WorldWideScience

Sample records for level change regional

  1. Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stammer, Detlef; Cazenave, Anny; Ponte, Rui M; Tamisiea, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.

  2. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Carson, M.; Katsman, C.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Stammer, D.

    2014-01-01

    We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 (st) century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined

  3. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnabend, S. E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, Michael; Bal, Henri E.; Seinstra, Frank J.; van Werkhoven, Ben; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and

  4. Integrated assessment of adaptation to Climate change in Flevoland at the farm and regional level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, J.; Mandryk, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Oort, van P.A.J.; Schaap, B.F.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2011-01-01

    A key objective of the AgriAdapt project is to assess climate change impacts on agriculture including adaptation at regional and farm type level in combination with market and technological changes. More specifically, the developed methodologies enable (a) the assessment of impacts, risks and

  5. Associations between initial change in physical activity level and subsequent change in regional body fat distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezekwe, Kelechi A; Adegboye, Amanda R A; Gamborg, Michael; Heitmann, Berit L

    2013-01-01

    Few studies have examined which lifestyle factors relate to the development of fat distribution. Therefore, the identification of the determinants of changes in fat deposition is highly relevant. The association between the change in physical activity (PA) and the subsequent changes in regional body fat distributions was examined. In total, 1,236 men and 1,201 women were included at baseline and participated in the Danish MONICA (MONItoring Trends and Determinants in CArdiovascular Disease) study. A questionnaire was used to assess PA at 5 and 11 years after baseline examination, while waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured at both follow-ups. Among men, WC increased in the constant active group to a lesser extent than in the non-constant active group (3.4 vs. 4.1 cm; p = 0.03) concerning leisure time physical activities (LTPA). A similar pattern was observed for both WC and HC in relation to occupational physical activities (OPA) (p = 0.02). Among women, the results went in the same direction for LTPA, whereas the associations with OPA were in the opposite direction (p = 0.001). LTPA and OPA were associated with reduced subsequent 6-year changes in regional fat distribution for men. For women, no associations were observed in relation to WC; however, OPA seemed to increase HC among women. © 2013 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

  6. On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

    2010-12-01

    Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

  7. Climate Change and Regulation in International and Regional Level, Especially the Built Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putnoki Zsuzsanna

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article starts with a brief insight into the history of climate change, with a scope on the international and legal aspects of ever-changing regulations. The regional level is in the article is The European Union, as the only regional economic integration organization under the Kyoto Protocol. It deals with the United Nation’s international agreements like UNFCCC its Kyoto’s Protocol and the Post-Kyoto era. It also analyses the EU’s system in the climate change law with correspondence the international rules. Comparison between international and regional legislation in the climate change is used as a tool of analysis. Finally an insight is given into a special field in the climate change, the build environment, reflecting on the related United Nation’s recommendation and the EU’s regulation.

  8. Multiscale Region-Level VHR Image Change Detection via Sparse Change Descriptor and Robust Discriminative Dictionary Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Xu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Very high resolution (VHR image change detection is challenging due to the low discriminative ability of change feature and the difficulty of change decision in utilizing the multilevel contextual information. Most change feature extraction techniques put emphasis on the change degree description (i.e., in what degree the changes have happened, while they ignore the change pattern description (i.e., how the changes changed, which is of equal importance in characterizing the change signatures. Moreover, the simultaneous consideration of the classification robust to the registration noise and the multiscale region-consistent fusion is often neglected in change decision. To overcome such drawbacks, in this paper, a novel VHR image change detection method is proposed based on sparse change descriptor and robust discriminative dictionary learning. Sparse change descriptor combines the change degree component and the change pattern component, which are encoded by the sparse representation error and the morphological profile feature, respectively. Robust change decision is conducted by multiscale region-consistent fusion, which is implemented by the superpixel-level cosparse representation with robust discriminative dictionary and the conditional random field model. Experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed change detection technique.

  9. Region-specific changes in presynaptic agmatine and glutamate levels in the aged rat brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Y; Liu, P; Leitch, B

    2016-01-15

    During the normal aging process, the brain undergoes a range of biochemical and structural alterations, which may contribute to deterioration of sensory and cognitive functions. Age-related deficits are associated with altered efficacy of synaptic neurotransmission. Emerging evidence indicates that levels of agmatine, a putative neurotransmitter in the mammalian brain, are altered in a region-specific manner during the aging process. The gross tissue content of agmatine in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) of aged rat brains is decreased whereas levels in the temporal cortex (TE) are increased. However, it is not known whether these changes in gross tissue levels are also mirrored by changes in agmatine levels at synapses and thus could potentially contribute to altered synaptic function with age. In the present study, agmatine levels in presynaptic terminals in the PFC and TE regions (300 terminals/region) of young (3month; n=3) and aged (24month; n=3) brains of male Sprague-Dawley rats were compared using quantitative post-embedding immunogold electron-microscopy. Presynaptic levels of agmatine were significantly increased in the TE region (60%; pagmatine and glutamate were co-localized in the same synaptic terminals, and quantitative analyses revealed significantly reduced glutamate levels in agmatine-immunopositive synaptic terminals in both regions in aged rats compared to young animals. This study, for the first time, demonstrates differential effects of aging on agmatine and glutamate in the presynaptic terminals of PFC and TE. Future research is required to understand the functional significance of these changes and the underlying mechanisms. Copyright © 2015 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The condition and the dynamics of changes of regional energetic safety level

    OpenAIRE

    Anatoliy Myzin; Aleksey Kalina; Andrey Kozitsyn; Pavel Pykhov

    2006-01-01

    On the basis of indicative analysis method use, the dynamic processes of changes of energetic safety condition of federal districts and subjects of Russian Federation for last 5 years are investigated. The results of diagnosing safety levels for separate indicators, their blocks and the results of situation evaluation as a whole are discussed. The comparison of regions’ energetic safety condition is given, the causes of crisis situations appearance are discovered, and on this basis the sugg...

  11. Monitoring lake level changes by altimetry in the arid region of Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y.; Liao, J. J.; Shen, G. Z.; Zhang, X. L.

    2017-07-01

    The study of lake level changes in arid region of Central Asia not only has important significance for the management and sustainable development of inland water resources, but also provides the basis for further study on the response of lakes to climate change and human activities. Therefore, in this paper, eleven typical lakes in Central Asia were observed. The lake edges were obtained through image interpretation using the quasi-synchronous MODIS image, and then water level information with long period (2002-2015) was acquired using ENVISAT/RA-2 and Cryosat-2 satellite borne radar altimeter data. The results show that these 11 lakes all have obvious seasonal changes of water level in a year with a high peak at different month. During 2002 - 2015, their water levels present decreased trend generally except Sarygamysh Lake, Alakol Lake and North Aral Sea. The alpine lakes are most stables, while open lakes’ levels change the most violently and closed lakes change diversely among different lakes.

  12. Greenland uplift and regional sea level changes from ICESat observations and GIA modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spada, G.; Ruggieri, G.; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg

    2012-01-01

    ‐resolution GrIS mass balance, we study the time‐variations of various geophysical quantities in response to the current mass loss. They include vertical uplift and subsidence, geoid height variations, global patterns of sea level change (or fingerprints), and regional sea level variations along the coasts...... of Greenland. Long‐wavelength uplifts and gravity variations in response to current or past ice thickness variations are obtained solving the sea level equation, which accounts for both the elastic and the viscoelastic components of deformation. To capture the short‐wavelength components of vertical uplift...... in response to current ice mass loss, which is not resolved by satellite gravity observations, we have specifically developed a high‐resolution regional elastic rebound (ER) model. The elastic component of vertical uplift is combined with estimates of the viscoelastic displacement fields associated...

  13. Technical NoteEarthquake dates and water level changes in wells in the Eskisehir region, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Yuce

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Although satisfactory results have yet to be obtained in earthquake prediction, one of the most common indicators of an anomalous precursor is a change in groundwater level in existing wells. Further wells should thus be drilled in unconfined aquifers since these are more susceptible to seismic waves. The Eskisehir region lies in the transition zone between the Aegean extensional domain and the compressible northern Anatolian block. Limnigraphs, installed in 19 exploration wells in the Eskisehir region, recorded pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic level changes during the earthquakes of 17 August Izmit (Mw= 7.4 and 12 November Duzce (Mw= 7.2 1999 that occurred along the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The Izmit and Duzce earthquakes affected groundwater levels, especially in confined aquifers. The aquifer characteristics before and after the earthquakes were unchanged so the aquifer is elastic in its behaviour. Further detailed geo-mechanical investigation of the confined aquifer in the Eskisehir region may improve understanding of earthquake prediction. Keywords: earthquake prediction, Eskisehir, hydrological warning, monitoring groundwater levels

  14. The Changes of the Human Development on Micro-Regional and Settlement Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katalin Lipták

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to define and estimate the human potential of the settlements in South-Cserehát,, Hungary. The human development index in the classical view can be estimated atmicroregional level with only hard distortions, to which the list of starting indicators differ from the usual indicators, such as GDP and GNI, the life expectancy at birth and the portion of taking part in education. However, the estimating calculations made for defining the human potential in a settlement level should be handled with hard restrictions , at the same time it perfectly shows the formation of the human factor in the region. As a research question the following was defined: In what range has the human potential changed on the basis of the census data and what kind of configuration changes have happened in the South-Cserehát? The aim of the study to attempt to estimate the HDI on settlement level.

  15. Associations between initial change in physical activity level and subsequent change in regional body fat distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ezekwe, Kelechi A; Adegboye, Amanda R A; Gamborg, Michael

    2013-01-01

    examination, while waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured at both follow-ups. RESULTS: Among men, WC increased in the constant active group to a lesser extent than in the non-constant active group (3.4 vs. 4.1 cm; p = 0.03) concerning leisure time physical activities (LTPA......). A similar pattern was observed for both WC and HC in relation to occupational physical activities (OPA) (p = 0.02). Among women, the results went in the same direction for LTPA, whereas the associations with OPA were in the opposite direction (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: LTPA and OPA were associated......BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined which lifestyle factors relate to the development of fat distribution. Therefore, the identification of the determinants of changes in fat deposition is highly relevant. METHODS: The association between the change in physical activity (PA) and the subsequent...

  16. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

  17. Region specific changes in nonapeptide levels during client fish interactions with allopatric and sympatric cleaner fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Marta C; Cardoso, Sónia C; Mazzei, Renata; André, Gonçalo I; Morais, Marta; Gozdowska, Magdalena; Kalamarz-Kubiak, Hanna; Kulczykowska, Ewa

    2017-01-01

    Social relationships are crucially dependent on individual ability to learn and remember ecologically relevant cues. However, the way animals recognize cues before engaging in any social interaction and how their response is regulated by brain neuromodulators remains unclear. We examined the putative involvement of arginine vasotocin (AVT) and isotocin (IT), acting at different brain regions, during fish decision-making in the context of cooperation, by trying to identify how fish distinguish and recognize the value of other social partners or species. We hypothesized that the behavioural responses of cleaner fish clients to different social contexts would be underlain by changes in brain AVT and IT levels. We have found that changes in AVT at the level of forebrain and optic tectum are linked with a response to allopatric cleaners (novel or unfamiliar stimuli) while those at cerebellum are associated with the willingness to be cleaned (in response to sympatric cleaners). On the other hand, higher brain IT levels that were solely found in the diencephalon, also in response to allopatric cleaners. Our results are the first to implicate these nonapeptides, AVT in particular, in the assessment of social cues which enable fish to engage in mutualistic activities.

  18. Modelling regional sea-level changes in recent past and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.

    2012-01-01

    Sea-level change is one of the most important consequences of a warming climate, affecting many densely populated coastal communities. To improve coastal management and the planning of flood defences, information on the future development of sea-level rise is needed. However, sea-level rise is not

  19. The Regional Entrepreneurial Transformation Process—A Mid-Level Framework for Describing and Fostering Socioeconomic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Rüdiger Lange

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a conceptual framework for the socioeconomic transition of regions. It was developed in and for the region of Lusatia, which faces the challenge of becoming more entrepreneurial in order to maintain and regain economic strength. Based on theories of entrepreneurial ecosystems and structuration as well as on extensive practical experience, a mid-level framework for describing and fostering regional change is derived.

  20. Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

    2017-03-01

    Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

  1. THE CONDITION AND THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGES OF REGIONAL ENERGETIC SAFETY LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.L. Myzin

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of indicative analysis method use, the dynamic processes of changes of energetic safety condition of federal districts and subjects of Russian Federation for last 5 years are investigated. The results of diagnosing safety levels for separate indicators, their blocks and the results of situation evaluation as a whole are discussed. The comparison of regions’ energetic safety condition is given, the causes of crisis situations appearance are discovered, and on this basis the suggestions for regions’ safety levels increasing are formulated.

  2. A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lung, T.; Lavalle, C.; Hiederer, R.; Dosio, A.; Bouwer, L.M.

    2013-01-01

    To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at

  3. Data-adaptive harmonic analysis and prediction of sea level change in North Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondrashov, D. A.; Chekroun, M.

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to characterize North Atlantic sea level variability across the temporal and spatial scales. We apply recently developed data-adaptive Harmonic Decomposition (DAH) and Multilayer Stuart-Landau Models (MSLM) stochastic modeling techniques [Chekroun and Kondrashov, 2017] to monthly 1993-2017 dataset of Combined TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2/OSTM altimetry fields over North Atlantic region. The key numerical feature of the DAH relies on the eigendecomposition of a matrix constructed from time-lagged spatial cross-correlations. In particular, eigenmodes form an orthogonal set of oscillating data-adaptive harmonic modes (DAHMs) that come in pairs and in exact phase quadrature for a given temporal frequency. Furthermore, the pairs of data-adaptive harmonic coefficients (DAHCs), obtained by projecting the dataset onto associated DAHMs, can be very efficiently modeled by a universal parametric family of simple nonlinear stochastic models - coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators stacked per frequency, and synchronized across different frequencies by the stochastic forcing. Despite the short record of altimetry dataset, developed DAH-MSLM model provides for skillful prediction of key dynamical and statistical features of sea level variability. References M. D. Chekroun and D. Kondrashov, Data-adaptive harmonic spectra and multilayer Stuart-Landau models. HAL preprint, 2017, https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01537797

  4. Party Organizational Change: Formal Distribution of Power between National and Regional Levels in Italian Political Parties (1991-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Calossi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last 20 years an increasing number of scholars have centred their attention on the relationships between party national structures and party sub-national branches. A relevant part of the specialized literature has interpreted party change as the by-product of the denationalization of party politics. The aim of this contribution is to investigate to what extent eight relevant Italian parties have followed patterns of organizational change, after the reforms of the municipal, provincial and regional election sys-tems; and the process of devolution of administrative powers begun during the Nineties. By focusing on two analytical dimensions (the level of involvement and the level of autonomy of party regional units, we analyse diachronically continuity and change in party formal organization, through an in-depth analysis of the statutes adopted from 1992 to 2012

  5. Methanol extract of Nigella sativa seed induces changes in the levels of neurotransmitter amino acids in male rat brain regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Naggar, Tarek; Carretero, María Emilia; Arce, Carmen; Gómez-Serranillos, María Pilar

    2017-12-01

    Nigella sativa L. (Ranunculaceae) (NS) has been used for medicinal and culinary purposes. Different parts of the plant are used to treat many disorders. This study investigates the effects of NS methanol extract on brain neurotransmitter amino acid levels. We measured the changes in aspartate, glutamate, glycine and γ-aminobutyric acid in five brain regions of male Wistar rats after methanol extract treatment. Animals were injected intraperitoneally with saline solution (controls) or NS methanol extract (equivalent of 2.5 g/kg body weight) and sacrificed 1 h later or after administering 1 daily dose for 8 days. The neurotransmitters were measured in the hypothalamus, cortex, striatum, hippocampus and thalamus by HPLC. Results showed significant changes in amino acids compared to basal values. Glutamate increased significantly (16-36%) in the regions analyzed except the striatum. Aspartate in the hypothalamus (50 and 76%) and glycine in hippocampus (32 and 25%), thalamus (66 and 29%) and striatum (75 and 48%) also increased with the two treatment intervals. γ-Aminobutyric acid significantly increased in the hippocampus (38 and 32%) and thalamus (22 and 40%) but decreased in the cortex and hypothalamus although in striatum only after eight days of treatment (24%). Our results suggest that injected methanol extract modifies amino acid levels in the rat brain regions. These results could be of interest since some neurodegenerative diseases are related to amino acid level imbalances in the central nervous system, suggesting the prospect for therapeutic use of NS against these disorders.

  6. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ Agencies. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR...COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2-20 contingent probabilities given their dependence on non-probabilistic emissions futures, have extended the ranges of...flood risk provides confidence in the associated projection as a true minimum value for risk management purposes. The contemporary rate observed by

  7. How sea level change mediates genetic divergence in coastal species across regions with varying tectonic and sediment processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolby, Greer A; Ellingson, Ryan A; Findley, Lloyd T; Jacobs, David K

    2018-02-01

    Plate tectonics and sediment processes control regional continental shelf topography. We examine the genetic consequences of how glacial-associated sea level change interacted with variable nearshore topography since the last glaciation. We reconstructed the size and distribution of areas suitable for tidal estuary formation from the last glacial maximum, ~20 thousand years ago, to present from San Francisco, California, USA (~38°N) to Reforma, Sinaloa, Mexico (~25°N). We assessed range-wide genetic structure and diversity of three codistributed tidal estuarine fishes (California Killifish, Shadow Goby, Longjaw Mudsucker) along ~4,600 km using mitochondrial control region and cytB sequence, and 16-20 microsatellite loci from a total of 524 individuals. Results show that glacial-associated sea level change limited estuarine habitat to few, widely separated refugia at glacial lowstand, and present-day genetic clades were sourced from specific refugia. Habitat increased during postglacial sea level rise and refugial populations admixed in newly formed habitats. Continental shelves with active tectonics and/or low sediment supply were steep and hosted fewer, smaller refugia with more genetically differentiated populations than on broader shelves. Approximate Bayesian computation favoured the refuge-recolonization scenarios from habitat models over isolation by distance and seaway alternatives, indicating isolation at lowstand is a major diversification mechanism among these estuarine (and perhaps other) coastal species. Because sea level change is a global phenomenon, we suggest this top-down physical control of extirpation-isolation-recolonization may be an important driver of genetic diversification in coastal taxa inhabiting other topographically complex coasts globally during the Mid- to Late Pleistocene and deeper timescales. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Regional, holocene records of the human dimension of global change: sea-level and land-use change in prehistoric Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sluyter, Andrew

    1997-02-01

    Regional, Holocene records hold particular relevance for understanding the reciprocal nature of global environmental change and one of its major human dimensions: "sustainable agriculture", i.e., food production strategies which entail fewer causes of and are less susceptible to environmental change. In an epoch of accelerating anthropogenic transformation, those records reveal the protracted regional causes and consequences of change (often agricultural) in the global system as well as informing models of prehistoric, intensive agriculture which, because of long tenures and high productivities, suggest strategies for sustainable agricultural in the present. This study employs physiographic analysis and the palynological, geochemical record from cores of basin fill to understand the reciprocal relation between environmental and land-use change in the Gulf of Mexico tropical lowland, focusing on a coastal basin sensitive to sea-level change and containing vestiges of prehistoric settlement and wetland agriculture. Fossil pollen reveals that the debut of maize cultivation in the Laguna Catarina watershed dates to ca. 4100 BC, predating the earliest evidence for that cultivar anywhere else in the lowlands of Middle America. Such an early date for a cultivar so central to Neotropical agroecology and environmental change, suggests the urgency of further research in the study region. Moreover, the longest period of continuous agriculture in the basin lasted nearly three millennia (ca. 2400 BC-AD 550) despite eustatic sea-level rise. Geochemical fluxes reveal the reciprocity between land-use and environmental change: slope destabilization, basin aggradation, and eutrophication. The consequent theoretical implications pertain to both applied and basic research. Redeploying ancient agroecologies in dynamic environments necessitates reconstructing the changing operational contexts of putative high productivity and sustainability. Adjusting land use in the face of global

  9. Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert

    2007-01-01

    Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold

  10. Modeling framework for estimating impacts of climate change on electricity demand at regional level: Case of Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirasgedis, S.; Sarafidis, Y.; Georgopoulou, E.; Kotroni, V.; Lagouvardos, K.; Lalas, D.P.

    2007-01-01

    This paper focuses on the potential upcoming impacts of climate change in the 21st century on electricity demand at regional/national levels for regions where topography and location result in large differences in local climate. To address this issue, a regional climate model, PRECIS, has been used to predict future climatic conditions under different emissions scenarios (namely A2 and B2 of the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios (SRES)) as an input to a multiple regression model of the sensitivity of electricity demand in the Greek interconnected power system to climate and socio-economic factors. The economic development input to the multiple regression model follows the same storylines of the SRES scenarios upto 2100 and includes sub-scenarios to cover larger and smaller economic development rates. The results of the analysis indicate an increase of the annual electricity demand attributable solely to climate change of 3.6-5.5% under all scenarios examined, most of which results from increased annual variability with substantial increases during the summer period that outweighs moderate declines estimated for the winter period. This becomes more pronounced if inter-annual variability, especially of summer months, is taken into consideration. It was also found that in the long run, economic development will have a strong effect on future electricity demand, thus increasing substantially the total amount of energy consumed for cooling and heating purposes. This substantial increase in energy demand with strong annual variability will lead to the need for inordinate increases of installed capacity, a large percentage of which will be under utilized. Thus, appropriate adaptation strategies (e.g. new investments, interconnections with other power systems, energy saving programmes, etc.) need to be developed at the state level in order to ensure the security of energy supply. (author)

  11. Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Souza Soler, L.; Verburg, P.H.

    2010-01-01

    Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to

  12. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlands, Ian H [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  13. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, Ian H.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the 'regional' - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  14. Absolute sea levels and isostatic changes of the eastern North Sea to central Baltic region during the last 900 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jens Morten; Aagaard, Troels; Binderup, Merete

    2012-01-01

    that ice-cap growth can be faster than ice-cap melting. By comparison with 29 long-term tide gauge measurements of the region we show that the isostatic implications of the sea-level curve are in nearly perfect agreement with Peltier's global isostatic VM2 model (applied by IPCC and PSMSL) and yield a 3...

  15. A subspecies of region crossing change, region freeze crossing change

    OpenAIRE

    Inoue, Ayumu; Shimizu, Ryo

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a local move on a link diagram named a region freeze crossing change which is close to a region crossing change, but not the same. We study similarity and difference between region crossing change and region freeze crossing change.

  16. MOVES regional level sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    The MOVES Regional Level Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to increase understanding of the operations of the MOVES Model in regional emissions analysis and to highlight the following: : the relative sensitivity of selected MOVES Model input paramet...

  17. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  18. Mapping lake level changes using ICESat/GLAS satellite laser altimetry data: a case study in arid regions of central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, JunLi; Fang, Hui; Yang, Liao

    2011-12-01

    Lakes in arid regions of Central Asia act as essential components of regional water cycles, providing sparse but valuable water resource for the fragile ecological environments and human lives. Lakes in Central Asia are sensitive to climate change and human activities, and great changes have been found since 1960s. Mapping and monitoring these inland lakes would improve our understanding of mechanism of lake dynamics and climatic impacts. ICESat/GLAS satellite laser altimetry provides an efficient tool of continuously measuring lake levels in these poorly surveyed remote areas. An automated mapping scheme of lake level changes is developed based on GLAS altimetry products, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of 9 typical lakes in Central Asia are analyzed to validate the level accuracies. The results show that ICESat/GLAS has a good performance of lake level monitoring, whose patterns of level changes are the same as those of field observation, and the max differences between GLAS and field data is 3cm. Based on the results, it is obvious that alpine lakes are increasing greatly in lake levels during 2003-2009 due to climate change, while open lakes with dams and plain endorheic lakes decrease dramatically in water levels due to human activities, which reveals the overexploitation of water resource in Central Asia.

  19. Relative impacts of worldwide tropospheric ozone changes and regional emission modifications on European surface-ozone levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szopa, S.; Hauglustaine, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    Multi-scale models were applied to assess the surface ozone changes in 2030. Several emission scenarios are considered, ranging from (a) a pessimistic anthropogenic emission increase to (b) an optimistic decrease of emissions, and including (c) a realistic scenario that assumes the implementation of control legislations [CLE]. The two extreme scenarios lead respectively to homogeneous global increase and decrease of surface ozone, whereas low and inhomogeneous changes associated with a slight global increase of ozone are found for the CLE scenario. Over western Europe, for the CLE scenario, the benefit of European emission reduction is significantly counterbalanced by increasing global ozone levels. Considering warmer conditions over Europe and future emission modifications, the human health exposure to surface ozone is found to be significantly worsened. (authors)

  20. Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

    2016-05-01

    Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

  1. Osteoprotegerin Levels Decrease During Testosterone Therapy in Aging Men and are Associated with Changed Distribution of Regional Fat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, L; Glintborg, D; Højlund, K

    2013-01-01

    The cardiovascular effects of testosterone treatment are debated. Osteoprotegerin (OPG) is an independent marker of cardiovascular risk. We investigated the effect of testosterone therapy on OPG levels in aging men with low normal bioavailable testosterone levels. A randomized, double......-blinded, placebo-controlled study of 6 months testosterone therapy (gel) in 38 men aged 60-78 years with bioavailable testosterone 94 cm was performed. Clinical evaluation, OPG, and C-reactive protein (CRP) measurements were carried out. Lean body mass (LBM), total fat mass, and bone mineral density (BMD) were...... established by dual X-ray absorptiometry. Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) were measured by magnetic resonance imaging. Power calculation was based on an increase in LBM during testosterone therapy and responders were defined as testosterone treated patients with increased...

  2. Sunda epicontinental shelf and Quaternary glacial-interglacial sea level variation and their implications to the regional and global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soepri Hantoro, Wahyoe

    2018-02-01

    Sunda Epicontinental Shelf occupies a large area between Asia and Indonesian Maritime Continent. This shallow shelf developed soon as stability of this area since Pliocene was achieved. Sedimentation and erosion started, following sea level variation of Milankovitch cycle that changed this area to, partly to entirely become a low lying open land. These changes imply a difference height of about 135 m sea level. Consequence of this changes from shallow sea during interglacial to the exposed low land during glacial period is producing different land cover that might influence to the surrounding area. As the large land surface, this area should be covered by low land tropical forest, savanna to wet coastal plain. This large low-lying land belongs an important river drainage system of South East Asia in the north (Gulf of Thailand) and another system that curved from Malay Peninsula, Sumatra, Bangka-Belitung and Kalimantan, named as Palaeo Sunda River. The total area of this land is about 1 million km2, this must bring consequences to the environmental condition. This change belongs to the global change on which the signal may be sent to a distance, then is preserved as geological formation. Being large and flat land, it has a long and winding river valley so this land influences the life of biota as fauna and flora but also human being that may live or just move on the passing through around East Asia. Global sea level changes through time which is then followed by the change of the area of land or water have indeed influenced the hydrology and carbon cycle balance. Through studying the stratigraphy and geology dynamic, based on seismic images and core samples from drilling work, one can be obtained, the better understanding the environmental change and its impact to the regional but could be global scale.

  3. Water-level altitudes 2015 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2014 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmarek, Mark C.; Ramage, Jason K.; Houston, Natalie A.; Johnson, Michaela R.; Schmidt, Tiffany S.

    2015-01-01

    Most of the land-surface subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction of the aquifer sediments, mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2015 water-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2014–March 2015) for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps depicting 1-year (2014–15) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting approximate contoured 5-year (2010–15) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting approximate contoured long-term (1990–2015 and 1977–2015) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map depicting approximate contoured long-term (2000–15) water-level changes for the Jasper aquifer; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer sites; and graphs depicting measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments at the borehole extensometers during 1973–2014. Three tables listing the water-level data used to construct each water-level map for each aquifer and a table listing the measured cumulative compaction data for each extensometer site and graphs are included.

  4. Sedimentology of middle ordovician carbonates in the Argentine precordillera: evidence of regional relative sea-level changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, M.; Eberlein, S.; Lehnert, O.

    1993-07-01

    The Las Aguaditas Formation in the Argentine Precordillera of San Juan is the only Ordovician carbonate sequence deposited on a slope. Spiculites, mudstones and calcisiltites represent the autochthonous sediments, characterized by a fine lamination, rare fossils and their dark colour. The pelagic fauna consists of rare radiolarians/calcispheres, trinucleid trilobites, graptolites and conodonts. The latter are typical of an open marine environment and proved a Llanvirn—Llandeilo age for the Las Aguaditas Formation. In the upper part of the succession there are several intercalations of megabreccias. Their thickness decreases from about 20 to 4 m towards the top of the formation, accompanied by an increasing amount of carbonate turbidites. The clasts of the breccias are derived from the slope as well as the platform. Each of the megabreccia horizons represents a system of channels, lobes and interchannel deposits, which together form a slope apron. On top of the lower breccia a small biostrome developed, where bryozoans and crinoids are preserved in an autochthonous position. Sedimentation of the Las Aguaditas Formation started with the drowning of the underlying carbonate platform (San Juan limestones). Near the Arenig-Llanvirn boundary, a rapid ecstatic sea-level rise led to the deposition of graptolitic black shales and mudstones. Upwards, allochthonous carbonates become increasingly abundant. The onset of megabreccia deposition coincides with a major relative sea-level fall, caused by block movements in connection with rifting. The subsequent transition from breccia formation towards turbiditic sedimentation corresponds to an environmental shift from the slope towards the toe of slope and basin and marks a renewed moderate sea-level rise.

  5. The west African mangrove: an indicator of sea-level fluctuations and regional climate changes during the last deglaciation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lezine, A.M.

    1996-01-01

    The review of modern and late Quaternary pollen data recording the mangrove evolution in West Africa shows that littoral and deep-sea sediments have registered different signals. The first one gives evidence for past sea-level variations from ca. 12,000 B.P. to ca. 5,000 B.P. The second one records the first widespread response of tropical forest ecosystems to the last deglaciation step and enhanced monsoonal rains at ca. 9,500 B.P. (authors)

  6. Water-level altitudes 2009 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper Aquifers and compaction 1973-2008 in the Chicot and Evangeline Aquifers, Houston-Galveston Region, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmarek, Mark C.; Houston, Natalie A.; Ramage, Jason K.

    2009-01-01

    This report, done in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, the City of Houston, the Fort Bend Subsidence District, and the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports that depicts water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas. The report (excluding appendixes) contains 16 sheets and 15 tables: 3 sheets are maps showing current-year (2009) water-level altitudes for each aquifer, respectively; 3 sheets are maps showing 1-year (2008-09) water-level changes for each aquifer, respectively; 3 sheets are maps showing 5-year (2004-09) water-level changes for each aquifer, respectively; 4 sheets are maps showing long-term (1990-2009 and 1977-2009) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, respectively; 1 sheet is a map showing long-term (2000-2009) water-level change for the Jasper aquifer; 1 sheet is a map showing site locations of borehole extensometers; and 1 sheet comprises graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at the sites from 1973 or later through 2008, respectively. Tables listing the data used to construct the aquifer-data maps and the compaction graphs are included.

  7. The Water Level Fall of Lake Megali Prespa (N Greece): an Indicator of Regional Water Stress Driven by Climate Change and Amplified by Water Extraction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change, with future projections predicting an increase in excessive drought events and declining rainfall. Regional freshwater ecosystems are particularly threatened: precipitation decreases, while extreme droughts increase and human impacts intensify (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Many Mediterranean lake-wetland systems have shrunk or disappeared over the past two decades. Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity and for ensuring sustainable water availability. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of lake-wetland hydrological responses to natural and human-induced changes, which is currently lacking in many parts of the Mediterranean. The interconnected Prespa-Ohrid Lake system is a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism. The unprecedented fall in water level (~8m) of Lake Megali Prespa threatens this system, but causes remain debated. Modelling suggests that the S Balkan will experience rainfall and runoff decreases of ~30% by 2050. However, projections revealing the potential impact of these changes on future lake level are unavailable as lake regime is not understood. A further drop in lake level may have serious consequences. The Prespa Lakes contribute ~25% of the total inflow into Lake Ohrid through underground karst channels; falling lake levels decrease this discharge. Lake Ohrid, in turn, feeds the Drim River. This entire catchment may therefore be affected by falling lake levels; its water resources are of great importance for Greece, Albania, FYROM and Montenegro (e.g. tourism, agriculture, hydro-energy, urban & industrial use). This new work proves that annual water level fluctuations of Lake Megali Prespa are predominantly related to precipitation during the first 7 months (Oct-Apr) of the hydrological year (Oct-Sep). Lake level is very sensitive to regional and

  8. Water-level altitudes 2014 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2013 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmarek, Mark C.; Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.

    2014-01-01

    Most of the land-surface subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction of the aquifer sediments, mostly in the fine-grained clay and silt layers. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains maps depicting approximate 2014 water-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2013–March 2014) for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps depicting 1-year (2013–14) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting contoured 5-year (2009–14) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting contoured long-term (1990–2014 and 1977–2014) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map depicting contoured long-term (2000–14) water-level changes for the Jasper aquifer; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer sites; and graphs depicting measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments at the borehole extensometers during 1973–2013. Tables listing the data used to construct each water-level map for each aquifer and the compaction graphs are included.

  9. Water-level altitudes 2013 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973--2012 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmarek, Mark C.; Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.

    2013-01-01

    Most of the subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction mostly in the clay and silt layers of the aquifer sediments. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains maps depicting approximate water-level altitudes for 2013 (represented by measurements made during December 2012-February 2013) for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps depicting 1-year (2012-13) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting 5-year (2008--13) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting long-term (1990-2013 and 1977-2013) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map depicting long-term (2000-13) water-level changes for the Jasper aquifer; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer sites; and graphs depicting measured compaction of subsurface sediments at the extensometers during 1973-2012. Tables listing the data used to construct each water-level map for each aquifer and the compaction graphs are included.

  10. Water-level altitudes 2012 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2011 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmarek, Mark C.; Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.

    2012-01-01

    Most of the subsidence in the Houston–Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers and caused compaction of the clay layers of the aquifer sediments. This report—prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris– Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District—is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston–Galveston region. The report contains maps showing approximate water-level altitudes for 2012 (calculated from measurements of water levels in wells made during December 2011–February 2012) for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps showing 1-year (2011–12) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing 5-year (2007–12) water-levelaltitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing long-term (1990–2012 and 1977–2012) water-level-altitude changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map showing long-term (2000–12) water-level-altitude change for the Jasper aquifer; a map showing locations of borehole extensometer sites; and graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface sediments at the extensometers from 1973 (or later) through 2011. Tables listing the data that were used to construct each water-level map for each aquifer and the cumulative compaction graphs are included.

  11. Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Gong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

  12. Analyzing Three-Decadal Patterns of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Regional Ecosystem Services at the Landscape Level: Case Study of Two Coastal Metropolitan Regions, Eastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan-Bin Cai

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Rapid urbanization, land scarcity, and accompanying ecological deterioration in China have received growing attention. In this paper, two fast-growing metropolitan regions, Greater Shanghai and Greater Hangzhou, were selected as case studies to quantify the impact of land use/land cover (LULC change on regional ecosystem services value (ESV at the landscape scale since the late 1970s. The results show that in both regions, dramatic LULC change, especially recent land development at the urban fringes, led to a steady decline in the available area of productive agricultural land, natural land and semi-natural land. This consequently caused remarkable landscape fragmentation along the urban-rural gradient as measured by five class-level landscape metrics. It was estimated that in Greater Shanghai, regulating, supporting, provisioning, and cultural ESVs decreased by 32.05%, 17.89%, 53.72%, and 17.06%, respectively. In Greater Hangzhou, these values decreased by 27.82%, 23.86%, 28.62%, and 22.85%, respectively. In addition, the relationship is quantified between zonal buffer-based ESV and class-level landscape metrics. Further analysis shows that spatiotemporal patterns of zonal ESVs along the urban-rural gradient in these two regions exhibited unbalanced patterns of ecological services delivery.

  13. Changing Sea Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, David

    2004-04-01

    Flooding of coastal communities is one of the major causes of environmental disasters world-wide. This textbook explains how sea levels are affected by astronomical tides, weather effects, ocean circulation and climate trends. Based on courses taught by the author in the U.K. and the U.S., it is aimed at undergraduate students at all levels, with non-basic mathematics being confined to Appendices and a website http://publishing.cambridge.org/resources/0521532183/.

  14. Regional Highlights of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Peterson; J.M. Wolken; Teresa Hollingsworth; Christian Giardina; J.S. Littell; Linda Joyce; Chris Swanston; Stephen Handler; Lindsey Rustad; Steve McNulty

    2014-01-01

    Climatic extremes, ecological disturbance, and their interactions are expected to have major effects on ecosystems and social systems in most regions of the United States in the coming decades. In Alaska, where the largest temperature increases have occurred, permafrost is melting, carbon is being released, and fire regimes are changing, leading to a...

  15. Upper Limit for Regional Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2016-04-01

    With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. With probabilistic approach we produce regional sea level projections taking into account large uncertainties associated with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets contribution. We calculate the upper limit (as 95%) for regional sea level projections by 2100 with RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting that for the most coastlines upper limit will exceed the global upper limit of 1.8 m.

  16. Water-level altitudes 2016 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973–2015 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmarek, Mark C.; Ramage, Jason K.; Johnson, Michaela R.

    2016-10-07

    Most of the land-surface subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction of the aquifer sediments, mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2016 water-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2015–March 2016) for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps depicting 1-year (2015–16) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting approximate contoured 5-year (2011–16) water-level changes for each aquifer; maps depicting approximate contoured long-term (1990–2016 and 1977–2016) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map depicting approximate contoured long-term (2000–16) water-level changes for the Jasper aquifer; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer sites; and graphs depicting measured long-term cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments at the extensometers during 1973–2015. Tables listing the water-level data used to construct each water-level map for each aquifer and the measured long-term cumulative compaction data for each extensometer site are included. Graphs depicting water-level measurement data also are included; these graphs can be used to approximate

  17. World Regionalization of Climate Change(1961–2010)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peijun; Shi; Shao; Sun; Daoyi; Gong; Tao; Zhou

    2016-01-01

    Traditional climate classification or regionalization characterizes the mean state of climate condition, which cannot meet the demand of addressing climate change currently. We have developed a climate change classification method, as well as the fundamental principles, an indicator system, and mapping techniques of climate change regionalization. This study used annual mean temperature and total precipitation as climatic indices, and linear trend and variation change as change indices to characterize climate change quantitatively. The study has proposed a scheme for world climate change regionalization based on a half century of climate data(1961–2010). Level-I regionalization divides the world into 12 tendency zones based on the linear trend of climate, level-II regionalization resulted in 28 fluctuation regions based on the variation change of climate. Climate change regionalization provides a scientific basis for countries and regions to develop plans for adapting to climate change, especially for managing climate-related disaster or environmental risks.

  18. Water-level altitudes 2017 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper Aquifers and compaction 1973–2016 in the Chicot and Evangeline Aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmarek, Mark C.; Ramage, Jason K.

    2017-08-16

    Most of the land-surface subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction of the aquifer sediments, mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. This report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2017 water-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2016 through March 2017) and long-term water-level changes for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer (hereinafter referred to as “extensometer”) sites; and graphs depicting measured long-term cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments at the extensometers during 1973–2016.In 2017, water-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet (ft) below the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter referred to as “datum”) in two localized areas in southwestern and northwestern Harris County to 200 ft above datum in west-central Montgomery County. The largest water-level-altitude decline (120 ft) depicted by the 1977–2017 water-level-change contours for the Chicot aquifer was in northwestern Harris County. A broad area where water-level altitudes declined in the Chicot aquifer extends from northwestern, north-central, and southwestern Harris County

  19. Water-level altitudes 2010 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2009 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmarek, Mark C.; Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.

    2010-01-01

    Most of the subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers causing compaction of the clay layers of the aquifer sediments. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, and Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains maps showing 2010 water-level altitudes for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, respectively; maps showing 1-year (2009-10) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing 5-year (2005-10) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing long-term (1990-2010 and 1977-2010) water-level-altitude changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map showing long-term (2000-10) water-level-altitude change for the Jasper aquifer; a map showing locations of borehole extensometer sites; and graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at the extensometers from 1973, or later, through 2009. Tables listing the data used to construct each aquifer-data map and the compaction graphs are included. Water levels in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers were measured during December 2009-March 2010. In 2010, water-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 or North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter, datum) in a small area in southwestern Harris County to 200 feet above datum in central to southwestern Montgomery County. Water-level-altitude changes in the Chicot aquifer ranged from a 49-foot decline to a 67

  20. Water-level altitudes 2011 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2010 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.; Kasmarek, Mark C.

    2011-01-01

    Most of the subsidence in the Houston–Galveston region has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers causing compaction of the clay layers of the aquifer sediments. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Harris–Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, and Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston–Galveston region. The report contains maps showing 2011 water-level altitudes for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps showing 1-year (2010–11) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing 5-year (2006–11) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing long-term (1990–2011 and 1977–2011) water-level-altitude changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map showing long-term (2000–11) water-level-altitude change for the Jasper aquifer; a map showing locations of borehole extensometer sites; and graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at the extensometers from 1973, or later, through 2010. Tables listing the data used to construct each aquifer-data map and the compaction graphs are included.Water levels in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers were measured during December 2010–February 2011. In 2011, water-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet below North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter, datum) in a small area in southwestern Harris County to 200 feet above datum in central to southwestern Montgomery County. Water-level-altitude changes in the Chicot aquifer ranged from a 40-foot decline to a 33-foot rise (2010–11), from a 10-foot

  1. Estimate at the nucleotide resolution level of genetic changes in the humans residing in the ecologically unfavourable regions of the Techa river

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sojfer, V.N.; Petrova, N.V.; Timofeeva, O.A.; Filipenko, M.L.; Solov'eva, N.A.; Popovskij, A.V.; Vlasko, V.V.

    1998-01-01

    To study DNA at the nucleotide level of resolution in residents of settlements located along the Techa river, studies are performed by direct sequencing of gene sequences preliminary amplified and selected by means of analysis of changes of the conformation of DNA unifilament fragments (SSCP-method). Results are presented in details [ru

  2. Regional Price Levels in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Musil

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available International comparison belongs to statistical topics which attracts either experts or general public. Official statistics provides estimates of national price levels only. Therefore, official regional analysis is based on national price levels and does not take into account potential differences in prices among regions within a country. Fortunately, researchers have been dealing with them and estimates for several countries are available. The topic is also important in the Czech Republic even two papers focused on regional price levels were published in Statistika journal in 2016. The aim of the paper is to compare both approaches from various perspectives.

  3. MOVES2010a regional level sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-10

    This document discusses the sensitivity of various input parameter effects on emission rates using the US Environmental Protection Agencys (EPAs) MOVES2010a model at the regional level. Pollutants included in the study are carbon monoxide (CO),...

  4. Ambient noise levels in the Taiwan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, W.; Liu, C.; Chen, R.; Huang, B.; Wu, F. T.; Wang, C.

    2008-12-01

    To characterize the island-wide background seismic noise in Taiwan, we estimate the power spectral density (PSD) at broadband stations of both the BATS (Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology) and the TAIGER experiment (Apr. 2006~Apr. 2008) for periods ranging from ~0.2 to 100 seconds. A new approach to calculate the probability density functions of noise power (PDFs, MaNamara and Buland, 2004) is used in this study. The results indicate that the cultural noise at higher frequencies is significant at populated area, which shows diurnal and weekly variation as what we expected. The noise power for microseisms centered at a period of ~5 seconds around the western costal plain show ~20dB higher than what observed at eastern Taiwan. This observation supports the inference that the coastal regions having narrow shelf with irregular coastlines are know to be especially efficient at radiating the predominat microseisms. Results from the linear array across central Taiwan demonstrate that the average noise power is quietest at the eastern Central Range. We have mapped the PDF mode for stations at various periods to see the spatial distribution of ambient noise levels, which could be used as the basic information for future station siting. Temporal variation of noise PSD is also present to provide a quantitative description of the seismic data quality collected by both BATS and TAIGER experiment. Some operational problems like base tilt, sensitivity change can be identified easily as well.

  5. Regional level approach for increasing energy efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viholainen, Juha; Luoranen, Mika; Väisänen, Sanni; Niskanen, Antti; Horttanainen, Mika; Soukka, Risto

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive snapshot of regional energy system for decision makers. • Connecting regional sustainability targets and energy planning. • Involving local players in energy planning. - Abstract: Actions for increasing the renewable share in the energy supply and improving both production and end-use energy efficiency are often built into the regional level sustainability targets. Because of this, many local stakeholders such as local governments, energy producers and distributors, industry, and public and private sector operators require information on the current state and development aspects of the regional energy efficiency. The drawback is that an overall view on the focal energy system operators, their energy interests, and future energy service needs in the region is often not available for the stakeholders. To support the local energy planning and management of the regional energy services, an approach for increasing the regional energy efficiency is being introduced. The presented approach can be seen as a solid framework for gathering the required data for energy efficiency analysis and also evaluating the energy system development, planned improvement actions, and the required energy services at the region. This study defines the theoretical structure of the energy efficiency approach and the required steps for revealing such energy system improvement actions that support the regional energy plan. To demonstrate the use of the approach, a case study of a Finnish small-town of Lohja is presented. In the case example, possible actions linked to the regional energy targets were evaluated with energy efficiency analysis. The results of the case example are system specific, but the conducted study can be seen as a justified example of generating easily attainable and transparent information on the impacts of different improvement actions on the regional energy system.

  6. Climatic change impacts in Lombardia region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiorese, G.; Gatto, M.; De Leo, G.

    2008-01-01

    Climatic change will change significantly our Country through impacts of natural and physical systems, on human health and the productive sectors. This article describes the expected impacts in Lombardia region [it

  7. 60Co levels in the seawater regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshioka, Mitsuo

    1983-01-01

    In order to assess the contribution from nuclear power facilities to the 60 Co levels in seawater regions, it is essential to grasp the background values of 60 Co. The following matters are described: 60 Co sources and the respective inputs; nuclear test fallout and nuclear power plants; the 60 Co levels in overseas countries; the 60 Co levels in Japan; the 60 Co levels from nuclear power plants in Fukui prefecture. In the seawater regions around Japan, there have been numerous instances of 60 Co detection; several pCi/kg of dry earth in sea bottom earth and about 1 pCi/kg of raw material in marine life can be considered as the background levels due to nuclear test fallout and nuclear-powered submarines. In the seawater regions of Fukui prefecture, the 60 Co levels appreciably exceeded the above background due to the nuclear power plants, which are insignificant concerning the radiation exposure of the local people. (Mori, K.)

