WorldWideScience

Sample records for level hydro-economic model

  1. A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  2. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Emanuel Hirsch

    Full Text Available Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity. Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

  3. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

  4. Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

  5. Environmental flows in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Pryet, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    The protection of environmental flows, as a management objective for a regulating agency, needs to be consistent with the aquifer water balance and the degree of resource renewability. A stylized hydro-economic model is used where natural recharge, which sustains environmental flows, is considered both in the aquifer water budget and in the welfare function as ecosystem damage. Groundwater recharge and the associated natural drainage may be neglected for aquifers containing fossil water, where the groundwater is mined. However, when dealing with an aquifer that constitutes a renewable resource, for which recharge is not negligible, natural drainage should explicitly appear in the water budget. In doing so, the optimum path of net extraction rate does not necessarily converge to the recharge rate, but depends on the costs associated with ecosystem damages. The optimal paths and equilibrium values for the water volume and water extraction are analytically derived, and numerical simulations based on the Western La Mancha aquifer (southwest Spain) illustrate the theoretical results of the study.

  6. Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

  7. A Linked Hydro-Economic Model to Examine the Effects of Water Policy on Rural Poverty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneta, M. P.; Torres, M.; Vosti, S. A.; Wallender, W. W.; Howitt, R.; Rodrigues, L. N.; Bassoi, L. H.; Pfeiffer, L.; Young, J.

    2006-12-01

    The sustainable intensification of small-scale agriculture is a necessary condition for reducing rural poverty in developing countries. Increasing the amount of irrigated cropland and the economic efficiency of irrigation are two key components of most intensification strategies. Improved access to water generally increases farm income but richer farmers use a disproportionate share of the available water, decreasing the chances of poor farmers to meet their water needs. Furthermore, water and poverty have strong spatial components that have so far been neglected in water planning. In that sense, too little is known about the short and long term hydrological effects, especially the externality effects of changes in on-farm water use and its implications to nearby farmers. To address this gap in knowledge, a spatially distributed and transient description of changes in surface and groundwater allocation under different agricultural management scenarios is needed. We propose a hydro-economic model providing a realistic spatio-temporal description of the linkages between the economic and hydrologic subsystems. This hydro-economic model is composed of a basin-level 3D spatially distributed transient hydrologic model (MOD-HMS) and a farm-level, spatially distributed agricultural production model. Both models are explicitly linked through the boundary conditions of the hydrologic model. The linkage will account for the spatial and temporal impact of different crop mixes, irrigation techniques and groundwater pumpage on water availability at farm level to assess the effects of policy action on the hydro-economic components of the system.

  8. Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Momblanch, Andrea; Connor, Jeffery D.; Crossman, Neville D.; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

    2016-07-01

    Demand for water is expected to grow in line with global human population growth, but opportunities to augment supply are limited in many places due to resource limits and expected impacts of climate change. Hydro-economic models are often used to evaluate water resources management options, commonly with a goal of understanding how to maximise water use value and reduce conflicts among competing uses. The environment is now an important factor in decision making, which has resulted in its inclusion in hydro-economic models. We reviewed 95 studies applying hydro-economic models, and documented how the environment is represented in them and the methods they use to value environmental costs and benefits. We also sought out key gaps and inconsistencies in the treatment of the environment in hydro-economic models. We found that representation of environmental values of water is patchy in most applications, and there should be systematic consideration of the scope of environmental values to include and how they should be valued. We argue that the ecosystem services framework offers a systematic approach to identify the full range of environmental costs and benefits. The main challenges to more holistic representation of the environment in hydro-economic models are the current limits to understanding of ecological functions which relate physical, ecological and economic values and critical environmental thresholds; and the treatment of uncertainty.

  9. A satellite-driven, client-server hydro-economic model prototype for agricultural water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; He, Mingzhu; Payton Gardner, W.

    2017-04-01

    Anticipating agricultural water demand, land reallocation, and impact on farm revenues associated with different policy or climate constraints is a challenge for water managers and for policy makers. While current integrated decision support systems based on programming methods provide estimates of farmer reaction to external constraints, they have important shortcomings such as the high cost of data collection surveys necessary to calibrate the model, biases associated with inadequate farm sampling, infrequent model updates and recalibration, model overfitting, or their deterministic nature, among other problems. In addition, the administration of water supplies and the generation of policies that promote sustainable agricultural regions depend on more than one bureau or office. Unfortunately, managers from local and regional agencies often use different datasets of variable quality, which complicates coordinated action. To overcome these limitations, we present a client-server, integrated hydro-economic modeling and observation framework driven by satellite remote sensing and other ancillary information from regional monitoring networks. The core of the framework is a stochastic data assimilation system that sequentially ingests remote sensing observations and corrects the parameters of the hydro-economic model at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions. An economic model of agricultural production, based on mathematical programming, requires information on crop type and extent, crop yield, crop transpiration and irrigation technology. A regional hydro-climatologic model provides biophysical constraints to an economic model of agricultural production with a level of detail that permits the study of the spatial impact of large- and small-scale water use decisions. Crop type and extent is obtained from the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), which is multi-sensor operational classification of crops maintained by the United States Department of Agriculture. Because

  10. Using hydro-economic modelling to investigate trade-offs between ecological and economic water management objectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riegels, Niels

    is that land and water use levels predicted by the two approaches are essentially the same. The prediction that high-value irrigated crops will not replace low-value crops is not unreasonable given behavior observed in the baseline data set and highlights the limitations of using economic models calibrated......In regions where water scarcity exists, economic analysis can help identify ways to increase benefits of water use. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), is an example of a law that requires the use of economic principles, approaches, and instruments in water resources management....... One of these instruments is water pricing. This study develops an approach for implementing the water pricing guidelines of the WFD at the river basin scale and then uses hydro-economic modelling to estimate the impacts of applying these guidelines. The central purpose of the WFD is the protection...

  11. Hydro-economic modeling of water scarcity under global change: an application to the Gállego river basin (Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graveline, N.; Majone, B.; van Duinen, Rianne; Ansink, E.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated approaches are needed to assess the effects of global changes on the future state of water resources at regional scales. We develop a hydro-economic model of the Gállego catchment, Spain, to assess how global change and policy options affect the catchment’s water scarcity and the economic

  12. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    demands to river basins to create hydro-economic zones that respect as much as possible both political and hydrologic integrity in different models. - To minimize pre-processing of data and add increased flexibility to modeling water resources and uses, it is recommended that water withdrawal demands be modeled, not consumptive requirements even though this makes the IAM more complex. - IAMs must consider changes in water availability for irrigation under climate change; ignoring them is more inaccurate than ignoring yield changes in crops under climate change. - Determining water availability and cost in river basins must include modeling streamflows, reservoirs and their operations, and ground water and its interaction with surface water. - Scale issues are important. The results from condensing demands and supplies in a large complex river basin to one node can be misleading for all uses under low flow conditions and instream flow uses under all conditions. Monthly is generally the most accurate scale for modeling river flows and demands. Challenges remain in integrating hydrologic units with political boundaries but the gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with political boundaries. - Using minimal reservoir cost data, it is possible to use basin topography to estimate reservoir storage costs. - Reservoir evaporation must be considered when assessing the usable water in a watershed. Several methods are available to estimate the relationship between aggregated storage surface area and storage volume. - For existing or future IAMs that can not use the appropriate aggregation for water, a water preprocessor may be required due the finer scale of hydrologic impacts.

  13. Hydro-economic modeling of integrated solutions for the water-energy-land nexus in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, S.; Kahil, M.; Wada, Y.; Krey, V.; Byers, E.; Johnson, N. A.; Burek, P.; Satoh, Y.; Willaarts, B.; Langan, S.; Riahi, K.

    2017-12-01

    This study focused on the development of the Extended Continental-scale Hydro-economic Optimization model (ECHO) and its application to the analysis of long-term water, energy and land use pathways for Africa. The framework is important because it integrates multi-decadal decisions surrounding investments into new water infrastructure, electric power generation and irrigation technologies. The improved linkages in ECHO reveal synergies between water allocation strategies across sectors and the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from electricity supply. The African case study features a reduced-form transboundary river network and associated environmental flow constraints covering surface and groundwater withdrawals. Interactions between local water constraints and the continental-scale economy are captured in the model through the combination of regional electricity markets. Spatially-explicit analysis of land availability is used to restrict future reservoir expansion. The analysis demonstrates the massive investments required to ensure rapidly expanding water, energy and food demands in Africa aligned with human development objectives are met in a sustainable way. Modeled constraints on environmental flows in line with presumptive ecological guidelines trigger diffusion of energy-intensive water supply technologies in water-stressed regions, with implications for the cost and speed of the electricity sector decarbonization required to achieve climate targets.

  14. Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  15. Hydro-economic modeling of the role of forests on water resources production in Andalusia, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, Santiago; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Álvarez-Palomino, Alejandro; Campos, Pablo

    2014-05-01

    The development of more refined information tools is a pre-requisite for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. Among these tools, hydro-economic models are favoured because they allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure and economic aspects into a coherent, scientifically-informed framework. We present a case study that assesses physically the water resources of forest lands of the Andalusia region in Spain and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of the forest surface water yield. We show how, based on available hydrologic and economic data, we can develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is part of the larger RECAMAN project, which aims at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income an capital generated by the forest land, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). Only a comprehensive integrated tool such as the one built within the RECAMAN project may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  16. Is it worth protecting groundwater from diffuse pollution with agri-environmental schemes? A hydro-economic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hérivaux, Cécile; Orban, Philippe; Brouyère, Serge

    2013-10-15

    In Europe, 30% of groundwater bodies are considered to be at risk of not achieving the Water Framework Directive (WFD) 'good status' objective by 2015, and 45% are in doubt of doing so. Diffuse agricultural pollution is one of the main pressures affecting groundwater bodies. To tackle this problem, the WFD requires Member States to design and implement cost-effective programs of measures to achieve the 'good status' objective by 2027 at the latest. Hitherto, action plans have mainly consisted of promoting the adoption of Agri-Environmental Schemes (AES). This raises a number of questions concerning the effectiveness of such schemes for improving groundwater status, and the economic implications of their implementation. We propose a hydro-economic model that combines a hydrogeological model to simulate groundwater quality evolution with agronomic and economic components to assess the expected costs, effectiveness, and benefits of AES implementation. This hydro-economic model can be used to identify cost-effective AES combinations at groundwater-body scale and to show the benefits to be expected from the resulting improvement in groundwater quality. The model is applied here to a rural area encompassing the Hesbaye aquifer, a large chalk aquifer which supplies about 230,000 inhabitants in the city of Liege (Belgium) and is severely contaminated by agricultural nitrates. We show that the time frame within which improvements in the Hesbaye groundwater quality can be expected may be much longer than that required by the WFD. Current WFD programs based on AES may be inappropriate for achieving the 'good status' objective in the most productive agricultural areas, in particular because these schemes are insufficiently attractive. Achieving 'good status' by 2027 would demand a substantial change in the design of AES, involving costs that may not be offset by benefits in the case of chalk aquifers with long renewal times. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies I: Model Development.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper an integrated modelling framework for water resources planning and management that can be used to carry out an analysis of alternative policy scenarios for water allocation and use is described. The modelling approach is based on integrating a network allocation model (REALM) and a

  18. Biofuel Crops Expansion: Evaluating the Impact on the Agricultural Water Scarcity Costs and Hydropower Production with Hydro Economic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, G.

    2015-12-01

    Biofuels such as ethanol from sugar cane remain an important element to help mitigate the impacts of fossil fuels on the atmosphere. However, meeting fuel demands with biofuels requires technological advancement for water productivity and scale of production. This may translate into increased water demands for biofuel crops and potential for conflicts with incumbent crops and other water uses including domestic, hydropower generation and environmental. It is therefore important to evaluate the effects of increased biofuel production on the verge of water scarcity costs and hydropower production. The present research applies a hydro-economic optimization model to compare different scenarios of irrigated biofuel and hydropower production, and estimates the potential tradeoffs. A case study from the Araguari watershed in Brazil is provided. These results should be useful to (i) identify improved water allocation among competing economic demands, (ii) support water management and operations decisions in watersheds where biofuels are expected to increase, and (iii) identify the impact of bio fuel production in the water availability and economic value. Under optimized conditions, adoption of sugar cane for biofuel production heavily relies on the opportunity costs of other crops and hydropower generation. Areas with a lower value crop groups seem more suitable to adopt sugar cane for biofuel when the price of ethanol is sufficiently high and the opportunity costs of hydropower productions are not conflicting. The approach also highlights the potential for insights in water management from studying regional versus larger scales bundled systems involving water use, food production and power generation.

  19. Hydro-Economic based Model of Damage and Loss Analysis of Winongo River Flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Rifki Hardika

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Winongo River experienced considerably high flow that caused overflows along the downstream part of the river and some inundation at the surrounding area. The inundation has reached up to 1 m spread over the Tegalrejo Sub-district of Yogyakarta City and swept two houses. This paper analyses the damage and loss due to the flood by taking into account the hydraulics phenomena and the economic impact at the inundation area. A hydraulics model has been developed to study the flow characteristics during the flood of Winongo River, especially in the river reach in Tegalrejo Sub-district. The hazard-induced damages in the flooded area were identified and the economic impacts were studied. Several related software have been utilized to analyse the damage and loss of the disaster, including the HEC-RAS 5.0, ArcGIS, HEC-GeoRAS and InaSAFE. Through the integration of the characteristics of both flood phenomena and the economic factor, the damage and loss were then analysed and the Average Annual Damage (AAD of approximately IDR 88,750,000,000 was obtained.

  20. Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: a hydro-economic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo; Purkey, David R

    2013-10-15

    to balance competing water demands in the basin and to increase economic water productivity, but might not be sufficient to ensure the provision of environmental flows as required by the WFD. A thoroughly revision of the basin's water use concession system for irrigation seems to be needed in order to bring the GRBMP in line with the WFD objectives. Furthermore, the study illustrates that social, economic, institutional, and technological factors, in addition to bio-physical conditions, are important issues to be considered for designing and developing water management strategies. The research initiative presented in this paper demonstrates that hydro-economic models can explicitly integrate all these issues, constituting a valuable tool that could assist policy makers for implementing sustainable irrigation policies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

    2013-04-01

    functionality is not typically included in other water DSS. Based on the resulting water resources allocation, the model calculates operating and water scarcity costs caused by supply deficits based on economic demand functions for each demand node. The optimization model allocates the available resource over time based on economic criteria (net benefits from demand curves and cost functions), minimizing the total water scarcity and operating cost of water use. This approach provides solutions that optimize the economic efficiency (as total net benefit) in water resources management over the optimization period. Both models must be used together in water resource planning and management. The optimization model provides an initial insight on economically efficient solutions, from which different operating rules can be further developed and tested using the simulation model. The hydro-economic simulation model allows assessing economic impacts of alternative policies or operating criteria, avoiding the perfect foresight issues associated with the optimization. The tools have been applied to the Jucar river basin (Spain) in order to assess the economic results corresponding to the current modus operandi of the system and compare them with the solution from the optimization that maximizes economic efficiency. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project (GENESIS project, n. 226536) and the Plan Nacional I+D+I 2008-2011 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and CGL2009-13238-C02-02).

  2. Impacts of climate change on the food-energy-water nexus in the upper Yellow River Basin: An integrated hydro-economic modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Y.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    The large-scale reservoir system built on the upper Yellow River serves multiple purposes. The generated hydropower supplies over 60% of the entire electricity for the regional power grid while the irrigated crop production feeds almost one-third of the total population throughout the whole river basin. Moreover, the reservoir system also bears the responsibility for controlling ice flood, which occurs during the non-flood season due to winter ice freezing followed by spring thawing process, and could be even more disastrous than the summer flood. The contradiction of water allocation to satisfy multi-sector demands while mitigating ice flood risk has been longstanding. However, few researchers endeavor to employ the nexus thinking to addressing the complexities involved in all the interlinked purposes. In this study, we develop an integrated hydro-economic model that can be used to explore both the tradeoffs and synergies between the multiple purposes, based on which the water infrastructures (e.g., reservoir, diversion canal, pumping well) can be coordinated for maximizing the co-benefits of multiple sectors. The model is based on a node-link schematic of multiple operations including hydropower generation, irrigation scheduling, and the conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources. In particular, the model depicts some details regarding reservoir operation rules during the ice season using two indicators, i.e., flow control period and flow control level. The rules are obtained from historical records using data mining techniques under different climate conditions, and they are added to the model as part of the system constraints. Future reservoir inflow series are generated by a hydrological model with future climate scenarios projected by General Circulation Model (GCM). By analyzing the model results under the various climate scenarios, the future possible shifting trajectory of the food-energy-water system characteristics will be derived compared to

  3. The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

    2013-12-01

    In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be

  4. Decision support for the management of water resources at Sub-middle of the São Francisco river basin in Brazil using integrated hydro-economic modeling and scenarios for land use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraes, M. G. A.; Souza da Silva, G.

    2016-12-01

    Hydro-economic models can measure the economic effects of different operating rules, environmental restrictions, ecosystems services, technical constraints and institutional constraints. Furthermore, water allocation can be improved by considering economical criteria's. Likewise, climate and land use change can be analyzed to provide resilience. We developed and applied a hydro-economic optimization model to determine the optimal water allocation of main users in the Lower-middle São Francisco River Basin in Northeast (NE) Brazil. The model uses demand curves for the irrigation projects, small farmers and human supply, rather than fixed requirements for water resources. This study analyzed various constraints and operating alternatives for the installed hydropower dams in economic terms. A seven-year period (2000-2006) with water scarcity in the past has been selected to analyze the water availability and the associated optimal economic water allocation. The used constraints are technical, socioeconomic and environmental. The economically impacts of scenarios like prioritizing human consumption, impacts of the implementation of the São Francisco river transposition, human supply without high distribution losses, environmental hydrographs, forced reservoir level control, forced reduced reservoir capacity, alteration of lower flow restriction were analyzed. The results in this period show that scarcity costs related ecosystem service and environmental constraints are significant, and have major impacts (increase of scarcity cost) for consumptive users like irrigation projects. In addition, institutional constraints such as prioritizing human supply, minimum release limits downstream of the reservoirs and the implementation of the transposition project impact the costs and benefits of the two main economic sectors (irrigation and power generation) in the region of the Lower-middle of the São Francisco river basin. Scarcity costs for irrigation users generally

  5. Hydro-Economic Modeling with Minimum Data Requirements: An Application to the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, M.; Maneta, M.; Vosti, S.; Wallender, W.; Howitt, R.

    2008-12-01

    Policymakers have been charged with the efficient, equitable, and sustainable use of water resources of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB), Brazil, and also with the promotion of economic growth and the reduction of poverty within the basin. To date, policymakers lack scientific evidence on the potential consequences for growth, poverty alleviation or environmental sustainability of alternative uses of water resources. To address these key knowledge gaps, we have linked a hydrologic and an economic model of agriculture to investigate how economic decisions affect available water, and vice versa. More specifically, the models are used to predict the effects of the application of Brazilian federal surface water use policies on farmer's net revenues and on the hydrologic system. The Economic Model of Agriculture. A spatially explicit, farm-level model capable of accommodating a broad array of farm sizes and farm/farmer characteristics is developed and used to predict the effects of alternative water policies and neighbors' water use patterns on crop mix choice. A production function comprised of seven categories of non-water-related inputs used in agriculture (land, fertilizers, pesticides, seeds, hired labor, family labor and machinery) and four water-related inputs used in agriculture (applied water, irrigation labor, irrigation capital and energy) is estimated. The parameters emerging from this estimated production function are then introduced into a non-linear, net revenue maximization positive mathematical programming algorithm that is used for simulations. The Hydrological Model. MIKE Basin, a semi-distributed hydrology model, is used to calculate water budgets for the SFRB. MIKE Basin calculates discharge at selected nodes by accumulating runoff down the river network; it simulates reservoirs using stage-area-storage and downstream release rule curves. The data used to run the model are discharge to calculate local runoff, precipitation, reference ET, crop

  6. Value versus Accuracy: application of seasonal forecasts to a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satti, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.; Badr, H. S.; Shukla, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    The unpredictable nature of precipitation within the East African (EA) region makes it one of the most vulnerable, food insecure regions in the world. There is a vital need for forecasts to inform decision makers, both local and regional, and to help formulate the region's climate change adaptation strategies. Here, we present a suite of different seasonal forecast models, both statistical and dynamical, for the EA region. Objective regionalization is performed for EA on the basis of interannual variability in precipitation in both observations and models. This regionalization is applied as the basis for calculating a number of standard skill scores to evaluate each model's forecast accuracy. A dynamically linked Land Surface Model (LSM) is then applied to determine forecasted flows, which drive the Sudanese Hydroeconomic Optimization Model (SHOM). SHOM combines hydrologic, agronomic and economic inputs to determine the optimal decisions that maximize economic benefits along the Sudanese Blue Nile. This modeling sequence is designed to derive the potential added value of information of each forecasting model to agriculture and hydropower management. A rank of each model's forecasting skill score along with its added value of information is analyzed in order compare the performance of each forecast. This research aims to improve understanding of how characteristics of accuracy, lead time, and uncertainty of seasonal forecasts influence their utility to water resources decision makers who utilize them.

  7. Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization and Industrial Transformation on Water Resources in China: An Integrated Hydro-Economic CGE Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jiang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Pressure on existing water resources in China is expected to increase with undergoing rapid demographic transformation, economic development, and global climate changes. We investigate the economy-wide impacts of projected urban population growth and economic structural change on water use and allocation in China. Using a multi-regional CGE (Computable General Equilibrium model, TERM (The Enormous Regional Model, we explore the implications of selected future water scenarios for China’s nine watershed regions. Our results indicate that urbanization and industrial transformation in China will raise the opportunity cost of water use and increase the competition for water between non-agricultural users and irrigation water users. The growth in water demand for domestic and industrial uses reduces the amount of water allocated to agriculture, particularly lower-value and water-intensive field crops. As a response, farmers have the incentive to shift their agricultural operations from traditional field crop production to higher-value livestock or intensive crop production. In addition, our results suggest that growing water demand due to urbanization and industrial transformation will raise the shadow price of water in all nine river basins. Finally, we find that national economic growth is largely attributable to urbanization and non-agricultural productivity growth.

  8. A Spatial Decision Support System to incorporate hydro-economic modeling results in the management of water resources under decentralized institutional arrangements in a semiarid reservoir region in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcoforado de Moraes, Márcia; Silva, Gerald; Siegmund-Schultze, Marianna

    2017-04-01

    The integration of economic and hydrological components in models, aimed to support evaluating alternatives of water allocation policies, is promising, though, challenging. Worldwide, these models have been used primarily in academia, and so far seldom by water managers for practical purposes. Ideally, the models should be available through a Decision Support System. The São Francisco River Basin in Northeast of Brazil has around 48% of its area in a semi-arid region. Irrigation and public water supply are the primary water use sectors, along with hydropower utilization. The water for electricity generation is stored in two large reservoirs, built 30 to 50 years ago under the premise of regulating flows for hydropower and controlling floods. Since 20 years, however, the law stipulates the multiple uses paradigm in a participatory and decentralized way. So far, only few rules laid down. Studies revealed that most of the respective institutions still needed to update their routines to the new paradigm. A hydro-economic model was developed and applied in order to determine the economically optimal water allocation of main users in that semiarid reservoir region. In order to make this model available to the decision makers, a minimum required is some form of manipulating data entry and output as well as some graphical interfaces. We propose and present the first features of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with dedicated hydro-economic modules in a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) environment for integrated water resource management. The open model platform should include geoprocessing tasks and water user related data management. The hydro-economic geoprocessing will link to generic optimization modeling systems, such as EXCEL Solver, GAMS and MATLAB. The institutions are deliberating or deciding over water allocation at different scales could use the generated information on potential economic benefits as a transparent basis for discussion. In

  9. Hydro-economic optimization model for selecting least cost programs of measures at the river basin scale. Application to the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive on the Orb river basin (France).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, C.; Rinaudo, J. D.; Caballero, Y.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.

    2012-04-01

    This article presents a case study which illustrates how an integrated hydro-economic model can be applied to optimize a program of measures (PoM) at the river basin level. By allowing the integration of hydrological, environmental and economic aspects at a local scale, this model is indeed useful to assist water policy decision making processes. The model identifies the least cost PoM to satisfy the predicted 2030 urban and agricultural water demands while meeting the in-stream flow constraints. The PoM mainly consists of water saving and conservation measures at the different demands. It includes as well some measures mobilizing additional water resources coming from groundwater, inter-basin transfers and improvement in reservoir operating rules. The flow constraints are defined to ensure a good status of the surface water bodies, as defined by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). The case study is conducted in the Orb river basin, a coastal basin in Southern France. It faces a significant population growth, changes in agricultural patterns and limited water resources. It is classified at risk of not meeting the good status by 2015. Urban demand is calculated by type of water users at municipality level in 2006 and projected to 2030 with user specific scenarios. Agricultural water demand is estimated at irrigation district (canton) level in 2000 and projected to 2030 under three agricultural development scenarios. The total annual cost of each measure has been calculated taken into account operation and maintenance costs as well as investment cost. A first optimization model was developed using GAMS, General Algebraic Modeling System, applying Mixed Integer Linear Programming. The optimization is run to select the set of measures that minimizes the objective function, defined as the total cost of the applied measures, while meeting the demands and environmental constraints (minimum in-stream flows) for the 2030 time horizon. The first result is an optimized Po

  10. Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Amin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

  11. Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea project? Hydro-economics and governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Rosenberg

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Seven decades of extractions have dramatically reduced Jordan River flows, lowered the Dead Sea level, opened sink holes, and caused other environmental problems. The fix Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinians propose would build an expensive multipurpose conveyance project from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea that would also generate hydropower and desalinate water. This paper compares the Red-Dead project to alternatives that may also raise the Dead Sea level. Hydro-economic model results for the Jordan-Israel-Palestinian inter-tied water systems show two restoration alternatives are more economically viable than the proposed Red-Dead project. Many decentralized new supply, wastewater reuse, conveyance, conservation, and leak reduction projects and programs in each country can together increase economic benefits and reliably deliver up to 900 MCM yr−1 to the Dead Sea. Similarly, a smaller Red-Dead project that only generates hydropower can deliver large flows to the Dead Sea when the sale price of generated electricity is sufficiently high. However, for all restoration options, net benefits fall and water scarcity rises as flows to the Dead Sea increase. This finding suggests (i each country has no individual incentive to return water to the Dead Sea, and (ii outside institutions that seek to raise the Dead must also offer countries direct incentives to deliver water to the Sea besides building the countries new infrastructure.

  12. The Hydro-Economic Interdependency of Cities: Virtual Water Connections of the Phoenix, Arizona Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard R. Rushforth

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Water footprinting has revealed hydro-economic interdependencies between distant global geographies via trade, especially of agricultural and manufactured goods. However, for metropolitan areas, trade not only entails commodity flows at many scales from intra-municipal to global, but also substantial intra-metropolitan flows of the skilled labor that is essential to a city’s high-value economy. Virtual water flows between municipalities are directly relevant for municipal water supply policy and infrastructure investment because they quantify the hydro-economic dependency between neighboring municipalities. These municipalities share a physical water supply and also place demands on their neighbors’ water supplies by outsourcing labor and commodity production outside the municipal and water supply system boundary to the metropolitan area. Metropolitan area communities span dense urban cores to fringe agricultural towns, spanning a wide range of the US hydro-economy. This study quantifies water footprints and virtual water flows of the complete economy of the Phoenix Metropolitan Area’s municipalities. A novel approach utilized journey to work data to estimate virtual water flows embedded in labor. Commodities dominate virtual water flows at all scales of analysis, however labor is shown to be important for intra-metropolitan virtual water flows. This is the first detailed water footprint analysis of Phoenix, an important city in a water-scarce region. This study establishes a hydro-economic typology for communities to define several niche roles and decision making points of view. This study’s findings can be used to classify communities with respect to their relative roles, and to benchmark future improvements in water sustainability for all types of communities. More importantly, these findings motivate cooperative approaches to intra-metropolitan water supply policy that recognize the hydro-economic interdependence of these

  13. A new and integrated hydro-economic accounting and analytical framework for water resources: a case study for North China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Dabo; Hubacek, Klaus

    2008-09-01

    Water is a critical issue in China for a variety of reasons. China is poor of water resources with 2,300 m(3) of per capita availability, which is less than 13 of the world average. This is exacerbated by regional differences; e.g. North China's water availability is only about 271 m(3) of per capita value, which is only 125 of the world's average. Furthermore, pollution contributes to water scarcity and is a major source for diseases, particularly for the poor. The Ministry of Hydrology [1997. China's Regional Water Bullets. Water Resource and Hydro-power Publishing House, Beijing, China] reports that about 65-80% of rivers in North China no longer support any economic activities. Previous studies have emphasized the amount of water withdrawn but rarely take water quality into consideration. The quality of the return flows usually changes; the water quality being lower than the water flows that entered the production process initially. It is especially important to measure the impacts of wastewater to the hydro-ecosystem. Thus, water consumption should not only account for the amount of water inputs but also the amount of water contaminated in the hydro-ecosystem by the discharged wastewater. In this paper we present a new accounting and analytical approach based on economic input-output modelling combined with a mass balanced hydrological model that links interactions in the economic system with interactions in the hydrological system. We thus follow the tradition of integrated economic-ecologic input-output modelling. Our hydro-economic accounting framework and analysis tool allows tracking water consumption on the input side, water pollution leaving the economic system and water flows passing through the hydrological system thus enabling us to deal with water resources of different qualities. Following this method, the results illustrate that North China requires 96% of its annual available water, including both water inputs for the economy and contaminated

  14. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies II: Scenario Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the results of an assessment of the hydrological and economic implications of reallocating water in the Musi sub-basin, a catchment within the Krishna Basin in India, are reported. Policy makers identified a number of different but plausible scenarios that could apply in the sub-basin,

  15. Coupled Hydro-Economic Dynamics of Groundwater Irrigated Agriculture in a Hard Rock Region of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modi, V.; Fishman, R.; Siegfried, T. U.; Raj, P.; Vasquez, V.; Narula, K.; Lall, U.

    2009-12-01

    We analyze the dynamics of groundwater and irrigated agriculture in a semi-arid, hard rock region of India, which is characterized by low-yield, limited storativity aquifers. Telengana, in western Andhra Pradesh has witnessed a relentless expansion of the total irrigated area. Total crop irrigation water requirements have increased by more than 50 percent over the last 30 years. Nowadays, more than 80 percent of the net irrigated area in the region is irrigated from groundwater. Given limited, period monsoonal recharge to the aquifers, it can be estimated that groundwater irrigation intensity is surpassing sustainable allocation levels by a factor of 3. It is not further surprising that the region is increasingly affected by widespread groundwater depletion, with negative consequences for farmers and the energy sector as well as the natural environment. Using data on water tables, precipitation and agricultural land use, we show how both rainfall and farmers’ choices effect water tables and how these, in turn, re-effect farmers choices and agricultural outcomes in a dynamic relationship that allows us to model the interaction between the natural hydrological and agricultural-social dynamics. We use the model to elucidate and quantify the meaning of groundwater mining in this hard rock environment. In contrast to deep alluvial aquifers, excessive extraction does not lead to sustained long term deepening of the water table, but to increased fluctuations in the supply of groundwater for irrigation and the loss of the buffering capacity. For the farmers, this potentially translates into increasingly perilous agricultural production outcomes during monsoonal failures. Furthermore, the dry season agricultural production that entirely depends on the availability of sufficient amounts of irrigation water is progressively threatened under the current allocation scenario. Alternative management practices to address the aquifer depletion issues are discussed. We show that

  16. Multi-Level Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constanta Nicoleta BODEA

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Is an original paper, which contains a hierarchical model with three levels, for determining the linearized non-homogeneous and homogeneous credibility premiums at company level, at sector level and at contract level, founded on the relevant covariance relations between the risk premium, the observations and the weighted averages. We give a rather explicit description of the input data for the multi- level hierarchical model used, only to show that in practical situations, there will always be enough data to apply credibility theory to a real insurance portfolio.

  17. Surface-near geothermal power. Handling of hydro-economic requirements in the practice; Oberflaechennahe Geothermie. Umgang mit den wasserwirtschaftlichen Anforderungen in der Praxis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-12-15

    Within the meeting of the Bavarian Environment Agency (Augsburg, Federal Republic of Germany) at 1st December, 2009, the following lectures were held: (1) Hydro-economical requirements and working assistance of the Bavarian Environment Agency (Hannes Berger); (2) Technology, dimensioning and safety devices for heat pumps and heat source plants soil - groundwater (Erich Ramming); (3) Well devices for the thermal utilization of the groundwater - planning, production and quality assurance (Michael Thoren); (4) Geothermal probes: Handling of raw materials and welding at the building site (Hubert Graf); (5) Geothermal probes - planning and calculation (Burkhard Sanner); (6) Geothermal probes - drilling operations (Sven Tewes); (7) Certification of drilling companies according to W 120 (Udo Peth); (8) Operation of geothermal plants - Examples from one-family house to football stadium (Arno Poehlmann).

  18. Satellite-guided hydro-economic analysis for integrated management and prediction of the impact of droughts on agricultural regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneta, M. P.; Howitt, R.; Kimball, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Agricultural activity can exacerbate or buffer the impact of climate variability, especially droughts, on the hydrologic and socioeconomic conditions of rural areas. Potential negative regional impacts of droughts include impoverishment of agricultural regions, deterioration or overuse of water resources, risk of monoculture, and regional dependence on external food markets. Policies that encourage adequate management practices in the face of adverse climatic events are critical to preserve rural livelihoods and to ensure a sustainable future for agriculture. Diagnosing and managing drought effects on agricultural production, on the social and natural environment, and on limited water resources, is highly complex and interdisciplinary. The challenges that decision-makers face to mitigate the impact of water shortage are social, agronomic, economic and environmental in nature and therefore must be approached from an integrated multidisciplinary point of view. Existing observation technologies, in conjunction with models and assimilation methods open the opportunity for novel interdisciplinary analysis tools to support policy and decision making. We present an integrated modeling and observation framework driven by satellite remote sensing and other ancillary information from regional monitoring networks to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, management decisions and socioeconomic policy. The core of this framework is a hydroeconomic model of agricultural production that assimilates remote sensing inputs to quantify the amount of land, water, fertilizer and labor farmers allocate for each crop they choose to grow on a seasonal basis in response to changing climatic conditions, including drought. A regional hydroclimatologic model provides biophysical constraints to an economic model of agricultural production based on a class of models referred to as positive mathematical programming (PMP

  19. Economic assessment at farm level of the implementation of deficit irrigation for quinoa production in the Southern Bolivian Altiplano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cusicanqui

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the Southern Bolivian Altiplano recent research has suggested to introduce deficit irrigation as a strategy to boost quinoa yields and to stabilize it at 2.0 ton ha-1. In this study we carried out an economic assessment of the implementation of deficit irrigation at farm level using a hydro-economic model for simulating profit for quinoa production. As input of the model we worked with previously developed farms typology (livestock, quinoa and subsistence farms, simulated quinoa production with and without irrigation using AquaCrop model, and calculated yield response functions for four different climate scenarios (wet, normal, dry and very dry years. Results from the hydro-economic model demonstrate that maximum profit is achieved with less applied irrigated water than for maximum yield, and irrigated quinoa earned more profit than rainfed production for all farms types and climate scenarios. As expected, the benefits of irrigation under dry and very dry climate conditions were higher than those under normal and wet years, and benefits among farms types were higher for quinoa farms. In fact, profit of irrigated quinoa might be stabilized at around BOB 6500 ha-1 (about USD 920 compared with the huge differences found for rainfed conditions for all climate scenarios. Interestingly, the economic water productivity, expressed in terms of economic return for amount of applied irrigated water (BOB mm-1, reached the highest values with intermediate and low level of water availability schemes of deficit irrigation for all climate scenarios.

  20. Modeling Multi-Level Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Iordache, Octavian

    2011-01-01

    This book is devoted to modeling of multi-level complex systems, a challenging domain for engineers, researchers and entrepreneurs, confronted with the transition from learning and adaptability to evolvability and autonomy for technologies, devices and problem solving methods. Chapter 1 introduces the multi-scale and multi-level systems and highlights their presence in different domains of science and technology. Methodologies as, random systems, non-Archimedean analysis, category theory and specific techniques as model categorification and integrative closure, are presented in chapter 2. Chapters 3 and 4 describe polystochastic models, PSM, and their developments. Categorical formulation of integrative closure offers the general PSM framework which serves as a flexible guideline for a large variety of multi-level modeling problems. Focusing on chemical engineering, pharmaceutical and environmental case studies, the chapters 5 to 8 analyze mixing, turbulent dispersion and entropy production for multi-scale sy...

  1. Level Design as Model Transformation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dormans, Joris

    2011-01-01

    This paper frames the process of designing a level in a game as a series of model transformations. The transformations correspond to the application of particular design principles, such as the use of locks and keys to transform a linear mission into a branching space. It shows that by using rewrite

  2. Enhanced Waste Tank Level Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duignan, M.R.

    1999-06-24

    'With the increased sensitivity of waste-level measurements in the H-Area Tanks and with periods of isolation, when no mass transfer occurred for certain tanks, waste-level changes have been recorded with are unexplained.'

  3. Translation of a High-Level Temporal Model into Lower Level Models: Impact of Modelling at Different Description Levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraft, Peter; Sørensen, Jens Otto

    2001-01-01

    The paper attempts theoretically to clarify the interrelation between various levels of descriptions used in the modelling and the programming of information systems. We suggest an analysis where we characterise the description levels with respect to how precisely they may handle information abou...... and other textual models. We also consider the aptness of models that include procedural mechanisms such as active and object databases...

  4. Translation of a High-Level Temporal Model into Lower Level Models: Impact of Modelling at Different Description Levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraft, Peter; Sørensen, Jens Otto

    2001-01-01

    given types of properties, and examine how descriptions on higher levels translate into descriptions on lower levels. Our example looks at temporal properties where the information is concerned with the existence in time. In a high level temporal model with information kept in a three-dimensional space...... the existences in time can be mapped precisely and consistently securing a consistent handling of the temporal properties. We translate the high level temporal model into an entity-relationship model, with the information in a two-dimensional graph, and finally we look at the translations into relational...... and other textual models. We also consider the aptness of models that include procedural mechanisms such as active and object databases...

  5. System level modeling and component level control of fuel cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Xingjian

    This dissertation investigates the fuel cell systems and the related technologies in three aspects: (1) system-level dynamic modeling of both PEM fuel cell (PEMFC) and solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC); (2) condition monitoring scheme development of PEM fuel cell system using model-based statistical method; and (3) strategy and algorithm development of precision control with potential application in energy systems. The dissertation first presents a system level dynamic modeling strategy for PEM fuel cells. It is well known that water plays a critical role in PEM fuel cell operations. It makes the membrane function appropriately and improves the durability. The low temperature operating conditions, however, impose modeling difficulties in characterizing the liquid-vapor two phase change phenomenon, which becomes even more complex under dynamic operating conditions. This dissertation proposes an innovative method to characterize this phenomenon, and builds a comprehensive model for PEM fuel cell at the system level. The model features the complete characterization of multi-physics dynamic coupling effects with the inclusion of dynamic phase change. The model is validated using Ballard stack experimental result from open literature. The system behavior and the internal coupling effects are also investigated using this model under various operating conditions. Anode-supported tubular SOFC is also investigated in the dissertation. While the Nernst potential plays a central role in characterizing the electrochemical performance, the traditional Nernst equation may lead to incorrect analysis results under dynamic operating conditions due to the current reverse flow phenomenon. This dissertation presents a systematic study in this regard to incorporate a modified Nernst potential expression and the heat/mass transfer into the analysis. The model is used to investigate the limitations and optimal results of various operating conditions; it can also be utilized to perform the

  6. Combinatorial nuclear level-density model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uhrenholt, H.; Åberg, S.; Dobrowolski, A.; Døssing, Th.; Ichikawa, T.; Möller, P.

    2013-01-01

    A microscopic nuclear level-density model is presented. The model is a completely combinatorial (micro-canonical) model based on the folded-Yukawa single-particle potential and includes explicit treatment of pairing, rotational and vibrational states. The microscopic character of all states enables extraction of level-distribution functions with respect to pairing gaps, parity and angular momentum. The results of the model are compared to available experimental data: level spacings at neutron separation energy, data on total level-density functions from the Oslo method, cumulative level densities from low-lying discrete states, and data on parity ratios. Spherical and deformed nuclei follow basically different coupling schemes, and we focus on deformed nuclei

  7. Global and local level density models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koning, A.J.; Hilaire, S.; Goriely, S.

    2008-01-01

    Four different level density models, three phenomenological and one microscopic, are consistently parameterized using the same set of experimental observables. For each of the phenomenological models, the Constant Temperature Model, the Back-shifted Fermi gas Model and the Generalized Superfluid Model, a version without and with explicit collective enhancement is considered. Moreover, a recently published microscopic combinatorial model is compared with the phenomenological approaches and with the same set of experimental data. For each nuclide for which sufficient experimental data exists, a local level density parameterization is constructed for each model. Next, these local models have helped to construct global level density prescriptions, to be used for cases for which no experimental data exists. Altogether, this yields a collection of level density formulae and parameters that can be used with confidence in nuclear model calculations. To demonstrate this, a large-scale validation with experimental discrete level schemes and experimental cross sections and neutron emission spectra for various different reaction channels has been performed

  8. System level modelling with open source tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Mikkel Koefoed; Madsen, Jan; Niaki, Seyed Hosein Attarzadeh

    , called ForSyDe. ForSyDe is available under the open Source approach, which allows small and medium enterprises (SME) to get easy access to advanced modeling capabilities and tools. We give an introduction to the design methodology through the system level modeling of a simple industrial use case, and we...

  9. Noise in restaurants: levels and mathematical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    To, Wai Ming; Chung, Andy

    2014-01-01

    Noise affects the dining atmosphere and is an occupational hazard to restaurant service employees worldwide. This paper examines the levels of noise in dining areas during peak hours in different types of restaurants in Hong Kong SAR, China. A mathematical model that describes the noise level in a restaurant is presented. The 1-h equivalent continuous noise level (L(eq,1-h)) was measured using a Type-1 precision integral sound level meter while the occupancy density, the floor area of the dining area, and the ceiling height of each of the surveyed restaurants were recorded. It was found that the measured noise levels using Leq,1-h ranged from 67.6 to 79.3 dBA in Chinese restaurants, from 69.1 to 79.1 dBA in fast food restaurants, and from 66.7 to 82.6 dBA in Western restaurants. Results of the analysis of variance show that there were no significant differences between means of the measured noise levels among different types of restaurants. A stepwise multiple regression analysis was employed to determine the relationships between geometrical and operational parameters and the measured noise levels. Results of the regression analysis show that the measured noise levels depended on the levels of occupancy density only. By reconciling the measured noise levels and the mathematical model, it was found that people in restaurants increased their voice levels when the occupancy density increased. Nevertheless, the maximum measured hourly noise level indicated that the noise exposure experienced by restaurant service employees was below the regulated daily noise exposure value level of 85 dBA.

  10. Noise in restaurants: Levels and mathematical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wai Ming To

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Noise affects the dining atmosphere and is an occupational hazard to restaurant service employees worldwide. This paper examines the levels of noise in dining areas during peak hours in different types of restaurants in Hong Kong SAR, China. A mathematical model that describes the noise level in a restaurant is presented. The 1-h equivalent continuous noise level (Leq,1-h was measured using a Type-1 precision integral sound level meter while the occupancy density, the floor area of the dining area, and the ceiling height of each of the surveyed restaurants were recorded. It was found that the measured noise levels using Leq,1-h ranged from 67.6 to 79.3 dBA in Chinese restaurants, from 69.1 to 79.1 dBA in fast food restaurants, and from 66.7 to 82.6 dBA in Western restaurants. Results of the analysis of variance show that there were no significant differences between means of the measured noise levels among different types of restaurants. A stepwise multiple regression analysis was employed to determine the relationships between geometrical and operational parameters and the measured noise levels. Results of the regression analysis show that the measured noise levels depended on the levels of occupancy density only. By reconciling the measured noise levels and the mathematical model, it was found that people in restaurants increased their voice levels when the occupancy density increased. Nevertheless, the maximum measured hourly noise level indicated that the noise exposure experienced by restaurant service employees was below the regulated daily noise exposure value level of 85 dBA.

  11. Modelling of Signal - Level Crossing System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Novak

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The author presents an object-oriented model of a railway level-crossing system created for the purpose of functional requirements specification. Unified Modelling Language (UML, version 1.4, which enables specification, visualisation, construction and documentation of software system artefacts, was used. The main attention was paid to analysis and design phases. The former phase resulted in creation of use case diagrams and sequential diagrams, the latter in creation of class/object diagrams and statechart diagrams.

  12. Models, controls, and levels of semiotic autonomy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joslyn, C.

    1998-12-01

    In this paper the authors consider forms of autonomy, forms of semiotic systems, and any necessary relations among them. Levels of autonomy are identified as levels of system identity, from adiabatic closure to disintegration. Forms of autonomy or closure in systems are also recognized, including physical, dynamical, functional, and semiotic. Models and controls are canonical linear and circular (closed) semiotic relations respectively. They conclude that only at higher levels of autonomy do semiotic properties become necessary. In particular, all control systems display at least a minimal degree of semiotic autonomy; and all systems with sufficiently interesting functional autonomy are semiotically related to their environments.

  13. The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In

  14. Modeling irrigation behavior in groundwater systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Timothy; Brozović, Nicholas; Butler, Adrian P.

    2014-08-01

    Integrated hydro-economic models have been widely applied to water management problems in regions of intensive groundwater-fed irrigation. However, policy interpretations may be limited as most existing models do not explicitly consider two important aspects of observed irrigation decision making, namely the limits on instantaneous irrigation rates imposed by well yield and the intraseasonal structure of irrigation planning. We develop a new modeling approach for determining irrigation demand that is based on observed farmer behavior and captures the impacts on production and water use of both well yield and climate. Through a case study of irrigated corn production in the Texas High Plains region of the United States we predict optimal irrigation strategies under variable levels of groundwater supply, and assess the limits of existing models for predicting land and groundwater use decisions by farmers. Our results show that irrigation behavior exhibits complex nonlinear responses to changes in groundwater availability. Declining well yields induce large reductions in the optimal size of irrigated area and irrigation use as constraints on instantaneous application rates limit the ability to maintain sufficient soil moisture to avoid negative impacts on crop yield. We demonstrate that this important behavioral response to limited groundwater availability is not captured by existing modeling approaches, which therefore may be unreliable predictors of irrigation demand, agricultural profitability, and resilience to climate change and aquifer depletion.

  15. Using Models to Understand Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth-Cohen, Lauren; Medina, Edwing

    2017-01-01

    Important science phenomena--such as atomic structure, evolution, and climate change--are often hard to observe directly. That's why an important scientific practice is to use scientific models to represent one's current understanding of a system. Using models has been included as an essential science and engineering practice in the "Next…

  16. Stochastic Models for Low Level DNA Mixtures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Slovák, Dalibor; Zvárová, Jana

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 5 (2012), s. 25-30 ISSN 1801-5603 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) SVV-2012-264513 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : forensic DNA interpretation * low level samples * allele peak areas * dropout probability Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science http://www.ejbi.org/img/ejbi/2012/5/Slovak_en.pdf

  17. Stochastic Models for Low Level DNA Mixtures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Slovák, Dalibor; Zvárová, Jana

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 1 (2013), s. 28-28 ISSN 1805-8698. [EFMI 2013 Special Topic Conference. 17.04.2013-19.04.2013, Prague] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : forensic DNA interpretation * low level samples * allele peak heights * dropout probability Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science

  18. Semiparametric Copula Models for Biometric Score Level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caselli, M.

    2016-01-01

    In biometric recognition systems, biometric samples (images of faces, finger- prints, voices, gaits, etc.) of people are compared and classifiers (matchers) indicate the level of similarity between any pair of samples by a score. If two samples of the same person are compared, a genuine score is

  19. Modeling category-level purchase timing with brand-level marketing variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPurchase timing of households is usually modeled at the category level. Marketing efforts are however only available at the brand level. Hence, to describe category-level interpurchase times using marketing efforts one has to construct a category-level measure of marketing efforts from

  20. Moderation analysis using a two-level regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ke-Hai; Cheng, Ying; Maxwell, Scott

    2014-10-01

    Moderation analysis is widely used in social and behavioral research. The most commonly used model for moderation analysis is moderated multiple regression (MMR) in which the explanatory variables of the regression model include product terms, and the model is typically estimated by least squares (LS). This paper argues for a two-level regression model in which the regression coefficients of a criterion variable on predictors are further regressed on moderator variables. An algorithm for estimating the parameters of the two-level model by normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) is developed. Formulas for the standard errors (SEs) of the parameter estimates are provided and studied. Results indicate that, when heteroscedasticity exists, NML with the two-level model gives more efficient and more accurate parameter estimates than the LS analysis of the MMR model. When error variances are homoscedastic, NML with the two-level model leads to essentially the same results as LS with the MMR model. Most importantly, the two-level regression model permits estimating the percentage of variance of each regression coefficient that is due to moderator variables. When applied to data from General Social Surveys 1991, NML with the two-level model identified a significant moderation effect of race on the regression of job prestige on years of education while LS with the MMR model did not. An R package is also developed and documented to facilitate the application of the two-level model.

  1. Random Intercept and Random Slope 2-Level Multilevel Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehan Ahmad Khan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Random intercept model and random intercept & random slope model carrying two-levels of hierarchy in the population are presented and compared with the traditional regression approach. The impact of students’ satisfaction on their grade point average (GPA was explored with and without controlling teachers influence. The variation at level-1 can be controlled by introducing the higher levels of hierarchy in the model. The fanny movement of the fitted lines proves variation of student grades around teachers.

  2. Multivariate Term Structure Models with Level and Heteroskedasticity Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2005-01-01

    The paper introduces and estimates a multivariate level-GARCH model for the long rate and the term-structure spread where the conditional volatility is proportional to the ãth power of the variable itself (level effects) and the conditional covariance matrix evolves according to a multivariate GA...... and the level model. GARCH effects are more important than level effects. The results are robust to the maturity of the interest rates. Udgivelsesdato: MAY...

  3. An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

    2016-04-01

    We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

  4. Modeling category-level purchase timing with brand-level marketing variables

    OpenAIRE

    Fok, D.; Paap, R.

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPurchase timing of households is usually modeled at the category level. Marketing efforts are however only available at the brand level. Hence, to describe category-level interpurchase times using marketing efforts one has to construct a category-level measure of marketing efforts from the marketing mix of individual brands. In this paper we discuss two standard approaches suggested in the literature to solve this problem, that is, using individual choice shares as weights to aver...

  5. Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

    2017-12-01

    For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

  6. Accident sequence precursor analysis level 2/3 model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, C.H.; Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.

    1997-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program currently uses simple Level 1 models to assess the conditional core damage probability for operational events occurring in commercial nuclear power plants (NPP). Since not all accident sequences leading to core damage will result in the same radiological consequences, it is necessary to develop simple Level 2/3 models that can be used to analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude of the resulting radioactive releases to the environment, and calculate the consequences associated with these releases. The simple Level 2/3 model development work was initiated in 1995, and several prototype models have been completed. Once developed, these simple Level 2/3 models are linked to the simple Level 1 models to provide risk perspectives for operational events. This paper describes the methods implemented for the development of these simple Level 2/3 ASP models, and the linkage process to the existing Level 1 models

  7. Modeling and low-level waste management: an interagency workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Little, C.A.; Stratton, L.E. (comps.)

    1980-01-01

    The interagency workshop on Modeling and Low-Level Waste Management was held on December 1-4, 1980 in Denver, Colorado. Twenty papers were presented at this meeting which consisted of three sessions. First, each agency presented its point of view concerning modeling and the need for models in low-level radioactive waste applications. Second, a larger group of more technical papers was presented by persons actively involved in model development or applications. Last of all, four workshops were held to attempt to reach a consensus among participants regarding numerous waste modeling topics. Abstracts are provided for the papers presented at this workshop.

  8. Modeling and low-level waste management: an interagency workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Stratton, L.E.

