an overlooked risk factor in drowning, due to their effects on psychomotor function and cognition. Future
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Cognitive and Behavioral Risk Factors for Unintentional Drowning Among Rural Chinese Children.
Shen, Jiabin; Pang, Shulan; Schwebel, David C
2016-04-01
Unintentional drowning is among the top causes of pediatric death worldwide and the leading cause of death for children under age 14 in China. Environmental factors such as abundant bodies of water and psychosocial factors such as lack of parental supervision contribute to heightened risk of pediatric drowning in rural China, but little is known about the role of individual characteristics such as knowledge and perceived vulnerability in the drowning risk of rural Chinese children. The present study aimed to explore the cognitive and behavioral risk factors for unintentional drowning among school-aged rural Chinese children. Two hundred and eighty children (mean age = 10.03 years, range 8-13) enrolled at an elementary school in rural Zhejiang Province, China completed self-report assessments of knowledge about drowning prevention, perceived vulnerability toward drowning, and history of non-fatal drowning experiences, as well as demographic information. A simulation task using a dollhouse assessed children's anticipated behaviors with water. Fifty-two percent of the sample reported exposure to water sources at least once daily, and 21 % of the sample reported at least one non-fatal drowning experience in their lifetime. Regression analysis showed that male gender, better swimming ability, less safety knowledge, and lower levels of perceived vulnerability were associated with more self-reported risky practice in/near water. More safety knowledge also predicted safer behaviors in the dollhouse simulation task. None of the risk factors predicted self-reported history of non-fatal drowning incidents. High exposure to water sources and non-fatal drowning experiences were found among school-aged children in rural China. Drowning risk factors included demographic, cognitive, and behavioral characteristics of children. Results offer evidence for developing interventions in both Zhejiang Province and other regions with similar geographic and population characteristics.
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Usual water-related behaviour and 'near-drowning' incidents in young adults.
Gulliver, Pauline; Begg, Dorothy
2005-06-01
To describe usual water-related behaviour and 'near-drowning' incidents in a cohort of young New Zealand adults. This was a cross-sectional study based on data collected as part of the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, which is the study of a cohort (n = 1,037) born between 1 April 1972 and 31 March 1973 in Dunedin, New Zealand. The data analysed were collected at age 21 (1993/94). Each study member was given a face-to-face interview using a structured questionnaire. Males reported a higher level of water confidence, exposure to risk behaviours, and exposure to unsafe locations, and more 'near-drowning' incidents, than the females, but protective behaviour did not differ. Males and females who were 'confident' in the water were more likely to be exposed to unsafe water locations, and water-confident males were more likely to drink alcohol before water activities, but not boating. A total of 169 'near-drowning' incidents were reported by 141 study members (63% males). 'Near-drowning' incidents were associated with unsafe swimming environments for males (p near-drowning' incidents among a high-risk age group. Larger case-control studies are required to further investigate risk factors for 'near-drowning'. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTITIONERS: Further investigation is required to determine the effectiveness of providing water skills acquisition in both safe and unsafe environments on 'near-drowning' experience.
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Extracorporeal circulation for rewarming in drowning and near-drowning pediatric patients.
Coskun, Kasim Oguz; Popov, Aron Frederik; Schmitto, Jan Dieter; Hinz, José; Kriebel, Thomas; Schoendube, Friedrich Albert; Ruschewski, Wolfgang; Tirilomis, Theodor
2010-11-01
Drowning and near-drowning is often associated with severe hypothermia requiring active core rewarming.We performed rewarming by cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB). Between 1987 and 2007, 13 children (9 boys and 4 girls) with accidental hypothermia were rewarmed by extracorporeal circulation (ECC) in our institution. The average age of the patients was 3.2 years. Resuscitation was started immediately upon the arrival of the rescue team and was continuously performed during the transportation.All patients were intubated and ventilated. Core temperature at admission ranged from 20 to 29°C (mean 25.3°C). Connection to the CPB was performed by thoracic (9 patients) or femoral/iliac means (4 patients). Restoration of circulation was achieved in 11 patients (84.6%). After CPB termination two patients needed an extracorporeal membrane oxygenation system due to severe pulmonary edema.Five patients were discharged from hospital after prolonged hospital stay. During follow-up, two patients died(10 and 15 months, respectively) of pulmonary complications and one patient was lost to follow-up. The two remaining survivors were without neurological deficit.Modes of rewarming, age, sex, rectal temperature, and serum electrolytes did not influence mortality. In conclusion,drowning and near-drowning with severe hypothermia remains a challenging emergency. Rewarming by ECC provides efficient rewarming and full circulatory support.Although nearly half of the children may survive after rewarming by ECC, long-term outcome is limited by pulmonary and neurological complications.
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[Drowning - An update on prehospital and intrahospital treatment strategies].
Strunden, Mike Sebastian; Tank, Sascha; Kerner, Thoralf
2015-07-01
500000 people die from unintentional drowning each year worldwide. Drowning accidents occur to humans of every age, while fatal drowning is the leading cause of death among boys 5 to 14 years of age. In Germany, however, most drowning victims are elderly people. Considering the multitude of accident settings, ranging from bathing accidents in lakes to shipwrecks at sea, professional first responders need to adapt to various scenarios. This article summarizes the pathophysiology of drowning, particular features of prehospital life support and current knowledge on the further therapy of victims of near fatal drowning accidents. © Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart · New York.
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Zhou, Zeng; Ye, Qinghua; Coco, Giovanni
2016-07-01
We develop a biomorphodynamic model to investigate sediment and vegetation dynamics on a schematic intertidal flat characterized by an initially well-mixed sand-mud mixture. Major interactions between tides, wind waves, salt marshes, sediment transport and sea level rise (SLR) are taken into account. For a bare flat under only tidal action, the model predicts a convex cross-shore profile with the surficial distribution of mud and sand on the upper and lower part of the intertidal flat, respectively. When wind waves are strong, the intertidal flat is highly eroded resulting in a concave profile near the high water mark. This behavior is pronouncedly altered when the intertidal flat is vegetated with the presence of salt marshes. Numerical results suggest that a considerable amount of mud can still remain in the vegetated region even when wave action is strong. A steeper transition zone forms at the boundary between salt marshes and bare flats because of the differential sediment deposition in the two neighboring regions. The inclusion of wind waves is found to considerably enhance the size of the marsh-edge transition zone. For the numerical experiments designed in this study, the profile shape and sediment sorting behavior of tidal flats are not significantly modified by a gradual rising sea level. However, the impacts of SLR on vegetated tidal flats are still manifold: (a) driving the landward migration of intertidal zone and salt marshes; (b) enhancing sediment erosion on intertidal flats; and (c) drowning salt marshes under limited sediment supply with the constrain of seawalls. Finally, model results suggest that organic carbon accumulation on marshlands may be enhanced with an increasing SLR rate provided that salt marshes are not drowned.
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Utility of lung ultrasound in near-drowning victims.
Laursen, Christian B; Davidsen, Jesper Rømhild; Madsen, Poul Henning
2012-06-21
Drowning and near-drowning are common causes of accidental death worldwide and respiratory complications such as non-cardiogenic pulmonary oedema, acute respiratory distress syndrome and pneumonia are often seen. In other settings lung ultrasound can accurately diagnose these conditions; hence lung ultrasound may have a potential role in the evaluation of drowning or near-drowning victims. In this case report the authors describe a 71-year-old man who was brought to hospital with acute respiratory failure after a near-drowning accident. Lung ultrasound showed multiple B-lines on the anterior and lateral surfaces of both lungs, consistent with pulmonary oedema. Focus assessed transthoracic echocardiography showed no pericardial effusion and a normal global left ventricular function. Based on these findings the patient was diagnosed as having non-cardiogenic pulmonary oedema. Subsequent chest x-ray showed bilateral infiltrates consistent with pulmonary oedema. The case report emphasises the clinical value of lung ultrasound in the evaluation of a near-drowning victim.
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Trends in US Pediatric Drowning Hospitalizations, 1993–2008
Aitken, Mary E.; Robbins, James M.; Baker, Susan P.
2012-01-01
BACKGROUND: In the United States, drowning is the second leading cause of unintentional injury death in children aged 1 to 19 years, accounting for nearly 1100 deaths per year. Although a decline in overall fatal drowning deaths among children has been noted, national trends and disparities in pediatric drowning hospitalizations have not been reported. METHODS: To describe trends in pediatric drowning in the United States and provide national benchmarks for state and regional comparisons, we analyzed existing data (1993–2008) from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, the largest, longitudinal, all-payer inpatient care database in the United States. Children aged 0 to 19 years were included. Annual rates of drowning-related hospitalizations were determined, stratified by age, gender, and outcome. RESULTS: From 1993 to 2008, the estimated annual incidence rate of pediatric hospitalizations associated with drowning declined 49% from 4.7 to 2.4 per 100 000 (P drowning hospitalization declined from 0.5 (95% confidence interval, 0.4–0.7) deaths per 100 000 in 1993–1994 to 0.3 (95% confidence interval, 0.2–0.4) in 2007–2008 (P drowning have decreased over the past 16 years. Our study provides national estimates of pediatric drowning hospitalization that can be used as benchmarks to target and assess prevention strategies. PMID:22250031
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Drowning of British children abroad.
Cornall, P; Howie, S; Mughal, A; Sumner, V; Dunstan, F; Kemp, A; Sibert, J
2005-09-01
To quantify the risks of British children drowning abroad. The numbers of British children drowning abroad were estimated for 1996-2003 using the RoSPA/RLSS press cutting database. We compared these figures with the numbers of British children going abroad from the International Passenger Survey from the Office of National Statistics. Sixty-eight children (45 boys-23 Girls) drowned in the eight-year period: 48 (71%) in swimming pools (mostly in hotels). Allowing for exposure, the rate was higher in North America [5.2 (CI 2.9-9.4)/million tourists] than the European Union [1.9 (CI 1.4-2.5)/million tourists] p = 0.002. On average eight British children drown each year abroad. This is therefore a rare but tragic event. Most of these episodes happen in swimming pools and this needs to be compared to the one child that dies each year in municipal swimming pools in the United Kingdom where there is adequate lifeguarding. It may be that parents have a false sense of security for their children in pools abroad. We believe that there needs to be action from the European Union on this important event.
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Utility of Lung Ultrasound in Near-Drowning Victims
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Laursen, Christian Borbjerg; Rømhild Davidsen, Jesper; Madsen, Poul Henning
2013-01-01
ultrasound may have a potential role in the evaluation of drowning or near-drowning victims. In this case report the authors describe a 71-year-old man who was brought to hospital with acute respiratory failure after a near-drowning accident. Lung ultrasound showed multiple B-lines on the anterior......Drowning and near-drowning are common causes of accidental death worldwide and respiratory complications such as non-cardiogenic pulmonary oedema, acute respiratory distress syndrome and pneumonia are often seen. In other settings lung ultrasound can accurately diagnose these conditions; hence lung...... and lateral surfaces of both lungs, consistent with pulmonary oedema. Focus assessed transthoracic echocardiography showed no pericardial effusion and a normal global left ventricular function. Based on these fi ndings the patient was diagnosed as having non-cardiogenic pulmonary oedema. Subsequent chest x...
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Gušić, I.; Jelaska, V.
1993-12-01
The Adriatic carbonate platform existed throughout most of the Mesozoic as an isolated (‘intraoceanic’) carbonate platform. It is characterized by what has been traditionally labelled a ‘continuous’ shallow marine carbonate sedimentation, without terrigenous influences. However, global sea-level changes left unequivocal imprints in the ‘continuous’ carbonate record, thus proving that the carbonate platform sensitively responded to sea-level fluctuations. This paper focuses on the relatively short Cenomanian — Turonian drowning event, which temporarily submerged the platform below the euphotic zone, and which is related here to the well known global Cenomanian — Turonian sea-level highstand. This drowning episode is characterized by the abrupt disappearance of numerous shallow water benthic invertebrate taxa and by an abundant occurrence of planktonic organisms, including calcispheres and ‘primitive’ planktonic foraminifera. Near the middle of the Turonian, the platform regime was re-established, correlating with the global fall in sea level. The situation is different only at the south-west margin of the platform, where pelagic sedimentation, initiated near the end of the Cenomanian, continues into the Santonian and probably marks the Adriatic trough. The drowning began earlier (in the Middle Cenomanian) in those areas nearer to the north-east margin of the platform (the area of what is today central Croatia) and then progressed gradually towards the more interior areas of the platform (the middle Dalmatian islands), which were drowned near the end of the Cenomanian.
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[Recommendations for the prevention of drowning].
Rubio, B; Yagüe, F; Benítez, M T; Esparza, M J; González, J C; Sánchez, F; Vila, J J; Mintegi, S
2015-01-01
Drowning is the second leading cause of non-intentional death in children under the age of 19 in Europe. Weather conditions in Spain allow an extended period of contact with water, therefore increasing the risk of drowning (due to the increased exposure), and constitutes the second leading cause of accidental death in children less than 14 years of age. In children younger than 5 years, drowning occurs mostly in pools belonging to private homes or communities, while in older children, drowning is often linked to aquatic recreational activities in lakes, sea, rivers and canals, and at times associated with alcohol consumption. In this article, the Committee on Safety and Non-Intentional Injury Prevention in Childhood of the Spanish Association of Pediatrics provides a series of architectonic, educational and legislative recommendations to prevent such incidents. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.
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Drowning - post-mortem imaging findings by computed tomography
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Christe, Andreas; Aghayev, Emin; Jackowski, Christian; Thali, Michael J.; Vock, Peter
2008-01-01
The aim of this study was to identify the classic autopsy signs of drowning in post-mortem multislice computed tomography (MSCT). Therefore, the post-mortem pre-autopsy MSCT- findings of ten drowning cases were correlated with autopsy and statistically compared with the post-mortem MSCT of 20 non-drowning cases. Fluid in the airways was present in all drowning cases. Central aspiration in either the trachea or the main bronchi was usually observed. Consecutive bronchospasm caused emphysema aquosum. Sixty percent of drowning cases showed a mosaic pattern of the lung parenchyma due to regions of hypo- and hyperperfused lung areas of aspiration. The resorption of fresh water in the lung resulted in hypodensity of the blood representing haemodilution and possible heart failure. Swallowed water distended the stomach and duodenum; and inflow of water filled the paranasal sinuses (100%). All the typical findings of drowning, except Paltau's spots, were detected using post-mortem MSCT, and a good correlation of MSCT and autopsy was found. The advantage of MSCT was the direct detection of bronchospasm, haemodilution and water in the paranasal sinus, which is rather complicated or impossible at the classical autopsy. (orig.)
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A promising microbiological test for the diagnosis of drowning.
Lucci, Arturo; Campobasso, Carlo P; Cirnelli, Antonello; Lorenzini, Giulio
2008-11-20
A number of biological and chemical tests have been developed over the years to determine whether a person was drowned. This study focuses on the potential of a microbiological test for detecting common bacterial markers of water faecal pollution such as faecal coliforms (FC) and faecal streptococci (FS) as possible indicators of drowning. A promising previous study was carried out on central and peripheral blood samples of 42 drowned victims (20 cases in saltwater and 22 cases in freshwater) and 30 not-drowned bodies. To improve the accuracy of our previous results and also in order to investigate a possible cause of a false positive due to pulmonary passive diffusion and subsequently endogenous or exogenous bacterial invasion of the blood in the post-mortem interval (PMI), the FC and FS test was applied to bodies submerged in water but died from causes other than drowning. In the present study, blood samples collected from the left ventricle (LV), right ventricle (RV), femoral artery (FA) and, femoral vein (FV) of 10 drowned victims (5 cases in freshwater and 5 cases in seawater) and 3 not-drowned individuals with bodies submerged in water for a while after death have been analysed. Preliminary results are in agreement with other reports dealing with diatoms and marine bacteria that suggest to exclude the hypothesis of a passive penetration of sufficient quantities of drowning medium into circulation after death or during the agonal period. Based on our results there is also no evidence of a relevant dissemination of endogenous micro-flora from the gastrointestinal tract affecting the FS and FC test. There are still several other factors that could influence the applicability of post-mortem FS and FC cultures for the diagnosis of drowning and they need further investigations. The present article provides only a glimpse of the potential of the FS and FC test as bacteriological method for the diagnosis of drowning.
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Cortical blindness following a near-drowning incident.
Koo, Ellen H; Boxerman, Jerrold L; Murphy, Marjorie A
2011-12-01
Victims of near-drowning incidents often suffer neurologic injury with long-term sequelae secondary to hypoxic-ischemic injury. We describe a case of profound visual loss due to bilateral occipital lobe infarcts in a 23-year-old male victim of a near-drowning incident.
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Marchant, Jeanette; Cheng, Nicholas G; Lam, Lawrence T; Fahy, Fiona E; Soundappan, S V; Sounndapound, S V; Cass, Danny T; Browne, Gary J
2008-04-21
Eight children suffered drowning or near-drowning in Sydney pools over an 11-day period in January 2007. Four received basic life support (BLS) within 5 minutes of immersion and survived with good functional neurological outcomes. The other four were not discovered for >or= 5 minutes and all died. This cluster serves as a reminder that timely effective bystander BLS is crucial to survival and good clinical outcomes in near-drowning episodes.
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Drowning in the bible and contemporary society: responsibilities of religious caregivers.
Avramidis, Stathis
2010-06-01
The aim of this study was to research drowning incidents and rescues that are included in the Bible and provide recommendations for how religious caregivers can support psychologically affected victims. Results confirm that the Bible contains six aquatic emergencies. Persons threatened with drowning were saved by an act of God, a human act and acts of human/divine interaction, when, for example, a person was ordered by God to perform an action which resulted in saving people on the threshold of drowning. The drowning casualties were largely individual males and some cases with multiple victims (male and female) as well. The outcomes of the drowning incidents were the survival of most of the casualties whose stories are told in the Bible. One person is reported to have drowned. Drowning incidents occurred at sea and on earth. The types of rescues used were reach-rescue and rescue and survival. The drowning casualties were rescued from land and from ships and boats by human rescuers. Some rescues were achieved by divine miracles.
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[Retrospective analysis of 44 childhood drowning accidents].
Brüning, Caroline; Siekmeyer, Werner; Siekmeyer, Manuela; Merkenschlager, Andreas; Kiess, Wieland
2010-07-01
Worldwide, drowning is the second leading cause of unintentional death and the leading cause of cardiovascular failure for children [1-3]. The number of near-drownings, where the incident is survived for at least 24 hours, is assumed to be four times as high [5]. In the years 1994 until 2008 there were 44 cases of drowning treated at the children's department of the University of Leipzig. This number shows that even in a medical centre drowning incidents are only occasional incidents. Therefore it is important to know the sequelae and handlings to be able to react in case of an emergency. A total of 44 children suffering a drowning accident within the last 48 hours who were treated during the period of 01.01.1994 through 30.06.2008 at the Children's Centre at the University of Leipzig. A retrospective analysis using a structured questionnaire was done. Social demographic data, accident progress, clinical results and progress as well as outcome of the cases were investigated. During the analysed period in the median three children were treated each year after drowning incidents. Clustering in the summer and winter months and on the weekends was recognizable. The median age was 3.33 years and the group of high risk were children aged 1-3 years, especially boys. Sixty percent of the children came from stable social backgrounds. Half of the children suffered from drowning in created swimming pools or ponds, the rest in natural waters, public pools and sources of water in the household. The median submersion lasted 2 minutes. Correlation of submersions below 1 minute with a good, and submersions above 10 minutes with a negative outcome was shown. A Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of 3 points (n = 15) and pupils without light reaction (n = 14) were associated with a lethal outcome or residual neurological deficits. Looking at the laboratory values, correlation between severe acidotic pH-values with a very low base excess, high blood sugar as well as high lactate values and a
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African Journals Online (AJOL)
4 cases being reported, Africa has the highest rate of drowning in the world.[4] ... based practice standards, of which the key features and other notable research in ... victims, while ensuring that they have secured themselves to a fixed point.
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Diagnosis of drowning using post-mortem computed tomography - state of the art.
Raux, C; Saval, F; Rouge, D; Telmon, N; Dedouit, F
Recent studies using post-mortem computed tomography (PMCT) have suggested this imaging modality is of value in the positive diagnosis of drowning. We summarize the data from the literature regarding the diagnostic value of CT in cases of drowning. We performed an all-language search of literature published from 1999 to 2013 with the key words "post-mortem CT scan", "drowning and CT scan", "near-drowning diagnosis", and "drowning diagnosis". Only 11 articles, whose data enabled complementary statistical analysis, were included. The presence of fluid and sediment in paranasal sinuses appear to be the determinants of the diagnosis of drowning. The presence of fluid in the sinuses had a sensitivity of 100%, and of 90% in the trachea and main bronchi. The results were completed by the high specificity of the presence of sediment in the paranasal sinuses, upper airways and stomach, which was 100% for all three. Haemodilution was present in cases of drowning (p drowning.
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Kawasumi, Yusuke; Kawabata, Tomoyoshi; Sugai, Yusuke; Usui, Akihito; Hosokai, Yoshiyuki; Sato, Miho; Saito, Haruo; Ishibashi, Tadashi; Hayashizaki, Yoshie; Funayama, Masato
2013-10-01
Recent studies have reported that drowning victims frequently have fluid accumulation in the paranasal sinuses, most notably the maxillary and sphenoid sinuses. However, in our previous study, many non-drowning victims also had fluid accumulation in the sinuses. Therefore, we evaluated the qualitative difference in fluid accumulation between drowning and non-drowning cases in the present study. Thirty-eight drowning and 73 non-drowning cases were investigated retrospectively. The fluid volume and density of each case were calculated using a DICOM workstation. The drowning cases were compared with the non-drowning cases using the Mann-Whitney U-test because the data showed non-normal distribution. The median fluid volume was 1.82 (range 0.02-11.7) ml in the drowning cases and 0.49 (0.03-8.7) ml in the non-drowning cases, and the median fluid density was 22 (-14 to 66) and 39 (-65 to 77) HU, respectively. Both volume and density differed significantly between the drowning and non-drowning cases (p=0.001, p=0.0007). Regarding cut-off levels in the ROC analysis, the points on the ROC curve closest (0, 1) were 1.03ml (sensitivity 68%, specificity 68%, PPV 53%, NPV 81%) and 27.5 HU (61%, 70%, 51%, 77%). The Youden indices were 1.03ml and 37.8 HU (84%, 51%, 47%, 86%). When the cut-off level was set at 1.03ml and 27.5HU, the sensitivity was 42%, specificity 45%, PPV 29% and NPV 60%. When the cut-off level was set at 1.03ml and 37.8HU, sensitivity was 58%, specificity 32%, PPV 31% and NPV 59%. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Are drowned donors marginal donors? A single pediatric center experience.
Kumm, Kayla R; Galván, N Thao N; Koohmaraie, Sarah; Rana, Abbas; Kueht, Michael; Baugh, Katherine; Hao, Liu; Yoeli, Dor; Cotton, Ronald; O'Mahony, Christine A; Goss, John A
2017-09-01
Drowning, a common cause of death in the pediatric population, is a potentially large donor pool for OLT. Anecdotally, transplant centers have deemed these organs high risk over concerns for infection and graft dysfunction. We theorized drowned donor liver allografts do not portend worse outcomes and therefore should not be excluded from the donation pool. We reviewed our single-center experience of pediatric OLTs between 1988 and 2015 and identified 33 drowned donor recipients. These OLTs were matched 1:2 to head trauma donor OLTs from our center. A chart review assessed postoperative peak AST and ALT, incidence of HAT, graft and recipient survival. Recipient survival at one year between patients with drowned donor vs head trauma donor allografts was not statistically significant (94% vs 97%, P=.63). HAT incidence was 6.1% in the drowned donor group vs 7.6% in the control group (P=.78). Mean postoperative peak AST and ALT was 683 U/L and 450 U/L for drowned donors vs 1119 U/L and 828 U/L in the matched cohort. These results suggest drowned donor liver allografts do not portend worse outcomes in comparison with those procured from head trauma donors. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Unexplained Drownings and the Cardiac Channelopathies: A Molecular Autopsy Series
Tester, David J.; Medeiros-Domingo, Argelia; Will, Melissa L.; Ackerman, Michael J.
2011-01-01
OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and spectrum of mutations associated with long QT syndrome (LQTS) and catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) in a seemingly unexplained drowning cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From September 1, 1998, through October 31, 2010, 35 unexplained drowning victims (23 male and 12 female; mean ± SD age, 17±12 years [range, 4-69 years]) were referred for a cardiac channel molecular autopsy. Of these, 28 (20 male and 8 female) drowned while swimming, and 7 (3 male and 4 female) were bathtub submersions. Polymerase chain reaction, denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography, and DNA sequencing were used for a comprehensive mutational analysis of the 3 major LQTS-susceptibility genes (KCNQ1, KCNH2, and SCN5A), and a targeted analysis of the CPVT1-associated, RYR2-encoded cardiac ryanodine receptor was conducted. RESULTS: Of the 28 victims of swimming-related drowning, 8 (28.6%) were mutation positive, including 2 with KCNQ1 mutations (L273F, AAPdel71-73 plus V524G) and 6 with RYR2 mutations (R414C, I419F, R1013Q, V2321A, R2401H, and V2475F). None of the bathtub victims were mutation positive. Of the 28 victims who drowned while swimming, women were more likely to be mutation positive than men (5/8 [62.5%] vs 3/20 [15%]; P=.02). Although none of the mutation-positive, swimming-related drowning victims had a premortem diagnosis of LQTS or CPVT, a family history of cardiac arrest, family history of prior drowning, or QT prolongation was present in 50%. CONCLUSION: Nearly 30% of the victims of swimming-related drowning hosted a cardiac channel mutation. Genetic testing should be considered in the postmortem evaluation of an unexplained drowning, especially if a positive personal or family history is elicited. PMID:21964171
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Nelson, Joanna L; Zavaleta, Erika S
2012-01-01
Coastal salt marshes are among Earth's most productive ecosystems and provide a number of ecosystem services, including interception of watershed-derived nitrogen (N) before it reaches nearshore oceans. Nitrogen pollution and climate change are two dominant drivers of global-change impacts on ecosystems, yet their interacting effects at the land-sea interface are poorly understood. We addressed how sea-level rise and anthropogenic N additions affect the salt marsh ecosystem process of nitrogen uptake using a field-based, manipulative experiment. We crossed simulated sea-level change and ammonium-nitrate (NH(4)NO(3))-addition treatments in a fully factorial design to examine their potentially interacting effects on emergent marsh plants in a central California estuary. We measured above- and belowground biomass and tissue nutrient concentrations seasonally and found that N-addition had a significant, positive effect on a) aboveground biomass, b) plant tissue N concentrations, c) N stock sequestered in plants, and d) shoot:root ratios in summer. Relative sea-level rise did not significantly affect biomass, with the exception of the most extreme sea-level-rise simulation, in which all plants died by the summer of the second year. Although there was a strong response to N-addition treatments, salt marsh responses varied by season. Our results suggest that in our site at Coyote Marsh, Elkhorn Slough, coastal salt marsh plants serve as a robust N trap and coastal filter; this function is not saturated by high background annual N inputs from upstream agriculture. However, if the marsh is drowned by rising seas, as in our most extreme sea-level rise treatment, marsh plants will no longer provide the ecosystem service of buffering the coastal ocean from eutrophication.
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Where children and adolescents drown in Queensland: a population-based study.
Wallis, Belinda A; Watt, Kerrianne; Franklin, Richard C; Nixon, James W; Kimble, Roy M
2015-11-26
This retrospective population-based study examined drowning location by the site of immersion for both fatal and non-fatal drowning events in Queensland. Drowning location is not routinely collected, and this study used data linkage to identify drowning sites. The resulting enhanced quality data quantify drowning incidence for specific locations by geographic region, age group and by severity for the first time. Linked data were accessed from the continuum of care (prehospital, emergency, hospital admission and death data) on fatal and non-fatal drowning episodes in children aged 0-19 years in Queensland for the years 2002-2008 inclusive. Drowning locations ranked in order of overall incidence were pools, inland water, coastal water, baths and other man-made water hazards. Swimming pools produced the highest incidence rates (7.31/100,000) for overall drowning events and were more often privately owned pools and in affluent neighbourhoods. Toddlers 0-4 years were most at risk around pools (23.94/100,000), and static water bodies such as dams and buckets-the fatality ratios were highest at these 2 locations for this age group. Children 5-14 years incurred the lowest incidence rates regardless of drowning location. Adolescents 15-19 years were more frequently involved in a drowning incident on the coast shoreline, followed by inland dynamic water bodies. Linked data have resulted in the most comprehensive data collection on drowning location and severity to date for children in the state of Queensland. Most mortality and morbidity could have been prevented by improving water safety through engaged supervision around pools and bath time, and a heightened awareness of buckets and man-made water hazards around the farm home for young children. These data provide a different approach to inform prevention strategies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
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... among people of all ages. Learning and practicing water safety is important to prevent drowning accidents. ... Water safety tips for all ages include: Learn CPR . Never swim alone. Never dive into water unless ...
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Drowning in Pretoria, South Africa: A 10-year review.
Morris, N K; du Toit-Prinsloo, L; Saayman, G
2016-01-01
Drowning is classified as the 3rd leading cause of accidental deaths worldwide and is deemed to be a preventable cause of death. Bodies retrieved from a water medium pose several challenges to the forensic pathologist with the diagnosis of drowning being primarily one of exclusion. The aim of this study was to do a retrospective descriptive case audit of bodies retrieved from water and immersion related deaths, which were investigated at the Pretoria Medico-Legal Laboratory (PMLL) over a 10 year period (January 2002 through December 2011). A total of 346 cases were identified for inclusion into this study. In 6% (20) of these cases, the death was not related to drowning; in 14% (48) no clear cause of death could be ascertained and in 278 cases (80%) the cause of death was considered to have been due to drowning. Infants (under 1 year, of age) constituted 41 (15%) of the cases; toddlers (aged 1-2 years) comprised 52 (19%) cases; children (aged 2-13 years) 49 (18%) cases; adolescents (aged 13-18 years) comprised 10 (3%) cases; adults (above 18, years) made up 126 (45%) of the cases. The majority of the drownings, occurred in swimming pools [125 cases (38%)]. In infants 23 (56%) of, drownings occurred in swimming pools followed by buckets [7 cases (17%)]. Sixty-nine per cent of toddler drownings (36 cases) occurred in swimming, pools. In the adult population, 40 (32%) of cases occurred in pools and 35 cases (28%) in rivers. Positive blood alcohol results were recorded in 48, (42%) out of 113 cases where the test was requested, 40 (35%) of these, cases higher than 0.05 g per 100 ml. This study suggests that many drowning deaths in Pretoria may be preventable by introducing greater public awareness of the risks and instituting relatively simple, protective measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.
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Characteristics of unintentional drowning deaths in children with autism spectrum disorder.
Guan, Joseph; Li, Guohua
2017-12-08
The reported prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has increased markedly in the past two decades. Recent research indicates that children with ASD are at a substantially increased risk of injury mortality, particularly from unintentional drowning. The purpose of this study was to explore the circumstances of fatal unintentional drowning incidents involving children with ASD under 15 years of age. During January 2000 through May 2017, US newspapers reported a total of 23 fatal drowning incidents involving 18 boys and 5 girls with ASD. Age of victims ranged from 3 to 14 years (mean = 7.7 ± 2.9 years). These drowning incidents most commonly occurred in ponds (52.2%), followed by rivers (13.0%), and lakes (13.0%). For 11 incidents with location data available, the distance between victim residence and the water body where drowning occurred averaged 290.7 m (± 231.5 m). About three-quarters (73.3%) of the drowning incidents occurred in the afternoon hours from 12:00 to 18:59. Wandering was the most commonly reported activity that led to drowning, accounting for 73.9% of the incidents. Fatal drowning in children with ASD typically occur in water bodies near the victims' homes in the afternoon hours precipitated by wandering. Multifaceted intervention programs are urgently needed to reduce the excess risk of drowning in children with ASD.
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The use of non-uniform drowning terminology: a follow-up study.
Schmidt, Andrew C; Sempsrott, Justin R; Szpilman, David; Queiroga, Ana Catarina; Davison, Matt S; Zeigler, Ryan J; McAlister, Sean J
2017-07-17
In 2002, the World Congress on Drowning developed a uniform definition for drowning. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of "non-uniform drowning terminology" (NUDT) and "non-uniform drowning definitions" (NUDD) in peer-reviewed scientific literature from 2010 to 2016, and compare these findings with those from our unpublished study performing a similar analysis on literature from 2003 to 2010. A systematic review was performed using drowning-specific search terms in Pubmed and Web of Science. Titles and abstracts published between July 2010 and January 2016 were screened for relevance to the study focus. Articles meeting screening criteria were reviewed for exclusion criteria to produce the final group of studies. These articles were reviewed by four reviewers for NUDT and NUDD. The Fisher exact test was used to determine any statistically significant changes. The final group of studies included 167 articles. A total of 53 articles (32%) utilized NUDT, with 100% of these including the term "near drowning". The proportion of articles utilizing NUDT was significantly less than reported by our previous study (p drowning (uniform or non-uniform), with 15% of these utilizing NUDD. Our study reveals a statistically significant improvement over the past thirteen years in the use of uniform drowning terminology in peer-reviewed scientific literature, although year-to-year variability over the current study period does not yield an obvious trend. Of the articles reviewed during the 2010-2016 study period, 32% included outdated and non-uniform drowning terminology and definitions. While this reveals an absolute decrease of 11% as compared with the previous study period (2003-2010), there is still significant room for improvement.
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Moore, Laura J.; List, Jeffrey H.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Stolper, David
2010-09-01
Using a morphological-behavior model to conduct sensitivity experiments, we investigate the sea level rise response of a complex coastal environment to changes in a variety of factors. Experiments reveal that substrate composition, followed in rank order by substrate slope, sea level rise rate, and sediment supply rate, are the most important factors in determining barrier island response to sea level rise. We find that geomorphic threshold crossing, defined as a change in state (e.g., from landward migrating to drowning) that is irreversible over decadal to millennial time scales, is most likely to occur in muddy coastal systems where the combination of substrate composition, depth-dependent limitations on shoreface response rates, and substrate erodibility may prevent sand from being liberated rapidly enough, or in sufficient quantity, to maintain a subaerial barrier. Analyses indicate that factors affecting sediment availability such as low substrate sand proportions and high sediment loss rates cause a barrier to migrate landward along a trajectory having a lower slope than average barrier island slope, thereby defining an "effective" barrier island slope. Other factors being equal, such barriers will tend to be smaller and associated with a more deeply incised shoreface, thereby requiring less migration per sea level rise increment to liberate sufficient sand to maintain subaerial exposure than larger, less incised barriers. As a result, the evolution of larger/less incised barriers is more likely to be limited by shoreface erosion rates or substrate erodibility making them more prone to disintegration related to increasing sea level rise rates than smaller/more incised barriers. Thus, the small/deeply incised North Carolina barriers are likely to persist in the near term (although their long-term fate is less certain because of the low substrate slopes that will soon be encountered). In aggregate, results point to the importance of system history (e
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Moore, Laura J.; List, Jeffrey H.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Stolper, David
2010-01-01
Using a morphological-behavior model to conduct sensitivity experiments, we investigate the sea level rise response of a complex coastal environment to changes in a variety of factors. Experiments reveal that substrate composition, followed in rank order by substrate slope, sea level rise rate, and sediment supply rate, are the most important factors in determining barrier island response to sea level rise. We find that geomorphic threshold crossing, defined as a change in state (e.g., from landward migrating to drowning) that is irreversible over decadal to millennial time scales, is most likely to occur in muddy coastal systems where the combination of substrate composition, depth-dependent limitations on shoreface response rates, and substrate erodibility may prevent sand from being liberated rapidly enough, or in sufficient quantity, to maintain a subaerial barrier. Analyses indicate that factors affecting sediment availability such as low substrate sand proportions and high sediment loss rates cause a barrier to migrate landward along a trajectory having a lower slope than average barrier island slope, thereby defining an “effective” barrier island slope. Other factors being equal, such barriers will tend to be smaller and associated with a more deeply incised shoreface, thereby requiring less migration per sea level rise increment to liberate sufficient sand to maintain subaerial exposure than larger, less incised barriers. As a result, the evolution of larger/less incised barriers is more likely to be limited by shoreface erosion rates or substrate erodibility making them more prone to disintegration related to increasing sea level rise rates than smaller/more incised barriers. Thus, the small/deeply incised North Carolina barriers are likely to persist in the near term (although their long-term fate is less certain because of the low substrate slopes that will soon be encountered). In aggregate, results point to the importance of system history (e
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ECG Changes Due to Hypothermia Developed After Drowning: Case Report
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sabiye YILMAZ
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Drowning is one of the fatal accidents frequently encountered during the summer and is the most common cause of accidental death in the world. Anoxia, hypothermia, and metabolic acidosis are mainly responsible for morbidty. Cardiovascular effects may occur secondary to hypoxia and hypothermia. Atrial fibrillation, sinus dysrhythmias (rarely requiring treatment, and, in serious cases, ventricular fibrillation or asystole may develop, showing as rhythm problems on electrocardiogram and Osborn wave can be seen, especially during hypothermia. A 16-year-old male patient who was admitted to our hospital's emergency service with drowning is presented in this article. In our case, ventricular fibrillation and giant J wave (Osborn wave associated with hypothermia developed after drowning was seen. We present this case as a reminder of ECG changes due to hypothermia that develop after drowning. Response to cardiopulmonary resuscitation after drowning and hypothermia is not very good. Mortality is very high, so early resuscitation and aggressive treatment of cardiovascular and respiratory problems are important for life.
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Unintentional, non-fatal drowning of children: US trends and racial/ethnic disparities.
Felton, Heather; Myers, John; Liu, Gil; Davis, Deborah Winders
2015-12-15
The current study aimed to better understand trends and risk factors associated with non-fatal drowning of infants and children in the USA using two large, national databases. A secondary data analysis was conducted using the National Inpatient Sample and the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample databases. The analytic sample (n=19,403) included children near-drowning/non-fatal drowning. Descriptive, χ(2) and analysis of variance techniques were applied, and incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 population. Non-fatal drowning incidence has remained relatively stable from 2006 to 2011. In general, the highest rates of non-fatal drowning occurred in swimming pools and in children from racial/ethnic minorities. However, when compared with non-Hispanic Caucasian children, children from racial/ethnic minorities were more likely to drown in natural waterways than in swimming pools. Despite the overall lower rate of non-fatal drowning among non-Hispanic Caucasian children, the highest rate of all non-fatal drowning was for non-Hispanic Caucasian children aged 0-4 years in swimming pools. Children who were admitted to inpatient facilities were younger, male and came from families with lower incomes. Data from two large US national databases show lack of progress in preventing and reducing non-fatal drowning admissions from 2006 to 2011. Discrepancies are seen in the location of drowning events and demographic characteristics. New policies and interventions are needed, and tailoring approaches by age and race/ethnicity may improve their effectiveness. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
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Childhood drowning in South Africa: local data should inform prevention strategies.
Joanknecht, L; Argent, A C; van Dijk, M; van As, A B
2015-02-01
Drowning is an important cause of childhood injury, however, little is known about drowning in Africa. The aim of this study is to investigate submersion incidents in Cape Town, South Africa and provide specific prognostic factors as well as to develop age-appropriate prevention strategies. A retrospective chart review performed at the Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. Patients admitted because of 'drowning' or 'near-drowning' between January 2007 and April 2013 were included. 75 children were included. 63 (84 %) survived without complications, 8 (10.7 %) died and 4 (5.3 %) had permanent neurological sequelae. The median age was 2.2 years (range 0.1-12.4). 46 (60.5 %) incidents happened in or around the home, only 14 (18.7 %) were witnessed. 42 (56 %) took place in a pool (29 private, 13 public). Significant predictors of the outcome were: estimated submersion time, duration of apnea, unresponsive and dilated pupils, intubation and use of inotropes. On arrival at the ER we found these significant predictors of the outcome: CPR, a GCS drowning in the home environment. While bathing in baths or buckets, children should never be left alone and parents should be made aware of the dangers. In our study, the majority of incidents occurred in swimming pools and limiting access to these could prevent many incidents of drowning among older children. Although children of all language groups are at risk for drowning, English- or Afrikaans-speaking children were particularly at risk for drowning in private pools while Xhosa-speaking children mostly drowned in baths or buckets. We also report multiple prognostic factors for the outcome, but none of them were absolute predictive of the outcome, indicating that each victim of submersion deserves full resuscitative treatment.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joanna L Nelson
Full Text Available Coastal salt marshes are among Earth's most productive ecosystems and provide a number of ecosystem services, including interception of watershed-derived nitrogen (N before it reaches nearshore oceans. Nitrogen pollution and climate change are two dominant drivers of global-change impacts on ecosystems, yet their interacting effects at the land-sea interface are poorly understood. We addressed how sea-level rise and anthropogenic N additions affect the salt marsh ecosystem process of nitrogen uptake using a field-based, manipulative experiment. We crossed simulated sea-level change and ammonium-nitrate (NH(4NO(3-addition treatments in a fully factorial design to examine their potentially interacting effects on emergent marsh plants in a central California estuary. We measured above- and belowground biomass and tissue nutrient concentrations seasonally and found that N-addition had a significant, positive effect on a aboveground biomass, b plant tissue N concentrations, c N stock sequestered in plants, and d shoot:root ratios in summer. Relative sea-level rise did not significantly affect biomass, with the exception of the most extreme sea-level-rise simulation, in which all plants died by the summer of the second year. Although there was a strong response to N-addition treatments, salt marsh responses varied by season. Our results suggest that in our site at Coyote Marsh, Elkhorn Slough, coastal salt marsh plants serve as a robust N trap and coastal filter; this function is not saturated by high background annual N inputs from upstream agriculture. However, if the marsh is drowned by rising seas, as in our most extreme sea-level rise treatment, marsh plants will no longer provide the ecosystem service of buffering the coastal ocean from eutrophication.
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Neurologic long term outcome after drowning in children
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Suominen Pertti K
2012-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract Drowning is a major source of mortality and morbidity in children worldwide. Neurocognitive outcome of children after drowning incidents cannot be accurately predicted in the early course of treatment. Therefore, aggressive out-of-hospital and in-hospital treatment is emphasized. There are "miracle" cases after long submersion times that have been reported in the medical literature, which mostly concern small children. However, many of the survivors will remain severely neurologically compromised after remarkably shorter submersion times and will consequently be a great burden to their family and society for the rest of their lives. The duration of submersion, the need of advanced life support at the site of the accident, the duration of cardiopulmonary resuscitation, whether spontaneous breathing and circulation are present on arrival at the emergency room are important factors related to survival with mild neurological deficits or intact function in drowned children. Data on long-term outcome are scarce. The used outcome measurement methods and the duration of follow-up have not been optimal in most of the existing studies. Proper neurological and neurophysiological examinations for drowned children are superior to outcome scales based chart reviews. There is evidence that gross neurological examination at the time of discharge from the hospital in young children does not reveal all the possible sequelae related to hypoxic brain injury and thus long-term follow-up of drowned resuscitated children is strongly recommended.
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Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William
2010-01-01
Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.
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Hypercalcemic crisis resulting from near drowning in an indoor public bath.
Matsumoto, Ryusaku; Yamada, Go; Amano, Aya; Yamada, Tomoko; Hamamatsu, Keita; Murabe, Hiroyuki; Yokota, Toshihiko
2013-01-01
Male, 66. Hypercalcemic crisis. Near drowning state. - - Critical care medicine. Challenging differential diagnosis. Hypercalcemic crisis, generally caused by malignancy or primary hyperparathyroidism, is a life-threatening emergency that can result in multi-organ failure. Lowering the patient's calcium level immediately and determining the correct etiology are essential. We report a case of hypercalcemic crisis with a novel etiology. A 66-year-old male presented to the emergency room in cardiac arrest with a ventricular arrhythmia after being discovered submerged in an indoor public bath. He underwent cardioversion and was emergently intubated. Computed tomography showed bilateral pulmonary edema, suspected from water aspiration. Laboratory data revealed severe hypercalcemia and mild hypernatremia. Following three days of continuous hemodiafiltration, serum Ca decreased to and remained within normal limits. We concluded the etiology of hypercalcemia was absorption of Ca resulting from aspirated water. Near drowning can be a cause of hypercalcemic crisis. For cases of near drowning, it is important to investigate the source of the aspirated water and consider electrolyte abnormalities in the diagnosis.
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Diagnosis of drowning using post-mortem computed tomography – state of the art
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Catherine Raux
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Aim of the study: Recent studies using post-mortem computed tomography (PMCT have suggested this imaging modality is of value in the positive diagnosis of drowning. We summarize the data from the literature regarding the diagnostic value of CT in cases of drowning. Material and methods: We performed an all-language search of literature published from 1999 to 2013 with the key words “post-mortem CT scan”, “drowning and CT scan”, “near-drowning diagnosis”, and “drowning diagnosis”. Results : Only 11 articles, whose data enabled complementary statistical analysis, were included. The presence of fluid and sediment in paranasal sinuses appear to be the determinants of the diagnosis of drowning. The presence of fluid in the sinuses had a sensitivity of 100%, and of 90% in the trachea and main bronchi. The results were completed by the high specificity of the presence of sediment in the paranasal sinuses, upper airways and stomach, which was 100% for all three. Haemodilution was present in cases of drowning (p < 0.001. The values made it possible to formulate a decision algorithm for the diagnosis of drowning.
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Drowning investigated by post mortem computed tomography and autopsy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Leth, Peter Mygind; Madsen, Betina Hauge
2017-01-01
equal in drowning cases compared to controls, illustrating the phenomenon knows as “emphysema aquosum”. The physiological explanation could be washing out of surfactant by the drowning media, resulting in atelectasis and trapping of air in the peripheral lung regions. It was not possible to separate...
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Pediatric near-drowning events: do they warrant trauma team activation?
Chotai, Pranit N; Manning, Lisa; Eithun, Benjamin; Ross, Joshua C; Eubanks, James W; Hamner, Chad; Gosain, Ankush
2017-05-15
The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of traumatic injuries, factors associated with mortality, and need for pediatric trauma surgery involvement for drowning and near-drowning events in children. An institutional review board-approved, retrospective chart review was performed at three American College of Surgeons-verified Pediatric Trauma Centers (2011-2014). Patients with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes or E-codes for fatal-nonfatal drowning, fall into water, accidental drowning, or submersion were included. Bivariate analysis using chi-square or Fisher exact test for nominal variables and Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables was performed. A total of 363 patients (median 3.17 y [18 d-17 y]) met the inclusion criteria. Drowning sites included pool (81.5%), bathtub (12.9%), and natural water (5.2%). A witnessed fall or dive was reported in 34.9%, 57.9% did not fall or dive, and 7% had an unwitnessed event. Most patients did not undergo cervical spine (83%) or brain imaging (75.5%). Seven patients (1.92%) had associated soft tissue injuries. Two patients (0.006%) received surgical intervention (bronchoscopy and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) within 24 h of presentation. Only 2.2% were admitted to the pediatric trauma service. The percentage of patients discharged home from the emergency department was 10.2%. Overall mortality was 12.4%. Factors associated with mortality included transfer from outside hospital (P = 0.016), presence of hypothermia on arrival (P drowning in a pool (P = 0.013), or undergoing brain cooling at admission (P = 0.011). This is the largest reported series of pediatric near-drowning events. Only rarely did patients require immediate surgical attention and the majority were admitted to nonsurgical services. These data suggest that routine pediatric trauma surgery service involvement in patients with near-drowning events may be unnecessary. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier
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Borse, N N; Hyder, A A; Bishai, D; Baker, T; Arifeen, S E
2011-11-01
Childhood drowning is a major public health problem that has been neglected in many low- and middle-income countries. In Matlab, rural Bangladesh, more than 40% of child deaths aged 1-4 years are due to drowning. The main objective of this paper was to develop and evaluate a childhood drowning risk prediction index. A literature review was carried out to document risk factors identified for childhood drowning in Bangladesh. The Newacheck model for special health care needs for children was adapted and applied to construct a childhood drowning risk index called "Potential Risk Estimation Drowning Index for Children" (PREDIC). Finally, the proposed PREDIC Index was applied to childhood drowning deaths and compared with the comparison group from children living in Matlab, Bangladesh. This pilot study used t-tests and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve to analyze the results. The PREDIC index was applied to 302 drowning deaths and 624 children 0-4 years old living in Matlab. The results of t-test indicate that the drowned children had a statistically (t=-8.58, p=0.0001) significant higher mean PREDIC score (6.01) than those in comparison group (5.26). Drowning cases had a PREDIC score of 6 or more for 68% of the children however, the comparison group had 43% of the children with score of 6 or more which was statistically significant (t=-7.36, p<0.001). The area under the curve for the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was 0.662. Index score construction was scientifically plausible; and the index is relatively complete, fairly accurate, and practical. The risk index can help identify and target high risk children with drowning prevention programs. PREDIC index needs to be further tested for its accuracy, feasibility and effectiveness in drowning risk reduction in Bangladesh and other countries. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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[Invasive aspergillosis after near-drowning: case reports and review of the literature].
Li, Pei; Cao, E-hong; Zhao, Bei-lei; Sun, Hui-ming; Li, Miao-miao; Xu, Jin; Song, Yong; Shi, Yi
2011-09-01
The purpose of this study was to analyze the clinical presentations and disease courses of invasive aspergillosis (IA) in patients after near-drowning. The clinical data of 3 cases of invasive aspergillosis after near-drowning from Oct. 2005 to Aug. 2010 in this hospital were retrospectively analyzed, and the related literature was reviewed. There were 1 male and 2 female patients, aged from 18 to 72 years. All of them had been immunocompetent before drowning. Two patients drowned because of traffic accident, and 1 fell in sewage by accident. All of the 3 patients were intubated because of acute respiratory failure, and received broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy. One had transient leucopenia, and 2 patients received glucocorticoid therapy. The condition of the 3 cases deteriorated 9 to 11 days after near-drowning. Aspergillus was isolated from sputum samples of 2 patients at the same time. Thoracic CT findings included multiple nodules, consolidation and cavity formation. Multiple abscesses in cerebral parenchyma were found in 1 patient with invasive cerebral aspergillosis. One patient died, whose lungs, cerebral parenchyma, myocardium and kidney were all infected by aspergillus. The other 2 patients, whose infection limited to the lungs, had a positive prognosis. Using the terms "aspergillosis" and "near-drowning" a PUBMED search yielded 7 articles, published between 1984 and 2010. Using the terms "invasive pulmonary aspergillosis" and "near-drowning", searching Wangfang data and CHED data, encompass 1 article, published in 2009. In all of the 8 articles, there are 5 final diagnosis cases and 3 clinical diagnosis cases. IA was very rare in immunocompetent hosts but had been reported in previously healthy individuals after near-drowning. Aspergillosis might develop 1 to 2 weeks after near-drowning, and the prognosis was poor in patients with central nervous system involvement.
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Brain Resuscitation in the Drowning Victim
Topjian, Alexis A.; Berg, Robert A.; Bierens, Joost J. L. M.; Branche, Christine M.; Clark, Robert S.; Friberg, Hans; Hoedemaekers, Cornelia W. E.; Holzer, Michael; Katz, Laurence M.; Knape, Johannes T. A.; Kochanek, Patrick M.; Nadkarni, Vinay; van der Hoeven, Johannes G.