  8. Single season changes in resting state network power and the connectivity between regions distinguish head impact exposure level in high school and youth football players

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murugesan, Gowtham; Saghafi, Behrouz; Davenport, Elizabeth; Wagner, Ben; Urban, Jillian; Kelley, Mireille; Jones, Derek; Powers, Alex; Whitlow, Christopher; Stitzel, Joel; Maldjian, Joseph; Montillo, Albert

    2018-02-01

    The effect of repetitive sub-concussive head impact exposure in contact sports like American football on brain health is poorly understood, especially in the understudied populations of youth and high school players. These players, aged 9-18 years old may be particularly susceptible to impact exposure as their brains are undergoing rapid maturation. This study helps fill the void by quantifying the association between head impact exposure and functional connectivity, an important aspect of brain health measurable via resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI). The contributions of this paper are three fold. First, the data from two separate studies (youth and high school) are combined to form a high-powered analysis with 60 players. These players experience head acceleration within overlapping impact exposure making their combination particularly appropriate. Second, multiple features are extracted from rs-fMRI and tested for their association with impact exposure. One type of feature is the power spectral density decomposition of intrinsic, spatially distributed networks extracted via independent components analysis (ICA). Another feature type is the functional connectivity between brain regions known often associated with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Third, multiple supervised machine learning algorithms are evaluated for their stability and predictive accuracy in a low bias, nested cross-validation modeling framework. Each classifier predicts whether a player sustained low or high levels of head impact exposure. The nested cross validation reveals similarly high classification performance across the feature types, and the Support Vector, Extremely randomized trees, and Gradboost classifiers achieve F1-score up to 75%.

  9. Geospatial compilation of historical water-level changes in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers 1977-2013 and Jasper aquifer 2000-13, Gulf Coast aquifer system, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Michaela R.; Linard, Joshua I.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District has produced an annual series of reports that depict water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, from 1977 to 2013. Changes are determined from water-level measurements between December and March of each year from groundwater wells screened in one of the three aquifers. Existing published maps and unpublished geographic information system (GIS) datasets were compiled into a comprehensive geodatabase of all water-level-change maps produced as part of this multiagency effort. Annual water-level-change maps were georeferenced and digitized where existing GIS data were unavailable (1979–99). Existing GIS data available for 2000–13 were included in the geodatabase. The compilation contains 121 datasets showing water-level changes for each primary aquifer of the Gulf Coast aquifer system: 56 for the Chicot aquifer (1977; 1979–2013 and 1990; 1993–2013), 56 for the Evangeline aquifer (1977; 1979–2013 and 1990; 1993–2013), and 9 for the Jasper aquifer (2000; 2005–13).

  10. Wind speed change regionalization in China (1961–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pei-Jun Shi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This research quantitatively recognized the wind speed change using wind speed trend and trend of wind speed variability from 1961 to 2012 and regionalized the wind speed change on a county-level basis. The mean wind speed observation data and linear fitting method were used. The findings suggested that level-I regionalization includes six zones according to wind speed trend value in different regions, viz. Northeast China–North China substantial declining zone, East–Central China declining zone, Southeast China slightly declining zone, Southwest China very slightly declining zone, Northwest China declining zone, and Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau slightly declining zone. Level-II regionalization divides China into twelve regions based on trend of wind speed variability and the level-I regionalization results.

  11. Leadership and Change in Sustainable Regional Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sotarauta, M.; Horlings, L.G.; Liddle, J.

    2012-01-01

    This book shows, first of all, that leadership plays a crucial role in reinventing regions and branching out from an old path to something new in order to create more balanced and sustainable regional development. Second, it maintains that leadership is not a solo but a multi-agent and -level

  12. Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giorgi, F.; Meleux, F.

    2007-01-01

    The life cycle of pollutants is affected by chemical as well as meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation. Therefore, climatic changes induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may be expected to have significant effects on air quality. Because of the spatial variability of the pollutant emissions and climate-change signals, these effects are particularly relevant at the regional to local scales. This paper first briefly reviews modelling tools and methodologies used to study regional climate-change impacts on air quality. Patterns of regional precipitation, temperature, and sea-level changes emerging from the latest set of general circulation model projections are then discussed. Finally, the specific case of climate-change effects on summer ozone concentrations over Europe is presented to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on pollutant amounts. It is concluded that climate change is an important factor that needs to be taken into account when designing future pollution-reduction policies. (authors)

  13. Hydrological implications of land-cover and land-use change: a proposal for spatial analysis at a regional level in the closed Cuitzeo-lake basin, Michoacán

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Mendoza

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This study was undertaken to understand the implications of regional land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC in a spatially distributed water balance (SDWB within a poorly gauged basin in 1975 and 2000. Results from this work were derived by integrating remote sensing and geographic information system tools with a water-balance model, along with the application of a transitional matrix analysis. The analysis of changes in water-balance components, based on landforms and transitional matrices, indicated a small tendency towards improvement in the basin's hydrological conditions at a regional level. However, as a consequence of the increase in urban land-use, the basin's plains piedmonts showed a rice in runoff. In addition, the basins' lower areas exhibited a high demand for water resources due to an increased urban land-use in both years, along with the Cuitzeo lake degradation, particularly in terms of pollution and reduction of surface water inflow. The integrated approach used herein constitutes a viable alternative for understanding changes in the amount and spatial distribution of water available in poorly gauged water basins as a consequence of LCLUC.

  14. Eustatic and Relative Sea Level Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Stocchi, P.; Vacchi, M.

    2016-01-01

    Sea level changes can be driven by either variationsin the masses or volume of the oceans, or bychanges of the land with respect to the sea surface. Inthe first case, a sea level change is defined ‘eustatic’;otherwise, it is defined ‘relative’. Several techniques canbe used to observe changes in sea

  15. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  16. Holocene Sea-Level Database For The Caribbean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, N. S.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Scatena, F. N.; Vane, C. H.; Liu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) records from far-field locations are important for understanding the driving mechanisms controlling the nature and timing of the mid-late Holocene reduction in global meltwaters and providing background rates of late Holocene RSL change with which to compare the magnitude of 20th century RSL rise. The Caribbean region has traditionally been considered far-field (i.e., with negligible glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) influence), although recent investigations indicate otherwise. Here, we consider the spatial variability in glacio-isostatic, tectonic and local contributions on RSL records from the circum-Caribbean region to infer a Holocene eustatic sea-level signal. We have constructed a database of quality-controlled, spatially comprehensive, Holocene RSL observations for the circum-Caribbean region. The database contains over 500 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space. The database incorporates sea-level observations from a latitudinal range of 5°N to 25°N and longitudinal range of 55°W to 90°W. We include sea-level observations from 11 ka BP to present, although the majority of the index points in the database are younger than 8 ka BP. The database is sub-divided into 13 regions based on the distance from the former Laurentide Ice Sheet and regional tectonic setting. The index points were primarily derived from mangrove peat deposits, which in the Caribbean form in the upper half of the tidal range, and corals (predominantly Acropora palmata), the growth of which is constrained to the upper 5 m of water depth. The index points are classified on the basis of their susceptibility to compaction (e.g., intercalated, basal). The influence of temporal changes in tidal range on index points is also considered. The sea-level reconstructions demonstrate that RSL did not exceed the present height (0 m) during the Holocene in the majority of locations, except at sites in Suriname/Guayana and possibly Trinidad

  17. Level IV Ecoregions of EPA Region 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  18. Level III Ecoregions of EPA Region 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  19. Level IV Ecoregions of EPA Region 5

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  20. Level IV Ecoregions of EPA Region 10

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  1. Level IV Ecoregions of EPA Region 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  2. Level IV Ecoregions of EPA Region 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  3. Level III Ecoregions of EPA Region 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  4. Level III Ecoregions of EPA Region 4

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  5. Level III Ecoregions of EPA Region 8

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions for EPA Administrative Regions were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the...

  6. Level IV Ecoregions of EPA Region 7

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  7. Level IV Ecoregions of EPA Region 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  8. Level IV Ecoregions of EPA Region 8

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions for EPA Administrative Regions were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the...

  9. Level III Ecoregions of EPA Region 10

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  10. Level IV Ecoregions of EPA Region 4

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  11. Level IV Ecoregions of EPA Region 9

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions for EPA Administrative Regions were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the...

  12. Level III Ecoregions of EPA Region 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  13. Level III Ecoregions of EPA Region 9

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions for EPA Administrative Regions were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the...

  14. Level III Ecoregions of EPA Region 7

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  15. Level III Ecoregions of EPA Region 5

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  16. Level III Ecoregions of EPA Region 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Ecoregions by EPA region were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality,...

  17. Regional climate change for the Pacific Northwest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, G.A.; Thomas, G.

    1991-01-01

    The Pacific Northwest climate is dominated by topography and the Pacific Ocean; the forests have become adapted to the present climate. Within short distances there are large changes in precipitation and temperature, with resultant changes in ecosystems. As the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, global climate is expected to warm and precipitation to increase. Global climate model simulations show enhanced warming at high northern latitudes. For the Pacific Northwest, models show 2-6 degree C warming and increased precipitation in the winter for doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration. However, the regional details of these models are presently not very reliable. The results and limitations of present global climate models are reviewed. The roles of the oceans, clouds, and other feedback mechanisms are described along with some of the possible impacts of climate change on forest resources. 24 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  18. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  19. Impact of Geological Changes on Regional and Global Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova; Baranov, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    Periods of geological changes such as super continent cycle (300-500 million years), Wilson's cycles (300-900 million years), magmatic-tectonic cycle (150-200 million years), and cycles with smaller periods (22, 100, 1000 years) lead to a basic contradiction preventing forming methodology of the study of impact of geological changes on the global and regional economies. The reason of this contradiction is the differences of theoretical and methodological aspects of the Earth science and economics such as different time scales and accuracy of geological changes. At the present the geological models cannot provide accurate estimation of time and place where geological changes (strong earthquakes, volcanos) are expected. Places of feature (not next) catastrophic events are the only thing we have known. Thus, it is impossible to use the periodicity to estimate both geological changes and their consequences. Taking into accounts these factors we suggested a collection of concepts for estimating impact of possible geological changes on regional and global economies. We illustrated our approach by example of estimating impact of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 on regional and global economies. Based on this example we concluded that globalization processes increase an impact of geological changes on regional and global levels. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 16-06-00056, 16-32-00019, 16-05-00263A).

  20. A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the

  1. Radiation levels in the SSC interaction regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groom, D.E. [ed.

    1988-06-10

    The radiation environment in a typical SSC detector has been evaluated using the best available particle production models coupled with Monte Carlo simulations of hadronic and electromagnetic cascades. The problems studied include direct charged particle dose, dose inside a calorimeter from the cascades produced by incident photons and hadrons, the flux of neutrons and photons backscattered from the calorimeter into a central cavity, and neutron flux in the calorimeter. The luminosity lifetime at the SSC is dominated by collision losses in the interaction regions, where the luminosity is equivalent to losing an entire full-energy proton beam into the apparatus every six days. The result of an average p-p collision can be described quite simply. The mean charged multiplicity is about 110, and the particles are distributed nearly uniformly in pseudorapidity ({eta}) over all the angles of interest. The transverse momentum distribution is independent of angle, and for our purposes may be written as p{perpendicular}exp(-p{perpendicular}/{beta}). The mean value of p{perpendicular} may be as high as 0.6 GeV/c. Most of the radiation is produced by the very abundant low-p{perpendicular} particles. The dose or neutron fluence produced by individual particles in this energy region are simulated over a wide variety of conditions, and several measurements serve to confirm the simulation results. In general, the response (a dose, fluence, the number of backscattered neutrons, etc.) for an incident particle of momentum p can be parameterized in the form Np{sup {alpha}}, where 0.5 < {alpha}< 1.0. The authors believe most of their results to be accurate to within a factor of two or three, sufficiently precise to serve as the basis for detailed designs.

  2. Regional climate change strategies and initiatives

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Archer, Emma RM

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available of stabilising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would inhibit human-induced global warming and climate change. More recently, all 15 member states have signed the Paris Agreement, which aims to reduce GHG emissions in order to limit global... (but are not limited to) feed-in tariffs for renewable energy; removal of fossil fuel subsidies; “polluter pays” and “user pays” taxes; as well as discussions around green market incentivisation (very much an emerging conversation). These obviously...

  3. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  4. Sea Level Changes: Determination and Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, P. L.; Pugh, D. T.; DeRonde, J. G.; Warrick, R. G.; Hannah, J.

    The measurement of sea level is of fundamental importance to a wide range of research in climatology, oceanography, geology and geodesy. This volume attempts to cover many aspects of the field. The volume opens with a description by Bolduc and Murty of one of the products stemming from the development of tide gauge networks in the northern and tropical Atlantic. This work is relevant to the growth of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), the main goal of which is to provide the world with an efficient, coherent sea level monitoring system for océanographie and climatological research. The subsequent four papers present results from the analysis of existing tide gauge data, including those datasets available from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and the TOGA Sea Level Center. Two of the four, by Wroblewski and by Pasaric and Orlic, are concerned with European sea level changes, while Yu Jiye et al. discuss inter-annual changes in the Pacific, and Wang Baocan et al. describe variability in the Changjiang estuary in China. The papers by El- Abd and A wad, on Red Sea levels, are the only contributions to the volume from the large research community of geologists concerned with sea level changes.

  5. Implications of climate change in the ROPME region: an overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hassan, M.E.; Gerges, M.A.

    1994-12-31

    The Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) region is divided into three areas: SA-I, the northern part of the Arabian Sea bounded by the south coast of the Sultanate of Oman, the mouth of the Gulf of Oman and the southern coast of the Islamic Republic of Iran; SA-II, the Gulf of Oman; and SA-III named as the Persian or Arabian Gulf. SA-I is the prime representative of the monsoonal weather system, which produces strong summertime upwelling resulting in rich fisheries that disappear in the winter. SA-II shows transition between the monsoonal system and the desert belt climate of SA-III. Its shallowness mean that the annual range of water temperature is the greatest for any water body freely connected to the world ocean. This restricts the ecosystems that can survive. It also enhances the effect of sea level rise on the tidal pattern. Because the SA-III region is the world`s major oil and gas extraction area, resulting land subsidence can produce an apparent sea level rise of the same order of magnitude as that postulated from expected climate change. Observed sea level rise could be twice the global rate. The shallowness of the area means that the change of tidal pattern resulting from the change of depth will be very dramatic. To help combat climate change it is recommended that: a high quality dense tide recording network be set up and connected to a land subsidence recording network; a regional central data collecting and data processing centre be identified in the region; an active participation in international relevant programs such as TOGA and GOOS by ROPME Member States be maintained; and environmental non-Governmental Organizationsshould be encouraged to publicise these issues.

  6. Radiation Level Changes at RAM Package Surfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Opperman, Erich [Washington Savannah River Company; Hawk, Mark B [ORNL; Kapoor, Ashok [U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Packaging and Transportation; Natali, Ronald [R. B. Natali Consulting, Inc.

    2010-01-01

    This paper will explore design considerations required to meet the regulations that limit radiation level variations at external surfaces of radioactive material (RAM) packages. The radiation level requirements at package surfaces (e.g. TS-R-1 paragraphs 531 and 646) invoke not only maximum radiation levels, but also strict limits on the allowable increase in the radiation level during transport. This paper will explore the regulatory requirements by quantifying the amount of near surface movement and/or payload shifting that results in a 20% increase in the radiation level at the package surface. Typical IP-2, IP-3, Type A and Type B packaging and source geometries will be illustrated. Variations in surface radiation levels are typically the result of changes in the geometry of the surface due to an impact, puncture or crush event, or shifting and settling of radioactive contents.

  7. Regional Approach to Building Operational Level Capacity for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to strengthen public health disaster management capacities at the operational level in six countries of the Eastern Africa region, the USAID-funded leadership project worked through the HEALTH Alliance, a network of seven schools of public health from six countries in the region to train district-level teams.

  8. Course of sea-level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlowicz, Michael

    This summer, the Environment and Climate Program of the European Union will offer an advanced study course on “sea-level changes on micro to macro timescales: measurements, modeling, interpretation, and application.” The short course will be taught from July 1-12 at the Aesclepon Conference Center on the island of Kos, Greece.The interdisciplinary course is designed to bring together at least 40 students from different disciplines in an attempt to share and disseminate fundamental ideas about sea level change, focusing particularly on changes influenced by anthropogenic factors. Participants will be selected by a scientific panel; the European Union will conduct the course free of charge and will provide free lodging. Students must pay for their own travel expenses and food.

  9. Coupling of sea level and tidal range changes, with implications for future water levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devlin, Adam T; Jay, David A; Talke, Stefan A; Zaron, Edward D; Pan, Jiayi; Lin, Hui

    2017-12-05

    Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this affect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that the variability in HAT is significantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fluctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric. At Hong Kong, the increase in tides significantly amplifies the risk caused by sea-level rise. Regions of tidal decrease and/or amplification highlight the non-linear response to sea-level variations, with the potential to amplify or mitigate against the increased flood risk caused by sea-level rise. Overall, our analysis suggests that in many regions, local flood level determinations should consider the joint effects of non-stationary tides and mean sea level (MSL) at multiple time scales.

  10. Reconstruction of regional climate and climate change in past decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Storch, H.; Feser, F.; Weisse, R.; Zahn, M.

    2009-12-01

    Regional climate models, which are constrained by large scale information (spectral nudging) provided by re-analyses, allow for the construction of a mostly homogeneous description of regional weather statistics since about 1950. The potential of this approach has been demonstrated for Northern Europe. That data set, named CoastDat, does not only contain hourly data on atmospheric variables, in particular wind, but also on marine weather, i.e., short term water level, current and sea state variations. Another example is the multi-decadal variability of Polar Lows in the subarctic waters. The utility of such data sets is broad, from risk assessments related to coastal wind and wave conditions, assessment of determining the causes for regional climate change, a-posteriori analysis of the efficiency of environmental legislation (example: lead). In the paper, the methodology is outlined, examples are provided and the utility of the product discussed.

  11. Effects of technological change in regional labor markets in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reyna Elizabeth Rodríguez Pérez

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Technological change has meant that organizations require workers with higher qualifications, development, implementation and adaptation of technology looking to stay at the forefront in international competitiveness. The aim of this paper is to analyze the changes that have occurred in regional labor markets in Mexico on occupational and wage and identify to what extent these changes may have resulted from technological change and if this behavior is spatially homogeneous. The information source is made up of microdata from the National Survey of Urban Employment (Employment Survey 2000–2004. The empirical analysis –considering workers officiating at high and low technological intensity and applying a Mincerian income function with different classification criteria: education, sex, age groups and regions– during the period indicate that there have been significant changes in the Mexican labor market as a result of biased technological change, as it provides statistical evidence indicating the existence of a higher wage premium for subordinates in the technological area, and different effects at the regional level, encouraging more to the border.

  12. ENDOGENOUS OR EXOGENOUS INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT IN INDUSTRY ON REGIONAL LEVEL?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arkadiusz Świadek

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available At the moment endogenous growth theory has become increasingly popular in the world of science, particularly in developed countries. This article aims to show, for two regions case, the needs and sense of applying this theory in the polish regions. Due to the low level of economic development of many Polish regions, they are unable to growth in a comparable rate as regions in developed countries. This explains the economic divergence between polish regions and the highly developed regions of Europe and the World. Stimulating economic growth is insufficient in such cases, because of the weakness of its internal factors. Therefore it is important to strengthen an external impact to keep internal development. It means that the endogenous growth theory is no reason to exist, in conditions of poor polish regions. Without external inputs there can’t be convergences processes. Therefore, the economic development of the Polish regions should be based on the exogenous growth theory.

  13. Strategic agency and institutional change: investigating the role of universities in regional innovation systems (RISs)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benneworth, Paul Stephen; Pinheiro, Romulo; Karlsen, James

    2014-01-01

    Past analyses rooted in thick description of regions successful in constructing regional innovation systems have given way to analyses more focused on the intentionality in these processes, and how actors in regions with their own wider networks can shape these high-level changes in regional

  14. Climate-driven changes in water level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Rikke Bjerring; Olsen, Jesper; Jeppesen, Erik

    2013-01-01

    level rose. Moreover, Nymphaeaceae trichosclereids were abundant during the period of algal enrichment. Cladoceran taxa associated with floating leaved plants or benthic habitats responded in a complex way to changes in water level, but the cladoceran assemblages generally reflected deep lake conditions...... hydrology driven by precipitation. The isotopic, sedimentary and plant macrofossil records suggested that the lake level started to decrease around 8400 cal. yr BP, the decrease accelerating during 8350-8260 before an abrupt increase during 8260-8210. This pattern shows that the climate anomaly started...... rates of cladoceran subfossils and algal pigments, possibly due to increased turbidity and reduced nutrient input during this drier period. Pigment analysis also showed added importance of diatoms and cryptophytes during this climate anomaly, while cyanobacteria became more important when the water...

  15. Global change and the measurement of absolute sea-level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamante, John M.; Pyle, Thomas E.; Carter, William E.; Scherer, Wolfgang

    To quantify properly the long-term response of sea-level to climate change, land motions must be separated from the apparent or relative sea-level change recorded by conventional tide/sea-level gauges. Here we present a concept for global measurement of the true or “absolute” sea-level change, which combines recent advances in space-based geodetic techniques with plans for a global sea-level network under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Data from initial feasibility tests show that land motion, due to global (plate tectonic), regional (glacial rebound), or local (fluid withdrawal) effects, can probably be measured to ±1cm (on a single measurement basis) by an innovative combination of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) tevhniques. By making repeated observations of position at a number of tide gauges using portable, economical GPS receivers in a differential mode relative to the fewer, more stable, but more expensive VLBI observatories, it will be possible to subtract land motion from the relative sea-level signal. Decadal to century scale trends at the 1-2mm y -1 level will be resolvable in the sea-level and vertical land motion time series within about a decade. Detection of subsidence or uplift at specific gauges will allow correction for land motion or deletion of bad data when computing regional or global, i.e. eustatic, sea-level changes. In addition to their applications in oceanography and climate studies, such data will test models by Peltier and other that relate mantle viscosity and deglaciation history to present rates of crustal subsidence or uplift. If the predicted crustal motions are confirmed, we can also have more confidence in the use of historical tide/sea-level gauge records in retrospective studies of sea-level change related to climate variability on decadal or longer time scales. It is concluded that as few as one-third (about 100) of the total number of tide/sea-level gauges (250

  16. Improving the Assessment of the Level of Regional Resources Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taraday Vladimir N.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The work improves the assessment of the level of managing development resources by regions of Ukraine, which is based on the use of a comprehensive assessment — multidimensional comparative analysis (namely the rank-sum test and allows comparing the effectiveness of managing resource development in regions of Ukraine using the available data, on their status on the basis of a unified system of indicators, as well as comparing the level of managing development resources by each region of Ukraine in time. The uneven development of regions of the country is investigated, the growth of inter-regional socio-economic disproportions is revealed. It is determined that, having a fundamentally different composition and volume of natural, human, financial resources, the state and effectiveness of managing development resources by regions of Ukraine is significantly different. The level of managing development resources by regions of Ukraine is proposed to be assessed by the aggregate indicators characterizing the increase in the productivity of the regional economy, profitability of local business, and level of incomes of the population; general increase in social standards, quality of life and business environment.

  17. Tokamak residual zonal flow level in near-separatrix region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bing-Ren, Shi

    2010-01-01

    Residual zonal flow level is calculated for tokamak plasmas in the near-separatrix region of a diverted tokamak. A recently developed method is used to construct an analytic divertor tokamak configuration. It is shown that the residual zonal flow level becomes smaller but still keeps finite near the separatrix because the neoclassical polarisation mostly due to the trapped particles goes larger in this region. (fluids, plasmas and electric discharges)

  18. Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

    2011-12-01

    According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary

  19. Measuring Regional Price Levels in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Mrázek

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Regional price level comparison in the Czech Republic was a topic not touched until recently. Then a team of researchers from the University of Economics in Prague pioneered the way for NUTS 3 regions for the year 2007 and repeatedly in 2012. Another step to establish more reliable results came together with a research team of the Technical University in Liberec, which brought qualitatively new and well advanced approaches. This article aims to discuss some aspects of the two attempts to establish regional price level compariso in the Czech Republic.

  20. Removing the regional level from the Niger vaccine supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assi, Tina-Marie; Brown, Shawn T; Kone, Souleymane; Norman, Bryan A; Djibo, Ali; Connor, Diana L; Wateska, Angela R; Rajgopal, Jayant; Slayton, Rachel B; Lee, Bruce Y

    2013-06-10

    Since many of the world's vaccine supply chains contain multiple levels, the question remains of whether removing a level could bring efficiencies. We utilized HERMES to generate a detailed discrete-event simulation model of Niger's vaccine supply chain and compared the current four-tier (central, regional, district, and integrated health center levels) with a modified three-tier structure (removing the regional level). Different scenarios explored various accompanying shipping policies and frequencies. Removing the regional level and implementing a collection-based shipping policy from the district stores increases vaccine availability from a mean of 70-100% when districts could collect vaccines at least weekly. Alternatively, implementing a delivery-based shipping policy from the central store monthly in three-route and eight-route scenarios only increases vaccine availability to 87%. Restricting central-to district vaccine shipments to a quarterly schedule for three-route and eight-route scenarios reduces vaccine availability to 49%. The collection-based shipping policy from district stores reduces supply chain logistics cost per dose administered from US$0.14 at baseline to US$0.13 after removing the regional level. Removing the regional level from Niger's vaccine supply chain can substantially improve vaccine availability as long as certain concomitant adjustments to shipping policies and frequencies are implemented. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Climate change and tourism in the alpine regions of Switzerland

    OpenAIRE

    Bürki, R; Abegg, B; Elsasser, H

    2007-01-01

    For many alpine areas in Switzerland, winter tourism is the most important source of income, and snow-reliability is one of the key elements of the offers made by tourism in the Alps. 85% of Switzerland’s current ski resorts can be designated as snow-reliable. If climate change occurs, the level of snow-reliability will rise from 1200 m up to 1800 m over the next few decades. Only 44% of the ski resorts wouldthen still be snow-reliable. While some regions may be able to maintain their winter ...

  2. Landcare and climate change: a regional perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huthwaite, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Bass Coast in Victoria represents a microcosm of the wide range of issues on which climate change will impact. It is experiencing rapid demographic change as sea and tree change populations increase, it adjoins the urban fringe of Melbourne, it includes Victoria's most popular eco-tourism and other recreational tourism areas, and it continues to be an important agricultural production area. The area has been one of the most reliable climate zones in Australia, but it is predicted to be one of the most affected by climate change. Landcare is a community-based, government and corporate-funded national organisation established for over twenty years. Landcare has been responsible for developing a positive attitude to sustainable and productive land management and implementing landscape scale environmental improvement. In Bass Coast it faces a broad range of problems related to climate change and it suffers from a scarcity of science-based information on which to base strategic direction. Given the very long-term nature of climate change and the equally long-term nature of Bass Coast Landcare Network environmental programs, it is essential to have more evidence based information and the need is urgent. Examples: Vegetation species for future climate and robustness of indigenous vegetation; Water supplies for livestock and wildlife while maintaining environmental flows; Salinity issues, soil structure and health issues; Testing and extending changed farming practices as seasons change Specific research/information needs: Growth rates at higher C02, especially woody weeds; Assessment of evaporation prevention options for farm dams (urgently needed); Options for harvesting stormwater and storage for both agriculture and wildlife use; A flexible and simple template for objectively assessing the costs and benefits of changing farming practices; Localised information on likely reduction in run-off under lower rainfall conditions. Communities will face a

  3. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

  4. Present day sea level changes: observation and causes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, A.

    2005-11-01

    Whereas sea level has changed little over the last 2000 years, it has risen at a rate of about 2 mm/year during the 20. century. This unexpected sea level rise has been attributed to the anthropogenic global warming, recorded over several decades. Sea level variations have been measured globally and precisely for about 12 years due to satellite altimeter missions Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1. These observations indicate a global mean sea level rise of about 3 mm/year since 1993, a value significantly larger than observed during previous decades. Recent observations have allowed us to quantify the various climatic factors contributing to observed sea level change: thermal expansion of sea water due to ocean warming, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in the land water reservoirs. A water budget based on these new observations allows us to partly explain the observed sea level rise. In particular, we show that the thermal expansion explains only 25% of the secular sea level rise as recorded by tide-gauges over the last 50 years, while it contributes about 50% of sea level rise observed over the last decade. Meanwhile, recent studies show that glacier and ice sheet melting could contribute the equivalent of 1 mm/year in sea level rise over the last decade. In addition, the high regional variability of sea level trends revealed by satellite altimetry is mainly due to thermal expansion. There is also an important decadal spatio-temporal variability in the ocean thermal expansion over the last 50 years, which seems to be controlled by natural climate fluctuations. We question for the first time the link between the decadal fluctuations in the ocean thermal expansion and in the land reservoirs, and indeed their climatic contribution to sea level change. Finally a preliminary analysis of GRACE spatial gravimetric observations over the oceans allows us to estimate the seasonal variations in mean sea level due to ocean water mass balance variations

  5. Security Situation in China’s Neighboring Regions: New Changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU FENG

    2016-01-01

    Recent Development of Security Structure in East Asia Region:Alliance Politics Has Entered a New Strategic Active Stage Since the end of the Cold War in1991,the East Asia Region has witnessed quite a number of changes in security situation.However,there have been no decisive changes in regional security order,power distribution or the strategic choices of major states in the region.The Obama Adminis-

  6. Changing geo-political realities in the Arctic region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Camilla T. N.

    2014-01-01

    This article analyzes and discusses how Denmark seeks to manage the changing geopolitical realities in the Arctic region specifically focusing on how Denmark seeks to manage its relations with China in the Arctic region.......This article analyzes and discusses how Denmark seeks to manage the changing geopolitical realities in the Arctic region specifically focusing on how Denmark seeks to manage its relations with China in the Arctic region....

  7. Climate change at global and regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, J.L.; Royer, J.F.

    2008-01-01

    In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. century. In this paper we present the results of the two french climate models, from CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

  8. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  9. Measuring Regional Changes in Damaged Tendon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frisch, Catherine Kayt Vincent

    Mechanical properties of tendon predict tendon health and function, but measuring these properties in vivo is difficult. An ultrasound-based (US) analysis technique called acoustoelastography (AE) uses load-dependent changes in the reflected US signal to estimate tissue stiffness non-invasively. This thesis explores whether AE can provide information about stiffness alteration resulting from tendon tears both ex vivo and in vivo. An ex vivo ovine infraspinatus tendon model suggests that the relative load transmitted by the different tendon layers transmit different fractions of the load and that ultrasound echo intensity change during cyclic loading decreases, becoming less consistent once the tendon is torn. An in vivo human tibialis anterior tendon model using electrically stimulated twitch contractions investigated the feasibility of measuring the effect in vivo. Four of the five subjects showed the expected change and that the muscle contraction times calculated using the average grayscale echo intensity change compared favorably with the times calculated based on the force data. Finally an AE pilot study with patients who had rotator cuff tendon tears found that controlling the applied load and the US view of the system will be crucial to a successful in vivo study.

  10. The ATLAS high level trigger region of interest builder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blair, R.; Dawson, J.; Drake, G.; Haberichter, W.; Schlereth, J.; Zhang, J.; Ermoline, Y.; Pope, B.; Aboline, M.; High Energy Physics; Michigan State Univ.

    2008-01-01

    This article describes the design, testing and production of the ATLAS Region of Interest Builder (RoIB). This device acts as an interface between the Level 1 trigger and the high level trigger (HLT) farm for the ATLAS LHC detector. It distributes all of the Level 1 data for a subset of events to a small number of (16 or less) individual commodity processors. These processors in turn provide this information to the HLT. This allows the HLT to use the Level 1 information to narrow data requests to areas of the detector where Level 1 has identified interesting objects

  11. Continental and Marine Environmental changes in Europe induced by Global Climate variability and Regional Paleogeography Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Popescu , Speranta - Maria

    2008-01-01

    version originale; My PhD and post-doctorate researches have focused on paleoclimatic, paleogeographical and paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the Mediterranean Basin and its adjacent seas (i.e. the residual former Paratethys) since 11 Ma. During this time-interval the Mediterranean marine and continental environments were affected by significant paleogeographic changes, forced by global climate and sea-level variability, plate tectonics and regional uplift of Alps s.l. and Carpathians. Tw...

  12. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

    1998-01-01

    .... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

  13. Climate change effects on regions of Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruce, J.P.

    2002-01-01

    This report describes the major effects of climatic change being experienced in different parts of Canada, and emphasizes those that they are likely to become so severe that they may disrupt social, ecological and economic systems. The report notes that the driving force behind these impacts is change in temperature, precipitation, and in extreme weather events. The report strongly suggests that greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide will likely continue to increase due to human activities such as burning of fossil fuels for heating, cooling and transportation. Loss of tropical forests is also listed as a cause for increased greenhouse gases. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, Canada must use energy much more efficiently, use more alternative renewable energy source and substitute natural gas for coal and oil whenever possible. It was emphasized that the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol would slow down the rate of increase of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn affect atmospheric concentrations. The author states that Canada's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol is key to global success, particularly since some countries have backed away from it and some are wavering. The report outlined the following major impacts of climate change in various parts of Canada: sea ice, permafrost, forest fires, transportation, toxic contaminants, storminess, precipitation, water supply, water quality, fisheries, hydropower, agriculture and human adaptation. refs., tabs

  14. MANAGEMENT OF INNOVATION IN HEALTH CARE AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye. G. Totskaya

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews topical issues of organization and management of innovative activity in the regional health care system.Objective. Development and scientific substantiation of a conceptual model of managing innovation in the regional health care system, introduction of institutional mechanisms for its implementation, and evaluation of their efficacy in using diagnosis and treatment technologies. Objectives of the study included reviewing the organization status and problems hampering the development, identification of prospects, and justification for appropriate changes in innovation in healthcare system and medical science at the regional level.Material and methods. To conduct a comprehensive assessment of the status and meet challenges of innovation promotion, a methodology for social-hygienic research was worked out including bibliographic and analytical methods, situational analysis, sociological and economic methods, expert assessment, methods for quality management system audit in accordance with ISO 19011:2002, IDEFO function modeling (RD IDEF0-2000, and organizational modeling. The study was based on the analysis of foreign and domestic literature, statistics, methods for managerial modeling, as well as management experience (including innovative methodological approaches gained by Novosibirsk Research Institute of Traumatology and Orthopedics named after Ya.L. Tsivyan which meets the requirements for a platform for research and innovative product reproduction, including research, clinical, organizational, and managerial aspects. Other facilities were considered in conjunction with the leading innovative platform.Results. The paper presents a scientifically based model of innovative medical environment with its elements as subjects, each with a set of functions. Conceptual model for management includes structuring (resource, processes, and quality management; application of international standards and strategic management mechanisms

  15. Historic Storminess Changes in North Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, A. G.; Elliott, L.; Noone, S.; Hickey, K.; Foster, I.; Wadhams, P.; Mayewski, P.

    2001-05-01

    Reconstructed patterns of historic storminess (1870-1990 AD) for North Atlantic region as indicated by measurements from selected stations in Iceland, Faeroes, Scotland and Ireland show clear links with the climate "seesaw" winters first described by Van Loon and Rogers. The stormiest winters appear to have occurred during periods when measured Greenland air temperatures at Jacobshavn and reconstructed air temperatures from the Summit ice core site have been exceptionally low and when air temperature across northern Europe have been well above average. Maxima and minima of recorded winter storms for the various stations are also in agreement with the Sodium chronology from GISP2 that points to increased sea salt precipitation on Greenland ice at Summit during Greenland "below" periods of the climate seesaw.

  16. The global change challenge: a regional perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, F

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available with resolution about 210 km Climate Modelling at the CSIR NRE ? NWP and RCM capacity build around the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) of the CSIRO ? A cube-based global model; semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit solution of the primitive equations... to impact on crop yield, livestock, biodiversity and energy demand ? CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za RCM ens-ave projected change in annual rainfall (%) for 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990 Southern Africa projected to become generally drier...

  17. Active Ageing Level of Older Persons: Regional Comparison in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Nuruzzaman Haque

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Active ageing level and its discrepancy in different regions (Bangkok, Central, North, Northeast, and South of Thailand have been examined for prioritizing the policy agenda to be implemented. Attempt has been made to test preliminary active ageing models for Thai older persons and hence active ageing index (AAI, ranges from 0 to 1 has been estimated. Using nationally representative data and confirmatory factor analysis approach, this study justified active ageing models for female and male older persons in Thailand. Results revealed that active ageing level of Thai older persons is not high (mean AAIs for female and male older persons are 0.64 and 0.61, resp., and those are significantly different (p<0.001. Mean AAI in Central region is lower than North, Northeast, and South regions but there is no significant difference in the latter three regions of Thailand. Special emphasis should be given to Central region and policy should be undertaken for increasing active ageing level. Implementation of an Integrated Active Ageing Package (IAAP, containing policies for older persons to improve their health and economic security, to promote participation in social groups and longer working lives, and to arrange learning programs, would be helpful for increasing older persons’ active ageing level in Thailand.

  18. Contribution of glacier melt to sea-level rise since AD 1865: a regionally differentiated calculation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuo, Z.; Oerlemans, J.

    1997-01-01

    The contribution of glacier melt, including the Greenland ice-sheet, to sea-level change since AD 1865 is estimated on the basis of modelled sensitivity of glacier mass balance to climate change and historical temperature data. Calculations are done in a regionally differentiated manner to overcome

  19. Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1995-01-01

    Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

  20. [Regional health and autonomy conferences (CRSAs): the implications for medical democracy at a regional level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devictor, Bernadette

    2010-01-01

    The HPST law seeks to reorganize the governance of healthcare at a regional level and to maintain the existence of regional health conferences, now known as regional health and autonomy conferences (CRSAs). The purpose of this article is to examine the new duties attributed to the CRSAs and to consider the various issues raised by their practice. The article also provides an analysis of the preconditions required for the successful implementation of medical democracy at a regional level, ie.: the involvement of the CRSAs in the assessment of regional healthcare policies, the mobilization of funds, the composition of the CRSAs (including the full range of healthcare areas), the importance of providing adequate support for territorial conferences, and the elaboration of a communicative space for fostering exchanges between CRSAs.

  1. Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment Considering Potential Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, S.; Holcombe, E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.

    2016-12-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around potential future rainfall triggers. We demonstrate how GSA can be used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

  2. Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torben Koenigk

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA. The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15°K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur.

  3. ANALYSIS OF CRISIS LEVEL IN REGIONS OF UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Abramova

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to identify the crisis level in regions of Ukraine in 2013–2015. The article also determines features, causes, and development of crisis situations in the regions of Ukraine and proposes measures to prevent the emergence and development of crisis situations or their disposal. Methodology. The basis for assessing the level of crisis in the socio-economic development of the region is to determine the level of deviation of actual indicators from the threshold values of socio-economic security. Such an assessment needs justification for the deviation of the actual indicators from the threshold values of socioeconomic security, which will correspond to a certain state of the depth of the crisis. The non-crisis zone characterizes the region as a powerful territorial centre of the country in the social and economic aspects. Actual indicators of the socio-economic development of this region are higher than the threshold values. Given the slowdown in the region’s development, the lack of innovative mechanisms for increasing economic potential, and the expansion of social programs for the population, this region may become a pre-crisis zone. A quantitative indicator of the zone of pre-crisis state, its threshold is numerical measurements, characterized by a 25-percent deviation from the threshold level of the non-crisis zone, which corresponds to the limits of indicators from 1.0 to 0.75. The growth of the same pace of socio-economic development, the implementation of effective measures of crisis management will lead to the transition of the region into a non-crisis zone. With a further fall in the level of socio-economic development, the region will fall into a zone of moderate crisis. In order to return to a precrisis state, regional authorities should develop a reactive anti-crisis strategy and effective rehabilitation programs. A quantitative indicator of this zone, its threshold is numerical measurements, which

  4. Location, change and income: The changing regional balance in Denmark endogenous and exogenous drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Nils Karl; Cornett, Andreas P.

    2017-01-01

    Historical the balance between regions within and between countries has changed for many reasons during the past decades. The drivers behind this process has been various from changes in institutional designs that has changed the geographical division of the regions to internal and external changes...

  5. Climate change/variability science and adaptive strategies for state and regional transportation decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    The objective of this study was to generate a baseline understanding of current policy responses to climate : change/variability at the state and regional transportation-planning and -decision levels. Specifically, : researchers were interested in th...

  6. Regional monitoring of temporal changes in groundwater quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broers, H.P.; Grift, B. van der

    2004-01-01

    Changes in agricultural practices are expected to affect groundwater quality by changing the loads of nutrients and salts in recharging groundwater, but regional monitoring networks installed to register the changes often fail to detect them and interpretation of trend analysis results is difficult.

  7. Assessment of watershed regionalization for the land use change parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randusová, Beata; Kohnová, Silvia; Studvová, Zuzana; Marková, Romana; Nosko, Radovan

    2016-04-01

    The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Floods and other natural hazards initiated by climate, soil, and land use changes are highly important in the 21st century. Flood risks and design flood estimation is particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. To obtain the design values in such cases where no recorded data exist, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites. The SCS-CN method is an empirical rainfall-runoff model developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS). The runoff curve number (CN) is based on the hydrological soil characteristics, land use, land management and antecedent saturation conditions of soil. This study is focused on development of the SCS-CN methodology for the changing land use conditions in Slovak basins (with the pilot site of the Myjava catchment), which regionalize actual state of land use data and actual rainfall and discharge measurements of the selected river basins. In this study the state of the water erosion and sediment transport along with a subsequent proposal of erosion control measures was analyzed as well. The regionalized SCS-CN method was subsequently used for assessing the effectiveness of this control measure to reduce runoff from the selected basin. For the determination of the sediment transport from the control measure to the Myjava basin, the SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio) model was used.

  8. Critical pathways of change in fruit export regions at desert margin (Chile)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Peter

    The purpose is to elucidate how critical pathways function in a fruit export region at the desert margin in Chile. The region was investigated at the system level as an open land system with managed fruit plantations in a geographically complex valley. Data collection procedures included total...... change changed pathways. Pathways resulted from a combination of global value chains, the adoption of innovations, past climate change, and regional conditions at different scales. Main pathways of change were upgrade and downgrade of the fruit export region and irrigation systems, whereas the breaking...... areas and not in others. The probable future is expected to be increased separation of intraregional pathways and a more imbalanced region. The conclusion is that openness is the main property responsible for critical pathways of change in the region....

  9. Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

  10. A conceptual framework for regional feedbacks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B.

    2012-04-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems and climate influence each other through biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo, water fluxes) processes. These interactions might be disturbed when a climate human-induced forcing takes place (e.g. deforestation); and the ecosystem responses to the climate system might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial forcing. Research on feedbacks has been mainly based on the carbon cycle at the global scale. However, biogeophysical feedbacks might have a great impact at the local or regional scale, which is the main focus of this article. A conceptual framework, with the major interactions and processes between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, is presented to further explore feedbacks at the regional level. Four hot spots with potential changes in land use/management and climate are selected: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, diverse climate human-induced forcings and feedbacks were identified based on relevant published literature. For Europe, the positive soil moisture-evapotranspiration (ET) is important for natural vegetation during a heat wave event, while the positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback plays a more important role for droughts in the Amazon region. Agricultural expansion in SSA will depend on the impacts of the changing climate on crop yields and the adopted agro-technologies. The adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems might turn the positive soil moisture- ET feedback into a negative one. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia might face water shortage in the future, and thus turning the soil moisture-ET feedback into a positive one. Further research is needed for the major processes that affect the ultimate sign of the feedbacks, as well as for the interactions, which effect remains uncertain, such as ET-precipitation interaction. In addition, socio-economic feedbacks need to be added

  11. Contributions of changes in climatology and perturbation and the resulting nonlinearity to regional climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Sachiho A; Nishizawa, Seiya; Yoshida, Ryuji; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Ando, Kazuto; Yashiro, Hisashi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Tomita, Hirofumi

    2017-12-20

    Future changes in large-scale climatology and perturbation may have different impacts on regional climate change. It is important to understand the impacts of climatology and perturbation in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic changes. Although many studies have investigated the influence of climatology changes on regional climate, the significance of perturbation changes is still debated. The nonlinear effect of these two changes is also unknown. We propose a systematic procedure that extracts the influences of three factors: changes in climatology, changes in perturbation and the resulting nonlinear effect. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the procedure, applying it to future changes in precipitation. All three factors have the same degree of influence, especially for extreme rainfall events. Thus, regional climate assessments should consider not only the climatology change but also the perturbation change and their nonlinearity. This procedure can advance interpretations of future regional climates.

  12. Could the changes in regional crop yields be a pointer of climatic change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trnka, M; Brázdil, R; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the changes in the yield stability of winter wheat and spring barley over the past 140 years and changes in the weather–yield relationships. The study area is located in the Czech Republic in eastern Central Europe between 48°37′–49°30′N and 15°29′–17°55′E and includes 4900 km...... (i.e., compared with the yield level), it showed no change or insignificant increases in the warmest and driest regions. The study also found that the sensitivity to inter-seasonal temperature increase was much more pronounced during 1961–2007 than at the end of the 19th century and that an increase...

  13. Ambient noise levels and characterization in Aegean region, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevim, Fatih; Zor, Ekrem; Açıkgöz, Cem; Tarancıoğlu, Adil

    2018-03-01

    We assessed the ambient noise level in the Aegean region and analyzed its diurnal variation and its relation to the earthquake detection capability of the Aegean Region Seismic Network (ARSN). We prepared probability density functions (PDFs) for 19 broadband stations in the Aegean region operated by the Earth and Marine Sciences Institute (EMSI) of the Marmara Research Center (MRC) of the Turkish Scientific Research Council (TÜBİTAK). The power spectral densities (PSDs) used to construct PDFs for each station were computed for the periods between 0.02 and 180 s. In addition, we generated noise map of the Aegean region for different periods using the PDFs to assess the origin of the noise. We analyzed earthquake activity in the region and found that there are more local events recorded at night than during the day for each station. This difference is strongly related to diurnal variation of background noise level for the period range mostly covering the frequency range for the local events. We observed daytime noise level 15 to 20 dB higher than that at the nighttime in high frequencies for almost all stations caused by its proximity to settled areas and roads. Additionally, we observed a splitting peak within the Double Frequency (DF) microseism band; it showed a clear noise increase around the short period DF band at all the stations, decreasing inland. This peak may be related to sea waves locally generated in the Aegean Sea. We also identified a prominent increase related to marble saw companies in some stations' noise PDFs.

  14. The regional characteristics of climatic change in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Longxun

    1994-01-01

    Using abundant historical records, the Chinese climatologists have analyzed regional climatic change during the past 2,000 years. Recently, more research on regional climatic change has been done by using the data of the instrumental period. The data show that Chinese climatic change has obvious regional characteristics. The average temperature in the whole country has kept increasing since the last century, and reached its highest value in the 1940s, then it decreased. Although there was a warming trend in the 1980s, the temperature declined again. Especially in the area south of 35 degree N and east of 100 degree E in the mainland China, the air temperature decreased continuously from the 1940s. So climatic change in China is not consistent with global warming, but has its own regional characteristics

  15. A Regional Observatory for Producers' Climate Change Adaptation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-22

    Apr 22, 2016 ... A Regional Observatory for Producers' Climate Change Adaptation in Thies, Senegal ... The Adaptation Insights series is a joint publication of the International Development Research Centre and the Centre for ... Innovation.