    1980-01-01

    The interagency workshop on Modeling and Low-Level Waste Management was held on December 1-4, 1980 in Denver, Colorado. Twenty papers were presented at this meeting which consisted of three sessions. First, each agency presented its point of view concerning modeling and the need for models in low-level radioactive waste applications. Second, a larger group of more technical papers was presented by persons actively involved in model development or applications. Last of all, four workshops were held to attempt to reach a consensus among participants regarding numerous waste modeling topics. Abstracts are provided for the papers presented at this workshop

  9. Income Distribution Over Educational Levels: A Simple Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinbergen, Jan

    An econometric model is formulated that explains income per person in various compartments of the labor market defined by three main levels of education and by education required. The model enables an estimation of the effect of increased access to education on that distribution. The model is based on a production for the economy as a whole; a…

  10. System-level Modeling of Wireless Integrated Sensor Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Virk, Kashif M.; Hansen, Knud; Madsen, Jan

    2005-01-01

    Wireless integrated sensor networks have emerged as a promising infrastructure for a new generation of monitoring and tracking applications. In order to efficiently utilize the extremely limited resources of wireless sensor nodes, accurate modeling of the key aspects of wireless sensor networks...... is necessary so that system-level design decisions can be made about the hardware and the software (applications and real-time operating system) architecture of sensor nodes. In this paper, we present a SystemC-based abstract modeling framework that enables system-level modeling of sensor network behavior...... by modeling the applications, real-time operating system, sensors, processor, and radio transceiver at the sensor node level and environmental phenomena, including radio signal propagation, at the sensor network level. We demonstrate the potential of our modeling framework by simulating and analyzing a small...

  11. Ferromagnetic interaction model of activity level in workplace communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akitomi, Tomoaki; Ara, Koji; Watanabe, Jun-ichiro; Yano, Kazuo

    2013-03-01

    The nature of human-human interaction, specifically, how people synchronize with each other in multiple-participant conversations, is described by a ferromagnetic interaction model of people’s activity levels. We found two microscopic human interaction characteristics from a real-environment face-to-face conversation. The first characteristic is that people quite regularly synchronize their activity level with that of the other participants in a conversation. The second characteristic is that the degree of synchronization increases as the number of participants increases. Based on these microscopic ferromagnetic characteristics, a “conversation activity level” was modeled according to the Ising model. The results of a simulation of activity level based on this model well reproduce macroscopic experimental measurements of activity level. This model will give a new insight into how people interact with each other in a conversation.

  12. A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

    2015-03-01

    Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

  13. Hydro-economic assessment of hydrological forecasting systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucher, M.-A.; Tremblay, D.; Delorme, L.; Perreault, L.; Anctil, F.

    2012-01-01

    SummaryAn increasing number of publications show that ensemble hydrological forecasts exhibit good performance when compared to observed streamflow. Many studies also conclude that ensemble forecasts lead to a better performance than deterministic ones. This investigation takes one step further by not only comparing ensemble and deterministic forecasts to observed values, but by employing the forecasts in a stochastic decision-making assistance tool for hydroelectricity production, during a flood event on the Gatineau River in Canada. This allows the comparison between different types of forecasts according to their value in terms of energy, spillage and storage in a reservoir. The motivation for this is to adopt the point of view of an end-user, here a hydroelectricity production society. We show that ensemble forecasts exhibit excellent performances when compared to observations and are also satisfying when involved in operation management for electricity production. Further improvement in terms of productivity can be reached through the use of a simple post-processing method.

  14. Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

  15. Model ecosystem approach to estimate community level effects of radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masahiro, Doi; Nobuyuki, Tanaka; Shoichi, Fuma; Nobuyoshi, Ishii; Hiroshi, Takeda; Zenichiro, Kawabata [National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Environmental and Toxicological Sciences Research Group, Chiba (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    Mathematical computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics and dynamic mass budgets of the microbial community realized as a self sustainable aquatic ecological system in the tube. Autotrophic algae, heterotrophic protozoa and sapro-trophic bacteria live symbiotically with inter-species' interactions as predator-prey relationship, competition for the common resource, autolysis of detritus and detritus-grazing food chain, etc. The simulation model is the individual-based parallel model, built in the demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity by dividing the aquatic environment into patches. Validity of the model is checked by the multifaceted data of the microcosm experiments. In the analysis, intrinsic parameters of umbrella endpoints (lethality, morbidity, reproductive growth, mutation) are manipulated at the individual level, and tried to find the population level, community level and ecosystem level disorders of ecologically crucial parameters (e.g. intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, variation, etc.) that related to the probability of population extinction. (author)

  16. Model ecosystem approach to estimate community level effects of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masahiro, Doi; Nobuyuki, Tanaka; Shoichi, Fuma; Nobuyoshi, Ishii; Hiroshi, Takeda; Zenichiro, Kawabata

    2004-01-01

    Mathematical computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics and dynamic mass budgets of the microbial community realized as a self sustainable aquatic ecological system in the tube. Autotrophic algae, heterotrophic protozoa and sapro-trophic bacteria live symbiotically with inter-species' interactions as predator-prey relationship, competition for the common resource, autolysis of detritus and detritus-grazing food chain, etc. The simulation model is the individual-based parallel model, built in the demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity by dividing the aquatic environment into patches. Validity of the model is checked by the multifaceted data of the microcosm experiments. In the analysis, intrinsic parameters of umbrella endpoints (lethality, morbidity, reproductive growth, mutation) are manipulated at the individual level, and tried to find the population level, community level and ecosystem level disorders of ecologically crucial parameters (e.g. intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, variation, etc.) that related to the probability of population extinction. (author)

  17. Three level constraints on conformal field theories and string models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewellen, D.C.

    1989-05-01

    Simple tree level constraints for conformal field theories which follow from the requirement of crossing symmetry of four-point amplitudes are presented, and their utility for probing general properties of string models is briefly illustrated and discussed. 9 refs

  18. A new level set model for multimaterial flows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Starinshak, David P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Karni, Smadar [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Mathematics; Roe, Philip L. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of AerospaceEngineering

    2014-01-08

    We present a new level set model for representing multimaterial flows in multiple space dimensions. Instead of associating a level set function with a specific fluid material, the function is associated with a pair of materials and the interface that separates them. A voting algorithm collects sign information from all level sets and determines material designations. M(M ₋1)/2 level set functions might be needed to represent a general M-material configuration; problems of practical interest use far fewer functions, since not all pairs of materials share an interface. The new model is less prone to producing indeterminate material states, i.e. regions claimed by more than one material (overlaps) or no material at all (vacuums). It outperforms existing material-based level set models without the need for reinitialization schemes, thereby avoiding additional computational costs and preventing excessive numerical diffusion.

  19. Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    This paper introduces regime switching volatility into level- ARCH models for the short rates of the US, the UK, and Germany. Once regime switching and level effects are included there are no gains from including ARCH effects. It is of secondary importance exactly how the regime switching is spec...

  20. Using of Structural Equation Modeling Techniques in Cognitive Levels Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalija Curkovic

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available When constructing knowledge tests, cognitive level is usually one of the dimensions comprising the test specifications with each item assigned to measure a particular level. Recently used taxonomies of the cognitive levels most often represent some modification of the original Bloom’s taxonomy. There are many concerns in current literature about existence of predefined cognitive levels. The aim of this article is to investigate can structural equation modeling techniques confirm existence of different cognitive levels. For the purpose of the research, a Croatian final high-school Mathematics exam was used (N = 9626. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural regression modeling were used to test three different models. Structural equation modeling techniques did not support existence of different cognitive levels in this case. There is more than one possible explanation for that finding. Some other techniques that take into account nonlinear behaviour of the items as well as qualitative techniques might be more useful for the purpose of the cognitive levels validation. Furthermore, it seems that cognitive levels were not efficient descriptors of the items and so improvements are needed in describing the cognitive skills measured by items.

  1. Predictive modelling of noise level generated during sawing of rocks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents an experimental and statistical study on noise level generated during of rock sawing by circular diamond sawblades. Influence of the operating variables and rock properties on the noise level are investigated and analysed. Statistical analyses are then employed and models are built for the prediction of ...

  2. A Compositional Knowledge Level Process Model of Requirements Engineering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herlea, D.E.; Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.; Wijngaards, W.C.A.

    2002-01-01

    In current literature few detailed process models for Requirements Engineering are presented: usually high-level activities are distinguished, without a more precise specification of each activity. In this paper the process of Requirements Engineering has been analyzed using knowledge-level

  3. Intruder level and deformation in SD-pair shell model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo Yan'an; Ning Pingzhi; Pan Feng

    2004-01-01

    The influence of intruder level on nuclear deformation is studied within the framework of the nucleon-pair shell model truncated to an SD-pair subspace. The results suggest that the intruder level has a tendency to reduce the deformation and plays an important role in determining the onset of rotational behavior. (authors)

  4. Requirements for High Level Models Supporting Design Space Exploration in Model-based Systems Engineering

    OpenAIRE

    Haveman, Steven P.; Bonnema, G. Maarten

    2013-01-01

    Most formal models are used in detailed design and focus on a single domain. Few effective approaches exist that can effectively tie these lower level models to a high level system model during design space exploration. This complicates the validation of high level system requirements during detailed design. In this paper, we define requirements for a high level model that is firstly driven by key systems engineering challenges present in industry and secondly connects to several formal and d...

  5. Combining SKU-level sales forecasts from models and experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Legerstee (Rianne)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractWe study the performance of SKU-level sales forecasts which linearly combine statistical model forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a large and unique database containing model forecasts for monthly sales of various pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by about fifty experts, we

  6. Aspect-Oriented Model Development at Different Levels of Abstraction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alférez, Mauricio; Amálio, Nuno; Ciraci, S.; Fleurey, Franck; Kienzle, Jörg; Klein, Jacques; Kramer, Max; Mosser, Sebastien; Mussbacher, Gunter; Roubtsova, Ella; Zhang, Gefei; France, Robert B.; Kuester, Jochen M.; Bordbar, Behzad; Paige, Richard F.

    2011-01-01

    The last decade has seen the development of diverse aspect- oriented modeling (AOM) approaches. This paper presents eight different AOM approaches that produce models at different level of abstraction. The approaches are different with respect to the phases of the development lifecycle they target,

  7. Requirements for high level models supporting design space exploration in model-based systems engineering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haveman, Steven; Bonnema, Gerrit Maarten

    2013-01-01

    Most formal models are used in detailed design and focus on a single domain. Few effective approaches exist that can effectively tie these lower level models to a high level system model during design space exploration. This complicates the validation of high level system requirements during

  8. System-level modeling of acetone-butanol-ethanol fermentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chen; Seo, Seung-Oh; Lu, Ting

    2016-05-01

    Acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) fermentation is a metabolic process of clostridia that produces bio-based solvents including butanol. It is enabled by an underlying metabolic reaction network and modulated by cellular gene regulation and environmental cues. Mathematical modeling has served as a valuable strategy to facilitate the understanding, characterization and optimization of this process. In this review, we highlight recent advances in system-level, quantitative modeling of ABE fermentation. We begin with an overview of integrative processes underlying the fermentation. Next we survey modeling efforts including early simple models, models with a systematic metabolic description, and those incorporating metabolism through simple gene regulation. Particular focus is given to a recent system-level model that integrates the metabolic reactions, gene regulation and environmental cues. We conclude by discussing the remaining challenges and future directions towards predictive understanding of ABE fermentation. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Multipurpose optimization models for high level waste vitrification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoza, M.

    1994-08-01

    Optimal Waste Loading (OWL) models have been developed as multipurpose tools for high-level waste studies for the Tank Waste Remediation Program at Hanford. Using nonlinear programming techniques, these models maximize the waste loading of the vitrified waste and optimize the glass formers composition such that the glass produced has the appropriate properties within the melter, and the resultant vitrified waste form meets the requirements for disposal. The OWL model can be used for a single waste stream or for blended streams. The models can determine optimal continuous blends or optimal discrete blends of a number of different wastes. The OWL models have been used to identify the most restrictive constraints, to evaluate prospective waste pretreatment methods, to formulate and evaluate blending strategies, and to determine the impacts of variability in the wastes. The OWL models will be used to aid in the design of frits and the maximize the waste in the glass for High-Level Waste (HLW) vitrification

  10. Theoretical models for the muon spectrum at sea level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Monem, M.S.; Benbrook, J.R.; Osborne, A.R.; Sheldon, W.R.

    1975-01-01

    The absolute vertical cosmic ray muon spectrum is investigated theoretically. Models of high energy interactions (namely, Maeda-Cantrell (MC), Constant Energy (CE), Cocconi-Koester-Perkins (CKP) and Scaling Models) are used to calculate the spectrum of cosmic ray muons at sea level. A comparison is made between the measured spectrum and that predicted from each of the four theoretical models. It is concluded that the recently available measured muon differential intensities agree with the scaling model for energies less than 100 GeV and with the CKP model for energies greater than 200 GeV. The measured differential intensities (Abdel-Monem et al.) agree with scaling. (orig.) [de

  11. Aeon: Synthesizing Scheduling Algorithms from High-Level Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monette, Jean-Noël; Deville, Yves; van Hentenryck, Pascal

    This paper describes the aeon system whose aim is to synthesize scheduling algorithms from high-level models. A eon, which is entirely written in comet, receives as input a high-level model for a scheduling application which is then analyzed to generate a dedicated scheduling algorithm exploiting the structure of the model. A eon provides a variety of synthesizers for generating complete or heuristic algorithms. Moreover, synthesizers are compositional, making it possible to generate complex hybrid algorithms naturally. Preliminary experimental results indicate that this approach may be competitive with state-of-the-art search algorithms.

  12. QUALITY IMPROVEMENT MODEL AT THE MANUFACTURING PROCESS PREPARATION LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dusko Pavletic

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper expresses base for an operational quality improvement model at the manufacturing process preparation level. A numerous appropriate related quality assurance and improvement methods and tools are identified. Main manufacturing process principles are investigated in order to scrutinize one general model of manufacturing process and to define a manufacturing process preparation level. Development and introduction of the operational quality improvement model is based on a research conducted and results of methods and tools application possibilities in real manufacturing processes shipbuilding and automotive industry. Basic model structure is described and presented by appropriate general algorithm. Operational quality improvement model developed lays down main guidelines for practical and systematic application of quality improvements methods and tools.

  13. Nonlinear Stochastic Models for Water Level Dynamics in Closed Lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Mishchenko, A.S.; Zelikin, M.I.; Zelikina, L.F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents the results of investigation of nonlinear mathematical models of the behavior of closed lakes using the example of the Caspian Sea. Forecasting the level of the Caspian Sea is crucial both for the economy of the region and for the region's environment. The Caspian Sea is a closed reservoir; it is well known that its level changes considerably due to a variety of factors including global climate change. A series of forecasts exists based on different methods and taking...

  14. Unified model of nuclear mass and level density formulas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Hisashi

    2001-01-01

    The objective of present work is to obtain a unified description of nuclear shell, pairing and deformation effects for both ground state masses and level densities, and to find a new set of parameter systematics for both the mass and the level density formulas on the basis of a model for new single-particle state densities. In this model, an analytical expression is adopted for the anisotropic harmonic oscillator spectra, but the shell-pairing correlation are introduced in a new way. (author)

  15. Study on high-level waste geological disposal metadata model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Xiaobin; Wang Changhong; Zhu Hehua; Li Xiaojun

    2008-01-01

    This paper expatiated the concept of metadata and its researches within china and abroad, then explain why start the study on the metadata model of high-level nuclear waste deep geological disposal project. As reference to GML, the author first set up DML under the framework of digital underground space engineering. Based on DML, a standardized metadata employed in high-level nuclear waste deep geological disposal project is presented. Then, a Metadata Model with the utilization of internet is put forward. With the standardized data and CSW services, this model may solve the problem in the data sharing and exchanging of different data form A metadata editor is build up in order to search and maintain metadata based on this model. (authors)

  16. Modelling Client Satisfaction Levels: The Impact of Contractor Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robby Soetanto

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The performance of contractors is known to be a key determinant of client satisfaction.Here, using factor analysis, clients’ satisfaction is defined in several dimensions. Based onclients’ assessment of contractor performance, a number of satisfaction models developedusing the multiple regression (MR technique are presented. The models identify arange of variables encompassing contractor performance, project performance and respondent(i.e. client attributes as useful predictors of satisfaction levels. Contractor performanceattributes were found to be of utmost importance indicating that clientsatisfaction levels are mainly dependent on the performance of the contractor. Furthermore,findings suggest that subjectivity is to some extent prevalent in clients’ performanceassessment. The models demonstrate accurate and reliable predictive power as confirmedby validation tests. Contractors could use the models to help improve their performanceleading to more satisfied clients. This would also promote the development ofharmonious working relationships within the construction project coalition.

  17. Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between

  18. Evaluating the AS-level Internet models: beyond topological characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Zheng-Ping

    2012-01-01

    A surge number of models has been proposed to model the Internet in the past decades. However, the issue on which models are better to model the Internet has still remained a problem. By analysing the evolving dynamics of the Internet, we suggest that at the autonomous system (AS) level, a suitable Internet model, should at least be heterogeneous and have a linearly growing mechanism. More importantly, we show that the roles of topological characteristics in evaluating and differentiating Internet models are apparently over-estimated from an engineering perspective. Also, we find that an assortative network is not necessarily more robust than a disassortative network and that a smaller average shortest path length does not necessarily mean a higher robustness, which is different from the previous observations. Our analytic results are helpful not only for the Internet, but also for other general complex networks. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  19. A High Level Model of a Conscious Embodied Agent

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Wiedermann, Jiří

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 3 (2010), s. 62-78 ISSN 1942-9045 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP202/10/1333 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : embodied agent * internal world models * higher cognitive function Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science http://www.igi-global.com/article/high-level-model-conscious-embodied/46147

  20. A new level set model for cell image segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jing-Feng; Hou, Kai; Bao, Shang-Lian; Chen, Chun

    2011-02-01

    In this paper we first determine three phases of cell images: background, cytoplasm and nucleolus according to the general physical characteristics of cell images, and then develop a variational model, based on these characteristics, to segment nucleolus and cytoplasm from their relatively complicated backgrounds. In the meantime, the preprocessing obtained information of cell images using the OTSU algorithm is used to initialize the level set function in the model, which can speed up the segmentation and present satisfactory results in cell image processing.

  1. Vehicle logo recognition using multi-level fusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ming, Wei; Xiao, Jianli

    2018-04-01

    Vehicle logo recognition plays an important role in manufacturer identification and vehicle recognition. This paper proposes a new vehicle logo recognition algorithm. It has a hierarchical framework, which consists of two fusion levels. At the first level, a feature fusion model is employed to map the original features to a higher dimension feature space. In this space, the vehicle logos become more recognizable. At the second level, a weighted voting strategy is proposed to promote the accuracy and the robustness of the recognition results. To evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm, extensive experiments are performed, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can achieve high recognition accuracy and work robustly.

  2. Moments Method for Shell-Model Level Density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zelevinsky, V; Horoi, M; Sen'kov, R A

    2016-01-01

    The modern form of the Moments Method applied to the calculation of the nuclear shell-model level density is explained and examples of the method at work are given. The calculated level density practically exactly coincides with the result of full diagonalization when the latter is feasible. The method provides the pure level density for given spin and parity with spurious center-of-mass excitations subtracted. The presence and interplay of all correlations leads to the results different from those obtained by the mean-field combinatorics. (paper)

  3. GEOMETRIC MODELLING OF TREE ROOTS WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF DETAIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. I. Guerrero Iñiguez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a geometric approach for modelling tree roots with different Levels of Detail, suitable for analysis of the tree anchoring, potentially occupied underground space, interaction with urban elements and damage produced and taken in the built-in environment. Three types of tree roots are considered to cover several species: tap root, heart shaped root and lateral roots. Shrubs and smaller plants are not considered, however, a similar approach can be considered if the information is available for individual species. The geometrical approach considers the difficulties of modelling the actual roots, which are dynamic and almost opaque to direct observation, proposing generalized versions. For each type of root, different geometric models are considered to capture the overall shape of the root, a simplified block model, and a planar or surface projected version. Lower detail versions are considered as compatibility version for 2D systems while higher detail models are suitable for 3D analysis and visualization. The proposed levels of detail are matched with CityGML Levels of Detail, enabling both analysis and aesthetic views for urban modelling.

  4. Geometric Modelling of Tree Roots with Different Levels of Detail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero Iñiguez, J. I.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a geometric approach for modelling tree roots with different Levels of Detail, suitable for analysis of the tree anchoring, potentially occupied underground space, interaction with urban elements and damage produced and taken in the built-in environment. Three types of tree roots are considered to cover several species: tap root, heart shaped root and lateral roots. Shrubs and smaller plants are not considered, however, a similar approach can be considered if the information is available for individual species. The geometrical approach considers the difficulties of modelling the actual roots, which are dynamic and almost opaque to direct observation, proposing generalized versions. For each type of root, different geometric models are considered to capture the overall shape of the root, a simplified block model, and a planar or surface projected version. Lower detail versions are considered as compatibility version for 2D systems while higher detail models are suitable for 3D analysis and visualization. The proposed levels of detail are matched with CityGML Levels of Detail, enabling both analysis and aesthetic views for urban modelling.

  5. Modeling and simulation of the agricultural sprayer boom leveling system

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Jian

    2011-01-01

    According to the agricultural precision requirements, the distance from sprayer nozzles to the corps should be kept between 50 cm to 70 cm. The sprayer boom also needs to be kept parallel to the field during the application process. Thus we can guarantee the quality of the chemical droplets distribution on the crops. In this paper we design a sprayer boom leveling system for agricultural sprayer vehicles combined with a four-rod linkage self-leveling suspension and electro-hydraulic auto-leveling system. The dynamic analysis shows that the suspension can realize an excellent self-leveling in a comparative small inclination range. In addition we build compensation controller for the electro-hydraulic system based on the mathematical model. With simulations we can optimize the performance of this controller to make sure a fast leveling response to the inclined sprayer boom. © 2011 IEEE.

  6. Multi-level decision making models, methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya

    2015-01-01

    This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.  

  7. Groundwater modelling for fractured and porous media: HYDROCOIN Level 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noy, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    The report describes work carried out as part of the 'Hydrocoin' project to verify some of the models used by the British Geological Survey on its radioactive waste disposal programme. The author's work on Hydrocoin Level 1 concerned groundwater modelling for fractured and porous media. The overall conclusions arising from the work were: a) pressure fields in saturated media can be reliably calculated by existing programmes, b) three techniques for deriving the flow fields are described, and c) severe practical limitations exist as to the ability of current programs to model variably saturated conditions over moderate distances. (U.K.)

  8. Statistical models to predict flows at monthly level in Salvajina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, Harold O

    1994-01-01

    It thinks about and models of lineal regression evaluate at monthly level that they allow to predict flows in Salvajina, with base in predictions variable, like the difference of pressure between Darwin and Tahiti, precipitation in Piendamo Cauca), temperature in Port Chicama (Peru) and pressure in Tahiti

  9. Level of detail in 3D city models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biljecki, F.

    2017-01-01

    The concept of level of detail (LOD) describes the content of 3D city models and it plays an essential role during their life cycle. On one hand it comes akin to the concepts of scale in cartography and LOD in computer graphics, on the other hand it is a standalone concept that requires attention.

  10. Lake St. Clair: Storm Wave and Water Level Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    R. A. Luettich, C. Dawson, V. J. Cardone , A. T. Cox, M. D. Powell, H. J. Westerink, and H. J. Roberts. 2010. A high resolution coupled riverine flow...Storm Wave and Water Level Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Tyler J. Hesser

  11. Quantum Zeno effect for N-level Friedrichs model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antoniou, I.; Karpov, E.; Pronko, G.; Yarevskij, E.

    2003-01-01

    We study the short-time behaviour of the survival probability in the framework of the N-level Friedrichs model. We show that depending on the initial conditions the decay can be considerably slowed down or even stopped. By choosing proper parameters of the system, the Zeno time can also be considerably extended

  12. Semiparametric copula models for biometric score level fusion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Susyanto, N.

    2016-01-01

    In biometric recognition, biometric samples (images of faces, fingerprints, voices, gaits, etc.) of people are compared and matchers (classifiers) indicate the level of similarity between any pair of samples by a score. If we model the joint distribution of all scores by a (semiparametric) Gaussian

  13. Levels of Interaction Provided by Online Distance Education Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alhih, Mohammed; Ossiannilsson, Ebba; Berigel, Muhammet

    2017-01-01

    Interaction plays a significant role to foster usability and quality in online education. It is one of the quality standard to reveal the evidence of practice in online distance education models. This research study aims to evaluate levels of interaction in the practices of distance education centres. It is aimed to provide online distance…

  14. Three essays on multi-level optimization models and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahdar, Mohammad

    The general form of a multi-level mathematical programming problem is a set of nested optimization problems, in which each level controls a series of decision variables independently. However, the value of decision variables may also impact the objective function of other levels. A two-level model is called a bilevel model and can be considered as a Stackelberg game with a leader and a follower. The leader anticipates the response of the follower and optimizes its objective function, and then the follower reacts to the leader's action. The multi-level decision-making model has many real-world applications such as government decisions, energy policies, market economy, network design, etc. However, there is a lack of capable algorithms to solve medium and large scale these types of problems. The dissertation is devoted to both theoretical research and applications of multi-level mathematical programming models, which consists of three parts, each in a paper format. The first part studies the renewable energy portfolio under two major renewable energy policies. The potential competition for biomass for the growth of the renewable energy portfolio in the United States and other interactions between two policies over the next twenty years are investigated. This problem mainly has two levels of decision makers: the government/policy makers and biofuel producers/electricity generators/farmers. We focus on the lower-level problem to predict the amount of capacity expansions, fuel production, and power generation. In the second part, we address uncertainty over demand and lead time in a multi-stage mathematical programming problem. We propose a two-stage tri-level optimization model in the concept of rolling horizon approach to reducing the dimensionality of the multi-stage problem. In the third part of the dissertation, we introduce a new branch and bound algorithm to solve bilevel linear programming problems. The total time is reduced by solving a smaller relaxation

  15. Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Balali

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.

  16. Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model – A User’s Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrow, William R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Shehabi, Arman [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah Josephine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model is a cost-performance techno-economic model that estimates total large-scale manufacturing costs for necessary to produce a given product. It is designed to provide production cost estimates for technology researchers to help guide technology research and development towards an eventual cost-effective product. The model presented in this user’s guide is generic and can be tailored to the manufacturing of any product, including the generation of electricity (as a product). This flexibility, however, requires the user to develop the processes and process efficiencies that represents a full-scale manufacturing facility. The generic model is comprised of several modules that estimate variable costs (material, labor, and operating), fixed costs (capital & maintenance), financing structures (debt and equity financing), and tax implications (taxable income after equipment and building depreciation, debt interest payments, and expenses) of a notional manufacturing plant. A cash-flow method is used to estimate a selling price necessary for the manufacturing plant to recover its total cost of production. A levelized unit sales price ($ per unit of product) is determined by dividing the net-present value of the manufacturing plant’s expenses ($) by the net present value of its product output. A user defined production schedule drives the cash-flow method that determines the levelized unit price. In addition, an analyst can increase the levelized unit price to include a gross profit margin to estimate a product sales price. This model allows an analyst to understand the effect that any input variables could have on the cost of manufacturing a product. In addition, the tool is able to perform sensitivity analysis, which can be used to identify the key variables and assumptions that have the greatest influence on the levelized costs. This component is intended to help technology researchers focus their research attention on tasks

  17. Memory Effects in the Two-Level Model for Glasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquino, Gerardo; Allahverdyan, Armen; Nieuwenhuizen, Theo M.

    2008-07-01

    We study an ensemble of two-level systems interacting with a thermal bath. This is a well-known model for glasses. The origin of memory effects in this model is a quasistationary but nonequilibrium state of a single two-level system, which is realized due to a finite-rate cooling and slow thermally activated relaxation. We show that single-particle memory effects, such as negativity of the specific heat under reheating, vanish for a sufficiently disordered ensemble. In contrast, a disordered ensemble displays a collective memory effect [similar to the Kovacs effect], where nonequilibrium features of the ensemble are monitored via a macroscopic observable. An experimental realization of the effect can be used to further assess the consistency of the model.

  18. The level density parameters for fermi gas model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuang Youxiang; Wang Cuilan; Zhou Chunmei; Su Zongdi

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear level densities are crucial ingredient in the statistical models, for instance, in the calculations of the widths, cross sections, emitted particle spectra, etc. for various reaction channels. In this work 667 sets of more reliable and new experimental data are adopted, which include average level spacing D D , radiative capture width Γ γ 0 at neutron binding energy and cumulative level number N 0 at the low excitation energy. They are published during 1973 to 1983. Based on the parameters given by Gilbert-Cameon and Cook the physical quantities mentioned above are calculated. The calculated results have the deviation obviously from experimental values. In order to improve the fitting, the parameters in the G-C formula are adjusted and new set of level density parameters is obsained. The parameters is this work are more suitable to fit new measurements

  19. Modeling the IPv6 internet AS-level topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Bo; Liu, Lian-dong; Guo, Xiao-chen; Xu, Ke

    2009-02-01

    To measure the IPv6 internet AS-level topology, a network topology discovery system, called Dolphin, was developed. By comparing the measurement result of Dolphin with that of CAIDA’s Scamper, it was found that the IPv6 Internet at AS level, similar to other complex networks, is also scale-free but the exponent of its degree distribution is 1.2, which is much smaller than that of the IPv4 Internet and most other scale-free networks. In order to explain this feature of IPv6 Internet we argue that the degree exponent is a measure of uniformity of the degree distribution. Then, for the purpose of modeling the networks, we propose a new model based on the two major factors affecting the exponent of the EBA model. It breaks the lower bound of degree exponent which is 2 for most models. To verify the validity of this model, both theoretical and experimental analyses have been carried out. Finally, we demonstrate how this model can be successfully used to reproduce the topology of the IPv6 Internet.

  20. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleisher, David H; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto; Alva, Ashok; Asseng, Senthold; Barreda, Carolina; Bindi, Marco; Boote, Kenneth J; Ferrise, Roberto; Franke, Angelinus C; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Merante, Paolo; Nendel, Claas; Olesen, Jorgen E; Parker, Phillip S; Raes, Dirk; Raymundo, Rubi; Ruane, Alex C; Stockle, Claudio; Supit, Iwan; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wolf, Joost; Woli, Prem

    2017-03-01

    A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be

  1. IC modelling in the IRSN EPR level 1 PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delache, J.

    2012-01-01

    Today in France, an EPR (European Pressurized Water Reactor) Unit is under construction at the Flamanville site. The creation authorization was granted in April 2007 and the plant commissioning is planned for 2012. The plant operator (EDF) provided for the construction license several PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) studies. IRSN, as TSO (Technical Safety Organisation), wishes to dispose of the appropriate knowledge and tools for the independent verification of the operator studies and so developed its own model of PSA level 1. The goal is not to rebuild the plant operator PSA (with a full scope...) but to dispose of a simplified model able to clearly point out specific important issues. In the IRSN model a particular effort has recently been done on the Digital IC modelling. The IC (Instrumentation and Control) is modelled in the IRSN EPR PSA by using Fault Trees. Instead, EDF EPR PSA applies the COMPACT model to simplify the command and instrumentation logics. The IRSN model is more detailed in order to be more accurate in the global analysis of the Digital IC. For instance the communication ways between automates are considered as well as the failure of support systems. The model is still under development mainly in order to define the CCF (Common Cause Failure) which may be considered. (authors)

  2. Prediction of dimethyl disulfide levels from biosolids using statistical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Steven A; Vilalai, Sirapong; Arispe, Susanna; Kim, Hyunook; McConnell, Laura L; Torrents, Alba; Peot, Christopher; Ramirez, Mark

    2005-01-01

    Two statistical models were used to predict the concentration of dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) released from biosolids produced by an advanced wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) located in Washington, DC, USA. The plant concentrates sludge from primary sedimentation basins in gravity thickeners (GT) and sludge from secondary sedimentation basins in dissolved air flotation (DAF) thickeners. The thickened sludge is pumped into blending tanks and then fed into centrifuges for dewatering. The dewatered sludge is then conditioned with lime before trucking out from the plant. DMDS, along with other volatile sulfur and nitrogen-containing chemicals, is known to contribute to biosolids odors. These models identified oxidation/reduction potential (ORP) values of a GT and DAF, the amount of sludge dewatered by centrifuges, and the blend ratio between GT thickened sludge and DAF thickened sludge in blending tanks as control variables. The accuracy of the developed regression models was evaluated by checking the adjusted R2 of the regression as well as the signs of coefficients associated with each variable. In general, both models explained observed DMDS levels in sludge headspace samples. The adjusted R2 value of the regression models 1 and 2 were 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. Coefficients for each regression model also had the correct sign. Using the developed models, plant operators can adjust the controllable variables to proactively decrease this odorant. Therefore, these models are a useful tool in biosolids management at WWTPs.

  3. Model answers in pure mathematics for a-level students

    CERN Document Server

    Pratt, GA; Schofield, C W

    1967-01-01

    Model Answers in Pure Mathematics for A-Level Students provides a set of solutions that indicate what is required and expected in an Advanced Level examination in Pure Mathematics. This book serves as a guide to the length of answer required, layout of the solution, and methods of selecting the best approach to any particular type of math problem. This compilation intends to supplement, not replace, the normal textbook and provides a varied selection of questions for practice in addition to the worked solutions. The subjects covered in this text include algebra, trigonometry, coordinate geomet

  4. Spatial modeling for groundwater arsenic levels in North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dohyeong; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Tootoo, Joshua; Bradley, Phil; Gelfand, Alan E

    2011-06-01

    To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area.

  5. Spatial Modeling for Groundwater Arsenic Levels in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dohyeong; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Tootoo, Joshua; Bradley, Phil; Gelfand, Alan E.

    2013-01-01

    To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area. PMID:21528844

  6. Spatial modeling for groundwater arsenic levels in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, D.; Miranda, M.L.; Tootoo, J.; Bradley, P.; Gelfand, A.E.

    2011-01-01

    To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area. ?? 2011 American Chemical Society.

  7. Mathematical modeling in low-level radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, D.S.; Yeh, G.T.

    1978-01-01

    Mathematical modeling of moisture transport through near-surface infiltration reduction seals above low-level waste trenches may be used to aid in the evaluation of engineering design alternatives. The infiltration of rainwater must be reduced for successful radionuclide containment within a typical shallow trench. Clay admixtures offer not only long-term integrity, but the necessary durability. The use of models is exemplified in the calculation of spatial moisture content and velocity distributions in the vicinity of a near-surface seal

  8. Model shows future cut in U.S. ozone levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    A joint U.S. auto-oil industry research program says modeling shows that changing gasoline composition can reduce ozone levels for Los Angeles in 2010 and for New York City and Dallas-Fort Worth in 2005. The air quality modeling was based on vehicle emissions research data released late last year (OGJ, Dec. 24, 1990, p. 20). The effort is sponsored by the big three auto manufacturers and 14 oil companies. Sponsors the cars and small trucks account for about one third of ozone generated in the three cities studied but by 2005-10 will account for only 5-9%

  9. A new level set model for cell image segmentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Jing-Feng; Chen Chun; Hou Kai; Bao Shang-Lian

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we first determine three phases of cell images: background, cytoplasm and nucleolus according to the general physical characteristics of cell images, and then develop a variational model, based on these characteristics, to segment nucleolus and cytoplasm from their relatively complicated backgrounds. In the meantime, the preprocessing obtained information of cell images using the OTSU algorithm is used to initialize the level set function in the model, which can speed up the segmentation and present satisfactory results in cell image processing. (cross-disciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  10. Molecular level in silico studies for oncology. Direct models review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Psakhie, S. G.; Tsukanov, A. A.

    2017-09-01

    The combination of therapy and diagnostics in one process "theranostics" is a trend in a modern medicine, especially in oncology. Such an approach requires development and usage of multifunctional hybrid nanoparticles with a hierarchical structure. Numerical methods and mathematical models play a significant role in the design of the hierarchical nanoparticles and allow looking inside the nanoscale mechanisms of agent-cell interactions. The current position of in silico approach in biomedicine and oncology is discussed. The review of the molecular level in silico studies in oncology, which are using the direct models, is presented.

  11. High-level PC-based laser system modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Michael S.

    1991-05-01

    Since the inception of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) there have been a multitude of comparison studies done in an attempt to evaluate the effectiveness and relative sizes of complementary, and sometimes competitive, laser weapon systems. It became more and more apparent that what the systems analyst needed was not only a fast, but a cost effective way to perform high-level trade studies. In the present investigation, a general procedure is presented for the development of PC-based algorithmic systems models for laser systems. This procedure points out all of the major issues that should be addressed in the design and development of such a model. Issues addressed include defining the problem to be modeled, defining a strategy for development, and finally, effective use of the model once developed. Being a general procedure, it will allow a systems analyst to develop a model to meet specific needs. To illustrate this method of model development, a description of the Strategic Defense Simulation - Design To (SDS-DT) model developed and used by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) is presented. SDS-DT is a menu-driven, fast executing, PC-based program that can be used to either calculate performance, weight, volume, and cost values for a particular design or, alternatively, to run parametrics on particular system parameters to perhaps optimize a design.

  12. Stochastic Model for Population Exposed to Low Level Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkle, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper the stochastic model for population size, i.e. calculation of the number of deaths due to lethal stochastic health effects caused by the exposure to low level ionising radiation is presented. The model is defined for subpopulation with parameter (a, b) being fixed. Using the corresponding density function, it is possible to find all the quantities of interest by averaging over whole possible values for (a, l). All processes ar at first defined for one radionuclide, exposure pathway and the health effect under consideration. The results obtained in this paper are the basic quantities in the risk assessment, loss of life expectancy etc. The results presented in this paper are also applicable to the other sources of low level risk, not only the radiation risk

  13. Connectionist Models and Parallelism in High Level Vision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-01-01

    GRANT NUMBER(s) Jerome A. Feldman N00014-82-K-0193 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENt. PROJECT, TASK Computer Science...Connectionist Models 2.1 Background and Overviev % Computer science is just beginning to look seriously at parallel computation : it may turn out that...the chair. The program includes intermediate level networks that compute more complex joints and ones that compute parallelograms in the image. These

  14. Multi-Level Marketing as a business model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Gregor

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Multi Level Marketing is a very popular business model in the Western countries. It is a kind of hybrid of the method of distribution of goods and the method of building a sales network. It is one of the safest (carries a very low risk ways of conducting a business activity. The knowledge about functioning of this business model, both among theoreticians (scanty literature on the subject and practitioners, is still insufficient in Poland. Thus, the presented paper has been prepared as — in the Authors' opinion — it, at least infinitesimally, bridges the gap in the recognition of Multi Level Marketing issues. The aim of the study was, first of all, to describe Multi Level Marketing, to indicate practical benefits of this business model as well as to present basic systems of calculating a commission, which are used in marketing plans of companies. The discussion was based on the study of literature and the knowledge gained in the course of free-form interviews with the leaders of the sector.

  15. Multi-level and hybrid modelling approaches for systems biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardini, R; Politano, G; Benso, A; Di Carlo, S

    2017-01-01

    During the last decades, high-throughput techniques allowed for the extraction of a huge amount of data from biological systems, unveiling more of their underling complexity. Biological systems encompass a wide range of space and time scales, functioning according to flexible hierarchies of mechanisms making an intertwined and dynamic interplay of regulations. This becomes particularly evident in processes such as ontogenesis, where regulative assets change according to process context and timing, making structural phenotype and architectural complexities emerge from a single cell, through local interactions. The information collected from biological systems are naturally organized according to the functional levels composing the system itself. In systems biology, biological information often comes from overlapping but different scientific domains, each one having its own way of representing phenomena under study. That is, the different parts of the system to be modelled may be described with different formalisms. For a model to have improved accuracy and capability for making a good knowledge base, it is good to comprise different system levels, suitably handling the relative formalisms. Models which are both multi-level and hybrid satisfy both these requirements, making a very useful tool in computational systems biology. This paper reviews some of the main contributions in this field.

  16. Device-Level Models Using Multi-Valley Effective Mass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baczewski, Andrew D.; Frees, Adam; Gamble, John King; Gao, Xujiao; Jacobson, N. Tobias; Mitchell, John A.; Montaño, Inès; Muller, Richard P.; Nielsen, Erik

    2015-03-01

    Continued progress in quantum electronics depends critically on the availability of robust device-level modeling tools that capture a wide range of physics and effective mass theory (EMT) is one means of building such models. Recent developments in multi-valley EMT show quantitative agreement with more detailed atomistic tight-binding calculations of phosphorus donors in silicon (Gamble, et. al., arXiv:1408.3159). Leveraging existing PDE solvers, we are developing a framework in which this multi-valley EMT is coupled to an integrated device-level description of several experimentally active qubit technologies. Device-level simulations of quantum operations will be discussed, as well as the extraction of process matrices at this level of theory. The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the Sandia National Laboratories Truman Fellowship Program, which is funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  17. A mathematical model of the shore level displacement in Fennoscandia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paasse, T.

    1996-12-01

    The shore level displacement in Fennoscandia (Scandinavia and Finland) is mainly due to two cooperative vertical movements, the glacio-isostatic uplift and the eustatic sea level rise. The course of the glacio-isostatic uplift has recently been made discernible according to an investigation of the lake tilting phenomenon. This new information has made it possible to start an iteration process for detailed estimations of the uplift and the rise using empirical data of the shore level displacement. Arctan-functions have proved to be suitable tools for describing the glacio-isostatic uplift. The model indicates that there are two mechanisms involved in the glacio-isostatic uplift, one slow that can be linked to viscous flow, and one fast that might be explained by compression followed by decompression. The future development regarding the glacio-isostatic uplift, the eustasy and the shore level displacement is predicted in Fennoscandia using the results from the modeling. The predictions are based on the assumption that the crustal and eustatic developments will follow the trends that exist today. 124 refs, 98 figs

  18. Using a micro-level model to generate a macro-level model of productive successful aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Jessica K M; Sarkisian, Natalia; Williamson, John B

    2015-02-01

    Aging successfully entails good physical and cognitive health, as well as ongoing participation in social and productive activity. This study hones in on participation in productive activity, a factor that makes an important contribution to successful aging. One conceptual model of productive activity in later life specifies the antecedents and consequences of productivity. This study draws on that micro-level model to develop a corresponding macro-level model and assesses its utility for examining the predictors of and explaining the relationships between one form of productivity (labor force participation rates) and one aspect of well-being (average life expectancy) among males and females. Random effects regression models and path analysis were used to analyze cross-national longitudinal data for 24 high-income Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries at seven time points (1980-2010; 168 observations total). OECD countries with higher labor force participation rates among older workers have higher life expectancies. Labor force participation mediates the effects of gross domestic product per capita on male and female life expectancy, and it mediates the effect of self-employment rate for men, but it acts as a suppressor with regard to the effect of public spending on male and female life expectancy. A well-known micro-level model of productive activity can be fruitfully adapted to account for macro-level cross-national variation in productivity and well-being. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Prediction of South China sea level using seasonal ARIMA models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Flerida Regine; Po, Rodolfo; Montero, Neil; Addawe, Rizavel

    2017-11-01

    Accelerating sea level rise is an indicator of global warming and poses a threat to low-lying places and coastal countries. This study aims to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to the time series obtained from the TOPEX and Jason series of satellite radar altimetries of the South China Sea from the year 2008 to 2015. With altimetric measurements taken in a 10-day repeat cycle, monthly averages of the satellite altimetry measurements were taken to compose the data set used in the study. SARIMA models were then tried and fitted to the time series in order to find the best-fit model. Results show that the SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model best fits the time series and was used to forecast the values for January 2016 to December 2016. The 12-month forecast using SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 shows that the sea level gradually increases from January to September 2016, and decreases until December 2016.

  20. Instruction-level performance modeling and characterization of multimedia applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Y. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Scientific Computing Group; Cameron, K.W. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States). Dept. of Computer Science

    1999-06-01

    One of the challenges for characterizing and modeling realistic multimedia applications is the lack of access to source codes. On-chip performance counters effectively resolve this problem by monitoring run-time behaviors at the instruction-level. This paper presents a novel technique of characterizing and modeling workloads at the instruction level for realistic multimedia applications using hardware performance counters. A variety of instruction counts are collected from some multimedia applications, such as RealPlayer, GSM Vocoder, MPEG encoder/decoder, and speech synthesizer. These instruction counts can be used to form a set of abstract characteristic parameters directly related to a processor`s architectural features. Based on microprocessor architectural constraints and these calculated abstract parameters, the architectural performance bottleneck for a specific application can be estimated. Meanwhile, the bottleneck estimation can provide suggestions about viable architectural/functional improvement for certain workloads. The biggest advantage of this new characterization technique is a better understanding of processor utilization efficiency and architectural bottleneck for each application. This technique also provides predictive insight of future architectural enhancements and their affect on current codes. In this paper the authors also attempt to model architectural effect on processor utilization without memory influence. They derive formulas for calculating CPI{sub 0}, CPI without memory effect, and they quantify utilization of architectural parameters. These equations are architecturally diagnostic and predictive in nature. Results provide promise in code characterization, and empirical/analytical modeling.

  1. Two-level modelling of real estate taxtation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gall, Jaroslav; Stubkjær, Erik

    2006-01-01

    Real estate taxes recurrently attract attention, because they are a source of potentially increased revenue for local and national government. Most experts agree that it is necessary to switch from using normative values for taxation to a market-value-based taxation of real property with computer......-assisted mass valuation, witch benefit from use of value maps. In Czech Republic, efforts have been made to adopt current tax policy goals, but improvements are still needed. The paper aims at supporting the current improvement process towards a market based system. It presents models, which describe aspects...... of the present Czech property tax system. A proposal for the future system focuses on the value map component. The described change depends on political involvement. This political activity is modelled as well. The hypothesis is that the two-level modelling effort enhances the change process by providing...

  2. Level-set techniques for facies identification in reservoir modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Marco A.; McLaughlin, Dennis

    2011-03-01

    In this paper we investigate the application of level-set techniques for facies identification in reservoir models. The identification of facies is a geometrical inverse ill-posed problem that we formulate in terms of shape optimization. The goal is to find a region (a geologic facies) that minimizes the misfit between predicted and measured data from an oil-water reservoir. In order to address the shape optimization problem, we present a novel application of the level-set iterative framework developed by Burger in (2002 Interfaces Free Bound. 5 301-29 2004 Inverse Problems 20 259-82) for inverse obstacle problems. The optimization is constrained by (the reservoir model) a nonlinear large-scale system of PDEs that describes the reservoir dynamics. We reformulate this reservoir model in a weak (integral) form whose shape derivative can be formally computed from standard results of shape calculus. At each iteration of the scheme, the current estimate of the shape derivative is utilized to define a velocity in the level-set equation. The proper selection of this velocity ensures that the new shape decreases the cost functional. We present results of facies identification where the velocity is computed with the gradient-based (GB) approach of Burger (2002) and the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) technique of Burger (2004). While an adjoint formulation allows the straightforward application of the GB approach, the LM technique requires the computation of the large-scale Karush-Kuhn-Tucker system that arises at each iteration of the scheme. We efficiently solve this system by means of the representer method. We present some synthetic experiments to show and compare the capabilities and limitations of the proposed implementations of level-set techniques for the identification of geologic facies.

  3. Level-set techniques for facies identification in reservoir modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iglesias, Marco A; McLaughlin, Dennis

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the application of level-set techniques for facies identification in reservoir models. The identification of facies is a geometrical inverse ill-posed problem that we formulate in terms of shape optimization. The goal is to find a region (a geologic facies) that minimizes the misfit between predicted and measured data from an oil–water reservoir. In order to address the shape optimization problem, we present a novel application of the level-set iterative framework developed by Burger in (2002 Interfaces Free Bound. 5 301–29; 2004 Inverse Problems 20 259–82) for inverse obstacle problems. The optimization is constrained by (the reservoir model) a nonlinear large-scale system of PDEs that describes the reservoir dynamics. We reformulate this reservoir model in a weak (integral) form whose shape derivative can be formally computed from standard results of shape calculus. At each iteration of the scheme, the current estimate of the shape derivative is utilized to define a velocity in the level-set equation. The proper selection of this velocity ensures that the new shape decreases the cost functional. We present results of facies identification where the velocity is computed with the gradient-based (GB) approach of Burger (2002) and the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) technique of Burger (2004). While an adjoint formulation allows the straightforward application of the GB approach, the LM technique requires the computation of the large-scale Karush–Kuhn–Tucker system that arises at each iteration of the scheme. We efficiently solve this system by means of the representer method. We present some synthetic experiments to show and compare the capabilities and limitations of the proposed implementations of level-set techniques for the identification of geologic facies

  4. Core-level satellites and outer core-level multiplet splitting in Mn model compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, A. J.; Reynolds, John G.; Roos, Joseph W.

    2000-01-01

    We report a systematic study of the Mn 2p, 3s, and 3p core-level photoemission and satellite structures for Mn model compounds. Charge transfer from the ligand state to the 3d metal state is observed and is distinguished by prominent shake-up satellites. We also observe that the Mn 3s multiplet splitting becomes smaller as the Mn oxidation state increases, and that 3s-3d electron correlation reduces the branching ratio of the 7 S: 5 S states in the Mn 3s spectra. In addition, as the ligand electronegativity decreases, the spin-state purity is lost in the 3s spectra, as evidenced by peak broadening. Our results are best understood in terms of the configuration-interaction model including intrashell electron correlation, charge transfer, and final-state screening. (c) 2000 American Vacuum Society

  5. An adaptation model for trabecular bone at different mechanical levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lv Linwei

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bone has the ability to adapt to mechanical usage or other biophysical stimuli in terms of its mass and architecture, indicating that a certain mechanism exists for monitoring mechanical usage and controlling the bone's adaptation behaviors. There are four zones describing different bone adaptation behaviors: the disuse, adaptation, overload, and pathologic overload zones. In different zones, the changes of bone mass, as calculated by the difference between the amount of bone formed and what is resorbed, should be different. Methods An adaptation model for the trabecular bone at different mechanical levels was presented in this study based on a number of experimental observations and numerical algorithms in the literature. In the proposed model, the amount of bone formation and the probability of bone remodeling activation were proposed in accordance with the mechanical levels. Seven numerical simulation cases under different mechanical conditions were analyzed as examples by incorporating the adaptation model presented in this paper with the finite element method. Results The proposed bone adaptation model describes the well-known bone adaptation behaviors in different zones. The bone mass and architecture of the bone tissue within the adaptation zone almost remained unchanged. Although the probability of osteoclastic activation is enhanced in the overload zone, the potential of osteoblasts to form bones compensate for the osteoclastic resorption, eventually strengthening the bones. In the disuse zone, the disuse-mode remodeling removes bone tissue in disuse zone. Conclusions The study seeks to provide better understanding of the relationships between bone morphology and the mechanical, as well as biological environments. Furthermore, this paper provides a computational model and methodology for the numerical simulation of changes of bone structural morphology that are caused by changes of mechanical and biological

  6. Development of the Level 1 PSA Model for PGSFR Regulatory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, Hyun Ju; Lee, Yong Suk; Shin, Andong; Suh, Nam Duk

    2014-01-01

    SFR (sodium-cooled fast reactor) is Gen-IV nuclear energy system, which is designed for stability, sustainability and proliferation resistance. KALIMER-600 and PGSFR (Prototype Gen-IV SFR) are under development in Korea with enhanced passive safety concepts, e.g. passive reactor shutdown, passive residual heat removal, and etc. Risk analysis from a regulatory perspective is necessary for regulatory body to support the safety and licensing review of SFR. Safety issues should be identified in the early design phase in order to prevent the unexpected cost increase and the delay of PGSFR licensing schedule. In this respect, the preliminary PSA Model of KALIMER-600 had been developed for regulatory. In this study, the development of PSA Level 1 Model is presented. The important impact factors in the risk analysis for the PGSFR, such as Core Damage Frequency (CDF), have been identified and the related safety insights have been derived. The PSA level 1 model for PGSFR regulatory is developed and the risk analysis is conducted. Regarding CDF, LOISF frequency, uncertainty parameter for passive system CCF, loss of 125V DC control center bus and damper CCF are identified as the important factors. Sensitivity analyses show that the CDF would be differentiated (lowered) according to their values

  7. Salt marsh stability modelled in relation to sea level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartholdy, Jesper; Bartholdy, Anders; Kroon, Aart

    2010-01-01

    thickness. Autocompaction was incorporated in the model, and shown to play a major role for the translation of accretion rates measured as length per unit time to accumulation rates measured as mass per area per unit time. This is important, even for shallow salt marsh deposits for which it is demonstrated...... that mass depth down core can be directly related to the bulk dry density of the surface layer by means of a logarithmic function. The results allow for an evaluation of the use of marker horizons in the topmost layers and show that it is important to know the level of the marker in relation to the salt...... marsh base. In general, deeper located markers will indicate successively smaller accretion rates with the same sediment input. Thus, stability analysis made on the basis of newly established marker horizons will be biased and indicate salt marsh stabilities far above the correct level. Running...