2013-01-01
Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death. Survivors may sustain severe neurologic morbidity. There is negligible research specific to brain injury in drowning making current clinical management non-specific to this disorder. This review represents an evidence-based consensus effort to provide recommendations for management and investigation of the drowning victim. Epidemiology, brain-oriented prehospital and intensive care, therapeutic hypothermia, neuroimaging/monitoring, biomarkers, and neuroresuscitative pharmacology are addressed. When cardiac arrest is present, chest compressions with rescue breathing are recommended due to the asphyxial insult. In the comatose patient with restoration of spontaneous circulation, hypoxemia and hyperoxemia should be avoided, hyperthermia treated, and induced hypothermia (32–34 °C) considered. Arterial hypotension/hypertension should be recognized and treated. Prevent hypoglycemia and treat hyperglycemia. Treat clinical seizures and consider treating non-convulsive status epilepticus. Serial neurologic examinations should be provided. Brain imaging and serial biomarker measurement may aid prognostication. Continuous electroencephalography and N20 somatosensory evoked potential monitoring may be considered. Serial biomarker measurement (e.g., neuron specific enolase) may aid prognostication. There is insufficient evidence to recommend use of any specific brain-oriented neuroresuscitative pharmacologic therapy other than that required to restore and maintain normal physiology. Following initial stabilization, victims should be transferred to centers with expertise in age-specific post-resuscitation neurocritical care. Care should be documented, reviewed, and quality improvement assessment performed. Preclinical research should focus on models of asphyxial cardiac arrest. Clinical research should focus on improved cardiopulmonary resuscitation, re-oxygenation/reperfusion strategies, therapeutic hypothermia
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The Hidden Tragedy of Rivers: A Decade of Unintentional Fatal Drowning in Australia.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amy E Peden
Full Text Available Describe unintentional drowning deaths in rivers, creeks and streams (rivers in Australia and identify risk factors to inform prevention.This study is a cross-sectional, total population audit of all unintentional fatal drownings in Australian rivers between 1-July-2002 and 30-June-2012 using Australian coronial data. A modified Bonferroni test has been applied, deeming statistical significance p<0.03 and p<0.04 respectively.Rivers (n = 770; 26.6% were the leading location among the 2,892 people who died from unintentional fatal drowning. This is a rate of 0.37/100,000 people / annum. Within river drowning deaths common groups include; males (80.4%, adults (85.3%, adults who have consumed alcohol (25.5%, people who fell in (21.3%, people involved in non-aquatic transport incidents (18.2% and locals (74.0%. Children were 1.75 times more likely than adults (p<0.04 to drown in rivers as a result of a fall and adults 1.50 times more likely to drown in rivers as a result of watercraft incidents when compared to children. When compared to males, females were 2.27 and 4.45 times respectively more likely to drown in rivers as a result of incidents involving non-aquatic transport (p<0.04 and being swept away by floodwaters (p<0.04. Males were 2.66 and 4.27 times respectively more likely to drown in rivers as a result of watercraft incidents (p<0.04 and as a result of jumping in (p<0.04 when compared to females.While rivers are the leading location for drowning in Australia, little is understood about the risks. This study has identified key groups (males, adults, locals and activities. While males were more likely to drown, the risk profile for females differed.
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Hossain, Mohammad Jahangir; Biswas, Animesh; Mashreky, Saidur Rahman; Rahman, Fazlur; Rahman, Aminur
2017-01-01
Background: Annual global death due to drowning accounts for 372,000 lives, 90% of which occur in low and middle income countries. Life in Bangladesh exposes adults and children to may water bodies for daily household needs, and as a result drowning is common. In Bangladesh, due to lack of systemic data collection, drowning among adults is unknown; most research is focused on childhood drowning. The aim of the present study was to explore the epidemiology of adulthood drowning deaths in Bangladesh. Methodology: A nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted from January to December in 2003 among 171,366 rural and urban households, with a sample of 819,429 individuals to determine the epidemiology of adulthood drowning in Bangladesh. Results: Annual fatal drowning incidence among adults was 5.85/100,000 individuals. Of these, 71.4% were male and 28.6% were female (RR 2.39). In total, 90% of the fatalities were from rural areas. Rural populations were also found to have a 8.58 times higher risk of drowning than those in urban areas. About 95% of drowning occurred in natural water bodies. About 61.6% of the deaths occurred at the scene followed by 33.5% at the home. Of the drowning fatalities, 67% took place in water bodies within 100 meters of the household. Among the drowning fatalities 78.4% occurred in daylight between 7.00 and 18.00. Over 97% of the victims were from poor socio economic conditions with a monthly income tk. 6,000 ($94) or less. Only 25.5% of incidences were reported to the police station. Conclusions: Every year a significant number of adults die due to drowning in Bangladesh. Populations living in rural areas, especially men, were the main victims of drowning. This survey finding might help policy makers and scientists to understand the drowning scenario among adults in Bangladesh.
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Keeping our heads above water: A systematic review of fatal drowning in South Africa.
Saunders, C J; Sewduth, D; Naidoo, N
2017-12-13
Drowning is defined as the process of experiencing respiratory impairment from submersion/immersion in liquid, and can have one of three outcomes - no morbidity, morbidity or mortality. The World Health Organization African region accounts for approximately 20% of global drowning, with a drowning mortality rate of 13.1 per 100 000 population. The strategic implementation of intervention programmes driven by evidence-based decisions is of prime importance in resource-limited settings such as South Africa (SA). To review the available epidemiological data on fatal drowning in SA in order to identify gaps in the current knowledge base and priority intervention areas. A systematic review of published literature was conducted to review the available epidemiological data describing fatal drowning in SA. In addition, an internet search for grey literature, including technical reports, describing SA fatal drowning epidemiology was conducted. A total of 13 published research articles and 27 reports obtained through a grey literature search met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. These 40 articles and reports covered data collection periods between 1995 and 2016, and were largely focused on urban settings. The fatal drowning burden in SA is stable at approximately 3.0 per 100 000 population, but is increasing as a proportion of all non-natural deaths. Drowning mortality rates are high in children aged <15 years, particularly in those aged <5. This review suggests that SA drowning prevention initiatives are currently confined to the early stages of an effective injury prevention strategy. The distribution of mortality across age groups and drowning location differs substantially between urban centres and provinces. There is therefore a need for detailed drowning surveillance to monitor national trends and identify risk factors in all SA communities.
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Seawater-drowning-induced acute lung injury: From molecular mechanisms to potential treatments.
Jin, Faguang; Li, Congcong
2017-06-01
Drowning is a crucial public safety problem and is the third leading cause of accidental fatality, claiming ~372,000 lives annually, worldwide. In near-drowning patients, acute lung injury (ALI) or acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is one of the most common complications. Approximately 1/3 of near-drowning patients fulfill the criteria for ALI or ARDS. In the present article, the current literature of near-drowning, pathophysiologic changes and the molecular mechanisms of seawater-drowning-induced ALI and ARDS was reviewed. Seawater is three times more hyperosmolar than plasma, and following inhalation of seawater the hyperosmotic seawater may cause serious injury in the lung and alveoli. The perturbing effects of seawater may be primarily categorized into insufficiency of pulmonary surfactant, blood-air barrier disruption, formation of pulmonary edema, inflammation, oxidative stress, autophagy, apoptosis and various other hypertonic stimulation. Potential treatments for seawater-induced ALI/ARDS were also presented, in addition to suggestions for further studies. A total of nine therapeutic strategies had been tested and all had focused on modulating the over-activated immunoreactions. In conclusion, seawater drowning is a complex injury process and the exact mechanisms and potential treatments require further exploration.
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Seawater-drowning-induced acute lung injury: From molecular mechanisms to potential treatments
Jin, Faguang; Li, Congcong
2017-01-01
Drowning is a crucial public safety problem and is the third leading cause of accidental fatality, claiming ~372,000 lives annually, worldwide. In near-drowning patients, acute lung injury (ALI) or acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is one of the most common complications. Approximately 1/3 of near-drowning patients fulfill the criteria for ALI or ARDS. In the present article, the current literature of near-drowning, pathophysiologic changes and the molecular mechanisms of seawater-drowning-induced ALI and ARDS was reviewed. Seawater is three times more hyperosmolar than plasma, and following inhalation of seawater the hyperosmotic seawater may cause serious injury in the lung and alveoli. The perturbing effects of seawater may be primarily categorized into insufficiency of pulmonary surfactant, blood-air barrier disruption, formation of pulmonary edema, inflammation, oxidative stress, autophagy, apoptosis and various other hypertonic stimulation. Potential treatments for seawater-induced ALI/ARDS were also presented, in addition to suggestions for further studies. A total of nine therapeutic strategies had been tested and all had focused on modulating the over-activated immunoreactions. In conclusion, seawater drowning is a complex injury process and the exact mechanisms and potential treatments require further exploration. PMID:28587319
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He, Siran; Lunnen, Jeffrey C; Zia, Nukhba; Khan, Uzma; Shamim, Khusro; Hyder, Adnan A
2015-01-01
Drowning is a heavy burden on the health systems of many countries, including Pakistan. To date, no effective large-scale surveillance has been in place to estimate rates of drowning and near-drowning in Pakistan. The Pakistan National Emergency Department Surveillance (Pak-NEDS) study aimed to fill this gap. Patients who presented with a complaint of "near-drowning" were analyzed to explore patterns of true near-drowning (unintentional) and intentional injuries that led to the "near-drowning" complaint. Bivariate analysis was done to establish patterns among patients treated in emergency departments, including socio-demographic information, injury-related information, accompanying injuries, and emergency department resource utilization. A total of 133 patients (0.2% of all injury patients) with "near-drowning" as presenting complaints were recorded by the Pak-NEDS system. True near-drowning (50.0%) and intentional injuries that led to "near-drowning" complaints (50.0%) differed in nature of injuries. The highest proportion of true near-drowning incidents occurred among patients aged between 25-44 years (47.5%), and among males (77.5%). True near-drowning patients usually had other accompanying complaints, such as lower limb injury (40.0%). Very few patients were transported by ambulance (5.0%), and triage was done for 15% of patients. Eleven (27.5%) true near-drowning patients received cardiopulmonary resuscitation. There was major under-reporting of drowning and near-drowning cases in the surveillance study. The etiology of near-drowning cases should be further studied. Patients who experienced non-fatal drownings were more commonly sent for medical care due to other accompanying conditions, rather than near-drowning event itself. There is also need for recognizing true near-drowning incidents. The results of this study provide information on data source selection, site location, emergency care standardization, and multi-sector collaboration for future drowning
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Functional integrity in children with anoxic brain injury from drowning.
Ishaque, Mariam; Manning, Janessa H; Woolsey, Mary D; Franklin, Crystal G; Tullis, Elizabeth W; Beckmann, Christian F; Fox, Peter T
2017-10-01
Drowning is a leading cause of accidental injury and death in young children. Anoxic brain injury (ABI) is a common consequence of drowning and can cause severe neurological morbidity in survivors. Assessment of functional status and prognostication in drowning victims can be extremely challenging, both acutely and chronically. Structural neuroimaging modalities (CT and MRI) have been of limited clinical value. Here, we tested the utility of resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) for assessing brain functional integrity in this population. Eleven children with chronic, spastic quadriplegia due to drowning-induced ABI were investigated. All were comatose immediately after the injury and gradually regained consciousness, but with varying ability to communicate their cognitive state. Eleven neurotypical children matched for age and gender formed the control group. Resting-state fMRI and co-registered T1-weighted anatomical MRI were acquired at night during drug-aided sleep. Network integrity was quantified by independent components analysis (ICA), at both group- and per-subject levels. Functional-status assessments based on in-home observations were provided by families and caregivers. Motor ICNs were grossly compromised in ABI patients both group-wise and individually, concordant with their prominent motor deficits. Striking preservations of perceptual and cognitive ICNs were observed, and the degree of network preservation correlated (ρ = 0.74) with the per-subject functional status assessments. Collectively, our findings indicate that rs-fMRI has promise for assessing brain functional integrity in ABI and, potentially, in other disorders. Furthermore, our observations suggest that the severe motor deficits observed in this population can mask relatively intact perceptual and cognitive capabilities. Hum Brain Mapp 38:4813-4831, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Near-drowning: clinical course of lung injury in adults.
Gregorakos, Leonidas; Markou, Nikolaos; Psalida, Vasiliki; Kanakaki, Maria; Alexopoulou, Anastasia; Sotiriou, Eva; Damianos, Anastasios; Myrianthefs, Pavlos
2009-01-01
Although anoxic encephalopathy is the most dreaded consequence of submersion accidents, respiratory involvement is also very common in these patients. Nevertheless, few data are available about the clinical course and resolution of lung injury in adult victims of near-drowning. Our goal was to study the clinical manifestations of near-drowning and the course of respiratory involvement in a retrospective cohort of adult, mostly elderly patients. Our study included adult patients who were hospitalized after near-drowning in seawater over an 8-year period. Forty-three patients (26 female, 17 male), with an age range of 18-88 years old, were studied. Most (79%) of the patients were elderly (>60 years). In the Emergency Department two patients were comatose and required intubation. Another patient was intubated within the first 24 h because of ARDS. At presentation, all patients but two had a PaO(2)/FiO(2) near-drowning in adult immersion victims are often severe. Nevertheless, in noncomatose patients at least, intubation can often be avoided and quick improvement is the rule while a good outcome is usually expected even in elderly patients.
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Drowning fatalities in childhood: the role of pre-existing medical conditions.
Franklin, Richard C; Pearn, John H; Peden, Amy E
2017-10-01
This study is an analysis of the contribution of pre-existing medical conditions to unintentional fatal child (0-14 years) drowning and a of critique prevention stratagems, with an exploration of issues of equity in recreation. This study is a total population, cross-sectional audit of all demographic, forensic and on-site situational details surrounding unintentional fatal drowning of children 0-14 years in Australia for the period of 1 July 2002 to 30 June 2012. Data were sourced from the National (Australia) Coronial Information System. Age-specific disease patterns in the general population were obtained from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Four hundred and sixty-eight children drowned during the study period. Fifty-three (11.3%) had a pre-existing medical condition, of whom 19 suffered from epilepsy, 13 from autism and 5 with non-specific intellectual disabilities. Epilepsy is a risk factor in childhood drowning deaths, with a prevalence of 4.1% of drowning fatalities, compared with 0.7%-1.7% among the general 0-14 years population (relative risk: 2.4-5.8). Epilepsy was deemed to be contributory in 16 of 19 cases (84.2% of epilepsy cases) with a median age of 8 years. Asthma and intellectual disabilities were under-represented in the drowning cohort. Except for epilepsy, this research has indicated that the risks of drowning while undertaking aquatic activities are not increased in children with pre-existing medical conditions. Children with pre-existing medical conditions can enjoy aquatic activities when appropriately supervised. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
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Rip current related drowning deaths and rescues in Australia 2004-2011
Brighton, B.; Sherker, S.; Brander, R.; Thompson, M.; Bradstreet, A.
2013-04-01
Rip currents are a common hazard to beachgoers found on many beaches around the world, but it has proven difficult to accurately quantify the actual number of rip current related drowning deaths in many regions and countries. Consequently, reported estimates of rip current drowning can fluctuate considerably and are often based on anecdotal evidence. This study aims to quantify the incidence of rip current related drowning deaths and rescues in Australia from 2004 to 2011. A retrospective search was undertaken for fatal and non-fatal rip-related drowning incidents from Australia's National Coronial Information System (NCIS), Surf Life Saving Australia's (SLSA, 2005-2011) SurfGuard Incident Report Database (IRD), and Media Monitors for the period 1 July 2004 to 30 June 2011. In this time, rip currents were recorded as a factor in 142 fatalities of a total of 613 coastal drowning deaths (23.2%), an average of 21 per year. Rip currents were related to 44% of all beach-related drowning deaths and were involved in 57.4% of reported major rescues in Australian locations where rips occur. A comparison with international operational statistics over the same time period describes rip-related rescues as 53.7% of the total rescues in the US, 57.9% in the UK and 49.4% in New Zealand. The range 49-58% is much lower than 80-89% traditionally cited. The results reported are likely to underestimate the size of the rip current hazard, because we are limited by the completeness of data on rip-related events; however this is the most comprehensive estimate to date. Beach safety practitioners need improved data collection and standardized definitions across organisations. The collection of drowning data using consistent categories and the routine collection of rip current information will allow for more accurate global comparisons.
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Blum, Lauren S; Khan, Rasheda; Hyder, Adnan A; Shahanaj, Sabina; El Arifeen, Shams; Baqui, Abdullah
2009-05-01
While reductions in infectious disease have resulted in impressive declines in child mortality in Bangladesh, drowning is becoming proportionately more important as a major cause of death, accounting for at least 19% of deaths of children between 1 and 4 years of age in trend analysis since 2000. Little is known about indigenous beliefs and behaviors associated with drowning, which may be critical to preventing child-related drowning deaths. Qualitative research was carried out over 13 months in Matlab, Bangladesh to describe the indigenous explanatory model of drowning and to identify behavioral factors increasing the risk for drowning deaths. Methods included cognitive mapping procedures as well as open-ended interviews with families who had lost a child or experienced a near-death due to drowning and families with at least one child under 5 years living near a body of water. Along with diarrhea, fever, and pneumonia, drowning is perceived as a leading cause of child death. Causal explanations are primarily associated with "evil spirits" believed to entice young children to water or bewitch mothers so that they forget about the child. Another primary interpretation relates to a water goddess known to prey on small children. When a young child is discovered in water, parents refrain from rescuing the child due to a belief that if a parent touches a drowning child, the child will die. After the child is removed from the water, traditional practices that have no known benefit are employed. The research identified locally constructed beliefs and practices such as refraining from touching the child that may increase the incidence of drowning deaths. Future efforts are required to address these beliefs and assess the feasibility, cultural acceptability and effectiveness of strategies designed to prevent drowning.
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Radiological appearances in the near-drowned
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reinhardt, K.
1981-01-01
Three patients who were unconscious when rescued from drowning had radiographic studies of their lungs carried out after several hours, or on the following day. The findings had to be interpreted as pulmonary oedema. The most seriously affected patient showed the picture of massive acute interstitial oedema on the second day. After initial regression, coarse shadows developed, indicating the alveolar form of pulmonary oedema. The sputum contained candida, but there was no evidence of pulmonary candidiasis. In two patients there were transient signs of limited atelectases. Two patients were re-examined after five years. There were no features which could be interpreted as a consequence of the drowning episode. The radiographic appearances showed minor changes which could be due to mild pulmonary fibrosis. (orig.) [de
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Radiological appearances in the near-drowned
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reinhardt, K.
1981-10-01
Three patients who were unconscious when rescued from drowning had radiographic studies of their lungs carried out after several hours, or on the following day. The findings had to be interpreted as pulmonary oedema. The most seriously affected patient showed the picture of massive acute interstitial oedema on the second day. After initial regression, coarse shadows developed, indicating the alveolar form of pulmonary oedema. The sputum contained candida, but there was no evidence of pulmonary candidiasis. In two patients there were transient signs of limited atelectases. Two patients were re-examined after five years. There were no features which could be interpreted as a consequence of the drowning episode. The radiographic appearances showed minor changes which could be due to mild pulmonary fibrosis.
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Davoudi-Kiakalayeh, Ali; Mohammadi, Reza; Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh
2012-01-01
Drowning is a serious but neglected health problem in low-and middle-income countries. To describe the effectiveness of drowning prevention program on the reduction of drowning mortality rates in rural settings at the north of Iran, and guide its replication elsewhere. This interventional design included pre- and post-intervention observations in the rural area of the Caspian Sea coastline without a comparison community. Cross-sectional data were collected at pre- and post-intervention phases. Outcome evaluation was based on a four-year period (March 2005-March 2009) utilizing drowning registry data for the north of Iran. The implementation program increased the rate of membership in an organization responsible for promoting safety in high risk areas near the Caspian Sea. Compared to a WHO standardized population, drowning incidence in rural areas of the study demonstrated a continuous decrease in age-specific drowning rate among the oldest victims with a gradual decline during the implementation. In the study area, the epidemiological aspects of the study population were exposed and contributing factors were highlighted. This study showed that the promotion of passive interventions had a greater effect on drowning rate than that of active interventions.
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The Pattern and Frequency of Drowning Autopsies in Benin City ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Introduction: Drowning is a form of violent asphyxia death, where in the entry of air into the lungs, is prevented by water or other fluids due to the submersion of mouth and nostril (complex submersion of whole body is not necessary). Aim and objective: To determine profile/patterns of all drowning autopsies in our ...
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Drones for Provision of Flotation Support in Simulated Drowning.
Bäckman, Anders; Hollenberg, Jacob; Svensson, Leif; Ringh, Mattias; Nordberg, Per; Djärv, Therese; Forsberg, Sune; Hernborg, Olof; Claesson, Andreas
The feasibility and potential of using drones for providing flotation devices in cases of drowning have not yet been assessed. We hypothesize that a drone carrying an inflatable life buoy is a faster way to provide flotation compared with traditional methods. The purpose of this study is to explore the feasibility and efficiency of using a drone for delivering and providing flotation support to conscious simulated drowning victims. A simulation study was performed with a simulated drowning victim 100 m from the shore. A drone (DJI Phantom 4; dji, Shenzhen, China) equipped with an inflatable life buoy of 60 N was compared with traditional surf rescue swimming for providing flotation. The primary outcome was delay (minutes:seconds). A total number of 30 rescues were performed with a median time to delivery of the floating device of 30 seconds (interquartile range [IQR] = 24-32 seconds) for the drone compared with 65 seconds (IQR = 60-77 seconds) with traditional rescue swimming (P drone had an accuracy of 100% in dropping the inflatable life buoy drones to deliver inflatable life buoys is safe and may be a faster method to provide early flotation devices to conscious drowning victims compared with rescue swimming. Copyright © 2018 Air Medical Journal Associates. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Causes of ischemic electrocardiographic changes in near drowning: A literature review.
Omar, Hesham R; Sprenker, Collin; Bosco, Gerardo; Mangar, Devanand; Camporesi, Enrico M
2015-10-01
Drowning is a main cause of accidental death among children and adolescents worldwide. Ischemic electrocardiographic (ECG) changes are often encountered in victims of near drowning. We reviewed the literature for near drowning cases reporting ischemic ECG changes to study the underlying etiology for these findings. Among the 8 cases included in the analysis, ischemic ECG changes were due to takotsubo cardiomyopathy (in elderly cases especially females); coronary artery spasm (in younger cases); or hypothermia effect on ECG; and, to a lesser extent, myocardial ischemia resulting from occlusive coronary artery disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Surfactant replacement therapy in a pediatric near-drowning case in manure.
Ugras, Meltem; Guraksin, Ozlem; Sen, Tolga Altug; Narci, Adnan; Alpay, Faruk
2012-09-01
Drowning is defined as suffocation by submersion especially in water and is a leading cause of injury-related death in children. Age groups at greatest risk are toddlers and male adolescents. It is the second most common cause of accidental death in children after road accidents. Treatment consists of resuscitation and stabilization. The use of surfactant after near-drowning in water is reported in the literature in few case reports.We report here a boy whose condition did not get better with conventional treatment, but dramatically improved after surfactant treatment after near-drowning in a fluid with manure.
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Ratermann, Kelley L; Ereshefsky, Benjamin J; Fleishaker, Elise L; Thornton, Alice C; Buch, Ketan P; Martin, Craig A
2014-09-01
To report on invasive aspergillosis infection in an immunocompetent adult after a near-drowning event, which allowed this pathogen to easily gain access to the human respiratory system and result in rapid, severe infection. A 51-year-old female developed severe pneumonia after a near-drowning accident. Two days after admission, a bronchial alveolar lavage (BAL) was performed and was positive for Aspergillus fumigatus. After a 30-day hospital course, multiple antifungals, and various routes of administration, the patient expired. Pneumonia is particularly common because of the aspiration of contaminated water. Whereas pneumococci, staphylococci, and Gram-negative bacteria are all common pathogens for this type of infection, fungi such as Aspergillus spp can also be involved and may be life threatening. Typically, these cases are reported in individuals with an immunodeficiency such as from receipt of myelosuppressive chemotherapy, bone marrow transplants, or lung transplants. Despite initiation of an appropriate empirical antifungal regimen, the rapid recovery of A fumigatus from pulmonary alveolar lavage and BAL samples as well as extremely elevated levels of galactomannan and (1→3)-β-D glucan may have indicated an invasive fungal infection (IFI). IFIs are uncommon in immunocompetent adults, but in the event of a near-drowning accident, environmental fungi can gain access to the human respiratory system and result in rapid, severe infection. Based on this case and the others described, it appears that near-drowning patients need an early initial evaluation for IFI. © The Author(s) 2014.
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Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach
Song, Hongzhi; Sadovski, Alexey; Jeffress, Gary
2013-01-01
Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical...
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Doomed to drown? Sediment dynamics in the human-controlled floodplains of the active Bengal Delta
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kimberly G. Rogers
2017-11-01
Full Text Available The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bengal Delta in Bangladesh has been described as a delta in peril of catastrophic coastal flooding because sediment deposition on delta plain surfaces is insufficient to offset rates of subsidence and sea level rise. Widespread armoring of the delta by coastal embankments meant to protect crops from flooding has limited natural floodplain deposition, and in the tidally dominated delta, dikes lead to rapid compaction and lowered land surface levels. This renders the deltaic floodplains susceptible to flooding by sea level rise and storm surges capable of breaching poorly maintained embankments. However, natural physical processes are spatially variable across the delta front and therefore the impact of dikes on sediment dispersal and morphology should reflect these variations. We present the first ever reported sedimentation rates from the densely populated and human-controlled floodplains of the central lower Bengal Delta. We combine direct sedimentation measurements and short-lived radionuclides to show that transport processes and lateral sedimentation are highly variable across the delta. Overall aggradation rates average 2.3 ± 9 cm y–1, which is more than double the estimated average rate of local sea level rise; 83% of sampled sites contained sediment tagged with detectable 7 Be, indicating flood-pulse sourced sediments are widely delivered to the delta plain, including embanked areas. A numerical model is then used to demonstrate lateral accretion patterns arising from 50 years of sedimentation delivered through smaller order channels. Dominant modes of transport are reflected in the sediment routing and aggradation across the lower delta plain, though embankments are major controls on sediment dynamics throughout the delta. This challenges the assumption that the Bengal Delta is doomed to drown; rather it signifies that effective preparation for climate change requires consideration of how infrastructure
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ADULT BASIC LIFE SUPPORT ON NEAR DROWNING AT THE SCENE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gd. Harry Kurnia Prawedana
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Indonesia is a popular tourist destination which has potential for drowning cases. Therefore, required knowledge of adult basic life support to be able to deal with such cases in the field. Basic life support in an act to maintain airway and assist breathing and circulation without the use of tools other than simple breathing aids. The most important factor that determines the outcome of drowning event is the duration and severity of hypoxia induced. The management of near drowning at the scene include the rescue of victim from the water, rescue breathing, chest compression, cleaning the vomit substances which allowing blockage of the airway, prevent loss of body heat, and transport the victim to nearest emergency department for evaluation and monitoring.
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Cerland, Laura; Mégarbane, Bruno; Kallel, Hatem; Brouste, Yanick; Mehdaoui, Hossein; Resiere, Dabor
2017-11-17
Drowning represents one major cause of accidental death. Near-drowning patients are exposed to aspiration that may result in pneumonia with life-threatening consequences. We designed this descriptive study to investigate the frequency, nature, and consequences of post-drowning pneumonia. One hundred and forty-four near-drowning patients (33 children and 111 adults) admitted during four years to the University Hospital of Martinique, French Indies, were included. Patients presented pre-hospital cardiac arrest (41%) and exhibited acute respiratory failure (54%), cardiovascular failure (27%), and lactic acidosis (75%) on admission. Empirical antibiotics, as decided by the physicians in charge, were administered in 85 patients (59%). Post-drowning early onset bacterial pneumonia was diagnosed as "possible" in 13 patients (9%) and "confirmed" in 22 patients (15%). Tracheal aspiration revealed the presence of polymorphous pharyngeal flora (59%) or one predominant bacteria species (41%) including Enterobacter aerogenes , Enterobacter cloacae , Staphylococcus aureus , Pseudomonas aeruginosa , Aeromonas hydrophilia , and Morganella morgani . Despite adequate supportive care, drowning resulted in 45 fatalities (31%). Early onset bacterial aspiration pneumonia (either possible or confirmed) did not significantly influence the risk of death. In conclusion, near-drowning-related bacterial aspiration pneumonia seems rare and does not influence the mortality rate. There is still a need for practice standardization to improve diagnosis of post-drowning pneumonia and near-drowning patient management.
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A document analysis of drowning prevention education resources in the United States.
Katchmarchi, Adam Bradley; Taliaferro, Andrea R; Kipfer, Hannah Joy
2018-03-01
There have been long-standing calls to better educate the public at large on risks of drowning; yet limited evaluation has taken place on current resources in circulation. The purpose of this qualitative research is to develop an understanding of the content in currently circulated drowning prevention resources in the United States. Data points (n = 451) consisting of specific content within 25 different drowning prevention educational resources were analyzed using document analysis methods; a grounded theory approach was employed to allow for categorical development and indexing of the data. Results revealed six emerging categories, including safety precautions (n = 152), supervision (n = 109), preventing access (n = 57), safety equipment (n = 46), emergency procedures (n = 46), and aquatic education (n = 41). Results provide an initial insight into the composition of drowning prevention resources in the United States and provide a foundation for future research.
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The social values at risk from sea-level rise
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa
2013-01-01
Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies
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The social values at risk from sea-level rise
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)
2013-07-15
Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.
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Sandi, Steven G.; Rodríguez, José F.; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo; Saco, Patricia M.
2018-04-01
Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to submergence due to sea-level rise, as shown by predictions of up to 80% of global wetland loss by the end of the century. Coastal wetlands with mixed mangrove-saltmarsh vegetation are particularly vulnerable because sea-level rise can promote mangrove encroachment on saltmarsh, reducing overall wetland biodiversity. Here we use an ecogeomorphic framework that incorporates hydrodynamic effects, mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics, and soil accretion processes to assess the effects of control structures on wetland evolution. Migration and accretion patterns of mangrove and saltmarsh are heavily dependent on topography and control structures. We find that current management practices that incorporate a fixed gate for the control of mangrove encroachment are useful initially, but soon become ineffective due to sea-level rise. Raising the gate, to counteract the effects of sea level rise and promote suitable hydrodynamic conditions, excludes mangrove and maintains saltmarsh over the entire simulation period of 100 years
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Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective
Parkinson, Randall W.
2009-07-01
Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.
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Case analyses of all children's drowning deaths occurring in Sweden 1998-2007.
Schyllander, Jan; Janson, Staffan; Nyberg, Cecilia; Eriksson, Ulla-Britt; Stark Ekman, Diana
2013-03-01
The goal of this research project was to explore circumstances surrounding each drowning death occurring to children and adolescents ages 0-17 in Sweden during the years 1998-2007. Records from the National Board of Forensic Medicine (NBFM) and other sources were analysed. We collected information on children's personal characteristics (sex, age, ethnic background, weight, height, physical condition, and pre-existing health conditions) and the circumstances of deaths (time and place of occurrence, type of drowning, resuscitation efforts and medical care given, for example). We also collected information on prevention factors: the physical environment, adult supervision, whether or not the child could swim, and if the child was using a personal flotation device at the time of death. Our analysis showed that 109 children had drowned in Sweden during the study period - of this group, 96 had died from unintentional causes. Children from immigrant backgrounds, particularly with families coming from the Middle East and Iran, were inordinately represented in the group of victims who had died from unintentional drowning deaths. Other risk factors included: coming from a single parent-headed family, alcohol use by older victims and a lack of ability to swim. Prevention efforts to prevent drowning in the future should focus on preventing alcohol use by young bathers; better fencing around swimming sites; improved coverage of swimming lessons to all children in Sweden, especially children from immigrant families; more education on drowning risks for single parents; and better awareness by adults on the need for constant supervision of children and adolescents in and near water.
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Reduced cerebral perfusion on sudden immersion in ice water: a possible cause of drowning
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mantoni, Teit; Belhage, Bo; Pedersen, Lars M
2007-01-01
Near-drowning incidents and drowning deaths after accidental immersion in open waters have been linked to cold shock response. It consists of inspiratory gasps, hyperventilation, tachycardia, and hypertension in the first 2-3 min of cold-water immersion. This study explored the immediate changes...... in cerebral blood flow velocity (Vmean) during cold-water immersion since cold shock induced hyperventilation may diminish Vmean and lead to syncope and drowning....
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Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexey Sadovski
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical approach by using factor analysis of regional sea level rates of change. Unlike physical models and semi-empirical models that attempt to approach how much and how fast sea levels are changing, this methodology allows for a discussion of the factor(s that statistically affects sea level rates of change, and seeks patterns to explain spatial correlations.
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Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections
Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.
2013-01-01
With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.
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Barrier response to Holocene sea-level rise
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pejrup, Morten; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N
Normally it is believed that sea-level rise causes coastal barrier retreat. However, sea-level is only one of the parameters determining the long term coastal development of barrier coasts. Sediment supply is an equally important determinant and may overshadow the effects of sea-level rise....... Conceptually this has been known for a long time but for the first time we can show the relative effect of these two parameters. We have studied three neighboring barrier islands in the Wadden Sea, and described their 3D morphological evolution during the last 8000 years. It appears that the barrier islands...... a much stronger component of sea-level control. The distance between the islands is only 50 km, and therefore our study shows that prediction of barrier development during a period of rising sea level may be more complicated than formerly believed....
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Davoudi-Kiakalayeh, Ali; Mohammadi, Reza; Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh
2012-01-01
Background Drowning is a serious but neglected health problem in low-and middle-income countries. Objectives To describe the effectiveness of drowning prevention program on the reduction of drowning mortality rates in rural settings at the north of Iran, and guide its replication elsewhere. Patients and Methods This interventional design included pre- and post-intervention observations in the rural area of the Caspian Sea coastline without a comparison community. Cross-sectional data were col...
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The legacy of fear: is fear impacting fatal and non-fatal drowning of African American children?
Irwin, Carol C; Irwin, Richard L; Ryan, Timothy D; Drayer, Joris
2011-01-01
African American children’s rates for fatal and non-fatal drowning events are alarmingly elevated, with some age groups having three times the rate as compared to White peers. Adequate swimming skills are considered a protective agent toward the prevention of drowning, but marginalized youth report limited swimming ability. This research examined minority children’s and parents/caregivers’ fear of drowning as a possible variable associated with limited swimming ability. Results confirmed that there were significant racial differences concerning the fear of drowning, and adolescent African American females were notably more likely to fear drowning while swimming than any other group. The “fear of drowning” responses by parents/ caregivers of minority children were also significantly different from their White counterparts.
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Pençe, Halime Hanim; Pençe, Sadrettin; Kurtul, Naciye; Yilmaz, Necat; Kocoglu, Hasan; Bakan, Ebubekir
2003-01-01
In this study, adenosine triphosphate (ATP), adenosine diphosphate (ADP), adenosine monophosphate (AMP) and lactic acid in the muscles of masseter, triceps, and quadriceps obtained from right and left sides of Spraque-Dawley rats following death were investigated. The samples were taken immediately and 120 minutes after death occurred. The rats were killed either by cervical dislocation or drowning. ATP concentrations in the muscles of masseter, triceps, and quadriceps were lower in samples obtained 120 minutes after death than in those obtained immediately after death. ADP, AMP, and lactic acid concentrations in these muscles were higher in samples obtained 120 minutes after death than those obtained immediately after death. A positive linear correlation was determined between ATP and ADP concentrations in quadriceps muscles of the rats killed with cervical dislocation and in triceps muscles of the rats killed with drowning. When rats killed with cervical dislocation and with drowning were compared, ADP, AMP, and lactic acid concentrations were lower in the former than in the latter for both times (immediately and 120 minutes after death occurred). In the case of drowning, ATP is consumed faster because of hard exercise or severe physical activity, resulting in a faster rigor mortis. Higher lactic acid levels were determined in muscles of the rats killed with drowning than the other group. In the control and electric shock rats, ATP decreased in different levels in the three different muscle types mentioned above in control group, being much decline in masseter and then in quadriceps. This may be caused by lower mass and less glycogen storage of masseter. No different ATP levels were measured in drowning group with respect to the muscle type possibly because of the severe activity of triceps and quadriceps and because of smaller mass of masseter. One can conclude that the occurrence of rigor mortis is closely related to the mode of death.
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Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John
2009-01-01
The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show...... that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1...
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Invasive aspergillosis in near drowning nonneutropenic patient.
Munta, Kartik; Gopal, Palepu B N; Vigg, Ajit
2015-12-01
Invasive aspergillosis in immunosuppressed people has been well documented, but to diagnose and treat in an immunocompetent individual after near drowning, it requires early suspicion and proper empirical treatment. We report a case diagnosed to have invasive aspergillosis with systemic dissemination of the infection to the brain, gluteal muscles, and kidneys after a fall in a chemical tank of a paper manufacturing company. He was ventilated for acute respiratory distress syndrome and managed with antibiotics and vasopressors. Due to nonresolving pneumonia and positive serum galactomannan, trans-tracheal biopsy was performed which confirmed invasive aspergillosis and was treated with antifungals. With the availability of galactomannan assay and better radiological investigative modalities, occurrence of such invasive fungal infections in cases of drowning patients should be considered early in such patients and treated with appropriate antifungals.
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Reduced cerebral perfusion on sudden immersion in ice water: a possible cause of drowning
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mantoni, Teit; Belhage, Bo; Pedersen, Lars M
2007-01-01
INTRODUCTION: Near-drowning incidents and drowning deaths after accidental immersion in open waters have been linked to cold shock response. It consists of inspiratory gasps, hyperventilation, tachycardia, and hypertension in the first 2-3 min of cold-water immersion. This study explored the imme......INTRODUCTION: Near-drowning incidents and drowning deaths after accidental immersion in open waters have been linked to cold shock response. It consists of inspiratory gasps, hyperventilation, tachycardia, and hypertension in the first 2-3 min of cold-water immersion. This study explored...... cerebral artery (MCA) was measured together with ventilatory parameters and heart rate before, during, and after immersion. RESULTS: Within seconds after immersion in ice water, heart rate increased from 74 +/- 16 to 107 +/- 18 bpm (mean +/- SD; p elevation...
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Neck and scleral hemorrhage in drowning.
Alexander, Russell T; Jentzen, Jeffrey M
2011-03-01
The determination of the cause and manner of death for a body recovered from the water can be difficult because of a lack of autopsy findings specific for drowning. This case report describes a 30-year-old man found submerged at the bottom of a hotel pool. An autopsy revealed scleral hemorrhages and fascial hemorrhages of multiple muscles of the anterior and posterior neck bilaterally. No evidence of traumatic injury was on the surface of the body. An investigation by law enforcement found no evidence of foul play. The occurrence of petechial and neck hemorrhage in a body recovered from the water is controversial, and a review of this literature will be given. We suggest that fascial hemorrhages of the muscles of the neck, as well as cephalic hemorrhages, can be explained by drowning-related elevated central venous pressure that is communicated to the head through the valveless veins of the neck. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
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Hopkins, Ramona O
2008-07-01
Cold water near-drowning is often thought to be neuroprotective in individuals with anoxia of a longer duration than that usually required to produce irreversible neurologic damage. There is a paucity of data in adults with cold water near-drowning that assess neuropsychological outcomes. Information regarding long-term effects of near cold water near-drowning on neuropathology, neuropsychological and neurobehavioral outcomes are uncommon. This paper provides an introduction to two cases of cold water near-drowning reported in this issue of JINS by Sameulson and colleagues and provides background information for interpretation of the findings of these cases in the context of outcomes following anoxia.
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ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME DAN ACUTE PNEUMONIA PADA NEAR DROWNING:SEBUAH LAPORAN KASUS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michelle Prinka Adyana
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Near drowning is a condition in which the victim survived the first 24 hours. The WorldHealth Organization (WHO , recorded worldwide in 2000 there were 400,000 incidentdrowned accidentally . That is, this figure ranks second only to traffic accidents.Aspiration pneumonia is a complication of near drwoning which occurred in 80 % ofcases of near drowning, while 50 % of patients sink into acute respiratory distresssyndrome ( ARDS . This case report discusses the acute respiratory distress syndromeand acute pneumonia in near drowning 24 years old , who had drowned at the beach for± 15 minutes , the chest x - ray obtained pulmonary edema dd / lung pnuemonia therepneuomothorax . Examination of multislice spiral computed tomography ( MSCT bilateral pneumothorax Thorax obtained major and minor fisuura right and left majorfissure , pneumomediastinum , pulmonary pneumonia contusio / suspected aspirationpneumonia , emphysema subcutis . In intensive care patients conducted for 9 days andreturn to akitivitas everyday
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Gotsmy, Walther; Lombardo, Paolo; Jackowski, Christian; Brencicova, Eva; Zech, Wolf-Dieter
2018-04-24
In forensic autopsy, the analysis of stomach contents is important when investigating drowning cases. Three-layering of stomach contents may be interpreted as a diagnostic hint to drowning due to swallowing of larger amounts of water or other drowning media. The authors experienced frequent discrepancies of numbers of stomach content layering in drowning cases between post-mortem computed tomography (PMCT) and autopsy in forensic casework. Therefore, the goal of this study was to compare layering of stomach contents in drowning cases between PMCT and forensic autopsy. Drowning cases (n = 55; 40 male, 15 female, mean age 45.3 years; mean amount of stomach content 223 ml) that received PMCT prior to forensic autopsy were retrospectively analyzed by a forensic pathologist and a radiologist. Number of layers of stomach content in PMCT were compared to number of layers at forensic autopsy. In 28 of the 55 evaluated drowning cases, a discrepancy between layering of stomach contents at autopsy compared to PMCT was observed: 1 layer at autopsy (n = 28): 50% discrepancy to PMCT, 2 layers (n = 20): 45% discrepancy, and 3 layers (n = 7): 71.4% discrepancy. Sensitivity of correctly determining layering (as observed at forensic autopsy) in PMCT was 52% (positive predictive value 44.8%). Specificity was 46.6% (negative predictive value 53.8%). In a control group (n = 35) of non-drowning cases, three-layering of stomach contents was not observed. Discrepancies of observed numbers of stomach content layers between PMCT and forensic autopsy are a frequent finding possibly due to stomach content sampling technique at autopsy and movement of the corpse prior to PMCT and autopsy. Three-layering in PMCT, if indeed present, may be interpreted as a hint to drowning.
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Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities
Nicholls, Robert J.
2017-04-01
Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical
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Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability
Rahmstorf, Stefan
2012-06-01
Projections of global sea-level rise into the future have become more pessimistic over the past five years or so. A global rise by more than one metre by the year 2100 is now widely accepted as a serious possibility if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. That is witnessed by the scientific assessments that were made since the last IPCC report was published in 2007. The Delta Commission of the Dutch government projected up to 1.10 m as a 'high-end' scenario (Vellinga et al 2009). The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) projected up to 1.40 m (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) gives a range of 0.90-1.60 m in its 2011 report (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011). And recently the US Army Corps of Engineers recommends using a 'low', an 'intermediate' and a 'high' scenario for global sea-level rise when planning civil works programmes, with the high one corresponding to a 1.50 m rise by 2100 (US Army Corps of Engineers 2011). This more pessimistic view is based on a number of observations, most importantly perhaps the fact that sea level has been rising at least 50% faster in the past decades than projected by the IPCC (Rahmstorf et al 2007, IPCC 2007). Also, the rate of rise (averaged over two decades) has accelerated threefold, from around 1 mm yr-1 at the start of the 20th century to around 3 mm yr-1 over the past 20 years (Church and White 2006), and this rate increase closely correlates with global warming (Rahmstorf et al 2011). The IPCC projections, which assume almost no further acceleration in the 20th century, thus look less plausible. And finally the observed net mass loss of the two big continental ice sheets (Van den Broeke et al 2011) calls into question the assumption that ice accumulation in Antarctica would largely balance ice loss from Greenland in the course of further global warming (IPCC 2007). With such a serious sea-level rise on the horizon
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Evaluation of a community-based drowning prevention programme in northern Islamic Republic of Iran.
Davoudi-Kiakalayeh, A; Mohammadi, R; Yousefzade-Chabok, S; Jansson, B
2013-07-01
This study evaluated the feasibility of a drowning intervention package in northern Islamic Republic of Iran. A quasi-experimental design used pre- and post-observations among residents and tourists in water-recreation beach areas of intervention and control regions by the Caspian Sea and in residents near the Caspian Sea coastline. The fatal drowning rate in the studied resident population in the provinces fell from 4.24 per 100 000 residents at baseline to 3.04 per 100,000 residents at endline. The risk of death from drowning in the intervention areas in the water-recreation area was greater during the pre-intervention (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.66-2.01) than the implementation period (OR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.15-0.37). The risk of drowning can be reduced by implementing increased supervision and raising community awareness.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohammad Jahangir Hossain
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Background: Annual global death due to drowning accounts for 372,000 lives, 90% of which occur in low and middle income countries. Life in Bangladesh exposes adults and children to may water bodies for daily household needs, and as a result drowning is common. In Bangladesh, due to lack of systemic data collection, drowning among adults is unknown; most research is focused on childhood drowning. The aim of the present study was to explore the epidemiology of adulthood drowning deaths in Bangladesh. Methodology: A nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted from January to December in 2003 among 171,366 rural and urban households, with a sample of 819,429 individuals to determine the epidemiology of adulthood drowning in Bangladesh. Results: Annual fatal drowning incidence among adults was 5.85/100,000 individuals. Of these, 71.4% were male and 28.6% were female (RR 2.39. In total, 90% of the fatalities were from rural areas. Rural populations were also found to have a 8.58 times higher risk of drowning than those in urban areas. About 95% of drowning occurred in natural water bodies. About 61.6% of the deaths occurred at the scene followed by 33.5% at the home. Of the drowning fatalities, 67% took place in water bodies within 100 meters of the household. Among the drowning fatalities 78.4% occurred in daylight between 7.00 and 18.00. Over 97% of the victims were from poor socio economic conditions with a monthly income tk. 6,000 ($94 or less. Only 25.5% of incidences were reported to the police station. Conclusions: Every year a significant number of adults die due to drowning in Bangladesh. Populations living in rural areas, especially men, were the main victims of drowning. This survey finding might help policy makers and scientists to understand the drowning scenario among adults in Bangladesh.
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Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Unnikrishnan, A.S.
correction in the estimation of trends obtained for tide gauge records. The altimeter data permits to prepare spatial maps of sea-level rise trends. We present a map prepared for the Indian Ocean (Figure 4) north of 10oS , which shows a fairly uniform... drawn information from research papers published by the author and report of the IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 13: Sea Level Changes, in which the author has served as a ‘Lead Author’. Figure1 is prepared using data from the University of Colorado. Nerem, R...
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Tintelnot, K.; Wagner, N.; Seibold, M.; de Hoog, G.S.; Horre, R.
2008-01-01
Fungal infections caused by the members of the genera Pseudallescheria and/or Scedosporium are important complications in patients after near-drowning. As the taxonomy of Pseudallescheria and Scedosporium has been revised, clinical isolates from 11 patients, after near-drowning, previously
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Tintelnot, K.; Wagner, N.; Seibold, M.; de Hoog, G.S.; Horré, R.
2008-01-01
Fungal infections caused by the members of the genera Pseudallescheria and/or Scedosporium are important complications in patients after near-drowning. As the taxonomy of Pseudallescheria and Scedosporium has been revised, clinical isolates from 11 patients, after near-drowning, previously
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Wallis, Belinda A.; Watt, Kerrianne; Franklin, Richard C.; Nixon, James W.; Kimble, Roy M.
2015-01-01
Objective To redress the lack of Queensland population incidence mortality and morbidity data associated with drowning in those aged 0-19yrs, and to understand survival and patient care. Design, Setting and Participants Retrospective population-based study used data linkage to capture both fatal and non-fatal drowning cases (N = 1299) among children aged 0-19years in Queensland, from 2002-2008 inclusive. Patient data were accessed from pre-hospital, emergency department, hospital admission and death data, and linked manually to collate data across the continuum of care. Main Outcome Measures Incidence rates were calculated separately by age group and gender for events resulting in death, hospital admission, and non-admission. Trends over time were analysed. Results Drowning death to survival ratio was 1:10, and two out of three of those who survived were admitted to hospital. Incidence rates for fatal and non-fatal drowning increased over time, primarily due to an increase in non-fatal drowning. There were non-significant reductions in fatal and admission rates. Rates for non-fatal drowning that did not result in hospitalisation more than doubled over the seven years. Children aged 5-9yrs and 10-14yrs incurred the lowest incidence rates 6.38 and 4.62 (expressed as per 100,000), and the highest rates were among children aged 0-4yrs (all drowning events 43.90; fatal 4.04; non-fatal 39.85–comprising admission 26.69 and non-admission 13.16). Males were over-represented in all age groups except 10-14yrs. Total male drowning events increased 44% over the seven years (P<0.001). Conclusion This state-wide data collection has revealed previously unknown incidence and survival ratios. Increased trends in drowning survival rates may be viewed as both positive and challenging for drowning prevention and the health system. Males are over-represented, and although infants and toddlers did not have increased fatality rates, they had the greatest drowning burden demonstrating
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Quach, N.; Huang, T.; Boening, C.; Gill, K. M.
2016-12-01
Research related to sea level rise crosses multiple disciplines from sea ice to land hydrology. The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (SLCP) is a one-stop source for current sea level change information and data, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. The architecture behind the SLCP makes it possible to integrate web content and data relevant to sea level change that are archived across various data centers as well as new data generated by sea level change principal investigators. The Extensible Data Gateway Environment (EDGE) is incorporated into the SLCP architecture to provide a unified platform for web content and science data discovery. EDGE is a data integration platform designed to facilitate high-performance geospatial data discovery and access with the ability to support multi-metadata standard specifications. EDGE has the capability to retrieve data from one or more sources and package the resulting sets into a single response to the requestor. With this unified endpoint, the Data Analysis Tool that is available on the SLCP can retrieve dataset and granule level metadata as well as perform geospatial search on the data. This talk focuses on the architecture that makes it possible to seamlessly integrate and enable discovery of disparate data relevant to sea level rise.
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The rise of sea level. To understand and to anticipate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2013-03-01
By proposing and briefly commenting graphs and drawings, this publication propose brief presentations of the main issues related to sea level rise: global warming and climate disturbance, description of the phenomenon of sea level rise (difference between sea ice and ground ice, melting of glaciers), increase of sea level rise during the twentieth century, territories at risk (examples of Greenland, Tuvalu, Shanghai), acceleration of ice melting during the twenty first century with many coastal areas at risk, already noticed and possible future impacts in France (glaciers runoff, threatened coasts, example of the Xynthia tempest), how to be united and to anticipate (a threat for millions of people, adaptation to sea level rise, limitation of global warming to limit sea level rise)
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Sansiritaweesook, Getsara; Muangsom, Niramon; Kanato, Manop; Ratanasiri, Amornrat
2015-03-01
This study had a 2-group pre-post quasiexperimental design and was conducted in 2 selected areas of Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand. The objective was to evaluate the extent to which the surveillance system that was developed helped in drowning prevention. The development process involved extensive participation from the community. System efficiency was evaluated, and the drowning rates were compared. The system demonstrated 82.8% system sensitivity and 87% positive-predictive value. There were 90.0% rescues with no injury during the study period. The relative risk of drowning injury suggests that the control area was at 5.6 times more at risk for drowning injury than the intervention area (95% CI = 1.58, 20.12). Local knowledge and participation from the community were found to be key issues in the success of the surveillance system, and such systems can be applied to other areas with similar problems. © 2013 APJPH.
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Present-day sea level rise: a synthesis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cazenave, A.; Llovel, W.; Lombard, A.