  16. High-Level System Change: Protecting Business and Society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Dixon

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Over the past 15 years, sustainability has become mainstream in the corporate and financial sectors. But environmental and social conditions are declining rapidly in many regions. Nearly all corporate and financial sector sustainability strategies are focused on company-level activities, such as unilaterally mitigating negative environmental and social impacts. But flawed economic and political systems make it impossible for businesses to mitigate about 80 percent of negative impacts. These impacts often return to harm companies, for example, in the form of market rejection, lawsuits and reputation damage. System change is the most important sustainability issue. Protecting business and society requires substantially shifting the focus of corporate sustainability strategies from company change to system change. A growing number of collaborative system change efforts are being implemented. Most focus on specific issues, sectors or system flaws. They frequently are ineffective because they do not use a whole system approach. All major aspects of human society are connected. Root causes, key leverage points and most effective solutions often lie outside of issue-specific areas. Climate change, economic reform and other complex issues can only be effectively addressed through a whole system approach. This paper summarizes important economic and political system flaws and describes a collaborative, whole system approach for engaging the corporate and financial sectors in system change.

  17. Climate Variability and Change in the Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lionello, Piero; Özsoy, Emin; Planton, Serge; Zanchetta, Giovanni

    2017-04-01

    This special issue collects new research results on the climate of the Mediterranean region. It covers traditional topics of the MedCLIVAR programme (www.medclivar.eu, Lionello et al. 2006, Lionello et al. 2012b) being devoted to papers addressing on-going and future climate changes in the Mediterranean region and their impacts on its environment.

  18. Regional approach to building operational level capacity for disaster planning: the case of the Eastern Africa region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazeyo, W; Mayega, R W; Orach, G C; Kiguli, J; Mamuya, S; Tabu, J S; Sena, L; Rugigana, E; Mapatano, M; Lewy, D; Mock, N; Burnham, G; Keim, M; Killewo, J

    2013-06-01

    The Eastern Africa region is regularly affected by a variety of disasters ranging from drought, to human conflict and population displacement. The magnitude of emergencies and response capacities is similar across the region. In order to strengthen public health disaster management capacities at the operational level in six countries of the Eastern Africa region, the USAID-funded leadership project worked through the HEALTH Alliance, a network of seven schools of public health from six countries in the region to train district-level teams. To develop a sustainable regional approach to building operational level capacity for disaster planning. This project was implemented through a higher education leadership initiative. Project activities were spear-headed by a network of Deans and Directors of public health schools within local universities in the Eastern Africa region. The leadership team envisioned a district-oriented systems change strategy. Pre-service and in-service curricula were developed regionally and district teams were formed to attend short training courses. Project activities began with a situational analysis of the disaster management capacity at national and operational levels. The next steps were chronologically the formation of country training teams and training of trainers, the development of a regional disaster management training curriculum and training materials, the cascading of training activities in the region, and the incorporation of emerging issues into the training curriculum. An evaluation model included the analysis of preparedness impact of the training program. The output from the district teams was the creation of individual district-level disaster plans and their implementation. This 4-year project focused on building operational level public health emergency response capacity, which had not previously been part of any national program. Use of the all-hazard approach rather than a scenario-based contingency planning led to the

  19. Millennial, centennial and decadal sea- level change in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, A.; Hawkes, A. D.; Donnelly, J. P.; Horton, B. P.

    2012-12-01

    Reconstructions of relative sea-level changes on millennial timescales provide data against which to test and calibrate Earth-Ice models. On the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast they constrain the geometry of the Laurentide Ice Sheet's collapsing forebulge. Sea -level data from southeastern Atlantic coast additionally constrain ice-equivalent meltwater input. Here we produce the first Holocene sea-level curve for Florida and Georgia from the St. Mary's River using agglutinated foraminifera preserved in radiocarbon-dated brackish and salt-marsh sediment. The use of foraminfera as sea-level indicators was underpinned by local and regional datasets describing the modern distribution of assemblages that are analogues for those preserved in buried sediment. This approach produced 25 index points that record 5.2 m of relative sea level rise over the last 8000 years with no evidence of a mid Holocene high stand. These reconstructions indicate that existing GIA models do not replicate proxy reconstructions and that northern Florida is subsiding in response to ongoing forebulge collapse at an estimated rate of approximately 0.3 mm/yr. Over multi decadal time scales, detailed sea level reconstructions provide an appropriate geological context for modern rates of sea-level rise. Reconstructions spanning the last 2000 years of known climate variability are important for developing models with predictive capacity that link climate and sea level changes. A reconstruction of sea-level changes since 2000 years BP was developed using a core of brackish marsh sediment from the Nassau River in Florida. Foraminifera estimated the elevation of former sea level with an uncertainty of ± 10 cm. Consistent downcore assemblages indicate that the marsh maintained its tidal elevation for 2000 years. An age depth model was developed for the core results from radiocarbon dating, 210Pb and 137Cs. The resulting relative sea level record was adjusted for the contribution made by glacio

  20. Greenhouse warming and changes in sea level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1989-01-01

    It is likely that the anticipated warming due to the effect of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a further and faster rise in world mean sea level. There are many processes in the climate system controlling sea level, but the most important

  1. Determinants of anti-corruption activities at the regional level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Ovchinnikova

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article explores the concept of corruption, defined as an obstacle to economic and social development, created by representatives of the power structures of the country, region, enterprise, weakening the efficiency of management and the institutional foundation of society. Anticorruption activity is presented in the article as conditions created by the state and ensuring that the country's economy is not irreparably damaged by internal and external economic threats. The estimated characteristics of the anti-corruption activities of the regions and the country as a whole, as a rule, are studied in the domestic sources and among foreign authors. Statistical evaluation of the relationship between the level of corruption and indicators: the dynamics of GRP growth, the index of real incomes of the population, the costs of training, health care is made on the basis of the coefficient Pearson correlation. Based on the correlation analysis, stable links were established between the level of corruption and the socio-economic indicators of the region's development: an increase in the level of corruption associated with an increase in the population's spending on education and medicine; a reduction in the level of corruption, as a result of increased incomes of the population and higher wages. The consequences of corruption are presented: legal (the undeveloped legislative base, which involves bribery of powerful people, the growth of corruption in the society, the increase in corruption crimes, the inefficiency of the regulatory framework, social (moral violation, low public evaluation of the activities of power structures, low level of culture and upbringing , economic (bias financial, investment decisions, illegal distribution of property and non-property benefits, the impossibility of competitors Vat with developed countries and others.

  2. Regional technological change in US coal mines: 1951-76

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakhani, H A

    1982-04-01

    This paper analyses technological change in coal mines in five regions - the Northern and Southern Appalachians, the Rocky Mountains, the Interior and Gulf and Northern Great Plains. Section 2 deals with changes in production profiles, over time, of the regions by dividing coal mines into underground and surface mines. It concludes that the Appalachian regions are the declining regions with lower labour productivity and that the Northern Great Plains, with its increasing labour productivity, is the expanding region. Section 3 presents a methodology of S-shaped growth curves. Section 4 reports empirical results for growth rates of adoption of the newer techniques across regions. These results reveal that the Northern Great Plains region is not absorbing the manpower and resources released by the Appalachian regions so that there are shortages in the former in the face of unemployment in the latter. There is, therefore, an opportunity for the declining Appalachian regions to inform their surplus manpower and resources about the growth centre in the north and prepare them for relocation, retraining and readjustment to the changes. (11 refs.)

  3. Ice sheet-ocean interactions and sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimbach, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has increased rapidly since the mid-1990s. Their combined loss now accounts for about one-third of global sea level rise. In Greenland, a growing body of evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which this dynamic response originated. Similarly, ice streams in West Antarctica that feed vast floating ice shelves have exhibited large decadal changes. We review observational evidence and present physical mechanisms that might explain the observed changes, in particular in the context of ice sheet-ocean interactions. Processes involve cover 7 orders of magnitudes of scales, ranging from mm boundary-layer processes to basin-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean variability. We discuss observational needs to fill the gap in our mechanistic understanding.

  4. Activity Level Change Detection for Persistent Surveillance

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Liu, F; Bush, L. A

    2004-01-01

    .... Instead of traditional target tracking, this approach utilizes GMTI data as moving spots on the ground to estimate the level of activities and detect unusual activities such as military deployments...

  5. Prospects for regional safeguards systems - State-level Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peixoto, O.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    The increased co-operation with Regional Safeguard's System (RSAC) is a relevant tool for strengthening effectiveness and improving the efficiency of the international safeguard. The new safeguards system that emerges from the application of the Additional Protocol (INFCIRC/540) and the full use of State-level Concept is a challenge and an opportunity for effectively incorporate RSAC into the international safeguards scheme. The challenge is to determine how the co-operation and coordination will be implemented on this new safeguards scheme. This paper presents some discussions and prospects on the issues to be faced by RSAC and IAEA during the implementation of State-level Approach (SLA) using all information available. It is also discussed how different levels of co-operation could be achieved when SLA is applied by IAEA safeguards. The paper is followed by the slides of the presentation. (authors)

  6. Observations: Oceanic climate change and sea level

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bindoff, N.L.; Willebrand, J.; Artale, V.; Cazenave, A; Gregory, J.; Gulev, S.; Hanawa, K.; LeQuere, C.; Levitus, S.; Nojiri, Y.; Shum, C.K.; Talley, L.D.; Unnikrishnan, A

    change is 10.9 ± 3.1 × 10 22 J or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m –2 (data from Levitus et al., 2005a). All of these estimates are per unit area of Earth surface. Despite the fact that there are differences between these three ocean heat content estimates due... to the data used, quality control applied, instrumental biases, temporal and spatial averaging and analysis methods (Appendix 5.A.1), they are consistent with each other giving a high degree of confidence for their use in climate change studies. The global...

  7. Regional scenarios of future climate change over southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tadross, M

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In this chapter, the authors provide projections of regional climate change so that decision-makers can better understand the nature of the projected changes, and how to take this into account when formulating and implementing adaptive strategies....

  8. Regional economic change in Europe: a neo-Schumpeterian vision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hospers, Gerrit J.

    2004-01-01

    In this era of ongoing globalization a coherent vision on Europe's changing geo-economy is more important than ever before. Drawing on the work of Schumpeter, Fourastié and Perroux, the book at hand offers a new and policy-oriented perspective on regional economic change in Europe.Conceptually, it

  9. Regional Changes in the Timber Resources of and Lumber Production in Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    William G. Luppold; Matthew S. Bumgardner; Matthew S. Bumgardner

    2005-01-01

    In this study we examine regional differences in the hardwood timber resources of Pennsylvania and explain how the combined changes in this resource and in lumber prices have influenced regional lumber production. Isolation of these relationships is important because shifts in lumber production affect harvesting levels and harvesting activity influences long-term...

  10. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  11. Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) Regional Land Cover Data and Change Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  12. Analysis of the Level of Development of the Socio-labour Sphere of Ukrainian Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bibikova Viktoriia V.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is the study of the level of development of the socio-labour sphere of Ukrainian regions. In order to achieve the goal, the article develops a complex scorecard, which takes into account all elements of the socio-labour sphere (socio-labour relations, labour market system of labour reimbursement, social accompaniment of labour activity, professional development of economically active population, level and quality of labour life, safety and security of labour. On the basis of the use of the developed scorecard, the article conducts an integral assessment of the level of development of the socio-labour sphere of regions. In order to get more objective information about the state of the labour sphere of Ukraine, the article uses its subjective assessments by population. In the result of the analysis, it reveals a lack of progressive changes of the socio-labour sphere in majority (60% of Ukrainian regions, availability of significant differentiation of regions by the level of its development and the irregular character of changes of separate elements of the labour sphere both within one administrative and territorial unit and among different regions of Ukraine. The article justifies a necessity of conduct of regular diagnostics of the state of the socio-labour sphere of Ukrainian regions with the use of a developed scorecard.

  13. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  14. Competitiveness and food security at the regional level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail Vasil'evich Fyodorov

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with food safety as one of the areas of food security and food sovereignty. A review of concepts, models, acts on the power of international and national levels is made. The authors formulate a conclusion about the need for a measure of «food quality» with the release of the functional components of fitness (the ability to perform specified functions with the purpose and safety (restrictions on the content of harmful substances in the products. The analysis of the competitiveness of local products is made on the quality characteristics based on the proportion of output indicator of inadequate quality or dangerous to health in the total volume of products placed on the market. The paper identifies key areas of federal and regional levels to comply with the quality of food.

  15. Radioactivity levels in three regions of Costa Rica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mora, P.; Salazar, A.

    1995-01-01

    The establishment of the first radioactivity levels of natural radiation was carried out during the period 1991 to 1994 in three different regions of Costa Rica. The radionuclides studied belong to different soil types related to each selected region. Utilizing low level counting techniques the specific activity of the natural radioactive chains 238 U daughters, 232 Th and the element 40 K were measured for a total of 120 samples during this period. The amount of 137 Cs, a fall out radionuclide, was also studied. The average national values in Bq.kg -1 measured for 238 U were 11.66 for 214 Bi, 34.42 for 226 Ra and 10.73 for 232 Pb, for 232 Th daughters were 4.08 for 208 Tl, 9.65 for 212 Bi and 7.62 for 228 Ac. The specific activity value for 40 K was 95.14 Bq.kg -1 and for 137 Cs was 2.38 Bq.kg -1 . It is found that Costa Rica is not highly natural radioactive country and that the values for 137 Cs are well below international reported values [es

  16. Active Ageing Level of Older Persons: Regional Comparison in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, Md Nuruzzaman

    2016-01-01

    Active ageing level and its discrepancy in different regions (Bangkok, Central, North, Northeast, and South) of Thailand have been examined for prioritizing the policy agenda to be implemented. Attempt has been made to test preliminary active ageing models for Thai older persons and hence active ageing index (AAI, ranges from 0 to 1) has been estimated. Using nationally representative data and confirmatory factor analysis approach, this study justified active ageing models for female and male older persons in Thailand. Results revealed that active ageing level of Thai older persons is not high (mean AAIs for female and male older persons are 0.64 and 0.61, resp., and those are significantly different (p active ageing level. Implementation of an Integrated Active Ageing Package (IAAP), containing policies for older persons to improve their health and economic security, to promote participation in social groups and longer working lives, and to arrange learning programs, would be helpful for increasing older persons' active ageing level in Thailand.

  17. The increased atmospheric greenhouse effect and regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groenaas, S. [Bergen Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The main information for predicting future climate changes comes from integrating coupled climate models of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Regional climate change may be studied from the global integrations, however, resolution is coarse because of insufficient computer power. Attempts are being made to get more regional details out of the global integrations by ``downscaling`` the latter. This can be done in two ways. Firstly, limited area models with high resolution are applied, driven by the global results as boundary values. Secondly, statistical relationships have been found between observed meteorological parameters, like temperature and precipitation, and analyzed large scale gridded fields. The derived relations are then used on similar data from climate runs to give local interpretations. A review is given of literature on recent observations of climate variations and on predicted regional climate change. 18 refs., 4 figs.

  18. Unemployment Insurance Benefit Levels and Consumption Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Browning, Martin; Crossley, Thomas

    We use a survey of unemployed people to examine how a job loss impacts on household expenditures. The principal focus is on the effect of the level of income replacement provided by Unemployment Insurance. We restrict attention to a sub-sample of respondents who are still in their first spell...... of unemployment after six months. For this group we find large consumption falls, averaging about 16% of total expenditure. The actual fall depends on a variety of factors of which the most important is the pre-job loss ratio of the respondent's income to household income. The effects of varying the replacement...... within the household and hence on other facets of behaviour such as job search, unemployment duration and the quality of any new job taken...

  19. Measuring Poverty at the Regional Level in Spain: A Reflexive Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nerea Zugasti

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article assesses the utility of adjusting the poverty threshold for regional areas of Spain and of using thresholds anchored in time. It also offers a critical review of equivalence scales as a central element in estimating poverty. To do this, data from the Income and Living Conditions Surveys from 2007 to 2012 is used. The results show that poverty rates obtained with national thresholds are strongly influenced by intra-regional inequalities in income. They also show that regional thresholds capture differences in the well-being of the population, controlling for the effects of regional disparities in economic development. In addition, they demonstrate that anchored thresholds avoid inconsistencies in poverty rates tied to changes in income levels of the general population and not to changes in socially necessary resources.

  20. Incorporating regional growth into forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from project-level residential and commercial development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowangould, Dana; Eldridge, Melody; Niemeier, Deb

    2013-01-01

    To better understand the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of land use planning decisions, regional planning organizations have developed tools to forecast the emissions from project-level residential and commercial development. This paper reviews the state of GHG emissions forecasting methods for project-level development. We argue that when forecasting changes in regional emissions it is important to make explicit what is assumed about a project′s effect on the population of residents and businesses in the region. We present five regional growth assumptions capturing the range of ways that project-level development might influence (i) construction and occupancy of similar developments elsewhere in a region and (ii) relocation of the initial activities that occur on-site before the project is built. We show that current forecasting tools inconsistently address the latter when they are interpreted as forecasted changes in regional emissions. Using a case study in Yolo County, California we demonstrate that forecasted changes in regional emissions are greatly affected by the regional growth assumption. In the absence of information about which regional growth assumption is accurate, we provide guidelines for selection of a conservative regional growth assumption. - Highlights: • Current tools inconsistently forecast GHG emissions from project-level development. • We outline five assumptions about how projects may affect regional growth. • Our assumptions capture a range of economic and population effects of projects. • Our case study shows that growth assumptions greatly affect regional GHG estimates. • We provide guidelines for selecting a conservative regional growth assumption

  1. Region-Based Building Rooftop Extraction and Change Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, J.; Metzlaff, L.; d'Angelo, P.; Reinartz, P.

    2017-09-01

    Automatic extraction of building changes is important for many applications like disaster monitoring and city planning. Although a lot of research work is available based on 2D as well as 3D data, an improvement in accuracy and efficiency is still needed. The introducing of digital surface models (DSMs) to building change detection has strongly improved the resulting accuracy. In this paper, a post-classification approach is proposed for building change detection using satellite stereo imagery. Firstly, DSMs are generated from satellite stereo imagery and further refined by using a segmentation result obtained from the Sobel gradients of the panchromatic image. Besides the refined DSMs, the panchromatic image and the pansharpened multispectral image are used as input features for mean-shift segmentation. The DSM is used to calculate the nDSM, out of which the initial building candidate regions are extracted. The candidate mask is further refined by morphological filtering and by excluding shadow regions. Following this, all segments that overlap with a building candidate region are determined. A building oriented segments merging procedure is introduced to generate a final building rooftop mask. As the last step, object based change detection is performed by directly comparing the building rooftops extracted from the pre- and after-event imagery and by fusing the change indicators with the roof-top region map. A quantitative and qualitative assessment of the proposed approach is provided by using WorldView-2 satellite data from Istanbul, Turkey.

  2. REGION-BASED BUILDING ROOFTOP EXTRACTION AND CHANGE DETECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Tian

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Automatic extraction of building changes is important for many applications like disaster monitoring and city planning. Although a lot of research work is available based on 2D as well as 3D data, an improvement in accuracy and efficiency is still needed. The introducing of digital surface models (DSMs to building change detection has strongly improved the resulting accuracy. In this paper, a post-classification approach is proposed for building change detection using satellite stereo imagery. Firstly, DSMs are generated from satellite stereo imagery and further refined by using a segmentation result obtained from the Sobel gradients of the panchromatic image. Besides the refined DSMs, the panchromatic image and the pansharpened multispectral image are used as input features for mean-shift segmentation. The DSM is used to calculate the nDSM, out of which the initial building candidate regions are extracted. The candidate mask is further refined by morphological filtering and by excluding shadow regions. Following this, all segments that overlap with a building candidate region are determined. A building oriented segments merging procedure is introduced to generate a final building rooftop mask. As the last step, object based change detection is performed by directly comparing the building rooftops extracted from the pre- and after-event imagery and by fusing the change indicators with the roof-top region map. A quantitative and qualitative assessment of the proposed approach is provided by using WorldView-2 satellite data from Istanbul, Turkey.

  3. Evaluation of uncertainties in regional climate change simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pan, Z.; Christensen, J. H.; Arritt, R. W.

    2001-01-01

    , an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (GCM) current climate, and a future scenario of transient climate change. Common precipitation climatology features simulated by both models included realistic orographic precipitation, east-west transcontinental gradients, and reasonable annual cycles over...... to different subgrid scale processes in individual models. The ratio of climate change to biases, which we use as one measure of confidence in projected climate changes, is substantially larger than 1 in several seasons and regions while the ratios are always less than 1 in summer. The largest ratios among all...... regions are in California. Spatial correlation coefficients of precipitation were computed between simulation pairs in the 2x3 set. The climate change correlation is highest and the RCM performance correlation is lowest while boundary forcing and intermodel correlations are intermediate. The high spatial...

  4. Climate Change Assessments for Lakes Region of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayten Erol

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the most important challenges for forestry. Forests are known to be most efficient natural tools to ensure availability and quality of water in many regions. Besides, planning of forest resources towards water quality and quantity is essential in countries that are expected to face with more frequent drought periods in the next decades due to climate change. Watershed management concept has been supposed as the primary tool to plan natural resources in a more efficient and sustainable way by both academicians and practitioners to mitigate and adapt climate change. Forest cover among other land use types provides the best regulating mechanism to mitigate erosion, sedimentation, desertification, and pollution. In addition, climate change can potentially affect forest stand dynamics by influencing the availability of water resources. Therefore, the amount of forest cover in a watershed is an indicator of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climate change is a concern and risk for the sustainability of water resources in Lakes Region of Turkey. The objective of this study is to make a comprehensive assessment in lake watersheds of the Lakes region considering the forest cover. For this purpose, the study gives a general view of trends in climatic parameters using Mann Kendall trend test. The results showed that Mann Kendall trend test for temperature and precipitation data is not enough to evaluate the magnitude of potential changes of climate in terms of forest cover. Understanding impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest cover, runoff data should be evaluated with temperature and precipitation for watersheds of forest areas in Lakes Region.

  5. Relevance of PLUREL's results to policies at EU, national, regional and local level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    and results to policies and policy development at the EU-level, as well as the national and regional level. PLUREL has peri-urban land use relationships as its main focus. This includes analysis of drivers, consequences, policies and scenarios for the future. Even though PLUREL aims for pan-European coverage...... of natural resources as well as an attractive development in general. Besides these spatial relevant sector policies, the EU enforces legislation which is translated into spatial explicit instruments on sub-regional level. E.g. the Habitat and Birds Directive caused the development of Natura 2000 areas......, an EU-wide network of nature protection areas. The implementation of Trans-European Networks through funding programmes is another sector policy having an impact on land-use change and rural-urban relations. On the sub-regional scale the perception on overall goals like sustainability can be very...

  6. Pleistocene lake level changes in Western Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borodavko, P. S.

    2009-04-01

    Global cooling in the Early Pleistocene caused extensive continental glaciation in the northern hemisphere including the arid areas of Central Asia. The reduction of temperatures (particularly summer temperatures) reduced evaporation and strengthened the importance of precipitation. The simultaneity of "lakes periods" (pluvials) and stages of glaciation is established experience confirmed by investigations in the west of North America and Russia. In the Mongolian Great Lakes Depression new evidence for similar conditions is found. The Great Lakes Depression is one of the largest in Central Asia, and is divided into 2 main Lakes basins: Hyargas Lake Basin and Uvs Lake Basin. The basin is 600-650 km in length with a width of 200-250 km in the north and 60-100 km in the south. Total catchment area is about 186600 km2. The elevation of the basin floor is from 1700 m a.s.l. to 760 m a.s.l., decreasing to the north and south-east. The depression extends south-north and is bounded by mountains: Tannu-Ola to the north, Hangai to the east; Gobi Altai to the south and Mongolian Altay to the west. The maximum elevation of the mountains is 4000 m a.s.l. There are some mountains with an elevation between 2000 and 3000 m a.s.l in the lake catchment. These mountains are not glaciated today. The geological record [1] suggests the Great Lakes Depression already existed in the Mesozoic, but assumed its modern form only during the Pliocene-Quaternary when tectonic movements caused the uplift of the surrounding mountains. A phase of tectonic stability occurred during the Late Quaternary. The depression is filled by Quaternary fluvial, aeolian and lacustrine deposits (e.g. sand, pebbles). The Neogene deposits are represented by coloured clay, marl, sand and sandstone [1]. Hyargas Lake is the end base level of erosion of the lake group consisting of the Hara-Us Nur, Dorgon, Hara Nur and Airag lakes. Hyargas is one of the largest lakes in Mongolia, with a water surface of 1,407 km2. The

  7. Regional climate change scenarios for México

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez-Salvador, Begoña; Sánchez, O.; Gay, C.

    In this paper we present the regional climate change scenarios that were used for the assessment of the potential impacts in México on agriculture, livestock, forestry, hydrological resources as well as on human settlements and biodiversity. Those studies were developed for the Fourth Communication

  8. Oceans around Southern Africa and regional effects of global change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Lutjeharms, JRE

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last few decades, a great deal of work has been carried out on the nature of the oceanic circulation around southern Africa. Attempts have been made to determine regional ocean-atmosphere interactions and the effect of changing sea...

  9. The role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, Sander; Stiller, Sabina; Keskitalo, E.C.H.; Scholten, Peter; Smits, Robert; Lamoen, van Frank

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to better understand the role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation. We first present a framework, which distinguishes five functions of leadership within inter-organizational networks: the connective, enabling, adaptive, political–administrative and dissemination

  10. Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms in Noncoding Regions of Rad51C Do Not Change the Risk of Unselected Breast Cancer but They Modulate the Level of Oxidative Stress and the DNA Damage Characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gresner, Peter; Gromadzinska, Jolanta; Jablonska, Ewa

    2014-01-01

    affect the unselected BrC risk. Contrary to this, carriers of rs12946522, rs16943176, rs12946397 and rs17222691 rare-alleles were found to present significantly increased level of blood plasma TBARS compared to respective wild-type homozygotes (p... decreased fraction of oxidatively generated DNA damage (34% of total damaged DNA) in favor of DNA strand breakage, with no effect on total DNA damage, unlike respective wild-types, among which more evenly distributed proportions between oxidatively damaged DNA (48% of total DNA damage) and DNA strand...

  11. Urban and regional change in Australia: an empirical introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'connor, K

    1984-08-01

    Recent changes in the spatial distribution of the population in Australia are examined. In particular, changes in population by state are analyzed for the period 1971-1981. The relationship of these changes to shifts in economic activity, private investment, and banking activity is considered. "Results show there have been only small shifts toward population growth areas. These results are interpreted in part as a consequence of nonlocal multipliers and linkages back to established areas, but also as a reflection of the unique features of the Australian urban and regional system." excerpt

  12. Effecting Organizational Change at the Macro Level of Professions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Robert Anthony

    2017-01-01

    Much has been written in academic and popular publications about organizational change. Topics have ranged from case studies to anecdotal stories of how leaders can change an organization. There is little written on changing the culture and vision of a profession at the macro level. This dissertation shows that one key to effecting change within a…

  13. Local and Regional Partnerships in Natural Resource Management: The Challenge of Bridging Institutional Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prager, Katrin

    2010-11-01

    Although collaboration and multi-stakeholder partnerships have become a common feature in natural resource management throughout the world, various problems are associated with attempts to up-scale community-based natural resource management from the local to the regional level. To analyze the reasons behind these problems, this article reports on two examples of collaboratives in Australia: local Landcare groups, and regional natural resource management (NRM) bodies. Recent government-induced changes have shifted the focus from local Landcare group action to strategic planning and implementation by regional NRM bodies. Two typologies of collaboratives are applied to analyze the characteristics of both these groups. The study uses data from 52 qualitative interviews with key informants at the local and regional level in Victoria and Tasmania, participant observation, as well as literature and document analysis. The article illustrates how the groups’ distinct characteristics can cause conflicts when the different types of collaboratives operate in parallel. In addition, the article reports how stakeholders perceive the level of community participation in decision-making processes. The key message is that the benefits of community participation and collaboration that arise at the local level can be lost when these approaches are up-scaled to the regional level unless there is an intermediary or ‘mediating structure’ to facilitate communication and create the link between different types of collaboratives.

  14. How Rapid Change Affects Deltas in the Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, I.; Bendixen, M.

    2017-12-01

    Deltas form where the river drains into the ocean. Consequently, delta depositional processes are impacted by either changes in the respective river drainage basin or by changes in the regional marine environment. In a warming Arctic region rapid change has occurred over the last few decades in both the terrestrial domain as well as in the marine domain. Important terrestrial controls include 1) change in permafrost possibly destabilizing river banks, 2) strong seasonality of river discharge due to a short melting season, 3) high sediment supply if basins are extensively glaciated, 4) lake outbursts and ice jams favoring river flooding. Whereas in the Arctic marine domain sea ice loss promotes wave and storm surge impact, and increased longshore transport. We here ask which of these factors dominate any morphological change in Arctic deltas. First, we analyze hydrological data to assess change in Arctic-wide river discharge characteristics and timing, and sea ice concentration data to map changes in sea ice regime. Based on this observational analysis we set up a number of scenarios of change. We then model hypothetical small-scale delta formation considering change in these primary controls by setting up a numerical delta model, and combining it dynamically with a permafrost model. We find that for typical Greenlandic deltas changes in river forcing due to ice sheet melt dominate the morphological change, which is corroborated by mapping of delta progradation from aerial photos and satellite imagery. Whereas in other areas, along the North Slope and the Canadian Arctic small deltas are more stable or experienced retreat. Our preliminary coupled model allows us to further disentangle the impact of major forcing factors on delta evolution in high-latitude systems.

  15. How Social Media is Changing the Practice of Regional Anesthesiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Eric S; Chu, Larry F; Gupta, Rajnish K; Mariano, Edward R

    2017-06-01

    This review summarizes the current applications of social media in regional anesthesiology, describes ways that specific platforms may promote growth, and briefly discusses limitations and future directions. Although Facebook users outnumber Twitter users, the latter has been better studied in regional anesthesiology and may have the advantages of speed and expansion of reach. Highly tweeted publications are more likely to be cited in the medical literature, and twitter-enhanced journal clubs facilitate communication regarding important articles with international colleagues. In both the United States and internationally, Twitter has been shown to enhance the anesthesiology conference experience, changing communication among attendees and non-attendees. YouTube and podcasts are quickly finding a niche in regional anesthesiology for just-in-time training and continuing professional development. Social media use is rapidly growing in regional anesthesiology, and benefits include global interaction and knowledge translation within the specialty and with the general public.

  16. Regional climate change-Science in the Southeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sonya A.

    2010-01-01

    Resource managers are at the forefront of a new era of management. They must consider the potential impacts of climate change on the Nation's resources and proactively develop strategies for dealing with those impacts on plants, animals, and ecosystems. This requires rigorous, scientific understanding of environmental change. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in this effort is to analyze climate-change data and develop tools for assessing how changing conditions are likely to impact resources. This information will assist Federal, State, local, and tribal partners manage resources strategically. The 2008 Omnibus Budget Act and Secretarial Order 3289 established a new network of eight Department of Interior Regional Climate Science Centers to provide technical support for resource managers. The Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) is the first regional assessment to be funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (http://nccw.usgs.gov/). The USGS is working closely with the developing Department of Interior Landscape Conservation Cooperatives to ensure that the project will meet the needs of resource managers in the Southeast. In addition, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is providing resources to the SERAP to expand the scope of the project.

  17. Determinants of the Shadow Economy in the Czech Regions: A Region-Level Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buček Jakub

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the size and development of the shadow economy in the Czech Republic on the state-level base over the 2005-2014 period. The multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC model is used to assess the estimation of the shadow economy size. I investigate how labour market, number of people with at least one distraint, and the burden of taxation might contribute to the existence of the shadow economy. While the former two are important determinants of the shadow economy, I find no evidence to prove any significant impact of distraints on the shadow economy size. As for the country’s particular regions, I find that those surrounding big cities, especially Prague, have, on average, a smaller shadow economy size, whereas regions in the borderlands (former Sudetenland suffer from a larger shadow economy.

  18. Climate in France during the 21. century - Regionalized scenarios - Reference indices for the metropolitan region - Evolution at sea level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peings, Yannick; Planton, Serge; Deque, Michel; Jamous, Marc; Le Treut, Herve; Gallee, Hubert; Li, Laurent; Jouzel, J.

    2011-01-01

    After some comments on climate modelling (models, scenarios, uncertainties, regional predictions), the first part reports the study of several temperature indices (minimum, average and maximum daily temperature, number of days with abnormally high or low temperature, number of days of heat wave, number of days with negative temperatures, and so on.), precipitation indices (daily and extreme precipitations, dry periods, snow falls). It also discusses soil humidity index, strong wind index, river flow rate, and sea level. The second part reports simulation results for indices in metropolitan France according to the French Aladin-Climat, LMDZ and MAR models. The third volume reports evolutions and predictions of average sea level at the planet scale and along the French coasts, and discusses impacts related to sea level change (coast erosion, submersion, salt intrusion)

  19. A synthesis of regional climate change simulations - A Scandinavian perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, J. H.; Räinsänen, J.; Iversen, T.

    2001-01-01

    Four downscaling experiments of regional climate change for the Nordic countries have been conducted with three different regional climate models (RCMs). A short synthesis of the outcome of the suite of experiments is presented as an ensemble, reflecting the different driving atmosphere-ocean...... general circulation model (AOGCM) conditions, RCM model resolution and domain size, and choice of emission scenarios. This allows the sources of uncertainties in the projections to be assessed. At the same time analysis of the climate change signal for temperature and precipitation over the period 1990......-2050 reveals strong similarities. In particular, all experiments in the suite simulate changes in the precipitation distribution towards a higher frequency of heavy precipitation....

  20. Regional Interdependence in Adaptation to Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacey, M. T.; Lubell, M.; Hummel, M.; Wang, R. Q.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Herdman, L.; Pozdnukhov, A.; Sheehan, M.

    2017-12-01

    Projections of sea level rise may differ in the pace of change, but there is clear consensus that coastal communities will be facing more frequent and severe flooding events in the coming century. As communities adapt to future conditions, infrastructure systems will be developed, modified and abandoned, with important consequences for services and resilience. Whether action or inaction is pursued, the decisions made by an individual community regarding a single infrastructure system have implications that extend spatially and temporally due to geographic and infrastructure system interactions. At the same time, there are a number of barriers to collective or coordinated action that inhibit regional solutions. This interplay between local actions and regional responses is one of the great challenges facing decision-makers grappling with both local and regional climate-change adaptation. In this talk, I present case studies of the San Francisco Bay Area that examine how shoreline infrastructure, transporation sytems and decision-making networks interact to define the regional response to local actions and the local response to regional actions. I will characterize the barriers that exist to regional solutions, and characterize three types of interdependence that may motivate decision-makers to overcome those barriers. Using these examples, I will discuss the importance of interdisciplinary analyses that integrate the natural sciences, engineering and the social science to climate change adaptation more generally.

  1. Information-analytical maintenance of AIC at regional level

    OpenAIRE

    MOYSEENKO I.P.

    2013-01-01

    Submitted approaches to system information and analytical support regional management. Formulated methodology of information and analytical support regional agribusiness management with regard to models of EHS and security settings. Describe the nature and function of monitoring objects of study.

  2. ABRUPT LONGITUDINAL MAGNETIC FIELD CHANGES IN FLARING ACTIVE REGIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrie, G. J. D.; Sudol, J. J.

    2010-01-01

    We characterize the changes in the longitudinal photospheric magnetic field during 38 X-class and 39 M-class flares within 65 0 of disk center using 1 minute GONG magnetograms. In all 77 cases, we identify at least one site in the flaring active region where clear, permanent, stepwise field changes occurred. The median duration of the field changes was about 15 minutes and was approximately equal for X-class and for M-class flares. The absolute values of the field changes ranged from the detection limit of ∼10 G to as high as ∼450 G in two exceptional cases. The median value was 69 G. Field changes were significantly stronger for X-class than for M-class flares and for limb flares than for disk-center flares. Longitudinal field changes less than 100 G tended to decrease longitudinal field strengths, both close to disk center and close to the limb, while field changes greater than 100 G showed no such pattern. Likewise, longitudinal flux strengths tended to decrease during flares. Flux changes, particularly net flux changes near disk center, correlated better than local field changes with GOES peak X-ray flux. The strongest longitudinal field and flux changes occurred in flares observed close to the limb. We estimate the change of Lorentz force associated with each flare and find that this is large enough in some cases to power seismic waves. We find that longitudinal field decreases would likely outnumber increases at all parts of the solar disk within 65 0 of disk center, as in our observations, if photospheric field tilts increase during flares as predicted by Hudson et al.

  3. Regional shoreline change and coastal erosion hazards in Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Erikson, Li H.; Harden, E. Lynne; Wallendorf, Louise

    2011-01-01

    Historical shoreline positions along the mainland Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska were digitized and analyzed to determine the long-term rate of change. Average shoreline change rates and ranges from 1947 to the mid-2000s were determined every 50 meters between Barrow and Demarcation Point, at the U.S.-Canadian border. Results show that shoreline change rates are highly variable along the coast, with an average regional shoreline change rate of-2.0 m/yr and localized rates of up to -19 m/yr. The highest erosion rates were observed at headlands, points, and associated with breached thermokarst lakes. Areas of accretion were limited, and generally associated with spit extension and minor beach accretion. In general, erosion rates increase from east to west, with overall higher rates east of Harrison Bay.

  4. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Land-Use Changes, and Regional Carbon Dynamics in United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data

  5. Agricultural management explains historic changes in regional soil carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wesemael, Bas; Paustian, Keith; Meersmans, Jeroen; Goidts, Esther; Barancikova, Gabriela; Easter, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Agriculture is considered to be among the economic sectors having the greatest greenhouse gas mitigation potential, largely via soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, it remains a challenge to accurately quantify SOC stock changes at regional to national scales. SOC stock changes resulting from SOC inventory systems are only available for a few countries and the trends vary widely between studies. Process-based models can provide insight in the drivers of SOC changes, but accurate input data are currently not available at these spatial scales. Here we use measurements from a soil inventory dating from the 1960s and resampled in 2006 covering the major soil types and agricultural regions in Belgium together with region-specific land use and management data and a process-based model. The largest decreases in SOC stocks occurred in poorly drained grassland soils (clays and floodplain soils), consistent with drainage improvements since 1960. Large increases in SOC in well drained grassland soils appear to be a legacy effect of widespread conversion of cropland to grassland before 1960. SOC in cropland increased only in sandy lowland soils, driven by increasing manure additions. Modeled land use and management impacts accounted for more than 70% of the variation in observed SOC changes, and no bias could be demonstrated. There was no significant effect of climate trends since 1960 on observed SOC changes. SOC monitoring networks are being established in many countries. Our results demonstrate that detailed and long-term land management data are crucial to explain the observed SOC changes for such networks. PMID:20679194

  6. Assessing the impact of climatic change in cold regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parry, M L; Carter, T R [eds.

    1984-01-01

    The report describes the use of models to predict the consequences of global warming in particular (cold) regions. The workshop focused on two related issues: (a) the current sensitivity of ecosystems and farming systems to climatic variability, and (b) the range of impacts likely for certain changes of climate. This report addresses four broad themes: (1) the nature of the research problem; (2) methods of evaluating sensitivity to climatic variability; (3) methods of measuring the impact of climate change; and (4) how these methods might be refined. (ACR)

  7. Compilation of the Regional-Level Japan Industrial Productivity Database (R-JIP) (Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    TOKUI Joji; MAKINO Tatsuji; FUKAO Kyoji; MIYAGAWA Tsutomu; ARAI Nobuyuki; ARAI Sonoe; INUI Tomohiko; KAWASAKI Kazuyasu; KODAMA Naomi; NOGUCHI Naohiro

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the construction of the Regional-Level Japan Industrial Productivity Database (R-JIP), which covers the period from 1970 through 2008 and comprises annual industrial output and factor input data of Japan's 47 prefectures classified by 23 industry. Output is measured in terms of value added, while the input data consist of labor input and capital service input, which take both (time series) quality changes and (cross-sectional) quality differences into account. This databa...

  8. ECG changes after a session of regional intraarterial hyperglycemia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korobchenko, Z.A.; Livshits, L.I.

    1988-01-01

    ECG changes after a session of regional intraarterial hyperglycemia (RIH) in 13 patients (the mean age of 49 years) with locally advanced cancer of the tongue, oral mucosa and oropharynx were presented. Taking into account the mean age of patients and the negative ECG time course after a RIH session, the necessity of patients' examination (including ECG after a RIH session and, when indicated, a consultation by a cardiologist) was emphasized

  9. Characterisation of Agri-Landscape Systems at a Regional Level: A Case Study in Northern Tuscany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariassunta Galli

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Preserving our landscape in sustainable development processes is now widely considered as fundamental. It is a complex and evolving issue that can be tackled from several perspectives. Agronomy can contribute to analyzing the relationships between agricultural production systems (cropping, farming and agricultural systems at different levels (field, farm, and region and the agricultural landscape (in terms of patches, matrixes, dynamics, etc. This is of particular interest where the relationships between “what and how” are produced by agricultural activities and the landscape are changing. In this case their own reciprocity may represent an opportunity to analyze complex systems, such as the characterization of agri-landscapes at a regional level. We propose a case study developed as an up-scaling analytical process from a farm to a regional level. The result was the identification of six main agri-landscape systems highlighting the landscape drivers that are changing the traditional landscape of a rural region in Northern Tuscany (Lunigiana.

  10. [Land Use Pattern Change and Regional Sustainability Evaluation of Wetland in Jiaogang Lake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Cai, Yi-min; Bai, Yan-ying; Chen, Wei-ping; Yang, Xiu-chao

    2015-06-01

    Changes in land use and sustainability evaluation of wetland in Jiaogang Lake from 1995 to 2013 were analyzed, based on the land use change models and an index system, supported by RS, GIS, and social statistical data. The results showed: (1) dry land, paddy field, and building land were the predominant landscape in the study area. The arable land was mainly converted during 1995-2000, which was driven by the extension of agriculture, and the building land increased significantly during 2010-2013, which was driven by the tourism development. (2) Compared to the beginning research area, the building land increased by 123.3%, and the wetland decreased by 23.15%. The land system was at risk for a low proportion of wetland, scarcity of unused land, and the fragmented landscape. (3) The regional sustainability results were bad level, bad level, poor level, good level, and poor level during the different periods, with some room for improvement. (4) The fitness of regional sustainability in study area yielded satisfactory results in 2010, owing to the rapid growth of regional productivity and the regional stability. Since 2010, with the increasing environmental load, the regional sustainability fell down to the poor level. The obstruction of sustainable development is necessary to be addressed in the study area.

  11. Change of direction ability test differentiates higher level and lower level soccer referees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Los, Arcos A; Grande, I; Casajús, JA

    2016-01-01

    This report examines the agility and level of acceleration capacity of Spanish soccer referees and investigates the possible differences between field referees of different categories. The speed test consisted of 3 maximum acceleration stretches of 15 metres. The change of direction ability (CODA) test used in this study was a modification of the Modified Agility Test (MAT). The study included a sample of 41 Spanish soccer field referees from the Navarre Committee of Soccer Referees divided into two groups: i) the higher level group (G1, n = 20): 2ndA, 2ndB and 3rd division referees from the Spanish National Soccer League (28.43 ± 1.39 years); and ii) the lower level group (G2, n = 21): Navarre Provincial League soccer referees (29.54 ± 1.87 years). Significant differences were found with respect to the CODA between G1 (5.72 ± 0.13 s) and G2 (6.06 ± 0.30 s), while no differences were encountered between groups in acceleration ability. No significant correlations were obtained in G1 between agility and the capacity to accelerate. Significant correlations were found between sprint and agility times in the G2 and in the total group. The results of this study showed that agility can be used as a discriminating factor for differentiating between national and regional field referees; however, no observable differences were found over the 5 and 15 m sprint tests. PMID:27274111

  12. Regional differences in climate change impacts on groundwater and stream discharge in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Britt S.B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.

    2007-01-01

    of the hydrological response to the simulated climate change is highly dependant on the geological setting of the model area. In the Jylland area, characterized by sandy top soils and large interconnected aquifers, groundwater recharge increases significantly, resulting in higher groundwater levels and increasing......Regional impact studies of the effects of future climate change are necessary because projected changes in meteorological variables vary regionally and different hydrological systems can react in various ways to the same changes. In this study the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge...... simulates changes in groundwater head, recharge, and discharge. Precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration increase for both the A2 and B2 scenarios. This results in a significant increase in mean annual net precipitation, but with decreased values in the summer months. The magnitude...

  13. Twitter Analytics: Are the U.S. Coastal Regions Prepared for Climate Change in 2017?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singleton, S. L.; Kumar, S.

    2017-12-01

    According to the U.S. National Climate Assessment, the Southeast Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States are particularly susceptible to sea level rise, heat waves, hurricanes and less accessibility to clean water due to climate change. This is because of the extreme variation of topography in these two regions. Preparation for climate change consequences can only occur with conversation, which is a method of bringing awareness to the issue. Over the past decade, social media has taken over the spectrum of information exchange in the United States. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is a field that is emerging with the growth in popularity of social media. SNA is the practice of analyzing trends in volume and opinion of a population of social media users. Twitter, one popular social media platform, is one of the largest microblogging sites in the world, and it provides an abundance of data related to the trending topics such as climate change. Twitter analytics is a type of SNA performed on data from the tweets of Twitter users. In this work, Twitter analytics is performed on the data generated from the Twitter users in the United States, who were talking about climate change, global warming and/or CO2, over the course of one year (July 2016 - June 2017). Specifically, a regional comparative analysis on the coastal U.S. regions was conducted to recognize which region(s) is/are falling behind on the conversation about climate change. Sentiment analysis was also performed to understand the trends in opinion about climate change that vary over time. Experimental results determined that the southeast coast of the United States is deficient in their discussion about climate change compared to the other coastal regions. Igniting the conversation about this issue in these regions will mitigate the disasters due to climate change by increasing awareness in the people of these regions so they can properly prepare.

  14. Change Management and Capacity Building for Regional Banking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    From the regulatory authorities led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), to each of the 25 banks that emerged, the successful conclusion of the first phase of banking reforms demonstrates a level of change management capacity deemed vital in successful corporate transformation. However, to successfully position ...

  15. Monitoring road safety development at regional level: A case study in the ASEAN region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Faan; Wang, Jianjun; Wu, Jiaorong; Chen, Xiaohong; Zegras, P Christopher

    2017-09-01

    Persistent monitoring of progress, evaluating the results of interventions and recalibrating to achieve continuous improvement over time is widely recognized as being crucial towards the successful development of road safety. In the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region there is a lack of well-resourced teams that contain multidisciplinary safety professionals, and specialists in individual countries, who are able to carry out this work effectively. In this context, not only must the monitoring framework be effective, it must also be easy to use and adapt. This paper provides a case study that can be easily reproduced; based on an updated and refined Road Safety Development Index (RSDI), by means of the RSR (Rank-sum ratio)-based model, for monitoring/reporting road safety development at regional level. The case study was focused on the road safety achievements in eleven Southeast Asian countries; identifying the areas of poor performance, potential problems and delays. These countries are finally grouped into several classes based on an overview of their progress and achievements regarding to road safety. The results allow the policymakers to better understand their own road safety progress toward their desired impact; more importantly, these results enable necessary interventions to be made in a quick and timely manner. Keeping action plans on schedule if things are not progressing as desired. This would avoid 'reinventing the wheel' and trial and error approaches to road safety, making the implementation of action plans more effective. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. State-Level Reforms That Support College-Level Program Changes in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowling, R. Edward; Morrissey, Sharon; Fouts, George M.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter describes the concurrent reforms occurring in North Carolina--both campus-level changes focused on such issues as developing structured programs of study and state-level reforms aimed at supporting the campus efforts.