  8. Modeling level structures of odd-odd deformed nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoff, R.W.; Kern, J.; Piepenbring, R.; Boisson, J.P.

    1984-01-01

    A technique for modeling quasiparticle excitation energies and rotational parameters in odd-odd deformed nuclei has been applied to actinide species where new experimental data have been obtained by use of neutron-capture gamma-ray spectroscopy. The input parameters required for the calculation were derived from empirical data on single-particle excitations in neighboring odd-mass nuclei. Calculated configuration-specific values for the Gallagher-Moszkowski splittings were used. Calculated and experimental level structures for 238 Np, 244 Am, and 250 Bk are compared, as well as those for several nuclei in the rare-earth region. The agreement for the actinide species is excellent, with bandhead energies deviating 22 keV and rotational parameters 5%, on the average. Corresponding average deviations for five rare-earth nuclei are 47 keV and 7%. Several applications of this modeling technique are discussed. 18 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

  9. Ground level enhancement (GLE) energy spectrum parameters model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, G.; Wu, S.

    2017-12-01

    We study the ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 with the four energy spectra parameters, the normalization parameter C, low-energy power-law slope γ 1, high-energy power-law slope γ 2, and break energy E0, obtained by Mewaldt et al. 2012 who fit the observations to the double power-law equation. we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary (IP) shocks and another one without strong acceleration according to the condition of solar eruptions. We next fit the four parameters with solar event conditions to get models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. So that we would establish a model of energy spectrum for GLEs for the future space weather prediction.

  10. Modeling Adsorption-Desorption Processes at the Intermolecular Interactions Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varfolomeeva, Vera V.; Terentev, Alexey V.

    2018-01-01

    Modeling of the surface adsorption and desorption processes, as well as the diffusion, are of considerable interest for the physical phenomenon under study in ground tests conditions. When imitating physical processes and phenomena, it is important to choose the correct parameters to describe the adsorption of gases and the formation of films on the structural materials surface. In the present research the adsorption-desorption processes on the gas-solid interface are modeled with allowance for diffusion. Approaches are proposed to describe the adsorbate distribution on the solid body surface at the intermolecular interactions level. The potentials of the intermolecular interaction of water-water, water-methane and methane-methane were used to adequately modeling the real physical and chemical processes. The energies calculated by the B3LYP/aug-cc-pVDZ method. Computational algorithms for determining the average molecule area in a dense monolayer, are considered here. Differences in modeling approaches are also given: that of the proposed in this work and the previously approved probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) method. It has been shown that the main difference is due to certain limitations of the PCA method. The importance of accounting the intermolecular interactions via hydrogen bonding has been indicated. Further development of the adsorption-desorption processes modeling will allow to find the conditions for of surface processes regulation by means of quantity adsorbed molecules control. The proposed approach to representing the molecular system significantly shortens the calculation time in comparison with the use of atom-atom potentials. In the future, this will allow to modeling the multilayer adsorption at a reasonable computational cost.

  11. Modelling DNA origami self-assembly at the domain level

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dannenberg, Frits; Kwiatkowska, Marta [Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Wolfson Building, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QD (United Kingdom); Dunn, Katherine E. [Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PU (United Kingdom); Department of Electronics, University of York, York YO10 5DD (United Kingdom); Bath, Jonathan; Turberfield, Andrew J. [Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PU (United Kingdom); Ouldridge, Thomas E. [Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Rudolf Peierls Centre for Theoretical Physics, 1 Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3NP (United Kingdom); Department of Mathematics, Imperial College, 180 Queen’s Gate, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

    2015-10-28

    We present a modelling framework, and basic model parameterization, for the study of DNA origami folding at the level of DNA domains. Our approach is explicitly kinetic and does not assume a specific folding pathway. The binding of each staple is associated with a free-energy change that depends on staple sequence, the possibility of coaxial stacking with neighbouring domains, and the entropic cost of constraining the scaffold by inserting staple crossovers. A rigorous thermodynamic model is difficult to implement as a result of the complex, multiply connected geometry of the scaffold: we present a solution to this problem for planar origami. Coaxial stacking of helices and entropic terms, particularly when loop closure exponents are taken to be larger than those for ideal chains, introduce interactions between staples. These cooperative interactions lead to the prediction of sharp assembly transitions with notable hysteresis that are consistent with experimental observations. We show that the model reproduces the experimentally observed consequences of reducing staple concentration, accelerated cooling, and absent staples. We also present a simpler methodology that gives consistent results and can be used to study a wider range of systems including non-planar origami.

  12. Modelling DNA origami self-assembly at the domain level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dannenberg, Frits; Kwiatkowska, Marta; Dunn, Katherine E.; Bath, Jonathan; Turberfield, Andrew J.; Ouldridge, Thomas E.

    2015-01-01

    We present a modelling framework, and basic model parameterization, for the study of DNA origami folding at the level of DNA domains. Our approach is explicitly kinetic and does not assume a specific folding pathway. The binding of each staple is associated with a free-energy change that depends on staple sequence, the possibility of coaxial stacking with neighbouring domains, and the entropic cost of constraining the scaffold by inserting staple crossovers. A rigorous thermodynamic model is difficult to implement as a result of the complex, multiply connected geometry of the scaffold: we present a solution to this problem for planar origami. Coaxial stacking of helices and entropic terms, particularly when loop closure exponents are taken to be larger than those for ideal chains, introduce interactions between staples. These cooperative interactions lead to the prediction of sharp assembly transitions with notable hysteresis that are consistent with experimental observations. We show that the model reproduces the experimentally observed consequences of reducing staple concentration, accelerated cooling, and absent staples. We also present a simpler methodology that gives consistent results and can be used to study a wider range of systems including non-planar origami

  13. Modelling DNA origami self-assembly at the domain level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannenberg, Frits; Dunn, Katherine E.; Bath, Jonathan; Kwiatkowska, Marta; Turberfield, Andrew J.; Ouldridge, Thomas E.

    2015-10-01

    We present a modelling framework, and basic model parameterization, for the study of DNA origami folding at the level of DNA domains. Our approach is explicitly kinetic and does not assume a specific folding pathway. The binding of each staple is associated with a free-energy change that depends on staple sequence, the possibility of coaxial stacking with neighbouring domains, and the entropic cost of constraining the scaffold by inserting staple crossovers. A rigorous thermodynamic model is difficult to implement as a result of the complex, multiply connected geometry of the scaffold: we present a solution to this problem for planar origami. Coaxial stacking of helices and entropic terms, particularly when loop closure exponents are taken to be larger than those for ideal chains, introduce interactions between staples. These cooperative interactions lead to the prediction of sharp assembly transitions with notable hysteresis that are consistent with experimental observations. We show that the model reproduces the experimentally observed consequences of reducing staple concentration, accelerated cooling, and absent staples. We also present a simpler methodology that gives consistent results and can be used to study a wider range of systems including non-planar origami.

  14. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  15. Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

  16. Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Septiani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

  17. A system-level model for the microbial regulatory genome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Aaron N; Reiss, David J; Allard, Antoine; Wu, Wei-Ju; Salvanha, Diego M; Plaisier, Christopher L; Chandrasekaran, Sriram; Pan, Min; Kaur, Amardeep; Baliga, Nitin S

    2014-07-15

    Microbes can tailor transcriptional responses to diverse environmental challenges despite having streamlined genomes and a limited number of regulators. Here, we present data-driven models that capture the dynamic interplay of the environment and genome-encoded regulatory programs of two types of prokaryotes: Escherichia coli (a bacterium) and Halobacterium salinarum (an archaeon). The models reveal how the genome-wide distributions of cis-acting gene regulatory elements and the conditional influences of transcription factors at each of those elements encode programs for eliciting a wide array of environment-specific responses. We demonstrate how these programs partition transcriptional regulation of genes within regulons and operons to re-organize gene-gene functional associations in each environment. The models capture fitness-relevant co-regulation by different transcriptional control mechanisms acting across the entire genome, to define a generalized, system-level organizing principle for prokaryotic gene regulatory networks that goes well beyond existing paradigms of gene regulation. An online resource (http://egrin2.systemsbiology.net) has been developed to facilitate multiscale exploration of conditional gene regulation in the two prokaryotes. © 2014 The Authors. Published under the terms of the CC BY 4.0 license.

  18. Multi-level molecular modelling for plasma medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogaerts, Annemie; Khosravian, Narjes; Van der Paal, Jonas; Verlackt, Christof C W; Yusupov, Maksudbek; Kamaraj, Balu; Neyts, Erik C

    2016-01-01

    Modelling at the molecular or atomic scale can be very useful for obtaining a better insight in plasma medicine. This paper gives an overview of different atomic/molecular scale modelling approaches that can be used to study the direct interaction of plasma species with biomolecules or the consequences of these interactions for the biomolecules on a somewhat longer time-scale. These approaches include density functional theory (DFT), density functional based tight binding (DFTB), classical reactive and non-reactive molecular dynamics (MD) and united-atom or coarse-grained MD, as well as hybrid quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) methods. Specific examples will be given for three important types of biomolecules, present in human cells, i.e. proteins, DNA and phospholipids found in the cell membrane. The results show that each of these modelling approaches has its specific strengths and limitations, and is particularly useful for certain applications. A multi-level approach is therefore most suitable for obtaining a global picture of the plasma–biomolecule interactions. (paper)

  19. Modeling the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Levels in Coastal New Hampshire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, J. M.; Knott, J. F.; Daniel, J.; Kirshen, P. H.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal communities with high population density and low topography are vulnerable from sea-level rise (SLR) caused by climate change. Groundwater in coastal communities will rise with sea level impacting water quality, the structural integrity of infrastructure, and natural ecosystem health. SLR-induced groundwater rise has been studied in areas of high aquifer transmissivity and in low-lying areas immediately along the coast. In this regional study, we investigate SLR-induced groundwater rise in a coastal area characterized by shallow unconsolidated deposits overlying fractured bedrock, typical of the glaciated northeast United States. MODFLOW, a numerical groundwater-flow model, is used with groundwater observations, lidar topography, surface-water hydrology, and groundwater withdrawals to investigate SLR-induced changes in groundwater levels and vadose-zone thickness in New Hampshire's Seacoast. The SLR groundwater signal is detected up to 5 km from the coast, more than 3 times farther inland than projected surface-water flooding associated with SLR. Relative groundwater rise ranges from 38 to 98% of SLR within 1 km of the shoreline and drops below 4% between 4 and 5 km from the coast. The largest magnitude of SLR-induced groundwater rise occurs in the marine and estuarine deposits and land areas with tidal water bodies on three sides. In contrast, groundwater rise is dampened near streams. Groundwater inundation caused by 2 m of SLR is projected to contribute 48% of the total land inundation area in the City of Portsmouth with consequences for built and natural resources. Freshwater wetlands are projected to expand 3% by year 2030 increasing to 25% by year 2100 coupled with water-depth increases. These results imply that underground infrastructure and natural resources in coastal communities will be impacted by rising groundwater much farther inland than previously thought when considering only surface-water flooding from SLR.

  20. Model metadata report for the Somerset Levels 3D geological model

    OpenAIRE

    Gow, H.; Cripps, C.; Thorpe, S.; Horabin, C.; Lee, J.R.

    2014-01-01

    This report summarises the data, information and methodology used in a 3D geological model of the Somerset Levels. The model was constructed using the GSI3D software package and comprises superficial deposits at 1:50,000 scale and lower resolution bedrock units.

  1. Stepwise latent class models for explaining group-level putcomes using discrete individual-level predictors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bennink, Margot; Croon, M.A.; Vermunt, J.K.

    2015-01-01

    Explaining group-level outcomes from individual-level predictors requires aggregating the individual-level scores to the group level and correcting the group-level estimates for measurement errors in the aggregated scores. However, for discrete variables it is not clear how to perform the

  2. Polycrystalline CVD diamond device level modeling for particle detection applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morozzi, A.; Passeri, D.; Kanxheri, K.; Servoli, L.; Lagomarsino, S.; Sciortino, S.

    2016-12-01

    Diamond is a promising material whose excellent physical properties foster its use for radiation detection applications, in particular in those hostile operating environments where the silicon-based detectors behavior is limited due to the high radiation fluence. Within this framework, the application of Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) simulation tools is highly envisaged for the study, the optimization and the predictive analysis of sensing devices. Since the novelty of using diamond in electronics, this material is not included in the library of commercial, state-of-the-art TCAD software tools. In this work, we propose the development, the application and the validation of numerical models to simulate the electrical behavior of polycrystalline (pc)CVD diamond conceived for diamond sensors for particle detection. The model focuses on the characterization of a physically-based pcCVD diamond bandgap taking into account deep-level defects acting as recombination centers and/or trap states. While a definite picture of the polycrystalline diamond band-gap is still debated, the effect of the main parameters (e.g. trap densities, capture cross-sections, etc.) can be deeply investigated thanks to the simulated approach. The charge collection efficiency due to β -particle irradiation of diamond materials provided by different vendors and with different electrode configurations has been selected as figure of merit for the model validation. The good agreement between measurements and simulation findings, keeping the traps density as the only one fitting parameter, assesses the suitability of the TCAD modeling approach as a predictive tool for the design and the optimization of diamond-based radiation detectors.

  3. Polycrystalline CVD diamond device level modeling for particle detection applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morozzi, A.; Passeri, D.; Kanxheri, K.; Servoli, L.; Lagomarsino, S.; Sciortino, S.

    2016-01-01

    Diamond is a promising material whose excellent physical properties foster its use for radiation detection applications, in particular in those hostile operating environments where the silicon-based detectors behavior is limited due to the high radiation fluence. Within this framework, the application of Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) simulation tools is highly envisaged for the study, the optimization and the predictive analysis of sensing devices. Since the novelty of using diamond in electronics, this material is not included in the library of commercial, state-of-the-art TCAD software tools. In this work, we propose the development, the application and the validation of numerical models to simulate the electrical behavior of polycrystalline (pc)CVD diamond conceived for diamond sensors for particle detection. The model focuses on the characterization of a physically-based pcCVD diamond bandgap taking into account deep-level defects acting as recombination centers and/or trap states. While a definite picture of the polycrystalline diamond band-gap is still debated, the effect of the main parameters (e.g. trap densities, capture cross-sections, etc.) can be deeply investigated thanks to the simulated approach. The charge collection efficiency due to β -particle irradiation of diamond materials provided by different vendors and with different electrode configurations has been selected as figure of merit for the model validation. The good agreement between measurements and simulation findings, keeping the traps density as the only one fitting parameter, assesses the suitability of the TCAD modeling approach as a predictive tool for the design and the optimization of diamond-based radiation detectors.

  4. System Level Modelling and Performance Estimation of Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tranberg-Hansen, Anders Sejer

    The advances seen in the semiconductor industry within the last decade have brought the possibility of integrating evermore functionality onto a single chip forming functionally highly advanced embedded systems. These integration possibilities also imply that as the design complexity increases, so...... does the design time and eort. This challenge is widely recognized throughout academia and the industry and in order to address this, novel frameworks and methods, which will automate design steps as well as raise the level of abstraction used to design systems, are being called upon. To support...... is carried out in collaboration with the Danish company and DaNES partner, Bang & Olufsen ICEpower. Bang & Olufsen ICEpower provides industrial case studies which will allow the proposed modelling framework to be exercised and assessed in terms of ease of use, production speed, accuracy and efficiency...

  5. A high-level language for rule-based modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Michael; Phillips, Andrew; Plotkin, Gordon D

    2015-01-01

    Rule-based languages such as Kappa excel in their support for handling the combinatorial complexities prevalent in many biological systems, including signalling pathways. But Kappa provides little structure for organising rules, and large models can therefore be hard to read and maintain. This paper introduces a high-level, modular extension of Kappa called LBS-κ. We demonstrate the constructs of the language through examples and three case studies: a chemotaxis switch ring, a MAPK cascade, and an insulin signalling pathway. We then provide a formal definition of LBS-κ through an abstract syntax and a translation to plain Kappa. The translation is implemented in a compiler tool which is available as a web application. We finally demonstrate how to increase the expressivity of LBS-κ through embedded scripts in a general-purpose programming language, a technique which we view as generally applicable to other domain specific languages.

  6. A model for a national low level waste program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blankenhorn, James A.

    2009-01-01

    A national program for the management of low level waste is essential to the success of environmental clean-up, decontamination and decommissioning, current operations and future missions. The value of a national program is recognized through procedural consistency and a shared set of resources. A national program requires a clear waste definition and an understanding of waste characteristics matched against available and proposed disposal options. A national program requires the development and implementation of standards and procedures for implementing the waste hierarchy, with a specitic emphasis on waste avoidance, minimization and recycling. It requires a common set of objectives for waste characterization based on the disposal facility's waste acceptance criteria, regulatory and license requirements and performance assessments. Finally, a national waste certification program is required to ensure compliance. To facilitate and enhance the national program, a centralized generator services organization, tasked with providing technical services to the generators on behalf of the national program, is necessary. These subject matter experts are the interface between the generating sites and the disposal facility(s). They provide an invaluable service to the generating organizations through their involvement in waste planning prior to waste generation and through championing implementation of the waste hierarchy. Through their interface, national treatment and transportation services are optimized and new business opportunities are identified. This national model is based on extensive experience in the development and on-going management of a national transuranic waste program and management of the national repository, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. The Low Level Program at the Savannah River Site also successfully developed and implemented the waste hierarchy, waste certification and waste generator services concepts presented below. The Savannah River Site

  7. Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: global mean sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Meyssignac, B.; Agosta, C.; Champollion, N.; Church, J.A.; Fettweis, X.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Marzeion, B.; Melet, A.; Palmer, M.D.; Richter, K.; Roberts, C.D.; Spada, G.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project

  8. The Evaluation of Steam Generator Level Measurement Model for OPR1000 Using RETRAN-3D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doo Yong Lee; Soon Joon Hong; Byung Chul Lee; Heok Soon Lim

    2006-01-01

    Steam generator level measurement is important factor for plant transient analyses using best estimate thermal hydraulic computer codes since the value of steam generator level is used for steam generator level control system and plant protection system. Because steam generator is in the saturation condition which includes steam and liquid together and is the place that heat exchange occurs from primary side to secondary side, computer codes are hard to calculate steam generator level realistically without appropriate level measurement model. In this paper, we prepare the steam generator models using RETRAN-3D that include geometry models, full range feedwater control system and five types of steam generator level measurement model. Five types of steam generator level measurement model consist of level measurement model using elevation difference in downcomer, 1D level measurement model using fluid mass, 1D level measurement model using fluid volume, 2D level measurement model using power and fluid mass, and 2D level measurement model using power and fluid volume. And we perform the evaluation of the capability of each steam generator level measurement model by simulating the real plant transient condition, the title is 'Reactor Trip by The Failure of The Deaerator Level Control Card of Ulchin Unit 3'. The comparison results between real plant data and RETRAN-3D analyses for each steam generator level measurement model show that 2D level measurement model using power and fluid mass or fluid volume has more realistic prediction capability compared with other level measurement models. (authors)

  9. Macro Level Simulation Model Of Space Shuttle Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    The contents include: 1) Space Shuttle Processing Simulation Model; 2) Knowledge Acquisition; 3) Simulation Input Analysis; 4) Model Applications in Current Shuttle Environment; and 5) Model Applications for Future Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLV's). This paper is presented in viewgraph form.

  10. [Comparison of level of satisfaction of users of home care: integrated model vs. dispensaries model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorina, Marta; Limonero, Joaquín T; Peñart, Xavier; Jiménez, Jordi; Gassó, Javier

    2014-01-01

    To determine the level of satisfaction of users that receive home health care through two different models of primary health care: integrated model and dispensaries model. cross-sectional, observational study. Two primary care centers in the province of Barcelona. The questionnaire was administered to 158 chronic patients over 65 years old, of whom 67 were receiving health care from the integrated model, and 91 from the dispensaries model. The Evaluation of Satisfaction with Home Health Care (SATISFAD12) questionnaire was, together with other complementary questions about service satisfaction of home health care, as well as social demographic questions (age, sex, disease, etc). The patients of the dispensaries model showed more satisfaction than the users receiving care from the integrated model. There was a greater healthcare continuity for those patients from the dispensaries model, and a lower percentage of hospitalizations during the last year. The satisfaction of the users from both models was not associated to gender, the health perception,or independence of the The user satisfaction rate of the home care by primary health care seems to depend of the typical characteristics of each organisational model. The dispensaries model shows a higher rate of satisfaction or perceived quality of care in all the aspects analysed. More studies are neede to extrapolate these results to other primary care centers belonging to other institutions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  11. An independent verification and validation of the Future Theater Level Model conceptual model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, D.S. III; Kruse, K.L.; Martellaro, A.J.; Packard, S.L.; Thomas, B. Jr.; Turley, V.K.

    1994-08-01

    This report describes the methodology and results of independent verification and validation performed on a combat model in its design stage. The combat model is the Future Theater Level Model (FTLM), under development by The Joint Staff/J-8. J-8 has undertaken its development to provide an analysis tool that addresses the uncertainties of combat more directly than previous models and yields more rapid study results. The methodology adopted for this verification and validation consisted of document analyses. Included were detailed examination of the FTLM design documents (at all stages of development), the FTLM Mission Needs Statement, and selected documentation for other theater level combat models. These documents were compared to assess the FTLM as to its design stage, its purpose as an analytical combat model, and its capabilities as specified in the Mission Needs Statement. The conceptual design passed those tests. The recommendations included specific modifications as well as a recommendation for continued development. The methodology is significant because independent verification and validation have not been previously reported as being performed on a combat model in its design stage. The results are significant because The Joint Staff/J-8 will be using the recommendations from this study in determining whether to proceed with develop of the model.

  12. High-Level Performance Modeling of SAR Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Curtis

    2006-01-01

    SAUSAGE (Still Another Utility for SAR Analysis that s General and Extensible) is a computer program for modeling (see figure) the performance of synthetic- aperture radar (SAR) or interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (InSAR or IFSAR) systems. The user is assumed to be familiar with the basic principles of SAR imaging and interferometry. Given design parameters (e.g., altitude, power, and bandwidth) that characterize a radar system, the software predicts various performance metrics (e.g., signal-to-noise ratio and resolution). SAUSAGE is intended to be a general software tool for quick, high-level evaluation of radar designs; it is not meant to capture all the subtleties, nuances, and particulars of specific systems. SAUSAGE was written to facilitate the exploration of engineering tradeoffs within the multidimensional space of design parameters. Typically, this space is examined through an iterative process of adjusting the values of the design parameters and examining the effects of the adjustments on the overall performance of the system at each iteration. The software is designed to be modular and extensible to enable consideration of a variety of operating modes and antenna beam patterns, including, for example, strip-map and spotlight SAR acquisitions, polarimetry, burst modes, and squinted geometries.

  13. Review of health effects models for Level 3 PSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seung Hee; Kim, Ju Youl [FNC Technology Co., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Han, Seok Jung [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Many international organizations have developed health risk models. Especially, as radiation-induced cancer is an important part among health effects, development has been focused on cancer risk model. This paper reviewed the cancer risk models of international agencies; United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Moreover, as pre-research for improving the health risk model in Korea, this paper analyzed the three methodologies and specific details in modeling. International agencies have developed radiation-induced cancer risk model reflecting the recent A-bomb survivor LSS data. This paper reviewed the recent cancer risk model of UNSCEAR, NAS and ICRP. All three models were based on ERR and EAR model in the form of a multiplication of dose-response model and modification function. Lifetime risk was calculated as a function of exposure age and gender.

  14. A collision dynamics model of a multi-level train

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-11-05

    In train collisions, multi-level rail passenger vehicles can deform in modes that are different from the behavior of single level cars. The deformation in single level cars usually occurs at the front end during a collision. In one particular inciden...

  15. Low-level radioactive waste performance assessments: Source term modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Icenhour, A.S.; Godbee, H.W.; Miller, L.F.

    1995-01-01

    Low-level radioactive wastes (LLW) generated by government and commercial operations need to be isolated from the environment for at least 300 to 500 yr. Most existing sites for the storage or disposal of LLW employ the shallow-land burial approach. However, the U.S. Department of Energy currently emphasizes the use of engineered systems (e.g., packaging, concrete and metal barriers, and water collection systems). Future commercial LLW disposal sites may include such systems to mitigate radionuclide transport through the biosphere. Performance assessments must be conducted for LUW disposal facilities. These studies include comprehensive evaluations of radionuclide migration from the waste package, through the vadose zone, and within the water table. Atmospheric transport mechanisms are also studied. Figure I illustrates the performance assessment process. Estimates of the release of radionuclides from the waste packages (i.e., source terms) are used for subsequent hydrogeologic calculations required by a performance assessment. Computer models are typically used to describe the complex interactions of water with LLW and to determine the transport of radionuclides. Several commonly used computer programs for evaluating source terms include GWSCREEN, BLT (Breach-Leach-Transport), DUST (Disposal Unit Source Term), BARRIER (Ref. 5), as well as SOURCE1 and SOURCE2 (which are used in this study). The SOURCE1 and SOURCE2 codes were prepared by Rogers and Associates Engineering Corporation for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SOURCE1 is designed for tumulus-type facilities, and SOURCE2 is tailored for silo, well-in-silo, and trench-type disposal facilities. This paper focuses on the source term for ORNL disposal facilities, and it describes improved computational methods for determining radionuclide transport from waste packages

  16. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    H. Fleisher, David; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States.......01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach....

  17. ITEM LEVEL DIAGNOSTICS AND MODEL - DATA FIT IN ITEM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Global Journal

    Item response theory (IRT) is a framework for modeling and analyzing item response ... data. Though, there is an argument that the evaluation of fit in IRT modeling has been ... National Council on Measurement in Education ... model data fit should be based on three types of ... prediction should be assessed through the.

  18. Discrete time duration models with group-level heterogeneity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Anders; Honoré, Bo; Hu, Loujia

    2007-01-01

    Dynamic discrete choice panel data models have received a great deal of attention. In those models, the dynamics is usually handled by including the lagged outcome as an explanatory variable. In this paper we consider an alternative model in which the dynamics is handled by using the duration...

  19. A coordination theoretic model for three level supply chains using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    chain members decide their wholesale prices/price of product. ..... 'optimal with buyback contracts' is the new term buyback value realized which is ..... the level of optimality and robustness of a given strategy (Terzi & Cavalieri 2004).

  20. Predictive modelling of noise level generated during sawing of rocks ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents an experimental and statistical study on noise level generated .... hardness were determined according to related ISRM (1981) suggested methods. Thin section ..... tistical Package for the Social Sciences). Additionally, the ...

  1. Climbing the ladder: capability maturity model integration level 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Bryce; Lutteroth, Christof

    2011-02-01

    This article details the attempt to form a complete workflow model for an information and communication technologies (ICT) company in order to achieve a capability maturity model integration (CMMI) maturity rating of 3. During this project, business processes across the company's core and auxiliary sectors were documented and extended using modern enterprise modelling tools and a The Open Group Architectural Framework (TOGAF) methodology. Different challenges were encountered with regard to process customisation and tool support for enterprise modelling. In particular, there were problems with the reuse of process models, the integration of different project management methodologies and the integration of the Rational Unified Process development process framework that had to be solved. We report on these challenges and the perceived effects of the project on the company. Finally, we point out research directions that could help to improve the situation in the future.

  2. System level permeability modeling of porous hydrogen storage materials.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanouff, Michael P.; Dedrick, Daniel E.; Voskuilen, Tyler (Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN)

    2010-01-01

    A permeability model for hydrogen transport in a porous material is successfully applied to both laboratory-scale and vehicle-scale sodium alanate hydrogen storage systems. The use of a Knudsen number dependent relationship for permeability of the material in conjunction with a constant area fraction channeling model is shown to accurately predict hydrogen flow through the reactors. Generally applicable model parameters were obtained by numerically fitting experimental measurements from reactors of different sizes and aspect ratios. The degree of channeling was experimentally determined from the measurements and found to be 2.08% of total cross-sectional area. Use of this constant area channeling model and the Knudsen dependent Young & Todd permeability model allows for accurate prediction of the hydrogen uptake performance of full-scale sodium alanate and similar metal hydride systems.

  3. 3D Shape Modeling Using High Level Descriptors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Vedrana

    features like thorns, bark and scales. Presented here is a simple method for easy modeling, transferring and editing that kind of texture. The method is an extension of the height-field texture, but incorporates an additional tilt of the height field. Related to modeling non-heightfield textures, a part...... of my work involved developing feature-aware resizing of models with complex surfaces consisting of underlying shape and a distinctive texture detail. The aim was to deform an object while preserving the shape and size of the features.......The goal of this Ph.D. project is to investigate and improve the methods for describing the surface of 3D objects, with focus on modeling geometric texture on surfaces. Surface modeling being a large field of research, the work done during this project concentrated around a few smaller areas...

  4. Development of a low-level radioactive waste shipper model. National Low-Level Radioactive Waste Management Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-03-01

    During 1982, Inter/Face Associates, Inc., conducted a low-level radioactive waste management survey of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensees in Massachusetts for the US Department of Energy's National Low-Level Waste Management Program. In the process of conducting the survey, a model was developed, based on existing NRC license classification systems, that would identify licensees who ship low-level waste for disposal. This report presents the model and documents the procedures used in developing and testing it. After the model was tested, several modifications were developed with the goal of determining the model's ability to identify waste shippers under different parameters. The report includes a discussion of the modifications

  5. Improving the modeling of road dust levels for Barcelona at urban scale and street level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amato, F.; Zandveld, P.; Keuken, M.; Jonkers, S.; Querol, X.; Reche, C.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Schaap, M.

    2016-01-01

    Road dust emission is an emerging issue in air quality due to the lack of remediation measures in contrast to vehicle exhaust emissions. The evidence of receptor modeling studies allows for quantifying impact on a few receptors, but the high cost of PM chemical speciation data and the questionable

  6. Parametric level correlations in random-matrix models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weidenmueller, Hans A

    2005-01-01

    We show that parametric level correlations in random-matrix theories are closely related to a breaking of the symmetry between the advanced and the retarded Green functions. The form of the parametric level correlation function is the same as for the disordered case considered earlier by Simons and Altshuler and is given by the graded trace of the commutator of the saddle-point solution with the particular matrix that describes the symmetry breaking in the actual case of interest. The strength factor differs from the case of disorder. It is determined solely by the Goldstone mode. It is essentially given by the number of levels that are strongly mixed as the external parameter changes. The factor can easily be estimated in applications

  7. Two levels ARIMAX and regression models for forecasting time series data with calendar variation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono, Lee, Muhammad Hisyam; Prastyo, Dedy Dwi

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this research is to develop a calendar variation model for forecasting retail sales data with the Eid ul-Fitr effect. The proposed model is based on two methods, namely two levels ARIMAX and regression methods. Two levels ARIMAX and regression models are built by using ARIMAX for the first level and regression for the second level. Monthly men's jeans and women's trousers sales in a retail company for the period January 2002 to September 2009 are used as case study. In general, two levels of calendar variation model yields two models, namely the first model to reconstruct the sales pattern that already occurred, and the second model to forecast the effect of increasing sales due to Eid ul-Fitr that affected sales at the same and the previous months. The results show that the proposed two level calendar variation model based on ARIMAX and regression methods yields better forecast compared to the seasonal ARIMA model and Neural Networks.

  8. Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahil, Mohamed Taher; Dinar, Ariel; Albiac, Jose

    2015-03-01

    Growing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an arid and semiarid basin in Southeastern Spain to analyze the effects of droughts and to assess alternative adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events have large impacts on social welfare, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation and the environment. The water market policy seems to be a suitable option to overcome the negative economic effects of droughts, although the environmental effects may weaken its advantages for society. The environmental water market policy, where water is acquired for the environment, is an appealing policy to reap the private benefits of markets while protecting ecosystems. The current water management approach in Spain, based on stakeholders' cooperation, achieves almost the same economic outcomes and better environmental outcomes compared to a pure water market. These findings call for a reconsideration of the current management in arid and semiarid basins around the world. The paper illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, becoming a valuable tool in the advancement of sustainable water management policies.

  9. An EMTDC Model of a Three Level four MVAR Compensator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg

    1997-01-01

    The paper discusses the dynamic characteristics of a three level ±4mvar solid state var compensator which is built and will be used for dynamic reactive power compensation in a wind farm. An investigation has been carried out of the influence of the compensator reactor, the DC intermediate voltage...

  10. modelling traffic noise level on roadside traders at wurukum market

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    . This leads to poor planning and traffic control strategies within the town to reduce ... embark on a study to assess the level of noise pollution .... industrial products such as cement, fuel, timber, water, waste, etc ... used for a manual traffic count.

  11. A Minimum Cost Flow model for Level of Repair Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Basten, Robertus Johannes Ida; Schutten, Johannes M.J.; van der Heijden, Matthijs C.

    2008-01-01

    Given a product design and a repair network for capital goods, a level of repair analysis determines for each component in the product (1) whether it should be discarded or repaired upon failure and (2) at which location in the repair network to do this. In this paper, we show how the problem can be

  12. A minimum cost flow model for level of repair analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Basten, Robertus Johannes Ida; van der Heijden, Matthijs C.; Schutten, Johannes M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Given a product design and a repair network for capital goods, a level of repair analysis determines for each component in the product (1) whether it should be discarded or repaired upon failure and (2) at which location in the repair network to do this. In this paper, we show how the problem can be

  13. A two-level solvable model involving competing pairing interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dussel, G.G.; Maqueda, E.E.; Perazzo, R.P.J.; Evans, J.A.

    1986-01-01

    A model is considered consisting of nucleons moving in two non-degenerate l-shells and interacting through two pairing residual interactions with (S, T) = (1, 0) and (0, 1). These, together with the single particle hamiltonian induce mutually destructive correlations, giving rise to various collective pictures that can be discussed as representing a two-dimensional space of phases. The model is solved exactly using an O(8)xO(8) group theoretical classification scheme. The transfer of correlated pairs and quartets is also discussed. (orig.)

  14. Herd-Level Modeling and Steady-State Livestock Productivity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... an outline of the scope for applications and addresses the prospects for refinement and model extensions. The algorithms for use in development of steady state derivations include transition of matrices in a Markov Chain approach, continuous differential equations and actuarial approach built on life and fecundity tables.

  15. Modelling Question Difficulty in an A Level Physics Examination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crisp, Victoria; Grayson, Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    "Item difficulty modelling" is a technique used for a number of purposes such as to support future item development, to explore validity in relation to the constructs that influence difficulty and to predict the difficulty of items. This research attempted to explore the factors influencing question difficulty in a general qualification…

  16. Modeling the Thiophene HDS reaction on a molecular level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diemann, E.; Weber, T.; Müller, A.

    1994-01-01

    The structure of MoS2/Al2O3 catalyst and the initial step of the hydrodesulfurization (HDS) reaction using an experimental model have been studied by in situ Raman-, infrared emission (IRE)-, inelastic electron tunneling (IET)-spectroscopy and thermal desorption measurements accompanied by molecular

  17. A Multi-Level Model of Moral Functioning Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Don Collins

    2009-01-01

    The model of moral functioning scaffolded in the 2008 "JME" Special Issue is here revisited in response to three papers criticising that volume. As guest editor of that Special Issue I have formulated the main body of this response, concerning the dynamic systems approach to moral development, the problem of moral relativism and the role of…

  18. A coordination theoretic model for three level supply chains using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    city in fashion industry (Lee & Rhee 2007); two period contract model in case of decentralized assembly system (Zou et al 2008); .... p: Price of product qr : Optimal quantity of retailer Q. ∗ sc: Optimal order quantity of supply chain. S(q): Expected sales at the end of period which can be defined as: S(q) = q(1 − F(q)) −. ∫ q. 0.

  19. Two-phase electro-hydrodynamic flow modeling by a conservative level set model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yuan

    2013-03-01

    The principles of electro-hydrodynamic (EHD) flow have been known for more than a century and have been adopted for various industrial applications, for example, fluid mixing and demixing. Analytical solutions of such EHD flow only exist in a limited number of scenarios, for example, predicting a small deformation of a single droplet in a uniform electric field. Numerical modeling of such phenomena can provide significant insights about EHDs multiphase flows. During the last decade, many numerical results have been reported to provide novel and useful tools of studying the multiphase EHD flow. Based on a conservative level set method, the proposed model is able to simulate large deformations of a droplet by a steady electric field, which is beyond the region of theoretic prediction. The model is validated for both leaky dielectrics and perfect dielectrics, and is found to be in excellent agreement with existing analytical solutions and numerical studies in the literature. Furthermore, simulations of the deformation of a water droplet in decyl alcohol in a steady electric field match better with published experimental data than the theoretical prediction for large deformations. Therefore the proposed model can serve as a practical and accurate tool for simulating two-phase EHD flow. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  20. Modeling Item-Level and Step-Level Invariance Effects in Polytomous Items Using the Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gattamorta, Karina A.; Penfield, Randall D.; Myers, Nicholas D.

    2012-01-01

    Measurement invariance is a common consideration in the evaluation of the validity and fairness of test scores when the tested population contains distinct groups of examinees, such as examinees receiving different forms of a translated test. Measurement invariance in polytomous items has traditionally been evaluated at the item-level,…

  1. Overview of resuspension model: application to low level waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Healy, J.W.

    1980-01-01

    Resuspension is one of the potential pathways to man for radioactive or chemical contaminants that are in the biosphere. In waste management, spills or other surface contamination can serve as a source for resuspension during the operational phase. After the low-level waste disposal area is closed, radioactive materials can be brought to the surface by animals or insects or, in the long term, the surface can be removed by erosion. Any of these methods expose the material to resuspension in the atmosphere. Intrusion into the waste mass can produce resuspension of potential hazard to the intruder. Removal of items from the waste mass by scavengers or archeologists can result in potential resuspension exposure to others handling or working with the object. The ways in which resuspension can occur are wind resuspension, mechanical resuspension and local resuspension. While methods of predicting exposure are not accurate, they include the use of the resuspension factor, the resuspension rate and mass loading of the air

  2. Thermodynamic approach to rheological modeling and simulations at the configuration space level of description

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongschaap, R.J.J.; Denneman, A.I.M.; Denneman, A.I.M.; Conrads, W.

    1997-01-01

    The so-called matrix model is a general thermodynamic framework for microrheological modeling. This model has already been proven to be applicable for a wide class of systems, in particular to models formulated at the configuration tensor level of description. For models formulated at the

  3. Prediction of hemoglobin levels in whole blood donors: how to model donation history

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, A.M.; Vergouwe, Y.; Atsma, F.; Moons, K.G.; Kort, W.L. de

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Recently, prediction models for hemoglobin (Hb) deferral risk have been developed. These models consider the previous Hb level plus change in Hb. Here, we investigated if the performance of models could be improved by considering more information on Hb level history. STUDY DESIGN AND

  4. Dynamic thermal modelling and analysis of press-pack IGBTs both at component-level and chip-level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busca, Cristian; Teodorescu, Remus; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2013-01-01

    curves under various mechanical clamping conditions are derived. Moreover, the deformation of the internal components of the PP IGBT under operating-like conditions is investigated with the help of the thermal models and the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) information.......Thermal models are needed when designing power converters for Wind Turbines (WTs) in order to carry out thermal and reliability assessment of certain designs. Usually the thermal models of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) are given in the datasheet in various forms at component......-level, not taking into account the thermal distribution among the chips. This is especially relevant in the case of Press-Pack (PP) IGBTs because any non-uniformity of the clamping pressure can affect the chip-level thermal impedances. This happens because the contact thermal resistances in the thermal impedance...

  5. High Level Rule Modeling Language for Airline Crew Pairing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutlu, Erdal; Birbil, Ş. Ilker; Bülbül, Kerem; Yenigün, Hüsnü

    2011-09-01

    The crew pairing problem is an airline optimization problem where a set of least costly pairings (consecutive flights to be flown by a single crew) that covers every flight in a given flight network is sought. A pairing is defined by using a very complex set of feasibility rules imposed by international and national regulatory agencies, and also by the airline itself. The cost of a pairing is also defined by using complicated rules. When an optimization engine generates a sequence of flights from a given flight network, it has to check all these feasibility rules to ensure whether the sequence forms a valid pairing. Likewise, the engine needs to calculate the cost of the pairing by using certain rules. However, the rules used for checking the feasibility and calculating the costs are usually not static. Furthermore, the airline companies carry out what-if-type analyses through testing several alternate scenarios in each planning period. Therefore, embedding the implementation of feasibility checking and cost calculation rules into the source code of the optimization engine is not a practical approach. In this work, a high level language called ARUS is introduced for describing the feasibility and cost calculation rules. A compiler for ARUS is also implemented in this work to generate a dynamic link library to be used by crew pairing optimization engines.

  6. Development of a non-contextual model for determining the autonomy level of intelligent unmanned systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durst, Phillip J.; Gray, Wendell; Trentini, Michael

    2013-05-01

    A simple, quantitative measure for encapsulating the autonomous capabilities of unmanned systems (UMS) has yet to be established. Current models for measuring a UMS's autonomy level require extensive, operational level testing, and provide a means for assessing the autonomy level for a specific mission/task and operational environment. A more elegant technique for quantifying autonomy using component level testing of the robot platform alone, outside of mission and environment contexts, is desirable. Using a high level framework for UMS architectures, such a model for determining a level of autonomy has been developed. The model uses a combination of developmental and component level testing for each aspect of the UMS architecture to define a non-contextual autonomous potential (NCAP). The NCAP provides an autonomy level, ranging from fully non- autonomous to fully autonomous, in the form of a single numeric parameter describing the UMS's performance capabilities when operating at that level of autonomy.

  7. Statistical modelling of monthly mean sea level at coastal tide gauge stations along the Indian subcontinent

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Srinivas, K.; Das, V.K.; DineshKumar, P.K.

    This study investigates the suitability of statistical models for their predictive potential for the monthly mean sea level at different stations along the west and east coasts of the Indian subcontinent. Statistical modelling of the monthly mean...

  8. Flow Forecasting using Deterministic Updating of Water Levels in Distributed Hydrodynamic Urban Drainage Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lisbet Sneftrup; Borup, Morten; Moller, Arne

    2014-01-01

    drainage models and reduce a number of unavoidable discrepancies between the model and reality. The latter can be achieved partly by inserting measured water levels from the sewer system into the model. This article describes how deterministic updating of model states in this manner affects a simulation...

  9. Item level diagnostics and model - data fit in item response theory ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Item response theory (IRT) is a framework for modeling and analyzing item response data. Item-level modeling gives IRT advantages over classical test theory. The fit of an item score pattern to an item response theory (IRT) models is a necessary condition that must be assessed for further use of item and models that best fit ...

  10. Using Direct Sub-Level Entity Access to Improve Nuclear Stockpile Simulation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parker, Robert Y. [Brigham Young Univ., Provo, UT (United States)

    1999-08-01

    Direct sub-level entity access is a seldom-used technique in discrete-event simulation modeling that addresses the accessibility of sub-level entity information. The technique has significant advantages over more common, alternative modeling methods--especially where hierarchical entity structures are modeled. As such, direct sub-level entity access is often preferable in modeling nuclear stockpile, life-extension issues, an area to which it has not been previously applied. Current nuclear stockpile, life-extension models were demonstrated to benefit greatly from the advantages of direct sub-level entity access. In specific cases, the application of the technique resulted in models that were up to 10 times faster than functionally equivalent models where alternative techniques were applied. Furthermore, specific implementations of direct sub-level entity access were observed to be more flexible, efficient, functional, and scalable than corresponding implementations using common modeling techniques. Common modeling techniques (''unbatch/batch'' and ''attribute-copying'') proved inefficient and cumbersome in handling many nuclear stockpile modeling complexities, including multiple weapon sites, true defect analysis, and large numbers of weapon and subsystem types. While significant effort was required to enable direct sub-level entity access in the nuclear stockpile simulation models, the enhancements were worth the effort--resulting in more efficient, more capable, and more informative models that effectively addressed the complexities of the nuclear stockpile.

  11. Evaluation and comparison of alternative fleet-level selective maintenance models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, Kellie; Richard Cassady, C.

    2015-01-01

    Fleet-level selective maintenance refers to the process of identifying the subset of maintenance actions to perform on a fleet of repairable systems when the maintenance resources allocated to the fleet are insufficient for performing all desirable maintenance actions. The original fleet-level selective maintenance model is designed to maximize the probability that all missions in a future set are completed successfully. We extend this model in several ways. First, we consider a cost-based optimization model and show that a special case of this model maximizes the expected value of the number of successful missions in the future set. We also consider the situation in which one or more of the future missions may be canceled. These models and the original fleet-level selective maintenance optimization models are nonlinear. Therefore, we also consider an alternative model in which the objective function can be linearized. We show that the alternative model is a good approximation to the other models. - Highlights: • Investigate nonlinear fleet-level selective maintenance optimization models. • A cost based model is used to maximize the expected number of successful missions. • Another model is allowed to cancel missions if reliability is sufficiently low. • An alternative model has an objective function that can be linearized. • We show that the alternative model is a good approximation to the other models

  12. A model predictive controller for the water level of nuclear steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, Man Gyun

    2001-01-01

    In this work, the model predictive control method was applied to a linear model and a nonlinear model of steam generators. The parameters of a linear model for steam generators are very different according to the power levels. The model predictive controller was designed for the linear steam generator model at a fixed power level. The proposed controller designed at the fixed power level showed good performance for any other power levels by changing only the input-weighting factor. As the input-weighting factor usually increases, its relative stability does so. The stem generator has some nonlinear characteristics. Therefore, the proposed algorithm has been implemented for a nonlinear model of the nuclear steam generator to verify its real performance and also, showed good performance. (author)

  13. Dual deep modeling: multi-level modeling with dual potencies and its formalization in F-Logic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumayr, Bernd; Schuetz, Christoph G; Jeusfeld, Manfred A; Schrefl, Michael

    2018-01-01

    An enterprise database contains a global, integrated, and consistent representation of a company's data. Multi-level modeling facilitates the definition and maintenance of such an integrated conceptual data model in a dynamic environment of changing data requirements of diverse applications. Multi-level models transcend the traditional separation of class and object with clabjects as the central modeling primitive, which allows for a more flexible and natural representation of many real-world use cases. In deep instantiation, the number of instantiation levels of a clabject or property is indicated by a single potency. Dual deep modeling (DDM) differentiates between source potency and target potency of a property or association and supports the flexible instantiation and refinement of the property by statements connecting clabjects at different modeling levels. DDM comes with multiple generalization of clabjects, subsetting/specialization of properties, and multi-level cardinality constraints. Examples are presented using a UML-style notation for DDM together with UML class and object diagrams for the representation of two-level user views derived from the multi-level model. Syntax and semantics of DDM are formalized and implemented in F-Logic, supporting the modeler with integrity checks and rich query facilities.

  14. A Bayesian Multi-Level Factor Analytic Model of Consumer Price Sensitivities across Categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvvuri, Sri Devi; Gruca, Thomas S.

    2010-01-01

    Identifying price sensitive consumers is an important problem in marketing. We develop a Bayesian multi-level factor analytic model of the covariation among household-level price sensitivities across product categories that are substitutes. Based on a multivariate probit model of category incidence, this framework also allows the researcher to…

  15. A flow level model for wireless multihop ad hoc network throughput

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coenen, Tom Johannes Maria; van den Berg, Hans Leo; Boucherie, Richardus J.

    2005-01-01

    A flow level model for multihop wireless ad hoc networks is presented in this paper. Using a flow level view, we show the main properties and modeling challenges for ad hoc networks. Considering different scenarios, a multihop WLAN and a serial network with a TCP-like flow control protocol, we

  16. PENGEMBANGAN BUKU PEDOMAN GURU PADA PEMBELAJARAN FISIKA SMA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL PROBLEM SOLVING LEVEL INKUIRI

    OpenAIRE

    Susi Fatikhah Setiyawati; Heru Kuswanto

    2015-01-01

    Penelitian ini bertujuan: (1) menghasilkan buku pedoman guru untuk pembelajaran fisika SMA menggunakan model problem solving sesuai level inkuiri yang layak digunakan; (2) mendeskripsikan keberhasilan pembelajaran fisika menggunakan model problem solving (MPS) sesuai dengan level inkuiri sesuai dengan buku pedoman terhadap peningkatan aktivitas peserta didik dan kemampuan berpikir kritis peserta didik. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian pengembangan, sesuai langkah yang dikembangkan oleh Bor...

  17. Requirements-level semantics and model checking of object-oriented statecharts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eshuis, H.; Jansen, D.N.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we define a requirements-level execution semantics for object-oriented statecharts and show how properties of a system specified by these statecharts can be model checked using tool support for model checkers. Our execution semantics is requirements-level because it uses the perfect

  18. Investigating Margin and Grounding Line Dynamics with a Coupled Ice and Sea Level Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchar, J.; Milne, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    We present results from the coupling of an adaptive mesh glaciological model (BISICLES) with a model of glacial isostatic adjustment and sea level. We apply this coupled model to study the deglaciation of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last glacial maximum. The proximity of the GrIS to the much larger Laurentide results in an east-west gradient in sea level rates across Greenland during the deglaciation. We investigate the impacts of this sea level gradient on ice and grounding line dynamics at the margins, as well as the influence of both local and non-local ice on sea level and ice dynamics.

  19. Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi

    2017-08-01

    As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.

  20. Micro-macro multilevel latent class models with multiple discrete individual-level variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bennink, M.; Croon, M.A.; Kroon, B.; Vermunt, J.K.

    2016-01-01

    An existing micro-macro method for a single individual-level variable is extended to the multivariate situation by presenting two multilevel latent class models in which multiple discrete individual-level variables are used to explain a group-level outcome. As in the univariate case, the

  1. The Impact of School Environment and Grade Level on Student Delinquency: A Multilevel Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Celia C.; Kim, Young S.; Allen, Thomas M.; Allen, Andrea N.; Minugh, P. Allison; Lomuto, Nicoletta

    2011-01-01

    Effects on delinquency made by grade level, school type (based on grade levels accommodated), and prosocial school climate were assessed, controlling for individual-level risk and protective factors. Data were obtained from the Substance Abuse Services Division of Alabama's state mental health agency and analyzed via hierarchical linear modeling,…

  2. A Conceptual Model for Production Leveling (Heijunka) Implementation in Batch Production Systems

    OpenAIRE

    De Araujo , Luciano Fonseca; De Queiroz , Abelardo Alves

    2009-01-01

    International audience; This paper explains an implementation model for a new method for Production Leveling designed for batch production system. The main structure of this model is grounded on three constructs: traditional framework for Operations Planning, Lean Manufacturing concepts for Production Leveling and case study guidelines. By combining the first and second construct, a framework for Production Leveling has been developed for batch production systems. Then, case study guidelines ...

  3. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2017-08-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

  4. A simple procedure to model water level fluctuations in partially inundated wetlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spieksma, JFM; Schouwenaars, JM

    When modelling groundwater behaviour in wetlands, there are specific problems related to the presence of open water in small-sized mosaic patterns. A simple quasi two-dimensional model to predict water level fluctuations in partially inundated wetlands is presented. In this model, the ratio between

  5. Costs and benefits of multiple levels of models in MDA development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andrade Almeida, João; Akehurst, D.H.; Ferreira Pires, Luis; van Sinderen, Marten J.

    In Model-Driven Architecture (MDA) development, models of a distributed application are carefully defined so as to remain stable in face of changes in technology platforms. As we have argued previously in [1, 3], models in MDA can be organized into different levels of platformindependence. In this

  6. A Model of Computation for Bit-Level Concurrent Computing and Programming: APEC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajiro, Takashi; Tsuchida, Kensei

    A concurrent model of computation and a language based on the model for bit-level operation are useful for developing asynchronous and concurrent programs compositionally, which frequently use bit-level operations. Some examples are programs for video games, hardware emulation (including virtual machines), and signal processing. However, few models and languages are optimized and oriented to bit-level concurrent computation. We previously developed a visual programming language called A-BITS for bit-level concurrent programming. The language is based on a dataflow-like model that computes using processes that provide serial bit-level operations and FIFO buffers connected to them. It can express bit-level computation naturally and develop compositionally. We then devised a concurrent computation model called APEC (Asynchronous Program Elements Connection) for bit-level concurrent computation. This model enables precise and formal expression of the process of computation, and a notion of primitive program elements for controlling and operating can be expressed synthetically. Specifically, the model is based on a notion of uniform primitive processes, called primitives, that have three terminals and four ordered rules at most, as well as on bidirectional communication using vehicles called carriers. A new notion is that a carrier moving between two terminals can briefly express some kinds of computation such as synchronization and bidirectional communication. The model's properties make it most applicable to bit-level computation compositionally, since the uniform computation elements are enough to develop components that have practical functionality. Through future application of the model, our research may enable further research on a base model of fine-grain parallel computer architecture, since the model is suitable for expressing massive concurrency by a network of primitives.

