Regional climate change mitigation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, Ian H.

1998-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the 'regional' - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

Party Organizational Change: Formal Distribution of Power between National and Regional Levels in Italian Political Parties (1991-2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrico Calossi

2015-03-01

Full Text Available In the last 20 years an increasing number of scholars have centred their attention on the relationships between party national structures and party sub-national branches. A relevant part of the specialized literature has interpreted party change as the by-product of the denationalization of party politics. The aim of this contribution is to investigate to what extent eight relevant Italian parties have followed patterns of organizational change, after the reforms of the municipal, provincial and regional election sys-tems; and the process of devolution of administrative powers begun during the Nineties. By focusing on two analytical dimensions (the level of involvement and the level of autonomy of party regional units, we analyse diachronically continuity and change in party formal organization, through an in-depth analysis of the statutes adopted from 1992 to 2012

Mapping lake level changes using ICESat/GLAS satellite laser altimetry data: a case study in arid regions of central Asia

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Li, JunLi; Fang, Hui; Yang, Liao

2011-12-01

Lakes in arid regions of Central Asia act as essential components of regional water cycles, providing sparse but valuable water resource for the fragile ecological environments and human lives. Lakes in Central Asia are sensitive to climate change and human activities, and great changes have been found since 1960s. Mapping and monitoring these inland lakes would improve our understanding of mechanism of lake dynamics and climatic impacts. ICESat/GLAS satellite laser altimetry provides an efficient tool of continuously measuring lake levels in these poorly surveyed remote areas. An automated mapping scheme of lake level changes is developed based on GLAS altimetry products, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of 9 typical lakes in Central Asia are analyzed to validate the level accuracies. The results show that ICESat/GLAS has a good performance of lake level monitoring, whose patterns of level changes are the same as those of field observation, and the max differences between GLAS and field data is 3cm. Based on the results, it is obvious that alpine lakes are increasing greatly in lake levels during 2003-2009 due to climate change, while open lakes with dams and plain endorheic lakes decrease dramatically in water levels due to human activities, which reveals the overexploitation of water resource in Central Asia.

Wind speed change regionalization in China (1961–2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pei-Jun Shi

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This research quantitatively recognized the wind speed change using wind speed trend and trend of wind speed variability from 1961 to 2012 and regionalized the wind speed change on a county-level basis. The mean wind speed observation data and linear fitting method were used. The findings suggested that level-I regionalization includes six zones according to wind speed trend value in different regions, viz. Northeast China–North China substantial declining zone, East–Central China declining zone, Southeast China slightly declining zone, Southwest China very slightly declining zone, Northwest China declining zone, and Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau slightly declining zone. Level-II regionalization divides China into twelve regions based on trend of wind speed variability and the level-I regionalization results.

A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lung, T.; Lavalle, C.; Hiederer, R.; Dosio, A.; Bouwer, L.M.

2013-01-01

To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at

Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

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Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert

2007-01-01

Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold

Modelling regional sea-level changes in recent past and future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Slangen, A.B.A.

2012-01-01

Sea-level change is one of the most important consequences of a warming climate, affecting many densely populated coastal communities. To improve coastal management and the planning of flood defences, information on the future development of sea-level rise is needed. However, sea-level rise is not

Water-level altitudes 2015 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2014 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Ramage, Jason K.; Houston, Natalie A.; Johnson, Michaela R.; Schmidt, Tiffany S.

2015-01-01

Most of the land-surface subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction of the aquifer sediments, mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2015 water-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2014–March 2015) for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps depicting 1-year (2014–15) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting approximate contoured 5-year (2010–15) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting approximate contoured long-term (1990–2015 and 1977–2015) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map depicting approximate contoured long-term (2000–15) water-level changes for the Jasper aquifer; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer sites; and graphs depicting measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments at the borehole extensometers during 1973–2014. Three tables listing the water-level data used to construct each water-level map for each aquifer and a table listing the measured cumulative compaction data for each extensometer site and graphs are included.

Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

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Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

2016-01-01

Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

Upper Limit for Regional Sea Level Projections

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Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

2016-04-01

With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. With probabilistic approach we produce regional sea level projections taking into account large uncertainties associated with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets contribution. We calculate the upper limit (as 95%) for regional sea level projections by 2100 with RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting that for the most coastlines upper limit will exceed the global upper limit of 1.8 m.

Water-level altitudes 2013 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973--2012 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.

2013-01-01

Most of the subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction mostly in the clay and silt layers of the aquifer sediments. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains maps depicting approximate water-level altitudes for 2013 (represented by measurements made during December 2012-February 2013) for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps depicting 1-year (2012-13) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting 5-year (2008--13) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting long-term (1990-2013 and 1977-2013) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map depicting long-term (2000-13) water-level changes for the Jasper aquifer; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer sites; and graphs depicting measured compaction of subsurface sediments at the extensometers during 1973-2012. Tables listing the data used to construct each water-level map for each aquifer and the compaction graphs are included.

Holocene Sea-Level Database For The Caribbean Region

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, N. S.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Scatena, F. N.; Vane, C. H.; Liu, S.

2013-12-01

Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) records from far-field locations are important for understanding the driving mechanisms controlling the nature and timing of the mid-late Holocene reduction in global meltwaters and providing background rates of late Holocene RSL change with which to compare the magnitude of 20th century RSL rise. The Caribbean region has traditionally been considered far-field (i.e., with negligible glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) influence), although recent investigations indicate otherwise. Here, we consider the spatial variability in glacio-isostatic, tectonic and local contributions on RSL records from the circum-Caribbean region to infer a Holocene eustatic sea-level signal. We have constructed a database of quality-controlled, spatially comprehensive, Holocene RSL observations for the circum-Caribbean region. The database contains over 500 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space. The database incorporates sea-level observations from a latitudinal range of 5°N to 25°N and longitudinal range of 55°W to 90°W. We include sea-level observations from 11 ka BP to present, although the majority of the index points in the database are younger than 8 ka BP. The database is sub-divided into 13 regions based on the distance from the former Laurentide Ice Sheet and regional tectonic setting. The index points were primarily derived from mangrove peat deposits, which in the Caribbean form in the upper half of the tidal range, and corals (predominantly Acropora palmata), the growth of which is constrained to the upper 5 m of water depth. The index points are classified on the basis of their susceptibility to compaction (e.g., intercalated, basal). The influence of temporal changes in tidal range on index points is also considered. The sea-level reconstructions demonstrate that RSL did not exceed the present height (0 m) during the Holocene in the majority of locations, except at sites in Suriname/Guayana and possibly Trinidad

How sea level change mediates genetic divergence in coastal species across regions with varying tectonic and sediment processes.

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Dolby, Greer A; Ellingson, Ryan A; Findley, Lloyd T; Jacobs, David K

2018-02-01

Plate tectonics and sediment processes control regional continental shelf topography. We examine the genetic consequences of how glacial-associated sea level change interacted with variable nearshore topography since the last glaciation. We reconstructed the size and distribution of areas suitable for tidal estuary formation from the last glacial maximum, ~20 thousand years ago, to present from San Francisco, California, USA (~38°N) to Reforma, Sinaloa, Mexico (~25°N). We assessed range-wide genetic structure and diversity of three codistributed tidal estuarine fishes (California Killifish, Shadow Goby, Longjaw Mudsucker) along ~4,600 km using mitochondrial control region and cytB sequence, and 16-20 microsatellite loci from a total of 524 individuals. Results show that glacial-associated sea level change limited estuarine habitat to few, widely separated refugia at glacial lowstand, and present-day genetic clades were sourced from specific refugia. Habitat increased during postglacial sea level rise and refugial populations admixed in newly formed habitats. Continental shelves with active tectonics and/or low sediment supply were steep and hosted fewer, smaller refugia with more genetically differentiated populations than on broader shelves. Approximate Bayesian computation favoured the refuge-recolonization scenarios from habitat models over isolation by distance and seaway alternatives, indicating isolation at lowstand is a major diversification mechanism among these estuarine (and perhaps other) coastal species. Because sea level change is a global phenomenon, we suggest this top-down physical control of extirpation-isolation-recolonization may be an important driver of genetic diversification in coastal taxa inhabiting other topographically complex coasts globally during the Mid- to Late Pleistocene and deeper timescales. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Water-level altitudes 2014 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2013 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.

2014-01-01

Most of the land-surface subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction of the aquifer sediments, mostly in the fine-grained clay and silt layers. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains maps depicting approximate 2014 water-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2013–March 2014) for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps depicting 1-year (2013–14) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting contoured 5-year (2009–14) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting contoured long-term (1990–2014 and 1977–2014) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map depicting contoured long-term (2000–14) water-level changes for the Jasper aquifer; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer sites; and graphs depicting measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments at the borehole extensometers during 1973–2013. Tables listing the data used to construct each water-level map for each aquifer and the compaction graphs are included.

Water-level altitudes 2012 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2011 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.

2012-01-01

Most of the subsidence in the Houston–Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers and caused compaction of the clay layers of the aquifer sediments. This report—prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris– Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District—is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston–Galveston region. The report contains maps showing approximate water-level altitudes for 2012 (calculated from measurements of water levels in wells made during December 2011–February 2012) for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps showing 1-year (2011–12) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing 5-year (2007–12) water-levelaltitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing long-term (1990–2012 and 1977–2012) water-level-altitude changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map showing long-term (2000–12) water-level-altitude change for the Jasper aquifer; a map showing locations of borehole extensometer sites; and graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface sediments at the extensometers from 1973 (or later) through 2011. Tables listing the data that were used to construct each water-level map for each aquifer and the cumulative compaction graphs are included.

Analyzing Three-Decadal Patterns of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Regional Ecosystem Services at the Landscape Level: Case Study of Two Coastal Metropolitan Regions, Eastern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuan-Bin Cai

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Rapid urbanization, land scarcity, and accompanying ecological deterioration in China have received growing attention. In this paper, two fast-growing metropolitan regions, Greater Shanghai and Greater Hangzhou, were selected as case studies to quantify the impact of land use/land cover (LULC change on regional ecosystem services value (ESV at the landscape scale since the late 1970s. The results show that in both regions, dramatic LULC change, especially recent land development at the urban fringes, led to a steady decline in the available area of productive agricultural land, natural land and semi-natural land. This consequently caused remarkable landscape fragmentation along the urban-rural gradient as measured by five class-level landscape metrics. It was estimated that in Greater Shanghai, regulating, supporting, provisioning, and cultural ESVs decreased by 32.05%, 17.89%, 53.72%, and 17.06%, respectively. In Greater Hangzhou, these values decreased by 27.82%, 23.86%, 28.62%, and 22.85%, respectively. In addition, the relationship is quantified between zonal buffer-based ESV and class-level landscape metrics. Further analysis shows that spatiotemporal patterns of zonal ESVs along the urban-rural gradient in these two regions exhibited unbalanced patterns of ecological services delivery.

Region specific changes in nonapeptide levels during client fish interactions with allopatric and sympatric cleaner fish.

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Soares, Marta C; Cardoso, Sónia C; Mazzei, Renata; André, Gonçalo I; Morais, Marta; Gozdowska, Magdalena; Kalamarz-Kubiak, Hanna; Kulczykowska, Ewa

2017-01-01

Social relationships are crucially dependent on individual ability to learn and remember ecologically relevant cues. However, the way animals recognize cues before engaging in any social interaction and how their response is regulated by brain neuromodulators remains unclear. We examined the putative involvement of arginine vasotocin (AVT) and isotocin (IT), acting at different brain regions, during fish decision-making in the context of cooperation, by trying to identify how fish distinguish and recognize the value of other social partners or species. We hypothesized that the behavioural responses of cleaner fish clients to different social contexts would be underlain by changes in brain AVT and IT levels. We have found that changes in AVT at the level of forebrain and optic tectum are linked with a response to allopatric cleaners (novel or unfamiliar stimuli) while those at cerebellum are associated with the willingness to be cleaned (in response to sympatric cleaners). On the other hand, higher brain IT levels that were solely found in the diencephalon, also in response to allopatric cleaners. Our results are the first to implicate these nonapeptides, AVT in particular, in the assessment of social cues which enable fish to engage in mutualistic activities.

Coupling of sea level and tidal range changes, with implications for future water levels.

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Devlin, Adam T; Jay, David A; Talke, Stefan A; Zaron, Edward D; Pan, Jiayi; Lin, Hui

2017-12-05

Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this affect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that the variability in HAT is significantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fluctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric. At Hong Kong, the increase in tides significantly amplifies the risk caused by sea-level rise. Regions of tidal decrease and/or amplification highlight the non-linear response to sea-level variations, with the potential to amplify or mitigate against the increased flood risk caused by sea-level rise. Overall, our analysis suggests that in many regions, local flood level determinations should consider the joint effects of non-stationary tides and mean sea level (MSL) at multiple time scales.

Associations between initial change in physical activity level and subsequent change in regional body fat distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezekwe, Kelechi A; Adegboye, Amanda R A; Gamborg, Michael; Heitmann, Berit L

2013-01-01

Few studies have examined which lifestyle factors relate to the development of fat distribution. Therefore, the identification of the determinants of changes in fat deposition is highly relevant. The association between the change in physical activity (PA) and the subsequent changes in regional body fat distributions was examined. In total, 1,236 men and 1,201 women were included at baseline and participated in the Danish MONICA (MONItoring Trends and Determinants in CArdiovascular Disease) study. A questionnaire was used to assess PA at 5 and 11 years after baseline examination, while waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured at both follow-ups. Among men, WC increased in the constant active group to a lesser extent than in the non-constant active group (3.4 vs. 4.1 cm; p = 0.03) concerning leisure time physical activities (LTPA). A similar pattern was observed for both WC and HC in relation to occupational physical activities (OPA) (p = 0.02). Among women, the results went in the same direction for LTPA, whereas the associations with OPA were in the opposite direction (p = 0.001). LTPA and OPA were associated with reduced subsequent 6-year changes in regional fat distribution for men. For women, no associations were observed in relation to WC; however, OPA seemed to increase HC among women. © 2013 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2016-04-01

To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the

Water-level altitudes 2009 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper Aquifers and compaction 1973-2008 in the Chicot and Evangeline Aquifers, Houston-Galveston Region, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Houston, Natalie A.; Ramage, Jason K.

2009-01-01

This report, done in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, the City of Houston, the Fort Bend Subsidence District, and the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports that depicts water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas. The report (excluding appendixes) contains 16 sheets and 15 tables: 3 sheets are maps showing current-year (2009) water-level altitudes for each aquifer, respectively; 3 sheets are maps showing 1-year (2008-09) water-level changes for each aquifer, respectively; 3 sheets are maps showing 5-year (2004-09) water-level changes for each aquifer, respectively; 4 sheets are maps showing long-term (1990-2009 and 1977-2009) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, respectively; 1 sheet is a map showing long-term (2000-2009) water-level change for the Jasper aquifer; 1 sheet is a map showing site locations of borehole extensometers; and 1 sheet comprises graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at the sites from 1973 or later through 2008, respectively. Tables listing the data used to construct the aquifer-data maps and the compaction graphs are included.

Modeling framework for estimating impacts of climate change on electricity demand at regional level: Case of Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirasgedis, S.; Sarafidis, Y.; Georgopoulou, E.; Kotroni, V.; Lagouvardos, K.; Lalas, D.P.

2007-01-01

This paper focuses on the potential upcoming impacts of climate change in the 21st century on electricity demand at regional/national levels for regions where topography and location result in large differences in local climate. To address this issue, a regional climate model, PRECIS, has been used to predict future climatic conditions under different emissions scenarios (namely A2 and B2 of the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios (SRES)) as an input to a multiple regression model of the sensitivity of electricity demand in the Greek interconnected power system to climate and socio-economic factors. The economic development input to the multiple regression model follows the same storylines of the SRES scenarios upto 2100 and includes sub-scenarios to cover larger and smaller economic development rates. The results of the analysis indicate an increase of the annual electricity demand attributable solely to climate change of 3.6-5.5% under all scenarios examined, most of which results from increased annual variability with substantial increases during the summer period that outweighs moderate declines estimated for the winter period. This becomes more pronounced if inter-annual variability, especially of summer months, is taken into consideration. It was also found that in the long run, economic development will have a strong effect on future electricity demand, thus increasing substantially the total amount of energy consumed for cooling and heating purposes. This substantial increase in energy demand with strong annual variability will lead to the need for inordinate increases of installed capacity, a large percentage of which will be under utilized. Thus, appropriate adaptation strategies (e.g. new investments, interconnections with other power systems, energy saving programmes, etc.) need to be developed at the state level in order to ensure the security of energy supply. (author)

Methanol extract of Nigella sativa seed induces changes in the levels of neurotransmitter amino acids in male rat brain regions.

Science.gov (United States)

El-Naggar, Tarek; Carretero, María Emilia; Arce, Carmen; Gómez-Serranillos, María Pilar

2017-12-01

Nigella sativa L. (Ranunculaceae) (NS) has been used for medicinal and culinary purposes. Different parts of the plant are used to treat many disorders. This study investigates the effects of NS methanol extract on brain neurotransmitter amino acid levels. We measured the changes in aspartate, glutamate, glycine and γ-aminobutyric acid in five brain regions of male Wistar rats after methanol extract treatment. Animals were injected intraperitoneally with saline solution (controls) or NS methanol extract (equivalent of 2.5 g/kg body weight) and sacrificed 1 h later or after administering 1 daily dose for 8 days. The neurotransmitters were measured in the hypothalamus, cortex, striatum, hippocampus and thalamus by HPLC. Results showed significant changes in amino acids compared to basal values. Glutamate increased significantly (16-36%) in the regions analyzed except the striatum. Aspartate in the hypothalamus (50 and 76%) and glycine in hippocampus (32 and 25%), thalamus (66 and 29%) and striatum (75 and 48%) also increased with the two treatment intervals. γ-Aminobutyric acid significantly increased in the hippocampus (38 and 32%) and thalamus (22 and 40%) but decreased in the cortex and hypothalamus although in striatum only after eight days of treatment (24%). Our results suggest that injected methanol extract modifies amino acid levels in the rat brain regions. These results could be of interest since some neurodegenerative diseases are related to amino acid level imbalances in the central nervous system, suggesting the prospect for therapeutic use of NS against these disorders.

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

Science.gov (United States)

Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

2016-05-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

Critical pathways of change in fruit export regions at desert margin (Chile)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frederiksen, Peter

The purpose is to elucidate how critical pathways function in a fruit export region at the desert margin in Chile. The region was investigated at the system level as an open land system with managed fruit plantations in a geographically complex valley. Data collection procedures included total...... change changed pathways. Pathways resulted from a combination of global value chains, the adoption of innovations, past climate change, and regional conditions at different scales. Main pathways of change were upgrade and downgrade of the fruit export region and irrigation systems, whereas the breaking...... areas and not in others. The probable future is expected to be increased separation of intraregional pathways and a more imbalanced region. The conclusion is that openness is the main property responsible for critical pathways of change in the region....

Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

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Shankar Adhikari

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being used to adapt to a changing environment through key informant interviews and focus group discussions. At the household level, livelihood diversification, changes in cropping patterns and farming practices, use of multipurpose plant species and income-generation activities were identified as adaptation strategies. Among major strategies at the community level were community forestry-based climate adaptation plans of action for forest and water resource management. Landscape-level adaptation strategies were large-scale collaborative projects and programs, such as Ecosystem-based Adaptation and Chitwan Annapurna Landscape conservation; which had implications at both the local and landscape-level. A proper blending and integration of adaptation strategies from individual households through to the community and to the landscape level is needed for implementing effective adaptation in the region.

A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Perrette

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giorgi, F.; Meleux, F.

2007-01-01

The life cycle of pollutants is affected by chemical as well as meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation. Therefore, climatic changes induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may be expected to have significant effects on air quality. Because of the spatial variability of the pollutant emissions and climate-change signals, these effects are particularly relevant at the regional to local scales. This paper first briefly reviews modelling tools and methodologies used to study regional climate-change impacts on air quality. Patterns of regional precipitation, temperature, and sea-level changes emerging from the latest set of general circulation model projections are then discussed. Finally, the specific case of climate-change effects on summer ozone concentrations over Europe is presented to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on pollutant amounts. It is concluded that climate change is an important factor that needs to be taken into account when designing future pollution-reduction policies. (authors)

Impact of Geological Changes on Regional and Global Economies

Science.gov (United States)

Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova; Baranov, Sergey

2017-04-01

Periods of geological changes such as super continent cycle (300-500 million years), Wilson's cycles (300-900 million years), magmatic-tectonic cycle (150-200 million years), and cycles with smaller periods (22, 100, 1000 years) lead to a basic contradiction preventing forming methodology of the study of impact of geological changes on the global and regional economies. The reason of this contradiction is the differences of theoretical and methodological aspects of the Earth science and economics such as different time scales and accuracy of geological changes. At the present the geological models cannot provide accurate estimation of time and place where geological changes (strong earthquakes, volcanos) are expected. Places of feature (not next) catastrophic events are the only thing we have known. Thus, it is impossible to use the periodicity to estimate both geological changes and their consequences. Taking into accounts these factors we suggested a collection of concepts for estimating impact of possible geological changes on regional and global economies. We illustrated our approach by example of estimating impact of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 on regional and global economies. Based on this example we concluded that globalization processes increase an impact of geological changes on regional and global levels. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 16-06-00056, 16-32-00019, 16-05-00263A).

THE STUDY OF CHANGES IN ARDABIL PLAIN GROUNDWATER LEVEL USING GIS

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Javad Zare Aghbolagh

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Uncontrolled exploitation of groundwater in many parts of the world has led to a sharp drop in groundwater levels. In this study, changes in Ardabil plain groundwater level were studied using geographic information system (GIS. For this purpose, the interpolation table method was used, the intrinsic data as table data of piezo metric wells was used. In order to implement the model, the Majol Geoestatical in geographic information system software was used. The data entered as regions into the geographic information system, and then done for the entire zoning area, due to zoning 8 models, the IDW, GPI, RBF, LPI, KO, KS, KU and EBK in geostatical extension were evaluated. The ordinary kriging method (KO with the lowest RMSE, was determined as the most accurate one, and finally, as the ultimate method for zoning and map providing for the changes in groundwater levels drop of the region. The results of classification showed that the biggest drop of about 40 meters was in the areas close to the southeastern parts of the study region and in other areas, little changes were observed, this rate of the change and decline in some parts of the desert like southern regions is very tangible and specified.

Implications of climate change in the ROPME region: an overview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hassan, M.E.; Gerges, M.A.

1994-12-31

The Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) region is divided into three areas: SA-I, the northern part of the Arabian Sea bounded by the south coast of the Sultanate of Oman, the mouth of the Gulf of Oman and the southern coast of the Islamic Republic of Iran; SA-II, the Gulf of Oman; and SA-III named as the Persian or Arabian Gulf. SA-I is the prime representative of the monsoonal weather system, which produces strong summertime upwelling resulting in rich fisheries that disappear in the winter. SA-II shows transition between the monsoonal system and the desert belt climate of SA-III. Its shallowness mean that the annual range of water temperature is the greatest for any water body freely connected to the world ocean. This restricts the ecosystems that can survive. It also enhances the effect of sea level rise on the tidal pattern. Because the SA-III region is the world`s major oil and gas extraction area, resulting land subsidence can produce an apparent sea level rise of the same order of magnitude as that postulated from expected climate change. Observed sea level rise could be twice the global rate. The shallowness of the area means that the change of tidal pattern resulting from the change of depth will be very dramatic. To help combat climate change it is recommended that: a high quality dense tide recording network be set up and connected to a land subsidence recording network; a regional central data collecting and data processing centre be identified in the region; an active participation in international relevant programs such as TOGA and GOOS by ROPME Member States be maintained; and environmental non-Governmental Organizationsshould be encouraged to publicise these issues.

Measuring Poverty at the Regional Level in Spain: A Reflexive Approach

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Nerea Zugasti

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This article assesses the utility of adjusting the poverty threshold for regional areas of Spain and of using thresholds anchored in time. It also offers a critical review of equivalence scales as a central element in estimating poverty. To do this, data from the Income and Living Conditions Surveys from 2007 to 2012 is used. The results show that poverty rates obtained with national thresholds are strongly influenced by intra-regional inequalities in income. They also show that regional thresholds capture differences in the well-being of the population, controlling for the effects of regional disparities in economic development. In addition, they demonstrate that anchored thresholds avoid inconsistencies in poverty rates tied to changes in income levels of the general population and not to changes in socially necessary resources.

Sunda epicontinental shelf and Quaternary glacial-interglacial sea level variation and their implications to the regional and global environmental change

Science.gov (United States)

Soepri Hantoro, Wahyoe

2018-02-01

Sunda Epicontinental Shelf occupies a large area between Asia and Indonesian Maritime Continent. This shallow shelf developed soon as stability of this area since Pliocene was achieved. Sedimentation and erosion started, following sea level variation of Milankovitch cycle that changed this area to, partly to entirely become a low lying open land. These changes imply a difference height of about 135 m sea level. Consequence of this changes from shallow sea during interglacial to the exposed low land during glacial period is producing different land cover that might influence to the surrounding area. As the large land surface, this area should be covered by low land tropical forest, savanna to wet coastal plain. This large low-lying land belongs an important river drainage system of South East Asia in the north (Gulf of Thailand) and another system that curved from Malay Peninsula, Sumatra, Bangka-Belitung and Kalimantan, named as Palaeo Sunda River. The total area of this land is about 1 million km2, this must bring consequences to the environmental condition. This change belongs to the global change on which the signal may be sent to a distance, then is preserved as geological formation. Being large and flat land, it has a long and winding river valley so this land influences the life of biota as fauna and flora but also human being that may live or just move on the passing through around East Asia. Global sea level changes through time which is then followed by the change of the area of land or water have indeed influenced the hydrology and carbon cycle balance. Through studying the stratigraphy and geology dynamic, based on seismic images and core samples from drilling work, one can be obtained, the better understanding the environmental change and its impact to the regional but could be global scale.

Water-level altitudes 2010 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2009 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.

2010-01-01

Most of the subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers causing compaction of the clay layers of the aquifer sediments. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, and Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains maps showing 2010 water-level altitudes for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, respectively; maps showing 1-year (2009-10) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing 5-year (2005-10) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing long-term (1990-2010 and 1977-2010) water-level-altitude changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map showing long-term (2000-10) water-level-altitude change for the Jasper aquifer; a map showing locations of borehole extensometer sites; and graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at the extensometers from 1973, or later, through 2009. Tables listing the data used to construct each aquifer-data map and the compaction graphs are included. Water levels in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers were measured during December 2009-March 2010. In 2010, water-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 or North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter, datum) in a small area in southwestern Harris County to 200 feet above datum in central to southwestern Montgomery County. Water-level-altitude changes in the Chicot aquifer ranged from a 49-foot decline to a 67

THE CONDITION AND THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGES OF REGIONAL ENERGETIC SAFETY LEVEL

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A.L. Myzin

2006-12-01

Full Text Available On the basis of indicative analysis method use, the dynamic processes of changes of energetic safety condition of federal districts and subjects of Russian Federation for last 5 years are investigated. The results of diagnosing safety levels for separate indicators, their blocks and the results of situation evaluation as a whole are discussed. The comparison of regions’ energetic safety condition is given, the causes of crisis situations appearance are discovered, and on this basis the suggestions for regions’ safety levels increasing are formulated.

[Land Use Pattern Change and Regional Sustainability Evaluation of Wetland in Jiaogang Lake].

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yang; Cai, Yi-min; Bai, Yan-ying; Chen, Wei-ping; Yang, Xiu-chao

2015-06-01

Changes in land use and sustainability evaluation of wetland in Jiaogang Lake from 1995 to 2013 were analyzed, based on the land use change models and an index system, supported by RS, GIS, and social statistical data. The results showed: (1) dry land, paddy field, and building land were the predominant landscape in the study area. The arable land was mainly converted during 1995-2000, which was driven by the extension of agriculture, and the building land increased significantly during 2010-2013, which was driven by the tourism development. (2) Compared to the beginning research area, the building land increased by 123.3%, and the wetland decreased by 23.15%. The land system was at risk for a low proportion of wetland, scarcity of unused land, and the fragmented landscape. (3) The regional sustainability results were bad level, bad level, poor level, good level, and poor level during the different periods, with some room for improvement. (4) The fitness of regional sustainability in study area yielded satisfactory results in 2010, owing to the rapid growth of regional productivity and the regional stability. Since 2010, with the increasing environmental load, the regional sustainability fell down to the poor level. The obstruction of sustainable development is necessary to be addressed in the study area.

Incorporating regional growth into forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from project-level residential and commercial development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowangould, Dana; Eldridge, Melody; Niemeier, Deb

2013-01-01

To better understand the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of land use planning decisions, regional planning organizations have developed tools to forecast the emissions from project-level residential and commercial development. This paper reviews the state of GHG emissions forecasting methods for project-level development. We argue that when forecasting changes in regional emissions it is important to make explicit what is assumed about a project′s effect on the population of residents and businesses in the region. We present five regional growth assumptions capturing the range of ways that project-level development might influence (i) construction and occupancy of similar developments elsewhere in a region and (ii) relocation of the initial activities that occur on-site before the project is built. We show that current forecasting tools inconsistently address the latter when they are interpreted as forecasted changes in regional emissions. Using a case study in Yolo County, California we demonstrate that forecasted changes in regional emissions are greatly affected by the regional growth assumption. In the absence of information about which regional growth assumption is accurate, we provide guidelines for selection of a conservative regional growth assumption. - Highlights: • Current tools inconsistently forecast GHG emissions from project-level development. • We outline five assumptions about how projects may affect regional growth. • Our assumptions capture a range of economic and population effects of projects. • Our case study shows that growth assumptions greatly affect regional GHG estimates. • We provide guidelines for selecting a conservative regional growth assumption

Global change and the measurement of absolute sea-level

Science.gov (United States)

Diamante, John M.; Pyle, Thomas E.; Carter, William E.; Scherer, Wolfgang

To quantify properly the long-term response of sea-level to climate change, land motions must be separated from the apparent or relative sea-level change recorded by conventional tide/sea-level gauges. Here we present a concept for global measurement of the true or “absolute” sea-level change, which combines recent advances in space-based geodetic techniques with plans for a global sea-level network under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Data from initial feasibility tests show that land motion, due to global (plate tectonic), regional (glacial rebound), or local (fluid withdrawal) effects, can probably be measured to ±1cm (on a single measurement basis) by an innovative combination of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) tevhniques. By making repeated observations of position at a number of tide gauges using portable, economical GPS receivers in a differential mode relative to the fewer, more stable, but more expensive VLBI observatories, it will be possible to subtract land motion from the relative sea-level signal. Decadal to century scale trends at the 1-2mm y -1 level will be resolvable in the sea-level and vertical land motion time series within about a decade. Detection of subsidence or uplift at specific gauges will allow correction for land motion or deletion of bad data when computing regional or global, i.e. eustatic, sea-level changes. In addition to their applications in oceanography and climate studies, such data will test models by Peltier and other that relate mantle viscosity and deglaciation history to present rates of crustal subsidence or uplift. If the predicted crustal motions are confirmed, we can also have more confidence in the use of historical tide/sea-level gauge records in retrospective studies of sea-level change related to climate variability on decadal or longer time scales. It is concluded that as few as one-third (about 100) of the total number of tide/sea-level gauges (250

Water-level altitudes 2011 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2010 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.; Kasmarek, Mark C.

2011-01-01

Most of the subsidence in the Houston–Galveston region has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers causing compaction of the clay layers of the aquifer sediments. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Harris–Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, and Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston–Galveston region. The report contains maps showing 2011 water-level altitudes for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps showing 1-year (2010–11) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing 5-year (2006–11) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing long-term (1990–2011 and 1977–2011) water-level-altitude changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map showing long-term (2000–11) water-level-altitude change for the Jasper aquifer; a map showing locations of borehole extensometer sites; and graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at the extensometers from 1973, or later, through 2010. Tables listing the data used to construct each aquifer-data map and the compaction graphs are included.Water levels in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers were measured during December 2010–February 2011. In 2011, water-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet below North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter, datum) in a small area in southwestern Harris County to 200 feet above datum in central to southwestern Montgomery County. Water-level-altitude changes in the Chicot aquifer ranged from a 40-foot decline to a 33-foot rise (2010–11), from a 10-foot

MOVES regional level sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

The MOVES Regional Level Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to increase understanding of the operations of the MOVES Model in regional emissions analysis and to highlight the following: : the relative sensitivity of selected MOVES Model input paramet...

Regional approach to building operational level capacity for disaster planning: the case of the Eastern Africa region.

Science.gov (United States)

Bazeyo, W; Mayega, R W; Orach, G C; Kiguli, J; Mamuya, S; Tabu, J S; Sena, L; Rugigana, E; Mapatano, M; Lewy, D; Mock, N; Burnham, G; Keim, M; Killewo, J

2013-06-01

The Eastern Africa region is regularly affected by a variety of disasters ranging from drought, to human conflict and population displacement. The magnitude of emergencies and response capacities is similar across the region. In order to strengthen public health disaster management capacities at the operational level in six countries of the Eastern Africa region, the USAID-funded leadership project worked through the HEALTH Alliance, a network of seven schools of public health from six countries in the region to train district-level teams. To develop a sustainable regional approach to building operational level capacity for disaster planning. This project was implemented through a higher education leadership initiative. Project activities were spear-headed by a network of Deans and Directors of public health schools within local universities in the Eastern Africa region. The leadership team envisioned a district-oriented systems change strategy. Pre-service and in-service curricula were developed regionally and district teams were formed to attend short training courses. Project activities began with a situational analysis of the disaster management capacity at national and operational levels. The next steps were chronologically the formation of country training teams and training of trainers, the development of a regional disaster management training curriculum and training materials, the cascading of training activities in the region, and the incorporation of emerging issues into the training curriculum. An evaluation model included the analysis of preparedness impact of the training program. The output from the district teams was the creation of individual district-level disaster plans and their implementation. This 4-year project focused on building operational level public health emergency response capacity, which had not previously been part of any national program. Use of the all-hazard approach rather than a scenario-based contingency planning led to the

Analysis of the Level of Development of the Socio-labour Sphere of Ukrainian Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bibikova Viktoriia V.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The goal of the article is the study of the level of development of the socio-labour sphere of Ukrainian regions. In order to achieve the goal, the article develops a complex scorecard, which takes into account all elements of the socio-labour sphere (socio-labour relations, labour market system of labour reimbursement, social accompaniment of labour activity, professional development of economically active population, level and quality of labour life, safety and security of labour. On the basis of the use of the developed scorecard, the article conducts an integral assessment of the level of development of the socio-labour sphere of regions. In order to get more objective information about the state of the labour sphere of Ukraine, the article uses its subjective assessments by population. In the result of the analysis, it reveals a lack of progressive changes of the socio-labour sphere in majority (60% of Ukrainian regions, availability of significant differentiation of regions by the level of its development and the irregular character of changes of separate elements of the labour sphere both within one administrative and territorial unit and among different regions of Ukraine. The article justifies a necessity of conduct of regular diagnostics of the state of the socio-labour sphere of Ukrainian regions with the use of a developed scorecard.