2008-01-01
Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes have improved considerably in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing data sets have become available. Here we report on the current knowledge of present-day sea level change. We briefly present observational results on sea level change from satellite altimetry since 1993 and tide gauges for the past century. We next discuss recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on time scales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion, land ice mass loss and land water storage change. For the 1993-2003 decade, the sum of climate-related contributions agree well (within the error bars) with the altimetry-based sea level, half of the observed rate of rise being due to ocean thermal expansion, land ice plus land waters explaining the other half. Since about 2003, thermal expansion increase has stopped, whereas the sea level continues to rise, although at a reduced rate compared to the previous decade (2.5 mm/yr versus 3.1 mm/yr). Recent increases in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets appear able to account alone for the rise in sea level reported over the last five years. (authors)
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Jenks, Jeffrey D; Preziosi, Michael
2015-09-01
Near-drowning, a relatively common event, is often complicated by subsequent pneumonia. While endogenous and exogenous bacteria are typical pathogens, rarely fungi are as well. We report a complicated case of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis in a 30-year-old man after a near-drowning event. We also review the medical literature for similar cases. All cases of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis after near-drowning reported in the literature involve Aspergillus fumigatus . The majority of cases involved submersion in stagnant water after a motor vehicle accident (MVA). Treatment varied considerably, with amphotericin B used in the majority of cases. Morbidity was considerable with prolonged hospitalization occurring in every case, and mortality occurring in fifty percent of the reported cases. Although a rare complication of near-drowning, invasive pulmonary aspergillosis can occur and lead to significant morbidity and mortality. After near-drowning A. fumigatus isolated from the respiratory tract should be assumed to be a true pathogen and treated accordingly.
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Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C.
Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P; Riva, Riccardo E M; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C
2016-11-22
Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This "2 °C" threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.
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Groneberg, David A; Schilling, Ute; Scutaru, Cristian; Uibel, Stefanie; Zitnik, Simona; Mueller, Daniel; Klingelhoefer, Doris; Kloft, Beatrix
2011-10-14
Drowning is a constant global problem which claims approximately half a million victims worldwide each year, whereas the number of near-drowning victims is considerably higher. Public health strategies to reduce the burden of death are still limited. While research activities in the subject drowning grow constantly, yet there is no scientometric evaluation of the existing literature at the present time. The current study uses classical bibliometric tools and visualizing techniques such as density equalizing mapping to analyse and evaluate the scientific research in the field of drowning. The interpretation of the achieved results is also implemented in the context of the data collection of the WHO. All studies related to drowning and listed in the ISI-Web of Science database since 1900 were identified using the search term "drowning". Implementing bibliometric methods, a constant increase in quantitative markers such as number of publications per state, publication language or collaborations as well as qualitative markers such as citations were observed for research in the field of drowning. The combination with density equalizing mapping exposed different global patterns for research productivity and the total number of drowning deaths and drowning rates respectively. Chart techniques were used to illustrate bi- and multilateral research cooperation. The present study provides the first scientometric approach that visualizes research activity on the subject of drowning. It can be assumed that the scientific approach to this topic will achieve even greater dimensions because of its continuing actuality.
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2011-01-01
Background Drowning is a constant global problem which claims approximately half a million victims worldwide each year, whereas the number of near-drowning victims is considerably higher. Public health strategies to reduce the burden of death are still limited. While research activities in the subject drowning grow constantly, yet there is no scientometric evaluation of the existing literature at the present time. Methods The current study uses classical bibliometric tools and visualizing techniques such as density equalizing mapping to analyse and evaluate the scientific research in the field of drowning. The interpretation of the achieved results is also implemented in the context of the data collection of the WHO. Results All studies related to drowning and listed in the ISI-Web of Science database since 1900 were identified using the search term "drowning". Implementing bibliometric methods, a constant increase in quantitative markers such as number of publications per state, publication language or collaborations as well as qualitative markers such as citations were observed for research in the field of drowning. The combination with density equalizing mapping exposed different global patterns for research productivity and the total number of drowning deaths and drowning rates respectively. Chart techniques were used to illustrate bi- and multilateral research cooperation. Conclusions The present study provides the first scientometric approach that visualizes research activity on the subject of drowning. It can be assumed that the scientific approach to this topic will achieve even greater dimensions because of its continuing actuality. PMID:21999813
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Lawson, Becki; Duff, J. Paul; Beckmann, Katie M.; Chantrey, Julian; Peck, Kirsi M.; Irvine, Richard M.; Robinson, Robert A.; Cunningham, Andrew A.
2015-01-01
Drowning is infrequently reported as a cause of death of wild birds and such incidents typically involve individual, rather than multiple, birds. Over a 21-year period (1993 to 2013 inclusive), we investigated 12 incidents of mortality of multiple (2 − 80+) Common starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) in Great Britain that appeared to be due to drowning. More than ten birds were affected in ten of these reported incidents. These incidents always occurred during the spring and early summer months and usually involved juvenile birds. In all cases, circumstantial evidence and post-mortem examinations indicated drowning to be the most likely cause of death with no underlying disease found. A behavioural explanation seems likely, possibly related to the gregarious nature of this species combined with juvenile inexperience in identifying water hazards. A review of data from the ringed bird recovery scheme across Great Britain (1909–2013 inclusive) of both starlings and Common blackbirds (Turdus merula), also a common garden visitor, identified additional suspected drowning incidents, which were significantly more common in the former species, supporting a species predisposition to drowning. For each species there was a marked seasonal peak from April to August. Drowning should be included as a differential diagnosis when investigating incidents of multiple starling mortality, especially of juveniles. PMID:26601771
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Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Singapore Strait
Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung
2013-04-01
Sea level in Singapore Strait is governed by various scale phenomena, from global to local. Global signals are dominated by the climate change and multi-decadal variability and associated sea level rise; at regional scale seasonal sea level variability is caused by ENSO-modulated monsoons; locally, astronomic tides are the strongest force. Tide gauge records in Singapore Strait are analyzed to derive local sea level trend, and attempts are made to attribute observed sea level variability to phenomena at various scales, from global to local. It is found that at annual scale, sea level anomalies in Singapore Strait are quasi-periodic, of the order of ±15 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are related to La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±9 cm. At multi-decadal scale, sea level in Singapore Strait has been rising at the rate 1.2-1.9 mm/year for the period 1975-2009, 2.0±0.3 mm/year for 1984-2009, and 1.3-4.7 mm/year for 1993-2009. When compared with the respective global trends of 2.0±0.3, 2.4, and 2.8±0.8 mm/year, Singapore Strait sea level rise trend was weaker at the earlier period and stronger at the recent decade.
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Rising sea levels and small island states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leatherman, S.P.
1994-01-01
A review is given of the problems small island nations face with respect to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many small island nations are very vulnerable to sea level rise. Particularly at risk are coral reef atolls, which are generally quite small, lie within three metres of current sea levels, and have no land at higher elevations to relocate populations and economic activity. Volcanic islands in the Pacific have high ground, but it is largely rugged, high relief and soil-poor. The most vulnerable islands are those that consist entirely of atolls and reef islands, such as Kirabai, Maldives, Tokelau and Tuvalu. Small island states, which by themselves have little power or influence in world affairs, have banded together to form the Strategic Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). This alliance had grown to include 42 states by the time of the 1992 U.N. Earth Summit. Although the greenhouse effect is mainly caused by industrial nations, developing countries will suffer the most from it. Choices of response strategy will depend on environmental, economic and social factors. Most small island nations do not have the resources to fight sea level rise in the way that the Dutch have. Retreat can occur as a gradual process or as catastrophic abandonment. Prohibiting construction close to the water's edge is a good approach. Sea level histories for each island state should be compiled and updated, island geomorphology and settlement patterns should be surveyed to determine risk areas, storm regimes should be determined, and information on coastal impacts of sea level rise should be disseminated to the public
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Pneumomediastinum and bilateral pneumothorax following near drowning in shallow water
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Santhiya Govindaraj
2011-10-01
Full Text Available We report pneumomediastinum, bilateral pneumothorax and acute respiratory distress syndrome in a victim of near drowning who was intoxicated and did not have thoracic or neck trauma. Chest radiograph revealed the above findings, later confirmed by computed tomography. He was in shock and also had gastrointestinal (GI bleeding and renal dysfunction. With adequate resuscitative measures including fluids, blood transfusions, intercostal tube drainage and mechanical ventilation he made a complete recovery. Good prognostic indicators in near drowning patients include higher Glasgow Coma Scale, short submersion time and quick resuscitative measures even in the presence of serious cardiorespiratory or hemodynamic compromise.
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Pneumomediastinum and bilateral pneumothorax following near drowning in shallow water
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stalin Viswanathan
2011-09-01
Full Text Available We report pneumomediastinum, bilateral pneumothorax and acute respiratory distress syndrome in a victim of near drowning who was intoxicated and did not have thoracic or neck trauma. Chest radiograph revealed the above findings, later confirmed by computed tomography. He was in shock and also had gastrointestinal (GI bleeding and renal dysfunction. With adequate resuscitative measures including fluids, blood transfusions, intercostal tube drainage and mechanical ventilation he made a complete recovery. Good prognostic indicators in near drowning patients include higher Glasgow Coma Scale, short submersion time and quick resuscitative measures even in the presence of serious cardiorespiratory or hemodynamic compromise.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Groneberg David A
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Drowning is a constant global problem which claims approximately half a million victims worldwide each year, whereas the number of near-drowning victims is considerably higher. Public health strategies to reduce the burden of death are still limited. While research activities in the subject drowning grow constantly, yet there is no scientometric evaluation of the existing literature at the present time. Methods The current study uses classical bibliometric tools and visualizing techniques such as density equalizing mapping to analyse and evaluate the scientific research in the field of drowning. The interpretation of the achieved results is also implemented in the context of the data collection of the WHO. Results All studies related to drowning and listed in the ISI-Web of Science database since 1900 were identified using the search term "drowning". Implementing bibliometric methods, a constant increase in quantitative markers such as number of publications per state, publication language or collaborations as well as qualitative markers such as citations were observed for research in the field of drowning. The combination with density equalizing mapping exposed different global patterns for research productivity and the total number of drowning deaths and drowning rates respectively. Chart techniques were used to illustrate bi- and multilateral research cooperation. Conclusions The present study provides the first scientometric approach that visualizes research activity on the subject of drowning. It can be assumed that the scientific approach to this topic will achieve even greater dimensions because of its continuing actuality.
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Sea level rise : A literature survey
Oude Essink, G.H.P.
1992-01-01
In order to assess the impact of sea level rise on Water Management, it is useful to understand the mechanisrns that determine the level of the sea. In this study, a literature survey is executed to analyze these mechanisms. Climate plays a centra! role in these mechanisms, Climate mainly changes
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Assessment of pediatric near-drowning victims: is there a role for cranial CT?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Romano, C.; Brown, T.; Frewen, T.C.
1993-01-01
Previous studies have suggested that CT examinations of the brain in children soon after near-drowning incidents are not helpful in predicting clinical outcome and are not necessary. The clinical and CT findings of 19 pediatric near-drowning victims were reviewed for correlation with clinical and neurologic outcome. As expected, a normal initial CT scan was poorly predictive of outcome, whereas an abnormal CT scan in the initial 36 h following an immersion incident was associated with a dismal prognosis. Three children with abnormal initial CT examinations were identified and all died within 3 days of admission. A CT scan performed in the immediate near-drowning period, therefore, may be helpful in identifying some patients who have sustained severe neurologic injury. (orig.)
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Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary
Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.
2016-02-01
Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021
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Bonatti, Hugo; Sifri, Costi; Sawyer, Robert G
2012-04-01
Plesiomonas shigelloides is a freshwater, non-fermentative gram-negative bacillus associated with diarrheal disease. Rare cases of invasive infection in human beings usually involve immunosuppressed individuals. We report a patient who underwent successful liver transplantation (LT) using a graft from a 14-year-old boy who had drowned in a freshwater lake. PUBMED was searched for both reported drowning victims with sepsis and outcomes of LT using organs from infected donors. Our patient received prophylactic piperacillin-tazobactam, which was switched to cefepime one day after transplantation when gram-negative bacteria grew in blood cultures of the donor. The next day, the organism was identified as P. shigelloides resistant to third- and fourth-generation cephalosporins; ciprofloxacin was given for seven days, and surveillance cultures remained negative. After an uneventful course the patient was discharged on day 10 after LT without signs of infection and is alive with a well-functioning graft. Literature review revealed one case of P. shigelloides in a potential allograft, in which the organism was isolated from heart valves of a drowning victim; the organs were discarded. Reports of freshwater drowning show that bacteremia is universally found post-mortem. Isolated pathogens correspond to specimens from the drowning site, with Aeromonas spp. being the most common and many other microorganisms described anecdotally. Livers from infected donors have been used, in most cases with good results if the recipient and, when possible, donor were treated appropriately; however, cases of fatal pathogen transmission have been reported. This is the first reported case of a LT using a graft from a donor with P. shigelloides sepsis. Drowning victims should be considered potentially infected with rare pathogens and therefore represent extended-criteria donors.
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Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda
2016-01-01
Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648
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Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.
Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda
2016-03-08
Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.
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Francisella novicida bacteremia after a near-drowning accident.
Brett, Meghan; Doppalapudi, Avanthi; Respicio-Kingry, Laurel B; Myers, Debra; Husband, Brigitte; Pollard, Kerry; Mead, Paul; Petersen, Jeannine M; Whitener, Cynthia J
2012-08-01
We describe a rare case of Francisella novicida bacteremia following a near-drowning event in seawater. We highlight the challenges associated with laboratory identification of F. novicida and differences in the epidemiology of F. novicida and Francisella tularensis infections.
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Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California
Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.
2008-12-01
Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise
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Recovery from near drowning and postanoxic status epilepticus with controlled hypothermia.
de Pont, A C J M; de Jager, C P C; van den Bergh, W M; Schultz, M J
2011-04-01
A diver was resuscitated after cardiac arrest due to near drowning and was hypothermic on hospital arrival. During rewarming, status epilepticus occurred, previously identified as a predictor of poor outcome. The seizures responded well to treatment with antiepileptic drugs and controlled hypothermia. After six weeks, the patient had completely recovered. This case supports the hypothesis that hypothermia offers neuroprotection, even in the presence of status epilepticus. We recommend that near-drowning victims who are comatose after resuscitation for cardiac arrest be treated with controlled mild hypothermia for 12 to 24 hours.
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Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast
Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.
2013-12-01
Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future
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An elusive diagnosis: Scedosporium apiospermum infection after near-drowning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gopinath Malini
2010-01-01
Full Text Available A 51-year-old male was admitted in our institute following an episode of near-drowning. He later developed ventriculitis and cerebral ring-enhancing lesions. He died following a subarachnoid hemorrhage due to rupture of a mycotic aneurysm involving the right fetal posterior cerebral artery. Scedosporium apiospermum was isolated from the cerebrospinal fluid. Central nervous system invasion by S apiospermum may present insidiously in near-drowning patients and, therefore, requires a high index of suspicion. In cases with the characteristic cerebral ring-enhancing lesions and concomitant ventriculitis, treatment should be instituted while awaiting fungal culture. With this article we intend to alert neurologists, intensivists, and physicians to this near fatal infection, as early identification and prompt treatment with voriconazole may be life saving.
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Risks of drowning and safety concerns at the beaches of Karachi--perspective from lifeguards.
Shaikh, Masood Ali
2014-05-01
Going to beaches is a popular pastime for many people in Karachi. Lifeguards have been deployed on many beaches for the safety and protection of beachgoers. This cross-sectional survey was conducted to study the opinions and experiences of lifeguards posted at eight beaches of Karachi. Ignorance among beachgoers about how dangerous it could be at seaside, was reported by 19 (61.3%) out of 31 lifeguards interviewed. Lifeguards had to put up with verbal and physical abuse while discharging their duties, with verbal abuse being the universal experience. Improved record keeping of drowning and near-drowning data would help make better evidence-informed beach-safety decisions in Karachi for reducing the morbidity and mortality burden owing to drowning.
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Dandona, Rakhi; Kumar, G Anil; George, Sibin; Kumar, Amit; Dandona, Lalit
2018-05-19
We report on incidence of drowning deaths and related contextual factors in children from a population-based study in the Indian state of Bihar which estimated the causes of death using verbal autopsy (VA). Interviews were conducted for deaths in 1-14 years population that occurred from January 2012 to March 2014 in 109 689 households (87.1% participation) in 1017 clusters representative of the state. The Population Health Metrics Research Consortium shortened VA questionnaire was used for interview and cause of death was assigned using the SmartVA automated algorithm. The annualised unintentional drowning death incidence, activity prior to drowning, the body of water where drowning death had occurred and contextual information are reported. The survey covered 224 077 children aged 1-14 years. Drowning deaths accounted for 7.2%, 12.5% and 5.8% of all deaths in 1-4, 5-9 and 10-14 years age groups, respectively. The adjusted incidence of drowning deaths was 14.3 (95% CI 14.0 to 14.7) per 100 000 children, with it being higher in urban (16.1, 95% CI 14.8 to 17.3) areas. Nearly half of the children drowned in a river (5.9, 95% CI 5.6 to 6.1) followed by in a pond (2.8, 95% CI 2.6 to 2.9). Drowning death incidence was the highest while playing (5.1, 95% CI 4.9 to 5.4) and bathing (4.0, 95% CI 3.8 to 4.2) with the former accounting for more deaths in 1-4 years age group. Sixty per cent of children were already dead when found. None of these deaths were reported to the civil registration system to obtain death certificate. The findings from this large representative sample of children document the magnitude of and variations in unintentional drowning deaths in Bihar. Urgent targeted drowning interventions are needed to address the risk in children. Gross under-reporting of drowning deaths in children in India needs attention. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No
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Protect the Ones You Love From Drowning
Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts
2008-12-10
This podcast, developed as part of the Protect the Ones You Love initiative, discusses steps parents can take to help protect their children from drowning, one of the leading causes of child injury. Created: 12/10/2008 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC). Date Released: 12/10/2008.
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Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise
Crosby, Sarah C.; Sax, Dov F.; Palmer, Megan E.; Booth, Harriet S.; Deegan, Linda A.; Bertness, Mark D.; Leslie, Heather M.
2016-11-01
Salt marshes buffer coastlines and provide critical ecosystem services from storm protection to food provision. Worldwide, these ecosystems are in danger of disappearing if they cannot increase elevation at rates that match sea-level rise. However, the magnitude of loss to be expected is not known. A synthesis of existing records of salt marsh elevation change was conducted in order to consider the likelihood of their future persistence. This analysis indicates that many salt marshes did not keep pace with sea-level rise in the past century and kept pace even less well over the past two decades. Salt marshes experiencing higher local sea-level rise rates were less likely to be keeping pace. These results suggest that sea-level rise will overwhelm most salt marshes' capacity to maintain elevation. Under the most optimistic IPCC emissions pathway, 60% of the salt marshes studied will be gaining elevation at a rate insufficient to keep pace with sea-level rise by 2100. Without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions this potential loss could exceed 90%, which will have substantial ecological, economic, and human health consequences.
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Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise
EPA supports the development and maintenance of water utility infrastructure across the country. Included in this effort is helping the nation’s water utilities anticipate, plan for, and adapt to risks from flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge.
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Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management
Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.
2017-12-01
For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.
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Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and coastal drainage systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Titus, J G; Kuo, C Y; Gibbs, M J; LaRoche, T B; Webb, M K; Waddell, J O
1987-01-01
Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to warm the earth several degrees in the next century, which would raise sea level a few feet and alter precipitation patterns. Both of these changes would have major impacts on the operation of coastal drainage systems. However, because sea level rise and climate change resulting from the greenhouse effect are still uncertain, most planners and engineers are ignoring the potential implications. Case studies of the potential impact on watersheds in Charleston, South Carolina, and Fort Walton Beach, Florida, suggest that the cost of designing a new system to accommodate a rise in sea level will sometimes be small compared with the retrofit cost that may ultimately be necessary if new systems are not designed for a rise. Rather than ignore the greenhouse effect until its consequences are firmly established, engineers and planners should evaluate whether it would be worthwhile to insure that new systems are not vulnerable to the risks of climate change and sea level rise.
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Chest radiographs of near-drowned children
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wunderlich, P.; Rupprecht, E.; Burkhardt, J.; Trefftz, F.; Thomsen, H.
1985-01-01
From 1972 through 1983 there were 10 near-drowned children (7 boys and 3 girls) aged 1 to 4 years, treated as inpatients at the Children's Hospital of the Medical Academy Dresden. Three of them showed a severe aspiration pneumonia which in one case was complicated by bilateral pneumothoraces. In a further five children there were radiological signs of pulmonary oedema. Only in two children were the X-ray pictures of the chest normal. (orig.)
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Drowning and near-drowning: experience of a university hospital in the Black Sea region.
Güzel, Ahmet; Duran, Latif; Paksu, Sule; Akdemir, Hızır Ufuk; Paksu, Muhammet Şükrü; Katı, Celal; Başol, Nurşah; Yılman, Metehan; Özsevik, Sevinç Nursev; Murat, Naci
2013-01-01
The aim of the study was to describe the characteristics of patients who applied to the Emergency Department (ED) due to submersion injury; to recognize the risk factors, complications, causes of death, and the educational needs of families and caregivers about unsafe environments for submersion; and to develop preventive strategies. All patients were analyzed retrospectively according to demographic features, clinical and laboratory findings, association between clinical variables and submersion injuries, and patient outcomes. Fifty-five patients with submersion injury were analyzed. The mean age of patients was 10.9 ± 4.7 years. The most common Szpilman clinical scores were Grade 1 (24 patients, 43.8%), Grade 2 (15 patients, 27.3%), and Grade 5 (10 patients, 18.2%). The common location of the submersion injuries included the sea (74.5%), pool (18.4%), bathtub (7.3%), river (3.6%), and lake (3.6%). A limited swimming ability or exhaustion and suffocation (49.1%) due to unknown reasons were the most common causes of submersion injury among all patients. Most complications were due to aspiration pneumonia and hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE). Thirty-nine patients (70.9%) were followed in the ED, while 16 patients (29.1%) were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU); 11 patients (20.0%) died. All of the risk factors of drowning should be taken into account when designing preventive measures and family education. In addition, all pediatricians should be trained periodically about the complications of submersion and the treatment strategies, particularly in coastal cities and areas where drownings occur frequently.
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Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bittermann, Klaus; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Perrette, Mahé; Vermeer, Martin
2013-01-01
The prediction of global sea-level rise is one of the major challenges of climate science. While process-based models are still being improved to capture the complexity of the processes involved, semi-empirical models, exploiting the observed connection between global-mean sea level and global temperature and calibrated with data, have been developed as a complementary approach. Here we investigate whether twentieth century sea-level rise could have been predicted with such models given a knowledge of twentieth century global temperature increase. We find that either proxy or early tide gauge data do not hold enough information to constrain the model parameters well. However, in combination, the use of proxy and tide gauge sea-level data up to 1900 AD allows a good prediction of twentieth century sea-level rise, despite this rise being well outside the rates experienced in previous centuries during the calibration period of the model. The 90% confidence range for the linear twentieth century rise predicted by the semi-empirical model is 13–30 cm, whereas the observed interval (using two tide gauge data sets) is 14–26 cm. (letter)
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[Value of specific 16S rDNA fragment of algae in diagnosis of drowning: an experiment with rabbits].
Li, Peng; Xu, Qu-Yi; Chen, Ling; Liu, Chao; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Yu-Zhong; Yu, Zheng-Liang; Hu, Sun-Lin; Wang, Hui-Jun
2015-08-01
To establish a method for amplifying specific 16S rDNA fragment of algae related with drowning and test its value in drowning diagnosis. Thirty-five rabbits were randomly divided into 3 the drowning group (n=15), postmortem water immersion group (n=15, subjected to air embolism before seawater immersion), and control group(n=5, with air embolism only). Twenty samples of the liver tissues from human corpses found in water were also used, including 14 diatom-positive and 6 diatom-negative samples identified by microwave digestion-vacuum filtration-automated scanning electron microscopy (MD-VF-Auto SEM). Seven known species of algae served as the control algae (Melosira sp, Nitzschia sp, Synedra sp, Navicula sp, Microcystis sp, Cyclotella meneghiniana, and Chlorella sp). The total DNA was extracted from the tissues and algae to amplify the specific fragment of algae followed by 8% polyacrylamide gelelectrophoresis and sliver-staining. In the drowning group, algae was detected in the lungs (100%), liver (86%), and kidney (86%); algae was detected in the lungs in 2 rabbits in the postmortem group (13%) and none in the control group. The positivity rates of algae were significantly higher in the drowning group than in the postmortem group (Palgae, including sample that had been identified as diatom-negative by MD-VF-Auto SEM. All the 7 control algae samples yielded positive results in PCR. The PCR-based method has a high sensitivity in algae detection for drowning diagnosis and allows simultaneous detection of multiple algae species related with drowning.
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Denehy, Mel; Crawford, Gemma; Leavy, Justine; Nimmo, Lauren; Jancey, Jonine
2016-05-20
Worldwide, children under the age of 5 years are at particular risk of drowning. Responding to this need requires the development of evidence-informed drowning prevention strategies. Historically, drowning prevention strategies have included denying access, learning survival skills and providing supervision, as well as education and information which includes the use of mass media. Interventions underpinned by behavioural theory and formative evaluation tend to be more effective, yet few practical examples exist in the drowning and/or injury prevention literature. The Health Belief Model and Social Cognitive Theory will be used to explore participants' perspectives regarding proposed mass media messaging. This paper describes a qualitative protocol to undertake formative research to develop theory-based messages for a child drowning prevention campaign. The primary data source will be focus group interviews with parents and caregivers of children under 5 years of age in metropolitan and regional Western Australia. Qualitative content analysis will be used to analyse the data. This study will contribute to the drowning prevention literature to inform the development of future child drowning prevention mass media campaigns. Findings from the study will be disseminated to practitioners, policymakers and researchers via international conferences, peer and non-peer-reviewed journals and evidence summaries. The study was submitted and approved by the Curtin University Human Research Ethics Committee. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
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Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society
MIMURA, Nobuo
2013-01-01
Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609
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PERSPECTIVE: The tripping points of sea level rise
Hecht, Alan D.
2009-12-01
When President Nixon created the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 he said the environment must be perceived as a single, interrelated system. We are nowhere close to achieving this vision. Jim Titus and his colleagues [1] highlight one example of where one set of regulations or permits may be in conflict with another and where regulations were crafted in the absence of understanding the cumulative impact of global warming. The issue here is how to deal with the impacts of climate change on sea level and the latter's impact on wetland polices, clean water regulations, and ecosystem services. The Titus paper could also be called `The tripping points of sea level rise'. Titus and his colleagues have looked at the impact of such sea level rise on the east coast of the United States. Adaptive responses include costly large- scale investment in shore protection (e.g. dikes, sand replenishment) and/or ecosystem migration (retreat), where coastal ecosystems move inland. Shore protection is limited by available funds, while ecosystem migrations are limited by available land use. The driving factor is the high probability of sea level rise due to climate change. Estimating sea level rise is difficult because of local land and coastal dynamics including rising or falling land areas. It is estimated that sea level could rise between 8 inches and 2 feet by the end of this century [2]. The extensive data analysis done by Titus et al of current land use is important because, as they observe, `property owners and land use agencies have generally not decided how they will respond to sea level rise, nor have they prepared maps delineating where shore protection and retreat are likely'. This is the first of two `tripping points', namely the need for adaptive planning for a pending environmental challenge that will create economic and environment conflict among land owners, federal and state agencies, and businesses. One way to address this gap in adaptive management
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Did he drown or was he murdered?
Lau, Gilbert
2002-04-01
An unemployed, 60-year-old Singaporean gentleman died during a brief overseas trip to another South-East Asian country. He had, presumably, drowned in the bathtub of his hotel room, which he shared with his then 44-year-old companion, who was supposedly his nephew. The relevant public health and medico-legal authorities of the host country conducted an external examination of the body at the scene, whereupon they agreed with the police that his death was probably due to accidental drowning following an episode of syncope. It would appear that this verdict was based almost entirely on circumstantial and hearsay evidence. No autopsy was performed. In its place, considerable reliance was placed on the observation that abdominal compression resulted in the outflow of a small amount of water from the mouth, as being proof of drowning. A few days later, the body was cremated in the host country and the remains (ashes) were subsequently repatriated to Singapore. It later transpired that, shortly before they embarked on the ill-fated trip, the deceased's 'nephew' had purchased, on the former's behalf, travel insurance policies (covering accidental injury and death) amounting to a total of S$800,000 from five different insurance companies, as well as a separate life policy for a further S$100,000, most of which had been issued within the fortnight prior to their departure. Interestingly, the beneficiary (later the plaintiff in the ensuing civil trial some three years later) of all of these policies, was the ex-wife of the deceased's 'nephew', with whom he had, in fact, continued to live although they were officially divorced several years ago. Whilst the claim against the life policy had been settled, the first five insurers declined to issue payment on grounds of suspicion that the deceased had been the victim of a homicide, planned or executed by the 'nephew', wherein the beneficiary was a conspirator of sorts. The author was approached by defence counsel (representing
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Sea level hazards: Altimetric monitoring of tsunamis and sea level rise
Hamlington, Benjamin Dillon
Whether on the short timescale of an impending tsunami or the much longer timescale of climate change-driven sea level rise, the threat stemming from rising and inundating ocean waters is a great concern to coastal populations. Timely and accurate observations of potentially dangerous changes in sea level are vital in determining the precautionary steps that need to be taken in order to protect coastal communities. While instruments from the past have provided in situ measurements of sea level at specific locations across the globe, satellites can be used to provide improved spatial and temporal sampling of the ocean in addition to producing more accurate measurements. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height (SSH) with near-global coverage. Not only have these measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise, satellite altimetry observations have also been used to detect tsunami waves in the open ocean where wave amplitudes are relatively small, a vital step in providing early warning to those potentially affected by the impending tsunami. The use of satellite altimetry to monitor two specific sea level hazards is examined in this thesis. The first section will focus on the detection of tsunamis in the open ocean for the purpose of providing early warning to coastal inhabitants. The second section will focus on estimating secular trends using satellite altimetry data with the hope of improving our understanding of future sea level change. Results presented here will show the utility of satellite altimetry for sea level monitoring and will lay the foundation for further advancement in the detection of the two sea level hazards considered.
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Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise
Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.
2012-01-01
Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.
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Acute kidney injury after near drowning: The way from the beach to hemodialysis.
Alp, Alper; Akdam, Hakan; Meteoğlu, İbrahim; Ünsal, Alparslan; Akar, Harun; Yeniçerioğlu, Yavuz
2016-01-01
Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurs in many different situations and may have a variable prognosis influenced by clinical setting, underlying cause, and comorbidity. This is important because of the high mortality and morbidity risk affecting many people around the world. Near-drowning related AKI requiring hemodialysis is very seldom reported in literature. Although cardiovascular and respiratory disorders are more frequently seen after this entity, we aimed to emphasize this rare but dangerous complication in near-drowning patients. © 2015 International Society for Hemodialysis.
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Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.
Mimura, Nobuo
2013-01-01
Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).
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Morrongiello, Barbara A; Sandomierski, Megan; Schwebel, David C; Hagel, Brent
2013-01-01
Drowning is a leading cause of child mortality globally. Strategies that have been suggested to reduce pediatric drowning risk include increased parental awareness of children's swimming ability and drowning risk, improved adult supervision of child swimmers, and providing swim lessons to children. This study explored how parents' beliefs relevant to children's drowning risk, perception of children's swimming ability, and judgments of supervision needs changed as children aged two through 5 years accumulated experience in swim lessons, and compared a parent group who received regular, detailed feedback about their child's swim skills with one that did not. Parents completed questionnaire measures near the beginning and end of a series of 10 weekly swim lessons. Results revealed that parental accuracy in judging children's swimming abilities remained relatively poor even though it improved from the beginning to the end of the swim lessons. Supervision needs were underestimated and did not vary with program or change over the course of swim lessons. Children's ability to keep themselves from drowning was overestimated and did not change over lessons or vary with program; parents believed that children could save themselves from drowning by the age of 6.21 years. Parents who had experienced a close call for drowning showed greater awareness of children's drowning risk and endorsed more watchful and proximal supervision. Results suggest that expanding learn-to-swim programs to include a parent-focused component that provides detailed tracking of swim skills and delivers messaging targeting perceptions of children's drowning risk and supervision needs may serve to maximize the drowning protection afforded by these programs. Delivering messaging in the form of 'close-call' drowning stories may prove especially effective to impact parents' supervision practices in drowning risk situations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology
Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats inc...
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Sterner, E.; Johansson, D. J.
2013-12-01
Climate change depends on the increase of several different atmospheric pollutants. While long term global warming will be determined mainly by carbon dioxide, warming in the next few decades will depend to a large extent on short lived climate pollutants (SLCP). Reducing emissions of SLCPs could contribute to lower the global mean surface temperature by 0.5 °C already by 2050 (Shindell et al. 2012). Furthermore, the warming effect of one of the most potent SLCPs, black carbon (BC), may have been underestimated in the past. Bond et al. (2013) presents a new best estimate of the total BC radiative forcing (RF) of 1.1 W/m2 (90 % uncertainty bounds of 0.17 to 2.1 W/m2) since the beginning of the industrial era. BC is however never emitted alone and cooling aerosols from the same sources offset a majority of this RF. In the wake of calls for mitigation of SLCPs it is important to study other aspects of the climate effect of SLCPs. One key impact of climate change is sea-level rise (SLR). In a recent study, the effect of SLCP mitigation scenarios on SLR is examined. Hu et al (2013) find a substantial effect on SLR from mitigating SLCPs sharply, reducing SLR by 22-42% by 2100. We choose a different approach focusing on emission pulses and analyse a metric based on sea level rise so as to further enlighten the SLR consequences of SLCPs. We want in particular to understand the time dynamics of SLR impacts caused by SLCPs compared to other greenhouse gases. The most commonly used physical based metrics are GWP and GTP. We propose and evaluate an additional metric: The global sea-level rise potential (GSP). The GSP is defined as the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a forcer to the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a CO2. GSP is evaluated and compared to GWP and GTP using a set of climate forcers chosen to cover the whole scale of atmospheric perturbation life times (BC, CH4, N2O, CO2 and SF6). The study
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Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise.
Haigh, Ivan D; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J; Price, René M; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B; Calafat, Francisco M; Dangendorf, Sönke
2014-04-14
There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.
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Therapeutic hypothermia brings favorable neurologic outcomes in children with near drowning.
Chen, Ming-Chun; Chu, Chia-Hsiang; Cheng, Ching-Feng; Lin, Jun-Song; Chen, Jui-Hsia; Chang, Yu-Hsun
2016-01-01
A 1-year-10-month-old boy was admitted to our pediatric intensive care unit due to near drowning with pulmonary edema. A conventional ventilator with 100% oxygen supplementation was used initially, but was shifted to high frequency oscillatory ventilation as his oxygen saturation was around 84-88%. Therapeutic hypothermia was applied due to hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy with severe acidosis. His respiratory condition improved and he was extubated successfully on the 6 th hospital day. The patient had no obvious neurological defects and he was discharged in a stable condition after 17 days of hospitalization. Our case report demonstrates the advantages of therapeutic hypothermia on survival and neurological outcomes in treating pediatric near drowning patients.
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Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.
Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X
2015-01-22
Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paolo Ruggeri
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Sea drowning is a common cause of accidental death worldwide. Respiratory complications such as acute pulmonary oedema, which is often complicated by acute respiratory distress syndrome, is often seen. Noninvasive ventilation is already widely used as a first approach to treat acute respiratory failure resulting from multiple diseases. We report a case of a 45 year old man with a history of epilepsy, motor and mental handicap who developed acute respiratory failure secondary to sea water drowning after an epileptic crisis. We illustrate successful and rapid management of this case with noninvasive ventilation. We emphasize the advantages and limitations of using noninvasive ventilation to treat acute respiratory failure due to sea water drowning syndrome.
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Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.
Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M
2012-08-01
Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original
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NOAA Digital Coast Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer depicts potential sea level rise and its associated impacts on the nation's coastal areas. These coastal areas...
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Estimating sea-level allowances for Atlantic Canada under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Greenan
2015-03-01
Full Text Available This paper documents the methodology of computing sea-level rise allowances for Atlantic Canada in the 21st century under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. The sea-level rise allowances are defined as the amount by which an asset needs to be raised in order to maintain the same likelihood of future flooding events as that site has experienced in the recent past. The allowances are determined by combination of the statistics of present tides and storm surges (storm tides and the regional projections of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. Tide-gauge data for nine sites from the Canadian Atlantic coast are used to derive the scale parameters of present sea-level extremes using the Gumbel distribution function. The allowances in the 21st century, with respect to the year 1990, were computed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1FI emission scenario. For Atlantic Canada, the allowances are regionally variable and, for the period 1990–2050, range between –13 and 38 cm while, for the period 1990–2100, they range between 7 and 108 cm. The negative allowances in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence region are caused by land uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA.
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Integrating conservation costs into sea level rise adaptive conservation prioritization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mingjian Zhu
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Biodiversity conservation requires strategic investment as resources for conservation are often limited. As sea level rises, it is important and necessary to consider both sea level rise and costs in conservation decision making. In this study, we consider costs of conservation in an integrated modeling process that incorporates a geomorphological model (SLAMM, species habitat models, and conservation prioritization (Zonation to identify conservation priorities in the face of landscape dynamics due to sea level rise in the Matanzas River basin of northeast Florida. Compared to conservation priorities that do not consider land costs in the analysis process, conservation priorities that consider costs in the planning process change significantly. The comparison demonstrates that some areas with high conservation values might be identified as lower priorities when integrating economic costs in the planning process and some areas with low conservation values might be identified as high priorities when considering costs in the planning process. This research could help coastal resources managers make informed decisions about where and how to allocate conservation resources more wisely to facilitate biodiversity adaptation to sea level rise.
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Modeling the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Levels in Coastal New Hampshire
Jacobs, J. M.; Knott, J. F.; Daniel, J.; Kirshen, P. H.
2017-12-01
Coastal communities with high population density and low topography are vulnerable from sea-level rise (SLR) caused by climate change. Groundwater in coastal communities will rise with sea level impacting water quality, the structural integrity of infrastructure, and natural ecosystem health. SLR-induced groundwater rise has been studied in areas of high aquifer transmissivity and in low-lying areas immediately along the coast. In this regional study, we investigate SLR-induced groundwater rise in a coastal area characterized by shallow unconsolidated deposits overlying fractured bedrock, typical of the glaciated northeast United States. MODFLOW, a numerical groundwater-flow model, is used with groundwater observations, lidar topography, surface-water hydrology, and groundwater withdrawals to investigate SLR-induced changes in groundwater levels and vadose-zone thickness in New Hampshire's Seacoast. The SLR groundwater signal is detected up to 5 km from the coast, more than 3 times farther inland than projected surface-water flooding associated with SLR. Relative groundwater rise ranges from 38 to 98% of SLR within 1 km of the shoreline and drops below 4% between 4 and 5 km from the coast. The largest magnitude of SLR-induced groundwater rise occurs in the marine and estuarine deposits and land areas with tidal water bodies on three sides. In contrast, groundwater rise is dampened near streams. Groundwater inundation caused by 2 m of SLR is projected to contribute 48% of the total land inundation area in the City of Portsmouth with consequences for built and natural resources. Freshwater wetlands are projected to expand 3% by year 2030 increasing to 25% by year 2100 coupled with water-depth increases. These results imply that underground infrastructure and natural resources in coastal communities will be impacted by rising groundwater much farther inland than previously thought when considering only surface-water flooding from SLR.
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Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.
2017-01-01
Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.
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Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise.
Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L; Fletcher, Charles H; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D
2017-05-18
Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.
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The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades
Senarath, S. U.
2005-12-01
Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous
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Shen, Jiabin; Pang, Shulan; Schwebel, David C
2016-06-01
Unintentional drowning is the most common cause of childhood death in rural China. Global intervention efforts offer mixed results regarding the efficacy of educational programs. Using a randomized controlled design, we evaluated a testimonial-based intervention to reduce drowning risk among 280 3rd- and 4th-grade rural Chinese children. Children were randomly assigned to view either testimonials on drowning risk (intervention) or dog-bite risk (control). Safety knowledge and perceived vulnerability were measured by self-report questionnaires, and simulated behaviors in and near water were assessed with a culturally appropriate dollhouse task. Children in the intervention group had improved children's safety knowledge and simulated behaviors but not perceived vulnerability compared with controls. The testimonial-based intervention's efficacy appears promising, as it improved safety knowledge and simulated risk behaviors with water among rural Chinese children. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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ACCELERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER MALAYSIAN SEAS FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETER
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. I. A. Hamid
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS. Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.
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Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter
Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.
2016-09-01
Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.
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Surfactant for acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by near drowning in a newborn.
Fettah, Nurdan; Dilli, Dilek; Beken, Serdar; Zenciroglu, Aysegul; Okumuş, Nurullah
2014-03-01
Near drowning is the term for survival after suffocation caused by submersion in water or another fluid. Pulmonary insufficiency may develop insidiously or suddenly because of near drowning. We want to present a newborn case of acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by near drowning. A 26-day-old boy was brought to the emergency department because of severe respiratory distress. Two hours before admission, the baby suddenly slipped out his mother's hands and fell in the bathtub full of water while bathing. After initial resuscitation, he was transferred to the neonatal intensive care unit for mechanical ventilation. PaO2/FIO2 ratio was 97, with SaO2 of 84%. Bilateral heterogeneous densities were seen on his chest x-ray film. The baby was considered to have acute respiratory distress syndrome. Antibiotics were given to prevent infection. Because conventional therapy failed to improve oxygenation, a single dose of surfactant was tested via an intubation cannula. Four hours later, poractant alfa (Curosurf) administered repeatedly at the same dosage because of hypoxemia (PaO2/FIO2 ratio, 124; SaO2, 88%). Oxygen saturation was increased to more than 90% in 24 hours, which was maintained for 3 days when we were able to wean him from mechanical ventilation. After 7 days, the x-ray film showed considerable clearing of shadows. He was discharged home on the 15th day after full recovery. This case report describes a rapid and persistent improvement after 2 doses of surfactant in acute respiratory distress syndrome with severe oxygenation failure caused by near drowning in a newborn.
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Evaluation of sea level rise in Bohai Bay and associated responses
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ke-Xiu LIU
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Tide gauge data from 1950 to 2015 are used to analyze sea level change, tidal change, return levels, and design tide levels under rising sea level scenarios in Bohai Bay. Results show the following: 1 Since 1950 sea levels in Bohai Bay show a significant rising trend of 3.3 mm per year. The speed has been particularly rapid in 1980–2015 at a rate of 4.7 mm per year. 2 Astronomical tides showed a clear long-term trend in 1950–2015. The amplitude and phase lag of the M2 tide constituent decreased at a rate of 0.21 cm per year and 0.11° per year, respectively and the phase lag of K1 decreased at a rate of 0.09° per year, whereas there was little change in its amplitude. The mean high and low tides increased at a rate of 0.08 and 0.52 cm per year, respectively, whereas the mean tidal range decreased at a rate of 0.44 cm per year. Results from numerical experiments show that local sea level rise plays an important role in the tidal dynamics change in Bohai Bay. 3 It is considered that the sea level return periods will decrease owing to the influence of sea level rise and land subsidence, therefore design tide level will change in relation to sea level rise. Therefore, the ability of seawalls to withstand water will diminish, and storm surge disasters will become more serious in the future.
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Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H; Zervas, Chris E
2012-01-01
Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts. (letter)
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A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Perrette
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.
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Kieboom, J. K.; Verkade, H. J.; Burgerhof, J. G.; Bierens, J. J.; van Rheenen, P. F.; Kneyber, M. C.; Albers, M. J.
2015-01-01
OBJECTIVES To evaluate the outcome of drowned children with cardiac arrest and hypothermia, and to determine distinct criteria for termination of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in drowned children with hypothermia and absence of spontaneous circulation. DESIGN Nationwide retrospective cohort study.
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Kapur, N; Slater, A; McEniery, J; Greer, M L; Masters, I B; Chang, A B
2009-10-01
Foreign matter aspiration occurs relatively commonly in drowning and near-drowning events. In most cases, stomach contents are aspirated. Sand aspiration rarely occurs and there are no reported cases in children with near drowning. Limited data are available on clinical presentation and management of sand aspiration with accidental burial. We report a 3-year-old boy who nearly drowned while swimming in brackish waters and was found face down in sand. Sand aspiration was suspected when the child continued to have persistent wheezing and high ventilatory requirement despite intensive bronchodilator and corticosteroids therapy with an inability to wean after 4 days post-near-drowning event. Radiology was non-specific in the absence of sand bronchogram. Presence of sand in the airways was confirmed when a bronchoscopy was undertaken and sand seen in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid. Sequential lung washing followed by exogenous surfactant administration (3 ml/kg) was undertaken and lead to significant improvement such that within 12 hr post-therapeutic lavage, his ventilatory requirements reduced substantially. The child was extubated 4 days post-lavage and on review 2 months post-event, was clinically well with airway resistance within normal predicted values measured on forced oscillatory spirometry (IOS).
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How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level
Krauss, Ken W.; McKee, Karen L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen
2014-01-01
Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.
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Electrolytes imbalance in saltwater near-drowning victims in the Gulf of Thailand.
Yongsiri, Somchai; Dinchuthai, Pakapan; Thammakumpee, Jiranuch; Prongnamchai, Suriya; Chueansuwan, Rachaneeporn; Tangjaturonrasme, Siriporn; Chaivanit, Pechngam
2013-10-01
Near-drowning victims in saltwater are expected to have multiple electrolytes imbalance that affected treatment outcome. There are limited data about these parameters in Thailand to guide the treatment plan. To study the characteristic of electrolytes imbalance in saltwater near-drowning victims in the Gulf of Thailand. Retrospective analytic study of 39 medical records of near-drowning patients admitted to Burapha University Hospital between 2000 and 2010. Characteristics of the patients and serum electrolytes were analyzed by SPSS version 19 for windows. The study included 23 male, 16 female patients. Average age was 14.46 +/- 11.15 years and 19/39 (48.72%) patients were aged 10 or less. The following electrolytes imbalance were identified, hypokalemia 8/39 (20.51%), hypernatremia 12/39 (30.77%), hyperchloremia 15/39 (38.46%), high anion gap 23/39 (58.97%), and hypobicarbonatemia 28/39 (71.79%). Seven out of eight patients in the hypokalemia group were in the high anion gap group. Mean SpO2 in the patients who had high anion gap was significantly lower than those who had normal anion gap (87.06 +/- 17.68% vs. 95.8 +/- 5.94% p = 0.031) without difference in systolic blood pressure (112.59 +/- 14.63 vs. 105.67 +/- 13.98 p = 0.159). Those who were hypotensive significantly had lower bicarbonate (17.00 +/- 3.51 vs. 20.59 +/- 3.81 p = 0.038) and higher anion gap (19.29 +/- 1.799 vs. 16.25 +/- 6.25 p = 0.025) than normotensive patients. Hypobicarbonatemia, high anion gap, hypernatremia, and hypokalemia were common in saltwater near-drowning patients in the Gulf of Thailand. The cause of high anion gap was probably due to hypoxia and hypotension.
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The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise
Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Friess, Daniel A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Krauss, Ken W.; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L.; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran
2015-01-01
Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world’s mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.
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The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.
Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Friess, Daniel A; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; Krauss, Ken W; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran
2015-10-22
Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.
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Childhood near-drowning retrospectIve reVIew a 12-year
African Journals Online (AJOL)
1990-10-06
Oct 6, 1990 ... age (ratio of boys to girls 2,1:1) and 46% of accidents occurred In swimming ..... great deal of work needs to be done in South Africa before effective preventive ... can prevent a large percentage of drownings provided they are.
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Patterns of behaviour that pose potential drowning risk to hikers at Yosemite National Park.
Girasek, Deborah C; Marschall, Joy S; Pope, Dov
2016-01-01
To analyse patterns of departure from a popular hiking trail in Yosemite National Park, at sites where fatal drownings have occurred in the past. This study employed direct observation. For 32 days throughout the summer of 2013, study team members observed hikers who entered areas that brought them in close proximity to hazardous sections of the Merced River. Subject and environmental data were recorded for 1417 such approaches. In 81% of our observation hours, subjects entered 'risk zones.' The median number of hikers seen near/in the river was eight per hour at the Vernal Fall footbridge, and three at the top of the waterfall. A regression analysis found that air temperature and later hike starts were positively associated, and water level was negatively associated, with the rate of river approach. Means of river access were also identified. Males, teens and people who were alone were significantly more likely to be observed entering particularly dangerous areas. It is common for hikers to approach water sources during summer months, particularly as air temperatures rise. By analysing how behaviour and environmental factors co-vary, safety advocates can tailor risk reduction measures to specific settings and visitor populations. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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Bangladesh’s dynamic coastal regions and sea-level rise
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hugh Brammer
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The physical geography of Bangladesh’s coastal area is more diverse and dynamic than is generally recognised. Failure to recognise this has led to serious misconceptions about the potential impacts of a rising sea-level on Bangladesh with global warming. This situation has been aggravated by accounts giving incorrect information on current rates of coastal erosion and land subsidence. This paper describes physical conditions within individual physiographic regions in Bangladesh’s coastal area based on ground-surveyed information, and it reviews possible area-specific mitigation measures to counter predicted rates of sea-level rise in the 21st century. Two important conclusions are drawn: the adoption of appropriate measures based on knowledge of the physical geography of potentially-affected areas could significantly reduce the currently-predicted displacement of many millions of people; and the impacts of a slowly-rising sea-level are currently much less than those generated by rapidly increasing population pressure on Bangladesh’s available land and water resources and by exposure to existing environmental hazards, and the latter problems need priority attention.
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Preparing Norfolk Area Students for America's Second Highest Sea Level Rise
Dunbar, R. R.
2017-12-01
The nonprofit Elizabeth River Project located in Hampton Roads, Virginia was awarded a 3-year national NOAA Environmental Literacy award 2016-2019 to teach 21,000 K-12 youth how to help restore one of the most polluted rivers on the Chesapeake Bay and to help create a resilient community that is facing impacts from the rising seas and changing climate. Through a community collaboration, partners are also creating perhaps the nation's first Youth Resilience Strategy with a vision, goals, best practices and resources on engaging youth to help create resilient cities facing environmental and economic changes. During Year 1, 7,000 elementary students held field investigations aboard the floating classroom Learning Barge and at Paradise Creek Nature Park and helped restore wetland restoration sites. Students performed inquiry based investigations, learned stewardship actions to help create resilience and showed a 40% increase in knowledge. Year 1 best practices in teaching resilience include youth: getting out of the classroom, discovering how rain water travels, performing bioblitzes and water quality testing, engaging in hands-on GreenSTEM activities, using investigation tools, creating innovative solutions to retain and reuse rain water, creating art and voicing their opinions on creating a resilient community.Lessons learned include developing engaging inquiry questions based on creating a resilient community. These included: "What are the impact of rising tides?", "How can sea level rise affect river animals?", "How can we be safe and prepare for extreme weather and flooding as the sea level rises?", "How has the way people worked with the Elizabeth River changed?", "How could sea level rise affect the Elizabeth River's water quality?", "How hot might the air temperature get by 2050 and what can we do to keep it cooler?", "What does this park show us about sea level rise and other ways our climate is changing?", "How do trees help make our park and community
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Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate
Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri
2011-01-01
Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…
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Denehy, Mel; Leavy, Justine E; Jancey, Jonine; Nimmo, Lauren; Crawford, Gemma
2017-07-31
Drowning in children under the age of 5 is a frequently occurring, yet preventable event. This research used behavioural theory to test the suitability and appropriateness of a drowning prevention message in a community service video. This qualitative study used content analysis of focus groups. Constructs from the Health Belief Model guided the data analysis. Community organisations and playgrounds in Perth, Western Australia. Participants were parents or carers of at least one child under 5 years residing in Western Australia. Seven focus groups (n=57) were conducted with eight participants in each group. Most participants were parents (96%), female (95%), aged between 25 and 34 years (63%) and were born in Australia (68%). Participants indicated the community service video was credible in communicating the message that young children were susceptible to drowning in shallow water and that various water hazards existed in and around the home. However, a range of external factors, such as the child's age, type of water hazard, presence of siblings and other environmental factors, influenced risk perceptions. Child drowning was seen as a serious issue. Controlling access to water and the role of supervision were understood to be important factors in preventing drowning. The lack of published drowning prevention interventions shaped by behavioural theory limits the understanding of best practice. Using constructs from the Health Belief Model, this research confirmed the perceived seriousness, devastating and unforgettable consequence of drowning; however, findings were mixed regarding cues to action. Future development of drowning prevention media messages should test strategies to increase susceptibility and self-efficacy among the target group and explore the impact of different message senders. The findings provide a valuable understanding of possible messages and their execution for use in media campaigns, as one component of an effective public health
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Childhood near-drowning - a 12-year retrospective review | Kibel ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The epidemiological findings in 107 patients admitted to Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital, Cape Town, between 1976 and 1987 with a diagnosis of near-drowning are reported. Of these patients, 77% were less than. 5 years of age (ratio of boys to girls 2,1: 1) and 46% of accidents occurred In swimming pools, ...