  17. Dialectics of Rational Change Management in Regional Social Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Ivanovich Tatarkin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the attention is paid to a role of service-producing industries rendering social services, promoting human development in the modern state. Theoretical positions of scientists considering meaning of the social benefits and need of active state support of the social sphere are generalized. The condition of the Russian service-producing industries is considered, the comparative analysis of indicators of their activity with indicators of service-producing industries of other countries is carried out. In view of indicators of the efficiency ratings of national education systems, world countries on the health systems efficiency, world countries on the level of social development of 2014, the author’s conceptual approach is offered; it considers interconditionality and interdependence of level of public financing of the social sphere and dynamics of a contribution of service-producing industries to the human capital development providing a gain of gross domestic product of the country. Need of innovative changes in socio-economic systems of service-producing industries for the efficiency increase of their activity, taking into account the received results — first of all in health care is proved. Theoretical approaches to management of changes in socio-economic systems are investigated. On the basis of the conducted research, the created theoretical basis of the level increase of change management in open socioeconomic systems for the purpose of the theoretical and methodological approaches to development to change management in relation to health sector, the optimization model of management of health care organizations ranging controlled and uncontrollable changes is offered. The use possibilities of management optimization by ranging controlled and uncontrollable changes in health sector of different management levels are confirmed by the high rates of performance efficiency on micro-, meso- and macrolevel in industry on the

  18. Managing Change in the Holding Company as a Factor in Solving Strategic Problems of the Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krivtsov, Artem I.; Polinova, Ludmila V.; Chupina, Irina P.

    2016-01-01

    The relevance of the investigated problem is caused by the necessity of changes in holding company's management systems to address the strategic problems of the region. The purpose of the study is to develop a method of forming teams at the corporate level for the coordination and implementation of programs for the implementation of reforms and…

  19. Semi-arid Northeast Brazil: integrated modelling of regional development and global change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, Martinus S.; Fuhr, Dagmar; Döring, Andreas; Unruh, Jon D.; Krol, Maarten S.; Kliot, Nurit

    2004-01-01

    Societies in semi-arid areas in developing regions are amongst those most vulnerable to climate variability and potentially most vulnerable to climate change. The vulnerability to climate variability emerges from a combination of the level of availability of natural resources and the human

  20. Regional homogeneity changes in patients with primary insomnia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Tianyue [Guangdong No. 2 Provincial People' s Hospital of Southern Medical University, The Third Clinical Medical College of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou (China); Li, Shumei; Jiang, Guihua; Lin, Chulan; Li, Meng; Ma, Xiaofen; Zhan, Wenfeng; Fang, Jin; Li, Liming; Li, Cheng; Tian, Junzhang [Guangdong No. 2 Provincial People' s Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou (China)

    2016-05-15

    The study aimed to explore the regional spontaneous activity changes in primary insomnia (PI) patients. Based on the resting-state fMRI datasets acquired from 59 PI patients and 47 healthy controls, a two-sample t-test was performed on individual normalized regional homogeneity (ReHo) maps. Relationships between abnormal ReHo values and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), the self-rating anxiety scale (SAS) and the self-rating depression scale (SDS) were investigated with Pearson correlation analysis. In PI patients, we found increased ReHo in the left insula, right anterior cingulate gyrus, bilateral precentral gyrus and left cuneus, as well as decreased ReHo in the right middle cingulate cortex and left fusiform (p < 0.05, AlphaSim-corrected). We also found a significant positive correlation between increased ReHo in the left insula and SAS scores, decreased ReHo in the right middle cingulated cortex and SDS, SAS scores as well as a negative correlation between increased ReHo in the right precentral gyrus and SDS scores (p < 0.05). Our study found abnormal spontaneous activities in multiple brain regions, especially in emotion-related areas in PI patients. Alterative activities in these regions might contribute to an understanding the intrinsic functional architecture of insomnia and its clinical features. (orig.)

  1. Regional homogeneity changes in patients with primary insomnia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Tianyue; Li, Shumei; Jiang, Guihua; Lin, Chulan; Li, Meng; Ma, Xiaofen; Zhan, Wenfeng; Fang, Jin; Li, Liming; Li, Cheng; Tian, Junzhang

    2016-01-01

    The study aimed to explore the regional spontaneous activity changes in primary insomnia (PI) patients. Based on the resting-state fMRI datasets acquired from 59 PI patients and 47 healthy controls, a two-sample t-test was performed on individual normalized regional homogeneity (ReHo) maps. Relationships between abnormal ReHo values and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), the self-rating anxiety scale (SAS) and the self-rating depression scale (SDS) were investigated with Pearson correlation analysis. In PI patients, we found increased ReHo in the left insula, right anterior cingulate gyrus, bilateral precentral gyrus and left cuneus, as well as decreased ReHo in the right middle cingulate cortex and left fusiform (p < 0.05, AlphaSim-corrected). We also found a significant positive correlation between increased ReHo in the left insula and SAS scores, decreased ReHo in the right middle cingulated cortex and SDS, SAS scores as well as a negative correlation between increased ReHo in the right precentral gyrus and SDS scores (p < 0.05). Our study found abnormal spontaneous activities in multiple brain regions, especially in emotion-related areas in PI patients. Alterative activities in these regions might contribute to an understanding the intrinsic functional architecture of insomnia and its clinical features. (orig.)

  2. Implications of expected climate change in the Mediterranean Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeftic, L. [United Nations Environment Programme, Athens (Greece). Mediterranean Coordinating Unit

    1993-09-01

    A Task Team was established in 1987 with the objective of preparing a Mediterranean regional overview of the implications of climate change for coastal, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, as well as for socio-economic structures and activities. The paper presents a summary of the results of the first phase (1987-1989) of the work of the Task Team. Assuming a temperature rise of 1.5{degree}C by the year 2025, land degradation would increase, water resources decline, agricultural production would decline, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems could be damaged. Impacts of climatic change when combined with the greater impacts of non-climatic factors (e.g. population increases, development plans) would increase the probability of catastrophic events and hasten their occurrence. Case studies on six sites are to be finalised by the end of 1992. Despite the high quality of the Task Team`s study the impact of its work on national authorities and international bodies was below expectation. A specific regional scenario on climate change in the Mediterranean Basin due to global warming was developed following the Task Team`s recommendation. A summary of the approach and results is presented. 25 refs., 2 figs.

  3. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    of Extreme Sea Level 11.3.1 An Introduction to Storms Both mid-latitude and tropical storms are associated with extremes of sea level. Storm surges are generated by low atmospheric pressure and intense winds over the ocean. The latter also cause high wave... timescales, extremes and mean-sea-level change are both major factors in determining coastal evolution including the development of coastal ecosystems. It will be seen below that, although it is difficult to determine how mean sea level has changed...

  4. Changes in regional and overall lung function after bronchography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richez, M.; Ravez, P.; Godart, G.; Halloy, J.L.; Robience, Y.

    1980-01-01

    This investigation compares the effects of unilateral bronchography on classical pulmonary function paramerts (spirometry, CO transfer, flowvolume curve, and arterial blood gases)and radioisotopic measurements by means of 99 sup(m)Tc-labeled microspheres and 81 sup(m)Kr. The regional changes of ventilation and perfusion were quantified by a radioisotopic index, which was established for each zone of interest: explored lung and unexplored lung. The quantitative study of regional perfusion and ventilation reveals significant reduction of ventilation for lung bases, but not for lung apices. The radioisotopic measurements show a reduction of perfusion parallel to the reduction of ventilation. There is no significant correlation between traditional pulmonary function parameters and isotopic indices. Radioisotopy proved a sensitive tool for investigation of unilateral alterations. (orig.) [de

  5. Investigation of switching region in superlattice phase change memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohyanagi, T.; Takaura, N.

    2016-10-01

    We investigated superlattice phase change memories (PCMs) to clarify which regions were responsible for switching. We observed atomic structures in a superlattice PCM film with a stack of GeTe / Sb2Te3 layers using atomically resolved EDX maps, and we found an intermixed region with three atom species of the Ge, Sb and Te around the top GeTe layer under the top electrode. We also found that a device with a GeTe layer on an Sb2Te3 layer without superlattice structure had the same switching characteristics as a device with a superlattice PCM, that had the same top GeTe layer. We developed and fabricated a modified superlattice PCM that attained ultra low Reset / Set currents under 60 μ A .

  6. Evaluate prevailing climate change on Great Lakes water levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Islam, M.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:'In this paper, results of a comprehensive water mass balance modeling for the Great Lakes against prevailing and different anticipated climate change scenarios would be presented. Modeling is done in evaluating the changes in the lake storages and then changes in the lake's water level considering present condition, uncertainty and variability of climate and hydrologic conditions in the future. Inflow-outflow and consequent changes in the five Great Lake's storages are simulated for the last 30 years and then projected to evaluate the changes in the lake storages for the next 50 years. From the predicted changes in the lake storage data, water level is calculated using mass to linear conversion equation. Modeling and analysis results are expected to be helpful in understanding the possible impacts of the climate change on the Great Lakes water environment and preparing strategic plan for the sustainable management of lake's water resources. From the recent past, it is observed that there is a depleting trend in the lakes water level and hence there is a potential threat to lake's water environment and uncertainty of the availability of quality and quantity of water for the future generations, especially against prevailing and anticipated climate changes. For this reason, it is an urgent issue of understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on the Great Lake's water levels and storages. (author)

  7. ANALYSIS AND PLANNING OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT - CONTEXTUAL VARIABLES TO DEVELOP A MODEL FOR MONITORING FINANCIAL INDICATORS AT REGIONAL LEVEL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRIS TINA GRADEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Application of quantitative techniques in regional analysis can provide an understanding of both the change in time of regional economic performance and the interdependencies between economic sectors, including the use of projections to test the potential future development of the region. Qualitative techniques allow also the explanation of the reason for regional development patterns occurring in a region and the improvement of analysts' ability to reflect on the results and economic opportunities for a future based on collective experience, wisdom and judgment of the actors in region economies.

  8. Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

    2017-11-01

    This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to

  9. Changes in Absolute Sea Level Along U.S. Coasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map shows changes in absolute sea level from 1960 to 2016 based on satellite measurements. Data were adjusted by applying an inverted barometer (air pressure)...

  10. Climate change adapatation response at local government level

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The climate change response policy gives the mandate to all municipalities and other levels of government to develop and implement climate chnage adaptation response. The availability of appropriate information is essential for this process...

  11. Evaluation of Water Quality Change of Brackish Lake in Snowy Cold Regions Accompanying Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudo, K.; Hasegawa, H.; Nakatsugawa, M.

    2017-12-01

    This study addresses evaluation of water quality change of brackish lake based on the estimation of hydrological quantities resulting from long-term hydrologic process accompanying climate change. For brackish lakes, such as Lake Abashiri in Eastern Hokkaido, there are concerns about water quality deterioration due to increases in water temperature and salinity. For estimating some hydrological quantities in the Abashiri River basin, including Lake Abashiri, we propose the following methods: 1) MRI-NHRCM20, a regional climate model based on the Representative Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC AR5, 2) generalized extreme value distribution for correcting bias, 3) kriging adopted variogram for downscaling and 4) Long term Hydrologic Assessment model considering Snow process (LoHAS). In addition, we calculate the discharge from Abashiri River into Lake Abashiri by using estimated hydrological quantities and a tank model, and simulate impacts on water quality of Lake Abashiri due to climate change by setting necessary conditions, including the initial conditions of water temperature and water quality, the pollution load from the inflow rivers, the duration of ice cover and salt pale boundary. The result of the simulation of water quality indicates that climate change is expected to raise the water temperature of the lake surface by approximately 4°C and increase salinity of surface of the lake by approximately 4psu, also if salt pale boundary in the lake raises by approximately 2-m, the concentration of COD, T-N and T-P in the bottom of the lake might increase. The processes leading to these results are likely to be as follows: increased river water flows in along salt pale boundary in lake, causing dynamic flow of surface water; saline bottom water is entrained upward, where it mixes with surface water; and the shear force acting at salt pale boundary helps to increase the supply of salts from bottom saline water to the surface water. In the future, we will

  12. Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

    2012-07-01

    The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

  13. Decadal changes of weather types in the alpine region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stefanicki, G.; Talkner, P.; Weber, R.O. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    The annual occurrence of different weather types of Schuepp`s synoptic classification in the Alpine region has changed since the beginning of its recording 1945. The annual frequency (number of days) of convective types has increased and that of advective types has decreased. In parallel the number of long-lasting convective episodes rose and the number of long-lasting advective episodes lessened. Most of the change took place in winter. The frequencies of different weather types and the annual mean of certain meteorological parameters are significantly correlated. Moreover, there is a strong interdependence between the subclass of high pressure types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. (author) 3 figs., 3 refs.

  14. How Changing Human Lifestyles are Shaping Europe's Regional Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mee, L. D.; Lowe, C. D.; Langmead, O.; McQuatters-Gollop, A.; Attrill, M.; Cooper, P.; Gilbert, A.; Knudsen, S.; Garnacho, E.

    2007-05-01

    European society is experiencing unprecedented changes triggered by expansion of the European Union, the fall of Communism, economic growth and the onset of globalisation. Europe's regional seas, the Baltic, Black Sea, Mediterranean and North-East Atlantic (including the North Sea), provide key goods and services to the human population but have suffered from severe degradation in past decades. Their integrity as coupled social and ecological systems depends on how humanity will anticipate potential problems and deal with its ecological footprint in the future. We report the outcome of an EU-funded 15-country, 28 institution project entitled European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems (ELME). Our studies were designed to inform new EU policy and legislation that incorporates Ecosystem-Based Management. ELME has modelled the key relationships between economic and social drivers (D), environmental pressures (P) and changes in the state of the environment (S) in Europe's regional seas. We examined four key issues in each sea: habitat change, eutrophication, chemical pollution and fisheries. We developed conceptual models for each regional sea and employed a novel stochastic modelling technique to examine the interrelationship between key components of the conceptual models. We used the models to examine 2-3 decade projections of current trends in D, P and S and how a number of alternative development scenarios might modify these trends. These simulations demonstrate the vulnerability of Europe's seas to human pressure. As affluence increases in countries acceding to the EU, so does the demand for marine goods and services. There are `winners' and `losers' amongst marine species; the winners are often species that are opportunistic invaders or those with low economic value. In the case of eutrophication, semi-enclosed seas such as the Baltic or Black Sea are already affected by the `legacy of the past'; nutrients that have accumulated in soils, ground waters and

  15. Dynamics in Responsible Land Administration; Change at Five Levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zevenbergen, Jaap; de Vries, W.T.; Bennett, Rohan

    2018-01-01

    Fundamentally, the term 'administration' suggests bureaucratic, controlled and steady, if not slow, paces of change. However the relations between people and land, that land administration attempts to capture, are the very opposite and are changing rapidly. At all levels of abstraction, land

  16. Measuring Resistance to Change at the Within-Session Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonneau, Francois; Rios, Americo; Cabrera, Felipe

    2006-01-01

    Resistance to change is often studied by measuring response rate in various components of a multiple schedule. Response rate in each component is normalized (that is, divided by its baseline level) and then log-transformed. Differential resistance to change is demonstrated if the normalized, log-transformed response rate in one component decreases…

  17. Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooter, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development. It is populated with linked or fully coupled models that address nutrient research questions such as, "How might future policy, climate or land cover change in the Mississippi River Basin affect Nitrogen and Phosphorous loadings to the Gulf of Mexico" or, "What are the management implications of regional-scale land management changes for the sustainability of air, land and water quality?" This second question requires explicit consideration of economic (e.g. sector prices) and societal (e.g. land management) factors. Metrics that illustrate biosphere-atmosphere interactions such as atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric N loading to surface water, soil organic N and N percolation to groundwater are calculated. An example application has been completed that is driven by a coupled agricultural and energy sector model scenario. The economic scenario assumes that by 2022 there is: 1) no detectable change in weather patterns relative to 2002; 2) a concentration of stover processing facilities in the Upper Midwest; 3) increasing offshore Pacific and Atlantic marine transportation; and 4) increasing corn, soybean and wheat production that meets future demand for food, feed and energy feedstocks. This production goal is reached without adding or removing agricultural land area whose extent is defined by the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2002v2011 classes 81 and 82. This goal does require, however, crop shifts and agricultural management changes. The multi-media system response over our U.S. 12km rectangular grid resolution analysis suggests that there are regions of potential environmental and health costs, as well as large areas that could experience unanticipated environmental and health

  18. Changes of population by age and gender structure of Regions in the Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Resul Hamiti

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the changes of population by age and the gender structure in the regions of the Republic of Macedonia. Age and gender is very important not only for the development of demographic process but also for the development of regions. They play an important role in planning the health care needs and other services with the socio-economic and cultural character. In this sense they affect the performance of demographic processes (births, deaths, marriages, etc. and are a result of bilateral relations fertility, mortality, migration movements and other social processes. The main objective of this paper is to identify the aging phenomenon of population in state level and regions. This paper also dedicates special importance to the changes of age and sex structure, during the period between1981-2014 in the regions of the republic of Macedonia.

  19. CLUSTER ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION BY LEVEL OF INNOVATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Shchur

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available   SWOT-analysis of the threats and benefits of innovation development strategy of Ivano-Frankivsk region in the context of financial support was сonducted. Methodical approach to determine of public-private partnerships potential that is tool of innovative economic development financing was identified. Cluster analysis of possibilities of forming public-private partnership in a particular region was carried out. Optimal set of problem areas that require urgent solutions and financial security is defined on the basis of cluster approach. It will help to form practical recommendations for the formation of an effective financial mechanism in the regions of Ukraine. Key words: the mechanism of innovation development financial provision, innovation development, public-private partnerships, cluster analysis, innovative development strategy.

  20. Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankar Adhikari

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being used to adapt to a changing environment through key informant interviews and focus group discussions. At the household level, livelihood diversification, changes in cropping patterns and farming practices, use of multipurpose plant species and income-generation activities were identified as adaptation strategies. Among major strategies at the community level were community forestry-based climate adaptation plans of action for forest and water resource management. Landscape-level adaptation strategies were large-scale collaborative projects and programs, such as Ecosystem-based Adaptation and Chitwan Annapurna Landscape conservation; which had implications at both the local and landscape-level. A proper blending and integration of adaptation strategies from individual households through to the community and to the landscape level is needed for implementing effective adaptation in the region.

  1. Entrepreneurial Capabilities at the Regional Level in Multinational Enterprises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoenen, Anne K.; Nell, Phillip Christopher; Ambos, Björn

    of RHQs’ entrepreneurial capabilities. We illustrate our arguments on the basis of data on European RHQs. In addition, our study opens up for an interesting discussion of these mechanisms’ interdependence. This contributes to our understanding of RHQs as important entrepreneurial actors within the MNE......, the structuring of regions, and the importance of MNE external embeddedness....

  2. Regional cerebral blood flow changes in chronic polidrug abusers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quintana, J.C.; Olea, E.; Seijas, D.; Haydn, V.

    2002-01-01

    Chronic exposure to cocaine and other drugs are in clear association with a variety of medical complications, involving many organ systems. The Central Nervous System (CNS) is particularly sensitive to such exposures: permanent behavioral, psychiatric and neurological complications are common in this group of patients. Regional cerebral blood perfusion (rCBF) analysis has been used to study these conditions with PET and SPECT for a long time. According to the literature, it is clear that drug exposure (particularly cocaine) does produce significant changes over rCBF, nevertheless the vast majority of SPECT and some PET studies are difficult to reproduce because they were analyzed using subjective (visual) and/or ROI's to address the changes. Aim: To study the pattern of rCBF change of chronic cocaine and other drugs (polidrug) users/abusers population using brain SPECT and SPM (Statistical Parametric Mapping). Material and Methods: From a population of 163 addicted patients, 55 chronic cocaine and other drugs users/abuser were selected. A pre-treatment brain SPECT under basal conditions was performed in all of them. 99mTc-ECD was used as rCBF tracer and SPM (Statistical Parametric Mapping) as a framework to address statistically significant rCBF variations of change. The whole group was compared with a population of normal patients (both sexes, aged between 20 and 40 y.o., no history of trauma, drug exposure, neurological or psychiatric disorders). Results: Significant areas of reduced (hypoperfusion) and increased (hyperperfusion) rCBF were identified in the patients group. The hypoperfusion areas involve mainly the left insula region and the surrounding frontal and temporal lobe and a smaller area in the anterior and inferior portion of the right frontal lobe. The increased perfusion areas were identified at the left thalamus and the right fronto-parietal cortical region. Conclusion: Our results suggest that chronic cocaine exposure produce activation/damage to

  3. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

    2018-05-01

    Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

  4. Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.

    2012-04-01

    Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.

  5. Continental and Marine Environmental changes in Europe induced by Global Climate variability and Regional Palaeography Changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popescu, S.M.

    2008-12-01

    ), completed by magneto-stratigraphy for deposits prior to Mid-Quaternary; (2) comprehensive counting of pollen grains (150 per sample, Pinus or any overabundant taxon excepted) and dinoflagellate cysts (200-300 per sample); (3) interpreting the resulting data with respect to ecological requirements. High- to very high-resolution analyses provides results directly comparable with classical oxygen isotope curves. These signals can therefore also be tuned to the frequency of eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. Although palynological proxies can be considered as standard, my integrated approach hoists them at the level of the most competitive methods. Another aspect consists in its present-day background, based on many surface samples from the Mediterranean, Marmara and Black seas, taken during several cruises and sampling parties at IFREMER-Brest and WHOI. To develop parallel analyses of pollen grains and dinoflagellate cysts offers additional considerable interests, such as (1) continuous records of climatic changes and sea-level variations independently from sediment types, and (2) quantifications (using transfer functions) of climate for both continental and marine (to brackish) realms as well as of physical oceanic parameters (SST, SSS, nutrient content etc.). Results and research in progress: Using pollen grains analysis, I developed investigations on vegetation dynamics and paleo-climate reconstructions for the whole Mediterranean region and Western Europe extended to the Late Cenozoic. Thanks to the high-chronologic resolution: a. I established the response of regional vegetation to eccentricity forcing in SW Romania (Dacic Basin) and Black Sea (DSDP Site380) whatever the sediment types (Popescu, 2001, 2006; Popescu et al., 2006a); b. I was the first to demonstrate the precession forcing on regional vegetation (Popescu et al., 2006b) through the Lupoaia pollen record (SW Romania); c. in the frame of two PhD theses that I co-supervise, pollen grain and

  6. Changes in precipitation recycling over arid regions in the Northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ruolin; Wang, Chenghai; Wu, Di

    2018-01-01

    Changes of precipitation recycling (PR) in Northern Hemisphere from 1981 to 2010 are investigated using a water recycling model. The temporal and spatial characteristics of recycling in arid regions are analyzed. The results show that the regional precipitation recycling ratio (PRR) in arid regions is larger than in wet regions. PRR in arid regions has obvious seasonal variation, ranging from more than 25 % to less than 1 %. Furthermore, in arid regions, PRR is significantly negatively correlated with precipitation (correlation coefficient r = -0.5, exceeding the 99 % significance level). Moreover, the trend of PRR is related to changes in precipitation in two ways. PRR decreases with increasing precipitation in North Africa, which implies that less locally evaporated vapor converts into actual precipitation. However, in Asian arid regions, the PRR increases as precipitation reduces, which implies that more locally evaporated vapor converts into rainfall. Further, as PRR mainly depends on evapotranspiration, the PRR trend in Asian arid regions develops as temperature increases and more evaporated vapor enters the atmosphere to offset the reduced rainfall.

  7. Regional changes in spine posture at lift onset with changes in lift distance and lift style

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gill, K.P.; Bennet, S.J.; Savelsbergh, G.J.P.; van Dieen, J.H.

    2007-01-01

    STUDY DESIGN. Repeated measures experiment. OBJECTIVE. To determine the effect of changes in horizontal lift distance on the amount of flexion, at lift onset, in different spine regions when using different lift styles. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA. By approximating spine bending during lifting as a

  8. Plastic-covered agriculture forces the regional climate to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, D.; Chen, J.; Chen, X.; Cao, X.

    2016-12-01

    The practice of plastic-covered agriculture as a solution to moderate the dilemma of global food shortage, meanwhile, brings great pressure to the local environment. This research was conducted to reveal the impacts of plastic-covered agritulture on regional climate change by experimenting in a plastic greenhouse (PG) dominated area - Weifang district, Shandong province, China. Based on a new plastic greenhouse index (PGI) proposed in this study, we reconstructed the spatial distribution of PG across 1995-2015 in the study area. With that, land surface temperature (LST) dataset combined with surface evapotranspiration, surface reflectance and precipitation data, was applied to the probe of PG's climatic impacts. Results showed that PG, in the study area, has experienced a striking spatial expansion during the past 20 years, and more important, the expansion correlated strongly to the local climate change. It showed that the annual precipitation, in the study area, decreased during these years, which constrasts to a slightly increasing trend of the adjacent districts without PG construction. In addition, resulting from the greenhouse effect, PG area presented a harsher increase of surface temperature compared to the non-PG areas. Our study also telled that the evapotranspiration of PG area has been largely cutted down ascribing to the gas tightness of plastic materials, showing a decline around 40%. This indicates a way that the development of plastic-covered agriculture may contribute to the change of the local climate.

  9. Measuring and Assessment the Noise Level in Different Regions in Baghdad City And Compare it with The Allowable Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibtihaj Abdulwahhab Abdulrazzak

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study includes measurement of the noise level of four regions in the city of Baghdad (industrial region, commercial region, residential region and quiet region and compare the value of noise in each region with the World Health Organization (WHO allowable limits, and the effect of noise on human health was explained. The "sound level meter (SLM" instrument measuring the noise value in the four regions, three measurement per month through one year was recorded (one measurement every ten days from 1/1/2015 to 30/12/2015. The noise level of the industrial region (75dB compared with the World Health Organization level allowable limit (65dB, while the commercial region (76.28dB versus (55dB and the residential region (74.94dB versus (50dB and the quiet region was (62.36dB versus (40dB of the (WHO allowable limit.

  10. Central America Regional Climate Change Program: Tools for Your Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Dan; Irving, Bill; Yeager, Carey

    2006-01-01

    USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team, in partnership with EPA, NASA, Oak Ridge National Lab, and the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD), have had a significant impact on the region's ability to monitor, mitigate, and adapt to environmental threats. Environmental decision-making tools and data are posted on a website (SERVIR: http://servir.nsstc.nasa.pov/home.html)that provides satellite and geographic data and maps to anybody with an Internet connection. The SERVIR program has been identified as the model for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) - a major international effort to develop a 21st century system for environmental management and disaster response. In coordination with the USAID/EPA program, NASA has developed a GIs tool that enables countries to examine their forest cover and document changes on an annual basis. This information is used in calculating carbon emissions as part of greenhouse gas inventories, but also serves a valuable monitoring function. In addition, USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team in collaboration with EPA are helping countries meet their obligations as signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). EPA is assisting Central American governments to improve the quality of their greenhouse gas emission inventories reported to the UNFCCC through the development of tools and improvements in data quality. New EPA tools developed include software to automatically calculate greenhouse gas emissions for the agricultural and forestry sector inventories, determine key sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and document institutional arrangements. Several of these tools are state of the art and are comparable to tools currently used in the U.S.

  11. Long-term runoff changes in regions of Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miklanek, Pavol; Pekarova; Pavla

    2004-01-01

    Mean annual runoff variability includes both natural and anthropogenic (climate change) impacts. Aim of the paper is to identify the long-term trends and the cyclic runoff components of selected Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000, and of the Danube river for the period 1840-2000. The variability is analysed by the long-term runoff trends of 27 Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000. The stations were included into the Slovak National Climate Program and they are supposed not to be influenced by anthropogenic activities except of possible climate change. Comparison of the monthly runoff series of the 27 rivers allowed us to draw 3 regions with different runoff trends on the territory of Slovakia (constant trend in Northern and Eastern Slovakia, slow decrease in Central Slovakia, and rapid decrease in Southern Slovakia; The identification of different cyclic components of the runoff series is included. The length of the series allows to identify the 22-year cycles as maximum. By means of the longer runoff series of the Danube river it is shown that the more dry periods occurred in the central Europe and Slovakia in mid 19 th century. The longer Danube series were used also to find the longer runoff cycles of about 31 and 46 years. The mean annual temperature in Europe was lower by 0.6 o C in mid 19 th century compared to 1990s. The temperature increase is put down to climate change impact. The driest period shown by Danube runoff series in mid 19 th century occurred before the start of the climate change. Therefore it is probable that the long-term runoff variability has its own dynamics as well. (Author)

  12. Change in avian abundance predicted from regional forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twedt, Daniel J.; Tirpak, John M.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd; Thompson, Frank R.; Uihlein, William B.; Fitzgerald, Jane A.

    2010-01-01

    An inability to predict population response to future habitat projections is a shortcoming in bird conservation planning. We sought to predict avian response to projections of future forest conditions that were developed from nationwide forest surveys within the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. To accomplish this, we evaluated the historical relationship between silvicolous bird populations and FIA-derived forest conditions within 25 ecoregions that comprise the southeastern United States. We aggregated forest area by forest ownership, forest type, and tree size-class categories in county-based ecoregions for 5 time periods spanning 1963-2008. We assessed the relationship of forest data with contemporaneous indices of abundance for 24 silvicolous bird species that were obtained from Breeding Bird Surveys. Relationships between bird abundance and forest inventory data for 18 species were deemed sufficient as predictive models. We used these empirically derived relationships between regional forest conditions and bird populations to predict relative changes in abundance of these species within ecoregions that are anticipated to coincide with projected changes in forest variables through 2040. Predicted abundances of these 18 species are expected to remain relatively stable in over a quarter (27%) of the ecoregions. However, change in forest area and redistribution of forest types will likely result in changed abundance of some species within many ecosystems. For example, abundances of 11 species, including pine warbler (Dendroica pinus), brown-headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla), and chuckwills- widow (Caprimulgus carolinensis), are projected to increase within more ecoregions than ecoregions where they will decrease. For 6 other species, such as blue-winged warbler (Vermivora pinus), Carolina wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus), and indigo bunting (Passerina cyanea), we projected abundances will decrease within more ecoregions than ecoregions where they will

  13. Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

    2007-05-01

    Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

  14. VLBA Changes Picture of Famous Star-Forming Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-10-01

    Using the supersharp radio "vision" of the National Science Foundation's Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA), astronomers have made the most precise measurement ever of the distance to a famous star-forming region. The measurement -- to the heavily studied Orion Nebula -- changes scientists' understanding of the characteristics of the young stars in the region. Parallax Diagram Trigonometric Parallax method determines distance to star by measuring its slight shift in apparent position as seen from opposite ends of Earth's orbit. CREDIT: Bill Saxton, NRAO/AUI/NSF Star Track Apparent track of star GMR A in the Orion Nebula Cluster, showing shift caused by Earth's orbital motion and star's movement in space. CREDIT: Sandstrom et al., NRAO/AUI/NSF Click on Images for Larger Files "This measurement is four times more precise than previous distance estimates. Because our measurement reduces the distance to this region, it tells us that the stars there are less bright than thought before, and changes the estimates of their ages," said Geoff Bower, an astronomer at the University of California at Berkeley. Bower, along with Karin Sandstrom, J.E.G. Peek, Alberto Bolatto and Richard Plambeck, all of Berkeley, published their findings in the October 10 edition of the Astrophysical Journal. The scientists determined the distance to a star called GMR A, one of a cluster of stars in the Orion Nebula, by measuring the slight shift in the star's apparent position in the sky caused by the Earth's motion around the Sun. Observing the star when the Earth is on opposite sides of its annual orbit allows astronomers to measure the angle of this small shift and thus provides a direct trigonometric calculation of its distance. "By using this technique, called parallax, we get a direct measurement that does not depend on various assumptions that are required to use less-direct methods," Bower said. "Only a telescope with the remarkable ability to see fine detail that is provided by the VLBA is

  15. Regional climate change: Precipitation variability in mountainous part of Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolova Nina

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of paper is to analyze temporal and spatial changes in monthly precipitation as well as extremely dry and wet months in mountainous part of Bulgaria. Study precipitation variability in mountainous part is very important because this part is the region where the rivers take its source from. Extreme values of monthly precipitation are important information for better understanding of the whole variability and trends in precipitation time series. The mean investigated period is 1951-2005 and the reference period is so called temporary climate - 1961- 1990. Extreme dry precipitation months are defined as a month whose monthly precipitation is lower than 10% of gamma distribution in the reference period 1961-1990. Extreme wet months are determined with respect to 90% percentiles of gamma distribution (monthly precipitation is higher than 90%. The result of the research show that in mountainous part of Bulgaria during 1950s and 1960s number of extremely wet months is higher than number of dry months. Decreasing of monthly precipitation is a feature for 1980s. This dry period continues till 2004. The years 2000 makes impression as driest year in high mountains with about 7 extremely dry months. The second dry year is 1993. The negative precipitation anomaly is most clearly determined during last decade at study area. The present research points out that fluctuation of precipitation in mountainous part of Bulgaria are coinciding with regional and global climate trends.

  16. Changes in regional plasma extravasation in rats following endotoxin infusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    van Lambalgen, A.A.; van den Bos, G.C.; Thijs, L.G.

    1987-01-01

    Regional differences in plasma extravasation during endotoxin shock in rats and a possible relationship with changes in regional blood flow were studied with radioactive isotopes ( 125 I-HSA, 51Cr-labeled red blood cells, microspheres) in anesthetized rats (pentobarbital). Shock was induced by intravenous infusion of endotoxin (Eschericia coli; 10 mg X kg-1) for 60 min (starting at t = 0); at t = 120 min, the experiments were terminated. These rats (n = 8) were compared with time-matched control rats (n = 8). A third group (rats killed 7.5 min after injection of 125 I-HSA, i.e., no extravasation; n = 8) served as baseline. The amount of plasma extravasated in 2 hr of endotoxin shock was significantly increased over control values in skin (by 67%), colon (88%), skeletal muscle (105%), stomach (230%), pancreas (300%), and diaphragm (1300%). Losses of 125 I-HSA into intestinal lumen and peritoneal cavity had also increased over control values by 146 and 380%, respectively. Blood flow was compromised in most organs except heart and diaphragm. Extravasation when normalized for total plasma supply was correlated with total blood supply; the more the blood supply decreased, the higher the normalized extravasation. In the diaphragm, however, blood supply and plasma leakage increased together. Decreased blood supply and plasma extravasation may be related but they could also be simultaneously occurring independent phenomena with a common origin

  17. The electoral offer of the Bloque Nacionalista Galego (BNG at the regional level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Ares Castro-Conde

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This piece of research analyses the electoral offer of the Bloque Nacionalista Galego (BNG at the regional level since 1982. Changes in its electoral strategy are examined. Particularly, it assesses the effects of movements along both the left-right and the centre-periphery dimensions on the size of its political group as well as on its options to hold office. Light is also shed on the increasing distance between the BNG´s political preferences and the voters’ positions.

  18. Optimising Anaerobic Digestion of Manure Resources at a Regional Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kari-Anne Lyng

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available An optimisation model was developed to give decision support on methods of managing manure resources within a region to reduce greenhouse gases and at the same time obtain economic profitability for the farmer. The model was tested by performing a case study on 50 farms in one region in Norway. Based on input data on the number of cattle and pigs on each farm, and the transport distance between each farm and the nearest centralised biogas plant, the model calculates the economic profit of the farmer and the greenhouse gas emissions for three manure management alternatives: (1 no biogas production; (2 farm scale biogas production; and (3 centralised biogas production. The model could minimise the greenhouse gas emissions, maximise the profit for the farmers or a combination of the two. Results from the case study showed that both options for anaerobic digestion (farm scale and centralised biogas production are beneficial in terms of the reduction of greenhouse gases and can be profitable for the farmers. The case study has validated the functionality and usefulness of the model. Some improvements are suggested for further development and use.

  19. Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

    2017-12-01

    Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

  20. An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legeais, Jean-Francois; Ablain, Michael; Zawadzki, Lionel

    2018-01-01

    , the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed...... to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010-2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015). During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter...

  1. Does regional disadvantage affect health-related sport and physical activity level? A multi-level analysis of individual behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicker, Pamela; Downward, Paul; Lera-López, Fernando

    2017-11-01

    This study examines the role of regional government quality in health-related participation in sport and physical activity among adults (18-64 years) in 28 European countries. The importance of the analysis rests in the relative autonomy that regional and local governments have over policy decisions connected with sport and physical activity. While existing studies have focussed on economic and infrastructural investment and expenditure, this research investigates the quality of regional governments across 208 regions within 28 European countries. The individual-level data stem from the 2013 Eurobarometer 80.2 (n = 18,675) and were combined with regional-level data from Eurostat. An individual's level of participation in sport and physical activity was measured by three variables reflecting whether an individual's activity level is below, meets, or exceeds the recommendations of the World Health Organization. The results of multi-level analyses reveal that regional government quality has a significant and positive association with individual participation in sport and physical activity at a level meeting or exceeding the guidelines. The impact is much larger than that of regional gross domestic product per capita, indicating that regional disadvantage in terms of political quality is more relevant than being disadvantaged in terms of economic wealth.

  2. Changes in regional cerebral blood flow during auditory cognitive tasks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohyama, Masashi; Kitamura, Shin; Terashi, Akiro; Senda, Michio.

    1993-01-01

    In order to investigate the relation between auditory cognitive function and regional brain activation, we measured the changes in the regional cerebral blood flow (CBF) using positron emission tomography (PET) during the 'odd-ball' paradigm in ten normal healthy volunteers. The subjects underwent 3 tasks, twice for each, while the evoked potential was recorded. In these tasks, the auditory stimulus was a series of pure tones delivered every 1.5 sec binaurally at 75 dB from the earphones. Task A: the stimulus was a series of tones with 1000 Hz only, and the subject was instructed to only hear. Task B: the stimulus was a series of tones with 1000 Hz only, and the subject was instructed to push the button on detecting a tone. Task C: the stimulus was a series of pure tones delivered every 1.5 sec binaurally at 75 dB with a frequency of 1000 Hz (non-target) in 80% and 2000 Hz (target) in 20% at random, and the subject was instructed to push the button on detecting a target tone. The event related potential (P300) was observed in task C (Pz: 334.3±19.6 msec). At each task, the CBF was measured using PET with i.v. injection of 1.5 GBq of O-15 water. The changes in CBF associated with auditory cognition was evaluated by the difference between the CBF images in task C and B. Localized increase was observed in the anterior cingulate cortex (in all subjects), the bilateral associate auditory cortex, the prefrontal cortex and the parietal cortex. The latter three areas had a large individual variation in the location of foci. These results suggested the role of those cortical areas in auditory cognition. The anterior cingulate was most activated (15.0±2.24% of global CBF). This region was not activated in the condition of task B minus task A. The anterior cingulate is a part of Papez's circuit that is related to memory and other higher cortical function. These results suggested that this area may play an important role in cognition as well as in attention. (author)

  3. Assessing Changes in Precipitation and Impacts on Groundwater in Southeastern Brazil using Regional Hydroclimate Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.; Fernandes, M.; Silva, G. C., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Aquifers can be key players in regional water resources. Precipitation infiltration is the most relevant process in recharging the aquifers. In that regard, understanding precipitation changes and impacts on the hydrological cycle helps in the assessment of groundwater availability from the aquifers. Regional modeling systems can provide precipitation, near-surface air temperature, together with soil moisture at different ground levels from coupled land-surface schemes. More accurate those variables are better the evaluation of the precipitation impact on the groundwater. Downscaling of global reanalysis very often employs regional modeling systems, in order to give more detailed information for impact assessment studies at regional scales. In particular, the regional modeling system, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), might improve the accuracy of hydrometeorological variables in regions with spatial and temporal scarcity of in-situ observations. SRDAS combines assimilation of precipitation estimates from gauge-corrected satellite-based products with spectral nudging technique. The SRDAS hourly outputs provide monthly means of atmospheric and land-surface variables, including precipitation, used in the calculations of the hydrological budget terms. Results show the impact of changes in precipitation on groundwater in the aquifer located near the southeastern coastline of Brazil, through the assessment of the water-cycle terms, using a hydrological model during dry and rainy periods found in the 15-year numerical integration of SRDAS.

  4. The relative importance of impacts from climate change vs. emissions change on air pollution levels in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Hedegaard

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available So far several studies have analysed the impacts of climate change on future air pollution levels. Significant changes due to impacts of climate change have been made clear. Nevertheless, these changes are not yet included in national, regional or global air pollution reduction strategies. The changes in future air pollution levels are caused by both impacts from climate change and anthropogenic emission changes, the importance of which needs to be quantified and compared. In this study we use the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM driven by meteorological input data from the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and forced with the newly developed RCP4.5 emissions. The relative importance of the climate signal and the signal from changes in anthropogenic emissions on the future ozone, black carbon (BC, total particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 including BC, primary organic carbon (OC, mineral dust and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA and total nitrogen (including NHx + NOy has been determined. For ozone, the impacts of anthropogenic emissions dominate, though a climate penalty is found in the Arctic region and northwestern Europe, where the signal from climate change dampens the effect from the projected emission reductions of anthropogenic ozone precursors. The investigated particles are even more dominated by the impacts from emission changes. For black carbon the emission signal dominates slightly at high latitudes, with an increase up to an order of magnitude larger, close to the emission sources in temperate and subtropical areas. Including all particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 enhances the dominance from emissions change. In contrast, total nitrogen (NHx + NOy in parts of the Arctic and at low latitudes is dominated by impacts of climate change.

  5. Changes of serum prolactin level in patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Jian; Li Hairu; Chen Yaming; Tang Guihong; Xu Yalan

    2004-01-01

    To investigate the change of serum prolactin (PRL) level in patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma, serum PRL level in 79 normal person and 68 cases of patient s was measured by RIA. The result showed that serum PRL level was significantly higher in 26 patients (38.2%, 26/68) than that in the control (P 0.05) between the sex and region of lesion. The above results indicated that proportion of patient with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma was hyperprolactinaemia and the change of PRL was related to the development in oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma. (authors)

  6. Wideband noise observed at ground level in the auroral region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benson, R.F.; Desch, M.D.

    1991-01-01

    A sideband noise event was detected at ground level from the Andoya Rocket Range in Norway in January 1989. The signals were observed on four commercial communication receivers (tuned to 159, 515, 905, and 1200 kHz), an ionosonde (200-kHz to 3.5-MHz interference-free observations) and a riometer (32.5 MHz). The event, which occurred during a period of magnetic disturbance near magnetic midnight, was the only one observed during nearly 3 weeks of operations. This low frequency-of-occurrence is attributed partly to high local noise levels. The ease with which this event was identified on the ionograms produced by the local ionosonde suggests that routine ionosonde recordings should be inspected in search for such events. Such an effort would enhance existing research directed toward developing techniques for identifying quiet communication channels and help to identify the origin and frequency-of-occurrence of high-latitude wideband noise events. 20 refs

  7. Late quaternary sea level changes of Gabes coastal plain and shelf ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    site to study coastal changes at time scale, rang- ing from ... regional shoreline during MIS 5c (100 ka) and MIS .... Remote sensing drainage network anal- ... Around Gabes city, the Pleistocene deposits are ... tems are well developed and fluvial discharges are ..... relative sea-level rise: A case study from trab el makhadha.

  8. REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF LANDSCAPE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE EFFECTS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION, THE MOROCCO CASE STUDY (1981 - 2003)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The effect of changes in landscape factors on socioeconomics was analyzedlocally and regionally. The method presented here allows mapping changes in vegetation covertrends over large areas quickly and inexpensively, thus providing policy-makers with a technical

  9. Sea level change since 2005: importance of salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llovel, W.; Purkey, S.; Meyssignac, B.; Kolodziejczyk, N.; Blazquez, A.; Bamber, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of the actual global warming. Global mean sea level has been rising at a faster rate since 1993 (over the satellite altimetry era) than previous decades. This rise is expected to accelerate over the coming decades and century. At global scale, sea level rise is caused by a combination of freshwater increase from land ice melting and land water changes (mass component) and ocean warming (thermal expansion). Estimating the causes is of great interest not only to understand the past sea level changes but also to validate projections based on climate models. In this study, we investigate the global mass contribution to recent sea level changes with an alternative approach by estimating the global ocean freshening. For that purpose, we consider the unprecedented amount of salinity measurements from Argo floats for the past decade (2005-2015). We compare our results to the ocean mass inferred by GRACE data and based on a sea level budget approach. Our results bring new constrains on the global water cycle (ocean freshening) and energy budget (ocean warming) as well as on the global ocean mass directly inferred from GRACE data.

  10. Regionalization and Evaluation of Impacts of Climate Change on Mexican Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nava-Sanchez, E. H.; Murillo-Jimenez, J. M.; Godinez-Orta, L.; Morales-Perez, R. A.