Water-level altitudes 2016 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973–2015 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Ramage, Jason K.; Johnson, Michaela R.

2016-10-07

Most of the land-surface subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction of the aquifer sediments, mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2016 water-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2015–March 2016) for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps depicting 1-year (2015–16) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting approximate contoured 5-year (2011–16) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting approximate contoured long-term (1990–2016 and 1977–2016) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map depicting approximate contoured long-term (2000–16) water-level changes for the Jasper aquifer; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer sites; and graphs depicting measured long-term cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments at the extensometers during 1973–2015. Tables listing the water-level data used to construct each water-level map for each aquifer and the measured long-term cumulative compaction data for each extensometer site are included. Graphs depicting water-level measurement data also are included; these graphs can be used to approximate

Improving Smallholder Farmer Biosecurity in the Mekong Region Through Change Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, J R; Evans-Kocinski, S; Bush, R D; Windsor, P A

2015-10-01

Transboundary animal diseases including foot-and-mouth disease and haemorrhagic septicaemia remain a major constraint for improving smallholder large ruminant productivity in the Mekong region, producing negative impacts on rural livelihoods and compromising efforts to reduce poverty and food insecurity. The traditional husbandry practices of smallholders largely exclude preventive health measures, increasing risks of disease transmission. Although significant efforts have been made to understand the social aspects of change development in agricultural production, attention to improving the adoption of biosecurity has been limited. This study reviews smallholder biosecurity risk factors identified in the peer-reviewed literature and from field research observations conducted in Cambodia and Laos during 2006-2013, considering these in the context of a change management perspective aimed at improving adoption of biosecurity measures. Motivation for change, resistance to change, knowledge management, cultural dimensions, systems theory and leadership are discussed. Due to geographical, physical and resource variability, the implementation of biosecurity interventions suitable for smallholders is not a 'one size fits all'. Smallholders should be educated in biosecurity principles and empowered to make personal decisions rather than adopt prescribed pre-defined interventions. Biosecurity interventions should be aligned with smallholder farmer motivations, preferably offering clear short-term risk management benefits that elicit interest from smallholders. Linking biosecurity and disease control with improved livestock productivity provides opportunities for sustainable improvements in livelihoods. Participatory research and extension that improves farmer knowledge and practices offers a pathway to elicit sustainable broad-scale social change. However, examples of successes need to be communicated both at the 'evidence-based level' to influence regional policy

Regional Interdependence in Adaptation to Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Stacey, M. T.; Lubell, M.; Hummel, M.; Wang, R. Q.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Herdman, L.; Pozdnukhov, A.; Sheehan, M.

2017-12-01

Projections of sea level rise may differ in the pace of change, but there is clear consensus that coastal communities will be facing more frequent and severe flooding events in the coming century. As communities adapt to future conditions, infrastructure systems will be developed, modified and abandoned, with important consequences for services and resilience. Whether action or inaction is pursued, the decisions made by an individual community regarding a single infrastructure system have implications that extend spatially and temporally due to geographic and infrastructure system interactions. At the same time, there are a number of barriers to collective or coordinated action that inhibit regional solutions. This interplay between local actions and regional responses is one of the great challenges facing decision-makers grappling with both local and regional climate-change adaptation. In this talk, I present case studies of the San Francisco Bay Area that examine how shoreline infrastructure, transporation sytems and decision-making networks interact to define the regional response to local actions and the local response to regional actions. I will characterize the barriers that exist to regional solutions, and characterize three types of interdependence that may motivate decision-makers to overcome those barriers. Using these examples, I will discuss the importance of interdisciplinary analyses that integrate the natural sciences, engineering and the social science to climate change adaptation more generally.

Characterisation of Agri-Landscape Systems at a Regional Level: A Case Study in Northern Tuscany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariassunta Galli

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Preserving our landscape in sustainable development processes is now widely considered as fundamental. It is a complex and evolving issue that can be tackled from several perspectives. Agronomy can contribute to analyzing the relationships between agricultural production systems (cropping, farming and agricultural systems at different levels (field, farm, and region and the agricultural landscape (in terms of patches, matrixes, dynamics, etc. This is of particular interest where the relationships between “what and how” are produced by agricultural activities and the landscape are changing. In this case their own reciprocity may represent an opportunity to analyze complex systems, such as the characterization of agri-landscapes at a regional level. We propose a case study developed as an up-scaling analytical process from a farm to a regional level. The result was the identification of six main agri-landscape systems highlighting the landscape drivers that are changing the traditional landscape of a rural region in Northern Tuscany (Lunigiana.

Changes in precipitation recycling over arid regions in the Northern Hemisphere

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ruolin; Wang, Chenghai; Wu, Di

2018-01-01

Changes of precipitation recycling (PR) in Northern Hemisphere from 1981 to 2010 are investigated using a water recycling model. The temporal and spatial characteristics of recycling in arid regions are analyzed. The results show that the regional precipitation recycling ratio (PRR) in arid regions is larger than in wet regions. PRR in arid regions has obvious seasonal variation, ranging from more than 25 % to less than 1 %. Furthermore, in arid regions, PRR is significantly negatively correlated with precipitation (correlation coefficient r = -0.5, exceeding the 99 % significance level). Moreover, the trend of PRR is related to changes in precipitation in two ways. PRR decreases with increasing precipitation in North Africa, which implies that less locally evaporated vapor converts into actual precipitation. However, in Asian arid regions, the PRR increases as precipitation reduces, which implies that more locally evaporated vapor converts into rainfall. Further, as PRR mainly depends on evapotranspiration, the PRR trend in Asian arid regions develops as temperature increases and more evaporated vapor enters the atmosphere to offset the reduced rainfall.

Detection of Changes in Ground-Level Ozone Concentrations via Entropy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuehua Wu

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Ground-level ozone concentration is a key indicator of air quality. Theremay exist sudden changes in ozone concentration data over a long time horizon, which may be caused by the implementation of government regulations and policies, such as establishing exhaust emission limits for on-road vehicles. To monitor and assess the efficacy of these policies, we propose a methodology for detecting changes in ground-level ozone concentrations, which consists of three major steps: data transformation, simultaneous autoregressive modelling and change-point detection on the estimated entropy. To show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, the methodology is applied to detect changes in ground-level ozone concentration data collected in the Toronto region of Canada between June and September for the years from 1988 to 2009. The proposed methodology is also applicable to other climate data.

Regional Changes in the Timber Resources of and Lumber Production in Pennsylvania

Science.gov (United States)

William G. Luppold; Matthew S. Bumgardner; Matthew S. Bumgardner

2005-01-01

In this study we examine regional differences in the hardwood timber resources of Pennsylvania and explain how the combined changes in this resource and in lumber prices have influenced regional lumber production. Isolation of these relationships is important because shifts in lumber production affect harvesting levels and harvesting activity influences long-term...

Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

Science.gov (United States)

,

1995-01-01

Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

Effects of technological change in regional labor markets in Mexico

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Reyna Elizabeth Rodríguez Pérez

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Technological change has meant that organizations require workers with higher qualifications, development, implementation and adaptation of technology looking to stay at the forefront in international competitiveness. The aim of this paper is to analyze the changes that have occurred in regional labor markets in Mexico on occupational and wage and identify to what extent these changes may have resulted from technological change and if this behavior is spatially homogeneous. The information source is made up of microdata from the National Survey of Urban Employment (Employment Survey 2000–2004. The empirical analysis –considering workers officiating at high and low technological intensity and applying a Mincerian income function with different classification criteria: education, sex, age groups and regions– during the period indicate that there have been significant changes in the Mexican labor market as a result of biased technological change, as it provides statistical evidence indicating the existence of a higher wage premium for subordinates in the technological area, and different effects at the regional level, encouraging more to the border.

Strategic agency and institutional change: investigating the role of universities in regional innovation systems (RISs)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benneworth, Paul Stephen; Pinheiro, Romulo; Karlsen, James

2014-01-01

Past analyses rooted in thick description of regions successful in constructing regional innovation systems have given way to analyses more focused on the intentionality in these processes, and how actors in regions with their own wider networks can shape these high-level changes in regional

Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

Could the changes in regional crop yields be a pointer of climatic change?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trnka, M; Brázdil, R; Olesen, Jørgen E

2012-01-01

This study focuses on the changes in the yield stability of winter wheat and spring barley over the past 140 years and changes in the weather–yield relationships. The study area is located in the Czech Republic in eastern Central Europe between 48°37′–49°30′N and 15°29′–17°55′E and includes 4900 km...... (i.e., compared with the yield level), it showed no change or insignificant increases in the warmest and driest regions. The study also found that the sensitivity to inter-seasonal temperature increase was much more pronounced during 1961–2007 than at the end of the 19th century and that an increase...

Regional Price Levels in the Czech Republic

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Petr Musil

2017-06-01

Full Text Available International comparison belongs to statistical topics which attracts either experts or general public. Official statistics provides estimates of national price levels only. Therefore, official regional analysis is based on national price levels and does not take into account potential differences in prices among regions within a country. Fortunately, researchers have been dealing with them and estimates for several countries are available. The topic is also important in the Czech Republic even two papers focused on regional price levels were published in Statistika journal in 2016. The aim of the paper is to compare both approaches from various perspectives.

Lake seasonality across the Tibetan Plateau and their varying relationship with regional mass changes and local hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Yanbin; Yao, Tandong; Yang, Kun; Sheng, Yongwei; Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Yi, Shuang; Bird, Broxton W.; Zhang, Xiaowen; Zhu, La; Zhang, Guoqing

2017-01-01

The recent growth and deepening of inland lakes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may be a salient indicator of the consequences of climate change. The seasonal dynamics of these lakes is poorly understood despite this being potentially crucial for disentangling contributions from glacier melt and precipitation, which are all sensitive to climate, to lake water budget. Using in situ observations, satellite altimetry and gravimetry data, we identified two patterns of lake level seasonality. In the central, northern, and northeastern TP, lake levels are characterized by considerable increases during warm seasons and decreases during cold seasons, which is consistent with regional mass changes related to monsoon precipitation and evaporation. In the northwestern TP, however, lake levels exhibit dramatic increases during both warm and cold seasons, which deviate from regional mass changes. This appears to be more connected with high spring snowfall and large summer glacier melt. The variable lake level response to different drivers indicates heterogeneous sensitivity to climate change between the northwestern TP and other regions.

Updating the results of glacier contribution to the sea level change

Science.gov (United States)

Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Abdalati, Waleed Dr. (Technical Monitor)

2005-01-01

I have completed an update of global glacier volume change. All data of glacier annual mass balances, surface area over the period 1945/46 till 2004, outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets were included in this update. As the result global glacier volume change have been calculated, also in terms of glacier contribution to sea level change. These results were sent to Working Group 1 and 2 of IPCC-4 as the basis for modeling of sea level towards the end of 2100. In this study I have concentrated on studying glacier systems of different scales, from primary (e.g. Devon ice cap) to regional (e.g. Canadian Arctic), continental scale (e,g., entire Arctic), and global (e.g., change in glacier volume and contribution to sea level rise).

60Co levels in the seawater regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshioka, Mitsuo

1983-01-01

In order to assess the contribution from nuclear power facilities to the 60 Co levels in seawater regions, it is essential to grasp the background values of 60 Co. The following matters are described: 60 Co sources and the respective inputs; nuclear test fallout and nuclear power plants; the 60 Co levels in overseas countries; the 60 Co levels in Japan; the 60 Co levels from nuclear power plants in Fukui prefecture. In the seawater regions around Japan, there have been numerous instances of 60 Co detection; several pCi/kg of dry earth in sea bottom earth and about 1 pCi/kg of raw material in marine life can be considered as the background levels due to nuclear test fallout and nuclear-powered submarines. In the seawater regions of Fukui prefecture, the 60 Co levels appreciably exceeded the above background due to the nuclear power plants, which are insignificant concerning the radiation exposure of the local people. (Mori, K.)

Song competition affects monoamine levels in sensory and motor forebrain regions of male Lincoln's sparrows (Melospiza lincolnii.

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Kendra B Sewall

Full Text Available Male animals often change their behavior in response to the level of competition for mates. Male Lincoln's sparrows (Melospiza lincolnii modulate their competitive singing over the period of a week as a function of the level of challenge associated with competitors' songs. Differences in song challenge and associated shifts in competitive state should be accompanied by neural changes, potentially in regions that regulate perception and song production. The monoamines mediate neural plasticity in response to environmental cues to achieve shifts in behavioral state. Therefore, using high pressure liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection, we compared levels of monoamines and their metabolites from male Lincoln's sparrows exposed to songs categorized as more or less challenging. We compared levels of norepinephrine and its principal metabolite in two perceptual regions of the auditory telencephalon, the caudomedial nidopallium and the caudomedial mesopallium (CMM, because this chemical is implicated in modulating auditory sensitivity to song. We also measured the levels of dopamine and its principal metabolite in two song control nuclei, area X and the robust nucleus of the arcopallium (RA, because dopamine is implicated in regulating song output. We measured the levels of serotonin and its principal metabolite in all four brain regions because this monoamine is implicated in perception and behavioral output and is found throughout the avian forebrain. After controlling for recent singing, we found that males exposed to more challenging song had higher levels of norepinephrine metabolite in the CMM and lower levels of serotonin in the RA. Collectively, these findings are consistent with norepinephrine in perceptual brain regions and serotonin in song control regions contributing to neuroplasticity that underlies socially-induced changes in behavioral state.

Relevance of PLUREL's results to policies at EU, national, regional and local level

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fertner, Christian; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

and results to policies and policy development at the EU-level, as well as the national and regional level. PLUREL has peri-urban land use relationships as its main focus. This includes analysis of drivers, consequences, policies and scenarios for the future. Even though PLUREL aims for pan-European coverage...... of natural resources as well as an attractive development in general. Besides these spatial relevant sector policies, the EU enforces legislation which is translated into spatial explicit instruments on sub-regional level. E.g. the Habitat and Birds Directive caused the development of Natura 2000 areas......, an EU-wide network of nature protection areas. The implementation of Trans-European Networks through funding programmes is another sector policy having an impact on land-use change and rural-urban relations. On the sub-regional scale the perception on overall goals like sustainability can be very...

Present day sea level changes: observation and causes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lombard, A.

2005-11-01

Whereas sea level has changed little over the last 2000 years, it has risen at a rate of about 2 mm/year during the 20. century. This unexpected sea level rise has been attributed to the anthropogenic global warming, recorded over several decades. Sea level variations have been measured globally and precisely for about 12 years due to satellite altimeter missions Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1. These observations indicate a global mean sea level rise of about 3 mm/year since 1993, a value significantly larger than observed during previous decades. Recent observations have allowed us to quantify the various climatic factors contributing to observed sea level change: thermal expansion of sea water due to ocean warming, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in the land water reservoirs. A water budget based on these new observations allows us to partly explain the observed sea level rise. In particular, we show that the thermal expansion explains only 25% of the secular sea level rise as recorded by tide-gauges over the last 50 years, while it contributes about 50% of sea level rise observed over the last decade. Meanwhile, recent studies show that glacier and ice sheet melting could contribute the equivalent of 1 mm/year in sea level rise over the last decade. In addition, the high regional variability of sea level trends revealed by satellite altimetry is mainly due to thermal expansion. There is also an important decadal spatio-temporal variability in the ocean thermal expansion over the last 50 years, which seems to be controlled by natural climate fluctuations. We question for the first time the link between the decadal fluctuations in the ocean thermal expansion and in the land reservoirs, and indeed their climatic contribution to sea level change. Finally a preliminary analysis of GRACE spatial gravimetric observations over the oceans allows us to estimate the seasonal variations in mean sea level due to ocean water mass balance variations

Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

Topography of sound level representation in the FM sweep selective region of the pallid bat auditory cortex.

Science.gov (United States)

Measor, Kevin; Yarrow, Stuart; Razak, Khaleel A

2018-05-26

Sound level processing is a fundamental function of the auditory system. To determine how the cortex represents sound level, it is important to quantify how changes in level alter the spatiotemporal structure of cortical ensemble activity. This is particularly true for echolocating bats that have control over, and often rapidly adjust, call level to actively change echo level. To understand how cortical activity may change with sound level, here we mapped response rate and latency changes with sound level in the auditory cortex of the pallid bat. The pallid bat uses a 60-30 kHz downward frequency modulated (FM) sweep for echolocation. Neurons tuned to frequencies between 30 and 70 kHz in the auditory cortex are selective for the properties of FM sweeps used in echolocation forming the FM sweep selective region (FMSR). The FMSR is strongly selective for sound level between 30 and 50 dB SPL. Here we mapped the topography of level selectivity in the FMSR using downward FM sweeps and show that neurons with more monotonic rate level functions are located in caudomedial regions of the FMSR overlapping with high frequency (50-60 kHz) neurons. Non-monotonic neurons dominate the FMSR, and are distributed across the entire region, but there is no evidence for amplitopy. We also examined how first spike latency of FMSR neurons change with sound level. The majority of FMSR neurons exhibit paradoxical latency shift wherein the latency increases with sound level. Moreover, neurons with paradoxical latency shifts are more strongly level selective and are tuned to lower sound level than neurons in which latencies decrease with level. These data indicate a clustered arrangement of neurons according to monotonicity, with no strong evidence for finer scale topography, in the FMSR. The latency analysis suggests mechanisms for strong level selectivity that is based on relative timing of excitatory and inhibitory inputs. Taken together, these data suggest how the spatiotemporal

Regionalization and Evaluation of Impacts of Climate Change on Mexican Coasts

Science.gov (United States)

Nava-Sanchez, E. H.; Murillo-Jimenez, J. M.; Godinez-Orta, L.; Morales-Perez, R. A.

2009-04-01

the Gulf de California, (IV) Pacific Southwest Coast, and (V) Chiapaneca Coastal Plain. On the Atlantic coast, regions are: (VI) Tamulipeca Coastal Plain, (VII) Veracruzana Volcanic Coast, (VIII) Tabasqueña Coastal Plain, (IX) Yucatan Platform, and (X) Caribean Coast. Secondly, the coastal hazards associated to a rising sea level and increasing strength of coastal processes due to climate change, were analyzed, and allowed us to determine, in order of importance, the following hazards: (a) marine flooding, by sea level rise per se and effect of storm surges; (b) beach erosion by waves, causing lose of beach width or the retreat of the whole beach system, and overwash of sand barriers; (c) fluvial flooding of coastal plains and deltaic areas; (d) salinization of estuaries and aquifers by saltwater intrusion. Finally, after overlying the characteristics of each Coastal Region and its exposition to the identified coastal hazards, we concluded that, Coastal Regions highly vulnerable to sea level rise are number V and VIII, since they show wide lowlands (up to 7 m above MSL), and have high populated areas affected by heavy rain, tropical cyclones and storm surges; regions with moderate vulnerability are number VI, IX and X, which contain lowlands (up to 7 m above MSL), populated areas, exhibit watershed with low sediment production, and are located on the tropical cyclone tracks; regions with moderately low vulnerability are number III and VII, which contain relatively narrow lowlands, important lagoon and deltaic systems, several rivers are affected by anthropogenic activities, and are moderately affected by storms and tropical cyclones; regions with low vulnerability and short coastlines exposed to sea level rise hazards are regions number I and IV, which contain narrow lagoon and deltaic systems; and finally, region II is of a very low vulnerability, with narrow and scarce areas exposed to sea level rise hazards. This project was part of a Research Program on Climate

Holocene relative sea-level changes from North America and the Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

Horton, Benjamin; Engelhart, Simon; Vacchi, Matteo; Khan, Nicole; Peltier, Dick; Roy, Keven

2014-05-01

Reconstructions of Holocene relative sea level (RSL) are important for identifying the ice equivalent meltwater contribution to sea-level change during deglaciation. Holocene RSL reconstructions from near, intermediate and far field regions enable the assessment of earth and ice parameters of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models. RSL reconstructions provide data for estimating rates of spatially variable and ongoing vertical land motion; a requirement for understanding the variation in modern and late Holocene sea level as recorded by instrumental and proxy records. Here we explain the methodology employed to reconstruct former sea levels, which follows the practice of the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP). We produce sea level index points from the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of North America and the Caribbean. Index points are defined as the most reliable observations of former sea levels. They consist of an estimate of X (age) and Y (the position of former RSL). Where a suite of index points are developed for a locality or region, they describe changes in RSL through time and estimate rates of change. A valid index point must meet the following four criteria; (1) location of the sample is known; (2) the altitude of the sample (and the error associated with measuring that altitude) is known; (3) the indicative meaning (the relationship between the sample and a tide level) is estimated; and (4) the age of the sample, which is commonly radiocarbon dated is calibrated to sidereal years using the latest calibration curves. In total databases have over 2000 sea-level index points from formerly ice covered, uplifting regions of Canada, to the region of forebulge collapse along the subsiding mid-Atlantic and mid-Pacific coastlines of the United States, to the tropical regions of the Caribbean. Recent analyses of these new published databases have led to a further refinement of the most recent of the ICE-NG (VMX) series of global models of GIA. The records

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have

Regional differences in climate change impacts on groundwater and stream discharge in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Britt S.B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.

2007-01-01

of the hydrological response to the simulated climate change is highly dependant on the geological setting of the model area. In the Jylland area, characterized by sandy top soils and large interconnected aquifers, groundwater recharge increases significantly, resulting in higher groundwater levels and increasing......Regional impact studies of the effects of future climate change are necessary because projected changes in meteorological variables vary regionally and different hydrological systems can react in various ways to the same changes. In this study the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge...... simulates changes in groundwater head, recharge, and discharge. Precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration increase for both the A2 and B2 scenarios. This results in a significant increase in mean annual net precipitation, but with decreased values in the summer months. The magnitude...

Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

2018-05-01

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

Climatic change impacts in Lombardia region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiorese, G.; Gatto, M.; De Leo, G.

2008-01-01

Climatic change will change significantly our Country through impacts of natural and physical systems, on human health and the productive sectors. This article describes the expected impacts in Lombardia region [it

Contribution of glacier melt to sea-level rise since AD 1865: a regionally differentiated calculation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zuo, Z.; Oerlemans, J.

1997-01-01

The contribution of glacier melt, including the Greenland ice-sheet, to sea-level change since AD 1865 is estimated on the basis of modelled sensitivity of glacier mass balance to climate change and historical temperature data. Calculations are done in a regionally differentiated manner to overcome

Effects of different types of anaesthesia (regional vs general) on serum NO and TNF-α levels in surgical patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Hong

2006-01-01

Objective: To study the effect of anesthesia on changes of serum NO and TNF-α levels in surgical patients. Methods: Serum NO (with biochemical method) and TNF-α (with RIA) levels were determined for 3 times in 31 patients operated under regional anesthesia and 31 patients operated under general anesthesia (both for benign gastric ulcer). The levels were measured before induction of anesthesia, at the beginning of operation, and 1 hr later. Results: In patients under regional anesthesia, both the NO and TNF-α levels increased significantly at the beginning of operation and, 1 hr later, though dropped, remained significantly higher than the levels before induction (P<0.05). NO significant changes of the levels were observed in patients under general anesthesia throughout the operation, and the levels were, as a whole, significantly lower than the levels under regional anesthesia (P<0.05). Conclusion: General anesthesia (combined intravenous and inhalation) could abolish the increase of serum NO and TNF-α levels duning operation. (authors)

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Gong

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

Changing geo-political realities in the Arctic region

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Camilla T. N.

2014-01-01

This article analyzes and discusses how Denmark seeks to manage the changing geopolitical realities in the Arctic region specifically focusing on how Denmark seeks to manage its relations with China in the Arctic region.......This article analyzes and discusses how Denmark seeks to manage the changing geopolitical realities in the Arctic region specifically focusing on how Denmark seeks to manage its relations with China in the Arctic region....

Geospatial compilation of historical water-level changes in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers 1977-2013 and Jasper aquifer 2000-13, Gulf Coast aquifer system, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Michaela R.; Linard, Joshua I.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District has produced an annual series of reports that depict water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, from 1977 to 2013. Changes are determined from water-level measurements between December and March of each year from groundwater wells screened in one of the three aquifers. Existing published maps and unpublished geographic information system (GIS) datasets were compiled into a comprehensive geodatabase of all water-level-change maps produced as part of this multiagency effort. Annual water-level-change maps were georeferenced and digitized where existing GIS data were unavailable (1979–99). Existing GIS data available for 2000–13 were included in the geodatabase. The compilation contains 121 datasets showing water-level changes for each primary aquifer of the Gulf Coast aquifer system: 56 for the Chicot aquifer (1977; 1979–2013 and 1990; 1993–2013), 56 for the Evangeline aquifer (1977; 1979–2013 and 1990; 1993–2013), and 9 for the Jasper aquifer (2000; 2005–13).

The regional characteristics of climatic change in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Longxun

1994-01-01

Using abundant historical records, the Chinese climatologists have analyzed regional climatic change during the past 2,000 years. Recently, more research on regional climatic change has been done by using the data of the instrumental period. The data show that Chinese climatic change has obvious regional characteristics. The average temperature in the whole country has kept increasing since the last century, and reached its highest value in the 1940s, then it decreased. Although there was a warming trend in the 1980s, the temperature declined again. Especially in the area south of 35 degree N and east of 100 degree E in the mainland China, the air temperature decreased continuously from the 1940s. So climatic change in China is not consistent with global warming, but has its own regional characteristics

Location, change and income: The changing regional balance in Denmark endogenous and exogenous drivers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Nils Karl; Cornett, Andreas P.

2017-01-01

Historical the balance between regions within and between countries has changed for many reasons during the past decades. The drivers behind this process has been various from changes in institutional designs that has changed the geographical division of the regions to internal and external changes...

ANALYSIS OF CRISIS LEVEL IN REGIONS OF UKRAINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Abramova

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to identify the crisis level in regions of Ukraine in 2013–2015. The article also determines features, causes, and development of crisis situations in the regions of Ukraine and proposes measures to prevent the emergence and development of crisis situations or their disposal. Methodology. The basis for assessing the level of crisis in the socio-economic development of the region is to determine the level of deviation of actual indicators from the threshold values of socio-economic security. Such an assessment needs justification for the deviation of the actual indicators from the threshold values of socioeconomic security, which will correspond to a certain state of the depth of the crisis. The non-crisis zone characterizes the region as a powerful territorial centre of the country in the social and economic aspects. Actual indicators of the socio-economic development of this region are higher than the threshold values. Given the slowdown in the region’s development, the lack of innovative mechanisms for increasing economic potential, and the expansion of social programs for the population, this region may become a pre-crisis zone. A quantitative indicator of the zone of pre-crisis state, its threshold is numerical measurements, characterized by a 25-percent deviation from the threshold level of the non-crisis zone, which corresponds to the limits of indicators from 1.0 to 0.75. The growth of the same pace of socio-economic development, the implementation of effective measures of crisis management will lead to the transition of the region into a non-crisis zone. With a further fall in the level of socio-economic development, the region will fall into a zone of moderate crisis. In order to return to a precrisis state, regional authorities should develop a reactive anti-crisis strategy and effective rehabilitation programs. A quantitative indicator of this zone, its threshold is numerical measurements, which

Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

Science.gov (United States)

Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

2017-12-01

Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

Local and Regional Partnerships in Natural Resource Management: The Challenge of Bridging Institutional Levels

Science.gov (United States)

Prager, Katrin

2010-11-01

Although collaboration and multi-stakeholder partnerships have become a common feature in natural resource management throughout the world, various problems are associated with attempts to up-scale community-based natural resource management from the local to the regional level. To analyze the reasons behind these problems, this article reports on two examples of collaboratives in Australia: local Landcare groups, and regional natural resource management (NRM) bodies. Recent government-induced changes have shifted the focus from local Landcare group action to strategic planning and implementation by regional NRM bodies. Two typologies of collaboratives are applied to analyze the characteristics of both these groups. The study uses data from 52 qualitative interviews with key informants at the local and regional level in Victoria and Tasmania, participant observation, as well as literature and document analysis. The article illustrates how the groups’ distinct characteristics can cause conflicts when the different types of collaboratives operate in parallel. In addition, the article reports how stakeholders perceive the level of community participation in decision-making processes. The key message is that the benefits of community participation and collaboration that arise at the local level can be lost when these approaches are up-scaled to the regional level unless there is an intermediary or ‘mediating structure’ to facilitate communication and create the link between different types of collaboratives.

Regional Approach to Building Operational Level Capacity for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In order to strengthen public health disaster management capacities at the operational level in six countries of the Eastern Africa region, the USAID-funded leadership project worked through the HEALTH Alliance, a network of seven schools of public health from six countries in the region to train district-level teams.

Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Souza Soler, L.; Verburg, P.H.

2010-01-01

Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to

Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

2010-12-14

This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

The Water Level Fall of Lake Megali Prespa (N Greece): an Indicator of Regional Water Stress Driven by Climate Change and Amplified by Water Extraction?

Science.gov (United States)

van der Schriek, Tim; Giannakopoulos, Christos

2014-05-01

The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change, with future projections predicting an increase in excessive drought events and declining rainfall. Regional freshwater ecosystems are particularly threatened: precipitation decreases, while extreme droughts increase and human impacts intensify (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Many Mediterranean lake-wetland systems have shrunk or disappeared over the past two decades. Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity and for ensuring sustainable water availability. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of lake-wetland hydrological responses to natural and human-induced changes, which is currently lacking in many parts of the Mediterranean. The interconnected Prespa-Ohrid Lake system is a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism. The unprecedented fall in water level (~8m) of Lake Megali Prespa threatens this system, but causes remain debated. Modelling suggests that the S Balkan will experience rainfall and runoff decreases of ~30% by 2050. However, projections revealing the potential impact of these changes on future lake level are unavailable as lake regime is not understood. A further drop in lake level may have serious consequences. The Prespa Lakes contribute ~25% of the total inflow into Lake Ohrid through underground karst channels; falling lake levels decrease this discharge. Lake Ohrid, in turn, feeds the Drim River. This entire catchment may therefore be affected by falling lake levels; its water resources are of great importance for Greece, Albania, FYROM and Montenegro (e.g. tourism, agriculture, hydro-energy, urban & industrial use). This new work proves that annual water level fluctuations of Lake Megali Prespa are predominantly related to precipitation during the first 7 months (Oct-Apr) of the hydrological year (Oct-Sep). Lake level is very sensitive to regional and

Contributions of changes in climatology and perturbation and the resulting nonlinearity to regional climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Adachi, Sachiho A; Nishizawa, Seiya; Yoshida, Ryuji; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Ando, Kazuto; Yashiro, Hisashi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Tomita, Hirofumi

2017-12-20

Future changes in large-scale climatology and perturbation may have different impacts on regional climate change. It is important to understand the impacts of climatology and perturbation in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic changes. Although many studies have investigated the influence of climatology changes on regional climate, the significance of perturbation changes is still debated. The nonlinear effect of these two changes is also unknown. We propose a systematic procedure that extracts the influences of three factors: changes in climatology, changes in perturbation and the resulting nonlinear effect. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the procedure, applying it to future changes in precipitation. All three factors have the same degree of influence, especially for extreme rainfall events. Thus, regional climate assessments should consider not only the climatology change but also the perturbation change and their nonlinearity. This procedure can advance interpretations of future regional climates.

Relative sea-level changes and crustal movements in Britain and Ireland since the Last Glacial Maximum

Science.gov (United States)

Shennan, Ian; Bradley, Sarah L.; Edwards, Robin

2018-05-01

The new sea-level database for Britain and Ireland contains >2100 data points from 86 regions and records relative sea-level (RSL) changes over the last 20 ka and across elevations ranging from ∼+40 to -55 m. It reveals radically different patterns of RSL as we move from regions near the centre of the Celtic ice sheet at the last glacial maximum to regions near and beyond the ice limits. Validated sea-level index points and limiting data show good agreement with the broad patterns of RSL change predicted by current glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. The index points show no consistent pattern of synchronous coastal advance and retreat across different regions, ∼100-500 km scale, indicating that within-estuary processes, rather than decimetre- and centennial-scale oscillations in sea level, produce major controls on the temporal pattern of horizontal shifts in coastal sedimentary environments. Comparisons between the database and GIA model predictions for multiple regions provide potentially powerful constraints on various characteristics of global GIA models, including the magnitude of MWP1A, the final deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet and the continued melting of Antarctica after 7 ka BP.

Changes of serum prolactin level in patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng Jian; Li Hairu; Chen Yaming; Tang Guihong; Xu Yalan

2004-01-01

To investigate the change of serum prolactin (PRL) level in patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma, serum PRL level in 79 normal person and 68 cases of patient s was measured by RIA. The result showed that serum PRL level was significantly higher in 26 patients (38.2%, 26/68) than that in the control (P 0.05) between the sex and region of lesion. The above results indicated that proportion of patient with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma was hyperprolactinaemia and the change of PRL was related to the development in oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma. (authors)

Regional climate change-Science in the Southeast

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Sonya A.

2010-01-01

Resource managers are at the forefront of a new era of management. They must consider the potential impacts of climate change on the Nation's resources and proactively develop strategies for dealing with those impacts on plants, animals, and ecosystems. This requires rigorous, scientific understanding of environmental change. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in this effort is to analyze climate-change data and develop tools for assessing how changing conditions are likely to impact resources. This information will assist Federal, State, local, and tribal partners manage resources strategically. The 2008 Omnibus Budget Act and Secretarial Order 3289 established a new network of eight Department of Interior Regional Climate Science Centers to provide technical support for resource managers. The Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) is the first regional assessment to be funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (http://nccw.usgs.gov/). The USGS is working closely with the developing Department of Interior Landscape Conservation Cooperatives to ensure that the project will meet the needs of resource managers in the Southeast. In addition, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is providing resources to the SERAP to expand the scope of the project.