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Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.
Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R
2017-04-20
Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.
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Impact of sea level rise on tide gate function.
Walsh, Sean; Miskewitz, Robert
2013-01-01
Sea level rise resulting from climate change and land subsidence is expected to severely impact the duration and associated damage resulting from flooding events in tidal communities. These communities must continuously invest resources for the maintenance of existing structures and installation of new flood prevention infrastructure. Tide gates are a common flood prevention structure for low-lying communities in the tidal zone. Tide gates close during incoming tides to prevent inundation from downstream water propagating inland and open during outgoing tides to drain upland areas. Higher downstream mean sea level elevations reduce the effectiveness of tide gates by impacting the hydraulics of the system. This project developed a HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS model of an existing tide gate structure and its upland drainage area in the New Jersey Meadowlands to simulate the impact of rising mean sea level elevations on the tide gate's ability to prevent upstream flooding. Model predictions indicate that sea level rise will reduce the tide gate effectiveness resulting in longer lasting and deeper flood events. The results indicate that there is a critical point in the sea level elevation for this local area, beyond which flooding scenarios become dramatically worse and would have a significantly negative impact on the standard of living and ability to do business in one of the most densely populated areas of America.
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SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.
Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E
2015-07-10
Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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Global warming and sea level rise. Chikyu Ondanka to kaimen josho
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mimura, N [Ibaraki University, Ibaraki (Japan). Faculty of Engineering
1993-10-15
This paper describes the following matters on the problems of global warming and sea level rise. The first evaluation report published by the inter-government panel on climate change (IPCC) in 1990 estimates that, if emission of greenhouse effect gas keeps increasing at the present rate, the air temperature and the average sea level would rise by 3[degree]C and 65 centimeters, respectively by 2100. Global warming would not only result in rise of the sea level, but also accompany changes in strengths and routes of tropical low pressure areas, and precipitation patterns. Downstream areas of large rivers and island countries on coral reefs may have a risk of getting submerged. Countries having coasts developed to high densities (Japan, for example) would be subjected to a high potential effect. An 'East Hemisphere International Conference on Sea Level Rising Problem' was held in Japan in August 1993 as part of the works to prepare the second evaluation report of the IPCC (publication scheduled for 1995). The conference was attended by 24 countries, and 43 study results were reported. 4 figs.
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Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Unnikrishnan, A.S.
Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 91 Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century A. S. Unnikrishnan National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa-403004 unni@nio.org Introduction Sea-level... rise is one of the good indicators of global warming. Rise in sea level occurs mainly through melting of glaciers, thermal expansion due to ocean warming and some other processes of relatively smaller magnitudes. Sea level rise is a global...
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Recovery from near drowning and postanoxic status epilepticus with controlled hypothermia
de Pont, A C J M; de Jager, C P C; van den Bergh, W M; Schultz, M J
A diver was resuscitated after cardiac arrest due to near drowning and was hypothermic on hospital arrival. During rewarming, status epilepticus occurred, previously identified as a predictor of poor outcome. The seizures responded well to treatment with antiepileptic drugs and controlled
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Recovery from near drowning and postanoxic status epilepticus with controlled hypothermia
de Pont, A. C. J. M.; de Jager, C. P. C.; van den Bergh, W. M.; Schultz, M. J.
2011-01-01
A diver was resuscitated after cardiac arrest due to near drowning and was hypothermic on hospital arrival. During rewarming, status epilepticus occurred, previously identified as a predictor of poor outcome. The seizures responded well to treatment with antiepileptic drugs and controlled
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Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.
2012-04-01
Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea
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The clinical and radiological study of near drowning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reinhardt, K.
1982-01-01
A survey is given of the literature on near drowning, discussing the aspects for all disciplines emphasising the radiological features. The radological pictures are demonstrated and case descriptions containing radiological features are cited extensively out of the literature. This survey should be of great value for the clinician in therapy and control of course. The correlation of the clinical and radiological features should promote a better interpretation of pathogenetic mechanisms. (orig.) [de
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Should We Leave? Attitudes towards Relocation in Response to Sea Level Rise
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jie Song
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The participation of individuals contributes significantly to the success of sea level rise adaptation. This study therefore addresses what influences people’s likelihood of relocating away from low-lying areas in response to rising sea levels. The analysis was based on a survey conducted in the City of Panama Beach in Florida (USA. Survey items relate to people’s risk perception, hazard experience, threat appraisal, and coping appraisal, whose theoretical background is Protection Motivation Theory. Descriptive and correlation analysis was first performed to highlight critical factors which were then examined by a multinomial Logit model. Results show that sea level rise awareness is the major explanatory variable. Coping appraisal is qualitatively viewed as a strong predictor for action, while threat appraisal is statistically significant in driving relocation intention. These factors should be integrated in current risk communication regarding sea level rise.
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Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in near-drowning patients with cardiac or pulmonary failure.
Kim, Kun Il; Lee, Won Yong; Kim, Hyoung Soo; Jeong, Jae Han; Ko, Ho Hyun
2014-12-12
The aim of this study was to determine the early outcomes of using extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) in near-drowning patients with cardiac or pulmonary failure. This study was based on data from 9 patients including 2 children (mean age 33; 8 males, 1 female) who received ECMO after near-drowning between 2008 and 2013. Veno-arterial or veno-arteriovenous ECMO was used in 2 patients with sustained cardiac arrest and veno-venous ECMO was used in 7 patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The means of the partial arterial oxygen pressure (PaO2), Murray score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, and simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS-II) prior to ECMO were 59.7 ± 9.9 mmHg on 100% oxygen, 3.5 ± 0.6, 11.4 ± 1.9, and 73.0 ± 9.2, respectively. The PaO2 mean improved to 182 ± 152 mmHg within 2 h post-ECMO. The mean of SOFA score and SAPS-II decreased significantly to 8.6 ± 3.2 (p = 0.013) and 46.4 ± 5.1 (p = 0.008), respectively, at 24 h post-ECMO with mean flow rate of 3.9 ± 0.8 l/min. ECMO was weaned at a mean duration of 188 (range, 43-672) h in all patients. Seven patients were discharged home without neurological sequelae, while 2 patients who had hypoxic brain damage died after further referral. The overall survival with favourable neurological outcomes at 3 months was 77.8%. There were no complications related to ECMO. ECMO was safe and effective for patients with ongoing cardiac arrest or ARDS after a near-drowning incident and can be used as a resuscitative strategy in near-drowning patients with cardiac or pulmonary failure resistant to conventional ventilator therapy.
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Bjerklie, David M.; Mullaney, John R.; Stone, Janet R.; Skinner, Brian J.; Ramlow, Matthew A.
2012-01-01
Global sea level rose about 0.56 feet (ft) (170 millimeters (mm)) during the 20th century. Since the 1960s, sea level has risen at Bridgeport, Connecticut, about 0.38 ft (115 mm), at a rate of 0.008 ft (2.56 mm + or - 0.58 mm) per year. With regional subsidence, and with predicted global climate change, sea level is expected to continue to rise along the northeast coast of the United States through the 21st century. Increasing sea levels will cause groundwater levels in coastal areas to rise in order to adjust to the new conditions. Some regional climate models predict wetter climate in the northeastern United States under some scenarios. Scenarios for the resulting higher groundwater levels have the potential to inundate underground infrastructure in lowlying coastal cities. New Haven is a coastal city in Connecticut surrounded and bisected by tidally affected waters. Monitoring of water levels in wells in New Haven from August 2009 to July 2010 indicates the complex effects of urban influence on groundwater levels. The response of groundwater levels to recharge and season varied considerably from well to well. Groundwater temperatures varied seasonally, but were warmer than what was typical for Connecticut, and they seem to reflect the influence of the urban setting, including the effects of conduits for underground utilities. Specific conductance was elevated in many of the wells, indicating the influence of urban activities or seawater in Long Island Sound. A preliminary steady-state model of groundwater flow for part of New Haven was constructed using MODFLOW to simulate current groundwater levels (2009-2010) and future groundwater levels based on scenarios with a rise of 3 ft (0.91 meters (m)) in sea level, which is predicted for the end of the 21st century. An additional simulation was run assuming a 3-ft rise in sea level combined with a 12-percent increase in groundwater recharge. The model was constructed from existing hydrogeologic information for the
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Can sea level rise cause large submarine landslides on continental slopes?
Urlaub, Morelia
2014-05-01
Submarine landslides are one of the volumetrically most important sediment transport processes at continental margins. Moreover, these landslides are a major geohazard as they can cause damaging tsunamis and destroy seabed infrastructure. Due to their inaccessibility our understanding of what causes these landslides is limited and based on hypotheses that are difficult to test. Some of the largest submarine landslides, such as the Storegga Slide off Norway, occurred during times of eustatic sea level rise. It has been suggested that this global sea level rise was implicated in triggering of the landslides by causing an increase in excess pore pressure in the subseafloor. However, in a homogeneous slope a change in the thickness of the overlying water mass is not expected to affect its stability, as only the hydrostatic pressure component will change, whereas pore pressures in excess of hydrostatic will remain unaltered. Whether sufficiently rapid sea level rise, aided by rather impermeable sediment and complex layering, could cause excess pore pressures that may destabilise a continental slope is more difficult to answer and has not yet been tested. I use Finite Element Modelling to explore and quantify the direct effect of changes in the thickness of the overlying water mass on the stability of a generic sediment column with different stratigraphic conditions and hydro-mechanical properties. The results show that the direct effect of sea level rise on continental slope stability is minimal. Nevertheless, sea level rise may foster other processes, such as lithospheric stress changes resulting in increased seismicity, that could potentially cause large submarine landslides on continental slopes.
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Effective media reporting of sea level rise projections: 1989-2009
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rick, U K; Boykoff, M T; Pielke, R A Jr
2011-01-01
In the mass media, sea level rise is commonly associated with the impacts of climate change due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. As this issue garners ongoing international policy attention, segments of the scientific community have expressed unease about how this has been covered by mass media. Therefore, this study examines how sea level rise projections-in IPCC Assessment Reports and a sample of the scientific literature-have been represented in seven prominent United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) newspapers over the past two decades. The research found that-with few exceptions-journalists have accurately portrayed scientific research on sea level rise projections to 2100. Moreover, while coverage has predictably increased in the past 20 years, journalists have paid particular attention to the issue in years when an IPCC report is released or when major international negotiations take place, rather than when direct research is completed and specific projections are published. We reason that the combination of these factors has contributed to a perceived problem in the sea level rise reporting by the scientific community, although systematic empirical research shows none. In this contemporary high-stakes, high-profile and highly politicized arena of climate science and policy interactions, such results mark a particular bright spot in media representations of climate change. These findings can also contribute to more measured considerations of climate impacts and policy action at a critical juncture of international negotiations and everyday decision-making associated with the causes and consequences of climate change.
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Predicting the impact of tsunami in California under rising sea level
Dura, T.; Garner, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.
2017-12-01
The flood hazard for the California coast depends not only on the magnitude, location, and rupture length of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone earthquakes and their resultant tsunamis, but also on rising sea levels, which combine with tsunamis to produce overall flood levels. The magnitude of future sea-level rise remains uncertain even on the decadal scale, with future sea-level projections becoming even more uncertain at timeframes of a century or more. Earthquake statistics indicate that timeframes of ten thousand to one hundred thousand years are needed to capture rare, very large earthquakes. Because of the different timescales between reliable sea-level projections and earthquake distributions, simply combining the different probabilities in the context of a tsunami hazard assessment may be flawed. Here, we considered 15 earthquakes between Mw 8 to Mw 9.4 bound by -171oW and -140oW of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. We employed 24 realizations at each magnitude with random epicenter locations and different fault length-to-width ratios, and simulated the tsunami evolution from these 360 earthquakes at each decade from the years 2000 to 2200. These simulations were then carried out for different sea-level-rise projections to analyze the future flood hazard for California. Looking at the flood levels at tide gauges, we found that the flood level simulated at, for example, the year 2100 (including respective sea-level change) is different from the flood level calculated by adding the flood for the year 2000 to the sea-level change prediction for the year 2100. This is consistent for all sea-level rise scenarios, and this difference in flood levels range between 5% and 12% for the larger half of the given magnitude interval. Focusing on flood levels at the tide gauge in the Port of Los Angeles, the most probable flood level (including all earthquake magnitudes) in the year 2000 was 5 cm. Depending on the sea-level predictions, in the year 2050 the most probable
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Sea level rise in the Arctic Ocean
Proshutinsky, Andrey; Pavlov, Vladimir; Bourke, Robert H.
2001-01-01
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012760 About 60 tide-gauge stations in the Kara, Laptev, East-Siberian and Chukchi Seas have recorded the sea level change from the 1950s through 1990s. Over this 40-year period, most of these stations show a significant sea level rise (SLR). In light of global change, this SLR could be a manifestation of warming in the Artic coupled with a decrease of sea ice extent, warming of Atlantic waters, changes in...
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On the design of high-rise buildings with a specified level of reliability
Dolganov, Andrey; Kagan, Pavel
2018-03-01
High-rise buildings have a specificity, which significantly distinguishes them from traditional buildings of high-rise and multi-storey buildings. Steel structures in high-rise buildings are advisable to be used in earthquake-proof regions, since steel, due to its plasticity, provides damping of the kinetic energy of seismic impacts. These aspects should be taken into account when choosing a structural scheme of a high-rise building and designing load-bearing structures. Currently, modern regulatory documents do not quantify the reliability of structures. Although the problem of assigning an optimal level of reliability has existed for a long time. The article shows the possibility of designing metal structures of high-rise buildings with specified reliability. Currently, modern regulatory documents do not quantify the reliability of high-rise buildings. Although the problem of assigning an optimal level of reliability has existed for a long time. It is proposed to establish the value of reliability 0.99865 (3σ) for constructions of buildings and structures of a normal level of responsibility in calculations for the first group of limiting states. For increased (construction of high-rise buildings) and reduced levels of responsibility for the provision of load-bearing capacity, it is proposed to assign respectively 0.99997 (4σ) and 0.97725 (2σ). The coefficients of the use of the cross section of a metal beam for different levels of security are given.
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Organising pneumonia after near-drowning
Uchiyama, Noboru; Suda, Rika; Yamao, Sayaka; Horinouchi, Hidehito; Sugiura, Rika; Tomishima, Yutaka; Jinta, Torahiko; Nishimura, Naoki; Chohnabayashi, Naohiko
2009-01-01
A 38 year-old female with no significant medical history was transferred to a medical centre in Hawaii after near-drowning at the beach. She was noted to have increasing shortness of breath. Subsequently she was placed on non-invasive ventilation and then intubated for respiratory support. She was thought to have early stage acute respiratory distress syndrome after sea water aspiration. By multidisciplinary treatment, she was able to be extubated successfully on hospital day 5, and then flew back to Japan. When visiting our hospital in Japan, further examinations were conducted for prolonged respiratory symptoms and pulmonary infiltrates by CT. A specimen obtained by transbronchial lung biopsy revealed organising pneumonia which was thought to be related to sea water aspiration. Methylprednisolone treatment resolved her respiratory symptoms and pulmonary infiltrates. PMID:21686991
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Kimura, Mitsutoshi; Kinoshita, Osamu; Fujimoto, Yoshifumi; Murakami, Arata; Shindo, Takahiro; Kashiwa, Koichi; Ono, Minoru
2014-02-01
Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is an effective respiratory and circulatory support in patients in refractory cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest. Peripheral ECMO sometimes requires left heart drainage; however, few reports state that pulmonary arterial (PA) venting is required during ECMO support. We present a case of a 14-year-old boy who required PA venting during ECMO support after resuscitation from near-drowning in freshwater. A biventricular assist device with an oxygenator implantation was intended on day 1; however, we were unable to proceed because of increasing of pulmonary vascular resistance from the acute lung injury. Central ECMO with PA venting was then performed. On day 13, central ECMO was converted to biventricular assist device with an oxygenator, which was removed on day 16. This case suggests that PA venting during ECMO support may be necessary in some cases of respiratory and circulatory failure with high pulmonary vascular resistance after near-drowning.
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Cohen, Neta; Scolnik, Dennis; Rimon, Ayelet; Balla, Uri; Glatstein, Miguel
2018-02-05
Drowning is a leading cause of death among infants and toddlers. Unique physiological and behavioral factors contribute to high mortality rates. Drowning incidents predominantly occur during warmer months and holidays. The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of pediatric drowning victims who attended 2 different emergency departments (EDs), 1 near and 1 distant from the sea coast, to recognize risk factors, complications, causes of death, and the educational needs of families and caregivers. Retrospective cohort analysis of incident history, clinical presentation, treatments, and outcomes of drowning victims was performed. Data were analyzed both by age group and proximity of institution to the sea coast. From 2005 to 2015, 70 drowning patients presented to the 2 institutions; there was no difference in incident history or outcomes based on proximity to the sea coast. Fifty-six percent of patients were younger than 6 years, the majority drowning in pools. More of the older children drowned in the sea (48% vs 23%). Half of all patients were treated and followed in the ED or ward, and the other half were treated in the pediatric intensive care unit; 12 suffered severe complications, including 5 diagnosed with brain death. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation was performed in 80% of the fatal group and 23% of the nonfatal group (P = 0.006). Seven children who experienced a cardiac arrest with hypothermia were treated before arrival in the ED, and 5 had ongoing cardiac arrest upon arrival in the ED (these were the 5 suffering brain death). Most of patients younger than 6 years drowned in swimming pools, suggesting that parents are perhaps less vigilant in these circumstances, even though they may remain in close proximity. Active adult supervision entails attention, proximity, and continuity. Educational efforts should be aimed at reminding parents of this, especially in the summer months.
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Tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise: importance of local-scale models
Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Takekawa, John Y.
2015-01-01
Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting study-site conditions were comprised of 78% (253-ha) high marsh, 7% (30-ha) mid marsh, and 4% (18-ha) low marsh habitats, dominated by pickleweed Sarcocornia pacifica and cordgrass Spartina spp. Only under the low sea-level rise scenario (44 cm by 2100) did our models show persistence of some marsh habitats to 2100, with the area dominated by low marsh habitats. Under mid (93 cm by 2100) and high sea-level rise scenarios (166 cm by 2100), most mid and high marsh habitat was lost by 2070, with only 15% (65 ha) remaining, and a complete loss of these habitats by 2080. Low marsh habitat increased temporarily under all three sea-level rise scenarios, with the peak (286 ha) in 2070, adding habitat for the endemic endangered California Ridgway’s rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus. Under mid and high sea-level rise scenarios, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred, with most of the area below mean sea level. Our modeling assumed no marsh migration upslope due to human
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National evaluation of Chinese coastal erosion to sea level rise using a Bayesian approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhan, Q; Fan, X; Du, X; Zhu, J
2014-01-01
In this paper a Causal Bayesian network is developed to predict decadal-scale shoreline evolution of China to sea-level rise. The Bayesian model defines relationships between 6 factors of Chinese coastal system such as coastal geomorphology, mean tide range, mean wave height, coastal slope, relative sea-level rise rate and shoreline erosion rate. Using the Bayesian probabilistic model, we make quantitative assessment of china's shoreline evolution in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results indicate that the probability of coastal erosion with high and very high rates increases from 28% to 32.3% when relative sea-level rise rates is 4∼6mm/a, and to 44.9% when relative sea-level rise rates is more than 6mm/a. A hindcast evaluation of the Bayesian model shows that the model correctly predicts 79.3% of the cases. Model test indicates that the Bayesian model shows higher predictive capabilities for stable coasts and very highly eroding coasts than moderately and highly eroding coasts. This study demonstrates that the Bayesian model is adapted to predicting decadal-scale Chinese coastal erosion associated with sea-level rise
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Drones may be used to save lives in out of hospital cardiac arrest due to drowning.
Claesson, A; Svensson, L; Nordberg, P; Ringh, M; Rosenqvist, M; Djarv, T; Samuelsson, J; Hernborg, O; Dahlbom, P; Jansson, A; Hollenberg, J
2017-05-01
Drowning leading to out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and death is a major public health concern. Submersion with duration of less than 10min is associated with favorable neurological outcome and nearby bystanders play a considerable role in rescue and resuscitation. Drones can provide a visual overview of an accident scene, their potential as lifesaving tools in drowning has not been evaluated. The aim of this simulation study was to evaluate the efficiency of a drone for providing earlier location of a submerged possible drowning victim in comparison with standard procedure. This randomized simulation study used a submerged manikin placed in a shallow (drone transmitting video to a tablet (intervention). Time from start to contact with the manikin was the primary endpoint. Twenty searches were performed in total, 10 for each group. The median time from start to contact with the manikin was 4:34min (IQR 2:56-7:48) for the search party (control) and 0:47min (IQR 0:38-0:58) for the drone-system (intervention) respectively (pdrone was 3:38min (IQR 2:02-6:38). A drone transmitting live video to a tablet is feasible, time saving in comparison to traditional search parties and may be used for providing earlier location of submerged victims at a beach. Drone search can possibly contribute to earlier onset of CPR in drowning victims. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.
Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
2018-02-20
Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.
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Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?
Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.
2012-04-01
In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade
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Wetland Responses to Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico
Alizad, K.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Morris, J. T.
2016-12-01
Coastal regions are vulnerable to flood risk due to climate change, sea level rise, and wetland losses. The Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) is a region in which extreme events are projected to be more intense under climate change and sea level rise scenarios [Wang et al., 2013; Bilskie et al., 2014]. Considering increased frequency and intensity of coastal flooding, wetlands are valuable natural resources that protect shorelines by dissipating waves and storm surges [Costanza et al., 2008]. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the response of salt marsh systems in different estuaries to sea level rise in the NGOM and their effects on storm surges to inform coastal managers to choose effective restoration plans. This research applies the coupled Hydro-MEM model [Alizad et al., 2016] to study three different estuarine systems in the NGOM. The model incorporates both sea level rise rate and feedbacks between physics and biology by coupling a hydrodynamic (ADCIRC) and salt marsh (MEM) model. The results of the model provide tidal hydrodynamics and biomass density change under four sea level rise projections during a 100-year period. The results are used to investigate marsh migration path in the estuarine systems. In addition, this study shows how marsh migration and biomass density change can impact storm surge modeling. The results imply the broader impacts of sea level rise on the estuarine systems in the NGOM. ReferencesAlizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, P. Bacopoulos, M. V. Bilskie, J. Weishampel, and S. C. Medeiros (2016), A coupled, two-dimensional hydrodynamic-marsh model with biological feedback, Ecological Modeling, 327, 29-43. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Costanza, R., O. Pérez-Maqueo, M. L. Martinez, P. Sutton, S. J. Anderson, and K. Mulder (2008), The Value of Coastal Wetlands for Hurricane
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Morphological changes within Florida Bay as a result of sea level rise
Holmes, C. W.
2011-12-01
Data from Florida Bay indicates that from 10,000 year BP to 6000 BP, the rate of sea level rise averaged about 10 mm/yr. The rate slowed at the end of this period flooding the shallow shelves surrounding the reef platforms of the western Atlantic. The relative flat South Florida shelf, because of its slight tilt to the southwest is an ideal local to assess the effects of this flooding. From 6000 BP to the present, numerous banks were formed within Florida Bay. A morphological model of bank formation based on the sea level oscillations was constructed from analysis of over 120 cores. These cores record sedimentological changes which are correlated to climatic events. In the central bay, the sediment accumulation was controlled by variations in rate of progressive sea-level rise. The Key West sea-level record shows that sea level has been rising incrementally over the last century. Between 1931 and 1950, sea level rose at a rate of 5 mm/yr. After 1950, it remained stable until 1971, when it again began to rise, but at a rate of 3 mm/yr. On the leeward side of mud banks, these variations resulted in shifts in sediment- accumulation rates, with accretion increasing during rising sea level and decreasing during stable periods. Between late 1970 and early 1972, a sharp jump in sea-level rise occurred that was approximately 10 cm higher than the preceding period. This jump coincided with a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a la Niña (negative ENSO), and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Water driven northward into Florida Bay eroded banks along the northern coastline, increased sediment accumulation in the northern lakes, and increased accretion rates on the banks. In addition to the sedimentological variations in the central portion of the bay, there was significant changes along the northern fringe. Around 1950, the northern fringe of the bay morphed from a fresh water environment to a marine environment. As a result, carbonate production
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Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise : a focus on the mid-atlantic region
2009-01-15
The focus of this product is to identify and review the potential impacts of future sea-level rise based on present scientific understanding. To do so, this product evaluates : several aspects of sea-level rise impacts to the natural environment and ...
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Increasing Resilience Through Engagement In Sea Level Rise Community Science Initiatives.
Chilton, L. A.; Rindge, H.
2017-12-01
Science literate and engaged members of the public, including students, are critical to building climate resilient communities. USC Sea Grant facilitates programs that work to build and strengthen these connections. The Urban Tides Community Science Initiative (Urban Tides) and the Youth Exploring Sea Level Rise Science Program (YESS) engage communities across the boundaries of public engagement, K-12 education, and informal education. YESS is an experiential sea level rise education program that combines classroom learning, field investigations and public presentations. Students explore sea level rise using a new curricula, collect their own data on sea level rise, develop communication products, and present their findings to city governments, researchers, and others. Urban Tides engages community members, informal education centers, K-12 students, and local government leaders in a citizen science program photo- documenting extreme high tides, erosion and coastal flooding in Southern California. Images provide critical information to help calibrate scientific models used to identify locations vulnerable to damage from future sea level rise. These tools and information enable community leaders and local governments to set priorities, guidelines, and update policies as they plan strategies that will help the region adapt. The program includes a mobile app for data collection, an open database to view photos, a lesson plan, and community beach walks. Urban Tides has led to an increase in data and data-gathering capacity for regional scientists, an increase in public participation in science, and an increase in ocean and climate literacy among initiative participants. Both of these programs bring informed and diverse voices into the discussion of how to adapt and build climate resilient communities. USC Sea Grant will share impacts and lessons learned from these two unique programs.
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Carr, J. A.; Mariotti, G.; Wiberg, P.; Fagherazzi, S.; McGlathery, K.
2013-12-01
an eventual lateral equilibrium are possible only with large allochthonous sediment supply. Once marshes expanded, marsh retreat can be prevented by a sediment supply smaller than the one that filled the basin. At the GCE, the Altamaha River allows for enhanced allochthonous supply directly to the salt marsh platform, reducing the importance of waves on the tidal flat. As a result, infilling or retreat become the prevalent behaviors. For the VCR, the presence of seagrass decreases near bed shear stresses and sediment flux to the salt marsh platform, however, seagrass also reduces the wave energy acting on the boundary of the marsh reducing boundary erosion. Results indicate that the reduction in wave power allows for seagrass to provide a strong stabilizing affect on the coupled salt marsh tidal flat system, but as external sediment supply increases and light conditions decline the system reverts to that of a bare tidal flat. Across all systems and with current rates of sea level rise, retreat is a more likely marsh loss modality than drowning.
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Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule
Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Pilkey, Orrin H.
2004-11-01
In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the "Bruun Rule". This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid. Several assumptions behind the Bruun Rule are known to be false and nowhere has the Bruun Rule been adequately proven; on the contrary several studies disprove it in the field. No universally applicable model of shoreline retreat under sea-level rise has yet been developed. Despite this, the Bruun Rule is in widespread contemporary use at a global scale both as a management tool and as a scientific concept. The persistence of this concept beyond its original assumption base is attributed to the following factors: Appeal of a simple, easy to use analytical model that is in widespread use. Difficulty of determining the relative validity of 'proofs' and 'disproofs'. Ease of application. Positive advocacy by some scientists. Application by other scientists without critical appraisal. The simple numerical expression of the model. Lack of easy alternatives. The Bruun Rule has no power for predicting shoreline behaviour under rising sea level and should be abandoned. It is a concept whose time has passed. The belief by policy makers that it offers a prediction of future shoreline position may well have stifled much
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Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise
Woodroffe, CD; Rogers, K.; Mckee, Karen L.; Lovelock, CE; Mendelssohn, IA; Saintilan, N.
2016-01-01
Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions influence mangrove distributions, primarily related to elevation and hydroperiod; this review considers how these adjust through time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks; tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon, but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon measurements (SET-MH) provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.
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Mangrove Sedimentation and Response to Relative Sea-Level Rise.
Woodroffe, C D; Rogers, K; McKee, K L; Lovelock, C E; Mendelssohn, I A; Saintilan, N
2016-01-01
Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions, related primarily to elevation and hydroperiod, influence mangrove distributions; this review considers how these distributions change over time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks, and tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas measurements made using surface elevation tables and marker horizons provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in a continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.
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Future rise of the sea level: consequences and strategies on the shoreline
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Teisson, C.
1991-11-01
The Mean Sea Level may rise in a near future due to the warming of the atmosphere associated with the 'greenhouse effect'. The alarming estimations issued in the 1980's (several meters of surelevation in the next centuries) are now lowered: the ice sheets, the melting of which could induce such a rise, do not present signs of instability. A rise from 30 to 50 cm is likely to occur in the middle of the next century; there is a probability of 25% that the rise of sea level relative to the year 1980 stands beyond 1 meter by 2100. The consequences of such a rise on the shoreline and the maritime works are reviewed, and planning strategies are discussed. This study has been performed in the framework of a convention between EDF-LNH and the Sea State Secretary (Service Technique des Ports Maritimes et Voies Navigables) 41 refs., 31 figs., 6 tabs
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Idris, Ahamed H; Bierens, Joost J L M; Perkins, Gavin D; Wenzel, Volker; Nadkarni, Vinay; Morley, Peter; Warner, David S; Topjian, Alexis; Venema, Allart M; Branche, Christine M; Szpilman, David; Morizot-Leite, Luiz; Nitta, Masahiko; Løfgren, Bo; Webber, Jonathon; Gräsner, Jan-Thorsten; Beerman, Stephen B; Youn, Chun Song; Jost, Ulrich; Quan, Linda; Dezfulian, Cameron; Handley, Anthony J; Hazinski, Mary Fran
2017-09-01
Utstein-style guidelines use an established consensus process, endorsed by the international resuscitation community, to facilitate and structure resuscitation research and publication. The first "Guidelines for Uniform Reporting of Data From Drowning" were published over a decade ago. During the intervening years, resuscitation science has advanced considerably, thus making revision of the guidelines timely. In particular, measurement of cardiopulmonary resuscitation elements and neurological outcomes reporting have advanced substantially. The purpose of this report is to provide updated guidelines for reporting data from studies of resuscitation from drowning. An international group with scientific expertise in the fields of drowning research, resuscitation research, emergency medical services, public health, and development of guidelines met in Potsdam, Germany, to determine the data that should be reported in scientific articles on the subject of resuscitation from drowning. At the Utstein-style meeting, participants discussed data elements in detail, defined the data, determined data priority, and decided how data should be reported, including scoring methods and category details. The template for reporting data from drowning research was revised extensively, with new emphasis on measurement of quality of resuscitation, neurological outcomes, and deletion of data that have proved to be less relevant or difficult to capture. The report describes the consensus process, rationale for selecting data elements to be reported, definitions and priority of data, and scoring methods. These guidelines are intended to improve the clarity of scientific communication and the comparability of scientific investigations. Copyright © 2017 European Resuscitation Council, American Heart Association, Inc. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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US power plant sites at risk of future sea-level rise
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bierkandt, R; Levermann, A; Auffhammer, M
2015-01-01
Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by about 1 meter during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. We compute the power capacity that is currently out-of-reach of a 100-year coastal flooding but will be exposed to such a flood by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additional exposed capacity varies strongly among states. For Delaware it is 80% of the mean generated power load. For New York this number is 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: proposed and planned power plants are less exposed than those which are currently operating. However, power plants that have been retired or canceled were less exposed than those operating at present. If sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise may be costly but possible. (letter)
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Effective inundation of continental United States communities with 21st century sea level rise
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kristina A. Dahl
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Recurrent, tidally driven coastal flooding is one of the most visible signs of sea level rise. Recent studies have shown that such flooding will become more frequent and extensive as sea level continues to rise, potentially altering the landscape and livability of coastal communities decades before sea level rise causes coastal land to be permanently inundated. In this study, we identify US communities that will face effective inundation—defined as having 10% or more of livable land area flooded at least 26 times per year—with three localized sea level rise scenarios based on projections for the 3rd US National Climate Assessment. We present these results in a new, online interactive tool that allows users to explore when and how effective inundation will impact their communities. In addition, we identify communities facing effective inundation within the next 30 years that contain areas of high socioeconomic vulnerability today using a previously published vulnerability index. With the Intermediate-High and Highest sea level rise scenarios, 489 and 668 communities, respectively, would face effective inundation by the year 2100. With these two scenarios, more than half of communities facing effective inundation by 2045 contain areas of current high socioeconomic vulnerability. These results highlight the timeframes that US coastal communities have to respond to disruptive future inundation. The results also underscore the importance of limiting future warming and sea level rise: under the Intermediate-Low scenario, used as a proxy for sea level rise under the Paris Climate Agreement, 199 fewer communities would be effectively inundated by 2100.
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Impacts of climate change and sea level rise to Danish near shore ecosystems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vestergaard, P.
2001-01-01
Salt marshes and sand dunes are important types of coastal, terrestrial nature, which like other terrestrial ecosystems will be sensible to the future changes in climate, which have been predicted. Due to the processes acting in their morphogenesis and in the development and composition of their ecosystems, they will not least be influenced by sea level rise. Especially a strong impact of a sea level rise of about 50 cm (midrange of the projected global sea level rise) for the next century can be expected on Danish salt marshes, considering their limited vertical range (50-100 cm). (LN)
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Stachon, Peter; Kalbhenn, Johannes; Walterspacher, Stephan; Bode, Christoph; Staudacher, Dawid
2017-04-01
Introduction Drowning with submersion over 10 minutes is associated with a high mortality. Here, we present a case, in which a good neurological outcome was achieved after interdisciplinary, intensive care therapy despite submersion of 20 minutes followed by 16 hours of hypoxia. History A 19 year old man drowned in fresh-water. After 20 minutes submersion he was localized and salvaged from 8 meters depth and primarily resuscitated successfully after 10 minutes. Within the next hour, there condition worsened by respiratory deterioration due to a massive capillary leak syndrome in addition to a disseminated intravascular coagulation. Treatment This made implantation of a veno-venous ECMO (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) therapy necessary. Despite intensive care medicine including extracorporeal therapy a sufficient oxygenation (arterial pO 2 > 60 mmHg) was reached only 16 hours after the drowning. Clinical Course During this time the patient was treated with a mild therapeutic hypothermia for cerebral protection. Despite the prolonged hypoxia, ECMO could be removed five days after the drowning and the patient was extubated after another five days without significant neurological deficits. Conclusion Despite submersion of 20 minutes followed by prolonged hypoxia, a good neurological outcome could be achieved in our patient. This case suggests, that tolerance of hypoxia is possibly underestimated after drowning. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
You-Xin Fang
Full Text Available Psychiatric disorders exhibited in 13% suicidal drownings in Southwestern Croatia and 63% in Milan, but in China is unknown. This study is committed to outline the feature of a suicidal drowning with psychiatric disorder, show mental status and reveal key factor to high incidence in China. Immersed corpses were handled by SPSBMPH in its jurisdiction range. Half of immersed corpses were suicidal, and nearly half of suicides had psychiatric disorders. 104 suicidal drownings with psychiatric disorders cases from 2010.1 to 2014.6 were reviewed (21.5% of all immersed corpses, 42.1% of suicides. Most victims clothed normally, and only 2 fastened attached weights. Male victims were more and younger than female. Psycho were prone to commit suicidal drowning in warm and hot season. Psycho were prone to choose familiar area to commit suicide, 45 decedents were found in their familiar areas. Suicidal drowings were occult without suicide attempts, suicide note or abnormal clothing, but showed abnormal mental or behavior changes prior to suicide. The three leading psychiatric disorders were depression (33.7%, depression status (30.8% and schizophrenia (20.2%. Only 44.2% decedents had visited psychiatric disorder specialist, and merely less than 10% patients could adhere to regular medication. No regular medication on psychiatric disorder was the key factor contributing to high incidence of suicide in psycho. Professional psychiatric and psychological intervention should be taken as soon as possible when they had psychiatric symptoms or suffered misfortune. Guardians should be alert to patients' abnormality to detect their suicidal ideation and intervene, especially in warm season.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eileen Pollard
2017-12-01
Full Text Available A ‘drowned’ or flooded village describes the destruction of a settlement or community to make way for a reservoir; as a practice, it most commonly occurred in Britain during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries when the need for fresh water in growing industrial cities was at its height. This essay will explore three different representations of the ‘drowned village’ in contemporary British fiction. Reginald Hill’s On Beulah Height (1992, Hilary Mantel’s short story ‘The Clean Slate’ (2001 and Sarah Hall’s Haweswater (2002 will all be considered in terms of how the drowned village is presented and described, and what this representation suggests about the ways nostalgia, ritual and ruin impact upon notions of community and place.
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[Post nearly Drowning Vibrio alginolyticus Septicemia Acquired in Reunion (Indian Ocean)].
Gaüzère, B-A; Chanareille, P; Vandroux, D
2016-08-01
AbstractWe report the first case of Vibrio alginolyticus septicemia in the Indian Ocean (Reunion Island), in a patient (70-year-old-man) with multiple underlying conditions, following a nearly drowning in the lagoon of Reunion. From now on, V. alginolyticus should be considered as a possible agent of septicemia in the Indian Ocean, particularly following marine activities.
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Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast
Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.
2013-01-01
The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.
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Implications of sea-level rise in a modern carbonate ramp setting
Lokier, Stephen W.; Court, Wesley M.; Onuma, Takumi; Paul, Andreas
2018-03-01
This study addresses a gap in our understanding of the effects of sea-level rise on the sedimentary systems and morphological development of recent and ancient carbonate ramp settings. Many ancient carbonate sequences are interpreted as having been deposited in carbonate ramp settings. These settings are poorly-represented in the Recent. The study documents the present-day transgressive flooding of the Abu Dhabi coastline at the southern shoreline of the Arabian/Persian Gulf, a carbonate ramp depositional system that is widely employed as a Recent analogue for numerous ancient carbonate systems. Fourteen years of field-based observations are integrated with historical and recent high-resolution satellite imagery in order to document and assess the onset of flooding. Predicted rates of transgression (i.e. landward movement of the shoreline) of 2.5 m yr- 1 (± 0.2 m yr- 1) based on global sea-level rise alone were far exceeded by the flooding rate calculated from the back-stepping of coastal features (10-29 m yr- 1). This discrepancy results from the dynamic nature of the flooding with increased water depth exposing the coastline to increased erosion and, thereby, enhancing back-stepping. A non-accretionary transgressive shoreline trajectory results from relatively rapid sea-level rise coupled with a low-angle ramp geometry and a paucity of sediments. The flooding is represented by the landward migration of facies belts, a range of erosive features and the onset of bioturbation. Employing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Church et al., 2013) predictions for 21st century sea-level rise, and allowing for the post-flooding lag time that is typical for the start-up of carbonate factories, it is calculated that the coastline will continue to retrograde for the foreseeable future. Total passive flooding (without considering feedback in the modification of the shoreline) by the year 2100 is calculated to likely be between 340 and 571 m with a flooding rate of 3
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Reconciling projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise
Edwards, Tamsin; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Wernecke, Andreas
2017-04-01
Two recent studies of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise this century had best estimates that differed by an order of magnitude (around 10 cm and 1 m by 2100). The first, Ritz et al. (2015), used a model calibrated with satellite data, giving a 5% probability of exceeding 30cm by 2100 for sea level rise due to Antarctic instability. The second, DeConto and Pollard (2016), used a model evaluated with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level. They did not estimate probabilities, but using a simple assumption here about the distribution shape gives up to a 5% chance of Antarctic contribution exceeding 2.3 m this century with total sea level rise approaching 3 m. If robust, this would have very substantial implications for global adaptation to climate change. How are we to make sense of this apparent inconsistency? How much is down to the data - does the past tell us we will face widespread and rapid Antarctic ice losses in the future? How much is due to the mechanism of rapid ice loss ('cliff failure') proposed in the latter paper, or other parameterisation choices in these low resolution models (GRISLI and PISM, respectively)? How much is due to choices made in the ensemble design and calibration? How do these projections compare with high resolution, grounding line resolving models such as BISICLES? Could we reduce the huge uncertainties in the palaeo-study? Emulation provides a powerful tool for understanding these questions and reconciling the projections. By describing the three numerical ice sheet models with statistical models, we can re-analyse the ensembles and re-do the calibrations under a common statistical framework. This reduces uncertainty in the PISM study because it allows massive sampling of the parameter space, which reduces the sensitivity to reconstructed palaeo-sea level values and also narrows the probability intervals because the simple assumption about distribution shape above is no longer needed. We present reconciled probabilistic
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Sirius Rising 139 AD: Hadrian, Tivoli, and the Tazza Farnese
Aakhus, P. L.
2011-06-01
The heliacal rising of Sirius in 139 AD, intersecting with the beginning of the Egyptian year after an interval of 1461 years, signaled abundant fertility derived from the flooding of the Nile and the resurrection of Osiris. Hadrian's preparation for this event, which he did not live to see, at his villa in Tivoli was concurrent with the establishment of the cult of Antinoos assimilated to Osiris, Hermes and Master of the Hounds, following his drowning in the Nile. The site of the obelisk marking Antinoos' tomb and describing his resurrection has recently been discovered near the so-called "Canopus" at Tivoli , where the prominent placement of Demeter/Isis/Sothis and Antinoos/Osiris suggests the rising of Sirius on 20 July 139 AD and flooding of the Nile. Furthermore, this astronomical-cultural event shown on coins and gems of the period, may also be represented in the much debated iconography of the Tazza Farnese, a carved Hellenistic sardonyx libation bowl owned by a prince of Samarkand, Lorenzo de' Medici, and Frederick II, and said to have been found in Hadrian's tomb.
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Obeysekera, J.; Park, J.; Irizarry-Ortiz, M. M.; Barnes, J. A.; Trimble, P.; Said, W.
2010-12-01
Due to flat topography, a highly transmissive groundwater aquifer, and a growing population with the associated infrastructure, South Florida’s coastal environment is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise. Current projections of sea level rise and the associated storm surges will have direct impacts on coastal beaches and infrastructure, flood protection, freshwater aquifers, and both the isolated and regional wetlands. Uncertainties in current projections have made it difficult for regional and local governments to develop adaptation strategies as such measures will depend heavily on the temporal and spatial patterns of sea level rise in the coming decades. We demonstrate the vulnerability of both the built and natural environments of the coastal region and present the current efforts to understand and predict the sea level rise estimate that management agencies could employ in planning of adaptation strategies. In particular, the potential vulnerabilities of the flood control system as well as the threat to the water supply wellfields in the coastal belt will be presented. In an effort to understand the historical variability of sea level rise, we present linkages to natural phenomena such as Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and the analytical methods we have developed to provide probabilistic projections of both mean sea level rise and the extremes.
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Why is the Groundwater Level Rising? A Case Study Using HARTT to Simulate Groundwater Level Dynamic.
Yihdego, Yohannes; Danis, Cara; Paffard, Andrew
2017-12-01
Groundwater from a shallow unconfined aquifer at a site in coastal New South Wales has been causing recent water logging issues. A trend of rising groundwater level has been anecdotally observed over the last 10 years. It was not clear whether the changes in groundwater levels were solely natural variations within the groundwater system or whether human interference was driving the level up. Time series topographic images revealed significant surrounding land use changes and human modification to the environment of the groundwater catchment. A statistical model utilising HARTT (multiple linear regression hydrograph analysis method) simulated the groundwater level dynamics at five key monitoring locations and successfully showed a trend of rising groundwater level. Utilising hydrogeological input from field investigations, the model successfully simulated the rise in the water table over time to the present day levels, whilst taking into consideration rainfall and land changes. The underlying geological/land conditions were found to be just as significant as the impact of climate variation. The correlation coefficient for the monitoring bores (MB), excluding MB4, show that the groundwater level fluctuation can be explained by the climate variable (rainfall) with the lag time between the atypical rainfall and groundwater level ranging from 4 to 7 months. The low R2 value for MB4 indicates that there are factors missing in the model which are primarily related to human interference. The elevated groundwater levels in the affected area are the result of long term cumulative land use changes, instigated by humans, which have directly resulted in detrimental changes to the groundwater aquifer properties.
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Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Action
Gill, K. M.; Huang, T.; Quach, N. T.; Boening, C.
2016-12-01
NASA's Sea Level Change Portal provides scientists and the general public with "one-stop" source for current sea level change information and data. Sea Level Rise research is a multidisciplinary research and in order to understand its causes, scientists must be able to access different measurements and to be able to compare them. The portal includes an interactive tool, called the Data Analysis Tool (DAT), for accessing, visualizing, and analyzing observations and models relevant to the study of Sea Level Rise. Using NEXUS, an open source, big data analytic technology developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the DAT is able provide user on-the-fly data analysis on all relevant parameters. DAT is composed of three major components: A dedicated instance of OnEarth (a WMTS service), NEXUS deep data analytic platform, and the JPL Common Mapping Client (CMC) for web browser based user interface (UI). Utilizing the global imagery, a user is capable of browsing the data in a visual manner and isolate areas of interest for further study. The interfaces "Analysis" tool provides tools for area or point selection, single and/or comparative dataset selection, and a range of options, algorithms, and plotting. This analysis component utilizes the Nexus cloud computing platform to provide on-demand processing of the data within the user-selected parameters and immediate display of the results. A RESTful web API is exposed for users comfortable with other interfaces and who may want to take advantage of the cloud computing capabilities. This talk discuss how DAT enables on-the-fly sea level research. The talk will introduce the DAT with an end-to-end tour of the tool with exploration and animating of available imagery, a demonstration of comparative analysis and plotting, and how to share and export data along with images for use in publications/presentations. The session will cover what kind of data is available, what kind of analysis is possible, and what are the outputs.
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The initial rise method extended to multiple trapping levels in thermoluminescent materials
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Furetta, C. [CICATA-Legaria, Instituto Politecnico Nacional, 11500 Mexico D.F. (Mexico); Guzman, S. [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, A.P. 70-543, 04510 Mexico D.F. (Mexico); Ruiz, B. [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, A.P. 70-543, 04510 Mexico D.F. (Mexico); Departamento de Agricultura y Ganaderia, Universidad de Sonora, A.P. 305, 83190 Hermosillo, Sonora (Mexico); Cruz-Zaragoza, E., E-mail: ecruz@nucleares.unam.m [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, A.P. 70-543, 04510 Mexico D.F. (Mexico)
2011-02-15
The well known Initial Rise Method (IR) is commonly used to determine the activation energy when only one glow peak is presented and analysed in the phosphor materials. However, when the glow peak is more complex, a wide peak and some holders appear in the structure. The application of the Initial Rise Method is not valid because multiple trapping levels are considered and then the thermoluminescent analysis becomes difficult to perform. This paper shows the case of a complex glow curve structure as an example and shows that the calculation is also possible using the IR method. The aim of the paper is to extend the well known Initial Rise Method (IR) to the case of multiple trapping levels. The IR method is applied to minerals extracted from Nopal cactus and Oregano spices because the thermoluminescent glow curve's shape suggests a trap distribution instead of a single trapping level.
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The initial rise method extended to multiple trapping levels in thermoluminescent materials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Furetta, C.; Guzman, S.; Ruiz, B.; Cruz-Zaragoza, E.
2011-01-01
The well known Initial Rise Method (IR) is commonly used to determine the activation energy when only one glow peak is presented and analysed in the phosphor materials. However, when the glow peak is more complex, a wide peak and some holders appear in the structure. The application of the Initial Rise Method is not valid because multiple trapping levels are considered and then the thermoluminescent analysis becomes difficult to perform. This paper shows the case of a complex glow curve structure as an example and shows that the calculation is also possible using the IR method. The aim of the paper is to extend the well known Initial Rise Method (IR) to the case of multiple trapping levels. The IR method is applied to minerals extracted from Nopal cactus and Oregano spices because the thermoluminescent glow curve's shape suggests a trap distribution instead of a single trapping level.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zemedagegnehu, E.; Travi, Y.; Aggarwal, P.
1999-01-01
Water level in Lake Beskea, located in the Ethiopian Rift Valley, has been rising continuously for the last about 30 years. The surface area of the lake has increased from about 6 Km 2 to the present 40 Km 2 and has posed serious problems for environmental management, including inundation of grazing and cultivated lands and, potentially, railway tracks. Historically, the lake received recharge from precipitation, surface runoff in the catchment, groundwater discharge, surface runoff from nearby thermal springs. As the lake levels have risen, the thermal springs are now submerged. An increase in the discharge form these thermal springs may be the original cause of lake water rise, or they may have been submerged as a result of the rising water level. An initial study conducted in the 1970s attributed the rising lake levels to increased runoff from adjoining irrigated areas. However, stricter controls on irrigation runoff failed to check the rising lake levels. A multi-disciplinary study, including geophysical, hydrological, geochemical, isotopic, and modeling techniques was then initiated to determine the cause(s) of lake level rise. Results of piezometric and geophysical surveys indicate that the principal cause of rising water levels may be the increased inflow from submerged springs in the southwestern portion of the lake
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Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Bábek, O.; Přikryl, T.; Hladil, Jindřich
2007-01-01
Roč. 53, č. 2 (2007), s. 293-316 ISSN 0172-9179 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30130516 Keywords : Devonian carbonate platform drowning * Frasnian/Famennian extinction * carbonate platform drowning Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 0.989, year: 2007
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Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Darwin, R.F.; Tol, R.S.J.
2001-01-01
Regional estimates of direct cost (DC) are commonly used to measure the economic damages of sea level rise. Such estimates suffer from three limitations: (1) values of threatened endowments are not well known, (2) loss of endowments does not affect consumer prices, and (3) international trade is disregarded. Results in this paper indicate that these limitations can significantly affect economic assessments of sea level rise. Current uncertainty regarding endowment values (as reflected in two alternative data sets), for example, leads to a 17 percent difference in coastal protection, a 36 percent difference in the amount of land protected, and a 36 percent difference in DC globally. Also, global losses in equivalent variation (EV), a welfare measure that accounts for price changes, are 13 percent higher than DC estimates. Regional EV losses may be up to 10 percent lower than regional DC, however, because international trade tends to redistribute losses from regions with relatively high damages to regions with relatively low damages. 43 refs
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Methods and problems in assessing the impacts of accelerated sea-level rise
Nicholls, Robert J.; Dennis, Karen C.; Volonte, Claudio R.; Leatherman, Stephen P.