    2009-04-01

    the Gulf de California, (IV) Pacific Southwest Coast, and (V) Chiapaneca Coastal Plain. On the Atlantic coast, regions are: (VI) Tamulipeca Coastal Plain, (VII) Veracruzana Volcanic Coast, (VIII) Tabasqueña Coastal Plain, (IX) Yucatan Platform, and (X) Caribean Coast. Secondly, the coastal hazards associated to a rising sea level and increasing strength of coastal processes due to climate change, were analyzed, and allowed us to determine, in order of importance, the following hazards: (a) marine flooding, by sea level rise per se and effect of storm surges; (b) beach erosion by waves, causing lose of beach width or the retreat of the whole beach system, and overwash of sand barriers; (c) fluvial flooding of coastal plains and deltaic areas; (d) salinization of estuaries and aquifers by saltwater intrusion. Finally, after overlying the characteristics of each Coastal Region and its exposition to the identified coastal hazards, we concluded that, Coastal Regions highly vulnerable to sea level rise are number V and VIII, since they show wide lowlands (up to 7 m above MSL), and have high populated areas affected by heavy rain, tropical cyclones and storm surges; regions with moderate vulnerability are number VI, IX and X, which contain lowlands (up to 7 m above MSL), populated areas, exhibit watershed with low sediment production, and are located on the tropical cyclone tracks; regions with moderately low vulnerability are number III and VII, which contain relatively narrow lowlands, important lagoon and deltaic systems, several rivers are affected by anthropogenic activities, and are moderately affected by storms and tropical cyclones; regions with low vulnerability and short coastlines exposed to sea level rise hazards are regions number I and IV, which contain narrow lagoon and deltaic systems; and finally, region II is of a very low vulnerability, with narrow and scarce areas exposed to sea level rise hazards. This project was part of a Research Program on Climate

  11. Improving Smallholder Farmer Biosecurity in the Mekong Region Through Change Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, J R; Evans-Kocinski, S; Bush, R D; Windsor, P A

    2015-10-01

    Transboundary animal diseases including foot-and-mouth disease and haemorrhagic septicaemia remain a major constraint for improving smallholder large ruminant productivity in the Mekong region, producing negative impacts on rural livelihoods and compromising efforts to reduce poverty and food insecurity. The traditional husbandry practices of smallholders largely exclude preventive health measures, increasing risks of disease transmission. Although significant efforts have been made to understand the social aspects of change development in agricultural production, attention to improving the adoption of biosecurity has been limited. This study reviews smallholder biosecurity risk factors identified in the peer-reviewed literature and from field research observations conducted in Cambodia and Laos during 2006-2013, considering these in the context of a change management perspective aimed at improving adoption of biosecurity measures. Motivation for change, resistance to change, knowledge management, cultural dimensions, systems theory and leadership are discussed. Due to geographical, physical and resource variability, the implementation of biosecurity interventions suitable for smallholders is not a 'one size fits all'. Smallholders should be educated in biosecurity principles and empowered to make personal decisions rather than adopt prescribed pre-defined interventions. Biosecurity interventions should be aligned with smallholder farmer motivations, preferably offering clear short-term risk management benefits that elicit interest from smallholders. Linking biosecurity and disease control with improved livestock productivity provides opportunities for sustainable improvements in livelihoods. Participatory research and extension that improves farmer knowledge and practices offers a pathway to elicit sustainable broad-scale social change. However, examples of successes need to be communicated both at the 'evidence-based level' to influence regional policy

  12. Changes in serum sexual hormone levels in women with infertility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Mingjiang; Zhu Benxing; Xu Yujie

    2001-01-01

    In order to understand the clinical effects of serum sexual hormone level changes on infertility, 84 women with infertility were divided into four groups. With the use of RIA, levels of FSH, LH, PRL, E 2 , t and P in serum of 84 women with infertility were measured in their follicular phase. It was showed that the serum levels of FSH, LH, PRL, E 2 , T and P in four infertility groups were all higher than the given normal standards respectively. Except E 2 (P 2 and P coincided with the percentages of the patients with the higher ratio of FSH to LH

  13. Effecting Organizational Change at the Macro Level of Professions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Robert Anthony

    Much has been written in academic and popular publications about organizational change. Topics have ranged from case studies to anecdotal stories of how leaders can change an organization. There is little written on changing the culture and vision of a profession at the macro level. This dissertation shows that one key to effecting change within a profession is to educate those at the entrant level and thereby effect change with the profession. Over time, these new entrants to the profession will rise to senior positions and be able to effect greater change through the hiring, training, and mentoring processes inherent in the professions and the organizations for which they work. One way to effect change in these entrants is through education in college and professional schools. This study is specifically focused on effecting change in the interdisciplinary field of engineering and public policy. Public policy involves countless infrastructure issues at all levels of government. Engineers are well-versed in dealing with the technical issues of infrastructure but their voice is often lacking at the policy level. Similarly, political scientists are well-versed in policy but are often lacking in a thorough understanding of the technical aspects of the policy. Through an introductory course in engineering and public policy, undergraduate students from the seemingly disparate fields of engineering and political science were placed in a common classroom and through lectures, writings, presentations, and guided discussions their attitudes on key areas were changed. Areas studied were professional interest, legitimacy, deference, the public policy process, and education outside of a specific field. Through the process of education, changes in each of these areas was possible. Further, the movement was towards making students in each discipline more open to the input, opinions, and attitudes of others, and specifically in shifting engineers toward a more positive view of

  14. Determining the Organizational Intelligence Level of Hospitals in Our Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khayat Moghadam S

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: A new and unique tool for survival of organizations among their competitors is the use of organizational intelligence; Organizational intelligence means having a comprehensive knowledge of all the environmental factors that affect on the organization. This research  is one of the few studies with the aim of determine the organizational intelligence level of hospitals and ranking of organizational intelligence components to enable administrators to provide more accurate identification of strengths and weaknesses and take more effective steps to improve service delivery. Materials and Methods: This is a descriptive-analytical and applicable study performed in the 2012 at 12 General Hospital related to Mashhad University of Medical Sciences. Data collection was performed by Albrecht organizational intelligence questionnaire. The data gathering tool was the questionnaire Albrecht Organizational Intelligence. The collected Data were analyzed using T-test and Smirnov test with SPSS-16 software. The significance level for all tests was considered 0.05. Results: All components of organizational intelligence were in the optimum status. Component of Shared fate gained the first rank and component of knowledge Deployment gained the last rank. Conclusion: Ranking of organizational intelligence components is different in hospitals of the province and the county; representing different features and conditions. Considering the importance of organizational intelligence role in the promotion of organization, hospital managers can take active steps to improve organizational intelligence based on done rankings.

  15. Assessment of 21st century change of climate drivers to hydrological change across the Appalachian Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, R.; Zegre, N.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric water supply and demand largely drives the available water in the land surface. Precipitation (P) is the main supply of water to the land surface, while water demand largely depends on energy supply. Most frameworks that analyze climate change have limit their scope to changes in P and temperature as an indicator of energy. However, atmospheric water demand is not only dependent on temperature but also on variables such as solar radiation, air humidity and wind. For this study, we use the downscaled GCM outputs of (P) and calculate atmospheric water demand by aggregating solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind as potential evapotranspiration (EP) using the Penman-Monteith equation across the Appalachian Region. We investigate absolute changes in P and EP and changes in their relation or aridity index (AI=EP/P) to spatially determine places becoming wetter or drier. Moreover, we explore how their changes are distributed throughout the year, i.e. changes in the seasonality for P and widening of the intra-annual cycle of EP. The changes in seasonality can act as a further indicator of the partition of precipitation into evaporation or land surface water. Changes of precipitation that occur during summer are likely to be partitioned towards evapotranspiration whereas changes in winter are likely to be absorbed by land surface components of storage and runoff. Furthermore, widening of the intra-annual cycle of EP means that there will be water demand for a longer part of the year (earlier in spring and later in autumn). Our results show that places with lower mean annual temperature are likely to experience larger temperature changes. Regarding the AI, the Eastern Coasts of North and South Carolina, and Georgia as well as Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky are likely to get drier. The states of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and inland North and South Carolina and Alabama are likely to become wetter, with West Virginia

  16. Improvement of global and regional mean sea level derived from satellite altimetry multi missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ablain, M.; Faugere, Y.; Larnicol, G.; Picot, N.; Cazenave, A.; Benveniste, J.

    2012-04-01

    With the satellite altimetry missions, the global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993. 'Verification' phases, during which the satellites follow each other in close succession (Topex/Poseidon--Jason-1, then Jason-1--Jason-2), help to link up these different missions by precisely determining any bias between them. Envisat, ERS-1 and ERS-2 are also used, after being adjusted on these reference missions, in order to compute Mean Sea Level at high latitudes (higher than 66°N and S), and also to improve spatial resolution by combining all these missions together. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 provide a global rate of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from + 8 mm/yr to - 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend unceratainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in the frame of the SALP project (supported by CNES) and Sea-level Climate Change Initiative project (supported by ESA), strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections

  17. Post-splenectomy β-amyloid level changes in Rabbit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji Xueli; Yu Jiwei; Ji Zhe; Zhou Zhengzhong

    2002-01-01

    Objective: To study the effect of splenectomy on serum β-amyloid (Aβ) levels in rabbit. Methods: Thirty 3yr-old rabbits underwent splenectomy and fifteen others underwent a sham-operation of laparectomy only. Serum Aβ levels were determined with RIA before and at regular intervals after operation. Results: In the splenectomy group, the Aβ levels were increased greatly after the operation and reached the peak at 5 th week. The levels then gradually declined but remained significantly higher than the pre-operative value at 6 th month. In the sham operation group, the value was no drastically changed but increased slowly (as an aging process). Conclusion: Splenectomy in rabbit would markedly increase the serum Aβ level, possibly due to a hypoimmune state impairing clearance of the substance

  18. China Dimensions Data Collection: China Administrative Regions GIS Data: 1:1M, County Level, 1990

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — China Administrative Regions GIS Data: 1:1M, County Level, 1990 consists of geographic boundary data for the administrative regions of China as of 31 December 1990....

  19. On the Perception of National Security Issues at Regional Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ponedelkov Aleksandr Vasilyevich

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article explores the issue on the perception of the concept “national security” areas, models and methods of its maintenance by the population. The author uses materials of the sociological survey conducted by the Laboratory of problems of increasing the efficiency of state and municipal management of the South-Russian Institute of Management – branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. The survey was carried out with the participation of leading experts in various aspects of national security, representing 27 Russian higher educational institutions and research centers in Moscow, Astrakhan, Barnaul, Belgorod, Dushanbe, Krasnodar, Nizhny Novgorod, Omsk, Pyatigorsk, Rostov-on-Don, Saint Petersburg, Syktyvkar, Sochi, Ufa. It is noted that as a priority political governance model that implements the basic concept of national security, respondents identified a democratic model. Most respondents believe that a unified security model in the Russian regions is ineffective, and such model should be developed taking into account the specificity of each subject. The study showed that the public’s attention to the issue of national security is not sustainable, as determined by situational factors. It is proved that the motives of anxiety formed in the Russian public mind are not sustainable, and situational. Respondents see the economic cooperation more effective incentive to maintain national interests than by force. Estimation of the population of the priority issues of security shows that most respondents appreciate the organization of work to ensure the safety and anti-terrorism security in the sphere of national relations. The findings give grounds to assert that the focus of public attention to the problem of national security does not yet occupy the leading positions. To a greater extent, respondents focused on the issues of public safety, reducing threats and risks in their daily lives

  20. Rendering Future Vegetation Change across Large Regions of the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sant'Anna Dias, Felipe; Gu, Yuting; Agarwalla, Yashika; Cheng, Yiwei; Patil, Sopan; Stieglitz, Marc; Turk, Greg

    2015-04-01

    We use two Machine Learning techniques, Decision Trees (DT) and Neural Networks (NN), to provide classified images and photorealistic renderings of future vegetation cover at three large regions in the US. The training data used to generate current vegetation cover include Landsat surface reflectance images, USGS Land Cover maps, 50 years of mean annual temperature and precipitation for the period 1950 - 2000, elevation, aspect and slope data. Present vegetation cover was generated on a 100m grid. Future vegetation cover for the period 2061- 2080 was predicted using the 1 km resolution bias corrected data from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Global Climate Model E simulation. The three test regions encompass a wide range of climatic gradients, topographic variation, and vegetation cover. The central Oregon site covers 19,182 square km and includes the Ochoco and Malheur National Forest. Vegetation cover is 50% evergreen forest and 50% shrubs and scrubland. The northwest Washington site covers 14,182 square km. Vegetation cover is 60% evergreen forest, 14% scrubs, 7% grassland, and 7% barren land. The remainder of the area includes deciduous forest, perennial snow cover, and wetlands. The third site, the Jemez mountain region of north central New Mexico, covers 5,500 square km. Vegetation cover is 47% evergreen forest, 31% shrubs, 13% grasses, and 3% deciduous forest. The remainder of the area includes developed and cultivated areas and wetlands. Using the above mentioned data sets we first trained our DT and NN models to reproduce current vegetation. The land cover classified images were compared directly to the USGS land cover data. The photorealistic generated vegetation images were compared directly to the remotely sensed surface reflectance maps. For all three sites, similarity between generated and observed vegetation cover was quite remarkable. The three trained models were then used to explore what the equilibrium vegetation would look like for

  1. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F.; Hagemann, S.; Lorenz, R.; Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2017-02-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multimodel experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of the hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America. Soil moisture trends are more important for this response than short-term soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections.

  2. Burgundy regional climate change and its potential impact on grapevines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Yiwen [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); G.C. Rieber Climate Institute at the Nansen Environment and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Castel, Thierry [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); AgroSup, Department of Agriculture and Environment, Dijon (France); Richard, Yves; Cuccia, Cedric [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); Bois, Benjamin [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); IUVV, University of Burgundy, Dijon (France)

    2012-10-15

    ARPEGE general circulation model simulations were dynamically downscaled by The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for the study of climate change and its impact on grapevine growth in Burgundy region in France by the mid twenty-first century. Two time periods were selected: 1970-1979 and 2031-2040. The WRF model driven by ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data was validated against in situ surface temperature observations. The daily maximum and minimum surface temperature (T{sub max} and T{sub min}) were simulated by the WRF model at 8 x 8 km horizontal resolution. The averaged daily T{sub max} for each month during 1970-1979 have good agreement with observations, the averaged daily T{sub min} have a warm bias about 1-2 K. The daily T{sub max} and T{sub min} for each month (domain averaged) during 2031-2040 show a general increase. The largest increment ({proportional_to}3 K) was found in summer. The smallest increments (<1 K) were found in spring and fall. The spatial distribution of temperature increment shows a strong meridional gradient, high in south in summer, reversing in winter. The resulting potential warming rate in summer is equivalent to 4.7 K/century under the IPCC A2 emission scenario. The dynamically downscaled T{sub max} and T{sub min} were used to simulate the grape (Pinot noir grape variety) flowering and veraison dates. For 2031-2040, the projected dates are 8 and 12 days earlier than those during 1970-1979, respectively. The simulated hot days increase more than 50% in the two principal grapevine regions. They show strong impact on Pinot noir development. (orig.)

  3. Investigating the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise in the Galveston Bay, Texas region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subedee, M.; Dotson, M.; Gibeaut, J. C.

    2016-02-01

    Anthropogenic effects throughout the twenty-first century, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, have contributed to global climatic and environmental changes. Sea level rise (SLR) is one of these changes which is occurring along the Texas Coast and is amplified by land subsidence. SLR along the northern Texas coast is impacting sensitive coastal environments as well as human populations, and industries and infrastructure supporting those populations. Sea level data from the NOAA gauge at Galveston Pier 21 has shown an increase of 2.08 feet in relative sea level in 100 years. Given an expected increase in the rate of sea level rise in the next decades, the purpose of this study is to provide an in-depth assessment on the effects of relative sea level rise on the habitat distribution of highly valuable coastal wetlands in the Galveston Bay region. This study also focuses on projecting the potential socioeconomic losses due to coastal flooding that is amplified by SLR in the region. In this study, three SLR scenarios are modeled: a scenario based on a linear extrapolation of satellite altimetry data (0.21 m by 2100); the IPCC's RCP8.5 mean scenario (0.74 m by 2100); and a high-end scenario (1.8 m by 2100) as proposed by Jevrejeva et al. (2014). A land subsidence rate calculated by developing a subsidence grid using GPS-measured subsidence monitoring and releveling data is added to all these scenarios. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to predict wetland conversion due to long-term SLR incorporating the processes of inundation, erosion, accretion, overwash, and saturation. Similarly, HAZUS-MH is used to evaluate the property damage to building stocks and the direct business interruption losses due to flooding caused by 100-year flood event scenario with three SLR scenarios. This coordinated research effort to assess the physical, environmental and policy impacts due to SLR is intended to enable policy-makers, managers, and the general public to

  4. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  5. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  6. PERFORMANCE AND DEVELOPMENT LEVEL - COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF DISPARITIES AMONG REGIONS OF DEVELOPMENT AND MACRO-REGIONS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA OŢIL

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The major challenge of the regional policies is to mitigate the social and economic disparities between different territories and regions. The immediate reality shows that this is a problem which is neither simple nor for short term. For Romania, which has large lags behind compared to the economically developed countries, the intense mobilization of internal and external factors of economic growth in order to reduce and eliminate disparities compared to other countries, is a definite necessity, a regularity resulting from regional and national interests in terms of its finality - the welfare of society. The economic crisis has increased regional disparities in the European Union countries, these especially affecting the countries which are less economically efficient. The present research aims at accomplishing a comparative analysis regarding disparities among regions of development and macro-regions of Romania in order to assess the performance of the productive sector, of the structural types of economies and of their level of development.

  7. THE STUDY OF CHANGES IN ARDABIL PLAIN GROUNDWATER LEVEL USING GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javad Zare Aghbolagh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Uncontrolled exploitation of groundwater in many parts of the world has led to a sharp drop in groundwater levels. In this study, changes in Ardabil plain groundwater level were studied using geographic information system (GIS. For this purpose, the interpolation table method was used, the intrinsic data as table data of piezo metric wells was used. In order to implement the model, the Majol Geoestatical in geographic information system software was used. The data entered as regions into the geographic information system, and then done for the entire zoning area, due to zoning 8 models, the IDW, GPI, RBF, LPI, KO, KS, KU and EBK in geostatical extension were evaluated. The ordinary kriging method (KO with the lowest RMSE, was determined as the most accurate one, and finally, as the ultimate method for zoning and map providing for the changes in groundwater levels drop of the region. The results of classification showed that the biggest drop of about 40 meters was in the areas close to the southeastern parts of the study region and in other areas, little changes were observed, this rate of the change and decline in some parts of the desert like southern regions is very tangible and specified.

  8. Uncovering China’s transport CO2 emission patterns at the regional level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Bin; Geng, Yong; Franke, Bernd; Hao, Han; Liu, Yaxuan; Chiu, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    With China’s rapid economic development, its transport sector has experienced a dramatic growth, leading to a large amount of related CO 2 emission. This paper aims to uncover China’s transport CO 2 emission patterns at the regional and provincial level. We first present the CO 2 emission features from transport sector in 30 Chinese provinces, including per capita emissions, emission intensities, and historical evolution of annual CO 2 emission. We then quantify the related driving forces by adopting both period-wise and time-series LMDI analysis. Results indicate that significant regional CO 2 emission disparities exist in China’s transport sector. The eastern region had higher total CO 2 emissions and per capita CO 2 emissions, but lower CO 2 emission intensities in its transport sector. The western region had higher CO 2 emission intensities and experienced a rapid CO 2 emission increase. The CO 2 emission increments in the eastern provinces were mainly contributed by both economic activity effect and population effect, while energy intensity partially offset the emission growth and energy structure had a marginal effect. However, in the central and western provinces, both economic activity effect and energy intensity effect induced the CO 2 emission increases, while the effects from population and energy structure change were limited. - Highlights: • The CO 2 emission features from transport sector in 30 Chinese provinces were presented. • The driving forces of CO 2 emissions from transport sector were quantified. • Regional disparities on China’s transport sector CO 2 emission exist. • Region-specific mitigation policies on transport sector CO 2 emission are needed

  9. Functional integration changes in regional brain glucose metabolism from childhood to adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotta, Nicola; Archambaud, Frédérique; Goldman, Serge; Baete, Kristof; Van Laere, Koen; Wens, Vincent; Van Bogaert, Patrick; Chiron, Catherine; De Tiège, Xavier

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the age-related changes in resting-state neurometabolic connectivity from childhood to adulthood (6-50 years old). Fifty-four healthy adult subjects and twenty-three pseudo-healthy children underwent [(18) F]-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography at rest. Using statistical parametric mapping (SPM8), age and age squared were first used as covariate of interest to identify linear and non-linear age effects on the regional distribution of glucose metabolism throughout the brain. Then, by selecting voxels of interest (VOI) within the regions showing significant age-related metabolic changes, a psychophysiological interaction (PPI) analysis was used to search for age-induced changes in the contribution of VOIs to the metabolic activity in other brain areas. Significant linear or non-linear age-related changes in regional glucose metabolism were found in prefrontal cortices (DMPFC/ACC), cerebellar lobules, and thalamo-hippocampal areas bilaterally. Decreases were found in the contribution of thalamic, hippocampal, and cerebellar regions to DMPFC/ACC metabolic activity as well as in the contribution of hippocampi to preSMA and right IFG metabolic activities. Increases were found in the contribution of the right hippocampus to insular cortex and of the cerebellar lobule IX to superior parietal cortex metabolic activities. This study evidences significant linear or non-linear age-related changes in regional glucose metabolism of mesial prefrontal, thalamic, mesiotemporal, and cerebellar areas, associated with significant modifications in neurometabolic connectivity involving fronto-thalamic, fronto-hippocampal, and fronto-cerebellar networks. These changes in functional brain integration likely represent a metabolic correlate of age-dependent effects on sensory, motor, and high-level cognitive functional networks. Hum Brain Mapp 37:3017-3030, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Phosalone-Induced Changes in Regional Cholinesterase Activities ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... in Regional Cholinesterase Activities in Rat Brain during Behavioral Tolerance. ... lead to the gradual disappearance of the initial signs of toxicity over time, termed ... regions, striatum recorded a greater decrease in cholinesterase activity.

  11. Monitoring Vertical Crustal Deformation and Gravity Variations during Water Level Changes at the Three Gorges Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Wei

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring vertical crustal deformation and gravity changes during water level changes at the Three Gorges reservoir is important for the safe operation of the Three Gorges Dam and for the monitoring and prevention of a regional geological disaster. In this study, we determined vertical crustal deformation and gravity changes during water level variations of the Three Gorges reservoir from direct calculations and actual measurements and a comprehensive solution. We used water areas extracted image data from the ZY-3 satellite and water level data to calculate gravity changes and vertical crustal deformation caused by every 5 m change in the water level due to storage and drainage of the Three Gorges reservoir from 145 m to 175 m. The vertical crustal deformation was up to 30 mm. The location of gravity change above 20 μ Gal(1 Gal=10-2 m/s2 was less than 2 km from the centerline of the Yangtze River. The CORS ES13 in Badong, near the reservoir, measured the vertical crustal deformation during water level changes. Because of the small number of CORS and gravity stations in the Three Gorges reservoir area, monitoring deformation and gravity related to changes in the Three Gorges reservoir water level cannot be closely followed. Using 26 CORS and some of the gravity stations in the Three Gorges area and based on loading deformation and the spherical harmonic analysis method, an integrated solution of vertical deformation and gravity variations during water level changes of the reservoir was determined, which is consistent with the actual CORS monitoring results. By comparison, we found that an integrated solution based on a CORS network can effectively enhance the capability of monitoring vertical crustal deformation and gravity changes during water level variations of the reservoir.

  12. Metabolic Changes and Serum Ghrelin Level in Patients with Psoriasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haydar Ucak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Serum ghrelin levels may be related to metabolic and clinical changes in patients with psoriasis. Objective. This study was performed to determine the possible effects of serum ghrelin in patients with psoriasis. Methods. The study population consisted of 25 patients with plaque psoriasis. The patients were questioned with regard to age, gender, age of onset, duration of disease, height, weight, and body mass index (BMI. In addition, fasting blood sugar, triglyceride, cholesterol levels, insulin, and ghrelin levels were measured. Results. The mean serum ghrelin level was 45.41 ± 22.41 in the psoriasis group and 29.92 ± 14.65 in the healthy control group. Serum ghrelin level was significantly higher in the psoriasis group compared with the controls (P=0.01. The mean ghrelin level in patients with a lower PASI score was significantly higher than in those with a higher PASI score (P=0.02. Conclusion. The present study was performed to determine the effects of ghrelin in psoriasis patients. We found a negative correlation between severity of psoriasis and ghrelin level. Larger and especially experimental studies focusing on correlation of immune system-ghrelin levels and severity of psoriasis may be valuable to clarify the etiopathogenesis of the disease.

  13. New Insights on US Aggregate and State Level Trade with the China Region%New Insights on US Aggregate and State Level Trade with the China Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Catherine Y. Co

    2011-01-01

    Aggregate trade data with breakdown into related and non-related party components show that US multinational enterprises use different trading strategies in the China region relative to other countries. US trade with the China region in 2002-007 is characterized by arm 's- length transactions. State-level trade data show great variability in state engagement with the region through trade: exports to the region range from 1 to 28 percent of state exports. In addition, compared to exports to other countries, exports to the region are highly concentrated. At the extreme, for some states, 96-98 percent of exports to the region are computer and electronic products. Finally, gravity regressions show that state exports to Hong Kong are posflively associated with the relative size of the ltong Kong-born population in the states. There is no evidence that stricter labor regimes lead to lower state exports.

  14. Guiding Users to Sea Level Change Data Through Content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, N.; Abercrombie, S. P.; Boening, C.; Brennan, H. P.; Gill, K. M.; Greguska, F. R., III; Huang, T.; Jackson, R.; Larour, E. Y.; Shaftel, H.; Tenenbaum, L. F.; Zlotnicki, V.; Boeck, A.; Moore, B.; Moore, J.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (https://sealevel.nasa.gov) is an immersive and innovative web portal for sea level change research that addresses the needs of diverse audiences, from scientists across disparate disciplines to the general public to policy makers and businesses. Since sea level change research involves vast amounts of data from multiple fields, it becomes increasingly important to come up with novel and effective ways to guide users to the data they need. News articles published on the portal contains links to relevant data. The Missions section highlights missions and projects as well as provide a logical grouping of the data. Tools available on the portal, such as the Data Analysis Tool, a data visualization and high-performance environment for sea level analysis, and the Virtual Earth System Laboratory, a 3D simulation application, describes and links to the source data. With over 30K Facebook followers and over 23K Twitter follower, the portal outreach team also leverages social media to guide users to relevant data. This presentation focuses on how the portal uses news articles, mission and project pages, tools, and social media to connect users to the data.

  15. Growth-based Theories for Declining Regions? A Note on Conceptualisations of Demographic Change for Regional Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anke Matuschewski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to critically assess the economic growth paradigm, which typically underlies most approaches to regional policymaking for demographic change. While population losses, ageing and outmigration – i.e. phenomena that are addressed as demographic change – have become a matter of urgency for many European regions, most regional economic development theories remain silent about the population decline affecting the economic growth and development prospects of regions. Consequently, regional policies usually rely on the concept of economic growth, yet neglect the complexity and importance of demographic change and how it relates to the economic sphere. Due to this lack in nuance, we argue that regional policymaking fails to design adequate policy support for regions facing persistent demographic change and economic stagnation or decline as a result. Based on these observations, the paper examines a selection of regional economic development theories in search for alternative concepts of growth and development in the context of demographic change. To this aim, globalisation peripheries are introduced as a fruitful conceptual point of reference and, in combination with endogenous regional development theories, discussed as an alternative approach for regional policymaking.

  16. The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel

    2014-01-01

    We study the impact of regional and sectoral productivity changes on the U.S. economy. To that end, we consider an environment that captures the effects of interregional and intersectoral trade in propagating disaggregated productivity changes at the level of a sector in a given U.S. state to the rest of the economy. The quantitative model we develop features pairwise interregional trade across all 50 U.S. states, 26 traded and non-traded industries, labor as a mobile factor, and structures a...

  17. An assessment of ground-level ozone concentrations in the Athabasca oil sands region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    Syncrude and Suncor have plans to develop new oil sands leases and to increase crude oil and bitumen recovery in the Athabasca oil sands region. A first air quality assessment was prepared as part of the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board application, in order to evaluate the emissions and potential impacts associated with the development. The Pembina Institute raised several issues with respect to potential future changes in ambient ozone levels as a result of the Aurora Mine operations. In response to these concerns, another more rigorous assessment was conducted to predict future ground-level ozone concentrations in the Fort McMurray area. This report includes: (1) ambient air quality guidelines for ozone, (2) emissions inventory for dispersion modelling, (3) dispersion modelling methodology, and (4) predicted ambient ozone concentrations. Ground level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations result from anthropogenically produced ozone, and from naturally occurring ozone. Ozone is not directly emitted to the atmosphere from industrial sources, but is formed as a result of chemical reactions between NO x and VOCs, which are emitted from industrial sources within the Athabasca oil sands region. NO x and VOC emissions associated with the Aurora Mine operation are predicted to increase hourly average ozone concentrations in the Fort McMurray area by only 0.001 ppm. 17 refs., 18 tabs., 5 figs

  18. Interpretation of changes in water level accompanying fault creep and implications for earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesson, R.L.

    1981-01-01

    Quantitative calculations for the effect of a fault creep event on observations of changes in water level in wells provide an approach to the tectonic interpretation of these phenomena. For the pore pressure field associated with an idealized creep event having an exponential displacement versus time curve, an analytic expression has been obtained in terms of exponential-integral functions. The pore pressure versus time curves for observation points near the fault are pulselike; a sharp pressure increase (or decrease, depending on the direction of propagation) is followed by more gradual decay to the normal level after the creep event. The time function of the water level change may be obtained by applying the filter - derived by A.G.Johnson and others to determine the influence of atmospheric pressure on water level - to the analytic pore pressure versus time curves. The resulting water level curves show a fairly rapid increase (or decrease) and then a very gradual return to normal. The results of this analytic model do not reproduce the steplike changes in water level observed by Johnson and others. If the procedure used to obtain the water level from the pore pressure is correct, these results suggest that steplike changes in water level are not produced by smoothly propagating creep events but by creep events that propagate discontinuously, by changes in the bulk properties of the region around the well, or by some other mechanism.-Author

  19. Sea level changes along the Indian coast: Observations and projections

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Kumar, K.R.; Fernandes, S.E.; Michael, G.S.; Patwardhan, S.K.

    : CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA CURRE NT SCIENCE, VOL. 90, NO. 3, 10 FEBRUARY 2006 *For correspondence. (e - mail: unni@darya.nio.org ) Sea level changes along the Indian coast: Observ a tions and projections A. S. Unnikrishnan 1, *, K. Rupa Kumar... with the occu r rence of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and associated storm surges in a future climate scenario. Projections for the future are needed for decision making by planners and policy makers. Future pr o jecti ons are made for different...

  20. Updating the results of glacier contribution to the sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Abdalati, Waleed Dr. (Technical Monitor)

    2005-01-01

    I have completed an update of global glacier volume change. All data of glacier annual mass balances, surface area over the period 1945/46 till 2004, outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets were included in this update. As the result global glacier volume change have been calculated, also in terms of glacier contribution to sea level change. These results were sent to Working Group 1 and 2 of IPCC-4 as the basis for modeling of sea level towards the end of 2100. In this study I have concentrated on studying glacier systems of different scales, from primary (e.g. Devon ice cap) to regional (e.g. Canadian Arctic), continental scale (e,g., entire Arctic), and global (e.g., change in glacier volume and contribution to sea level rise).

  1. Detection of Changes in Ground-Level Ozone Concentrations via Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuehua Wu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Ground-level ozone concentration is a key indicator of air quality. Theremay exist sudden changes in ozone concentration data over a long time horizon, which may be caused by the implementation of government regulations and policies, such as establishing exhaust emission limits for on-road vehicles. To monitor and assess the efficacy of these policies, we propose a methodology for detecting changes in ground-level ozone concentrations, which consists of three major steps: data transformation, simultaneous autoregressive modelling and change-point detection on the estimated entropy. To show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, the methodology is applied to detect changes in ground-level ozone concentration data collected in the Toronto region of Canada between June and September for the years from 1988 to 2009. The proposed methodology is also applicable to other climate data.

  2. The EU and Climate Change Policy: Law, Politics and Prominence at Different Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chad David Damro

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The European Union (EU is a prominent player in the politics of climate change, operating as an authoritative regional actor that influences policy-making at the national and international levels. The EU’s climate change policies are thus subjected to multiple pressures that arise from the domestic politics of its twenty-seven individual member states and the international politics of non-EU states with which it negotiates. Facing these multiple pressures, how and why could such a non-traditional actor develop into a prominent player at different levels of climate change policy-making? This article argues that the EU’s rise to prominence can be understood by tracking a number of historical-legal institutional developments at the domestic and international levels. The article also provides a preliminary investigation of the EU emissions trading scheme, a new institutional mechanism that illustrates the policy pressures arising from different levels.

  3. Changes in Holocene relative sea-level and coastal morphology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Sander, Lasse; Clemmensen, Lars B

    2015-01-01

    Changes in relative sea-level (RSL) during the Holocene are reconstructed based on ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data collected across a raised beach ridge system on the island of Samsø, Denmark. The internal architecture of the beach ridge and swale deposits is divided into characteristic radar...... ridge progradation through time. The vertical levels of identified downlap points are combined with an age model based on optically stimulated luminescence-dated samples to reconstruct RSL for the past c. 5000 years. Overall, the reconstruction shows that the period between c. 4800 and 3800 yr BP...

  4. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  5. Monitoring ground elevation changes in the Larderello geothermal region, Tuscan, Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dini, I.; Rosi, A.; Rossi, A.

    1990-01-01

    In 1921-1923 a precise levelling network, with more than 200 km of lines, was set up and measured in the Tuscan geothermal region comprising the Larderello area. In 1985-1986 this topographic network was rearranged and levelling measurements were repeated. Negative elevation changes reaching a maximum of about 170 cm were observed across the areas of maximum fluid withdrawal and maximum fluid pressure decline. Levelling measurements carried out in 1989 show that elevation changes are no longer evident in the central Larderello area, but subsidence of less than 3 cm can still be observed in some nearby areas exploited recently. The measured subsidence values cannot be ascribed solely to the compaction of reservoir rocks, as this would entail a pressure decline down to about 10 km depth. In this paper since this figure seems excessive the authors hypothesize that compaction of the cover terrains is also involved

  6. Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostberg, Sebastian; Schewe, Jacob; Childers, Katelin; Frieler, Katja

    2018-05-01

    An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the policy discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models often use global mean temperature change (ΔGMT) as a sole measure of climate change and, therefore, need to describe impacts as a function of ΔGMT. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with ΔGMT. It is less clear to what extent more complex biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ΔGMT, even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ΔGMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast estimation of crop yield changes for emissions scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ΔGMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we find that the variability in crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model, geographical patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations.

  7. Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fridolin Simon. Brand

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global change. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis to develop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to context scenarios developed at the global and Swiss levels via an external consistency analysis. This method allows the coupling of both the scenario building process and the scenarios as such. We used a functional-dynamic approach to theory-practice cooperation, i.e., the involvement of key stakeholders from, for example, tourism, forestry, and administration, differed in type and intensity during the steps of the research process. In our study, we experienced strong problem awareness among the stakeholders concerning the impacts of global change and local challenges. The guiding research question was commonly defined and problem ownership was more or less balanced. We arrived at six multiscale scenarios that open up future trajectories for the Visp region, and present generic strategies to cope with global and local challenges. The results show that local identity, spatial planning, community budget, and demographic development are important steering elements in the region's future development. We suggest that method-guided transdisciplinary processes result in a richer picture and a more systemic understanding, which enable a discussion of critical and surprising issues.

  8. Population dynamics, delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong, Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo, S.; Brondizio, E.; Renaud, F.G.; Hetrick, S.; Nicholls, R.; Matthews, Z.; Tessler, Z; Tejedor, A; Sebesvari, Z; Foufoula-Georgiou, E; da Costa, S; Dearing, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient pol...

  9. THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARGIN LEVELS ON FUTURES OPTIONS PRICE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yanling GU; Juan LI

    2006-01-01

    The paper studies the effects of changing margin levels on the price of futures options and how to organize a market maker's position. Black model (1976) becomes a special case of this paper.The paper prices futures options by duplicating them and adopting the theory of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs for short). Furthermore, the price of a futures option is the unique solution to a nonlinear BSDE.

  10. Effects of different types of anaesthesia (regional vs general) on serum NO and TNF-α levels in surgical patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Hong

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To study the effect of anesthesia on changes of serum NO and TNF-α levels in surgical patients. Methods: Serum NO (with biochemical method) and TNF-α (with RIA) levels were determined for 3 times in 31 patients operated under regional anesthesia and 31 patients operated under general anesthesia (both for benign gastric ulcer). The levels were measured before induction of anesthesia, at the beginning of operation, and 1 hr later. Results: In patients under regional anesthesia, both the NO and TNF-α levels increased significantly at the beginning of operation and, 1 hr later, though dropped, remained significantly higher than the levels before induction (P<0.05). NO significant changes of the levels were observed in patients under general anesthesia throughout the operation, and the levels were, as a whole, significantly lower than the levels under regional anesthesia (P<0.05). Conclusion: General anesthesia (combined intravenous and inhalation) could abolish the increase of serum NO and TNF-α levels duning operation. (authors)

  11. Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

    2015-05-01

    The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Regional contributions of ocean iron fertilization to atmospheric CO2 changes during the last glacial termination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opazo, N. E.; Lambert, F.

    2017-12-01

    Mineral dust aerosols affect climate directly by changing the radiative balance of the Earth, and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and by affecting biogeochemical cycles. The impact on marine biogeochemical cycles is primarily through the supply of micronutrients such as iron to nutrient-limited regions of the oceans. Iron fertilization of High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) regions of the oceans is thought to have significantly affected the carbon cycle on glacial-interglacial scales and contributed about one fourth of the 80-100 ppm lowering of glacial atmospheric CO2 concentrations.In this study, we quantify the effect of global dust fluxes on atmospheric CO2 using the cGENIE model, an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity with emphasis on the carbon cycle. Global Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) dust flux fields were obtained from both dust model simulations and reconstructions based on observational data. The analysis was performed in two stages. In the first instance, we produced 8 global intermediate dust flux fields between Holocene and LGM and simulated the atmospheric CO2 drawdown due to these 10 dust levels. In the second stage, we only changed dust flux levels in specific HNLC regions to isolate the effect of these ocean basins. We thus quantify the contribution of the South Atlantic, the South Pacific, the North Pacific, and the Central Pacific HNLC regions to the total atmospheric CO2 difference due to iron fertilization of the Earth's oceans.

  13. Collaborative Research: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2017-12-28

    This project developed and applied a regional Arctic System model for enhanced decadal predictions. It built on successful research by four of the current PIs with support from the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program, which has resulted in the development of a fully coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) consisting of atmosphere, land-hydrology, ocean and sea ice components. An expanded RACM, a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has been set up to include ice sheets, ice caps, mountain glaciers, and dynamic vegetation to allow investigation of coupled physical processes responsible for decadal-scale climate change and variability in the Arctic. RASM can have high spatial resolution (~4-20 times higher than currently practical in global models) to advance modeling of critical processes and determine the need for their explicit representation in Global Earth System Models (GESMs). The pan-Arctic region is a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification. However, a system-level understanding of critical arctic processes and feedbacks needs further development. Rapid climate change has occurred in a number of Arctic System components during the past few decades, including retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet, acceleration and thinning of outlet glaciers, reduced snow cover, thawing permafrost, and shifts in vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation and heat budget, ecosystems, native communities, natural resource exploration, and commercial transportation. The overarching goal of the RASM project has been to advance understanding of past and present states of arctic climate and to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. To do this the project has focused on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The three foci of this research are: - Changes

  14. Modeling the Impacts of Changes in Freight Demand, Infrastructure Improvements and Policy Measures on a Metropolitan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    In this research, a policy framework was developed and used as a tool to determine the impacts of change in truck traffic on a regional level as a result of policy change. To achieve the objective, three demand models were used in the framework which...

  15. Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; van Werkhoven, B.J.C.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

    2014-01-01

    As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect

  16. Ex vivo changes in blood glucose levels seldom change blood glucose control algorithm recommendations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groene, L.; Harmsen, R. E.; Binnekade, J. M.; Spronk, P. E.; Schultz, M. J.

    2010-01-01

    Background. Hyperglycemia and glycemic variabilities are associated with adverse outcomes in critically ill patients. Blood glucose control with insulin mandates an adequate and precise assessment of blood glucose levels. Blood glucose levels, however, can change ex vivo after sampling. The aim of

  17. Effect of climatic change on surface environments in the typical region of Horqin Sandy Land

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The town of Agura,a typical region in Horqin Sandy Land,was selected as the study area in this paper.Using 12 remote sensing images and climatic data from the past 20 years,the effects of climate change on surface environments were analyzed.The impact indices of climatic factors,along with their corresponding ranks,were used to characterize the responses of different types of surface environments to climate change.Results show that in the past 20 years,the surface environments of the study area have been deteriorating.Furthermore,there is a positive relationship between the changes in surface environments and those in climatic factors.Various climatic factors influence surface environments in different ways and at different levels.The most sensitive factor is relative humidity,followed by precipitation and evaporation.Overall,moisture is the key factor that affects the changes in surface environments of arid and semi-arid areas.

  18. Late regional density changes of the lung after radiotherapy for breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vagane, Randi; Danielsen, Turi; Fossa, Sophie Dorothea; Lokkevik, Erik; Olsen, Dag Rune

    2009-01-01

    Background and purpose: To investigate density changes in lung tissue, 3-4 years after postoperative adjuvant radiotherapy for breast cancer, based on dose dependence and regional differences. Material and methods: Sixty-one breast cancer patients, who had received computed tomography (CT) based postoperative radiotherapy, were included. CT scans were performed 35-51 months after start of radiotherapy. Dose information and CT scans from before and after radiotherapy were geometrically aligned in order to analyse changes in air-filled fraction (derived from CT density) as a function of dose for different regions of the lung. Results: Dose-dependent reduction of the air-filled fraction was shown to vary between the different regions of the lung. For lung tissue receiving about 50 Gy, the largest reduction in air-filled fraction was found in the cranial part of the lung. An increased air-filled fraction was observed for lung tissue irradiated to doses below 20 Gy, indicating compensatory response. Conclusions: The treatment-induced change in whole-lung density is a weighted response, involving the different regions, the irradiated volumes, and dose levels to these volumes. Simplistic models may therefore not be appropriate for describing the whole-lung dose-volume-response relationship following inhomogeneous irradiation

  19. Decadal trends in deep ocean salinity and regional effects on steric sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purkey, S. G.; Llovel, W.

    2017-12-01

    We present deep (below 2000 m) and abyssal (below 4000 m) global ocean salinity trends from the 1990s through the 2010s and assess the role of deep salinity in local and global sea level budgets. Deep salinity trends are assessed using all deep basins with available full-depth, high-quality hydrographic section data that have been occupied two or more times since the 1980s through either the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Hydrographic Program or the Global Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP). All salinity data is calibrated to standard seawater and any intercruise offsets applied. While the global mean deep halosteric contribution to sea level rise is close to zero (-0.017 +/- 0.023 mm/yr below 4000 m), there is a large regional variability with the southern deep basins becoming fresher and northern deep basins becoming more saline. This meridional gradient in the deep salinity trend reflects different mechanisms driving the deep salinity variability. The deep Southern Ocean is freshening owing to a recent increased flux of freshwater to the deep ocean. Outside of the Southern Ocean, the deep salinity and temperature changes are tied to isopycnal heave associated with a falling of deep isopycnals in recent decades. Therefore, regions of the ocean with a deep salinity minimum are experiencing both a halosteric contraction with a thermosteric expansion. While the thermosteric expansion is larger in most cases, in some regions the halosteric compensates for as much as 50% of the deep thermal expansion, making a significant contribution to local sea level rise budgets.

  20. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  1. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Paprocki

    Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

  2. TASKS OF INNOVATION PROCESSES PROGRAM-TARGET MANAGEMENT AT REGIONAL LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail Shchepakin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the regional system of innovation management, discussed the existing problems of program-oriented management of innovative processes at the regional level, as well as possible solutions to improve the efficiency of the regional innovation system.

  3. Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonéri Le Cozannet

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and its impacts, such as submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization and wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual to multi-decadal sea level projections can be used within coastal climate services (CCS. To this end, we review the current state-of-the art of coastal climate services in the US, Australia and France, and identify lessons learned. More broadly, we also review current barriers in the development of CCS, and identify research and development efforts for overcoming barriers and facilitating their continued growth. The latter includes: (1 research in the field of sea level, coastal and adaptation science and (2 cross-cutting research in the area of user interactions, decision making, propagation of uncertainties and overall service architecture design. We suggest that standard approaches are required to translate relative sea level information into the forms required to inform the wide range of relevant decisions across coastal management, including coastal adaptation.

  4. Collagen mRNA levels changes during colorectal cancer carcinogenesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovbjerg, Hanne; Anthonsen, Dorit; Lothe, Inger M B

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Invasive growth of epithelial cancers is a complex multi-step process which involves dissolution of the basement membrane. Type IV collagen is a major component in most basement membranes. Type VII collagen is related to anchoring fibrils and is found primarily in the basement membrane...... zone of stratified epithelia. Immunohistochemical studies have previously reported changes in steady-state levels of different alpha(IV) chains in several epithelial cancer types. In the present study we aimed to quantitatively determine the mRNA levels of type IV collagen (alpha1/alpha 4/alpha 6......) and type VII collagen (alpha1) during colorectal cancer carcinogenesis. METHODS: Using quantitative RT-PCR, we have determined the mRNA levels for alpha1(IV), alpha 4(IV), alpha 6(IV), and alpha1(VII) in colorectal cancer tissue (n = 33), adenomas (n = 29) and in normal tissue from the same individuals...

  5. Song competition affects monoamine levels in sensory and motor forebrain regions of male Lincoln's sparrows (Melospiza lincolnii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kendra B Sewall

    Full Text Available Male animals often change their behavior in response to the level of competition for mates. Male Lincoln's sparrows (Melospiza lincolnii modulate their competitive singing over the period of a week as a function of the level of challenge associated with competitors' songs. Differences in song challenge and associated shifts in competitive state should be accompanied by neural changes, potentially in regions that regulate perception and song production. The monoamines mediate neural plasticity in response to environmental cues to achieve shifts in behavioral state. Therefore, using high pressure liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection, we compared levels of monoamines and their metabolites from male Lincoln's sparrows exposed to songs categorized as more or less challenging. We compared levels of norepinephrine and its principal metabolite in two perceptual regions of the auditory telencephalon, the caudomedial nidopallium and the caudomedial mesopallium (CMM, because this chemical is implicated in modulating auditory sensitivity to song. We also measured the levels of dopamine and its principal metabolite in two song control nuclei, area X and the robust nucleus of the arcopallium (RA, because dopamine is implicated in regulating song output. We measured the levels of serotonin and its principal metabolite in all four brain regions because this monoamine is implicated in perception and behavioral output and is found throughout the avian forebrain. After controlling for recent singing, we found that males exposed to more challenging song had higher levels of norepinephrine metabolite in the CMM and lower levels of serotonin in the RA. Collectively, these findings are consistent with norepinephrine in perceptual brain regions and serotonin in song control regions contributing to neuroplasticity that underlies socially-induced changes in behavioral state.

  6. Economic and social analyses at a regional level in the light of competitiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Maria Gogâltan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In most economic studies, competitiveness is considered a key issue of the political success failure. A major element which contributes to regional inequalities is the level of competitiveness. This element has been the subject of numerous studies over the past years, even though more attention was given to the national level and less to the regional one. Moreover, the purpose of these regional analyses is the correlation of territorial objectives and problems with possible sources of financing, seeing to ensure optimal combinations between regional demand and supply, the optimal distribution of the income and of the results obtained, regional competitiveness, the location of clusters, etc.

  7. The effect of the pathway to a two degrees warmer world on the regional temperature change of Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathrine Fox Maule

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate if the pathway to reach a 2 degree warmer world influences the regional climate in Europe at the time of 2 degrees of global warming above the pre-industrial level. We have investigated this using climate change data from ensembles of both Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models. We compare the change of regional temperature in Europe to the global temperature change for different emission scenarios, following the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, to see if the pathway has any influence. We find that there is a small but significant difference in the regional temperature change, but the effect is small compared to internal variability on the timescales involved in reaching +2 degrees for the investigated emission scenarios. From an adaptation point of view, reaching +2 degrees as slowly as possible will obviously allow for a longer time period to implement adaptation measures to mitigate the effect of climate change.