Functional integration changes in regional brain glucose metabolism from childhood to adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Trotta, Nicola; Archambaud, Frédérique; Goldman, Serge; Baete, Kristof; Van Laere, Koen; Wens, Vincent; Van Bogaert, Patrick; Chiron, Catherine; De Tiège, Xavier

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the age-related changes in resting-state neurometabolic connectivity from childhood to adulthood (6-50 years old). Fifty-four healthy adult subjects and twenty-three pseudo-healthy children underwent [(18) F]-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography at rest. Using statistical parametric mapping (SPM8), age and age squared were first used as covariate of interest to identify linear and non-linear age effects on the regional distribution of glucose metabolism throughout the brain. Then, by selecting voxels of interest (VOI) within the regions showing significant age-related metabolic changes, a psychophysiological interaction (PPI) analysis was used to search for age-induced changes in the contribution of VOIs to the metabolic activity in other brain areas. Significant linear or non-linear age-related changes in regional glucose metabolism were found in prefrontal cortices (DMPFC/ACC), cerebellar lobules, and thalamo-hippocampal areas bilaterally. Decreases were found in the contribution of thalamic, hippocampal, and cerebellar regions to DMPFC/ACC metabolic activity as well as in the contribution of hippocampi to preSMA and right IFG metabolic activities. Increases were found in the contribution of the right hippocampus to insular cortex and of the cerebellar lobule IX to superior parietal cortex metabolic activities. This study evidences significant linear or non-linear age-related changes in regional glucose metabolism of mesial prefrontal, thalamic, mesiotemporal, and cerebellar areas, associated with significant modifications in neurometabolic connectivity involving fronto-thalamic, fronto-hippocampal, and fronto-cerebellar networks. These changes in functional brain integration likely represent a metabolic correlate of age-dependent effects on sensory, motor, and high-level cognitive functional networks. Hum Brain Mapp 37:3017-3030, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Late quaternary sea level changes of Gabes coastal plain and shelf ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

site to study coastal changes at time scale, rang- ing from ... regional shoreline during MIS 5c (100 ka) and MIS .... Remote sensing drainage network anal- ... Around Gabes city, the Pleistocene deposits are ... tems are well developed and fluvial discharges are ..... relative sea-level rise: A case study from trab el makhadha.

Continental and Marine Environmental changes in Europe induced by Global Climate variability and Regional Paleogeography Changes

OpenAIRE

Popescu , Speranta - Maria

2008-01-01

version originale; My PhD and post-doctorate researches have focused on paleoclimatic, paleogeographical and paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the Mediterranean Basin and its adjacent seas (i.e. the residual former Paratethys) since 11 Ma. During this time-interval the Mediterranean marine and continental environments were affected by significant paleogeographic changes, forced by global climate and sea-level variability, plate tectonics and regional uplift of Alps s.l. and Carpathians. Tw...

Semi-arid Northeast Brazil: integrated modelling of regional development and global change impacts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krol, Martinus S.; Fuhr, Dagmar; Döring, Andreas; Unruh, Jon D.; Krol, Maarten S.; Kliot, Nurit

2004-01-01

Societies in semi-arid areas in developing regions are amongst those most vulnerable to climate variability and potentially most vulnerable to climate change. The vulnerability to climate variability emerges from a combination of the level of availability of natural resources and the human

Measuring Regional Price Levels in the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiří Mrázek

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Regional price level comparison in the Czech Republic was a topic not touched until recently. Then a team of researchers from the University of Economics in Prague pioneered the way for NUTS 3 regions for the year 2007 and repeatedly in 2012. Another step to establish more reliable results came together with a research team of the Technical University in Liberec, which brought qualitatively new and well advanced approaches. This article aims to discuss some aspects of the two attempts to establish regional price level compariso in the Czech Republic.

Regional climate change and national responsibilities

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

2016-03-01

Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

Security Situation in China’s Neighboring Regions: New Changes

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHU FENG

2016-01-01

Recent Development of Security Structure in East Asia Region:Alliance Politics Has Entered a New Strategic Active Stage Since the end of the Cold War in1991,the East Asia Region has witnessed quite a number of changes in security situation.However,there have been no decisive changes in regional security order,power distribution or the strategic choices of major states in the region.The Obama Adminis-

Monitoring ground elevation changes in the Larderello geothermal region, Tuscan, Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dini, I.; Rosi, A.; Rossi, A.

1990-01-01

In 1921-1923 a precise levelling network, with more than 200 km of lines, was set up and measured in the Tuscan geothermal region comprising the Larderello area. In 1985-1986 this topographic network was rearranged and levelling measurements were repeated. Negative elevation changes reaching a maximum of about 170 cm were observed across the areas of maximum fluid withdrawal and maximum fluid pressure decline. Levelling measurements carried out in 1989 show that elevation changes are no longer evident in the central Larderello area, but subsidence of less than 3 cm can still be observed in some nearby areas exploited recently. The measured subsidence values cannot be ascribed solely to the compaction of reservoir rocks, as this would entail a pressure decline down to about 10 km depth. In this paper since this figure seems excessive the authors hypothesize that compaction of the cover terrains is also involved

Postglacial relative sea level change at Fildes Peninsula, King George Island (West Antarctic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. V. Polishchuk

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Analysis and integration of data obtained in our field and laboratory investigations of 2008–2012 together with results of previous paleogeographic studies were conducted to reveal parameters and factors of the post-glacial changes in the relative sea-level on the Fildes Peninsula and the King George Island. Results of dating of organic material taken from cross-sections of Quaternary deposits, data on morphology of marine landforms as well as on bottom sediments in lakes were used to construct a curve of changes in the relative sea-level.Our research has shown that the rapid rise of relative sea level in the area (since the beginning of the Holocene decelerated about 8000 years BP, achieving its maximum about 7000 years BP. This was followed by the fall of relative sea-level (the land elevation by 18–20  m in total, and it was characterized by relatively high rate of fall during periods of 6000– 5000 years BP, 4000–2500 years BP, and during the last 1500 years; the rate decreased in 5000–4000 years BP and 2500– 1600 years BP. The changes in relative sea level in this region were determined by the following factors: the eustatic component of the global changes in sea-level and, possibly, oscillations in the global sea level of another nature; local parameters of the Last glacial maximum; a course of the Peninsula deglaciation; regional physical characteristics of the Earth's crust and the mantle substances; local tectonic processes, including the isostatic rebound. Since the beginning of the Holocene up to about 7000 years BP, the main contribution to changes of the relative sea-level in this area was made by the global eustatic factor. The subsequent fall of the relative sea-level (elevation of the Peninsula surface proceeded under condition of reduced role of the eustatic factor and predominance of other factors.

Climate change/variability science and adaptive strategies for state and regional transportation decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

The objective of this study was to generate a baseline understanding of current policy responses to climate : change/variability at the state and regional transportation-planning and -decision levels. Specifically, : researchers were interested in th...

Late regional density changes of the lung after radiotherapy for breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vagane, Randi; Danielsen, Turi; Fossa, Sophie Dorothea; Lokkevik, Erik; Olsen, Dag Rune

2009-01-01

Background and purpose: To investigate density changes in lung tissue, 3-4 years after postoperative adjuvant radiotherapy for breast cancer, based on dose dependence and regional differences. Material and methods: Sixty-one breast cancer patients, who had received computed tomography (CT) based postoperative radiotherapy, were included. CT scans were performed 35-51 months after start of radiotherapy. Dose information and CT scans from before and after radiotherapy were geometrically aligned in order to analyse changes in air-filled fraction (derived from CT density) as a function of dose for different regions of the lung. Results: Dose-dependent reduction of the air-filled fraction was shown to vary between the different regions of the lung. For lung tissue receiving about 50 Gy, the largest reduction in air-filled fraction was found in the cranial part of the lung. An increased air-filled fraction was observed for lung tissue irradiated to doses below 20 Gy, indicating compensatory response. Conclusions: The treatment-induced change in whole-lung density is a weighted response, involving the different regions, the irradiated volumes, and dose levels to these volumes. Simplistic models may therefore not be appropriate for describing the whole-lung dose-volume-response relationship following inhomogeneous irradiation

Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Ostberg, Sebastian; Schewe, Jacob; Childers, Katelin; Frieler, Katja

2018-05-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the policy discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models often use global mean temperature change (ΔGMT) as a sole measure of climate change and, therefore, need to describe impacts as a function of ΔGMT. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with ΔGMT. It is less clear to what extent more complex biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ΔGMT, even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ΔGMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast estimation of crop yield changes for emissions scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ΔGMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we find that the variability in crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model, geographical patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations.

Water-level altitudes 2017 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper Aquifers and compaction 1973–2016 in the Chicot and Evangeline Aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Ramage, Jason K.

2017-08-16

Most of the land-surface subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction of the aquifer sediments, mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. This report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2017 water-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2016 through March 2017) and long-term water-level changes for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer (hereinafter referred to as “extensometer”) sites; and graphs depicting measured long-term cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments at the extensometers during 1973–2016.In 2017, water-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet (ft) below the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter referred to as “datum”) in two localized areas in southwestern and northwestern Harris County to 200 ft above datum in west-central Montgomery County. The largest water-level-altitude decline (120 ft) depicted by the 1977–2017 water-level-change contours for the Chicot aquifer was in northwestern Harris County. A broad area where water-level altitudes declined in the Chicot aquifer extends from northwestern, north-central, and southwestern Harris County

Regional technological change in US coal mines: 1951-76

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lakhani, H A

1982-04-01

This paper analyses technological change in coal mines in five regions - the Northern and Southern Appalachians, the Rocky Mountains, the Interior and Gulf and Northern Great Plains. Section 2 deals with changes in production profiles, over time, of the regions by dividing coal mines into underground and surface mines. It concludes that the Appalachian regions are the declining regions with lower labour productivity and that the Northern Great Plains, with its increasing labour productivity, is the expanding region. Section 3 presents a methodology of S-shaped growth curves. Section 4 reports empirical results for growth rates of adoption of the newer techniques across regions. These results reveal that the Northern Great Plains region is not absorbing the manpower and resources released by the Appalachian regions so that there are shortages in the former in the face of unemployment in the latter. There is, therefore, an opportunity for the declining Appalachian regions to inform their surplus manpower and resources about the growth centre in the north and prepare them for relocation, retraining and readjustment to the changes. (11 refs.)

Twitter Analytics: Are the U.S. Coastal Regions Prepared for Climate Change in 2017?

Science.gov (United States)

Singleton, S. L.; Kumar, S.

2017-12-01

According to the U.S. National Climate Assessment, the Southeast Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States are particularly susceptible to sea level rise, heat waves, hurricanes and less accessibility to clean water due to climate change. This is because of the extreme variation of topography in these two regions. Preparation for climate change consequences can only occur with conversation, which is a method of bringing awareness to the issue. Over the past decade, social media has taken over the spectrum of information exchange in the United States. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is a field that is emerging with the growth in popularity of social media. SNA is the practice of analyzing trends in volume and opinion of a population of social media users. Twitter, one popular social media platform, is one of the largest microblogging sites in the world, and it provides an abundance of data related to the trending topics such as climate change. Twitter analytics is a type of SNA performed on data from the tweets of Twitter users. In this work, Twitter analytics is performed on the data generated from the Twitter users in the United States, who were talking about climate change, global warming and/or CO2, over the course of one year (July 2016 - June 2017). Specifically, a regional comparative analysis on the coastal U.S. regions was conducted to recognize which region(s) is/are falling behind on the conversation about climate change. Sentiment analysis was also performed to understand the trends in opinion about climate change that vary over time. Experimental results determined that the southeast coast of the United States is deficient in their discussion about climate change compared to the other coastal regions. Igniting the conversation about this issue in these regions will mitigate the disasters due to climate change by increasing awareness in the people of these regions so they can properly prepare.

Ice sheet-ocean interactions and sea level change

Science.gov (United States)

Heimbach, Patrick

2014-03-01

Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has increased rapidly since the mid-1990s. Their combined loss now accounts for about one-third of global sea level rise. In Greenland, a growing body of evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which this dynamic response originated. Similarly, ice streams in West Antarctica that feed vast floating ice shelves have exhibited large decadal changes. We review observational evidence and present physical mechanisms that might explain the observed changes, in particular in the context of ice sheet-ocean interactions. Processes involve cover 7 orders of magnitudes of scales, ranging from mm boundary-layer processes to basin-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean variability. We discuss observational needs to fill the gap in our mechanistic understanding.

Growth-based Theories for Declining Regions? A Note on Conceptualisations of Demographic Change for Regional Economic Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anke Matuschewski

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This article aims to critically assess the economic growth paradigm, which typically underlies most approaches to regional policymaking for demographic change. While population losses, ageing and outmigration – i.e. phenomena that are addressed as demographic change – have become a matter of urgency for many European regions, most regional economic development theories remain silent about the population decline affecting the economic growth and development prospects of regions. Consequently, regional policies usually rely on the concept of economic growth, yet neglect the complexity and importance of demographic change and how it relates to the economic sphere. Due to this lack in nuance, we argue that regional policymaking fails to design adequate policy support for regions facing persistent demographic change and economic stagnation or decline as a result. Based on these observations, the paper examines a selection of regional economic development theories in search for alternative concepts of growth and development in the context of demographic change. To this aim, globalisation peripheries are introduced as a fruitful conceptual point of reference and, in combination with endogenous regional development theories, discussed as an alternative approach for regional policymaking.

Detecting Damaged Building Regions Based on Semantic Scene Change from Multi-Temporal High-Resolution Remote Sensing Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jihui Tu

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The detection of damaged building regions is crucial to emergency response actions and rescue work after a disaster. Change detection methods using multi-temporal remote sensing images are widely used for this purpose. Differing from traditional methods based on change detection for damaged building regions, semantic scene change can provide a new point of view since it can indicate the land-use variation at the semantic level. In this paper, a novel method is proposed for detecting damaged building regions based on semantic scene change in a visual Bag-of-Words model. Pre- and post-disaster scene change in building regions are represented by a uniform visual codebook frequency. The scene change of damaged and non-damaged building regions is discriminated using the Support Vector Machine (SVM classifier. An evaluation of experimental results, for a selected study site of the Longtou hill town of Yunnan, China, which was heavily damaged in the Ludian earthquake of 14 March 2013, shows that this method is feasible and effective for detecting damaged building regions. For the experiments, WorldView-2 optical imagery and aerial imagery is used.

Reconstruction of regional climate and climate change in past decades

Science.gov (United States)

von Storch, H.; Feser, F.; Weisse, R.; Zahn, M.

2009-12-01

Regional climate models, which are constrained by large scale information (spectral nudging) provided by re-analyses, allow for the construction of a mostly homogeneous description of regional weather statistics since about 1950. The potential of this approach has been demonstrated for Northern Europe. That data set, named CoastDat, does not only contain hourly data on atmospheric variables, in particular wind, but also on marine weather, i.e., short term water level, current and sea state variations. Another example is the multi-decadal variability of Polar Lows in the subarctic waters. The utility of such data sets is broad, from risk assessments related to coastal wind and wave conditions, assessment of determining the causes for regional climate change, a-posteriori analysis of the efficiency of environmental legislation (example: lead). In the paper, the methodology is outlined, examples are provided and the utility of the product discussed.

Rate of Change in Lake Level and its Impact on Reservoir-triggered Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, D. W.

2017-12-01

With recent interest in increased seismicity related to fluid injection, it is useful to review cases of reservoir-triggered earthquakes to explore common characteristics and seek ways to mitigate the influence of anthropogenic impacts. Three reservoirs - Koyna, India; Nurek, Tajikistan; and Aswan, Egypt - are well-documented cases of triggered earthquakes with recorded time series of seismicity and water levels that extend for more than 30 years. The geological setting, regional tectonics and modes of reservoir utilization, along with the characteristics of the reservoir-seismicity interaction, are distinctly different in each of these three cases. Similarities and differences between these three cases point to regional and local geological and hydrological structures and the rate of changes in reservoir water level as important factors controlling the presence and timing of triggered seismicity. In a manner similar to the way in which the rate of fluid injection influences injection-related seismicity, the rate of change in reservoir water level is a significant factor in determining whether or not reservoir-triggered seismicity occurs. The high rate of annual water level rise may be important in sustaining the exceptionally long sequence of earthquakes at Koyna. In addition to the rate of filling being a determining factor in whether or not earthquakes are triggered, changes in the rate of filling may influence the time of occurrence of individual earthquakes.

Improving the Assessment of the Level of Regional Resources Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taraday Vladimir N.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The work improves the assessment of the level of managing development resources by regions of Ukraine, which is based on the use of a comprehensive assessment — multidimensional comparative analysis (namely the rank-sum test and allows comparing the effectiveness of managing resource development in regions of Ukraine using the available data, on their status on the basis of a unified system of indicators, as well as comparing the level of managing development resources by each region of Ukraine in time. The uneven development of regions of the country is investigated, the growth of inter-regional socio-economic disproportions is revealed. It is determined that, having a fundamentally different composition and volume of natural, human, financial resources, the state and effectiveness of managing development resources by regions of Ukraine is significantly different. The level of managing development resources by regions of Ukraine is proposed to be assessed by the aggregate indicators characterizing the increase in the productivity of the regional economy, profitability of local business, and level of incomes of the population; general increase in social standards, quality of life and business environment.

Population dynamics, delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong, Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

OpenAIRE

Szabo, S.; Brondizio, E.; Renaud, F.G.; Hetrick, S.; Nicholls, R.; Matthews, Z.; Tessler, Z; Tejedor, A; Sebesvari, Z; Foufoula-Georgiou, E; da Costa, S; Dearing, J.A.

2016-01-01

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient pol...

NASA Sea Level Change Portal - It not just another portal site

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, T.; Quach, N.; Abercrombie, S. P.; Boening, C.; Brennan, H. P.; Gill, K. M.; Greguska, F. R., III; Jackson, R.; Larour, E. Y.; Shaftel, H.; Tenenbaum, L. F.; Zlotnicki, V.; Moore, B.; Moore, J.; Boeck, A.

2017-12-01

The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (https://sealevel.nasa.gov) is designed as a "one-stop" source for current sea level change information, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. With increasing global temperatures warming the ocean and melting ice sheets and glaciers, there is an immediate need both for accelerating sea level change research and for making this research accessible to scientists in disparate discipline, to the general public, to policy makers and business. The immersive and innovative NASA portal debuted at the 2015 AGU attracts thousands of daily visitors and over 30K followers on Facebook®. Behind its intuitive interface is an extensible architecture that integrates site contents, data for various sources, visualization, horizontal-scale geospatial data analytic technology (called NEXUS), and an interactive 3D simulation platform (called the Virtual Earth System Laboratory). We will present an overview of our NASA portal and some of our architectural decisions along with discussion on our open-source, cloud-based data analytic technology that enables on-the-fly analysis of heterogeneous data.

The EU and Climate Change Policy: Law, Politics and Prominence at Different Levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chad David Damro

2008-11-01

Full Text Available The European Union (EU is a prominent player in the politics of climate change, operating as an authoritative regional actor that influences policy-making at the national and international levels. The EU’s climate change policies are thus subjected to multiple pressures that arise from the domestic politics of its twenty-seven individual member states and the international politics of non-EU states with which it negotiates. Facing these multiple pressures, how and why could such a non-traditional actor develop into a prominent player at different levels of climate change policy-making? This article argues that the EU’s rise to prominence can be understood by tracking a number of historical-legal institutional developments at the domestic and international levels. The article also provides a preliminary investigation of the EU emissions trading scheme, a new institutional mechanism that illustrates the policy pressures arising from different levels.

Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment Considering Potential Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, S.; Holcombe, E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.

2016-12-01

Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around potential future rainfall triggers. We demonstrate how GSA can be used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

Climate Change Assessments for Lakes Region of Turkey

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Ayten Erol

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Climate change is one of the most important challenges for forestry. Forests are known to be most efficient natural tools to ensure availability and quality of water in many regions. Besides, planning of forest resources towards water quality and quantity is essential in countries that are expected to face with more frequent drought periods in the next decades due to climate change. Watershed management concept has been supposed as the primary tool to plan natural resources in a more efficient and sustainable way by both academicians and practitioners to mitigate and adapt climate change. Forest cover among other land use types provides the best regulating mechanism to mitigate erosion, sedimentation, desertification, and pollution. In addition, climate change can potentially affect forest stand dynamics by influencing the availability of water resources. Therefore, the amount of forest cover in a watershed is an indicator of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climate change is a concern and risk for the sustainability of water resources in Lakes Region of Turkey. The objective of this study is to make a comprehensive assessment in lake watersheds of the Lakes region considering the forest cover. For this purpose, the study gives a general view of trends in climatic parameters using Mann Kendall trend test. The results showed that Mann Kendall trend test for temperature and precipitation data is not enough to evaluate the magnitude of potential changes of climate in terms of forest cover. Understanding impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest cover, runoff data should be evaluated with temperature and precipitation for watersheds of forest areas in Lakes Region.

A study on Sea Level Change for Coast of Korean Peninsular from Global Warming and Its Influences I

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cho, K.W.; Kim, J.H. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

2001-12-01

cm with a median value of 48cm. The projected range of the sea level rise is 2.2{approx} 4.4 times higher than that of 20th century. The ocean thermal expansion leads the 21st century sea level rise. The melting of glacier also gives considerable contribution to the 21st sea level rise. The regional distribution of future sea level change will be quite complex because of the regional distribution of thermal expansion, heat transport into ocean interiors, ocean circulation changes by the change of density structure with temperature and salinity changes, horizontal heat transport changes due to the ocean circulation changes, wind field changes to climate change, etc. It is projected that the regional variation will be large compared to the global mean value. The state-of-the-art climate model predictions on the regional distribution of the 21st sea level change show little similarity between models except the Arctic Ocean and Antarctic Ocean. This implies the confidence of current climate model is low in the prediction of the regional distribution of sea level change. In order to investigate the sea level change on the neighboring seas of Korea, the sea level trends of the 65 PSMSL(Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level) tide-station data located at the Korea, Japan, and China are calculated by a simple linear regression after a post-glacial rebound correction(Peltier, 2001). The mean sea level change is 1.63 mm/yr +2.15 mm/yr, which is in the rage of the IPCC assessment. The analysis of the 23 station at Korea reveals that the East Sea is in the low trend of 0.57 mm/yr than those of the South Sea(3.13mm/yr) and the West Sea(2.64 mm/yr) with an overall mean value of 2.31 mm/yr. However, it is quite questionable that the sea level trends with the tide gauge data on the neighboring seas of Korea relate to global warming because of the relatively short observation period and large spatial variability. In the satellite altimeter data (Topex/Poseidon and ERS), the sea level

Influence of Climate Change and Trophic Coupling across Four Trophic Levels in the Celtic Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Lauria, Valentina; Attrill, Martin J.; Pinnegar, John K.; Brown, Andrew; Edwards, Martin; Votier, Stephen C.

2012-01-01

Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect ‘bottom-up’ climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986–2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66±0.02°C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = −0.305±0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = −0.410±0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species–specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314±0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = −0.144±0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales. PMID:23091621

Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentina Lauria

Full Text Available Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect 'bottom-up' climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986-2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO, the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66 ± 0.02 °C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = -0.305 ± 0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = -0.410 ± 0.193. Seabird demographics showed complex species-specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314 ± 0.014 as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = -0.144 ± 0.05. Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea, emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.

Global Climate Change Consequences Changing the Middle Sea Level in the Brazilian Coast: Impacts on Ceará State

Science.gov (United States)

Lacerda, E. G.; Pires, L. B. M.; Pinto, V. K. E.

2015-12-01

Since the Industrial Revolution, man started to generate increasing amounts of waste and pollutants, which on a large scale in the long term is causing a series of climate change consequences, both globally as well as locally. One of the many effects of these changes has been reflected in the ocean levels, depending on various factors. Thus, the population living in coastal areas suffers from the negative effects of the advancement of ocean waters. The coast of northeastern Brazil is an example of this, especially the state of Ceará coast. The state of Ceará has 573 km of coastline, a region that has suffered extensive erosion, in which the Middle Sea Level (MSL) changes exert a significant influence. The coastal plain is a strip of land of small extent, with an average width of 2.5 km, formed depending on the availability of high sediment stocks provided through the action of wind, marine, or river processes, individually in combination with each other. In many beaches it is observed that the strip of beach is narrow due to the presence of topographic elevations carved into sharp cliffs. Between periods of high tide and low tide, often rocky beach features are observed that have recently formed. The waves control the stretches of beach which are mostly sandy. This paper presents a survey about the evidence already apparent on the rise in the MSL and correlates it with the advance of the sea on the coast of Ceará, as well as assesses the possible consequences of this process. Therefore, a literature search was conducted in relevant scientific publications. The data used are from the station "Global Sea Level Observing System - GLOSS" which maintains a tide gauge installed in Ceará in Fortaleza. The analyses show that the phenomenon has caused a lot of inconvenience to the people, streets have disappeared, as well as several buildings located along the coast. The sea advances destroyed beaches and have promoted an accelerated level of erosion, changing the

A regional response to global climate change: New England and eastern Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houtman, N.

1994-01-01

Resource managers, scientists, and policy makers from New England and eastern Canada assembled at a 1993 symposium to consider the regional implications of global climate change and to develop state and provincial adaptation strategies. A summary is presented of issues discussed at this meeting, information gaps identified, and recommendations for an appropriate regional response. The symposium began with a regional overview and a review of the climate system and possible environmental impacts of global warming. Policy implications were also discussed. Working groups considered issues related to energy use, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry and agriculture, recreation and tourism, and sea level rise. Given the remaining uncertainties about the timing and extent of global warming, especially on a regional scale, the symposium recommended adoption of a series of measures which are beneficial in their own right and in the face of present variations of climate and its extremes. The recommendations were characterized by three broad themes: diversification of the natural resources based economy; risks to human health, ecological communities, and economic infrastructure; and information development and sharing. Proposed strategies were grouped in four major categories: adaptation to future changes; trend assessment; education; and limitation of greenhouse gas emissions

Regional Highlights of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

David L. Peterson; J.M. Wolken; Teresa Hollingsworth; Christian Giardina; J.S. Littell; Linda Joyce; Chris Swanston; Stephen Handler; Lindsey Rustad; Steve McNulty

2014-01-01

Climatic extremes, ecological disturbance, and their interactions are expected to have major effects on ecosystems and social systems in most regions of the United States in the coming decades. In Alaska, where the largest temperature increases have occurred, permafrost is melting, carbon is being released, and fire regimes are changing, leading to a...

Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

Science.gov (United States)

Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

2011-12-01

According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary

An Agent-Based Reasoning of Impacts of Regional Climate Changes on Land Use Changes in the Three-River Headwaters Region of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tao Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The land surface in Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR, a typical ecological fragile zone of China, is quite sensitive to the climate changes which will destabilize certain ecosystem services valuable to the entire nation and neighboring countries. This study aimed to analyze the impacts of climate changes and agents’ adaptive behaviors on the regional land use changes with the agent based model (ABM. First, the main agents were extracted according to the production resources endowments and socioeconomic background. Then the agents’ land use behaviors were analyzed and parameterized. Thereafter, the ABM model was built to simulate the impacts of the climate changes on the regional land use changes and agents’ economic benefits. The results showed that the land use changes were mainly characterized by the increase of grassland and decrease of unused land area. Besides, the agents would get more wealth under the scenario without climate changes in the long term, even though the total income is lower than that under the scenario with climate changes. In addition, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to the climatic conditions, market price of agricultural and animal husbandry products, government subsidies, and cost control.

Potential future changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe simulated by the HIRHAM regional climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2008-05-15

In this study the potential future changes in various aspects of daily precipitation events over Europe as a consequence of the anticipated future increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are investigated. This is done by comparing two 3-member ensembles of simulations with the HIRHAM regional climate model for the period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100, respectively. Daily precipitation events are characterized by their frequency and intensity, and heavy precipitation events are described via 30-year return levels of daily precipitation. Further, extended periods with and without rainfall (wet and dry spells) are studied, considering their frequency and length as well as the average and extreme amounts of precipitation accumulated during wet spells, the latter again described via 30-year return levels. The simulations show marked changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe due to the anticipated greenhouse warming. In winter, for instance, the frequency of wet days is enhanced over most of the European continent except for the region on the Norwegian west coast and the Mediterranean region. The changes in the intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are characterized by a similar pattern except for central Europe with a tendency of decreased 30-year return levels and increased precipitation intensity. In summer, on the other hand, the frequency of wet days is decreased over most of Europe except for northern Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea region. In contrast, the precipitation intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are increased over entire Scandinavia, central and eastern Europe. The changes in the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are generally stronger than the corresponding changes in the precipitation intensity but can have opposite signs in some regions. Also the distribution of wet days is changed in the future. During summer, for instance, both the frequency and the length

Eustatic and Relative Sea Level Changes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rovere, A.; Stocchi, P.; Vacchi, M.

2016-01-01

Sea level changes can be driven by either variationsin the masses or volume of the oceans, or bychanges of the land with respect to the sea surface. Inthe first case, a sea level change is defined ‘eustatic’;otherwise, it is defined ‘relative’. Several techniques canbe used to observe changes in sea

Global and regional climate change: new evidences between two IPCC reports

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mika, J. [Eszterhazy Karoly College, Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Geography

2011-07-01

The climate of our planet has never been constant, but the recent changes are by two orders of magnitude faster than the natural changes since the appearance of anthropogenic effects. The discernable global warming started in the 19th century and after speeding up in the 20th century, it has reached about 0.8 K. This fact and the realization of the likely reasons for the changes, plus rapid development of computer technology have resulted in systematic investigations of climate science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finalized its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. The present paper suveys some recent moments of global and regional climate change issued after the Report. Even the economic crisis was not strong enough to deflect the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing for more than one year. It tends to develop at the upper edge of the IPCC (2007) projection band of uncertainties. The part of the emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere is increasing due to weakening of both the biospheric- and the oceanic sinks of this greenhouse gas. The new radiation balance estimations must admit the imbalance between the atmosphere and the oceans indicating the fact that the greenhouse warming definitely takes place. The year 2010 became most likely the warmest one on the global temperature record. The sea-level rise also follows the most rapid track among the foreseen scenarios. In the meantime modelling effort to better estimate regional features of the changes also develop in their full strength. The ENSEMBLES Project ended in December 2009 and published a lot of maps with 25 km model resolution. These results, however, do not show convergence in the estimations for many regions, including Central Europe.

The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanja Wolf

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate- and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

2012-07-01

The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

Regional adaptation strategies to climate change: Guidelines for urban planning in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maruna Marija

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The problems of climate change significantly alter the character of urban planning. While changes in the planning process are aimed at mechanisms for urgent action in the transformed circumstances in the sense of a deeper understanding of the causes of phenomena and prediction of future changes, modification of specific measures suppose to be related to the regulatory framework for new and existing construction that will lead to reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and the development of resistance to settlements' extreme impacts. The focus has shifted to land-use planning and the development and application of building regulations. It is considered that planning at the local level is an appropriate instrument for solving the problem of climate impacts in the community. In general, urban planning is an instrument of implementation of national strategies for mitigation and adaptation at the local level. Successful implementation of the strategy is based on a developed vertical and horizontal institutional and procedural coordination. In the circumstances of specific context of post-socialist urban restructuring, which is characterized by a lack of developed institutions and appropriate procedures, it is difficult to expect the entire application of prescribed procedures and harmonization of vertical and horizontal spatial development policies. Accordingly, it is recommended that policies be aimed at short-term improvements that are based on existing climate risk management and short-term projections of climate impacts. Among the main recommendations of the regional climate change adaptation strategies related to policy-makers in the field of urban development is to establish new and efficient use of existing legislation in the field of environment and planning. It is believed that most countries in the region have adequate legislation and efforts should be directed towards more effective implementation of existing planning and building

Compilation of the Regional-Level Japan Industrial Productivity Database (R-JIP) (Japanese)

OpenAIRE

TOKUI Joji; MAKINO Tatsuji; FUKAO Kyoji; MIYAGAWA Tsutomu; ARAI Nobuyuki; ARAI Sonoe; INUI Tomohiko; KAWASAKI Kazuyasu; KODAMA Naomi; NOGUCHI Naohiro

2013-01-01

This paper describes the construction of the Regional-Level Japan Industrial Productivity Database (R-JIP), which covers the period from 1970 through 2008 and comprises annual industrial output and factor input data of Japan's 47 prefectures classified by 23 industry. Output is measured in terms of value added, while the input data consist of labor input and capital service input, which take both (time series) quality changes and (cross-sectional) quality differences into account. This databa...

27 CFR 40.113 - Change in location to another region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... another region. 40.113 Section 40.113 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND... Products Changes in Location of Factory § 40.113 Change in location to another region. Whenever a manufacturer of tobacco products intends to remove his factory to another region, the manufacturer shall...

Contrasting records of sea-level change in the eastern and western North Atlantic during the last 300 years

Science.gov (United States)

Long, A. J.; Barlow, N. L. M.; Gehrels, W. R.; Saher, M. H.; Woodworth, P. L.; Scaife, R. G.; Brain, M. J.; Cahill, N.

2014-02-01

We present a new 300-year sea-level reconstruction from a salt marsh on the Isle of Wight (central English Channel, UK) that we compare to other salt-marsh and long tide-gauge records to examine spatial and temporal variability in sea-level change in the North Atlantic. Our new reconstruction identifies an overall rise in relative sea level (RSL) of c. 0.30 m since the start of the eighteenth century at a rate of 0.9±0.3 mm yr. Error-in-variables changepoint analysis indicates that there is no statistically significant deviation from a constant rate within the dataset. The reconstruction is broadly comparable to other tide-gauge and salt-marsh records from the European Atlantic, demonstrating coherence in sea level in this region over the last 150-300 years. In contrast, we identify significant differences in the rate and timing of RSL with records from the east coast of North America. The absence of a strong late 19th/early 20th century RSL acceleration contrasts with that recorded in salt marsh sediments along the eastern USA coastline, in particular in a well-dated and precise sea-level reconstruction from North Carolina. This suggests that this part of the North Carolina sea level record represents a regionally specific sea level acceleration. This is significant because the North Carolina record has been used as if it were globally representative within semi-empirical parameterisations of past and future sea-level change. We conclude that regional-scale differences of sea-level change highlight the value of using several, regionally representative RSL records when calibrating and testing semi-empirical models of sea level against palaeo-records. This is because by using records that potentially over-estimate sea-level rise in the past such models risk over-estimating sea-level rise in the future.

Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-01

authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ Agencies. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR...COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2-20 contingent probabilities given their dependence on non-probabilistic emissions futures, have extended the ranges of...flood risk provides confidence in the associated projection as a true minimum value for risk management purposes. The contemporary rate observed by

Tracking Regional Tissue Volume and Function Change in Lung Using Image Registration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kunlin Cao

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We have previously demonstrated the 24-hour redistribution and reabsorption of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL fluid delivered to the lung during a bronchoscopic procedure in normal volunteers. In this work we utilize image-matching procedures to correlate fluid redistribution and reabsorption to changes in regional lung function. Lung CT datasets from six human subjects were used in this study. Each subject was scanned at four time points before and after BAL procedure. Image registration was performed to align images at different time points and different inflation levels. The resulting dense displacement fields were utilized to track tissue volume changes and reveal deformation patterns of local parenchymal tissue quantitatively. The registration accuracy was assessed by measuring landmark matching errors, which were on the order of 1 mm. The results show that quantitative-assessed fluid volume agreed well with bronchoscopist-reported unretrieved BAL volume in the whole lungs (squared linear correlation coefficient was 0.81. The average difference of lung tissue volume at baseline and after 24 hours was around 2%, which indicates that BAL fluid in the lungs was almost absorbed after 24 hours. Regional lung-function changes correlated with the presence of BAL fluid, and regional function returned to baseline as the fluid was reabsorbed.