1992-06-01
Accelerated sea-level rise is one of the more certain responses to global warming and presents a major challenge to mankind. However, it is important to note that sea-level rise is only manifest over long timescales (decades to centuries). Coastal scientists are increasingly being called upon to assess the physical, economic and societal impacts of sea-level rise and hence investigate appropriate response strategies. Such assessments are difficult in many developing countries due to a lack of physical, demographic and economic data. In particular, there is a lack of appropriate topographic information for the first (physical) phase of the analysis. To overcome these difficulties we have developed a new rapid and low-cost reconnaissance technique: ``aerial videotape-assisted vulnerability analysis'' (AVA). It involves: 1) videotaping the coastline from a small airplane; 2) limited ground-truth measurements; and 3) archive research. Combining the video record with the ground-truth information characterizes the coastal topography and, with an appropriate land loss model, estimates of the physical impact for different sea-level rise scenarios can be made. However, such land loss estimates raise other important questions such as the appropriate seaward limit of the beach profile. Response options also raise questions such as the long-term costs of seawalls. Therefore, realistic low and high estiimates were developed. To illustrate the method selected results from Senegal, Uruguay and Venezuela are presented.
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A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.
Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H
2016-02-12
Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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A framework to investigate the economic growth impact of sea level rise
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hallegatte, Stéphane
2012-01-01
This article reviews the channels through which sea level rise can affect economic growth, namely the loss of land, the loss of infrastructure and physical capital, the loss of social capital, the additional cost from extreme events and coastal floods, and the increased expenditure for coastal protection. It discusses how existing studies on the direct impact of sea level rise could be used to investigate the resulting consequences on economic growth, emphasizes research needs on this question, and discusses consequences on migration. (letter)
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Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology - for posting on website
Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats incl...
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The initial rise method extended to multiple trapping levels in thermoluminescent materials.
Furetta, C; Guzmán, S; Ruiz, B; Cruz-Zaragoza, E
2011-02-01
The well known Initial Rise Method (IR) is commonly used to determine the activation energy when only one glow peak is presented and analysed in the phosphor materials. However, when the glow peak is more complex, a wide peak and some holders appear in the structure. The application of the Initial Rise Method is not valid because multiple trapping levels are considered and then the thermoluminescent analysis becomes difficult to perform. This paper shows the case of a complex glow curve structure as an example and shows that the calculation is also possible using the IR method. The aim of the paper is to extend the well known Initial Rise Method (IR) to the case of multiple trapping levels. The IR method is applied to minerals extracted from Nopal cactus and Oregano spices because the thermoluminescent glow curve's shape suggests a trap distribution instead of a single trapping level. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century: Will projections ever become reliable?
Willis, J. K.
2014-12-01
Global sea level rise has the potential to become one of the most costly and least well predicted impacts of human caused climate change. Unlike global surface temperature, the spread of possible scenarios (as little as 1 foot and as much as 6 feet by 2100) is not due to uncertainty about future rates of greenhouse gas emissions, but rather by a fundamental lack of knowledge about how the major ice sheets will behave in a warming climate. Clearly improved projections of sea level rise should become a major research priority in the next decade. At present, controversial techniques based on comparison with historical analogs and rates of recent warming and sea level rise are often used to create projections for the 21st Century. However, many in the scientific community feel that reliable projections must be based on a sound knowledge of the physics governing sea level rise, and particularly ice sheet behavior. In particular, large portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet rest on solid earth that sits below sea level. These regions may be threatened, not by atmospheric warming or changes in precipitation, but rather by direct forcing from the ocean. Fledgling efforts to understand these ocean ice interactions are already underway, as are efforts to make improved models of ice sheet behavior. However a great deal of work is still needed before widely accepted projections of sea level rise become a reality. This paper will highlight the hurdles to making such projections today and suggest ways forward in this critical area of research.
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A Social Marketing Intervention to Prevent Drowning Among Inner-City Youth.
Glassman, Tavis J; Castor, Tom; Karmakar, Monita; Blavos, Alexis; Dagenhard, Paige; Domigan, Julianne; Sweeney, Erin; Diehr, Aaron; Kucharewski, Ruthie
2018-03-01
Water-related injuries and fatalities pose serious public health issues, especially to African American youth, a demographic group that drowns at disproportionately high rates. The purpose of this study was to determine if a social marketing intervention targeting the parents and guardians of inner-city youth (U.S. Midwest) could positively influence their perceptions concerning water safety. Researchers employed a quasi-experimental design using matched pairs to evaluate the intervention. Participants consisted of parents who enrolled their children in a six-session survival-swimming course. Guided by the Health Belief Model, the researchers disseminated six prevention messages using six different channels (brochure, e-mail, SMS text message, postcard, Facebook, and window cling). The findings from a two-way analysis of covariance revealed that treatment group participants' knowledge and perceptions of water-related threat all changed favorably. Additionally, all participants planned to reenroll their children in swim lessons. A social marketing campaign using the Health Belief Model improved inner-city parents' knowledge regarding water safety and enhanced their self-efficacy. This study provides practitioners with feasible strategies (prevention messages) to supplement swim lessons, with the ultimate goal of preventing drowning among at-risk youth.
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Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level
Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Morris, James T.; Mudd, Simon M.; Temmerman, Stijn
2010-01-01
Assumptions of a static landscape inspire predictions that about half of the world's coastal wetlands will submerge during this century in response to sea-level acceleration. In contrast, we use simulations from five numerical models to quantify the conditions under which ecogeomorphic feedbacks allow coastal wetlands to adapt to projected changes in sea level. In contrast to previous sea-level assessments, we find that non-linear feedbacks among inundation, plant growth, organic matter accretion, and sediment deposition, allow marshes to survive conservative projections of sea-level rise where suspended sediment concentrations are greater than ~20 mg/L. Under scenarios of more rapid sea-level rise (e.g., those that include ice sheet melting), marshes will likely submerge near the end of the 21st century. Our results emphasize that in areas of rapid geomorphic change, predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change requires consideration of the ability of biological processes to modify their physical environment.
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Spatial Hedonic Models for Measuring the Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Real Estate
Okmyung Bin; Ben Poulter; Christopher F. Dumas; John C. Whitehead
2009-01-01
This study uses a unique integration of geospatial and hedonic property data to estimate the impact of sea-level rise on coastal real estate in North Carolina. North Carolina’s coastal plain is one of several large terrestrial systems around the world threatened by rising sea-levels. High-resolution topographic LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data are used to provide accurate inundation maps for all properties that will be at risk under six different sea-level rise scenarios. A simulation...
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The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dasgupta, S. [World Bank, Washington, DC (United States)
2008-07-01
Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. In this paper, Geographic Information System software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP, to assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Estimates suggest that even a one-meter rise in sea level in coastal countries of the developing world would submerge 194,000 square kilometers of land area, and turn at least 56 million people into environmental refugees. At the country level results are extremely skewed.
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The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dasgupta, Susmita (World Bank, Washington, DC (United States))
2008-07-01
Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. In this paper, Geographic Information System software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP, to assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Estimates suggest that even a one-meter rise in sea level in coastal countries of the developing world would submerge 194,000 square kilometers of land area, and turn at least 56 million people into environmental refugees. At the country level results are extremely skewed
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The Potential Effect of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Property Values
O'Donnell, J.
2015-12-01
It is well established that one consequence of increasing global sea level is that the frequency of flooding at low-lying coastal sites will increase. We review recent evidence that the effects coastal geometry will create substantial spatial variations in the changes in flooding frequency with scales of order 100km. Using a simple model of the evolution of coastal property values we demonstrate that a consequence of sea level rise is that the appreciation of coastal properties will peak, and then decline relative to higher properties. The time when the value reach a maximum is shown to depend upon the demand for the coastal property, and the local rate of change of flooding frequency due to sea level rise. The simple model is then extended to include, in an elementary manner, the effects on the value of adjacent but higher properties. We show that the effect of increased flooding frequency of the lower properties leads to an accelerated appreciation of the value of upland properties and an accelerated decline in the value of the coastal properties. We then provide some example calculations for selected sites. We conclude with a discussion of comparisons of the prediction of the analyses to recent data, and then comments on the impact of sea level rise on tax base of coastal communities.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rachael Leek
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Scedosporium spp. are saprobic fungi that cause serious infections in immunocompromised hosts and in near-drowning victims. Solid organ transplant recipients are at increased risk of scedosporiosis as they require aggressive immunosuppression to prevent allograft rejection. We present a case of disseminated Scedosporium apiospermum infection occurring in the recipient of a combined kidney and liver transplantation whose organs were donated by a near-drowning victim and review the literature of scedosporiosis in solid organ transplantation.
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Implications of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Flood Hazards
Roeber, V.; Li, N.; Cheung, K.; Lane, P.; Evans, R. L.; Donnelly, J. P.; Ashton, A. D.
2012-12-01
Recent global and local projections suggest the sea level will be on the order of 1 m or higher than the current level by the end of the century. Coastal communities and ecosystems in low-lying areas are vulnerable to impacts resulting from hurricane or large swell events in combination with sea-level rise. This study presents the implementation and results of an integrated numerical modeling package to delineate coastal inundation due to storm landfalls at future sea levels. The modeling package utilizes a suite of numerical models to capture both large-scale phenomena in the open ocean and small-scale processes in coastal areas. It contains four components to simulate (1) meteorological conditions, (2) astronomical tides and surge, (3) wave generation, propagation, and nearshore transformation, and (4) surf-zone processes and inundation onto dry land associated with a storm event. Important aspects of this package are the two-way coupling of a spectral wave model and a storm surge model as well as a detailed representation of surf and swash zone dynamics by a higher-order Boussinesq-type wave model. The package was validated with field data from Hurricane Ivan of 2005 on the US Gulf coast and applied to tropical and extratropical storm scenarios respectively at Eglin, Florida and Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. The results show a nonlinear increase of storm surge level and nearshore wave energy with a rising sea level. The exacerbated flood hazard can have major consequences for coastal communities with respect to erosion and damage to infrastructure.
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Rodriguez, J. F.; Saco, P. M.; Sandi, S. G.; Saintilan, N.; Riccardi, G.
2017-12-01
Even though on a large scale the sustainability and resilience of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise depends on the slope of the landscape and a balance between the rates of soil accretion and the sea-level rise, local man-made flow disturbances can have comparable effects. Coastal infrastructure controlling flow in the wetlands can pose an additional constraint on the adaptive capacity of these ecosystems, but can also present opportunities for targeted flow management to increase their resilience. Coastal wetlands in SE Australia are heavily managed and typically present infrastructure including flow control devices. How these flow control structures are operated respond to different ecological conservation objectives (i.e. bird, frog or fish habitat) that can sometimes be mutually exclusive. For example, promoting mangrove establishment to enhance fish habitat results in saltmarsh decline thus affecting bird habitat. Moreover, sea-level rise will change hydraulic conditions in wetlands and may result in some flow control structures and strategies becoming obsolete or even counterproductive. In order to address these problems and in support of future management of flows in coastal wetlands, we have developed a predictive tool for long-term wetland evolution that incorporates the effects of infrastructure and other perturbations to the tidal flow within the wetland (i.e. vegetation resistance) and determines how these flow conditions affect vegetation establishment and survival. We use the model to support management and analyse different scenarios of sea-level rise and flow control measures aimed at preserving bird habitat. Our results show that sea-level rise affects the efficiency of management measures and in some cases may completely override their effect. It also shows the potential of targeted flow management to compensate for the effects of sea-level rise.
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[Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].
Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan
2014-02-01
To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.
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Severe Metabolic Acidosis and Pulmonary Edema: A Near-Drowning Case
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yasemin Çoban
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Drowning is defined as a situation which results in the death of the patient within the first 24 hours, while “near-drowning” refers to all conditions of submersion which does not cause death but brings about morbidity and damaging effects. A twenty-five-month-old boy was found immobile in a bathtub filled with water. The patient was transported to the intensive care unit from the emergency department where he vas ventilated with a bag-mask, then intubated, and diagnosed with respiratory insufficiency, and his respiration was supported by mechanical ventilator. Physical examination of the patient showed that he was hypothermic, not breathing spontaneously, his heart rate was 120/min., blood pressure 100/80 mmHg, he was unconscious, and Glasgow Coma scale was 5. The first blood analysis results were mmol/L. The pulmonary edema regressed, cardiopulmonary hemodynamic returned to normal. Then, at the 48th hour he was weaned from mechanical ventilator support. The patient was discharged from the hospital in good health, without negative cognitive and motor symptoms on the 10th day. The present case report aimed to highlight the importance of basic and advanced life support in cases of near-drowning which happens frequently among children, and to discuss the management of pulmonary edema and other complications.
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Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.
Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T
2018-02-27
Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
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Holocene sea-level changes in the Falkland Islands
Newton, Tom; Gehrels, Roland; Daley, Tim; Long, Antony; Bentley, Mike
2014-05-01
In many locations in the southern hemisphere, relative sea level (RSL) reached its maximum position during the middle Holocene. This highstand is used by models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to constrain the melt histories of the large ice sheets, particularly Antarctica. In this paper we present the first Holocene sea-level record from the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), an archipelago located on the Patagonian continental shelf about 500 km east of mainland South America at a latitude of ca. 52 degrees. Unlike coastal locations in southernmost South America, Holocene sea-level data from the Falklands are not influenced by tectonics, local ice loading effects and large tidal ranges such that GIA and ice-ocean mass flux are the dominant drivers of RSL change. Our study site is a salt marsh located in Swan Inlet in East Falkland, around 50 km southwest of Stanley. This is the largest and best developed salt marsh in the Falkland Islands. Cores were collected in 2005 and 2013. Lithostratigraphic analyses were complemented by analyses of foraminifera, testate amoebae and diatoms to infer palaeoenvironments. The bedrock, a Permian black shale, is overlain by grey-brown organic salt-marsh clay, up to 90 cm thick, which, in a landward direction, is replaced by freshwater organic sediments. Overlying these units are medium-coarse sands with occasional pebbles, up to 115 cm thick, containing tidal flat foraminifera. The sandy unit is erosively overlain by a grey-brown organic salt-marsh peat which extends up to the present surface. Further away from the sea this unit is predominantly of freshwater origin. Based on 13 radiocarbon dates we infer that prior to ~9.5 ka sea level was several metres below present. Under rising sea levels a salt marsh developed which was suddenly drowned around 8.4 ka, synchronous with a sea-level jump known from northern hemisphere locations. Following the drowning, RSL rose to its maximum position around 7 ka, less than 0.5 m above
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Sea Level Rise Impacts on Wastewater Treatment Systems Along the U.S. Coasts
Hummel, Michelle A.; Berry, Matthew S.; Stacey, Mark T.
2018-04-01
As sea levels rise, coastal communities will experience more frequent and persistent nuisance flooding, and some low-lying areas may be permanently inundated. Critical components of lifeline infrastructure networks in these areas are also at risk of flooding, which could cause significant service disruptions that extend beyond the flooded zone. Thus, identifying critical infrastructure components that are exposed to sea level rise is an important first step in developing targeted investment in protective actions and enhancing the overall resilience of coastal communities. Wastewater treatment plants are typically located at low elevations near the coastline to minimize the cost of collecting consumed water and discharging treated effluent, which makes them particularly susceptible to coastal flooding. For this analysis, we used geographic information systems to assess the exposure of wastewater infrastructure to various sea level rise projections at the national level. We then estimated the number of people who would lose wastewater services, which could be more than five times as high as previous predictions of the number of people at risk of direct flooding due to sea level rise. We also performed a regional comparison of wastewater exposure to marine and groundwater flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area. Overall, this analysis highlights the widespread exposure of wastewater infrastructure in the United States and demonstrates that local disruptions to infrastructure networks may have far-ranging impacts on areas that do not experience direct flooding.
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Sea level rise impacts on wastewater treatment systems along the U.S. coasts
Hummel, M.; Berry, M.; Stacey, M. T.
2017-12-01
As sea levels rise, coastal communities will experience more frequent and persistent nuisance flooding, and some low-lying areas may be permanently inundated. Critical components of lifeline infrastructure networks in these areas are also at risk of flooding, which could cause significant service disruptions that extend beyond the flooded zone. Thus, identifying critical infrastructure components that are vulnerable to sea level rise is an important first step in developing targeted investment in protective actions and enhancing the overall resilience of coastal communities. Wastewater treatment plants are typically located at low elevations near the coastline to minimize the cost of collecting consumed water and discharging treated effluent, which makes them particularly susceptible to coastal flooding. For this analysis, we used geographic information systems to assess the vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure to various sea level rise projections at the national level. We then estimated the number of people who would lose wastewater services, which could be more than three times as high as previous predictions of the number of people at risk of direct flooding due to sea level rise. We also considered several case studies of wastewater infrastructure in mid-sized cities to determine how topography and system configuration (centralized versus distributed) impact vulnerability. Overall, this analysis highlights the widespread vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure in the U.S. and demonstrates that local disruptions to infrastructure networks may have far-ranging impacts on areas that do not experience direct flooding.
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Clinton, J.
2017-12-01
Much of Hawaii's history is recorded in archeological sites. Researchers and cultural practitioners have been studying and reconstructing significant archeological sites for generations. Climate change, and more specifically, sea level rise may threaten these sites. Our research records current sea levels and then projects possible consequences to these cultural monuments due to sea level rise. In this mixed methods study, research scientists, cultural practitioners, and secondary students use plane-table mapping techniques to create maps of coastlines and historic sites. Students compare historical records to these maps, analyze current sea level rise trends, and calculate future sea levels. They also gather data through interviews with community experts and kupuna (elders). If climate change continues at projected rates, some historic sites will be in danger of negative impact due to sea level rise. Knowing projected sea levels at specific sites allows for preventative action and contributes to raised awareness of the impacts of climate change to the Hawaiian Islands. Students will share results with the community and governmental agencies in hopes of inspiring action to minimize climate change. It will take collaboration between scientists and cultural communities to inspire future action on climate change.
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A simple model to estimate the impact of sea-level rise on platform beaches
Taborda, Rui; Ribeiro, Mónica Afonso
2015-04-01
Estimates of future beach evolution in response to sea-level rise are needed to assess coastal vulnerability. A research gap is identified in providing adequate predictive methods to use for platform beaches. This work describes a simple model to evaluate the effects of sea-level rise on platform beaches that relies on the conservation of beach sand volume and assumes an invariant beach profile shape. In closed systems, when compared with the Inundation Model, results show larger retreats; the differences are higher for beaches with wide berms and when the shore platform develops at shallow depths. The application of the proposed model to Cascais (Portugal) beaches, using 21st century sea-level rise scenarios, shows that there will be a significant reduction in beach width.
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Neves, M. C.; Roque, C.; Luttrell, K. M.; Vázquez, J. T.; Alonso, B.
2016-12-01
Earthquakes and submarine landslides are recurrent and widespread manifestations of fault activity offshore SW Iberia. The present work tests the effects of sea-level rise on offshore fault systems using Coulomb stress change calculations across the Alentejo margin. Large-scale faults capable of generating large earthquakes and tsunamis in the region, especially NE-SW trending thrusts and WNW-ESE trending dextral strike-slip faults imaged at basement depths, are either blocked or unaffected by flexural effects related to sea-level changes. Large-magnitude earthquakes occurring along these structures may, therefore, be less frequent during periods of sea-level rise. In contrast, sea-level rise promotes shallow fault ruptures within the sedimentary sequence along the continental slope and upper rise within distances of failures may either increase (if triggered by shallow fault ruptures) or decrease (if triggered by deep fault ruptures) as a result of sea-level rise. Moreover, observations of slope failures affecting the area of the Sines contourite drift highlight the role of sediment properties as preconditioning factors in this region.
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Sea level rise and variability around Peninsular Malaysia
Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tay, Tze-Wei
2014-05-01
Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea, both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. As a result, sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); whilst long term sea level trend is coordinated by the global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability surrounding the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. Discounting for their vertical land movements (0.8 ± 2.6 mm/yr and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm/yr, respectively), their pure SLR rates are 1.6 ± 3.4 mm/yr and 1.8 ± 2.8 mm/yr, respectively, which are lower than the global tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian east coast in the range of ± 5 cm with very high correlation coefficient. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies in the Malacca Strait in the range of ± 2 cm with high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian - Indian Monsoon; while single
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Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes
Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.
2013-01-01
The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.
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Gesch, Dean B.
2013-01-01
The accuracy with which coastal topography has been mapped directly affects the reliability and usefulness of elevationbased sea-level rise vulnerability assessments. Recent research has shown that the qualities of the elevation data must be well understood to properly model potential impacts. The cumulative vertical uncertainty has contributions from elevation data error, water level data uncertainties, and vertical datum and transformation uncertainties. The concepts of minimum sealevel rise increment and minimum planning timeline, important parameters for an elevation-based sea-level rise assessment, are used in recognition of the inherent vertical uncertainty of the underlying data. These concepts were applied to conduct a sea-level rise vulnerability assessment of the Mobile Bay, Alabama, region based on high-quality lidar-derived elevation data. The results that detail the area and associated resources (land cover, population, and infrastructure) vulnerable to a 1.18-m sea-level rise by the year 2100 are reported as a range of values (at the 95% confidence level) to account for the vertical uncertainty in the base data. Examination of the tabulated statistics about land cover, population, and infrastructure in the minimum and maximum vulnerable areas shows that these resources are not uniformly distributed throughout the overall vulnerable zone. The methods demonstrated in the Mobile Bay analysis provide an example of how to consider and properly account for vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise vulnerability assessments, and the advantages of doing so.
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Ughetto, Estelle; Héry-Arnaud, Geneviève; Cariou, Marie-Estelle; Pelloux, Isabelle; Maurin, Max; Caillon, Jocelyne; Moreau, Philippe; Ygout, Jean-François; Corvec, Stéphane
2015-08-01
We report the first case of Francisella tularensis subsp. holarctica bacteremia after water contamination in France. A 75-year-old man developed septic pneumonic tularemia after a near-drowning accident. We highlight the need for a longer incubation time for isolation of F. tularensis from blood cultures.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Slabe Damjan
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Drowning, being one of the most common causes of death is a public health problem. The concept of the drowning chain of survival puts great emphasis on providing security. Rescuing a drowning person in the stage of impaired judgement is a dangerous action. A rescuer can put at risk their own life at this stage. Health workers are potentially more exposed to this risk. In the field of education of health workers interdisciplinarity is one of the key concepts. Within the subject Basics of the Clinical Medicine and First Aid, we provided students the experience of saving a drowning person in a simulated exercise, thus trying to persuade them to choose safer strategies of rescuing. The subject of our research were students of health sciences. 506 students solved the questionnaire. After having performed a practical exercise of saving a drowning person, students choose less risky strategies of rescuing a person in the stage of impaired judgement. Students thus gain the experience of rescuing drowning people in more difficult circumstances and their awareness of the importance of security increases after the exercise, which helps to reduce the number of lives risked in accidents.
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Young, C. R.; Martin, J. B.
2016-02-01
Assessments of the potential for salt water intrusion due to sea level rise require consideration of both coastal hydrodynamic and human activity thresholds. In siliciclastic systems, sea level rise may cause salt intrusion to coastal aquifers at annual or decadal scales, whereas in karst systems salt intrudes at the tidal scalse. In both cases, human activity impacts the freshwater portion of the system by altering the water demand on the aquifer. We combine physicochemical and human activity data to evaluate impact of sea level rise on salt intrusion to siliclastic (Indian River Lagoon, Fl, USA) and karst (Puerto Morelos, Yucatan, Mexico) systems under different sea level rise rate scenarios. Two hydrodynamic modeling scenarios are considered; flux controlled and head controlled. Under a flux controlled system hydraulic head gradients remain constant during sea level rise while under a head controlled system hydraulic graidents diminish, allowing saltwater intrusion. Our model contains three key terms; aquifer recharge, groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity. Groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity were calculated based on high frequency (karst system) and decadal (siliciclastic system) field measurements. Aquifer recharge is defined as precipitation less evapotranspiration and water demand was evaluated based on urban planning data that provided the regional water demand. Water demand includes agricultural area, toursim, traffic patterns, garbage collection and total population. Water demand was initially estimated using a partial leaset squares regression based on these variables. Our model indicates that water demand depends most on agricultural area, which has changed significantly over the last 30 years. In both systems, additional water demand creates a head controlled scenario, thus increaseing the protential fo salt intrusion with projected sea level rise.
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Fate of water pumped from underground and contributions to sea-level rise
Wada, Yoshihide; Lo, Min-Hui; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.; Wu, Ren-Jie; Tseng, Yu-Heng
2016-08-01
The contributions from terrestrial water sources to sea-level rise, other than ice caps and glaciers, are highly uncertain and heavily debated. Recent assessments indicate that groundwater depletion (GWD) may become the most important positive terrestrial contribution over the next 50 years, probably equal in magnitude to the current contributions from glaciers and ice caps. However, the existing estimates assume that nearly 100% of groundwater extracted eventually ends up in the oceans. Owing to limited knowledge of the pathways and mechanisms governing the ultimate fate of pumped groundwater, the relative fraction of global GWD that contributes to sea-level rise remains unknown. Here, using a coupled climate-hydrological model simulation, we show that only 80% of GWD ends up in the ocean. An increase in runoff to the ocean accounts for roughly two-thirds, whereas the remainder results from the enhanced net flux of precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean, due to increased atmospheric vapour transport from the land to the ocean. The contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise amounted to 0.02 (+/-0.004) mm yr-1 in 1900 and increased to 0.27 (+/-0.04) mm yr-1 in 2000. This indicates that existing studies have substantially overestimated the contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise by a cumulative amount of at least 10 mm during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century. With other terrestrial water contributions included, we estimate the net terrestrial water contribution during the period 1993-2010 to be +0.12 (+/-0.04) mm yr-1, suggesting that the net terrestrial water contribution reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report report is probably overestimated by a factor of three.
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Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Units of the National Park Service (Invited)
Beavers, R. L.
2010-12-01
83 National Park Service (NPS) units contain nearly 12,000 miles of coastal, estuarine and Great Lakes shoreline and their associated resources. Iconic natural features exist along active shorelines in NPS units, including, e.g., Cape Cod, Padre Island, Hawaii Volcanoes, and the Everglades. Iconic cultural resources managed by NPS include the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse, Fort Sumter, the Golden Gate, and heiaus and fish traps along the coast of Hawaii. Impacts anticipated from sea level rise include inundation and flooding of beaches and low lying marshes, shoreline erosion of coastal areas, and saltwater intrusion into the water table. These impacts and other coastal hazards will threaten park beaches, marshes, and other resources and values; alter the viability of coastal roads; and require the NPS to re-evaluate the financial, safety, and environmental implications of maintaining current projects and implementing future projects in ocean and coastal parks in the context of sea level rise. Coastal erosion will increase as sea levels rise. Barrier islands along the coast of Louisiana and North Carolina may have already passed the threshold for maintaining island integrity in any scenario of sea level rise (U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Program Report 4.1). Consequently, sea level rise is expected to hasten the disappearance of historic coastal villages, coastal wetlands, forests, and beaches, and threaten coastal roads, homes, and businesses. While sea level is rising in most coastal parks, some parks are experiencing lower water levels due to isostatic rebound and lower lake levels. NPS funded a Coastal Vulnerability Project to evaluate the physical and geologic factors affecting 25 coastal parks. The USGS Open File Reports for each park are available at http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/. These reports were designed to inform park planning efforts. NPS conducted a Storm Vulnerability Project to provide ocean and coastal
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The Initial Rise Method in the case of multiple trapping levels
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Furetta, C.; Guzman, S.; Cruz Z, E.
2009-10-01
The aim of the paper is to extent the well known Initial Rise Method (IR) to the case of multiple trapping levels. The IR method is applied to the minerals extracted from Nopal herb and Oregano spice because the thermoluminescent glow curves shape suggests a trap distribution instead of a single trapping level. (Author)
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The Initial Rise Method in the case of multiple trapping levels
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Furetta, C. [Centro de Investigacion en Ciencia Aplicada y Tecnologia Avanzada, IPN, Av. Legaria 694, Col. Irrigacion, 11500 Mexico D. F. (Mexico); Guzman, S.; Cruz Z, E. [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, UNAM, A. P. 70-543, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)
2009-10-15
The aim of the paper is to extent the well known Initial Rise Method (IR) to the case of multiple trapping levels. The IR method is applied to the minerals extracted from Nopal herb and Oregano spice because the thermoluminescent glow curves shape suggests a trap distribution instead of a single trapping level. (Author)
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QUANTIFYING REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Diandong Ren
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This study projects the sea level contribution from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS through to 2100, using a recently developed ice dynamics model forced by atmospheric parameters derived from three different climate models (CGCMs. The geographical pattern of the near-surface ice warming imposes a divergent flow field favoring mass loss through enhanced ice flow. The calculated average mass loss rate during the latter half of the 21st century is ~0.64±0.06 mm/year eustatic sea level rise, which is significantly larger than the IPCC AR4 estimate from surface mass balance. The difference is due largely to the positive feedbacks from reduced ice viscosity and the basal sliding mechanism present in the ice dynamics model. This inter-model, inter-scenario spread adds approximately a 20% uncertainty to the IPCC ice model estimates. The sea level rise is geographically non-uniform and reaches 1.69±0.24 mm/year by 2100 for the northeast coastal region of the United States, amplified by the expected weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC. In contrast to previous estimates, which neglected the GrIS fresh water input, both sides of the North Atlantic Gyre are projected to experience sea level rises. The impacts on a selection of major cities on both sides of the Atlantic and in the Pacific and southern oceans also are assessed. The other ocean basins are found to be less affected than the Atlantic Ocean.
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Effects of gravity level on bubble formation and rise in low-viscosity liquids
Suñol, Francesc; González-Cinca, Ricard
2015-05-01
We present an experimental analysis of the effects of gravity level on the formation and rise dynamics of bubbles. Experiments were carried out with millimeter-diameter bubbles in the hypergravity environment provided by the large-diameter centrifuge of the European Space Agency. Bubble detachment from a nozzle is determined by buoyancy and surface tension forces regardless of the gravity level. Immediately after detachment, bubble trajectory is deviated by the Coriolis force. Subsequent bubble rise is dominated by inertial forces and follows a zig-zag trajectory with amplitude and frequency dependent on the gravity level. Vorticity production is enhanced as gravity increases, which destabilizes the flow and therefore the bubble path.
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Can salt marshes survive sea level rise ?
Tambroni, N.; Seminara, G.
2008-12-01
Stability of salt marshes is a very delicate issue depending on the subtle interplay among hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and ecology. In fact, the elevation of the marsh platform depends essentially on three effects: i) the production of soil associated with sediments resuspended by tidal currents and wind waves in the adjacent tidal flats, advected to the marsh and settling therein; ii) production of organic sediments by the salt marsh vegetation; iii) soil 'loss' driven by sea level rise and subsidence. In order to gain insight into the mechanics of the process, we consider a schematic configuration consisting of a salt marsh located at the landward end of a tidal channel connected at the upstream end with a tidal sea, under different scenarios of sea level rise. We extend the simple 1D model for the morphodynamic evolution of a tidal channel formulated by Lanzoni and Seminara (2002, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 107, C1) allowing for sediment resuspension in the channel and vegetation growth in the marsh using the depth dependent model of biomass productivity of Spartina proposed by Morris et al. (2002, Ecology, 83, pp. 2869 - 2877). We first focus on the case of a tide dominated salt marsh neglecting wind driven sediment resuspension in the shoal. Results show that the production of biomass plays a crucial role on salt marsh stability and, provided productivity is high enough, it may turn out to be sufficient to counteract the effects of sea level rise even in the absence of significant supply of mineral sediments. The additional effect of wind resuspension is then introduced. Note that the wind action is twofold: on one hand, it generates wind waves the amplitude of which is strongly dependent on shoal depth and wind fetch; on the other hand, it generates currents driven by the surface setup induced by the shear stress acting on the free surface. Here, each contribution is analysed separately. Results show that the values of bottom stress induced by
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Vermeijden, Wytze J.; de Vries, Hans; Kieboom, Joke; Waterbolk, Tjalling
2006-01-01
We report two drowning victims with hypothermic circulatory arrest who were resuscitated with the use of extracorporeal circulation (ECC). The first patient developed severe post-bypass pulmonary oedema and inspired us to use a leucocyte-depletion filter in the second patient to attenuate
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Doyle, Thomas W.; Chivoiu, Bogdan; Enwright, Nicholas M.
2015-08-24
Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems. The review herein of decision-support tools and predictive models was compiled from the training sessions, from online research, and from publications. The purpose of this guide is to describe and categorize the suite of data, methods, and models and their design, structure, and application for hindcasting and forecasting the potential impacts of sea-level rise in coastal ecosystems. The data and models cover a broad spectrum of disciplines involving different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting environmental change and ecosystem response. These data and models have not heretofore been synthesized, nor have appraisals been made of their utility or limitations. Some models are demonstration tools for non-experts, whereas others require more expert capacity to apply for any given park, refuge, or regional application. A simplified tabular context has been developed to list and contrast a host of decision-support tools and models from the ecological, geological, and hydrological perspectives. Criteria were established to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic datasets; physical and biological constraints and relations; datum characteristics of water and land components
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Effects of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida
Langevin, Christian D.; Zygnerski, Michael
2013-01-01
A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Beatriz Azevedo de Almeida
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Expansive areas of low elevation in many densely populated coastal areas are at elevated risk of storm surges and flooding due to torrential precipitation, as a result of sea level rise. These phenomena could have catastrophic impacts on coastal communities and result in the destruction of critical infrastructure, disruption of economic activities and salt water contamination of the water supply. The objective of the study presented in this paper was to identify various impacts of sea level rise on civil infrastructures in coastal areas and examine the adaptation measures suggested in the existing literature. To this end, a systemic review of the existing literature was conducted in order to identify a repository of studies addressing sea level rise impacts and adaptation measures in the context of infrastructure systems. The study focused on three infrastructure sectors: water and wastewater, energy, and road transportation. The collected information was then analyzed in order to identify different categories of sea level rise impacts and corresponding adaptation measures. The findings of the study are threefold: (1 the major categories of sea level rise impacts on different infrastructure systems; (2 measures for protection, accommodation, and retreat in response to sea level rise impacts; and (3 challenges related to implementing adaptation measures.
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Nuisance Flooding and Relative Sea-Level Rise: the Importance of Present-Day Land Motion.
Karegar, Makan A; Dixon, Timothy H; Malservisi, Rocco; Kusche, Jürgen; Engelhart, Simon E
2017-09-11
Sea-level rise is beginning to cause increased inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. While most of Earth's coastal areas are at risk, areas that will be affected first are characterized by several additional factors. These include regional oceanographic and meteorological effects and/or land subsidence that cause relative sea level to rise faster than the global average. For catastrophic coastal flooding, when wind-driven storm surge inundates large areas, the relative contribution of sea-level rise to the frequency of these events is difficult to evaluate. For small scale "nuisance flooding," often associated with high tides, recent increases in frequency are more clearly linked to sea-level rise and global warming. While both types of flooding are likely to increase in the future, only nuisance flooding is an early indicator of areas that will eventually experience increased catastrophic flooding and land loss. Here we assess the frequency and location of nuisance flooding along the eastern seaboard of North America. We show that vertical land motion induced by recent anthropogenic activity and glacial isostatic adjustment are contributing factors for increased nuisance flooding. Our results have implications for flood susceptibility, forecasting and mitigation, including management of groundwater extraction from coastal aquifers.
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Vetter, L.; Schreiner, K. M.; Rosenheim, B. E.; Tornqvist, T. E.
2016-02-01
Coastal marsh environments perform essential ecosystem services, including nutrient filtering, soil organic matter storage, and storm surge abatement, yet much is still unknown about their formation and fate under periods of sea-level change. During the early Holocene (7-10 ka), rapid sea-level rise in coastal Louisiana was one of the primary controls over marsh development and longevity. Here, we investigate plant community composition and succession and soil organic matter storage in early Holocene coastal marshes in Louisiana using bulk elemental ratios, lignin phenol biomarkers and stable isotopes from peat layers. Sediment cores were collected in southeastern Louisiana and contain a record of an early Holocene transgressive sea-level sequence 16-25 m below present sea-level. The sedimentary record consists of an immature paleosol overlain by basal peat that accumulated in an estuarine marsh, overlain by marine lagoonal muds. A re-established marsh peat is present 1-4 m above the initial transition to marine conditions, indicating a sequence of marsh development, sea-level rise and onset of marine conditions, and then further marsh development as the rate of relative sea-level rise decelerated. Plant community composition in coastal marshes was determined through cupric oxide oxidation and lignin-phenol and non-lignin-phenol biomarker abundances. The degradation state of soil organic matter and the specific source of stabilized organic matter within the sedimentary peats were determined through lignin-phenol biomarker ratios. Organic matter sources ranged from terrestrial to marine over the course of sea-level rise, and different sites showed different amounts of marine organic matter influence and different levels of terrestrial organic matter degradation. These results have important implications for reconstructing the response of coastal marshes and their plant communities to accelerated rates of sea-level rise projected through 2100.
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Reijnen, G; Buster, M C; Vos, P J E; Reijnders, U J L
2017-11-01
Determining the time of death of bodies recovered from water can be difficult. A feature of drowning is the presence of external foam. This study describes the presence of external foam in relation to the post-mortem period. The study utilizes a database of death reports dated between January 2011 and July 2016. For bodies recovered from fresh water, the presence or absence of external foam was noted. In this study, 112 death reports are included. Of these reports, 18 mentioned external foam, which account for 16.1% of the entire study population. In the population with a post-mortem period of less than 24 h, external foam was detected in 27.7% of cases. All 18 incidents with external foam had an estimated post-mortem period of less than 24 h. In our study, external foam was only present in freshwater drowning cases with a post-mortem period of less than 24 h. Based on this finding, the presence of external foam may be useful as an additional indicator when estimating the time of death in freshwater drowning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.
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The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Machguth, H.; Rastner, P.; Bolch, T.
2013-01-01
We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ~90 000 km2) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR...... experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half...... feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity...
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Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.
Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana
2014-06-01
Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†
Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana
2014-01-01
Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370
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van Maanen, Barend; Coco, Giovanni; Bryan, Karin
2016-04-01
The evolution of tidal basins and estuaries in tropical and subtropical regions is often influenced by the presence of mangrove forests. These forests are amongst the most productive environments in the world and provide important ecosystem services. However, these intertidal habitats are also extremely vulnerable and are threatened by climate change impacts such as sea level rise. It is therefore of key importance to improve our understanding of how tidal systems occupied by mangrove vegetation respond to rising water levels. An ecomorphodynamic model was developed that simulates morphological change and mangrove forest evolution as a result of mutual feedbacks between physical and biological processes. The model accounts for the effects of mangrove trees on tidal flow patterns and sediment dynamics. Mangrove growth is in turn controlled by hydrodynamic conditions. Under stable water levels, model results indicate that mangrove trees enhance the initiation and branching of tidal channels, partly because the extra flow resistance in mangrove forests favours flow concentration, and thus sediment erosion in between vegetated areas. The landward expansion of the channels, on the other hand, is reduced. Model simulations including sea level rise suggest that mangroves can potentially enhance the ability of the soil surface to maintain an elevation within the upper portion of the intertidal zone. While the sea level is rising, mangroves are migrating landward and the channel network tends to expand landward too. The presence of mangrove trees, however, was found to hinder both the branching and headward erosion of the landward expanding channels. Simulations are performed according to different sea level rise scenarios and with different tidal range conditions to assess which tidal environments are most vulnerable. Changes in the properties of the tidal channel networks are being examined as well. Overall, model results highlight the role of mangroves in driving the
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Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris
Bittermann, Klaus; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.
2017-12-01
Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to ‘well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels’, projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 °C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm (90% credible interval: 14-21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr-1 (90% credible interval: 1.4-2.6 mm yr-1). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 °C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr-1 (90% credible interval: 2.0-4.0 mm yr-1).
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Keeler, A. G.; McNamara, D. E.; Irish, J. L.
2018-04-01
Most existing coastal climate-adaptation planning processes, and the research supporting them, tightly focus on how to use land use planning, policy tools, and infrastructure spending to reduce risks from rising seas and changing storm conditions. While central to community response to sea level rise, we argue that the exclusive nature of this focus biases against and delays decisions to take more discontinuous, yet proactive, actions to adapt—for example, relocation and aggressive individual protection investments. Public policies should anticipate real estate market responses to risk reduction to avoid large costs—social and financial—when and if sea level rise and other climate-related factors elevate the risks to such high levels that discontinuous responses become the least bad alternative.
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Effect of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida.
Langevin, Christian D; Zygnerski, Michael
2013-01-01
A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
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Zambon, Lucas Santos; Marta, Guilherme Nader; Chehter, Natan; Del Nero, Luis Guilherme; Cavallaro, Marina Costa
2016-07-16
Edwardsiella tarda is an Enterobacteriaceae found in aquatic environments. Extraintestinal infections caused by Edwardsiella tarda in humans are rare and occur in the presence of some risk factors. As far as we know, this is the first case of near-drowning-associated pneumonia with bacteremia caused by coinfection with methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus and Edwardsiella tarda in a healthy patient. A 27-year-old previously healthy white man had an episode of fresh water drowning after acute alcohol consumption. Edwardsiella tarda and methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus were isolated in both tracheal aspirate cultures and blood cultures. This case shows that Edwardsiella tarda is an important pathogen in near drowning even in healthy individuals, and not only in the presence of risk factors, as previously known.
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Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
DineshKumar, P.K.
scenarios with particular emphasis to the coastal environment, a detailed investigation was carried out in the study region (Dinesh Kumar, 2000). Beach transect data generated in the region were analysed to determine the effects of projected sea level rise... considered valid (Are Kont et al., 2003) as the general projections on average global sea level rise, which is used in the present investigation as the projected sea level rise scenarios. According to the climate change scenario results, the projected values...
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Doyle, Thomas W.
2015-01-01
Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed
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Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise
Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.
2018-03-01
Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.
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Cities and Sea Level Rise: A Roadmap for Flood Hazard Adaptation
Horn, D. P.; Cousins, A.
2015-12-01
Coastal cities will face a range of increasingly severe challenges as sea level rises, and adaptation to future flood risk will require more than structural defences. Many cities will not be able to rely solely on engineering structures for protection and will need to develop a suite of policy responses to increase their resilience to impacts of rising sea level. Local governments generally maintain day-to-day responsibility and control over the use of the vast majority of property at risk of flooding, and the tools to promote flood risk adaptation are already within the capacity of most cities. Policy tools available to address other land-use problems can be refashioned and used to adapt to sea level rise. This study reviews approaches for urban adaptation through case studies of cities which have developed flood adaptation strategies that combine structural defences with innovative approaches to living with flood risk. The aim of the overall project is to produce a 'roadmap' to guide practitioners through the process of analysing coastal flood risk in urban areas. Technical knowledge of flood risk reduction measures is complemented with a consideration of the essential impact that local policy has on the treatment of coastal flooding and the constraints and opportunities that result from the specific country or locality characteristics in relation to economic, political, social and environmental priorities, which are likely to dictate the approach to coastal flooding and the actions proposed. Detailed analyses of the adaptation strategies used by Rotterdam (Netherlands), Bristol (UK), and Norfolk (Virginia) are used to draw out a range of good practice elements that promote effective adaptation to sea level rise. These can be grouped into risk reduction, governance issues, and insurance, and can be used to provide examples of how other cities could adopt and implement flood adaptation strategies from a relatively limited starting position. Most cities will
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Predicting habitat distribution to conserve seagrass threatened by sea level rise
Saunders, M. I.; Baldock, T.; Brown, C. J.; Callaghan, D. P.; Golshani, A.; Hamylton, S.; Hoegh-guldberg, O.; Leon, J. X.; Lovelock, C. E.; Lyons, M. B.; O'Brien, K.; Mumby, P.; Phinn, S. R.; Roelfsema, C. M.
2013-12-01
Sea level rise (SLR) over the 21st century will cause significant redistribution of valuable coastal habitats. Seagrasses form extensive and highly productive meadows in shallow coastal seas support high biodiversity, including economically valuable and threatened species. Predictive habitat models can inform local management actions that will be required to conserve seagrass faced with multiple stressors. We developed novel modelling approaches, based on extensive field data sets, to examine the effects of sea level rise and other stressors on two representative seagrass habitats in Australia. First, we modelled interactive effects of SLR, water clarity and adjacent land use on estuarine seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland. The extent of suitable seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 due to SLR alone, but losses were predicted to be significantly reduced through improvements in water quality (Fig 1a) and by allowing space for seagrass migration with inundation. The rate of sedimentation in seagrass strongly affected the area of suitable habitat for seagrass in sea level rise scenarios (Fig 1b). Further research to understand spatial, temporal and environmental variability of sediment accretion in seagrass is required. Second, we modelled changes in wave energy distribution due to predicted SLR in a linked coral reef and seagrass ecosystem at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Scenarios where the water depth over the coral reef deepened due to SLR and minimal reef accretion, resulted in larger waves propagating shoreward, changing the existing hydrodynamic conditions sufficiently to reduce area of suitable habitat for seagrass. In a scenario where accretion of the coral reef was severely compromised (e.g. warming, acidification, overfishing), the probability of the presence of seagrass declined significantly. Management to maintain coral health will therefore also benefit seagrasses subject to SLR in reef environments. Further
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Dvorak, Ana C; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Galletti, Andrea; Benzecry, Bernardo; Malone, Hannah; Boguszewski, Vicki; Bird, Jason
2018-04-18
Sea levels are projected to rise in response to climate change, causing the intrusion of sea water into land. In flat coastal regions, this would generate an increase in shallow water covered areas with limited circulation. This scenario raises a concern about the consequences it could have on human health, specifically the possible impacts on disease transmission. In this review paper we identified three categories of diseases which are associated with water and whose transmission can be affected by sea level rise. These categories include: mosquitoborne diseases, naturalized organisms (Vibrio spp. and toxic algae), and fecal-oral diseases. For each disease category, we propose comprehensive adaptation strategies that would help minimize possible health risks. Finally, the City of Key West, Florida is analyzed as a case study, due to its inherent vulnerability to sea level rise. Current and projected adaptation techniques are discussed as well as the integration of additional recommendations, focused on disease transmission control. Given that sea level rise will likely continue into the future, the promotion and implementation of positive adaptation strategies is necessary to ensure community resilience. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Geodetic Vertical Datum of Peninsular Malaysia
Din, A. H. M.; Abazu, I. C.; Pa'suya, M. F.; Omar, K. M.; Hamid, A. I. A.
2016-09-01
Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015) for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015) for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD) is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 - 1993) and 32 years (1984 - 2015) tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.
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THE IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON GEODETIC VERTICAL DATUM OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. H. M. Din
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015 for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015 for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 – 1993 and 32 years (1984 – 2015 tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.
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Tidal extension and sea-level rise: recommendations for a research agenda
Ensign, Scott H.; Noe, Gregory
2018-01-01
Sea-level rise is pushing freshwater tides upstream into formerly non-tidal rivers. This tidal extension may increase the area of tidal freshwater ecosystems and offset loss of ecosystem functions due to salinization downstream. Without considering how gains in ecosystem functions could offset losses, landscape-scale assessments of ecosystem functions may be biased toward worst-case scenarios of loss. To stimulate research on this concept, we address three fundamental questions about tidal extension: Where will tidal extension be most evident, and can we measure it? What ecosystem functions are influenced by tidal extension, and how can we measure them? How do watershed processes, climate change, and tidal extension interact to affect ecosystem functions? Our preliminary answers lead to recommendations that will advance tidal extension research, enable better predictions of the impacts of sea-level rise, and help balance the landscape-scale benefits of ecosystem function with costs of response.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie; Copping, Andrea E.
2015-04-01
Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of the inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.
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The economic impact of sea-level rise on nonmarket lands in Singapore.
Ng, Wei-Shiuen; Mendelsohn, Robert
2006-09-01
Sea-level rise, as a result of climate change, will likely inflict considerable economic consequences on coastal regions, particularly low-lying island states like Singapore. Although the literature has addressed the vulnerability of developed coastal lands, this is the first economic study to address nonmarket lands, such as beaches, marshes and mangrove estuaries. This travel cost and contingent valuation study reveals that consumers in Singapore attach considerable value to beaches. The contingent valuation study also attached high values to marshes and mangroves but this result was not supported by the travel cost study. Although protecting nonmarket land uses from sea-level rise is expensive, the study shows that at least highly valued resources, such as Singapore's popular beaches, should be protected.
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Estimating Areas of Vulnerability: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazards in the National Parks
Caffrey, M.; Beavers, R. L.; Slayton, I. A.
2013-12-01
The University of Colorado Boulder in collaboration with the National Park Service has undertaken the task of compiling sea level change and storm surge data for 105 coastal parks. The aim of our research is to highlight areas of the park system that are at increased risk of rapid inundation as well as periodic flooding due to sea level rise and storms. This research will assist park managers and planners in adapting to climate change. The National Park Service incorporates climate change data into many of their planning documents and is willing to implement innovative coastal adaptation strategies. Events such as Hurricane Sandy highlight how impacts of coastal hazards will continue to challenge management of natural and cultural resources and infrastructure along our coastlines. This poster will discuss the current status of this project. We discuss the impacts of Hurricane Sandy as well as the latest sea level rise and storm surge modeling being employed in this project. In addition to evaluating various drivers of relative sea-level change, we discuss how park planners and managers also need to consider projected storm surge values added to sea-level rise magnitudes, which could further complicate the management of coastal lands. Storm surges occurring at coastal parks will continue to change the land and seascapes of these areas, with the potential to completely submerge them. The likelihood of increased storm intensity added to increasing rates of sea-level rise make predicting the reach of future storm surges essential for planning and adaptation purposes. The National Park Service plays a leading role in developing innovative strategies for coastal parks to adapt to sea-level rise and storm surge, whilst coastal storms are opportunities to apply highly focused responses.
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Vulnerability of the Nile Delta coastal areas to inundation by sea level rise.
Hassaan, M A; Abdrabo, M A
2013-08-01
Sea level changes are typically caused by several natural phenomena, including ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. Global average sea level is expected to rise, through the twenty-first century, according to the IPCC projections by between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea level will significantly impact coastal area of the Nile Delta, consisting generally of lowland and is densely populated areas and accommodates significant proportion of Egypt's economic activities and built-up areas. The Nile Delta has been examined in several previous studies, which worked under various hypothetical sea level rise (SLR) scenarios and provided different estimates of areas susceptible to inundation due to SLR. The paper intends, in this respect, to identify areas, as well as land use/land cover, susceptible to inundation by SLR based upon most recent scenarios of SLR, by the year 2100 using GIS. The results indicate that about 22.49, 42.18, and 49.22 % of the total area of coastal governorates of the Nile Delta would be susceptible to inundation under different scenarios of SLR. Also, it was found that 15.56 % of the total areas of the Nile Delta that would be vulnerable to inundation due to land subsidence only, even in the absence of any rise in sea level. Moreover, it was found that a considerable proportion of these areas (ranging between 32.32 and 53.66 %) are currently either wetland or undeveloped areas. Furthermore, natural and/or man-made structures, such as the banks of the International Coastal Highway, were found to provide unintended protection to some of these areas. This suggests that the inundation impact of SLR on the Nile Delta is less than previously reported.