  8. The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate- and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

  9. Investigation of natural radioactivity level of the waters in the tibet autonomous region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Tianhua; Li Yankun; Yao Ke; Pan Chengchang

    1995-01-01

    The investigation results of natural radioactivity level in river, lake, spring, well and tap water in the Tibet Autonomous Region is reported. There were totally 46 samples collected from 53 measuring points. The results show that the radioactivity level of water bodies of the Tibet Autonomous region was within normal natural background

  10. Investigation of natural radioactivity level of the waters in Guangxi Zhuangzu Autonomous Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Mingshen; Ming Chuanbao; Dai Guozhi; Liang Runping; Chen Xiuyu; Yang Gang; Jin Mei

    1993-01-01

    This paper reports the investigation results of natural radioactivity level in river, lake reservoir, spring, well and tap water in Guangxi Zhuangzu Autonomous Region. There were totally 194 samples collected from 143 measuring points. The results show that the radioactivity level of varied water bodies of the region was within normal natural background

  11. Investigation of natural radioactivity level of the waters in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jing Yupei; Wang Li; Tian Yi; Ai Xianyuan; Liang Ningbu

    1995-01-01

    This paper reports the investigation results of natural radioactivity level in river, lake, reservoir, spring, well and tap water in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. There were totally 117 samples collected from 84 measuring points. The results show that the radioactivity level of varied water bodies of the region was within normal natural background

  12. Global change and biogeochemical cycles: The south Asia region

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mitra, A.P.; DileepKumar, M.; Kumar, K.R.; Abrol, Y.P.; Kalra, N.; Velayutham, M.; Naqvi, S.W.A.

    stream_size 33 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Global-Region_Linkage_Earth_Syst_2002_75.pdf.txt stream_source_info Global-Region_Linkage_Earth_Syst_2002_75.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text...

  13. Changes in serum leptin level in patients with diabetic retinopathy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Jing; Cao Huiling

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To explore the regulation of changes in serum leptin level in patients with diabetic retinopathy. Methods: The 120 participating subjects were of four groups: healthy controls, diabetic patients without retinopathy, patients with NPDR and patients with PDR, each group consisted of 18 males and 12 females with comparable BMI. The levels of serum leptin, IVC, insulin and blood glucose of these patients were measured and the correlation between serum leptin level and other parameters was analysed. Results: The level of serum leptin in controls, diabetic patients without retinopathy, patients with NPDR and patients with PDR were 6.91 ± 1.87 μg/L, 7,83 ±2.11 μg/L, 9.56 ± 2.43 μg/L and 11.69 ± 2.57 μg/L respectively. The patients with PDR had higher serum leptin levels than patients with NPDR (t=2.15, p < 0.05), diabetic patients without retinopathy (t = 2.71, p < 0.01), and controls (t = 3.50, p < 0.001), the patients with NPDR had higher serum leptin levels than diabetic patients without retinopathy (t = 2.23, p < 0.05) and controls (t = 2.75, p < 0.01), while the difference in serum leptin was not significant between diabetic patients without retinopathy and controls. The serum level was positively correlated to BMI (r = 0.22, p < 0.05) and FINS (r = 0.28, p < 0.01). Conclusion: Serum leptin level is elevated in patients with diabetic retinopathy and is positively correlated to the severity of the disease

  14. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Martha Marie; Orth, René; Cheruy, Frederique; Hagemann, Stefan; Lorenz, Ruth; van den Hurk, Bart; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

    2017-04-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multi-model experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate physical processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America and between 42%-52% in Amazonia, Northern Australia and Southern Africa. Soil moisture trends (multi-decadal soil moisture variability) are more important for this response than short-term (e.g. seasonal, interannual) soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections. Vogel, M.M. et al.,2017. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted.

  15. Regional Climate Modelling of the Western Iberian Low-Level Wind Jet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Semedo, Álvaro

    2016-04-01

    The Iberian coastal low-level jet (CLLJ) is one the less studied boundary layer wind jet features in the Eastern Boundary Currents Systems (EBCS). These regions are amongst the most productive ocean ecosystems, where the atmosphere-land-ocean feedbacks, which include marine boundary layer clouds, coastal jets, upwelling and inland soil temperature and moisture, play an important role in defining the regional climate along the sub-tropical mid-latitude western coastal areas. Recently, the present climate western Iberian CLLJ properties were extensively described using a high resolution regional climate hindcast simulation. A summer maximum frequency of occurrence above 30% was found, with mean maximum wind speeds around 15 ms-1, between 300 and 400m heights (at the jet core). Since the 1990s the climate change impact on the EBCS is being studied, nevertheless some lack of consensus still persists regarding the evolution of upwelling and other components of the climate system in these areas. However, recently some authors have shown that changes are to be expected concerning the timing, intensity and spatial homogeneity of coastal upwelling and of CLLJs, in response to future warming, especially at higher latitudes, namely in Iberia and Canaries. In this study, the first climate change assessment study regarding the Western Iberian CLLJ, using a high resolution (9km) regional climate simulation, is presented. The properties of this CLLJ are studied and compared using two 30 years simulations: one historical simulation for the 1971-2000 period, and another simulation for future climate, in agreement with the RCP8.5 scenario, for the 2071-2100 period. Robust and consistent changes are found: 1) the hourly frequency of occurrence of the CLLJ is expected to increase in summer along the western Iberian coast, from mean maximum values of around 35% to approximately 50%; 2) the relative increase of the CLLJ frequency of occurrence is higher in the north off western Iberia

  16. Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

  17. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Adger, W Neil; Barnett, Jon; Perry, Allison L; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

  18. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louisa S Evans

    Full Text Available Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

  19. TEN YEARS AFTER THE GLOBAL CRISES - EXPORTS RECOVERY AT REGIONAL LEVEL IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur-Emilian SIMION

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available After ten years of the global financial crises, which peak in Romania was 2009, the negative impact on exports and imports of Romania are still in place for some Romanian counties. The scale of the impact highlights the strong connections between the national economy and the economy of the other EU countries, which have suffered during the crisis because of falling demand for imports from Romania. The good export recovery is not a favorable thing for those counties who focused theirs exports on primary products, products based on natural resources and low-technology products. These exports lead to the decrease in foreign exchange earnings and implicitly the potential of endogenous growth at the county level, mainly due to deteriorating terms of trade. The paper is focused on Romanian exports recovery analysis, taking into account the impact of world financial crisis, which started in Romania in 2009. A special attention is paid to the recovery of exports at the regional level and to the importance of the structural changes of Romanian export, occurred in 2017 compared to 2008. Also, in this article are analyzed the concentration of exports at county level, the main partners on export, the share of the first 10 partners and evolution of export per capita at the counties level. The trade balance is used to classify the counties in: net exporters (export>import and net importers (import>export.

  20. Study of the relationship between the development level and degree of income inequality in the Russian regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Yuryevna Malkina

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this article is the types of relationship between economic development and degree of income inequality in the regions of the Russian Federation. Research methods: testing the modified Kuznets hypothesis; relative deflating of regional parameters; calculating the differentiation and localization coefficients; constructing the Lorentz curves; correlation and regression analysis. Obtained results: 1 for Russian regions author discovered significant direct statistical relationship between the Gini and funds coefficients and the level of real per capita income with increasing returns, as well as less strong direct relationship between coefficients of differentiation mentioned above and the real GDP per capita with diminishing returns; 2 the “social wellbeing” coefficient is proposed and calculated for the regions, which based on localization index of real per capita income relative to the differentiation coefficient, and 3 the degree of interregional disparities in the Russian Federation is evaluated on the basis of the Gini coefficient, coefficient of variation and relative entropy for the nominal and real income and GRP per capita, and Lorenz curves for them are constructed. In this paper, author concluded: 1 presently the level of economic development of the Russian Federation regions negatively affects their income equality due to most of them are on the ascending branch of the S. Kuznets curve, 2 “social welfare” coefficient changes the positions of the middle-income regions more, than that of other regions, and 3 two factors have a positive impact on reducing the regional disparities: more ratio of total personal income to GRP in poor regions relative to rich ones (i.e. greater “social orientation” of poor regions, and positive correlation between income and the cost of living in the regions. The obtained results can be used by researchers in further testing the modified Kuznets hypothesis, as well as by local

  1. Climate change vulnerability in Ethiopia : disaggregation of Tigray Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gidey Gebrehiwot, T.; Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and variability severely affect rural livelihoods and agricultural productivity, yet they are causes of stress vulnerable rural households have to cope with. This paper investigated farming communities' vulnerability to climate change and climate variability across 34

  2. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 2006 to 2016 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  3. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 2001 to 2016 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  4. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1992 to 2001 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Hawaii

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  5. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1985 to 2006 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  6. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1996 to 2001 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  7. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 2001 to 2005 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Hawaii

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  8. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1992 to 2006 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  9. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 2001 to 2006 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  10. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1996 to 2010 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  11. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 2006 to 2010 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  12. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1992 to 2001 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  13. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1975 to 2010 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  14. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1996 to 2016 Regional Land Cover Change Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  15. Design Life Level: Quantifying risk in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rootzén, Holger; Katz, Richard W.

    2013-09-01

    In the past, the concepts of return levels and return periods have been standard and important tools for engineering design. However, these concepts are based on the assumption of a stationary climate and do not apply to a changing climate, whether local or global. In this paper, we propose a refined concept, Design Life Level, which quantifies risk in a nonstationary climate and can serve as the basis for communication. In current practice, typical hydrologic risk management focuses on a standard (e.g., in terms of a high quantile corresponding to the specified probability of failure for a single year). Nevertheless, the basic information needed for engineering design should consist of (i) the design life period (e.g., the next 50 years, say 2015-2064); and (ii) the probability (e.g., 5% chance) of a hazardous event (typically, in the form of the hydrologic variable exceeding a high level) occurring during the design life period. Capturing both of these design characteristics, the Design Life Level is defined as an upper quantile (e.g., 5%) of the distribution of the maximum value of the hydrologic variable (e.g., water level) over the design life period. We relate this concept and variants of it to existing literature and illustrate how they, and some useful complementary plots, may be computed and used. One practically important consideration concerns quantifying the statistical uncertainty in estimating a high quantile under nonstationarity.

  16. Urban and regional change in Australia: an empirical introduction

    OpenAIRE

    K O'Connor

    1984-01-01

    The distribution of Australian population has changed in recent years, and preliminary analysis has interpreted that change as consistent with North American experience. That interpretation involved an understanding of population change associated with climate factors, and a restructuring of industry which favoured new sectors in new locations. To explore patterns in Australian population change, shares of national population in each state for the period 1971 - 1981 were analysed. That inform...

  17. Effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level on gas hydrate stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garg, S.K.; Pritchett, W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States)

    2008-07-01

    Natural gas hydrates occur in oceanic sediments and in permafrost regions around the world. As a greenhouse gas, large amounts of methane released from the global hydrate reservoir would have a significant impact on Earth's climate. The role of methane released by hydrate dissociation in climate change is uncertain. However, changes in global climate such as glaciation and warming can destabilize the hydrates. During the last glacial maximum, the sea level dropped about 100 meters. It has been suggested that the sea-level fall was associated with gas hydrate instability and seafloor slumping. This paper investigated the effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea level on gas hydrate stability and on gas venting at the seafloor. A one-dimensional numerical computer model (simulator) was developed to describe methane hydrate formation, decomposition, reformation, and distribution with depth below the seafloor in the marine environment. The simulator was utilized to model hydrate distributions at two sites, notably Blake Ridge, located offshore South Carolina and Hydrate Ridge, located off the coast of Oregon. The numerical models for the two sites were conditioned by matching the sulfate, chlorinity, and hydrate distribution measurements. The effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level on gas hydrate stability were then investigated. It was concluded that for Blake Ridge, changes in hydrate concentration were small. Both the changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level led to a substantial increase in gas venting at the seafloor for Hydrate Ridge. 17 refs., 8 figs.

  18. Topography of sound level representation in the FM sweep selective region of the pallid bat auditory cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Measor, Kevin; Yarrow, Stuart; Razak, Khaleel A

    2018-05-26

    Sound level processing is a fundamental function of the auditory system. To determine how the cortex represents sound level, it is important to quantify how changes in level alter the spatiotemporal structure of cortical ensemble activity. This is particularly true for echolocating bats that have control over, and often rapidly adjust, call level to actively change echo level. To understand how cortical activity may change with sound level, here we mapped response rate and latency changes with sound level in the auditory cortex of the pallid bat. The pallid bat uses a 60-30 kHz downward frequency modulated (FM) sweep for echolocation. Neurons tuned to frequencies between 30 and 70 kHz in the auditory cortex are selective for the properties of FM sweeps used in echolocation forming the FM sweep selective region (FMSR). The FMSR is strongly selective for sound level between 30 and 50 dB SPL. Here we mapped the topography of level selectivity in the FMSR using downward FM sweeps and show that neurons with more monotonic rate level functions are located in caudomedial regions of the FMSR overlapping with high frequency (50-60 kHz) neurons. Non-monotonic neurons dominate the FMSR, and are distributed across the entire region, but there is no evidence for amplitopy. We also examined how first spike latency of FMSR neurons change with sound level. The majority of FMSR neurons exhibit paradoxical latency shift wherein the latency increases with sound level. Moreover, neurons with paradoxical latency shifts are more strongly level selective and are tuned to lower sound level than neurons in which latencies decrease with level. These data indicate a clustered arrangement of neurons according to monotonicity, with no strong evidence for finer scale topography, in the FMSR. The latency analysis suggests mechanisms for strong level selectivity that is based on relative timing of excitatory and inhibitory inputs. Taken together, these data suggest how the spatiotemporal

  19. FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN REGIONAL ECONOMIES: A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Sudhir K. THAKUR

    2011-01-01

    Regional economic structure is defined as the composition and patterns of various components of the regional economy such as: produc-tion, employment, consumption, trade, and gross regional product. Structur-al change is conceptualized as the change in relative importance of the aggregate indicators of the economy. The process of regional development and structural change are intertwined, implying as economic development takes place the strength and direction of intersectoral relationships ch...

  20. A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

  1. The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM precipitation to long term changes in regional anthropogenic aerosols (sulphate and black carbon is explored in an atmospheric general circulation model, the atmospheric component of the UK High-Resolution Global Environment Model v1.2 (HiGAM. Separately, sulphur dioxide (SO2 and black carbon (BC emissions in 1950 and 2000 over East Asia are used to drive model simulations, while emissions are kept constant at year 2000 level outside this region. The response of the EASM is examined by comparing simulations driven by aerosol emissions representative of 1950 and 2000. The aerosol radiative effects are also determined using an off-line radiative transfer model. During June, July and August, the EASM was not significantly changed as either SO2 or BC emissions increased from 1950 to 2000 levels. However, in September, precipitation is significantly decreased by 26.4% for sulphate aerosol and 14.6% for black carbon when emissions are at the 2000 level. Over 80% of the decrease is attributed to changes in convective precipitation. The cooler land surface temperature over China in September (0.8 °C for sulphate and 0.5 °C for black carbon due to increased aerosols reduces the surface thermal contrast that supports the EASM circulation. However, mechanisms causing the surface temperature decrease in September are different between sulphate and BC experiments. In the sulphate experiment, the sulphate direct and the 1st indirect radiative effects contribute to the surface cooling. In the BC experiment, the BC direct effect is the main driver of the surface cooling, however, a decrease in low cloud cover due to the increased heating by BC absorption partially counteracts the direct effect. This results in a weaker land surface temperature response to BC changes than to sulphate changes. The resulting precipitation response is also weaker, and the responses of the monsoon circulation

  2. Clusterin levels are increased in Alzheimer's disease and influence the regional distribution of Aβ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miners, J Scott; Clarke, Polly; Love, Seth

    2017-05-01

    Clusterin, also known as apoJ, is a lipoprotein abundantly expressed within the CNS. It regulates Aβ fibril formation and toxicity and facilitates amyloid-β (Aβ) transport across the blood-brain barrier. Genome-wide association studies have shown variations in the clusterin gene (CLU) to influence the risk of developing sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD). To explore whether clusterin modulates the regional deposition of Aβ, we measured levels of soluble (NP40-extracted) and insoluble (guanidine-HCl-extracted) clusterin, Aβ40 and Aβ42 by sandwich ELISA in brain regions with a predilection for amyloid pathology-mid-frontal cortex (MF), cingulate cortex (CC), parahippocampal cortex (PH), and regions with little or no pathology-thalamus (TH) and white matter (WM). Clusterin level was highest in regions with plaque pathology (MF, CC, PH and PC), approximately mirroring the regional distribution of Aβ. It was significantly higher in AD than controls, and correlated positively with Aβ42 and insoluble Aβ40. Soluble clusterin level rose significantly with severity of cerebral amyloid angiopathy, and in MF and PC regions was highest in APOE ɛ4 homozygotes. In the TH and WM (areas with little amyloid pathology) clusterin was unaltered in AD and did not correlate with Aβ level. There was a significant positive correlation between the concentration of clusterin and the regional levels of insoluble Aβ42; however, the molar ratio of clusterin : Aβ42 declined with insoluble Aβ42 level in a region-dependent manner, being lowest in regions with predilection for Aβ plaque pathology. Under physiological conditions, clusterin reduces aggregation and promotes clearance of Aβ. Our findings indicate that in AD, clusterin increases, particularly in regions with most abundant Aβ, but because the increase does not match the rising level of Aβ42, the molar ratio of clusterin : Aβ42 in those regions falls, probably contributing to Aβ deposition within the tissue. © 2016

  3. Simulation of regional temperature change effect of land cover change in agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tingxiang; Zhang, Shuwen; Yu, Lingxue; Bu, Kun; Yang, Jiuchun; Chang, Liping

    2017-05-01

    The Northeast China is one of typical regions experiencing intensive human activities within short time worldwide. Particularly, as the significant changes of agriculture land and forest, typical characteristics of pattern and process of agroforestry ecotone change formed in recent decades. The intensive land use change of agroforestry ecotone has made significant change for regional land cover, which had significant impact on the regional climate system elements and the interactions among them. This paper took agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China as study region and simulated temperature change based on land cover change from 1950s to 1978 and from 1978 to 2010. The analysis of temperature difference sensitivity to land cover change based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model showed that the land cover change from 1950s to 1978 induced warming effect over all the study area, including the change of grassland to agriculture land, grassland to deciduous broad-leaved forest, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to shrub land. The land cover change from 1978 to 2010 induced cooling effect over all the study area, including the change of deciduous broad-leaved forest to agriculture land, grassland to agriculture land, shrub land to agriculture land, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to grassland. In addition, the warming and cooling effect of land cover change was more significant in the region scale than specific land cover change area.

  4. A regional response to global climate change: New England and eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houtman, N.

    1994-01-01

    Resource managers, scientists, and policy makers from New England and eastern Canada assembled at a 1993 symposium to consider the regional implications of global climate change and to develop state and provincial adaptation strategies. A summary is presented of issues discussed at this meeting, information gaps identified, and recommendations for an appropriate regional response. The symposium began with a regional overview and a review of the climate system and possible environmental impacts of global warming. Policy implications were also discussed. Working groups considered issues related to energy use, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry and agriculture, recreation and tourism, and sea level rise. Given the remaining uncertainties about the timing and extent of global warming, especially on a regional scale, the symposium recommended adoption of a series of measures which are beneficial in their own right and in the face of present variations of climate and its extremes. The recommendations were characterized by three broad themes: diversification of the natural resources based economy; risks to human health, ecological communities, and economic infrastructure; and information development and sharing. Proposed strategies were grouped in four major categories: adaptation to future changes; trend assessment; education; and limitation of greenhouse gas emissions

  5. Global and regional climate change: new evidences between two IPCC reports

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mika, J. [Eszterhazy Karoly College, Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Geography

    2011-07-01

    The climate of our planet has never been constant, but the recent changes are by two orders of magnitude faster than the natural changes since the appearance of anthropogenic effects. The discernable global warming started in the 19th century and after speeding up in the 20th century, it has reached about 0.8 K. This fact and the realization of the likely reasons for the changes, plus rapid development of computer technology have resulted in systematic investigations of climate science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finalized its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. The present paper suveys some recent moments of global and regional climate change issued after the Report. Even the economic crisis was not strong enough to deflect the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing for more than one year. It tends to develop at the upper edge of the IPCC (2007) projection band of uncertainties. The part of the emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere is increasing due to weakening of both the biospheric- and the oceanic sinks of this greenhouse gas. The new radiation balance estimations must admit the imbalance between the atmosphere and the oceans indicating the fact that the greenhouse warming definitely takes place. The year 2010 became most likely the warmest one on the global temperature record. The sea-level rise also follows the most rapid track among the foreseen scenarios. In the meantime modelling effort to better estimate regional features of the changes also develop in their full strength. The ENSEMBLES Project ended in December 2009 and published a lot of maps with 25 km model resolution. These results, however, do not show convergence in the estimations for many regions, including Central Europe.

  6. 27 CFR 40.111 - Change in location within same region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... same region. 40.111 Section 40.111 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND... Products Changes in Location of Factory § 40.111 Change in location within same region. Whenever a manufacturer of tobacco products intends to relocate his factory within the same region, the manufacturer shall...

  7. 27 CFR 40.113 - Change in location to another region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... another region. 40.113 Section 40.113 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND... Products Changes in Location of Factory § 40.113 Change in location to another region. Whenever a manufacturer of tobacco products intends to remove his factory to another region, the manufacturer shall...

  8. Tracking Regional Tissue Volume and Function Change in Lung Using Image Registration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunlin Cao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We have previously demonstrated the 24-hour redistribution and reabsorption of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL fluid delivered to the lung during a bronchoscopic procedure in normal volunteers. In this work we utilize image-matching procedures to correlate fluid redistribution and reabsorption to changes in regional lung function. Lung CT datasets from six human subjects were used in this study. Each subject was scanned at four time points before and after BAL procedure. Image registration was performed to align images at different time points and different inflation levels. The resulting dense displacement fields were utilized to track tissue volume changes and reveal deformation patterns of local parenchymal tissue quantitatively. The registration accuracy was assessed by measuring landmark matching errors, which were on the order of 1 mm. The results show that quantitative-assessed fluid volume agreed well with bronchoscopist-reported unretrieved BAL volume in the whole lungs (squared linear correlation coefficient was 0.81. The average difference of lung tissue volume at baseline and after 24 hours was around 2%, which indicates that BAL fluid in the lungs was almost absorbed after 24 hours. Regional lung-function changes correlated with the presence of BAL fluid, and regional function returned to baseline as the fluid was reabsorbed.

  9. Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin; Hawkins, Ed; Jonko, Alexandra; Lowe, Jason A.

    2016-12-01

    For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.

  10. Influence of local and regional Mediterranean meteorology on SO₂ ground-level concentrations in SE Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santacatalina, Milagros; Carratalá, Adoración; Mantilla, Enrique

    2011-06-01

    This work presents the results of a 4-year study on sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) ground-level concentrations in an area of southeastern Spain, the L'Alacantí region, where the cement industry is important and coke use extends to other industries as well. The main source of SO(2) emissions in the area was found to be a the Lepold cement plant (one of the two cement plants in the area). The high levels of SO(2) probably extend back to 1920 when this plant began operations. Both local and Mediterranean-scale meteorological processes influence the SO(2) ground-level concentration and together explain the dispersion dynamics of this pollutant. The location and topography of the study zone result in NW Atlantic advections and E-SE sea breezes being the dominant atmospheric circulation patterns in the area. Under stable meteorological conditions, minor local circulations are also relevant to the SO(2) concentration levels. The high frequency of local circulations determines a concentration pattern that changes during the day, with impacts occurring preferentially in a W-NW direction from the source at midday (sea breeze and strong thermal mixture), and in a SE direction at night. This causes the SO(2) concentrations to present well-defined diurnal cycles with well-differentiated shapes depending on the location of the sampling station relative to the source. The dependence of SO(2) 10 min levels on the wind origin and speed throughout the day has been evaluated by studying statistical parameters including P95, P50 and arithmetic mean. Exceedances occur under specific dispersion conditions at distances less than 1 km from the source. However, the source is traceable at larger distances and the levels are higher than typical urban ones. P95 was used as an estimator of the occurrence of larger levels or impacts. Leeward of NW winds and the source, at night and in early morning, P95 levels are comprised between 30 and 55 µg m(-3). In contrast, with SE winds and at midday, P95

  11. Regional Disparities in Education Attainment Level in the European Union: A Spatial Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chocholatá Michaela

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the analysis of education attainment level across the 252 NUTS 2 regions of the European Union (EU with consideration of the spatial aspect. Since the individual EU regions cannot be seen as isolated, the main aim of this article is to assess the impact of location on the education attainment level (percentage of population aged 25–64 with at least upper secondary education during the period 2007–2015, as well as to investigate the impact of regional growth 2014/2007 on the education attainment level in 2015. The spatial analysis proved the existence of positive spatial autocorrelation and persistence of disparities in education attainment level across EU regions during the analysed period. The results of econometric analysis confirmed the expected positive impact of economic growth on education attainment level as well as the necessity to incorporate the spatial dimension into the model.

  12. The Digital North Denmark Programme -Promoting Regional Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Christian Richter

    2007-01-01

    The Digital North Denmark (DDN) was an IT programme running from 2000 to 2003 in the North Jutland County in Denmark with national government support of € 23 million. The Danish government initiated the programme with the aim of further strengthening regions with an already proven ICT capability...... (Dybkjær and Lindegaard, 1999, p.96-100). The declared approach was to build on the existing competencies in industry as well as at universities. The national government chose two regions – Ørestaden, a new concentration of knowledge-based institutions near Copenhagen Airport, and North Jutland......-offers within four themes. The participants - meant to be project consortia of ideally private firms, public or private organisations as well as regional and municipal government bodies - could get a maximum national government support of one third of the total project sum.This chapter investigates how...

  13. Climate Change Impacts on the Congo Basin Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Franssen, W.; Jans, W.W.P.; Kruijt, B.; Supit, I.

    2012-01-01

    This report presents analyses of climate change impacts in the Congo Basin on water for agriculture and hydropower, forest ecosystem functioning and carbon storage and impacts of climate variability and change on future economic development. To quantify the impacts of future climate we developed a

  14. Holocene sea-level changes in the Falkland Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Tom; Gehrels, Roland; Daley, Tim; Long, Antony; Bentley, Mike

    2014-05-01

    In many locations in the southern hemisphere, relative sea level (RSL) reached its maximum position during the middle Holocene. This highstand is used by models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to constrain the melt histories of the large ice sheets, particularly Antarctica. In this paper we present the first Holocene sea-level record from the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), an archipelago located on the Patagonian continental shelf about 500 km east of mainland South America at a latitude of ca. 52 degrees. Unlike coastal locations in southernmost South America, Holocene sea-level data from the Falklands are not influenced by tectonics, local ice loading effects and large tidal ranges such that GIA and ice-ocean mass flux are the dominant drivers of RSL change. Our study site is a salt marsh located in Swan Inlet in East Falkland, around 50 km southwest of Stanley. This is the largest and best developed salt marsh in the Falkland Islands. Cores were collected in 2005 and 2013. Lithostratigraphic analyses were complemented by analyses of foraminifera, testate amoebae and diatoms to infer palaeoenvironments. The bedrock, a Permian black shale, is overlain by grey-brown organic salt-marsh clay, up to 90 cm thick, which, in a landward direction, is replaced by freshwater organic sediments. Overlying these units are medium-coarse sands with occasional pebbles, up to 115 cm thick, containing tidal flat foraminifera. The sandy unit is erosively overlain by a grey-brown organic salt-marsh peat which extends up to the present surface. Further away from the sea this unit is predominantly of freshwater origin. Based on 13 radiocarbon dates we infer that prior to ~9.5 ka sea level was several metres below present. Under rising sea levels a salt marsh developed which was suddenly drowned around 8.4 ka, synchronous with a sea-level jump known from northern hemisphere locations. Following the drowning, RSL rose to its maximum position around 7 ka, less than 0.5 m above

  15. Causes of environmental change in the Alligator Rivers region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skidmore, J.

    1990-01-01

    Covering some 28,000 square kilometres of the Northern Territory, the Alligator Rivers Region (ARR) includes the catchments of the East, South and West Alligator Rivers, and many small abandoned uranium mines. To introduce the problems of human impact on the ARR, the toxicologically significant aspects of the local environment were first examined, then the possible effects on it of mining and other human activities. It was found that the most deleterious impact on the region is not caused by mining but by human settlement, introduction of animals (notably the buffalo) and plants, the use of fire and tourism

  16. Gradient augmented level set method for phase change simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anumolu, Lakshman; Trujillo, Mario F.

    2018-01-01

    A numerical method for the simulation of two-phase flow with phase change based on the Gradient-Augmented-Level-set (GALS) strategy is presented. Sharp capturing of the vaporization process is enabled by: i) identification of the vapor-liquid interface, Γ (t), at the subgrid level, ii) discontinuous treatment of thermal physical properties (except for μ), and iii) enforcement of mass, momentum, and energy jump conditions, where the gradients of the dependent variables are obtained at Γ (t) and are consistent with their analytical expression, i.e. no local averaging is applied. Treatment of the jump in velocity and pressure at Γ (t) is achieved using the Ghost Fluid Method. The solution of the energy equation employs the sub-grid knowledge of Γ (t) to discretize the temperature Laplacian using second-order one-sided differences, i.e. the numerical stencil completely resides within each respective phase. To carefully evaluate the benefits or disadvantages of the GALS approach, the standard level set method is implemented and compared against the GALS predictions. The results show the expected trend that interface identification and transport are predicted noticeably better with GALS over the standard level set. This benefit carries over to the prediction of the Laplacian and temperature gradients in the neighborhood of the interface, which are directly linked to the calculation of the vaporization rate. However, when combining the calculation of interface transport and reinitialization with two-phase momentum and energy, the benefits of GALS are to some extent neutralized, and the causes for this behavior are identified and analyzed. Overall the additional computational costs associated with GALS are almost the same as those using the standard level set technique.

  17. Ground Level Ozone Regional Background Characteristics In North-west Pacific Rim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, C.; Fan, J.; Chang, J. S.

    2007-12-01

    Understanding the ground level ozone regional background characteristics is essential in understanding the contribution of long-range transport of pollutants from Asia Mainland to air quality in downwind areas. In order to understand this characteristic in north-west Pacific Rim, we conducted a coupled study using ozone observation from regional background stations and 3-D regional-scale chemical transport model simulations. We used O3, CO, wind speed and wind direction data from two regional background stations and ¡§other stations¡¨ over a ten year period and organized several numerical experiments to simulate one spring month in 2003 to obtain a deeper understanding. The so called ¡§other stations¡¨ had actually been named as background stations under various governmental auspices. But we found them to be often under strong influence of local pollution sources with strong diurnal or slightly longer time variations. We found that the Yonagunijima station (24.74 N, 123.02 E) and Heng-Chuen station (21.96 N,120.78 E), about a distance of 400 km apart, have almost the same ozone time series pattern. For these two stations in 2003, correlation coefficients (R2) for annual observed ozone concentration is about 0.64, in the springtime it is about 0.7, and in a one-month period at simulation days it is about 0.76. These two stations have very little small scale variations in all the variables studied. All variations are associated with large scale circulation changes. This is especially so at Yonagunijima station. Using a 3-D regional-scale chemical transport model for East Asia region including contribution from Asia continental outflow and neighboring island pollution areas we found that the Yonagunijima and HengChuen station are indeed free of pollutants from all neighboring areas keeping in mind that pollutants from Taiwan area is never far away. Ozone concentrations in these two stations are dominated by synoptic scale weather patterns, with diffused

  18. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ENTREPRENEURIAL ENVIRONMENT AT REGIONAL LEVEL IN ROMANIA. CASE STUDY: THE REGION OF SOUTH-WEST OLTENIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BĂLĂCESCU ANIELA

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study is a descriptive statistic of the regional entrepreneurial environment in Romania, focusing on South-West Oltenia, with the aim that surprised the level of entrepreneurship in this area. In this study we considered the demographic analysis of active enterprises at the 8 development regions of Romania, the survival rate of enterprises, the competitiveness, and profile of the entrepreneur. The period under review is 2008-2014, and the main sources of information were the databases of the National Institute of Statistics and the National Trade Register Office

  19. High-spin states in 136La and possible structure change in the N =79 region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishibata, H.; Leguillon, R.; Odahara, A.; Shimoda, T.; Petrache, C. M.; Ito, Y.; Takatsu, J.; Tajiri, K.; Hamatani, N.; Yokoyama, R.; Ideguchi, E.; Watanabe, H.; Wakabayashi, Y.; Yoshinaga, K.; Suzuki, T.; Nishimura, S.; Beaumel, D.; Lehaut, G.; Guinet, D.; Desesquelles, P.; Curien, D.; Higashiyama, K.; Yoshinaga, N.

    2015-05-01

    High-spin states in the odd-odd nucleus 136La, which is located close to the β -stability line, have been investigated in the radioactive-beam-induced fusion-evaporation reaction 124Sn(17N,5 n ). The use of the radioactive beam enabled a highly sensitive and successful search for a new isomer [14+,T1 /2=187 (27 ) ns] in 136La. In the A =130 -140 mass region, no such long-lived isomer has been observed at high spin in odd-odd nuclei. The 136La level scheme was revised, incorporating the 14+ isomer and six new levels. The results were compared with pair-truncated shell model (PTSM) calculations which successfully explain the level structure of the π h11 /2⊗ν h11/2 -1 bands in 132La and 134La. The isomerism of the 14+ state was investigated also by a collective model, the cranked Nilsson-Strutinsky (CNS) model, which explains various high-spin structures in the medium-heavy mass region. It is suggested that a new type of collective structure is induced in the PTSM model by the increase of the number of π g7 /2 pairs, and/or in the CNS model by the configuration change associated with the shape change in 136La.

  20. Strategic agency and institutional change: investigating the role of universities in regional innovation systems (RISs)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benneworth, Paul; Pinheiro, Rómulo; Karlsen, James

    2017-01-01

    Strategic agency and institutional change: investigating the role of universities in regional innovation systems (RISs). Regional Studies. Past analyses rooted in the thick description of regions successful in constructing regional innovation systems have given way to analyses more focused on the

  1. 75 FR 21979 - NRC Region II Address and Main Telephone Number Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-27

    ... Region II Address and Main Telephone Number Changes AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Final... address for its Region II office and to update the main telephone number. The Region II office move and... update the NRC Region II office street address and office main telephone number. The physical location of...

  2. Climate Change Adaptation in the Carpathian Mountain Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werners, Saskia Elisabeth; Szalai, Sándor; Zingstra, Henk; Kőpataki, Éva; Beckmann, Andreas; Bos, Ernst; Civic, Kristijan; Hlásny, Tomas; Hulea, Orieta; Jurek, Matthias; Koch, Hagen; Kondor, Attila Csaba; Kovbasko, Aleksandra; Lakatos, M.; Lambert, Stijn; Peters, Richard; Trombik, Jiří; De Velde, Van Ilse; Zsuffa, István

    2016-01-01

    The Carpathian mountain region is one of the most significant natural refuges on the European continent. It is home to Europe’s most extensive tracts of montane forest, the largest remaining virgin forest and natural mountain beech-fir forest ecosystems. Adding to the biodiversity are semi-natural

  3. Multinational enterprises, service outsourcing and regional structural change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ascani, A.; Iammarino, Simona

    2017-01-01

    This paper offers a joint analysis of two phenomena characterizing most advanced economies in recent decades: the rise of foreign ownership in manufacturing activities and the pervasiveness of the service economy. The aim of the study is to examine the structural transformation of regional economic

  4. Factors affecting regional changes in hardwood lumber production

    Science.gov (United States)

    William G. Luppold; Gilbert P. Dempsey; Gilbert P. Dempsey

    1994-01-01

    Hardwood lumber production increased by nearly 1.8 billion board feet between 1986 and 1990 and decreased sharply in 1991. However, not all areas of the country experienced the same growth in hardwood lumber production during the 1980s. While lumber production in inland regions of the eastern United States and the west increased during the 1980s, lumber output in...

  5. Successive leadership changes in the regional jet industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vertesy, D.

    2014-01-01

    This study examines leadership dynamics in the regional jet manufacturing industry from the 1980s onwards. With the help of leading products (aircraft or aircraft family), British Aerospace (BAe), Fokker, Bombardier and Embraer consecutively took the leadership in terms of new deliveries. In order

  6. Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

  7. Regional scenarios of future climate change over southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, F

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available positive chill units. 31 Winter (Apr - Sep) CASE STUDY - Global change impacts on agriculture and water: South Africa?s Garden Route 33 7 Global change and human health 35 CASE STUDY - Environmental health: Bridging the gap between traditional... days). Annual (Jan - Dec) 31 Map 6.2 Intermediate future - present (degree days). Accumulated heat units. 31 Annual (Jan - Dec) Map 6.3 Accumulated positive chill units. Winter (Apr - Sep) 31 Map 6.4 Intermediate future - present. Accumulated...

  8. Changing Professional Demands in Sustainable Regional Development: A Curriculum Design Process to meet Transboundary Competence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lansu, Angelique; Boon, Jo; Sloep, Peter; van Dam-Mieras, Rietje

    2012-01-01

    Lansu, A., Boon, J., Sloep, P. B., & Van Dam-Mieras, R. (Accepted). Changing Professional Demands in Sustainable Regional Development: A Curriculum Design Process to meet Transboundary Competence. Journal of Cleaner Production. [Special Issue: Learning for Sustainable Development in Regional

  9. Rate of Change in Lake Level and its Impact on Reservoir-triggered Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, D. W.

    2017-12-01

    With recent interest in increased seismicity related to fluid injection, it is useful to review cases of reservoir-triggered earthquakes to explore common characteristics and seek ways to mitigate the influence of anthropogenic impacts. Three reservoirs - Koyna, India; Nurek, Tajikistan; and Aswan, Egypt - are well-documented cases of triggered earthquakes with recorded time series of seismicity and water levels that extend for more than 30 years. The geological setting, regional tectonics and modes of reservoir utilization, along with the characteristics of the reservoir-seismicity interaction, are distinctly different in each of these three cases. Similarities and differences between these three cases point to regional and local geological and hydrological structures and the rate of changes in reservoir water level as important factors controlling the presence and timing of triggered seismicity. In a manner similar to the way in which the rate of fluid injection influences injection-related seismicity, the rate of change in reservoir water level is a significant factor in determining whether or not reservoir-triggered seismicity occurs. The high rate of annual water level rise may be important in sustaining the exceptionally long sequence of earthquakes at Koyna. In addition to the rate of filling being a determining factor in whether or not earthquakes are triggered, changes in the rate of filling may influence the time of occurrence of individual earthquakes.

  10. Climatic change in the Great Plains region of Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rizzo, B.

    1991-01-01

    Implications of global warming to Canada's Great Plains region are discussed, with reference to the climate predictions of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model under a two times atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration scenario. Two sets of climate variables for a geographic area located in the Great Plains are tabulated, for the current (1951-1980) climate normals and under the doubled carbon dioxide scenario. Simple univariate statistics were calculated for the two areas, for the variables of mean annual temperature, mean summer temperature, mean winter temperature, mean July temperature, mean growing season temperature, total annual precipitation, total summer precipitation, total winter precipitation, and total growing season precipitation. Under the GISS scenario, temperature values are on average 4 degree C higher than 1951-1980 normals, while precipitation remains about the same. Locations of ecoclimatic regions are graphed for the whole of Canada. 1 fig., 1 tab

  11. A Bayesian Belief Network framework to predict SOC stock change: the Veneto region (Italy) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Ferro, Nicola; Quinn, Claire Helen; Morari, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    A key challenge for soil scientists is predicting agricultural management scenarios that combine crop productions with high standards of environmental quality. In this context, reversing the soil organic carbon (SOC) decline in croplands is required for maintaining soil fertility and contributing to mitigate GHGs emissions. Bayesian belief networks (BBN) are probabilistic models able to accommodate uncertainty and variability in the predictions of the impacts of management and environmental changes. By linking multiple qualitative and quantitative variables in a cause-and-effect relationships, BBNs can be used as a decision support system at different spatial scales to find best management strategies in the agroecosystems. In this work we built a BBN to model SOC dynamics (0-30 cm layer) in the low-lying plain of Veneto region, north-eastern Italy, and define best practices leading to SOC accumulation and GHGs (CO2-equivalent) emissions reduction. Regional pedo-climatic, land use and management information were combined with experimental and modelled data on soil C dynamics as natural and anthropic key drivers affecting SOC stock change. Moreover, utility nodes were introduced to determine optimal decisions for mitigating GHGs emissions from croplands considering also three different IPCC climate scenarios. The network was finally validated with real field data in terms of SOC stock change. Results showed that the BBN was able to model real SOC stock changes, since validation slightly overestimated SOC reduction (+5%) at the expenses of its accumulation. At regional level, probability distributions showed 50% of SOC loss, while only 17% of accumulation. However, the greatest losses (34%) were associated with low reduction rates (100-500 kg C ha-1 y-1), followed by 33% of stabilized conditions (-100 < SOC < 100 kg ha-1 y-1). Land use management (especially tillage operations and soil cover) played a primary role to affect SOC stock change, while climate conditions

  12. Development of a Regional Neural Network for Coastal Water Level Predictions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Huang, Wenrui; Murray, Catherine; Kraus, Nicholas; Rosati, Julie

    2003-01-01

    .... Fortunately, the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a national network of water level monitoring stations distributed in regional scale that has been operating for several decades...

  13. Climate Change in Alpine Regions - Regional Characteristics of a Global Phenomenon by the Example of Air Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Erich; Stary, Ulrike

    2017-04-01

    For nearly 50 years the Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW) has been engaged in research in the Alpine region recording measuring data at extreme sites. Data series of this duration provide already a good insight into the evolution of climate parameters. Extrapolations derived from it are suitable for comparison with results from climate change models or supplement them with regard to their informative value. This is useful because climate change models describe a simplified picture of reality based on the size of the data grid they use. Analysis of time series of two air temperature measuring stations in different torrent catchment areas indicate that 1) predictions of temperature rise for the Alpine region in Austria will have to be revised upwards, and 2) only looking at the data of seasons (or shorter time periods), reveals the real dramatic effect of climate change. Considering e.g. the annual average data of air temperature of the years 1969-2016 at the climate station "Fleissner" (altitude 1210m a.s.l; Upper Mölltal, Carinthia) a significant upward trend is visible. Using a linear smoothing function an increase of the average annual air temperature of about 2.2°C within 50 years emerges. The calculated temperature rise thus confirms the general fear of an increase of more than 2.0°C till the middle of the 21st century. Looking at the seasonal change of air temperature, significant positive trends are shown in all four seasons. But the level of the respective temperature increase varies considerably and indicates the highest increase in spring (+3.3°C), and the lowest one in autumn (+1.3°C, extrapolated for a time period of 50 years). The maximum increase of air temperature at the measuring station "Pumpenhaus" (altitude 980m a.s.l), which is situated in the "Karnische Alpen" in the south of Austria, is even stronger. From a time series of 28 years (with data recording starting in 1989) the maximum rise of temperature was 5.4°C detected for the

  14. Changing patterns of migration in the Adriatic region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatzer, P

    1988-06-01

    International migration in the Adriatic countries of Albania, Greece, Italy, San Marino, and Yugoslavia is briefly examined using data from official and other published sources. The main types of migratory movements identified by the author within the region are "1) economically motivated migration (legal and clandestine); 2) immigration of refugees for resettlement; 3) immigration with the scope of final resettlement in a third country (transit movements); [and] 4) return migration by former emigrants." excerpt

  15. Observed Sea-Level Changes along the Norwegian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian Breili

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Norway’s national sea level observing system consists of an extensive array of tide gauges, permanent GNSS stations, and lines of repeated levelling. Here, we make use of this observation system to calculate relative sea-level rates and rates corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA along the Norwegian coast for three different periods, i.e., 1960 to 2010, 1984 to 2014, and 1993 to 2016. For all periods, the relative sea-level rates show considerable spatial variations that are largely due to differences in vertical land motion due to GIA. The variation is reduced by applying corrections for vertical land motion and associated gravitational effects on sea level. For 1960 to 2010 and 1984 to 2014, the coastal average GIA-corrected rates for Norway are 2.0 ± 0.6 mm/year and 2.2 ± 0.6 mm/year, respectively. This is close to the rate of global sea-level rise for the same periods. For the most recent period, 1993 to 2016, the GIA-corrected coastal average is 3.5 ± 0.6 mm/year and 3.2 ± 0.6 mm/year with and without inverse barometer (IB corrections, respectively, which is significantly higher than for the two earlier periods. For 1993 to 2016, the coastal average IB-corrected rates show broad agreement with two independent sets of altimetry. This suggests that there is no systematic error in the vertical land motion corrections applied to the tide-gauge data. At the same time, altimetry does not capture the spatial variation identified in the tide-gauge records. This could be an effect of using altimetry observations off the coast instead of directly at each tide gauge. Finally, we note that, owing to natural variability in the climate system, our estimates are highly sensitive to the selected study period. For example, using a 30-year moving window, we find that the estimated rates may change by up to 1 mm/year when shifting the start epoch by only one year.

  16. Interannual water-level fluctuations and the vegetation of prairie potholes: Potential impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Valk, Arnold; Mushet, David M.

    2016-01-01

    Mean water depth and range of interannual water-level fluctuations over wet-dry cycles in precipitation are major drivers of vegetation zone formation in North American prairie potholes. We used harmonic hydrological models, which require only mean interannual water depth and amplitude of water-level fluctuations over a wet–dry cycle, to examine how the vegetation zones in a pothole would respond to small changes in water depth and/or amplitude of water-level fluctuations. Field data from wetlands in Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and South Dakota were used to parameterize harmonic models for four pothole classes. Six scenarios in which small negative or positive changes in either mean water depth, amplitude of interannual fluctuations, or both, were modeled to predict if they would affect the number of zones in each wetland class. The results indicated that, in some cases, even small changes in mean water depth when coupled with a small change in amplitude of water-level fluctuations can shift a prairie pothole wetland from one class to another. Our results suggest that climate change could alter the relative proportion of different wetland classes in the prairie pothole region.

  17. Regional cerebral blood flow changes in patients with internet addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otte, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    Dear Editor, Internet addiction (IA) has become a severe challenge of our modern world today, though little is known about its pathology. In this context, the interesting study by Liu et al. in the May-August 2016 issue of HJNM using 99m Tc-labelled ethylene biyldicysteinate dimer single photon emission tomography (SPET) at rest and after pharmaceutical (adenosine) stress is more than welcomed. As this seems to be the first perfusion SPET study in this indication, the obtained data may be discussed carefully. There are mainly the following questions: a) Regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF): There is no description on how the rCBF was calculated: Was it scaled relatively to the whole brain mean value or to the cerebellar mean value? b) P value threshold and clusters: There is no indication of whether the authors are performing any kind of correction for multiple comparisons in the statistical parametric mapping (SPM) t-test. This, combined with the use of a really "liberal" voxel P value of only 0.01 could be subject to providing many false positive results. Generally a P value threshold of 0.001 should be used. In addition, there is no information related to the clusters. For the question of the validity of parametric statistical methods used for the analysis of functional neuroimaging data, we would like to mention the important recent paper by Eklund et al. 2016. c) Data analysis: The authors state (p. 97): "As some abnormal rCBF in adenosine-stressed state might relate with normal responses to adenosine compared to resting state, we excluded those regions that showed abnormal rCBF in stressed state in healthy controls (Table 4) from those in IA group (Table 5). The rest abnormal regions were compared between the IA group and the control group". For this, with SPM a flexible factorial design with all the data rather than only t-tests would have been interesting to find out whether the difference between the groups at stress is the same difference observed between

  18. Constructing Perceptions of Climate Change: a case study of regional political decision makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, D.