Changes of population by age and gender structure of Regions in the Republic of Macedonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Resul Hamiti

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the changes of population by age and the gender structure in the regions of the Republic of Macedonia. Age and gender is very important not only for the development of demographic process but also for the development of regions. They play an important role in planning the health care needs and other services with the socio-economic and cultural character. In this sense they affect the performance of demographic processes (births, deaths, marriages, etc. and are a result of bilateral relations fertility, mortality, migration movements and other social processes. The main objective of this paper is to identify the aging phenomenon of population in state level and regions. This paper also dedicates special importance to the changes of age and sex structure, during the period between1981-2014 in the regions of the republic of Macedonia.

Hydrological implications of land-cover and land-use change: a proposal for spatial analysis at a regional level in the closed Cuitzeo-lake basin, Michoacán

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Mendoza

2012-03-01

Full Text Available This study was undertaken to understand the implications of regional land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC in a spatially distributed water balance (SDWB within a poorly gauged basin in 1975 and 2000. Results from this work were derived by integrating remote sensing and geographic information system tools with a water-balance model, along with the application of a transitional matrix analysis. The analysis of changes in water-balance components, based on landforms and transitional matrices, indicated a small tendency towards improvement in the basin's hydrological conditions at a regional level. However, as a consequence of the increase in urban land-use, the basin's plains piedmonts showed a rice in runoff. In addition, the basins' lower areas exhibited a high demand for water resources due to an increased urban land-use in both years, along with the Cuitzeo lake degradation, particularly in terms of pollution and reduction of surface water inflow. The integrated approach used herein constitutes a viable alternative for understanding changes in the amount and spatial distribution of water available in poorly gauged water basins as a consequence of LCLUC.

27 CFR 40.111 - Change in location within same region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... same region. 40.111 Section 40.111 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND... Products Changes in Location of Factory § 40.111 Change in location within same region. Whenever a manufacturer of tobacco products intends to relocate his factory within the same region, the manufacturer shall...

Region-Based Building Rooftop Extraction and Change Detection

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, J.; Metzlaff, L.; d'Angelo, P.; Reinartz, P.

2017-09-01

Automatic extraction of building changes is important for many applications like disaster monitoring and city planning. Although a lot of research work is available based on 2D as well as 3D data, an improvement in accuracy and efficiency is still needed. The introducing of digital surface models (DSMs) to building change detection has strongly improved the resulting accuracy. In this paper, a post-classification approach is proposed for building change detection using satellite stereo imagery. Firstly, DSMs are generated from satellite stereo imagery and further refined by using a segmentation result obtained from the Sobel gradients of the panchromatic image. Besides the refined DSMs, the panchromatic image and the pansharpened multispectral image are used as input features for mean-shift segmentation. The DSM is used to calculate the nDSM, out of which the initial building candidate regions are extracted. The candidate mask is further refined by morphological filtering and by excluding shadow regions. Following this, all segments that overlap with a building candidate region are determined. A building oriented segments merging procedure is introduced to generate a final building rooftop mask. As the last step, object based change detection is performed by directly comparing the building rooftops extracted from the pre- and after-event imagery and by fusing the change indicators with the roof-top region map. A quantitative and qualitative assessment of the proposed approach is provided by using WorldView-2 satellite data from Istanbul, Turkey.

REGION-BASED BUILDING ROOFTOP EXTRACTION AND CHANGE DETECTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Tian

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Automatic extraction of building changes is important for many applications like disaster monitoring and city planning. Although a lot of research work is available based on 2D as well as 3D data, an improvement in accuracy and efficiency is still needed. The introducing of digital surface models (DSMs to building change detection has strongly improved the resulting accuracy. In this paper, a post-classification approach is proposed for building change detection using satellite stereo imagery. Firstly, DSMs are generated from satellite stereo imagery and further refined by using a segmentation result obtained from the Sobel gradients of the panchromatic image. Besides the refined DSMs, the panchromatic image and the pansharpened multispectral image are used as input features for mean-shift segmentation. The DSM is used to calculate the nDSM, out of which the initial building candidate regions are extracted. The candidate mask is further refined by morphological filtering and by excluding shadow regions. Following this, all segments that overlap with a building candidate region are determined. A building oriented segments merging procedure is introduced to generate a final building rooftop mask. As the last step, object based change detection is performed by directly comparing the building rooftops extracted from the pre- and after-event imagery and by fusing the change indicators with the roof-top region map. A quantitative and qualitative assessment of the proposed approach is provided by using WorldView-2 satellite data from Istanbul, Turkey.

Removing the regional level from the Niger vaccine supply chain.

Science.gov (United States)

Assi, Tina-Marie; Brown, Shawn T; Kone, Souleymane; Norman, Bryan A; Djibo, Ali; Connor, Diana L; Wateska, Angela R; Rajgopal, Jayant; Slayton, Rachel B; Lee, Bruce Y

2013-06-10

Since many of the world's vaccine supply chains contain multiple levels, the question remains of whether removing a level could bring efficiencies. We utilized HERMES to generate a detailed discrete-event simulation model of Niger's vaccine supply chain and compared the current four-tier (central, regional, district, and integrated health center levels) with a modified three-tier structure (removing the regional level). Different scenarios explored various accompanying shipping policies and frequencies. Removing the regional level and implementing a collection-based shipping policy from the district stores increases vaccine availability from a mean of 70-100% when districts could collect vaccines at least weekly. Alternatively, implementing a delivery-based shipping policy from the central store monthly in three-route and eight-route scenarios only increases vaccine availability to 87%. Restricting central-to district vaccine shipments to a quarterly schedule for three-route and eight-route scenarios reduces vaccine availability to 49%. The collection-based shipping policy from district stores reduces supply chain logistics cost per dose administered from US$0.14 at baseline to US$0.13 after removing the regional level. Removing the regional level from Niger's vaccine supply chain can substantially improve vaccine availability as long as certain concomitant adjustments to shipping policies and frequencies are implemented. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections

Science.gov (United States)

Junk, J.; Ulber, B.; Vidal, S.; Eickermann, M.

2015-11-01

Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Junk, J; Ulber, B; Vidal, S; Eickermann, M

2015-11-01

Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy

OpenAIRE

Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel

2014-01-01

We study the impact of regional and sectoral productivity changes on the U.S. economy. To that end, we consider an environment that captures the effects of interregional and intersectoral trade in propagating disaggregated productivity changes at the level of a sector in a given U.S. state to the rest of the economy. The quantitative model we develop features pairwise interregional trade across all 50 U.S. states, 26 traded and non-traded industries, labor as a mobile factor, and structures a...

Regional monitoring of temporal changes in groundwater quality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broers, H.P.; Grift, B. van der

2004-01-01

Changes in agricultural practices are expected to affect groundwater quality by changing the loads of nutrients and salts in recharging groundwater, but regional monitoring networks installed to register the changes often fail to detect them and interpretation of trend analysis results is difficult.

Modeling the Impacts of Changes in Freight Demand, Infrastructure Improvements and Policy Measures on a Metropolitan Region

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

In this research, a policy framework was developed and used as a tool to determine the impacts of change in truck traffic on a regional level as a result of policy change. To achieve the objective, three demand models were used in the framework which...

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

2015-01-01

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

Climate in France during the 21. century - Regionalized scenarios - Reference indices for the metropolitan region - Evolution at sea level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peings, Yannick; Planton, Serge; Deque, Michel; Jamous, Marc; Le Treut, Herve; Gallee, Hubert; Li, Laurent; Jouzel, J.

2011-01-01

After some comments on climate modelling (models, scenarios, uncertainties, regional predictions), the first part reports the study of several temperature indices (minimum, average and maximum daily temperature, number of days with abnormally high or low temperature, number of days of heat wave, number of days with negative temperatures, and so on.), precipitation indices (daily and extreme precipitations, dry periods, snow falls). It also discusses soil humidity index, strong wind index, river flow rate, and sea level. The second part reports simulation results for indices in metropolitan France according to the French Aladin-Climat, LMDZ and MAR models. The third volume reports evolutions and predictions of average sea level at the planet scale and along the French coasts, and discusses impacts related to sea level change (coast erosion, submersion, salt intrusion)

Climate change and tourism in the alpine regions of Switzerland

OpenAIRE

Bürki, R; Abegg, B; Elsasser, H

2007-01-01

For many alpine areas in Switzerland, winter tourism is the most important source of income, and snow-reliability is one of the key elements of the offers made by tourism in the Alps. 85% of Switzerland’s current ski resorts can be designated as snow-reliable. If climate change occurs, the level of snow-reliability will rise from 1200 m up to 1800 m over the next few decades. Only 44% of the ski resorts wouldthen still be snow-reliable. While some regions may be able to maintain their winter ...

High-Level System Change: Protecting Business and Society

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank Dixon

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Over the past 15 years, sustainability has become mainstream in the corporate and financial sectors. But environmental and social conditions are declining rapidly in many regions. Nearly all corporate and financial sector sustainability strategies are focused on company-level activities, such as unilaterally mitigating negative environmental and social impacts. But flawed economic and political systems make it impossible for businesses to mitigate about 80 percent of negative impacts. These impacts often return to harm companies, for example, in the form of market rejection, lawsuits and reputation damage. System change is the most important sustainability issue. Protecting business and society requires substantially shifting the focus of corporate sustainability strategies from company change to system change. A growing number of collaborative system change efforts are being implemented. Most focus on specific issues, sectors or system flaws. They frequently are ineffective because they do not use a whole system approach. All major aspects of human society are connected. Root causes, key leverage points and most effective solutions often lie outside of issue-specific areas. Climate change, economic reform and other complex issues can only be effectively addressed through a whole system approach. This paper summarizes important economic and political system flaws and describes a collaborative, whole system approach for engaging the corporate and financial sectors in system change.

Black gold to green gold: regional energy policy and the rehabilitation of coal in response to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drake, F. [University of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom). School of Geology

2009-03-15

Energy production has come under increasing scrutiny as concerns about energy security and climate change have risen. In the UK changes in government structure and privatisation of the electricity industry have led to the emergence of multi-level governance. This means that decisions on how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity-generating sector should no longer be solely a national policy decision. Previous studies have sought to explore how renewable energy may develop under multi-level governance, but this paper pays attention to a traditional fossil fuel source, coal, which is still an important means of electricity generation. Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel and advocates argue that carbon capture and storage techniques could make coal 'clean', paving the way for a long-term, secure and low emission way to produce energy. This study focuses on the Yorkshire and Humber Region, which has had a long association with coal mining and looks at the implications of this as the region seeks to develop a climate change action plan and an energy strategy within the new regional governance structures. The paper argues that the regional networks developed to address climate change are influenced by existing social power structures and alliances. The region as a territorial structure becomes a useful device in promoting national priorities.

A University-Level Curriculum in Climate Change for SE Asia and the Asian Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Furniss, M. J.; Saah, D. S.; Hines, S. J.; Radel, C. A.; McGroddy, M. E.; Ganz, D. J.

2014-12-01

A university-level curriculum has been developed for the SE Asia and Asia Pacific region and is currently being implemented by 12+ universities; in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea. The curriculum is supported by USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development) through the LEAF program (Lowering Emissions in Asian Forests), under the technical leadership of the U.S. Forest Service. Four modules have been developed: Basic Climate Change, Low-Emissions Land Use Planning, Social and Environmental Soundness, and Carbon Measurement and Monitoring. This presentation will focus on the Basic Climate Change module. This is a survey course that covers a wide range of climate change topics, including causes, effects, and responses. The level of detail in each of the covered topics is calibrated to current issues in the region. The module is elaborated in English and will be translated into the national language of the participating countries. The module is designed to be flexible and can be tailored to both degree and non-degree programs; as well as for trainings for natural resources professionals and policy-makers. Important training topics can be selected as short course trainings for practitioners and leaders working on climate change.

[Regional health and autonomy conferences (CRSAs): the implications for medical democracy at a regional level].

Science.gov (United States)

Devictor, Bernadette

2010-01-01

The HPST law seeks to reorganize the governance of healthcare at a regional level and to maintain the existence of regional health conferences, now known as regional health and autonomy conferences (CRSAs). The purpose of this article is to examine the new duties attributed to the CRSAs and to consider the various issues raised by their practice. The article also provides an analysis of the preconditions required for the successful implementation of medical democracy at a regional level, ie.: the involvement of the CRSAs in the assessment of regional healthcare policies, the mobilization of funds, the composition of the CRSAs (including the full range of healthcare areas), the importance of providing adequate support for territorial conferences, and the elaboration of a communicative space for fostering exchanges between CRSAs.

Changes in the Global Hydrological Cycle: Lessons from Modeling Lake Levels at the Last Glacial Maximum

Science.gov (United States)

Lowry, D. P.; Morrill, C.

2011-12-01

Geologic evidence shows that lake levels in currently arid regions were higher and lakes in currently wet regions were lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Current hypotheses used to explain these lake level changes include the thermodynamic hypothesis, in which decreased tropospheric water vapor coupled with patterns of convergence and divergence caused dry areas to become more wet and vice versa, the dynamic hypothesis, in which shifts in the jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered precipitation patterns, and the evaporation hypothesis, in which lake expansions are attributed to reduced evaporation in a colder climate. This modeling study uses the output of four climate models participating in phase 2 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2) as input into a lake energy-balance model, in order to test the accuracy of the models and understand the causes of lake level changes. We model five lakes which include the Great Basin lakes, USA; Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala; Lake Caçó, northern Brazil; Lake Tauca (Titicaca), Bolivia and Peru; and Lake Cari-Laufquen, Argentina. These lakes create a transect through the drylands of North America through the tropics and to the drylands of South America. The models accurately recreate LGM conditions in 14 out of 20 simulations, with the Great Basin lakes being the most robust and Lake Caçó being the least robust, due to model biases in portraying the ITCZ over South America. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget from one of the climate models shows that thermodynamic processes contribute most significantly to precipitation changes over the Great Basin, while dynamic processes are most significant for the other lakes. Lake Cari-Laufquen shows a lake expansion that is most likely attributed to reduced evaporation rather than changes in regional precipitation, suggesting that lake levels alone may not be the best indicator of how much precipitation this region

Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Trail

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US, one region during summer (Texas, and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast. Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air

The relative importance of impacts from climate change vs. emissions change on air pollution levels in the 21st century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. B. Hedegaard

2013-04-01

Full Text Available So far several studies have analysed the impacts of climate change on future air pollution levels. Significant changes due to impacts of climate change have been made clear. Nevertheless, these changes are not yet included in national, regional or global air pollution reduction strategies. The changes in future air pollution levels are caused by both impacts from climate change and anthropogenic emission changes, the importance of which needs to be quantified and compared. In this study we use the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM driven by meteorological input data from the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and forced with the newly developed RCP4.5 emissions. The relative importance of the climate signal and the signal from changes in anthropogenic emissions on the future ozone, black carbon (BC, total particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 including BC, primary organic carbon (OC, mineral dust and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA and total nitrogen (including NHx + NOy has been determined. For ozone, the impacts of anthropogenic emissions dominate, though a climate penalty is found in the Arctic region and northwestern Europe, where the signal from climate change dampens the effect from the projected emission reductions of anthropogenic ozone precursors. The investigated particles are even more dominated by the impacts from emission changes. For black carbon the emission signal dominates slightly at high latitudes, with an increase up to an order of magnitude larger, close to the emission sources in temperate and subtropical areas. Including all particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 enhances the dominance from emissions change. In contrast, total nitrogen (NHx + NOy in parts of the Arctic and at low latitudes is dominated by impacts of climate change.

The effect of the pathway to a two degrees warmer world on the regional temperature change of Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathrine Fox Maule

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate if the pathway to reach a 2 degree warmer world influences the regional climate in Europe at the time of 2 degrees of global warming above the pre-industrial level. We have investigated this using climate change data from ensembles of both Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models. We compare the change of regional temperature in Europe to the global temperature change for different emission scenarios, following the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, to see if the pathway has any influence. We find that there is a small but significant difference in the regional temperature change, but the effect is small compared to internal variability on the timescales involved in reaching +2 degrees for the investigated emission scenarios. From an adaptation point of view, reaching +2 degrees as slowly as possible will obviously allow for a longer time period to implement adaptation measures to mitigate the effect of climate change.

Natural selection in a population of Drosophila melanogaster explained by changes in gene expression caused by sequence variation in core promoter regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Mitsuhiko P; Makino, Takashi; Kawata, Masakado

2016-02-09

Understanding the evolutionary forces that influence variation in gene regulatory regions in natural populations is an important challenge for evolutionary biology because natural selection for such variations could promote adaptive phenotypic evolution. Recently, whole-genome sequence analyses have identified regulatory regions subject to natural selection. However, these studies could not identify the relationship between sequence variation in the detected regions and change in gene expression levels. We analyzed sequence variations in core promoter regions, which are critical regions for gene regulation in higher eukaryotes, in a natural population of Drosophila melanogaster, and identified core promoter sequence variations associated with differences in gene expression levels subjected to natural selection. Among the core promoter regions whose sequence variation could change transcription factor binding sites and explain differences in expression levels, three core promoter regions were detected as candidates associated with purifying selection or selective sweep and seven as candidates associated with balancing selection, excluding the possibility of linkage between these regions and core promoter regions. CHKov1, which confers resistance to the sigma virus and related insecticides, was identified as core promoter regions that has been subject to selective sweep, although it could not be denied that selection for variation in core promoter regions was due to linked single nucleotide polymorphisms in the regulatory region outside core promoter regions. Nucleotide changes in core promoter regions of CHKov1 caused the loss of two basal transcription factor binding sites and acquisition of one transcription factor binding site, resulting in decreased gene expression levels. Of nine core promoter regions regions associated with balancing selection, brat, and CG9044 are associated with neuromuscular junction development, and Nmda1 are associated with learning

Data-adaptive harmonic analysis and prediction of sea level change in North Atlantic region

Science.gov (United States)

Kondrashov, D. A.; Chekroun, M.

2017-12-01

This study aims to characterize North Atlantic sea level variability across the temporal and spatial scales. We apply recently developed data-adaptive Harmonic Decomposition (DAH) and Multilayer Stuart-Landau Models (MSLM) stochastic modeling techniques [Chekroun and Kondrashov, 2017] to monthly 1993-2017 dataset of Combined TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2/OSTM altimetry fields over North Atlantic region. The key numerical feature of the DAH relies on the eigendecomposition of a matrix constructed from time-lagged spatial cross-correlations. In particular, eigenmodes form an orthogonal set of oscillating data-adaptive harmonic modes (DAHMs) that come in pairs and in exact phase quadrature for a given temporal frequency. Furthermore, the pairs of data-adaptive harmonic coefficients (DAHCs), obtained by projecting the dataset onto associated DAHMs, can be very efficiently modeled by a universal parametric family of simple nonlinear stochastic models - coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators stacked per frequency, and synchronized across different frequencies by the stochastic forcing. Despite the short record of altimetry dataset, developed DAH-MSLM model provides for skillful prediction of key dynamical and statistical features of sea level variability. References M. D. Chekroun and D. Kondrashov, Data-adaptive harmonic spectra and multilayer Stuart-Landau models. HAL preprint, 2017, https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01537797

Does regional disadvantage affect health-related sport and physical activity level? A multi-level analysis of individual behaviour.

Science.gov (United States)

Wicker, Pamela; Downward, Paul; Lera-López, Fernando

2017-11-01

This study examines the role of regional government quality in health-related participation in sport and physical activity among adults (18-64 years) in 28 European countries. The importance of the analysis rests in the relative autonomy that regional and local governments have over policy decisions connected with sport and physical activity. While existing studies have focussed on economic and infrastructural investment and expenditure, this research investigates the quality of regional governments across 208 regions within 28 European countries. The individual-level data stem from the 2013 Eurobarometer 80.2 (n = 18,675) and were combined with regional-level data from Eurostat. An individual's level of participation in sport and physical activity was measured by three variables reflecting whether an individual's activity level is below, meets, or exceeds the recommendations of the World Health Organization. The results of multi-level analyses reveal that regional government quality has a significant and positive association with individual participation in sport and physical activity at a level meeting or exceeding the guidelines. The impact is much larger than that of regional gross domestic product per capita, indicating that regional disadvantage in terms of political quality is more relevant than being disadvantaged in terms of economic wealth.

Evaluation of uncertainties in regional climate change simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pan, Z.; Christensen, J. H.; Arritt, R. W.

2001-01-01

, an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (GCM) current climate, and a future scenario of transient climate change. Common precipitation climatology features simulated by both models included realistic orographic precipitation, east-west transcontinental gradients, and reasonable annual cycles over...... to different subgrid scale processes in individual models. The ratio of climate change to biases, which we use as one measure of confidence in projected climate changes, is substantially larger than 1 in several seasons and regions while the ratios are always less than 1 in summer. The largest ratios among all...... regions are in California. Spatial correlation coefficients of precipitation were computed between simulation pairs in the 2x3 set. The climate change correlation is highest and the RCM performance correlation is lowest while boundary forcing and intermodel correlations are intermediate. The high spatial...

Tokamak residual zonal flow level in near-separatrix region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bing-Ren, Shi

2010-01-01

Residual zonal flow level is calculated for tokamak plasmas in the near-separatrix region of a diverted tokamak. A recently developed method is used to construct an analytic divertor tokamak configuration. It is shown that the residual zonal flow level becomes smaller but still keeps finite near the separatrix because the neoclassical polarisation mostly due to the trapped particles goes larger in this region. (fluids, plasmas and electric discharges)

Measuring and Assessment the Noise Level in Different Regions in Baghdad City And Compare it with The Allowable Levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ibtihaj Abdulwahhab Abdulrazzak

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This study includes measurement of the noise level of four regions in the city of Baghdad (industrial region, commercial region, residential region and quiet region and compare the value of noise in each region with the World Health Organization (WHO allowable limits, and the effect of noise on human health was explained. The "sound level meter (SLM" instrument measuring the noise value in the four regions, three measurement per month through one year was recorded (one measurement every ten days from 1/1/2015 to 30/12/2015. The noise level of the industrial region (75dB compared with the World Health Organization level allowable limit (65dB, while the commercial region (76.28dB versus (55dB and the residential region (74.94dB versus (50dB and the quiet region was (62.36dB versus (40dB of the (WHO allowable limit.

Leadership and Change in Sustainable Regional Development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sotarauta, M.; Horlings, L.G.; Liddle, J.

2012-01-01

This book shows, first of all, that leadership plays a crucial role in reinventing regions and branching out from an old path to something new in order to create more balanced and sustainable regional development. Second, it maintains that leadership is not a solo but a multi-agent and -level

Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Adger, W Neil; Barnett, Jon; Perry, Allison L; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae

2016-01-01

Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

Investigation of the climate-driven periodicity of shallow groundwater level fluctuations in a Central-Eastern European agricultural region

Science.gov (United States)

Garamhegyi, Tamás; Kovács, József; Pongrácz, Rita; Tanos, Péter; Hatvani, István Gábor

2018-05-01

The distribution and amount of groundwater, a crucial source of Earth's drinking and irrigation water, is changing due to climate-change effects. Therefore, it is important to understand groundwater behavior in extreme scenarios, e.g. drought. Shallow groundwater (SGW) level fluctuation under natural conditions displays periodic behavior, i.e. seasonal variation. Thus, the study aims to investigate (1) the periodic behavior of the SGW level time series of an agriculturally important and drought-sensitive region in Central-Eastern Europe - the Carpathian Basin, in the north-eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain, and (2) its relationship to the European atmospheric pressure action centers. Data from 216 SGW wells were studied using wavelet spectrum analysis and wavelet coherence analyses for 1961-2010. Locally, a clear relationship exists between the absence of annual periodic behavior in the SGW level and the periodicity of droughts, as indicated by the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Aridity Index. During the non-periodic intervals, significant drops in groundwater levels (average 0.5 m) were recorded in 89% of the wells. This result links the meteorological variables to the periodic behavior of SGW, and consequently, drought. On a regional scale, Mediterranean cyclones from the Gulf of Genoa (northwest Italy) were found to be a driving factor in the 8-yr periodic behavior of the SGW wells. The research documents an important link between SGW levels and local/regional climate variables or indices, thereby facilitating the necessary adaptation strategies on national and/or regional scales, as these must take into account the predictions of drought-related climatic conditions.

Impact of glacial/interglacial sea level change on the ocean nitrogen cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Haojia; Sigman, Daniel M.; Martínez-García, Alfredo; Anderson, Robert F.; Chen, Min-Te; Ravelo, Ana Christina; Straub, Marietta; Wong, George T. F.; Haug, Gerald H.

2017-08-01

The continental shelves are the most biologically dynamic regions of the ocean, and they are extensive worldwide, especially in the western North Pacific. Their area has varied dramatically over the glacial/interglacial cycles of the last million years, but the effects of this variation on ocean biological and chemical processes remain poorly understood. Conversion of nitrate to N2 by denitrification in sediments accounts for half or more of the removal of biologically available nitrogen (“fixed N”) from the ocean. The emergence of continental shelves during ice ages and their flooding during interglacials have been hypothesized to drive changes in sedimentary denitrification. Denitrification leads to the occurrence of phosphorus-bearing, N-depleted surface waters, which encourages N2 fixation, the dominant N input to the ocean. An 860,000-y record of foraminifera shell-bound N isotopes from the South China Sea indicates that N2 fixation covaried with sea level. The N2 fixation changes are best explained as a response to changes in regional excess phosphorus supply due to sea level-driven variations in shallow sediment denitrification associated with the cyclic drowning and emergence of the continental shelves. This hypothesis is consistent with a glacial ocean that hosted globally lower rates of fixed N input and loss and a longer residence time for oceanic fixed N—a “sluggish” ocean N budget during ice ages. In addition, this work provides a clear sign of sea level-driven glacial/interglacial oscillations in biogeochemical fluxes at and near the ocean margins, with implications for coastal organisms and ecosystems.

Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Torben Koenigk

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA. The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15°K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur.

MOVES2010a regional level sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-10

This document discusses the sensitivity of various input parameter effects on emission rates using the US Environmental Protection Agencys (EPAs) MOVES2010a model at the regional level. Pollutants included in the study are carbon monoxide (CO),...

A conceptual framework for regional feedbacks in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B.

2012-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems and climate influence each other through biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo, water fluxes) processes. These interactions might be disturbed when a climate human-induced forcing takes place (e.g. deforestation); and the ecosystem responses to the climate system might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial forcing. Research on feedbacks has been mainly based on the carbon cycle at the global scale. However, biogeophysical feedbacks might have a great impact at the local or regional scale, which is the main focus of this article. A conceptual framework, with the major interactions and processes between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, is presented to further explore feedbacks at the regional level. Four hot spots with potential changes in land use/management and climate are selected: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, diverse climate human-induced forcings and feedbacks were identified based on relevant published literature. For Europe, the positive soil moisture-evapotranspiration (ET) is important for natural vegetation during a heat wave event, while the positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback plays a more important role for droughts in the Amazon region. Agricultural expansion in SSA will depend on the impacts of the changing climate on crop yields and the adopted agro-technologies. The adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems might turn the positive soil moisture- ET feedback into a negative one. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia might face water shortage in the future, and thus turning the soil moisture-ET feedback into a positive one. Further research is needed for the major processes that affect the ultimate sign of the feedbacks, as well as for the interactions, which effect remains uncertain, such as ET-precipitation interaction. In addition, socio-economic feedbacks need to be added

Comprehensive comparison of preselected regions for a high level radioactive waste repository: a subjective quantitative evaluation method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ju; Zong Zihua; Jin Yuanxin; Zhu Pengfei; Su Rui; Chen Weiming

2012-01-01

Based on the comprehensive features of the 6 preselected regions (Northwest China, Southwest China East China, South China, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang regions) for China's high level radioactive waste repository, this paper uses the subjective quantitative method to evaluate the weight of each site selection criterion and provides the scores of each region. The results shows that the future natural changes and the hydrogeological conditions are considered as the most important natural siting criteria, while the social impact and human activities are the most important social siting criteria. According to the scores, the priority order of the regions are Northwest China, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, South China, East China, Southwest China. On the whole, the scores of' the regions in western China (Northwest China, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia) are higher than those in eastern China (South China, East China Southwest China), which obviously shows that the participated experts considers that the disposal of high level waste in west China is more favorable than in east China. (authors)

Ellagic Acid-Changed Epigenome of Ribosomal Genes and Condensed RPA194-Positive Regions of Nucleoli in Tumour Cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Legartová, S; Sbardella, G; Kozubek, S; Bártová, E

2015-01-01

We studied the effect of ellagic acid (EA) on the morphology of nucleoli and on the pattern of major proteins of the nucleolus. After EA treatment of HeLa cells, we observed condensation of nucleoli as documented by the pattern of argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions (AgNORs). EA also induced condensation of RPA194-positive nucleolar regions, but no morphological changes were observed in nucleolar compartments positive for UBF1/2 proteins or fibrillarin. Studied morphological changes induced by EA were compared with the morphology of control, non-treated cells and with pronounced condensation of all nucleolar domains caused by actinomycin D (ACT-D) treatment. Similarly as ACT-D, but in a lesser extent, EA induced an increased number of 53BP1-positive DNA lesions. However, the main marker of DNA lesions, γH2AX, was not accumulated in body-like nuclear structures. An increased level of γH2AX was found by immunofluorescence and Western blots only after EA treatment. Intriguingly, the levels of fibrillarin, UBF1/2 and γH2AX were increased at the promoters of ribosomal genes, while 53BP1 and CARM1 levels were decreased by EA treatment at these genomic regions. In the entire genome, EA reduced H3R17 dimethylation. Taken together, ellagic acid is capable of significantly changing the nucleolar morphology and protein levels inside the nucleolus.

Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) Regional Land Cover Data and Change Data

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Dalton, Melinda S.; Jones, Sonya A.

2010-01-01

expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot

Course of sea-level change

Science.gov (United States)

Carlowicz, Michael

This summer, the Environment and Climate Program of the European Union will offer an advanced study course on “sea-level changes on micro to macro timescales: measurements, modeling, interpretation, and application.” The short course will be taught from July 1-12 at the Aesclepon Conference Center on the island of Kos, Greece.The interdisciplinary course is designed to bring together at least 40 students from different disciplines in an attempt to share and disseminate fundamental ideas about sea level change, focusing particularly on changes influenced by anthropogenic factors. Participants will be selected by a scientific panel; the European Union will conduct the course free of charge and will provide free lodging. Students must pay for their own travel expenses and food.

Constructing Perceptions of Climate Change: a case study of regional political decision makers

Science.gov (United States)

Bray, D.

2012-12-01

This case study of climate change communications assesses the salient means of communication and the message adopted by regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast. Realizing that cultural factors and local values (and not simply knowledge) are significant influences in explaining attitudes towards climate change, this analysis draws from the records of regional weather, from scientists with a specific focus on the region, from the political decision makers for that region, and the media message reaching the decision makers, ensuring all elements of the analysis are drawn from the same socioeconomic, geophysical, political and cultural context. This is important as the social dynamics surrounding the trust in science is of critical importance and, as such, all elements of the case study are specifically contained within a common context. If the utility of climate change knowledge is to prompt well conceived adaptation/mitigation strategies then the political decision process, or at least the perceptions shaping it, can best be understood by locating it within the world view of the decision makers involved in the production process. Using the results of two survey questionnaires, one of regional climate scientists and one of regional political decision makers, ten years of local weather records, and a summary of the message from mass media circulation, the discord in perceptions of regional climate change are quantitatively explored. The conclusions drawn from the analysis include, compared to the scientific assessment: The decision makers' perceptions of recent past differ from actual observations. The decision makers' perceptions of the future differ from scientific assessments. The decision makers tend to over estimate the magnitude of regional climate change and its impacts. The decision makers tend to over estimate the sense of immediacy for adaptation measures. The conclusions drawn suggest that in the regional political realm, it is often a

Interpretation of changes in water level accompanying fault creep and implications for earthquake prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Wesson, R.L.

1981-01-01

Quantitative calculations for the effect of a fault creep event on observations of changes in water level in wells provide an approach to the tectonic interpretation of these phenomena. For the pore pressure field associated with an idealized creep event having an exponential displacement versus time curve, an analytic expression has been obtained in terms of exponential-integral functions. The pore pressure versus time curves for observation points near the fault are pulselike; a sharp pressure increase (or decrease, depending on the direction of propagation) is followed by more gradual decay to the normal level after the creep event. The time function of the water level change may be obtained by applying the filter - derived by A.G.Johnson and others to determine the influence of atmospheric pressure on water level - to the analytic pore pressure versus time curves. The resulting water level curves show a fairly rapid increase (or decrease) and then a very gradual return to normal. The results of this analytic model do not reproduce the steplike changes in water level observed by Johnson and others. If the procedure used to obtain the water level from the pore pressure is correct, these results suggest that steplike changes in water level are not produced by smoothly propagating creep events but by creep events that propagate discontinuously, by changes in the bulk properties of the region around the well, or by some other mechanism.-Author

Sea Level Changes: Determination and Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Woodworth, P. L.; Pugh, D. T.; DeRonde, J. G.; Warrick, R. G.; Hannah, J.

The measurement of sea level is of fundamental importance to a wide range of research in climatology, oceanography, geology and geodesy. This volume attempts to cover many aspects of the field. The volume opens with a description by Bolduc and Murty of one of the products stemming from the development of tide gauge networks in the northern and tropical Atlantic. This work is relevant to the growth of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), the main goal of which is to provide the world with an efficient, coherent sea level monitoring system for océanographie and climatological research. The subsequent four papers present results from the analysis of existing tide gauge data, including those datasets available from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and the TOGA Sea Level Center. Two of the four, by Wroblewski and by Pasaric and Orlic, are concerned with European sea level changes, while Yu Jiye et al. discuss inter-annual changes in the Pacific, and Wang Baocan et al. describe variability in the Changjiang estuary in China. The papers by El- Abd and A wad, on Red Sea levels, are the only contributions to the volume from the large research community of geologists concerned with sea level changes.