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Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China
Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.
2013-12-01
The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of
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Shen, Megan Johnson; Nelson, Christian J; Peters, Ellen; Slovin, Susan F; Hall, Simon J; Hall, Matt; Herrera, Phapichaya Chaoprang; Leventhal, Elaine A; Leventhal, Howard; Diefenbach, Michael A
2015-05-01
Prostate cancer survivors with a rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level have few treatment options, experience a heightened state of uncertainty about their disease trajectory that might include the possibility of cancer metastasis and death, and often experience elevated levels of distress as they have to deal with a disease they thought they had conquered. Guided by self-regulation theory, the present study examined the cognitive and affective processes involved in shared decision making between physicians and patients who experience a rising PSA after definitive treatment for prostate cancer. In-depth interviews were conducted with 34 prostate cancer survivors who had been diagnosed with a rising PSA (i.e., biochemical failure) within the past 12 months. Survivors were asked about their experiences and affective responses after being diagnosed with a rising PSA and while weighing potential treatment options. In addition, patients were asked about their decision-making process for the initial prostate cancer treatment. Compared with the initial diagnosis, survivors with a rising PSA reported increased negative affect following their diagnosis, concern about the treatability of their disease, increased planning and health behavior change, heightened levels of worry preceding doctor appointments (especially prior to the discussion of PSA testing results), and a strong reliance on physicians' treatment recommendations. Prostate cancer survivors' decision-making processes for the treatment of a rising PSA are markedly different from those of the initial diagnosis of prostate cancer. Because patients experience heightened distress and rely more heavily on their physicians' recommendations with a rising PSA, interactions with the health care provider provide an excellent opportunity to address and assist patients with managing the uncertainty and distress inherent with rising PSA levels. © The Author(s) 2014.
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Attempts to Dodge Drowning in Data : Rule- and Risk-Based Anti Money Laundering Policies Compared
Unger, B.; van Waarden, F.
Both in the US and in Europe anti money laundering policy switched from a rule-to a risk-based reporting system in order to avoid over-reporting by the private sector. However, reporting increased in most countries, while the quality of information decreased. Governments drowned in data because
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The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.
Golledge, N R; Kowalewski, D E; Naish, T R; Levy, R H; Fogwill, C J; Gasson, E G W
2015-10-15
Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.
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Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam
Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.
2010-01-01
Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.
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Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise
Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.
2015-12-01
Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.
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Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam
Neumann, James; Ludwig, Lindsay; Verly, Caroleen; Emanuel, Kerry Andrew; Ravela, Srinivas
2015-01-01
This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam an area already known to be highly vulnerable to coastal risks. By combining a range of sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with the simulated storm surge level for the 100-year storm surge, we analyze permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones. As is well-established in the literature, sea level rise will increase the risk of storms by raising the base sea level from which surg...
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Death in Guizhou — Late Triassic drowning of the Yangtze carbonate platform
Enos, Paul; Wei Jiayong; Lehrmann, Daniel J.
1998-06-01
The Yangtze platform in south China formed a stable palaeogeographic element from the Late Proterozoic to the end of the Middle Triassic with deposition of shallow-water carbonates during much of this time. A portion of the Yangtze platform in south-central Guizhou drowned at the transition from Permian to Triassic, as the south-adjacent Nanpanjiang basin encroached about 100 km northward, but a new, stable platform margin was established that persisted through the Early and Middle Triassic. This long history as a stable carbonate platform ended at the transition from the Ladinian to the Carnian. The latest Ladinian rocks, the Yangliujing Formation, are 490 m of shoaling-upward carbonate cycles of grapestone and bioclastic grainstone, fenestral limestone, and stromatolitic dolomudstone, commonly overprinted by extensive subaerial diagenesis. The beginning of the Carnian is marked by a rapid transition to medium-dark-grey, nodular lime mudstones containing ammonoids, conodonts and thin-shelled bivalves, the Zhuganpo Formation. The upper part of this thin pelagic limestone contains many muddy intraclasts, some slightly bored and encrusted, indicating incipient cementation. The overlying Wayao Formation is a condensed black shale with thin interbeds of dark-grey, manganiferous lime mudstone near the base. Ammonoids, conodonts, thin-shelled bivalves, and articulated crinoid stems are abundant. Fine-grained greywacke with sole marks forms prominent bundles within grey, calcareous shale in the overlying Laishike Formation. Ammonoids and thin-shelled bivalves occur sporadically in this 810-m-thick unit. Calcareous shale with thicker-shelled bivalves and packages of cleaner, coarser-grained sandstone characterize the Banan Formation, 460 m thick. The sandstone units generally coarsen and thicken upward, with ripples, medium-scale trough cross-beds, and rare U-tube burrows. Quartzose, coal-bearing siliciclastics 690 m thick form the overlying Huobachong Formation. Thick
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Effects of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Flow Paths in a Coastal Aquifer System
Morrissey, S. K.; Clark, J. F.; Bennett, M. W.; Richardson, E.; Stute, M.
2008-05-01
Changes in groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system, South Florida, from the rise in sea level at the end of the last glacial period may be indicative of changes coastal aquifers will experience with continued sea level rise. As sea level rises, the hydraulic head near the coast increases. Coastal aquifers can therefore experience decreased groundwater gradients (increased residence times) and seawater intrusion. Stable isotopes of water, dissolved noble gas temperatures, radiocarbon and He concentrations were analyzed in water collected from 68 wells in the Floridan aquifer system throughout South Florida. Near the recharge area, geochemical data along groundwater flow paths in the Upper Floridan aquifer show a transition from recently recharged groundwater to glacial-aged water. Down gradient from this transition, little variation is apparent in the stable isotopes and noble gas recharge temperatures, indicating that most of the Upper Floridan aquifer contains groundwater recharged during the last glacial period. The rapid 120-meter rise in sea level marking the end of the last glacial period increased the hydraulic head in the Floridan aquifer system near the coast, slowing the flow of groundwater from the recharge area to the ocean and trapping glacial-aged groundwater. The raised sea level also flooded half of the Florida platform and caused seawater to intrude into the Lower Floridan. This circulation of seawater in the Lower Floridan continues today as our data indicate that the groundwater is similar to modern seawater with a freshwater component entering vertically from the recharge area to the Upper Floridan.
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Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming
Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.
2017-08-01
The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.
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Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Vora, K.H.; Wagle, B.G.; Veerayya, M.; Almeida, F.; Karisiddaiah, S.M.
. It is surmised that coral/algal reef growth commenced with the advent of the Holocene trangression and favorable antecedent topography, and continued until early Holocene. Subsequently, rapid sea level rise drowned the reefs. The shelf edge reefs, therefore...
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Groundwater reorganization in the Floridan aquifer following Holocene sea-level rise
Morrissey, Sheila K.; Clark, Jordan F.; Bennett, Michael; Richardson, Emily; Stute, Martin
2010-10-01
Sea-level fluctuations, particularly those associated with glacial-interglacial cycles, can have profound impacts on the flow and circulation of coastal groundwater: the water found at present in many coastal aquifers may have been recharged during the last glacial period, when sea level was over 100m lower than present, and thus is not in equilibrium with present recharge conditions. Here we show that the geochemistry of the groundwater found in the Floridan Aquifer System in south Florida is best explained by a reorganization of groundwater flow following the sea-level rise at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 18,000 years ago. We find that the geochemistry of the fresh water found in the upper aquifers at present is consistent with recharge from meteoric water during the last glacial period. The lower aquifer, however, consists of post-sea-level-rise salt water that is most similar to that of the Straits of Florida, though with some dilution from the residual fresh water from the last glacial period circulation. We therefore suggest that during the last glacial period, the entire Floridan Aquifer System was recharged with meteoric waters. After sea level rose, the increased hydraulic head reduced the velocity of the groundwater flow. This velocity reduction trapped the fresh water in the upper aquifers and initiated saltwater circulation in the lower aquifer.
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High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.
Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S
2017-05-01
Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Cities and Sea Level Rise: A Roadmap for Flood Hazard Adaptation
Horn, Diane; Cousins, Ann
2016-04-01
Coastal cities will face a range of increasingly severe challenges as sea level rises, and adaptation to future flood risk will require more than structural defences. Many cities will not be able to rely solely on engineering structures for protection and will need to develop a suite of policy responses to increase their resilience to impacts of rising sea level. The tools to promote flood risk adaptation are already within the capacity of most cities, with an assortment of policy tools available to address other land-use problems which can be refashioned and used to adapt to sea level rise. This study reviews approaches for urban adaptation through detailed analyses of case studies of cities which have developed flood adaptation strategies that combine structural defences with innovative approaches to living with flood risk. The aim of the overall project is to produce a 'roadmap' to guide practitioners through the process of analysing coastal flood risk in urban areas. Methodologies and tools to estimate vulnerability to coastal flooding, damages suffered, and the assessment of flood defences and adaptation measures are complemented with a discussion on the essential impact that local policy has on the treatment of coastal flooding and the constraints and opportunities that result from the specific country or locality characteristics in relation to economic, political, social and environmental priorities, which are likely to dictate the approach to coastal flooding and the actions proposed. Case studies of adaptation strategies used by Rotterdam, Bristol, Ho Chi Minh City and Norfolk, Virginia, are used to draw out a range of good practice elements that promote effective adaptation to sea level rise. These can be grouped into risk reduction, governance issues, and insurance, and can be used to provide examples of how other cities could adopt and implement flood adaptation strategies from a relatively limited starting position. Most cities will neither be able to
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Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region
Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.
2014-12-01
Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.
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Coastal Hazards Maps: Actionable Information for Communities Facing Sea-Level Rise (Invited)
Gibeaut, J. C.; Barraza, E.
2010-12-01
Barrier islands along the U.S. Gulf coast remain under increasing pressure from development. This development and redevelopment is occurring despite recent hurricanes, ongoing erosion, and sea-level rise. To lessen the impacts of these hazards, local governments need information in a form that is useful for informing the public, making policy, and enforcing development rules. We recently completed the Galveston Island Geohazards Map for the city of Galveston, Texas and are currently developing maps for the Mustang and South Padre Island communities. The maps show areas that vary in their susceptibility to, and function for, mitigating the effects of geological processes, including sea-level rise, land subsidence, erosion and storm-surge flooding and washover. The current wetlands, beaches and dunes are mapped as having the highest geohazard potential both in terms of their exposure to hazardous conditions and their mitigating effects of those hazards for the rest of the island. These existing “critical environments” are generally protected under existing regulations. Importantly, however, the mapping recognizes that sea-level rise and shoreline retreat are changing the island; therefore, 60-year model projections of the effects of these changes are incorporated into the map. The areas that we project will become wetlands, beaches and dunes in the next 60 years are not protected. These areas are the most difficult to deal with from a policy point of view, yet we must address what happens there if real progress is to be made in how we live with sea-level rise. The geohazards maps draw on decades of geological knowledge of how barrier islands behave and put it in a form that is intuitive to the public and directly useful to planners. Some of the “messages” in the map include: leave salt marshes alone and give them room to migrate inland as sea level rises; set back and move development away from the shoreline to provide space for beaches and protective dunes
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A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards
Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen
2018-01-01
We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications. PMID:29583140
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A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards
Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen
2018-03-01
We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications.
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A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards.
Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen
2018-03-27
We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications.
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Gerlach, Magdalena M; Lippmann, Norman; Kobelt, Louise; Petzold-Quinque, Stefanie; Ritter, Lutz; Kiess, Wieland; Siekmeyer, Manuela
2016-06-01
This article reports on a previously healthy 17-month-old boy who developed pulmonary mucormycosis after a near-drowning incident in a goose pond. The patient survived without neurological sequelae and recovered, under treatment with amphotericin B, from the rare and often invasive fungal infection with Rhizopus spp., usually occurring in immunodeficient patients.
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Presumed drowning of Aleutian Canada geese on the Pacific coast of California and Oregon
Springer, Paul F.; Lowe, Roy W.; Stroud, Richard K.; Gullett, Patricia A.
1989-01-01
Carcasses of 42 and 17 Aleutian Canada geese (Branta canadensis leucopareia), a federally listed endangered species, were found on ocean beaches near Crescent City, California, and near Pacific City, Oregon, respectively, following severe storms. Necropsies and other information suggest that the birds were flushed during the storms and somehow entered the water where they were washed into the surf and drowned.
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Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.
Sriver, Ryan L; Lempert, Robert J; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus
2018-01-01
Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yinchao Zhu
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Drowning among children of migrant workers is a major, though neglected public health issue in China. Methods A randomised controlled trial was used to examine the potential impact of viewing a preventive health poster with/without geo-located drowning events on perceptions of drowning risk among Chinese migrant children. A total of 752 children from three schools in Jiangbei district were selected by multi-stage sampling and randomly assigned to the intervention (n = 380 or control (n = 372. Multilevel models were used to analyse changes in responses to the following questions after viewing the assigned poster for 10 min: (1 “Do you believe that drowning is a serious health problem in Ningbo city?”; (2 “Do you believe that there are lots of drowning-risk waters around you?”; (3 “Do you believe that the likelihood of your accessing a drowning-risk water is great?”; and (4 “Would you intend to avoid accessing to those drowning-risk waters when being exposed?” Results At baseline there were no significant differences between the intervention and control groups in perceptions of drowning risk or covariates. Following the intervention, participants that viewed the geo-specific poster were more likely to respond more favourably to the first three questions (p < 0.001 than those who viewed the standard poster. However, there was no substantive difference between the geo-specific or standard poster in terms of changing intentions to avoid drowning hotspots (p = 0.214. Conclusions Use of ‘geo-located’ information added value to the effectiveness of a drowning prevention poster for enhancing awareness of drowning hotspots among children of migrant workers. Trial registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry ChiCTR-IOR-16008979 (Retrospectively registered (The date of trial registration: Aug 5, 2016, the date of enrolment of the first participant: Nov 10, 2015.
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A policy hackathon for analysing impacts and solutions up to 20 metres sea-level rise
Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Bouwer, Laurens; Kwadijk, Jaap
2017-04-01
We organised a policy hackathon in order to quantify the impacts accelerated and high-end sea-level rise up to 20 metres on the coast of the Netherlands, and develop possible solutions. This was done during one day, with 20 experts that had a wide variety of disciplines, including hydrology, geology, coastal engineering, economics, and public policy. During the process the problem was divided up into several sub-sets of issues that were analysed and solved within small teams of between 4 to 8 people. Both a top-down impact analysis and bottom-up vulnerability analysis was done by answering the questions: What is the impact of sea level rise of x meter?; and How much sea level rise can be accommodated with before transformative actions are needed? Next, adaptation tipping points were identified that describe conditions under which the coastal system starts to perform unacceptably. Reasons for an adaptation tipping point can be technical (technically not possible), economic (cost-benefits are negative), or resources (available space, sand, energy production, financial). The results are presented in a summary document, and through an infographic displaying different adaptation tipping points and milestones that occur when the sea level rises up to 20 m. No technical limitations were found for adaptation, but many important decisions need to be taken. Although accelerated sea level rise seems far away it can have important consequences for short-term decisions that are required for transformative actions. Such extensive actions require more time for implementation. Also, other action may become ineffective before their design life. This hackathon exercise shows that it is possible to map within a short time frame the issues at hand, as well as potentially effective solutions. This can be replicated for other problems, and can be useful for several decision-makers that require quick but in-depth analysis of their long-term planning problems.
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Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise.
Beckett, Leah H; Baldwin, Andrew H; Kearney, Michael S
2016-01-01
Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and in much of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mm yr-1 due to regional subsidence. Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, and may exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidal freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mm yr-1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mm yr-1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among the marshes studied, and ranged from -9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mm yr-1. Surface accretion of deposited mineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9-15 mm yr-1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. Previous studies have focused on surface elevation change in marshes of uniform salinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies in marshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries.
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Rising CO2 levels will intensify phytoplankton blooms in eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jolanda M H Verspagen
Full Text Available Harmful algal blooms threaten the water quality of many eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes and cause severe ecological and economic damage worldwide. Dense blooms often deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration and raise pH. Yet, quantitative prediction of the feedbacks between phytoplankton growth, CO2 drawdown and the inorganic carbon chemistry of aquatic ecosystems has received surprisingly little attention. Here, we develop a mathematical model to predict dynamic changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC, pH and alkalinity during phytoplankton bloom development. We tested the model in chemostat experiments with the freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa at different CO2 levels. The experiments showed that dense blooms sequestered large amounts of atmospheric CO2, not only by their own biomass production but also by inducing a high pH and alkalinity that enhanced the capacity for DIC storage in the system. We used the model to explore how phytoplankton blooms of eutrophic waters will respond to rising CO2 levels. The model predicts that (1 dense phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters can deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration to limiting levels and raise the pH over a relatively wide range of atmospheric CO2 conditions, (2 rising atmospheric CO2 levels will enhance phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters with high nutrient loads, and (3 above some threshold, rising atmospheric CO2 will alleviate phytoplankton blooms from carbon limitation, resulting in less intense CO2 depletion and a lesser increase in pH. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model predictions were qualitatively robust. Quantitatively, the predictions were sensitive to variation in lake depth, DIC input and CO2 gas transfer across the air-water interface, but relatively robust to variation in the carbon uptake mechanisms of phytoplankton. In total, these findings warn that rising CO2 levels may result in a marked
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Rising CO2 Levels Will Intensify Phytoplankton Blooms in Eutrophic and Hypertrophic Lakes
Verspagen, Jolanda M. H.; Van de Waal, Dedmer B.; Finke, Jan F.; Visser, Petra M.; Van Donk, Ellen; Huisman, Jef
2014-01-01
Harmful algal blooms threaten the water quality of many eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes and cause severe ecological and economic damage worldwide. Dense blooms often deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration and raise pH. Yet, quantitative prediction of the feedbacks between phytoplankton growth, CO2 drawdown and the inorganic carbon chemistry of aquatic ecosystems has received surprisingly little attention. Here, we develop a mathematical model to predict dynamic changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pH and alkalinity during phytoplankton bloom development. We tested the model in chemostat experiments with the freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa at different CO2 levels. The experiments showed that dense blooms sequestered large amounts of atmospheric CO2, not only by their own biomass production but also by inducing a high pH and alkalinity that enhanced the capacity for DIC storage in the system. We used the model to explore how phytoplankton blooms of eutrophic waters will respond to rising CO2 levels. The model predicts that (1) dense phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters can deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration to limiting levels and raise the pH over a relatively wide range of atmospheric CO2 conditions, (2) rising atmospheric CO2 levels will enhance phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters with high nutrient loads, and (3) above some threshold, rising atmospheric CO2 will alleviate phytoplankton blooms from carbon limitation, resulting in less intense CO2 depletion and a lesser increase in pH. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model predictions were qualitatively robust. Quantitatively, the predictions were sensitive to variation in lake depth, DIC input and CO2 gas transfer across the air-water interface, but relatively robust to variation in the carbon uptake mechanisms of phytoplankton. In total, these findings warn that rising CO2 levels may result in a marked intensification of
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Present-day sea level rise: a synthesis; Hausse actuelle du niveau de la mer: synthese
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cazenave, A.; Llovel, W. [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), Observatoire Midi-Pyrenees, 31 - Toulouse (France); Lombard, A. [CNES, 31 - Toulouse (France)
2008-11-15
Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes have improved considerably in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing data sets have become available. Here we report on the current knowledge of present-day sea level change. We briefly present observational results on sea level change from satellite altimetry since 1993 and tide gauges for the past century. We next discuss recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on time scales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion, land ice mass loss and land water storage change. For the 1993-2003 decade, the sum of climate-related contributions agree well (within the error bars) with the altimetry-based sea level, half of the observed rate of rise being due to ocean thermal expansion, land ice plus land waters explaining the other half. Since about 2003, thermal expansion increase has stopped, whereas the sea level continues to rise, although at a reduced rate compared to the previous decade (2.5 mm/yr versus 3.1 mm/yr). Recent increases in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets appear able to account alone for the rise in sea level reported over the last five years. (authors)
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Tidal marsh plant responses to elevated CO2 , nitrogen fertilization, and sea level rise.
Adam Langley, J; Mozdzer, Thomas J; Shepard, Katherine A; Hagerty, Shannon B; Patrick Megonigal, J
2013-05-01
Elevated CO2 and nitrogen (N) addition directly affect plant productivity and the mechanisms that allow tidal marshes to maintain a constant elevation relative to sea level, but it remains unknown how these global change drivers modify marsh plant response to sea level rise. Here we manipulated factorial combinations of CO2 concentration (two levels), N availability (two levels) and relative sea level (six levels) using in situ mesocosms containing a tidal marsh community composed of a sedge, Schoenoplectus americanus, and a grass, Spartina patens. Our objective is to determine, if elevated CO2 and N alter the growth and persistence of these plants in coastal ecosystems facing rising sea levels. After two growing seasons, we found that N addition enhanced plant growth particularly at sea levels where plants were most stressed by flooding (114% stimulation in the + 10 cm treatment), and N effects were generally larger in combination with elevated CO2 (288% stimulation). N fertilization shifted the optimal productivity of S. patens to a higher sea level, but did not confer S. patens an enhanced ability to tolerate sea level rise. S. americanus responded strongly to N only in the higher sea level treatments that excluded S. patens. Interestingly, addition of N, which has been suggested to accelerate marsh loss, may afford some marsh plants, such as the widespread sedge, S. americanus, the enhanced ability to tolerate inundation. However, if chronic N pollution reduces the availability of propagules of S. americanus or other flood-tolerant species on the landscape scale, this shift in species dominance could render tidal marshes more susceptible to marsh collapse. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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Behaviour of a series of reservoirs separated by drowned gates
Kolechkina, Alla; van Nooijen, Ronald
2017-04-01
Modern control systems tend to be based on computers and therefore to operate by sending commands to structures at given intervals (discrete time control system). Moreover, for almost all water management control systems there are practical lower limits on the time interval between structure adjustments and even between measurements. The water resource systems that are being controlled are physical systems whose state changes continuously. If we combine a continuously changing system and a discrete time controller we get a hybrid system. We use material from recent control theory literature to examine the behaviour of a series of reservoirs separated by drowned gates where the gates are under computer control.
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Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Overeem, I.; Syvitski, J. P.
2017-12-01
Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning, and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for both human and natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea-level rise across 46 global deltas. We model ongoing development and scenarios of future water resource management and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea-level in coastal delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea-level rise result in relative sea-level rise rates in deltas that average 6.8 mm/year. Currently planned or under-construction dams can be expected to increase rates of relative sea-level rise on the order of 1 mm/year. Some deltas systems, including the Magdalena, Orinoco, and Indus, are highly sensitive to future impoundment of river basins, with RSLR rates increasing up to 4 mm/year in a high-hydropower-utilization scenario. Sediment fluxes may be reduced by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Megnha if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas due to increased river channelization and local flood controls increases RSLR on average by nearly 2 mm/year. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea-level rise.
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Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008
2008-01-01
Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant
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Possible impact of rising sea levels on vector-borne infectious diseases
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Surendran Sinnathamby N
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Vector-borne infectious diseases are a significant cause of human and animal mortality and morbidity. Modeling studies predict that changes in climate that accompany global warming will alter the transmission risk of many vector-borne infectious diseases in different parts of the world. Global warming will also raise sea levels, which will lead to an increase in saline and brackish water bodies in coastal areas. The potential impact of rising sea levels, as opposed to climate change, on the prevalence of vector-borne infectious diseases has hitherto been unrecognised. Presentation of the hypothesis Mosquito species possessing salinity-tolerant larvae and pupae, and capable of transmitting arboviruses and parasites are found in many parts of the world. An expansion of brackish and saline water bodies in coastal areas, associated with rising sea levels, can increase densities of salinity-tolerant vector mosquitoes and lead to the adaptation of freshwater vectors to breed in brackish and saline waters. The breeding of non-mosquito vectors may also be influenced by salinity changes in coastal habitats. Higher vector densities can increase transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases in coastal localities, which can then spread to other areas. Testing the hypothesis The demonstration of increases in vector populations and disease prevalence that is related to an expansion of brackish/saline water bodies in coastal areas will provide the necessary supportive evidence. However the implementation of specific vector and disease control measures to counter the threat will confound the expected findings. Implications of the hypothesis Rising sea levels can act synergistically with climate change and then interact in a complex manner with other environmental and socio-economic factors to generate a greater potential for the transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases. The resulting health impacts are likely to be particularly
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DiMichele, W.A.; Eble, C.F.; Chaney, D.S.
1996-01-01
Over 800 mud-filled casts of upright lycopsid tree stumps have been documented immediately above the Mahoning coal in an active underground mine located in northwestern Jefferson County, Ohio. The coal body originated as a pod-shaped peat body of ??? 60 km2. Trees are rooted at several levels within a thin (15-40 cm) bone coal directly above the banded coal; they extend upward up to 15 cm into overlying, flat-bedded, carbonaceous mudstones that coarsen up. From a maximum basal diameter of 1.2 m, stumps taper upward to diameters no less than 0.3 m. Within single-entry transects, trees are identified as lepidodendrids on the basis of gross morphology, external stem patterns, and attached stigmarian root systems, and provisionally as Lepidophloios or Lepidodendron by associated palynology of the enclosing matrix. Palynological analyses of incremental seam samples indicate an initial dominance of lycopsid spores with lepidodendracean affinities (Lycospora granulata from Lepidophloios hallii), replaced upwards by tree-fern spores, with a reoccurrence of lepidodendracean spores in the upper benches; spores of Sigillaria (Crassispora) are abundant only at the base of the coal. Petrographic analyses indicate a parallel trend from vitrinite-rich to inertinite- and liptinite-rich upward in the coal body. All data indicate that the peat represented by the Mahoning coal was drowned slowly. During the earliest stages of inundation, a lycopsid forest was re-established, only to be subsequently drowned.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Buddemeier, R W; Smith, S V
1988-01-01
Coral reef growth is intimately linked to sea level. It has been postulated that over the next century, sea level will rise at a probable average rate of 15 mm/year, in response to fossil fuel emissions, heating, and melting of the Antarctic ice cap. This predicted rate of sea level rise is five times the present modal rate of vertical accretion on coral reef flats and 50% greater than the maximum vertical accretion rates apparently attained by coral reefs. We use these predictions and observations to offer the following hypothesis for reef growth over the next century. The vertical accretion rates of protected reef flats will accelerate from the present modal rate up to the maximum rate, in response to the more rapidly rising sea level. This more rapid vertical accretion rate will be insufficient to keep up with sea level rise, if present predictions prove to be correct. Less protected reef flats will slow their rate of growth as they become inundated and subjected to erosion by progressively larger waves. This projected sea level rise and postulated reef response will provide an opportunity for long- term studies of the response of coral reef systems to a predictable and measurable forcing function.
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Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport
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J. Park
2015-07-01
Full Text Available The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade; however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition (EMD suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the straits exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level (MSL rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.
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Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
James E. Neumann
2015-05-01
Full Text Available This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam. Permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones are analyzed by combining sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with simulated storm surge levels for the 100-year event. Our analysis finds that sea level rise through 2050 could increase the effective frequency of the current 100-year storm surge, which is associated with a storm surge of roughly five meters, to once every 49 years. Approximately 10% of the Hanoi region’s GDP is vulnerable to permanent inundation due to sea level rise, and more than 40% is vulnerable to periodic storm surge damage consistent with the current 100-year storm. We conclude that coastal adaptation measures, such as a planned retreat from the sea, and construction of a more substantial seawall and dike system, are needed to respond to these threats.
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Tessler, Zachary D.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Overeem, Irina; Syvitski, James P. M.
2018-03-01
Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for human and for natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea level rise across 46 global deltas. We model scenarios of contemporary and future water resource management schemes and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea level rise in delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea level rise result in delta relative sea level rise rates that average 6.8 mm/y. Assessment of impacts of planned and under-construction dams on relative sea level rise rates suggests increases on the order of 1 mm/y in deltas with new upstream construction. Sediment fluxes are estimated to decrease by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas caused by increased river channelization and management has a larger impact, increasing relative sea level rise on average by nearly 2 mm/y. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Local and regional strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea level rise.
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Rapid sea level rise in the aftermath of a Neoproterozoic snowball Earth.
Myrow, P M; Lamb, M P; Ewing, R C
2018-04-19
Earth's most severe climate changes occurred during global-scale snowball-Earth glaciations, which profoundly altered Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere. Extreme rates of glacio-eustatic sea-level rise are a fundamental prediction of the snowball Earth hypothesis, but supporting geologic evidence is lacking. We use paleohydraulic analysis of wave ripples and tidal laminae of the Elatina Formation, Australia - deposited following the Marinoan glaciation ca. 635Ma - to show that water depths of 9-16m remained nearly constant for ~100yrs throughout 27m of sediment accumulation. This accumulation rate was too great to have been accommodated by subsidence, and instead indicates an extraordinarily rapid rate of sea-level rise (0.2-0.27m/yr). Our results substantiate a fundamental prediction of snowball Earth models of rapid deglaciation during the early transition to a super-greenhouse climate. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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Measuring Sea Level Rise-Induced Shoreline Changes and Inundation in Real Time
Shilling, F.; Waetjen, D.; Grijalva, E.
2016-12-01
We describe a method to monitor shoreline inundation and changes in response to sea level rise (SLR) using a network of time-lapse cameras. We found for coastal tidal marshes that this method was sensitive to vertical changes in sea level of 20 cm has occurred in the San Francisco Bay and other US coastal areas and is likely to rise by another 30-45 cm by mid-century, which will flood and erode many coastal ecosystems, highways, and urban areas. This rapid degree of rise means that it is imperative to co-plan for natural and built systems. Many public facilities are adjacent to shoreline ecosystems, which both protect infrastructure from wave and tide energy and are home to regulated species and habitats. Accurate and timely information about the actual extent of SLR impacts to shorelines will be critical during built-system adaptation. Currently, satellite-sourced imagery cannot provide the spatial or temporal resolution necessary to investigate fine-scale shoreline changes, leaving a gap between predictive models and knowing how, where and when these changes are occurring. The method described is feasible for near-term (1 to 10 years) to long-term application and can be used for measuring fine-resolution shoreline changes (organize photographs that could be combined with related external data (e.g., gauged water levels) to create an information mashup. This information could be used to validate models predicting shoreline inundation and loss, inform SLR-adaptation planning, and to visualize SLR impacts to the public.
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Sampath, D. M. R.; Boski, T.
2016-12-01
In the context of rapid sea-level rise in the 21st century, the reduction of fluvial sediment supply due to the regulation of river discharge represents a major challenge for the management of estuarine ecosystems. Therefore, the present study aims to assess the cumulative impacts of the reduction of river discharge and projected sea-level rise on the morphological evolution of the Guadiana estuary during the 21st century. The assessment was based on a set of analytical solutions to simplified equations of tidal wave propagation in shallow waters and empirical knowledge of the system. As methods applied to estimate environmental flows do not take into consideration the fluvial discharge required to maintain saltmarsh habitats and the impact of sea-level rise, simulations were carried out for ten cases in terms of base river flow and sea-level rise so as to understand their sensitivity on the deepening of saltmarsh platforms. Results suggest saltmarsh habitats may not be affected severely in response to lower limit scenarios of sea-level rise and sedimentation. A similar behaviour can be expected even due to the upper limit scenarios until 2050, but with a significant submergence afterwards. In the case of the upper limit scenarios under scrutiny, there was a net erosion of sediment from the estuary. Multiplications of amplitudes of the base flow function by factors 1.5, 2, and 5 result in reduction of the estimated net eroded sediment volume by 25, 40, and 80%, respectively, with respect to the net eroded volume for observed river discharge. The results also indicate that defining the minimum environmental flow as a percentage of dry season flow (as done presently) should be updated to include the full spectrum of natural flows, incorporating temporal variability to better anticipate scenarios of sea-level rise during this century. As permanent submergence of intertidal habitats can be significant after 2050, due to the projected 79 cm rise of sea-level by the year
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McDonald, Robert Christopher
The purpose of this study was to explore the process of developing a learning progression (LP) on constructing explanations about sea level rise. I used a learning progressions theoretical framework informed by the situated cognition learning theory. During this exploration, I explicitly described my decision-making process as I developed and revised a hypothetical learning progression. Correspondingly, my research question was: What is a process by which a hypothetical learning progression on sea level rise is developed into an empirical learning progression using learners' explanations? To answer this question, I used a qualitative descriptive single case study with multiple embedded cases (Yin, 2014) that employed analytic induction (Denzin, 1970) to analyze data collected on middle school learners (grades 6-8). Data sources included written artifacts, classroom observations, and semi-structured interviews. Additionally, I kept a researcher journal to track my thinking about the learning progression throughout the research study. Using analytic induction to analyze collected data, I developed eight analytic concepts: participant explanation structures varied widely, global warming and ice melt cause sea level rise, participants held alternative conceptions about sea level rise, participants learned about thermal expansion as a fundamental aspect of sea level rise, participants learned to incorporate authentic scientific data, participants' mental models of the ocean varied widely, sea ice melt contributes to sea level rise, and participants held vague and alternative conceptions about how pollution impacts the ocean. I started with a hypothetical learning progression, gathered empirical data via various sources (especially semi-structured interviews), revised the hypothetical learning progression in response to those data, and ended with an empirical learning progression comprising six levels of learner thinking. As a result of developing an empirically based LP
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Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise
Wikman-Svahn, P.
2013-12-01
How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing
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Past and future contribution of global groundwater depletion to sea-level rise
Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Chao, B.; Wu, Y.-H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.
2012-01-01
Recent studies suggest the increasing contribution of groundwater depletion to global sea-level rise. Groundwater depletion has more than doubled during the last decades, primarily due to increase in water demand, while the increase in water impoundments behind dams has been tapering off since
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Modelling Morphological Response of Large Tidal Inlet Systems to Sea Level Rise
Dissanayake, P.K.
2011-01-01
This dissertation qualitatively investigates the morphodynamic response of a large inlet system to IPCC projected relative sea level rise (RSLR). Adopted numerical approach (Delft3D) used a highly schematised model domain analogous to the Ameland inlet in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Predicted inlet
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We Are All Engineers Now: Delivering Useful Projections Of Sea Level Rise
Pfeffer, W. T.
2011-12-01
Sea level rise is among the most tangible and potentially costly global changes facing society in the near future. Much of the uncertainty in future sea level rise lies in the determination of glacier and ice sheet contributions through melting of ice and through the discharge of icebergs directly into the ocean. As a consequence, many aspects of modern glaciological research have come to be motivated wholly or in part by the need to solve societally relevant problems involving future changes in sea level. To this extent, glaciology has become - temporarily - an applied science, in which the motivating questions are not purely scientific but practical in nature, and entail goals, deadlines and constraints that may or may not mesh comfortably with the skills, resources, and interests of the glaciological research community. This shift in motivation has subtle but important effects on how the glaciological community conducts research: we are no longer fully at liberty to explore only those problems that we judge to be the most intellectually stimulating and novel, or even the most likely to produce immediate results. We are obliged, at least if we are going to claim to be serving a critical societal need, to take on the entire spectrum of problems pertinent to sea level rise: the exciting with the mundane, the low-hanging fruit with the high-hanging, the tractable with the intractable. And in those intractable cases, and in other situations where the path to a solution is unclear, we must explore alternatives to our conventional approaches, and seek the means, if not to actually obtain solutions, to at least constrain the outcome and reduce the uncertainty of future knowledge. This broadening of methods is very much an engineer's approach to problem solving, but it also fits the philosopher/physicist P.W. Bridgman's definition of the scientific method as "Doing your damnedest, no holds barred."
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Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports
Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.
2014-12-01
Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ
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Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets
Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.
2017-12-01
New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100
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Elevated CO2 stimulates marsh elevation gain, counterbalancing sea-level rise.
Langley, J Adam; McKee, Karen L; Cahoon, Donald R; Cherry, Julia A; Megonigal, J Patrick
2009-04-14
Tidal wetlands experiencing increased rates of sea-level rise (SLR) must increase rates of soil elevation gain to avoid permanent conversion to open water. The maximal rate of SLR that these ecosystems can tolerate depends partly on mineral sediment deposition, but the accumulation of organic matter is equally important for many wetlands. Plant productivity drives organic matter dynamics and is sensitive to global change factors, such as rising atmospheric CO(2) concentration. It remains unknown how global change will influence organic mechanisms that determine future tidal wetland viability. Here, we present experimental evidence that plant response to elevated atmospheric [CO(2)] stimulates biogenic mechanisms of elevation gain in a brackish marsh. Elevated CO(2) (ambient + 340 ppm) accelerated soil elevation gain by 3.9 mm yr(-1) in this 2-year field study, an effect mediated by stimulation of below-ground plant productivity. Further, a companion greenhouse experiment revealed that the CO(2) effect was enhanced under salinity and flooding conditions likely to accompany future SLR. Our results indicate that by stimulating biogenic contributions to marsh elevation, increases in the greenhouse gas, CO(2), may paradoxically aid some coastal wetlands in counterbalancing rising seas.
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Elevated CO2 stimulates marsh elevation gain, counterbalancing sea-level rise
Langley, J. Adam; McKee, Karen L.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Cherry, Julia A.; Megonigal, J. Patrick
2009-01-01
Tidal wetlands experiencing increased rates of sea-level rise (SLR) must increase rates of soil elevation gain to avoid permanent conversion to open water. The maximal rate of SLR that these ecosystems can tolerate depends partly on mineral sediment deposition, but the accumulation of organic matter is equally important for many wetlands. Plant productivity drives organic matter dynamics and is sensitive to global change factors, such as rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. It remains unknown how global change will influence organic mechanisms that determine future tidal wetland viability. Here, we present experimental evidence that plant response to elevated atmospheric [CO2] stimulates biogenic mechanisms of elevation gain in a brackish marsh. Elevated CO2 (ambient + 340 ppm) accelerated soil elevation gain by 3.9 mm yr−1 in this 2-year field study, an effect mediated by stimulation of below-ground plant productivity. Further, a companion greenhouse experiment revealed that the CO2 effect was enhanced under salinity and flooding conditions likely to accompany future SLR. Our results indicate that by stimulating biogenic contributions to marsh elevation, increases in the greenhouse gas, CO2, may paradoxically aid some coastal wetlands in counterbalancing rising seas. PMID:19325121
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Mapping Sea Level Rise Behavior in an Estuarine Delta System: A Case Study along the Shanghai Coast
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H.Q. Cheng
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Sea level rise (SLR is a major projected threat of climate change that is expected to affect developing coastal cities located in estuarine delta regions. Shanghai is one such city, being located in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD. It is difficult, however, for decision-makers to implement adaptation due to the uncertain causes, magnitudes, and timings of SLR behaviors. This paper attempts to map the causes and magnitudes of SLR behaviors on a decadal scale. We analyze the tidal level records from 11 tidal gauge stations and the corresponding bathymetry measurements around these stations since 1921. We identify three new SLR behaviors along the Shanghai coast due to anthropogenic geomorphologic changes (AGCs, besides the well-known eustatic sea level rise (ESLR, tectonic subsidence (TS, and urban land subsidence (ULS. The first new behavior is regional sea level rise (RSLR, which occurs as a result of land reclamation and deep waterway regulation. The second is regional sea level fall (RSLF, which occurs because the channel bed is eroded due to sediment supply decline in the river catchment. The last SLR behavior is local tidal datum rise (LTDR. Thus, we project that the magnitude of SLR for the Shanghai coast ranges from 10 cm to 16 cm from 2011 to 2030. Clarifying SLR behaviors is important to aid local decision-makers in planning structural and non-structural measures to combat escalating flood damage costs in an estuarine delta system; this field is full of future challenges. Keywords: Sea level rise behavior, Anthropogenic geomorphologic change, Local tidal datum, Flood management, Adaptation
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Payne, Dorothy F.
2010-01-01
Saltwater intrusion of the Upper Floridan aquifer has been observed in the Hilton Head area, South Carolina since the late 1970s and currently affects freshwater supply. Rising sea level in the Hilton Head Island area may contribute to the occurrence of and affect the rate of saltwater intrusion into the Upper Floridan aquifer by increasing the hydraulic gradient and by inundating an increasing area with saltwater, which may then migrate downward into geologic units that presently contain freshwater. Rising sea level may offset any beneficial results from reductions in groundwater pumpage, and thus needs to be considered in groundwater-management decisions. A variable-density groundwater flow and transport model was modified from a previously existing model to simulate the effects of sea-level rise in the Hilton Head Island area. Specifically, the model was used to (1) simulate trends of saltwater intrusion from predevelopment to the present day (1885-2004) and evaluate the conceptual model, (2) project these trends from the present day into the future based on different potential rates of sea-level change, and (3) evaluate the relative influences of pumpage and sea-level rise on saltwater intrusion. Four scenarios were simulated for 2004-2104: (1) continuation of the estimated sea-level rise rate over the last century, (2) a doubling of the sea-level rise, (3) a cessation of sea-level rise, and (4) continuation of the rate over the last century coupled with an elimination of all pumpage. Results show that, if present-day (year 2004) pumping conditions are maintained, the extent of saltwater in the Upper Floridan aquifer will increase, whether or not sea level continues to rise. Furthermore, if all pumpage is eliminated and sea level continues to rise, the simulated saltwater extent in the Upper Floridan aquifer is reduced. These results indicate that pumpage is a strong driving force for simulated saltwater intrusion, more so than sea-level rise at current rates
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Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M.
2015-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.
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Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M.
2014-02-13
The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.
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Suen, K-F; Leung, Reynold; Leung, Ling-Pong
2017-12-01
The objective of this review was to summarize published evidence of the effectiveness of therapeutic hypothermia in patients with drowning-associated asphyxial out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and to explore any preliminary favorable factors in the management of therapeutic hypothermia to improve survival and neurological outcome. Drowning may result in asphyxial OHCA or hypothermic OHCA, but the former does not provide any potential neuroprotective effect as the latter may do. Electronic literature searches of Ovid Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Scopus were performed for all years from inception to July 2016. Primary studies in the form of case reports, letters to the editor, and others with higher quality are included, but guidelines, reviews, editorials, textbook chapters, conference abstracts, and nonhuman studies are excluded. Non-English articles are excluded. Relevant studies are then deemed eligible if the drowning OHCA patient's initial temperature was above 28°C, which implies asphyxial cardiac arrest, and intentional therapeutic hypothermia was instituted. Because of the narrow scope of interest and strict definition of the condition, limited studies addressed it, and no randomized controlled trials (RCT) could be selected. Thirteen studies covering 35 patients are included. No quantitative synthesis, assessment of study quality, or assessment of bias was performed. It is conjectured that extended therapeutic hypothermia of 48-72 hours might help prevent reperfusion injury during the intermediate phase of postcardiac arrest care to benefit patients of drowning-associated asphyxial OHCA, but this finding only serves as preliminary observation for future research. No conclusive recommendation could be made regarding the duration of and the time of onset of therapeutic hypothermia. Future research should put effort on RCT, particularly the effect of extended duration of 48-72 hours. Important parameters should be reported in detail. Asphyxial
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Ismail, Nabil; Williams, Jeffress
2013-04-01
This paper presents an assessment of global sea level rise and the need to incorporate projections of rise into management plans for coastal adaptation. It also discusses the performance of a shoreline revetment; M. Ali Seawall, placed to protect the land against flooding and overtopping at coastal site, within Abu Qir Bay, East of Alexandria, Egypt along the Nile Delta coast. The assessment is conducted to examine the adequacy of the seawall under the current and progressive effects of climate change demonstrated by the anticipated sea level rise during this century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) predicts that the Mediterranean will rise 30 cm to 1 meter this century. Coastal zone management of the bay coastline is of utmost significance to the protection of the low agricultural land and the industrial complex located in the rear side of the seawall. Moreover this joint research work highlights the similarity of the nature of current and anticipated coastal zone problems, at several locations around the world, and required adaptation and protection measures. For example many barrier islands in the world such as that in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of the U.S., lowland and deltas such as in Italy and the Nile Delta, and many islands are also experiencing significant levels of erosion and flooding that are exacerbated by sea level rise. Global Climatic Changes: At a global scale, an example of the effects of accelerated climate changes was demonstrated. In recent years, the impacts of natural disasters are more and more severe on coastal lowland areas. With the threats of climate change, sea level rise storm surge, progressive storm and hurricane activities and potential subsidence, the reduction of natural disasters in coastal lowland areas receives increased attention. Yet many of their inhabitants are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding, and conversions of land to open ocean. These global changes were recently
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Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.
2013-12-01
The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution
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Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions
Lempert, Robert J.; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus
2018-01-01
Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments
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Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ryan L Sriver
Full Text Available Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1 Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2 Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making
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Thorne, Karen M.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Perry, William M.; Takekawa, John Y.
2014-01-01
We evaluated the biogeomorphic processes of a large (309 ha) tidal salt marsh and examined factors that influence its ability to keep pace with relative sea-level rise (SLR). Detailed elevation data from 1995 and 2008 were compared with digital elevation models (DEMs) to assess marsh surface elevation change during this time. Overall, 37 % (113 ha) of the marsh increased in elevation at a rate that exceeded SLR, whereas 63 % (196 ha) of the area did not keep pace with SLR. Of the total area, 55 % (169 ha) subsided during the study period, but subsidence varied spatially across the marsh surface. To determine which biogeomorphic and spatial factors contributed to measured elevation change, we collected soil cores and determined percent and origin of organic matter (OM), particle size, bulk density (BD), and distance to nearest bay edge, levee, and channel. We then used Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) model selection to assess those variables most important to determine measured elevation change. Soil stable isotope compositions were evaluated to assess the source of the OM. The samples had limited percent OM by weight (-3, indicating that the soils had high mineral content with a relatively low proportion of pore space. The most parsimonious model with the highest AICc weight (0.53) included distance from bay's edge (i.e., lower intertidal) and distance from levee (i.e., upper intertidal). Close proximity to sediment source was the greatest factor in determining whether an area increased in elevation, whereas areas near landward levees experienced subsidence. Our study indicated that the ability of a marsh to keep pace with SLR varied across the surface, and assessing changes in elevation over time provides an alternative method to long-term accretion monitoring. SLR models that do not consider spatial variability of biogeomorphic and accretion processes may not correctly forecast marsh drowning rates, which may be especially true in modified and urbanized
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A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise: 2003 to 2009.
Gardner, Alex S; Moholdt, Geir; Cogley, J Graham; Wouters, Bert; Arendt, Anthony A; Wahr, John; Berthier, Etienne; Hock, Regine; Pfeffer, W Tad; Kaser, Georg; Ligtenberg, Stefan R M; Bolch, Tobias; Sharp, Martin J; Hagen, Jon Ove; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Paul, Frank
2013-05-17
Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world's oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during 2003-2009, with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was -259 ± 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 ± 13% of the observed sea level rise.
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Climate change, sea-level rise, and conservation: keeping island biodiversity afloat.
Courchamp, Franck; Hoffmann, Benjamin D; Russell, James C; Leclerc, Camille; Bellard, Céline
2014-03-01
Island conservation programs have been spectacularly successful over the past five decades, yet they generally do not account for impacts of climate change. Here, we argue that the full spectrum of climate change, especially sea-level rise and loss of suitable climatic conditions, should be rapidly integrated into island biodiversity research and management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Machguth, H; Rastner, P; Bolch, T; Mölg, N; Sørensen, L Sandberg; Aðalgeirsdottir, G; Van Angelen, J H; Van den Broeke, M R; Fettweis, X
2013-01-01
We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ∼90 000 km 2 ) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover. (letter)
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Central nervous system hypoxia in children due to near drowning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fitch, S.J.; Gerald, B.; Magill, H.L.; Tonkin, I.L.D.
1985-01-01
Fourteen children who experienced acute, profound central nervous system hypoxia secondary to near drowning, aspiration, or respiratory arrest underwent CT examination. During the first week after the episode, the most frequent finding was a loss of gray-white matter differentiation. Other findings included effacement of sulci and cisterns, focal areas of edema in the cerebral cortex or basal ganglia, and hemorrhagic infarctions of the basal ganglia. Subsequent CT scans obtained from two weeks to five months after the hypoxic episode showed progression of cerebral loss from cortical infarction with gyral hemorrhage and enhancement to global parenchymal atrophy. The prognosis is poor in these patients: seven children experienced severe neurologic deficits and seven died
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Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.
2010-01-01
Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.
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The global coastline dataset: the observed relation between erosion and sea-level rise
Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Luijendijk, A.; Hagenaars, G.
2017-12-01
Erosion of sandy coasts is considered one of the key risks of sea-level rise. Because sandy coastlines of the world are often highly populated, erosive coastline trends result in risk to populations and infrastructure. Most of our understanding of the relation between sea-level rise and coastal erosion is based on local or regional observations and generalizations of numerical and physical experiments. Until recently there was no reliable global scale assessment of the location of sandy coasts and their rate of erosion and accretion. Here we present the global coastline dataset that covers erosion indicators on a local scale with global coverage. The dataset uses our global coastline transects grid defined with an alongshore spacing of 250 m and a cross shore length extending 1 km seaward and 1 km landward. This grid matches up with pre-existing local grids where available. We present the latest results on validation of coastal-erosion trends (based on optical satellites) and classification of sandy versus non-sandy coasts. We show the relation between sea-level rise (based both on tide-gauges and multi-mission satellite altimetry) and observed erosion trends over the last decades, taking into account broken-coastline trends (for example due to nourishments).An interactive web application presents the publicly-accessible results using a backend based on Google Earth Engine. It allows both researchers and stakeholders to use objective estimates of coastline trends, particularly when authoritative sources are not available.
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Evidence for coral island formation during rising sea level in the central Pacific Ocean
Kench, Paul S.; Owen, Susan D.; Ford, Murray R.
2014-02-01
The timing and evolution of Jabat Island, Marshall Islands, was investigated using morphostratigraphic analysis and radiometric dating. Results show the first evidence of island building in the Pacific during latter stages of Holocene sea level rise. A three-phase model of development of Jabat is presented. Initially, rapid accumulation of coarse sediments on Jabat occurred 4800-4000 years B.P. across a reef flat higher than present level, as sea level continued to rise. During the highstand, island margins and particularly the western margin accreted vertically to 2.5-3.0 m above contemporary ridge elevations. This accumulation phase was dominated by sand-size sediments. Phase three involved deposition of gravel ridges on the northern reef, as sea level fell to present position. Jabat has remained geomorphically stable for the past 2000 years. Findings suggest reef platforms may accommodate the oldest reef islands in atoll systems, which may have profound implications for questions of prehistoric migration through Pacific archipelagos.
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Sea-level-rise trends off the Indian coasts during the last two decades
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Nidheesh, A.G.; Lengaigne, M.
The present communication discusses sea-level-rise trends in the north Indian Ocean, particularly off the Indian coasts, based on estimates derived from satellite altimeter and tide-gauge data. Altimeter data analysis over the 1993–2012 period...
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Krauss, Ken W.; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Stagg, Camille L.; Nestlerode, Janet A.; Russell, Marc J.; From, Andrew; Spivak, Amanda C.; Dantin, Darrin D.; Harvey, James E.; Almario, Alejandro E.
2017-01-01
Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.
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Krauss, Ken W; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J; Kirwan, Matthew L; Stagg, Camille L; Nestlerode, Janet A; Russell, Marc J; From, Andrew S; Spivak, Amanda C; Dantin, Darrin D; Harvey, James E; Almario, Alejandro E
2017-04-21
Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr -1 ), with surface elevation change of 4.2-11.0 mm yr -1 compared with 1.5-7.2 mm yr -1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.