  7. Spatially-varying surface roughness and ground-level air quality in an operational dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, M.J.; Brade, T.K.; MacKenzie, A.R.; Whyatt, J.D.; Carruthers, D.J.; Stocker, J.; Cai, X.; Hewitt, C.N.

    2014-01-01

    Urban form controls the overall aerodynamic roughness of a city, and hence plays a significant role in how air flow interacts with the urban landscape. This paper reports improved model performance resulting from the introduction of variable surface roughness in the operational air-quality model ADMS-Urban (v3.1). We then assess to what extent pollutant concentrations can be reduced solely through local reductions in roughness. The model results suggest that reducing surface roughness in a city centre can increase ground-level pollutant concentrations, both locally in the area of reduced roughness and downwind of that area. The unexpected simulation of increased ground-level pollutant concentrations implies that this type of modelling should be used with caution for urban planning and design studies looking at ventilation of pollution. We expect the results from this study to be relevant for all atmospheric dispersion models with urban-surface parameterisations based on roughness. -- Highlights: • Spatially variable roughness improved performance of an operational model. • Scenario modelling explored effect of reduced roughness on air pollution. • Reducing surface roughness can increase modelled ground-level pollution. • Damped vertical mixing outweighs increased horizontal advection in model study. • Result should hold for any model with a land-surface coupling based on roughness. -- Spatially varying roughness improves model simulations of urban air pollutant dispersion. Reducing roughness does not always decrease ground-level pollution concentrations

  8. Calculations on HYDROCOIN level 2, case 1 using the GWHRT flow model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thunvik, R.

    1987-03-01

    The report presents solutions to Hydrocoin Level 2: Case 1, dealing with thermal convection and conduction around a field heat transfer experiment. Hydrocoin is an international cooperation project to compare different computer models used for describing groundwater flow in geological media. The purpose of the project is to improve the understanding of various strategies for modelling groundwater flow for the safety assessment of final radioactive waste repositories. The project is structured in three levels. The object of level 2 is to study the capability of computer models to describe in-situ measurements. (orig./HP)

  9. Empirical LTE Smartphone Power Model with DRX Operation for System Level Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Mads; Noël, Laurent; Mogensen, Preben

    2013-01-01

    An LTE smartphone power model is presented to enable academia and industry to evaluate users’ battery life on system level. The model is based on empirical measurements on a smartphone using a second generation LTE chipset, and the model includes functions of receive and transmit data rates...... and power levels. The first comprehensive Discontinuous Reception (DRX) power consumption measurements are reported together with cell bandwidth, screen and CPU power consumption. The transmit power level and to some extent the receive data rate constitute the overall power consumption, while DRX proves...

  10. A Variational Level Set Model Combined with FCMS for Image Clustering Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liming Tang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The fuzzy C means clustering algorithm with spatial constraint (FCMS is effective for image segmentation. However, it lacks essential smoothing constraints to the cluster boundaries and enough robustness to the noise. Samson et al. proposed a variational level set model for image clustering segmentation, which can get the smooth cluster boundaries and closed cluster regions due to the use of level set scheme. However it is very sensitive to the noise since it is actually a hard C means clustering model. In this paper, based on Samson’s work, we propose a new variational level set model combined with FCMS for image clustering segmentation. Compared with FCMS clustering, the proposed model can get smooth cluster boundaries and closed cluster regions due to the use of level set scheme. In addition, a block-based energy is incorporated into the energy functional, which enables the proposed model to be more robust to the noise than FCMS clustering and Samson’s model. Some experiments on the synthetic and real images are performed to assess the performance of the proposed model. Compared with some classical image segmentation models, the proposed model has a better performance for the images contaminated by different noise levels.

  11. Modeling Human Exposure Levels to Airborne Volatile Organic Compounds by the Hebei Spirit Oil Spill

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Jong Ho; Kwak, Byoung Kyu; Ha, Mina; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Yi, Jongheop

    2012-01-01

    Objectives The goal was to model and quantify the atmospheric concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as the result of the Hebei Spirit oil spill, and to predict whether the exposure levels were abnormally high or not. Methods We developed a model for calculating the airborne concentration of VOCs that are produced in an oil spill accident. The model was applied to a practical situation, namely the Hebei Spirit oil spill. The accuracy of the model was verified by comparing the res...

  12. Integrative demographic modeling reveals population level impacts of PCB toxicity to juvenile snapping turtles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salice, Christopher J.; Rowe, Christopher L.; Eisenreich, Karen M.

    2014-01-01

    A significant challenge in ecotoxicology and risk assessment lies in placing observed contaminant effects in a meaningful ecological context. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been shown to affect juvenile snapping turtle survival and growth but the ecological significance of these effects is difficult to discern without a formal, population-level assessment. We used a demographic matrix model to explore the potential population-level effects of PCBs on turtles. Our model showed that effects of PCBs on juvenile survival, growth and size at hatching could translate to negative effects at the population level despite the fact that these life cycle components do not typically contribute strongly to population level processes. This research points to the utility of using integrative demographic modeling approaches to better understand contaminant effects in wildlife. The results indicate that population-level effects are only evident after several years, suggesting that for long-lived species, detecting adverse contaminant effects could prove challenging. -- Highlights: • Previous studies have shown the PCBs can impact juvenile snapping turtles. • We used a demographic model of turtles to evaluate population-level PCB effects. • PCB effects on turtles may translate to negative population responses. • Long-term monitoring is needed to detect contaminant effects on natural turtle populations. • Demographic models can improve our understanding contaminant ecotoxicity. -- A demographic model was used to show that PCB induced effects on young snapping turtles can result in adverse effects at the population level

  13. Top-Level Simulation of a Smart-Bolometer Using VHDL Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu DENOUAL

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available An event-driven modeling technique in standard VHDL is presented in this paper for the high level simulation of a resistive bolometer operating in closed-loop mode and implementing smart functions. The closed-loop mode operation is achieved by the capacitively coupled electrical substitution technique. The event-driven VHDL modeling technique is successfully applied to behavioral modeling and simulation of such a multi-physics system involving optical, thermal and electronics mechanisms. The modeling technique allows the high level simulations for the development and validation of the smart functions algorithms of the future integrated smart-device.

  14. Regional hydrogeological conceptual model of candidate Beishan area for high level radioactive waste disposal repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Hailong; Guo Yonghai

    2014-01-01

    The numerical modeling of groundwater flow is an important aspect of hydrogeological assessment in siting of a high level radioactive waste disposal repository. Hydrogeological conceptual model is the basic and premise of numerical modeling of groundwater flow. Based on the hydrogeological analysis of candidate Beishan area, surface water system was created by using DEM data and the modeling area is determined. Three-dimensional hydrogeological structure model was created through GMS software. On the basis of analysis and description of boundary condition, flow field, groundwater budget and hydrogeological parameters, hydrogeological conceptual model was set up for the Beishan area. (authors)

  15. Comparison study on models for calculation of NPP’s levelized unit electricity cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuryanti; Mochamad Nasrullah; Suparman

    2014-01-01

    Economic analysis that is generally done through the calculation of Levelized Unit Electricity Cost (LUEC) is crucial to be done prior to any investment decision on the nuclear power plant (NPP) project. There are several models that can be used to calculate LUEC, which are: R&D PT. PLN (Persero) Model, Mini G4ECONS model and Levelized Cost model. This study aimed to perform a comparison between the three models. Comparison technique was done by tracking the similarity used for each model and then given a case of LUEC calculation for SMR NPP 2 x 100 MW using these models. The result showed that the R&D PT. PLN (Persero) Model have a common principle with Mini G4ECONS model, which use Capital Recovery Factor (CRF) to discount the investment cost which eventually become annuity value along the life of plant. LUEC on both models is calculated by dividing the sum of the annual investment cost and the cost for operating NPP with an annual electricity production.While Levelized Cost model based on the annual cash flow. Total of annual costs and annual electricity production were discounted to the first year of construction in order to obtain the total discounted annual cost and the total discounted energy generation. LUEC was obtained by dividing both of the discounted values. LUEC calculations on the three models produce LUEC value, which are: 14.5942 cents US$/kWh for R&D PT. PLN (Persero) Model, 15.056 cents US$/kWh for Mini G4ECONs model and 14.240 cents US$/kWh for Levelized Cost model. (author)

  16. Soft rotator model and {sup 246}Cm low-lying level scheme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porodzinskij, Yu.V.; Sukhovitskij, E.Sh. [Radiation Physics and Chemistry Problems Inst., Minsk-Sosny (Belarus)

    1997-03-01

    Non-axial soft rotator nuclear model is suggested as self-consistent approach for interpretation of level schemes, {gamma}-transition probabilities and neutron interaction with even-even nuclei. (author)

  17. Modeling Performance in C4ISR Sustained Operations: A Multi-Level Approach (Briefing Charts)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Barnes, Christopher; Miller, James C; Elliott, Linda; Coovert, Michael

    2003-01-01

    This briefing discusses methodology and preliminary findings focused on the application of multi-level modeling techniques to distinguish effects of sleep loss and task demands on individual and team...

  18. Modeling Performance in C4ISR Sustained Operations: A Mulit-level Approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Elliott, Linda R; Coovert, Michael D; VBarnes, Christopher; Miller, James C

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we report methodology and preliminary findings focused on the application of multi-level modeling techniques to distinguish effects of sleep loss and task demands on individual and team...

  19. Enhancement of Physics-of-Failure Prognostic Models with System Level Features

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kacprzynski, Gregory

    2002-01-01

    .... The novelty in the current prognostic tool development is that predictions are made through the fusion of stochastic physics-of-failure models, relevant system or component level health monitoring...

  20. A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. I. Biological model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot

    2004-01-01

    that really uses all these methodological improvements. In this paper, the biological model describing the performance and feed intake of sows is presented. In particular, estimation of herd specific parameters is emphasized. The optimization model is described in a subsequent paper......Several replacement models have been presented in literature. In other applicational areas like dairy cow replacement, various methodological improvements like hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have been implemented, but not in sow models. Furthermore, there are methodological...... improvements like multi-level hierarchical Markov processes with decisions on multiple time scales, efficient methods for parameter estimations at herd level and standard software that has been hardly implemented at all in any replacement model. The aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model...

  1. Testing strong factorial invariance using three-level structural equation modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzanne eJak

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Within structural equation modeling, the most prevalent model to investigate measurement bias is the multigroup model. Equal factor loadings and intercepts across groups in a multigroup model represent strong factorial invariance (absence of measurement bias across groups. Although this approach is possible in principle, it is hardly practical when the number of groups is large or when the group size is relatively small. Jak, Oort and Dolan (2013 showed how strong factorial invariance across large numbers of groups can be tested in a multilevel structural equation modeling framework, by treating group as a random instead of a fixed variable. In the present study, this model is extended for use with three-level data. The proposed method is illustrated with an investigation of strong factorial invariance across 156 school classes and 50 schools in a Dutch dyscalculia test, using three-level structural equation modeling.

  2. More Precise Estimation of Lower-Level Interaction Effects in Multilevel Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeys, Tom; Josephy, Haeike; Dewitte, Marieke

    2018-01-01

    In hierarchical data, the effect of a lower-level predictor on a lower-level outcome may often be confounded by an (un)measured upper-level factor. When such confounding is left unaddressed, the effect of the lower-level predictor is estimated with bias. Separating this effect into a within- and between-component removes such bias in a linear random intercept model under a specific set of assumptions for the confounder. When the effect of the lower-level predictor is additionally moderated by another lower-level predictor, an interaction between both lower-level predictors is included into the model. To address unmeasured upper-level confounding, this interaction term ought to be decomposed into a within- and between-component as well. This can be achieved by first multiplying both predictors and centering that product term next, or vice versa. We show that while both approaches, on average, yield the same estimates of the interaction effect in linear models, the former decomposition is much more precise and robust against misspecification of the effects of cross-level and upper-level terms, compared to the latter.

  3. Modeling Abstraction Hierarchy Levels of the Cyber Attacks Using Random Process

    OpenAIRE

    Durrieu , Gilles; Frénod , Emmanuel; Morineau , Thierry; NGUYEN , THONG

    2017-01-01

    International audience; Aspects of human behavior in cyber security allow more natural security to the user. This research focuses the appearance of anticipating cyber threats and their abstraction hierarchy levels on the mental picture levels of human. The study concerns the modeling of the behaviors of mental states of an individual under cyber attacks. The mental state of agents being not observable, we propose a non-stationary hidden Markov chain approach to model the agent mental behavio...

  4. Water-Level Data Analysis for the Saturated Zone Site-Scale Flow and Transport Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tucci, P.

    2001-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an updated analysis of water-level data performed to provide the saturated-zone, site-scale flow and transport model (CRWMS M and O 2000) with the configuration of the potentiometric surface, target water-level data, and hydraulic gradients for model calibration. The previous analysis was presented in ANL-NBS-HS-000034, Rev 00 ICN 01, Water-Level Data Analysis for the Saturated Zone Site-Scale Flow and Transport Model (USGS 2001). This analysis is designed to use updated water-level data as the basis for estimating water-level altitudes and the potentiometric surface in the SZ site-scale flow and transport model domain. The objectives of this revision are to develop computer files containing (1) water-level data within the model area (DTN: GS010908312332.002), (2) a table of known vertical head differences (DTN: GS0109083 12332.003), and (3) a potentiometric-surface map (DTN: GS010608312332.001) using an alternate concept from that presented in ANL-NBS-HS-000034, Rev 00 ICN 01 for the area north of Yucca Mountain. The updated water-level data include data obtained from the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program (EWDP) and data from borehole USW WT-24. In addition to being utilized by the SZ site-scale flow and transport model, the water-level data and potentiometric-surface map contained within this report will be available to other government agencies and water users for ground-water management purposes. The potentiometric surface defines an upper boundary of the site-scale flow model, as well as provides information useful to estimation of the magnitude and direction of lateral ground-water flow within the flow system. Therefore, the analysis documented in this revision is important to SZ flow and transport calculations in support of total system performance assessment

  5. Order Level Inventory Models for Deteriorating Seasonable/Fashionable Products with Time Dependent Demand and Shortages

    OpenAIRE

    Skouri, K.; Konstantaras, I.

    2009-01-01

    An order level inventory model for seasonable/fashionable products subject to a period of increasing demand followed by a period of level demand and then by a period of decreasing demand rate (three branches ramp type demand rate) is considered. The unsatisfied demand is partially backlogged with a time dependent backlogging rate. In addition, the product deteriorates with a time dependent, namely, Weibull, deterioration rate. The model is studied under the following different replenishment p...

  6. Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

  7. Support vector regression model based predictive control of water level of U-tube steam generators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kavaklioglu, Kadir, E-mail: kadir.kavaklioglu@pau.edu.tr

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • Water level of U-tube steam generators was controlled in a model predictive fashion. • Models for steam generator water level were built using support vector regression. • Cost function minimization for future optimal controls was performed by using the steepest descent method. • The results indicated the feasibility of the proposed method. - Abstract: A predictive control algorithm using support vector regression based models was proposed for controlling the water level of U-tube steam generators of pressurized water reactors. Steam generator data were obtained using a transfer function model of U-tube steam generators. Support vector regression based models were built using a time series type model structure for five different operating powers. Feedwater flow controls were calculated by minimizing a cost function that includes the level error, the feedwater change and the mismatch between feedwater and steam flow rates. Proposed algorithm was applied for a scenario consisting of a level setpoint change and a steam flow disturbance. The results showed that steam generator level can be controlled at all powers effectively by the proposed method.

  8. A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. II. Optimization model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot

    2004-01-01

    improvements. The biological model of the replacement model is described in a previous paper and in this paper the optimization model is described. The model is developed as a prototype for use under practical conditions. The application of the model is demonstrated using data from two commercial Danish sow......Recent methodological improvements in replacement models comprising multi-level hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have hardly been implemented in any replacement model and the aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model that really uses these methodological...... herds. It is concluded that the Bayesian updating technique and the hierarchical structure decrease the size of the state space dramatically. Since parameter estimates vary considerably among herds it is concluded that decision support concerning sow replacement only makes sense with parameters...

  9. Student Teachers' Levels of Understanding and Model of Understanding about Newton's Laws of Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saglam-Arslan, Aysegul; Devecioglu, Yasemin

    2010-01-01

    This study was conducted to determine the level of student teachers' understandings of Newton's laws of motion and relating these levels to identify student teachers' models of understanding. An achievement test composed of two parts comprising 12 open ended questions was constructed and given to 45 pre-service classroom teachers. The first part…

  10. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet – sea-level modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S.W.

    2017-01-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the

  11. Revisiting the concept level of detail in 3D city modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biljecki, F.; Zhao, J.; Stoter, J.E.; Ledoux, H.

    2013-01-01

    This review paper discusses the concept of level of detail in 3D city modelling, and is a first step towards a foundation for a standardised definition. As an introduction, a few level of detail specifications, outlooks and approaches are given from the industry. The paper analyses the general

  12. A hybrid modeling with data assimilation to evaluate human exposure level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Y. S.; Cheong, H. K.; Choi, D.; Kim, A. L.; Yun, H. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Exposure models are designed to better represent human contact with PM (Particulate Matter) and other air pollutants such as CO, SO2, O3, and NO2. The exposure concentrations of the air pollutants to human are determined by global and regional long range transport of global and regional scales from Europe and China as well as local emissions from urban and road vehicle sources. To assess the exposure level in detail, the multiple scale influence from background to local sources should be considered. A hybrid air quality modeling methodology combing a grid-based chemical transport model with a local plume dispersion model was used to provide spatially and temporally resolved air quality concentration for human exposure levels in Korea. In the hybrid modeling approach, concentrations from a grid-based chemical transport model and a local plume dispersion model are added to provide contributions from photochemical interactions, long-range (regional) transport and local-scale dispersion. The CAMx (Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions was used for the background concentrations from anthropogenic and natural emissions in East Asia including Korea while the road dispersion by vehicle emission was calculated by CALPUFF model. The total exposure level of the pollutants was finally assessed by summing the background and road contributions. In the hybrid modeling, the data assimilation method based on the optimal interpolation was applied to overcome the discrepancies between the model predicted concentrations and observations. The air quality data from the air quality monitoring stations in Korea. The spatial resolution of the hybrid model was 50m for the Seoul Metropolitan Ares. This example clearly demonstrates that the exposure level could be estimated to the fine scale for the exposure assessment by using the hybrid modeling approach with data assimilation.

  13. Simulation of shallow groundwater levels: Comparison of a data-driven and a conceptual model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahle, Marcus; Dietrich, Ottfried; Lischeid, Gunnar

    2015-04-01

    Despite an abundance of models aimed at simulating shallow groundwater levels, application of such models is often hampered by a lack of appropriate input data. Difficulties especially arise with regard to soil data, which are typically hard to obtain and prone to spatial variability, eventually leading to uncertainties in the model results. Modelling approaches relying entirely on easily measured quantities are therefore an alternative to encourage the applicability of models. We present and compare two models for calculating 1-day-ahead predictions of the groundwater level that are only based on measurements of potential evapotranspiration, precipitation and groundwater levels. The first model is a newly developed conceptual model that is parametrized using the White method (which estimates the actual evapotranspiration on basis of diurnal groundwater fluctuations) and a rainfall-response ratio. Inverted versions of the two latter approaches are then used to calculate the predictions of the groundwater level. Furthermore, as a completely data-driven alternative, a simple feed-forward multilayer perceptron neural network was trained based on the same inputs and outputs. Data of 4 growing periods (April to October) from a study site situated in the Spreewald wetland in North-east Germany were taken to set-up the models and compare their performance. In addition, response surfaces that relate model outputs to combinations of different input variables are used to reveal those aspects in which the two approaches coincide and those in which they differ. Finally, it will be evaluated whether the conceptual approach can be enhanced by extracting knowledge of the neural network. This is done by replacing in the conceptual model the default function that relates groundwater recharge and groundwater level, which is assumed to be linear, by the non-linear function extracted from the neural network.

  14. An integrated radar model solution for mission level performance and cost trades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodge, John; Duncan, Kerron; Zimmerman, Madeline; Drupp, Rob; Manno, Mike; Barrett, Donald; Smith, Amelia

    2017-05-01

    A fully integrated Mission-Level Radar model is in development as part of a multi-year effort under the Northrop Grumman Mission Systems (NGMS) sector's Model Based Engineering (MBE) initiative to digitally interconnect and unify previously separate performance and cost models. In 2016, an NGMS internal research and development (IR and D) funded multidisciplinary team integrated radio frequency (RF), power, control, size, weight, thermal, and cost models together using a commercial-off-the-shelf software, ModelCenter, for an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar system. Each represented model was digitally connected with standard interfaces and unified to allow end-to-end mission system optimization and trade studies. The radar model was then linked to the Air Force's own mission modeling framework (AFSIM). The team first had to identify the necessary models, and with the aid of subject matter experts (SMEs) understand and document the inputs, outputs, and behaviors of the component models. This agile development process and collaboration enabled rapid integration of disparate models and the validation of their combined system performance. This MBE framework will allow NGMS to design systems more efficiently and affordably, optimize architectures, and provide increased value to the customer. The model integrates detailed component models that validate cost and performance at the physics level with high-level models that provide visualization of a platform mission. This connectivity of component to mission models allows hardware and software design solutions to be better optimized to meet mission needs, creating cost-optimal solutions for the customer, while reducing design cycle time through risk mitigation and early validation of design decisions.

  15. Comparing identically designed grayscale (50 phase level) and binary (5 phase levels) splitters: actual versus modeled performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizotte, Todd E.; Ohar, Orest P.; Tuttle, Tracie

    2006-04-01

    Performance of diffractive optics is determined by high-quality design and a suitable fabrication process that can actually realize the design. Engineers who are tasked with developing or implementing a diffractive optic solution into a product need to take into consideration the risks of using grayscale versus binary fabrication processes. In many cases, grayscale design doesn't always provide the best solution or cost benefit during product development. This fabrication dilemma arises when the engineer has to select a source for design and/or fabrication. Engineers come face to face with reality in view of the fact that diffractive optic suppliers tend to provide their services on a "best effort basis". This can be very disheartening to an engineer who is trying to implement diffractive optics. This paper will compare and contrast the design and performance of a 1 to 24 beam, two dimensional; beam splitter fabricated using a fifty (50) phase level grayscale and a five (5) phase level binary fabrication methods. Optical modeling data will be presented showing both designs and the performance expected prior to fabrication. An overview of the optical testing methods used will be discussed including the specific test equipment and metrology techniques used to verify actual optical performance and fabricated dimensional stability of each optical element. Presentation of the two versions of the splitter will include data on fabrication dimensional errors, split beam-to-beam uniformity, split beam-to-beam spatial size uniformity and splitter efficiency as compared to the original intended design performance and models. This is a continuation of work from 2005, Laser Beam Shaping VI.

  16. State-level electricity demand forecasting model. [For 1980, 1985, 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, H. D.

    1978-01-01

    This note briefly describes the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) state-level electricity demand (SLED) forecasting model developed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Specifically, the note presents (1) the special features of the model, (2) the methodology used to forecast electricity demand, and (3) forecasts of electricity demand and average price by sector for 15 states for 1980, 1985, 1990.

  17. Modelling soil water dynamics and crop water uptake at the field level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kabat, P.; Feddes, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    Parametrization approaches to model soil water dynamics and crop water uptake at field level were analysed. Averaging and numerical difficulties in applying numerical soil water flow models to heterogeneous soils are highlighted. Simplified parametrization approaches to the soil water flow, such as

  18. Using the QUAIT Model to Effectively Teach Research Methods Curriculum to Master's-Level Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Nancy J.; Gitchel, Dent

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To apply Slavin's model of effective instruction to teaching research methods to master's-level students. Methods: Barriers to the scientist-practitioner model (student research experience, confidence, and utility value pertaining to research methods as well as faculty research and pedagogical incompetencies) are discussed. Results: The…

  19. A Dynamic Multi-Level Factor Model with Long-Range Dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ergemen, Yunus Emre; Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir

    A dynamic multi-level factor model with stationary or nonstationary global and regional factors is proposed. In the model, persistence in global and regional common factors as well as innovations allows for the study of fractional cointegrating relationships. Estimation of global and regional...

  20. Developing the multi-level functioning interface framework for DER models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Xue; Bindner, Henrik W.; You, Shi

    2013-01-01

    The paper summarises several modelling applications of distributed energy resources (DERs) for various purposes, and describes the related operational issues regarding the complexity of the future distribution grid. Furthermore, a multi-level functioning interface framework is proposed for DER mo....... The information mapping for photovoltaic panel (PV) modelling is also provided as an example....

  1. Neutral-point voltage dynamic model of three-level NPC inverter for reactive load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maheshwari, Ram Krishan; Munk-Nielsen, Stig; Busquets-Monge, Sergio

    2012-01-01

    A three-level neutral-point-clamped inverter needs a controller for the neutral-point voltage. Typically, the controller design is based on a dynamic model. The dynamic model of the neutral-point voltage depends on the pulse width modulation technique used for the inverter. A pulse width modulati...

  2. An object model for genome information at all levels of resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honda, S.; Parrott, N.W.; Smith, R.; Lawrence, C.

    1993-12-31

    An object model for genome data at all levels of resolution is described. The model was derived by considering the requirements for representing genome related objects in three application domains: genome maps, large-scale DNA sequencing, and exploring functional information in gene and protein sequences. The methodology used for the object-oriented analysis is also described.

  3. A thick level set interface model for simulating fatigue-drive delamination in composites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Latifi, M.; Van der Meer, F.P.; Sluys, L.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a new damage model for simulating fatigue-driven delamination in composite laminates. This model is developed based on the Thick Level Set approach (TLS) and provides a favorable link between damage mechanics and fracture mechanics through the non-local evaluation of the energy

  4. Habitat Modeling of Alien Plant Species at Varying Levels of Occupancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer A. Brown

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Distribution models of invasive plants are very useful tools for conservation management. There are challenges in modeling expanding populations, especially in a dynamic environment, and when data are limited. In this paper, predictive habitat models were assessed for three invasive plant species, at differing levels of occurrence, using two different habitat modeling techniques: logistic regression and maximum entropy. The influence of disturbance, spatial and temporal heterogeneity, and other landscape characteristics is assessed by creating regional level models based on occurrence records from the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis database. Logistic regression and maximum entropy models were assessed independently. Ensemble models were developed to combine the predictions of the two analysis approaches to obtain a more robust prediction estimate. All species had strong models with Area Under the receiver operator Curve (AUC of >0.75. The species with the highest occurrence, Ligustrum spp., had the greatest agreement between the models (93%. Lolium arundinaceum had the most disagreement between models at 33% and the lowest AUC values. Overall, the strength of integrative modeling in assessing and understanding habitat modeling was demonstrated.

  5. Model tracking system for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities: License application interrogatories and responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benbennick, M.E.; Broton, M.S.; Fuoto, J.S.; Novgrod, R.L.

    1994-08-01

    This report describes a model tracking system for a low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal facility license application. In particular, the model tracks interrogatories (questions, requests for information, comments) and responses. A set of requirements and desired features for the model tracking system was developed, including required structure and computer screens. Nine tracking systems were then reviewed against the model system requirements and only two were found to meet all requirements. Using Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis, a model tracking system was selected.

  6. Model tracking system for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities: License application interrogatories and responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benbennick, M.E.; Broton, M.S.; Fuoto, J.S.; Novgrod, R.L.

    1994-08-01

    This report describes a model tracking system for a low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal facility license application. In particular, the model tracks interrogatories (questions, requests for information, comments) and responses. A set of requirements and desired features for the model tracking system was developed, including required structure and computer screens. Nine tracking systems were then reviewed against the model system requirements and only two were found to meet all requirements. Using Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis, a model tracking system was selected

  7. Statistical Models to Assess the Health Effects and to Forecast Ground Level Ozone

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schlink, U.; Herbath, O.; Richter, M.; Dorling, S.; Nunnari, G.; Cawley, G.; Pelikán, Emil

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 4 (2006), s. 547-558 ISSN 1364-8152 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300414 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : statistical models * ground level ozone * health effects * logistic model * forecasting * prediction performance * neural network * generalised additive model * integrated assessment Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.992, year: 2006

  8. Individual and culture-level components of survey response styles: A multi-level analysis using cultural models of selfhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Peter B; Vignoles, Vivian L; Becker, Maja; Owe, Ellinor; Easterbrook, Matthew J; Brown, Rupert; Bourguignon, David; Garðarsdóttir, Ragna B; Kreuzbauer, Robert; Cendales Ayala, Boris; Yuki, Masaki; Zhang, Jianxin; Lv, Shaobo; Chobthamkit, Phatthanakit; Jaafar, Jas Laile; Fischer, Ronald; Milfont, Taciano L; Gavreliuc, Alin; Baguma, Peter; Bond, Michael Harris; Martin, Mariana; Gausel, Nicolay; Schwartz, Seth J; Des Rosiers, Sabrina E; Tatarko, Alexander; González, Roberto; Didier, Nicolas; Carrasco, Diego; Lay, Siugmin; Nizharadze, George; Torres, Ana; Camino, Leoncio; Abuhamdeh, Sami; Macapagal, Ma Elizabeth J; Koller, Silvia H; Herman, Ginette; Courtois, Marie; Fritsche, Immo; Espinosa, Agustín; Villamar, Juan A; Regalia, Camillo; Manzi, Claudia; Brambilla, Maria; Zinkeng, Martina; Jalal, Baland; Kusdil, Ersin; Amponsah, Benjamin; Çağlar, Selinay; Mekonnen, Kassahun Habtamu; Möller, Bettina; Zhang, Xiao; Schweiger Gallo, Inge; Prieto Gil, Paula; Lorente Clemares, Raquel; Campara, Gabriella; Aldhafri, Said; Fülöp, Márta; Pyszczynski, Tom; Kesebir, Pelin; Harb, Charles

    2016-12-01

    Variations in acquiescence and extremity pose substantial threats to the validity of cross-cultural research that relies on survey methods. Individual and cultural correlates of response styles when using 2 contrasting types of response mode were investigated, drawing on data from 55 cultural groups across 33 nations. Using 7 dimensions of self-other relatedness that have often been confounded within the broader distinction between independence and interdependence, our analysis yields more specific understandings of both individual- and culture-level variations in response style. When using a Likert-scale response format, acquiescence is strongest among individuals seeing themselves as similar to others, and where cultural models of selfhood favour harmony, similarity with others and receptiveness to influence. However, when using Schwartz's (2007) portrait-comparison response procedure, acquiescence is strongest among individuals seeing themselves as self-reliant but also connected to others, and where cultural models of selfhood favour self-reliance and self-consistency. Extreme responding varies less between the two types of response modes, and is most prevalent among individuals seeing themselves as self-reliant, and in cultures favouring self-reliance. As both types of response mode elicit distinctive styles of response, it remains important to estimate and control for style effects to ensure valid comparisons. © 2016 International Union of Psychological Science.

  9. Order Level Inventory Models for Deteriorating Seasonable/Fashionable Products with Time Dependent Demand and Shortages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Skouri

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available An order level inventory model for seasonable/fashionable products subject to a period of increasing demand followed by a period of level demand and then by a period of decreasing demand rate (three branches ramp type demand rate is considered. The unsatisfied demand is partially backlogged with a time dependent backlogging rate. In addition, the product deteriorates with a time dependent, namely, Weibull, deterioration rate. The model is studied under the following different replenishment policies: (a starting with no shortages and (b starting with shortages. The optimal replenishment policy for the model is derived for both the above mentioned policies.

  10. Solving bi-level optimization problems in engineering design using kriging models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Yi; Liu, Xiaojie; Du, Gang

    2018-05-01

    Stackelberg game-theoretic approaches are applied extensively in engineering design to handle distributed collaboration decisions. Bi-level genetic algorithms (BLGAs) and response surfaces have been used to solve the corresponding bi-level programming models. However, the computational costs for BLGAs often increase rapidly with the complexity of lower-level programs, and optimal solution functions sometimes cannot be approximated by response surfaces. This article proposes a new method, namely the optimal solution function approximation by kriging model (OSFAKM), in which kriging models are used to approximate the optimal solution functions. A detailed example demonstrates that OSFAKM can obtain better solutions than BLGAs and response surface-based methods, and at the same time reduce the workload of computation remarkably. Five benchmark problems and a case study of the optimal design of a thin-walled pressure vessel are also presented to illustrate the feasibility and potential of the proposed method for bi-level optimization in engineering design.

  11. Observations and a linear model of water level in an interconnected inlet-bay system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aretxabaleta, Alfredo; Ganju, Neil K.; Butman, Bradford; Signell, Richard

    2017-01-01

    A system of barrier islands and back-barrier bays occurs along southern Long Island, New York, and in many coastal areas worldwide. Characterizing the bay physical response to water level fluctuations is needed to understand flooding during extreme events and evaluate their relation to geomorphological changes. Offshore sea level is one of the main drivers of water level fluctuations in semienclosed back-barrier bays. We analyzed observed water levels (October 2007 to November 2015) and developed analytical models to better understand bay water level along southern Long Island. An increase (∼0.02 m change in 0.17 m amplitude) in the dominant M2 tidal amplitude (containing the largest fraction of the variability) was observed in Great South Bay during mid-2014. The observed changes in both tidal amplitude and bay water level transfer from offshore were related to the dredging of nearby inlets and possibly the changing size of a breach across Fire Island caused by Hurricane Sandy (after December 2012). The bay response was independent of the magnitude of the fluctuations (e.g., storms) at a specific frequency. An analytical model that incorporates bay and inlet dimensions reproduced the observed transfer function in Great South Bay and surrounding areas. The model predicts the transfer function in Moriches and Shinnecock bays where long-term observations were not available. The model is a simplified tool to investigate changes in bay water level and enables the evaluation of future conditions and alternative geomorphological settings.

  12. The Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Level 3 Package: Qualitative Models, Version 1, Release 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaouiya, Claudine; Keating, Sarah M; Berenguier, Duncan; Naldi, Aurélien; Thieffry, Denis; van Iersel, Martijn P; Le Novère, Nicolas; Helikar, Tomáš

    2015-09-04

    Quantitative methods for modelling biological networks require an in-depth knowledge of the biochemical reactions and their stoichiometric and kinetic parameters. In many practical cases, this knowledge is missing. This has led to the development of several qualitative modelling methods using information such as, for example, gene expression data coming from functional genomic experiments. The SBML Level 3 Version 1 Core specification does not provide a mechanism for explicitly encoding qualitative models, but it does provide a mechanism for SBML packages to extend the Core specification and add additional syntactical constructs. The SBML Qualitative Models package for SBML Level 3 adds features so that qualitative models can be directly and explicitly encoded. The approach taken in this package is essentially based on the definition of regulatory or influence graphs. The SBML Qualitative Models package defines the structure and syntax necessary to describe qualitative models that associate discrete levels of activities with entity pools and the transitions between states that describe the processes involved. This is particularly suited to logical models (Boolean or multi-valued) and some classes of Petri net models can be encoded with the approach.

  13. Preterm labor--modeling the uterine electrical activity from cellular level to surface recording.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rihana, S; Marque, C

    2008-01-01

    Uterine electrical activity is correlated to the appearance of uterine contractions. forceful contractions appear at the end of term. Therefore, understanding the genesis and the propagation of uterine electrical activity may provide an efficient tool to diagnose preterm labor. Moreover, the control of uterine excitability seems to have important consequences in the control of preterm labor. Modeling the electrical activity in uterine tissue is thus an important step in understanding physiological uterine contractile mechanisms and to permit uterine EMG simulation. Our model presented in this paper, incorporates ion channel models at the cell level, the reaction diffusion equations at the tissue level and the spatiotemporal integration at the uterine EMG reconstructed level. This model validates some key physiological observation hypotheses concerning uterine excitability and propagation.

  14. Multi-model predictive control method for nuclear steam generator water level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Ke; Yuan Jingqi

    2008-01-01

    The dynamics of a nuclear steam generator (SG) is very different according to the power levels and changes as time goes on. Therefore, it is an intractable as well as challenging task to improve the water level control system of the SG. In this paper, a robust model predictive control (RMPC) method is developed for the level control problem. Based on a multi-model framework, a combination of a local nominal model with a polytopic uncertain linear parameter varying (LPV) model is built to approximate the system's non-linear behavior. The optimization problem solved here is based on a receding horizon scheme involving the linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. Closed loop stability and constraints satisfaction in the entire operating range are guaranteed by the feasibility of the optimization problem. Finally, simulation results show the effectiveness and the good performance of the proposed method

  15. Modeling the instability behavior of thin film devices: Fermi Level Pinning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeini, Iman; Ahmadpour, Mohammad; Gorji, Nima E.

    2018-05-01

    We investigate the underlying physics of degradation/recovery of a metal/n-CdTe Schottcky junction under reverse or forward bias stressing conditions. We used Sah-Noyce-Shockley (SNS) theory to investigate if the swept of Fermi level pinning at different levels (under forward/reverse bias) is the origin of change in current-voltage characteristics of the device. This theory is based on Shockley-Read-Hall recombination within the depletion width and takes into account the interface defect levels. Fermi Level Pinning theory was primarily introduced by Ponpon and developed to thin film solar cells by Dharmadasa's group in Sheffield University-UK. The theory suggests that Fermi level pinning at multiple levels occurs due to high concentration of electron-traps or acceptor-like defects at the interface of a Schottky or pn junction and this re-arranges the recombination rate and charage collection. Shift of these levels under stress conditions determines the change in current-voltage characteristics of the cell. This theory was suggested for several device such as metal/n-CdTe, CdS/CdTe, CIGS/CdS or even GaAs solar cells without a modeling approach to clearly explain it's physics. We have applied the strong SNS modeling approach to shed light on Fermi Level Pinning theory. The modeling confirms that change in position of Fermi Level and it's pining in a lower level close to Valence band increases the recombination and reduces the open-circuit voltage. In contrast, Fermi Level pinning close to conduction band strengthens the electric field at the junction which amplifies the carrier collection and boosts the open-circuit voltage. This theory can well explain the stress effect on device characteristics of various solar cells or Schottky junctions by simply finding the right Fermi level pinning position at every specific stress condition.

  16. Modeling of SVM Diode Clamping Three-Level Inverter Connected to Grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yougui; Zeng, Ping; Zhu, Jieqiong

    2011-01-01

    PLECS is used to model the diode clamping three-level inverter connected to grid and good results are obtained. First the output voltage SVM is described for diode clamping three-level inverter with loads connected to Y. Then the output voltage SVM of diode clamping three-level inverter is simply...... analyzed with loads connected to △. But it will be further researched in the future. Third, PLECS is briefly introduced. Fourth, the modeling of diode clamping three-level inverter is briefly presented with PLECS. Finally, a series of simulations are carried out. The simulation results tell us PLECS...... is very powerful tool to real power circuits and it is very easy to simulate them. They have also verified that SVM control strategy is feasible to control the diode clamping three-level inverter....

  17. Tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise: importance of local-scale models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Takekawa, John Y.

    2015-01-01

    Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting study-site conditions were comprised of 78% (253-ha) high marsh, 7% (30-ha) mid marsh, and 4% (18-ha) low marsh habitats, dominated by pickleweed Sarcocornia pacifica and cordgrass Spartina spp. Only under the low sea-level rise scenario (44 cm by 2100) did our models show persistence of some marsh habitats to 2100, with the area dominated by low marsh habitats. Under mid (93 cm by 2100) and high sea-level rise scenarios (166 cm by 2100), most mid and high marsh habitat was lost by 2070, with only 15% (65 ha) remaining, and a complete loss of these habitats by 2080. Low marsh habitat increased temporarily under all three sea-level rise scenarios, with the peak (286 ha) in 2070, adding habitat for the endemic endangered California Ridgway’s rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus. Under mid and high sea-level rise scenarios, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred, with most of the area below mean sea level. Our modeling assumed no marsh migration upslope due to human

  18. PENGEMBANGAN BUKU PEDOMAN GURU PADA PEMBELAJARAN FISIKA SMA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL PROBLEM SOLVING LEVEL INKUIRI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susi Fatikhah Setiyawati

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan: (1 menghasilkan buku pedoman guru untuk pembelajaran fisika SMA menggunakan model problem solving sesuai level inkuiri yang layak digunakan; (2 mendeskripsikan keberhasilan pembelajaran fisika menggunakan model problem solving (MPS sesuai dengan level inkuiri sesuai dengan buku pedoman terhadap peningkatan aktivitas peserta didik dan kemampuan berpikir kritis peserta didik. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian pengembangan, sesuai langkah yang dikembangkan oleh Borg & Gall. Subjek coba menggunakan delapan kelas. Pengumpulan data menggunakan angket respon peserta didik, lembar observasi keterlaksanaan proses pembelajaran, lembar observasi aktivitas belajar dan tes kemampuan berfikir kritis peserta didik. Teknik analisis data menggunakan uji multivariat (Manova. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa produk yang dikembangkan ditinjau dari aspek materi, petunjuk umum buku, RPP & LKPD, dan perangkat penilaiam pembelajaran menurut ahli materi dan ahli media berkategori baik dan terdapat perbedaan peningkatan kemampuan berfikir kritis dan aktivitas belajar peserta didik yang signifikan antara keenam level inkuiri yang diujicobakan. Kata Kunci: model problem solving, level inkuiri, kemampuan berfikir kritis, aktivitas belajar   DEVELOPING A HANDBOOK FOR TEACHER IN TEACHERS HIGH SCHOOL LEVEL PHYSICS USE THE MODEL OF PROBLEM SOLVING LEVEL OF INQUIRY Abstract This study aims to: (1 to produce a handbook for teachers high school level physics use a model of problem solving with level of inquiry fit for use; (2 to determine the successful learning of physics using a model of problem solving in accordance with the level of inquiry to increase learning activities of learners and critical thinking abilities of learners. This research is the development, which refers to measures developed by Borg & Gall. The subject try consists of eight classes. Data collection using the questionnaire responses of learners, observation sheets learning

  19. Reducing failures rate within the project documentation using Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prušková Kristýna

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Paper´s focus is on differences between traditional modelling in 2D software and modelling within the BIM technology. Research uncovers failures connected to the traditional way of designing and construction of project documentation. There are revealed and shown mismatches within the project documentation. Solution within the Building information modelling Technology is outlined. As a reference, there is used experience with design of specific building in both ways of construction of project documentation: in the way of traditional modelling and in the way when using BIM technology, especially using Level of Development. Output of this paper is pointing to benefits of using advanced technology in building design, thus Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development, which leads to reducing failures rate within the project documentation.

  20. Bayesian Mixed Hidden Markov Models: A Multi-Level Approach to Modeling Categorical Outcomes with Differential Misclassification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yue; Berhane, Kiros

    2014-01-01

    Questionnaire-based health status outcomes are often prone to misclassification. When studying the effect of risk factors on such outcomes, ignoring any potential misclassification may lead to biased effect estimates. Analytical challenges posed by these misclassified outcomes are further complicated when simultaneously exploring factors for both the misclassification and health processes in a multi-level setting. To address these challenges, we propose a fully Bayesian Mixed Hidden Markov Model (BMHMM) for handling differential misclassification in categorical outcomes in a multi-level setting. The BMHMM generalizes the traditional Hidden Markov Model (HMM) by introducing random effects into three sets of HMM parameters for joint estimation of the prevalence, transition and misclassification probabilities. This formulation not only allows joint estimation of all three sets of parameters, but also accounts for cluster level heterogeneity based on a multi-level model structure. Using this novel approach, both the true health status prevalence and the transition probabilities between the health states during follow-up are modeled as functions of covariates. The observed, possibly misclassified, health states are related to the true, but unobserved, health states and covariates. Results from simulation studies are presented to validate the estimation procedure, to show the computational efficiency due to the Bayesian approach and also to illustrate the gains from the proposed method compared to existing methods that ignore outcome misclassification and cluster level heterogeneity. We apply the proposed method to examine the risk factors for both asthma transition and misclassification in the Southern California Children's Health Study (CHS). PMID:24254432

  1. Modeling the level of contamination of Staphylococcus aureus in ready-to-eat kimbab in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahk, Gyung-Jin; Hong, Chong-Hae; Oh, Deog-Hwan; Ha, Sang-Do; Park, Ki-Hwan; Todd, Ewen C D

    2006-06-01

    The risk of Staphylococcus aureus in ready-to-eat kimbab (rice rolled in laver) sold in Korea was evaluated by a mathematical modeling approach. Four nodes were constructed from preparation at retail to consumption. A predictive microbial growth model and survey data were combined with probabilistic modeling to simulate the level of S. aureus in a single kimbab at the time of consumption. We estimated the mean level of S. aureus to be 2.92 log CFU/g for a typical kimbab (150 to 200 g each) at the time of consumption. Our model also showed that 29.73% of the kimbabs had > or = 100,000 S. aureus CFU/g, which poses some risk of illness, since some level of enterotoxin would be expected from toxigenic strains. However, because of the lack of dose-response models for staphylococcal enterotoxin, the final level of S. aureus in the kimbabs could not be used to estimate how many people would become ill from eating them. Correlation sensitivity results showed that consumer eating patterns and initial contamination levels at retail stores were the most significant risk factors for illness and that temperature control under 10 degrees C was a critical control point in kimbab retail establishments to prevent the growth of S. aureus.

  2. Generalized Cauchy model of sea level fluctuations with long-range dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Li, Jia-Yue

    2017-10-01

    This article suggests the contributions with two highlights. One is to propose a novel model of sea level fluctuations (sea level for short), which is called the generalized Cauchy (GC) process. It provides a new outlook for the description of local and global behaviors of sea level from a view of fractal in that the fractal dimension D that measures the local behavior of sea level and the Hurst parameter H which characterizes the global behavior of sea level are independent of each other. The other is to show that sea level appears multi-fractal in both spatial and time. Such a meaning of multi-fractal is new in the sense that a pair of fractal parameters (D, H) of sea level is varying with measurement sites and time. This research exhibits that the ranges of D and H of sea level, in general, are 1 ≤ D sea level, we shall show that H > 0 . 96 for all data records at all measurement sites, implying that strong LRD may be a general phenomenon of sea level. On the other side, regarding with the local behavior, we will reveal that there appears D = 1 or D ≈ 1 for data records at a few stations and at some time, but D > 0 . 96 at most stations and at most time, meaning that sea level may appear highly local irregularity more frequently than weak local one.

  3. Kriged and modeled ambient air levels of benzene in an urban environment: an exposure assessment study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lai Dejian

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is increasing concern regarding the potential adverse health effects of air pollution, particularly hazardous air pollutants (HAPs. However, quantifying exposure to these pollutants is problematic. Objective Our goal was to explore the utility of kriging, a spatial interpolation method, for exposure assessment in epidemiologic studies of HAPs. We used benzene as an example and compared census tract-level kriged predictions to estimates obtained from the 1999 U.S. EPA National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA, Assessment System for Population Exposure Nationwide (ASPEN model. Methods Kriged predictions were generated for 649 census tracts in Harris County, Texas using estimates of annual benzene air concentrations from 17 monitoring sites operating in Harris and surrounding counties from 1998 to 2000. Year 1999 ASPEN modeled estimates were also obtained for each census tract. Spearman rank correlation analyses were performed on the modeled and kriged benzene levels. Weighted kappa statistics were computed to assess agreement between discretized kriged and modeled estimates of ambient air levels of benzene. Results There was modest correlation between the predicted and modeled values across census tracts. Overall, 56.2%, 40.7%, 31.5% and 28.2% of census tracts were classified as having 'low', 'medium-low', 'medium-high' and 'high' ambient air levels of benzene, respectively, comparing predicted and modeled benzene levels. The weighted kappa statistic was 0.26 (95% confidence interval (CI = 0.20, 0.31, indicating poor agreement between the two methods. Conclusions There was a lack of concordance between predicted and modeled ambient air levels of benzene. Applying methods of spatial interpolation for assessing exposure to ambient air pollutants in health effect studies is hindered by the placement and number of existing stationary monitors collecting HAP data. Routine monitoring needs to be expanded if we are to use these data

  4. Sea-level rise modeling handbook: Resource guide for coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Chivoiu, Bogdan; Enwright, Nicholas M.

    2015-08-24

    Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems. The review herein of decision-support tools and predictive models was compiled from the training sessions, from online research, and from publications. The purpose of this guide is to describe and categorize the suite of data, methods, and models and their design, structure, and application for hindcasting and forecasting the potential impacts of sea-level rise in coastal ecosystems. The data and models cover a broad spectrum of disciplines involving different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting environmental change and ecosystem response. These data and models have not heretofore been synthesized, nor have appraisals been made of their utility or limitations. Some models are demonstration tools for non-experts, whereas others require more expert capacity to apply for any given park, refuge, or regional application. A simplified tabular context has been developed to list and contrast a host of decision-support tools and models from the ecological, geological, and hydrological perspectives. Criteria were established to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic datasets; physical and biological constraints and relations; datum characteristics of water and land components

  5. Low-level radioactive waste source term model development and testing: Topical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.M.; Kempf, C.R.; Suen, C.J.; Mughabghab, S.M.

    1988-08-01

    The Low-Level Waste Source Term Evaluation Project has the objective to develop a system model capable of predicting radionuclide release rates from a shallow land burial facility. The previous topical report for this project discussed the framework and methodology for developing a system model and divided the problem into four compartments: water flow, container degradation, waste form leaching, and radionuclide transport. Each of these compartments is described by submodels which will be coupled into the system model. From February 1987 to March 1988, computer models have been selected to predict water flow (FEMWATER) and radionuclide transport (FEMWASTE) and separate models have been developed to predict pitting corrosion of steel containers and leaching from porous waste forms contained in corrodible containers. This report discusses each of the models in detail and presents results obtained from applying the models to shallow land burial trenches over a range of expected conditions. 68 refs., 34 figs., 14 tabs

  6. Evolution Scenarios at the Romanian Economy Level, Using the R.M. Solow Adjusted Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian Stancu

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the presentation of the R.M. Solow adjusted model with specific simulation characteristics and economic growth scenario. Considering these aspects, there are presented the values obtained at the economy level, behind the simulations, about the ratio Capital on the output volume, Output volume on employee, equal with the current labour efficiency, as well as the Labour efficiency value.