Prediction of monthly regional groundwater levels through hybrid soft-computing techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Huang, Chien-Wei; Kao, I.-Feng

2016-10-01

Groundwater systems are intrinsically heterogeneous with dynamic temporal-spatial patterns, which cause great difficulty in quantifying their complex processes, while reliable predictions of regional groundwater levels are commonly needed for managing water resources to ensure proper service of water demands within a region. In this study, we proposed a novel and flexible soft-computing technique that could effectively extract the complex high-dimensional input-output patterns of basin-wide groundwater-aquifer systems in an adaptive manner. The soft-computing models combined the Self Organized Map (SOM) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) network for predicting monthly regional groundwater levels based on hydrologic forcing data. The SOM could effectively classify the temporal-spatial patterns of regional groundwater levels, the NARX could accurately predict the mean of regional groundwater levels for adjusting the selected SOM, the Kriging was used to interpolate the predictions of the adjusted SOM into finer grids of locations, and consequently the prediction of a monthly regional groundwater level map could be obtained. The Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan was the study case, and its monthly data sets collected from 203 groundwater stations, 32 rainfall stations and 6 flow stations during 2000 and 2013 were used for modelling purpose. The results demonstrated that the hybrid SOM-NARX model could reliably and suitably predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels with high correlations (R2 > 0.9 in both training and testing cases). The proposed methodology presents a milestone in modelling regional environmental issues and offers an insightful and promising way to predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels, which is beneficial to authorities for sustainable water resources management.

Collaborative Research: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

2017-12-28

This project developed and applied a regional Arctic System model for enhanced decadal predictions. It built on successful research by four of the current PIs with support from the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program, which has resulted in the development of a fully coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) consisting of atmosphere, land-hydrology, ocean and sea ice components. An expanded RACM, a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has been set up to include ice sheets, ice caps, mountain glaciers, and dynamic vegetation to allow investigation of coupled physical processes responsible for decadal-scale climate change and variability in the Arctic. RASM can have high spatial resolution (~4-20 times higher than currently practical in global models) to advance modeling of critical processes and determine the need for their explicit representation in Global Earth System Models (GESMs). The pan-Arctic region is a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification. However, a system-level understanding of critical arctic processes and feedbacks needs further development. Rapid climate change has occurred in a number of Arctic System components during the past few decades, including retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet, acceleration and thinning of outlet glaciers, reduced snow cover, thawing permafrost, and shifts in vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation and heat budget, ecosystems, native communities, natural resource exploration, and commercial transportation. The overarching goal of the RASM project has been to advance understanding of past and present states of arctic climate and to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. To do this the project has focused on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The three foci of this research are: - Changes

Active Ageing Level of Older Persons: Regional Comparison in Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md. Nuruzzaman Haque

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Active ageing level and its discrepancy in different regions (Bangkok, Central, North, Northeast, and South of Thailand have been examined for prioritizing the policy agenda to be implemented. Attempt has been made to test preliminary active ageing models for Thai older persons and hence active ageing index (AAI, ranges from 0 to 1 has been estimated. Using nationally representative data and confirmatory factor analysis approach, this study justified active ageing models for female and male older persons in Thailand. Results revealed that active ageing level of Thai older persons is not high (mean AAIs for female and male older persons are 0.64 and 0.61, resp., and those are significantly different (p<0.001. Mean AAI in Central region is lower than North, Northeast, and South regions but there is no significant difference in the latter three regions of Thailand. Special emphasis should be given to Central region and policy should be undertaken for increasing active ageing level. Implementation of an Integrated Active Ageing Package (IAAP, containing policies for older persons to improve their health and economic security, to promote participation in social groups and longer working lives, and to arrange learning programs, would be helpful for increasing older persons’ active ageing level in Thailand.

TASKS OF INNOVATION PROCESSES PROGRAM-TARGET MANAGEMENT AT REGIONAL LEVEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikhail Shchepakin

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes the regional system of innovation management, discussed the existing problems of program-oriented management of innovative processes at the regional level, as well as possible solutions to improve the efficiency of the regional innovation system.

Effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level on gas hydrate stability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garg, S.K.; Pritchett, W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States)

2008-07-01

Natural gas hydrates occur in oceanic sediments and in permafrost regions around the world. As a greenhouse gas, large amounts of methane released from the global hydrate reservoir would have a significant impact on Earth's climate. The role of methane released by hydrate dissociation in climate change is uncertain. However, changes in global climate such as glaciation and warming can destabilize the hydrates. During the last glacial maximum, the sea level dropped about 100 meters. It has been suggested that the sea-level fall was associated with gas hydrate instability and seafloor slumping. This paper investigated the effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea level on gas hydrate stability and on gas venting at the seafloor. A one-dimensional numerical computer model (simulator) was developed to describe methane hydrate formation, decomposition, reformation, and distribution with depth below the seafloor in the marine environment. The simulator was utilized to model hydrate distributions at two sites, notably Blake Ridge, located offshore South Carolina and Hydrate Ridge, located off the coast of Oregon. The numerical models for the two sites were conditioned by matching the sulfate, chlorinity, and hydrate distribution measurements. The effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level on gas hydrate stability were then investigated. It was concluded that for Blake Ridge, changes in hydrate concentration were small. Both the changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level led to a substantial increase in gas venting at the seafloor for Hydrate Ridge. 17 refs., 8 figs.

FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN REGIONAL ECONOMIES: A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

OpenAIRE

Sudhir K. THAKUR

2011-01-01

Regional economic structure is defined as the composition and patterns of various components of the regional economy such as: produc-tion, employment, consumption, trade, and gross regional product. Structur-al change is conceptualized as the change in relative importance of the aggregate indicators of the economy. The process of regional development and structural change are intertwined, implying as economic development takes place the strength and direction of intersectoral relationships ch...

Impact of climate change on food security in southwest coastal region of bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Islam, S.; Rahman, A.

2014-01-01

This paper examines the impact of climate change on food security of the population residing in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Based on multistage random sampling technique, a survey was conducted to collect socioeconomic and food datasets of the people affected by extreme climate events in the country. The study found that climate change caused food insecurity in the region; it led to greater dependence on pond and rain water for cooking food and water intake. Catastrophe due to extreme weather events adversely affected the livelihoods and level of income. The severe cyclonic storms, Sidr (November 2007) and Alia (May 2009) severely affected the vulnerable people of this region, especially the extremely poor. The study came out with several coping strategies to address adverse effects of climate change, including rehabilitation with income and employment generating activities and development training; alternative livelihood adaptation practices; access to subsidized inputs and credits; introduction of crop calendar; conservation of arable and fellow land; and innovation of saline-tolerant, heat-resistant, moderate water consuming and short-rotation crops for the coastal people. (author)

Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; van Werkhoven, B.J.C.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

2014-01-01

As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect

Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Louisa S Evans

Full Text Available Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

Millennial, centennial and decadal sea- level change in Florida, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Kemp, A.; Hawkes, A. D.; Donnelly, J. P.; Horton, B. P.

2012-12-01

Reconstructions of relative sea-level changes on millennial timescales provide data against which to test and calibrate Earth-Ice models. On the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast they constrain the geometry of the Laurentide Ice Sheet's collapsing forebulge. Sea -level data from southeastern Atlantic coast additionally constrain ice-equivalent meltwater input. Here we produce the first Holocene sea-level curve for Florida and Georgia from the St. Mary's River using agglutinated foraminifera preserved in radiocarbon-dated brackish and salt-marsh sediment. The use of foraminfera as sea-level indicators was underpinned by local and regional datasets describing the modern distribution of assemblages that are analogues for those preserved in buried sediment. This approach produced 25 index points that record 5.2 m of relative sea level rise over the last 8000 years with no evidence of a mid Holocene high stand. These reconstructions indicate that existing GIA models do not replicate proxy reconstructions and that northern Florida is subsiding in response to ongoing forebulge collapse at an estimated rate of approximately 0.3 mm/yr. Over multi decadal time scales, detailed sea level reconstructions provide an appropriate geological context for modern rates of sea-level rise. Reconstructions spanning the last 2000 years of known climate variability are important for developing models with predictive capacity that link climate and sea level changes. A reconstruction of sea-level changes since 2000 years BP was developed using a core of brackish marsh sediment from the Nassau River in Florida. Foraminifera estimated the elevation of former sea level with an uncertainty of ± 10 cm. Consistent downcore assemblages indicate that the marsh maintained its tidal elevation for 2000 years. An age depth model was developed for the core results from radiocarbon dating, 210Pb and 137Cs. The resulting relative sea level record was adjusted for the contribution made by glacio

Regional Climate Modelling of the Western Iberian Low-Level Wind Jet

Science.gov (United States)

Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Semedo, Álvaro

2016-04-01

The Iberian coastal low-level jet (CLLJ) is one the less studied boundary layer wind jet features in the Eastern Boundary Currents Systems (EBCS). These regions are amongst the most productive ocean ecosystems, where the atmosphere-land-ocean feedbacks, which include marine boundary layer clouds, coastal jets, upwelling and inland soil temperature and moisture, play an important role in defining the regional climate along the sub-tropical mid-latitude western coastal areas. Recently, the present climate western Iberian CLLJ properties were extensively described using a high resolution regional climate hindcast simulation. A summer maximum frequency of occurrence above 30% was found, with mean maximum wind speeds around 15 ms-1, between 300 and 400m heights (at the jet core). Since the 1990s the climate change impact on the EBCS is being studied, nevertheless some lack of consensus still persists regarding the evolution of upwelling and other components of the climate system in these areas. However, recently some authors have shown that changes are to be expected concerning the timing, intensity and spatial homogeneity of coastal upwelling and of CLLJs, in response to future warming, especially at higher latitudes, namely in Iberia and Canaries. In this study, the first climate change assessment study regarding the Western Iberian CLLJ, using a high resolution (9km) regional climate simulation, is presented. The properties of this CLLJ are studied and compared using two 30 years simulations: one historical simulation for the 1971-2000 period, and another simulation for future climate, in agreement with the RCP8.5 scenario, for the 2071-2100 period. Robust and consistent changes are found: 1) the hourly frequency of occurrence of the CLLJ is expected to increase in summer along the western Iberian coast, from mean maximum values of around 35% to approximately 50%; 2) the relative increase of the CLLJ frequency of occurrence is higher in the north off western Iberia

Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

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Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

2013-01-01

Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

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Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin; Hawkins, Ed; Jonko, Alexandra; Lowe, Jason A.

2016-12-01

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.

The electoral offer of the Bloque Nacionalista Galego (BNG at the regional level

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Cristina Ares Castro-Conde

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This piece of research analyses the electoral offer of the Bloque Nacionalista Galego (BNG at the regional level since 1982. Changes in its electoral strategy are examined. Particularly, it assesses the effects of movements along both the left-right and the centre-periphery dimensions on the size of its political group as well as on its options to hold office. Light is also shed on the increasing distance between the BNG´s political preferences and the voters’ positions.

Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation

Science.gov (United States)

McKee, K.L.; Cahoon, D.R.; Feller, Ilka C.

2007-01-01

Aim The long-term stability of coastal ecosystems such as mangroves and salt marshes depends upon the maintenance of soil elevations within the intertidal habitat as sea level changes. We examined the rates and processes of peat formation by mangroves of the Caribbean Region to better understand biological controls on habitat stability. Location Mangrove-dominated islands on the Caribbean coasts of Belize, Honduras and Panama were selected as study sites. Methods Biological processes controlling mangrove peat formation were manipulated (in Belize) by the addition of nutrients (nitrogen or phosphorus) to Rhizophora mangle (red mangrove), and the effects on the dynamics of soil elevation were determined over a 3-year period using rod surface elevation tables (RSET) and marker horizons. Peat composition and geological accretion rates were determined at all sites using radiocarbon-dated cores. Results The addition of nutrients to mangroves caused significant changes in rates of mangrove root accumulation, which influenced both the rate and direction of change in elevation. Areas with low root input lost elevation and those with high rates gained elevation. These findings were consistent with peat analyses at multiple Caribbean sites showing that deposits (up to 10 m in depth) were composed primarily of mangrove root matter. Comparison of radiocarbon-dated cores at the study sites with a sea-level curve for the western Atlantic indicated a tight coupling between peat building in Caribbean mangroves and sea-level rise over the Holocene. Main conclusions Mangroves common to the Caribbean region have adjusted to changing sea level mainly through subsurface accumulation of refractory mangrove roots. Without root and other organic inputs, submergence of these tidal forests is inevitable due to peat decomposition, physical compaction and eustatic sea-level rise. These findings have relevance for predicting the effects of sea-level rise and biophysical processes on tropical

Relative impacts of worldwide tropospheric ozone changes and regional emission modifications on European surface-ozone levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szopa, S.; Hauglustaine, D.A.

2007-01-01

Multi-scale models were applied to assess the surface ozone changes in 2030. Several emission scenarios are considered, ranging from (a) a pessimistic anthropogenic emission increase to (b) an optimistic decrease of emissions, and including (c) a realistic scenario that assumes the implementation of control legislations [CLE]. The two extreme scenarios lead respectively to homogeneous global increase and decrease of surface ozone, whereas low and inhomogeneous changes associated with a slight global increase of ozone are found for the CLE scenario. Over western Europe, for the CLE scenario, the benefit of European emission reduction is significantly counterbalanced by increasing global ozone levels. Considering warmer conditions over Europe and future emission modifications, the human health exposure to surface ozone is found to be significantly worsened. (authors)

The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

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L. Guo

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM precipitation to long term changes in regional anthropogenic aerosols (sulphate and black carbon is explored in an atmospheric general circulation model, the atmospheric component of the UK High-Resolution Global Environment Model v1.2 (HiGAM. Separately, sulphur dioxide (SO₂ and black carbon (BC emissions in 1950 and 2000 over East Asia are used to drive model simulations, while emissions are kept constant at year 2000 level outside this region. The response of the EASM is examined by comparing simulations driven by aerosol emissions representative of 1950 and 2000. The aerosol radiative effects are also determined using an off-line radiative transfer model. During June, July and August, the EASM was not significantly changed as either SO₂ or BC emissions increased from 1950 to 2000 levels. However, in September, precipitation is significantly decreased by 26.4% for sulphate aerosol and 14.6% for black carbon when emissions are at the 2000 level. Over 80% of the decrease is attributed to changes in convective precipitation. The cooler land surface temperature over China in September (0.8 °C for sulphate and 0.5 °C for black carbon due to increased aerosols reduces the surface thermal contrast that supports the EASM circulation. However, mechanisms causing the surface temperature decrease in September are different between sulphate and BC experiments. In the sulphate experiment, the sulphate direct and the 1st indirect radiative effects contribute to the surface cooling. In the BC experiment, the BC direct effect is the main driver of the surface cooling, however, a decrease in low cloud cover due to the increased heating by BC absorption partially counteracts the direct effect. This results in a weaker land surface temperature response to BC changes than to sulphate changes. The resulting precipitation response is also weaker, and the responses of the monsoon circulation

Functional MRI neurofeedback training on connectivity between two regions induces long-lasting changes in intrinsic functional network

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Fukuda eMegumi

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Motor or perceptual learning is known to influence functional connectivity between brain regions and induce short-term changes in the intrinsic functional networks revealed as correlations in slow blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD signal fluctuations. However, no cause-and-effect relationship has been elucidated between a specific change in connectivity and a long-term change in global networks. Here, we examine the hypothesis that functional connectivity (i.e. temporal correlation between two regions is increased and preserved for a long time when two regions are simultaneously activated or deactivated. Using the connectivity-neurofeedback training paradigm, subjects successfully learned to increase the correlation of activity between the lateral parietal and primary motor areas, regions that belong to different intrinsic networks and negatively correlated before training under the resting conditions. Furthermore, whole-brain hypothesis-free analysis as well as functional network analyses demonstrated that the correlation in the resting state between these areas as well as the correlation between the intrinsic networks that include the areas increased for at least two months. These findings indicate that the connectivity-neurofeedback training can cause long-term changes in intrinsic connectivity and that intrinsic networks can be shaped by experience-driven modulation of regional correlation.

Climate Variability and Change in the Mediterranean Region

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Lionello, Piero; Özsoy, Emin; Planton, Serge; Zanchetta, Giovanni

2017-04-01

This special issue collects new research results on the climate of the Mediterranean region. It covers traditional topics of the MedCLIVAR programme (www.medclivar.eu, Lionello et al. 2006, Lionello et al. 2012b) being devoted to papers addressing on-going and future climate changes in the Mediterranean region and their impacts on its environment.

Assessment of U.S. firm-level climate change performance and strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Yu; Wang, Derek D.; Li, Shanling; Shi, Qinfen

2016-01-01

Climate change is becoming an increasingly critical concern for human society. While there has been a great deal of research on climate change performance at the country/region level, our research focuses on the study of firm-level environmental efficiency as a proxy for firms' climate change management. Using a unique data set on U.S. S&P 500 firms for the period 2012–2013 and DEA slack-based models, we obtain firms' environmental efficiencies in six sectors. The results show significant performance dispersions both across and within the sectors. We highlight each sector's pros and cons in the environmental performance and propose guidelines for policy makers to further improve climate change performance. We also evaluate firms' operational performance and propose a unified performance measure by integrating operational and environmental efficiencies. Overall, we find there is no significant relationship between operational and environmental efficiencies in any of the six industrial sectors under study. The unified performance measures are more driven by the environmental efficiency than the operational efficiency. - Highlights: •U.S. firms have large variations in climate performance across/within the sectors. •Relationship between operational and climate performances is not significant. •The operational and climate performances can be captured in a unified measure.

Regional level approach for increasing energy efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viholainen, Juha; Luoranen, Mika; Väisänen, Sanni; Niskanen, Antti; Horttanainen, Mika; Soukka, Risto

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Comprehensive snapshot of regional energy system for decision makers. • Connecting regional sustainability targets and energy planning. • Involving local players in energy planning. - Abstract: Actions for increasing the renewable share in the energy supply and improving both production and end-use energy efficiency are often built into the regional level sustainability targets. Because of this, many local stakeholders such as local governments, energy producers and distributors, industry, and public and private sector operators require information on the current state and development aspects of the regional energy efficiency. The drawback is that an overall view on the focal energy system operators, their energy interests, and future energy service needs in the region is often not available for the stakeholders. To support the local energy planning and management of the regional energy services, an approach for increasing the regional energy efficiency is being introduced. The presented approach can be seen as a solid framework for gathering the required data for energy efficiency analysis and also evaluating the energy system development, planned improvement actions, and the required energy services at the region. This study defines the theoretical structure of the energy efficiency approach and the required steps for revealing such energy system improvement actions that support the regional energy plan. To demonstrate the use of the approach, a case study of a Finnish small-town of Lohja is presented. In the case example, possible actions linked to the regional energy targets were evaluated with energy efficiency analysis. The results of the case example are system specific, but the conducted study can be seen as a justified example of generating easily attainable and transparent information on the impacts of different improvement actions on the regional energy system.

An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Legeais, Jean-Francois; Ablain, Michael; Zawadzki, Lionel

2018-01-01

, the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed...... to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010-2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015). During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter...

Climate change and fire management in the mid-Atlantic region

Science.gov (United States)

Kenneth L. Clark; Nicholas Skowronski; Heidi Renninger; Robert. Scheller

2014-01-01

In this review, we summarize the potential impacts of climate change on wildfire activity in the mid-Atlantic region, and then consider how the beneficial uses of prescribed fire could conflict with mitigation needs for climate change, focusing on patters of carbon (C) sequestration by forests in the region. We use a synthesis of field studies, eddy flux tower...

Improvement of global and regional mean sea level derived from satellite altimetry multi missions

Science.gov (United States)

Ablain, M.; Faugere, Y.; Larnicol, G.; Picot, N.; Cazenave, A.; Benveniste, J.

2012-04-01

With the satellite altimetry missions, the global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993. 'Verification' phases, during which the satellites follow each other in close succession (Topex/Poseidon--Jason-1, then Jason-1--Jason-2), help to link up these different missions by precisely determining any bias between them. Envisat, ERS-1 and ERS-2 are also used, after being adjusted on these reference missions, in order to compute Mean Sea Level at high latitudes (higher than 66°N and S), and also to improve spatial resolution by combining all these missions together. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 provide a global rate of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from + 8 mm/yr to - 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend unceratainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in the frame of the SALP project (supported by CNES) and Sea-level Climate Change Initiative project (supported by ESA), strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections

Interannual water-level fluctuations and the vegetation of prairie potholes: Potential impacts of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

van der Valk, Arnold; Mushet, David M.

2016-01-01

Mean water depth and range of interannual water-level fluctuations over wet-dry cycles in precipitation are major drivers of vegetation zone formation in North American prairie potholes. We used harmonic hydrological models, which require only mean interannual water depth and amplitude of water-level fluctuations over a wet–dry cycle, to examine how the vegetation zones in a pothole would respond to small changes in water depth and/or amplitude of water-level fluctuations. Field data from wetlands in Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and South Dakota were used to parameterize harmonic models for four pothole classes. Six scenarios in which small negative or positive changes in either mean water depth, amplitude of interannual fluctuations, or both, were modeled to predict if they would affect the number of zones in each wetland class. The results indicated that, in some cases, even small changes in mean water depth when coupled with a small change in amplitude of water-level fluctuations can shift a prairie pothole wetland from one class to another. Our results suggest that climate change could alter the relative proportion of different wetland classes in the prairie pothole region.

Drivers of Change in a 7300-Year Holocene Diatom Record from the Hemi-Boreal Region of Ontario, Canada.

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Kristen K Beck

Full Text Available A Holocene lake sediment record spanning the past 7300 years from Wishart Lake in the Turkey Lakes Watershed in the Hemi-Boreal of central Ontario, Canada, was used to evaluate the potential drivers of long-term change in diatom assemblages at this site. An analysis of diatom assemblages found that benthic and epiphytic taxa dominated the mid-Holocene (7300-4000 cal yr BP, indicating shallow, oligotrophic, circum-neutral conditions, with macrophytes present. A significant shift in diatom assemblages towards more planktonic species (mainly Cyclotella sensu lato, but also several species of Aulacoseira, and Tabellaria flocculosa occurred ~4000 cal yr BP. This change likely reflects an increase in lake level, coincident with the onset of a more strongly positive moisture balance following the drier climates of the middle Holocene, established by numerous regional paleoclimate records. Pollen-inferred regional changes in vegetation around 4000 yrs BP, including an increase in Betula and other mesic taxa, may have also promoted changes in diatom assemblages through watershed processes mediated by the chemistry of runoff. A more recent significant change in limnological conditions is marked by further increases in Cyclotella sensu lato beginning in the late 19th century, synchronous with the Ambrosia pollen rise and increases in sediment bulk density, signaling regional and local land clearance at the time of Euro-Canadian settlement (1880 AD. In contrast to the mid-Holocene increase in planktonic diatoms, the modern increase in Cyclotella sensu lato likely indicates a response to land use and vegetation change, and erosion from the watershed, rather than a further increase in water level. The results from Wishart Lake illustrate the close connection between paleoclimate change, regional vegetation, watershed processes, and diatom assemblages and also provides insight into the controls on abundance of Cyclotella sensu lato, a diatom taxonomic group

On the Topological Changes of Local Hurst Exponent in Polar Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Consolini, G.; De Michelis, P.

2014-12-01

Geomagnetic activity during magnetic substorms and storms is related to the dinamical and topological changes of the current systems flowing in the Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere. This is particularly true in the case of polar regions where the enhancement of auroral electrojet current system is responsible for the observed geomagnetic perturbations. Here, using the DMA-technique we evaluate the local Hurst exponent (H"older exponent) for a set of 46 geomagnetic observatories, widely distributed in the northern hemisphere, during one of the most famous and strong geomagnetic storm, the Bastille event, and reconstruct a sequence of polar maps showing the dinamical changes of the topology of the local Hurst exponent with the geomagnetic activity level. The topological evolution of local Hurst exponent maps is discussed in relation to the dinamical changes of the current systems flowing in the polar ionosphere. G. Consolini has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant agreement no. 313038/STORM for this research.

The increased atmospheric greenhouse effect and regional climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Groenaas, S. [Bergen Univ. (Norway)

1996-03-01

This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The main information for predicting future climate changes comes from integrating coupled climate models of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Regional climate change may be studied from the global integrations, however, resolution is coarse because of insufficient computer power. Attempts are being made to get more regional details out of the global integrations by ``downscaling`` the latter. This can be done in two ways. Firstly, limited area models with high resolution are applied, driven by the global results as boundary values. Secondly, statistical relationships have been found between observed meteorological parameters, like temperature and precipitation, and analyzed large scale gridded fields. The derived relations are then used on similar data from climate runs to give local interpretations. A review is given of literature on recent observations of climate variations and on predicted regional climate change. 18 refs., 4 figs.

Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Martha Marie; Orth, René; Cheruy, Frederique; Hagemann, Stefan; Lorenz, Ruth; van den Hurk, Bart; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

2017-04-01

Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multi-model experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate physical processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America and between 42%-52% in Amazonia, Northern Australia and Southern Africa. Soil moisture trends (multi-decadal soil moisture variability) are more important for this response than short-term (e.g. seasonal, interannual) soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections. Vogel, M.M. et al.,2017. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

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A. Mondal

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Simulation of regional temperature change effect of land cover change in agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Tingxiang; Zhang, Shuwen; Yu, Lingxue; Bu, Kun; Yang, Jiuchun; Chang, Liping

2017-05-01

The Northeast China is one of typical regions experiencing intensive human activities within short time worldwide. Particularly, as the significant changes of agriculture land and forest, typical characteristics of pattern and process of agroforestry ecotone change formed in recent decades. The intensive land use change of agroforestry ecotone has made significant change for regional land cover, which had significant impact on the regional climate system elements and the interactions among them. This paper took agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China as study region and simulated temperature change based on land cover change from 1950s to 1978 and from 1978 to 2010. The analysis of temperature difference sensitivity to land cover change based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model showed that the land cover change from 1950s to 1978 induced warming effect over all the study area, including the change of grassland to agriculture land, grassland to deciduous broad-leaved forest, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to shrub land. The land cover change from 1978 to 2010 induced cooling effect over all the study area, including the change of deciduous broad-leaved forest to agriculture land, grassland to agriculture land, shrub land to agriculture land, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to grassland. In addition, the warming and cooling effect of land cover change was more significant in the region scale than specific land cover change area.

Ambient noise levels and characterization in Aegean region, Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Sevim, Fatih; Zor, Ekrem; Açıkgöz, Cem; Tarancıoğlu, Adil

2018-03-01

We assessed the ambient noise level in the Aegean region and analyzed its diurnal variation and its relation to the earthquake detection capability of the Aegean Region Seismic Network (ARSN). We prepared probability density functions (PDFs) for 19 broadband stations in the Aegean region operated by the Earth and Marine Sciences Institute (EMSI) of the Marmara Research Center (MRC) of the Turkish Scientific Research Council (TÜBİTAK). The power spectral densities (PSDs) used to construct PDFs for each station were computed for the periods between 0.02 and 180 s. In addition, we generated noise map of the Aegean region for different periods using the PDFs to assess the origin of the noise. We analyzed earthquake activity in the region and found that there are more local events recorded at night than during the day for each station. This difference is strongly related to diurnal variation of background noise level for the period range mostly covering the frequency range for the local events. We observed daytime noise level 15 to 20 dB higher than that at the nighttime in high frequencies for almost all stations caused by its proximity to settled areas and roads. Additionally, we observed a splitting peak within the Double Frequency (DF) microseism band; it showed a clear noise increase around the short period DF band at all the stations, decreasing inland. This peak may be related to sea waves locally generated in the Aegean Sea. We also identified a prominent increase related to marble saw companies in some stations' noise PDFs.

Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

2002-12-01

There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

Scalability of regional climate change in Europe for high-end scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, O. B.; Yang, S.; Boberg, F.

2015-01-01

With the help of a simulation using the global circulation model (GCM) EC-Earth, downscaled over Europe with the regional model DMI-HIRHAM5 at a 25 km grid point distance, we investigated regional climate change corresponding to 6°C of global warming to investigate whether regional climate change...... are close to the RCP8.5 emission scenario. We investigated the extent to which pattern scaling holds, i.e. the approximation that the amplitude of any climate change will be approximately proportional to the amount of global warming. We address this question through a comparison of climate change results...... from downscaling simulations over the same integration domain, but for different driving and regional models and scenarios, mostly from the EU ENSEMBLES project. For almost all quantities investigated, pattern scaling seemed to apply to the 6° simulation. This indicates that the single 6° simulation...

On the Application of an Enthalpy Method to the Evolution of Fluvial Deltas Under Sea-Level Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, W.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Voller, V. R.

2017-12-01

Fluvial deltas are composites of two primary sedimentary environments: a depositional fluvial region and an offshore region. The fluvial region is defined by two geomorphic moving boundaries: an alluvial-bedrock transition (ABT), which separates the sediment prism from the non-erodible bedrock basement, and the shoreline (SH), where the delta meets the ocean. The trajectories of these boundaries in time and space define the evolution of the shape of the sedimentary prism, and are often used as stratigraphic indicators, particularly in seismic studies, of changes in relative sea level and the identification of stratigraphic sequences. In order to better understand the relative role of sea-level variations, tectonics, and sediment supply on the evolution of these boundaries, we develop a forward stratigraphic model that captures the dynamic behavior of the fluvial surface and treats the SH and ABT as moving boundaries (i.e., internal boundaries whose location must be determined as part of the solution to the overall morphological evolution problem). This forward model extends a numerical technique from heat transfer (i.e., enthalpy method), previously applied to the evolution of sedimentary basins, to account for sea-level changes. The mathematics of the approach are verified by comparing predictions from the numerical model with both existing and newly developed closed form analytical solutions. Model results support previous work, which suggests that the migration of the ABT can respond very differently to the sea-level signal. This response depends on factors such as sediment supply and delta length, which can vary greatly between basins. These results can have important implications for the reconstruction of past sea-level changes from the stratigraphic record of sedimentary basins.

Assessing Changes in Precipitation and Impacts on Groundwater in Southeastern Brazil using Regional Hydroclimate Reconstruction

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, A.; Fernandes, M.; Silva, G. C., Jr.

2017-12-01

Aquifers can be key players in regional water resources. Precipitation infiltration is the most relevant process in recharging the aquifers. In that regard, understanding precipitation changes and impacts on the hydrological cycle helps in the assessment of groundwater availability from the aquifers. Regional modeling systems can provide precipitation, near-surface air temperature, together with soil moisture at different ground levels from coupled land-surface schemes. More accurate those variables are better the evaluation of the precipitation impact on the groundwater. Downscaling of global reanalysis very often employs regional modeling systems, in order to give more detailed information for impact assessment studies at regional scales. In particular, the regional modeling system, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), might improve the accuracy of hydrometeorological variables in regions with spatial and temporal scarcity of in-situ observations. SRDAS combines assimilation of precipitation estimates from gauge-corrected satellite-based products with spectral nudging technique. The SRDAS hourly outputs provide monthly means of atmospheric and land-surface variables, including precipitation, used in the calculations of the hydrological budget terms. Results show the impact of changes in precipitation on groundwater in the aquifer located near the southeastern coastline of Brazil, through the assessment of the water-cycle terms, using a hydrological model during dry and rainy periods found in the 15-year numerical integration of SRDAS.

Decadal trends in deep ocean salinity and regional effects on steric sea level

Science.gov (United States)

Purkey, S. G.; Llovel, W.

2017-12-01

We present deep (below 2000 m) and abyssal (below 4000 m) global ocean salinity trends from the 1990s through the 2010s and assess the role of deep salinity in local and global sea level budgets. Deep salinity trends are assessed using all deep basins with available full-depth, high-quality hydrographic section data that have been occupied two or more times since the 1980s through either the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Hydrographic Program or the Global Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP). All salinity data is calibrated to standard seawater and any intercruise offsets applied. While the global mean deep halosteric contribution to sea level rise is close to zero (-0.017 +/- 0.023 mm/yr below 4000 m), there is a large regional variability with the southern deep basins becoming fresher and northern deep basins becoming more saline. This meridional gradient in the deep salinity trend reflects different mechanisms driving the deep salinity variability. The deep Southern Ocean is freshening owing to a recent increased flux of freshwater to the deep ocean. Outside of the Southern Ocean, the deep salinity and temperature changes are tied to isopycnal heave associated with a falling of deep isopycnals in recent decades. Therefore, regions of the ocean with a deep salinity minimum are experiencing both a halosteric contraction with a thermosteric expansion. While the thermosteric expansion is larger in most cases, in some regions the halosteric compensates for as much as 50% of the deep thermal expansion, making a significant contribution to local sea level rise budgets.

Regional cerebral metabolic changes after acupuncture by FDG PET: Effects and methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guan, Y.H.; Zuo, C.T.; Zhao, J.; Lin, X.T.; Li, J.; Dong, J.C.

2002-01-01

patients had manifested greater response in their lesions than their normal regions of the two tested groups after acupuncture treatment, the heighten range is 14%-40%. The normal regions of the cerebrovascular ischemia patients groups show similar changes with the normal groups after acupuncture. The cerebrovascular ischemic patients had manifested greater response in their lesions than in their normal regions after acupuncture treatment. Conclusions: The study of One-day method after acupuncture using FDG PET was established. Our study showed that the regulatory effects of acupuncture on the central nervous system influence the brain at multiple-sections, multiple-directions and multiple-levels of brain function. However, a greater change was observed at the lesions of the cerebrovascular ischemic patients and similar changes at the other normal regions under the same PET protocol, this conforms to the holistic and bi-directions regulatory laws of acupuncture. In this study, the therapeutic effects of acupuncture was relied on nervous system

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

2013-11-01

The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate more control over their future development pathways, even if these countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the European region, the population living in water

A relationship between regional and global GCM surface air temperature changes and its application to an integrated model of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonas, M.; Ganopolski, A.V.; Krabec, J.; Olendrzyski, K.; Petoukhov, V.K.

1994-01-01

This study outlines the advantages of combining the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse affect (IMAGE, an integrated quick turnaround, global model of climate change) with a spatially detailed General Circulation Model (GCM), in this case developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) in Hamburg. The outcome is a modified IMAGE model that simulates the MPI GCM projections of annual surface air temperature change globally and regionally. IMAGE thus provides policy analysts with integrated and regional information about global warming for a great range of policy-dependent greenhouse gas emission or concentration scenarios, while preserving its quick turnaround time. With the help of IMAGE various regional temperature response simulations have been produced. None of these simulations has yet been performed by any GCM. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming. In this study the authors deal only with a simplified subsystem of such an integrated model of climate change, which begins with policy options, neglects the societal component in the greenhouse gas accounting tool, and ends with temperature change as the only output of the climate model. The model the authors employ is the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE, version 1.0), which was developed by the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM). IMAGE is a scientifically based, parameterized simulation policy model designed to calculate the historical and future effects of greenhouse gases on global surface and surface air temperatures and sea-level rise

Regional climate change scenarios for México

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez-Salvador, Begoña; Sánchez, O.; Gay, C.

In this paper we present the regional climate change scenarios that were used for the assessment of the potential impacts in México on agriculture, livestock, forestry, hydrological resources as well as on human settlements and biodiversity. Those studies were developed for the Fourth Communication

High-spin states in 136La and possible structure change in the N =79 region

Science.gov (United States)

Nishibata, H.; Leguillon, R.; Odahara, A.; Shimoda, T.; Petrache, C. M.; Ito, Y.; Takatsu, J.; Tajiri, K.; Hamatani, N.; Yokoyama, R.; Ideguchi, E.; Watanabe, H.; Wakabayashi, Y.; Yoshinaga, K.; Suzuki, T.; Nishimura, S.; Beaumel, D.; Lehaut, G.; Guinet, D.; Desesquelles, P.; Curien, D.; Higashiyama, K.; Yoshinaga, N.