    2012-12-01

    This case study of climate change communications assesses the salient means of communication and the message adopted by regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast. Realizing that cultural factors and local values (and not simply knowledge) are significant influences in explaining attitudes towards climate change, this analysis draws from the records of regional weather, from scientists with a specific focus on the region, from the political decision makers for that region, and the media message reaching the decision makers, ensuring all elements of the analysis are drawn from the same socioeconomic, geophysical, political and cultural context. This is important as the social dynamics surrounding the trust in science is of critical importance and, as such, all elements of the case study are specifically contained within a common context. If the utility of climate change knowledge is to prompt well conceived adaptation/mitigation strategies then the political decision process, or at least the perceptions shaping it, can best be understood by locating it within the world view of the decision makers involved in the production process. Using the results of two survey questionnaires, one of regional climate scientists and one of regional political decision makers, ten years of local weather records, and a summary of the message from mass media circulation, the discord in perceptions of regional climate change are quantitatively explored. The conclusions drawn from the analysis include, compared to the scientific assessment: The decision makers' perceptions of recent past differ from actual observations. The decision makers' perceptions of the future differ from scientific assessments. The decision makers tend to over estimate the magnitude of regional climate change and its impacts. The decision makers tend to over estimate the sense of immediacy for adaptation measures. The conclusions drawn suggest that in the regional political realm, it is often a

  19. Public perceptions of planning objectives for regional level management of wild reindeer in Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Kaltenborn, Bjørn Petter; Hongslo, Eirin; Gundersen, Vegard; Andersen, Oddgeir

    2015-01-01

    We examined community perceptions of preferred objectives for wild reindeer management in Southern Norway as the former population-based model is being replaced with an area-based, multi-level regional management model spanning large mountain regions. Communally oriented objectives are favoured over economic benefits to landowners. Environmental attitudes discriminate on many of the issues and can be useful factors in sorting out levels of support for proposed management actions and compromis...

  20. ESTIMATION AND PROGNOSIS OF QUALITY OF ATMOSPHERIC AIR AT REGIONAL LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    POLISCHUK S. Z.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Raising of problem. The problem of quality of atmospheric air takes a special place among problems of protection of a surrounding environment. It is caused first of all by vital necessity of atmospheric air for all alive on the Earth, influence of a condition of an atmosphere on global climatic processes and biosphere as a whole due to huge mobility of air weights with which harmful impurity can be transferred. These questions for industrial regions where the level of anthropogenous influence has reached critical size are especially actual. The Dnepropetrovsk area concerns to such regions also. By development of scripts of development of such regions and their territorial components there is a necessity for definition of possible consequences of anthropogenous processes, which occur (or can occur in atmospheric air. It demands strengthening прогнозных functions of ecological monitoring, in particular on atmospheric air, at planning and building of territories, at a choice of the optimum script of town-planning. Purpose. To improve a subsystem of an estimation and the forecast of a condition of atmospheric air on an example of system of ecological monitoring «Pridneprov'e» the Dnepropetrovsk area by means of introduction of a complex of the mathematical models focused on large industrial region which will allow at presence of criteria and parameters to receive as statistical (for the short-term forecast during steady atmospheric processes, and dynamic estimations of a condition of atmospheric air, the forecast of changes of parameters of atmospheric air and distribution of polluting substances, and also their influence on an environment and the person. Conclusion. The offered approach allows to consider complex parameters of steady development, territorial, branch, social, economic and ecological, time aspects, opportunities of atmospheric air as a polyresource, provides the forecast and an estimation of a condition of atmospheric air

  1. Age-Related Changes in Binaural Interaction at Brainstem Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Yper, Lindsey N; Vermeire, Katrien; De Vel, Eddy F J; Beynon, Andy J; Dhooge, Ingeborg J M

    2016-01-01

    Age-related hearing loss hampers the ability to understand speech in adverse listening conditions. This is attributed to a complex interaction of changes in the peripheral and central auditory system. One aspect that may deteriorate across the lifespan is binaural interaction. The present study investigates binaural interaction at the level of the auditory brainstem. It is hypothesized that brainstem binaural interaction deteriorates with advancing age. Forty-two subjects of various age participated in the study. Auditory brainstem responses (ABRs) were recorded using clicks and 500 Hz tone-bursts. ABRs were elicited by monaural right, monaural left, and binaural stimulation. Binaural interaction was investigated in two ways. First, grand averages of the binaural interaction component were computed for each age group. Second, wave V characteristics of the binaural ABR were compared with those of the summed left and right ABRs. Binaural interaction in the click ABR was demonstrated by shorter latencies and smaller amplitudes in the binaural compared with the summed monaural responses. For 500 Hz tone-burst ABR, no latency differences were found. However, amplitudes were significantly smaller in the binaural than summed monaural condition. An age-effect was found for 500 Hz tone-burst, but not for click ABR. Brainstem binaural interaction seems to decline with age. Interestingly, these changes seem to be stimulus-dependent.

  2. Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, K.L.; Cahoon, D.R.; Feller, Ilka C.

    2007-01-01

    Aim The long-term stability of coastal ecosystems such as mangroves and salt marshes depends upon the maintenance of soil elevations within the intertidal habitat as sea level changes. We examined the rates and processes of peat formation by mangroves of the Caribbean Region to better understand biological controls on habitat stability. Location Mangrove-dominated islands on the Caribbean coasts of Belize, Honduras and Panama were selected as study sites. Methods Biological processes controlling mangrove peat formation were manipulated (in Belize) by the addition of nutrients (nitrogen or phosphorus) to Rhizophora mangle (red mangrove), and the effects on the dynamics of soil elevation were determined over a 3-year period using rod surface elevation tables (RSET) and marker horizons. Peat composition and geological accretion rates were determined at all sites using radiocarbon-dated cores. Results The addition of nutrients to mangroves caused significant changes in rates of mangrove root accumulation, which influenced both the rate and direction of change in elevation. Areas with low root input lost elevation and those with high rates gained elevation. These findings were consistent with peat analyses at multiple Caribbean sites showing that deposits (up to 10 m in depth) were composed primarily of mangrove root matter. Comparison of radiocarbon-dated cores at the study sites with a sea-level curve for the western Atlantic indicated a tight coupling between peat building in Caribbean mangroves and sea-level rise over the Holocene. Main conclusions Mangroves common to the Caribbean region have adjusted to changing sea level mainly through subsurface accumulation of refractory mangrove roots. Without root and other organic inputs, submergence of these tidal forests is inevitable due to peat decomposition, physical compaction and eustatic sea-level rise. These findings have relevance for predicting the effects of sea-level rise and biophysical processes on tropical

  3. Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiem, Anthony S.; Clifton, Craig; Jordan, Phillip

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Recent climatic conditions (i.e. drier than average conditions for the last 10 years or more) have placed many water resource systems in south-eastern Australia near critical thresholds. Management systems are, or soon will be, at the limits of their adaptive capacity. While it is possible this situation largely reflects vulnerability to natural climatic variability, impacts of anthropogenic climate change may further expose the vulnerability of these systems. Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. In many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades, and is also being increasingly affected by anthropogenic influences. Both factors will continue to influence Australia's climate, even if immediate action is taken to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Long-term resource planning by water authorities must account for both climate variation and climate change to avoid over-allocation of water resources and to ensure economic activity based on utilisation of water resources is not unnecessarily restricted. Awareness of the vulnerability of water resources to anthropogenic climate change and uncertainty about the nature of those changes has lead to a reappraisal of which climate sequence(s) should be used in water resource planning

  4. Understanding the dynamic changes in India's peri-urban regions ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Peri-urban areas, which are beyond a city's administrative limits but adjacent to it, are ... where there are resource constraints, and where access to services such as water, ... The project is funded through the Opportunity Fund of the Think Tank ... IDRC congratulates first cohort of Women in Climate Change Science Fellows.

  5. Vasoactive Peptide Levels after Change of Dialysis Mode

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fredrik Uhlin

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Plasma concentrations of the N-terminal fragment of pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP are increased in end-stage renal disease. Improvement in hemodynamic stability has been reported when switching from hemodialysis (HD to on-line hemodiafiltration (ol-HDF. The aim of this study was to investigate plasma concentrations of NT-proBNP, BNP and neuropeptide Y (NPY during a 1-year follow-up, after a change from high-flux HD to postdilution ol-HDF. Additional variables were also studied, e.g. pulse wave velocity and ordinary clinical parameters. Method: We conducted a prospective, single-center study including 35 patients who were switched from HD to HDF. Plasma concentrations of NT-proBNP, BNP and NPY before and after dialysis were measured at baseline (i.e. HD and at 1, 2, 4, 6 and 12 months on HDF. Results: All three peptide levels decreased significantly during HD and HDF when comparing concentrations before and after dialysis. Mean absolute value (before/after and relative decrease (% before versus after dialysis was 13.697/9.497 ng/l (31% for NT-proBNP, 62/40 ng/ml (35% for BNP and 664/364 pg/l (45% for NPY. No significant differences were observed when comparing predialysis values over time. However, postdialysis NT-proBNP concentration showed a significant decrease of 48% over time after the switch to HDF. Conclusion: The postdialysis plasma levels of NT-proBNP, BNP and NPY decreased significantly during both dialysis modes when compared to before dialysis. The postdialysis lowering of NT-proBNP increased further over time after the switch to ol-HDF; the predialysis levels were unchanged, suggesting no effect on its production in the ventricles of the heart.

  6. Behavioural changes in mice exposed to low level microwave fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goiceanu, C.; Gradinaru, F.; Danulescu, R.; Balaceanu, G.; Sandu, D. D.; Avadanei, O. G.

    2001-01-01

    The aim of our study is to point out some changes in mice behaviour due possibly to exposure to low-level microwave fields. Animals spontaneous behaviour were monitored and the exploring behaviour and motor activity were assessed. Ten selected Swiss male mice were exposed to low-level microwave fields of about 1 mW/cm 2 power density for a relatively long period of time (13 weeks), comparing to their lifetime. The exposure system consists in a transverse electromagnetic (TEM) Cell. A control lot of ten Swiss male mice was used. All twenty mice were selected to be of same age and of 202 g initial body weight. Each animal was placed in his own holder. The behaviour of the animals, from both exposed and control lots, was assessed by using a battery of three behavioural tests. The test sessions were performed every two weeks. During exposure period it was recorded a progressive but moderate loss of motor activity for both exposed and controls, probably due to weight gain and aging. Concerning exploratory activity there is a significant difference between control and exposed animals. Control mice had approximately constant performances in time. On the other hand exposed mice showed a progressive decrease in time of their exploratory ability. Motor activity of exposed animals does not seem to be affected by microwave exposure, in spite of moderate loss in time of motor activity in both lots, as long as it was recorded a quite similar evolution. The difference in performances of exposed and controls concerning exploratory activity seem to emphasise an effect of long-term low-level microwave exposure. The progressive loss in time of exploratory activity of exposed mice, in contrast with controls, could be due to the interference of microwaves with central nervous activity. (authors)

  7. Population-level impact of Zimbabwe's National Behavioural Change Programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzdugan, Raluca; Benedikt, Clemens; Langhaug, Lisa; Copas, Andrew; Mundida, Oscar; Mugurungi, Owen; Watadzaushe, Constancia; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Tambashe, Basile O; Chidiya, Samson; Woelk, Godfrey; Cowan, Frances M

    2014-12-15

    To assess the impact of Zimbabwe's National Behavioural Change Programme (NBCP) on biological and behavioral outcomes. Representative household biobehavioral surveys of 18- to 44-year-olds were conducted in randomly selected enumeration areas in 2007 and 2011 to 2012. We examined program impact on HIV prevalence among young women, nonregular partnerships, condom use with nonregular partners, and HIV testing, distinguishing between highly exposed and low-exposed communities and individuals. We conducted (1) difference-in-differences analyses with communities as unit of analysis and (2) analyses of key outcomes by individual-level program exposure. Four thousand seven hundred seventy-six people were recruited in 2007 and 10,059 in 2011 to 2012. We found high exposure to NBCP in 2011. Prevalence of HIV and reported risky behaviors declined between 2007 and 2011. Community-level analyses showed a smaller decline in HIV prevalence among young women in highly exposed areas (11.0%-10.1%) than low-exposed areas (16.9%-10.3%, P = 0.078). Among young men, uptake of nonregular partners declined more in highly exposed areas (25%-16.8%) than low-exposed areas (21.9%-20.7%, P = 0.055) and HIV testing increased (27.2%-46.1% vs. 31.0%-34.4%, P = 0.004). Individual-level analyses showed higher reported condom use with nonregular partners among highly exposed young women (53% vs. 21% of unexposed counterparts, P = 0.037). We conducted the first impact evaluation of a NBCP and found positive effects of program exposure on key behaviors among certain gender and age groups. HIV prevalence among young women declined but could not be attributed to program exposure. These findings suggest substantial program effects regarding demand creation and justify program expansion.

  8. Detecting Damaged Building Regions Based on Semantic Scene Change from Multi-Temporal High-Resolution Remote Sensing Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihui Tu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The detection of damaged building regions is crucial to emergency response actions and rescue work after a disaster. Change detection methods using multi-temporal remote sensing images are widely used for this purpose. Differing from traditional methods based on change detection for damaged building regions, semantic scene change can provide a new point of view since it can indicate the land-use variation at the semantic level. In this paper, a novel method is proposed for detecting damaged building regions based on semantic scene change in a visual Bag-of-Words model. Pre- and post-disaster scene change in building regions are represented by a uniform visual codebook frequency. The scene change of damaged and non-damaged building regions is discriminated using the Support Vector Machine (SVM classifier. An evaluation of experimental results, for a selected study site of the Longtou hill town of Yunnan, China, which was heavily damaged in the Ludian earthquake of 14 March 2013, shows that this method is feasible and effective for detecting damaged building regions. For the experiments, WorldView-2 optical imagery and aerial imagery is used.

  9. Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels: constraints or adaptations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Both, Christiaan; van Asch, Margriet; Bijlsma, Rob G; van den Burg, Arnold B; Visser, Marcel E

    2009-01-01

    1. Climate change has been shown to affect the phenology of many organisms, but interestingly these shifts are often unequal across trophic levels, causing a mismatch between the phenology of organisms and their food. 2. We consider two alternative hypotheses: consumers are constrained to adjust sufficiently to the lower trophic level, or prey species react more strongly than their predators to reduce predation. We discuss both hypotheses with our analyses of changes in phenology across four trophic levels: tree budburst, peak biomass of herbivorous caterpillars, breeding phenology of four insectivorous bird species and an avian predator. 3. In our long-term study, we show that between 1988 and 2005, budburst advanced (not significantly) with 0.17 d yr(-1), while between 1985 and 2005 both caterpillars (0.75 d year(-1)) and the hatching date of the passerine species (range for four species: 0.36-0.50 d year(-1)) have advanced, whereas raptor hatching dates showed no trend. 4. The caterpillar peak date was closely correlated with budburst date, as were the passerine hatching dates with the peak caterpillar biomass date. In all these cases, however, the slopes were significantly less than unity, showing that the response of the consumers is weaker than that of their food. This was also true for the avian predator, for which hatching dates were not correlated with the peak availability of fledgling passerines. As a result, the match between food demand and availability deteriorated over time for both the passerines and the avian predators. 5. These results could equally well be explained by consumers' insufficient responses as a consequence of constraints in adapting to climate change, or by them trying to escape predation from a higher trophic level, or both. Selection on phenology could thus be both from matches of phenology with higher and lower levels, and quantifying these can shed new light on why some organisms do adjust their phenology to climate change, while

  10. Climate change impact on the river runoff: regional study for the Central Asian Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agaitseva, Natalya

    2004-01-01

    The water resources of the Aral Sea Basin are jointly used by the Central Asian states. The river flow is concentrated in the two largest transboundary rivers: the Amudarya and Syrdarya Rivers, which run down from the mountains to the plains, cross the deserts and flow into the Aral Sea. Uzbekistan is the major water consumer in the Aral Sea Basin. In accordance with interstate agreements, on average 43-52 km 2 of water per year as allotted for use by Uzbekistan from the boundary rivers. About 90% of river flow is formed beyond Uzbekistan boundaries. Under current conditions, water resource shortages in Uzbekistan, even a small but stable reduction of these resources presents a drastic problem. The degree of impact of possible climate changes on the regime of mountain rivers of the Central Asia can be evaluated by sufficiently reliable mathematical models of the runoff formation in mountains. The basic mathematical model describes a complete cycle of the runoff formation, reflecting the main factors and processes: precipitation, dynamics of a snow cover, evaporation, contribution of melting and rain water to the catchment, glacial runoff, runoff transformation and losses in basin. The model complex consists of the model Of snow cover formation in the mountains basin, model of glacial runoff and model of snow melt and rainfall water inflow transformation in runoff. Model calculations of snow reserves in the mountains under different climatic scenarios have demonstrated their gradual decrease due to growing aridity of the climate. Contribution of the snow is expected to decrease by 15-30%1 especially for rivers, which are snow-fed. At present, the annual glacial runoff of the rivers of the Syrdarya River basin amounts to 8-15%. Under different prognoses,,, increase in this flow of up to 20% is expected. Contribution of glacial runoff to the rivers of the Amudarya River basin might grow 32-39% under the most 'severe' climatic scenarios. During the cropping season, an

  11. Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Childers, Katelin

    2015-04-01

    An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have

  12. Changes in the Global Hydrological Cycle: Lessons from Modeling Lake Levels at the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, D. P.; Morrill, C.

    2011-12-01

    Geologic evidence shows that lake levels in currently arid regions were higher and lakes in currently wet regions were lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Current hypotheses used to explain these lake level changes include the thermodynamic hypothesis, in which decreased tropospheric water vapor coupled with patterns of convergence and divergence caused dry areas to become more wet and vice versa, the dynamic hypothesis, in which shifts in the jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered precipitation patterns, and the evaporation hypothesis, in which lake expansions are attributed to reduced evaporation in a colder climate. This modeling study uses the output of four climate models participating in phase 2 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2) as input into a lake energy-balance model, in order to test the accuracy of the models and understand the causes of lake level changes. We model five lakes which include the Great Basin lakes, USA; Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala; Lake Caçó, northern Brazil; Lake Tauca (Titicaca), Bolivia and Peru; and Lake Cari-Laufquen, Argentina. These lakes create a transect through the drylands of North America through the tropics and to the drylands of South America. The models accurately recreate LGM conditions in 14 out of 20 simulations, with the Great Basin lakes being the most robust and Lake Caçó being the least robust, due to model biases in portraying the ITCZ over South America. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget from one of the climate models shows that thermodynamic processes contribute most significantly to precipitation changes over the Great Basin, while dynamic processes are most significant for the other lakes. Lake Cari-Laufquen shows a lake expansion that is most likely attributed to reduced evaporation rather than changes in regional precipitation, suggesting that lake levels alone may not be the best indicator of how much precipitation this region

  13. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 2001 Regional Land Cover Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  14. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 2016 Regional Land Cover Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  15. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 2006 Regional Land Cover Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  16. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1985 Regional Land Cover Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  17. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1996 Regional Land Cover Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  18. NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) 1992 Regional Land Cover Data - Coastal United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) produces national standardized land cover and change products for the coastal regions of the U.S. C-CAP products...

  19. IMMEDIATE RECIPROCAL CHANGES AT ADJACENT LEVEL FOLLOWING SINGLE-LEVEL ALIF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Vargas Uribe

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective : To assess the segmental sagittal parameters and the adjacent mobile segment after interbody fusion by anterior approach in single-level L5-S1. Methods : Retrospective study. Inclusion: Interbody fusion by anterior approach (10°/15° angle, due to DDD, low-grade spondylolisthesis and/or stenosis without prior lumbar fusion. Thirty-five cases were included (25 women; mean age 47±15 years. Analysis of lumbar radiographs were performed preoperatively and 3 months after surgery. The following parameters were evaluated: lumbar lordosis; segmental lordosis L4-L5 and L5-S1; sacral and L5 slope. Two independent evaluators made the measurements. Student's t test was used. Results : There was correction of lordosis at the L5-S1 level, from an average of 19° prior to surgery to 28° three months after surgery (p<0.001. It was observed reduction of the L4-L5 angle from 17° to 14° (p <0.001. Moreover, there was a small, but statistically significant, reduction of L5 inclination from 17 ° to 13 ° (p=0.007 and increase in the sacral slope from 37° to 40° (p=0.002. The change of total lumbar lordosis was not significant: 52° versus 53° (p=0.461. Before surgical correction, lordosis of the L5-S1 level contributed, on average, 37% of lumbar lordosis, and after, 54% (p<0.001. The L4-L5 level accounted for 34% and decreased to 24% (p<0.001. Conclusion : In the group studied, it was observed a decrease in lordosis of the adjacent mobile level following the treatment of the degenerate level by anterior interbody fusion and concomitant increase in lordosis.

  20. Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Steen

    Full Text Available The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs. We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%. However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper to -100% (Wilson's Snipe. Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

  1. Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

    2017-12-01

    Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630-3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

  2. Classification as a generic tool for characterising status and changes of regional scale groundwater systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthel, Roland; Haaf, Ezra

    2016-04-01

    Regional hydrogeology is becoming increasingly important, but at the same time, scientifically sound, universal solutions for typical groundwater problems encountered on the regional scale are hard to find. While managers, decision-makers and state agencies operating on regional and national levels have always shown a strong interest in regional scale hydrogeology, researchers from academia tend to avoid the subject, focusing instead on local scales. Additionally, hydrogeology has always had a tendency to regard every problem as unique to its own site- and problem-specific context. Regional scale hydrogeology is therefore pragmatic rather than aiming at developing generic methodology (Barthel, 2014; Barthel and Banzhaf, 2016). One of the main challenges encountered on the regional scale in hydrogeology is the extreme heterogeneity that generally increases with the size of the studied area - paired with relative data scarcity. Even in well-monitored regions of the world, groundwater observations are usually clustered, leaving large areas without any direct data. However, there are many good reasons for assessing the status and predicting the behavior of groundwater systems under conditions of global change even for those areas and aquifers without observations. This is typically done by using rather coarsely discretized and / or poorly parameterized numerical models, or by using very simplistic conceptual hydrological models that do not take into account the complex three-dimensional geological setup. Numerical models heavily rely on local data and are resource-demanding. Conceptual hydrological models only deliver reliable information on groundwater if the geology is extremely simple. In this contribution, we present an approach to derive statistically relevant information for un-monitored areas, making use of existing information from similar localities that are or have been monitored. The approach combines site-specific knowledge with conceptual assumptions on

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, and end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to

  4. Impact of climate change on food security in southwest coastal region of bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Islam, S.; Rahman, A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of climate change on food security of the population residing in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Based on multistage random sampling technique, a survey was conducted to collect socioeconomic and food datasets of the people affected by extreme climate events in the country. The study found that climate change caused food insecurity in the region; it led to greater dependence on pond and rain water for cooking food and water intake. Catastrophe due to extreme weather events adversely affected the livelihoods and level of income. The severe cyclonic storms, Sidr (November 2007) and Alia (May 2009) severely affected the vulnerable people of this region, especially the extremely poor. The study came out with several coping strategies to address adverse effects of climate change, including rehabilitation with income and employment generating activities and development training; alternative livelihood adaptation practices; access to subsidized inputs and credits; introduction of crop calendar; conservation of arable and fellow land; and innovation of saline-tolerant, heat-resistant, moderate water consuming and short-rotation crops for the coastal people. (author)

  5. Surface Water Connectivity, Flow Pathways and Water Level Fluctuation in a Cold Region Deltaic Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, D. L.; Niemann, O.; Skelly, R.; Monk, W. A.; Baird, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) is a 6000 km2 deltaic floodplain ecosystem of international importance (Wood Buffalo National Park, Ramsar Convention, UNESCO World Heritage, and SWOT satellite water level calibration/validation site). The low-relief floodplain formed at the confluence of the Peace, Athabasca and Birch rivers with Lake Athabasca. More than 1000 wetland and lake basins have varying degrees of connectivity to the main flow system. Hydroperiod and water storage is influenced by ice-jam and open-water inundations and prevailing semi-arid climate that control water drawdown. Prior studies have identified pathways of river-to-wetland floodwater connection and historical water level fluctuation/trends as a key knowledge gaps, limiting our knowledge of deltaic ecosystem status and potential hydroecological responses to climate change and upstream water alterations to flow contributions. To address this knowledge gap, surface elevation mapping of the PAD has been conducted since 2012 using aerial remote sensing Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), plus thousands of ground based surface and bathymetric survey points tied to Global Positioning System (GPS) were obtained. The elevation information was used to develop a high resolution digital terrain model to simulate and investigate surface water connectivity. Importantly, the surveyed areas contain a set of wetland monitoring sites where ground-based surface water connectivity, water level/depth, water quality, and aquatic ecology (eg, vegetation, macroinvertebrate and muskrat) have been examined. The goal of this presentation is to present an assessment of: i) surface water fluctuation and connectivity for PAD wetland sites; ii) 40+ year inter-annual hydroperiod reconstruction for a perched basin using a combination of field measurements, remote sensing estimates, and historical documents; and iii) outline an approach to integrate newly available hydro-bio-geophysical information into a novel, multi

  6. [Rocky Mountain regional low-level waste compact development and establishment of disposals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    This Compact Issue Study was intended to determine if state institutions in the Rocky Mountain region could reduce low-level radioactive waste shipping and disposal costs through jointly shipping their low-level radioactive wastes. Public institutions in the state of Colorado were used as a test case for this study

  7. A University-Level Curriculum in Climate Change for SE Asia and the Asian Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furniss, M. J.; Saah, D. S.; Hines, S. J.; Radel, C. A.; McGroddy, M. E.; Ganz, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    A university-level curriculum has been developed for the SE Asia and Asia Pacific region and is currently being implemented by 12+ universities; in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea. The curriculum is supported by USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development) through the LEAF program (Lowering Emissions in Asian Forests), under the technical leadership of the U.S. Forest Service. Four modules have been developed: Basic Climate Change, Low-Emissions Land Use Planning, Social and Environmental Soundness, and Carbon Measurement and Monitoring. This presentation will focus on the Basic Climate Change module. This is a survey course that covers a wide range of climate change topics, including causes, effects, and responses. The level of detail in each of the covered topics is calibrated to current issues in the region. The module is elaborated in English and will be translated into the national language of the participating countries. The module is designed to be flexible and can be tailored to both degree and non-degree programs; as well as for trainings for natural resources professionals and policy-makers. Important training topics can be selected as short course trainings for practitioners and leaders working on climate change.

  8. Prediction of monthly regional groundwater levels through hybrid soft-computing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Huang, Chien-Wei; Kao, I.-Feng

    2016-10-01

    Groundwater systems are intrinsically heterogeneous with dynamic temporal-spatial patterns, which cause great difficulty in quantifying their complex processes, while reliable predictions of regional groundwater levels are commonly needed for managing water resources to ensure proper service of water demands within a region. In this study, we proposed a novel and flexible soft-computing technique that could effectively extract the complex high-dimensional input-output patterns of basin-wide groundwater-aquifer systems in an adaptive manner. The soft-computing models combined the Self Organized Map (SOM) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) network for predicting monthly regional groundwater levels based on hydrologic forcing data. The SOM could effectively classify the temporal-spatial patterns of regional groundwater levels, the NARX could accurately predict the mean of regional groundwater levels for adjusting the selected SOM, the Kriging was used to interpolate the predictions of the adjusted SOM into finer grids of locations, and consequently the prediction of a monthly regional groundwater level map could be obtained. The Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan was the study case, and its monthly data sets collected from 203 groundwater stations, 32 rainfall stations and 6 flow stations during 2000 and 2013 were used for modelling purpose. The results demonstrated that the hybrid SOM-NARX model could reliably and suitably predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels with high correlations (R2 > 0.9 in both training and testing cases). The proposed methodology presents a milestone in modelling regional environmental issues and offers an insightful and promising way to predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels, which is beneficial to authorities for sustainable water resources management.

  9. The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

    2017-11-01

    Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O 3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O 3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O 3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O 3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O 3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O 3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 -related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters affecting groundwater storage change caused by sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.

    2012-04-01

    Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea

  11. Postglacial relative sea level change at Fildes Peninsula, King George Island (West Antarctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. V. Polishchuk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis and integration of data obtained in our field and laboratory investigations of 2008–2012 together with results of previous paleogeographic studies were conducted to reveal parameters and factors of the post-glacial changes in the relative sea-level on the Fildes Peninsula and the King George Island. Results of dating of organic material taken from cross-sections of Quaternary deposits, data on morphology of marine landforms as well as on bottom sediments in lakes were used to construct a curve of changes in the relative sea-level.Our research has shown that the rapid rise of relative sea level in the area (since the beginning of the Holocene decelerated about 8000 years BP, achieving its maximum about 7000 years BP. This was followed by the fall of relative sea-level (the land elevation by 18–20  m in total, and it was characterized by relatively high rate of fall during periods of 6000– 5000 years BP, 4000–2500 years BP, and during the last 1500 years; the rate decreased in 5000–4000 years BP and 2500– 1600 years BP. The changes in relative sea level in this region were determined by the following factors: the eustatic component of the global changes in sea-level and, possibly, oscillations in the global sea level of another nature; local parameters of the Last glacial maximum; a course of the Peninsula deglaciation; regional physical characteristics of the Earth's crust and the mantle substances; local tectonic processes, including the isostatic rebound. Since the beginning of the Holocene up to about 7000 years BP, the main contribution to changes of the relative sea-level in this area was made by the global eustatic factor. The subsequent fall of the relative sea-level (elevation of the Peninsula surface proceeded under condition of reduced role of the eustatic factor and predominance of other factors.

  12. Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

    2018-04-01

    Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

  13. Directions of improvement for public administration institutional structure in field of ecology at regional level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. I. Matyushenko

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on the analysis of the organizational structure of public authorities at national and regional level involved in the process of governance in the environmental field as well as their legal security it was found that at the regional level, in regions there are different units (departments, management authorities, divisions, sectors that coordinate the process of public administration in the environmental field. In order to offer its own structure unit of state administration, to deal with environmental issues it is analyzed the organizational structures of central executive authority in the field of ecology - the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Ukraine at the national level and the organizational structures of departments / offices of Ecology and Natural Resources regional administrations respectively, at the regional level. As it is determined there is no typical structure of the regional state administration unit in Ukraine. Recognized that departments and sectors uniting at the high level is chaotic, unsystematic and apparently dictated by different reasons (financial, personal and psychological, corruption etc., not the content of (the logic of and structural accountability to senior management level. It is offered the author organizational structure for the Ecology and Natural Resources Department of Regional State Administration. It is suggested that this Department consists of three units: Department of Ecology (Department of environmental monitoring and audit department of environmental security department of planning and coordination of international projects in the environmental field; Department of Natural Resources (Department of Conservation of Natural Resources, Department of Protected Areas and Ecological Network Development, Department of Environmental Economics; Management support of the Department (Legal, Financial and Economic Division, Department of Administration Department, a department of scientific and

  14. Extending the Instrumental Record of Sea-Level Change: A 1300-Year Sea-Level Record From Eastern Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Cleary, P.

    2002-12-01

    The instrumental record of sea-level change in the northeastern United States extends back to the early 20th century and at New York City (NYC) extends back to 1856. These tide gauge records indicate that sea level has risen at a rate of 2.5 to 4 mm/year over the last 100-150 years. Geologic evidence of sea-level change in the region over the last 2,000 years indicates rates of sea-level rise of about 1 mm/year or less. The discordance between the instrumental and geologic records is frequently cited as potentially providing evidence that anthropogenic warming of the climate system has resulted in an increase in the rate of sea-level rise. In order to begin to test the hypothesis that acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise has occurred in the last 150 years due to anthropogenic climate warming, accurate and precise information on the timing of the apparent acceleration in sea-level rise are needed. Here we construct a high-resolution relative sea-level record for the past 1350 years by dating basal salt marsh peat samples above a glacial erratic in a western Connecticut salt marsh. Preservation of marsh vegetation remains in the sediment record that has a narrow vertical habitat range at the upper end of the tidal range provides information on past sea levels. { \\it Spartina patens} (marsh hay) and { \\it Juncus gerardi} (black rush) dominate both the modern marsh and their remains are the major constituent of the marsh sediments and occur in the modern marsh between mean high water (MHW) and mean highest high water. We use the elevation distribution of modern plant communities to estimate the relationship of sediment samples to paleo-mean high water. The chronology is based on 15 radiocarbon ages, supplemented by age estimates derived from the horizons of industrial Pb pollution and pollen indicative of European land clearance. Thirteen of the radiocarbon ages and the Pb and pollen data come from samples taken along a contact between marsh peat and a glacial

  15. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

    2002-12-01

    There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

  16. Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Lauria

    Full Text Available Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect 'bottom-up' climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986-2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO, the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66 ± 0.02 °C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = -0.305 ± 0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = -0.410 ± 0.193. Seabird demographics showed complex species-specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314 ± 0.014 as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = -0.144 ± 0.05. Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea, emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.

  17. Influence of Climate Change and Trophic Coupling across Four Trophic Levels in the Celtic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauria, Valentina; Attrill, Martin J.; Pinnegar, John K.; Brown, Andrew; Edwards, Martin; Votier, Stephen C.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect ‘bottom-up’ climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986–2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66±0.02°C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = −0.305±0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = −0.410±0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species–specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314±0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = −0.144±0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales. PMID:23091621

  18. Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: global mean sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Meyssignac, B.; Agosta, C.; Champollion, N.; Church, J.A.; Fettweis, X.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Marzeion, B.; Melet, A.; Palmer, M.D.; Richter, K.; Roberts, C.D.; Spada, G.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project

  19. Historical bathymetry and bathymetric change in the Mississippi-Alabama coastal region, 1847-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buster, Noreen A.; Morton, Robert A.

    2011-01-01

    Land loss and seafloor change around the Mississippi and Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands are of great concern to the public and to local, state, and federal agencies. The islands provide wildlife protected areas and recreational land, and they serve as a natural first line of defense for the mainland against storm activity (index map on poster). Principal physical conditions that drive morphological seafloor and coastal change in this area include decreased sediment supply, sea-level rise, storms, and human activities (Otvos, 1970; Byrnes and others, 1991; Morton and others, 2004; Morton, 2008). Seafloor responses to the same processes can also affect the entire coastal zone. Sediment eroded from the barrier islands is entrained in the littoral system, where it is redistributed by alongshore currents. Wave and current activity is partially controlled by the profile of the seafloor, and this interdependency along with natural and anthropogenic influences has significant effects on nearshore environments. When a coastal system is altered by human activity such as dredging, as is the case of the MS-AL coastal region, the natural state and processes are altered, and alongshore sediment transport can be disrupted. As a result of deeply dredged channels, adjacent island migration is blocked, nearshore environments downdrift in the littoral system become sediment starved, and sedimentation around the channels is modified. Sediment deposition and erosion are reflected through seafloor evolution. In a rapidly changing coastal environment, understanding historically where and why changes are occurring is essential. To better assess the comprehensive dynamics of the MS-AL coastal zone, a 160-year evaluation of the bathymetry and bathymetric change of the region was conducted.

  20. Agents of Structural Change : The Role of Firms and Entrepreneurs in Regional Diversification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neffke, Frank; Hartog, Matté; Boschma, Ron; Henning, Martin

    2018-01-01

    Who introduces structural change in regional economies: Entrepreneurs or existing firms? And do local or nonlocal establishment founders create most novelty in a region? We develop a theoretical framework that focuses on the roles different agents play in regional transformation. We then apply this

  1. Climate change and fire management in the mid-Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth L. Clark; Nicholas Skowronski; Heidi Renninger; Robert. Scheller

    2014-01-01

    In this review, we summarize the potential impacts of climate change on wildfire activity in the mid-Atlantic region, and then consider how the beneficial uses of prescribed fire could conflict with mitigation needs for climate change, focusing on patters of carbon (C) sequestration by forests in the region. We use a synthesis of field studies, eddy flux tower...

  2. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  3. An Agent-Based Reasoning of Impacts of Regional Climate Changes on Land Use Changes in the Three-River Headwaters Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The land surface in Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR, a typical ecological fragile zone of China, is quite sensitive to the climate changes which will destabilize certain ecosystem services valuable to the entire nation and neighboring countries. This study aimed to analyze the impacts of climate changes and agents’ adaptive behaviors on the regional land use changes with the agent based model (ABM. First, the main agents were extracted according to the production resources endowments and socioeconomic background. Then the agents’ land use behaviors were analyzed and parameterized. Thereafter, the ABM model was built to simulate the impacts of the climate changes on the regional land use changes and agents’ economic benefits. The results showed that the land use changes were mainly characterized by the increase of grassland and decrease of unused land area. Besides, the agents would get more wealth under the scenario without climate changes in the long term, even though the total income is lower than that under the scenario with climate changes. In addition, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to the climatic conditions, market price of agricultural and animal husbandry products, government subsidies, and cost control.

  4. Regional adaptation strategies to climate change: Guidelines for urban planning in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maruna Marija

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The problems of climate change significantly alter the character of urban planning. While changes in the planning process are aimed at mechanisms for urgent action in the transformed circumstances in the sense of a deeper understanding of the causes of phenomena and prediction of future changes, modification of specific measures suppose to be related to the regulatory framework for new and existing construction that will lead to reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and the development of resistance to settlements' extreme impacts. The focus has shifted to land-use planning and the development and application of building regulations. It is considered that planning at the local level is an appropriate instrument for solving the problem of climate impacts in the community. In general, urban planning is an instrument of implementation of national strategies for mitigation and adaptation at the local level. Successful implementation of the strategy is based on a developed vertical and horizontal institutional and procedural coordination. In the circumstances of specific context of post-socialist urban restructuring, which is characterized by a lack of developed institutions and appropriate procedures, it is difficult to expect the entire application of prescribed procedures and harmonization of vertical and horizontal spatial development policies. Accordingly, it is recommended that policies be aimed at short-term improvements that are based on existing climate risk management and short-term projections of climate impacts. Among the main recommendations of the regional climate change adaptation strategies related to policy-makers in the field of urban development is to establish new and efficient use of existing legislation in the field of environment and planning. It is believed that most countries in the region have adequate legislation and efforts should be directed towards more effective implementation of existing planning and building

  5. Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

    2011-12-01

    Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little

  6. Global Climate Change Consequences Changing the Middle Sea Level in the Brazilian Coast: Impacts on Ceará State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacerda, E. G.; Pires, L. B. M.; Pinto, V. K. E.

    2015-12-01

    Since the Industrial Revolution, man started to generate increasing amounts of waste and pollutants, which on a large scale in the long term is causing a series of climate change consequences, both globally as well as locally. One of the many effects of these changes has been reflected in the ocean levels, depending on various factors. Thus, the population living in coastal areas suffers from the negative effects of the advancement of ocean waters. The coast of northeastern Brazil is an example of this, especially the state of Ceará coast. The state of Ceará has 573 km of coastline, a region that has suffered extensive erosion, in which the Middle Sea Level (MSL) changes exert a significant influence. The coastal plain is a strip of land of small extent, with an average width of 2.5 km, formed depending on the availability of high sediment stocks provided through the action of wind, marine, or river processes, individually in combination with each other. In many beaches it is observed that the strip of beach is narrow due to the presence of topographic elevations carved into sharp cliffs. Between periods of high tide and low tide, often rocky beach features are observed that have recently formed. The waves control the stretches of beach which are mostly sandy. This paper presents a survey about the evidence already apparent on the rise in the MSL and correlates it with the advance of the sea on the coast of Ceará, as well as assesses the possible consequences of this process. Therefore, a literature search was conducted in relevant scientific publications. The data used are from the station "Global Sea Level Observing System - GLOSS" which maintains a tide gauge installed in Ceará in Fortaleza. The analyses show that the phenomenon has caused a lot of inconvenience to the people, streets have disappeared, as well as several buildings located along the coast. The sea advances destroyed beaches and have promoted an accelerated level of erosion, changing the

  7. Regional Analysis of the Hazard Level of Glacial Lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisolm, Rachel E.; Jhon Sanchez Leon, Walter; McKinney, Daene C.; Cochachin Rapre, Alejo

    2016-04-01

    The Cordillera Blanca mountain range is the highest in Peru and contains many of the world's tropical glaciers. This region is severely impacted by climate change causing accelerated glacier retreat. Secondary impacts of climate change on glacier retreat include stress on water resources and the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from the many lakes that are forming and growing at the base of glaciers. A number of GLOFs originating from lakes in the Cordillera Blanca have occurred over the last century, several of which have had catastrophic impacts on cities and communities downstream. Glaciologists and engineers in Peru have been studying the lakes of the Cordillera Blanca for many years and have identified several lakes that are considered dangerous. However, a systematic analysis of all the lakes in the Cordillera Blanca has never before been attempted. Some methodologies for this type of systematic analysis have been proposed (eg. Emmer and Vilimek 2014; Wang, et al. 2011), but as yet they have only been applied to a few select lakes in the Cordillera Blanca. This study uses remotely sensed data to study all of the lakes of the Glacial Lake Inventory published by the Glaciology and Water Resources Unit of Peru's National Water Authority (UGRH 2011). The objective of this study is to assign a level of potential hazard to each glacial lake in the Cordillera Blanca and to ascertain if any of the lakes beyond those that have already been studied might pose a danger to nearby populations. A number of parameters of analysis, both quantitative and qualitative, have been selected to assess the hazard level of each glacial lake in the Cordillera Blanca using digital elevation models, satellite imagery, and glacier outlines. These parameters are then combined to come up with a preliminary assessment of the hazard level of each lake; the equation weighting each parameter draws on previously published methodologies but is tailored to the regional characteristics

  8. Regional contamination versus regional dietary differences: Understanding geographic variation in brominated and chlorinated contaminant levels in polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, M.A.; Letcher, R.J.; Aars, Jon; Born, E.W.; Branigan, M.; Dietz, R.; Evans, T.J.; Gabrielsen, G.W.; Muir, D.C.G.; Peacock, E.; Sonne, C.

    2011-01-01

    The relative contribution of regional contamination versus dietary differences to geographic variation in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) contaminant levels is unknown. Dietary variation between Alaska Canada, East Greenland, and Svalbard subpopulations was assessed by muscle nitrogen and carbon stable isotope (?? 15N, ?? 13C) and adipose fatty acid (FA) signatures relative to their main prey (ringed seals). Western and southern Hudson Bay signatures were characterized by depleted ?? 15N and ??13C, lower proportions of C20 and C22 monounsaturated FAs and higher proportions of C18 and longer chain polyunsaturated FAs. East Greenland and Svalbard signatures were reversed relative to Hudson Bay. Alaskan ?? 2011 American Chemical Society.

  9. Model for analyzing demand for low-level waste transport containers - regionalized and non-regionalized scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, A.J.; Rose, K.

    1982-01-01

    Certain types of low-level radioactive waste (LLW) must be shipped in expensive special containers. It is therefore desirable to keep container utilization high. There must be a stock of containers sufficient to ship waste in a timely fashion, but one does not want to have containers sitting idle a significant fraction of the time. A computerized discrete event network model has been developed and is described in this report. The model allows an analyst to determine the effects of varying the increase in LLW, establishment of regional disposal, etc. on requirements for shipping containers

  10. Effect of Technology Driven Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Hydroclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arritt, R. W.; Sines, T. R.; Groisman, P. Y.; Gelder, B. K.

    2017-12-01

    During the mid-20th century motorized equipment replaced work animals in the central U.S. This led to a 95% decrease in farmland for producing oats, which had mostly been used as feed for horses. Much of this land was converted to more profitable crops such as soybeans and maize. The same period also saw a strong shift of the central U.S. precipitation intensity spectrum toward heavier events. Was this a coincidence, or is there a causal relationship? We investigate possible connections between this technology-driven land use change and regional hydroclimate by performing multi-decadal simulations over the central U.S. using the WRF-ARW regional climate model coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM 4.5). Cropland planted in maize, soybean, winter wheat, small grains (which includes oats and spring wheat), and other C3 and C4 crops were reconstructed on a decade by decade basis from 1940-2010 using county-level crop data. These crop distributions were used as land surface boundary conditions for two multi-decadal regional climate simulations, one with 1940s land use and another with modern (circa 2010) land use. Modern land use produced a shift in the simulated daily precipitation intensity spectrum toward heavy events, with higher frequencies of heavy precipitation amounts and lower frequencies of light amounts compared to 1940s land use. The results suggest that replacement of work animals by mechanized transport led to land use changes that produced about 10-30% of the observed trend toward more intense precipitation over the central United States. We therefore recommend that policy- and technology-driven changes in crop type be taken into account when projecting future climate and water resources.

  11. Local cytokine changes in complex regional pain syndrome type I (CRPS I) resolve after 6 months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenz, Melanie; Uçeyler, Nurcan; Frettlöh, Jule; Höffken, Oliver; Krumova, Elena K; Lissek, Silke; Reinersmann, Annika; Sommer, Claudia; Stude, Philipp; Waaga-Gasser, Ana M; Tegenthoff, Martin; Maier, Christoph

    2013-10-01

    There is evidence that inflammatory processes are involved in at least the early phase of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS). We compared a panel of pro- and antiinflammatory cytokines in skin blister fluids and serum from patients with CRPS and patients with upper-limb pain of other origin (non-CRPS) in the early stage (CRPS patients compared to non-CRPS patients. Neither group showed side differences. After 6 months under analgesic treatment, protein levels of all measured cytokines in CRPS patients, except for IL-6, significantly changed bilaterally to the level of non-CRPS patients. These changes were not related to treatment outcome. In serum, only IL-8, TNF-α, eotaxin, MCP-1, and MIP-1β were detectable without intergroup differences. Blister fluid of CRPS patients showed a bilateral proinflammatory cytokine profile. This profile seems to be relevant only at the early stage of CRPS. Almost all measured cytokine levels were comparable to those of non-CRPS patients after 6 months of analgesic treatment and were not related to treatment outcome. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. The quest for reliable regional scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gates, W.L.

    1991-01-01

    A number of problems still confront climate modelers if the challenge of providing information that can be used for local impact estimation is to be met. First, the models must be improved. Models continue to show large systematic errors, and the structure and behavior of these errors are not well understood. This suggests the need for more analysis, diagnosis, and intercomparison of model results, in order to understand the reasons for the differences among models and their sensitivity to both parameterization and resolution. It is to be hoped that the resources necessary to do this on a sustained and coordinated basis will be made available. It should also be recognized that modeled climate changes will inevitably be in terms of frequency distributions rather than categorical results. Ideally, these distributions should be constructed from the statistics of an ensemble of model runs, rather than by guessing or by uncertain analogs. Such information would permit the determination of the risk or uncertainty of the derived climate impact estimates and would place climate model applications on a firmer scientific basis

  13. Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in the Carpathian region based on an ENSEMBLE of regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, Ladislav; Beranová, Romana; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014 http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2014/943487/

  14. Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Whetton, Peter H.; Jones, Richard G.

    2001-01-01

    We analyse temperature and precipitation changes for the late decades of the 21st century (with respect to present day conditions) over 23 land regions of the world from 18 recent transient, climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The analysis...... involves two different forcing scenarios and nine models, and it focuses on model agreement in the simulated regional changes for the summer and winter seasons. While to date very few conclusions have been presented on regional climatic changes, mostly limited to some broad latitudinal bands, our analysis...