  7. Validation on groundwater flow model including sea level change. Modeling on groundwater flow in coastal granite area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Takuma; Miyakawa, Kimio

    2009-01-01

    It is important to verify the groundwater flow model that reproduces pressure head, water chemistry, and groundwater age. However, water chemistry and groundwater age are considered to be influenced by historical events. In this study, sea level change during glacial-interglacial cycle was taken into account for simulating salinity and groundwater age at coastal granite area. As a result of simulation, salinity movement could not catch up with sea level changes, and mixing zone was formed below the fresh-water zone. This mixing zone was observed in the field measurement, and the observed salinities were agreed with simulated results including sea level change. The simulated residence time including sea level change is one-tenth of steady state. The reason is that the saline water was washed out during regression and modern sea-water was infiltrated during transgression. As mentioned before, considering sea level change are important to reproduce salinity and helium age at coastal area. (author)

  8. RISCOM Applied to the Belgian Partnership Model: More and Deeper Levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bombaerts, Gunter; Bovy, Michel; Laes, Erik

    2006-01-01

    Technology participation is not a new concept. It has been applied in different settings in different countries. In this article, we report a comparing analysis of the RISCOM model in Sweden and the Belgian partnership model for low and intermediate short-lived nuclear waste. After a brief description of the partnerships and the RISCOM model, we apply the latter to the first and come to recommendations for the partnership model. The strength of the partnership approach is at the community level. In one of the villages, up to one percent of the population was motivated to discuss at least once a month for four years the nuts and bolts of the repository concept. The stress on the community level and the lack of a guardian includes a weakness as well. First of all, if communities come into competition, the inter-community discussions can start resembling local politics and can become less transparent. Local actors are concerned actors but actors at the national level are concerned as well. The local decisions influence how the waste will be transported. The local decisions also determine an extra cost of electricity. We therefore recommend a broad (in terms of territory) public debate on the participation experiments preceding and concluding the local participation process in which this local process maintains an important position. The conclusions of our comparative analysis are: (1) The guardian of the process at the national level is missing. Since the Belgian nuclear regulator plays a controlling role after the process, we recommend a technology assessment institute at the federal level. (2) We state that stretching in the partnership model can happen more profoundly and recommend a 'counter institute' at the European level. The role of non-participative actors should be valued. (3) Recursion levels can be taken as a point of departure for discussion about the problem framing. If people accept them, there is no problem. If people clearly mention issues that are

  9. RISCOM Applied to the Belgian Partnership Model: More and Deeper Levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bombaerts, Gunter; Bovy, Michel; Laes, Erik [SCKCEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

    2006-09-15

    Technology participation is not a new concept. It has been applied in different settings in different countries. In this article, we report a comparing analysis of the RISCOM model in Sweden and the Belgian partnership model for low and intermediate short-lived nuclear waste. After a brief description of the partnerships and the RISCOM model, we apply the latter to the first and come to recommendations for the partnership model. The strength of the partnership approach is at the community level. In one of the villages, up to one percent of the population was motivated to discuss at least once a month for four years the nuts and bolts of the repository concept. The stress on the community level and the lack of a guardian includes a weakness as well. First of all, if communities come into competition, the inter-community discussions can start resembling local politics and can become less transparent. Local actors are concerned actors but actors at the national level are concerned as well. The local decisions influence how the waste will be transported. The local decisions also determine an extra cost of electricity. We therefore recommend a broad (in terms of territory) public debate on the participation experiments preceding and concluding the local participation process in which this local process maintains an important position. The conclusions of our comparative analysis are: (1) The guardian of the process at the national level is missing. Since the Belgian nuclear regulator plays a controlling role after the process, we recommend a technology assessment institute at the federal level. (2) We state that stretching in the partnership model can happen more profoundly and recommend a 'counter institute' at the European level. The role of non-participative actors should be valued. (3) Recursion levels can be taken as a point of departure for discussion about the problem framing. If people accept them, there is no problem. If people clearly mention issues

  10. Water-Level Data Analysis for the Saturated Zone Site-Scale Flow and Transport Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rehfeldt

    2004-01-01

    This report is an updated analysis of water-level data performed to provide the ''Saturated Zone Site-Scale Flow Model'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170037]) (referred to as the saturated zone (SZ) site-scale flow model or site-scale SZ flow model in this report) with the configuration of the potentiometric surface, target water-level data, and hydraulic gradients for calibration of groundwater flow models. This report also contains an expanded discussion of uncertainty in the potentiometric-surface map. The analysis of the potentiometric data presented in Revision 00 of this report (USGS 2001 [DIRS 154625]) provides the configuration of the potentiometric surface, target heads, and hydraulic gradients for the calibration of the SZ site-scale flow model (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170037]). Revision 01 of this report (USGS 2004 [DIRS 168473]) used updated water-level data for selected wells through the year 2000 as the basis for estimating water-level altitudes and the potentiometric surface in the SZ site-scale flow and transport model domain based on an alternative interpretation of perched water conditions. That revision developed computer files containing: Water-level data within the model area (DTN: GS010908312332.002); A table of known vertical head differences (DTN: GS010908312332.003); and A potentiometric-surface map (DTN: GS010608312332.001) using an alternative concept from that presented by USGS (2001 [DIRS 154625]) for the area north of Yucca Mountain. The updated water-level data presented in USGS (2004 [DIRS 168473]) include data obtained from the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program (EWDP) Phases I and II and data from Borehole USW WT-24. This document is based on Revision 01 (USGS 2004 [DIRS 168473]) and expands the discussion of uncertainty in the potentiometric-surface map. This uncertainty assessment includes an analysis of the impact of more recent water-level data and the impact of adding data from the EWDP Phases III and IV wells. In addition to being utilized

  11. Water-Level Data Analysis for the Saturated Zone Site-Scale Flow and Transport Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rehfeldt

    2004-10-08

    This report is an updated analysis of water-level data performed to provide the ''Saturated Zone Site-Scale Flow Model'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170037]) (referred to as the saturated zone (SZ) site-scale flow model or site-scale SZ flow model in this report) with the configuration of the potentiometric surface, target water-level data, and hydraulic gradients for calibration of groundwater flow models. This report also contains an expanded discussion of uncertainty in the potentiometric-surface map. The analysis of the potentiometric data presented in Revision 00 of this report (USGS 2001 [DIRS 154625]) provides the configuration of the potentiometric surface, target heads, and hydraulic gradients for the calibration of the SZ site-scale flow model (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170037]). Revision 01 of this report (USGS 2004 [DIRS 168473]) used updated water-level data for selected wells through the year 2000 as the basis for estimating water-level altitudes and the potentiometric surface in the SZ site-scale flow and transport model domain based on an alternative interpretation of perched water conditions. That revision developed computer files containing: Water-level data within the model area (DTN: GS010908312332.002); A table of known vertical head differences (DTN: GS010908312332.003); and A potentiometric-surface map (DTN: GS010608312332.001) using an alternative concept from that presented by USGS (2001 [DIRS 154625]) for the area north of Yucca Mountain. The updated water-level data presented in USGS (2004 [DIRS 168473]) include data obtained from the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program (EWDP) Phases I and II and data from Borehole USW WT-24. This document is based on Revision 01 (USGS 2004 [DIRS 168473]) and expands the discussion of uncertainty in the potentiometric-surface map. This uncertainty assessment includes an analysis of the impact of more recent water-level data and the impact of adding data from the EWDP Phases III and IV wells. In

  12. Water level management of lakes connected to regulated rivers: An integrated modeling and analytical methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Tengfei; Mao, Jingqiao; Pan, Shunqi; Dai, Lingquan; Zhang, Peipei; Xu, Diandian; Dai, Huichao

    2018-07-01

    Reservoir operations significantly alter the hydrological regime of the downstream river and river-connected lake, which has far-reaching impacts on the lake ecosystem. To facilitate the management of lakes connected to regulated rivers, the following information must be provided: (1) the response of lake water levels to reservoir operation schedules in the near future and (2) the importance of different rivers in terms of affecting the water levels in different lake regions of interest. We develop an integrated modeling and analytical methodology for the water level management of such lakes. The data-driven method is used to model the lake level as it has the potential of producing quick and accurate predictions. A new genetic algorithm-based synchronized search is proposed to optimize input variable time lags and data-driven model parameters simultaneously. The methodology also involves the orthogonal design and range analysis for extracting the influence of an individual river from that of all the rivers. The integrated methodology is applied to the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake. The results show that: (1) the antecedent lake levels are of crucial importance for the current lake level prediction; (2) the selected river discharge time lags reflect the spatial heterogeneity of the rivers' impacts on lake level changes; (3) the predicted lake levels are in very good agreement with the observed data (RMSE ≤ 0.091 m; R2 ≥ 0.9986). This study demonstrates the practical potential of the integrated methodology, which can provide both the lake level responses to future dam releases and the relative contributions of different rivers to lake level changes.

  13. Analysis of area level and unit level models for small area estimation in forest inventories assisted with LiDAR auxiliary information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauro, Francisco; Monleon, Vicente J; Temesgen, Hailemariam; Ford, Kevin R

    2017-01-01

    Forest inventories require estimates and measures of uncertainty for subpopulations such as management units. These units often times hold a small sample size, so they should be regarded as small areas. When auxiliary information is available, different small area estimation methods have been proposed to obtain reliable estimates for small areas. Unit level empirical best linear unbiased predictors (EBLUP) based on plot or grid unit level models have been studied more thoroughly than area level EBLUPs, where the modelling occurs at the management unit scale. Area level EBLUPs do not require a precise plot positioning and allow the use of variable radius plots, thus reducing fieldwork costs. However, their performance has not been examined thoroughly. We compared unit level and area level EBLUPs, using LiDAR auxiliary information collected for inventorying 98,104 ha coastal coniferous forest. Unit level models were consistently more accurate than area level EBLUPs, and area level EBLUPs were consistently more accurate than field estimates except for large management units that held a large sample. For stand density, volume, basal area, quadratic mean diameter, mean height and Lorey's height, root mean squared errors (rmses) of estimates obtained using area level EBLUPs were, on average, 1.43, 2.83, 2.09, 1.40, 1.32 and 1.64 times larger than those based on unit level estimates, respectively. Similarly, direct field estimates had rmses that were, on average, 1.37, 1.45, 1.17, 1.17, 1.26, and 1.38 times larger than rmses of area level EBLUPs. Therefore, area level models can lead to substantial gains in accuracy compared to direct estimates, and unit level models lead to very important gains in accuracy compared to area level models, potentially justifying the additional costs of obtaining accurate field plot coordinates.

  14. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipscomb, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-19

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  15. System-Level Modelling and Simulation of MEMS-Based Sensors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Virk, Kashif M.; Madsen, Jan; Shafique, Mohammad

    2005-01-01

    The growing complexity of MEMS devices and their increased used in embedded systems (e.g., wireless integrated sensor networks) demands a disciplined aproach for MEMS design as well as the development of techniques for system-level modeling of these devices so that a seamless integration with the......The growing complexity of MEMS devices and their increased used in embedded systems (e.g., wireless integrated sensor networks) demands a disciplined aproach for MEMS design as well as the development of techniques for system-level modeling of these devices so that a seamless integration...... with the existing embedded system design methodologies is possible. In this paper, we present a MEMS design methodology that uses VHDL-AMS based system-level model of a MEMS device as a starting point and combines the top-down and bottom-up design approaches for design, verification, and optimization...

  16. A simple model to estimate the impact of sea-level rise on platform beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taborda, Rui; Ribeiro, Mónica Afonso

    2015-04-01

    Estimates of future beach evolution in response to sea-level rise are needed to assess coastal vulnerability. A research gap is identified in providing adequate predictive methods to use for platform beaches. This work describes a simple model to evaluate the effects of sea-level rise on platform beaches that relies on the conservation of beach sand volume and assumes an invariant beach profile shape. In closed systems, when compared with the Inundation Model, results show larger retreats; the differences are higher for beaches with wide berms and when the shore platform develops at shallow depths. The application of the proposed model to Cascais (Portugal) beaches, using 21st century sea-level rise scenarios, shows that there will be a significant reduction in beach width.

  17. Treatment of Electronic Energy Level Transition and Ionization Following the Particle-Based Chemistry Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liechty, Derek S.; Lewis, Mark

    2010-01-01

    A new method of treating electronic energy level transitions as well as linking ionization to electronic energy levels is proposed following the particle-based chemistry model of Bird. Although the use of electronic energy levels and ionization reactions in DSMC are not new ideas, the current method of selecting what level to transition to, how to reproduce transition rates, and the linking of the electronic energy levels to ionization are, to the author s knowledge, novel concepts. The resulting equilibrium temperatures are shown to remain constant, and the electronic energy level distributions are shown to reproduce the Boltzmann distribution. The electronic energy level transition rates and ionization rates due to electron impacts are shown to reproduce theoretical and measured rates. The rates due to heavy particle impacts, while not as favorable as the electron impact rates, compare favorably to values from the literature. Thus, these new extensions to the particle-based chemistry model of Bird provide an accurate method for predicting electronic energy level transition and ionization rates in gases.

  18. Sea level driven marsh expansion in a coupled model of marsh erosion and migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Walters, David C.; Reay, William G.; Carr, Joel

    2016-01-01

    Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, where ecosystem services such as flood protection depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here we propose a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how ecosystem connectivity influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that marsh loss is nearly inevitable where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit migration. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. This behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention.

  19. Intensity profiles of superdeformed bands in Pb isotopes in a two-level mixing model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, A. N.; Szigeti, S. S.; Rogers, J. I.; Davidson, P. M.; Cardamone, D. M.

    2009-01-01

    A recently developed two-level mixing model of the decay out of superdeformed bands is applied to examine the loss of flux from the yrast superdeformed bands in 192 Pb, 194 Pb, and 196 Pb. Probability distributions for decay to states at normal deformations are calculated at each level. The sensitivity of the results to parameters describing the levels at normal deformation and their coupling to levels in the superdeformed well is explored. It is found that except for narrow ranges of the interaction strength coupling the states, the amount of intensity lost is primarily determined by the ratio of γ decay widths in the normal and superdeformed wells. It is also found that while the model can accommodate the observed fractional intensity loss profiles for decay from bands at relatively high excitation, it cannot accommodate the similarly abrupt decay from bands at lower energies if standard estimates of the properties of the states in the first minimum are employed

  20. Modelling the impacts of sea level rise on tidal basin ecomorphodynamics and mangrove habitat evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Maanen, Barend; Coco, Giovanni; Bryan, Karin

    2016-04-01

    The evolution of tidal basins and estuaries in tropical and subtropical regions is often influenced by the presence of mangrove forests. These forests are amongst the most productive environments in the world and provide important ecosystem services. However, these intertidal habitats are also extremely vulnerable and are threatened by climate change impacts such as sea level rise. It is therefore of key importance to improve our understanding of how tidal systems occupied by mangrove vegetation respond to rising water levels. An ecomorphodynamic model was developed that simulates morphological change and mangrove forest evolution as a result of mutual feedbacks between physical and biological processes. The model accounts for the effects of mangrove trees on tidal flow patterns and sediment dynamics. Mangrove growth is in turn controlled by hydrodynamic conditions. Under stable water levels, model results indicate that mangrove trees enhance the initiation and branching of tidal channels, partly because the extra flow resistance in mangrove forests favours flow concentration, and thus sediment erosion in between vegetated areas. The landward expansion of the channels, on the other hand, is reduced. Model simulations including sea level rise suggest that mangroves can potentially enhance the ability of the soil surface to maintain an elevation within the upper portion of the intertidal zone. While the sea level is rising, mangroves are migrating landward and the channel network tends to expand landward too. The presence of mangrove trees, however, was found to hinder both the branching and headward erosion of the landward expanding channels. Simulations are performed according to different sea level rise scenarios and with different tidal range conditions to assess which tidal environments are most vulnerable. Changes in the properties of the tidal channel networks are being examined as well. Overall, model results highlight the role of mangroves in driving the

  1. A mathematical model for predicting glucose levels in critically-ill patients: the PIGnOLI model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongheng Zhang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives. Glycemic control is of paramount importance in the intensive care unit. Presently, several BG control algorithms have been developed for clinical trials, but they are mostly based on experts’ opinion and consensus. There are no validated models predicting how glucose levels will change after initiating of insulin infusion in critically ill patients. The study aimed to develop an equation for initial insulin dose setting.Methods. A large critical care database was employed for the study. Linear regression model fitting was employed. Retested blood glucose was used as the independent variable. Insulin rate was forced into the model. Multivariable fractional polynomials and interaction terms were used to explore the complex relationships among covariates. The overall fit of the model was examined by using residuals and adjusted R-squared values. Regression diagnostics were used to explore the influence of outliers on the model.Main Results. A total of 6,487 ICU admissions requiring insulin pump therapy were identified. The dataset was randomly split into two subsets at 7 to 3 ratio. The initial model comprised fractional polynomials and interactions terms. However, this model was not stable by excluding several outliers. I fitted a simple linear model without interaction. The selected prediction model (Predicting Glucose Levels in ICU, PIGnOLI included variables of initial blood glucose, insulin rate, PO volume, total parental nutrition, body mass index (BMI, lactate, congestive heart failure, renal failure, liver disease, time interval of BS recheck, dextrose rate. Insulin rate was significantly associated with blood glucose reduction (coefficient: −0.52, 95% CI [−1.03, −0.01]. The parsimonious model was well validated with the validation subset, with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.8259.Conclusion. The study developed the PIGnOLI model for the initial insulin dose setting. Furthermore, experimental study is

  2. A Python Implementation of an Intermediate-Level Tropical Circulation Model and Implications for How Modeling Science is Done

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J. W. B.

    2015-12-01

    Historically, climate models have been developed incrementally and in compiled languages like Fortran. While the use of legacy compiledlanguages results in fast, time-tested code, the resulting model is limited in its modularity and cannot take advantage of functionalityavailable with modern computer languages. Here we describe an effort at using the open-source, object-oriented language Pythonto create more flexible climate models: the package qtcm, a Python implementation of the intermediate-level Neelin-Zeng Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation model (QTCM1) of the atmosphere. The qtcm package retains the core numerics of QTCM1, written in Fortran, to optimize model performance but uses Python structures and utilities to wrap the QTCM1 Fortran routines and manage model execution. The resulting "mixed language" modeling package allows order and choice of subroutine execution to be altered at run time, and model analysis and visualization to be integrated in interactively with model execution at run time. This flexibility facilitates more complex scientific analysis using less complex code than would be possible using traditional languages alone and provides tools to transform the traditional "formulate hypothesis → write and test code → run model → analyze results" sequence into a feedback loop that can be executed automatically by the computer.

  3. Facility level SSAC for model country - an introduction and material balance accounting principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, R.J.

    1989-01-01

    A facility level State System of Accounting for and Control of Nuclear Materials (SSAC) for a model country and the principles of materials balance accounting relating to that country are described. The seven principal elements of a SSAC are examined and a facility level system based on them discussed. The seven elements are organization and management; nuclear material measurements; measurement quality; records and reports; physical inventory taking; material balance closing; containment and surveillance. 11 refs., 19 figs., 5 tabs

  4. Measuring a Level of Water Pollution in Sungai Pinang Using a Mathematical Model

    OpenAIRE

    Mahamud, Mohd Amirul; Ramasamy, Rajasegeran

    2013-01-01

    Mathematical models are now a popular tool in many applications such as physics, economics and engineering; and provide useful information for decision making and planning. Water pollution in Malaysia has reached a level that needs attention and intervention from environmental department and government. In order to make a strong case, this paper has done a study on measuring the pollution level of Sungai Pinang which is located in Penang Island, Malaysia. Advection-Dispersion equation is one ...

  5. PERANCANGAN KANAL KOMUNIKASI PADA TRANSACTION LEVEL MODELING DALAM PERANCANGAN EMBEDDED SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maman Abdurohman

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Pada embedded system terdapat dua bagian penting yaitu komponen komputasi (register dan komponen komunikasi. Komponen komunikasi menjadi perhatian penting pada mekanisme pemodelan level transaksi (Transaction Level Modeling, TLM. Kanal komunikasi adalah komponen untuk transaksi antar register. Fokus pembahasan TLM adalah perancangan kanal yang dapat mengakomodasi untuk peningkatan level transaksi. Kanal (channel adalah implementasi bus untuk komunikasi antar komponen pada embedded system. Hal ini adalah kunci penting untuk mencapai impelementasi TLM untuk meningkatkan efisiensi pemodelan. Pada paper ini diusulkan beberapa definisi rancangan kanal sebagai implementasi TLM untuk perancangan embedded system. Hasilnya menunjukan bahwa rancangan kanal dapat berjalan sebagai bus untuk transaksi pada TLM. Paper ini menggunakan SystemC sebagai bahasa pemodelan. On embedded systems, there are two important parts: computational components (registers and communication components. Communication component becomes an important attention on the mechanism of transaction level modeling (TLM. Communication channel is a component for transactions between registers. The focus of TLM is the design of the channel that could accommodate for the increased level of transactions. Channel is the implementation of the bus for communication between components in embedded systems. This is an important key to achieve the implementation of TLM to improve the efficiency of modeling. This paper proposed a definition of the channel design as the implementation of TLM for embedded systems design. The result shows that the design of the channel can run as a bus for transactions on the TLM. This paper uses SystemC as modeling language.

  6. Cluster regression model and level fluctuation features of Van Lake, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Şen

    1999-02-01

    Full Text Available Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.Key words. Hydrology (hydrologic budget; stochastic processes · Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (ocean-atmosphere interactions

  7. Cluster regression model and level fluctuation features of Van Lake, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Şen

    Full Text Available Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.

    Key words. Hydrology (hydrologic budget; stochastic processes · Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (ocean-atmosphere interactions

  8. Optimising a Model of Minimum Stock Level Control and a Model of Standing Order Cycle in Selected Foundry Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymszal J.

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available It has been found that the area where one can look for significant reserves in the procurement logistics is a rational management of the stock of raw materials. Currently, the main purpose of projects which increase the efficiency of inventory management is to rationalise all the activities in this area, taking into account and minimising at the same time the total inventory costs. The paper presents a method for optimising the inventory level of raw materials under a foundry plant conditions using two different control models. The first model is based on the estimate of an optimal level of the minimum emergency stock of raw materials, giving information about the need for an order to be placed immediately and about the optimal size of consignments ordered after the minimum emergency level has occurred. The second model is based on the estimate of a maximum inventory level of raw materials and an optimal order cycle. Optimisation of the presented models has been based on the previously done selection and use of rational methods for forecasting the time series of the delivery of a chosen auxiliary material (ceramic filters to a casting plant, including forecasting a mean size of the delivered batch of products and its standard deviation.

  9. Effective description of general extensions of the Standard Model: the complete tree-level dictionary

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Blas, J.; Criado, J. C.; Pérez-Victoria, M.; Santiago, J.

    2018-03-01

    We compute all the tree-level contributions to the Wilson coefficients of the dimension-six Standard-Model effective theory in ultraviolet completions with general scalar, spinor and vector field content and arbitrary interactions. No assumption about the renormalizability of the high-energy theory is made. This provides a complete ultraviolet/infrared dictionary at the classical level, which can be used to study the low-energy implications of any model of interest, and also to look for explicit completions consistent with low-energy data.

  10. Optimal blood glucose level control using dynamic programming based on minimal Bergman model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rettian Anggita Sari, Maria; Hartono

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this article is to simulate the glucose dynamic and the insulin kinetic of diabetic patient. The model used in this research is a non-linear Minimal Bergman model. Optimal control theory is then applied to formulate the problem in order to determine the optimal dose of insulin in the treatment of diabetes mellitus such that the glucose level is in the normal range for some specific time range. The optimization problem is solved using dynamic programming. The result shows that dynamic programming is quite reliable to represent the interaction between glucose and insulin levels in diabetes mellitus patient.

  11. Evaluation of high-level waste pretreatment processes with an approximate reasoning model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.; Agnew, S.F.

    1999-01-01

    The development of an approximate-reasoning (AR)-based model to analyze pretreatment options for high-level waste is presented. AR methods are used to emulate the processes used by experts in arriving at a judgment. In this paper, the authors first consider two specific issues in applying AR to the analysis of pretreatment options. They examine how to combine quantitative and qualitative evidence to infer the acceptability of a process result using the example of cesium content in low-level waste. They then demonstrate the use of simple physical models to structure expert elicitation and to produce inferences consistent with a problem involving waste particle size effects

  12. A New Perspective of Investment Modelling at the European Union Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alin OPREANA

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The study that represents the subject of this paper follows the analysis of the investment function and the influencing factors at the European Union level. The research has, as a starting point, the hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between the European Union investments and tax rates. For verifying this hypothesis, the structural equation modeling is used (SEM, and the same technique is applied in the second part of the research, which will track the development of the investments’ model at the European Union level. The results will highlight the relationships that are established between specific variables that characterize the volume of investments.

  13. Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goelzer, H; Huybrechts, P; Raper, S C B; Loutre, M-F; Goosse, H; Fichefet, T

    2012-01-01

    Sea-level is expected to rise for a long time to come, even after stabilization of human-induced climatic warming. Here we use simulations with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to project sea-level changes over the third millennium forced with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that stabilize by either 2000 or 2100 AD. The model includes 3D thermomechanical models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model, a global glacier melt algorithm to account for the response of mountain glaciers and ice caps, and a procedure for assessing oceanic thermal expansion from oceanic heat uptake. Four climate change scenarios are considered to determine sea-level commitments. These assume a 21st century increase in greenhouse gases according to SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2 with a stabilization of the atmospheric composition after the year 2100. One additional scenario assumes 1000 years of constant atmospheric composition from the year 2000 onwards. For our preferred model version, we find an already committed total sea-level rise of 1.1 m by 3000 AD. In experiments with greenhouse gas concentration stabilization at 2100 AD, the total sea-level rise ranges between 2.1 m (B1), 4.1 m (A1B) and 6.8 m (A2). In all scenarios, more than half of this amount arises from the Greenland ice sheet, thermal expansion is the second largest contributor, and the contribution of glaciers and ice caps is small as it is limited by the available ice volume of maximally 25 cm of sea-level equivalent. Additionally, we analysed the sensitivity of the sea-level contributions from an ensemble of nine different model versions that cover a large range of climate sensitivity realized by model parameter variations of the atmosphere–ocean model. Selected temperature indices are found to be good predictors for sea-level contributions from the different components of land ice and oceanic thermal expansion after 1000 years. (letter)

  14. MAC-Level Communication Time Modeling and Analysis for Real-Time WSNs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    STANGACIU, V.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Low-level communication protocols and their timing behavior are essential to developing wireless sensor networks (WSNs able to provide the support and operating guarantees required by many current real-time applications. Nevertheless, this aspect still remains an issue in the state-of-the-art. In this paper we provide a detailed analysis of a recently proposed MAC-level communication timing model and demonstrate its usability in designing real-time protocols. The results of a large set of measurements are also presented and discussed here, in direct relation to the main time parameters of the analyzed model.

  15. Light Path Model of Fiber Optic Liquid Level Sensor Considering Residual Liquid Film on the Wall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhijun Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The working principle of the refractive-type fiber optic liquid level sensor is analyzed in detail based on the light refraction principle. The optic path models are developed in consideration of common simplification and the residual liquid film on the glass tube wall. The calculating formulae for the model are derived, constraint conditions are obtained, influencing factors are discussed, and the scopes and skills of application are analyzed through instance simulations. The research results are useful in directing the correct usage of the fiber optic liquid level sensor, especially in special cases, such as those involving viscous liquid in the glass tube monitoring.

  16. Probe-level linear model fitting and mixture modeling results in high accuracy detection of differential gene expression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lemieux Sébastien

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The identification of differentially expressed genes (DEGs from Affymetrix GeneChips arrays is currently done by first computing expression levels from the low-level probe intensities, then deriving significance by comparing these expression levels between conditions. The proposed PL-LM (Probe-Level Linear Model method implements a linear model applied on the probe-level data to directly estimate the treatment effect. A finite mixture of Gaussian components is then used to identify DEGs using the coefficients estimated by the linear model. This approach can readily be applied to experimental design with or without replication. Results On a wholly defined dataset, the PL-LM method was able to identify 75% of the differentially expressed genes within 10% of false positives. This accuracy was achieved both using the three replicates per conditions available in the dataset and using only one replicate per condition. Conclusion The method achieves, on this dataset, a higher accuracy than the best set of tools identified by the authors of the dataset, and does so using only one replicate per condition.

  17. Integrated model of Korean spent fuel and high level waste disposal options - 16091

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Yongsoo; Miller, Ian

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes an integrated model developed by the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) to simulate options for disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and reprocessing products in South Korea. A companion paper (Hwang and Miller, 2009) describes a systems-level model of Korean options for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management in the 21. century. The model addresses alternative design concepts for disposal of SNF of different types (Candu, PWR), high level waste, and fission products arising from a variety of alternative fuel cycle back ends. It uses the GoldSim software to simulate the engineered system, near-field and far-field geosphere, and biosphere, resulting in long-term dose predictions for a variety of receptor groups. The model's results allow direct comparison of alternative repository design concepts, and identification of key parameter uncertainties and contributors to receptor doses. (authors)

  18. The Use of BPMN for Modelling The MES Level in Information and Control Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Michalik

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes how to use the process map to model the MES level of information and control systems. In the practical application, the BPMN standard was used for the design of the function of the management maintenance, which, according MES organization, is one of the 11 basic MES functions. The application was implemented on the flexible production line, located in the laboratory at the Department of Cybernetics and Artificial Intelligence. In this article, there is only one BPMN model of  a MES function from the set of modelled functions in our laboratory. These functions were also modelled by the UML Activity Diagram. Although the UML model is not included in this article, there is a comparison of these approaches based on selected criteria and our experiences with modelling in the laboratory at the university.

  19. Asymptotically exact solution of the multi-channel resonant-level model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Guangming; Su Zhaobin; Yu Lu.

    1994-01-01

    An asymptotically exact partition function of the multi-channel resonant-level model is obtained through Tomonaga-Luttinger bosonization. A Fermi-liquid vs. non-Fermi-liquid transition, resulting from a competition between the Kondo and X-ray edge physics, is elucidated explicitly via the renormalization group theory. In the strong-coupling limit, the model is renormalized to the Toulouse limit. (author). 20 refs, 1 fig

  20. FAST COMMUNICATION: A PDE Based Two Level Model of the Masking Property of the Human Ear

    OpenAIRE

    Xin, Jack; Qi, Yingyong

    2003-01-01

    Human ear has the masking property that certain audible sound becomes inaudible in the presence of another sound. Masking is quantified by the raised threshold from the absolute hearing threshold in quiet. It is of scientific and practical importance to compute masking thresholds. Empirical models on masking have applications in low bit rate digital music compression. A first principle based two level model is developed with partial differential equation (PDE) at the periphe...

  1. MPEG-7 low level image descriptors for modeling users' web pages visual appeal opinion

    OpenAIRE

    Uribe Mayoral, Silvia; Alvarez Garcia, Federico; Menendez Garcia, Jose Manuel

    2015-01-01

    The study of the users' web pages first impression is an important factor for interface designers, due to its influence over the final opinion about a site. In this regard, the analysis of web aesthetics can be considered as an interesting tool for evaluating this early impression, and the use of low level image descriptors for modeling it in an objective way represents an innovative research field. According to this, in this paper we present a new model for website aesthetics evaluation and ...

  2. A Formal Model of Trust Chain based on Multi-level Security Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Kong Xiangying

    2013-01-01

    Trust chain is the core technology of trusted computing. A formal model of trust chain based on finite state automata theory is proposed. We use communicating sequential processes to describe the system state transition in trust chain and by combining with multi-level security strategy give the definition of trust system and trust decision theorem of trust chain transfer which is proved meantime. Finally, a prototype system is given to show the efficiency of the model.

  3. Molecular-level chemistry of model single-crystal oxide surfaces with model halogenated compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adib, Kaveh

    Synchrotron-based X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), temperature-programmed desorption (TPD) and low energy electron diffraction (LEED) have been used to investigate, at a molecular level, the chemistry of different terminations of single crystal iron-oxide surfaces with probe molecules (CCl4 and D2O). Comparisons of the reactivity of these surfaces towards CCl4, indicate that the presence of an uncapped surface Fe cation (strong Lewis acid site) and an adjacent oxygen site capped by that cation can effect the C-Cl bond cleavage in CCl4, resulting in dissociatively adsorbed Cl-adatoms and carbon-containing fragments. If in addition to these sites, an uncapped surface oxygen (Lewis base) site is also available, the carbon-containing moiety can then move that site, coordinate itself with that uncapped oxygen, and stabilize itself. At a later step, the carbon-containing fragment may form a strong covalent bond with the uncapped oxygen and may even abstract that surface oxygen. On the other hand, if an uncapped oxygen is not available to stabilize the carbon-containing fragment, the surface coordination will not occur and upon the subsequent thermal annealing of the surface the Cl-adatoms and the carbon-containing fragments will recombine and desorb as CCl4. Finally, the presence of surface deuteroxyls blocking the strong Lewis acid and base sites of the reactive surface, passivates this surface. Such a deuteroxylated surface will be unreactive towards CCl 4. Such a molecular level understanding of the surface chemistry of metal-oxides will have applications in the areas of selective catalysis, including environmental catalysis, and chemical sensor technology.

  4. Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Giang T.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Sóbester, András; Challenor, Peter

    2018-04-01

    Climate model components involve both high-dimensional input and output fields. It is desirable to efficiently generate spatio-temporal outputs of these models for applications in integrated assessment modelling or to assess the statistical relationship between such sets of inputs and outputs, for example, uncertainty analysis. However, the need for efficiency often compromises the fidelity of output through the use of low complexity models. Here, we develop a technique which combines statistical emulation with a dimensionality reduction technique to emulate a wide range of outputs from an atmospheric general circulation model, PLASIM, as functions of the boundary forcing prescribed by the ocean component of a lower complexity climate model, GENIE-1. Although accurate and detailed spatial information on atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind speed is well beyond the capability of GENIE-1's energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere, this study demonstrates that the output of this model is useful in predicting PLASIM's spatio-temporal fields through multi-level emulation. Meaningful information from the fast model, GENIE-1 was extracted by utilising the correlation between variables of the same type in the two models and between variables of different types in PLASIM. We present here the construction and validation of several PLASIM variable emulators and discuss their potential use in developing a hybrid model with statistical components.

  5. Looking Past Primary Productivity: Benchmarking System Processes that Drive Ecosystem Level Responses in Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

    2017-12-01

    As atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, it is critical that terrestrial ecosystem models can accurately predict ecological responses to the changing environment. Current predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration are highly variable and contain a considerable amount of uncertainty. Benchmarking model predictions against data are necessary to assess their ability to replicate observed patterns, but also to identify and evaluate the assumptions causing inter-model differences. We have implemented a novel benchmarking workflow as part of the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) that is automated, repeatable, and generalized to incorporate different sites and ecological models. Building on the recent Free-Air CO2 Enrichment Model Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS) project, we used observational data from the FACE experiments to test this flexible, extensible benchmarking approach aimed at providing repeatable tests of model process representation that can be performed quickly and frequently. Model performance assessments are often limited to traditional residual error analysis; however, this can result in a loss of critical information. Models that fail tests of relative measures of fit may still perform well under measures of absolute fit and mathematical similarity. This implies that models that are discounted as poor predictors of ecological productivity may still be capturing important patterns. Conversely, models that have been found to be good predictors of productivity may be hiding error in their sub-process that result in the right answers for the wrong reasons. Our suite of tests have not only highlighted process based sources of uncertainty in model productivity calculations, they have also quantified the patterns and scale of this error. Combining these findings with PEcAn's model sensitivity analysis and variance decomposition strengthen our ability to identify which processes

  6. A cross-comparison of different techniques for modeling macro-level cyclist crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yanyong; Osama, Ahmed; Sayed, Tarek

    2018-04-01

    Despite the recognized benefits of cycling as a sustainable mode of transportation, cyclists are considered vulnerable road users and there are concerns about their safety. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the factors affecting cyclist safety. The goal of this study is to evaluate and compare different approaches of modeling macro-level cyclist safety as well as investigating factors that contribute to cyclist crashes using a comprehensive list of covariates. Data from 134 traffic analysis zones (TAZs) in the City of Vancouver were used to develop macro-level crash models (CM) incorporating variables related to actual traffic exposure, socio-economics, land use, built environment, and bike network. Four types of CMs were developed under a full Bayesian framework: Poisson lognormal model (PLN), random intercepts PLN model (RIPLN), random parameters PLN model (RPPLN), and spatial PLN model (SPLN). The SPLN model had the best goodness of fit, and the results highlighted the significant effects of spatial correlation. The models showed that the cyclist crashes were positively associated with bike and vehicle exposure measures, households, commercial area density, and signal density. On the other hand, negative associations were found between cyclist crashes and some bike network indicators such as average edge length, average zonal slope, and off-street bike links. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Modeling in low-level radioactive waste management from the US Geological Survey perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, J.B.

    1980-01-01

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) is a long-standing proponent of using models as tools in geohydrologic investigations. These models vary from maps and core samples to elaborate digital computer algorithms, depending on the needed application and resources available. Being a non-regulatory scientific agency, the USGS uses models primarily for: improving modeling technology, testing hypotheses, management of water resources, providing technical advice to other agencies, parameter sensitivity analysis, and determination of parameter values (inverse problems). At low-level radioactive waste disposal sites, we are most interested in developing better capabilities for understanding the groundwater flor regime within and away from burial trenches, geochemical factors affecting nuclide concentration and mobility in groundwater, and the effects that various changes in the geohydrologic conditions have on groundwater flow and nuclide migration. Although the Geological Survey has modeling capabilities in a variety of complex problems, significant deficiencies and limitations remain in certain areas, such as fracture flow conditions and solute transport in the unsaturated zone. However, even more serious are the deficiencies in measuring or estimating adequate input data for models and verification of model utility on real problems. Flow and transport models are being used by the USGS in several low-level disposal site studies, with varying degrees of sucess

  8. A constitutive model and numerical simulation of sintering processes at macroscopic level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wawrzyk, Krzysztof; Kowalczyk, Piotr; Nosewicz, Szymon; Rojek, Jerzy

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents modelling of both single and double-phase powder sintering processes at the macroscopic level. In particular, its constitutive formulation, numerical implementation and numerical tests are described. The macroscopic constitutive model is based on the assumption that the sintered material is a continuous medium. The parameters of the constitutive model for material under sintering are determined by simulation of sintering at the microscopic level using a micro-scale model. Numerical tests were carried out for a cylindrical specimen under hydrostatic and uniaxial pressure. Results of macroscopic analysis are compared against the microscopic model results. Moreover, numerical simulations are validated by comparison with experimental results. The simulations and preparation of the model are carried out by Abaqus FEA - a software for finite element analysis and computer-aided engineering. A mechanical model is defined by the user procedure "Vumat" which is developed by the first author in Fortran programming language. Modelling presented in the paper can be used to optimize and to better understand the process.

  9. The application of a Grey Markov Model to forecasting annual maximum water levels at hydrological stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Sheng; Chi, Kun; Zhang, Qiyi; Zhang, Xiangdong

    2012-03-01

    Compared with traditional real-time forecasting, this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model (GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area. The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model. The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values, and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information. The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps: 1) establish the GM (1, 1) model based on the data series; 2) estimate the trend values; 3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series; 4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2, and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation; 5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy. The historical water level records (from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin, China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps. Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence. Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data. The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary. The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable. The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.

  10. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roshan GholamReza

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978 has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006 and future (2025-2100 time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3. The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21. The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82 between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  11. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Moghbel, Masumeh; Grab, Stefan

    2012-12-12

    The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978) has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006) and future (2025-2100) time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3). The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site) has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21). The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82) between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm) over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm) by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  12. Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H; Zervas, Chris E

    2012-01-01

    Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts. (letter)

  13. A system-level cost-of-energy wind farm layout optimization with landowner modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Le; MacDonald, Erin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We model the role of landowners in determining the success of wind projects. • A cost-of-energy (COE) model with realistic landowner remittances is developed. • These models are included in a system-level wind farm layout optimization. • Basic verification indicates the optimal COE is in-line with real-world data. • Land plots crucial to a project’s success can be identified with the approach. - Abstract: This work applies an enhanced levelized wind farm cost model, including landowner remittance fees, to determine optimal turbine placements under three landowner participation scenarios and two land-plot shapes. Instead of assuming a continuous piece of land is available for the wind farm construction, as in most layout optimizations, the problem formulation represents landowner participation scenarios as a binary string variable, along with the number of turbines. The cost parameters and model are a combination of models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Windustry. The system-level cost-of-energy (COE) optimization model is also tested under two land-plot shapes: equally-sized square land plots and unequal rectangle land plots. The optimal COEs results are compared to actual COE data and found to be realistic. The results show that landowner remittances account for approximately 10% of farm operating costs across all cases. Irregular land-plot shapes are easily handled by the model. We find that larger land plots do not necessarily receive higher remittance fees. The model can help site developers identify the most crucial land plots for project success and the optimal positions of turbines, with realistic estimates of costs and profitability

  14. Microscopic calculation of level densities: the shell model Monte Carlo approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alhassid, Yoram

    2012-01-01

    The shell model Monte Carlo (SMMC) approach provides a powerful technique for the microscopic calculation of level densities in model spaces that are many orders of magnitude larger than those that can be treated by conventional methods. We discuss a number of developments: (i) Spin distribution. We used a spin projection method to calculate the exact spin distribution of energy levels as a function of excitation energy. In even-even nuclei we find an odd-even staggering effect (in spin). Our results were confirmed in recent analysis of experimental data. (ii) Heavy nuclei. The SMMC approach was extended to heavy nuclei. We have studied the crossover between vibrational and rotational collectivity in families of samarium and neodymium isotopes in model spaces of dimension approx. 10 29 . We find good agreement with experimental results for both state densities and 2 > (where J is the total spin). (iii) Collective enhancement factors. We have calculated microscopically the vibrational and rotational enhancement factors of level densities versus excitation energy. We find that the decay of these enhancement factors in heavy nuclei is correlated with the pairing and shape phase transitions. (iv) Odd-even and odd-odd nuclei. The projection on an odd number of particles leads to a sign problem in SMMC. We discuss a novel method to calculate state densities in odd-even and odd-odd nuclei despite the sign problem. (v) State densities versus level densities. The SMMC approach has been used extensively to calculate state densities. However, experiments often measure level densities (where levels are counted without including their spin degeneracies.) A spin projection method enables us to also calculate level densities in SMMC. We have calculated the SMMC level density of 162 Dy and found it to agree well with experiments

  15. Radon levels in dwellings in chalk terrain. Development and analysis of distributional and causal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killip, Ian Richmond

    2002-01-01

    This thesis investigates the range, distribution and causes of high radon levels in dwellings in the Brighton area of Southeast England. Indoor radon levels were measured in more than 1000 homes. The results show that high radon levels can arise in an area previously considered to offer low radon potential from local geological sources. Climate and building-related factors were found to affect significantly the radon levels in dwellings. Multiple regression was used to determine the influence of the various factors on indoor radon levels and an empirical model develop to predict indoor radon levels. The radon hazard, independent of building-related effects, was determined for each surveyed location by adjusting the radon measurement to that expected on the ground floor of a 'model' dwelling. This standardised set of radon levels was entered into a geographical information system (GIS) and related to surface geology. The geometric mean radon level for each lithological unit was plotted to produce a radon hazard map for the area. The highest radon levels were found to be associated with the youngest Chalk Formations, particularly where they meet overlying Tertiary deposits, and with Clay-with-Flints Quaternary deposits in the area. The results were also converted to the radon activity equivalent to that expected from the NRPB's standard dual-detector dwelling survey method and analysed by lognormal modelling to estimate the proportion of dwellings likely to exceed the UK Action Level of 200 Bq/m 3 for each lithological unit. The likely percentages of dwellings affected by radon thus obtained were mapped to lithological boundaries to produce a radon potential map. The radon hazard map and the empirical radon model facilitate the prediction of radon levels in dwellings of comparable construction and above similar geology and should further the understanding of the behaviour of radon gas in buildings to allow indoor radon concentrations to be controlled. The radon

  16. Positioning and number of nutritional levels in dose-response trials to estimate the optimal-level and the adjustment of the models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Augusto de Souza

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to evaluate the influence of the number and position of nutrient levels used in dose-response trials in the estimation of the optimal-level (OL and the goodness of fit on the models: quadratic polynomial (QP, exponential (EXP, linear response plateau (LRP and quadratic response plateau (QRP. It was used data from dose-response trials realized in FCAV-Unesp Jaboticabal considering the homogeneity of variances and normal distribution. The fit of the models were evaluated considered the following statistics: adjusted coefficient of determination (R²adj, coefficient of variation (CV and the sum of the squares of deviations (SSD.It was verified in QP and EXP models that small changes on the placement and distribution of the levels caused great changes in the estimation of the OL. The LRP model was deeply influenced by the absence or presence of the level between the response and stabilization phases (change in the straight to plateau. The QRP needed more levels on the response phase and the last level on stabilization phase to estimate correctly the plateau. It was concluded that the OL and the adjust of the models are dependent on the positioning and the number of the levels and the specific characteristics of each model, but levels defined near to the true requirement and not so spaced are better to estimate the OL.

  17. Modeling and Analysis on Radiological Safety Assessment of Low- and Intermediate Level Radioactive Waste Repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Jung, Jong Tae; Kang, Chul Hyung (and others)

    2008-04-15

    Modeling study and analysis for technical support for the safety and performance assessment of the low- and intermediate level (LILW) repository partially needed for radiological environmental impact reporting which is essential for the licenses for construction and operation of LILW has been fulfilled. Throughout this study such essential area for technical support for safety and performance assessment of the LILW repository and its licensing as gas generation and migration in and around the repository, risk analysis and environmental impact during transportation of LILW, biosphere modeling and assessment for the flux-to-dose conversion factors for human exposure as well as regional and global groundwater modeling and analysis has been carried out.

  18. Modeling and Analysis on Radiological Safety Assessment of Low- and Intermediate Level Radioactive Waste Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Jung, Jong Tae; Kang, Chul Hyung

    2008-04-01

    Modeling study and analysis for technical support for the safety and performance assessment of the low- and intermediate level (LILW) repository partially needed for radiological environmental impact reporting which is essential for the licenses for construction and operation of LILW has been fulfilled. Throughout this study such essential area for technical support for safety and performance assessment of the LILW repository and its licensing as gas generation and migration in and around the repository, risk analysis and environmental impact during transportation of LILW, biosphere modeling and assessment for the flux-to-dose conversion factors for human exposure as well as regional and global groundwater modeling and analysis has been carried out

  19. Models for estimation of service life of concrete barriers in low-level radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walton, J.C.; Plansky, L.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1990-09-01

    Concrete barriers will be used as intimate parts of systems for isolation of low level radioactive wastes subsequent to disposal. This work reviews mathematical models for estimating the degradation rate of concrete in typical service environments. The models considered cover sulfate attack, reinforcement corrosion, calcium hydroxide leaching, carbonation, freeze/thaw, and cracking. Additionally, fluid flow, mass transport, and geochemical properties of concrete are briefly reviewed. Example calculations included illustrate the types of predictions expected of the models. 79 refs., 24 figs., 6 tabs

  20. Modeling for speciation of radionuclides in waste packages with high-level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weyand, Torben; Bracke, Guido; Seher, Holger

    2016-10-01

    Based on a literature search on radioactive waste inventories adequate thermodynamic data for model inventories were derived for geochemical model calculations using PHREEQC in order to determine the solid phase composition of high-level radioactive wastes in different containers. The calculations were performed for different model inventories (PWR-MOX, PWR-UO2, BWR-MOX, BMR-UO2) assuming intact containers under reduction conditions. The effect of a defect in the container on the solid phase composition was considered in variation calculations assuming air contact induced oxidation.

  1. A system-level multiprocessor system-on-chip modeling framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Virk, Kashif Munir; Madsen, Jan

    2004-01-01

    We present a system-level modeling framework to model system-on-chips (SoC) consisting of heterogeneous multiprocessors and network-on-chip communication structures in order to enable the developers of today's SoC designs to take advantage of the flexibility and scalability of network-on-chip and...... SoC design. We show how a hand-held multimedia terminal, consisting of JPEG, MP3 and GSM applications, can be modeled as a multiprocessor SoC in our framework....

  2. Corrosion models for predictions of performance of high-level radioactive-waste containers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, J.C.; McCright, R.D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Gdowski, G.E. [KMI Energy Services, Livermore, CA (United States)

    1991-11-01

    The present plan for disposal of high-level radioactive waste in the US is to seal it in containers before emplacement in a geologic repository. A proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being evaluated for its suitability as a geologic repository. The containers will probably be made of either an austenitic or a copper-based alloy. Models of alloy degradation are being used to predict the long-term performance of the containers under repository conditions. The models are of uniform oxidation and corrosion, localized corrosion, and stress corrosion cracking, and are applicable to worst-case scenarios of container degradation. This paper reviews several of the models.

  3. High level model predictive control for plug-and-play process control with stability guaranty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michelsen, Axel Gottlieb; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    In this paper a method for designing a stabilizing high level model predictive controller for a hierarchical plug- and-play process is presented. This is achieved by abstracting the lower layers of the controller structure as low order models with uncertainty and by using a robust model predictive...... controller for generating the references for these. A simulation example, in which the actuators in a process control system are changed, is reported to show the potential of this approach for plug and play process control....

  4. Models for estimation of service life of concrete barriers in low-level radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walton, J.C.; Plansky, L.E.; Smith, R.W. (EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (USA))

    1990-09-01

    Concrete barriers will be used as intimate parts of systems for isolation of low level radioactive wastes subsequent to disposal. This work reviews mathematical models for estimating the degradation rate of concrete in typical service environments. The models considered cover sulfate attack, reinforcement corrosion, calcium hydroxide leaching, carbonation, freeze/thaw, and cracking. Additionally, fluid flow, mass transport, and geochemical properties of concrete are briefly reviewed. Example calculations included illustrate the types of predictions expected of the models. 79 refs., 24 figs., 6 tabs.

  5. Experiences of building a medical data acquisition system based on two-level modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bei; Li, Jianbin; Lan, Xiaoyun; An, Ying; Gao, Wuqiang; Jiang, Yuqiao

    2018-04-01

    Compared to traditional software development strategies, the two-level modeling approach is more flexible and applicable to build an information system in the medical domain. However, the standards of two-level modeling such as openEHR appear complex to medical professionals. This study aims to investigate, implement, and improve the two-level modeling approach, and discusses the experience of building a unified data acquisition system for four affiliated university hospitals based on this approach. After the investigation, we simplified the approach of archetype modeling and developed a medical data acquisition system where medical experts can define the metadata for their own specialties by using a visual easy-to-use tool. The medical data acquisition system for multiple centers, clinical specialties, and diseases has been developed, and integrates the functions of metadata modeling, form design, and data acquisition. To date, 93,353 data items and 6,017 categories for 285 specific diseases have been created by medical experts, and over 25,000 patients' information has been collected. OpenEHR is an advanced two-level modeling method for medical data, but its idea to separate domain knowledge and technical concern is not easy to realize. Moreover, it is difficult to reach an agreement on archetype definition. Therefore, we adopted simpler metadata modeling, and employed What-You-See-Is-What-You-Get (WYSIWYG) tools to further improve the usability of the system. Compared with the archetype definition, our approach lowers the difficulty. Nevertheless, to build such a system, every participant should have some knowledge in both medicine and information technology domains, as these interdisciplinary talents are necessary. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. An online-coupled NWP/ACT model with conserved Lagrangian levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, B.; Kaas, E.; Lauritzen, P. H.

    2012-04-01

    Numerical weather and climate modelling is under constant development. Semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian (SISL) models have proven to be numerically efficient in both short-range weather forecasts and climate models, due to the ability to use long time steps. Chemical/aerosol feedback mechanism are becoming more and more relevant in NWP as well as climate models, since the biogenic and anthropogenic emissions can have a direct effect on the dynamics and radiative properties of the atmosphere. To include chemical feedback mechanisms in the NWP models, on-line coupling is crucial. In 3D semi-Lagrangian schemes with quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinates the Lagrangian levels are remapped to Eulerian model levels each time step. This remapping introduces an undesirable tendency to smooth sharp gradients and creates unphysical numerical diffusion in the vertical distribution. A semi-Lagrangian advection method is introduced, it combines an inherently mass conserving 2D semi-Lagrangian scheme, with a SISL scheme employing both hybrid vertical coordinates and a fully Lagrangian vertical coordinate. This minimizes the vertical diffusion and thus potentially improves the simulation of the vertical profiles of moisture, clouds, and chemical constituents. Since the Lagrangian levels suffer from traditional Lagrangian limitations caused by the convergence and divergence of the flow, remappings to the Eulerian model levels are generally still required - but this need only be applied after a number of time steps - unless dynamic remapping methods are used. For this several different remapping methods has been implemented. The combined scheme is mass conserving, consistent, and multi-tracer efficient.

  7. System-level modeling for economic evaluation of geological CO2 storage in gas reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Finsterle, Stefan; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.