2015-05-01

High-spin states in the odd-odd nucleus 136La, which is located close to the β -stability line, have been investigated in the radioactive-beam-induced fusion-evaporation reaction 124Sn(17N,5 n ). The use of the radioactive beam enabled a highly sensitive and successful search for a new isomer [14+,T1 /2=187 (27 ) ns] in 136La. In the A =130 -140 mass region, no such long-lived isomer has been observed at high spin in odd-odd nuclei. The 136La level scheme was revised, incorporating the 14+ isomer and six new levels. The results were compared with pair-truncated shell model (PTSM) calculations which successfully explain the level structure of the π h11 /2⊗ν h11/2 -1 bands in 132La and 134La. The isomerism of the 14+ state was investigated also by a collective model, the cranked Nilsson-Strutinsky (CNS) model, which explains various high-spin structures in the medium-heavy mass region. It is suggested that a new type of collective structure is induced in the PTSM model by the increase of the number of π g7 /2 pairs, and/or in the CNS model by the configuration change associated with the shape change in 136La.

Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-05-01

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.

Effect of Technology Driven Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Hydroclimate

Science.gov (United States)

Arritt, R. W.; Sines, T. R.; Groisman, P. Y.; Gelder, B. K.

2017-12-01

During the mid-20th century motorized equipment replaced work animals in the central U.S. This led to a 95% decrease in farmland for producing oats, which had mostly been used as feed for horses. Much of this land was converted to more profitable crops such as soybeans and maize. The same period also saw a strong shift of the central U.S. precipitation intensity spectrum toward heavier events. Was this a coincidence, or is there a causal relationship? We investigate possible connections between this technology-driven land use change and regional hydroclimate by performing multi-decadal simulations over the central U.S. using the WRF-ARW regional climate model coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM 4.5). Cropland planted in maize, soybean, winter wheat, small grains (which includes oats and spring wheat), and other C3 and C4 crops were reconstructed on a decade by decade basis from 1940-2010 using county-level crop data. These crop distributions were used as land surface boundary conditions for two multi-decadal regional climate simulations, one with 1940s land use and another with modern (circa 2010) land use. Modern land use produced a shift in the simulated daily precipitation intensity spectrum toward heavy events, with higher frequencies of heavy precipitation amounts and lower frequencies of light amounts compared to 1940s land use. The results suggest that replacement of work animals by mechanized transport led to land use changes that produced about 10-30% of the observed trend toward more intense precipitation over the central United States. We therefore recommend that policy- and technology-driven changes in crop type be taken into account when projecting future climate and water resources.

Regional scenarios of future climate change over southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Tadross, M

2011-11-01

Full Text Available In this chapter, the authors provide projections of regional climate change so that decision-makers can better understand the nature of the projected changes, and how to take this into account when formulating and implementing adaptive strategies....

Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

2011-12-01

Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little

Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F.; Hagemann, S.; Lorenz, R.; Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-02-01

Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multimodel experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of the hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America. Soil moisture trends are more important for this response than short-term soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections.

Changes in X-ray brightness of a solar active region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glencross, W M; Brabban, D H [University Coll., London (UK). Mullard Space Science Lab.

1976-04-01

The soft X-ray flux in the waveband 0.3 to 0.9 nm has been monitored during most of the solar disk passage of McMath region 12094. These data show how the emission changed during quiet periods as well as during flaring. Throughout the first four days of observations the mean flux showed a gradual decay even though the magnetic region was still growing. At the end of this phase the region remained extremely inactive for almost half a day and then brightened by more than an order of magnitude within an hour. This enhancement lasted nearly one day and marked the onset of the break-up of the region. It is shown how this sequence of events might reflect the changes in subphotospheric convection pattern which Meyer et al (Mon. Not. R. Astr. Soc.; 169:35 (1974)) consider to develop in magnetic regions. It is also pointed out that the large flares in region 11976 during early 1972 August had a number of characteristics in common with the active phase discussed for region 12094.

Differentiation regional climate impact indicators at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels

Science.gov (United States)

Schleussner, C. F.

2016-12-01

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. By establishing 1.5°C as the long term temperature limit for global average temperature increase and inviting a special report of the IPCC on the impacts of 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement has put such assessments high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here I will present recent findings of climate impacts at 1.5°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. In particular, I will present findings from a recent study that attempts to differentiate between such impacts at warming levels of 1.5°¸C and 2°C above pre-industrial (Schleussner et al., 2016). By analyzing changes in indicators for 26 world regions as applicable, the study found regional dependent differences between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Regional hot-spots of change emerge with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impacts of an additional 0.5°C warming. These findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. Building on that analysis, I will discuss limitations of existing approaches to differentiate between warming levels and outline opportunities for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327-351 (2016).

Monitoring Vertical Crustal Deformation and Gravity Variations during Water Level Changes at the Three Gorges Reservoir

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

WANG Wei

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Monitoring vertical crustal deformation and gravity changes during water level changes at the Three Gorges reservoir is important for the safe operation of the Three Gorges Dam and for the monitoring and prevention of a regional geological disaster. In this study, we determined vertical crustal deformation and gravity changes during water level variations of the Three Gorges reservoir from direct calculations and actual measurements and a comprehensive solution. We used water areas extracted image data from the ZY-3 satellite and water level data to calculate gravity changes and vertical crustal deformation caused by every 5 m change in the water level due to storage and drainage of the Three Gorges reservoir from 145 m to 175 m. The vertical crustal deformation was up to 30 mm. The location of gravity change above 20 μ Gal(1 Gal=10-2 m/s2 was less than 2 km from the centerline of the Yangtze River. The CORS ES13 in Badong, near the reservoir, measured the vertical crustal deformation during water level changes. Because of the small number of CORS and gravity stations in the Three Gorges reservoir area, monitoring deformation and gravity related to changes in the Three Gorges reservoir water level cannot be closely followed. Using 26 CORS and some of the gravity stations in the Three Gorges area and based on loading deformation and the spherical harmonic analysis method, an integrated solution of vertical deformation and gravity variations during water level changes of the reservoir was determined, which is consistent with the actual CORS monitoring results. By comparison, we found that an integrated solution based on a CORS network can effectively enhance the capability of monitoring vertical crustal deformation and gravity changes during water level variations of the reservoir.

SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MICRO-LEVEL MODELLING OF LAND USE CHANGE AT THE RURAL-URBAN INTERFACE. (R828012)

Science.gov (United States)

This paper describes micro-economic models of land use change applicable to the rural–urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro-level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate...

Holocene sea-level changes in King George Island, West Antarctica, by virtue of geomorphological coastal evidences and diatom assemblages of sediment sections.

Science.gov (United States)

Poleshchuk, Ksenia; Verkulich, Sergey; Pushina, Zina; Jozhikov, Ilya

2015-04-01

A new curve of relative sea-level change is presented for the Fildes peninsula, King George Island, West Antarctic. This work is based on renewed paleogeography data, including coastal geomorphological evidence, diatom assemblages of lakes bottom sediments and radiocarbon datings of organics. The new data were obtained in several sections of quaternary sediments and groups of terraces, and allows us to expand and improve relevant conception about relative sea level changes in the King George Island region. The new radiocarbon datings of organics (mosses and shells) allows reconstructing Holocene conditions that maintain and cause the sea-level changes. Sea diatom assemblages of Dlinnoye lake bottom sediment core (that complies period about 8000 years B.P.) mark altitude of marine water penetrated into the lake. The altitudes of shell remains, which have certain life habits and expect specific salinity and depth conditions, coupled with their absolute datings, indicate the probable elevation of the past sea level. The Mid-Holocene marine transgression reached its maximum level of 18-20 m by 5760 years B.P. The transgression influenced the deglaciation of the Fildes peninsula and environment conditions integrally. The ratio of glacio-isostatic adjustment velocity and Holocene transgression leaded to the decrease of relative sea level during the Late Holocene excluding the short period of rising between 2000 and 1300 years B.P. Comparing this data with the curve for Bunger oasis, East Antarctica, introduced earlier gives an interesting result. Despite the maximum altitudes of relative sea-level rise in King George region were higher and occurred later than in Bunger oasis region, the short-term period of Late Holocene sea-level rising contemporizes. Besides that, this work allow to realize a correlation between regions of Antarctica and adjacent territory. That, in turn, lets answer the question of tectonic and eustatic factors ratio and their contribution to the

Holocene climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon region

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wenxiang; Niu, Jie; Ming, Qingzhong; Shi, Zhengtao; Lei, Guoliang; Huang, Linpei; Long, Xian'e.; Chang, Fengqin

2018-05-01

Climatic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon (ASWM) during the Holocene have become a topic of recent studies. It is important to understand the patterns and causes of Holocene climatic changes and their relationship with global changes. Based on the climate proxies and wavelet analysis of Lugu Lake in the ASWM region, the climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the ASWM region during the Holocene have been reconstructed with a high-precision chronology. The results indicate the intensification of ASWM began to increase with Northern Hemisphere low-latitude solar insolation (LSI) and solar activity during the early Holocene, and gradually decreased during the late Holocene, exhibiting an apparent synchrony with numerous records of ASWM region. Meanwhile, an apparent 1000-a quasi-periodic signal is present in the environment proxies, and it demonstrates that the environmental change in the ASWM region has been driven mainly by LSI and solar activity.

Regional Climate Modeling and Remote Sensing to Characterize Impacts of Civil War Driven Land Use Change on Regional Hydrology and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.

2016-12-01

Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are extensive enough. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from an extended civil conflict in Mozambique. Civil war from 1977-1992 in Mozambique led to land use change at a regional scale as a result of the collapse of large herbivore populations due to poaching. Since the war ended, farming has increased, poaching was curtailed, and animal populations were reintroduced. In this study LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is classified at three instances between 1977 to 2015 using Landsat imagery. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from conflict-driven land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the civil war. Analysis of the Landsat data shows measurable land cover change from 1977-present as tree cover encroached into grasslands. Initial tests show corresponding sensitivities to different LULC schemes within the WRF model. Preliminary results suggest that the war did indeed impact regional hydroclimate in a significant way via its direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions. Results of this study suggest that LULC change arising from regional conflicts are a potentially understudied, yet important human process to capture in both regional reanalyses and climate change projections.

Investigating the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise in the Galveston Bay, Texas region

Science.gov (United States)

Subedee, M.; Dotson, M.; Gibeaut, J. C.

2016-02-01

Anthropogenic effects throughout the twenty-first century, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, have contributed to global climatic and environmental changes. Sea level rise (SLR) is one of these changes which is occurring along the Texas Coast and is amplified by land subsidence. SLR along the northern Texas coast is impacting sensitive coastal environments as well as human populations, and industries and infrastructure supporting those populations. Sea level data from the NOAA gauge at Galveston Pier 21 has shown an increase of 2.08 feet in relative sea level in 100 years. Given an expected increase in the rate of sea level rise in the next decades, the purpose of this study is to provide an in-depth assessment on the effects of relative sea level rise on the habitat distribution of highly valuable coastal wetlands in the Galveston Bay region. This study also focuses on projecting the potential socioeconomic losses due to coastal flooding that is amplified by SLR in the region. In this study, three SLR scenarios are modeled: a scenario based on a linear extrapolation of satellite altimetry data (0.21 m by 2100); the IPCC's RCP8.5 mean scenario (0.74 m by 2100); and a high-end scenario (1.8 m by 2100) as proposed by Jevrejeva et al. (2014). A land subsidence rate calculated by developing a subsidence grid using GPS-measured subsidence monitoring and releveling data is added to all these scenarios. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to predict wetland conversion due to long-term SLR incorporating the processes of inundation, erosion, accretion, overwash, and saturation. Similarly, HAZUS-MH is used to evaluate the property damage to building stocks and the direct business interruption losses due to flooding caused by 100-year flood event scenario with three SLR scenarios. This coordinated research effort to assess the physical, environmental and policy impacts due to SLR is intended to enable policy-makers, managers, and the general public to

A Regional Observatory for Producers' Climate Change Adaptation ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2016-04-22

Apr 22, 2016 ... A Regional Observatory for Producers' Climate Change Adaptation in Thies, Senegal ... The Adaptation Insights series is a joint publication of the International Development Research Centre and the Centre for ... Innovation.

An assessment of ground-level ozone concentrations in the Athabasca oil sands region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

Syncrude and Suncor have plans to develop new oil sands leases and to increase crude oil and bitumen recovery in the Athabasca oil sands region. A first air quality assessment was prepared as part of the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board application, in order to evaluate the emissions and potential impacts associated with the development. The Pembina Institute raised several issues with respect to potential future changes in ambient ozone levels as a result of the Aurora Mine operations. In response to these concerns, another more rigorous assessment was conducted to predict future ground-level ozone concentrations in the Fort McMurray area. This report includes: (1) ambient air quality guidelines for ozone, (2) emissions inventory for dispersion modelling, (3) dispersion modelling methodology, and (4) predicted ambient ozone concentrations. Ground level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations result from anthropogenically produced ozone, and from naturally occurring ozone. Ozone is not directly emitted to the atmosphere from industrial sources, but is formed as a result of chemical reactions between NO x and VOCs, which are emitted from industrial sources within the Athabasca oil sands region. NO x and VOC emissions associated with the Aurora Mine operation are predicted to increase hourly average ozone concentrations in the Fort McMurray area by only 0.001 ppm. 17 refs., 18 tabs., 5 figs

Climate Change Adaptation Tools at the Community Level: An Integrated Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elvis Modikela Nkoana

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The negative impacts of climate change are experienced at the global, regional and local levels. However, rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa face additional socio-political, cultural and economic challenges in addition to climate change. Decision support tools have been developed and applied to assist rural communities to cope with and adapt to climate change. However, poorly planned participatory processes and the lack of context-specific approaches in these tools are obstacles when aiming at strengthening the resilience of these rural communities. This paper uses an integrated literature review to identify best practices for involving rural communities in climate change adaptation efforts through the application of context-specific and culturally-sensitive climate change adaptation tools. These best practices include the use of a livelihoods approach to engage communities; the explicit acknowledgement of the local cultural do’s and don’ts; the recognition of local champions appointed from within the local community; the identification and prioritisation of vulnerable stakeholders; and the implementation of a two-way climate change risk communication instead of a one-sided information sharing approach.

Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fridolin Simon. Brand

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global change. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis to develop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to context scenarios developed at the global and Swiss levels via an external consistency analysis. This method allows the coupling of both the scenario building process and the scenarios as such. We used a functional-dynamic approach to theory-practice cooperation, i.e., the involvement of key stakeholders from, for example, tourism, forestry, and administration, differed in type and intensity during the steps of the research process. In our study, we experienced strong problem awareness among the stakeholders concerning the impacts of global change and local challenges. The guiding research question was commonly defined and problem ownership was more or less balanced. We arrived at six multiscale scenarios that open up future trajectories for the Visp region, and present generic strategies to cope with global and local challenges. The results show that local identity, spatial planning, community budget, and demographic development are important steering elements in the region's future development. We suggest that method-guided transdisciplinary processes result in a richer picture and a more systemic understanding, which enable a discussion of critical and surprising issues.

[Changes of regional environment quality pattern in China since 1986-2008].

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Wei-Hua; Sun, Ming-Kun; Lu, Yu-Qi

2011-03-01

For further study of regional differences and the pattern of changes in environmental quality in China since 1986-2008, we perform the principal component analysis, standard deviation, Mann-Kendall and cluster analysis on 18 environmental quality indexes in 28 provinces of China in this paper. Those indexes refer to pollutant emission, pollutants treatment capacities and pollutant emission of per unit land area, etc. The paper indicates that regional environmental quality in China has been increased slightly during this period. It can be divided into four stages: 1986-2000, 2000-2001, 2001-2005 and 2005-2008. The overall patterns of regional environmental quality is the West is higher than the East in general, while the environmental quality of the eastern part have been changed somewhat. For more details, the regional environmental quality in China in 1986 is composed of two parts, the eastern part and the western part, while in 2000 and 2001 the eastern part, the middle part and the western part appears as the overall pattern. For the year of 2005, the regional environmental quality in the western is higher than that of the eastern; meanwhile, the eastern can be divided into the northern part, the middle part and the southern part, and the environmental quality in northern part is better than that of the southern part, southern part is better than that of the middle part. This pattern hardly changed in 2008, except that the area with poor environment quality region had expanded. Pollutant emission of per unit land area played as a main factor; yet both the pollutant emission and the reuse of pollutants impacted the pattern specifically. In addition, the national macro policies, the regional policies, the regional economic and the industrial structure can be primary reason for the change of regional environmental quality pattern in China as well.

The Scandinavian regional model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Torfing, Jacob; Lidström, Anders; Røiseland, Asbjørn

2015-01-01

This article maps how the sub-national regional levels of governance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden have changed from a high degree of institutional convergence to a pattern of institutional divergence. It analyses the similarities and differences in the changes in regional governance and discusses...

Assessment of watershed regionalization for the land use change parameterization

Science.gov (United States)

Randusová, Beata; Kohnová, Silvia; Studvová, Zuzana; Marková, Romana; Nosko, Radovan

2016-04-01

The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Floods and other natural hazards initiated by climate, soil, and land use changes are highly important in the 21st century. Flood risks and design flood estimation is particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. To obtain the design values in such cases where no recorded data exist, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites. The SCS-CN method is an empirical rainfall-runoff model developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS). The runoff curve number (CN) is based on the hydrological soil characteristics, land use, land management and antecedent saturation conditions of soil. This study is focused on development of the SCS-CN methodology for the changing land use conditions in Slovak basins (with the pilot site of the Myjava catchment), which regionalize actual state of land use data and actual rainfall and discharge measurements of the selected river basins. In this study the state of the water erosion and sediment transport along with a subsequent proposal of erosion control measures was analyzed as well. The regionalized SCS-CN method was subsequently used for assessing the effectiveness of this control measure to reduce runoff from the selected basin. For the determination of the sediment transport from the control measure to the Myjava basin, the SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio) model was used.

Pulse number control of electrical resistance for multi-level storage based on phase change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakayama, K; Takata, M; Kasai, T; Kitagawa, A; Akita, J

2007-01-01

Phase change nonvolatile memory devices composed of SeSbTe chalcogenide semiconductor thin film were fabricated. The resistivity of the SeSbTe system was investigated to apply to multi-level data storage. The chalcogenide semiconductor acts as a programmable resistor that has a large dynamic range. The resistance of the chalcogenide semiconductor can be set to intermediate resistances between the amorphous and crystalline states using electric pulses of a specified power, and it can be controlled by repetition of the electric pulses. The size of the memory cell used in this work is 200 nm thick with a contact area of 1 μm diameter. The resistance of the chalcogenide semiconductor gradually varies from 41 kΩ to 840 Ω within octal steps. The resistance of the chalcogenide semiconductor decreases with increasing number of applied pulses. The step-down characteristic of the resistance can be explained as the crystalline region of the active phase change region increases with increasing number of applied pulses. The extent of crystallization was also estimated by the overall resistivity of the active region of the memory cell

Sensitivity of GRACE-derived estimates of groundwater-level changes in southern Ontario, Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Hachborn, Ellen; Berg, Aaron; Levison, Jana; Ambadan, Jaison Thomas

2017-12-01

Amidst changing climates, understanding the world's water resources is of increasing importance. In Ontario, Canada, low water conditions are currently assessed using only precipitation and watershed-based stream gauges by the Conservation Authorities in Ontario and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Regional groundwater-storage changes in Ontario are not currently measured using satellite data by research institutes. In this study, contributions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are compared to a hydrogeological database covering southern Ontario from 2003 to 2013, to determine the suitability of GRACE total water storage estimates for monitoring groundwater storage in this location. Terrestrial water storage data from GRACE were used to determine monthly groundwater storage (GWS) anomaly values. GWS values were also determined by multiplying groundwater-level elevations (from the Provincial Groundwater Monitoring Network wells) by specific yield. Comparisons of GRACE-derived GWS to well-based GWS data determined that GRACE is sufficiently sensitive to obtain a meaningful signal in southern Ontario. Results show that GWS values produced by GRACE are useful for identifying regional changes in groundwater storage in areas with limited available hydrogeological characterization data. Results also indicate that GRACE may have an ability to forecast changes in groundwater storage, which will become useful when monitoring climate shifts in the near future.

High resolution mapping of modafinil induced changes in glutamate level in rat brain.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Haris

Full Text Available Modafinil is marketed in the United States for the treatment of narcolepsy and daytime somnolence due to shift-work or sleep apnea. Investigations of this drug in the treatment of cocaine and nicotine dependence in addition to disorders of executive function are also underway. Modafinil has been known to increase glutamate levels in rat brain models. Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1HMRS has been commonly used to detect the glutamate (Glu changes in vivo. In this study, we used a recently described glutamate chemical exchange saturation transfer (GluCEST imaging technique to measure Modafinil induced regional Glu changes in rat brain and compared the results with Glu concentration measured by single voxel 1HMRS. No increases in either GluCEST maps or 1HMRS were observed after Modafinil injection over a period of 5 hours. However, a significant increase in GluCEST (19 ± 4.4% was observed 24 hours post Modafinil administration, which is consistent with results from previous biochemical studies. This change was not consistently seen with 1HMRS. GluCEST mapping allows regional cerebral Glu changes to be measured and may provide a useful clinical biomarker of Modafinil effects for the management of patients with sleep disorders and addiction.

Regional contributions of ocean iron fertilization to atmospheric CO2 changes during the last glacial termination

Science.gov (United States)

Opazo, N. E.; Lambert, F.

2017-12-01

Mineral dust aerosols affect climate directly by changing the radiative balance of the Earth, and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and by affecting biogeochemical cycles. The impact on marine biogeochemical cycles is primarily through the supply of micronutrients such as iron to nutrient-limited regions of the oceans. Iron fertilization of High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) regions of the oceans is thought to have significantly affected the carbon cycle on glacial-interglacial scales and contributed about one fourth of the 80-100 ppm lowering of glacial atmospheric CO2 concentrations.In this study, we quantify the effect of global dust fluxes on atmospheric CO2 using the cGENIE model, an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity with emphasis on the carbon cycle. Global Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) dust flux fields were obtained from both dust model simulations and reconstructions based on observational data. The analysis was performed in two stages. In the first instance, we produced 8 global intermediate dust flux fields between Holocene and LGM and simulated the atmospheric CO2 drawdown due to these 10 dust levels. In the second stage, we only changed dust flux levels in specific HNLC regions to isolate the effect of these ocean basins. We thus quantify the contribution of the South Atlantic, the South Pacific, the North Pacific, and the Central Pacific HNLC regions to the total atmospheric CO2 difference due to iron fertilization of the Earth's oceans.

Absolute sea levels and isostatic changes of the eastern North Sea to central Baltic region during the last 900 years

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Jens Morten; Aagaard, Troels; Binderup, Merete

2012-01-01

that ice-cap growth can be faster than ice-cap melting. By comparison with 29 long-term tide gauge measurements of the region we show that the isostatic implications of the sea-level curve are in nearly perfect agreement with Peltier's global isostatic VM2 model (applied by IPCC and PSMSL) and yield a 3...

Carniola oživljena: Changing Practice in Citing Slovenian Regions in English Texts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donald F. Reindl

2010-05-01

Full Text Available The past century has witnessed a striking change in the representation of Slovenia’s traditional regions in English texts. After the Second World War, Slovenians progressively replaced the traditional English exonyms for these regions with endonyms in English texts. This trend was accompanied by published works and teaching practice that increasingly insisted on the exclusive use of endonyms in English texts. However, following the dissolution of Yugoslavia and Slovenian independence, there has been a return to the traditional English exonyms. This article maps this changing practice through selected English texts from the past three centuries. It also addresses a number of pitfalls connected with the use of endonyms as well as persistent questions regarding the use of endonyms. Because English is a global language, the choices made by those writing in English directly affect how Slovenia and Slovenian identity are represented at the global level. As such, the conclusions of this paper apply directly to Slovenian-English translation practice and indirectly to Slovenian literature and culture conveyed through English translation.

Regional economic change in Europe: a neo-Schumpeterian vision

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hospers, Gerrit J.

2004-01-01

In this era of ongoing globalization a coherent vision on Europe's changing geo-economy is more important than ever before. Drawing on the work of Schumpeter, Fourastié and Perroux, the book at hand offers a new and policy-oriented perspective on regional economic change in Europe.Conceptually, it

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network.

Science.gov (United States)

Osland, Michael J; Griffith, Kereen T; Larriviere, Jack C; Feher, Laura C; Cahoon, Donald R; Enwright, Nicholas M; Oster, David A; Tirpak, John M; Woodrey, Mark S; Collini, Renee C; Baustian, Joseph J; Breithaupt, Joshua L; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A; Donoghue, Joseph F; Graham, Sean A; Harper, Jennifer W; Hester, Mark W; Howard, Rebecca J; Krauss, Ken W; Kroes, Daniel E; Lane, Robert R; McKee, Karen L; Mendelssohn, Irving A; Middleton, Beth A; Moon, Jena A; Piazza, Sarai C; Rankin, Nicole M; Sklar, Fred H; Steyer, Greg D; Swanson, Kathleen M; Swarzenski, Christopher M; Vervaeke, William C; Willis, Jonathan M; Wilson, K Van

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana's network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used

Determinants of anti-corruption activities at the regional level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. I. Ovchinnikova

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The article explores the concept of corruption, defined as an obstacle to economic and social development, created by representatives of the power structures of the country, region, enterprise, weakening the efficiency of management and the institutional foundation of society. Anticorruption activity is presented in the article as conditions created by the state and ensuring that the country's economy is not irreparably damaged by internal and external economic threats. The estimated characteristics of the anti-corruption activities of the regions and the country as a whole, as a rule, are studied in the domestic sources and among foreign authors. Statistical evaluation of the relationship between the level of corruption and indicators: the dynamics of GRP growth, the index of real incomes of the population, the costs of training, health care is made on the basis of the coefficient Pearson correlation. Based on the correlation analysis, stable links were established between the level of corruption and the socio-economic indicators of the region's development: an increase in the level of corruption associated with an increase in the population's spending on education and medicine; a reduction in the level of corruption, as a result of increased incomes of the population and higher wages. The consequences of corruption are presented: legal (the undeveloped legislative base, which involves bribery of powerful people, the growth of corruption in the society, the increase in corruption crimes, the inefficiency of the regulatory framework, social (moral violation, low public evaluation of the activities of power structures, low level of culture and upbringing , economic (bias financial, investment decisions, illegal distribution of property and non-property benefits, the impossibility of competitors Vat with developed countries and others.

Monitoring and Analysing Land Use/Cover Changes in an Arid Region Based on Multi-Satellite Data: The Kashgar Region, Northwest China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayisulitan Maimaitiaili

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In arid regions, oases ecosystems are fragile and sensitive to climate change, and water is the major limiting factor for environmental and socio-economic developments. Understanding the drivers of land use/cover change (LUCC in arid regions is important for the development of management strategies to improve or prevent environmental deterioration and loss of natural resources. The Kashgar Region is the key research area in this study; it is a typical mountain-alluvial plain-oasis-desert ecosystem in an arid region, and is one of the largest oases in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China. In addition, the Kashgar Region is an important cotton and grain production area. This study’s main objectives are to quantify predominant LUCCs and identify their driving forces, based on the integration of multiple remote sensors and applications of environmental and socio-economic data. Results showed that LUCCs have been significant in the Kashgar Region during the last 42 years. Cultivated land and urban/built-up lands were the most changed land cover (LC, by 3.6% and 0.4% from 1972 to 10.2% and 3% in 2014, respectively. By contrast, water and forest areas declined. Grassland and snow-covered areas have fluctuated along with climate and human activities. Bare land was changed slightly from 1972 to 2014. According to the land use transfer matrix, cultivated land replaced grass- and forestland. Urban/built-up land mainly expanded over cultivated and bare land. LUCCs were triggered by the interplay of natural and social drivers. Increasing runoff, caused by regional climate changes in seasonal variation, and snow melt water, have provided water resources for LC changes. In the same way, population growth, changes in land tenure, and socio-economic development also induced LUCCs. However, expansion of cultivated land and urban/built-up land led to increased water consumption and stressed fragile water systems during on-going climate changes. Therefore

Image and Substance Failures in Regional Organisations: Causes, Consequences, Learning and Change?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Hsuan Chou

2016-08-01

Full Text Available States often pool their sovereignty, capacity and resources to provide regionally specific public goods, such as security or trade rules, and regional organisations play important roles in international relations as institutions that attempt to secure peace and contribute to achieving other similar global policy goals. We observe failures occurring in these arrangements and activities in two areas: substance and image. To analytically account for this, we distinguish four modes of substance and image change and link these to specific types of failure and (lack of learning. To empirically ground and test our assumptions, we examine instances of image failure in ASEAN (political/security policy and substantive policy failure in EU labour migration policy. In so doing, this article contributes to several different fields of study and concepts that have hitherto rarely engaged with one another: analyses of policy failure from public policy, and regional integration concerns from area studies and international relations. We conclude with suggestions for ways forward to further analyse and understand failures at the international and supranational levels.

Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

2015-05-01

The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Study of the relationship between the development level and degree of income inequality in the Russian regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marina Yuryevna Malkina

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The subject of this article is the types of relationship between economic development and degree of income inequality in the regions of the Russian Federation. Research methods: testing the modified Kuznets hypothesis; relative deflating of regional parameters; calculating the differentiation and localization coefficients; constructing the Lorentz curves; correlation and regression analysis. Obtained results: 1 for Russian regions author discovered significant direct statistical relationship between the Gini and funds coefficients and the level of real per capita income with increasing returns, as well as less strong direct relationship between coefficients of differentiation mentioned above and the real GDP per capita with diminishing returns; 2 the “social wellbeing” coefficient is proposed and calculated for the regions, which based on localization index of real per capita income relative to the differentiation coefficient, and 3 the degree of interregional disparities in the Russian Federation is evaluated on the basis of the Gini coefficient, coefficient of variation and relative entropy for the nominal and real income and GRP per capita, and Lorenz curves for them are constructed. In this paper, author concluded: 1 presently the level of economic development of the Russian Federation regions negatively affects their income equality due to most of them are on the ascending branch of the S. Kuznets curve, 2 “social welfare” coefficient changes the positions of the middle-income regions more, than that of other regions, and 3 two factors have a positive impact on reducing the regional disparities: more ratio of total personal income to GRP in poor regions relative to rich ones (i.e. greater “social orientation” of poor regions, and positive correlation between income and the cost of living in the regions. The obtained results can be used by researchers in further testing the modified Kuznets hypothesis, as well as by local

The ATLAS high level trigger region of interest builder

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blair, R.; Dawson, J.; Drake, G.; Haberichter, W.; Schlereth, J.; Zhang, J.; Ermoline, Y.; Pope, B.; Aboline, M.; High Energy Physics; Michigan State Univ.

2008-01-01

This article describes the design, testing and production of the ATLAS Region of Interest Builder (RoIB). This device acts as an interface between the Level 1 trigger and the high level trigger (HLT) farm for the ATLAS LHC detector. It distributes all of the Level 1 data for a subset of events to a small number of (16 or less) individual commodity processors. These processors in turn provide this information to the HLT. This allows the HLT to use the Level 1 information to narrow data requests to areas of the detector where Level 1 has identified interesting objects

Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlein, P.J.; Edwards, M.E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Shafer, Sarah; Anderson, P.M.; Brubaker, L. B; Lozhkin, A. V

2015-01-01

Arctic land-cover changes induced by recent global climate change (e.g., expansion of woody vegetation into tundra and effects of permafrost degradation) are expected to generate further feedbacks to the climate system. Past changes can be used to assess our understanding of feedback mechanisms through a combination of process modeling and paleo-observations. The subcontinental region of Beringia (northeastern Siberia, Alaska, and northwestern Canada) was largely ice-free at the peak of deglacial warming and experienced both major vegetation change and loss of permafrost when many arctic regions were still ice covered. The evolution of Beringian climate at this time was largely driven by global features, such as the amplified seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere insolation and changes in global ice volume and atmospheric composition, but changes in regional land-surface controls, such as the widespread development of thaw lakes, the replacement of tundra by deciduous forest or woodland, and the flooding of the Bering–Chukchi land bridge, were probably also important. We examined the sensitivity of Beringia's early Holocene climate to these regional-scale controls using a regional climate model (RegCM). Lateral and oceanic boundary conditions were provided by global climate simulations conducted using the GENESIS V2.01 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a mixed-layer ocean. We carried out two present-day simulations of regional climate – one with modern and one with 11 ka geography – plus another simulation for 6 ka. In addition, we performed five ~ 11 ka climate simulations, each driven by the same global AGCM boundary conditions: (i) 11 ka Control, which represents conditions just prior to the major transitions (exposed land bridge, no thaw lakes or wetlands, widespread tundra vegetation), (ii) sea-level rise, which employed present-day continental outlines, (iii) vegetation change, with deciduous needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf boreal

The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

1998-01-01

.... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2017-12-01

Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin; Hawkins, Ed; Jonko, Alexandra; Lowe, Jason A.

2016-01-01

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally. PMID:27922014

Managing Change in the Holding Company as a Factor in Solving Strategic Problems of the Region

Science.gov (United States)

Krivtsov, Artem I.; Polinova, Ludmila V.; Chupina, Irina P.

2016-01-01

The relevance of the investigated problem is caused by the necessity of changes in holding company's management systems to address the strategic problems of the region. The purpose of the study is to develop a method of forming teams at the corporate level for the coordination and implementation of programs for the implementation of reforms and…

Uncovering China’s transport CO2 emission patterns at the regional level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Bin; Geng, Yong; Franke, Bernd; Hao, Han; Liu, Yaxuan; Chiu, Anthony

2014-01-01

With China’s rapid economic development, its transport sector has experienced a dramatic growth, leading to a large amount of related CO 2 emission. This paper aims to uncover China’s transport CO 2 emission patterns at the regional and provincial level. We first present the CO 2 emission features from transport sector in 30 Chinese provinces, including per capita emissions, emission intensities, and historical evolution of annual CO 2 emission. We then quantify the related driving forces by adopting both period-wise and time-series LMDI analysis. Results indicate that significant regional CO 2 emission disparities exist in China’s transport sector. The eastern region had higher total CO 2 emissions and per capita CO 2 emissions, but lower CO 2 emission intensities in its transport sector. The western region had higher CO 2 emission intensities and experienced a rapid CO 2 emission increase. The CO 2 emission increments in the eastern provinces were mainly contributed by both economic activity effect and population effect, while energy intensity partially offset the emission growth and energy structure had a marginal effect. However, in the central and western provinces, both economic activity effect and energy intensity effect induced the CO 2 emission increases, while the effects from population and energy structure change were limited. - Highlights: • The CO 2 emission features from transport sector in 30 Chinese provinces were presented. • The driving forces of CO 2 emissions from transport sector were quantified. • Regional disparities on China’s transport sector CO 2 emission exist. • Region-specific mitigation policies on transport sector CO 2 emission are needed

A see-saw of pre-Columbian boom regions in southern Peru, determined by large-scale circulation changes

Science.gov (United States)

Mächtle, B.; Schittek, K.; Forbriger, M.; Schäbitz, F.; Eitel, B.