  15. Regional specific groundwater arsenic levels and neuropsychological functioning: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Melissa; Johnson, Leigh; Mauer, Cortney; Barber, Robert; Hall, James; O'Bryant, Sid

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine the link between geographic information system (GIS)-estimated regional specific groundwater levels and neuropsychological functioning in a sample of individuals with and without cognitive impairment. This cross-sectional study design analyzed data from 1390 participants (733 Alzheimer's disease, 127 Mild Cognitive Impairment, and 530 with normal cognition) enrolled in the Texas Alzheimer's Research and Care Consortium. GISs analyses were used to estimate regional specific groundwater arsenic concentrations using the Environmental Systems Research Institute and arsenic concentrations from the Texas Water Development Board. In the full cohort, regional specific arsenic concentrations were positively associated with language abilities (p = 0.008), but associated with poorer verbal memory, immediate (p = 0.008), and delayed (p arsenic being related with cognition most prominently among mild cognitive impairment cases. Overall, estimated regional specific groundwater arsenic levels were negatively associated with neuropsychological performance.

  16. Rapid changes in the level of Kluane Lake in Yukon Territory over the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clague, John J.; Luckman, Brian H.; Van Dorp, Richard D.; Gilbert, Robert; Froese, Duane; Jensen, Britta J. L.; Reyes, Alberto V.

    2006-09-01

    The level of Kluane Lake, the largest lake in Yukon Territory, was lower than at present during most of the Holocene. The lake rose rapidly in the late seventeenth century to a level 12 m above present, drowning forest and stranding driftwood on a conspicuous high-stand beach, remnants of which are preserved at the south end of the lake. Kluane Lake fell back to near its present level by the end of the eighteenth century and has fluctuated within a range of about 3 m over the last 50 yr. The primary control on historic fluctuations in lake level is the discharge of Slims River, the largest source of water to the lake. We use tree ring and radiocarbon ages, stratigraphy and sub-bottom acoustic data to evaluate two explanations for the dramatic changes in the level of Kluane Lake. Our data support the hypothesis of Hugh Bostock, who suggested in 1969 that the maximum Little Ice Age advance of Kaskawulsh Glacier deposited large amounts of sediment in the Slims River valley and established the present course of Slims River into Kluane Lake. Bostock argued that these events caused the lake to rise and eventually overflow to the north. The overflowing waters incised the Duke River fan at the north end of Kluane Lake and lowered the lake to its present level. This study highlights the potentially dramatic impacts of climate change on regional hydrology during the Little Ice Age in glacierised mountains.

  17. Level of Identification as a Predictor of Attitude Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Robert H.; Williams, Sharon Ann

    1987-01-01

    Discussion of conditions under which simulation games promote changes in attitudes focuses on identification theory as a predictor of attitude change. Incentive theory and cognitive dissonance theory are discussed, and a study of community college students is described that tested the role of identification in changing attitudes. (LRW)

  18. Adapting regional watershed management to climate change in Bavaria and Québec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf; Muerth, Markus; Schmid, Josef; Jobst, Andreas; Caya, Daniel; Gauvin St-Denis, Blaise; Chaumont, Diane; Velazquez, Juan-Alberto; Turcotte, Richard; Ricard, Simon

    2013-04-01

    The international research project QBic3 (Quebec-Bavarian Collaboration on Climate Change) aims at investigating the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of regional scale catchments in Southern Quebec (Canada) and Bavaria (Germany). For this purpose, a hydro-meteorological modeling chain has been established, applying climatic forcing from both dynamical and statistical climate model data to an ensemble of hydrological models of varying complexity. The selection of input data, process descriptions and scenarios allows for the inter-comparison of the uncertainty ranges on selected runoff indicators; a methodology to display the relative importance of each source of uncertainty is developed and results for past runoff (1971-2000) and potential future changes (2041-2070) are obtained. Finally, the impact of hydrological changes on the operational management of dams, reservoirs and transfer systems is investigated and shown for the Bavarian case studies, namely the potential change in i) hydro-power production for the Upper Isar watershed and ii) low flow augmentation and water transfer rates at the Donau-Main transfer system in Central Franconia. Two overall findings will be presented and discussed in detail: a) the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows, is strongly affected by the choice of the hydrological model. It can be shown that an assessment of the changes in the hydrological cycle is best represented by a complex physically based hydrological model, computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) can give a significant level of trust for selected indicators. b) the major differences in the projected climate forcing stemming from the ensemble of dynamic climate models (GCM/RCM) versus the statistical-stochastical WETTREG2010 approach. While the dynamic ensemble reveals a moderate modification of the hydrological processes in the investigated catchments

  19. Thyroid function in changing weather in a subtropical region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastogi, G K; Sawhney, R C

    1976-08-01

    Serum and 24-hr urine samples were collected on 2 consecutive days during the first week of each month for 1 yr from eight healthy euthyroid men aged 25-37 yr. The means of minimum and maximum environmental temperature for the 30 days period preceding the sample collection represented the temperature for that month. Total serum thyroxine (T4), triiodothyronine (T3), thyrotropin (TSH), and urinary T3 and T4 were measured by specific radioimmunoassays and serum thyroxine-binding globulin (TBG) by the radioligand binding assay. The serum TSH and urinary T3 and T4 responses to 100 mug intravenous TRH were studied in five subjects during summer and again during winter. The serum concentration of these hormones and TBG did not reveal significant variations throughout the year. However, the mean urinary excretion of both T3 and T4 during coldest months (January and February), at 0.97 and 1.95 mug/24 hr, respectively were significantly higher than the corresponding values (T3, 0.48; T4, 1.18 mug/24 hr) during the hottest months (May-July). The TSH, and urinary T3 and T4 responses to identical doses of TRH during summer and winter did not differ significantly. Since urinary T3 and T4 indirectly reflect the prevailing unbound serum levels of these hormones, it is likely that the greater availability of free and biologically active thyroid hormones could help the body to adapt to cold by increasing nonshivering thermogenesis.

  20. [Effect of cupping on hemodynamic levels in the regional sucked tissues in patients with lumbago].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Xiao; Xiao, Xue-Hua; Zhang, Guo-Qing

    2012-10-01

    To observe hemodynamic changes in the local sucked tissue of lower back undergoing negative pressure after cupping in patients with lumbago. Twenty-two lumbago outpatients were recruited in the present study and 32 sucked tissues accepted measurements. The cupping was applied to the tenderpoint of the patients' lower back for 10 min by using a glass-mug (5 cm in diameter). Hemodynamic indexes [peak systolic velocity (PSV), end-diastolic velocity (EDV) and resistance index (RI)] of the sucked skin and subcutaneous tissues at the lower back were detected before and after cupping by using a color Doppler flow imaging. After cupping intervention at the lower back, the PSV [(14.2 +/- 1.8) cm/s] and EDV [(5.5 +/- 0.7) cm/s] levels were increased significantly in comparison with those [(5.9 +/- 0.9) and (1.9 +/- 0.3) cm/s] before cupping (P cupping (0.61 +/- 0.05 vs 0.68 +/- 0.06, P Cupping therapy can increase the peak systolic velocity and end-diastolic velocity and lower vascular resistance of the subcutaneous arterioles in the regional tissue, which may contribute to its effect in relieving lumbago.

  1. DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOOLS TO ASSESS THE LEVEL OF MODERNIZATION OF RUSSIA’S REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariya Aleksandrovna Lastochkina

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The article describes basic design principles of an information-analytical system (IS “Modernization” for calculating and analyzing the levels of modernization in Russia’s regions. The author presents the conclusions obtained from the results of calculations with the use of the IS “Modernization”. The images of the regions obtained with the help of this system reflect their socio-economic advantages, problems, present their comprehensive characteristic, and help to intercompare the territories.

  2. Black gold to green gold: regional energy policy and the rehabilitation of coal in response to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, F. [University of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom). School of Geology

    2009-03-15

    Energy production has come under increasing scrutiny as concerns about energy security and climate change have risen. In the UK changes in government structure and privatisation of the electricity industry have led to the emergence of multi-level governance. This means that decisions on how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity-generating sector should no longer be solely a national policy decision. Previous studies have sought to explore how renewable energy may develop under multi-level governance, but this paper pays attention to a traditional fossil fuel source, coal, which is still an important means of electricity generation. Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel and advocates argue that carbon capture and storage techniques could make coal 'clean', paving the way for a long-term, secure and low emission way to produce energy. This study focuses on the Yorkshire and Humber Region, which has had a long association with coal mining and looks at the implications of this as the region seeks to develop a climate change action plan and an energy strategy within the new regional governance structures. The paper argues that the regional networks developed to address climate change are influenced by existing social power structures and alliances. The region as a territorial structure becomes a useful device in promoting national priorities.

  3. Investigation of the climate-driven periodicity of shallow groundwater level fluctuations in a Central-Eastern European agricultural region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garamhegyi, Tamás; Kovács, József; Pongrácz, Rita; Tanos, Péter; Hatvani, István Gábor

    2018-05-01

    The distribution and amount of groundwater, a crucial source of Earth's drinking and irrigation water, is changing due to climate-change effects. Therefore, it is important to understand groundwater behavior in extreme scenarios, e.g. drought. Shallow groundwater (SGW) level fluctuation under natural conditions displays periodic behavior, i.e. seasonal variation. Thus, the study aims to investigate (1) the periodic behavior of the SGW level time series of an agriculturally important and drought-sensitive region in Central-Eastern Europe - the Carpathian Basin, in the north-eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain, and (2) its relationship to the European atmospheric pressure action centers. Data from 216 SGW wells were studied using wavelet spectrum analysis and wavelet coherence analyses for 1961-2010. Locally, a clear relationship exists between the absence of annual periodic behavior in the SGW level and the periodicity of droughts, as indicated by the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Aridity Index. During the non-periodic intervals, significant drops in groundwater levels (average 0.5 m) were recorded in 89% of the wells. This result links the meteorological variables to the periodic behavior of SGW, and consequently, drought. On a regional scale, Mediterranean cyclones from the Gulf of Genoa (northwest Italy) were found to be a driving factor in the 8-yr periodic behavior of the SGW wells. The research documents an important link between SGW levels and local/regional climate variables or indices, thereby facilitating the necessary adaptation strategies on national and/or regional scales, as these must take into account the predictions of drought-related climatic conditions.

  4. Assessment of the level of development of insurance of agricultural enterprises in Ukrainian regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ostapenko Olga N.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The article considers application of the taxonomic analysis for identifying the level of development of insurance of agricultural enterprises (in case of its voluntary form in Ukrainian regions through calculation of the taxonomy ratio (development level ratio. On the basis of the conducted study the author identifies those regions of Ukraine where the level of development of insurance of agricultural enterprises, in particular, their agricultural products, is characterised with positive dynamics and those regions where the tariff policy of insurance companies needs to be reconsidered. That is why the article justifies a necessity of replacing the existing tariff policy of insurance companies with a more suitable for modern conditions of farming with the aim to ensure, on the one hand, organisation of efficient management of an insurance company and, on the other hand, taking into account interests and requirements of agricultural enterprises, which are reflected in insurance tariffs.

  5. Regional cerebral blood flow changes in patients with internet addiction: Authors' reply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guobing; Shi, Hongcheng

    2016-01-01

    To the comments of Prof. Andreas Otte to our work we reply as follows: As was mentioned by Prof. Andreas Otte, our study was the first study of regional cerebral blood flow changes in patients with internet addiction. Therefore, there was not much previous, established experience to refer to. As an exploration study, it was inevitable that there were some insufficiencies. We feel great appreciation to Prof. Andreas Otte for his comments on our work, which will improve our studying quality in this field in the future. Prof. Andreas Otte inquired in his letter how the regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) was calculated, and was scaled, relatively to the whole brain mean value or to the cerebellar mean value. All rCBF data were scaled relatively to the whole brain, in our study. As for the question in relation to the test level, the P-value of 0.05 was only used when comparing intergroup differences of baseline or clinical information of patients using SPSS, while the P-value of 0.01 was used for the statistical parametric mapping (SPM) t-test. We had tried using the test level of Pfalse-positive results. However, in order to control false-positive errors, we performed intragroup comparisons from rest to adenosine-stressed status firstly by paired t test to identify cerebral regions with obvious rCBF changes because of administration of adenosine. On the basis of these cerebral regions, we subsequently performed a two-sample t test to compare intergroup differences to identify cerebral regions with rCBF that could have attributed to internet addiction. We believed that this "twostep" statistical mode might reduce the probability of falsepositive results to some extent. As for the cluster question in relation to SPM analysis, it seems more problematic and more prone for clusterwise inference to produce false-positive results than voxelwise inference, as mentioned in the paper by Eklund et al (2016). We did not take the two-way ANOVA analysis, instead, we performed the

  6. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mondal

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

  7. Climate change and prairie pothole wetlands: mitigating water-level and hydroperiod effects through upland management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renton, David A.; Mushet, David M.; DeKeyser, Edward S.

    2015-01-01

    Prairie pothole wetlands offer crucial habitat for North America’s waterfowl populations. The wetlands also support an abundance of other species and provide ecological services valued by society. The hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands is dependent on atmospheric interactions. Therefore, changes to the region’s climate can have profound effects on wetland hydrology. The relevant literature related to climate change and upland management effects on prairie pothole wetland water levels and hydroperiods was reviewed. Climate change is widely expected to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole wetlands, as well as the biota and ecological services that the wetlands support. In general, hydrologic model projections that incorporate future climate change scenarios forecast lower water levels in prairie pothole wetlands and longer periods spent in a dry condition, despite potential increases in precipitation. However, the extreme natural variability in climate and hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands necessitates caution when interpreting model results. Recent changes in weather patterns throughout much of the Prairie Pothole Region have been in increased precipitation that results in increased water inputs to wetlands above losses associated with warmer temperatures. However, observed precipitation increases are within the range of natural climate variability and therefore, may not persist. Identifying management techniques with the potential to affect water inputs to prairie pothole wetlands would provide increased options for managers when dealing with the uncertainties associated with a changing climate. Several grassland management techniques (for example, grazing and burning) have the potential to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole by affecting infiltration, evapotranspiration, and snow deposition.

  8. Regional LLRW [low-level radioactive waste] processing alternatives applying the DOE REGINALT systems analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beers, G.H.

    1987-01-01

    The DOE Low-Level Waste Management Progam has developed a computer-based decision support system of models that may be used by nonprogrammers to evaluate a comprehensive approach to commercial low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) management. REGINALT (Regional Waste Management Alternatives Analysis Model) implementation will be described as the model is applied to a hypothetical regional compact for the purpose of examining the technical and economic potential of two waste processing alternaties. Using waste from a typical regional compact, two specific regional waste processing centers will be compared for feasibility. Example 1 will assume will assume that a regional supercompaction facility is being developed for the region. Example 2 will assume that a regional facility with both supercompation and incineration is specified. Both examples will include identical disposal facilities, except that capacity may differ due to variation in volume reduction achieved. The two examples will be compared with regard to volume reduction achieved, estimated occupational exposure for the processing facilities, and life cylcle costs per generated unit waste. A base case will also illustrate current disposal practices. The results of the comparisons will be evaluated, and other steps, if necessary, for additional decision support will be identified

  9. ASPECTS ON THE ACTUAL LEVEL OF EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AT THE SOUTH-WEST REGION OLTENIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHIRCULESCU MARIA FELICIA

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to the complexity of the educational sector, the work is topical, even though over time there have been many concerns regarding its education and development and the correlation between the level of educational development and the level of economic development. The aim of the paper is to analyze the educational development at the level of the South-West Oltenia region over the period 2010-2015, thus using the statistical series for the mentioned timeframe we analyzed the evolution of the number of educational units in the South-West Oltenia region And the evolution of the school population in the South-West Oltenia region. Thus, the objective of the paper is enshrined in the overall objective of Romania, namely to reduce the economic and social development disparities between Romania and other EU Member States. The results of the analysis carried out by the two indicators, the number of educational units in the South-West Oltenia region and the number of the school population at the level of the South-West Oltenia region indicate that the number of educational units in the period 2010-2015 decreased by 4.28% And the number of the school population by 14.67%.

  10. NASA Sea Level Change Portal - It not just another portal site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, T.; Quach, N.; Abercrombie, S. P.; Boening, C.; Brennan, H. P.; Gill, K. M.; Greguska, F. R., III; Jackson, R.; Larour, E. Y.; Shaftel, H.; Tenenbaum, L. F.; Zlotnicki, V.; Moore, B.; Moore, J.; Boeck, A.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (https://sealevel.nasa.gov) is designed as a "one-stop" source for current sea level change information, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. With increasing global temperatures warming the ocean and melting ice sheets and glaciers, there is an immediate need both for accelerating sea level change research and for making this research accessible to scientists in disparate discipline, to the general public, to policy makers and business. The immersive and innovative NASA portal debuted at the 2015 AGU attracts thousands of daily visitors and over 30K followers on Facebook®. Behind its intuitive interface is an extensible architecture that integrates site contents, data for various sources, visualization, horizontal-scale geospatial data analytic technology (called NEXUS), and an interactive 3D simulation platform (called the Virtual Earth System Laboratory). We will present an overview of our NASA portal and some of our architectural decisions along with discussion on our open-source, cloud-based data analytic technology that enables on-the-fly analysis of heterogeneous data.

  11. Image and Substance Failures in Regional Organisations: Causes, Consequences, Learning and Change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Hsuan Chou

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available States often pool their sovereignty, capacity and resources to provide regionally specific public goods, such as security or trade rules, and regional organisations play important roles in international relations as institutions that attempt to secure peace and contribute to achieving other similar global policy goals. We observe failures occurring in these arrangements and activities in two areas: substance and image. To analytically account for this, we distinguish four modes of substance and image change and link these to specific types of failure and (lack of learning. To empirically ground and test our assumptions, we examine instances of image failure in ASEAN (political/security policy and substantive policy failure in EU labour migration policy. In so doing, this article contributes to several different fields of study and concepts that have hitherto rarely engaged with one another: analyses of policy failure from public policy, and regional integration concerns from area studies and international relations. We conclude with suggestions for ways forward to further analyse and understand failures at the international and supranational levels.

  12. [Prescription drug consumption recovery following the co-payment change: Evidence from a regional health service].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, Diego P; Guillén, José J; Torres, Alberto M; Arense, Julián J; López, Ángel; Sánchez, Fernando I

    2015-01-01

    In the past few decades, increasing pharmaceutical expenditures in Spain and other western countries led to the adoption of reforms in order to reduce this trend. The aim of our study was to analyze if reforms concerning the pharmaceutical reimbursement scheme in Spain have been associated with changes in the volume and trend of pharmaceutical consumption. Retrospective observational study. Region of Murcia. Prescription drug in primary care and external consultations. Records of prescribed medicines between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2013. Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time-series of prescription drug consumption. Dispensing of all five therapeutic classes fell immediately after co-payment changes. The segmented regression model suggested that per patient drug consumption in pensioners may have decreased by about 6.76% (95% CI; -8.66% to -5.19%) in the twelve months after the reform, compared with the absence of such a policy. Furthermore the slope of the series of consumption increased from 6.08 (P<.001) to 12.17 (P<.019). The implementation of copayment policies could be associated with a significant decrease in the level of prescribed drug use in Murcia Region, but this effect seems to have been only temporary in the five therapeutic groups analyzed, since almost simultaneously there has been an increase in the growth trend. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. Carniola oživljena: Changing Practice in Citing Slovenian Regions in English Texts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald F. Reindl

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The past century has witnessed a striking change in the representation of Slovenia’s traditional regions in English texts. After the Second World War, Slovenians progressively replaced the traditional English exonyms for these regions with endonyms in English texts. This trend was accompanied by published works and teaching practice that increasingly insisted on the exclusive use of endonyms in English texts. However, following the dissolution of Yugoslavia and Slovenian independence, there has been a return to the traditional English exonyms. This article maps this changing practice through selected English texts from the past three centuries. It also addresses a number of pitfalls connected with the use of endonyms as well as persistent questions regarding the use of endonyms. Because English is a global language, the choices made by those writing in English directly affect how Slovenia and Slovenian identity are represented at the global level. As such, the conclusions of this paper apply directly to Slovenian-English translation practice and indirectly to Slovenian literature and culture conveyed through English translation.

  14. Gamma decay of the compound state and change of structure of the 124Te excited levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sukhovoj, A.M.; Khitrov, V.A.

    2008-01-01

    Independent analysis of a large amount of data on the spectrum of gamma rays of the radiative capture of thermal neutrons in 123 Te (Σ(i γ E γ )/B n = 0.49) obtained in Rez made it possible to obtain new and reliable information on the dependence of sums of radiative strength functions of dipole gamma transitions on the energy of levels excited by them. These data, as does the level density in 124 Te, demonstrate a strong change of structure of the nucleus practically for the whole region of the levels excited by a captured neutron. As in the earlier studied nuclei (using data on the intensities of two-step cascades), it is possible to reproduce the stated parameters of the gamma-decay process to the accuracy of experiment only by the models directly taking into account the coexistence and interaction of the usual and superfluid component of the nuclear matter

  15. Aura OMI observations of regional SO2 and NO2 pollution changes from 2005 to 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Krotkov

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI onboard NASA's Aura satellite has been providing global observations of the ozone layer and key atmospheric pollutant gases, such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2 and sulfur dioxide (SO2, since October 2004. The data products from the same instrument provide consistent spatial and temporal coverage and permit the study of anthropogenic and natural emissions on local-to-global scales. In this paper, we examine changes in SO2 and NO2 over some of the world's most polluted industrialized regions during the first decade of OMI observations. In terms of regional pollution changes, we see both upward and downward trends, sometimes in opposite directions for NO2 and SO2, for different study areas. The trends are, for the most part, associated with economic and/or technological changes in energy use, as well as regional regulatory policies. Over the eastern US, both NO2 and SO2 levels decreased dramatically from 2005 to 2015, by more than 40 and 80 %, respectively, as a result of both technological improvements and stricter regulations of emissions. OMI confirmed large reductions in SO2 over eastern Europe's largest coal-fired power plants after installation of flue gas desulfurization devices. The North China Plain has the world's most severe SO2 pollution, but a decreasing trend has been observed since 2011, with about a 50 % reduction in 2012–2015, due to an economic slowdown and government efforts to restrain emissions from the power and industrial sectors. In contrast, India's SO2 and NO2 levels from coal power plants and smelters are growing at a fast pace, increasing by more than 100 and 50 %, respectively, from 2005 to 2015. Several SO2 hot spots observed over the Persian Gulf are probably related to oil and gas operations and indicate a possible underestimation of emissions from these sources in bottom-up emission inventories. Overall, OMI observations have proved valuable in documenting rapid changes in air

  16. Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

  17. Region based route planning - Multi-abstraction route planning based on intermediate level vision processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doshi, Rajkumar S.; Lam, Raymond; White, James E.

    1989-01-01

    Intermediate and high level processing operations are performed on vision data for the organization of images into more meaningful, higher-level topological representations by means of a region-based route planner (RBRP). The RBRP operates in terrain scenarios where some or most of the terrain is occluded, proceeding without a priori maps on the basis of two-dimensional representations and gradient-and-roughness information. Route planning is accomplished by three successive abstractions and yields a detailed point-by-point path by searching only within the boundaries of relatively small regions.

  18. DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS AS AN EFFECTIVE MODEL AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL (ON THE EXAMPLE REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leysan Kashapova

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article questions of a choice of flexible instruments of government support to territories ensure their economic stability and economic growth. The formation of institutions is one of such approaches of profiling and of the results of operations which depends on the degree of development of territories. You have made the necessary relationship of selection and formation of development institutions from the strategic development priorities of the region We proved that effective implementation and activities of development institutions depends on the achievement of strategic targets set at the regional level and the municipal level.

  19. Fifty Years of A-Level Mathematics: Have Standards Changed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Ian; Wheadon, Chris; Humphries, Sara; Inglis, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Advanced-level (A-level) mathematics is a high-profile qualification taken by many school leavers in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and around the world as preparation for university study. Concern has been expressed in these countries that standards in A-level mathematics have declined over time, and that school leavers enter university or the…

  20. Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlein, P.J.; Edwards, M.E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Shafer, Sarah; Anderson, P.M.; Brubaker, L. B; Lozhkin, A. V

    2015-01-01

    Arctic land-cover changes induced by recent global climate change (e.g., expansion of woody vegetation into tundra and effects of permafrost degradation) are expected to generate further feedbacks to the climate system. Past changes can be used to assess our understanding of feedback mechanisms through a combination of process modeling and paleo-observations. The subcontinental region of Beringia (northeastern Siberia, Alaska, and northwestern Canada) was largely ice-free at the peak of deglacial warming and experienced both major vegetation change and loss of permafrost when many arctic regions were still ice covered. The evolution of Beringian climate at this time was largely driven by global features, such as the amplified seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere insolation and changes in global ice volume and atmospheric composition, but changes in regional land-surface controls, such as the widespread development of thaw lakes, the replacement of tundra by deciduous forest or woodland, and the flooding of the Bering–Chukchi land bridge, were probably also important. We examined the sensitivity of Beringia's early Holocene climate to these regional-scale controls using a regional climate model (RegCM). Lateral and oceanic boundary conditions were provided by global climate simulations conducted using the GENESIS V2.01 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a mixed-layer ocean. We carried out two present-day simulations of regional climate – one with modern and one with 11 ka geography – plus another simulation for 6 ka. In addition, we performed five ~ 11 ka climate simulations, each driven by the same global AGCM boundary conditions: (i) 11 ka Control, which represents conditions just prior to the major transitions (exposed land bridge, no thaw lakes or wetlands, widespread tundra vegetation), (ii) sea-level rise, which employed present-day continental outlines, (iii) vegetation change, with deciduous needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf boreal

  1. Kinematical Comparison of the 200 m Backstroke Turns between National and Regional Level Swimmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Veiga

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this investigation were to determine the evolution of selected turn variables during competitive backstroke races and to compare these kinematic variables between two different levels of swimmers. Sixteen national and regional level male swimmers participant in the 200 m backstroke event at the Spanish Swimming Championships in short course (25 m were selected to analyze their turn performances. The individual distances method with two-dimensional Direct Linear Transformation (2D-DLT algorithms was used to perform race analyses. National level swimmers presented a shorter “turn time”, a longer “distance in”, a faster “underwater velocity” and “normalized underwater velocity”, and a faster “stroking velocity” than regional level swimmers, whereas no significant differences were detected between levels for the “underwater distance”. National level swimmers maintained similar “turn times” over the event and increased “underwater velocity” and “normalized underwater velocity” in the last (seventh turn segment, whereas regional level swimmers increased “turn time” in the last half of the race. For both national and regional level swimmers, turn “underwater distance” during the last three turns of the race was significantly shorter while no significant differences in distance into the wall occurred throughout the race. The skill level of the swimmers has an impact on the competitive backstroke turn segments. In a 200 m event, the underwater velocity should be maximized to maintain turn proficiency, whereas turn distance must be subordinated to the average velocity.

  2. Levels and patterns of nucleotide variation in domestication QTL regions on rice chromosome 3 suggest lineage-specific selection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianfa Xie

    Full Text Available Oryza sativa or Asian cultivated rice is one of the major cereal grass species domesticated for human food use during the Neolithic. Domestication of this species from the wild grass Oryza rufipogon was accompanied by changes in several traits, including seed shattering, percent seed set, tillering, grain weight, and flowering time. Quantitative trait locus (QTL mapping has identified three genomic regions in chromosome 3 that appear to be associated with these traits. We would like to study whether these regions show signatures of selection and whether the same genetic basis underlies the domestication of different rice varieties. Fragments of 88 genes spanning these three genomic regions were sequenced from multiple accessions of two major varietal groups in O. sativa--indica and tropical japonica--as well as the ancestral wild rice species O. rufipogon. In tropical japonica, the levels of nucleotide variation in these three QTL regions are significantly lower compared to genome-wide levels, and coalescent simulations based on a complex demographic model of rice domestication indicate that these patterns are consistent with selection. In contrast, there is no significant reduction in nucleotide diversity in the homologous regions in indica rice. These results suggest that there are differences in the genetic and selective basis for domestication between these two Asian rice varietal groups.

  3. Comprehensive comparison of preselected regions for a high level radioactive waste repository: a subjective quantitative evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ju; Zong Zihua; Jin Yuanxin; Zhu Pengfei; Su Rui; Chen Weiming

    2012-01-01

    Based on the comprehensive features of the 6 preselected regions (Northwest China, Southwest China East China, South China, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang regions) for China's high level radioactive waste repository, this paper uses the subjective quantitative method to evaluate the weight of each site selection criterion and provides the scores of each region. The results shows that the future natural changes and the hydrogeological conditions are considered as the most important natural siting criteria, while the social impact and human activities are the most important social siting criteria. According to the scores, the priority order of the regions are Northwest China, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, South China, East China, Southwest China. On the whole, the scores of' the regions in western China (Northwest China, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia) are higher than those in eastern China (South China, East China Southwest China), which obviously shows that the participated experts considers that the disposal of high level waste in west China is more favorable than in east China. (authors)

  4. Regional cerebral metabolic changes after acupuncture by FDG PET: Effects and methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guan, Y.H.; Zuo, C.T.; Zhao, J.; Lin, X.T.; Li, J.; Dong, J.C.

    2002-01-01

    patients had manifested greater response in their lesions than their normal regions of the two tested groups after acupuncture treatment, the heighten range is 14%-40%. The normal regions of the cerebrovascular ischemia patients groups show similar changes with the normal groups after acupuncture. The cerebrovascular ischemic patients had manifested greater response in their lesions than in their normal regions after acupuncture treatment. Conclusions: The study of One-day method after acupuncture using FDG PET was established. Our study showed that the regulatory effects of acupuncture on the central nervous system influence the brain at multiple-sections, multiple-directions and multiple-levels of brain function. However, a greater change was observed at the lesions of the cerebrovascular ischemic patients and similar changes at the other normal regions under the same PET protocol, this conforms to the holistic and bi-directions regulatory laws of acupuncture. In this study, the therapeutic effects of acupuncture was relied on nervous system

  5. Operational and regulatory impacts of regional management on transportation of commercial low-level radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirley, C.G.; Wilmot, E.L.; Shepherd, E.W.

    1981-09-01

    The 96th Congress of the United States, as part of the Low-level Radioactive Waste Policy Act of 1980 (Public Law 96-573), instructed the Secretary of the Department of Energy (DOE) to prepare a report on the current US low-level waste management situation and the conditions and requirements for management on a regional basis. The Transportation Technology Center has compared the transportation requirement and regional management scenarios for commercial low-level radioactive waste in support of the DOE response to this instruction. Using 1979 low-level waste volumes shipped to commercial burial grounds and six management regions postulated by DOE, transportation requirements were estimated and compared for the two management scenarios in terms of cumulative shipping distance and transportation cost. Effects of these results on the demand for transportation services and equipment and on population risks were considered. Finally, current regulatory issues and the potential effects of regional management on regulation of low-level waste transportation were reviewed

  6. Lake seasonality across the Tibetan Plateau and their varying relationship with regional mass changes and local hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yanbin; Yao, Tandong; Yang, Kun; Sheng, Yongwei; Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Yi, Shuang; Bird, Broxton W.; Zhang, Xiaowen; Zhu, La; Zhang, Guoqing

    2017-01-01

    The recent growth and deepening of inland lakes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may be a salient indicator of the consequences of climate change. The seasonal dynamics of these lakes is poorly understood despite this being potentially crucial for disentangling contributions from glacier melt and precipitation, which are all sensitive to climate, to lake water budget. Using in situ observations, satellite altimetry and gravimetry data, we identified two patterns of lake level seasonality. In the central, northern, and northeastern TP, lake levels are characterized by considerable increases during warm seasons and decreases during cold seasons, which is consistent with regional mass changes related to monsoon precipitation and evaporation. In the northwestern TP, however, lake levels exhibit dramatic increases during both warm and cold seasons, which deviate from regional mass changes. This appears to be more connected with high spring snowfall and large summer glacier melt. The variable lake level response to different drivers indicates heterogeneous sensitivity to climate change between the northwestern TP and other regions.

  7. Sensitivity of GRACE-derived estimates of groundwater-level changes in southern Ontario, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachborn, Ellen; Berg, Aaron; Levison, Jana; Ambadan, Jaison Thomas

    2017-12-01

    Amidst changing climates, understanding the world's water resources is of increasing importance. In Ontario, Canada, low water conditions are currently assessed using only precipitation and watershed-based stream gauges by the Conservation Authorities in Ontario and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Regional groundwater-storage changes in Ontario are not currently measured using satellite data by research institutes. In this study, contributions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are compared to a hydrogeological database covering southern Ontario from 2003 to 2013, to determine the suitability of GRACE total water storage estimates for monitoring groundwater storage in this location. Terrestrial water storage data from GRACE were used to determine monthly groundwater storage (GWS) anomaly values. GWS values were also determined by multiplying groundwater-level elevations (from the Provincial Groundwater Monitoring Network wells) by specific yield. Comparisons of GRACE-derived GWS to well-based GWS data determined that GRACE is sufficiently sensitive to obtain a meaningful signal in southern Ontario. Results show that GWS values produced by GRACE are useful for identifying regional changes in groundwater storage in areas with limited available hydrogeological characterization data. Results also indicate that GRACE may have an ability to forecast changes in groundwater storage, which will become useful when monitoring climate shifts in the near future.

  8. High resolution mapping of modafinil induced changes in glutamate level in rat brain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Haris

    Full Text Available Modafinil is marketed in the United States for the treatment of narcolepsy and daytime somnolence due to shift-work or sleep apnea. Investigations of this drug in the treatment of cocaine and nicotine dependence in addition to disorders of executive function are also underway. Modafinil has been known to increase glutamate levels in rat brain models. Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1HMRS has been commonly used to detect the glutamate (Glu changes in vivo. In this study, we used a recently described glutamate chemical exchange saturation transfer (GluCEST imaging technique to measure Modafinil induced regional Glu changes in rat brain and compared the results with Glu concentration measured by single voxel 1HMRS. No increases in either GluCEST maps or 1HMRS were observed after Modafinil injection over a period of 5 hours. However, a significant increase in GluCEST (19 ± 4.4% was observed 24 hours post Modafinil administration, which is consistent with results from previous biochemical studies. This change was not consistently seen with 1HMRS. GluCEST mapping allows regional cerebral Glu changes to be measured and may provide a useful clinical biomarker of Modafinil effects for the management of patients with sleep disorders and addiction.

  9. Changes in Rongbuk lake and Imja lake in the Everest region of Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, W.; Doko, T.; Liu, C.; Ichinose, T.; Fukui, H.; Feng, Q.; Gou, P.

    2014-12-01

    The Himalaya holds the world record in terms of range and elevation. It is one of the most extensively glacierized regions in the world except the Polar Regions. The Himalaya is a region sensitive to climate change. Changes in the glacial regime are indicators of global climate changes. Since the second half of the last century, most Himalayan glaciers have melted due to climate change. These changes directly affected the changes of glacial lakes in the Himalayan region due to the glacier retreat. New glacial lakes are formed, and a number of them have expanded in the Everest region of the Himalayas. This paper focuses on the two glacial lakes which are Imja Lake, located at the southern slope, and Rongbuk Lake, located at the northern slope in the Mt. Everest region, Himalaya to present the spatio-temporal changes from 1976 to 2008. Topographical conditions between two lakes were different (Kruskal-Wallis test, p < 0.05). Rongbuk Lake was located at 623 m higher than Imja Lake, and radiation of Rongbuk Lake was higher than the Imja Lake. Although size of Imja Lake was larger than the Rongbuk Lake in 2008, the growth speed of Rongbuk Lake was accelerating since 2000 and exceeds Imja Lake in 2000-2008. This trend of expansion of Rongbuk Lake is anticipated to be continued in the 21st century. Rongbuk Lake would be the biggest potential risk of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) at the Everest region of Himalaya in the future.

  10. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J.; Ulber, B.; Vidal, S.; Eickermann, M.

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  11. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J; Ulber, B; Vidal, S; Eickermann, M

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  12. Local climate change capacity : comparing four municipalities in the Dutch Twente region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Vegt, Arjen; Hoppe, Thomas; Stegmaier, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is seen as a key societal challenge to cities and regions. City governments design and implement policies to cope with climate change: on the one hand by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and spurring low carbon transition; on the other hand by adapting to climate change, hence

  13. Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Kuntal; McClean, Colin J; Büker, Patrick; Hartley, Sue E; Hill, Jane K

    2017-09-01

    Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security. In this paper, we focus on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and we employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level (~ 18 × 18 km cell resolution) under projected future (2050) climate change (IPCC RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, using three GCMs: BCC-CSM1.1, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and HadGEM2-ES). We quantify the occurrence of rice (whether or not rainfed rice is commonly grown, using CEMs) and rice extent (area under cultivation, using BRTs) during the summer monsoon in relation to four climate variables that affect rice growth and yield namely ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration ( PER ), maximum and minimum temperatures ( T max and T min ), and total rainfall during harvesting. Our models described the occurrence and extent of rice very well (CEMs for occurrence, ensemble AUC = 0.92; BRTs for extent, Pearson's r = 0.87). PER was the most important predictor of rainfed rice occurrence, and it was positively related to rainfed rice area, but all four climate variables were important for determining the extent of rice cultivation. Our models project that 15%-40% of current rainfed rice growing areas will be at risk (i.e. decline in climate suitability or become completely unsuitable). However, our models project considerable variation across India in the impact of future climate change: eastern and northern India are the locations most at risk, but parts of central and western India may benefit from increased

  14. Holocene climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenxiang; Niu, Jie; Ming, Qingzhong; Shi, Zhengtao; Lei, Guoliang; Huang, Linpei; Long, Xian'e.; Chang, Fengqin

    2018-05-01

    Climatic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon (ASWM) during the Holocene have become a topic of recent studies. It is important to understand the patterns and causes of Holocene climatic changes and their relationship with global changes. Based on the climate proxies and wavelet analysis of Lugu Lake in the ASWM region, the climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the ASWM region during the Holocene have been reconstructed with a high-precision chronology. The results indicate the intensification of ASWM began to increase with Northern Hemisphere low-latitude solar insolation (LSI) and solar activity during the early Holocene, and gradually decreased during the late Holocene, exhibiting an apparent synchrony with numerous records of ASWM region. Meanwhile, an apparent 1000-a quasi-periodic signal is present in the environment proxies, and it demonstrates that the environmental change in the ASWM region has been driven mainly by LSI and solar activity.

  15. An inter-decadal increase in summer sea level pressure over the Mongolian region around the early 1990s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haiyan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Li, Xiuzhen; Chen, Ruidan

    2018-05-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon is affected by processes in the mid-high latitudes in addition to various tropical and subtropical systems. The present study investigates the summer sea level pressure (SLP) variability over northern East Asia (NEA) and emphasizes the closed active center over the Mongolian region. It is found that the seasonal mean Mongolian SLP (MSLP) anomaly is closely connected with the variability of summertime regional synoptic extra-tropical cyclones on longer time scales. A significant inter-decadal increase in the MSLP around the early 1990s has been detected, which is accompanied by a weakening in the activity of regional extra-tropical cyclones. Recent warming over NEA may have a contribution to the inter-decadal change, which features evidently meridional inhomogeneity around 45°N. The inhomogeneous air temperature anomaly distribution results in decreased vertical wind shear, reduced atmospheric baroclinicity over the Mongolian region, and thus inactive regional cyclones and increased MSLP in the latter decade. The associated temperature anomaly distribution may be partly attributed to regional inhomogeneity in cloud and radiation anomalies, and it is further maintained by two positive feedback mechanisms associated with atmospheric internal processes: one via adiabatic heating and the other via horizontal temperature advection.

  16. Regional alterations of brain biogenic amines and GABA/glutamate levels in rats following chronic lead exposure during neonatal development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shailesh Kumar, M V; Desiraju, T [National Inst. of Mental Health and Neuro Sciences, Bangalore (India). Dept. of Neurophysiology

    1990-06-01

    Wistar rat pups were administered either a high dose of lead acetate (400 {mu}g lead-g body weight/day) or a low dose (100 {mu}g lead/g body weight/day) by gastric intubation, from 2 days through 60 days of age. The rats on both these doses exhibited statistically significant decreases in body and brain weights throughout the lead treatment period. A group of rats on high dose was also rehabilitated by discontinuing the lead from 60 days of age. In these rats, at 160 days of age, the body weight but not the brain weight recovered to normal levels. During the lead intake, the rats on high dose revealed significant elevations in the levels of noradrenaline (NA) in the hippocampus (HI), cerebellum (CE), hypothalamus (HY), brainstem (BS), and accumbens-striatum (SA). The elevated levels in all the above regions except in the HY persisted even after rehabilitation. The dopamine (DA) levels changed significantly in opposite directions in HY (elevation) and BS (reduction) during the lead treatment, and the HY recovered after rehabilitation. Under lead, the serotonin (5HT) levels were elevated significantly in the HI, BS and MC (motor cortex), while after rehabilitation the abnormality persisted only in the MC. Low dose lead treatment was also effective on the same areas of brain. In the low dose group, estimation of the levels of GABA and glutamate were also done, and a significant decrease of GABA in CE and glutamate in MC was observed. The differences observed in the neurotoxic effects (none or significant) of lead in the different regions for each of the transmitters (NA, DA, 5HT) supports the interesting conclusion that the vulnerability of the axon terminals of any given type is dependent on some regional factors, although the projections of the different regions originate from an apparently similar category of neurons in the brain stem. (orig.).

  17. Drivers of Change in a 7300-Year Holocene Diatom Record from the Hemi-Boreal Region of Ontario, Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristen K Beck

    Full Text Available A Holocene lake sediment record spanning the past 7300 years from Wishart Lake in the Turkey Lakes Watershed in the Hemi-Boreal of central Ontario, Canada, was used to evaluate the potential drivers of long-term change in diatom assemblages at this site. An analysis of diatom assemblages found that benthic and epiphytic taxa dominated the mid-Holocene (7300-4000 cal yr BP, indicating shallow, oligotrophic, circum-neutral conditions, with macrophytes present. A significant shift in diatom assemblages towards more planktonic species (mainly Cyclotella sensu lato, but also several species of Aulacoseira, and Tabellaria flocculosa occurred ~4000 cal yr BP. This change likely reflects an increase in lake level, coincident with the onset of a more strongly positive moisture balance following the drier climates of the middle Holocene, established by numerous regional paleoclimate records. Pollen-inferred regional changes in vegetation around 4000 yrs BP, including an increase in Betula and other mesic taxa, may have also promoted changes in diatom assemblages through watershed processes mediated by the chemistry of runoff. A more recent significant change in limnological conditions is marked by further increases in Cyclotella sensu lato beginning in the late 19th century, synchronous with the Ambrosia pollen rise and increases in sediment bulk density, signaling regional and local land clearance at the time of Euro-Canadian settlement (1880 AD. In contrast to the mid-Holocene increase in planktonic diatoms, the modern increase in Cyclotella sensu lato likely indicates a response to land use and vegetation change, and erosion from the watershed, rather than a further increase in water level. The results from Wishart Lake illustrate the close connection between paleoclimate change, regional vegetation, watershed processes, and diatom assemblages and also provides insight into the controls on abundance of Cyclotella sensu lato, a diatom taxonomic group

  18. Snapshot Views of the Romanian Economy on Regional Level Using Input-Output Methodology

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    BORÓKA-JÚLIA BÍRÓ

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Our present paper proposes to give snapshot views on the status-quo of the Romanian economy at the level of development regions. From a methodological perspective, the study is based on the construction of an aggregated national Input-Output table from the more detailed one of the National Institute of Statistics, followed by the derivation of regional tables using the non-survey GRIT technique. Quantitative sectoral interrelationships are going to be analysed based on multipliers, backward and forward linkages in order to identify key sectors within regional economies. This could serve as a baseline for assessing the impact of several policies of the European Union on the Romanian economy, such as the Cohesion Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy. The lower territorial approach – i.e. the construction of regional Input-Output models – used within the present study is in accordance with the European Union’s NUTS2 level policy design and planning philosophy on the one hand. On the other hand, this analytic direction makes possible the use of the results as a base for regional economic development strategy design, highlighting structural specificities and discrepancies among regions of the same country.

  19. Experience of measuring the level of victimization of the population of Nizhniy Novgorod region

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    Anna A. Glukhova

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective basing on the data from empirical sociological study to identify the level of latency and victimization of the population of Nizhny Novgorod region. Methods general scientific analysis systemicstructural approach to the analysis of object of research comparativelegal as well as logical methods and specific scientific method survey ndash questionnaires and interviews. nbsp Results qualitative and quantitative analysis is performed of the overall situation referring to unrecorded crime latent crime committed on the territory of Nizhny Novgorod city and Nizhny Novgorod oblast as well as comparative analysis of the level of latent crime in the city and region by the types and trends of criminal activities the main reasons are identified for refusal the victims to appeal to police in Nizhny Novgorod and Nizhny Novgorod oblast recommendations and proposals are elaborated of the work of territorial bodies of the Ministry of Domestic Affairs to the aim of reducing the level of latent crime. Scientific novelty for the first time on the basis of data obtained during a sociological survey the crime situation on the territory of Nizhny Novgorod region is discussed revealing the actual level of latent delinquency and proposals and practical recommendations are formulated for the adjustment of the work of territorial bodies of the Ministry of Domestic Affairs to the aim of reducing the level of latent crime. Practical significance basing on the research the recommendations are to improve the work of territorial bodies of the Ministry of Domestic Affairs to the aim of reducing the level of latent crime.

  20. Holocene relative sea-level changes from North America and the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Benjamin; Engelhart, Simon; Vacchi, Matteo; Khan, Nicole; Peltier, Dick; Roy, Keven

    2014-05-01

    Reconstructions of Holocene relative sea level (RSL) are important for identifying the ice equivalent meltwater contribution to sea-level change during deglaciation. Holocene RSL reconstructions from near, intermediate and far field regions enable the assessment of earth and ice parameters of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models. RSL reconstructions provide data for estimating rates of spatially variable and ongoing vertical land motion; a requirement for understanding the variation in modern and late Holocene sea level as recorded by instrumental and proxy records. Here we explain the methodology employed to reconstruct former sea levels, which follows the practice of the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP). We produce sea level index points from the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of North America and the Caribbean. Index points are defined as the most reliable observations of former sea levels. They consist of an estimate of X (age) and Y (the position of former RSL). Where a suite of index points are developed for a locality or region, they describe changes in RSL through time and estimate rates of change. A valid index point must meet the following four criteria; (1) location of the sample is known; (2) the altitude of the sample (and the error associated with measuring that altitude) is known; (3) the indicative meaning (the relationship between the sample and a tide level) is estimated; and (4) the age of the sample, which is commonly radiocarbon dated is calibrated to sidereal years using the latest calibration curves. In total databases have over 2000 sea-level index points from formerly ice covered, uplifting regions of Canada, to the region of forebulge collapse along the subsiding mid-Atlantic and mid-Pacific coastlines of the United States, to the tropical regions of the Caribbean. Recent analyses of these new published databases have led to a further refinement of the most recent of the ICE-NG (VMX) series of global models of GIA. The records