    2007-01-01

    One way to reduce the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate is to inject carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial sources into deep geological formations such as brine aquifers or depleted oil or gas reservoirs. Research is being conducted to improve understanding of factors affecting particular aspects of geological CO 2 storage (such as storage performance, storage capacity, and health, safety and environmental (HSE) issues) as well as to lower the cost of CO 2 capture and related processes. However, there has been less emphasis to date on system-level analyses of geological CO 2 storage that consider geological, economic, and environmental issues by linking detailed process models to representations of engineering components and associated economic models. The objective of this study is to develop a system-level model for geological CO 2 storage, including CO 2 capture and separation, compression, pipeline transportation to the storage site, and CO 2 injection. Within our system model we are incorporating detailed reservoir simulations of CO 2 injection into a gas reservoir and related enhanced production of methane. Potential leakage and associated environmental impacts are also considered. The platform for the system-level model is GoldSim [GoldSim User's Guide. GoldSim Technology Group; 2006, http://www.goldsim.com]. The application of the system model focuses on evaluating the feasibility of carbon sequestration with enhanced gas recovery (CSEGR) in the Rio Vista region of California. The reservoir simulations are performed using a special module of the TOUGH2 simulator, EOS7C, for multicomponent gas mixtures of methane and CO 2 . Using a system-level modeling approach, the economic benefits of enhanced gas recovery can be directly weighed against the costs and benefits of CO 2 injection

  8. A Multi-Level Model of Information Seeking in the Clinical Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Peter W.; Johnson, Stephen B.; Kaufman, David R.; Mendonça, Eneida A.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: Clinicians often have difficulty translating information needs into effective search strategies to find appropriate answers. Information retrieval systems employing an intelligent search agent that generates adaptive search strategies based on human search expertise could be helpful in meeting clinician information needs. A prerequisite for creating such systems is an information seeking model that facilitates the representation of human search expertise. The purpose of developing such a model is to provide guidance to information seeking system development and to shape an empirical research program. Design: The information seeking process was modeled as a complex problem-solving activity. After considering how similarly complex activities had been modeled in other domains, we determined that modeling context-initiated information seeking across multiple problem spaces allows the abstraction of search knowledge into functionally consistent layers. The knowledge layers were identified in the information science literature and validated through our observations of searches performed by health science librarians. Results: A hierarchical multi-level model of context-initiated information seeking is proposed. Each level represents (1) a problem space that is traversed during the online search process, and (2) a distinct layer of knowledge that is required to execute a successful search. Grand strategy determines what information resources will be searched, for what purpose, and in what order. The strategy level represents an overall approach for searching a single resource. Tactics are individual moves made to further a strategy. Operations are mappings of abstract intentions to information resource-specific concrete input. Assessment is the basis of interaction within the strategic hierarchy, influencing the direction of the search. Conclusion: The described multi-level model provides a framework for future research and the foundation for development of an

  9. Virtual Systems Pharmacology (ViSP software for mechanistic system-level model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey eErmakov

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Multiple software programs are available for designing and running large scale system-level pharmacology models used in the drug development process. Depending on the problem, scientists may be forced to use several modeling tools that could increase model development time, IT costs and so on. Therefore it is desirable to have a single platform that allows setting up and running large-scale simulations for the models that have been developed with different modeling tools. We developed a workflow and a software platform in which a model file is compiled into a self-contained executable that is no longer dependent on the software that was used to create the model. At the same time the full model specifics is preserved by presenting all model parameters as input parameters for the executable. This platform was implemented as a model agnostic, therapeutic area agnostic and web-based application with a database back-end that can be used to configure, manage and execute large-scale simulations for multiple models by multiple users. The user interface is designed to be easily configurable to reflect the specifics of the model and the user’s particular needs and the back-end database has been implemented to store and manage all aspects of the systems, such as Models, Virtual Patients, User Interface Settings, and Results. The platform can be adapted and deployed on an existing cluster or cloud computing environment. Its use was demonstrated with a metabolic disease systems pharmacology model that simulates the effects of two antidiabetic drugs, metformin and fasiglifam, in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

  10. An Object-Oriented Python Implementation of an Intermediate-Level Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J. W.

    2008-12-01

    The Neelin-Zeng Quasi-equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model (QTCM1) is a Fortran-based intermediate-level atmospheric model that includes simplified treatments of several physical processes, including a GCM-like convective scheme and a land-surface scheme with representations of different surface types, evaporation, and soil moisture. This model has been used in studies of the Madden-Julian oscillation, ENSO, and vegetation-atmosphere interaction effects on climate. Through the assumption of convective quasi-equilibrium in the troposphere, the QTCM1 is able to include full nonlinearity, resolve baroclinic disturbances, and generate a reasonable climatology, all at low computational cost. One year of simulation on a PC at 5.625 × 3.75 degree longitude-latitude resolution takes under three minutes of wall-clock time. The Python package qtcm implements the QTCM1 in a mixed-language environment that retains the speed of compiled Fortran while providing the benefits of Python's object-oriented framework and robust suite of utilities and datatypes. We describe key programming constructs used to create this modeling environment: the decomposition of model runs into Python objects, providing methods so visualization tools are attached to model runs, and the use of Python's mutable datatypes (lists and dictionaries) to implement the "run list" entity, which enables total runtime control of subroutine execution order and content. The result is an interactive modeling environment where the traditional sequence of "hypothesis → modeling → visualization and analysis" is opened up and made nonlinear and flexible. In this environment, science tasks such as parameter-space exploration and testing alternative parameterizations can be easily automated, without the need for multiple versions of the model code interacting with a bevy of makefiles and shell scripts. The environment also simplifies interfacing of the atmospheric model to other models (e.g., hydrologic models

  11. Detecting drawdowns masked by environmental stresses with water-level models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, C.A.; Halford, K.J.; Fenelon, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Detecting and quantifying small drawdown at observation wells distant from the pumping well greatly expands the characterized aquifer volume. However, this detection is often obscured by water level fluctuations such as barometric and tidal effects. A reliable analytical approach for distinguishing drawdown from nonpumping water-level fluctuations is presented and tested here. Drawdown is distinguished by analytically simulating all pumping and nonpumping water-level stresses simultaneously during the period of record. Pumping signals are generated with Theis models, where the pumping schedule is translated into water-level change with the Theis solution. This approach closely matched drawdowns simulated with a complex three-dimensional, hypothetical model and reasonably estimated drawdowns from an aquifer test conducted in a complex hydrogeologic system. Pumping-induced changes generated with a numerical model and analytical Theis model agreed (RMS as low as 0.007 m) in cases where pumping signals traveled more than 1 km across confining units and fault structures. Maximum drawdowns of about 0.05 m were analytically estimated from field investigations where environmental fluctuations approached 0.2 m during the analysis period.

  12. On the Perpetual American Put Options for Level Dependent Volatility Models with Jumps

    OpenAIRE

    Bayraktar, Erhan

    2007-01-01

    We prove that the perpetual American put option price of level dependent volatility model with compound Poisson jumps is convex and is the classical solution of its associated quasi-variational inequality, that it is $C^2$ except at the stopping boundary and that it is $C^1$ everywhere (i.e. the smooth pasting condition always holds).

  13. MKEM: a Multi-level Knowledge Emergence Model for mining undiscovered public knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Min

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since Swanson proposed the Undiscovered Public Knowledge (UPK model, there have been many approaches to uncover UPK by mining the biomedical literature. These earlier works, however, required substantial manual intervention to reduce the number of possible connections and are mainly applied to disease-effect relation. With the advancement in biomedical science, it has become imperative to extract and combine information from multiple disjoint researches, studies and articles to infer new hypotheses and expand knowledge. Methods We propose MKEM, a Multi-level Knowledge Emergence Model, to discover implicit relationships using Natural Language Processing techniques such as Link Grammar and Ontologies such as Unified Medical Language System (UMLS MetaMap. The contribution of MKEM is as follows: First, we propose a flexible knowledge emergence model to extract implicit relationships across different levels such as molecular level for gene and protein and Phenomic level for disease and treatment. Second, we employ MetaMap for tagging biological concepts. Third, we provide an empirical and systematic approach to discover novel relationships. Results We applied our system on 5000 abstracts downloaded from PubMed database. We performed the performance evaluation as a gold standard is not yet available. Our system performed with a good precision and recall and we generated 24 hypotheses. Conclusions Our experiments show that MKEM is a powerful tool to discover hidden relationships residing in extracted entities that were represented by our Substance-Effect-Process-Disease-Body Part (SEPDB model.

  14. A Study Investigating the Perceived Service Quality Levels of Sport Center Members: A Kano Model Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, Kadir; Polat, Ercan; Güzel, Pinar

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate sport center members' perceived service quality levels with a view to Kano customer expectations and requirements model. To that end, a descriptive approach and a correlational research design featuring survey method is adopted. Research group consists of 680 (300 women, 380 men) sport center members who…

  15. A Bi-Level Programming Model for the Railway Express Cargo Service Network Design Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boliang Lin

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Service network design is fundamentally crucial for railway express cargo transportation. The main challenge is to strike a balance between two conflicting objectives: low network setup costs and high expected operational incomes. Different configurations of these objectives will have different impacts on the quality of freight transportation services. In this paper, a bi-level programming model for the railway express cargo service network design problem is proposed. The upper-level model forms the optimal decisions in terms of the service characteristics, and the low-level model selects the service arcs for each commodity. The rail express cargo is strictly subject to the service commitment, the capacity restriction, flow balance constraints, and logical relationship constraints among the decisions variables. Moreover, linearization techniques are used to convert the lower-level model to a linear one so that it can be directly solved by a standard optimization solver. Finally, a real-world case study based on the Beijing–Guangzhou Railway Line is carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed solution approach.

  16. Simulation of the Low-Level-Jet by general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    To what degree is the low-level jet climatology and it`s impact on clouds and precipitation being captured by current general circulation models? It is hypothesised that a need for a pramaterization exists. This paper describes this parameterization need.

  17. Tiered Models of Integrated Academic and Behavioral Support: Effect of Implementation Level on Academic Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noltemeyer, Amity; Sansosti, Frank J.

    2012-01-01

    This exploratory study examined (a) Integrated Systems Model (ISM) implementation levels, and (b) the effect of implementation of the academic and behavioral components of ISM on student academic outcomes. Participants included 2,660 students attending six suburban elementary schools. Hierarchical linear regression was conducted using a control…

  18. How Levels of Interactivity in Tutorials Affect Students' Learning of Modeling Transportation Problems in a Spreadsheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seal, Kala Chand; Przasnyski, Zbigniew H.; Leon, Linda A.

    2010-01-01

    Do students learn to model OR/MS problems better by using computer-based interactive tutorials and, if so, does increased interactivity in the tutorials lead to better learning? In order to determine the effect of different levels of interactivity on student learning, we used screen capture technology to design interactive support materials for…

  19. Sensitivity analysis of ground level ozone in India using WRF-CMAQ models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sharma, Sumit; Chatani, Satoru; Mahtta, Richa; Goel, Anju; Kumar, Atul

    2016-01-01

    Ground level ozone is emerging as a pollutant of concern in India. Limited surface monitoring data reveals that ozone concentrations are well above the prescribed national standards. This study aims to simulate the regional and urban scale ozone concentrations in India using WRF-CMAQ models.

  20. A system-level modelling perspective of the KwaZulu-Natal Bight ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Requirements to take the hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and first ecosystem modelling efforts towards a meaningful predictive capability are discussed. The importance of adopting a system-level view of the bight and its connected systems for realistic exploration of global change scenarios is highlighted. Keywords: ...

  1. Nonclassical Effects of a Four-Level Excited-Doublet Atom Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jiansong; Xu Jingbo

    2006-01-01

    We adopt a dynamical algebraic method to study a four-level excited-doublet atom model and obtain the explicit expressions of the time-evolution operator and the density operator for the system. The nonclassical effects of the system, such as collapses and revivals of the atomic inversion and squeezing of the radiation field, are also discussed.

  2. Modelling Morphological Response of Large Tidal Inlet Systems to Sea Level Rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dissanayake, P.K.

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation qualitatively investigates the morphodynamic response of a large inlet system to IPCC projected relative sea level rise (RSLR). Adopted numerical approach (Delft3D) used a highly schematised model domain analogous to the Ameland inlet in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Predicted inlet

  3. A Systematic Approach for Identifying Level-1 Error Covariance Structures in Latent Growth Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Cherng G.; Jane, Ten-Der; Wu, Chiu-Hui; Lin, Hang-Rung; Shen, Chih-Kang

    2017-01-01

    It has been pointed out in the literature that misspecification of the level-1 error covariance structure in latent growth modeling (LGM) has detrimental impacts on the inferences about growth parameters. Since correct covariance structure is difficult to specify by theory, the identification needs to rely on a specification search, which,…

  4. Temporal Synchronization Analysis for Improving Regression Modeling of Fecal Indicator Bacteria Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Multiple linear regression models are often used to predict levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in recreational swimming waters based on independent variables (IVs) such as meteorologic, hydrodynamic, and water-quality measures. The IVs used for these analyses are traditiona...

  5. Modeling the transmitted and stored energy in multilayer protective clothing under low-level radiant exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su, Yun; He, Jiazhen; Li, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A numerical model from heating source to skin tissues through multilayer fabric system is developed. • The numerical model is comprehensively validated with experimental data. • The model is used to investigate the relationship between the transmitted and stored energy and the influencing factors. - Abstract: A finite difference model was introduced to simulate the transmitted and stored energy in firefighters' protective clothing exposed to low-level thermal radiation. The model domain consists of a three-layer fire-resistant fabric system (outer shell, moisture barrier, and thermal liner), the human skin, and the air gap between clothing and the skin. The model accounted for the relationship between the transmitted heat during the exposure and the discharged heat during the cooling-down period. The numerical model predictions were compared with experimental data. Additionally, the parameters that affect the transmitted and stored energy of protective clothing were investigated. The results demonstrate that for the typical multilayer firefighter protective clothing, the transmitted heat during exposure and the discharged heat after exposure totally determine the skin burn under low-level heat exposure, especially for third-degree skin burns. The findings obtained in this study can be used to engineer fabric systems that provide better protection for the stored thermal burn.

  6. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model for Fentanyl in support of the development of Provisional Advisory Levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shankaran, Harish; Adeshina, Femi; Teeguarden, Justin G.

    2013-01-01

    Provisional Advisory Levels (PALs) are tiered exposure limits for toxic chemicals in air and drinking water that are developed to assist in emergency responses. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling can support this process by enabling extrapolations across doses, and exposure routes, thereby addressing gaps in the available toxicity data. Here, we describe the development of a PBPK model for Fentanyl – a synthetic opioid used clinically for pain management – to support the establishment of PALs. Starting from an existing model for intravenous Fentanyl, we first optimized distribution and clearance parameters using several additional IV datasets. We then calibrated the model using pharmacokinetic data for various formulations, and determined the absorbed fraction, F, and time taken for the absorbed amount to reach 90% of its final value, t90. For aerosolized pulmonary Fentanyl, F = 1 and t90 50 human datasets. • Model predictions are in good agreement with the available pharmacokinetic data. • The model can be used for extrapolating across routes, doses and exposure durations. • We illustrate how the model can be used for developing Provisional Advisory Levels

  7. Big data privacy protection model based on multi-level trusted system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nan; Liu, Zehua; Han, Hongfeng

    2018-05-01

    This paper introduces and inherit the multi-level trusted system model that solves the Trojan virus by encrypting the privacy of user data, and achieve the principle: "not to read the high priority hierarchy, not to write the hierarchy with low priority". Thus ensuring that the low-priority data privacy leak does not affect the disclosure of high-priority data privacy. This paper inherits the multi-level trustworthy system model of Trojan horse and divides seven different risk levels. The priority level 1˜7 represent the low to high value of user data privacy, and realize seven kinds of encryption with different execution efficiency Algorithm, the higher the priority, the greater the value of user data privacy, at the expense of efficiency under the premise of choosing a more encrypted encryption algorithm to ensure data security. For enterprises, the price point is determined by the unit equipment users to decide the length of time. The higher the risk sub-group algorithm, the longer the encryption time. The model assumes that users prefer the lower priority encryption algorithm to ensure efficiency. This paper proposes a privacy cost model for each of the seven risk subgroups. Among them, the higher the privacy cost, the higher the priority of the risk sub-group, the higher the price the user needs to pay to ensure the privacy of the data. Furthermore, by introducing the existing pricing model of economics and the human traffic model proposed by this paper and fluctuating with the market demand, this paper improves the price of unit products when the market demand is low. On the other hand, when the market demand increases, the profit of the enterprise will be guaranteed under the guidance of the government by reducing the price per unit of product. Then, this paper introduces the dynamic factors of consumers' mood and age to optimize. At the same time, seven algorithms are selected from symmetric and asymmetric encryption algorithms to define the enterprise

  8. Glass Property Data and Models for Estimating High-Level Waste Glass Volume

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vienna, John D.; Fluegel, Alexander; Kim, Dong-Sang; Hrma, Pavel R.

    2009-10-05

    This report describes recent efforts to develop glass property models that can be used to help estimate the volume of high-level waste (HLW) glass that will result from vitrification of Hanford tank waste. The compositions of acceptable and processable HLW glasses need to be optimized to minimize the waste-form volume and, hence, to save cost. A database of properties and associated compositions for simulated waste glasses was collected for developing property-composition models. This database, although not comprehensive, represents a large fraction of data on waste-glass compositions and properties that were available at the time of this report. Glass property-composition models were fit to subsets of the database for several key glass properties. These models apply to a significantly broader composition space than those previously publised. These models should be considered for interim use in calculating properties of Hanford waste glasses.

  9. Glass Property Data and Models for Estimating High-Level Waste Glass Volume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vienna, John D.; Fluegel, Alexander; Kim, Dong-Sang; Hrma, Pavel R.

    2009-01-01

    This report describes recent efforts to develop glass property models that can be used to help estimate the volume of high-level waste (HLW) glass that will result from vitrification of Hanford tank waste. The compositions of acceptable and processable HLW glasses need to be optimized to minimize the waste-form volume and, hence, to save cost. A database of properties and associated compositions for simulated waste glasses was collected for developing property-composition models. This database, although not comprehensive, represents a large fraction of data on waste-glass compositions and properties that were available at the time of this report. Glass property-composition models were fit to subsets of the database for several key glass properties. These models apply to a significantly broader composition space than those previously publised. These models should be considered for interim use in calculating properties of Hanford waste glasses.

  10. Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang

    2017-08-01

    User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

  11. A Bayesian random effects discrete-choice model for resource selection: Population-level selection inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, D.L.; Johnson, D.; Griffith, B.

    2006-01-01

    Modeling the probability of use of land units characterized by discrete and continuous measures, we present a Bayesian random-effects model to assess resource selection. This model provides simultaneous estimation of both individual- and population-level selection. Deviance information criterion (DIC), a Bayesian alternative to AIC that is sample-size specific, is used for model selection. Aerial radiolocation data from 76 adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and calf pairs during 1 year on an Arctic coastal plain calving ground were used to illustrate models and assess population-level selection of landscape attributes, as well as individual heterogeneity of selection. Landscape attributes included elevation, NDVI (a measure of forage greenness), and land cover-type classification. Results from the first of a 2-stage model-selection procedure indicated that there is substantial heterogeneity among cow-calf pairs with respect to selection of the landscape attributes. In the second stage, selection of models with heterogeneity included indicated that at the population-level, NDVI and land cover class were significant attributes for selection of different landscapes by pairs on the calving ground. Population-level selection coefficients indicate that the pairs generally select landscapes with higher levels of NDVI, but the relationship is quadratic. The highest rate of selection occurs at values of NDVI less than the maximum observed. Results for land cover-class selections coefficients indicate that wet sedge, moist sedge, herbaceous tussock tundra, and shrub tussock tundra are selected at approximately the same rate, while alpine and sparsely vegetated landscapes are selected at a lower rate. Furthermore, the variability in selection by individual caribou for moist sedge and sparsely vegetated landscapes is large relative to the variability in selection of other land cover types. The example analysis illustrates that, while sometimes computationally intense, a

  12. Shell model calculations for levels and transition rates in 204Pb and 206Pb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, D.; McEllistrem, M.T.

    1990-01-01

    Level energies and decay rates of both negative and positive parity levels of 206,204 Pb have been calculated through mixed-configuration shell model calculations using the modified surface delta interaction (MSDI), the Schiffer-True central interaction, and another two-body interaction. These calculations were all carried out with a full six-orbit neutron hole space. The predicted low-lying levels with the MSDI are in excellent agreement with experiments, accounting for the energies, spins, and parities of essentially all levels below 3 MeV excitation energy except known particle-hole collective excitations in both nuclei. Almost all calculated E2 and M1 transition rates are consistent with measured branching ratios for γ-ray decay of excited levels. The comparison of the observed and calculated levels demonstrates the important role played by the neutron-hole i 13/2 configuration in the levels of 204 Pb and 206 Pb, and interprets an apparent discrepancy over the character and energy spacings of 0 + levels in 204 Pb

  13. Modeling per capita state health expenditure variation: state-level characteristics matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuckler, Gigi; Sisko, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the methods underlying the econometric model developed by the Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, to explain differences in per capita total personal health care spending by state, as described in Cuckler, et al. (2011). Additionally, we discuss many alternative model specifications to provide additional insights for valid interpretation of the model. We study per capita personal health care spending as measured by the State Health Expenditures, by State of Residence for 1991-2009, produced by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' Office of the Actuary. State-level demographic, health status, economic, and health economy characteristics were gathered from a variety of U.S. government sources, such as the Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Centers for Disease Control, the American Hospital Association, and HealthLeaders-InterStudy. State-specific factors, such as income, health care capacity, and the share of elderly residents, are important factors in explaining the level of per capita personal health care spending variation among states over time. However, the slow-moving nature of health spending per capita and close relationships among state-level factors create inefficiencies in modeling this variation, likely resulting in incorrectly estimated standard errors. In addition, we find that both pooled and fixed effects models primarily capture cross-sectional variation rather than period-specific variation.

  14. Metabolic level recognition of progesterone in dairy Holstein cows using probabilistic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludmila N. Turino

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Administration of exogenous progesterone is widely used in hormonal protocols for estrous (resynchronization of dairy cattle without regarding pharmacological issues for dose calculation. This happens because it is difficult to estimate the metabolic level of progesterone for each individual cow before administration. In the present contribution, progesterone pharmacokinetics has been determined in lactating Holstein cows with different milk production yields. A Bayesian approach has been implemented to build two probabilistic progesterone pharmacokinetic models for high and low yield dairy cows. Such models are based on a one-compartment Hill structure. Posterior probabilistic models have been structurally set up and parametric probability density functions have been empirically estimated. Moreover, a global sensitivity analysis has been done to know sensitivity profile of each model. Finally, posterior probabilistic models have adequately recognized cow’s progesterone metabolic level in a validation set when Kullback-Leibler based indices were used. These results suggest that milk yield may be a good index for estimating pharmacokinetic level of progesterone.

  15. Using a High-Performance Planning Model to Increase Levels of Functional Effectiveness Within Professional Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Peggi

    2016-01-01

    Nursing professional practice models continue to shape how we practice nursing by putting families and members at the heart of everything we do. Faced with enormous challenges around healthcare reform, models create frameworks for practice by unifying, uniting, and guiding our nurses. The Kaiser Permanente Practice model was developed to ensure consistency for nursing practice across the continuum. Four key pillars support this practice model and the work of nursing: quality and safety, leadership, professional development, and research/evidence-based practice. These four pillars form the foundation that makes transformational practice possible and aligns nursing with Kaiser Permanente's mission. The purpose of this article is to discuss the pillar of professional development and the components of the Nursing Professional Development: Scope and Standards of Practice model (American Nurses Association & National Nursing Staff Development Organization, 2010) and place them in a five-level development framework. This process allowed us to identify the current organizational level of practice, prioritize each nursing professional development component, and design an operational strategy to move nursing professional development toward a level of high performance. This process is suggested for nursing professional development specialists.

  16. Neutron-capture gamma-ray study of levels in 135Ba and description of nuclear levels in the interacting-boson-fermion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chrien, R.E.; Koene, B.K.S.; Stelts, M.L.; Meyer, R.A.; Brant, S.; Paar, V.; Lopac, V.

    1993-01-01

    We have performed neutron-capture gamma-ray studies on natural and enriched targets of 134 Ba in order to investigate the nuclear levels of 135 Ba. The low-energy level spectra were compared with the calculations using the interacting-boson-fermion model (IBFM) and the cluster-vibration model. The level densities up to 5 MeV that are calculated within the IBFM are in accordance with the constant temperature Fermi gas model. From the spin distribution we have determined the corresponding spin cutoff parameter σ and compared it to the prediction from nuclear systematics

  17. Comparison of atomic-level and coarse-grained models for liquid hydrocarbons from molecular dynamics configurational entropy estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baron, R; de Vries, AH; Hunenberger, PH; van Gunsteren, WF

    2006-01-01

    Molecular liquids can be modeled at different levels of spatial resolution. In atomic-level (AL) models, all (heavy) atoms can be explicitly simulated. In coarse-grained (CG) models, particles (beads) that represent groups of covalently bound atoms are used as elementary units. Ideally, a CG model

  18. Designing Leadership models in a Three Level Unlimited Supply Chain: Non-Cooperative Game Theory Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Jaafarnehad

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The role and importance of supply chain management, has faced with many challenges and problems. Although a comprehensive model of supply chain issues, has not been explained, we have to indicate that issues such as reviewing the theoretical foundations of information systems, marketing, financial management, logistical and organizational relations have been considered by many researchers. The objective of supply chain management is to improve various activities and components to increase overall supply chain system benefits. In order to achieve the overall objectives, many contradictions may occur between the components and different levels of supply chain and the contradictions that these disorders over time, result in decreased strength and competitiveness of the supply chain. Such conflicts, like marketing costs (advertising, pricing and inventory can occur during the supply chain life cycle. A Game Theory approach with respect to property is the appropriate tool for collaboration in the supply chain. This tool is used for collaborative making in any kind of supply chain such as cooperative supply chain and non-cooperative supply chain. In the present study and assuming a lack of cooperation between different levels of a supply chain, a dynamic game with complete information has been generated. In addition identifying appropriate leaders of various levels of the supply chain is considered. Non-Cooperative dynamic game mode (Stackelberg Game, for each of the three levels of supply chain including retailers, suppliers and manufacturers are modeled. Depending on the bargaining power and its position in the market, any level of supply chain can make a leader of the following rule. In the present study, the equilibrium model to play Stackelberg game may be led by a leader or leading players and ultimately identifying and modeling the appropriate unlimited three level supply chain are determined.

  19. Using observation-level random effects to model overdispersion in count data in ecology and evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier A. Harrison

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Overdispersion is common in models of count data in ecology and evolutionary biology, and can occur due to missing covariates, non-independent (aggregated data, or an excess frequency of zeroes (zero-inflation. Accounting for overdispersion in such models is vital, as failing to do so can lead to biased parameter estimates, and false conclusions regarding hypotheses of interest. Observation-level random effects (OLRE, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that models the extra-Poisson variation present in the data, are commonly employed to cope with overdispersion in count data. However studies investigating the efficacy of observation-level random effects as a means to deal with overdispersion are scarce. Here I use simulations to show that in cases where overdispersion is caused by random extra-Poisson noise, or aggregation in the count data, observation-level random effects yield more accurate parameter estimates compared to when overdispersion is simply ignored. Conversely, OLRE fail to reduce bias in zero-inflated data, and in some cases increase bias at high levels of overdispersion. There was a positive relationship between the magnitude of overdispersion and the degree of bias in parameter estimates. Critically, the simulations reveal that failing to account for overdispersion in mixed models can erroneously inflate measures of explained variance (r2, which may lead to researchers overestimating the predictive power of variables of interest. This work suggests use of observation-level random effects provides a simple and robust means to account for overdispersion in count data, but also that their ability to minimise bias is not uniform across all types of overdispersion and must be applied judiciously.

  20. Modeling Speech Level as a Function of Background Noise Level and Talker-to-Listener Distance for Talkers Wearing Hearing Protection Devices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bouserhal, Rachel E.; Bockstael, Annelies; MacDonald, Ewen

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Studying the variations in speech levels with changing background noise level and talker-to-listener distance for talkers wearing hearing protection devices (HPDs) can aid in understanding communication in background noise. Method: Speech was recorded using an intra-aural HPD from 12...... complements the existing model presented by Pelegrín-García, Smits, Brunskog, and Jeong (2011) and expands on it by taking into account the effects of occlusion and background noise level on changes in speech sound level. Conclusions: Three models of the relationship between vocal effort, background noise...

  1. A model for assessing the risk of human trafficking on a local level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colegrove, Amanda

    Human trafficking is a human rights violation that is difficult to quantify. Models for estimating the number of victims of trafficking presented by previous researchers depend on inconsistent, poor quality data. As an intermediate step to help current efforts by nonprofits to combat human trafficking, this project presents a model that is not dependent on quantitative data specific to human trafficking, but rather profiles the risk of human trafficking at the local level through causative factors. Businesses, indicated by the literature, were weighted based on the presence of characteristics that increase the likelihood of trafficking in persons. The mean risk was calculated by census tract to reveal the multiplicity of risk levels in both rural and urban settings. Results indicate that labor trafficking may be a more diffuse problem in Missouri than sex trafficking. Additionally, spatial patterns of risk remained largely the same regardless of adjustments made to the model.

  2. Two-level mixed modeling of longitudinal pedigree data for genetic association analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tan, Q.

    2013-01-01

    of follow-up. Approaches have been proposed to integrate kinship correlation into the mixed effect models to explicitly model the genetic relationship which have been proven as an efficient way for dealing with sample clustering in pedigree data. Although useful for adjusting relatedness in the mixed...... assess the genetic associations with the mean level and the rate of change in a phenotype both with kinship correlation integrated in the mixed effect models. We apply our method to longitudinal pedigree data to estimate the genetic effects on systolic blood pressure measured over time in large pedigrees......Genetic association analysis on complex phenotypes under a longitudinal design involving pedigrees encounters the problem of correlation within pedigrees which could affect statistical assessment of the genetic effects on both the mean level of the phenotype and its rate of change over the time...

  3. Geostatistical modelling of carbon monoxide levels in Khartoum State (Sudan) - GIS pilot based study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alhuseen, A [Comenius University in Bratislava, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Dept. of Landscape Ecology, 84215 Bratislava (Slovakia); Madani, M [Ministry of Environment and Physical Development, 1111 Khartoum (Sudan)

    2012-04-25

    The objective of this study is to develop a digital GIS model; that can evaluate, predict and visualize carbon monoxide (CO) levels in Khartoum state. To achieve this aim, sample data had been collected, processed and managed to generate a dynamic GIS model of carbon monoxide levels in the study area. Parametric data collected from the field and analysis carried throughout this study show that (CO) emissions were lower than the allowable ambient air quality standards released by National Environment Protection Council (NEPC-USA) for 1998. However, this pilot study has found emissions of (CO) in Omdurman city were the highest. This pilot study shows that GIS and geostatistical modeling can be used as a powerful tool to produce maps of exposure. (authors)

  4. The biological model of postradiation restoration of plants on the organismic and population levels of organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanishvili, N.I.; Gogebashvili, M.E.

    2012-01-01

    Full text : When studying postradiating restoration of plants, the question of working out of biological models for testing of biosystems' reliability has become rather urgent. It is known that each organization level of a live organism is characterized by certain mechanisms of postradiating restoration at the formation of various radiobiological reactions. For example, the basic processes at cellular, tissue and organism levels are reparation and regeneration whereas at cenosis level the leading processes are often the forms of population restoration. Besides, in spite of the fact that the population restoration at cenosis level is continuously inked with restoration at the lower organization levels, at this level the specific forms of restoration characterized for only this level are seen. It is natural that studying of the mechanisms of response to the influence of damaging factors needs new methodological approaches on various forms of population restoration with the use of adequate test systems. For this purpose the species of duckweed was used. It was seen that this test-system is characterized by the two levels of response to radiation influence. The first one - at a rather low level of radiation influence (up to 50Gy) when decrease in intensity of leaf growth as well as in colony formation was observed and the second one - at a high level of radiation influence (up to 200Gy) when a crushing of colonies took place and an increase in quantity of undeveloped plant leaves was seen. Thus, thanks to the step character of response of culture duckweed it becomes possible to definite quantity indicators for the investigated populations, not only at the influence of concrete physical and chemical factors but also at multifactorial influences that is often difficult to be calculated. It can be concluded that at the first level of damage an increase of plant resistance to unfavorable factors takes place that is due to the inhibition of growth processes

  5. An artificial pancreas provided a novel model of blood glucose level variability in beagles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munekage, Masaya; Yatabe, Tomoaki; Kitagawa, Hiroyuki; Takezaki, Yuka; Tamura, Takahiko; Namikawa, Tsutomu; Hanazaki, Kazuhiro

    2015-12-01

    Although the effects on prognosis of blood glucose level variability have gained increasing attention, it is unclear whether blood glucose level variability itself or the manifestation of pathological conditions that worsen prognosis. Then, previous reports have not been published on variability models of perioperative blood glucose levels. The aim of this study is to establish a novel variability model of blood glucose concentration using an artificial pancreas. We maintained six healthy, male beagles. After anesthesia induction, a 20-G venous catheter was inserted in the right femoral vein and an artificial pancreas (STG-22, Nikkiso Co. Ltd., Tokyo, Japan) was connected for continuous blood glucose monitoring and glucose management. After achieving muscle relaxation, total pancreatectomy was performed. After 1 h of stabilization, automatic blood glucose control was initiated using the artificial pancreas. Blood glucose level varied for 8 h, alternating between the target blood glucose values of 170 and 70 mg/dL. Eight hours later, the experiment was concluded. Total pancreatectomy was performed for 62 ± 13 min. Blood glucose swings were achieved 9.8 ± 2.3 times. The average blood glucose level was 128.1 ± 5.1 mg/dL with an SD of 44.6 ± 3.9 mg/dL. The potassium levels after stabilization and at the end of the experiment were 3.5 ± 0.3 and 3.1 ± 0.5 mmol/L, respectively. In conclusion, the results of the present study demonstrated that an artificial pancreas contributed to the establishment of a novel variability model of blood glucose levels in beagles.

  6. Steady-State Plant Model to Predict Hydroden Levels in Power Plant Components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, Greg C.; Cable, Robert; Newmarker, Marc

    2017-06-27

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Acciona Energy North America developed a full-plant steady-state computational model that estimates levels of hydrogen in parabolic trough power plant components. The model estimated dissolved hydrogen concentrations in the circulating heat transfer fluid (HTF), and corresponding partial pressures within each component. Additionally for collector field receivers, the model estimated hydrogen pressure in the receiver annuli. The model was developed to estimate long-term equilibrium hydrogen levels in power plant components, and to predict the benefit of hydrogen mitigation strategies for commercial power plants. Specifically, the model predicted reductions in hydrogen levels within the circulating HTF that result from purging hydrogen from the power plant expansion tanks at a specified target rate. Our model predicted hydrogen partial pressures from 8.3 mbar to 9.6 mbar in the power plant components when no mitigation treatment was employed at the expansion tanks. Hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli were 8.3 to 8.4 mbar. When hydrogen partial pressure was reduced to 0.001 mbar in the expansion tanks, hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli fell to a range of 0.001 mbar to 0.02 mbar. When hydrogen partial pressure was reduced to 0.3 mbar in the expansion tanks, hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli fell to a range of 0.25 mbar to 0.28 mbar. Our results show that controlling hydrogen partial pressure in the expansion tanks allows us to reduce and maintain hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli to any practical level.

  7. Nitric oxide levels in the aqueous humor vary in different ocular hypertension experimental models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-Wen Lu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationships among intraocular pressure (IOP, nitric oxide (NO levels, and aqueous flow rates in experimental ocular hypertension models. A total of 75 rabbits were used. One of four different materials [i.e., α-chymotrypsin, latex microspheres (Polybead, red blood cell ghosts, or sodium hyaluronate (Healon GV] was injected into the eyes of the 15 animals in each experimental group; the remaining 15 rabbits were reserved for a control group. The IOP changes in the five groups were recorded on postinduction Days 1–3, Day 7, Day 14, Day 30, Day 60, Day 90, and Day 120. On postinduction Day 7, the dynamics and NO levels in the aqueous humor were recorded. Significant IOP elevations were induced by α-chymotrypsin (p < 0.01 and Polybead (p < 0.01 on each postinduction day. In the red blood cell ghosts model, significant elevations (p < 0.01 were found on postinduction Days 1–3; Healon GV significantly elevated IOP (p < 0.01 on postinduction Day 1 and Day 2. On postinduction Day 7, the aqueous humor NO levels increased significantly in the models of α-chymotrypsin, Polybead, and red blood cell ghosts (all p < 0.01, while the aqueous flow rates were significantly reduced in the models of α-chymotrypsin and Polybead (p < 0.005. Persistent ocular hypertension models were induced with α-chymotrypsin and Polybead in the rabbits. The Polybead model exhibited the characteristic of an increased aqueous humor NO level, similar to human eyes with acute angle-closure glaucoma and neovascular glaucoma.

  8. Modeling approaches for concrete barriers used in low-level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, R.R.; Walton, J.C.

    1993-11-01

    A series of three NUREGs and several papers addressing different aspects of modeling performance of concrete barriers for low-level radioactive waste disposal have been prepared previously for the Concrete Barriers Research Project. This document integrates the information from the previous documents into a general summary of models and approaches that can be used in performance assessments of concrete barriers. Models for concrete degradation, flow, and transport through cracked concrete barriers are discussed. The models for flow and transport assume that cracks have occurred and thus should only be used for later times in simulations after fully penetrating cracks are formed. Most of the models have been implemented in a computer code. CEMENT, that was developed concurrently with this document. User documentation for CEMENT is provided separate from this report. To avoid duplication, the reader is referred to the three previous NUREGs for detailed discussions of each of the mathematical models. Some additional information that was not presented in the previous documents is also included. Sections discussing lessons learned from applications to actual performance assessments of low-level waste disposal facilities are provided. Sensitive design parameters are emphasized to identify critical areas of performance for concrete barriers, and potential problems in performance assessments are also identified and discussed

  9. INTEGRATED SFM TECHNIQUES USING DATA SET FROM GOOGLE EARTH 3D MODEL AND FROM STREET LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Inzerillo

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Structure from motion (SfM represents a widespread photogrammetric method that uses the photogrammetric rules to carry out a 3D model from a photo data set collection. Some complex ancient buildings, such as Cathedrals, or Theatres, or Castles, etc. need to implement the data set (realized from street level with the UAV one in order to have the 3D roof reconstruction. Nevertheless, the use of UAV is strong limited from the government rules. In these last years, Google Earth (GE has been enriched with the 3D models of the earth sites. For this reason, it seemed convenient to start to test the potentiality offered by GE in order to extract from it a data set that replace the UAV function, to close the aerial building data set, using screen images of high resolution 3D models. Users can take unlimited “aerial photos” of a scene while flying around in GE at any viewing angle and altitude. The challenge is to verify the metric reliability of the SfM model carried out with an integrated data set (the one from street level and the one from GE aimed at replace the UAV use in urban contest. This model is called integrated GE SfM model (i-GESfM. In this paper will be present a case study: the Cathedral of Palermo.

  10. Modelling the economic impact of three lameness causing diseases using herd and cow level evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Jehan; Østergaard, Søren; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2010-06-01

    Diseases to the cow's hoof, interdigital skin and legs are highly prevalent and of large economic impact in modern dairy farming. In order to support farmer's decisions on preventing and treating lameness and its underlying causes, decision support models can be used to predict the economic profitability of such actions. An existing approach of modelling lameness as one health disorder in a dynamic, stochastic and mechanistic simulation model has been improved in two ways. First of all, three underlying diseases causing lameness were modelled: digital dermatitis, interdigital hyperplasia and claw horn diseases. Secondly, the existing simulation model was set-up in way that it uses hyper-distributions describing diseases risk of the three lameness causing diseases. By combining information on herd level risk factors with prevalence of lameness or prevalence of underlying diseases among cows, marginal posterior probability distributions for disease prevalence in the specific herd are created in a Bayesian network. Random draws from these distributions are used by the simulation model to describe disease risk. Hereby field data on prevalence is used systematically and uncertainty around herd specific risk is represented. Besides the fact that estimated profitability of halving disease risk depended on the hyper-distributions used, the estimates differed for herds with different levels of diseases risk and reproductive efficiency. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun-He; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Chan, Chia-Pan

    2017-01-01

    Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir's water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.

  12. A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-He Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir’s water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir’s water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.

  13. High-Level Waste Glass Formulation Model Sensitivity Study 2009 Glass Formulation Model Versus 1996 Glass Formulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belsher, J.D.; Meinert, F.L.

    2009-01-01

    This document presents the differences between two HLW glass formulation models (GFM): The 1996 GFM and 2009 GFM. A glass formulation model is a collection of glass property correlations and associated limits, as well as model validity and solubility constraints; it uses the pretreated HLW feed composition to predict the amount and composition of glass forming additives necessary to produce acceptable HLW glass. The 2009 GFM presented in this report was constructed as a nonlinear optimization calculation based on updated glass property data and solubility limits described in PNNL-18501 (2009). Key mission drivers such as the total mass of HLW glass and waste oxide loading are compared between the two glass formulation models. In addition, a sensitivity study was performed within the 2009 GFM to determine the effect of relaxing various constraints on the predicted mass of the HLW glass.

  14. Geographically weighted negative binomial regression applied to zonal level safety performance models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Marcos José Timbó Lima; Cunto, Flávio; da Silva, Alan Ricardo

    2017-09-01

    Generalized Linear Models (GLM) with negative binomial distribution for errors, have been widely used to estimate safety at the level of transportation planning. The limited ability of this technique to take spatial effects into account can be overcome through the use of local models from spatial regression techniques, such as Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR). Although GWPR is a system that deals with spatial dependency and heterogeneity and has already been used in some road safety studies at the planning level, it fails to account for the possible overdispersion that can be found in the observations on road-traffic crashes. Two approaches were adopted for the Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) model to allow discrete data to be modeled in a non-stationary form and to take note of the overdispersion of the data: the first examines the constant overdispersion for all the traffic zones and the second includes the variable for each spatial unit. This research conducts a comparative analysis between non-spatial global crash prediction models and spatial local GWPR and GWNBR at the level of traffic zones in Fortaleza/Brazil. A geographic database of 126 traffic zones was compiled from the available data on exposure, network characteristics, socioeconomic factors and land use. The models were calibrated by using the frequency of injury crashes as a dependent variable and the results showed that GWPR and GWNBR achieved a better performance than GLM for the average residuals and likelihood as well as reducing the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals, and the GWNBR model was more able to capture the spatial heterogeneity of the crash frequency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Experiment planning using high-level component models at W7-X

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewerentz, Marc; Spring, Anett; Bluhm, Torsten; Heimann, Peter; Hennig, Christine; Kühner, Georg; Kroiss, Hugo; Krom, Johannes G.; Laqua, Heike; Maier, Josef; Riemann, Heike; Schacht, Jörg; Werner, Andreas; Zilker, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Introduction of models for an abstract description of fusion experiments. ► Component models support creating feasible experiment programs at planning time. ► Component models contain knowledge about physical and technical constraints. ► Generated views on models allow to present crucial information. - Abstract: The superconducting stellarator Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) is a fusion device, which is capable of steady state operation. Furthermore W7-X is a very complex technical system. To cope with these requirements a modular and strongly hierarchical component-based control and data acquisition system has been designed. The behavior of W7-X is characterized by thousands of technical parameters of the participating components. The intended sequential change of those parameters during an experiment is defined in an experiment program. Planning such an experiment program is a crucial and complex task. To reduce the complexity an abstract, more physics-oriented high-level layer has been introduced earlier. The so-called high-level (physics) parameters are used to encapsulate technical details. This contribution will focus on the extension of this layer to a high-level component model. It completely describes the behavior of a component for a certain period of time. It allows not only defining simple value ranges but also complex dependencies between physics parameters. This can be: dependencies within components, dependencies between components or temporal dependencies. Component models can now be analyzed to generate various views of an experiment. A first implementation of such an analyze process is already finished. A graphical preview of a planned discharge can be generated from a chronological sequence of component models. This allows physicists to survey complex planned experiment programs at a glance.

  16. Development of a multimedia radionuclide exposure model for low-level waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Y.; Whelan, G.; Skaggs, R.L.

    1982-03-01

    A method is being developed for assessing exposures of the air, water, and plants to low-level waste (LLW) as a part of an overall development effort of a LLW site evaluation methodology. The assessment methodology will predict LLW exposure levels in the environment by simulating dominant mechanisms of LLW migration and fate. The methodology consists of a series of physics-based models with proven histories of success; the models interact with each other to simulate LLW transport in the ecosystem. A scaled-down version of the methodology was developed first by combining the terrestrial ecological model, BIOTRAN; the overland transport model, ARM; the instream hydrodynamic model, DKWAV; and the instream sediment-contaminant transport model, TODAM (a one-dimensional version of SERATRA). The methodology was used to simulate the migration of 239 Pu from a shallow-land disposal site (known as Area C) located near the head of South Mortandad Canyon on the LANL site in New Mexico. The scenario assumed that 239 Pu would be deposited on the land surface through the natural processes of plant growth, LLW uptake, dryfall, and litter decomposition. Runoff events would then transport 239 Pu to and in the canyon. The model provided sets of simulated LLW levels in soil, water and terrestrial plants in the region surrounding the site under a specified land-use and a waste management option. Over a 100-yr simulation period, only an extremely small quantity (6 x 10 -9 times the original concentration) of buried 239 Pu was taken up by plants and deposited on the land surface. Only a small fraction (approximately 1%) of that contamination was further removed by soil erosion from the site and carried to the canyon, where it remained. Hence, the study reveals that the environment around Area C has integrity high enough to curtail LLW migration under recreational land use

  17. Evaluating multi-level models to test occupancy state responses of Plethodontid salamanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Andrew J.; Garcia, Tiffany S.; Jones, Jay E.; Dugger, Catherine; Murden, Blake; Johnson, Josh; Peerman, Summer; Brintz, Ben; Rochelle, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Plethodontid salamanders are diverse and widely distributed taxa and play critical roles in ecosystem processes. Due to salamander use of structurally complex habitats, and because only a portion of a population is available for sampling, evaluation of sampling designs and estimators is critical to provide strong inference about Plethodontid ecology and responses to conservation and management activities. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the effectiveness of multi-scale and hierarchical single-scale occupancy models in the context of a Before-After Control-Impact (BACI) experimental design with multiple levels of sampling. Also, we fit the hierarchical single-scale model to empirical data collected for Oregon slender and Ensatina salamanders across two years on 66 forest stands in the Cascade Range, Oregon, USA. All models were fit within a Bayesian framework. Estimator precision in both models improved with increasing numbers of primary and secondary sampling units, underscoring the potential gains accrued when adding secondary sampling units. Both models showed evidence of estimator bias at low detection probabilities and low sample sizes; this problem was particularly acute for the multi-scale model. Our results suggested that sufficient sample sizes at both the primary and secondary sampling levels could ameliorate this issue. Empirical data indicated Oregon slender salamander occupancy was associated strongly with the amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = 0.74; SD = 0.24); Ensatina occupancy was not associated with amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = -0.01; SD = 0.29). Our simulation results indicate that either model is suitable for use in an experimental study of Plethodontid salamanders provided that sample sizes are sufficiently large. However, hierarchical single-scale and multi-scale models describe different processes and estimate different parameters. As a result, we recommend careful consideration of study questions

  18. Evaluating Multi-Level Models to Test Occupancy State Responses of Plethodontid Salamanders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J Kroll

    Full Text Available Plethodontid salamanders are diverse and widely distributed taxa and play critical roles in ecosystem processes. Due to salamander use of structurally complex habitats, and because only a portion of a population is available for sampling, evaluation of sampling designs and estimators is critical to provide strong inference about Plethodontid ecology and responses to conservation and management activities. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the effectiveness of multi-scale and hierarchical single-scale occupancy models in the context of a Before-After Control-Impact (BACI experimental design with multiple levels of sampling. Also, we fit the hierarchical single-scale model to empirical data collected for Oregon slender and Ensatina salamanders across two years on 66 forest stands in the Cascade Range, Oregon, USA. All models were fit within a Bayesian framework. Estimator precision in both models improved with increasing numbers of primary and secondary sampling units, underscoring the potential gains accrued when adding secondary sampling units. Both models showed evidence of estimator bias at low detection probabilities and low sample sizes; this problem was particularly acute for the multi-scale model. Our results suggested that sufficient sample sizes at both the primary and secondary sampling levels could ameliorate this issue. Empirical data indicated Oregon slender salamander occupancy was associated strongly with the amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = 0.74; SD = 0.24; Ensatina occupancy was not associated with amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = -0.01; SD = 0.29. Our simulation results indicate that either model is suitable for use in an experimental study of Plethodontid salamanders provided that sample sizes are sufficiently large. However, hierarchical single-scale and multi-scale models describe different processes and estimate different parameters. As a result, we recommend careful consideration of

  19. Physical modeling of joule heated ceramic glass melters for high level waste immobilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quigley, M.S.; Kreid, D.K.

    1979-03-01

    This study developed physical modeling techniques and apparatus suitable for experimental analysis of joule heated ceramic glass melters designed for immobilizing high level waste. The physical modeling experiments can give qualitative insight into the design and operation of prototype furnaces and, if properly verified with prototype data, the physical models could be used for quantitative analysis of specific furnaces. Based on evaluation of the results of this study, it is recommended that the following actions and investigations be undertaken: It was not shown that the isothermal boundary conditions imposed by this study established prototypic heat losses through the boundaries of the model. Prototype wall temperatures and heat fluxes should be measured to provide better verification of the accuracy of the physical model. The VECTRA computer code is a two-dimensional analytical model. Physical model runs which are isothermal in the Y direction should be made to provide two-dimensional data for more direct comparison to the VECTRA predictions. The ability of the physical model to accurately predict prototype operating conditions should be proven before the model can become a reliable design tool. This will require significantly more prototype operating and glass property data than were available at the time of this study. A complete set of measurements covering power input, heat balances, wall temperatures, glass temperatures, and glass properties should be attempted for at least one prototype run. The information could be used to verify both physical and analytical models. Particle settling and/or sludge buildup should be studied directly by observing the accumulation of the appropriate size and density particles during feeding in the physical model. New designs should be formulated and modeled to minimize the potential problems with melter operation identifed by this study

  20. Improving Water Resources Management on Global and Region Scales - Evaluating Strategies for Water Futures with the IIASA's Community Water Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, P.; Kahil, T.; Satoh, Y.; Greve, P.; Byers, E.; Langan, S.; Wada, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Half of the planet's population is severely impacted by severe water issues including absent or unreliable water supply, sanitation, poor water quality, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water environments. In recent years, global water security has been highlighted not only by the science community but also by business leaders as one of the greatest threats to sustainable human development for different generations. How can we ensure the well-being of people and ecosystems with limited water, technology and financial resources? To evaluate this, IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS) is identifying a portfolios of robust and cost-effective options across different economic sectors including agriculture, energy, manufacturing, households, and environment and ecosystems. Options to increase water supply and accessibility are evaluated together with water demand management and water governance options. To test these solution-portfolios in order to obtain a clear picture of the opportunities but also of the risks and the trade-offs we have developed the Community Water Model (CWATM) which joins IIASA's integrated assessment modeling framework, coupling hydrology with hydro-economics (ECHO model), energy (MESSAGE model) and land use (GLOBIOM model). CWATM has been developed to work flexibly with varying spatial resolutions from global to regional levels. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water and other science community worldwide, with flexibility to link to other models and integrate newly developed modules such as water quality. In order to identify the solution portfolios, we present a global hotspots assessment of water-related risks with the ability to zoom in at regional scale using the example of the Lake Victoria basin in E. Africa. We show how socio-economic and climate change will alter spatial patterns of the hydrological cycle and have regional impacts on water availability. At

  1. Parsimonious model for blood glucose level monitoring in type 2 diabetes patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Fang; Ma, Yan Fen; Wen, Jing Xiao; DU, Yan Fang; Li, Chun Lin; Li, Guang Wei

    2014-07-01

    To establish the parsimonious model for blood glucose monitoring in patients with type 2 diabetes receiving oral hypoglycemic agent treatment. One hundred and fifty-nine adult Chinese type 2 diabetes patients were randomized to receive rapid-acting or sustained-release gliclazide therapy for 12 weeks. Their blood glucose levels were measured at 10 time points in a 24 h period before and after treatment, and the 24 h mean blood glucose levels were measured. Contribution of blood glucose levels to the mean blood glucose level and HbA1c was assessed by multiple regression analysis. The correlation coefficients of blood glucose level measured at 10 time points to the daily MBG were 0.58-0.74 and 0.59-0.79, respectively, before and after treatment (Pblood glucose levels measured at 6 of the 10 time points could explain 95% and 97% of the changes in MBG before and after treatment. The three blood glucose levels, which were measured at fasting, 2 h after breakfast and before dinner, of the 10 time points could explain 84% and 86% of the changes in MBG before and after treatment, but could only explain 36% and 26% of the changes in HbA1c before and after treatment, and they had a poorer correlation with the HbA1c than with the 24 h MBG. The blood glucose levels measured at fasting, 2 h after breakfast and before dinner truly reflected the change 24 h blood glucose level, suggesting that they are appropriate for the self-monitoring of blood glucose levels in diabetes patients receiving oral anti-diabetes therapy. Copyright © 2014 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

  2. A Model for Assessing the Level of Walkability in Urban Neighborhoods in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gayani Ranasinghe

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The quality of the neighboring environment plays a major role in encouraging people to walk when attending their daily needs. Although past studies have identified a relationship between neighborhood design factors and the level of walkability, this interdependence is poorly understood in urban planning in Sri Lanka. The purpose of this study is to determine factors and conditions that influence walkability in a selected neighborhood in the town of Panadura and develop a model to predict what design factors enhance walkability in the neighborhood area. Ninety three (93 factors that affect the walkability in urban neighborhood were identified as the findings of the literature review of this study. Seventy six (76 walkability factors identified through perception surveys were examined within a 100m radius of 70 buffered circles representing 140 participants’ residences through a questionnaire survey and field observations. Chi-square and Bivariate correlation analysis were carried out to identify the most decisive factors for walkability. Multiple Linear Regression analysis was applied to develop a model to assess the level of walkability of residents in the selected area based on the most significant factors. The study has identified main nine variables that determine the level of walkability. Based on the significant values the model can be used to assess the level of walkability of the people in Sri Lankan context.