2012-04-01

Environmental changes and cultural transitions during several periods of Peruvian history show a strong coincidence between humid and dry climatic oscillations and the rise and decline of cultures. It is noteworthy, that alternating periods of geo-ecological fragility and stability occurred in time and space between the coastal Nasca region (14.5° S) and the high Andean northern Titicaca basin, just a few hundred kilometers to the east. Based on a multi-proxy palynological and sedimentological approach to reconstruct palaeoenvironmental changes, we found that the Nasca region received a maximum of precipitation during the archaeological boom times of the Early Horizon and the Early Intermediate Period (800 BC - 650 AD, Paracas and Nasca cultures) as well as during the late intermediate period (1150-1450 AD), whereas, in contrast, the Titicaca region further to the south-east experienced drought and cultural depression during that times. During the Middle Horizon (650 - 1150 AD), the Tiwanaku agronomy and culture boomed in the Titicaca region and expanded to the west, contemporaneous with a raised lake level and more humid conditions. In the Nasca region, runoff for irrigation purposes was reduced and less reliable due to drought. Considering a coincidence between environmental and cultural changes, we state that success and decline of civilizations were controlled by hydrological oscillations, triggering fertility as well as a critical loss of natural resources. In response to spatial changing resources, cultural foci were shifted. Therefore, the success of pre-Columbian civilizations was closely coupled to areas of geo-ecological favorability, which were directly controlled by distinct regional impacts of large-scale circulation mechanisms, including El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Bolivian anticyclone determined meridional shifts in moisture transport across the Andes, which

Change of direction ability test differentiates higher level and lower level soccer referees

Science.gov (United States)

Los, Arcos A; Grande, I; Casajús, JA

2016-01-01

This report examines the agility and level of acceleration capacity of Spanish soccer referees and investigates the possible differences between field referees of different categories. The speed test consisted of 3 maximum acceleration stretches of 15 metres. The change of direction ability (CODA) test used in this study was a modification of the Modified Agility Test (MAT). The study included a sample of 41 Spanish soccer field referees from the Navarre Committee of Soccer Referees divided into two groups: i) the higher level group (G1, n = 20): 2ndA, 2ndB and 3rd division referees from the Spanish National Soccer League (28.43 ± 1.39 years); and ii) the lower level group (G2, n = 21): Navarre Provincial League soccer referees (29.54 ± 1.87 years). Significant differences were found with respect to the CODA between G1 (5.72 ± 0.13 s) and G2 (6.06 ± 0.30 s), while no differences were encountered between groups in acceleration ability. No significant correlations were obtained in G1 between agility and the capacity to accelerate. Significant correlations were found between sprint and agility times in the G2 and in the total group. The results of this study showed that agility can be used as a discriminating factor for differentiating between national and regional field referees; however, no observable differences were found over the 5 and 15 m sprint tests. PMID:27274111

Regional cerebral blood flow changes in patients with internet addiction: Authors' reply.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Guobing; Shi, Hongcheng

2016-01-01

To the comments of Prof. Andreas Otte to our work we reply as follows: As was mentioned by Prof. Andreas Otte, our study was the first study of regional cerebral blood flow changes in patients with internet addiction. Therefore, there was not much previous, established experience to refer to. As an exploration study, it was inevitable that there were some insufficiencies. We feel great appreciation to Prof. Andreas Otte for his comments on our work, which will improve our studying quality in this field in the future. Prof. Andreas Otte inquired in his letter how the regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) was calculated, and was scaled, relatively to the whole brain mean value or to the cerebellar mean value. All rCBF data were scaled relatively to the whole brain, in our study. As for the question in relation to the test level, the P-value of 0.05 was only used when comparing intergroup differences of baseline or clinical information of patients using SPSS, while the P-value of 0.01 was used for the statistical parametric mapping (SPM) t-test. We had tried using the test level of Pfalse-positive results. However, in order to control false-positive errors, we performed intragroup comparisons from rest to adenosine-stressed status firstly by paired t test to identify cerebral regions with obvious rCBF changes because of administration of adenosine. On the basis of these cerebral regions, we subsequently performed a two-sample t test to compare intergroup differences to identify cerebral regions with rCBF that could have attributed to internet addiction. We believed that this "twostep" statistical mode might reduce the probability of falsepositive results to some extent. As for the cluster question in relation to SPM analysis, it seems more problematic and more prone for clusterwise inference to produce false-positive results than voxelwise inference, as mentioned in the paper by Eklund et al (2016). We did not take the two-way ANOVA analysis, instead, we performed the

Effects of different types of anaesthesia (regional vs general) on serum IL-6, IL-8 and M-CSF levels in surgical patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao Jiawang

2009-01-01

Objective: To study the effect of anesthesia(regional vs general) on serum IL-6, IL-8 and M-CSF levels in surgical patients. Methods: Serum IL-6, IL-8 and M-CSF levels were determined with RIA 3 times in 34 patients operated under ragional anesthesia and 34 patients operted under general anesthesia (both for benign gastral ulcer). The levels were measured before induction of anesthesia, at beginning of operation and 1 hr later. Results: In patients under regional anesthesia, the IL-6, IL-8 and M-CSF levels increased significantly at the beginning of operation and 1 hr later. Though dropped remained significantly higher than the levels before induction (P<0.05); No significant change of the levels were obsorved in patients under general anesthesia through the operation, and the levels were as a whole significantly lower than the levels under regional anesthesia (P<0.05). Conclusion: General anesthesia (combined intravenous and inhalation) could abolish increases of serum IL-6, IL-8 and M-CSF levels during operation must be of clinical values. (authors)

Water Balance and Level Change of Lake Babati, Tanzania: Sensitivity to Hydroclimatic Forcings

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René P. Mbanguka

2016-12-01

Full Text Available We develop and present a novel integrated water balance model that accounts for lake water—groundwater interactions, and apply it to the semi-closed freshwater Lake Babati system, Northern Tanzania, East Africa. The model was calibrated and used to evaluate the lake level sensitivity to changes in key hydro-climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and cloudiness. The lake response to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5 output on possible future climate outcomes was evaluated, an essential basis in understanding future water security and flooding risk in the region. Results show high lake level sensitivity to cloudiness. Increased focus on cloud fraction measurement and interpretation could likely improve projections of lake levels and surface water availability. Modelled divergent results on the future (21st century development of Lake Babati can be explained by the precipitation output variability of CMIP5 models being comparable to the precipitation change needed to drive the water balance model from lake dry-out to overflow; this condition is likely shared with many other East African lake systems. The developed methodology could be useful in investigations on change-driving processes in complex climate—drainage basin—lake systems, which are needed to support sustainable water resource planning in data scarce tropical Africa.

Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States—A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Wolfe, William J.

2016-08-11

In the southeastern United States, insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies and barrens—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, incorporating factors such as soil surface temperature, widely fluctuating hydrologic conditions, fires, flood scouring, and episodic droughts that may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous localized, site-level investigations have yielded important information about the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems; however, the literature from these investigations has generally remained fragmented. This report consists of literature syntheses for eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, concerning (1) physical geography, (2) ecological determinants of community structures including vegetation dynamics and regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, (3) contributions to regional and global biodiversity, (4) historical and current anthropogenic threats and conservation approaches, and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. This regional synthesis was undertaken to discern patterns across ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for future analyses of climate-change vulnerability. Findings from this synthesis indicate that, despite their importance to regional and global biodiversity, insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a variety of direct and indirect human alterations. In many cases, important questions remain concerning key determinants of ecosystem function. In particular, few

A synthesis of regional climate change simulations - A Scandinavian perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, J. H.; Räinsänen, J.; Iversen, T.

2001-01-01

Four downscaling experiments of regional climate change for the Nordic countries have been conducted with three different regional climate models (RCMs). A short synthesis of the outcome of the suite of experiments is presented as an ensemble, reflecting the different driving atmosphere-ocean...... general circulation model (AOGCM) conditions, RCM model resolution and domain size, and choice of emission scenarios. This allows the sources of uncertainties in the projections to be assessed. At the same time analysis of the climate change signal for temperature and precipitation over the period 1990......-2050 reveals strong similarities. In particular, all experiments in the suite simulate changes in the precipitation distribution towards a higher frequency of heavy precipitation....

Regional Disparities in Education Attainment Level in the European Union: A Spatial Approach

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Chocholatá Michaela

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This article deals with the analysis of education attainment level across the 252 NUTS 2 regions of the European Union (EU with consideration of the spatial aspect. Since the individual EU regions cannot be seen as isolated, the main aim of this article is to assess the impact of location on the education attainment level (percentage of population aged 25–64 with at least upper secondary education during the period 2007–2015, as well as to investigate the impact of regional growth 2014/2007 on the education attainment level in 2015. The spatial analysis proved the existence of positive spatial autocorrelation and persistence of disparities in education attainment level across EU regions during the analysed period. The results of econometric analysis confirmed the expected positive impact of economic growth on education attainment level as well as the necessity to incorporate the spatial dimension into the model.

Changes in Rongbuk lake and Imja lake in the Everest region of Himalaya

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Chen, W.; Doko, T.; Liu, C.; Ichinose, T.; Fukui, H.; Feng, Q.; Gou, P.

2014-12-01

The Himalaya holds the world record in terms of range and elevation. It is one of the most extensively glacierized regions in the world except the Polar Regions. The Himalaya is a region sensitive to climate change. Changes in the glacial regime are indicators of global climate changes. Since the second half of the last century, most Himalayan glaciers have melted due to climate change. These changes directly affected the changes of glacial lakes in the Himalayan region due to the glacier retreat. New glacial lakes are formed, and a number of them have expanded in the Everest region of the Himalayas. This paper focuses on the two glacial lakes which are Imja Lake, located at the southern slope, and Rongbuk Lake, located at the northern slope in the Mt. Everest region, Himalaya to present the spatio-temporal changes from 1976 to 2008. Topographical conditions between two lakes were different (Kruskal-Wallis test, p < 0.05). Rongbuk Lake was located at 623 m higher than Imja Lake, and radiation of Rongbuk Lake was higher than the Imja Lake. Although size of Imja Lake was larger than the Rongbuk Lake in 2008, the growth speed of Rongbuk Lake was accelerating since 2000 and exceeds Imja Lake in 2000-2008. This trend of expansion of Rongbuk Lake is anticipated to be continued in the 21st century. Rongbuk Lake would be the biggest potential risk of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) at the Everest region of Himalaya in the future.

Sea-level change and demography during the last glacial termination and early Holocene across the Australian continent

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Alan N.; Ulm, Sean; Sapienza, Tom; Lewis, Stephen; Turney, Chris S. M.

2018-02-01

Future changes in sea-level are projected to have significant environmental and social impacts, but we have limited understanding of comparable rates of change in the past. Using comprehensive palaeoenvironmental and archaeological datasets, we report the first quantitative model of the timing, spatial extent and pace of sea-level change in the Sahul region between 35-8 ka, and explore its effects on hunter-gatherer populations. Results show that the continental landmass (excluding New Guinea) increased to 9.80 million km2 during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), before a reduction of 2.12 million km2 (or ∼21.6%) to the early Holocene (8 ka). Almost 90% of this inundation occurs during and immediately following Meltwater Pulse (MWP) 1a between 14.6 and 8 ka. The location of coastlines changed on average by 139 km between the LGM and early Holocene, with some areas >300 km, and at a rate of up to 23.7 m per year (∼0.6 km land lost every 25-year generation). Spatially, inundation was highly variable, with greatest impacts across the northern half of Australia, while large parts of the east, south and west coastal margins were relatively unaffected. Hunter-gatherer populations remained low throughout (hypothesis that late Pleistocene coastal populations were low, with use of coastal resources embedded in broad-ranging foraging strategies, and which would have been severely disrupted in some regions and at some time periods by sea-level change outpacing tolerances of mangals and other near-shore ecological communities.

Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

2015-04-01

Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

MANAGEMENT OF INNOVATION IN HEALTH CARE AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL

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Ye. G. Totskaya

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The paper reviews topical issues of organization and management of innovative activity in the regional health care system.Objective. Development and scientific substantiation of a conceptual model of managing innovation in the regional health care system, introduction of institutional mechanisms for its implementation, and evaluation of their efficacy in using diagnosis and treatment technologies. Objectives of the study included reviewing the organization status and problems hampering the development, identification of prospects, and justification for appropriate changes in innovation in healthcare system and medical science at the regional level.Material and methods. To conduct a comprehensive assessment of the status and meet challenges of innovation promotion, a methodology for social-hygienic research was worked out including bibliographic and analytical methods, situational analysis, sociological and economic methods, expert assessment, methods for quality management system audit in accordance with ISO 19011:2002, IDEFO function modeling (RD IDEF0-2000, and organizational modeling. The study was based on the analysis of foreign and domestic literature, statistics, methods for managerial modeling, as well as management experience (including innovative methodological approaches gained by Novosibirsk Research Institute of Traumatology and Orthopedics named after Ya.L. Tsivyan which meets the requirements for a platform for research and innovative product reproduction, including research, clinical, organizational, and managerial aspects. Other facilities were considered in conjunction with the leading innovative platform.Results. The paper presents a scientifically based model of innovative medical environment with its elements as subjects, each with a set of functions. Conceptual model for management includes structuring (resource, processes, and quality management; application of international standards and strategic management mechanisms

The Impact of Green Water Management Strategies on Household-Level Agricultural Water Productivity in a Semi-Arid Region: A Survey-based Assessment

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Afton Clarke-Sather

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study evaluates the effect of policies that encourage farmers to shift to crops with higher water productivity (CWP on the farm-level CWP of agricultural systems in a semi-arid region of western China. We combine survey results of farmers’ historical cropping decisions from a 2010 survey with estimates of CWP from agronomic experiments analogous to actual cultivation practices in the region to model CWP at the farm level and understand changes driven by shifting crops. Policies designed to replace subsistence agricultural systems with two cash crops; potatoes and maize; resulted in an increase in the CWP of semi-arid agricultural systems of approximately 30% between the years 1990–2010. This change was driven by shifting to crops that have a peak water demand that occurs in the portions of the growing season with the highest rainfall. The results of this article illustrate the potential of shifts in cropping patterns to increase the CWP of agricultural systems in semi-arid regions.

Arctic sea level change over the past 2 decades from GRACE gradiometry and multi-mission satellite altimetry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, O. B.; Stenseng, L.; Sørensen, C. S.

2014-01-01

The Arctic is still an extremely challenging region for theuse of remote sensing for sea level studies. Despite the availability of 20 years of altimetry, only very limited sea level observations exist in the interior of the Arctic Ocean. However, with Cryosat-2 SAR altimetry the situation...... gradiometer observations from the ESA GOCE mission, we are now able to derive a mean dynamic topography of the Arctic Ocean with unprecedented accuracy to constrain the Arctic Ocean circulation controlling sea level variations in the Arctic. We present both a new estimation of the mean ocean circulation...... and new estimates of large scale sea level changes based on satellite data and perform an estimation of the fresh waterstorage increase over the last decade using temporal gravity changes from the GRACE satellite....

ANALYSIS AND PLANNING OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT - CONTEXTUAL VARIABLES TO DEVELOP A MODEL FOR MONITORING FINANCIAL INDICATORS AT REGIONAL LEVEL.

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CRIS TINA GRADEA

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Application of quantitative techniques in regional analysis can provide an understanding of both the change in time of regional economic performance and the interdependencies between economic sectors, including the use of projections to test the potential future development of the region. Qualitative techniques allow also the explanation of the reason for regional development patterns occurring in a region and the improvement of analysts' ability to reflect on the results and economic opportunities for a future based on collective experience, wisdom and judgment of the actors in region economies.

Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Queirós, Ana M; Huebert, Klaus B; Keyl, Friedemann; Fernandes, Jose A; Stolte, Willem; Maar, Marie; Kay, Susan; Jones, Miranda C; Hamon, Katell G; Hendriksen, Gerrit; Vermard, Youen; Marchal, Paul; Teal, Lorna R; Somerfield, Paul J; Austen, Melanie C; Barange, Manuel; Sell, Anne F; Allen, Icarus; Peck, Myron A

2016-12-01

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1992 to 2001 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Hawaii

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 2001 to 2005 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Hawaii

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

Science.gov (United States)

Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

2017-12-01

Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

ENDOGENOUS OR EXOGENOUS INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT IN INDUSTRY ON REGIONAL LEVEL?

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Arkadiusz Świadek

2014-04-01

Full Text Available At the moment endogenous growth theory has become increasingly popular in the world of science, particularly in developed countries. This article aims to show, for two regions case, the needs and sense of applying this theory in the polish regions. Due to the low level of economic development of many Polish regions, they are unable to growth in a comparable rate as regions in developed countries. This explains the economic divergence between polish regions and the highly developed regions of Europe and the World. Stimulating economic growth is insufficient in such cases, because of the weakness of its internal factors. Therefore it is important to strengthen an external impact to keep internal development. It means that the endogenous growth theory is no reason to exist, in conditions of poor polish regions. Without external inputs there can’t be convergences processes. Therefore, the economic development of the Polish regions should be based on the exogenous growth theory.

Soil organic matter change - analysis on a regional scale of Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Gruendling, Ralf; Franko, Uwe; Sedy, Katrin; Freudenschuß, Alexandra; Spiegel, Adelheid; Formayer, Herbert

2014-05-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) is an important resource in agriculture. It influences soil fertility, erosion processes and prevents soil degradation. However, SOM is strongly affected by climate change, soil conditions and management alterations. The presented study analyzes SOM changes in Austria on a regional scale in the "Marchfeld" and the "Muehlviertel". For quantification these SOM changes the model CCB (Candy Carbon Balance) was used. Based on a 1 square kilometer raster, the impact of specific site conditions on SOM are determined to characterize the study areas. Used as a main indicator for these conditions is the biologic active time (BAT). BAT describes the biologic activity for carbon cycling in top soils depending on soil and climatic conditions. High values of BAT indicate fast SOM reproduction rates. Hence, BAT changes over last years signpost the risk of SOM loss and can be used as an on-farm decision tool. The change of risks of SOM loss due to climate change is assessed by model results. Therefore, three climate scenarios are used to compute reproduction rates of SOM. "High risk-regions" can be identified for policy consulting. Different climate scenarios can help to develop best case and worst case results. First results show that the region "Marchfeld" had a higher change in BAT during last 2 decades comparing to the "Muehlviertel". A higher risk of SOM loosing is evident. Nevertheless, future scenarios predict a higher change of BAT for the "Muehlviertel". Apparently, the sensitivity of "Marchfeld" sites regard to climate change has been higher in the past and most BAT changes took place until now. With this method an evaluation of farm management in regard to SOM reproduction and recommendation of crop rotations for the future are possible. In conclusion, the aim of the project is a tool box for farmers and policy makers to evaluate present and future agricultural management. An examination of additional regions in Austria is planned.

Preliminary studies of regional cerebral blood flow changes in patients with leukoaraiosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Yaming; Ren Yan; He Qiu

1997-01-01

PURPOSE: To investigate changes of regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) in leukoaraiosis (LA) lesion and cortical regions and analyse the relation between rCBF changes and dementia. METHODS: Regional cerebral blood flow perfusion imaging with SPECT was performed in 49 patients with subcortical multiple cerebral infarction, including 24 cases company LA [LA(+)], 25 cases not company LA[LA(-)] and 10 normal subjects. The relative analysis was made between rCBF changes and cognitive scores. RESULTS: Compared the LA(+) with control, the rCBFs in frontal, parietal, temporal cortexes and LA lesion significantly decreased (P<0.05). The rCBF of frontal, parietal cortexes and LA lesions was also significantly decreased (P<0.05) compared with LA(-) groups. The cognitive scores were significantly related with rCBF changes in frontal cortex and LA lesion (r = 0.765, P<0.01 and r = 0.439, P<0.05). CONCLUSION: In patients with subcortical multiple cerebral infarction company LA lesion, there were extensive ischemic hypoperfusion changes in the cortical regions and LA lesion, which may response to decreased cerebral function and had certain relationship with dementia. The examination with SPECT cerebral blood flow perfusion imaging had unique advantage and value

State-Level Reforms That Support College-Level Program Changes in North Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Bowling, R. Edward; Morrissey, Sharon; Fouts, George M.

2014-01-01

This chapter describes the concurrent reforms occurring in North Carolina--both campus-level changes focused on such issues as developing structured programs of study and state-level reforms aimed at supporting the campus efforts.

Clusterin levels are increased in Alzheimer's disease and influence the regional distribution of Aβ.

Science.gov (United States)

Miners, J Scott; Clarke, Polly; Love, Seth

2017-05-01

Clusterin, also known as apoJ, is a lipoprotein abundantly expressed within the CNS. It regulates Aβ fibril formation and toxicity and facilitates amyloid-β (Aβ) transport across the blood-brain barrier. Genome-wide association studies have shown variations in the clusterin gene (CLU) to influence the risk of developing sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD). To explore whether clusterin modulates the regional deposition of Aβ, we measured levels of soluble (NP40-extracted) and insoluble (guanidine-HCl-extracted) clusterin, Aβ40 and Aβ42 by sandwich ELISA in brain regions with a predilection for amyloid pathology-mid-frontal cortex (MF), cingulate cortex (CC), parahippocampal cortex (PH), and regions with little or no pathology-thalamus (TH) and white matter (WM). Clusterin level was highest in regions with plaque pathology (MF, CC, PH and PC), approximately mirroring the regional distribution of Aβ. It was significantly higher in AD than controls, and correlated positively with Aβ42 and insoluble Aβ40. Soluble clusterin level rose significantly with severity of cerebral amyloid angiopathy, and in MF and PC regions was highest in APOE ɛ4 homozygotes. In the TH and WM (areas with little amyloid pathology) clusterin was unaltered in AD and did not correlate with Aβ level. There was a significant positive correlation between the concentration of clusterin and the regional levels of insoluble Aβ42; however, the molar ratio of clusterin : Aβ42 declined with insoluble Aβ42 level in a region-dependent manner, being lowest in regions with predilection for Aβ plaque pathology. Under physiological conditions, clusterin reduces aggregation and promotes clearance of Aβ. Our findings indicate that in AD, clusterin increases, particularly in regions with most abundant Aβ, but because the increase does not match the rising level of Aβ42, the molar ratio of clusterin : Aβ42 in those regions falls, probably contributing to Aβ deposition within the tissue. © 2016

An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.

1995-01-01

ESCAPE (the Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions) is an integrated climate change assessment model constructed between 1990 and 1992 for DG XI of the Commission of the European Community by a consortium of research institutes headed by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). It has been designed to enable the user to generate future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (through an energy-economic model), examine their impact on global climate and sea level (through two independent global climate models), and illustrate some of the consequences of this global climate change at a regional scale for the European Community (through a regional climate scenario generator and impact models). We provide a very brief overview of the ESCAPE model which, although innovative, suffers from a number of major limitations. Subsequent work in the CRU has concentrated on improvements to the global climate module and work has also commenced on an improved regional climate scenario generating module. These improvements will lead to a new integrated climate change assessment model, MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) which can easily be incorporated into new larger integrated frameworks developed by other institutes. (Author)

Ambient noise levels in the Taiwan region

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, W.; Liu, C.; Chen, R.; Huang, B.; Wu, F. T.; Wang, C.

2008-12-01

To characterize the island-wide background seismic noise in Taiwan, we estimate the power spectral density (PSD) at broadband stations of both the BATS (Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology) and the TAIGER experiment (Apr. 2006~Apr. 2008) for periods ranging from ~0.2 to 100 seconds. A new approach to calculate the probability density functions of noise power (PDFs, MaNamara and Buland, 2004) is used in this study. The results indicate that the cultural noise at higher frequencies is significant at populated area, which shows diurnal and weekly variation as what we expected. The noise power for microseisms centered at a period of ~5 seconds around the western costal plain show ~20dB higher than what observed at eastern Taiwan. This observation supports the inference that the coastal regions having narrow shelf with irregular coastlines are know to be especially efficient at radiating the predominat microseisms. Results from the linear array across central Taiwan demonstrate that the average noise power is quietest at the eastern Central Range. We have mapped the PDF mode for stations at various periods to see the spatial distribution of ambient noise levels, which could be used as the basic information for future station siting. Temporal variation of noise PSD is also present to provide a quantitative description of the seismic data quality collected by both BATS and TAIGER experiment. Some operational problems like base tilt, sensitivity change can be identified easily as well.

A new framework for estimating return levels using regional frequency analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro; Clegg, Georgina

2017-04-01

We propose a new framework for incorporating more spatial and temporal information into the estimation of extreme return levels. Currently, most studies use extreme value models applied to data from a single site; an approach which is inefficient statistically and leads to return level estimates that are less physically realistic. We aim to highlight the benefits that could be obtained by using methodology based upon regional frequency analysis as opposed to classic single site extreme value analysis. This motivates a shift in thinking, which permits the evaluation of local and regional effects and makes use of the wide variety of data that are now available on high temporal and spatial resolutions. The recent winter storms over the UK during the winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16, which have caused wide-ranging disruption and damaged important infrastructure, provide the main motivation for the current work. One of the most impactful natural hazards is flooding, which is often initiated by extreme precipitation. In this presentation, we focus on extreme rainfall, but shall discuss other meteorological variables alongside potentially damaging hazard combinations. To understand the risks posed by extreme precipitation, we need reliable statistical models which can be used to estimate quantities such as the T-year return level, i.e. the level which is expected to be exceeded once every T-years. Extreme value theory provides the main collection of statistical models that can be used to estimate the risks posed by extreme precipitation events. Broadly, at a single site, a statistical model is fitted to exceedances of a high threshold and the model is used to extrapolate to levels beyond the range of the observed data. However, when we have data at many sites over a spatial domain, fitting a separate model for each separate site makes little sense and it would be better if we could incorporate all this information to improve the reliability of return level estimates. Here

Regional climate change for the Pacific Northwest

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBean, G.A.; Thomas, G.

1991-01-01

The Pacific Northwest climate is dominated by topography and the Pacific Ocean; the forests have become adapted to the present climate. Within short distances there are large changes in precipitation and temperature, with resultant changes in ecosystems. As the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, global climate is expected to warm and precipitation to increase. Global climate model simulations show enhanced warming at high northern latitudes. For the Pacific Northwest, models show 2-6 degree C warming and increased precipitation in the winter for doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration. However, the regional details of these models are presently not very reliable. The results and limitations of present global climate models are reviewed. The roles of the oceans, clouds, and other feedback mechanisms are described along with some of the possible impacts of climate change on forest resources. 24 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Agricultural management explains historic changes in regional soil carbon stocks

Science.gov (United States)

van Wesemael, Bas; Paustian, Keith; Meersmans, Jeroen; Goidts, Esther; Barancikova, Gabriela; Easter, Mark

2010-01-01

Agriculture is considered to be among the economic sectors having the greatest greenhouse gas mitigation potential, largely via soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, it remains a challenge to accurately quantify SOC stock changes at regional to national scales. SOC stock changes resulting from SOC inventory systems are only available for a few countries and the trends vary widely between studies. Process-based models can provide insight in the drivers of SOC changes, but accurate input data are currently not available at these spatial scales. Here we use measurements from a soil inventory dating from the 1960s and resampled in 2006 covering the major soil types and agricultural regions in Belgium together with region-specific land use and management data and a process-based model. The largest decreases in SOC stocks occurred in poorly drained grassland soils (clays and floodplain soils), consistent with drainage improvements since 1960. Large increases in SOC in well drained grassland soils appear to be a legacy effect of widespread conversion of cropland to grassland before 1960. SOC in cropland increased only in sandy lowland soils, driven by increasing manure additions. Modeled land use and management impacts accounted for more than 70% of the variation in observed SOC changes, and no bias could be demonstrated. There was no significant effect of climate trends since 1960 on observed SOC changes. SOC monitoring networks are being established in many countries. Our results demonstrate that detailed and long-term land management data are crucial to explain the observed SOC changes for such networks. PMID:20679194

Climate change and prairie pothole wetlands: mitigating water-level and hydroperiod effects through upland management

Science.gov (United States)

Renton, David A.; Mushet, David M.; DeKeyser, Edward S.

2015-01-01

Prairie pothole wetlands offer crucial habitat for North America’s waterfowl populations. The wetlands also support an abundance of other species and provide ecological services valued by society. The hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands is dependent on atmospheric interactions. Therefore, changes to the region’s climate can have profound effects on wetland hydrology. The relevant literature related to climate change and upland management effects on prairie pothole wetland water levels and hydroperiods was reviewed. Climate change is widely expected to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole wetlands, as well as the biota and ecological services that the wetlands support. In general, hydrologic model projections that incorporate future climate change scenarios forecast lower water levels in prairie pothole wetlands and longer periods spent in a dry condition, despite potential increases in precipitation. However, the extreme natural variability in climate and hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands necessitates caution when interpreting model results. Recent changes in weather patterns throughout much of the Prairie Pothole Region have been in increased precipitation that results in increased water inputs to wetlands above losses associated with warmer temperatures. However, observed precipitation increases are within the range of natural climate variability and therefore, may not persist. Identifying management techniques with the potential to affect water inputs to prairie pothole wetlands would provide increased options for managers when dealing with the uncertainties associated with a changing climate. Several grassland management techniques (for example, grazing and burning) have the potential to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole by affecting infiltration, evapotranspiration, and snow deposition.

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael J Osland

Full Text Available Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA across political boundaries (states, wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise. Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana's network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our

Regional cerebral metabolic changes after acupuncture by FDG PET: effects and methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guan Yihui; Li Ji; Zuo Chuantao; Dong Jincheng; Zhao Jun; Lin Xiangtong

2002-01-01

In order to investigate the therapeutic mechanisms of acupuncture pints in cerebrovascular ischemic patients and normal volunteers, FDG PET was adopted. Changes in cerebral glucose metabolism and cerebral functional activity before and after electro-acupuncture treatment were studied in 12 normal volunteers and 11 cerebrovascular ischemic patients. The PET imaging was read by visual interpretation and calculated by semi-quantitative analysis. After acupuncture, cerebral glucose metabolism of the normal group is higher in the frontal lobe, temporal lobe, thalamus bilaterally and cerebellum contralaterally. The cerebrovascular ischemic patients had manifested greater response in their lesions than in their normal regions of the two tested groups, as well as than in their normal regions of the whole brain, after acupuncture treatment. The study shows that the regulatory effects of acupuncture on the central nervous system influence the brain at multiple-sections, multiple-directions and multiple-levels of brain function. It conforms to the holistic and bi-directions regulatory laws of acupuncture

How Rapid Change Affects Deltas in the Arctic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Overeem, I.; Bendixen, M.

2017-12-01

Deltas form where the river drains into the ocean. Consequently, delta depositional processes are impacted by either changes in the respective river drainage basin or by changes in the regional marine environment. In a warming Arctic region rapid change has occurred over the last few decades in both the terrestrial domain as well as in the marine domain. Important terrestrial controls include 1) change in permafrost possibly destabilizing river banks, 2) strong seasonality of river discharge due to a short melting season, 3) high sediment supply if basins are extensively glaciated, 4) lake outbursts and ice jams favoring river flooding. Whereas in the Arctic marine domain sea ice loss promotes wave and storm surge impact, and increased longshore transport. We here ask which of these factors dominate any morphological change in Arctic deltas. First, we analyze hydrological data to assess change in Arctic-wide river discharge characteristics and timing, and sea ice concentration data to map changes in sea ice regime. Based on this observational analysis we set up a number of scenarios of change. We then model hypothetical small-scale delta formation considering change in these primary controls by setting up a numerical delta model, and combining it dynamically with a permafrost model. We find that for typical Greenlandic deltas changes in river forcing due to ice sheet melt dominate the morphological change, which is corroborated by mapping of delta progradation from aerial photos and satellite imagery. Whereas in other areas, along the North Slope and the Canadian Arctic small deltas are more stable or experienced retreat. Our preliminary coupled model allows us to further disentangle the impact of major forcing factors on delta evolution in high-latitude systems.

Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

2014-01-01

Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neil Paprocki

Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

GPU accelerated edge-region based level set evolution constrained by 2D gray-scale histogram.

Science.gov (United States)

Balla-Arabé, Souleymane; Gao, Xinbo; Wang, Bin

2013-07-01

Due to its intrinsic nature which allows to easily handle complex shapes and topological changes, the level set method (LSM) has been widely used in image segmentation. Nevertheless, LSM is computationally expensive, which limits its applications in real-time systems. For this purpose, we propose a new level set algorithm, which uses simultaneously edge, region, and 2D histogram information in order to efficiently segment objects of interest in a given scene. The computational complexity of the proposed LSM is greatly reduced by using the highly parallelizable lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) with a body force to solve the level set equation (LSE). The body force is the link with image data and is defined from the proposed LSE. The proposed LSM is then implemented using an NVIDIA graphics processing units to fully take advantage of the LBM local nature. The new algorithm is effective, robust against noise, independent to the initial contour, fast, and highly parallelizable. The edge and region information enable to detect objects with and without edges, and the 2D histogram information enable the effectiveness of the method in a noisy environment. Experimental results on synthetic and real images demonstrate subjectively and objectively the performance of the proposed method.

Economic and social analyses at a regional level in the light of competitiveness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicoleta Maria Gogâltan

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In most economic studies, competitiveness is considered a key issue of the political success failure. A major element which contributes to regional inequalities is the level of competitiveness. This element has been the subject of numerous studies over the past years, even though more attention was given to the national level and less to the regional one. Moreover, the purpose of these regional analyses is the correlation of territorial objectives and problems with possible sources of financing, seeing to ensure optimal combinations between regional demand and supply, the optimal distribution of the income and of the results obtained, regional competitiveness, the location of clusters, etc.

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

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Valerie Steen

Full Text Available The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs. We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%. However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper to -100% (Wilson's Snipe. Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Historical bathymetry and bathymetric change in the Mississippi-Alabama coastal region, 1847-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Buster, Noreen A.; Morton, Robert A.