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Mckee, Karen L.; Vervaeke, William
2018-01-01
To avoid submergence during sea-level rise, coastal wetlands build soil surfaces vertically through accumulation of inorganic sediment and organic matter. At climatic boundaries where mangroves are expanding and replacing salt marsh, wetland capacity to respond to sea-level rise may change. To compare how well mangroves and salt marshes accommodate sea-level rise, we conducted a manipulative field experiment in a subtropical plant community in the subsiding Mississippi River Delta. Experimental plots were established in spatially equivalent positions along creek banks in monospecific stands of Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) or Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and in mixed stands containing both species. To examine the effect of disturbance on elevation dynamics, vegetation in half of the plots was subjected to freezing (mangrove) or wrack burial (salt marsh), which caused shoot mortality. Vertical soil development was monitored for 6 years with the surface elevation table-marker horizon system. Comparison of land movement with relative sea-level rise showed that this plant community was experiencing an elevation deficit (i.e., sea level was rising faster than the wetland was building vertically) and was relying on elevation capital (i.e., relative position in the tidal frame) to survive. Although Avicennia plots had more elevation capital, suggesting longer survival, than Spartina or mixed plots, vegetation type had no effect on rates of accretion, vertical movement in root and sub-root zones, or net elevation change. Thus, these salt marsh and mangrove assemblages were accreting sediment and building vertically at equivalent rates. Small-scale disturbance of the plant canopy also had no effect on elevation trajectories—contrary to work in peat-forming wetlands showing elevation responses to changes in plant productivity. The findings indicate that in this deltaic setting with strong physical influences controlling elevation (sediment
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McKee, Karen L; Vervaeke, William C
2018-03-01
To avoid submergence during sea-level rise, coastal wetlands build soil surfaces vertically through accumulation of inorganic sediment and organic matter. At climatic boundaries where mangroves are expanding and replacing salt marsh, wetland capacity to respond to sea-level rise may change. To compare how well mangroves and salt marshes accommodate sea-level rise, we conducted a manipulative field experiment in a subtropical plant community in the subsiding Mississippi River Delta. Experimental plots were established in spatially equivalent positions along creek banks in monospecific stands of Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) or Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and in mixed stands containing both species. To examine the effect of disturbance on elevation dynamics, vegetation in half of the plots was subjected to freezing (mangrove) or wrack burial (salt marsh), which caused shoot mortality. Vertical soil development was monitored for 6 years with the surface elevation table-marker horizon system. Comparison of land movement with relative sea-level rise showed that this plant community was experiencing an elevation deficit (i.e., sea level was rising faster than the wetland was building vertically) and was relying on elevation capital (i.e., relative position in the tidal frame) to survive. Although Avicennia plots had more elevation capital, suggesting longer survival, than Spartina or mixed plots, vegetation type had no effect on rates of accretion, vertical movement in root and sub-root zones, or net elevation change. Thus, these salt marsh and mangrove assemblages were accreting sediment and building vertically at equivalent rates. Small-scale disturbance of the plant canopy also had no effect on elevation trajectories-contrary to work in peat-forming wetlands showing elevation responses to changes in plant productivity. The findings indicate that in this deltaic setting with strong physical influences controlling elevation (sediment accretion
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Smirnov, Vitaly; Dashkov, Leonid; Gorshkov, Roman; Burova, Olga; Romanova, Alina
2018-03-01
The article presents the analysis of the methodological approaches to cost estimation and determination of the capitalization level of high-rise construction objects. Factors determining the value of real estate were considered, three main approaches for estimating the value of real estate objects are given. The main methods of capitalization estimation were analyzed, the most reasonable method for determining the level of capitalization of high-rise buildings was proposed. In order to increase the value of real estate objects, the author proposes measures that enable to increase significantly the capitalization of the enterprise through more efficient use of intangible assets and goodwill.
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Boettle, M.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.
2016-02-01
In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.
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Idris, Ahamed H.; Bierens, Joost J. L. M.; Perkins, Gavin D.; Wenzel, Volker; Nadkarni, Vinay; Morley, Peter; Warner, David S.; Topjian, Alexis; Venema, Allart M.; Branche, Christine M.; Szpilman, David; Morizot-Leite, Luiz; Nitta, Masahiko; Lofgren, Bo; Webber, Jonathon; Grasner, Jan-Thorsten; Beerman, Stephen B.; Youn, Chun Song; Jost, Ulrich; Quan, Linda; Dezfulian, Cameron; Handley, Anthony J.; Hazinskia, Mary Fran
Background: Utstein-style guidelines use an established consensus process, endorsed by the international resuscitation community, to facilitate and structure resuscitation research and publication. The first "Guidelines for Uniform Reporting of Data From Drowning" were published over a decade ago.
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Idris, Ahamed H; Bierens, Joost J L M; Perkins, Gavin D; Wenzel, Volker; Nadkarni, Vinay; Morley, Peter; Warner, David S; Topjian, Alexis; Venema, Allart M; Branche, Christine M; Szpilman, David; Morizot-Leite, Luiz; Nitta, Masahiko; Løfgren, Bo; Webber, Jonathon; Gräsner, Jan-Thorsten; Beerman, Stephen B; Youn, Chun Song; Jost, Ulrich; Quan, Linda; Dezfulian, Cameron; Handley, Anthony J; Hazinski, Mary Fran
BACKGROUND: Utstein-style guidelines use an established consensus process, endorsed by the international resuscitation community, to facilitate and structure resuscitation research and publication. The first "Guidelines for Uniform Reporting of Data From Drowning" were published over a decade ago.
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Asugeni, James; MacLaren, David; Massey, Peter D; Speare, Rick
2015-12-01
There is little published research about mental health and climate change in the Pacific, including Solomon Islands. Solomon Islands has one of the highest rates of sea-level rise globally. The aim of this research was to document mental health issues related to sea-level rise for people in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. A cross-sectional study was carried out in six low-lying villages in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. The researcher travelled to villages by dugout canoe. In addition to quantitative, closed-ended questions, open-ended questions with villagers explored individual and community responses to rising sea level. Of 60 people asked, 57 completed the questionnaire. Of these, 90% reported having seen a change in the weather patterns. Nearly all participants reported that sea-level rise is affecting them and their family and is causing fear and worry on a personal and community level. Four themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: experience of physical impacts of climate change; worry about the future; adaptation to climate change; government response needed. Given predictions of ongoing sea-level rise in the Pacific it is essential that more research is conducted to further understand the human impact of climate change for small island states which will inform local, provincial and national-level mental health responses. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.
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Larsen, Curt; Clark, Inga; Guntenspergen, Glenn; Cahoon, Don; Caruso, Vincent; Hupp, Cliff; Yanosky, Tom
2004-01-01
The Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR), on the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay (figure 1), occupies an area less than 1 meter above sea level. The Refuge has been featured prominently in studies of the impact of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. Most notably, the refuge has been sited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a key example of 'wetland loss' attributable to rising sea level due to global temperature increase. Comparative studies of aerial photos taken since 1938 show an expanding area of open water in the central area of the refuge. The expanding area of open water can be shown to parallel the record of sea level rise over the past 60 years. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) manages the refuge to support migratory waterfowl and to preserve endangered upland species. High marsh vegetation is critical to FWS waterfowl management strategies. A broad area once occupied by high marsh has decreased with rising sea level. The FWS needs a planning tool to help predict current and future areas of high marsh available for waterfowl. 'Wetland loss' is a relative term. It is dependant on the boundaries chosen for measurement. Wetland vegetation, zoned by elevation and salinity (figure 3), respond to rising sea level. Wetlands migrate inland and upslope and may vary in areas depending on the adjacent land slopes. Refuge managers need a geospatial tool that allows them to predict future areas that will be converted to high and intertidal marsh. Shifts in location and area of coverage must be anticipated. Viability of a current marsh area is also important. When will sea level rise make short-term management strategies to maintain an area impractical? The USGS has developed an inundation model for the BNWR centered on the refuge and surrounding areas. Such models are simple in concept, but they require a detailed topographic map upon which to superimpose future sea level positions. The new system of LIDAR mapping of land and
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The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise
Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.
2014-06-01
Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.
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Rising cyclin-CDK levels order cell cycle events.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Catherine Oikonomou
Full Text Available Diverse mitotic events can be triggered in the correct order and time by a single cyclin-CDK. A single regulator could confer order and timing on multiple events if later events require higher cyclin-CDK than earlier events, so that gradually rising cyclin-CDK levels can sequentially trigger responsive events: the "quantitative model" of ordering.This 'quantitative model' makes predictions for the effect of locking cyclin at fixed levels for a protracted period: at low cyclin levels, early events should occur rapidly, while late events should be slow, defective, or highly variable (depending on threshold mechanism. We titrated the budding yeast mitotic cyclin Clb2 within its endogenous expression range to a stable, fixed level and measured time to occurrence of three mitotic events: growth depolarization, spindle formation, and spindle elongation, as a function of fixed Clb2 level. These events require increasingly more Clb2 according to their normal order of occurrence. Events occur efficiently and with low variability at fixed Clb2 levels similar to those observed when the events normally occur. A second prediction of the model is that increasing the rate of cyclin accumulation should globally advance timing of all events. Moderate (<2-fold overexpression of Clb2 accelerates all events of mitosis, resulting in consistently rapid sequential cell cycles. However, this moderate overexpression also causes a significant frequency of premature mitoses leading to inviability, suggesting that Clb2 expression level is optimized to balance the fitness costs of variability and catastrophe.We conclude that mitotic events are regulated by discrete cyclin-CDK thresholds. These thresholds are sequentially triggered as cyclin increases, yielding reliable order and timing. In many biological processes a graded input must be translated into discrete outputs. In such systems, expression of the central regulator is likely to be tuned to an optimum level, as we
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Constraining the Antarctic contribution to interglacial sea-level rise
Naish, T.; Mckay, R. M.; Barrett, P. J.; Levy, R. H.; Golledge, N. R.; Deconto, R. M.; Horgan, H. J.; Dunbar, G. B.
2015-12-01
Observations, models and paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that Antarctica's marine-based ice sheets behave in an unstable manner with episodes of rapid retreat in response to warming climate. Understanding the processes involved in this "marine ice sheet instability" is key for improving estimates of Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise. Another motivating factor is that far-field sea-level reconstructions and ice sheet models imply global mean sea level (GMSL) was up to 20m and 10m higher, respectively, compared with present day, during the interglacials of the warm Pliocene (~4-3Ma) and Late Pleistocene (at ~400ka and 125ka). This was when atmospheric CO2 was between 280 and 400ppm and global average surface temperatures were 1- 3°C warmer, suggesting polar ice sheets are highly sensitive to relatively modest increases in climate forcing. Such magnitudes of GMSL rise not only require near complete melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but a substantial retreat of marine-based sectors of East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent geological drilling initiatives on the continental margin of Antarctica from both ship- (e.g. IODP; International Ocean Discovery Program) and ice-based (e.g. ANDRILL/Antarctic Geological Drilling) platforms have provided evidence supporting retreat of marine-based ice. However, without direct access through the ice sheet to archives preserved within sub-glacial sedimentary basins, the volume and extent of ice sheet retreat during past interglacials cannot be directly constrained. Sediment cores have been successfully recovered from beneath ice shelves by the ANDRILL Program and ice streams by the WISSARD (Whillans Ice Stream Sub-glacial Access Research Drilling) Project. Together with the potential of the new RAID (Rapid Access Ice Drill) initiative, these demonstrate the technological feasibility of accessing the subglacial bed and deeper sedimentary archives. In this talk I will outline the
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Sea level rise under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
Schleussner, C. F.; Nauels, A.; Rogelj, J.; Mengel, M.; Meinshausen, M.
2017-12-01
In order to assess future sea level rise and its impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present Sea Level Rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative Forcing Targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for latest research on additional Antarctic rapid discharge dynamics from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 102 cm (likely range: 77 to 135 cm) for SSP1, 118 cm (90 to 151 cm) for SSP2, 118 cm (91 to 149 cm) for SSP3, 107 cm (81 to 137 cm) for SSP4, and 144 cm (112 to 184 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios is dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 68 cm (56 to 87 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 76 cm (61 to 107 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 90 cm (68 to 120 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 105 cm (79 to 136 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual rates of SLR are 6 mm/yr and 19 mm/yr for the FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. For limiting median 2100 SSP SLR projections to below 80 cm, we find that 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial should not exceed around 860 GtC, with the global coal phase-out nearly completed. For SSP mitigation scenarios, the median 2050 carbon price of 90 US$2005 tCO2-1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 80 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.
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The anticipated spatial loss of microtidal beaches in the next 100 years due to sea level rise.
Alexandrakis, G.; Poulos, S.
2012-04-01
The anticipated sea level rise is expected to influence on a global scale the earth coast in the near future and it is considered to be a main factor related to coastal retreat, with beach zones being among the most vulnerable coastal landforms. Records for the period 1890-1990 have shown that sea level has already risen by 18cm (min: +10cm, max: +25cm), while the projected to 2100 sea level rise has estimated to be 20 to 50cm (IPCC, 2007). It has to be highlighted that a small rise of few tens of meters would cause shoreline retreat of a few to tens meters in the case of low lying coasts, i.e. beach zones (e.g. Bruun 1962, Nichol and Letherman, 1995, Ciavola and Corbau, 2002). Within the concept of climate change, sea level rise could also being related, in regional scale, to changes of meteorological factors such as intensity, duration and direction of the onshore blowing winds, variation in atmospheric pressure. In the microtidal Greek waters temporary changes in sea level exceeds the 1 m (HHS, 2004) This work investigates the impact of sea level rise to sixteen beach zones along the Greek coast. More specifically, shoreline retreat has been estimated for time periods of 10, 20, 50 and 100 years for the corresponding sea level rise of 0,038, 0,076m, 0,19m and 0,38m, according to the A1B scenario of IPCC (2007) and utilizing Dean's (1991) equation; the latter includes in the calculations both the effects of the anticipated sea level rise and the associated storm surge The appropriate morphodynamic and sedimentological data used for the estimation of beach retreat has been deduced from field measurements. Finally, the percentage of the sub-aerial area lost for each beach zone, under investigation, has been estimated. The results show that coastline retreat follows a liner increase in the case of eleven out of the 16 beach zones, for a time period of 100 years. Santava beach zone (inner Messiniakos Gulf) undergoes most of erosion in the first period of 20 years
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Applegate, Patrick J; Keller, Klaus
2015-01-01
Albedo modification (AM) is sometimes characterized as a potential means of avoiding climate threshold responses, including large-scale ice sheet mass loss. Previous work has investigated the effects of AM on total sea-level rise over the present century, as well as AM’s ability to reduce long-term (≫10 3 yr) contributions to sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). These studies have broken new ground, but neglect important feedbacks in the GIS system, or are silent on AM’s effectiveness over the short time scales that may be most relevant for decision-making (<10 3 yr). Here, we assess AM’s ability to reduce GIS sea-level contributions over decades to centuries, using a simplified ice sheet model. We drive this model using a business-as-usual base temperature forcing scenario, as well as scenarios that reflect AM-induced temperature stabilization or temperature drawdown. Our model results suggest that (i) AM produces substantial near-term reductions in the rate of GIS-driven sea-level rise. However, (ii) sea-level rise contributions from the GIS continue after AM begins. These continued sea level rise contributions persist for decades to centuries after temperature stabilization and temperature drawdown begin, unless AM begins in the next few decades. Moreover, (iii) any regrowth of the GIS is delayed by decades or centuries after temperature drawdown begins, and is slow compared to pre-AM rates of mass loss. Combined with recent work that suggests AM would not prevent mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, our results provide a nuanced picture of AM’s possible effects on future sea-level rise. (letter)
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Subsidence, Sea Level Rise, and Seismicity in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeffrey Mount
2005-03-01
Full Text Available Anthropogenic accommodation space, or that space in the Delta that lies below sea level and is filled neither with sediment nor water, serves as a useful measure of the regional consequences of Delta subsidence and sea level rise. Microbial oxidation and compaction of organic-rich soils due to farming activity is the primary cause of Delta subsidence. During the period 1900-2000, subsidence created approximately 2.5 billion cubic meters of anthropogenic accommodation space in the Delta. From 2000-2050, subsidence rates will slow due to depletion of organic material and better land use practices. However, by 2050 the Delta will contain more than 3 billion cubic meters of anthropogenic accommodation space due to continued subsidence and sea level rise. An Accommodation Space Index, which relates subaqueous accommodation space to anthropogenic accommodation space, provides an indicator of past and projected Delta conditions. While subsidence and sea level rise create increasing anthropogenic accommodation space in the Delta, they also lead to a regional increase in the forces that can cause levee failure. Although these forces take many forms, a Levee Force Index can be calculated that is a proxy for the cumulative forces acting on levees. The Levee Force Index increases significantly over the next 50 years demonstrating regional increases in the potential for island flooding. Based on continuing increases in the Levee Force Index and the Accommodation Space Index, and limited support for Delta levee upgrades, there will be a tendency for increases in and impacts of island flooding, with escalating costs for repairs. Additionally, there is a two-in-three chance that 100-year recurrence interval floods or earthquakes will cause catastrophic flooding and significant change in the Delta by 2050. Currently, the California Bay-Delta Authority has no overarching policy that addresses the consequences of, and potential responses to, gradual or abrupt
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Harris, Daniel L.; Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Power, Hannah; Canavesio, Remy; Collin, Antoine; Pomeroy, Andrew; Webster, Jody M.; Parravicini, Valeriano
2018-01-01
Coral reefs are diverse ecosystems that support millions of people worldwide by providing coastal protection from waves. Climate change and human impacts are leading to degraded coral reefs and to rising sea levels, posing concerns for the protection of tropical coastal regions in the near future. We use a wave dissipation model calibrated with empirical wave data to calculate the future increase of back-reef wave height. We show that, in the near future, the structural complexity of coral reefs is more important than sea-level rise in determining the coastal protection provided by coral reefs from average waves. We also show that a significant increase in average wave heights could occur at present sea level if there is sustained degradation of benthic structural complexity. Our results highlight that maintaining the structural complexity of coral reefs is key to ensure coastal protection on tropical coastlines in the future. PMID:29503866
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Tewari, S.; Palmer, W.; Manning, F.
2017-12-01
Climate change can affect coastal areas in a variety of ways. Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise, changes in the frequency/intensity of storms, increase in precipitation and storm surges. The resilience of transportation infrastructure located in Louisiana's coastal zone, against storm surges and climatic sea-level rise is critical. The net change in sea-level is affected by the increase in global sea level as well as land movement up or down. There are many places in coastal Louisiana that have a high subsidence rate. The subsidence could be related to excess extraction activities of oil and water, natural and/or human induced compaction, and tectonic movement. Where the land is sinking, the rate of relative sea level rise is larger than the global rate. Some of the fastest rates of relative sea level rise in the United States are occurring in areas where the land is sinking, including parts of the Gulf Coast. For example, coastal Louisiana has seen its relative sea level rise by eight inches or more in the last 50 years, which is about twice the global rate. Subsiding land in the Gulf area worsens the effects of relative sea level rise, increasing the risk of flooding in cities, inhabited islands, and tidal wetlands. The research team is investigating the trends for sea-level rise and land subsidence in coastal region of Louisiana. The variability in storm surges and its potential implication on the transportation infrastructure in the region is the focus of the study. The spatial maps will be created for spatial trends. This is extremely useful in being prepared for long-term natural hazards. The results of this study will be helpful to LADOTD and infrastructure managers and officials who are tasked with resiliency planning and management. Research results will also directly benefit university researchers in the state, Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority and LADOTD/LTRC through collaborative activity which will educate both professionals and the
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hu, G.
2002-01-01
The upstream migration of salt water into the historic freshwater reaches of the Loxahatchee River is the likely cause of the altered floodplain cypress forest community along the Northwest Fork and some of its tributaries. Mangroves are replacing cypress forest and areas of mixed swamp hardwoods have reacted to different degrees to the saltwater stress. A hydrodynamic/salinity model was developed to study the influence of freshwater input, tidal inlet deepening and sea level rise on the salinity regime in the estuary. Field data analysis and model simulations indicate that the salinity condition in the estuary is sensitive to the amount of freshwater input from the watershed. During dry seasons the salt front advances into areas that were historically freshwater habitats. Historic evidence indicates that the Loxahatchee estuary was periodically closed and opened to the sea. Due to the active long shore sediment transport, the tidal inlet was probably characterized by shifting sandbars through which ran a narrow and unstable channel. Inlet dredging in the past several decades has increased the hydraulic conveyance of the inlet and the tidal influence into the estuary. The sea level record from a site in south Florida indicates that the sea level has been rising at a rate of approximately 2.3-mm per year. The rise of sea level in the past century has probably raised the mean tide level by about 23 centimeters. If the sea level rise continues as predicted, it is foreseeable that the salt front will move further upstream along with the sea level rise. Field data analysis and the preliminary model output led us to believe that the advance of seawater up the estuary is the combined effect of watershed hydrological changes, inlet deepening and sea level rise. (author)
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Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.
2018-02-01
This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.
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Sea level rise in the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel and impacts of a Severn Barrage
Ahmadian, Reza; Olbert, Agnieszka I.; Hartnett, Michael; Falconer, Roger A.
2014-05-01
Many research projects in recent years have focused on marine renewable energy devices and structures due to the growing interest in marine renewable energy. These devices and structures have very different life spans. Schemes such as the Severn Barrage in the UK, as originally proposed by the Severn Tidal Power Group (STPG), would be the largest tidal renewable energy generation project in the world and would be operational for well over a century if built. Due to the long working life of some of these marine renewable energy schemes, it is important to study the impacts of climate change on such schemes, and particularly sea level rise. This study focuses on investigating the impacts of sea level rise due to climate change on the largest macro-tidal estuary in the UK, namely the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel, and the alterations of the impacts and the performance of the Severn Barrage as a result of climate change. A hierarchy of computer models was implemented to identify the more localised impacts of climate change in the region of the study. Moreover, the potential benefits of the barrage on reducing flood risk, as well as the impact of climate change and the barrage on intertidal mudflats were investigated. The model predictions showed that the barrage would reduce flood risk due to the sea level rise. Furthermore, annual power output and the initial reduction in flood risk of the barrage would not be affected by sea level rise.
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Tank 241-SY-101 surface level rise remediation test and evaluation plan for transfer system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
BAUER, R.E.
1999-01-01
The purpose of this testing and evaluation plan (TEP) is to provide the high level guidance on testing requirements for ensuring that the equipment and systems to be implemented for remediation of the SY-101 waste level rise USQ are effective
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tariq Cachalia
2016-08-01
Full Text Available A young male suffered multiple severe injuries after a fall and near-drowning. On presentation to the emergency department (ED, he was in a critical and unstable condition and his chances of survival were deemed very low. This case illustrates the management of the hypothermic multi-trauma patient and the remarkable recovery made possible by a high standard of care. Keywords: Polytrauma, Shock, Hypothermia, Coagulopathy, Trauma care
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Potential of sea level rise impact on South China Sea: a preliminary ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The effect of the sea level rise was involved the existence of sea water intrusion and coastal erosion phenomenon in the coastal of Terengganu. This study aim to determine fluctuation of high and low tides of the South China Sea in their relation to water quality value of Marang and Paka Rivers as well as from wells ...
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Sea-level rise along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Northern Italy) in 2100: scenarios and impacts
Perini, Luisa; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Luciani, Paolo; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia; Spada, Giorgio
2017-12-01
As a consequence of climate change and land subsidence, coastal zones are directly impacted by sea-level rise. In some particular areas, the effects on the ecosystem and urbanisation are particularly enhanced. We focus on the Emilia-Romagna (E-R) coastal plain in Northern Italy, bounded by the Po river mouth to the north and by the Apennines to the south. The plain is ˜ 130 km long and is characterised by wide areas below mean sea level, in part made up of reclaimed wetlands. In this context, several morphodynamic factors make the shore and back shore unstable. During next decades, the combined effects of land subsidence and of the sea-level rise as a result of climate change are expected to enhance the shoreline instability, leading to further retreat. The consequent loss of beaches would impact the economy of the region, which is tightly connected with tourism infrastructures. Furthermore, the loss of wetlands and dunes would threaten the ecosystem, which is crucial for the preservation of life and the environment. These specific conditions show the importance of a precise definition of the possible local impacts of the ongoing and future climate variations. The aim of this work is the characterisation of vulnerability in different sectors of the coastal plain and the recognition of the areas in which human intervention is urgently required. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) sea-level scenarios are merged with new high-resolution terrain models, current data for local subsidence and predictions of the flooding model in_CoastFlood in order to develop different scenarios for the impact of sea-level rise projected to year 2100. First, the potential land loss due to the combined effect of subsidence and sea-level rise is extrapolated. Second, the increase in floodable areas as a result of storm surges is quantitatively determined. The results are expected to support the regional mitigation and adaptation strategies
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Kakizaki, Eiji; Kozawa, Shuji; Sakai, Masahiro; Yukawa, Nobuhiro
2009-03-01
We detected numerous bioluminescent bacteria in blood samples from two cadavers that had been immersed in estuarine environments. Autopsy, diatomaceous and toxicological findings indicated death by drowning, which agreed with environmental aspects and the findings of police investigations. Bioluminescent bacteria appeared in blood samples cultured on selective agar containing 2%, 3% and 4% NaCl after about 18h. Blood from the left side of the heart, the right side of the heart and the femoral vein generated 7.0 x 10(2), 2.0 x 10(4) and 8.0 x 10(2) cfu/ml of blood (case 1), and 1.8 x 10(4), 1.1 x 10(3) and 2.5 x 10(1) cfu/ml (case 2) of bioluminescent colonies, respectively, in agar containing 4% NaCl. Homologous analysis based on the 16S rRNA gene also identified the bioluminescent colonies as Vibrio fischeri and V. harveyi, which normally inhabit seawater. This simple assay might serve as an additional indicator to support a conclusion of death by drowning together with the diatom test.
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Morrongiello, Barbara A; Sandomierski, Megan; Spence, Jeffrey R
2014-07-01
The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine how children's participation in swim lessons impacts parents' appraisals of children's drowning risk and need for supervision. Parents with 2-5-year old children enrolled in community swim lessons completed the same survey measures up to 4 times over an 8-month period. Multilevel regression analyses examining temporal relationships between parents' perceptions of their child's swim ability, supervision needs around water, and children's ability to keep themselves safe in drowning risk situations revealed that as children progressed through swim lessons, parents' perceptions of their child's swim ability and their belief that children are capable of keeping themselves safe around water increased. Further, the relation between parents' perceptions of swim ability and judgments of children's supervision needs was mediated through parents' judgment about their child's ability to secure their own safety near water. As parents perceive their child to be accumulating swim skills, they increasingly believe that children are capable of keeping themselves from drowning, and as a result, that less active parent supervision of their child is necessary. Implications of these findings for intervention efforts to counter this unwelcome way of thinking that may arise through continued participation in swim lessons are discussed. Incorporating a parent-focused component into children's learn-to-swim programs to promote more realistic appraisals of children's supervision needs and drowning risks may further enhance the positive benefits that swim lessons have for children's safety.
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Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the Nile Delta Coastal ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
Extrants. Articles de revue. Facing the Tide - REVOLVE Magazine: Water Around the Mediterranean. Téléchargez le PDF. Rapports. Adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise in the Nile Delta coastal zone, Egypt : final project report. Téléchargez le PDF ...
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Perera, K. A. R. S.; De Silva, K. H. W. L.; Amarasinghe, M. D.
2018-02-01
Unique location in the land-sea interface makes mangrove ecosystems most vulnerable to the impacts of predicted sea level rise due to increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Among others, carbon sink function of these tropical ecosystems that contribute to reduce rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature, could potentially be affected most. Present study was undertaken to explore the extent of impact of the predicted sea level rise for the region on total organic carbon (TOC) pools of the mangrove ecosystems in Negombo estuary located on the west coast of Sri Lanka. Extents of the coastal inundations under minimum (0.09 m) and maximum (0.88 m) sea level rise scenarios of IPCC for 2100 and an intermediate level of 0.48 m were determined with GIS tools. Estimated total capacity of organic carbon retention by these mangrove areas was 499.45 Mg C ha- 1 of which 84% (418.98 Mg C ha- 1) sequestered in the mangrove soil and 16% (80.56 Mg C ha- 1) in the vegetation. Total extent of land area potentially affected by inundation under lowest sea level rise scenario was 218.9 ha, while it was 476.2 ha under intermediate rise and 696.0 ha with the predicted maximum sea level rise. Estimated rate of loss of carbon sink function due to inundation by the sea level rise of 0.09 m is 6.30 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 while the intermediate sea level rise indicated a loss of 9.92 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 and under maximum sea level rise scenario, this loss further increases up to 11.32 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1. Adaptation of mangrove plants to withstand inundation and landward migration along with escalated photosynthetic rates, augmented by changing rainfall patterns and availability of nutrients may contribute to reduce the rate of loss of carbon sink function of these mangrove ecosystems. Predictions over change in carbon sequestration function of mangroves in Negombo estuary reveals that it is not only affected by oceanographic and hydrological alterations associated with sea level rise but also by anthropogenic
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Djunaidi
2004-01-01
The expansion of air volume in the delay chamber shows in rise water level of reactor pool during the operation. The rises of water level in the reactor pool is not quite from the expansion of air volume in the delay chamber, but some influence the primary pump operation. The purpose evaluated of influence primary pump is to know the influence primary pump power concerning the rise water level during the reactor operation. From the data collection during 15 MW power operation in the last core 42 the influence of primary pump operation concerning the rise water level in the reactor pool is 34.48 % from the total increased after operation during 12 days. (author)
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radek Malý
2016-11-01
Full Text Available The motif of a beautiful drowned girl or, generally, a young woman related to the water environment has appeared in European art since antiquity. The crucial turning point in the approach to the figure of a girl tragically related to the water element came with Shakespeare’s Hamlet: it features the strong female character of Hamlet’s lover Ophelia, who goes mad and tragically drowns after the Prince’s refusal. Her death became a popular subject in the field of fine arts and literature, with its popularity culminating in emotionally charged eras; i.e. Romanticism and, later,Symbolism and Decadence. J. A. Rimbaud’s poem Ophelia had a far-reaching influence on German poetry where the motif of a drowned girl became a frequent subject. This relationship was initiated by the translation of Rimbaud’s poems into German by Karl Klammer. The paper examines his influence on the poems of the expressionists Georg Heym, Georg Trakl, and Gottfried Benn.
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Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise
Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.
2003-01-01
Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277
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Tursina, Syamsidik, Kato, Shigeru
2017-10-01
In a long term, sea level rise is anticipated to give devastating effects on Banda Aceh, as one of the coastal cities in the northern tip of Sumatra. The growth of the population and buildings in the city has come to the stage where the coastal area is vulnerable to any coastal hazard. Some public facilities and settlements have been constructed and keep expanding in the future. According to TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite images, 7 mm/year the sea level has been risen between 1992 and 2015 in this area. It is estimated that in the next 100 years, there will be 700 mm additional sea level rise which will give a setback more over to a rather flat area around the coast. This research is aim at investigating the influence of sea level rise toward the tsunami inundation on the land area particularly the impacts on Banda Aceh city. Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) simulation numerically generated tsunami propagation. Topography and bathymetry data were collected from GEBCO and updated with the available nautical chart (DISHIDROS, JICA, and field measurements). Geological movement of the underwater fault was generated using Piatanesi and Lorito of 9.15 Mw 2004 multi-fault scenario. The inundation area produced by COMCOT revealed that the inundation area was expanded to several hundred meters from the shoreline. To investigate the impacts of tsunami wave on Banda Aceh, the inundation area were digitized and analyzed with Quantum GIS spatial tools. The Quantum GIS analyzed inundations area affected by the projected tsunami. It will give a new tsunami-prone coastal area map induced by sea level rise in 100 years.
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Impacts of Global Warming and Sea Level Rise on Service Life of Chloride-Exposed Concrete Structures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiao-Jian Gao
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Global warming will increase the rate of chloride ingress and the rate of steel corrosion of concrete structures. Furthermore, in coastal (atmospheric marine zones, sea level rise will reduce the distance of concrete structures from the coast and increase the surface chloride content. This study proposes a probabilistic model for analyzing the effects of global warming and sea level rise on the service life of coastal concrete structures. First, in the corrosion initiation stage, an improved chloride diffusion model is proposed to determine chloride concentration. The Monte Carlo method is employed to calculate the service life in the corrosion initiation stage; Second, in the corrosion propagation stage, a numerical model is proposed to calculate the rate of corrosion, probability of corrosion cracking, and service life. Third, overall service life is determined as the sum of service life in the corrosion initiation and corrosion propagation stages. After considering the impacts of global warming and sea level rise, the analysis results show that for concrete structures having a service life of 50 years, the service life decreases by about 5%.
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A global standard for monitoring coastal wetland vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise
Webb, Edward L.; Friess, Daniel A.; Krauss, Ken W.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Phelps, Jacob
2013-01-01
Sea-level rise threatens coastal salt-marshes and mangrove forests around the world, and a key determinant of coastal wetland vulnerability is whether its surface elevation can keep pace with rising sea level. Globally, a large data gap exists because wetland surface and shallow subsurface processes remain unaccounted for by traditional vulnerability assessments using tide gauges. Moreover, those processes vary substantially across wetlands, so modelling platforms require relevant local data. The low-cost, simple, high-precision rod surface-elevation table–marker horizon (RSET-MH) method fills this critical data gap, can be paired with spatial data sets and modelling and is financially and technically accessible to every country with coastal wetlands. Yet, RSET deployment has been limited to a few regions and purposes. A coordinated expansion of monitoring efforts, including development of regional networks that could support data sharing and collaboration, is crucial to adequately inform coastal climate change adaptation policy at several scales.
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Sinking ships: conservation options for endemic taxa threatened by sea level rise
Joyce Maschinski; Michael S. Ross; Hong Liu; Joe O' Brien; Erick J. von Wettberg; Kristin E. Haskins
2011-01-01
Low-elevation islands face threats from sea level rise (SLR) and increased storm intensity. Evidence of endangered speciesâ population declines and shifts in vegetation communities are already underway in the Florida Keys. SLR predictions indicate large areas of these habitats may be eliminated in the next century. Using the Florida Keys as a model system, we present a...
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Borchert, Sinéad M.; Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen
2018-01-01
Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landwards in response to rising seas. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate migration. Low‐lying urban areas can constrain migration and lead to wetland loss (i.e. coastal squeeze), especially where existing wetlands cannot keep pace with rising seas via vertical adjustments. In many estuaries, there is a pressing need to identify landward migration corridors and better quantify the potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze.We quantified and compared the area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and the area where urban development is expected to prevent migration for 39 estuaries along the wetland‐rich USA Gulf of Mexico coast. We did so under three sea level rise scenarios (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m by 2100).Within the region, the potential for wetland migration is highest within certain estuaries in Louisiana and southern Florida (e.g. Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays, Mermentau River, Barataria Bay, and the North and South Ten Thousand Islands estuaries).The potential for coastal squeeze is highest in estuaries containing major metropolitan areas that extend into low‐lying lands. The Charlotte Harbor, Tampa Bay, and Crystal‐Pithlachascotee estuaries (Florida) have the highest amounts of urban land expected to constrain wetland migration. Urban barriers to migration are also high in the Galveston Bay (Texas) and Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays (Louisiana) estuaries.Synthesis and applications. Coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem services that benefit human health and well‐being, including shoreline protection and fish and wildlife habitat. As the rate of sea level rise accelerates in response to climate change, coastal wetland resources could be lost in areas that lack space for landward migration. Migration corridors are particularly important in highly urbanized estuaries where, due to low‐lying coastal
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Sanders, Christian J; Smoak, Joseph M; Waters, Mathew N; Sanders, Luciana M; Brandini, Nilva; Patchineelam, Sambasiva R
2012-06-01
Mangroves sediments contain large reservoirs of organic material (OM) as mangrove ecosystems produce large quantities and rapidly burial OM. Sediment accumulation rates of approximately 2.0 mm year(-1), based on (210)Pb(ex) dating, were estimated at the margin of two well-developed mangrove forest in southern Brazil. Regional data point to a relative sea level (RSL) rise of up to ∼4.0 mm year(-1). This RSL rise in turn, may directly influence the origin and quantity of organic matter (OM) deposited along mangrove sediments. Lithostratigraphic changes show that sand deposition is replacing the mud (<63 μm) fraction and OM content is decreasing in successively younger sediments. Sediment accumulation in coastal areas that are not keeping pace with sea level rise is potentially conducive to the observed shifts in particle size and OM content. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Schile, Lisa M; Callaway, John C; Morris, James T; Stralberg, Diana; Parker, V Thomas; Kelly, Maggi
2014-01-01
Tidal marshes maintain elevation relative to sea level through accumulation of mineral and organic matter, yet this dynamic accumulation feedback mechanism has not been modeled widely in the context of accelerated sea-level rise. Uncertainties exist about tidal marsh resiliency to accelerated sea-level rise, reduced sediment supply, reduced plant productivity under increased inundation, and limited upland habitat for marsh migration. We examined marsh resiliency under these uncertainties using the Marsh Equilibrium Model, a mechanistic, elevation-based soil cohort model, using a rich data set of plant productivity and physical properties from sites across the estuarine salinity gradient. Four tidal marshes were chosen along this gradient: two islands and two with adjacent uplands. Varying century sea-level rise (52, 100, 165, 180 cm) and suspended sediment concentrations (100%, 50%, and 25% of current concentrations), we simulated marsh accretion across vegetated elevations for 100 years, applying the results to high spatial resolution digital elevation models to quantify potential changes in marsh distributions. At low rates of sea-level rise and mid-high sediment concentrations, all marshes maintained vegetated elevations indicative of mid/high marsh habitat. With century sea-level rise at 100 and 165 cm, marshes shifted to low marsh elevations; mid/high marsh elevations were found only in former uplands. At the highest century sea-level rise and lowest sediment concentrations, the island marshes became dominated by mudflat elevations. Under the same sediment concentrations, low salinity brackish marshes containing highly productive vegetation had slower elevation loss compared to more saline sites with lower productivity. A similar trend was documented when comparing against a marsh accretion model that did not model vegetation feedbacks. Elevation predictions using the Marsh Equilibrium Model highlight the importance of including vegetation responses to sea-level
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VARIATION OF CHART DATUM TOWARDS MARITIME DELIMITATION DUE TO RISING SEA LEVEL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. R. M. Faizuddin
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The importance of Chart Datum in hydrographic surveying is inarguable because its determination is part of the process to obtain the actual depth of bathymetry. The Chart Datum has a relationship with the determination of base points because any uncertainty of the base points would definitely cause uncertainty to the determination of the maritime baseline. If there is any doubt on the baselines, it will then cause doubt on the maritime zones as well which includes the equidistant line that forms the border between the two countries. However, due to the ongoing rising sea level, there has been some variations of the Chart Datum in some areas in Malaysia. This research discusses about the variation of Mean Sea Level and Chart Datum for the tide gauge stations at Geting, Cendering, Sedili and Tioman at East Coast and Kukup, Langkawi, Lumut and Penang at the West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The tidal analysis was carried out by using the 23 years of data beginning at 1993 to 2015. The observed tidal data for 23 years were processed and analysed by using GeoTide software. In this research, the Harmonic Analysis technique was used in order to calculate the values of Mean Sea Level and the Chart Datum while the slope of the shoreline is modelled by using Global Mapper. The linear trend of the Mean Sea Level and the Chart Datum was analysed to determine the increase of the annual sea level in millimetres accuracy and also to determine the variation of the Chart Datum for each tidal station and its impact towards maritime baseline. The result has shown that the linear trend of sea level rise varies from 24 millimetres per year up to 168 millimetres per year at the East Coast and 24 millimetres per year up to 96 millimetres per year at the West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. As for the maritime baseline, results has indicated that there exist shifting in the horizontal which are varies from 1.564 metres per year to 3.299 metres per year at the East Coast
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Variation of Chart Datum Towards Maritime Delimitation due to Rising Sea Level
Faizuddin, A. R. M.; Razali, M. M.
2017-10-01
The importance of Chart Datum in hydrographic surveying is inarguable because its determination is part of the process to obtain the actual depth of bathymetry. The Chart Datum has a relationship with the determination of base points because any uncertainty of the base points would definitely cause uncertainty to the determination of the maritime baseline. If there is any doubt on the baselines, it will then cause doubt on the maritime zones as well which includes the equidistant line that forms the border between the two countries. However, due to the ongoing rising sea level, there has been some variations of the Chart Datum in some areas in Malaysia. This research discusses about the variation of Mean Sea Level and Chart Datum for the tide gauge stations at Geting, Cendering, Sedili and Tioman at East Coast and Kukup, Langkawi, Lumut and Penang at the West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The tidal analysis was carried out by using the 23 years of data beginning at 1993 to 2015. The observed tidal data for 23 years were processed and analysed by using GeoTide software. In this research, the Harmonic Analysis technique was used in order to calculate the values of Mean Sea Level and the Chart Datum while the slope of the shoreline is modelled by using Global Mapper. The linear trend of the Mean Sea Level and the Chart Datum was analysed to determine the increase of the annual sea level in millimetres accuracy and also to determine the variation of the Chart Datum for each tidal station and its impact towards maritime baseline. The result has shown that the linear trend of sea level rise varies from 24 millimetres per year up to 168 millimetres per year at the East Coast and 24 millimetres per year up to 96 millimetres per year at the West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. As for the maritime baseline, results has indicated that there exist shifting in the horizontal which are varies from 1.564 metres per year to 3.299 metres per year at the East Coast and from 1
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Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, R J; Saiful Islam, A K M; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, J A
2015-07-01
Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end
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Validation and Comparison of a Model of the Effect of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands.
Mogensen, Laura A; Rogers, Kerrylee
2018-01-22
Models are used to project coastal wetland distribution under future sea-level rise scenarios to assist decision-making. Model validation and comparison was used to investigate error and uncertainty in the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, a readily available model with minimal validation, particularly for wetlands beyond North America. Accurate parameterisation is required to improve the performance of the model, and indeed any spatial model. Consideration of tidal attenuation further enhances model performance, particularly for coastal wetlands located within estuaries along wave-dominated coastlines. The model does not simulate vegetation changes that are known to occur, particularly when sedimentation exceeds rates of sea-level rise resulting in shoreline progradation. Model performance was reasonable over decadal timescales, decreasing as the time-scale of retrospection increased due to compounding of errors. Comparison with other deterministic models showed reasonable agreement by 2100. However, given the uncertainty of the future and the unpredictable nature of coastal wetlands, it is difficult to ascertain which model could be realistic enough to meet its intended purpose. Model validation and comparison are useful for assessing model efficacy and parameterisation, and should be applied before application of any spatially explicit model of coastal wetland response to sea-level rise.
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Possible impacts of sea-level rise on the Diep river/Rietvlei system, Cape-Town
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Hughes, P
1993-10-01
Full Text Available Many of the Cape Province's estuaries and tidal inlets have sandy connections to the sea and are often intensively developed for industrial or residential purposes. The possible impacts of sea-level rise are of considerable interest...
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Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.
2017-12-01
Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.
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Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios
Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.
2017-12-01
Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes
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Assessing the impact of sea-level rise on a vulnerable coastal community in Accra, Ghana
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kwasi Appeaning Addo
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Climate change and its associated sea-level rise are expected to significantly affect vulnerable coastal communities. Although the extent of the impact will be localised, its assessment will adopt a monitoring approach that applies globally. The topography of the beach, the type of geological material and the level of human intervention will determine the extent of the area to be flooded and the rate at which the shoreline will move inland. Gleefe, a coastal community in Ghana, has experienced frequent flooding in recent times due to the increasing occurrence of storm surge and sea-level rise. This study used available geospatial data and field measurements to determine how the beach topography has contributed to the incidence of flooding at Gleefe. The topography is generally low-lying. Sections of the beach have elevations of around 1 m, which allows seawater to move inland during very high tide. Accelerated sea-level rise as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC will destroy homes of the inhabitants and inundate the Densu wetlands behind the beach. Destruction of infrastructure will render the inhabitants homeless, whilst flooding of the wetlands will destroy the habitats of migratory birds and some endangered wildlife species such as marine turtle. Effective adaptation measures should be adopted to protect this very important coastal environment, the ecology of the wetlands and the livelihoods of the community dwellers.
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Yamanaka, Tsuyuko; Raffaelli, David; White, Piran C L
2013-01-01
Sea-level rise induced by climate change may have significant impacts on the ecosystem functions and ecosystem services provided by intertidal sediment ecosystems. Accelerated sea-level rise is expected to lead to steeper beach slopes, coarser particle sizes and increased wave exposure, with consequent impacts on intertidal ecosystems. We examined the relationships between abundance, biomass, and community metabolism of benthic fauna with beach slope, particle size and exposure, using samples across a range of conditions from three different locations in the UK, to determine the significance of sediment particle size beach slope and wave exposure in affecting benthic fauna and ecosystem function in different ecological contexts. Our results show that abundance, biomass and oxygen consumption of intertidal macrofauna and meiofauna are affected significantly by interactions among sediment particle size, beach slope and wave exposure. For macrofauna on less sloping beaches, the effect of these physical constraints is mediated by the local context, although for meiofauna and for macrofauna on intermediate and steeper beaches, the effects of physical constraints dominate. Steeper beach slopes, coarser particle sizes and increased wave exposure generally result in decreases in abundance, biomass and oxygen consumption, but these relationships are complex and non-linear. Sea-level rise is likely to lead to changes in ecosystem structure with generally negative impacts on ecosystem functions and ecosystem services. However, the impacts of sea-level rise will also be affected by local ecological context, especially for less sloping beaches.
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Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise
Shayegh, Soheil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken
2016-10-01
Adaptation is the process of adjusting to climate change in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities associated with it. Most adaptation strategies are designed to adjust to a new climate state. However, despite our best efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal investment in the face of continued sea-level rise, presenting a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among physical and economic factors governing coastal development decisions such as rate of sea-level rise, land slope, discount rate, and depreciation rate. This model shows that the determination of optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea-level rise, as well as social and political constraints. This general approach also applies to the development of improved strategies to adapt to ongoing trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Adaptation to some amount of change instead of adaptation to ongoing rates of change may produce inaccurate estimates of damages to the social systems and their ability to respond to external pressures.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paul G Harch
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A 2-year-old girl experienced cardiac arrest after cold water drowning. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI showed deep gray matter injury on day 4 and cerebral atrophy with gray and white matter loss on day 32. Patient had no speech, gait, or responsiveness to commands on day 48 at hospital discharge. She received normobaric 100% oxygen treatment (2 L/minute for 45 minutes by nasal cannula, twice/day since day 56 and then hyperbaric oxygen treatment (HBOT at 1.3 atmosphere absolute (131.7 kPa air/45 minutes, 5 days/week for 40 sessions since day 79; visually apparent and/or physical examination-documented neurological improvement occurred upon initiating each therapy. After HBOT, the patient had normal speech and cognition, assisted gait, residual fine motor and temperament deficits. MRI at 5 months after injury and 27 days after HBOT showed near-normalization of ventricles and reversal of atrophy. Subacute normobaric oxygen and HBOT were able to restore drowning-induced cortical gray matter and white matter loss, as documented by sequential MRI, and simultaneous neurological function, as documented by video and physical examinations.
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Project NOAH: Regulating modern sea-level rise. Phase II: Jerusalem Underground
Newman, Walter S.; Fairbridge, Rhodes W.
This proposal builds a high-speed inter-urban express between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, generates 1500 megawatts of hydroelectric energy, curtails littoral erosion, builds a port along the Israeli Mediterranean coast and demands peaceful cooperation on both sides of the Jordan River. Phase II represents a pilot project demonstrating the feasibility of continuing to regulate world sea-level by a new series of water regulation schemes. Phase I previously described all those projects already completed or underway which have inadvertently and/or unintentionally served the purpose of sea-level regulation. These forms of Phase I sea-level regulation include large and small reservoirs, irrigation projects, water infiltration schemes, farm ponds, and swimming and reflecting pools. All these water storage projects have already exercised a very appreciable brake on 20th century sea-level rise. Phase II outlines a high-visibility proposal which will serve to illustrate the viability of “Project NOAH”.
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Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in Egypt
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El-Raey, M.; Dewidar, K.R.; El-Hattab, M.
1999-01-01
Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details. Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of over $3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over $ 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4 Billion for 1.25 m SLR. Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most cost effective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness. 14 refs
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Effects of ocean acidification and sea-level rise on coral reefs
Yates, K.K.; Moyer, R.P.
2010-01-01
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are developing comprehensive records of historical and modern coral reef growth and calcification rates relative to changing seawater chemistry resulting from increasing atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial period to the present. These records will provide the scientific foundation for predicting future impacts of ocean acidification and sea-level rise on coral reef growth. Changes in coral growth rates in response to past changes in seawater pH are being examined by using cores from coral colonies.
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Late Post-glacial Sea Level Rise and Its Effects On Human Activity In Asia
Oppenheimer, S. J.
Three rapid post-glacial sea-level rises flooded coastlines with large continental shelves. The last of these, shortly before the interglacial optimum c.7,500BP, not only changed coastal Neolithic societies, but may also have stimulated maritime skills. Two Asian examples explore these aspects. First, during the Mid-Holocene, the Arabian Gulf transgressed as far inland as Ur probably laying down Woolley's famous Ur Flood silt layer between 7,000-5,500 BP. Stratigraphy and dating suggests the phase of rapid sea level rise immediately preceded the start of the 'Ubaid pottery period. Red-slipped Uruk pottery and copper items then appear from about 6,000BP, but above Woolley's silt layer. The Sumerian King Lists also record a major upheaval and dynastic change after 'the Flood'. Second, the final flooding of the Sunda shelf in Southeast Asia was followed by a maritime extension of human occupation from Northern Melanesia south into the Solomon Islands 6,000 years ago. Simultaneously, further west on the north coast of New Guinea, new archaeological assemblages ap- pear beneath a silt layer left by a pro-grading 6,000 year-old inland sea. The presence of arboriculture items such as betel nuts and the contemporary arrival of dogs and pigs in the same region suggests intrusion from Southeast Asia. This supports Solheim's suggestion that rapid sea-level rise on the eastern edge of the Sunda Shelf stimulated maritime skills and invention in Southeast Asia. This may have provided the initial stimulus to the first maritime expansion that was later to colonise the whole Pacific.
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Treuer, G.
2017-12-01
Sea level rise threatens coastal communities around the world, including South Florida which may be the most financially vulnerable region in the world. Proactive investments in sea level rise adaptive flood protections could reduce South Florida's financial vulnerability. However, it is unclear if local governments and homeowners will be willing to make those investments before it is too late. Our research explores this issue by reporting the results of a novel online simulation that accelerates 348 South Florida homeowners thirty-five years into the future so that they can `live' the effects of sea level rise. The results contain a mix of optimism and caution for the prospects of future adaptation. On the positive side over 75% of participants indicated a willingness to support bond issues to pay for adaptation, even as the costs of the measures and effects of sea level rise increased over the years. Likewise, we find little evidence that politically conservative residents who normally have more skeptical views about climate change would be any less inclined to support adaptation, or only look to information sources that downplay the threat. On the negative side, homeowner interest in moving out of the region increases steadily over time as the sea level rises. This is driven by an increase in worry associated with viewing more information within the simulation.
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Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region
Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert
2007-01-01
Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold
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Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation
McKee, K.L.; Cahoon, D.R.; Feller, Ilka C.