  3. Level of paranormal beliefs and its relationship with explanatory models, treatment adherence and satisfaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dushad Ram

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Paranormal beliefs are common among patients with mental illness. Such beliefs may mediate conceptualization of illness, treatment satisfaction and medication adherence. Objective To study the level of paranormal beliefs and its relationship with explanatory models, treatment adherence and satisfaction using standardized assessment tool. Methods Eighty nine patients with mental illness in remission were assessed with Sociodemographic proforma, Revised Paranormal Belief Scale (RPBS, Mental Distress Explanatory Model Questionnaire (MMAS, Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS and Short Assessment of Patient Satisfaction (SAPS. Results Results revealed a high level of paranormal beliefs on RPBS (Mean 83.96, SD ± 23.91. Variables that had a statistically significant group difference on the score of RPBS were domicile status (p < 05, diagnosis (p < 001, method of treatment sought before (p < 001. In a linear regression analysis four variables explained 35.4% of the variance (R2 = .38, R2Adjusted = .35, F = 13.04, p < .001 in RPBS Score. These variables were total score of MDEMQ (Beta = .308, t = 3.435, p < .001, total score of MMAS (beta = .357, t = 3. 716, p < .001 and magico-religious treatment received earlier (beta = .306, t = 3.52, p < .001 and SAPS. Discussion Based on the finding of this study, it may be concluded that the level of paranormal beliefs may vary with some demographic variables. Levels of paranormal beliefs is positively associated with explanatory models and adherence in patients with mental illness in remission.

  4. Agent-based model with multi-level herding for complex financial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun-Jie; Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo

    2015-02-01

    In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains challenging. We introduce a novel interaction mechanism, i.e., the multi-level herding, in constructing an agent-based model to investigate the sector structure combined with volatility clustering. According to the previous market performance, agents trade in groups, and their herding behavior comprises the herding at stock, sector and market levels. Further, we propose methods to determine the key model parameters from historical market data, rather than from statistical fitting of the results. From the simulation, we obtain the sector structure and volatility clustering, as well as the eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix, for the New York and Hong Kong stock exchanges. These properties are in agreement with the empirical ones. Our results quantitatively reveal that the multi-level herding is the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure, and provide new insight into the spatio-temporal interactions in financial systems at the microscopic level.

  5. Altered serotonin, dopamine and norepinepherine levels in 15q duplication and Angelman syndrome mouse models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Febin Farook

    Full Text Available Childhood neurodevelopmental disorders like Angelman syndrome and autism may be the result of underlying defects in neuronal plasticity and ongoing problems with synaptic signaling. Some of these defects may be due to abnormal monoamine levels in different regions of the brain. Ube3a, a gene that causes Angelman syndrome (AS when maternally deleted and is associated with autism when maternally duplicated has recently been shown to regulate monoamine synthesis in the Drosophila brain. Therefore, we examined monoamine levels in striatum, ventral midbrain, frontal cerebral cortex, cerebellar cortex and hippocampus in Ube3a deficient and Ube3a duplication animals. We found that serotonin (5HT, a monoamine affected in autism, was elevated in the striatum and cortex of AS mice. Dopamine levels were almost uniformly elevated compared to control littermates in the striatum, midbrain and frontal cortex regardless of genotype in Ube3a deficient and Ube3a duplication animals. In the duplication 15q autism mouse model, paternal but not maternal duplication animals showed a decrease in 5HT levels when compared to their wild type littermates, in accordance with previously published data. However, maternal duplication animals show no significant changes in 5HT levels throughout the brain. These abnormal monoamine levels could be responsible for many of the behavioral abnormalities observed in both AS and autism, but further investigation is required to determine if any of these changes are purely dependent on Ube3a levels in the brain.

  6. Predicting the Water Level Fluctuation in an Alpine Lake Using Physically Based, Artificial Neural Network, and Time Series Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Chieh Young

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of water level fluctuation is important in lake management due to its significant impacts in various aspects. This study utilizes four model approaches to predict water levels in the Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL in Taiwan: a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an artificial neural network (ANN model (back propagation neural network, BPNN, a time series forecasting (autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs, ARMAX model, and a combined hydrodynamic and ANN model. Particularly, the black-box ANN model and physically based hydrodynamic model are coupled to more accurately predict water level fluctuation. Hourly water level data (a total of 7296 observations was collected for model calibration (training and validation. Three statistical indicators (mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of correlation were adopted to evaluate model performances. Overall, the results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model can satisfactorily predict hourly water level changes during the calibration stage but not for the validation stage. The ANN and ARMAX models better predict the water level than the hydrodynamic model does. Meanwhile, the results from an ANN model are superior to those by the ARMAX model in both training and validation phases. The novel proposed concept using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in conjunction with an ANN model has clearly shown the improved prediction accuracy for the water level fluctuation.

  7. (Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruckert, K. L.; Guan, Y.; Shaffer, G.; Forest, C. E.; Keller, K.

    2015-12-01

    (Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level ChangesKelsey L. Ruckert1*, Yawen Guan2, Chris E. Forest1,3,7, Gary Shaffer 4,5,6, and Klaus Keller1,7,81 Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 2 Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 3 Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 4 GAIA_Antarctica, University of Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile 5 Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones, La Serena, Chile 6 Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark 7 Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 8 Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA * Corresponding author. E-mail klr324@psu.eduUnderstanding and projecting future sea-level changes poses nontrivial challenges. Sea-level changes are driven primarily by changes in the density of seawater as well as changes in the size of glaciers and ice sheets. Previous studies have demonstrated that a key source of uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections is the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to warming temperatures. Here we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple model of the Antarctic ice sheet over a hindcast period from the last interglacial period to the present. We apply and compare a range of (pre-) calibration methods, including a Bayesian approach that accounts for heteroskedasticity. We compare the model hindcasts and projections for different levels of model complexity and calibration methods. We compare the projections with the upper bounds from previous studies and find our projections have a narrower range in 2100. Furthermore we discuss the implications for the design of climate risk management strategies.

  8. Numerical Model of Fluid Flow through Heterogeneous Rock for High Level Radioactive Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirai, M.; Chiba, R.; Takahashi, T.; Hashida, T.; Fomin, S.; Chugunov, V.; Niibori, Y.

    2007-01-01

    An international consensus has emerged that deep geological disposal on land is one of the most appropriate means for high level radioactive wastes (HLW). The fluid transport is slow and radioactive elements are dangerous, so it's impossible to experiment over thousands of years. Instead, numerical model in such natural barrier as fractured underground needs to be considered. Field observations reveal that the equation with fractional derivative is more appropriate for describing physical phenomena than the equation which is based on the Fick's law. Thus, non-Fickian diffusion into inhomogeneous underground appears to be important in the assessment of HLW disposal. A solute transport equation with fractional derivative has been suggested and discussed in literature. However, no attempts were made to apply this equation for modeling of HLW disposal with account for the radioactive decay. In this study, we suggest the use of a novel fractional advection-diffusion equation which accounts for the effect of radioactive disintegration and for interactions between major, macro pores and fractal micro pores. This model is fundamentally different from previous proposed model of HLW, particularly in utilizing fractional derivative. Breakthrough curves numerically obtained by the present model are presented for a variety of rock types with respect to some important nuclides. Results of the calculation showed that for longer distance our model tends to be more conservative than the conventional Fickian model, therefore our model can be said to be safer

  9. SPRINT: A Tool to Generate Concurrent Transaction-Level Models from Sequential Code

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Stahl

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A high-level concurrent model such as a SystemC transaction-level model can provide early feedback during the exploration of implementation alternatives for state-of-the-art signal processing applications like video codecs on a multiprocessor platform. However, the creation of such a model starting from sequential code is a time-consuming and error-prone task. It is typically done only once, if at all, for a given design. This lack of exploration of the design space often leads to a suboptimal implementation. To support our systematic C-based design flow, we have developed a tool to generate a concurrent SystemC transaction-level model for user-selected task boundaries. Using this tool, different parallelization alternatives have been evaluated during the design of an MPEG-4 simple profile encoder and an embedded zero-tree coder. Generation plus evaluation of an alternative was possible in less than six minutes. This is fast enough to allow extensive exploration of the design space.

  10. Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

    2014-06-01

    Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

    2014-01-01

    Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370

  12. Particle swarm optimization based artificial neural network model for forecasting groundwater level in Udupi district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balavalikar, Supreetha; Nayak, Prabhakar; Shenoy, Narayan; Nayak, Krishnamurthy

    2018-04-01

    The decline in groundwater is a global problem due to increase in population, industries, and environmental aspects such as increase in temperature, decrease in overall rainfall, loss of forests etc. In Udupi district, India, the water source fully depends on the River Swarna for drinking and agriculture purposes. Since the water storage in Bajae dam is declining day-by-day and the people of Udupi district are under immense pressure due to scarcity of drinking water, alternatively depend on ground water. As the groundwater is being heavily used for drinking and agricultural purposes, there is a decline in its water table. Therefore, the groundwater resources must be identified and preserved for human survival. This research proposes a data driven approach for forecasting the groundwater level. The monthly variations in groundwater level and rainfall data in three observation wells located in Brahmavar, Kundapur and Hebri were investigated and the scenarios were examined for 2000-2013. The focus of this research work is to develop an ANN based groundwater level forecasting model and compare with hybrid ANN-PSO forecasting model. The model parameters are tested using different combinations of the data. The results reveal that PSO-ANN based hybrid model gives a better prediction accuracy, than ANN alone.

  13. Changes in the Global Hydrological Cycle: Lessons from Modeling Lake Levels at the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, D. P.; Morrill, C.

    2011-12-01

    Geologic evidence shows that lake levels in currently arid regions were higher and lakes in currently wet regions were lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Current hypotheses used to explain these lake level changes include the thermodynamic hypothesis, in which decreased tropospheric water vapor coupled with patterns of convergence and divergence caused dry areas to become more wet and vice versa, the dynamic hypothesis, in which shifts in the jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered precipitation patterns, and the evaporation hypothesis, in which lake expansions are attributed to reduced evaporation in a colder climate. This modeling study uses the output of four climate models participating in phase 2 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2) as input into a lake energy-balance model, in order to test the accuracy of the models and understand the causes of lake level changes. We model five lakes which include the Great Basin lakes, USA; Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala; Lake Caçó, northern Brazil; Lake Tauca (Titicaca), Bolivia and Peru; and Lake Cari-Laufquen, Argentina. These lakes create a transect through the drylands of North America through the tropics and to the drylands of South America. The models accurately recreate LGM conditions in 14 out of 20 simulations, with the Great Basin lakes being the most robust and Lake Caçó being the least robust, due to model biases in portraying the ITCZ over South America. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget from one of the climate models shows that thermodynamic processes contribute most significantly to precipitation changes over the Great Basin, while dynamic processes are most significant for the other lakes. Lake Cari-Laufquen shows a lake expansion that is most likely attributed to reduced evaporation rather than changes in regional precipitation, suggesting that lake levels alone may not be the best indicator of how much precipitation this region

  14. The High Level Mathematical Models in Calculating Aircraft Gas Turbine Engine Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. A. Ezrokhi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes high-level mathematical models developed to solve special problems arising at later stages of design with regard to calculation of the aircraft gas turbine engine (GTE under real operating conditions. The use of blade row mathematics models, as well as mathematical models of a higher level, including 2D and 3D description of the working process in the engine units and components, makes it possible to determine parameters and characteristics of the aircraft engine under conditions significantly different from the calculated ones.The paper considers application of mathematical modelling methods (MMM for solving a wide range of practical problems, such as forcing the engine by injection of water into the flowing part, estimate of the thermal instability effect on the GTE characteristics, simulation of engine start-up and windmill starting condition, etc. It shows that the MMM use, when optimizing the laws of the compressor stator control, as well as supplying cooling air to the hot turbine components in the motor system, can significantly improve the integral traction and economic characteristics of the engine in terms of its gas-dynamic stability, reliability and resource.It ought to bear in mind that blade row mathematical models of the engine are designed to solve purely "motor" problems and do not replace the existing models of various complexity levels used in calculation and design of compressors and turbines, because in “quality” a description of the working processes in these units is inevitably inferior to such specialized models.It is shown that the choice of the mathematical modelling level of an aircraft engine for solving a particular problem arising in its designing and computational study is to a large extent a compromise problem. Despite the significantly higher "resolution" and information ability the motor mathematical models containing 2D and 3D approaches to the calculation of flow in blade machine

  15. Photochemical modelling of photo-oxidant levels over the Swiss plateau and emission reduction scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosselet, C.M.; Kerr, J.A.

    1993-05-01

    During summertime high pressure conditions, high photo-oxidant (O 3 , H 2 O 2 , PAN and others) levels are frequently observed in the planetary boundary layer in central Europe. It is well known that close to the earth's surface ozone is formed by complex reactions involving VOC, NO x , and sunlight. Substantial reductions of both precursors are needed to reduce photo-oxidant levels. In this context the reductions of the abundance of the precursors and the variation of their ratios is of great importance. Here we report model calculations from the Harwell Photochemical Trajectory Model of the levels of O 3 , H 2 O 2 and PAN along a trajectory over the Swiss Plateau from Lake Constance to Lake Geneva. These calculations are in satisfactory agreement with measurements made during the intensive observation period of the research program POLLUMET (Pollution and Meteorology in Switzerland). Sensitivity calculations of emission reduction scenarios indicate that on the Swiss Plateau the ozone production may be mainly NO x -limited; under conditions where the CO levels are closer to the upper limit within the range (120-600 ppbv). The calculated peak ozone level reduction caused by an exclusive NO x -emission reduction is about three times larger than that caused by an exclusive VOC reduction. The combined reduction of all precursor compounds is the most efficient strategy, although it is only marginally more efficient than the NO x -reduction scenario alone. (author) figs., tabs., 75 refs

  16. Sea-level and solid-Earth deformation feedbacks in ice sheet modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Hannes; Sasgen, Ingo; Klemann, Volker; Thoma, Malte; Grosfeld, Klaus; Martinec, Zdeněk

    2014-05-01

    The interactions of ice sheets with the sea level and the solid Earth are important factors for the stability of the ice shelves and the tributary inland ice (e.g. Thomas and Bentley, 1978; Gomez et al, 2012). First, changes in ice extent and ice thickness induce viscoelastic deformation of the Earth surface and Earth's gravity field. In turn, global and local changes in sea level and bathymetry affect the grounding line and, subsequently, alter the ice dynamic behaviour. Here, we investigate these feedbacks for a synthetic ice sheet configuration as well as for the Antarctic ice sheet using a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet and shelf model, coupled to a viscoelastic solid-Earth and gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model. The respective ice sheet undergoes a forcing from rising sea level, warming ocean, and/or changing surface mass balance. The coupling is realized by exchanging ice thickness, Earth surface deformation and sea level periodically. We apply several sets of viscoelastic Earth parameters to our coupled model, e.g. simulating a low-viscous upper mantle present at the Antarctic Peninsula (Ivins et al., 2011). Special focus of our study lies on the evolution of Earth surface deformation and local sea level changes, as well as on the accompanying grounding line evolution. N. Gomez, D. Pollard, J. X. Mitrovica, P. Huybers, and P. U. Clark 2012. Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet-sea level model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F01013, doi:10.1029/2011JF002128. E. R. Ivins, M. M. Watkins, D.-N. Yuan, R. Dietrich, G. Casassa, and A. Rülke 2011. On-land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjustment at the Drake Passage: 2003-2009, J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02403, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007607 R. H. Thomas and C. R. Bentley 1978. A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Quaternary Research, 10 (2), pages 150-170, doi: 10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4.

  17. Multispectral simulation environment for modeling low-light-level sensor systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ientilucci, Emmett J.; Brown, Scott D.; Schott, John R.; Raqueno, Rolando V.

    1998-11-01

    Image intensifying cameras have been found to be extremely useful in low-light-level (LLL) scenarios including military night vision and civilian rescue operations. These sensors utilize the available visible region photons and an amplification process to produce high contrast imagery. It has been demonstrated that processing techniques can further enhance the quality of this imagery. For example, fusion with matching thermal IR imagery can improve image content when very little visible region contrast is available. To aid in the improvement of current algorithms and the development of new ones, a high fidelity simulation environment capable of producing radiometrically correct multi-band imagery for low- light-level conditions is desired. This paper describes a modeling environment attempting to meet these criteria by addressing the task as two individual components: (1) prediction of a low-light-level radiance field from an arbitrary scene, and (2) simulation of the output from a low- light-level sensor for a given radiance field. The radiance prediction engine utilized in this environment is the Digital Imaging and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) model which is a first principles based multi-spectral synthetic image generation model capable of producing an arbitrary number of bands in the 0.28 to 20 micrometer region. The DIRSIG model is utilized to produce high spatial and spectral resolution radiance field images. These images are then processed by a user configurable multi-stage low-light-level sensor model that applies the appropriate noise and modulation transfer function (MTF) at each stage in the image processing chain. This includes the ability to reproduce common intensifying sensor artifacts such as saturation and 'blooming.' Additionally, co-registered imagery in other spectral bands may be simultaneously generated for testing fusion and exploitation algorithms. This paper discusses specific aspects of the DIRSIG radiance prediction for low

  18. Hypoxia and oxidation levels of DNA and lipids in humans and animal experimental models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Peter; Risom, Lotte; Lundby, Carsten

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this review was to evaluate the association between hypoxia and oxidative damage to DNA and lipids. Evaluation criteria encompassed specificity and validation status of the biomarkers, study design, strength of the association, dose-response relationship, biological plausibility......, analogous exposures, and effect modification by intervention. The collective interpretation indicates persuasive evidence from the studies in humans for an association between hypoxia and elevated levels of oxidative damage to DNA and lipids. The levels of oxidatively generated DNA lesions and lipid...... in subjects at high altitude. Most of the animal experimental models should be interpreted with caution because the assays for assessment of lipid peroxidation products have suboptimal validity....

  19. Lowering beta-amyloid levels rescues learning and memory in a Down syndrome mouse model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J Netzer

    Full Text Available beta-amyloid levels are elevated in Down syndrome (DS patients throughout life and are believed to cause Alzheimer's disease (AD in adult members of this population. However, it is not known if beta-amyloid contributes to intellectual disability in younger individuals. We used a gamma-secretase inhibitor to lower beta-amyloid levels in young mice that model DS. This treatment corrected learning deficits characteristic of these mice, suggesting that beta-amyloid-lowering therapies might improve cognitive function in young DS patients.

  20. Analysis of factors affecting satisfaction level on problem based learning approach using structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Nur Farahin Mee; Zahid, Zalina

    2014-12-01

    Nowadays, in the job market demand, graduates are expected not only to have higher performance in academic but they must also be excellent in soft skill. Problem-Based Learning (PBL) has a number of distinct advantages as a learning method as it can deliver graduates that will be highly prized by industry. This study attempts to determine the satisfaction level of engineering students on the PBL Approach and to evaluate their determinant factors. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used to investigate how the factors of Good Teaching Scale, Clear Goals, Student Assessment and Levels of Workload affected the student satisfaction towards PBL approach.

  1. Model-Aided Altimeter-Based Water Level Forecasting System in Mekong River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, C. H.; Lee, H.; Hossain, F.; Okeowo, M. A.; Basnayake, S. B.; Jayasinghe, S.; Saah, D. S.; Anderson, E.; Hwang, E.

    2017-12-01

    Mekong River, one of the massive river systems in the world, has drainage area of about 795,000 km2 covering six countries. People living in its drainage area highly rely on resources given by the river in terms of agriculture, fishery, and hydropower. Monitoring and forecasting the water level in a timely manner, is urgently needed over the Mekong River. Recently, using TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) altimetry water level measurements in India, Biancamaria et al. [2011] has demonstrated the capability of an altimeter-based flood forecasting system in Bangladesh, with RMSE from 0.6 - 0.8 m for lead times up to 5 days on 10-day basis due to T/P's repeat period. Hossain et al. [2013] further established a daily water level forecasting system in Bangladesh using observations from Jason-2 in India and HEC-RAS hydraulic model, with RMSE from 0.5 - 1.5 m and an underestimating mean bias of 0.25 - 1.25 m. However, such daily forecasting system relies on a collection of Jason-2 virtual stations (VSs) to ensure frequent sampling and data availability. Since the Mekong River is a meridional river with few number of VSs, the direct application of this system to the Mekong River becomes challenging. To address this problem, we propose a model-aided altimeter-based forecasting system. The discharge output by Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model is used to reconstruct a daily water level product at upstream Jason-2 VSs based on the discharge-to-level rating curve. The reconstructed daily water level is then used to perform regression analysis with downstream in-situ water level to build regression models, which are used to forecast a daily water level. In the middle reach of the Mekong River from Nakhon Phanom to Kratie, a 3-day lead time forecasting can reach RMSE about 0.7 - 1.3 m with correlation coefficient around 0.95. For the lower reach of the Mekong River, the water flow becomes more complicated due to the reversal flow between the Tonle Sap Lake and the Mekong River

  2. Conceptual-level workflow modeling of scientific experiments using NMR as a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gryk Michael R

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientific workflows improve the process of scientific experiments by making computations explicit, underscoring data flow, and emphasizing the participation of humans in the process when intuition and human reasoning are required. Workflows for experiments also highlight transitions among experimental phases, allowing intermediate results to be verified and supporting the proper handling of semantic mismatches and different file formats among the various tools used in the scientific process. Thus, scientific workflows are important for the modeling and subsequent capture of bioinformatics-related data. While much research has been conducted on the implementation of scientific workflows, the initial process of actually designing and generating the workflow at the conceptual level has received little consideration. Results We propose a structured process to capture scientific workflows at the conceptual level that allows workflows to be documented efficiently, results in concise models of the workflow and more-correct workflow implementations, and provides insight into the scientific process itself. The approach uses three modeling techniques to model the structural, data flow, and control flow aspects of the workflow. The domain of biomolecular structure determination using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy is used to demonstrate the process. Specifically, we show the application of the approach to capture the workflow for the process of conducting biomolecular analysis using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR spectroscopy. Conclusion Using the approach, we were able to accurately document, in a short amount of time, numerous steps in the process of conducting an experiment using NMR spectroscopy. The resulting models are correct and precise, as outside validation of the models identified only minor omissions in the models. In addition, the models provide an accurate visual description of the control flow for conducting

  3. Modelling pollutant deposition to vegetation: scaling down from the canopy to the biochemical level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, G.E. Jr.; Constable, J.V.H.

    1994-01-01

    In the atmosphere, pollutants exist in either the gas, particle or liquid (rain and cloud water) phase. The most important gas-phase pollutants from a biological or ecological perspective are oxides of nitrogen (nitrogen dioxide, nitric acid vapor), oxides of sulfur (sulfur dioxide), ammonia, tropospheric ozone and mercury vapor. For liquid or particle phase pollutants, the suite of pollutants is varied and includes hydrogen ion, multiple heavy metals, and select anions. For many of these pollutants, plant canopies are a major sink within continental landscapes, and deposition is highly dependent on the (i) physical form or phase of the pollutant, (ii) meteorological conditions above and within the plant canopy, and (iii) physiological or biochemical properties of the leaf, both on the leaf surface and within the leaf interior. In large measure, the physical and chemical processes controlling deposition at the meteorological and whole-canopy levels are well characterized and have been mathematically modelled. In contrast, the processes operating on the leaf surface and within the leaf interior are not well understood and are largely specific for individual pollutants. The availability of process-level models to estimate deposition is discussed briefly at the canopy and leaf level; however, the majority of effort is devoted to modelling deposition at the leaf surface and leaf interior using the two-layer stagnant film model. This model places a premium on information of a physiological and biochemical nature, and highlights the need to distinguish clearly between the measurements of atmospheric chemistry and the physiologically effective exposure since the two may be very dissimilar. A case study of deposition in the Los Angeles Basin is used to demonstrate the modelling approach, to present the concept of exposure dynamics in the atmosphere versus that in the leaf interior, and to document the principle that most forest canopies are exposed to multiple chemical

  4. Formalization of the General Model of the Green Economy at the Regional Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Mikhaylovich Potravny

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject-matter of the article is the research of the problems of economic and mathematical modelling of the green economy at the regional level. The purpose of the research is the substantiation and development of economic and mathematical tools for the modelling of economic and ecological systems at the regional level on the basis of the principles of the green economy. The hypothesis of the study is based on the thesis that in the conditions of the resource exhaustion and depletion of natural capital, the technogenic deposits as well as production waste and consumption can be considered as the resource base for modern production, whose use leads to the elimination of accumulated environmental damage and substitution of natural resources. In the article, the approaches to the system modelling problems are considered to develop the green economy at the level of the country and its regions. The relevance of the transition to a green economy is confirmed by the theoretical and practical research in the field of the cyclic development of socio-eco-economic systems. A number of formalized models and methods for solving current environmental-economic issues including the economic valuation of accumulated environmental damage, eco-economic assessment of the efficiency of natural resource substitution with resource-substitute are proposed as well as the choice of an optimal set of resources-substitutes taking into account the financial and natural resource constraints. The standard models of green growth are considered. These models take into account the exhaustion of natural resources, involvement of the resources of technogenic deposits in the economic circulation through the implementation of investment projects on the elimination of accumulated environmental damage. The results of the study may be used in the different regions of the country for the justification and implementation of investment projects in the framework of the Federal Target

  5. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model for Fentanyl in support of the development of Provisional Advisory Levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shankaran, Harish, E-mail: harish.shankaran@pnnl.gov [Computational Biology and Bioinformatics Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Adeshina, Femi [National Homeland Security Research Center, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Teeguarden, Justin G. [Systems Toxicology Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States)

    2013-12-15

    Provisional Advisory Levels (PALs) are tiered exposure limits for toxic chemicals in air and drinking water that are developed to assist in emergency responses. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling can support this process by enabling extrapolations across doses, and exposure routes, thereby addressing gaps in the available toxicity data. Here, we describe the development of a PBPK model for Fentanyl – a synthetic opioid used clinically for pain management – to support the establishment of PALs. Starting from an existing model for intravenous Fentanyl, we first optimized distribution and clearance parameters using several additional IV datasets. We then calibrated the model using pharmacokinetic data for various formulations, and determined the absorbed fraction, F, and time taken for the absorbed amount to reach 90% of its final value, t90. For aerosolized pulmonary Fentanyl, F = 1 and t90 < 1 min indicating complete and rapid absorption. The F value ranged from 0.35 to 0.74 for oral and various transmucosal routes. Oral Fentanyl was absorbed the slowest (t90 ∼ 300 min); the absorption of intranasal Fentanyl was relatively rapid (t90 ∼ 20–40 min); and the various oral transmucosal routes had intermediate absorption rates (t90 ∼ 160–300 min). Based on these results, for inhalation exposures, we assumed that all of the Fentanyl inhaled from the air during each breath directly, and instantaneously enters the arterial circulation. We present model predictions of Fentanyl blood concentrations in oral and inhalation scenarios relevant for PAL development, and provide an analytical expression that can be used to extrapolate between oral and inhalation routes for the derivation of PALs. - Highlights: • We develop a Fentanyl PBPK model for relating external dose to internal levels. • We calibrate the model to oral and inhalation exposures using > 50 human datasets. • Model predictions are in good agreement with the available

  6. Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

    2016-12-01

    As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

  7. Performance modeling of concrete/metal barriers used in low-level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, R.; Chau, Nam; Icenhour, A.S.; Godbee, H.W.; Tharp, M.L.

    1993-01-01

    Low-Level radioactive wastes generated in government and commercial operations involving nuclear materials need to be isolated from the environment almost in perpetuity. An increasing number of disposal sites are using concrete/metal barriers (so called ''engineered'' barriers) to isolate these wastes from the environment. Two major concerns hamper the use of engineered barriers; namely, the lack of ability to reliably predict the service life of these barriers and to estimate the confidence level of the service life predicted. Computer codes (SOURCE1 and SOURCE2) for estimating the long-term (centuries to millennia) service life of these barriers are presented. These codes use mathematical models (based on past observations, currently accepted data, and established theories) to predict behavior into the future. Processes modeled for concrete degradation include sulfate attack, calcium hydroxide leaching, and reinforcement corrosion. The loss of structural integrity due to cracking is also modeled. Mechanisms modeled for nuclide leaching include advection and diffusion. The coupled or linked effects of these models are addressed in the codes. Outputs from the codes are presented and analyzed

  8. Dynamic PET scanning and compartmental model analysis to determine cellular level radiotracer distribution in vivo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, G.T.; Hubner, K.F.; Goodman, M.M.; Stubbs, J.B.

    1992-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) has been used to measure tissue radiotracer concentration in vivo. Radiochemical distribution can be determined with compartmental model analysis. A two compartment model describes the kinetics of N-13 ammonia ( 13 NH 3 ) in the myocardium. The model consists of a vascular space, Q 1 and a space for 13 NH 3 bound within the tissue, Q 2 . Differential equations for the model can be written: X(t) = AX(t) + BU( t), Y(t)= CX(t)+ DU(t) (1) where X(t) is a column vector [Q 1 (t); Q 2 (t)], U(t) is the arterial input activity measured from the left ventricular blood pool, and Y(t) is the measured tissue activity using PET. Matrices A, B, C, and D are dependent on physiological parameters describing the kinetics of 13 NH 3 in the myocardium. Estimated parameter matrices in Equation 1 have been validated in dog experiments by measuring myocardial perfusion with dynamic PET scanning and intravenous injection of 13 NH 3 . Tracer concentrations for each compartment can be calculated by direct integration of Equation 1. If the cellular level distribution of each compartment is known, the concentration of tracer within the intracellular and extracellular space can be determined. Applications of this type of modeling include parameter estimation for measurement of physiological processes, organ level dosimetry, and determination of cellular radiotracer distribution

  9. [The Community Care as a model of social and health integration at the local level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridolfi, Luciana

    2013-01-01

    The article develops a hypothesis for improving primary care services through health care solutions that can exceed the models in use (essentially hierarchical and based on tasks) in favor of new relational, multi-sectoral and network approaches that could privilege the integration of social and health services at the regional and district level (Community care). A qualitative methodological approach which analyzes the role of social networks in Community care, some national and international experiences of primary care models and the evaluation of the different role given to primary care both in the hierarchical-pyramidal approach and in the horizontal one (network approach). Some Italian regions are experimenting effective organizational models of care such as Primary Care Teams, Primary Care Units, Regional teams, Departments of Primary Care, Houses of Health ... At international level, it should be mentioned the Chronic Care Model (CCM), recently identified by WHO as a reference model, and adopted by the Tuscany Region (Italy). People-centered health care projects need shared interventions by competent and functional multiprofessional teams: the best outcome for the patient depends on the good interaction between individuals. It's necessary that relationships between members of the group are based on interdependence, integration and consistency to avoid risks of group illusion.

  10. Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Estimation under a Unit Level Model with Applications in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nageena Nazir

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available To studied Bayesian aspect of small area estimation using Unit level model. In this paper we proposed and evaluated new prior distribution for the ratio of variance components in unit level model rather than uniform prior. To approximate the posterior moments of small area means, Laplace approximation method is applied. This choice of prior avoids the extreme skewness, usually present in the posterior distribution of variance components. This property leads to more accurate Laplace approximation. We apply the proposed model to the analysis of horticultural data and results from the model are compared with frequestist approach and with Bayesian model of uniform prior in terms of average relative bias, average squared relative bias and average absolute bias. The numerical results obtained highlighted the superiority of using the proposed prior over the uniform prior. Thus Bayes estimators (with new prior of small area means have good frequentist properties such as MSE and ARB as compared to other traditional methods viz., Direct, Synthetic and Composite estimators.

  11. A dynamic simulation model of the Savannah River Site high level waste complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, M.V.; Aull, J.E.; Dimenna, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    A detailed, dynamic simulation entire high level radioactive waste complex at the Savannah River Site has been developed using SPEEDUP(tm) software. The model represents mass transfer, evaporation, precipitation, sludge washing, effluent treatment, and vitrification unit operation processes through the solution of 7800 coupled differential and algebraic equations. Twenty-seven discrete chemical constituents are tracked through the unit operations. The simultaneous simultaneous simulation of concurrent batch and continuous processes is achieved by several novel, customized SPEEDUP(tm) algorithms. Due to the model's computational burden, a high-end work station is required: simulation of a years operation of the complex requires approximately three CPU hours on an IBM RS/6000 Model 590 processor. The model will be used to develop optimal high level waste (HLW) processing strategies over a thirty year time horizon. It will be employed to better understand the dynamic inter-relationships between different HLW unit operations, and to suggest strategies that will maximize available working tank space during the early years of operation and minimize overall waste processing cost over the long-term history of the complex. Model validation runs are currently underway with comparisons against actual plant operating data providing an excellent match

  12. Modeling two strains of disease via aggregate-level infectivity curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanescu, Razvan; Deardon, Rob

    2016-04-01

    Well formulated models of disease spread, and efficient methods to fit them to observed data, are powerful tools for aiding the surveillance and control of infectious diseases. Our project considers the problem of the simultaneous spread of two related strains of disease in a context where spatial location is the key driver of disease spread. We start our modeling work with the individual level models (ILMs) of disease transmission, and extend these models to accommodate the competing spread of the pathogens in a two-tier hierarchical population (whose levels we refer to as 'farm' and 'animal'). The postulated interference mechanism between the two strains is a period of cross-immunity following infection. We also present a framework for speeding up the computationally intensive process of fitting the ILM to data, typically done using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in a Bayesian framework, by turning the inference into a two-stage process. First, we approximate the number of animals infected on a farm over time by infectivity curves. These curves are fit to data sampled from farms, using maximum likelihood estimation, then, conditional on the fitted curves, Bayesian MCMC inference proceeds for the remaining parameters. Finally, we use posterior predictive distributions of salient epidemic summary statistics, in order to assess the model fitted.

  13. Plant-Level Modeling and Simulation of Used Nuclear Fuel Dissolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Almeida, Valmor F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2012-09-07

    Plant-level modeling and simulation of a used nuclear fuel prototype dissolver is presented. Emphasis is given in developing a modeling and simulation approach to be explored by other processes involved in the recycle of used fuel. The commonality concepts presented in a previous communication were used to create a model and realize its software module. An initial model was established based on a theory of chemical thermomechanical network transport outlined previously. A software module prototype was developed with the required external behavior and internal mathematical structure. Results obtained demonstrate the generality of the design approach and establish an extensible mathematical model with its corresponding software module for a wide range of dissolvers. Scale up numerical tests were made varying the type of used fuel (breeder and light-water reactors) and the capacity of dissolution (0.5 t/d to 1.7 t/d). These tests were motivated by user requirements in the area of nuclear materials safeguards. A computer module written in high-level programing languages (MATLAB and Octave) was developed, tested, and provided as open-source code (MATLAB) for integration into the Separations and Safeguards Performance Model application in development at Sandia National Laboratories. The modeling approach presented here is intended to serve as a template for a rational modeling of all plant-level modules. This will facilitate the practical application of the commonality features underlying the unifying network transport theory proposed recently. In addition, by example, this model describes, explicitly, the needed data from sub-scale models, and logical extensions for future model development. For example, from thermodynamics, an off-line simulation of molecular dynamics could quantify partial molar volumes for the species in the liquid phase; this simulation is currently at reach for high-performance computing. From fluid mechanics, a hold-up capacity function is needed

  14. Mineral-modeled ceramics for long-term storage of high-level nuclear wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vance, E.R.

    1980-01-01

    Over the past ten years, Penn State's Materials Research Laboratory has done extensive work on mineral-modeled ceramics for high-level nuclear waste storage. These ceramics are composed of several mineral analogues that form a monolithic polycrystalline aggregate. Mineral-modeling can be made in a similar fashion to nuclear waste glasses, and their naturally occurring analogues are known to last millions, and even billions, of years in hot, wet conditions. It is believed that such ceramics could reduce dispersal of radionuclides by leaching to a minimum

  15. Modelling the economic impact of three lameness causing diseases using herd and cow level evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ettema, Jehan Frans; Østergaard, Søren; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2010-01-01

    Diseases to the cow's hoof, interdigital skin and legs are highly prevalent and of large economic impact in modern dairy farming. In order to support farmer's decisions on preventing and treating lameness and its underlying causes, decision support models can be used to predict the economic...... horn diseases. Secondly, the existing simulation model was set-up inwaythat it uses hyper-distributions describing diseases risk of the three lameness causing diseases. By combining information on herd level risk factors with prevalence of lameness or prevalence of underlying diseases among cows...

  16. Modeling Restrained Shrinkage Induced Cracking in Concrete Rings Using the Thick Level Set Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Nakhoul

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Modeling restrained shrinkage-induced damage and cracking in concrete is addressed herein. The novel Thick Level Set (TLS damage growth and crack propagation model is used and adapted by introducing shrinkage contribution into the formulation. The TLS capacity to predict damage evolution, crack initiation and growth triggered by restrained shrinkage in absence of external loads is evaluated. A study dealing with shrinkage-induced cracking in elliptical concrete rings is presented herein. Key results such as the effect of rings oblateness on stress distribution and critical shrinkage strain needed to initiate damage are highlighted. In addition, crack positions are compared to those observed in experiments and are found satisfactory.

  17. Comparison of void strengthening in fcc and bcc metals: Large-scale atomic-level modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osetsky, Yu.N.; Bacon, D.J.

    2005-01-01

    Strengthening due to voids can be a significant radiation effect in metals. Treatment of this by elasticity theory of dislocations is difficult when atomic structure of the obstacle and dislocation is influential. In this paper, we report results of large-scale atomic-level modelling of edge dislocation-void interaction in fcc (copper) and bcc (iron) metals. Voids of up to 5 nm diameter were studied over the temperature range from 0 to 600 K. We demonstrate that atomistic modelling is able to reveal important effects, which are beyond the continuum approach. Some arise from features of the dislocation core and crystal structure, others involve dislocation climb and temperature effects

  18. Models of governance in multihospital systems. Implications for hospital and system-level decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morlock, L L; Alexander, J A

    1986-12-01

    This study utilizes data from a national survey of 159 multihospital systems in order to describe the types of governance structures currently being utilized, and to compare the policy making process for various types of decisions in systems with different approaches to governance. Survey results indicate that multihospital systems most often use one of three governance models. Forty-one percent of the systems (including 33% of system hospitals) use a parent holding company model in which there is a system-wide corporate governing board and separate governing boards for each member hospital. Twenty-two percent of systems in the sample (but 47% of all system hospitals) utilize what we have termed a modified parent holding company model in which there is one system-wide governing board, but advisory boards are substituted for governing boards at the local hospital level. Twenty-three percent of the sampled systems (including 11% of system hospitals) use a corporate model in which there is one system-wide governing board but no other governing or advisory boards at either the divisional, regional or local hospital levels. A comparison of systems using these three governance approaches found significant variation in terms of system size, ownership and the geographic proximity of member hospitals. In order to examine the relationship between alternative approaches to governance and patterns of decision-making, the three model types were compared with respect to the percentages of systems reporting that local boards, corporate management and/or system-wide corporate boards have responsibility for decision-making in a number of specific issue areas. Study results indicate that, regardless of model type, corporate boards are most likely to have responsibility for decisions regarding the transfer, pledging and sale of assets; the formation of new companies; purchase of assets greater than $100,000; changes in hospital bylaws; and the appointment of local board members. In

  19. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

    2015-05-01

    The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. ASAMPSA-E guidance for level 2 PSA Volume 2. Implementing external Events modelling in Level 2 PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cazzoli, E.; Vitazkova, J.; Loeffler, H.; Burgazzi, L.

    2016-01-01

    The objective of the present document is to provide guidance on the implementation of external events into an 'extended' L2 PSA. It has to be noted that L2 PSA addresses issues beginning with fuel degradation and ending with the release of radionuclides into the environment. Therefore, the present document may touch upon, but does not evaluate explicitly issues that involve events or phenomena which occur before the fuel begins to degrade. Following the accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi, the nuclear safety community has realized that much attention should be given to the areas of operator interventions and accidents that may develop at the same time in more than one unit if they are initiated by one or more common external events. For this reason and to fulfill the PSA end-users' wish list (as reflected by an ASAMPSA-E survey), the attention is mostly focused on interface between L1 and L2 PSA, fragility analysis, human response analysis and some consideration is given to L2 PSA modeling of severe accidents for multiple unit sites, even though it is premature to provide extensive guidance in this area. The following recommendations, mentioned in various sections within this document, are summarized here: 1. Vulnerability/fragility analyses should be performed with respect to all external hazards and all structures, systems and components potentially affected that could be relevant to L2 PSA, 2. Importance should be given to the assessment of human performance following extreme external events; for extreme circumstances with high stress level, low confidence is justified for SAM human interventions and for such conditions, human interventions could be analyzed as sensitivity cases only in L2 PSA, 3. Results presentation should include assessment of total risk measures compared with risk targets able to assess all contributions to the risk and to judge properly the safety, 4. Total risk measures shall be associated to appropriate information on all

  1. Modelling CEC variations versus structural iron reduction levels in dioctahedral smectites. Existing approaches, new data and model refinements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadi, Jebril; Tournassat, Christophe; Ignatiadis, Ioannis; Greneche, Jean Marc; Charlet, Laurent

    2013-10-01

    A model was developed to describe how the 2:1 layer excess negative charge induced by the reduction of Fe(III) to Fe(II) by sodium dithionite buffered with citrate-bicarbonate is balanced and applied to nontronites. This model is based on new experimental data and extends structural interpretation introduced by a former model [36-38]. The 2:1 layer negative charge increase due to Fe(III) to Fe(II) reduction is balanced by an excess adsorption of cations in the clay interlayers and a specific sorption of H(+) from solution. Prevalence of one compensating mechanism over the other is related to the growing lattice distortion induced by structural Fe(III) reduction. At low reduction levels, cation adsorption dominates and some of the incorporated protons react with structural OH groups, leading to a dehydroxylation of the structure. Starting from a moderate reduction level, other structural changes occur, leading to a reorganisation of the octahedral and tetrahedral lattice: migration or release of cations, intense dehydroxylation and bonding of protons to undersaturated oxygen atoms. Experimental data highlight some particular properties of ferruginous smectites regarding chemical reduction. Contrary to previous assumptions, the negative layer charge of nontronites does not only increase towards a plateau value upon reduction. A peak is observed in the reduction domain. After this peak, the negative layer charge decreases upon extended reduction (>30%). The decrease is so dramatic that the layer charge of highly reduced nontronites can fall below that of its fully oxidised counterpart. Furthermore, the presence of a large amount of tetrahedral Fe seems to promote intense clay structural changes and Fe reducibility. Our newly acquired data clearly show that models currently available in the literature cannot be applied to the whole reduction range of clay structural Fe. Moreover, changes in the model normalising procedure clearly demonstrate that the investigated low

  2. Region-scale groundwater flow modelling of generic high level waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcalfe, D.

    1996-02-01

    Regional-scale groundwater flow modelling analyses are performed on generic high level waste (HLW) disposal sites to assess the extent to which a large crystalline rock mass such as a pluton or batholith can be expected to contain and isolate HLW in terms of hydraulic considerations, for a variety of geologic and hydrogeologic conditions. The two-dimensional cross-sectional conceptual models of generic HLW disposal sites are evaluated using SWIFT III, which is a finite-difference flow and transport code. All steps leading to the final results and conclusions are incorporated in this report. The available data and information on geological and hydrogeologic conditions in plutons and batholiths are summarized. The generic conceptual models developed from this information are defined in terms of the finite difference grid, the geologic and hydrogeologic properties and the hydrologic boundary conditions used. The modelled results are described with contour maps showing the modelled head fields, groundwater flow paths and travel times and groundwater flux rates within the modelled systems. The results of the modelling analyses are used to develop general conclusions on the scales and patterns of groundwater flow in granitic plutons and batholiths. The conclusions focus on geologic and hydrogeologic characteristics that can result in favourable conditions, in terms of hydraulic considerations, for a HLW repository. (author) 43 refs., 9 tabs., 40 figs

  3. Low level waste management: a compilation of models and monitoring techniques. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosier, J.E.; Fowler, J.R.; Barton, C.J.

    1980-04-01

    In support of the National Low-Level Waste (LLW) Management Research and Development Program being carried out at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Science Applications, Inc., conducted a survey of models and monitoring techniques associated with the transport of radionuclides and other chemical species from LLW burial sites. As a result of this survey, approximately 350 models were identified. For each model the purpose and a brief description are presented. To the extent possible, a point of contact and reference material are identified. The models are organized into six technical categories: atmospheric transport, dosimetry, food chain, groundwater transport, soil transport, and surface water transport. About 4% of the models identified covered other aspects of LLW management and are placed in a miscellaneous category. A preliminary assessment of all these models was performed to determine their ability to analyze the transport of other chemical species. The models that appeared to be applicable are identified. A brief survey of the state-of-the-art techniques employed to monitor LLW burial sites is also presented, along with a very brief discussion of up-to-date burial techniques

  4. Low level waste management: a compilation of models and monitoring techniques. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mosier, J.E.; Fowler, J.R.; Barton, C.J. (comps.)

    1980-04-01

    In support of the National Low-Level Waste (LLW) Management Research and Development Program being carried out at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Science Applications, Inc., conducted a survey of models and monitoring techniques associated with the transport of radionuclides and other chemical species from LLW burial sites. As a result of this survey, approximately 350 models were identified. For each model the purpose and a brief description are presented. To the extent possible, a point of contact and reference material are identified. The models are organized into six technical categories: atmospheric transport, dosimetry, food chain, groundwater transport, soil transport, and surface water transport. About 4% of the models identified covered other aspects of LLW management and are placed in a miscellaneous category. A preliminary assessment of all these models was performed to determine their ability to analyze the transport of other chemical species. The models that appeared to be applicable are identified. A brief survey of the state-of-the-art techniques employed to monitor LLW burial sites is also presented, along with a very brief discussion of up-to-date burial techniques.

  5. Efficient Simulation Modeling of an Integrated High-Level-Waste Processing Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, Michael V.; Paul, Pran K.

    2000-01-01

    An integrated computational tool named the Production Planning Model (ProdMod) has been developed to simulate the operation of the entire high-level-waste complex (HLW) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) over its full life cycle. ProdMod is used to guide SRS management in operating the waste complex in an economically efficient and environmentally sound manner. SRS HLW operations are modeled using coupled algebraic equations. The dynamic nature of plant processes is modeled in the form of a linear construct in which the time dependence is implicit. Batch processes are modeled in discrete event-space, while continuous processes are modeled in time-space. The ProdMod methodology maps between event-space and time-space such that the inherent mathematical discontinuities in batch process simulation are avoided without sacrificing any of the necessary detail in the batch recipe steps. Modeling the processes separately in event- and time-space using linear constructs, and then coupling the two spaces, has accelerated the speed of simulation compared to a typical dynamic simulation. The ProdMod simulator models have been validated against operating data and other computer codes. Case studies have demonstrated the usefulness of the ProdMod simulator in developing strategies that demonstrate significant cost savings in operating the SRS HLW complex and in verifying the feasibility of newly proposed processes

  6. SUMO, System performance assessment for a high-level nuclear waste repository: Mathematical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslinger, P.W.; Miley, T.B.; Engel, D.W.; Chamberlain, P.J. II.

    1992-09-01

    Following completion of the preliminary risk assessment of the potential Yucca Mountain Site by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) in 1988, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) requested the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL to develop an integrated system model and computer code that provides performance and risk assessment analysis capabilities for a potential high-level nuclear waste repository. The system model that has been developed addresses the cumulative radionuclide release criteria established by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and estimates population risks in terms of dose to humans. The system model embodied in the SUMO (System Unsaturated Model) code will also allow benchmarking of other models being developed for the Yucca Mountain Project. The system model has three natural divisions: (1) source term, (2) far-field transport, and (3) dose to humans. This document gives a detailed description of the mathematics of each of these three divisions. Each of the governing equations employed is based on modeling assumptions that are widely accepted within the scientific community

  7. Development of a unit cell model for interim performance assessment of vitrified low level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kline, N.W.

    1995-09-01

    The unit cell modeling approach has been developed and used in analysis of some design options for a vitrified low level waste disposal facility. The unit cell modeling approach is likely to be useful in interim performance assessment for the facility. The present unit cell model will probably need to be refitted in terms of some model parameters for the latter purpose. Two present disposal facility concepts differ in the length of a capillary barrier proposed to limit effective recharge through the top of the facility. Results of the study summarized herein suggest design of a capillary barrier which can reduce a recharge rate of 0.1 cm/yr by one or two orders of magnitude seems feasible for both concepts. A benchmark comparison of the unit cell model against a full facility model shows comparable predictive accuracy in less than one percent of the computer time. Results suggest that model parameters include capillary barrier performance, inter-canister spacing, rate of moisture withdrawal due to glass corrosion, contaminant inventory, and the well interceptor factor. It is also important that variations of waste form hydraulic parameters suggest that transport through the waste form is dominated by diffusion

  8. Modeling level change in Lake Urmia using hybrid artificial intelligence approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esbati, M.; Ahmadieh Khanesar, M.; Shahzadi, Ali

    2017-06-01

    The investigation of water level fluctuations in lakes for protecting them regarding the importance of these water complexes in national and regional scales has found a special place among countries in recent years. The importance of the prediction of water level balance in Lake Urmia is necessary due to several-meter fluctuations in the last decade which help the prevention from possible future losses. For this purpose, in this paper, the performance of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting the lake water level balance has been studied. In addition, for the training of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and hybrid backpropagation-recursive least square method algorithm have been used. Moreover, a hybrid method based on particle swarm optimization and recursive least square (PSO-RLS) training algorithm for the training of ANFIS structure is introduced. In order to have a more fare comparison, hybrid particle swarm optimization and gradient descent are also applied. The models have been trained, tested, and validated based on lake level data between 1991 and 2014. For performance evaluation, a comparison is made between these methods. Numerical results obtained show that the proposed methods with a reasonable error have a good performance in water level balance prediction. It is also clear that with continuing the current trend, Lake Urmia will experience more drop in the water level balance in the upcoming years.

  9. Efficient Uplink Modeling for Dynamic System-Level Simulations of Cellular and Mobile Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lobinger Andreas

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel theoretical framework for uplink simulations is proposed. It allows investigations which have to cover a very long (real- time and which at the same time require a certain level of accuracy in terms of radio resource management, quality of service, and mobility. This is of particular importance for simulations of self-organizing networks. For this purpose, conventional system level simulators are not suitable due to slow simulation speeds far beyond real-time. Simpler, snapshot-based tools are lacking the aforementioned accuracy. The runtime improvements are achieved by deriving abstract theoretical models for the MAC layer behavior. The focus in this work is long term evolution, and the most important uplink effects such as fluctuating interference, power control, power limitation, adaptive transmission bandwidth, and control channel limitations are considered. Limitations of the abstract models will be discussed as well. Exemplary results are given at the end to demonstrate the capability of the derived framework.

  10. Quantum thermodynamics of the resonant-level model with driven system-bath coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haughian, Patrick; Esposito, Massimiliano; Schmidt, Thomas L.

    2018-02-01

    We study nonequilibrium thermodynamics in a fermionic resonant-level model with arbitrary coupling strength to a fermionic bath, taking the wide-band limit. In contrast to previous theories, we consider a system where both the level energy and the coupling strength depend explicitly on time. We find that, even in this generalized model, consistent thermodynamic laws can be obtained, up to the second order in the drive speed, by splitting the coupling energy symmetrically between system and bath. We define observables for the system energy, work, heat, and entropy, and calculate them using nonequilibrium Green's functions. We find that the observables fulfill the laws of thermodynamics, and connect smoothly to the known equilibrium results.