2011-01-01

Land loss and seafloor change around the Mississippi and Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands are of great concern to the public and to local, state, and federal agencies. The islands provide wildlife protected areas and recreational land, and they serve as a natural first line of defense for the mainland against storm activity (index map on poster). Principal physical conditions that drive morphological seafloor and coastal change in this area include decreased sediment supply, sea-level rise, storms, and human activities (Otvos, 1970; Byrnes and others, 1991; Morton and others, 2004; Morton, 2008). Seafloor responses to the same processes can also affect the entire coastal zone. Sediment eroded from the barrier islands is entrained in the littoral system, where it is redistributed by alongshore currents. Wave and current activity is partially controlled by the profile of the seafloor, and this interdependency along with natural and anthropogenic influences has significant effects on nearshore environments. When a coastal system is altered by human activity such as dredging, as is the case of the MS-AL coastal region, the natural state and processes are altered, and alongshore sediment transport can be disrupted. As a result of deeply dredged channels, adjacent island migration is blocked, nearshore environments downdrift in the littoral system become sediment starved, and sedimentation around the channels is modified. Sediment deposition and erosion are reflected through seafloor evolution. In a rapidly changing coastal environment, understanding historically where and why changes are occurring is essential. To better assess the comprehensive dynamics of the MS-AL coastal zone, a 160-year evaluation of the bathymetry and bathymetric change of the region was conducted.

Criteria for selecting a CO2/climate change region of study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cushman, R.; Easterling, W.; Rosenberg, N.; Malone, T.; Edmonds, J.; Scott, M.; Stoke, G.

1989-01-01

This effort has three near-term goals: (1) to develop robust methods of analysis including the analysis of uncertainty; (2) to develop information systems to support CO 2 /climate change analysis; and (3) to develop channels of communication among researchers and between researchers and parties potentially affected by CO 2 /climate change. Initially, the program will focus on a single region of the United States, employ a historical analog climate, and analyze the interactions of all of the resources resident within that region as they might evolve under current conditions and under evolving CO 2 /climate change over the next 50 years. Five elements of the program will address the issues of: Analysis, Information Systems, Uncertainty, Knowledge Transfer, and Coordination. This paper will give special attention to the analytical framework and in particular to the criteria for selecting a region for study. 19 refs., 2 figs

Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.; Lucas, P.L.; Hilderink, H.

2007-01-01

Global environmental change scenarios typically distinguish between about 10–20 global regions. However, various studies need scenario information at a higher level of spatial detail. This paper presents a set of algorithms that aim to fill this gap by providing downscaled scenario data for

75 FR 21979 - NRC Region II Address and Main Telephone Number Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-27

... Region II Address and Main Telephone Number Changes AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Final... address for its Region II office and to update the main telephone number. The Region II office move and... update the NRC Region II office street address and office main telephone number. The physical location of...

Assessing the impact of sea level rise due to climate change on seawater intrusion in Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

Science.gov (United States)

Vu, D T; Yamada, T; Ishidaira, H

2018-03-01

In the context of climate change, salinity intrusion into rivers has been, and will be, one of the most important issues for coastal water resources management. A combination of changes, including increased temperature, change in regional rainfall, especially sea level rise (SLR) related to climate change, will have significant impacts on this phenomenon. This paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (MKD) for evaluating the effect of sea water intrusion under a new SLR scenario. Salinity intrusion was simulated by one-dimensional (1D) modeling. The relative sea level projection was constructed corresponding to the RCP 6.0 emission scenario for MKD based on the statistical downscaling method. The sea level in 2050 is projected to increase from 25 cm to 30 cm compared to the baseline period (in 2000). Furthermore, the simulated results suggested that salinity greater than 4 g/l, which affects rice yield, will intrude up to 50-60 km into the river. Approximately 30,000 ha of agricultural area will be affected if the sea level rise is 30 cm.

Sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters affecting groundwater storage change caused by sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.

2012-04-01

Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea

Readying Health Services for Climate Change: A Policy Framework for Regional Development

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Climate change presents the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. However, many public health leaders feel ill equipped to face the challenges of climate change and have been unable to make climate change a priority in service development. I explore how to achieve a regionally responsive whole-of-systems approach to climate change in the key operational areas of a health service: service governance and culture, service delivery, workforce development, asset management, and financing. The relative neglect of implementation science means that policymakers need to be proactive about sourcing and developing models and processes to make health services ready for climate change. Health research funding agencies should urgently prioritize applied, regionally responsive health services research for a future of climate change. PMID:21421953

Readying health services for climate change: a policy framework for regional development.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Erica

2011-05-01

Climate change presents the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. However, many public health leaders feel ill equipped to face the challenges of climate change and have been unable to make climate change a priority in service development. I explore how to achieve a regionally responsive whole-of-systems approach to climate change in the key operational areas of a health service: service governance and culture, service delivery, workforce development, asset management, and financing. The relative neglect of implementation science means that policymakers need to be proactive about sourcing and developing models and processes to make health services ready for climate change. Health research funding agencies should urgently prioritize applied, regionally responsive health services research for a future of climate change.

Sea level change since 2005: importance of salinity

Science.gov (United States)

Llovel, W.; Purkey, S.; Meyssignac, B.; Kolodziejczyk, N.; Blazquez, A.; Bamber, J. L.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of the actual global warming. Global mean sea level has been rising at a faster rate since 1993 (over the satellite altimetry era) than previous decades. This rise is expected to accelerate over the coming decades and century. At global scale, sea level rise is caused by a combination of freshwater increase from land ice melting and land water changes (mass component) and ocean warming (thermal expansion). Estimating the causes is of great interest not only to understand the past sea level changes but also to validate projections based on climate models. In this study, we investigate the global mass contribution to recent sea level changes with an alternative approach by estimating the global ocean freshening. For that purpose, we consider the unprecedented amount of salinity measurements from Argo floats for the past decade (2005-2015). We compare our results to the ocean mass inferred by GRACE data and based on a sea level budget approach. Our results bring new constrains on the global water cycle (ocean freshening) and energy budget (ocean warming) as well as on the global ocean mass directly inferred from GRACE data.

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

Science.gov (United States)

Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2018-03-01

Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

Urban and regional change in Australia: an empirical introduction.

Science.gov (United States)

O'connor, K

1984-08-01

Recent changes in the spatial distribution of the population in Australia are examined. In particular, changes in population by state are analyzed for the period 1971-1981. The relationship of these changes to shifts in economic activity, private investment, and banking activity is considered. "Results show there have been only small shifts toward population growth areas. These results are interpreted in part as a consequence of nonlocal multipliers and linkages back to established areas, but also as a reflection of the unique features of the Australian urban and regional system." excerpt

A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

Science.gov (United States)

Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

2017-04-01

Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

ESTIMATION AND PROGNOSIS OF QUALITY OF ATMOSPHERIC AIR AT REGIONAL LEVEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

POLISCHUK S. Z.

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Raising of problem. The problem of quality of atmospheric air takes a special place among problems of protection of a surrounding environment. It is caused first of all by vital necessity of atmospheric air for all alive on the Earth, influence of a condition of an atmosphere on global climatic processes and biosphere as a whole due to huge mobility of air weights with which harmful impurity can be transferred. These questions for industrial regions where the level of anthropogenous influence has reached critical size are especially actual. The Dnepropetrovsk area concerns to such regions also. By development of scripts of development of such regions and their territorial components there is a necessity for definition of possible consequences of anthropogenous processes, which occur (or can occur in atmospheric air. It demands strengthening прогнозных functions of ecological monitoring, in particular on atmospheric air, at planning and building of territories, at a choice of the optimum script of town-planning. Purpose. To improve a subsystem of an estimation and the forecast of a condition of atmospheric air on an example of system of ecological monitoring «Pridneprov'e» the Dnepropetrovsk area by means of introduction of a complex of the mathematical models focused on large industrial region which will allow at presence of criteria and parameters to receive as statistical (for the short-term forecast during steady atmospheric processes, and dynamic estimations of a condition of atmospheric air, the forecast of changes of parameters of atmospheric air and distribution of polluting substances, and also their influence on an environment and the person. Conclusion. The offered approach allows to consider complex parameters of steady development, territorial, branch, social, economic and ecological, time aspects, opportunities of atmospheric air as a polyresource, provides the forecast and an estimation of a condition of atmospheric air

Anthropocene streams and base-level controls from historic dams in the unglaciated mid-Atlantic region, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Merritts, Dorothy; Walter, Robert; Rahnis, Michael; Hartranft, Jeff; Cox, Scott; Gellis, Allen; Potter, Noel; Hilgartner, William; Langland, Michael; Manion, Lauren; Lippincott, Caitlin; Siddiqui, Sauleh; Rehman, Zain; Scheid, Chris; Kratz, Laura; Shilling, Andrea; Jenschke, Matthew; Datin, Katherine; Cranmer, Elizabeth; Reed, Austin; Matuszewski, Derek; Voli, Mark; Ohlson, Erik; Neugebauer, Ali; Ahamed, Aakash; Neal, Conor; Winter, Allison; Becker, Steven

2011-01-01

Recently, widespread valley-bottom damming for water power was identified as a primary control on valley sedimentation in the mid-Atlantic US during the late seventeenth to early twentieth century. The timing of damming coincided with that of accelerated upland erosion during post-European settlement land-use change. In this paper, we examine the impact of local drops in base level on incision into historic reservoir sediment as thousands of ageing dams breach. Analysis of lidar and field data indicates that historic milldam building led to local base-level rises of 2-5 m (typical milldam height) and reduced valley slopes by half. Subsequent base-level fall with dam breaching led to an approximate doubling in slope, a significant base-level forcing. Case studies in forested, rural as well as agricultural and urban areas demonstrate that a breached dam can lead to stream incision, bank erosion and increased loads of suspended sediment, even with no change in land use. After dam breaching, key predictors of stream bank erosion include number of years since dam breach, proximity to a dam and dam height. One implication of this work is that conceptual models linking channel condition and sediment yield exclusively with modern upland land use are incomplete for valleys impacted by milldams. With no equivalent in the Holocene or late Pleistocene sedimentary record, modern incised stream-channel forms in the mid-Atlantic region represent a transient response to both base-level forcing and major changes in land use beginning centuries ago. Similar channel forms might also exist in other locales where historic milling was prevalent.

A Bayesian Belief Network framework to predict SOC stock change: the Veneto region (Italy) case study

Science.gov (United States)

Dal Ferro, Nicola; Quinn, Claire Helen; Morari, Francesco

2017-04-01

A key challenge for soil scientists is predicting agricultural management scenarios that combine crop productions with high standards of environmental quality. In this context, reversing the soil organic carbon (SOC) decline in croplands is required for maintaining soil fertility and contributing to mitigate GHGs emissions. Bayesian belief networks (BBN) are probabilistic models able to accommodate uncertainty and variability in the predictions of the impacts of management and environmental changes. By linking multiple qualitative and quantitative variables in a cause-and-effect relationships, BBNs can be used as a decision support system at different spatial scales to find best management strategies in the agroecosystems. In this work we built a BBN to model SOC dynamics (0-30 cm layer) in the low-lying plain of Veneto region, north-eastern Italy, and define best practices leading to SOC accumulation and GHGs (CO2-equivalent) emissions reduction. Regional pedo-climatic, land use and management information were combined with experimental and modelled data on soil C dynamics as natural and anthropic key drivers affecting SOC stock change. Moreover, utility nodes were introduced to determine optimal decisions for mitigating GHGs emissions from croplands considering also three different IPCC climate scenarios. The network was finally validated with real field data in terms of SOC stock change. Results showed that the BBN was able to model real SOC stock changes, since validation slightly overestimated SOC reduction (+5%) at the expenses of its accumulation. At regional level, probability distributions showed 50% of SOC loss, while only 17% of accumulation. However, the greatest losses (34%) were associated with low reduction rates (100-500 kg C ha-1 y-1), followed by 33% of stabilized conditions (-100 < SOC < 100 kg ha-1 y-1). Land use management (especially tillage operations and soil cover) played a primary role to affect SOC stock change, while climate conditions

Western Regional Center of the National Institute for Climatic Change Research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hungate, Bruce A. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)

2013-05-02

The major goal of this project was fostering, integrating, synthesizing, and disseminating experimental, observational, and modeling research on predicted climate change in the western region of the U.S. and the impacts of that change on the structure, productivity, and climatic interactions of the region's natural and managed ecological systems. This was accomplished through administering a competitive grants program developed in collaboration with the other four regional centers of the NICCR. The activities supported included efforts to synthesize research on climate change in the western U.S. through meta-analysis studies, model comparisons, and data synthesis workshops. Results from this work were disseminated to the scientific and public media. This project also supported the development of the NICCR web site, hosted at NAU, which was used as the means to accept pre-proposal and proposal submissions for each funding cycle, and served as a clearing house for public outreach for results from NICCR-funded research

Radioactivity levels in three regions of Costa Rica

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mora, P.; Salazar, A.

1995-01-01

The establishment of the first radioactivity levels of natural radiation was carried out during the period 1991 to 1994 in three different regions of Costa Rica. The radionuclides studied belong to different soil types related to each selected region. Utilizing low level counting techniques the specific activity of the natural radioactive chains 238 U daughters, 232 Th and the element 40 K were measured for a total of 120 samples during this period. The amount of 137 Cs, a fall out radionuclide, was also studied. The average national values in Bq.kg -1 measured for 238 U were 11.66 for 214 Bi, 34.42 for 226 Ra and 10.73 for 232 Pb, for 232 Th daughters were 4.08 for 208 Tl, 9.65 for 212 Bi and 7.62 for 228 Ac. The specific activity value for 40 K was 95.14 Bq.kg -1 and for 137 Cs was 2.38 Bq.kg -1 . It is found that Costa Rica is not highly natural radioactive country and that the values for 137 Cs are well below international reported values [es

Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

Science.gov (United States)

2008-01-01

Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

Climate Change in Alpine Regions - Regional Characteristics of a Global Phenomenon by the Example of Air Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, Erich; Stary, Ulrike

2017-04-01

For nearly 50 years the Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW) has been engaged in research in the Alpine region recording measuring data at extreme sites. Data series of this duration provide already a good insight into the evolution of climate parameters. Extrapolations derived from it are suitable for comparison with results from climate change models or supplement them with regard to their informative value. This is useful because climate change models describe a simplified picture of reality based on the size of the data grid they use. Analysis of time series of two air temperature measuring stations in different torrent catchment areas indicate that 1) predictions of temperature rise for the Alpine region in Austria will have to be revised upwards, and 2) only looking at the data of seasons (or shorter time periods), reveals the real dramatic effect of climate change. Considering e.g. the annual average data of air temperature of the years 1969-2016 at the climate station "Fleissner" (altitude 1210m a.s.l; Upper Mölltal, Carinthia) a significant upward trend is visible. Using a linear smoothing function an increase of the average annual air temperature of about 2.2°C within 50 years emerges. The calculated temperature rise thus confirms the general fear of an increase of more than 2.0°C till the middle of the 21st century. Looking at the seasonal change of air temperature, significant positive trends are shown in all four seasons. But the level of the respective temperature increase varies considerably and indicates the highest increase in spring (+3.3°C), and the lowest one in autumn (+1.3°C, extrapolated for a time period of 50 years). The maximum increase of air temperature at the measuring station "Pumpenhaus" (altitude 980m a.s.l), which is situated in the "Karnische Alpen" in the south of Austria, is even stronger. From a time series of 28 years (with data recording starting in 1989) the maximum rise of temperature was 5.4°C detected for the

Investigation of natural radioactivity level of the waters in the tibet autonomous region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Tianhua; Li Yankun; Yao Ke; Pan Chengchang

1995-01-01

The investigation results of natural radioactivity level in river, lake, spring, well and tap water in the Tibet Autonomous Region is reported. There were totally 46 samples collected from 53 measuring points. The results show that the radioactivity level of water bodies of the Tibet Autonomous region was within normal natural background

Investigation of natural radioactivity level of the waters in Guangxi Zhuangzu Autonomous Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Mingshen; Ming Chuanbao; Dai Guozhi; Liang Runping; Chen Xiuyu; Yang Gang; Jin Mei

1993-01-01

This paper reports the investigation results of natural radioactivity level in river, lake reservoir, spring, well and tap water in Guangxi Zhuangzu Autonomous Region. There were totally 194 samples collected from 143 measuring points. The results show that the radioactivity level of varied water bodies of the region was within normal natural background

A System of Systems Approach to Integrating Global Sea Level Change Application Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Bambachus, M. J.; Foster, R. S.; Powell, C.; Cole, M.

2005-12-01

The global sea level change application community has numerous disparate models used to make predications over various regional and temporal scales. These models have typically been focused on limited sets of data and optimized for specific areas or questions of interest. Increasingly, decision makers at the national, international, and local/regional levels require access to these application data models and want to be able to integrate large disparate data sets, with new ubiquitous sensor data, and use these data across models from multiple sources. These requirements will force the Global Sea Level Change application community to take a new system-of-systems approach to their programs. We present a new technical architecture approach to the global sea level change program that provides external access to the vast stores of global sea level change data, provides a collaboration forum for the discussion and visualization of data, and provides a simulation environment to evaluate decisions. This architectural approach will provide the tools to support multi-disciplinary decision making. A conceptual system of systems approach is needed to address questions around the multiple approaches to tracking and predicting Sea Level Change. A systems of systems approach would include (1) a forum of data providers, modelers, and users, (2) a service oriented architecture including interoperable web services with a backbone of Grid computing capability, and (3) discovery and access functionality to the information developed through this structure. Each of these three areas would be clearly designed to maximize communication, data use for decision making and flexibility and extensibility for evolution of technology and requirements. In contemplating a system-of-systems approach, it is important to highlight common understanding and coordination as foundational to success across the multiple systems. The workflow of science in different applications is often conceptually similar

REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF LANDSCAPE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE EFFECTS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION, THE MOROCCO CASE STUDY (1981 - 2003)

Science.gov (United States)

The effect of changes in landscape factors on socioeconomics was analyzedlocally and regionally. The method presented here allows mapping changes in vegetation covertrends over large areas quickly and inexpensively, thus providing policy-makers with a technical

Evaluate prevailing climate change on Great Lakes water levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Islam, M.

2009-01-01

'Full text:'In this paper, results of a comprehensive water mass balance modeling for the Great Lakes against prevailing and different anticipated climate change scenarios would be presented. Modeling is done in evaluating the changes in the lake storages and then changes in the lake's water level considering present condition, uncertainty and variability of climate and hydrologic conditions in the future. Inflow-outflow and consequent changes in the five Great Lake's storages are simulated for the last 30 years and then projected to evaluate the changes in the lake storages for the next 50 years. From the predicted changes in the lake storage data, water level is calculated using mass to linear conversion equation. Modeling and analysis results are expected to be helpful in understanding the possible impacts of the climate change on the Great Lakes water environment and preparing strategic plan for the sustainable management of lake's water resources. From the recent past, it is observed that there is a depleting trend in the lakes water level and hence there is a potential threat to lake's water environment and uncertainty of the availability of quality and quantity of water for the future generations, especially against prevailing and anticipated climate changes. For this reason, it is an urgent issue of understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on the Great Lake's water levels and storages. (author)

Effect of climatic change on surface environments in the typical region of Horqin Sandy Land

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2010-01-01

The town of Agura,a typical region in Horqin Sandy Land,was selected as the study area in this paper.Using 12 remote sensing images and climatic data from the past 20 years,the effects of climate change on surface environments were analyzed.The impact indices of climatic factors,along with their corresponding ranks,were used to characterize the responses of different types of surface environments to climate change.Results show that in the past 20 years,the surface environments of the study area have been deteriorating.Furthermore,there is a positive relationship between the changes in surface environments and those in climatic factors.Various climatic factors influence surface environments in different ways and at different levels.The most sensitive factor is relative humidity,followed by precipitation and evaporation.Overall,moisture is the key factor that affects the changes in surface environments of arid and semi-arid areas.

The role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meijerink, Sander; Stiller, Sabina; Keskitalo, E.C.H.; Scholten, Peter; Smits, Robert; Lamoen, van Frank

2015-01-01

This paper aims to better understand the role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation. We first present a framework, which distinguishes five functions of leadership within inter-organizational networks: the connective, enabling, adaptive, political–administrative and dissemination

Associations between initial change in physical activity level and subsequent change in regional body fat distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ezekwe, Kelechi A; Adegboye, Amanda R A; Gamborg, Michael

2013-01-01

examination, while waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured at both follow-ups. RESULTS: Among men, WC increased in the constant active group to a lesser extent than in the non-constant active group (3.4 vs. 4.1 cm; p = 0.03) concerning leisure time physical activities (LTPA......). A similar pattern was observed for both WC and HC in relation to occupational physical activities (OPA) (p = 0.02). Among women, the results went in the same direction for LTPA, whereas the associations with OPA were in the opposite direction (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: LTPA and OPA were associated......BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined which lifestyle factors relate to the development of fat distribution. Therefore, the identification of the determinants of changes in fat deposition is highly relevant. METHODS: The association between the change in physical activity (PA) and the subsequent...

Long-term and seasonal Caspian Sea level change from satellite gravity and altimeter measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, J. L.; Wilson, C. R.; Tapley, B. D.; Save, H.; Cretaux, Jean-Francois

2017-03-01

We examine recent Caspian Sea level change by using both satellite radar altimetry and satellite gravity data. The altimetry record for 2002-2015 shows a declining level at a rate that is approximately 20 times greater than the rate of global sea level rise. Seasonal fluctuations are also much larger than in the world oceans. With a clearly defined geographic region and dominant signal magnitude, variations in the sea level and associated mass changes provide an excellent way to compare various approaches for processing satellite gravity data. An altimeter time series derived from several successive satellite missions is compared with mass measurements inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data in the form of both spherical harmonic (SH) and mass concentration (mascon) solutions. After correcting for spatial leakage in GRACE SH estimates by constrained forward modeling and accounting for steric and terrestrial water processes, GRACE and altimeter observations are in complete agreement at seasonal and longer time scales, including linear trends. This demonstrates that removal of spatial leakage error in GRACE SH estimates is both possible and critical to improving their accuracy and spatial resolution. Excellent agreement between GRACE and altimeter estimates also provides confirmation of steric Caspian Sea level change estimates. GRACE mascon estimates (both the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) coastline resolution improvement version 2 solution and the Center for Space Research (CSR) regularized) are also affected by leakage error. After leakage corrections, both JPL and CSR mascon solutions also agree well with altimeter observations. However, accurate quantification of leakage bias in GRACE mascon solutions is a more challenging problem.

Prospects for regional safeguards systems - State-level Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peixoto, O.J.M.

2013-01-01

The increased co-operation with Regional Safeguard's System (RSAC) is a relevant tool for strengthening effectiveness and improving the efficiency of the international safeguard. The new safeguards system that emerges from the application of the Additional Protocol (INFCIRC/540) and the full use of State-level Concept is a challenge and an opportunity for effectively incorporate RSAC into the international safeguards scheme. The challenge is to determine how the co-operation and coordination will be implemented on this new safeguards scheme. This paper presents some discussions and prospects on the issues to be faced by RSAC and IAEA during the implementation of State-level Approach (SLA) using all information available. It is also discussed how different levels of co-operation could be achieved when SLA is applied by IAEA safeguards. The paper is followed by the slides of the presentation. (authors)

Typology of Regions by Level and Dynamics of the Quality of Life

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boris Mikhailovich Grinchel’

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The paper considers the methodology and algorithm for the construction of typologies of regions in a two-dimensional space “level of development – dynamics of development” taking into account the quality of life, which is one of the most relevant competitiveness factors at the present stage of Russia’s development. The authors analyze the concept of “quality of life” and propose their own variant of the concept, on the basis of which they make a list of indicators for measuring and assessing the “quality of life” factor. In the implementation of the algorithm it is proposed to transform specific indicators, which assess the level and dynamics of the quality of life, into nonmetric numerical scores, normalized to the weighted average values of indicators for the Russian regions. The method of transformation of indicators into scores was tested on the example of the Northwestern Federal District regions, and the typologies in a two-dimensional space “level – dynamics” of the quality of life were made for 80 regions of Russia; the level of the quality of life was assessed according to official statistics for 2013, and the dynamics of the quality of life was assessed with the use of official statistics for 2011–2013. A detailed analysis is provided for each of the proposed typological groups and characteristics of this typology are highlighted. The proposed methodology and algorithm make it possible to compare and analyze not only the level and dynamics of development of different factors promoting competitive attractiveness, but also the interaction b etween the factors, for example, such as economy and the quality of life, economy and innovation, innovation and human resources, quality of life and innovation, etc. The typology provides a better understanding of advantages and disadvantages of both federal and local social policy for regional strategic development and helps justify the need and the focus of territorial

High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry.

Science.gov (United States)

Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2016-12-01

The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal

Sensitivity of Estuaries to Coastal Morphological Change Induced by Sea Level Rise

Science.gov (United States)

Alizad, K.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Mariotti, G.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands play a critical role by providing food and habitat for a variety of species and by dissipating wave and storm surge. These regions are also vulnerable to climate change and specifically rising sea levels. Projections show that coastal marshes across the Northern Gulf of Mexico are threatened by a higher risk of losing their productivity through increased inundation depth and time [Alizad et al., 2016a]. Individual estuaries will respond differently to stressors based on local conditions such as tidal range, creek geometry, and sediment sources, among others. In addition, morphological changes in estuaries are functions of both physical processes such as hydrodynamics and wind waves as well as biological mechanisms. To investigate the sensitivity of storm surge to bio-geomorphological changes associated with climate change within an estuary, the Hydro-MEM model [Alizad et al., 2016b] and first-order bathymetric changes were applied for a set of sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Morphologic change in the form of marsh platform accretion and enhanced bay bathymetry through time was employed in an ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) shallow-water equation model. The model was used to run synthetic storm simulations for an intermediate-low (0.5 m), intermediate-high (1.2 m), and high (2.0 m) SLR scenarios in Grand Bay, MS (marine dominated) and Weeks Bay, AL (mixed) estuaries. Results including with and without morphologic changes applied will be discussed. Future steps for incorporating morphological effects including channel widening and wave erosion processes into the Hydro-MEM model is to couple morphologic and hydrodynamic models [Mariotti and Canestrelli, 2017] in the Hydro-MEM time step framework. ReferencesAlizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, and J. F. Weishampel (2016a), Coastal wetland response to sea-level rise in a fluvial estuarine system, Earth's Future, 4(11), 483-497. Alizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, P

Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.

Science.gov (United States)

Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

2010-08-07

Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.

Uneven Distribution of Regional Blood Supply Prompts the Cystic Change of Pituitary Adenoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jianhe; Gu, Jianjun; Ma, Yiming; Huang, Yinxing; Wang, Jiaxing; Wu, Zhifeng; Zhong, Qun; Wang, Shousen

2017-07-01

Previous studies have suggested that the cystic change of pituitary adenoma might be related to the blood supply and metabolism of the tumor; however, the exact pathologic mechanism underlying the cystic change remains unknown. We aimed to assess the features of regional blood supply of pituitary adenoma and examine its relationship with the cystic change of pituitary adenoma. Patients (N = 79) with pituitary adenoma admitted to our hospital were divided into the parenchyma group (n = 40) or the cystic change group (n = 39). Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging of the pituitary adenoma was conducted for the parenchyma group and the steepest slopes (SS max , reflecting regional blood supply) at different areas were calculated. The location of cystic change of the pituitary adenoma was recorded and analyzed for the cystic change group. The parenchyma group showed an upper SS max of 2.52 ± 1.18, a lower SS max of 2.89 ± 1.46, a left SS max of 2.71 ± 1.31, and a right SS max of 2.66 ± 1.29. The difference between the upper and lower SS max was statistically significant (P supply is unevenly distributed in the parenchymal pituitary adenoma, with reduced blood supply in the upper than the lower region. Cystic change mainly occurs in the upper region of pituitary adenoma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Science.gov (United States)

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

Causes and consequences of short-term sea-level changes in the Cretaceous green- and "hothouse": Topics and context of IGCP Project 609

Science.gov (United States)

Sames, Benjamin; Wagreich, Michael

2015-04-01

In contrast to the well-understood process of glacial eustasy, controlled mainly by waxing and waning of continental ice sheets, significant short-term, i.e. 10s kyr to a few myr (3rd to 4th order cycles) sea-level changes during the Cretaceous major greenhouse episode remain enigmatic. Such cyclic changes are often explained by the presence of ephemeral ice sheets even during the hottest greenhouse phases ("hothouse periods"), such as the mid-Cretaceous. Though Cretaceous global eustasy involves processes like brief glacial episodes (glacio-eustasy) for which evidence was given - at least for the Early Cretaceous and the late Late Cretaceous - other mechanisms have to be taken into consideration for the "hothouse periods" during which continental ice shields are highly improbable, like the storage and release of groundwater (termed "limno-eustasy" or "aquifer-eustasy"), the possible effect and magnitude of which might have been highly underestimated. Investigation of the timing, the causes, and the consequences of significant short-term (i.e. mainly kyr to 100s of kyr) sea-level changes during the last major greenhouse episode of Earth history, the Cretaceous, is the ultimate goal of the UNESCO IGCP (International Geoscience Programme) project number 609 "Climate-environmental deteriorations during greenhouse phases: Causes and consequences of short-term Cretaceous sea-level changes" (2013-2017; http://www.univie.ac.at/igcp609/). This also comprises the global versus regional correlation and extent of the sequences, their cyclicities, as well as the processes and triggering mechanisms for these, and marine to non-marine correlations. Recent refinements of the geological time scale have made major advances for the Cretaceous to yield a resolution comparable to that of younger Earth history. It is now for the first time possible to correlate and date short-term Cretaceous sea-level records with a resolution appropriate for their detailed analysis. Recognized

Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

Science.gov (United States)

Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard; Woollings, Tim

2016-04-01

In the upcoming North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), we present a synthesis of current knowledge about past, present and possible future climate change in the North Sea region. A climate change assessment from published scientific work has been conducted as a kind of regional IPCC report, and a book has been produced that will be published by Springer in 2016. In the framework of the NOSCCA project, we examine past and present studies of variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period, roughly the past 200 years, based on observations and reanalyses. The variables addressed in this presentation are large-scale circulation, pressure and wind, surface air temperature, precipitation and radiative properties (clouds, solar radiation, and sunshine duration). While air temperature over land, not unexpectedly, has increased everywhere in the North Sea region, with strongest trends in spring and in the north of the region, a precipitation increase has been observed in the north and a decrease in the south of the region. This pattern goes along with a north-eastward shift of storm tracks and is in agreement with climate model projections under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. For other variables, it is not obvious which part of the observed changes may be due to anthropogenic activities and which is internally forced. It remains also unclear to what extent atmospheric circulation over the North Sea region is influenced by distant factors, in particular Arctic sea-ice decline in recent decades. There are indications of an increase in the number of deep cyclones (but not in the total number of cyclones), while storminess since the late 19th century shows no robust trends. The persistence of circulation types appears to have increased over the last century, and consequently, there is an indication for 'more extreme' extreme events. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess

Levels and patterns of nucleotide variation in domestication QTL regions on rice chromosome 3 suggest lineage-specific selection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xianfa Xie

Full Text Available Oryza sativa or Asian cultivated rice is one of the major cereal grass species domesticated for human food use during the Neolithic. Domestication of this species from the wild grass Oryza rufipogon was accompanied by changes in several traits, including seed shattering, percent seed set, tillering, grain weight, and flowering time. Quantitative trait locus (QTL mapping has identified three genomic regions in chromosome 3 that appear to be associated with these traits. We would like to study whether these regions show signatures of selection and whether the same genetic basis underlies the domestication of different rice varieties. Fragments of 88 genes spanning these three genomic regions were sequenced from multiple accessions of two major varietal groups in O. sativa--indica and tropical japonica--as well as the ancestral wild rice species O. rufipogon. In tropical japonica, the levels of nucleotide variation in these three QTL regions are significantly lower compared to genome-wide levels, and coalescent simulations based on a complex demographic model of rice domestication indicate that these patterns are consistent with selection. In contrast, there is no significant reduction in nucleotide diversity in the homologous regions in indica rice. These results suggest that there are differences in the genetic and selective basis for domestication between these two Asian rice varietal groups.

Spatio-temporal changes in precipitation over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Na; Yue, Tianxiang; Li, Han; Zhang, Lili; Yin, Xiaozhe; Liu, Yi

2018-04-01

Changes in precipitation have a large effect on human society and are of primary importance for many scientific fields such as hydrology, agriculture and eco-environmental sciences. The present study intended to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region by using 316 meteorological stations during the period 1965-2014. Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) method and High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM) method were applied to produce the precipitation patterns at different time scales. Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test was applied to analyze the precipitation temporal variations. Results indicated that annual precipitation over the past 50 years appeared to be a non-periodic oscillation phenomenon; the number of wet years was approximately the same as that of dry years; significant positive trends were observed in spring during 1978-2014 and summer during 1996-2014; on the whole, precipitation in May, June, September, and December showed increasing trends at the 95% confidence level; and significant positive trends were also identified in July during 2000-2013 and August during 1997-2010, while slight decreasing trends were observed in February and November. Summer (June, July, and August) was the wettest season, accounting for 68.73% of annual totals in BTH. In general, northeastern BTH received the highest range of precipitation while northwestern area had the lowest. It was found that precipitation variation in this region had been closely linked to latitude, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), distance to the sea, and urbanization rate. In addition, land use played an important role in the decadal precipitation changes in BTH.

Determinants of the Shadow Economy in the Czech Regions: A Region-Level Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Buček Jakub

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the size and development of the shadow economy in the Czech Republic on the state-level base over the 2005-2014 period. The multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC model is used to assess the estimation of the shadow economy size. I investigate how labour market, number of people with at least one distraint, and the burden of taxation might contribute to the existence of the shadow economy. While the former two are important determinants of the shadow economy, I find no evidence to prove any significant impact of distraints on the shadow economy size. As for the country’s particular regions, I find that those surrounding big cities, especially Prague, have, on average, a smaller shadow economy size, whereas regions in the borderlands (former Sudetenland suffer from a larger shadow economy.

Remote sensing data analysis for assessment of sea level change in Asia; Asia ni okeru kaisuijun hendo eikyo hyoka no tame no remote sensing gazo kaiseki

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Okubo, Y; Tanaka, A [Geological Survey of Japan, Tsukuba (Japan); Kaku, M [Bishimetal Exploration Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

1997-10-22

Remote sensing images include information of coastal land division, sea level change such as sedimentary environment and vegetation, and distribution of artificial structures. Past sea level changes and their causes can be regionally obtained by analyzing these data and by integrating them with information obtained from geological survey. In this study, causes and history of past sea level changes, formation mechanism of coastal topography, and past sea level change survey in Thailand have been reviewed. This paper describes an extraction method of the sea level change information in coastal districts by analyzing several actual remote sensing images. For understanding the current sea level rise, it is required to clarify the causes quantitatively among three causes of sea level changes, i.e., volumetric change of total ocean water on the earth, relative sea level change due to the crustal deformation, and change of irregularity of sea surface with ocean current. It is also required to compile maps in Asian or global scales. 13 refs., 6 figs.