2007-01-01
Aim The long-term stability of coastal ecosystems such as mangroves and salt marshes depends upon the maintenance of soil elevations within the intertidal habitat as sea level changes. We examined the rates and processes of peat formation by mangroves of the Caribbean Region to better understand biological controls on habitat stability. Location Mangrove-dominated islands on the Caribbean coasts of Belize, Honduras and Panama were selected as study sites. Methods Biological processes controlling mangrove peat formation were manipulated (in Belize) by the addition of nutrients (nitrogen or phosphorus) to Rhizophora mangle (red mangrove), and the effects on the dynamics of soil elevation were determined over a 3-year period using rod surface elevation tables (RSET) and marker horizons. Peat composition and geological accretion rates were determined at all sites using radiocarbon-dated cores. Results The addition of nutrients to mangroves caused significant changes in rates of mangrove root accumulation, which influenced both the rate and direction of change in elevation. Areas with low root input lost elevation and those with high rates gained elevation. These findings were consistent with peat analyses at multiple Caribbean sites showing that deposits (up to 10 m in depth) were composed primarily of mangrove root matter. Comparison of radiocarbon-dated cores at the study sites with a sea-level curve for the western Atlantic indicated a tight coupling between peat building in Caribbean mangroves and sea-level rise over the Holocene. Main conclusions Mangroves common to the Caribbean region have adjusted to changing sea level mainly through subsurface accumulation of refractory mangrove roots. Without root and other organic inputs, submergence of these tidal forests is inevitable due to peat decomposition, physical compaction and eustatic sea-level rise. These findings have relevance for predicting the effects of sea-level rise and biophysical processes on tropical
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Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Pittfield, Taryn; Jeitner, Christian
2016-05-01
This study examines perceptions of climate change and sea level rise in New Jersey residents in 2012 and 2014. Different surveys have shown declines in interest and concern about climate change and sea level rise. Climate change and increasing temperatures have an anthropogenic cause, which relates to energy use, making it important to examine whether people believe that it is occurring. In late 2012 New Jersey experienced Super storm Sandy, one of the worst hurricanes in its history, followed by public discussion and media coverage of stronger more frequent storms due to climate change. Using structured interviews, we tested the null hypotheses that there were no differences in perceptions of 1260 interviewees as a function of year of the survey, age, gender, years of education, and self-evaluation of science knowledge (on a scale of 1 to 5). In 2012 460 of 639 (72%) rated "global warming occurring" as "certain" (#4) or "very certain" (#5) compared with 453 of 621 (73%) in 2014. For "due to human activities" the numbers of "certain" or "very certain" were 71% in 2012, and 67% in 2014 and for sea level rise the numbers were 64% and 70%. There were some inconsistent between-year differences with higher ratings in 2012 for 3 outcomes and higher ratings in 2014 for 5 outcomes. However, for 25 questions relative to climate change, sea level rise, and the personal and ecological effects of sea level rise, self-evaluation of science knowledge, independent of years of education, was the factor that entered 23 of the models, accounting for the most variability in ratings. People who believed they had a "high knowledge" (#4) or "very high knowledge" (#5) of science rated all issues as more important than did those people who rated their own scientific knowledge as average or below average.
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Vulnerable areas and adapation measures for sea level rise along the coast of India
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Chauhan, O.S.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Menezes, A.A.A.; Jagtap, T.G.; Suneethi, J.; Furtado, R.
India has a coastline of about 7500 km with contrasting geological setting. Based upon the available models, global sea level rise of 10-25 cm per 100 year has been predicted due to emission of green house gases. To separate out the influences due...
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Carbon burial and storage in tropical salt marshes under the influence of sea level rise.
Ruiz-Fernández, A C; Carnero-Bravo, V; Sanchez-Cabeza, J A; Pérez-Bernal, L H; Amaya-Monterrosa, O A; Bojórquez-Sánchez, S; López-Mendoza, P G; Cardoso-Mohedano, J G; Dunbar, R B; Mucciarone, D A; Marmolejo-Rodríguez, A J
2018-07-15
Coastal vegetated habitats can be important sinks of organic carbon (C org ) and mitigate global warming by sequestering significant quantities of atmospheric CO 2 and storing sedimentary C org for long periods, although their C org burial and storage capacity may be affected by on-going sea level rise and human intervention. Geochemical data from published 210 Pb-dated sediment cores, collected from low-energy microtidal coastal wetlands in El Salvador (Jiquilisco Bay) and in Mexico (Salada Lagoon; Estero de Urias Lagoon; Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve) were revisited to assess temporal changes (within the last 100years) of C org concentrations, storage and burial rates in tropical salt marshes under the influence of sea level rise and contrasting anthropization degree. Grain size distribution was used to identify hydrodynamic changes, and δ 13 C to distinguish terrigenous sediments from those accumulated under the influence of marine transgression. Although the accretion rate ranges in all sediment records were comparable, C org concentrations (0.2-30%), stocks (30-465Mgha -1 , by extrapolation to 1m depth), and burial rates (3-378gm -2 year -1 ) varied widely within and among the study areas. However, in most sites sea level rise decreased C org concentrations and stocks in sediments, but increased C org burial rates. Lower C org concentrations were attributed to the input of reworked marine particles, which contribute with a lower amount of C org than terrigenous sediments; whereas higher C org burial rates were driven by higher mass accumulation rates, influenced by increased flooding and human interventions in the surroundings. C org accumulation and long-term preservation in tropical salt marshes can be as high as in mangrove or temperate salt marsh areas and, besides the reduction of C org stocks by ongoing sea level rise, the disturbance of the long-term buried C org inventories might cause high CO 2 releases, for which they must be protected as a part of
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Combining Geography, Math, and Science to Teach Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
Oldakowski, Ray; Johnson, Ashley
2018-01-01
This study examines the effectiveness of integrating geography into existing math and science curriculum to teach climate change and sea level rise. The desired outcome is to improve student performance in all three subjects. A sample of 120 fifth graders from three schools were taught the integrated curriculum over a period of two to three weeks.…
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Can community structure track sea-level rise? Stress and competitive controls in tidal wetlands.
Schile, Lisa M; Callaway, John C; Suding, Katharine N; Kelly, N Maggi
2017-02-01
Climate change impacts, such as accelerated sea-level rise, will affect stress gradients, yet impacts on competition/stress tolerance trade-offs and shifts in distributions are unclear. Ecosystems with strong stress gradients, such as estuaries, allow for space-for-time substitutions of stress factors and can give insight into future climate-related shifts in both resource and nonresource stresses. We tested the stress gradient hypothesis and examined the effect of increased inundation stress and biotic interactions on growth and survival of two congeneric wetland sedges, Schoenoplectus acutus and Schoenoplectus americanus . We simulated sea-level rise across existing marsh elevations and those not currently found to reflect potential future sea-level rise conditions in two tidal wetlands differing in salinity. Plants were grown individually and together at five tidal elevations, the lowest simulating an 80-cm increase in sea level, and harvested to assess differences in biomass after one growing season. Inundation time, salinity, sulfides, and redox potential were measured concurrently. As predicted, increasing inundation reduced biomass of the species commonly found at higher marsh elevations, with little effect on the species found along channel margins. The presence of neighbors reduced total biomass of both species, particularly at the highest elevation; facilitation did not occur at any elevation. Contrary to predictions, we documented the competitive superiority of the stress tolerator under increased inundation, which was not predicted by the stress gradient hypothesis. Multifactor manipulation experiments addressing plant response to accelerated climate change are integral to creating a more realistic, valuable, and needed assessment of potential ecosystem response. Our results point to the important and unpredicted synergies between physical stressors, which are predicted to increase in intensity with climate change, and competitive forces on biomass as
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SEA LEVEL RISE AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON COASTAL URBAN AREA: A CASE OF ETI-OSA, NIGERIA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ayodele Michael AGBOOLA
2016-10-01
Full Text Available This study examines the spatial extent of coastal urban development and its potential sensitivity to sea-level rise. The main aim of the study is to critically examine the extent of growth in Eti-Osa over time, and the potential impacts of sea leve rise. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+ imageries of years 2000 and 2015 were used to evaluate the different land use type identified. Post-classification change detection method was used to evaluate the output of the maximum likelihood supervised classification analysis done. This was also used to estimate the changes induces through urban development on the environment which accounts for the biodiversity loss. ASTER GDEM 2 imagery of 2011 was used to generate the elevation data used for the inundation analysis. Thus, both Land use map of Eti-Osa in 2015 and the down scaled Sea-level rise scenarios (at 0.5 to 15 meters were used for the inundation mapping. Results obtained from this research affirms that indeed EtiOsa has been subjected to gross urban expansion giving room for diverse forms of environmental degradation among which are huge replacement of natural land cover with built-up, reclamation of wetlands and sand filling of water bodies. This basically illustrates growth but also the risk that accompanies the advent of excessive alteration of natural ecosystem as Sea-level rise projections imply in this research.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Megan C. Maloney
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The consequences of future sea-level rise for coastal communities are a priority concern arising from anthropogenic climate change. Here, previously published methods are scaled up in order to undertake a first pass assessment of exposure to hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. Sea-level rise scenarios ranging from +0.50 to +0.82 m by 2100 increased estimates of the area exposed to inundation by 4–13% and 7–20%, respectively, among different Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity categories. Potential applications of these hazard layers for vulnerability assessment are demonstrated with two contrasting case studies: potential exposure of current energy infrastructure in the U.S. Southeast and exposure of current and future housing along both the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Estimates of the number of Southeast electricity generation facilities potentially exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 69 to 291 for category 1 and category 5 storms, respectively. Sea-level rise increased the number of exposed facilities by 6–60%, depending on the sea-level rise scenario and the intensity of the hurricane under consideration. Meanwhile, estimates of the number of housing units currently exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 4.1 to 9.4 million for category 1 and category 4 storms, respectively, while exposure for category 5 storms was estimated at 7.1 million due to the absence of landfalling category 5 hurricanes in the New England region. Housing exposure was projected to increase 83–230% by 2100 among different sea-level rise and housing scenarios, with the majority of this increase attributed to future housing development. These case studies highlight the utility of geospatial hazard information for national-scale coastal exposure or vulnerability assessment as well as the importance of future socioeconomic development in the assessment of coastal vulnerability.
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Mani Murali, R; Dinesh Kumar, P K
2015-01-15
Physical responses of the coastal zones in the vicinity of Cochin, India due to sea level rise are investigated based on analysis of inundation scenarios. Quantification of potential habitat loss was made by merging the Land use/Land cover (LU/LC) prepared from the satellite imagery with the digital elevation model. Scenarios were generated for two different rates of sea level rise and responses of changes occurred were made to ascertain the vulnerability and loss in extent. LU/LC classes overlaid on 1 m and 2 m elevation showed that it was mostly covered by vegetation areas followed by water and urban zones. For the sea level rise scenarios of 1 m and 2 m, the total inundation zones were estimated to be 169.11 km(2) and 598.83 km(2) respectively using Geographic Information System (GIS). The losses of urban areas were estimated at 43 km(2) and 187 km(2) for the 1 m and 2 m sea level rise respectively which is alarming information for the most densely populated state of India. Quantitative comparison of other LU/LC classes showed significant changes under each of the inundation scenarios. The results obtained conclusively point that sea level rise scenarios will bring profound effects on the land use and land cover classes as well as on coastal landforms in the study region. Coastal inundation would leave ocean front and inland properties vulnerable. Increase in these water levels would alter the coastal drainage gradients. Reduction in these gradients would increase flooding attributable to rainstorms which could promote salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers and force water tables to rise. Changes in the coastal landforms associated with inundation generate concern in the background that the coastal region may continue to remain vulnerable in the coming decades due to population growth and development pressures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shimooka, Hiroshi
1982-01-01
The disposal of high-level radioactive waste should result in temperature rises and thermal stresses which change the hydraulic conductivity of the rock around the repository. For safety analysis on disposal of high-level radioactive waste into hard rock, it is necessary to find the temperature rises and thermal stresses distributions around the repository. In this paper, these distribution changes are analyzed by the use of the finite difference method. In advance of numerical analysis, it is required to simplify the shapes and properties of the repository and the rock. Several kinds of numerical models are prepared, and the results of this analysis are examined. And, the waste disposal methods are discussed from the stand-points of the temperature rise and thermal stress analysis. (author)
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A new method to estimate global mass transport and its implication for sea level rise
Yi, S.; Heki, K.
2017-12-01
Estimates of changes in global land mass by using GRACE observations can be achieved by two methods, a mascon method and a forward modeling method. However, results from these two methods show inconsistent secular trend. Sea level budget can be adopted to validate the consistency among observations of sea level rise by altimetry, steric change by the Argo project, and mass change by GRACE. Mascon products from JPL, GSFC and CSR are compared here, we find that all these three products cannot achieve a reconciled sea level budget, while this problem can be solved by a new forward modeling method. We further investigate the origin of this difference, and speculate that it is caused by the signal leakage from the ocean mass. Generally, it is well recognized that land signals leak into oceans, but it also happens the other way around. We stress the importance of correction of leakage from the ocean in the estimation of global land masses. Based on a reconciled sea level budget, we confirmed that global sea level rise has been accelerating significantly over 2005-2015, as a result of the ongoing global temperature increase.
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Gesch, Dean B.
2009-01-01
The importance of sea-level rise in shaping coastal landscapes is well recognized within the earth science community, but as with many natural hazards, communicating the risks associated with sea-level rise remains a challenge. Topography is a key parameter that influences many of the processes involved in coastal change, and thus, up-to-date, high-resolution, high-accuracy elevation data are required to model the coastal environment. Maps of areas subject to potential inundation have great utility to planners and managers concerned with the effects of sea-level rise. However, most of the maps produced to date are simplistic representations derived from older, coarse elevation data. In the last several years, vast amounts of high quality elevation data derived from lidar have become available. Because of their high vertical accuracy and spatial resolution, these lidar data are an excellent source of up-to-date information from which to improve identification and delineation of vulnerable lands. Four elevation datasets of varying resolution and accuracy were processed to demonstrate that the improved quality of lidar data leads to more precise delineation of coastal lands vulnerable to inundation. A key component of the comparison was to calculate and account for the vertical uncertainty of the elevation datasets. This comparison shows that lidar allows for a much more detailed delineation of the potential inundation zone when compared to other types of elevation models. It also shows how the certainty of the delineation of lands vulnerable to a given sea-level rise scenario is much improved when derived from higher resolution lidar data.
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Central nervous system anoxic-ischemic insult in children due to near-drowning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, S.B.; Quencer, R.M.; Holzman, B.H.; Naidich, T.P.
1985-01-01
An analysis of admission and follow-up CT examinations of the brains of 17 children who had nearly drowned (15 of whom were comatose and two of whom were conscious on admission) indicated that a normal initial CT scan is common in the majority of comatose patients, a severe neurologic outcome may develop in spite of a normal initial CT examination, and abnormal initial or follow-up CT findings indicate the strong but not inevitable probability of a severe neurologic outcome. The authors conclude that when there is no head trauma, an initial CT examination is not necessary. Prediction of the clinical outcome cannot be made on the basis of the initial CT findings
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The impact of selected sea level rise scenarios in the vicinity of Cochin harbour, India
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
DineshKumar, P.K.
reconfiguration in response to different sea level rise scenarios, the method of empirical distribution of new shorelines using trend lines which accounts for the inherent variability in shoreline response based on differing coastal processes is employed...
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XXI century projections of wind-wave conditions and sea-level rise in the Black sea
Polonsky, A.; Garmashov, A.; Fomin, V.; Valchev, N.; Trifonova, E.
2012-04-01
Projection of regional climate changes for XXI century is one of the priorities of EC environmental programme. Potential worsening of the waves' statistics, sea level rise and extreme surges are the principal negative consequences of the climate change for marine environment. That is why the main purpose of this presentation is to discuss the above issue for the Black sea region (with a strong focus to the south-west subregion because the maximum heights of waves exceeding 10 m occur just here) using output of several global coupled models (GCM) for XXI century, wave simulation, long-term observations of sea level and statistical techniques. First of all we tried to choose the best coupled model (s) simulated the Black sea climate change and variability using the control experiments for 20 century (203). The principal result is as follows. There is not one model which is simulating adequately even one atmospheric parameter for all seasons. Therefore we considered (for the climate projection) different outputs form various models. When it was possible we calculated also the ensemble mean projection for the selected model (s) and emission scenarios. To calculate the wave projection we used the output of SWAN model forced by the GCM wind projection for 2010 to 2100. To estimate the sea level rise in XXI century and future surges statistics we extrapolate the observed sea level rise tendencies, statistical relation between wave heights and sea level and wave scenarios. Results show that in general, the climate change in XXI century doesn't lead to the catastrophic change of the Black sea wind-wave statistics including the extreme waves in the S-W Black sea. The typical atmospheric pattern leading to the intense storm in the S-W Black sea is characterized by the persistent anticyclonic area to the North of the Black sea and cyclonic conditions in the Southern Black sea region. Such pressure pattern causes persistent and strong eastern or north-eastern wind which
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Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise: the role of complex colored noise
Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Müller, Alfred; Zorita, Eduardo; Jensen, Jürgen
2015-04-01
While there is scientific consensus that global mean sea level (MSL) is rising since the late 19th century, it remains unclear how much of this rise is due to natural variability or anthropogenic forcing. Uncovering the anthropogenic contribution requires profound knowledge about the persistence of natural MSL variations. This is challenging, since observational time series represent the superposition of various processes with different spectral properties. Here we statistically estimate the upper bounds of naturally forced centennial MSL trends on the basis of two separate components: a slowly varying volumetric (mass and density changes) and a more rapidly changing atmospheric component. Resting on a combination of spectral analyses of tide gauge records, ocean reanalysis data and numerical Monte-Carlo experiments, we find that in records where transient atmospheric processes dominate, the persistence of natural volumetric changes is underestimated. If each component is assessed separately, natural centennial trends are locally up to ~0.5 mm/yr larger than in case of an integrated assessment. This implies that external trends in MSL rise related to anthropogenic forcing might be generally overestimated. By applying our approach to the outputs of a centennial ocean reanalysis (SODA), we estimate maximum natural trends in the order of 1 mm/yr for the global average. This value is larger than previous estimates, but consistent with recent paleo evidence from periods in which the anthropogenic contribution was absent. Comparing our estimate to the observed 20th century MSL rise of 1.7 mm/yr suggests a minimum external contribution of at least 0.7 mm/yr. We conclude that an accurate detection of anthropogenic footprints in MSL rise requires a more careful assessment of the persistence of intrinsic natural variability.
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Comment on 'The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment'
Tol, R.S.J.; Nicholls, R.J.; Brown, S.; Hinkel, J.; Vafeidis, A.T.; Spencer, T.
2016-01-01
Pycroft et al. (Environ Resour Econ 1–29, 2015) used incorrect and outdated data to study the economic impact of sea level rise. They misinterpret some of their input data, and fail to exploit the strengths of their computable general equilibrium model and previously developed methods to study
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Sensitivity of Estuaries to Coastal Morphological Change Induced by Sea Level Rise
Alizad, K.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Mariotti, G.
2017-12-01
Coastal wetlands play a critical role by providing food and habitat for a variety of species and by dissipating wave and storm surge. These regions are also vulnerable to climate change and specifically rising sea levels. Projections show that coastal marshes across the Northern Gulf of Mexico are threatened by a higher risk of losing their productivity through increased inundation depth and time [Alizad et al., 2016a]. Individual estuaries will respond differently to stressors based on local conditions such as tidal range, creek geometry, and sediment sources, among others. In addition, morphological changes in estuaries are functions of both physical processes such as hydrodynamics and wind waves as well as biological mechanisms. To investigate the sensitivity of storm surge to bio-geomorphological changes associated with climate change within an estuary, the Hydro-MEM model [Alizad et al., 2016b] and first-order bathymetric changes were applied for a set of sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Morphologic change in the form of marsh platform accretion and enhanced bay bathymetry through time was employed in an ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) shallow-water equation model. The model was used to run synthetic storm simulations for an intermediate-low (0.5 m), intermediate-high (1.2 m), and high (2.0 m) SLR scenarios in Grand Bay, MS (marine dominated) and Weeks Bay, AL (mixed) estuaries. Results including with and without morphologic changes applied will be discussed. Future steps for incorporating morphological effects including channel widening and wave erosion processes into the Hydro-MEM model is to couple morphologic and hydrodynamic models [Mariotti and Canestrelli, 2017] in the Hydro-MEM time step framework. ReferencesAlizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, and J. F. Weishampel (2016a), Coastal wetland response to sea-level rise in a fluvial estuarine system, Earth's Future, 4(11), 483-497. Alizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, P
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Doyle, T.W.; Krauss, K.W.; Conner, W.H.; From, A.S.
2010-01-01
Tidal freshwater forests in coastal regions of the southeastern United States are undergoing dieback and retreat from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. In many areas, tidal saltwater forests (mangroves) contrastingly are expanding landward in subtropical coastal reaches succeeding freshwater marsh and forest zones. Hydrological characteristics of these low-relief coastal forests in intertidal settings are dictated by the influence of tidal and freshwater forcing. In this paper, we describe the application of the Sea Level Over Proportional Elevation (SLOPE) model to predict coastal forest retreat and migration from projected sea-level rise based on a proxy relationship of saltmarsh/mangrove area and tidal range. The SLOPE model assumes that the sum area of saltmarsh/mangrove habitat along any given coastal reach is determined by the slope of the landform and vertical tide forcing. Model results indicated that saltmarsh and mangrove migration from sea-level rise will vary by county and watershed but greater in western Gulf States than in the eastern Gulf States where millions of hectares of coastal forest will be displaced over the next century with a near meter rise in relative sea level alone. Substantial losses of coastal forests will also occur in the eastern Gulf but mangrove forests in subtropical zones of Florida are expected to replace retreating freshwater forest and affect regional biodiversity. Accelerated global eustacy from climate change will compound the degree of predicted retreat and migration of coastal forests with expected implications for ecosystem management of State and Federal lands in the absence of adaptive coastal management.
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Mitrovica, Jerry X; Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Dumberry, Mathieu; Stanley, Sabine
2015-12-01
In 2002, Munk defined an important enigma of 20th century global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise that has yet to be resolved. First, he listed three canonical observations related to Earth's rotation [(i) the slowing of Earth's rotation rate over the last three millennia inferred from ancient eclipse observations, and changes in the (ii) amplitude and (iii) orientation of Earth's rotation vector over the last century estimated from geodetic and astronomic measurements] and argued that they could all be fit by a model of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) associated with the last ice age. Second, he demonstrated that prevailing estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (~1.5 to 2.0 mm/year), after correction for the maximum signal from ocean thermal expansion, implied mass flux from ice sheets and glaciers at a level that would grossly misfit the residual GIA-corrected observations of Earth's rotation. We demonstrate that the combination of lower estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (up to 1990) improved modeling of the GIA process and that the correction of the eclipse record for a signal due to angular momentum exchange between the fluid outer core and the mantle reconciles all three Earth rotation observations. This resolution adds confidence to recent estimates of individual contributions to 20th century sea-level change and to projections of GMSL rise to the end of the 21st century based on them.
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An automatic window opening system to prevent drowning in vehicles sinking in water
Giesbrecht, Gordon G.; Percher, Michael; Brunet, Pierre; Richard, Yanik; Alexander, Marion; Bellemare, Alixandra; Rawal, Yash; Amassian, Aram; Mcdonald, Gerren
2017-01-01
Objective: Every year about 400 people die in submersed vehicles in North America and this number increases to 2,000–5,000 in all industrialized nations. The best way to survive is to quickly exit through the windows. An Automatic Window Opening System (AWOS; patent protected) was designed to sense when a vehicle is in water and to open the electric windows, but only when the vehicle is upright. Methods: The AWOS consists of a Detection Module (DM), in the engine compartment, and a Power Window Control Module (PWCM) inside the driver’s door. The DM contains a Water Sensor, a Level Sensor and a Microcontroller Unit (MCU). The Level Sensor provides the angular orientation of the car using a 3-axis acceleration sensor and prevents automatic window opening if the car is outside the orientation range (±20° in the roll axis, ±30° in the pitch axis, with a 2 s delay). Systems were installed on two cars and one SUV. A crane lowered vehicles in water either straight down (static tests) or by swinging the vehicles to produce forward movement (dynamic tests). Results: In all tests, when the vehicles landed upright, windows opened immediately and effectively. When vehicles landed inverted, or at a very steep angle, the system did not engage until an upright and level position was attained. Conclusions: This system may help decrease drowning deaths in sinking vehicles. If occupants do not know, or forget, what to do, the open window could hopefully prompt them to exit safely through that window.
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An automatic window opening system to prevent drowning in vehicles sinking in water
Giesbrecht, Gordon G.
2017-07-12
Objective: Every year about 400 people die in submersed vehicles in North America and this number increases to 2,000–5,000 in all industrialized nations. The best way to survive is to quickly exit through the windows. An Automatic Window Opening System (AWOS; patent protected) was designed to sense when a vehicle is in water and to open the electric windows, but only when the vehicle is upright. Methods: The AWOS consists of a Detection Module (DM), in the engine compartment, and a Power Window Control Module (PWCM) inside the driver’s door. The DM contains a Water Sensor, a Level Sensor and a Microcontroller Unit (MCU). The Level Sensor provides the angular orientation of the car using a 3-axis acceleration sensor and prevents automatic window opening if the car is outside the orientation range (±20° in the roll axis, ±30° in the pitch axis, with a 2 s delay). Systems were installed on two cars and one SUV. A crane lowered vehicles in water either straight down (static tests) or by swinging the vehicles to produce forward movement (dynamic tests). Results: In all tests, when the vehicles landed upright, windows opened immediately and effectively. When vehicles landed inverted, or at a very steep angle, the system did not engage until an upright and level position was attained. Conclusions: This system may help decrease drowning deaths in sinking vehicles. If occupants do not know, or forget, what to do, the open window could hopefully prompt them to exit safely through that window.
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Living with sea-level rise and climate change: a case study of the Netherlands
van Koningsveld, M.; Mulder, J.P.M. P.M.; Stive, M.J.F.; van der Valk, L.; van der Weck, A.W.
2008-01-01
Based on historical hindsight, this paper shows that sea-level rise has played a fundamental role in the development of the low-lying environment of the Netherlands. It was beneficial in morphological terms during the mid-Holocene, but from Roman times, it has been a threat to the coastal zone
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tammy E Foster
Full Text Available Society needs information about how vegetation communities in coastal regions will be impacted by hydrologic changes associated with climate change, particularly sea level rise. Due to anthropogenic influences which have significantly decreased natural coastal vegetation communities, it is important for us to understand how remaining natural communities will respond to sea level rise. The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex (CCBIC on the east central coast of Florida is within one of the most biologically diverse estuarine systems in North America and has the largest number of threatened and endangered species on federal property in the contiguous United States. The high level of biodiversity is susceptible to sea level rise. Our objective was to model how vegetation communities along a gradient ranging from hydric to upland xeric on CCBIC will respond to three sea level rise scenarios (0.2 m, 0.4 m, and 1.2 m. We used a probabilistic model of the current relationship between elevation and vegetation community to determine the impact sea level rise would have on these communities. Our model correctly predicted the current proportions of vegetation communities on CCBIC based on elevation. Under all sea level rise scenarios the model predicted decreases in mesic and xeric communities, with the greatest losses occurring in the most xeric communities. Increases in total area of salt marsh were predicted with a 0.2 and 0.4 m rise in sea level. With a 1.2 m rise in sea level approximately half of CCBIC's land area was predicted to transition to open water. On the remaining land, the proportions of most of the vegetation communities were predicted to remain similar to that of current proportions, but there was a decrease in proportion of the most xeric community (oak scrub and an increase in the most hydric community (salt marsh. Our approach provides a first approximation of the impacts of sea level rise on terrestrial vegetation communities
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Foster, Tammy E; Stolen, Eric D; Hall, Carlton R; Schaub, Ronald; Duncan, Brean W; Hunt, Danny K; Drese, John H
2017-01-01
Society needs information about how vegetation communities in coastal regions will be impacted by hydrologic changes associated with climate change, particularly sea level rise. Due to anthropogenic influences which have significantly decreased natural coastal vegetation communities, it is important for us to understand how remaining natural communities will respond to sea level rise. The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex (CCBIC) on the east central coast of Florida is within one of the most biologically diverse estuarine systems in North America and has the largest number of threatened and endangered species on federal property in the contiguous United States. The high level of biodiversity is susceptible to sea level rise. Our objective was to model how vegetation communities along a gradient ranging from hydric to upland xeric on CCBIC will respond to three sea level rise scenarios (0.2 m, 0.4 m, and 1.2 m). We used a probabilistic model of the current relationship between elevation and vegetation community to determine the impact sea level rise would have on these communities. Our model correctly predicted the current proportions of vegetation communities on CCBIC based on elevation. Under all sea level rise scenarios the model predicted decreases in mesic and xeric communities, with the greatest losses occurring in the most xeric communities. Increases in total area of salt marsh were predicted with a 0.2 and 0.4 m rise in sea level. With a 1.2 m rise in sea level approximately half of CCBIC's land area was predicted to transition to open water. On the remaining land, the proportions of most of the vegetation communities were predicted to remain similar to that of current proportions, but there was a decrease in proportion of the most xeric community (oak scrub) and an increase in the most hydric community (salt marsh). Our approach provides a first approximation of the impacts of sea level rise on terrestrial vegetation communities, including important
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Chesnaux, R.
2016-04-01
Closed-form analytical solutions for assessing the consequences of sea-level rise on fresh groundwater oceanic island lenses are provided for the cases of both strip and circular islands. Solutions are proposed for directly calculating the change in the thickness of the lens, the changes in volume and the changes in travel time of fresh groundwater within island aquifers. The solutions apply for homogenous aquifers recharged by surface infiltration and discharged by a down-gradient, fixed-head boundary. They also take into account the inland shift of the ocean due to land surface inundation, this shift being determined by the coastal slope of inland aquifers. The solutions are given for two simple island geometries: circular islands and strip islands. Base case examples are presented to illustrate, on one hand, the amplitude of the change of the fresh groundwater lens thickness and the volume depletion of the lens in oceanic island with sea-level rise, and on the other hand, the shortening of time required for groundwater to discharge into the ocean. These consequences can now be quantified and may help decision-makers to anticipate the effects of sea-level rise on fresh groundwater availability in oceanic island aquifers.
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Rice, Karen C; Hong, Bo; Shen, Jian
2012-11-30
Global sea level is rising, and the relative rate in the Chesapeake Bay region of the East Coast of the United States is greater than the worldwide rate. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. The effects of future sea-level rise on two tributaries of Chesapeake Bay, the James and Chickahominy (CHK) Rivers, were evaluated in order to quantify the salinity change with respect to the magnitude of sea-level rise. Such changes are critical to: 1) local floral and faunal habitats that have limited tolerance ranges to salinity; and 2) a drinking-water supply for the City of Newport News, Virginia. By using the three-dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), sea-level rise scenarios of 30, 50, and 100 cm, based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for the mid-Atlantic region for the 21st century, were evaluated. The model results indicate that salinity increases in the entire river as sea level rises and that the salinity increase in a dry year is greater than that in a typical year. In the James River, the salinity increase in the middle-to-upper river (from 25 to 50 km upstream of the mouth) is larger than that in the lower and upper parts of the river. The maximum mean salinity increase would be 2 and 4 ppt for a sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm, respectively. The upstream movement of the 10 ppt isohaline is much larger than the 5 and 20 ppt isohalines. The volume of water with salinity between 10 and 20 ppt would increase greatly if sea level rises 100 cm. In the CHK River, with a sea-level rise of 100 cm, the mean salinity at the drinking-water intake 34 km upstream of the mouth would be about 3 ppt in a typical year and greater than 5 ppt in a dry year, both far in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's secondary standard for total dissolved solids for drinking water. At the drinking-water intake, the number of days of salinity
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Kassakian, Jennifer; Jones, Ann; Martinich, Jeremy; Hudgens, Daniel
2017-05-01
Sea level rise has the potential to substantially alter the extent and nature of coastal wetlands and the critical ecological services they provide. In making choices about how to respond to rising sea level, planners are challenged with weighing easily quantified risks (e.g., loss of property value due to inundation) against those that are more difficult to quantify (e.g., loss of primary production or carbon sequestration services provided by wetlands due to inundation). Our goal was to develop a cost-effective, appropriately-scaled, model-based approach that allows planners to predict, under various sea level rise and response scenarios, the economic cost of wetland loss-with the estimates proxied by the costs of future restoration required to maintain the existing level of wetland habitat services. Our approach applies the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model to predict changes in wetland habitats over the next century, and then applies Habitat Equivalency Analysis to predict the cost of restoration projects required to maintain ecological services at their present, pre-sea level rise level. We demonstrate the application of this approach in the Delaware Bay estuary and in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida), and discuss how this approach can support future coastal decision-making.
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An Update of Sea Level Rise in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf
Alothman, Abdulaziz; Bos, Machiel; Fernandes, Rui
2017-04-01
Relative sea level variations in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf have been estimated in the past using no more than 10 to 15 years of observations. In Alothman et al. (2014), we have almost doubled the period to 28.7 years by examining all available tide gauge data in the area and constructing a mean gauge time-series from seven coastal tide gauges. We found for the period 1979-2007 a relative sea level rise of about 2mm/yr, which correspond to an absolute sea level rise of about 1.5mm/yr based on the vertical displacement of GNSS stations in the region. By taking into account the temporal correlations we concluded that previous published results underestimate the true sea level rate error in this area by a factor of 5-10. In this work, we discuss and update the methodology and results from Alothman et al. (2014), particularly by checking and extending the GNSS solutions. Since 3 of the 6 GPS stations used only started observing in the end of 2011, the longer time series have now significantly lower uncertainties in the estimated vertical rate. In addition, we compare our results with GRACE derived ocean bottom pressure time series which are a good proxy of the changes in water mass in this area over time.
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The Orinoco megadelta as a conservation target in the face of the ongoing and future sea level rise.
Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T; Hernández, E; Rull, Valentí; Rull Vegas, Elisa
2015-05-15
Currently, risk assessments related to rising sea levels and the adoption of defensive or adaptive measures to counter these sea level increases are underway for densely populated deltas where economic losses might be important, especially in the developed world. However, many underpopulated deltas harbouring high biological and cultural diversity are also at risk but will most likely continue to be ignored as conservation targets. In this study, we explore the potential effects of erosion, inundation and salinisation on one of the world's comparatively underpopulated megadeltas, the Orinoco Delta. With a 1 m sea level rise expected to occur by 2100, several models predict a moderate erosion of the delta's shorelines, migration or loss of mangroves, general inundation of the delta with an accompanying submersion of wetlands, and an increase in the distance to which sea water intrudes into streams, resulting in harm to the freshwater biota and resources. The Warao people are the indigenous inhabitants of the Orinoco Delta and currently are subject to various socioeconomic stressors. Changes due to sea level rise will occur extremely rapidly and cause abrupt shifts in the Warao's traditional environments and resources, resulting in migrations and abandonment of their ancestral territories. However, evidence indicates that deltaic aggradation/accretion processes at the Orinoco delta due to allochthonous sediment input and vegetation growth could be elevating the surface of the land, keeping pace with the local sea level rise. Other underpopulated and large deltas of the world also may risk immeasurable biodiversity and cultural losses and should not be forgotten as important conservation targets. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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List, J.H.; Sallenger, A.H.; Hansen, M.E.; Jaffe, B.E.
1997-01-01
The role of relative sea-level rise as a cause for the rapid erosion of Louisiana's barrier island coast is investigated through a numerical implementation of a modified Bruun rule that accounts for the low percentage of sand-sized sediment in the eroding Louisiana shoreface. Shore-normal profiles from 150 km of coastline west of the Mississippi delta are derived from bathymetric surveys conducted during the 1880s. 1930s and 1980s. An RMS difference criterion is employed to test whether an equilibrium profile form is maintained between survey years. Only about half the studied profiles meet the equilibrium Criterion this represents a significant limitation on the potential applicability of the Bruun rule. The profiles meeting the equilibrium criterion, along with measured rates of relative sea-level rise, are used to hindcast shoreline retreat rates at 37 locations within the study area. Modeled and observed shoreline retreat rates show no significant correlation. Thus in terms of the Bruun approach relative sea-level rise has no power for hindcasting (and presumably forecasting) rates of coastal erosion for the Louisiana barrier islands.
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Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases.
Zickfeld, Kirsten; Solomon, Susan; Gilford, Daniel M
2017-01-24
Mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases with short lifetimes (order of a year to decades) can contribute to limiting warming, but less attention has been paid to their impacts on longer-term sea-level rise. We show that short-lived greenhouse gases contribute to sea-level rise through thermal expansion (TSLR) over much longer time scales than their atmospheric lifetimes. For example, at least half of the TSLR due to increases in methane is expected to remain present for more than 200 y, even if anthropogenic emissions cease altogether, despite the 10-y atmospheric lifetime of this gas. Chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons have already been phased out under the Montreal Protocol due to concerns about ozone depletion and provide an illustration of how emission reductions avoid multiple centuries of future TSLR. We examine the "world avoided" by the Montreal Protocol by showing that if these gases had instead been eliminated in 2050, additional TSLR of up to about 14 cm would be expected in the 21st century, with continuing contributions lasting more than 500 y. Emissions of the hydrofluorocarbon substitutes in the next half-century would also contribute to centuries of future TSLR. Consideration of the time scales of reversibility of TSLR due to short-lived substances provides insights into physical processes: sea-level rise is often assumed to follow air temperature, but this assumption holds only for TSLR when temperatures are increasing. We present a more complete formulation that is accurate even when atmospheric temperatures are stable or decreasing due to reductions in short-lived gases or net radiative forcing.
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Shu-Huei, Jhang; Chih-Chung, Wen; Dong-Jiing, Doong; Cheng-Han, Tsai
2017-04-01
Taiwan is an Island in the western Pacific Ocean and experienced more than 3 typhoons in a year. Typhoons bring intense rainfall, high waves, and storm surges, which often resulted in coastal flooding. The flooding can be aggravated by the sea level rise due to the global warming, which may subject Taiwan's coastal areas to more serious damage in the future than present. The objectives of this study are to investigate the flooding caused by typhoons in the Annan District, Tainan, a city on the southwest coast of Taiwan by numerical simulations, considering the effects of sea-level rises according to the level suggested by the 5th Assessment Report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The simulations were carried out by using MIKE21 HD (a hydrodynamic model) and MIKE21 SW (a spectral wave model). In our simulation, we used an intense typhoon, named Soudelor, as our base typhoon, which made its landfall on the east coast of Taiwan in the summer of 2015, traveled through the width of the island, and exited the island to the north of Tainan. The reasons we pick this typhoon are that it passed near our objective area, wind field data for this typhoon are available, and we have well documented coastal wave and water level measurements during the passage of Typhoon Soudelor. We firstly used ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) wind field data to reconstruct typhoon waves and storm surges for this typhoon by using coupled MIKE21 SW and MIKE21 HD in a regional model. The resultant simulated wave height and sea-level height matched satisfactorily with the measured data. The wave height and storm surge calculated by the regional model provided the boundary conditions for our fine-grid domain. Then different sea-level rises suggested by the IPCC were incorporated into the fine-grid model. Since river discharge due to intense rainfall has also to be considered for coastal flooding, our fine-grid models
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Assessment of the impact of sea-level rise due to climate change on coastal groundwater discharge.
Masciopinto, Costantino; Liso, Isabella Serena
2016-11-01
An assessment of sea intrusion into coastal aquifers as a consequence of local sea-level rise (LSLR) due to climate change was carried out at Murgia and Salento in southern Italy. The interpolation of sea-level measurements at three tide-gauge stations was performed during the period of 2000 to 2014. The best fit of measurements shows an increasing rate of LSLR ranging from 4.4mm/y to 8.8mm/y, which will result in a maximum LSLR of approximately 2m during the 22nd century. The local rate of sea-level rise matches recent 21st and 22nd century projections of mean global sea-level rise determined by other researchers, which include increased melting rates of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the effect of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and changes in the quantity of stored land water. Subsequently, Ghyben-Herzberg's equation for the freshwater/saltwater interface was rewritten in order to determine the decrease in groundwater discharge due to the maximum LSLR. Groundwater flow simulations and ArcGIS elaborations of digital elevation models of the coast provided input data for the Ghyben-Herzberg calculation under the assumption of head-controlled systems. The progression of seawater intrusion due to LSLR suggests an impressive depletion of available groundwater discharge during the 22nd century, perhaps as much as 16.1% of current groundwater pumping for potable water in Salento. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Strauss, Benjamin H; Ziemlinski, Remik; Weiss, Jeremy L; Overpeck, Jonathan T
2012-01-01
Because sea level could rise 1 m or more during the next century, it is important to understand what land, communities and assets may be most at risk from increased flooding and eventual submersion. Employing a recent high-resolution edition of the National Elevation Dataset and using VDatum, a newly available tidal model covering the contiguous US, together with data from the 2010 Census, we quantify low-lying coastal land, housing and population relative to local mean high tide levels, which range from ∼0 to 3 m in elevation (North American Vertical Datum of 1988). Previous work at regional to national scales has sometimes equated elevation with the amount of sea level rise, leading to underestimated risk anywhere where the mean high tide elevation exceeds 0 m, and compromising comparisons across regions with different tidal levels. Using our tidally adjusted approach, we estimate the contiguous US population living on land within 1 m of high tide to be 3.7 million. In 544 municipalities and 38 counties, we find that over 10% of the population lives below this line; all told, some 2150 towns and cities have some degree of exposure. At the state level, Florida, Louisiana, California, New York and New Jersey have the largest sub-meter populations. We assess topographic susceptibility of land, housing and population to sea level rise for all coastal states, counties and municipalities, from 0 to 6 m above mean high tide, and find important threat levels for widely distributed communities of every size. We estimate that over 22.9 million Americans live on land within 6 m of local mean high tide. (letter)
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Storlazzi, Curt; Gingerich, Stephen B.; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Quataert, Ellen; Voss, Clifford I.; Field, Donald W.; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian; Piniak, Greg A.; McCall, Robert T.
2018-01-01
Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.
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Lovelock, Catherine E.; Bennion, Vicki; Grinham, Alistair; Cahoon, Donald R.
2011-01-01
Increases in the elevation of the soil surfaces of mangroves and salt marshes are key to the maintenance of these habitats with accelerating sea level rise. Understanding the processes that give rise to increases in soil surface elevation provides science for management of landscapes for sustainable coastal wetlands. Here, we tested whether the soil surface elevation of mangroves and salt marshes in Moreton Bay is keeping up with local rates of sea level rise (2.358 mm y-1) and whether accretion on the soil surface was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise. We found variability in surface elevation gains, with sandy areas in the eastern bay having the highest surface elevation gains in both mangrove and salt marsh (5.9 and 1.9 mm y-1) whereas in the muddier western bay rates of surface elevation gain were lower (1.4 and -0.3 mm y-1 in mangrove and salt marsh, respectively). Both sides of the bay had similar rates of surface accretion (~7–9 mm y-1 in the mangrove and 1–3 mm y-1 in the salt marsh), but mangrove soils in the western bay were subsiding at a rate of approximately 8 mm y-1, possibly due to compaction of organic sediments. Over the study surface elevation increments were sensitive to position in the intertidal zone (higher when lower in the intertidal) and also to variation in mean sea level (higher at high sea level). Although surface accretion was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise in the eastern bay, subsidence largely negated gains made through surface accretion in the western bay indicating a high vulnerability to sea level rise in these forests.
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Global change and relative sea level rise at Venice: what impact in term of flooding
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Carbognin, Laura; Tosi, Luigi [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); Teatini, Pietro [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University of Padova, Department of Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific Applications, Padua (Italy); Tomasin, Alberto [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University Ca' Foscari in Venice, Venice (Italy)
2010-11-15
Relative sea level rise (RSLR) due to climate change and geodynamics represents the main threat for the survival of Venice, emerging today only 90 cm above the Northern Adriatic mean sea level (msl). The 25 cm RSLR occurred over the 20th century, consisting of about 12 cm of land subsidence and 13 cm of sea level rise, has increased the flood frequency by more than seven times with severe damages to the urban heritage. Reasonable forecasts of the RSLR expected to the century end must be investigated to assess the suitability of the Mo.S.E. project planned for the city safeguarding, i.e., the closure of the lagoon inlets by mobile barriers. Here we consider three RSLR scenarios as resulting from the past sea level rise recorded in the Northern Adriatic Sea, the IPCC mid-range A1B scenario, and the expected land subsidence. Available sea level measurements show that more than 5 decades are required to compute a meaningful eustatic trend, due to pseudo-cyclic 7-8 year long fluctuations. The period from 1890 to 2007 is characterized by an average rate of 0.12 {+-} 0.01 cm/year. We demonstrate that linear regression is the most suitable model to represent the eustatic process over these 117 year. Concerning subsidence, at present Venice is sinking due to natural causes at 0.05 cm/year. The RSLR is expected to range between 17 and 53 cm by 2100, and its repercussions in terms of flooding frequency are associated here to each scenario. In particular, the frequency of tides higher than 110 cm, i.e., the value above which the gates would close the lagoon to the sea, will increase from the nowadays 4 times per year to a range between 20 and 250. These projections provide a large spread of possible conditions concerning the survival of Venice, from a moderate nuisance to an intolerable aggression. Hence, complementary solutions to Mo.S.E. may well be investigated. (orig.)
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A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards
Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen
2018-01-01
We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial
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The climatic change and the coastal areas. The sea level rise: risks and answers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paskoff, R.
2000-01-01
This colloquium aimed to analyze the ecological, economic and human effects of the earth warming on coastal regions and more particularly the deltas. It also aimed aware the experts, the socio-economic and political actors of these regions on the consequences of the unavoidable sea level rise and on the measures that people can implemented to limit its effects. (A.L.B.)
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Ecklund, Margaret M; Wahl, Gary; Yamshchikov, Alexandra V; Smith, Michael S
2012-12-01
This article discusses a woman who collapsed and landed in a puddle of water in a park near a horse trail. Her rescue and resuscitation started an extraordinary effort by her body to heal from multiple insults. This case study highlights the diagnosis and support of polymicrobial pneumonia secondary to near drowning and the multisystem complications throughout the 3-month hospitalization. It highlights the evidence for treatment of the polymicrobial nature of submersion injury, acute lung injury, and benefits of progressive mobility. Social media as a tool for the family's communication and coping are also discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Statistical analysis of the acceleration of Baltic mean sea-level rise, 1900-2012
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Birgit Hünicke
2016-07-01
Full Text Available We analyse annual mean sea-level records from tide-gauges located in the Baltic and parts of the North Sea with the aim of detecting an acceleration of sea-level rise over the 20textsuperscript{th} and 21textsuperscript{st} centuries. The acceleration is estimated as a (1 fit to a polynomial of order two in time, (2 a long-term linear increase in the rates computed over gliding overlapping decadal time segments, and (3 a long-term increase of the annual increments of sea level.The estimation methods (1 and (2 prove to be more powerful in detecting acceleration when tested with sea-level records produced in global climate model simulations. These methods applied to the Baltic-Sea tide-gauges are, however, not powerful enough to detect a significant acceleration in most of individual records, although most estimated accelerations are positive. This lack of detection of statistically significant acceleration at the individual tide-gauge level can be due to the high-level of local noise and not necessarily to the absence of acceleration.The estimated accelerations tend to be stronger in the north and east of the Baltic Sea. Two hypothesis to explain this spatial pattern have been explored. One is that this pattern reflects the slow-down of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. However, a simple estimation of this effect suggests that this slow-down cannot explain the estimated acceleration. The second hypothesis is related to the diminishing sea-ice cover over the 20textsuperscript{th} century. The melting o of less saline and colder sea-ice can lead to changes in sea-level. Also, the melting of sea-ice can reduce the number of missing values in the tide-gauge records in winter, potentially influencing the estimated trends and acceleration of seasonal mean sea-level This hypothesis cannot be ascertained either since the spatial pattern of acceleration computed for winter and summer separately are very similar. The all-station-average-record displays an
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Reef-scale modeling of coral calcification responses to ocean acidification and sea-level rise
Nakamura, Takashi; Nadaoka, Kazuo; Watanabe, Atsushi; Yamamoto, Takahiro; Miyajima, Toshihiro; Blanco, Ariel C.
2018-03-01
To predict coral responses to future environmental changes at the reef scale, the coral polyp model (Nakamura et al. in Coral Reefs 32:779-794, 2013), which reconstructs coral responses to ocean acidification, flow conditions and other factors, was incorporated into a reef-scale three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model. This coupled reef-scale model was compared to observations from the Shiraho fringing reef, Ishigaki Island, Japan, where the model accurately reconstructed spatiotemporal variation in reef hydrodynamic and geochemical parameters. The simulated coral calcification rate exhibited high spatial variation, with lower calcification rates in the nearshore and stagnant water areas due to isolation of the inner reef at low tide, and higher rates on the offshore side of the inner reef flat. When water is stagnant, bottom shear stress is low at night and thus oxygen diffusion rate from ambient water to the inside of the coral polyp limits respiration rate. Thus, calcification decreases because of the link between respiration and calcification. A scenario analysis was conducted using the reef-scale model with several pCO2 and sea-level conditions based on IPCC (Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013) scenarios. The simulation indicated that the coral calcification rate decreases with increasing pCO2. On the other hand, sea-level rise increases the calcification rate, particularly in the nearshore and the areas where water is stagnant at low tide under present conditions, as mass exchange, especially oxygen exchange at night, is enhanced between the corals and their ambient seawater due to the reduced stagnant period. When both pCO2 increase and sea-level rise occur concurrently, the calcification rate generally decreases due to the effects of ocean acidification. However, the
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Haer, Toon; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kearney, Michael; Moll, Henk
2013-01-01
Global sea-level rise poses a significant threat not only for coastal communities as development continues but also for national economies. This paper presents estimates of how future changes in relative sea-level rise puts coastal populations at risk, as well as affect overall GDP in the
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Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew
2017-01-01
The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.
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Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew
2017-12-01
The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.
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Will Restored Tidal Marshes Be Sustainable?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michelle Orr
2003-10-01
Full Text Available We assess whether or not restored marshes in the San Francisco Estuary are expected to be sustainable in light of future landscape scale geomorphic processes given typical restored marsh conditions. Our assessment is based on a review of the literature, appraisal of monitoring data for restored marshes, and application of vertical accretion modeling of organic and inorganic sedimentation. Vertical accretion modeling suggests that salt marshes in San Pablo Bay will be sustainable for moderate relative sea level rise (3 to 5 mm yr-1 and average sediment supply (c. 100 mg L-1. Accelerated relative sea level rise (above 6 mm yr-1 and/or reduced sediment supply (50 mg L-1 will cause lowering of the marsh surface relative to the tide range and may cause shifts from high to low marsh vegetation by the year 2100. Widespread conversion of marsh to mudflat-"ecological drowning"-is not expected within this time frame. Marshes restored at lower elevations necessary to aid the natural development of channel systems (c. 0.5 m below mean higher high water are predicted to accrete to high marsh elevations by the year 2100 for moderate relative sea level rise and sediment supply conditions. Existing rates of sediment accretion in restored fresh water tidal marshes of the Delta of greater than 9 mm yr-1 and slightly lower drowning elevations suggest that these marshes will be resilient against relatively high rates of sea level rise. Because of higher rates of organic production, fresh water marshes are expected to be less sensitive to reduced sediment availability than salt marshes. The ultimate long-term threat to the sustainability of tidal marshes is the interruption of coastal rollover-the process by which landward marsh expansion in response to sea level rise compensates for shoreline erosion. Bay front development now prevents most landward marsh expansion, while shoreline erosion is expected to accelerate as sea level rises.
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Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Roger, Jean; Arnaud, Gael; Zahibo, Narcisse
2017-09-01
In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge - up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.