  11. Referent 3D tumor model at cellular level in radionuclide therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spaic, R.; Ilic, R.D.; Petrovic, B.J.

    2002-01-01

    Aim Conventional internal dosimetry has a lot of limitations because of tumor dose nonuniformity. The best approach for absorbed dose at cellular level for different tumors in radionuclide therapy calculation is Monte Carlo method. The purpose of this study is to introduce referent tumor 3D model at cellular level for Monte Carlo simulation study in radionuclide therapy. Material and Methods The moment when tumor is detectable and when same therapy can start is time period in which referent 3D tumor model at cellular level was defined. In accordance with tumor growth rate at that moment he was a sphere with same radius (10 000 μm). In that tumor there are cells or cluster of cells, which are randomly distributed spheres. Distribution of cells/cluster of cells can be calculated from histology data but it was assumed that this distribution is normal with the same mean value and standard deviation (100±50 mm). Second parameter, which was selected to define referent tumor, is volume density of cells (30%). In this referent tumor there are no necroses. Stroma is defined as space between spheres with same concentration of materials as in spheres. Results: Referent tumor defined on this way have about 2,2 10 5 cells or cluster of cells random distributed. Using this referent 3D tumor model and for same concentration of radionuclides (1:100) and energy of beta emitters (1000 keV) which are homogeneously distributed in labeled cells absorbed dose for all cells was calculated. Simulations are done using FOTELP Monte Carlo code, which is modified for this purposes. Results of absorbed dose in cells are given in numerical values (1D distribution) and as the images (2D or 3D distributions). Conclusion Geometrical module for Monte Carlo simulation study can be standardized by introducing referent 3D tumor model at cellular level. This referent 3D tumor model gives most realistic presentation of different tumors at the moment of their detectability. Referent 3D tumor model at

  12. Development of groundwater flow modeling for the low-level radwaste disposal (I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, Dae Seok; Kim, Chun Soo; Kim, Kyung Soo; Koh, Yong Kweon; Hwang, Yong Soo; Park, Hyun Soo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)

    1999-08-01

    Major problems facing in the hydrogeological assessment for a disposal site are resulted from the uncertainties involved in hydraulic parameters of geologic media and the limitation of field investigation methods. These technical problems are, in turn, closely related to the confidence level of numerical modeling results. This research project aims to establish the hydrogeologic assessment methodology suitable to domestic geologic environments with reference to the safety analysis and site characterization for a repository. 26 refs., 65 figs., 14 tabs. (Author)

  13. Use of a plant level logic model for quantitative assessment of systems interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, B.B.; Rees, D.C.; Kripps, L.P.; Hunt, R.N.; Bradley, M.

    1985-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has sponsored a research program to investigate methods for identifying systems interactions (SIs) and for the evaluation of their importance. Phase 1 of the EPRI research project focused on the evaluation of methods for identification of SIs. Major results of the Phase 1 activities are the documentation of four different methodologies for identification of potential SIs and development of guidelines for performing an effective plant walkdown in support of an SI analysis. Phase II of the project, currently being performed, is utilizing a plant level logic model of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to determine the quantitative importance of identified SIs. In Phase II, previously reported events involving interactions between systems were screened and selected on the basis of their relevance to the Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGandE) Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Power Plant design and perceived potential safety significance. Selected events were then incorporated into the BGandE plant level GO logic model. The model is being exercised to calculate the relative importance of these events. Five previously identified event scenarios, extracted from licensee event reports (LERs) are being evaluated during the course of the study. A key feature of the approach being used in Phase II is the use of a logic model in a manner to effectively evaluate the impact of events on the system level and the plant level for the mitigation of transients. Preliminary study results indicate that the developed methodology can be a viable and effective means for determining the quantitative significance of SIs

  14. Three-level models solvable in terms of the Clausen function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishkhanyan, Artur [Engineering Center of Armenian National Academy of Sciences, Ashtarak-2, 378410 (Armenia); Suominen, Kalle-Antti [Helsinki Institute of Physics, PL 64, FIN-00014 Helsingin yliopisto (Finland)

    2003-07-04

    The problem of analytical integrability of the three-level problem by reduction of the time-dependent Schroedinger equations to the third-order linear differential equation satisfied by the generalized hypergeometric functions {sub 3}F{sub 2} is considered. A total of 12 infinite classes of models solvable in terms of these functions is found, most of which are new and others are generalizations of the previously known families.

  15. Evaluation and modeling of the parameters affecting fluoride toxicity level in aquatic environments by bioassay method

    OpenAIRE

    Hamid Reza Shamsollahi; Hadi asady; Amir Hossein Mahvi; Zahra zolghadr

    2014-01-01

    Background: Fluoride exists in various forms in nature and water resources. , The rising level of fluoride in water resources due to discharge of industrial effluents can cause toxicity in aquatic organisms. To prevent toxicity, it is necessary to determine maximum fluoride toxicity as well as effluent discharge limits. The aim of this study was to determine the maximum fluoride toxicity and the factors affecting fluoride toxicity to provide a model in order to determine the effluent discha...

  16. A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method

    OpenAIRE

    Jun-He Yang; Ching-Hsue Cheng; Chia-Pan Chan

    2017-01-01

    Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting m...

  17. Three-level models solvable in terms of the Clausen function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishkhanyan, Artur; Suominen, Kalle-Antti

    2003-01-01

    The problem of analytical integrability of the three-level problem by reduction of the time-dependent Schroedinger equations to the third-order linear differential equation satisfied by the generalized hypergeometric functions 3 F 2 is considered. A total of 12 infinite classes of models solvable in terms of these functions is found, most of which are new and others are generalizations of the previously known families

  18. Numerical aspects of the modelling of the local effects of a high level waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreri, J.C.; Ventura, M.A.

    1985-01-01

    The numerical approximations adapted for the development of the computational models for the prediction of the effects of the emplacement of a high level waste repository are reviewed. The problems considered include: the thermal history of the rocky mass constituting the burial media, the flow of underground water and the associated migration of radionuclides in the same media. Results associated with verification of the implemented codes are presented. Their limitations and advantages are discussed. (Author) [es

  19. A Review of the Appropriateness of Existing Micro- and Meso-level Models of Athlete Development within Equestrian Sport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Haan, D.M.

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this paper was to use a case study approach to review the appropriateness of existing micro- and meso-level models of athlete development within the sport specific context of equestrianism. At a micro-level the Long Term Athlete Development (LTAD) model was chosen. At a meso-level, the

  20. Comparative analysis of elements and models of implementation in local-level spatial plans in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanović Nebojša

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Implementation of local-level spatial plans is of paramount importance to the development of the local community. This paper aims to demonstrate the importance of and offer further directions for research into the implementation of spatial plans by presenting the results of a study on models of implementation. The paper describes the basic theoretical postulates of a model for implementing spatial plans. A comparative analysis of the application of elements and models of implementation of plans in practice was conducted based on the spatial plans for the local municipalities of Arilje, Lazarevac and Sremska Mitrovica. The analysis includes four models of implementation: the strategy and policy of spatial development; spatial protection; the implementation of planning solutions of a technical nature; and the implementation of rules of use, arrangement and construction of spaces. The main results of the analysis are presented and used to give recommendations for improving the elements and models of implementation. Final deliberations show that models of implementation are generally used in practice and combined in spatial plans. Based on the analysis of how models of implementation are applied in practice, a general conclusion concerning the complex character of the local level of planning is presented and elaborated. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. TR 36035: Spatial, Environmental, Energy and Social Aspects of Developing Settlements and Climate Change - Mutual Impacts and Grant no. III 47014: The Role and Implementation of the National Spatial Plan and Regional Development Documents in Renewal of Strategic Research, Thinking and Governance in Serbia

  1. Validation of SWAT+ at field level and comparison with previous SWAT models in simulating hydrologic quantity

    Science.gov (United States)

    GAO, J.; White, M. J.; Bieger, K.; Yen, H.; Arnold, J. G.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past 20 years, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been adopted by many researches to assess water quantity and quality in watersheds around the world. As the demand increases in facilitating model support, maintenance, and future development, the SWAT source code and data have undergone major modifications over the past few years. To make the model more flexible in terms of interactions of spatial units and processes occurring in watersheds, a completely revised version of SWAT (SWAT+) was developed to improve SWAT's ability in water resource modelling and management. There are only several applications of SWAT+ in large watersheds, however, no study pays attention to validate the new model at field level and assess its performance. To test the basic hydrologic function of SWAT+, it was implemented in five field cases across five states in the U.S. and compared the SWAT+ created results with that from the previous models at the same fields. Additionally, an automatic calibration tool was used to test which model is easier to be calibrated well in a limited number of parameter adjustments. The goal of the study was to evaluate the performance of SWAT+ in simulating stream flow on field level at different geographical locations. The results demonstrate that SWAT+ demonstrated similar performance with previous SWAT model, but the flexibility offered by SWAT+ via the connection of different spatial objects can result in a more accurate simulation of hydrological processes in spatial, especially for watershed with artificial facilities. Autocalibration shows that SWAT+ is much easier to obtain a satisfied result compared with the previous SWAT. Although many capabilities have already been enhanced in SWAT+, there exist inaccuracies in simulation. This insufficiency will be improved with advancements in scientific knowledge on hydrologic process in specific watersheds. Currently, SWAT+ is prerelease, and any errors are being addressed.

  2. Aerostructural Level Set Topology Optimization for a Common Research Model Wing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, Peter D.; Stanford, Bret K.; Kim, H. Alicia

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to use level set topology optimization to improve the design of a representative wing box structure for the NASA common research model. The objective is to minimize the total compliance of the structure under aerodynamic and body force loading, where the aerodynamic loading is coupled to the structural deformation. A taxi bump case was also considered, where only body force loads were applied. The trim condition that aerodynamic lift must balance the total weight of the aircraft is enforced by allowing the root angle of attack to change. The level set optimization method is implemented on an unstructured three-dimensional grid, so that the method can optimize a wing box with arbitrary geometry. Fast matching and upwind schemes are developed for an unstructured grid, which make the level set method robust and efficient. The adjoint method is used to obtain the coupled shape sensitivities required to perform aerostructural optimization of the wing box structure.

  3. Greenland uplift and regional sea level changes from ICESat observations and GIA modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spada, G.; Ruggieri, G.; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg

    2012-01-01

    ‐resolution GrIS mass balance, we study the time‐variations of various geophysical quantities in response to the current mass loss. They include vertical uplift and subsidence, geoid height variations, global patterns of sea level change (or fingerprints), and regional sea level variations along the coasts...... of Greenland. Long‐wavelength uplifts and gravity variations in response to current or past ice thickness variations are obtained solving the sea level equation, which accounts for both the elastic and the viscoelastic components of deformation. To capture the short‐wavelength components of vertical uplift...... in response to current ice mass loss, which is not resolved by satellite gravity observations, we have specifically developed a high‐resolution regional elastic rebound (ER) model. The elastic component of vertical uplift is combined with estimates of the viscoelastic displacement fields associated...

  4. Analytical model for real time, noninvasive estimation of blood glucose level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhyapak, Anoop; Sidley, Matthew; Venkataraman, Jayanti

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents an analytical model to estimate blood glucose level from measurements made non-invasively and in real time by an antenna strapped to a patient's wrist. Some promising success has been shown by the RIT ETA Lab research group that an antenna's resonant frequency can track, in real time, changes in glucose concentration. Based on an in-vitro study of blood samples of diabetic patients, the paper presents a modified Cole-Cole model that incorporates a factor to represent the change in glucose level. A calibration technique using the input impedance technique is discussed and the results show a good estimation as compared to the glucose meter readings. An alternate calibration methodology has been developed that is based on the shift in the antenna resonant frequency using an equivalent circuit model containing a shunt capacitor to represent the shift in resonant frequency with changing glucose levels. Work under progress is the optimization of the technique with a larger sample of patients.

  5. Status of Safeguards and Separations Model Development at Plant and Molecular Levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Almeida, Valmor F [ORNL; Hay, Benjamin [ORNL; DePaoli, David W [ORNL

    2009-10-01

    A primary goal of the Safeguards and Separations IPSC effort is the development of process modeling tools that allow dynamic simulations of separations plant operations under various configurations and conditions, and integration of relevant safeguards analyses. A requirement of the effort is to develop codes on modern, expandable architectures, with flexibility to explore and evaluate a wide range of process options. During FY09, efforts at ORNL have been focused on two priority tasks toward achieving the IPSC goal: (1) a top-down exploration of architecture - Subtask 1: Explore framework for code development and integration for plant-level simulation; and (2) a bottom-up fundamental modeling effort - Subtask 2: Development of molecular-level agent design code. Subtask 1 is important because definition and development of architecture is a key issue for the overall effort, as selection of an overall approach and code/data requirements is a necessary first step in the organization, design and development of separations and safeguards codes that will be incorporated. The agent design effort of Subtask 2 is a molecular-level modeling effort that has a direct impact on a near-term issue of the Separations and Waste Forms Campaign. A current focus of experimental efforts is the development of robust agents and processes for separation of Am/Cm. Development of enhanced agent-design codes will greatly accelerate discovery and experimental testing.

  6. Status of Safeguards and Separations Model Development at Plant and Molecular Levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    de Almeida, Valmor F.; Hay, Benjamin; DePaoli, David W.

    2009-01-01

    A primary goal of the Safeguards and Separations IPSC effort is the development of process modeling tools that allow dynamic simulations of separations plant operations under various configurations and conditions, and integration of relevant safeguards analyses. A requirement of the effort is to develop codes on modern, expandable architectures, with flexibility to explore and evaluate a wide range of process options. During FY09, efforts at ORNL have been focused on two priority tasks toward achieving the IPSC goal: (1) a top-down exploration of architecture - Subtask 1: Explore framework for code development and integration for plant-level simulation; and (2) a bottom-up fundamental modeling effort - Subtask 2: Development of molecular-level agent design code. Subtask 1 is important because definition and development of architecture is a key issue for the overall effort, as selection of an overall approach and code/data requirements is a necessary first step in the organization, design and development of separations and safeguards codes that will be incorporated. The agent design effort of Subtask 2 is a molecular-level modeling effort that has a direct impact on a near-term issue of the Separations and Waste Forms Campaign. A current focus of experimental efforts is the development of robust agents and processes for separation of Am/Cm. Development of enhanced agent-design codes will greatly accelerate discovery and experimental testing.

  7. The PSACOIN level 1B exercise: A probabilistic code intercomparison involving a four compartment biosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, R.A.; Sinclair, J.E.; Torres, C.; Mobbs, S.F.; Galson, D.A.

    1991-01-01

    The probabilistic Systems Assessment Code (PSAC) User Group of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency has organised a series of code intercomparison studies of relevance to the performance assessment of underground repositories for radioactive wastes - known collectively by the name PSACOIN. The latest of these to be undertaken is designated PSACOIN Level 1b, and the case specification provides a complete assessment model of the behaviour of radionuclides following release into the biosphere. PSACOIN Level 1b differs from other biosphere oriented intercomparison exercises in that individual dose is the end point of the calculations as opposed to any other intermediate quantity. The PSACOIN Level 1b case specification describes a simple source term which is used to simulate the release of activity to the biosphere from certain types of near surface waste repository, the transport of radionuclides through the biosphere and their eventual uptake by humankind. The biosphere sub model comprises 4 compartments representing top and deep soil layers, river water and river sediment. The transport of radionuclides between the physical compartments is described by ten transfer coefficients and doses to humankind arise from the simultaneous consumption of water, fish, meat, milk, and grain as well as from dust inhalation and external γ-irradiation. The parameters of the exposure pathway sub model are chosen to be representative of an individual living in a small agrarian community. (13 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.)

  8. Simulation of Water Level Fluctuations in a Hydraulic System Using a Coupled Liquid-Gas Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Wang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A model for simulating vertical water level fluctuations with coupled liquid and gas phases is presented. The Preissmann implicit scheme is used to linearize the governing equations for one-dimensional transient flow for both liquid and gas phases, and the linear system is solved using the chasing method. Some classical cases for single liquid and gas phase transients in pipelines and networks are studied to verify that the proposed methods are accurate and reliable. The implicit scheme is extended using a dynamic mesh to simulate the water level fluctuations in a U-tube and an open surge tank without consideration of the gas phase. Methods of coupling liquid and gas phases are presented and used for studying the transient process and interaction between the phases, for gas phase limited in a chamber and gas phase transported in a pipeline. In particular, two other simplified models, one neglecting the effect of the gas phase on the liquid phase and the other one coupling the liquid and gas phases asynchronously, are proposed. The numerical results indicate that the asynchronous model performs better, and are finally applied to a hydropower station with surge tanks and air shafts to simulate the water level fluctuations and air speed.

  9. Estimating Derived Response Levels at the Savannah River Site for Use with Emergency Response Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2002-01-01

    Emergency response computer models at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are coupled with real-time meteorological data to estimate dose to individuals downwind of accidental radioactive releases. Currently, these models estimate doses for inhalation and shine pathways, but do not consider dose due to ingestion of contaminated food products. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has developed derived intervention levels (DIL) which refer to the radionuclide-specific concentration in food present throughout the relevant period of time, with no intervention, that could lead to an individual receiving a radiation dose equal to the protective action guide. In the event of an emergency, concentrations in various food types are compared with these levels to make interdictions decisions. Prior to monitoring results being available, concentrations in the environmental media (i.e. soil), called derived response levels (DRLs), can be estimated from the DILs and directly compared with computer output to provide preliminary guidance as to whether intervention is necessary. Site-specific derived response levels (DRLs) are developed for ingestion pathways pertinent to SRS: milk, meat, fish, grain, produce, and beverage. This provides decision-makers with an additional tool for use immediately following an accident prior to the acquisition of food monitoring data

  10. Improving the description of collective effects within the combinatorial model of nuclear level densities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilaire, S.; Girod, M.; Goriely, S.

    2011-01-01

    The combinatorial model of nuclear level densities has now reached a level of accuracy comparable to that of the best global analytical expressions without suffering from the limits imposed by the statistical hypothesis on which the latter expressions rely. In particular, it provides naturally, non Gaussian spin distribution as well as non equipartition of parities which are known to have a significant impact on cross section predictions at low energies. Our first global model developed in Ref. 1 suffered from deficiencies, in particular in the way the collective effects - both vibrational and rotational - were treated. We have recently improved this treatment using simultaneously the single particle levels and collective properties predicted by a newly derived Gogny interaction, therefore enabling a microscopic description of energy-dependent shell, pairing and deformation effects. In addition, for deformed nuclei, the transition to sphericity is coherently taken into account on the basis of a temperature-dependent Hartree-Fock calculation which provides at each temperature the structure properties needed to build the level densities. This new method is described and shown to give promising preliminary results with respect to available experimental data. (authors)

  11. Why weight? Modelling sample and observational level variability improves power in RNA-seq analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ruijie; Holik, Aliaksei Z; Su, Shian; Jansz, Natasha; Chen, Kelan; Leong, Huei San; Blewitt, Marnie E; Asselin-Labat, Marie-Liesse; Smyth, Gordon K; Ritchie, Matthew E

    2015-09-03

    Variations in sample quality are frequently encountered in small RNA-sequencing experiments, and pose a major challenge in a differential expression analysis. Removal of high variation samples reduces noise, but at a cost of reducing power, thus limiting our ability to detect biologically meaningful changes. Similarly, retaining these samples in the analysis may not reveal any statistically significant changes due to the higher noise level. A compromise is to use all available data, but to down-weight the observations from more variable samples. We describe a statistical approach that facilitates this by modelling heterogeneity at both the sample and observational levels as part of the differential expression analysis. At the sample level this is achieved by fitting a log-linear variance model that includes common sample-specific or group-specific parameters that are shared between genes. The estimated sample variance factors are then converted to weights and combined with observational level weights obtained from the mean-variance relationship of the log-counts-per-million using 'voom'. A comprehensive analysis involving both simulations and experimental RNA-sequencing data demonstrates that this strategy leads to a universally more powerful analysis and fewer false discoveries when compared to conventional approaches. This methodology has wide application and is implemented in the open-source 'limma' package. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  12. Atmospheric Dispersion Simulation for Level 3 PSA at Ulchin Nuclear Site using a PUFF model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seung Jun; Han, Seok-Jung; Jeong, Hyojoon; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Air dispersion prediction is a key in the level 3 PSA to predict radiation releases into the environment for preparing an effective strategy for an evacuation as a basis of the emergency preparedness. To predict the atmospheric dispersion accurately, the specific conditions of the radiation release location should be considered. There are various level 3 PSA tools and MACSS2 is one of the widely used level 3 PSA tools in many countries including Korea. Due to the characteristics of environmental conditions in Korea, it should be demonstrated that environmental conditions of Korea nuclear sites can be appropriately illustrated by the tool. In Korea, because all nuclear power plants are located on coasts, sea and land breezes might be a significant factor. The objectives of this work is to simulate the atmospheric dispersion for Ulchin nuclear site in Korea using a PUFF model and to generate the data which can be used for the comparison with that of PLUME model. A nuclear site has own atmospheric dispersion characteristics. Especially in Korea, nuclear sites are located at coasts and it is expected that see and land breeze effects are relatively high. In this work, the atmospheric dispersion at Ulchin nuclear site was simulated to evaluate the effect of see and land breezes in four seasons. In the simulation results, it was observed that the wind direction change with time has a large effect on atmospheric dispersion. If the result of a PLUME model is more conservative than most severe case of a PUFF model, then the PLUME model could be used for Korea nuclear sites in terms of safety assessment.

  13. Exploring Secondary Students' Epistemological Features Depending on the Evaluation Levels of the Group Model on Blood Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shinyoung; Kim, Heui-Baik

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify the epistemological features and model qualities depending on model evaluation levels and to explore the reasoning process behind high-level evaluation through small group interaction about blood circulation. Nine groups of three to four students in the eighth grade participated in the modeling practice.…

  14. Why are models unable to reproduce multi-decadal trends in lower tropospheric baseline ozone levels?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, L.; Liu, J.; Mickley, L. J.; Strahan, S. E.; Steenrod, S.

    2017-12-01

    Assessments of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing rely on accurate model simulations. Parrish et al (2014) found that three chemistry-climate models (CCMs) overestimate present-day O3 mixing ratios and capture only 50% of the observed O3 increase over the last five decades at 12 baseline sites in the northern mid-latitudes, indicating large uncertainties in our understanding of the ozone trends and their implications for radiative forcing. Here we present comparisons of outputs from two chemical transport models (CTMs) - GEOS-Chem and the Global Modeling Initiative model - with O3 observations from the same sites and from the global ozonesonde network. Both CTMs are driven by reanalysis meteorological data (MERRA or MERRA2) and thus are expected to be different in atmospheric transport processes relative to those freely running CCMs. We test whether recent model developments leading to more active ozone chemistry affect the computed ozone sensitivity to perturbations in emissions. Preliminary results suggest these CTMs can reproduce present-day ozone levels but fail to capture the multi-decadal trend since 1980. Both models yield widespread overpredictions of free tropospheric ozone in the 1980s. Sensitivity studies in GEOS-Chem suggest that the model estimate of natural background ozone is too high. We discuss factors that contribute to the variability and trends of tropospheric ozone over the last 30 years, with a focus on intermodel differences in spatial resolution and in the representation of stratospheric chemistry, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, halogen chemistry, and biogenic VOC emissions and chemistry. We also discuss uncertainty in the historical emission inventories used in models, and how these affect the simulated ozone trends.

  15. Development of a Coupled Hydrological/Sediment Yield Model for a Watershed at Regional Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajbhandaril, Narayan; Crosson, William; Tsegaye, Teferi; Coleman, Tommy; Liu, Yaping; Soman, Vishwas

    1998-01-01

    Development of a hydrologic model for the study of environmental conservation requires a comprehensive understanding of individual-storm affecting hydrologic and sedimentologic processes. The hydrologic models that we are currently coupling are the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS) and the Distributed Runoff Model (DRUM). SHEELS runs continuously to estimate surface energy fluxes and sub-surface soil water fluxes, while DRUM operates during and following precipitation events to predict surface runoff and peak flow through channel routing. The lateral re-distribution of surface water determined by DRUM is passed to SHEELS, which then adjusts soil water contents throughout the profile. The model SHEELS is well documented in Smith et al. (1993) and Laymen and Crosson (1995). The model DRUM is well documented in Vieux et al. (1990) and Vieux and Gauer (1994). The coupled hydrologic model, SHEELS/DRUM, does not simulate sedimentologic processes. The simulation of the sedimentologic process is important for environmental conservation planning and management. Therefore, we attempted to develop a conceptual frame work for coupling a sediment yield model with SHEELS/DRUM to estimate individual-storm sediment yield from a watershed at a regional level. The sediment yield model that will be used for this study is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with some modifications to enable the model to predict individual-storm sediment yield. The predicted sediment yield does not include wind erosion and erosion caused by irrigation and snow melt. Units used for this study are those given by Foster et al. (1981) for SI units.

  16. Development of System Model for Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of TRIGA PUSPATI Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tom, P.P; Mazleha Maskin; Ahmad Hassan Sallehudin Mohd Sarif; Faizal Mohamed; Mohd Fazli Zakaria; Shaharum Ramli; Muhamad Puad Abu

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear safety is a very big issue in the world. As a consequence of the accident at Fukushima, Japan, most of the reactors in the world have been reviewed their safety of the reactors including also research reactors. To develop Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of TRIGA PUSPATI Reactor (RTP), three organizations are involved; Nuclear Malaysia, AELB and UKM. PSA methodology is a logical, deductive technique which specifies an undesired top event and uses fault trees and event trees to model the various parallel and sequential combinations of failures that might lead to an undesired event. Fault Trees (FT) methodology is use in developing of system models. At the lowest level, the Basic Events (BE) of the fault trees (components failure and human errors) are assigned probability distributions. In this study, Risk Spectrum software used to construct the fault trees and analyze the system models. The results of system models analysis such as core damage frequency (CDF), minimum cut set (MCS) and common cause failure (CCF) uses to support decision making for upgrading or modification of the RTP?s safety system. (author)

  17. Modeling the Population-Level Processes of Biodiversity Gain and Loss at Geological Timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortelius, Mikael; Geritz, Stefan; Gyllenberg, Mats; Raia, Pasquale; Toivonen, Jaakko

    2015-12-01

    The path of species diversification is commonly observed by inspecting the fossil record. Yet, how species diversity changes at geological timescales relate to lower-level processes remains poorly understood. Here we use mathematical models of spatially structured populations to show that natural selection and gradual environmental change give rise to discontinuous phenotype changes that can be connected to speciation and extinction at the macroevolutionary level. In our model, new phenotypes arise in the middle of the environmental gradient, while newly appearing environments are filled by existing phenotypes shifting their adaptive optima. Slow environmental change leads to loss of phenotypes in the middle of the extant environmental range, whereas fast change causes extinction at one extreme of the environmental range. We compared our model predictions against a well-known yet partially unexplained pattern of intense hoofed mammal diversification associated with grassland expansion during the Late Miocene. We additionally used the model outcomes to cast new insight into Cope's law of the unspecialized. Our general finding is that the rate of environmental change determines where generation and loss of diversity occur in the phenotypic and physical spaces.

  18. Comparison of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels using Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling versus Regional Frequency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, C. A.; Skahill, B. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Karlovits, G. S.; England, J. F.; Duren, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    We compare gridded extreme precipitation return levels obtained using spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) with their respective counterparts from a traditional regional frequency analysis (RFA) using the same set of extreme precipitation data. Our study area is the 11,478 square mile Willamette River basin (WRB) located in northwestern Oregon, a major tributary of the Columbia River whose 187 miles long main stem, the Willamette River, flows northward between the Coastal and Cascade Ranges. The WRB contains approximately two ­thirds of Oregon's population and 20 of the 25 most populous cities in the state. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Portland District operates thirteen dams and extreme precipitation estimates are required to support risk­ informed hydrologic analyses as part of the USACE Dam Safety Program. Our intent is to profile for the USACE an alternate methodology to an RFA that was developed in 2008 due to the lack of an official NOAA Atlas 14 update for the state of Oregon. We analyze 24-hour annual precipitation maxima data for the WRB utilizing the spatial BHM R package "spatial.gev.bma", which has been shown to be efficient in developing coherent maps of extreme precipitation by return level. Our BHM modeling analysis involved application of leave-one-out cross validation (LOO-CV), which not only supported model selection but also a comprehensive assessment of location specific model performance. The LOO-CV results will provide a basis for the BHM RFA comparison.

  19. Preliminary Consideration for the Development of Regulatory Level 2 PSA Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang-Ju

    2006-01-01

    In order to assess the validity of PSA (probabilistic safety assessment) results and to establish regulatory requirements for relevant safety issues most of the regulators want to develop an independent and convenient risk assessment model including Level 2 PSA area. As this model and framework should be implicitly independent on the licensee's PSA model, it has a primary objective directly for applying to the risk-informed regulatory affairs and for supporting those kinds of works. According this, the regulator can take an objective view for the uncertainty of risk information made by the licensee and keep up the capability and decision-making framework for overall risk assessment results. In addition, the regulatory model may be used to verify and validate the operational risk levels of all engineered safety features of nuclear power plants (NPPs). An issue for plant-specific application of safety goals was previously identified in the US NRC's risk-informed regulatory guidance development activities, and discussed in many Commission papers, e. g. SECY-97-287, which identifies the goal for large early release frequency (LERF). LERF defines a containment performance criteria derived from the quantitative health objectives. As we know, the LERF was chosen to assess risk significance in Regulatory Guide 1.174 (2002) again, which provides one measure of the performance of the containment barrier, and represents a surrogate for early health effects

  20. Low level radiation: how does the linear without threshold model provide the safety of Canadian

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2010-01-01

    The linear without threshold model is a model of risk used worldwide by the most of health organisms of nuclear regulation in order to establish dose limits for workers and public. It is in the heart of the approach adopted by the Canadian commission of nuclear safety (C.C.S.N.) in matter of radiation protection. The linear without threshold model presumes reasonably it exists a direct link between radiation exposure and cancer rate. It does not exist scientific evidence that chronicle exposure to radiation doses under 100 milli sievert (mSv) leads harmful effects on health. Several scientific reports highlighted scientific evidences that seem indicate a low level of radiation is less harmful than the linear without threshold predicts. As the linear without threshold model presumes that any radiation exposure brings risks, the ALARA principle obliges the licensees to get the radiation exposure at the lowest reasonably achievable level, social and economical factors taken into account. ALARA principle constitutes a basic principle in the C.C.S.N. approach in matter of radiation protection; On the radiation protection plan, C.C.S.N. gets a careful approach that allows to provide health and safety of Canadian people and the protection of their environment. (N.C.)

  1. Numerical Modelling of Three-Fluid Flow Using The Level-set Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongying; Lou, Jing; Shang, Zhi

    2014-11-01

    This work presents a numerical model for simulation of three-fluid flow involving two different moving interfaces. These interfaces are captured using the level-set method via two different level-set functions. A combined formulation with only one set of conservation equations for the whole physical domain, consisting of the three different immiscible fluids, is employed. Numerical solution is performed on a fixed mesh using the finite volume method. Surface tension effect is incorporated using the Continuum Surface Force model. Validation of the present model is made against available results for stratified flow and rising bubble in a container with a free surface. Applications of the present model are demonstrated by a variety of three-fluid flow systems including (1) three-fluid stratified flow, (2) two-fluid stratified flow carrying the third fluid in the form of drops and (3) simultaneous rising and settling of two drops in a stationary third fluid. The work is supported by a Thematic and Strategic Research from A*STAR, Singapore (Ref. #: 1021640075).

  2. Virtual design and optimization studies for industrial silicon microphones applying tailored system-level modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuenzig, Thomas; Dehé, Alfons; Krumbein, Ulrich; Schrag, Gabriele

    2018-05-01

    Maxing out the technological limits in order to satisfy the customers’ demands and obtain the best performance of micro-devices and-systems is a challenge of today’s manufacturers. Dedicated system simulation is key to investigate the potential of device and system concepts in order to identify the best design w.r.t. the given requirements. We present a tailored, physics-based system-level modeling approach combining lumped with distributed models that provides detailed insight into the device and system operation at low computational expense. The resulting transparent, scalable (i.e. reusable) and modularly composed models explicitly contain the physical dependency on all relevant parameters, thus being well suited for dedicated investigation and optimization of MEMS devices and systems. This is demonstrated for an industrial capacitive silicon microphone. The performance of such microphones is determined by distributed effects like viscous damping and inhomogeneous capacitance variation across the membrane as well as by system-level phenomena like package-induced acoustic effects and the impact of the electronic circuitry for biasing and read-out. The here presented model covers all relevant figures of merit and, thus, enables to evaluate the optimization potential of silicon microphones towards high fidelity applications. This work was carried out at the Technical University of Munich, Chair for Physics of Electrotechnology. Thomas Kuenzig is now with Infineon Technologies AG, Neubiberg.

  3. Modeling canopy-level productivity: is the "big-leaf" simplification acceptable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprintsin, M.; Chen, J. M.

    2009-05-01

    The "big-leaf" approach to calculating the carbon balance of plant canopies assumes that canopy carbon fluxes have the same relative responses to the environment as any single unshaded leaf in the upper canopy. Widely used light use efficiency models are essentially simplified versions of the big-leaf model. Despite its wide acceptance, subsequent developments in the modeling of leaf photosynthesis and measurements of canopy physiology have brought into question the assumptions behind this approach showing that big leaf approximation is inadequate for simulating canopy photosynthesis because of the additional leaf internal control on carbon assimilation and because of the non-linear response of photosynthesis on leaf nitrogen and absorbed light, and changes in leaf microenvironment with canopy depth. To avoid this problem a sunlit/shaded leaf separation approach, within which the vegetation is treated as two big leaves under different illumination conditions, is gradually replacing the "big-leaf" strategy, for applications at local and regional scales. Such separation is now widely accepted as a more accurate and physiologically based approach for modeling canopy photosynthesis. Here we compare both strategies for Gross Primary Production (GPP) modeling using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) at local (tower footprint) scale for different land cover types spread over North America: two broadleaf forests (Harvard, Massachusetts and Missouri Ozark, Missouri); two coniferous forests (Howland, Maine and Old Black Spruce, Saskatchewan); Lost Creek shrubland site (Wisconsin) and Mer Bleue petland (Ontario). BEPS calculates carbon fixation by scaling Farquhar's leaf biochemical model up to canopy level with stomatal conductance estimated by a modified version of the Ball-Woodrow-Berry model. The "big-leaf" approach was parameterized using derived leaf level parameters scaled up to canopy level by means of Leaf Area Index. The influence of sunlit

  4. Mediation in dyadic data at the level of the dyads: a Structural Equation Modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledermann, Thomas; Macho, Siegfried

    2009-10-01

    An extended version of the Common Fate Model (CFM) is presented to estimate and test mediation in dyadic data. The model can be used for distinguishable dyad members (e.g., heterosexual couples) or indistinguishable dyad members (e.g., homosexual couples) if (a) the variables measure characteristics of the dyadic relationship or shared external influences that affect both partners; if (b) the causal associations between the variables should be analyzed at the dyadic level; and if (c) the measured variables are reliable indicators of the latent variables. To assess mediation using Structural Equation Modeling, a general three-step procedure is suggested. The first is a selection of a good fitting model, the second a test of the direct effects, and the third a test of the mediating effect by means of bootstrapping. The application of the model along with the procedure for assessing mediation is illustrated using data from 184 couples on marital problems, communication, and marital quality. Differences with the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model and the analysis of longitudinal mediation by using the CFM are discussed.

  5. Modeling effects of traffic and landscape characteristics on ambient nitrogen dioxide levels in Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skene, Katherine J.; Gent, Janneane F.; McKay, Lisa A.; Belanger, Kathleen; Leaderer, Brian P.; Holford, Theodore R.

    2010-12-01

    An integrated exposure model was developed that estimates nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) concentration at residences using geographic information systems (GIS) and variables derived within residential buffers representing traffic volume and landscape characteristics including land use, population density and elevation. Multiple measurements of NO 2 taken outside of 985 residences in Connecticut were used to develop the model. A second set of 120 outdoor NO 2 measurements as well as cross-validation were used to validate the model. The model suggests that approximately 67% of the variation in NO 2 levels can be explained by: traffic and land use primarily within 2 km of a residence; population density; elevation; and time of year. Potential benefits of this model for health effects research include improved spatial estimations of traffic-related pollutant exposure and reduced need for extensive pollutant measurements. The model, which could be calibrated and applied in areas other than Connecticut, has importance as a tool for exposure estimation in epidemiological studies of traffic-related air pollution.

  6. Multi-valley effective mass theory for device-level modeling of open quantum dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, N. Tobias; Baczewski, Andrew D.; Frees, Adam; Gamble, John King; Montano, Ines; Moussa, Jonathan E.; Muller, Richard P.; Nielsen, Erik

    2015-03-01

    Simple models for semiconductor-based quantum information processors can provide useful qualitative descriptions of device behavior. However, as experimental implementations have matured, more specific guidance from theory has become necessary, particularly in the form of quantitatively reliable yet computationally efficient modeling. Besides modeling static device properties, improved characterization of noisy gate operations requires a more sophisticated description of device dynamics. Making use of recent developments in multi-valley effective mass theory, we discuss device-level simulations of the open system quantum dynamics of a qubit interacting with phonons and other noise sources. Sandia is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract No. DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  7. Charge transport model in nanodielectric composites based on quantum tunneling mechanism and dual-level traps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Guochang; Chen, George, E-mail: gc@ecs.soton.ac.uk, E-mail: sli@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China); School of Electronic and Computer Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Li, Shengtao, E-mail: gc@ecs.soton.ac.uk, E-mail: sli@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)

    2016-08-08

    Charge transport properties in nanodielectrics present different tendencies for different loading concentrations. The exact mechanisms that are responsible for charge transport in nanodielectrics are not detailed, especially for high loading concentration. A charge transport model in nanodielectrics has been proposed based on quantum tunneling mechanism and dual-level traps. In the model, the thermally assisted hopping (TAH) process for the shallow traps and the tunnelling process for the deep traps are considered. For different loading concentrations, the dominant charge transport mechanisms are different. The quantum tunneling mechanism plays a major role in determining the charge conduction in nanodielectrics with high loading concentrations. While for low loading concentrations, the thermal hopping mechanism will dominate the charge conduction process. The model can explain the observed conductivity property in nanodielectrics with different loading concentrations.

  8. Mathematical modelling of heat production in deep geological repository of high-level nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovanda, O.

    2017-01-01

    Waste produced by nuclear industry requires special handling. Currently, there is a research taking place, focused at possibilities of nuclear waste storage in deep geological repositories, hosted in stable geological environment. The high-level nuclear waste produces significant amount of heat for a long time, which can affect either environment outside of or within the repository in a negative way. Therefore to reduce risks, it is desirable to know the principles of such heat production, which can be achieved using mathematical modeling. This thesis comes up with a general model of heat production-time dependency, dependable on initial composition of the waste. To be able to model real situations, output of this thesis needs to be utilized in an IT solution. (authors)

  9. Levels of prospective science teachers’ ability to structure 5E model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaçan Sibel Demir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The research was conducted with 3rd year prospective science students, who study at the science teaching department of a university in Istanbul province. For that purpose, 34 prospective science teachers cooperated and participated in the study. In the study, the prospective teachers were asked to select a certain subject and plan that subject in accordance with the 5E model. Therefore, the objective of the study is to determine the levels of prospective science teachers’ ability to structure the 5E model. The data retrieved from the study were analyzed ad compared through content analysis and percentages. The results of the study suggest that some prospective teachers are not sufficient at each phase of the 5E model, thereby the researchers made suggestions for that situation.

  10. Leading bureaucracies to the tipping point: An alternative model of multiple stable equilibrium levels of corruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caulkins, Jonathan P.; Feichtinger, Gustav; Grass, Dieter; Hartl, Richard F.; Kort, Peter M.; Novak, Andreas J.; Seidl, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    We present a novel model of corruption dynamics in the form of a nonlinear optimal dynamic control problem. It has a tipping point, but one whose origins and character are distinct from that in the classic Schelling (1978) model. The decision maker choosing a level of corruption is the chief or some other kind of authority figure who presides over a bureaucracy whose state of corruption is influenced by the authority figure’s actions, and whose state in turn influences the pay-off for the authority figure. The policy interpretation is somewhat more optimistic than in other tipping models, and there are some surprising implications, notably that reforming the bureaucracy may be of limited value if the bureaucracy takes its cues from a corrupt leader. PMID:23565027

  11. Leading bureaucracies to the tipping point: An alternative model of multiple stable equilibrium levels of corruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caulkins, Jonathan P; Feichtinger, Gustav; Grass, Dieter; Hartl, Richard F; Kort, Peter M; Novak, Andreas J; Seidl, Andrea

    2013-03-16

    We present a novel model of corruption dynamics in the form of a nonlinear optimal dynamic control problem. It has a tipping point, but one whose origins and character are distinct from that in the classic Schelling (1978) model. The decision maker choosing a level of corruption is the chief or some other kind of authority figure who presides over a bureaucracy whose state of corruption is influenced by the authority figure's actions, and whose state in turn influences the pay-off for the authority figure. The policy interpretation is somewhat more optimistic than in other tipping models, and there are some surprising implications, notably that reforming the bureaucracy may be of limited value if the bureaucracy takes its cues from a corrupt leader.

  12. Nonlinear Jaynes–Cummings model for two interacting two-level atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos-Sánchez, O de los; González-Gutiérrez, C; Récamier, J

    2016-01-01

    In this work we examine a nonlinear version of the Jaynes–Cummings model for two identical two-level atoms allowing for Ising-like and dipole–dipole interplays between them. The model is said to be nonlinear in the sense that it can incorporate both a general intensity-dependent interaction between the atomic system and the cavity field and/or the presence of a nonlinear medium inside the cavity. As an example, we consider a particular type of atom-field coupling based upon the so-called Buck–Sukumar model and a lossless Kerr-like cavity. We describe the possible effects of such features on the evolution of some quantities of current interest, such as atomic excitation, purity, concurrence, the entropy of the field and the evolution of the latter in phase space. (paper)

  13. Automatic Generation of Building Models with Levels of Detail 1-3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguatem, W.; Drauschke, M.; Mayer, H.

    2016-06-01

    We present a workflow for the automatic generation of building models with levels of detail (LOD) 1 to 3 according to the CityGML standard (Gröger et al., 2012). We start with orienting unsorted image sets employing (Mayer et al., 2012), we compute depth maps using semi-global matching (SGM) (Hirschmüller, 2008), and fuse these depth maps to reconstruct dense 3D point clouds (Kuhn et al., 2014). Based on planes segmented from these point clouds, we have developed a stochastic method for roof model selection (Nguatem et al., 2013) and window model selection (Nguatem et al., 2014). We demonstrate our workflow up to the export into CityGML.

  14. Goal-directed behaviour and instrumental devaluation: a neural system-level computational model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Mannella

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Devaluation is the key experimental paradigm used to demonstrate the presence of instrumental behaviours guided by goals in mammals. We propose a neural system-level computational model to address the question of which brain mechanisms allow the current value of rewards to control instrumental actions. The model pivots on and shows the computational soundness of the hypothesis for which the internal representation of instrumental manipulanda (e.g., levers activate the representation of rewards (or `action-outcomes', e.g. foods while attributing to them a value which depends on the current internal state of the animal (e.g., satiation for some but not all foods. The model also proposes an initial hypothesis of the integrated system of key brain components supporting this process and allowing the recalled outcomes to bias action selection: (a the sub-system formed by the basolateral amygdala and insular cortex acquiring the manipulanda-outcomes associations and attributing the current value to the outcomes; (b the three basal ganglia-cortical loops selecting respectively goals, associative sensory representations, and actions; (c the cortico-cortical and striato-nigro-striatal neural pathways supporting the selection, and selection learning, of actions based on habits and goals. The model reproduces and integrates the results of different devaluation experiments carried out with control rats and rats with pre- and post-training lesions of the basolateral amygdala, the nucleus accumbens core, the prelimbic cortex, and the dorso-medial striatum. The results support the soundness of the hypotheses of the model and show its capacity to integrate, at the system-level, the operations of the key brain structures underlying devaluation. Based on its hypotheses and predictions, the model also represents an operational framework to support the design and analysis of new experiments on the motivational aspects of goal-directed behaviour.

  15. Effects of omega-3 supplementation on interleukin and neurotrophin levels in an animal model of schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEXANDRA I. ZUGNO

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTNew studies suggest that polyunsaturated fatty acids, such as omega-3, may reduce the symptoms of schizophrenia. The present study evaluated the preventive effect of omega-3 on interleukines (IL and neurotrophin brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF levels in the brains of young rats subjected to a model of schizophrenia. Treatment was performed over 21 days, starting on the 30th day of rat's life. After 14 days of treatment with omega-3 or vehicle, a concomitant treatment with saline or ketamine (25 mg/kg was started and maintained until the last day of the experiment. BDNF levels in the rat's prefrontal cortex were decreased at 1 h and 24 h after the last administration of ketamine, whereas the group administered with ketamine and omega-3 showed a decrease in BDNF levels only after 24 h. In contrast, both interventions induced similar responses in levels of IL-1β and IL6. These findings suggest that the similarity of IL-1β and IL6 levels in our experimental groups is due to the mechanism of action of ketamine on the immune system. More studies have to be carried out to explain this pathology. In conclusion, according to previous studies and considering the current study, we could suggest a prophylactic role of omega-3 against the outcome of symptoms associated with schizophrenia.

  16. Noise level in neonatal incubators: A comparative study of three models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández Zacarías, F; Beira Jiménez, J L; Bustillo Velázquez-Gaztelu, P J; Hernández Molina, R; Lubián López, Simón

    2018-04-01

    Preterm infants usually have to spend a long time in an incubator, excessive noise in which can have adverse physiological and psychological effects on neonates. In fact, incubator noise levels typically range from 45 to 70 dB but differences in this respect depend largely on the noise measuring method used. The primary aim of this work was to assess the extent to which noise in an incubator comes from its own fan and how efficiently the incubator can isolate external noise. Three different incubator models were characterized for acoustic performance by measuring their internal noise levels in an anechoic chamber, and also for noise isolation efficiency by using a pink noise source in combination with an internal and an external microphone that were connected to an SVAN958 noise analyzer. The incubators studied produced continuous equivalent noise levels of 53.5-58 dB and reduced external noise by 5.2-10.4 dB. A preterm infant in an incubator is exposed to noise levels clearly exceeding international recommendations even though such levels usually comply with the limit set in the standard IEC60601-2-19: 2009 (60 dBA) under normal conditions of use. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  17. Neurophysiological model of tinnitus: dependence of the minimal masking level on treatment outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jastreboff, P J; Hazell, J W; Graham, R L

    1994-11-01

    Validity of the neurophysiological model of tinnitus (Jastreboff, 1990), outlined in this paper, was tested on data from multicenter trial of tinnitus masking (Hazell et al., 1985). Minimal masking level, intensity match of tinnitus, and the threshold of hearing have been evaluated on a total of 382 patients before and after 6 months of treatment with maskers, hearing aids, or combination devices. The data has been divided into categories depending on treatment outcome and type of approach used. Results of analysis revealed that: i) the psychoacoustical description of tinnitus does not possess a predictive value for the outcome of the treatment; ii) minimal masking level changed significantly depending on the treatment outcome, decreasing on average by 5.3 dB in patients reporting improvement, and increasing by 4.9 dB in those whose tinnitus remained the same or worsened; iii) 73.9% of patients reporting improvement had their minimal masking level decreased as compared with 50.5% for patients not showing improvement, which is at the level of random change; iv) the type of device used has no significant impact on the treatment outcome and minimal masking level change; v) intensity match and threshold of hearing did not exhibit any significant changes which can be related to treatment outcome. These results are fully consistent with the neurophysiological interpretation of mechanisms involved in the phenomenon of tinnitus and its alleviation.

  18. A two level mutation-selection model of cultural evolution and diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar-Ciudad, Isaac

    2010-11-21

    Cultural evolution is a complex process that can happen at several levels. At the level of individuals in a population, each human bears a set of cultural traits that he or she can transmit to its offspring (vertical transmission) or to other members of his or her society (horizontal transmission). The relative frequency of a cultural trait in a population or society can thus increase or decrease with the relative reproductive success of its bearers (individual's level) or the relative success of transmission (called the idea's level). This article presents a mathematical model on the interplay between these two levels. The first aim of this article is to explore when cultural evolution is driven by the idea's level, when it is driven by the individual's level and when it is driven by both. These three possibilities are explored in relation to (a) the amount of interchange of cultural traits between individuals, (b) the selective pressure acting on individuals, (c) the rate of production of new cultural traits, (d) the individual's capacity to remember cultural traits and to the population size. The aim is to explore the conditions in which cultural evolution does not lead to a better adaptation of individuals to the environment. This is to contrast the spread of fitness-enhancing ideas, which make individual bearers better adapted to the environment, to the spread of "selfish" ideas, which spread well simply because they are easy to remember but do not help their individual bearers (and may even hurt them). At the same time this article explores in which conditions the adaptation of individuals is maximal. The second aim is to explore how these factors affect cultural diversity, or the amount of different cultural traits in a population. This study suggests that a larger interchange of cultural traits between populations could lead to cultural evolution not improving the adaptation of individuals to their environment and to a decrease of cultural diversity

  19. Modelling of radiation induced segregation in austenitic Fe alloys at the atomistic level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piochaud, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-01-01

    In pressurized water reactors, under irradiation internal structures are subject of irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking which is influenced by radiation induced segregation (RIS). In this work RIS of 316 stainless steels is modelled considering a model ternary Fe-10Ni-20Cr alloy. For this purpose we have built an Fe-Ni-Cr pair interaction model to simulate RIS at the atomistic level using an atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo approach. The pair interactions have been deduced from density functional theory (DFT) data available in the pure fcc systems but also from DFT calculations we have performed in the Fe-10Ni-20Cr target alloy. Point defect formation energies were calculated and found to depend strongly on the local environment of the defect. As a consequence, a rather good estimation of these energies can be obtained from the knowledge of the number and respective positions of the Ni and Cr atoms in the vicinity of the defect. This work shows that a model based only on interaction parameters between elements positioned in perfect lattice sites (solute atoms and vacancy) cannot capture alone both the thermodynamic and the kinetic aspect of RIS. A more accurate of estimating the barriers encountered by the diffusing species is required than the one used in our model, which has to depend on the saddle point environment. This study therefore shows thus the need to estimate point defect migration energies using the DFT approach to calibrate a model that can be used in the framework of atomic kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. We also found that the reproduction by our pair interaction model of DFT data for the self-interstitial atoms was found to be incompatible with the modelling of RIS under electron irradiation. (author)

  20. A framework for different levels of integration of computational models into web-based virtual patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kononowicz, Andrzej A; Narracott, Andrew J; Manini, Simone; Bayley, Martin J; Lawford, Patricia V; McCormack, Keith; Zary, Nabil

    2014-01-23

    Virtual patients are increasingly common tools used in health care education to foster learning of clinical reasoning skills. One potential way to expand their functionality is to augment virtual patients' interactivity by enriching them with computational models of physiological and pathological processes. The primary goal of this paper was to propose a conceptual framework for the integration of computational models within virtual patients, with particular focus on (1) characteristics to be addressed while preparing the integration, (2) the extent of the integration, (3) strategies to achieve integration, and (4) methods for evaluating the feasibility of integration. An additional goal was to pilot the first investigation of changing framework variables on altering perceptions of integration. The framework was constructed using an iterative process informed by Soft System Methodology. The Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) initiative has been used as a source of new computational models. The technical challenges associated with development of virtual patients enhanced by computational models are discussed from the perspectives of a number of different stakeholders. Concrete design and evaluation steps are discussed in the context of an exemplar virtual patient employing the results of the VPH ARCH project, as well as improvements for future iterations. The proposed framework consists of four main elements. The first element is a list of feasibility features characterizing the integration process from three perspectives: the computational modelling researcher, the health care educationalist, and the virtual patient system developer. The second element included three integration levels: basic, where a single set of simulation outcomes is generated for specific nodes in the activity graph; intermediate, involving pre-generation of simulation datasets over a range of input parameters; advanced, including dynamic solution of the model. The third element is the